WorldWideScience

Sample records for term model evaluations

  1. Source term model evaluations for the low-level waste facility performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yim, M.S.; Su, S.I. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

    1995-12-31

    The estimation of release of radionuclides from various waste forms to the bottom boundary of the waste disposal facility (source term) is one of the most important aspects of LLW facility performance assessment. In this work, several currently used source term models are comparatively evaluated for the release of carbon-14 based on a test case problem. The models compared include PRESTO-EPA-CPG, IMPACTS, DUST and NEFTRAN-II. Major differences in assumptions and approaches between the models are described and key parameters are identified through sensitivity analysis. The source term results from different models are compared and other concerns or suggestions are discussed.

  2. Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

    2005-01-01

    Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

  3. Using Reactive Transport Modeling to Evaluate the Source Term at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Y. Chen

    2001-12-19

    The conventional approach of source-term evaluation for performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories uses speciation-solubility modeling tools and assumes pure phases of radioelements control their solubility. This assumption may not reflect reality, as most radioelements (except for U) may not form their own pure phases. As a result, solubility limits predicted using the conventional approach are several orders of magnitude higher then the concentrations of radioelements measured in spent fuel dissolution experiments. This paper presents the author's attempt of using a non-conventional approach to evaluate source term of radionuclide release for Yucca Mountain. Based on the general reactive-transport code AREST-CT, a model for spent fuel dissolution and secondary phase precipitation has been constructed. The model accounts for both equilibrium and kinetic reactions. Its predictions have been compared against laboratory experiments and natural analogues. It is found that without calibrations, the simulated results match laboratory and field observations very well in many aspects. More important is the fact that no contradictions between them have been found. This provides confidence in the predictive power of the model. Based on the concept of Np incorporated into uranyl minerals, the model not only predicts a lower Np source-term than that given by conventional Np solubility models, but also produces results which are consistent with laboratory measurements and observations. Moreover, two hypotheses, whether Np enters tertiary uranyl minerals or not, have been tested by comparing model predictions against laboratory observations, the results favor the former. It is concluded that this non-conventional approach of source term evaluation not only eliminates over-conservatism in conventional solubility approach to some extent, but also gives a realistic representation of the system of interest, which is a prerequisite for truly understanding the long-term

  4. Using Reactive Transport Modeling to Evaluate the Source Term at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Y. Chen

    2001-01-01

    The conventional approach of source-term evaluation for performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories uses speciation-solubility modeling tools and assumes pure phases of radioelements control their solubility. This assumption may not reflect reality, as most radioelements (except for U) may not form their own pure phases. As a result, solubility limits predicted using the conventional approach are several orders of magnitude higher then the concentrations of radioelements measured in spent fuel dissolution experiments. This paper presents the author's attempt of using a non-conventional approach to evaluate source term of radionuclide release for Yucca Mountain. Based on the general reactive-transport code AREST-CT, a model for spent fuel dissolution and secondary phase precipitation has been constructed. The model accounts for both equilibrium and kinetic reactions. Its predictions have been compared against laboratory experiments and natural analogues. It is found that without calibrations, the simulated results match laboratory and field observations very well in many aspects. More important is the fact that no contradictions between them have been found. This provides confidence in the predictive power of the model. Based on the concept of Np incorporated into uranyl minerals, the model not only predicts a lower Np source-term than that given by conventional Np solubility models, but also produces results which are consistent with laboratory measurements and observations. Moreover, two hypotheses, whether Np enters tertiary uranyl minerals or not, have been tested by comparing model predictions against laboratory observations, the results favor the former. It is concluded that this non-conventional approach of source term evaluation not only eliminates over-conservatism in conventional solubility approach to some extent, but also gives a realistic representation of the system of interest, which is a prerequisite for truly understanding the long-term

  5. Long-term BPA infusions. Evaluation in the rat brain tumor and rat spinal cord models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coderre, J.A.; Micca, P.L.; Nawrocky, M.M.; Joel, D.D.; Morris, G.M.

    2000-01-01

    In the BPA-based dose escalation clinical trial, the observations of tumor recurrence in areas of extremely high calculated tumor doses suggest that the BPA distribution is non-uniform. Longer (6-hour) i.v. infusions of BPA are evaluated in the rat brain tumor and spinal cord models to address the questions of whether long-term infusions are more effective against the tumor and whether long-term infusions are detrimental in the central nervous system. In the rat spinal cord, the 50% effective doses (ED 50 ) for myeloparesis were not significantly different after a single i.p. injection of BPA-fructose or a 6 hour i.v. infusion. In the rat 9L gliosarcoma brain tumor model, BNCT following 2-hr or 6-hr infusions of BPA-F produced similar levels of long term survival. (author)

  6. Evaluating Modeled Impact Metrics for Human Health, Agriculture Growth, and Near-Term Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seltzer, K. M.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Murray, L. T.

    2017-12-01

    Simulated metrics that assess impacts on human health, agriculture growth, and near-term climate were evaluated using ground-based and satellite observations. The NASA GISS ModelE2 and GEOS-Chem models were used to simulate the near-present chemistry of the atmosphere. A suite of simulations that varied by model, meteorology, horizontal resolution, emissions inventory, and emissions year were performed, enabling an analysis of metric sensitivities to various model components. All simulations utilized consistent anthropogenic global emissions inventories (ECLIPSE V5a or CEDS), and an evaluation of simulated results were carried out for 2004-2006 and 2009-2011 over the United States and 2014-2015 over China. Results for O3- and PM2.5-based metrics featured minor differences due to the model resolutions considered here (2.0° × 2.5° and 0.5° × 0.666°) and model, meteorology, and emissions inventory each played larger roles in variances. Surface metrics related to O3 were consistently high biased, though to varying degrees, demonstrating the need to evaluate particular modeling frameworks before O3 impacts are quantified. Surface metrics related to PM2.5 were diverse, indicating that a multimodel mean with robust results are valuable tools in predicting PM2.5-related impacts. Oftentimes, the configuration that captured the change of a metric best over time differed from the configuration that captured the magnitude of the same metric best, demonstrating the challenge in skillfully simulating impacts. These results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these models in simulating impact metrics related to air quality and near-term climate. With such information, the reliability of historical and future simulations can be better understood.

  7. Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Sarah F; Roberts, Jessica K; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F; Allegaert, Karel; Wilkins, Diana G; Sherwin, Catherine M T; van den Anker, John N

    2016-01-01

    The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration-time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1-14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1-28.1). Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations.

  8. Evaluating long term forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lady, George M. [Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its predecessor organizations, has published projections of U.S. energy production, consumption, distribution and prices annually for over 30 years. A natural issue to raise in evaluating the projections is an assessment of their accuracy compared to eventual outcomes. A related issue is the determination of the sources of 'error' in the projections that are due to differences between the actual versus realized values of the associated assumptions. One way to do this would be to run the computer-based model from which the projections are derived at the time the projected values are realized, using actual rather than assumed values for model assumptions; and, compare these results to the original projections. For long term forecasts, this approach would require that the model's software and hardware configuration be archived and available for many years, possibly decades, into the future. Such archival creates many practical problems; and, in general, it is not being done. This paper reports on an alternative approach for evaluating the projections. In the alternative approach, the model is run many times for cases in which important assumptions are changed individually and in combinations. A database is assembled from the solutions and a regression analysis is conducted for each important projected variable with the associated assumptions chosen as exogenous variables. When actual data are eventually available, the regression results are then used to estimate the sources of the differences in the projections of the endogenous variables compared to their eventual outcomes. The results presented here are for residential and commercial sector natural gas and electricity consumption. (author)

  9. Empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning a regional aquatic long-term monitoring program using causal modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Kathryn M.; Miller, Scott; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Archer, Erik; Roper, Brett B.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

    2015-01-01

    Conceptual models are an integral facet of long-term monitoring programs. Proposed linkages between drivers, stressors, and ecological indicators are identified within the conceptual model of most mandated programs. We empirically evaluate a conceptual model developed for a regional aquatic and riparian monitoring program using causal models (i.e., Bayesian path analysis). We assess whether data gathered for regional status and trend estimation can also provide insights on why a stream may deviate from reference conditions. We target the hypothesized causal pathways for how anthropogenic drivers of road density, percent grazing, and percent forest within a catchment affect instream biological condition. We found instream temperature and fine sediments in arid sites and only fine sediments in mesic sites accounted for a significant portion of the maximum possible variation explainable in biological condition among managed sites. However, the biological significance of the direct effects of anthropogenic drivers on instream temperature and fine sediments were minimal or not detected. Consequently, there was weak to no biological support for causal pathways related to anthropogenic drivers’ impact on biological condition. With weak biological and statistical effect sizes, ignoring environmental contextual variables and covariates that explain natural heterogeneity would have resulted in no evidence of human impacts on biological integrity in some instances. For programs targeting the effects of anthropogenic activities, it is imperative to identify both land use practices and mechanisms that have led to degraded conditions (i.e., moving beyond simple status and trend estimation). Our empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning the long-term monitoring program provided an opportunity for learning and, consequently, we discuss survey design elements that require modification to achieve question driven monitoring, a necessary step in the practice of

  10. Modeling the Interest Rate Term Structure: Derivatives Contracts Dynamics and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro L. Valls Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with a model for the term structure of interest rates and the valuation of derivative contracts directly dependent on it. The work is of a theoretical nature and deals, exclusively, with continuous time models, making ample use of stochastic calculus results and presents original contributions that we consider relevant to the development of the fixed income market modeling. We develop a new multifactorial model of the term structure of interest rates. The model is based on the decomposition of the yield curve into the factors level, slope, curvature, and the treatment of their collective dynamics. We show that this model may be applied to serve various objectives: analysis of bond price dynamics, valuation of derivative contracts and also market risk management and formulation of operational strategies which is presented in another article.

  11. Long-Term Evaluation of Ocean Tidal Variation Models of Polar Motion and UT1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karbon, Maria; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Belda, Santiago; Nilsson, Tobias; Hagedoorn, Jan; Schuh, Harald

    2018-04-01

    Recent improvements in the development of VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) and other space geodetic techniques such as the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) require very precise a-priori information of short-period (daily and sub-daily) Earth rotation variations. One significant contribution to Earth rotation is caused by the diurnal and semi-diurnal ocean tides. Within this work, we developed a new model for the short-period ocean tidal variations in Earth rotation, where the ocean tidal angular momentum model and the Earth rotation variation have been setup jointly. Besides the model of the short-period variation of the Earth's rotation parameters (ERP), based on the empirical ocean tide model EOT11a, we developed also ERP models, that are based on the hydrodynamic ocean tide models FES2012 and HAMTIDE. Furthermore, we have assessed the effect of uncertainties in the elastic Earth model on the resulting ERP models. Our proposed alternative ERP model to the IERS 2010 conventional model considers the elastic model PREM and 260 partial tides. The choice of the ocean tide model and the determination of the tidal velocities have been identified as the main uncertainties. However, in the VLBI analysis all models perform on the same level of accuracy. From these findings, we conclude that the models presented here, which are based on a re-examined theoretical description and long-term satellite altimetry observation only, are an alternative for the IERS conventional model but do not improve the geodetic results.

  12. Dynamic term structure models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Meldrum, Andrew

    This paper studies whether dynamic term structure models for US nominal bond yields should enforce the zero lower bound by a quadratic policy rate or a shadow rate specification. We address the question by estimating quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) and shadow rate models with at most four...

  13. Examination of constitutive model for evaluating long-term mechanical behavior of buffer. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaji, Kazuhiko; Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Shimogouchi, Takafumi; Shiratake, Toshikazu; Tamura, Hirokuni

    2004-02-01

    On the R and D of the high-level radioactive waste repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining each ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the various external forces will be affected to buffer intricately for a long period of time. So, to make clear the mechanical deformation behavior of buffer against the external force is important, because of carrying out safety assessment of EBS accurately. In this report, several sets of parameters are chosen for the previously selected two constitutive models, Sekiguchi-Ohta model and Adachi-Oka model, and the element tests and mock-up tests are simulated using these parameters. Through the simulation, applicability of the constitutive models and parameters is examined. Moreover, simulation analyses of EBS using these parameters is examined. Moreover, simulation analyses of EBS using these parameters were carried out, and mechanical behavior is evaluated over a long period of time. Analysis estimated the amount of settlement of the over pack, the stress state of buffer material, the reaction force to a base rock, etc., and the result that EBS is mechanically stable over a long period of time was obtained. Next, in order to prove analyses results a side, literature survey was conducted about geological age, the dynamics history of a Smectite layer. The outline plan was drawn up about the natural analogue verification method and preliminary examination was performed about the applicability of Freezing Sampling'. (author)

  14. Long term evaluation of mesenchymal stem cell therapy in a feline model of chronic allergic asthma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trzil, Julie E; Masseau, Isabelle; Webb, Tracy L; Chang, Chee-hoon; Dodam, John R; Cohn, Leah A; Liu, Hong; Quimby, Jessica M; Dow, Steven W; Reinero, Carol R

    2014-01-01

    Background Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) decrease airway eosinophilia, airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR), and remodeling in murine models of acutely induced asthma. We hypothesized that MSCs would diminish these hallmark features in a chronic feline asthma model. Objective To document effects of allogeneic, adipose-derived MSCs on airway inflammation, airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR), and remodeling over time and investigate mechanisms by which MSCs alter local and systemic immunologic responses in chronic experimental feline allergic asthma. Methods Cats with chronic, experimentally-induced asthma received six intravenous infusions of MSCs (0.36–2.5X10E7 MSCs/infusion) or placebo bimonthly at the time of study enrollment. Cats were evaluated at baseline and longitudinally for one year. Outcome measures included: bronchoalveolar lavage fluid cytology to assess airway eosinophilia; pulmonary mechanics and clinical scoring to assess AHR; and thoracic computed tomographic (CT) scans to assess structural changes (airway remodeling). CT scans were evaluated using a scoring system for lung attenuation (LA) and bronchial wall thickening (BWT). To assess mechanisms of MSC action, immunologic assays including allergen-specific IgE, cellular IL-10 production, and allergen-specific lymphocyte proliferation were performed. Results There were no differences between treatment groups or over time with respect to airway eosinophilia or AHR. However, significantly lower LA and BWT scores were noted in CT images of MSC-treated animals compared to placebo-treated cats at month 8 of the study (LA p=0.0311; BWT p=0.0489). No differences were noted between groups in the immunologic assays. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance When administered after development of chronic allergic feline asthma, MSCs failed to reduce airway inflammation and AHR. However, repeated administration of MSCs at the start of study did reduce computed tomographic measures of airway remodeling by month 8, though

  15. Short Term Evaluation of an Anatomically Shaped Polycarbonate Urethane Total Meniscus Replacement in a Goat Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A C T Vrancken

    Full Text Available Since the treatment options for symptomatic total meniscectomy patients are still limited, an anatomically shaped, polycarbonate urethane (PCU, total meniscus replacement was developed. This study evaluates the in vivo performance of the implant in a goat model, with a specific focus on the implant location in the joint, geometrical integrity of the implant and the effect of the implant on synovial membrane and articular cartilage histopathological condition.The right medial meniscus of seven Saanen goats was replaced by the implant. Sham surgery (transection of the MCL, arthrotomy and MCL suturing was performed in six animals. The contralateral knee joints of both groups served as control groups. After three months follow-up the following aspects of implant performance were evaluated: implant position, implant deformation and the histopathological condition of the synovium and cartilage.Implant geometry was well maintained during the three month implantation period. No signs of PCU wear were found and the implant did not induce an inflammatory response in the knee joint. In all animals, implant fixation was compromised due to suture breakage, wear or elongation, likely causing the increase in extrusion observed in the implant group. Both the femoral cartilage and tibial cartilage in direct contact with the implant showed increased damage compared to the sham and sham-control groups.This study demonstrates that the novel, anatomically shaped PCU total meniscal replacement is biocompatible and resistant to three months of physiological loading. Failure of the fixation sutures may have increased implant mobility, which probably induced implant extrusion and potentially stimulated cartilage degeneration. Evidently, redesigning the fixation method is necessary. Future animal studies should evaluate the improved fixation method and compare implant performance to current treatment standards, such as allografts.

  16. Evaluation of long-term creep-fatigue life of stainless steel weldment based on a microstructure degradation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asayama, Tai; Hasebe, Shinichi

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes a newly developed analytical method of evaluation of creep-fatigue strength of stainless weld metals. Based on the observation that creep-fatigue crack initiates adjacent to the interface of sigma-phase/delta-ferrite and matrix, a mechanistic model which allows the evaluation of micro stress/strain concentration adjacent to the interface was developed. Fatigue and creep damage were evaluated using the model which describes the microstructure after exposed to high temperatures for a long time. Thus it was made possible to predict analytically the long-term creep-fatigue life of stainless steel metals whose microstructure is degraded as a result of high temperature service. (author)

  17. Evaluation for the models of neutron diffusion theory in terms of power density distributions of the HTTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takamatsu, Kuniyoshi; Shimakawa, Satoshi; Nojiri, Naoki; Fujimoto, Nozomu

    2003-10-01

    In the case of evaluations for the highest temperature of the fuels in the HTTR, it is very important to expect the power density distributions accurately; therefore, it is necessary to improve the analytical model with the neutron diffusion and the burn-up theory. The power density distributions are analyzed in terms of two models, the one mixing the fuels and the burnable poisons homogeneously and the other modeling them heterogeneously. Moreover these analytical power density distributions are compared with the ones derived from the gross gamma-ray measurements and the Monte Carlo calculational code with continuous energy. As a result the homogeneous mixed model isn't enough to expect the power density distributions of the core in the axial direction; on the other hand, the heterogeneous model improves the accuracy. (author)

  18. Identfying the Needs of Pre-Service Classroom Teachers about Science Teaching Methodology Course in Terms of Parlett's Illuminative Program Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çaliskan, Ilke

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the needs of third grade classroom teaching students about science teaching course in terms of Parlett's Illuminative program evaluation model. Phenomographic research design was used in this study. Illuminative program evaluation model was chosen for this study in terms of its eclectic and process-based…

  19. Identfying the Needs of Pre-Service Classroom Teachers about Science Teaching Methodology Courses in Terms of Parlett's Illuminative Program Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çaliskan, Ilke

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the needs of third grade classroom teaching students about science teaching course in terms of Parlett's Illuminative program evaluation model. Phenomographic research design was used in this study. Illuminative program evaluation model was chosen for this study in terms of its eclectic and process-based…

  20. Source term evaluation model for high-level radioactive waste repository with decay chain build-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopra, Manish; Sunny, Faby; Oza, R B

    2016-09-18

    A source term model based on two-component leach flux concept is developed for a high-level radioactive waste repository. The long-lived radionuclides associated with high-level waste may give rise to the build-up of activity because of radioactive decay chains. The ingrowths of progeny are incorporated in the model using Bateman decay chain build-up equations. The model is applied to different radionuclides present in the high-level radioactive waste, which form a part of decay chains (4n to 4n + 3 series), and the activity of the parent and daughter radionuclides leaching out of the waste matrix is estimated. Two cases are considered: one when only parent is present initially in the waste and another where daughters are also initially present in the waste matrix. The incorporation of in situ production of daughter radionuclides in the source is important to carry out realistic estimates. It is shown that the inclusion of decay chain build-up is essential to avoid underestimation of the radiological impact assessment of the repository. The model can be a useful tool for evaluating the source term of the radionuclide transport models used for the radiological impact assessment of high-level radioactive waste repositories.

  1. Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, A. F. M.; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony S.; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2017-12-01

    The primary objective of this study is to develop a stochastic rainfall generation model that can match not only the short resolution (daily) variability but also the longer resolution (monthly to multiyear) variability of observed rainfall. This study has developed a Markov chain (MC) model, which uses a two-state MC process with two parameters (wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry transition probabilities) to simulate rainfall occurrence and a gamma distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. Starting with the traditional MC-gamma model with deterministic parameters, this study has developed and assessed four other variants of the MC-gamma model with different parameterisations. The key finding is that if the parameters of the gamma distribution are randomly sampled each year from fitted distributions rather than fixed parameters with time, the variability of rainfall depths at both short and longer temporal resolutions can be preserved, while the variability of wet periods (i.e. number of wet days and mean length of wet spell) can be preserved by decadally varied MC parameters. This is a straightforward enhancement to the traditional simplest MC model and is both objective and parsimonious.

  2. Cement Waste Matrix Evaluation and Modelling of the Long Term Stability of Cementitious Waste Matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martensson, P.; Cronstrand, P.

    2013-01-01

    Cement based materials are often used as a solidification matrix for wet radioactive waste from nuclear power plants such as ion exchange resins, sludge and evaporator concentrates. The mechanical and chemical properties of the cement-waste matrix are affected by the type and the concentration of the waste. For this reason the recipe used in the solidification process has to be carefully adjusted to respond to the variations of the waste. At the Ringhals Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) an evaporator was to be taken into operation during the mid 2005. As a result of this process an evaporator concentrate containing boric acid was expected. The aims of the present study were to develop a recipe for the solidification of artificial evaporator concentrates, (AEC), containing H 3 BO 3 and measure the compressive strength of the waste/cement matrix over a period of 4 years. The confirmation of the previously reported retarding properties of H 3 BO 3 and the studies of AEC without H 3 BO 3 were also included as a part of this work. Finally, thermodynamic calculations were used as a tool in order to predict the evolution of the mineralogy and integrity for the different cement-waste specimens over very long periods of time, i.e. up to about 100 000 years. The most important finding was that when an optimized waste/cement matrix recipe was used the compressive strength increased during the entire 4 year period and no signs of degradation were noticed. It was also found that the long-term performance of the waste matrices is to a large extent site-specific. In general, the composition of the infiltrating water is more influential than the waste matrices, both on the degradation of the waste matrices itself as well as on the engineered barriers. (author)

  3. Toyotarity. Term, model, range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanisław Borkowski

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The Toyotarity and BOST term was presented in the chapter. The BOST method allows to define relations between material resources and human resources and between human resources and human resources (TOYOTARITY. This term was also invented by the Author (and is legally protected. The idea of methodology is an outcome of 12 years of work.

  4. PROCEDURE FOR THE EVALUATION OF MEASURED DATA IN TERMS OF VIBRATION DIAGNOSTICS BY APPLICATION OF A MULTIDIMENSIONAL STATISTICAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas TOMKO

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation process of measured data in terms of vibration diagnosis is problematic for timeline constructors. The complexity of such an evaluation is compounded by the fact that it is a process involving a large amount of disparate measurement data. One of the most effective analytical approaches when dealing with large amounts of data is to engage in a process using multidimensional statistical methods, which can provide a picture of the current status of the flexibility of the machinery. The more methods that are used, the more precise the statistical analysis of measurement data, making it possible to obtain a better picture of the current condition of the machinery.

  5. Evaluation of different nitrous oxide production models with four continuous long-term wastewater treatment process data series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spérandio, Mathieu; Pocquet, Mathieu; Guo, Lisha; Ni, Bing-Jie; Vanrolleghem, Peter A; Yuan, Zhiguo

    2016-03-01

    Five activated sludge models describing N2O production by ammonium oxidising bacteria (AOB) were compared to four different long-term process data sets. Each model considers one of the two known N2O production pathways by AOB, namely the AOB denitrification pathway and the hydroxylamine oxidation pathway, with specific kinetic expressions. Satisfactory calibration could be obtained in most cases, but none of the models was able to describe all the N2O data obtained in the different systems with a similar parameter set. Variability of the parameters can be related to difficulties related to undescribed local concentration heterogeneities, physiological adaptation of micro-organisms, a microbial population switch, or regulation between multiple AOB pathways. This variability could be due to a dependence of the N2O production pathways on the nitrite (or free nitrous acid-FNA) concentrations and other operational conditions in different systems. This work gives an overview of the potentialities and limits of single AOB pathway models. Indicating in which condition each single pathway model is likely to explain the experimental observations, this work will also facilitate future work on models in which the two main N2O pathways active in AOB are represented together.

  6. Modelling dynamic transport and adsorption of arsenic in soil-bed filters for long-term performance evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Sourav; Mondal, Raka; de, Sirshendu; Griffiths, Ian

    2017-11-01

    Purification of contaminated water following the safe water guidelines while generating sufficiently large throughput is a crucial requirement for the steady supply of safe water to large populations. Adsorption-based filtration processes using a multilayer soil bed has been posed as a viable method to achieve this goal. This work describes the theory of operation and prediction of the long-term behaviour of such a system. The fixed-bed column has a single input of contaminated water from the top and an output from the bottom. As the contaminant passes through the column, it is adsorbed by the medium. Like any other adsorption medium, the filter has a certain lifespan, beyond which the filtrate does not meet the safe limit of drinking water, which is defined as `breakthrough'. A mathematical model is developed that couples the fluid flow through the porous medium to the convective, diffusive and adsorptive transport of the contaminant. The results are validated with experimental observations and the model is then used to predict the breakthrough and lifetime of the filter. The key advantage of this model is that it can predict the long-term behaviour of any adsorption column system for any set of physical characteristics of the system. This worked was supported by the EPSRC Global Challenge Research Fund Institutional Sponsorship 2016.

  7. Application feasibility study of evaluation technology for long-term rock behavior. 2. Parameter setting of variable compliance type model and application feasibility study for rock behavior evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Shin; Noda, Masaru; Niunoya, Sumio; Hata, Koji; Matsui, Hiroya; Mikake, Shinichiro

    2012-01-01

    Creep phenomenon is one of the long-term rock behaviors. In many of rock-creep studies, model and parameter have been verified in 2D analysis using model parameter acquired by uniaxial compression test etc considering rock types. Therefore, in this study model parameter was set by uniaxial compression test with classified rock samples which were taken from pilot boring when the main shaft was constructed. Then, comparison between measured value and 3D excavation analysis with identified parameter was made. By and large, the study showed that validity of identification methodology of parameter to identify reproduction of measured value and analysis method. (author)

  8. Development of a tool dedicated to the evaluation of hydrogen term source for technological Wastes: assumptions, physical models, and validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamouroux, C. [CEA Saclay, Nuclear Energy Division /DANS, Department of physico-chemistry, 91191 Gif sur yvette (France); Esnouf, S. [CEA Saclay, DSM/IRAMIS/SIS2M/Radiolysis Laboratory , 91191 Gif sur yvette (France); Cochin, F. [Areva NC,recycling BU, DIRP/RDP tour Areva, 92084 Paris La Defense (France)

    2013-07-01

    In radioactive waste packages hydrogen is generated, in one hand, from the radiolysis of wastes (mainly organic materials) and, in the other hand, from the radiolysis of water content in the cement matrix. In order to assess hydrogen generation 2 tools based on operational models have been developed. One is dedicated to the determination of the hydrogen source term issues from the radiolysis of the wastes: the STORAGE tool (Simulation Tool Of Emission Radiolysis Gas), the other deals with the hydrogen source term gas, produced by radiolysis of the cement matrices (the Damar tool). The approach used by the STORAGE tool for assessing the production rate of radiolysis gases is divided into five steps: 1) Specification of the data packages, in particular, inventories and radiological materials defined for a package medium; 2) Determination of radiochemical yields for the different constituents and the laws of behavior associated, this determination of radiochemical yields is made from the PRELOG database in which radiochemical yields in different irradiation conditions have been compiled; 3) Definition of hypothesis concerning the composition and the distribution of contamination inside the package to allow assessment of the power absorbed by the constituents; 4) Sum-up of all the contributions; And finally, 5) validation calculations by comparison with a reduced sampling of packages. Comparisons with measured values confirm the conservative character of the methodology and give confidence in the safety margins for safety analysis report.

  9. Evaluation for Long Term PM10 Concentration Forecasting using Multi Linear Regression (MLR and Principal Component Regression (PCR Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samsuri Abdullah

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution in Peninsular Malaysia is dominated by particulate matter which is demonstrated by having the highest Air Pollution Index (API value compared to the other pollutants at most part of the country. Particulate Matter (PM10 forecasting models development is crucial because it allows the authority and citizens of a community to take necessary actions to limit their exposure to harmful levels of particulates pollution and implement protection measures to significantly improve air quality on designated locations. This study aims in improving the ability of MLR using PCs inputs for PM10 concentrations forecasting. Daily observations for PM10 in Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia from January 2003 till December 2011 were utilized to forecast PM10 concentration levels. MLR and PCR (using PCs input models were developed and the performance was evaluated using RMSE, NAE and IA. Results revealed that PCR performed better than MLR due to the implementation of PCA which reduce intricacy and eliminate data multi-collinearity.

  10. Health economic modeling to assess short-term costs of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes, and related macrosomia - a pilot evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenoir-Wijnkoop, Irene; van der Beek, Eline M; Garssen, Johan; Nuijten, Mark J C; Uauy, Ricardo D

    2015-01-01

    Despite the interest in the impact of overweight and obesity on public health, little is known about the social and economic impact of being born large for gestational age or macrosomic. Both conditions are related to maternal obesity and/or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and associated with increased morbidity for mother and child in the perinatal period. Poorly controlled diabetes during pregnancy, pre- pregnancy maternal obesity and/or excessive maternal weight gain during pregnancy are associated with intermittent periods of fetal exposure to hyperglycemia and subsequent hyperinsulinemia, leading to increased birth weight (e.g., macrosomia), body adiposity, and glycogen storage in the liver. Macrosomia is associated with an increased risk of developing obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus later in life. Provide insight in the short-term health-economic impact of maternal overweight, GDM, and related macrosomia. To this end, a health economic framework was designed. This pilot study also aims to encourage further health technology assessments, based on country- and population-specific data. The estimation of the direct health-economic burden of maternal overweight, GDM and related macrosomia indicates that associated healthcare expenditures are substantial. The calculation of a budget impact of GDM, based on a conservative approach of our model, using USA costing data, indicates an annual cost of more than $1,8 billion without taking into account long-term consequences. Although overweight and obesity are a recognized concern worldwide, less attention has been given to the health economic consequences of these conditions in women of child-bearing age and their offspring. The presented outcomes underline the need for preventive management strategies and public health interventions on life style, diet and physical activity. Also, the predisposition in people of Asian ethnicity to develop diabetes emphasizes the urgent need to collect more country

  11. Contribution and limits of geochemical calculation codes to evaluate the long term behavior of nuclear waste glasses; Apports et limites des modeles geochimiques pour l'evaluation du comportement a long terme des verres de confinement des dechets radioactifs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, B; Crovisier, J L [Universite Louis Pasteur, Centre de Geochimie de la Surface, CNRS ULP, Ecole et Observatoire des Sciences de la Terre, 67 - Strasbourg (France)

    1997-07-01

    Geochemical models have been intensively developed by researchers since more than twenty five years in order to be able to better understand and/or predict the long term stability/instability of water-rock systems. These geochemical codes were ail built first on a thermodynamic approach deriving from the application of Mass Action Law. The resulting first generation of models allowed to detect or predict the possible mass transfers (thermodynamic models) between aqueous and mineral phases including irreversible dissolutions of primary minerals and/or precipitation near equilibrium of secondary mineral phases. The recent development of models based on combined thermodynamics and kinetics opens the field of Lime dependent reactions prediction. This is crucial if one thinks to combine geochemical and hydrological studies in the so-called coupled models for transport and reaction calculations. All these models are progressively applied to the prediction of long term behavior of mineral phases, and more specifically glasses. In order to succeed in chat specific extension of the models, but also the data bases, there is a great need for additional new data from experimental approaches and from natural analogues. The modelling approach appears than also very useful in order to interpret the results of experimental data and to relate them to long term data extracted from natural analogues. Specific functions for modelling solid solution phases mat' also be used for describing the products of glasses alterations. (authors)

  12. Evaluation models and evaluation use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contandriopoulos, Damien; Brousselle, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    The use of evaluation results is at the core of evaluation theory and practice. Major debates in the field have emphasized the importance of both the evaluator’s role and the evaluation process itself in fostering evaluation use. A recent systematic review of interventions aimed at influencing policy-making or organizational behavior through knowledge exchange offers a new perspective on evaluation use. We propose here a framework for better understanding the embedded relations between evaluation context, choice of an evaluation model and use of results. The article argues that the evaluation context presents conditions that affect both the appropriateness of the evaluation model implemented and the use of results. PMID:23526460

  13. Evaluating litter decomposition and soil organic matter dynamics in earth system models: contrasting analysis of long-term litter decomposition and steady-state soil carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, G. B.; Wieder, W. R.

    2012-12-01

    litterfall and model-derived climatic decomposition index. While comparison with the LIDET 10-year litterbag study reveals sharp contrasts between CLM4 and DAYCENT, simulations of steady-state soil carbon show less difference between models. Both CLM4 and DAYCENT significantly underestimate soil carbon. Sensitivity analyses highlight causes of the low soil carbon bias. The terrestrial biogeochemistry of earth system models must be critically tested with observations, and the consequences of particular model choices must be documented. Long-term litter decomposition experiments such as LIDET provide a real-world process-oriented benchmark to evaluate models and can critically inform model development. Analysis of steady-state soil carbon estimates reveal additional, but here different, inferences about model performance.

  14. Examination of constitutive model for evaluating long-term behavior of buffer. Document prepared by other institute, based on the trust contract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Namikawa, Tsutomu; Takaji, Kazuhiko

    2002-02-01

    On the R and D of the high-level radioactive waste repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the external force is affected to buffer for a long period of time. So, it is necessary to make clear the mechanical deformation behavior of buffer to the external force, because of carrying out safety assessment of EBS accurately. In this report, the applicable constitutive model have been narrowed down from within many one for clay proposed up to the present, from the viewpoint of adoption possibility to the evaluation of the long-term mechanical behavior for buffer. To put it concretely, the investigation of constitutive models for clay, the applicability confirmation of the representative model by analysis using test data, and the proposal of experimental method available for simulation analysis is carried out. The results of the elemental test simulations using Adachi-Oka model and Sekiguchi-Ohta model as the representative model of ''Over stress model'' and Flow surface model'' are as follows. Both of the models are not make much difference. A limited part of the test results is expressed suitably according to the appropriate decision of viscous parameters, but the blanket behavior of each tests is not expressed suitably in either model. (author)

  15. Evaluation of the E mu-pim-1 transgenic mouse model for short-term carcinogenicity testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Kreijl, C. F.; van Oordt, C. W. V.; Kroese, E. D.

    1998-01-01

    of T-cell lymphomas. Because of the low incidence of spontaneous tumors and the increased sensitivity to N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea-induced carcinogenesis, E mu-pim-1 mice were suggested to be one of the first potential and attractive candidates to be used in short-term carcinogenicity testing...

  16. Using targeted short-term field investigations to calibrate and evaluate the structure of a hydrological model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hughes, DA

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available catchments and are applied in a daily version of the model. The results demonstrate the importance of ensuring that field observations are measuring the same hydrological variables as the model simulations. At one study site, there was a mismatch in the soil...

  17. Long-term consequences of non-intentional flows of substances: Modelling non-intentional flows of lead in the Dutch economic system and evaluating their environmental consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Voet, Ester van der; Holderbeke, Mirja van; Timmermans, Veerle

    2009-01-01

    Substances may enter the economy and the environment through both intentional and non-intentional flows. These non-intentional flows, including the occurrence of substances as pollutants in mixed primary resources (metal ores, phosphate ores and fossil fuels) and their presence in re-used waste streams from intentional use may have environmental and economic consequences in terms of pollution and resource availability. On the one hand, these non-intentional flows may cause pollution problems. On the other hand, these flows have the potential to be a secondary source of substances. This article aims to quantify and model the non-intentional flows of lead, to evaluate their long-term environmental consequences, and compare these consequences to those of the intentional flows of lead. To meet this goal, the model combines all the sources of non-intentional flows of lead within one model, which also includes the intentional flows. Application of the model shows that the non-intentional flows of lead related to waste streams associated with intentional use are decreasing over time, due to the increased attention given to waste management. However, as contaminants in mixed primary resources application, lead flows are increasing as demand for these applications is increasing.

  18. Mesh-Sequenced Realizations for Evaluation of Subgrid-Scale Models for Turbulent Combustion (Short Term Innovative Research Program)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-15

    conservation equations. The closure problem hinges on the evaluation of the filtered chemical production rates. In MRA/MSR, simultaneous large-eddy... simultaneous , constrained large-eddy simulations at three different mesh levels as a means of connecting reactive scalar information at different...functions of a locally normalized subgrid Damköhler number (a measure of the distribution of inverse chemical time scales in the neighborhood of a

  19. Evaluation of economical introduction of nuclear fusion based on a long-term world energy and environment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokimatsu, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Okano, K.; Konishi, S.; Ogawa, Y.; Yamaji, K.

    2003-01-01

    Debates about whether or not to invest heavily in nuclear fusion as a future innovative energy option have been made within the context of energy technology development strategies. The time frame by which nuclear fusion could become competitive in the energy market has not been adequately studied, nor has roles of the nuclear fusion in energy systems and the environment. The present study has two objectives. One is to reveal the conditions under which nuclear fusion could be introduced economically (hereafter, we refer to such introductory conditions as breakeven prices) in future energy systems. The other objective is to evaluate the future roles of nuclear fusion in energy systems and in the environment. Here we chose two roles that nuclear fusion will take on when breakeven prices are achieved: i) reduction of annual global total energy systems cost, and ii) mitigation of carbon tax (shadow price of carbon) under CO 2 constraints. Future uncertainties are key issues in evaluating nuclear fusion. Here we treated the following uncertainties: energy demand scenarios, introduction time frame for nuclear fusion, capacity projections of nuclear fusion, CO 2 target in 2100. From our investigations, we conclude that the presently designed nuclear fusion reactors may be ready for economical introduction into energy systems beginning around 2050-2060, and we can confirm that the favorable introduction of the reactors would reduce both the annual energy systems cost and the carbon tax (the shadow price of carbon) under a CO 2 concentration constraint; however, latter introduction of them decreases the cost and the tax less than five times. Earlier introduction of nuclear fusion reactors are desirable for energy systems and environment. (author)

  20. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  1. Using long-term ARM observations to evaluate Arctic mixed-phased cloud representation in the GISS ModelE GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamer, K.; Fridlind, A. M.; Luke, E. P.; Tselioudis, G.; Ackerman, A. S.; Kollias, P.; Clothiaux, E. E.

    2016-12-01

    The presence of supercooled liquid in clouds affects surface radiative and hydrological budgets, especially at high latitudes. Capturing these effects is crucial to properly quantifying climate sensitivity. Currently, a number of CGMs disagree on the distribution of cloud phase. Adding to the challenge is a general lack of observations on the continuum of clouds, from high to low-level and from warm to cold. In the current study, continuous observations from 2011 to 2014 are used to evaluate all clouds produced by the GISS ModelE GCM over the ARM North Slope of Alaska site. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Global Weather State (GWS) approach reveals that fair-weather (GWS 7, 32% occurrence rate), as well as mid-level storm related (GWS 5, 28%) and polar (GWS 4, 14%) clouds, dominate the large-scale cloud patterns at this high latitude site. At higher spatial and temporal resolutions, ground-based cloud radar observations reveal a majority of single layer cloud vertical structures (CVS). While clear sky and low-level clouds dominate (each with 30% occurrence rate) a fair amount of shallow ( 10%) to deep ( 5%) convection are observed. Cloud radar Doppler spectra are used along with depolarization lidar observations in a neural network approach to detect the presence, layering and inhomogeneity of supercooled liquid layers. Preliminary analyses indicate that most of the low-level clouds sampled contain one or more supercooled liquid layers. Furthermore, the relationship between CVS and the presence of supercooled liquid is established, as is the relationship between the presence of supercool liquid and precipitation susceptibility. Two approaches are explored to bridge the gap between large footprint GCM simulations and high-resolution ground-based observations. The first approach consists of comparing model output and ground-based observations that exhibit the same column CVS type (i.e. same cloud depth, height and layering

  2. Program Evaluation in Cost Benefit Terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, C. Kenneth

    This paper advances a model, called the expected opportunity loss model, for curriculum evaluation. This decision-making technique utilizes subjective data by ranking courses according to their expected contributions to the primary objective of the total program. The model also utilizes objective data in the form of component costs, and differs…

  3. Hydraulic/mechanical modeling of smectitic materials for HMC analytical evaluation of the long term performance of TRU geological repository - 59090

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Ichizo; Owada, Hitoshi; Ishii, Tomoko

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at evaluation of the long term performance of transuranic (TRU) geological repositories, the hydraulic/ mechanical/chemical (HMC) analysis method has been studied. In this phase of research (four years) the hydraulic/mechanical modeling of smectitic materials for HMC analyses has been studied. In this paper, new experimental methods for investigation of the hydraulic/mechanical behavior of smectitic materials were developed. For hydraulic modeling, the measurement method of the specific surface area of compacted smectitic materials was developed using X-ray diffraction (XRD). The results of the method were applied to the Kozeny-Carman law. Since the specific surface area represents the microstructure of smectitic materials such as the degree of swelling, it was found that the Kozeny-Carman law using measured specific surface area of compacted smectitic materials was useful in evaluating the hydraulic performance of smectitic materials. Moreover, since the Kozeny-Carman law can take the alteration of content of pore water into consideration by not only a coefficient of viscosity but also by changes in specific surface area, the Kozeny-Carman law will be more suitable to chemical and mechanical couple analyses than the ordinary Darcy's law. For the mechanical modeling, the procedure of one dimensional exhausting compression test was developed. The tests gave the dry density and compression stress relation in the state of full-saturation of smectitic materials with varying water content. The relations between the dry density and compression stress in the state of fully saturation were termed fully saturation lines. The group of iso-grams of degree of saturation and water content were also given with this test. It was found that the fully-saturation line is consistent with swelling deformation-pressure relation in the equilibrium state. The results indicated that the swelling deformation-pressure relation does not depend on the saturation manner, such as the

  4. The IIR evaluation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borlund, Pia

    2003-01-01

    An alternative approach to evaluation of interactive information retrieval (IIR) systems, referred to as the IIR evaluation model, is proposed. The model provides a framework for the collection and analysis of IR interaction data. The aim of the model is two-fold: 1) to facilitate the evaluation ...

  5. METHODOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES AND METHODS OF TERMS OF TRADE STATISTICAL EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kovtun

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies the methodological principles and guidance of the statistical evaluation of terms of trade for the United Nations classification model – Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS. The practical implementation of the proposed three-stage model of index analysis and estimation of terms of trade for Ukraine's commodity-members for the period of 2011-2012 are realized.

  6. Evaluation and improvement of micro-surfacing mix design method and modelling of asphalt emulsion mastic in terms of filler-emulsion interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robati, Masoud

    This Doctorate program focuses on the evaluation and improving the rutting resistance of micro-surfacing mixtures. There are many research problems related to the rutting resistance of micro-surfacing mixtures that still require further research to be solved. The main objective of this Ph.D. program is to experimentally and analytically study and improve rutting resistance of micro-surfacing mixtures. During this Ph.D. program major aspects related to the rutting resistance of micro-surfacing mixtures are investigated and presented as follow: 1) evaluation of a modification of current micro-surfacing mix design procedures: On the basis of this effort, a new mix design procedure is proposed for type III micro-surfacing mixtures as rut-fill materials on the road surface. Unlike the current mix design guidelines and specification, the new mix design is capable of selecting the optimum mix proportions for micro-surfacing mixtures; 2) evaluation of test methods and selection of aggregate grading for type III application of micro-surfacing: Within the term of this study, a new specification for selection of aggregate grading for type III application of micro-surfacing is proposed; 3) evaluation of repeatability and reproducibility of micro-surfacing mixture design tests: In this study, limits for repeatability and reproducibility of micro-surfacing mix design tests are presented; 4) a new conceptual model for filler stiffening effect on asphalt mastic of micro-surfacing: A new model is proposed, which is able to establish limits for minimum and maximum filler concentrations in the micro-surfacing mixture base on only the filler important physical and chemical properties; 5) incorporation of reclaimed asphalt pavement and post-fabrication asphalt shingles in micro-surfacing mixture: The effectiveness of newly developed mix design procedure for micro-surfacing mixtures is further validated using recycled materials. The results present the limits for the use of RAP and RAS

  7. An interfacial shear term evaluation study for adiabatic dispersed air–water two-phase flow with the two-fluid model using CFD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharma, S.L., E-mail: sharma55@purdue.edu [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Hibiki, T.; Ishii, M. [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Schlegel, J.P. [Department of Mining and Nuclear Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Rolla, MO (United States); Buchanan, J.R.; Hogan, K.J. [Bettis Laboratory, Naval Nuclear Laboratory, West Mifflin, PA (United States); Guilbert, P.W. [ANSYS UK Ltd, Oxfordshire (United Kingdom)

    2017-02-15

    Highlights: • Closure form of the interfacial shear term in three-dimensional form is investigated. • Assessment against adiabatic upward bubbly air–water flow data using CFD. • Effect of addition of the interfacial shear term on the phase distribution. - Abstract: In commercially available Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes such as ANSYS CFX and Fluent, the interfacial shear term is missing in the field momentum equations. The derivation of the two-fluid model (Ishii and Hibiki, 2011) indicates the presence of this term as a momentum source in the right hand side of the field momentum equation. The inclusion of this term is considered important for proper modeling of the interfacial momentum coupling between phases. For separated flows, such as annular flow, the importance of the shear term is understood in the one-dimensional (1-D) form as the major mechanism by which the wall shear is transferred to the gas phase (Ishii and Mishima, 1984). For gas dispersed two-phase flow CFD simulations, it is important to assess the significance of this term in the prediction of phase distributions. In the first part of this work, the closure of this term in three-dimensional (3-D) form in a CFD code is investigated. For dispersed gas–liquid flow, such as bubbly or churn-turbulent flow, bubbles are dispersed in the shear layer of the continuous phase. The continuous phase shear stress is mainly due to the presence of the wall and the modeling of turbulence through the Boussinesq hypothesis. In a 3-D simulation, the continuous phase shear stress can be calculated from the continuous fluid velocity gradient, so that the interfacial shear term can be closed using the local values of the volume fraction and the total stress of liquid phase. This form also assures that the term acts as an action-reaction force for multiple phases. In the second part of this work, the effect of this term on the volume fraction distribution is investigated. For testing the model two

  8. The EMEFS model evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barchet, W.R.; Dennis, R.L.; Seilkop, S.K.; Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K.; Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.; Karamchandani, P.; Venkatram, A.; Fung, C.; Misra, P.K.; Hansen, D.A.; Chang, J.S.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs

  9. The EMEFS model evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barchet, W.R. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)); Dennis, R.L. (Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)); Seilkop, S.K. (Analytical Sciences, Inc., Durham, NC (United States)); Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K. (Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, ON (Canada)); Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  10. Evaluation of long term leaching of borosilicate glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanza, F.; Parnisari, E.

    1978-01-01

    For the evaluation of long term hazard of glass, data on long term glass leaching are needed. Moreover for long term leaching a model of homogeneous dissolution seems reasonable and ask for confirmation. Tests were performed at 30 0 , 80 0 , 100 0 , using an apparatus of the Soxhlet type, to 3.600 hours. Results were obtained as a weight loss and analysed following a relation with time composed by a parabolic and a linear part. Analysis of the surface layer using energy dispersion X ray spectrometry were performed. A critical analysis of the results and of the apparatus is presented

  11. Decision-analytic modeling to evaluate the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV-DNA testing in primary cervical cancer screening in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krämer, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Persistent infections with high-risk types of human papillomavirus (HPV are associated with the development of cervical neoplasia. Compared to cytology HPV testing is more sensitive in detecting high-grade cervical cancer precursors, but with lower specificity. HPV based primary screening for cervical cancer is currently discussed in Germany. Decisions should be based on a systematic evaluation of the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV based primary screening. Research questions: What is the long-term clinical effectiveness (reduction in lifetime risk of cervical cancer and death due to cervical cancer, life years gained of HPV testing and what is the cost-effectiveness in Euro per life year gained (LYG of including HPV testing in primary cervical cancer screening in the German health care context? How can the screening program be improved with respect to test combination, age at start and end of screening and screening interval and which recommendations should be made for the German health care context? Methods: A previously published and validated decision-analytic model for the German health care context was extended and adapted to the natural history of HPV infection and cervical cancer in order to evaluate different screening strategies that differ by screening interval, and tests, including cytology alone, HPV testing alone or in combination with cytology, and HPV testing with cytology triage for HPV-positive women. German clinical, epidemiological and economic data were used. In the absence of individual data, screening adherence was modelled independently from screening history. Test accuracy data were retrieved from international meta-analyses. Predicted outcomes included reduction in lifetime-risk for cervical cancer cases and deaths, life expectancy, lifetime costs, and discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER. The perspective of the third party payer and 3% annual discount rate were

  12. Introducing Program Evaluation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raluca GÂRBOAN

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Programs and project evaluation models can be extremely useful in project planning and management. The aim is to set the right questions as soon as possible in order to see in time and deal with the unwanted program effects, as well as to encourage the positive elements of the project impact. In short, different evaluation models are used in order to minimize losses and maximize the benefits of the interventions upon small or large social groups. This article introduces some of the most recently used evaluation models.

  13. Long-term evaluation of benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in Australia: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lew, Jie-Bin; St John, D James B; Xu, Xiang-Ming; Greuter, Marjolein J E; Caruana, Michael; Cenin, Dayna R; He, Emily; Saville, Marion; Grogan, Paul; Coupé, Veerle M H; Canfell, Karen

    2017-07-01

    No assessment of the National Bowel Screening Program (NBCSP) in Australia, which considers all downstream benefits, costs, and harms, has been done. We aimed to use a comprehensive natural history model and the most recent information about cancer treatment costs to estimate long-term benefits, costs, and harms of the NBCSP (2 yearly immunochemical faecal occult blood testing screening at age 50-74 years) and evaluate the incremental effect of improved screening participation under different scenarios. In this modelling study, a microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, which simulates the development of colorectal cancer via both the conventional adenoma-carcinoma and serrated pathways was used to simulate the NBCSP in 2006-40, taking into account the gradual rollout of NBCSP in 2006-20. The base-case scenario assumed 40% screening participation (currently observed behaviour) and two alternative scenarios assuming 50% and 60% participation by 2020 were modelled. Aggregate year-by-year screening, diagnosis, treatment and surveillance-related costs, resource utilisation (number of screening tests and colonoscopies), and health outcomes (incident colorectal cancer cases and colorectal cancer deaths) were estimated, as was the cost-effectiveness of the NBCSP. With current levels of participation (40%), the NBCSP is expected to prevent 92 200 cancer cases and 59 000 deaths over the period 2015-40; an additional 24 300 and 37 300 cases and 16 800 and 24 800 deaths would be prevented if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. In 2020, an estimated 101 000 programme-related colonoscopies will be done, associated with about 270 adverse events; an additional 32 500 and 49 800 colonoscopies and 88 and 134 adverse events would occur if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. The overall number needed to screen (NNS) is 647-788 per death prevented, with 52-59 colonoscopies per death prevented. The programme is cost

  14. Data modeling and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauge, E.; Hilaire, S.

    2006-01-01

    This lecture is devoted to the nuclear data evaluation process, during which the current knowledge (experimental or theoretical) of nuclear reactions is condensed and synthesised into a computer file (the evaluated data file) that application codes can process and use for simulation calculations. After an overview of the content of evaluated nuclear data files, we describe the different methods used for evaluating nuclear data. We specifically focus on the model based approach which we use to evaluate data in the continuum region. A few examples, coming from the day to day practice of data evaluation will illustrate this lecture. Finally, we will discuss the most likely perspectives for improvement of the evaluation process in the next decade. (author)

  15. Baby Skyrme models without a potential term

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashcroft, Jennifer; Haberichter, Mareike; Krusch, Steffen

    2015-05-01

    We develop a one-parameter family of static baby Skyrme models that do not require a potential term to admit topological solitons. This is a novel property as the standard baby Skyrme model must contain a potential term in order to have stable soliton solutions, though the Skyrme model does not require this. Our new models satisfy an energy bound that is linear in terms of the topological charge and can be saturated in an extreme limit. They also satisfy a virial theorem that is shared by the Skyrme model. We calculate the solitons of our new models numerically and observe that their form depends significantly on the choice of parameter. In one extreme, we find compactons while at the other there is a scale invariant model in which solitons can be obtained exactly as solutions to a Bogomolny equation. We provide an initial investigation into these solitons and compare them with the baby Skyrmions of other models.

  16. Training effectiveness evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penrose, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    NAESCO's Training Effectiveness Evaluation Model (TEEM) integrates existing evaluation procedures with new procedures. The new procedures are designed to measure training impact on organizational productivity. TEEM seeks to enhance organizational productivity through proactive training focused on operation results. These results can be identified and measured by establishing and tracking performance indicators. Relating training to organizational productivity is not easy. TEEM is a team process. It offers strategies to assess more effectively organizational costs and benefits of training. TEEM is one organization's attempt to refine, manage and extend its training evaluation program

  17. Examination of constitutive model for evaluating long-term mechanical behavior of buffer (II). Document prepared by other organization, based on the trust contract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Namikawa, Tsutomu; Takaji, Kazuhiko

    2003-02-01

    On the R and D of the high-level radioactive waste repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining each ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the various external forces will be affected to buffer intricately for a long period of time. So, to make clear the mechanical deformation behavior of buffer against the external force is important, because of carrying out safety assessment of EBS accurately. In this report, reversal sets of parameters are chosen for the previously selected constitutive models, Sekiguchi-Ohta model and Adachi-Oka model and the element tests are simulated using these parameters. Through the simulation, applicability of the constitutive models and these parameters is examined. Using these parameters, sensitivity analysis of prototype EBS model is also done. Analysis is carried out with two cases. 1: Settlement of the over with no corrosion expansion. 2: Settlement of the over pack with corrosion expansion. The results of the analysis area as follows. Settlement by the weight is mainly affected by the viscous parameters. The whole destruction of the EBS does not occur with any set of applicable parameters. Viscous parameters are important to evaluate the effect of the over pack expansion on surrounding rocks. (author)

  18. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  19. Developmental Education Evaluation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry-Miller, Mitzi; And Others

    A developmental education evaluation model designed to be used at a multi-unit urban community college is described. The purpose of the design was to determine the cost effectiveness/worth of programs in order to initiate self-improvement. A needs assessment was conducted by interviewing and taping the responses of students, faculty, staff, and…

  20. CMAQ Model Evaluation Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    CMAQ is tested to establish the modeling system’s credibility in predicting pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. Evaluation of CMAQ has been designed to assess the model’s performance for specific time periods and for specific uses.

  1. A Biofilm Pocket Model to Evaluate Different Non-Surgical Periodontal Treatment Modalities in Terms of Biofilm Removal and Reformation, Surface Alterations and Attachment of Periodontal Ligament Fibroblasts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias T Hägi

    Full Text Available There is a lack of suitable in vitro models to evaluate various treatment modalities intending to remove subgingival bacterial biofilm. Consequently, the aims of this in vitro-study were: a to establish a pocket model enabling mechanical removal of biofilm and b to evaluate repeated non-surgical periodontal treatment with respect to biofilm removal and reformation, surface alterations, tooth hard-substance-loss, and attachment of periodontal ligament (PDL fibroblasts.Standardized human dentin specimens were colonized by multi-species biofilms for 3.5 days and subsequently placed into artificially created pockets. Non-surgical periodontal treatment was performed as follows: a hand-instrumentation with curettes (CUR, b ultrasonication (US, c subgingival air-polishing using erythritol (EAP and d subgingival air-polishing using erythritol combined with chlorhexidine digluconate (EAP-CHX. The reduction and recolonization of bacterial counts, surface roughness (Ra and Rz, the caused tooth substance-loss (thickness as well as the attachment of PDL fibroblasts were evaluated and statistically analyzed by means of ANOVA with Post-Hoc LSD.After 5 treatments, bacterial reduction in biofilms was highest when applying EAP-CHX (4 log10. The lowest reduction was found after CUR (2 log10. Additionally, substance-loss was the highest when using CUR (128±40 µm in comparison with US (14±12 µm, EAP (6±7 µm and EAP-CHX (11±10 µm. Surface was roughened when using CUR and US. Surfaces exposed to US and to EAP attracted the highest numbers of PDL fibroblasts.The established biofilm model simulating a periodontal pocket combined with interchangeable placements of test specimens with multi-species biofilms enables the evaluation of different non-surgical treatment modalities on biofilm removal and surface alterations. Compared to hand instrumentation the application of ultrasonication and of air-polishing with erythritol prevents from substance-loss and results

  2. Health economic modelling to assess short-term costs of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes and related macrosomia – a pilot evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene eLenoir-Wijnkoop

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite the interest in the impact of overweight and obesity on public health, little is known about the social and economic impact of being born large for gestational age or macrosomic. Both conditions are related to maternal obesity and/or gestational diabetes (GDM and associated with increased morbidity for mother and child in the perinatal period. Poorly controlled diabetes during pregnancy, pre- pregnancy maternal obesity and/or excessive maternal weight gain during pregnancy are associated with intermittent periods of fetal exposure to hyperglycemia and subsequent hyperinsulinemia, leading to increased birth weight (e.g. macrosomia, body adiposity and glycogen storage in the liver. Macrosomia is associated with an increased risk of developing obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus later in life.Objective: Provide insight in the short-term health-economic impact of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes (GDM and related macrosomia. To this end, a health economic framework was designed. This pilot study also aims to encourage further health technology assessments, based on country- and population-specific data. Results: The estimation of the direct health-economic burden of maternal overweight, GDM and related macrosomia indicates that associated healthcare expenditures are substantial. The calculation of a budget impact of GDM, based on a conservative approach of our model, using USA costing data, indicates an annual cost of more than $1,8 billion without taking into account long-term consequences.Conclusion: Although overweight and obesity are a recognized concern worldwide, less attention has been given to the health economic consequences of these conditions in women of child-bearing age and their offspring. The presented outcomes underline the need for preventive management strategies and public health interventions on life style, diet and physical activity. Also, the predisposition in people of Asian ethnicity to develop

  3. Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2009-01-01

    The conditional indirect utility of many random utility maximization (RUM) discrete choice models is specified as a sum of an index V depending on observables and an independent random term ε. In general, the universe of RUM consistent models is much larger, even fixing some specification of V due...

  4. Quadratic Term Structure Models in Discrete Time

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Realdon

    2006-01-01

    This paper extends the results on quadratic term structure models in continuos time to the discrete time setting. The continuos time setting can be seen as a special case of the discrete time one. Recursive closed form solutions for zero coupon bonds are provided even in the presence of multiple correlated underlying factors. Pricing bond options requires simple integration. Model parameters may well be time dependent without scuppering such tractability. Model estimation does not require a r...

  5. Pragmatic geometric model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamer, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Quantification of subsurface model reliability is mathematically and technically demanding as there are many different sources of uncertainty and some of the factors can be assessed merely in a subjective way. For many practical applications in industry or risk assessment (e. g. geothermal drilling) a quantitative estimation of possible geometric variations in depth unit is preferred over relative numbers because of cost calculations for different scenarios. The talk gives an overview of several factors that affect the geometry of structural subsurface models that are based upon typical geological survey organization (GSO) data like geological maps, borehole data and conceptually driven construction of subsurface elements (e. g. fault network). Within the context of the trans-European project "GeoMol" uncertainty analysis has to be very pragmatic also because of different data rights, data policies and modelling software between the project partners. In a case study a two-step evaluation methodology for geometric subsurface model uncertainty is being developed. In a first step several models of the same volume of interest have been calculated by omitting successively more and more input data types (seismic constraints, fault network, outcrop data). The positions of the various horizon surfaces are then compared. The procedure is equivalent to comparing data of various levels of detail and therefore structural complexity. This gives a measure of the structural significance of each data set in space and as a consequence areas of geometric complexity are identified. These areas are usually very data sensitive hence geometric variability in between individual data points in these areas is higher than in areas of low structural complexity. Instead of calculating a multitude of different models by varying some input data or parameters as it is done by Monte-Carlo-simulations, the aim of the second step of the evaluation procedure (which is part of the ongoing work) is to

  6. STACE: Source Term Analyses for Containment Evaluations of transport casks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seager, K.D.; Gianoulakis, S.E.; Barrett, P.R.; Rashid, Y.R.; Reardon, P.C.

    1992-01-01

    Following the guidance of ANSI N14.5, the STACE methodology provides a technically defensible means for estimating maximum permissible leakage rates. These containment criteria attempt to reflect the true radiological hazard by performing a detailed examination of the spent fuel, CRUD, and residual contamination contributions to the releasable source term. The evaluation of the spent fuel contribution to the source term has been modeled fairly accurately using the STACE methodology. The structural model predicts the cask drop load history, the mechanical response of the fuel assembly, and the probability of cladding breach. These data are then used to predict the amount of fission gas, volatile species, and fuel fines that are releasable from the cask. There are some areas where data are sparse or lacking (e.g., the quantity and size distribution of fuel rod breaches) in which experimental validation is planned. The CRUD spallation fraction is the major area where no quantitative data has been found; therefore, this also requires experimental validation. In the interim, STACE conservatively assumes a 100% spallation fraction for computing the releasable activity. The source term methodology also conservatively assumes that there is 1 Ci of residual contamination available for release in the transport cask. However, residual contamination is still by far the smallest contributor to the source term activity

  7. Murine model of long term obstructive jaundice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A.; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

    2016-01-01

    Background With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of 3 murine models of obstructive jaundice. Methods C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Results 70% (7/10) of tCL mice died by Day 7, whereas majority 67% (10/15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. 19% (3/16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond Day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 days after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by Day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension as well as severe fibrosis by Day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. Conclusion The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice but long term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. PMID:27916350

  8. Immunohistochemical evaluation of iron accumulation in term ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Classical immunohistochemical studies on placenta have shown that there is a linear increase in iron storage in the placenta in the first half of a normal pregnancy, however, these stocks are decreased in normal 3rd trimester placenta. Iron accumulation in term placentas of preeclamptic and normal pregnancies were ...

  9. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  10. Evaluation of magnetic dipolar terms in molecules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muniz, R.B.; Brandi, H.S.; Maffeo, B.

    1977-01-01

    The magnetic dipolar parameter b for several values of the internuclear distance in the molecule F 2 - is evaluated. The difficulties appearing in the calculations are discussed and a manner to overcome them is presented [pt

  11. Experimental Evaluation of Early and Long-Term Effects of Microparticle Embolization in Two Different Mini-Pig Models. Part I: Kidney

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stampfl, S.; Stampfl, U.; Rehnitz, C.; Schnabel, Ph.; Satzl, S.; Christoph, P.; Henn, C.; Thomas, F.; Kauffmann, G. W.; Richter, G. M.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose. Using a pig model: (1) to evaluate the vascular distribution pattern, including the homogeneity and completeness of the intra-arterial microsphere distribution, of 40-120-μm trisacryl-gelatin microspheres (Embospheres) in acute whole-kidney embolization; (2) to evaluate the durability and biocompatibility of 40-120-μm trisacryl-gelatin microspheres (Embospheres) in chronic partial kidney embolization. Methods. Twenty-two animals were divided into four groups: group 1 (n = 4) underwent total arterial renal occlusion with immediate euthanasia. Groups 2-4 had chronic superselective and partial renal embolization with increasing follow-up times: group 2 (n = 2), 1 week; group 3 (n = 7), 4 weeks; and group 4 (n = 9), 14 weeks. Key endpoints in group 1 were homogeneity and completeness of acute embolizations. In groups 2-4 the key endpoints were durability of embolization and particle-related inflammation in chronic partial embolizations as assessed by quantitative angiography or histomorphometry. A numerical angiographic occlusion score (0.0 to 4.0, where 3.0 is optimal) was developed to assess and quantify the angiographic durability of superselective embolizations (groups 2-4). Results. In group 1, a relatively homogeneous distribution of the particles from segmental arteries to the precapillary level was shown by histomorphometry. Some particles reached the glomerular vas afferens (10 μm diameter). In groups 2-4, a mild recanalization appeared during follow-up. The immediate average postembolization occlusion score of 3.18 ± 0.73 was reduced to 1.44 ± 0.73 (statistically significant). Microscopy revealed subtotal necrosis but no foreign body granuloma formation. The intra-arterial appearance of giant cells closely attaching to the surface of the embolic spheres inside the vessel lumen was noted. Vessel walls showed major ischemic reactions. Conclusion. Microspheres 40-120 μm in diameter might achieve total occlusion of the arterial kidney vasculature

  12. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook

  13. Evaluating topic models with stability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, A

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Topic models are unsupervised techniques that extract likely topics from text corpora, by creating probabilistic word-topic and topic-document associations. Evaluation of topic models is a challenge because (a) topic models are often employed...

  14. Long-term evaluation of benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in Australia: A modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lew, J.-B. (Jie-Bin); St John, D.J.B. (D James B); X.-M. Xu (Xiang-Ming); M.J.W. Greuter (Marcel); Caruana, M. (Michael); D.R. Cenin (Dayna R.); He, E. (Emily); Saville, M. (Marion); Grogan, P. (Paul); V.M.H. Coupé (Veerle); K. Canfell (Karen)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractBackground: No assessment of the National Bowel Screening Program (NBCSP) in Australia, which considers all downstream benefits, costs, and harms, has been done. We aimed to use a comprehensive natural history model and the most recent information about cancer treatment costs to estimate

  15. Evaluation of long-term antinociceptive properties of stabilized hyaluronic acid preparation (NASHA) in an animal model of repetitive joint pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Introduction Clinical trials provided controversial results on whether the injection of hyaluronan preparations into osteoarthritic joints reduces pain. Problems of clinical studies may be the substantial placebo effects of intra-articular injections, different severity and rate of progression of the disease and others. We hypothesize that the use of preclinical pain models may help to clarify whether a certain hyaluronan exerts antinociceptive effects upon intra-articular injection. In the present study we tested in the bradykinin/prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) model primarily the putative antinociceptive effect of stabilized hyaluronic acid from a non animal source (NASHA), a stabilized hyaluronic acid based gel for intra-articular treatment of OA. We established a dose-response relationship for NASHA and we compared NASHA to other hyaluronans with different formulations that are in clinical use. Methods To induce transient joint pain episodes bradykinin and PGE2 were repetitively administered intra-articularly and unilaterally into rat knee joints during short anaesthesia. After establishment of the predrug nociceptive responses, a single intra-articular injection of saline or NASHA at different concentrations was administered and pain responses to further bradykinin/PGE2 injections were monitored up to 56 days after NASHA. Furthermore, the obtained effective dose was compared to clinically defined concentrations of Hylan GF20 and sodium hyaluronate. The primary outcome measures were primary mechanical hyperalgesia at the knee joint and pain-induced weight bearing. Results On day 1 after injection, all tested hyaluronan preparations showed an antinociceptive effect >50% compared to saline. Single injections of higher doses of NASHA (50, 75 and 100 μl) were antinociceptive up to 56 days. When injection volumes in rat knee joints were adapted to clinical injection volumes in humans, the antinociceptive effects of the cross-linked NASHA and Hylan GF20 had a longer

  16. Short term load forecasting: two stage modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SOARES, L. J.

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the Seattle, USA, called Puget Sound Power and Light Company. Our proposal is put into proof with the famous dataset from this company. We propose a stochastic model which employs ANN (Artificial Neural Networks to model short-run dynamics and the dependence among adjacent hours. The model proposed treats each hour's load separately as individual single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is evaluated in similiar mode a TLSAR (Two-Level Seasonal Autoregressive model proposed by Soares (2003 using the years of 1995 and 1996 as the holdout sample. Moreover, we conclude that non linearity is present in some series of these data. The model results are analyzed. The experiment shows that our tool can be used to produce load forecasting in tropical climate places.

  17. Experimental Evaluation of Early and Long-Term Effects of Microparticle Embolization in Two Different Mini-Pig Models. Part II: Liver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stampfl, S.; Stampfl, U.; Rehnitz, C.; Schnabel, Ph.; Satzl, S.; Christoph, P.; Henn, C.; Thomas, F.; Richter, G. M.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose. To evaluate trisacryl-gelatin microspheres (40-120 μm) for acute and chronic tissue embolization in mini-pig livers. Methods. Thirteen animals were divided into four groups: group 1 (n = 3), total arterial bed occlusion with acute procedure; groups 2 to 4, chronic superselective embolization with follow-up of 1 week (group 2, n = 1), 4 weeks (group 3, n 4) or 14 weeks (group 4, n = 5). Key endpoints were homogeneity and particle distribution in acute embolizations (group 1) and necrosis and inflammation in chronic embolizations (groups 2-4) as assessed microscopically and angiographically. Results. After liver embolization, parenchymal necrosis did not occur; only signs of vessel wall disintegration were evident. The bile ducts remained intact. A distinct foreign body reaction with sparse leukocytic infiltration and giant cells was found at 14 weeks, but no signs of major inflammation were found. Particles were seen at the presinusoidal level, but no particle transportation into the sinusoids was observed. Conclusions. Embolization in mini-pig livers, using small trisacryl-gelatin microspheres, results in vessel fibrosis without parenchymal or bile duct necrosis. The most likely explanation for preservation of the parenchyma is portal inflow. Small trisacryl-gelatin microspheres may be ideal as an adjunct for chemoembolization

  18. Evaluation of the Effects of Temporary Covered Nitinol Stent Placement in the Prostatic Urethra: Short-Term Study in the Canine Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crisostomo, Veronica; Song, Ho Young; Maynar, Manuel; Sun, Fei; Soria, Federico; Lima, Juan Rafael; Yoon, Chang Jin; Uson-Gargallo, Jesus

    2007-01-01

    Purpose. To evaluate the effect of temporary stent placement on the canine prostatic urethra. Methods. Retrievable PTFE-covered nitinol stents were placed in the prostatic urethras of 8 beagle dogs under fluoroscopic guidance. Retrograde urethrography was obtained before and after stenting. Retrograde urethrography and endoscopy were performed 1 and 2 months after deployment. The endoscopic degree of hyperplasia was rated on a scale of 0 to 4 (0 absence, 4 = occlusion). On day 60, stents were removed and urethrography was performed immediately before euthanasia. Pathologic analysis was performed to determine the degree of glandular atrophy, periurethral fibrosis, and urethral dilation. Results. Stent deployment was technically successful in 7 animals, and failed in 1 dog due to a narrow urethral lumen. Complete migration was seen in 2 animals at 1 month, and an additional stent was deployed. On day 30, endoscopy showed slight hyperplasia (grade 1) in 3 animals. On day 60, moderate hyperplasia (grade 2) was evidenced in 4 cases. No impairment of urinary flow was seen during follow-up. Retrieval was technically easy to perform, and was successful in all dogs. The major histologic findings were chronic inflammatory cell infiltrates; prostate glandular atrophy, with a mean value of 1.86 (SD 0.90); periurethral fibrosis, with a mean ratio of 29.37 (SD 10.41); and dilatation of the prostatic urethra, with a mean ratio of 6.75 (SD 3.22). Conclusion. Temporary prostatic stent placement in dogs is safe and feasible, causing marked enlargement of the prostatic urethral lumen. Retrievable covered stents may therefore be an option for bladder outlet obstruction management in men

  19. Development of source term evaluation method for Korean Next Generation Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Keon Jae; Cheong, Jae Hak; Park, Jin Baek; Kim, Guk Gee [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-10-15

    This project had investigate several design features of radioactive waste processing system and method to predict nuclide concentration at primary coolant basic concept of next generation reactor and safety goals at the former phase. In this project several prediction methods of source term are evaluated conglomerately and detailed contents of this project are : model evaluation of nuclide concentration at Reactor Coolant System, evaluation of primary and secondary coolant concentration of reference Nuclear Power Plant(NPP), investigation of prediction parameter of source term evaluation, basic parameter of PWR, operational parameter, respectively, radionuclide removal system and adjustment values of reference NPP, suggestion of source term prediction method of next generation NPP.

  20. Development of source term evaluation method for Korean Next Generation Reactor(III)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Geon Jae; Park, Jin Baek; Lee, Yeong Il; Song, Min Cheonl; Lee, Ho Jin [Korea Advanced Institue of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-06-15

    This project had investigated irradiation characteristics of MOX fuel method to predict nuclide concentration at primary and secondary coolant using a core containing 100% of all MOX fuel and development of source term evaluation tool. In this study, several prediction methods of source term are evaluated. Detailed contents of this project are : an evaluation of model for nuclear concentration at Reactor Coolant System, evaluation of primary and secondary coolant concentration of reference Nuclear Power Plant using purely MOX fuel, suggestion of source term prediction method of NPP with a core using MOX fuel.

  1. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  2. Empirically evaluating decision-analytic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Stout, Natasha K; Goldie, Sue J

    2010-08-01

    Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses support decision-making. To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. We developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, we applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN]) to cancer. Outcomes included 5 to 30-year cumulative cancer risk among women with and without appropriate CIN treatment. Consistency was measured by model ranges overlapping study confidence intervals. The structured reporting format included: matching baseline characteristics and follow-up, reporting model and study uncertainty, and stating metrics of consistency for model and study results. Structured searches yielded 2963 articles with 67 meeting inclusion criteria and found variation in how current model evaluations are reported. Evaluation of the cervical cancer microsimulation, reported using the proposed format, showed a modeled cumulative risk of invasive cancer for inadequately treated women of 39.6% (30.9-49.7) at 30 years, compared with the study: 37.5% (28.4-48.3). For appropriately treated women, modeled risks were 1.0% (0.7-1.3) at 30 years, study: 1.5% (0.4-3.3). To support external and projective validity, cost-effectiveness models should be iteratively evaluated as new studies become available, with reporting standardized to facilitate assessment. Such evaluations are particularly relevant for models used to conduct comparative effectiveness analyses.

  3. Nuclear models relevant to evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Chadwick, M.B.; Hale, G.M.; Young, P.G.

    1991-01-01

    The widespread use of nuclear models continues in the creation of data evaluations. The reasons include extension of data evaluations to higher energies, creation of data libraries for isotopic components of natural materials, and production of evaluations for radiative target species. In these cases, experimental data are often sparse or nonexistent. As this trend continues, the nuclear models employed in evaluation work move towards more microscopically-based theoretical methods, prompted in part by the availability of increasingly powerful computational resources. Advances in nuclear models applicable to evaluation will be reviewed. These include advances in optical model theory, microscopic and phenomenological state and level density theory, unified models that consistently describe both equilibrium and nonequilibrium reaction mechanism, and improved methodologies for calculation of prompt radiation from fission. 84 refs., 8 figs

  4. Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syazreen Shair

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee–Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-specific mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-specific data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations’ mortality.

  5. Evaluation of Short Term Memory Span Function In Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barış ERGÜL

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Although details of the information encoded in the short-term memory where it is stored temporarily be recorded in the working memory in the next stage. Repeating the information mentally makes it remain in memory for a long time. Studies investigating the relationship between short-term memory and reading skills that are carried out to examine the relationship between short-term memory processes and reading comprehension. In this study information coming to short-term memory and the factors affecting operation of short term memory are investigated with regression model. The aim of the research is to examine the factors (age, IQ and reading skills that are expected the have an effect on short-term memory in children through regression analysis. One of the assumptions of regression analysis is to examine which has constant variance and normal distribution of the error term. In this study, because the error term is not normally distributed, robust regression techniques were applied. Also, for each technique; coefficient of determination is determined. According to the findings, the increase in age, IQ and reading skills caused the increase in short term memory in children. After applying robust regression techniques, the Winsorized Least Squares (WLS technique gives the highest coefficient of determination.

  6. Model for low temperature oxidation during long term interim storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desgranges, Clara; Bertrand, Nathalie; Gauvain, Danielle; Terlain, Anne [Service de la Corrosion et du Comportement des Materiaux dans leur Environnement, CEA/Saclay - 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Poquillon, Dominique; Monceau, Daniel [CIRIMAT UMR 5085, ENSIACET-INPT, 31077 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France)

    2004-07-01

    For high-level nuclear waste containers in long-term interim storage, dry oxidation will be the first and the main degradation mode during about one century. The metal lost by dry oxidation over such a long period must be evaluated with a good reliability. To achieve this goal, modelling of the oxide scale growth is necessary and this is the aim of the dry oxidation studies performed in the frame of the COCON program. An advanced model based on the description of elementary mechanisms involved in scale growth at low temperatures, like partial interfacial control of the oxidation kinetics and/or grain boundary diffusion, is developed in order to increase the reliability of the long term extrapolations deduced from basic models developed from short time experiments. Since only few experimental data on dry oxidation are available in the temperature range of interest, experiments have also been performed to evaluate the relevant input parameters for models like grain size of oxide scale, considering iron as simplified material. (authors)

  7. Model for low temperature oxidation during long term interim storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desgranges, Clara; Bertrand, Nathalie; Gauvain, Danielle; Terlain, Anne; Poquillon, Dominique; Monceau, Daniel

    2004-01-01

    For high-level nuclear waste containers in long-term interim storage, dry oxidation will be the first and the main degradation mode during about one century. The metal lost by dry oxidation over such a long period must be evaluated with a good reliability. To achieve this goal, modelling of the oxide scale growth is necessary and this is the aim of the dry oxidation studies performed in the frame of the COCON program. An advanced model based on the description of elementary mechanisms involved in scale growth at low temperatures, like partial interfacial control of the oxidation kinetics and/or grain boundary diffusion, is developed in order to increase the reliability of the long term extrapolations deduced from basic models developed from short time experiments. Since only few experimental data on dry oxidation are available in the temperature range of interest, experiments have also been performed to evaluate the relevant input parameters for models like grain size of oxide scale, considering iron as simplified material. (authors)

  8. Rock mechanics models evaluation report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-08-01

    This report documents the evaluation of the thermal and thermomechanical models and codes for repository subsurface design and for design constraint analysis. The evaluation was based on a survey of the thermal and thermomechanical codes and models that are applicable to subsurface design, followed by a Kepner-Tregoe (KT) structured decision analysis of the codes and models. The primary recommendations of the analysis are that the DOT code be used for two-dimensional thermal analysis and that the STEALTH and HEATING 5/6 codes be used for three-dimensional and complicated two-dimensional thermal analysis. STEALTH and SPECTROM 32 are recommended for thermomechanical analyses. The other evaluated codes should be considered for use in certain applications. A separate review of salt creep models indicate that the commonly used exponential time law model is appropriate for use in repository design studies. 38 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs

  9. The EU model evaluation group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1999-01-01

    The model evaluation group (MEG) was launched in 1992 growing out of the Major Technological Hazards Programme with EU/DG XII. The goal of MEG was to improve the culture in which models were developed, particularly by encouraging voluntary model evaluation procedures based on a formalised and consensus protocol. The evaluation intended to assess the fitness-for-purpose of the models being used as a measure of the quality. The approach adopted was focused on developing a generic model evaluation protocol and subsequent targeting this onto specific areas of application. Five such developments have been initiated, on heavy gas dispersion, liquid pool fires, gas explosions, human factors and momentum fires. The quality of models is an important element when complying with the 'Seveso Directive' requiring that the safety reports submitted to the authorities comprise an assessment of the extent and severity of the consequences of identified major accidents. Further, the quality of models become important in the land use planning process, where the proximity of industrial sites to vulnerable areas may be critical. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  10. Mobility Models for Systems Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musolesi, Mirco; Mascolo, Cecilia

    Mobility models are used to simulate and evaluate the performance of mobile wireless systems and the algorithms and protocols at the basis of them. The definition of realistic mobility models is one of the most critical and, at the same time, difficult aspects of the simulation of applications and systems designed for mobile environments. There are essentially two possible types of mobility patterns that can be used to evaluate mobile network protocols and algorithms by means of simulations: traces and synthetic models [130]. Traces are obtained by means of measurements of deployed systems and usually consist of logs of connectivity or location information, whereas synthetic models are mathematical models, such as sets of equations, which try to capture the movement of the devices.

  11. Behavioural Models of Motor Control and Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Imanaka, Kuniyasu; Funase, Kozo; Yamauchi, Masaki

    1995-01-01

    We examined in this review article the behavioural and conceptual models of motor control and short-term memory which have intensively been investigated since the 1970s. First, we reviewed both the dual-storage model of short-term memory in which movement information is stored and a typical model of motor control which emphasizes the importance of efferent factors. We then examined two models of preselection effects: a cognitive model and a cognitive/ efferent model. Following this we reviewe...

  12. Mid-term evaluation of ten National Research schools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gustafsson, Göran; Dahl, Hanne Marlene; Gustafsson, Christina

    the scheme was launched, the Research Council has issued three calls for proposals and allocated grants to a total of 22 national research schools. Five were started up in 2009, ten in 2013 and seven in 2015. A Nordic scientific programme committee was appointed in 2013, with responsibility for assessing...... grant applications, monitoring the progress of the FORSKERSKOLER scheme and serving as the evaluation panel for the mid-term evaluation in 2013 and in 2016/2017. The task of the evaluation panel has been to: 1) evaluate the quality of and progress achieved by the ten research schools which were awarded...... funding in 2012 and launched in 2013; and 2) to provide recommendations as to whether funding should be continued to cover the full eight-year period or terminated after five years. Continued funding is recommended for all ten schools to cover the full eight-year period, according to the proposed budget...

  13. Source Term Model for Fine Particle Resuspension from Indoor Surfaces

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kim, Yoojeong; Gidwani, Ashok; Sippola, Mark; Sohn, Chang W

    2008-01-01

    This Phase I effort developed a source term model for particle resuspension from indoor surfaces to be used as a source term boundary condition for CFD simulation of particle transport and dispersion in a building...

  14. Realistic minimum accident source terms - Evaluation, application, and risk acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelo, P. L.

    2009-01-01

    The evaluation, application, and risk acceptance for realistic minimum accident source terms can represent a complex and arduous undertaking. This effort poses a very high impact to design, construction cost, operations and maintenance, and integrated safety over the expected facility lifetime. At the 2005 Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) Meeting in Knoxville Tenn., two papers were presented mat summarized the Y-12 effort that reduced the number of criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) detectors originally designed for the new Highly Enriched Uranium Materials Facility (HEUMF) from 258 to an eventual as-built number of 60. Part of that effort relied on determining a realistic minimum accident source term specific to the facility. Since that time, the rationale for an alternate minimum accident has been strengthened by an evaluation process that incorporates realism. A recent update to the HEUMF CAAS technical basis highlights the concepts presented here. (authors)

  15. Backcasting long-term climate data: evaluation of hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saghafian, Bahram; Aghbalaghi, Sara Ghasemi; Nasseri, Mohsen

    2018-05-01

    Most often than not, incomplete datasets or short-term recorded data in vast regions impedes reliable climate and water studies. Various methods, such as simple correlation with stations having long-term time series, are practiced to infill or extend the period of observation at stations with missing or short-term data. In the current paper and for the first time, the hypothesis on the feasibility of extending the downscaling concept to backcast local observation records using large-scale atmospheric predictors is examined. Backcasting is coined here to contrast forecasting/projection; the former is implied to reconstruct in the past, while the latter represents projection in the future. To assess our hypotheses, daily and monthly statistical downscaling models were employed to reconstruct past precipitation data and lengthen the data period. Urmia and Tabriz synoptic stations, located in northwestern Iran, constituted two case study stations. SDSM and data-mining downscaling model (DMDM) daily as well as the group method of data handling (GMDH) and model tree (Mp5) monthly downscaling models were trained with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data. After training, reconstructed precipitation data of the past was validated against observed data. Then, the data was fully extended to the 1948 to 2009 period corresponding to available NCEP data period. The results showed that DMDM performed superior in generation of monthly average precipitation compared with the SDSM, Mp5, and GMDH models, although none of the models could preserve the monthly variance. This overall confirms practical value of the proposed approach in extension of the past historic data, particularly for long-term climatological and water budget studies.

  16. Evaluation of short-term and long-term stability of emulsions by centrifugation and NMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tcholakova, S.; Denkov, N.; Ivanov, I.; Marinov, R.

    2004-01-01

    The effect of storage time on the coalescence stability and drop size distribution of egg yolk and whey protein concentrate stabilized emulsions is studied. The emulsion stability is evaluated by centrifugation, whereas the drop size distribution is measured by means of NMR and optical microscopy. The experimental results show that there is no general relation between the emulsion stability and the changes in the mean drop diameter upon shelf-storage of protein emulsions. On the other hand, it is shown that the higher short-term stability, measured by centrifugation immediately after emulsion preparation, corresponds to higher long-term stability (after their self-storage up to 60 days) for emulsions stabilized by the same type of emulsifier. In this way, we are able to obtain information for the long-term stability of emulsions in a relatively short period of time.(authors)

  17. A retrospective evaluation of term infants treated with surfactant therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özge Sürmeli-Onay

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To investigate the clinical and therapeutic characteristics and outcomes of term infants who received surfactant therapy (ST for severe respiratory failure in our neonatal intensive care unit (NICU. Methods: The medical records of term infants (gestational age ≥ 370/7 weeks who received ST between 2003-2012 in NICU of Hacettepe University Ihsan Dogramaci Children’s Hospital were evaluated retrospectively. Results: During ten years period, 32 term infants received ST; the mean gestational age was 38.1 ± 0.88 wk and the mean birth weight was 2,936 ± 665 g. The underlying lung diseases were severe congenital pneumonia (CP in 13 (40.6%, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS in 5 (15.6%, meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS in 5 (15.6%, congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH in 4 (12.5%, respiratory distress syndrome in 3 (9.4% and pulmonary hemorrhage in 2 (6.3% infants. The median time of the first dose of ST was 7.75 (0.5-216 hours. Pulmonary hypertension accompanied the primary lung disease in 9 (28.1% infants. Mortality rate was 25%. Conclusion: In term infants, CP, ARDS and MAS were the main causes of respiratory failure requiring ST. However, further prospective studies are needed for defining optimal strategies of ST in term infants with respiratory failure.

  18. Low-level radioactive waste performance assessments: Source term modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Icenhour, A.S.; Godbee, H.W.; Miller, L.F.

    1995-01-01

    Low-level radioactive wastes (LLW) generated by government and commercial operations need to be isolated from the environment for at least 300 to 500 yr. Most existing sites for the storage or disposal of LLW employ the shallow-land burial approach. However, the U.S. Department of Energy currently emphasizes the use of engineered systems (e.g., packaging, concrete and metal barriers, and water collection systems). Future commercial LLW disposal sites may include such systems to mitigate radionuclide transport through the biosphere. Performance assessments must be conducted for LUW disposal facilities. These studies include comprehensive evaluations of radionuclide migration from the waste package, through the vadose zone, and within the water table. Atmospheric transport mechanisms are also studied. Figure I illustrates the performance assessment process. Estimates of the release of radionuclides from the waste packages (i.e., source terms) are used for subsequent hydrogeologic calculations required by a performance assessment. Computer models are typically used to describe the complex interactions of water with LLW and to determine the transport of radionuclides. Several commonly used computer programs for evaluating source terms include GWSCREEN, BLT (Breach-Leach-Transport), DUST (Disposal Unit Source Term), BARRIER (Ref. 5), as well as SOURCE1 and SOURCE2 (which are used in this study). The SOURCE1 and SOURCE2 codes were prepared by Rogers and Associates Engineering Corporation for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SOURCE1 is designed for tumulus-type facilities, and SOURCE2 is tailored for silo, well-in-silo, and trench-type disposal facilities. This paper focuses on the source term for ORNL disposal facilities, and it describes improved computational methods for determining radionuclide transport from waste packages

  19. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

  20. Mark I containment, short term program. Safety evaluation report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-12-01

    Presented is a Safety Evaluation Report (SER) prepared by the Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation addressing the Short Term Program (STP) reassessment of the containment systems of operating Boiler Water Reactor (BWR) facilities with the Mark I containment system design. The information presented in this SER establishes the basis for the NRC staff's conclusion that licensed Mark I BWR facilities can continue to operate safely, without undue risk to the health and safety of the public, during an interim period of approximately two years while a methodical, comprehensive Long Term Program (LTP) is conducted. This SER also provides one of the basic foundations for the NRC staff review of the Mark I containment systems for facilities not yet licensed for operation

  1. Investigation of Teachers' Perceptions of Organizational Citizenship Behavior and Their Evaluation in Terms of Educational Administration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avci, Ahmet

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate teachers' perceptions of organizational citizenship behaviors and to evaluate them in terms of educational administration. Descriptive survey model was used in the research. The data of the research were obtained from 1,613 teachers working in public and private schools subjected to Ministry of National…

  2. A viable D-term hybrid inflation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadota, Kenji; Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Sumita, Keigo

    2017-11-01

    We propose a new model of the D-term hybrid inflation in the framework of supergravity. Although our model introduces, analogously to the conventional D-term inflation, the inflaton and a pair of scalar fields charged under a U(1) gauge symmetry, we study the logarithmic and exponential dependence on the inflaton field, respectively, for the Kähler and superpotential. This results in a characteristic one-loop scalar potential consisting of linear and exponential terms, which realizes the small-field inflation dominated by the Fayet-Iliopoulos term. With the reasonable values for the coupling coefficients and, in particular, with the U(1) gauge coupling constant comparable to that of the Standard Model, our D-term inflation model can solve the notorious problems in the conventional D-term inflation, namely, the CMB constraints on the spectral index and the generation of cosmic strings.

  3. Merons in a generally covariant model with Gursey term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akdeniz, K.G.; Smailagic, A.

    1982-10-01

    We study meron solutions of the generally covariant and Weyl invariant fermionic model with Gursey term. We find that, due to the presence of this term, merons can exist even without the cosmological constant. This is a new feature compared to previously studied models. (author)

  4. Evaluation of long term radiological impact on population close to remediated uranium mill tailings storages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerouanton, David; Delgove, Laure

    2008-01-01

    A methodology is elaborated in order to evaluate the long term radiological impact of remediated uranium mill tailings storage. Different scenarios are chosen and modelled to cover future evolution of the tailings storages. Radiological impact is evaluated for different population such as adults and children living in the immediate vicinity or directly on the storage, road workers or walkers on the storage. Equation and methods are detailed. (author)

  5. Performance Evaluation Model for Application Layer Firewalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuan, Shichang; Yang, Wu; Dong, Hui; Zhang, Jiangchuan

    2016-01-01

    Application layer firewalls protect the trusted area network against information security risks. However, firewall performance may affect user experience. Therefore, performance analysis plays a significant role in the evaluation of application layer firewalls. This paper presents an analytic model of the application layer firewall, based on a system analysis to evaluate the capability of the firewall. In order to enable users to improve the performance of the application layer firewall with limited resources, resource allocation was evaluated to obtain the optimal resource allocation scheme in terms of throughput, delay, and packet loss rate. The proposed model employs the Erlangian queuing model to analyze the performance parameters of the system with regard to the three layers (network, transport, and application layers). Then, the analysis results of all the layers are combined to obtain the overall system performance indicators. A discrete event simulation method was used to evaluate the proposed model. Finally, limited service desk resources were allocated to obtain the values of the performance indicators under different resource allocation scenarios in order to determine the optimal allocation scheme. Under limited resource allocation, this scheme enables users to maximize the performance of the application layer firewall.

  6. Performance Evaluation Model for Application Layer Firewalls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shichang Xuan

    Full Text Available Application layer firewalls protect the trusted area network against information security risks. However, firewall performance may affect user experience. Therefore, performance analysis plays a significant role in the evaluation of application layer firewalls. This paper presents an analytic model of the application layer firewall, based on a system analysis to evaluate the capability of the firewall. In order to enable users to improve the performance of the application layer firewall with limited resources, resource allocation was evaluated to obtain the optimal resource allocation scheme in terms of throughput, delay, and packet loss rate. The proposed model employs the Erlangian queuing model to analyze the performance parameters of the system with regard to the three layers (network, transport, and application layers. Then, the analysis results of all the layers are combined to obtain the overall system performance indicators. A discrete event simulation method was used to evaluate the proposed model. Finally, limited service desk resources were allocated to obtain the values of the performance indicators under different resource allocation scenarios in order to determine the optimal allocation scheme. Under limited resource allocation, this scheme enables users to maximize the performance of the application layer firewall.

  7. Catalytic heat exchangers - a long-term evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silversand, Fredrik A. [CATATOR AB, Lund (Sweden)

    2003-10-01

    A long-term evaluation concerning catalytic heat exchangers (CHEs) has been performed. The idea concerning CHEs was originally described in a number of reports issued by Catator almost a decade ago. The general idea with CHEs is to combust a fuel with a catalyst inside a heat exchanger to enable an effective heat transfer. The first design approaches demonstrated the function and the possibilities with CHEs but were defective concerning the heat exchanger design. Consequently, a heat exchanger company (SWEP International AB), which was specialised on brazed plate-type heat exchangers, joined the continued development project. Indeed, the new design approach containing Catator's wire-mesh catalysts and SWEP's plate-type heat exchangers enabled us to improve the concept considerably. The new design complied with a number of relevant technical demands, e.g.: Simplicity; Compactness and integration (few parts); High thermal efficiency; Low pressure drop; Excellent emissions; High turn-down ratio; Reasonable production cost. Spurred by the technical progresses, the importance of a long-term test under realistic conditions was clear. A long-term evaluation was initialised at Sydkraft Gas premises in Aastorp. The CHE was installed on a specially designed rig to enable accelerated testing with respect to the number of transients. The rig was operated continuously for 5000 hours and emission mapping was carried out at certain time intervals. Following some problems during the initial phase of the long-term evaluation, which unfortunately also delayed the project, the results indicated very stable conditions of operation. The emissions have been rather constant during the course of the test and we cannot see any tendencies to decreased performances. Indeed, the test verifies the function, operability and reliability of the CHE-concept. Apart from domestic boilers we foresee a number of interesting and relevant applications in heating and process technology. Since

  8. Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maura Murru

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

  9. Short-term carcinogenesis evaluation of Casearia sylvestris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleide A.S. Tirloni

    Full Text Available Abstract Casearia sylvestris Sw., Salicaceae, is an important medicinal plant widely used in Brazil for the treatment of various cardiovascular disorders. This species was included as of interest by Brazilian Unified Health System. Although preclinical studies described cardiovascular protective effects and apparent absence of toxicity, no studies have evaluated its carcinogenic potential. In this study, we proposed a short-term carcinogenesis evaluation of C. sylvestris in Wistar rats, aiming to check the safety of this species to use it as proposed by Brazilian Unified Health System. C. sylvestris leaves were obtained and the crude extract was prepared by maceration from methanol/water. Wistar rats were orally treated for 12 weeks with 50, 250 or 500 mg kg−1 of crude extract or vehicle. Body weight, daily morbidity and mortality were monitored. Blood and bone marrow samples were collect for micronucleus test, comet assay and tumor markers evaluation. Vital organs were removed to macro and histopathological analyses. The crude extract did not induce mutagenic and genotoxic effects and no alterations were observed in important tumor markers. Finally, no detectable signs of injury through gross pathology or histopathological examinations were observed. Our results certify the absence of the crude extract toxicity, indicating its safety, even at prolonged exposure as proposed by Brazilian Unified Health System.

  10. Preliminary fiscal evaluation of Alberta oil sands terms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Meurs, P.

    2007-01-01

    The cost of oil sands projects varies significantly. While costs have escalated considerably over the past few years, oil prices have gone significantly higher. This report provided an economic evaluation of the current fiscal terms applicable to Alberta oil sands. The analysis was done to evaluate the profitability of oil sand projects to investors under current conditions based on the generic royalty regime based on bitumen values. The objective of the royalty review was to determine whether Albertans received a fair share from their oil and gas resources. It discussed the wide variety of oil sands projects in Alberta using five case studies as examples. Cases involving steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) operations were assessed for both the Athabasca Mine and Cold Lake. The report provided a discussion of the economic assumptions including economic cases as well as production, costs and price data. It then provided the preliminary results of the economic-fiscal evaluation from the investor perspective including profitability indicators; international comparisons; internal rate of return; and net present value. The government perspective was also discussed with reference to attractiveness indicators; royalties as a percentage of bitumen values; and non-discounted and discounted government take. A royalty and tax feature analysis was also provided. Several issues for possible further review were also presented. tabs

  11. Performability Modelling Tools, Evaluation Techniques and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    1990-01-01

    This thesis deals with three aspects of quantitative evaluation of fault-tolerant and distributed computer and communication systems: performability evaluation techniques, performability modelling tools, and performability modelling applications. Performability modelling is a relatively new

  12. Use of an operational model evaluation system for model intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foster, K. T., LLNL

    1998-03-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) is a centralized emergency response system used to assess the impact from atmospheric releases of hazardous materials. As part of an on- going development program, new three-dimensional diagnostic windfield and Lagrangian particle dispersion models will soon replace ARAC`s current operational windfield and dispersion codes. A prototype model performance evaluation system has been implemented to facilitate the study of the capabilities and performance of early development versions of these new models relative to ARAC`s current operational codes. This system provides tools for both objective statistical analysis using common performance measures and for more subjective visualization of the temporal and spatial relationships of model results relative to field measurements. Supporting this system is a database of processed field experiment data (source terms and meteorological and tracer measurements) from over 100 individual tracer releases.

  13. 'Semi-realistic'F-term inflation model building in supergravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kain, Ben

    2008-01-01

    We describe methods for building 'semi-realistic' models of F-term inflation. By semi-realistic we mean that they are built in, and obey the requirements of, 'semi-realistic' particle physics models. The particle physics models are taken to be effective supergravity theories derived from orbifold compactifications of string theory, and their requirements are taken to be modular invariance, absence of mass terms and stabilization of moduli. We review the particle physics models, their requirements and tools and methods for building inflation models

  14. The IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Working Paper is intended for readers who wish to explore the MOSES methodology in depth; there is also a brochure which provides an overview of the analysis and results.

  15. Pathologic evaluation of normal and perfused term placental tissue

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maroun, Lisa Leth; Mathiesen, Line; Hedegaard, Morten

    2014-01-01

    This study reports for the 1st time the incidence and interobserver variation of morphologic findings in a series of 34 term placentas from pregnancies with normal outcome used for perfusion studies. Histologic evaluation of placental tissue is challenging, especially when it comes to defining...... "normal tissue" versus "pathologic lesions." A scoring system for registration of abnormal morphologic findings was developed. Light microscopic examination was performed independently by 2 pathologists, and interobserver variation was analyzed. Findings in normal and perfused tissue were compared...... and selected findings were tested against success parameters from the perfusions. Finally, the criteria for frequent lesions with fair to poor interobserver variation in the nonperfused tissue were revised and reanalyzed. In the perfused tissue, the perfusion artefact "trophoblastic vacuolization," which...

  16. Transcatheter arterial embolization for hepatoma; I. Short-term evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Heung Suk; Koh, Byung Hee; Cho, On Koo; Hahm, Chang Kok; Rhee, Jong Chul; Lee, Min Ho; Kee, Choon Suhk [Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1985-12-15

    Anticancer effect and complications were evaluated after transcatheter arterial embolization (TAE) in 12 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma until 2 weeks and 4 weeks after TAE, respectively. The results were as follows; 1. Serum alpha-fetoprotein value decreased in 7 out of 9 patients with high value prior to TAE. 2. Loss of enhancement and better definition on enhanced computed tomography (CT) were seen in the tumors in all caes, and low density areas in 9/10.Gas bubbles were seen in low-density areas in 4/10 and high density areas caused by lipiodol in 6/10. 3. Post-embolization syndrome was developed in most patients but improved clinically within a week after TAE. 4. On laboratory examination, impairment of liver function was developed in most patients but improved within 4 weeks after TAE. 5. Complications on CT included splenic infarction and thickening of wall of the gallbladder, which didn't require specific treatment. The authors conclude that TAE for hepatocellular carcinoma reveals apparent anticancer effect on short-term evaluation, and resultant complications are transient and improved by conservative treatment.

  17. Transcatheter arterial embolization for hepatoma; I. Short-term evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Heung Suk; Koh, Byung Hee; Cho, On Koo; Hahm, Chang Kok; Rhee, Jong Chul; Lee, Min Ho; Kee, Choon Suhk

    1985-01-01

    Anticancer effect and complications were evaluated after transcatheter arterial embolization (TAE) in 12 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma until 2 weeks and 4 weeks after TAE, respectively. The results were as follows; 1. Serum alpha-fetoprotein value decreased in 7 out of 9 patients with high value prior to TAE. 2. Loss of enhancement and better definition on enhanced computed tomography (CT) were seen in the tumors in all caes, and low density areas in 9/10.Gas bubbles were seen in low-density areas in 4/10 and high density areas caused by lipiodol in 6/10. 3. Post-embolization syndrome was developed in most patients but improved clinically within a week after TAE. 4. On laboratory examination, impairment of liver function was developed in most patients but improved within 4 weeks after TAE. 5. Complications on CT included splenic infarction and thickening of wall of the gallbladder, which didn't require specific treatment. The authors conclude that TAE for hepatocellular carcinoma reveals apparent anticancer effect on short-term evaluation, and resultant complications are transient and improved by conservative treatment

  18. Evaluation Model for Sentient Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mª Florencia Fergnani Brion

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article we made a research about the Sentient Cities and produced an assessment model to analyse if a city is or could be potentially considered one. It can be used to evaluate the current situation of a city before introducing urban policies based on citizen participation in hybrid environments (physical and digital. To that effect, we've developed evaluation grids with the main elements that form a Sentient City and their measurement values. The Sentient City is a variation of the Smart City, also based on technology progress and innovation, but where the citizens are the principal agent. In this model, governments aim to have a participatory and sustainable system for achieving the Knowledge Society and Collective Intelligence development, as well as the city’s efficiency. Also, they increase communication channels between the Administration and citizens. In this new context, citizens are empowered because they have the opportunity to create a Local Identity and transform their surroundings through open and horizontal initiatives.

  19. A phenomenological memristor model for short-term/long-term memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Ahmad, Hafiz Gulfam; Chen, Yiran

    2014-01-01

    Memristor is considered to be a natural electrical synapse because of its distinct memory property and nanoscale. In recent years, more and more similar behaviors are observed between memristors and biological synapse, e.g., short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The traditional mathematical models are unable to capture the new emerging behaviors. In this article, an updated phenomenological model based on the model of the Hewlett–Packard (HP) Labs has been proposed to capture such new behaviors. The new dynamical memristor model with an improved ion diffusion term can emulate the synapse behavior with forgetting effect, and exhibit the transformation between the STM and the LTM. Further, this model can be used in building new type of neural networks with forgetting ability like biological systems, and it is verified by our experiment with Hopfield neural network. - Highlights: • We take the Fick diffusion and the Soret diffusion into account in the ion drift theory. • We develop a new model based on the old HP model. • The new model can describe the forgetting effect and the spike-rate-dependent property of memristor. • The new model can solve the boundary effect of all window functions discussed in [13]. • A new Hopfield neural network with the forgetting ability is built by the new memristor model

  20. The Spiral-Interactive Program Evaluation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaleel, Ibrahim Adamu

    1988-01-01

    Describes the spiral interactive program evaluation model, which is designed to evaluate vocational-technical education programs in secondary schools in Nigeria. Program evaluation is defined; utility oriented and process oriented models for evaluation are described; and internal and external evaluative factors and variables that define each…

  1. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  2. Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

  3. The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    2017-01-01

    In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive unified treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model X(t)=Z(t) Y(t), where Z(t) belongs to a large class...... of deterministic regressors and Y(t) is a zero-mean CVAR. We suggest an extended model that can be estimated by reduced rank regression and give a condition for when the additive and extended models are asymptotically equivalent, as well as an algorithm for deriving the additive model parameters from the extended...... model parameters. We derive asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss tests for rank and tests on the deterministic terms. In particular, we give conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically (mixed) Gaussian, such that associated tests are X 2 -distributed....

  4. The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive unified treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model X(t)= Z(t) + Y(t), where Z(t) belongs to a large class...... of deterministic regressors and Y(t) is a zero-mean CVAR. We suggest an extended model that can be estimated by reduced rank regression and give a condition for when the additive and extended models are asymptotically equivalent, as well as an algorithm for deriving the additive model parameters from the extended...... model parameters. We derive asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss tests for rank and tests on the deterministic terms. In particular, we give conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically (mixed) Gaussian, such that associated tests are khi squared distributed....

  5. A Neural Network Model of the Visual Short-Term Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Anders; Kyllingsbæk, Søren; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a neural network model of Visual Short-Term Memory (VSTM) is presented. The model links closely with Bundesen’s (1990) well-established mathematical theory of visual attention. We evaluate the model’s ability to fit experimental data from a classical whole and partial report study...

  6. Model description for calculating the source term of the Angra 1 environmental control system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Amaral Neto, J.D.; Salles, M.R.

    1988-01-01

    This work presents the model used for evaluation of source term released from Angra 1 Nuclear Power Plant in case of an accident. After that, an application of the model for the case of a Fuel Assembly Drop Accident Inside the Fuel Handling Building during reactor refueling is presented. (author) [pt

  7. Long-term evaluation of opioid treatment in fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiaomei; Robinson, Rebecca L; Mease, Philip; Kroenke, Kurt; Williams, David A; Chen, Yi; Faries, Douglas; Wohlreich, Madelaine; McCarberg, Bill; Hann, Danette

    2015-01-01

    In a 12-month observational study, we evaluated the effect of opioid use on the outcomes in 1700 adult patients with fibromyalgia. Data were evaluated using propensity score matching after patients were divided into cohorts based on their baseline medication use: (1) taking an opioid (concurrent use of tramadol was permitted); (2) taking tramadol (but no opioids); and (3) not taking opioids or tramadol. Changes in outcomes were assessed using the Brief Pain Inventory for severity and pain-related interference (BPI-S, BPI-I), Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ), Patient Health Questionnaire for depression (PHQ-8), Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Sheehan Disability Scale (SDS), 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7), and economic factors. Time-to-opioid or tramadol discontinuation was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. Compared with the opioid cohort, the nonopioid cohort demonstrated significantly greater reductions (PFIQ, PHQ-8, SDS, and ISI; the tramadol cohort compared with the opioid group showed greater reductions on FIQ and ISI. Reductions in BPI-S and GAD-7 did not differ significantly among cohorts. Compared with the opioid cohort, patients in the tramadol cohort had fewer outpatient visits to health care providers. Few significant differences were found between the tramadol and nonopioid cohorts across outcomes. Although pain severity was reduced over time in all cohorts, opioid users showed less improvement in pain-related interference with daily living, functioning, depression, and insomnia. Overall, the findings show little support for the long-term use of opioid medications in patients with fibromyalgia given the poorer outcomes across multiple assessment domains associated with this cohort.

  8. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  9. Simple model for crop photosynthesis in terms of weather variables ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical mathematical model for describing crop photosynthetic rate in terms of the weather variables and crop characteristics is proposed. The model utilizes a series of efficiency parameters, each of which reflect the fraction of possible photosynthetic rate permitted by the different weather elements or crop architecture.

  10. Model for expressing leaf photosynthesis in terms of weather variables

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical mathematical model for describing photosynthesis in individual leaves in terms of weather variables is proposed. The model utilizes a series of efficiency parameters, each of which reflect the fraction of potential photosynthetic rate permitted by the different environmental elements. These parameters are useful ...

  11. Evaluation of Short Term Memory Span Function In Children

    OpenAIRE

    Barış ERGÜL; Arzu ALTIN YAVUZ; Ebru GÜNDOĞAN AŞIK

    2016-01-01

    Although details of the information encoded in the short-term memory where it is stored temporarily be recorded in the working memory in the next stage. Repeating the information mentally makes it remain in memory for a long time. Studies investigating the relationship between short-term memory and reading skills that are carried out to examine the relationship between short-term memory processes and reading comprehension. In this study information coming to short-term memory and the factors ...

  12. The Starobinsky model from superconformal D-term inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchmuller, W.; Domcke, V.; Kamada, K.

    2013-06-01

    We point out that in the large field regime, the recently proposed superconformal D-term inflation model coincides with the Starobinsky model. In this regime, the inflaton field dominates over the Planck mass in the gravitational kinetic term in the Jordan frame. Slow-roll inflation is realized in the large field regime for sufficiently large gauge couplings. The Starobinsky model generally emerges as an effective description of slow-roll inflation if a Jordan frame exists where, for large inflaton field values, the action is scale invariant and the ratio λ of the inflaton self-coupling and the nonminimal coupling to gravity is tiny. The interpretation of this effective coupling is different in different models. In superconformal D-term inflation it is determined by the scale of grand unification, λ∝(Λ GUT /M P ) 4 .

  13. The Starobinsky model from superconformal D-term inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchmuller, W.; Domcke, V.; Kamada, K.

    2013-06-15

    We point out that in the large field regime, the recently proposed superconformal D-term inflation model coincides with the Starobinsky model. In this regime, the inflaton field dominates over the Planck mass in the gravitational kinetic term in the Jordan frame. Slow-roll inflation is realized in the large field regime for sufficiently large gauge couplings. The Starobinsky model generally emerges as an effective description of slow-roll inflation if a Jordan frame exists where, for large inflaton field values, the action is scale invariant and the ratio {lambda} of the inflaton self-coupling and the nonminimal coupling to gravity is tiny. The interpretation of this effective coupling is different in different models. In superconformal D-term inflation it is determined by the scale of grand unification, {lambda}{proportional_to}({Lambda}{sub GUT}/M{sub P}){sup 4}.

  14. A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Rosenskjold, Carsten Paysen T.

    The prototypical Lee-Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently across age groups. In this paper we propose a factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple factors are designed to influence the age groups differently via...... on the loading functions, the factors are not designed to be orthogonal but can be dependent and can possibly cointegrate when the factors have unit roots. We suggest two estimation procedures similar to the estimation of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel term structure model. First, a two-step nonlinear least squares...... procedure based on cross-section regressions together with a separate model to estimate the dynamics of the factors. Second, we suggest a fully specified model estimated by maximum likelihood via the Kalman filter recursions after the model is put on state space form. We demonstrate the methodology for US...

  15. Evaluation of Models of the Reading Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balajthy, Ernest

    A variety of reading process models have been proposed and evaluated in reading research. Traditional approaches to model evaluation specify the workings of a system in a simplified fashion to enable organized, systematic study of the system's components. Following are several statistical methods of model evaluation: (1) empirical research on…

  16. Models with oscillator terms in noncommutative quantum field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kronberger, E.

    2010-01-01

    The main focus of this Ph.D. thesis is on noncommutative models involving oscillator terms in the action. The first one historically is the successful Grosse-Wulkenhaar (G.W.) model which has already been proven to be renormalizable to all orders of perturbation theory. Remarkably it is furthermore capable of solving the Landau ghost problem. In a first step, we have generalized the G.W. model to gauge theories in a very straightforward way, where the action is BRS invariant and exhibits the good damping properties of the scalar theory by using the same propagator, the so-called Mehler kernel. To be able to handle some more involved one-loop graphs we have programmed a powerful Mathematica package, which is capable of analytically computing Feynman graphs with many terms. The result of those investigations is that new terms originally not present in the action arise, which led us to the conclusion that we should better start from a theory where those terms are already built in. Fortunately there is an action containing this complete set of terms. It can be obtained by coupling a gauge field to the scalar field of the G.W. model, integrating out the latter, and thus 'inducing' a gauge theory. Hence the model is called Induced Gauge Theory. Despite the advantage that it is by construction completely gauge invariant, it contains also some unphysical terms linear in the gauge field. Advantageously we could get rid of these terms using a special gauge dedicated to this purpose. Within this gauge we could again establish the Mehler kernel as gauge field propagator. Furthermore we where able to calculate the ghost propagator, which turned out to be very involved. Thus we were able to start with the first few loop computations showing the expected behavior. The next step is to show renormalizability of the model, where some hints towards this direction will also be given. (author) [de

  17. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  18. Evaluating Translational Research: A Process Marker Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trochim, William; Kane, Cathleen; Graham, Mark J.; Pincus, Harold A.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objective: We examine the concept of translational research from the perspective of evaluators charged with assessing translational efforts. One of the major tasks for evaluators involved in translational research is to help assess efforts that aim to reduce the time it takes to move research to practice and health impacts. Another is to assess efforts that are intended to increase the rate and volume of translation. Methods: We offer an alternative to the dominant contemporary tendency to define translational research in terms of a series of discrete “phases.”Results: We contend that this phased approach has been confusing and that it is insufficient as a basis for evaluation. Instead, we argue for the identification of key operational and measurable markers along a generalized process pathway from research to practice. Conclusions: This model provides a foundation for the evaluation of interventions designed to improve translational research and the integration of these findings into a field of translational studies. Clin Trans Sci 2011; Volume 4: 153–162 PMID:21707944

  19. A simplified approach to evaluating severe accident source term for PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Gaofeng; Tong, Lili; Cao, Xuewu

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Traditional source term evaluation approaches have been studied. • A simplified approach of source term evaluation for 600 MW PWR is studied. • Five release categories are established. - Abstract: For early design of NPPs, no specific severe accident source term evaluation was considered. Some general source terms have been used for some NPPs. In order to implement a best estimate, a special source term evaluation should be implemented for an NPP. Traditional source term evaluation approaches (mechanism approach and parametric approach) have some difficulties associated with their implementation. The traditional approaches are not consistent with cost-benefit assessment. A simplified approach for evaluating severe accident source term for PWR is studied. For the simplified approach, a simplified containment event tree is established. According to representative cases selection, weighted coefficient evaluation, computation of representative source term cases and weighted computation, five containment release categories are established, including containment bypass, containment isolation failure, containment early failure, containment late failure and intact containment

  20. Creating a Long-Term Diabetic Rabbit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianpu Wang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was to create a long-term rabbit model of diabetes mellitus for medical studies of up to one year or longer and to evaluate the effects of chronic hyperglycemia on damage of major organs. A single dose of alloxan monohydrate (100 mg/kg was given intravenously to 20 young New Zealand White rabbits. Another 12 age-matched normal rabbits were used as controls. Hyperglycemia developed within 48 hours after treatment with alloxan. Insulin was given daily after diabetes developed. All animals gained some body weight, but the gain was much less than the age-matched nondiabetic rabbits. Hyperlipidemia, higher blood urea nitrogen and creatinine were found in the diabetic animals. Histologically, the pancreas showed marked beta cell damage. The kidneys showed significantly thickened afferent glomerular arterioles with narrowed lumens along with glomerular atrophy. Lipid accumulation in the cytoplasm of hepatocytes appeared as vacuoles. Full-thickness skin wound healing was delayed. In summary, with careful management, alloxan-induced diabetic rabbits can be maintained for one year or longer in reasonably good health for diabetic studies.

  1. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  2. Autoradiographic thyroid evaluation in short-term experimental diabetes mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nascimento-Saba C.C.A.

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that in vitro thyroid peroxidase (TPO iodide oxidation activity is decreased and thyroid T4-5'-deiodinase activity is increased 15 days after induction of experimental diabetes mellitus (DM. In the present study we used thyroid histoautoradiography, an indirect assay of in vivo TPO activity, to determine the possible parallelism between the in vitro and in vivo changes induced by experimental DM. DM was induced in male Wistar rats (about 250 g body weight by a single ip streptozotocin injection (45 mg/kg, while control (C animals received a single injection of the vehicle. Seven and 30 days after diabetes induction, each diabetic and control animal was given ip a tracer dose of 125I (2 µCi, 2.5 h before thyroid excision. The glands were counted, weighed, fixed in Bouin's solution, embedded in paraffin and cut. The sections were stained with HE and exposed to NTB-2 emulsion (Kodak. The autohistograms were developed and the quantitative distribution of silver grains was evaluated with a computerized image analyzer system. Thyroid radioiodine uptake was significantly decreased only after 30 days of DM (C: 0.38 ± 0.05 vs DM: 0.20 ± 0.04%/mg thyroid, P<0.05 while in vivo TPO activity was significantly decreased 7 and 30 days after DM induction (C: 5.3 and 4.5 grains/100 µm2 vs DM: 2.9 and 1.6 grains/100 µm2, respectively, P<0.05 . These data suggest that insulin deficiency first reduces in vivo TPO activity during short-term experimental diabetes mellitus

  3. Evaluation of long-term mechanical stability of near field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaji, Kazuhiko; Sugino, Hiroyuki; Okutsu, Kazuo; Miura, Kazuhiko; Tabei, Kazuto; Noda, Masaru; Takahashi, Shinichi; Sugie, Shigehiko

    1999-11-01

    In the near field, as tunnels and pits are excavated, a redistribution of stresses in the surrounding rock will occur. For a long period of time after the emplacement of waste packages various events will take place, such as the swelling of the buffer, sinking of the overpack under its own weight, deformation arising from expansion of overpack corrosion products and the creep deformation of the rock mass. The evaluation of what effects these changes in the stress-state will have on the buffer and rock mass is a major issue from the viewpoint of safety assessment. Therefore, rock creep analysis, overpack corrosion expansion analysis and overpack sinking analysis have been made in order to examine the long-term mechanical stability of the near field and the interaction of various events that may affect the stability of the near field over a long period of time. As the results, rock creep behavior, the variations of the stress-state and the range of the influence zone differ from the rock strength, strength of buffer in the tunnel and side pressure coefficient etc. about the hard rock system and soft rock system established as basic cases. And the magnitude of the stress variations for buffer by the overpack sinking and rock creep deformation is negligible compared with it by the overpack corrosion expansion. Furthermore, though very limited zone of buffer around the overpack is close to the critical state by the overpack corrosion expansion, the engineered barrier system attains a comparatively stable state for a long period of time. (author)

  4. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  5. World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-12-01

    The World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) is an aggregate demand-based partial equilibrium model used by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to project long-term domestic and international nuclear energy requirements. WINES follows a top-down approach in which economic growth rates, delivered energy demand growth rates, and electricity demand are projected successively to ultimately forecast total nuclear generation and nuclear capacity. WINES could be potentially used to produce forecasts for any country or region in the world. Presently, WINES is being used to generate long-term forecasts for the United States, and for all countries with commercial nuclear programs in the world, excluding countries located in centrally planned economic areas. Projections for the United States are developed for the period from 2010 through 2030, and for other countries for the period starting in 2000 or 2005 (depending on the country) through 2010. EIA uses a pipeline approach to project nuclear capacity for the period between 1990 and the starting year for which the WINES model is used. This approach involves a detailed accounting of existing nuclear generating units and units under construction, their capacities, their actual or estimated time of completion, and the estimated date of retirements. Further detail on this approach can be found in Appendix B of Commercial Nuclear Power 1991: Prospects for the United States and the World

  6. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  7. Long-Term Stability Evaluation and Pillar Design Criterion for Room-and-Pillar Mines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The collapse of abandoned room-and-pillar mines is often violent and unpredictable. Safety concerns often resulted in mine closures with no post-mining stability evaluations. As a result, large amounts of land resources over room-and-pillar mines are wasted. This paper attempts to establish an understanding of the long-term stability issues of goafs (abandoned mines. Considering progressive pillar failures and the effect of single pillar failure on surrounding pillars, this paper proposes a pillar peeling model to evaluate the long-term stability of coal mines and the associated criteria for evaluating the long-term stability of room-and-pillar mines. The validity of the peeling model was verified by numerical simulation, and field data from 500 pillar cases from China, South Africa, and India. It is found that the damage level of pillar peeling is affected by the peel angle and pillar height and is controlled by the pillar width–height ratio.

  8. Evaluation of effects of long term exposure on lethal toxicity with mammals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verma, Vibha; Yu, Qiming J.; Connell, Des W.

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between exposure time (LT 50 ) and lethal exposure concentration (LC 50 ) has been evaluated over relatively long exposure times using a novel parameter, Normal Life Expectancy (NLT), as a long term toxicity point. The model equation, ln(LT 50 ) = aLC 50 ν + b, where a, b and ν are constants, was evaluated by plotting lnLT 50 against LC 50 using available toxicity data based on inhalation exposure from 7 species of mammals. With each specific toxicant a single consistent relationship was observed for all mammals with ν always <1. Use of NLT as a long term toxicity point provided a valuable limiting point for long exposure times. With organic compounds, the Kow can be used to calculate the model constants a and v where these are unknown. The model can be used to characterise toxicity to specific mammals and then be extended to estimate toxicity at any exposure time with other mammals. -- Highlights: • Model introduces a new parameter, normal life expectancy, to explain changes in toxicity with time. • Model is innovatory as it can be used to calculate toxicity at any, particularly long exposure times. • Toxicity is influenced by normal life expectancy of the organism particularly longer exposure times. • The model was applicable to all the mammals (7 species) evaluated. • The model can be used to predict toxicity at different exposure times with untested mammals species. -- The RLE model provides a mathematical description of the change in toxicity over time for a particular chemical. This represents a major advance on the use of Haber's Rule in toxicology

  9. Murine model of long-term obstructive jaundice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

    2016-11-01

    With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of three murine models of obstructive jaundice. C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Overall, 70% (7 of 10) of tCL mice died by day 7, whereas majority 67% (10 of 15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. A total of 19% (3 of 16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 d after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension and severe fibrosis by day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice, but long-term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Criticality evaluation of long term for spent fuel, using Scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esquivel E, J.; Vargas E, S.; Ramirez S, J. R.

    2013-10-01

    Once carried out the spent fuel discharge, of the reactor core, this continues generating decay heat and diverse fission products, reason why is important to store this fuel inside containers able to dissipate the heat generated by the isotopes decay of the fuel and to maintain the fuels arrangement in subcritical condition. This means that: is necessary to assure the sub-criticality of those fuel assemblies in the time. This work, presents a criticality evaluation of fuel assemblies type PWR in a storage generic container. For this purpose have been used two codes: GeeWiz, to carry out the geometric model of the container with the fuel assemblies, and Keno, with which, the criticality of the full container with fuel is determined until a 10 6 years period. These codes are part of the package Scale. The specifications for each one of the analyzed components are based on a Benchmark document of the Nea/OECD, of where, the results that reports are compared with the obtained results by the realized analysis. (Author)

  11. Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2014-01-01

    Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

  12. Selection of models to calculate the LLW source term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.M.

    1991-10-01

    Performance assessment of a LLW disposal facility begins with an estimation of the rate at which radionuclides migrate out of the facility (i.e., the source term). The focus of this work is to develop a methodology for calculating the source term. In general, the source term is influenced by the radionuclide inventory, the wasteforms and containers used to dispose of the inventory, and the physical processes that lead to release from the facility (fluid flow, container degradation, wasteform leaching, and radionuclide transport). In turn, many of these physical processes are influenced by the design of the disposal facility (e.g., infiltration of water). The complexity of the problem and the absence of appropriate data prevent development of an entirely mechanistic representation of radionuclide release from a disposal facility. Typically, a number of assumptions, based on knowledge of the disposal system, are used to simplify the problem. This document provides a brief overview of disposal practices and reviews existing source term models as background for selecting appropriate models for estimating the source term. The selection rationale and the mathematical details of the models are presented. Finally, guidance is presented for combining the inventory data with appropriate mechanisms describing release from the disposal facility. 44 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  13. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Achdou , Yves; Giraud , Pierre-Noel; Lasry , Jean-Michel; Lions , Pierre-Louis

    2016-01-01

    International audience; A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is descr...

  14. Multivariate Term Structure Models with Level and Heteroskedasticity Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2005-01-01

    The paper introduces and estimates a multivariate level-GARCH model for the long rate and the term-structure spread where the conditional volatility is proportional to the ãth power of the variable itself (level effects) and the conditional covariance matrix evolves according to a multivariate GA...... and the level model. GARCH effects are more important than level effects. The results are robust to the maturity of the interest rates. Udgivelsesdato: MAY...

  15. Evaluation of Term Ranking Algorithms for Pseudo-Relevance Feedback in MEDLINE Retrieval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Sooyoung; Choi, Jinwook

    2011-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of query expansion algorithms for MEDLINE retrieval within a pseudo-relevance feedback framework. A number of query expansion algorithms were tested using various term ranking formulas, focusing on query expansion based on pseudo-relevance feedback. The OHSUMED test collection, which is a subset of the MEDLINE database, was used as a test corpus. Various ranking algorithms were tested in combination with different term re-weighting algorithms. Our comprehensive evaluation showed that the local context analysis ranking algorithm, when used in combination with one of the reweighting algorithms - Rocchio, the probabilistic model, and our variants - significantly outperformed other algorithm combinations by up to 12% (paired t-test; p algorithm pairs, at least in the context of the OHSUMED corpus. Comparative experiments on term ranking algorithms were performed in the context of a subset of MEDLINE documents. With medical documents, local context analysis, which uses co-occurrence with all query terms, significantly outperformed various term ranking methods based on both frequency and distribution analyses. Furthermore, the results of the experiments demonstrated that the term rank-based re-weighting method contributed to a remarkable improvement in mean average precision.

  16. Modelling the Long-term Periglacial Imprint on Mountain Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, David Lundbek; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Studies of periglacial processes usually focus on small-scale, isolated phenomena, leaving less explored questions of how such processes shape vast areas of Earth’s surface. Here we use numerical surface process modelling to better understand how periglacial processes drive large-scale, long-term...

  17. Viscous cosmological models with a variable cosmological term ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Einstein's field equations for a Friedmann-Lamaitre Robertson-Walker universe filled with a dissipative fluid with a variable cosmological term L described by full Israel-Stewart theory are considered. General solutions to the field equations for the flat case have been obtained. The solution corresponds to the dust free model ...

  18. A shell-model calculation in terms of correlated subsystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boisson, J.P.; Silvestre-Brac, B.

    1979-01-01

    A method for solving the shell-model equations in terms of a basis which includes correlated subsystems is presented. It is shown that the method allows drastic truncations of the basis to be made. The corresponding calculations are easy to perform and can be carried out rapidly

  19. Risk factors and prognostic models for perinatal asphyxia at term

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, S.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis will focus on the risk factors and prognostic models for adverse perinatal outcome at term, with a special focus on perinatal asphyxia and obstetric interventions during labor to reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes. For the majority of the studies in this thesis we were allowed to use data

  20. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  1. Modeling Wettability Variation during Long-Term Water Flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renyi Cao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface property of rock affects oil recovery during water flooding. Oil-wet polar substances adsorbed on the surface of the rock will gradually be desorbed during water flooding, and original reservoir wettability will change towards water-wet, and the change will reduce the residual oil saturation and improve the oil displacement efficiency. However there is a lack of an accurate description of wettability alternation model during long-term water flooding and it will lead to difficulties in history match and unreliable forecasts using reservoir simulators. This paper summarizes the mechanism of wettability variation and characterizes the adsorption of polar substance during long-term water flooding from injecting water or aquifer and relates the residual oil saturation and relative permeability to the polar substance adsorbed on clay and pore volumes of flooding water. A mathematical model is presented to simulate the long-term water flooding and the model is validated with experimental results. The simulation results of long-term water flooding are also discussed.

  2. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  3. A Study on Improvement of Algorithm for Source Term Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jeong Ho; Park, Do Hyung; Lee, Jae Hee

    2010-03-01

    The program developed by KAERI for source term assessment of radwastes from the advanced nuclear fuel cycle consists of spent fuel database analysis module, spent fuel arising projection module, and automatic characterization module for radwastes from pyroprocess. To improve the algorithm adopted the developed program, following items were carried out: - development of an algorithm to decrease analysis time for spent fuel database - development of setup routine for a analysis procedure - improvement of interface for spent fuel arising projection module - optimization of data management algorithm needed for massive calculation to estimate source terms of radwastes from advanced fuel cycle The program developed through this study has a capability to perform source term estimation although several spent fuel assemblies with different fuel design, initial enrichment, irradiation history, discharge burnup, and cooling time are processed at the same time in the pyroprocess. It is expected that this program will be very useful for the design of unit process of pyroprocess and disposal system

  4. Evaluation of the LMFBR cover gas source term and synthesis of the associated R and D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balard, F.; Carluec, B.

    1996-01-01

    At the end of the seventies and the beginning of the eighties, there appeared a pressing need of experimental results to assess the LMFBR's safety level. Because of the urgency, analytical studies were not systematically undertaken and maximum credible cover gas instantaneous source terms (radionuclides core release fraction) were got directly from crude out-of-pile experiment interpretations. Two types of studies and mock-ups were undertaken depending on the timescale of the phenomena: instantaneous source terms (corresponding to an unlikely energetic core disruptive accident CDA), and delayed ones (tens of minutes to some hours). The experiments performed in this frame are reviewed in this presentation: 1) instantaneous source term: - FAUST experiments: I, Cs, UO2 source terms (FzK, Germany), - FAST experiments : pool depth influence on non volatile source term (USA), - CARAVELLE experiments: nonvolatile source term in SPX1 geometry (CEA, France); 2) delayed source term: - NALA experiments: I, Cs, Sr, UO2 source term (FzK, Germany), - PAVE experiments: I source term (CEA, France), - NACOWA experiments: cover gas aerosols enrichment in I and Cs (FzK, Germany) - other French experiments in COPACABANA and GULLIVER facilities. The volatile fission products release is tightly bound to sodium evaporation and a large part of the fission products is dissolved in the liquid sodium aerosols present in the cover gas. Thus the knowledge of the amount of aerosol release to the cover gas is important for the evaluation of the source term. The maximum credible cover gas instantaneous source terms deduced from the experiments have led to conservative source terms to be taken into account in safety analysis. Nevertheless modelling attempts of the observed (in-pile or out-of-pile) physico-chemical phenomena have been undertaken for extrapolation to the reactor case. The main topics of this theoretical research are as follows: fission products evaporation in the cover gas (Fz

  5. Educational game models: conceptualization and evaluation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Educational game models: conceptualization and evaluation. ... The Game Object Model (GOM), that marries educational theory and game design, forms the basis for the development of the Persona Outlining ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  6. Study on crystalline rock for evaluating method of long-term behavior. FY2012 (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukui, Katsunori; Hashiba, Kimihiro; Tanno, Takeo; Hikima, Ryoichi; Sanada, Hiroyuki; Sato, Toshinori

    2013-12-01

    Rock shows time-dependent behavior such as creep/relaxation. With respect to high-level radioactive waste disposal, knowledge of the long-term mechanical stability of shafts and galleries excavated in rock are required, over a period of thousands of years after closure as well as during construction and operation. Therefore, it is very important to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock for evaluating long-term mechanical stability. The purpose of this study is to determine the mechanisms of time-dependent behavior of rock by the precise test (e.g. laboratory creep test), observation and measurement and to develop methods for evaluating long-term mechanical stability. In previous works, testing techniques were established and basic evaluation methods were developed. Recently, some parameters, which required for simulation of time-dependent behavior, were determined for the modeling of biotite granite (Toki granite) distributed around the Mizunami underground research laboratory. However, we were not able to obtain enough data to assess the reliability of the method to evaluate these parameters. This report describes the results of the research activities carried out in fiscal year 2012. In Chapter 1, we provide background and an overview of this study. In Chapter 2, the results of a long-term creep test on Tage tuff, started in fiscal year 1997, are described. In Chapter 3, the experimental results concerning the loading-rate dependency of rock strength were examined to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock. In Chapter 4, the stability of tunnels, under conditions which rock stress is larger than that around a circular tunnel, were examined to obtain useful information on the future plan for in-situ tests in the underground research laboratory. (author)

  7. The geometric phase and the Schwinger term in some models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grosse, H.; Langmann, E.

    1991-01-01

    We discuss quantization of fermions interacting with external fields and observe the occurrence of equivalent as well as inequivalent representations of the canonical anticommutation relations. Implementability of gauge and axial gauge transformations leads to generators which fulfill an algebra of charges with Schwinger term. This term can be written as a cocycle and leads to the boson-fermion correspondence. Transport of a quantum mechanical system along a closed loop of parameter space may yield a geometric mechanical system along a closed loop of parameter space may yield a geometric phase. We discuss models for which nonintegrable phase factors are obtained from the adiabatic parallel transport. After second quantization one obtains, in addition, a Schwinger term. Depending on the type of transformation a subtle relationship between these two obstructions can occur. We indicate finally how we may transport density matrices along closed loops in parameter space. (authors)

  8. The Schwinger term and the Berry phase in simple models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grosse, H.

    1989-01-01

    We discuss quantization of fermions interacting with external fields and observe the occurrence of equivalent as well as inequivalent representations of the canonical anticommutation relations. Implementability of gauge and axial gauge transformations leads to generators which fulfill an algebra of charges with Schwinger term. This term can be written as a cocycle and leads to the boson-fermion correspondence. During an adiabatic transport along closed loops in a parameter space we may pick up a nonintegrable phase factor, usually called the Berry phase. We study the occurrence of such a topological phase in a model and give the parallel transport for density matrices. After second quantization one may pick up both a Berry phase and a Schwinger term. 13 refs. (Author)

  9. Application of Multiple Evaluation Models in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Victal Saliba

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on two different samples, this article tests the performance of a number of Value Drivers commonly used for evaluating companies by finance practitioners, through simple regression models of cross-section type which estimate the parameters associated to each Value Driver, denominated Market Multiples. We are able to diagnose the behavior of several multiples in the period 1994-2004, with an outlook also on the particularities of the economic activities performed by the sample companies (and their impacts on the performance through a subsequent analysis with segregation of companies in the sample by sectors. Extrapolating simple multiples evaluation standards from analysts of the main financial institutions in Brazil, we find that adjusting the ratio formulation to allow for an intercept does not provide satisfactory results in terms of pricing errors reduction. Results found, in spite of evidencing certain relative and absolute superiority among the multiples, may not be generically representative, given samples limitation.

  10. PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

  11. The EMEFS model evaluation. An interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barchet, W.R. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Dennis, R.L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Seilkop, S.K. [Analytical Sciences, Inc., Durham, NC (United States); Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K. [Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, ON (Canada); Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N. [Computer Sciences Corp., Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Karamchandani, P.; Venkatram, A. [ENSR Consulting and Engineering, Camarillo, CA (United States); Fung, C.; Misra, P.K. [Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hansen, D.A. [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Chang, J.S. [State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States). Atmospheric Sciences Research Center

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  12. Nuclear source term evaluation for launch accident environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCulloch, W.H.

    1996-05-01

    When United States space missions involve launching vehicles carrying significant quantities of nuclear material, US law requires that prior to launch the mission be approved by the Office of the President. This approval is to be based on an evaluation of the nuclear safety risks associated with the mission and the projected benefits. To assist in the technical evaluation of risks for each mission, an Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) is instituted to provide an independent assessment of the mission risks. INSRP`s assessment begins with a review of the safety analysis for the mission completed by the organization proposing the mission and documented in a Safety Analysis Report (SAR). In addition, INSRP may execute other analyses it deems necessary. Results are documented and passed to the decision maker in a Safety Evaluation Report (SER). The INSRP review and evaluation process has been described in some detail in a number of papers.

  13. Nuclear source term evaluation for launch accident environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCulloch, W.H.

    1996-01-01

    When United States space missions involve launching vehicles carrying significant quantities of nuclear material, US law requires that prior to launch the mission be approved by the Office of the President. This approval is to be based on an evaluation of the nuclear safety risks associated with the mission and the projected benefits. To assist in the technical evaluation of risks for each mission, an Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) is instituted to provide an independent assessment of the mission risks. INSRP's assessment begins with a review of the safety analysis for the mission completed by the organization proposing the mission and documented in a Safety Analysis Report (SAR). In addition, INSRP may execute other analyses it deems necessary. Results are documented and passed to the decision maker in a Safety Evaluation Report (SER). The INSRP review and evaluation process has been described in some detail in a number of papers

  14. Maximal monotone model with delay term of convolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude-Henri Lamarque

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Mechanical models are governed either by partial differential equations with boundary conditions and initial conditions (e.g., in the frame of continuum mechanics or by ordinary differential equations (e.g., after discretization via Galerkin procedure or directly from the model description with the initial conditions. In order to study dynamical behavior of mechanical systems with a finite number of degrees of freedom including nonsmooth terms (e.g., friction, we consider here problems governed by differential inclusions. To describe effects of particular constitutive laws, we add a delay term. In contrast to previous papers, we introduce delay via a Volterra kernel. We provide existence and uniqueness results by using an Euler implicit numerical scheme; then convergence with its order is established. A few numerical examples are given.

  15. Evaluating short-term hydro-meteorological fluxes using GRACE-derived water storage changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eicker, A.; Jensen, L.; Springer, A.; Kusche, J.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric and terrestrial water budgets, which represent important boundary conditions for both climate modeling and hydrological studies, are linked by evapotranspiration (E) and precipitation (P). These fields are provided by numerical weather prediction models and atmospheric reanalyses such as ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land; yet, in particular the quality of E is still not well evaluated. Via the terrestrial water budget equation, water storage changes derived from products of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, combined with runoff (R) data can be used to assess the realism of atmospheric models. In this contribution we will investigate the closure of the water balance for short-term fluxes, i.e. the agreement of GRACE water storage changes with P-E-R flux time series from different (global and regional) atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, as well as observation-based data sets. Missing river runoff observations will be extrapolated using the calibrated rainfall-runoff model GR2M. We will perform a global analysis and will additionally focus on selected river basins in West Africa. The investigations will be carried out for various temporal scales, focusing on short-term fluxes down to daily variations to be detected in daily GRACE time series.

  16. Evaluation of a decontamination model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rippin, D.W.T.; Hanulik, J.; Schenker, E.; Ullrich, G.

    1981-02-01

    In the scale-up of a laboratory decontamination process difficulties arise due to the limited understanding of the mechanisms controlling the process. This paper contains some initial proposals which may contribute to the quantitative understanding of the chemical and physical factors which influence decontamination operations. General features required in a mathematical model to describe a fluid-solid reaction are discussed, and initial work is presented with a simple model which has had some success in describing the observed laboratory behaviour. (Auth.)

  17. Modelling Emotional and Attitudinal Evaluations of Major Sponsors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne; Hansen, Flemming

    2004-01-01

    The paper reports findings from a larger study of sponsors and their relationship to sponsoredparties. In the present reporting, the focus is on sponsors. Rather than evaluating suchsponsorships in traditional effect hierarchical terms, a conceptual Sponsor Value Model isspecified as a structural...

  18. Characteristics of geothermal structures of Poprad basin in terms of numerical modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagelova, A.; Fendek, M.

    2011-01-01

    Poprad basin is one of the promising areas in terms of geothermal resources. In terms of impact on the environment and the exploitation of geothermal waters it is important to quantify the natural geothermal water quantity. One of the most progressive methods of their evaluation is a method of numerical modelling. Before model creation it is necessary to characterize the geothermal structure. Character of hydro-geothermal structure consists of an analysis of Spatial distribution of collectors, hydraulic properties of collectors of geothermal water, pressure and temperature conditions and boundary conditions. Basic characteristics of geothermal energy transfer in the Poprad basin are described. (authors)

  19. A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suseelatha Annamareddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

  20. Short-Term Memory and Its Biophysical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Zhang, Kai; Tang, Xiao-wei

    1996-12-01

    The capacity of short-term memory has been studied using an integrate-and-fire neuronal network model. It is found that the storage of events depend on the manner of the correlation between the events, and the capacity is dominated by the value of after-depolarization potential. There is a monotonic increasing relationship between the value of after-depolarization potential and the memory numbers. The biophysics relevance of the network model is discussed and different kinds of the information processes are studied too.

  1. Modeling flood events for long-term stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schruben, T.; Portillo, R.

    1985-01-01

    The primary objective for the disposal of uranium mill tailings in the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is isolation and stabilization to prevent their misuse by man and dispersal by natural forces such as wind, rain, and flood waters (40 CFR-192). Stabilization of sites that are located in or near flood plains presents unique problems in design for long-term performance. This paper discusses the process involved with the selection and hydrologic modeling of the design flood event; and hydraulic modeling with geomorphic considerations of the design flood event. The Gunnison, Colorado, and Riverton, Wyoming, sites will be used as examples in describing the process

  2. D-term Spectroscopy in Realistic Heterotic-String Models

    CERN Document Server

    Dedes, Athanasios

    2000-01-01

    The emergence of free fermionic string models with solely the MSSM charged spectrum below the string scale provides further evidence to the assertion that the true string vacuum is connected to the Z_2 x Z_2 orbifold in the vicinity of the free fermionic point in the Narain moduli space. An important property of the Z_2 x Z_2 orbifold is the cyclic permutation symmetry between the three twisted sectors. If preserved in the three generations models the cyclic permutation symmetry results in a family universal anomalous U(1)_A, which is instrumental in explaining squark degeneracy, provided that the dominant component of supersymmetry breaking arises from the U(1)_A D-term. Interestingly, the contribution of the family--universal D_A-term to the squark masses may be intra-family non-universal, and may differ from the usual (universal) boundary conditions assumed in the MSSM. We contemplate how D_A--term spectroscopy may be instrumental in studying superstring models irrespective of our ignorance of the details ...

  3. Comparing Physics Textbooks in Terms of Assessment and Evaluation Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeynep Başkan Takaoğlu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Assessment and evaluation instruments provide teachers the opportunity of shaping education in the beginning, contributing to education during the process and evaluating education at the end of the process. Textbooks, on the other hand, are resources that present the aforementioned contributions to teachers at first hand. Thus, the study aims to compare the distribution of assessment and evaluation instruments in the physics textbooks being used in the academic year of 2011- 2012 and 2016-2017 according to units, settlement within units and types of assessment instruments that are used. For that purpose, 9, 10, 11 and 12th grade textbooks being used in physics lessons in the academic year of 2011-2012 and 2016-2017 were examined via document analysis method. As a result of the study, it was determined that the highest number of assessment instruments in physics textbooks from two different years was encountered in the unit of force and motion. The reason for this unit having higher number of questions could be associated with higher number of mathematical operations in the unit intended for allowing students to overcome their mathematical deficiencies by practicing such questions. It was observed that the number of questions was increased especially in the books being used in the academic year of 2016-2017 and alternative assessment instruments were fewer than traditional assessment instruments. Traditional assessment instruments are still used very frequently in the textbooks, which proves the effect of traditional approaches in assessment and evaluation. Another reason for this condition is that a result-oriented evaluation is used in the university entrance exam. In the light of these results, it is suggested to make the university exam student-centered rather than making an arrangement in textbooks.

  4. Site descriptive modelling - strategy for integrated evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Johan

    2003-02-01

    The current document establishes the strategy to be used for achieving sufficient integration between disciplines in producing Site Descriptive Models during the Site Investigation stage. The Site Descriptive Model should be a multidisciplinary interpretation of geology, rock mechanics, thermal properties, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, transport properties and ecosystems using site investigation data from deep bore holes and from the surface as input. The modelling comprise the following iterative steps, evaluation of primary data, descriptive and quantitative modelling (in 3D), overall confidence evaluation. Data are first evaluated within each discipline and then the evaluations are checked between the disciplines. Three-dimensional modelling (i.e. estimating the distribution of parameter values in space and its uncertainty) is made in a sequence, where the geometrical framework is taken from the geological model and in turn used by the rock mechanics, thermal and hydrogeological modelling etc. The three-dimensional description should present the parameters with their spatial variability over a relevant and specified scale, with the uncertainty included in this description. Different alternative descriptions may be required. After the individual discipline modelling and uncertainty assessment a phase of overall confidence evaluation follows. Relevant parts of the different modelling teams assess the suggested uncertainties and evaluate the feedback. These discussions should assess overall confidence by, checking that all relevant data are used, checking that information in past model versions is considered, checking that the different kinds of uncertainty are addressed, checking if suggested alternatives make sense and if there is potential for additional alternatives, and by discussing, if appropriate, how additional measurements (i.e. more data) would affect confidence. The findings as well as the modelling results are to be documented in a Site Description

  5. Short term assays for risk evaluate of α irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritsch, P.; Beauvallet, M.; Masse, R.; Lafuma, J.

    1979-01-01

    The genetic effects induced by α irradiation were examined using short term assays in Procaryotes and Eucaryotes. Irradiation was produced by 239 Pu dissolved as a DTPA equimolar complex in the culture medium. Induced mutagenesis was not observed with Ames' test or when test for ouabain resistance in CHO cells was used: GTG resistance and chromosome aberrations in Eucaryote cells were increased at dose rate exposure down to 5 R.day -1 . Until an optimal delivered dose, these two biological effects have shown a linear increase as a function of the dose. In our experimental conditions α irradiation has appeared to be much more lethal than mutagenic. Using lower dose rate, corresponding to 1 and 3 R a day we could also demonstrate a linear increase with dose of the induced TG resistant cells. Efficiency per unit dose was 3 to 5 times superior to what was observed at 5 R.day -1 . This phenomenon could correspond to an induced cell sensitivity, and clearly pointed out that for chronic and low delivered doses, informations deduced from flash or short term α exposure are not valuable

  6. Monte Carlo Euler approximations of HJM term structure financial models

    KAUST Repository

    Björk, Tomas

    2012-11-22

    We present Monte Carlo-Euler methods for a weak approximation problem related to the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) term structure model, based on Itô stochastic differential equations in infinite dimensional spaces, and prove strong and weak error convergence estimates. The weak error estimates are based on stochastic flows and discrete dual backward problems, and they can be used to identify different error contributions arising from time and maturity discretization as well as the classical statistical error due to finite sampling. Explicit formulas for efficient computation of sharp error approximation are included. Due to the structure of the HJM models considered here, the computational effort devoted to the error estimates is low compared to the work to compute Monte Carlo solutions to the HJM model. Numerical examples with known exact solution are included in order to show the behavior of the estimates. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

  7. Monte Carlo Euler approximations of HJM term structure financial models

    KAUST Repository

    Bjö rk, Tomas; Szepessy, Anders; Tempone, Raul; Zouraris, Georgios E.

    2012-01-01

    We present Monte Carlo-Euler methods for a weak approximation problem related to the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) term structure model, based on Itô stochastic differential equations in infinite dimensional spaces, and prove strong and weak error convergence estimates. The weak error estimates are based on stochastic flows and discrete dual backward problems, and they can be used to identify different error contributions arising from time and maturity discretization as well as the classical statistical error due to finite sampling. Explicit formulas for efficient computation of sharp error approximation are included. Due to the structure of the HJM models considered here, the computational effort devoted to the error estimates is low compared to the work to compute Monte Carlo solutions to the HJM model. Numerical examples with known exact solution are included in order to show the behavior of the estimates. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

  8. Evaluation of nuclear power development scenarios in romania envisaging the long-term national energy sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margeanu, C.; Apostol, M.; Visan, I.; Prodea, I.

    2015-01-01

    The paper summarizes the results of RATEN ICN Pitesti experts' activities in the IAEA's Collaborative Project INPRO-SYNERGIES. Romanian study proposes to evaluate and analyze development of the nuclear capacity and increasing of its share in national energy sector, envisaging the long term national and regional energy sustainability by keeping options open for the future while bringing solutions to short/medium-term challenges. The study focused on the modelling of national NES (Nuclear Energy System) development on short and medium-term (time horizon 2050), considering the existing NFC (Nuclear Fuel Cycle) infrastructure and legislation, provisions of strategic documents in force and including also the possibility of regional collaboration regarding U/fresh fuel supply and SF (Spent Fuel) storage, as services provided at international market prices. The energy system modelling was realized by using the IAEA's MESSAGE program. The study results offer a clear image and also the possible answer to several key questions regarding: potential of nuclear energy to participate with an important share in national energy mix, in conditions of cost competitiveness, safety and security of supply; impact on national energy mix portfolio of capacities and electricity production; impact on Uranium domestic resources; economic projection/investments needed for new nuclear capacities addition; fresh fuel requirements for nuclear capacities; SF annually discharged and transferred to interim wet storage for cooling; SF volume in interim dry storage, etc. (authors)

  9. Rock mechanics models evaluation report: Draft report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-10-01

    This report documents the evaluation of the thermal and thermomechanical models and codes for repository subsurface design and for design constraint analysis. The evaluation was based on a survey of the thermal and thermomechanical codes and models that are applicable to subsurface design, followed by a Kepner-Tregoe (KT) structured decision analysis of the codes and models. The end result of the KT analysis is a balanced, documented recommendation of the codes and models which are best suited to conceptual subsurface design for the salt repository. The various laws for modeling the creep of rock salt are also reviewed in this report. 37 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs

  10. Automated analysis of phantom images for the evaluation of long-term reproducibility in digital mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gennaro, G; Ferro, F; Contento, G; Fornasin, F; Di Maggio, C

    2007-01-01

    The performance of an automatic software package was evaluated with phantom images acquired by a full-field digital mammography unit. After the validation, the software was used, together with a Leeds TORMAS test object, to model the image acquisition process. Process modelling results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of the method in detecting changes of exposure parameters from routine image quality measurements in digital mammography, which is the ultimate purpose of long-term reproducibility tests. Image quality indices measured by the software included the mean pixel value and standard deviation of circular details and surrounding background, contrast-to-noise ratio and relative contrast; detail counts were also collected. The validation procedure demonstrated that the software localizes the phantom details correctly and the difference between automatic and manual measurements was within few grey levels. Quantitative analysis showed sufficient sensitivity to relate fluctuations in exposure parameters (kV p or mAs) to variations in image quality indices. In comparison, detail counts were found less sensitive in detecting image quality changes, even when limitations due to observer subjectivity were overcome by automatic analysis. In conclusion, long-term reproducibility tests provided by the Leeds TORMAS phantom with quantitative analysis of multiple IQ indices have been demonstrated to be effective in predicting causes of deviation from standard operating conditions and can be used to monitor stability in full-field digital mammography

  11. Evaluation of effects of long term exposure on lethal toxicity with mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Vibha; Yu, Qiming J; Connell, Des W

    2014-02-01

    The relationship between exposure time (LT50) and lethal exposure concentration (LC50) has been evaluated over relatively long exposure times using a novel parameter, Normal Life Expectancy (NLT), as a long term toxicity point. The model equation, ln(LT50) = aLC50(ν) + b, where a, b and ν are constants, was evaluated by plotting lnLT50 against LC50 using available toxicity data based on inhalation exposure from 7 species of mammals. With each specific toxicant a single consistent relationship was observed for all mammals with ν always mammals and then be extended to estimate toxicity at any exposure time with other mammals. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Evaluation of animal models of neurobehavioral disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nordquist Rebecca E

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Animal models play a central role in all areas of biomedical research. The process of animal model building, development and evaluation has rarely been addressed systematically, despite the long history of using animal models in the investigation of neuropsychiatric disorders and behavioral dysfunctions. An iterative, multi-stage trajectory for developing animal models and assessing their quality is proposed. The process starts with defining the purpose(s of the model, preferentially based on hypotheses about brain-behavior relationships. Then, the model is developed and tested. The evaluation of the model takes scientific and ethical criteria into consideration. Model development requires a multidisciplinary approach. Preclinical and clinical experts should establish a set of scientific criteria, which a model must meet. The scientific evaluation consists of assessing the replicability/reliability, predictive, construct and external validity/generalizability, and relevance of the model. We emphasize the role of (systematic and extended replications in the course of the validation process. One may apply a multiple-tiered 'replication battery' to estimate the reliability/replicability, validity, and generalizability of result. Compromised welfare is inherent in many deficiency models in animals. Unfortunately, 'animal welfare' is a vaguely defined concept, making it difficult to establish exact evaluation criteria. Weighing the animal's welfare and considerations as to whether action is indicated to reduce the discomfort must accompany the scientific evaluation at any stage of the model building and evaluation process. Animal model building should be discontinued if the model does not meet the preset scientific criteria, or when animal welfare is severely compromised. The application of the evaluation procedure is exemplified using the rat with neonatal hippocampal lesion as a proposed model of schizophrenia. In a manner congruent to

  13. A Constrained Standard Model: Effects of Fayet-Iliopoulos Terms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbieri, Riccardo; Hall, Lawrence J.; Nomura, Yasunori

    2001-01-01

    In (1)the one Higgs doublet standard model was obtained by an orbifold projection of a 5D supersymmetric theory in an essentially unique way, resulting in a prediction for the Higgs mass m H = 127 +- 8 GeV and for the compactification scale 1/R = 370 +- 70 GeV. The dominant one loop contribution to the Higgs potential was found to be finite, while the above uncertainties arose from quadratically divergent brane Z factors and from other higher loop contributions. In (3), a quadratically divergent Fayet-Iliopoulos term was found at one loop in this theory. We show that the resulting uncertainties in the predictions for the Higgs boson mass and the compactification scale are small, about 25percent of the uncertainties quoted above, and hence do not affect the original predictions. However, a tree level brane Fayet-Iliopoulos term could, if large enough, modify these predictions, especially for 1/R.

  14. MARKET EVALUATION MODEL: TOOL FORBUSINESS DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Porlles Loarte, José; Yenque Dedios, Julio; Lavado Soto, Aurelio

    2014-01-01

    In the present work the concepts of potential market and global market are analyzed as the basis for strategic decisions of market with long term perspectives, when the implantation of a business in certain geographic area is evaluated. On this conceptual frame, the methodological tool is proposed to evaluate a commercial decision, for which it is taken as reference the case from the brewing industry in Peru, considering that this industry faces in the region entrepreneurial reorderings withi...

  15. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  16. EVALUATION OF RADIONUCLIDE ACCUMULATION IN SOIL DUE TO LONG-TERM IRRIGATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Wesley Wu

    2006-01-01

    Radionuclide accumulation in soil due to long-term irrigation is an important part of the model for predicting radiation dose in a long period of time. The model usually assumes an equilibrium condition in soil with a constant irrigation rate, so that radionuclide concentration in soil does not change with time and can be analytically solved. This method is currently being used for the dose assessment in the Yucca Mountain project, which requires evaluating radiation dose for a period of 10,000 years. There are several issues associated with the method: (1) time required for the equilibrium condition, (2) validity of constant irrigation rate, (3) agricultural land use for a long period of time, and (4) variation of a radionuclide concentration in water. These issues are evaluated using a numerical method with a simple model built in the GoldSim software. Some key radionuclides, Tc-99, Np-237, Pu-239, and Am-241 are selected as representative radionuclides. The results indicate that the equilibrium model is acceptable except for a radionuclide that requires long time to accumulate in soil and that its concentration in water changes dramatically with time (i.e. a sharp peak). Then the calculated dose for that radionuclide could be overestimated using the current equilibrium method

  17. Evaluation of Long-term Performance of Enhanced Anaerobic Source Zone Bioremediation using mass flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haluska, A.; Cho, J.; Hatzinger, P.; Annable, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    Chlorinated ethene DNAPL source zones in groundwater act as potential long term sources of contamination as they dissolve yielding concentrations well above MCLs, posing an on-going public health risk. Enhanced bioremediation has been applied to treat many source zones with significant promise, but long-term sustainability of this technology has not been thoroughly assessed. This study evaluated the long-term effectiveness of enhanced anaerobic source zone bioremediation at chloroethene contaminated sites to determine if the treatment prevented contaminant rebound and removed NAPL from the source zone. Long-term performance was evaluated based on achieving MCL-based contaminant mass fluxes in parent compound concentrations during different monitoring periods. Groundwater concertation versus time data was compiled for 6-sites and post-remedial contaminant mass flux data was then measured using passive flux meters at wells both within and down-gradient of the source zone. Post-remedial mass flux data was then combined with pre-remedial water quality data to estimate pre-remedial mass flux. This information was used to characterize a DNAPL dissolution source strength function, such as the Power Law Model and the Equilibrium Stream tube model. The six-sites characterized for this study were (1) Former Charleston Air Force Base, Charleston, SC; (2) Dover Air Force Base, Dover, DE; (3) Treasure Island Naval Station, San Francisco, CA; (4) Former Raritan Arsenal, Edison, NJ; (5) Naval Air Station, Jacksonville, FL; and, (6) Former Naval Air Station, Alameda, CA. Contaminant mass fluxes decreased for all the sites by the end of the post-treatment monitoring period and rebound was limited within the source zone. Post remedial source strength function estimates suggest that decreases in contaminant mass flux will continue to occur at these sites, but a mass flux based on MCL levels may never be exceeded. Thus, site clean-up goals should be evaluated as order

  18. Evaluation of 80 Term Neonates with Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selahattin Katar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to review the etiology, clinical - laboratory features and mortality rate of term 80 neonates with perinatal asphyxia admitted to our neonatal unit between January 2005-April 2006. The sex distribution was 24 (%30 female and 56 (% 70 male. The mean gestational age was 38.6±1.3 weeks and weight 3156±561 gram. Of the patients % 46.25 were delivered with a cesarean section and % 53.75 with spontaneous vaginal delivery. The etiologic factors for hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy were % 31.25 force delivery, meconium aspiration, and % 66.25 preeclampsia, eclampsia and diabetic mother’s infant. The distribution of patients according to HIE statging system (Sarnat&Sarnat were as follows: 33 patients (% 41.25 in stage 1, 20 (% 25 in stage 2 and 27 (% 33.75 in stage 3. Seizures were observed in % 33.75 of patients. The mean duration of hospital stay was 10.6±7.7 days for the surviving patients and 4.2±3.4 days for patients who died. Except from central nervous system, liver and kidney were the most involved organs.Perinatal asphyxia remains to be leading cause of neonatal mortality. Hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy is a common newborn problem and cause important mortality and morbidity where low-social –cultural –education conditions with in regions.

  19. Evaluation Plan on In-vessel Source Term in PGSFR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seung Won; Ha, Kwi-Seok; Ahn, Sang June; Lee, Kwi Lim; Jeong, Taekyeong [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    This strategy requires nuclear plants to have features that prevent radionuclide release and multiple barriers to the escape from the plants of any radionuclides that are released despite preventive measures. Considerations of the ability to prevent and mitigate release of radionuclides arise at numerous places in the safety regulations of nuclear plants. The effectiveness of mitigative capabilities in nuclear plants is subject to quantitative analysis. The radionuclide input to these quantitative analyses of effectiveness is the Source Term (ST). All features of the composition, magnitude, timing, chemical form and physical form of accidental radionuclide release constitute the ST. Also, ST is defined as the release of radionuclides from the fuel and coolant into the containment, and subsequently to the environment. The in-vessel STs of PGSFR will be estimated using the methodology of ANL-ART-38 report in additional to 4S methodology. The in-vessel STs are calculated through several phases: The inventory of each radionuclide is calculated by ORIGEN-2 code using the realistic burnup conditions. ST in the release from the core to primary sodium is calculated by using the assumption of ANL methodology. Lastly, ST in the release from the primary sodium to cover gas space is calculated by using equation and experimental materials.

  20. Evaluation Plan on In-vessel Source Term in PGSFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Won; Ha, Kwi-Seok; Ahn, Sang June; Lee, Kwi Lim; Jeong, Taekyeong

    2016-01-01

    This strategy requires nuclear plants to have features that prevent radionuclide release and multiple barriers to the escape from the plants of any radionuclides that are released despite preventive measures. Considerations of the ability to prevent and mitigate release of radionuclides arise at numerous places in the safety regulations of nuclear plants. The effectiveness of mitigative capabilities in nuclear plants is subject to quantitative analysis. The radionuclide input to these quantitative analyses of effectiveness is the Source Term (ST). All features of the composition, magnitude, timing, chemical form and physical form of accidental radionuclide release constitute the ST. Also, ST is defined as the release of radionuclides from the fuel and coolant into the containment, and subsequently to the environment. The in-vessel STs of PGSFR will be estimated using the methodology of ANL-ART-38 report in additional to 4S methodology. The in-vessel STs are calculated through several phases: The inventory of each radionuclide is calculated by ORIGEN-2 code using the realistic burnup conditions. ST in the release from the core to primary sodium is calculated by using the assumption of ANL methodology. Lastly, ST in the release from the primary sodium to cover gas space is calculated by using equation and experimental materials

  1. Evaluating grasses as a long-term energy resource

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christian, D.G.; Riche, A.B.

    2001-07-01

    The work reported here is part of an ongoing project that aims to evaluate the yields of three perennial rhizomatous grasses and determine their suitability as bio-energy crops. The work began in 1993, and the grasses have been monitored continuously since that time. This report covers the period 1999/2000, and includes: the performance of plots of the energy grasses Miscanthus grass, switchgrass and reed canary grass seven years after they were planted; assessment of the yield of 15 genotypes of Miscanthus planted in 1997; monitoring all the species throughout the growing period for the presence of pests, weeds and diseases; measurement of the amount of nitrate leached from below Miscanthus grass; investigating the occurrence of lodging in switchgrass. (Author)

  2. STACE: source term analyses for containment evaluations of transport casks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seager, K.D.; Gianoulakis, S.E.; Barrett, P.R.; Rashid, Y.R.; Reardon, P.C.

    1993-01-01

    STACE evaluates the calculated fuel rod response against failure criteria based on the cladding residual ductility and fracture properties as functions of irradiation and thermal environments. The fuel rod gap inventory contains three forms of releasable RAM: (1) gaseous, e.g., 85 Kr, (2) volatiles, e.g., 134 Cs and 137 Cs, and (3) actinides associated with fuel fines. The quantities of these products are limited to that contained within the fuel-cladding gap region and associated interconnected voids. Cladding pinhole failure will also result in the ejection of about 0.003 percent of the fuel, in the form of fines, into the cask cavity. Significant attenuation of the aerosol concentration in the transport cask can occur, depending upon the residence time of the aerosol in the cask compared with its rate of escape from the cask into the environment. (J.P.N.)

  3. Nonlinear Kalman Filtering in Affine Term Structure Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Dorion, Christian; Jacobs, Kris

    When the relationship between security prices and state variables in dynamic term structure models is nonlinear, existing studies usually linearize this relationship because nonlinear fi…ltering is computationally demanding. We conduct an extensive investigation of this linearization and analyze...... the potential of the unscented Kalman …filter to properly capture nonlinearities. To illustrate the advantages of the unscented Kalman …filter, we analyze the cross section of swap rates, which are relatively simple non-linear instruments, and cap prices, which are highly nonlinear in the states. An extensive...

  4. Evaluation of a method to measure long term cortisol levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manenschijn, Laura; Koper, Jan W; Lamberts, Steven W J; van Rossum, Elisabeth F C

    2011-01-01

    Elevated levels of cortisol are known to induce various symptoms and diseases, e.g. abdominal obesity, type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease. Measuring serum, saliva and urine cortisol is limited to one time point. Measurement of cortisol in scalp hair is a recently developed method to measure long term cortisol levels. The aim of this study was to investigate whether hair cortisol is a feasible parameter to measure cortisol exposure. We collected hair samples of 195 healthy individuals, 9 hypercortisolemic and one hypocortisolemic patient and measured hair cortisol levels. Cortisol was extracted from scalp hair using methanol and cortisol levels were measured using a salivary ELISA kit. Measurement of waist and hip circumferences and blood pressure was performed in 46 healthy subjects. We found a positive correlation between hair cortisol and both waist circumference (r=0.392, p=0.007) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) (r=0.425, p=0.003). No correlations were found between hair cortisol levels and BMI, blood pressure or age. There was no decline in cortisol levels in six consecutive hair segments. Hair cortisol levels were elevated in patients with known hypercortisolism (pcortisol was positively correlated with WHR, suggesting that hair cortisol reflects cortisol exposure at tissue level, which was also supported by elevated hair cortisol levels in hypercortisolemic patients and concordance between hair cortisol levels and clinical disease course. Cortisol levels in hair are slightly influenced by hair treatment but not by natural hair colour, use of hair products, gender or age. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Source term identification in atmospheric modelling via sparse optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Lukas; Branda, Martin; Hamburger, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Inverse modelling plays an important role in identifying the amount of harmful substances released into atmosphere during major incidents such as power plant accidents or volcano eruptions. Another possible application of inverse modelling lies in the monitoring the CO2 emission limits where only observations at certain places are available and the task is to estimate the total releases at given locations. This gives rise to minimizing the discrepancy between the observations and the model predictions. There are two standard ways of solving such problems. In the first one, this discrepancy is regularized by adding additional terms. Such terms may include Tikhonov regularization, distance from a priori information or a smoothing term. The resulting, usually quadratic, problem is then solved via standard optimization solvers. The second approach assumes that the error term has a (normal) distribution and makes use of Bayesian modelling to identify the source term. Instead of following the above-mentioned approaches, we utilize techniques from the field of compressive sensing. Such techniques look for a sparsest solution (solution with the smallest number of nonzeros) of a linear system, where a maximal allowed error term may be added to this system. Even though this field is a developed one with many possible solution techniques, most of them do not consider even the simplest constraints which are naturally present in atmospheric modelling. One of such examples is the nonnegativity of release amounts. We believe that the concept of a sparse solution is natural in both problems of identification of the source location and of the time process of the source release. In the first case, it is usually assumed that there are only few release points and the task is to find them. In the second case, the time window is usually much longer than the duration of the actual release. In both cases, the optimal solution should contain a large amount of zeros, giving rise to the

  6. Individual model evaluation and probabilistic weighting of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1994-01-01

    This note stresses the importance of trying to assess the accuracy of each model individually. Putting a Bayesian probability distribution on a population of models faces conceptual and practical complications, and apparently can come only after the work of evaluating the individual models. Moreover, the primary issue is open-quotes How good is this modelclose quotes? Therefore, the individual evaluations are first in both chronology and importance. They are not easy, but some ideas are given here on how to perform them

  7. Modelling of long term nitrogen retention in surface waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halbfaß, S.; Gebel, M.; Bürger, S.

    2010-12-01

    In order to derive measures to reduce nutrient loadings into waters in Saxony, we calculated nitrogen inputs with the model STOFFBILANZ on the regional scale. Thereby we have to compare our modelling results to measured loadings at the river basin outlets, considering long term nutrient retention in surface waters. The most important mechanism of nitrogen retention is the denitrification in the contact zone of water and sediment, being controlled by hydraulic and micro-biological processes. Retention capacity is derived on the basis of the nutrient spiralling concept, using water residence time (hydraulic aspect) and time-specific N-uptake by microorganisms (biological aspect). Short time related processes of mobilization and immobilization are neglected, because they are of minor importance for the derivation of measures on the regional scale.

  8. ComfortPower - System improvements and long-term evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silversand, Fredrik [Catator AB, Lund (Sweden)

    2011-11-15

    Catator has previously developed a novel heating system abbreviated ComfortPower in a RandD-programme supported by Catator, Swedish Gas Centre (SGC), Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV), Skanska, Nibe and Alfa Laval. The ComfortPower unit comprises a multi fuel reformer system tied to a high-temperature polymer electrolyte fuel cell (HT-PEM) and a heat pump system. Since the residual heat from the fuel cell system can be utilized in a very effective way, it is possible to reach high thermal efficiencies. Indeed, the thermal efficiency in the unit has previously been shown to reach values as high as 175 - 200 % based on the lower heating value of the fuel. In addition to heat, ComfortPower can supply comfort cooling and surplus electricity. This project phase has focused on the following elements: 1. System improvements to further enhance the efficiency with existing fuel cell (HT-PEM). 2. System simplifications (e.g. DC-compressor system) to manage issues with start-up currents. 3. Tests with biogas qualities (various levels of CO{sub 2}) and biogas/air. 4. Long-term test with biogas quality (upgraded biogas). 5. Additional tests with liquid fuels (alcohols and diesel). 6. Map the need for cooling and heating in various applications. 7. Investigate how ComfortPower can reduce the primary energy consumption and reduce the environmental impact. 8. Study the possibility with a SOFC-based system with internal reforming. It was found that the Optiformer technology can be used to derive a suitable reformate gas for the HT-PEM unit from a wide range of fuels. Even if operation with fuel gases is the natural choice in most cases, it is possible also to use alcohols and other liquid fuels (e.g. in Campus applications). The heat pump system was equipped with a 24 V DC-compressor provided by Nibe. The compressor could be directly powered by the accumulator system and start-up currents, harmful to the inverter, could be avoided. Some improvements were made on the

  9. Policy evaluation in terms of relative industrial performance and competitiveness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stigson, P.; Dotzauer, E. [Malardalen Univ., Vasteras (Sweden); Yan, J. [Malardalen Univ., Vasteras (Sweden); KTH, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2008-07-01

    This paper presented a tool that can improve energy and climate policymaking processes through a stronger inclusion of industry expertise while safeguarding industrial competitiveness. The authors suggested that in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the processes, policymakers should recognize the role that industry plays as emission abatement investors. The tool is designed to promote policy design and management processes, facilitating transparency of methodology and subjectivity, consensus of results, rapid simulations of policy processes, and high inter-usability by key decision makers. The authors analyzed how climate and energy policy framework design and management processes can be improved through evaluation processes that focus on carbon dioxide emissions, energy efficiency, and utilization of renewable energy resources. The tool was used in a Swedish case study where industries are known to be relatively energy efficient with low emissions. The study showed that a more diversified and individual policy approach could be favorable, but this would result in increased administrative work for the government and public entities that administer the policy regime. Although this is a negative effect, the authors argued that the challenge of combating climate change will incur additional costs and labor in one way or the other. The authors emphasized that early-action can mitigate the costs. 40 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs.

  10. Evaluation of green house gas emissions models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The objective of the project is to evaluate the GHG emissions models used by transportation agencies and industry leaders. Factors in the vehicle : operating environment that may affect modal emissions, such as, external conditions, : vehicle fleet c...

  11. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna

    2009-01-01

    established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic

  12. Modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallis, I.G.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this working paper is to describe modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations. Ideally, it would be possible to use aquatic population models: (1) to predict changes in the health and well-being of all aquatic populations as a result of changing the composition, amount and location of radionuclide discharges; (2) to compare the effects of steady, fluctuating and accidental releases of radionuclides; and (3) to evaluate the combined impact of the discharge of radionuclides and other wastes, and natural environmental stresses on aquatic populations. At the onset it should be stated that there is no existing model which can achieve this ideal performance. However, modelling skills and techniques are available to develop useful aquatic population models. This paper discusses the considerations involved in developing these models and briefly describes the various types of population models which have been developed to date

  13. Low-level radioactive waste source term model development and testing: Topical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.M.; Kempf, C.R.; Suen, C.J.; Mughabghab, S.M.

    1988-08-01

    The Low-Level Waste Source Term Evaluation Project has the objective to develop a system model capable of predicting radionuclide release rates from a shallow land burial facility. The previous topical report for this project discussed the framework and methodology for developing a system model and divided the problem into four compartments: water flow, container degradation, waste form leaching, and radionuclide transport. Each of these compartments is described by submodels which will be coupled into the system model. From February 1987 to March 1988, computer models have been selected to predict water flow (FEMWATER) and radionuclide transport (FEMWASTE) and separate models have been developed to predict pitting corrosion of steel containers and leaching from porous waste forms contained in corrodible containers. This report discusses each of the models in detail and presents results obtained from applying the models to shallow land burial trenches over a range of expected conditions. 68 refs., 34 figs., 14 tabs

  14. Metrics for Evaluation of Student Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelanek, Radek

    2015-01-01

    Researchers use many different metrics for evaluation of performance of student models. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of commonly used metrics, to discuss properties, advantages, and disadvantages of different metrics, to summarize current practice in educational data mining, and to provide guidance for evaluation of student…

  15. Long-term uncertainty evaluation of pool electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez Lopez, Juan; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy

    2010-01-01

    Pool electricity markets are cleared under the strong assumption of having a perfectly known future; in real life, this is anything but true. The inability to predict the random parameters of the supply and the demand function introduces risk into the market clearing process. Therefore, the main interest is to minimize such risk by means of a trade-off of the mean and the variance of the social cost function. This paper considers random variations on the levels and on the slopes of the quadratic supply and demand functions. Correlation is considered between the corresponding coefficients of the supply and demand curves. By means of the mean-variance Markowitz theory, the risk introduced by these random variations is analyzed. A comprehensive analysis on the effects that the mean-variance Markowitz theory has on the nodal spot prices and on the point-elasticities of the supply and demand curves is made. The non-linear optimization model presented in this paper is validated through a three-, a six-, and a 21-node system. (author)

  16. Long-term uncertainty evaluation of pool electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez Lopez, Juan [Network Analysis Department, Electric Research Institute (Mexico); Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy [Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. West, N2L 3G1, Waterloo, Ontario (Canada)

    2010-02-15

    Pool electricity markets are cleared under the strong assumption of having a perfectly known future; in real life, this is anything but true. The inability to predict the random parameters of the supply and the demand function introduces risk into the market clearing process. Therefore, the main interest is to minimize such risk by means of a trade-off of the mean and the variance of the social cost function. This paper considers random variations on the levels and on the slopes of the quadratic supply and demand functions. Correlation is considered between the corresponding coefficients of the supply and demand curves. By means of the mean-variance Markowitz theory, the risk introduced by these random variations is analyzed. A comprehensive analysis on the effects that the mean-variance Markowitz theory has on the nodal spot prices and on the point-elasticities of the supply and demand curves is made. The non-linear optimization model presented in this paper is validated through a three-, a six-, and a 21-node system. (author)

  17. Study on the system development for evaluating long-term alteration of hydraulic field in Near Field. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okutu, Kazuo; Morikawa, Seiji; Taguchi, Katsunori

    2004-02-01

    For the high performance evaluation of reliability of TRU waste repository, the system development for evaluating long-term alteration in consideration of the changes action of barrier materials of hydraulic field in Near Fields is required. In this research, the system development for evaluating the long-term alteration of hydraulic field in near field was examined. The 'Evidential Support logic' for ensuring the long-term stability of the repository was developed and evaluated. Furthermore, the developed chemical/mechanical alteration action analysis system was verified and improved. The system was coupled for the long-term alteration evaluation analysis. The research results of this year are shown below. 1) A logic tree was constructed for the purpose of supporting the high performance evaluation of reliability of a TRU waste repository. The thesis that the long term safety of the TRU waste repository is preserved was ramified into subsidiary theses until all the final theses were supported by objective evidence. The probability of the subsidiary thesis supporting the upper thesis was established by interviewing specialists. The reliability of the thesis was evaluated by applying present knowledge. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the reliability of the highest thesis to increasing reliability of evidence was investigated. Appropriate targets for experiment and analysis were presented based on the sensitivity of evidence. 2) The object of the hydraulic - chemical analysis was determined from the above-mentioned logic tree. The analysis system was improved to perform the 2D analysis. A user interface was developed to simplify the setting of analysis conditions. The system was demonstrated by comparing the results with the experimental results. Furthermore, the system was applied to the near field problem to fix the condition that the safety of the TRU waste repository is preserved. 3) Both the model of bentonite material and the model of cement material were

  18. A new Expert Finding model based on Term Correlation Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Pornour

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the enormous volume of unstructured information available on the Web and inside organization, finding an answer to the knowledge need in a short time is difficult. For this reason, beside Search Engines which don’t consider users individual characteristics, Recommender systems were created which use user’s previous activities and other individual characteristics to help users find needed knowledge. Recommender systems usage is increasing every day. Expert finder systems also by introducing expert people instead of recommending information to users have provided this facility for users to ask their questions form experts. Having relation with experts not only causes information transition, but also with transferring experiences and inception causes knowledge transition. In this paper we used university professors academic resume as expert people profile and then proposed a new expert finding model that recommends experts to users query. We used Term Correlation Matrix, Vector Space Model and PageRank algorithm and proposed a new hybrid model which outperforms conventional methods. This model can be used in internet environment, organizations and universities that experts have resume dataset.

  19. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Achdou, Yves; Giraud, Pierre-Noel; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis

    2016-01-01

    A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In some cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.

  20. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Achdou, Yves, E-mail: achdou@ljll.univ-paris-diderot.fr [Univ. Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions, UMR 7598, UPMC, CNRS (France); Giraud, Pierre-Noel [CERNA, Mines ParisTech (France); Lasry, Jean-Michel [Univ. Paris Dauphine (France); Lions, Pierre-Louis [Collège de France (France)

    2016-12-15

    A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In some cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.

  1. Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS model for short-term clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiancang Zhuang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which is used for describing the features of short-term clustering of earthquake occurrence, this paper presents some theories and techniques related to evaluating the probability distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time window, where the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitude distribution cannot be directly applied. It is seen that the distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time volume is determined in the longterm by the background seismicity rate and the magnitude distribution of the largest events in each earthquake cluster. The techniques introduced were applied to the seismicity in the Japan region in the period from 1926 to 2009. It was found that the regions most likely to have big earthquakes are along the Tohoku (northeastern Japan Arc and the Kuril Arc, both with much higher probabilities than the offshore Nankai and Tokai regions.

  2. A Linguistic Multigranular Sensory Evaluation Model for Olive Oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Martinez

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation is a process that analyzes elements in order to achieve different objectives such as quality inspection, marketing and other fields in industrial companies. This paper focuses on sensory evaluation where the evaluated items are assessed by a panel of experts according to the knowledge acquired via human senses. In these evaluation processes the information provided by the experts implies uncertainty, vagueness and imprecision. The use of the Fuzzy Linguistic Approach 32 has provided successful results modelling such a type of information. In sensory evaluation it may happen that the panel of experts have more or less degree knowledge of about the evaluated items or indicators. So, it seems suitable that each expert could express their preferences in different linguistic term sets based on their own knowledge. In this paper, we present a sensory evaluation model that manages multigranular linguistic evaluation framework based on a decision analysis scheme. This model will be applied to the sensory evaluation process of Olive Oil.

  3. Large scale Bayesian nuclear data evaluation with consistent model defects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schnabel, G

    2015-01-01

    The aim of nuclear data evaluation is the reliable determination of cross sections and related quantities of the atomic nuclei. To this end, evaluation methods are applied which combine the information of experiments with the results of model calculations. The evaluated observables with their associated uncertainties and correlations are assembled into data sets, which are required for the development of novel nuclear facilities, such as fusion reactors for energy supply, and accelerator driven systems for nuclear waste incineration. The efficiency and safety of such future facilities is dependent on the quality of these data sets and thus also on the reliability of the applied evaluation methods. This work investigated the performance of the majority of available evaluation methods in two scenarios. The study indicated the importance of an essential component in these methods, which is the frequently ignored deficiency of nuclear models. Usually, nuclear models are based on approximations and thus their predictions may deviate from reliable experimental data. As demonstrated in this thesis, the neglect of this possibility in evaluation methods can lead to estimates of observables which are inconsistent with experimental data. Due to this finding, an extension of Bayesian evaluation methods is proposed to take into account the deficiency of the nuclear models. The deficiency is modeled as a random function in terms of a Gaussian process and combined with the model prediction. This novel formulation conserves sum rules and allows to explicitly estimate the magnitude of model deficiency. Both features are missing in available evaluation methods so far. Furthermore, two improvements of existing methods have been developed in the course of this thesis. The first improvement concerns methods relying on Monte Carlo sampling. A Metropolis-Hastings scheme with a specific proposal distribution is suggested, which proved to be more efficient in the studied scenarios than the

  4. Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai

    2016-05-01

    Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Radiological consequence evaluation of DBAs with alternative source term method for a Chinese PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, J.X.; Cao, X.W.; Tong, L.L.; Huang, G.F.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Radiological consequence evaluation of DBAs with alternative source term method for a Chinese 900 MWe PWR has been investigated. ► Six typical DBA sequences are analyzed. ► The doses of control room, EAB and outer boundary of LPZ are acceptable. ► The differences between AST method and TID-14844 method are investigated. - Abstract: Since a large amount of fission products may releases into the environment, during the accident progression in nuclear power plants (NPPs), which is a potential hazard to public risk, the radiological consequence should be evaluated for alleviating the hazard. In most Chinese NPPs the method of TID-14844, in which the whole body and thyroid dose criteria is employed as dose criteria, is currently adopted to evaluate the radiological consequences for design-basis accidents (DBAs), but, due to the total effective dose equivalent is employed as dose criteria in alternative radiological source terms (AST) method, it is necessary to evaluate the radiological consequences for DBAs with AST method and to discuss the difference between two methods. By using an integral safety analysis code, an analytical model of the 900 MWe pressurized water reactor (PWR) is built and the radiological consequences in DBAs at control room (CR), exclusion area boundary (EAB), low population zone (LPZ) are analyzed, which includes LOCA and non-LOCA DBAs, such as fuel handling accident (FHA), rod ejection accident (REA), main steam line break (MSLB), steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), locked rotor accident (LRA) by using the guidance of the RG 1.183. The results show that the doses in CR, EAB and LPZ are acceptable compared with dose criteria in RG 1.183 and the differences between AST method and TID-14844 method are also discussed.

  6. Evaluation of the long-term energy analysis program used for the 1978 EIA Administrator's Report to Congress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peelle, R. W.; Weisbin, C. R.; Alsmiller, Jr., R. G.

    1981-10-01

    An evaluation of the Long-Term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP), a computer model of the energy portion of the US economy that was used for the 1995-2020 projections in its 1978 Annual Report to Congress, is presented. An overview of the 1978 version, LEAP Model 22C, is followed by an analysis of the important results needed by its users. The model is then evaluated on the basis of: (1) the adequacy of its documentation; (2) the local experience in operating the model; (3) the adequacy of the numerical techniques used; (4) the soundness of the economic and technical foundations of the model equations; and (5) the degree to which the computer program has been verified. To show which parameters strongly influence the results and to approach the question of whether the model can project important results with sufficient accuracy to support qualitative conclusions, the numerical sensitivities of some important results to model input parameters are described. The input data are categorized and discussed, and uncertainties are given for some parameters as examples. From this background and from the relation of LEAP to other available approaches for long-term energy modeling, an overall evaluation is given of the model's suitability for use by the EIA.

  7. Discretization of the Joule heating term for plasma discharge fluid models in unstructured meshes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deconinck, T.; Mahadevan, S.; Raja, L.L.

    2009-01-01

    The fluid (continuum) approach is commonly used for simulation of plasma phenomena in electrical discharges at moderate to high pressures (>10's mTorr). The description comprises governing equations for charged and neutral species transport and energy equations for electrons and the heavy species, coupled to equations for the electromagnetic fields. The coupling of energy from the electrostatic field to the plasma species is modeled by the Joule heating term which appears in the electron and heavy species (ion) energy equations. Proper numerical discretization of this term is necessary for accurate description of discharge energetics; however, discretization of this term poses a special problem in the case of unstructured meshes owing to the arbitrary orientation of the faces enclosing each cell. We propose a method for the numerical discretization of the Joule heating term using a cell-centered finite volume approach on unstructured meshes with closed convex cells. The Joule heating term is computed by evaluating both the electric field and the species flux at the cell center. The dot product of these two vector quantities is computed to obtain the Joule heating source term. We compare two methods to evaluate the species flux at the cell center. One is based on reconstructing the fluxes at the cell centers from the fluxes at the face centers. The other recomputes the flux at the cell center using the common drift-diffusion approximation. The reconstructed flux scheme is the most stable method and yields reasonably accurate results on coarse meshes.

  8. An evaluation of BPMN modeling tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Z.; Reijers, H.A.; Dijkman, R.M.; Mendling, J.; Weidlich, M.

    2010-01-01

    Various BPMN modeling tools are available and it is close to impossible to understand their functional differences without simply trying them out. This paper presents an evaluation framework and presents the outcomes of its application to a set of five BPMN modeling tools. We report on various

  9. Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiqing Kang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

  10. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  11. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Innovazione, Universita del Salento, Via per Monteroni, 73100 Lecce (Italy)

    2011-04-15

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  12. Evaluation of constitutive models for crushed salt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callahan, G.D.; Loken, M.C.; Hurtado, L.D.; Hansen, F.D.

    1996-01-01

    Three constitutive models are recommended as candidates for describing the deformation of crushed salt. These models are generalized to three-dimensional states of stress to include the effects of mean and deviatoric stress and modified to include effects of temperature, grain size, and moisture content. A database including hydrostatic consolidation and shear consolidation tests conducted on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and southeastern New Mexico salt is used to determine material parameters for the models. To evaluate the capability of the models, parameter values obtained from fitting the complete database are used to predict the individual tests. Finite element calculations of a WIPP shaft with emplaced crushed salt demonstrate the model predictions

  13. Modeling for Green Supply Chain Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elham Falatoonitoosi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Green supply chain management (GSCM has become a practical approach to develop environmental performance. Under strict regulations and stakeholder pressures, enterprises need to enhance and improve GSCM practices, which are influenced by both traditional and green factors. This study developed a causal evaluation model to guide selection of qualified suppliers by prioritizing various criteria and mapping causal relationships to find effective criteria to improve green supply chain. The aim of the case study was to model and examine the influential and important main GSCM practices, namely, green logistics, organizational performance, green organizational activities, environmental protection, and green supplier evaluation. In the case study, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory technique is applied to test the developed model. The result of the case study shows only “green supplier evaluation” and “green organizational activities” criteria of the model are in the cause group and the other criteria are in the effect group.

  14. Modeling of long-term energy system of Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gotoh, Yoshitaka; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro

    1999-07-01

    In order to analyze the future potential of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the long-term energy system of Japan was modeled following the framework of the MARKAL model, and the database of energy technology characteristics was developed. First, a reference energy system was built by incorporating all important energy sources and technologies that will be available until the year 2050. This system consists of 25 primary energy sources, 33 technologies for electric power generation and/or low temperature heat production, 97 technologies for energy transformation, storage, and distribution, and 170 end-use technologies. Second, the database was developed for the characteristics of individual technologies in the system. The characteristic data consists of input and output of energy carriers, efficiency, availability, lifetime, investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, CO 2 emission coefficient, and others. Since a large number of technologies are included in the system, this report focuses modeling of a supply side, and involves the database of energy technologies other than for end-use purposes. (author)

  15. Evaluation-Function-based Model-free Adaptive Fuzzy Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agus Naba

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Designs of adaptive fuzzy controllers (AFC are commonly based on the Lyapunov approach, which requires a known model of the controlled plant. They need to consider a Lyapunov function candidate as an evaluation function to be minimized. In this study these drawbacks were handled by designing a model-free adaptive fuzzy controller (MFAFC using an approximate evaluation function defined in terms of the current state, the next state, and the control action. MFAFC considers the approximate evaluation function as an evaluative control performance measure similar to the state-action value function in reinforcement learning. The simulation results of applying MFAFC to the inverted pendulum benchmark verified the proposed scheme’s efficacy.

  16. Conceptual modelling of human resource evaluation process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negoiţă Doina Olivia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking into account the highly diverse tasks which employees have to fulfil due to complex requirements of nowadays consumers, the human resource within an enterprise has become a strategic element for developing and exploiting products which meet the market expectations. Therefore, organizations encounter difficulties when approaching the human resource evaluation process. Hence, the aim of the current paper is to design a conceptual model of the aforementioned process, which allows the enterprises to develop a specific methodology. In order to design the conceptual model, Business Process Modelling instruments were employed - Adonis Community Edition Business Process Management Toolkit using the ADONIS BPMS Notation. The conceptual model was developed based on an in-depth secondary research regarding the human resource evaluation process. The proposed conceptual model represents a generic workflow (sequential and/ or simultaneously activities, which can be extended considering the enterprise’s needs regarding their requirements when conducting a human resource evaluation process. Enterprises can benefit from using software instruments for business process modelling as they enable process analysis and evaluation (predefined / specific queries and also model optimization (simulations.

  17. Ability of the MACRO Model to Predict Long-Term Leaching of Metribuzin and Diketometribuzin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjær, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine

    2009-01-01

    In a regulatory context, numerical models are increasingly employed to quantify leaching of pesticides and their metabolites. Although the ability of these models to accurately simulate leaching of pesticides has been evaluated, little is known about their ability to accurately simulate long...... alternative kinetics (a two-site approach), we captured the observed leaching scenario, thus underlining the necessity of accounting for the long-term sorption and dissipation characteristics when using models to predict the risk of groundwater contamination.......-term leaching of metabolites. A Danish study on the dissipation and sorption of metribuzin, involving both monitoring and batch experiments, concluded that desorption and degradation of metribuzin and leaching of its primary metabolite diketometribuzin continued for 5-6 years after application, posing a risk...

  18. Human Thermal Model Evaluation Using the JSC Human Thermal Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bue, Grant; Makinen, Janice; Cognata, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Human thermal modeling has considerable long term utility to human space flight. Such models provide a tool to predict crew survivability in support of vehicle design and to evaluate crew response in untested space environments. It is to the benefit of any such model not only to collect relevant experimental data to correlate it against, but also to maintain an experimental standard or benchmark for future development in a readily and rapidly searchable and software accessible format. The Human thermal database project is intended to do just so; to collect relevant data from literature and experimentation and to store the data in a database structure for immediate and future use as a benchmark to judge human thermal models against, in identifying model strengths and weakness, to support model development and improve correlation, and to statistically quantify a model s predictive quality. The human thermal database developed at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is intended to evaluate a set of widely used human thermal models. This set includes the Wissler human thermal model, a model that has been widely used to predict the human thermoregulatory response to a variety of cold and hot environments. These models are statistically compared to the current database, which contains experiments of human subjects primarily in air from a literature survey ranging between 1953 and 2004 and from a suited experiment recently performed by the authors, for a quantitative study of relative strength and predictive quality of the models.

  19. A website evaluation model by integration of previous evaluation models using a quantitative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Moeini

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Regarding the ecommerce growth, websites play an essential role in business success. Therefore, many authors have offered website evaluation models since 1995. Although, the multiplicity and diversity of evaluation models make it difficult to integrate them into a single comprehensive model. In this paper a quantitative method has been used to integrate previous models into a comprehensive model that is compatible with them. In this approach the researcher judgment has no role in integration of models and the new model takes its validity from 93 previous models and systematic quantitative approach.

  20. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P.

    2012-09-01

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  1. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P. [Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2012-09-15

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  2. Modelling the long-term vertical dynamics of salt marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoccarato, Claudia; Teatini, Pietro

    2017-04-01

    Salt marshes are vulnerable environments hosting complex interactions between physical and biological processes with a strong influence on the dynamics of the marsh evolution. The estimation and prediction of the elevation of a salt-marsh platform is crucial to forecast the marsh growth or regression under different scenarios considering, for example, the potential climate changes. The long-term vertical dynamics of a salt marsh is predicted with the aid of an original finite-element (FE) numerical model accounting for the marsh accretion and compaction and for the variation rates of the relative sea level rise, i.e., land subsidence of the marsh basement and eustatic rise of the sea level. The accretion term considers the vertical sedimentation of organic and inorganic material over the marsh surface, whereas the compaction reflects the progressive consolidation of the porous medium under the increasing load of the overlying younger deposits. The modelling approach is based on a 2D groundwater flow simulator, which provides the pressure evolution within a compacting/accreting vertical cross-section of the marsh assuming that the groundwater flow obeys the relative Darcy's law, coupled to a 1D vertical geomechanical module following Terzaghi's principle of effective intergranular stress. Soil porosity, permeability, and compressibility may vary with the effective intergranular stress according to empirically based relationships. The model also takes into account the geometric non-linearity arising from the consideration of large solid grain movements by using a Lagrangian approach with an adaptive FE mesh. The element geometry changes in time to follow the deposit consolidation and the element number increases in time to follow the sedimentation of new material. The numerical model is tested on different realistic configurations considering the influence of (i) the spatial distribution of the sedimentation rate in relation to the distance from the marsh margin, (ii

  3. Study on the system development for evaluating long-term alteration of hydraulic field in near field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okutu, Kazuo; Morikawa, Seiji; Takamura, Hisashi

    2002-02-01

    For the high performance evaluation of reliability of TRU waste repository, the system development for evaluating long-term alteration in consideration of the changes action of barrier materials of hydraulic field in Near Field is required. In this research, system development for evaluating long-term alteration of hydraulic field in Near Field was examined. Examination of the basic specification of chemical/dynamic alteration action analysis system used as the composition element of this system and a whole system were performed. The research result of this year is shown below. 1) The system by which the chemical changes happened by Near Field as influence of the exudation liquid from cement material are evaluated was examined. In this year, document investigation about the various processes about chemical alteration and extraction of a choice, presentation of the uncertainty about a model or data, preliminary modeling, a simple analysis tool creation and sensitivity analysis, extraction of the process which should be taken into consideration in a system valuation modeling and a phenomenon analysis model, and a corresponding mathematics model, optimization of the software composition for development of a system valuation modeling, the exercise by the preliminary system analysis model, the experiment plan for the corroboration of a model were shown. 2) In consideration of change of the physical characteristic accompanying chemical alteration of bentonite material and cement material, the system by which dynamic changes action of repository is evaluated was examined. In this year, arrangement of the dynamics action of repository for long-term were shown. Extraction of a phenomenon made applicable to evaluation was shown. And the dynamic models were investigated and the prototype of the dynamics model that can take into consideration the characteristic of bentonite material was shown. And the basic composition of a dynamic changes action analysis system was shown. 3

  4. Monitoring and modeling of long-term settlements of an experimental landfill in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, Gustavo Ferreira; Catapreta, Cícero Antônio Antunes

    2013-02-01

    Settlement evaluation in sanitary landfills is a complex process, due to the waste heterogeneity, time-varying properties and influencing factors and mechanisms, such as mechanical compression due to load application and creep, and physical-chemical and biological processes caused by the wastes decomposition. Many empirical models for the analysis of long-term settlement in landfills are reported in the literature. This paper presents the results of a settlement monitoring program carried out during 6 years in Belo Horizonte experimental landfill. Different sets of field data were used to calibrate three long-term settlement prediction models (rheological, hyperbolic and composite). The parameters obtained in the calibration were used to predict the settlements and to compare with actual field data. During the monitoring period of 6 years, significant vertical strains were observed (of up to 31%) in relation to the initial height of the experimental landfill. The results for the long-term settlement prediction obtained by the hyperbolic and rheological models significantly underestimate the settlements, regardless the period of data used in the calibration. The best fits were obtained with the composite model, except when 1 year field data were used in the calibration. The results of the composite model indicate settlements stabilization at larger times and with larger final settlements when compared to the hyperbolic and rheological models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Multi-criteria evaluation of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Clark, Martyn; Weerts, Albrecht; Hill, Mary; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Over the last years, there is a tendency in the hydrological community to move from the simple conceptual models towards more complex, physically/process-based hydrological models. This is because conceptual models often fail to simulate the dynamics of the observations. However, there is little agreement on how much complexity needs to be considered within the complex process-based models. One way to proceed to is to improve understanding of what is important and unimportant in the models considered. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate structural model adequacy using alternative conceptual and process-based models of hydrological systems, with an emphasis on understanding how model complexity relates to observed hydrological processes. Some of the models require considerable execution time and the computationally frugal sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification methods are well-suited to providing important insights for models with lengthy execution times. The current experiment evaluates two version of the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which both enable running model inter-comparison experiments. One supports computationally efficient conceptual models, and the second supports more-process-based models that tend to have longer execution times. The conceptual FUSE combines components of 4 existing conceptual hydrological models. The process-based framework consists of different forms of Richard's equations, numerical solutions, groundwater parameterizations and hydraulic conductivity distribution. The hydrological analysis of the model processes has evolved from focusing only on simulated runoff (final model output), to also including other criteria such as soil moisture and groundwater levels. Parameter importance and associated structural importance are evaluated using different types of sensitivity analyses techniques, making use of both robust global methods (e.g. Sobol') as well as several

  6. Long-term reliability evaluation of nuclear containments with tendon force degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sang-Hyo; Choi, Moon-Seock; Joung, Jung-Yeun; Kim, Kun-Soo

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A probabilistic model on long-term degradation of tendon force is developed. • By using the model, we performed reliability evaluation of nuclear containment. • The analysis is also performed for the case with the strict maintenance programme. • We showed how to satisfy the target safety in the containments facing life extension. - Abstract: The long-term reliability of nuclear containment is important for operating nuclear power plants. In particular, long-term reliability should be clarified when the service life of nuclear containment is being extended. This study focuses not only on determining the reliability of nuclear containment but also presenting the reliability improvement by strengthening the containment itself or by running a strict maintenance programme. The degradation characteristics of tendon force are estimated from the data recorded during in-service inspection of containments. A reliability analysis is conducted for a limit state of through-wall cracking, which is conservative, but most crucial limit state. The results of this analysis indicate that reliability is the lowest at 3/4 height of the containment wall. Therefore, this location is the most vulnerable for the specific limit state considered in this analysis. Furthermore, changes in structural reliability owing to an increase in the number of inspecting tendons are analysed for verifying the effect of the maintenance program's intensity on expected containment reliability. In the last part of this study, an example of obtaining target reliability of nuclear containment by strengthening its structural resistance is presented. A case study is conducted for exemplifying the effect of strengthening work on containment reliability, especially during extended service life

  7. GATEWAY Report Brief: SSL Demonstration: Long-Term Evaluation of Indoor Field Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2017-02-28

    Report brief summarizing a GATEWAY program evaluation of the long-term performance characteristics (chromaticity change, maintained illuminance, and operations and maintenance) of LED lighting systems in four field installations previously documented in separate DOE GATEWAY reports.

  8. GATEWAY Demonstrations: Long-Term Evaluation of SSL Field Performance in Select Interior Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, Tess E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Davis, Robert G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wilkerson, Andrea M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2017-02-28

    The GATEWAY program evaluated the long-term performance characteristics (chromaticity change, maintained illuminance, and operations and maintenance) of LED lighting systems in four field installations previously documented in separate DOE GATEWAY reports.

  9. Long-term evaluation of treatment of chronic, therapeutically refractory tinnitus by neurostimulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staal, M. J.; Holm, A. F.; Mooij, J. J. A.; Albers, F. W. J.; Bartels, H.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Long-term evaluation of treatment of chronic, therapeutically refractory tinnitus by means of chronic electrical stimulation of the vestibulocochlear nerve. Patients: Inclusion criteria were severe, chronic, therapeutically refractory, unilateral tinnitus and severe hearing loss at the

  10. Saphire models and software for ASP evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) over the three years has created 75 plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models using the SAPHIRE suite of PRA codes. Along with the new models, the INEL has also developed a new module for SAPHIRE which is tailored specifically to the unique needs of ASP evaluations. These models and software will be the next generation of risk tools for the evaluation of accident precursors by both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and the Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD). This paper presents an overview of the models and software. Key characteristics include: (1) classification of the plant models according to plant response with a unique set of event trees for each plant class, (2) plant-specific fault trees using supercomponents, (3) generation and retention of all system and sequence cutsets, (4) full flexibility in modifying logic, regenerating cutsets, and requantifying results, and (5) user interface for streamlined evaluation of ASP events. Future plans for the ASP models is also presented

  11. A framework for evaluating forest landscape model predictions using empirical data and knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Qia. Wang

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of forest landscape model (FLM) predictions is indispensable to establish the credibility of predictions. We present a framework that evaluates short- and long-term FLM predictions at site and landscape scales. Site-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing raster cell-level predictions with inventory plot data whereas landscape-scale evaluation is...

  12. REMI and ROUSE: Quantitative Models for Long-Term and Short-Term Priming in Perceptual Identification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.J. Wagenmakers (Eric-Jan); R. Zeelenberg (René); D.E. Huber (David); J.G.W. Raaijmakers (Jeroen)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe REM model originally developed for recognition memory (Shiffrin & Steyvers, 1997) has recently been extended to implicit memory phenomena observed during threshold identification of words. We discuss two REM models based on Bayesian principles: a model for long-term priming (REMI;

  13. EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph H. Hartman

    1999-09-01

    Great Plains, northern hemisphere, and elsewhere. Finally these data can be integrated into a history of climate change and predictive climate models. This is not a small undertaking. The goals of researchers and the methods used vary considerably. The primary task of this project was literature research to (1) evaluate existing methodologies used in geologic climate change studies and evidence for short-term cycles produced by these methodologies and (2) evaluate late Holocene climate patterns and their interpretations.

  14. Long-term strategic asset allocation: An out-of-sample evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diris, B.F.; Palm, F.C.; Schotman, P.C.

    We evaluate the out-of-sample performance of a long-term investor who follows an optimized dynamic trading strategy. Although the dynamic strategy is able to benefit from predictability out-of-sample, a short-term investor using a single-period market timing strategy would have realized an almost

  15. Long-term outcome of eosinophilic fasciitis : A cross-sectional evaluation of 35 patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, JS; Thurlings, Rogier M; Kievit, Wietske; Seyger, Marieke M B; Radstake, Timothy R D; de Jong, Elke M G J

    BACKGROUND: Eosinophilic fasciitis (EF) is a connective tissue disease with an unknown long-term course. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate presence and determinants of residual disease damage in patients with EF after long-term follow-up. METHODS: Patients with biopsy-proven EF were included for this

  16. Long-term outcome of eosinophilic fasciitis: A cross-sectional evaluation of 35 patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, J.S.; Thurlings, R.M.; Kievit, W.; Seyger, M.M.B.; Radstake, T.R.D.J.; Jong, E.M.G.J. de

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Eosinophilic fasciitis (EF) is a connective tissue disease with an unknown long-term course. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate presence and determinants of residual disease damage in patients with EF after long-term follow-up. METHODS: Patients with biopsy-proven EF were included for this

  17. Tapering off benzodiazepines in long-term users : an economic evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Voshaar, Richard C; Krabbe, Paul F M; Gorgels, Wim J M J; Adang, Eddy M M; van Balkom, Anton J L M; van de Lisdonk, Eloy H; Zitman, Frans G

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Discontinuation of benzodiazepine usage has never been evaluated in economic terms. This study aimed to compare the relative costs and outcomes of tapering off long-term benzodiazepine use combined with group cognitive behavioural therapy (TO+CBT), tapering off alone (TOA) and usual

  18. Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Collier

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift.

    A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE.

    Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms

  19. Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Collier

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift. A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE. Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms

  20. Short-Term Power Plant GHG Emissions Forecasting Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidovic, D.

    2016-01-01

    In 2010, the share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power generation in the total emissions at the global level was about 25 percent. From January 1st, 2013 Croatian facilities have been involved in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The share of the ETS sector in total GHG emissions in Croatia in 2012 was about 30 percent, where power plants and heat generation facilities contributed to almost 50 percent. Since 2013 power plants are obliged to purchase all emission allowances. The paper describes the short-term climate forecasting model of greenhouse gas emissions from power plants while covering the daily load diagram of the system. Forecasting is done on an hourly domain typically for one day, it is possible and more days ahead. Forecasting GHG emissions in this way would enable power plant operators to purchase additional or sell surplus allowances on the market at the time. Example that describes the operation of the above mentioned forecasting model is given at the end of the paper.(author).

  1. Modeling Energy and Development : An Evaluation of Models and Concepts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijven, Bas van; Urban, Frauke; Benders, René M.J.; Moll, Henri C.; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der; Vries, Bert de; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2008-01-01

    Most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries focusing primarily oil issues that are important in industrialized countries. Evaluation of the results for Asia of the IPCC/SRES models shows that broad concepts of energy and development. the energy ladder and the

  2. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  3. Model and economic uncertainties in balancing short-term and long-term objectives in water-flooding optimization.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siraj, M.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2015-01-01

    Model-based optimization of oil production has a significant scope to increase ultimate recovery or financial life-cycle performance. The Net Present Value (NPV) objective in such an optimization framework, because of its nature, focuses on the long-term gains while the short-term production is not

  4. Constraints on the affinity term for modeling long-term glass dissolution rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourcier, W.L.; Carroll, S.A.; Phillips, B.L.

    1993-11-01

    Predictions of long-term glass dissolution rates are highly dependent on the form of the affinity term in the rate expression. Analysis of the quantitative effect of saturation state on glass dissolution rate for CSG glass (a simple analog of SRL-165 glass), shows that a simple (1-Q/K) affinity term does not match experimental results. Our data at 100 degree C show that the data is better fit by an affinity term having the form (1 - (Q/K) 1 /σ) where σ = 10

  5. Conceptual model for deriving the repository source term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, D.H.; Apted, M.J.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Van Luik, A.E.; Williford, R.E.; Doctor, P.G.; Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA; Roy F. Weston, Inc./Rogers and Assoc. Engineering Corp., Rockville, MD)

    1984-01-01

    Part of a strategy for evaluating the compliance of geologic repositories with Federal regulations is a modeling approach that would provide realistic release estimates for a particular configuration of the engineered-barrier system. The objective is to avoid worst-case bounding assumptions that are physically impossible or excessively conservative and to obtain probabilitistic estimates of (1) the penetration time for metal barriers and (2) radionuclide-release rates for individually simulated waste packages after penetration has occurred. The conceptual model described in this paper will assume that release rates are explicitly related to such time-dependent processes as mass transfer, dissolution and precipitation, radionuclide decay, and variations in the geochemical environment. The conceptual model will take into account the reduction in the rates of waste-form dissolution and metal corrosion due to a buildup of chemical reaction products. The sorptive properties of the metal-barrier corrosion products in proximity to the waste form surface will also be included. Cumulative released from the engineered-barrier system will be calculated by summing the releases from a probabilistically generated population of individual waste packages. 14 refs., 7 figs

  6. Conceptual model for deriving the repository source term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, D.H.; Apted, M.J.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Doctor, P.G.; Williford, R.E.; Van Luik, A.E.

    1984-11-01

    Part of a strategy for evaluating the compliance of geologic repositories with federal regulations is a modeling approach that would provide realistic release estimates for a particular configuration of the engineered-barrier system. The objective is to avoid worst-case bounding assumptions that are physically impossible or excessively conservative and to obtain probabilistic estimates of (1) the penetration time for metal barriers and (2) radionuclide-release rates for individually simulated waste packages after penetration has occurred. The conceptual model described in this paper will assume that release rates are explicitly related to such time-dependent processes as mass transfer, dissolution and precipitation, radionuclide decay, and variations in the geochemical environment. The conceptual model will take into account the reduction in the rates of waste-form dissolution and metal corrosion due to a buildup of chemical reaction products. The sorptive properties of the metal-barrier corrosion products in proximity to the waste form surface will also be included. Cumulative releases from the engineered-barrier system will be calculated by summing the releases from a probabilistically generated population of individual waste packages. 14 refs., 7 figs

  7. CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF EVALUATION MODEL LOMCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Luis Bernal Agudo

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation model that the LOMCE projects sinks its roots into the neoliberal beliefs, reflecting a specific way of understanding the world. What matters is not the process but the results, being the evaluation the center of the education-learning processes. It presents an evil planning, since the theory that justifies the model doesn’t specify upon coherent proposals, where there is an excessive worry for excellence and diversity is left out. A comprehensive way of understanding education should be recovered.

  8. A modelling study of long term green roof retention performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stovin, Virginia; Poë, Simon; Berretta, Christian

    2013-12-15

    This paper outlines the development of a conceptual hydrological flux model for the long term continuous simulation of runoff and drought risk for green roof systems. A green roof's retention capacity depends upon its physical configuration, but it is also strongly influenced by local climatic controls, including the rainfall characteristics and the restoration of retention capacity associated with evapotranspiration during dry weather periods. The model includes a function that links evapotranspiration rates to substrate moisture content, and is validated against observed runoff data. The model's application to typical extensive green roof configurations is demonstrated with reference to four UK locations characterised by contrasting climatic regimes, using 30-year rainfall time-series inputs at hourly simulation time steps. It is shown that retention performance is dependent upon local climatic conditions. Volumetric retention ranges from 0.19 (cool, wet climate) to 0.59 (warm, dry climate). Per event retention is also considered, and it is demonstrated that retention performance decreases significantly when high return period events are considered in isolation. For example, in Sheffield the median per-event retention is 1.00 (many small events), but the median retention for events exceeding a 1 in 1 yr return period threshold is only 0.10. The simulation tool also provides useful information about the likelihood of drought periods, for which irrigation may be required. A sensitivity study suggests that green roofs with reduced moisture-holding capacity and/or low evapotranspiration rates will tend to offer reduced levels of retention, whilst high moisture-holding capacity and low evapotranspiration rates offer the strongest drought resistance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Study on team evaluation. Team process model for team evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasou Kunihide; Ebisu, Mitsuhiro; Hirose, Ayako

    2004-01-01

    Several studies have been done to evaluate or improve team performance in nuclear and aviation industries. Crew resource management is the typical example. In addition, team evaluation recently gathers interests in other teams of lawyers, medical staff, accountants, psychiatrics, executive, etc. However, the most evaluation methods focus on the results of team behavior that can be observed through training or actual business situations. What is expected team is not only resolving problems but also training younger members being destined to lead the next generation. Therefore, the authors set the final goal of this study establishing a series of methods to evaluate and improve teams inclusively such as decision making, motivation, staffing, etc. As the first step, this study develops team process model describing viewpoints for the evaluation. The team process is defined as some kinds of power that activate or inactivate competency of individuals that is the components of team's competency. To find the team process, the authors discussed the merits of team behavior with the experienced training instructors and shift supervisors of nuclear/thermal power plants. The discussion finds four team merits and many components to realize those team merits. Classifying those components into eight groups of team processes such as 'Orientation', 'Decision Making', 'Power and Responsibility', 'Workload Management', 'Professional Trust', 'Motivation', 'Training' and 'staffing', the authors propose Team Process Model with two to four sub processes in each team process. In the future, the authors will develop methods to evaluate some of the team processes for nuclear/thermal power plant operation teams. (author)

  10. Evaluation of long-term geological and climatic changes in the Spanish programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, T.; Ortiz, J.E.; Cortes, A.; Delgado, A.

    2004-01-01

    The Bio-molecular Stratigraphy Laboratory of the Madrid School of Mines has been largely involved in the analysis of long-term paleo-environmental changes in the Iberian Peninsula during the Quaternary. Some of the research projects were UE funded: Paleo-climatological Revision of Climate Evolution in Western Mediterranean Region. Evaluation of Altered Scenarios, Evidence from Quaternary Infill Paleo-hydrogeology, Sequential Biosphere modelling function of Climate evolution models; Paleo-hydrogeological Data Analysis and Model Testing. Other projects were funded by the National Company for Radioactive Waste Management (ENRESA) and the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN): 'Paleo-climate reconstruction from Middle Pleistocene times through dating and isotopic analysis of tufa deposits'; 'Paleo-environmental evolution of the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula'; 'Paleo-climate'. On a minor scale the laboratory was also involved in the study of some argillaceous media: 'Organic Geochemistry of some deep Spanish argillaceous formations' and 'Effects of climatic change on the argillaceous series of the Duero and Ebro basins'. Here we will present some of the results obtained from tufa deposits analysis and paleo-environmental information from the Guadix-Baza Basin composite-stratigraphical-type-section study. (authors)

  11. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

  12. Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

    2005-12-15

    Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

  13. Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

    2005-01-01

    Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

  14. Evaluation of burst pressure prediction models for line pipes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Xian-Kui; Leis, Brian N.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate prediction of burst pressure plays a central role in engineering design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. Theoretical and empirical solutions for such prediction are evaluated in this paper relative to a burst pressure database comprising more than 100 tests covering a variety of pipeline steel grades and pipe sizes. Solutions considered include three based on plasticity theory for the end-capped, thin-walled, defect-free line pipe subjected to internal pressure in terms of the Tresca, von Mises, and ZL (or Zhu-Leis) criteria, one based on a cylindrical instability stress (CIS) concept, and a large group of analytical and empirical models previously evaluated by Law and Bowie (International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 84, 2007: 487–492). It is found that these models can be categorized into either a Tresca-family or a von Mises-family of solutions, except for those due to Margetson and Zhu-Leis models. The viability of predictions is measured via statistical analyses in terms of a mean error and its standard deviation. Consistent with an independent parallel evaluation using another large database, the Zhu-Leis solution is found best for predicting burst pressure, including consideration of strain hardening effects, while the Tresca strength solutions including Barlow, Maximum shear stress, Turner, and the ASME boiler code provide reasonably good predictions for the class of line-pipe steels with intermediate strain hardening response. - Highlights: ► This paper evaluates different burst pressure prediction models for line pipes. ► The existing models are categorized into two major groups of Tresca and von Mises solutions. ► Prediction quality of each model is assessed statistically using a large full-scale burst test database. ► The Zhu-Leis solution is identified as the best predictive model.

  15. Evaluation of burst pressure prediction models for line pipes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Xian-Kui, E-mail: zhux@battelle.org [Battelle Memorial Institute, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, OH 43201 (United States); Leis, Brian N. [Battelle Memorial Institute, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, OH 43201 (United States)

    2012-01-15

    Accurate prediction of burst pressure plays a central role in engineering design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. Theoretical and empirical solutions for such prediction are evaluated in this paper relative to a burst pressure database comprising more than 100 tests covering a variety of pipeline steel grades and pipe sizes. Solutions considered include three based on plasticity theory for the end-capped, thin-walled, defect-free line pipe subjected to internal pressure in terms of the Tresca, von Mises, and ZL (or Zhu-Leis) criteria, one based on a cylindrical instability stress (CIS) concept, and a large group of analytical and empirical models previously evaluated by Law and Bowie (International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 84, 2007: 487-492). It is found that these models can be categorized into either a Tresca-family or a von Mises-family of solutions, except for those due to Margetson and Zhu-Leis models. The viability of predictions is measured via statistical analyses in terms of a mean error and its standard deviation. Consistent with an independent parallel evaluation using another large database, the Zhu-Leis solution is found best for predicting burst pressure, including consideration of strain hardening effects, while the Tresca strength solutions including Barlow, Maximum shear stress, Turner, and the ASME boiler code provide reasonably good predictions for the class of line-pipe steels with intermediate strain hardening response. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This paper evaluates different burst pressure prediction models for line pipes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The existing models are categorized into two major groups of Tresca and von Mises solutions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Prediction quality of each model is assessed statistically using a large full-scale burst test database. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The Zhu-Leis solution is identified as the best predictive model.

  16. Evaluation of potential crushed-salt constitutive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callahan, G.D.; Loken, M.C.; Sambeek, L.L. Van; Chen, R.; Pfeifle, T.W.; Nieland, J.D.; Hansen, F.D.

    1995-12-01

    Constitutive models describing the deformation of crushed salt are presented in this report. Ten constitutive models with potential to describe the phenomenological and micromechanical processes for crushed salt were selected from a literature search. Three of these ten constitutive models, termed Sjaardema-Krieg, Zeuch, and Spiers models, were adopted as candidate constitutive models. The candidate constitutive models were generalized in a consistent manner to three-dimensional states of stress and modified to include the effects of temperature, grain size, and moisture content. A database including hydrostatic consolidation and shear consolidation tests conducted on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant and southeastern New Mexico salt was used to determine material parameters for the candidate constitutive models. Nonlinear least-squares model fitting to data from the hydrostatic consolidation tests, the shear consolidation tests, and a combination of the shear and hydrostatic tests produces three sets of material parameter values for the candidate models. The change in material parameter values from test group to test group indicates the empirical nature of the models. To evaluate the predictive capability of the candidate models, each parameter value set was used to predict each of the tests in the database. Based on the fitting statistics and the ability of the models to predict the test data, the Spiers model appeared to perform slightly better than the other two candidate models. The work reported here is a first-of-its kind evaluation of constitutive models for reconsolidation of crushed salt. Questions remain to be answered. Deficiencies in models and databases are identified and recommendations for future work are made. 85 refs

  17. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  18. Evaluating Performances of Traffic Noise Models | Oyedepo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Traffic noise in decibel dB(A) were measured at six locations using 407780A Integrating Sound Level Meter, while spot speed and traffic volume were collected with cine-camera. The predicted sound exposure level (SEL) was evaluated using Burgess, British and FWHA model. The average noise level obtained are 77.64 ...

  19. Evaluation of Usability Utilizing Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penedo, Janaina Rodrigues; Diniz, Morganna; Ferreira, Simone Bacellar Leal; Silveira, Denis S.; Capra, Eliane

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the usability of a remote learning system in its initial development phase, using a quantitative usability evaluation method through Markov models. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory study. The data of interest of the research correspond to the possible accesses of users…

  20. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  1. A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson-Blake, Leah

    2015-04-01

    Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. The reasons for this were investigated for one commonly-applied model, the INtegrated model of CAtchment Phosphorus (INCA-P). Model output was compared to 18 months of daily water quality monitoring data in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland, and model structure, key model processes and internal model responses were examined. Although the model broadly reproduced dissolved phosphorus dynamics, it struggled with particulates. The reasons for poor performance were explored, together with ways in which improvements could be made. The process of critiquing and assessing model performance was then generalised to provide a broadly-applicable model evaluation checklist, incorporating: (1) Calibration challenges, relating to difficulties in thoroughly searching a high-dimensional parameter space and in selecting appropriate means of evaluating model performance. In this study, for example, model simplification was identified as a necessary improvement to reduce the number of parameters requiring calibration, whilst the traditionally-used Nash Sutcliffe model performance statistic was not able to discriminate between realistic and unrealistic model simulations, and alternative statistics were needed. (2) Data limitations, relating to a lack of (or uncertainty in) input data, data to constrain model parameters, data for model calibration and testing, and data to test internal model processes. In this study, model reliability could be improved by addressing all four kinds of data limitation. For example, there was insufficient surface water monitoring data for model testing against an independent dataset to that used in calibration, whilst additional monitoring of groundwater and effluent phosphorus inputs would help distinguish between alternative plausible model parameterisations. (3) Model structural inadequacies, whereby model structure may inadequately represent

  2. Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaeffer, D.L.

    1979-08-01

    A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

  3. Model Test Bed for Evaluating Wave Models and Best Practices for Resource Assessment and Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neary, Vincent Sinclair [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies; Yang, Zhaoqing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Coastal Sciences Division; Wang, Taiping [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Coastal Sciences Division; Gunawan, Budi [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies; Dallman, Ann Renee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies

    2016-03-01

    A wave model test bed is established to benchmark, test and evaluate spectral wave models and modeling methodologies (i.e., best practices) for predicting the wave energy resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission, IEC TS 62600-101Ed. 1.0 ©2015. Among other benefits, the model test bed can be used to investigate the suitability of different models, specifically what source terms should be included in spectral wave models under different wave climate conditions and for different classes of resource assessment. The overarching goal is to use these investigations to provide industry guidance for model selection and modeling best practices depending on the wave site conditions and desired class of resource assessment. Modeling best practices are reviewed, and limitations and knowledge gaps in predicting wave energy resource parameters are identified.

  4. Evaluation of some infiltration models and hydraulic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haghighi, F.; Gorji, M.; Shorafa, M.; Sarmadian, F.; Mohammadi, M. H.

    2010-01-01

    The evaluation of infiltration characteristics and some parameters of infiltration models such as sorptivity and final steady infiltration rate in soils are important in agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate some of the most common models used to estimate final soil infiltration rate. The equality of final infiltration rate with saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) was also tested. Moreover, values of the estimated sorptivity from the Philips model were compared to estimates by selected pedotransfer functions (PTFs). The infiltration experiments used the doublering method on soils with two different land uses in the Taleghan watershed of Tehran province, Iran, from September to October, 2007. The infiltration models of Kostiakov-Lewis, Philip two-term and Horton were fitted to observed infiltration data. Some parameters of the models and the coefficient of determination goodness of fit were estimated using MATLAB software. The results showed that, based on comparing measured and model-estimated infiltration rate using root mean squared error (RMSE), Hortons model gave the best prediction of final infiltration rate in the experimental area. Laboratory measured Ks values gave significant differences and higher values than estimated final infiltration rates from the selected models. The estimated final infiltration rate was not equal to laboratory measured Ks values in the study area. Moreover, the estimated sorptivity factor by Philips model was significantly different to those estimated by selected PTFs. It is suggested that the applicability of PTFs is limited to specific, similar conditions. (Author) 37 refs.

  5. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

    2017-11-03

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

  6. Challenges in integrating shrot-term behaviour in a mixed-fishery Management Strategies Evaluation frame: a case study of the North Sea flatfish fishery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andersen, B.S.; Vermard, Y.; Ulrich, C.; Hutton, T.; Poos, J.J.

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a fleet-based bioeconomic simulation model to the international mixed flatfish fishery in the North Sea. The model uses a Management Strategies Evaluation framework including a discrete choice model accounting for short-term temporal changes in effort allocation across fisheries.

  7. Long-term functional outcomes and correlation with regional brain connectivity by MRI diffusion tractography metrics in a near-term rabbit model of intrauterine growth restriction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Illa

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR affects 5-10% of all newborns and is associated with increased risk of memory, attention and anxiety problems in late childhood and adolescence. The neurostructural correlates of long-term abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR are unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive description of the long-term functional and neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR in a near-term rabbit model (delivered at 30 days of gestation and evaluate the development of quantitative imaging biomarkers of abnormal neurodevelopment based on diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI parameters and connectivity. METHODOLOGY: At +70 postnatal days, 10 cases and 11 controls were functionally evaluated with the Open Field Behavioral Test which evaluates anxiety and attention and the Object Recognition Task that evaluates short-term memory and attention. Subsequently, brains were collected, fixed and a high resolution MRI was performed. Differences in diffusion parameters were analyzed by means of voxel-based and connectivity analysis measuring the number of fibers reconstructed within anxiety, attention and short-term memory networks over the total fibers. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The results of the neurobehavioral and cognitive assessment showed a significant higher degree of anxiety, attention and memory problems in cases compared to controls in most of the variables explored. Voxel-based analysis (VBA revealed significant differences between groups in multiple brain regions mainly in grey matter structures, whereas connectivity analysis demonstrated lower ratios of fibers within the networks in cases, reaching the statistical significance only in the left hemisphere for both networks. Finally, VBA and connectivity results were also correlated with functional outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The rabbit model used reproduced long-term functional impairments and their

  8. Long-term functional outcomes and correlation with regional brain connectivity by MRI diffusion tractography metrics in a near-term rabbit model of intrauterine growth restriction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illa, Miriam; Eixarch, Elisenda; Batalle, Dafnis; Arbat-Plana, Ariadna; Muñoz-Moreno, Emma; Figueras, Francesc; Gratacos, Eduard

    2013-01-01

    Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) affects 5-10% of all newborns and is associated with increased risk of memory, attention and anxiety problems in late childhood and adolescence. The neurostructural correlates of long-term abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR are unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive description of the long-term functional and neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR in a near-term rabbit model (delivered at 30 days of gestation) and evaluate the development of quantitative imaging biomarkers of abnormal neurodevelopment based on diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters and connectivity. At +70 postnatal days, 10 cases and 11 controls were functionally evaluated with the Open Field Behavioral Test which evaluates anxiety and attention and the Object Recognition Task that evaluates short-term memory and attention. Subsequently, brains were collected, fixed and a high resolution MRI was performed. Differences in diffusion parameters were analyzed by means of voxel-based and connectivity analysis measuring the number of fibers reconstructed within anxiety, attention and short-term memory networks over the total fibers. The results of the neurobehavioral and cognitive assessment showed a significant higher degree of anxiety, attention and memory problems in cases compared to controls in most of the variables explored. Voxel-based analysis (VBA) revealed significant differences between groups in multiple brain regions mainly in grey matter structures, whereas connectivity analysis demonstrated lower ratios of fibers within the networks in cases, reaching the statistical significance only in the left hemisphere for both networks. Finally, VBA and connectivity results were also correlated with functional outcome. The rabbit model used reproduced long-term functional impairments and their neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR

  9. Long-Term Functional Outcomes and Correlation with Regional Brain Connectivity by MRI Diffusion Tractography Metrics in a Near-Term Rabbit Model of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illa, Miriam; Eixarch, Elisenda; Batalle, Dafnis; Arbat-Plana, Ariadna; Muñoz-Moreno, Emma; Figueras, Francesc; Gratacos, Eduard

    2013-01-01

    Background Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) affects 5–10% of all newborns and is associated with increased risk of memory, attention and anxiety problems in late childhood and adolescence. The neurostructural correlates of long-term abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR are unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive description of the long-term functional and neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR in a near-term rabbit model (delivered at 30 days of gestation) and evaluate the development of quantitative imaging biomarkers of abnormal neurodevelopment based on diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters and connectivity. Methodology At +70 postnatal days, 10 cases and 11 controls were functionally evaluated with the Open Field Behavioral Test which evaluates anxiety and attention and the Object Recognition Task that evaluates short-term memory and attention. Subsequently, brains were collected, fixed and a high resolution MRI was performed. Differences in diffusion parameters were analyzed by means of voxel-based and connectivity analysis measuring the number of fibers reconstructed within anxiety, attention and short-term memory networks over the total fibers. Principal Findings The results of the neurobehavioral and cognitive assessment showed a significant higher degree of anxiety, attention and memory problems in cases compared to controls in most of the variables explored. Voxel-based analysis (VBA) revealed significant differences between groups in multiple brain regions mainly in grey matter structures, whereas connectivity analysis demonstrated lower ratios of fibers within the networks in cases, reaching the statistical significance only in the left hemisphere for both networks. Finally, VBA and connectivity results were also correlated with functional outcome. Conclusions The rabbit model used reproduced long-term functional impairments and their neurostructural

  10. Source-term model for the SYVAC3-NSURE performance assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowat, J.H.; Rattan, D.S.; Dolinar, G.M.

    1996-11-01

    Radionuclide contaminants in wastes emplaced in disposal facilities will not remain in those facilities indefinitely. Engineered barriers will eventually degrade, allowing radioactivity to escape from the vault. The radionuclide release rate from a low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facility, the source term, is a key component in the performance assessment of the disposal system. This report describes the source-term model that has been implemented in Ver. 1.03 of the SYVAC3-NSURE (Systems Variability Analysis Code generation 3-Near Surface Repository) code. NSURE is a performance assessment code that evaluates the impact of near-surface disposal of LLRW through the groundwater pathway. The source-term model described here was developed for the Intrusion Resistant Underground Structure (IRUS) disposal facility, which is a vault that is to be located in the unsaturated overburden at AECL's Chalk River Laboratories. The processes included in the vault model are roof and waste package performance, and diffusion, advection and sorption of radionuclides in the vault backfill. The model presented here was developed for the IRUS vault; however, it is applicable to other near-surface disposal facilities. (author). 40 refs., 6 figs

  11. Modelling and evaluation of surgical performance using hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megali, Giuseppe; Sinigaglia, Stefano; Tonet, Oliver; Dario, Paolo

    2006-10-01

    Minimally invasive surgery has become very widespread in the last ten years. Since surgeons experience difficulties in learning and mastering minimally invasive techniques, the development of training methods is of great importance. While the introduction of virtual reality-based simulators has introduced a new paradigm in surgical training, skill evaluation methods are far from being objective. This paper proposes a method for defining a model of surgical expertise and an objective metric to evaluate performance in laparoscopic surgery. Our approach is based on the processing of kinematic data describing movements of surgical instruments. We use hidden Markov model theory to define an expert model that describes expert surgical gesture. The model is trained on kinematic data related to exercises performed on a surgical simulator by experienced surgeons. Subsequently, we use this expert model as a reference model in the definition of an objective metric to evaluate performance of surgeons with different abilities. Preliminary results show that, using different topologies for the expert model, the method can be efficiently used both for the discrimination between experienced and novice surgeons, and for the quantitative assessment of surgical ability.

  12. Investigation of transformational and transactional leadership styles of school principals, and evaluation of them in terms of educational administration

    OpenAIRE

    Avcı, Ahmet

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the transformational and transactional leadership styles of school principals, and to evaluate them in terms of educational administration. Descriptive survey model was used in the research. The data of the research were obtained from a total of 1,117 teachers working in public and private schools subjected to ministry of national education in Avcılar district of Istanbul province in 2014. In this study, data were obtained from the "personal informat...

  13. Hanford tank residual waste - Contaminant source terms and release models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deutsch, William J.; Cantrell, Kirk J.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Lindberg, Michael L.; Jeffery Serne, R.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Residual waste from five Hanford spent fuel process storage tanks was evaluated. → Gibbsite is a common mineral in tanks with high Al concentrations. → Non-crystalline U-Na-C-O-P ± H phases are common in the U-rich residual. → Iron oxides/hydroxides have been identified in all residual waste samples. → Uranium release is highly dependent on waste and leachant compositions. - Abstract: Residual waste is expected to be left in 177 underground storage tanks after closure at the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington State, USA. In the long term, the residual wastes may represent a potential source of contamination to the subsurface environment. Residual materials that cannot be completely removed during the tank closure process are being studied to identify and characterize the solid phases and estimate the release of contaminants from these solids to water that might enter the closed tanks in the future. As of the end of 2009, residual waste from five tanks has been evaluated. Residual wastes from adjacent tanks C-202 and C-203 have high U concentrations of 24 and 59 wt.%, respectively, while residual wastes from nearby tanks C-103 and C-106 have low U concentrations of 0.4 and 0.03 wt.%, respectively. Aluminum concentrations are high (8.2-29.1 wt.%) in some tanks (C-103, C-106, and S-112) and relatively low ( 2 -saturated solution, or a CaCO 3 -saturated water. Uranium release concentrations are highly dependent on waste and leachant compositions with dissolved U concentrations one or two orders of magnitude higher in the tests with high U residual wastes, and also higher when leached with the CaCO 3 -saturated solution than with the Ca(OH) 2 -saturated solution. Technetium leachability is not as strongly dependent on the concentration of Tc in the waste, and it appears to be slightly more leachable by the Ca(OH) 2 -saturated solution than by the CaCO 3 -saturated solution. In general, Tc is much less leachable (<10 wt.% of the

  14. Short-Term and Medium-Term Reliability Evaluation for Power Systems With High Penetration of Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Yi; Singh, Chanan; Goel, Lalit

    2014-01-01

    reliability evaluation techniques for power systems are well developed. These techniques are more focused on steady-state (time-independent) reliability evaluation and have been successfully applied in power system planning and expansion. In the operational phase, however, they may be too rough......The expanding share of the fluctuating and less predictable wind power generation can introduce complexities in power system reliability evaluation and management. This entails a need for the system operator to assess the system status more accurately for securing real-time balancing. The existing...... an approximation of the time-varying behavior of power systems with high penetration of wind power. This paper proposes a time-varying reliability assessment technique. Time-varying reliability models for wind farms, conventional generating units, and rapid start-up generating units are developed and represented...

  15. Modelling of chemical evolution of low pH cements at long term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Bitouri, Y.; Buffo-Lacarriere, L.; Sellier, A.; Bourbon, X.

    2015-01-01

    In the context of the underground radioactive waste repository, low-pH cements were developed to reduce interactions between concrete and clay barrier. These cements contain high proportions of mineral additions like silica fume, fly ash or blast furnace slag for example. The high ratio of cement replacement by pozzolanic additions allows to reduce the pH by a global reduction of Ca/Si ratio of the hydrates (according to the one observed on CEM I pastes). In order to predict the short term development of the hydration for each component of this cement, a multiphasic hydration model, previously developed, is used. The model predicts the evolution of hydration degree of each anhydrous phase and consequently the quantity of each hydrate in paste (CH, aluminates, CSH with different Ca/Si ratios). However, this model is not suitable to determine the long term mineralogical and chemical evolution of the material, due to the internal change induced by chemical imbalance between initial hydrates. In order to evaluate the chemical characteristics of low pH cement based materials, and thus assess its chemical stability in the context of radioactive waste storage, a complementary model of chemical evolution at long term is proposed. This original model is based on 'solid-solution' principles. It assumes that the microdiffusion of calcium plays a major role to explain how the different Ca/Si ratio of initial C-S-H tends together toward a medium stabilized value. The main mechanisms and full development of the model equations are presented first. Next, a comparison of the model with experimental data issue from EDS (Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy) analysis on low pH cement allows to test the model. (authors)

  16. Short- and long-term antidepressant effects of ketamine in a rat chronic unpredictable stress model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yinghong; Wang, Yiqiang; Sun, Xiaoran; Lian, Bo; Sun, Hongwei; Wang, Gang; Du, Zhongde; Li, Qi; Sun, Lin

    2017-08-01

    This research was aimed to evaluate the behaviors of short- or long-term antidepressant effects of ketamine in rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (CUS). Ketamine, a glutamate noncompetitive NMDA receptor antagonist, regulates excitatory amino acid functions, such as anxiety disorders and major depression, and plays an important role in synaptic plasticity and learning and memory. After 42 days of CUS model, male rats received either a single injection of ketamine (10 mg/kg; day 43) or 15 daily injections (days 43-75). The influence of ketamine on behavioral reactivity was assessed 24 hr (short-term) or 7 weeks after ketamine treatment (long-term). Behavioral tests used to assess the effects of these treatments included the sucrose preference (SP), open field (OF), elevated plus maze (EPM), forced swimming (FS), and water maze (WM) to detect anxiety-like behavior (OF and EPM), forced swimming (FS), and water maze (WM). Results: Short-term ketamine administration resulted in increases of body weight gain, higher sensitivity to sucrose, augmented locomotor activity in the OF, more entries into the open arms of the EPM, along increased activity in the FS test; all responses indicative of reductions in depression/despair in anxiety-eliciting situations. No significant differences in these behaviors were obtained under conditions of long-term ketamine administration ( p  > .05). The CUS + Ketamine group showed significantly increased activity as compared with the CUS + Vehicle group for analysis of the long-term effects of ketamine (* p   .05). Taken together these findings demonstrate that a short-term administration of ketamine induced rapid antidepressant-like effects in adult male rats exposed to CUS conditions, effects that were not observed in response to the long-term treatment regime.

  17. Spectral model for long-term computation of thermodynamics and potential evaporation in shallow wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Alberto; Meruane, Carolina

    2017-09-01

    Altiplanic wetlands are unique ecosystems located in the elevated plateaus of Chile, Argentina, Peru, and Bolivia. These ecosystems are under threat due to changes in land use, groundwater extractions, and climate change that will modify the water balance through changes in precipitation and evaporation rates. Long-term prediction of the fate of aquatic ecosystems imposes computational constraints that make finding a solution impossible in some cases. In this article, we present a spectral model for long-term simulations of the thermodynamics of shallow wetlands in the limit case when the water depth tends to zero. This spectral model solves for water and sediment temperature, as well as heat, momentum, and mass exchanged with the atmosphere. The parameters of the model (water depth, thermal properties of the sediments, and surface albedo) and the atmospheric downscaling were calibrated using the MODIS product of the land surface temperature. Moreover, the performance of the daily evaporation rates predicted by the model was evaluated against daily pan evaporation data measured between 1964 and 2012. The spectral model was able to correctly represent both seasonal fluctuation and climatic trends observed in daily evaporation rates. It is concluded that the spectral model presented in this article is a suitable tool for assessing the global climate change effects on shallow wetlands whose thermodynamics is forced by heat exchanges with the atmosphere and modulated by the heat-reservoir role of the sediments.

  18. The evaluation of the National Long Term Care Demonstration. 1. An overview of the channeling demonstration and its evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcagno, G J; Kemper, P

    1988-04-01

    The channeling demonstration sought to substitute community care for nursing home care to reduce long-term care costs and improve the quality of life of elderly clients and the family members and friends who care for them. Two interventions were tested, each in five sites; both had comprehensive case management at their core. One model added a small amount of additional funding for direct community services to fill the gaps in the existing system; the other substantially expanded coverage of community services regardless of categorical eligibility under existing programs. The demonstration was evaluated using a randomized experimental design to test the effects of channeling on use of community care, nursing homes, hospitals, and informal caregiving, and on measures of the quality of life of clients and their informal caregivers. Data were obtained from interviews with clients and informal caregivers; service use and cost records came from Medicare, Medicaid, channeling, and providers; and death records for an 18-month follow-up period were examined.

  19. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cilek

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  20. Model description and evaluation of model performance: DOSDIM model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewyckyj, N.; Zeevaert, T.

    1996-01-01

    DOSDIM was developed to assess the impact to man from routine and accidental atmospheric releases. It is a compartmental, deterministic, radiological model. For an accidental release, dynamic transfer are used in opposition to a routine release for which equilibrium transfer factors are used. Parameters values were chosen to be conservative. Transfer between compartments are described by first-order differential equations. 2 figs

  1. Evaluation of articulation simulation system using artificial maxillectomy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbashti, M E; Hattori, M; Sumita, Y I; Taniguchi, H

    2015-09-01

    Acoustic evaluation is valuable for guiding the treatment of maxillofacial defects and determining the effectiveness of rehabilitation with an obturator prosthesis. Model simulations are important in terms of pre-surgical planning and pre- and post-operative speech function. This study aimed to evaluate the acoustic characteristics of voice generated by an articulation simulation system using a vocal tract model with or without artificial maxillectomy defects. More specifically, we aimed to establish a speech simulation system for maxillectomy defect models that both surgeons and maxillofacial prosthodontists can use in guiding treatment planning. Artificially simulated maxillectomy defects were prepared according to Aramany's classification (Classes I-VI) in a three-dimensional vocal tract plaster model of a subject uttering the vowel /a/. Formant and nasalance acoustic data were analysed using Computerized Speech Lab and the Nasometer, respectively. Formants and nasalance of simulated /a/ sounds were successfully detected and analysed. Values of Formants 1 and 2 for the non-defect model were 675.43 and 976.64 Hz, respectively. Median values of Formants 1 and 2 for the defect models were 634.36 and 1026.84 Hz, respectively. Nasalance was 11% in the non-defect model, whereas median nasalance was 28% in the defect models. The results suggest that an articulation simulation system can be used to help surgeons and maxillofacial prosthodontists to plan post-surgical defects that will be facilitate maxillofacial rehabilitation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Performance Evaluation and Modelling of Container Terminals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatasubbaiah, K.; Rao, K. Narayana; Rao, M. Malleswara; Challa, Suresh

    2018-02-01

    The present paper evaluates and analyzes the performance of 28 container terminals of south East Asia through data envelopment analysis (DEA), principal component analysis (PCA) and hybrid method of DEA-PCA. DEA technique is utilized to identify efficient decision making unit (DMU)s and to rank DMUs in a peer appraisal mode. PCA is a multivariate statistical method to evaluate the performance of container terminals. In hybrid method, DEA is integrated with PCA to arrive the ranking of container terminals. Based on the composite ranking, performance modelling and optimization of container terminals is carried out through response surface methodology (RSM).

  3. Marine and Coastal Morphology: medium term and long-term area modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn

    This thesis documents development and application of a modelling concept developed in collaboration between DTU and DHI. The modelling concept is used in morphological modelling in coastal areas where the governing sediment transport processes are due to wave action. The modelling concept...... is defined: Hybrid morphological modelling and it is based on coupling calculated sediment transport fields from a traditional process based coastal area model with a parametrised morphological evolution model. The focus of this study is to explore possible parametric formulations of the morphological...... solution has a two dimensional nature. 1.5D shoreline model A so-called “1.5D” implementation which introduces redistribution of sediment within a coastal profile in response to horizontal 2D currents makes it possible to simulate the morphological development in areas where 2D evolution occurs...

  4. Protective effects of long-term lithium administration in a slowly progressive SMA mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagioni, Francesca; Ferrucci, Michela; Ryskalin, Larisa; Fulceri, Federica; Lazzeri, Gloria; Calierno, Maria Teresa; Busceti, Carla L; Ruffoli, Riccardo; Fornai, Francesco

    2017-12-01

    In the present study we evaluated the long-term effects of lithium administration to a knock-out double transgenic mouse model (Smn-/-; SMN1A2G+/-; SMN2+/+) of Spinal Muscle Atrophy type III (SMA-III). This model is characterized by very low levels of the survival motor neuron protein, slow disease progression and motor neuron loss, which enables to detect disease-modifying effects at delayed time intervals. Lithium administration attenuates the decrease in motor activity and provides full protection from motor neuron loss occurring in SMA-III mice, throughout the disease course. In addition, lithium prevents motor neuron enlargement and motor neuron heterotopy and suppresses the occurrence of radial-like glial fibrillary acidic protein immunostaining in the ventral white matter of SMA-III mice. In SMA-III mice long-term lithium administration determines a dramatic increase of survival motor neuron protein levels in the spinal cord. These data demonstrate that long-term lithium administration during a long-lasting motor neuron disorder attenuates behavioural deficit and neuropathology. Since low level of survival motor neuron protein is bound to disease severity in SMA, the robust increase in protein level produced by lithium provides solid evidence which calls for further investigations considering lithium in the long-term treatment of spinal muscle atrophy.

  5. Measuring Success in Obesity Prevention: A Synthesis of Health Promotion Switzerland's Long-Term Monitoring and Evaluation Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Günter Ackermann

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Since 2007, Health Promotion Switzerland has implemented a national priority program for a healthy body weight. This article provides insight into the methodological challenges and results of the program evaluation. Methods: Evaluation of the long-term program required targeted monitoring and evaluation projects addressing different outcome levels. The evaluation was carried out according to the Swiss Model for Outcome Classification (SMOC, a model designed to classify the effects of health promotion and prevention efforts. Results: The results presented in this article emphasize both content and methods. The national program successfully achieved outcomes on many different levels within complex societal structures. The evaluation system built around the SMOC enabled assessment of program progress and the development of key indicators. However, it is not possible to determine definitively to what extent the national program helped stabilize the prevalence of obesity in Switzerland. Conclusion: The model has shown its utility in providing a basis for evaluation and monitoring of the national program. Continuous analysis of data from evaluation and monitoring has made it possible to check the plausibility of suspected causal relationships as well as to establish an overall perspective and assessment of effectiveness supported by a growing body of evidence.

  6. Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer

    2006-01-01

    The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC

  7. Criteria for the evaluation and certification of long-term digital archives in the earth sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klump, Jens

    2010-05-01

    daily practical use and also broad-based acceptance of the results. The criteria catalogue is also intended to present the option of documenting trustworthiness by means of certification in a standardised national or international process. The criteria catalogue is based on the Reference Model for an Open Archival Information System (OAIS, ISO 14721:2003) With its broad approach, the nestor criteria catalogue for trusted digital repositories has to remain on a high level of abstraction. For application in the earth sciences the evaluation criteria need to be transferred into the context of earth science data and their designated user community. This presentation offers a brief introduction to the problems surrounding the long-term preservation of digital objects. This introduction is followed by a proposed application of the criteria catalogue for trusted digital repositories to the context of earth science data and their long-term preservation.

  8. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EDENBURN,MICHAEL W.; BUNTING,MARCUS; PAYNE JR.,ARTHUR C.; TROST,LAWRENCE C.

    2000-03-02

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0.

  9. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EDENBURN, MICHAEL W.; BUNTING, MARCUS; PAYNE, ARTHUR C. JR.; TROST, LAWRENCE C.

    2000-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0

  10. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...... is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...

  11. Transport properties site descriptive model. Guidelines for evaluation and modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berglund, Sten; Selroos, Jan-Olof

    2004-04-01

    This report describes a strategy for the development of Transport Properties Site Descriptive Models within the SKB Site Investigation programme. Similar reports have been produced for the other disciplines in the site descriptive modelling (Geology, Hydrogeology, Hydrogeochemistry, Rock mechanics, Thermal properties, and Surface ecosystems). These reports are intended to guide the site descriptive modelling, but also to provide the authorities with an overview of modelling work that will be performed. The site descriptive modelling of transport properties is presented in this report and in the associated 'Strategy for the use of laboratory methods in the site investigations programme for the transport properties of the rock', which describes laboratory measurements and data evaluations. Specifically, the objectives of the present report are to: Present a description that gives an overview of the strategy for developing Site Descriptive Models, and which sets the transport modelling into this general context. Provide a structure for developing Transport Properties Site Descriptive Models that facilitates efficient modelling and comparisons between different sites. Provide guidelines on specific modelling issues where methodological consistency is judged to be of special importance, or where there is no general consensus on the modelling approach. The objectives of the site descriptive modelling process and the resulting Transport Properties Site Descriptive Models are to: Provide transport parameters for Safety Assessment. Describe the geoscientific basis for the transport model, including the qualitative and quantitative data that are of importance for the assessment of uncertainties and confidence in the transport description, and for the understanding of the processes at the sites. Provide transport parameters for use within other discipline-specific programmes. Contribute to the integrated evaluation of the investigated sites. The site descriptive modelling of

  12. Evaluating strategies for sustainable intensification of US agriculture through the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiegal, S.; Bestelmeyer, B. T.; Archer, D. W.; Augustine, D. J.; Boughton, E. H.; Boughton, R. K.; Cavigelli, M. A.; Clark, P. E.; Derner, J. D.; Duncan, E. W.; Hapeman, C. J.; Harmel, R. D.; Heilman, P.; Holly, M. A.; Huggins, D. R.; King, K.; Kleinman, P. J. A.; Liebig, M. A.; Locke, M. A.; McCarty, G. W.; Millar, N.; Mirsky, S. B.; Moorman, T. B.; Pierson, F. B.; Rigby, J. R.; Robertson, G. P.; Steiner, J. L.; Strickland, T. C.; Swain, H. M.; Wienhold, B. J.; Wulfhorst, J. D.; Yost, M. A.; Walthall, C. L.

    2018-03-01

    Sustainable intensification is an emerging model for agriculture designed to reconcile accelerating global demand for agricultural products with long-term environmental stewardship. Defined here as increasing agricultural production while maintaining or improving environmental quality, sustainable intensification hinges upon decision-making by agricultural producers, consumers, and policy-makers. The Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network was established to inform these decisions. Here we introduce the LTAR Common Experiment, through which scientists and partnering producers in US croplands, rangelands, and pasturelands are conducting 21 independent but coordinated experiments. Each local effort compares the outcomes of a predominant, conventional production system in the region (‘business as usual’) with a system hypothesized to advance sustainable intensification (‘aspirational’). Following the logic of a conceptual model of interactions between agriculture, economics, society, and the environment, we identified commonalities among the 21 experiments in terms of (a) concerns about business-as-usual production, (b) ‘aspirational outcomes’ motivating research into alternatives, (c) strategies for achieving the outcomes, (d) practices that support the strategies, and (e) relationships between practice outreach and adoption. Network-wide, concerns about business as usual include the costs of inputs, opportunities lost to uniform management approaches, and vulnerability to accelerating environmental changes. Motivated by environmental, economic, and societal outcomes, scientists and partnering producers are investigating 15 practices in aspirational treatments to sustainably intensify agriculture, from crop diversification to ecological restoration. Collectively, the aspirational treatments reveal four general strategies for sustainable intensification: (1) reducing reliance on inputs through ecological intensification, (2) diversifying management

  13. Evaluation of CNN as anthropomorphic model observer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massanes, Francesc; Brankov, Jovan G.

    2017-03-01

    Model observers (MO) are widely used in medical imaging to act as surrogates of human observers in task-based image quality evaluation, frequently towards optimization of reconstruction algorithms. In this paper, we explore the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to be used as MO. We will compare CNN MO to alternative MO currently being proposed and used such as the relevance vector machine based MO and channelized Hotelling observer (CHO). As the success of the CNN, and other deep learning approaches, is rooted in large data sets availability, which is rarely the case in medical imaging systems task-performance evaluation, we will evaluate CNN performance on both large and small training data sets.

  14. Models and Rules of Evaluation in International Accounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niculae Feleaga

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The accounting procedures cannot be analyzed without a previous evaluation. Value is in general a very subjective issue, usually the result of a monetary evaluation made to a specific asset, group of assets or entities, or to some rendered services. Within the economic sciences, value comes from its very own deep history. In accounting, the concept of value had a late and fragile start. The term of value must not be misinterpreted as being the same thing with cost, even though value is frequently measured through costs. At the origin of the international accounting standards lays the framework for preparing, presenting and disclosing the financial statements. The framework stays as a reference matrix, as a standard of standards, as a constitution of financial accounting. According to the international framework, the financial statements use different evaluation basis: the hystorical cost, the current cost, the realisable (settlement value, the present value (the present value of cash flows. Choosing the evaluation basis and the capital maintenance concept will eventually determine the accounting evaluation model used in preparing the financial statements of a company. The multitude of accounting evaluation models differentiate themselves one from another through various relevance and reliable degrees of accounting information and therefore, accountants (the prepares of financial statements must try to equilibrate these two main qualitative characteristics of financial information.

  15. Models and Rules of Evaluation in International Accounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana Feleaga

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The accounting procedures cannot be analyzed without a previous evaluation. Value is in general a very subjective issue, usually the result of a monetary evaluation made to a specific asset, group of assets or entities, or to some rendered services. Within the economic sciences, value comes from its very own deep history. In accounting, the concept of value had a late and fragile start. The term of value must not be misinterpreted as being the same thing with cost, even though value is frequently measured through costs. At the origin of the international accounting standards lays the framework for preparing, presenting and disclosing the financial statements. The framework stays as a reference matrix, as a standard of standards, as a constitution of financial accounting. According to the international framework, the financial statements use different evaluation basis: the hystorical cost, the current cost, the realisable (settlement value, the present value (the present value of cash flows. Choosing the evaluation basis and the capital maintenance concept will eventually determine the accounting evaluation model used in preparing the financial statements of a company. The multitude of accounting evaluation models differentiate themselves one from another through various relevance and reliable degrees of accounting information and therefore, accountants (the prepares of financial statements must try to equilibrate these two main qualitative characteristics of financial information.

  16. Long-term modeling on HPV vaccination: do we really need any more?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garattini, Livio; Curto, Alessandro; van de Vooren, Katelijne

    2015-04-01

    The human papillomavirus (HPV) is closely related to cervical cancer. In 2007, the EMA approved two vaccines, a bivalent and a quadrivalent one, launched at three-dose schedules and very high prices worldwide. We describe what happened in the EU and what might change in the near future from an economic perspective. HPV vaccination is now established in most EU countries. The main target group of the programs is girls aged 10-14 years. Many western countries used competitive tendering to purchase the two vaccines, achieving considerable savings. The extension to males has been a hotly debated issue. The sex limitation implies that this vaccination cannot by definition achieve a 'herd immunity' effect. EMA recently approved a two-dose schedule for both vaccines that should lead to savings, although it is hard to predict how the forthcoming nonavalent vaccine will affect the market situation. Several economic evaluations based on long-term models have been published on the HPV vaccination in the recent years, using official list prices as a baseline. Most of these models can be considered mere exercises in long-term forecasting. Recently, further long-term models have been published with two- and three-dose schedules as alternatives, and the nonavalent vaccine. We wonder what added value they give for public policy purposes.

  17. Evaluation of long term creep-fatigue life for type 304 stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Ueno, Fumiyoshi; Aoto, Kazumi; Ichimiya, Masakazu; Wada, Yusaku

    1992-01-01

    The long term creep-fatigue life of type 304 stainless steel was evaluated by the creep-fatigue life prediction method based on a linear damage fraction rule. The displacement controlled creep-fatigue tests were carried out, and the time to failure of longer than 10000 hours was obtained. The creep damage of long term creep-fatigue was evaluated by taking into account the stress relaxation behavior with elastic follow-up during the hold period. The relationship between life reduction of creep-fatigue and fracture mode was provided by the creep cavity growth. The results of this study are summarized as follows; (1) The long term creep-fatigue data can be reasonably evaluated by the present method. The predicted lives were within a factor of 3 of the observed ones. (2) The present method provides the capability to predict the long term creep-fatigue life at lower temperatures as well as that at the creep dominant temperature. (3) The value of creep damage for the long term creep-fatigue data increased by elastic follow-up. The creep-fatigue damage diagram intercepted between 0.3 and 1 can represent the observed creep-fatigue damages. (4) The cavity growth depends on the hold time. The fracture of long term creep-fatigue is caused by the intergranular cavity growth. The intergranular fracture of creep-fatigue is initiated by the cavity growth and followed by the microcrack propagation along grain boundaries starting from creep cavities. (author)

  18. Small Animal Models for Evaluating Filovirus Countermeasures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banadyga, Logan; Wong, Gary; Qiu, Xiangguo

    2018-05-11

    The development of novel therapeutics and vaccines to treat or prevent disease caused by filoviruses, such as Ebola and Marburg viruses, depends on the availability of animal models that faithfully recapitulate clinical hallmarks of disease as it is observed in humans. In particular, small animal models (such as mice and guinea pigs) are historically and frequently used for the primary evaluation of antiviral countermeasures, prior to testing in nonhuman primates, which represent the gold-standard filovirus animal model. In the past several years, however, the filovirus field has witnessed the continued refinement of the mouse and guinea pig models of disease, as well as the introduction of the hamster and ferret models. We now have small animal models for most human-pathogenic filoviruses, many of which are susceptible to wild type virus and demonstrate key features of disease, including robust virus replication, coagulopathy, and immune system dysfunction. Although none of these small animal model systems perfectly recapitulates Ebola virus disease or Marburg virus disease on its own, collectively they offer a nearly complete set of tools in which to carry out the preclinical development of novel antiviral drugs.

  19. Implicit moral evaluations: A multinomial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, C Daryl; Payne, B Keith; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Scheffer, Julian A; Inzlicht, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Implicit moral evaluations-i.e., immediate, unintentional assessments of the wrongness of actions or persons-play a central role in supporting moral behavior in everyday life. Yet little research has employed methods that rigorously measure individual differences in implicit moral evaluations. In five experiments, we develop a new sequential priming measure-the Moral Categorization Task-and a multinomial model that decomposes judgment on this task into multiple component processes. These include implicit moral evaluations of moral transgression primes (Unintentional Judgment), accurate moral judgments about target actions (Intentional Judgment), and a directional tendency to judge actions as morally wrong (Response Bias). Speeded response deadlines reduced Intentional Judgment but not Unintentional Judgment (Experiment 1). Unintentional Judgment was stronger toward moral transgression primes than non-moral negative primes (Experiments 2-4). Intentional Judgment was associated with increased error-related negativity, a neurophysiological indicator of behavioral control (Experiment 4). Finally, people who voted for an anti-gay marriage amendment had stronger Unintentional Judgment toward gay marriage primes (Experiment 5). Across Experiments 1-4, implicit moral evaluations converged with moral personality: Unintentional Judgment about wrong primes, but not negative primes, was negatively associated with psychopathic tendencies and positively associated with moral identity and guilt proneness. Theoretical and practical applications of formal modeling for moral psychology are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Development of Integrity Evaluation Technology for the Long-term Spent Fuel Dry Storage System (1st year Report)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jong Won; Kook, Dong Hak; Kim, Jun Sub

    2010-05-01

    Korea has operated 16 Pressurized Water Reactors(PWR) and has a plan to construct additional nuclear power reactors as only PWR. This causes a big issue of PWR spent fuel accumulation problem now and in the future. KRMC(Korea Radioactive waste Management Coorporation) which was established in 2009 is charged with managing all kinds of radioactive waste that is produced in Korea. KRMC is considering spent fuel dry storage as an option to solve this spent fuel problem and developing the related engineering techniques. KAERI(Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) also participated in this development and focused on evaluating the spent fuel dry storage system integrity for a long term operation. This report is the first year research product. The aims of the first year work scope are surveying and analyzing models which could anticipate degradation phenomena of the all dry storage components(spent fuel, structure materials, and equipment materials) and selecting items of the tests which are planned to perform in the next project stage. The major work areas consist of 'spent fuel degradation evaluation model development', 'test senario development', 'long-term evaluation of structural material characteristics', and 'dry storage system structure degradation model development'. These works were successfully achieved. This report is expected to contribute for the second year work which includes degradation model development and test senario development, and next project stage

  1. Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Chen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Flight crew performance is of great significance in keeping flights safe and sound. When evaluating the crew performance, quantitative detailed behavior information may not be available. The present paper introduces the Bayesian Network to perform flight crew performance evaluation, which permits the utilization of multidisciplinary sources of objective and subjective information, despite sparse behavioral data. In this paper, the causal factors are selected based on the analysis of 484 aviation accidents caused by human factors. Then, a network termed Flight Crew Performance Model is constructed. The Delphi technique helps to gather subjective data as a supplement to objective data from accident reports. The conditional probabilities are elicited by the leaky noisy MAX model. Two ways of inference for the BN—probability prediction and probabilistic diagnosis are used and some interesting conclusions are drawn, which could provide data support to make interventions for human error management in aviation safety.

  2. The establishment of a method for evaluating the long-term water-tightness durability of underground concrete structure taking into account some deteriorations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hironaga, Michihiko; Kawanishi, Motoi

    1996-01-01

    To establish a method of evaluating the long-term water-tightness durability of underground concrete structures, the authors firstly studied a deterioration evaluation model to express the deterioration condition of concrete structures and constructed, on the basis of this model, a function evaluation model to estimate the lowering of functions due to deterioration, consequently indicating a 'concept for evaluating the deterioration and functions of concrete structures' which will make it possible to perform the functional evaluation of concrete structures. Based on this concept, the authors then discusses a technique for evaluating the long-term water-tightness durability of underground concrete structures, specifically indicating the technique by means of illustrations. (author)

  3. Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  4. Evaluating Predictive Models of Software Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaschini, V.; Canaparo, M.; Ronchieri, E.; Salomoni, D.

    2014-06-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  5. Evaluating predictive models of software quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaschini, V; Canaparo, M; Ronchieri, E; Salomoni, D

    2014-01-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  6. A long term model of circulation. [human body

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, R. J.

    1974-01-01

    A quantitative approach to modeling human physiological function, with a view toward ultimate application to long duration space flight experiments, was undertaken. Data was obtained on the effect of weightlessness on certain aspects of human physiological function during 1-3 month periods. Modifications in the Guyton model are reviewed. Design considerations for bilateral interface models are discussed. Construction of a functioning whole body model was studied, as well as the testing of the model versus available data.

  7. Essays on financial econometrics : modeling the term structure of interest rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, Kees Evert

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation bundles five studies in financial econometrics that are related to the theme of modeling the term structure of interest rates. The main contribution of this dissertation is a new arbitrage-free term structure model that is applied in an empirical analysis of the US term structure.

  8. Simulations, evaluations and models. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brehmer, B.; Leplat, J.

    1992-01-01

    Papers presented at the Fourth MOHAWC (Models of Human Activities in Work Context) workshop. The general theme was simulations, evaluations and models. The emphasis was on time in relation to the modelling of human activities in modern, high tech. work. Such work often requires people to control dynamic systems, and the behaviour and misbehaviour of these systems in time is a principle focus of work in, for example, a modern process plant. The papers report on microworlds and on their innovative uses, both in the form of experiments and in the form of a new form of use, that of testing a program which performs diagnostic reasoning. They present new aspects on the problem of time in process control, showing the importance of considering the time scales of dynamic tasks, both in individual decision making and in distributed decision making, and in providing new formalisms, both for the representation of time and for reasoning involving time in diagnosis. (AB)

  9. An evaluation of Tsyganenko magnetic field model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairfield, D.H.

    1991-01-01

    A long-standing goal of magnetospheric physics has been to produce a model of the Earth's magnetic field that can accurately predict the field vector at all locations within the magnetosphere for all dipole tilt angles and for various solar wind or magnetic activity conditions. A number of models make such predictions, but some only for limited spatial regions, some only for zero tilt angle, and some only for arbitrary conditions. No models depend explicitly on solar wind conditions. A data set of more than 22,000 vector averages of the magnetosphere magnetic field over 0.5 R E regions is used to evaluate Tsyganenko's 1982 and 1987 magnetospheric magnetic field models. The magnetic field predicted by the model in various regions is compared to observations to find systematic discrepancies which future models might address. While agreement is generally good, discrepancies are noted which include: (1) a lack of adequate field line stretching in the tail and ring current regions; (2) an inability to predict weak enough fields in the polar cusps; and (3) a deficiency of Kp as a predictor of the field configuration

  10. A methodology for spectral wave model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siqueira, S. A.; Edwards, K. L.; Rogers, W. E.

    2017-12-01

    Model evaluation is accomplished by comparing bulk parameters (e.g., significant wave height, energy period, and mean square slope (MSS)) calculated from the model energy spectra with those calculated from buoy energy spectra. Quality control of the observed data and choice of the frequency range from which the bulk parameters are calculated are critical steps in ensuring the validity of the model-data comparison. The compared frequency range of each observation and the analogous model output must be identical, and the optimal frequency range depends in part on the reliability of the observed spectra. National Data Buoy Center 3-m discus buoy spectra are unreliable above 0.3 Hz due to a non-optimal buoy response function correction. As such, the upper end of the spectrum should not be included when comparing a model to these data. Bioufouling of Waverider buoys must be detected, as it can harm the hydrodynamic response of the buoy at high frequencies, thereby rendering the upper part of the spectrum unsuitable for comparison. An important consideration is that the intentional exclusion of high frequency energy from a validation due to data quality concerns (above) can have major implications for validation exercises, especially for parameters such as the third and fourth moments of the spectrum (related to Stokes drift and MSS, respectively); final conclusions can be strongly altered. We demonstrate this by comparing outcomes with and without the exclusion, in a case where a Waverider buoy is believed to be free of biofouling. Determination of the appropriate frequency range is not limited to the observed spectra. Model evaluation involves considering whether all relevant frequencies are included. Guidance to make this decision is based on analysis of observed spectra. Two model frequency lower limits were considered. Energy in the observed spectrum below the model lower limit was calculated for each. For locations where long swell is a component of the wave

  11. Evaluation of oxidative status in short-term exercises of adolescent athletes

    OpenAIRE

    K Karacabey; A Atas; D Zeyrek; A Cakmak; R Kurkcu; F Yamaner

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate the effects of short-term exercise on total antioxidant status (TAS), lipid hydroperoxide (LOOHs), total oxidative status (TOS) and oxidative stress index (OSI) in adolescent athletes. A total of 62 adolescent participated in the study. Athletes were trained regularly 3 days a week for 2 hours. All subjects followed a circuit exercise program. Blood samples were collected just before and immediately after the exercise program. Antioxidant status was evalu...

  12. Evaluation of Life Sciences and Social Sciences Course Books in Term of Societal Sexuality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aykac, Necdet

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to evaluate primary school Life Sciences (1st, 2nd, and 3rd grades) and Social Sciences (4th, 5th, and 6th grades) course books in terms of gender discrimination. This study is a descriptive study aiming to evaluate the primary school Life Sciences (1st, 2nd, 3rd grades) and Social Sciences (4th, 5th, and 6th grades) course books…

  13. Knowledge management: Postgraduate Alternative Evaluation Model (MAPA in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deisy Cristina Corrêa Igarashi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Brazilian stricto sensu postgraduate programs that include master and / or doctorate courses are evaluated by Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior. The evaluation method used by CAPES is recognized in national and international context. However, several elements of the evaluation method can be improved. For example: to consider programs diversity, heterogeneity and specificities; to reduce subjectivity and to explain how indicators are grouped into different dimensions to generate a final result, which is scoring level reached by a program. This study aims to analyze the evaluation process by CAPES, presenting questions, difficulties and objections raised by researchers. From the analysis, the study proposes an alternative evaluation model for postgraduate (MAPA - Modelo de Avaliação para Pós graduação Alternativo which incorporates fuzzy logic in result analysis to minimize limitations identified. The MAPA was applied in three postgraduate programs, allowing: (1 better understanding of procedures used for the evaluation, (2 identifying elements that need regulation, (3 characterization of indicators that generate local evaluation, (4 support in medium and long term planning.

  14. A Spectral Evaluation of Models Performances in Mediterranean Oak Woodlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, R.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Abramowitz, G.; Carrara, A.; Correia, A.; Kobayashi, H.; Papale, D.; Pearson, D.; Pereira, J.; Piao, S.; Rambal, S.; Sonnentag, O.

    2009-12-01

    Ecosystem processes are influenced by climatic trends at multiple temporal scales including diel patterns and other mid-term climatic modes, such as interannual and seasonal variability. Because interactions between biophysical components of ecosystem processes are complex, it is important to test how models perform in frequency (e.g. hours, days, weeks, months, years) and time (i.e. day of the year) domains in addition to traditional tests of annual or monthly sums. Here we present a spectral evaluation using wavelet time series analysis of model performance in seven Mediterranean Oak Woodlands that encompass three deciduous and four evergreen sites. We tested the performance of five models (CABLE, ORCHIDEE, BEPS, Biome-BGC, and JULES) on measured variables of gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). In general, model performance fails at intermediate periods (e.g. weeks to months) likely because these models do not represent the water pulse dynamics that influence GPP and ET at these Mediterranean systems. To improve the performance of a model it is critical to identify first where and when the model fails. Only by identifying where a model fails we can improve the model performance and use them as prognostic tools and to generate further hypotheses that can be tested by new experiments and measurements.

  15. Intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) evaluations of multidimensional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valova, I.

    2012-01-01

    There are different logical methods for data structuring, but no one is perfect enough. Multidimensional model-MD of data is presentation of data in a form of cube (referred also as info-cube or hypercube) with data or in form of 'star' type scheme (referred as multidimensional scheme), by use of F-structures (Facts) and set of D-structures (Dimensions), based on the notion of hierarchy of D-structures. The data, being subject of analysis in a specific multidimensional model is located in a Cartesian space, being restricted by D-structures. In fact, the data is either dispersed or 'concentrated', therefore the data cells are not distributed evenly within the respective space. The moment of occurrence of any event is difficult to be predicted and the data is concentrated as per time periods, location of performed business event, etc. To process such dispersed or concentrated data, various technical strategies are needed. The basic methods for presentation of such data should be selected. The approaches of data processing and respective calculations are connected with different options for data representation. The use of intuitionistic fuzzy evaluations (IFE) provide us new possibilities for alternative presentation and processing of data, subject of analysis in any OLAP application. The use of IFE at the evaluation of multidimensional models will result in the following advantages: analysts will dispose with more complete information for processing and analysis of respective data; benefit for the managers is that the final decisions will be more effective ones; enabling design of more functional multidimensional schemes. The purpose of this work is to apply intuitionistic fuzzy evaluations of multidimensional model of data. (authors)

  16. Effects of mid-term student evaluations of teaching as measured by end-of-term evaluations: An emperical study of course evaluations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Line Katrine Harder; Sliusarenko, Tamara; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær

    2013-01-01

    Universities have varying policies on how and when to perform student evaluations of courses and teachers. More empirical evidence of the consequences of such policies on quality enhancement of teaching and learning is needed. A study (35 courses at the Technical University of Denmark....... The evaluations generally showed positive improvements over the semester for courses with access, and negative improvements for those without access. Improvements related to: Student learning, student satisfaction, teaching activities, and communication showed statistically significant average differences of 0.......1-0.2 points between the two groups. These differences are relatively large compared to the standard deviation of the scores when student effect is removed (approximately 0.7). We conclude that university policies on course evaluations seem to have an impact on the development of the teaching and learning...

  17. A mid-term, market-based power systems planning model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Dagoumas, Athanasios S.; Georgiadis, Michael C.; Papaioannou, George; Dikaiakos, Christos

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A mid-term Energy Planning along with a Unit Commitment model is developed. • The model identifies the optimum interconnection capacity. • Electricity interconnections affect the power mix and the day-ahead spot price. • Renewables’ penetration has impacts on the power reserves and the CO_2 emissions. • Energy policy and fuel pricing can have significant impacts on the power mix. - Abstract: This paper presents a generic Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model that integrates a Mid-term Energy Planning (MEP) model, which implements generation and transmission system planning at a yearly level, with a Unit Commitment (UC) model, which performs the simulation of the Day-Ahead Electricity Market. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of the Greek interconnected power system. The aim is to evaluate a critical project in the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) of the Independent Power Transmission System Operator S.A. (ADMIE), namely the electric interconnection of the Crete Island with the mainland electric system. The proposed modeling framework identifies the implementation (or not) of the interconnection of the Crete Island with the mainland electric system, as well as the optimum interconnection capacity. It also quantifies the effects on the Day-Ahead electricity market and on the energy mix. The paper demonstrates that the model can provide useful insights into the strategic and challenging decisions to be determined by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, by providing the optimal energy roadmap and management, as well as clear price signals on critical energy projects under real operating and design constraints.

  18. Development of comprehensive long-term-dry stored Spent Fuel INtegrity EvaLuator [SFINEL] - I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, H. M.; Yang, Y. S.; Kim, Y. S.; You, K. S.; Min, D. K.; No, S. K.

    1999-01-01

    Safe management of spent nuclear fuels is socially, technically, and economically very important in terms of environmental protection and utilization of recyclable resources. One of the most critical parts in the management is to establish the comprehensive monitoring system which can maintain and confirm the integrity of the spent fuels, whenever necessary, until final policy is determined on the their treatment and disposal. Especially in the first stage of maturing up the system, it is essential to secure a computing tool or code which can evaluate the integrity of the fuel cladding based on its power history and cladding degradation mechanisms. SFINEL code, an integrated computer program for predicting the spent fuel rod integrity based on burn-up history and major degradation mechanisms, has been developed in this research. This code can sufficiently simulate the power history of a fuel rod during the reactor operation and estimate the degree of deterioration of spent fuel cladding using the recently-developed models on the degradation mechanisms

  19. Evaluation of post-LOCA long term cooling performance in Korean standard nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Young Seok; Jung, Jae Won; Seul, Kwang Won; Kim, Hho Jung

    2001-01-01

    The post-LOCA long term cooling (LTC) performance of the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNPP) is analyzed for both small break loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA) and large break LOCA at cold leg. The RELAP5/MOD3.2.2 beta code is used to calculate the LTC sequences based on the LTC plan of the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plants (KSNPP). A standard input model is developed such that LOCA and the followed LTC sequence can be calculated in a single run for both small break LOCA and large break LOCA. A spectrum of small break LOCA ranging from 0.02 to 0.5 ft 2 of break area and a double-ended guillotine break are analyzed. Through the code calculations, the thermal-hydraulic behavior and the boron behavior are evaluated and the effect of the important action including the safety injection tank (SIT) isolation and the simultaneous injection in LTC procedure is investigated. As a result, it is found that the sufficient margin is available in avoiding the boron precipitation in the core. It is also found that a further specific condition for the SIT isolation action need to be setup and it is recommended that the early initiation of the simultaneous injection be taken for larger break LTC sequences. (author)

  20. Evaluating the double Poisson generalized linear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Yaotian; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Lord, Dominique

    2013-10-01

    The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the applicability of the double Poisson (DP) generalized linear model (GLM) for analyzing motor vehicle crash data characterized by over- and under-dispersion and (2) compare the performance of the DP GLM with the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) GLM in terms of goodness-of-fit and theoretical soundness. The DP distribution has seldom been investigated and applied since its first introduction two decades ago. The hurdle for applying the DP is related to its normalizing constant (or multiplicative constant) which is not available in closed form. This study proposed a new method to approximate the normalizing constant of the DP with high accuracy and reliability. The DP GLM and COM-Poisson GLM were developed using two observed over-dispersed datasets and one observed under-dispersed dataset. The modeling results indicate that the DP GLM with its normalizing constant approximated by the new method can handle crash data characterized by over- and under-dispersion. Its performance is comparable to the COM-Poisson GLM in terms of goodness-of-fit (GOF), although COM-Poisson GLM provides a slightly better fit. For the over-dispersed data, the DP GLM performs similar to the NB GLM. Considering the fact that the DP GLM can be easily estimated with inexpensive computation and that it is simpler to interpret coefficients, it offers a flexible and efficient alternative for researchers to model count data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Island-Model Genomic Selection for Long-Term Genetic Improvement of Autogamous Crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yabe, Shiori; Yamasaki, Masanori; Ebana, Kaworu; Hayashi, Takeshi; Iwata, Hiroyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Acceleration of genetic improvement of autogamous crops such as wheat and rice is necessary to increase cereal production in response to the global food crisis. Population and pedigree methods of breeding, which are based on inbred line selection, are used commonly in the genetic improvement of autogamous crops. These methods, however, produce a few novel combinations of genes in a breeding population. Recurrent selection promotes recombination among genes and produces novel combinations of genes in a breeding population, but it requires inaccurate single-plant evaluation for selection. Genomic selection (GS), which can predict genetic potential of individuals based on their marker genotype, might have high reliability of single-plant evaluation and might be effective in recurrent selection. To evaluate the efficiency of recurrent selection with GS, we conducted simulations using real marker genotype data of rice cultivars. Additionally, we introduced the concept of an "island model" inspired by evolutionary algorithms that might be useful to maintain genetic variation through the breeding process. We conducted GS simulations using real marker genotype data of rice cultivars to evaluate the efficiency of recurrent selection and the island model in an autogamous species. Results demonstrated the importance of producing novel combinations of genes through recurrent selection. An initial population derived from admixture of multiple bi-parental crosses showed larger genetic gains than a population derived from a single bi-parental cross in whole cycles, suggesting the importance of genetic variation in an initial population. The island-model GS better maintained genetic improvement in later generations than the other GS methods, suggesting that the island-model GS can utilize genetic variation in breeding and can retain alleles with small effects in the breeding population. The island-model GS will become a new breeding method that enhances the potential of genomic

  2. Island-Model Genomic Selection for Long-Term Genetic Improvement of Autogamous Crops.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiori Yabe

    Full Text Available Acceleration of genetic improvement of autogamous crops such as wheat and rice is necessary to increase cereal production in response to the global food crisis. Population and pedigree methods of breeding, which are based on inbred line selection, are used commonly in the genetic improvement of autogamous crops. These methods, however, produce a few novel combinations of genes in a breeding population. Recurrent selection promotes recombination among genes and produces novel combinations of genes in a breeding population, but it requires inaccurate single-plant evaluation for selection. Genomic selection (GS, which can predict genetic potential of individuals based on their marker genotype, might have high reliability of single-plant evaluation and might be effective in recurrent selection. To evaluate the efficiency of recurrent selection with GS, we conducted simulations using real marker genotype data of rice cultivars. Additionally, we introduced the concept of an "island model" inspired by evolutionary algorithms that might be useful to maintain genetic variation through the breeding process. We conducted GS simulations using real marker genotype data of rice cultivars to evaluate the efficiency of recurrent selection and the island model in an autogamous species. Results demonstrated the importance of producing novel combinations of genes through recurrent selection. An initial population derived from admixture of multiple bi-parental crosses showed larger genetic gains than a population derived from a single bi-parental cross in whole cycles, suggesting the importance of genetic variation in an initial population. The island-model GS better maintained genetic improvement in later generations than the other GS methods, suggesting that the island-model GS can utilize genetic variation in breeding and can retain alleles with small effects in the breeding population. The island-model GS will become a new breeding method that enhances the

  3. A Multiscale Model Evaluates Screening for Neoplasia in Barrett's Esophagus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kit Curtius

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Barrett's esophagus (BE patients are routinely screened for high grade dysplasia (HGD and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC through endoscopic screening, during which multiple esophageal tissue samples are removed for histological analysis. We propose a computational method called the multistage clonal expansion for EAC (MSCE-EAC screening model that is used for screening BE patients in silico to evaluate the effects of biopsy sampling, diagnostic sensitivity, and treatment on disease burden. Our framework seamlessly integrates relevant cell-level processes during EAC development with a spatial screening process to provide a clinically relevant model for detecting dysplastic and malignant clones within the crypt-structured BE tissue. With this computational approach, we retain spatio-temporal information about small, unobserved tissue lesions in BE that may remain undetected during biopsy-based screening but could be detected with high-resolution imaging. This allows evaluation of the efficacy and sensitivity of current screening protocols to detect neoplasia (dysplasia and early preclinical EAC in the esophageal lining. We demonstrate the clinical utility of this model by predicting three important clinical outcomes: (1 the probability that small cancers are missed during biopsy-based screening, (2 the potential gains in neoplasia detection probabilities if screening occurred via high-resolution tomographic imaging, and (3 the efficacy of ablative treatments that result in the curative depletion of metaplastic and neoplastic cell populations in BE in terms of the long-term impact on reducing EAC incidence.

  4. Ukraine National Energy Current State and Modelling its Long-Term Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shulzhenko, S.

    2016-01-01

    Structure of Ukrainian energy sector, its current challenges, drivers of its development and possible long-term pathways, and methodological approaches and methods of mathematical modelling of long-term national energy development.(author).

  5. EVALUATION OF LATE ADVERSE EVENTS IN LONG-TERM WILMS' TUMOR SURVIVORS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, Irma W. E. M.; Oldenburger, Foppe; Cardous-Ubbink, Mathilde C.; Geenen, Maud M.; Heinen, Richard C.; de Kraker, Jan; van Leeuwen, Flora E.; van der Pal, Helena J. H.; Caron, Huib N.; Koning, Caro C. E.; Kremer, Leontien C. M.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the prevalence and severity of adverse events (AEs) and treatment-related risk factors in long-term Wilms' tumor (WT) survivors, with special attention to radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: The single-center study cohort consisted of 185 WT survivors treated between 1966 and

  6. Long-term evaluation of Class II subdivision treatment with unilateral maxillary first molar extraction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Livas, Christos; Pandis, Nikolaos; Booij, Johan Willem; Katsaros, Christos; Ren, Yijin

    Objective: To evaluate the long-term effects of asymmetrical maxillary first molar (M1) extraction in Class II subdivision treatment. Materials and Methods: Records of 20 Class II subdivision whites (7 boys, 13 girls; mean age, 13.0 years; SD, 1.7 years) consecutively treated with the Begg technique

  7. Medium-term erosion simulation of an abandoned mine site using the SIBERIA landscape evolution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hancock, G.R.; Willgoose, G.R.

    2000-01-01

    This study forms part of a collaborative project designed to validate the long-term erosion predictions of the SIBERIA landform evolution model on rehabilitated mine sites. The SIBERIA catchment evolution model can simulate the evolution of landforms resulting from runoff and erosion over many years. SIBERIA needs to be calibrated before evaluating whether it correctly models the observed evolution of rehabilitated mine landforms. A field study to collect data to calibrate SIBERIA was conducted at the abandoned Scinto 6 uranium mine located in the Kakadu Region, Northern Territory, Australia. The data were used to fit parameter values to a sediment loss model and a rainfall-runoff model. The derived runoff and erosion model parameter values were used in SIBERIA to simulate 50 years of erosion by concentrated flow on the batters of the abandoned site. The SIBERIA runs correctly simulated the geomorphic development of the gullies on the man-made batters of the waste rock dump. The observed gully position, depth, volume, and morphology on the waste rock dump were quantitatively compared with the SIBERIA simulations. The close similarities between the observed and simulated gully features indicate that SIBERIA can accurately predict the rate of gully development on a man-made post-mining landscape over periods of up to 50 years. SIBERIA is an appropriate model for assessment of erosional stability of rehabilitated mine sites over time spans of around 50 years. Copyright (2000) CSIRO Australia

  8. Evaluation of models of waste glass durability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellison, A.

    1995-01-01

    The main variable under the control of the waste glass producer is the composition of the glass; thus a need exists to establish functional relationships between the composition of a waste glass and measures of processability, product consistency, and durability. Many years of research show that the structure and properties of a glass depend on its composition, so it seems reasonable to assume that there also is relationship between the composition of a waste glass and its resistance to attack by an aqueous solution. Several models have been developed to describe this dependence, and an evaluation their predictive capabilities is the subject of this paper. The objective is to determine whether any of these models describe the ''correct'' functional relationship between composition and corrosion rate. A more thorough treatment of the relationships between glass composition and durability has been presented elsewhere, and the reader is encouraged to consult it for a more detailed discussion. The models examined in this study are the free energy of hydration model, developed at the Savannah River Laboratory, the structural bond strength model, developed at the Vitreous State Laboratory at the Catholic University of America, and the Composition Variation Study, developed at Pacific Northwest Laboratory

  9. Evaluation of onset of nucleate boiling models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, LiDong [Heat Transfer Research, Inc., College Station, TX (United States)], e-mail: lh@htri.net

    2009-07-01

    This article discusses available models and correlations for predicting the required heat flux or wall superheat for the Onset of Nucleate Boiling (ONB) on plain surfaces. It reviews ONB data in the open literature and discusses the continuing efforts of Heat Transfer Research, Inc. in this area. Our ONB database contains ten individual sources for ten test fluids and a wide range of operating conditions for different geometries, e.g., tube side and shell side flow boiling and falling film evaporation. The article also evaluates literature models and correlations based on the data: no single model in the open literature predicts all data well. The prediction uncertainty is especially higher in vacuum conditions. Surface roughness is another critical criterion in determining which model should be used. However, most models do not directly account for surface roughness, and most investigators do not provide surface roughness information in their published findings. Additional experimental research is needed to improve confidence in predicting the required wall superheats for nucleation boiling for engineering design purposes. (author)

  10. Evaluation of onset of nucleate boiling models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, LiDong

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses available models and correlations for predicting the required heat flux or wall superheat for the Onset of Nucleate Boiling (ONB) on plain surfaces. It reviews ONB data in the open literature and discusses the continuing efforts of Heat Transfer Research, Inc. in this area. Our ONB database contains ten individual sources for ten test fluids and a wide range of operating conditions for different geometries, e.g., tube side and shell side flow boiling and falling film evaporation. The article also evaluates literature models and correlations based on the data: no single model in the open literature predicts all data well. The prediction uncertainty is especially higher in vacuum conditions. Surface roughness is another critical criterion in determining which model should be used. However, most models do not directly account for surface roughness, and most investigators do not provide surface roughness information in their published findings. Additional experimental research is needed to improve confidence in predicting the required wall superheats for nucleation boiling for engineering design purposes. (author)

  11. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  12. Data assimilation and model evaluation experiment datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Chung-Cheng A.; Qian, Wen; Glenn, Scott M.

    1994-01-01

    The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets. The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: (1) collection of observational data; (2) analysis and interpretation; (3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; (4) quality control and re-analysis; and (5) data archiving and software documentation. The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement. Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include (1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, (2) diagnosis and theoretical studies, and (3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

  13. Evaluating fugacity models for trace components in landfill gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shafi, Sophie [Integrated Waste Management Centre, Sustainable Systems Department, Building 61, School of Industrial and Manufacturing Science, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL (United Kingdom); Sweetman, Andrew [Department of Environmental Science, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ (United Kingdom); Hough, Rupert L. [Integrated Waste Management Centre, Sustainable Systems Department, Building 61, School of Industrial and Manufacturing Science, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL (United Kingdom); Smith, Richard [Integrated Waste Management Centre, Sustainable Systems Department, Building 61, School of Industrial and Manufacturing Science, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL (United Kingdom); Rosevear, Alan [Science Group - Waste and Remediation, Environment Agency, Reading RG1 8DQ (United Kingdom); Pollard, Simon J.T. [Integrated Waste Management Centre, Sustainable Systems Department, Building 61, School of Industrial and Manufacturing Science, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: s.pollard@cranfield.ac.uk

    2006-12-15

    A fugacity approach was evaluated to reconcile loadings of vinyl chloride (chloroethene), benzene, 1,3-butadiene and trichloroethylene in waste with concentrations observed in landfill gas monitoring studies. An evaluative environment derived from fictitious but realistic properties such as volume, composition, and temperature, constructed with data from the Brogborough landfill (UK) test cells was used to test a fugacity approach to generating the source term for use in landfill gas risk assessment models (e.g. GasSim). SOILVE, a dynamic Level II model adapted here for landfills, showed greatest utility for benzene and 1,3-butadiene, modelled under anaerobic conditions over a 10 year simulation. Modelled concentrations of these components (95 300 {mu}g m{sup -3}; 43 {mu}g m{sup -3}) fell within measured ranges observed in gas from landfills (24 300-180 000 {mu}g m{sup -3}; 20-70 {mu}g m{sup -3}). This study highlights the need (i) for representative and time-referenced biotransformation data; (ii) to evaluate the partitioning characteristics of organic matter within waste systems and (iii) for a better understanding of the role that gas extraction rate (flux) plays in producing trace component concentrations in landfill gas. - Fugacity for trace component in landfill gas.

  14. An application of RELAP5/MOD3 to the post-LOCA long term cooling performance evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Young Seok; Jung, Jae Won; Seul, Kwang Won; Kim, Hho Jung

    1998-01-01

    A realistic long-term calculation to be used in the post-LOCA long term cooling (LTC) analysis is described in this study, which was required to resolve the post-LOCA LTC issues including the concern on boric acid precipitation in the reactor core. The analysis scope is defined according to the LTC plan of UCN Units 3/4 and the plant calculation model are developed suitable to the LTC procedure. The LTC sequences following the cold leg small break LOCAs of 0.02 ft2 to 0.5 ft2 are calculated by RELAP5/ MOD3.2.2. Based on the calculation results, the establishment of shutdown cooling system entry condition and the behavior of boron transport are evaluated. The effect of model simplification is also investigated

  15. Evaluation of the St. Lucia geothermal resource: macroeconomic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burris, A.E.; Trocki, L.K.; Yeamans, M.K.; Kolstad, C.D.

    1984-08-01

    A macroeconometric model describing the St. Lucian economy was developed using 1970 to 1982 economic data. Results of macroeconometric forecasts for the period 1983 through 1985 show an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for 1983 and 1984 with a decline in 1985. The rate of population growth is expected to exceed GDP growth so that a small decline in per capita GDP will occur. We forecast that garment exports will increase, providing needed employment and foreign exchange. To obtain a longer-term but more general outlook on St. Lucia's economy, and to evaluate the benefit of geothermal energy development, we applied a nonlinear programming model. The model maximizes discounted cumulative consumption.

  16. Models of evaluation of public joint-stock property management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakupova, N. M.; Levachkova, S.; Absalyamova, S. G.; Kvon, G.

    2017-12-01

    The paper deals with the models of evaluation of performance of both the management company and the individual subsidiaries on the basis of a combination of elements and multi-parameter and target approaches. The article shows that due to the power of multi-dimensional and multi-directional indicators of financial and economic activity it is necessary to assess the degree of achievement of the objectives with the use of multivariate ordinal model as a set of indicators, ordered by growth so that the maintenance of this order on a long interval of time will ensure the effective functioning of the enterprise in the long term. It is shown that these models can be regarded as the monitoring tools of implementation of strategies and guide the justification effectiveness of implementation of management decisions.

  17. Evaluation of the long-term power generation mix: The case study of South Korea's energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, Daiki; Chung, Jaewoo

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a practical portfolio model for the long-term power generation mix problem. The proposed model optimizes the power generation mix by striking a trade-off between the expected cost of power generation and its variability. We use Monte Carlo simulation techniques to consider the uncertainty associated with future electricity demand, fuel prices and their correlations, and the capital costs of power plants. Unlike in the case of conventional power generation mix models, we employ CVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk) in designing variability to consider events that are rare but enormously expensive. A comprehensive analysis on South Korea's generation policy using the portfolio model shows that a large annual cost is additionally charged to substitute a portion of nuclear energy with other alternatives. Nonetheless, if Korea has to reduce its dependency on nuclear energy because of undermined social receptivity from the Fukushima disaster, it turns out that LNG or coal could be a secure candidate from an economic perspective. - Author-Highlights: • We develop a stochastic optimization model for long-term power generation mix. • Monte Carlo sampling method and scenario trees are used to solve the model. • The model is verified using the data provided by Korean government. • We evaluate Korea's existing nuclear expansion policy. • We analyze the cost of replacing nuclear energy with others in South Korea

  18. Using Random Forests to Select Optimal Input Variables for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Achieving relatively high-accuracy short-term wind speed forecasting estimates is a precondition for the construction and grid-connected operation of wind power forecasting systems for wind farms. Currently, most research is focused on the structure of forecasting models and does not consider the selection of input variables, which can have significant impacts on forecasting performance. This paper presents an input variable selection method for wind speed forecasting models. The candidate input variables for various leading periods are selected and random forests (RF is employed to evaluate the importance of all variable as features. The feature subset with the best evaluation performance is selected as the optimal feature set. Then, kernel-based extreme learning machine is constructed to evaluate the performance of input variables selection based on RF. The results of the case study show that by removing the uncorrelated and redundant features, RF effectively extracts the most strongly correlated set of features from the candidate input variables. By finding the optimal feature combination to represent the original information, RF simplifies the structure of the wind speed forecasting model, shortens the training time required, and substantially improves the model’s accuracy and generalization ability, demonstrating that the input variables selected by RF are effective.

  19. Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel Moreno

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk management based on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interest rates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between the long-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several new measures of ``generalized duration" are p...

  20. Uncertainty Assessment in Long Term Urban Drainage Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    the probability of system failures (defined as either flooding or surcharge of manholes or combined sewer overflow); (2) an application of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology in which an event based stochastic calibration is performed; and (3) long term Monte Carlo simulations...

  1. Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

    2017-12-01

    Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13-24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Evaluation of waste management options in view of long-term maintenance-free landfills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunner, P.H.; Doeberl, G.; Huber, R.; Eder, M.; Pierrard, R.; Schoenbaeck, W.; Fruehwirth, W.; Hutterer, H.; Woeginger, H.

    2001-01-01

    The present case study compares and evaluates different waste management options with special consideration to their long-term implications. Multiple scenarios of these options were created and investigated as to which of term best fulfilled the goals of the Austrian waste management act (Abfallwirtschaftgesetz, AWG). Serving as a basis for this study, an elaborated model of the Austrian waste management, as described in GUA and IFIP (1998, 'Management of Household and Household-like Waste in Austria'), was used. Alterations to the GUA and IFIP study were done in order to best fulfill the needs of this assessment. Household and household-like waste, as well as municipal sewage sludge have been defined as the system input. The following list of scenarios were investigated against an up-dated status-quo (P0): M1 maximum landfilling of untreated waste; M2a maximum incineration without any after treatment; M2b maximum incineration with cement stabilization of the residual material; M2c maximum high temperature process; M3a maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the light fraction from sorting and splitting processed in a fluidized-bed furnace; M3b maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the light fraction from sorting and splitting processed in a rotary kiln for use in the cement industry; M3c maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the high caloric heavy fraction after decomposition processed in a fluidized-bed furnace; M3d maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the high caloric heavy fraction after decomposition processed in a rotary kiln for use in the cement industry. In order to oblige to the precautionary principle of the AWG, each of the scenarios were investigated, with regards to the short, middle, and long-term landfills behaviors of the deposited residual material. The macro-economical Cost-Benefit-Analysis (CBA) was used in the assessment. Additionally a so-called 'modified-Cost-Effect-Analysis' (MCEA) was developed. Unlike the

  3. Long Term Evaluation of Yield Stability Trend for Cereal Crops in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mehdi nassiri mahalati

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available During the last few decades cereals yield have increased drastically at the national level however, information about yield stability and its resistance to annual environmental variability are scare. In this study long term stability of grin yield of wheat, barley, rice, corn and overall cereals in Iran were evaluated during a 40-year period (1971-2011. Stability analysis was conducted using two different methods. In the first method the residuals of regression between crop yield and time (years were calculated as stability index. For this different segmented regression models including linear, bi-linear and tri-linear were fitted to yield trend data and the best model for each crop was selected based on statistical measures. Absolute residuals (the difference between actual and predicted yields for each year as well as relative residuals (absolute residuals as percent of predicted yield were estimated. In the second method yield stability was estimated from the slope of the regression line between average annual yield of all cereals (environmental index and the yield of each crop in the same year. Results indicted that in wheat and barley absolute and relative residuals were increased during the study period leading to reduction of stability despite considerable yield increment. However, for rice and corn residuals followed a decreasing trend and therefore yield stability of these crops was increased during the last 40 years. The same result was obtained with the environmental index but in this method reduction of yield stability in barley was lower than wheat. Based on the results, yield and yield stability of cereals crops in Iran increased during the last 40 years. However, the percentage increase in stability is lower than that of yield. Application of nitrogen fertilizers was led to reduction in stability. Yield stability of wheat, barley, rice, corn and overall cereals was improved with increasing their cultivated area.

  4. Loss of confinement of liquefied gases. Evaluation of the source term; Perte de confinement de gaz liquefies. Evaluation du terme source

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alix, P.; Novat, E.; Hocquet, J.; Bigot, J.P. [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, Centre SPIN, 42 - Saint-Etienne (France)

    2001-07-01

    In this work, the states law corresponding to flow rate measurements of two-phase flows performed with five different fluid (water, butane, R11, ethyl acetate, methanol) is applied. This allows to show that the critical mass flux (which is used as source term in the scenario of loss of confinement in liquefied gas reservoirs) is a 'universal' function of the reduced initial pressure P{sub 0}{sup *}, which can be used for most of the single-constituent fluids of the processes industry. Thus it is easy to make a relatively precise estimation of the critical mass flux (uncertainty < 20% for P{sub 0}{sup *} < 15%) without the need of any model. It is shown also that no improvement of the models can be expected from the use of the vaporization kinetics. On the contrary, a qualitative consideration indicates that the use of the slip seems more promising. (J.S.)

  5. A Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luong, Ming; Stevens, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    The Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success, a theoretical stages-of-growth model, explains long-term success in IT outsourcing relationships. Research showed the IT outsourcing relationship life cycle consists of four distinct, sequential stages: contract, transition, support, and partnership. The model was…

  6. Evaluation of long-term interaction between cement and bentonite for geological disposal (1) - Project Overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owada, Hitoshi; Hayashi, Daisuke; Yahagi, Ryoji; Ishii, Tomoko

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. Bentonitic and cementitious materials are both planned for use as engineered barrier materials in the geological disposal of high level vitrified waste and TRU (transuranic) waste in Japan. As shown in Figure 1, bentonitic material will be placed around the waste packages as buffer material and a large amount of cementitious material is specified for use as filler, structure, support and grout. Cementitious material supplies an alkaline solution with high calcium concentration through reaction with groundwater. However, the alkaline solution will cause chemical and physical alteration of the bentonitic material. Since many important functions of an engineered barrier system (EBS), such as watertightness, chemical buffering, and sorption of radioactive nuclides, will be maintained by the properties of the buffer material, evaluation of long-term chemical or mechanical alteration of the buffer material is necessary to demonstrate the robustness of the EBS. Although many researches on chemical and mechanical alteration of bentonitic material, there was large uncertainty because the chemical alteration of bentonitic material is very slow and the altered region is very limited. In this project, the dissolution rate of montmorillonite under compaction and the spatial distribution of secondary C-S-H precipitation were obtained and mechanical and hydrological changes caused by the mineralogical change of bentonite material were modeled to reduce the uncertainty in the safety assessment of EBS performance. To improve the accuracy of the long term evaluation of the EBS performance, coupled analyses between hydraulic/mechanical calculations and geochemical-mass transport coupled calculations were performed. Alteration of mechanical properties caused by chemical degradation should be modeled for the coupled calculations. Because the mechanical properties of bentonitic material depend strongly on the montmorillonite content and

  7. REPFLO model evaluation, physical and numerical consistency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.N.; Holland, D.H.

    1978-11-01

    This report contains a description of some suggested changes and an evaluation of the REPFLO computer code, which models ground-water flow and nuclear-waste migration in and about a nuclear-waste repository. The discussion contained in the main body of the report is supplemented by a flow chart, presented in the Appendix of this report. The suggested changes are of four kinds: (1) technical changes to make the code compatible with a wider variety of digital computer systems; (2) changes to fill gaps in the computer code, due to missing proprietary subroutines; (3) changes to (a) correct programming errors, (b) correct logical flaws, and (c) remove unnecessary complexity; and (4) changes in the computer code logical structure to make REPFLO a more viable model from the physical point of view

  8. Long-term Morphological Modeling at Coastal Inlets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-15

    that of Humboldt Bay, CA. The model reproduces reasonably well several geomorphic and hydrodynamic features of the inlet at Humboldt Bay. The...geometries, and model setup (e.g., sediment transport formulas) to investigate the controlling geomorphic parameters and the applicability of the CMS...2015 9 The model reproduces the general geomorphic features of Humboldt Bay. The ebb shoal volume is in the lower range of the estimated amount

  9. Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lague, D.; Davy, P.

    2008-12-01

    Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width

  10. Loss terms in free-piston Stirling engine models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Lloyd B.

    1992-01-01

    Various models for free piston Stirling engines are reviewed. Initial models were developed primarily for design purposes and to predict operating parameters, especially efficiency. More recently, however, such models have been used to predict engine stability. Free piston Stirling engines have no kinematic constraints and stability may not only be sensitive to the load, but also to various nonlinear loss and spring constraints. The present understanding is reviewed of various loss mechanisms for free piston Stirling engines and how they have been incorporated into engine models is discussed.

  11. CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenburn, M.W.; Bunting, M.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.

    1997-10-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia`s Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the US Department of Energy`s Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, top-level, modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM`s unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, infrasound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection) and location accuracy of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system`s performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. This report describes version 1.2 of IVSEM.

  12. An evaluation framework for participatory modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, T.; Inman, A.; Chilvers, J.

    2012-04-01

    Strong arguments for participatory modelling in hydrology can be made on substantive, instrumental and normative grounds. These arguments have led to increasingly diverse groups of stakeholders (here anyone affecting or affected by an issue) getting involved in hydrological research and the management of water resources. In fact, participation has become a requirement of many research grants, programs, plans and policies. However, evidence of beneficial outcomes of participation as suggested by the arguments is difficult to generate and therefore rare. This is because outcomes are diverse, distributed, often tacit, and take time to emerge. In this paper we develop an evaluation framework for participatory modelling focussed on learning outcomes. Learning encompasses many of the potential benefits of participation, such as better models through diversity of knowledge and scrutiny, stakeholder empowerment, greater trust in models and ownership of subsequent decisions, individual moral development, reflexivity, relationships, social capital, institutional change, resilience and sustainability. Based on the theories of experiential, transformative and social learning, complemented by practitioner experience our framework examines if, when and how learning has occurred. Special emphasis is placed on the role of models as learning catalysts. We map the distribution of learning between stakeholders, scientists (as a subgroup of stakeholders) and models. And we analyse what type of learning has occurred: instrumental learning (broadly cognitive enhancement) and/or communicative learning (change in interpreting meanings, intentions and values associated with actions and activities; group dynamics). We demonstrate how our framework can be translated into a questionnaire-based survey conducted with stakeholders and scientists at key stages of the participatory process, and show preliminary insights from applying the framework within a rural pollution management situation in

  13. An integrated multicriteria decision-making approach for evaluating nuclear fuel cycle systems for long-term sustainability on the basis of an equilibrium model: Technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory combined with analytic hierarchy process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Sae Rom [Dept of Quantum Energy Chemical Engineering, Korea University of Science and Technology (KUST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Sung Yeol [Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulju (Korea, Republic of); Ko, Wonil [Nonproliferation System Development Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-02-15

    The focus on the issues surrounding spent nuclear fuel and lifetime extension of old nuclear power plants continues to grow nowadays. A transparent decision-making process to identify the best suitable nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) is considered to be the key task in the current situation. Through this study, an attempt is made to develop an equilibrium model for the NFC to calculate the material flows based on 1 TWh of electricity production, and to perform integrated multicriteria decision-making method analyses via the analytic hierarchy process technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory methods. This comparative study is aimed at screening and ranking the three selected NFC options against five aspects: sustainability, environmental friendliness, economics, proliferation resistance, and technical feasibility. The selected fuel cycle options include pressurized water reactor (PWR) once-through cycle, PWR mixed oxide cycle, or pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle. A sensitivity analysis was performed to prove the robustness of the results and explore the influence of criteria on the obtained ranking. As a result of the comparative analysis, the pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle is determined to be the most competitive option among the NFC scenarios.

  14. An integrated multicriteria decision-making approach for evaluating nuclear fuel cycle systems for long-term sustainability on the basis of an equilibrium model: Technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory combined with analytic hierarchy process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Sae Rom; Choi, Sung Yeol; Ko, Wonil

    2017-01-01

    The focus on the issues surrounding spent nuclear fuel and lifetime extension of old nuclear power plants continues to grow nowadays. A transparent decision-making process to identify the best suitable nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) is considered to be the key task in the current situation. Through this study, an attempt is made to develop an equilibrium model for the NFC to calculate the material flows based on 1 TWh of electricity production, and to perform integrated multicriteria decision-making method analyses via the analytic hierarchy process technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory methods. This comparative study is aimed at screening and ranking the three selected NFC options against five aspects: sustainability, environmental friendliness, economics, proliferation resistance, and technical feasibility. The selected fuel cycle options include pressurized water reactor (PWR) once-through cycle, PWR mixed oxide cycle, or pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle. A sensitivity analysis was performed to prove the robustness of the results and explore the influence of criteria on the obtained ranking. As a result of the comparative analysis, the pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle is determined to be the most competitive option among the NFC scenarios

  15. An Integrated Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach for Evaluating Nuclear Fuel Cycle Systems for Long-term Sustainability on the Basis of an Equilibrium Model: Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation, and Multiattribute Utility Theory Combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saerom Yoon

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The focus on the issues surrounding spent nuclear fuel and lifetime extension of old nuclear power plants continues to grow nowadays. A transparent decision-making process to identify the best suitable nuclear fuel cycle (NFC is considered to be the key task in the current situation. Through this study, an attempt is made to develop an equilibrium model for the NFC to calculate the material flows based on 1 TWh of electricity production, and to perform integrated multicriteria decision-making method analyses via the analytic hierarchy process technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory methods. This comparative study is aimed at screening and ranking the three selected NFC options against five aspects: sustainability, environmental friendliness, economics, proliferation resistance, and technical feasibility. The selected fuel cycle options include pressurized water reactor (PWR once-through cycle, PWR mixed oxide cycle, or pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle. A sensitivity analysis was performed to prove the robustness of the results and explore the influence of criteria on the obtained ranking. As a result of the comparative analysis, the pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle is determined to be the most competitive option among the NFC scenarios.

  16. An economic model of long-term use of celecoxib in patients with osteoarthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rublee Dale

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of the cyclooxygenase-2 selective inhibitor celecoxib (Celebrex, Pfizer Inc, USA have produced conflicting results. The recent controversy over the cardiovascular (CV risks of rofecoxib and other coxibs has renewed interest in the economic profile of celecoxib, the only coxib now available in the United States. The objective of our study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of celecoxib compared with nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old osteoarthritis (OA patients with average risks of upper gastrointestinal (UGI complications who require chronic daily NSAID therapy. Methods We used decision analysis based on data from the literature to evaluate cost-effectiveness from a modified societal perspective over patients' lifetimes, with outcomes expressed as incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY gained. Sensitivity tests were performed to evaluate the impacts of advancing age, CV thromboembolic event risk, different analytic horizons and alternate treatment strategies after UGI adverse events. Results Our main findings were: 1 the base model incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER for celecoxib versus nsNSAIDs was $31,097 per QALY; 2 the ICER per QALY was $19,309 for a model in which UGI ulcer and ulcer complication event risks increased with advancing age; 3 the ICER per QALY was $17,120 in sensitivity analyses combining serious CV thromboembolic event (myocardial infarction, stroke, CV death risks with base model assumptions. Conclusion Our model suggests that chronic celecoxib is cost-effective versus nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old OA patients with average risks of UGI events.

  17. Testing Affine Term Structure Models in Case of Transaction Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Melenberg, B.; Nijman, T.E.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we empirically analyze the impact of transaction costs on the performance of affine interest rate models. We test the implied (no arbitrage) Euler restrictions, and we calculate the specification error bound of Hansen and Jagannathan to measure the extent to which a model is

  18. Long-Term Calculations with Large Air Pollution Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambelas Skjøth, C.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Brandt, J.

    1999-01-01

    Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998......Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998...

  19. A fuzzy inference model for short-term load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamlook, Rustum; Badran, Omar; Abdulhadi, Emad

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the short-term load forecasting (STLF) in power system operations. It provides load prediction for generation scheduling and unit commitment decisions, and therefore precise load forecasting plays an important role in reducing the generation cost and the spinning reserve capacity. Short-term electricity demand forecasting (i.e., the prediction of hourly loads (demand)) is one of the most important tools by which an electric utility/company plans, dispatches the loading of generating units in order to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, which is derived from the accuracy of the forecasting algorithm used, will determine the economics of the operation of the power system. The inaccuracy or large error in the forecast simply means that load matching is not optimized and consequently the generation and transmission systems are not being operated in an efficient manner. In the present study, a proposed methodology has been introduced to decrease the forecasted error and the processing time by using fuzzy logic controller on an hourly base. Therefore, it predicts the effect of different conditional parameters (i.e., weather, time, historical data, and random disturbances) on load forecasting in terms of fuzzy sets during the generation process. These parameters are chosen with respect to their priority and importance. The forecasted values obtained by fuzzy method were compared with the conventionally forecasted ones. The results showed that the STLF of the fuzzy implementation have more accuracy and better outcomes

  20. The string model with the extrinsic curvature term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoi, C.; Kubota, Hiroshi

    1988-01-01

    The string model with the extrinsic curvature is studied which is a gauge invariant field theory with higher order derivatives. We present an equivalent action without any higher order derivatives which keeps the gauge invariance. We point out the difficulty caused by the second class constraints in Dirac's canonical method. Following a new method for dynamical systems with second class constraints, we construct a equivalent model which has no second class constraints but has a new gauge invariance. This gauge invariance guarantees the equivalence between the original model and new one. We show that the model can be quantized in this formalism. In a simple model, we show the nilpotence of the BRST charge under certain conditions, and discuss the unitarity of the theory. (author)

  1. Creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and long-term deformation analysis of landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Liangchao; Wang, Shimei; Zhang, Yeming

    2015-04-01

    Sliding zone soil is a special soil layer formed in the development of a landslide. Its creep behavior plays a significant role in long-term deformation of landslides. Due to rainfall infiltration and reservoir water level fluctuation, the soils in the slide zone are often in unsaturated state. Therefore, the investigation of creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils is of great importance for understanding the mechanism of the long-term deformation of a landslide in reservoir areas. In this study, the full-process creep curves of the unsaturated soils in the sliding zone in different net confining pressure, matric suctions and stress levels were obtained from a large number of laboratory triaxial creep tests. A nonlinear creep model for unsaturated soils and its three-dimensional form was then deduced based on the component model theory and unsaturated soil mechanics. This creep model was validated with laboratory creep data. The results show that this creep model can effectively and accurately describe the nonlinear creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils. In order to apply this creep model to predict the long-term deformation process of landslides, a numerical model for simulating the coupled seepage and creep deformation of unsaturated sliding zone soils was developed based on this creep model through the finite element method (FEM). By using this numerical model, we simulated the deformation process of the Shuping landslide located in the Three Gorges reservoir area, under the cycling reservoir water level fluctuation during one year. The simulation results of creep displacement were then compared with the field deformation monitoring data, showing a good agreement in trend. The results show that the creeping deformations of landslides have strong connections with the changes of reservoir water level. The creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and the findings obtained by numerical simulations in this study are conducive to

  2. Building long-term and high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation and air temperature reanalyses by mixing local observations and global atmospheric reanalyses: the ANATEM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kuentz

    2015-06-01

    The ANATEM model has been also evaluated for the regional scale against independent long-term time series and was able to capture regional low-frequency variability over more than a century (1883–2010.

  3. Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasts Using Sky Images and Radiative Transfer Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Du

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a novel forecast method which addresses the difficulty in short-term solar irradiance forecasting that arises due to rapidly evolving environmental factors over short time periods. This involves the forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI that combines prediction sky images with a Radiative Transfer Model (RTM. The prediction images (up to 10 min ahead are produced by a non-local optical flow method, which is used to calculate the cloud motion for each pixel, with consecutive sky images at 1 min intervals. The Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI and the diffuse radiation intensity field under clear sky and overcast conditions obtained from the RTM are then mapped to the sky images. Through combining the cloud locations on the prediction image with the corresponding instance of image-based DNI and diffuse radiation intensity fields, the GHI can be quantitatively forecasted for time horizons of 1–10 min ahead. The solar forecasts are evaluated in terms of root mean square error (RMSE and mean absolute error (MAE in relation to in-situ measurements and compared to the performance of the persistence model. The results of our experiment show that GHI forecasts using the proposed method perform better than the persistence model.

  4. Modelling Tradescantia fluminensis to assess long term survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex James

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a simple Poisson process model for the growth of Tradescantia fluminensis, an invasive plant species that inhibits the regeneration of native forest remnants in New Zealand. The model was parameterised with data derived from field experiments in New Zealand and then verified with independent data. The model gave good predictions which showed that its underlying assumptions are sound. However, this simple model had less predictive power for outputs based on variance suggesting that some assumptions were lacking. Therefore, we extended the model to include higher variability between plants thereby improving its predictions. This high variance model suggests that control measures that promote node death at the base of the plant or restrict the main stem growth rate will be more effective than those that reduce the number of branching events. The extended model forms a good basis for assessing the efficacy of various forms of control of this weed, including the recently-released leaf-feeding tradescantia leaf beetle (Neolema ogloblini.

  5. Review of models used for determining consequences of UF6 release: Development of model evaluation criteria. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nair, S.K.; Chambers, D.B.; Park, S.H.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1997-11-01

    The objective of this study is to examine the usefulness and effectiveness of currently existing models that simulate the release of uranium hexafluoride from UF 6 -handling facilities, subsequent reactions of UF 6 with atmospheric moisture, and the dispersion of UF 6 and reaction products in the atmosphere. The study evaluates screening-level and detailed public-domain models that were specifically developed for UF 6 and models that were originally developed for the treatment of dense gases but are applicable to UF 6 release, reaction, and dispersion. The model evaluation process is divided into three specific tasks: model-component evaluation; applicability evaluation; and user interface and quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) evaluation. Within the model-component evaluation process, a model's treatment of source term, thermodynamics, and atmospheric dispersion are considered and model predictions are compared with actual observations. Within the applicability evaluation process, a model's applicability to Integrated Safety Analysis, Emergency Response Planning, and Post-Accident Analysis, and to site-specific considerations are assessed. Finally, within the user interface and QA/QC evaluation process, a model's user-friendliness, presence and clarity of documentation, ease of use, etc. are assessed, along with its handling of QA/QC. This document presents the complete methodology used in the evaluation process

  6. Evaluation of long-term water-level declines in basalt aquifers near Mosier, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Erick R.; Morgan, David S.; Lee, Karl K.; Haynes, Jonathan V.; Conlon, Terrence D.

    2012-01-01

    are not sustainable, (2) well construction practices that have resulted in leakage from aquifers into springs and streams, and (3) reduction in aquifer recharge resulting from long-term climate variations. Historical well construction practices, specifically open, unlined, uncased boreholes that result in cross-connecting (or commingling) multiple aquifers, allow water to flow between these aquifers. Water flowing along the path of least resistance, through commingled boreholes, allows the drainage of aquifers that previously stored water more efficiently. The study area is in the eastern foothills of the Cascade Range in north central Oregon in a transitional zone between the High Cascades to the west and the Columbia Plateau to the east. The 78-square mile (mi2) area is defined by the drainages of three streams - Mosier Creek (51.8 mi2), Rock Creek (13.9 mi2), and Rowena Creek (6.9 mi2) - plus a small area that drains directly to the Columbia River.The three major components of the study are: (1) a 2-year intensive data collection period to augment previous streamflow and groundwater-level measurements, (2) precipitation-runoff modeling of the watersheds to determine the amount of recharge to the aquifer system, and (3) groundwater-flow modeling and analysis to evaluate the cause of groundwater-level declines and to evaluate possible water resource management strategies. Data collection included the following: 1. Water-level measurements were made in 37 wells. Bi-monthly or quarterly measurements were made in 30 wells, and continuous water-level monitoring instruments were installed in 7 wells. The measurements principally were made to capture the seasonal patterns in the groundwater system, and to augment the available long-term record. 2. Groundwater pumping was measured, reported, or estimated from irrigation, municipal and domestic wells. Flowmeters were installed on 74 percent of all high-capacity irrigation wells in the study area. 3. Borehole geophysical data

  7. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available focused on SA Highveld, 2006 ? Keeping all CAMx inputs ?standardized?, leaving only meteorology as a variable ? CSIR 2010 Slide 11 CAMx data flow CAMx Met model USGS surface data Emissions Initial & boundary Haze & albedo Photolysis rates...

  8. Computer modelling of radioactive source terms at a tokamak reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meide, A.

    1984-12-01

    The Monte Carlo code MCNP has been used to create a simple three-dimensional mathematical model representing 1/12 of a tokamak fusion reactor for studies of the exposure rate level from neutrons as well as gamma rays from the activated materials, and for later estimates of the consequences to the environment, public, and operating personnel. The model is based on the recommendations from the NET/INTOR workshops. (author)

  9. Solitons and bubbles in models with Chern-Simons term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masperi, L.

    1992-07-01

    It is shown that a gauge theory for complex scalar field with up to sextic self-interactions and a Chern-Simons term in 2 + 1 dimensions has solitons which may become bubbles of the stable broken-symmetry phase in a medium of the symmetric one producing the first-order phase transition. In the non-relativistic limit scale invariance prevents the determination of an optimal bubble size. Possible extensions to 3 + 1 dimensions of bubbles of string type are indicated. (author). 8 refs

  10. Towards The Long-Term Preservation of Building Information Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beetz, Jacob; Dietze, Stefan; Berndt, René

    2013-01-01

    , no existing approach is able to provide a secure and efficient long-term preservation solution covering the broad spectrum of 3D architectural data, while at the same time taking into account the demands of institutional collectors like architecture libraries and archives as well as those of the private...... ICT-2011-9 project “DURAARK - Durable Architectural Knowledge” is presented. Initial preliminary results of the interdisciplinary working groups within this project ranging from the ingest and storage of voluminous sets of low-level point-cloud data from laser scans to semantically consistent...

  11. The evaluation of the National Long Term Care Demonstration. 1. An overview of the channeling demonstration and its evaluation.

    OpenAIRE

    Carcagno, G J; Kemper, P

    1988-01-01

    The channeling demonstration sought to substitute community care for nursing home care to reduce long-term care costs and improve the quality of life of elderly clients and the family members and friends who care for them. Two interventions were tested, each in five sites; both had comprehensive case management at their core. One model added a small amount of additional funding for direct community services to fill the gaps in the existing system; the other substantially expanded coverage of ...

  12. Educational Evaluators--A Model for Task Oriented Position Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, David; and others

    1970-01-01

    An outline of 44 evaluator tasks is discussed in terms of its usefulness in defining, evaluating, and improving the position of "educational evaluator ; in adapting the position to the needs of particular institutions; and in designing appropriate evaluator training programs. (JES)

  13. Solutions of several coupled discrete models in terms of Lamé ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The models discussed are: coupled Salerno model,; coupled Ablowitz–Ladik model,; coupled 4 model and; coupled 6 model. In all these cases we show that the coefficients of the Lamé polynomials are such that the Lamé polynomials can be re-expressed in terms of Chebyshev polynomials of the relevant Jacobi elliptic ...

  14. Persistent short-term memory defects following sleep deprivation in a drosophila model of Parkinson disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seugnet, Laurent; Galvin, James E; Suzuki, Yasuko; Gottschalk, Laura; Shaw, Paul J

    2009-08-01

    Parkinson disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disorder in the United States. It is associated with motor deficits, sleep disturbances, and cognitive impairment. The pathology associated with PD and the effects of sleep deprivation impinge, in part, upon common molecular pathways suggesting that sleep loss may be particularly deleterious to the degenerating brain. Thus we investigated the long-term consequences of sleep deprivation on shortterm memory using a Drosophila model of Parkinson disease. Transgenic strains of Drosophila melanogaster. Using the GAL4-UAS system, human alpha-synuclein was expressed throughout the nervous system of adult flies. Alpha-synuclein expressing flies (alpha S flies) and the corresponding genetic background controls were sleep deprived for 12 h at age 16 days and allowed to recover undisturbed for at least 3 days. Short-term memory was evaluated using aversive phototaxis suppression. Dopaminergic systems were assessed using mRNA profiling and immunohistochemistry. MEASURMENTS AND RESULTS: When sleep deprived at an intermediate stage of the pathology, alpha S flies showed persistent short-term memory deficits that lasted > or = 3 days. Cognitive deficits were not observed in younger alpha S flies nor in genetic background controls. Long-term impairments were not associated with accelerated loss of dopaminergic neurons. However mRNA expression of the dopamine receptors dDA1 and DAMB were significantly increased in sleep deprived alpha S flies. Blocking D1-like receptors during sleep deprivation prevented persistent shortterm memory deficits. Importantly, feeding flies the polyphenolic compound curcumin blocked long-term learning deficits. These data emphasize the importance of sleep in a degenerating/reorganizing brain and shows that pathological processes induced by sleep deprivation can be dissected at the molecular and cellular level using Drosophila genetics.

  15. Simulation of ultra-long term behavior in HLW near-field by centrifugal model test. Part 1. Development of centrifugal equipment and centrifuge model test method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimoto, Soshi; Okada, Tetsuji; Sawada, Masataka

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to develop a centrifugal equipment which can continuously be run for a long time and a model test method in order to evaluate a long term behavior which is a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical processes in the high level wastes geological disposal repository and the neighborhood (called 'near-field'). The centrifugal equipment of CRIEPI, 'CENTURY5000-THM', developed in the present study is able to run continuously up to six months. Therefore, a long term behavior in the near-field can be simulated in a short term, for instance, the behavior for 5000 equivalent years can be simulated in six months by centrifugalizing 100 G using a 1/100 size model. We carried out a test using a nylon specimen in a centrifugal force field of 30 G and confirmed the operations of CENTURY5000-THM, control and measurement for 11 days. As the results, it was able to control the stress in the pressure vessel and measure the values of strain, temperature and pressure. And, as a result of scanning the small model of near-field including the metal overpack, bentonite buffer and rock by a medical X-rays CT scanner, the internal structure of the model was able to be evaluated when the metal artifact was reduced. From these results, the evaluation for a long term behavior of a disposal repository by the method of centrifugal model test became possible. (author)

  16. Modelling Pressurized Water Reactor cores in terms of porous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricciardi, G.; Collard, B.; Ricciardi, G.; Bellizzi, S.; Cochelin, B.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a tractable model of a nuclear reactor core taking the complexity of the structure (including its nonlinear behaviour) and fluid flow coupling into account. The mechanical behaviour modelling includes the dynamics of both the fuel assemblies and the fluid. Each rod bundle is modelled in the form of a deformable porous medium; then, the velocity field of the fluid and the displacement field of the structure are defined over the whole domain. The fluid and the structure are first modelled separately, before being linked together. The equations of motion for the structure are obtained using a Lagrangian approach and, to be able to link up the fluid and the structure, the equations of motion for the fluid are obtained using an arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian approach. The finite element method is applied to spatially discretize the equations. Simulations are performed to analyse the effects of the characteristics of the fluid and of the structure. Finally, the model is validated with a test involving two fuel assemblies, showing good agreement with the experimental data. (authors)

  17. Development and Evaluation of Amino Acid Molecular Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aparecido R. Silva

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The comprehension of structure and function of proteins has a tight relationshipwith the development of structural biology. However, biochemistry students usuallyfind difficulty to visualize the structures when they use only schematic drawings ofdidactic books. The representation of three-dimensional structures of somebiomolecules with ludic models, built with representative units, have supplied tothe students and teachers a successfully experience to better visualize andcorrelate the structures to the real molecules. The present work shows thedeveloped models and the process to produce the representative units of the mainamino acids in industrial scale. The design and applicability of the representativeunits were discussed with many teachers and some suggestions wereimplemented to the models. The preliminary evaluation and perspective ofutilization by researchers show that the work is in the right direction. At the actualstage, the models are defined, prototypes were made and will be presented in thismeeting. The moulds for the units are at the final stage of construction and trial inspecialized tool facilities. The last term will consist of an effective evaluation of thedidactic tool for the teaching/learning process in Structural Molecular Biology. Theevaluation protocol is being elaborated containing simple and objective questions,similar to those used in research on science teaching.

  18. A generalized one-factor term structure model and pricing of interest rate derivative securities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, George J.

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to propose a nonparametric interest rate term structure model and investigate its implications on term structure dynamics and prices of interest rate derivative securities. The nonparametric spot interest rate process is estimated from the observed short-term interest

  19. Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Rode, Karyn D.; Durner, George M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.

    2015-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) was listed as a globally threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008, mostly due to the significant threat to their future population viability from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice. A core mandate of the ESA is the development of a recovery plan that identifies steps to maintain viable populations of a listed species. A substantive evaluation of the relative influence of putative threats to population persistence is helpful to recovery planning. Because management actions must often be taken in the face of substantial information gaps, a formalized evaluation hypothesizing potential stressors and their relationships with population persistence can improve identification of relevant conservation actions. To this end, we updated a Bayesian network model previously used to forecast the future status of polar bears worldwide. We used new information on actual and predicted sea ice loss and polar bear responses to evaluate the relative influence of plausible threats and their mitigation through management actions on the persistence of polar bears in four ecoregions. We found that polar bear outcomes worsened over time through the end of the century under both stabilized and unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways. Under the unabated pathway (i.e., RCP 8.5), the time it took for polar bear populations in two of four ecoregions to reach a dominant probability of greatly decreased was hastened by about 25 years. Under the stabilized GHG emission pathway (i.e., RCP 4.5), where GHG emissions peak around the year 2040, the polar bear population in the Archipelago Ecoregion of High Arctic Canada never reached a dominant probability of greatly decreased, reinforcing earlier suggestions of this ecoregion’s potential to serve as a long-term refugium. The most influential drivers of adverse polar bear outcomes were declines to overall sea ice conditions and to the marine prey base. Improved sea ice conditions

  20. Risk Modeling Approaches in Terms of Volatility Banking Transactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica Cucşa (Stratulat

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The inseparability of risk and banking activity is one demonstrated ever since banking systems, the importance of the topic being presend in current life and future equally in the development of banking sector. Banking sector development is done in the context of the constraints of nature and number of existing risks and those that may arise, and serves as limiting the risk of banking activity. We intend to develop approaches to analyse risk through mathematical models by also developing a model for the Romanian capital market 10 active trading picks that will test investor reaction in controlled and uncontrolled conditions of risk aggregated with harmonised factors.

  1. Evaluation of the Long-Term Stability and Temperature Coefficient of Dew-Point Hygrometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benyon, R.; Vicente, T.; Hernández, P.; De Rivas, L.; Conde, F.

    2012-09-01

    The continuous quest for improved specifications of optical dew-point hygrometers has raised customer expectations on the performance of these devices. In the absence of a long calibration history, users with a limited prior experience in the measurement of humidity, place reliance on manufacturer specifications to estimate long-term stability. While this might be reasonable in the case of measurement of electrical quantities, in humidity it can lead to optimistic estimations of uncertainty. This article reports a study of the long-term stability of some hygrometers and the analysis of their performance as monitored through regular calibration. The results of the investigations provide some typical, realistic uncertainties associated with the long-term stability of instruments used in calibration and testing laboratories. Together, these uncertainties can help in establishing initial contributions in uncertainty budgets, as well as in setting the minimum calibration requirements, based on the evaluation of dominant influence quantities.

  2. Simple and reliable procedure for the evaluation of short-term dynamic processes in power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Popovic, D P

    1986-10-01

    An efficient approach is presented to the solution of the short-term dynamics model in power systems. It consists of an adequate algebraic treatment of the original system of nonlinear differential equations, using linearization, decomposition and Cauchy's formula. The simple difference equations obtained in this way are incorporated into a model of the electrical network, which is of a low order compared to the ones usually used. Newton's method is applied to the model formed in this way, which leads to a simple and reliable iterative procedure. The characteristics of the procedure developed are demonstrated on examples of transient stability analysis of real power systems. 12 refs.

  3. EDM - A model for optimising the short-term power operation of a complex hydroelectric network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tremblay, M.; Guillaud, C.

    1996-01-01

    In order to optimize the short-term power operation of a complex hydroelectric network, a new model called EDM was added to PROSPER, a water management analysis system developed by SNC-Lavalin. PROSPER is now divided into three parts: an optimization model (DDDP), a simulation model (ESOLIN), and an economic dispatch model (EDM) for the short-term operation. The operation of the KSEB hydroelectric system (located in southern India) with PROSPER was described. The long-term analysis with monthly time steps is assisted by the DDDP, and the daily analysis with hourly or half-hourly time steps is performed with the EDM model. 3 figs

  4. Evaluation of Long Term Behaviour of Polymers for Offshore Oil and Gas Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Gac P.-Y.

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Polymers and composites are very attractive for underwater applications, but it is essential to evaluate their long term behaviour in sea water if structural integrity of offshore structures is to be guaranteed. Accelerated test procedures are frequently required, and this paper will present three examples showing how the durability of polymers, in the form of fibres, matrix resins in fibre reinforced composites for structural elements, and thermal insulation coatings of flow-lines, have been evaluated for offshore use. The influence of the ageing medium, temperature, and hydrostatic pressure will be discussed first, then an example of the application of ageing test results to predict long term behavior of the thermal insulation coating of a flowline will be presented.

  5. Long-Term Evaluation of SSL Field Performance in Select Interior Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perrin, Tess E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Davis, Robert G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wilkerson, Andrea M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2017-02-28

    This GATEWAY project evaluated four field installations to better understand the long-term performance of a number of LED products, which can hopefully stimulate improvements in designing, manufacturing, specifying, procuring, and installing LED products. Field studies provide the opportunity to discover and investigate issues that cannot be simulated or uncovered in a laboratory, but the installed performance over time of commercially available LED products has not been well documented. Improving long-term performance can provide both direct energy savings by reducing the need to over-light to account for light loss and indirect energy savings through better market penetration due to SSL’s competitive advantages over less-efficient light source technologies. The projects evaluated for this report illustrate that SSL use is often motivated by advantages other than energy savings, including maintenance savings, easier integration with control systems, and improved lighting quality.

  6. Environmental and other evaluations of alternatives for long-term management of stored INEL transuranic waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-02-01

    This study identifies, develops, and evaluates, in a preliminary manner, alternatives for long-term management of TRU waste stored at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) at the INEL. The evaluations concern waste currently at the RWMC and waste expected to be received by the beginning of the year 1985. The effects of waste that might be received after that date are addressed in an appendix. The technology required for managing the waste, the environmental effects, the risks to the public, the radiological and nonradiological hazards to workers, and the estimated costs are discussed

  7. Environmental and other evaluations of alternatives for long-term management of stored INEL transuranic waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-12-01

    This study identifies, develops, and evaluates, in a preliminary manner, alternatives for long-term management of TRU waste stored at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) at the INEL. The evaluations concern waste currently at the RWMC and waste expected to be received by the beginning of the year 1985. The effects of waste that might be received after that data are addressed in an appendix. The technology required for managing the waste, the environmental effects, the risks to the public, the radiological and nonradiological hazards to workers, and the estimated costs are discussed

  8. Evaluation of selected near-term energy-conservation options for the Midwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, A.R.; Colsher, C.S.; Hamilton, R.W.; Buehring, W.A.

    1978-11-01

    This report evaluates the potential for implementation of near-term energy-conservation practices for the residential, commercial, agricultural, industrial, transportation, and utility sectors of the economy in twelve states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The information used to evaluate the magnitude of achievable energy savings includes regional energy use, the regulatory/legislative climate relating to energy conservation, technical characteristics of the measures, and their feasibility of implementation. This work is intended to provide baseline information for an ongoing regional assessment of energy and environmental impacts in the Midwest. 80 references.

  9. Environmental and other evaluations of alternatives for long-term management of stored INEL transuranic waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-02-01

    This study identifies, develops, and evaluates, in a preliminary manner, alternatives for long-term management of TRU waste stored at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) at the INEL. The evaluations concern waste currently at the RWMC and waste expected to be received by the beginning of the year 1985. The effects of waste that might be received after that date are addressed in an appendix. The technology required for managing the waste, the environmental effects, the risks to the public, the radiological and nonradiological hazards to workers, and the estimated costs are discussed.

  10. Medium-term evaluation of total knee arthroplasty without patellar replacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Wanderley Vasconcelos

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To mid-term evaluate patients who were submitted to total knee arthroplasty without patellar resurfacing. METHODS: It was realized a retrospective cross-sectional study of patients who were submitted to total knee arthroplasty without patellar resurfacing. In all patients clinical examination was done based on the protocol of the Knee Society Scoring System, which assessed pain, range of motion, stability, contraction, knee alignment and function, and radiological evaluation. RESULTS: A total of 36 patients were evaluated. Of these, 07 were operated only on left knee, 12 only on right knee and 17 were operated bilaterally, totaling 53 knees. Ages ranged from 26 to 84 years. Of the 53 knees evaluated, 33 (62.26% had no pain. The maximum flexion range of motion averaged 104.7°. No knee had difficulty in active extension. As to the alignment for anatomical axis twelve knees (22.64% showed deviation between 0° and 4° varus. Thirty-nine (75.49% knees showed pace without restriction and the femorotibial angle ranged between 3° varus and 13° valgus with an average of 5° valgus. The patellar index ranged from 0.2 to 1.1. CONCLUSION: Total knee arthroplasty whitout patellar resurfacing provides good results in mid-term evaluation.

  11. Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

    2017-01-01

    Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13–24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). - Highlights: • Regional air pollutant concentration shows an obvious spatiotemporal correlation. • Our prediction model presents superior performance. • Climate data and metadata can significantly

  12. Evaluation of Student's Environment by DEA Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Moradi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The important question here is, is there real evaluation in educational advance? In other words, if a student has been successful in mathematics or has been unsuccessful in mathematics, is it possible to find the reasons behind his advance or, is it possible to find the reasons behind his advance or weakness? If we want to respond to this significant question, it should be said that factors of educational advance must be divided into 5 main groups. 1-family, 2-teacher, 3- students 4-school and 5-manager of 3 schools It can then be said that a student's score does not just depend on a factor that people have imaged From this, it can be concluded that by using the DEA and SBM models, each student's efficiency must be researched and the factors of the student's strengths and weaknesses must be analyzed.

  13. Evaluation on the long-term durability and leachability of cemented waste form

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ki Hong; Lee, Jae Won; Ryue, Young Gerl [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

    1998-08-01

    The long-term durability and leachability on the cemented waste form containing boric acids produced in domestic nuclear nuclear power plants were evaluated. Compressive strength of waste form after durability test such as thermal stability and water immersion cycle was higher than before test and consistently increased with increasing of test time in range of 83 of 286 kgf/cm{sup 2}. Long-term leachability was evaluated by standard test methods, leach affecting factors, and prediction of long-term leachability with result data of short-term leach test. In all leach tests, the release of Cs-137 was controlled by diffusion, whereas release of Co-60 was not controlled by diffusion. Leach rate of Cs-137 was relatively constant at standard leach test methods such as NAS 16.1, IAEA, ISO-6961, and MCC-1, but that of Co-60 increased with leachant-renewal frequencies. The leach rate of both Cs-137 and Co-60 increased as test temperature raised. The release of Co-137 decreased in simulated seawater as leachant, but increased with increasing leachant volume. The prediciton of long-term release of Cs-137 from large-scale waste form using the results from short-term leach test of small-scale waste form were within {+-} 5% of actual release. The leachability indexes of Cs-137 were between 6.5 and 7.5 and those of Co-60 were ranged from 11.6 to 13.3, increasing as cumulative leaching time increased. (author). 22 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs.

  14. Term structure of sovereign spreads: a contingent claim model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katia Rocha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a simple structural model to estimate the termstructure and the implied default probability of a selected group of emerging countries, which account for 54% of the JPMorgan EMBIG index on average for the period 2000-2005. The real exchange rate dynamic, modeled as a pure diffusion process, is assumed to trigger default. The calibrated model generates sovereign spread curves consistent to market data. The results suggest that the market is systematically overpricing spreads for Brazil in 100 basis points, whereas for Mexico, Russia and Turkey the model is able to reproduce the market behavior.Este trabalho propõe um modelo estrutural para estimar a estrutura a termo e a probabilidade implícita de default de países emergentes que representam, em média, 54% do índice EMBIG do JPMorgan no período de 2000-2005. A taxa de câmbio real, modelada como um processo de difusão simples, é considerada como indicativa de default. O modelo calibrado gera a estrutura a termo dos spreads consistente com dados de mercado, indicando que o mercado sistematicamente sobre-estima os spreads para o Brasil em 100 pontos base na média, enquanto para México, Rússia e Turquia reproduz o comportamento do mercado.

  15. Evaluation of turbulence models for turbomachinery unsteady three-dimensional flows simulation; Evaluation de modeles de turbulence pour la simulation d'ecoulements tridimensionnels instationnaires en turbomachines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dano, C.

    2003-01-15

    The objective of this thesis is to evaluate k-e, k-l and k-w low Reynolds two equation turbulence models for. A quadratic nonlinear k-l model is also implemented in this study. We analyze the two equation turbulence models capacity to predict the turbomachinery flows and the wakes. We are interested more particularly in the unsteady three dimensional configuration with rotor-stator interactions. A Gaussian distribution reproduces the upstream wake. This analysis is carried out in term of prediction quality but also in term of numerical behavior. Turbines and compressors configurations are tested. (author)

  16. RTMOD: Real-Time MODel evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graziani, G; Galmarini, S.; Mikkelsen, T.

    2000-01-01

    The 1998 - 1999 RTMOD project is a system based on an automated statistical evaluation for the inter-comparison of real-time forecasts produced by long-range atmospheric dispersion models for national nuclear emergency predictions of cross-boundary consequences. The background of RTMOD was the 1994 ETEX project that involved about 50 models run in several Institutes around the world to simulate two real tracer releases involving a large part of the European territory. In the preliminary phase of ETEX, three dry runs (i.e. simulations in real-time of fictitious releases) were carried out. At that time, the World Wide Web was not available to all the exercise participants, and plume predictions were therefore submitted to JRC-Ispra by fax and regular mail for subsequent processing. The rapid development of the World Wide Web in the second half of the nineties, together with the experience gained during the ETEX exercises suggested the development of this project. RTMOD featured a web-based user-friendly interface for data submission and an interactive program module for displaying, intercomparison and analysis of the forecasts. RTMOD has focussed on model intercomparison of concentration predictions at the nodes of a regular grid with 0.5 degrees of resolution both in latitude and in longitude, the domain grid extending from 5W to 40E and 40N to 65N. Hypothetical releases were notified around the world to the 28 model forecasters via the web on a one-day warning in advance. They then accessed the RTMOD web page for detailed information on the actual release, and as soon as possible they then uploaded their predictions to the RTMOD server and could soon after start their inter-comparison analysis with other modelers. When additional forecast data arrived, already existing statistical results would be recalculated to include the influence by all available predictions. The new web-based RTMOD concept has proven useful as a practical decision-making tool for realtime

  17. Long term impacts of nuclear energy: On which purpose do we try to evaluate them?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beutler, Didier

    1998-01-01

    The indicators and the time limits for evaluation of the long term impacts of nuclear energy depend on the purpose: assessing the total cost of electricity generation; comparing different nuclear strategies; responding to public acceptance concerns; elaborating and selecting the most sustainable energy systems. Indicators that can be used are: consumption of non renewable resources; concentrations in the environment; individual exposures; collective dose; potential radiotoxicity. For all of them predicted or conditional values can be applied

  18. A Method for Evaluation of Model-Generated Vertical Profiles of Meteorological Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    evaluated WRF output for the boundary layer over Svalbard in the Arctic in terms of height above ground compared to tower and tethered balloon ...Valparaiso, Chile; 2011. Dutsch ML. Evaluation of the WRF model based on observations made by controlled meteorological balloons in the atmospheric

  19. Evaluation of oxidative status in short-term exercises of adolescent athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Karacabey

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to evaluate the effects of short-term exercise on total antioxidant status (TAS, lipid hydroperoxide (LOOHs, total oxidative status (TOS and oxidative stress index (OSI in adolescent athletes. A total of 62 adolescent participated in the study. Athletes were trained regularly 3 days a week for 2 hours. All subjects followed a circuit exercise program. Blood samples were collected just before and immediately after the exercise program. Antioxidant status was evaluated by measuring the TAS level in the plasma. Oxidative status was evaluated by measuring the total peroxide level. The percentage ratio of TAS to total peroxide level was accepted as the OSI. Plasma triglyceride, total cholesterol, LDL, HDL and VLDL were measured by automated chemical analyzer using commercially available kits.There was a significant increase in TOS (p<0.05 and OSI (p<0.01 levels and a significant decrease in TAS levels (p<0.01 compared to the resting state. There were no significant changes in LOOHs levels before and after the short-term exercise. After short-term exercise, the balance between oxidative stress and antioxidant status moves towards oxidative stress as a result of increasing oxidants and decreasing antioxidants.

  20. Study on the system development for evaluating long-term alteration of hydraulic field in Near Field 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okutu, Kazuo; Morikawa, Seiji; Takamura, Hisashi

    2003-02-01

    For the high performance evaluation of reliability of TRU waste repository, the system development for evaluating long-term alteration in consideration of the changes action of barrier materials of hydraulic field in Near Field is required. In this research, the system development for evaluating long-term alteration of hydraulic field in Near Field was examined. The model evaluating each phenomena and the prototype system for chemical/mechanical analysis system were developed, and the method of coupling chemical with dynamic analysis was examined. To improve accuracy and propriety of this analysis system in the future, necessary development elements were arranged. The research result of this year is shown below. 1) Knowledge concerning the chemical phenomena in the near field evolution was rearranged. Experimental approaches and analysis methods were applied to the phenomena of which the knowledge can be obtained. Approaches to focus the model were applied to the phenomena for which knowledge is essentially difficult to obtain. The analysis model was improved using knowledge from natural analog and computational analyses. An analysis system was developed and the propriety of the model was demonstrated. 2) The model of bentonite material was developed by focusing attention on nonlinear swelling behavior. And the model of cement material was developed by focusing attention on deformation behavior influenced by leaching of calcium element which cause reducing of rigidity and strength. With regard to the bentonite model, to testify its propriety, the trial analysis result compared with the consolidation properties test data. Furthermore, the dynamic alteration action analysis system consisted of bentonite and cement model was developed, and trial analysis was performed. In this trial analysis, parameters of cation exchange ratio of Na-bentonite for Ca ion and leaching ratio of Ca from cement material were considered. On the one hand, as concerns rock, to include the

  1. Long-term medical costs and life expectancy of acute myeloid leukemia: a probabilistic decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Han-I; Aas, Eline; Howell, Debra; Roman, Eve; Patmore, Russell; Jack, Andrew; Smith, Alexandra

    2014-03-01

    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) can be diagnosed at any age and treatment, which can be given with supportive and/or curative intent, is considered expensive compared with that for other cancers. Despite this, no long-term predictive models have been developed for AML, mainly because of the complexities associated with this disease. The objective of the current study was to develop a model (based on a UK cohort) to predict cost and life expectancy at a population level. The model developed in this study combined a decision tree with several Markov models to reflect the complexity of the prognostic factors and treatments of AML. The model was simulated with a cycle length of 1 month for a time period of 5 years and further simulated until age 100 years or death. Results were compared for two age groups and five different initial treatment intents and responses. Transition probabilities, life expectancies, and costs were derived from a UK population-based specialist registry-the Haematological Malignancy Research Network (www.hmrn.org). Overall, expected 5-year medical costs and life expectancy ranged from £8,170 to £81,636 and 3.03 to 34.74 months, respectively. The economic and health outcomes varied with initial treatment intent, age at diagnosis, trial participation, and study time horizon. The model was validated by using face, internal, and external validation methods. The results show that the model captured more than 90% of the empirical costs, and it demonstrated good fit with the empirical overall survival. Costs and life expectancy of AML varied with patient characteristics and initial treatment intent. The robust AML model developed in this study could be used to evaluate new diagnostic tools/treatments, as well as enable policy makers to make informed decisions. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Embedding Term Similarity and Inverse Document Frequency into a Logical Model of Information Retrieval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losada, David E.; Barreiro, Alvaro

    2003-01-01

    Proposes an approach to incorporate term similarity and inverse document frequency into a logical model of information retrieval. Highlights include document representation and matching; incorporating term similarity into the measure of distance; new algorithms for implementation; inverse document frequency; and logical versus classical models of…

  3. Development of an evaluation method for long-term sealability of the spent fuel storage cask

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Osamu; Ito, Chihiro; Saegusa, Toshiari

    1996-01-01

    One of the characteristics of the cask storage method of spent fuel is that containment of radioactive materials is assured by the storage cask itself. Thus, the seal structure of the cask is designed to have a highly reliable multi-barrier system using metallic gaskets instead of the conventional rubber gaskets. Although, it has been reported that the containment feature of the metallic gaskets is influenced by the plastic deformation and stress relaxation of the gaskets for a short-term usage, no research report has been published on the containment feature of the metallic gaskets for a long-term usage. In this paper, the stress relaxation features of the metallic gaskets is investigated which will directly influence the long-term sealability of the storage cask, at first. Next, the relationship between the temperature/time dependence of the plastic deformation and the containment features of the metallic gaskets. Finally, an evaluation method of the long-term sealability from experimental data of a short-term behavior of the metallic gaskets is proposed. (author)

  4. A Probabilistic Palimpsest Model of Visual Short-term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthey, Loic; Bays, Paul M.; Dayan, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Working memory plays a key role in cognition, and yet its mechanisms remain much debated. Human performance on memory tasks is severely limited; however, the two major classes of theory explaining the limits leave open questions about key issues such as how multiple simultaneously-represented items can be distinguished. We propose a palimpsest model, with the occurrent activity of a single population of neurons coding for several multi-featured items. Using a probabilistic approach to storage and recall, we show how this model can account for many qualitative aspects of existing experimental data. In our account, the underlying nature of a memory item depends entirely on the characteristics of the population representation, and we provide analytical and numerical insights into critical issues such as multiplicity and binding. We consider representations in which information about individual feature values is partially separate from the information about binding that creates single items out of multiple features. An appropriate balance between these two types of information is required to capture fully the different types of error seen in human experimental data. Our model provides the first principled account of misbinding errors. We also suggest a specific set of stimuli designed to elucidate the representations that subjects actually employ. PMID:25611204

  5. Radiological evaluation of long term complications of oral rehabilitations of thin ridges with titanium blade implants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Diotallevi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the sensitivity of orthopantomography (OPT in the diagnosis of long term complications in oral rehabilitations with blade implants. Materials and methods A total of 235 blade implants in 189 patients, inserted between 1988 and 2003, were retrospectively analyzed. The records consisted of a first OPT taken between January and December 2010, and a second one 12 months after. The evaluation of implant health considered: integrity of the blade, normal radiological representation of the bone around the implant, dense and cortical appearance of bone around the implant collar. The evaluation of radiological complications considered: implant fracture, bone resorption around the implant, recession of the bone around the implant collar. Results The sensitivity of the panoramic evaluation was equal to 100%. The complications detected were 5 cases of periimplantitis, 9 cases of bone pericervical bone recession and 3 cases of fracture of the implant body. In cases of pericervical bone resorption the following radiological check up 12 months after the first one showed the progression of the disease in 6 out of 9 cases, with irreversible implant failure. In subjects with a radiological pattern of implant health there were no complications in the subsequent check up after 12 months. In the subjects with complications the specificity was equal to 100%. Conclusion The radiographic evaluation by the means of OPT has shown high sensitivity in the diagnosis of long term complications of oral rehabilitations with blade implants and allows prompt therapeutic interventions. Radiological complications appeared mostly in the long term check ups and mainly consisted in recession of the bone around the neck or around the entire implant. More rarely implant fractures occurred, which, in the case of blades, sometimes were not associated with any clinical symptoms: therefore, postsurgical evaluation should not be separated from

  6. Evaluation of clinical information modeling tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Conde, Alberto; Austin, Tony; Moreno-Conde, Jesús; Parra-Calderón, Carlos L; Kalra, Dipak

    2016-11-01

    Clinical information models are formal specifications for representing the structure and semantics of the clinical content within electronic health record systems. This research aims to define, test, and validate evaluation metrics for software tools designed to support the processes associated with the definition, management, and implementation of these models. The proposed framework builds on previous research that focused on obtaining agreement on the essential requirements in this area. A set of 50 conformance criteria were defined based on the 20 functional requirements agreed by that consensus and applied to evaluate the currently available tools. Of the 11 initiative developing tools for clinical information modeling identified, 9 were evaluated according to their performance on the evaluation metrics. Results show that functionalities related to management of data types, specifications, metadata, and terminology or ontology bindings have a good level of adoption. Improvements can be made in other areas focused on information modeling and associated processes. Other criteria related to displaying semantic relationships between concepts and communication with terminology servers had low levels of adoption. The proposed evaluation metrics were successfully tested and validated against a representative sample of existing tools. The results identify the need to improve tool support for information modeling and software development processes, especially in those areas related to governance, clinician involvement, and optimizing the technical validation of testing processes. This research confirmed the potential of these evaluation metrics to support decision makers in identifying the most appropriate tool for their organization. Los Modelos de Información Clínica son especificaciones para representar la estructura y características semánticas del contenido clínico en los sistemas de Historia Clínica Electrónica. Esta investigación define, prueba y valida

  7. Eliminating cubic terms in the pseudopotential lattice Boltzmann model for multiphase flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Rongzong; Wu, Huiying; Adams, Nikolaus A.

    2018-05-01

    It is well recognized that there exist additional cubic terms of velocity in the lattice Boltzmann (LB) model based on the standard lattice. In this work, elimination of these cubic terms in the pseudopotential LB model for multiphase flow is investigated, where the force term and density gradient are considered. By retaining high-order (≥3 ) Hermite terms in the equilibrium distribution function and the discrete force term, as well as introducing correction terms in the LB equation, the additional cubic terms of velocity are entirely eliminated. With this technique, the computational simplicity of the pseudopotential LB model is well maintained. Numerical tests, including stationary and moving flat and circular interface problems, are carried out to show the effects of such cubic terms on the simulation of multiphase flow. It is found that the elimination of additional cubic terms is beneficial to reduce the numerical error, especially when the velocity is relatively large. Numerical results also suggest that these cubic terms mainly take effect in the interfacial region and that the density-gradient-related cubic terms are more important than the other cubic terms for multiphase flow.

  8. Short-term generation scheduling model of Fujian hydro system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Jinwen [School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China)], E-mail: dr.jinwen.wang@gmail.com

    2009-04-15

    The Fujian hydropower system (FHS) is one of the provincial hydropower systems with the most complicated hydraulic topology in China. This paper describes an optimization program that is required by Fujian Electric Power Company Ltd. (FEPCL) to aid the shift engineers in making decisions with the short-term hydropower scheduling such that the generation benefit can be maximal. The problem involves 27 reservoirs and is formulated as a nonlinear and discrete programming. It is a very challenging task to solve such a large-scale problem. In this paper, the Lagrangian multipliers are introduced to decompose the primal problem into a hydro subproblem and many individual plant-based subproblems, which are respectively solved by the improved simplex-like method (SLM) and the dynamic programming (DP). A numerical example is given and the derived solution is very close to the optimal one, with the distance in benefit less than 0.004%. All the data needed for the numerical example are presented in detail for further tests and studies from more experts and researchers.

  9. Short-term generation scheduling model of Fujian hydro system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jinwen [School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China)

    2009-04-15

    The Fujian hydropower system (FHS) is one of the provincial hydropower systems with the most complicated hydraulic topology in China. This paper describes an optimization program that is required by Fujian Electric Power Company Ltd. (FEPCL) to aid the shift engineers in making decisions with the short-term hydropower scheduling such that the generation benefit can be maximal. The problem involves 27 reservoirs and is formulated as a nonlinear and discrete programming. It is a very challenging task to solve such a large-scale problem. In this paper, the Lagrangian multipliers are introduced to decompose the primal problem into a hydro subproblem and many individual plant-based subproblems, which are respectively solved by the improved simplex-like method (SLM) and the dynamic programming (DP). A numerical example is given and the derived solution is very close to the optimal one, with the distance in benefit less than 0.004%. All the data needed for the numerical example are presented in detail for further tests and studies from more experts and researchers. (author)

  10. Developing a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadegh Feizollahi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available There are many evidences, which emphasis on the benefits of using new technologies of information and communication in international business and many believe that E-Commerce can help satisfy customer explicit and implicit requirements. Internet shopping is a concept developed after the introduction of electronic commerce. Information technology (IT and its applications, specifically in the realm of the internet and e-mail promoted the development of e-commerce in terms of advertising, motivating and information. However, with the development of new technologies, credit and financial exchange on the internet websites were constructed so to facilitate e-commerce. The proposed study sends a total of 200 questionnaires to the target group (teachers - students - professionals - managers of commercial web sites and it manages to collect 130 questionnaires for final evaluation. Cronbach's alpha test is used for measuring reliability and to evaluate the validity of measurement instruments (questionnaires, and to assure construct validity, confirmatory factor analysis is employed. In addition, in order to analyze the research questions based on the path analysis method and to determine markets selection models, a regular technique is implemented. In the present study, after examining different aspects of e-commerce, we provide a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online marketing in Iran. These findings provide a consistent, targeted and holistic framework for the development of the Internet market in the country.

  11. Evaluating to Solve Educational Problems: An Alternative Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Myles I.; Anderson, Lorin W.

    1979-01-01

    A 19-step general evaluation model is described through its four stages: identifying problems, prescribing program solutions, evaluating the operation of the program, and evaluating the effectiveness of the model. The role of the evaluator in decision making is also explored. (RAO)

  12. A Model for Evaluating Student Clinical Psychomotor Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    And Others; Fiel, Nicholas J.

    1979-01-01

    A long-range plan to evaluate medical students' physical examination skills was undertaken at the Ingham Family Medical Clinic at Michigan State University. The development of the psychomotor skills evaluation model to evaluate the skill of blood pressure measurement, tests of the model's reliability, and the use of the model are described. (JMD)

  13. Modelling cadmium contamination in paddy soils under long-term remediation measures: Model development and stochastic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chi; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping

    2016-09-01

    A pollutant accumulation model (PAM) based on the mass balance theory was developed to simulate long-term changes of heavy metal concentrations in soil. When combined with Monte Carlo simulation, the model can predict the probability distributions of heavy metals in a soil-water-plant system with fluctuating environmental parameters and inputs from multiple pathways. The model was used for evaluating different remediation measures to deal with Cd contamination of paddy soils in Youxian county (Hunan province), China, under five scenarios, namely the default scenario (A), not returning paddy straw to the soil (B), reducing the deposition of Cd (C), liming (D), and integrating several remediation measures (E). The model predicted that the Cd contents of soil can lowered significantly by (B) and those of the plants by (D). However, in the long run, (D) will increase soil Cd. The concentrations of Cd in both soils and rice grains can be effectively reduced by (E), although it will take decades of effort. The history of Cd pollution and the major causes of Cd accumulation in soil were studied by means of sensitivity analysis and retrospective simulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Chaos in long-term behavior of some Bianchi-type VIII models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halpern, P

    1987-01-01

    The long-term behavior of Bianchi-type VIII models with three different types of stress-energy tensors are examined and compared. The vacuum model, a matter-filled model, and a model with an electromagnetic field are considered. In each case the existence of chaotic behavior and transitions to chaotic behavior are discussed.

  15. Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudharsan, D.; Adinarayana, J.; Reddy, D. Raji; Sreenivas, G.; Ninomiya, S.; Hirafuji, M.; Kiura, T.; Tanaka, K.; Desai, U. B.; Merchant, S. N.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare two different rice simulation models—standalone (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT]) and web based (SImulation Model for RIce-Weather relations [SIMRIW])—with agrometeorological data and agronomic parameters for estimation of rice crop production in southern semi-arid tropics of India. Studies were carried out on the BPT5204 rice variety to evaluate two crop simulation models. Long-term experiments were conducted in a research farm of Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad, India. Initially, the results were obtained using 4 years (1994-1997) of data with weather parameters from a local weather station to evaluate DSSAT simulated results with observed values. Linear regression models used for the purpose showed a close relationship between DSSAT and observed yield. Subsequently, yield comparisons were also carried out with SIMRIW and DSSAT, and validated with actual observed values. Realizing the correlation coefficient values of SIMRIW simulation values in acceptable limits, further rice experiments in monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) agricultural seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) were carried out with a location-specific distributed sensor network system. These proximal systems help to simulate dry weight, leaf area index and potential yield by the Java based SIMRIW on a daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal basis. These dynamic parameters are useful to the farming community for necessary decision making in a ubiquitous manner. However, SIMRIW requires fine tuning for better results/decision making.

  16. Evaluation of the performance of DIAS ionospheric forecasting models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsagouri Ioanna

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Nowcasting and forecasting ionospheric products and services for the European region are regularly provided since August 2006 through the European Digital upper Atmosphere Server (DIAS, http://dias.space.noa.gr. Currently, DIAS ionospheric forecasts are based on the online implementation of two models: (i the solar wind driven autoregression model for ionospheric short-term forecast (SWIF, which combines historical and real-time ionospheric observations with solar-wind parameters obtained in real time at the L1 point from NASA ACE spacecraft, and (ii the geomagnetically correlated autoregression model (GCAM, which is a time series forecasting method driven by a synthetic geomagnetic index. In this paper we investigate the operational ability and the accuracy of both DIAS models carrying out a metrics-based evaluation of their performance under all possible conditions. The analysis was established on the systematic comparison between models’ predictions with actual observations obtained over almost one solar cycle (1998–2007 at four European ionospheric locations (Athens, Chilton, Juliusruh and Rome and on the comparison of the models’ performance against two simple prediction strategies, the median- and the persistence-based predictions during storm conditions. The results verify operational validity for both models and quantify their prediction accuracy under all possible conditions in support of operational applications but also of comparative studies in assessing or expanding the current ionospheric forecasting capabilities.

  17. An evaluation of attention models for use in SLAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, Samuel; Karam, Lina

    2013-12-01

    In this paper we study the application of visual saliency models for the simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) problem. We consider visual SLAM, where the location of the camera and a map of the environment can be generated using images from a single moving camera. In visual SLAM, the interest point detector is of key importance. This detector must be invariant to certain image transformations so that features can be matched across di erent frames. Recent work has used a model of human visual attention to detect interest points, however it is unclear as to what is the best attention model for this purpose. To this aim, we compare the performance of interest points from four saliency models (Itti, GBVS, RARE, and AWS) with the performance of four traditional interest point detectors (Harris, Shi-Tomasi, SIFT, and FAST). We evaluate these detectors under several di erent types of image transformation and nd that the Itti saliency model, in general, achieves the best performance in terms of keypoint repeatability.

  18. A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian; Qu, Xiaobo

    2010-11-01

    Work zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events--age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S)--in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The regional climate model as a tool for long-term planning of Quebec water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigon, A.

    2008-01-01

    'Full text': In recent years, important progress has been made in downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model) projections to a resolution where hydrological studies become feasible. Climate change simulations performed with RCMs (Regional Climate Models) have reached a level of confidence that allows us to take advantage of this information in long-term planning of water resources. The RCMs' main advantage consist in their construction based on balanced land as well as atmosphere water and energy budgets, and on their inclusion of feedbacks between the surface and the atmosphere. Such models therefore generate sequences of weather events, providing long time series of hydro-climatic variables that are internally consistent, allowing the analysis of hydrologic regimes. At OURANOS, special attention is placed on the hydrological cycle, given its key role on socioeconomic activities. The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was developed as a potential tool to provide climate projections at the watershed scale. Various analyses performed over small basins in Quebec provide information on the level of confidence we have in the CRCM for use in hydrological studies. Even though this approach is not free of uncertainty, it was found useful by some water resource managers and hence this information should be considered. One of the keys to retain usefulness, despite the associated uncertainties, is to make use of more than a single regional climate projection. This approach will allow for the evaluation of the climate change signal and its associated level of confidence. Such a methodology is already applied by Hydro-Quebec in the long-term planning of its water resources for hydroelectric generation over the Quebec territory. (author)

  20. A review of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy David Ramm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rising sea levels have the potential to alter coastal flooding regimes around the world and local governments are beginning to consider how to manage uncertain coastal change. In doing so, there is increasing recognition that such change is deeply uncertain and unable to be reliably described with probabilities or a small number of scenarios. Characteristics of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options are reviewed and benchmarked against two state-of-the-art international methods suited for conditions of uncertainty (Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. Seven out of the ten Australian case studies assumed the uncertain parameters, such as sea level rise, could be described deterministically or stochastically when identifying risk and evaluating adaptation options across multi-decadal periods. This basis is not considered sophisticated enough for long-term decision-making, implying that Australian practice needs to increase the use of scenarios to explore a much larger uncertainty space when assessing the performance of adaptation options. Two Australian case studies mapped flexible adaptation pathways to manage uncertainty, and there remains an opportunity to incorporate quantitative methodologies to support the identification of risk thresholds. The contextual framing of risk, including the approach taken to identify risk (top-down or bottom-up and treatment of uncertain parameters, were found to be fundamental characteristics that influenced the methodology selected to evaluate adaptation options. The small sample of case studies available suggests that long-term coastal adaptation in Australian is in its infancy and there is a timely opportunity to guide local government towards robust methodologies for developing long-term coastal adaptation plans.

  1. Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew P; Collier, Catherine J; Uthicke, Sven; Ow, Yan X; Langlois, Lucas; O'Brien, Katherine R

    2017-01-04

    When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluated twelve published empirical models for temperature-dependent tropical seagrass photosynthesis, based on two criteria: (1) goodness of fit, and (2) how easily biologically-meaningful parameters can be obtained. All models were formulated in terms of parameters characterising the thermal optimum (T opt ) for maximum photosynthetic rate (P max ). These parameters indicate the upper thermal limits of seagrass photosynthetic capacity, and hence can be used to assess the vulnerability of seagrass to temperature change. Our study exemplifies an approach to model selection which optimises the usefulness of empirical models for both modellers and ecologists alike.

  2. Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew P.; Collier, Catherine J.; Uthicke, Sven; Ow, Yan X.; Langlois, Lucas; O'Brien, Katherine R.

    2017-01-01

    When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluated twelve published empirical models for temperature-dependent tropical seagrass photosynthesis, based on two criteria: (1) goodness of fit, and (2) how easily biologically-meaningful parameters can be obtained. All models were formulated in terms of parameters characterising the thermal optimum (Topt) for maximum photosynthetic rate (Pmax). These parameters indicate the upper thermal limits of seagrass photosynthetic capacity, and hence can be used to assess the vulnerability of seagrass to temperature change. Our study exemplifies an approach to model selection which optimises the usefulness of empirical models for both modellers and ecologists alike.

  3. Long-term behaviour of concrete in water saturated media - Experimental and modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peycelon, H; Mazoin, C

    2004-07-01

    In the context of the nuclear long-lived radioactive waste management, cement-based materials are currently used for waste encapsulation and containers development. Such materials are also likely to be used for engineered barriers in deep repositories. Various types of cement - CEM I, CEM V - have been currently studied, mainly to evaluate materials long-term durability. Studies have been performed on the leaching behavior of hardened cement pastes based on these cements. The effect of temperature is taking into account. Leaching experiments for 25 deg C, 50 deg C and 85 deg C were carried out with a standard test developed at CEA. Experimental results were analyzed and calculations were made to estimate calcium fluxes and degraded thicknesses. Experimental and modelling results were compared. (authors)

  4. Short term decisions for long term problems - The effect of foresight on model based energy systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppo, Ilkka; Strubegger, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the development and demonstration of a limited foresight energy system model. The presented model is implemented as an extension to a large, linear optimization model, MESSAGE. The motivation behind changing the model is to provide an alternative decision framework, where information for the full time frame is not available immediately and sequential decision making under incomplete information is implied. While the traditional optimization framework provides the globally optimal decisions for the modeled problem, the framework presented here may offer a better description of the decision environment, under which decision makers must operate. We further modify the model to accommodate flexible dynamic constraints, which give an option to implement investments faster, albeit with a higher cost. Finally, the operation of the model is demonstrated using a moving window of foresight, with which decisions are taken for the next 30 years, but can be reconsidered later, when more information becomes available. We find that the results demonstrate some of the pitfalls of short term planning, e.g. lagging investments during earlier periods lead to higher requirements later during the century. Furthermore, the energy system remains more reliant on fossil based energy carriers, leading to higher greenhouse gas emissions.

  5. Short-term treatment with flumazenil restores long-term object memory in a mouse model of Down syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colas, Damien; Chuluun, Bayarsaikhan; Garner, Craig C; Heller, H Craig

    2017-04-01

    Down syndrome (DS) is a common genetic cause of intellectual disability yet no pro-cognitive drug therapies are approved for human use. Mechanistic studies in a mouse model of DS (Ts65Dn mice) demonstrate that impaired cognitive function is due to excessive neuronal inhibitory tone. These deficits are normalized by chronic, short-term low doses of GABA A receptor (GABA A R) antagonists in adult animals, but none of the compounds investigated are approved for human use. We explored the therapeutic potential of flumazenil (FLUM), a GABA A R antagonist working at the benzodiazepine binding site that has FDA approval. Long-term memory was assessed by the Novel Object Recognition (NOR) testing in Ts65Dn mice after acute or short-term chronic treatment with FLUM. Short-term, low, chronic dose regimens of FLUM elicit long-lasting (>1week) normalization of cognitive function in both young and aged mice. FLUM at low dosages produces long lasting cognitive improvements and has the potential of fulfilling an unmet therapeutic need in DS. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Long-term records and modelling of acidification, recovery and liming at Lake Hovvatn, Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hindar, A. [Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Grimstad (Norway); Wright, R.F. [Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Oslo (Norway)

    2005-11-01

    Scenarios for acidification in Europe have shown that large parts of southern Norway will be negatively impacted by sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions in the future. Long-term data of acidification and recovery as well as the effects of a liming program at Lake Store Hovvatn were presented in this paper, along with data collected from Lake Lille Hovvatn as unlimed reference. Water samples from the lakes were collected 5 times annually from varying depths. Total organic carbon was measured after wet chemical oxidation by infrared detection. Acidification hindcasts and forecasts for the period 1870-2050 were conducted with the dynamic model MAGIC, which simulated soil solution and surface water chemistry to predict average concentrations of the major ions. The model showed good agreement with major changes in water chemistry observed over the past 30 years, as well simulating pH and concentrations of inorganic aluminium (Al). The data were evaluated in terms of the prospects for the re-establishment of a self-sustaining brown trout population. All liming efforts at Lake Store Hovvatn resulted in improvements in water quality. However, the stocked fish showed excellent survival and growth rates after liming but no natural recruitment, which suggested that fish eggs at shallow depths under ice cover are a sensitive biological indicator. Continuous records of pH revealed serious difficulties in maintaining adequate water quality at shallow depths in winter. While various liming techniques were discussed, it was concluded that the problem of surface water acidification in southern Norway is not solved, and a long-term strategy is called for. 45 refs., 5 tabs., 6 figs.

  7. A novel TRNSYS type for short-term borehole heat exchanger simulation: B2G model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Rosa, Mattia; Ruiz-Calvo, Félix; Corberán, José M.; Montagud, Carla; Tagliafico, Luca A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel dynamic borehole heat exchanger model is presented. • Theoretical approach for model parameters calculation is described. • The short-term model is validated against experimental data of a real GSHP. • Strong dynamic conditions due to the ON–OFF regulation are investigated. - Abstract: Models of ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are used as an aid for the correct design and optimization of the system. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop models which correctly reproduce the dynamic thermal behavior of each component in a short-term basis. Since the borehole heat exchanger (BHE) is one of the main components, special attention should be paid to ensuring a good accuracy on the prediction of the short-term response of the boreholes. The BHE models found in literature which are suitable for short-term simulations usually present high computational costs. In this work, a novel TRNSYS type implementing a borehole-to-ground (B2G) model, developed for modeling the short-term dynamic performance of a BHE with low computational cost, is presented. The model has been validated against experimental data from a GSHP system located at Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain. Validation results show the ability of the model to reproduce the short-term behavior of the borehole, both for a step-test and under normal operating conditions

  8. Comfrey (Symphytum Officinale. l.) and Experimental Hepatic Carcinogenesis: A Short-term Carcinogenesis Model Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Maria Fernanda Pereira Lavieri; de Oliveira Massoco, Cristina; Xavier, José Guilherme; Bonamin, Leoni Villano

    2010-06-01

    Comfrey or Symphytum officinale (L.) (Boraginaceae) is a very popular plant used for therapeutic purposes. Since the 1980s, its effects have been studied in long-term carcinogenesis studies, in which Comfrey extract is administered at high doses during several months and the neoplastic hepatic lesions are evaluated. However, the literature on this topic is very poor considering the studies performed under short-term carcinogenesis protocols, such as the 'resistant hepatocyte model' (RHM). In these studies, it is possible to observe easily the phenomena related to the early phases of tumor development, since pre-neoplastic lesions (PNLs) rise in about 1-2 months of chemical induction. Herein, the effects of chronic oral treatment of rats with 10% Comfrey ethanolic extract were evaluated in a RHM. Wistar rats were sequentially treated with N-nitrosodiethylamine (ip) and 2-acetilaminofluorene (po), and submitted to hepatectomy to induce carcinogenesis promotion. Macroscopic/microscopic quantitative analysis of PNL was performed. Non-parametric statistical tests (Mann-Whitney and χ(2)) were used, and the level of significance was set at P ≤ 0.05. Comfrey treatment reduced the number of pre-neoplastic macroscopic lesions up to 1 mm (P ≤ 0.05), the percentage of oval cells (P = 0.0001) and mitotic figures (P = 0.007), as well as the number of Proliferating Cell Nuclear Antigen (PCNA) positive cells (P = 0.0001) and acidophilic pre-neoplastic nodules (P = 0.05). On the other hand, the percentage of cells presenting megalocytosis (P = 0.0001) and vacuolar degeneration (P = 0.0001) was increased. Scores of fibrosis, glycogen stores and the number of nucleolus organizing regions were not altered. The study indicated that oral treatment of rats with 10% Comfrey alcoholic extract reduced cell proliferation in this model.

  9. Long-term power generation expansion planning with short-term demand response: Model, algorithms, implementation, and electricity policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, Timo

    Electric sector models are powerful tools that guide policy makers and stakeholders. Long-term power generation expansion planning models are a prominent example and determine a capacity expansion for an existing power system over a long planning horizon. With the changes in the power industry away from monopolies and regulation, the focus of these models has shifted to competing electric companies maximizing their profit in a deregulated electricity market. In recent years, consumers have started to participate in demand response programs, actively influencing electricity load and price in the power system. We introduce a model that features investment and retirement decisions over a long planning horizon of more than 20 years, as well as an hourly representation of day-ahead electricity markets in which sellers of electricity face buyers. This combination makes our model both unique and challenging to solve. Decomposition algorithms, and especially Benders decomposition, can exploit the model structure. We present a novel method that can be seen as an alternative to generalized Benders decomposition and relies on dynamic linear overestimation. We prove its finite convergence and present computational results, demonstrating its superiority over traditional approaches. In certain special cases of our model, all necessary solution values in the decomposition algorithms can be directly calculated and solving mathematical programming problems becomes entirely obsolete. This leads to highly efficient algorithms that drastically outperform their programming problem-based counterparts. Furthermore, we discuss the implementation of all tailored algorithms and the challenges from a modeling software developer's standpoint, providing an insider's look into the modeling language GAMS. Finally, we apply our model to the Texas power system and design two electricity policies motivated by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's recently proposed CO2 emissions targets for the

  10. Phenomenological study on crystalline rock for evaluating of long-term behavior (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okubo, Seisuke; Fukui, Katsunori; Hashiba, Kimihiro; Hikima, Ryoichi; Tanno, Takeo; Sanada, Hiroyuki; Matsui, Hiroya; Sato, Toshinori

    2012-02-01

    Rock, under in situ conditions, shows time-dependent behavior such as creep/relaxation. With respect to high-level radioactive waste disposal, knowledge of the long-term mechanical stability of shafts and galleries excavated in rock is required, not only during construction and operation but also over a period of thousands of years after closure. Therefore, it is very important to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock for evaluating long-term mechanical stability. The purpose of this study is determining the mechanisms of time-dependent behavior of rock by precise testing, observation and measurement in order to develop methods for evaluating long-term mechanical stability of a rock mass. In the previous work, testing techniques have been established and basic evaluation methods were developed. Recently, some parameters needed for simulation of time-dependent behavior were determined at the Mizunami underground research facilities. However, sufficient data to check the reliability of the evaluation method for these parameters were not available. This report describes the results of the activities in fiscal year 2010. In Chapter 1, we provide an overview and the background to this study. In Chapter 2, the results of a long-term creep test on Tage tuff, started in fiscal year 1997 are described. In Chapter 3, the relation of loading-rate dependency of strength and stress dependency of creep life, the relation of time dependency, probability distribution and size effects are discussed to indicate more clearly the meaning of the value of 'n' to express the degree of time dependency of the rock. Furthermore, past studies concerning the value of 'n' are reviewed and the tests that could be carried out in future studies of mechanical properties and time dependency of Toki granite are considered in this Chapter. In Chapter 4, failure criterions of a rock mass considering time dependency are discussed. In Chapter 5, the FEM analysis implemented with a generalized

  11. The role of the anomaly cancellation mechanism in the evaluation of the radiatively induced Chern-Simons term in extended QED

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Battistel, O.A.; Dallabona, G.

    2004-01-01

    We consider the possible role played by the anomaly cancellation mechanism in the evaluation of the radiatively induced Chern-Simons (CS) term, arising from the Lorentz and CPT non-invariant fermionic sector, of an extended version of QED. We explicit evaluate the most general mathematical structure associated to the AVV triangle amplitude, closely related to the one involved in the CS term evaluation, using for this purposes an alternative calculational strategy to handle divergences in QFT's. We show that the requirement of consistency with the choices made in the construction of the Standard Model's renormalizability, in the evaluation of the AVV Green function, leave no room for a nonvanishing radiatively induced CS term, independently of the regularization prescription or equivalent philosophy adopted, in accordance with what was previously conjectured by other authors. (orig.)

  12. Management of remanent lifetime. Short-term benefits of the maintenance evaluation and improvement programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sainero Garcia, J.

    1993-01-01

    Remanent Lifetime Management, which is scientifically based on knowing the degradatory phenomena associated with aging, today allows us to optimize plant life through a long-term maintenance strategy combining preventive maintenance and condition monitoring programmes. Within a project for Remanent Lifetime Management (RLM), the determination of methods of control and mitigation of degradations due to aging depends on the programme of Maintenance Evaluation and Improvement (MEI). This programme, underpinned by the analysis of degradatory phenomena to which plant components are subjected, evaluates current maintenance practices and defines the complementary actions which would facilitate establishment of a long-term strategy to control aging. Together with this main objective of the RLM project, the MEI programme achieves short-term benefits since, right from the beginning, it offers solutions to mitigate and guard against degradations in crucial plant components, and generally sets out a programme to control aging. The MEI programme further serves as a tool to reach the final objectives of the new 10CFR50.65 rule, 'Requirements for Maintenance Programs for NPPs'. The MEI always offers the option should the Utility Owner decide to extend plant life. (author)

  13. Mapping the course of the EU "Power Target Model"... on its own terms

    OpenAIRE

    GLACHANT, Jean-Michel

    2016-01-01

    The European Union took more than 20 years to start defining a common market design for its internal electricity market: a European Power Target Model. And, a further 10 years to fully implement it. Meanwhile, the reference generation set of that model has shifted from CCGT burning gas to RES units transforming intermittent natural resources. Could the existing EU target model continue to work well for the short- term operation and long-term investment? If not, can the existing EU institution...

  14. Random fractional ultrapulsed CO2 resurfacing of photodamaged facial skin: long-term evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tretti Clementoni, Matteo; Galimberti, Michela; Tourlaki, Athanasia; Catenacci, Maximilian; Lavagno, Rosalia; Bencini, Pier Luca

    2013-02-01

    Although numerous papers have recently been published on ablative fractional resurfacing, there is a lack of information in literature on very long-term results. The aim of this retrospective study is to evaluate the efficacy, adverse side effects, and long-term results of a random fractional ultrapulsed CO2 laser on a large population with photodamaged facial skin. Three hundred twelve patients with facial photodamaged skin were enrolled and underwent a single full-face treatment. Six aspects of photodamaged skin were recorded using a 5 point scale at 3, 6, and 24 months after the treatment. The results were compared with a non-parametric statistical test, the Wilcoxon's exact test. Three hundred one patients completed the study. All analyzed features showed a significant statistical improvement 3 months after the procedure. Three months later all features, except for pigmentations, once again showed a significant statistical improvement. Results after 24 months were similar to those assessed 18 months before. No long-term or other serious complications were observed. From the significant number of patients analyzed, long-term results demonstrate not only how fractional ultrapulsed CO2 resurfacing can achieve good results on photodamaged facial skin but also how these results can be considered stable 2 years after the procedure.

  15. Modelling and evaluating against the violent insider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortney, D.S.; Al-Ayat, R.A.; Saleh, R.A.

    1991-01-01

    The violent insider threat poses a special challenge to facilities protecting special nuclear material from theft or diversion. These insiders could potentially behave as nonviolent insiders to deceitfully defeat certain safeguards elements and use violence to forcefully defeat hardware or personnel. While several vulnerability assessment tools are available to deal with the nonviolent insider, very limited effort has been directed to developing analysis tools for the violent threat. In this paper, the authors present an approach using the results of a vulnerability assessment for nonviolent insiders to evaluate certain violent insider scenarios. Since existing tools do not explicitly consider violent insiders, the approach is intended for experienced safeguards analysts and relies on the analyst to brainstorm possible violent actions, to assign detection probabilities, and to ensure consistency. The authors then discuss our efforts in developing an automated tool for assessing the vulnerability against those violent insiders who are willing to use force against barriers, but who are unwilling to kill or be killed. Specifically, the authors discuss our efforts in developing databases for violent insiders penetrating barriers, algorithms for considering the entry of contraband, and modelling issues in considering the use of violence

  16. Modelling and evaluating against the violent insider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortney, D.S.; Al-Ayat, R.A.; Saleh, R.A.

    1991-07-01

    The violent insider threat poses a special challenge to facilities protecting special nuclear material from theft or diversion. These insiders could potentially behave as nonviolent insiders to deceitfully defeat certain safeguards elements and use violence to forcefully defeat hardware or personnel. While several vulnerability assessment tools are available to deal with the nonviolent insider, very limited effort has been directed to developing analysis tools for the violent threat. In this paper, we present an approach using the results of a vulnerability assessment for nonviolent insiders to evaluate certain violent insider scenarios. Since existing tools do not explicitly consider violent insiders, the approach is intended for experienced safeguards analysts and relies on the analyst to brainstorm possible violent actions, to assign detection probabilities, and to ensure consistency. We then discuss our efforts in developing an automated tool for assessing the vulnerability against those violent insiders who are willing to use force against barriers, but who are unwilling to kill or be killed. Specifically, we discuss our efforts in developing databases for violent insiders penetrating barriers, algorithms for considering the entry of contraband, and modelling issues in considering the use of violence

  17. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    The model performance evaluation consists of metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors.

  18. Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinson, P.; Girard, R.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Presentation of the desirable properties of wind power generation scenarios. ► Description of various evaluation frameworks (univariate, multivariate, diagnostic). ► Highlighting of the properties of current approaches to scenario generation. ► Guidelines for future evaluation/benchmark exercises. -- Abstract: Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.

  19. Structural Performance Evaluation of Tsing MA Bridge Deck Using Long-Term Monitoring Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Y. Q.; Xia, H. W.; Ko, J. M.

    The Tsing Ma Bridge in Hong Kong is suspension bridge with a main span of 1377 m carrying both highway and railway traffic. After completing its construction in 1997, the bridge was instrumented by the Hong Kong SAR Government Highways Department with a long-term structural health monitoring system comprising about 300 sensors permanently installed on the bridge. As part of this monitoring system, a total of 110 strain gauges have been installed to measure strain at the deck cross-sections and bearings. In this study, a method for real-time structural performance evaluation of the stiffening deck system making use of long-term strain measurement data is proposed and verified using the strain monitoring data from a typical deck cross-section of the Tsing Ma Bridge.

  20. Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Girard, R.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multi-stage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benets from...... their use in decision-making. So far however, their verication is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verication tools, as well...... as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verication are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools....

  1. Airline service quality evaluation: A review on concepts and models

    OpenAIRE

    Navid Haghighat

    2017-01-01

    This paper reviews different major service quality concept and models which led to great developments in evaluating service quality with focusing on improvement process of the models through discussing criticisms of each model. Criticisms against these models are discussed to clarify development steps of newer models which led to the improvement of airline service quality models. The precise and accurate evaluation of service quality needs utilizing a reliable concept with comprehensive crite...

  2. An Evaluation of Teachers' Attitudes and Beliefs Levels on Classroom Control in Terms of Teachers' Sense of Efficacy (The Sample of Biology Teachers in Turkey)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt, Hakan

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate biology teachers' attitudes and belief levels on classroom control in terms of teachers' sense of efficacy. The screening model was used in the study. The study group was comprised of 135 biology teachers. In this study, Teachers' Sense of Efficacy Scale (TSES) and The Attitudes and Beliefs on Classroom Control…

  3. Semantic Modeling for Exposomics with Exploratory Evaluation in Clinical Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung-wei Fan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Exposome is a critical dimension in the precision medicine paradigm. Effective representation of exposomics knowledge is instrumental to melding nongenetic factors into data analytics for clinical research. There is still limited work in (1 modeling exposome entities and relations with proper integration to mainstream ontologies and (2 systematically studying their presence in clinical context. Through selected ontological relations, we developed a template-driven approach to identifying exposome concepts from the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS. The derived concepts were evaluated in terms of literature coverage and the ability to assist in annotating clinical text. The generated semantic model represents rich domain knowledge about exposure events (454 pairs of relations between exposure and outcome. Additionally, a list of 5667 disorder concepts with microbial etiology was created for inferred pathogen exposures. The model consistently covered about 90% of PubMed literature on exposure-induced iatrogenic diseases over 10 years (2001–2010. The model contributed to the efficiency of exposome annotation in clinical text by filtering out 78% of irrelevant machine annotations. Analysis into 50 annotated discharge summaries helped advance our understanding of the exposome information in clinical text. This pilot study demonstrated feasibility of semiautomatically developing a useful semantic resource for exposomics.

  4. Evaluation of modelling body burden of Cs-137

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, U; Nordlinder, S

    1996-05-01

    Within the IAEA/CEC VAMP-program one working group studied the precision in dose assessment models when calculating body burden of {sup 137}Cs as a result of exposure through multiple exposure pathways. One scenario used data from southern Finland regarding contamination of various media due to the fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In this study, a time dependent multiple exposure pathway model was constructed based on compartment theory. Uncertainties in model responses due to uncertainties in input parameter values were studied. The initial predictions for body burden were good, within a factor of 2 of the observed, while the time dynamics of levels in milk and meat did not agree satisfactorily. Some results, nevertheless, showed good agreement with observations due to compensatory effects. After disclosure of additional observational data, major reasons for mispredictions were identified as lack of consideration of time dependence of fixation of {sup 137}Cs in soils, and the selection of parameter values. When correction of this was made, a close agreement between predictions and observations was obtained. This study shows that the dose contribution due to {sup 137}Cs in food products from the seminatural environment is important for long-term exposure to man. The evaluation provided a basis for improvements of crucial parts in the model. 14 refs, 18 figs, 8 tabs.

  5. Evaluation of modelling body burden of Cs-137

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergstroem, U.; Nordlinder, S.

    1996-05-01

    Within the IAEA/CEC VAMP-program one working group studied the precision in dose assessment models when calculating body burden of 137 Cs as a result of exposure through multiple exposure pathways. One scenario used data from southern Finland regarding contamination of various media due to the fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In this study, a time dependent multiple exposure pathway model was constructed based on compartment theory. Uncertainties in model responses due to uncertainties in input parameter values were studied. The initial predictions for body burden were good, within a factor of 2 of the observed, while the time dynamics of levels in milk and meat did not agree satisfactorily. Some results, nevertheless, showed good agreement with observations due to compensatory effects. After disclosure of additional observational data, major reasons for mispredictions were identified as lack of consideration of time dependence of fixation of 137 Cs in soils, and the selection of parameter values. When correction of this was made, a close agreement between predictions and observations was obtained. This study shows that the dose contribution due to 137 Cs in food products from the seminatural environment is important for long-term exposure to man. The evaluation provided a basis for improvements of crucial parts in the model. 14 refs, 18 figs, 8 tabs

  6. visCOS: An R-package to evaluate model performance of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Daniel; Herrnegger, Mathew; Wesemann, Johannes; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    The evaluation of model performance is a central part of (hydrological) modelling. Much attention has been given to the development of evaluation criteria and diagnostic frameworks. (Klemeš, 1986; Gupta et al., 2008; among many others). Nevertheless, many applications exist for which objective functions do not yet provide satisfying summaries. Thus, the necessity to visualize results arises in order to explore a wider range of model capacities, be it strengths or deficiencies. Visualizations are usually devised for specific projects and these efforts are often not distributed to a broader community (e.g. via open source software packages). Hence, the opportunity to explicitly discuss a state-of-the-art presentation technique is often missed. We therefore present a comprehensive R-package for evaluating model performance by visualizing and exploring different aspects of hydrological time-series. The presented package comprises a set of useful plots and visualization methods, which complement existing packages, such as hydroGOF (Zambrano-Bigiarini et al., 2012). It is derived from practical applications of the hydrological models COSERO and COSEROreg (Kling et al., 2014). visCOS, providing an interface in R, represents an easy-to-use software package for visualizing and assessing model performance and can be implemented in the process of model calibration or model development. The package provides functions to load hydrological data into R, clean the data, process, visualize, explore and finally save the results in a consistent way. Together with an interactive zoom function of the time series, an online calculation of the objective functions for variable time-windows is included. Common hydrological objective functions, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency, can also be evaluated and visualized in different ways for defined sub-periods like hydrological years or seasonal sections. Many hydrologists use long-term water-balances as a

  7. Evaluation of short- and long-term fission product sources at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchida, Shunsuke; Naitoh, Masanori; Suzuki, Hiroaki; Okada, Hidetoshi; Pellegrini, Marco; Achilli, Andrea; Hanamoto, Yukio; Sasaki, Hiroaki

    2014-01-01

    Research on fission product (FP) behaviors used to be one of the most important subjects in water chemistry but it is not done nowadays as a consequence of the increased integrity of nuclear fuels and the minimization of FP release into the environment. Evaluation of FP release into the environment is still one of the key issues for severe accident analysis, though. Although there have been a long quiet period in nuclear safety research, how to detect initiation of severe accidents, how to prevent them and how to mitigate them are still important subjects for nuclear engineering, and how to control the severe accidents after their occurrence, especially how to control FP release into the environment, has seldom been discussed in the water chemistry group recently. The paper is intended to address the issue of fewer activities for FP studies. FP sources are divided into two categories, short- and long-term FP sources. Short-term FP source can be evaluated based on the measured data obtained from monitoring posts (MPs), which give us clear evidence on the importance of radioactive iodine and cesium releases into the environment. It used to be considered that during primary containment vessel (PCV) venting, release of each element, e.g., iodine and cesium, was determined by the suppression pool scrubbing efficiency and most of the cesium would likely be removed in the pool due to its large scrubbing efficiency. But as a result of analyzing the MP data at early stage of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, it was confirmed that the releases of both elements were in proportion to their inventories in the reactors and their scrubbing efficiencies were almost the same. The scrubbing efficiency which increased with the pool water temperature became almost the same for iodine and cesium around the pool water boiling temperature. As a result of the mass balance analysis for FPs in the contaminated water accumulated in the Fukushima Daiichi plant site, it

  8. Studying Term Structure of SHIBOR with the Two-Factor Vasicek Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaoqun Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of the Chinese interest rate market, SHIBOR is playing an increasingly important role. Based on principal component analysing SHIBOR, a two-factor Vasicek model is established to portray the change in SHIBOR with different terms. And parameters are estimated by using the Kalman filter. The model is also used to fit and forecast SHIBOR with different terms. The results show that two-factor Vasicek model fits SHIBOR well, especially for SHIBOR in terms of three months or more.

  9. Generalizing a unified model of dark matter, dark energy, and inflation with a noncanonical kinetic term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De-Santiago, Josue; Cervantes-Cota, Jorge L.

    2011-01-01

    We study a unification model for dark energy, dark matter, and inflation with a single scalar field with noncanonical kinetic term. In this model, the kinetic term of the Lagrangian accounts for the dark matter and dark energy, and at early epochs, a quadratic potential accounts for slow roll inflation. The present work is an extension to the work by Bose and Majumdar [Phys. Rev. D 79, 103517 (2009).] with a more general kinetic term that was proposed by Chimento in Phys. Rev. D 69, 123517 (2004). We demonstrate that the model is viable at the background and linear perturbation levels.

  10. Long-term evaluation for engineered capping (cover) of radioactive repository or landfill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohd Jamil Hashim; Mohd Abdul Wahab Yusof

    2010-01-01

    This paper discussed the long-term evaluation of engineered capping for radioactive repository. It was done to gather knowledge and understand the suitability of granitic residual soil. Its resistance to hydrologic cycle and durability through a period of 100 to 300 years was checked. A hydrological program was used with forecast weather and manual checking all layers for hydraulic gradient to verify the results. Overall result shown that the grantic residual soil is able to last a few centuries before surcome to infiltration. (author)

  11. A facility for long term evaluation and quality assurance of LHCb Vertex Detector modules

    CERN Document Server

    Marinho, F; Dimattia, R; Doherty, F; Dumps, R; Gersabeck, M; Melone, J; Parkes, C; Saavedra, A; Tobin, M

    2007-01-01

    This note describes the facility developed for long term evaluation and quality assurance of the LHCb Vertex Detector modules, known as the 'Glasgow Burn-in System'. This facility was developed to ensure that the modules conform to stringent quality levels. The system was able to uncover any weaknesses that could be introduced during the manufacturing and assembly of the components or during the transport of the modules to CERN. The system consisted of: a high resolution microscope for visual inspections; and a burn-in system to operate cooled modules in vacuum. The main components of the burn-in system were a vacuum system, a cooling system and a DAQ system.

  12. Evaluation of flexible membrane liners as long-term barriers for uranium mill tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-07-01

    The National Uranium Tailings Program has commissioned a study to evaluate flexible membrane liners (geomembranes) as long-term barriers for Canadian uranium mill tailings. This study reviews the common liner type and addresses flexible liners (polymeric membranes and asphalt) in detail. Liner fabrication, design, installation, and performance are reviewed. Conceptual designs are presented for basins to accommodate 20 years accumulation of uranium tailings from mills in Elliot Lake and southeastern Athabasca. Nine polymeric and three asphalt liner types have been considered with respect to the physical and chemical environment in the uranium producing areas of Canada. All materials indicate good chemical resistance to uranium wastes but are subject to installation problems

  13. Evaluating the Wald entropy from two-derivative terms in quadratic actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brustein, Ram; Gorbonos, Dan; Hadad, Merav; Medved, A. J. M.

    2011-01-01

    We evaluate the Wald Noether charge entropy for a black hole in generalized theories of gravity. Expanding the Lagrangian to second order in gravitational perturbations, we show that contributions to the entropy density originate only from the coefficients of two-derivative terms. The same considerations are extended to include matter fields and to show that arbitrary powers of matter fields and their symmetrized covariant derivatives cannot contribute to the entropy density. We also explain how to use the linearized gravitational field equation rather than quadratic actions to obtain the same results. Several explicit examples are presented that allow us to clarify subtle points in the derivation and application of our method.

  14. [Contract focused short-term group therapy--results of an evaluation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschberg, Rainer; Meyer, Birgit

    2010-01-01

    A short description outlines the development of commission focused short-term therapy (AFoG) for children and adolescents. Subsequently the generic principles of psychotherapy are applied to AFoG in order to underline the basic assumptions of this variation of systemic group therapy. Behavioural changes arising in different contexts (school, family, group therapy) show the need for an appropriate flexibility of group therapy techniques. The evaluation was accomplished using the Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL 4-18) at the beginning and 3 month after the end of the group therapy. The results show positive effects which finally are discussed critically.

  15. Long-term leaching from MSWI air-pollution-control residues: Leaching characterization and modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyks, Jiri; Astrup, Thomas; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2009-01-01

    Long-term leaching of Ca, Fe, Mg, K, Na, S, Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Mo, Sb, Si, Sri, Sr, Ti, V, P, Cl, and dissolved organic carbon from two different municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) air-pollution-control residues was monitored during 24 months of column percolat......Long-term leaching of Ca, Fe, Mg, K, Na, S, Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Mo, Sb, Si, Sri, Sr, Ti, V, P, Cl, and dissolved organic carbon from two different municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) air-pollution-control residues was monitored during 24 months of column...... percolation experiments; liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratios of 200-250 L/kg corresponding to more than 10,000 years in a conventional landfill were reached. Less than 2% of the initially present As, Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, and Sb had leached during the Course of the experiments. Concentrations of Cd, Fe, Mg, Hg, Mn, Ni, Co......, Sn, Ti, and P were generally bellow 1 mu g/L; overall less than 1% of their mass leached. Column leaching data were further used in a two-step geochemical modeling in PHREEQC in order to (i) identify solubility controlling minerals and (ii) evaluate their interactions in a water-percolated column...

  16. Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

    2017-04-01

    Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

  17. Probabilistic evaluation of process model matching techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuss, Elena; Leopold, Henrik; van der Aa, Han; Stuckenschmidt, Heiner; Reijers, Hajo A.

    2016-01-01

    Process model matching refers to the automatic identification of corresponding activities between two process models. It represents the basis for many advanced process model analysis techniques such as the identification of similar process parts or process model search. A central problem is how to

  18. Evaluation of radiobiological effects in 3 distinct biological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, J.; Costa, P.; Cunha, L.; Metello, L.F.; Carvalho, A.P.; Vasconcelos, V.; Genesio, P.; Ponte, F.; Costa, P.S.; Crespo, P.

    2015-01-01

    Full text of publication follows. The present work aims at sharing the process of development of advanced biological models to study radiobiological effects. Recognizing several known limitations and difficulties of the current monolayer cellular models, as well as the increasing difficulties to use advanced biological models, our group has been developing advanced biological alternative models, namely three-dimensional cell cultures and a less explored animal model (the Zebra fish - Danio rerio - which allows the access to inter-generational data, while characterized by a great genetic homology towards the humans). These 3 models (monolayer cellular model, three-dimensional cell cultures and zebra fish) were externally irradiated with 100 mGy, 500 mGy or 1 Gy. The consequences of that irradiation were studied using cellular and molecular tests. Our previous experimental studies with 100 mGy external gamma irradiation of HepG2 monolayer cells showed a slight increase in the proliferation rate 24 h, 48 h and 72 h post irradiation. These results also pointed into the presence of certain bystander effects 72 h post irradiation, constituting the starting point for the need of a more accurate analysis realized with this work. At this stage, we continue focused on the acute biological effects. Obtained results, namely MTT and clonogenic assays for evaluating cellular metabolic activity and proliferation in the in vitro models, as well as proteomics for the evaluation of in vivo effects will be presented, discussed and explained. Several hypotheses will be presented and defended based on the facts previously demonstrated. This work aims at sharing the actual state and the results already available from this medium-term project, building the proof of the added value on applying these advanced models, while demonstrating the strongest and weakest points from all of them (so allowing the comparison between them and to base the subsequent choice for research groups starting

  19. The use of nonlinear regression analysis for integrating pollutant concentration measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling for source term estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, L.L.; Freis, R.P.; Peters, L.G.; Gudiksen, P.H.; Pitovranov, S.E.

    1993-01-01

    The accuracy associated with assessing the environmental consequences of an accidental release of radioactivity is highly dependent on the knowledge of the source term characteristics, which are generally poorly known. The development of an automated numerical technique that integrates the radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling for more accurate source term estimation is reported. Often, this process of parameter estimation is performed by an emergency response assessor, who takes an intelligent first guess at the model parameters, then, comparing the model results with whatever measurements are available, makes an intuitive, informed next guess of the model parameters. This process may be repeated any number of times until the assessor feels that the model results are reasonable in terms of the measured observations. A new approach, based on a nonlinear least-squares regression scheme coupled with the existing Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability three-dimensional atmospheric dispersion models, is to supplement the assessor's intuition with automated mathematical methods that do not significantly increase the response time of the existing predictive models. The viability of the approach is evaluated by estimation of the known SF 6 tracer release rates associated with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport Studies tracer experiments conducted at the Savannah River Laboratory during 1983. These 19 experiments resulted in 14 successful, separate tracer releases with sampling of the tracer plumes along the cross-plume arc situated ∼30 km from the release site

  20. Educational Program Evaluation Model, From the Perspective of the New Theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soleiman Ahmady

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: This study is focused on common theories that influenced the history of program evaluation and introduce the educational program evaluation proposal format based on the updated theory. Methods: Literature searches were carried out in March-December 2010 with a combination of key words, MeSH terms and other free text terms as suitable for the purpose. A comprehensive search strategy was developed to search Medline by the PubMed interface, ERIC (Education Resources Information Center and the main journal of medical education regarding current evaluation models and theories. We included all study designs in our study. We found 810 articles related to our topic, and finally 63 with the full text article included. We compared documents and used expert consensus for selection the best model. Results: We found that the complexity theory using logic model suggests compatible evaluation proposal formats, especially with new medical education programs. Common components of a logic model are: situation, inputs, outputs, and outcomes that our proposal format is based on. Its contents are: title page, cover letter, situation and background, introduction and rationale, project description, evaluation design, evaluation methodology, reporting, program evaluation management, timeline, evaluation budget based on the best evidences, and supporting documents. Conclusion: We found that the logic model is used for evaluation program planning in many places, but more research is needed to see if it is suitable for our context.

  1. Application of Grey Model GM(1, 1) to Ultra Short-Term Predictions of Universal Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yu; Guo, Min; Zhao, Danning; Cai, Hongbing; Hu, Dandan

    2016-03-01

    A mathematical model known as one-order one-variable grey differential equation model GM(1, 1) has been herein employed successfully for the ultra short-term (advantage is that the developed method is easy to use. All these reveal a great potential of the GM(1, 1) model for UT1-UTC predictions.

  2. The Communication Model and the Nature of Change in Terms of Deforestation in China since 1949

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Dexin; Chao, Chin-Chung

    2010-01-01

    This article explores the communication model and nature of change in terms of deforestation in China since 1949. Through Lasswell's communication model and the theory of change and via historical analysis and extended literature review, we have discovered: First, Mao's government adopted an effective one-way top-down communication model with…

  3. Nuclear safety culture evaluation model based on SSE-CMM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xiaohua; Liu Zhenghai; Liu Zhiming; Wan Yaping; Peng Guojian

    2012-01-01

    Safety culture, which is of great significance to establish safety objectives, characterizes level of enterprise safety production and development. Traditional safety culture evaluation models emphasis on thinking and behavior of individual and organization, and pay attention to evaluation results while ignore process. Moreover, determining evaluation indicators lacks objective evidence. A novel multidimensional safety culture evaluation model, which has scientific and completeness, is addressed by building an preliminary mapping between safety culture and SSE-CMM's (Systems Security Engineering Capability Maturity Model) process area and generic practice. The model focuses on enterprise system security engineering process evaluation and provides new ideas and scientific evidences for the study of safety culture. (authors)

  4. Bardeen-anomaly and Wess-Zumino term in the supersymmetric standard model

    CERN Document Server

    Ferrara, Sergio; Porrati, Massimo; Stora, Raymond Félix

    1994-01-01

    We construct the Bardeen anomaly and its related Wess-Zumino term in the supersymmetric standard model. In particular we show that it can be written in terms of a composite linear superfield related to supersymmetrized Chern-Simons forms, in very much the same way as the Green-Schwarz term in four-dimensional string theory. Some physical applications, such as the contribution to the g-2 of gauginos when a heavy top is integrated out, are briefly discussed.

  5. Modeling and mining term association for improving biomedical information retrieval performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Qinmin; Huang, Jimmy Xiangji; Hu, Xiaohua

    2012-06-11

    The growth of the biomedical information requires most information retrieval systems to provide short and specific answers in response to complex user queries. Semantic information in the form of free text that is structured in a way makes it straightforward for humans to read but more difficult for computers to interpret automatically and search efficiently. One of the reasons is that most traditional information retrieval models assume terms are conditionally independent given a document/passage. Therefore, we are motivated to consider term associations within different contexts to help the models understand semantic information and use it for improving biomedical information retrieval performance. We propose a term association approach to discover term associations among the keywords from a query. The experiments are conducted on the TREC 2004-2007 Genomics data sets and the TREC 2004 HARD data set. The proposed approach is promising and achieves superiority over the baselines and the GSP results. The parameter settings and different indices are investigated that the sentence-based index produces the best results in terms of the document-level, the word-based index for the best results in terms of the passage-level and the paragraph-based index for the best results in terms of the passage2-level. Furthermore, the best term association results always come from the best baseline. The tuning number k in the proposed recursive re-ranking algorithm is discussed and locally optimized to be 10. First, modelling term association for improving biomedical information retrieval using factor analysis, is one of the major contributions in our work. Second, the experiments confirm that term association considering co-occurrence and dependency among the keywords can produce better results than the baselines treating the keywords independently. Third, the baselines are re-ranked according to the importance and reliance of latent factors behind term associations. These latent

  6. Locally Rotationally Symmetric Bianchi Type-I Model with Time Varying Λ Term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiwari, R. K.; Jha, Navin Kumar

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the locally rotationally symmetric (LRS) Bianchi type-I cosmological model for stiff matter and a vacuum solution with a cosmological term proportional to R −m (R is the scale factor and m is a positive constant). The cosmological term decreases with time. We obtain that for both the cases the present universe is accelerating with a large fraction of cosmological density in the form of a cosmological term

  7. A new mathematical programming model for long-term production scheduling considering geological uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Gholamnejad, J.; Moosavi, E.

    2012-01-01

    Determination of the optimum production schedules over the life of a mine is a critical mechanism in open pit mine planning procedures. Long-term production scheduling is used to maximize the net present value of the project under technical, financial, and environmental constraints. Mathematical programming models are well suited for optimizing long-term production schedules of open pit mines. There are two approaches to solving long-term production problems: deterministic- and uncertainty- b...

  8. Economic evaluation of short-term wind power forecast in ERCOT. Preliminary results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Brinkman, Greg; Ela, Erik; Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Banunarayanan, Venkat; Nasir, Saleh [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Freedman, Jeff [AWS Truepower, Albany, NY (United States)

    2012-07-01

    A number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the monetary value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operation decisions. Historically, these studies have shown that large cost savings could be gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter term (0- to 6-h ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to form the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators. In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined and the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed. (orig.)

  9. Presenting an Evaluation Model for the Cancer Registry Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghaddasi, Hamid; Asadi, Farkhondeh; Rabiei, Reza; Rahimi, Farough; Shahbodaghi, Reihaneh

    2017-12-01

    As cancer is increasingly growing, cancer registry is of great importance as the main core of cancer control programs, and many different software has been designed for this purpose. Therefore, establishing a comprehensive evaluation model is essential to evaluate and compare a wide range of such software. In this study, the criteria of the cancer registry software have been determined by studying the documents and two functional software of this field. The evaluation tool was a checklist and in order to validate the model, this checklist was presented to experts in the form of a questionnaire. To analyze the results of validation, an agreed coefficient of %75 was determined in order to apply changes. Finally, when the model was approved, the final version of the evaluation model for the cancer registry software was presented. The evaluation model of this study contains tool and method of evaluation. The evaluation tool is a checklist including the general and specific criteria of the cancer registry software along with their sub-criteria. The evaluation method of this study was chosen as a criteria-based evaluation method based on the findings. The model of this study encompasses various dimensions of cancer registry software and a proper method for evaluating it. The strong point of this evaluation model is the separation between general criteria and the specific ones, while trying to fulfill the comprehensiveness of the criteria. Since this model has been validated, it can be used as a standard to evaluate the cancer registry software.

  10. Development, description and validation of a Tritium Environmental Release Model (TERM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffers, Rebecca S; Parker, Geoffrey T

    2014-01-01

    Tritium is a radioisotope of hydrogen that exists naturally in the environment and may also be released through anthropogenic activities. It bonds readily with hydrogen and oxygen atoms to form tritiated water, which then cycles through the hydrosphere. This paper seeks to model the migration of tritiated species throughout the environment - including atmospheric, river and coastal systems - more comprehensively and more consistently across release scenarios than is currently in the literature. A review of the features and underlying conceptual models of some existing tritium release models was conducted, and an underlying aggregated conceptual process model defined, which is presented. The new model, dubbed 'Tritium Environmental Release Model' (TERM), was then tested against multiple validation sets from literature, including experimental data and reference tests for tritium models. TERM has been shown to be capable of providing reasonable results which are broadly comparable with atmospheric HTO release models from the literature, spanning both continuous and discrete release conditions. TERM also performed well when compared with atmospheric data. TERM is believed to be a useful tool for examining discrete and continuous atmospheric releases or combinations thereof. TERM also includes further capabilities (e.g. river and coastal release scenarios) that may be applicable to certain scenarios that atmospheric models alone may not handle well. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Modeling the Effects of Trait Diversity on Short-term Adaptive Capacity and Long-term Productivity of Phytoplankton Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. L.; Vallina, S. M.; Merico, A.

    2016-02-01

    We examine Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function (BEF) in a model phytoplankton community, using two recently developed mechanisms for sustaining diversity. The Trait Diffusion (TD) formulation represents the maintenance of diversity via endogenous mechanisms, such as inter-generational trait plasticity and rapid evolution. The 'Kill-the-Winner' (KTW) formulation for grazing sustains prey biodiversity via the exogenous mechanism of active prey switching. We implement both TD and KTW in a continuous trait-distribution model using simplified size-scalings to define a gleaner-opportunist trade-off for a phytoplankton community. By simulating semi-continuous culture experiments with periodic external dilutions, we test the dynamic response of the phytoplankton community to different scenarios of pulsed nutrient supply. We quantify the short-term Adaptive Capacity (AC) of the community by the specific growth rate averaged over the first 3 days of perturbations, and the Long-term Productivity (LP) by its average over the entire 120 day period of perturbations. When either the frequency or intensity of pulses is low, both AC and LP tend to decrease with diversity (and vice versa). Trait diversity has more impact on AC, particularly for pulses of high frequency or intensity, for which it tends to increase gradually at first, then steeply, and then to saturate with increasing diversity. For pulses of moderate intensity and frequency, increasing trait diversity from low to moderate levels leads to a trade-off between enhancing AC while slightly decreasing LP. Ultimately, we find that sustaining diversity increases the speed at which the phytoplankton community changes its composition in terms of size and hence nutrient acquisition traits, which may have implications for the transfer of productivity through the foodweb.

  12. Modeling a support system for the evaluator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lozano Lima, B.; Ilizastegui Perez, F; Barnet Izquierdo, B.

    1998-01-01

    This work gives evaluators a tool they can employ to give more soundness to their review of operational limits and conditions. The system will establish the most adequate method to carry out the evaluation, as well as to evaluate the basis for technical operational specifications. It also includes the attainment of alternative questions to be supplied to the operating entity to support it in decision-making activities

  13. An Integrated Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach for Evaluating Nuclear Fuel Cycle Systems for Long-term Sustainability on the Basis of an Equilibrium Model: Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation, and Multiattribute Utility Theory Combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process

    OpenAIRE

    Saerom Yoon; Sungyeol Choi; Wonil Ko

    2017-01-01

    The focus on the issues surrounding spent nuclear fuel and lifetime extension of old nuclear power plants continues to grow nowadays. A transparent decision-making process to identify the best suitable nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) is considered to be the key task in the current situation. Through this study, an attempt is made to develop an equilibrium model for the NFC to calculate the material flows based on 1 TWh of electricity production, and to perform integrated multicriteria decision-makin...

  14. Tritium: a model for low level long-term ionizing radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carsten, A.L.

    1984-01-01

    The somatic, cytogenetic and genetic effects of single and chronic tritiated water (HTO) ingestion in mice was investigated. This study serves not only as an evaluation of tritium toxicity (TRITOX) but due to its design involving long-term low concentration ingestion of HTO may serve as a model for low level long-term ionizing radiation exposure in general. Long-term studies involved animals maintained on HTO at concentrations of 0.3 μCi/ml, 1.0 μCi/ml, 3.0 μCi/ml or depth dose equivalent chronic external exposures to 137 Cs gamma rays. Maintenance on 3.0 μCi/ml resulted in no effect on growth, life-time shortening or bone marrow cellularity, but did result in a reduction of bone marrow stem cells, an increase in DLM's in second generation animals maintained on this regimen and cytogenetic effects as indicated by increased sister chromatid exchanges (SCE's) in bone marrow cells, increased chromosome aberrations in the regenerating liver and an increase in micronuclei in red blood cells. Biochemical and microdosimetry studies showed that animals placed on the HTO regimen reached tritium equilibrium in the body water in approximately 17 to 21 days with a more gradual increase in bound tritium. When animals maintained for 180 days on 3.0 μCi/ml HTO were placed on a tap water regimen, the tritium level in tissue dropped from the equilibrium value of 2.02 μCi/ml before withdrawal to 0.001 μCi/ml at 28 days. 18 references

  15. Methodologies for evaluating long-term stabilization designs of uranium mill tailings impoundments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, J.D.; Abt, S.R.; Volpe, R.L.; Van Zye, D.; Hinkle, N.E.; Staub, W.P.

    1986-06-01

    Uranium mill tailings impoundments require long-term (200 to 1000 years) stabilization. This report reviews currently available methodologies for evaluating factors that can have a significant influence on tailings stabilization and develops methodologies in technical areas where none presently exist. Mill operators can use these methodologies to assist with (1) the selection of sites for mill tailings impoundments, (2) the design of stable impoundments, and (3) the development of reclamation plans for existing impoundments. These methodologies would also be useful for regulatory agency evaluations of proposals in permit or license applications. Methodologies were reviewed or developed in the following technical areas: (1) prediction of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and an accompanying Probable Maximum Flood (PMF); (2) prediction of the stability of local and regional fluvial systems; (3) design of impoundment surfaces resistant to gully erosion; (4) evaluation of the potential for surface sheet erosion; (5) design of riprap for protecting embankments from channel flood flow and overland flow; (6) selection of riprap with appropriate durability for its intended use; and (7) evaluation of oversizing required for marginal quality riprap

  16. Evaluation of the long-term performance of six alternative disposal methods for LLRW

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kossik, R.; Sharp, G. [Golder Associates, Inc., Redmond, WA (United States); Chau, T. [Rogers & Associates Engineering Corp., Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    1995-12-31

    The State of New York has carried out a comparison of six alternative disposal methods for low-level radioactive waste (LLRW). An important part of these evaluations involved quantitatively analyzing the long-term (10,000 yr) performance of the methods with respect to dose to humans, radionuclide concentrations in the environment, and cumulative release from the facility. Four near-surface methods (covered above-grade vault, uncovered above-grade vault, below-grade vault, augered holes) and two mine methods (vertical shaft mine and drift mine) were evaluated. Each method was analyzed for several generic site conditions applicable for the state. The evaluations were carried out using RIP (Repository Integration Program), an integrated, total system performance assessment computer code which has been applied to radioactive waste disposal facilities both in the U.S. (Yucca Mountain, WIPP) and worldwide. The evaluations indicate that mines in intact low-permeability rock and near-surface facilities with engineered covers generally have a high potential to perform well (within regulatory limits). Uncovered above-grade vaults and mines in highly fractured crystalline rock, however, have a high potential to perform poorly, exceeding regulatory limits.

  17. Comfrey (Symphytum officinale. L. and Experimental Hepatic Carcinogenesis: A Short-Term Carcinogenesis Model Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Fernanda Pereira Lavieri Gomes

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comfrey or Symphytum officinale (L. (Boraginaceae is a very popular plant used for therapeutic purposes. Since the 1980s, its effects have been studied in long-term carcinogenesis studies, in which Comfrey extract is administered at high doses during several months and the neoplastic hepatic lesions are evaluated. However, the literature on this topic is very poor considering the studies performed under short-term carcinogenesis protocols, such as the ‘resistant hepatocyte model’ (RHM. In these studies, it is possible to observe easily the phenomena related to the early phases of tumor development, since pre-neoplastic lesions (PNLs rise in about 1–2 months of chemical induction. Herein, the effects of chronic oral treatment of rats with 10% Comfrey ethanolic extract were evaluated in a RHM. Wistar rats were sequentially treated with N-nitrosodiethylamine (ip and 2-acetilaminofluorene (po, and submitted to hepatectomy to induce carcinogenesis promotion. Macroscopic/microscopic quantitative analysis of PNL was performed. Non-parametric statistical tests (Mann–Whitney and χ2 were used, and the level of significance was set at P ≤ 0.05. Comfrey treatment reduced the number of pre-neoplastic macroscopic lesions up to 1 mm (P ≤ 0.05, the percentage of oval cells (P = 0.0001 and mitotic figures (P = 0.007, as well as the number of Proliferating Cell Nuclear Antigen (PCNA positive cells (P = 0.0001 and acidophilic pre-neoplastic nodules (P = 0.05. On the other hand, the percentage of cells presenting megalocytosis (P = 0.0001 and vacuolar degeneration (P = 0.0001 was increased. Scores of fibrosis, glycogen stores and the number of nucleolus organizing regions were not altered. The study indicated that oral treatment of rats with 10% Comfrey alcoholic extract reduced cell proliferation in this model.

  18. A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Mário; Cancho, Vicente G; Rodrigues, Josemar

    2010-02-01

    In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. In this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Evaluation of applicability of alternative source terms to operating nuclear power plants in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)