Global Electric Circuit Implications of Total Current Measurements over Electrified Clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Douglas M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.

2009-01-01

We determined total conduction (Wilson) currents and flash rates for 850 overflights of electrified clouds spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, with and without lightning, and with positive and negative Wilson currents. We combined these individual storm overflight statistics with global diurnal lightning variation data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) to estimate the thunderstorm and electrified shower cloud contributions to the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit. The contributions to the global electric circuit from lightning producing clouds are estimated by taking the mean current per flash derived from the overflight data for land and ocean overflights and combining it with the global lightning rates (for land and ocean) and their diurnal variation derived from the LIS/OTD data. We estimate the contribution of non-lightning producing electrified clouds by assuming several different diurnal variations and total non-electrified storm counts to produce estimates of the total storm currents (lightning and non-lightning producing storms). The storm counts and diurnal variations are constrained so that the resultant total current diurnal variation equals the diurnal variation in the fair weather electric field (+/-15%). These assumptions, combined with the airborne and satellite data, suggest that the total mean current in the global electric circuit ranges from 2.0 to 2.7 kA, which is greater than estimates made by others using other methods.

Total pressing Indonesian gas development, exports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

Total is on track to become Indonesia's leading gas exporter by the turn of the century. Total's aggressive development of its Mahakam Delta acreage in East Kalimantan is intended to keep pace with growing liquefied natural gas demand, mainly from Japan but also increasingly from South Korea and Taiwan. A frantic scramble is under way among natural gas suppliers in the Pacific Rim region, particularly those with current LNG export facilities, to accommodate projections of soaring natural gas demand in the region. Accordingly, Total's Indonesian gas production goal is the centerpiece of a larger strategy to become a major player in the Far East Asia gas scene. Its goals also fall in line with Indonesia's. Facing flat or declining oil production while domestic oil demand continues to soar along with a rapidly growing economy, Indonesia is heeding some studies that project the country could become a net oil importer by the turn of the century. The paper describes Total's Far East strategy, the Mahakam acreage which it operates, the shift to gas development, added discoveries, future development, project spending levels, and LNG export capacity

Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

OpenAIRE

Browning, Martin

1999-01-01

In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

Robust total energy demand estimation with a hybrid Variable Neighborhood Search – Extreme Learning Machine algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sánchez-Oro, J.; Duarte, A.; Salcedo-Sanz, S.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The total energy demand in Spain is estimated with a Variable Neighborhood algorithm. • Socio-economic variables are used, and one year ahead prediction horizon is considered. • Improvement of the prediction with an Extreme Learning Machine network is considered. • Experiments are carried out in real data for the case of Spain. - Abstract: Energy demand prediction is an important problem whose solution is evaluated by policy makers in order to take key decisions affecting the economy of a country. A number of previous approaches to improve the quality of this estimation have been proposed in the last decade, the majority of them applying different machine learning techniques. In this paper, the performance of a robust hybrid approach, composed of a Variable Neighborhood Search algorithm and a new class of neural network called Extreme Learning Machine, is discussed. The Variable Neighborhood Search algorithm is focused on obtaining the most relevant features among the set of initial ones, by including an exponential prediction model. While previous approaches consider that the number of macroeconomic variables used for prediction is a parameter of the algorithm (i.e., it is fixed a priori), the proposed Variable Neighborhood Search method optimizes both: the number of variables and the best ones. After this first step of feature selection, an Extreme Learning Machine network is applied to obtain the final energy demand prediction. Experiments in a real case of energy demand estimation in Spain show the excellent performance of the proposed approach. In particular, the whole method obtains an estimation of the energy demand with an error lower than 2%, even when considering the crisis years, which are a real challenge.

The long-term supply/demand trend of world energy and the current oil situation in the Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okamoto, Hiroyuki

1996-01-01

Total world primary energy consumption excluding the FSU increased by 2.9% in 1995, which is somewhat above the 10 year average rate of 2.4%. This reflected strong economic growth in most parts of the world. The increase in demand confirmed the recovery of the link between the economic growth and consumption of primary energy, which broke down in the period of oil crises. Oil demand in the Asian Emerging Market Economies has continued to be very strong. Oil demand has doubled in a decade in this region and is now one sixth of world consumption. Malaysia was the fastest growing oil market in the world in 1995 at 15.5%. In volume terms, S. Korea grew the most in the world by 170,000 b/d, closely followed by China and India. Because of the fast growing oil demand, many energy economists expect a tight supply situation in the Asian oil market in the early 21st Century. However, recent technological developments would be able to supply crude oil appropriate for an increase in oil demand. (author)

Natural-gas supply-and-demand problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatamian, H.

1998-01-01

World natural-gas consumption quadrupled in the 30 years from 1966 to 1996, and natural gas now provides 22% of the total world energy demand. The security of natural-gas supply is paramount and rests with the suppliers and the consumers. This paper gives an overview of world natural-gas supply and demand and examines the main supply problems. The most important nonpredictable variables in natural-gas supply are worldwide gas price and political stability, particularly in regions with high reserves. Other important considerations are the cost of development/processing and the transport of natural gas to market, which can be difficult to maintain if pipelines pass through areas of political instability. Another problem is that many countries lack the infrastructure and capital for effective development of their natural-gas industry. Unlike oil, the cost of transportation of natural gas is very high, and, surprisingly, only approximately 16% of the total world production currently is traded internationally

Current status and prospects for Kepco's steaming coal demand and supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, E.W.

1991-01-01

Under the series of Korean Government 5 year economic development plans since 1962, energy consumption in Korea has increased at a rapid pace and industrialization in Korea has been accelerated. As far as coal imports are concerned, coking coal was first imported to Korea in the early 1970s for the first steelworks. Little interest was shown in steaming coal until the early 1970s owing to the cheaper imported oil. People became interested in steaming coal after the first oil crisis in 1973 and import began in 1980 for cement and other industrial uses. In general, electricity demand is increasing far more rapidly than energy consumption. The initial construction of two 560 megawatt power plants using bituminous coal began in 1978 and was completed in 1982. The maiden cargo of bituminous coal for power generation arrived in Korea that year and coal import has been increasing at a rapid rate since then to keep pace with increased consumption. As there are no indigenous bituminous coal resources in Korea and we must depend entirely on overseas coal for our needs to fuel power plants, stable securing of coal is very important. This paper explains the current status and prospects for KEPCOs (Korean Electric Power Corporation) coal demand and supply

Seed demand and supply in eastern and northern Uganda ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Mo

Increased farmer demand for a new variety (as opposed to the desire of ... The study highlighted the need for decisions making on seed interventions to be based ... and a field study of farmers' current practices and constraints ... A total of 10 households evenly .... For seed interventions to succeed, an understanding of the.

Uranium 1999. Resources, production and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

In recent years, the world uranium market has been characterised by an imbalance between demand and supply and persistently depressed uranium prices. World uranium production currently satisfies between 55 and 60 per cent of the total reactor-related requirements, while the rest of the demand is met by secondary sources including the conversion of excess defence material and stockpiles, primarily from Eastern Europe. Although the future availability of these secondary sources remains unclear, projected low-cost production capability is expected to satisfy a considerable part of demand through to 2015. Information in this report provides insights into changes expected in uranium supply and demand over the next 15 years. The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is the foremost world reference on uranium. It is based on official information from 49 countries and includes compilations of statistics on resources, exploration, production and demand as of 1 January 1999. It provides substantial new information from all of the major uranium producing centres in Africa, Australia, Eastern Europe, North America and the New Independent States. It also contains an international expert analysis of industry statistics and world-wide projections of nuclear energy growth, uranium requirements and uranium supply. (authors)

UK Nuclear Workforce Demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, John

2017-01-01

UK Nuclear Sites: DECOMMISSIONING - 26 Magnox Reactors, 2 Fast Reactors; OPERATIONAL - 14 AGRs, 1 PWR; 9.6 GWe Total Capacity. Nuclear Workforce Demand • Total workforce demand is expected to grow from ~88,000 in 2017 to ~101,000 in 2021 • Average “inflow” is ~7,000 FTEs per annum • 22% of the workforce is female (28% in civil, 12% in defence) • 81% generic skills, 18% nuclear skills, 1% subject matter experts • 3300 trainees total in SLCs and Defence Enterprise (16% graduate trainees) • At peak demand on Civils Construction, over 4,000 workers will be required on each nuclear new build site • Manufacturing workforce is expected to rise from around 4,000 in 2014 to 8,500 at the peak of onsite activity in 2025

The Impact of the Current Economic Crisis on the Demand for Higher Education: An Analysis of Spanish Distance Education Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Reina-Paz, María Dolores; Rodríguez-Oromendía, Ainhoa; Sevilla-Sevilla, Claudia

2012-01-01

Spain is currently experiencing a difficult economic situation, and in recent years a significant change has been observed in the behavior of the demand for educational programs as a result of this situation. Recent studies reveal a change in student demand that does not have the same effect on all academic institutions. Bearing this behavior in…

Several peaks of total current in Trichel pulse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolotov, O.; Golota, V.; Kadolin, B.; Mankovskyi, S.; Ostroushko, V.; Pashchenko, I.; Taran, G.; Zavada, L.

2015-01-01

The numerical simulations of negative corona at constant voltage in Trichel pulse mode are carried out in assumptions of presence and absence of photoemission from cathode. In absence of photoemission two peaks of total current or the step before the main peak were obtained for very small values of ion-electron emission coefficient. In presence of photoemission there were observed several maximums, connected with instability development of the process based on radiation of photons, photoemission, and avalanche multiplication

Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

2012-02-01

Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

A METHOD OF THE MINIMIZING OF THE TOTAL ACQUISITIONS COST WITH THE INCREASING VARIABLE DEMAND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ELEONORA IONELA FOCȘAN

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Over time, mankind has tried to find different ways of costs reduction. This subject which we are facing more often nowadays, has been detailed studied, without reaching a general model, and also efficient, regarding the costs reduction. Costs reduction entails a number of benefits over the entity, the most important being: increase revenue and default to the profit, increase productivity, a higher level of services / products offered to clients, and last but not least, the risk mitigation of the economic deficit. Therefore, each entity search different modes to obtain most benefits, for the company to succeed in a competitive market. This article supports the companies, trying to make known a new way of minimizing the total cost of acquisitions, by presenting some hypotheses about the increasing variable demand, proving them, and development of formulas for reducing the costs. The hypotheses presented in the model described below, can be maximally exploited to obtain new models of reducing the total cost, according to the modes of the purchase of entities which approach it.

Accuracy of different sensors for the estimation of pollutant concentrations (total suspended solids, total and dissolved chemical oxygen demand) in wastewater and stormwater.

Science.gov (United States)

Lepot, Mathieu; Aubin, Jean-Baptiste; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

2013-01-01

Many field investigations have used continuous sensors (turbidimeters and/or ultraviolet (UV)-visible spectrophotometers) to estimate with a short time step pollutant concentrations in sewer systems. Few, if any, publications compare the performance of various sensors for the same set of samples. Different surrogate sensors (turbidity sensors, UV-visible spectrophotometer, pH meter, conductivity meter and microwave sensor) were tested to link concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total and dissolved chemical oxygen demand (COD), and sensors' outputs. In the combined sewer at the inlet of a wastewater treatment plant, 94 samples were collected during dry weather, 44 samples were collected during wet weather, and 165 samples were collected under both dry and wet weather conditions. From these samples, triplicate standard laboratory analyses were performed and corresponding sensors outputs were recorded. Two outlier detection methods were developed, based, respectively, on the Mahalanobis and Euclidean distances. Several hundred regression models were tested, and the best ones (according to the root mean square error criterion) are presented in order of decreasing performance. No sensor appears as the best one for all three investigated pollutants.

Demand: a total nuclear disarmament

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hessel, Stephane; Jacquard, Albert

2012-01-01

This bibliographical note presents a book, in which the authors make a plea for a total nuclear disarmament. They think that humanity cannot be found in competition, but in emulation, and examine how we can get rid of the nuclear bomb. They discuss the background of nuclear energy, state that nuclear weapons have always been useless and extremely dangerous, consider arms race as crazy and as a crime against humanity, recall that nuclear weapons already made numerous victims (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, nuclear tests), that they are a sword of Damocles over 7 billions human beings, that nuclear winter would be an apocalypse, that the Non Proliferation Treaty is a decoy. They discuss the political role of nuclear weapons, and outline that the only solution is their abolition. They discuss what has already been done and what is still to be done, and formulate a strategy for the future

Modeling and managing urban water demand through smart meters: Benefits and challenges from current research and emerging trends

Science.gov (United States)

Cominola, A.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Piga, D.; Rizzoli, A. E.

2015-12-01

Urban population growth, climate and land use change are expected to boost residential water demand in urban contexts in the next decades. In such a context, developing suitable demand-side management strategies is essential to meet future water demands, pursue water savings, and reduce the costs for water utilities. Yet, the effectiveness of water demand management strategies (WDMS) relies on our understanding of water consumers' behavior, their consumption habits, and the water use drivers. While low spatial and temporal resolution water consumption data, as traditionally gathered for billing purposes, hardly support this understanding, the advent of high-resolution, smart metering technologies allowed for quasi real-time monitoring water consumption at the single household level. This, in turn, is advancing our ability in characterizing consumers' behavior, modeling, and designing user-oriented residential water demand management strategies. Several water smart metering programs have been rolled-out in the last two decades worldwide, addressing one or more of the following water demand management phases: (i) data gathering, (ii) water end-uses characterization, (iii) user modeling, (iv) design and implementation of personalized WDMS. Moreover, the number of research studies in this domain is quickly increasing and big economic investments are currently being devoted worldwide to smart metering programs. With this work, we contribute the first comprehensive review of more than 100 experiences in the field of residential water demand modeling and management, and we propose a general framework for their classification. We revise consolidated practices, identify emerging trends and highlight the challenges and opportunities for future developments given by the use of smart meters advancing residential water demand management. Our analysis of the status quo of smart urban water demand management research and market constitutes a structured collection of information

Demand-Side Flexibility for Energy Transitions: Ensuring the Competitive Development of Demand Response Options

OpenAIRE

Nursimulu, Anjali; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Vuille, François

2015-01-01

This report provides an overview of the current debates about demand response development, focusing primarily on Europe, with some comparisons to the United States. ‘Demand response’ includes strategies that involve end-use customers adapting or altering their electricity demand in response to grid conditions or market prices. It is viewed as a multi-purpose power-system resource that enhances the energy system’s capacity to cope with increasing demand, rising costs of conventional transmissi...

[Development and current situation of reconstruction methods following total sacrectomy].

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Siyi; Ji, Tao; Guo, Wei

2018-05-01

To review the development of the reconstruction methods following total sacrectomy, and to provide reference for finding a better reconstruction method following total sacrectomy. The case reports and biomechanical and finite element studies of reconstruction following total sacrectomy at home and abroad were searched. Development and current situation were summarized. After developing for nearly 30 years, great progress has been made in the reconstruction concept and fixation techniques. The fixation methods can be summarized as the following three strategies: spinopelvic fixation (SPF), posterior pelvic ring fixation (PPRF), and anterior spinal column fixation (ASCF). SPF has undergone technical progress from intrapelvic rod and hook constructs to pedicle and iliac screw-rod systems. PPRF and ASCF could improve the stability of the reconstruction system. Reconstruction following total sacrectomy remains a challenge. Reconstruction combining SPF, PPRF, and ASCF is the developmental direction to achieve mechanical stability. How to gain biological fixation to improve the long-term stability is an urgent problem to be solved.

Quantitative work demands, emotional demands, and cognitive stress symptoms in surgery nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone; Leitner, Monika; Hirschmüller, Anja; Kubosch, Eva Johanna; Baur, Heiner

2017-06-01

In surgery, cognitive stress symptoms, including problems in concentrating, deciding, memorising, and reflecting are risks to patient safety. Recent evidence points to social stressors as antecedents of cognitive stress symptoms in surgery personnel. The current study tests whether cognitive stress symptoms are positively associated with emotional abuse, emotional- and task-related demands and resources in surgery work. Forty-eight surgery nurses from two hospitals filled out the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire in its German version. Task-related and emotional demands were positively related to cognitive stress symptoms. In a stepwise, multiple, linear regression of cognitive stress symptoms on task-related and emotional demands, emotional abuse and emotional demands were unique predictors (p emotional abuse, emotional demands, and, therefore, communication and cooperation team climate in surgery personnel.

Total Cross Sections at current/Future Colliders, conventional models and QCD

CERN Document Server

Fazal-e-Aleem, M

1999-01-01

Rise in total cross sections for elastic scattering generated immense interest both for experimental measurements and theoretical investigations. How will total cross section behave at LHC and Cosmic Ray energies is therefore in the limelight of our future measurements. Theoretical studies become even more interesting when we take into consideration the ratio of real and imaginary parts of the scattering amplitudes. We will briefly undertake the current results and future prospects in the light of conventional as well as QCD-based phenomenology.

Top-down workforce demand extrapolation based on an EC energy road-map scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, F.; Von Estorff, U.

2014-01-01

The EHRO-N team of JRC-IET provides the EC with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The current paper deals with an alternative approach to derive figures for the demand side information of the nuclear workforce. Complementary to the bottom-up approach, a top-down modelling approach extrapolation of an EC Energy road-map nuclear energy demand scenario is followed here in addition to the survey information. In this top-down modelling approach, the number of nuclear power plants that are in operation and under construction is derived as a function of time from 2010 up to 2050 assuming that the current reactor park will be replaced by generic third generation reactors of 1400 MWe or 1000 MWe. Depending on the size of new build reactors, the analysis shows the number of new reactors required to fulfil the demand for nuclear energy. Based on workforce models for operation and construction of nuclear power plants, the model allows an extrapolation of these respective work-forces. Using the nuclear skills pyramid, the total workforce employed at a plant is broken down in a nuclear (experts), nuclearized, and nuclear aware workforce. With retirement profiles for nuclear power plants derived from the bottom-up EHRO-N survey, the replacement of the current workforce is taken into account. The peak of the new workforce (partly replacing the retiring workforce and additionally keeping up with the growing total workforce demand) for nuclear experts and nuclearized employees is to be expected at the end of the considered period (2050). However, the peak workforce for nuclear aware employees is to be expected around 2020. When comparing to historical data for the nuclear capacity being installed at the same time in Europe, it is clear that the expected future capacity to be installed at the same time in Europe is significantly lower (factor of 2) than in the early 1980's. However, it should

Public Relations in Contemporary India: Current Demands and Strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Raveena

2000-01-01

Discusses India's new direction and the persistent and insistent demand for public relations. Explains the strategic plan of the professional body in running the gauntlet in this new milieu and the pertinaciousness and urgency of the challenges ahead for public relations. (SC)

Conceptual Framework and Computational Research of Hierarchical Residential Household Water Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baodeng Hou

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Although the quantity of household water consumption does not account for a huge proportion of the total water consumption amidst socioeconomic development, there has been a steadily increasing trend due to population growth and improved urbanization standards. As such, mastering the mechanisms of household water demand, scientifically predicting trends of household water demand, and implementing reasonable control measures are key focuses of current urban water management. Based on the categorization and characteristic analysis of household water, this paper used Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs to establish a level and grade theory of household water demand, whereby household water is classified into three levels (rigid water demand, flexible water demand, and luxury water demand and three grades (basic water demand, reasonable water demand, and representational water demand. An in-depth analysis was then carried out on the factors that influence the computation of household water demand, whereby equations for different household water categories were established, and computations for different levels of household water were proposed. Finally, observational experiments on household water consumption were designed, and observation and simulation computations were performed on three typical households in order to verify the scientific outcome and rationality of the computation of household water demand. The research findings contribute to the enhancement and development of prediction theories on water demand, and they are of high theoretical and realistic significance in terms of scientifically predicting future household water demand and fine-tuning the management of urban water resources.

Impact of price and total expenditure on food demand in South ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... urban centres, income did not have much weight in its consumption, with less substitutability in response to changes in own-price and has changed from being a luxury to ... The demand for these food items in Nigeria is not so much a matter

Demand Response Within Current Electricity Wholesale Market Design

OpenAIRE

Ramos Gutierrez, Ariana Isabel; De Jonghe, Cedric; Six, Daan; Belmans, Ronnie

2013-01-01

The introduction of intermittent energy resources calls for the ability to modulate consumption patterns according to electricity availability. This paper provides a brief overview of the main electricity market design characteristics and places demand response within the framework of the existing timeline of market operation. The main differences between electricity markets lie in the price formation mechanisms where some markets pay-as- cleared and some pay- as- bid for the electricity tran...

Determinants of demand for total hip and knee arthroplasty: a systematic literature review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mota Rubén E

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Documented age, gender, race and socio-economic disparities in total joint arthroplasty (TJA, suggest that those who need the surgery may not receive it, and present a challenge to explain the causes of unmet need. It is not clear whether doctors limit treatment opportunities to patients, nor is it known the effect that patient beliefs and expectations about the operation, including their paid work status and retirement plans, have on the decision to undergo TJA. Identifying socio-economic and other determinants of demand would inform the design of effective and efficient health policy. This review was conducted to identify the factors that lead patients in need to undergo TJA. Methods An electronic search of the Embase and Medline (Ovid bibliographic databases conducted in September 2011 identified studies in the English language that reported on factors driving patients in need of hip or knee replacement to undergo surgery. The review included reports of elective surgery rates in eligible patients or, controlling for disease severity, in general subjects, and stated clinical experts’ and patients’ opinions on suitability for or willingness to undergo TJA. Quantitative and qualitative studies were reviewed, but quantitative studies involving fewer than 20 subjects were excluded. The quality of individual studies was assessed on the basis of study design (i.e., prospective versus retrospective, reporting of attrition, adjustment for and report of confounding effects, and reported measures of need (self-reported versus doctor-assessed. Reported estimates of effect on the probability of surgery from analyses adjusting for confounders were summarised in narrative form and synthesised in odds ratio (OR forest plots for individual determinants. Results The review included 26 quantitative studies−23 on individuals’ decisions or views on having the operation and three about health professionals’ opinions-and 10 qualitative

LPG world supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmes, Ch.

2008-01-01

Over the course of this decade, the global LPG market has moved from being tight, where supply barely exceeded non-price sensitive demand, to the current market situation where supply growth has outstripped demand growth to such an extent that current fundamentals suggest that considerable length will prevail in the market over the near term. As is the case for many other energy commodity markets, the LPG industry has experienced a considerable transformation over the last five years with many new LPG supply projects coming on-stream and demand growth in many developing markets slowing in response to higher energy prices. The near term challenge for LPG producers will be securing outlets for output as the market becomes increasingly oversupplied. With expanding LPG supply and a worldwide tightness in the naphtha market, it is expected that petrochemical consumers will favor relatively low priced LPG over naphtha and the resulting increase in LPG cracking rates will go some way to reducing the expected supply surplus. However, the timing of several new LPG supply projects and the start-up of LPG-based petrochemical plants in the Middle-East are expected to impact global LPG trade and pricing over the next few years. Thus, at this point in time, the global LPG market has a high degree of uncertainty with questions remaining over the impact of high energy (and LPG) prices on traditional and developing market demand, the timing of new supply projects and the combined effect of these two factors on international LPG prices. World LPG production has been rising in nearly every region of the world over the last few years and totaled about 229 million tons in 2007, which is some 30 million tons per year higher than in 2000. The exception is North America which accounts for the largest share of global LPG supply at about 24% but production there has remained relatively flat in recent years. Strong LPG production growth in the Middle-East which contributed to about 19% of

Demand scenarios, worldwide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

1996-11-01

Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

Promotion and Fast Food Demand

OpenAIRE

Timothy J. Richards; Luis Padilla

2009-01-01

Many believe that fast food promotion is a significant cause of the obesity epidemic in North America. Industry members argue that promotion only reallocates brand shares and does not increase overall demand. We study the effect of fast food promotion on market share and total demand by estimating a discrete / continuous model of fast food restaurant choice and food expenditure that explicitly accounts for both spatial and temporal determinants of demand. Estimates are obtained using a unique...

Mapping ecosystem services demand: A review of current research and future perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wolff, S.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verburg, P.H.

2015-01-01

Mapping the demand for ecosystem services (ES) has received increased attention in scientific research and is seen as a relevant tool to inform conservation planning, land use planning and management. Yet, there is a varying understanding of the concept of ES demand, which has implications on how

Current state of total artificial heart therapy and introduction of the most important total artificial heart systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Spiliopoulos, Sotirios; Hergesell, Vera; Wasler, Andrae; Dapunt, Otto

2018-06-14

Due to the declining instances of organ donation, total artificial heart (TAH) therapy is of increasing importance for the management of end-stage biventricular heart failure. We introduce the currently most important established and novel TAH systems (SynCardia, CARMAT, ReinHeart, BiVACOR), report clinical outcomes and discuss technical requirements for the successful implementation of TAH therapy as an alternative to cardiac transplantation.

The Current Utilization and Future Demand of Radiopharmaceutical and Radioisotopes in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibrahim Ijang; Zakaria Ibrahim; Bohari Yaacob

2013-01-01

Radioisotope and pharmaceutical kits play an important role in nuclear medicine for non-invasive diagnosis and treatment of various cancers and cardiovascular disease. Our aim was to survey the current utilization and future demand of radiopharmaceuticals and radioisotopes in Malaysia. The survey methodology technique was done using questionnaire administration modes. The survey was done for four month duration from government hospitals that have nuclear medicine department. The most frequent pharmaceutical kits used in hospitals were Methylene Diphosphonic acid (MDP) for bone imaging and Diethylene Triamine Pantacetic acid (DTPA). Similarly radioisotopes widely used were Tc-99m and Iodine 131.Therefore if produced of Tc-99m by Nuclear Malaysia can improved in term of high quality products, Nuclear Malaysia could be the sole supplier of this product to hospitals in Malaysia. Similarly pharmaceutical kits especially MDP and DTPA, Nuclear Malaysia has the expertise and knowledge to supply these kits to the hospital. (author)

A comprehensive assessment of the life cycle energy demand of passive houses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephan, André; Crawford, Robert H.; Myttenaere, Kristel de

2013-01-01

Highlights: • The life cycle energy demand of a passive house (PH) is measured over 100 years. • Embodied, operational and user transport energy demand are considered. • Embodied energy represents the highest energy consumption in all variations. • A PH might not save energy compared to a standard house. • A poorly insulated city apartment can use less energy than a best case suburban PH. - Abstract: Certifications such as the Passive House aim to reduce the final space heating energy demand of residential buildings. The latter are responsible for a significant share of final energy consumption in Europe of which nearly 70% is associated with space conditioning, notably heating. The improvement of the energy efficiency of residential buildings, in terms of space heating, can therefore reduce their total energy demand. However, most certifications totally overlook other energy requirements associated with residential buildings. Studies on passive houses do not take into consideration the embodied energy required to manufacture the building materials, especially the large amount of insulation required to achieve high operational efficiencies. At an urban scale, most passive houses are single family detached houses located in low density suburbs with a high car usage, resulting in considerable transport related energy demand. This paper analyses the total life cycle energy demand of a typical Belgian passive house, comprising embodied, operational and transport energy. It relies on a comprehensive technique developed by Stephan et al. [1] and conducts a parametric analysis as well as a comparison to alternative building types. Results show that current building energy efficiency certifications might not ensure a lower energy demand and can, paradoxically result in an increased energy consumption because of their limited scope. More comprehensive system boundaries should be used to make sure that net energy savings do occur. The embodied energy of passive

Providing Reliability Services through Demand Response: A Prelimnary Evaluation of the Demand Response Capabilities of Alcoa Inc.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Starke, Michael R [ORNL; Kirby, Brendan J [ORNL; Kueck, John D [ORNL; Todd, Duane [Alcoa; Caulfield, Michael [Alcoa; Helms, Brian [Alcoa

2009-02-01

Demand response is the largest underutilized reliability resource in North America. Historic demand response programs have focused on reducing overall electricity consumption (increasing efficiency) and shaving peaks but have not typically been used for immediate reliability response. Many of these programs have been successful but demand response remains a limited resource. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) report, 'Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering' (FERC 2006) found that only five percent of customers are on some form of demand response program. Collectively they represent an estimated 37,000 MW of response potential. These programs reduce overall energy consumption, lower green house gas emissions by allowing fossil fuel generators to operate at increased efficiency and reduce stress on the power system during periods of peak loading. As the country continues to restructure energy markets with sophisticated marginal cost models that attempt to minimize total energy costs, the ability of demand response to create meaningful shifts in the supply and demand equations is critical to creating a sustainable and balanced economic response to energy issues. Restructured energy market prices are set by the cost of the next incremental unit of energy, so that as additional generation is brought into the market, the cost for the entire market increases. The benefit of demand response is that it reduces overall demand and shifts the entire market to a lower pricing level. This can be very effective in mitigating price volatility or scarcity pricing as the power system responds to changing demand schedules, loss of large generators, or loss of transmission. As a global producer of alumina, primary aluminum, and fabricated aluminum products, Alcoa Inc., has the capability to provide demand response services through its manufacturing facilities and uniquely through its aluminum smelting facilities. For a typical aluminum smelter

Projected Demand and Potential Impacts to the National Airspace System of Autonomous, Electric, On-Demand Small Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jeremy C.; Viken, Jeffrey K.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Fenbert, James W.; Hartman, Christopher L.; Kwa, Teck-Seng; Moore, Mark D.

2012-01-01

Electric propulsion and autonomy are technology frontiers that offer tremendous potential to achieve low operating costs for small-aircraft. Such technologies enable simple and safe to operate vehicles that could dramatically improve regional transportation accessibility and speed through point-to-point operations. This analysis develops an understanding of the potential traffic volume and National Airspace System (NAS) capacity for small on-demand aircraft operations. Future demand projections use the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), a tool suite developed by NASA and the Transportation Laboratory of Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Demand projections from TSAM contain the mode of travel, number of trips and geographic distribution of trips. For this study, the mode of travel can be commercial aircraft, automobile and on-demand aircraft. NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) is used to assess NAS impact. This simulation takes a schedule that includes all flights: commercial passenger and cargo; conventional General Aviation and on-demand small aircraft, and operates them in the simulated NAS. The results of this analysis projects very large trip numbers for an on-demand air transportation system competitive with automobiles in cost per passenger mile. The significance is this type of air transportation can enhance mobility for communities that currently lack access to commercial air transportation. Another significant finding is that the large numbers of operations can have an impact on the current NAS infrastructure used by commercial airlines and cargo operators, even if on-demand traffic does not use the 28 airports in the Continental U.S. designated as large hubs by the FAA. Some smaller airports will experience greater demand than their current capacity allows and will require upgrading. In addition, in future years as demand grows and vehicle performance improves other non-conventional facilities such as short runways incorporated into

Dynamic Demand-Capacity Balancing for Air Traffic Management Using Constraint-Based Local Search: First Results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farshid Hassani Bijarbooneh

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Using constraint-based local search, we effectively model and efficiently solve the problem of balancing the traffic demands on portions of the European airspace while ensuring that their capacity constraints are satisfied. The traffic demand of a portion of airspace is the hourly number of flights planned to enter it, and its capacity is the upper bound on this number under which air-traffic controllers can work. Currently, the only form of demand-capacity balancing we allow is ground holding, that is the changing of the take-off times of not yet airborne flights. Experiments with projected European flight plans of the year 2030 show that already this first form of demand-capacity balancing is feasible without incurring too much total delay and that it can lead to a significantly better demand-capacity balance.

Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. J. Santos

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

A new three-dimensional, print-on-demand temporomandibular prosthetic total joint replacement system: Preliminary outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Dimitroulis, George; Austin, Stephen; Sin Lee, Peter Vee; Ackland, David

2018-05-16

The aim of this study is to present the preliminary clinical data on the OMX Temporomandibular Joint (TMJ) Prosthetic total joint replacement system. A prospective, cohort, clinical study was undertaken of consecutive adult patients with Category 5 end-stage joint disease who were implanted with the OMX TMJ prosthesis between May 2015 and April 2017. A total of 50 devices were implanted in 38 patients, with 12 patients receiving bilateral prosthetic joints. There were 31 females and 7 males in this cohort, who ranged in age from 20 to 66 years, with a mean of 43.8 years (±14.0 years). Ten of the 50 prosthetic joints (20%) were fully customized, while the remaining were patient matched using virtual planning software. Based on a mean follow-up period of 15.3 months (range 12-24 months) following the TMJ total joint replacement, preliminary results suggest the OMX TMJ prosthesis has made a positive impact on clinical outcomes, with a mean 74.4% reduction in joint pain levels and significant improvements (p < 0.05) in jaw function as measured by the visual analogue scales for mouth opening (30.8%), diet (77.1%), and function (59.2%). No device failures were reported during the study period. This study suggests that the print-on-demand OMX TMJ prosthesis, designed for rapid delivery of both patient-matched and fully customize devices, represents a safe, reliable and versatile implantable joint replacement system for the treatment of category 5 end-stage TMJ disease. Copyright © 2018 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Meeting increased demand for total knee replacement and follow-up: determining optimal follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Meding, J B; Ritter, M A; Davis, K E; Farris, A

2013-11-01

The strain on clinic and surgeon resources resulting from a rise in demand for total knee replacement (TKR) requires reconsideration of when and how often patients need to be seen for follow-up. Surgeons will otherwise require increased paramedical staff or need to limit the number of TKRs they undertake. We reviewed the outcome data of 16 414 primary TKRs undertaken at our centre to determine the time to re-operation for any reason and for specific failure mechanisms. Peak risk years for failure were determined by comparing the conditional probability of failure, the number of failures divided by the total number of TKRs cases, for each year. The median times to failure for the most common failure mechanisms were 4.9 years (interquartile range (IQR) 1.7 to 10.7) for femoral and tibial loosening, 1.9 years (IQR 0.8 to 3.9) for infection, 3.1 years (IQR 1.6 to 5.5) for tibial collapse and 5.6 years (IQR 3.4 to 9.3) for instability. The median time to failure for all revisions was 3.3 years (IQR 1.2 to 8.5), with an overall revision rate of 1.7% (n = 282). Results from our patient population suggest that patients be seen for follow-up at six months, one year, three years, eight years, 12 years, and every five years thereafter. Patients with higher pain in the early post-operative period or high body mass index (≥ 41 kg/m(2)) should be monitored more closely.

Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atakhanova, Zauresh; Howie, Peter

2007-01-01

Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency

Maximum power demand cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biondi, L.

1998-01-01

The charging for a service is a supplier's remuneration for the expenses incurred in providing it. There are currently two charges for electricity: consumption and maximum demand. While no problem arises about the former, the issue is more complicated for the latter and the analysis in this article tends to show that the annual charge for maximum demand arbitrarily discriminates among consumer groups, to the disadvantage of some [it

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

Science.gov (United States)

Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

2018-03-06

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

A survey of oil product demand elasticities for developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahl, Carol

1994-01-01

As more and more developing countries join the ranks of the rich they will consume both more oil and higher percentage of the lighter products. To satisfy this growing demand oil production and refinery capacity that can provide the right quantity and mix of products must be developed. In a companion piece, Dahl (1993) found the total demand for oil to be price inelastic (-0.34) and income elastic (1.32) These elasticities can give information on the total quantity of oil that might be demanded, the total amount of distillation capacity that might be needed and the overall increases in product prices that might be necessary to choke off demand growth. However, with this overall growth in product demand, the more the shift towards the lighter portion of the barrel, the more complex the refinery and the greater the demand for downstream capital. To provide information on this mix in developing countries in the coming years, this paper surveys the available work on econometric demand elasticities by oil product. (author)

Market architecture and power demand management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rious, Vincent; Roques, Fabien

2014-12-01

Demand response is a cornerstone problem in electricity markets considering climate change constraint. Most liberalized electricity markets have a poor track record at developing demand response. In Europe, different models are considered for demand response, from a development under a regulated regime to a development under competitive perspectives. In this paper, focusing on demand response for mid-size and small consumers, we investigate which types of market signals should be sent to demand response aggregators to see demand response emerge as a competitive activity. Using data from the French power system over eight years, we compare the possible market design options to allow demand response to develop. Our simulations demonstrate that with the current market rules, demand response is not a profitable activity in the French electricity industry. Introducing a capacity remuneration could bring additional revenues to demand response aggregators if the power system has no over-capacity

Total body irradiation: current indications; L`irradiation corporelle totale: les indications actuelles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giraud, P.; Danhier, S.; Dubray, B.; Cosset, J.M. [Institut Curie, 75 - Paris (France)

1998-05-01

The choice of dose and fractionation for total body irradiation is made difficult by the large number of considerations to be taken into account. The outcome of bone marrow transplantation after total body irradiation can be understood in terms of tumor cell killing, engraftment, and normal tissue damage, each of these endpoints being influenced by irradiation-, disease-, transplant-, and patient- related factors. Interpretation of clinical data is further hampered by the overwhelming influence of logistic constraints, the small numbers of randomized studies, and the concomitant variations in total dose and fraction size or dose rate. So far, three cautious conclusions can be drawn in order to tentatively adapt the total body irradiation schedule to clinically-relevant situations. Firstly, the organs at risk for normal tissue damage (lung, liver, lens, kidney) are protected by delivering small doses per fraction at low dose rate. This suggests that, when toxicity is at stake (e.g. in children), fractionated irradiation should be preferred, provided that inter-fraction intervals are long enough. Secondly, fractionated irradiation should be avoided in case of T-cell depleted transplant, given the high risk of graft rejection in this setting. An alternative would be to increase total (or fractional) dose of fractionated total body irradiation, but this approach is likely to induce more normal tissue toxicity. Thirdly, clinical data have shown higher relapse rates in chronic myeloid leukemia after fractionated or low dose rate total body irradiation, suggesting that fractionated irradiation should not be recommended, unless total (or fractional) dose is increased. Total body irradiation-containing regimens, primarily cyclophosphamide / total body irradiation, are either equivalent to or better than the chemotherapy-only regimens, primarily busulfan / cyclophosphamide. Busulfan / cyclophosphamide certainly represents a reasonable alternative, especially in patients who

Measurement of the $Z/A$ dependence of neutrino charged-current total cross-sections

CERN Document Server

Kayis-Topaksu, A; Van Dantzig, R; De Jong, M; Konijn, J; Melzer, O; Oldeman, R G C; Pesen, E; Van der Poel, C A F J; Spada, F R; Visschers, J L; Güler, M; Serin-Zeyrek, M; Kama, S; Sever, R; Tolun, P; Zeyrek, M T; Armenise, N; Catanesi, M G; De Serio, M; Ieva, M; Muciaccia, M T; Radicioni, E; Simone, S; Bülte, A; Winter, Klaus; El-Aidi, R; Van de Vyver, B; Vilian, P; Wilquet, G; Saitta, B; Di Capua, E; Ogawa, S; Shibuya, H; Artamonov, A V; Brunner, J; Chizhov, M; Cussans, D G; Doucet, M; Fabre, Jean-Paul; Hristova, I R; Kawamura, T; Kolev, D; Litmaath, M; Meinhard, H; Panman, J; Papadopoulos, I M; Ricciardi, S; Rozanov, A; Saltzberg, D; Tsenov, R V; Uiterwijk, J W E; Zucchelli, P; Goldberg, J; Chikawa, M; Arik, E; Song, J S; Yoon, C S; Kodama, K; Ushida, N; Aoki, S; Hara, T; Delbar, T; Favart, D; Grégoire, G; Kalinin, S; Makhlyoueva, I V; Gorbunov, P; Khovanskii, V D; Shamanov, V V; Tsukerman, I; Bruski, N; Frekers, D; Rondeshagen, D; Wolff, T; Hoshino, K; Kawada, J; Komatsu, M; Miyanishi, M; Nakamura, M; Nakano, T; Narita, K; Niu, K; Niwa, K; Nonaka, N; Sato, O; Toshito, T; Buontempo, S; Cocco, A G; D'Ambrosio, N; De Lellis, G; De Rosa, G; Di Capua, F; Ereditato, A; Fiorillo, G; Marotta, A; Messina, M; Migliozzi, P; Pistillo, C; Santorelli, R; Scotto-Lavina, L; Strolin, P; Tioukov, V; Nakamura, K; Okusawa, T; Dore, U; Loverre, P F; Ludovici, L; Maslennikov, A L; Righini, P; Rosa, G; Santacesaria, R; Satta, A; Barbuto, E; Bozza, C; Grella, G; Romano, G; Sirignano, C; Sorrentino, S; Sato, Y; Tezuka, I

2003-01-01

A relative measurement of total cross-sections is reported for polyethylene, marble, iron, and lead targets for the inclusive charged-current reaction nu_mu + N -> mu^- + X. The targets, passive blocks of ~100kg each, were exposed simultaneously to the CERN SPS wide-band muon-neutrino beam over a period of 18 weeks. Systematics effects due to differences in the neutrino flux and detector efficiency for the different target locations were minimised by changing the position of the four targets on their support about every two weeks. The relative neutrino fluxes on the targets were monitored within the same experiment using charged-current interactions in the calorimeter positioned directly downstream of the four targets. From a fit to the Z/A dependence of the total cross-sections a value is deduced for the effective neutron-to-proton cross-section ratio.

Electricity demand and storage dispatch modeling for buildings and implications for the smartgrid

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Menglian; Meinrenken, Christoph

2013-04-01

As an enabler for demand response (DR), electricity storage in buildings has the potential to lower costs and carbon footprint of grid electricity while simultaneously mitigating grid strain and increasing its flexibility to integrate renewables (central or distributed). We present a stochastic model to simulate minute-by-minute electricity demand of buildings and analyze the resulting electricity costs under actual, currently available DR-enabling tariffs in New York State, namely a peak/offpeak tariff charging by consumed energy (monthly total kWh) and a time of use tariff charging by power demand (monthly peak kW). We then introduce a variety of electrical storage options (from flow batteries to flywheels) and determine how DR via temporary storage may increase the overall net present value (NPV) for consumers (comparing the reduced cost of electricity to capital and maintenance costs of the storage). We find that, under the total-energy tariff, only medium-term storage options such as batteries offer positive NPV, and only at the low end of storage costs (optimistic scenario). Under the peak-demand tariff, however, even short-term storage such as flywheels and superconducting magnetic energy offer positive NPV. Therefore, these offer significant economic incentive to enable DR without affecting the consumption habits of buildings' residents. We discuss implications for smartgrid communication and our future work on real-time price tariffs.

California demand and supply of crude oil: An econometric analysis with projections to 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibegbulam, B.N.

1991-01-01

Forecast of California domestic crude oil supply requires the forecasts of California crude oil production and supply from Alaska. Future California crude oil production is forecast with an econometric model that postulates production as a function of reserves and reserves as a function of crude oil prices and exploration and development costs. Future supplies from Alaska are obtained by subtracting forecasts of Alaskan crude oil demand and shipments to the States of Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington from Alaskan North Slope crude oil production forecasts. A two-stage process was used to forecast future California crude oil demand. In the first stage, the demand for refined crude oil products was predicted with a single-equation double logarithmic rational-expectations dynamic model. In the second stage, the total demands obtained in the first stage were converted into a crude oil equivalent. It was found that the current surplus of domestic crude oil in California will end in 1994. Thereafter, California crude oil imports will sharply increase

Measurement of the Z/A dependence of neutrino charged-current total cross-sections

CERN Document Server

Kayis-Topasku, A; Dantzig, R V

2003-01-01

A relative measurement of total cross-sections is reported for polyethylene, marble, iron, and lead targets for the inclusive charged-current reaction nu submu + N -> mu sup - + X. The targets, passive blocks of propor to 100 kg each, were exposed simultaneously to the CERN SPS wide-band muon-neutrino beam over a period of 18 weeks. Systematic effects due to differences in the neutrino flux and detector efficiency for the different target locations were minimised by changing the position of the four targets on their support about every two weeks. The relative neutrino fluxes on the targets were monitored within the same experiment using charged-current interactions in the calorimeter positioned directly downstream of the four targets. From a fit to the Z/A dependence of the total cross-sections a value is deduced for the effective neutron-to-proton cross-section ratio. (orig.)

A TRMM/GPM retrieval of the total mean generator current for the global electric circuit

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Michael; Deierling, Wiebke; Liu, Chuntao; Mach, Douglas; Kalb, Christina

2017-09-01

A specialized satellite version of the passive microwave electric field retrieval algorithm (Peterson et al., 2015) is applied to observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites to estimate the generator current for the Global Electric Circuit (GEC) and compute its temporal variability. By integrating retrieved Wilson currents from electrified clouds across the globe, we estimate a total mean current of between 1.4 kA (assuming the 7% fraction of electrified clouds producing downward currents measured by the ER-2 is representative) to 1.6 kA (assuming all electrified clouds contribute to the GEC). These current estimates come from all types of convective weather without preference, including Electrified Shower Clouds (ESCs). The diurnal distribution of the retrieved generator current is in excellent agreement with the Carnegie curve (RMS difference: 1.7%). The temporal variability of the total mean generator current ranges from 110% on semi-annual timescales (29% on an annual timescale) to 7.5% on decadal timescales with notable responses to the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Nino Southern Oscillation. The geographical distribution of current includes significant contributions from oceanic regions in addition to the land-based tropical chimneys. The relative importance of the Americas and Asia chimneys compared to Africa is consistent with the best modern ground-based observations and further highlights the importance of ESCs for the GEC.

12 CFR 608.806 - Demand for payment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Demand for payment. 608.806 Section 608.806 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE PROVISIONS COLLECTION OF CLAIMS OWED THE UNITED STATES Administrative Collection of Claims § 608.806 Demand for payment. (a) A total of three...

Study on the demand of climate finance for developing countries based on submitted INDC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen Zhang

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The 21st Conference of Party (COP21 held in Paris at the end of 2015 has opened a new era for the joint response dealing with climate change globally, and built up a new mode of global climate governance, that is, “all Parties submit INDC – global stocktake – enhance effort of actions – all Parties resubmit INDC – finally achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention.” With 160 INDC reports (covering 188 Parties that the UNFCCC Secretariat has currently received as research objects, this study classifies the mitigation targets of all Parties, and focuses on the systematic analysis of the financial demand, mitigation cost and priority investment areas for developing countries. The results are as follows: among 160 INDC reports, 122 reports clearly include the finance content; 64 reports propose specific amount of financial demand for the implementation of INDC; 31 reports pre-estimate domestic amount and financial demand for greenhouse gas mitigation in 2030, based on which they have calculated that the average mitigation cost for developing countries in 2030 would have reached up to US$22.3 per ton CO2; 28 Parties reclassify the financial demand for mitigation and adaptation areas, and reach the conclusion that the overall financial demand ratio for mitigation and adaptation is 1.4. Should the current mitigation commitments of the Parties from developed countries be used as benchmark, then in 2030 the total amount of financial demand for developing countries in response to climate change would have reached up to US$474 billion.

Seven Trends Driving U.S. Food Demands

OpenAIRE

Kinsey, Jean D.

1992-01-01

Seven trends have a great deal to say about how demand for food will evolve into the 21 st century. They relate to the slow growth in total food demand, diversity in foods, global homogenization of food consumption patterns, demand for convenience, public services related to food, relationships between food production and its distribution to the environment, and, better health. Paying close attention to these factors can help distinguish between fads that will soon be gone and more fundamenta...

12 CFR 1408.6 - Demand for payment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Demand for payment. 1408.6 Section 1408.6 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT SYSTEM INSURANCE CORPORATION COLLECTION OF CLAIMS OWED THE UNITED STATES Administrative Collection of Claims § 1408.6 Demand for payment. (a) A total of three progressively stronger...

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension. Volume 1: Background and summary

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, I. D.

1978-01-01

The framework for a model of travel demand which will be useful in predicting the total market for air travel between two cities is discussed. Variables to be used in determining the need for air transportation where none currently exists and the effect of changes in system characteristics on attracting latent demand are identified. Existing models are examined in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. Much of the existing behavioral research in travel demand is incorporated to allow the inclusion of non-economic factors, such as convenience. The model developed is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed.

Simulating residential demand response: Improving socio-technical assumptions in activity-based models of energy demand

OpenAIRE

McKenna, E.; Higginson, S.; Grunewald, P.; Darby, S. J.

2017-01-01

Demand response is receiving increasing interest as a new form of flexibility within low-carbon power systems. Energy models are an important tool to assess the potential capability of demand side contributions. This paper critically reviews the assumptions in current models and introduces a new conceptual framework to better facilitate such an assessment. We propose three dimensions along which change could occur, namely technology, activities and service expectations. Using this framework, ...

Transport demand, harmful emissions, environment and health co-benefits in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

HE, Ling-Yun; QIU, Lu-Yi

2016-01-01

The Chinese residents' travel demand has been increasing dramatically. As a result, emissions from motor vehicles have been found as one main source of air pollution in China, which consequently influences the residents' health. To better understand the environmental deterioration and health losses caused by the transport sector in China, in current circumstances, one must know how the changes in residents' travel demand and alternative transport modes affect environment and health co-benefits in China. We first of all calculate the demand from nearly all the residents' travel means, including road, rail, water, and air transport. Besides, based on the results, this paper further makes projections for a business-as-usual scenario for 2050 with several alternative transport scenarios to reduce harmful emissions and improve the welfare of the residents' health in China. Our integrated framework includes the harmful emissions models, the fixed box model and the exposure-response models, to link transport demand with possible environmental and health outcomes. The findings suggest that significant environment and health co-benefits are possible if alternative transport replaces. This research, to the best of our knowledge, is the first attempt to estimate the total resident's travel demand under different scenarios and the consequent environment and health co-benefits in the transitional China. - Highlights: • The changes in travel demand affect both environment and health in China. • Integrated framework is proposed to analyze environment and health co-benefits. • Travel demand here includes all travel means: road, rail, water, and air transport. • Counter-factual scenarios are proposed to estimate environment and health impacts.

How propane supply and demand in North America affects prices in Alberta

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, D.

2000-01-01

Total North American demand for propane in 1999 was estimated at 1,700 MBPD, of which 1,300 MBPD represents demand by the United States. World-wide demand is about 3,500 MBPD, Europe and the Mid East combined, and Asia, each accounting for 800 to 850 MBPD. The United States is able to supply about 1,000 MBPD of its own demand ; the rest comes from imports. Total imports make up about 12 per cent of the U.S. supply; in 1999 just over 80 per cent, or about 120 MBPD of the imported propane came from Canada. The volume of export from Canada to the United states is expected to rise to about 170 MBPD, or 86 per cent of the total domestic supply shortfall in 2000. Prices at Edmonton ranged between 35 cents per gallon in Jan 1997, to about 42 cents per gallon in January 2000; during much of this period (from July 1997 to July 1999) the price was below 30 cents per gallon and as low as about 15 cents per gallon in January 1999. The price differential between Edmonton and Conway (the receiving point in the United States) was an average of 6 cents (US) per gallon. Total U.S. propane inventories during the same period and propane inventories against heating degree days and Conway propane prices are also shown in graphic form. The various graphs illustrate that in general, the price of propane at any given time is heavily influenced by the price of crude oil, however, in the short term competing fuels, weather conditions and inventory levels also play a part in determining prices. With regard to the future, a bullish outlook envisages flat to current prices, whereas a bearish outlook forecasts lower prices due to softening of the world economy, high U.S. and Canadian inventories, and the possibility of another warm winter. 18 viewgraphs

Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dilaver, Zafer; Hunt, Lester C

2011-01-01

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008. - Research highlights: → Estimated short run and long run expenditure elasticities of 0.38 and 1.57, respectively. → Estimated short run and long run price elasticities of -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. → Estimated UEDT has increasing (i.e. energy using) and decreasing (i.e. energy saving) periods. → Predicted Turkish residential electricity demand between 48 and 80 TWh in 2020.

Future Parking Demand at Rail Stations in Klang Valley

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ho Phooi Wai

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Klang Valley, Malaysia is currently undergoing a massive development of rail transportation system expansion where the current integrated rail transit system will see new extensions of two MRT lines and an LRT line by year 2020. By year 2017, the first MRT line will be ready to run with 31 new rail stations connected to the current passenger rail network. The existing Park and Ride facilities in Klang Valley are commonly known as being unable to sufficiently cater for the current parking space demand. Therefore, with the expansion of many additional rail stations which are rapidly under construction, there are doubts that the future parking space at rail stations will be able to accommodate the sudden rise of rail passengers. Although the authorities are increasing parking bays at various locations, will the future parking demand at rail stations be sufficient? This paper studies the factors influencing parking demand in terms of population, car ownership, new car registrations and passenger rail ridership and estimating the future parking demand using Linear Regression method. Result shows that the forecasted parking demand at rail stations after the implementation of the first new MRT system in 2017 is 2.7 times more than in 2014.

Pattern of demand for children in Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, T

1992-01-01

The study aim was to determine the pattern of demand for children and to suggest ways to introduce the idea of a small-family norm and reduce the unmet need for contraception in Pakistan. The concept of demand for children included the wantedness of the last birth and the timing of the next birth and changed with stage in reproductive life cycle. Data were obtained from the Pakistan Contraception Prevalence Survey of 1984/85. Pakistan's strong patriarchal system emphasized rapid achievement of first pregnancy in order to assure the perpetuation of the lineage. Female status, even with advanced education, emphasized fecundity and producing a male heir. The birthing pattern among rural and urban lower-class women is to bear 3-4 children early in marriage. Evidence from prior surveys showed that educated women plan for a delay in second birth. Of the 6655 ever pregnant and nonsterilized women, about 48% of currently married women desired discontinuation of childbearing. 18% desired a delay of childbearing by 2 years and 10% desired no more children after a last undesired pregnancy. Unmet need was estimated at 17% of all women in the sample. Women desiring no more children were primarily older with 6-8 prior births. Indirect fertility estimates were generated by using Arriaga's techniques for stages of family formation. The resulting estimates showed that higher-parity women desiring no more children still had 2 more children, which was evidence of unmet need. Those desiring more children had higher fertility than those not desiring more children. These women also showed different patterns in their total demand for children, ideal family size, currently living children, and desire for their next birth. Ideal size tended to rise over the length of a marriage, which may mean that women with growing families may justify unwanted fertility. Duration of marriage was viewed as a reasonable indicator of need for fertility control and the concomitant need for outreach

Open Automated Demand Response for Small Commerical Buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dudley, June Han; Piette, Mary Ann; Koch, Ed; Hennage, Dan

2009-05-01

This report characterizes small commercial buildings by market segments, systems and end-uses; develops a framework for identifying demand response (DR) enabling technologies and communication means; and reports on the design and development of a low-cost OpenADR enabling technology that delivers demand reductions as a percentage of the total predicted building peak electric demand. The results show that small offices, restaurants and retail buildings are the major contributors making up over one third of the small commercial peak demand. The majority of the small commercial buildings in California are located in southern inland areas and the central valley. Single-zone packaged units with manual and programmable thermostat controls make up the majority of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems for small commercial buildings with less than 200 kW peak electric demand. Fluorescent tubes with magnetic ballast and manual controls dominate this customer group's lighting systems. There are various ways, each with its pros and cons for a particular application, to communicate with these systems and three methods to enable automated DR in small commercial buildings using the Open Automated Demand Response (or OpenADR) communications infrastructure. Development of DR strategies must consider building characteristics, such as weather sensitivity and load variability, as well as system design (i.e. under-sizing, under-lighting, over-sizing, etc). Finally, field tests show that requesting demand reductions as a percentage of the total building predicted peak electric demand is feasible using the OpenADR infrastructure.

Communication technologies for demand side management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uuspaeae, P [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

1998-08-01

The scope of this research is data communications for electric utilities, specifically for the purposes of Demand Side Management (DSM). Demand Side Management has the objective to change the customer`s end use of energy in a manner that benefits both the customer and the utility. For example, peak demand may be reduced, and the peak demand may be relocated to off peak periods. Thus additional investments in generation and network may be avoided. A number of Demand Side Management functions can be implemented if a communication system is available between the Electric Utility and the Customer. The total communication capacity that is needed, will depend on several factors, such as the functions that are chosen for DSM, and on the number and type of customers. Some functions may be handled with one-way communications, while some other functions need to have two-way communication

Uranium 2014: Resources, Production and Demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vance, Robert

2014-01-01

Since the mid-1960's, with the co-operation of their member countries and states, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have jointly prepared periodic updates (currently every two years) on world uranium resources, production and demand. Published by the OECD/NEA in what is commonly known as the 'Red Book', the 25. edition, released in September 2014, contains 45 national reports covering uranium producing and consuming countries and those with plans to do so. The uranium resource figures presented in the 25. edition of the Red Book are a snapshot of the situation as of 1 January 2013. Resource figures are dynamic and related to commodity prices. Despite less favourable market conditions, continued high levels of investment and associated exploration efforts have resulted in the identification of additional resources of economic interest, just as in past periods of intense exploration activity. Total identified resources (reasonably assured and inferred) as of 1 January 2013 amounted to 5 902 900 tonnes of uranium metal (tU) in the 3 O 8 ) category, an increase of 10.8% compared to 1 January 2011. In the highest cost category ( 3 O 8 ) which was reintroduced in 2009, total identified resources amounted to 7 635 200 tU, an increase of 7.6% compared to the total reported in 2011. The majority of the increases are a result of re-evaluations of previously identified resources and additions to known deposits, particularly in Australia, Canada, the People's Republic of China, the Czech Republic, Greenland, Kazakhstan and South Africa. Worldwide exploration and mine development expenditures in 2012 totalled USD 1.92 billion, a 21% increase over updated 2010 figures, despite declining market prices. Production in 2012 increased by 7.4% from 2011 to 58 816 tU and is expected to increase to over 59 500 tU in 2013. This recent growth is principally the result of increased production in Kazakhstan, which remains the world

Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Satish; Kwon, Hyouk-Tae; Choi, Kwang-Ho; Hyun Cho, Jae; Lim, Wonsub; Moon, Il

2011-01-01

An unceasing growth of gas consumption in domestic households, industry, and power plants has gradually turned natural gas into a major source of energy. Main drivers in this development are the technical and economic advantages of natural gas. It is a clean, versatile, and easily controllable fuel. On this basis, natural gas is often considered the form of energy that will be the 'bridging fuel' to a sustainable energy system, sometime after 2050. Unlike other main sources of energy, such as oil and coal, gas is not traded on an actual world market. This paper provides an overview on demand and supplies of natural gas (LNG) in the past as a function of gas prices, gas technology (gas sweetening, liquefaction, shipping and re-gasification), and gas market and how they have changed recently. It also discusses the likely developments in global LNG demand for the period to the year 2030. - Highlights: → This study provides an overview on demand and supplies of LNG in the past and future. → Outlook for LNG demand in Asia pacific region is very robust. → In past decade the shale gas production in USA has increased fivefold. → The future of European gas supply depends largely on the geopolitical environments. → Within the gas sector LNG is playing an ever increasing role in gas transportation.

Oak Ridge Isotope Products and Services - Current and Expected Supply and Demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aaron, W.S.; Alexander, C.W.; Cline, R.L.; Collins, E.D.; Klein, J.A.; Knauer, J.B. Jr.; Mirzadeh, S.

1999-01-01

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been a major center of isotope production research, development, and distribution for over 50 years. Currently, the major isotope production activities include (1) the production of transuranium element radioisotopes, including 252 Cf; (2) the production of medical and industrial radioisotopes; (3) maintenance and expansion of the capabilities for production of enriched stable isotopes; and, (4) preparation of a wide range of custom-order chemical and physical forms of isotope products, particularly in accelerator physics research. The recent supply of and demand for isotope products and services in these areas, research and development (R ampersand D), and the capabilities for future supply are described in more detail below. The keys to continuing the supply of these important products and services are the maintenance, improvement, and potential expansion of specialized facilities, including (1) the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), (2) the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center (REDC) and Radiochemical Development Laboratory (RDL) hot cell facilities, (3) the electromagnetic calutron mass separators and the plasma separation process equipment for isotope enrichment, and (4) the Isotope Research Materials Laboratory (IRML) equipment for preparation of specialized chemical and physical forms of isotope products. The status and plans for these ORNL isotope production facilities are also described below

The demand for refined petroleum products in Iran: Estimation and projection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kianian, A.M.

1990-01-01

The estimation and projection of the demand for refined petroleum products of the OPEC states, are important for the world petroleum market from both the demand and supply sides. In this context, this study forms an econometric model to estimte the demand for the total and four major refined petroleum products (RPPs) in Iran and project their future trends into the year 2000. The fact that Iran has the largest domestic demand for RPPs among all the OPEC members has motivated some research primarily to study the structure of the demand for such products. None, however, has utilized econometric models to estimate or project the demand for RPPs. The first section of this study discusses the structure of the Iranian energy market. Next, the demand functions for gasoline, kerosine, gas oil, fuel oil, and the total RPPs in Iran are estimated. The third section puts together the demand functions to form a model used to project the demand for RPPs up to the year 2000 under an historical scenario. Finally, some condlusions are offered. 7 tabs

New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

2015-08-07

To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hostick, Donna J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael C. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-07-01

This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.

Replacement of chemical oxygen demand (COD) with total organic carbon (TOC) for monitoring wastewater treatment performance to minimize disposal of toxic analytical waste.

Science.gov (United States)

Dubber, Donata; Gray, Nicholas F

2010-10-01

Chemical oxygen demand (COD) is widely used for wastewater monitoring, design, modeling and plant operational analysis. However this method results in the production of hazardous wastes including mercury and hexavalent chromium. The study examined the replacement of COD with total organic carbon (TOC) for general performance monitoring by comparing their relationship with influent and effluent samples from 11 wastewater treatment plants. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) was also included in the comparison as a control. The results show significant linear relationships between TOC, COD and BOD5 in settled (influent) domestic and municipal wastewaters, but only between COD and TOC in treated effluents. The study concludes that TOC can be reliably used for the generic replacement of both COD (COD=49.2+3.00*TOC) and BOD5 (BOD5=23.7+1.68*TOC) in influent wastewaters but only for COD (COD=7.25+2.99*TOC) in final effluents.

Optimised control and pipe burst detection by water demand forecasting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, M.

2014-01-01

Water demand forecasting The total water demand in an area is the sum of the water demands of all individual domestic and industrial consumers in that area. These consumers behave in repetitive daily, weekly and annual patterns, and the same repetitive patterns can be observed in the drinking water

[Modern tribology in total hip arthroplasty: pros and cons].

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-García, F

2014-01-01

The wear products and adverse reactions that occur on bearing surfaces represent one of the greatest challenges in prosthetic replacements, as the latter experience increasing demands due to the large number of young and older adult patients that have a long life expectancy and remarkable activity. The purpose of this review is to analyze the pros and cons of the new advances in the bearing components of the articular surfaces of current total hip arthroplasties. We also discuss the strategies used historically, their problems, results and the surgeon's role in prescribing the tribologic couple that best fits each patient's needs. We conclude with practical recommendations for the prescription and management of the latest articular couples for total hip arthroplasty.

[Was the current surplus of neurosurgeons predictable in 2009? Analysis of the situation based on the Report of supply and demand of medical specialists in Spain (2008-2025)].

Science.gov (United States)

Martín-Láez, Rubén; Ibáñez, Javier; Lagares, Alfonso; Fernández-Alén, José; Díez-Lobato, Ramiro

2012-11-01

In 2009 the Spanish Ministry of Health (SMH) published the report of supply and demand of medical specialists in Spain (2008-2025), in which our specialty was considered as presenting a moderate deficit of consultants. However, Spanish neurosurgery is currently in a situation of having a surplus of neurosurgeons. To determine whether it was possible to predict the current excess of neurosurgeons in 2009 and to forecast the most likely perspective of supply and demand in 2017. Raw data extracted from the SMH report, information on the ages of the Spanish neurosurgeons obtained from the study performed by our Board of Directors in 2001, and annual mortality rates for different age ranges provided by the National Institute of Statistics, were used to predict the evolution of supply and demand of neurosurgeons for the periods 2008-2012 and 2013-2017. The current situation of an excess of specialists was predictable in 2009, and if appropriate measures are not taken, a surplus of more than 100 neurosurgeons is likely in 2017, with an unemployment rate above 26% in the worst scenario. In order to match the actual and future demand of specialists, it is necessary and urgent to reduce the number of neurosurgical in-training positions. To achieve this goal, it is essential to obtain periodical and up-to-date structural information of the different Neurosurgery Departments and Units, and to revisit the accreditation terms of the more than fifty current teaching units. Copyright © 2012 Sociedad Española de Neurocirugía. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Demand of the power industry of Russia for gas turbines: the current state and prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Filippov, S. P.; Dil'man, M. D.; Ionov, M. S.

2017-11-01

The use of gas-turbine plants (GTPs) in the power industry of Russia is analyzed. Attention is paid to microturbines and low-, medium-, high-, and superhigh-power GTPs. The efficiency of the gas-turbine plants of domestic and foreign manufacture is compared. The actual values of the installed capacity utilization factor and the corresponding efficiency values are calculated for most GTPs operating in the country. The long-term demand of the country's electric power industry for GTPs for the period until 2040 is determined. The estimates have been obtained for three basic applications of the gas turbines, viz., for replacement of the GTPs that have exhausted their lifetime, replacement of outdated gas-turbine plants at gas-and-oilburning power plants, and construction of new thermal power plants to cover the anticipated growing demand for electric power. According to the findings of the research, the main item in the structure of the demand for GTPs will be their use to replace the decommissioned steam-turbine plants, predominantly those integrated into combined-cycle plants. The priority of the reconstruction of the thermal power plants in operation over the construction of new ones is determined by the large excess of accumulated installed capacities in the country and considerable savings on capital costs using production sites with completed infrastructure. It is established that medium- and high-power GTPs will be the most in-demand plants in the electric power industry. The demand for low-power GTPs will increase at high rates. The demand for microturbines is expected to be rather great. The demand for superhigh-power plants will become quantitatively significant after 2025 and grow rapidly afterwards. The necessity of accelerated development of competitive domestic GTPs with a wide range of capacities and mastering of their series manufacture as well as production of licensed gas turbines at a high production localization level on the territory of the country

Future United States Domestic Water Demand

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population projections, estimated per capita consumption rate, and estimated total annual water demand to 2100 for four future projections based off the IPCC SRES...

Influence of total beam current on HRTEM image resolution in differentially pumped ETEM with nitrogen gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bright, A.N.; Yoshida, K.; Tanaka, N.

2013-01-01

Environmental transmission electron microscopy (ETEM) enables the study of catalytic and other reaction processes as they occur with Angstrom-level resolution. The microscope used is a dedicated ETEM (Titan ETEM, FEI Company) with a differential pumping vacuum system and apertures, allowing aberration corrected high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) imaging to be performed with gas pressures up to 20 mbar in the sample area and with significant advantages over membrane-type E-cell holders. The effect on image resolution of varying the nitrogen gas pressure, electron beam current density and total beam current were measured using information limit (Young's fringes) on a standard cross grating sample and from silicon crystal lattice imaging. As expected, increasing gas pressure causes a decrease in HRTEM image resolution. However, the total electron beam current also causes big changes in the image resolution (lower beam current giving better resolution), whereas varying the beam current density has almost no effect on resolution, a result that has not been reported previously. This behavior is seen even with zero-loss filtered imaging, which we believe shows that the drop in resolution is caused by elastic scattering at gas ions created by the incident electron beam. Suitable conditions for acquiring high resolution images in a gas environment are discussed. Lattice images at nitrogen pressures up to 16 mbar are shown, with 0.12 nm information transfer at 4 mbar. -- Highlights: ► ETEM images with point resolution of 0.12 nm in 4 mbar of nitrogen gas. ► Clear Si lattice imaging with 16 mbar of nitrogen gas. ► ETEM image resolution in gas can be much improved by decreasing total beam current. ► Beam current density (beam convergence) has no effect on the image resolution.

Forecasting fluid milk and cheese demands for the next decade.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmit, T M; Kaiser, H M

2006-12-01

Predictions of future market demands and farm prices for dairy products are important determinants in developing marketing strategies and farm-production planning decisions. The objective of this report was to use current aggregate forecast data, combined with existing econometric models of demand and supply, to forecast retail demands for fluid milk and cheese and the supply and price of farm milk over the next decade. In doing so, we can investigate whether projections of population and consumer food-spending patterns will extend or alter current consumption trends and examine the implications of future generic advertising strategies for dairy products. To conduct the forecast simulations and appropriately allocate the farm milk supply to various uses, we used a partial equilibrium model of the US domestic dairy sector that segmented the industry into retail, wholesale, and farm markets. Model simulation results indicated that declines in retail per capita demand would persist but at a reduced rate from years past and that retail per capita demand for cheese would continue to grow and strengthen over the next decade. These predictions rely on expected changes in the size of populations of various ages, races, and ethnicities and on existing patterns of spending on food at home and away from home. The combined effect of these forecasted changes in demand levels was reflected in annualized growth in the total farm-milk supply that was similar to growth realized during the past few years. Although we expect nominal farm milk prices to increase over the next decade, we expect real prices (relative to assumed growth in feed costs) to remain relatively stable and show no increase until the end of the forecast period. Supplemental industry model simulations also suggested that net losses in producer revenues would result if only nominal levels of generic advertising spending were maintained in forthcoming years. In fact, if real generic advertising expenditures are

Analysis of water supply and demand in high mountain cities of Bolivia under growing population and changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Kinouchi, T.; Mendoza, J.; Asaoka, Y.; Fuchs, P.

2017-12-01

Water resources in La Paz and El Alto, high mountain capital cities of Bolivia, strongly depend on the surface and subsurface runoff from partially glacierized catchments located in the Cordillera Real, Andes. Due to growing population and changing climate, the balance between water supply from the source catchments and demand for drinking, agriculture, industry and hydropower has become precarious in recent years as evidenced by a serious drought during the 2015-2016 El Nino event. To predict the long-term availability of water resources under changing climate, we developed a semi-distributed glacio-hydrological model that considers various runoff pathways from partially glacierized high-altitude catchments. Two GCM projections (MRI-AGCM and INGV-ECHAM4) were used for the prediction with bias corrected by reanalysis data (ERA-INTERIM) and downscaled to target areas using data monitored at several weather stations. The model was applied to three catchments from which current water resources are supplied and eight additional catchments that will be potentially effective in compensating reduced runoff from the current water resource areas. For predicting the future water demand, a cohort-component method was used for the projection of size and composition of population change, considering natural and social change (birth, death and transfer). As a result, total population is expected to increase from 1.6 million in 2012 to 2.0 million in 2036. The water demand was predicted for given unit water consumption, non-revenue water rate (NWR), and sectorial percentage of water consumption for domestic, industrial and commercial purposes. The results of hydrological simulations and the analysis of water demand indicated that water supply and demand are barely balanced in recent years, while the total runoff from current water resource areas will continue to decrease and unprecedented water shortage is likely to occur since around 2020 toward the middle of 21st century even

[Profile of the Emergency demand and influence of televised soccer games on an extra-hospital center in the Tafalla health care district. Navarre, Spain].

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Ciordia, Ignacio; Catalán Fabo, Francisca; Zalacain Nicolay, Fernando; Barriendo Antoñanzas, Maite; Solaegui Diaz de Guereñu, Ramón; Guillén Grima, Francisco

2003-01-01

The demand placed on both hospital as well as extrahospital emergency care units currently continues to increase at a growing rate. This study has a twofold objective: the quantification and study of the personal characteristics of the users who are demanding emergency care and assessing whether televised soccer games have any bearing on the utilization of emergency care services. A longitudinal descriptive study (9,723 users demanding care) and study of cases and controls (1,284 users demanding care) according to whether or not a soccer game was being televised by means of a logistic regression model. The associations were quantified by means of the odds ratio (OR). Those dealt with by telephone or in infirmaries were not included in the study. A total 10.6% of the demand involved home visits, 4.8% of this total having been sent to hospital. A total 13.3% of the demand corresponds to individuals visiting from other healthcare districts, a total of 65 being overusers of emergency care (8 or more visits). The month of August (32.3%). Sundays (44.56%) and the 12:00 p.m.-2:00 p.m. timeframe (8.38%) are the times when the greatest demand for care occurs, the differences being statistically significant. Televised soccer games were associated to a 19.8% (p emergency care units has been found to exist, a major part of the demand being concentrated at highly specific points in time. A major degree of care is provided to those visiting from outside their own healthcare districts. Television soccer game broadcasts is associated with the greater utilization of the emergency care services.

JSC Advanced Curation: Research and Development for Current Collections and Future Sample Return Mission Demands

Science.gov (United States)

Fries, M. D.; Allen, C. C.; Calaway, M. J.; Evans, C. A.; Stansbery, E. K.

2015-01-01

Curation of NASA's astromaterials sample collections is a demanding and evolving activity that supports valuable science from NASA missions for generations, long after the samples are returned to Earth. For example, NASA continues to loan hundreds of Apollo program samples to investigators every year and those samples are often analyzed using instruments that did not exist at the time of the Apollo missions themselves. The samples are curated in a manner that minimizes overall contamination, enabling clean, new high-sensitivity measurements and new science results over 40 years after their return to Earth. As our exploration of the Solar System progresses, upcoming and future NASA sample return missions will return new samples with stringent contamination control, sample environmental control, and Planetary Protection requirements. Therefore, an essential element of a healthy astromaterials curation program is a research and development (R&D) effort that characterizes and employs new technologies to maintain current collections and enable new missions - an Advanced Curation effort. JSC's Astromaterials Acquisition & Curation Office is continually performing Advanced Curation research, identifying and defining knowledge gaps about research, development, and validation/verification topics that are critical to support current and future NASA astromaterials sample collections. The following are highlighted knowledge gaps and research opportunities.

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Science.gov (United States)

Sallaba, Florian; Olin, Stefan; Engström, Kerstin; Abdi, Abdulhakim M.; Boke-Olén, Niklas; Lehsten, Veiko; Ardö, Jonas; Seaquist, Jonathan W.

2017-12-01

In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from

Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East : Current Practices and Future Needs. Couverture du livre Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East : Current Practices. Directeur(s) : David B. Brooks, Eglal Rached et Maurice Saade. Maison(s) d'édition : CRDI. 1 janvier 1997. ISBN : Épuisé.

Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

1997-01-01

Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East : Current Practices and Future Needs. Couverture du livre Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East : Current Practices. Editor(s):. David B. Brooks, Eglal Rached et Maurice Saade. Publisher(s):. CRDI. January 1, 1997. ISBN: Épuisé. 78 pages.

US residential energy demand and energy efficiency: A stochastic demand frontier approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Filippini, Massimo; Hunt, Lester C.

2012-01-01

This paper estimates a US frontier residential aggregate energy demand function using panel data for 48 ‘states’ over the period 1995 to 2007 using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Utilizing an econometric energy demand model, the (in)efficiency of each state is modeled and it is argued that this represents a measure of the inefficient use of residential energy in each state (i.e. ‘waste energy’). This underlying efficiency for the US is therefore observed for each state as well as the relative efficiency across the states. Moreover, the analysis suggests that energy intensity is not necessarily a good indicator of energy efficiency, whereas by controlling for a range of economic and other factors, the measure of energy efficiency obtained via this approach is. This is a novel approach to model residential energy demand and efficiency and it is arguably particularly relevant given current US energy policy discussions related to energy efficiency.

Stability of Money Demand Function in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haroon Sarwar

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The role, which money demand function plays in monetary policy formulation has attracted a lot of research studies to analyze this macroeconomic phenomenon. In the wake of current global and local economic and political upheavals, it is imperative to revisit the stability of money demand function. The study used the time series data and applied latest econometric techniques to find out the long run and short run money demand relationship. Moreover, all the three official monetary aggregates were used for finding out the most stable monetary demand relationship, which could provide correct signals for monetary policy formulation. The study found that broader monetary aggregate (M2 was the proper aggregate, which provided stable money demand function for Pakistan. The real GDP was positively related to the demand for real balances, while opportunity cost of money was negatively related. The study found that the role of financial innovation, in explaining the demand for money warrants attention in formulating monetary policy.

Managing demand uncertainty: probabilistic selling versus inventory substitution

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Y.; Hua, Guowei; Wang, Shouyang; Zhang, Juliang; Fernández Alarcón, Vicenç

2018-01-01

Demand variability is prevailing in the current rapidly changing business environment, which makes it difficult for a retailer that sells multiple substitutable products to determine the optimal inventory. To combat demand uncertainty, both strategies of inventory substitution and probabilistic selling can be used. Although the two strategies differ in operation, we believe that they share a common feature in combating demand uncertainty by encouraging some customers to give up some specific ...

MITI revises outlooks for energy and power demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1987-01-01

The Ministry of International Trade and Industry has revised downward its long-term outlook on energy supply and demand, lowering the estimated primary energy demand for fiscal 2000 from 600 million tons in oil equivalent to 540 MTOE, and reducing total power demand for fiscal 2000 from 899.1 billion kWh to 838 billion. In this content, the outlook for installed nuclear capacity has been revised downward from 62,000 MW to 53,500 MW. This revision of the power supply-demand outlook was reported on Oct. 1 to the supply and demand committee (Chairman - Yoshihiko Morozumi, Adviser to Nippon Schlum-berger) of the Electric Utility Industry Council; the energy supply-demand outlook was decided on Oct. 14 by the MITI Supply and Demand Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee for Energy and reported on Oct. 16 to the conference of ministers concerned with energy. (author)

Production control and supplier selection under demand disruptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xianzhe Chen

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of demand disruptions on production control and supplier selection in a three-echelon supply chain system. The customer demand is modeled as a jump-diffusion process in a continuous-time setting. A two-number production-inventory policy is implemented in the production control model for the manufacturer. The objective is to minimize the long-term average total cost consisting of backlog cost, holding cost, switching cost, and ordering cost. The simulated annealing method is applied to search the optimal critical switching values. Furthermore, an improved analytical hierarchy process (AHP is proposed to select the best supplier, based on quantitative factors such as the optimal long-term total cost obtained through the simulated annealing method under demand disruptions and qualitative factors such as quality and service. Numerical studies are conducted to demonstrate the effects of demand disruptions in the face of various risk scenarios. Managerial insights from simulation results are provided as well. Our approaches can be implemented as the “stress test” for companies in front of various supply chain disruption scenarios.

The world energy demand in 2007: How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? June 9, 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? The growth of energy demand continued to accelerate in 2007 despite soaring prices, to reach 2,8 % (+ 0,3 point compared to 2006). This evolution results from two diverging trends: a shrink in energy consumption in most of OECD countries, except North America, and a strong increase in emerging countries. Within the OECD, two contrasting trends can be reported, that compensate each other partially: the reduction of energy consumption in Japan (-0.8%) and in Europe (-1.2%), particularly significant in the EU-15 (-1.9%); the increase of energy consumption in North America (+2%). Globally, the OECD overall consumption continued to increase slightly (+0.5%), while electricity increased faster (2,1%) and fuels remained stable. Elsewhere, the strong energy demand growth remained very dynamic (+5% for the total demand, 8% for electricity only), driven by China (+7.3%). The world oil demand increased by 1% only, but the demand has focused even more on captive end usages, transports and petrochemistry. The world gasoline and diesel demand increased by around 5,7% in 2007, and represents 53% of the total oil products demand in 2007 (51% in 2006). If gasoline and diesel consumption remained quasi-stable within OECD countries, the growth has been extremely strong in the emerging countries, despite booming oil prices. There are mainly two factors explaining this evolution where both oil demand and oil prices increased: Weak elasticity-prices to the demand in transport and petrochemistry sectors Disconnection of domestic fuel prices in major emerging countries (China, India, Latin America) compared to world oil market prices Another striking point is that world crude oil and condensate production remained almost stable in 2007, hence the entire demand growth was supported by destocking. During the same period, the OPEC production decreased by 1%, mainly due to the production decrease in Saudi Arabia, that is probably more

Assessment of utility side financial benefits of demand side management considering environmental impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Abeygunawardane, Saranga Kumudu

2018-02-01

Any electrical utility prefers to implement demand side management and change the shape of the demand curve in a beneficial manner. This paper aims to assess the financial gains (or losses) to the generating sector through the implementation of demand side management programs. An optimization algorithm is developed to find the optimal generation mix that minimizes the daily total generating cost. This daily total generating cost includes the daily generating cost as well as the environmental damage cost. The proposed optimization algorithm is used to find the daily total generating cost for the base case and for several demand side management programs using the data obtained from the Sri Lankan power system. Results obtained for DSM programs are compared with the results obtained for the base case to assess the financial benefits of demand side management to the generating sector.

Uranium 2009 resources, production and demand

CERN Document Server

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris

2010-01-01

With several countries currently building nuclear power plants and planning the construction of more to meet long-term increases in electricity demand, uranium resources, production and demand remain topics of notable interest. In response to the projected growth in demand for uranium and declining inventories, the uranium industry – the first critical link in the fuel supply chain for nuclear reactors – is boosting production and developing plans for further increases in the near future. Strong market conditions will, however, be necessary to trigger the investments required to meet projected demand. The "Red Book", jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on information compiled in 40 countries, including those that are major producers and consumers of uranium. This 23rd edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1 January 2009, as well as data on global ur...

Scalable video on demand adaptive Internet-based distribution

CERN Document Server

Zink, Michael

2013-01-01

In recent years, the proliferation of available video content and the popularity of the Internet have encouraged service providers to develop new ways of distributing content to clients. Increasing video scaling ratios and advanced digital signal processing techniques have led to Internet Video-on-Demand applications, but these currently lack efficiency and quality. Scalable Video on Demand: Adaptive Internet-based Distribution examines how current video compression and streaming can be used to deliver high-quality applications over the Internet. In addition to analysing the problems

Testing for causality between the foreign direct investment, current account deficit, GDP and total credit: Evidence from G7

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akbas Yusuf Ekrem

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, countries were analyzed between 1990 and 2011 in order to determine whether a causal relationship exists among current account deficit, GDP, foreign direct investment, and total credits of G7. Analysis took into account the cross-sectional dependence and was applied to test the causality among the variables form the panel. Firstly, panel unit root tests were used for determining stationary of variables. As a result of the panel unit root tests, it was found that GDP and foreign direct investment have a stationary structure and that total credits and current account deficit contain unit root. In order to see whether there is a long-term relationship among the variables or not, the panel co-integration test was used. As a result of the test, it was concluded that there is a co-integration relationship among the series. The possibility of a causal relationship was analyzed among the variables using the causality test developed by Elena Ivona Dumitrescu and Christophe Hurlin (2012. Results of the analysis showed a unidirectional causal relationship from current account deficit and foreign direct investment to GDP. Bidirectional causality was found between current account deficit and total credits. Finally, a unidirectional relationship was found from foreign direct investment to current account deficit and total credits.

Demand for Canadian gas in the U.S. market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, L.H.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that Canadian natural gas exports to the United States commenced in 1957 and have now reached 1.3 Tcf per year. Natural gas consumption in the united States is currently 25% of the total energy consumption, which is expected t grow considerably by the year 2000. National security and environmental concerns will make natural gas an increasingly desirable fuel, and U.S. domestic gas reserves will be insufficient to supply the demand growth. Consequently, there is a growing opportunity for increased sales of Canadian natural gas to the united States provided economic, regulatory and political situations do not deprive U.S. consumers of the opportunity to utilize this source of the world's cleanest fuel

Modelling energy demand in the buildings sector within the EU

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O Broin, Eoin

2012-11-01

In the on-going effort within the EU to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and secure future energy supplies, the buildings sector is often referred to as offering a large potential for energy savings. The aim of this thesis is to produce scenarios that highlight the parameters that affect the energy demands and thus potentials for savings of the building sector. Top-down and bottom-up approaches to modelling energy demand in EU buildings are applied in this thesis. The top-down approach uses econometrics to establish the historical contribution of various parameters to energy demands for space and water heating in the residential sectors of four EU countries. The bottom-up approach models the explicit impact of trends in energy efficiency improvement on total energy demand in the EU buildings stock. The two approaches are implemented independently, i.e., the results from the top-down studies do not feed into those from the bottom-up studies or vice versa. The explanatory variables used in the top-down approach are: energy prices; heating degree days, as a proxy for outdoor climate; a linear time trend, as a proxy for technology development; and the lag of energy demand, as a proxy for inertia in the system. In this case, inertia refers to the time it takes to replace space and water heating systems in reaction to price changes. The analysis gives long-term price elasticities of demand as follows: for France, -0.17; for Italy, -0.35; for Sweden, -0.27; and for the UK, -0.35. These results reveal that the price elasticity of demand for space and water heating is inelastic in each of these cases. Nonetheless, scenarios created for the period up to 2050 using these elasticities and an annual price increase of 3 % show that demand can be reduced by more than 1 % per year in France and Sweden and by less than 1 % per year in Italy and the UK. In the bottom-up modelling, varying rates for conversion efficiencies, heating standards for new buildings, end-use efficiency, and

Ad libitum or demand/semi-demand feeding versus scheduled interval feeding for preterm infants.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormick, Felicia M; Tosh, Karen; McGuire, William

2010-02-17

Scheduled interval feeding of prescribed enteral volumes is current standard practice for preterm infants. However, feeding preterm infants in response to their hunger and satiation cues (ad libitum or demand/semi demand) rather than at scheduled intervals might help in the establishment of independent oral feeding, increase nutrient intake and growth rates, and allow earlier hospital discharge. To assess the effect of a policy of feeding preterm infants on an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand basis versus feeding prescribed volumes at scheduled intervals on growth rates and the time to hospital discharge. We used the standard search strategy of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group. This included searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library, Issue 4, 2009), MEDLINE (1966 to Oct 2009), EMBASE (1980 to Oct 2009), CINAHL (1982 to Oct 2009), conference proceedings, and previous reviews. Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials (including cluster randomised trials) that compared a policy of feeding preterm infants on an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand basis versus feeding at scheduled intervals. We used the standard methods of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group with separate evaluation of trial quality and data extraction by two review authors. We found eight randomised controlled trials that compared ad libitum or demand/semi-demand regimens with scheduled interval regimes in preterm infants in the transition phase from intragastric tube to oral feeding. The trials were generally small and of variable methodological quality. The duration of the intervention and the duration of data collection and follow-up in most of the trials was not likely to have allowed detection of measurable effects on growth. Three trials reported that feeding preterm infants using an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand feeding regimen allowed earlier discharge from hospital (by about two to four days) but other trials did not confirm this

ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN A NORTHERN MEXICO METROPOLITAN ECONOMY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas M. Fullerton

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Using an error correction framework, this study analyzes the long- and short-run dynamics of electricity demand in Ciudad Juarez, a large metropolitan economy on Mexico’s northern border. Demand is decomposed into the total number of electricity accounts and electricity usage per customer, each of which is modeled separately. A two-stage least squares approach is used to estimate the per customer electricity demand equations due to the endogeneity of the average price variable. The results indicate sustained growth in population, employment, and income can be expected to exert substantial upward pressure on regional electric power demand. Furthermore, demand is found to be price-inelastic in this metropolitan area, suggesting that rate increases can help raise the revenues necessary to fund expansion of the electrical grid.

Disaster Preparedness Among University Students in Guangzhou, China: Assessment of Status and Demand for Disaster Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Yibing; Liao, Xiaolan; Su, Haihao; Li, Chun; Xiang, Jiagen; Dong, Zhaoyang

2017-06-01

This study had 2 aims. First, we evaluated the current levels of disaster preparedness among university students in southern China. Second, we assessed students' demands for future disaster education. In addition, we examined the influence of demographic factors on current disaster preparedness status and demand. A cross-sectional design was used. The data were collected from 1893 students in 10 universities in the Guangzhou Higher Education Mega (GHEM) center. A self-administered questionnaire developed for this study was administered to assess the current status and demand for disaster education. The results are based on 1764 valid questionnaires. Among the participants, 77.8% reported having had disaster education experiences before, 85.5% indicated their desire for a systematic disaster course, and 75.4% expressed their willingness to take such a course upon its availability. The total mean score for demand for disaster course content (5-point Likert scale) was 4.17±0.84, with items relating to rescue skills given the highest scores. These results suggested that students had high desires for disaster preparedness knowledge, especially knowledge concerning rescue skills. We observed significant differences in disaster education experiences between male and female students and across programs, school years, and home locations. Furthermore, we observed significant differences in demand for disaster course content between male and female students and across universities, student programs, years of school, and students' majors. A systematic disaster course focused on rescue skills is needed by all types of universities. To improve the disaster education system in universities, disaster drills should be performed on a semester basis as a refresher and to enhance disaster preparedness. The government and universities should support building a simulated disaster rescue center and recruit faculty from the emergency department, especially those who have had disaster

75 FR 49930 - Stakeholder Meeting Regarding Re-Evaluation of Currently Approved Total Coliform Analytical Methods

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-16

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9190-2] Stakeholder Meeting Regarding Re-Evaluation of... conferences during which the Agency will have a technical dialogue with stakeholders regarding re-evaluation of currently approved Total Coliform Rule (TCR) analytical methods. At these meetings, stakeholders...

Criteria for demand response systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lampropoulos, I.; Kling, W.L.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Ribeiro, P.F.; Berg, van den J.

2013-01-01

The topic of demand side management is currently becoming more important than ever, in parallel with the further deregulation of the electricity sector, and the increasing integration of renewable energy sources. A historical review of automation integration in power system control assists in

Current self-reported symptoms of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder are associated with total brain volume in healthy adults.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martine Hoogman

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Reduced total brain volume is a consistent finding in children with Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD. In order to get a better understanding of the neurobiology of ADHD, we take the first step in studying the dimensionality of current self-reported adult ADHD symptoms, by looking at its relation with total brain volume. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a sample of 652 highly educated adults, the association between total brain volume, assessed with magnetic resonance imaging, and current number of self-reported ADHD symptoms was studied. The results showed an association between these self-reported ADHD symptoms and total brain volume. Post-hoc analysis revealed that the symptom domain of inattention had the strongest association with total brain volume. In addition, the threshold for impairment coincides with the threshold for brain volume reduction. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This finding improves our understanding of the biological substrates of self-reported ADHD symptoms, and suggests total brain volume as a target intermediate phenotype for future gene-finding in ADHD.

Current Epidemiology of Revision Total Knee Arthroplasty in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Delanois, Ronald E; Mistry, Jaydev B; Gwam, Chukwuweike U; Mohamed, Nequesha S; Choksi, Ujval S; Mont, Michael A

2017-09-01

Revision surgery for failed total knee arthroplasty (TKA) continues to pose a substantial burden for the United States healthcare system. The predominant etiology of TKA failure has changed over time and may vary between studies. This report aims to update the current literature on this topic by using a large national database. Specifically, we analyzed: (1) etiologies for revision TKA; (2) frequencies of revision TKA procedures; (3) various demographics including payer type and region; and (4) the length of stay (LOS) and total charges based on type of revision TKA procedure. The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database was used to identify all revision TKA procedures performed between 2009 and 2013. Clinical, economic, and demographic data were collected and analyzed for 337,597 procedures. Patients were stratified according to etiology of failure, age, sex, race, US census region, and primary payor class. The mean LOS and total charges were also calculated. Infection was the most common etiology for revision TKA (20.4%), closely followed by mechanical loosening (20.3%). The most common revision TKA procedure performed was all component revision (31.3%). Medicare was the primary payor for the greatest proportion of revisions (57.7%). The South census region performed the most revision TKAs (33.2%). The overall mean LOS was 4.5 days, with arthrotomy for removal of prosthesis without replacement procedures accounting for the longest stays (7.8 days). The mean total charge for revision TKAs was $75,028.07. Without appropriate measures in place, the burden of revision TKAs may become overwhelming and pose a strain on providers and institutions. Continued insight into the etiology and epidemiology of revision TKAs may be the principle step towards improving outcomes and mitigating the need for future revisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Household energy demand. Empirical studies concerning Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dargay, J; Lundin, A

1978-06-01

This paper investigates the effects of energy policy on households in Sweden and provides the material necessary for evaluation of current and proposed energy-conservation measures. Emphasis is placed on the impact of enery taxation or price changes on household demand for electricity, heating oil, and gasoline and the consequences of such measures for income distribution. The results of the Swedish studies of household demand for heating oil and gasoline indicate that price changes can have a considerable long run impact on fuel utilization. In the short run, price responsiveness is notably reduced, but it is nevertheless of consequence for energy demand.

Projected national impact of colorectal cancer screening on clinical and economic outcomes and health services demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Ladabaum, Uri; Song, Kenneth

2005-10-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is effective and cost-effective, but the potential national impact of widespread screening is uncertain. It is controversial whether screening colonoscopy can be offered widely and how emerging tests may impact health services demand. Our aim was to produce integrated, comprehensive estimates of the impact of widespread screening on national clinical and economic outcomes and health services demand. We used a Markov model and census data to estimate the national consequences of screening 75% of the US population with conventional and emerging strategies. Screening decreased CRC incidence by 17%-54% to as few as 66,000 cases per year and CRC mortality by 28%-60% to as few as 23,000 deaths per year. With no screening, total annual national CRC-related expenditures were 8.4 US billion dollars. With screening, expenditures for CRC care decreased by 1.5-4.4 US billion dollars but total expenditures increased to 9.2-15.4 US billion dollars. Screening colonoscopy every 10 years required 8.1 million colonoscopies per year including surveillance, with other strategies requiring 17%-58% as many colonoscopies. With improved screening uptake, total colonoscopy demand increased in general, even assuming substantial use of virtual colonoscopy. Despite savings in CRC care, widespread screening is unlikely to be cost saving and may increase national expenditures by 0.8-2.8 US billion dollars per year with conventional tests. The current national endoscopic capacity, as recently estimated, may be adequate to support widespread use of screening colonoscopy in the steady state. The impact of emerging tests on colonoscopy demand will depend on the extent to which they replace screening colonoscopy or increase screening uptake in the population.

Population ageing and healthcare demand: The case of Slovenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Vrhovec, Jure; Tajnikar, Maks

2016-11-01

The aim of this paper is to explore the consequences of demographic ageing on healthcare demand in Slovenia for primary care, secondary care, hospital day-care treatments, and hospitalisations. In the paper, we develop a model for making projections of the total number of treatments using the age-group projection method with the scenario approach. The model allows the number of treatments to be observed with respect to medical services, age groups and main disease groups. The results are presented for the cross-section years 2015, 2025 and 2035. The smallest increase in the number of treatments occurs in primary care, a larger one for secondary care, and the largest for hospital day-care services and hospitalisations (up to 29.9%). The structure of demand will also change. Demand for healthcare services for children and infants will decrease while demand for diseases associated with older age groups will increase, particularly for diseases of the circulatory system, eye and adnexa, and diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs. The results presented in this paper can help improve understanding of similar processes in other countries for total healthcare demand and for changes in the structure of demand. The results show that the healthcare system in Slovenia will face a major additional burden in the next 20 years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling energy demand of Croatian industry sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Medić, Zlatko Bačelić; Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

2014-01-01

Industry represents one of the most interesting sectors when analysing Croatian final energy demand. Croatian industry represents 20% of nation's GDP and employs 25% of total labour force making it a significant subject for the economy. Today, with around 60 PJ of final energy demand...... it is the third most energy intensive sector in Croatia after transport and households. Implementing mechanisms that would lead to improvements in energy efficiency in this sector seems relevant. Through this paper, long-term energy demand projections for Croatian industry will be shown. The central point...... for development of the model will be parameters influencing the industry in Croatia. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model. IED model produces results which can be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy. One of the conclusions shown in this paper is significant...

Electricity demand savings from distributed solar photovoltaics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glassmire, John; Komor, Paul; Lilienthal, Peter

2012-01-01

Due largely to recent dramatic cost reductions, photovoltaics (PVs) are poised to make a significant contribution to electricity supply. In particular, distributed applications of PV on rooftops, brownfields, and other similar applications – hold great technical potential. In order for this potential to be realized, however, PV must be “cost-effective”—that is, it must be sufficiently financially appealing to attract large amounts of investment capital. Electricity costs for most commercial and industrial end-users come in two forms: consumption (kWh) and demand (kW). Although rates vary, for a typical larger commercial or industrial user, demand charges account for about ∼40% of total electricity costs. This paper uses a case study of PV on a large university campus to reveal that even very large PV installations will often provide very small demand reductions. As a result, it will be very difficult for PV to demonstrate cost-effectiveness for large commercial customers, even if PV costs continue to drop. If policymakers would like PV to play a significant role in electricity generation – for economic development, carbon reduction, or other reasons – then rate structures will need significant adjustment, or improved distributed storage technologies will be needed. - Highlights: ► Demand charges typically account for ∼40% of total electricity costs for larger electricity users. ► Distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems provide minimal demand charge reductions. ► As a result, PVs are not a financially viable alternative to centralized electricity. ► Electricity rate structures will need changes for PV to be a major electricity source.

Province gets serious about demand management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2003-01-01

Directives from the Minister to the Ontario Energy Board to review options for demand-side management and demand reduction activities, and discussion papers describing the policy framework needed to implement demand management, are indications of renewed interest by the provincial government in demand-side management of Ontario's electric power supply. This renewed interest comes on the hills of a 5.5 per cent increase in electricity use, a 33 per cent increase in imports, and consumption records broken in 10 of the last 12 months. A 117-page study was released in April by Navigant Consulting, entitled 'Demand response blueprint for Ontario' which estimates that if the Ontario market had 250 MW of additional demand response, customers providing the demand response would have saved $20 million by reducing their demand when HOEP was greater than $120/MWh, while other customers would have saved $170 million due to lower HOEP, and would have enjoyed greater reliability as a result of the increase in reserve margins. Other than price signals to induce customers to save, the Navigant report suggest paying customers not to consume during peak periods. The report estimates that such a policy could generate a total demand response of 350 MW and a $235 million reduction in revenue to generators. The Navigan report also includes a large number of detailed analysis and recommendations. One among them is for the extensive use of interval meters for customers with loads over 200 kW. The report tends to be critical of the recent price freeze ordered by the Ontario government, claiming that the freeze could increase consumption, making prices more volatile and increasing the cost to the government even more. Successful demand response programs from California, New York and the New England states are cited as examples for Ontario to emulate

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

2011-01-01

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

2011-11-15

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

Sulphur demand growing. [Alberta

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1975-01-20

Sulfur markets look better going into 1975 than they have for several years, as North American demand growth is being filled largely by elemental sulfur producers and overseas. Demand is rising as fast as the capacity of Canadian transportation and handling facilities. It will take a long time to make much of a dent in the total Alberta stockpile of 14 million long tons at the end of 1974, with involuntary production from sour gas plants exceeding sales volume since 1972. However, there is some encouragement in the approaching peakout of production combined with a substantial increase in price since the low point of the cycle at the beginning of 1973, and a predicted rise of at least 20% in domestic (North American) sales this year over 1974.

'Marginal Employment' and the Demand for Heterogenous Labour: Empirical Evidence from a Multi-factor Labour Demand Model for Germany

OpenAIRE

Ronny Freier; Viktor Steiner

2007-01-01

We develop a structural multi-factor labour demand model which distinguishes between eight labour categories including non-standard types of employment such as marginal employment. The model is estimated for both the number of workers and total working hours using a new panel data set. For unskilled and skilled workers in full-time employment, we find labour demand elasticities similar to previous estimates for the west German economy. Our new estimates of own-wage elasticities for marginal e...

An assessment of the influence of demand response on demand elasticity in electricity retail market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fonteijn, R.; Babar, M.; Kamphuis, I.G.

2015-01-01

A transition towards a sustainable society is currently ongoing. In the electrical power system, this is reflected by the increasing share of renewable energy sources (RES). The weather dependence of some RES results in intermittent and volatile behaviour, thus matching supply and demand has become

Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yong

In this dissertation, the problem of flexible demand management under time-varying prices is studied. This generic problem has many applications, which usually have multiple periods in which decisions on satisfying demand need to be made, and prices in these periods are time-varying. Examples of such applications include multi-period procurement problem, operating room scheduling, and user-end demand scheduling in the Smart Grid, where the last application is used as the main motivating story throughout the dissertation. The current grid is experiencing an upgrade with lots of new designs. What is of particular interest is the idea of passing time-varying prices that reflect electricity market conditions to end users as incentives for load shifting. One key component, consequently, is the demand management system at the user-end. The objective of the system is to find the optimal trade-off between cost saving and discomfort increment resulted from load shifting. In this dissertation, we approach this problem from the following aspects: (1) construct a generic model, solve for Pareto optimal solutions, and analyze the robust solution that optimizes the worst-case payoffs, (2) extend to a distribution-free model for multiple types of demand (appliances), for which an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is developed, and (3) design other efficient algorithms for practical purposes of the flexible demand management system. We first construct a novel multi-objective flexible demand management model, in which there are a finite number of periods with time-varying prices, and demand arrives in each period. In each period, the decision maker chooses to either satisfy or defer outstanding demand to minimize costs and discomfort over a certain number of periods. We consider both the deterministic model, models with stochastic demand or prices, and when only partial information about the stochastic demand or prices is known. We first analyze the stochastic

Demand management concept and tool in a dynamic context

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, Ankun

2008-01-01

ChainScope B.V. is a startup company that develops supply chain optimization and planning software. The optimization software is currently based on the assumption of stationary demand. However, in real-life situation future demand is forecasted through a combination of time series analysis and human

Residential demand response reduces air pollutant emissions on peak electricity demand days in New York City

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbraith, Nathaniel; Powers, Susan E.

2013-01-01

Many urban areas in the United States have experienced difficulty meeting the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), partially due to pollution from electricity generating units. We evaluated the potential for residential demand response to reduce pollutant emissions on days with above average pollutant emissions and a high potential for poor air quality. The study focused on New York City (NYC) due to non-attainment with NAAQS standards, large exposed populations, and the existing goal of reducing pollutant emissions. The baseline demand response scenario simulated a 1.8% average reduction in NYC peak demand on 49 days throughout the summer. Nitrogen oxide and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter emission reductions were predicted to occur (−70, −1.1 metric tons (MT) annually), although, these were not likely to be sufficient for NYC to meet the NAAQS. Air pollution mediated damages were predicted to decrease by $100,000–$300,000 annually. A sensitivity analysis predicted that substantially larger pollutant emission reductions would occur if electricity demand was shifted from daytime hours to nighttime hours, or the total consumption decreased. Policies which incentivize shifting electricity consumption away from periods of high human and environmental impacts should be implemented, including policies directed toward residential consumers. - Highlights: • The impact of residential demand response on air emissions was modeled. • Residential demand response will decrease pollutant emissions in NYC. • Emissions reductions occur during periods with high potential for poor air quality. • Shifting demand to nighttime hours was more beneficial than to off-peak daytime hours

A joint economic lot-sizing problem with fuzzy demand, defective items and environmental impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Jauhari, W. A.; Laksono, P. W.

2017-11-01

In this paper, a joint economic lot-sizing problem consisting of a vendor and a buyer was proposed. A buyer ordered products from a vendor to fulfill end customer’s demand. A produced a batch of products, and delivered it to the buyer. The production process in the vendor was imperfect and produced a number of defective products. Production rate was assumed to be adjustable to control the output of vendor’s production. A continuous review policy was adopted by the buyer to manage his inventory level. In addition, an average annual demand was considered to be fuzzy rather than constant. The proposed model contributed to the current inventory literature by allowing the inclusion of fuzzy annual demand, imperfect production emission cost, and adjustable production rate. The proposed model also considered carbon emission cost which was resulted from the transportation activity. A mathematical model was developed for obtaining the optimal ordering quantity, safety factor and the number of deliveries so the joint total cost was minimized. Furthermore, an iterative procedure was suggested to determine the optimal solutions.

Home Network Technologies and Automating Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McParland, Charles

2009-12-01

Over the past several years, interest in large-scale control of peak energy demand and total consumption has increased. While motivated by a number of factors, this interest has primarily been spurred on the demand side by the increasing cost of energy and, on the supply side by the limited ability of utilities to build sufficient electricity generation capacity to meet unrestrained future demand. To address peak electricity use Demand Response (DR) systems are being proposed to motivate reductions in electricity use through the use of price incentives. DR systems are also be design to shift or curtail energy demand at critical times when the generation, transmission, and distribution systems (i.e. the 'grid') are threatened with instabilities. To be effectively deployed on a large-scale, these proposed DR systems need to be automated. Automation will require robust and efficient data communications infrastructures across geographically dispersed markets. The present availability of widespread Internet connectivity and inexpensive, reliable computing hardware combined with the growing confidence in the capabilities of distributed, application-level communications protocols suggests that now is the time for designing and deploying practical systems. Centralized computer systems that are capable of providing continuous signals to automate customers reduction of power demand, are known as Demand Response Automation Servers (DRAS). The deployment of prototype DRAS systems has already begun - with most initial deployments targeting large commercial and industrial (C & I) customers. An examination of the current overall energy consumption by economic sector shows that the C & I market is responsible for roughly half of all energy consumption in the US. On a per customer basis, large C & I customers clearly have the most to offer - and to gain - by participating in DR programs to reduce peak demand. And, by concentrating on a small number of relatively

Total kinetic energy in four global eddying ocean circulation models and over 5000 current meter records

KAUST Repository

Scott, Robert B.; Arbic, Brian K.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Coward, Andrew C.; Maltrud, Mathew; Merryfield, William J.; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Varghese, Anson

2010-01-01

We compare the total kinetic energy (TKE) in four global eddying ocean circulation simulations with a global dataset of over 5000, quality controlled, moored current meter records. At individual mooring sites, there was considerable scatter between

Demand for oil and energy in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolf, C. Jr.; Relles, D.A.; Navarro, J.

1980-05-01

How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade. Will their requirements be small and thus fairly insignificant compared with world demand, or large and relatively important. How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs. In this report, we try to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years. Our focus is mainly on the demand for oil, but we also give some attention to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. We have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with our forecasts, and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based. Finally, we consider the forecasts in terms of their implications for US policies concerning the NOLDCs and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues.

Current Trends in Discharge Disposition and Post-discharge Care After Total Joint Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarity, T David; Swall, Marion M

2017-09-01

The purpose of this manuscript is to review published literature over the last 5 years to assess recent trends and influencing factors regarding discharge disposition and post-discharge care following total joint arthroplasty. We evaluated instruments proposed to predict a patient's discharge disposition and summarize reports investigating the safety in sending more patients home by reviewing complications and readmission rates. Current literature supports decreased length of hospital stay and increased discharge to home with cost savings and stable readmission rates. Surgeons with defined clinical pathways and those who shape patient expectations may more effectively control costs than those without defined pathways. Further research is needed analyzing best practices in care coordination, managing patient expectations, and cost-effective analysis of home discharge while at the same time ensuring patient outcomes are optimized following total joint arthroplasty.

Influence of total beam current on HRTEM image resolution in differentially pumped ETEM with nitrogen gas.

Science.gov (United States)

Bright, A N; Yoshida, K; Tanaka, N

2013-01-01

Environmental transmission electron microscopy (ETEM) enables the study of catalytic and other reaction processes as they occur with Angstrom-level resolution. The microscope used is a dedicated ETEM (Titan ETEM, FEI Company) with a differential pumping vacuum system and apertures, allowing aberration corrected high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) imaging to be performed with gas pressures up to 20 mbar in the sample area and with significant advantages over membrane-type E-cell holders. The effect on image resolution of varying the nitrogen gas pressure, electron beam current density and total beam current were measured using information limit (Young's fringes) on a standard cross grating sample and from silicon crystal lattice imaging. As expected, increasing gas pressure causes a decrease in HRTEM image resolution. However, the total electron beam current also causes big changes in the image resolution (lower beam current giving better resolution), whereas varying the beam current density has almost no effect on resolution, a result that has not been reported previously. This behavior is seen even with zero-loss filtered imaging, which we believe shows that the drop in resolution is caused by elastic scattering at gas ions created by the incident electron beam. Suitable conditions for acquiring high resolution images in a gas environment are discussed. Lattice images at nitrogen pressures up to 16 mbar are shown, with 0.12 nm information transfer at 4 mbar. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The United States rheumatology workforce: supply and demand, 2005-2025.

Science.gov (United States)

Deal, Chad L; Hooker, Roderick; Harrington, Timothy; Birnbaum, Neal; Hogan, Paul; Bouchery, Ellen; Klein-Gitelman, Marisa; Barr, Walter

2007-03-01

To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US. A supply model was developed using the age and sex distribution of current physicians, retirement and mortality rates, the number of fellowship slots and fill rates, and practice patterns of rheumatologists. A Markov projection model was used to project needs in 5-year increments from 2005 to 2025. The number of rheumatologists for adult patients in the US in 2005 is 4,946. Male and female rheumatologists are equally distributed up to age 44; above age 44, men predominate. The percent of women in adult rheumatology is projected to increase from 30.2% in 2005 to 43.6% in 2025. The mean number of visits per rheumatologist per year is 3,758 for male rheumatologists and 2,800 for female rheumatologists. Assuming rheumatology supply and demand are in equilibrium in 2005, the demand for rheumatologists in 2025 is projected to exceed supply by 2,576 adult and 33 pediatric rheumatologists. The primary factors in the excess demand are an aging population which will increase the number of people with rheumatic disorders, growth in the Gross Domestic Product, and flat rheumatology supply due to fixed numbers entering the workforce and to retirements. The productivity of younger rheumatologists and women, who will make up a greater percentage of the future workforce, may also have important effects on supply. Unknown effects that could influence these projections include technology advances, more efficient practice methods, changes in insurance reimbursements, and shifting lifestyles. Current data suggest that the pediatric rheumatology workforce is experiencing a substantial excess of demand versus supply. Based on assessment of supply and demand under current scenarios, the demand for rheumatologists is expected to exceed supply in the coming decades. Strategies for the profession to adapt to this changing health care landscape include increasing

Energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing: a two-stage model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borges, A.M.; Pereira, A.M.

1992-01-01

We use a two-stage model of factor demand to estimate the parameters determining energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing. In the first stage, a capital-labor-energy-materials framework is used to analyze the substitutability between energy as a whole and other factors of production. In the second stage, total energy demand is decomposed into oil, coal and electricity demands. The two stages are fully integrated since the energy composite used in the first stage and its price are obtained from the second stage energy sub-model. The estimates obtained indicate that energy demand in manufacturing responds significantly to price changes. In addition, estimation results suggest that there are important substitution possibilities among energy forms and between energy and other factors of production. The role of price changes in energy-demand forecasting, as well as in energy policy in general, is clearly established. (author)

EHV transmission maintenance. A total asset strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bronsdon, J.A.N.

1996-01-01

For countries whose economies are rapidly expanding, the demand for power, and in particular electricity, is resulting in rapid expansions of the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. This means that a new plant is being installed which, apart from some minor post commissioning problems, will be free from major maintenance for several years to come. Consequently, in such cases, maintenance is confined to basic annual shutdown checks and routine online monitoring. As equipment and plant age it is important to commence planning for additional maintenance over and above these basic annual checks; to monitor performance; to monitor faults and defects and to use that information to engineer out design faults, to influence current maintenance techniques and to influence future procurement specifications. Also, provided that sufficient information is available, informed decisions can be taken as to when a power plant should be decommissioned or refurbished. This process can be described as a total asset management strategy covering all decisions from procurement through to commissioning, ongoing maintenance, refurbishment, decommissioning and reappraisal of specifications for future procurement. Based upon the author's experience within the United Kingdom Electricity Supply industry, a total asset strategy will be proposed for EHV transmission plant that will optimise current and future expenditure while maximizing reliability and minimising downtime. 1 ref., 5 figs

Technological changes, new materials, and their impact on the demand for minerals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogich, D.G.

1991-01-01

Almost all mineral commodities compete in an international market, and changing technologies and preferences can impact this materials market to either increase or decrease the demand for specific minerals. This paper presents information on the changes we are seeing in materials usage in the United States, some specific examples of market penetration and methods to evaluate this, and some preliminary data on worldwide trends. Traditionally, evaluating the viability of a mineral venture involves the estimation of anticipated costs, production rates, mine life, and discount rates. These estimated costs are then compared with current and expected future prices to see if the necessary return on investment is likely to be generated. Additionally, an examination of the current, and expected future competition in the market is certainly of interest since an assessment of where the operation's costs fall in relation to the total world supply determines how far demand/prices can fall before stronger operations can supply the whole market. Feedstock price has been the traditional measure in the minerals community, and most producers think of themselves as suppliers of particular commodities in competition with other similar suppliers. However, this approach must be altered when we seek to evaluate how individual commodities compete in a market where substitution is expanding

The job demands-resources model of burnout.

Science.gov (United States)

Demerouti, E; Bakker, A B; Nachreiner, F; Schaufeli, W B

2001-06-01

The job demands-resources (JD-R) model proposes that working conditions can be categorized into 2 broad categories, job demands and job resources. that are differentially related to specific outcomes. A series of LISREL analyses using self-reports as well as observer ratings of the working conditions provided strong evidence for the JD-R model: Job demands are primarily related to the exhaustion component of burnout, whereas (lack of) job resources are primarily related to disengagement. Highly similar patterns were observed in each of 3 occupational groups: human services, industry, and transport (total N = 374). In addition, results confirmed the 2-factor structure (exhaustion and disengagement) of a new burnout instrument--the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory--and suggested that this structure is essentially invariant across occupational groups.

Order of current variance and diffusivity in the rate one totally asymmetric zero range process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Balázs, M.; Komjáthy, J.

2008-01-01

We prove that the variance of the current across a characteristic is of order t 2/3 in a stationary constant rate totally asymmetric zero range process, and that the diffusivity has order t 1/3. This is a step towards proving universality of this scaling behavior in the class of one-dimensional

Forecasting Hourly Water Demands With Seasonal Autoregressive Models for Real-Time Application

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jinduan; Boccelli, Dominic L.

2018-02-01

Consumer water demands are not typically measured at temporal or spatial scales adequate to support real-time decision making, and recent approaches for estimating unobserved demands using observed hydraulic measurements are generally not capable of forecasting demands and uncertainty information. While time series modeling has shown promise for representing total system demands, these models have generally not been evaluated at spatial scales appropriate for representative real-time modeling. This study investigates the use of a double-seasonal time series model to capture daily and weekly autocorrelations to both total system demands and regional aggregated demands at a scale that would capture demand variability across a distribution system. Emphasis was placed on the ability to forecast demands and quantify uncertainties with results compared to traditional time series pattern-based demand models as well as nonseasonal and single-seasonal time series models. Additional research included the implementation of an adaptive-parameter estimation scheme to update the time series model when unobserved changes occurred in the system. For two case studies, results showed that (1) for the smaller-scale aggregated water demands, the log-transformed time series model resulted in improved forecasts, (2) the double-seasonal model outperformed other models in terms of forecasting errors, and (3) the adaptive adjustment of parameters during forecasting improved the accuracy of the generated prediction intervals. These results illustrate the capabilities of time series modeling to forecast both water demands and uncertainty estimates at spatial scales commensurate for real-time modeling applications and provide a foundation for developing a real-time integrated demand-hydraulic model.

Supplies should match growing demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmusen, H.J.

1997-01-01

The natural gas industry is currently enjoying healthy growth prospects. Not only is the demand for natural gas steadily growing; the outlook for increasing gas reserves is promising as well. The success of natural gas in the marketplace reflects, on one hand, continuous attention paid to public and customer requirements and, on the other hand, the ability of the gas industry to direct technological developments toward the increasing public demand for gas at competitive market prices supplied in a reliable, safe and environmentally friendly manner. In the past, the gas industry has been involved in the development of technologies for everything from gas production to the end user and from borehole to burner tip, and the author believes that the industry must continue or even increase its emphasis on technology in the future in order to capture new market opportunities. He explains this by looking at the supply side, the demand side and the structural side of the business

the determinants of demand for public transport services in kumasi

African Journals Online (AJOL)

dmosman.admin

The objective of the study was to establish the major factors influencing demand as well as de- velop a demand model for urban passenger transport services in Kumasi, Ghana. ... Cities in developing countries often spend be- ... the total urban road network was in “Good” ... several other functions of a national, regional.

Demand for food products in Finland: A demand system approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilkka P. Laurila

1994-07-01

Full Text Available The study was concerned with the estimation of food-demand parameters in a system context. The patterns of food consumption in Finland were presented over the period 1950-1991, and a complete demand system of food expenditures was estimated. Price and expenditure elasticities of demand were derived, and the results were used to obtain projections on future consumption. While the real expenditure on food has increased, the budget share of food has decreased. In the early 19505, combined Food-at-Home and Food-away-from-Home corresponded to about 40% of consumers’ total expenditure. In 1991 the share was 28%. There was a shift to meals eaten outside the home. While the budget share of Food-away-from-Home increased from 3% to 7% over the observation period, Food-at-Home fell from 37% to 21%, and Food-at-Home excluding Alcoholic Drinks fell from 34% to 16%. Within Food-at-Home, the budget shares of the broad aggregate groups, Animalia (food from animal sources, Beverages, and Vegetablia (food from vegetable sources, remained about the same over the four decades, while structural change took place within the aggregates. Within Animalia, consumption shifted from Dairy Products (other than Fresh Milk to Meat and Fish. Within Beverages, consumption shifted from Fresh Milk and Hot Drinks to Alcoholic Drinks and Soft Drinks. Within Vegetablia, consumption shifted from Flour to Fruits, while the shares of Bread and Cake and Vegetables remained about the same. As the complete demand system, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS was employed. The conventional AIDS was extended by developing a dynamic generalisation of the model and allowing for systematic shifts in structural relationships over time. A four-stage budgeting system was specified, consisting of seven sub-systems (groups, and covering 18 food categories. Tests on parameter restrictions and misspecification tests were used to choose the most preferred model specification for each group. Generally

China expands refining sector to handle booming oil demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1993-01-01

China's refining sector is in the midst of a major expansion and reorganization in response to booming domestic demand for petroleum products. Plans call for hiking crude processing capacity to 3.9 million b/d in 1995 from the current 3.085 million b/d. Much of that 26% increase will come where the products demand growth is the strongest: China's coastal provinces, notably those in the southeast. Despite the demand surge, China's refineries operated at only 74% of capacity in 1991, and projections for 1992 weren't much better. Domestic crude supply is limited because of Beijing's insistence on maintaining crude export levels, a major source of hard currency foreign exchange. The paper discusses the superheated demand; exports and imports; the refining infrastructure; the Shenzhen refinery; Hong Kong demand; southeast coast demand; 1993 plans; and foreign investment

Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

With several countries currently building nuclear power plants and planning the construction of more to meet long-term increases in electricity demand, uranium resources, production and demand remain topics of notable interest. In response to the projected growth in demand for uranium and declining inventories, the uranium industry - the first critical link in the fuel supply chain for nuclear reactors - is boosting production and developing plans for further increases in the near future. Strong market conditions will, however, be necessary to trigger the investments required to meet projected demand. The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on information compiled in 40 countries, including those that are major producers and consumers of uranium. This 23. edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1 January 2009, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres around the world, as well as from countries developing production centres for the first time. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2035 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues

Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Amin

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

What would menthol smokers do if menthol in cigarettes were banned? Behavioral intentions and simulated demand.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Richard J; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Carter, Lawrence P; Cummings, K Michael

2012-07-01

  The US Food and Drug Administration must consider whether to ban the use of menthol in cigarettes. This study examines how current smokers might respond to such a ban on menthol cigarettes.   Convenience sample of adolescent and adult smokers recruited from an online survey panel.   United States, 2010.   A total of 471 adolescent and adult current cigarette smokers.   Respondents were asked a series of questions about how they might react if menthol cigarettes were banned. In addition, participants completed a simulation purchase task to estimate the demand for menthol and non-menthol cigarettes across a range of prices.   Overall, 36.1% of respondents said they always (18.9%) or usually (17.2%) smoked menthol cigarettes. When asked how they might respond to a ban on menthol cigarettes, 35% of current menthol smokers said they would stop smoking, and 25% said they would 'find a way to buy a menthol brand'. Those who reported they might quit tended to have greater current intentions to quit [odds ratio (OR) = 4.47], while those who reported that they might seek illicit menthol cigarettes were far less likely to report current intentions to quit (OR = 0.06). Estimates for demand elasticity for preferred cigarette type were similar for menthol (α = 0.0051) and non-menthol (α = 0.0049) smokers. Demand elasticity and peak consumption were related to usual cigarette type and cigarettes smoked per day, but did not appear to differ by race, gender or age.   Preliminary evidence suggests that a significant minority of smokers of menthol cigarettes in the United States would try to stop smoking altogether if such cigarettes were banned. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

VuFind: eBooks on Demand Suchmaschine

OpenAIRE

Gstrein, Silvia

2011-01-01

The eBooks-on-Demand (EOD) network provides a trans-European digital document delivery service for end-users from all over the world offering digitization on demand of the public domain holdings of participating libraries. Currently the EOD network comprises over 30 libraries from 12 European countries. The service is offered through „EOD buttons“ placed at each record in the different library catalogues. Already in the first years of the service a common interface to search for all books off...

Design of demand side response model in energy internet demonstration park

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Q.; Liu, D. N.

2017-08-01

The implementation of demand side response can bring a lot of benefits to the power system, users and society, but there are still many problems in the actual operation. Firstly, this paper analyses the current situation and problems of demand side response. On this basis, this paper analyses the advantages of implementing demand side response in the energy Internet demonstration park. Finally, the paper designs three kinds of feasible demand side response modes in the energy Internet demonstration park.

Environmental assessment of current and future Swiss electricity supply options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauer, Christian; Heck, Thomas; Hirschberg, Stefan; Dones, Roberto

2008-01-01

Options for near future electricity supply are currently one of the main topics in the Swiss energy policy debate. Contrary to the total energy demand per capita the trend of rising electricity demand per capita is still visible. This paper presents a comparative environmental assessment of a broad portfolio of current and future electricity generation technologies including nuclear, fossil, and renewable power plants with their associated energy chains. The evaluation, based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), is carried out quantifying ten different environmental indicators, grouped in the categories greenhouse gas emissions, consumption of resources, waste, and impact on ecosystems. Hydropower shows minimal environmental impacts for all indicators; for other systems, the picture is diverse. The comparison of non-aggregated indicators allows preliminary conclusions about the environmental performance of the assessed systems. Establishing ranking of technologies calls for aggregating the indicators, which can be done by weighting of the indicators based on individual or stakeholder group preferences, either within a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework or with Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods. Calculating total costs of electricity by adding external costs due to impacts on human health and ecosystems to the electricity production costs poses another option for ranking of technologies. (authors)

Impact of active and break wind spells on the demand-supply balance in wind energy in India

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, Sumeet; Deo, M. C.; Ghosh, Subimal

2018-02-01

With an installed capacity of over 19,000 MW, the wind power currently accounts for almost 70% of the total installed capacity among the renewable energy sector in India. The extraction of wind power mainly depends on prevailing meteorology which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. The monsoon season is characterized by significant fluctuations in between periods of wet and dry spells. During the dry spells, the demand for power from agriculture and cooling equipment increases, whereas during the wet periods, such demand reduces, although, at the same time, the power supply increases because of strong westerly winds contributing to an enhanced production of wind energy. At this backdrop, we aim to assess the impact of intra-seasonal wind variability on the balance of energy supply and demand during monsoon seasons in India. Further, we explore the probable cause of wind variability by relating it to El Nino events. It is observed that the active and break phases in wind significantly impact the overall wind potential output. Although the dry spells are generally found to reduce the overall wind potential, their impact on the potential seems to have declined after the year 2000. The impact of meteorological changes on variations in wind power studied in this work should find applications typically in taking investment decisions on conventional generation facilities, like thermal, which are currently used to maintain the balance of power supply and demand.

Capturing well-being in activity pattern models within activity-based travel demand models.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-04-01

The activity-based approach which is based on the premise that the demand for travel is derived : from the demand for activities, currently constitutes the state of the art in metropolitan travel : demand forecasting and particularly in a form known ...

Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

Science.gov (United States)

Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

2002-01-01

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Sallaba

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production supply–demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell, hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply

Strategies for Demand Response in Commercial Buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watson, David S.; Kiliccote, Sila; Motegi, Naoya; Piette, Mary Ann

2006-06-20

This paper describes strategies that can be used in commercial buildings to temporarily reduce electric load in response to electric grid emergencies in which supplies are limited or in response to high prices that would be incurred if these strategies were not employed. The demand response strategies discussed herein are based on the results of three years of automated demand response field tests in which 28 commercial facilities with an occupied area totaling over 11 million ft{sup 2} were tested. Although the demand response events in the field tests were initiated remotely and performed automatically, the strategies used could also be initiated by on-site building operators and performed manually, if desired. While energy efficiency measures can be used during normal building operations, demand response measures are transient; they are employed to produce a temporary reduction in demand. Demand response strategies achieve reductions in electric demand by temporarily reducing the level of service in facilities. Heating ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting are the systems most commonly adjusted for demand response in commercial buildings. The goal of demand response strategies is to meet the electric shed savings targets while minimizing any negative impacts on the occupants of the buildings or the processes that they perform. Occupant complaints were minimal in the field tests. In some cases, ''reductions'' in service level actually improved occupant comfort or productivity. In other cases, permanent improvements in efficiency were discovered through the planning and implementation of ''temporary'' demand response strategies. The DR strategies that are available to a given facility are based on factors such as the type of HVAC, lighting and energy management and control systems (EMCS) installed at the site.

The future of radiation oncology in the United States from 2010 to 2020: will supply keep pace with demand?

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Benjamin D; Haffty, Bruce G; Wilson, Lynn D; Smith, Grace L; Patel, Akshar N; Buchholz, Thomas A

2010-12-10

Prior studies forecasted an incipient shortage of medical oncologists as a result of the aging US population, but the radiation oncology workforce has not been studied. Accordingly, we projected demand for radiation therapy and supply of radiation oncologists in 2010 and 2020 to determine whether a similar shortage may exist for this specialty. Demand for radiation therapy in 2010 and 2020 was estimated by multiplying current radiation utilization rates (as calculated with Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data) by population projections from the Census Bureau. Supply of radiation oncologists was projected using data from the American Board of Radiology inclusive of current radiation oncologists and active residents, accounting for variation in full-time equivalent status and expected survival by age and sex. Between 2010 and 2020, the total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 22%, from 470,000 per year to 575,000 per year. In contrast, assuming that the current graduation rate of 140 residents per year remains constant, the number of full-time equivalent radiation oncologists is expected to increase by only 2%, from 3,943 to 4,022. The size of residency training classes for the years 2014 to 2019 would have to double to 280 residents per year in order for growth in supply of radiation oncologists to equal expected growth in demand. Demand for radiation therapy is expected to grow 10 times faster than supply between 2010 and 2020. Research is needed to explore strategies to enhance capacity to deliver quality radiation therapy despite increased patient loads.

Future demand for electricity in Nigeria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibitoye, F.I.; Adenikinju, A.

2007-01-01

Availability and reliability of electricity supplies have always been vexed issue in Nigeria. With an estimated population of 130 million people in AD 2005, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and belongs to the group of countries with the lowest electricity consumption per capita in the continent. Nigeria is also ranked among the poorest countries in the world. This paper examines the likely trend in the demand for electricity over the next 25 years under the assumptions that (i) there is a rapid economic development such that Nigeria transforms from low- to middle-income economy during this period, (ii) Nigeria meets the millennium development goals (MDG) in AD 2015, and (iii) the country achieves the status of an industrializing nation. For these to happen, this paper projects that electric-power generation will have to rise from the current capacity of 6500 MW to over 160 GW in AD 2030. This level of supply will be significant enough to increase the per capita electricity consumption to about 5000 kWh per capita by the year 2030. Even then, this just compares with the AD 2003 per capital consumption of some industrializing countries. Analysis of the level of investment required to meet the projected power demand indicates that annual investment cost will rise from US3.8 billion in AD 2006 to a peak of US21 billion in AD 2028. The total investment stream over the 25 year period comes to US262 billion or roughly US10 billion per annum. (author)

PULP DEMAND IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edmilson Santos Cruz

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This study aimed at analyzing the international pulp market, taking into account themain exporting countries and importing regions, with the objective of estimating, for each market, theown-price and cross-price elasticity in relation to the demand of the pulp, differentiated for country oforigin. The model considers that imports are differentiated by origin; therefore they are not perfect substitutes. The demand from Europe, North America and the Rest of the World for the pulp from theUnited States,Canada, Sweden, Finland, Portugal and Brazil was inelastic. The Asian demand for thissome pulp was elastic. Europe and the Rest of the World showed negative cross-price elasticity, i. e.,and the imported pulp from other countries are complementary products. North America and Asiashowed positive crow-price elasticity, i. e., they consider the pulp produced in other countries assubstitute products. The net effect of the variation on the price of pulp in a country h, over the amountof pulp that goes to the region i depends on the matching of values related to the elasticity ofsubstitution and the price elasticity of the total demand.

Does Knowledge Contribute to the Acceptance of Demand Response?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salla Annala

2014-03-01

Full Text Available More flexible demand side would benefit the electricity markets, networks and sustainable power generation in many ways. The success of demand response programs, however, relies on consumer acceptance. This paper reviews previous studies about acceptability of different kinds of residential demand response programs. Furthermore, it discusses whether consumers who are more aware of the principles and benefits of demand response have more positive attitudes towards demand response programs. The results of the literature review and two survey studies suggest that price and security of supply are currently bigger motives to change consumption behaviour than environmental issues and that the savings expected to trigger any action (and to lead to lasting change in behaviour may be relatively high. Therefore, the framing of demand response programs goals may affect the acceptance. Additionally, consumers seem to prefer simple price structures that remain constant for a long time to more dynamic options.

Enabling technologies for demand management: Transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Roderick A.

2008-01-01

Rising transport demand is likely to be the biggest hurdle to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. Globally and nationally, transport is consuming an ever increasing share of our total energy use. Furthermore, the bulk of energy used in transport comes from the burning of petroleum products. This brief paper summarises options arising from the two routes to reduce energy demand in transport: improved and more efficient use of existing and possible new transport modes, and the reduction of transport demand. In both areas, the prospects in the immediate and longer-term future are hedged with difficulties. Automobiles and aircraft have improved considerably in recent decades, but future improvements are likely to be incremental. The introduction of hydrogen as a fuel is appealing, but there are technical problems to be solved. Active reduction of demand for transport will require a decoupling of the link between demand and growth in gross domestic product. Globally, this will be very difficult to achieve. Various modes of public transport exist that are efficient in terms of their energy use per passenger kilometre. But they need large investments to make them more attractive than the automobile. However, population concentration in mega-cities, allied with congestion, will make such innovation essential. Policy measures can be assisted in their implementation by new technology, but will remain politically problematic

Demand Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

Uncapacitated facility location problem with self-serving demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E Monabbati

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In classical uncapacitated facility location problems (UFLP the goal is to satisfy requirements of some demand points by setting up some servers, among potential facility locations, such that the total cost including service costs and fixed costs are minimized. In this paper a generalization of UFLP is considered in which some demand points, called self-serving, could be served exclusively by a new server at that point. Numerical experiments show that near optimal solutions are achieved by the proposed method.

Alpine Skiing With total knee ArthroPlasty (ASWAP)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koesters, A.; Poetzelsberger, B.; Dela, F.

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to monitor the long-term effects of skiing on health-related parameters and implant related factors like loosening and wear in patients with total knee arthroplasty. This paper describes the overall study design, general demographics, and physiological demand of the inte......The aim of this study was to monitor the long-term effects of skiing on health-related parameters and implant related factors like loosening and wear in patients with total knee arthroplasty. This paper describes the overall study design, general demographics, and physiological demand...

Gas demand to rise in the Usa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2000-01-01

Could US consumption of natural gas rise by as much as 13 quadrillion Btu (quads) over the next 20 years? A new study conducted for the American Gas Foundation by Washington Policy and Analysis says it's certainly a possibility if appropriate policies are implemented. 'Fueling the Future: Natural Gas and New Technologies for a Cleaner 21. Century', confirms what natural gas industry professionals have long suspected: changes in US energy policy that favor increased use of natural gas could improve air quality, conserve energy and reduce reliance on imported oil from politically unstable countries. Consequently, the study forecasts that the environmental, economic and efficiency advantages of natural gas-combined with advances in gas-related technologies and the introduction of new end-use technologies - could help push. US gas consumption into the 35-quad range over the next two decades. Currently, American gas demand is close to 22 quads a year. The study tracks two scenarios: a 'current projection', which shows gas demand reaching nearly 30 quads by 2020, and an 'accelerated projection', which foresees demand topping 35 quads by then based on the adoption of national policies encouraging greater use of natural gas. (authors)

Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law.

Science.gov (United States)

Painter, Page R

2005-11-10

Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent alpha in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4). The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate.

The energy demand in the Narino Department

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

2000-01-01

In the object of making a first approach of regional energy requirements analysis and the good way of satisfying them, the UPME undertook a global energy study for the Narino Department. In this study (UPME 1999) was carried out an analysis of the energy demand and of the socioeconomic factors that determine it; they were also studied the consumptions and the current energy offer and the alternatives of future evolution, with the purpose of having the basic tools of a departmental energy plan. The present article refers specifically to the analysis of the demand and it seeks to show the readers the complexity and the volume of necessary information to carry out the demand studies. They are multiple factors that determine the energy demand in the Narino Department. The size, growth populations, geographical distribution and cultural characteristic, the border condition, the faulty infrastructure of communications, the agricultural economic structure and the low entrance per capita

Alberta's reserves 2004 and supply/demand outlook 2005-2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burrowes, A.; Marsh, R.; Ramdin, N.; Evans, C.; Kirsch, M.A.; Philp, L.; Fujda, M.; Stenson, J.; Sadler, K.; Sankey, G.; Hill, C.; Rahnama, F.; Habib, G.; MacGillivray, J.

2005-01-01

This document presents information on the state of reserves, supply, and demand for Alberta's energy resources including bitumen, crude oil, coalbed methane (CBM), conventional natural gas, natural gas liquids, sulphur, and coal. Estimates of initial reserves, remaining established reserves, and ultimate potential were also included, along with a 10-year supply and demand forecast for Alberta's energy resources. The document presents major forecast assumptions that influence Alberta's energy supply and demand. Some of the main variables affecting energy supply and demand include the global oil market, energy prices, Canadian economic performance and the economic outlook for Alberta. The development of Alberta's energy resources depends on reserve supply, costs of development, energy demands, conservation, and social, economic and environmental considerations. In 2004, raw bitumen production continued to grow and accounted for 69 per cent of Alberta's total crude oil and bitumen production. The value-added process of upgrading raw bitumen to synthetic crude oil was also expanded in 2004. Natural gas production from all sources in Alberta increased by 1 per cent compared with 2003. CBM development also increased greatly in 2004. Although it accounted for 80 per cent of the cumulative CBM production to date, it only contributed 0.5 per cent of the provincial total natural gas production. It is expected that CBM development will continue to increase in the coming years. For that reason, a separate estimate of CBM reserves was included. tabs., figs

Demand for luxury cars in China: development, trends and prospects

OpenAIRE

Heinonen, Tommi

2014-01-01

Purpose of this thesis was to investigate what is demand for luxury cars in People's Republic of China and how it has developed, what trends there are and what direction development is going currently. The topic of this thesis was selected based on how interesting it is and how current the topic is at the moment. Objective was to find out what is the demand of luxury cars in China, what kind of buyers Chinese consumers are in field of luxury cars, what trends there are and what are the charac...

Local muscle metabolic demand induced by neuromuscular electrical stimulation and voluntary contractions at different force levels: a NIRS study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Makii Muthalib

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Functional Muscle metabolic demand during contractions evoked by neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES has been consistently documented to be greater than voluntary contractions (VOL at the same force level (10-50% maximal voluntary contraction-MVC. However, we have shown using a near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS technique that local muscle metabolic demand is similar between NMES and VOL performed at MVC levels, thus controversy exists. This study therefore compared biceps brachii muscle metabolic demand (tissue oxygenation index-TOI and total hemoglobin volume-tHb during a 10s isometric contraction of the elbow flexors between NMES (stimulation frequency of 30Hz and current level to evoke 30% MVC and VOL at 30% MVC (VOL-30%MVC and MVC (VOL-MVC level in 8 healthy men (23-33-y. Greater changes in TOI and tHb induced by NMES than VOL-30%MVC confirm previous studies of a greater local metabolic demand for NMES than VOL at the same force level. The same TOI and tHb changes for NMES and VOL-MVC suggest that local muscle metabolic demand and intramuscular pressure were similar between conditions. In conclusion, these findings indicate that NMES induce a similar local muscle metabolic demand as that of maximal VOL.

Local Muscle Metabolic Demand Induced by Neuromuscular Electrical Stimulation and Voluntary Contractions at Different Force Levels: A NIRS Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Muthalib, Makii; Kerr, Graham; Nosaka, Kazunori; Perrey, Stephane

2016-06-13

Functional Muscle metabolic demand during contractions evoked by neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) has been consistently documented to be greater than voluntary contractions (VOL) at the same force level (10-50% maximal voluntary contraction-MVC). However, we have shown using a near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique that local muscle metabolic demand is similar between NMES and VOL performed at MVC levels, thus controversy exists. This study therefore compared biceps brachii muscle metabolic demand (tissue oxygenation index-TOI and total hemoglobin volume-tHb) during a 10s isometric contraction of the elbow flexors between NMES (stimulation frequency of 30Hz and current level to evoke 30% MVC) and VOL at 30% MVC (VOL-30%MVC) and MVC (VOL-MVC) level in 8 healthy men (23-33-y). Greater changes in TOI and tHb induced by NMES than VOL-30%MVC confirm previous studies of a greater local metabolic demand for NMES than VOL at the same force level. The same TOI and tHb changes for NMES and VOL-MVC suggest that local muscle metabolic demand and intramuscular pressure were similar between conditions. In conclusion, these findings indicate that NMES induce a similar local muscle metabolic demand as that of maximal VOL.

Flexible demand in the GB domestic electricity sector in 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drysdale, Brian; Wu, Jianzhong; Jenkins, Nick

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Annual domestic demand by category and daily flexible load profiles are shown to 2030. • Valuable flexible demand requires loads to be identifiable, accessible, and useful. • The extent of flexible demand varies significantly on a diurnal and seasonal basis. • Barriers to accessing domestic demand include multiple low value loads and apathy. • Existing market structure a barrier to fully rewarding individual load flexibility. - Abstract: In order to meet greenhouse gas emissions targets the Great Britain (GB) future electricity supply will include a higher fraction of non-dispatchable generation, increasing opportunities for demand side management to maintain a supply/demand balance. This paper examines the extent of flexible domestic demand (FDD) in GB, its usefulness in system balancing and appropriate incentives to encourage consumers to participate. FDD, classified as electric space and water heating (ESWH), and cold and wet appliances, amounts to 59 TW h in 2012 (113 TW h total domestic demand) and is calculated to increase to 67 TW h in 2030. Summer and winter daily load profiles for flexible loads show significant seasonal and diurnal variations in the total flexible load and between load categories. Low levels of reflective consumer engagement with electricity consumption and a resistance to automation present barriers to effective access to FDD. A value of £1.97/household/year has been calculated for cold appliance loads used for frequency response in 2030, using 2013 market rates. The introduction of smart meters in GB by 2020 will allow access to FDD for system balancing. The low commercial value of individual domestic loads increases the attractiveness of non-financial incentives to fully exploit FDD. It was shown that appliance loads have different characteristics which can contribute to an efficient power system in different ways

Climate change and peak demand for electricity: Evaluating policies for reducing peak demand under different climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Anthony, Abigail Walker

This research focuses on the relative advantages and disadvantages of using price-based and quantity-based controls for electricity markets. It also presents a detailed analysis of one specific approach to quantity based controls: the SmartAC program implemented in Stockton, California. Finally, the research forecasts electricity demand under various climate scenarios, and estimates potential cost savings that could result from a direct quantity control program over the next 50 years in each scenario. The traditional approach to dealing with the problem of peak demand for electricity is to invest in a large stock of excess capital that is rarely used, thereby greatly increasing production costs. Because this approach has proved so expensive, there has been a focus on identifying alternative approaches for dealing with peak demand problems. This research focuses on two approaches: price based approaches, such as real time pricing, and quantity based approaches, whereby the utility directly controls at least some elements of electricity used by consumers. This research suggests that well-designed policies for reducing peak demand might include both price and quantity controls. In theory, sufficiently high peak prices occurring during periods of peak demand and/or low supply can cause the quantity of electricity demanded to decline until demand is in balance with system capacity, potentially reducing the total amount of generation capacity needed to meet demand and helping meet electricity demand at the lowest cost. However, consumers need to be well informed about real-time prices for the pricing strategy to work as well as theory suggests. While this might be an appropriate assumption for large industrial and commercial users who have potentially large economic incentives, there is not yet enough research on whether households will fully understand and respond to real-time prices. Thus, while real-time pricing can be an effective tool for addressing the peak load

Total energy calculations from self-energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez-Friera, P.

2001-06-01

Density-functional theory is a powerful method to calculate total energies of large systems of interacting electrons. The usefulness of this method, however, is limited by the fact that an approximation is required for the exchange-correlation energy. Currently used approximations (LDA and GGA) are not sufficiently accurate in many physical problems, as for instance the study of chemical reactions. It has been shown that exchange-correlation effects can be accurately described via the self-energy operator in the context of many-body perturbation theory. This is, however, a computationally very demanding approach. In this thesis a new scheme for calculating total energies is proposed, which combines elements from many-body perturbation theory and density-functional theory. The exchange-correlation energy functional is built from a simplified model of the self-energy, that nevertheless retains the main features of the exact operator. The model is built in such way that the computational effort is not significantly increased with respect to that required in a typical density-functional theory calculation. (author)

The Survival of Total Knee Arthroplasty: Current Data from Registries on Tribology: Review Article.

Science.gov (United States)

Civinini, Roberto; Carulli, Christian; Matassi, Fabrizio; Lepri, Andrea Cozzi; Sirleo, Luigi; Innocenti, Massimo

2017-02-01

Polyethylene (PE) wear is a major contributor to implant loosening following total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and advanced bearings in TKA are being investigated with hopes of reducing or eliminate wear-related loosening. Currently, information on knee tribology is available from national joint registries and may be the best tools to evaluate the efficacy and safety of design innovations in joint arthroplasty. We performed a review of national joint registries trying to answer the following questions: "Which is the main factor directly related to revisions rate in TKA?" and "Are there new bearing options better than conventional ones?" A review was performed of all published annual reports of National Joint Registers, as well as of the literature. The search was carried out using and comparing the National Joint Registers. Current data from registries for total knee arthroplasty indicates that age is the major factor affecting the outcome of primary total knee replacement. The 10-year cumulative revision rate for non-cross-linked PE was 5.8% and for XLPE it was 3.5%. The effect of cross-linked polyethylene was more evident in the younger patients. The survival of the oxidized zirconium (OxZr) femoral component appears better when compared to a similar age group of patients with conventional group of prostheses. Our review suggests that the revision rates are half for the OxZr components compared to conventional CoCr femoral components. Age is the most relevant single factor related to revision rate. Cross-linked PE has a statistical lower revision rate at 10 years compared to conventional PE and, in the OxZr group, the revision rate is 2 times lower than Co-Cr in the same group of age.

Energy demands in the 21st century: the role of biofuels in a developing country

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quaye, E.C.

1996-01-01

In most developing countries more than 25% of total energy use comes from biofuels. In Ghana, the figure is between 70-80%. Bioenergy is mainly used for cooking and heating, and is also important in rural or cottage industries. As a developing country, Ghana's economic growth remains coupled to the availability and supply of energy. About 29% of this energy is obtained through hydropower and imported petroleum. The two hydropower installations generate about 1102 MW annually mainly for domestic and industrial uses. At the current 3.0% average annual population growth rate, a population of about 35 million is expected by 2025. Coupled with the country's efforts to promote industrialization, future energy demand is expected to increase several fold. This paper provides an overview of Ghana's current energy situation and discusses the role of bioenergy in the future energy demand of the country. The paper concludes with a recommendation for a major shift in energy policy to accommodate the conversion of biofuels into versatile energy carriers in a decentralised system to meet the energy requirements of the people and to provide a basis for rural development and employment. (Author)

Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asif, M.; Muneer, T.

2007-01-01

Energy is inevitable for human life and a secure and accessible supply of energy is crucial for the sustainability of modern societies. Continuation of the use of fossil fuels is set to face multiple challenges: depletion of fossil fuel reserves, global warming and other environmental concerns, geopolitical and military conflicts and of late, continued and significant fuel price rise. These problems indicate an unsustainable situation. Renewable energy is the solution to the growing energy challenges. Renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, biomass, and wave and tidal energy, are abundant, inexhaustible and environmentally friendly. This article provides an overview of the current and projected energy scene. Five countries, that presently have a significant impact on global energy situation, have been studied in this work. These include China, India, Russia, UK and USA. Together the present energy budget of these countries is roughly half that of the globe. Four of the above five countries that are discussed in this work - China, India, UK and USA are all net importers of energy and are heavily dependent on imports of fuel to sustain their energy demands. Their respective local oil reserves will only last 9, 6, 7 and 4 years, respectively. China, the emerging economy in the world, is however making exemplary development in renewable energy - in 2004 renewable energy in China grew by 25% against 7-9% growth in electricity demand. While in the same year, wind energy in China saw a growth of 35%. China is also leading the global solar thermal market as it has already installed solar collectors over 65 million square meters, accounting for more than 40% of the world's total collector area. This article quantifies the period of exhaustion of the current major energy sources, i.e. coal, oil, gas and nuclear fissile material. Projected demand for energy is also presented and a feasibility of switch over to renewable energy is discussed. The article also presents

Current problems of the Bulgarian energy industry against the background of global short-term energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batov, S.

1999-01-01

The energy demand during the next century due first of all to the expected growth of population necessitates more efficient technologies and huge investments. The production of nuclear energy requires higher safety as well as reduction of costs. A new form of partnership between the developed and developing countries is needed for transferring capital and technologies at special framework terms in order to avoid errors in the process of transition. The Energy Forum'99 highlights the current problems of Bulgarian energy branch and the projects for its future including better utilization of the existing energy resources, for development of new or renewable energy sources, not well utilized at present, and to harmonize the sector with better environmental protection. The most important problems discussed are: 1. Structure and restructuring strategy of the energy sector. Prices and tariffs. Privatization aspects. Construction of new replacement generating capacities; 2. Thermal power plants; 3. Nuclear power plants; 4. District heating and natural gas supply; 5. Efficient energy utilization; 6. Renewable energy sources; 7. Environmental protection and 8. Education

Predicting the Effects of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Food and Beverage Demand in a Large Demand System

Science.gov (United States)

Zhen, Chen; Finkelstein, Eric A.; Nonnemaker, James; Karns, Shawn; Todd, Jessica E.

2013-01-01

A censored Exact Affine Stone Index incomplete demand system is estimated for 23 packaged foods and beverages and a numéraire good. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogenous prices. A half-cent per ounce increase in sugar-sweetened beverage prices is predicted to reduce total calories from the 23 foods and beverages but increase sodium and fat intakes as a result of product substitution. The predicted decline in calories is larger for low-income households than for high-income households, although welfare loss is also higher for low-income households. Neglecting price endogeneity or estimating a conditional demand model significantly overestimates the calorie reduction. PMID:24839299

Enhancing the Frequency Adaptability of Periodic Current Controllers for Grid-Connected Power Converters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Yongheng; Zhou, Keliang; Blaabjerg, Frede

2015-01-01

It is mandatory for grid-connected power converters to synchronize the feed-in currents with the grid. Moreover, the power converters should produce feed-in currents with low total harmonic distortions according to the demands, by employing advanced current controllers, e.g., Proportional Resonant...... deviations. Experiments on a single-phase grid-connected inverter system are presented, which have verified the proposals and also the effectiveness of the frequency adaptive current controllers....... (PR) and Repetitive Controllers (RC). The synchronization is actually to detect the instantaneous grid information (e.g., frequency and phase of the grid voltage) for the current control, which is commonly performed by a Phase-Locked-Loop (PLL) system. As a consequence, harmonics and deviations...

Case study of forecasting uranium supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noritake, Kazumitsu

1992-01-01

PNC collects and analyzes information about uranium market trend, world uranium supply and demand, and world uranium resources potential in order to establish the strategy of uranium exploration. This paper outlines the results obtained to forecast uranium supply and demand. Our forecast indicates that 8,500 tU, accounting for one-sixth of the demand in the year 2001, must be met by uranium produced by mines to be newly developed. After 2019, demand cannot be met by the 123 mines currently in operation or expected to have gone into production by this year. The projected shortage must therefore be covered by uranium to be newly discovered. To preclude this occurrence, uranium exploration will have to be steadily continued in order to ensure future new uranium resources, to alleviate anxiety about future supply, and to prevent sharp price hikes. (author)

A novel machine learning approach for estimation of electricity demand: An empirical evidence from Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mostafavi, Elham Sadat; Mostafavi, Seyyed Iman; Jaafari, Arefeh; Hosseinpour, Fariba

2013-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid approach is presented for the estimation of the electricity demand. • The proposed method integrates the capabilities of GP and SA. • The GSA model makes accurate predictions of the electricity demand. - Abstract: This study proposes an innovative hybrid approach for the estimation of the long-term electricity demand. A new prediction equation was developed for the electricity demand using an integrated search method of genetic programming and simulated annealing, called GSA. The annual electricity demand was formulated in terms of population, gross domestic product (GDP), stock index, and total revenue from exporting industrial products of the same year. A comprehensive database containing total electricity demand in Thailand from 1986 to 2009 was used to develop the model. The generalization of the model was verified using a separate testing data. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the contribution of the parameters affecting the electricity demand. The GSA model provides accurate predictions of the electricity demand. Furthermore, the proposed model outperforms a regression and artificial neural network-based models

Total Quality Management Seminar.

Science.gov (United States)

Massachusetts Career Development Inst., Springfield.

This booklet is one of six texts from a workplace literacy curriculum designed to assist learners in facing the increased demands of the workplace. The booklet contains seven sections that cover the following topics: (1) meaning of total quality management (TQM); (2) the customer; (3) the organization's culture; (4) comparison of management…

Future demand of petroleum products in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Sajal

2006-01-01

This paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship between total petroleum products consumption and economic growth in India for the period 1970-1971 to 2001-2002 using cointegration and error-correction modeling approach. Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests reveal that both the series, after logarithmic transformation, are non-stationary and individually integrated of order one. The empirical results suggest that the series are cointegrated. The 'long-term demand elasticity for petroleum products' has been estimated. Furthermore, as a special case, similar sort of exercise between the consumption of middle-distillates and economic growth in India using annual data for the time span 1974-1975 to 2001-2002 has been carried out, which also confirms the existence of cointegration. In-sample forecasts fitted well against actual numbers. Finally, the paper forecasts total petroleum products and middle-distillates demands till 2011-2012 and provide an idea about the investment required in refinery sector in India till 2011-2012

The role of psychological flexibility in the demands-exhaustion-performance chain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Onwezen, M.; Biron, M.; van Veldhoven, M.J.P.M.

2014-01-01

Employees in the service sector deal with a variety of emotional job demands due to interactions with clients. Emotional job demands often result in heightened levels of emotional exhaustion and decreased levels of performance. The current study aims to explore whether the adaptive behavioural

The role of psychological flexibility in the demands-exhaustion-performance relationship

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Onwezen, M.C.; Veldhoven, van M.J.P.M.; Biron, M.

2014-01-01

Employees in the service sector deal with a variety of emotional job demands due to interactions with clients. Emotional job demands often result in heightened levels of emotional exhaustion and decreased levels of performance. The current study aims to explore whether the adaptive behavioural

Price and income elasticities of demand for alcoholic beverages.

Science.gov (United States)

Ornstein, S I; Levy, D

1983-01-01

Estimating the demand for alcoholic beverages represents a difficult statistical problem. A number of studies have attempted to estimate the demand for beer, wine, distilled spirits, or total alcohol consumption. The results vary widely according to country of study, data used, and model and statistical technique. For the United States, most studies find the demand for beer to be relatively price inelastic, at around -0.3. The demand for distilled spirits appears to be unitary price elasticity or somewhat greater, around -1.5. The evidence on wine is too sketchy to draw any conclusions. There is no strong evidence of substitutability among beer, wine, and distilled spirits based on econometric models, nor evidence that advertising plays a strong role in the aggregate demand for beer, wine, or distilled spirits. The main policy implication is that price increases to control consumption will have a stronger impact on the consumption of distilled spirits than on beer.

CRISP. Market-oriented online supply-demand matching

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamphuis, I.G.; Kester, J.C.P.; Carlsson, P; Akkermans, H.

2004-04-01

Current power distribution systems are operated in a top-down manner. Power production control and price formation take place on a central level on the basis of relatively static data from a data collection and dispatching network with a limited scope and granularity. When incorporating a more considerable fraction of small-scale producers on the basis of, for instance, renewable energy, operation of the distribution grid requires more data to be collected from a more extensive information and data communication network. Furthermore, increased local flows, in the form of two-way communication with distributed computation techniques, enable a more dynamic adaptation in power supply and demand patterns paving the way to a flexible way of embedding of ill-predictable supply of some types of renewable energy sources. DSM-programs have been in use in the utility sector for years now. In this document, first, current Demand Side Management (DSM) and Demand Response Resource (DRR) techniques are discussed; then, supply side management especially in a DG (Distributed Generation) context is treated. A framework of novel concepts and possible technology directions is presented subsequently and some preliminary scenarios are shown to illustrate these concepts. An overview of more flexible supply and demand matching schemes is given essentially based on four distinct types of SDM clusters. It appears, that it is possible to fulfil requirements for these distributed environments in terms of needed information and communication technology, ICT, if these are paralleled with the expected future penetration of ever-smaller scale data-exchange networks at power customer sites. Agent technology using algorithms from micro-economic market theory offers a promising possibility for managing the complexity of price formation and supply demand matching in these fine-grained bottom-up control distribution networks. Implication of these technical developments in terms of market and business

Electric demand and the antinuclear movement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Studness, C.M.

1984-01-01

The author feels that, with electric demand growth of 4.5 to 5% per year expected, it will be only a matter of time before stepping-up the stream of utility capacity additions becomes an important issue. If demand grows 4.5% per year instead of 2.8% as projected by NERC, demand will be 10% higher and peak reserve margins about 12 percentage points lower than envisioned by the NERC projections after five years. By 1988 or 1989, little or no excess capacity will remain, and the utilities will be faced with adding twice as much capacity annually as now planned to avoid service deterioration. As questions about the adequacy of current utility capacity plans and concerns about service quality move toward center stage, the antinuclear movement should find it increasingly difficult to garner the broad support it now enjoys. Capacity represented by any uncompleted nuclear plants will appear increasingly beneficial, and those who do not have strong antinuclear sentiments should become increasingly hesitant about lending support to the movement. Accordingly, electric demand growth in due course can be expected to drain marginal supporters from the antinuclear movement and thereby erode the movement's vitality

Using Demand Side Management to Adapt to Water Scarcity and ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

The Saiss is a sub-basin of the Sebou basin in Northern Morocco. Due to decreased precipitation and increased water demand, the surface waters of the Saiss basin have been greatly reduced. At the current rate of exploitation, the aquifer will be depleted within 25 years. This project will examine whether demand-side ...

Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

2015-06-01

Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernd Möller

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Significant reductions of heat demand, low-carbon and renewable energy sources, and district heating are key elements in 100% renewable energy systems. Appraisal of district heating along with energy efficient buildings and individual heat supply requires a geographical representation of heat demand, energy efficiency and energy supply. The present paper describes a Heat Atlas built around a spatial database using geographical information systems (GIS. The present atlas allows for per-building calculations of potentials and costs of energy savings, connectivity to existing district heat, and current heat supply and demand. For the entire building mass a conclusive link is established between the built environment and its heat supply. The expansion of district heating; the interconnection of distributed district heating systems; or the question whether to invest in ultra-efficient buildings with individual supply, or in collective heating using renewable energy for heating the current building stock, can be based on improved data.

Ontario demand response scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2005-09-01

Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

Conceptualizing and measuring demand for recreation on national forests: a review and synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Brian E. Garber-Yonts

2005-01-01

This analysis examines the problem of measuring demand for recreation on national forests and other public lands. Current measures of recreation demand in Forest Service resource assessments and planning emphasize population-level participation rates and activity-based economic values for visitor days. Alternative measures and definitions of recreation demand are...

Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Painter Page R

2005-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent α in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4. Methods The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Results Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. Conclusion The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate.

Fuel switching in Harare: An almost ideal demand system approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chambwera, Muyeye; Folmer, Henk

2007-01-01

In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey carried out among 500 households in Harare in 2003. Using a multi-stage budgeting approach, the model estimates the share of energy in total household expenditure and the shares of firewood, electricity and kerosene in total energy expenditure. Using the model results simulations show that the main policy handles to reduce the demand for firewood and to mitigate environmental degradation such as deforestation include decreasing prices of alternative fuels, notably kerosene. Moreover, in the long run sound economic policy will positively impact on the energy budget whereas education and the degree of electrification will contribute to a reduction of the use of firewood

Interim report of the supply/demand committee in Electric Enterprises Council

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

Following a similar report made two odd years ago, an interim report was presented concerning the outlook of electric power demand and the development target for fiscal 1990, and also the electric power demand in the year 2000 to indicate the future direction. During the past two years, the energy situation both domestic and abroad has largely changed, including energy saving practice, petroleum substitute development, etc. The aggregate demand of electric power in fiscal 1990 was estimated at 795,000 million kwh, up about 4.3 % yearly from that in fiscal 1980. The target for nuclear power generation in fiscal 1990 was put at 46 million kw (22.0 % of the total power capacity). Then in the year 2000, the nuclear power generation in terms of capacity will be about 30 % of the aggregate total. (Mori, K.)

The timing and societal synchronisation of energy demand

OpenAIRE

Mattioli, G; Shove, E; Torriti, J

2014-01-01

It is increasingly important to know about when energy is used in the home, at work and on the move. Issues of time and timing have not featured strongly in energy policy analysis and in modelling, much of which has focused on estimating and reducing total average annual demand per capita. If smarter ways of balancing supply and demand are to take hold, and if we are to make better use of decarbonised forms of supply, it is essential to understand and intervene in patterns of societal synchro...

A Review of Demand Forecast for Charging Facilities of Electric Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Jiming, Han; Lingyu, Kong; Yaqi, Shen; Ying, Li; Wenting, Xiong; Hao, Wang

2017-05-01

The demand forecasting of charging facilities is the basis of its planning and locating, which has important role in promoting the development of electric vehicles and alleviating the energy crisis. Firstly, this paper analyzes the influence of the charging mode, the electric vehicle population and the user’s charging habits on the demand of charging facilities; Secondly, considering these factors, the recent analysis on charging and switching equipment demand forecast is divided into two methods—forecast based on electric vehicle population and user traveling behavior. Then, the article analyzes the two methods and puts forward the advantages and disadvantages. Finally, in view of the defects of current research, combined with the current situation of the development of the city and comprehensive consideration of economic, political, environmental and other factors, this paper proposes an improved demand forecasting method which has great practicability and pertinence and lays the foundation for the plan of city electric facilities.

Coping with unexpected oil demand movements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2004-01-01

Continuous upward revisions to world oil demand projections for 2003 and 2004 are compared with the downward revisions that took place in 1998 and 1999, following the 1997 Asian economic crisis. Demand leads supply, in the current case, resulting in a time-lag in the whole supply chain, while supply led demand half a decade ago, with the OECD's commercial stocks reaching record highs. Recent months have seen a reversal of the longstanding inverse relationship between the United States of America's commercial crude oil stock levels and crude prices, and they are now moving in parallel. The fact that the US market is now adequately or even well supplied means that factors other than inventory levels are causing the present high prices. These factors are briefly outlined. OPEC is doing everything it can to maintain market stability, with prices at levels acceptable to producers and consumers. The agreement reached in Beirut on 3 June is the latest example of this. (Author)

Reliability constrained decision model for energy service provider incorporating demand response programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahboubi-Moghaddam, Esmaeil; Nayeripour, Majid; Aghaei, Jamshid

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The operation of Energy Service Providers (ESPs) in electricity markets is modeled. • Demand response as the cost-effective solution is used for energy service provider. • The market price uncertainty is modeled using the robust optimization technique. • The reliability of the distribution network is embedded into the framework. • The simulation results demonstrate the benefits of robust framework for ESPs. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) programs are becoming a critical concept for the efficiency of current electric power industries. Therefore, its various capabilities and barriers have to be investigated. In this paper, an effective decision model is presented for the strategic behavior of energy service providers (ESPs) to demonstrate how to participate in the day-ahead electricity market and how to allocate demand in the smart distribution network. Since market price affects DR and vice versa, a new two-step sequential framework is proposed, in which unit commitment problem (UC) is solved to forecast the expected locational marginal prices (LMPs), and successively DR program is applied to optimize the total cost of providing energy for the distribution network customers. This total cost includes the cost of purchased power from the market and distributed generation (DG) units, incentive cost paid to the customers, and compensation cost of power interruptions. To obtain compensation cost, the reliability evaluation of the distribution network is embedded into the framework using some innovative constraints. Furthermore, to consider the unexpected behaviors of the other market participants, the LMP prices are modeled as the uncertainty parameters using the robust optimization technique, which is more practical compared to the conventional stochastic approach. The simulation results demonstrate the significant benefits of the presented framework for the strategic performance of ESPs.

The potential demand for bioenergy in residential heating applications (bio-heat) in the UK based on a market segment analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jablonski, S.; Pantaleo, A.; Bauen, A.; Pearson, P.; Panoutsou, C.; Slade, R.

2008-01-01

How large is the potential demand for bio-heat in the UK? Whilst most research has focused on the supply of biomass for energy production, an understanding of the potential demand is crucial to the uptake of heat from bioenergy. We have designed a systematic framework utilising market segmentation techniques to assess the potential demand for biomass heat in the UK. First, the heat market is divided into relevant segments, characterised in terms of their final energy consumption, technological and fuel supply options. Second, the key technical, economic and organisational factors that affect the uptake of bioenergy in each heat segment are identified, classified and then analysed to reveal which could be strong barriers, which could be surmounted easily, and for which bioenergy heat represents an improvement compared to alternatives. The defined framework is applied to the UK residential sector. We identify provisionally the most promising market segments for bioenergy heat, and their current levels of energy demand. We find that, depending on the assumptions, the present potential demand for bio-heat in the UK residential sector ranges between 3% (conservative estimate) and 31% (optimistic estimate) of the total energy consumed in the heat market. (author)

A model for estimation of the demand for on-street parking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Edith; Mulalic, Ismir; Pilegaard, Ninette

2013-01-01

This paper presents a stylized econometric model for the demand for on-street parking with focus on estimation of the elasticity of demand with respect to the full cost of parking. The full cost of parking consists of a parking fee and the cost of searching for a vacant parking space (cruising......). The cost of cruising is usually unobserved. Ignoring this issue implies a downward bias of the elasticity of demand with respect to the total cost of parking since the cost of cruising depends on the number of cars parked. We also demonstrate that, even when the cost of cruising is unobserved, the demand...

Ethanol Demand in United States Gasoline Production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hadder, G.R.

1998-11-24

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OWL) Refinery Yield Model (RYM) has been used to estimate the demand for ethanol in U.S. gasoline production in year 2010. Study cases examine ethanol demand with variations in world oil price, cost of competing oxygenate, ethanol value, and gasoline specifications. For combined-regions outside California summer ethanol demand is dominated by conventional gasoline (CG) because the premised share of reformulated gasoline (RFG) production is relatively low and because CG offers greater flexibility for blending high vapor pressure components like ethanol. Vapor pressure advantages disappear for winter CG, but total ethanol used in winter RFG remains low because of the low RFG production share. In California, relatively less ethanol is used in CG because the RFG production share is very high. During the winter in California, there is a significant increase in use of ethanol in RFG, as ethanol displaces lower-vapor-pressure ethers. Estimated U.S. ethanol demand is a function of the refiner value of ethanol. For example, ethanol demand for reference conditions in year 2010 is 2 billion gallons per year (BGY) at a refiner value of $1.00 per gallon (1996 dollars), and 9 BGY at a refiner value of $0.60 per gallon. Ethanol demand could be increased with higher oil prices, or by changes in gasoline specifications for oxygen content, sulfur content, emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCS), and octane numbers.

Uranium resources, production and demand in South Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brynard, H J; Ainslie, L C [Atomic Energy Corporation of South Africa Ltd., Pretoria (South Africa)

1990-06-01

This paper provides a review of the historical development of the South African uranium market and the current status of uranium exploration, resources and production. A prognosticated view of possible future demand for uranium in South Africa is attempted, taking cognisance of the finite nature of the country's coal resources and estimated world uranium demand. Although well endowed with uranium resources, South Africa could face a shortage of this commodity in the next century, should the predicted electricity growth materials. (author)

Uranium resources, production and demand in South Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brynard, H.J.; Ainslie, L.C.

1990-01-01

This paper provides a review of the historical development of the South African uranium market and the current status of uranium exploration, resources and production. A prognosticated view of possible future demand for uranium in South Africa is attempted, taking cognisance of the finite nature of the country's coal resources and estimated world uranium demand. Although well endowed with uranium resources, South Africa could face a shortage of this commodity in the next century, should the predicted electricity growth materials. (author)

A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murat Yalçıntaş

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure.

Product longevity and shared ownership: Sustainable routes to satisfying the world’s growing demand for goods 

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John G. Rogers

2015-09-01

Full Text Available It has been estimated that by 2030 the number of people who are wealthy enough to be significant consumers will have tripled. This will have a dramatic impact on the demands for primary materials and energy. It has been estimated that with improvements in design and manufacturing it is possible to maintain the current level of production using 70% of the current primary material consumed. Even with these improvements on the production side, there will still be a doubling of primary material requirements by the end of the century, with accompanying rises in industrial energy demand, if the rise in demand for goods and services is to be met. It is therefore clear that the consumption of products must also be explored. Product longevity and using goods more intensively are two strategies which could reduce the demand for new goods. If products last longer, then manufacturing output can concentrate on emerging markets rather than the market for replacement goods. There are many goods which are infrequently used, these seldom wear out. The total demand for such could be drastically reduced if they were shared with other people. Sharing of goods has traditionally been conducted between friends or by hiring equipment, but modern communication systems and social media could increase the opportunities to share goods. Sharing goods also increases access to a range of goods for those on low incomes. From a series of workshops it has been found that the principal challenges are sociological rather than technological. This paper contains a discussion of these challenges and explores possible futures where these two strategies have been adopted. In addition, the barriers and opportunities that these strategies offer for consumers and businesses are identified, and areas where government policy could be instigated to bring about change are highlighted.

The relationship between agricultural technology and energy demand in Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaman, Khalid; Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq; Ahmad, Mehboob; Rustam, Rabiah

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was two fold: (i) to investigate the casual relationship between energy consumption and agricultural technology factors, and (ii) electricity consumption and technological factors in the agricultural sector of Pakistan. The study further evaluates four alternative but equally plausible hypotheses, each with different policy implications. These are: (i) Agricultural technology factors cause energy demand (the conventional view), (ii) energy demand causes technological factors, (iii) There is a bi-directional causality between the two variables and (iv) Both variables are causality independent. By applying techniques of Cointegration and Granger causality tests on energy demand (i.e., total primary energy consumption and electricity consumption) and agricultural technology factors (such as, tractors, fertilizers, cereals production, agriculture irrigated land, high technology exports, livestock; agriculture value added; industry value added and subsides) over a period of 1975–2010. The results infer that tractor and energy demand has bi-directional relationship; while irrigated agricultural land; share of agriculture and industry value added and subsides have supported the conventional view i.e., agricultural technology cause energy consumption in Pakistan. On the other hand, neither fertilizer consumption and high technology exports nor energy demand affect each others. Government should form a policy of incentive-based supports which might be a good policy for increasing the use of energy level in agriculture. - Highlights: ► Find the direction between green technology factors and energy demand in Pakistan. ► The results indicate that there is a strong relationship between them. ► Agriculture machinery and energy demand has bi-directional relationship. ► Green technology causes energy consumption i.e., unidirectional relationship. ► Agriculture expansion is positive related to total primary energy consumption.

Modeling and analysis of long term energy demands in residential sector of pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rashid, T.; Sahir, M.H.

2015-01-01

Residential sector is the core among the energy demand sectors in Pakistan. Currently, various techniques are being used worldwide to assess future energy demands including integrated system modeling (ISM). Therefore, the current study is focused on implementation of ISM approach for future energy demand analysis of Pakistan's residential sector in terms of increase in population, rapid urbanization, household size and type, and increase/decrease in GDP. A detailed business-as-usual (BAU) model is formulated in TIMES energy modeling framework using different factors like growth in future energy services, end-use technology characterization, and restricted fuel supplies. Additionally, the developed model is capable to compare the projected energy demand under different scenarios e.g. strong economy, weak economy and energy efficiency. The implementation of ISM proved a viable approach to predict the future energy demands of Pakistan's residential sector. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the energy consumption in the residential sector would be 46.5 Mtoe (Million Ton of Oil Equivalent) in 2040 compared to 23 Mtoe of the base year (2007) along with 600% increase in electricity demands. The study further maps the potential residential energy policies to congregate the future demands. (author)

Demand and supply in Russian gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milovidov, K.N.

1997-01-01

The big volume of gas supplies for current and future energy and natural gas balances in Russia is important to understand the likely future dynamics of demand for gas. The path of future demand in Russia is uncertain and the range of possible scenarios is wide. For creating the new gas consumption structure, more deep diversification and development of the gas distribution systems, large investments and considerable periods of time are necessary. The factors usually studied in detail in the conditions of market economy can not be used here as a basis for strategic planning due to several reasons. (R.P.)

THE PRICE OF HIGHER EDUCATION AND INDIVIDUAL DEMAND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filiz Golpek

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The rise in the living standards in most of the world, the rise in population and schooling rates have increased the demand for higher education. The attribution of semi public property becomes determinant to decide whom will provide the supply and the production in semi public properties is realized by means of a supply and demand mechanism. The supply of higher education is mostly secured in accordance with the public demand as well as the resources available.  In addition, the fact that higher education services have produced significant benefits has led to over demand. This situation relates to a simple economic rule that a commodity or service which costs almost nothing or little will increase until the mariginal benefit of its demand equals to 0 or almost 0. However, the educational supply and demand is difficult to identify in accordance to the supply and demand and balance of price as observed in the economic theory. The high profits that would be attracted in the future are significant factors influencing individual’s decisions for investment. The decision for investment depends on the possible return in the future, the cost of investment, and the current interest rates. Higher education with investment purposes is influenced by these three factors and higher education is demanded more and more by individuals on the expectation that they will gain high profits In theory, it is accepted that the basic factors identifying the demand for higher education are in harmony with empirical research results in several countries including Turkey.

A methodology for the assessment of potential demand and optimal supply of entrepreneurial microcredit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayi Gavriel Ayayi

2012-04-01

Full Text Available We propose a methodology for the assessment of potential demand and optimal supply for microcredit. We show that the total demand is a combination of the demand that stems from the active poor plus the demand generated by a motivator agent among the entrepreneurial non-motivated poor. We use French data to provide an illustration of the assessment of potential demand for microcredit. We also show that the proportion of the potential demand satisfied by a microfinance institution depends on its objective i.e. either it is socially oriented or a profit maximizer.

Reevaluation of Turkey's hydropower potential and electric energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yueksek, Omer

2008-01-01

This paper deals with Turkey's hydropower potential and its long-term electric energy demand predictions. In the paper, at first, Turkey's energy sources are briefly reviewed. Then, hydropower potential is analyzed and it has been concluded that Turkey's annual economically feasible hydropower potential is about 188 TWh, nearly 47% greater than the previous estimation figures of 128 TWh. A review on previous prediction models for Turkey's long-term electric energy demand is presented. In order to predict the future demand, new increment ratio scenarios, which depend on both observed data and future predictions of population, energy consumption per capita and total energy consumption, are developed. The results of 11 prediction models are compared and analyzed. It is concluded that Turkey's annual electric energy demand predictions in 2010, 2015 and 2020 vary between 222 and 242 (average 233) TWh; 302 and 356 (average 334) TWh; and 440 and 514 (average 476) TWh, respectively. A discussion on the role of hydropower in meeting long-term demand is also included in the paper and it has been predicted that hydropower can meet 25-35% of Turkey's electric energy demand in 2020

Process modelling in demand-driven supply chains: A reference model for the fruit industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Wolfert, J.

2010-01-01

The growing importance of health in consumption is expected to result in a significant increase of European fruit demand. However, the current fruit supply does not yet sufficiently meet demand requirements. This urges fruit supply chains to become more demand-driven, that is, able to continuously

Heterogeneity in Consumer Demands and the Income Effect

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Mette

2014-01-01

This paper uses unique Spanish panel data on household expenditures to test whether unobservable heterogeneity in household demands (taste, etc.) is correlated with total expenditures (income). The main finding is that tastes are indeed correlated with income for about half of the goods considere....... For transportation, the bias is sufficiently large to misclassify the good as a luxury.......This paper uses unique Spanish panel data on household expenditures to test whether unobservable heterogeneity in household demands (taste, etc.) is correlated with total expenditures (income). The main finding is that tastes are indeed correlated with income for about half of the goods considered......, implying that cross-sectional estimates of income elasticities for these goods are biased. The goods are the following: food eaten outside home, alcohol and tobacco, transportation, and energy. The elasticity of alcohol and tobacco is more than halved when taking unobserved heterogeneity into account...

Consumer Demand for Healthy Diet: New Evidence from the Healthy Eating Index

OpenAIRE

Gao, Zhifeng; Yu, Xiaohua; Lee, Jonq-Ying

2011-01-01

A large volume of literature has been focusing on the measure of diet quality and consumer demand for food. However, little has estimated consumer demand for diet quality. In this article, we systematically estimate consumer demand for diet quality using the healthy eating index (HEI) developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Results show that consumers have insufficient consumption of the food containing dark green, orange vegetable, legumes and total grain. Age and education have...

Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

OpenAIRE

Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

2014-01-01

It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

The UK-DALE dataset, domestic appliance-level electricity demand and whole-house demand from five UK homes.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Jack; Knottenbelt, William

2015-01-01

Many countries are rolling out smart electricity meters. These measure a home's total power demand. However, research into consumer behaviour suggests that consumers are best able to improve their energy efficiency when provided with itemised, appliance-by-appliance consumption information. Energy disaggregation is a computational technique for estimating appliance-by-appliance energy consumption from a whole-house meter signal. To conduct research on disaggregation algorithms, researchers require data describing not just the aggregate demand per building but also the 'ground truth' demand of individual appliances. In this context, we present UK-DALE: an open-access dataset from the UK recording Domestic Appliance-Level Electricity at a sample rate of 16 kHz for the whole-house and at 1/6 Hz for individual appliances. This is the first open access UK dataset at this temporal resolution. We recorded from five houses, one of which was recorded for 655 days, the longest duration we are aware of for any energy dataset at this sample rate. We also describe the low-cost, open-source, wireless system we built for collecting our dataset.

Physical and physiological demands of U-19 basketball refereeing: Aerobic and anaerobic demands.

Science.gov (United States)

Nabli, Mohamed Ali; Ben Abdelkrim, Nidhal; Castagna, Carlo; Jabri, Imed; Batikh, Tahar; Chamari, Karim

2016-01-01

This study aimed to examine the physical and physiological demands of basketball refereeing. 16 elite-level basketball referees were studied during U-19 basketball games (n=8) for time-motion analyses, exercise heart rates (HR) and blood lactate concentration [La]. Game activities were considered as time spent and distance covered in five locomotors activities (standing, walking, jogging, running and sprinting). Referees spent more time (pbasketball refereeing is a moderate intensity activity where referees spent 81% of total game time at low-intensity with bouts of high-intensity activities throughout the game.

Supply and Demand for Business Education in Naval Aviation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gray, Obra L

2005-01-01

... modernization with current readiness. This project analyzes the supply and demand for postgraduate business education to determine how prepared Naval Aviation is to achieve long-term transformation objectives...

Career Technical Education: Keeping Adult Learners Competitive for High-Demand Jobs

Science.gov (United States)

National Association of State Directors of Career Technical Education Consortium, 2011

2011-01-01

In today's turbulent economy, how can adult workers best position themselves to secure jobs in high-demand fields where they are more likely to remain competitive and earn more? Further, how can employers up-skill current employees so that they meet increasingly complex job demands? Research indicates that Career Technical Education (CTE) aligned…

Total pollution effect of urban surface runoff.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Hongbing; Luo, Lin; Huang, Gu; Liu, Ping; Li, Jingxian; Hu, Sheng; Wang, Fuxiang; Xu, Rui; Huang, Xiaoxue

2009-01-01

For pollution research with regard to urban surface runoff, most sampling strategies to date have focused on differences in land usage. With single land-use sampling, total surface runoff pollution effect cannot be evaluated unless every land usage spot is monitored. Through a new sampling strategy known as mixed stormwater sampling for a street community at discharge outlet adjacent to river, this study assessed the total urban surface runoff pollution effect caused by a variety of land uses and the pollutants washed off from the rain pipe system in the Futian River watershed in Shenzhen City of China. The water quality monitoring indices were COD (chemical oxygen demand), TSS (total suspend solid), TP (total phosphorus), TN (total nitrogen) and BOD (biochemical oxygen demand). The sums of total pollution loads discharged into the river for the four indices of COD, TSS, TN, and TP over all seven rainfall events were very different. The mathematical model for simulating total pollution loads was established from discharge outlet mixed stormwater sampling of total pollution loads on the basis of four parameters: rainfall intensity, total land area, impervious land area, and pervious land area. In order to treat surface runoff pollution, the values of MFF30 (mass first flush ratio) and FF30 (first 30% of runoff volume) can be considered as split-flow control criteria to obtain more effective and economical design of structural BMPs (best management practices) facilities.

Clean fuel for demanding environmental markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Josewicz, W.; Natschke, D.E. [Acurex Environmental Corp., Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

1995-12-31

Acurex Environmental Corporation is bringing Clean Fuel to the environmentally demand Krakow market, through the cooperative agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy. Clean fuel is a proprietary clean burning coal-based energy source intended for use in stoves and hand stoked boilers. Clean Fuel is a home heating fuel that is similar in form and function to raw coal, but is more environmentally friendly and lower in cost. The heating value of Clean Fuel is 24,45 kJ/kg. Extensive sets of confirmation runs were conducted in the Academy of Mining and Metallurgy in the Krakow laboratories. It demonstrated up to 54 percent reduction of particulate matter emission, up to 35 percent reduction of total hydrocarbon emissions. Most importantly, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (toxic and carcinogens compounds) emissions were reduced by up to 85 percent, depending on species measured. The above comparison was made against premium chunk coal that is currently available in Krakow for approximately $83 to 93/ton. Clean Fuel will be made available in Krakow at a price approximately 10 percent lower than that of the premium chunk coal.

Relationship between product demand, tibial polyethylene insert shelf age, and total knee arthroplasty survival: retrospective review of total knees of one design.

Science.gov (United States)

Urban, Joshua A; Collier, Matthew B; Engh, C Anderson; Engh, Gerard A

2006-04-01

Shelf aging of gamma-irradiated-in-air polyethylene tibial components has been associated with increased articular surface wear and an elevated risk for revision. Nine hundred fifty cruciate-retaining inserts of one design were implanted between 1987 and 1996 (shelf age, 1.0 +/- 1.2 years). Less frequently used inserts (smallest/largest sizes, thicker thicknesses, supplemental articular constraint) had longer shelf ages (means ranged from 1.2 to 2.6 years). Survival analysis showed that shelf age (P product demand and can be of aid when diagnosing the painful knee.

Electricity demand forecasting using regression, scenarios and pattern analysis

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Khuluse, S

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of the study is to forecast national electricity demand patterns for a period of twenty years: total annual consumption and understanding seasonal effects. No constraint on the supply of electricity was assumed...

A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brons, M.R.E.; Nijkamp, P.; Pels, E.; Rietveld, P.

2008-01-01

Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In

A Nondominated Genetic Algorithm Procedure for Multiobjective Discrete Network Design under Demand Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bian Changzhi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the multiobjective discrete network design problem under demand uncertainty. The OD travel demands are supposed to be random variables with the given probability distribution. The problem is formulated as a bilevel stochastic optimization model where the decision maker’s objective is to minimize the construction cost, the expectation, and the standard deviation of total travel time simultaneously and the user’s route choice is described using user equilibrium model on the improved network under all scenarios of uncertain demand. The proposed model generates globally near-optimal Pareto solutions for network configurations based on the Monte Carlo simulation and nondominated sorting genetic algorithms II. Numerical experiments implemented on Nguyen-Dupuis test network show trade-offs among construction cost, the expectation, and standard deviation of total travel time under uncertainty are obvious. Investment on transportation facilities is an efficient method to improve the network performance and reduce risk under demand uncertainty, but it has an obvious marginal decreasing effect.

A novel microgrid demand-side management system for manufacturing facilities

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, Terance J.

Thirty-one percent of annual energy consumption in the United States occurs within the industrial sector, where manufacturing processes account for the largest amount of energy consumption and carbon emissions. For this reason, energy efficiency in manufacturing facilities is increasingly important for reducing operating costs and improving profits. Using microgrids to generate local sustainable power should reduce energy consumption from the main utility grid along with energy costs and carbon emissions. Also, microgrids have the potential to serve as reliable energy generators in international locations where the utility grid is often unstable. For this research, a manufacturing process that had approximately 20 kW of peak demand was matched with a solar photovoltaic array that had a peak output of approximately 3 KW. An innovative Demand-Side Management (DSM) strategy was developed to manage the process loads as part of this smart microgrid system. The DSM algorithm managed the intermittent nature of the microgrid and the instantaneous demand of the manufacturing process. The control algorithm required three input signals; one from the microgrid indicating the availability of renewable energy, another from the manufacturing process indicating energy use as a percent of peak production, and historical data for renewable sources and facility demand. Based on these inputs the algorithm had three modes of operation: normal (business as usual), curtailment (shutting off non-critical loads), and energy storage. The results show that a real-time management of a manufacturing process with a microgrid will reduce electrical consumption and peak demand. The renewable energy system for this research was rated to provide up to 13% of the total manufacturing capacity. With actively managing the process loads with the DSM program alone, electrical consumption from the utility grid was reduced by 17% on average. An additional 24% reduction was accomplished when the microgrid

Scaling architecture-on-demand based optical networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meyer, Hugo; Sancho, Jose Carlos; Mrdakovic, Milica; Peng, Shuping; Simeonidou, Dimitra; Miao, Wang; Calabretta, Nicola

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes methodologies that allow scaling properly Architecture-On-Demand (AoD) based optical networks. As Data Centers and HPC systems are growing in size and complexity, optical networks seem to be the way to scale the bandwidth of current network infrastructures. To scale the number of

Total elbow arthroplasty in primary osteoarthritis of the elbow.

Science.gov (United States)

Kozak, T K; Adams, R A; Morrey, B F

1998-10-01

Primary osteoarthritis of the elbow is an infrequent condition typically managed by some form of debridement. There is no comment in the literature regarding prosthetic replacement for this condition. We report 5 patients (mean age, 68), with a minimum assessment of 3 years (range, 37-125 years) after total elbow arthroplasty. Complications in 4 patients included subluxation, fracture of a humeral component with particulate synovitis, heterotopic ossification, recurrent osteophyte formation, and transient ulnar neuropathy. Although revision was required in 2 of the 5, currently all experience had satisfactory outcomes. While replacement has proven ultimately to be a successful option for this high-demand patient group because of the high complication rate, we do not recommend replacement unless alternate operative options are deemed unacceptable.

Optometric supply and demand in Australia: 2011-2036.

Science.gov (United States)

Healy, Ernest; Kiely, Patricia M; Arunachalam, Dharma

2015-05-01

The effective size of the optometric workforce is dependent on graduate numbers, retention rates and immigration and is influenced by age, gender and working hours of optometrists. This paper presents modelling results of the relationship between the projected Australian optometric workforce and projected demand for optometric services for the period 2011 to 2036. Nine hypothetical optometric supply-side and demand-side scenarios are presented. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on age and gender of people listing optometry as their major qualification in the 2011 census were projected over a 25-year period, accounting for factors such as concordance with Health Workforce Australia figures for registered optometrists in Australia in 2011, ageing, attrition, hours worked, new graduates and immigration. Data were compared to the numbers of optometrists calculated as necessary to meet the demand for services of the Australian population to 2036 using nine different scenarios. It was estimated that there would be a surplus of over 1,200 equivalent full-time optometrists (EFTO) in 2036 for the highest service demand scenario of 13.8 million Medicare services, where 21 hours of a 38-hour week per EFTO were allowed for the provision of optometric services under Medicare. Substantial surpluses were predicted in all states and territories except Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory where predicted supply was within six EFTO of predicted demand. Projections using current weightings for mortality, attrition, proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, immigration, new graduates and 21 hours per EFTO per week available for Medicare services indicate that in 2036, there will be excess optometrists in relation to projected demand for services, if service utilisation is maintained at current levels or increased by 10 or 20 per cent. Substantially greater excesses result if each EFTO has 28 or 35 hours per week available for Medicare

Energy in China: Coping with increasing demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandklef, Kristina

2004-11-01

Sustaining the increasing energy consumption is crucial to future economic growth in China. This report focuses on the current and future situation of energy production and consumption in China and how China is coping with its increasing domestic energy demand. Today, coal is the most important energy resource, followed by oil and hydropower. Most energy resources are located in the inland, whereas the main demand for energy is in the coastal areas, which makes transportation and transmission of energy vital. The industrial sector is the main driver of the energy consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption by 2020. China's energy intensity decreased during the 1990s, but it is still high in a global comparison. China is projected to increase its energy consumption at least two times between 2000 and 2025. The government has an equal focus on energy conservation and to develop the current energy resources. Coal will continue to be the most important fuel, but the demand for oil, hydropower, natural gas and nuclear power will also increase. The main future challenges are transportation of energy resources within China and securing oil supply, both domestic and imports

Exploring energy consumption and demand in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan, Ying; Xia, Yan

2012-01-01

China has been experiencing industrialization and urbanization since reform and opening of its economy in 1978. Energy consumption in the country has featured issues such as a coal-dominated energy mix, low energy efficiency and high emissions. Thus, it is of great importance to explore the factors driving the increase in energy consumption in the past two decades and estimate the potential for decreasing energy demands in the future. In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to identify how these factors impact changes in energy intensity. A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in a BAU scenario and an alternative scenario. The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. Energy demand in China will continue to increase at a rapid rate if the economy develops as in the past decades, and is projected to reach 4.7 billion tce in 2020. However, the huge potential for a decrease cannot be neglected, since growth could be better by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements. The total energy demand could be less than 4.0 billion tce in 2020. -- Highlights: ► In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to China’s energy intensity change. ► A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in China. ► The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. ► Energy demand in China will reach 4.7 billion ton in 2020 if the economy develops as in the past decades. ► There is a huge potential for a decrease of energy demand by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements.

The economics of uranium demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, A.D.

1983-01-01

The major characteristics of the demand for uranium are identified, and a number of factors which determine the actual level of uranium requirements of the nuclear power industry are discussed. Since the role of inventories is central to the process of short-term price formation, by comparing projections of uranium production and apparent consumption, the relative level of total inventories is calculated and an assessment is made of its likely impact on the uranium market during the 1980s. (author)

Computer Assisted Surgery and Current Trends in Orthopaedics Research and Total Joint Replacements

Science.gov (United States)

Amirouche, Farid

2008-06-01

Musculoskeletal research has brought about revolutionary changes in our ability to perform high precision surgery in joint replacement procedures. Recent advances in computer assisted surgery as well better materials have lead to reduced wear and greatly enhanced the quality of life of patients. The new surgical techniques to reduce the size of the incision and damage to underlying structures have been the primary advance toward this goal. These new techniques are known as MIS or Minimally Invasive Surgery. Total hip and knee Arthoplasties are at all time high reaching 1.2 million surgeries per year in the USA. Primary joint failures are usually due to osteoarthristis, rheumatoid arthritis, osteocronis and other inflammatory arthritis conditions. The methods for THR and TKA are critical to initial stability and longevity of the prostheses. This research aims at understanding the fundamental mechanics of the joint Arthoplasty and providing an insight into current challenges in patient specific fitting, fixing, and stability. Both experimental and analytical work will be presented. We will examine Cementless total hip arthroplasty success in the last 10 years and how computer assisted navigation is playing in the follow up studies. Cementless total hip arthroplasty attains permanent fixation by the ingrowth of bone into a porous coated surface. Loosening of an ingrown total hip arthroplasty occurs as a result of osteolysis of the periprosthetic bone and degradation of the bone prosthetic interface. The osteolytic process occurs as a result of polyethylene wear particles produced by the metal polyethylene articulation of the prosthesis. The total hip arthroplasty is a congruent joint and the submicron wear particles produced are phagocytized by macrophages initiating an inflammatory cascade. This cascade produces cytokines ultimately implicated in osteolysis. Resulting bone loss both on the acetabular and femoral sides eventually leads to component instability. As

Determinants of import demand for non-renewable energy (petroleum) products: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adewuyi, Adeolu O.

2016-01-01

This study estimated determinants of import demand for refined petroleum products in Nigeria for the period 1984–2013. It employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test cointegration method and analysed both long-run and short-run determinants of import demand for total and specific petroleum products. In the long-run, aggregate and sectoral incomes are significant determinants of import of refined kerosene. Further, real effective exchange rate (REER), aggregate income (GDP), manufacturing sector's income, domestic energy production (DEP) and population growth rate (PGR) are drivers of import of refined motor spirit Moreover, REER, DEP and manufacturing sector's income are propellers of import of refined distillate fuel. Also, REER and total output of petroleum products are major drivers of total import of refined petroleum products. Short-run results show that previous period GDP, PGR and manufacturing and service sectors' incomes are determinants of import demand for refined kerosene. Moreover, REER, GDP, previous PGR and manufacturing sector's income exert significant effects on the import of refined motor spirit. Further, significant effects of REER, DEP, previous PGR, domestic output of the product and manufacturing and service sectors' incomes on the import demand for distillate fuel were found. Policy implications of the foregoing are articulated in the paper. - Highlights: •Long-run and short-run drivers of import demand for petroleum products were estimated. •kerosene import is income elastic, gasoline import is income and relative price inelastic. •Exchange rate policies may have diverse effects on import of various petroleum product. •Expanding market size has implication for import demand for petroleum product varieties. •Import demand for petroleum products responds differently to various sectoral incomes.

Long-term outlook of energy demand and supply in Japan. Estimation of energy demand and supply for 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' of JAEA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatematsu, Kenji; Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Nemoto, Masahiro; Murakami, Masakazu

2009-06-01

In this study, we showed an energy demand and supply scenario toward the year 2100 in Japan, which underlies JAEA's 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' published in October 2008. This energy demand and supply scenario aimed at the coexistence of the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission and the energy security through reduction of the fossil fuel usage, positive electrification and the nuclear energy usage. We reduced the ratio of the fossil fuel in the primary energy supply to about 1/3 and extend the share of renewable and nuclear energy to 70% from current 15%. As a result, the carbon dioxide emission was reduced to current 10%, and it developed that the half was the contribution of the nuclear energy. (author)

Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Boqiang; Xie, Chunping

2013-01-01

China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector. - Highlights: • We adopt the co-integration model to estimate oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector. • Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. • GDP, ratio of classified highway, labor productivity and oil price are main factors affecting oil consumption. • Scenario analysis approach is applied to calculate oil saving potential under different energy saving scenarios. • Future policy for oil conservation in China's road transport sector is suggested

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan, Hubert Y.; Haffty, Bruce G.; Falit, Benjamin P.; Buchholz, Thomas A.; Wilson, Lynn D.; Hahn, Stephen M.; Smith, Benjamin D.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pan, Hubert Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Haffty, Bruce G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School – University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey (United States); Falit, Benjamin P. [Radiation Oncology Associates, Lowell, Massachusetts (United States); Buchholz, Thomas A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Wilson, Lynn D. [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut (United States); Hahn, Stephen M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Smith, Benjamin D., E-mail: bsmith3@mdanderson.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

2016-11-01

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

Eddy current and total power loss separation in the iron-phosphate-polyepoxy soft magnetic composites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taghvaei, A.H.; Shokrollahi, H.; Janghorban, K.; Abiri, H.

2009-01-01

This work investigates the magnetic properties of iron-phosphate-polyepoxy soft magnetic composite materials. FTIR spectra, EDX analysis, distribution maps, X-ray diffraction pattern and density measurements show that the particles surface layer contains a thin layer of nanocrystalline/amorphous phosphate with high coverage of powders surface. In this paper, a formula for calculating the eddy current loss and total loss components by loss separation method is presented and finally the different parts of power losses are calculated. The results show that, the contribution of eddy current in the bulk material for single coating layer (k b = 0.18) is higher in comparison with double coating layer (k b = 0.09). Moreover, iron-phosphate-polyepoxy composites (P = 0.000004f 2 ) have lower power loss in comparison with iron-phosphate composites (P = 0.00002f 2 ).

Current Market Demand for Core Competencies of Librarianship—A Text Mining Study of American Library Association’s Advertisements from 2009 through 2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qinghong Yang

2016-02-01

Full Text Available As librarianship evolves, it is important to examine the changes that have taken place in professional requirements. To provide an understanding of the current market demand for core competencies of librarianship, this article conducts a semi-automatic methodology to analyze job advertisements (ads posted on the American Library Association (ALA Joblist from 2009 through 2014. There is evidence that the ability to solve unexpected complex problems and to provide superior customer service gained increasing importance for librarians during those years. The authors contend that the findings in this report question the status quo of core competencies of librarianship in the US job market.

The UK-DALE dataset, domestic appliance-level electricity demand and whole-house demand from five UK homes

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Jack; Knottenbelt, William

2015-03-01

Many countries are rolling out smart electricity meters. These measure a home’s total power demand. However, research into consumer behaviour suggests that consumers are best able to improve their energy efficiency when provided with itemised, appliance-by-appliance consumption information. Energy disaggregation is a computational technique for estimating appliance-by-appliance energy consumption from a whole-house meter signal. To conduct research on disaggregation algorithms, researchers require data describing not just the aggregate demand per building but also the ‘ground truth’ demand of individual appliances. In this context, we present UK-DALE: an open-access dataset from the UK recording Domestic Appliance-Level Electricity at a sample rate of 16 kHz for the whole-house and at 1/6 Hz for individual appliances. This is the first open access UK dataset at this temporal resolution. We recorded from five houses, one of which was recorded for 655 days, the longest duration we are aware of for any energy dataset at this sample rate. We also describe the low-cost, open-source, wireless system we built for collecting our dataset.

Optimal Advertising with Stochastic Demand

OpenAIRE

George E. Monahan

1983-01-01

A stochastic, sequential model is developed to determine optimal advertising expenditures as a function of product maturity and past advertising. Random demand for the product depends upon an aggregate measure of current and past advertising called "goodwill," and the position of the product in its life cycle measured by sales-to-date. Conditions on the parameters of the model are established that insure that it is optimal to advertise less as the product matures. Additional characteristics o...

Preliminary Examination of the Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Swezey, B.; Aabakken, J.; Bird, L.

2007-10-01

In recent years, the demand for renewable electricity has accelerated as a consequence of state and federal policies and the growth of voluntary green power purchase markets, along with the generally improving economics of renewable energy development. This paper reports on a preliminary examination of the supply and demand balance for renewable electricity in the United States, with a focus on renewable energy projects that meet the generally accepted definition of "new" for voluntary market purposes, i.e., projects installed on or after January 1, 1997. After estimating current supply and demand, this paper presents projections of the supply and demand balance out to 2010 and describe a number of key market uncertainties.

Tourism and water use: Supply, demand, and security. An international review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gössling, S.; Peeters, P.M.; Hall, C.M.; Ceron, J.P.; Dubois, G.; Lehmann, L.V.; Scott, D.

2012-01-01

This article reviews direct freshwater consumption in tourism from both quantitative and qualitative viewpoints to assess the current water demand of the tourism sector and to identify current and future management challenges. The article concludes that even though tourism increases global water

Conceptual Demand of Science Curricula: A Study at the Middle School Level

Science.gov (United States)

Calado, Sílvia; Neves, Isabel P.; Morais, Ana M.

2013-01-01

This article addresses the issue of the level of conceptual demand of science curricula by analysing the case of the current Portuguese Natural Sciences curriculum for middle school. Conceptual demand is seen in terms of the complexity of cognitive skills, the complexity of scientific knowledge and the intra-disciplinary relations between distinct…

A Work Psychological Model that Works: Expanding the Job Demands-Resources Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Xanthopoulou, D.

2007-01-01

The main purpose of the current thesis was to test and expand the recently developed Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. The advantage of this model is that it recognizes the uniqueness of each work environment, which has its own specific job demands and job resources. According to the JD-R model,

Safety stock or safety lead time : coping with unreliability in demand and supply

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Kampen, T.J.; van Donk, D.P.; van der Zee, D.J.

2010-01-01

Safety stock and safety lead time are common measures used to cope with uncertainties in demand and supply. Typically, these uncertainties are studied in isolated instances, ignoring settings with uncertainties both in demand and in supply. The current literature largely neglects case study based

China's Coal: Demand, Constraints, and Externalities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aden, Nathaniel; Fridley, David; Zheng, Nina

2009-07-01

This study analyzes China's coal industry by focusing on four related areas. First, data are reviewed to identify the major drivers of historical and future coal demand. Second, resource constraints and transport bottlenecks are analyzed to evaluate demand and growth scenarios. The third area assesses the physical requirements of substituting coal demand growth with other primary energy forms. Finally, the study examines the carbon- and environmental implications of China's past and future coal consumption. There are three sections that address these areas by identifying particular characteristics of China's coal industry, quantifying factors driving demand, and analyzing supply scenarios: (1) reviews the range of Chinese and international estimates of remaining coal reserves and resources as well as key characteristics of China's coal industry including historical production, resource requirements, and prices; (2) quantifies the largest drivers of coal usage to produce a bottom-up reference projection of 2025 coal demand; and (3) analyzes coal supply constraints, substitution options, and environmental externalities. Finally, the last section presents conclusions on the role of coal in China's ongoing energy and economic development. China has been, is, and will continue to be a coal-powered economy. In 2007 Chinese coal production contained more energy than total Middle Eastern oil production. The rapid growth of coal demand after 2001 created supply strains and bottlenecks that raise questions about sustainability. Urbanization, heavy industrial growth, and increasing per-capita income are the primary interrelated drivers of rising coal usage. In 2007, the power sector, iron and steel, and cement production accounted for 66% of coal consumption. Power generation is becoming more efficient, but even extensive roll-out of the highest efficiency units would save only 14% of projected 2025 coal demand for the power sector. A new wedge of

Natural gas supply, demand and price outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

Natural gas consumption in the US grew 15.9 percent between 1986 and 1989. Its share of total primary energy use in the US grew from 22.5 percent to 23.8 percent. Despite unusually warm weather and an economic downturn, natural gas use in the first eight months of 1990 fell only modestly from its 1989 pace - while its market share of US total primary energy use has remained stable. The American Gas Association's Total Energy Resource Analysis energy modeling system (A.G.A.-TERA) projects continued growth in natural gas demand and supply. Natural gas is projected to gain a growing share of total US primary use. Natural gas prices are projected to be sufficient to encourage growth in well completions and reserve additions, yet competitive with electricity, fuel oil and other alternative forms of energy

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Out-of-hours demand in primary care: frequency, mode of contact and reasons for encounter in Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

Huber, Carola A; Rosemann, Thomas; Zoller, Marco; Eichler, Klaus; Senn, Oliver

2011-02-01

To investigate the demand for traditional out-of-hours general practitioner (GP) emergency care in Switzerland including GPs' satisfaction and reasons for encounter (RFE). During a 2-month period (2009), a questionnaire-based, cross-sectional study was performed in GPs participating in the mandatory out-of-hours service in the city of Zurich, Switzerland. The number and mode of patient contacts were assessed to investigate the demand for GP care in traditional out-of-hours services. GPs and patient characteristics, including RFE according to the International Classification of Primary Care, were noted. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests were conducted. Out of the 295 out-of-hours episodes during the study period, 148 (50%) duty periods were documented by a total of 93 GPs (75% men) with a mean (SD) age of 48.0 (6.2) years. The median (interquartile range) number of out-of-hours contacts was 5 (3-8) and the demand for home visits was significantly more common compared with practice and telephone consultations. A total of 112 different RFEs were responsible for the 382 documented patient contacts with fever accounting for the most common complaint (13.9%). Although 80% of GPs agreed to be satisfied overall with their profession as primary care provider, 57.6% among them were dissatisfied with the current out-of-hours service. Inappropriate payment and interference with their daily work in practice were most frequently reported. Our findings indicate that there is still strong patient demand for out-of-hours care with special need for home visits, suggesting that new organizational models such as integrating GPs into emergency care may not be an appropriate approach for all patients. Therefore, the ongoing reorganization of the out-of-hours-service in many health care systems has to be evaluated carefully in order not to miss important patient needs. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Heuristic Scheduling in Grid Environments: Reducing the Operational Energy Demand

Science.gov (United States)

Bodenstein, Christian

In a world where more and more businesses seem to trade in an online market, the supply of online services to the ever-growing demand could quickly reach its capacity limits. Online service providers may find themselves maxed out at peak operation levels during high-traffic timeslots but too little demand during low-traffic timeslots, although the latter is becoming less frequent. At this point deciding which user is allocated what level of service becomes essential. The concept of Grid computing could offer a meaningful alternative to conventional super-computing centres. Not only can Grids reach the same computing speeds as some of the fastest supercomputers, but distributed computing harbors a great energy-saving potential. When scheduling projects in such a Grid environment however, simply assigning one process to a system becomes so complex in calculation that schedules are often too late to execute, rendering their optimizations useless. Current schedulers attempt to maximize the utility, given some sort of constraint, often reverting to heuristics. This optimization often comes at the cost of environmental impact, in this case CO 2 emissions. This work proposes an alternate model of energy efficient scheduling while keeping a respectable amount of economic incentives untouched. Using this model, it is possible to reduce the total energy consumed by a Grid environment using 'just-in-time' flowtime management, paired with ranking nodes by efficiency.

Comprehensive Forecast of Urban Water-Energy Demand Based on a Neural Network Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ziyi Yin

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Water-energy nexus has been a popular topic of rese arch in recent years. The relationships between the demand for water resources and energy are intense and closely connected in urban areas. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industry gross domestic product (GDP, the total population, the urban population, annual precipitation, agricultural and industrial water consumption, tap water supply, the total discharge of industrial wastewater, the daily sewage treatment capacity, total and domestic electricity consumption, and the consumption of coal in industrial enterprises above the designed size were chosen as input indicators. A feedforward artificial neural network model (ANN based on a back-propagation algorithm with two hidden layers was constructed to combine urban water resources with energy demand. This model used historical data from 1991 to 2016 from Wuxi City, eastern China. Furthermore, a multiple linear regression model (MLR was introduced for comparison with the ANN. The results show the following: (a The mean relative error values of the forecast and historical urban water-energy demands are 1.58 % and 2.71%, respectively; (b The predicted water-energy demand value for 2020 is 4.843 billion cubic meters and 47.561 million tons of standard coal equivalent; (c The predicted water-energy demand value in the year 2030 is 5.887 billion cubic meters and 60.355 million tons of standard coal equivalent; (d Compared with the MLR, the ANN performed better in fitting training data, which achieved a more satisfactory accuracy and may provide a reference for urban water-energy supply planning decisions.

A comparative study on prediction methods for China's medium- and long-term coal demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Bing-Bing; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Wang, Jin-Cheng

2015-01-01

Given the dominant position of coal in China's energy structure and in order to ensure a safe and stable energy supply, it is essential to perform a scientific and effective prediction of China's medium- and long-term coal demand. Based on the historical data of coal consumption and related factors such as GDP (Gross domestic product), coal price, industrial structure, total population, energy structure, energy efficiency, coal production and urbanization rate from 1987 to 2012, this study compared the prediction effects of five types of models. These models include the VAR (vector autoregressive model), RBF (radial basis function) neural network model, GA-DEM (genetic algorithm demand estimation model), PSO-DEM (particle swarm optimization demand estimation model) and IO (input–output model). By comparing the results of different models with the corresponding actual coal consumption, it is concluded that with a testing period from 2006 to 2012, the PSO-DEM model has a relatively optimal predicted effect on China's total coal demand, where the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) is close to or below 2%. - Highlights: • The prediction effects of five methods for China's coal demand were compared. • Each model has acceptable prediction results, with MAPE below 5%. • Particle swarm optimization demand estimation model has better forecast efficacy.

Energy infrastructure modeling for the oil sands industry: Current situation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazzaroni, Edoardo Filippo; Elsholkami, Mohamed; Arbiv, Itai; Martelli, Emanuele; Elkamel, Ali; Fowler, Michael

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A simulation-based modelling of energy demands of oil sands operations is proposed. • Aspen simulations used to simulate delayed coking-based upgrading of bitumen. • The energy infrastructure is simulated using Aspen Plus achieving self-sufficiency. • Various scenarios affecting energy demand intensities are investigated. • Energy and CO_2 emission intensities of integrated SAGD/upgrading are estimated. - Abstract: In this study, the total energy requirements associated with the production of bitumen from oil sands and its upgrading to synthetic crude oil (SCO) are modeled and quantified. The production scheme considered is based on the commercially applied steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) for bitumen extraction and delayed coking for bitumen upgrading. In addition, the model quantifies the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production of energy required for these operations from technologies utilized in the currently existing oil sands energy infrastructure. The model is based on fundamental engineering principles, and Aspen HYSYS and Aspen Plus simulations. The energy demand results are expressed in terms of heat, power, hydrogen, and process fuel consumption rates for SAGD extraction and bitumen upgrading. Based on the model’s output, a range of overall energy and emission intensity factors are estimated for a bitumen production rate of 112,500 BPD (or 93,272 BPD of SCO), which were determined to be 262.5–368.5 MJ/GJ_S_C_O and 14.17–19.84 gCO_2/MJ_S_C_O, respectively. The results of the model indicate that the majority of GHG emissions are generated during SAGD extraction (up to 60% of total emissions) due to the combustion of natural gas for steam production, and the steam-to-oil ratio is a major parameter affecting total GHG emissions. The developed model can be utilized as a tool to predict the energy demand requirements for integrated SAGD/upgrading projects under different operating conditions, and

Innovation and Demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Esben Sloth

2007-01-01

the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....

Probabilistic Predictions of Traffic Demand for En Route Sectors Based on Individual Flight Data

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

The Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) predicts the demand for each sector, and traffic managers use these predictions to spot possible congestion and to take measures to prevent it. These predictions of sector demand, however, are currently made ...

Economic Value Approach to Industrial Water Demand Management, A Case Study of Chemical Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

morteza tahami pour zarandi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Limitations in water supply to meet the increasing demand have encouraged both planners and researchers to focus attention on water demand management, in which such economic tools as the water pricing system play a major role. A fundamental component of the pricing system is the estimation of the economic value of water, which reflects a firm’s maximum affordable water price or the ultimate elasticity of industrial water. The present study was conducted to estimate the economic value of water for basic chemical plants, excluding fertilizers and nitrogen compounds (code 2411, representing the four-digit ISIC industrial codes which account for about 14% of the total industrial water consumption. The econometric method of production function within the framework of panel data and the residual method were used. Data were collected from the Census of medium-sized businesses carried out by the Statistical Center of Iran over the period 1997–2013.  Results showed that one cubic meter of water allocated to the plants surveyed creates a value of 3,7071 Rials, which shows a large gap with the current purchase price of 5685 Rials. Moreover, it was found that the present water prices account for only about 1.3 percent of the total production cost of basic chemicals, excluding fertilizers and nitrogen compounds. It may, thus, be concluded that it is reasonable to increase the present water tariffs and discriminate among the various manufacturing codes by differences in tariffs in order to achieve water demand management goals. Finally, the information emerging from the study may be exploited to improve the revenues earned by water authorities or to carry out feasibility studies of industrial water development projects.

Demand chain management - The evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D Ericsson

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The concepts of Supply Chain Management (SCM and Demand Chain Management (DCM are among the new and debated topics concerning logistics in the literature. The question considered in this paper is: “Are these concepts needed or will they just add to the confusion?” Lasting business concepts have always evolved in close interaction between business and academia. Different approaches start out in business and they are then, more or less si- multaneously, aligned, integrated, systemised and structured in academia. In this way a terminology (or language is provided that helps in further diffusion of the concepts. There is a lack of consensus on the definition of the concept of SCM. This may be one of the major reasons for the difficulty in advancing the science and measuring the results of implementation in business. Relationships in SCM span from rather loose coalitions to highly structured virtual network integrations. DCM is a highly organised chain in which the key is mutual interdependence and partnership. The purpose is to create a distinctive competence for the chain as a whole that helps to identify and satisfy customer needs and wishes. The classical research concerning vertical marketing systems is very helpful in systemising the rather unstructured discussions in current SCM research. The trend lies in increasing competition between channels rather than between companies, which in turn leads to the creation of channels with a high degree of partnership and mutual interdependence between members. These types of channels are known as organised vertical marketing systems in the classic marketing channel research. The behaviour in these types of channels, as well as the formal and informal structures, roles in the network, power and dependence relations, etc. are well covered topics in the literature. The concept of vertical marketing systems lies behind the definition of demand chains and demand chain management proposed in this paper. A

Maintenance Production Demand and Capacity Analysis of Third Maintenance Battalion

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

Delivery T/E Table of Equipment TFSMS Total Force Structure Management System TFSP Total Force Structure Process TM Technical Manual T/O Table of...exercises each year, both on Okinawa and throughout the Pacific theater. When equipment requires maintenance beyond the organizational -level...demand was analyzed based on customer cycle time (i.e., time that equipment was in Third Maintenance Battalion custody), maintenance cycle time during

Marketing analysis of the demand for housing under construction in Chelyabinsk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trofimenko Elena Jur'evna

2015-04-01

Full Text Available In the article the urgency of studying the demand for housing under construction in Chelyabinsk, studied Rosreestra data on quantity of completed contracts for the purchase of property, assess the current state of the real estate market in Chelyabinsk; consumer demand in the property market in Chelyabinsk (size, structure; socio-demographic characteristics of consumers of residential property; consumer preferences when buying a residential property.

An integrated vendor-buyer model with stock-dependent demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sajadieh, Mohsen S.; Thorstenson, Anders; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad R.

in a display area. The end-customer demand is assumed to be positively dependent on the amount of items shown in the display area. With the proposed model we determine the buyer's optimal shipment quantity and number of shipments, as well as the vendor's optimal production batch. The objective is to maximize...... total supply chain profit. The numerical analysis shows that it is more profitable for the buyer and the vendor to cooperate in situations when the demand is more stock-dependent. The analysis also shows the effect of double marginalization in this integrated vendor-buyer model....

An integrated vendor-buyer model with stock-dependent demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sajadieh, Mohsen S.; Thorstenson, Anders; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad R.

2010-01-01

We develop an integrated vendor-buyer model for a two-stage supply chain. The vendor manufactures the product and delivers it in a number of equal-sized batches to the buyer. The items delivered are presented to the end customers in a display area. Demand is assumed to be positively dependent...... on the amount of items displayed. The objective is to maximize total supply chain profit. The numerical analysis shows that buyer-vendor coordination is more profitable in situations when demand is more stock dependent. It also shows that the effect of double marginalization provides a link between the non...

An Integrated Vendor-Buyer Model with Stock-Dependent Demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorstenson, Anders; Sajadieh, Mohsen S.; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad R.

2009-01-01

in the buyer's warehouse. The demand is assumed to be positively dependent on the amount of items shown in the display area. The proposed model determines the buyer's optimal shipment quantity and number of shipments, as well as the vendor's optimal production batch. The objective is to maximize total supply......-chain profit. The numerical analysis shows that as long as the maximum display area is not used, it is more valuable for the buyer and the vendor to cooperate in situations when the demand is more stock- dependent. It also shows the effect of double marginalization in this integrated vendor-buyer model....

Total hip arthroplasty at the rothman institute.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Matthew S; Higuera, Carlos A; Rothman, Richard H

2012-07-01

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is one of the most successful surgical interventions devised in modern times. Attempts to change the current THA procedure with unproven innovations bring the risk of increased failure rates while trying to improve the benefit of the surgery. This manuscript examines the evolution of THA at the Rothman Institute illustrating the key elements that lead the success of this procedure at this institution. These key elements include femoral stem design, use of highly crossed-linked polyethylene and use of pain and rehabilitation protocols. We attempted to describe the long-term results regarding safety, effectiveness, and durability of specific THA implant designs used at this institution drawing on reported evidence in the literature. The authors performed a review of peer-reviewed articles related to the Rothman Institute's experience with THA. Total hip arthroplasty is an efficient, safe, and durable procedure. It is a highly successful operation to restore function and improve pain. The survivorship of THA procedures at the Rothman Institute is higher than 99% at 10 years based on mechanical failure. The use of collarless, tapered wedge femoral stem, highly crossed-linked polyethylene, and improved pain rehabilitation protocols have contributed to this success. There is a well-documented long-term survivorship after THA. Future innovation in THA should address new challenges with younger and more demanding patients, rather than change current methods that have a proven good survivorship. This innovation depends mainly upon improvements in the bearing surfaces and advances in pain control and rehabilitation.

Peculiarities in the demand forecast for an HSRL connecting two countries. Case of Kuala Lumpur Singapore HSRL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tadeo Martin, A.; Rey Romero, P.

2016-07-01

The High Speed Rail Line (HSRL) between Kuala Lumpur (KL) and Singapore (SP) is aimed at reducing to 90 minutes the travel time between two of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant and fast-growing economic engines. Ineco was hired by the Government of Malaysia to forecast the demand for the future HSRL. The Government of Malaysia played a key role when firstly defining the current situation on the corridor and the features of the HSRL, and then providing Ineco with the studies previously developed by them. Besides the obvious interest in connecting both capital cities, Malaysia wishes to promote the economic development of intermediate cities, whereas Singapore, a 718 square-kilometer city-state and island, is interested in improving its connection with Nusajaya - a Malaysian city that is being developed just across the border and regarded as land reserves. Two kinds of services will be provided on the new rail infrastructure: non-stop services between KL and SP, and services with 6 intermediate stops on the Malaysian side. The aim of this paper is to describe the process to forecast the demand for the HSRL Kuala Lumpur – Singapore by focusing on the peculiarities of an international HSRL. Identifying these aspects at an early stage is vital to get a better demand estimate and to reconsider the HSRL characteristics if necessary. The demand for the new line was calculated by applying a three-step model: generation model, distribution model and modal split model. In 2030, 10 years after the opening year, the HSRL is expected to move 23 - 26 million passengers – baseline and optimistic scenarios, respectively -, which represents an 18.5% share of the total demand on the corridor. The demand for the KL-SP pair will account for 30% the demand for the future HSRL. (Author)

Longrun supply and demand of new residential construction in the United States: 1986 to 2040.

Science.gov (United States)

Claire A. Montgomery

1989-01-01

A model of U.S. housing demand and supply was developed that projects housing starts for use in long-term forest planning. Housing demand was shown to respond to the current sale price and the user capital cost of housing and to the size and age composition of the population. Current sale price is determined in the new construction market. Supply of new construction...

Retention in physically demanding jobs of individuals with low back pain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt Hansen, Bjarke; Kirkeskov, Lilli; Christensen, Robin

2015-01-01

is associated with physical and mental well-being, so, patients may benefit from an early additional occupational medicine intervention. For individuals with physically demanding jobs it can be especially challenging to retain their jobs. The aim of the 'GoBack trial' is to develop and evaluate the efficacy...... and feasibility of an occupational medicine intervention for individuals with low back pain in physically demanding jobs. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a randomised controlled trial enrolling 300 participants with difficulty in maintaining physically demanding jobs due to low back pain for a current period of 2...... intervention model for individuals with low back pain in physically demanding jobs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT02015572 ) on 29 November 2013....

Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Hejazi, Mohamad I. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Clarke, Leon E. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Kyle, G. Page [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Davies, Evan [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Wise, Marshall A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)

2013-03-01

Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved

Effective Heuristics for Capacitated Production Planning with Multiperiod Production and Demand with Forecast Band Refinement

OpenAIRE

Philip Kaminsky; Jayashankar M. Swaminathan

2004-01-01

In this paper we extend forecast band evolution and capacitated production modelling to the multiperiod demand case. In this model, forecasts of discrete demand for any period are modelled as bands and defined by lower and upper bounds on demand, such that future forecasts lie within the current band. We develop heuristics that utilize knowledge of demand forecast evolution to make production decisions in capacitated production planning environments. In our computational study we explore the ...

U.S. electric utility demand-side management 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

The US Electric Utility Demand-Side Management report is prepared by the Coal and Electric Data and Renewables Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternative Fuels; Energy Information Administration (EIA); US Department of Energy. The report presents comprehensive information on electric power industry demand-side management (DSM) activities in the US at the national, regional, and utility levels. The objective of the publication is to provide industry decision makers, government policy makers, analysts, and the general public with historical data that may be used in understanding DSM as it relates to the US electric power industry. The first chapter, ''Profile: US Electric Utility Demand-Side Management'', presents a general discussion of DSM, its history, current issues, and a review of key statistics for the year. Subsequent chapters present discussions and more detailed data on energy savings, peak load reductions and costs attributable to DSM. 9 figs., 24 tabs

Analysis of Cool Roof Coatings for Residential Demand Side Management in Tropical Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendy Miller

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Cool roof coatings have a beneficial impact on reducing the heat load of a range of building types, resulting in reduced cooling energy loads. This study seeks to understand the extent to which cool roof coatings could be used as a residential demand side management (DSM strategy for retrofitting existing housing in a constrained network area in tropical Australia where peak electrical demand is heavily influenced by residential cooling loads. In particular this study seeks to determine whether simulation software used for building regulation purposes can provide networks with the ‘impact certainty’ required by their DSM principles. The building simulation method is supported by a field experiment. Both numerical and experimental data confirm reductions in total consumption (kWh and energy demand (kW. The nature of the regulated simulation software, combined with the diverse nature of residential buildings and their patterns of occupancy, however, mean that simulated results cannot be extrapolated to quantify benefits to a broader distribution network. The study suggests that building data gained from regulatory simulations could be a useful guide for potential impacts of widespread application of cool roof coatings in this region. The practical realization of these positive impacts, however, would require changes to the current business model for the evaluation of DSM strategies. The study provides seven key recommendations that encourage distribution networks to think beyond their infrastructure boundaries, recognising that the broader energy system also includes buildings, appliances and people.

On the interpretation of total current spectroscopy (TCS) spectra from MoS2 crystals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohamed, M.H.; Moeller, P.J.

1981-01-01

Total Current Spectroscopy (TCS) spectra from MoS 2 (0001) face for three different angles of incidence of the primary beam with respect to the c-axis as well as TCS spectrum from an edge surface cut perpendicularly to the (001) face of a molybdenite crystal are given. Energy positions of the TCS structure are found to be independent of the variations in the angle of incidence of the primary beam and also of the change of crystal face. From this it is concluded that the fine structure in the TCS spectra from molybdenite crystal for the primary energies studied is due to electron-electron scattering and not to Bragg interference effects. (author)

Saving money vs investing money: Do energy ratings influence consumer demand for energy efficient goods?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panzone, Luca A.

2013-01-01

The article analyses economic barriers leading to the energy efficiency gap in the market for energy-using products by observing several million transactions in the UK over two years. The empirical exercise estimates AIDS models for refrigerators, washing machines, TVs, and light bulbs. Results indicate that market barriers are crucial in the demand for energy efficient options, and consumer response to changes in appliance prices, total expenditures, and energy prices depends on the possibility of behavioural adjustments in consumption. In contrast with the induced innovation hypothesis, current electricity prices can fail to induce innovation because of their short-term impact on disposable income, while consumers invest in energy efficiency when expecting electricity prices to rise in the future. - Highlights: • The article analyses economic barriers to energy efficiency in the UK. • Data refers to 2-year sales of refrigerators, washing machines, TV, and light bulbs. • Demand parameters by efficiency rating are estimated from four AIDS models. • Future (not present) electricity prices induce investments in energy efficiency. • Behavioural efficiency adjustments explain differences in market response

Expected international demand for woody and herbaceous feedstock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lamers, Patrick [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Jacobson, Jacob [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mohammad, Roni [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Wright, Christopher [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-03-01

The development of a U.S. bioenergy market and ultimately ‘bioeconomy’ has primarily been investigated with a national focus. Limited attention has been given to the potential impacts of international market developments. The goal of this project is to advance the current State of Technology of a single biorefinery to the global level providing quantitative estimates on how international markets may influence the domestic feedstock supply costs. The scope of the project is limited to feedstock that is currently available and new crops being developed to be used in a future U.S. bioeconomy including herbaceous residues (e.g., corn stover), woody biomass (e.g., pulpwood), and energy crops (e.g., switchgrass). The timeframe is set to the periods of 2022, 2030, and 2040 to align with current policy targets (e.g., the RFS2) and future updates of the Billion Ton data. This particular milestone delivers demand volumes for generic woody and herbaceous feedstocks for the main (net) importing regions along the above timeframes. The regional focus of the study is the European Union (EU), currently the largest demand region for U.S. pellets made from pulpwood and forest residues. The pellets are predominantly used in large-scale power plants (>5MWel) in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), Belgium (BE), and Denmark (DK).

High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Möller, Bernd; Nielsen, Steffen

2014-01-01

Significant reductions of heat demand, low-carbon and renewable energy sources, and district heating are key elements in 100% renewable energy systems. Appraisal of district heating along with energy efficient buildings and individual heat supply requires a geographical representation of heat...... demand, energy efficiency and energy supply. The present paper describes a Heat Atlas built around a spatial database using geographical information systems (GIS). The present atlas allows for per-building calculations of potentials and costs of energy savings, connectivity to existing district heat......, and current heat supply and demand. For the entire building mass a conclusive link is established between the built environment and its heat supply. The expansion of district heating; the interconnection of distributed district heating systems; or the question whether to invest in ultra-efficient buildings...

Asian oil demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fesharaki, F.

2005-01-01

This conference presentation examined global oil market development and the role of Asian demand. It discussed plateau change versus cyclical movement in the global oil market; supply and demand issues of OPEC and non-OPEC oil; if high oil prices reduce demand; and the Asian oil picture in the global context. Asian oil demand has accounted for about 50 per cent of the global incremental oil market growth. The presentation provided data charts in graphical format on global and Asia-Pacific incremental oil demand from 1990-2005; Asia oil demand growth for selected nations; real GDP growth in selected Asian countries; and, Asia-Pacific oil production and net import requirements. It also included charts in petroleum product demand for Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Other data charts included key indicators for China's petroleum sector; China crude production and net oil import requirements; China's imports and the share of the Middle East; China's oil exports and imports; China's crude imports by source for 2004; China's imports of main oil products for 2004; India's refining capacity; India's product balance for net-imports and net-exports; and India's trade pattern of oil products. tabs., figs

The metabolic power and energetic demands of elite Gaelic football match play.

Science.gov (United States)

Malone, Shane; Solan, Barry; Collins, Kieran; Doran, Dominic

2017-05-01

Metabolic power has not yet been investigated within elite Gaelic football. The aim of the current investigation was to compare the metabolic power demands between positional groups and examine the temporal profile of elite Gaelic football match play. Global positional satellite system (GPS) data were collected from 50 elite Gaelic football players from 4 inter-county teams during 35 elite competitive matches over a three season period. A total of 351 complete match samples were obtained for final analysis. Players were categorized based on positional groups; full-back, half-back, midfield, half-forward and full-forward. Instantaneous raw velocity data was obtained from the GPS and exported to a customized spreadsheet which provided estimations of both speed based, derived metabolic power and energy expenditure variables (total distance, high speed distance, average metabolic power, high power distance and total energy expenditure). Match mean distance was 9222±1588 m, reflective of an average metabolic power of 9.5-12.5 W·kg-1, with an average energy expenditure of 58-70 Kj·kg-1 depending on position. There were significant differences between positional groups for both speed-based and metabolic power indices. Midfielders covered more total and high-speed distance, as well as greater average and overall energy expenditure compared to other positions (Ppower distance, as well as average metabolic power throughout the match (Ppower and traditional running based variables. The middle three positions (midfield, half-back and half-forward) possess greater activity profiles when compared to other positional groups. The reduction in metabolic power and traditional running based variables are comparable across match play. The current study demonstrates that metabolic power may contribute to our understanding of Gaelic football match-play.

What is the Impact of Utility Demand Charges on a DCFC host

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francfort, James Edward

2015-01-01

The PEV Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) delivered by The EV Project included both AC Level 2 and DCFC units. Over 100 of these dual-port Blink DC fast chargers were deployed by The EV Project. These DCFCs were installed in workplaces and in publicly accessible locations near traffic hubs, retail centers, parking lots, restaurants, and similar locations. The Blink DCFC is capable of charging at power up to 60 kW. Its dual-port design sequences the charge from one port to the other, delivering power to only one of two vehicles connected at a time. The actual power delivered through a port is determined by the PEV's on-board battery management system (BMS). Both the power and the total energy used to recharge a PEV can represent a significant cost for the charging site host. Many electric utilities impose fees for power demand as part of their commercial rate structure. The demand charge incurred by a customer is related to the peak power used during a monthly billing cycle. This is in contrast to the cumulative total energy usage that is the more familiar utility charge seen for most residential services. A demand charge is typically assessed for the highest average power over any 15 minute interval during the monthly billing cycle. One objective of The EV Project was to identify and elucidate the motivations and barriers to potential DCFC site hosts. The application of electric utility demand charges is one such potential barrier. This subject was introduced in the paper: DC Fast Charge - Demand Charge Reduction1. It discussed demand charge impact in general terms in order to focus on potential mitigation actions. This paper identifies specific cases in order to quantify the impact of demand charges on EV Project DCFC hosts.

What is the Impact of Utility Demand Charges on a DCFC host

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Francfort, James Edward [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-06-01

The PEV Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) delivered by The EV Project included both AC Level 2 and DCFC units. Over 100 of these dual-port Blink DC fast chargers were deployed by The EV Project. These DCFCs were installed in workplaces and in publicly accessible locations near traffic hubs, retail centers, parking lots, restaurants, and similar locations. The Blink DCFC is capable of charging at power up to 60 kW. Its dual-port design sequences the charge from one port to the other, delivering power to only one of two vehicles connected at a time. The actual power delivered through a port is determined by the PEV’s on-board battery management system (BMS). Both the power and the total energy used to recharge a PEV can represent a significant cost for the charging site host. Many electric utilities impose fees for power demand as part of their commercial rate structure. The demand charge incurred by a customer is related to the peak power used during a monthly billing cycle. This is in contrast to the cumulative total energy usage that is the more familiar utility charge seen for most residential services. A demand charge is typically assessed for the highest average power over any 15 minute interval during the monthly billing cycle. One objective of The EV Project was to identify and elucidate the motivations and barriers to potential DCFC site hosts. The application of electric utility demand charges is one such potential barrier. This subject was introduced in the paper: DC Fast Charge - Demand Charge Reduction1. It discussed demand charge impact in general terms in order to focus on potential mitigation actions. This paper identifies specific cases in order to quantify the impact of demand charges on EV Project DCFC hosts.

Motor fuel demand analysis - applied modelling in the European union; Modelisation de la demande de carburant appliquee a l`europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chorazewiez, S

1998-01-19

Motor fuel demand in Europe amounts to almost half of petroleum products consumption and to thirty percent of total final energy consumption. This study considers, Firstly, the energy policies of different European countries and the ways in which the consumption of motor gasoline and automotive gas oil has developed. Secondly it provides an abstract of demand models in the energy sector, illustrating their specific characteristics. Then it proposes an economic model of automotive fuel consumption, showing motor gasoline and automotive gas oil separately over a period of thirty years (1960-1993) for five main countries in the European Union. Finally, forecasts of consumption of gasoline and diesel up to the year 2020 are given for different scenarios. (author) 330 refs.

Bilingual Intercultural Education in Ecuador: A Study of Social Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcelo Bastidas Jiménez

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Intercultural Bilingual Education System in Ecuador is guaranteed by the Constitution and assured by the Organic Law of Intercultural Bilingual Education, in a process that took a few decades to the indigenous population. The Ecuadorian state currently counts with a Model of Intercultural Bilingual Education that has its own structure, attached to the Ministry of Education and responsible for generating educational guidelines for 35 indigenous nationalities that coexist in the country. The objective of this study is to analyze the social demand for the Bachelor in Intercultural Bilingual Education, offered by Universidad Politécnica Salesiana. The analysis was carried out through two studies, one of them quantitative, addressed to educational institutions, and the other one qualitative and directed to government officials. The research objectives were to determine the need for graduates in Intercultural Bilingual Education, identify the desired profile of graduates of the career and academic requirements for a successful career. The results highlighted that the current presence of professionals in bilingual intercultural education is 0,65 per institution, with an average necessity of 1,85, which determines the existence of a demand in the next three years of 3 315 professionals. The main conclusion is that there is a significant demand for this career. Although the deficiencies of the current educational system, there in a strengthening trend.

Power plant site evaluation, electric energy demand forecasts - Douglas Point Site. Volume 3. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, J.W.

1975-07-01

This is part of a series of reports containing an evaluation of the proposed Douglas Point nuclear generating station site located on the Potomac River in Maryland 30 miles south of Washington, D.C. This report contains chapters on the Potomac Electric Power Company's market, forecasting future demand, modelling, a residential demand model, a nonresidential demand model, the Southern Maryland Electric Cooperative Model, short term predictive accuracy, and total system requirements

Energy demand analysis in the household, commercial and agriculture sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lapillonne, B.

1991-01-01

This chapter of the publication is dealing with Energy Demand Analysis in the Household, Commercial and Agricultural Sector. Per Capita total energy consumption in the residential and commercial sector is given and variation among countries are discussed. 12 figs, 1 tab

Total body irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novack, D.H.; Kiley, J.P.

1987-01-01

The multitude of papers and conferences in recent years on the use of very large megavoltage radiation fields indicates an increased interest in total body, hemibody, and total nodal radiotherapy for various clinical situations. These include high dose total body irradiation (TBI) to destroy the bone marrow and leukemic cells and provide immunosuppression prior to a bone marrow transplant, high dose total lymphoid irradiation (TLI) prior to bone marrow transplantation in severe aplastic anemia, low dose TBI in the treatment of lymphocytic leukemias or lymphomas, and hemibody irradiation (HBI) in the treatment of advanced multiple myeloma. Although accurate provision of a specific dose and the desired degree of dose homogeneity are two of the physicist's major considerations for all radiotherapy techniques, these tasks are even more demanding for large field radiotherapy. Because most large field radiotherapy is done at an extended distance for complex patient geometries, basic dosimetry data measured at the standard distance (isocenter) must be verified or supplemented. This paper discusses some of the special dosimetric problems of large field radiotherapy, with specific examples given of the dosimetry of the TBI program for bone marrow transplant at the authors' hospital

Revenue impact on the demand of Slovak households for meat and meat products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ľubica Kubicová

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Global economical crisis was felt in the differences in the incomes of the households and their food consumption. In the paper are analyzed the changing patterns in the structure of demand for meat and the impact on total expenditure on meat and meat products in the households of employees, households of self-employed persons and households of pensioners. When examining the sensitivity of demand to changes in consumer meat prices in different social groups of households was estimated own-price elasticity of demand, as well as cross-price elasticity.

A Meta-analysis of the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. A System of Equations Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brons, Martijn; Nijkamp, Peter; Pels, Eric; Rietveld, Piet

2006-01-01

Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In

The effects of session length on demand functions generated using FR schedules.

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, T Mary; Kinloch, Jennifer; Poling, Alan

2011-05-01

In comparing open and closed economies, researchers often arrange shorter sessions under the former condition than under the latter. Several studies indicate that session length per se can affect performance and there are some data that indicate that this variable can influence demand functions. To provide further data, the present study exposed domestic hens to series of increasing fixed-ratio schedules with the length of the open-economy sessions varied over 10, 40, 60, and 120 min. Session time affected the total-session response rates and pause lengths. The shortest session gave the greatest response rates and shortest pauses and the longest gave the lowest response rates and longest pauses. The total-session demand functions also changed with session length: The shortest session gave steeper initial slopes (i.e., the functions were more elastic at small ratios) and smaller rates of change of elasticity than the longest session. Response rates, pauses, and demand functions were, however, similar for equivalent periods of responding taken from within sessions of different overall lengths (e.g., total-session data for 10-min sessions and the data for the first 10 min of 120-min sessions). These findings suggest that differences in session length can confound the results of studies comparing open and closed economies when those economies are arranged in sessions that differ substantially in length, hence data for equivalent-length periods of responding, rather than total-session data, should be of primary interest under these conditions.

Security framework for virtualised infrastructure services provisioned on-demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ngo, C.; Membrey, P.; Demchenko, Y.; de Laat, C.

2011-01-01

Cloud computing is developing as a new wave of ICT technologies, offering a common approach to on-demand provisioning computation, storage and network resources which are generally referred to as infrastructure services. Most of currently available commercial Cloud services are built and organized

Association between job strain (high demand-low control and cardiovascular disease risk factors among petrochemical industry workers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siamak Poorabdian

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Objective: One of the practical models for assessment of stressful working conditions due to job strain is "job demand and control" or Karasek's job strain model. This model explains how adverse physical and psychological effects including cardiovascular disease risk factors can be established due to high work demand. The aim was to investigate how certain cardiovascular risk factors including body mass index (BMI, heart rate, blood pressure, serum total cholesterol levels, and cigarette smoking are associated with job demand and control in workers. Materials and Methods: In this cohort study, 500 subjects completed "job demand and control" questionnaires. Factor analysis method was used in order to specify the most important "job demand and control" questions. Health check-up records of the workers were applied to extract data about cardiovascular disease risk factors. Ultimately, hypothesis testing, based on Eta, was used to assess the relationship between separated working groups and cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension and serum total cholesterol level. Results: A significant relationship was found between the job demand-control model and cardiovascular risk factors. In terms of chisquared test results, the highest value was assessed for heart rate (Chi2 = 145.078. The corresponding results for smoking and BMI were Chi2 = 85.652 and Chi2 = 30.941, respectively. Subsequently, Eta result for total cholesterol was 0.469, followed by hypertension equaling 0.684. Moreover, there was a significant difference between cardiovascular risk factors and job demand-control profiles among different working groups including the operational group, repairing group and servicing group. Conclusion: Job control and demand are significantly related to heart disease risk factors including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and cigarette smoking.

Assessment of demand for and supply of qualified manpower for the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morelle, J.

1993-01-01

The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency recently published a study which presents the results of a pioneering survey of the demand for and the supply of qualified manpower in various sectors of the nuclear industry (including medicine), and in the related areas of regulation and education in 12 OECD countries. The current manpower situation is presented and the future demand is reviewed. Present and future activities of OECD countries to ensure a balance between supply and demand of qualified manpower are discussed

Options for Department of Defense Total Workforce Supply and Demand Analysis: Potential Approaches and Available Data Sources

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at...in Workforce Planning and Potential Modeling of Military Training, Land Defense Science and Technology Organisation , Australian Government Department...Technology Organisation , Australian Government Department of Defense, DSTO-TR-2037, 2007. Ward, D., “Workforce Demand Forecasting Techniques,” Human

[Supply and demand of medical specialists in the health facilities of the Ministry of Health: national, regional and by type of specialty gaps].

Science.gov (United States)

Zevallos, Leslie; Pastor, Reyna; Moscoso, Betsy

2011-06-01

To characterize the supply, demand and the gap of medical specialists in facilities of the Ministry of Health of Peru (MINSA) at the national, regional and specialty type levels. Observational, descriptive study through which we calculated the supply of medical specialists using secondary sources of MINSA. The analysis of the demand for medical specialists was based on two methodologies: the need for specialists according to the guidelines of classification of the health facilities and according to the epidemiological and demographic profile. The arithmetic difference between the estimated demand and the supply was the procedure used to calculate the gap of medical specialists. The Ministry of Health has a total supply at the national level of 6,074 medical specialists of which 61.5% belong to the clinical specialties, 33.2% to the surgical specialties, 4.9% specialities related to aid to diagnosis and treatment and 0.4% to public health specialties. According to the categorization guideline there is a total demand of 11,176 medical specialists and according to the epidemiological and demographic profile of 11,738. The national estimated gaps found are similar in both methods, although they differ widely across regions and by type of specialty. At the regional level, the gaps are greater in Loreto, Piura, Puno and Madre de Dios when estimating the defficit in relation to the supply. Regarding the speciality, the gap is greater in the four basic specialties: gynecology and obstetrics, pediatrics, internal medicine and general surgery. There is a waid gap between supply and demand of medical specialists at the national and regional levels, as a whole representing approximately 45% of the current offer, regardless of the estimation method.

Financial, operating results, assets total down for OGJ300

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1993-01-01

Financial and operating results of the Oil and Gas Journal 300 dropped again in 1992. It was the second consecutive set of declines for OGJ's list of the largest publicly traded, oil and gas producing companies in the U.S. Totals fell from 1991 results in almost all categories for financial and operating performance. Group net income fell sharply in 1992. Large, integrated companies reported sharp earnings declines, many of them related to special charges for restructuring and mandatory accounting changes. In addition, revenues were suppressed by lower crude and product prices below levels of 1991 and a decline in total crude production. This was partially offset by higher prices and demand for natural gas and by increased demand for petroleum products. The paper discusses the economic situation in the petroleum and natural gas industries then gives extensive data on the following: total assets, total income, net income, stockholders' equity, capital spending, worldwide and US liquids production, worldwide and US natural gas production, worldwide and US liquids reserves, worldwide and US natural gas reserves, and US net wells drilled

Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lian Pin Koh

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%, and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%, respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.

Outdoor recreation in American life: a national assessment of demand and supply trends.

Science.gov (United States)

H. Ken Cordell; Carter Betz; J. Michael Bowker; Donald B.K. English; Shela H. Mou; John C. Bergstrom; R. Jeff Teasley; Michael A. Tarrant; John Loomis

1999-01-01

Outdoor Recreation in American Life is the United States' only ongoing, comprehensive assessment of the trends, current situation, and likely future of outdoor recreation demand and supply. New and different aspects of national demand, resemblances to the past, and trends in the supply of outdoor recreation opportunities, both from the private and public sectors,...

A Survey on Renewable Energy Development in Malaysia: Current Status, Problems and Prospects

OpenAIRE

Alam Syed Shah; Nor Nor Fariza Mohd; Ahmad Maisarah; Hashim Nik Hazrul Nik

2016-01-01

Energy demand in Malaysia is increasing over seven per cent a year, while forty per cent of the energy is supplied from conventional fossil fuel. However, a number of social barriers have mired the social acceptance of renewable energy among the users. This study investigates the current status of renewable energy, problems and future outlook of renewable energy in Malaysia. A total of 200 respondents were surveyed from Klang Valley in Malaysia. Majority of the respondents use energy to gener...

Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Tao; Ji, Jie; Chen, Ming-qi

2010-01-01

Reasonable estimation of hydrogen energy and other renewable energy demand of China's medium and long-term energy is of great significance for China's medium and long-term energy plan. Therefore, based on both China's future economic development and relative economic theory and system dynamics theory, this article analyzes qualitatively the internal factors and external factors of hydrogen energy demand system, and makes the state high and low two assumptions about China's medium and long-term hydrogen demand according to the different speed of China's economic development. After the system dynamic model setting up export and operation, the output shows the data changes of the total hydrogen demand and the four kinds of hydrogen demand. According to the analysis of the output, two conclusions are concluded: The secondary industry, not the tertiary industry (mainly the transportation), should be firstly satisfied by the hydrogen R and D and support of Government policy. Change of Chinese hydrogen demand scale, on basis of its economic growth, can not be effective explained through Chinese economic growth rate, and other influencing factor and mechanism should be probed deeply. (author)

What is demand response? Contributing to secure security-of-supply at the electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grenaa Jensen, Stine; Skytte, Klaus; Togeby, Mikael

2004-01-01

There is a common understanding that demand response can reduce the total costs of electricity reliability. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where high spot prices in peak periods and blackouts have recently been seen. It is not easy from the existing literature to find a common definition of demands response. Often the term demand response is used broadly without looking at the time dimension. However, it does not make sense to talk about demand response without talking about when, for how long the energy is used or saved, and at which costs. This paper surveys these subjects and set up a systematic grouping of the different characteristics of demand response. It especially looks at the time dimension. (au)

China's rising hydropower demand challenges water sector.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Junguo; Zhao, Dandan; Gerbens-Leenes, P W; Guan, Dabo

2015-07-09

Demand for hydropower is increasing, yet the water footprints (WFs) of reservoirs and hydropower, and their contributions to water scarcity, are poorly understood. Here, we calculate reservoir WFs (freshwater that evaporates from reservoirs) and hydropower WFs (the WF of hydroelectricity) in China based on data from 875 representative reservoirs (209 with power plants). In 2010, the reservoir WF totaled 27.9 × 10(9) m(3) (Gm(3)), or 22% of China's total water consumption. Ignoring the reservoir WF seriously underestimates human water appropriation. The reservoir WF associated with industrial, domestic and agricultural WFs caused water scarcity in 6 of the 10 major Chinese river basins from 2 to 12 months annually. The hydropower WF was 6.6 Gm(3) yr(-1) or 3.6 m(3) of water to produce a GJ (10(9) J) of electricity. Hydropower is a water intensive energy carrier. As a response to global climate change, the Chinese government has promoted a further increase in hydropower energy by 70% by 2020 compared to 2012. This energy policy imposes pressure on available freshwater resources and increases water scarcity. The water-energy nexus requires strategic and coordinated implementations of hydropower development among geographical regions, as well as trade-off analysis between rising energy demand and water use sustainability.

APPLIED OF IMPRESSED CURRENT CATHODIC PROTECTION DESIGN FOR FUEL PIPELINE NETWORK AT NAVAL BASE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

k. Susilo

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Indonesian Navy (TNI AL is the main component for Maritime Security and Defence. Because of that, TNI AL needs Indonesian Warship (KRI to covered Maritime area. The main requirement from KRI is fulfilled by demand. To pock of fuel demand from KRI at Naval Base, it needs a new pipeline of fuel distribution network system. The pipeline network system used for maximum lifetime must be protected from corrosion. Basically, there are five methods of corrosion control such as change to a more suitable material, modification to the environment, use of protective coating, design modification to the system or component, and the application of cathodic or anodic protection. Cathodic protection for pipeline available in two kinds, namely Sacrifice Anode and Impressed Current Cathodic Protection (ICCP. This paper makes analysis from design of Impressed Current Cathodic Protection and total current requirement in the method. This paper showed both experimental from speciment test and theoritical calculation. The result showed that design of Impressed Current Cathodic Protection on fuel distribution pipeline network system requires voltage 33,759 V(DC, protection current 6,6035 A(DC by theoritical calculation and 6,544 A(DC from pipeline specimen test, with 0,25 mpy for corrosion rate. Transformer Rectifier design needs requirements 45 V with 10 A for current. This research result can be made as literature and standardization for Indonesian Navy in designing the Impressed Current Cathodic Protection for fuel distribution pipeline network system.

Game Demands of Seven-A-Side Soccer in Young Players.

Science.gov (United States)

Barbero-Alvarez, José C; Gómez-López, Maite; Castagna, Carlo; Barbero-Alvarez, Verónica; Romero, David V; Blanchfield, Anthony W; Nakamura, Fábio Y

2017-07-01

Barbero-Alvarez, JC, Gómez-López, M, Castagna, C, Barbero-Alvarez, V, Romero, DV, Blanchfield, AW, and Nakamura, FY. Game demands of seven-a-side soccer in young players. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1771-1779, 2017-The aim of this study was to examine the activity patterns and physiological demands of 7-a-side youth soccer matches across 2 chronological age categories (U12 and U14). Twenty-two soccer players of a national youth soccer academy were investigated. Players of each age category performed 2 training matches (2 × 25 minutes) and were monitored by global positioning system and heart rate monitor units. Players of both categories covered similar total distance (5,348 ± 307 m), at similar mean heart rate values (86 ± 4% of maximum). However, the number of high-intensity runs (82.5 ± 17.4 vs. 69.7 ± 15.2) and total distance covered during sprints (264 ± 207 vs. 128 ± 74 m) were significantly (p ≤ 0.05) higher in U14 compared with U12. The results suggest a highly demanding nature of 7-a-side soccer for skilled players, with physical maturity possibly influencing the match-related high-intensity performance at these ages.

The Emergency Vehicle Routing Problem with Uncertain Demand under Sustainability Environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin Qin

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The reasonable utilization of limited resources is critical to realize the sustainable developments. In the initial 72-h crucial rescue period after the disaster, emergency supplies have always been insufficient and the demands in the affected area have always been uncertain. In order to improve timeliness, utilization and sustainability of emergency service, the allocation of the emergency supplies and the emergency vehicle routes should be determined simultaneously. Assuming the uncertain demands follow normal distribution, an optimization model for the emergency vehicle routing, by considering the insufficient supplies and the uncertain demands, is developed. The objective function is applied to minimize the total costs, including the penalty costs induced by more or less supplies than the actual demands at all demand points, as well as the constraints of the time windows and vehicle load capacity taken into account. In more details, a solution method for the model, based on the genetic algorithm, is proposed, which solves the problem in two stages. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the efficiency and validity of the proposed model and algorithm.

Optometric supply and demand in Australia: 2001-2031.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiely, Patricia M; Healy, Ernest; Horton, Peregrine; Chakman, Joseph

2008-07-01

Major influences on health workforce supply include factors such as graduate numbers, retention rates and immigration. This report presents a model of the relationship of the projected Australian optometric workforce and projected optometric service demand for the period 2001 to 2031. Two contrasting hypothetical optometric supply-side scenarios are presented. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on age and gender of people listing optometry as their major qualification in the 2001 census were projected over a 30-year period, accounting for factors such as ageing, attrition, new graduates and migration. Data were compared to the numbers of optometrists calculated as necessary to meet the demand for services of the Australian population to 2031. The projections indicated that in 2031, there would be 4,072 equivalent full-time optometrists, an excess of 6.9 per cent compared with demand and that of these 38 per cent would be female. Application of a 'high' growth scenario, based on increases in the proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours by females and graduate and immigrant numbers, resulted in a projected oversupply of up to 30 per cent. Use of a 'low' growth scenario, based on decreases in the proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, graduate and immigrant numbers, resulted in a projected undersupply of at least 21.5 per cent. Projected numbers of optometrists using current weightings for mortality, attrition, proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, immigration and new graduates indicate that in 2031, there will be adequate numbers of optometrists to meet the demand for services, if service utilisation is maintained at current levels or increased slightly. The adequacy of projected numbers varies considerably if alterations are made to the weighting factors using 'high' and 'low' growth scenarios.

Forecasting of the incorporated energy in the final demand of the brazilian economy in 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cunha, Marcelo Pereira da; Pereira, Jose Tomaz Vieira

2008-01-01

This work presents the application of a methodology for evaluation of the primary energy incorporated by the productive sectors of a economy at the final demand - using of a income-product mode. A methodology is applied in the evaluation of the energy incorporated to 25 sectors of the brazilian economy, by using the the data available in the national counts (IBGE - 2007), and the National Energy Balance for the year 2005 (EPE - 2007). For each sector, the results are presented in terms of the primary energy incorporated (in petroleum equivalent tons per R$ 1,000), of the participation of renewable energy, and the total primary energy distribution for the offered products by the 25 sectors to be consumption by the final demand. Among some interesting results in terms of final demand, it is highlighted the presence of 96.5% of renewable primary energy for the sector of alcohol, and 5.3% for the sector of petroleum refining products sector. In terms of the total energy distribution,the petroleum refining and coke sector were the most significant contribution to the incorporation of primary energy, presenting 16.1% of the total ahead of foods and beverages which presents 12.1%. Related to the final demand components, families consumption was responsible by the 57.7% of the total, the exports with 25.3%, the gross capital formation (investments and stock variations) with 11.3%, and the govern consumption wit 5.7%

A Collaborative Strategy for a Three Echelon Supply Chain with Ramp Type Demand, Deterioration and Inflation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Narayan Singh

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A supply chain system has been investigated in which a single manufacturer procures raw materials from a single supplier, processes them to produce finished products, and then delivers the products to a single retailer. The customer's demand rate is assumed to be time-sensitive in nature (ramp type that allows two-phase variation in the demand and production rate. Our adoption of ramp type demand reflects a real market demand for a newly launched product. Shortages are allowed with partial backlogging of demand (only for the retailer, i.e. the rest represent lost sales. The effects of inflation of the cost parameters and deterioration are also considered separately. We show that the total cost function is convex. Using this convexity, a simple algorithm is presented to determine the optimal order quantity and optimal cycle time for the total cost function. The results are discussed with numerical examples and particular cases of the model discussed briefly. A sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to the parameters of the system is carried out. (original abstract

PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Yu. Sulimov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

Research on electricity market operation mechanism and its benefit of demand side participation

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shuai; Yan, Xu; Qin, Li-juan; Lin, Xi-qiao; Zeng, Bo

2017-08-01

Demand response plays an important role in maintaining the economic stability of the system, and has the characteristics of high efficiency, low cost, fast response, good environmental benefits and so on. Demand side resource is an important part of electricity market. The research of demand side resources in our country is still in the initial stage, but the opening of the electricity sales side provides a broad prospect for the development of electricity market. This paper summarizes the main types of demand side resources in our country, analyzes the economic principle of demand response from the micro perspective, puts forward some suggestions on the operation mechanism of China’s demand side resources participating in the electricity market under the condition of electricity sales side opening, analyzes the current situation of pricing in the electricity wholesale market and sets up the pricing strategy of the centralized wholesale market with the demand side power supply participating in quotation, which makes the social and economic benefits reach the maximum.

Impact of future price increase on ordering policies for deteriorating items under quadratic demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nita H. Shah

2016-06-01

Full Text Available When a supplier announces a price increase at a certain time in the future, for each retailer it is important to choose whether to purchase supplementary stock to take benefit of the current lower price or procure at a new price. This article focuses on the possible effects of price increase on a retailer’s replenishment strategy for constant deterioration of items. Here, quadratic demand is debated; which is appropriate for the products for which demand increases initially and subsequently it starts to decrease with the new version of the substitute. We discuss two scenarios in this study: (I when the special order time coincides with the retailer’s replenishment time and (II when the special order time falls during the retailer’s sales period. We determine an optimal ordering policy for each case by maximizing total cost savings between special and regular orders during the depletion time of the special order quantity. Scenarios are established and illustrated with numerical examples. Through, sensitivity analysis important inventory parameters are classified. Graphical results, in two and three dimensions, are exhibited with supervisory decision.

Neoclassical current effects in neutral-beam-heated tokamak discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogan, J.T.

1981-01-01

There is a long-standing prediction from neoclassical theory that strong contributions to the toroidal current should be driven by friction between trapped and passing particles when βsub(pol) exceeds root (R/a) in a tokamak. A number of neutral-beam heating experiments can now produce such parameters, and it is of interest to calculate the behaviour which should occur in this regime to determine the feasibility of using such a 'bootstrap' current as a steady-state tokamak current source. It is found that the neoclassical current should be large enough to reverse the external loop voltage for typical experimental parameters (ISX-B, in particular) in cases where the total current is fixed and to produce a detectable excess of total current above the pre-programmed (demand) value in cases where the loop voltage is regulated. Other manifestations of such a current should be either: a sharp rise in the central q-value (producing a cessation of internal m=1 and m=2 MHD activity), with an enhancement by two orders of magnitude of ion thermal conductivity (due to the formation of a hollow current density profile and a consequent drop in local values of the poloidal magnetic field in the central plasma region), or an enhanced tendency for disruption (arising from magnetic reconnection in hollow-profile equilibria). Since these gross manifestations are absent in a wide range of experiments on the Impurity Study Experiment (ISX-B), as reported earlier, the conclusion is that the neoclassical current, if present, can have a value no larger than 25% of its theoretically calculated value. Since the neoclassical particle (Ware) pinch is strongly related to the neoclassical current in the theory (Onsager reciprocity), the existence of the particle pinch is thus called into question. (author)

Demand Potential for Goat Meat in Southern States: Empirical Evidence from a Multi-State Goat Meat Consumer Survey

OpenAIRE

Nelson, Mack C.; Liu, Xuanli

2005-01-01

A survey conducted in 11 Southeastern states elicits consumers' demand and preferences for various goat meat products. The data permit examination of goat meat demand of ethnic populations and the diversity among the states surveyed. The study uses five econometric models to examine the current demand, potential demand, and demand related to season and occasions on the goat meat market. Our analysis suggests that there exist a substantial demand for goat meat and the potential increase in the...

Controllable deterioration rate for time-dependent demand and time-varying holding cost

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mishra Vinod Kumar

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an inventory model for non-instantaneous deteriorating items under the consideration of the facts: deterioration rate can be controlled by using the preservation technology (PT during deteriorating period, and holding cost and demand rate both are linear function of time, which was treated as constant in most of the deteriorating inventory models. So in this paper, we developed a deterministic inventory model for non-instantaneous deteriorating items in which both demand rate and holding cost are a linear function of time, deterioration rate is constant, backlogging rate is variable and depend on the length of the next replenishment, shortages are allowed and partially backlogged. The model is solved analytically by minimizing the total cost of the inventory system. The model can be applied to optimizing the total inventory cost of non-instantaneous deteriorating items inventory for the business enterprises, where the preservation technology is used to control the deterioration rate, and demand & holding cost both are a linear function of time.

A simulation based approach to optimize inventory replenishment with RAND algorithm: An extended study of corrected demand using Holt's method for textile industry

Science.gov (United States)

Morshed, Mohammad Sarwar; Kamal, Mostafa Mashnoon; Khan, Somaiya Islam

2016-07-01

Inventory has been a major concern in supply chain and numerous researches have been done lately on inventory control which brought forth a number of methods that efficiently manage inventory and related overheads by reducing cost of replenishment. This research is aimed towards providing a better replenishment policy in case of multi-product, single supplier situations for chemical raw materials of textile industries in Bangladesh. It is assumed that industries currently pursue individual replenishment system. The purpose is to find out the optimum ideal cycle time and individual replenishment cycle time of each product for replenishment that will cause lowest annual holding and ordering cost, and also find the optimum ordering quantity. In this paper indirect grouping strategy has been used. It is suggested that indirect grouping Strategy outperforms direct grouping strategy when major cost is high. An algorithm by Kaspi and Rosenblatt (1991) called RAND is exercised for its simplicity and ease of application. RAND provides an ideal cycle time (T) for replenishment and integer multiplier (ki) for individual items. Thus the replenishment cycle time for each product is found as T×ki. Firstly, based on data, a comparison between currently prevailing (individual) process and RAND is provided that uses the actual demands which presents 49% improvement in total cost of replenishment. Secondly, discrepancies in demand is corrected by using Holt's method. However, demands can only be forecasted one or two months into the future because of the demand pattern of the industry under consideration. Evidently, application of RAND with corrected demand display even greater improvement. The results of this study demonstrates that cost of replenishment can be significantly reduced by applying RAND algorithm and exponential smoothing models.

Load Reduction, Demand Response and Energy Efficient Technologies and Strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boyd, Paul A.; Parker, Graham B.; Hatley, Darrel D.

2008-11-19

The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked by the DOE Office of Electricity (OE) to recommend load reduction and grid integration strategies, and identify additional demand response (energy efficiency/conservation opportunities) and strategies at the Forest City Housing (FCH) redevelopment at Pearl Harbor and the Marine Corps Base Hawaii (MCBH) at Kaneohe Bay. The goal was to provide FCH staff a path forward to manage their electricity load and thus reduce costs at these FCH family housing developments. The initial focus of the work was at the MCBH given the MCBH has a demand-ratchet tariff, relatively high demand (~18 MW) and a commensurate high blended electricity rate (26 cents/kWh). The peak demand for MCBH occurs in July-August. And, on average, family housing at MCBH contributes ~36% to the MCBH total energy consumption. Thus, a significant load reduction in family housing can have a considerable impact on the overall site load. Based on a site visit to the MCBH and meetings with MCBH installation, FCH, and Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) staff, recommended actions (including a "smart grid" recommendation) that can be undertaken by FCH to manage and reduce peak-demand in family housing are made. Recommendations are also made to reduce overall energy consumption, and thus reduce demand in FCH family housing.

Demand and supply of doctors and dentists in Bahrain, 1998-2005.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, A A; Fateha, B; Benjamin, S

2000-01-01

We examined the supply and demand of medical doctors and dentists in Bahrain. Demand for physicians and dentists was based on the objective of having a physician-to-population ratio of 1:650, and a dentist-to-population ratio of 1:5000. Analysis of the current workforce and projected graduates in the period 1998-2005 indicated that the supply of Bahraini medical doctors and dentists until the year 2005 will not be sufficient to meet the projected demand in these categories. By the year 2005, Bahraini doctors and dentists will provide 82.5% and 75.9% of medical and dental demands respectively. The remaining 17.2% of physicians and 24.1% of dentists will have to be recruited from abroad. Thus, the prospect of oversupply of Bahrainis among these categories until the year 2005 is highly unlikely.

Supply Chain Contracts with Multiple Retailers in a Fuzzy Demand Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shengju Sang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates supply chain contracts with a supplier and multiple competing retailers in a fuzzy demand environment. The market demand is considered as a positive triangular fuzzy number. The models of centralized decision, return contract, and revenue-sharing contract are built by the method of fuzzy cut sets theory, and their optimal policies are also proposed. Finally, an example is given to illustrate and validate the models and conclusions. It is shown that the optimal total order quantity of the retailers fluctuates at the center of the fuzzy demand. With the rise of the number of retailers, the optimal order quantity and the fuzzy expected profit for each retailer will decrease, and the fuzzy expected profit for supplier will increase.

Current Role of Computer Navigation in Total Knee Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Christopher W; Jerabek, Seth A

2018-01-31

Computer-assisted surgical (CAS) navigation has been developed with the aim of improving the accuracy and precision of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) component positioning and therefore overall limb alignment. The historical goal of knee arthroplasty has been to restore the mechanical alignment of the lower limb by aligning the femoral and tibial components perpendicular to the mechanical axis of the femur and tibia. Despite over 4 decades of TKA component development and nearly 2 decades of interest in CAS, the fundamental question remains; does the alignment goal and/or the method of achieving that goal affect the outcome of the TKA in terms of patient-reported outcome measures and/or overall survivorship? The quest for reliable and reproducible achievement of the intraoperative alignment goal has been the primary motivator for the introduction, development, and refinement of CAS navigation. Numerous proprietary systems now exist, and rapid technological advancements in computer processing power are stimulating further development of robotic surgical systems. Three categories of CAS can be defined: image-based large-console navigation; imageless large-console navigation, and more recently, accelerometer-based handheld navigation systems have been developed. A review of the current literature demonstrates that there are enough well-designed studies to conclude that both large-console CAS and handheld navigation systems improve the accuracy and precision of component alignment in TKA. However, missing from the evidence base, other than the subgroup analysis provided by the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry, are any conclusive demonstrations of a clinical superiority in terms of improved patient-reported outcome measures and/or decreased cumulative revision rates in the long term. Few authors would argue that accuracy of alignment is a goal to ignore; therefore, in the absence of clinical evidence, many of the arguments against

The role of husband's and wife's economic activity status in the demand for children.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Y

1987-04-01

Data from Hong Kong were used to examine how the demand for children is affected by the economic returns to different types of market activities. The specific data used was a 1% sample of the 1976 "Hong Kong By-Census of Population." Only women under 50 who were currently married and living with their husbands were included. The households were restricted to land-based and non-farm families with economically active husbands. There were a total of 4128 families in the sample; in 3768 families the wife had experienced at least 1 birth. A simple 1-period model of household production and fertility demand is outlined. Emphasis was on 2 aspects of the demand for children in households who choose to work in the informal sector: children are more readily employed in a family business; and wife's work in a family business or in a wage employment at home is more compatible with childcare activities. Both effects imply that holding constant other characteristics, a higher desired stock of children will be demanded. As expected, an increase in wife's predicted log earnings in home work had a negative effect on the demand for children. The effect was almost always significant. An increase in wife's productivity in the family business, as proxied by her predicted log earnings in the family business, increased the demand for children significantly. This usually is interpreted to be a result of entering a market activity which is compatible with childcare. Another possible explanation is that the price of children is lowered because if children work in the family business then their productive contributions subsidize their parents' consumption. Yet, without direct measures or proxies for these effects, it is not possible to distinguish between them. An increase in husband's predicted log earnings in wage employment had a significant negative effect on demand for children. This can be interpreted in 2 ways: if an interior solution exists for husband's allocation of time, then a

Measurement of the #betta#sub(μ) and anti #betta#sub(μ)-nucleon charged current total cross sections, and the ratio of #betta#sub(μ) neutron to #betta#sub(μ) proton charged current total cross-section

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allasia, D.; Bisi, V.; Gamba, D.; Marzari-Chiesa, A.; Ramello, L.; Riccati, L.; Romero, A.; Bobisut, F.; Calimani, E.; Ciampolillo, S.; Huzita, H.; Loreti, M.; Sconza, A.; Bolognese, T.; Faccini-Turluer, M.L.; Louedec, C.; Mosca, L.; Vignaud, D.; Bonarelli, R.; Capiluppi, P.; Derkaoui, J.; Giacomelli, G.; Mandrioli, G.; Rossi, A.M.; Serra-Lugaresi, P.; Frodesen, A.G.; Halsteinslid, A.; Hornaes, A.

1983-04-01

This report contains an investigation performed by the Amsterdam-Bergen-Bologna-Padova-Pisa-Saclay-Torino collaboration. The total #betta#sub(μ)- and anti #betta#sub(μ)-nucleon charged current cross sections have been measured in BEBC filled with deuterium and exposed to the wide band neutrino and antineutrino beams at the CERN-SPS. Assuming a linear energy dependence for the cross sections, sigma = a Esub((anti #betta#)), the authors obtained the coefficients asub(#betta#N) = 0.60 +- 0.04 and asub(anti #betta#N) = 0.30 +- 0.02 (in units of 10 - 38 cm 2 /GeV), where the quoted error is mainly systematic. The ratio of the cross sections is sigmasub(anti #betta#N)/sigmasub(#betta#N) = 0.50 +- 0.03. They also determined the ratio of the charged current cross section for neutrino interactions on neutrons and protons R = sigmasub(#betta#n)/sigmasub(#betta#p) = 2.10 +- 0.08 (stat.) +- 0.22 (syst.). The dependence of R on the variables x, y and Esub(#betta#) is discussed. (Auth.)

An Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System for Mussels in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Thong Tien

2012-01-01

for farmed mussels from Spain, France, Italy, and the Netherlands are inflexible, while demand for Denmark's wild stock mussels is flexible. Dutch mussels are deemed a luxury food, while preferences for mussels from other countries appear independent of the level of total expenditure (i.e., homothetic...

Electricity demand forecasting techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gnanalingam, K.

1994-01-01

Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

Evaluating demand side measures in simulation models for the power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

2011-01-01

Increased energy efficiency is one of the pillars for reducing CO 2 emissions. However, in models for the electricity market like unit commitment and dispatch models, increased efficiency of demand results in a paradoxical apparent reduction of the total economic surplus. The reason is that these are partial models for the electricity market, which do not take into account the effect of the changes in other markets. This paper shows how the calculation of the consumer surplus in the electricity market should be corrected to take into account the effect in other markets. In different cases we study shifts in the demand curve that are caused by increased energy efficiency, reduced cost for substitutes to electricity and real-time monitoring of demand, and we derive the necessary correction. The correction can easily be included in existing simulation models, and makes it possible to assess the effect of changes in demand on economic surplus. (author)

Pengembangan Model Economic Production Quantity (EPQ dengan Sinkronisasi Demand Kontinu dan Diskrit Secara Simultan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nurike Oktavia

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The most popular inventory model to determine production lot size is Economic Production Quantity (EPQ. It shows enterprise how to minimize total production cost by reducing inventory cost. But, three main parameters in EPQ which are demand, machine set up cost, and holding cost, are not suitable to solve issues nowadays. When an enterprise has two types of demand, continue and discrete demand, the basic EPQ would be no longer useful. Demand continues comes from a customer who wants their needs to be fulfilled every time per unit time, while the fulfillment of demand discrete is at a fixed interval of time. A literature review is done by writers to observe other formulation of EPQ model. As there is no other research can be found which adopt this topic, this study tries to develop EPQ model considering two types of demand simultaneously.

A critical review of the Job demands-Resources model: Implications for improving work and health

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaufeli, W.B.; Taris, T.W.

2014-01-01

The Job Demands-Resources model (JD-R model) became highly popular among researchers. The current version of the model proposes that high job demands lead to strain and health impairment (the health impairment process), and that high resources lead to increased motivation and higher productivity

Development of a “Current Energy Mix Scenario” and a “Electricity as Main Energy Source Scenario” for electricity demand up to 2100

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mário J. S. Brito

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In this work, we develop a model to forecast world electricity production up to 2100. We analyze historical data for electricity production, population and GDP per Capita for the period 1900–2008. We show that electricity production follows general trends. First, there is an electricity intensity target of 0.20-0.25 kWh per unit of GDP (US$2012 as economies mature, except in countries traditionally relying heavily on renewable electricity (hydroelectricity, for whom this target ranges between 0.50 to 0.80 kWh per unit GDP. Also, countries that belong to the same region tend to follow the evolution of electricity production and GDP/Capita of a regional “modelcountry”. Equations that describe the behavior of these model countries are used to forecast electricity production per capita up to 2100 under a low and a high scenario for the evolution of GDP per Capita. For electricity production two main scenarios were set: “Current Energy MixScenario” and “Electricity as Main Energy Source Scenario”, with two additional sub scenarios considering slightly different electric intensities. Forecasts up to 2100 yield a demand forelectricity production 3.5 to 5 times higher than the current production for the “Current EnergyMix Scenario” and about 9 to 14 times for the “Electricity as Main Energy Source Scenario”. Forecasts for the “Current Energy Mix Scenario” matched well with forecasts from IEA/EIA (International Energy Agency/ Energy Information Administration while the forecasts for the“Electricity as the Main Energy Source Scenario” are much higher than current predictions.

An interim report on the outlook of long-term energy supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

An interim report was presented by the supply/demand committee in Over-all Energy Council concerning the energy demand and supply outlook for fiscal 1990 as compared with fiscal 1980. The background for deciding the outlook of energy supply and demand and basic ideas for energy policy, and the outlook for energy supply and demand are outlined. The outlook was prepared, assuming yearly economic growth of about 5 % in 1980s and the utmost efforts by people in energy situation. The energy situation both domestic and abroad is largely changing, including energy saving efforts and petroleum price. The aggregate energy demand for fiscal 1990 was put at about 590 million kl in terms of crude oil. Then, concerning nuclear power generation, the power supply by nuclear energy in fiscal 1990 was estimated at 46 million kw accounting for 11.3 % of the total power supply. (Mori, K.)

A Survey on the Usage and Demand of Medical Radioisotope and Radiopharmaceuticals in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muhammad Fakhrurazi Ahmad Fadzil; Siti Selina Abdul Hamid; Siti Najila Mohd Janib; Azahari Kasbollah; Syed Asraf Fahlawi Wafa

2015-01-01

Medical radioisotope is a small quantity of radioactive substance used in safe, cost effective, for the purpose of diagnostic and therapy of various diseases. In Malaysia, the emerging of new nuclear medicine centers or institutions in both government and private sectors rose abruptly for the past few years. Currently, there are no data available on the usage and demand of medical radioisotope or radiopharmaceuticals. Understanding the usage trending and demand of radiopharmaceuticals and medical radioisotope is essential when related to technology changes in order to meet the market size of these radiopharmaceuticals. Survey result found out that the highest demand and the highest usage among all radioisotopes are Technetium-99m and Radioiodine isotopes such as the Iodine-1331, Iodine131 MIBG, Iodine-123 and Iodine-123 MIBG. Currently, most of the medical isotopes and radiopharmaceuticals are currently imported. Technetium-99m is the backbone of nuclear medicine whereby more than 80 % of Nuclear Medicine services utilize this radioisotope. Technetium-99m supply chain is unstable globally and in coming future, two main reactors (Canada and Holland) that produces 60 % of world Molybdenum-99 will shut down the operation and supply of Molybdenum-99 will be disrupted. As for radioiodine services, currently, Iodine-123 can't be obtained in Malaysia and neighboring countries due to its short half-life, Iodine-123 is useful in diagnostic of thyroid related diseases. As for PET services, the highest demands are F-18 FDG and Gallium-68 Generator for the moment. However the survey data still did not include most of the PET centers in the Klang Valley, northern area (Penang) and the new upcoming PET center in Southern Region (Malacca and Johor). It is important for Malaysia to self-produced medical radioisotope and radiopharmaceuticals to meet the market and local demand of these medical isotopes. (author)

Energy demand and life quality in America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spitalnik, J.

2004-01-01

Being considered an intermediate growth among projections of technological development expressive or of development restricted by ecological considerations, in the next 50 years, the demand of primary energy in the countries of the American continent arrived to value sufficiently high to allow to consent at levels of quality of life but next to those enjoyed at the moment in developed countries. There will be an expansion substantial of electric power demand that rots to require the installation, in countries of Latin America and Caribbean, of power plants with total capacity of the order of 400 GW until half-filled of century. The resource to the nuclear source was accentuated starting from the decade of 2020 and an enormous challenge for the governments of the region it will be the one of driving the construction of about 2.300 MW/year nuclear power plants between 2020 and 2050. (Author)

Demand-driven water withdrawals by Chinese industry: a multi-regional input-output analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z. M.; Zeng, L.; Qiao, H.; Chen, B.

2016-03-01

With ever increasing water demands and the continuous intensification of water scarcity arising from China's industrialization, the country is struggling to harmonize its industrial development and water supply. This paper presents a systems analysis of water withdrawals by Chinese industry and investigates demand-driven industrial water uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade based on a multi-regional input-output model. In 2007, the Electric Power, Steam, and Hot Water Production and Supply sector ranks first in direct industrial water withdrawal (DWW), and Construction has the largest embodied industrial water use (EWU). Investment, consumption, and exports contribute to 34.6%, 33.3%, and 30.6% of the national total EWU, respectively. Specifically, 58.0%, 51.1%, 48.6%, 43.3%, and 37.5% of the regional EWUs respectively in Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian are attributed to international exports. The total interregional import/export of embodied water is equivalent to about 40% of the national total DWW, of which 55.5% is associated with the DWWs of Electric Power, Steam, and Hot Water Production and Supply. Jiangsu is the biggest interregional exporter and deficit receiver of embodied water, in contrast to Guangdong as the biggest interregional importer and surplus receiver. Without implementing effective water-saving measures and adjusting industrial structures, the regional imbalance between water availability and water demand tends to intensify considering the water impact of domestic trade of industrial products. Steps taken to improve water use efficiency in production, and to enhance embodied water saving in consumption are both of great significance for supporting China's water policies.

Hub location proplems under polyhedral demand uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Meraklı, Merve

2015-01-01

Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 69-74). Thesis (M.S.): Bilkent University, Department of Industrial Engineering, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2015. Hubs are points of consolidation and transshipment in many-to-many distribution systems that bene t from economies of scale. In hub location problems, the aim is to locate hub facilities such that each pairwise demand is satis ed and the total cost is minimized. The problem...

Enhancement of building operations: A successful approach towards national electrical demand management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Mulla, A.; Maheshwari, G.P.; Al-Nakib, D.; ElSherbini, A.; Alghimlas, F.; Al-Taqi, H.; Al-Hadban, Y.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Enhanced building operations were applied for eight large government buildings in Kuwait. • The enhanced building operations led to demand savings of 8.90 MW during the national peak hour. • Nationwide guidelines were developed for implementing the enhanced operations in similar government buildings in Kuwait. • The peak electrical demand reduction is likely to be 488 MW by the year 2030. - Abstract: An approach for managing electrical demand through enhanced building operations in hot climates is evaluated and demonstrated in this paper. The approach focuses on implementing enhanced operations in government buildings, since they are easier to implement and administer. These enhanced operations included early reduction of cooling supply before the end of the occupancy period, improved time-of-day control after occupancy period and reduced lighting. A total of eight government buildings with different construction and system characteristics were selected for implementing these enhanced operations. These buildings have a total air-conditioning area of 4.39 × 10 5 m 2 and a combined peak electrical demand of 29.3 MW. The enhanced operations resulted in demand savings of 8.90 MW during the national peak hour. Temperatures build up inside the buildings were monitored and found to be within acceptable ranges. Guidelines for nationwide implementation in similar buildings were developed based on the results of this work. Implementation is estimated to reduce demand by 488 MW by the year 2030, which amounts to capital savings of $585 million. These projected values would be important to adopt energy efficient policies for the country. Additional reductions in energy and fuel consumption are added benefits, which would result in large financial and environmental savings to the country. Moreover, the enhanced building operations would be an important tool to avoid any blackouts by properly reducing the peak electrical demand as well as operating the

Review of US utility demand-side bidding programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldman, C.A.; Kito, M.S.

1995-01-01

In this study, we review utility experiences with demand-side management (DSM) bidding programs. Since 1987, about 35 US utilities have signed long-term contracts with developers of DSM resources (ie energy service companies and customers) to provide a quantity of demand and energy savings at specified prices. Total resource costs range between 5.4 and 8 cents/kWh for DSM bidding programs where complete information on program costs is available. Almost all DSM bidding programs have been cost-effective compared with the utility's own supply-side alternatives, although there is substantial disagreement regarding the value of these programs compared with the utility's own DSM programs. In most bidding programs, payments to bidders account for between 70 and 90% of total program costs. Variation in winning bid prices is influenced primarily by DSM bid ceiling prices, differences in the mix of measures and markets targeted by developers, and the degree of performance risk borne by the DSM developer. Bids targeting residential customers averaged 6.2 cents/kWh compared with about 5.0 cents/kWh for commercial/industrial bids. We also compared the costs of acquiring lighting savings in DSM bidding contracts with a sample of 20 utility sponsored commercial/industrial lighting programs. We found that, on average total resource costs were slightly higher in bidding programs (6.1 vs 5.6 cents/kWh), although ratepayers bear significantly less performance risk in bidding programs compared with traditional utility-sponsored DSM programs. (author)

Optimal electricity dispatch on isolated mini-grids using a demand response strategy for thermal storage backup with genetic algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neves, Diana; Silva, Carlos A.

2015-01-01

The present study uses the DHW (domestic hot water) electric backup from solar thermal systems to optimize the total electricity dispatch of an isolated mini-grid. The proposed approach estimates the hourly DHW load, and proposes and simulates different DR (demand response) strategies, from the supply side, to minimize the dispatch costs of an energy system. The case study consists on optimizing the electricity load, in a representative day with low solar radiation, in Corvo Island, Azores. The DHW backup is induced by three different demand patterns. The study compares different DR strategies: backup at demand (no strategy), pre-scheduled backup using two different imposed schedules, a strategy based on linear programming, and finally two strategies using genetic algorithms, with different formulations for DHW backup – one that assigns number of systems and another that assigns energy demand. It is concluded that pre-determined DR strategies may increase the generation costs, but DR strategies based on optimization algorithms are able to decrease generation costs. In particular, linear programming is the strategy that presents the lowest increase on dispatch costs, but the strategy based on genetic algorithms is the one that best minimizes both daily operation costs and total energy demand, of the system. - Highlights: • Integrated hourly model of DHW electric impact and electricity dispatch of isolated grid. • Proposal and comparison of different DR (demand response) strategies for DHW backup. • LP strategy presents 12% increase on total electric load, plus 5% on dispatch costs. • GA strategy presents 7% increase on total electric load, plus 8% on dispatch costs

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, A. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Hutson, N. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Lamm, C. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Pei, Y. L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Winebrake, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.

History of demand side management and classification of demand response control schemes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lampropoulos, I.; Kling, W.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.; Berg, van den J.

2013-01-01

The scope of this paper is to provide a review on the topic of demand side management. A historical overview provides a critical insight to applied cases, while the discovery of new evidence calls for reconsideration of the design of demand response control schemes. The developments at the demand

Multivariable polynomial fitting of controlled single-phase nonlinear load of input current total harmonic distortion

Science.gov (United States)

Sikora, Roman; Markiewicz, Przemysław; Pabjańczyk, Wiesława

2018-04-01

The power systems usually include a number of nonlinear receivers. Nonlinear receivers are the source of disturbances generated to the power system in the form of higher harmonics. The level of these disturbances describes the total harmonic distortion coefficient THD. Its value depends on many factors. One of them are the deformation and change in RMS value of supply voltage. A modern LED luminaire is a nonlinear receiver as well. The paper presents the results of the analysis of the influence of change in RMS value of supply voltage and the level of dimming of the tested luminaire on the value of the current THD. The analysis was made using a mathematical model based on multivariable polynomial fitting.

Preliminary study of low carbon power demand and supply toward 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogimoto, Kazuhiko; Ikeda, Yuichi; Kataoka, Kazuto; Ikegami, Takashi; Akai, Makoto

2012-01-01

It takes tens of years to realize the sustainable economy through reformation of energy infrastructure. The share of the electric power in the total energy increases, as the energy efficiency technologies of buildings and transportation and renewable energy technologies are of power technologies. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to deploy the long-term power demand-supply analysis and the long-term power system augmentation analysis so that the augmentation should be optimized and robust under various uncertainties so as to fulfill the criteria of security, economy and environmental. This paper, utilizing a long-range power system demand and supply model, ESPRIT, evaluates several scenarios with several options of nuclear. RE deployment, and thermal generation reinforcement based on the indicators such as self-sufficiency, economy, and environment to pursue the best demand-supply mix. (author)

Considering supply and demand of electric energy in life cycle assessments - a review of current methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehberger, M.; Hiete, M.

2015-01-01

A stable power grid requires a balance between electricity supply and demand. To compensate for changes in the demand the network operator puts on or takes off power plants from the net. Peak load plants operate only at times of high electricity demand. As levels for air pollutants emissions are typically lower for peak load plants for reasons of cost-effectiveness, one could argue that a unit of electric energy consumed during peak load has always been associated with a higher environmental impact than at other times. Furthermore, renewable energy technologies, smart approaches for improving the matching between electricity consumption and supply and new products such as electric vehicles or net zero emission buildings gain in importance. In life cycle assessment (LCA) environmental impacts associated with the production and possibly transmission of electricity are most often assessed based on temporally averaged national electricity mixes as electricity flows cannot be traced back to their origin. Neither fluctuations in the supply structure nor the composition of energy supply at a certain moment or regional differences are accounted for. A literature review of approaches for handling electricity in LCA is carried out to compare strengths and weaknesses of the approaches. A better understanding and knowledge about the source of electricity at a given time and place might be valuable information for further reducing environmental impacts, e.g. by shifting electricity consumption to times with ample supply of renewables. Integrating such information into LCA will allow a fairer assessment of a variety of new products which accept a lower energy efficiency to achieve a better integration of renewables into the grid. (authors)

The impact of task demand on visual word recognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, J; Zevin, J

2014-07-11

The left occipitotemporal cortex has been found sensitive to the hierarchy of increasingly complex features in visually presented words, from individual letters to bigrams and morphemes. However, whether this sensitivity is a stable property of the brain regions engaged by word recognition is still unclear. To address the issue, the current study investigated whether different task demands modify this sensitivity. Participants viewed real English words and stimuli with hierarchical word-likeness while performing a lexical decision task (i.e., to decide whether each presented stimulus is a real word) and a symbol detection task. General linear model and independent component analysis indicated strong activation in the fronto-parietal and temporal regions during the two tasks. Furthermore, the bilateral inferior frontal gyrus and insula showed significant interaction effects between task demand and stimulus type in the pseudoword condition. The occipitotemporal cortex showed strong main effects for task demand and stimulus type, but no sensitivity to the hierarchical word-likeness was found. These results suggest that different task demands on semantic, phonological and orthographic processes can influence the involvement of the relevant regions during visual word recognition. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Definition of Distribution Network Tariffs Considering Distribution Generation and Demand Response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soares, Tiago; Faria, Pedro; Vale, Zita

2014-01-01

The use of distribution networks in the current scenario of high penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) is a problem of great importance. In the competitive environment of electricity markets and smart grids, Demand Response (DR) is also gaining notable impact with several benefits for the wh......The use of distribution networks in the current scenario of high penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) is a problem of great importance. In the competitive environment of electricity markets and smart grids, Demand Response (DR) is also gaining notable impact with several benefits...... the determination of topological distribution factors, and consequent application of the MW-mile method. The application of the proposed tariffs definition methodology is illustrated in a distribution network with 33 buses, 66 DG units, and 32 consumers with DR capacity...

Road infrastructure and demand induction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Hovgesen, Henrik Harder; Lahrmann, Harry

2006-01-01

a long screenline is used to measure the development in aggregate demand in selected corridors. The paper analyses demand induction by establishing time series of aggregate demand that is compared with the national traffic index. Significant trend breaks in the association between aggregate demand...... in the corridors and the national index, following the opening of motorways or bridges, indicates demand induction by infrastructure expansion in a number of instances. Lack of significant trend breaks following opening year is found in peripheral areas where major population centres are missing. This indicates...... the necessity of some latent demand within suitable travel range for new infrastructure elements to produce significant amounts of induced demand. Estimates of demand induction as a percentage of the realised demand five years after opening are between 10% and 67% for new motorway sections depending...

A Nondominated Genetic Algorithm Procedure for Multiobjective Discrete Network Design under Demand Uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Changzhi, Bian

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the multiobjective discrete network design problem under demand uncertainty. The OD travel demands are supposed to be random variables with the given probability distribution. The problem is formulated as a bilevel stochastic optimization model where the decision maker’s objective is to minimize the construction cost, the expectation, and the standard deviation of total travel time simultaneously and the user’s route choice is described using user equilibrium model on the...

The role of nuclear power in meeting future energy demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuchs, K.

1977-01-01

Future energy demands and possibilities of meeting them are outlined. The current status and future developments of nuclear energetics all over the world and in the CMEA member states are discussed considering reactor safety, fission product releases, and thermal pollution of the environment

Use of artificial neural networks for transport energy demand modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murat, Yetis Sazi; Ceylan, Halim

2006-01-01

The paper illustrates an artificial neural network (ANN) approach based on supervised neural networks for the transport energy demand forecasting using socio-economic and transport related indicators. The ANN transport energy demand model is developed. The actual forecast is obtained using a feed forward neural network, trained with back propagation algorithm. In order to investigate the influence of socio-economic indicators on the transport energy demand, the ANN is analyzed based on gross national product (GNP), population and the total annual average veh-km along with historical energy data available from 1970 to 2001. Comparing model predictions with energy data in testing period performs the model validation. The projections are made with two scenarios. It is obtained that the ANN reflects the fluctuation in historical data for both dependent and independent variables. The results obtained bear out the suitability of the adopted methodology for the transport energy-forecasting problem

Total kinetic energy in four global eddying ocean circulation models and over 5000 current meter records

KAUST Repository

Scott, Robert B.

2010-01-01

We compare the total kinetic energy (TKE) in four global eddying ocean circulation simulations with a global dataset of over 5000, quality controlled, moored current meter records. At individual mooring sites, there was considerable scatter between models and observations that was greater than estimated statistical uncertainty. Averaging over all current meter records in various depth ranges, all four models had mean TKE within a factor of two of observations above 3500. m, and within a factor of three below 3500. m. With the exception of observations between 20 and 100. m, the models tended to straddle the observations. However, individual models had clear biases. The free running (no data assimilation) model biases were largest below 2000. m. Idealized simulations revealed that the parameterized bottom boundary layer tidal currents were not likely the source of the problem, but that reducing quadratic bottom drag coefficient may improve the fit with deep observations. Data assimilation clearly improved the model-observation comparison, especially below 2000. m, despite assimilated data existing mostly above this depth and only south of 47°N. Different diagnostics revealed different aspects of the comparison, though in general the models appeared to be in an eddying-regime with TKE that compared reasonably well with observations. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

The Role of Demand Resources In Regional Transmission Expansion Planning and Reliable Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirby, Brendan J [ORNL

2006-07-01

Investigating the role of demand resources in regional transmission planning has provided mixed results. On one hand there are only a few projects where demand response has been used as an explicit alternative to transmission enhancement. On the other hand there is a fair amount of demand response in the form of energy efficiency, peak reduction, emergency load shedding, and (recently) demand providing ancillary services. All of this demand response reduces the need for transmission enhancements. Demand response capability is typically (but not always) factored into transmission planning as a reduction in the load which must be served. In that sense demand response is utilized as an alternative to transmission expansion. Much more demand response is used (involuntarily) as load shedding under extreme conditions to prevent cascading blackouts. The amount of additional transmission and generation that would be required to provide the current level of reliability if load shedding were not available is difficult to imagine and would be impractical to build. In a very real sense demand response solutions are equitably treated in every region - when proposed, demand response projects are evaluated against existing reliability and economic criteria. The regional councils, RTOs, and ISOs identify needs. Others propose transmission, generation, or responsive load based solutions. Few demand response projects get included in transmission enhancement plans because few are proposed. But this is only part of the story. Several factors are responsible for the current very low use of demand response as a transmission enhancement alternative. First, while the generation, transmission, and load business sectors each deal with essentially the same amount of electric power, generation and transmission companies are explicitly in the electric power business but electricity is not the primary business focus of most loads. This changes the institutional focus of each sector. Second

Interim report on the long-term outlook of energy demands and supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

The supply/demand committee on Overall Energy Council has long deliberated on the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and finalized its report, assuming a yearly economic growth of about 5% in 1980s and utmost efforts by both the people and the government: the background and basic ideas to decide the outlook, the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and conclusions. The energy demand for fiscal 1990 is put at 590 million kl (crude oil equivalent) and for fiscal 2000 at 770 million kl with energy saving ratios 15.5% and 25%, respectively. The energy supply by nuclear power for fiscal 1990 is then put at 46,000 MW with 11.3% of the total. In the energy supply outlook for fiscal 1990, the aspects of the economy and stability as well as the quantity of respective energy sources are considered, overall to reduce the reliance on petroleum. (Mori, K.)

Testing the strain hypothesis of the Demand Control Model to explain severe bullying at work

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Notelaers, G.; Baillien, E.; de Witte, H.; Einarsen, S.; Vermunt, J.K.

2013-01-01

Workplace bullying has often been attributed to work-related stress, and has been linked to the Job Demand Control Model. The current study aims to further these studies by testing the model for bullying in a heterogeneous sample and by using latent class (LC)-analyses to define different demands

An Analysis Of Travel Demand Determinants In A Developing City ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In analyzing travel demand determinants in Ijebu-Ode Township, data collected for the study were analyzed by using multiple linear regressions. The study found out that school, work (formal and informed) and shopping trips accounted for about 77% of the total volume of trips generated in the study area. Likewise ...

The development of demand elasticity model for demand response in the retail market environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Babar, M.; Nguyen, P.H.; Kamphuis, I.G.

2015-01-01

In the context of liberalized energy market, increase in distributed generation, storage and demand response has expanded the price elasticity of demand, thus causing the addition of uncertainty to the supply-demand chain of power system. In order to cope with the challenges of demand uncertainty

A Probabilistic Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Model Based on the Markov Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesca Gagliardi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a short-term water demand forecasting method based on the use of the Markov chain. This method provides estimates of future demands by calculating probabilities that the future demand value will fall within pre-assigned intervals covering the expected total variability. More specifically, two models based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov chains were developed and presented. These models, together with two benchmark models (based on artificial neural network and naïve methods, were applied to three real-life case studies for the purpose of forecasting the respective water demands from 1 to 24 h ahead. The results obtained show that the model based on a homogeneous Markov chain provides more accurate short-term forecasts than the one based on a non-homogeneous Markov chain, which is in line with the artificial neural network model. Both Markov chain models enable probabilistic information regarding the stochastic demand forecast to be easily obtained.

Function and Content of Maternal Demands: Developmental Significance of Early Demands for Competent Action.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuczynski, Leon; Kochanska, Grazyna

1995-01-01

Examined mothers' demands during mothers' interactions with their 1.5- to 3.5-year olds. Mothers with authoritative child-rearing attitudes emphasized proactive, competence-oriented demands and avoided regulatory control. Maternal demands for competent action predicted fewer behavior problems in their children at age five; maternal demands focused…

On-Demand Telemetry

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — AFRC has previously investigated the use of Network Based Telemetry. We will be building on that research to enable On-Demand Telemetry. On-Demand Telemetry is a way...

Money Demand in Latvia

OpenAIRE

Ivars Tillers

2004-01-01

The econometric analysis of the demand for broad money in Latvia suggests a stable relationship of money demand. The analysis of parameter exogeneity indicates that the equilibrium adjustment is driven solely by the changes in the amount of money. The demand for money in Latvia is characterised by relatively high income elasticity typical for the economy in a monetary expansion phase. Due to stability, close fit of the money demand function and rapid equilibrium adjustment, broad money aggreg...

Integrated Optimization of Bus Line Fare and Operational Strategies Using Elastic Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunyan Tang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available An optimization approach for designing a transit service system is proposed. Its objective would be the maximization of total social welfare, by providing a profitable fare structure and tailoring operational strategies to passenger demand. These operational strategies include full route operation (FRO, limited stop, short turn, and a mix of the latter two strategies. The demand function is formulated to reflect the attributes of these strategies, in-vehicle crowding, and fare effects on demand variation. The fare is either a flat fare or a differential fare structure; the latter is based on trip distance and achieved service levels. This proposed methodology is applied to a case study of Dalian, China. The optimal results indicate that an optimal combination of operational strategies integrated with a differential fare structure results in the highest potential for increasing total social welfare, if the value of parameter ε related to additional service fee is low. When this value increases up to more than a threshold, strategies with a flat fare show greater benefits. If this value increases beyond yet another threshold, the use of skipped stop strategies is not recommended.

Design and Implementation of Demand Response Information Interactive Service Platform Based on “Internet Plus” Smart Energy

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Gaoying; Fan, Jie; Qin, Yuchen; Wang, Dong; Chen, Guangyan

2017-05-01

In order to promote the effective use of demand response load side resources, promote the interaction between supply and demand, enhance the level of customer service and achieve the overall utilization of energy, this paper briefly explain the background significance of design demand response information platform and current situation of domestic and foreign development; Analyse the new demand of electricity demand response combined with the application of Internet and big data technology; Design demand response information platform architecture, construct demand responsive system, analyse process of demand response strategy formulate and intelligent execution implement; study application which combined with the big data, Internet and demand response technology; Finally, from information interaction architecture, control architecture and function design perspective design implementation of demand response information platform, illustrate the feasibility of the proposed platform design scheme implemented in a certain extent.

Analysis on Price Elasticity of Energy Demand in East Asia: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications for ASEAN and East Asia

OpenAIRE

Han PHOUMIN; Shigeru KIMURA

2014-01-01

This study uses time series data of selected ASEAN and East Asia countries to investigate the patterns of price and income elasticity of energy demand. Applying a dynamic log-linear energy demand model, both short-run and long-run price and income elasticities were estimated by country. The study uses three types of dependent variable “energy demand” such as total primary energy consumption (TPES), total final energy consumption (TFEC) and total final oil consumption (TFOC) to regress on its ...

The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perwez, Usama; Sohail, Ahmed; Hassan, Syed Fahad; Zia, Usman

2015-01-01

The long-term forecasting of electricity demand and supply has assumed significant importance in fundamental research to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity issues. In this article, we provide an overview of structure of electric power sector of Pakistan and a summary of historical electricity demand & supply data, current status of divergent set of energy policies as a framework for development and application of a LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternate Planning) model of Pakistan's electric power sector. Pakistan's LEAP model is used to analyze the supply policy selections and demand assumptions for future power generation system on the basis of economics, technicality and implicit environmental implications. Three scenarios are enacted over the study period (2011–2030) which include BAU (Business-As-Usual), NC (New Coal) & GF (Green Future). The results of these scenarios are compared in terms of projected electricity demand & supply, net present cost analysis (discount rate at 4%, 7% and 10%) and GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reductions, along with sensitivity analysis to study the effect of varying parameters on total cost. A concluding section illustrates the policy implications of model for futuristic power generation and environmental policies in Pakistan. - Highlights: • Pakistan-specific electricity demand model is presented. • None of the scenarios exceeded the price of 12 US Cents/kWh. • By 2030, fuel cost is the most dominant factor to influence electricity per unit cost. • By 2030, CO_2 emissions per unit electricity will increase significantly in coal scenario relative to others. • By 2030, the penetration of renewable energy and conservation policies can save 70.6 tWh electricity.

Deriving local demand for stumpage from estimates of regional supply and demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Kent P. Connaughton; Gerard A. Majerus; David H. Jackson

1989-01-01

The local (Forest-level or local-area) demand for stumpage can be derived from estimates of regional supply and demand. The derivation of local demand is justified when the local timber economy is similar to the regional timber economy; a simple regression of local on nonlocal prices can be used as an empirical test of similarity between local and regional economies....

Job Demands, Job Resources, and Job Performance in Japanese Workers: A Cross-sectional Study

OpenAIRE

NAKAGAWA, Yuko; INOUE, Akiomi; KAWAKAMI, Norito; TSUNO, Kanami; TOMIOKA, Kimiko; NAKANISHI, Mayuko; MAFUNE, Kosuke; HIRO, Hisanori

2014-01-01

This study investigated the cross-sectional association of job demands (i.e., psychological demands) and job resources (i.e., decision latitude, supervisor support, co-worker support, and extrinsic reward) with job performance. A total of 1,198 workers (458 males and 740 females) from a manufacturing company in Japan completed a self-administered questionnaire that included the Job Content Questionnaire, Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire, World Health Organization Health and Work Performa...

Demands of physical activities and efforts in elite basketbal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R.A. Ribeiro

2016-12-01

Full Text Available There is a great importance in describing the demands of physical exertion of the players in official games for we can organize better periodization training. The aim of this study is to propose a new form of demand physical exertion rating of basketball players and analyze the five existing positions in the game. The classification was divided into five classes and their subclass, as follows: a displacement class with its subclasses: forward pair back side, stopped and defensive position, the class of power contact with its subclass one against one, box out, pick and faults, the class of jump, upper-body movements and dribble. We analyzed two teams in a game quarter of the New Basketball Brazil, the players were divided by the positions / functions operating in the basketball game. Found difference between the frequencies, medium time and total time in the displacement class and power contact between positions thus we conclude that it is necessary to detail the demands of physical exertion and analyze five separate positions indicating the need individualized training.

Current leads for superconducting magnets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishibashi, Kenji

1989-01-01

Current leads for superconducting magnets have been studied since 1960's. The technology of current leads may seem to have been established both in theory and experiment before the middle of 1970's. Nevertheless, a wide variety of superconducting magnets have been introduced in the last 15 years, and the demands for special current leads have increased in accordance to the variety. A steady advance has been made in the design theory and fabrication of current leads. This paper describes the recent current lead technology regarding the design theory, safety in accidents, and high current capability. (author)

Supply- and demand-side effects of power sector planning with demand-side management options and SO2 emission constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrestha, R.M.; Marpaung, C.O.P.

2005-01-01

This paper examines the implications of SO 2 emission mitigation constraints in the power sector planning in Indonesia--a developing country--during 2003-2017 from a long term integrated resource planning perspective. A decomposition model is developed to assess the contributions of supply- and demand-side effects to the total changes in CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions from the power sector due to constraints on SO 2 emissions. The results of the study show that both the supply- and demand-side effects would act towards the reduction of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions. However, the supply-side effect would play the dominant role in emission mitigations from the power sector in Indonesia. The average incremental SO 2 abatement cost would increase from US$ 970 to US$ 1271 per ton of SO 2 , while electricity price would increase by 2-18% if the annual SO 2 emission reduction target is increased from 10% to 25%

An energy service company's perspective on demand-side management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bullock, C.G.

1993-01-01

In 1985, Massachusetts Electric Company held a bid for demand reduction to be supplied by energy service companies (ESCOs). It was one of the first demand-side management (DSM) bidding programs held in the United States. Since then, several DSM auctions have been held. Many people expected DSM bidding to be a key component in integrated resource planning. Many observed similarities with supply side bidding, and expected DSM bidding to grow according. Today, more than $2 billion annually is being spent by utilities on DSM programs. Less than $100 million is spent with ESCOs. This chapter explores some of the reasons for the current situation and suggests some alternatives, which could benefit all of the players

Quantifying movement demands of AFL football using GPS tracking.

Science.gov (United States)

Wisbey, Ben; Montgomery, Paul G; Pyne, David B; Rattray, Ben

2010-09-01

Global positioning system (GPS) monitoring of movement patterns is widespread in elite football including the Australian Football League (AFL). However documented analysis of this activity is lacking. We quantified the movement patterns of AFL football and differences between nomadic (midfield), forward and defender playing positions, and determined whether the physical demands have increased over a four season period. Selected premiership games were monitored during the 2005 (n=80 game files), 2006 (n=244), 2007 (n=632) and 2008 (n=793) AFL seasons. Players were fitted with a shoulder harness containing a GPS unit. GPS data were downloaded after games and the following measures extracted: total distance (km), time in various speed zones, maximum speed, number of surges, accelerations, longest continuous efforts and a derived exertion index representing playing intensity. In 2008 nomadic players covered per game 3.4% more total distance (km), had 4.8% less playing time (min), a 17% higher exertion index (per min), and 23% more time running >18kmh(-1) than forwards and defenders (all p<0.05). Physical demands were substantially higher in the 2008 season compared with 2005: an 8.4% increase in mean speed, a 14% increase in intensity (exertion index) and a 9.0% decrease in playing time (all p<0.05). Nomadic players in AFL work substantially harder than forwards and defenders in covering more ground and at higher running intensities. Increases in the physical demands of AFL football were evident between 2005 and 2008. The increasing speed of the game has implications for game authorities, players and coaching staff.

Multivariable polynomial fitting of controlled single-phase nonlinear load of input current total harmonic distortion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sikora Roman

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The power systems usually include a number of nonlinear receivers. Nonlinear receivers are the source of disturbances generated to the power system in the form of higher harmonics. The level of these disturbances describes the total harmonic distortion coefficient THD. Its value depends on many factors. One of them are the deformation and change in RMS value of supply voltage. A modern LED luminaire is a nonlinear receiver as well. The paper presents the results of the analysis of the influence of change in RMS value of supply voltage and the level of dimming of the tested luminaire on the value of the current THD. The analysis was made using a mathematical model based on multivariable polynomial fitting.

Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, E.

2015-01-01

This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

Cognitive task demands, self-control demands and the mental well-being of office workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Bridger, Robert S; Brasher, Kate

2011-09-01

The cognitive task demands of office workers and the self-control demands of their work roles were measured in a sample of 196 employees in two different office layouts using a self-report questionnaire, which was circulated electronically. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that both factors were associated with mental well-being, but not with physical well-being, while controlling for exposure to psychosocial stressors. The interaction between cognitive task demands and self-control demands had the strongest association with mental well-being, suggesting that the deleterious effect of one was greater when the other was present. An exploratory analysis revealed that the association was stronger for employees working in a large open-plan office than for those working in smaller offices with more privacy. Frustration of work goals was the cognitive task demand having the strongest negative impact on mental well-being. Methodological limitations and scale psychometrics (particularly the use of the NASA Task Load Index) are discussed. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Modern office work has high mental demands and low physical demands and there is a need to design offices to prevent adverse psychological reactions. It is shown that cognitive task demands interact with self-control demands to degrade mental well-being. The association was stronger in an open-plan office.

Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock. Scenarios on potential reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sartori, Igor; Hestnes, Anne Grete [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway); Wachenfeldt, Bjoern Jensen [SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, 7465 Trondheim (Norway)

2009-05-15

A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels. (author)

Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sartori, Igor [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway)], E-mail: igor.sartori@sintef.no; Wachenfeldt, Bjorn Jensen [SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, 7465 Trondheim (Norway); Hestnes, Anne Grete [Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim (Norway)

2009-05-15

A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels.

Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sartori, Igor; Wachenfeldt, Bjorn Jensen; Hestnes, Anne Grete

2009-01-01

A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels.

Estimation of demand function on natural gas and study of demand analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Y.D. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1998-04-01

Demand Function is estimated with several methods about the demand on natural gas, and analyzed per usage. Since the demand on natural gas, which has big share of heating use, has a close relationship with temperature, the inter-season trend of price and income elasticity is estimated considering temperature and economic formation. Per usage response of natural gas demand on the changes of price and income is also estimated. It was estimated that the response of gas demand on the changes of price and income occurs by the change of number of users in long term. In case of the response of unit consumption, only industrial use shows long-term response to price. Since gas price barely responds to the change of exchange rate, it seems to express the price-making mechanism that does not reflect timely the import condition such as exchange rate, etc. 16 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

Task demand, task management, and teamwork

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Braarud, Per Oeivind; Brendryen, Haavar

2001-03-15

The current approach to mental workload assessment in process control was evaluated in 3 previous HAMMLAB studies, by analysing the relationship between workload related measures and performance. The results showed that subjective task complexity rating was related to team's control room performance, that mental effort (NASA-TLX) was weakly related to performance, and that overall activity level was unrelated to performance. The results support the argument that general cognitive measures, i.e., mental workload, are weakly related to performance in the process control domain. This implies that other workload concepts than general mental workload are needed for valid assessment of human reliability and for valid assessment of control room configurations. An assessment of task load in process control suggested that how effort is used to handle task demand is more important then the level of effort invested to solve the task. The report suggests two main workload related concepts with a potential as performance predictors in process control: task requirements, and the work style describing how effort is invested to solve the task. The task requirements are seen as composed of individual task demand and team demand. In a similar way work style are seen as composed of individual task management and teamwork style. A framework for the development of the concepts is suggested based on a literature review and experiences from HAMMLAB research. It is suggested that operational definitions of workload concepts should be based on observable control room behaviour, to assure a potential for developing performance-shaping factors. Finally an explorative analysis of teamwork measures and performance in one study indicated that teamwork concepts are related to performance. This lends support to the suggested development of team demand and teamwork style as elements of a framework for the analysis of workload in process control. (Author)

Demand side load management using a three step optimization methodology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, Vincent; Bosman, M.G.C.; Molderink, Albert; Hurink, Johann L.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria

2010-01-01

In order to keep a proper functional electricity grid and to prevent large investments in the current grid, the creation, transmission and consumption of electricity needs to be controlled and organized in a different way as done nowadays. Smart meters, distributed generation and -storage and demand

Chlorine demand and residual chlorine decay kinetics of Kali river water at Kaiga project area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krishna Bhat, D.; Prakash, T.R.; Thimme Gowda, B.; Sherigara, B.S.; Khader, A.M.A.

1995-01-01

The nuclear power plant at Kaiga would use Kali river water for condenser cooling. This necessitated studies on the chemistry of chlorination such as chlorine demand, kinetics of chlorination and other water characteristics aimed at obtaining base line data. The study revealed significant seasonal variation of chlorine demand ranging from 0.5 ppm to 1.7 ppm (3.0 ppm dose, 30 min contact time) and total consumption of 5.0 ppm (10.0 ppm dose, 48 hours contact time). The reaction follows first order kinetics in chlorine. High correlation of chlorine demand with chlorophyll a, suspended matter, turbidity, silica, nitrite, phosphate and sulphate indicated that chlorine demand is greatly influenced by water quality. (author). 3 refs., 1 tab

Current state and development trends of inspections of steam generator tubes by eddy currents method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kubis, S.; Herman, M.

1988-01-01

The requirements are presented for steam generator tube testing and the factors are discussed affecting the accuracy of measurement by the eddy currents method. The individual types of the eddy currents method are described, such as the single-frequency method, the multi-frequency method and the pulse eddy currents method. The demands are summed up on manipulator systems whose design is adapted to the steam generator configuration conditions. (E.S.). 5 figs., 16 possu

The worst case scenario: Locomotor and collision demands of the longest periods of gameplay in professional rugby union.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cillian Reardon

Full Text Available A number of studies have used global positioning systems (GPS to report on positional differences in the physical game demands of rugby union both on an average and singular bout basis. However, the ability of these studies to report quantitative data is limited by a lack of validation of certain aspects of measurement by GPS micro-technology. Furthermore no study has analyzed the positional physical demands of the longest bouts of ball-in-play time in rugby union. The aim of the present study is to compare the demands of the single longest period of ball-in-play, termed "worst case scenario" (WCS between positional groups, which have previously been reported to have distinguishable game demands. The results of this study indicate that WCS periods follow a similar sporadic pattern as average demands but are played at a far higher pace than previously reported for average game demands with average meters per minute of 116.8 m. The positional differences in running and collision activity previously reported are perpetuated within WCS periods. Backs covered greater total distances than forwards (318 m vs 289 m, carried out more high-speed running (11.1 m·min-1 vs 5.5 m·min-1 and achieved higher maximum velocities (MaxVel. Outside Backs achieved the highest MaxVel values (6.84 m·sec-1. Tight Five and Back Row forwards underwent significantly more collisions than Inside Back and Outside Backs (0.73 & 0.89 collisions·min-1 vs 0.28 & 0.41 collisions·min-1 respectively. The results of the present study provide information on the positional physical requirements of performance in prolonged periods involving multiple high intensity bursts of effort. Although the current state of GPS micro-technology as a measurement tool does not permit reporting of collision intensity or acceleration data, the combined use of video and GPS provides valuable information to the practitioner. This can be used to match and replicate game demands in training.

The worst case scenario: Locomotor and collision demands of the longest periods of gameplay in professional rugby union

Science.gov (United States)

Reardon, Cillian; Tobin, Daniel P.; Tierney, Peter; Delahunt, Eamonn

2017-01-01

A number of studies have used global positioning systems (GPS) to report on positional differences in the physical game demands of rugby union both on an average and singular bout basis. However, the ability of these studies to report quantitative data is limited by a lack of validation of certain aspects of measurement by GPS micro-technology. Furthermore no study has analyzed the positional physical demands of the longest bouts of ball-in-play time in rugby union. The aim of the present study is to compare the demands of the single longest period of ball-in-play, termed “worst case scenario” (WCS) between positional groups, which have previously been reported to have distinguishable game demands. The results of this study indicate that WCS periods follow a similar sporadic pattern as average demands but are played at a far higher pace than previously reported for average game demands with average meters per minute of 116.8 m. The positional differences in running and collision activity previously reported are perpetuated within WCS periods. Backs covered greater total distances than forwards (318 m vs 289 m), carried out more high-speed running (11.1 m·min-1 vs 5.5 m·min-1) and achieved higher maximum velocities (MaxVel). Outside Backs achieved the highest MaxVel values (6.84 m·sec-1). Tight Five and Back Row forwards underwent significantly more collisions than Inside Back and Outside Backs (0.73 & 0.89 collisions·min-1 vs 0.28 & 0.41 collisions·min-1 respectively). The results of the present study provide information on the positional physical requirements of performance in prolonged periods involving multiple high intensity bursts of effort. Although the current state of GPS micro-technology as a measurement tool does not permit reporting of collision intensity or acceleration data, the combined use of video and GPS provides valuable information to the practitioner. This can be used to match and replicate game demands in training. PMID:28510582

Dietetics supply and demand: 2010-2020.

Science.gov (United States)

Hooker, Roderick S; Williams, James H; Papneja, Jesleen; Sen, Namrata; Hogan, Paul

2012-03-01

The Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, in conjunction with the Commission on Dietetic Registration (CDR), invited The Lewin Group to undertake an analysis of the dietetics workforce. The purpose of the workforce study was to develop a model that can project the supply and demand for both registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) (collectively referred to as CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners) as the result of various key drivers of change. The research team was asked to quantify key market factors where possible and to project likely paths for the evolution of workforce supply and demand, as well as to assess the implications of the findings. This article drew on the survey research conducted by Readex Research and futurist organizations such as Signature i and Trend Spot Consulting. Furthermore, members of the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force were a source of institutional and clinical information relevant to the credentialed dietetics workforce--including their opinions and judgment of the current state of the health care market for dietetic services, its future state, and factors affecting it, which were useful and were integrated with the objective sources of data. The model is flexible and accommodates the variation in how RDs and DTRs function in diverse practice areas. For purposes of this study and model, the dietetics workforce is composed of RDs and DTRs. This report presents the results of this workforce study and the methodology used to calculate the projected dietetics workforce supply and demand. The projections are based on historical trends and estimated future changes. Key findings of the study included the following: • The average age of all CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners in baseline supply (2010) is 44 years; approximately 96% are women. • Approximately 55% of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners work in clinical dietetics. • The annual growth rate of supply of CDR

A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nel, Willem P.; Cooper, Christopher J.

2008-01-01

China has a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly increasing demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) investigated possible future oil demand scenarios for China in the 2006 World Energy Outlook. The debate on whether oil supplies will be constrained in the near future, because of limited new discoveries, raises the concern that the oil industry may not be able to produce sufficient oil to meet this demand. This paper examines the historical relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in a number of countries. Logistic curve characteristics are observed in the relationship between per capita economic activity and oil consumption. This research has determined that the minimum statistical (lower-bound) annual oil consumption for developed countries is 11 barrels per capita. Despite the increase reported in total energy efficiency, no developed country has been able to reduce oil consumption below this lower limit. Indeed, the IEA projections to 2030 for the OECD countries show no reduction in oil demand on a per capita basis. If this lower limit is applied to China, it is clear that the IEA projections for China are under-estimating the growth in demand for oil. This research has determined that this under-estimation could be as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2025. If proponents of Peak Oil such as Laherrere, Campbell and Deffeyes are correct about the predicted peak in oil production before 2020 then the implications of this reassessment of China's oil demand will have profound implications for mankind

Decision support program for congestion management using demand side flexibility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Esmat, Ayman; Pinson, Pierre; Usaola, Julio

2017-01-01

In the past decades, Distribution System Operators (DSOs) have been mitigating distribution networks (DNs) contingencies by opting to grid reinforcements. However, this approach is not always cost and time efficient. Demand Side Flexibility (DSF) is one of the recent alternatives used in DNs cong...... effect is taken into consideration as well as the uncertain behavior of customers. Finally, the distribution grid of the Danish Bornholm Island is used to illustrate the merits of the DSP. The total cost incurred by the DSO is calculated and presented.......In the past decades, Distribution System Operators (DSOs) have been mitigating distribution networks (DNs) contingencies by opting to grid reinforcements. However, this approach is not always cost and time efficient. Demand Side Flexibility (DSF) is one of the recent alternatives used in DNs...... congestion management. Consequently, new market players such as aggregators are needed to handle DSF transaction between customers and DSOs. This paper proposes and models a decision support program (DSP) to optimize the total cost charged by the DSO for using DSF services. Moreover, the energy rebound...

Growing energy demand - environmental impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rama Rao, G.A.

2012-01-01

Scientists can bring information, insights, and analytical skills to bear on matters of public concern. Often they can help the public and its representatives to understand the likely causes of events (such as natural and technological disasters) and to estimate the possible effects of projected policies. Often they can testify to what is not possible. Even so, scientists can seldom bring definitive answers to matters of public debate. Some issues are too complex to fit within the current scope of science, or there may be little reliable information available, or the values involved may lie outside of science. Scientists and technologists strive to find an answer to the growing energy demand

Demand specifying variables and current ventilation rate requirements with respect to the future use of voc sensing for dcv control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kolarik, Jakub

be also taken into account in the ventilation control. Recent development in gas sensing technology resulted in a new generation of relatively cheap and practically applicable sensors that can offer measurements of some of the pollutants mentioned above – mainly Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC......Demand Controlled Ventilation (DCV) is a well established principle to provide a certain indoor environmental quality, defined both in the terms of air quality and thermal comfort. This is accomplished by adjusting the supplied airflow rate according to a certain demand indicator, which......). This seems to bring a new dimension into the control of DCV systems. This paper is a contribution to the workshop on utilization of VOC sensing technology used for DCV control. The aim of the paper is to provide a short review of different types of demand variables used to control DCV systems and summarize...

An analytical approach to activating demand elasticity with a demand response mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clastres, Cedric; Khalfallah, Haikel

2015-01-01

The aim of this work is to demonstrate analytically the conditions under which activating the elasticity of consumer demand could benefit social welfare. We have developed an analytical equilibrium model to quantify the effect of deploying demand response on social welfare and energy trade. The novelty of this research is that it demonstrates the existence of an optimal area for the price signal in which demand response enhances social welfare. This optimal area is negatively correlated to the degree of competitiveness of generation technologies and the market size of the system. In particular, it should be noted that the value of un-served energy or energy reduction which the producers could lose from such a demand response scheme would limit its effectiveness. This constraint is even greater if energy trade between countries is limited. Finally, we have demonstrated scope for more aggressive demand response, when only considering the impact in terms of consumer surplus. (authors)

Motor fuel demand analysis - applied modelling in the European union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chorazewiez, S.

1998-01-01

Motor fuel demand in Europe amounts to almost half of petroleum products consumption and to thirty percent of total final energy consumption. This study considers, Firstly, the energy policies of different European countries and the ways in which the consumption of motor gasoline and automotive gas oil has developed. Secondly it provides an abstract of demand models in the energy sector, illustrating their specific characteristics. Then it proposes an economic model of automotive fuel consumption, showing motor gasoline and automotive gas oil separately over a period of thirty years (1960-1993) for five main countries in the European Union. Finally, forecasts of consumption of gasoline and diesel up to the year 2020 are given for different scenarios. (author)

Renewable energy: GIS-based mapping and modelling of potentials and demand

Science.gov (United States)

Blaschke, Thomas; Biberacher, Markus; Schardinger, Ingrid.; Gadocha, Sabine; Zocher, Daniela

2010-05-01

Worldwide demand of energy is growing and will continue to do so for the next decades to come. IEA has estimated that global primary energy demand will increase by 40 - 50% from 2003 to 2030 (IEA, 2005) depending on the fact whether currently contemplated energy policies directed towards energy-saving and fuel-diversification will be effectuated. The demand for Renewable Energy (RE) is undenied but clear figures and spatially disaggregated potentials for the various energy carriers are very rare. Renewable Energies are expected to reduce pressures on the environment and CO2 production. In several studies in Germany (North-Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony) and Austria we studied the current and future pattern of energy production and consumption. In this paper we summarize and benchmark different RE carriers, namely wind, biomass (forest and non-forest, geothermal, solar and hydro power. We demonstrate that GIS-based scalable and flexible information delivery sheds new light on the prevailing metaphor of GIS as a processing engine serving needs of users more on demand rather than through ‘maps on stock'. We compare our finding with those of several energy related EU-FP7 projects in Europe where we have been involved - namely GEOBENE, REACCESS, ENERGEO - and demonstrate that more and more spatial data will become available together with tools that allow experts to do their own analyses and to communicate their results in ways which policy makers and the public can readily understand and use as a basis for their own actions. Geoportals in combination with standardised geoprocessing today supports the older vision of an automated presentation of data on maps, and - if user privileges are given - facilities to interactively manipulate these maps. We conclude that the most critical factor in modelling energy supply and demand remain the economic valuation of goods and services, especially the forecast of future end consumer energy costs.

Employment consequences of depressive symptoms and work demands individually and combined.

Science.gov (United States)

Thielen, Karsten; Nygaard, Else; Andersen, Ingelise; Diderichsen, Finn

2014-02-01

Denmark, like other Western countries, is recently burdened by increasingly high social spending on employment consequences caused by ill mental health. This might be the result of high work demands affecting persons with ill mental health. Therefore, this study assesses to what extent depressive symptoms and high work demands, individually and combined, have an effect on employment consequences. We conducted a population-based 7-year longitudinal follow-up study with baseline information from the year 2000 on socio-demographics, lifestyle, depressive symptoms and work demands. In total, 5785 employed persons, aged 40 and 50 years, were included. Information about employment status, sick leave and work disability was obtained from registers. Logistic regression models were used to measure separate and combined effects of depressive symptoms and work demands on job change, unemployment and sick leave during 2001-02 and work disability during 2003-07. After adjustment for covariates, high physical work demands and depressive symptoms had a graded effect on subsequent unemployment, sick leave and permanent work disability. Persons with both depressive symptoms and high physical demands had the highest risks, especially for sick leave, but the combined effect did not exceed the product of single effects. Persons who perceived high amount of work changed job significantly more frequently. Persons with depressive symptoms might have an increased risk of negative employment consequences irrespective of the kind and amount of work demands. This might be an effect on the level of work ability in general as well as partly the result of health selection and co-morbidity.

Development of a New Web Portal for the Database on Demand Service

CERN Document Server

Altinigne, Can Yilmaz

2017-01-01

The Database on Demand service allows members of CERN communities to provision and manage database instances of different flavours (MySQL, Oracle, PostgreSQL and InfluxDB). Users can create and edit these instances using the web interface of DB On Demand. This web front end is currently on Java technologies and the ZK web framework, for which is generally difficult to find experienced developers and which has gotten to lack behind more modern web stacks in capabilities and usability.

Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lescaroux, Francois

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand. For the main end-use sectors of consumption (industrial, commercial and public services, residential and road transportation), per-capita demand is expressed as an S-shaped function of per-capita income. Other variables intervene as well, like energy prices, temperatures and technological trends. This model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates (covering the whole world) and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral, final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s. Further, the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand, by sector and in total. The main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity. The simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell-shape, as reported in the literature. Depending on initial conditions, the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources, various forms might emerge. - Research Highlights: → The residential sector accounts for most of final energy consumption at low income levels. → Its share drops at the benefit of the industrial, services and road transportation sectors in turn. → Sectoral shares' pattern is affected by changes in geographic, sociologic and economic factors. → Final energy intensity may show various shapes and does not exhibit necessarily a bell-shape.

New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

2011-12-01

Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0

Connecting empowerment-focused HRM and labor productivity to work engagement : The mediating role of job demands and resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Voorde, F.C.; Veld, M.; van Veldhoven, M.J.P.M.

2016-01-01

Integrating the strategic HRM literature with key aspects of the job demands-resources (JDR) model, we propose in this study that empowerment-focused HRM and labour productivity influence work engagement of employees by shaping task-related resources and demands. A total of 311 employees nested

Connecting empowerment-focused HRM and labour productivity to work engagement: the mediating role of job demands and resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Voorde, Karina; Veld, M.F.A.; van Veldhoven, Marc

2016-01-01

Integrating the strategic HRM literature with key aspects of the job demands-resources (JDR) model, we propose in this study that empowerment-focused HRM and labour productivity influence work engagement of employees by shaping task-related resources and demands. A total of 311 employees nested

Demanding Dynamics - Demand articulation of intermediary organisations in emerging pharmaceutical innovations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boon, W.P.C.

2008-01-01

User involvement in emerging technological fields is carried by so-called demand articulation processes. These demand articulation processes are interactive learning processes in which stakeholders try to address what they perceive as important characteristics of, and to unravel preferences for an

A Survey on the Usage and Demand of Medical Radioisotope and Radiopharmaceuticals in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muhammad Fakhrurazi Ahmad Fadzil; Siti Selina Abdul Hamid; Siti Najila Mohd Janib; Azahari Kasbollah; Syed Asraf Fahlawi Wafa

2016-01-01

Medical radioisotope is a small quantity of radioactive substance used for the purpose of diagnostic and therapy of various diseases. In Malaysia, the emerging of new nuclear medicine centers or institutions in both government and private sectors rose abruptly for the past few years. Currently, there are no data available on the usage and demand of these medical radioisotope or radiopharmaceuticals. The aim of this study is to assess current medical radioisotopes and radiopharmaceuticals usage and also to provide data on current medical radioisotope and radiopharmaceuticals demand for both private and government hospitals or institutions in Malaysia. A survey for a period of 3 months was conducted across Malaysia. The survey was divided into five (5) main parts and it was distributed among health care professionals involved working with medical radioisotope and radiopharmaceuticals in private, government and university based hospitals or institutions and was distributed manually either by hand, mail or e-mail. Data is presented in either pie chart or bar chart. Survey results found out that the highest demand and the highest usage among all radioisotopes are Technetium-99m and radioiodine isotopes such as the iodine-131, iodine-131 MIBG, iodine-123 and iodine-123 MIBG. Technetium-99m is the backbone of nuclear medicine whereby more than 80 % of Nuclear Medicine services utilize this radioisotope. Technetium-99m supply chain is unstable globally and in coming future, two main reactors that produce 60 % of world Molybdenum-99 will shut down and the supply of molybdenum-99 will be disrupted. In radioiodine services, currently, Iodine-123 cannot be obtained in Malaysia and neighboring countries due to its short half-life. Iodine-123 is useful in diagnostic of thyroid related diseases. As for PET services, the highest demands are F-18 FDG and gallium-68 Generator. It is important for Malaysia to self-produced medical radioisotope and radiopharmaceuticals to meet the

Reduction of peak energy demand based on smart appliances energy consumption adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

Powroźnik, P.; Szulim, R.

2017-08-01

In the paper the concept of elastic model of energy management for smart grid and micro smart grid is presented. For the proposed model a method for reducing peak demand in micro smart grid has been defined. The idea of peak demand reduction in elastic model of energy management is to introduce a balance between demand and supply of current power for the given Micro Smart Grid in the given moment. The results of the simulations studies were presented. They were carried out on real household data available on UCI Machine Learning Repository. The results may have practical application in the smart grid networks, where there is a need for smart appliances energy consumption adjustment. The article presents a proposal to implement the elastic model of energy management as the cloud computing solution. This approach of peak demand reduction might have application particularly in a large smart grid.

Blocking-out auditory distracters while driving : A cognitive strategy to reduce task-demands on the road

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Unal, Ayca Berfu; Platteel, Samantha; Steg, Linda; Epstude, Kai

The current research examined how drivers handle task-demands induced by listening to the radio while driving. In particular, we explored the traces of a possible cognitive strategy that might be used by drivers to cope with task-demands, namely blocking-out auditory distracters. In Study 1 (N =

The optimization of demand response programs in smart grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derakhshan, Ghasem; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali; Kazemi, Ahad

2016-01-01

The potential to schedule portion of the electricity demand in smart energy systems is clear as a significant opportunity to enhance the efficiency of the grids. Demand response is one of the new developments in the field of electricity which is meant to engage consumers in improving the energy consumption pattern. We used Teaching & Learning based Optimization (TLBO) and Shuffled Frog Leaping (SFL) algorithms to propose an optimization model for consumption scheduling in smart grid when payment costs of different periods are reduced. This study conducted on four types residential consumers obtained in the summer for some residential houses located in the centre of Tehran city in Iran: first with time of use pricing, second with real-time pricing, third one with critical peak pricing, and the last consumer had no tariff for pricing. The results demonstrate that the adoption of demand response programs can reduce total payment costs and determine a more efficient use of optimization techniques. - Highlights: •An optimization model for the demand response program is made. •TLBO and SFL algorithms are applied to reduce payment costs in smart grid. •The optimal condition is provided for the maximization of the social welfare problem. •An application to some residential houses located in the centre of Tehran city in Iran is demonstrated.

Developing estimates of potential demand for renewable wood energy products in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Allen M. Brackley; Valerie A. Barber; Cassie Pinkel

2010-01-01

Goal three of the current U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service strategy for improving the use of woody biomass is to help develop and expand markets for woody biomass products. This report is concerned with the existing volumes of renewable wood energy products (RWEP) that are currently used in Alaska and the potential demand for RWEP for residential and...

Impacts of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake on electricity demand in Japan. State space approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Honjo, Keita; Ashina, Shuichi

2017-01-01

Some papers report that consumers' electricity saving behavior (Setsuden) after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake resulted in the reduction of the domestic electricity demand. However, time variation of the electricity saving effect (ESE) has not yet been sufficiently investigated. In this study, we develop a state space model of monthly electricity demand using long-term data, and estimate time variation of the ESE. We also estimate time variation of CO_2 emissions caused by Setsuden. Our result clearly indicates that Setsuden after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and October 2015, the ESE on power demand ranged from 2.9% to 6.9%, and the ESE on light demand ranged from 2.6% to 9.0%. The ESE on the total electricity demand was 3.2%-7.5%. Setsuden also contributed to the reduction of CO_2 emissions, but it could not offset the emissions increase caused by the shutdown of nuclear power plants. (author)

A train dispatching model based on fuzzy passenger demand forecasting during holidays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Dou Dou

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Purpose: The train dispatching is a crucial issue in the train operation adjustment when passenger flow outbursts. During holidays, the train dispatching is to meet passenger demand to the greatest extent, and ensure safety, speediness and punctuality of the train operation. In this paper, a fuzzy passenger demand forecasting model is put up, then a train dispatching optimization model is established based on passenger demand so as to evacuate stranded passengers effectively during holidays. Design/methodology/approach: First, the complex features and regularity of passenger flow during holidays are analyzed, and then a fuzzy passenger demand forecasting model is put forward based on the fuzzy set theory and time series theory. Next, the bi-objective of the train dispatching optimization model is to minimize the total operation cost of the train dispatching and unserved passenger volume during holidays. Finally, the validity of this model is illustrated with a case concerned with the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway in China. Findings: The case study shows that the fuzzy passenger demand forecasting model can predict outcomes more precisely than ARIMA model. Thus train dispatching optimization plan proves that a small number of trains are able to serve unserved passengers reasonably and effectively. Originality/value: On the basis of the passenger demand predictive values, the train dispatching optimization model is established, which enables train dispatching to meet passenger demand in condition that passenger flow outbursts, so as to maximize passenger demand by offering the optimal operation plan.

Positive feedback : exploring current approaches in iterative travel demand model implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Currently, the models that TxDOTs Transportation Planning and Programming Division (TPP) developed are : traditional three-step models (i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, and traffic assignment) that are sequentially : applied. A limitation...

Demand modelling for central heating systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heller, A.

2000-07-01

Most researchers in the field of heat demand estimation have focussed on explaning the load for a given plant based on rather few measurements. This approach is simply the only one adaptable with the very limited data material and limited computer power. This way of dealing with the subject is here called the top-down approach, due to the fact that one tries to explain the load from the overall data. The results of such efforts are discussed in the report, leading to inspiration for own work. Also the significance of the findings to the causes for given heat loads are discussed and summarised. Contrary to the top-down approach applied in literature, a here-called bottom-up approach is applied in this work, describing the causes of a given partial load in detail and combining them to explain the total load for the system. Three partial load 'components' are discussed: 1) Space heating. 2) Hot-Water Consumption. 3) Heat losses in pipe networks. The report is aimed at giving an introduction to these subjects, but at the same time at collecting the previous work done by the author. Space heating is shortly discussed and loads are generated by an advanced simulation model. A hot water consumption model is presented and heat loads, generated by this model, utilised in the overall work. Heat loads due to heat losses in district heating a given a high priority in the current work. Hence a detailed presentation and overview of the subject is given to solar heating experts normally not dealing with district heating. Based on the 'partial' loads generated by the above-mentioned method, an overall load model is built in the computer simulation environment TRNSYS. The final tool is then employed for the generation of time series for heat demand, representing a district heating area. The results are compared to alternative methods for the generation of heat demand profiles. Results form this comparison will be presented. Computerised modelling of systems

PREDICTION OF DEMAND FOR PRIMARY BOND OFFERINGS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michal Tkac

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Primary bond markets represent an interesting investment opportunity not only for banks, insurance companies, and other institutional investors, but also for individuals looking for capital gains. Since offered securities vary in terms of their rating, industrial classification, coupon, or maturity, demand of buyers for particular offerings often overcomes issued volume and price of given bond on secondary market consequently rises. Investors might be regarded as consumers purchasing required service according to their specific preferences at desired price. This paper aims at analysis of demand for bonds on primary market using artificial neural networks.Design/methodology: We design a multilayered feedforward neural network trained by Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in order to estimate demand for individual bonds based on parameters of particular offerings. Outcomes obtained by artificial neural network are compared with conventional econometric methods.Findings: Our results indicate that artificial neural network significantly outperformed standard econometric techniques and on examined sample of primary bond offerings achieved considerably better performance in terms of prediction accuracy and mean squared error.Originality: We show that proposed neural network is able to successfully predict demand for primary obligation offerings based on their specifications. Moreover, we identify relevant parameters of issues which are able to considerably affect total demand for given security.  Our findings might not only help investors to detect marketable securities, but also enable issuing entities to increase demand for their bonds in order to decrease their offering price. 

Effect of price elasticity of demand in monopolies with gradient adjustment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

2015-01-01

Highlights: •A monopoly with isoelastic demand function is studied. •Reduced rationality monopolist uses gradient adjustment. •If marginal cost is small, increasing elasticity leads to stable dynamics. •For large marginal cost, dynamic can be unstable for both small and large elasticity. -- Abstract: We study a monopolistic market characterized by a constant elasticity demand function, in which the firm technology is described by a linear total cost function. The firm is assumed to be boundedly rational and to follow a gradient rule to adjust the production level in order to optimize its profit. We focus on what happens on varying the price elasticity of demand, studying the effect on the equilibrium stability. We prove that, depending on the relation between the market size and the marginal cost, two different scenarios are possible, in which elasticity has either a stabilizing or a mixed stabilizing/destabilizing effect

How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

2017-04-01

Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water

Energy Demand Forecasting: Combining Cointegration Analysis and Artificial Intelligence Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junbing Huang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Energy is vital for the sustainable development of China. Accurate forecasts of annual energy demand are essential to schedule energy supply and provide valuable suggestions for developing related industries. In the existing literature on energy use prediction, the artificial intelligence-based (AI-based model has received considerable attention. However, few econometric and statistical evidences exist that can prove the reliability of the current AI-based model, an area that still needs to be addressed. In this study, a new energy demand forecasting framework is presented at first. On the basis of historical annual data of electricity usage over the period of 1985–2015, the coefficients of linear and quadratic forms of the AI-based model are optimized by combining an adaptive genetic algorithm and a cointegration analysis shown as an example. Prediction results of the proposed model indicate that the annual growth rate of electricity demand in China will slow down. However, China will continue to demand about 13 trillion kilowatt hours in 2030 because of population growth, economic growth, and urbanization. In addition, the model has greater accuracy and reliability compared with other single optimization methods.

Quantitative relationship between nanotube length and anodizing current during constant current anodization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yulian; Cheng, Weijie; Du, Fei; Zhang, Shaoyu; Ma, Weihua; Li, Dongdong; Song, Ye; Zhu, Xufei

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Ti anodization was performed by constant current rather than constant voltage. • The nanotube length was controlled by ionic current rather than dissolution current. • Electronic current can be estimated by the nanotube length and the anodizing current. • Dissolution reaction hardly contributes electric current across the barrier layer. - Abstract: The growth kinetics of anodic TiO 2 nanotubes (ATNTs) still remains unclear. ATNTs are generally fabricated under potentiostatic conditions rather than galvanostatic ones. The quantitative relationship between nanotube length and anodizing current (J total ) is difficult to determine, because the variable J total includes ionic current (J ion ) (also called oxide growth current J grow =J ion ) and electronic current (J e ), which cannot be separated from each other. One successful approach to achieve this objective is to use constant current anodization rather than constant voltage anodization, that is, through quantitative comparison between the nanotube length and the known J total during constant current anodization, we can estimate the relative magnitudes of J grow and J e . The nanotubes with lengths of 1.24, 2.23, 3.51 and 4.70 μm, were formed under constant currents (J total ) of 15, 20, 25 and 30 mA, respectively. The relationship between nanotube length (y) and anodizing current (x =J total =J grow +J e ) can be expressed by a fitting equation: y=0.23(x-10.13), from which J grow (J grow = x -10.13) and J e (∼10.13 mA) could be inferred under the present conditions. Meanwhile, the same conclusion could also be deduced from the oxide volume data. These results indicate that the nanotube growth is attributed to the oxide growth current rather than the dissolution current.

Physiological demands of women's rugby union: time-motion analysis and heart rate response.

Science.gov (United States)

Virr, Jody Lynn; Game, Alex; Bell, Gordon John; Syrotuik, Daniel

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the physical demands of women's rugby union match play using time-motion analysis and heart rate (HR) response. Thirty-eight premier club level female rugby players, ages 18-34 years were videotaped and HRs monitored for a full match. Performances were coded into 12 different movement categories: 5 speeds of locomotion (standing, walking, jogging, striding, sprinting), 4 forms of intensive non-running exertion (ruck/maul/tackle, pack down, scrum, lift) and 3 discrete activities (kick, jump, open field tackle). The main results revealed that backs spend significantly more time sprinting and walking whereas forwards spend more time in intensive non-running exertion and jogging. Forwards also had a significantly higher total work frequency compared to the backs, but a higher total rest frequency compared to the backs. In terms of HR responses, forwards displayed higher mean HRs throughout the match and more time above 80% of their maximum HR than backs. In summary, women's rugby union is characterised by intermittent bursts of high-intensity activity, where forwards and backs have similar anaerobic energy demands, but different specific match demands.

Natural gas consumption trends and demand projections for Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Memon, H.U.R.

2005-01-01

Pakistan is an energy deficient country and heavily depends on imported energy. Natural gas is a dominating source of commercial energy in the country. This paper presents the natural gas consumption trends and future demand projections for Pakistan. The paper also investigates the potential utilization options of natural gas in the country. The study indicates that the natural gas consumption in the country increased rapidly at an average growth rate of about 6.8% per annum during the last three decades. Currently, natural gas contributes about 44.2% of the primary commercial energy supply in the country. Power, Fertilizer, General industry and Domestic sectors are the major consumers of gas in the country. The paper concludes the natural gas demand in the country is projected to increase to about 34-64 MTOE (Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) by the year 2018. Enhancement in the indigenous exploration and modulation of gas and import of gas from central Asian Sates is essential for meeting the growing gas demand, protecting the environment and increasing the economic independence in the country. (author)

More countries in recession: Oil supply looking for demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1993-01-01

Crude oil prices fell dramatically during the fourth quarter of 1992. Refiners are reevaluating their positions to adjust to low demand growth worldwide. The only bright spot appears to be the United States' emergence from its economic recession. However, Japan and Germany are experiencing their own economic recessions, and crude oil supplies show no sign of tightening. Crude oil futures prices have fallen by more than 15% as of January 8, 1993 compared to October 1, 1992. Although the American Petroleum Institute (API) found increases in oil demand during October and November 1992, the increases are attributed to colder weather and the weak 1991 demand that was used for comparison. This issue identifies current factors at work affecting U.S. refining margins and product values, and offers a first quarter 1993 outlook. All data featured in graphs and text come from the Energy detente Refinery Netback Data Series published in each issue, in which gasoline and diesel No. 2 are Lundberg Survey unbranded racks instead of spot quotations. Margins are apparent deltas only and do not reflect actual profits for any individual operation

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

On energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haefele, W.

1977-01-01

Since the energy crisis, a number of energy plans have been proposed, and almost all of these envisage some kind of energy demand adaptations or conservation measures, hoping thus to escape the anticipated problems of energy supply. However, there seems to be no clear explanation of the basis on which our foreseeable future energy problems could be eased. And in fact, a first attempt at a more exact definition of energy demand and its interaction with other objectives, such as economic ones, shows that it is a highly complex concept which we still hardly understand. The article explains in some detail why it is so difficult to understand energy demand

Demand side management for commercial buildings using an in line heat pump water heating methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rankin, Riaan; Rousseau, Pieter G.; Eldik, Martin van

2004-01-01

Most of the sanitary hot water used in South African buildings is heated by means of direct electrical resistance heaters. This is one of the major contributors to the undesirably high morning and afternoon peaks imposed on the national electricity supply grid. For this reason, water heating continues to be of concern to the electricity supplier, ESCOM. Previous studies, conducted by the Potchefstroom University for Christian Higher Education in South Africa, indicated that extensive application of the so called inline heat pump water heating methodology in commercial buildings could result in significant demand side management savings to ESKOM. Furthermore, impressive paybacks can be obtained by building owners who choose to implement the design methodology on existing or new systems. Currently, a few examples exist where the design methodology has been successfully implemented. These installations are monitored with a fully web centric monitoring system that allows 24 h access to data from each installation. Based on these preliminary results, a total peak demand reduction of 108 MW can be achieved, which represents 18% of the peak load reduction target set by ESKOM until the year 2015. This represents an avoided cost of approximately MR324 (ZAR) [Int J Energy Res 25(4) (1999) 2000]. Results based on actual data from the monitored installations shows a significant peak demand reduction for each installation. In one installation, a hotel with an occupancy of 220 people, the peak demand contribution of the hot water installation was reduced by 86%, realizing a 36% reduction in peak demand for the whole building. The savings incurred by the building owner also included significant energy consumption savings due to the superior energy efficiency of the heat pump water heater. The combined savings result in a conservatively calculated straight payback period of 12.5 months, with an internal rate of return of 98%. The actual cost of water heating is studied by

Meeting increased demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Blair, Andrew

2004-07-01

New Zealand is a little country with a little economy but with a population that's rapidly aging. New Zealand's population is only 4.3 million people. It's GDP is only $US58.6 billion (2002). New Zealand's expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP is not out of line with that of other countries. As a nation we have been increasing expenditure on health over recent years. In 1990 we spent 7% of GDP on health. In 1995 that increased to 7.65% and is now 8.3%. However, in per capita terms our expenditure on health does not compare so well with like countries. The size of New Zealand's economy is restricting what our country spends on health. Health is already the second highest demand on the New Zealand tax dollar. The tolerance of New Zealanders would be challenged if a Government attempted to increase taxes further to meet the growing demands for expenditure on health, but at the same time the population's expectations are increasing. This is the challenging situation we face today. What lies ahead? Like all industrialized countries New Zealand is facing an aging population. The population below age 40 is decreasing, but it is increasing significantly over that age. 16% of the population is currently aged over 60. By 2051 this proportion will almost double to just over 31%. Coupled with the aging population is increased awareness and expectations, as access to options for treatment and technology becomes readily accessible to the population through such media as the internet. The extent of the impact of the aging population can be clearly represented by focusing on one specialty such as orthopaedics. The New Zealand Orthopaecic Association undertook a study in July 2003 which concluded (among other things) that as a result of the projected aging of the population, over the next 50 years: Musculo-skeletal operations will increase by over 30%. The number of hip replacements will nearly double. The incidence of osteoporosis will increase by a massive 201%. The number

Long-term forecasts of regional, customer and use-specific energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwarz, Juerg

1999-11-01

In the future the Swiss electricity market will have to contend with changes stemming from market liberalization. The need for instruments to analyze and predict market shares of electricity is greater than ever; tools are also greatly needed to help managers and workers prepare for new beginnings and to reorient customers. The development and application of such an instrument are the object of the present thesis. A computer program produced within the context of this work can, based on an adapted bottom-up model, be used to analyze and predict the energy demand in the supply area of a medium-sized electric utility. Elektra Birseck Muenchenstein was included in the investigation as a representative medium-sized electric utility, and it provided the basis for a supply area. Current energy demand was depicted with a bottom-up approach and different scenarios of future development were calculated using a prognosis horizon of 30 years. For the market segmentation all consumer sectors had to be considered in detail. In addition, 'regionality', 'substitution' and 'customer proximity' factors had to be illustrated in the model, i.e. the regional development in the supply area, the substitution of energy sources -above all natural gas -and the detailed view of large, individual customers. The choice of a bottom-up approach created a demand for a large quantity of data, not all of which were available or could be produced. An additional crucial capability of the computer simulation was the comparison of assumptions and results of the prognoses. The users needed to be able to consider multiple future eventualities if they were to play out different scenarios to the end. Fulfilling these partly divergent criteria in the structural definition of the energy demand model was one of the large challenges of this work. The result of the dissertation is a differentiated prognosis instrument for the supply area of an electric utility. The structure of the suggested solution is

Getting Help From Others: The Effects of Demand and Supply

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Objectives. This article investigates whether the help with care needs that is received from others depends on the potential supply of family helpers. Methods. Data from the first round of survey data collected in the National Health and Aging Trends Study are used to create measures of whether help is received, the number of helpers, and the hours of help received. Regression analysis is used to relate these outcomes to indicators of the demand for and supply of helpers. Results. Analyses suggest limited evidence that the receipt of help is a supply-driven phenomenon. Although the measures of child–caregiver supply are not associated with a binary indicator of help received, caregiver-supply factors are associated with the number of helpers and the total hours of help received. Discussion. Findings on the total number of helpers and total hours of care have implications for the division of care labor within families and between families and nonfamily members. Foreseeable trends in the demand for and the supply of help suggest further evolution in patterns of elders’ receipt of help with care needs. Even if those with needs for care continue to have their needs addressed by one or more helpers, the number of helpers, and the aggregate amount of help they provide, is likely to undergo adjustment in response to changing family patterns. PMID:25342824

Achieving low effluent NO3-N and TN concentrations in low influent chemical oxygen demand (COD) to total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) ratio without using external carbon source

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Jiashun; Oleyiblo, Oloche James; Xue, Zhaoxia; Otache, Y. Martins; Feng, Qian

2015-07-01

Two mathematical models were used to optimize the performance of a full-scale biological nutrient removal (BNR) activated treatment plant, a plug-flow bioreactors operated in a 3-stage phoredox process configuration, anaerobic anoxic oxic (A2/O). The ASM2d implemented on the platform of WEST2011 software and the BioWin activated sludge/anaerobic digestion (AS/AD) models were used in this study with the aim of consistently achieving the designed effluent criteria at a low operational cost. Four ASM2d parameters (the reduction factor for denitrification , the maximum growth rate of heterotrophs (µH), the rate constant for stored polyphosphates in PAOs ( q pp), and the hydrolysis rate constant ( k h)) were adjusted. Whereas three BioWin parameters (aerobic decay rate ( b H), heterotrophic dissolved oxygen (DO) half saturation ( K OA), and Y P/acetic) were adjusted. Calibration of the two models was successful; both models have average relative deviations (ARD) less than 10% for all the output variables. Low effluent concentrations of nitrate nitrogen (N-NO3), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) were achieved in a full-scale BNR treatment plant having low influent chemical oxygen demand (COD) to total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) ratio (COD/TKN). The effluent total nitrogen and nitrate nitrogen concentrations were improved by 50% and energy consumption was reduced by approximately 25%, which was accomplished by converting the two-pass aerobic compartment of the plug-flow bioreactor to anoxic reactors and being operated in an alternating mode. Findings in this work are helpful in improving the operation of wastewater treatment plant while eliminating the cost of external carbon source and reducing energy consumption.

Tobacco-free economy: A SAM-based multiplier model to quantify the impact of changes in tobacco demand in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Husain, Muhammad Jami; Khondker, Bazlul Haque

2016-01-01

In Bangladesh, where tobacco use is pervasive, reducing tobacco use is economically beneficial. This paper uses the latest Bangladesh social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier model to quantify the economy-wide impact of demand-driven changes in tobacco cultivation, bidi industries, and cigarette industries. First, we compute various income multiplier values (i.e. backward linkages) for all production activities in the economy to quantify the impact of changes in demand for the corresponding products on gross output for 86 activities, demand for 86 commodities, returns to four factors of production, and income for eight household groups. Next, we rank tobacco production activities by income multiplier values relative to other sectors. Finally, we present three hypothetical 'tobacco-free economy' scenarios by diverting demand from tobacco products into other sectors of the economy and quantifying the economy-wide impact. The simulation exercises with three different tobacco-free scenarios show that, compared to the baseline values, total sectoral output increases by 0.92%, 1.3%, and 0.75%. The corresponding increases in the total factor returns (i.e. GDP) are 1.57%, 1.75%, and 1.75%. Similarly, total household income increases by 1.40%, 1.58%, and 1.55%.

EOQ model for perishable products with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price

Science.gov (United States)

Santhi, G.; Karthikeyan, K.

2017-11-01

In this article we introduce an economic order quantity model for perishable products like vegetables, fruits, milk, flowers, meat, etc.,with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price. Here we consider the demand is depending on selling price and deterioration rate is constant. Here we developed mathematical model to determine optimal discounton the unit selling price to maximize total profit. Numerical examples are given for illustrated.

Modulation of Total Sleep Time by Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS).

Science.gov (United States)

Frase, Lukas; Piosczyk, Hannah; Zittel, Sulamith; Jahn, Friederike; Selhausen, Peter; Krone, Lukas; Feige, Bernd; Mainberger, Florian; Maier, Jonathan G; Kuhn, Marion; Klöppel, Stefan; Normann, Claus; Sterr, Annette; Spiegelhalder, Kai; Riemann, Dieter; Nitsche, Michael A; Nissen, Christoph

2016-09-01

Arousal and sleep are fundamental physiological processes, and their modulation is of high clinical significance. This study tested the hypothesis that total sleep time (TST) in humans can be modulated by the non-invasive brain stimulation technique transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) targeting a 'top-down' cortico-thalamic pathway of sleep-wake regulation. Nineteen healthy participants underwent a within-subject, repeated-measures protocol across five nights in the sleep laboratory with polysomnographic monitoring (adaptation, baseline, three experimental nights). tDCS was delivered via bi-frontal target electrodes and bi-parietal return electrodes before sleep (anodal 'activation', cathodal 'deactivation', and sham stimulation). Bi-frontal anodal stimulation significantly decreased TST, compared with cathodal and sham stimulation. This effect was location specific. Bi-frontal cathodal stimulation did not significantly increase TST, potentially due to ceiling effects in good sleepers. Exploratory resting-state EEG analyses before and after the tDCS protocols were consistent with the notion of increased cortical arousal after anodal stimulation and decreased cortical arousal after cathodal stimulation. The study provides proof-of-concept that TST can be decreased by non-invasive bi-frontal anodal tDCS in healthy humans. Further elucidating the 'top-down' pathway of sleep-wake regulation is expected to increase knowledge on the fundamentals of sleep-wake regulation and to contribute to the development of novel treatments for clinical conditions of disturbed arousal and sleep.

China’s rising hydropower demand challenges water sector

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Junguo; Zhao, Dandan; Gerbens-Leenes, P. W.; Guan, Dabo

2015-01-01

Demand for hydropower is increasing, yet the water footprints (WFs) of reservoirs and hydropower, and their contributions to water scarcity, are poorly understood. Here, we calculate reservoir WFs (freshwater that evaporates from reservoirs) and hydropower WFs (the WF of hydroelectricity) in China based on data from 875 representative reservoirs (209 with power plants). In 2010, the reservoir WF totaled 27.9 × 109 m3 (Gm3), or 22% of China’s total water consumption. Ignoring the reservoir WF seriously underestimates human water appropriation. The reservoir WF associated with industrial, domestic and agricultural WFs caused water scarcity in 6 of the 10 major Chinese river basins from 2 to 12 months annually. The hydropower WF was 6.6 Gm3 yr−1 or 3.6 m3 of water to produce a GJ (109 J) of electricity. Hydropower is a water intensive energy carrier. As a response to global climate change, the Chinese government has promoted a further increase in hydropower energy by 70% by 2020 compared to 2012. This energy policy imposes pressure on available freshwater resources and increases water scarcity. The water-energy nexus requires strategic and coordinated implementations of hydropower development among geographical regions, as well as trade-off analysis between rising energy demand and water use sustainability. PMID:26158871

Burnout and engagement at work as a function of demands and control

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Demerouti, E.; Bakker, A.B.; Jonge, J. de; Janssen, P.P.M.; Schaufeli, W.B.

2001-01-01

Objectives The present study was designed to test the demand-control model using indicators of both health impairment and active learning or motivation. Methods A total of 381 insurance company employees participated in the study. Discriminant analysis was used to examine the relationship between

Energy demand for materials in an international context.

Science.gov (United States)

Worrell, Ernst; Carreon, Jesus Rosales

2017-06-13

Materials are everywhere and have determined society. The rapid increase in consumption of materials has led to an increase in the use of energy and release of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing emissions in material-producing industries is a key challenge. If all of industry switched to current best practices, the energy-efficiency improvement potential would be between 20% and 35% for most sectors. While these are considerable potentials, especially for sectors that have historically paid a lot of attention to energy-efficiency improvement, realization of these potentials under current 'business as usual' conditions is slow due to a large variety of barriers and limited efforts by industry and governments around the world. Importantly, the potentials are not sufficient to achieve the deep reductions in carbon emissions that will be necessary to stay within the climate boundaries as agreed in the 2015 Paris Conference of Parties. Other opportunities need to be included in the menu of options to mitigate GHG emissions. It is essential to develop integrated policies combining energy efficiency, renewable energy and material efficiency and material demand reduction, offering the most economically attractive way to realize deep reductions in carbon emissions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Gasoline demand in Europe. New insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pock, Markus

2010-01-01

This study utilizes a panel data set from 14 European countries over the period 1990-2004 to estimate a dynamic model specification for gasoline demand. Previous studies estimating gasoline consumption per total passenger cars ignore the recent increase in the number of diesel cars in most European countries leading to biased elasticity estimates. We apply several common dynamic panel estimators to our small sample. Results show that specifications neglecting the share of diesel cars overestimate short-run income, price and car ownership elasticities. It appears that the results of standard pooled estimators are more reliable than common IV/GMM estimators applied to our small data set. (author)

Gasoline demand in Europe. New insights

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pock, Markus [Department of Economics and Finance, HealthEcon IHS - Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna Stumpergasse 56, 1060 Vienna (Austria)

2010-01-15

This study utilizes a panel data set from 14 European countries over the period 1990-2004 to estimate a dynamic model specification for gasoline demand. Previous studies estimating gasoline consumption per total passenger cars ignore the recent increase in the number of diesel cars in most European countries leading to biased elasticity estimates. We apply several common dynamic panel estimators to our small sample. Results show that specifications neglecting the share of diesel cars overestimate short-run income, price and car ownership elasticities. It appears that the results of standard pooled estimators are more reliable than common IV/GMM estimators applied to our small data set. (author)

Investigation of the process energy demand in polymer extrusion: A brief review and an experimental study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abeykoon, Chamil; Kelly, Adrian L.; Brown, Elaine C.; Vera-Sorroche, Javier; Coates, Phil D.; Harkin-Jones, Eileen; Howell, Ken B.; Deng, Jing; Li, Kang; Price, Mark

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Energy consumption and losses in polymer extrusion are discussed. • This compares energy consumption in polymer extrusion at different conditions. • The role of power factor on energy efficiency in polymer extrusion is explored. • Empirical models on extruder energy consumption are provided. • Computer modelling of energy consumption of polymer extrusion is performed. - Abstract: Extrusion is one of the fundamental production methods in the polymer processing industry and is used in the production of a large number of commodities in a diverse industrial sector. Being an energy intensive production method, process energy efficiency is one of the major concerns and the selection of the most energy efficient processing conditions is a key to reducing operating costs. Usually, extruders consume energy through the drive motor, barrel heaters, cooling fans, cooling water pumps, gear pumps, etc. Typically the drive motor is the largest energy consuming device in an extruder while barrel/die heaters are responsible for the second largest energy demand. This study is focused on investigating the total energy demand of an extrusion plant under various processing conditions while identifying ways to optimise the energy efficiency. Initially, a review was carried out on the monitoring and modelling of the energy consumption in polymer extrusion. Also, the power factor, energy demand and losses of a typical extrusion plant were discussed in detail. The mass throughput, total energy consumption and power factor of an extruder were experimentally observed over different processing conditions and the total extruder energy demand was modelled empirically and also using a commercially available extrusion simulation software. The experimental results show that extruder energy demand is heavily coupled between the machine, material and process parameters. The total power predicted by the simulation software exhibits a lagging offset compared with the

Enabling technologies for industrial energy demand management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dyer, Caroline H.; Hammond, Geoffrey P.; Jones, Craig I.; McKenna, Russell C.

2008-01-01

This state-of-science review sets out to provide an indicative assessment of enabling technologies for reducing UK industrial energy demand and carbon emissions to 2050. In the short term, i.e. the period that will rely on current or existing technologies, the road map and priorities are clear. A variety of available technologies will lead to energy demand reduction in industrial processes, boiler operation, compressed air usage, electric motor efficiency, heating and lighting, and ancillary uses such as transport. The prospects for the commercial exploitation of innovative technologies by the middle of the 21st century are more speculative. Emphasis is therefore placed on the range of technology assessment methods that are likely to provide policy makers with a guide to progress in the development of high-temperature processes, improved materials, process integration and intensification, and improved industrial process control and monitoring. Key among the appraisal methods applicable to the energy sector is thermodynamic analysis, making use of energy, exergy and 'exergoeconomic' techniques. Technical and economic barriers will limit the improvement potential to perhaps a 30% cut in industrial energy use, which would make a significant contribution to reducing energy demand and carbon emissions in UK industry. Non-technological drivers for, and barriers to, the take-up of innovative, low-carbon energy technologies for industry are also outlined

A supply-demand model of fetal energy sufficiency predicts lipid profiles in male but not female Filipino adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuzawa, C W; Adair, L S

2004-03-01

To test the hypothesis that the balance between fetal nutritional demand and maternal nutritional supply during pregnancy will predict lipid profiles in offspring measured in adolescence. A total of 296 male and 307 female Filipino offspring (aged 14-16 y) and mothers enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort study (begun in 1983-84) had lipid profiles measured. Data on maternal height (as a proxy for offspring growth potential and thus fetal nutritional demand) and third trimester maternal arm fat area (as a proxy for maternal supply) were used to create four groups hypothesized to reflect a gradient of fetal energy sufficiency. As fetal energy sufficiency increased among males, there was a decrease in total cholesterol (TC) (Psupply-demand model did not predict any lipid outcome or clinical risk criteria. Our findings in males support the hypothesis that the balance between fetal nutritional demand and maternal nutritional supply has implications for future lipid profiles. The lack of significant associations in females adds to mounting evidence for sex differences in lipid metabolism programming, and may reflect sex differences in fetal nutritional demand. The National Science Foundation, the Mellon Foundation, the Nestle Foundation, and the Emory University Internationalization Program.

Oil demand continues to grow in the U.S. and worldwide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tippee, B.; Beck, R.J.

1995-01-01

Rising oil consumption is challenging the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries production quota--but not the group's ability to meet demand. In the second half of 1995, the oil market will continue to need more oil from OPEC members than the group claims to be willing to produce with its quota at 24.52 million b/d. If the quota really limited supply, ingredients would be in place for a significant price hike. Growth in a non-OPEC production intensities temptations on OPEC members to cheat on quotas and has become a key factor in the market. OPEC producers have seen that if they don't meet incremental demand at the current price, other producers will. OPEC eventually will have to raise its quota or acknowledge that the artificial production limit lacks meaning. At present, the only real limit to supply is production capacity, which remains in excess relative to demand and which has demonstrated its ability to grow both within and outside of OPEC when prices rise. The paper discusses worldwide trends, pressures on OPEC, world crude prices, US prices, natural gas prices, US energy demand, natural gas use, gas supply, US demand for petroleum products, imports, and inventories

Mapping Urban Heat Demand with the Use of GIS-Based Tools

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Artur Wyrwa

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This article presents a bottom-up approach for calculation of the useful heat demand for space heating and hot water preparation using geo-referenced datasets for buildings at the city level. This geographic information system (GIS based approach was applied in the case study for the city of Krakow, where on the one hand the district heat network is well developed, while on the other hand there are still substantial number of buildings burning solid fuels in individual boilers and stoves, causing air pollution. The calculated heat demand was aggregated in the grid with 100 m × 100 m spatial resolution to deliver the heat map depicting the current situation for 21 buildings types. The results show that the residential buildings, in particular one- and multi-family buildings, have the highest share in overall demand for heat. By combining the results with location of the district heat (DH network, the potential areas in its close vicinity that have sufficient heat demand density for developing the net were pointed out. Future evolution in heat demand for space heating in one-family houses was evaluated with the use of deterministic method employing building stock model. The study lays a foundation for planning the development of the heating system at the city level.

An Analysis on change of household electricity demand pattern

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Na, In Gang [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-01-01

The object of this study is to analyze the behavioral pattern change of household electricity demand. Through the cross section analysis using materials from the energy total research report, the change in income elasticity of household electricity demand was studied. In this study, two methodologies were used. Firstly, it was shown that the effect of an income variable was very significant with a positive value in simultaneous equations model using exponential equations of electrical appliances holding. Cross section income effect showed a various distribution according to the season or income level. Overall, it was calculated at 0.111 when the appliances are fixed and 0.432 when even appliances are changed. Secondly, using a choice convenient correction model, it is resulted that lambda, the choice convenient correction factor, has a positive value and is statistically significant. In 1996, income elasticity of electricity demand for households with air-conditioning was 0.305 and for households without air-conditioning was 0.172. Income elasticity of households with air-conditioning is increasing as time goes by while income elasticity of households without air-conditioning is decreasing. (author). 32 refs., 35 tabs.

Changes and events in uranium deposit development, exploration, resources, production and the world supply-demand relationship. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-09-01

This report consists of the proceedings of the Technical Committee Meeting on Recent Changes and Events in Uranium Deposit Development, Exploration, Resources, Production and the World Supply/Demand Relationship, held in co-operation with the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) in Kiev, Ukraine, from 22 to 26 May 1995. Some of the information from this meeting was also used in preparation of the 1995 edition of ''Uranium - Resources, Production and Demand'' a joint report by the OECD/NEA and the IAEA. At the Beginning of 1995 there were 432 nuclear power plants in operation with a combined electricity generating capacity of 340 GW(e). This represents nearly a 100% increase over the last decade. In 1995 over 2228 TW·h of electricity were generated, equivalent to about 17% of the world's total electricity. To achieve this, about 61,000 t U were required as nuclear fuel. For about a decade and a half uranium production and related activities have been decreasing because of declining uranium prices. For many participants in the nuclear industry there has been little interest in uranium supply because of the oversupplied market condition. The declining production led to the development of a supply and demand balance were production is currently meeting a little over 50% of reactor requirements and the excess inventory is being rapidly drawn down. This very unstable relationship has resulted in great uncertainty about the future supply or uranium. One of the objectives of this Technical Committee meeting was to bring together specialists in the field of uranium supply and demand to collect information on new developments. This helps provide a better understanding of the current situation, as well as providing information to plan for the future. Refs, figs, tabs

Validity and Reliability of the Upper Extremity Work Demands Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Nora W; Berduszek, Redmar J; Dijkstra, Pieter U; van der Sluis, Corry K

2017-12-01

Purpose To evaluate validity and reliability of the upper extremity work demands (UEWD) scale. Methods Participants from different levels of physical work demands, based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles categories, were included. A historical database of 74 workers was added for factor analysis. Criterion validity was evaluated by comparing observed and self-reported UEWD scores. To assess structural validity, a factor analysis was executed. For reliability, the difference between two self-reported UEWD scores, the smallest detectable change (SDC), test-retest reliability and internal consistency were determined. Results Fifty-four participants were observed at work and 51 of them filled in the UEWD twice with a mean interval of 16.6 days (SD 3.3, range = 10-25 days). Criterion validity of the UEWD scale was moderate (r = .44, p = .001). Factor analysis revealed that 'force and posture' and 'repetition' subscales could be distinguished with Cronbach's alpha of .79 and .84, respectively. Reliability was good; there was no significant difference between repeated measurements. An SDC of 5.0 was found. Test-retest reliability was good (intraclass correlation coefficient for agreement = .84) and all item-total correlations were >.30. There were two pairs of highly related items. Conclusion Reliability of the UEWD scale was good, but criterion validity was moderate. Based on current results, a modified UEWD scale (2 items removed, 1 item reworded, divided into 2 subscales) was proposed. Since observation appeared to be an inappropriate gold standard, we advise to investigate other types of validity, such as construct validity, in further research.

Vendor-buyer ordering policy when demand is trapezoidal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Digeshkumar B. Shah

2012-10-01

Full Text Available A joint vendor-buyer strategy is analyzed which is beneficial to both the players in the supply chain. The demand is assumed to be trapezoidal. It is established numerically that the joint venture decreases the total cost of the supply chain when compared with the independent decision of the buyer. To entice the buyer to order more units, a permissible credit period is offered by the vendor to the buyer. A negotiation factor is incorporated to share the cost savings.

Measurement of total cross sections for neutrino and antineutrino charged-current interactions in hydrogen and neon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aderholz, M.; Schmitz, N.; Wittek, W.; Corrigan, G.; Myatt, G.; Radojicic, D.; Shotton, P.N.; Towers, S.J.; Miller, D.B.; Mobayyen, M.M.; Morrison, D.R.O.; Schmid, P.; Barnham, K.W.J.; Clayton, E.F.; Hamisi, F.; Baton, J.P.; Lagraa, M.; Bullock, F.W.; Fitch, P.J.; Sansum, R.A.; Coghen, T.; Cooper-Sarkar, A.M.; Guy, J.G.; Kasper, P.; Venus, W.; Middleton, R.P.; O'Neale, S.W.; Varvell, K.; Simopoulou, E.; Vayaki, A.; Vallee, C.; Wells, J.

1986-01-01

BEBC filled in turn with hydrogen, and with a neon-hydrogen mixture, was exposed to the CERN SPS wide band neutrino and antineutrino beams. The ratios of the charged-current cross sections per nucleon, sigma(νH 2 )/sigma(νNe) and sigma(anti νH 2 )/sigma(anti νNe), between 20 and 300 GeV were found to be 0.656+-0.020 and 1.425+-0.052, respectively. Multiplying these ratios by the revised cross sections in neon, sigma(νNe)/E=(0.723+-0.038)x10 -38 cm 2 /GeV per nucleon and sigma(anti νNe)/E=(0.351+-0.019)x10 -38 cm 2 /GeV per nucleon, and their ratio, sigma(anti νNe)/sigma(νNe)=0.485+-0.020, yields values for the total charged-current cross sections on protons, sigma(νp)/E and sigma(anti νp)/E, of (0.474+-0.029)x10 -38 cm 2 /GeV and (0.500+-0.032)x10 -38 cm 2 /GeV, respectively, and a value for the ratio sigma(anti νp)/sigma(νp) of 1.053+-0.066. (orig.)

Integrated Mode Choice, Small Aircraft Demand, and Airport Operations Model User's Guide

Science.gov (United States)

Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

2004-01-01