Transient risk factors of acute occupational injuries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østerlund, Anna H; Lander, Flemming; Nielsen, Kent

2017-01-01

Objectives The objectives of this study were to (i) identify transient risk factors of occupational injuries and (ii) determine if the risk varies with age, injury severity, job task, and industry risk level. Method A case-crossover design was used to examine the effect of seven specific transient...... risk factors (time pressure, disagreement with someone, feeling sick, being distracted by someone, non-routine task, altered surroundings, and broken machinery and materials) for occupational injuries. In the study, 1693 patients with occupational injuries were recruited from a total of 4002...... in relation to sex, age, job task, industry risk level, or injury severity. Conclusion Use of a case-crossover design identified several worker-related transient risk factors (time pressure, feeling sick, being distracted by someone) that led to significantly increased risks for occupational injuries...

Computing Conditional VaR using Time-varying CopulasComputing Conditional VaR using Time-varying Copulas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes

2005-12-01

Full Text Available It is now widespread the use of Value-at-Risk (VaR as a canonical measure at risk. Most accurate VaR measures make use of some volatility model such as GARCH-type models. However, the pattern of volatility dynamic of a portfolio follows from the (univariate behavior of the risk assets, as well as from the type and strength of the associations among them. Moreover, the dependence structure among the components may change conditionally t past observations. Some papers have attempted to model this characteristic by assuming a multivariate GARCH model, or by considering the conditional correlation coefficient, or by incorporating some possibility for switches in regimes. In this paper we address this problem using time-varying copulas. Our modeling strategy allows for the margins to follow some FIGARCH type model while the copula dependence structure changes over time.

Gossip Consensus Algorithm Based on Time-Varying Influence Factors and Weakly Connected Graph for Opinion Evolution in Social Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lingyun Li

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We provide a new gossip algorithm to investigate the problem of opinion consensus with the time-varying influence factors and weakly connected graph among multiple agents. What is more, we discuss not only the effect of the time-varying factors and the randomized topological structure but also the spread of misinformation and communication constrains described by probabilistic quantized communication in the social network. Under the underlying weakly connected graph, we first denote that all opinion states converge to a stochastic consensus almost surely; that is, our algorithm indeed achieves the consensus with probability one. Furthermore, our results show that the mean of all the opinion states converges to the average of the initial states when time-varying influence factors satisfy some conditions. Finally, we give a result about the square mean error between the dynamic opinion states and the benchmark without quantized communication.

Pemodelan Markov Switching Dengan Time-varying Transition Probability

OpenAIRE

Savitri, Anggita Puri; Warsito, Budi; Rahmawati, Rita

2016-01-01

Exchange rate or currency is an economic variable which reflects country's state of economy. It fluctuates over time because of its ability to switch the condition or regime caused by economic and political factors. The changes in the exchange rate are depreciation and appreciation. Therefore, it could be modeled using Markov Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probability which observe the conditional changes and use information variable. From this model, time-varying transition probabili...

No Decreased Risk of Gastrointestinal Cancers in Users of Metformin in The Netherlands; A Time-Varying Analysis of Metformin Exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Jong, Roy G; Burden, Andrea M; de Kort, Sander; van Herk-Sukel, Myrthe P; Vissers, Pauline A; Janssen, Paddy K; Haak, Harm R; Masclee, Ad A; de Vries, Frank; Janssen-Heijnen, Maryska L

2017-01-01

Previous studies on metformin use and gastrointestinal (GI) cancer risk have yielded inconclusive results on metformin's chemoprotective effects. We aimed to evaluate GI cancer risk in users of metformin in The Netherlands using a time-varying approach in a large population-based database. A cohort

Epidemiology and risk factors of schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Janoutová, Jana; Janácková, Petra; Serý, Omar; Zeman, Tomás; Ambroz, Petr; Kovalová, Martina; Varechová, Katerina; Hosák, Ladislav; Jirík, Vitezslav; Janout, Vladimír

2016-01-01

Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder that affects approximately one percent of the general population. The pathogenesis of schizophrenia is influenced by many risk factors, both environmental and genetic. The environmental factors include the date of birth, place of birth and seasonal effects, infectious diseases, complications during pregnancy and delivery, substance abuse and stress. At the present time, in addition to environmental factors, genetic factors are assumed to play a role in the development of the schizophrenia. The heritability of schizo- phrenia is up to 80%. If one parent suffers from the condition, the probability that it will be passed down to the offspring is 13%. If it is present in both parents, the risk is more than 20%. The opinions are varied as to the risk factors affecting the development of schizophrenia. Knowing these factors may greatly contribute to prevention of the condition.

Risk factors, mortality, and timing of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with left ventricular assist devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Frontera, Jennifer A; Starling, Randall; Cho, Sung-Min; Nowacki, Amy S; Uchino, Ken; Hussain, M Shazam; Mountis, Maria; Moazami, Nader

2017-06-01

Stroke is a major cause of mortality after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement. Prospectively collected data of patients with HeartMate II (n = 332) and HeartWare (n = 70) LVADs from October 21, 2004, to May 19, 2015, were reviewed. Predictors of early (during index hospitalization) and late (post-discharge) ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and association of stroke subtypes with mortality were assessed. Of 402 patients, 83 strokes occurred in 69 patients (17%; 0.14 events per patient-year [EPPY]): early ischemic stroke in 18/402 (4%; 0.03 EPPY), early hemorrhagic stroke in 11/402 (3%; 0.02 EPPY), late ischemic stroke in 25/402 (6%; 0.04 EPPY) and late hemorrhagic stroke in 29/402 (7%; 0.05 EPPY). Risk of stroke and death among patients with stroke was bimodal with highest risks immediately post-implant and increasing again 9-12 months later. Risk of death declined over time in patients without stroke. Modifiable stroke risk factors varied according to timing and stroke type, including tobacco use, bacteremia, pump thrombosis, pump infection, and hypertension (all p hemorrhagic stroke (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-17.8, p = 0.04), late ischemic stroke (aOR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1-9.0, p = 0.03), and late hemorrhagic stroke (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.5-9.2, p = 0.005) predicted death, whereas early ischemic stroke did not. Stroke is a leading cause and predictor of death in patients with LVADs. Risk of stroke and death among patients with stroke is bimodal, with highest risk at time of implant and increasing risk again after 9-12 months. Management of modifiable risk factors may reduce stroke and mortality rates. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-varying BRDFs.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Bo; Sunkavalli, Kalyan; Ramamoorthi, Ravi; Belhumeur, Peter N; Nayar, Shree K

2007-01-01

The properties of virtually all real-world materials change with time, causing their bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDFs) to be time varying. However, none of the existing BRDF models and databases take time variation into consideration; they represent the appearance of a material at a single time instance. In this paper, we address the acquisition, analysis, modeling, and rendering of a wide range of time-varying BRDFs (TVBRDFs). We have developed an acquisition system that is capable of sampling a material's BRDF at multiple time instances, with each time sample acquired within 36 sec. We have used this acquisition system to measure the BRDFs of a wide range of time-varying phenomena, which include the drying of various types of paints (watercolor, spray, and oil), the drying of wet rough surfaces (cement, plaster, and fabrics), the accumulation of dusts (household and joint compound) on surfaces, and the melting of materials (chocolate). Analytic BRDF functions are fit to these measurements and the model parameters' variations with time are analyzed. Each category exhibits interesting and sometimes nonintuitive parameter trends. These parameter trends are then used to develop analytic TVBRDF models. The analytic TVBRDF models enable us to apply effects such as paint drying and dust accumulation to arbitrary surfaces and novel materials.

Optimal routing of hazardous substances in time-varying, stochastic transportation networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, A.L.; Miller-Hooks, E.; Mahmassani, H.S.

1998-07-01

This report is concerned with the selection of routes in a network along which to transport hazardous substances, taking into consideration several key factors pertaining to the cost of transport and the risk of population exposure in the event of an accident. Furthermore, the fact that travel time and the risk measures are not constant over time is explicitly recognized in the routing decisions. Existing approaches typically assume static conditions, possibly resulting in inefficient route selection and unnecessary risk exposure. The report described the application of recent advances in network analysis methodologies to the problem of routing hazardous substances. Several specific problem formulations are presented, reflecting different degrees of risk aversion on the part of the decision-maker, as well as different possible operational scenarios. All procedures explicitly consider travel times and travel costs (including risk measures) to be stochastic time-varying quantities. The procedures include both exact algorithms, which may require extensive computational effort in some situations, as well as more efficient heuristics that may not guarantee a Pareto-optimal solution. All procedures are systematically illustrated for an example application using the Texas highway network, for both normal and incident condition scenarios. The application illustrates the trade-offs between the information obtained in the solution and computational efficiency, and highlights the benefits of incorporating these procedures in a decision-support system for hazardous substance shipment routing decisions

Time-related factors in the study of risks in animals and humans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.; Park, J.F.; Buschbom, R.L.

1989-01-01

Data from epidemiological studies of humans exposed to potentially harmful substances are usually analyzed using methods that account for the dependence of risks on time-related factors such as age and follow-up period. Recently developed statistical procedures allow modeling of the age-specific risks as a function of dose as well as factors such as age at exposure, time since exposure, exposure duration, and dose rate. These procedures potentially allow more rigorous inferences and clearer understanding of the patterns of risk observed in epidemiological studies than has been available in the past. Statistical procedures that consider time-related factors can also be applied to laboratory animal data, providing information that is useful for the problems involved in extrapolating from animal studies to humans. By applying such procedures to data on exposure to the same substance in different species (including humans) or to different substances in the same species, better understanding of the relationship of risks across species and across substances can be achieved. In addition, such statistical procedures allow appropriate treatment of exposure that is accumulated over time and lead to improved understanding of patterns of risk over time. The approach is illustrated using data from a lifespan study of beagle dogs exposed to inhaled Pu

Time-related factors in the study of risks in animals and man

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.; Park, J.F.; Buschbom, R.L.

1988-01-01

Data from epidemiological studies of humans exposed to potentially harmful substances are usually analyzed using methods that account for the dependence of risks on time-related factors such as age and follow-up period. Recently developed statistical procedures allow modeling of the age-specific risks as a function of dose as well as factors such as age at exposure, time from exposure, exposure duration, and dose rate. These procedures potentially allow more rigorous inferences and clearer understanding of the patterns of risks observed in epidemiological studies than has been available in the past. Statistical procedures that consider time-related factors can also be applied to laboratory animal data, and provide information that is useful for the problem of extrapolating from animal studies to humans. By applying such procedures to data on exposure to the same substance in different species (including humans) or to different substances in the same species, a better understanding of the relationship of risks across species and across substances can be achieved. In addition, such statistical procedures allow appropriate treatment of exposure that is accumulated over time and lead to improved understanding of patterns of risk over time. The approach is illustrated using data from a lifespan study of beagle dogs exposed to inhaled plutonium. 12 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

Identification of Time-Varying Pilot Control Behavior in Multi-Axis Control Tasks

Science.gov (United States)

Zaal, Peter M. T.; Sweet, Barbara T.

2012-01-01

Recent developments in fly-by-wire control architectures for rotorcraft have introduced new interest in the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior in multi-axis control tasks. In this paper a maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of a pilot model with time-dependent sigmoid functions to characterize time-varying human control behavior. An experiment was performed by 9 general aviation pilots who had to perform a simultaneous roll and pitch control task with time-varying aircraft dynamics. In 8 different conditions, the axis containing the time-varying dynamics and the growth factor of the dynamics were varied, allowing for an analysis of the performance of the estimation method when estimating time-dependent parameter functions. In addition, a detailed analysis of pilots adaptation to the time-varying aircraft dynamics in both the roll and pitch axes could be performed. Pilot control behavior in both axes was significantly affected by the time-varying aircraft dynamics in roll and pitch, and by the growth factor. The main effect was found in the axis that contained the time-varying dynamics. However, pilot control behavior also changed over time in the axis not containing the time-varying aircraft dynamics. This indicates that some cross coupling exists in the perception and control processes between the roll and pitch axes.

Market Risk in Demutualised Self-Listed Stock Exchanges: An International Analysis of Selected Time-Varying Betas

OpenAIRE

Andrew Worthington; Helen Higgs

2005-01-01

This paper examines market risk in four demutualised and self-listed stock exchanges: the Australian Stock Exchange, the Deutsche Börse, the London Stock Exchange and the Singapore Stock Exchange. Daily company and MSCI index returns provide the respective asset and market portfolio data. A bivariate MA-GARCH model is used to estimate time-varying betas for each exchange from listing until 7 June 2005. While the results indicate significant beta volatility, unit root tests show the betas to b...

Time-varying causal network of the Korean financial system based on firm-specific risk premiums

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jae Wook; Ko, Bonggyun; Cho, Poongjin; Chang, Woojin

2016-09-01

The aim of this paper is to investigate the Korean financial system based on time-varying causal network. We discover many stylized facts by utilizing the firm-specific risk premiums for measuring the causality direction from a firm to firm. At first, we discover that the interconnectedness of causal network is affected by the outbreak of financial events; the co-movement of firm-specific risk premium is strengthened after each positive event, and vice versa. Secondly, we find that the major sector of the Korean financial system is the Depositories, and the financial reform in June-2011 achieves its purpose by weakening the power of risk-spillovers of Broker-Dealers. Thirdly, we identify that the causal network is a small-world network with scale-free topology where the power-law exponents of out-Degree and negative event are more significant than those of in-Degree and positive event. Lastly, we discuss that the current aspects of causal network are closely related to the long-term future scenario of the KOSPI Composite index where the direction and stability are significantly affected by the power of risk-spillovers and the power-law exponents of degree distributions, respectively.

Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

2018-08-01

This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Holographic cinematography of time-varying reflecting and time-varying phase objects using a Nd:YAG laser

Science.gov (United States)

Decker, A. J.

1982-01-01

The use of a Nd:YAG laser to record holographic motion pictures of time-varying reflecting objects and time-varying phase objects is discussed. Sample frames from both types of holographic motion pictures are presented. The holographic system discussed is intended for three-dimensional flow visualization of the time-varying flows that occur in jet-engine components.

A new perspective on human health risk assessment: Development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siirila, Erica R.; Maxwell, Reed M.

2012-01-01

We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: ► A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. ► TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. ► Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show sensitivity in TDRA results. ► In the TDRA results, individual susceptibility

A new perspective on human health risk assessment: Development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siirila, Erica R., E-mail: esiirila@mymail.mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Maxwell, Reed M., E-mail: rmaxwell@mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Integrated Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC), Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States)

2012-08-01

We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show

Control of the tokamak safety factor profile with time-varying constraints using MPC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maljaars, E.; Felici, F.; De Baar, M.R.; Geelen, P.J.M.; Steinbuch, M.; Van Dongen, J.; Hogeweij, G.M.D.

2015-01-01

A controller is designed for the tokamak safety factor profile that takes real-time-varying operational and physics limits into account. This so-called model predictive controller (MPC) employs a prediction model in order to compute optimal control inputs that satisfy the given limits. The use of linearized models around a reference trajectory results in a quadratic programming problem that can easily be solved online. The performance of the controller is analysed in a set of ITER L-mode scenarios simulated with the non-linear plasma transport code RAPTOR. It is shown that the controller can reduce the tracking error due to an overestimation or underestimation of the modelled transport, while making a trade-off between residual error and amount of controller action. It is also shown that the controller can account for a sudden decrease in the available actuator power, while providing warnings ahead of time about expected violations of operational and physics limits. This controller can be extended and implemented in existing tokamaks in the near future. (paper)

Ureteric stent dwelling time: a risk factor for post-ureteroscopy sepsis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nevo, Amihay; Mano, Roy; Baniel, Jack; Lifshitz, David A

2017-07-01

To evaluate the association between stent dwelling time and sepsis after ureteroscopy, and identify risk factors for sepsis in this setting. The prospectively collected database of a single institution was queried for all patients who underwent ureteroscopy for stone extraction between 2010 and 2016. Demographic, clinical, preoperative and operative data were collected. The primary study endpoint was sepsis within 48 h of ureteroscopy. Logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors of post-ureteroscopy sepsis in the ureteroscopy cohort and specifically in patients with prior stent insertion. Between October 2010 and April 2016, 1 256 patients underwent ureteroscopy for stone extraction. Risk factors for sepsis included prior stent placement, female gender and Charlson comorbidity index. A total of 601 patients had a ureteric stent inserted before the operation and were included in the study cohort, in which the median age was 56 years, 90 patients were women (30%), and 97 patients were treated for positive preoperative urine cultures (16.1%). Postoperative sepsis, Sepsis rates after stent dwelling times of 1, 2, 3 and >3 months were 1, 4.9, 5.5 and 9.2%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, stent dwelling time, stent insertion because of sepsis, and female gender were significantly associated with post-ureteroscopy sepsis in patients with prior stent placement. Patients who undergo ureteroscopy after ureteric stent insertion have a higher risk of postoperative sepsis. Prolonged stent dwelling time, sepsis as an indication for stent insertion, and female gender are independent risk factors. Stent placement should be considered cautiously, and if inserted, ureteroscopy should be performed within 1 month. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

2006-01-01

Qualityadjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from...... time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from...

Time Factor in the Theory of Anthropogenic Risk Prediction in Complex Dynamic Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Ostreikovsky, V. A.; Shevchenko, Ye N.; Yurkov, N. K.; Kochegarov, I. I.; Grishko, A. K.

2018-01-01

The article overviews the anthropogenic risk models that take into consideration the development of different factors in time that influence the complex system. Three classes of mathematical models have been analyzed for the use in assessing the anthropogenic risk of complex dynamic systems. These models take into consideration time factor in determining the prospect of safety change of critical systems. The originality of the study is in the analysis of five time postulates in the theory of anthropogenic risk and the safety of highly important objects. It has to be stressed that the given postulates are still rarely used in practical assessment of equipment service life of critically important systems. That is why, the results of study presented in the article can be used in safety engineering and analysis of critically important complex technical systems.

Bayesian switching factor analysis for estimating time-varying functional connectivity in fMRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Taghia, Jalil; Ryali, Srikanth; Chen, Tianwen; Supekar, Kaustubh; Cai, Weidong; Menon, Vinod

2017-07-15

There is growing interest in understanding the dynamical properties of functional interactions between distributed brain regions. However, robust estimation of temporal dynamics from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data remains challenging due to limitations in extant multivariate methods for modeling time-varying functional interactions between multiple brain areas. Here, we develop a Bayesian generative model for fMRI time-series within the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs). The model is a dynamic variant of the static factor analysis model (Ghahramani and Beal, 2000). We refer to this model as Bayesian switching factor analysis (BSFA) as it integrates factor analysis into a generative HMM in a unified Bayesian framework. In BSFA, brain dynamic functional networks are represented by latent states which are learnt from the data. Crucially, BSFA is a generative model which estimates the temporal evolution of brain states and transition probabilities between states as a function of time. An attractive feature of BSFA is the automatic determination of the number of latent states via Bayesian model selection arising from penalization of excessively complex models. Key features of BSFA are validated using extensive simulations on carefully designed synthetic data. We further validate BSFA using fingerprint analysis of multisession resting-state fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our results show that modeling temporal dependencies in the generative model of BSFA results in improved fingerprinting of individual participants. Finally, we apply BSFA to elucidate the dynamic functional organization of the salience, central-executive, and default mode networks-three core neurocognitive systems with central role in cognitive and affective information processing (Menon, 2011). Across two HCP sessions, we demonstrate a high level of dynamic interactions between these networks and determine that the salience network has the highest temporal

Analytic strategies to evaluate the association of time-varying exposures to HIV-related outcomes: Alcohol consumption as an example.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Robert L; Kelso, Natalie E; Brumback, Babette A; Chen, Xinguang

2016-01-01

As persons with HIV are living longer, there is a growing need to investigate factors associated with chronic disease, rate of disease progression and survivorship. Many risk factors for this high-risk population change over time, such as participation in treatment, alcohol consumption and drug abuse. Longitudinal datasets are increasingly available, particularly clinical data that contain multiple observations of health exposures and outcomes over time. Several analytic options are available for assessment of longitudinal data; however, it can be challenging to choose the appropriate analytic method for specific combinations of research questions and types of data. The purpose of this review is to help researchers choose the appropriate methods to analyze longitudinal data, using alcohol consumption as an example of a time-varying exposure variable. When selecting the optimal analytic method, one must consider aspects of exposure (e.g. timing, pattern, and amount) and outcome (fixed or time-varying), while also addressing minimizing bias. In this article, we will describe several analytic approaches for longitudinal data, including developmental trajectory analysis, generalized estimating equations, and mixed effect models. For each analytic strategy, we describe appropriate situations to use the method and provide an example that demonstrates the use of the method. Clinical data related to alcohol consumption and HIV are used to illustrate these methods.

Time-varying value of electric energy efficiency

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mims, Natalie A.; Eckman, Tom; Goldman, Charles

2017-06-30

Electric energy efficiency resources save energy and may reduce peak demand. Historically, quantification of energy efficiency benefits has largely focused on the economic value of energy savings during the first year and lifetime of the installed measures. Due in part to the lack of publicly available research on end-use load shapes (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings) and energy savings shapes, consideration of the impact of energy efficiency on peak demand reduction (i.e., capacity savings) has been more limited. End-use load research and the hourly valuation of efficiency savings are used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity and demand response planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service. This study reviews existing literature on the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings, provides examples in four geographically diverse locations of how consideration of the time-varying value of efficiency savings impacts the calculation of power system benefits, and identifies future research needs to enhance the consideration of the time-varying value of energy efficiency in cost-effectiveness screening analysis. Findings from this study include: -The time-varying value of individual energy efficiency measures varies across the locations studied because of the physical and operational characteristics of the individual utility system (e.g., summer or winter peaking, load factor, reserve margin) as well as the time periods during which savings from measures occur. -Across the four locations studied, some of the largest capacity benefits from energy efficiency are derived from the deferral of transmission and distribution system infrastructure upgrades. However, the deferred cost of such upgrades also exhibited the greatest range

Environmental and societal influences acting on cardiovascular risk factors and disease at a population level: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Clara Kayei; Lock, Karen; Teo, Koon; Subramanian, S V; McKee, Martin; Yusuf, Salim

2009-12-01

It has long been known that cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates vary considerably among populations, across space and through time. It is now apparent that most of the attributable risk for myocardial infarction 'within' populations from across the world can be ascribed to the varying levels of a limited number of risk factors among individuals in a population. Individual risk factors (e.g. blood pressure) can be modified with resulting health gains. Yet, the persistence of large international variations in cardiovascular risk factors and resulting CVD incidence and mortality indicates that there are additional factors that apply to 'populations' that are important to understand as part of a comprehensive approach to CVD control. This article reviews the evidence on why certain populations are more at risk than others.

Zhang neural network for online solution of time-varying convex quadratic program subject to time-varying linear-equality constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Yunong; Li Zhan

2009-01-01

In this Letter, by following Zhang et al.'s method, a recurrent neural network (termed as Zhang neural network, ZNN) is developed and analyzed for solving online the time-varying convex quadratic-programming problem subject to time-varying linear-equality constraints. Different from conventional gradient-based neural networks (GNN), such a ZNN model makes full use of the time-derivative information of time-varying coefficient. The resultant ZNN model is theoretically proved to have global exponential convergence to the time-varying theoretical optimal solution of the investigated time-varying convex quadratic program. Computer-simulation results further substantiate the effectiveness, efficiency and novelty of such ZNN model and method.

PCA-based detection of damage in time-varying systems

Science.gov (United States)

Bellino, A.; Fasana, A.; Garibaldi, L.; Marchesiello, S.

2010-10-01

When performing Structural Health Monitoring, it is well known that the natural frequencies do not depend only on the damage but also on environmental conditions, such as temperature and humidity. The Principal Component Analysis is used to take this problem into account, because it allows eliminating the effect of external factors. The purpose of the present work is to show that this technique can be successfully used not only for time-invariant systems, but also for time-varying ones. Referring to the latter, one of the most studied systems which shows these characteristics is the bridge with crossing loads, such as the case of the railway bridge studied in present paper; in this case, the mass and the velocity of the train can be considered as "environmental" factors.This paper, after a brief description of the PCA method and one example of its application on time-invariant systems, presents the great potentialities of the methodology when applied to time-varying systems. The results show that this method is able to better detect the presence of damage and also to properly distinguish among different levels of crack depths.

Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Sensoy, Ahmet; Tabak, Benjamin M.

2015-10-01

This paper proposes a new efficiency index to model time-varying inefficiency in stock markets. We focus on European stock markets and show that they have different degrees of time-varying efficiency. We observe that the 2008 global financial crisis has an adverse effect on almost all EU stock markets. However, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has a significant adverse effect only on the markets in France, Spain and Greece. For the late members, joining EU does not have a uniform effect on stock market efficiency. Our results have important implications for policy makers, investors, risk managers and academics.

Risk factors for caries-free time: longitudinal study in early childhood

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Beatriz Barreto de Sousa Cabral

2017-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate time in days from the beginning of follow-up up to the development of dental caries in children under 30 months and to assess risk factors potentially affecting the development of the disease. METHODS The study population of the cohort study were children attending public, private, and charitable day care centers in Salvador, Northeastern Brazil, followed up for fourteen months. We used the multivariate Cox regression to estimate risk and Kaplan-Meier method to estimate the caries-free time. RESULTS Of the 495 children studied, 112 developed caries (22.6%. Mean caries-free time was 248.6 (SD = 96.2 days. The comparasion of curves by age group (> 24 months and children attending public day care showed more caries in a shorter period (p < 0.00. The following variables were important risk factors for increased rate of caries: district of origin (HR = 1.88, 95%CI 1.27–2.77, category of day care (HR = 3.88, 95%CI 2.04–7.38, age (HR = 1.77, 95%CI 1.15–2.74, bottle-feeding before sleep time after the age of 12 months (HR = 1.62, 95%CI 1.04–2.51, presence of active white spots (HR = 2.70, 95%CI 1.07–6.80, and living in non-masonry house (HR = 1.68, 95%CI 1.02–2.76. The highest hazard ratio (HR = 4.60, 95%CI 2.80–7.42 was found for previous caries experience. CONCLUSIONS Social variables were considered as of high risk for the development of dental caries.

Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Jong, F.C.J.M.; de Roon, F.A.

2001-01-01

We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value

Risk ON/Risk OFF: Risk-Taking Varies with Subjectively Preferred and Disliked Music.

Science.gov (United States)

Halko, Marja-Liisa; Kaustia, Markku

2015-01-01

In this paper we conduct a within-subjects experiment in which teenagers go over 256 gambles with real money gains and losses. For each risky gamble they choose whether to participate in it, or pass. Prior to this main experiment subjects identify specific songs belonging to their favorite musical genre, as well as songs representing a style they dislike. In the main experiment we vary the music playing in the background, so that each subject hears some of their favorite music, and some disliked music, alternating in blocks of 16 gambles. We find that favorite music increases risk-taking ('risk on'), and disliked music suppresses risk-taking ('risk off'), compared to a baseline of no music. Literature in psychology proposes several mechanisms by which mood affects risk-taking, but none of them fully explain the results in our setting. The results are, however, consistent with the economics notion of preference complementarity, extended to the domain of risk preference. The preference structure implied by our results is more complex than previously thought, yet realistic, and consistent with recent theoretical models. More generally, this mechanism offers a potential explanation to why risk-taking is known to change over time and across contexts.

Stagewise pseudo-value regression for time-varying effects on the cumulative incidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zöller, Daniela; Schmidtmann, Irene; Weinmann, Arndt

2016-01-01

In a competing risks setting, the cumulative incidence of an event of interest describes the absolute risk for this event as a function of time. For regression analysis, one can either choose to model all competing events by separate cause-specific hazard models or directly model the association...... for time-varying effects. This is implemented by coupling variable selection between the grid times, but determining estimates separately. The effect estimates are regularized to also allow for model fitting with a low to moderate number of observations. This technique is illustrated in an application...

Do the wealthy have a health advantage? Cardiovascular disease risk factors and wealth.

Science.gov (United States)

Hajat, A; Kaufman, J S; Rose, K M; Siddiqi, A; Thomas, J C

2010-12-01

The use of wealth as a measure of socioeconomic status (SES) remains uncommon in epidemiological studies. When used, wealth is often measured crudely and at a single point in time. Our study explores the relationship between wealth and three cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors (smoking, obesity and hypertension) in a US population. We improve upon existing literature by using a detailed and validated measure of wealth in a longitudinal setting. We used four waves of data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) collected between 1999 and 2005. Inverse probability weights were employed to control for time-varying confounding and to estimate both relative (risk ratio) and absolute (risk difference) measures of effect. Wealth was defined as inflation-adjusted net worth and specified as a six category variable: one category for those with less than or equal to zero wealth and quintiles of positive wealth. After adjusting for income and other time-varying confounders, as well as baseline covariates, the risk of becoming obese was inversely related to wealth. There was a 40%-89% higher risk of becoming obese among the less wealthy relative to the wealthiest quintile and 11 to 25 excess cases (per 1000 persons) among the less wealthy groups over six years of follow up. Smoking initiation had similar but more moderate effects; risk ratios and differences both revealed a smaller magnitude of effect compared to obesity. Of the three CVD risk factors examined here, hypertension incidence had the weakest association with wealth, showing a smaller increased risk and fewer excess cases among the less wealthy groups. In conclusion, this study found a strong inverse association between wealth and obesity incidence, a moderate inverse association between wealth and smoking initiation and a weak inverse association between wealth and hypertension incidence after controlling for income and other time-varying confounders. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying lead-time bias in risk factor studies of cancer through simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jansen, Rick J; Alexander, Bruce H; Anderson, Kristin E; Church, Timothy R

2013-11-01

Lead-time is inherent in early detection and creates bias in observational studies of screening efficacy, but its potential to bias effect estimates in risk factor studies is not always recognized. We describe a form of this bias that conventional analyses cannot address and develop a model to quantify it. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data form the basis for estimates of age-specific preclinical incidence, and log-normal distributions describe the preclinical duration distribution. Simulations assume a joint null hypothesis of no effect of either the risk factor or screening on the preclinical incidence of cancer, and then quantify the bias as the risk-factor odds ratio (OR) from this null study. This bias can be used as a factor to adjust observed OR in the actual study. For this particular study design, as average preclinical duration increased, the bias in the total-physical activity OR monotonically increased from 1% to 22% above the null, but the smoking OR monotonically decreased from 1% above the null to 5% below the null. The finding of nontrivial bias in fixed risk-factor effect estimates demonstrates the importance of quantitatively evaluating it in susceptible studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent analysis of incidence, risk factors and clinical significance of pneumothorax after percutaneous lung biopsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Woo Hyeon; Park, Chang Min; Yoon, Soon Ho; Lim, Hyun-Ju; Hwang, Eui Jin; Lee, Jong Hyuk; Goo, Jin Mo

2018-03-01

To evaluate the time-dependent incidence, risk factors and clinical significance of percutaneous lung biopsy (PLB)-related pneumothorax. From January 2012-November 2015, 3,251 patients underwent 3,354 cone-beam CT-guided PLBs for lung lesions. Cox, logistic and linear regression analyses were performed to identify time-dependent risk factors of PLB-related pneumothorax, risk factors of drainage catheter insertion and those of prolonged catheter placement, respectively. Pneumothorax occurred in 915/3,354 PLBs (27.3 %), with 230/915 (25.1 %) occurring during follow-ups. Risk factors for earlier occurrence of PLB-related pneumothorax include emphysema (HR=1.624), smaller target (HR=0.922), deeper location (HR=1.175) and longer puncture time (HR=1.036), while haemoptysis (HR=0.503) showed a protective effect against earlier development of pneumothorax. Seventy-five cases (8.2 %) underwent chest catheter placement. Mean duration of catheter placement was 3.2±2.0 days. Emphysema (odds ratio [OR]=2.400) and longer puncture time (OR=1.053) were assessed as significant risk factors for catheter insertion, and older age (parameter estimate=1.014) was a predictive factor for prolonged catheter placement. PLB-related pneumothorax occurred in 27.3 %, of which 25.1 % developed during follow-ups. Smaller target size, emphysema, deeply-located lesions were significant risk factors of PLB-related pneumothorax. Emphysema and older age were related to drainage catheter insertion and prolonged catheter placement, respectively. • One-fourth of percutaneous lung biopsy (PLB)-related pneumothorax occurs during follow-up. • Smaller, deeply-located target and emphysema lead to early occurrence of pneumothorax. • Emphysema is related to drainage catheter insertion for PLB-related pneumothorax. • Older age may lead to prolonged catheter placement for PLB-related pneumothorax. • Tailored management can be possible with time-dependent information of PLB-related pneumothorax.

Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yong

optimization problem when the objective is to minimize the expected total cost and discomfort, then since the decision maker is likely to be risk-averse, and she wants to protect herself from price spikes, we study the robust optimization problem to address the risk-aversion of the decision maker. We conduct numerical studies to evaluate the price of robustness. Next, we present a detailed model that manages multiple types of flexible demand in the absence of knowledge regarding the distributions of related stochastic processes. Specifically, we consider the case in which time-varying prices with general structures are offered to users, and an energy management system for each household makes optimal energy usage, storage, and trading decisions according to the preferences of users. Because of the uncertainties associated with electricity prices, local generation, and the arrival processes of demand, we formulate a stochastic dynamic programming model, and outline a novel and tractable ADP approach to overcome the curses of dimensionality. Then, we perform numerical studies, whose results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ADP approach. At last, we propose another approximation approach based on Q-learning. In addition, we also develop another decentralization-based heuristic. Both the Q-learning approach and the heuristic make necessary assumptions on the knowledge of information, and each of them has unique advantages. We conduct numerical studies on a testing problem. The simulation results show that both the Q-learning and the decentralization based heuristic approaches work well. Lastly, we conclude the paper with some discussions on future extension directions.

Risk factors for low birth-weight in areas with varying malaria transmission in Korogwe, Tanzania: implications for malaria control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mmbando, Bruno Paul; Cole-Lewis, H; Sembuche, S

2008-01-01

Low birth weight (LBW) is a risk factor for infant mortality, morbidity, growth retardation, poor cognitive development, and chronic diseases. Maternal exposure to diseases such as malaria, HIV, and syphilis has been shown to have a significant impact on birth weight (BW). This study was aimed...... at determining whether there was a difference in rates of LBW in areas of varying malaria transmission intensity in Korogwe, Tanzania. Retrospective data for one year (June 2004-May 2005) in three maternal and child health (MCH) clinics in the district were analysed. Villages were stratified into three strata...... babies compared to first parity women (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.19-0.98, P=0.045). Similarly, the risk of LBW was higher in women who had delayed MCH gestational booking and in women who conceived during high malaria transmission seasons. There was high degree of preference of digits ending with 0...

Clinical relevance of and risk factors associated with medication administration time errors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Teunissen, R.; Bos, J.; Pot, H.; Pluim, M.; Kramers, C.

2013-01-01

PURPOSE: The clinical relevance of and risk factors associated with errors related to medication administration time were studied. METHODS: In this explorative study, 66 medication administration rounds were studied on two wards (surgery and neurology) of a hospital. Data on medication errors were

Overlapping quadratic optimal control of linear time-varying commutative systems

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bakule, Lubomír; Rodellar, J.; Rossell, J. M.

2002-01-01

Roč. 40, č. 5 (2002), s. 1611-1627 ISSN 0363-0129 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA2075802 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : overlapping * optimal control * linear time-varying systems Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 1.441, year: 2002

Design of 2D time-varying vector fields.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Guoning; Kwatra, Vivek; Wei, Li-Yi; Hansen, Charles D; Zhang, Eugene

2012-10-01

Design of time-varying vector fields, i.e., vector fields that can change over time, has a wide variety of important applications in computer graphics. Existing vector field design techniques do not address time-varying vector fields. In this paper, we present a framework for the design of time-varying vector fields, both for planar domains as well as manifold surfaces. Our system supports the creation and modification of various time-varying vector fields with desired spatial and temporal characteristics through several design metaphors, including streamlines, pathlines, singularity paths, and bifurcations. These design metaphors are integrated into an element-based design to generate the time-varying vector fields via a sequence of basis field summations or spatial constrained optimizations at the sampled times. The key-frame design and field deformation are also introduced to support other user design scenarios. Accordingly, a spatial-temporal constrained optimization and the time-varying transformation are employed to generate the desired fields for these two design scenarios, respectively. We apply the time-varying vector fields generated using our design system to a number of important computer graphics applications that require controllable dynamic effects, such as evolving surface appearance, dynamic scene design, steerable crowd movement, and painterly animation. Many of these are difficult or impossible to achieve via prior simulation-based methods. In these applications, the time-varying vector fields have been applied as either orientation fields or advection fields to control the instantaneous appearance or evolving trajectories of the dynamic effects.

Profile and Risk Factor Analysis of Unintentional Injuries in Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhamkar, Rahul; Seth, Bageshree; Setia, Maninder Singh

2016-10-01

To study the profile and various risk factors associated with unintentional injuries in children. The study is a cross sectional analysis of data collected from 351 children presenting with unintentional injury to a tertiary care hospital in Navi Mumbai, India. Data were collected about variables based on Haddon Phase Factor Matrix - host, environment and agent factors. Proportions for categorical variables across various groups were compared using Chi square test or Fisher's exact test. Logistic regression model was used to evaluate the factors. Falls (36 %) were the most common injuries followed by bites (23 %). Majority of children were school going children (38 %) followed by preschool children (29 %). Forty-seven percent were from lower socioeconomic class. Commonest place of injury was home (48 %) and the commonest time was evening (49 %). Though there was male predominance in injuries, the difference across gender did not vary significantly (p = 0.15). Poisonings were significantly more common in infants and toddlers and in rural population (p risk of bites compared to urban (p Profile of injuries varies widely as per the variations in agent, host and environmental factors. Socio-environmental, economic conditions and infancy-toddler age groups are predisposing risk factors for bites and poisoning. Although rural areas and lower socioeconomic class population are more vulnerable to serious types of injuries, they still lack essential basic medical care.

Time trends in osteoporosis risk factor profiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Jakob Præst; Hyldstrup, Lars; Jensen, Jens-Erik Beck

2016-01-01

The aim of this article was to identify prevalent osteoporosis risk factors, medications and comorbidities associated with bone mineral density (BMD). Furthermore to evaluate changes in risk factor profiles over 12 years. 6285 women consecutively referred to an osteoporosis specialist clinic were...... was established in a real-life setting. The prevalence of osteoporosis and proportion of patient's having comorbidity's associated with osteoporosis were increasing during the inclusion period (start 23.8 %, end 29.7 %). Increasing age (OR = 1.05), current smoking (OR = 1.18), estrogen deficiency (OR = 1.......7), hyperthyroidism (OR = 1.5), previous major osteoporotic fracture (OR = 1.7), former osteoporosis treatment (OR = 3.5), higher BMI (OR = 0.87), use of calcium supplementation (OR = 1.2), high exercise level (OR = 0.7), and use of thiazide diuretics (OR = 0.7) were identified as predictors of osteoporosis by DXA...

Mass media and risk factors for cancer: the under-representation of age.

Science.gov (United States)

Macdonald, Sara; Cunningham, Yvonne; Patterson, Chris; Robb, Katie; Macleod, Una; Anker, Thomas; Hilton, Shona

2018-04-26

Increasing age is a risk factor for developing cancer. Yet, older people commonly underestimate this risk, are less likely to be aware of the early symptoms, and are more likely to be diagnosed with advanced stage cancer. Mass media are a key influence on the public's understanding health issues, including cancer risk. This study investigates how news media have represented age and other risk factors in the most common cancers over time. Eight hundred articles about the four most common cancers (breast, prostate, lung and colorectal) published within eight UK national newspapers in 2003, 2004, 2013 and 2014 were identified using the Nexis database. Relevant manifest content of articles was coded quantitatively and subjected to descriptive statistical analysis in SPSS to identify patterns across the data. Risk was presented in half of the articles but this was rarely discussed in any depth and around a quarter of all articles introduced more than one risk factor, irrespective of cancer site. Age was mentioned as a risk factor in approximately 12% of all articles and this varied by cancer site. Age was most frequently reported in relation to prostate cancer and least often in articles about lung cancer. Articles featuring personal narratives more frequently focused on younger people and this was more pronounced in non-celebrity stories; only 15% of non-celebrity narratives were about people over 60. Other common risks discussed were family history and genetics, smoking, diet, alcohol, and environmental factors. Family history and genetics together featured as the most common risk factors. Risk factor reporting varied by site and family history was most commonly associated with breast cancer, diet with bowel cancer and smoking with lung cancer. Age and older adults were largely obscured in media representation of cancer and cancer experience. Indeed common risk factors in general were rarely discussed in any depth. Our findings will usefully inform the development of

Design of 2D Time-Varying Vector Fields

KAUST Repository

Chen, Guoning

2012-10-01

Design of time-varying vector fields, i.e., vector fields that can change over time, has a wide variety of important applications in computer graphics. Existing vector field design techniques do not address time-varying vector fields. In this paper, we present a framework for the design of time-varying vector fields, both for planar domains as well as manifold surfaces. Our system supports the creation and modification of various time-varying vector fields with desired spatial and temporal characteristics through several design metaphors, including streamlines, pathlines, singularity paths, and bifurcations. These design metaphors are integrated into an element-based design to generate the time-varying vector fields via a sequence of basis field summations or spatial constrained optimizations at the sampled times. The key-frame design and field deformation are also introduced to support other user design scenarios. Accordingly, a spatial-temporal constrained optimization and the time-varying transformation are employed to generate the desired fields for these two design scenarios, respectively. We apply the time-varying vector fields generated using our design system to a number of important computer graphics applications that require controllable dynamic effects, such as evolving surface appearance, dynamic scene design, steerable crowd movement, and painterly animation. Many of these are difficult or impossible to achieve via prior simulation-based methods. In these applications, the time-varying vector fields have been applied as either orientation fields or advection fields to control the instantaneous appearance or evolving trajectories of the dynamic effects. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

Design of 2D Time-Varying Vector Fields

KAUST Repository

Chen, Guoning; Kwatra, Vivek; Wei, Li-Yi; Hansen, Charles D.; Zhang, Eugene

2012-01-01

Design of time-varying vector fields, i.e., vector fields that can change over time, has a wide variety of important applications in computer graphics. Existing vector field design techniques do not address time-varying vector fields. In this paper, we present a framework for the design of time-varying vector fields, both for planar domains as well as manifold surfaces. Our system supports the creation and modification of various time-varying vector fields with desired spatial and temporal characteristics through several design metaphors, including streamlines, pathlines, singularity paths, and bifurcations. These design metaphors are integrated into an element-based design to generate the time-varying vector fields via a sequence of basis field summations or spatial constrained optimizations at the sampled times. The key-frame design and field deformation are also introduced to support other user design scenarios. Accordingly, a spatial-temporal constrained optimization and the time-varying transformation are employed to generate the desired fields for these two design scenarios, respectively. We apply the time-varying vector fields generated using our design system to a number of important computer graphics applications that require controllable dynamic effects, such as evolving surface appearance, dynamic scene design, steerable crowd movement, and painterly animation. Many of these are difficult or impossible to achieve via prior simulation-based methods. In these applications, the time-varying vector fields have been applied as either orientation fields or advection fields to control the instantaneous appearance or evolving trajectories of the dynamic effects. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

Risk factors and timing of default from treatment for non-multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Moldova.

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, H E; Ciobanu, A; Plesca, V; Crudu, V; Galusca, I; Soltan, V; Cohen, T

2013-03-01

The Republic of Moldova, in Eastern Europe, has among the highest reported nationwide proportions of tuberculosis (TB) patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) worldwide. Default has been associated with increased mortality and amplification of drug resistance, and may contribute to the high MDR-TB rates in Moldova. To assess risk factors and timing of default from treatment for non-MDR-TB from 2007 to 2010. A retrospective analysis of routine surveillance data on all non-MDR-TB patients reported. A total of 14.7% of non-MDR-TB patients defaulted from treatment during the study period. Independent risk factors for default included sociodemographic factors, such as homelessness, living alone, less formal education and spending substantial time outside Moldova in the year prior to diagnosis; and health-related factors such as human immunodeficiency virus co-infection, greater lung pathology and increasing TB drug resistance. Anti-tuberculosis treatment is usually initiated within an institutional setting in Moldova, and the default risk was highest in the month following the phase of hospitalized treatment (among civilians) and after leaving prison (among those diagnosed while incarcerated). Targeted interventions to increase treatment adherence for patients at highest risk of default, and improving the continuity of care for patients transitioning from institutional to community care may substantially reduce risk of default.

Forced solitary Rossby waves under the influence of slowly varying topography with time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Hong-Wei; Yin Bao-Shu; Yang De-Zhou; Xu Zhen-Hua

2011-01-01

By using a weakly nonlinear and perturbation method, the generalized inhomogeneous Korteweg—de Vries (KdV)—Burgers equation is derived, which governs the evolution of the amplitude of Rossby waves under the influence of dissipation and slowly varying topography with time. The analysis indicates that dissipation and slowly varying topography with time are important factors in causing variation in the mass and energy of solitary waves. (general)

Global Stability of Polytopic Linear Time-Varying Dynamic Systems under Time-Varying Point Delays and Impulsive Controls

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. de la Sen

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the stability properties of a class of dynamic linear systems possessing several linear time-invariant parameterizations (or configurations which conform a linear time-varying polytopic dynamic system with a finite number of time-varying time-differentiable point delays. The parameterizations may be timevarying and with bounded discontinuities and they can be subject to mixed regular plus impulsive controls within a sequence of time instants of zero measure. The polytopic parameterization for the dynamics associated with each delay is specific, so that (q+1 polytopic parameterizations are considered for a system with q delays being also subject to delay-free dynamics. The considered general dynamic system includes, as particular cases, a wide class of switched linear systems whose individual parameterizations are timeinvariant which are governed by a switching rule. However, the dynamic system under consideration is viewed as much more general since it is time-varying with timevarying delays and the bounded discontinuous changes of active parameterizations are generated by impulsive controls in the dynamics and, at the same time, there is not a prescribed set of candidate potential parameterizations.

The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Osterrieder, Daniela; Schotman, Peter C.

We develop a model that can match two stylized facts of the term-structure. The first stylized fact is the predictability of excess returns on long-term bonds. Modeling this requires sufficient volatility and persistence in the price of risk. The second stylized fact is that long-term yields...... are dominated by a level factor, which requires persistence in the spot interest rate. We find that a fractionally integrated process for the short rate plus a fractionally integrated specification for the price of risk leads to an analytically tractable almost affine term structure model that can explain...... the stylized facts. In a decomposition of long-term bond returns we find that the expectations component from the level factor is more volatile than the returns themselves. It therefore takes a volatile risk premium that is negatively correlated with innovations in the level factor to explain the volatility...

Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods: the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-03-01

Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and the risk of hip fracture. A cohort of patients with a first prescription for antidepressants (SSRI or tricyclic antidepressants) was extracted from the Dutch Mondriaan and Spanish Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria (BIFAP) general practice databases for the period 2001-2009. The net (total) effect of SSRI versus no SSRI on the risk of hip fracture was estimated using time-varying Cox regression, stratification and covariate adjustment using the PS, and MSM. In MSM, censoring was accounted for by inverse probability of censoring weights. The crude hazard ratio (HR) of SSRI use versus no SSRI use on hip fracture was 1.75 (95%CI: 1.12, 2.72) in Mondriaan and 2.09 (1.89, 2.32) in BIFAP. After confounding adjustment using time-varying Cox regression, stratification, and covariate adjustment using the PS, HRs increased in Mondriaan [2.59 (1.63, 4.12), 2.64 (1.63, 4.25), and 2.82 (1.63, 4.25), respectively] and decreased in BIFAP [1.56 (1.40, 1.73), 1.54 (1.39, 1.71), and 1.61 (1.45, 1.78), respectively]. MSMs with stabilized weights yielded HR 2.15 (1.30, 3.55) in Mondriaan and 1.63 (1.28, 2.07) in BIFAP when accounting for censoring and 2.13 (1.32, 3.45) in Mondriaan and 1.66 (1.30, 2.12) in BIFAP without accounting for censoring. In this empirical study, differences between the different methods to control for time-dependent confounding were small. The observed differences in treatment effect estimates between the databases are likely attributable to different confounding information in the datasets, illustrating that adequate information on (time-varying) confounding is crucial to prevent bias. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optimal International Asset Allocation with Time-varying Risk

OpenAIRE

Flavin, Thomas; Wickens, M.R.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the optimal allocation each period of an internationally diversified portfolio from the different points of view of a UK and a US investor. We find that investor location affects optimal asset allocation. The presence of exchange rate risk causes the markets to appear not fully integrated and creates a preference for home assets. Domestic equity is the dominant asset in the optimal portfolio for both investors, but the US investor bears less risk than the UK...

Changes in CVD risk factors in the activity counseling trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meghan Baruth

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Meghan Baruth1, Sara Wilcox1, James F Sallis3, Abby C King4,5, Bess H Marcus6, Steven N Blair1,21Department of Exercise Science, 2Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Public Health Research Center, Columbia, SC, USA; 3Department of Psychology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA; 4Department of Health Research and Policy, 5Stanford Prevention Research Center, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA; 6Behavioral and Social Sciences Section, Brown University Program in Public Health, Providence, RI, USAAbstract: Primary care facilities may be a natural setting for delivering interventions that focus on behaviors that improve cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors. The purpose of this study was to examine the 24-month effects of the Activity Counseling Trial (ACT on CVD risk factors, to examine whether changes in CVD risk factors differed according to baseline risk factor status, and to examine whether changes in fitness were associated with changes in CVD risk factors. ACT was a 24-month multicenter randomized controlled trial to increase physical activity. Participants were 874 inactive men and women aged 35–74 years. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three arms that varied by level of counseling, intensity, and resource requirements. Because there were no significant differences in change over time between arms on any of the CVD risk factors examined, all arms were combined, and the effects of time, independent of arm, were examined separately for men and women. Time × Baseline risk factor status interactions examined whether changes in CVD risk factors differed according to baseline risk factor status. Significant improvements in total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL-C, and triglycerides were seen in

Influence of sociodemographic factors on the risk of unintentional childhood home injuries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laursen, Bjarne; Nielsen, Jeppe W

2008-01-01

. Risk differences were found for all injury mechanisms; however the risk for burns was 1.9 (1.6-2.3) times higher in the lowest-income group than in the highest-income group, the relative risk for poisoning was 1.7(1.4-2.1). For scalds from hot water, tea or coffee, the relative risk for the lowest......-income group was 2.4(1.8-3.2). Living in a one- or two-parent family and size of the dwelling had little or no effect on risk. CONCLUSION: Childhood injury incidence depended on sociodemographic factors. The effect of the sociodemographic factors varied between injury mechanisms and products involved......BACKGROUND: While social differences in childhood injuries are recognized, less is known about how social and demographic differences relate to injury mechanism. The purpose of the study was to reveal how sociodemographic factors affect the incidence of unintentional home injuries in Danish...

Time-varying and time-invariant dimensions of depression in children and adolescents: Implications for cross-informant agreement.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, David A; Martin, Joan M; Jacquez, Farrah M; Tram, Jane M; Zelkowitz, Rachel; Nick, Elizabeth A; Rights, Jason D

2017-07-01

The longitudinal structure of depression in children and adolescents was examined by applying a Trait-State-Occasion structural equation model to 4 waves of self, teacher, peer, and parent reports in 2 age groups (9 to 13 and 13 to 16 years old). Analyses revealed that the depression latent variable consisted of 2 longitudinal factors: a time-invariant dimension that was completely stable over time and a time-varying dimension that was not perfectly stable over time. Different sources of information were differentially sensitive to these 2 dimensions. Among adolescents, self- and parent reports better reflected the time-invariant aspects. For children and adolescents, peer and teacher reports better reflected the time-varying aspects. Relatively high cross-informant agreement emerged for the time-invariant dimension in both children and adolescents. Cross-informant agreement for the time-varying dimension was high for adolescents but very low for children. Implications emerge for theoretical models of depression and for its measurement, especially when attempting to predict changes in depression in the context of longitudinal studies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Time varying voltage combustion control and diagnostics sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Chorpening, Benjamin T [Morgantown, WV; Thornton, Jimmy D [Morgantown, WV; Huckaby, E David [Morgantown, WV; Fincham, William [Fairmont, WV

2011-04-19

A time-varying voltage is applied to an electrode, or a pair of electrodes, of a sensor installed in a fuel nozzle disposed adjacent the combustion zone of a continuous combustion system, such as of the gas turbine engine type. The time-varying voltage induces a time-varying current in the flame which is measured and used to determine flame capacitance using AC electrical circuit analysis. Flame capacitance is used to accurately determine the position of the flame from the sensor and the fuel/air ratio. The fuel and/or air flow rate (s) is/are then adjusted to provide reduced flame instability problems such as flashback, combustion dynamics and lean blowout, as well as reduced emissions. The time-varying voltage may be an alternating voltage and the time-varying current may be an alternating current.

Tracking time-varying coefficient-functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Joensen, Alfred K.

2000-01-01

is a combination of recursive least squares with exponential forgetting and local polynomial regression. It is argued, that it is appropriate to let the forgetting factor vary with the value of the external signal which is the argument of the coefficient functions. Some of the key properties of the modified method...... are studied by simulation...

Obesity as a Possible Risk Factor for Lost-time Injury in Registered Nurses: A Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gillian Jordan

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Time-loss injuries are still a major occurrence in Canada, injuring thousands of Canadian workers each year. With obesity rates on the rise across the country, as well as around the world, it is important that the possible effects of obesity in the workplace be fully understood, especially those effects linked to lost-time injuries. The aim of this paper was to evaluate predictors of workplace lost-time injuries and how they may be related to obesity or high body mass index by examining factors associated with lost-time injuries in the health care sector, a well-studied industry with the highest number of reported time loss injuries in Canada. A literature review focusing on lost-time injuries in Registered Nurses (RNs was conducted using the keywords and terms: lost time injury, workers' compensation, occupational injury, workplace injury, injury, injuries, work, workplace, occupational, nurse, registered nurse, RN, health care, predictors, risk factors, risk, risks, cause, causes, obese, obesity, and body mass index. Data on predictors or factors associated with lost-time injuries in RNs were gathered and organized using Loisel's Work Disability Prevention Management Model and extrapolated upon using existing literature surrounding obesity in the Canadian workplace.

Accounting for Time-Varying Confounding in the Relationship Between Obesity and Coronary Heart Disease: Analysis With G-Estimation: The ARIC Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Shakiba, Maryam; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Salari, Arsalan; Soori, Hamid; Mansournia, Nasrin; Kaufman, Jay S

2018-06-01

In longitudinal studies, standard analysis may yield biased estimates of exposure effect in the presence of time-varying confounders that are also intermediate variables. We aimed to quantify the relationship between obesity and coronary heart disease (CHD) by appropriately adjusting for time-varying confounders. This study was performed in a subset of participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (1987-2010), a US study designed to investigate risk factors for atherosclerosis. General obesity was defined as body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2) ≥30, and abdominal obesity (AOB) was defined according to either waist circumference (≥102 cm in men and ≥88 cm in women) or waist:hip ratio (≥0.9 in men and ≥0.85 in women). The association of obesity with CHD was estimated by G-estimation and compared with results from accelerated failure-time models using 3 specifications. The first model, which adjusted for baseline covariates, excluding metabolic mediators of obesity, showed increased risk of CHD for all obesity measures. Further adjustment for metabolic mediators in the second model and time-varying variables in the third model produced negligible changes in the hazard ratios. The hazard ratios estimated by G-estimation were 1.15 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 1.47) for general obesity, 1.65 (95% CI: 1.35, 1.92) for AOB based on waist circumference, and 1.38 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.99) for AOB based on waist:hip ratio, suggesting that AOB increased the risk of CHD. The G-estimated hazard ratios for both measures were further from the null than those derived from standard models.

A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiarella, Carl; He Xuezhong; Wang, Duo

2006-01-01

We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model

Neighborhood street scale elements, sedentary time and cardiometabolic risk factors in inactive ethnic minority women.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Rebecca E; Mama, Scherezade K; Adamus-Leach, Heather J

2012-01-01

Cardiometabolic risk factors such as obesity, excess percent body fat, high blood pressure, elevated resting heart rate and sedentary behavior have increased in recent decades due to changes in the environment and lifestyle. Neighborhood micro-environmental, street scale elements may contribute to health above and beyond individual characteristics of residents. To investigate the relationship between neighborhood street scale elements and cardiometabolic risk factors among inactive ethnic minority women. Women (N = 410) completed measures of BMI, percent body fat, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sedentary behavior and demographics. Trained field assessors completed the Pedestrian Environment Data Scan in participants' neighborhoods. Data were collected from 2006-2008. Multiple regression models were conducted in 2011 to estimate the effect of environmental factors on cardiometabolic risk factors. Adjusted regression models found an inverse association between sidewalk buffers and blood pressure, between traffic control devices and resting heart rate, and a positive association between presence of pedestrian crossing aids and BMI (psattractiveness and safety for walking and cycling were related to more time spent in a motor vehicle (psrelationships among micro-environmental, street scale elements that may confer important cardiometabolic benefits and risks for residents. Living in the most attractive and safe neighborhoods for physical activity may be associated with longer times spent sitting in the car.

Fascioliasis risk factors and space-time clusters in domestic ruminants in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, A K M Anisur; Islam, S K Shaheenur; Talukder, Md Hasanuzzaman; Hassan, Md Kumrul; Dhand, Navneet K; Ward, Michael P

2017-05-08

A retrospective observational study was conducted to identify fascioliasis hotspots, clusters, potential risk factors and to map fascioliasis risk in domestic ruminants in Bangladesh. Cases of fascioliasis in cattle, buffalo, sheep and goats from all districts in Bangladesh between 2011 and 2013 were identified via secondary surveillance data from the Department of Livestock Services' Epidemiology Unit. From each case report, date of report, species affected and district data were extracted. The total number of domestic ruminants in each district was used to calculate fascioliasis cases per ten thousand animals at risk per district, and this was used for cluster and hotspot analysis. Clustering was assessed with Moran's spatial autocorrelation statistic, hotspots with the local indicator of spatial association (LISA) statistic and space-time clusters with the scan statistic (Poisson model). The association between district fascioliasis prevalence and climate (temperature, precipitation), elevation, land cover and water bodies was investigated using a spatial regression model. A total of 1,723,971 cases of fascioliasis were reported in the three-year study period in cattle (1,164,560), goats (424,314), buffalo (88,924) and sheep (46,173). A total of nine hotspots were identified; one of these persisted in each of the three years. Only two local clusters were found. Five space-time clusters located within 22 districts were also identified. Annual risk maps of fascioliasis cases correlated with the hotspots and clusters detected. Cultivated and managed (P fascioliasis in Bangladesh, respectively. Results indicate that due to land use characteristics some areas of Bangladesh are at greater risk of fascioliasis. The potential risk factors, hot spots and clusters identified in this study can be used to guide science-based treatment and control decisions for fascioliasis in Bangladesh and in other similar geo-climatic zones throughout the world.

Vector-field statistics for the analysis of time varying clinical gait data.

Science.gov (United States)

Donnelly, C J; Alexander, C; Pataky, T C; Stannage, K; Reid, S; Robinson, M A

2017-01-01

In clinical settings, the time varying analysis of gait data relies heavily on the experience of the individual(s) assessing these biological signals. Though three dimensional kinematics are recognised as time varying waveforms (1D), exploratory statistical analysis of these data are commonly carried out with multiple discrete or 0D dependent variables. In the absence of an a priori 0D hypothesis, clinicians are at risk of making type I and II errors in their analyis of time varying gait signatures in the event statistics are used in concert with prefered subjective clinical assesment methods. The aim of this communication was to determine if vector field waveform statistics were capable of providing quantitative corroboration to practically significant differences in time varying gait signatures as determined by two clinically trained gait experts. The case study was a left hemiplegic Cerebral Palsy (GMFCS I) gait patient following a botulinum toxin (BoNT-A) injection to their left gastrocnemius muscle. When comparing subjective clinical gait assessments between two testers, they were in agreement with each other for 61% of the joint degrees of freedom and phases of motion analysed. For tester 1 and tester 2, they were in agreement with the vector-field analysis for 78% and 53% of the kinematic variables analysed. When the subjective analyses of tester 1 and tester 2 were pooled together and then compared to the vector-field analysis, they were in agreement for 83% of the time varying kinematic variables analysed. These outcomes demonstrate that in principle, vector-field statistics corroborates with what a team of clinical gait experts would classify as practically meaningful pre- versus post time varying kinematic differences. The potential for vector-field statistics to be used as a useful clinical tool for the objective analysis of time varying clinical gait data is established. Future research is recommended to assess the usefulness of vector-field analyses

Tolerable Time-Varying Overflow on Grass-Covered Slopes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven A. Hughes

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Engineers require estimates of tolerable overtopping limits for grass-covered levees, dikes, and embankments that might experience steady overflow. Realistic tolerance estimates can be used for both resilient design and risk assessment. A simple framework is developed for estimating tolerable overtopping on grass-covered slopes caused by slowly-varying (in time overtopping discharge (e.g., events like storm surges or river flood waves. The framework adapts the well-known Hewlett curves of tolerable limiting velocity as a function of overflow duration. It has been hypothesized that the form of the Hewlett curves suggests that the grass erosion process is governed by the flow work on the slope above a critical threshold velocity (referred to as excess work, and the tolerable erosional limit is reached when the cumulative excess work exceeds a given value determined from the time-dependent Hewlett curves. The cumulative excess work is expressed in terms of overflow discharge above a critical discharge that slowly varies in time, similar to a discharge hydrograph. The methodology is easily applied using forecast storm surge hydrographs at specific locations where wave action is minimal. For preliminary planning purposes, when storm surge hydrographs are unavailable, hypothetical equations for the water level and overflow discharge hydrographs are proposed in terms of the values at maximum overflow and the total duration of overflow. An example application is given to illustrate use of the methodology.

Robust stability analysis of uncertain stochastic neural networks with interval time-varying delay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Wei; Yang, Simon X.; Fu Wei; Wu Haixia

2009-01-01

This paper addresses the stability analysis problem for uncertain stochastic neural networks with interval time-varying delays. The parameter uncertainties are assumed to be norm bounded, and the delay factor is assumed to be time-varying and belong to a given interval, which means that the lower and upper bounds of interval time-varying delays are available. A sufficient condition is derived such that for all admissible uncertainties, the considered neural network is robustly, globally, asymptotically stable in the mean square. Some stability criteria are formulated by means of the feasibility of a linear matrix inequality (LMI), which can be effectively solved by some standard numerical packages. Finally, numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed criteria.

Timed arrays wideband and time varying antenna arrays

CERN Document Server

Haupt, Randy L

2015-01-01

Introduces timed arrays and design approaches to meet the new high performance standards The author concentrates on any aspect of an antenna array that must be viewed from a time perspective. The first chapters briefly introduce antenna arrays and explain the difference between phased and timed arrays. Since timed arrays are designed for realistic time-varying signals and scenarios, the book also reviews wideband signals, baseband and passband RF signals, polarization and signal bandwidth. Other topics covered include time domain, mutual coupling, wideband elements, and dispersion. The auth

A time-motion study of cardiovascular disease risk factor screening integrated into HIV clinic visits in Swaziland.

Science.gov (United States)

Palma, Anton M; Rabkin, Miriam; Simelane, Samkelo; Gachuhi, Averie B; McNairy, Margaret L; Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha, Harriet; Bongomin, Pido; Okello, Velephi N; Bitchong, Raymond A; El-Sadr, Wafaa M

2018-03-01

Screening of modifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is recommended but not routinely provided for HIV-infected patients, especially in low-resource settings. Potential concerns include limited staff time and low patient acceptability, but little empirical data exists. As part of a pilot study of screening in a large urban HIV clinic in Swaziland, we conducted a time-motion study to assess the impact of screening on patient flow and HIV service delivery and exit interviews to assess patient acceptability. A convenience sample of patients ≥40 years of age attending routine HIV clinic visits was screened for hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia and tobacco smoking. We observed HIV visits with and without screening and measured time spent on HIV and CVD risk factor screening activities. We compared screened and unscreened patients on total visit time and time spent receiving HIV services using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. A separate convenience sample of screened patients participated in exit interviews to assess their satisfaction with screening. We observed 172 patient visits (122 with CVD risk factor screening and 50 without). Screening increased total visit time from a median (range) of 4 minutes (2 to 11) to 15 minutes (9 to 30) (p < 0.01). Time spent on HIV care was not affected: 4 (2 to 10) versus 4 (2 to 11) (p = 0.57). We recruited 126 patients for exit interviews, all of whom indicated that they would recommend screening to others. Provision of CVD risk factor screening more than tripled the length of routine HIV clinic visits but did not reduce the time spent on HIV services. Programme managers need to take longer visit duration into account in order to effectively integrate CVD risk factor screening and counselling into HIV programmes. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.

Applications, dosimetry and biological interactions of static and time-varying magnetic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tenforde, T.S.

1988-08-01

The primary topics of this presentation include: (1) the applications of magnetic fields in research, industry, and medical technologies; (2) mechanisms of interaction of static and time-varying magnetic fields with living systems; (3) human health effects of exposure to static and time-varying magnetic fields in occupational, medical, and residential settings; and (4) recent advances in the dosimetry of extremely-low-frequency electromagnetic fields. The discussion of these topics is centered about two issues of considerable contemporary interest: (1) potential health effects of the fields used in magnetic resonance imaging and in vivo spectroscopy, and (2) the controversial issue of whether exposure to extremely-low-frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields in the home and workplace leads to an elevated risk of cancer. 11 refs

End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

2015-01-01

We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth quarter or December) strongly influences expected returns on risky financial assets, whereas economic growth during the rest of the year does not. We find this pattern for many different asset classes, across different time periods......, and for US and international data. We also show that movements in the surplus consumption ratio of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) , a theoretically well-founded measure of time-varying risk aversion linked to macroeconomic growth, influence expected returns stronger during the fourth quarter than the other...

Neighborhood street scale elements, sedentary time and cardiometabolic risk factors in inactive ethnic minority women.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca E Lee

Full Text Available Cardiometabolic risk factors such as obesity, excess percent body fat, high blood pressure, elevated resting heart rate and sedentary behavior have increased in recent decades due to changes in the environment and lifestyle. Neighborhood micro-environmental, street scale elements may contribute to health above and beyond individual characteristics of residents.To investigate the relationship between neighborhood street scale elements and cardiometabolic risk factors among inactive ethnic minority women.Women (N = 410 completed measures of BMI, percent body fat, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sedentary behavior and demographics. Trained field assessors completed the Pedestrian Environment Data Scan in participants' neighborhoods. Data were collected from 2006-2008. Multiple regression models were conducted in 2011 to estimate the effect of environmental factors on cardiometabolic risk factors.Adjusted regression models found an inverse association between sidewalk buffers and blood pressure, between traffic control devices and resting heart rate, and a positive association between presence of pedestrian crossing aids and BMI (ps<.05. Neighborhood attractiveness and safety for walking and cycling were related to more time spent in a motor vehicle (ps<.05.Findings suggest complex relationships among micro-environmental, street scale elements that may confer important cardiometabolic benefits and risks for residents. Living in the most attractive and safe neighborhoods for physical activity may be associated with longer times spent sitting in the car.

Association Between Leisure Time Physical Activity, Cardiopulmonary Fitness, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, and Cardiovascular Workload at Work in Firefighters.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Clare C W; Au, Chun T; Lee, Frank Y F; So, Raymond C H; Wong, John P S; Mak, Gary Y K; Chien, Eric P; McManus, Alison M

2015-09-01

Overweight, obesity, and cardiovascular disease risk factors are prevalent among firefighters in some developed countries. It is unclear whether physical activity and cardiopulmonary fitness reduce cardiovascular disease risk and the cardiovascular workload at work in firefighters. The present study investigated the relationship between leisure-time physical activity, cardiopulmonary fitness, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and cardiovascular workload at work in firefighters in Hong Kong. Male firefighters (n = 387) were randomly selected from serving firefighters in Hong Kong (n = 5,370) for the assessment of cardiovascular disease risk factors (obesity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, smoking, known cardiovascular diseases). One-third (Target Group) were randomly selected for the assessment of off-duty leisure-time physical activity using the short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Maximal oxygen uptake was assessed, as well as cardiovascular workload using heart rate monitoring for each firefighter for four "normal" 24-hour working shifts and during real-situation simulated scenarios. Overall, 33.9% of the firefighters had at least two cardiovascular disease risk factors. In the Target Group, firefighters who had higher leisure-time physical activity had a lower resting heart rate and a lower average working heart rate, and spent a smaller proportion of time working at a moderate-intensity cardiovascular workload. Firefighters who had moderate aerobic fitness and high leisure-time physical activity had a lower peak working heart rate during the mountain rescue scenario compared with firefighters who had low leisure-time physical activities. Leisure-time physical activity conferred significant benefits during job tasks of moderate cardiovascular workload in firefighters in Hong Kong.

One-dimensional radionuclide transport under time-varying conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gelbard, F.; Olague, N.E.; Longsine, D.E.

1990-01-01

This paper discusses new analytical and numerical solutions presented for one-dimensional radionuclide transport under time-varying fluid-flow conditions including radioactive decay. The analytical solution assumes that all radionuclides have identical retardation factors, and is limited to instantaneous releases. The numerical solution does not have these limitations, but is tested against the limiting case given for the analytical solution. Reasonable agreement between the two solutions was found. Examples are given for the transport of a three-member radionuclide chain transported over distances and flow rates comparable to those reported for Yucca Mountain, the proposed disposal site for high-level nuclear waste

Varying coefficient subdistribution regression for left-truncated semi-competing risks data.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ruosha; Peng, Limin

2014-10-01

Semi-competing risks data frequently arise in biomedical studies when time to a disease landmark event is subject to dependent censoring by death, the observation of which however is not precluded by the occurrence of the landmark event. In observational studies, the analysis of such data can be further complicated by left truncation. In this work, we study a varying co-efficient subdistribution regression model for left-truncated semi-competing risks data. Our method appropriately accounts for the specifical truncation and censoring features of the data, and moreover has the flexibility to accommodate potentially varying covariate effects. The proposed method can be easily implemented and the resulting estimators are shown to have nice asymptotic properties. We also present inference, such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov type and Cramér Von-Mises type hypothesis testing procedures for the covariate effects. Simulation studies and an application to the Denmark diabetes registry demonstrate good finite-sample performance and practical utility of the proposed method.

Plasma clot lysis time and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in black Africans.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zelda de Lange

Full Text Available Studies in populations of European descent show longer plasma clot lysis times (CLT in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD than in controls. No data are available on the association between CVD risk factors and fibrinolytic potential in black Africans, a group undergoing rapid urbanisation with increased CVD prevalence. We investigated associations between known CVD risk factors and CLT in black Africans and whether CLTs differ between rural and urban participants in light of differences in CVD risk.Data from 1000 rural and 1000 urban apparently healthy black South Africans (35-60 years were cross-sectionally analysed.Increased PAI-1(act, BMI, HbA1c, triglycerides, the metabolic syndrome, fibrinogen concentration, CRP, female sex and positive HIV status were associated with increased CLTs, while habitual alcohol consumption associated with decreased CLT. No differences in CLT were found between age and smoking categories, contraceptive use or hyper- and normotensive participants. Urban women had longer CLT than rural women while no differences were observed for men.CLT was associated with many known CVD risk factors in black Africans. Differences were however observed, compared to data from populations of European descent available in the literature, suggesting possible ethnic differences. The effect of urbanisation on CLT is influenced by traditional CVD risk factors and their prevalence in urban and rural communities.

Plasma clot lysis time and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in black Africans.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lange, Zelda; Pieters, Marlien; Jerling, Johann C; Kruger, Annamarie; Rijken, Dingeman C

2012-01-01

Studies in populations of European descent show longer plasma clot lysis times (CLT) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) than in controls. No data are available on the association between CVD risk factors and fibrinolytic potential in black Africans, a group undergoing rapid urbanisation with increased CVD prevalence. We investigated associations between known CVD risk factors and CLT in black Africans and whether CLTs differ between rural and urban participants in light of differences in CVD risk.Data from 1000 rural and 1000 urban apparently healthy black South Africans (35-60 years) were cross-sectionally analysed.Increased PAI-1(act), BMI, HbA1c, triglycerides, the metabolic syndrome, fibrinogen concentration, CRP, female sex and positive HIV status were associated with increased CLTs, while habitual alcohol consumption associated with decreased CLT. No differences in CLT were found between age and smoking categories, contraceptive use or hyper- and normotensive participants. Urban women had longer CLT than rural women while no differences were observed for men.CLT was associated with many known CVD risk factors in black Africans. Differences were however observed, compared to data from populations of European descent available in the literature, suggesting possible ethnic differences. The effect of urbanisation on CLT is influenced by traditional CVD risk factors and their prevalence in urban and rural communities.

Mediation analysis with time varying exposures and mediators.

Science.gov (United States)

VanderWeele, Tyler J; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

2017-06-01

In this paper we consider causal mediation analysis when exposures and mediators vary over time. We give non-parametric identification results, discuss parametric implementation, and also provide a weighting approach to direct and indirect effects based on combining the results of two marginal structural models. We also discuss how our results give rise to a causal interpretation of the effect estimates produced from longitudinal structural equation models. When there are time-varying confounders affected by prior exposure and mediator, natural direct and indirect effects are not identified. However, we define a randomized interventional analogue of natural direct and indirect effects that are identified in this setting. The formula that identifies these effects we refer to as the "mediational g-formula." When there is no mediation, the mediational g-formula reduces to Robins' regular g-formula for longitudinal data. When there are no time-varying confounders affected by prior exposure and mediator values, then the mediational g-formula reduces to a longitudinal version of Pearl's mediation formula. However, the mediational g-formula itself can accommodate both mediation and time-varying confounders and constitutes a general approach to mediation analysis with time-varying exposures and mediators.

Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Keogh, Ruth H; Mangtani, Punam; Rodrigues, Laura; Nguipdop Djomo, Patrick

2016-01-05

Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

Multivariate Option Pricing with Time Varying Volatility and Correlations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter

In recent years multivariate models for asset returns have received much attention, in particular this is the case for models with time varying volatility. In this paper we consider models of this class and examine their potential when it comes to option pricing. Specifically, we derive the risk...... neutral dynamics for a general class of multivariate heteroskedastic models, and we provide a feasible way to price options in this framework. Our framework can be used irrespective of the assumed underlying distribution and dynamics, and it nests several important special cases. We provide an application...... to options on the minimum of two indices. Our results show that not only is correlation important for these options but so is allowing this correlation to be dynamic. Moreover, we show that for the general model exposure to correlation risk carries an important premium, and when this is neglected option...

Time-Varying Market Integration and Expected Returns in Emerging Markets

OpenAIRE

de Jong, Frank; de Roon, Frans

2001-01-01

We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market. The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value of the assets that can be held by domestic investors only versus the market value of the assets that can be traded freely. Our empirical analysis for 30 emerging markets shows that there are stro...

Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

OpenAIRE

Jong, F.C.J.M. de; Roon, F.A. de

2001-01-01

We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value of the assets that can be held by domestic investors only versus the market value of the assets that can be traded freely.Our empirical analysis for 30 emerging markets shows that there are strong...

A Practical and Time-Efficient High-Intensity Interval Training Program Modifies Cardio-Metabolic Risk Factors in Adults with Risk Factors for Type II Diabetes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bethan E. Phillips

2017-09-01

Full Text Available IntroductionRegular physical activity (PA can reduce the risk of developing type 2 diabetes, but adherence to time-orientated (150 min week−1 or more PA guidelines is very poor. A practical and time-efficient PA regime that was equally efficacious at controlling risk factors for cardio-metabolic disease is one solution to this problem. Herein, we evaluate a new time-efficient and genuinely practical high-intensity interval training (HIT protocol in men and women with pre-existing risk factors for type 2 diabetes.Materials and methodsOne hundred eighty-nine sedentary women (n = 101 and men (n = 88 with impaired glucose tolerance and/or a body mass index >27 kg m−2 [mean (range age: 36 (18–53 years] participated in this multi-center study. Each completed a fully supervised 6-week HIT protocol at work-loads equivalent to ~100 or ~125% V˙O2 max. Change in V˙O2 max was used to monitor protocol efficacy, while Actiheart™ monitors were used to determine PA during four, weeklong, periods. Mean arterial (blood pressure (MAP and fasting insulin resistance [homeostatic model assessment (HOMA-IR] represent key health biomarker outcomes.ResultsThe higher intensity bouts (~125% V˙O2 max used during a 5-by-1 min HIT protocol resulted in a robust increase in V˙O2 max (136 participants, +10.0%, p < 0.001; large size effect. 5-by-1 HIT reduced MAP (~3%; p < 0.001 and HOMA-IR (~16%; p < 0.01. Physiological responses were similar in men and women while a sizeable proportion of the training-induced changes in V˙O2 max, MAP, and HOMA-IR was retained 3 weeks after cessation of training. The supervised HIT sessions accounted for the entire quantifiable increase in PA, and this equated to 400 metabolic equivalent (MET min week−1. Meta-analysis indicated that 5-by-1 HIT matched the efficacy and variability of a time-consuming 30-week PA program on V˙O2 max, MAP, and HOMA-IR.ConclusionWith a total time-commitment of

Time-varying output performances of piezoelectric vibration energy harvesting under nonstationary random vibrations

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Yoon, Heonjun; Kim, Miso; Park, Choon-Su; Youn, Byeng D.

2018-01-01

Piezoelectric vibration energy harvesting (PVEH) has received much attention as a potential solution that could ultimately realize self-powered wireless sensor networks. Since most ambient vibrations in nature are inherently random and nonstationary, the output performances of PVEH devices also randomly change with time. However, little attention has been paid to investigating the randomly time-varying electroelastic behaviors of PVEH systems both analytically and experimentally. The objective of this study is thus to make a step forward towards a deep understanding of the time-varying performances of PVEH devices under nonstationary random vibrations. Two typical cases of nonstationary random vibration signals are considered: (1) randomly-varying amplitude (amplitude modulation; AM) and (2) randomly-varying amplitude with randomly-varying instantaneous frequency (amplitude and frequency modulation; AM-FM). In both cases, this study pursues well-balanced correlations of analytical predictions and experimental observations to deduce the relationships between the time-varying output performances of the PVEH device and two primary input parameters, such as a central frequency and an external electrical resistance. We introduce three correlation metrics to quantitatively compare analytical prediction and experimental observation, including the normalized root mean square error, the correlation coefficient, and the weighted integrated factor. Analytical predictions are in an excellent agreement with experimental observations both mechanically and electrically. This study provides insightful guidelines for designing PVEH devices to reliably generate electric power under nonstationary random vibrations.

Time-varying properties of renal autoregulatory mechanisms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zou, Rui; Cupples, Will A; Yip, K P

2002-01-01

In order to assess the possible time-varying properties of renal autoregulation, time-frequency and time-scaling methods were applied to renal blood flow under broad-band forced arterial blood pressure fluctuations and single-nephron renal blood flow with spontaneous oscillations obtained from...... normotensive (Sprague-Dawley, Wistar, and Long-Evans) rats, and spontaneously hypertensive rats. Time-frequency analyses of normotensive and hypertensive blood flow data obtained from either the whole kidney or the single-nephron show that indeed both the myogenic and tubuloglomerular feedback (TGF) mechanisms...... have time-varying characteristics. Furthermore, we utilized the Renyi entropy to measure the complexity of blood-flow dynamics in the time-frequency plane in an effort to discern differences between normotensive and hypertensive recordings. We found a clear difference in Renyi entropy between...

Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses

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Ruth H. Keogh

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Methods Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. Results The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Conclusions Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

Risk Factors and Genotypes of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Libyan ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: The prevalence and incidence of HCV infection varies geographically due to exposure to different risk factors. Identification of HCV genotype is important to defining the epidemiology of the disease. The objective of this study was to describe genotype distribution and its relation to risk factors among HCV ...

Time-varying disaster risk models: An empirical assessment of the Rietz-Barro hypothesis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Irarrazabal, Alfonso; Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos

This paper revisits the fit of disaster risk models where a representative agent has recursive preferences and the probability of a macroeconomic disaster changes over time. We calibrate the model as in Wachter (2013) and perform two sets of tests to assess the empirical performance of the model ...... and hence to reduce the Sharpe Ratio, a lower elasticity of substitution generates a more reasonable level for the equity risk premium and for the volatility of the government bond returns without compromising the ability of the price-dividend ratio to predict excess returns....

Local bladder cancer clusters in southeastern Michigan accounting for risk factors, covariates and residential mobility.

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Geoffrey M Jacquez

Full Text Available In case control studies disease risk not explained by the significant risk factors is the unexplained risk. Considering unexplained risk for specific populations, places and times can reveal the signature of unidentified risk factors and risk factors not fully accounted for in the case-control study. This potentially can lead to new hypotheses regarding disease causation.Global, local and focused Q-statistics are applied to data from a population-based case-control study of 11 southeast Michigan counties. Analyses were conducted using both year- and age-based measures of time. The analyses were adjusted for arsenic exposure, education, smoking, family history of bladder cancer, occupational exposure to bladder cancer carcinogens, age, gender, and race.Significant global clustering of cases was not found. Such a finding would indicate large-scale clustering of cases relative to controls through time. However, highly significant local clusters were found in Ingham County near Lansing, in Oakland County, and in the City of Jackson, Michigan. The Jackson City cluster was observed in working-ages and is thus consistent with occupational causes. The Ingham County cluster persists over time, suggesting a broad-based geographically defined exposure. Focused clusters were found for 20 industrial sites engaged in manufacturing activities associated with known or suspected bladder cancer carcinogens. Set-based tests that adjusted for multiple testing were not significant, although local clusters persisted through time and temporal trends in probability of local tests were observed.Q analyses provide a powerful tool for unpacking unexplained disease risk from case-control studies. This is particularly useful when the effect of risk factors varies spatially, through time, or through both space and time. For bladder cancer in Michigan, the next step is to investigate causal hypotheses that may explain the excess bladder cancer risk localized to areas of

Plasma Clot Lysis Time and Its Association with Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Black Africans

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Z. de Lange (Zelda); M. Pieters (Marlien); J.C. Jerling (Johann); A. Kruger (Annamarie); D.C. Rijken (Dingeman)

2012-01-01

textabstractStudies in populations of European descent show longer plasma clot lysis times (CLT) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) than in controls. No data are available on the association between CVD risk factors and fibrinolytic potential in black Africans, a group undergoing rapid

Impact of varying the definition of myopia on estimates of prevalence and associations with risk factors: time for an approach that serves research, practice and policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Cumberland, Phillippa M; Bountziouka, Vasiliki; Rahi, Jugnoo S

2018-02-03

Refractive error is an increasing global public health concern that requires robust and reliable research to identify modifiable risk factors and provide accurate estimates of population burden. We investigated the impact of reclassification of individuals when using different threshold values of spherical equivalent (SE) to define myopia, on estimates of frequency, distribution and associations with risk factors, to inform current international initiatives to standardise definitions. A random sample of 1985 individuals from the 1958 British birth cohort, at age 44, had autorefraction and self-reported on educational attainment and social class.Refraction status assigned in three different models using SE: (A) moderate to high myopia -3 diopters (D) or more extreme (≤-3.00D), (B) hypermetropia +1.00D or more extreme (≥+1.00D) and (C) mild myopia using three different thresholds: -1.00D, -0.75D or -0.50D, hence reciprocal changes in definition of emmetropia. Frequency estimates and associations with risk factors altered significantly as the threshold value for myopia moved towards SE 0.0D: prevalence of mild myopia increased from 28% to 47%, the association with highest educational attainment attenuated and with higher social class strengthened, with changes in risk ratios of approximately 20%. Even small changes in the threshold definition of myopia (±0.25D) can significantly affect the conclusions of epidemiological studies, creating both false-positive and false-negative associations for specific risk factors. An international classification for refractive error, empirically evidenced and cognisant of the question(s) being addressed and the population(s) being studied, is needed to serve better translational research, practice and policy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Exploring Risk Factors for Follicular Lymphoma

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Alexander J. Ambinder

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Follicular lymphoma (FL is an indolent malignancy of germinal center B cells with varied incidence across racial groups and geographic regions. Improvements in the classification of non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes provide an opportunity to explore associations between environmental exposures and FL incidence. Our paper found that aspects of Western lifestyle including sedentary lifestyle, obesity, and diets high in meat and milk are associated with an increased risk of FL. Diets rich in fruits and vegetables, polyunsaturated fatty acids, vitamin D, and certain antioxidants are inversely associated with FL risk. A medical history of Sjogren's syndrome, influenza vaccination, and heart disease may be associated with FL incidence. Associations between FL and exposure to pesticides, industrial solvents, hair dyes, and alcohol/tobacco were inconsistent. Genetic risk factors include variants at the 6p21.32 region of the MHC II locus, polymorphisms of the DNA repair gene XRCC3, and UV exposure in individuals with certain polymorphisms of the vitamin D receptor. Increasing our understanding of risk factors for FL must involve integrating epidemiological studies of genetics and exposures to allow for the examination of risk factors and interactions between genes and environment.

Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment

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... turn Javascript on. Feature: Skin Cancer Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment Past Issues / Summer 2013 Table ... Articles Skin Cancer Can Strike Anyone / Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment / Timely Healthcare Checkup Catches Melanoma ...

Acute Kidney Injury in Mechanically Ventilated Patients: The Risk Factor Profile Depends on the Timing of Aki Onset.

Science.gov (United States)

Lombardi, Raúl; Nin, Nicolás; Peñuelas, Oscar; Ferreiro, Alejandro; Rios, Fernando; Marin, Maria Carmen; Raymondos, Konstantinos; Lorente, Jose A; Koh, Younsuck; Hurtado, Javier; Gonzalez, Marco; Abroug, Fekri; Jibaja, Manuel; Arabi, Yaseen; Moreno, Rui; Matamis, Dimitros; Anzueto, Antonio; Esteban, Andres

2017-10-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication in patients under mechanical ventilation (MV). We aimed to assess the risk factors for AKI with particular emphasis on those potentially preventable. Retrospective analysis of a large, multinational database of MV patients with >24 h of MV and normal renal function at admission. AKI was defined according to creatinine-based KDIGO criteria. Risk factors were analyzed according to the time point at which AKI occurred: early (≤48 h after ICU admission, AKIE) and late (day 3 to day 7 of ICU stay, AKIL). A conditional logistic regression model was used to identify variables independently associated with AKI. Three thousand two hundred six patients were included. Seven hundred patients had AKI (22%), the majority of them AKIE (547/704). The risk factor profile was highly dependent upon the timing of AKI onset. In AKIE risk factors were older age; SAPS II score; postoperative and cardiac arrest as the reasons for MV; worse cardiovascular SOFA, pH, serum creatinine, and platelet count; higher level of peak pressure and Vt/kg; and fluid overload at admission. In contrast, AKIL was linked mostly to events that occurred after admission (lower platelet count and pH; ICU-acquired sepsis; and fluid overload). None ventilation-associated parameters were identify as risk factors for AKIL. In the first 48 h, risk factors are associated with the primary disease and the patient's condition at admission. Subsequently, emergent events like sepsis and organ dysfunction appear to be predictive factors making prevention a challenge.

Risk Factors for Depression : Differential Across Age?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaakxs, Roxanne; Comijs, Hannie C; van der Mast, Roos C; Schoevers, Robert A; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Penninx, Brenda W J H

INTRODUCTION: The occurrence of well-established risk factors for depression differs across the lifespan. Risk factors may be more strongly associated with depression at ages when occurrence, and therefore expectance, is relatively low ("on-time off-time" hypothesis). This large-scale study examined

Risk factors for stress fractures.

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Bennell, K; Matheson, G; Meeuwisse, W; Brukner, P

1999-08-01

Preventing stress fractures requires knowledge of the risk factors that predispose to this injury. The aetiology of stress fractures is multifactorial, but methodological limitations and expediency often lead to research study designs that evaluate individual risk factors. Intrinsic risk factors include mechanical factors such as bone density, skeletal alignment and body size and composition, physiological factors such as bone turnover rate, flexibility, and muscular strength and endurance, as well as hormonal and nutritional factors. Extrinsic risk factors include mechanical factors such as surface, footwear and external loading as well as physical training parameters. Psychological traits may also play a role in increasing stress fracture risk. Equally important to these types of analyses of individual risk factors is the integration of information to produce a composite picture of risk. The purpose of this paper is to critically appraise the existing literature by evaluating study design and quality, in order to provide a current synopsis of the known scientific information related to stress fracture risk factors. The literature is not fully complete with well conducted studies on this topic, but a great deal of information has accumulated over the past 20 years. Although stress fractures result from repeated loading, the exact contribution of training factors (volume, intensity, surface) has not been clearly established. From what we do know, menstrual disturbances, caloric restriction, lower bone density, muscle weakness and leg length differences are risk factors for stress fracture. Other time-honoured risk factors such as lower extremity alignment have not been shown to be causative even though anecdotal evidence indicates they are likely to play an important role in stress fracture pathogenesis.

[Risk factors for falls in the elderly: systematic review].

Science.gov (United States)

Gama, Zenewton André da Silva; Gómez-Conesa, Antonia

2008-10-01

To systematize results of prospective cohort studies on multiple risk factors for falls in the elderly and to assess their methodological quality. Systematic review of epidemiological studies from Medline, SciELO and Lilacs database. We included prospective cohort studies with samples of more than 100 subjects of both sexes, older than 64 years, and living either in the community or a nursing home. Of 726 studied identified, 15 met the inclusion criteria of being published between 1988 and 2005. The methodology of the studies varied. The main factors associated with increased risk of falls include: previous falls, altered gait, functional impairment, cognitive impairment, psychotropic medication use and excessive physical activity. Despite contradictory findings, being a woman at an advanced age may also be a predictor of falls. Methodological limitations were identified in prospective cohort studies on falls. There is a need for further studies on extrinsic determinants, including evaluator blinding and closer monitoring during follow-up with reduced time of recall.

Separate and joint associations of occupational and leisure-time sitting with cardio-metabolic risk factors in working adults: a cross-sectional study.

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Madina Saidj

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The workplace is a main setting for prolonged sitting for some occupational groups. Convincing evidence has recently accumulated on the detrimental cardio-metabolic health effects of leisure-time sitting. Yet, much less is known about occupational sitting, and the potential health risk attached compared to leisure-time sitting. OBJECTIVE: To explore the separate and joint associations of occupational and leisure-time sitting with cardio-metabolic risk factors in working adults. METHODS: All working adults (N = 2544 from the Health2006, a Danish population-based study, were included in this cross-sectional study. Participants reported hours of sitting during work, during leisure-time along with socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics, including physical activity. Cardio-metabolic risk factors (waist circumference, body mass index, body fat percentage, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, insulin, hemoglobin A1c and plasma glucose were measured. Associations were explored by linear regression for leisure-time, occupational, and overall sitting time. RESULTS: Statistically significant (p<.05 detrimental associations of leisure-time sitting were observed with all cardio-metabolic risk factors, except hemoglobin A1c and plasma glucose. Similarly, occupational sitting time was significantly detrimentally associated with HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and insulin. For categories of sitting time, a joint adverse association of sitting much during both work-time and leisure-time was observed. CONCLUSION: The associations of occupational sitting time with cardio-metabolic risk factors were fewer and weaker compared to leisure-time sitting. Yet, the joint associations of occupational and leisure-time sitting with cardio-metabolic risk factors were higher than the separate. Our findings amplify the need for further focus in this area prior to making assumptions about equivalent health risks across

Separate and joint associations of occupational and leisure-time sitting with cardio-metabolic risk factors in working adults: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Saidj, Madina; Jørgensen, Torben; Jacobsen, Rikke K; Linneberg, Allan; Aadahl, Mette

2013-01-01

The workplace is a main setting for prolonged sitting for some occupational groups. Convincing evidence has recently accumulated on the detrimental cardio-metabolic health effects of leisure-time sitting. Yet, much less is known about occupational sitting, and the potential health risk attached compared to leisure-time sitting. To explore the separate and joint associations of occupational and leisure-time sitting with cardio-metabolic risk factors in working adults. All working adults (N = 2544) from the Health2006, a Danish population-based study, were included in this cross-sectional study. Participants reported hours of sitting during work, during leisure-time along with socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics, including physical activity. Cardio-metabolic risk factors (waist circumference, body mass index, body fat percentage, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, insulin, hemoglobin A1c and plasma glucose) were measured. Associations were explored by linear regression for leisure-time, occupational, and overall sitting time. Statistically significant (pleisure-time sitting were observed with all cardio-metabolic risk factors, except hemoglobin A1c and plasma glucose. Similarly, occupational sitting time was significantly detrimentally associated with HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and insulin. For categories of sitting time, a joint adverse association of sitting much during both work-time and leisure-time was observed. The associations of occupational sitting time with cardio-metabolic risk factors were fewer and weaker compared to leisure-time sitting. Yet, the joint associations of occupational and leisure-time sitting with cardio-metabolic risk factors were higher than the separate. Our findings amplify the need for further focus in this area prior to making assumptions about equivalent health risks across sedentary behaviors. To our knowledge, this is the first study to contrast the deleterious associations of

Delay-Dependent Guaranteed Cost Control of an Interval System with Interval Time-Varying Delay

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Xiao Min

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper concerns the problem of the delay-dependent robust stability and guaranteed cost control for an interval system with time-varying delay. The interval system with matrix factorization is provided and leads to less conservative conclusions than solving a square root. The time-varying delay is assumed to belong to an interval and the derivative of the interval time-varying delay is not a restriction, which allows a fast time-varying delay; also its applicability is broad. Based on the Lyapunov-Ktasovskii approach, a delay-dependent criterion for the existence of a state feedback controller, which guarantees the closed-loop system stability, the upper bound of cost function, and disturbance attenuation lever for all admissible uncertainties as well as out perturbation, is proposed in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. The criterion is derived by free weighting matrices that can reduce the conservatism. The effectiveness has been verified in a number example and the compute results are presented to validate the proposed design method.

Maternal Risk Factors for Singleton Preterm Births and Survival at ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Context: Risk factors for and survival of singleton preterm births may vary ... factors and survival‑to‑discharge rate for singleton preterm births at the University of ... Statistical analysis involved descriptive and inferential statistics at 95% level of ...

Experimental evidence for amplitude death induced by a time-varying interaction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suresh, K. [Centre for Nonlinear Dynamics, School of Physics, Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli 620024, Tamil Nadu (India); Shrimali, M.D. [Department of Physics, Central University of Rajasthan, NH-8, Bandar Sindri, Ajmer 305 801 (India); Prasad, Awadhesh [Department of Physics and Astrophysics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110 007 (India); Thamilmaran, K., E-mail: maran.cnld@gmail.com [Centre for Nonlinear Dynamics, School of Physics, Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli 620024, Tamil Nadu (India)

2014-08-01

In this paper, we study the time-varying interaction in coupled oscillatory systems. For this purpose, we have designed a novel time-varying resistive network using an analog switch and inverter circuits. We have applied this time-varying resistive network to mutually coupled identical Chua's oscillators. When the resistances are varied in time, we find that amplitude death arises in coupled identical oscillators. This has been observed numerically as well as verified through hardware experiments. - Highlights: • We have implemented the time-varying interaction in coupled oscillatory systems. • We have designed a novel time-varying resistive network using an analog switch and inverter circuits. • When the resistances are varied in time, we find that amplitude death arises in coupled identical oscillators.

The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Carla; DuBois, David L.; Grossman, Jean Baldwin

2013-01-01

"The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles" presents findings from the first large-scale study to examine how the levels and types of risk youth face may influence their relationships with program-assigned mentors and the benefits they derive from these relationships. The study looked…

Analysis of time-varying psoriasis lesion image patterns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maletti, Gabriela Mariel; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

2004-01-01

The multivariate alteration detection transform is applied to pairs of within and between time varying registered psoriasis image patterns. Color band contribution to the variates explaining maximal change is analyzed.......The multivariate alteration detection transform is applied to pairs of within and between time varying registered psoriasis image patterns. Color band contribution to the variates explaining maximal change is analyzed....

Route assessment using comparative risk factors integrated through a GIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, D.M.; O'Connell, W.J.

1996-01-01

The assessment of potential alternative routes for the shipment of spent nuclear fuel was simplified through the use of comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed route and environmental attributes. The route characteristics, integrated into risk measures, vary strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The route data and evaluation were managed using a geographic information system (GIS). An assessment of four real North Florida routes was performed and an interstate highway route exhibited the lowest risk based on the application of the risk factors

Pain-to-hospital times, cardiovascular risk factors, and early intrahospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brković E

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Eliana Brković,1 Katarina Novak,2,3 Livia Puljak3 1Department of Psychiatry, 2Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Cardiology, 3Laboratory for Pain Research, University of Split School of Medicine, Split, Croatia Background: The aim of the study was to analyze the most recent trends in myocardial infarction (MI care, the number of patients treated for MI and their outcomes, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and pain-to-hospital times in MI patients. Subjects and methods: For 778 patients treated for acute MI at the Coronary Care Unit (CCU of University Hospital Split, Croatia the following data were acquired: outcome during hospitalization (survived, deceased, cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, previous MI, smoking, and pain-to-CCU time. Results: Among 778 patients treated for acute MI, there were 291 (37% women and 487 (63% men. Forty-five patients (6% died during hospitalization, mostly due to cardiogenic shock. An association was found between early intrahospital mortality and the following risk factors: age >70 years, female sex, previous MI, and smoking. Median pain-to-call time was 2 hours, and median time from the onset of pain to arrival into the CCU was 4 hours. There were 59 (7.6% patients admitted to the CCU within recommended 90 minutes. Diabetic comorbidity was not associated with early death or with longer time from pain to emergency calls. Conclusion: Some of the risk factors associated with adverse outcomes in MI are modifiable. Prehospital delay of 4 hours observed in patients who suffered an MI is too long, and more effort should be devoted to investments in health care and education of the general public regarding chest pain symptoms. Keywords: prehospital delay, ischemic heart disease

Skin complications in deep brain stimulation for Parkinson's disease: frequency, time course, and risk factors.

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Sixel-Döring, Friederike; Trenkwalder, Claudia; Kappus, Christoph; Hellwig, Dieter

2010-02-01

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) has been recognized as an efficacious treatment for movement disorders. Its beneficial effects however may be lost due to skin complications such as erosions or infections over the implanted foreign material. We sought to document skin complications in the entire Parkinson's disease patient population who received a DBS system at the Marburg/Kassel implantation centre since the start of our DBS program in January 2002 to analyze frequency, time course, and possible risk factors. We investigated 85 consecutive patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) from a single center/single surgeon DBS series for the occurrence of skin complications and analyzed localization, time course, and possible risk factors. Mean follow-up was 3 years (range 1-7 years). In total, 21/85 patients (24.7%) suffered a total of 30 single skin complications. Sixty percent of all incidents occurred within the first post-operative year. Forty percent of all incidents occurred later than the first year following primary implantation. Complications involved the burr hole cap in 37%, the course of the cables in 33%, and the impulse generator (IPG) site in 30%. Six of 21 patients suffered recurring skin complications. Eight patients permanently lost their DBS system. Factor analysis for age, gender, disease duration, disease severity, the incidence of hypertension or diabetes as well as a 2-day period with externalized electrodes for continuous test stimulation did not have any statistically significant impact on skin complications. We conclude that (1) PD patients have a risk for skin complications after DBS as long as the system remains in situ and (2) there are at present no identifiable risk factors for skin complications after DBS, other than PD itself.

A simple analytical model for dynamics of time-varying target leverage ratios

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Lo, C. F.; Hui, C. H.

2012-03-01

In this paper we have formulated a simple theoretical model for the dynamics of the time-varying target leverage ratio of a firm under some assumptions based upon empirical observations. In our theoretical model the time evolution of the target leverage ratio of a firm can be derived self-consistently from a set of coupled Ito's stochastic differential equations governing the leverage ratios of an ensemble of firms by the nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation approach. The theoretically derived time paths of the target leverage ratio bear great resemblance to those used in the time-dependent stationary-leverage (TDSL) model [Hui et al., Int. Rev. Financ. Analy. 15, 220 (2006)]. Thus, our simple model is able to provide a theoretical foundation for the selected time paths of the target leverage ratio in the TDSL model. We also examine how the pace of the adjustment of a firm's target ratio, the volatility of the leverage ratio and the current leverage ratio affect the dynamics of the time-varying target leverage ratio. Hence, with the proposed dynamics of the time-dependent target leverage ratio, the TDSL model can be readily applied to generate the default probabilities of individual firms and to assess the default risk of the firms.

Cardiovascular risk factors and collateral artery formation.

Science.gov (United States)

de Groot, D; Pasterkamp, G; Hoefer, I E

2009-12-01

Arterial lumen narrowing and vascular occlusion is the actual cause of morbidity and mortality in atherosclerotic disease. Collateral artery formation (arteriogenesis) refers to an active remodelling of non-functional vascular anastomoses to functional collateral arteries, capable to bypass the site of obstruction and preserve the tissue that is jeopardized by ischaemia. Hemodynamic forces such as shear stress and wall stress play a pivotal role in collateral artery formation, accompanied by the expression of various cytokines and invasion of circulating leucocytes. Arteriogenesis hence represents an important compensatory mechanism for atherosclerotic vessel occlusion. As arteriogenesis mostly occurs when lumen narrowing by atherosclerotic plaques takes place, presence of cardiovascular risk factors (e.g. hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes) is highly likely. Risk factors for atherosclerotic disease affect collateral artery growth directly and indirectly by altering hemodynamic forces or influencing cellular function and proliferation. Adequate collateralization varies significantly among atherosclerotic patients, some profit from the presence of extensive collateral networks, whereas others do not. Cardiovascular risk factors could increase the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in certain patients because of the reduced protection through an alternative vascular network. Likewise, drugs primarily thought to control cardiovascular risk factors might contribute or counteract collateral artery growth. This review summarizes current knowledge on the influence of cardiovascular risk factors and the effects of cardiovascular medication on the development of collateral vessels in experimental and clinical studies.

Finite-time stability of neutral-type neural networks with random time-varying delays

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, M. Syed; Saravanan, S.; Zhu, Quanxin

2017-11-01

This paper is devoted to the finite-time stability analysis of neutral-type neural networks with random time-varying delays. The randomly time-varying delays are characterised by Bernoulli stochastic variable. This result can be extended to analysis and design for neutral-type neural networks with random time-varying delays. On the basis of this paper, we constructed suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional together and established a set of sufficient linear matrix inequalities approach to guarantee the finite-time stability of the system concerned. By employing the Jensen's inequality, free-weighting matrix method and Wirtinger's double integral inequality, the proposed conditions are derived and two numerical examples are addressed for the effectiveness of the developed techniques.

Longitudinal Risk Factors for Intimate Partner Violence among Men in Treatment for Alcohol Use Disorders

Science.gov (United States)

Taft, Casey T.; O'Farrell, Timothy J.; Doron-Lamarca, Susan; Panuzio, Jillian; Suvak, Michael K.; Gagnon, David R.; Murphy, Christopher M.

2010-01-01

Objective: This study examined static and time-varying risk factors for perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV) among men in treatment for alcohol use disorders. Method: Participants were 178 men diagnosed with alcohol abuse or dependence and their partners. Most (85%) of the men were European American; their average age was 41.0 years.…

Entropy Rate of Time-Varying Wireless Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cika, Arta; Badiu, Mihai Alin; Coon, Justin P.

2018-01-01

In this paper, we present a detailed framework to analyze the evolution of the random topology of a time-varying wireless network via the information theoretic notion of entropy rate. We consider a propagation channel varying over time with random node positions in a closed space and Rayleigh...... fading affecting the connections between nodes. The existence of an edge between two nodes at given locations is modeled by a Markov chain, enabling memory effects in network dynamics. We then derive a lower and an upper bound on the entropy rate of the spatiotemporal network. The entropy rate measures...

Risk Factors Associated with Falls in Older Adults with Dementia: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernando, Eresha; Fraser, Michelle; Hendriksen, Jane; Kim, Corey H; Muir-Hunter, Susan W

2017-01-01

Purpose: People with dementia fall more often than cognitively healthy older adults, but their risk factors are not well understood. A review is needed to determine a fall risk profile for this population. The objective was to critically evaluate the literature and identify the factors associated with fall risk in older adults with dementia. Methods: Articles published between January 1988 and October 2014 in EMBASE, PubMed, PsycINFO, and CINAHL were searched. Inclusion criteria were participants aged 55 years or older with dementia or cognitive impairment, prospective cohort design, detailed fall definition, falls as the primary outcome, and multi-variable regression analysis. Two authors independently reviewed and extracted data on study characteristics, quality assessment, and outcomes. Adjusted risk estimates were extracted from the articles. Results: A total of 17 studies met the inclusion criteria. Risk factors were categorized into demographic, balance, gait, vision, functional status, medications, psychosocial, severity of dementia, and other. Risk factors varied with living setting and were not consistent across all studies within a setting. Conclusion: Falls in older adults with dementia are associated with multiple intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors, some shared with older adults in general and others unique to the disease. Risk factors vary between community- and institution-dwelling samples of adults with dementia or cognitive impairment.

Skin cancer: an overview of epidemiology and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, Randy

2013-08-01

To provide a general overview of malignant melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer, with an emphasis on epidemiology, clinical presentation, and the multiple and varied risk factors associated with skin cancer. Peer-reviewed journal articles, government health reports, book chapters, and Web-based resources. Skin cancer is the most common carcinoma, affecting millions worldwide. Incidence is increasing yearly, making it a pre-eminent public health threat. Myriad factors increase the risk of skin cancer and may serve as important prognostic indicators for the disease. To provide nurses with a clearer understanding of the causative mechanisms of skin cancer and an improved awareness of the risk factors associated with the disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-Varying Value of Energy Efficiency in Michigan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mims, Natalie; Eckman, Tom; Schwartz, Lisa C.

2018-04-02

Quantifying the time-varying value of energy efficiency is necessary to properly account for all of its benefits and costs and to identify and implement efficiency resources that contribute to a low-cost, reliable electric system. Historically, most quantification of the benefits of efficiency has focused largely on the economic value of annual energy reduction. Due to the lack of statistically representative metered end-use load shape data in Michigan (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings), the ability to confidently characterize the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings in the state, especially for weather-sensitive measures such as central air conditioning, is limited. Still, electric utilities in Michigan can take advantage of opportunities to incorporate the time-varying value of efficiency into their planning. For example, end-use load research and hourly valuation of efficiency savings can be used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service (KEMA 2012). In addition, accurately calculating the time-varying value of efficiency may help energy efficiency program administrators prioritize existing offerings, set incentive or rebate levels that reflect the full value of efficiency, and design new programs.

Pneumoperitoneum after virtual colonoscopy: causes, risk factors, and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Baccaro, Leopoldo M; Markelov, Alexey; Wilhelm, Jakub; Bloch, Robert

2014-06-01

Computed tomographic virtual colonoscopy (CTVC) is a safe and minimally invasive modality when compared with fiberoptic colonoscopy for evaluating the colon and rectum. We have reviewed the risks for colonic perforation by investigating the relevant literature. The objectives of this study were to assess the risk of colonic perforation during CTVC, describe risk factors, evaluate ways to reduce the incidence complications, and to review management and treatment options. A formal search of indexed publications was performed through PubMed. Search queries using keywords "CT colonography," "CT virtual colonoscopy," "virtual colonoscopy," and "perforation" yielded a total of 133 articles. A total of eight case reports and four review articles were selected. Combining case reports and review articles, a total of 25 cases of colonic perforation after CTVC have been reported. Causes include, but are not limited to, diverticular disease, irritable bowel diseases, obstructive processes, malignancies, and iatrogenic injury. Both operative and nonoperative management has been described. Nonoperative management has been proven safe and successful in minimally symptomatic and stable patients. Colonic perforation after CTVC is a rare complication and very few cases have been reported. Several risk factors are recurrent in the literature and must be acknowledged at the time of the study. Management options vary and should be tailored to each individual patient.

Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

2017-11-01

To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long memory of financial time series and hidden Markov models with time-varying parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

Hidden Markov models are often used to capture stylized facts of daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior for the ability to reproduce the stylized...... facts have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time-varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared...... daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step predictions....

Adverse radiation effect after stereotactic radiosurgery for brain metastases : incidence, time course, and risk factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sneed, Penny K.; Mendez, Joe; Vemer-van den Hoek, Johanna; Seymour, Zachary A.; Ma, Lijun; Molinaro, Annette M.; Fogh, Shannon E.; Nakamura, Jean L.; McDermott, Michael W.

OBJECT The authors sought to determine the incidence, time course, and risk factors for overall adverse radiation effect (ARE) and symptomatic ARE after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases. METHODS All cases of brain metastases treated from 1998 through 2009 with Gamma Knife SRS at

Risk-communication capability for public health emergencies varies by community diversity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viswanath Kasisomayajula

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Public health emergencies heighten several challenges in risk-communication: providing trustworthy sources of information, reaching marginalized populations, and minimizing fear and public confusion. In emergencies, however, information may not diffuse equally among all social groups, and gaps in knowledge may increase. Such knowledge gaps vary by social structure and the size, socioeconomic status, and diversity of the population. This study explores the relationship between risk-communication capabilities, as perceived by public officials participating in emergency tabletop exercises, and community size and diversity. Findings For each of the three communication functions tested, risk-communication capabilities are perceived to be greater in communities with fewer then 10% of the population speaking a language other than English at home, decreasing as the percentage grows to 20% (ANOVA P ≤ 0.02. With respect to community size, however, we found an N-shaped relationship between perceived risk communication capabilities and population size. Capabilities are perceived highest in the largest communities and lowest in the smallest, but lower in communities with 20,000–49,999 inhabitants compared to those with 2,500–19,999. Conclusion The results of this study suggest the need to factor population diversity into risk communication plans and the need for improved state or regional risk-communication capabilities, especially for communities with limited local capacity.

The time-varying role of the family in student time use and achievement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie C. Hull

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, I use a unique dataset linking administrative school data with birth records to quantify the importance of time-varying family factors for child achievement and time use. Specifically, I take a model of academic achievement commonly used in the test score literature, and I augment it to include a family-year effect. Identification comes from the large number of sibling pairs observed in the same year. While prior literature has focused on specific shocks, such as job loss, I capture the full set of innovations that are shared across siblings in a given year. The distributions of fixed effects reveal that annual family innovations, relative to what was expected based on the previous year, are more important than teacher assignment for student achievement and also play a substantial role in the time students spend on homework, free reading, and television. JEL Classification I21, J13, J24

Metabolic syndrome and risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mônica Rodrigues de Araújo Souza

2012-03-01

Full Text Available CONTEXT: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, hepatic manifestation of metabolic syndrome, has been considered the most common liver disease nowadays, which is also the most frequent cause of elevated transaminases and cryptogenic cirrhosis. The greatest input of fatty acids into the liver and consequent increased beta-oxidation contribute to the formation of free radicals, release of inflammatory cytokines and varying degrees of hepatocytic aggression, whose histological expression may vary from steatosis (HS to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH. The differentiation of these forms is required by the potential risk of progression to cirrhosis and development of hepatocellular carcinoma. OBJECTIVE: To review the literature about the major risk factors for NAFLD in the context of metabolic syndrome, focusing on underlying mechanisms and prevention. METHOD: PubMed, MEDLINE and SciELO data basis analysis was performed to identify studies describing the link between risk factors for metabolic syndrome and NAFLD. A combination of descriptors was used, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, metabolic syndrome and risk factors. At the end, 96 clinical and experimental studies, cohorts, meta-analysis and systematic reviews of great impact and scientific relevance to the topic, were selected. RESULTS: The final analysis of all these data, pointed out the central obesity, type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia and hypertension as the best risk factors related to NAFLD. However, other factors were highlighted, such as gender differences, ethnicity, genetic factors and the role of innate immunity system. How these additional factors may be involved in the installation, progression and disease prognosis is discussed. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for NAFLD in the context of metabolic syndrome expands the prospects to 1 recognize patients with metabolic syndrome at high risk for NAFLD, 2 elucidate pathways common to other co-morbidities, 3

Overcoming Spurious Regression Using time-Varying Fourier ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Non-stationary time series data have been traditionally analyzed in the frequency domain by assuming constant amplitudes regardless of the timelag. A new approach called time-varying amplitude method (TVAM) is presented here. Oscillations are analyzed for changes in the magnitude of Fourier Coefficients which are ...

Vesicle biomechanics in a time-varying magnetic field.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Hui; Curcuru, Austen

2015-01-01

Cells exhibit distortion when exposed to a strong electric field, suggesting that the field imposes control over cellular biomechanics. Closed pure lipid bilayer membranes (vesicles) have been widely used for the experimental and theoretical studies of cellular biomechanics under this electrodeformation. An alternative method used to generate an electric field is by electromagnetic induction with a time-varying magnetic field. References reporting the magnetic control of cellular mechanics have recently emerged. However, theoretical analysis of the cellular mechanics under a time-varying magnetic field is inadequate. We developed an analytical theory to investigate the biomechanics of a modeled vesicle under a time-varying magnetic field. Following previous publications and to simplify the calculation, this model treated the inner and suspending media as lossy dielectrics, the membrane thickness set at zero, and the electric resistance of the membrane assumed to be negligible. This work provided the first analytical solutions for the surface charges, electric field, radial pressure, overall translational forces, and rotational torques introduced on a vesicle by the time-varying magnetic field. Frequency responses of these measures were analyzed, particularly the frequency used clinically by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). The induced surface charges interacted with the electric field to produce a biomechanical impact upon the vesicle. The distribution of the induced surface charges depended on the orientation of the coil and field frequency. The densities of these charges were trivial at low frequency ranges, but significant at high frequency ranges. The direction of the radial force on the vesicle was dependent on the conductivity ratio between the vesicle and the medium. At relatively low frequencies (biomechanics under a time-varying magnetic field. Biological effects of clinical TMS are not likely to occur via alteration of the biomechanics of brain

Delay-Dependent Guaranteed Cost H∞ Control of an Interval System with Interval Time-Varying Delay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhongke Shi

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper concerns the problem of the delay-dependent robust stability and guaranteed cost H∞ control for an interval system with time-varying delay. The interval system with matrix factorization is provided and leads to less conservative conclusions than solving a square root. The time-varying delay is assumed to belong to an interval and the derivative of the interval time-varying delay is not a restriction, which allows a fast time-varying delay; also its applicability is broad. Based on the Lyapunov-Ktasovskii approach, a delay-dependent criterion for the existence of a state feedback controller, which guarantees the closed-loop system stability, the upper bound of cost function, and disturbance attenuation lever for all admissible uncertainties as well as out perturbation, is proposed in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. The criterion is derived by free weighting matrices that can reduce the conservatism. The effectiveness has been verified in a number example and the compute results are presented to validate the proposed design method.

Effect of a time varying power level in EBR-II on mixed-oxide fuel burnup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stone, I.Z.; Jost, J.W.; Baker, R.B.

1979-01-01

A refined prediction of burnup of mixed-oxide fuel in EBR-2 is compared with measured data. The calculation utilizes a time-varying power factor and results in a general improvement to previous calculations

Modelling Time-Varying Volatility in Financial Returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amado, Cristina; Laakkonen, Helinä

2014-01-01

The “unusually uncertain” phase in the global financial markets has inspired many researchers to study the effects of ambiguity (or “Knightian uncertainty”) on the decisions made by investors and their implications for the capital markets. We contribute to this literature by using a modified...... version of the time-varying GARCH model of Amado and Teräsvirta (2013) to analyze whether the increasing uncertainty has caused excess volatility in the US and European government bond markets. In our model, volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into two time-varying conditional components: the first...... being captured by a stable GARCH(1,1) process and the second driven by the level of uncertainty in the financial market....

A Time-Varied Probabilistic ON/OFF Switching Algorithm for Cellular Networks

KAUST Repository

Rached, Nadhir B.; Ghazzai, Hakim; Kadri, Abdullah; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2018-01-01

In this letter, we develop a time-varied probabilistic on/off switching planning method for cellular networks to reduce their energy consumption. It consists in a risk-aware optimization approach that takes into consideration the randomness of the user profile associated with each base station (BS). The proposed approach jointly determines (i) the instants of time at which the current active BS configuration must be updated due to an increase or decrease of the network traffic load, and (ii) the set of minimum BSs to be activated to serve the networks’ subscribers. Probabilistic metrics modeling the traffic profile variation are developed to trigger this dynamic on/off switching operation. Selected simulation results are then performed to validate the proposed algorithm for different system parameters.

A Time-Varied Probabilistic ON/OFF Switching Algorithm for Cellular Networks

KAUST Repository

Rached, Nadhir B.

2018-01-11

In this letter, we develop a time-varied probabilistic on/off switching planning method for cellular networks to reduce their energy consumption. It consists in a risk-aware optimization approach that takes into consideration the randomness of the user profile associated with each base station (BS). The proposed approach jointly determines (i) the instants of time at which the current active BS configuration must be updated due to an increase or decrease of the network traffic load, and (ii) the set of minimum BSs to be activated to serve the networks’ subscribers. Probabilistic metrics modeling the traffic profile variation are developed to trigger this dynamic on/off switching operation. Selected simulation results are then performed to validate the proposed algorithm for different system parameters.

Identification of time-varying nonlinear systems using differential evolution algorithm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Perisic, Nevena; Green, Peter L; Worden, Keith

2013-01-01

(DE) algorithm for the identification of time-varying systems. DE is an evolutionary optimisation method developed to perform direct search in a continuous space without requiring any derivative estimation. DE is modified so that the objective function changes with time to account for the continuing......, thus identification of time-varying systems with nonlinearities can be a very challenging task. In order to avoid conventional least squares and gradient identification methods which require uni-modal and double differentiable objective functions, this work proposes a modified differential evolution...... inclusion of new data within an error metric. This paper presents results of identification of a time-varying SDOF system with Coulomb friction using simulated noise-free and noisy data for the case of time-varying friction coefficient, stiffness and damping. The obtained results are promising and the focus...

The Epidemiology of Transfusion-related Acute Lung Injury Varies According to the Applied Definition of Lung Injury Onset Time.

Science.gov (United States)

Vande Vusse, Lisa K; Caldwell, Ellen; Tran, Edward; Hogl, Laurie; Dinwiddie, Steven; López, José A; Maier, Ronald V; Watkins, Timothy R

2015-09-01

Research that applies an unreliable definition for transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) may draw false conclusions about its risk factors and biology. The effectiveness of preventive strategies may decrease as a consequence. However, the reliability of the consensus TRALI definition is unknown. To prospectively study the effect of applying two plausible definitions of acute respiratory distress syndrome onset time on TRALI epidemiology. We studied 316 adults admitted to the intensive care unit and transfused red blood cells within 24 hours of blunt trauma. We identified patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome, and defined acute respiratory distress syndrome onset time two ways: (1) the time at which the first radiographic or oxygenation criterion was met, and (2) the time both criteria were met. We categorized two corresponding groups of TRALI cases transfused in the 6 hours before acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. We used Cohen's kappa to measure agreement between the TRALI cases and implicated blood components identified by the two acute respiratory distress syndrome onset time definitions. In a nested case-control study, we examined potential risk factors for each group of TRALI cases, including demographics, injury severity, and characteristics of blood components transfused in the 6 hours before acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. Forty-two of 113 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome were TRALI cases per the first acute respiratory distress syndrome onset time definition and 63 per the second definition. There was slight agreement between the two groups of TRALI cases (κ = 0.16; 95% confidence interval, -0.01 to 0.33) and between the implicated blood components (κ = 0.15, 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.20). Age, Injury Severity Score, high plasma-volume components, and transfused plasma volume were risk factors for TRALI when applying the second acute respiratory distress syndrome onset time definition

Risk and Protective Factors for Suicide in Patients with Alcoholism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leo Sher

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Alcoholism is associated with a high risk for suicidal behavior. Up to 40% of persons with alcoholism attempt suicide at some time and 7% end their lives by committing suicide. Risk factors include being male, older than 50 years of age, living alone, being unemployed, poor social support, interpersonal losses, continued drinking, consumption of a greater amount of alcohol when drinking, a recent alcohol binge, previous alcohol treatment, a family history of alcoholism, a history of comorbid substance abuse (especially cocaine, a major depressive episode, serious medical illness, suicidal communication, and prior suicidal behavior. Suicidal behavior is especially frequent in patients with comorbid alcoholism and major depression. However, all patients with alcoholism should be evaluated for suicide risk. Understanding of risk and vulnerability to suicidal behavior in alcoholism still outweighs our knowledge of protective factors and resilience. Knowledge of protective factors for suicide may help to prevent and/or predict suicidal behavior. Protective factors for suicide in alcoholism are quite varied and include an individual's biological and behavioral characteristics, as well as attributes of the environment and culture. Protective factors include effective clinical care for psychiatric (including alcoholism and drug abuse and physical disorders, easy access to a variety of clinical interventions and support for seeking help, restricted access to highly lethal means of suicide, strong connections to family and community support, skills in problem solving and conflict resolution, cultural and religious beliefs that discourage suicide and support self-preservation. Future studies are necessary to determine which interventions may reduce suicidal behavior in alcoholism.

Investors’ Risk Preference Characteristics Based on Different Reference Point

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fenghua Wen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Taking the stock market as a whole object, we assume that prior losses and gains are two different factors that can influence risk preference separately. The two factors are introduced as separate explanatory variables into the time-varying GARCH-M (TVRA-GARCH-M model. Then, we redefine prior losses and gains by selecting different reference point to study investors’ time-varying risk preference. The empirical evidence shows that investors’ risk preference is time varying and is influenced by previous outcomes; the stock market as a whole exhibits house money effect; that is, prior gains can decrease investors’ risk aversion while prior losses increase their risk aversion. Besides, different reference points selected by investors will cause different valuation of prior losses and gains, thus affecting investors’ risk preference.

Epidemiology, molecular epidemiology, and risk factors for renal cell carcinoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiara Paglino

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Despite only accounting for approximately 2% of all new primary cancer cases, renal cell carcinoma (RCC incidence has dramatically increased over time. Incidence rates vary greatly according to geographic areas, so that it is extremely likely that exogenous risk factors could play an important role in the development of this cancer. Several risk factors have been linked with RCC, including cigarette smoking, obesity, hypertension (and antihypertensive drugs, chronic kidney diseases (also dialysis and transplantation, as well as the use of certain analgesics. Furthermore, although RCC has not generally been considered an occupational cancer, several types of occupationally-derived exposures have been implicated in its pathogenesis. These include exposure to asbestos, chlorinated solvents, gasoline, diesel exhaust fumes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, printing inks and dyes, cadmium and lead. Finally, families with a predisposition to the development of renal neoplasms were identified and the genes involved discovered and characterized. Therefore, there are now four well-characterized, genetically determined syndromes associated with an increased incidence of kidney tumors, i.e., Von Hippel Lindau (VHL, Hereditary Papillary Renal Carcinoma (HPRC, Birt-Hogg-Dubé Syndrome (BHD, and Hereditary Leiomyomatosis and Renal Cell Cancer (HLRCC. This review will address present knowledge about the epidemiology, molecular epidemiology and risk factors of RCC.

Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

Soil erosion under multiple time-varying rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Heng, B. C. Peter; Barry, D. Andrew; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Sander, Graham C.

2010-05-01

Soil erosion is a function of many factors and process interactions. An erosion event produces changes in surface soil properties such as texture and hydraulic conductivity. These changes in turn alter the erosion response to subsequent events. Laboratory-scale soil erosion studies have typically focused on single independent rainfall events with constant rainfall intensities. This study investigates the effect of multiple time-varying rainfall events on soil erosion using the EPFL erosion flume. The rainfall simulator comprises ten Veejet nozzles mounted on oscillating bars 3 m above a 6 m × 2 m flume. Spray from the nozzles is applied onto the soil surface in sweeps; rainfall intensity is thus controlled by varying the sweeping frequency. Freshly-prepared soil with a uniform slope was subjected to five rainfall events at daily intervals. In each 3-h event, rainfall intensity was ramped up linearly to a maximum of 60 mm/h and then stepped down to zero. Runoff samples were collected and analysed for particle size distribution (PSD) as well as total sediment concentration. We investigate whether there is a hysteretic relationship between sediment concentration and discharge within each event and how this relationship changes from event to event. Trends in the PSD of the eroded sediment are discussed and correlated with changes in sediment concentration. Close-up imagery of the soil surface following each event highlight changes in surface soil structure with time. This study enhances our understanding of erosion processes in the field, with corresponding implications for soil erosion modelling.

Dynamic Factor Analysis of Nonstationary Multivariate Time Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; And Others

1992-01-01

The dynamic factor model proposed by P. C. Molenaar (1985) is exhibited, and a dynamic nonstationary factor model (DNFM) is constructed with latent factor series that have time-varying mean functions. The use of a DNFM is illustrated using data from a television viewing habits study. (SLD)

Incidence, risk factors, and morphology in operating microscope light retinopathy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khwarg, S.G.; Linstone, F.A.; Daniels, S.A.; Isenberg, S.J.; Hanscom, T.A.; Geoghegan, M.; Straatsma, B.R.

1987-01-01

A review of 135 consecutive cataract operations identified ten cases (7.4%) of operating microscope light retinopathy. Ophthalmoscopically, these light retinopathy lesions appeared as a focal pigment epithelial change with varying degrees of pigment clumping in the center. Fluorescein angiography accentuated the lesion by demonstrating a sharply demarcated transmission defect, occasionally with multiple satellite lesions. The shape of the lesion matched the shape of the illuminating source of the particular operating microscope used during the surgery. The most significant risk factor associated with the production of these light retinopathy lesions was prolonged operating time. Mean total operating time for the ten patients with light retinopathy was 51 minutes longer than for those without (P less than .0001). Other significant associated factors were the presence of diabetes mellitus (P less than .03), younger age (P less than .05), and the use of hydrochlorothiazide (P less than .04)

Intrinsic clotting factors in dependency of age, sex, body mass index, and oral contraceptives: definition and risk of elevated clotting factor levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Luxembourg, Beate; Schmitt, Joern; Humpich, Marek; Glowatzki, Matthias; Seifried, Erhard; Lindhoff-Last, Edelgard

2009-10-01

Elevated clotting factors have been demonstrated to be a risk factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE). The aim of our study was to investigate the impact of age, sex, body mass index, and oral contraceptives on the clotting factor activities of factors VIII, IX, XI, and XII and their impact on the cutoff definition and risk of VTE associated with elevated clotting factors. Factor VIII, IX, XI, and XII activities were measured in 499 blood donors and 286 patients with VTE. Age and body mass index predicted significantly and independently the clotting factor activities of factors VIII, IX, and XI, whereas use of oral contraceptives predicted factor IX, XI, and XII levels. Percentiles of clotting factor activities, which are often used for the cutoff definition of elevated clotting factors, varied due to the effect of age, body mass index, and oral contraceptives. The adjusted odds ratios for VTE were 10.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1-20.7], 6.1 (95% CI 3.1-12.0), and 3.3 (95% CI 1.9-5.8) for elevated factors VIII, IX, and XI, respectively. Furthermore, our study demonstrates for the first time that elevated factor XII is associated with an increased risk of VTE (adjusted odds ratio 2.9, 95% CI 1.6-5.3).

East meets West: the influence of racial, ethnic and cultural risk factors on cardiac surgical risk model performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Soo-Hoo, Sarah; Nemeth, Samantha; Baser, Onur; Argenziano, Michael; Kurlansky, Paul

2018-01-01

To explore the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the performance of cardiac surgical risk models, the Chinese SinoSCORE was compared with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model in a diverse American population. The SinoSCORE risk model was applied to 13 969 consecutive coronary artery bypass surgery patients from twelve American institutions. SinoSCORE risk factors were entered into a logistic regression to create a 'derived' SinoSCORE whose performance was compared with that of the STS risk model. Observed mortality was 1.51% (66% of that predicted by STS model). The SinoSCORE 'low-risk' group had a mortality of 0.15%±0.04%, while the medium-risk and high-risk groups had mortalities of 0.35%±0.06% and 2.13%±0.14%, respectively. The derived SinoSCORE model had a relatively good discrimination (area under of the curve (AUC)=0.785) compared with that of the STS risk score (AUC=0.811; P=0.18 comparing the two). However, specific factors that were significant in the original SinoSCORE but that lacked significance in our derived model included body mass index, preoperative atrial fibrillation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SinoSCORE demonstrated limited discrimination when applied to an American population. The derived SinoSCORE had a discrimination comparable with that of the STS, suggesting underlying similarities of physiological substrate undergoing surgery. However, differential influence of various risk factors suggests that there may be varying degrees of importance and interactions between risk factors. Clinicians should exercise caution when applying risk models across varying populations due to potential differences that racial, ethnic and geographic factors may play in cardiac disease and surgical outcomes.

Factors that modify risks of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1988-11-01

The collective influence of biologic and physical factors that modify risks of radiation-induced cancer introduces uncertainties sufficient to deny precision of estimates of human cancer risk that can be calculated for low-dose radiation in exposed populations. The important biologic characteristics include the tissue sites and cell types, baseline cancer incidence, minimum latent period, time-to-tumor recognition, and the influence of individual host (age and sex) and competing etiologic influences. Physical factors include radiation dose, dose rate, and radiation quality. Statistical factors include time-response projection models, risk coefficients, and dose-response relationships. Other modifying factors include other carcinogens, and other biological sources (hormonal status, immune status, hereditary factors)

Retinopathy of prematurity: a review of risk factors and their clinical significance.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sang Jin; Port, Alexander D; Swan, Ryan; Campbell, J Peter; Chan, R V Paul; Chiang, Michael F

2018-04-19

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a retinal vasoproliferative disease that affects premature infants. Despite improvements in neonatal care and management guidelines, ROP remains a leading cause of childhood blindness worldwide. Current screening guidelines are primarily based on two risk factors: birth weight and gestational age; however, many investigators have suggested other risk factors, including maternal factors, prenatal and perinatal factors, demographics, medical interventions, comorbidities of prematurity, nutrition, and genetic factors. We review the existing literature addressing various possible ROP risk factors. Although there have been contradictory reports, and the risk may vary between different populations, understanding ROP risk factors is essential to develop predictive models, to gain insights into pathophysiology of retinal vascular diseases and diseases of prematurity, and to determine future directions in management of and research in ROP. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human Leptospirosis and risk factors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanelis Emilia Tabío Henry

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The human leptospirosis is a zoonosis of world distribution, were risk factors exist that have favored the wild and domestic animal propagation and so man. A descpitive investigation was made with the objective of determining the behavior of risk factors in outpatients by human leptospirosis in “Camilo Cienfuegos“ University General Hospital from Sncti Spíritus In the comprised time period betwen december 1 st and 3 st , 2008.The sample of this study was conformed by 54 risk persons that keep inclusion criteria. Some variables were used:age, sex, risk factors and number of ill persons, according to the month. Some patients of masculine sex prevailed (61,9%, group of ages between 15-29 and 45-59 years (27,7%, patients treated since october to december (53,7%, the direct and indirect contact with animals (46,2 %. The risk factors cassually associated to human leptospirosis turned to be: the masculine sex, the contac with animals, the occupational exposition and the inmersion on sources of sweet water.

Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

1999-01-01

This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event

Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

1999-12-01

This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event.

Empirical Evidence on Time-Varying Hedging Effectiveness of Emissions Allowances under Departures from the Cost-of-Carry Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kai Chang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Under departures from the cost-of-carry theory, traded spot prices and conditional volatility disturbed from futures market have significant impacts on futures price of emissions allowances, and then we propose time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness estimation using ECM-GARCH model. Our empirical results show that conditional variance, conditional covariance, and their correlation between between spot and futures prices exhibit time-varying trends. Conditional volatility of spot prices, conditional volatility disturbed from futures market, and conditional correlation of market noises implied from spot and futures markets have significant effects on time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness. In the immature emissions allowances market, market participants optimize portfolio sizes between spot and futures assets using historical market information and then achieve higher risk reduction of assets portfolio revenues; accordingly, we can obtain better hedging effectiveness through time-varying hedge ratios with departures from the cost-of-carry theory.

Time-varying linear control for tiltrotor aircraft

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing ZHANG

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Tiltrotor aircraft have three flight modes: helicopter mode, airplane mode, and transition mode. A tiltrotor has characteristics of highly nonlinear, time-varying flight dynamics and inertial/control couplings in its transition mode. It can transit from the helicopter mode to the airplane mode by tilting its nacelles, and an effective controller is crucial to accomplish tilting transition missions. Longitudinal dynamic characteristics of the tiltrotor are described by a nonlinear Lagrange-form model, which takes into account inertial/control couplings and aerodynamic interferences. Reference commands for airspeed velocity and attitude in the transition mode are calculated dynamically by visiting a command library which is founded in advance by analyzing the flight envelope of the tiltrotor. A Time-Varying Linear (TVL model is obtained using a Taylor-expansion based online linearization technique from the nonlinear model. Subsequently, based on an optimal control concept, an online optimization based control method with input constraints considered is proposed. To validate the proposed control method, three typical tilting transition missions are simulated using the nonlinear model of XV-15 tiltrotor aircraft. Simulation results show that the controller can be used to control the tiltrotor throughout its operating envelop which includes a transition flight, and can also deal with vertical gust disturbances. Keywords: Constrained optimal control, Inertia/control couplings, Tiltrotor aircraft, Time-varying control, Transition mode

Cross-sectional associations between the five factor personality traits and leisure-time sitting-time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ebstrup, Jeanette Frost; Aadahl, Mette; Eplov, Lene Falgaard

2013-01-01

Leisure-time sitting-time (LTST) is seen as a possible independent risk-factor for physical and mental health, but research on psychological determinants is sparse. Associations between sitting-time and the personality dimensions of neuroticism, extroversion, openness, agreeableness, and conscien......Leisure-time sitting-time (LTST) is seen as a possible independent risk-factor for physical and mental health, but research on psychological determinants is sparse. Associations between sitting-time and the personality dimensions of neuroticism, extroversion, openness, agreeableness...

Scaling properties in time-varying networks with memory

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyewon; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

2015-12-01

The formation of network structure is mainly influenced by an individual node's activity and its memory, where activity can usually be interpreted as the individual inherent property and memory can be represented by the interaction strength between nodes. In our study, we define the activity through the appearance pattern in the time-aggregated network representation, and quantify the memory through the contact pattern of empirical temporal networks. To address the role of activity and memory in epidemics on time-varying networks, we propose temporal-pattern coarsening of activity-driven growing networks with memory. In particular, we focus on the relation between time-scale coarsening and spreading dynamics in the context of dynamic scaling and finite-size scaling. Finally, we discuss the universality issue of spreading dynamics on time-varying networks for various memory-causality tests.

Penile Anaerobic Dysbiosis as a Risk Factor for HIV Infection

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Cindy M. Liu

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Sexual transmission of HIV requires exposure to the virus and infection of activated mucosal immune cells, specifically CD4+ T cells or dendritic cells. The foreskin is a major site of viral entry in heterosexual transmission of HIV. Although the probability of acquiring HIV from a sexual encounter is low, the risk varies even after adjusting for known HIV risk factors. The genital microbiome may account for some of the variability in risk by interacting with the host immune system to trigger inflammatory responses that mediate the infection of mucosal immune cells. We conducted a case-control study of uncircumcised participants nested within a randomized-controlled trial of male circumcision in Rakai, Uganda. Using penile (coronal sulcus swabs collected by study personnel at trial enrollment, we characterized the penile microbiome by sequencing and real-time PCR and cytokine levels by electrochemiluminescence assays. The absolute abundances of penile anaerobes at enrollment were associated with later risk of HIV seroconversion, with a 10-fold increase in Prevotella, Dialister, Finegoldia, and Peptoniphilus increasing the odds of HIV acquisition by 54 to 63%, after controlling for other known HIV risk factors. Increased abundances of anaerobic bacteria were also correlated with increased cytokines, including interleukin-8, which can trigger an inflammatory response that recruits susceptible immune cells, suggesting a mechanism underlying the increased risk. These same anaerobic genera can be shared between heterosexual partners and are associated with increased HIV acquisition in women, pointing to anaerobic dysbiosis in the genital microbiome and an accompanying inflammatory response as a novel, independent, and transmissible risk factor for HIV infection.

Time-Varying Periodicity in Intraday Volatility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Gustav; Thyrsgaard, Martin; Todorov, Viktor

We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether return volatility exhibits time-varying intraday periodicity using a long time-series of high-frequency data. Our null hypothesis, commonly adopted in work on volatility modeling, is that volatility follows a stationary process combined...... with a constant time-of-day periodic component. We first construct time-of-day volatility estimates and studentize the high-frequency returns with these periodic components. If the intraday volatility periodicity is invariant over time, then the distribution of the studentized returns should be identical across...... with estimating volatility moments through their sample counterparts. Critical values are computed via easy-to-implement simulation. In an empirical application to S&P 500 index returns, we find strong evidence for variation in the intraday volatility pattern driven in part by the current level of volatility...

Chronic kidney disease in dogs in UK veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors, and survival.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, D G; Elliott, J; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

2013-01-01

The prevalence for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dogs varies widely (0.05-3.74%). Identified risk factors include advancing age, specific breeds, small body size, and periodontal disease. To estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors associated with CKD diagnosis and survival in dogs. Purebred dogs were hypothesized to have higher CKD risk and poorer survival characteristics than crossbred dogs. A merged clinical database of 107,214 dogs attending 89 UK veterinary practices over a 2-year period (January 2010-December 2011). A longitudinal study design estimated the apparent prevalence (AP) whereas the true prevalence (TP) was estimated using Bayesian analysis. A nested case-control study design evaluated risk factors. Survival analysis used the Kaplan-Meier survival curve method and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. The CKD AP was 0.21% (95% CI: 0.19-0.24%) and TP was 0.37% (95% posterior credibility interval 0.02-1.44%). Significant risk factors included increasing age, being insured, and certain breeds (Cocker Spaniel, Cavalier King Charles Spaniel). Cardiac disease was a significant comorbid disorder. Significant clinical signs included halitosis, weight loss, polyuria/polydipsia, urinary incontinence, vomiting, decreased appetite, lethargy, and diarrhea. The median survival time from diagnosis was 226 days (95% CI 112-326 days). International Renal Interest Society stage and blood urea nitrogen concentration at diagnosis were significantly associated with hazard of death due to CKD. Chronic kidney disease compromises dog welfare. Increased awareness of CKD risk factors and association of blood biochemistry results with survival time should facilitate diagnosis and optimize case management to improve animal survival and welfare. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Finite-Time Stability of Large-Scale Systems with Interval Time-Varying Delay in Interconnection

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T. La-inchua

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate finite-time stability of a class of nonlinear large-scale systems with interval time-varying delays in interconnection. Time-delay functions are continuous but not necessarily differentiable. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and new integral bounding technique, finite-time stability of large-scale systems with interval time-varying delays in interconnection is derived. The finite-time stability criteria are delays-dependent and are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities which can be solved by various available algorithms. Numerical examples are given to illustrate effectiveness of the proposed method.

Risk factors and the occurrence of cerebral palsy in high risk infants

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Setyo Handryastuti

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Background The incidence of cerebral palsy (CP has increased due to better survival rates of high-risk babies. Early detection and time to the occurrence of CP in the first year of life is important in order to provide early intervention. Objectives To determine the proportion of CP in high-risk babies, the time to the occurrence of CP in the first year, and assess possible associations between risk factors of CP and time to the occurrence of CP. Methods A prospective cohort study was done on 150 high-risk babies up to the age of 12 months. We obtained history of motor ability and assessed primitive reflexes and postural reactions of subjects at the ages of 4 and 6 months. The diagnosis of CP was established at 6 and 12 months of age. Results The proportion of CP was 26% at 6 months and 24% at 12 months of age. Significant risk factors associated with CP at 6 and 12 months of age were cerebral ultrasound abnormalities, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, and intracranial hemorrhage. In 88.7% of subjects with CP, CP was detected in the first 6 months. Mean age at the occurrence of CP was 9.99 months (95%CI 9.46 to 10.53. Risk factors that significantly affected the time to the occurrence of CP by survival analysis were ultrasound abnormalities and hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy. Conclusions Cerebral palsy can be detected as early as the first 6 months of life. Cerebral ultrasound abnormalities and hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy are the risk factors associated with CP.

Mendelian randomization analysis of a time-varying exposure for binary disease outcomes using functional data analysis methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Ying; Rajan, Suja S; Wei, Peng

2016-12-01

A Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis is performed to analyze the causal effect of an exposure variable on a disease outcome in observational studies, by using genetic variants that affect the disease outcome only through the exposure variable. This method has recently gained popularity among epidemiologists given the success of genetic association studies. Many exposure variables of interest in epidemiological studies are time varying, for example, body mass index (BMI). Although longitudinal data have been collected in many cohort studies, current MR studies only use one measurement of a time-varying exposure variable, which cannot adequately capture the long-term time-varying information. We propose using the functional principal component analysis method to recover the underlying individual trajectory of the time-varying exposure from the sparsely and irregularly observed longitudinal data, and then conduct MR analysis using the recovered curves. We further propose two MR analysis methods. The first assumes a cumulative effect of the time-varying exposure variable on the disease risk, while the second assumes a time-varying genetic effect and employs functional regression models. We focus on statistical testing for a causal effect. Our simulation studies mimicking the real data show that the proposed functional data analysis based methods incorporating longitudinal data have substantial power gains compared to standard MR analysis using only one measurement. We used the Framingham Heart Study data to demonstrate the promising performance of the new methods as well as inconsistent results produced by the standard MR analysis that relies on a single measurement of the exposure at some arbitrary time point. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles. Executive Summary

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Carla; DuBois, David L.; Grossman, Jean Baldwin

2013-01-01

"The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles" presents findings from the first large-scale study to examine how the levels and types of risk youth face may influence their relationships with program-assigned mentors and the benefits they derive from these relationships. The study looked…

Modeling information diffusion in time-varying community networks

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Xuelian; Zhao, Narisa

2017-12-01

Social networks are rarely static, and they typically have time-varying network topologies. A great number of studies have modeled temporal networks and explored social contagion processes within these models; however, few of these studies have considered community structure variations. In this paper, we present a study of how the time-varying property of a modular structure influences the information dissemination. First, we propose a continuous-time Markov model of information diffusion where two parameters, mobility rate and community attractiveness, are introduced to address the time-varying nature of the community structure. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the accuracy of this model is evaluated by comparing the simulation and theoretical results. Furthermore, numerical results illustrate that generally both the mobility rate and community attractiveness significantly promote the information diffusion process, especially in the initial outbreak stage. Moreover, the strength of this promotion effect is much stronger when the modularity is higher. Counterintuitively, it is found that when all communities have the same attractiveness, social mobility no longer accelerates the diffusion process. In addition, we show that the local spreading in the advantage group has been greatly enhanced due to the agglomeration effect caused by the social mobility and community attractiveness difference, which thus increases the global spreading.

Do Time-Varying Covariances, Volatility Comovement and Spillover Matter?

OpenAIRE

Lakshmi Balasubramanyan

2005-01-01

Financial markets and their respective assets are so intertwined; analyzing any single market in isolation ignores important information. We investigate whether time varying volatility comovement and spillover impact the true variance-covariance matrix under a time-varying correlation set up. Statistically significant volatility spillover and comovement between US, UK and Japan is found. To demonstrate the importance of modelling volatility comovement and spillover, we look at a simple portfo...

Real time forest fire warning and forest fire risk zoning: a Vietnamese case study

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, T.; Pham, D.; Phung, T.; Ha, A.; Paschke, M.

2016-12-01

Forest fire occurs seriously in Vietnam and has been considered as one of the major causes of forest lost and degradation. Several studies of forest fire risk warning were conducted using Modified Nesterov Index (MNI) but remaining shortcomings and inaccurate predictions that needs to be urgently improved. In our study, several important topographic and social factors such as aspect, slope, elevation, distance to residential areas and road system were considered as "permanent" factors while meteorological data were updated hourly using near-real-time (NRT) remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS Terra/Aqua and TRMM) for the prediction and warning of fire. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Vietnam, data from all active stations (i.e. 178) were used with the satellite data to calibrate and upscale meteorological variables. These data with finer resolution were then used to generate MNI. The only significant "permanent" factors were selected as input variables based on the correlation coefficients that computed from multi-variable regression among true fire-burning (collected from 1/2007) and its spatial characteristics. These coefficients also used to suggest appropriate weight for computing forest fire risk (FR) model. Forest fire risk model was calculated from the MNI and the selected factors using fuzzy regression models (FRMs) and GIS based multi-criteria analysis. By this approach, the FR was slightly modified from MNI by the integrated use of various factors in our fire warning and prediction model. Multifactor-based maps of forest fire risk zone were generated from classifying FR into three potential danger levels. Fire risk maps were displayed using webgis technology that is easy for managing data and extracting reports. Reported fire-burnings thereafter have been used as true values for validating the forest fire risk. Fire probability has strong relationship with potential danger levels (varied from 5.3% to 53.8%) indicating that the higher

Newtonian cosmology with a time-varying constant of gravitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McVittie, G.C.

1978-01-01

Newtonian cosmology is based on the Eulerian equations of fluid mechanics combined with Poisson's equation modified by the introduction of a time-varying G. Spherically symmetric model universes are worked out with instantaneously uniform densities. They are indeterminate unless instantaneous uniformity of the pressure is imposed. When G varies as an inverse power of the time, the models can in some cases be shown to depend on the solution of a second-order differential equation which also occurs in the Friedmann models of general relativity. In Section 3, a method for 'passing through' a singularity of this equation is proposed which entails making four arbitrary mathematical assumptions. When G varies as (time) -1 , models with initially cycloidal motion are possible, each cycle becoming longer as time progresses. Finally, gravitation becomes so weak that the model expands to infinity. Kinetic and potential energies for the whole model are derived from the basic equations; their sum is not constant. (author)

Heart disease - risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

Modeling of Electricity Demand for Azerbaijan: Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegration Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeyhun I. Mikayilov

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Recent literature has shown that electricity demand elasticities may not be constant over time and this has investigated using time-varying estimation methods. As accurate modeling of electricity demand is very important in Azerbaijan, which is a transitional country facing significant change in its economic outlook, we analyze whether the response of electricity demand to income and price is varying over time in this economy. We employed the Time-Varying Coefficient cointegration approach, a cutting-edge time-varying estimation method. We find evidence that income elasticity demonstrates sizeable variation for the period of investigation ranging from 0.48% to 0.56%. The study has some useful policy implications related to the income and price aspects of the electricity consumption in Azerbaijan.

Leisure-time physical activity and risk of type 2 diabetes in patients with established vascular disease or poorly controlled vascular risk factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, B.G.; Graaf, van der Y.; Soedamah-Muthu, S.S.; Wassink, A.M.J.; Visseren, F.L.J.

2010-01-01

AIM: To investigate the effect of leisure-time physical activity on the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in patients with manifest arterial disease, or poorly controlled risk factors. METHODS: We examined 3940 patients with manifest arterial disease, hypertension or hyperlipidemia, aged

The time factor in dose-effect relationships

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, H.B.; Grendon, A.; White, M.R.; California Univ., Berkeley

1976-01-01

The assumption that carcinogenic risk is proportional to dose fails to consider that probable time of actual cancer incidence. The time lag between exposure and carcinogenic effect for radiation and chemical agents varies as Dosesup(-1/n), with napproximately3. A model is offered explaining that concentration of initially altered cells depends on dose, whereas their chance for development into tumours on their proximity, which varies as Dsup(-1/3). Because of biological variability, n has a range of values. The model implies that tumours resulting from a single exposure should be closely distributed in time, producing a pulse of cases and subsequently being essentially without effect. Testing of the Dsup(-1/3) rule was extended and its model, by further refinement of methods, applied to radiogenic leukaemia risk and to the effect of urethan in inducing lung tumours in mice with and without radiation exposure as a possible cocarcinogen. Radiation did not affect the tumour yield from urethan in mice. Radiogenic leukaemia and lung tumours induced by urethan both occur in proportion to exposure, but the time of their occurrence is limited to a short interval in relation to life span. Similarly, in murine or in human radiogenic leukaemia, leukaemia risk occurs in proportion to exposure, but the time of occurrences is limited to a short interval in relation to life span. In both sets of observations, as well as in other test systems of carcinogenesis, the peak of occurrence or the mean latent period is roughly inversely related to Dsup(-1/3). Applied to lung tumours and leukaemia, the spread of cases about the peak incidence was found to be typically less than a fifth of the life span. Exposure risks do not continue to act over life span. Neoplastic disease risk from carcinogens levels too low to be tested experimentally, theoretically usually lies beyond the life span. The social and economic consequences of a theoretically calculated number of deaths due to those

Identifying Some Risk Factors for the Time to Death of the Elderly Using the Semi-Parametric Blended Model of Survival Analysis With Competing Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samane Hajiabbasi

2018-01-01

Conclusion In single-variable fitting, age, history of myocardial infarction, history of stroke, and kidney problems were identified to have significant effects on the time to death of the elderly. Based on one-variable semi-parametric competing risk mixture fitted models, more significant risk factors for the time to death of elderly was identified when compared with a fitted multivariate mode to the data. This implies that the role of some independent variables can be explained by other independent variables.

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

Science.gov (United States)

Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-05-01

Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Pathiraja

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

Time-varying correlation and common structures in volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, Yang

2016-01-01

This thesis studies time series properties of the covariance structure of multivariate asset returns. First, the time-varying feature of correlation is investigated at the intraday level with a new correlation model incorporating the intraday correlation dynamics. Second, the thesis develops a

Timing effects in health valuations.

Science.gov (United States)

Leiter, Andrea M; Pruckner, Gerald J

2014-06-01

This paper analyzes the impact of external sources of information, conveyed by the frequency of risky events that vary across time, on the individual willingness to pay (WTP) for a reduction of mortality risk. We collected data from a contingent valuation (CV) exercise conducted in two waves (fall and winter) to examine whether individual WTP varied across periods that differed in the predominance of fatal accidents. Risk valuations were based on fatal snow avalanche accidents, that is, a type of risk with seasonal differences in occurrence. We found slightly lower but statistically significant mean WTP figures in the winter than in the fall sample because of time-varying individual risk attitudes and, therefore, recommend controlling for these factors in risk assessment CV surveys. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Do Tick Attachment Times Vary between Different Tick-Pathogen Systems?

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Stephanie L. Richards

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Improvements to risk assessments are needed to enhance our understanding of tick-borne disease epidemiology. We review tick vectors and duration of tick attachment required for pathogen transmission for the following pathogens/toxins and diseases: (1 Anaplasma phagocytophilum (anaplasmosis; (2 Babesia microti (babesiosis; (3 Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease; (4 Southern tick-associated rash illness; (5 Borrelia hermsii (tick-borne relapsing fever; (6 Borrelia parkeri (tick-borne relapsing fever; (7 Borrelia turicatae (tick-borne relapsing fever; (8 Borrelia mayonii; (9 Borrelia miyamotoi; (10 Coxiella burnetii (Query fever; (11 Ehrlichia chaffeensis (ehrlichiosis; (12 Ehrlichia ewingii (ehrlichiosis; (13 Ehrlichia muris; (14 Francisella tularensis (tularemia; (15 Rickettsia 364D; (16 Rickettsia montanensis; (17 Rickettsia parkeri (American boutonneuse fever, American tick bite fever; (18 Rickettsia ricketsii (Rocky Mountain spotted fever; (19 Colorado tick fever virus (Colorado tick fever; (20 Heartland virus; (21 Powassan virus (Powassan disease; (22 tick paralysis neurotoxin; and (23 Galactose-α-1,3-galactose (Mammalian Meat Allergy-alpha-gal syndrome. Published studies for 12 of the 23 pathogens/diseases showed tick attachment times. Reported tick attachment times varied (<1 h to seven days between pathogen/toxin type and tick vector. Not all studies were designed to detect the duration of attachment required for transmission. Knowledge of this important aspect of vector competence is lacking and impairs risk assessment for some tick-borne pathogens.

Worldwide incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma cases attributable to major risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Baecker, Aileen; Liu, Xing; La Vecchia, Carlo; Zhang, Zuo-Feng

2018-05-01

To facilitate regionally specific liver cancer prevention and control, this study estimates the fraction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases attributable to five major liver cancer risk factors by geographic region. Prevalence estimates of major HCC risk factors, including chronic infection with hepatitis B and hepatitis C, alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking, obesity, and diabetes, were extracted for each country from the literature, along with recent incidence and risk estimate data, to calculate regionally specific population attributable fractions. Overall, 44% of HCC cases worldwide were attributable to chronic hepatitis B infection, with the majority of cases occurring in Asia. Hepatitis C was responsible for 21% of cases. Lifestyle risk factors such as alcohol drinking and obesity were responsible for a larger percentage of cases in North America and Western, Central, and Eastern Europe. In addition, strong sex disparities were observed when looking at lifestyle risk factors, particularly tobacco smoking, in Asia and Africa. Prominent risk factors for HCC vary depending on the region. Our findings provide useful data for developing regionally specific guidelines for liver cancer prevention and control worldwide.

Risk Factors for Internet Gaming Disorder: Psychological Factors and Internet Gaming Characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Rho, Mi Jung; Lee, Hyeseon; Lee, Taek-Ho; Cho, Hyun; Jung, Dong Jin; Kim, Dai-Jin; Choi, In Young

2017-12-27

Background : Understanding the risk factors associated with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) is important to predict and diagnose the condition. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors that predict IGD based on psychological factors and Internet gaming characteristics; Methods : Online surveys were conducted between 26 November and 26 December 2014. There were 3568 Korean Internet game users among a total of 5003 respondents. We identified 481 IGD gamers and 3087 normal Internet gamers, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5) criteria. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify significant risk factors for IGD; Results : The following eight risk factors were found to be significantly associated with IGD: functional and dysfunctional impulsivity (odds ratio: 1.138), belief self-control (1.034), anxiety (1.086), pursuit of desired appetitive goals (1.105), money spent on gaming (1.005), weekday game time (1.081), offline community meeting attendance (2.060), and game community membership (1.393; p < 0.05 for all eight risk factors); Conclusions : These risk factors allow for the prediction and diagnosis of IGD. In the future, these risk factors could also be used to inform clinical services for IGD diagnosis and treatment.

The Relationship Between Socioeconomic Status and CV Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Quispe, Renato; Benziger, Catherine P.; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Howe, Laura D.; Checkley, William; Gilman, Robert H.; Smeeth, Liam; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Miranda, J. Jaime; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Casas, Juan P.; Smith, George Davey; Ebrahim, Shah; García, Héctor H.; Gilman, Robert H.; Huicho, Luis; Málaga, Germán; Miranda, J. Jaime; Montori, Víctor M.; Smeeth, Liam; Checkley, William; Diette, Gregory B.; Gilman, Robert H.; Huicho, Luis; León-Velarde, Fabiola; Rivera, María; Wise, Robert A.; Checkley, William; García, Héctor H.; Gilman, Robert H.; Miranda, J. Jaime; Sacksteder, Katherine

2016-01-01

Background Variations in the distribution of cardiovascular disease and risk factors by socioeconomic status (SES) have been described in affluent societies, yet a better understanding of these patterns is needed for most low- and middle-income countries. Objective This study sought to describe the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and SES using monthly family income, educational attainment, and assets index, in 4 Peruvian sites. Methods Baseline data from an age- and sex-stratified random sample of participants, ages ≥35 years, from 4 Peruvian sites (CRONICAS Cohort Study, 2010) were used. The SES indicators considered were monthly family income (n = 3,220), educational attainment (n = 3,598), and assets index (n = 3,601). Behavioral risk factors included current tobacco use, alcohol drinking, physical activity, daily intake of fruits and vegetables, and no control of salt intake. Cardiometabolic risk factors included obesity, elevated waist circumference, hypertension, insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high triglyceride levels. Results In the overall population, 41.6% reported a monthly family income education. Important differences were noted between the socioeconomic indicators: for example, higher income and higher scores on an asset index were associated with greater risk of obesity, whereas higher levels of education were associated with lower risk of obesity. In contrast, higher SES according to all 3 indicators was associated with higher levels of triglycerides. Conclusions The association between SES and cardiometabolic risk factors varies depending on the SES indicator used. These results highlight the need to contextualize risk factors by socioeconomic groups in Latin American settings. PMID:27102029

Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baxa, Jaromír; Horváth, R.; Vašíček, B.

2013-01-01

Roč. 9, č. 1 (2013), s. 117-138 ISSN 1572-3089 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Financial stress * Time-varying parameter model * Endogenous regressors Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.932, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/baxa-0395375.pdf

Adverse radiation effect after stereotactic radiosurgery for brain metastases: incidence, time course, and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Sneed, Penny K; Mendez, Joe; Vemer-van den Hoek, Johanna G M; Seymour, Zachary A; Ma, Lijun; Molinaro, Annette M; Fogh, Shannon E; Nakamura, Jean L; McDermott, Michael W

2015-08-01

The authors sought to determine the incidence, time course, and risk factors for overall adverse radiation effect (ARE) and symptomatic ARE after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases. All cases of brain metastases treated from 1998 through 2009 with Gamma Knife SRS at UCSF were considered. Cases with less than 3 months of follow-up imaging, a gap of more than 8 months in imaging during the 1st year, or inadequate imaging availability were excluded. Brain scans and pathology reports were reviewed to ensure consistent scoring of dates of ARE, treatment failure, or both; in case of uncertainty, the cause of lesion worsening was scored as indeterminate. Cumulative incidence of ARE and failure were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method with censoring at last imaging. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed. Among 435 patients and 2200 brain metastases evaluable, the median patient survival time was 17.4 months and the median lesion imaging follow-up was 9.9 months. Calculated on the basis of 2200 evaluable lesions, the rates of treatment failure, ARE, concurrent failure and ARE, and lesion worsening with indeterminate cause were 9.2%, 5.4%, 1.4%, and 4.1%, respectively. Among 118 cases of ARE, approximately 60% were symptomatic and 85% occurred 3-18 months after SRS (median 7.2 months). For 99 ARE cases managed without surgery or bevacizumab, the probabilities of improvement observed on imaging were 40%, 57%, and 76% at 6, 12, and 18 months after onset of ARE. The most important risk factors for ARE included prior SRS to the same lesion (with 20% 1-year risk of symptomatic ARE vs 3%, 4%, and 8% for no prior treatment, prior whole brain radiotherapy [WBRT], or concurrent WBRT) and any of these volume parameters: target, prescription isodose, 12-Gy, or 10-Gy volume. Excluding lesions treated with repeat SRS, the 1-year probabilities of ARE were 2.1 cm, target volume > 1.2 cm(3), prescription isodose volume > 1.8 cm(3

Risk factors for developing diabetic foot

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Estela Willrich Boell

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The goal of the present study is to identify the risk factors for developing diabetic foot. A cross-sectional study, with a convenience sample, developed with 70 individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM, registered in three basic health units in the municipality of Florianópolis/SC, Brazil, in the period from November 2010 to May 2011. Biometric data was collected regarding their sociodemographic, health and illness conditions. An assessment of the feet was also carried out. The average participant age was 66.17 years and time with diagnosed disease was under ten years (61.42%. The following risk factors were identified: advanced age; time of DM diagnosis; few years of schooling; overweight/obesity; inadequate diet; physical inactivity; inadequate metabolic control; lack of proper and specific foot care; and arterial hypertension. We conclude that the majority of the population presented one or more risk factors that favor the appearance of foot-related complications. doi: 10.5216/ree.v16i2.20460.

Analysis of risk factors in the development of retinopathy of prematurity.

Science.gov (United States)

Knezević, Sanja; Stojanović, Nadezda; Oros, Ana; Savić, Dragana; Simović, Aleksandra; Knezević, Jasmina

2011-01-01

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a multifactorial disease that occurs most frequently in very small and very sick preterm infants, and it has been identified as the major cause of childhood blindness. The aim of this study was to evaluate ROP incidence and risk factors associated with varying degrees of illness. The study was conducted at the Centre for Neonatology, Paediatric Clinic of the Clinical Centre Kragujevac, Serbia, in the period from June 2006 to December 2008. Ophthalmologic screening was performed in all children with body weight lower than 2000 g or gestational age lower than 36 weeks. We analyzed eighteen postnatal and six perinatal risk factors and the group correlations for each of the risk factors. Out of 317 children that were screened, 56 (17.7%) developed a mild form of ROP, while 68 (21.5%) developed a severe form. Univariate analysis revealed a large number of statistically significant risk factors for the development of ROP, especially the severe form. Multivariate logistical analysis further separated two independent risk factors: small birth weight (p = 0.001) and damage of central nervous system (p = 0.01). Independent risk factors for transition from mild to severe forms of ROP were identified as: small birth weight (p = 0.05) and perinatal risk factors (p = 0.02). Small birth weight and central nervous system damage were risk factors for the development of ROP, perinatal risk factors were identified as significant for transition from mild to severe form of ROP.

On the use of sibling recurrence risks to select environmental factors liable to interact with genetic risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Kazma, Rémi; Bonaïti-Pellié, Catherine; Norris, Jill M; Génin, Emmanuelle

2010-01-01

Gene-environment interactions are likely to be involved in the susceptibility to multifactorial diseases but are difficult to detect. Available methods usually concentrate on some particular genetic and environmental factors. In this paper, we propose a new method to determine whether a given exposure is susceptible to interact with unknown genetic factors. Rather than focusing on a specific genetic factor, the degree of familial aggregation is used as a surrogate for genetic factors. A test comparing the recurrence risks in sibs according to the exposure of indexes is proposed and its power is studied for varying values of model parameters. The Exposed versus Unexposed Recurrence Analysis (EURECA) is valuable for common diseases with moderate familial aggregation, only when the role of exposure has been clearly outlined. Interestingly, accounting for a sibling correlation for the exposure increases the power of EURECA. An application on a sample ascertained through one index affected with type 2 diabetes is presented where gene-environment interactions involving obesity and physical inactivity are investigated. Association of obesity with type 2 diabetes is clearly evidenced and a potential interaction involving this factor is suggested in Hispanics (P=0.045), whereas a clear gene-environment interaction is evidenced involving physical inactivity only in non-Hispanic whites (P=0.028). The proposed method might be of particular interest before genetic studies to help determine the environmental risk factors that will need to be accounted for to increase the power to detect genetic risk factors and to select the most appropriate samples to genotype.

Visualizing time-varying harmonics using filter banks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duque, C.A.; Da Silveira, P.M.; Ribeiro, P.F.

2011-01-01

Although it is well known that Fourier analysis is in reality only accurately applicable to steady state waveforms, it is a widely used tool to study and monitor time-varying signals, such as are commonplace in electrical power systems. The disadvantages of Fourier analysis, such as frequency

Stabilization of the Wave Equation with Boundary Time-Varying Delay

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Hao Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We study the stabilization of the wave equation with variable coefficients in a bounded domain and a time-varying delay term in the time-varying, weakly nonlinear boundary feedbacks. By the Riemannian geometry methods and a suitable assumption of nonlinearity, we obtain the uniform decay of the energy of the closed loop system.

Investigating Time-Varying Drivers of Grid Project Emissions Impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barrett, Emily L.; Thayer, Brandon L.; Pal, Seemita; Studarus, Karen E.

2017-11-15

The emissions consequences of smart grid technologies depend heavily on their context and vary not only by geographical location, but by time of year. The same technology operated to meet the same objective may increase the emissions associated with energy generation for part of the year and decrease emissions during other times. The Grid Project Impact Quantification (GridPIQ) tool provides the ability to estimate these seasonal variations and garner insight into the time-varying drivers of grid project emissions impacts. This work leverages GridPIQ to examine the emissions implications across years and seasons of adding energy storage technology to reduce daily peak demand in California and New York.

Risk factors for congenital heart diseases in Alexandria, Egypt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bassili, A.; Mokhtar, S.A.; Dabous, N.I.; Zaher, S.R.; Mokhtar, M.M.; Zaki, A.

2000-01-01

A matched case control study has been conducted in the children's hospitals in Alexandria, Egypt, during 2 years-period, aiming at investigating the risk factors for the occurrence of congenital heart diseases. Our results showed that the significant risk factors for developing any type of congenital heart disease and ventricular septal defects were: older paternal age at birth, positive consanguinity, positive family history, female sex hormones, irradiation, hazardous maternal occupation, diabetes mellitus and suburban or rural residence. However, some environmental/teratogenic factors were not implicated in the etiology of atrial septal defects or pulmonary stenosis. These findings strongly suggest that environmental factors vary according to the specific type of congenital heart disease. This study emphasizes on the need to instruct the public about the importance of pre-marital counselling and the deleterious effects of various teratogens in the environment

Risk Factors for Internet Gaming Disorder: Psychological Factors and Internet Gaming Characteristics

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Mi Jung Rho

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Understanding the risk factors associated with Internet gaming disorder (IGD is important to predict and diagnose the condition. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors that predict IGD based on psychological factors and Internet gaming characteristics; Methods: Online surveys were conducted between 26 November and 26 December 2014. There were 3568 Korean Internet game users among a total of 5003 respondents. We identified 481 IGD gamers and 3087 normal Internet gamers, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5 criteria. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify significant risk factors for IGD; Results: The following eight risk factors were found to be significantly associated with IGD: functional and dysfunctional impulsivity (odds ratio: 1.138, belief self-control (1.034, anxiety (1.086, pursuit of desired appetitive goals (1.105, money spent on gaming (1.005, weekday game time (1.081, offline community meeting attendance (2.060, and game community membership (1.393; p < 0.05 for all eight risk factors; Conclusions: These risk factors allow for the prediction and diagnosis of IGD. In the future, these risk factors could also be used to inform clinical services for IGD diagnosis and treatment.

Risk Factors for Internet Gaming Disorder: Psychological Factors and Internet Gaming Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyeseon; Lee, Taek-Ho; Cho, Hyun; Kim, Dai-Jin; Choi, In Young

2017-01-01

Background: Understanding the risk factors associated with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) is important to predict and diagnose the condition. The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors that predict IGD based on psychological factors and Internet gaming characteristics; Methods: Online surveys were conducted between 26 November and 26 December 2014. There were 3568 Korean Internet game users among a total of 5003 respondents. We identified 481 IGD gamers and 3087 normal Internet gamers, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5) criteria. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify significant risk factors for IGD; Results: The following eight risk factors were found to be significantly associated with IGD: functional and dysfunctional impulsivity (odds ratio: 1.138), belief self-control (1.034), anxiety (1.086), pursuit of desired appetitive goals (1.105), money spent on gaming (1.005), weekday game time (1.081), offline community meeting attendance (2.060), and game community membership (1.393; p < 0.05 for all eight risk factors); Conclusions: These risk factors allow for the prediction and diagnosis of IGD. In the future, these risk factors could also be used to inform clinical services for IGD diagnosis and treatment. PMID:29280953

Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

2017-01-01

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

Risk factors for overweight and obesity in children aged 2-6 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Kondolot, Meda; Poyrazoğlu, Serpil; Horoz, Duygu; Borlu, Arda; Altunay, Canan; Balcı, Elcin; Öztürk, Ahmet; Mazıcıoğlu, Mümtaz M; Kurtoğlu, Selim

2017-05-01

Understanding risk factors that may vary culturally can help improve preventive strategies for obesity. This is the first cross-sectional study aimed to determine the risk factors for overweight/obesity in children aged 2-6 years in a central Anatolian city in Turkey. A total of 1582 children (1351 healthy, 231 overweight/obese) aged 2-6 years were included from the Anthropometry of Turkish Children aged 0-6 years database. Age, gender, birth weight, birth order, mother's age, mother's body mass index (BMI), weight gain of mothers during pregnancy, presence of gestational diabetes, breastfeeding duration, history of formula feeding, mother's and father's education, mother's job, monthly income, smoking at home and physical activity, sleep duration and duration of television (TV) watching of the children were evaluated as independent risk factors. Logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate risk factors for overweight/obesity. Having a high family income compared to bad [odds ratio (OR)=1.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.237-3.106], increased the time of watching TV during the weekend (OR=1.094; 95% CI: 1.032-1.159), and similar physical activity level according to their peers compared to less (OR=2.957; 95% CI: 1.056-8.282) were found to be significantly associated with a higher risk of overweight/obesity in children aged 2-6 years old. The early childhood period seems to be important in the establishment of healthy behavioral patterns, especially limitation of TV watching and encouragement of physical activity. Obesogenic environment in families with high incomes need to be revealed.

Quantifying risk over the life course - latency, age-related susceptibility, and other time-varying exposure metrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Molin; Liao, Xiaomei; Laden, Francine; Spiegelman, Donna

2016-06-15

Identification of the latency period and age-related susceptibility, if any, is an important aspect of assessing risks of environmental, nutritional, and occupational exposures. We consider estimation and inference for latency and age-related susceptibility in relative risk and excess risk models. We focus on likelihood-based methods for point and interval estimation of the latency period and age-related windows of susceptibility coupled with several commonly considered exposure metrics. The method is illustrated in a study of the timing of the effects of constituents of air pollution on mortality in the Nurses' Health Study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Nonlinear recurrent neural networks for finite-time solution of general time-varying linear matrix equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Lin; Liao, Bolin; Li, Shuai; Chen, Ke

2018-02-01

In order to solve general time-varying linear matrix equations (LMEs) more efficiently, this paper proposes two nonlinear recurrent neural networks based on two nonlinear activation functions. According to Lyapunov theory, such two nonlinear recurrent neural networks are proved to be convergent within finite-time. Besides, by solving differential equation, the upper bounds of the finite convergence time are determined analytically. Compared with existing recurrent neural networks, the proposed two nonlinear recurrent neural networks have a better convergence property (i.e., the upper bound is lower), and thus the accurate solutions of general time-varying LMEs can be obtained with less time. At last, various different situations have been considered by setting different coefficient matrices of general time-varying LMEs and a great variety of computer simulations (including the application to robot manipulators) have been conducted to validate the better finite-time convergence of the proposed two nonlinear recurrent neural networks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Orthopedic Surgery among Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-based study to Identify Risk factors, Sex differences, and Time trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Richter, Michael; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L; Makol, Ashima

2017-12-20

To identify risk factors for large joint (LJS) versus small joint surgery (SJS) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and evaluate trends in surgery rates over time. A retrospective medical record review was performed of all orthopedic surgeries following first fulfillment of 1987 ACR criteria for adult-onset RA among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, USA in 1980-2013. Risk factors were examined using Cox models adjusted for age, sex and calendar year of RA incidence. Trends in incidence of joint surgeries were examined using Poisson regression models. A total of 1077 patients with RA (mean age 56 years, 69% female, 66% seropositive) were followed for a median of 10.7 years during which 112 (90 women) underwent at least one SJS and 204 (141 women) underwent at least one LJS. Risk factors included advanced age, rheumatoid factor and anti-CCP antibody positivity for both SJS and LJS, and BMI≥30 kg/m 2 for LJS. Risk factors for SJS and LJS at any time during follow-up included the presence of radiographic erosions, large joint swelling, and methotrexate use. SJS rates decreased by calendar year of incidence (hazard ratio 0.53; p=0.001), with significant decline in SJS after 1995. The cumulative incidence of SJS was higher in women than men (p=0.008). In recent years, there has been a significant decline in rates of SJS but not LJS in patients with RA. The incidence of SJS is higher among women. Traditional RA risk factors are strong predictors for SJS and LJS. Increasing age and obesity are predictive of LJS. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

2016-01-01

Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....

Yoga, Anxiety, and Some Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asim CENGIZ

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the effects of a yoga program on anxiety, and some cardiovascular risk factors. Forty - six elderly participants aged 40 – 51 years women. The yoga program was based on 3 times/week for 10 weeks a set of yoga techniques, in the form of asana (postures and deep relaxation technique, pranayama (breathing techniques and meditation three for 60 minutes three times a week. The level of anxiety and decreased the risk factors for cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVD. The yoga program reduced the level of anxiety and decreased the risk factors for cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVD in the experimental group. After 8 weeks of the yoga program. SBP, DBP, B MI, HR and WC values were improved. It is likely that the yoga practices of controlling body, mind, and spirit combine to provide useful physiological effects for healthy people and for people compromised by cardiovascular disease.

Risk factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

2007-01-01

This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

[Risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis].

Science.gov (United States)

Tapia-Rombo, C A; Velasco-Lavín, M R; Nieto-Caldelas, A

1993-09-01

The purpose of the present study is to compare risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) between two group: group A, newborns with the disease and group B, newborns with other diseases different from NEC, in order to know if these risk factors are more frequent or not in the first group. We assessed the clinical records of all the patients hospitalized in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and Neonatology Service of the La Raza General Hospital between 1987 and 1991 with the diagnosis of NEC. They were compared with 65 clinical records chosen at random of patients hospitalized in the same Unit with other diagnosis at the same time, and who were discharged by improvement or deceased. In all of them were look for known risk factors for NEC generally accepted such as: prematurity, neonatal asphyxia, poliglobulia, cyanotic congenital heart disease, patent ductus arteriosus, respiratory distress syndrome, catheterization of umbilical vessels, early feeding of elevated formula increases, exchange exchange transfusion, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, infection, etc. Just 25 records of the possible 50 with the diagnosis of NEC full filled inclusion criteria. There were no statistically significant difference in weight, sex, mortality and known risk factors of NEC between both groups. Were concluded that NEC is a disease of unknown etiology that should be studied more thoroughly. The known risk factors must be avoided because the patient susceptibility probably play an important role.

Clinicians' use of breast cancer risk assessment tools according to their perceived importance of breast cancer risk factors: an international survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Brédart, Anne; Kop, Jean-Luc; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cunningham, Alex P; De Pauw, Antoine; Tischkowitz, Marc; Ehrencrona, Hans; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Dolbeault, Sylvie; Rhiem, Kerstin; Easton, Douglas F; Devilee, Peter; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Schmutlzer, Rita

2018-03-05

The BOADICEA breast cancer (BC) risk assessment model and its associated Web Application v3 (BWA) tool are being extended to incorporate additional genetic and non-genetic BC risk factors. From an online survey through the BOADICEA website and UK, Dutch, French and Swedish national genetic societies, we explored the relationships between the usage frequencies of the BWA and six other common BC risk assessment tools and respondents' perceived importance of BC risk factors. Respondents (N = 443) varied in age, country and clinical seniority but comprised mainly genetics health professionals (82%) and BWA users (93%). Oncology professionals perceived reproductive, hormonal (exogenous) and lifestyle BC risk factors as more important in BC risk assessment compared to genetics professionals (p values personal BC history as BC risk factors. BWA use was positively related to the weight given to hormonal BC risk factors. The importance attributed to lifestyle and BMI BC risk factors was not associated with the use of BWA or any of the other tools. Next version of the BWA encompassing additional BC risk factors will facilitate more comprehensive BC risk assessment in genetics and oncology practice.

Continuous time modelling with individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Voelkle, Manuel C; Oud, Johan H L

2013-02-01

When designing longitudinal studies, researchers often aim at equal intervals. In practice, however, this goal is hardly ever met, with different time intervals between assessment waves and different time intervals between individuals being more the rule than the exception. One of the reasons for the introduction of continuous time models by means of structural equation modelling has been to deal with irregularly spaced assessment waves (e.g., Oud & Delsing, 2010). In the present paper we extend the approach to individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes. In addition, we show not only that equal intervals are unnecessary but also that it can be advantageous to use unequal sampling intervals, in particular when the sampling rate is low. Two examples are provided to support our arguments. In the first example we compare a continuous time model of a bivariate coupled process with varying time intervals to a standard discrete time model to illustrate the importance of accounting for the exact time intervals. In the second example the effect of different sampling intervals on estimating a damped linear oscillator is investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. We conclude that it is important to account for individually varying time intervals, and encourage researchers to conceive of longitudinal studies with different time intervals within and between individuals as an opportunity rather than a problem. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Reduced risk of breast cancer associated with recreational physical activity varies by HER2 status

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Huiyan; Xu, Xinxin; Ursin, Giske; Simon, Michael S; Marchbanks, Polly A; Malone, Kathleen E; Lu, Yani; McDonald, Jill A; Folger, Suzanne G; Weiss, Linda K; Sullivan-Halley, Jane; Deapen, Dennis M; Press, Michael F; Bernstein, Leslie

2015-01-01

Convincing epidemiologic evidence indicates that physical activity is inversely associated with breast cancer risk. Whether this association varies by the tumor protein expression status of the estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), or p53 is unclear. We evaluated the effects of recreational physical activity on risk of invasive breast cancer classified by the four biomarkers, fitting multivariable unconditional logistic regression models to data from 1195 case and 2012 control participants in the population-based Women’s Contraceptive and Reproductive Experiences Study. Self-reported recreational physical activity at different life periods was measured as average annual metabolic equivalents of energy expenditure [MET]-hours per week. Our biomarker-specific analyses showed that lifetime recreational physical activity was negatively associated with the risks of ER-positive (ER+) and of HER2-negative (HER2−) subtypes (both P trend ≤ 0.04), but not with other subtypes (all P trend > 0.10). Analyses using combinations of biomarkers indicated that risk of invasive breast cancer varied only by HER2 status. Risk of HER2–breast cancer decreased with increasing number of MET-hours of recreational physical activity in each specific life period examined, although some trend tests were only marginally statistically significant (all P trend ≤ 0.06). The test for homogeneity of trends (HER2– vs. HER2+) reached statistical significance only when evaluating physical activity during the first 10 years after menarche (P homogeneity = 0.03). Our data suggest that physical activity reduces risk of invasive breast cancers that lack HER2 overexpression, increasing our understanding of the biological mechanisms by which physical activity acts

Lyapunov Functions to Caputo Fractional Neural Networks with Time-Varying Delays

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Ravi Agarwal

2018-05-01

Full Text Available One of the main properties of solutions of nonlinear Caputo fractional neural networks is stability and often the direct Lyapunov method is used to study stability properties (usually these Lyapunov functions do not depend on the time variable. In connection with the Lyapunov fractional method we present a brief overview of the most popular fractional order derivatives of Lyapunov functions among Caputo fractional delay differential equations. These derivatives are applied to various types of neural networks with variable coefficients and time-varying delays. We show that quadratic Lyapunov functions and their Caputo fractional derivatives are not applicable in some cases when one studies stability properties. Some sufficient conditions for stability of equilibrium of nonlinear Caputo fractional neural networks with time dependent transmission delays, time varying self-regulating parameters of all units and time varying functions of the connection between two neurons in the network are obtained. The cases of time varying Lipschitz coefficients as well as nonLipschitz activation functions are studied. We illustrate our theory on particular nonlinear Caputo fractional neural networks.

The necessity for a time local dimension in systems with time-varying attractors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Særmark, Knud H; Ashkenazy, Y; Levitan, J

1997-01-01

We show that a simple non-linear system for ordinary differential equations may possess a time-varying attractor dimension. This indicates that it is infeasible to characterize EEG and MEG time series with a single time global dimension. We suggest another measure for the description of non...

Tracking time-varying parameters with local regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Joensen, Alfred Karsten; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov

2000-01-01

This paper shows that the recursive least-squares (RLS) algorithm with forgetting factor is a special case of a varying-coe\\$cient model, and a model which can easily be estimated via simple local regression. This observation allows us to formulate a new method which retains the RLS algorithm, bu......, but extends the algorithm by including polynomial approximations. Simulation results are provided, which indicates that this new method is superior to the classical RLS method, if the parameter variations are smooth....

Analysis of risk factors in the development of retinopathy of prematurity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Knežević Sanja

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP is a multifactorial disease that occurs most frequently in very small and very sick preterm infants, and it has been identified as the major cause of childhood blindness. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate ROP incidence and risk factors associated with varying degrees of illness. Methods. The study was conducted at the Centre for Neonatology, Paediatric Clinic of the Clinical Centre Kragujevac, Serbia, in the period from June 2006 to December 2008. Ophthalmologic screening was performed in all children with body weight lower than 2000 g or gestational age lower than 36 weeks. We analyzed eighteen postnatal and six perinatal risk factors and the group correlations for each of the risk factors. Results. Out of 317 children that were screened, 56 (17.7% developed a mild form of ROP, while 68 (21.5% developed a severe form. Univariate analysis revealed a large number of statistically significant risk factors for the development of ROP, especially the severe form. Multivariate logistical analysis further separated two independent risk factors: small birth weight (p=0.001 and damage of central nervous system (p=0.01. Independent risk factors for transition from mild to severe forms of ROP were identified as: small birth weight (p=0.05 and perinatal risk factors (p=0.02. Conclusion. Small birth weight and central nervous system damage were risk factors for the development of ROP, perinatal risk factors were identified as significant for transition from mild to severe form of ROP.

Sensation seeking related to varied definition of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dastol, O.U.; Drottz-Sjoberg, B.M.

1998-01-01

This pilot study is based on the assumption that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. It has been shown in previous risk perception studies that some people report their definition or normal use of the concept of risk as e.g. mainly probability, a combination of probability and consequences, mainly consequences, or due to the nature of the event (Drottz-Sjoeberg, 1991). Another field of research has developed measures for personality traits, i.e. facets of Sensation Seeking; Disinhibition, Thrill and Adventure Seeking, Experience Seeking, and Boredom Susceptibility (Zuckerman, 1994). The design of the present study involved three independent groups of first year psychology students (N=93). They were presented with one of three response formats regarding their normal use of the word risk, i.e. an open-ended format, separate ratings of four items suggesting a definition of risk on five-point scales, and one single five-point scale with the extremes labelled probability and consequences, and with their combination as the scale mid-point. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was 'danger', but among the responses were also 'chance', and 'outcome'. Another finding was that people who defined risk as 'outcome' and 'chance', using the open-ended format tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale than those who defined risk as 'danger'. In addition, subjects who defined risk as the 'combination' of probability and consequences, using other response formats, also tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS), especially as compared to those defining risk as the 'probability' of an event. (authors)

Invariant operator theory for the single-photon energy in time-varying media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong-Ryeol, Choi

2010-01-01

After the birth of quantum mechanics, the notion in physics that the frequency of light is the only factor that determines the energy of a single photon has played a fundamental role. However, under the assumption that the theory of Lewis–Riesenfeld invariants is applicable in quantum optics, it is shown in the present work that this widely accepted notion is valid only for light described by a time-independent Hamiltonian, i.e., for light in media satisfying the conditions, ε(i) = ε(0), μ(t) = μ(0), and σ(t) = 0 simultaneously. The use of the Lewis–Riesenfeld invariant operator method in quantum optics leads to a marvelous result: the energy of a single photon propagating through time-varying linear media exhibits nontrivial time dependence without a change of frequency. (general)

Flexible time-varying filter banks

Science.gov (United States)

Tuncer, Temel E.; Nguyen, Truong Q.

1993-09-01

Linear phase maximally flat FIR Butterworth filter approximations are discussed and a new filter design method is introduced. This variable cutoff filter design method uses the cosine modulated versions of a prototype filter. The design procedure is simple and different variants of this procedure can be used to obtain close to optimum linear phase filters. Using this method, flexible time-varying filter banks with good reconstruction error are introduced. These types of oversampled filter banks have small magnitude error which can be easily controlled by the appropriate choice of modulation frequency. This error can be further decreased by magnitude equalization without increasing the computational complexity considerably. Two dimensional design examples are also given.

Risk factor for febrile seizures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Odalović Dragica

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Febrile seizures are the most frequent neurological disorder in the childhood. According to American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP, they have been defined as seizures provoked by high temperature in children aged between 6 months and 5 years, without previous history of afebrile seizures, intracranial infections and other possible causes of seizures. Seizures can be typical and atypical, according to the characteristics. Pathogenesis of this disorder has not been clarified yet, and it is believed to be a combination of genetic factors, high body temperature and brain maturation. The risk factors for recurrence of febrile seizures are: age in which seizures appeared for the first time, epilepsy in the first degree relative, febrile seizures in the first degree relative, frequent diseases with fever and low body temperature on the beginning of seizures. The frequency of recurrent seizures The risk for occurrence of epilepsy in children with simple seizures is about 1-1.5%, which is slightly higher compared to general population, while it increases to 4-15% in patients with complex seizures. However, there is no evidence that therapy prevents occurrence of epilepsy. When the prevention of recurrent seizures is considered, it is necessary to separate simple from complex seizures. The aim of this paper was to analyze the most important risk factors for febrile seizures, and to evaluate their impact on occurrence of recurrent seizures. Our study included 125 children with febrile seizures, aged from 6 months to 5 years. The presence of febrile seizures and epilepsy in the first degree relative has been noted in 22% of children. Typical febrile seizures were observed in 76% of cases, and atypical in 24%. Most patients had only one seizure (73.6%. Children, who had seizure earlier in life, had more frequent recurrences. Both risk factors were present in 25% of patients, while 68% of patients had only one risk factor. For the children with febrile disease

Risk Factors for Brachial Plexus Birth Injury

Science.gov (United States)

Louden, Emily; Marcotte, Michael; Mehlman, Charles; Lippert, William; Huang, Bin; Paulson, Andrea

2018-01-01

Over the course of decades, the incidence of brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI) has increased despite advances in healthcare which would seem to assist in decreasing the rate. The aim of this study is to identify previously unknown risk factors for BPBI and the risk factors with potential to guide preventative measures. A case control study of 52 mothers who had delivered a child with a BPBI injury and 132 mothers who had delivered without BPBI injury was conducted. Univariate, multivariable and logistic regressions identified risk factors and their combinations. The odds of BPBI were 2.5 times higher when oxytocin was used and 3.7 times higher when tachysystole occurred. The odds of BPBI injury are increased when tachysystole and oxytocin occur during the mother’s labor. Logistic regression identified a higher risk for BPBI when more than three of the following variables (>30 lbs gained during the pregnancy, stage 2 labor >61.5 min, mother’s age >26.4 years, tachysystole, or fetal malpresentation) were present in any combination. PMID:29596309

Risk Factors for Brachial Plexus Birth Injury

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily Louden

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Over the course of decades, the incidence of brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI has increased despite advances in healthcare which would seem to assist in decreasing the rate. The aim of this study is to identify previously unknown risk factors for BPBI and the risk factors with potential to guide preventative measures. A case control study of 52 mothers who had delivered a child with a BPBI injury and 132 mothers who had delivered without BPBI injury was conducted. Univariate, multivariable and logistic regressions identified risk factors and their combinations. The odds of BPBI were 2.5 times higher when oxytocin was used and 3.7 times higher when tachysystole occurred. The odds of BPBI injury are increased when tachysystole and oxytocin occur during the mother’s labor. Logistic regression identified a higher risk for BPBI when more than three of the following variables (>30 lbs gained during the pregnancy, stage 2 labor >61.5 min, mother’s age >26.4 years, tachysystole, or fetal malpresentation were present in any combination.

Smoldering multiple myeloma risk factors for progression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørrig, Rasmus; Klausen, Tobias W; Salomo, Morten

2016-01-01

Several risk scores for disease progression in Smoldering Multiple Myeloma (SMM) patients have been proposed, however, all have been developed using single center registries. To examine risk factors for time to progression (TTP) to Multiple Myeloma (MM) for SMM we analyzed a nationwide population......-based cohort of 321 newly diagnosed SMM patients registered within the Danish Multiple Myeloma Registry between 2005 and 2014. Significant univariable risk factors for TTP were selected for multivariable Cox regression analyses. We found that both an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis significantly influenced......-high risk of transformation to MM. Using only immunoparesis and M-protein ≥ 30g/l, we created a scoring system to identify low, intermediate and high risk SMM. This first population-based study of SMM patients confirms that an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis remain important risk factors for progression...

Time-Varying Networks of Inter-Ictal Discharging Reveal Epileptogenic Zone.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Luyan; Liang, Yi; Li, Fali; Sun, Hongbin; Peng, Wenjing; Du, Peishan; Si, Yajing; Song, Limeng; Yu, Liang; Xu, Peng

2017-01-01

The neuronal synchronous discharging may cause an epileptic seizure. Currently, most of the studies conducted to investigate the mechanism of epilepsy are based on EEGs or functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) recorded during the ictal discharging or the resting-state, and few studies have probed into the dynamic patterns during the inter-ictal discharging that are much easier to record in clinical applications. Here, we propose a time-varying network analysis based on adaptive directed transfer function to uncover the dynamic brain network patterns during the inter-ictal discharging. In addition, an algorithm based on the time-varying outflow of information derived from the network analysis is developed to detect the epileptogenic zone. The analysis performed revealed the time-varying network patterns during different stages of inter-ictal discharging; the epileptogenic zone was activated prior to the discharge onset then worked as the source to propagate the activity to other brain regions. Consistence between the epileptogenic zones detected by our proposed approach and the actual epileptogenic zones proved that time-varying network analysis could not only reveal the underlying neural mechanism of epilepsy, but also function as a useful tool in detecting the epileptogenic zone based on the EEGs in the inter-ictal discharging.

A classification of risk factors in serious juvenile offenders and the relation between patterns of risk factors and recidivism.

Science.gov (United States)

Mulder, Eva; Brand, Eddy; Bullens, Ruud; Van Marle, Hjalmar

2010-02-01

There has been a lot of research on risk factors for recidivism among juvenile offenders, in general, and on individual risk factors, but less focus on subgroups of serious juvenile offenders and prediction of recidivism within these. To find an optimal classification of risk items and to test the predictive value of the resultant factors with respect to severity of recidivism among serious juvenile offenders. Seventy static and dynamic risk factors in 1154 juvenile offenders were registered with the Juvenile Forensic Profile. Recidivism data were collected on 728 of these offenders with a time at risk of at least 2 years. After factor analysis, independent sample t-tests were used to indicate differences between recidivists and non-recidivists. Logistic multiple linear regression analyses were used to test the potential predictive value of the factors for violent or serious recidivism. A nine-factor solution best accounted for the data. The factors were: antisocial behaviour during treatment, sexual problems, family problems, axis-1 psychopathology, offence characteristics, conscience and empathy, intellectual and social capacities, social network, and substance abuse. Regression analysis showed that the factors antisocial behaviour during treatment, family problems and axis-1 psychopathology were associated with seriousness of recidivism. The significance of family problems and antisocial behaviour during treatments suggest that specific attention to these factors may be important in reducing recidivism. The fact that antisocial behaviour during treatment consists mainly of dynamic risk factors is hopeful as these can be influenced by treatment. Consideration of young offenders by subgroup rather than as a homogenous population is likely to yield the best information about risk of serious re-offending and the management of that risk.

Frequency variations of gravity waves interacting with a time-varying tide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, C.M.; Zhang, S.D.; Yi, F.; Huang, K.M.; Gan, Q.; Gong, Y. [Wuhan Univ., Hubei (China). School of Electronic Information; Ministry of Education, Wuhan, Hubei (China). Key Lab. of Geospace Environment and Geodesy; State Observatory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zhang, Y.H. [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). College of Hydrometeorolgy

2013-11-01

Using a nonlinear, 2-D time-dependent numerical model, we simulate the propagation of gravity waves (GWs) in a time-varying tide. Our simulations show that when aGW packet propagates in a time-varying tidal-wind environment, not only its intrinsic frequency but also its ground-based frequency would change significantly. The tidal horizontal-wind acceleration dominates the GW frequency variation. Positive (negative) accelerations induce frequency increases (decreases) with time. More interestingly, tidal-wind acceleration near the critical layers always causes the GW frequency to increase, which may partially explain the observations that high-frequency GW components are more dominant in the middle and upper atmosphere than in the lower atmosphere. The combination of the increased ground-based frequency of propagating GWs in a time-varying tidal-wind field and the transient nature of the critical layer induced by a time-varying tidal zonal wind creates favorable conditions for GWs to penetrate their originally expected critical layers. Consequently, GWs have an impact on the background atmosphere at much higher altitudes than expected, which indicates that the dynamical effects of tidal-GW interactions are more complicated than usually taken into account by GW parameterizations in global models.

Risk Factors for Scleroderma

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... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

Risk Factors and Prevention

Science.gov (United States)

... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

Intrinsic Risk Factors of Falls in Elderly

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yasmin Amatullah

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Falls are common geriatric problems. The risk factors of falls are the intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors. Studies on falls are scarcely conducted in Indonesia, especially in Bandung. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the intrinsic risk factors of falls among elderly. Methods: A descriptive study was carried out from August to October 2013 at the Geriatric Clinic of Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital Bandung. Fifty three participants were selected according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria using consecutive sampling. The determined variables in this study were classification of the risk of falls, demographic profile, history of falls, disease, and medications. After the selection, the participants were tested by Timed up-and-go test (TUGT. Moreover, an interview and analysis of medical records were carried out to discover the risk factors of falls. The collected data were analyzed and presented in the form of percentages shown in tables. Results: From 53 patients, women (35.66% were considered to have higher risk of fall than men (18.34%. The majority of patients (66% with the risk of fall were from the age group 60–74 years. The major diseases suffered by patients were hypertension, osteoarthritis and diabetes mellitus. Drugs that were widely used were antihypertensive drugs; analgesic and antipyretic drugs and antidiabetic drugs. Conclusions: There are various intrinsic risk factors of falls in elderly and each of the elderly has more than one intrinsic risk factor of falls.

Modeling polar cap F-region patches using time varying convection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sojka, J.J.; Bowline, M.D.; Schunk, R.W.; Decker, D.T.; Valladares, C.E.; Sheehan, R.; Anderson, D.N.; Heelis, R.A.

1993-01-01

Here the authors present the results of computerized simulations of the polar cap regions which were able to model the formation of polar cap patches. They used the Utah State University Time-Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) and the Phillips Laboratory (PL) F-region models in this work. By allowing a time varying magnetospheric electric field in the models, they were able to generate the patches. This time varying field generates a convection in the ionosphere. This convection is similar to convective changes observed in the ionosphere at times of southward pointing interplanetary magnetic field, due to changes in the B y component of the IMF

Risk Factors for Hip Fracture in Japanese Older Adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takashi Yamashita

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Risk factors for hip fracture in Japanese older populations are understudied compared with Western countries arguably due to the relatively lower prevalence rates in Japan. Nationally representative data from the Nihon University Japanese Longitudinal Study of Aging were analyzed using logistic regression to examine possible risk factors of hip fractures, separately for older women (n = 2,859 and older men (n = 2,108. Results showed that older Japanese women with difficulty bending their knees (OR = 1.9, with diabetes (OR = 1.7 times, and/or with more activity of daily living limitations (OR = 1.1 had higher risks of hip fracture. Older Japanese men with difficulty bending their knees (OR = 2.6, who use more external prescription drugs (OR = 1.9, and with cancer (OR = 2.0 times had higher risks of hip fracture. Further considerations of gender- and culture-specific factors along with the identified risk factors may provide insights into future intervention programs for hip fracture in Japanese older populations.

Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G

2017-01-01

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.

Risk factors for recurrent spontaneous epistaxis.

Science.gov (United States)

Abrich, Victor; Brozek, Annabelle; Boyle, Timothy R; Chyou, Po-Huang; Yale, Steven H

2014-12-01

To identify risk factors associated with spontaneous recurrent epistaxis. This was a retrospective cohort study assessing patients in the Marshfield Clinic system diagnosed as having epistaxis between January 1, 1991, and January 1, 2011. There were 461 cases with at least 2 episodes of spontaneous epistaxis within 3 years and 912 controls with only 1 episode in the same time frame. More than 50 potential risk factors were investigated, including demographic features, substance use, nasal anatomical abnormalities, nasal infectious and inflammatory processes, medical comorbidities, medications, and laboratory values. A Cox proportional hazards regression modeling approach was used to calculate hazard ratios of epistaxis recurrence. Traditional risk factors for epistaxis, including nasal perforation, nasal septum deviation, rhinitis, sinusitis, and upper respiratory tract infection, did not increase the risk of recurrence. Significant risk factors for recurrent epistaxis included congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and a history of anemia. Warfarin use increased the risk of recurrence, independent of international normalized ratio. Aspirin and clopidogrel were not found to increase the risk of recurrence. Few major adverse cardiovascular events were observed within 30 days of the first epistaxis event. Congestive heart failure is an underappreciated risk factor for recurrent epistaxis. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus may induce atherosclerotic changes in the nasal vessels, making them friable and more at risk for bleeding. Patients with recurrent epistaxis may also be more susceptible to developing anemia. Physicians should promote antiplatelet and antithrombotic medication adherence despite an increased propensity for recurrent epistaxis to prevent major adverse cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk and Protective Factors in the Lives of Transgender/Gender Nonconforming Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenberg, Marla E; Gower, Amy L; McMorris, Barbara J; Rider, G Nicole; Shea, Glynis; Coleman, Eli

2017-10-01

Research suggests that transgender and gender nonconforming (TGNC) youth may be at greatly increased risk of high-risk health behaviors compared with cisgender youth, but existing studies are limited by convenience samples and small numbers. This study uses a large school-based sample of adolescents to describe the prevalence of TGNC identity, associations with health risk behaviors and protective factors, and differences across birth-assigned sex. This study analyzes existing surveillance data provided by 9th and 11th grade students in Minnesota in 2016 (N = 81,885). Students who were transgender, genderqueer, genderfluid, or unsure about their gender identity (TGNC) were compared with those who were not, using χ 2 and t-tests. Outcome measures included four domains of high-risk behaviors and experiences and four protective factors. The prevalence of TGNC identity was 2.7% (n = 2,168) and varied significantly across gender, race/ethnicity, and economic indicators. Involvement in all types of risk behaviors and experiences was significantly higher, and reports of four protective factors were significantly lower among TGNC than cisgender youth. For example, almost two-thirds (61.3%) of TGNC youth reported suicidal ideation, which is over three times higher than cisgender youth (20.0%, χ 2  = 1959.9, p < .001). Among TGNC youth, emotional distress and bullying experience were significantly more common among birth-assigned females than males. This research presents the first large-scale, population-based evidence of substantial health disparities for TGNC adolescents in the United States, highlighting numerous multilevel points of intervention through established protective factors. Health care providers are advised to act as allies by creating a safe space for young people, bolstering protective factors, and supporting their healthy development. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Risk factors for anorexia in children].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wei-Xiao; Lang, Jun-Feng; Zhang, Qin-Feng

2016-11-01

To investigate the risk factors for anorexia in children, and to reduce the prevalence of anorexia in children. A questionnaire survey and a case-control study were used to collect the general information of 150 children with anorexia (case group) and 150 normal children (control group). Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic stepwise regression analysis were performed to identify the risk factors for anorexia in children. The results of the univariate analysis showed significant differences between the case and control groups in the age in months when supplementary food were added, feeding pattern, whether they liked meat, vegetables and salty food, whether they often took snacks and beverages, whether they liked to play while eating, and whether their parents asked them to eat food on time (Panorexia in children. Liking of meat (OR=0.093) and vegetables (OR=0.272) and eating on time required by parents (OR=0.079) were protective factors against anorexia in children. Timely addition of supplementary food, a proper diet, and development of children's proper eating and living habits can reduce the incidence of anorexia in children.

Electromagnetic radiation in a time-varying background medium

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Budko, N.V.

2009-01-01

Analytical solutions are presented for the electromagnetic radiation by an arbitrary pulsed source into a homogeneous time-varying background medium. In the constant-impedance case an explicit radiation formula is obtained for the synchronous permittivity and permeability described by any positive

Housing Cycles in Switzerland - A Time-Varying Approach

OpenAIRE

Drechsel, Dirk

2015-01-01

In light of the strong increase of house prices in Switzerland, we analyze the effects of mortgage rate shocks, changes in the interplay between housing demand and supply and GDP growth on house prices for the time period 1981- 2014. We employ Bayesian time-varying coefficients vector autoregressions to allow different monetary and immigration regimes over time. A number of structural changes, such as regulatory changes in the aftermath of the 1990s real estate crisis, the introduction of fre...

Night shift work at specific age ranges and chronic disease risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Ramin, Cody; Devore, Elizabeth E; Wang, Weike; Pierre-Paul, Jeffrey; Wegrzyn, Lani R; Schernhammer, Eva S

2014-01-01

Objectives We examined the association of night shift work history and age when night shift work was performed with cancer and cardiovascular disease risk factors among 54 724 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) II. Methods We calculated age-adjusted and socioeconomic status-adjusted means and percentages for cancer and cardiovascular risk factors in 2009 across categories of night shift work history. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for key risk factors among 54 724 participants (72% ever shift workers). We further examined these associations by age (20–25, 26–35, 36– 45 and 46+ years) at which shift work was performed. Results Ever night shift workers had increased odds of obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2; OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.43); higher caffeine intake (≥131 mg/day; OR=1.16, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.22) and total calorie intake (≥1715 kcal/day; OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.13); current smoking (OR=1.30, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.42); and shorter sleep durations (≤7 h of sleep/day; OR=1.19, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.24) compared to never night shift workers. These estimates varied depending on age at which night work was performed, with a suggestion that night shift work before age 25 was associated with fewer risk factors compared to night shift work at older ages. Conclusions Our results indicate that night shift work may contribute to an adverse chronic disease risk profile, and that risk factors may vary depending on the age at which night shift work was performed. PMID:25261528

Cardiovascular risk factors and events in women with androgen excess.

Science.gov (United States)

Macut, D; Antić, I B; Bjekić-Macut, J

2015-03-01

Androgen excess (AE) was approximated to be present in 7% of the adult population of women. Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most prevalent among them, followed by idiopathic hirsutism (IH), congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), hyperandrogenic insulin-resistant acanthosis nigricans (HAIRAN) syndrome, and androgen-secreting neoplasms (ASNs). Increased cardiovascular risk was implicated in women with AE. Serum testosterone independently increases risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and correlates even with indices of subclinical atherosclerosis in various populations of postmenopausal women. Hyperandrogenism in PCOS is closely related to the aggravation of abdominal obesity, and together with insulin resistance forming the metabolic core for the development of CVD. However, phenotypic variability of PCOS generates significant influence on the cardiometabolic risks. Numerous risk factors in PCOS lead to 5-7 times higher risk for CVD and over 2-fold higher risk for coronary heart disease and stroke. However, issue on the cardiometabolic risk in postmenopausal women with hyperandrogenic history is still challenging. There is a significant overlapping in the CVD characteristics of women with PCOS and variants of CAH. Relevant clinical data on the prevalence and cardiometabolic risk and events in women with IH, HAIRAN syndrome or ASNs are scarce. The effects of various oral contraceptives (OCs) and antiandrogenic compounds on metabolic profile are varying, and could be related to the selected populations and different therapy regiments mainly conducted in women with PCOS. It is assumed relation of OCs containing antiandrogenic progestins to the increased risk of cardiovascular and thromboembolic events.

Modifiable risk factors for schizophrenia and autism--shared risk factors impacting on brain development.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlyn, Jess; Duhig, Michael; McGrath, John; Scott, James

2013-05-01

Schizophrenia and autism are two poorly understood clinical syndromes that differ in age of onset and clinical profile. However, recent genetic and epidemiological research suggests that these two neurodevelopmental disorders share certain risk factors. The aims of this review are to describe modifiable risk factors that have been identified in both disorders, and, where available, collate salient systematic reviews and meta-analyses that have examined shared risk factors. Based on searches of Medline, Embase and PsycINFO, inspection of review articles and expert opinion, we first compiled a set of candidate modifiable risk factors associated with autism. Where available, we next collated systematic-reviews (with or without meta-analyses) related to modifiable risk factors associated with both autism and schizophrenia. We identified three modifiable risk factors that have been examined in systematic reviews for both autism and schizophrenia. Advanced paternal age was reported as a risk factor for schizophrenia in a single meta-analysis and as a risk factor in two meta-analyses for autism. With respect to pregnancy and birth complications, for autism one meta-analysis identified maternal diabetes and bleeding during pregnancy as risks factors for autism whilst a meta-analysis of eight studies identified obstetric complications as a risk factor for schizophrenia. Migrant status was identified as a risk factor for both autism and schizophrenia. Two separate meta-analyses were identified for each disorder. Despite distinct clinical phenotypes, the evidence suggests that at least some non-genetic risk factors are shared between these two syndromes. In particular, exposure to drugs, nutritional excesses or deficiencies and infectious agents lend themselves to public health interventions. Studies are now needed to quantify any increase in risk of either autism or schizophrenia that is associated with these modifiable environmental factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc

Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

Stroke - risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

... oxygen. Brain cells can die, causing lasting damage. Risk factors are things that increase your chance of ... a disease or condition. This article discusses the risk factors for stroke and things you can do ...

Time varying, multivariate volume data reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahrens, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Fout, Nathaniel [UC DAVIS; Ma, Kwan - Liu [UC DAVIS

2010-01-01

Large-scale supercomputing is revolutionizing the way science is conducted. A growing challenge, however, is understanding the massive quantities of data produced by large-scale simulations. The data, typically time-varying, multivariate, and volumetric, can occupy from hundreds of gigabytes to several terabytes of storage space. Transferring and processing volume data of such sizes is prohibitively expensive and resource intensive. Although it may not be possible to entirely alleviate these problems, data compression should be considered as part of a viable solution, especially when the primary means of data analysis is volume rendering. In this paper we present our study of multivariate compression, which exploits correlations among related variables, for volume rendering. Two configurations for multidimensional compression based on vector quantization are examined. We emphasize quality reconstruction and interactive rendering, which leads us to a solution using graphics hardware to perform on-the-fly decompression during rendering. In this paper we present a solution which addresses the need for data reduction in large supercomputing environments where data resulting from simulations occupies tremendous amounts of storage. Our solution employs a lossy encoding scheme to acrueve data reduction with several options in terms of rate-distortion behavior. We focus on encoding of multiple variables together, with optional compression in space and time. The compressed volumes can be rendered directly with commodity graphics cards at interactive frame rates and rendering quality similar to that of static volume renderers. Compression results using a multivariate time-varying data set indicate that encoding multiple variables results in acceptable performance in the case of spatial and temporal encoding as compared to independent compression of variables. The relative performance of spatial vs. temporal compression is data dependent, although temporal compression has the

Quantifying Risk Over the Life Course – Latency, Age-Related Susceptibility, and Other Time-Varying Exposure Metrics

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Molin; Liao, Xiaomei; Laden, Francine; Spiegelman, Donna

2016-01-01

Identification of the latency period and age-related susceptibility, if any, is an important aspect of assessing risks of environmental, nutritional and occupational exposures. We consider estimation and inference for latency and age-related susceptibility in relative risk and excess risk models. We focus on likelihood-based methods for point and interval estimation of the latency period and age-related windows of susceptibility coupled with several commonly considered exposure metrics. The method is illustrated in a study of the timing of the effects of constituents of air pollution on mortality in the Nurses’ Health Study. PMID:26750582

A Tentative Application Of Morphological Filters To Time-Varying Images

Science.gov (United States)

Billard, D.; Poquillon, B.

1989-03-01

In this paper, morphological filters, which are commonly used to process either 2D or multidimensional static images, are generalized to the analysis of time-varying image sequence. The introduction of the time dimension induces then interesting prop-erties when designing such spatio-temporal morphological filters. In particular, the specification of spatio-temporal structuring ele-ments (equivalent to time-varying spatial structuring elements) can be adjusted according to the temporal variations of the image sequences to be processed : this allows to derive specific morphological transforms to perform noise filtering or moving objects discrimination on dynamic images viewed by a non-stationary sensor. First, a brief introduction to the basic principles underlying morphological filters will be given. Then, a straightforward gener-alization of these principles to time-varying images will be pro-posed. This will lead us to define spatio-temporal opening and closing and to introduce some of their possible applications to process dynamic images. At last, preliminary results obtained us-ing a natural forward looking infrared (FUR) image sequence are presented.

The social patterns of a biological risk factor for disease: race, gender, socioeconomic position, and C-reactive protein.

Science.gov (United States)

Herd, Pamela; Karraker, Amelia; Friedman, Elliot

2012-07-01

Understand the links between race and C-reactive protein (CRP), with special attention to gender differences and the role of class and behavioral risk factors as mediators. This study utilizes the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project data, a nationally representative study of older Americans aged 57-85 to explore two research questions. First, what is the relative strength of socioeconomic versus behavioral risk factors in explaining race differences in CRP levels? Second, what role does gender play in understanding race differences? Does the relative role of socioeconomic and behavioral risk factors in explaining race differences vary when examining men and women separately? When examining men and women separately, socioeconomic and behavioral risk factor mediators vary in their importance. Indeed, racial differences in CRP among men aged 57-74 are little changed after adjusting for both socioeconomic and behavioral risk factors with levels 35% higher for black men as compared to white men. For women aged 57-74, however, behavioral risk factors explain 30% of the relationship between race and CRP. The limited explanatory power of socioeconomic position and, particularly, behavioral risk factors, in elucidating the relationship between race and CRP among men, signals the need for research to examine additional mediators, including more direct measures of stress and discrimination.

External risk factors affecting construction costs

Science.gov (United States)

Mubarak, Husin, Saiful; Oktaviati, Mutia

2017-11-01

Some risk factors can have impacts on the cost, time, and performance. Results of previous studies indicated that the external conditions are among the factors which give effect to the contractor in the completion of the project. The analysis in the study carried out by considering the conditions of the project in the last 15 years in Aceh province, divided into military conflict phase (2000-2004), post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2005-2009), and post-rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2010-present). This study intended to analyze the impact of external risk factors, primarily related to the impact on project costs and to investigate the influence of the risk factors and construction phases impacted the project cost. Data was collected by using a questionnaire distributed in 15 large companies qualification contractors in Aceh province. Factors analyzed consisted of socio-political, government policies, natural disasters, and monetary conditions. Data were analyzed using statistical application of severity index to measure the level of risk impact. The analysis results presented the tendency of impact on cost can generally be classified as low. There is only one variable classified as high-impact, variable `fuel price increases', which appear on the military conflict and post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction periods. The risk impact on costs from the factors and variables classified with high intensity needs a serious attention, especially when the high level impact is followed by the high frequency of occurrences.

Projected space-time and varying speed of light

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iovane, G.; Bellucci, S.; Benedetto, E.

2008-01-01

In this paper starting from El Naschie's Cantorian space-time and our model of projected Universe, we consider its properties in connection with varying speed of light. A possible way-out of the related problem is provided by the Fantappie group approach

Risk factors for islet loss during culture prior to transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kin, Tatsuya; Senior, Peter; O'Gorman, Doug; Richer, Brad; Salam, Abdul; Shapiro, Andrew Mark James

2008-11-01

Culturing islets can add great flexibility to a clinical islet transplant program. However, a reduction in the islet mass has been frequently observed during culture and its degree varies. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with a significant islet loss during culture. One-hundred and four islet preparations cultured in an attempt to use for transplantation constituted this study. After culture for 20 h (median), islet yield significantly decreased from 363 309 +/- 12 647 to 313 035 +/- 10 862 islet equivalent yield (IE) (mean +/- SE), accompanied by a reduction in packed tissue volume from 3.9 +/- 0.1 to 3.0 +/- 0.1 ml and islet index (IE/islet particle count) from 1.20 +/- 0.04 to 1.05 +/- 0.04. Culture did not markedly alter islet purity or percent of trapped islet. Morphology score and viability were significantly improved after culture. Of 104 islet preparations, 37 suffered a substantial islet loss (> 20%) over culture. Factors significantly associated with risk of islet loss identified by univariate analysis were longer cold ischemia time, two-layer method (TLM) preservation, lower islet purity, and higher islet index. Multivariate analysis revealed that independent predictors of islet loss were higher islet index and the use of TLM. This study provides novel information on the link between donor- isolation factors and islet loss during culture.

An Explicit MOT-TD-VIE Solver for Time Varying Media

KAUST Repository

Sayed, Sadeed Bin; Ulku, Huseyin Arda; Bagci, Hakan

2016-01-01

An explicit marching on-in-time (MOT) scheme for solving the time domain electric field integral equation enforced on volumes with time varying dielectric permittivity is proposed. Unknowns of the integral equation and the constitutive relation, i

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-06-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Incidence and risk factors of AIDS-defining cancers in a cohort of HIV-positive adults: Importance of the definition of incident cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Suárez-García, Inés; Jarrín, Inmaculada; Iribarren, José Antonio; López-Cortés, Luis Fernando; Lacruz-Rodrigo, José; Masiá, Mar; Gómez-Sirvent, Juan Luis; Hernández-Quero, José; Vidal, Francesc; Alejos-Ferreras, Belén; Moreno, Santiago; Del Amo, Julia

2013-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and risk factors for the development of AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs); and to investigate the effect of making different assumptions on the definition of incident cases. A multicentre cohort study was designed. Poisson regression was used to assess incidence and risk factors. To account for misclassification, incident cases were defined using lag-times of 0, 14 and 30 days after enrolment. A total of 6393 HIV-positive subjects were included in the study. The incidences of ADCs changed as the lag periods were varied from 0 to 30 days. Different risk factors emerged as the definition of incident cases was changed. For a lag time of 0, the risk of Kaposi sarcoma [KS] and non-Hodgkin lymphoma [NHL] increased at CD4 counts sex with men had a higher risk of KS. KS and NHL were not associated with viral load, gender, or hepatitis B or C. The results were similar for a lag-time of 14 and 30 days; however, hepatitis C was significantly associated with NHL. This analysis shows the importance of the definition of incident cases in cohort studies. Alternative definitions gave different incidence estimates, and may have implications for the analysis of risk factors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Physical activity and time spent sitting as a risk factor for low-back pain: longitudinal data from the HUNT study

OpenAIRE

Venseth, Torje Bragstad

2014-01-01

Background: Low back pain (LBP) is the most common pain condition with a lifetime prevalence of 70 %. One of the most investigated risk factor for LBP is sedentary lifestyle. This is of great interest as sitting is the more dominant occupational activity in today’s society. Aim: The aim of this study was to prospectively investigate if the risk of chronic LBP is associated with time spent sitting, leisure time physical activity, and occupational activity. We also examined the combined eff...

[Environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Vilain, J; Galliot, A-M; Durand-Roger, J; Leboyer, M; Llorca, P-M; Schürhoff, F; Szöke, A

2013-02-01

Evidence of variations in schizophrenia incidence rates has been found in genetically homogenous populations, depending on changes within time or space of certain environmental characteristics. The consideration of the impact of environmental risk factors in etiopathogenic studies has put the environment in the forefront of research regarding psychotic illnesses. Various environmental factors such as urbanicity, migration, cannabis, childhood traumas, infectious agents, obstetrical complications and psychosocial factors have been associated with the risk of developing schizophrenia. These risk factors can be biological, physical, psychological as well as social and may operate at different times in an individual's life (fetal period, childhood, adolescence and early adulthood). Whilst some of these factors act on an individual level, others act on a populational level, modulating the individual risk. These factors can have a direct action on the development of schizophrenia, or on the other hand act as markers for directly implicated factors that have not yet been identified. This article summarizes the current knowledge on this subject. An extensive literature search was conducted via the search engine Pubmed. Eight risk factors were selected and developed in the following paper: urbanicity (or living in an urban area), cannabis, migration (and ethnic density), obstetrical complications, seasonality of birth, infectious agents (and inflammatory responses), socio-demographic factors and childhood traumas. For each of these factors, we provide information on the importance of the risk, the vulnerability period, hypotheses made on the possible mechanisms behind the factors and the level of proof the current research offers (good, medium, or insufficient) according to the amount, type, quality and concordance of the studies at hand. Some factors, such as cannabis, are "unique" in their influence on the development of schizophrenia since it labels only one risk factor

Awareness of risk factors for loneliness among third agers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schoenmakers, E.C.; van Tilburg, T.G.; Fokkema, T.

2014-01-01

Awareness of risk factors for loneliness is a prerequisite for preventive action. Many risk factors for loneliness have been identified. This paper focuses on two: poor health and widowhood. Preventive action by developing a satisfying social network requires time and effort and thus seems

Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke

2015-05-25

As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

Population-Attributable Risk Proportion of Clinical Risk Factors for Breast Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Engmann, Natalie J; Golmakani, Marzieh K; Miglioretti, Diana L; Sprague, Brian L; Kerlikowske, Karla

2017-09-01

breasts shifted to scattered fibroglandular breast density. Among postmenopausal women, 22.8% (95% CI, 18.3%-27.3%) of breast cancers could potentially be averted if all overweight and obese women attained a body mass index of less than 25. Most women with breast cancer have at least 1 breast cancer risk factor routinely documented at the time of mammography, and more than half of premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancers are explained by these factors. These easily assessed risk factors should be incorporated into risk prediction models to stratify breast cancer risk and promote risk-based screening and targeted prevention efforts.

Analyzing the term structure of interest rates using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with time-varying parameters

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopman, S.J.; Mallee, M.I.P.; van der Wel, M.

2010-01-01

In this article we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson-Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector autoregressive

Electricity Futures Prices : Time Varying Sensitivity to Fundamentals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S-E. Fleten (Stein-Erik); R. Huisman (Ronald); M. Kilic (Mehtap); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); S. Westgaard (Sjur)

2014-01-01

textabstractThis paper provides insight in the time-varying relation between electricity futures prices and fundamentals in the form of prices of contracts for fossil fuels. As supply curves are not constant and different producers have different marginal costs of production, we argue that the

[Hepatitis caused by virus C. Risk factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Garassini, M E; Pulgar, Y; Alvarado, M; Garassini, M A

1995-01-01

To establish the risk factors to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, we studied 120 patients divided in 2 groups: A first group of 40 patients with HCV infection, 24 (60%) with past medical history of blood transfusion, 14 (35%) of them also had hemodialysis and 3 Kidney transplant. 10 patients (25%) had mayor surgery without transfusion, 3 had frequent visits to the dentist and 3 month baby whose mother was HCV positive. In 4 patients we found no risk factors. A second group of 80 patients who visit our clinic for the first time, 2 were found positive for HCV (1.6%). 13 of them had blood transfusion, one was HCV+ (OR: 5.5, P = 0.73). 41 had history of mayor surgery, one HCV+ (OR: 0.95, P = 1.000). The risk factors related to HCV infection in our population were blood transfusion, hemodialysis and mayor surgery. The use of EV drugs, tatoos, sexual behavior, interfamiliar or vertical transmission were not risk factor in our population.

Discrete-Time Sliding-Mode Control of Uncertain Systems with Time-Varying Delays via Descriptor Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maode Yan

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of robust discrete-time sliding-mode control (DT-SMC design for a class of uncertain linear systems with time-varying delays. By applying a descriptor model transformation and Moon's inequality for bounding cross terms, a delay-dependent sufficient condition for the existence of stable sliding surface is given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. Based on this existence condition, the synthesized sliding mode controller can guarantee the sliding-mode reaching condition of the specified discrete-time sliding surface for all admissible uncertainties and time-varying delays. An illustrative example verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Separate and Joint Associations of Occupational and Leisure-Time Sitting with Cardio-Metabolic Risk Factors in Working Adults: A Cross-Sectional Study

OpenAIRE

Saidj, Madina; J?rgensen, Torben; Jacobsen, Rikke K.; Linneberg, Allan; Aadahl, Mette

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: The workplace is a main setting for prolonged sitting for some occupational groups. Convincing evidence has recently accumulated on the detrimental cardio-metabolic health effects of leisure-time sitting. Yet, much less is known about occupational sitting, and the potential health risk attached compared to leisure-time sitting. OBJECTIVE: To explore the separate and joint associations of occupational and leisure-time sitting with cardio-metabolic risk factors in working adults. ME...

Synchronization of uncertain time-varying network based on sliding mode control technique

Science.gov (United States)

Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Bai, Suyuan; Li, Gang; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan; Yan, Zhe

2017-09-01

We research synchronization of uncertain time-varying network based on sliding mode control technique. The sliding mode control technique is first modified so that it can be applied to network synchronization. Further, by choosing the appropriate sliding surface, the identification law of uncertain parameter, the adaptive law of the time-varying coupling matrix element and the control input of network are designed, it is sure that the uncertain time-varying network can synchronize effectively the synchronization target. At last, we perform some numerical simulations to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

Risk factors for incident peripheral arterial disease in type 2 diabetes: results from the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in type 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Althouse, Andrew D; Abbott, J Dawn; Forker, Alan D; Bertolet, Marnie; Barinas-Mitchell, Emma; Thurston, Rebecca C; Mulukutla, Suresh; Aboyans, Victor; Brooks, Maria Mori

2014-01-01

The aim of this article was to define risk factors for incidence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in a large cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), overall and within the context of differing glycemic control strategies. The Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in Type 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) randomized controlled trial assigned participants to insulin-sensitizing (IS) therapy versus insulin-providing (IP) therapy. A total of 1,479 participants with normal ankle-brachial index (ABI) at study entry were eligible for analysis. PAD outcomes included new ABI ≤0.9 with decrease at least 0.1 from baseline, lower extremity revascularization, or lower extremity amputation. Baseline risk factors within the overall cohort and time-varying risk factors within each assigned glycemic control arm were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. During an average 4.6 years of follow-up, 303 participants (20.5%) experienced an incident case of PAD. Age, sex, race, and baseline smoking status were all significantly associated with incident PAD in the BARI 2D cohort. Additional baseline risk factors included pulse pressure, HbA1c, and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (P < 0.05 for each). In stratified analyses of time-varying covariates, changes in BMI, LDL, HDL, systolic blood pressure, and pulse pressure were most predictive among IS patients, while change in HbA1c was most predictive among IP patients. Among patients with T2DM, traditional cardiovascular risk factors were the main predictors of incident PAD cases. Stratified analyses showed different risk factors were predictive for patients treated with IS medications versus those treated with IP medications.

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Conceptual Modeling of Time-Varying Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Heidi; Jensen, Christian S.

2004-01-01

A wide range of database applications manage information that varies over time. Many of the underlying database schemas of these were designed using the Entity-Relationship (ER) model. In the research community as well as in industry, it is common knowledge that the temporal aspects of the mini......-world are important, but difficult to capture using the ER model. Several enhancements to the ER model have been proposed in an attempt to support the modeling of temporal aspects of information. Common to the existing temporally extended ER models, few or no specific requirements to the models were given...

A time-varying magnetic flux concentrator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kibret, B; Premaratne, M; Lewis, P M; Thomson, R; Fitzgerald, P B

2016-01-01

It is known that diverse technological applications require the use of focused magnetic fields. This has driven the quest for controlling the magnetic field. Recently, the principles in transformation optics and metamaterials have allowed the realization of practical static magnetic flux concentrators. Extending such progress, here, we propose a time-varying magnetic flux concentrator cylindrical shell that uses electric conductors and ferromagnetic materials to guide magnetic flux to its center. Its performance is discussed based on finite-element simulation results. Our proposed design has potential applications in magnetic sensors, medical devices, wireless power transfer, and near-field wireless communications. (paper)

Electron dynamics in solid state via time varying wavevectors

Science.gov (United States)

Khaneja, Navin

2018-06-01

In this paper, we study electron wavepacket dynamics in electric and magnetic fields. We rigorously derive the semiclassical equations of electron dynamics in electric and magnetic fields. We do it both for free electron and electron in a periodic potential. We do this by introducing time varying wavevectors k(t). In the presence of magnetic field, our wavepacket reproduces the classical cyclotron orbits once the origin of the Schröedinger equation is correctly chosen to be center of cyclotron orbit. In the presence of both electric and magnetic fields, our equations for wavepacket dynamics differ from classical Lorentz force equations. We show that in a periodic potential, on application of electric field, the electron wave function adiabatically follows the wavefunction of a time varying Bloch wavevector k(t), with its energies suitably shifted with time. We derive the effective mass equation and discuss conduction in conductors and insulators.

Seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors among an urban population in Haiti

OpenAIRE

Hepburn, Matthew J; Lawitz, Eric J

2004-01-01

Abstract Background The seroprevalence of hepatitis C varies substantially between countries and geographic regions. A better understanding of the seroprevalence of this disease, and the risk factors associated with seropositive status, supply data for the development of screening programs and provide insight into the transmission of the disease. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors in an urban population in Haiti. Me...

Risk Factors for Gambling Problems: An Analysis by Gender.

Science.gov (United States)

Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex; Tolchard, Barry; Nower, Lia

2016-06-01

Differences in problem gambling rates between males and females suggest that associated risk factors vary by gender. Previous combined analyses of male and female gambling may have obscured these distinctions. This study aimed to develop separate risk factor models for gambling problems for males and for females, and identify gender-based similarities and differences. It analysed data from the largest prevalence study in Victoria Australia (N = 15,000). Analyses determined factors differentiating non-problem from at-risk gamblers separately for women and men, then compared genders using interaction terms. Separate multivariate analyses determined significant results when controlling for all others. Variables included demographics, gambling behaviour, gambling motivations, money management, and mental and physical health. Significant predictors of at-risk status amongst female gamblers included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on private betting, electronic gaming machines (EGMs), scratch tickets or bingo, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. For males, risk factors included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, low education, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on EGMs, table games, races, sports or lotteries, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. High risk groups requiring appropriate interventions comprise young adults, especially males; middle-aged female EGM gamblers; non-English speaking populations; frequent EGM, table games, race and sports gamblers; and gamblers motivated by escape.

Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease: analysis of previously proposed risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Harlak

2010-01-01

Full Text Available PURPOSE: Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease is a source of one of the most common surgical problems among young adults. While male gender, obesity, occupations requiring sitting, deep natal clefts, excessive body hair, poor body hygiene and excessive sweating are described as the main risk factors for this disease, most of these need to be verified with a clinical trial. The present study aimed to evaluate the value and effect of these factors on pilonidal disease. METHOD: Previously proposed main risk factors were evaluated in a prospective case control study that included 587 patients with pilonidal disease and 2,780 healthy control patients. RESULTS: Stiffness of body hair, number of baths and time spent seated per day were the three most predictive risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios were 9.23, 6.33 and 4.03, respectively (p<0.001. With an adjusted odds ratio of 1.3 (p<.001, body mass index was another risk factor. Family history was not statistically different between the groups and there was no specific occupation associated with the disease. CONCLUSIONS: Hairy people who sit down for more than six hours a day and those who take a bath two or less times per week are at a 219-fold increased risk for sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease than those without these risk factors. For people with a great deal of hair, there is a greater need for them to clean their intergluteal sulcus. People who engage in work that requires sitting in a seat for long periods of time should choose more comfortable seats and should also try to stand whenever possible.

Global stabilization of linear continuous time-varying systems with bounded controls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phat, V.N.

2004-08-01

This paper deals with the problem of global stabilization of a class of linear continuous time-varying systems with bounded controls. Based on the controllability of the nominal system, a sufficient condition for the global stabilizability is proposed without solving any Riccati differential equation. Moreover, we give sufficient conditions for the robust stabilizability of perturbation/uncertain linear time-varying systems with bounded controls. (author)

An integrative time-varying frequency detection and channel sounding method for dynamic plasma sheath

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Lei; Yao, Bo; Zhao, Lei; Liu, Xiaotong; Yang, Min; Liu, Yanming

2018-01-01

The plasma sheath-surrounded hypersonic vehicle is a dynamic and time-varying medium and it is almost impossible to calculate time-varying physical parameters directly. The in-fight detection of the time-varying degree is important to understand the dynamic nature of the physical parameters and their effect on re-entry communication. In this paper, a constant envelope zero autocorrelation (CAZAC) sequence based on time-varying frequency detection and channel sounding method is proposed to detect the plasma sheath electronic density time-varying property and wireless channel characteristic. The proposed method utilizes the CAZAC sequence, which has excellent autocorrelation and spread gain characteristics, to realize dynamic time-varying detection/channel sounding under low signal-to-noise ratio in the plasma sheath environment. Theoretical simulation under a typical time-varying radio channel shows that the proposed method is capable of detecting time-variation frequency up to 200 kHz and can trace the channel amplitude and phase in the time domain well under -10 dB. Experimental results conducted in the RF modulation discharge plasma device verified the time variation detection ability in practical dynamic plasma sheath. Meanwhile, nonlinear phenomenon of dynamic plasma sheath on communication signal is observed thorough channel sounding result.

Finite-Time Reentry Attitude Control Using Time-Varying Sliding Mode and Disturbance Observer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuzhong Wu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the finite-time attitude control problem for reentry vehicle with redundant actuators in consideration of planet uncertainties and external disturbances. Firstly, feedback linearization technique is used to cancel the nonlinearities of equations of motion to construct a basic mode for attitude controller. Secondly, two kinds of time-varying sliding mode control methods with disturbance observer are integrated with the basic mode in order to enhance the control performance and system robustness. One method is designed based on boundary layer technique and the other is a novel second-order sliding model control method. The finite-time stability analyses of both resultant closed-loop systems are carried out. Furthermore, after attitude controller produces the torque commands, an optimization control allocation approach is introduced to allocate them into aerodynamic surface deflections and on-off reaction control system thrusts. Finally, the numerical simulation results demonstrate that both of the time-varying sliding mode control methods are robust to uncertainties and disturbances without chattering phenomenon. Moreover, the proposed second-order sliding mode control method possesses better control accuracy.

Leisure-time physical activity in university students from 23 countries: associations with health beliefs, risk awareness, and national economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Haase, Anne; Steptoe, Andrew; Sallis, James F; Wardle, Jane

2004-07-01

Physical inactivity has been linked with chronic disease and obesity in most western populations. However, prevalence of inactivity, health beliefs, and knowledge of the risks of inactivity have rarely been assessed across a wide range of developed and developing countries. A cross-sectional survey was carried out with 19,298 university students from 23 countries varying in culture and level of economic development. Data concerning leisure-time physical activity, health beliefs, and health knowledge were collected. The prevalence of inactivity in leisure time varied with cultural and economic developmental factors, averaging 23% (North-Western Europe and the United States), 30% (Central and Eastern Europe), 39% (Mediterranean), 42% (Pacific Asian), and 44% (developing countries). The likelihood of leisure-time physical activity was positively associated with the strength of beliefs in the health benefits of activity and with national economic development (per capita gross domestic product). Knowledge about activity and health was disappointing, with only 40-60% being aware that physical activity was relevant to risk of heart disease. Leisure-time physical activity is below recommended levels in a substantial proportion of students, and is related to cultural factors and stage of national economic development. The relationship between health beliefs and behavior is robust across cultures, but health knowledge remains deficient. Copyright 2004 The Institute for Cancer Prevention and Elsevier Inc.

Finite-time and fixed-time synchronization analysis of inertial memristive neural networks with time-varying delays.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Ruoyu; Cao, Jinde; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2018-02-01

This paper investigates the finite-time synchronization and fixed-time synchronization problems of inertial memristive neural networks with time-varying delays. By utilizing the Filippov discontinuous theory and Lyapunov stability theory, several sufficient conditions are derived to ensure finite-time synchronization of inertial memristive neural networks. Then, for the purpose of making the setting time independent of initial condition, we consider the fixed-time synchronization. A novel criterion guaranteeing the fixed-time synchronization of inertial memristive neural networks is derived. Finally, three examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of our main results.

Risk factors for post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Ikoma, Ryo; Sakane, Sayaka; Niwa, Kazutomo; Kanetaka, Sayaka; Kawano, Toshiro; Oridate, Nobuhiko

2014-08-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the rate of post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage (PTH) in a single institution and to evaluate the clinical risk factors for PTH. We reviewed the records of 692 patients who underwent tonsillectomy (TE) at Yokohama Minami Kyosai Hospital in Japan. PTH grades were grouped into three categories according to the severity of the hemorrhagic episode: (I) minimal hemorrhage that stopped after noninvasive treatment, (II) hemorrhage requiring treatment with local anesthesia, and (III) hemorrhage requiring reoperation under general anesthesia in the operating room. Clinical risk factors such as sex, age (adults vs. children), TE indication, surgeon's skill level, operative time, ligature type, and duration of antibiotic administration for PTH were investigated. Among the 692 patients, 80 (11.6%) showed PTH, with primary and secondary hemorrhage accounting for 1.6% and 10.0%, respectively. A category III PTH was observed in 18 patients; thus, the overall risk of reoperation was 2.6%. The PTH episode most frequently occurred on postoperative days 5 and 6. The frequency of PTH was significantly higher in male patients and in adults (Pdefinition of PTH. Clinical risk factors for PTH were adult age and male gender. The surgeon's skill level was an additional risk factor for category III PTH. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Risk factors of schizophrenia].

Science.gov (United States)

Suvisaari, Jaana

2010-01-01

Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.

Risk factors for tornado injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Eidson, M; Lybarger, J A; Parsons, J E; MacCormack, J N; Freeman, J I

1990-12-01

Tornadoes in North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984 caused 252 people to be injured seriously enough to require hospitalization and 59 to be killed. To evaluate risk factors, we gathered information on 238 (94%) of those hospitalized and 46 (78%) of those killed. Those hospitalized or deceased had statistically significantly more deep cuts, concussions, unconsciousness and broken bones than those with them at the time of the tornado who were not hospitalized or killed. People living in mobile homes were more likely to be hospitalized or die than people occupying conventional houses. Other risk factors for hospitalization or death included advanced age (60+ years), no physical protection (not having been covered with a blanket or other object), having been struck by broken window glass or other falling objects, home lifted off its foundation, collapsed ceiling or floor, or walls blown away. More awareness of the tornado risk before it strikes and better adherence to tornado protection guidelines could reduce injuries and deaths in the future.

Psychosocial risk factors, pre-motor symptoms and first-time hospitalization with Parkinson's disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clark, Alice Jessie; Ritz, B; Prescott, E

2013-01-01

), as well as to identify potential pre-motor symptoms for PD in a large prospective cohort study. METHODS: In 1991-1993, a total of 9955 women and men free of PD from the Copenhagen City Heart Study were asked about major life events, economic hardship, social network, impaired sleep and vital exhaustion...... social network in the current study. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the hypothesis that psychosocial risk factors affect the risk of PD is not supported. The results, however, suggest that vital exhaustion may be a pre-motor marker of the neurodegenerative process eventually leading to motor symptoms and clinical......BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Experimental studies support a link between stress and development of parkinsonian symptoms, but prospective population studies are lacking. The aim of the current study is to determine the effects of several psychosocial factors on the risk of Parkinson's disease (PD...

The quality of risk factor screening during antenatal consultations in Niger.

Science.gov (United States)

Prual, A; Toure, A; Huguet, D; Laurent, Y

2000-03-01

A decade after the first International Conference on Safe Motherhood, maternal mortality remains very high in most West African countries, even in capital cities. The detection of high risk pregnancies, known as the risk approach, during antenatal consultations has been the basis of most maternal and child health programmes over the last decade. The effectiveness of antenatal care as a tool to prevent or predict obstetric complications is being questioned more and more. In addition to the scarcity of reliable data about the predictivity of most risk factors, the quality of the screening must be questioned. The goal of this study was to assess the frequency of risk factors among a sample of pregnant women attending antenatal care in Niger and to assess the quality of the screening of those risk factors. Overall, 330 pregnant women were enrolled in the study. Each woman was examined twice: the first time by a midwife, the second time by one of the authors but without knowledge of the results of the first consultation. Fifty-five percent of pregnant women had at least one risk factor, 31% had more than one. Ninety-one percent of the risk factors were detected at interview. The following risk factors were not systematically searched for by midwives: height (48.5%), blood pressure (43.6%), glycosuria (40.6%), vaginal bleeding (38.2%), oedema (37.3%), parity (17%), age (16%), previous caesarean section (15.2%), previous stillbirth (15.2%) and previous miscarriages (14.8%). This study has shown that, in Niger, the quality of screening for risk factors during antenatal consultation is poor. In the urban settings where this study took place, lack of personnel, lack of equipment, lack of time and poor compliance by women cannot be made responsible for this situation. While screening of these risk factors continues as policy, the quality of screening must be dramatically improved.

Age and other perioperative risk factors for postoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome after cardiac surgery

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dieleman, J. M.; Peelen, L. M.; Coulson, T. G.; Tran, L.; Reid, C. M.; Smith, Jennifer A.; Myles, P. S.; Pilcher, C.D.

2017-01-01

Background The inflammatory response to surgery varies considerably between individual patients. Age might be a substantial factor in this variability. Our objective was to examine the association of patient age and other potential risk factors with the occurrence of a postoperative systemic

Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xue-Zhong; Li, Kai; Wang, Chuncheng

2018-05-01

By developing a continuous-time heterogeneous agent financial market model of multi-assets traded by fundamental and momentum investors, we provide a potential mechanism for generating time-varying dominance between fundamental and non-fundamental in financial markets. We show that investment constraints lead to the coexistence of a locally stable fundamental steady state and a locally stable limit cycle around the fundamental, characterized by a Bautin bifurcation. This provides a mechanism for market prices to switch stochastically between the two persistent but very different market states, leading to the coexistence and time-varying dominance of seemingly controversial efficient market and price momentum over different time periods. The model also generates other financial market stylized facts, such as spillover effects in both momentum and volatility, market booms, crashes, and correlation reduction due to cross-sectional momentum trading. Empirical evidence based on the U.S. market supports the main findings. The mechanism developed in this paper can be used to characterize time-varying economic dominance in economics and finance in general.

Optimal critic learning for robot control in time-varying environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chen; Li, Yanan; Ge, Shuzhi Sam; Lee, Tong Heng

2015-10-01

In this paper, optimal critic learning is developed for robot control in a time-varying environment. The unknown environment is described as a linear system with time-varying parameters, and impedance control is employed for the interaction control. Desired impedance parameters are obtained in the sense of an optimal realization of the composite of trajectory tracking and force regulation. Q -function-based critic learning is developed to determine the optimal impedance parameters without the knowledge of the system dynamics. The simulation results are presented and compared with existing methods, and the efficacy of the proposed method is verified.

Studying risk factors associated with Human Leptospirosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramachandra Kamath

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Leptospirosis is one of the most under diagnosed and underreported disease in both developed and developing countries including India. It is established that environmental conditions and occupational habit of the individuals put them at risk of acquiring disease, which varies from community to community. Various seroprevalence studies across the world have documented emerging situation of this neglected tropical disease, but limited have probed to identify the risk factors, especially in India. Objectives: The objective of this study was to identify the environmental and occupational risk factors associated with the disease in Udupi District. Materials and Methods: This population-based case-control study was carried out in Udupi, a District in Southern India from April 2012 until August 2012. Udupi is considered to be endemic for Leptospirosis and reported 116 confirmed cases in the year 2011. Seventy of 116 laboratory confirmed cases and 140 sex matched neighborhood healthy controls participated in the study. A predesigned, semi-structured and validated questionnaire was used for data collection through house to house visit and observations were noted about environmental conditions. Univariate analysis followed by multivariate analysis (back ward conditional logistic regression was performed by using STATA version 9.2 (StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA to identify potential risk factors. Results: Occupational factors such as outdoor activities (matched odds ratio [OR] of 3.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-13.0, presence of cut or wound at body parts during work (matched OR: 4.88, CI: 1.83-13.02 and environmental factors such as contact with rodents through using the food materials ate by rat (matched OR: 4.29, CI: 1.45-12.73 and contact with soil or water contaminated with urine of rat (matched OR: 4.58, CI: 1.43-14.67 were the risk factors identified to be associated with disease. Conclusion: Leptospirosis is still

Teen Pregnancy Risk Factors Among Young Women of Diverse Sexual Orientations.

Science.gov (United States)

Charlton, Brittany M; Roberts, Andrea L; Rosario, Margaret; Katz-Wise, Sabra L; Calzo, Jerel P; Spiegelman, Donna; Austin, S Bryn

2018-04-01

Young women who are sexual minorities (eg, bisexual and lesbian) are approximately twice as likely as those who are heterosexual to have a teen pregnancy. Therefore, we hypothesized that risk factors for teen pregnancy would vary across sexual orientation groups and that other potential risk factors exist that are unique to sexual minorities. We used multivariable log-binomial models gathered from 7120 young women in the longitudinal cohort known as the Growing Up Today Study to examine the following potential teen pregnancy risk factors: childhood maltreatment, bullying victimization and perpetration, and gender nonconformity. Among sexual minorities, we also examined the following: sexual minority developmental milestones, sexual orientation-related stress, sexual minority outness, and lesbian, gay, and bisexual social activity involvement. Childhood maltreatment and bullying were significant teen pregnancy risk factors among all participants. After adjusting for childhood maltreatment and bullying, the sexual orientation-related teen pregnancy disparities were attenuated; these risk factors explained 45% of the disparity. Among sexual minorities, reaching sexual minority developmental milestones earlier was also associated with an increased teen pregnancy risk. The higher teen pregnancy prevalence among sexual minorities compared with heterosexuals in this cohort was partially explained by childhood maltreatment and bullying, which may, in part, stem from sexual orientation-related discrimination. Teen pregnancy prevention efforts that are focused on risk factors more common among young women who are sexual minorities (eg, childhood maltreatment, bullying) can help to reduce the existing sexual orientation-related teen pregnancy disparity. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Neonatal Risk Factors for Treatment-Demanding Retinopathy of Prematurity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Slidsborg, Carina; Jensen, Aksel; Forman, Julie Lyng

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: One goal of the study was to identify "new" statistically independent risk factors for treatment-demanding retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). Another goal was to evaluate whether any new risk factors could explain the increase in the incidence of treatment-demanding ROP over time in Denmark....... DESIGN: A retrospective, register-based cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: The study included premature infants (n = 6490) born in Denmark from 1997 to 2008. METHODS: The study sample and the 31 candidate risk factors were identified in 3 national registers. Data were linked through a unique civil registration...

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

2014-06-15

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-01-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

[Latex allergy in a paediatric hospital. Characteristics and risk factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Michael; Norambuena, Ximena; Roizen, Gigia; Rodríguez, Jorge; Quezada, Arnoldo

The prevalence of latex sensitisation varies according to the population studied. There are various risk factors that increase latex sensitisation, such as genetic risk, atopy, and multiple surgeries. To characterise patients referred to an Immunology Unit with suspected latex allergy, and to analyse their clinical features and risk factors. A retrospective, descriptive study was conducted on children suspected of latex allergy. Their medical records were reviewed in order to assess symptoms with contact or exposure to latex materials. Known risk factors to latex sensitisation, such as pathologies requiring repeated surgery (spina bifida, myelomeningocele, scoliosis and nephro-urological alterations), atopy (rhinitis, asthma, atopic dermatitis) were investigated. A prick test and/or specific IgE to latex were also performed. A multivariate logistic regression model was performed to find associations between symptoms triggered by exposure to latex with underlying diseases and other risk conditions. A total of 106 patients were enrolled in the study, of whom 50 were evaluable. At diagnosis 96% of patients were older than five years. Most of the risk factors described were observable in these patients, such as multiple surgeries, neurological and nephro-urological malformations, surgery before one year-old, and repeated bladder catheterisation. After latex exposure, mucous cutaneous manifestations were the most common (52%), followed by respiratory symptoms (36%). All patients were sensitised and allergic to latex. Latex allergy is a significant problem in children with risk factors. The results shown in this study raise important challenges for preventive measures and awareness. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Night shift work at specific age ranges and chronic disease risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramin, Cody; Devore, Elizabeth E; Wang, Weike; Pierre-Paul, Jeffrey; Wegrzyn, Lani R; Schernhammer, Eva S

2015-02-01

We examined the association of night shift work history and age when night shift work was performed with cancer and cardiovascular disease risk factors among 54 724 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) II. We calculated age-adjusted and socioeconomic status-adjusted means and percentages for cancer and cardiovascular risk factors in 2009 across categories of night shift work history. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for key risk factors among 54 724 participants (72% ever shift workers). We further examined these associations by age (20-25, 26-35, 36-45 and 46+ years) at which shift work was performed. Ever night shift workers had increased odds of obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m(2); OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.43); higher caffeine intake (≥131 mg/day; OR=1.16, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.22) and total calorie intake (≥1715 kcal/day; OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.13); current smoking (OR=1.30, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.42); and shorter sleep durations (≤7 h of sleep/day; OR=1.19, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.24) compared to never night shift workers. These estimates varied depending on age at which night work was performed, with a suggestion that night shift work before age 25 was associated with fewer risk factors compared to night shift work at older ages. Our results indicate that night shift work may contribute to an adverse chronic disease risk profile, and that risk factors may vary depending on the age at which night shift work was performed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

An ecological momentary intervention for smoking cessation: The associations of just-in-time, tailored messages with lapse risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Hébert, Emily T; Stevens, Elise M; Frank, Summer G; Kendzor, Darla E; Wetter, David W; Zvolensky, Michael J; Buckner, Julia D; Businelle, Michael S

2018-03-01

Smartphone apps can provide real-time, tailored interventions for smoking cessation. The current study examines the effectiveness of a smartphone-based smoking cessation application that assessed risk for imminent smoking lapse multiple times per day and provided messages tailored to current smoking lapse risk and specific lapse triggers. Participants (N=59) recruited from a safety-net hospital smoking cessation clinic completed phone-based ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) 5 times/day for 3 consecutive weeks (1week pre-quit, 2weeks post-quit). Risk for smoking lapse was estimated in real-time using a novel weighted lapse risk estimator. With each EMA, participants received messages tailored to current level of risk for imminent smoking lapse and self-reported presence of smoking urge, stress, cigarette availability, and motivation to quit. Generalized linear mixed model analyses determined whether messages tailored to specific lapse risk factors were associated with greater reductions in these triggers than messages not tailored to specific triggers. Overall, messages tailored to smoking urge, cigarette availability, or stress corresponded with greater reductions in those triggers than messages that were not tailored to specific triggers (p's=0.02 to <0.001). Although messages tailored to stress were associated with greater reductions in stress than messages not tailored to stress, the association was non-significant (p=0.892) when only moments of high stress were included in the analysis. Mobile technology can be used to conduct real-time smoking lapse risk assessment and provide tailored treatment content. Findings provide initial evidence that tailored content may impact users' urge to smoke, stress, and cigarette availability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Output-only modal parameter estimator of linear time-varying structural systems based on vector TAR model and least squares support vector machine

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Si-Da; Ma, Yuan-Chen; Liu, Li; Kang, Jie; Ma, Zhi-Sai; Yu, Lei

2018-01-01

Identification of time-varying modal parameters contributes to the structural health monitoring, fault detection, vibration control, etc. of the operational time-varying structural systems. However, it is a challenging task because there is not more information for the identification of the time-varying systems than that of the time-invariant systems. This paper presents a vector time-dependent autoregressive model and least squares support vector machine based modal parameter estimator for linear time-varying structural systems in case of output-only measurements. To reduce the computational cost, a Wendland's compactly supported radial basis function is used to achieve the sparsity of the Gram matrix. A Gamma-test-based non-parametric approach of selecting the regularization factor is adapted for the proposed estimator to replace the time-consuming n-fold cross validation. A series of numerical examples have illustrated the advantages of the proposed modal parameter estimator on the suppression of the overestimate and the short data. A laboratory experiment has further validated the proposed estimator.

Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods : the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and

TIME-VARYING DYNAMICAL STAR FORMATION RATE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Eve J.; Chang, Philip; Murray, Norman, E-mail: evelee@berkeley.edu [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, 60 St. George Street, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3H8 (Canada)

2015-02-10

We present numerical evidence of dynamic star formation in which the accreted stellar mass grows superlinearly with time, roughly as t {sup 2}. We perform simulations of star formation in self-gravitating hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic turbulence that is continuously driven. By turning the self-gravity of the gas in the simulations on or off, we demonstrate that self-gravity is the dominant physical effect setting the mass accretion rate at early times before feedback effects take over, contrary to theories of turbulence-regulated star formation. We find that gravitational collapse steepens the density profile around stars, generating the power-law tail on what is otherwise a lognormal density probability distribution function. Furthermore, we find turbulent velocity profiles to flatten inside collapsing regions, altering the size-line width relation. This local flattening reflects enhancements of turbulent velocity on small scales, as verified by changes to the velocity power spectra. Our results indicate that gas self-gravity dynamically alters both density and velocity structures in clouds, giving rise to a time-varying star formation rate. We find that a substantial fraction of the gas that forms stars arrives via low-density flows, as opposed to accreting through high-density filaments.

Risk factors for ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter infection in Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Meirion R; Northey, Gemma; Sarvotham, Tinnu S; Hopkins, A Lynne; Rigby, Christine J; Thomas, Daniel Rh

2009-08-01

To identify risk factors for ciprofloxacin resistance in both travel-related and domestically acquired Campylobacter infection. Case-comparison study of patients with ciprofloxacin-resistant and ciprofloxacin-susceptible Campylobacter infection conducted in Wales during 2003 and 2004. Foreign travel was the major risk factor for ciprofloxacin-resistant infection [adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 24.0, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 12.6-45.9]. Among travellers, case patients were five times more likely to drink still bottled water (adjOR 4.7, 95% CI 1.0-21.7), whilst among non-travellers, case patients were three times more likely to drink sparkling bottled water (adjOR 3.3, 95% CI 1.5-7.4). There was no increased risk associated with eating poultry or prior quinolone use. Foreign travel remains the most important risk factor for ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter infection. The possible association of both domestic- and travel-related ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter infection with bottled water needs to be further explored.

Psychological Factors Linked to Risk Perception

Science.gov (United States)

Armaş, I.; Creãu, R. Z.; Stǎnciugelu, I.

2012-04-01

Risks are mental models, which allow people to cope with dangerous phenomena (Renn, 2008; Jasanoff, 1998). The term "risk" refers to the likelihood of an adverse effect resulting from an event. The aim of the present study is to identify the psychological factors that are most predictive of risk perception in relation with age, gender, educational level and socio-economical status. Earthquake hazard was considered, because it is an emerging danger for Bucharest. 80% of the laypeople sample are waiting for this event to happen in the next three years. By integrating all the research data, it was attempted to build a risk profile of the investigated population, which could be used by institutions responsible for earthquake risk mitigation situations in Bucharest. This research appealed to the social learning Rotter (1966), auto-effectiveness Bandura (1977; 1983), and anxiety and stress theories. We used psychological variables that measured stress, personal effectiveness and the belief in personal control. The multi-modal risk perception questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence. The sample was composed of 1.376 participants recruited on a voluntary basis. The characteristics of risk (like probability and magnitude, time scales) are perceived differently according to psychological factors that play a role also in biases in people's ability to draw inferences from probabilistic information (like cognitive dissonance). Since the 1970's, it has been argued that those who perceive life's events as being beyond their locus of control (external locus of control) are significantly more anxious and less adapted. In this research, strongest associations and significant differences were obtained between sex, age and income categories with Stress vulnerability factor and the External Locus of Control factor. The profile of the low risk perceiver is that of a young, more educated, male individual with a higher self- efficacy level and an internal locus of control.

Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amado, Christina; Teräsvirta, Timo

multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice......In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either ad- ditive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change...... in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. A modelling strategy for these new time-varying parameter GARCH models is developed. It relies on a sequence of Lagrange multiplier tests, and the adequacy of the estimated models is investigated by Lagrange...

On the synchronization of neural networks containing time-varying delays and sector nonlinearity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan, J.-J.; Lin, J.-S.; Hung, M.-L.; Liao, T.-L.

2007-01-01

We present a systematic design procedure for synchronization of neural networks subject to time-varying delays and sector nonlinearity in the control input. Based on the drive-response concept and the Lyapunov stability theorem, a memoryless decentralized control law is proposed which guarantees exponential synchronization even when input nonlinearity is present. The supplementary requirement that the time-derivative of time-varying delays must be smaller than one is released for the proposed control scheme. A four-dimensional Hopfield neural network with time-varying delays is presented as the illustrative example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed synchronization scheme

Time of highest tuberculosis death risk and associated factors: an observation of 12 years in Northern Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saiyud Moolphate

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Saiyud Moolphate1,2, Myo Nyein Aung1,3, Oranuch Nampaisan1, Supalert Nedsuwan4, Pacharee Kantipong5, Narin Suriyon6, Chamnarn Hansudewechakul6, Hideki Yanai7, Norio Yamada2, Nobukatsu Ishikawa21TB/HIV Research Foundation, Chiang Rai, Thailand; 2Research Institute of Tuberculosis, Japan Anti-Tuberculosis Association (RIT-JATA, Tokyo, Japan; 3Department of Pharmacology, University of Medicine, Mandalay, Myanmar; 4Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Chiang Rai Regional Hospital, Chiang Rai, Thailand; 5Department of Health Service System Development, Chiang Rai Regional Hospital, Chiang Rai, Thailand; 6Provincial Health Office, Chiang Rai, Thailand; 7Department of Clinical Laboratory, Fukujuji Hospital, Tokyo, JapanPurpose: Northern Thailand is a tuberculosis (TB endemic area with a high TB death rate. We aimed to establish the time of highest death risk during TB treatment, and to identify the risk factors taking place during that period of high risk.Patients and methods: We explored the TB surveillance data of the Chiang Rai province, Northern Thailand, retrospectively for 12 years. A total of 19,174 TB patients (including 5,009 deaths were investigated from 1997 to 2008, and the proportion of deaths in each month of TB treatment was compared. Furthermore, multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the characteristics of patients who died in the first month of TB treatment. A total of 5,626 TB patients from 2005 to 2008 were included in this regression analysis.Result: The numbers of deaths in the first month of TB treatment were 38%, 39%, and 46% in the years 1997–2000, 2001–2004, and 2005–2008, respectively. The first month of TB treatment is the time of the maximum number of deaths. Moreover, advancing age, HIV infection, and being a Thai citizen were significant factors contributing to these earlier deaths in the course of TB treatment.Conclusion: Our findings have pointed to the specific time period and

Asymptotic stability of discrete-time systems with time-varying delay subject to saturation nonlinearities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S.-F.

2009-01-01

The asymptotic stability problem for discrete-time systems with time-varying delay subject to saturation nonlinearities is addressed in this paper. In terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), a delay-dependent sufficient condition is derived to ensure the asymptotic stability. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the theoretical results.

The Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and the Framingham Risk Score in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Intervention Over the Last 17 Years by Gender: Time-trend Analysis From the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moo-Sik Lee

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives: This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI patients at the Mayo Clinic. Methods: We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Results: Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Conclusions: Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends.

Objectively Measured Sedentary Time and Cardiovascular Risk Factor Control in US Hispanics/Latinos With Diabetes Mellitus: Results From the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL).

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xueyin; Strizich, Garrett; Hua, Simin; Sotres-Alvarez, Daniela; Buelna, Christina; Gallo, Linda C; Gellman, Marc D; Mossavar-Rahmani, Yasmin; O'Brien, Matthew J; Stoutenberg, Mark; Wang, Tao; Avilés-Santa, M Larissa; Kaplan, Robert C; Qi, Qibin

2017-05-25

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor control is a cornerstone of diabetes mellitus management. Little is known about relationships of objectively measured sedentary time and physical activity with major CVD risk factor control in individuals with diabetes mellitus. We examined associations of objectively measured sedentary time and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity with reaching major CVD risk factor control goals among US Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes mellitus. This cross-sectional analysis included 1699 participants with diabetes mellitus from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (2008-2011). Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of meeting the following 5 major CVD risk factor control goals: hemoglobin A 1c 40/50 mg/dL for men/women. After adjustment for covariates including moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, less sedentary time was associated with increased odds of reaching hemoglobin A 1c (OR=1.76 [95% CI: 1.10, 2.82]) and triglyceride control goals (OR=2.16 [1.36, 3.46]), and reaching ≥3 CVD risk factor control goals (OR=2.08 [1.34, 3.23]) (all ORs for comparisons of extreme tertiles of sedentary time). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was not associated with reaching any CVD risk factor control goals. Substituting 60-min/day of sedentary time with light-intensity physical activity was associated with increased odds of reaching hemoglobin A 1c (OR=1.18 [1.04, 1.35]), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR=1.17 [1.04, 1.32]), and triglyceride (OR=1.20 [1.05, 1.36]) control goals. Among US Hispanic/Latino adults with diabetes mellitus, less sedentary time, but not moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, was associated with improved CVD risk factor control, specifically in reaching hemoglobin A 1c and triglyceride control goals. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Fall risk factors in community-dwelling elderly people

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Astrid Bergland

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Falls are a common and serious problem for older adults. Approximately one-third of older communitydwelling people fall at least once a year. The main purpose of this paper is to present risk factors for fall in older people living at home. The databases used for identifying documentation of risk factors are Cinahl, Eric, ISI Web of Science, Cochrane Medline, Psycinfo and dissertation. Many psychosocial and medical conditions and impairment of sensorimotor function, balance and gait have been shown in large epidemiological studies to be strongly associated with falls. Several of the risk factors are interrelated. The intrinsic-extrinsic distinction seem to be an oversimplification. A better understanding of falls is usually obtained when examining the person in association with the environmental factors. Advanced age, history of falls, ADL limitations, impaired gait and mobility, visual impairment, reduced sensation, muscular weakness, poor reaction time, impaired cognition, diseases as stroke, use of psychoactive medication and use of many medications are risk factors shown to be strongly associated with falls. This means recommendation of multifactorial fall risk assessment must incorporate a range of physiological and mental tests in addition to assessing balance and gait as well as taking multiple chronic diseases and medications into account. These finding underscore the importance of multidimensional fall intervention with special focus on modifiable risk factors

Changing trends of cardiovascular risk factors among Indians: a review of emerging risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arun Kumar

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The global burden of disease due to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs is escalating, and the changing trends of CVD risk factors are identified among Indians experiencing rapid health transition. Contributory causes include: growing population with demographic shifts and altered age profile, socio-economic factors, lifestyle changes due to urbanization. Indians are also having genetic predisposition to cardiovascular diseases and adult are susceptible to vascular disease linking possible gene-environment interactions influencing ethnic diversity. Altered diets with more of junk foods along with diminished physical activity are additive factors contributing to the acceleration of CVD epidemics, along with all form of tobacco use. The pace of health transition, however, varies across geographical regions from urban to rural population with consequent variations in the relative burdens of the dominant CVDs. A comprehensive public health response must be looked to plan over all strategies to integrate policies and programs that effectively impact on the multiple determinants of CVDs to provide protection over the life span through primordial, primary and secondary prevention. Populations as well as individuals at risk must be protected through initiatives, enable nutrition-based preventive strategies to protect and promote cardiovascular health.

Major Risk Factors for Heart Disease: Overweight and Obesity

Science.gov (United States)

... we spend more time in front of computers, video games, TV, and other electronic pastimes, we have fewer ... no other risk factors. Overweight and obesity also increase the risks for diabetes, high blood pressure, high ...

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Dynamic jump intensities and risk premiums

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Ornthanalai, Chayawat; Jacobs, Kris

2012-01-01

We build a new class of discrete-time models that are relatively easy to estimate using returns and/or options. The distribution of returns is driven by two factors: dynamic volatility and dynamic jump intensity. Each factor has its own risk premium. The models significantly outperform standard...... models without jumps when estimated on S&P500 returns. We find very strong support for time-varying jump intensities. Compared to the risk premium on dynamic volatility, the risk premium on the dynamic jump intensity has a much larger impact on option prices. We confirm these findings using joint...

Cardiovascular risk factors and dementia.

Science.gov (United States)

Fillit, Howard; Nash, David T; Rundek, Tatjana; Zuckerman, Andrea

2008-06-01

Dementias, such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia, are disorders of aging populations and represent a significant economic burden. Evidence is accumulating to suggest that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be instrumental in the development of dementia. The goal of this review was to discuss the relationship between specific CVD risk factors and dementia and how current treatment strategies for dementia should focus on reducing CVD risks. We conducted a review of the literature for the simultaneous presence of 2 major topics, cardiovascular risk factors and dementia (eg, AD). Special emphasis was placed on clinical outcome studies examining the effects of treatments of pharmacologically modifiable CVD risk factors on dementia and cognitive impairment. Lifestyle risk factors for CVD, such as obesity, lack of exercise, smoking, and certain psychosocial factors, have been associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia. Some evidence suggests that effectively managing these factors may prevent cognitive decline/dementia. Randomized, placebo-controlled trials of antihypertensive medications have found that such therapy may reduce the risk of cognitive decline, and limited data suggest a benefit for patients with AD. Some small open-label and randomized clinical trials of statins have observed positive effects on cognitive function; larger studies of statins in patients with AD are ongoing. Although more research is needed, current evidence indicates an association between CVD risk factors--such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus--and cognitive decline/dementia. From a clinical perspective, these data further support the rationale for physicians to provide effective management of CVD risk factors and for patients to be compliant with such recommendations to possibly prevent cognitive decline/dementia.

Testing and estimating time-varying elasticities of Swiss gasoline demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neto, David

2012-01-01

This paper is intended to test and estimate time-varying elasticities for gasoline demand in Switzerland. For this purpose, a smooth time-varying cointegrating parameters model is investigated in order to describe smooth mutations of the Swiss gasoline demand. The methodology, based on Chebyshev polynomials, is rigorously outlined. Our empirical finding states that the time-invariance assumption does not hold for long-run price and income elasticities. Furthermore they highlight that gasoline demand passed through some periods of sensitivity and non sensitivity with respect to the price. Our empirical statements are of great importance to assess the performance of a gasoline tax as an instrument for CO 2 reduction policy. Indeed, such an instrument can contribute to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases only if the demand is not fully inelastic with respect to the price. Our results suggest that such a carbon-tax would not be always suitable since the price elasticity is found not stable over time and not always significant.

Risk factors and predictors of dementia and cognitive impairment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Neergaard, Jesper

the most prevalent dementia type, is the only cause of death among the top 10 killers in the United States that cannot be prevented, cured, or even delayed. The knowledge of risk and protective factors is therefore especially important for the development of prevention strategies, as prevention by risk...... factor intervention, is considered the key to a better control of the epidemic. Women outlive men on average, however they have poorer health status. Moreover, women have an elevated risk of dementia. This clearly justifies an increased focus on dementia specifically for women. In the development of new......, are required to ensure that the new drugs are tested on the right patients at the right time. The aims of this thesis were: i) to identify risk factors for all cause and differential dementia diagnoses, ii) to identify risk factors associated with progression from normal cognition to dementia within the follow...

Physical activity, sedentary behavior time and lipid levels in the Observation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Luxembourg study.

Science.gov (United States)

Crichton, Georgina E; Alkerwi, Ala'a

2015-08-11

Recently attention has been drawn to the health impacts of time spent engaging in sedentary behaviors. While many studies have investigated general physical activity (PA) in relation to blood lipid levels, the current study aimed to examine the intensity of activity, including sedentary behavior time, and time spent engaging in moderate and intense PA, with concentrations of HDL and LDL-cholesterol, total cholesterol, and triglycerides. Participants comprised 1331 individuals, aged 18 to 70 years, from the Observation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Luxembourg (ORISCAV-LUX) study, who underwent objective cardiovascular health assessments and completed the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Time spent engaging in sedentary behaviors (screen time on a workday and a day off, and total sitting time on a work day), and moderate and intense PA, were related to levels of HDL and LDL-cholesterol, total cholesterol, and triglycerides. Analyses were conducted in the whole sample, and then with stratification according to BMI (normal weight versus overweight/obese). Both lower screen time during days off and higher intense PA time were significantly associated with higher HDL-cholesterol after full adjustment for socio-demographic factors, dietary factors and smoking (both p sedentary behavior time variables were observed (all p sedentary behavior time variable and lipid levels in those overweight or obese. Spending less time in sedentary behaviors, and engaging in medium levels of intense physical activity may be associated with a more favorable blood lipid profile, particularly with regard to levels of HDL and triglycerides.

Nongenetic causes of childhood cancers: evidence from international variation, time trends, and risk factor studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunin, Greta R.

2004-01-01

Ionizing radiation and a variety of genetic conditions are thought to explain 5-10% of childhood cancers. Infection with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in parts of Africa and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) increase the risk of Burkitt's lymphoma and Kaposi's sarcoma, respectively. Other risk factors have not been conclusively identified. A review of the data on international variation in incidence, recent changes in incidence, and risk factors suggests that many childhood cancers are likely to have nongenetic causes. The pattern of international variation and associations with surrogates of infection suggest an infectious etiology for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, although no agent has been identified. The biologic plausibility is strong that maternal consumption of food containing DNA topoisomerase II inhibitors may increase the risk of acute myeloid leukemia, although the data are limited now. For brain tumors, cured meats, polyomaviruses, and farm exposures may have etiologic roles. Changes in the incidence and characteristics of children with hepatoblastoma as well as risk factor studies suggest a role for an exposure of very low birth weight babies. High birth weight, tea or coffee consumption, and certain paternal occupations have shown some consistency in their association with Wilms' tumor. For most of the other cancers, very few epidemiologic studies have been conducted, so it is not surprising that nongenetic risk factors have not been detected. The most important difference between the cancers for which there are good etiologic clues and those for which there are not may be the number of relevant studies

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Stephen S; Vos, Theo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Danaei, Goodarz; Shibuya, Kenji; Adair-Rohani, Heather; Amann, Markus; Anderson, H Ross; Andrews, Kathryn G; Aryee, Martin; Atkinson, Charles; Bacchus, Loraine J; Bahalim, Adil N; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balmes, John; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Baxter, Amanda; Bell, Michelle L; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona; Bonner, Carissa; Borges, Guilherme; Bourne, Rupert; Boussinesq, Michel; Brauer, Michael; Brooks, Peter; Bruce, Nigel G; Brunekreef, Bert; Bryan-Hancock, Claire; Bucello, Chiara; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bull, Fiona; Burnett, Richard T; Byers, Tim E; Calabria, Bianca; Carapetis, Jonathan; Carnahan, Emily; Chafe, Zoe; Charlson, Fiona; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Jian Shen; Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann; Child, Jennifer Christine; Cohen, Aaron; Colson, K Ellicott; Cowie, Benjamin C; Darby, Sarah; Darling, Susan; Davis, Adrian; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dentener, Frank; Des Jarlais, Don C; Devries, Karen; Dherani, Mukesh; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim; Edmond, Karen; Ali, Suad Eltahir; Engell, Rebecca E; Erwin, Patricia J; Fahimi, Saman; Falder, Gail; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferrari, Alize; Finucane, Mariel M; Flaxman, Seth; Fowkes, Francis Gerry R; Freedman, Greg; Freeman, Michael K; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ghosh, Santu; Giovannucci, Edward; Gmel, Gerhard; Graham, Kathryn; Grainger, Rebecca; Grant, Bridget; Gunnell, David; Gutierrez, Hialy R; Hall, Wayne; Hoek, Hans W; Hogan, Anthony; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian; Hu, Howard; Hubbell, Bryan J; Hutchings, Sally J; Ibeanusi, Sydney E; Jacklyn, Gemma L; Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Jonas, Jost B; Kan, Haidong; Kanis, John A; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Kawakami, Norito; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khoo, Jon-Paul; Kok, Cindy; Laden, Francine; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lan, Qing; Lathlean, Tim; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Li, Yang; Lin, John Kent; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mak, Joelle; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mallinger, Leslie; Marcenes, Wagner; March, Lyn; Marks, Robin; Martin, Randall; McGale, Paul; McGrath, John; Mehta, Sumi; Mensah, George A; Merriman, Tony R; Micha, Renata; Michaud, Catherine; Mishra, Vinod; Mohd Hanafiah, Khayriyyah; Mokdad, Ali A; Morawska, Lidia; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Murphy, Tasha; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Nelson, Paul K; Nolla, Joan Miquel; Norman, Rosana; Olives, Casey; Omer, Saad B; Orchard, Jessica; Osborne, Richard; Ostro, Bart; Page, Andrew; Pandey, Kiran D; Parry, Charles D H; Passmore, Erin; Patra, Jayadeep; Pearce, Neil; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Pope, Dan; Pope, C Arden; Powles, John; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rehm, Jürgen T; Ritz, Beate; Rivara, Frederick P; Roberts, Thomas; Robinson, Carolyn; Rodriguez-Portales, Jose A; Romieu, Isabelle; Room, Robin; Rosenfeld, Lisa C; Roy, Ananya; Rushton, Lesley; Salomon, Joshua A; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sanman, Ella; Sapkota, Amir; Seedat, Soraya; Shi, Peilin; Shield, Kevin; Shivakoti, Rupak; Singh, Gitanjali M; Sleet, David A; Smith, Emma; Smith, Kirk R; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Steenland, Kyle; Stöckl, Heidi; Stovner, Lars Jacob; Straif, Kurt; Straney, Lahn; Thurston, George D; Tran, Jimmy H; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Veerman, J Lennert; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Weintraub, Robert; Weissman, Myrna M; White, Richard A; Whiteford, Harvey; Wiersma, Steven T; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Warwick; Wilson, Nicholas; Woolf, Anthony D; Yip, Paul; Zielinski, Jan M; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Ezzati, Majid; AlMazroa, Mohammad A; Memish, Ziad A

2012-12-15

Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved

Smoking among American adolescents: a risk and protective factor analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Scal, Peter; Ireland, Marjorie; Borowsky, Iris Wagman

2003-04-01

Cigarette smoking remains a substantial threat to the current and future health of America's youth. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk and protective factors for cigarette smoking among US adolescents. Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health was used, comparing the responses of all non-smokers at Time 1 for their ability to predict the likelihood of smoking at Time 2, one year later. Data was stratified into four gender by grade group cohorts. Cross-cutting risk factors for smoking among all four cohorts were: using alcohol, marijuana, and other illicit drugs; violence involvement; having had sex; having friends who smoke and learning problems. Having a higher grade point average and family connectedness were protective across all cohorts. Other gender and grade group specific risk and protective factors were identified. The estimated probability of initiating smoking decreased by 19.2% to 54.1% both in situations of high and low risk as the number of protective factors present increased. Of the factors that predict or protect against smoking some are influential across all gender and grade group cohorts studied, while others are specific to gender and developmental stage. Prevention efforts that target both the reduction of risk factors and enhancement of protective factors at the individual, family, peer group and community are likely to reduce the likelihood of smoking initiation.

Risk factors for child maltreatment recurrence: An updated systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

White, Oliver G; Hindley, Nick; Jones, David P H

2015-10-01

Children who have been maltreated are at increased risk of further maltreatment. Identification of those at highest risk of further maltreatment is a priority for professionals working in child protection services. The current study is intended to consolidate and expand on previous work on recurrence of child maltreatment. It has sought to identify risk factors for maltreatment recurrence in the recent literature in the expectation that this may help in the practical identification of children at risk. We conducted a systematic review of cohort studies published between 2003 and 2009, identifying factors associated with maltreatment recurrence in children. Studies included demonstrated differing levels of substantiation of maltreatment. Fifteen studies met inclusion criteria but showed significant heterogeneity, varying in setting, recruitment of subjects, types of maltreatment considered and length of follow-up. Previous findings were replicated and expanded in the current study in relation to a range of factors, including rates of maltreatment recurrence, maltreatment types, frequency of previous episodes of maltreatment, child and family considerations, home environment and service provision. Factors were identified irrespective of level of maltreatment substantiation. This study provides further systematic evidence of the existence of a number of factors associated with child maltreatment recurrence. It points to the possibility of practical application of its findings within the wider context of decision making in child protection services, with the ultimate aim of reducing recurrence of maltreatment in individual cases. © The Author(s) 2014.

Time-Varying Biased Proportional Guidance with Seeker’s Field-of-View Limit

OpenAIRE

Yang, Zhe; Wang, Hui; Lin, Defu

2016-01-01

Traditional guidance laws with range-to-go information or time-to-go estimation may not be implemented in passive homing missiles since passive seekers cannot measure relative range directly. A time-varying biased proportional guidance law, which only uses line-of-sight (LOS) rate and look angle information, is proposed to satisfy both impact angle constraint and seeker’s field-of-view (FOV) limit. In the proposed guidance law, two time-varying bias terms are applied to divide the trajectory ...

Simple Model with Time-Varying Fine-Structure ``Constant''

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, M. S.

2009-10-01

Extending the original version written in colaboration with L.A. Trevisan, we study the generalisation of Dirac's LNH, so that time-variation of the fine-structure constant, due to varying electrical and magnetic permittivities is included along with other variations (cosmological and gravitational ``constants''), etc. We consider the present Universe, and also an inflationary scenario. Rotation of the Universe is a given possibility in this model.

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

Timing Foreign Exchange Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samuel W. Malone

2016-03-01

Full Text Available To improve short-horizon exchange rate forecasts, we employ foreign exchange market risk factors as fundamentals, and Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP models to handle non-linear, time-varying relationships between these fundamentals and exchange rates. Forecasts from the BTGP model conditional on the carry and dollar factors dominate random walk forecasts on accuracy and economic criteria in the Meese-Rogoff setting. Superior market timing ability for large moves, more than directional accuracy, drives the BTGP’s success. We explain how, through a model averaging Monte Carlo scheme, the BTGP is able to simultaneously exploit smoothness and rough breaks in between-variable dynamics. Either feature in isolation is unable to consistently outperform benchmarks throughout the full span of time in our forecasting exercises. Trading strategies based on ex ante BTGP forecasts deliver the highest out-of-sample risk-adjusted returns for the median currency, as well as for both predictable, traded risk factors.

Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

2014-05-21

Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

Neonatal hypothermia and associated risk factors among newborns of southern Nepal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LeClerq Steven C

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Neonatal hypothermia is associated with an increased mortality risk for 28 days. There are few community-based data on specific risk factors for neonatal hypothermia. Estimates of association between neonatal hypothermia in the community and risk factors are needed to guide the design of interventions to reduce exposure. Methods A cohort of 23,240 babies in rural southern Nepal was visited at home by field workers who measured axillary temperatures for 28 days (213,316 temperature measurements. The cumulative incidence of hypothermia (defined as Results Ten percent of the babies (n = 2342 were observed with temperatures of 2500 g. Risk varied inversely along the entire weight spectrum: for every 100 g decrement hypothermia risk increased by 7.4%, 13.5% and 31.3%% for babies between 3000 g and 2500 g, 2500 g and 2000 g and Conclusions In addition to season in which the babies were born, weight is an important risk factor for hypothermia. Smaller babies are at higher relative risk of hypothermia during the warm period and do not receive the protective seasonal benefit apparent among larger babies. The need for year-round thermal care, early breastfeeding and maternal thermal care should be emphasized. Further work is needed to quantify the benefits of other simple neonatal thermal care practices.

Scattering of a TEM wave from a time varying surface

Science.gov (United States)

Elcrat, Alan R.; Harder, T. Mark; Stonebraker, John T.

1990-03-01

A solution is given for reflection of a plane wave with TEM polarization from a planar surface with time varying properties. These properties are given in terms of the currents on the surface. The solution is obtained by numerically solving a system of differential-delay equations in the time domain.

[Socioeconomic inequalities and age and gender differences in cardiovascular risk factors].

Science.gov (United States)

López-González, Ángel A; Bennasar-Veny, Miquel; Tauler, Pedro; Aguilo, Antoni; Tomàs-Salvà, Matias; Yáñez, Aina

2015-01-01

To describe the cardiovascular risk factors in a working population in the Balearic Islands and to examine whether differences by social class vary according to age and gender. A cross-sectional study was carried out in a sample of active workers aged 20-65 years in the Balearic Islands. The participants were included in the study during their annual work health assessment in 2011. The following variables were collected: occupation, social class, age, gender, height, weight, smoking, blood pressure, lipid profile, and glucose levels. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using two different equations (Framingham and REGICOR). Differences by social class were observed for most cardiovascular risk factors. The pattern of these differences differed depending on age group and gender. Differences in obesity by social class increased with age in women but decreased in men. More differences in hypertension by social class were found among women than among men, with differences increasing with age in both genders. Significant differences by social class were found among women in lipid profile, and these differences increased with age, mainly for low levels of high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. Inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors by social class were higher among women than among men. Some cardiovascular risk factors such as smoking and obesity showed significant inequalities from a very early age. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for atherosclerosis - can they be used to identify the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Risk factors are often used in preventive care programmes to identify the patient at particular risk for developing atherosclerosis. Risk factors for atherosclerosis have also been shown to be linked to the presence of the disease at a given time, a fact that may be helpful when screening for additional atherosclerotic disease in ...

Risk factors of metabolic syndrome among food suppliers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pasdar Yahya

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction/Objective. As a risk factor for chronic diseases, metabolic syndrome (MS is increasing at an alarming rate. The prevalence of MS varies according to lifestyle and occupation in different populations. The present study aimed to determine the prevalence of MS and its components in food suppliers. Methods. A total of 112 food suppliers were randomly selected from all around the city. Data collection tools included demographic, physical activity, and food frequency questionnaires. Body composition was measured using Bio-Electrical Body Analyzer. A sample of 5 ml of fasting blood was taken from participants to assess lipid profile, blood sugar, insulin, and liver enzymes. The data were analyzed using χ2, Kolmogorov–Smirnov and ANOVA tests. Results. Participants’ mean BMI was 27.1 ± 3.9 kg/m2, 43.6% were overweight, and 26.4% were obese. Consumption of vegetables was less and of meats more than recommended amounts. The prevalence of MS was 45.5% (51 people, which increased with aging (p = 0.02. Among factors causing MS, the most common one was waist-to-hip ratio (WHR > 0.09 (72.7%, followed by high triglyceride and low HDL. Conclusion. In this study, the prevalence of MS among food suppliers was higher than the world average and than prevalence in other countries. WHR (or obesity was found to be the most important risk factor for MS. To reduce the risk of MS, changing dietary consumption habits and increased physical activity are recommended to persons with high risk and sedentary occupations.

Risk factors for neoplasms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

1991-06-01

A broad survey is given of risk factors for neoplasms. The main carcinogenic substances (including also ionizing radiation and air pollution) are listed, and are correlated with the risk factors for various cancers most frequently explained and discussed in the literature. The study is intended to serve as a basis for a general assessment of the incidence of neoplasms in children, and of cancer mortality in the entire population of Bavaria in the years 1983-1989, or 1979-1988, respectively, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment-related health survey. The study therefore takes into account not only ionizing radiation as a main risk factor, but also other risk factors detectable within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations and their effects, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or the social status. (orig./MG) [de

Implementation of lean construction techniques for minimizing the risks effect on project construction time

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Usama Hamed Issa

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The construction projects involve various risk factors which have various impacts on time objective that may lead to time-overrun. This study suggests and applies a new technique for minimizing risk factors effect on time using lean construction principles. The lean construction is implemented in this study using the last planner system through execution of an industrial project in Egypt. Evaluating the effect of using the new tool is described in terms of two measurements: Percent Expected Time-overrun (PET and Percent Plan Completed (PPC. The most important risk factors are identified and assessed, while PET is quantified at the project start and during the project execution using a model for time-overrun quantification. The results showed that total project time is reduced by 15.57% due to decreasing PET values, while PPC values improved. This is due to minimizing and mitigating the effect of most of the risk factors in this project due to implementing lean construction techniques. The results proved that the quantification model is suitable for evaluating the effect of using lean construction techniques. In addition, the results showed that average value of PET due to factors affected by lean techniques represents 67% from PET values due to all minimized risk factors.

Time-Specific Ecologic Niche Models Forecast the Risk of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Dongting Lake District, China, 2005–2010

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Xiao-Ling; Li, Xiu-Jun; Ma, Gui-Hua; Huang, Ru; Yang, Hui-Suo; Tian, Huaiyu; Xiao, Hong

2014-01-01

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005–2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.755). Time-specific Maximum Entropy models showed that the potential risk areas of HFRS significantly varied across seasons. High-risk areas were mainly found in the southeastern and southwestern areas of the Dongting Lake district. Our findings based on models focused on the spring and winter seasons showed particularly good performance. The potential risk areas were smaller in March, May and August compared with those identified for June, July and October to December. Both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use types were found to be the dominant risk factors. Conclusions/Significance Our findings indicate that time-specific ENMs provide a useful tool to forecast the spatial and temporal risk of HFRS. PMID:25184252

Contact Dynamics of EHL Contacts under Time Varying Conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venner, Cornelis H.; Popovici, G.; Wijnant, Ysbrand H.; Dalmaz, G.; Lubrecht, A.A.; Priest, M

2004-01-01

By means of numerical simulations of two situations with time varying operating conditions it is shown that the dynamic behaviour of Elasto-Hydrodynamically Lubricated contacts in terms of vibrations can be characterized as: Changes in the mutual approach lead to film thickness changes in the inlet

Established and potential risk factors for clostridum difficile infection

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Vaishnavi C

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Clostridium difficile is the aetiological agent for almost all cases of pseudo membranous colitis and 15-25% of antibiotic associated diarrhoea. In recent years, C. difficile associated disease (CDAD has been increasing in frequency and severity due to the emergence of virulent strains. Severe cases of toxic mega colon may be associated with mortality rates of 24-38%. The prevalence of CDAD is global and the incidence varies considerably from place to place. In the initial stages of its discovery, C. difficile infection was regarded mainly as an outcome of antibiotic intake and not as a life threatening disease. Intervention by man has produced conditions making C. difficile a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. The recent outbreak of CDAD in Quebec has sent the alarm bells ringing. Apart from a threefold increase in the incidence of CDAD, clinicians have also reported a higher number of cases involving toxic mega colon, colectomy or death. Among all the risk factors, inclusive of the host and the environmental factors, antibiotics are the most important ones. Surgical patients comprise 55-75% of all patients with CDAD due to the fact that perioperative prophylaxis requires the use of antibiotics. However, other drugs such as immunosuppressants and proton pump inhibitors are also important risk factors. Thus CDAD is a growing nosocomial and public health challenge. Additionally, the recognition of community acquired CDAD signals the presence of several risk factors. In this review, the established and potential risk factors of CDAD, along with the epidemiology, diagnostic modalities, management and preventive measures of the disease have been elaborated.

The extinction probability in systems randomly varying in time

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Imre Pázsit

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The extinction probability of a branching process (a neutron chain in a multiplying medium is calculated for a system randomly varying in time. The evolution of the first two moments of such a process was calculated previously by the authors in a system randomly shifting between two states of different multiplication properties. The same model is used here for the investigation of the extinction probability. It is seen that the determination of the extinction probability is significantly more complicated than that of the moments, and it can only be achieved by pure numerical methods. The numerical results indicate that for systems fluctuating between two subcritical or two supercritical states, the extinction probability behaves as expected, but for systems fluctuating between a supercritical and a subcritical state, there is a crucial and unexpected deviation from the predicted behaviour. The results bear some significance not only for neutron chains in a multiplying medium, but also for the evolution of biological populations in a time-varying environment.

Cardiometabolic risk clustering in spinal cord injury: results of exploratory factor analysis.

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Libin, Alexander; Tinsley, Emily A; Nash, Mark S; Mendez, Armando J; Burns, Patricia; Elrod, Matt; Hamm, Larry F; Groah, Suzanne L

2013-01-01

Evidence suggests an elevated prevalence of cardiometabolic risks among persons with spinal cord injury (SCI); however, the unique clustering of risk factors in this population has not been fully explored. The purpose of this study was to describe unique clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors differentiated by level of injury. One hundred twenty-one subjects (mean 37 ± 12 years; range, 18-73) with chronic C5 to T12 motor complete SCI were studied. Assessments included medical histories, anthropometrics and blood pressure, and fasting serum lipids, glucose, insulin, and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). The most common cardiometabolic risk factors were overweight/obesity, high levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C), and low levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL-C). Risk clustering was found in 76.9% of the population. Exploratory principal component factor analysis using varimax rotation revealed a 3-factor model in persons with paraplegia (65.4% variance) and a 4-factor solution in persons with tetraplegia (73.3% variance). The differences between groups were emphasized by the varied composition of the extracted factors: Lipid Profile A (total cholesterol [TC] and LDL-C), Body Mass-Hypertension Profile (body mass index [BMI], systolic blood pressure [SBP], and fasting insulin [FI]); Glycemic Profile (fasting glucose and HbA1c), and Lipid Profile B (TG and HDL-C). BMI and SBP formed a separate factor only in persons with tetraplegia. Although the majority of the population with SCI has risk clustering, the composition of the risk clusters may be dependent on level of injury, based on a factor analysis group comparison. This is clinically plausible and relevant as tetraplegics tend to be hypo- to normotensive and more sedentary, resulting in lower HDL-C and a greater propensity toward impaired carbohydrate metabolism.

Fraud Risk Factors and Audit Programme Modifications: Evidence from Jordan

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Modar Abdullatif

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This study explores how audit firms in Jordan deal with the presence of fraud risk factors in audit clients. In doing so, the study seeks to explore which fraud risk factors are more important to Jordanianauditors, and how Jordanian auditors consider modifying their audit programmes when fraud risk factors are present in clients. The study uses a structured questionnaire that was administered to seniorlevel auditors in the largest Jordanian audit firms. The findings show that almost all of the 20 fraud risk factors included in the questionnaire were only slightly important (if not unimportant, a finding that is arguably alarming. The perceived importance of modifying the audit programme in the presence of each fraud risk factor was related to the perceived importance of the fraud risk factor itself. However, changes in the nature and extent of audit procedures were more important than changes in the timing of the procedures or the members of the audit team. The most important fraud risk factors were related to the characteristics of management and its attitude towards the audit, while the least important fraud risk factors were related to the difficulties in the client’s financial performance. Factor analysis found that the fraud risk factors could be classified into four separate groups. Possible interpretations of the findings were discussed, such as considering the Jordanian business environment characteristics, and the findings were compared to those of extant international studies.

Time-varying betas and Cross-Sectional Return-Risk Relation: Evidence from the UK

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fraser, P; MacGregor, B.; Hoesli, M.; Hamelink, F.

2004-01-01

The seminal study by Fama and MacBeth in 1973 initiated a stream of papers testing for the cross-sectional relation between return and risk. The debate as to whether beta is a valid measure of risk was reanimated by Fama and French and subsequent studies. Rather than focusing on exogenous variables

Risk Factors and Etiology of Young Ischemic Stroke Patients in Estonia

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Siim Schneider

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. Reports on young patients with ischemic stroke from Eastern Europe have been scarce. This study aimed to assess risk factors and etiology of first-ever and recurrent stroke among young Estonian patients. Methods. We performed a retrospective study of consecutive ischemic stroke patients aged 18–54 years who were treated in our two hospitals from 2003 to 2012. Results. We identified 741 patients with first-ever stroke and 96 patients with recurrent stroke. Among first-time patients, men predominated in all age groups. The prevalence of well-documented risk factors in first-time stroke patients was 83% and in the recurrent group 91%. The most frequent risk factors were hypertension (53%, dyslipidemia (46%, and smoking (35%. Recurrent stroke patients had fewer less well-documented risk factors compared to first-time stroke patients (19.8 versus 30.0%, P=0.036. Atrial fibrillation was the most common cause of cardioembolic strokes (48% and large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA was the cause in 8% among those aged <35 years. Compared to first-time strokes, recurrent ones were more frequently caused by LAA (14.3 versus 24.0%, P=0.01 and less often by other definite etiology (8.5 versus 1.0%, P=0.01. Conclusions. The prevalence of vascular risk factors among Estonian young stroke patients is high. Premature atherosclerosis is a cause in a substantial part of very young stroke patients.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Ethnicity Are Independent Factors Associated with Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms.

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Jasmine Lim

Full Text Available To determine the lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS profile and factors affecting its degree of severity including cardiovascular risk profile, age, ethnicity, education level and prostate volume in a multiethnic Asian setting.We conducted a cross-sectional study of 1021 men aged 40-79 years with no clinical evidence of prostate cancer, prostate surgery or 5α-reductase inhibitor treatment of known prostate conditions. The severity of LUTS was assessed using the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS. Potential factors associated with LUTS including age, ethnicity, education, history of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia, height, weight, and prostate volume were evaluated using univariable and multivariable analyses.There were 506 (50% men found to have moderate-to-severe LUTS attaining an IPSS above 7. Overall, nocturia (45.5% was the most frequently reported symptom. Multivariable analysis showed that age, ethnicity, prostate volume and history of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia were independent factors associated with severity of LUTS (p < 0.05. Considering individual lower urinary tract symptoms, we found a strong association of storage symptom with history of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia. Malay men were significantly bothered by post micturition symptom compared to their Chinese and Indian counterparts. Stratified analyses of LUTS demonstrated a mutually exclusive cardiovascular risk factors profile defined by ethnicity.Severity of LUTS varies between different ethnicities across all age groups. In addition to age and prostate volume, ethnicity and cardiovascular risk factors including hypertension and hypercholesterolemia may also need to be taken into account in managing men with LUTS.

Musculoskeletal pain in Europe: role of personal, occupational and social risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Farioli, Andrea; Mattioli, Stefano; Quaglieri, Anna; Curti, Stefania; Violante, Francesco S; Coggon, David

2014-01-01

Objectives Prevalence of musculoskeletal pain in European countries varies considerably. We analyzed data from the fifth European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS) to explore the role of personal, occupational, and social risk factors in determining the national prevalence of musculoskeletal pain. Methods During 2010, 43,816 subjects from 34 countries were interviewed. We analyzed the one-year prevalence of back and neck/upper limb pain. Personal risk factors studied were: sex; age; educational level; socio-economic status; housework or cooking; gardening and repairs; somatising tendency; job demand-control; six physical occupational exposures; and occupational group. Data on national socio-economic risk factors were obtained from eurostat and were available for 29 countries. We fitted Poisson regression models with random intercept on country. Results 35,550 workers entered the main analysis. Among personal risk factors, somatising tendency was the strongest predictor of the symptoms. Major differences were observed by country with back pain more than twice as common in Portugal (63.8%) as Ireland (25.7%), and prevalence rates of neck/upper limb pain ranging from 26.6% in Ireland to 67.7% in Finland. Adjustment by personal risk factors slightly reduced the large variation of prevalence between countries. For back pain, the rates were more homogenous after adjustment for social risk factors. Conclusions Our analysis indicates substantial variation between European countries in the prevalence of back and neck/upper limb pain. This variation is unexplained by established individual risk factors. It may be attributable in part to socio-economic differences between countries, with higher prevalence where there is less poverty and more social support. PMID:24009006

Finite-Time H∞ Filtering for Linear Continuous Time-Varying Systems with Uncertain Observations

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Huihong Zhao

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the finite-time H∞ filtering problem for linear continuous time-varying systems with uncertain observations and ℒ2-norm bounded noise. The design of finite-time H∞ filter is equivalent to the problem that a certain indefinite quadratic form has a minimum and the filter is such that the minimum is positive. The quadratic form is related to a Krein state-space model according to the Krein space linear estimation theory. By using the projection theory in Krein space, the finite-time H∞ filtering problem is solved. A numerical example is given to illustrate the performance of the H∞ filter.

Bedroom media: One risk factor for development.

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Gentile, Douglas A; Berch, Olivia N; Choo, Hyekyung; Khoo, Angeline; Walsh, David A

2017-12-01

Mass media have numerous effects on children, ranging from influencing school performance to increased or reduced aggression. What we do not know, however, is how media availability in the bedroom moderates these effects. Although several researchers have suggested that bedroom media may influence outcomes by displacing other activities (the displacement hypothesis) or by changing the content of media consumed (the content hypothesis), these have rarely been tested directly. This study tested both hypotheses using several outcomes that are associated with bedroom media and some of the underlying mediating mechanisms. The hypotheses were tested using 3 longitudinal samples of varying methods, age, duration, and country. The results indicate that children who have bedroom media are likely to watch larger amounts of screen time which displaced important activities, such as reading and sleeping, which mediated later negative outcomes such as poor school performance. Bedroom media also influence risk for obesity and video game addiction. Children with bedroom media are also likely to be exposed to more media violence. The violent content increased normative beliefs about aggression, which increased physical aggression, providing support for the content hypothesis. This study demonstrates that media can have effects not just from what they show, but also because of what children are not exposed to. Bedroom media are therefore a robust risk factor for several aspects of child development. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Costs of fear: Behavioral and life-history responses to risk and their demographic consequences vary across species

Science.gov (United States)

LaManna, Joseph A.; Martin, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Behavioural responses to reduce predation risk might cause demographic ‘costs of fear’. Costs differ among species, but a conceptual framework to understand this variation is lacking. We use a life-history framework to tie together diverse traits and life stages to better understand interspecific variation in responses and costs. We used natural and experimental variation in predation risk to test phenotypic responses and associated demographic costs for 10 songbird species. Responses such as increased parental attentiveness yielded reduced development time and created benefits such as reduced predation probability. Yet, responses to increased risk also created demographic costs by reducing offspring production in the absence of direct predation. This cost of fear varied widely across species, but predictably with the probability of repeat breeding. Use of a life-history framework can aid our understanding of potential demographic costs from predation, both from responses to perceived risk and from direct predation mortality.

Two-dimensional phononic crystals with time-varying properties: a multiple scattering analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, D W; Cobbold, R S C

2010-01-01

Multiple scattering theory is a versatile two- and three-dimensional method for characterizing the acoustic wave transmission through many scatterers. It provides analytical solutions to wave propagation in scattering structures, and its computational complexity grows logarithmically with the number of scatterers. In this paper we show how the 2D method can be adapted to include the effects of time-varying material parameters. Specifically, a new T-matrix is defined to include the effects of frequency modulation that occurs in time-varying phononic crystals. Solutions were verified against finite difference time domain (FDTD) simulations and showed excellent agreement. This new method enables fast characterization of time-varying phononic crystals without the need to resort to lengthy FDTD simulations. Also, the method of combining T-matrices to form the T-supermatrix remains unchanged provided that the new matrix definitions are used. The method is quite compatible with existing implementations of multiple scattering theory and could be readily extended to three-dimensional multiple scattering theory

Time-varying effect moderation using the structural nested mean model: estimation using inverse-weighted regression with residuals

Science.gov (United States)

Almirall, Daniel; Griffin, Beth Ann; McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Ramchand, Rajeev; Yuen, Robert A.; Murphy, Susan A.

2014-01-01

This article considers the problem of examining time-varying causal effect moderation using observational, longitudinal data in which treatment, candidate moderators, and possible confounders are time varying. The structural nested mean model (SNMM) is used to specify the moderated time-varying causal effects of interest in a conditional mean model for a continuous response given time-varying treatments and moderators. We present an easy-to-use estimator of the SNMM that combines an existing regression-with-residuals (RR) approach with an inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) strategy. The RR approach has been shown to identify the moderated time-varying causal effects if the time-varying moderators are also the sole time-varying confounders. The proposed IPTW+RR approach provides estimators of the moderated time-varying causal effects in the SNMM in the presence of an additional, auxiliary set of known and measured time-varying confounders. We use a small simulation experiment to compare IPTW+RR versus the traditional regression approach and to compare small and large sample properties of asymptotic versus bootstrap estimators of the standard errors for the IPTW+RR approach. This article clarifies the distinction between time-varying moderators and time-varying confounders. We illustrate the methodology in a case study to assess if time-varying substance use moderates treatment effects on future substance use. PMID:23873437

Identification of Time Varying Civil Engineering Structures using Multivariate Recursive Time Domain Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, P.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

with the smoothed quanties which have been obtained from SARCOF. The results show the usefulness of the technique for identification of a time varying civil engineering structure. It is found that all the techniques give reliable estiates of the frequencies of the two lowest modes and the first mode shape. Only...

Risk factors for adolescents' attempted suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Mogens; Poulsen, Henrik Day; Nielsen, Anne

was also found among adolescents who had psychiatric disorder or a physical handicap, those who had been sentenced, were addicted to drugs, or had unstable education and unemployment records. A common feature of these significant risk factors seemed to be stigmatisation or social exclusion......This paper has been submitted to a journal for consideration, so please do not quote without permission. Adolescents' first-time suicide attempt tends to be characterized by parental psychiatric disorder or suicidal behaviour, family violence, especially child abuse and neglect. An increased risk...

Risk Factors for Chronic Disease in Viet Nam: A Review of the Literature

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Chalapati; Nhung, Nguyen Thi Trang; Marks, Geoffrey; Hoa, Nguyen Phuong

2013-01-01

Introduction Chronic diseases account for most of the disease burden in low- and middle-income countries, particularly those in Asia. We reviewed literature on chronic disease risk factors in Viet Nam to identify patterns and data gaps. Methods All population-based studies published from 2000 to 2012 that reported chronic disease risk factors were considered. We used standard chronic disease terminology to search PubMed and assessed titles, abstracts, and articles for eligibility for inclusion. We summarized relevant study information in tables listing available studies, risk factors measured, and the prevalence of these risk factors. Results We identified 23 studies conducted before 2010. The most common age range studied was 25 to 64 years. Sample sizes varied, and sample frames were national in 5 studies. A combination of behavioral, physical, and biological risk factors was studied. Being overweight or obese was the most common risk factor studied (n = 14), followed by high blood pressure (n = 11) and tobacco use (n = 10). Tobacco and alcohol use were high among men, and tobacco use may be increasing among Vietnamese women. High blood pressure is common; however, people’s knowledge that they have high blood pressure may be low. A high proportion of diets do not meet international criteria for fruit and vegetable consumption. Prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing. None of the studies evaluated measured dietary patterns or total caloric intake, and only 1 study measured dietary salt intake. Conclusion Risk factors for chronic diseases are common in Viet Nam; however, more recent and context-specific information is required for planning and monitoring interventions to reduce risk factors and chronic disease in this country. PMID:23306076

Risk factors in school shootings.

Science.gov (United States)

Verlinden, S; Hersen, M; Thomas, J

2000-01-01

Nine incidents of multiple-victim homicide in American secondary schools are examined and common risk factors are identified. The literature dealing with individual, family, social, societal, and situational risk factors for youth violence and aggression is reviewed along with existing risk assessment methods. Checklists of risk factors for serious youth violence and school violence are used in reviewing each school shooting case. Commonalties among the cases and implications for psychologists practicing in clinical and school settings are discussed.

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

2013-06-01

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Longitudinal vocabulary development in Australian urban Aboriginal children: Protective and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Short, K; Eadie, P; Descallar, J; Comino, E; Kemp, L

2017-11-01

Vocabulary is a key component of language that can impact on children's future literacy and communication. The gap between Australian Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children's reading and academic outcomes is well reported and similar to Indigenous/non-Indigenous gaps in other nations. Determining factors that influence vocabulary acquisition over time and may be responsive to treatment is important for improving Aboriginal children's communication and academic outcomes. To determine what factors influence Australian urban Aboriginal children's receptive vocabulary acquisition and whether any of these are risks or protective for vocabulary development. One hundred thirteen Aboriginal children in South Western Sydney from the longitudinal birth cohort Gudaga study were assessed on The Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test multiple times: 3 years, just prior to school entry, at the end of the first and second years of formal schooling. Multilevel models were used to determine the effects of 13 fixed and manipulable maternal, child, and family variables drawn from previous research. Higher maternal education was found to be protective at 3 years and over time. The number of children in urban Australian Aboriginal households made an impact on vocabulary development and this varied over time. From 3 to 6 years, those with early poor non-verbal cognitive skills had vocabulary skills that remained below those with stronger non-verbal skills at 3 years. Girls exhibit an earlier advantage in vocabulary acquisition, but this difference is not sustained after 4 years of age. The risk and protective factors for vocabulary development in Australian Aboriginal children are similar to those identified in other studies with some variation related to the number of children in the home. In this limited set of predictors, maternal education, gender, non-verbal cognitive skills, and the number of children in households were all shown to impact on the acquisition of vocabulary to 3�

Impact of daylight saving time on road traffic collision risk: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Rachel N; Sarma, Kiran M

2017-07-02

Bills have been put forward in the UK and Republic of Ireland proposing a move to Central European Time (CET). Proponents argue that such a change will have benefits for road safety, with daylight being shifted from the morning, when collision risk is lower, to the evening, when risk is higher. Studies examining the impact of daylight saving time (DST) on road traffic collision risk can help inform the debate on the potential road safety benefits of a move to CET. The objective of this systematic review was to examine the impact of DST on collision risk. Major electronic databases were searched, with no restrictions as to date of publication (the last search was performed in January 2017). Access to unpublished reports was requested through an international expert group. Studies that provided a quantitative analysis of the effect of DST on road safety-related outcomes were included. The primary outcomes of interest were road traffic collisions, injuries and fatalities. Twenty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. Seventeen examined the short-term impact of transitions around DST and 12 examined long-term effects. Findings from the short-term studies were inconsistent. The long-term findings suggested a positive effect of DST. However, this cannot be attributed solely to DST, as a range of road collision risk factors vary over time. The evidence from this review cannot support or refute the assertion that a permanent shift in light from morning to evening will have a road safety benefit. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Risk factors associated with medial tibial stress syndrome in runners: a systematic review and meta-analysis

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Newman P

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Phil Newman, Jeremy Witchalls, Gordon Waddington, Roger Adams Faculty of Health, Physiotherapy, University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT, Australia Background: Medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS affects 5%–35% of runners. Research over the last 40 years investigating a range of interventions has not established any clearly effective management for MTSS that is better than prolonged rest. At the present time, understanding of the risk factors and potential causative factors for MTSS is inconclusive. The purpose of this review is to evaluate studies that have investigated various risk factors and their association with the development of MTSS in runners. Methods: Medical research databases were searched for relevant literature, using the terms “MTSS AND prevention OR risk OR prediction OR incidence”. Results: A systematic review of the literature identified ten papers suitable for inclusion in a meta-analysis. Measures with sufficient data for meta-analysis included dichotomous and continuous variables of body mass index (BMI, ankle dorsiflexion range of motion, navicular drop, orthotic use, foot type, previous history of MTSS, female gender, hip range of motion, and years of running experience. The following factors were found to have a statistically significant association with MTSS: increased hip external rotation in males (standard mean difference [SMD] 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29–1.04, P10 mm (RR 1.99, 95% CI 1.00–3.96, P=0.05. Conclusion: Female gender, previous history of MTSS, fewer years of running experience, orthotic use, increased body mass index, increased navicular drop, and increased external rotation hip range of motion in males are all significantly associated with an increased risk of developing MTSS. Future studies should analyze males and females separately because risk factors vary by gender. A continuum model of the development of MTSS that links the identified risk factors and known processes is proposed

What Do We Know about Risk Factors for Fetal Growth Restriction in Africa at the Time of Sustainable Development Goals? A Scoping Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Accrombessi, Manfred; Zeitlin, Jennifer; Massougbodji, Achille; Cot, Michel; Briand, Valérie

2018-03-01

The reduction in the under-5 year mortality rate to at least as low as 25 per 1000 livebirths by 2030 has been implemented as one of the new Sustainable Development Goals. Fetal growth restriction (FGR) is one of the most important determinants of infant mortality in developing countries. In this review, we assess the extent of the literature and summarize its findings on the main preventable factors of FGR in Africa. A scoping review was conducted using the Arksey and O'Malley framework. Five bibliographic databases and grey literature were used to identify studies assessing at least one risk factor for FGR. Aggregate risk estimates for the main factors associated with FGR were calculated. Forty-five of a total of 671 articles were selected for the review. The prevalence of FGR varied between 2.6 and 59.2% according to both the African region and the definition of FGR. The main preventable factors reported were a low maternal nutritional status (aggrerate odds ratio [OR]: 2.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.59, 3.25), HIV infection (aOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.38, 2.50), malaria (aOR 1.95, 95% CI 1.04, 3.66), and gestational hypertension (aOR 2.61, 95% CI 2.42, 2.82). FGR is, to a large extent, preventable through existing efficacious interventions dedicated to malaria, HIV and nutrition. Further studies are still needed to assess the influence of risk factors most commonly documented in high-income countries. Improving research on FGR in Africa requires a consensual and standardized definition of FGR-for a higher comparability-between studies and settings. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE RISK FACTORS IN DRIVERS VERSUS PEOPLE IN OTHER OCCUPATIONS

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Hamidreza Nasri

2010-12-01

Full Text Available   Abstract INTRODUCTION: The link between occupational factors and coronary artery diseases (CAD has been studied and confirmed in many countries. Conditions associated with driving such as stress, and factors such as long working hours and the environment can increase the risk of CAD. In this study, we measured potential CAD risk factors in bus and taxi drivers and compared them with a control group. methods: 135 taxi drivers, 194 bus drivers and 121 non-drivers (control group were evaluated for CAD risk factors, i.e. age, body mass index (BMI>24, cigarette smoking, hypertension, high-density and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL, LDL, triglyceride >200, blood sugar >126 and familial history of CAD. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression tests were used to distinguish major risk factors. results: Taxi drivers have an increased risk of hypertension compared with the control group (odds ratio: crude=5.94, adjusted=9.09; P<0001. Cigarette smoking in taxi and bus drivers was 1.4 (P<0.3 and 3.24 (P<0001 times as high as the control group, respectively. The risk of increased LDL and decreased HDL in bus drivers was 4.38 and 5.28 (P<0001 times as high as the control group, respectively. The risk of obesity, high blood sugar and high triglyceride was not significantly different between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Driving is an independent risk factor for hypertension. Known CAD risk factors are also more frequent in drivers.     Keywords: Driving, cardiovascular disease, risk factor.

Risk factors for low birth-weight in areas with varying malaria transmission in Korogwe, Tanzania: implications for malaria control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mmbando, Bruno Paul; Cole-Lewis, H; Sembuche, S

2008-01-01

Low birth weight (LBW) is a risk factor for infant mortality, morbidity, growth retardation, poor cognitive development, and chronic diseases. Maternal exposure to diseases such as malaria, HIV, and syphilis has been shown to have a significant impact on birth weight (BW). This study was aimed...... babies compared to first parity women (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.19-0.98, P=0.045). Similarly, the risk of LBW was higher in women who had delayed MCH gestational booking and in women who conceived during high malaria transmission seasons. There was high degree of preference of digits ending with 0...

Adaptive Neural Network Control for Nonlinear Hydraulic Servo-System with Time-Varying State Constraints

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Shu-Min Lu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available An adaptive neural network control problem is addressed for a class of nonlinear hydraulic servo-systems with time-varying state constraints. In view of the low precision problem of the traditional hydraulic servo-system which is caused by the tracking errors surpassing appropriate bound, the previous works have shown that the constraint for the system is a good way to solve the low precision problem. Meanwhile, compared with constant constraints, the time-varying state constraints are more general in the actual systems. Therefore, when the states of the system are forced to obey bounded time-varying constraint conditions, the high precision tracking performance of the system can be easily realized. In order to achieve this goal, the time-varying barrier Lyapunov function (TVBLF is used to prevent the states from violating time-varying constraints. By the backstepping design, the adaptive controller will be obtained. A radial basis function neural network (RBFNN is used to estimate the uncertainties. Based on analyzing the stability of the hydraulic servo-system, we show that the error signals are bounded in the compacts sets; the time-varying state constrains are never violated and all singles of the hydraulic servo-system are bounded. The simulation and experimental results show that the tracking accuracy of system is improved and the controller has fast tracking ability and strong robustness.

Renal transplantation-related risk factors for the development of uterine adenomatoid tumors.

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Mizutani, Teruyuki; Yamamuro, Osamu; Kato, Noriko; Hayashi, Kazumasa; Chaya, Junya; Goto, Norihiko; Tsuzuki, Toyonori

2016-08-01

•We analyzed the epidemiological factors for clinical manifestations of uterine adenomatoid tumors.•Renal transplantation with immunosuppression therapy is risk factor for the development of uterine adenomatoid tumors.•The length of time on dialysis is risk factor for the development of uterine adenomatoid tumors.

Dengue seroprevalence, seroconversion and risk factors in Dhaka, Bangladesh

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Dhar-Chowdhury, Parnali; Paul, Kishor Kumar; Hossain, Shakhawat; Lindsay, L. Robbin; Dibernardo, Antonia; Brooks, W. Abdullah; Drebot, Michael A.

2017-01-01

Background Dengue virus (DENV) activity has been reported in Dhaka, Bangladesh since the early 1960s with the greatest burden of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever cases observed in 2000. Since this time, the intensity of dengue activity has varied from year to year, and its determining factors remained relatively unknown. In light of such gaps in knowledge, the main objectives of this study were to determine the magnitude of seroprevalence and seroconversion among the surveyed population, and establish the individual/household level risk factors for the presence of DENV antibodies among all age groups of target populations in the city of Dhaka. Methodology/Principal findings Considering the lack of fine scale investigations on the factors driving dengue activity in Bangladesh, a prospective cohort study involving serological surveys was undertaken with participant interviews and blood donation across the city of Dhaka in 2012. Study participants were recruited from 12 of 90 wards and blood samples were collected during both the pre-monsoon (n = 1125) and post-monsoon (n = 600) seasons of 2012. The findings revealed that the seroprevalence in all pre-monsoon samples was 80.0% (900/1125) while the seropositivity in the pre-monsoon samples that had paired post-monsoon samples was 83.3% (503/600). Of the 97 paired samples that were negative at the pre-monsoon time point, 56 were positive at the post-monsoon time point. This resulted in a seroprevalence of 93.2% (559/600) among individuals tested during the post-monsoon period. Seroprevalence trended higher with age with children exhibiting a lower seropositivity as compared to adults. Results from this study also indicated that DENV strains were the only flaviviruses circulating in Dhaka in 2012. A multivariate analysis revealed that age, possession of indoor potted plants, and types of mosquito control measures were significant factors associated with DENV seroprevalence; while attendance in public

Putative Risk Factors in Developmental Dyslexia: A Case-Control Study of Italian Children

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Mascheretti, Sara; Marino, Cecilia; Simone, Daniela; Quadrelli, Ermanno; Riva, Valentina; Cellino, Maria Rosaria; Maziade, Michel; Brombin, Chiara; Battaglia, Marco

2015-01-01

Although dyslexia runs in families, several putative risk factors that cannot be immediately identified as genetic predict reading disability. Published studies analyzed one or a few risk factors at a time, with relatively inconsistent results. To assess the contribution of several putative risk factors to the development of dyslexia, we conducted…

Structural nested mean models for assessing time-varying effect moderation.

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Almirall, Daniel; Ten Have, Thomas; Murphy, Susan A

2010-03-01

This article considers the problem of assessing causal effect moderation in longitudinal settings in which treatment (or exposure) is time varying and so are the covariates said to moderate its effect. Intermediate causal effects that describe time-varying causal effects of treatment conditional on past covariate history are introduced and considered as part of Robins' structural nested mean model. Two estimators of the intermediate causal effects, and their standard errors, are presented and discussed: The first is a proposed two-stage regression estimator. The second is Robins' G-estimator. The results of a small simulation study that begins to shed light on the small versus large sample performance of the estimators, and on the bias-variance trade-off between the two estimators are presented. The methodology is illustrated using longitudinal data from a depression study.

Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms

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... » [ pdf, 433 kb ] Order Materials » Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms Risk Factors for a Stroke Stroke prevention is still ... it. Treatment can delay complications that increase the risk of stroke. Transient ischemic attacks (TIAs). Seek help. ...

Comparison of AB2588 multipathway risk factors for California fossil-fuel power stations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gratt, L.B.; Levin, L.

1997-01-01

Substances released from power plants may travel through various exposure pathways resulting in human health and environmental risks. The stack air emission's primary pathway is inhalation from the ambient air. Multipathway factors (adjustment factors to the inhalation risk) are used to evaluate the importance of non-inhalation pathways (such as ingestion and dermal contact). The multipathway factor for a specific substance is the health risk by all pathways divided by the inhalation health risk for that substance. These factors are compared for fossil fuel power stations that submitted regulatory risk assessments in compliance with California Toxic Hot Spots Act (AB2588). Substances representing the largest contributions to the cancer risk are of primary concern: arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, chromium (+6), formaldehyde, nickel, lead, selenium, and PAHs. Comparisons of the chemical-specific multipathway factors show the impacts of regulatory policy decisions on the estimated health risk for trace substances. As an example, point estimates of the soil mixing depth, varying from 1 cm to 15 cm, relate to the relative importance of the pathway. For the deeper mixing depths, the root-zone uptake by homegrown tomato plants (for assumed consumption rate of 15% for San Diego) may result in high multipathway factors for several trace metals. For shallower mixing depths, soil ingestion may become the dominant non-inhalation pathway. These differences may lead to significantly different risk estimates for similar facilities located at different California locations such as to be under local regulatory authorities. The overall multipathway factor for the total cancer risk is about 2, much smaller than some of the chemical-specific factors. Science-based multipathway analysis should reduce much of the concern that may be due to policy-based decisions on pathway selection and high-value point-estimates of the parameters

Mammographic breast density as a risk factor for breast cancer: awareness in a recently screened clinical sample.

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O'Neill, Suzanne C; Leventhal, Kara Grace; Scarles, Marie; Evans, Chalanda N; Makariou, Erini; Pien, Edward; Willey, Shawna

2014-01-01

Breast density is an established, independent risk factor for breast cancer. Despite this, density has not been included in standard risk models or routinely disclosed to patients. However, this is changing in the face of legal mandates and advocacy efforts. Little information exists regarding women's awareness of density as a risk factor, their personal risk, and risk management options. We assessed awareness of density as a risk factor and whether sociodemographic variables, breast cancer risk factors. and perceived breast cancer risk were associated with awareness in 344 women with a recent screening mammogram at a tertiary care center. Overall, 62% of women had heard about density as a risk factor and 33% had spoken to a provider about breast density. Of the sample, 18% reported that their provider indicated that they had high breast density. Awareness of density as a risk factor was greater among White women and those with other breast cancer risk factors. Our results suggest that although a growing number of women are aware of breast density as a risk factor, this awareness varies. Growing mandates for disclosure suggest the need for patient education interventions for women at increased risk for the disease and to ensure all women are equally aware of their risks. Copyright © 2014 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Political risk in fair market value estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

1996-01-01

Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

Older adult awareness of the influence of cardiovascular disease risk factors on cognitive function.

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Wright, Regina S; Ford, Cassandra; Sniscak, Courtney R

2017-03-01

The aims of the current study were to (i) assess older people's awareness of the association between CVD risk factors and cognitive function; and (ii) examine whether awareness varies as a function of demographic factors. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors have been linked to subtle deficits in cognitive function. CVD risk factors increase the risk of cognitive decline and dementia. The association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and cognitive decrements has been well documented among older people; however, we are unaware of any studies that have measured older people's awareness of this relationship in an effort to assess educational needs. A descriptive, cross-sectional survey design was employed. Community-based older adults aged 60 and older completed a survey that assessed their knowledge of the association between CVD risk factors and cognitive function. One hundred fifty older adults, with a mean age of 72.88 years, completed the survey. Results showed that over 75% of the sample was aware that CVD risk factors affect cognitive function. White older adults and older adults with greater perceived financial well-being tended to be more aware of these relationships than non-White participants with less perceived financial well-being. Results suggest that many, but not all older people have awareness of this relationship. As such, there is a need for increased education about the cognitive effects of CVD risk factors, particularly among older people who are already at risk for developing CVD and those with lesser financial well-being. Appropriate educational strategies can expose older patients to the importance of healthy lifestyle and self-care to maintain cognitive function. Nurses can incorporate education into care by identifying patients that would benefit from tailored interventions and providing information to at-risk patients about how to maintain their cognitive function through management of specific CVD risk factors. © 2016

Do the risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus vary by location? A spatial analysis of health insurance claims in Northeastern Germany using kernel density estimation and geographically weighted regression

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Boris Kauhl

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The provision of general practitioners (GPs in Germany still relies mainly on the ratio of inhabitants to GPs at relatively large scales and barely accounts for an increased prevalence of chronic diseases among the elderly and socially underprivileged populations. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM is one of the major cost-intensive diseases with high rates of potentially preventable complications. Provision of healthcare and access to preventive measures is necessary to reduce the burden of T2DM. However, current studies on the spatial variation of T2DM in Germany are mostly based on survey data, which do not only underestimate the true prevalence of T2DM, but are also only available on large spatial scales. The aim of this study is therefore to analyse the spatial distribution of T2DM at fine geographic scales and to assess location-specific risk factors based on data of the AOK health insurance. Methods To display the spatial heterogeneity of T2DM, a bivariate, adaptive kernel density estimation (KDE was applied. The spatial scan statistic (SaTScan was used to detect areas of high risk. Global and local spatial regression models were then constructed to analyze socio-demographic risk factors of T2DM. Results T2DM is especially concentrated in rural areas surrounding Berlin. The risk factors for T2DM consist of proportions of 65–79 year olds, 80 + year olds, unemployment rate among the 55–65 year olds, proportion of employees covered by mandatory social security insurance, mean income tax, and proportion of non-married couples. However, the strength of the association between T2DM and the examined socio-demographic variables displayed strong regional variations. Conclusion The prevalence of T2DM varies at the very local level. Analyzing point data on T2DM of northeastern Germany’s largest health insurance provider thus allows very detailed, location-specific knowledge about increased medical needs. Risk factors

Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

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Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by