The market value and impact of offshore wind on the electricity spot market: Evidence from Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ederer, Nikolaus

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Market value of offshore wind based on feed-in and weather data is assessed. • Merit order effect caused by wind energy is simulated for 2006–2014. • Results indicate same impact of on- and offshore wind on market price and value. • Steadier wind resource offshore imposes less variability on market price. • Characteristic of variable wind feed-in cannot be blamed for price deterioration. - Abstract: Although the expansion of offshore wind has recently increased in Germany, as in other countries, it is still forced to defend its role in long-term energy policy plans, particularly against its onshore counterpart, to secure future expansion targets and financial support. The objective of this article is to investigate the economic effects of offshore wind on the electricity spot market and thus open up another perspective that has not been part of the debate about offshore vs. onshore wind thus far. A comprehensive assessment based on a large amount of market, feed-in and weather data in Germany revealed that the market value of offshore wind is generally higher than that of onshore wind. Simulating the merit order effect on the German day-ahead electricity market for the short term and long term in the years 2006–2014 aimed to identify the reason for this observation and show whether it is also an indication of a lower impact on the electricity spot market due to a steadier wind resource prevailing offshore. Although the results suggest no difference regarding the impact on market price and value, they indeed reveal that offshore wind imposes less variability on the spot market price than onshore wind. In addition, the long-term simulation proved that the ongoing price deterioration cannot be blamed on the characteristic of variable wind production

Reliability of copper based alloys for electric resistance spot welding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jovanovicj, M.; Mihajlovicj, A.; Sherbedzhija, B.

1977-01-01

Durability of copper based alloys (B-5 and B-6) for electric resistance spot-welding was examined. The total amount of Be, Ni and Zr was up to 2 and 1 wt.% respectively. Good durability and satisfactory quality of welded spots were obtained in previous laboratory experiments carried out on the fixed spot-welding machine of an industrial type (only B-5 alloy was examined). Electrodes made of both B-5 and B-6 alloy were tested on spot-welding grips and fixed spot-welding machines in Tvornica automobila Sarajevo (TAS). The obtained results suggest that the durability of electrodes made of B-5 and B-6 alloys is more than twice better than of that used in TAS

On the correlation of electricity spot market prices and photovoltaic electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, Tim; Luther, Joachim

2004-01-01

Discussions about market introduction of grid connected photovoltaics (PV) and its costs usually concentrate only on the gross energy produced without taking the time dependency of electricity prices and, thus, the time dependency of the value of PV electricity into account. To make a first approximation of what the effect of the time variance of electricity cost on the value of PV electricity is, the correlation with spot market prices is analysed in this paper. PV is not dispatchable by nature, but is relatively well predictable in the range of one day, if the average of spatially dispersed systems is considered. Thus, this correlation gives a good indication for the additional value of PV electricity

On the correlation of electricity spot market prices and photovoltaic electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, T.; Luther, J.

2004-01-01

Discussions about market introduction of grid connected photovoltaics (PV) and its costs usually concentrate only on the gross energy produced without taking the time dependency of electricity prices and, thus, the time dependency of the value of PV electricity into account. To make a first approximation of what the effect of the time variance of electricity cost on the value of PV electricity is, the correlation with spot market prices is analysed in this paper. PV is not dispatchable by nature, but is relatively well predictable in the range of one day, if the average of spatially dispersed systems is considered. Thus, this correlation gives a good indication for the additional value of PV electricity. (Author)

Measuring competitiveness of the EPEX spot market for electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graf, Christoph; Wozabal, David

2013-01-01

The issue of market concentration in electricity markets and resulting possible anti-competitive behavior of producers is a much discussed topic in many countries. We investigate the day-ahead market for electricity at the EPEX, the largest central European market for electricity. To analyze whether generating companies use their market power to influence prices, we use a conjectural variations approach as well as a direct approach to construct marginal costs of electricity production. Given the available data, we cannot reject the hypothesis that there was no systematic abuse of market power by the suppliers of electricity on the EPEX day-ahead spot market for the years 2007–2010. These results are essentially robust when restricting the sample to high load hours, which are generally considered to be the most prone to market manipulation. -- Highlights: •We investigate the efficiency of the German spot market for electricity. •We employ a conjectural variations approach and a fundamental market model. •Peak load hours and base load hours are analyzed separately. •We find that the market was competitive from 2007 to 2010 for both base and peak hours. •Policies to promote market transparency in Germany can be regarded as successful

Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Haesun; Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

2006-01-01

Combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis, relationships among 11 U.S. spot market electricity prices are examined. Results suggest that the relationships among the markets vary by time frame. In contemporaneous time, the western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time frames these separations disappear, even though electricity transmission between the regions is limited. It appears the relationships among markets are not only a function of physical assets (such as transmissions lines among markets), but by similar and dissimilar institutional arrangements among the markets. (Author)

A new index for electricity spot markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Falbo, Paolo; Fattore, Marco; Stefani, Silvana

2010-01-01

Different indexes are used in electricity markets worldwide to represent the daily behavior of spot prices. However, the peculiarities of these markets require a careful choice of the index, based on mathematical formulation and its statistical properties. Choosing a bad index may influence the financial policies of market players, since derivative pricing and hedging performance can be deeply affected. In this paper with an initial theoretical analysis, we intend to show that the most widely used indexes (simple arithmetic average and weighted average with current volumes) are poor representatives of the spot market. We will then perform an analysis of the hedging strategy on a derivative instrument (an Asian option) written on a reference index. The resulting simulations, applied to OMEL (Spain) and EEX (Germany), are sufficiently clear cut to suggest that the decision to adopt an index to represent properly a market must be taken very carefully. Finally we will propose a new index (FAST index) and, after comparing it with the previous indexes, will show that both theoretically and practically this index can be taken as a good electricity market synthetic indicator.

The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices. An exploratory analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, Julien

2010-01-01

This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content. (author)

The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices. An exploratory analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chevallier, Julien [Universite Paris Dauphine, Place du Marechal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 (France)

2010-08-15

This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content. (author)

The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices: An exploratory analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chevallier, Julien, E-mail: julien.chevallier@dauphine.f [Universite Paris Dauphine, Place du Marechal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 (France)

2010-08-15

This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content.

Evaluating the market splitting determinants: evidence from the Iberian spot electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho; Silva, Patrícia Pereira da; Cerqueira, Pedro A.

2015-01-01

This paper aims to assess the main determinants on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. Iberia stands as an ideal case-study, where the high level deployment of wind power is observed, together with the implementation of the market splitting arrangement between the Portuguese and the Spanish spot electricity markets. Logit and non-parametric models are used to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices as a function of the explanatory variables representing the main technologies in the generation mix: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power, together with the available transfer capacity and electricity demand. Logit models give preliminary indications about market splitting behaviour, and then, notwithstanding the demanding computational challenge, a non-parametric model is applied in order to overcome the limitations of the former models. Results show an increase of market splitting probability with higher wind power generation or, more generally, with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity such as nuclear power generation. The European interconnection capacity target of 10% of the peak demand of the smallest interconnected market might be insufficient to maintain electricity market integration. Therefore, pro-active coordination policies, governing both interconnections and renewables deployment, should be further developed. -- Highlights: •Assess determinants on market splitting behaviour of Iberian electricity markets. •Logit and non-parametric models to express market splitting probability response. •Explanatory variables: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power; ATC and demand. •Results: increase of market splitting probability with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity. •Coordination policies governing both interconnections and renewables deployment

Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Larrieu, Jeremy

In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

Influence of TCSC on congestion and spot price in electricity market with bilateral contract

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acharya, Naresh; Mithulananthan, Nadarajah

2007-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the effect of TCSC on congestion and spot price in deregulated electricity markets. The paper could also be considered as a comprehensive tutorial on the influence of TCSC in electricity market. A voluntary pool market, where the market participants can trade electricity either via a pool or through bilateral contracts is considered. The electricity market is modeled in an optimal power flow framework with the objective of maximizing the social welfare. In such formulation, the Lagrange operators associated with the equality constraints associated with real power balance give the spot prices of energy at each bus of the system. Studies are carried out with and without TCSC at peak and low loading conditions to capture the influence and to see the effectiveness of TCSC at different loading conditions. The paper further explores the effect of TCSC compensation level on the spot prices and the congestion under varying pool and bilateral loading conditions. A 5-bus test system is used for numerical studies and to showcase the influence of TCSC in an electricity market environment. (author)

Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

2013-01-01

A two-step methodology for forecasting of electricity spot prices is introduced, with focus on the impact of predicted system load and wind power generation. The nonlinear and nonstationary influence of these explanatory variables is accommodated in a first step based on a nonparametric and time...

Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Norouzzadeh, Payam; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, Bahareh

2007-01-01

We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to numerically investigate correlation, persistence, multifractal properties and scaling behavior of the hourly spot prices for the Spain electricity exchange-Compania O Peradora del Mercado de Electricidad (OMEL). Through multifractal

Analyzing power pools and understanding the spot market based approach to electricity trading

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goulding, D. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

1997-12-31

Highlights of the evolution of the electricity industry from franchised monopoly to commoditized markets were presented. Trends in commoditized markets include increased competition, a decline in profit margins and increases in price volatility. Examples of highly regulated industries that have commoditized include long distance telephone, airline and the trucking industries. Models of possible market structures for electricity were reviewed, among them: (1) mandatory one-sided spot market, (2) mandatory spot market, less central control, (3) optional two-sided spot market, and (4) physical bilateral based market. Management of the marketplace regardless of the model used, must assure system security and system reliability and meet real-time demand on the system. Possible roles for the Independent System Operator were discussed. The principal role was predicted to be the operation of an electronic exchange for forward contracts, operation of the spot market, and acting as a clearinghouse for buyers and sellers of forward contracts. 1 tab., 4 figs.

Value assessment of hydrogen-based electrical energy storage in view of electricity spot market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

You, Shi; Hu, Junjie; Zong, Yi

2016-01-01

electricity spot market that has high price volatility due to its high share of wind power. An economic dispatch model is developed as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem to support the estimation of variable cost of such a system taking into account a good granularity of the technical details. Based...

Spikes and memory in (Nord Pool) electricity price spot prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Proietti, Tomasso; Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar

Electricity spot prices are subject to transitory sharp movements commonly referred to as spikes. The paper aims at assessing their effects on model based inferences and predictions, with reference to the Nord Pool power exchange. We identify a spike as a price value which deviates substantially...

The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.K.; Horowitz, I.; Moore, J.; Pacheco, A.

2011-01-01

The literature on renewable energy suggests that an increase in intermittent wind generation would reduce the spot electricity market price by displacing high fuel-cost marginal generation. Taking advantage of a large file of Texas-based 15-min data, we show that while rising wind generation does indeed tend to reduce the level of spot prices, it is also likely to enlarge the spot-price variance. The key policy implication is that increasing use of price risk management should accompany expanded deployment of wind generation. - Highlights: → Rising wind generation in ERCOT tends to reduce electricity spot prices. → Rising wind generation in ERCOT is also likely to enlarge the spot-price variance. → Increased price risk management should accompany expanded wind power deployment.

Optimal operation strategies of compressed air energy storage (CAES) on electricity spot markets with fluctuating prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Henrik; Salgi, Georges; Elmegaard, Brian

2009-01-01

on electricity spot markets by storing energy when electricity prices are low and producing electricity when prices are high. In order to make a profit on such markets, CAES plant operators have to identify proper strategies to decide when to sell and when to buy electricity. This paper describes three...... plants will not be able to achieve such optimal operation, since the fluctuations of spot market prices in the coming hours and days are not known. Consequently, two simple practical strategies have been identified and compared to the results of the optimal strategy. This comparison shows that...... independent computer-based methodologies which may be used for identifying the optimal operation strategy for a given CAES plant, on a given spot market and in a given year. The optimal strategy is identified as the one which provides the best business-economic net earnings for the plant. In practice, CAES...

Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

2007-01-01

Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

Bilateral contracts and the spot market for electricity: some observations on the British and the NordPool experiences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herguera, Inigo

2000-01-01

The performance of the futures and the spot market for electricity in England and Wales (EW) and in the Nordic countries have significant differences in terms of volumes traded and evolution of prices. Even though the institutional arrangements show significant differences and the data collected has important limitations we observe in EW for 1990-199 that as the coverage via bilateral contracts diminished, spot prices tended to increase, there was higher price volatility and an increasing number of plants were declared unavailable. In the NordPool, by contrast, market structure is more distributed, the bilateral contract price has tended to smooth the volatility in the spot price and a very diverse pattern behavior of prices has been observed. We interpret these observations as additional support in favor of the theoretical result by and Vila (Journal of Economic Theory 59 (1993) 1), but hint at the possibility of strategies by the firms that can diminish the welfare enhancing properties of this new bilateral market. (Author)

Analysis of M-stationary points to an EPEC modeling oligopolistic competition in an electricity spot market

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Henrion, R.; Outrata, Jiří; Surowiec, T.

2012-01-01

Roč. 18, č. 2 (2012), s. 295-317 ISSN 1292-8119 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/09/1957 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints * EPEC * M-stationary solutions * electricity spot market * calmness Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.282, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/outrata-analysis of m-stationary points to an epec modeling oligopolistic competition in an electricity spot market.pdf

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

Are daily and weekly load and spot price dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market governed by episodic nonlinearity?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wild, Phillip; Hinich, Melvin J.; Foster, John

2010-01-01

In this article, we use half hourly spot electricity prices and load data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia for the period from December 1998 to June 2009 to test for episodic nonlinearity in the dynamics governing daily and weekly cycles in load and spot price time series data. We apply the portmanteau correlation, bicorrelation and tricorrelation tests introduced in Hinich (1996) to the time series of half hourly spot prices and load demand from 7/12/1998 to 30/06/2009 using a FORTRAN 95 program. We find the presence of significant third and fourth-order (nonlinear) serial dependence in the weekly load and spot price data in particular, but to a much more marginal extent, in the daily data. (author)

The charging security study of electric vehicle charging spot based on automatic testing platform

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yulan; Yang, Zhangli; Zhu, Bin; Ran, Shengyi

2018-03-01

With the increasing of charging spots, the testing of charging security and interoperability becomes more and more urgent and important. In this paper, an interface simulator for ac charging test is designed, the automatic testing platform for electric vehicle charging spots is set up and used to test and analyze the abnormal state during the charging process. On the platform, the charging security and interoperability of ac charging spots and IC-CPD can be checked efficiently, the test report can be generated automatically with No artificial reading error. From the test results, the main reason why the charging spot is not qualified is that the power supply cannot be cut off in the prescribed time when the charging anomaly occurs.

An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janczura, Joanna [Hugo Steinhaus Center, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland); Weron, Rafal [Institute of Organization and Management, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

2010-09-15

One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janczura, Joanna; Weron, Rafal

2010-01-01

One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diongue, Abdou Ka; Guegan, Dominique; Vignal, Bertrand

2009-01-01

In this article, we investigate conditional mean and conditional variance forecasts using a dynamic model following a k-factor GIGARCH process. Particularly, we provide the analytical expression of the conditional variance of the prediction error. We apply this method to the German electricity price market for the period August 15, 2000-December 31, 2002 and we test spot prices forecasts until one-month ahead forecast. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA-GARCH benchmark model using the year 2003 as the out-of-sample. The proposed model outperforms clearly the benchmark model. We conclude that the k-factor GIGARCH process is a suitable tool to forecast spot prices, using the classical RMSE criteria. (author)

Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worthington, A.; Kay-Spratley, A.; Higgs, H.

2005-01-01

This paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market: namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, the Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme and Victoria. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to identify the source and magnitude of price and price volatility spillovers. The results indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in only a small number of markets and no mean spillovers between any of the markets. This appears to be directly related to the physical transfer limitations of the present system of regional interconnection. Nevertheless, the large number of significant own-volatility and cross-volatility spillovers in all five markets indicates the presence of strong autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects. This indicates that shocks in some markets will affect price volatility in others. Finally, and contrary to evidence from studies in North American electricity markets, the results also indicate that Australian electricity spot prices are stationary. (author)

Legal market abuse regulations of WpHG (law on stock trading) and the REMIT-VO in the electricity spot trading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Retsch, Alexander T.

2014-01-01

The thesis on legal market abuse regulations of WpHG (law on stock trading) and the REMIT-VO in the electricity spot trading include the discussion of the following issues: market abuse, its forms of appearance (market manipulation, insider trade, insider information), electricity spot trading, relevant legislative frame, market abuse regulations (WpHG), interdiction of market manipulation and related regulations.

New types of contracts. Part 1. Too high prices on the spot market for electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Gelder, J.W.

1999-01-01

In two articles, the state of the art of new types of contract such as swaps, futures and spot contracts is covered. What is the situation of the Dutch deregulating market in this respect? In this first article the focus is on the spot market for electricity, while the second article in the next month's issue will deal with the gas market. Four foreign brokers are active in the Dutch electricity market in addition to Amsterdam Power Exchange (APX). The four major power producing companies, being subject to a Protocol, are not allowed to trade their power directly on the APX. That's why most of the power traded through the APX comes from outside the Netherlands. Thus, the foreign brokers complement the service package of the APX

High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cutler, Nicholas J.; Boerema, Nicholas D.; MacGill, Iain F.; Outhred, Hugh R.

2011-01-01

This paper explores wind power integration issues for the South Australian (SA) region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) by assessing the interaction of regional wind generation, electricity demand and spot prices over 2 recent years of market operation. SA's wind energy penetration has recently surpassed 20% and it has only a limited interconnection with other regions of the NEM. As such, it represents an interesting example of high wind penetration in a gross wholesale pool market electricity industry. Our findings suggest that while electricity demand continues to have the greatest influence on spot prices in SA, wind generation levels have become a significant secondary influence, and there is an inverse relationship between wind generation and price. No clear relationship between wind generation and demand has been identified although some periods of extremely high demand may coincide with lower wind generation. Periods of high wind output are associated with generally lower market prices, and also appear to contribute to extreme negative price events. The results highlight the importance of electricity market and renewable policy design in facilitating economically efficient high wind penetrations. - Highlights: → In South Australia (SA) wind generation is having an influence on market prices. → Little or no correlation is found between wind generation and demand. → Wind farms in SA are receiving a lower average price than in other States. → The results highlight the importance of appropriate electricity market design.

Ionospheric hot spot at high latitudes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schunk, R.W.; Sojka, J.J.

1982-01-01

A hot spot (or spots) can occur in the high-latitude ionosphere depending on the plasma convection pattern. The hot spot corresponds to a small magnetic local time-magnetic latitude region of elevated ion temperatures located near the dusk and/or dawn meridians. For asymmetric convection electric field patterns, with enhanced flow in either the dusk or dawn sector of the polar cap, a single hot spot should occur in association with the strong convection cell. However, on geomagnetically disturbed days, two strong convection cells can occur, and hence, two hot spots should exist. The hot spot should be detectable when the electric field in the strong convection cell exceeds about 40 mV m -1 . For electric fields of the order of 100 mV m -1 in the convection cell, the ion temperature in the hot spot is greatest at low altitudes, reaching 4000 0 K at 160 km, and decreases with altitude in the F-region. An ionospheric hot spot (or spots) can be expected at all seasons and for a wide range of solar cycle conditions

Structuring spot, short and long term gas contracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gretener, N.M.

1996-01-01

A review of the core clauses of the modern natural gas purchase and sales contracts, was presented. There exists a wide variety of terms which can be used by a seller and a buyer to customize such a contract to suit particular circumstances. On the basis of length of term, gas contracts may classified as spot contracts having a term of 30 days or less, short term contracts having a term of 30 days to one to two years, and long term contracts having terms greater than two years. The three key elements which are applicable to all gas sales contracts are the contract price, the seller's obligation to deliver, and the buyer's obligation to accept. Other provisions that may be included in any gas sales contract in addition to the basic three were reviewed, including market pricing, load factor incentive pricing, seasonal pricing, pipeline demand charges, market shares, and the seller's right to decontract

Development of educational Web-based simulator for the electricity spot market in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, J.W.; Yang, K.M.; Jeong, Y.W.; Park, J.B.; Shin, J.R.

2006-01-01

Market simulation approaches are used frequently by electric utilities to resolve the spot market-related problems that are often encountered in competitive electricity markets. A well constructed market simulator offers the possibility to foresee the effect of new market structures or rules before they are actually implemented. This paper presented a newly developed educational market simulator that simulates the power exchange methods and market rules of the Two Way Bidding Pool (TWBP) in Korea. It allows users to set information related with market and market entities. In particular, it is an educational tool that enables interaction between lecturers and students via Web-based programs. Students can learn the effectiveness of an electricity spot market by bidding and examining the market with lecturers. Measures have been taken to address the problem of multi-users trying to manage the complex data sets. The developed application program is composed of 3 tiers where the middle tier is logically divided into 2 kinds of application programs. The divided application programs are interconnected by using the Web-service based on Extended Markup Technology and Hyper Text Transfer Protocol which make the distributed computing technology possible. Unlike most existing educational simulators, this one has the advantage of allowing students to make bids just like in a real market, thus showing them how the real electricity market runs and how market participants make their revenues. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs

Development of educational Web-based simulator for the electricity spot market in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, J.W.; Yang, K.M.; Jeong, Y.W.; Park, J.B.; Shin, J.R. [Konkuk Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

2006-07-01

Market simulation approaches are used frequently by electric utilities to resolve the spot market-related problems that are often encountered in competitive electricity markets. A well constructed market simulator offers the possibility to foresee the effect of new market structures or rules before they are actually implemented. This paper presented a newly developed educational market simulator that simulates the power exchange methods and market rules of the Two Way Bidding Pool (TWBP) in Korea. It allows users to set information related with market and market entities. In particular, it is an educational tool that enables interaction between lecturers and students via Web-based programs. Students can learn the effectiveness of an electricity spot market by bidding and examining the market with lecturers. Measures have been taken to address the problem of multi-users trying to manage the complex data sets. The developed application program is composed of 3 tiers where the middle tier is logically divided into 2 kinds of application programs. The divided application programs are interconnected by using the Web-service based on Extended Markup Technology and Hyper Text Transfer Protocol which make the distributed computing technology possible. Unlike most existing educational simulators, this one has the advantage of allowing students to make bids just like in a real market, thus showing them how the real electricity market runs and how market participants make their revenues. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs.

A bid solicitation and selection method for developing a competitive spot priced electric market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ancona, J.J.

1997-01-01

The electric utility industry is in the beginning throes of a transformation from a cost-based regulated structure to a more market based less regulated system. Traditional unit commitment and economic dispatch methodologies can continue to provide reliable least-cost solutions, providing they are modified to accommodate a larger sphere of market participants. This paper offers a method for an entity such as an Independent System Operator (ISO) to solicit and evaluate bids for developing a spot priced electric market by replicating existing utility practices that are effective and efficient, while creating an open and equitable competitive marketplace for electricity

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azevedo, F.; Vale, Z.A.; Khodr, H.M.; Oliveira, P.B. Moura

2010-01-01

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn. (author)

Rough electricity: a new fractal multi-factor model of electricity spot prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bennedsen, Mikkel

We introduce a new mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, fractality, and our approach...... explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of Benth et al. (2007) and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein Uhlenbeck-based model and a fractal model. Further, through...... the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating - and making inference on - the degree of fractality. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial to accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model...

Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

2008-01-01

It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

How do electricity consumption excluding power intensive manufacturing, react on changes in the spot price?; Hvordan reagerer stroemforbruket i alminnelig forsyning paa endringer i spotpris?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holstad, Magne; Pettersen, Finn Erik L.

2011-05-15

The purpose of this report is to analyse how electricity consumption excluding power intensive manufacturing will react on changes in the spot price on the basis of monthly data of the period 1996-2010 and an econometric error correction model. General consumption accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total net consumption of electricity in Norway. Households, services and other manufacturing than the power intensive account for the majority of this consumption. In order to estimate the net effect of the spot price on general electricity consumption, it is important to control for other variables that also affect the consumption. Since much of the electricity in general consumption is used for heating, one obvious and important explanatory variable is temperature. In addition to electricity price and temperature we assume that general consumption also depends on economic activity, price on light heating oil, the share of working days in the current month and a summer holiday dummy. In the consumption equation price can not be considered as an exogenous explanatory variable, since consumption affects price and vice versa. Hence, we have added a price equation that can be considered as an inverted supply equation. Both the consumption and the supply equation are specified dynamically in order to allow for slow adjustment of supply and consumption. The two equations of the model are estimated by two stage least square (2SLS). Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) is the most efficient estimation method in large samples, but a crucial assumption for consistent FIML-estimation is that the disturbance terms are normally distributed. A Jarque-Bera test of the error terms does not support this assumption in our data. R2 in the consumption equation is high. 96 per cent of the variation in the relative change in consumption is explained. In the price equation R2 is considerably lower. We find that if the spot price for Norway increases by 1 percent from one month

Electricity storages - optimised operation based on spot market prices; Stromspeicher. Optimierte Fahrweise auf Basis der Spotmarktpreise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernhard, Dominik; Roon, Serafin von [FfE Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft e.V., Muenchen (Germany)

2010-06-15

With its integrated energy and climate package the last federal government set itself ambitious goals for the improvement of energy efficiency and growth of renewable energy production. These goals were confirmed by the new government in its coalition agreement. However, they can only be realised if the supply of electricity from fluctuating renewable sources can be made to coincide with electricity demand. Electricity storages are therefore an indispensable component of the future energy supply system. This article studies the optimised operation of an electricity storage based on spot market prices and the influence of wind power production up to the year 2020.

Interactions between the German Electricity Spot Market and the Reserve Energy Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graeber, Bernhardt

2005-01-01

Eight years after market opening, Germany has well established spot and future markets for electricity. Besides OTC and Internet broker platforms the main market place is the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig (EEX) with its spot and future market. Less known is the reserve energy market in Germany. The four German transmission system operators (TSOs) EnBW, EON, RWE and Vattenfall purchase network services on the reserve energy market. Products with specific technical requirements are primary, secondary and tertiary reserve. (Details about the technical requirements and typical means for providing the required services will be presented.) Each TSO organises a separate auction for these products - for primary and secondary reserve half-yearly, for tertiary reserve daily. Due to the technical requirements the liquidity on these markets is limited, but especially on the tertiary reserve market it is recently growing significantly due to new participants marketing several smaller municipal and industrial reserve power plants as combined bids which meet the 30 MW min. capacity requirement. Every power plant or interruptible load could not only be offered as capacity on the reserve market but could also be dispatched for the spot market. Therefore the developments of prices on these markets are not independent and opportunity costs against the spot market can be estimated for different type of plants bidding in the reserve market. Another interaction between reserve and spot market is caused by the balancing price system in Germany. Prices for balancing energy meeting deviations between load, trading balance and production of a market participant are based on quarter-hourly reserve energy costs encountered by the TSO. As unbiased load and production forecasts are not strictly enforced by the TSOs so far, part of the planned demand could be met with balancing energy if EEX spot market prices rise above expected balancing energy prices. This interrelationship has a

Pricing of reserves. Valuing system reserve capacity against spot prices in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Just, Sebastian; Weber, Christoph

2008-01-01

This paper models the interdependencies between markets for secondary reserve capacity and spot electricity to derive the pricing of reserves under equilibrium conditions. Starting with the indifference condition between offering in both markets, the reservation price is derived from the opportunity cost consideration and the unit commitment conditions in a fundamental interrelated market framework. The reserve market examined compares widely to the German market for secondary reserves, but the general approach may also be used to investigate other reserve markets. The approach explores and formalizes the influence of reserve capacity on the spot market supply function. A numerical solution procedure is provided to this non-trivial case of market interaction. The model is used to estimate the expected reservation price development over the last years in Germany. (author)

Electricity pricing: optimal operation and investment by industrial consumers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Outhred, H.R.; Kaye, R.J.; Sutanto, D.; Manimaran, R.; Bannister, C.H.; Lee, Y.B.

1988-08-01

Ongoing research in the areas of economically efficient electricity pricing and industrial consumer response is described. A new electricity pricing theory is described that incorporates future uncertainty and intertemporal linkages between decisions. It indicates that electricity prices should contain two terms - short-run marginal cost plus a term that reflects how each particular decision is likely to affect future global welfare. A practical implementation using spot prices and forward contracts plus financial instruments for risk sharing and decision coordination is explored, and a procedure for developing long-term pricing policy is considered. The operation of industrial plant has been investigated and models developed to optimize plant behaviour in response to spot prices and forward contracts for electricity. These models are described and results of simulation studies discussed. The economic efficiency and risk sharing advantages of this advanced tariff structure compared with a conventional time-of-use tariff are illustrated.

Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter

2010-01-01

Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2010-12-15

Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

Near-Term Electric Vehicle Program. Phase II: Mid-Term Summary Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1978-08-01

The Near Term Electric Vehicle (NTEV) Program is a constituent elements of the overall national Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Program that is being implemented by the Department of Energy in accordance with the requirements of the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research, Development, and Demonstration Act of 1976. Phase II of the NTEV Program is focused on the detailed design and development, of complete electric integrated test vehicles that incorporate current and near-term technology, and meet specified DOE objectives. The activities described in this Mid-Term Summary Report are being carried out by two contractor teams. The prime contractors for these contractor teams are the General Electric Company and the Garrett Corporation. This report is divided into two discrete parts. Part 1 describes the progress of the General Electric team and Part 2 describes the progress of the Garrett team.

Jumping-droplet electronics hot-spot cooling

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Junho; Birbarah, Patrick; Foulkes, Thomas; Yin, Sabrina L.; Rentauskas, Michelle; Neely, Jason; Pilawa-Podgurski, Robert C. N.; Miljkovic, Nenad

2017-03-01

Demand for enhanced cooling technologies within various commercial and consumer applications has increased in recent decades due to electronic devices becoming more energy dense. This study demonstrates jumping-droplet based electric-field-enhanced (EFE) condensation as a potential method to achieve active hot spot cooling in electronic devices. To test the viability of EFE condensation, we developed an experimental setup to remove heat via droplet evaporation from single and multiple high power gallium nitride (GaN) transistors acting as local hot spots (4.6 mm × 2.6 mm). An externally powered circuit was developed to direct jumping droplets from a copper oxide (CuO) nanostructured superhydrophobic surface to the transistor hot spots by applying electric fields between the condensing surface and the transistor. Heat transfer measurements were performed in ambient air (22-25 °C air temperature, 20%-45% relative humidity) to determine the effect of gap spacing (2-4 mm), electric field (50-250 V/cm) and applied heat flux (demonstrated to 13 W/cm2). EFE condensation was shown to enhance the heat transfer from the local hot spot by ≈200% compared to cooling without jumping and by 20% compared to non-EFE jumping. Dynamic switching of the electric field for a two-GaN system reveals the potential for active cooling of mobile hot spots. The opportunity for further cooling enhancement by the removal of non-condensable gases promises hot spot heat dissipation rates approaching 120 W/cm2. This work provides a framework for the development of active jumping droplet based vapor chambers and heat pipes capable of spatial and temporal thermal dissipation control.

Jumping-droplet electronics hot-spot cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Junho; Birbarah, Patrick; Foulkes, Thomas; Yin, Sabrina L.; Rentauskas, Michelle

2017-01-01

Demand for enhanced cooling technologies within various commercial and consumer applications has increased in recent decades due to electronic devices becoming more energy dense. This study demonstrates jumping-droplet based electric-field-enhanced (EFE) condensation as a potential method to achieve active hot spot cooling in electronic devices. To test the viability of EFE condensation, we developed an experimental setup to remove heat via droplet evaporation from single and multiple high power gallium nitride (GaN) transistors acting as local hot spots (4.6 mm x 2.6 mm). An externally powered circuit was developed to direct jumping droplets from a copper oxide (CuO) nanostructured superhydrophobic surface to the transistor hot spots by applying electric fields between the condensing surface and the transistor. Heat transfer measurements were performed in ambient air (22-25°C air temperature, 20-45% relative humidity) to determine the effect of gap spacing (2-4 mm), electric field (50-250 V/cm), and heat flux (demonstrated to 13 W/cm"2). EFE condensation was shown to enhance the heat transfer from the local hot spot by ≈ 200% compared to cooling without jumping and by 20% compared to non-EFE jumping. Dynamic switching of the electric field for a two-GaN system reveals the potential for active cooling of mobile hot spots. The opportunity for further cooling enhancement by the removal of non-condensable gases promises hot spot heat dissipation rates approaching 120 W/cm"2. Finally, this work provides a framework for the development of active jumping droplet based vapor chambers and heat pipes capable of spatial and temporal thermal dissipation control.

Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso

2010-01-01

The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

Structuring spot, short and long term gas contracts; CD-ROM ed.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gretener, N.M.

1996-05-01

A review of the core clauses of the modern natural gas purchase and sales contracts, was presented. There exists a wide variety of terms which can be used by a seller and a buyer to customize such a contract to suit particular circumstances. On the basis of length of term, gas contracts may classified as spot contracts having a term of 30 days or less, short term contracts having a term of 30 days to one to two years, and long term contracts having terms greater than two years. The three key elements which are applicable to all gas sales contracts are the contract price, the seller`s obligation to deliver, and the buyer`s obligation to accept. Other provisions that may be included in any gas sales contract in addition to the basic three were reviewed, including market pricing, load factor incentive pricing, seasonal pricing, pipeline demand charges, market shares, and the seller`s right to decontract.

Spot market for uranium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colhoun, C.

1982-01-01

The spot market is always quoted for the price of uranium because little information is available about long-term contracts. A review of the development of spot market prices shows the same price curve swings that occur with all raw materials. Future long-term contracts will probably be lower to reflect spot market prices, which are currently in the real-value range of $30-$35. An upswing in the price of uranium could come in the next few months as utilities begin making purchases and trading from stockpiles. The US, unlike Europe and Japan, has already reached a supply and demand point where the spot market share is increasing. Forecasters cannot project the market price, they can only predict the presence of an oscillating spot or a secondary market. 5 figures

Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lilleberg, J.; Laitinen, E.K.

1998-01-01

Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers' right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lilleberg, J; Laitinen, E K [Vaasa Univ. (Finland)

1998-08-01

Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers` right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redl, Christian; Haas, Reinhard; Huber, Claus; Boehm, Bernhard

2009-01-01

Since the liberalisation of the European electricity sector, forward and futures contracts have gained significant interest of market participants due to risk management reasons. For pricing of these contracts an important fact concerns the non-storability of electricity. In this case, according to economic theory, forward prices are related to the expected spot prices which are built on fundamental market expectations. In the following article the crucial impact parameters of forward electricity prices and the relationship between forward and future spot prices will be assessed by an empirical analysis of electricity prices at the European Energy Exchange and the Nord Pool Power Exchange. In fact, price formation in the considered markets is influenced by historic spot market prices yielding a biased forecasting power of long-term contracts. Although market and risk assessment measures of market participants and supply and demand shocks can partly explain the futures-spot bias inefficiencies in the analysed forward markets cannot be ruled out. (author)

Automatic demand response referred to electricity spot price. Demo description

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grande, Ove S.; Livik, Klaus; Hals, Arne

2006-05-01

This report presents background, technical solution and results from a test project (Demo I) developed in the DRR Norway) project. Software and technology from two different vendors, APAS and Powel ASA, are used to demonstrate a scheme for Automatic Demand Response (ADR) referred to spot price level and a system for documentation of demand response and cost savings. Periods with shortage of energy supply and hardly any investments in new production capacity have turned focus towards the need for increased price elasticity on the demand side in the Nordic power market. The new technology for Automatic Meter Reading (AMR) and Remote Load Control (RLC) provides an opportunity to improve the direct market participation from the demand side by introducing automatic schemes that reduce the need for customer attention to hourly market prices. The low prioritized appliances, and not the total load, are in this report defined as the Demand Response Objects, based on the assumption that there is a limit for what the customers are willing to pay for different uses of electricity. Only disconnection of residential water heaters is included in the demo, due to practical limitations. The test was performed for a group of single family houses over a period of 2 months. All the houses were equipped with a radio controlled 'Ebox' unit attached to the water heater socket. The settlement and invoicing were based on hourly metered values (kWh/h), which means that the customer benefit is equivalent to the accumulated changes in the electricity cost per hour. The actual load reduction is documented by comparison between the real meter values for the period and a reference curve. The curves show significant response to the activated control in the morning hours. In the afternoon it is more difficult to register the response, probably due to 'disturbing' activities like cooking etc. Demo I shows that load reduction referred to spot price level can be done in a smooth way. The experiences

Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf

2012-01-01

This paper evaluates different financial price and time series models, such as mean reversion, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), integrated ARMA (ARIMA) and general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, usually applied for electricity price simulations. However, as these models are developed to describe the stochastic behaviour of electricity prices, they are extended by a separate data treatment for the deterministic components (trend, daily, weekly and annual cycles) of electricity spot prices. Furthermore price jumps are considered and implemented within a regime-switching model. Since 2008 market design allows for negative prices at the European Energy Exchange, which also occurred for several hours in the last years. Up to now, only a few financial and time series approaches exist, which are able to capture negative prices. This paper presents a new approach incorporating negative prices. The evaluation of the different approaches presented points out that the mean reversion and the ARMA models deliver the lowest mean root square error between simulated and historical electricity spot prices gained from the European Energy Exchange. These models posses also lower mean average errors than GARCH models. Hence, they are more suitable to simulate well-fitting price paths. Furthermore it is shown that the daily structure of historical price curves is better captured applying ARMA or ARIMA processes instead of mean-reversion or GARCH models. Another important outcome of the paper is that the regime-switching approach and the consideration of negative prices via the new proposed approach lead to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation. - Highlights: ► Considering negative prices improves the results of time-series and financial models for electricity prices. ► Regime-switching approach captures the jumps and base prices quite well. ► Removing and separate modelling of deterministic annual, weekly and daily

An empirical comparison of alternative schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nowotarski, Jakub; Raviv, Eran; Trück, Stefan; Weron, Rafał

2014-01-01

In this comprehensive empirical study we critically evaluate the use of forecast averaging in the context of electricity prices. We apply seven averaging and one selection scheme and perform a backtesting analysis on day-ahead electricity prices in three major European and US markets. Our findings support the additional benefit of combining forecasts of individual methods for deriving more accurate predictions, however, the performance is not uniform across the considered markets and periods. In particular, equally weighted pooling of forecasts emerges as a simple, yet powerful technique compared with other schemes that rely on estimated combination weights, but only when there is no individual predictor that consistently outperforms its competitors. Constrained least squares regression (CLS) offers a balance between robustness against such well performing individual methods and relatively accurate forecasts, on average better than those of the individual predictors. Finally, some popular forecast averaging schemes – like ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) – turn out to be unsuitable for predicting day-ahead electricity prices. - Highlights: • So far the most extensive study on combining forecasts for electricity spot prices • 12 stochastic models, 8 forecast combination schemes and 3 markets considered • Our findings support the additional benefit of combining forecasts for deriving more accurate predictions • Methods that allow for unconstrained weights, such as OLS averaging, should be avoided • We recommend a backtesting exercise to identify the preferred forecast averaging method for the data at hand

The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

2011-01-01

The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yuanjing

2015-01-01

This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

Science.gov (United States)

Harbord, David William Cameron

This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

Analysis of electricity price in Danish competitive electricity market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2012-01-01

electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. 10 year actual data from the Danish competitive electricity market are collected and analyzed. The relationship among the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price), the consumption and the wind power generation...... in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price and the regulation price generally decrease when the wind power penetration in the power system increases or the consumption of the power system decreases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price and the regulation price for different...... consumption periods and wind power penetration are analyzed. Simulation results show that the findings of this paper are useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal bidding strategy so that the imbalance cost of trading wind power on the electricity market could be reduced....

The impact of heat waves on electricity spot markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pechan, Anna; Eisenack, Klaus

2014-01-01

Thermoelectric power plants depend on cooling water drawn from water bodies. Low river run-off and/or high water temperatures limit a plant's production capacity. This problem may intensify with climate change. Our study quantifies the impact of forced capacity reductions on market prices, production costs, consumer and producer surplus, as well as emissions by means of a bottom-up power generation system model. First, we simulate the German electricity spot market during the heat wave of 2006. Then we conduct a sensitivity study that accounts for future climatic and technological conditions. We find an average price increase of 11% during the heat wave 2006, which is even more pronounced during times of peak demand. Production costs accumulate to an additional but moderate 16 m. Due to the price increase, producers gain from the heat wave, whereas consumers disproportionately bear the costs. Carbon emissions in the German electricity sector increase during the heat wave. The price and cost effects are more pronounced and increase significantly if assumptions on heat-sensitive demand, hydropower capacity, net exports, and capacity reductions are tightened. These are potential additional effects of climate change. Hence, if mitigation fails or is postponed globally, the impacts on the current energy system are very likely to rise. Increases in feed-in from renewable resources and demand-side management can counter the effects to a considerable degree. Countries with a shift toward a renewable energy supply can be expected to be much less susceptible to cooling water scarcity than those with a high share of nuclear and coal-fired power plants. - Highlights: • We quantify the impact of thermal capacity reductions on the electricity market. • German heat wave 2006 caused moderate rise in production costs. • Capacity reductions have substantial impact on prices and raise producer surplus. • Impacts on prices, production cost and surplus amplify under climate

Legal market abuse regulations of WpHG (law on stock trading) and the REMIT-VO in the electricity spot trading; Marktmissbrauchsrechtliche Regelungen des WpHG und der REMIT-VO im Stromspothandel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Retsch, Alexander T.

2014-07-01

The thesis on legal market abuse regulations of WpHG (law on stock trading) and the REMIT-VO in the electricity spot trading include the discussion of the following issues: market abuse, its forms of appearance (market manipulation, insider trade, insider information), electricity spot trading, relevant legislative frame, market abuse regulations (WpHG), interdiction of market manipulation and related regulations.

Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy; Redes neurais artificiais aplicadas na previsao de precos spot no mercado de energia eletrica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso [Univesidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia], emails: alcantaro@iee.usp.br, aquiles@iee.usp.br

2010-07-01

The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

JST Thesaurus Headwords and Synonyms: tomato spotted wilt virus [MeCab user dictionary for science technology term[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available MeCab user dictionary for science technology term tomato spotted wilt virus 名詞 一般 *... * * * トマト黄化壊疽ウイルス トマトオウカエソウイルス トマトーウカエソーイルス Thesaurus2015 200906028155287444 C LS07 UNKNOWN_2 tomato spotted wilt virus

The spot market and the spot price: applicability and limitations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, G. Jr.

1987-01-01

The subject of spot prices and their relationship to long-term contracting is addressed. The author is associated with Nuexco, which originally was called the Nuclear Exchange Corporation. They use the term Exchange Value which originated in the idea that Nuexco operated an exchange 'bank' - those with too much uranium could 'bank it', those with short-term needs could borrow from the 'bank'. If the borrower repaid slightly more or less the difference was settled using the 'exchange value'. This became used for longer-term transactions and now settling the monthly value is an important part of Nuexco's activities. The exact nature of the Exchange Value is defined. Now more and more buyers are insisting on spot market related pricing even where this is not meaningfully related to uranium production costs. (U.K.)

Effects of long-term contracts on firms exercising market power in transmission constrained electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nam, Young Woo; Yoon, Yong Tae; Park, Jong-Keun; Hur, Don; Kim, Sung-Soo

2006-01-01

The electricity markets with only few large firms are often vulnerable to less competitive behaviors than the desired. The presence of transmission constraints further restrict the competition among firms and provide more opportunities for firms to exercise market power. While it is generally acknowledged that the long-term contracts provide good measures for mitigating market power in the spot market (thus reducing undesired price spikes), it is not even more clear how effective these contracts are if the market is severely limited due to transmission constraints. In this paper, an analytical approach through finding a Nash equilibrium is presented to investigate the effects of long-term contracts on firms exercising market power in a bid-based pool with transmission constraints. Surprisingly the analysis in this paper shows that the presence of long-term contracts may result in the reduced expected social welfare. A straightforward consequence of the analysis presented in this paper will be helpful for the regulators in Korea to reconsider offering vesting contracts to generating companies in the near future. (author)

The prerequisites for effective competition in restructured wholesale electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haas, R.; Auer, H.

2006-01-01

This paper argues that effective competition in reformed wholesale electricity markets can only be achieved if the following six prerequisites are met: (1) separation of the grid from generation and supply; (2) wholesale price deregulation; (3) sufficient transmission capacity for a competitive market and non-discriminating grid access; (4) excess generation capacity developed by a large number of competing generators; (5) an equilibrium relationship between short-term spot markets and the long-term financial instruments that marketers use to manage spot-market price volatility; (6) an essentially hands-off government policy that encompasses reduced oversight and privatization. The absence of any one of the first five conditions may result in an oligopoly or monopoly market whose economic performance does not meet the efficiency standards of a competently managed regulated electrical utility. (author)

A study of the long-term properties of Jovian hot spots from HST and ground-based observations between 1994 and 1998

Science.gov (United States)

Arregui, E.; Rojas, J. F.; Sanchez-Lavega, A.; Lecacheux, J.; Colas, F.; Miyazaki, I.; Parker, D.

2000-10-01

We have used the HST-WFPC2 archived images of Jupiter in the period 1994-1998 together with a large set of CCD ground based images, to study the zonal distribution, long-term motions, lifetimes, interactions and other properties of the hot spot - plume regions at 7 degrees North. Red and near infrared filters covering the wavelength range 650 - 953 nm have been used since they show the hot spots with a high contrast. We have found that the hot spots have velocities ranging from 95 to 112 m/s and are grouped typically in families of three to six members. We do not found any correlation between their velocity and wavenumber. The long-term survey allowed us to identify mergers and splitting of the hot spots areas. The Spanish team was supported by Gobierno Vasco PI 034/97. The French team was supported by the "Programme National de Planetologie."

Long-term Spot-Coverage Variations of 13 BY Dra G-K Dwarfs

Science.gov (United States)

Alekseev, I. Yu.; Kozhevnikova, A. V.

2018-06-01

The results of spot-coverage modeling for 13 active G-K dwarf stars based on many-year photometric observations are presented. The results of UBV RI observations of eight stars performed at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory were used together with data from the literature in this analysis. The spot-coverage parameters for 13 selected BY Dra active red dwarfs have been redetermined to improve the zonal spot-coverage model for the stellar photospheres, which currently allows for the presence of two active longitudes. Time variations of the spot-activity characteristics of these systems were analyzed with the aim of searching for possible cyclic variations. All the stars, with the exception of OU Gem and BE Cet, show fairly strong correlations between variations in the spot latitudes and spot areas, with absolute values of the correlation coefficients, R(, S), ranging from 0.38 to 0.92. For five stars, an anti-correlation between the mean latitude and area of the spots was found ( R(, S) from-0.24 to-0.73). This behavior may reflect the drift of spots toward the equator in the course of their development. Eight stars feature positive correlations, i.e. the spots drift towards the pole as their areas increase. Nine stars demonstrate activity cycles, which are reflected in photometric variations as well as variations of the spot areas and mean latitudes. The periods of the latitude drift of the spots are found for five stars; the magnitudes of the spot-latitude drift rates are lower than the corresponding value for sunspots by a factor of 1.5-3.

Experimental Study of Tensile Test in Resistance Spot Welding Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lebbal Habib

Full Text Available Abstract Resistance spot welding (RSW is a widely used joining process for fabricating sheet metal assemblies in automobile industry .In comparison with other welding processes the RSW is faster and easier for automation. This process involves electrical, thermal and mechanical interactions. Resistance spot welding primarily takes place by localized melting spot at the interface of the sheets followed by its quick solidification under sequential control of pressure water-cooled electrode and flow of required electric current for certain duration. In this work the tensile tests were studied, the results obtained show that the type material, the overlap length, the angle of the rolling direction and the thickness of the sheet have an influence in resistance spot welding process.

Perspectives for long-term competition in the central European electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haas, Reinhard

2005-01-01

In this paper we focus on the Central European electricity market and analyse whether liberalization, deregulation, and privatization are sufficient to bring about real competition. Moreover, we discuss the relevance of the following conditions to bring about real competition and to avoid market power: 1) A rigorous correct un bundling; 2) excess capacities in transmission; 3) excess capacities in generation; 4) a large number of generators and suppliers; 5) the balanced existence of short-term (e.g. spot markets) and long-term markets (e.g. bilateral contracts, forwards); 6) full liberalization; Some major findings of this analysis are: 1) Currently, demand is continuously increasing while capacities are shut down. At least in 2009 demand will have caught up with generation capacities. This could lead to severe price spikes. 2) The Central European electricity market is separated from other markets by means of limited transmission capacities; 3) With respect to effective competition in Central Europe the major problems are: i) a very small (and continuously decreasing) number of generators, and ii) a lack of serious un bundling between generation and transmission mainly in Germany; This leads to cross-subsidization of generation by the network operation and to a heavy discrimination of other and new generators; 4) Moreover, a crucial condition for active competition is a sufficiently large transmission grid. Yet, currently especially at the border to the new EU member countries transmission capacities are rather scarce and there are no signs of extensions of the grid. This also limits the access of countries with potential excess capacities like Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania to the Central European market The major conclusion of this analysis is: All conditions investigated above must be fulfilled simultaneously to bring about a competitive electricity market in Western Europe and the extended European Union. If only one of these conditions is missing, competition

Modeling of electric and heat processes in spot resistance welding of cross-wire steel bars

Science.gov (United States)

Iatcheva, Ilona; Darzhanova, Denitsa; Manilova, Marina

2018-03-01

The aim of this work is the modeling of coupled electric and heat processes in a system for spot resistance welding of cross-wire reinforced steel bars. The real system geometry, dependences of material properties on the temperature, and changes of contact resistance and released power during the welding process have been taken into account in the study. The 3D analysis of the coupled AC electric and transient thermal field distributions is carried out using the finite element method. The novel feature is that the processes are modeled for several successive time stages, corresponding to the change of contact area, related contact resistance, and reduction of the released power, occurring simultaneously with the creation of contact between the workpieces. The values of contact resistance and power changes have been determined on the basis of preliminary experimental and theoretical investigations. The obtained results present the electric and temperature field distributions in the system. Special attention has been paid to the temperature evolution at specified observation points and lines in the contact area. The obtained information could be useful for clarification of the complicated nature of interrelated electric, thermal, mechanical, and physicochemical welding processes. Adequate modeling is also an opportunity for proper control and improvement of the system.

Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higgs, Helen

2009-01-01

This paper examines the inter-relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM): namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria using the constant conditional correlation and Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) and Engle's (Engle, R., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 339-350.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model which takes account of the Student t specification produces the best results. At the univariate GARCH(1,1) level, the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets. In the dynamic conditional correlation equation, the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well-connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well-interconnected markets. (author)

Australia's long-term electricity demand forecasting using deep neural networks

OpenAIRE

Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun; Joorabloo, Nima; Jalili, Mahdi

2018-01-01

Accurate prediction of long-term electricity demand has a significant role in demand side management and electricity network planning and operation. Demand over-estimation results in over-investment in network assets, driving up the electricity prices, while demand under-estimation may lead to under-investment resulting in unreliable and insecure electricity. In this manuscript, we apply deep neural networks to predict Australia's long-term electricity demand. A stacked autoencoder is used in...

Aggregators’ Optimal Bidding Strategy in Sequential Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Spot Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaolin Ayón

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a probabilistic optimization method that produces optimal bidding curves to be submitted by an aggregator to the day-ahead electricity market and the intraday market, considering the flexible demand of his customers (based in time dependent resources such as batteries and shiftable demand and taking into account the possible imbalance costs as well as the uncertainty of forecasts (market prices, demand, and renewable energy sources (RES generation. The optimization strategy aims to minimize the total cost of the traded energy over a whole day, taking into account the intertemporal constraints. The proposed formulation leads to the solution of different linear optimization problems, following the natural temporal sequence of electricity spot markets. Intertemporal constraints regarding time dependent resources are fulfilled through a scheduling process performed after the day-ahead market clearing. Each of the different problems is of moderate dimension and requires short computation times. The benefits of the proposed strategy are assessed comparing the payments done by an aggregator over a sample period of one year following different deterministic and probabilistic strategies. Results show that probabilistic strategy reports better benefits for aggregators participating in power markets.

Charge-Spot Model for Electrostatic Forces in Simulation of Fine Particulates

Science.gov (United States)

Walton, Otis R.; Johnson, Scott M.

2010-01-01

The charge-spot technique for modeling the static electric forces acting between charged fine particles entails treating electric charges on individual particles as small sets of discrete point charges, located near their surfaces. This is in contrast to existing models, which assume a single charge per particle. The charge-spot technique more accurately describes the forces, torques, and moments that act on triboelectrically charged particles, especially image-charge forces acting near conducting surfaces. The discrete element method (DEM) simulation uses a truncation range to limit the number of near-neighbor charge spots via a shifted and truncated potential Coulomb interaction. The model can be readily adapted to account for induced dipoles in uncharged particles (and thus dielectrophoretic forces) by allowing two charge spots of opposite signs to be created in response to an external electric field. To account for virtual overlap during contacts, the model can be set to automatically scale down the effective charge in proportion to the amount of virtual overlap of the charge spots. This can be accomplished by mimicking the behavior of two real overlapping spherical charge clouds, or with other approximate forms. The charge-spot method much more closely resembles real non-uniform surface charge distributions that result from tribocharging than simpler approaches, which just assign a single total charge to a particle. With the charge-spot model, a single particle may have a zero net charge, but still have both positive and negative charge spots, which could produce substantial forces on the particle when it is close to other charges, when it is in an external electric field, or when near a conducting surface. Since the charge-spot model can contain any number of charges per particle, can be used with only one or two charge spots per particle for simulating charging from solar wind bombardment, or with several charge spots for simulating triboelectric charging

Metallurgical Effects of Shunting Current on Resistance Spot-Welded Joints of AA2219 Sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Jafari Vardanjani, M.; Araee, A.; Senkara, J.; Jakubowski, J.; Godek, J.

2016-08-01

Shunting effect is the loss of electrical current via the secondary circuit provided due to the existence of previous nugget in a series of welding spots. This phenomenon influences on metallurgical aspects of resistance spot-welded (RSW) joints in terms of quality and performance. In this paper RSW joints of AA2219 sheets with 1 mm thickness are investigated metallurgically for shunted and single spots. An electro-thermal finite element analysis is performed on the RSW process of shunted spot and temperature distribution and variation are obtained. These predictions are then compared with experimental micrographs. Three values of 5 mm, 20 mm, and infinite (i.e., single spot) are assumed for welding distance. Numerical and experimental results are matching each other in terms of nugget and HAZ geometry as increasing distance raised nugget size and symmetry of HAZ. In addition, important effect of shunting current on nugget thickness, microstructure, and Copper segregation on HAZ grain boundaries were discovered. A quantitative analysis is also performed about the influence of welding distance on important properties including ratio of nugget thickness and diameter ( r t), ratio of HAZ area on shunted and free side of nugget ( r HA), and ratio of equivalent segregated and total amount of Copper, measured in sample ( r Cu) on HAZ. Increasing distance from 5 mm to infinite, indicated a gain of 111.04, -45.55, and -75.15% in r t, r HA, and r Cu, respectively, while obtained ratios for 20 mm welding distance was suitable compared to single spot.

The kinematic advantage of electric cars

Science.gov (United States)

Meyn, Jan-Peter

2015-11-01

Acceleration of a common car with with a turbocharged diesel engine is compared to the same type with an electric motor in terms of kinematics. Starting from a state of rest, the electric car reaches a distant spot earlier than the diesel car, even though the latter has a better specification for engine power and average acceleration from 0 to 100 km h-1. A three phase model of acceleration as a function of time fits the data of the electric car accurately. The first phase is a quadratic growth of acceleration in time. It is shown that the tenfold higher coefficient for the first phase accounts for most of the kinematic advantage of the electric car.

Long-term impacts of battery electric vehicles on the German electricity system

Science.gov (United States)

Heinrichs, H. U.; Jochem, P.

2016-05-01

The emerging market for electric vehicles gives rise to an additional electricity demand. This new electricity demand will affect the electricity system. For quantifying those impacts a model-based approach, which covers long-term time horizons is necessary in order to consider the long lasting investment paths in electricity systems and the market development of electric mobility. Therefore, we apply a bottom-up electricity system model showing a detailed spatial resolution for different development paths of electric mobility in Germany until 2030. This model is based on a linear optimization which minimizes the discounted costs of the electricity system. We observe an increase of electricity exchange between countries and electricity generated by renewable energy sources. One major result turns out to be that electric vehicles can be integrated in the electricity system without increasing the system costs when a controlled (postponing) charging strategy for electric vehicles is applied. The impact on the power plant portfolio is insignificant. Another important side effect of electric vehicles is their substantial contribution to decreasing CO2 emissions of the German transport sector. Hence, electric mobility might be an integral part of a sustainable energy system of tomorrow.

The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sensfuss, Frank; Ragwitz, Mario; Genoese, Massimo

2008-01-01

The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers. (author)

MASCEM: EPEX SPOT Day-Ahead market integration and simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Santos, Gabriel; Fernandes, Ricardo; Pinto, Tiago

2015-01-01

. It is crucial to MASCEM to have the ability to simulate as many market models and player types as possible, thus enhancing the ability to recreate the electricity markets reality in its maximum possible extent. This paper presents the EPEX Spot Day-Ahead market integration in MASCEM. EPEX Spot SE's mission...

Model for calculation of spot prices and uncertainties integration; Modelo de calculo de precos spot e integracao de incertezas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saraiva, J. Tome [Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), Porto (Portugal). E-mail: jsaraiva@inescn.pt

1999-07-01

This paper presents a model for systematic and structured impact evaluation of the uncertainties existent in the load powers, on the spot prices on the various bars of a electric power system. The application developed allows the specification of load power as inaccurate trapezoidal numbers and adopts the DC model for the representation of system exploration conditions. Considering the influence of the loss power on the formulation of a spot prices spatial distribution, the model allows the inclusion of transmission network loss estimation. The results correspond to appurtenance functions of spot prices in each barm, consisting of a discrete set of ordered pais which integrates the spot price values and the appurtenance or compatibility level, in accordance with Fuzzy Sets.

The Relationship Between Electricity Price and Wind Power Generation in Danish Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2010-01-01

of competitive electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. The relationship between the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price) and the wind power generation in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price, the down regulation price...... and the up regulation price generally decreases when the wind power penetration in the power system increases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price for different wind power penetration are analyzed. The findings of this paper may be useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal...... bidding strategy and may be also useful for the optimal operation of modern power systems with high wind power penetrations....

Prices on electricity and transmission of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This publication contains data on prices of electric energy and transmission of electricity valid from 1 January 2003. The purpose is to illustrate the price changes on the electricity market in terms of prices for different customer categories. All companies holding network concessions for areas and all companies trading in electricity are included in this report, which is produced on an annual basis.The prices for transmission services 1 January 2003 were on the whole unchanged compared to the preceding year. For households the mean annual cost was SEK 882 for flats, SEK 4 335 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 1 925 for those without electric heating. Electricity prices rose considerably on 1 January 2003 compared to the year before. The mean price per kWh for households with standard agreements was SEK 0.519 for deliveries to flats, SEK 0.447 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 0.471 without electric heating. As a result, the mean annual cost increased by SEK 326 for flats, SEK 3 012 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating, and by SEK 774 for those houses without electric heating. The high costs of electricity may be explained in part by the development on the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool), where the spot price increased by about 290 per cent during 2002 (1 USD is about 8 SEK)

Using neural networks and extreme value distributions to model electricity pool prices: Evidence from the Australian National Electricity Market 1998–2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dev, Priya; Martin, Michael A.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Neural nets are unable to properly capture spiky price behavior found in the electricity market. • We modeled electricity price data from the Australian National Electricity Market over 15 years. • Neural nets need to be augmented with other modeling techniques to capture price spikes. • We fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price spikes using a peaks-over-thresholds approach. - Abstract: Competitors in the electricity supply industry desire accurate predictions of electricity spot prices to hedge against financial risks. Neural networks are commonly used for forecasting such prices, but certain features of spot price series, such as extreme price spikes, present critical challenges for such modeling. We investigate the predictive capacity of neural networks for electricity spot prices using Australian National Electricity Market data. Following neural net modeling of the data, we explore extreme price spikes through extreme value modeling, fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price peaks over an estimated threshold. While neural nets capture the smoother aspects of spot price data, they are unable to capture local, volatile features that characterize electricity spot price data. Price spikes can be modeled successfully through extreme value modeling

Impacts of subsidized renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany: evidence from a Garch model with panel data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pham, Thao; Lemoine, Killian

2015-01-01

Electricity generated by renewable energy sources creates a downward pressure on wholesale prices through - the so-called 'merit order effect'. This effect tends to lower average power prices and average market revenue that renewables producers should have received, making integration costs of renewables very high at large penetration rate. It is therefore crucial to determine the amplitude of this merit order effect particularly in the context of increasing burden of renewable support policies borne by final consumers. Using hourly data for the period 2009-2012 in German electricity wholesale market for GARCH model under panel data framework, we find that wind and solar power generation injected into German electricity network during this period induces a decrease of electricity spot prices and a slight increase of their volatility. The model-based results suggest that the merit-order effect created by renewable production ranges from 3.86 to 8.34 euro/MWh which implies to the annual volume of consumers' surplus from 1.89 to 3.92 billion euros. However this surplus has not been re-distributed equally among different types of electricity consumers. (authors)

Operation of Modern Distribution Power Systems in Competitive Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao

, DG units, loads and electricity price are studied. Further, the effect of energy storage systems will be considered, and an optimal operation strategy for energy storage devices in a large scale wind power system in the electricity market is proposed. The western Danish power system, which has large...... strategy for trading wind power in the Danish short-term electricity market in order to minimize the imbalance costs for regulation. A load optimization method based on spot price for demand side management in Denmark is proposed in order to save the energy costs for 3 types of typical Danish consumers...... maximum profit of the BESS is proposed. Two kinds of BESS, based on polysulfide-bromine (PSB) and vanadium redox (VRB) battery technologies, are studied. Optimal operation strategies of PEV in the spot market are then proposed in order to decrease the energy cost for PEV owners. Furthermore...

Near-term electric-vehicle program. Phase II. Mid-term review summary report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1978-07-27

The general objective of the Near-Term Electric Vehicle Program is to confirm that, in fact, the complete spectrum of requirements placed on the automobile (e.g., safety, producibility, utility, etc.) can still be satisfied if electric power train concepts are incorporated in lieu of contemporary power train concepts, and that the resultant set of vehicle characteristics are mutually compatible, technologically achievable, and economically achievable. The focus of the approach to meeting this general objective involves the design, development, and fabrication of complete electric vehicles incorporating, where necessary, extensive technological advancements. A mid-term summary is presented of Phase II which is a continuation of the preliminary design study conducted in Phase I of the program. Information is included on vehicle performance and performance simulation models; battery subsystems; control equipment; power systems; vehicle design and components for suspension, steering, and braking; scale model testing; structural analysis; and vehicle dynamics analysis. (LCL)

Quantitative and experimental analysis of investment incentive mechanisms in electricity markets: short- and long-term analysis of actors' strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalfallah, Mohamed Haikel

2009-01-01

In this thesis, we deal with the question of reliability of electricity system and particularly the problem of generation capacity adequacy in electricity markets, characterized by uncertain and volatile demand. This question is currently the object of many politics and economics debates in the European Commission of energy. It occurs within the context of de-regulations and reforms of liberalization operated in western countries. This deregulation was caused many shortages and crisis in many electricity markets in the world. Failures are caused by several factors such as, the presence of uncertainties on future demand and fuel prices, the risk-averse behavior of investors and the market power exercised by existing generators. They had led to high spot market prices and a fundamental imbalance between the steadily growing demand for power and the limited increases, due to the lack of investments, in generation capacities. Many mechanisms, additional to the energy market, that ensure an adequate incentive for investments and a stable and socially acceptable electricity prices have been proposed. In this work, we compare different investment incentive mechanisms, in terms of long-term capacity adequacy in an uncertain environment, cost effectiveness and the ability of reducing market power. In the literature, the problem of long-term system reliability has been largely studied in qualitative terms. A few works attempt to model the quantitative effects of those market designs. The contribution of this work is to propose a quantitative analysis based on dynamics models. Competition is considered by using the principles of game theory. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to deal with the stochastic environment of the market and mixed complementarity problem and variational inequality formulations are employed to find Nash equilibrium. In addition to the analytic analysis, an experimental study is carried out in order to include a larger diversity of strategy. The

Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

2018-04-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

Spots on electrodes and images of a gap during pulsed discharges in an inhomogeneous electric field at elevated pressures of air, nitrogen and argon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shao, Tao; Yang, Wenjin; Zhang, Cheng; Yan, Ping; Tarasenko, Victor F; Beloplotov, Dmitry V; Lomaev, Mikhail I; Sorokin, Dmitry A

2014-01-01

Pulsed discharge in a nonuniform electric field accompanied by the appearance of bright spots due to explosive electron emission on electrodes has been investigated. The experiments were carried out using three experimental setups, a voltage pulse duration at a matched load of 2 ns, 40 ns, and 130 ns, respectively. Data on the formation of electrode spots during diffuse discharges in tube-plate or needle-plate gap configurations filled with gases at elevated pressures (air, nitrogen and argon) were obtained. It was found that in the air and other gases, bright spots arise on the flat electrode, and on the negative polarity of the electrode with a small radius of curvature, during the direction change of the current through the gap and the increase of the voltage pulse duration. It was shown that at the positive polarity of the electrode with a small radius of curvature, bright spots on the flat electrode arise due to the participation of the dynamic displacement current in the gap conductance. (paper)

Relationship between hot spot residues and ligand binding hot spots in protein-protein interfaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Zerbe, Brandon S; Hall, David R; Vajda, Sandor; Whitty, Adrian; Kozakov, Dima

2012-08-27

In the context of protein-protein interactions, the term "hot spot" refers to a residue or cluster of residues that makes a major contribution to the binding free energy, as determined by alanine scanning mutagenesis. In contrast, in pharmaceutical research, a hot spot is a site on a target protein that has high propensity for ligand binding and hence is potentially important for drug discovery. Here we examine the relationship between these two hot spot concepts by comparing alanine scanning data for a set of 15 proteins with results from mapping the protein surfaces for sites that can bind fragment-sized small molecules. We find the two types of hot spots are largely complementary; the residues protruding into hot spot regions identified by computational mapping or experimental fragment screening are almost always themselves hot spot residues as defined by alanine scanning experiments. Conversely, a residue that is found by alanine scanning to contribute little to binding rarely interacts with hot spot regions on the partner protein identified by fragment mapping. In spite of the strong correlation between the two hot spot concepts, they fundamentally differ, however. In particular, while identification of a hot spot by alanine scanning establishes the potential to generate substantial interaction energy with a binding partner, there are additional topological requirements to be a hot spot for small molecule binding. Hence, only a minority of hot spots identified by alanine scanning represent sites that are potentially useful for small inhibitor binding, and it is this subset that is identified by experimental or computational fragment screening.

Statistical hot spot analysis of reactor cores

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaefer, H.

1974-05-01

This report is an introduction into statistical hot spot analysis. After the definition of the term 'hot spot' a statistical analysis is outlined. The mathematical method is presented, especially the formula concerning the probability of no hot spots in a reactor core is evaluated. A discussion with the boundary conditions of a statistical hot spot analysis is given (technological limits, nominal situation, uncertainties). The application of the hot spot analysis to the linear power of pellets and the temperature rise in cooling channels is demonstrated with respect to the test zone of KNK II. Basic values, such as probability of no hot spots, hot spot potential, expected hot spot diagram and cumulative distribution function of hot spots, are discussed. It is shown, that the risk of hot channels can be dispersed equally over all subassemblies by an adequate choice of the nominal temperature distribution in the core

Uranium ... long-term confidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1983-01-01

Half way through 1983 the outlook for the world's uranium producers was far from bright if one takes a short term view. The readily accessible facts present a gloomy picture. The spot prices of uranium over the past few years decreased from a high of $42-$43/lb to a low of $17 in 1982. It now hovers between $23 and $24. the contract prices negotiated between producers and consumers are not so accessible but they do not reflect the spot price. The reasons why contractual uranium prices do not follow the usual dictates of supply and demand are related to the position in which uranium and associated power industries find themselves. There is public reaction with strong emotional overtones as well as much reduced expectations about the electric power needs of the world. Furthermore the supply of uranium is not guaranteed despite present over production. However the people in the industry, taking the medium- and long-term view, are not despondent

Prices on electricity and transmission of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

This publication contains data on prices of electric energy and transmission of electricity valid on 1 January 2002. The purpose is to illustrate the price changes on the electricity market in terms of prices for different customer categories. All companies holding network concessions for areas and all companies trading in electricity are included in this report, which is produced on an annual basis. The prices for transmission services 1 January 2002 were on the whole unchanged compared to the preceding year. For households the mean annual cost was SEK 856 for flats, SEK 4,194 one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 1,881 without electric heating. (1 SEK ∼ 0.1 USD). Electricity prices rose considerably on 1 January 2002 compared to the year before. The mean price per kWh for households according to standard agreement was SEK 0.356 for deliveries to flats, SEK 0.296 for apartments in one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 0.316 without electric heating. That means that the mean annual cost increased by SEK 171 for flats. For one- or two-family houses with electric heating, costs increased by SEK 1,424, and by SEK 379 for those houses without electric heating. The high costs of electricity may be explained in part by the development on the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool), where the spot price increased by 75 per cent during 2001. The price development for household customers during 1996-2002 is shown in a diagram

Long-term Comparison of a Large Spot Vacuum Assisted Handpiece vs the Small Spot Size Traditional Handpiece of the 800 nm Diode Laser.

Science.gov (United States)

Youssef, Nour J; Rizk, Alain G; Ibrahimi, Omar A; Tannous, Zeina S

2017-09-01

BACKGROUND The 800 nm long-pulsed diode laser machine is safe and effective for permanent hair reduction. Traditionally, most long-pulsed diode lasers used for hair removal had a relatively small spot size. Recently, a long-pulsed diode laser with a large spot size and vacuum assisted suction handpiece was introduced. The treatment parameters of each type of handpiece differ. Short and long-term clinical efficacy, treatment associated pain, and patient satisfaction are important factors to be considered. This study aims to conduct a direct head to head comparison of both handpieces of the 800nm long-pulsed diode laser by evaluating long term hair reduction, treatment associated pain and patient satisfaction. Thirteen subjects were enrolled in this prospective, self-controlled, single-center study of axillary laser hair removal. The study involved 4 treatments using a long pulsed diode laser with a large spot size HS handpiece (single pass), HS handpiece (double pass), and a small spot size ET handpiece according to a randomized choice. The treatment sessions were done at 4-8 week intervals with follow up visits taken at 6 and 12 months after the last treatment session. Hair clearance and thickness analysis were assessed using macro hair count photographs taken at baseline visit, at each treatment session visit and at follow up visits. Other factors including pain, treatment duration, and patients' preference were secondary study endpoints. At 6 months follow up visits after receiving four laser treatments, there was statistically significant hair clearance in the three treatment arms with 66.1 % mean percentage hair reduction with the ET handpiece, 43.6% with the HSS (single pass) and 64.1 % with the HSD (double). However, at one year follow up, the results significantly varied from the 6 months follow up. The mean percentage hair reduction was 57.8% with the ET handpiece treated axillas (n=9), 16.5% with the HSS (single pass) handpiece treated axillas (n=7), and

Stochastic Optimal Wind Power Bidding Strategy in Short-Term Electricity Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2012-01-01

Due to the fluctuating nature and non-perfect forecast of the wind power, the wind power owners are penalized for the imbalance costs of the regulation, when they trade wind power in the short-term liberalized electricity market. Therefore, in this paper a formulation of an imbalance cost...... minimization problem for trading wind power in the short-term electricity market is described, to help the wind power owners optimize their bidding strategy. Stochastic optimization and a Monte Carlo method are adopted to find the optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the short-term electricity...... market in order to deal with the uncertainty of the regulation price, the activated regulation of the power system and the forecasted wind power generation. The Danish short-term electricity market and a wind farm in western Denmark are chosen as study cases due to the high wind power penetration here...

Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

Science.gov (United States)

Rubin, Ofir David

precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

Hot Spot Removal System: System description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-09-01

Hazardous wastes contaminated with radionuclides, chemicals, and explosives exist across the Department of Energy complex and need to be remediated due to environmental concerns. Currently, an opportunity is being developed to dramatically reduce remediation costs and to assist in the acceleration of schedules associated with these wastes by deploying a Hot Spot Removal System. Removing the hot spot from the waste site will remove risk driver(s) and enable another, more cost effective process/option/remedial alternative (i.e., capping) to be applied to the remainder of the site. The Hot Spot Removal System consists of a suite of technologies that will be utilized to locate and remove source terms. Components of the system can also be used in a variety of other cleanup activities. This Hot Spot Removal System Description document presents technologies that were considered for possible inclusion in the Hot Spot Removal System, technologies made available to the Hot Spot Removal System, industrial interest in the Hot Spot Removal System`s subsystems, the schedule required for the Hot Spot Removal System, the evaluation of the relevant technologies, and the recommendations for equipment and technologies as stated in the Plan section.

Hot Spot Removal System: System description

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-09-01

Hazardous wastes contaminated with radionuclides, chemicals, and explosives exist across the Department of Energy complex and need to be remediated due to environmental concerns. Currently, an opportunity is being developed to dramatically reduce remediation costs and to assist in the acceleration of schedules associated with these wastes by deploying a Hot Spot Removal System. Removing the hot spot from the waste site will remove risk driver(s) and enable another, more cost effective process/option/remedial alternative (i.e., capping) to be applied to the remainder of the site. The Hot Spot Removal System consists of a suite of technologies that will be utilized to locate and remove source terms. Components of the system can also be used in a variety of other cleanup activities. This Hot Spot Removal System Description document presents technologies that were considered for possible inclusion in the Hot Spot Removal System, technologies made available to the Hot Spot Removal System, industrial interest in the Hot Spot Removal System''s subsystems, the schedule required for the Hot Spot Removal System, the evaluation of the relevant technologies, and the recommendations for equipment and technologies as stated in the Plan section

Consistent melanophore spot patterns allow long-term individual recognition of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Science.gov (United States)

Stien, L H; Nilsson, J; Bui, S; Fosseidengen, J E; Kristiansen, T S; Øverli, Ø; Folkedal, O

2017-12-01

The present study shows that permanent melanophore spot patterns in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar make it possible to use images of the operculum to keep track of individual fish over extended periods of their life history. Post-smolt S. salar (n = 246) were initially photographed at an average mass of 98 g and again 10 months later after rearing in a sea cage, at an average mass of 3088 g. Spots that were present initially remained and were the most overt (largest) 10 months later, while new and less overt spots had developed. Visual recognition of spot size and position showed that fish with at least four initial spots were relatively easy to identify, while identifying fish with less than four spots could be challenging. An automatic image analysis method was developed and shows potential for fast match processing of large numbers of fish. The current findings promote visual recognition of opercular spots as a welfare-friendly alternative to tagging in experiments involving salmonid fishes. © The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Long-term Nash equilibria in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pozo, David; Contreras, Javier; Caballero, Angel; de Andres, Antonio

2011-01-01

In competitive electricity markets, companies simultaneously offer their productions to obtain the maximum profits on a daily basis. In the long run, the strategies utilized by the electric companies lead to various long-term equilibria that can be analyzed with the appropriate tools. We present a methodology to find plausible long-term Nash equilibria in pool-based electricity markets. The methodology is based on an iterative market Nash equilibrium model in which the companies can decide upon their offer strategies. An exponential smoothing of the bids submitted by the companies is applied to facilitate the convergence of the iterative procedure. In each iteration of the model the companies face residual demand curves that are accurately modeled by Hermite interpolating polynomials. We introduce the concept of meta-game equilibrium strategies to allow companies to have a range of offer strategies where several pure and mixed meta-game Nash equilibria are possible. With our model it is also possible to model uncertainty or to generate price scenarios for financial models that assess the value of a generating unit by real options analysis. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated with several realistic case studies. (author)

Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Shijie

The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in

Volume higher; spot price ranges widen

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

This article is the October 1994 uranium market summary. During this reporting period, volume on the spot concentrates market doubled. Twelve deals took place: three in the spot concentrates market, one in the medium and long-term market, four in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. The restricted price range widened due to higher prices at the top end of the range, while the unrestricted price range widened because of lower prices at the bottom end. Spot conversion prices were higher, and enrichment prices were unchanged

Forecasting electricity market pricing using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pao, Hsiao-Tien

2007-01-01

Electricity price forecasting is extremely important for all market players, in particular for generating companies: in the short term, they must set up bids for the spot market; in the medium term, they have to define contract policies; and in the long term, they must define their expansion plans. For forecasting long-term electricity market pricing, in order to avoid excessive round-off and prediction errors, this paper proposes a new artificial neural network (ANN) with single output node structure by using direct forecasting approach. The potentials of ANNs are investigated by employing a rolling cross validation scheme. Out of sample performance evaluated with three criteria across five forecasting horizons shows that the proposed ANNs are a more robust multi-step ahead forecasting method than autoregressive error models. Moreover, ANN predictions are quite accurate even when the length of the forecast horizon is relatively short or long

Computation of spot prices and congestion costs in large interconnected power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukerji, R.; Jordan, G.A.; Clayton, R.; Haringa, G.E.

1995-01-01

Foremost among the new paradigms for the US utility industry is the ''poolco'' concept proposed by Prof. William W. Hogan of Harvard University. This concept uses a central pool or power exchange in which physical power is traded based on spot prices or market clearing prices. The rapid and accurate calculation of these ''spot'' prices and associated congestion costs for large interconnected power systems is the central tenet upon which the poolco concept is based. The market clearing price would be the same throughout the system if there were no system losses and transmission limitations did not exist. System losses cause small differences in market clearing prices as the cost of supplying a MW at various load buses includes the cost of losses. Transmission limits may cause large differences in market clearing prices between regions as low cost generation is blocked by the transmission constraints from serving certain loads. In models currently in use in the electric power industry spot price calculations range from ''bubble diagram'' type contract path models to full electrical representation such as GE-MAPS. The modeling aspects of the full electrical representation are included in the Appendix. The problem with the bubble diagram representation is that these models are liable to produce unacceptably large errors in the calculation of spot prices and congestion costs. The subtleties of the calculation of spot prices and congestion costs are illustrated in this paper

Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vehvilaeinen, I.

2004-01-01

This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price movements, and offers a computationally efficient way of simulating spot prices. The thesis shows that the connection between spot prices and electricity forward prices is nontrivial because electricity is a commodity that must be consumed immediately. Consequently, forward prices of different times are based on the supply-demand conditions at those times. This thesis introduces a statistical model that captures the main characteristics of observed forward price movements. The thesis presents the pricing problems relating to the common Nordic electricity derivatives, as well as the pricing relations between electricity derivatives. The special characteristics of electricity make spot electricity market incomplete. The thesis assumes the existence of a risk-neutral martingale measure so that formal pricing results can be obtained. Some concepts introduced in financial markets are directly usable in the electricity markets. The risk management application in this thesis uses a static optimal portfolio selection framework where Monte Carlo simulation provides quantitative results. The application of mathematical finance requires careful consideration of the special characteristics of the electricity markets. Economic theory and reasoning have to be taken into account when constructing financial models in competitive electricity markets. (orig.)

Wind power feed-in impact on electricity prices in Germany 2009-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Benhmad

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Until quite recently no electricity system had faced the challenges associated with high penetrations of renewable energy sources (RES. In this paper, we carry out an empirical analysis for Germany, as a country with high penetration of wind energy, to investigate the well-known merit-order effect. Our main empirical findings suggest that the increasing share of wind power in-feed induces a decrease of electricity spot price level but an increase of spot prices volatility. Furthermore, the relationship between wind power and spot electricity prices can be strongly impacted by European electricity grids interconnection which behaves like a safety valve lowering volatility and limiting the price decrease. Therefore, the impacts of wind generated electricity on electricity spot markets are less clearly pronounced in interconnected systems.

The evolution of electricity prices in an uncertain world. Contracting and managing the price risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vassilopoulos, Ph.; Rapin, D.

2004-01-01

With the liberalization of the electricity market, the large industrial consumers saw their electric bill changing nature. Before, this price reflected a long term negotiation with the monopoly, now it is established in a free way via wholesale markets. This evolution marks a transfer of the management of price risk from the producer towards the consumer. This change is not in itself a problem if the hedging instruments are adapted. We note a contamination of the price of the derivative products by the spot while at the same time the traditional relation between cash and term is not always valid for electricity because of its non storability. When well even the price of the derivative products would be formed in an autonomous way, it poses a second problem: that of their indexing on price references like Platt's whose result is assimilated more to a survey of large producers than a true confrontation of supply and demand. This article proposes to examine this change of nature and behaviour of electricity prices. After having explained the intrinsically volatile characteristic of spot prices, we will recall that the products in the long term are not always optimal solutions to decrease this price risk. Lastly, we will highlight a solution of skirting at the risks mentioned above: contracting between producers and consumers. (authors)

Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

2005-01-01

Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market: A neural network approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catalao, J.P.S.; Mariano, S.J.P.S.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Ferreira, L.A.F.M.

2007-01-01

This paper proposes a neural network approach for forecasting short-term electricity prices. Almost until the end of last century, electricity supply was considered a public service and any price forecasting which was undertaken tended to be over the longer term, concerning future fuel prices and technical improvements. Nowadays, short-term forecasts have become increasingly important since the rise of the competitive electricity markets. In this new competitive framework, short-term price forecasting is required by producers and consumers to derive their bidding strategies to the electricity market. Accurate forecasting tools are essential for producers to maximize their profits, avowing profit losses over the misjudgement of future price movements, and for consumers to maximize their utilities. A three-layered feedforward neural network, trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, is used for forecasting next-week electricity prices. We evaluate the accuracy of the price forecasting attained with the proposed neural network approach, reporting the results from the electricity markets of mainland Spain and California. (author)

Demand response in Indian electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de; Smeers, Yves

2012-01-01

This paper outlines a methodology for implementing cost of service regulation in retail market for electricity in India when wholesale market is liberalised and operates through an hourly spot market. As in a developing country context political considerations make tariff levels more important than supply security, satisfying the earmarked level of demand takes a back seat. Retail market regulators are often forced by politicians to keep the retail tariff at suboptimal level. This imposes budget constraint on distribution companies to procure electricity that it requires to meet the earmarked level of demand. This is the way demand response is introduced in the system and has its impact on spot market prices. We model such a situation of not being able to serve the earmarked demand as disutility to the regulator which has to be minimised and we compute associated equilibrium. This results in systematic mechanism for cutting loads. We find that even a small cut in ability of the distribution companies to procure electricity from the spot market has profound impact on the prices in the spot market. - Highlights: ► Modelling the impact of retail tariff in different states on spot prices of electricity in India. ► Retail tariffs are usually fixed below appropriate levels by states due to political reasons. ► Due to revenue constraint distribution utility withdraws demand from spot market in peak hours. ► This adversely affects the scarcity rent of generators and subsequently future investment. ► We show possibility of strategic behaviour among state level regulators in setting retail tariff.

PENGARUH KURS SPOT DAN KURS FORWARD DALAM MEMPREDIKSI FUTURE SPOT PADA PASAR VALAS KAWASAN ASIA TENGGARA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I Gusti Ayu Kade Diana Yanthi

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The importance of the activity in foreign exchange occur as the result of the development of international trading and increased international money and capital movement. The vast development of international economic  caused  economic relationship  among  countries  will  be  linked  to  each other  and  subsequently improve trading activities in their goods, money and capital flows. The variables used in this study are spot, forward  and future  spot. Based  on  the result  of Regression  Estimation  applied in  hypothesis on foreign currencies exchange which done simultaneously are proven able to predict future spot. The investor and international economic  actor could use spot  exchange rate and forward  exchange rate as a  short terms predictor for the next trimester in 2011.

Reassessing the integration of European electricity markets: A fractional cointegration analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

2016-01-01

This study extends existing literature on the assessment of electricity market integration in Europe, by developing and testing hypotheses on the convergence of electricity wholesale prices, and adopting a time-varying fractional cointegration analysis. In addition, the potential impacts of some special events that may affect system capacity (new interconnection, market coupling, increase in share of intermittent generation) on spot and forward markets are considered and evaluated. Daily spot prices from February 2000 to March 2013 of nine European electricity spot markets (APX-UK, APX-NL, Belpex, EPEX-FR, EPEX-DE, IPEX, Nordpool, Omel and OTE) and month-ahead prices in four markets (French, British, German and Dutch) from November 2007 to December 2012 are investigated. Results show that unit root tests, which are generally used in the literature to test market integration, are inadequate for assessing electricity spot market convergence, because spot prices are found to be fractionally integrated and mean-reverting time series. Furthermore, spot price behaviour and their association with different markets change over time, reflecting changes in the EU electrical system. One-month-ahead prices, by contrast, were found to have become more resilient to shocks and to follow more stable trends. - Highlights: • We examine electricity market convergence in the EU. • Common price dynamics are affected by changes in interconnection and capacity. • Forward markets have increased in resilience. • Germany's nuclear plant closures had an adverse effect on most European electricity markets.

Tuning temperature and size of hot spots and hot-spot arrays.

Science.gov (United States)

Saïdi, Elika; Babinet, Nicolas; Lalouat, Loïc; Lesueur, Jérôme; Aigouy, Lionel; Volz, Sébastian; Labéguerie-Egéa, Jessica; Mortier, Michel

2011-01-17

By using scanning thermal microscopy, it is shown that nanoscale constrictions in metallic microwires deposited on an oxidized silicon substrate can be tuned in terms of temperature and confinement size. High-resolution temperature maps indeed show that submicrometer hot spots and hot-spot arrays are obtained when the SiO(2) layer thickness decreases below 100 nm. When the SiO(2) thickness becomes larger, heat is less confined in the vicinity of the constrictions and laterally spreads all along the microwire. These results are in good agreement with numerical simulations, which provide dependences between silica-layer thickness and nanodot shape and temperature. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

CO2-emission trading and green markets for renewable electricity. WILMAR - deliverable 4.1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azuma-Dicke, N.; Weber, C.; Morthorst, P.E.; Ravn, H.F.; Schmidt, R.

2004-06-01

This report is Deliverable 4.1 of the EU project 'Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets' (WILMAR) and de-scribes the application of two policy instruments, Tradable Emissions Permits (TEPs) and Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs) for electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the European Union and the implications for implementation in the Wilmar model. The introduction of a common emission-trading system in the EU is expected to have an upward effect on the spot prices at the electric-ity market. The variations of the spot price imply that some types of power generation may change the situation from earning money to losing money despite the increasing spot price. Heavy restrictions on emissions penalise the fossil-fuelled technologies significantly, and the associated increase in the spot price need not compensate for this. Therefore, a market of TEPs is expected to have a significant influence on the electricity spot price. However, the expected price level of TEPs are met with great uncertainty and a study of a number of economical studies shows a price span between zero and 270 USD per ton of CO 2 depending on the participation or non-participation of countries in the scheme. The price-determination at the TGC market is expected to be closely related to the price at the power spot market as the RE-producers of electricity will have expectations to the total price paid for the energy produced, i.e., for the price of electricity at the spot market plus the price per kWh obtained at the green certificate mar-ket. In the Wilmar model, the TGC market can either be handled exogenously, i.e., the increase in renewable capacity and an average annual TGC price are determined outside the model, or a simple TGC module is developed, including the long-term supply functions for the most relevant renewable technologies and an overall TGC quota. Both solutions are rather simple, but to develop a more advanced model for the TGC market seems to be

Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Polikevych Nataliya I.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

Hot spots and heavily dislocated regions in multicrystalling silicon cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simo, A.; Martinuzzi, S.

1990-01-01

The formation mechanism and the electrical consequences of hot spots have been investigated in multicrystalline solar cells. The hot spots were revealed by means of an infrared camera when the cells are reverse biassed in the dark. The minority carrier diffusion length (L n ), the photovoltage (V oc ) and the photocurrent (J sc ) were measured in the hot spot area and far from this zone thanks to mesa diodes. Dark forward I-V curves lead to values of ideality factor (M) and reverse saturation current (J o ). It is found that J o and M are higher in the hot spot area, while J sc , V oc and at a less extent L n are smaller. Large densities of dislocations and lineages structures are revealed in the abnormally heated regions

Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

OpenAIRE

Vehviläinen, Iivo

2004-01-01

This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price mo...

Empirical analysis of the spot market implications of price-responsive demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddiqui, A.S.

2006-01-01

Although electricity is theoretically an inelastic good in the short term, the steep slope of the supply stack implies that even modest response by demand could translate into reduced capacity requirements and significant price decreases. This article examined the effect of price-responsive demand strategies in an actual deregulated electricity industry. Auction data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead electricity market were used to form supply stacks for various zones. A simple linear demand function was used to determine the effect of price responsiveness on equilibrium spot market price and consumption. The aim was to quantify the benefits from the pricing protocol and to determine whether modest levels of price elasticity can significantly lower prices and consumption. Market-clearing prices and quantities were estimated using various supply curves in order to quantify the responsiveness necessary to achieve given price reductions. Price response was induced in the demand curve by varying its slope. Estimates were then used to estimate the average level of slope needed to reduce the average market-clearing price during the year by a certain percentage. Results showed that an average slope of -50.04 was necessary for prices to be reduced by 25 per cent. Results also showed that necessary price responses can be ascertained for any desired reduction in the market-clearing price or quantity. Although price responsiveness unambiguously reduces the spot market price and quantity, its effect on the forward price is not yet clear. It was concluded that a separate analysis of peak hours may reveal the effectiveness of enhanced price response. 8 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs

Experimental Study of Ignition by Hot Spot in Internal Combustion Engines

Science.gov (United States)

Serruys, Max

1938-01-01

In order to carry out the contemplated study, it was first necessary to provide hot spots in the combustion chamber, which could be measured and whose temperature could be changed. It seemed difficult to realize both conditions working solely on the temperature of the cooling water in a way so as to produce hot spots on the cylinder wall capable of provoking autoignition. Moreover, in the majority of practical cases, autoignition is produced by the spark plug, one of the least cooled parts in the engine. The first procedure therefore did not resemble that which most generally occurs in actual engine operation. All of these considerations caused us to reproduce similar hot spots at the spark plugs. The hot spots produced were of two kinds and designated with the name of thermo-electric spark plug and of metallic hot spot.

Coral bleaching and ocean ''hot spots''

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goreau, T.J. (Global Coral Reef Alliance, Chappaqua, NY (United States)); Hayes, R.L. (Howard Univ., Washington, DC (United States). College of Medicine)

1994-05-01

Global sea-surface temperature maps show that mass coral-reef bleaching episodes between 1983 and 1991 followed positive anomalies more than 1 deg C above long-term monthly averages (''hot spots'') during the preceding warm season. Irregular formation, movement, and disappearance of hot spots make their detailed long-term prediction impossible, but they can be tracked in real time from satellite data. Monitoring of ocean hot spots and of coral bleaching is needed if the Framework Convention of Climate Change is to meet its goal of protecting the most temperature sensitive ecosystems. 47 refs, 3 figs

Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

2015-01-01

This paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected European electricity markets. More specifically, it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in Germany during 2011. The short- and- long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices, from November 2009 to October 2012, in: APX-ENDEX, BELPEX, EPEX-DE, EPEX-FR, NORDPOOL, OMEL and SWISSIX; and wind power in the German system are analysed. Two MGARCH (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run, and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long-run behaviour of electricity spot prices. Results show: positive time-varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity; a negative association between wind power penetration in Germany and electricity spot prices in the German and neighbouring markets; and, for most markets, a decreasing speed in mean reversion. -- Highlights: •Associations between spot prices and wind power are time-varying. •Greater spot price and volatility associations across markets are observed. •In the long run, the German market is less integrated with neighbouring markets. •Policies on a local electricity mix can affect spot prices in connected markets

Nucleon electric polarizability in soliton models and the role of the seagull terms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scoccola, N.N.; Cohen, T.D.

1996-01-01

The full Hamiltonian of the soliton models contains no electric seagull terms. Here it is shown that if one restricts the fields to the collective subspace then electric seagull terms are induced in the effective Hamiltonian. These effective seagull contributions are consistent with gauge invariance. They also reproduce the leading non-analytic behavior of a large N c chiral perturbation theory calculation of the electric polarizability. (orig.)

Failing electricity markets: should we shoot the pools?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, Richard

2003-01-01

This paper discusses the electricity reforms in California and in England and Wales. In both cases, a centralised spot market played a major role, and both markets have now been abolished. This paper argues that their disappearance is not evidence that future electricity restructuring should avoid the use of spot markets. Instead, the problems in England and Wales were largely due to market power. In California, problems arising from market power and a tightening demand-supply balance were turned into a disaster because the spot market had not been backed up by hedging contracts. (Author)

Electric Chern-Simons term, enlarged exotic Galilei symmetry and noncommutative plane

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olmo, Mariano A. del; Plyushchay, Mikhail S.

2006-01-01

The extended exotic planar model for a charged particle is constructed. It includes a Chern-Simons-like term for a dynamical electric field, but produces usual equations of motion for the particle in background constant uniform electric and magnetic fields. The electric Chern-Simons term is responsible for the noncommutativity of the boost generators in the 10-dimensional enlarged exotic Galilei symmetry algebra of the extended system. The model admits two reduction schemes by the integrals of motion, one of which reproduces the usual formulation for the charged particle in external constant electric and magnetic fields with associated field-deformed Galilei symmetry, whose commuting boost generators are identified with the nonlocal in time Noether charges reduced on-shell. Another reduction scheme, in which electric field transmutes into the commuting space translation generators, extracts from the model a free particle on the noncommutative plane described by the twofold centrally extended Galilei group of the nonrelativistic anyons

The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

Science.gov (United States)

Dugger, Catherine; Forsman, Eric D.; Franklin, Alan B.; Davis, Raymond J.; White, Gary C.; Schwarz, Carl J.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Doherty, Paul F.; Bailey, Larissa; Clark, Darren A.; Ackers, Steven H.; Andrews, Lawrence S.; Augustine, Benjamin; Biswell, Brian L.; Blakesley, Jennifer; Carlson, Peter C.; Clement, Matthew J.; Diller, Lowell V.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Green, Adam; Gremel, Scott A.; Herter, Dale R.; Higley, J. Mark; Hobson, Jeremy; Horn, Rob B.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; McCafferty, Christopher; McDonald, Trent; McDonnell, Kevin; Olson, Gail S.; Reid, Janice A.; Rockweit, Jeremy; Ruiz, Viviana; Saenz, Jessica; Sovern, Stan G.

2016-01-01

covariates. In contrast, meta-analysis results suggested that Spotted Owl survival was higher across all study areas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a warming phase and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative, with a strongly negative SOI indicative of El Niño events. The best model that included the Barred Owl covariate (BO) was ranked 4th and also included the PDO covariate, but the BO effect was strongly negative. Our results indicated that Northern Spotted Owl populations were declining throughout the range of the subspecies and that annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. We observed strong evidence that Barred Owls negatively affected Spotted Owl populations, primarily by decreasing apparent survival and increasing local territory extinction rates. However, the amount of suitable owl habitat, local weather, and regional climatic patterns also were related to survival, occupancy (via colonization rate), recruitment, and, to a lesser extent, fecundity, although there was inconsistency in regard to which covariates were important for particular demographic parameters or across study areas. In the study areas where habitat was an important source of variation for Spotted Owl demographics, vital rates were generally positively associated with a greater amount of suitable owl habitat. However, Barred Owl densities may now be high enough across the range of the Northern Spotted Owl that, despite the continued management and conservation of suitable owl habitat on federal lands, the long-term prognosis for the persistence of Northern Spotted Owls may be in question without additional management intervention. Based on our study, the removal of Barred Owls from the Green Diamond Resources (GDR) study area had rapid, positive effects on Northern Spotted Owl survival and the rate of population change, supporting the hypothesis that, along with habitat conservation and management, Barred Owl removal may be able to slow or reverse

Management of post-orthodontic white spot lesions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sonesson, Mikael; Bergstrand, Fredrik; Gizani, Sotiria

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The management of post-orthodontic white spot lesions is based on remineralization strategies or a minimal-invasive camouflage of the lesions. AIM: The aim of this systematic review was to identify and assess the quality of evidence for the various clinical technologies......-orthodontic white spot lesions. Further well-performed controlled clinical trials with long-term follow-up are needed to establish best clinical practice....

Long-term uncertainty evaluation of pool electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez Lopez, Juan; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy

2010-01-01

Pool electricity markets are cleared under the strong assumption of having a perfectly known future; in real life, this is anything but true. The inability to predict the random parameters of the supply and the demand function introduces risk into the market clearing process. Therefore, the main interest is to minimize such risk by means of a trade-off of the mean and the variance of the social cost function. This paper considers random variations on the levels and on the slopes of the quadratic supply and demand functions. Correlation is considered between the corresponding coefficients of the supply and demand curves. By means of the mean-variance Markowitz theory, the risk introduced by these random variations is analyzed. A comprehensive analysis on the effects that the mean-variance Markowitz theory has on the nodal spot prices and on the point-elasticities of the supply and demand curves is made. The non-linear optimization model presented in this paper is validated through a three-, a six-, and a 21-node system. (author)

Long-term uncertainty evaluation of pool electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alvarez Lopez, Juan [Network Analysis Department, Electric Research Institute (Mexico); Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy [Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. West, N2L 3G1, Waterloo, Ontario (Canada)

2010-02-15

Pool electricity markets are cleared under the strong assumption of having a perfectly known future; in real life, this is anything but true. The inability to predict the random parameters of the supply and the demand function introduces risk into the market clearing process. Therefore, the main interest is to minimize such risk by means of a trade-off of the mean and the variance of the social cost function. This paper considers random variations on the levels and on the slopes of the quadratic supply and demand functions. Correlation is considered between the corresponding coefficients of the supply and demand curves. By means of the mean-variance Markowitz theory, the risk introduced by these random variations is analyzed. A comprehensive analysis on the effects that the mean-variance Markowitz theory has on the nodal spot prices and on the point-elasticities of the supply and demand curves is made. The non-linear optimization model presented in this paper is validated through a three-, a six-, and a 21-node system. (author)

Long-term clinical evaluation of a 800-nm long-pulsed diode laser with a large spot size and vacuum-assisted suction for hair removal.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahimi, Omar A; Kilmer, Suzanne L

2012-06-01

The long-pulsed diode (800-810-nm) laser is one of the most commonly used and effective lasers for hair removal. Limitations of currently available devices include a small treatment spot size, treatment-associated pain, and the need for skin cooling. To evaluate the long-term hair reduction capabilities of a long-pulsed diode laser with a large spot size and vacuum assisted suction. Thirty-five subjects were enrolled in a prospective, self-controlled, single-center study of axillary hair removal. The study consisted of three treatments using a long-pulsed diode laser with a large spot size and vacuum-assisted suction at 4- to 6-week intervals with follow-up visits 6 and 15 months after the last treatment. Hair clearance was quantified using macro hair-count photographs taken at baseline and at 6- and 15-month follow-up visits. Changes in hair thickness and color, levels of treatment-associated pain, and adverse events were additional study endpoints. There was statistically significant hair clearance at the 6 (54%) and 15-month (42%) follow-up visits. Remaining hairs were thinner and lighter at the 15-month follow-up visit, and the majority of subjects reported feeling up to mild to moderate pain during treatment without the use of pretreatment anesthesia or skin cooling. A long-pulsed diode laser with a large spot size and vacuum-assisted suction is safe and effective for long-term hair removal. This is the largest prospective study to evaluate long-term hair removal and the first to quantify decreases in hair thickness and darkness with treatment. © 2012 by the American Society for Dermatologic Surgery, Inc. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Price signals and investment incentives in wholesale electricity spot markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vassilopoulos, Philippe

2007-01-01

We look at how prices from energy-only power markets can send the right signals and give the correct incentives for investments in production capacity. Through numerical simulations of spot prices over 2003-2005 we compare the investment signal sent by observed electricity prices in France and what would be competitive prices with an optimal mix and with the installed capacity. Observed prices tend to overestimate profitability for the base-load, making the signal too strong and underestimate profitability for the peak load, making the signal too weak. However, as a large share of consumers is still paying regulated tariffs, scarcity rents are capped. We simulate future prices for France for 2010 to 2020 to understand the incentives to invest. When the entry is free, the incentives to invest given by the future prices are consistent with the optimal mix including the interconnections and nuclear build is strong. With political or regulatory barriers to the construction of new power plants for new entrants (i.e. finding new sites), there are no incentives for the incumbent (that owns all existing base-load and peak load capacity) to add more nuclear capacity. In this situation, new entry would have to be coal or gas except if units are bid strategically to maintain profitability and market share. Moreover, it can also be profitable to limit prices and restrain entry in order to receive higher future revenues. When the base-load is less concentrated and instead of a dominant firm the nuclear capacity is divided into five (equal share) firms, the incentives to invest reappear and the threat of entry becomes more credible. (author) [fr

Do the seagull terms really survive for the electric polarizability of the nucleon?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saito, S.

1998-01-01

The seagull terms for the electric polarizability of the nucleon are shown indeed to vanish, if one introduces fluctuations around the Skyrmion configuration, and the origin of the electric polarizability cannot after all be attributed to the seagull terms in the Skyrme model. (orig.)

Gyrocenter Shift of Low-Temperature Plasmas and the Retrograde Motion of Cathode Spots in Arc Discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, K. C.

2007-01-01

The gyrocenter shift phenomenon explained the mechanism of radial electric field formation at the high confinement mode transition in fusion devices. This Letter reports that the theory of gyrocenter shift is also applicable to low temperature high collisional plasmas such as arc discharges by the generalization of the theory resulting from a short mean free path compared with the gyroradius. The retrograde motion of cathode spots in the arc discharge is investigated through a model with the expanded formula of gyrocenter shift. It is found that a reversed electric field is formed in front of the cathode spots when they are under a magnetic field, and this reversed electric field generates a rotation of cathode spots opposite to the Amperian direction. The ion drift velocity profiles calculated from the model are in agreement with the experimental results as functions of magnetic flux density and gas pressure

Liver spots

Science.gov (United States)

... skin changes - liver spots; Senile or solar lentigines; Skin spots - aging; Age spots ... Liver spots are changes in skin color that occur in older skin. The coloring may be due to aging, exposure to the sun ...

Near-term electric vehicle program: Phase I, final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rowlett, B. H.; Murry, R.

1977-08-01

A final report is given for an Energy Research and Development Administration effort aimed at a preliminary design of an energy-efficient electric commuter car. An electric-powered passenger vehicle using a regenerative power system was designed to meet the near-term ERDA electric automobile goals. The program objectives were to (1) study the parameters that affect vehicle performance, range, and cost; (2) design an entirely new electric vehicle that meets performance and economic requirements; and (3) define a program to develop this vehicle design for production in the early 1980's. The design and performance features of the preliminary (baseline) electric-powered passenger vehicle design are described, including the baseline power system, system performance, economic analysis, reliability and safety, alternate designs and options, development plan, and conclusions and recommendations. All aspects of the baseline design were defined in sufficient detail to verify performance expectations and system feasibility.

Medium-term energy hub management subject to electricity price and wind uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Najafi, Arsalan; Falaghi, Hamid; Contreras, Javier; Ramezani, Maryam

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A new model for medium-term energy hub management is proposed. • Risk aversion is considered in medium-term energy hub management. • Stochastic programing is used to solve the medium-term energy hub management problem. • Electricity price and wind uncertainty are considered. - Abstract: Energy hubs play an important role in implementing multi-carrier energy systems. More studies are required in both their modeling and operating aspects. In this regard, this paper attempts to develop medium-term management of an energy hub in restructured power systems. A model is presented to manage an energy hub which has electrical energy and natural gas as inputs and electrical and heat energy as outputs. Electricity is procured in various ways, either purchasing it from a pool-based market and bilateral contracts, or producing it from a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) unit, a diesel generator unit and Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs). Pool prices and wind turbine production are subject to uncertainty, which makes energy management a complex puzzle. Heat demand is also procured by a furnace and a CHP unit. Energy hub managers should make decisions whether to purchase electricity from the electricity market and gas from the gas network or to produce electricity using a set of generators to meet the electrical and heat demands in the presence of uncertainties. The energy management objective is to minimize the total cost subject to several technical constraints using stochastic programming. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a well-known risk measure, is used to reduce the unfavorable risk of costs. In doing so, the proposed model is illustrated using a sample test case with actual prices, load and wind speed data. The results show that the minimum cost is obtained by the best decisions involving the electricity market and purchasing natural gas for gas facilities. Considering risk also increases the total expected cost and decreases the CVaR.

Global long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gernaat, David E H J; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Van Vliet, Jasper; Sullivan, Patrick; Arent, Douglas J.

2014-01-01

Using the IMAGE/TIMER (The Targets IMage Energy Regional) long-term integrated assessment model, this paper explores the regional and global potential of offshore wind to contribute to global electricity production. We develop long-term cost supply curve for offshore wind, a representation of the

Price-signals and long term equilibrium. Reconsidering the organisation of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, Dominique; Defeuilley, Christophe; Marty, Frederic

2009-11-01

The purpose of this article is to show that the reform of the electricity sector, based on a framework of interpretation in which the short-term/long-term articulation is made by the market price, does not result in an efficient result in terms of investment. After a presentation of a bibliographical review on investment in an uncertain context, the authors present a model of decentralised electricity markets which backs reforms. They highlight issues related to production investment which remain unresolved, and which may result in socially inefficient choices on the long term. They report an analysis of two solutions of industrial organisations, long term contracts and vertical and horizontal integration, which could solve these problems

Essays on competition in electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Bustos Salvagno, Ricardo Javier

The first chapter shows how technology decisions affect entry in commodity markets with oligopolistic competition, like the electricity market. I demonstrate an entry deterrence effect that works through cost uncertainty. Technology's cost uncertainty affects spot market expected profits through forward market trades. Therefore, incentives to engage in forward trading shape firms' decisions on production technologies. I show that high-cost but low-risk technologies are adopted by risk-averse incumbents to deter entry. Strategic technology adoption can end in a equilibrium where high-cost technologies prevail over low-cost but riskier ones. In the case of incumbents who are less risk-averse than entrants, entry deterrence is achieved by choosing riskier technologies. The main results do not depend on who chooses their technology first. Chapter two examines the Chilean experience on auctions for long-term supply contracts in electricity markets from 2006 to 2011. Using a divisible-good auction model, I provide a theoretical framework that explains bidding behavior in terms of expected spot prices and contracting positions. The model is extended to include potential strategic behavior on contracting decisions. Empirical estimations confirm the main determinants of bidding behavior and show heterogeneity in the marginal cost of over-contracting depending on size and incumbency. Chapter three analyzes the lag in capacity expansion in the Chilean electricity market from 2000 to 2004. Regarded as a result of regulatory uncertainty, the role of delays in the construction of a large hydro-power plant has been overlooked by the literature. We argue that those delays postponed projected investment and gave small windows of opportunity that only incumbents could take advantage of. We are able to retrace the history of investments through real-time information from the regulator's reports and a simple model enables us to explain the effect of those delays on suggested and under

SpotADAPT

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaulakiene, Dalia; Thomsen, Christian; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2015-01-01

by Amazon Web Services (AWS). The users aiming for the spot market are presented with many instance types placed in multiple datacenters in the world, and thus it is difficult to choose the optimal deployment. In this paper, we propose the framework SpotADAPT (Spot-Aware (re-)Deployment of Analytical...... of typical analytical workloads and real spot price traces. SpotADAPT's suggested deployments are comparable to the theoretically optimal ones, and in particular, it shows good cost benefits for the budget optimization -- on average SpotADAPT is at most 0.3% more expensive than the theoretically optimal...

Volume dips; spot price ranges narrow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

This article is the September 1994 uranium market summary. Volume in the spot concentrates market fell below 1 million lbs U3O8. In total, twelve deals took place compared to 28 deals in August. Of the twelve deals, three took place in the spot concentrates market, two took place in the medium and long-term market, three in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. Restricted prices weakened, but unrestricted prices firmed slightly. The enrichment price range narrowed a bit

Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew J Kroll

Full Text Available Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina, California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia, an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33, in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07, in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17. Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06. However, we cannot exclude

Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

Science.gov (United States)

Kroll, Andrew J; Jones, Jay E; Stringer, Angela B; Meekins, Douglas J

2016-01-01

Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small

Simulation of demand side participation in Spanish short term electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valencia-Salazar, I.; Alvarez, C.; Escriva-Escriva, G.; Alcazar-Ortega, M.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Benefits from customer active participation can be obtained with a proper generation of bids and offers. → Simulation of Spanish customers' participation is shown in daily, intra-daily and balancing markets. → Market efficiency and economics profits arise in balancing markets by using customer load reductions. → Real market prices and real customers' consumptions profiles are used in the simulations. -- Abstract: Demand response resources management is one of the most investigated solutions oriented to improve the efficiency in electricity markets. In this paper, the capability of customers to participate in short term markets is analyzed. An available methodology to analyze the daily and monthly energy consumptions of large customers is used to create energy offers and bids. This allows customers to participate in energy markets in order to buy, as first step, the usual electricity consumption and, additionally, to offer demand reductions in the short term electricity markets. Additionally, this paper shows the customer potential to participate in the Spanish electricity markets.

Short run pricing in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ring, B. J.; Read, E. G.

1996-01-01

In response to the need for more responsive, competitive and decentralized pricing strategies forced upon the industry by deregulation, this study reviewed the type of electricity pricing required to coordinate a competitive wholesale electricity market over time periods typically of the order of one hour. It was found that nodal spot pricing can provide a straight-forward mechanism for providing the correct signals to market participants, while reflecting the costs and complexities of transmission network operation. Provided that all binding constraints are represented in the pricing model, and assuming that they are used in conjunction with long term contracts and capacity rights, such pricing can potentially deliver most of the benefits promised by perfect coordination, while allowing competition to flourish. 4 refs

Hot spot model of MagLIF implosions: Nernst term effect on magnetic flux losses

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia Rubio, Fernando; Sanz Recio, Javier; Betti, Riccardo

2016-10-01

An analytical model of a collisional plasma being compressed by a cylindrical liner is proposed and solved in a magnetized liner inertial fusion-like context. The implosion is assumed to be isobaric, and the magnetic diffusion is confined to a thin layer near the liner. Both unmagnetized and magnetized plasma cases are considered. The model reduces to a system of two partial differential equations for temperature and magnetic field. Special attention is given to the effect of the Nernst term on the evolution of the magnetic field. Scaling laws for temperature, magnetic field, hot spot mass increase and magnetic field losses are obtained. The temperature and magnetic field spatial profiles tend to a self-similar state. It is found that when the Nernst term is taken into account, the magnetic field is advected towards the liner, and the magnetic flux losses are independent of the magnetic Lewis number. Research supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Project No. ENE2014-54960R. Acknowledgements to the Laboratory of Laser Energetics (Rochester) for its hospitality.

Economic Dispatch of Hydrogen Systems in Energy Spot Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

You, Shi; Nørgård, Per Bromand

2015-01-01

of energy spot markets. The generic hydrogen system is comprised of an electrolysis for hydrogen production, a hydrogen storage tank and a fuel cell system for cogeneration of electricity and heat. A case study is presented with information from practical hydrogen systems and the Nordic energy markets...

Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucukali, Serhat; Baris, Kemal

2010-01-01

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning.

Electric vehicles and renewable energy in the transport sector - energy system consequences. Main focus: Battery electric vehicles and hydrogen based fuel cell vehicles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nielsen, L.H.; Joergensen, K.

2000-04-01

The aim of the project is to analyse energy, environmental and economic aspects of integrating electric vehicles in the future Danish energy system. Consequences of large-scale utilisation of electric vehicles are analysed. The aim is furthermore to illustrate the potential synergistic interplay between the utilisation of electric vehicles and large-scale utilisation of fluctuating renewable energy resources, such as wind power. Economic aspects for electric vehicles interacting with a liberalised electricity market are analysed. The project focuses on battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles based on hydrogen. Based on assumptions on the future technical development for battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles on hydrogen, and for the conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, scenarios are set up to reflect expected options for the long-term development of road transport vehicles. Focus is put on the Danish fleet of passenger cars and delivery vans. The scenario analysis includes assumptions on market potential developments and market penetration for the alternative vehicles. Vehicle replacement rates in the Danish transport fleet and the size of fleet development are based on data from The Danish Road Directorate. The electricity supply system development assumed is based on the Danish energy plan, Energy 21, The Plan scenario. The time horizon of the analysis is year 2030. Results from the scenario analysis include the time scales involved for the potential transition towards electricity based vehicles, the fleet composition development, the associated developments in transport fuel consumption and fuel substitution, and the potential CO{sub 2}-emission reduction achievable in the overall transport and power supply system. Detailed model simulations, on an hourly basis, have furthermore been carried out for year 2005 that address potential electricity purchase options for electric vehicles in the context of a liberalised electricity market

Electric vehicles and renewable energy in the transport sector - energy system consequences. Main focus: Battery electric vehicles and hydrogen based fuel cell vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, L.H.; Joergensen, K.

2000-04-01

The aim of the project is to analyse energy, environmental and economic aspects of integrating electric vehicles in the future Danish energy system. Consequences of large-scale utilisation of electric vehicles are analysed. The aim is furthermore to illustrate the potential synergistic interplay between the utilisation of electric vehicles and large-scale utilisation of fluctuating renewable energy resources, such as wind power. Economic aspects for electric vehicles interacting with a liberalised electricity market are analysed. The project focuses on battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles based on hydrogen. Based on assumptions on the future technical development for battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles on hydrogen, and for the conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, scenarios are set up to reflect expected options for the long-term development of road transport vehicles. Focus is put on the Danish fleet of passenger cars and delivery vans. The scenario analysis includes assumptions on market potential developments and market penetration for the alternative vehicles. Vehicle replacement rates in the Danish transport fleet and the size of fleet development are based on data from The Danish Road Directorate. The electricity supply system development assumed is based on the Danish energy plan, Energy 21, The Plan scenario. The time horizon of the analysis is year 2030. Results from the scenario analysis include the time scales involved for the potential transition towards electricity based vehicles, the fleet composition development, the associated developments in transport fuel consumption and fuel substitution, and the potential CO 2 -emission reduction achievable in the overall transport and power supply system. Detailed model simulations, on an hourly basis, have furthermore been carried out for year 2005 that address potential electricity purchase options for electric vehicles in the context of a liberalised electricity market. The

Effect of the small accessary laser spots on the harmonic emission stimulated by self-focusing of a 10-micrometer scale laser spot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin Zunqi; Zhang Huihuang; He Xingfa

1992-01-01

A novel group of experiments has shown that single 10-micrometer-radius-scale laser spot is not able to produce the 90 deg side emitted three half harmonic efficiently in a preformed laser plasmas. However, with the help of one or two accessory laser spots with the size similar to the main one, the side emitted three half can easily built up when some position and angle conditions for the accessory spots are fulfilled. The origin of these phenomena have been analyzed in terms of the two plasmon decay theory and dynamic self-focusing model

Plasma spot welding of ferritic stainless steels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lesnjak, A.; Tusek, J.

2002-01-01

Plasma spot wedding of ferritic stainless steels studied. The study was focused on welding parameters, plasma and shieldings and the optimum welding equipment. Plasma-spot welded overlap joints on a 0.8 mm thick ferritic stainless steel sheet were subjected to a visual examination and mechanical testing in terms of tension-shear strength. Several macro specimens were prepared Plasma spot welding is suitable to use the same gas as shielding gas and as plasma gas , i. e. a 98% Ar/2% H 2 gas mixture. Tension-shear strength of plasma-spot welded joint was compared to that of resistance sport welded joints. It was found that the resistance welded joints withstand a somewhat stronger load than the plasma welded joints due to a large weld sport diameter of the former. Strength of both types of welded joints is approximately the same. (Author) 32 refs

Research on spot power market equilibrium model considering the electric power network characteristics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Chengmin; Jiang, Chuanwen; Chen, Qiming

2007-01-01

Equilibrium is the optimum operational condition for the power market by economics rule. A realistic spot power market cannot achieve the equilibrium condition due to network losses and congestions. The impact of the network losses and congestion on spot power market is analyzed in this paper in order to establish a new equilibrium model considering the network loss and transmission constraints. The OPF problem formulated according to the new equilibrium model is solved by means of the equal price principle. A case study on the IEEE-30-bus system is provided in order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach. (author)

Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

2015-01-01

. The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poul Alberg Østergaard

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

Comparing the spot prices from Powernext and EEX

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galli, A.; Armstrong, M.

2005-01-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised exchange. Powernext started operating on 27 November 2001. Although the German exchange, EEX, has been functioning for much longer, the two have many common points. Both use the same system for fixing the day-ahead spot price, the one developed by NordPool. In contrast to Omel in Spain, power producers in France and Germany are not obliged to sell through the exchange. In addition, the cross-border transmission lines that physically link the French and German grids, not only make the electricity supply more reliable they also allow cross-border commercial transactions which should homogenize prices in both countries. So after nearly a year of operation it is interesting to compare the spot prices on the two exchanges in order to have a better understanding of the statistical properties of the prices in the two markets and the relationship between them. This information will be used when modelling the structure of the day-ahead spot prices. The data used to carry out the study consists of the (hourly) spot prices for electricity from Powernext and EEX, for the period from 1 January 2002 to 2 December 2002. Data from the first five weeks of trading were not included because traded volumes were relatively low initially and so these data are not necessarily representative. This report is divided into four sections. The first one presents the basic statistics, starting with the histograms of all the 8064 spot prices in the 336 days, for both exchanges. In time series data, it is usual to find three types of seasonality: daily, weekly and annual. As the available data cover less than one calendar year, it is too early to attempt to study annual trends. So we limit ourselves to studying daily and weekly fluctuations. Plotting the hourly average prices for each day of the week shows some interesting differences between Powernext and

European Short-term Electricity Market Designs under High Penetration of Wind Power

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chaves Avila, J.P.

2014-01-01

The EU has ambitious policies for decarbonization of the electricity sector. Due to recent technological developments, wind power already represents a significant share of the generation mix in some European countries. As a result, short-term electricity markets and balancing arrangements must be

How much extra spot gas is there?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bros, Th.

2007-01-01

With the increase of European gas demand and the sharp decrease of local supply, security of supply is becoming an ever greater issue. However, liberalization tilts the traditional equilibrium based on long term 'take or pay' contracts between big suppliers and national distribution companies. Today, buying gas on the spot market is becoming more and more important to balance supply portfolio with a fast moving market share. But the way gas spot markets are operating is not well documented. It is very difficult to assess its impact on the European security of supply. Therefore, the aim of this article is to evaluate the amount of 'spot' liquefied natural gas (LNG) that could be found in case of a major supply disruption in pipe gas delivered to Europe

Quantitation of 5-Methyltetrahydrofolic Acid in Dried Blood Spots and Dried Plasma Spots by Stable Isotope Dilution Assays.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markus Kopp

Full Text Available Because of minimal data available on folate analysis in dried matrix spots (DMSs, we combined the advantages of stable isotope dilution assays followed by LC-MS/MS analysis with DMS sampling to develop a reliable method for the quantitation of plasma 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid in dried blood spots (DBSs and dried plasma spots (DPSs as well as for the quantitation of whole blood 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid in DBSs. We focused on two diagnostically conclusive parameters exhibited by the plasma and whole blood 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid levels that reflect both temporary and long-term folate status. The method is performed using the [2H4]-labeled isotopologue of the vitamin as the internal standard, and three steps are required for the extraction procedure. Elution of the punched out matrix spots was performed using stabilization buffer including Triton X-100 in a standardized ultrasonication treatment followed by enzymatic digestion (whole blood only and solid-phase extraction with SAX cartridges. This method is sensitive enough to quantify 27 nmol/L whole blood 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid in DBSs and 6.3 and 4.4 nmol/L plasma 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid in DBSs and DPSs, respectively. The unprecedented accurate quantification of plasma 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid in DBSs was achieved by thermal treatment prior to ultrasonication, inhibiting plasma conjugase activity. Mass screenings are more feasible and easier to facilitate for this method in terms of sample collection and storage compared with conventional clinical sampling for the assessment of folate status.

Optimal Operation of Electric Vehicles in Competitive Electricity Markets and Its Impact on Distribution Power Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2011-01-01

represent the future of electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system in this paper. The impact of the optimal operation strategy for electric vehicles together with the optimal load response to spot market price on the distribution power system with high wind power penetrations...... are also discussed in the paper. Simulation results show that the proposed optimal operation strategy is an effective measure to achieve minimum energy costs of the PEV. The optimal operation strategy of the PEV and the optimal load response may have significant effects on the distribution power system......Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the electricity price could be transferred to the consumers and they may make some optimal charge and discharge schedules for their electric vehicles in order to minimize their energy costs. This paper presents an optimal...

Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K.; Horowitz, I.

2001-01-01

We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium

Short-term evolution and coexistence of spots, plages and flare activity on LQ Hydrae

Science.gov (United States)

Flores Soriano, M.; Strassmeier, K. G.

2017-01-01

Aims: We aim to study the short-term evolution of the chromospheric and photospheric activity of the young, single K2 dwarf LQ Hya. Methods: Four months of quasi-simultaneous spectroscopic and photometric observations were used to study the variations of the photometric light curve, the evolution of the chromospheric activity from the Hα and Hβ lines, and the distribution of cool spots from Doppler maps. Results: During our observations one side of the star was more active than the other. The equivalent width of the Hα line from the least active hemisphere increased from ≈0.7 Å at the beginning of the observation to 1.0 Å at the end. The basal emission of the most active hemisphere remained roughly constant at EWHαt1.0 Å. Intense flare activity was observed during the first twenty days, where at least four different events were detected. The line asymmetries of the Hα line suggest that one of the flares could have produced a mass ejection with a maximum projected speed of 70kms-1. The rotational modulation of the V-band photometry showed clear anti-correlation with the chromospheric activity. The difference in brightness between the opposite hemispheres decreased from 0.m16 to 0.m09 in two months. Three spots gradually moving apart from each other are dominating the photospheric Doppler maps. The comparison between the maps and the Hα line as the star rotates reveals the spatial coexistence of chromospheric Hα emission and photospheric spots. Conclusions: Our results indicate that the active regions of LQ Hya can live for at least four months. The detected changes in the photometric light curve and the spectroscopic Doppler images seem to be more a consequence of the spatial redistribution of the active regions rather than due to changes in their strength. Only one of the active regions shows significant changes in its chromospheric emission. Based on data obtained with the STELLA robotic telescope in Tenerife, an AIP facility jointly operated by AIP

Generation Companies’ Operative Strategies in the Spot Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tovar-Hernández J.H.

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In traditional regulation the obligation to meet the consumer demand was assumed, this guaranteed to generation companies the full recovery of their costs. However, in order to achieve greater efficiency, reduce the price of electricity, meet the continuously growing electricity consumption, and equalize prices in different regions, a new structure of the electricity industry has been created, where electric energy is traded through a market. Generation company’s future cash flows depend on day to day market participation, in order to satisfy all of their financial and economic requirements. In this paper, future cash flows required to fulfill with economic and financial commitments by a generation company immerse in this new market structure are studied. For this purpose, future cash flows are considered to be dependent on a single asset: electricity. Several scenarios with different fuel prices are generated in order to estimate the generation company’s future cash flows. The response of the competing generation companies is taken into account at each scenario. The fuel price changes are modelled using a concurrent binary tree.

Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federico Divina

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

Bier spots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahu Yorulmaz,

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Also called as physiologic anemic macules, Bier spots are small, hypopigmented irregularly shaped macules against a background of diffuse erythema, which creates an appearance of speckled vascular mottling of the skin. Bier spots most commonly appear on distal portions of the limbs though there are case reports describing diffuse involvement, which also affect trunk and mucous membranes of the patient. Although the exact pathophysiological mechanisms underlying Bier spots still need to be elucidated, Bier spots have been suggested to be a vascular anomaly caused by vasoconstriction of small vessels. In addition, several diseases have been proposed to be associated with Bier spots, including scleroderma renal crisis, cryoglobulinemia, Peutz-Jeghers syndrome, alopecia areata and hypoplasia of the aorta, although it has not been shown whether these associations are casual or coincidental. The clinical presentation of Bier spots is quite typical. These tiny whitish macules easily become prominent when the affected limb is placed in a dependent position and fade away when the limb is raised. Here we report a case of Bier spots in a 32-year-old male patient with characteristical clinical manifestations.

Modeling methods for GenCo bidding strategy optimization in the liberalized electricity spot market-A state-of-the-art review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Gong; Shi, Jing; Qu, Xiuli

2011-01-01

The electricity market has since 1980s been gradually evolving from a monopoly market into a liberalized one for encouraging competition and improving efficiency. This brings the opportunity for generation companies (GenCos) to make more profits while embracing more risks of not being dispatched. Therefore, it has become a core interest for the GenCos to develop optimal bidding strategies to maximize the profits and minimize the risks while participating in such a competitive market. The literature pertaining to this issue has grown rapidly in recent years, and many different modeling approaches, such as mathematical programming, game theory, and agent-based models, have been investigated under the liberalized market environment. Meanwhile, along with the increasing penetration of renewable energy, the electricity market is facing more complexity and stochasticity from both uncertain generation and dynamic demands. The intermittent and unsteady nature of these renewable power sources motivates the GenCos to further optimize their bidding strategy by considering the new constraints. This paper presents a comprehensive literature analysis on the state-of-the-art research of bidding strategy modeling methods. -- Highlights: → Publications on bidding in electricity spot markets are comprehensively reviewed. → Insights on the evolution of solution methodologies of recent 10 years are provided. → The pros and cons of these solution approaches are also discussed. → Future research directions, with renewable energy participations, are pointed out.

ESA uncovers Geminga's `hot spot'

Science.gov (United States)

2004-07-01

16 July 2004 Astronomers using ESA’s X-ray observatory XMM-Newton have detected a small, bright ‘hot spot’ on the surface of the neutron star called Geminga, 500 light-years away. The hot spot is the size of a football field and is caused by the same mechanism producing Geminga’s X-ray tails. This discovery identifies the missing link between the X-ray and gamma-ray emission from Geminga. hi-res Size hi-res: 1284 kb Credits: ESA, P. Caraveo (IASF, Milan) Geminga's hot spot This figure shows the effects of charged particles accelerated in the magnetosphere of Geminga. Panel (a) shows an image taken with the EPIC instrument on board the XMM-Newton observatory. The bright tails, made of particles kicked out by Geminga’s strong magnetic field, trail the neutron star as it moves about in space. Panel (b) shows how electrically charged particles interact with Geminga’s magnetic field. For example, if electrons (blue) are kicked out by the star, positrons (in red) hit the star’s magnetic poles like in an ‘own goal’. Panel (c) illustrates the size of Geminga’s magnetic field (blue) compared to that of the star itself at the centre (purple). The magnetic field is tilted with respect to Geminga’s rotation axis (red). Panel (d) shows the magnetic poles of Geminga, where charged particles hit the surface of the star, creating a two-million degrees hot spot, a region much hotter than the surroundings. As the star spins on its rotation axis, the hot spot comes into view and then disappears, causing the periodic colour change seen by XMM-Newton. An animated version of the entire sequence can be found at: Click here for animated GIF [low resolution, animated GIF, 5536 KB] Click here for AVI [high resolution, AVI with DIVX compression, 19128 KB] hi-res Size hi-res: 371 kb Credits: ESA, P. Caraveo (IASF, Milan) Geminga's hot spot, panel (a) Panel (a) shows an image taken with the EPIC instrument on board the XMM-Newton observatory. The bright tails, made of

Electricity and Man (Rev.)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Asimov, Isaac

1974-01-01

Our whole industrial civilization depends upon cheap energy streaking out in all directions and under fingertip controls—and that would be very difficult without electric current. It would take enormous ingenuity to find substitutes. If all electricity were shut off, then all electronic devices would be dead. Electric lights would darken. Aluminum would become a rare metal. All factories would have to develop power sources on the spot and would have to switch to primitive, mechanical controls. Every house and every farm would have to give up items we have come to take for granted—not only electric lights, but electric irons, electric toasters, electric water pumps, electric control of furnaces, and so on.

Flexibility and reliability in long-term planning exercises dedicated to the electricity sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maizi, Nadia; Drouineau, Mathilde; Assoumou, Edi; Mazauric, Vincent

2010-09-15

Long-term planning models are useful to build plausible options for future energy systems and must consequently address the technological feasibility and associated cost of these options. This paper focuses on the electricity sector and on problems of flexibility and reliability in power systems in order to improve results provided by long-term planning exercises: flexibility needs are integrated as an additional criterion for new investment decisions and, reliability requirements are assessed through the level of electrical losses they induced and a related cost. These approaches are implemented in a long-term planning model and demonstrated through a study of the Reunion Island.

PRICING ELECTRIC POWER UNDER A HYBRID WHOLESALE MECHANISM: EVALUATING THE TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hatice Karahan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available During the restructuring process, Turkish electricity sector has gone through significant changes both in wholesale and retail markets. In this framework, the Market Financial Settlement Mechanism established for handling market imbalances has become a spot market in time. So, it can be claimed that the wholesale electricity market in Turkey is a hybrid mechanism composed of bilateral contracts and the balancing market. On the other hand, the main target of liberalization program is providing consumers with affordable electric power. Hence, this study attempts to explore the link between retail tariffs for ineligible consumers and prices in the two wholesale mechanisms, in the period after the launch of the day-ahead market. Findings suggest that regulated wholesale prices are more effective in the determination of end-user prices, whereas unregulated ones might have a price reduction effect in case the free market dominates. However, the volatility in spot market prices implies that the sector would better continue with the hybrid mechanism for quite some time.

Gis-based procedures for hydropower potential spotting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larentis, Dante G.; Collischonn, Walter; Tucci, Carlos E.M. [Instituto de Pesquisas Hidraulicas da UFRGS, Av. Bento Goncalves, 9500, CEP 91501-970, Caixa Postal 15029, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil); Olivera, Francisco (Texas A and M University, Zachry Department of Civil Engineering 3136 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-3136, US)

2010-10-15

The increasing demand for energy, especially from renewable and sustainable sources, spurs the development of small hydropower plants and encourages investment in new survey studies. Preliminary hydropower survey studies usually carry huge uncertainties about the technical, economic and environmental feasibility of the undeveloped potential. This paper presents a methodology for large-scale survey of hydropower potential sites to be applied in the inception phase of hydroelectric development planning. The sequence of procedures to identify hydropower sites is based on remote sensing and regional streamflow data and was automated within a GIS-based computational program: Hydrospot. The program allows spotting more potential sites along the drainage network than it would be possible in a traditional survey study, providing different types of dam-powerhouse layouts and two types (operating modes) of projects: run-of-the-river and storage projects. Preliminary results from its applications in a hydropower-developed basin in Brazil have shown Hydrospot's limitations and potentialities in giving support to the mid-to-long-term planning of the electricity sector. (author)

Planning India's long-term energy shipment infrastructures for electricity and coal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowen, Brian H.; Canchi, Devendra; Lalit, Vishal Agarwal; Preckel, Paul V.; Sparrow, F.T.; Irwin, Marty W.

2010-01-01

The Purdue Long-Term Electricity Trading and Capacity Expansion Planning Model simultaneously optimizes both transmission and generation capacity expansions. Most commercial electricity system planning software is limited to only transmission planning. An application of the model to India's national power grid, for 2008-2028, indicates substantial transmission expansion is the cost-effective means of meeting the needs of the nation's growing economy. An electricity demand growth rate of 4% over the 20-year planning horizon requires more than a 50% increase in the Government's forecasted transmission capacity expansion, and 8% demand growth requires more than a six-fold increase in the planned transmission capacity expansion. The model minimizes the long-term expansion costs (operational and capital) for the nation's five existing regional power grids and suggests the need for large increases in load-carrying capability between them. Changes in coal policy affect both the location of new thermal power plants and the optimal pattern inter-regional transmission expansions.

Analysis and validation of laser spot weld-induced distortion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knorovsky, G.A.; Kanouff, M.P.; Maccallum, D.O.; Fuerschbach, P.W.

1999-12-09

Laser spot welding is an ideal process for joining small parts with tight tolerances on weld size, location, and distortion, particularly those with near-by heat sensitive features. It is also key to understanding the overlapping laser spot seam welding process. Rather than attempting to simulate the laser beam-to-part coupling (particularly if a keyhole occurs), it was measured by calorimetry. This data was then used to calculate the thermal and structural response of a laser spot welded SS304 disk using the finite element method. Five combinations of process parameter values were studied. Calculations were compared to experimental data for temperature and distortion profiles measured by thermocouples and surface profiling. Results are discussed in terms of experimental and modeling factors. The authors then suggest appropriate parameters for laser spot welding.

Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K. [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 353 Sacramento Street, Suite 1700, 94111 San Francisco, CA (United States); Horowitz, I. [Decision and Information Sciences, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida, 32611 Gainesville, FL (United States)

2001-01-01

We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium.

Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

2013-06-15

Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

2013-01-01

Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

Spot urine sodium excretion as prognostic marker in acutely decompensated heart failure: the spironolactone effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, João Pedro; Girerd, Nicolas; Medeiros, Pedro Bettencourt; Santos, Mário; Carvalho, Henrique Cyrne; Bettencourt, Paulo; Kénizou, David; Butler, Javed; Zannad, Faiez; Rossignol, Patrick

2016-06-01

Loop diuretic resistance characterized by inefficient sodium excretion complicates many patients with acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) in natriuretic doses may improve spot urine sodium excretion and outcomes. Our primary aim was to assess the association of high-dose spironolactone with short-term spot urine sodium excretion, and our secondary aim was to determine if this higher short-term spot urine sodium excretion is associated with reduction in the composite clinical outcome (of cardiovascular mortality and/or ADHF hospitalization) event rate at 180 days. Single-centre, non-randomized, open-label study enrolling 100 patients with ADHF. Patients were treated with standard ADHF therapy alone (n = 50) or oral spironolactone 100 mg/day plus standard ADHF therapy (n = 50). Spot urine samples were collected at day 1 and day 3 of hospitalization. Spironolactone group had significantly higher spot urine sodium levels compared to standard care group at day 3 (84.13 ± 28.71 mmol/L vs 70.74 ± 34.43 mmol/L, p = 0.04). The proportion of patients with spot urinary sodium spot urinary sodium and urinary sodium/potassium ratio of >2 at day 3 (both, p spot urine sodium levels were associated with a lower event rate [HR for urinary sodium >100 mmol/L = 0.16 (0.06-0.42), p Spot urinary sodium levels >60 mmol/L and urinary sodium/potassium ratio >2 measured at day 3 of hospitalization for ADHF are associated with improved mid-term outcomes. Spironolactone is associated with increased spot urinary sodium and sodium/potassium ratio >2.

SU-E-T-510: Interplay Between Spots Sizes, Spot / Line Spacing and Motion in Spot Scanning Proton Therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, TK

2015-01-01

Purpose In proton beam configuration for spot scanning proton therapy (SSPT), one can define the spacing between spots and lines of scanning as a ratio of given spot size. If the spacing increases, the number of spots decreases which can potentially decrease scan time, and so can whole treatment time, and vice versa. However, if the spacing is too large, the uniformity of scanned field decreases. Also, the field uniformity can be affected by motion during SSPT beam delivery. In the present study, the interplay between spot/ line spacing and motion is investigated. Methods We used four Gaussian-shape spot sizes with 0.5cm, 1.0cm, 1.5cm, and 2.0cm FWHM, three spot/line spacing that creates uniform field profile which are 1/3*FWHM, σ/3*FWHM and 2/3*FWHM, and three random motion amplitudes within, +/−0.3mm, +/−0.5mm, and +/−1.0mm. We planned with 2Gy uniform single layer of 10×10cm2 and 20×20cm2 fields. Then, mean dose within 80% area of given field size, contrubuting MU per each spot assuming 1cGy/MU calibration for all spot sizes, number of spots and uniformity were calculated. Results The plans with spot/line spacing equal to or smaller than 2/3*FWHM without motion create ∼100% uniformity. However, it was found that the uniformity decreases with increased spacing, and it is more pronounced with smaller spot sizes, but is not affected by scanned field sizes. Conclusion It was found that the motion during proton beam delivery can alter the dose uniformity and the amount of alteration changes with spot size which changes with energy and spot/line spacing. Currently, robust evaluation in TPS (e.g. Eclipse system) performs range uncertainty evaluation using isocenter shift and CT calibration error. Based on presented study, it is recommended to add interplay effect evaluation to robust evaluation process. For future study, the additional interplay between the energy layers and motion is expected to present volumetric effect

The economic benefit of short-term forecasting for wind energy in the UK electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barthelmie, R.J.; Murray, F.; Pryor, S.C.

2008-01-01

In the UK market, the total price of renewable electricity is made up of the Renewables Obligation Certificate and the price achieved for the electricity. Accurate forecasting improves the price if electricity is traded via the power exchange. In order to understand the size of wind farm for which short-term forecasting becomes economically viable, we develop a model for wind energy. Simulations were carried out for 2003 electricity prices for different forecast accuracies and strategies. The results indicate that it is possible to increase the price obtained by around pound 5/MWh which is about 14% of the electricity price in 2003 and about 6% of the total price. We show that the economic benefit of using short-term forecasting is also dependant on the accuracy and cost of purchasing the forecast. As the amount of wind energy requiring integration into the grid increases, short-term forecasting becomes more important to both wind farm owners and the transmission/distribution operators. (author)

Particle-wave discrimination in Poisson spot experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reisinger, T; Bracco, G; Holst, B

2011-01-01

Matter-wave interferometry has been used extensively over the last few years to demonstrate the quantum-mechanical wave nature of increasingly larger and more massive particles. We have recently suggested the use of the historical Poisson spot setup to test the diffraction properties of larger objects. In this paper, we present the results of a classical particle van der Waals (vdW) force model for a Poisson spot experimental setup and compare these to Fresnel diffraction calculations with a vdW phase term. We include the effect of disc-edge roughness in both models. Calculations are performed with D 2 and with C 70 using realistic parameters. We find that the sensitivity of the on-axis interference/focus spot to disc-edge roughness is very different in the two cases. We conclude that by measuring the intensity on the optical axis as a function of disc-edge roughness, it can be determined whether the objects behave as de Broglie waves or classical particles. The scaling of the Poisson spot experiment to larger molecular masses is, however, not as favorable as in the case of near-field light-grating-based interferometers. Instead, we discuss the possibility of studying the Casimir-Polder potential using the Poisson spot setup.

Performance of fuzzy approach in Malaysia short-term electricity load forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Mansor, Rosnalini; Zulkifli, Malina; Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Ismail, Mohd Isfahani; Ismail, Suzilah; Yin, Yip Chee

2014-12-01

Many activities such as economic, education and manafucturing would paralyse with limited supply of electricity but surplus contribute to high operating cost. Therefore electricity load forecasting is important in order to avoid shortage or excess. Previous finding showed festive celebration has effect on short-term electricity load forecasting. Being a multi culture country Malaysia has many major festive celebrations such as Eidul Fitri, Chinese New Year and Deepavali but they are moving holidays due to non-fixed dates on the Gregorian calendar. This study emphasis on the performance of fuzzy approach in forecasting electricity load when considering the presence of moving holidays. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was estimated using simulated data by including model simplification concept (manual or automatic), day types (weekdays or weekend), public holidays and lags of electricity load. The result indicated that day types, public holidays and several lags of electricity load were significant in the model. Overall, model simplification improves fuzzy performance due to less variables and rules.

Independent power and cogeneration in Ontario's new competitive electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnstable, A.G.

1999-01-01

The factors influencing the initial market pricing in the early years of Ontario's new electricity market were discussed with particular insight on the potential for near term development of independent power and cogeneration. The major factors influencing prices include: (1) no increase in retail prices, (2) financial restructuring of Ontario Hydro, (3) the Market Power Mitigation Agreement, (4) tighter power plant emissions standards, and (5) an electricity supply and demand balance. Generation competition is not expected to influence market pricing in the early years of the new electricity market. Prices will instead reflect the restructuring decisions of the Ontario government. The decision to have Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPGI) as a single generator for Ontario Hydro's generation assets will ensure that average spot market pricing in the early market years will be close to a 3.8 c/kWh revenue cap

Restructuring in Ontario : electricity sector reform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pospisil, S.

2004-01-01

Ontario's electricity reform strategy was outlined along with challenge facing Ontario's electricity supply and demand with particular focus on the issue of replacing coal-fired generation. According to reports by the Independent Electricity Market Operator, short-term reserve margins were higher in 2004 than they were in 2003 due to the return to service of some nuclear generating units and planned capacity additions. Ontario's long-term supply and demand situation was also examined. It was noted that lenders hesitate to finance the expansion of generation companies selling into the spot market. Many lenders are requiring that half of the project's output be sold in advance on contract. Other challenges include Ontario's aging generation infrastructure and rising energy prices. The presentation included graphs that compared electricity costs for residential and small business customers across various provinces and states. The main supply and conservation challenges revolve around the large investments required by 2020 to replace coal plants, retire nuclear plants and projected load growth. Ontario's current generation capacity is 154 TWh and the mix is represented by 40 per cent nuclear, 25 per cent coal, 25 per cent hydro, 8 per cent natural gas, 1 per cent oil, and 1 per cent biomass and other renewable energy sources. This paper also addressed the issue of coal generation and air pollution and emphasized the importance of looking at the broad externalities associated with air emissions. tabs., figs

Spot Welding Characterizations With Time Variable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdul Hafid; Pinitoyo, A.; History; Paidjo, Andryansyah; Sagino, Sudarmin; Tamzil, M.

2001-01-01

For obtain spot welding used effective data, this research is made, so that time operational of machine increasing. Welding parameters are material classification, electrical current, and weld time. All of the factors are determined welding quality. If the plate more thick, the time must be longer when the current constant. Another factor as determined welding quality are surface condition of electrode, surface condition of weld material, and material classifications. In this research, the weld machine type IP32A2 VI (110 V), Rivoira trademark is characterized

The current situation and mid-term prospects for European electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helm, Dieter

2013-01-01

This analysis of the current situation and mid-term prospects for European electricity markets presents: the objectives of energy policy, the historical legacy, the attempts at European integration and the Internal Energy Market (IEM), the coming of the Climate Change Package, the impact of the world economic and Euro-zone crises, the impact of shale gas and the new world of fossil fuel abundance, the impact of renewables on emissions, the impact of renewables on electricity markets, the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) and the renewables and the electricity markets, the coming of capacity crunch in some cases, the capacity markets, the return of central buyers and national energy policies, and what is to be done for the world electricity markets

Short-Term Load Forecast in Electric Energy System in Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Asenova

2010-01-01

Full Text Available As the accuracy of the electricity load forecast is crucial in providing better cost effective risk management plans, this paper proposes a Short Term Electricity Load Forecast (STLF model with high forecasting accuracy. Two kind of neural networks, Multilayer Perceptron network model and Radial Basis Function network model, are presented and compared using the mean absolute percentage error. The data used in the models are electricity load historical data. Even though the very good performance of the used model for the load data, weather parameters, especially the temperature, take important part for the energy predicting which is taken into account in this paper. A comparative evaluation between a traditional statistical method and artificial neural networks is presented.

Ion distribution in the hot spot of an inertial confinement fusion plasma

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Xianzhu; Guo, Zehua; Berk, Herb

2012-10-01

Maximizing the fusion gain of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) for inertial fusion energy (IFE) applications leads to the standard scenario of central hot spot ignition followed by propagating burn wave through the cold/dense assembled fuel. The fact that the hot spot is surrounded by cold but dense fuel layer introduces subtle plasma physics which requires a kinetic description. Here we perform Fokker-Planck calculations and kinetic PIC simulations for an ICF plasma initially in pressure balance but having large temperature gradient over a narrow transition layer. The loss of the fast ion tail from the hot spot, which is important for fusion reactivity, is quantified by Fokker-Planck models. The role of electron energy transport and the ambipolar electric field is investigated via kinetic simulations and the fluid moment models. The net effect on both hot spot ion temperature and the ion tail distribution, and hence the fusion reactivity, is elucidated.

Electric power from near-term fusion reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Longhurst, G.R.; Deis, G.A.; Miller, L.G.

1981-01-01

This paper examines requirements and possbilities of electric power production on near-term fusion reactors using low temperature cycle technology similar to that used in some geothermal power systems. Requirements include the need for a working fluid with suitable thermodynamics properties and which is free of oxygen and hydrogen to facilitate tritium management. Thermal storage will also be required due to the short system thermal time constants on near-time reactors. It is possbile to use the FED shield in a binary power cycle, and results are presented of thermodynamic analyses of this system

Electric vehicles and India's low carbon passenger transport: A long-term co-benefits assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal; Shukla, Priyadarshi

2017-01-01

Electric vehicles have attracted the attention of India's policy makers as clean technology alternatives due to their multiple advantages like higher efficiency and lower air pollution in short to medium term and reduced CO2 emissions as electricity gets decarbonized in the long-run under low......) are related to sourcing of raw materials for batteries and battery reprocessing and disposal. The findings show that: i) in the reference scenario, the EVs 2-wheelers will achieve a significant share by 2050. Electric 4-wheelers though would have a small share even in 2050; ii) EV push policies though lead...... to significant diffusion of electric 2- wheelers in India by 2030. These policies enhance diffusion of electric 4-wheelers only if financial incentives are sustained in the long-term, iii) the application of global carbon price on the Indian economy in the 2° C stabilization scenario increases competitiveness...

Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

2006-01-01

In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

Transitional–turbulent spots and turbulent–turbulent spots in boundary layers

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xiaohua; Moin, Parviz; Wallace, James M.; Skarda, Jinhie; Lozano-Durán, Adrián; Hickey, Jean-Pierre

2017-01-01

Two observations drawn from a thoroughly validated direct numerical simulation of the canonical spatially developing, zero-pressure gradient, smooth, flat-plate boundary layer are presented here. The first is that, for bypass transition in the narrow sense defined herein, we found that the transitional–turbulent spot inception mechanism is analogous to the secondary instability of boundary-layer natural transition, namely a spanwise vortex filament becomes a Λ vortex and then, a hairpin packet. Long streak meandering does occur but usually when a streak is infected by a nearby existing transitional–turbulent spot. Streak waviness and breakdown are, therefore, not the mechanisms for the inception of transitional–turbulent spots found here. Rather, they only facilitate the growth and spreading of existing transitional–turbulent spots. The second observation is the discovery, in the inner layer of the developed turbulent boundary layer, of what we call turbulent–turbulent spots. These turbulent–turbulent spots are dense concentrations of small-scale vortices with high swirling strength originating from hairpin packets. Although structurally quite similar to the transitional–turbulent spots, these turbulent–turbulent spots are generated locally in the fully turbulent environment, and they are persistent with a systematic variation of detection threshold level. They exert indentation, segmentation, and termination on the viscous sublayer streaks, and they coincide with local concentrations of high levels of Reynolds shear stress, enstrophy, and temperature fluctuations. The sublayer streaks seem to be passive and are often simply the rims of the indentation pockets arising from the turbulent–turbulent spots. PMID:28630304

Transitional-turbulent spots and turbulent-turbulent spots in boundary layers.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xiaohua; Moin, Parviz; Wallace, James M; Skarda, Jinhie; Lozano-Durán, Adrián; Hickey, Jean-Pierre

2017-07-03

Two observations drawn from a thoroughly validated direct numerical simulation of the canonical spatially developing, zero-pressure gradient, smooth, flat-plate boundary layer are presented here. The first is that, for bypass transition in the narrow sense defined herein, we found that the transitional-turbulent spot inception mechanism is analogous to the secondary instability of boundary-layer natural transition, namely a spanwise vortex filament becomes a [Formula: see text] vortex and then, a hairpin packet. Long streak meandering does occur but usually when a streak is infected by a nearby existing transitional-turbulent spot. Streak waviness and breakdown are, therefore, not the mechanisms for the inception of transitional-turbulent spots found here. Rather, they only facilitate the growth and spreading of existing transitional-turbulent spots. The second observation is the discovery, in the inner layer of the developed turbulent boundary layer, of what we call turbulent-turbulent spots. These turbulent-turbulent spots are dense concentrations of small-scale vortices with high swirling strength originating from hairpin packets. Although structurally quite similar to the transitional-turbulent spots, these turbulent-turbulent spots are generated locally in the fully turbulent environment, and they are persistent with a systematic variation of detection threshold level. They exert indentation, segmentation, and termination on the viscous sublayer streaks, and they coincide with local concentrations of high levels of Reynolds shear stress, enstrophy, and temperature fluctuations. The sublayer streaks seem to be passive and are often simply the rims of the indentation pockets arising from the turbulent-turbulent spots.

Spot market activity remains weak as prices continue to fall

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in November 1996 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers. Spot market activity increased in November with just over 1.0 million lbs of U3O8 equivalent being transacted compared to October's total of 530,000 lbs of U3O8 equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range slipped from $15.50-$15.70/lb U3O8 last month to $14.85/lb - $15.25/lb U3O8 this month. The unrestricted uranium spot market price range also slipped to $14.85/lb - $15.00/lb this month from $15.00/lb - $15.45/lb in October. Spot prices for conversion and separative work units remained at their October levels

Mid-Term Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting with Sparse Data: A Case in Newly-Reformed Yunnan Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuntian Cheng

2016-10-01

Full Text Available For the power systems, for which few data are available for mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP forecasting at the early stage of market reform, a novel grey prediction model (defined as interval GM(0, N model is proposed in this paper. Over the traditional GM(0, N model, three major improvements of the proposed model are: (i the lower and upper bounds are firstly identified to give an interval estimation of the forecasting value; (ii a novel whitenization method is then established to determine the definite forecasting value from the forecasting interval; and (iii the model parameters are identified by an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO instead of the least square method (LSM for the limitation of LSM. Finally, a newly-reformed electricity market in Yunnan province of China is studied, and input variables are contrapuntally selected. The accuracy of the proposed model is validated by observed data. Compared with the multiple linear regression (MLR model, the traditional GM(0, N model and the artificial neural network (ANN model, the proposed model gives a better performance and its superiority is further ensured by the use of the modified Diebold–Mariano (MDM test, suggesting that it is suitable for mid-term electricity MCP forecasting in a data-sparse electricity market.

Answer to the dynamic (fretting effect) and static (oxide) behavior of electric contact surfaces: based on a five-year infrared thermographic study

Science.gov (United States)

Paez-Leon, Cristobal D.; Patino, Antonio R.; Aguillon, Luis

1991-03-01

This paper describes the results of a five-year study carried out in 38 power substations (230, 115, 34.5 and 13.8 Kv), located in the Western power electric system of CADAFE (Venezuela's national Electric Utility). A total of 154 hot spots were found between 1980 and 1982, a time span considered a reliable source of information in connection with methodology, term and results. The distribution of hot spots found during those years was 77, 33 and 44. The reduction of the spot/substation parameter was found to be 4.1, 3.3 and 3.1, respectively. Every item detected could have been the cause of major interruptions, locally and regionally, or even the system's blackout. The methodology used to determine the major concentration of findings and their location on the equipment, followed the sequence of Pareto's Diagram and Ishikawa's Graphic. Based on the results of the study whose results are presented here, a lubricant and compound-aid connector for Al-Al and bimetallic electric connections was formulated, developed, manufactured, tested (at IREQ laboratories) and traded (CONECTECH CAC- 01). To date, the whole process represents 12 years of work. The connector's behavior and reliability are being tested throughout Venezuela's national electric system (responsible for the supply of around 50,000 Gwh/year) with the use of 12 Tons of CONECTECH CAC-01.

Short-term occupancy and abundance dynamics of the Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) across its core range

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Mccreary, Brome; Galvan, Stephanie

2014-01-01

The Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) occupies only a fraction of its original range and is listed as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act. We surveyed 93 sites in a rotating frame design (2010–13) in the Klamath and Deschutes Basins, Oregon, which encompass most of the species’ core extant range. Oregon spotted frogs are declining in abundance and probability of site occupancy. We did not find an association between the probability that Oregon spotted frogs disappear from a site (local extinction) and any of the variables hypothesized to affect Oregon spotted frog occupancy. This 4-year study provides baseline data, but the 4-year period was too short to draw firm conclusions. Further study is essential to understand how habitat changes and management practices relate to the status and trends of this species.

Markets in real electric networks require reactive prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogan, W.W.

1996-01-01

Extending earlier seminal work, the author finds that locational spot price differences in an electric network provide the natural measure of the appropriate internodal transport charge. However, the problem of loop flow requires different economic intuition for interpreting the implications of spot pricing. The Direct Current model, which is the usual approximation for estimating spot prices, ignores reactive power effects; this approximation is best when thermal constraints create network congestion. However, when voltage constraints are problematic, the DC Load model is insufficient; a full AC Model is required to determine both real and reactive spot prices. 16 figs., 3 tabs., 22 refs

Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kucukali, Serhat [Civil Engineering Department, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Incivez 67100, Zonguldak (Turkey); Baris, Kemal [Mining Engineering Department, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Incivez 67100, Zonguldak (Turkey)

2010-05-15

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning. (author)

Spotted inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuda, Tomohiro

2010-01-01

We describe new scenarios for generating curvature perturbations when inflaton (curvaton) has significant interactions. We consider a ''spot'', which arises from interactions associated with an enhanced symmetric point (ESP) on the trajectory. Our first example uses the spot to induce a gap in the field equation. We observe that the gap in the field equation may cause generation of curvature perturbation if it does not appear simultaneous in space. The mechanism is similar to the scenario of inhomogeneous phase transition. Then we observe that the spot interactions may initiate warm inflation in the cold Universe. Creation of cosmological perturbation is discussed in relation to the inflaton dynamics and the modulation associated with the spot interactions

Transition Heat Transfer Modeling Based on the Characteristics of Turbulent Spots

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Fred; Boyle, Robert

1998-01-01

While turbulence models are being developed which show promise for simulating the transition region on a turbine blade or vane, it is believed that the best approach with the greatest potential for practical use is the use of models which incorporate the physics of turbulent spots present in the transition region. This type of modeling results in the prediction of transition region intermittency which when incorporated in turbulence models give a good to excellent prediction of the transition region heat transfer. Some models are presented which show how turbulent spot characteristics and behavior can be employed to predict the effect of pressure gradient and Mach number on the transition region. The models predict the spot formation rate which is needed, in addition to the transition onset location, in the Narasimha concentrated breakdown intermittency equation. A simplified approach is taken for modeling turbulent spot growth and interaction in the transition region which utilizes the turbulent spot variables governing transition length and spot generation rate. The models are expressed in terms of spot spreading angle, dimensionless spot velocity, dimensionless spot area, disturbance frequency and Mach number. The models are used in conjunction with a computer code to predict the effects of pressure gradient and Mach number on the transition region and compared with VKI experimental turbine data.

Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

Spot Weight Adaptation for Moving Target in Spot Scanning Proton Therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Morel, Paul; Wu, Xiaodong; Blin, Guillaume; Vialette, Stéphane; Flynn, Ryan; Hyer, Daniel; Wang, Dongxu

2015-01-01

This study describes a real-time spot weight adaptation method in spot-scanning proton therapy for moving target or moving patient, so that the resultant dose distribution closely matches the planned dose distribution. The method proposed in this study adapts the weight (MU) of the delivering pencil beam to that of the target spot; it will actually hit during patient/target motion. The target spot that a certain delivering pencil beam may hit relies on patient monitoring and/or motion modeling using four-dimensional (4D) CT. After the adapted delivery, the required total weight [Monitor Unit (MU)] for this target spot is then subtracted from the planned value. With continuous patient motion and continuous spot scanning, the planned doses to all target spots will eventually be all fulfilled. In a proof-of-principle test, a lung case was presented with realistic temporal and motion parameters; the resultant dose distribution using spot weight adaptation was compared to that without using this method. The impact of the real-time patient/target position tracking or prediction was also investigated. For moderate motion (i.e., mean amplitude 0.5 cm), D95% to the planning target volume (PTV) was only 81.5% of the prescription (RX) dose; with spot weight adaptation PTV D95% achieves 97.7% RX. For large motion amplitude (i.e., 1.5 cm), without spot weight adaptation PTV D95% is only 42.9% of RX; with spot weight adaptation, PTV D95% achieves 97.7% RX. Larger errors in patient/target position tracking or prediction led to worse final target coverage; an error of 3 mm or smaller in patient/target position tracking is preferred. The proposed spot weight adaptation method was able to deliver the planned dose distribution and maintain target coverage when patient motion was involved. The successful implementation of this method would rely on accurate monitoring or prediction of patient/target motion.

Spot Weight Adaptation for Moving Target in Spot Scanning Proton Therapy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul eMorel

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This study describes a real-time spot weight adaptation method in spot-scanning proton therapy for moving target or moving patient, so that the resultant dose distribution closely matches the planned dose distribution. Materials and Methods: The method proposed in this study adapts the weight (MU of the delivering pencil beam to that of the target spot it will actually hit during patient/target motion. The target spot a certain delivering pencil beam may hit relies on patient monitoring and/or motion modeling using four-dimensional (4D CT. After the adapted delivery, the required total weight (MU for this target spot is then subtracted from the planned value. With continuous patient motion and continuous spot scanning, the planned doses to all target spots will eventually be all fulfilled. In a proof-of-principle test, a lung case was presented with realistic temporal and motion parameters; the resultant dose distribution using spot weight adaptation was compared to that without using this method. The impact of the real-time patient/target position tracking or prediction was also investigated.Results: For moderate motion (i.e., mean amplitude 0.5 cm, D95% to the planning target volume (PTV was only 81.5% of the prescription (RX dose; with spot weight adaptation PTV D95% achieves 97.7%RX. For large motion amplitude (i.e., 1.5 cm, without spot weight adaptation PTV D95% is only 42.9% of RX; with spot weight adaptation, PTV D95% achieves 97.7%RX. Larger errors in patient/target position tracking or prediction led to worse final target coverage; an error of 3mm or smaller in patient/target position tracking is preferred. Conclusion: The proposed spot weight adaptation method was able to deliver the planned dose distribution and maintain target coverage when patient motion was involved. The successful implementation of this method would rely on accurate monitoring or prediction of patient/target motion.

Bier spots

OpenAIRE

Ahu Yorulmaz,; Seray Kulcu Cakmak; Esra Ar?; Ferda Artuz

2015-01-01

Also called as physiologic anemic macules, Bier spots are small, hypopigmented irregularly shaped macules against a background of diffuse erythema, which creates an appearance of speckled vascular mottling of the skin. Bier spots most commonly appear on distal portions of the limbs though there are case reports describing diffuse involvement, which also affect trunk and mucous membranes of the patient. Although the exact pathophysiological mechanisms underlying Bier spots still need to be elu...

SMART II : the spot market agent research tool version 2.0.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

North, M. J. N.

2000-12-14

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has worked closely with Western Area Power Administration (Western) over many years to develop a variety of electric power marketing and transmission system models that are being used for ongoing system planning and operation as well as analytic studies. Western markets and delivers reliable, cost-based electric power from 56 power plants to millions of consumers in 15 states. The Spot Market Agent Research Tool Version 2.0 (SMART II) is an investigative system that partially implements some important components of several existing ANL linear programming models, including some used by Western. SMART II does not implement a complete model of the Western utility system but it does include several salient features of this network for exploratory purposes. SMART II uses a Swarm agent-based framework. SMART II agents model bulk electric power transaction dynamics with recognition for marginal costs as well as transmission and generation constraints. SMART II uses a sparse graph of nodes and links to model the electric power spot market. The nodes represent power generators and consumers with distinct marginal decision curves and varying investment capital as well individual learning parameters. The links represent transmission lines with individual capacities taken from a range of central distribution, outlying distribution and feeder line types. The application of SMART II to electric power systems studies has produced useful results different from those often found using more traditional techniques. Use of the advanced features offered by the Swarm modeling environment simplified the creation of the SMART II model.

Electric system management through hydrogen production - A market driven approach in the French context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mansilla, C.; Dautremont, S.; Thais, F.; Louyrette, J.; Martin, J.; Albou, S.; Barbieri, G.; Collignon, N.; Bourasseau, C.; Salasc, B.; Valentin, S.

2012-01-01

Hydrogen is usually presented as a promising energy carrier that has a major role to play in low carbon transportation, through the use of fuel cells. However, such a development is not expected in the short term. In the meantime, hydrogen may also contribute to reduce carbon emissions in diverse sectors among which methanol production. Methanol can be produced by combining carbon dioxide and hydrogen, hence facilitating carbon dioxide emission mitigation while providing a beneficial tool to manage the electric system, if hydrogen is produced by alkaline electrolysis operated in a variable way driven by the spot and balancing electricity markets. Such a concept is promoted by the VItESSE project (Industrial and Energy value of CO 2 through Efficient use of CO 2 -free electricity - Electricity Network System Control and Electricity Storage). Through the proposed market driven approach, hydrogen production offers a possibility to help managing the electric system, together with an opportunity to reduce hydrogen production costs. (authors)

Modelling the benchmark spot curve for the Serbian

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Drenovak Mikica

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to estimate Serbian benchmark spot curves using the Svensson parametric model. The main challenges that we tackle are: sparse data, different currency denominations of short and longer term maturities, and infrequent transactions in the short-term market segment vs daily traded medium and long-term market segment. We find that the model is flexible enough to account for most of the data variability. The model parameters are interpreted in economic terms.

Spot weld arrangement effects on the fatigue behavior of multi-spot welded joints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassanifard, Soran; Zehsaz, Mohammad; Esmaeili, Firooz

2011-01-01

In the present study, the effects of spot weld arrangements in multi-spot welded joints on the fatigue behavior of the joints are studied. Three different four-spot welded joints are considered: one-row four-spot parallel to the loading direction, one-row four-spot perpendicular to the loading direction and two-row four-spot weld specimens. The experimental fatigue test results reveal that the differences between the fatigue lives of three spot welded types in the low cycle regime are more considerable than those in the high cycle regime. However, all kinds of spot weld specimens have similar fatigue strength when approaching a million cycles. A non-linear finite element analysis is performed to obtain the relative stress gradients, effective distances and notch strength reduction factors based on the volumetric approach. The work here shows that the volumetric approach does a very good job in predicting the fatigue life of the multi-spot welded joints

A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rubin, Ofir D., E-mail: rubino@agri.huji.ac.i [Department of Agricultural Economics and Management, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, P.O. Box 12, Rehovot 76100 (Israel); Babcock, Bruce A., E-mail: babcock@iastate.ed [Department of Economics, Iowa State University, 578F Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States); Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States)

2011-05-15

The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: {yields} The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. {yields} Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. {yields} Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. {yields} It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. {yields} Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rubin, Ofir D.; Babcock, Bruce A.

2011-01-01

The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: → The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. → Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. → Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. → It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. → Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siddiqui, Afzal S.

2003-05-01

The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paraschiv, Florentina; Erni, David; Pietsch, Ralf

2014-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the impact of renewable energies, wind and photovoltaic, on the formation of day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. We give an overview of the policy decisions concerning the promotion of renewable energy sources in Germany and discuss their consequences on day-ahead prices. An analysis of electricity spot prices reveals that the introduction of renewable energies enhances extreme price changes. In the frame of a dynamic fundamental model, we show that there has been a continuous electricity price adaption process to market fundamentals. Furthermore, the fundamental drivers of prices differ among hours with different load profiles. Our results imply that renewable energies decrease market spot prices and have implications on the traditional fuel mix for electricity production. However, the prices for the final consumers increased overall because they must pay in addition the feed-in tariffs for the promotion of renewable energy. - Highlights: • We analyze the impact of renewable energies on the day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. • We discuss the impact of renewables on day-ahead prices. • We show a continuous electricity price adaption process to market fundamentals. • Renewable energies decrease market spot prices and shift the merit order curve. • The prices for the final consumers however increased because of feed-in tariffs

Energy is not Coffee. An assessment of blind spots on energy spot-markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jepma, C.J.; Spijker, E.; Van der Gaast, W.; De Jong, F.; Overmars, P.

2006-01-01

This study was to be the first in a series of studies on the title subject. It specifically focuses on the differences and similarities with a number of other spot-markets and aims to frame the energy spot markets and their potential development into a broader perspective. Main conclusion is that energy spot-markets differ from several other physical and non-physical spot-markets in many ways. This implies that 'perfect' energy spot-markets may inherently be (much) less perfect than other spot-markets that have approximated the stage of theoretical perfection

Short-term electric load forecasting using computational intelligence methods

OpenAIRE

Jurado, Sergio; Peralta, J.; Nebot, Àngela; Mugica, Francisco; Cortez, Paulo

2013-01-01

Accurate time series forecasting is a key issue to support individual and organizational decision making. In this paper, we introduce several methods for short-term electric load forecasting. All the presented methods stem from computational intelligence techniques: Random Forest, Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks, Evolutionary Support Vector Machines and Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning. The performance of the suggested methods is experimentally justified with several experiments carried out...

Long-term memory in electricity prices: Czech market evidence

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Krištoufek, Ladislav; Luňáčková, P.

2013-01-01

Roč. 63, č. 5 (2013), s. 407-424 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : electricity * long-term memory Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.358, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0427660.pdf

Hybrid ARIMAX quantile regression method for forecasting short term electricity consumption in east java

Science.gov (United States)

Prastuti, M.; Suhartono; Salehah, NA

2018-04-01

The need for energy supply, especially for electricity in Indonesia has been increasing in the last past years. Furthermore, the high electricity usage by people at different times leads to the occurrence of heteroscedasticity issue. Estimate the electricity supply that could fulfilled the community’s need is very important, but the heteroscedasticity issue often made electricity forecasting hard to be done. An accurate forecast of electricity consumptions is one of the key challenges for energy provider to make better resources and service planning and also take control actions in order to balance the electricity supply and demand for community. In this paper, hybrid ARIMAX Quantile Regression (ARIMAX-QR) approach was proposed to predict the short-term electricity consumption in East Java. This method will also be compared to time series regression using RMSE, MAPE, and MdAPE criteria. The data used in this research was the electricity consumption per half-an-hour data during the period of September 2015 to April 2016. The results show that the proposed approach can be a competitive alternative to forecast short-term electricity in East Java. ARIMAX-QR using lag values and dummy variables as predictors yield more accurate prediction in both in-sample and out-sample data. Moreover, both time series regression and ARIMAX-QR methods with addition of lag values as predictor could capture accurately the patterns in the data. Hence, it produces better predictions compared to the models that not use additional lag variables.

Demographic response of northern spotted owls to barred owl removal

Science.gov (United States)

Diller, V. Lowell; Hamm, Keith A; Early, Desiree A; Lamphear, David W; Dugger, Katie M.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Schwarz, Carl J.; Carlson, Peter C.; McDonald, Trent L.

2016-01-01

Federally listed as threatened in 1990 primarily because of habitat loss, the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) has continued to decline despite conservation efforts resulting in forested habitat being reserved throughout its range. Recently, there is growing evidence the congeneric invasive barred owl (Strix varia) may be responsible for the continued decline primarily by excluding spotted owls from their preferred habitat. We used a long-term demographic study for spotted owls in coastal northern California as the basis for a pilot barred owl removal experiment. Our demography study used capture–recapture, reproductive output, and territory occupancy data collected from 1990 to 2013 to evaluate trends in vital rates and populations. We used a classic before-after-control-impact (BACI) experimental design to investigate the demographic response of northern spotted owls to the lethal removal of barred owls. According to the best 2-species dynamic occupancy model, there was no evidence of differences in barred or northern spotted owl occupancy prior to the initiation of the treatment (barred owl removal). After treatment, barred owl occupancy was lower in the treated relative to the untreated areas and spotted owl occupancy was higher relative to the untreated areas. Barred owl removal decreased spotted owl territory extinction rates but did not affect territory colonization rates. As a result, spotted owl occupancy increased in the treated area and continued to decline in the untreated areas. Prior to and after barred owl removal, there was no evidence that average fecundity differed on the 2 study areas. However, the greater number of occupied spotted owl sites on the treated areas resulted in greater productivity in the treated areas based on empirical counts of fledged young. Prior to removal, survival was declining at a rate of approximately 0.2% per year for treated and untreated areas. Following treatment, estimated survival was 0.859 for

Modelling the long-term deployment of electricity storage in the global energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Despres, Jacques

2015-01-01

The current development of wind and solar power sources calls for an improvement of long-term energy models. Indeed, high shares of variable wind and solar productions have short- and long-term impacts on the power system, requiring the development of flexibility options: fast-reacting power plants, demand response, grid enhancement or electricity storage. Our first main contribution is the modelling of electricity storage and grid expansion in the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We set up new investment mechanisms, where storage development is based on several combined economic values. After categorising the long-term energy models and the power sector modelling tools in a common typology, we showed the need for a better integration of both approaches. Therefore, the second major contribution of our work is the yearly coupling of POLES to a short-term optimisation of the power sector operation, with the European Unit Commitment and Dispatch model (EUCAD). The two-way data exchange allows the long-term coherent scenarios of POLES to be directly backed by the short-term technical detail of EUCAD. Our results forecast a strong and rather quick development of the cheapest flexibility options: grid interconnections, pumped hydro storage and demand response programs, including electric vehicle charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid storage. The more expensive battery storage presumably finds enough system value in the second half of the century. A sensitivity analysis shows that improving the fixed costs of batteries impacts more the investments than improving their efficiency. We also show the explicit dependency between storage and variable renewable energy sources. (author) [fr

A New Technique of Removing Blind Spots to Optimize Wireless Coverage in Indoor Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. W. Reza

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Blind spots (or bad sampling points in indoor areas are the positions where no signal exists (or the signal is too weak and the existence of a receiver within the blind spot decelerates the performance of the communication system. Therefore, it is one of the fundamental requirements to eliminate the blind spots from the indoor area and obtain the maximum coverage while designing the wireless networks. In this regard, this paper combines ray-tracing (RT, genetic algorithm (GA, depth first search (DFS, and branch-and-bound method as a new technique that guarantees the removal of blind spots and subsequently determines the optimal wireless coverage using minimum number of transmitters. The proposed system outperforms the existing techniques in terms of algorithmic complexity and demonstrates that the computation time can be reduced as high as 99% and 75%, respectively, as compared to existing algorithms. Moreover, in terms of experimental analysis, the coverage prediction successfully reaches 99% and, thus, the proposed coverage model effectively guarantees the removal of blind spots.

Analytical modeling of the temporal evolution of hot spot temperatures in silicon solar cells

Science.gov (United States)

Wasmer, Sven; Rajsrima, Narong; Geisemeyer, Ino; Fertig, Fabian; Greulich, Johannes Michael; Rein, Stefan

2018-03-01

We present an approach to predict the equilibrium temperature of hot spots in crystalline silicon solar cells based on the analysis of their temporal evolution right after turning on a reverse bias. For this end, we derive an analytical expression for the time-dependent heat diffusion of a breakdown channel that is assumed to be cylindrical. We validate this by means of thermography imaging of hot spots right after turning on a reverse bias. The expression allows to be used to extract hot spot powers and radii from short-term measurements, targeting application in inline solar cell characterization. The extracted hot spot powers are validated at the hands of long-term dark lock-in thermography imaging. Using a look-up table of expected equilibrium temperatures determined by numerical and analytical simulations, we utilize the determined hot spot properties to predict the equilibrium temperatures of about 100 industrial aluminum back-surface field solar cells and achieve a high correlation coefficient of 0.86 and a mean absolute error of only 3.3 K.

Ultrasonic diagnosis of spot welding in thin plates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, No You; Hong, Min Sung

2005-01-01

Spot welding widely used in automotive and aerospace industries has made it possible to produce more precise and smaller electric part by robotization and systemization of welding process. The quality of welding depends upon the size of nugget between the overlapped steel plates. Recently, the thickness of the steel plates becomes much thinner and hence, it introduces the smaller size of nugget. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the criterion to evaluate the quality of weld in order to obtain the optimal welding conditions for the better performance. In this paper, a thin steel plates, 0.1 mm through 0.3 mm thickness, have been spot-welded at different welding conditions and the nugget sizes are examined by defocused scanning microscopy. The relationships between nugget sizes and weldability have been investigated experimentally. The result of ultrasonic technique shows the good agreement with that of the tensile test.

EDF experience with {open_quotes}hot spot{close_quotes} management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guio, J.M. de [Blayais Nuclear Power Plant, St. Ciers (France)

1995-03-01

During the past few years, {open_quotes}hot spots{close_quotes} due to the presence of particles of metal activated during their migration through the reactor core, have been detected at several French pressurized water reactor (PWR) units. These {open_quotes}hot spots,{close_quotes} which generate very high dose rates (from about 10 Gy/h to 200 G/h) are a significant factor in increase occupational exposures during outrates. Of particular concern are the difficult cases which prolong outage duration and increase the volume of radiological waste. Confronted with this situation, Electricite de France (EDF) has set up a national research group, as part of its ALARA program, to establish procedures and techniques to avoid, detect, and eliminate of hot spots. In particular, specific processes have been developed to eliminate these hot spots which are most costly in terms of occupational exposure due to the need for reactor maintenance. This paper sets out the general approach adopted at EDF so far to cope with the problem of hot spots, illustrated by experience at Blayais 3 and 4.

Long-term forecasting of hourly electricity load: Identification of consumption profiles and segmentation of customers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller Andersen, Frits; Larsen, Helge V.; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

2013-01-01

, to model and forecast long-term changes in the aggregated electricity load profile, we identify profiles for different categories of customers and link these to projections of the aggregated annual consumption by categories of customers. Long-term projection of the aggregated load is important for future......Data for aggregated hourly electricity demand shows systematic variations over the day, week, and seasons, and forecasting of aggregated hourly electricity load has been the subject of many studies. With hourly metering of individual customers, data for individual consumption profiles is available....... Using this data and analysing the case of Denmark, we show that consumption profiles for categories of customers are equally systematic but very different for distinct categories, that is, distinct categories of customers contribute differently to the aggregated electricity load profile. Therefore...

Hot spot dynamics in carbon nanotube array devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Michael; Steiner, Mathias; Seo, Jung-Woo T; Hersam, Mark C; Avouris, Phaedon

2015-03-11

We report on the dynamics of spatial temperature distributions in aligned semiconducting carbon nanotube array devices with submicrometer channel lengths. By using high-resolution optical microscopy in combination with electrical transport measurements, we observe under steady state bias conditions the emergence of time-variable, local temperature maxima with dimensions below 300 nm, and temperatures above 400 K. On the basis of time domain cross-correlation analysis, we investigate how the intensity fluctuations of the thermal radiation patterns are correlated with the overall device current. The analysis reveals the interdependence of electrical current fluctuations and time-variable hot spot formation that limits the overall device performance and, ultimately, may cause device degradation. The findings have implications for the future development of carbon nanotube-based technologies.

Plasma parameters of the cathode spot explosive electron emission cell obtained from the model of liquid-metal jet tearing and electrical explosion

Science.gov (United States)

Tsventoukh, M. M.

2018-05-01

A model has been developed for the explosive electron emission cell pulse of a vacuum discharge cathode spot that describes the ignition and extinction of the explosive pulse. The pulse is initiated due to hydrodynamic tearing of a liquid-metal jet which propagates from the preceding cell crater boundary and draws the ion current from the plasma produced by the preceding explosion. Once the jet neck has been resistively heated to a critical temperature (˜1 eV), the plasma starts expanding and decreasing in density, which corresponds to the extinction phase. Numerical and analytical solutions have been obtained that describe both the time behavior of the pulse plasma parameters and their average values. For the cell plasma, the momentum per transferred charge has been estimated to be some tens of g cm/(s C), which is consistent with the known measurements of ion velocity, ion erosion rate, and specific recoil force. This supports the model of the pressure-gradient-driven plasma acceleration mechanism for the explosive cathode spot cells. The ohmic electric field within the explosive current-carrying plasma has been estimated to be some tens of kV/cm, which is consistent with the known experimental data on cathode potential fall and explosive cell plasma size. This supports the model that assumes the ohmic nature of the cathode potential fall in a vacuum discharge.

A Drosophila wing spot test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayaki, Toshikazu; Yoshikawa, Isao; Niikawa, Norio; Hoshi, Masaharu.

1986-01-01

A Drosophila wing spot test system was used to investigate the effects of low doses of X-rays, gamma rays, and both 2.3 and 14.1 MeV neutrons on somatic chromosome mutation (SCM) induction. The incidence of SCM was significantly increased with any type of radiation, with evident linear dose-response relationship within the range of 3 to 20 cGy. It was estimated that relative biological effectiveness value for SCM induction of 2.3 MeV neutrons to X-rays and gamma rays is much higher than that of 14.1 MeV neutrons to those photons (2.4 vs 8.0). The Drosophila wing spot test system seems to become a promising in vivo experimental method for higher animals in terms of the lack of necessity for a marvelously large number of materials required in conventional test system. (Namekawa, K.)

The Effect of Wind Power on Electricity Prices in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsson, Tryggvi; Madsen, Henrik

This report is the result of a special course taken by the author at IMM DTU under the guidance of professor Henrik Madsen. The aim of the project is to analyze the influence wind energy has on the electricity spot price in Western Denmark and investigate how information about wind power production...... can be used to model the electricity spot price. Various model types were tried, giving very different performance. Here, only the models that performed best are discussed in order to keep focus on the projects goal....

Long-term program up to fiscal 1993 of electric power source development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawakami, Shin-ichi

1984-01-01

The long-term, ten years, program up to fiscal 1993 of electric power source development, determined by the Government aims at stable power supply and the expansion of utilization of petroleum-substitute energy. The annual growth in the gross national product (GNP) during the ten years was taken as about 4 %. So, the total electric power demand in fiscal 1993 is scheduled to be 731,000 million kwh, about 34 % up from 547,000 million kwh in fiscal 1983. The structure of electric power sources at the end of fiscal 1993 will be hydraulic 19.7 %, thermal 58.3 %, and nuclear 21.9 %. The development of electric power sources to be initiated in fiscal 1984 is hydraulic 500 MW, thermal 2,000 MW, and nuclear 6,000 MW. (Mori, K.)

Short-Term Wind Electric Power Forecasting Using a Novel Multi-Stage Intelligent Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haoran Zhao

2018-03-01

Full Text Available As the most efficient renewable energy source for generating electricity in a modern electricity network, wind power has the potential to realize sustainable energy supply. However, owing to its random and intermittent instincts, a high permeability of wind power into a power network demands accurate and effective wind energy prediction models. This study proposes a multi-stage intelligent algorithm for wind electric power prediction, which combines the Beveridge–Nelson (B-N decomposition approach, the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM, and a newly proposed intelligent optimization approach called the Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA. For data preprocessing, the B-N decomposition approach was employed to disintegrate the hourly wind electric power data into a deterministic trend, a cyclic term, and a random component. Then, the LSSVM optimized by the GOA (denoted GOA-LSSVM was applied to forecast the future 168 h of the deterministic trend, the cyclic term, and the stochastic component, respectively. Finally, the future hourly wind electric power values can be obtained by multiplying the forecasted values of these three trends. Through comparing the forecasting performance of this proposed method with the LSSVM, the LSSVM optimized by the Fruit-fly Optimization Algorithm (FOA-LSSVM, and the LSSVM optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-LSSVM, it is verified that the established multi-stage approach is superior to other models and can increase the precision of wind electric power prediction effectively.

Predictive Value of CTA Spot Sign on Hematoma Expansion in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Jie Peng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Hematoma expansion (HE occurs in approximately one-third of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage and leads to high rates of mortality and morbidity. Currently, contrast extravasation within hematoma, termed the spot sign on computed tomography angiography (CTA, has been identified as a strong independent predictor of early hematoma expansion. Past studies indicate that the spot sign is a dynamic entity and is indicative of active hemorrhage. Furthermore, to enhance the spot sign’s accuracy of predicting HE, spot parameters observed on CTA or dynamic CTA were used for its quantification. In addition, spot signs detected on multiphase CTA and dynamic CTA are shown to have higher sensitivity and specificity when compared with simple standardized spot sign detection in recent studies. Based on the spot sign, novel methods such as leakage sign and rate of contrast extravasation were explored to redefine HE prediction in combination with clinical characteristics and spot sign on CTA to assist clinical judgment. The spot sign is an accepted independent predictor of active hemorrhage and is used in both secondary intracerebral hemorrhage and the process of surgical assessment for hemorrhagic risk in patients with ischemic stroke. Spot sign predicts patients at high risk for hematoma expansion.

The compass rose pattern in electricity prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Batten, Jonathan A; Hamada, Mahmoud

2009-12-01

The "compass rose pattern" is known to appear in the phase portraits, or scatter diagrams, of the high-frequency returns of financial series. We first show that this pattern is also present in the returns of spot electricity prices. Early researchers investigating these phenomena hoped that these patterns signaled the presence of rich dynamics, possibly chaotic or fractal in nature. Although there is a definite autoregressive and conditional heteroscedasticity structure in electricity returns, we find that after simple filtering no pattern remains. While the series is non-normal in terms of their distribution and statistical tests fail to identify significant chaos, there is evidence of fractal structures in periodic price returns when measured over the trading day. The phase diagram of the filtered returns provides a useful visual check on independence, a property necessary for pricing and trading derivatives and portfolio construction, as well as providing useful insights into the market dynamics.

Density prediction and dimensionality reduction of mid-term electricity demand in China: A new semiparametric-based additive model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shao, Zhen; Yang, Shan-Lin; Gao, Fei

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A new stationary time series smoothing-based semiparametric model is established. • A novel semiparametric additive model based on piecewise smooth is proposed. • We model the uncertainty of data distribution for mid-term electricity forecasting. • We provide efficient long horizon simulation and extraction for external variables. • We provide stable and accurate density predictions for mid-term electricity demand. - Abstract: Accurate mid-term electricity demand forecasting is critical for efficient electric planning, budgeting and operating decisions. Mid-term electricity demand forecasting is notoriously complicated, since the demand is subject to a range of external drivers, such as climate change, economic development, which will exhibit monthly, seasonal, and annual complex variations. Conventional models are based on the assumption that original data is stable and normally distributed, which is generally insignificant in explaining actual demand pattern. This paper proposes a new semiparametric additive model that, in addition to considering the uncertainty of the data distribution, includes practical discussions covering the applications of the external variables. To effectively detach the multi-dimensional volatility of mid-term demand, a novel piecewise smooth method which allows reduction of the data dimensionality is developed. Besides, a semi-parametric procedure that makes use of bootstrap algorithm for density forecast and model estimation is presented. Two typical cases in China are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results suggest that both meteorological and economic variables play a critical role in mid-term electricity consumption prediction in China, while the extracted economic factor is adequate to reveal the potentially complex relationship between electricity consumption and economic fluctuation. Overall, the proposed model can be easily applied to mid-term demand forecasting, and

Performance of batteries for electric vehicles on short and longer term

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gerssen - Gondelach, Sarah|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/355262436; Faaij, André P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

2012-01-01

In this work, the prospects of available and new battery technologies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are examined. Five selected battery technologies are assessed on battery performance and cost in the short, medium and long term. Driving cycle simulations are carried out to assess the

Performance of Batteries for electric vehicles on shorter and longer term

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gerssen-Gondelach, S.J.; Faaij, A.P.C.

2012-01-01

In this work, the prospects of available and new battery technologies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are examined. Five selected battery technologies are assessed on battery performance and cost in the short, medium and long term. Driving cycle simulations are carried out to assess the

Effect of vacuum arc cathode spot distribution on breaking capacity of the arc-extinguishing chamber

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Can; Yuan, Zhao; He, Junjia

2017-10-01

A DC circuit breaker performs a key function in breaking an intermediate-frequency (IF) current since breaking a pure IF current is equivalent to breaking a very small DC with a reverse IF current. In this study, it is found that cathode spots show a ring-shaped distribution at 2000 Hz. An arc with an uneven distribution of cathode spots has been simulated. The simulation results show that the distribution of cathode spots significantly affect the microparameter distribution of arc plasma. The current distribution on the anode side differs from that on the cathode side under the total radial electric field. Specifically, the anode current distribution is both uneven and concentrated. The applied axial magnetic field, which cannot reduce the concentrated anode current distribution effectively, might increase the concentration of the anode current. Finally, the uneven distribution of cathode spots reduces the breaking capacity of the arc-extinguishing chamber.

Electrodynamic energy harvester for electrical transformer's ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Electrical transformer; electrodynamic; energy harvester; self-powered ...... Kennedy S P and Gordner T 2013 Hot spot studies for sheet wound transformer wind- ... and Lambert F 2011 Powering low-cost utility sensors using energy harvesting.

The electricity supply industry in England and Wales. Medium term development plan 1986-93

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-09-01

The main objective of the Electricity Supply Industry in England and Wales is to develop and maintain electricity supplies to meet customers' needs as cheaply as possible. Over the medium term, 1986 - 1993, the goal is to reduce the real average price per kWh sold, whilst maintaining high standards of service and meeting financial obligations. The strategy set out comprises reducing controllable costs per kWh sold to 1992/3, pursuing a vigorous and selective marketing strategy so that an expected sales increase of 10% is achieved, securing a long term supply of coal at minimum cost by developing the commercial relationship with British Coal, increasing the proportion of electrical energy supplied by nuclear energy to 25% by 1992/3 and being environmentally concerned. The introduction outlines the medium term business, energy and economic environment, financial targets and price prospects. Plans to support the strategy outlined are presented. Each section sets out the objectives and the plans to achieve these. The strategy for new power stations is to develop fossil-fueled and nuclear as well as to develop alternative technologies. (UK)

Genetic characterization of angular leaf spot resistance in selected ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Mr Tryphone

2015-10-28

Oct 28, 2015 ... Angular leaf spot disease (ALS) caused by Pseudocercospora griseola is one ... Author(s) agree that this article remains permanently open access under the terms ... that results in shrivelled seeds of reduced size and quality.

Rocky Mountain spotted fever

Science.gov (United States)

... spotted fever on the foot Rocky Mountain spotted fever, petechial rash Antibodies Deer and dog tick References McElligott SC, Kihiczak GG, Schwartz RA. Rocky Mountain spotted fever and other rickettsial infections. In: Lebwohl MG, Heymann ...

Electric long-term behaviour of polyethylene insulations for medium-voltage cables cross-linked chemically or by radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scharff, C.; Eberhardt, M.

1989-01-01

The electric long-term behaviour of cross-linked polyethylene (CLPE) was studied at room temperature by measuring the channel operating time under needling and the total charge before channel operation. It is found that the decomposition products formed in CLPE act as tension stabilizers. They have a dominating influence on the electric long-term behaviour

The Spotting Distribution of Wildfires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan Martin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In wildfire science, spotting refers to non-local creation of new fires, due to downwind ignition of brands launched from a primary fire. Spotting is often mentioned as being one of the most difficult problems for wildfire management, because of its unpredictable nature. Since spotting is a stochastic process, it makes sense to talk about a probability distribution for spotting, which we call the spotting distribution. Given a location ahead of the fire front, we would like to know how likely is it to observe a spot fire at that location in the next few minutes. The aim of this paper is to introduce a detailed procedure to find the spotting distribution. Most prior modelling has focused on the maximum spotting distance, or on physical subprocesses. We will use mathematical modelling, which is based on detailed physical processes, to derive a spotting distribution. We discuss the use and measurement of this spotting distribution in fire spread, fire management and fire breaching. The appendix of this paper contains a comprehensive review of the relevant underlying physical sub-processes of fire plumes, launching fire brands, wind transport, falling and terminal velocity, combustion during transport, and ignition upon landing.

Market structure in the US electricity industry: a long-term perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamerschen, D.R.

2005-01-01

We estimate changes in market structure in the US electric power industry during the last three decades using two independent approaches. First, we estimate an industry-wide conjectural-variations parameter. We find that industry concentration was generally rising during the 1970s but has been gradually and consistently falling since the early 1980s. To check the robustness of these results, we then use a translog production function to estimate the Lerner Index. The results confirm that the industry was becoming less concentrated during the 1980s, though the Lerner Index tended to fluctuate during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Our results suggest that the current state of the electricity industry may have more to do with long-term changes in market structure than recent attempts to establish competitive wholesale electricity markets. (author)

Impacts of Western Area Power Administration's power marketing alternatives on electric utility systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veselka, T.D.; Portante, E.C.; Koritarov, V.

1995-03-01

This technical memorandum estimates the effects of alternative contractual commitments that may be initiated by the Western Area Power Administration's Salt Lake City Area Office. It also studies hydropower operational restrictions at the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects in combination with these alternatives. Power marketing and hydropower operational effects are estimated in support of Western's Electric Power Marketing Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). Electricity production and capacity expansion for utility systems that will be directly affected by alternatives specified in the EIS are simulated. Cost estimates are presented by utility type and for various activities such as capacity expansion, generation, long-term firm purchases and sales, fixed operation and maintenance expenses, and spot market activities. Operational changes at hydropower facilities are also investigated

SPOT Program

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jason T.; Welsh, Sam J.; Farinetti, Antonio L.; Wegner, Tim; Blakeslee, James; Deboeck, Toni F.; Dyer, Daniel; Corley, Bryan M.; Ollivierre, Jarmaine; Kramer, Leonard;

Children's exposure assessment of radiofrequency fields: Comparison between spot and personal measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallastegi, Mara; Huss, Anke; Santa-Marina, Loreto; Aurrekoetxea, Juan J; Guxens, Mònica; Birks, Laura Ellen; Ibarluzea, Jesús; Guerra, David; Röösli, Martin; Jiménez-Zabala, Ana

2018-05-24

Radiofrequency (RF) fields are widely used and, while it is still unknown whether children are more vulnerable to this type of exposure, it is essential to explore their level of exposure in order to conduct adequate epidemiological studies. Personal measurements provide individualized information, but they are costly in terms of time and resources, especially in large epidemiological studies. Other approaches, such as estimation of time-weighted averages (TWAs) based on spot measurements could simplify the work. The aims of this study were to assess RF exposure in the Spanish INMA birth cohort by spot measurements and by personal measurements in the settings where children tend to spend most of their time, i.e., homes, schools and parks; to identify the settings and sources that contribute most to that exposure; and to explore if exposure assessment based on spot measurements is a valid proxy for personal exposure. When children were 8 years old, spot measurements were conducted in the principal settings of 104 participants: homes (104), schools and their playgrounds (26) and parks (79). At the same time, personal measurements were taken for a subsample of 50 children during 3 days. Exposure assessment based on personal and on spot measurements were compared both in terms of mean exposures and in exposure-dependent categories by means of Bland-Altman plots, Cohen's kappa and McNemar test. Median exposure levels ranged from 29.73 (in children's bedrooms) to 200.10 μW/m 2 (in school playgrounds) for spot measurements and were higher outdoors than indoors. Median personal exposure was 52.13 μW/m 2 and median levels of assessments based on spot measurements ranged from 25.46 to 123.21 μW/m 2 . Based on spot measurements, the sources that contributed most to the exposure were FM radio, mobile phone downlink and Digital Video Broadcasting-Terrestrial, while indoor and personal sources contributed very little (altogether spot measurements, with the latter

Pre-announcements of price increase intentions in liner shipping spot markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Gang; Rytter, Niels G M; Jiang, Liping

2017-01-01

competition perspective, which will indirectly indicate whether carriers are able to manipulate spot rates following GRI announcements. Taking the Far East–North Europe trade between 2009 and 2013 as an example, the paper first reveals the gradual increase of GRI frequency and size, which reflects carriers...... factors, in sequence of explanation power, are the total capacity of GRI carriers, the idling fleet size, the spot rate level, and the average ship-loading factor. Clearly the latter three factors are market fundamentals, which are unlikely to be influenced by an individual carrier in the short term....... In actual fact, the conclusion reached is that there is little evidence that carriers can manipulate and distort spot rates through GRIs...

Computed tomography angiography spot sign predicts intraprocedural aneurysm rupture in subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Burkhardt, Jan-Karl; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Stienen, Martin Nikolaus; Schöni, Daniel; Fung, Christian; Roethlisberger, Michel; Corniola, Marco Vincenzo; Bervini, David; Maduri, Rodolfo; Valsecchi, Daniele; Tok, Sina; Schatlo, Bawarjan; Bijlenga, Philippe; Schaller, Karl; Bozinov, Oliver; Regli, Luca

2017-07-01

To analyze whether the computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign predicts the intraprocedural rupture rate and outcome in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). From a prospective nationwide multicenter registry database, 1023 patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) were analyzed retrospectively. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis were used to compare spot sign-positive and -negative patients with aneurysmal intracerebral hemorrhage (aICH) for baseline characteristics, aneurysmal and ICH imaging characteristics, treatment and admission status as well as outcome at discharge and 1-year follow-up (1YFU) using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). A total of 218 out of 1023 aSAH patients (21%) presented with aICH including 23/218 (11%) patients with spot sign. Baseline characteristics were comparable between spot sign-positive and -negative patients. There was a higher clip-to-coil ratio in patients with than without aICH (both spot sign positive and negative). Median aICH volume was significantly higher in the spot sign-positive group (50 ml, 13-223 ml) than in the spot sign-negative group (18 ml, 1-416; p spot sign-positive aICH thus were three times as likely as those with spot sign-negative aICH to show an intraoperative aneurysm rupture [odds ratio (OR) 3.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-8.92, p = 0.046]. Spot sign-positive aICH patients showed a significantly worse mRS at discharge (p = 0.039) than patients with spot sign-negative aICH (median mRS 5 vs. 4). Logistic regression analysis showed that the spot sign was an aICH volume-dependent predictor for outcome. Both spot sign-positive and -negative aICH patients showed comparable rates of hospital death, death at 1YFU and mRS at 1YFU. In this multicenter data analysis, patients with spot sign-positive aICH showed higher aICH volumes and a higher rate of intraprocedural aneurysm rupture, but comparable long-term outcome to spot sign

Spot volume nearly 5 million lbs; restricted price hits $11.00

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1995-01-01

A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in March 1995 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. The 40 transactions made for the month are described separately for each market. Deals made in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and enrichment markets are further detailed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

Models of spots and flares

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mullan, D.J.

1983-01-01

Laboratory experiments in recent years have shown that there are many more ways to drive a plasma out of equilibrium than to preserve equilibrium. In that sense, it is perhaps easier to understand why flares should occur in a stellar atmosphere than why a long-lived feature such as a dark spot should persist. The author summarizes work on the equilibrium structure of cool spots in the sun and stars. Since spots involve complex interactions between convective flows and magnetic fields, he needs to refer to observations for help in identifying the dominant processes which should enter into the modelling. His summary therefore begins by discussing certain relevant properties of spots in the solar atmosphere. The next sections deal with the magnetic fields in spots, the stability of spots, spot cooling and missing flux. The author concludes that spots should be viewed not simply as cool areas, but rather as engines which do the work of converting the energy of convective flows into flare-compatible form. (Auth.)

1997 begins quietly in the spot market as prices continue to drop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1997-01-01

A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in January 1997 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

ELMO model predicts the price of electric power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antila, H.

2001-01-01

Electrowatt-Ekono has developed a new model, by which it is possible to make long-term prognoses on the development of electricity prices in the Nordic Countries. The ELMO model can be used as an analysis service of the electricity markets and estimation of the profitability of long-term power distribution contracts with different scenarios. It can also be applied for calculation of technical and economical fundamentals for new power plants, and for estimation of the effects of different taxation models on the emissions of power generation. The model describes the whole power generation system, the power and heat consumption and transmission. The Finnish power generation system is based on the Electrowatt-Ekono's boiler database by combining different data elements. Calculation is based on the assumption that the Nordic power generation system is used optimally, and that the production costs are minimised. In practise the effectively operated electricity markets ensure the optimal use of the production system. The market area to be described consists of Finland and Sweden. The spot prices have long been the same. Norway has been treated as a separate market area. The most potential power generation system, the power consumption and the power transmission system are presumed for the target year during a normal rainfall situation. The basic scenario is calculated on the basis of the preconditional data. The calculation is carried out on hourly basis, which enables the estimation of the price variation of electric power between different times during the day and seasons. The system optimises the power generation on the basis of electricity and heat consumption curves and fuel prices. The result is an hourly limit price for electric power. Estimates are presented as standard form reports. Prices are presented as average annuals, in the seasonal base, and in hourly or daily basis for different seasons

Load-shift incentives for household demand response: Evaluation of hourly dynamic pricing and rebate schemes in a wind-based electricity system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Katz, Jonas; Møller Andersen, Frits; Morthorst, Poul Erik

2016-01-01

under scenarios with large shares of wind power in a Danish case study. Our results indicate strategies that could be favourable in ensuring high adoption of products and efficient response by households. We find that simple pricing schemes, though economically less efficient, could become important......Applying a partial equilibrium model of the electricity market we analyse effects of exposing household electricity customers to retail products with variable pricing. Both short-term and long-term effects of exposing customers to hourly spot market prices and a simpler rebate scheme are analysed...... in an early phase to initialise the development of household demand response. At a later point, when long-term dynamics take effect, a larger effort should be made to shift consumers onto real-time rates, and an increased focus on overall adoption of variable pricing will be required. Another finding...

Effect of the small-scale auxiliary laser spots on the 3ω0/2 harmonic emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Z.; Zhang, H.; He, X.; Lin, K.; Wang, X.; Zhuang, Y.; Wang, L.; Wei, X.; Lu, Q.; Shi, A.; Dai, M.; Tian, L.; Fan, G.; Li, J.

1992-01-01

Experiments have shown that a single 10-μm-radius laser spot is not able to produce the 90 degree side-emitted 3/2 harmonic efficiently in a preformed laser plasma. However, with the help of one or two auxiliary laser spots with a size similar to that of the main spot, the side-emitted 3/2 harmonic can frequently be detected when some positional and angular conditions for the auxiliary spots are met. The origin of these phenomena has been analyzed in terms of a proposed reflected laser photon-coupling model

CO2-emission trading and green markets for renewable electricity. Wilmar - deliverable 4.1

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Azuma-Dicke, N.; Morthorst, Poul Erik; Ravn, H.F.

2004-01-01

This report is Deliverable 4.1 of the EU project “Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets” (WILMAR) and describes the application of two policy instruments, Tradable Emissions Permits (TEP’s) and Tradable Green Certificates (TGC’s) forelectricity produced from renewable energy...... sources in the European Union and the implications for implementation in the Wilmar model. The introduction of a common emission-trading system in the EU is expected to have an upward effect on the spot pricesat the electricity market. The variations of the spot price imply that some types of power...... generation may change the situation from earning money to losing money despite the increasing spot price. Heavy restrictions on emissions penalise thefossil-fuelled technologies significantly, and the associated increase in the spot price need not compensate for this. Therefore, a market of TEP’s is expected...

Kekuatan Geser dan Pola Patahan Loop Space Maintainer yang Dibuat dengan Teknik Spot Welding Elektrik

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elin Karlina

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research was to study the effect of spot variations on shear strength of spot welds in an electric loop space maintainer. Stainless steel wire of 0.8 mm diameter and nickel chromium crwon for lower second molar of temporary teeth were used. A loop 1 cm wide, made of 3.5 cm stainless steel wire, was welded with 3 dots on the crown using an electric spot welder. Each dot for each group took different spot variations from 1 X – 4 X. A loop space maintainer made with the usual materials and techniques as applied at the IKGA FKG UI Clinic was used as a control, with a torch as heat source. Ten specimens each were prepared for shear testing and three spesimens each for metallography. Universal testing machine was used for shear strength testing at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/min, and SEM/EDS was used for metallography and fractography. The data were statistically analyzed with one-way ANOVA at p = 0.05, and Tukey post hoc test. The results show that the shear strength of the welded loop space maintainer was higher than that of a soldered loop space maintainer, although the difference was not statistically significant with spot variation 1 X. SEM/EDS analysis suggests that a new alloy forms at the contact area of welded and soldered loop space maintainer. Fractography of the joints suggests that welds are better than soldered joints, with higher ductility and toughness, as can be seen from the dimpled pattern of the welded joint and cleavage patterns in the control joints. In conclusion, the loop space maintainer is better made by welding than by soldering.

Effects of spot size and spot spacing on lateral penumbra reduction when using a dynamic collimation system for spot scanning proton therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hyer, Daniel E; Hill, Patrick M; Wang, Dongxu; Smith, Blake R; Flynn, Ryan T

2014-01-01

The purpose of this work was to investigate the reduction in lateral dose penumbra that can be achieved when using a dynamic collimation system (DCS) for spot scanning proton therapy as a function of two beam parameters: spot size and spot spacing. This is an important investigation as both values impact the achievable dose distribution and a wide range of values currently exist depending on delivery hardware. Treatment plans were created both with and without the DCS for in-air spot sizes (σ air ) of 3, 5, 7, and 9 mm as well as spot spacing intervals of 2, 4, 6 and 8 mm. Compared to un-collimated treatment plans, the plans created with the DCS yielded a reduction in the mean dose to normal tissue surrounding the target of 26.2–40.6% for spot sizes of 3–9 mm, respectively. Increasing the spot spacing resulted in a decrease in the time penalty associated with using the DCS that was approximately proportional to the reduction in the number of rows in the raster delivery pattern. We conclude that dose distributions achievable when using the DCS are comparable to those only attainable with much smaller initial spot sizes, suggesting that the goal of improving high dose conformity may be achieved by either utilizing a DCS or by improving beam line optics. (note)

On the origin of delta spots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, F.

1983-01-01

Mount Wilson sunspot drawings from 1966 through 1980 were used in conjunction with Hα filtergrams from Big Bear Solar Observatory to examine the origin of delta spots, spots with bipolar umbrae within one penumbra. Of the six cases we studied, five were formed by the union of non-paired spots. They are either shoved into one another by two neighboring growing bipoles or by a new spot born piggy-back style on an existing spot of opposite polarity. Proper motions of the growing spots take on curvilinear paths around one another to avoid a collision. This is the shear motion observed in delta spots (Tanaka, 1979). In the remaining case, the delta spot was formed by spots that emerged as a pair. Our findings indicate no intrinsic differences in the formation or the behavior between delta spots of normal magnetic configuration. (orig.)

Wholesale electricity markets in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rios, J. L.

2010-01-01

Electricity Wholesale Markets provide efficient operation of power stations, facilitate hedging instruments for generators and retailers and deliver price signals for new investments. Despite having a common regulatory framework at European level whose last aim is a single electricity market, Wholesale markets have been unevenly developed in each Member State. The evolution form a spot-based market towards a forward-based market needs a certain level of liquidity, transparency and regulatory stability. Interconnections are the key element to promote the integration of electricity markets. To facilitate this, European Regional Initiatives have pushed regulatory harmonization between countries and market coupling projects. (Author)

Vacuum arc cathode spot motion in oblique magnetic fields: An interpretation of the Robson experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beilis, I. I. [Electrical Discharge and Plasma Laboratory, School of Electrical Engineering, Fleischman Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv University, P.O.B. 39040, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel)

2016-09-15

A model was developed of vacuum arc cathode spot motion in a magnetic field that obliquely intercepts the cathode surface. The model takes into account a force under an electric field caused by retrograde spot motion across the normal component of the magnetic field, producing a drift velocity component in the direction of the acute angle between the magnetic field and the cathode surface. The relationship between velocity of the retrograde direction and drift velocity of the cathode spot motion to the acute angle was developed. The dependencies of the drift angle θ on the acute angle φ, magnetic field strength B, and arc current I were calculated. It was found that the calculated θ increased with φ, B, and I in accordance with Robson's measurements.

Strategic capacity withholding through failures in the German-Austrian electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergler, Julian; Heim, Sven; Hüschelrath, Kai

2017-01-01

In electricity day-ahead markets organized as uniform price auction, a small reduction in supply in times of high demand can cause substantial increases in price. We use a unique data set of failures of generation capacity in the German-Austrian electricity market to investigate the relationship between electricity spot prices and generation failures. Differentiating between strategic and non-strategic failures, we find a positive impact of prices on non-usable marginal generation capacity for strategic failures only. Our empirical analysis therefore provides evidence for the existence of strategic capacity withholding through failures suggesting further monitoring efforts by public authorities to effectively reduce the likelihood of such abuses of a dominant position. - Highlights: • We investigate the relationship between electricity spot prices and generation failures. • Announced (non-strategic) failures are found to decrease with increasing price. • Unannounced (strategic) failures of marginal technologies increase with increasing price. • Our evidence is consistent with the presence of capacity withholding strategies in the German-Austrian electricity market.

Birth-jump processes and application to forest fire spotting.

Science.gov (United States)

Hillen, T; Greese, B; Martin, J; de Vries, G

2015-01-01

Birth-jump models are designed to describe population models for which growth and spatial spread cannot be decoupled. A birth-jump model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation. We present two different derivations of this equation, one based on a random walk approach and the other based on a two-compartmental reaction-diffusion model. In the case that the redistribution kernels are highly concentrated, we show that the integro-differential equation can be approximated by a reaction-diffusion equation, in which the proliferation rate contributes to both the diffusion term and the reaction term. We completely solve the corresponding critical domain size problem and the minimal wave speed problem. Birth-jump models can be applied in many areas in mathematical biology. We highlight an application of our results in the context of forest fire spread through spotting. We show that spotting increases the invasion speed of a forest fire front.

Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Energy Generation for a Photovoltaic System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinh V.T.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This article presents a short-term forecast of electric energy output of a photovoltaic (PV system towards Tomsk city, Russia climate variations (module temperature and solar irradiance. The system is located at Institute of Non-destructive Testing, Tomsk Polytechnic University. The obtained results show good agreement between actual data and prediction values.

Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

2018-06-01

Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

What is demand response? Contributing to secure security-of-supply at the electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grenaa Jensen, Stine; Skytte, Klaus; Togeby, Mikael

2004-01-01

There is a common understanding that demand response can reduce the total costs of electricity reliability. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where high spot prices in peak periods and blackouts have recently been seen. It is not easy from the existing literature to find a common definition of demands response. Often the term demand response is used broadly without looking at the time dimension. However, it does not make sense to talk about demand response without talking about when, for how long the energy is used or saved, and at which costs. This paper surveys these subjects and set up a systematic grouping of the different characteristics of demand response. It especially looks at the time dimension. (au)

Electric vehicles and India's low carbon passenger transport: A long-term co-benefits assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal; Shukla, Priyadarshi

2017-01-01

Electric vehicles have attracted the attention of India's policy makers as clean technology alternatives due to their multiple advantages like higher efficiency and lower air pollution in short to medium term and reduced CO2 emissions as electricity gets decarbonized in the long-run under low...... carbon scenarios. This paper uses an energy system model ANSWER-MARKAL to analyse the role of electric vehicles (EV) in India. The modelling assessment spans the period 2010 to 2050 and analyses future EV demand in India under three scenarios: i) a ‘Reference’ scenario which includes the continuation...

Different approaches to supply adequacy in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosellon, J.

2006-01-01

There is a growing concern that liberalized electricity markets may not provide incentives for sufficient investment in generation capacity to meet future demand. This is problematic because electricity markets are characterized by short-term inelastic demand in which the long-term supply-demand balance cannot be achieved through a market-clearing price. Also, final consumers do not feel the need to engage in long-term contracts because they are usually isolated from spot prices by regulated tariffs. This paper presented some of the measures that have been proposed internationally to ensure a sufficient amount of generation capacity reserves. Measures such as strategic reserves, capacity payments, capacity requirements and call options were analyzed in terms of their degree of centralization or decentralization with regards to the amount of capacity and the price of capacity. Each one of these measures was analyzed in this paper to clarify their theoretical aspects as well as their international application and assessment. The analytical and practical strengths and weaknesses of each approach were discussed. Capacity payments and requirements alone were found to be inadequate both in theory and practice. It was suggested that capacity payments or requirements might work efficiently if combined with risk management approaches and hedging instruments that promote demand side participation. Regulatory intervention would then be focused on promoting rules that facilitate liquid markets for energy futures and risk management. 37 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

Different approaches to supply adequacy in electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosellon, J. [Centro de Investigacion y Dcencia Economicas, Mexico City (Mexico)

2006-10-01

There is a growing concern that liberalized electricity markets may not provide incentives for sufficient investment in generation capacity to meet future demand. This is problematic because electricity markets are characterized by short-term inelastic demand in which the long-term supply-demand balance cannot be achieved through a market-clearing price. Also, final consumers do not feel the need to engage in long-term contracts because they are usually isolated from spot prices by regulated tariffs. This paper presented some of the measures that have been proposed internationally to ensure a sufficient amount of generation capacity reserves. Measures such as strategic reserves, capacity payments, capacity requirements and call options were analyzed in terms of their degree of centralization or decentralization with regards to the amount of capacity and the price of capacity. Each one of these measures was analyzed in this paper to clarify their theoretical aspects as well as their international application and assessment. The analytical and practical strengths and weaknesses of each approach were discussed. Capacity payments and requirements alone were found to be inadequate both in theory and practice. It was suggested that capacity payments or requirements might work efficiently if combined with risk management approaches and hedging instruments that promote demand side participation. Regulatory intervention would then be focused on promoting rules that facilitate liquid markets for energy futures and risk management. 37 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

Improving the principles of short-term electric load forecasting of the Irkutsk region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kornilov Vladimir

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of electric load (EL is an important task for both electric power entities and large consumers of electricity [1]. Large consumers are faced with the need to compose applications for the planned volume of EL, and the deviation of subsequent real consumption from previously announced leads to the appearance of penalties from the wholesale market. In turn, electricity producers are interested in forecasting the demand for electricity for prompt response to its fluctuations and for the purpose of optimal infrastructure development. The most difficult and urgent task is the hourly forecasting of EL, which is extremely important for the successful solution of problems of optimization of generating capacities, minimization of power losses, dispatching control, security assessment of power supply, etc. Ultimately, such forecasts allow optimizing the cash costs for electricity and fuel or water consumption during generation. This paper analyzes the experience of the branch of JSC "SO UPS" Irkutsk Regional Dispatch Office of the procedure for short-term forecasting of the EL of the Irkutsk region.

Capacity investment and competition in decentralized electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fehr, Nils-Henrik von der; Harbord, David Cameron

1997-11-01

With particular reference to the recently deregulated and market-based electricity industries in Norway, the UK and elsewhere the report analyses oligopoly entry and capacity investment decisions as a non-cooperative game in a decentralized electricity market. A two-stage game is considered, with multiple capacity types and uncertain demand, in which capacity decisions are made prior to spot-market, or price competition. Equilibrium outcomes for different pricing mechanisms or regulatory regimes are analysed. The following questions are dealt with in particular: Will industry capacity be sufficient to ensure adequate supply security? Does imperfect competition in the spot-market lead to an inefficient mix of base-load and peak-load technologies? How do different regulatory policies affect the market outcomes? 24 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

Reducing operating costs: A collaborative approach between industry and electric utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tyers, B.; Sibbald, L.

1993-01-01

The unit cost of electricity to industrial consumers is expected to increase at a rate of 5% annually in the 1990s. The partnership that has been created between Amoco Canada Petroleum Company and TransAlta Utilities to control the cost of electricity is described. To allow the company to receive lower rates for interruptible power, a number of measures have been taken. The Amoco Whitecourt plant has standby generators in reserve that can be used when utility power is not available. A Pembina compressor can be turned off for up to 12 hours, at 30 minutes notice, without affecting field pressure. At the East Crossfield plant sales gas can be compressed using electricity or a gas-driven engine. Spot market energy is used in a number of plants allowing electric drive alternatives to plant operators and offering short term energy markets. TransAlta invests in electrical equipment such as switchgear as well as transmission lines and transformers. New rate alternatives offered by TransAlta Utilities include review of the need for a demand ratchet, additional time of use rates, unbundling of rates allowing power purchase from alternative sources, rates that follow product costs, reduced rates for conversion of gas to electric drives certain circumstances, energy audits, and power factor credits. 5 figs

Long term forecasting of hourly electricity consumption in local areas in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller Andersen, Frits; Larsen, Helge V.; Gaardestrup, R.B.

2013-01-01

. The model describes the entire profile of hourly consumption and is a first step towards differentiated local predictions of electricity consumption.The model is based on metering of aggregated hourly consumption at transformer stations covering selected local areas and on national statistics of hourly......Long term projections of hourly electricity consumption in local areas are important for planning of the transmission grid. In Denmark, at present the method used for grid planning is based on statistical analysis of the hour of maximum load and for each local area the maximum load is projected...... to change proportional to changes in the aggregated national electricity consumption. That is, specific local conditions are not considered. Yet, from measurements of local consumption we know that:. •consumption profiles differ between local areas,•consumption by categories of customers contribute...

Electrical conduction along dislocations in plastically deformed GaN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kamimura, Y; Yokoyama, T; Oiwa, H; Edagawa, K [Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Yonenaga, I, E-mail: yasushi@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Institute for Materials Research, Tohoku University, 2-1-1 Katahira, Aoba, Sendai 980-8577 (Japan)

2009-07-15

Electrical conduction along dislocations in plastically deformed n-GaN single crystals has been investigated by scanning spread resistance microscopy (SSRM). In the SSRM images, many conductive spots have been observed, which correspond to electrical conduction along the dislocations introduced by deformation. Here, the introduced dislocations are b=(a/3)<1overline 210> edge dislocations parallel to the [0001] direction. The current values at the spots normalized to the background current value are larger than 100. Previous works have shown that grown-in edge dislocations in GaN are nonconductive. The high conductivity of the deformation-introduced edge dislocations in the present work suggests that the conductivity depends sensitively on the dislocation core structure.

Roth spots in pernicious anaemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Macauley, Mavin; Nag, Satyajit

2011-04-19

Roth spots are white-centred retinal haemorrhages, previously thought to be pathognomonic for subacute bacterial endocarditis. A number of other conditions can be associated with Roth spots. In this case, the authors describe the association of Roth spots and pernicious anaemia. This association has been rarely described in the medical literature. Correct diagnosis and treatment with intramuscular vitamin B(12) injections resulted in complete resolution of the anaemia and Roth spots. The authors hope to alert clinicians to think of various differentials of Roth spots, and initiate prompt investigation and management.

Evaluation of the nugget diameter in spot welded joints between two steel sheets by means of a potential drop technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tohmyoh, Hironori; Ikarashi, Hidetomo; Matsui, Yoichi; Hasegawa, Yuta; Obara, Satoshi

2015-01-01

A potential drop technique which utilizes the electrical circuit used in resistance spot welding is reported. Spot welded samples comprising two steel sheets were inserted between the two Cu electrodes and a constant direct current was supplied between the electrodes. The potential drop between two points, one on each electrode, was determined by analysis for various values of nugget diameter and various values of the contact resistance between the Cu electrodes and the steel sheet sample. The nugget diameter of the spot welded joint could be quantitatively evaluated from the measured potential drop and the equation obtained from the analysis. (paper)

Evaluation of the nugget diameter in spot welded joints between two steel sheets by means of a potential drop technique

Science.gov (United States)

Tohmyoh, Hironori; Ikarashi, Hidetomo; Matsui, Yoichi; Hasegawa, Yuta; Obara, Satoshi

2015-08-01

A potential drop technique which utilizes the electrical circuit used in resistance spot welding is reported. Spot welded samples comprising two steel sheets were inserted between the two Cu electrodes and a constant direct current was supplied between the electrodes. The potential drop between two points, one on each electrode, was determined by analysis for various values of nugget diameter and various values of the contact resistance between the Cu electrodes and the steel sheet sample. The nugget diameter of the spot welded joint could be quantitatively evaluated from the measured potential drop and the equation obtained from the analysis.

Comparison of outcomes between overlapping-spot and single-spot photodynamic therapy for circumscribed choroidal hemangioma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhao-An Su

2014-02-01

Full Text Available AIM:To compare the efficacy and safety of photodynamic therapy (PDT with overlapping multiple spots and single spot for treating circumscribed choroidal hemangioma.METHODS:Twenty-two patients (22 eyes with symptomatic circumscribed choroidal hemangioma received PDT treatment. Fourteen patients received overlapping spots (two to three spots PDT, whereas eight patients received single-spot PDT. Laser was used at 50J/cm2 for 83s in the overlapping-spot group and 50J/cm2 for 166s in the single-spot group. Clinical examination, funduscopy, fluorescein angiography, and ultrasonography were performed at baseline and after treatment.RESULTS:The mean follow-up time was 28.5±8.0 months in the overlapping-spot group and 27.0±5.0 months in the single-spot group. Nine patients (64.2% had their vision improved over two lines on the Snellen chart, and five patients showed stable visual acuity in the overlapping-spot group. The mean thickness of tumor decreased from 2.7±0.8mm to 1.2±0.9mm, and the mean greatest tumor linear dimension decreased from 7.4±1.5mm to 4.5±3.5mm after treatment. In the single-spot group, two patients (25% had their vision improved over two lines on the Snellen chart, and six patients had unchanged stable vision. The mean tumor thickness in this group decreased from 2.5±0.7mm to 1.4±1.0mm, and the mean greatest tumor linear dimension decreased from 7.2±1.3mm to 4.7±3.6mm. No significant differences in visual improvement and tumor regression were found between the two groups.CONCLUSION: Overlapping-spot PDT under appropriate treatment parameters and strategies is as effective and safe as single-spot PDT for treating symptomatic circumscribed choroidal hemangioma. Improved or stabilized visual acuity was achieved as a result of tumor regression.

Portfolio optimization in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Min; Wu, Felix F.

2007-01-01

In a competitive electricity market, Generation companies (Gencos) face price risk and delivery risk that affect their profitability. Risk management is an important and essential part in the Genco's decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is considered. The problem of energy allocation between spot markets and bilateral contracts is formulated as a general portfolio optimization problem with a risk-free asset and n risky assets. Historical data of the PJM electricity market are used to demonstrate the approach. (author)

Projection of primary energy in electricity generation with evaluation of demand and supply of energy in the medium-term horizon (2020), long-term (2035) and very long term (2060)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mafra, Olga Y.; Alvim, Carlos Feu; Eidelman, Frida; Guimaraes, Leonam dos Santos

2013-01-01

The Global Energy demand and the participation of electricity in scenarios of medium (2020), long (2035) and very long (2060) terms are estimated. It is also evaluated the share of different primary energies in electricity generation and their availability in the country. Three economic scenarios were considered and different hypothesis regarding the participation of nuclear energy were analyzed. (author)

Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

2009-01-01

A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

On the effect of long-term electrical stimulation on three-dimensional cell cultures: Hen embryo brain spheroids

OpenAIRE

Uroukov, Ivan S; Bull, Larry

2008-01-01

A comprehensive dataset of multielectrode array recordings was collected from three-dimensional hen embryo brain cell cultures, termed spheroids, under long-term electrical stimulation. The aim is to understand the ongoing changes in the spiking activity under electrical stimulation within the lifetime of 14–72DIV of the neuronal networks contained therein. The spiking dynamics were analyzed and behavioral characteristics derived. Some effects on spiking patterns and exhaustion were followed ...

EDF - Activity and sustainable development 2011 - electricity, choices on the long term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-05-01

This publication notably contains a set of articles about choices on the long term related to electricity production and distribution. Different aspects are addressed: arbitration (the diversity of the French energy mix), grids (investments and evolution towards smart grids), electricity cost (for households and for industry), nuclear energy (actions and results regarding safety and availability, the EPR project), renewable energies, the design and construction of a dam (Nam Theun 2) in Thailand with an important human development dimension in the project, thermal energy (the future of flame-based power stations using gas or biomass for example), and EDF's commercial policy

Synthetic river flow time series generator for dispatch and spot price forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flores, R.A.

2007-01-01

Decision-making in electricity markets is complicated by uncertainties in demand growth, power supplies and fuel prices. In Peru, where the electrical power system is highly dependent on water resources at dams and river flows, hydrological uncertainties play a primary role in planning, price and dispatch forecast. This paper proposed a signal processing method for generating new synthetic river flow time series as a support for planning and spot market price forecasting. River flow time series are natural phenomena representing a continuous-time domain process. As an alternative synthetic representation of the original river flow time series, this proposed signal processing method preserves correlations, basic statistics and seasonality. It takes into account deterministic, periodic and non periodic components such as those due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The new synthetic time series has many correlations with the original river flow time series, rendering it suitable for possible replacement of the classical method of sorting historical river flow time series. As a dispatch and planning approach to spot pricing, the proposed method offers higher accuracy modeling by decomposing the signal into deterministic, periodic, non periodic and stochastic sub signals. 4 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs

Long-term power generation expansion planning with short-term demand response: Model, algorithms, implementation, and electricity policies

Science.gov (United States)

Lohmann, Timo

Electric sector models are powerful tools that guide policy makers and stakeholders. Long-term power generation expansion planning models are a prominent example and determine a capacity expansion for an existing power system over a long planning horizon. With the changes in the power industry away from monopolies and regulation, the focus of these models has shifted to competing electric companies maximizing their profit in a deregulated electricity market. In recent years, consumers have started to participate in demand response programs, actively influencing electricity load and price in the power system. We introduce a model that features investment and retirement decisions over a long planning horizon of more than 20 years, as well as an hourly representation of day-ahead electricity markets in which sellers of electricity face buyers. This combination makes our model both unique and challenging to solve. Decomposition algorithms, and especially Benders decomposition, can exploit the model structure. We present a novel method that can be seen as an alternative to generalized Benders decomposition and relies on dynamic linear overestimation. We prove its finite convergence and present computational results, demonstrating its superiority over traditional approaches. In certain special cases of our model, all necessary solution values in the decomposition algorithms can be directly calculated and solving mathematical programming problems becomes entirely obsolete. This leads to highly efficient algorithms that drastically outperform their programming problem-based counterparts. Furthermore, we discuss the implementation of all tailored algorithms and the challenges from a modeling software developer's standpoint, providing an insider's look into the modeling language GAMS. Finally, we apply our model to the Texas power system and design two electricity policies motivated by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's recently proposed CO2 emissions targets for the

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal)

2011-02-15

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catalao, J.P.S.; Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.

2011-01-01

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

SpotCaliper: fast wavelet-based spot detection with accurate size estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Püspöki, Zsuzsanna; Sage, Daniel; Ward, John Paul; Unser, Michael

2016-04-15

SpotCaliper is a novel wavelet-based image-analysis software providing a fast automatic detection scheme for circular patterns (spots), combined with the precise estimation of their size. It is implemented as an ImageJ plugin with a friendly user interface. The user is allowed to edit the results by modifying the measurements (in a semi-automated way), extract data for further analysis. The fine tuning of the detections includes the possibility of adjusting or removing the original detections, as well as adding further spots. The main advantage of the software is its ability to capture the size of spots in a fast and accurate way. http://bigwww.epfl.ch/algorithms/spotcaliper/ zsuzsanna.puspoki@epfl.ch Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The real-time price elasticity of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lijesen, Mark G.

2007-01-01

The real-time price elasticity of electricity contains important information on the demand response of consumers to the volatility of peak prices. Despite the importance, empirical estimates of the real-time elasticity are hardly available. This paper provides a quantification of the real-time relationship between total peak demand and spot market prices. We find a low value for the real-time price elasticity, which may partly be explained from the fact that not all users observe the spot market price. If we correct for this phenomenon, we find the elasticity to be fairly low for consumers currently active in the spot market. If this conclusion applies to all users, this would imply a limited scope for government intervention in supply security issues. (Author)

A mid-term, market-based power systems planning model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Dagoumas, Athanasios S.; Georgiadis, Michael C.; Papaioannou, George; Dikaiakos, Christos

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A mid-term Energy Planning along with a Unit Commitment model is developed. • The model identifies the optimum interconnection capacity. • Electricity interconnections affect the power mix and the day-ahead spot price. • Renewables’ penetration has impacts on the power reserves and the CO_2 emissions. • Energy policy and fuel pricing can have significant impacts on the power mix. - Abstract: This paper presents a generic Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model that integrates a Mid-term Energy Planning (MEP) model, which implements generation and transmission system planning at a yearly level, with a Unit Commitment (UC) model, which performs the simulation of the Day-Ahead Electricity Market. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of the Greek interconnected power system. The aim is to evaluate a critical project in the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) of the Independent Power Transmission System Operator S.A. (ADMIE), namely the electric interconnection of the Crete Island with the mainland electric system. The proposed modeling framework identifies the implementation (or not) of the interconnection of the Crete Island with the mainland electric system, as well as the optimum interconnection capacity. It also quantifies the effects on the Day-Ahead electricity market and on the energy mix. The paper demonstrates that the model can provide useful insights into the strategic and challenging decisions to be determined by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, by providing the optimal energy roadmap and management, as well as clear price signals on critical energy projects under real operating and design constraints.

Methodology and software to detect viral integration site hot-spots

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Modern gene therapy methods have limited control over where a therapeutic viral vector inserts into the host genome. Vector integration can activate local gene expression, which can cause cancer if the vector inserts near an oncogene. Viral integration hot-spots or 'common insertion sites' (CIS) are scrutinized to evaluate and predict patient safety. CIS are typically defined by a minimum density of insertions (such as 2-4 within a 30-100 kb region), which unfortunately depends on the total number of observed VIS. This is problematic for comparing hot-spot distributions across data sets and patients, where the VIS numbers may vary. Results We develop two new methods for defining hot-spots that are relatively independent of data set size. Both methods operate on distributions of VIS across consecutive 1 Mb 'bins' of the genome. The first method 'z-threshold' tallies the number of VIS per bin, converts these counts to z-scores, and applies a threshold to define high density bins. The second method 'BCP' applies a Bayesian change-point model to the z-scores to define hot-spots. The novel hot-spot methods are compared with a conventional CIS method using simulated data sets and data sets from five published human studies, including the X-linked ALD (adrenoleukodystrophy), CGD (chronic granulomatous disease) and SCID-X1 (X-linked severe combined immunodeficiency) trials. The BCP analysis of the human X-linked ALD data for two patients separately (774 and 1627 VIS) and combined (2401 VIS) resulted in 5-6 hot-spots covering 0.17-0.251% of the genome and containing 5.56-7.74% of the total VIS. In comparison, the CIS analysis resulted in 12-110 hot-spots covering 0.018-0.246% of the genome and containing 5.81-22.7% of the VIS, corresponding to a greater number of hot-spots as the data set size increased. Our hot-spot methods enable one to evaluate the extent of VIS clustering, and formally compare data sets in terms of hot-spot overlap. Finally, we show that the

Forecast of electric power market to short-term: a time series approcah

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, Roberio Neves Pelinca da.

1994-01-01

Three different time series approaches are analysed by this dissertation in the Brazilian electricity markert context. The aim is to compare the predictive performance of these approaches from a simulated exercise using the main series of the Brazilian consumption of electricity: Total Consumption, Industrial Consumption, Residencial Consumption and Commercial Consumption. One concludes that these appraches offer an enormous potentiality to the short-term planning system of the Electric Sector. Among the univariate models, the results for the analysed period point out that the forecast produced by Holt-Winter's models are more accurate than those produced by ARIMA and structural models. When explanatory variables are introduced in the last models, one can notice, in general, an improvement in the predictive performance of the models, although there is no sufficient evidence to consider that they are superior to Holt-Winter's models. The models with explanatory variables can be particularly useful, however, when one intends either to build scenarios or to study the effects of some variables on the consumption of electricity. (author). 73 refs., 19 figs., 13 tabs

Showing no spot sign is a strong predictor of independent living after intracerebral haemorrhage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Havsteen, Inger; Ovesen, Christian; Christensen, Anders F

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: A spot sign on computed tomography angiography (CTA) is a potentially strong predictor of poor outcome on ultra-early radiological imaging. The aim of this study was to assess the spot sign as a predictor of functional outcome at 3 months as well as long-term mortality, with a focus...... on the ability to identify patients with a spontaneous, acceptable outcome. METHODS: In a prospective, consecutive single-centre registry of acute stroke patients, we investigated patients with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) admitted within 4.5 h after symptom onset from April 2009 to January 2013....... The standard work-up in our centre included CTA for spot sign status, unless a contraindication was present. Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores were assessed at 3 months in the outpatient clinic or by telephone interviews. Long-term mortality was assessed by electronic chart follow-up for up to 1,500 days...

Roth spots in pernicious anaemia

OpenAIRE

Macauley, Mavin; Nag, Satyajit

2011-01-01

Roth spots are white-centred retinal haemorrhages, previously thought to be pathognomonic for subacute bacterial endocarditis. A number of other conditions can be associated with Roth spots. In this case, the authors describe the association of Roth spots and pernicious anaemia. This association has been rarely described in the medical literature. Correct diagnosis and treatment with intramuscular vitamin B12 injections resulted in complete resolution of the anaemia and Roth spots. The author...

Nest reuse by Northern Spotted Owls on the east slope of the Cascade Range, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

Stan G. Sovern; Margaret Taylor; Eric D. Forsman

2011-01-01

During a long-term demography study of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in the eastern Cascade Range of Washington State in 1989 to 2008, we documented 276 nests of Northern Spotted Owls at 73 different territories. Of these nests, 90.2% were on platforms, mostly in clumps of deformed limbs caused by dwarf mistletoe (primarily...

Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weron, Rafal

2008-01-01

In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)

Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weron, Rafal [Hugo Steinhaus Center for Stochastic Methods, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

2008-05-15

In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)

Probabilistic modelling of the high-pressure arc cathode spot displacement dynamic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coulombe, Sylvain

2003-01-01

A probabilistic modelling approach for the study of the cathode spot displacement dynamic in high-pressure arc systems is developed in an attempt to interpret the observed voltage fluctuations. The general framework of the model allows to define simple, probabilistic displacement rules, the so-called cathode spot dynamic rules, for various possible surface states (un-arced metal, arced, contaminated) and to study the resulting dynamic of the cathode spot displacements over one or several arc passages. The displacements of the type-A cathode spot (macro-spot) in a magnetically rotating arc using concentric electrodes made up of either clean or contaminated metal surfaces is considered. Experimental observations for this system revealed a 1/f -tilde1 signature in the frequency power spectrum (FPS) of the arc voltage for anchoring arc conditions on the cathode (e.g. clean metal surface), while it shows a 'white noise' signature for conditions favouring a smooth movement (e.g. oxide-contaminated cathode surface). Through an appropriate choice of the local probabilistic displacement rules, the model is able to correctly represent the dynamic behaviours of the type-A cathode spot, including the FPS for the arc elongation (i.e. voltage) and the arc erosion trace formation. The model illustrates that the cathode spot displacements between re-strikes can be seen as a diffusion process with a diffusion constant which depends on the surface structure. A physical interpretation for the jumping probability associated with the re-strike event is given in terms of the electron emission processes across dielectric contaminants present on the cathode surface

Assessing long-term effects of demand response policies in wholesale electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepeda, Mauricio; Saguan, Marcelo

2014-05-01

This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term issues in electricity markets in the presence of demand response development. Different policies have been implemented around the world aiming to develop demand response potential. Externalities, in particular the CO_2 externality, have been one of the key elements in the debate on the effectiveness of different policies regarding demand response development. Policy makers have several options to deal with this externality. The most direct one is to correct the externality by setting a CO_2 price at a level that corresponds to the cost to society of the corresponding CO_2 emissions. One alternative solution could be to subsidize carbon-free technologies as demand response. In this paper we examine potential long-term impacts of these two policies. We rely on a long-term market simulation model that characterizes expansion decisions in a competitive regime. We test for each policy two different scenarios regarding the possibility of internalization of the CO_2 externality. The results show that differences in development policies affect both investments and social costs in the wholesale electricity market and confirm previous findings that a market-driven development of demand response with the internalization of the CO_2 externality is the most efficient approach. (authors)

Electricity Market Optimization of Heat Pump Portfolio

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Biegel, Benjamin; Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom S.

2013-01-01

We consider a portfolio of domestic heat pumps controlled by an aggregator. The aggregator is able to adjust the consumption of the heat pumps without affecting the comfort in the houses and uses this ability to shift the main consumption to hours with low electricity prices. Further......, the aggregator is able to place upward and downward regulating bids in the regulating power market based on the consumption flexibility. A simulation is carried out based on data from a Danish domestic heat pump project, historical spot prices, regulating power prices, and spot price predictions. The simulations...

Variable-spot ion beam figuring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Lixiang; Qiu, Keqiang; Fu, Shaojun

2016-01-01

This paper introduces a new scheme of ion beam figuring (IBF), or rather variable-spot IBF, which is conducted at a constant scanning velocity with variable-spot ion beam collimated by a variable diaphragm. It aims at improving the reachability and adaptation of the figuring process within the limits of machine dynamics by varying the ion beam spot size instead of the scanning velocity. In contrast to the dwell time algorithm in the conventional IBF, the variable-spot IBF adopts a new algorithm, which consists of the scan path programming and the trajectory optimization using pattern search. In this algorithm, instead of the dwell time, a new concept, integral etching time, is proposed to interpret the process of variable-spot IBF. We conducted simulations to verify its feasibility and practicality. The simulation results indicate the variable-spot IBF is a promising alternative to the conventional approach.

New public dataset for spotting patterns in medieval document images

Science.gov (United States)

En, Sovann; Nicolas, Stéphane; Petitjean, Caroline; Jurie, Frédéric; Heutte, Laurent

2017-01-01

With advances in technology, a large part of our cultural heritage is becoming digitally available. In particular, in the field of historical document image analysis, there is now a growing need for indexing and data mining tools, thus allowing us to spot and retrieve the occurrences of an object of interest, called a pattern, in a large database of document images. Patterns may present some variability in terms of color, shape, or context, making the spotting of patterns a challenging task. Pattern spotting is a relatively new field of research, still hampered by the lack of available annotated resources. We present a new publicly available dataset named DocExplore dedicated to spotting patterns in historical document images. The dataset contains 1500 images and 1464 queries, and allows the evaluation of two tasks: image retrieval and pattern localization. A standardized benchmark protocol along with ad hoc metrics is provided for a fair comparison of the submitted approaches. We also provide some first results obtained with our baseline system on this new dataset, which show that there is room for improvement and that should encourage researchers of the document image analysis community to design new systems and submit improved results.

Application of laser spot cutting on spring contact probe for semiconductor package inspection

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Dongkyoung; Cho, Jungdon; Kim, Chan Ho; Lee, Seung Hwan

2017-12-01

A packaged semiconductor has to be electrically tested to make sure they are free of any manufacturing defects. The test interface, typically employed between a Printed Circuit Board and the semiconductor devices, consists of densely populated Spring Contact Probe (SCP). A standard SCP typically consists of a plunger, a barrel, and an internal spring. Among these components, plungers are manufactured by a stamping process. After stamping, plunger connecting arms need to be cut into pieces. Currently, mechanical cutting has been used. However, it may damage to the body of plungers due to the mechanical force engaged at the cutting point. Therefore, laser spot cutting is considered to solve this problem. The plunger arm is in the shape of a rectangular beam, 50 μm (H) × 90 μm (W). The plunger material used for this research is gold coated beryllium copper. Laser parameters, such as power and elapsed time, have been selected to study laser spot cutting. Laser material interaction characteristics such as a crater size, material removal zone, ablation depth, ablation threshold, and full penetration are observed. Furthermore, a carefully chosen laser parameter (Etotal = 1000mJ) to test feasibility of laser spot cutting are applied. The result show that laser spot cutting can be applied to cut SCP.

Anode spot patterns and fluctuations in an atmospheric-pressure glow discharge in helium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arkhipenko, V I; Safronau, Y A; Simonchik, L V; Tsuprik, I M; Callegari, Th

2013-01-01

Oscillations of the main parameters (voltage on electrodes, potential, light intensity and discharge current) in a dc atmospheric-pressure glow discharge in helium are investigated in a range of currents from milliamperes to several amperes. It is established that these oscillations are connected with the existence of anode spots. In the case of a single spot, fluctuations of discharge light intensity are observed when the supply voltage exceeds the breakdown voltage for the interelectrode gap. At the same time, voltage fluctuations have the form of relaxation oscillations with a frequency that depends on the electrical parameters of the external circuit. With an increase in discharge gap and current, the number of spots increases. They form a stable structure, and the fluctuations of current and voltage stay harmonic. The brightness of the spots seems to be determined by the frequency of their blinking. The amplitude of current fluctuation increases with the increase in discharge current and can be up to 15% of its average value. The frequency of current oscillations, which is about 0.75 MHz at a current of 0.5 A, depends weakly on the discharge gap (it varies within ±10% for the gap interval from 1 to 10 mm). The oscillation frequency is maximal (about 0.85 MHz) at a current of about 0.4 A. At higher currents (2–4 A, depending on the discharge gap), the fluctuations disappear when a contraction of the anode region into one anode spot occurs. (paper)

Spot volume exceeds 2 million lbs (again); restricted price hits $10/lb

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1995-01-01

This article is the January 1995 uranium market summary. Volume on the spot concentrates market exceeded 2 million lbs equivalent for the second consecutive month. Six deals took place; four in the spot concentrates market, one in the conversion market, and one in the enrichment market. No deals took place in the medium or long-term market. The upper end of the restricted price range reached $10.00 per lb U3O8, its highest level since December 1993. The lower end of the restricted price range strengthened to $9.75. The lower end of the spot conversion price range strengthed to $5.70 per kg U, and SWU prices firmed to the $75.00 to $87.00 level

[Study on Hexagonal Super-Lattice Pattern with Light Spot and Dim Spot in Dielectric Barrier Discharge by Optical Emission Spectra].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ying; Dong, Li-fang; Niu, Xue-jiao; Zhang, Chao

2016-02-01

The hexagonal super-lattice pattern composed of the light spot and the dim spot is firstly observed and investigated in the discharge of gas mixture of air and argon by using the dielectric barrier discharge device with double water electrodes. It is found that the dim spot is located at the center of its surrounding three light spots by observing the discharge image. Obviously, the brightness of the light spot and the dim spot are different, which indicates that the plasma states of the light spot and the dim spot may be different. The optical emission spectrum method is used to further study the several plasma parameters of the light spot and the dim spot in different argon content. The emission spectra of the N₂ second positive band (C³IIu --> B³IIg) are measured, from which the molecule vibration temperatures of the light spot and the dim spot are calculated. Based on the relative intensity ratio of the line at 391.4 nm and the N₂ line at 394.1 nm, the average electron energies of the light spot and the dim spot are investigated. The broadening of spectral line 696.57 nm (2P₂-1S₅) is used to study the electron densities of the light spot and the dim spot. The experiment shows that the molecule vibration temperature, average electron energy and the electron density of the dim spot are higher than those of the light spot in the same argon content. The molecule vibration temperature and electron density of the light spot and dim spot increase with the argon content increasing from 70% to 95%, while average electron energies of the light spot and dim spot decrease gradually. The short-exposure image recorded by a high speed video camera shows that the dim spot results from the surface discharges (SDs). The surface discharge induced by the volume discharge (VD) has the decisive effect on the formation of the dim spot. The experiment above plays an important role in studying the formation mechanism of the hexagonal super-lattice pattern with light spot and

Numerical optimisation in spot detector design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Heijden, Ferdinand; Apperloo, W.; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan

1997-01-01

Spots are image details resulting from objects, the projections of which are so small that the inner structure of these objects cannot be resolved from their image. Spot detectors are image operators aiming at the detection and localisation of spots in the image. Most spot detectors can be tuned

A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Ortlieb, Sebastian; Fichtner, Wolf

2013-01-01

Wind power generation and its impacts on electricity prices has strongly increased in the EU. Therefore, appropriate mark-to-market evaluation of new investments in wind power and energy storage plants should consider the fluctuant generation of wind power and uncertain electricity prices, which are affected by wind power feed-in (WPF). To gain the input data for WPF and electricity prices, simulation models, such as econometric models, can serve as a data basis. This paper describes a combined modeling approach for the simulation of WPF series and electricity prices considering the impacts of WPF on prices based on an autoregressive approach. Thereby WPF series are firstly simulated for each hour of the year and integrated in the electricity price model to generate an hourly resolved price series for a year. The model results demonstrate that the WPF model delivers satisfying WPF series and that the extended electricity price model considering WPF leads to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation compared to a model version without WPF effects. As the simulated series of WPF and electricity prices also contain the correlation between both series, market evaluation of wind power technologies can be accurately done based on these series. - Highlights: • Wind power feed-in can be directly simulated with stochastic processes. • Non-linear relationship between wind power feed-in and electricity prices. • Price reduction effect of wind power feed-in depends on the actual load. • Considering wind power feed-in effects improves the electricity price simulation. • Combined modeling of both parameters delivers a data basis for evaluation tools

Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets

OpenAIRE

Ziel, Florian; Steinert, Rick; Husmann, Sven

2015-01-01

In our paper we analyze the relationship between the day-ahead electricity price of the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) and other day-ahead electricity prices in Europe. We focus on markets, which settle their prices after the EXAA, which enables traders to include the EXAA price into their calculations. For each market we employ econometric models to incorporate the EXAA price and compare them with their counterparts without the price of the Austrian exchange. By employing a forecasting study...

Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

OpenAIRE

Siddiqui, Afzal S.

2003-01-01

The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium mo...

9 CFR 149.4 - Spot audit.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot audit. 149.4 Section 149.4... LIVESTOCK IMPROVEMENT VOLUNTARY TRICHINAE CERTIFICATION PROGRAM § 149.4 Spot audit. (a) In addition to regularly scheduled site audits, certified production sites will be subject to spot audits. (1) Random spot...

Structural and behavioural foundations of competitive electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, D.W.

2004-01-01

This chapter presents a basic introduction to price formation in the new electricity markets and examines power system economics and electricity market liberalisation. Topics discussed include wholesale electricity prices, the case of gas, the effect of the instantaneous nature of the electricity product, spot markets for electricity, and the ability of industrial companies to influence prices. Market fundamentals are reviewed, and institutional reform and strategic evolution are explored. British daily average power and gas prices, monthly forward prices on the British power and gas markets, seasonal demand profile, electricity demand UK 98/00, annual cost of each plant, price formation in 1997, and monthly demand and wholesale prices in England and Wales 1990-1998 are among the graphs provided

Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

2004-01-01

One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

Spot formation of radiation particles by electrochemical etching

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nozaki, Tetsuya

1999-01-01

An electrochemical etching (ECE) spot formation from the top of chemical etching (CE) spot was confirmed by a series of experiments. One of polycarbonate (Iupilon) could not make the spot, because ECE spot had grown up before the microscope confirming the CE spot. Clear CEC spots by α-ray and neutron were found on Harzlas and Baryotrak, both improvements of CR-39. Under the same etching conditions, the growth of ECE spot on Harzlas was more rapid than Baryotrak, but both spots were almost the same. All CE spot by α-ray produced the CEC spots, but a part of CE circle spot by neutron formed them. (S.Y.)

Stabilization of electron beam spot size by self bias potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwan, T.J.T.; Moir, D.C.; Snell, C.M.; Kang, M.

1998-01-01

In high resolution flash x-ray imaging technology the electric field developed between the electron beam and the converter target is large enough to draw ions from the target surface. The ions provide fractional neutralization and cause the electron beam to focus radially inward, and the focal point subsequently moves upstream due to the expansion of the ion column. A self-bias target concept is proposed and verified via computer simulation that the electron charge deposited on the target can generate an electric potential, which can effectively limit the ion motion and thereby stabilize the growth of the spot size. A target chamber using the self bias target concept was designed and tested in the Integrated Test Stand (ITS). The authors have obtained good agreement between computer simulation and experiment

Managing emerging threats to spotted owls

Science.gov (United States)

Ho Yi Wan; Joseph L. Ganey; Christina D. Vojta; Samuel A. Cushman

2018-01-01

The 3 spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) subspecies in North America (i.e., northern spotted owl [S. o. caurina], California spotted owl [S. o. occidentalis], Mexican spotted owl [S. o. lucida]) have all experienced population declines over the past century due to habitat loss and fragmentation from logging. Now, the emerging influences of climate change, high-severity...

Computational Prediction of Hot Spot Residues

Science.gov (United States)

Morrow, John Kenneth; Zhang, Shuxing

2013-01-01

Most biological processes involve multiple proteins interacting with each other. It has been recently discovered that certain residues in these protein-protein interactions, which are called hot spots, contribute more significantly to binding affinity than others. Hot spot residues have unique and diverse energetic properties that make them challenging yet important targets in the modulation of protein-protein complexes. Design of therapeutic agents that interact with hot spot residues has proven to be a valid methodology in disrupting unwanted protein-protein interactions. Using biological methods to determine which residues are hot spots can be costly and time consuming. Recent advances in computational approaches to predict hot spots have incorporated a myriad of features, and have shown increasing predictive successes. Here we review the state of knowledge around protein-protein interactions, hot spots, and give an overview of multiple in silico prediction techniques of hot spot residues. PMID:22316154

Trading electricity in the Nordic countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

An open market for electric power in the Nordic countries will require extensive common solutions of a range of economic, technical and political problems as a consequence of the natural monopoly of the transmission and distribution grid, and the need for supply reliability. The main objective is to establish and effective framework for competition in buying and selling electricity, both nationally and in a Nordic context, and to secure optimal resource allocation. The key participants are owners of the high-voltage grid and of the international grid connections. The objective should be to develop a 'point-tariff' system, a system for effective handling of bottlenecks, and an optimisation of further developments in the common high-voltage grid. Effective routines for measurement of the trade across the borders should be established. Institutions for power-trading should be developed, such as organised spot markets which should be established in Sweden and Finland. Transaction costs for trade between the spot markets in the different countries should be low. Until spot markets are established in Sweden and Finland, Statnett Marked should be made available for Sweden and Finish consumers and producers. Abuse of a domimant market position in a common market should be firmly discouraged. Different competition policies in the Nordic countries may give participants unequal possibilities to compete. (AB)

Poisson Spot with Magnetic Levitation

Science.gov (United States)

Hoover, Matthew; Everhart, Michael; D'Arruda, Jose

2010-01-01

In this paper we describe a unique method for obtaining the famous Poisson spot without adding obstacles to the light path, which could interfere with the effect. A Poisson spot is the interference effect from parallel rays of light diffracting around a solid spherical object, creating a bright spot in the center of the shadow.

Time Resolved X-Ray Spot Size Diagnostic

CERN Document Server

Richardson, Roger; Falabella, Steven; Guethlein, Gary; Raymond, Brett; Weir, John

2005-01-01

A diagnostic was developed for the determination of temporal history of an X-ray spot. A pair of thin (0.5 mm) slits image the x-ray spot to a fast scintillator which is coupled to a fast detector, thus sampling a slice of the X-Ray spot. Two other scintillator/detectors are used to determine the position of the spot and total forward dose. The slit signal is normalized to the dose and the resulting signal is analyzed to get the spot size. The position information is used to compensate for small changes due to spot motion and misalignment. The time resolution of the diagnostic is about 1 ns and measures spots from 0.5 mm to over 3 mm. The theory and equations used to calculate spot size and position are presented, as well as data. The calculations assume a symmetric, Gaussian spot. The spot data is generated by the ETA II accelerator, a 2kA, 5.5 MeV, 60ns electron beam focused on a Tantalum target. The spot generated is typically about 1 mm FWHM. Comparisons are made to an X-ray pinhole camera which images th...

A spot laser modulated resistance switching effect observed on n-type Mn-doped ZnO/SiO2/Si structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Jing; Tu, Xinglong; Yin, Guilin; Wang, Hui; He, Dannong

2017-11-09

In this work, a spot laser modulated resistance switching (RS) effect is firstly observed on n-type Mn-doped ZnO/SiO 2 /Si structure by growing n-type Mn-doped ZnO film on Si wafer covered with a 1.2 nm native SiO 2 , which has a resistivity in the range of 50-80 Ω∙cm. The I-V curve obtained in dark condition evidences the structure a rectifying junction, which is further confirmed by placing external bias. Compared to the resistance state modulated by electric field only in dark (without illumination), the switching voltage driving the resistance state of the structure from one state to the other, shows clear shift under a spot laser illumination. Remarkably, the switching voltage shift shows a dual dependence on the illumination position and power of the spot laser. We ascribe this dual dependence to the electric filed produced by the redistribution of photo-generated carriers, which enhance the internal barrier of the hetero-junction. A complete theoretical analysis based on junction current and diffusion equation is presented. The dependence of the switching voltage on spot laser illumination makes the n-type Mn-doped ZnO/SiO 2 /Si structure sensitive to light, which thus allows for the integration of an extra functionality in the ZnO-based photoelectric device.

Near-term hybrid vehicle program, phase 1. Appendix B: Design trade-off studies. [various hybrid/electric power train configurations and electrical and mechanical drive-line components

Science.gov (United States)

1979-01-01

The relative attractiveness of various hybrid/electric power train configurations and electrical and mechanical drive-line components was studied. The initial screening was concerned primarily with total vehicle weight and economic factors and identified the hybrid power train combinations which warranted detailed evaluation over various driving cycles. This was done using a second-by-second vehicle simulation program which permitted the calculations of fuel economy, electricity usage, and emissions as a function of distance traveled in urban and highway driving. Power train arrangement possibilities were examined in terms of their effect on vehicle handling, safety, serviceability, and passenger comfort. A dc electric drive system utilizing a separately excited motor with field control and battery switching was selected for the near term hybrid vehicle. Hybrid vehicle simulations showed that for the first 30 mi (the electric range of the vehicle) in urban driving, the fuel economy was 80 mpg using a gasoline engine and 100 mpg using a diesel engine. In urban driving the hybrid would save about 75% of the fuel used by the conventional vehicle and in combined urban/highway driving the fuel saving is about 50%.

Electricity and long term supply security. Search for power market respectful legal instruments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.; Pignon, V.

2006-01-01

This paper, also published in 'ISMEA Economie et Societe' Journal (Energy series 2006, no.10), deals with theoretical aspects of long term electricity supply security. Market prices and contractual arrangements on the physical and financial electricity markets do not allow to create sufficient incentives to invest in adequate capacity for guaranteeing the appropriate level of supply in every circumstance. The long term security of supply by capacity adequacy must be conceptualized as a collective good. Alternative solutions to reach capacity adequacy which have been adopted in different markets are successively considered: public procurement of strategic reserves, capacity payment, capacity obligation with exchangeable rights. Each one presents theoretical limits and practical drawbacks when implemented in complex markets. That brings out the interest of mechanism of centralized auctions for forward capacity contracts (or reliability options); it combines controls by quantity and by price while stabilizing investment in peak power plants and is compatible with energy and reserves markets, that is not the case of the three other instruments. (authors)

Optimal Day-ahead Charging Scheduling of Electric Vehicles through an Aggregative Game Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Huang, Shaojun

2017-01-01

The electric vehicle (EV) market has been growing rapidly around the world. With large scale deployment of EVs in power systems, both the grid and EV owners will benefit if the flexible demand of EV charging is properly managed through the electricity market. When EV charging demand is considerable...... in a grid, it will impact spot prices in the electricity market and consequently influence the charging scheduling itself. The interaction between the spot prices and the EV demand needs to be considered in the EV charging scheduling, otherwise it will lead to a higher charging cost. A day-ahead EV charging...... scheduling based on an aggregative game model is proposed in this paper. The impacts of the EV demand on the electricity prices are formulated with the game model in the scheduling considering possible actions of other EVs. The existence and uniqueness of the pure strategy Nash equilibrium are proved...

The electric dipole moment of the deuteron from the QCD {theta}-term

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bsaisou, J.; Liebig, S. [Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institut fuer Kernphysik and Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Juelich (Germany); Hanhart, C.; Nogga, A.; Wirzba, A. [Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institut fuer Kernphysik and Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Juelich (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute for Advanced Simulation, Juelich (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich, JARA - Forces And Matter Experiments, Juelich (Germany); Meissner, U.G. [Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institut fuer Kernphysik and Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Juelich (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute for Advanced Simulation, Juelich (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich, JARA - Forces And Matter Experiments, Juelich (Germany); Universitaet Bonn, Helmholtz-Institut fuer Strahlen- und Kernphysik, Bonn (Germany); Universitaet Bonn, Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics, Bonn (Germany)

2013-03-15

The two-nucleon contributions to the electric dipole moment (EDM) of the deuteron, induced by the QCD {theta}-term, are calculated in the framework of effective field theory up-to-and-including next-to-next-to-leading order. In particular we find for the difference of the deuteron EDM and the sum of proton and neutron EDM induced by the QCD {theta}-term a value of (- 5.4 {+-}3.9) anti {theta} x 10{sup -} {sup 4} e fm. The by far dominant uncertainty comes from the CP- and isospin-violating {pi}NN coupling constant. (orig.)

New types of contracts. Part 2. The natural gas spot market. Many options, many constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Gelder, J.W.

1999-01-01

In two articles, new types of contracts such as swaps, futures and spot contracts are surveyed. How far has the Dutch liberalised market developed in this field? This article focuses on the spot market for gas, whilst in the previous issue attention was paid to the electricity market. Bilateral spot contracts have been used in the Netherlands for years and years. The only gas exchange in Europe, the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), was established in London, UK, at the end of 1994. This is a screen exchange, just like the APX (Amsterdam Power Exchange), where natural gas traders can enter into various types of contracts. An organised gas exchange has as yet not been established on the continent. The most suitable candidate is Zeebrugge in Belgium, where all the large players are represented. To do so, however, more transparency is required on the transmission market so that supply and demand can find each other quickly at standard conditions

A New Two-Stage Approach to Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragan Tasić

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In the deregulated energy market, the accuracy of load forecasting has a significant effect on the planning and operational decision making of utility companies. Electric load is a random non-stationary process influenced by a number of factors which make it difficult to model. To achieve better forecasting accuracy, a wide variety of models have been proposed. These models are based on different mathematical methods and offer different features. This paper presents a new two-stage approach for short-term electrical load forecasting based on least-squares support vector machines. With the aim of improving forecasting accuracy, one more feature was added to the model feature set, the next day average load demand. As this feature is unknown for one day ahead, in the first stage, forecasting of the next day average load demand is done and then used in the model in the second stage for next day hourly load forecasting. The effectiveness of the presented model is shown on the real data of the ISO New England electricity market. The obtained results confirm the validity advantage of the proposed approach.

A new cascade NN based method to short-term load forecast in deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kouhi, Sajjad; Keynia, Farshid

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We are proposed a new hybrid cascaded NN based method and WT to short-term load forecast in deregulated electricity market. • An efficient preprocessor consist of normalization and shuffling of signals is presented. • In order to select the best inputs, a two-stage feature selection is presented. • A new cascaded structure consist of three cascaded NNs is used as forecaster. - Abstract: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion in efficient operation of power systems. The electricity load is a nonlinear signal with time dependent behavior. The area of electricity load forecasting has still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. To improve the accuracy of prediction, a new hybrid forecast strategy based on cascaded neural network is proposed for STLF. This method is consists of wavelet transform, an intelligent two-stage feature selection, and cascaded neural network. The feature selection is used to remove the irrelevant and redundant inputs. The forecast engine is composed of three cascaded neural network (CNN) structure. This cascaded structure can be efficiently extract input/output mapping function of the nonlinear electricity load data. Adjustable parameters of the intelligent feature selection and CNN is fine-tuned by a kind of cross-validation technique. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New York electricity markets. It is concluded from the result, the proposed algorithm is a robust forecast method

The functioning of the electricity, CO2 and natural gas wholesale markets in 2011-2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-11-01

term supply contracts are indexed. The discrepancy between prices on wholesale gas markets on the one hand and prices of oil products on the other yet again widened as from the second half of 2011. In this context, volumes traded continued to grow and reached 400 TWh in 2011. In the first half of 2012, the development of wholesale electricity and gas markets lost momentum, as volumes traded fell sharply on term contracts markets in particular. The cold snap of February 2012 also resulted in price spikes on electricity and gas spot markets. The CRE led investigations into these market episodes and published its conclusions in the decisions of 10 May and 26 June 2012. On the CO 2 market lastly, the 2011 price of the EUA fell by 10% in relation to 2010, to euro 13/t. In the first half of 2012, the price continued to fall and reached euro 7/t at the end of June 2012, in a context of excess supply of allowances. The possibility of banking allowances from phase II to phase III which will begin on 1 January 2013 constitutes the main factor to prevent a price collapse by the end of 2012. Given the price levels for coal and gas, the weakness of CO 2 price encourages European industrials to produce coal-based electricity despite the comparative advantage of the gas sector in terms of CO 2 emissions. The report also includes details about the data collection of CO 2 transactions carried out by CRE among market participants who fell within the scope in 2011

Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

Science.gov (United States)

... with facebook share with twitter share with linkedin Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever Credit: CDC A male cayenne tick, Amblyomma cajennense, ... and New Mexico. Why Is the Study of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever a Priority for NIAID? Tickborne diseases are becoming ...

Prediction of hottest spot temperature in power transformer windings with non-directed and directed oil-forced cooling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taghikhani, M.A.; Gholami, A. [Electrical Engineering Department, Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Narmak, 16846 Tehran (Iran)

2009-09-15

Power transformer outages have a considerable economic impact on the operation of an electrical network. One of the most important parameters governing transformer's life expectancy is the hottest spot temperature (HST) value. The classical approach has been to consider the hottest spot temperature as the sum of the ambient temperature, the top-oil temperature rise, and the hottest spot to top-oil temperature gradient. The authors proposed a numerical method based on heat transfer theory using the finite element method and they only needed to solve heat conduction equation. The transformer selected for simulation was a 32 MVA transformer with non-directed oil-forced (NDOF) cooling and directed oil-forced (DOF) cooling. A comparison of the authors results with those obtained from finite integral transform and experimental test confirms the validity and accuracy of the proposed method. (author)

Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Herui Cui

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Short-term electric load is significantly affected by weather, especially the temperature effects in summer. External factors can result in mutation structures in load data. Under the influence of the external temperature factors, city electric load cannot be easily forecasted as usual. This research analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily temperature in city. An improved ARIMAX model is proposed in this paper to deal with the mutation data structures. It is found that information amount of the improved ARIMAX model is smaller than that of the classic method and its relative error is less than AR, ARMA and Sigmoid-Function ANN models. The forecasting results are more accurately fitted. This improved model is highly valuable when dealing with mutation data structure in the field of load forecasting. And it is also an effective technique in forecasting electric load with temperature effects.

On Long-Term Transmission Rights in the Nordic Electricity Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petr Spodniak

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In vein with the new energy market rules drafted in the EU this paper presents and discusses two contract types for hedging the risks connected to long-term transmission rights, the financial transmission right (FTR and the electricity price area differentials (EPAD that are used in the Nordic electricity markets. The possibility to replicate the FTR contracts with a combination of EPAD contracts is presented and discussed. Based on historical evidence and empirical analysis of ten Nordic interconnectors and twenty bidding areas, we investigate the pricing accuracy of the replicated FTR contracts by quantifying ex-post forward risk premia. The results show that the majority of the studied FTR contain a negative risk premium, especially the monthly and the quarterly contracts. Reverse flow (unnatural pricing was identified for two interconnectors. From a theoretical policy point of view the results imply that it may be possible to continue with the EPAD-based system by using EPAD Combos in the Nordic countries, even if FTR contracts would prevail elsewhere in the EU. In practice the pricing of bi-directional EPAD contracts is more complex and may not always be very efficient. The efficiency of the EPAD market structure should be discussed from various points of view before accepting their status quo as a replacement for FTRs in the Nordic electricity markets.

Analysis of microstructure-dependent shock dissipation and hot-spot formation in granular metalized explosive

Science.gov (United States)

Chakravarthy, Sunada; Gonthier, Keith A.

2016-07-01

Variations in the microstructure of granular explosives (i.e., particle packing density, size, shape, and composition) can affect their shock sensitivity by altering thermomechanical fields at the particle-scale during pore collapse within shocks. If the deformation rate is fast, hot-spots can form, ignite, and interact, resulting in burn at the macro-scale. In this study, a two-dimensional finite and discrete element technique is used to simulate and examine shock-induced dissipation and hot-spot formation within low density explosives (68%-84% theoretical maximum density (TMD)) consisting of large ensembles of HMX (C4H8N8O8) and aluminum (Al) particles (size ˜ 60 -360 μm). Emphasis is placed on identifying how the inclusion of Al influences effective shock dissipation and hot-spot fields relative to equivalent ensembles of neat/pure HMX for shocks that are sufficiently strong to eliminate porosity. Spatially distributed hot-spot fields are characterized by their number density and area fraction enabling their dynamics to be described in terms of nucleation, growth, and agglomeration-dominated phases with increasing shock strength. For fixed shock particle speed, predictions indicate that decreasing packing density enhances shock dissipation and hot-spot formation, and that the inclusion of Al increases dissipation relative to neat HMX by pressure enhanced compaction resulting in fewer but larger HMX hot-spots. Ensembles having bimodal particle sizes are shown to significantly affect hot-spot dynamics by altering the spatial distribution of hot-spots behind shocks.

The stability and slow dynamics of spot patterns in the 2D Brusselator model: The effect of open systems and heterogeneities

Science.gov (United States)

Tzou, J. C.; Ward, M. J.

2018-06-01

Spot patterns, whereby the activator field becomes spatially localized near certain dynamically-evolving discrete spatial locations in a bounded multi-dimensional domain, is a common occurrence for two-component reaction-diffusion (RD) systems in the singular limit of a large diffusivity ratio. In previous studies of 2-D localized spot patterns for various specific well-known RD systems, the domain boundary was assumed to be impermeable to both the activator and inhibitor, and the reaction-kinetics were assumed to be spatially uniform. As an extension of this previous theory, we use formal asymptotic methods to study the existence, stability, and slow dynamics of localized spot patterns for the singularly perturbed 2-D Brusselator RD model when the domain boundary is only partially impermeable, as modeled by an inhomogeneous Robin boundary condition, or when there is an influx of inhibitor across the domain boundary. In our analysis, we will also allow for the effect of a spatially variable bulk feed term in the reaction kinetics. By applying our extended theory to the special case of one-spot patterns and ring patterns of spots inside the unit disk, we provide a detailed analysis of the effect on spot patterns of these three different sources of heterogeneity. In particular, when there is an influx of inhibitor across the boundary of the unit disk, a ring pattern of spots can become pinned to a ring-radius closer to the domain boundary. Under a Robin condition, a quasi-equilibrium ring pattern of spots is shown to exhibit a novel saddle-node bifurcation behavior in terms of either the inhibitor diffusivity, the Robin constant, or the ambient background concentration. A spatially variable bulk feed term, with a concentrated source of "fuel" inside the domain, is shown to yield a saddle-node bifurcation structure of spot equilibria, which leads to qualitatively new spot-pinning behavior. Results from our asymptotic theory are validated from full numerical

Laser Pyrometer For Spot Temperature Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Elleman, D. D.; Allen, J. L.; Lee, M. C.

1988-01-01

Laser pyrometer makes temperature map by scanning measuring spot across target. Scanning laser pyrometer passively measures radiation emitted by scanned spot on target and calibrated by similar passive measurement on blackbody of known temperature. Laser beam turned on for active measurements of reflectances of target spot and reflectance standard. From measurements, temperature of target spot inferred. Pyrometer useful for non-contact measurement of temperature distributions in processing of materials.

Material influence on hot spot distribution in the nanoparticle heterodimer on film

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Fang; Huang, Yingzhou; Wei, Hua; Wang, Shuxia; Zeng, Xiping; Cao, Wenbin; Wen, Weijia

2018-04-01

The metal nanoparticle aggregated on film, as an effective plasma enhancement pathway, has been widely used in various surface plasmon-related fields. In this study, the hot spots on the metal nanoparticle dimer composed of different materials (Agsbnd Au, Agsbnd Pd, and Agsbnd Cu) on metal (Au) film were investigated with finite element method. Based on the results, the hot spot distribution affected by the material can be confirmed by the electric field distribution of the metal nanoparticle dimer on the film. The aggregation effects of Au and Ag nanoparticles in Ausbnd Ag dimer system are not significant. However, for the Pdsbnd Ag dimer system, the hot spot aggregation effect is slightly larger than that of the Pd nanoparticle under the Ag nanoparticle. Besides, the non-uniform hot spots would bring about the light focusing phenomenon that the light intensity under Ag nanoparticle is almost 100 times greater than that under Cu nanoparticle in Agsbnd Cu dimer system. These results were further confirmed by the surface charge distribution, and analyzed based on the plasmonic hybridization theory. The data about the nanoparticle dimer on the dielectric (Si) film demonstrate the importance of induced image charges on the film surface in such a light focusing phenomenon. Our findings can enhance the understanding of the surface plasmon coupling in different materials, which may have great application prospects in surface plasmon-related fields, such as SERS, plasmonic enhanced solar cell, and plasmonic sensoring, etc.

Bilateral electric energy contracts: return and risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gunn, Laura K.; Silva, Elisa B.; Correia, Paulo B. [State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). College of Mechanical Engineering

2009-07-01

In Brazil electricity is traded through three segments: the spot market that balances offer and demand, with prices calculated by a cost-based computational model; the regulated market , where prices are settled in public auctions, and the free market for bilateral contracts. As spot and regulated market prices are public information, a seller is able to calculate his opportunity price to trade a bilateral contract in the free market by using the non-arbitrage principle. Thus, the seller searches the price of a bilateral contract in the free market that balances his/her revenues with the value expected in case it were negotiated in the regulated and the spot market. Besides the expected revenue, the seller may also consider the CVaR to measure the risk of her/his bilateral contract in the free market. So this paper develops a binomial lattice approach to price bilateral contracts in the free market, considering the seller's opportunity of negotiations in both regulated and spot markets, and measuring the contract risk directly. (author)

Assessing the impact of wind generation on wholesale prices and generator dispatch in the Australian National Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forrest, Sam; MacGill, Iain

2013-01-01

Growing climate change and energy security concerns are driving major wind energy deployment in electricity industries around the world. Despite its many advantages, growing penetrations of this highly variable and somewhat unpredictable energy source pose new challenges for electricity industry operation. One issue receiving growing attention is the so-called ‘merit order effect’ of wind generation in wholesale electricity markets. Wind has very low operating costs and therefore tends to displace higher cost conventional generation from market dispatch, reducing both wholesale prices and conventional plant outputs. This paper extends the current literature on this effect through an empirical study employing a range of econometric techniques to quantify the impacts of growing wind penetrations in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). The results suggest that wind is having a marked impact on spot market prices and, while wind is primarily offsetting higher operating cost gas generation, it is now also significantly reducing dispatch of emissions intensive brown coal generation. Great care needs to be taken in extrapolating these results to longer-term implications, however, the study does propose a methodology for assessing this effect, highlights the impacts that wind is already having on NEM outcomes and suggests promising directions for future research. - Highlights: ► Proposes methodologies to estimate short run impact of wind on electricity markets. ► Quantifies the merit order effect of wind generation on wholesale spot price. ► Wind is found to be significantly effecting gas fired generation. ► Evidence is found for wind having a notable impact on baseload coal generation. ► Discusses the implications for development of wind generation in Australia

Electrical Rating of Concentrated Photovoltaic (CPV) Systems: Long-Term Performance Analysis and Comparison to Conventional PV Systems

KAUST Repository

Burhan, Muhammad

2016-02-29

The dynamic nature of meteorological data and the commercial availability of diverse photovoltaic systems, ranging from single-junction silicon-based PV panels to concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems utilizing multi-junction solar cells and a two-axis solar tracker, demand a simple but accurate methodology for energy planners and PV system designers to understand the economic feasibility of photovoltaic or renewable energy systems. In this paper, an electrical rating methodology is proposed that provides a common playing field for planners, consumers and PV manufacturers to evaluate the long-term performance of photovoltaic systems, as long-term electricity rating is deemed to be a quick and accurate method to evaluate economic viability and determine plant sizes and photovoltaic system power production. A long-term performance analysis based on monthly and electrical ratings (in kWh/m2/year) of two developed CPV prototypes, the Cassegrain mini dish and Fresnel lens CPVs with triple-junction solar cells operating under the meteorological conditions of Singapore, is presented in this paper. Performances are compared to other conventional photovoltaic systems.

Resistance Spot Welding of dissimilar Steels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ladislav Kolařík

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the properties of resistance spot welds between low carbon steel and austenitic CrNi stainless steel. The thickness of the welded dissimilar materials was 2 mm. A DeltaSpot welding gun with a process tape was used for welding the dissimilar steels. Resistance spot welds were produced with various welding parameters (welding currents ranging from 7 to 8 kA. Light microscopy, microhardness measurements across the welded joints, and EDX analysis were used to evaluate the quality of the resistance spot welds. The results confirm the applicability of DeltaSpot welding for this combination of materials.

Integrated beam orientation and scanning-spot optimization in intensity-modulated proton therapy for brain and unilateral head and neck tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Wenbo; O'Connor, Daniel; Nguyen, Dan; Yu, Victoria Y; Ruan, Dan; Dong, Lei; Sheng, Ke

2018-04-01

Intensity-Modulated Proton Therapy (IMPT) is the state-of-the-art method of delivering proton radiotherapy. Previous research has been mainly focused on optimization of scanning spots with manually selected beam angles. Due to the computational complexity, the potential benefit of simultaneously optimizing beam orientations and spot pattern could not be realized. In this study, we developed a novel integrated beam orientation optimization (BOO) and scanning-spot optimization algorithm for intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT). A brain chordoma and three unilateral head-and-neck patients with a maximal target size of 112.49 cm 3 were included in this study. A total number of 1162 noncoplanar candidate beams evenly distributed across 4π steradians were included in the optimization. For each candidate beam, the pencil-beam doses of all scanning spots covering the PTV and a margin were calculated. The beam angle selection and spot intensity optimization problem was formulated to include three terms: a dose fidelity term to penalize the deviation of PTV and OAR doses from ideal dose distribution; an L1-norm sparsity term to reduce the number of active spots and improve delivery efficiency; a group sparsity term to control the number of active beams between 2 and 4. For the group sparsity term, convex L2,1-norm and nonconvex L2,1/2-norm were tested. For the dose fidelity term, both quadratic function and linearized equivalent uniform dose (LEUD) cost function were implemented. The optimization problem was solved using the Fast Iterative Shrinkage-Thresholding Algorithm (FISTA). The IMPT BOO method was tested on three head-and-neck patients and one skull base chordoma patient. The results were compared with IMPT plans created using column generation selected beams or manually selected beams. The L2,1-norm plan selected spatially aggregated beams, indicating potential degeneracy using this norm. L2,1/2-norm was able to select spatially separated beams and achieve

Plasma spot welding of ferritic stainless steels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lešnjak, A.

2002-06-01

Full Text Available Plasma spot welding of ferritic stainless steels is studied. The study was focused on welding parameters, plasma and shielding gases and the optimum welding equipment. Plasma-spot welded overlap joints on a 0.8 mm thick ferritic stainless steel sheet were subjected to a visual examination and mechanical testing in terms of tension-shear strength. Several macro specimens were prepared. Plasma spot welding is suitable to use the same gas as shielding gas and as plasma gas, i.e., a 98 % Ar/2 % H ₂ gas mixture. Tension-shear strength of plasma-spot welded joints was compared to that of resistance-spot welded joints. It was found that the resistance welded joints withstand a somewhat stronger load than the plasma welded joints due to a larger weld spot diameter of the former. Strength of both types of welded joints is approximately the same.

El artículo describe el proceso de soldeo de aceros inoxidables ferríticos por puntos con plasma. La investigación se centró en el establecimiento de los parámetros óptimos de la soldadura, la definición del gas de plasma y de protección más adecuado, así como del equipo óptimo para la realización de la soldadura. Las uniones de láminas de aceros inoxidables ferríticos de 0,8 mm de espesor, soldadas a solape por puntos con plasma, se inspeccionaron visualmente y se ensayaron mecánicamente mediante el ensayo de cizalladura por tracción. Se realizaron macro pulidos. Los resultados de la investigación demostraron que la solución más adecuada para el soldeo por puntos con plasma es elegir el mismo gas de plasma que de protección. Es decir, una mezcla de 98 % de argón y 2 % de hidrógeno. La resistencia a la cizalladura por tracción de las uniones soldadas por puntos con plasma fue comparada con la resistencia de las uniones soldadas por resistencia por puntos. Se llegó a la conclusión de que las uniones soldadas por resistencia soportan una carga algo mayor que la uniones

Effects of regulatory reforms in the electricity supply industry on electricity prices in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagayama, Hiroaki

2007-01-01

Electric power sector reforms in the electricity supply industry have had an impact on industrial and household prices in developing countries in Latin America, the former Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Using original panel data for 83 countries during the period from 1985 to 2002, we examine how each policy instrument of the reform measures influenced electricity prices for countries in the above regions. We found that variables such as entry of independent power producers (IPP), unbundling of generation and transmission, establishment of a regulatory agency, and the introduction of a wholesale spot market have had a variety of impacts on electricity prices, some of which were not always consistent with expected results. The research findings suggest that neither unbundling nor introduction of a wholesale pool market on their own necessarily reduces the electric power price. In fact, contrary to expectations, there was a tendency for the price to rise. However, coexistent with an independent regulator, unbundling may work to reduce electricity prices. Privatization and the introduction of foreign IPP and retail competition lower electricity prices in some regions, but not all

On the relationships between electron spot size, focal spot size, and virtual source position in Monte Carlo simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sterpin, E.; Chen, Y.; Lu, W.; Mackie, T. R.; Olivera, G. H.; Vynckier, S.

2011-01-01

Purpose: Every year, new radiotherapy techniques including stereotactic radiosurgery using linear accelerators give rise to new applications of Monte Carlo (MC) modeling. Accurate modeling requires knowing the size of the electron spot, one of the few parameters to tune in MC models. The resolution of integrated megavoltage imaging systems, such as the tomotherapy system, strongly depends on the photon spot size which is closely related to the electron spot. The aim of this article is to clarify the relationship between the electron spot size and the photon spot size (i.e., the focal spot size) for typical incident electron beam energies and target thicknesses. Methods: Three electron energies (3, 5.5, and 18 MeV), four electron spot sizes (FWHM=0, 0.5, 1, and 1.5 mm), and two tungsten target thicknesses (0.15 and 1 cm) were considered. The formation of the photon beam within the target was analyzed through electron energy deposition with depth, as well as photon production at several phase-space planes placed perpendicular to the beam axis, where only photons recorded for the first time were accounted for. Photon production was considered for ''newborn'' photons intersecting a 45x45 cm 2 plane at the isocenter (85 cm from source). Finally, virtual source position and ''effective'' focal spot size were computed by backprojecting all the photons from the bottom of the target intersecting a 45x45 cm 2 plane. The virtual source position and focal spot size were estimated at the plane position where the latter is minimal. Results: In the relevant case of considering only photons intersecting the 45x45 cm 2 plane, the results unambiguously showed that the effective photon spot is created within the first 0.25 mm of the target and that electron and focal spots may be assumed to be equal within 3-4%. Conclusions: In a good approximation photon spot size equals electron spot size for high energy X-ray treatments delivered by linear accelerators.

Short-Term Multiple Forecasting of Electric Energy Loads for Sustainable Demand Planning in Smart Grids for Smart Homes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adeshina Y. Alani

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption in the form of fuel or electricity is ubiquitous globally. Among energy types, electricity is crucial to human life in terms of cooking, warming and cooling of shelters, powering of electronic devices as well as commercial and industrial operations. Users of electronic devices sometimes consume fluctuating amounts of electricity generated from smart-grid infrastructure owned by the government or private investors. However, frequent imbalance is noticed between the demand and supply of electricity, hence effective planning is required to facilitate its distribution among consumers. Such effective planning is stimulated by the need to predict future consumption within a short period. Although several interesting classical techniques have been used for such predictions, they still require improvement for the purpose of reducing significant predictive errors when used for short-term load forecasting. This research develops a near-zero cooperative probabilistic scenario analysis and decision tree (PSA-DT model to address the lacuna of enormous predictive error faced by the state-of-the-art models. The PSA-DT is based on a probabilistic technique in view of the uncertain nature of electricity consumption, complemented by a DT to reinforce the collaboration of the two techniques. Based on detailed experimental analytics on residential, commercial and industrial data loads, the PSA-DT model outperforms the state-of-the-art models in terms of accuracy to a near-zero error rate. This implies that its deployment for electricity demand planning will be of great benefit to various smart-grid operators and homes.

A case study to detect the leakage of underground pressureless cement sewage water pipe using GPR, electrical, and chemical data.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Guanqun; Jia, Yonggang; Liu, Hongjun; Qiu, Hanxue; Qiu, Dongling; Shan, Hongxian

2002-03-01

The exploration and determination of leakage of underground pressureless nonmetallic pipes is difficult to deal with. A comprehensive method combining Ground Penetrating Rader (GPR), electric potential survey and geochemical survey is introduced in the leakage detection of an underground pressureless nonmetallic sewage pipe in this paper. Theoretically, in the influencing scope of a leakage spot, the obvious changes of the electromagnetic properties and the physical-chemical properties of the underground media will be reflected as anomalies in GPR and electrical survey plots. The advantages of GPR and electrical survey are fast and accurate in detection of anomaly scope. In-situ analysis of the geophysical surveys can guide the geochemical survey. Then water and soil sampling and analyzing can be the evidence for judging the anomaly is caused by pipe leakage or not. On the basis of previous tests and practical surveys, the GPR waveforms, electric potential curves, contour maps, and chemical survey results are all classified into three types according to the extent or indexes of anomalies in orderto find out the leakage spots. When three survey methods all show their anomalies as type I in an anomalous spot, this spot is suspected as the most possible leakage location. Otherwise, it will be down grade suspected point. The suspect leakage spots should be confirmed by referring the site conditions because some anomalies are caused other factors. The excavation afterward proved that the method for determining the suspected location by anomaly type is effective and economic. Comprehensive method of GRP, electric potential survey, and geochemical survey is one of the effective methods in the leakage detection of underground nonmetallic pressureless pipe with its advantages of being fast and accurate.

Elspot: Nord Pool Spot Integration in MASCEM Electricity Market Simulator

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fernandes, Ricardo; Santos, Gabriel; Praca, Isabel

2014-01-01

The energy sector in industrialized countries has been restructured in the last years, with the purpose of decreasing electricity prices through the increase in competition, and facilitating the integration of distributed energy resources. However, the restructuring process increased the complexi...

Solar 'hot spots' are still hot

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Taeil

1990-01-01

Longitude distributions of solar flares are not random but show evidence for active zones (or hot spots) where flares are concentrated. According to a previous study, two hot spots in the northern hemisphere, which rotate with a synodic period of about 26.72 days, produced the majority of major flares, during solar cycles 20 and 21. The more prominent of these two hot spots is found to be still active during the rising part of cycle 22, producing the majority of northern hemisphere major flares. The synodic rotation period of this hot spot is 26.727 + or - 0.007 days. There is also evidence for hot spots in the southern hemisphere. Two hot spots separated by 180 deg are found to rotate with a period of 29.407 days, with one of them having persisted in the same locations during cycles 19-22 and the other, during cycles 20-22.

Arc cathode spots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrade, H.O.

1989-01-01

Arc spots are usually highly unstable and jump statistically over the cathode surface. In a magnetic field parallel to the surface, preferably they move in the retrograde direction; i.e., opposite to the Lorentzian rule. If the field is inclined with respect to the surface, the spots drift away at a certain angle with respect to the proper retrograde direction (Robson drift motion). These well-known phenomena are explained by one stability theory

7 CFR 28.413 - Middling Light Spotted Color.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Middling Light Spotted Color. 28.413 Section 28.413... Spotted Color. Middling Light Spotted Color is color which in spot or color, or both, is between Middling Color and Middling Spotted Color. ...

Solar hot spots are still hot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bai, T.

1990-01-01

Longitude distributions of solar flares are not random but show evidence for active zones (or hot spots) where flares are concentrated. According to a previous study, two hot spots in the northern hemisphere, which rotate with a synodic period of about 26.72 days, produced the majority of major flares, during solar cycles 20 and 21. The more prominent of these two hot spots is found to be still active during the rising part of cycle 22, producing the majority of northern hemisphere major flares. The synodic rotation period of this hot spot is 26.727 + or - 0.007 days. There is also evidence for hot spots in the southern hemisphere. Two hot spots separated by 180 deg are found to rotate with a period of 29.407 days, with one of them having persisted in the same locations during cycles 19-22 and the other, during cycles 20-22. 14 refs

Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaime Buitrago

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX. The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. The New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

7 CFR 28.423 - Middling Spotted Color.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Middling Spotted Color. 28.423 Section 28.423... REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSING, TESTING, AND STANDARDS Standards Spotted Cotton § 28.423 Middling Spotted Color. Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples in the custody of...

SPOT WELDING COPPER–1%Cr ELECTRODE TIPS PRODUCED VIA EQUAL CHANNEL ANGULAR PRESSING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luay Bakir Hussain

2010-09-01

Full Text Available A sharp 120o Equal channel angular pressing (ECAP following rout Bc was applied at room temperature to refine the grains sizes of pure copper and copper-1%Chromium alloy for spot welding electrode tips application. Initially deformation behavior was investigated with the position using colorful plasticine as work piece followed by copper alloy. It was found the deformation at the central part of the work piece is heavily sheared than the outer part. Optical and Scanning electron microscopy were used to study the progress of grain refining under the influence of rotation and number of passes during pressing. The influnece of elongated fibrous nano graines on electrical conductivity and hardness were discussed. Shear test of spot welded 303 stainless steel indicated that nano structural Cu-1%Cr electrode tips used showed a superior results compared to commercial electrodes

Postfatigue potentiation of the paralyzed soleus muscle: evidence for adaptation with long-term electrical stimulation training

OpenAIRE

Shields, Richard K.; Dudley-Javoroski, Shauna; Littmann, Andrew E.

2006-01-01

Understanding the torque output behavior of paralyzed muscle has important implications for the use of functional neuromuscular electrical stimulation systems. Postfatigue potentiation is an augmentation of peak muscle torque during repetitive activation after a fatigue protocol. The purposes of this study were 1) to quantify postfatigue potentiation in the acutely and chronically paralyzed soleus and 2) to determine the effect of long-term soleus electrical stimulation training on the potent...

Coefficient of electrical transport vacuum arc for metals and alloys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markov, G.V.; Ehjzner, B.A.

1998-01-01

In this article the authors propose formulas for estimation coefficient of electrical transport vacuum arc for metals and alloys. They also represent results of analysis principal physical processes which take place in cathode spot vacuum arc

Improved simulation method of automotive spot weld failure with an account of the mechanical properties of spot welds

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, H.; Meng, X. M.; Fang, R.; Huang, Y. F.; Zhan, S.

2017-12-01

In this paper, the microstructure and mechanical properties of spot weld were studied, the hardness of nugget and heat affected zone (HAZ) were also tested by metallographic microscope and microhardness tester. The strength of the spot weld with the different parts' area has been characterized. According to the experiments result, CAE model of spot weld with HAZ structure was established, and simulation results of different lap-shear CAE models were analyzed. The results show that the spot weld model which contained the HAZ has good performance and more suitable for engineering application in spot weld simulation.

TV spots' impact.

Science.gov (United States)

El-bakly, S

1994-09-01

The Information, Education and Communication (IEC) Center of the State Information Service was established in 1979 for the purpose of providing information to the people on the population issue. The Ministry of Information has accorded the State Information Service free TV and radio air time for family planning dramas and spots. In the early years information campaigns were organized to make people aware of the population problem by slogans, songs, and cartoons. Around 1984 misconceptions about family planning and contraceptives were attacked through a number of TV and radio spots. A few years later 21 spots on specific contraceptive methods were broadcast which were aired for three years over 3000 times. They were extremely successful. The impact of these TV spots was one of the major reasons why the contraceptive prevalence rate increased from 30% in 1984 to 38% in 1988 and 47% in 1992. Spots were also broadcast about the social implications of large families. The TV soap opera "And The Nile Flows On", with the family planning message interwoven into it, was very well received by the target audience. A program entitled "Wedding of the Month" features couples who know family planning well. The most successful radio program is a 15-20 minute long quiz show for residents of the villages where the Select Villages Project is being implemented. The State Information Service has 60 local information centers in the 26 governorates of Egypt that make plans for the family planning campaign. In 1992 the Minya Initiative, a family planning project was implemented in the Minya Governorate. As a result, the contraceptive prevalence rate rose from 22% to 30% over 18 months. A new project, the Select Village Project, was developed in 1993 that replicates the Minya Initiative on the village level in other governorates. This new project that was implemented in sixteen governorates.

The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perwez, Usama; Sohail, Ahmed; Hassan, Syed Fahad; Zia, Usman

2015-01-01

The long-term forecasting of electricity demand and supply has assumed significant importance in fundamental research to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity issues. In this article, we provide an overview of structure of electric power sector of Pakistan and a summary of historical electricity demand & supply data, current status of divergent set of energy policies as a framework for development and application of a LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternate Planning) model of Pakistan's electric power sector. Pakistan's LEAP model is used to analyze the supply policy selections and demand assumptions for future power generation system on the basis of economics, technicality and implicit environmental implications. Three scenarios are enacted over the study period (2011–2030) which include BAU (Business-As-Usual), NC (New Coal) & GF (Green Future). The results of these scenarios are compared in terms of projected electricity demand & supply, net present cost analysis (discount rate at 4%, 7% and 10%) and GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reductions, along with sensitivity analysis to study the effect of varying parameters on total cost. A concluding section illustrates the policy implications of model for futuristic power generation and environmental policies in Pakistan. - Highlights: • Pakistan-specific electricity demand model is presented. • None of the scenarios exceeded the price of 12 US Cents/kWh. • By 2030, fuel cost is the most dominant factor to influence electricity per unit cost. • By 2030, CO_2 emissions per unit electricity will increase significantly in coal scenario relative to others. • By 2030, the penetration of renewable energy and conservation policies can save 70.6 tWh electricity.

Black-spot poison ivy.

Science.gov (United States)

Schram, Sarah E; Willey, Andrea; Lee, Peter K; Bohjanen, Kimberly A; Warshaw, Erin M

2008-01-01

In black-spot poison ivy dermatitis, a black lacquerlike substance forms on the skin when poison ivy resin is exposed to air. Although the Toxicodendron group of plants is estimated to be the most common cause of allergic contact dermatitis in the United States, black-spot poison ivy dermatitis is relatively rare.

Electric deregulation in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Way, R.W.

1996-01-01

An outline of the electric power deregulation activities across Canada, particularly in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario, was presented. A central element of the restructuring is creation of a power pool which acts as an open spot market, and a transmission administrator that provides access to the generators, distribution companies, importers and exporters. Load forecasts, average daily load profile and hourly pool prices for TransAlta Corporation were presented as an example. 22 figs

Optimal charging schedule of an electric vehicle fleet

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Junjie; You, Shi; Østergaard, Jacob

2011-01-01

In this paper, we propose an approach to optimize the charging schedule of an Electric Vehicle (EV) fleet both taking into account spot price and individual EV driving requirement with the goal of minimizing charging costs. A flexible and suitable mathematic model is introduced to characterize...

Computational prediction of protein hot spot residues.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrow, John Kenneth; Zhang, Shuxing

2012-01-01

Most biological processes involve multiple proteins interacting with each other. It has been recently discovered that certain residues in these protein-protein interactions, which are called hot spots, contribute more significantly to binding affinity than others. Hot spot residues have unique and diverse energetic properties that make them challenging yet important targets in the modulation of protein-protein complexes. Design of therapeutic agents that interact with hot spot residues has proven to be a valid methodology in disrupting unwanted protein-protein interactions. Using biological methods to determine which residues are hot spots can be costly and time consuming. Recent advances in computational approaches to predict hot spots have incorporated a myriad of features, and have shown increasing predictive successes. Here we review the state of knowledge around protein-protein interactions, hot spots, and give an overview of multiple in silico prediction techniques of hot spot residues.

Incorporating network effects in a competitive electricity industry. An Australian perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Outhred, H.; Kaye, J.

1996-01-01

The role of an electricity network in a competitive electricity industry is reviewed, the nation's experience with transmission pricing is discussed, and a 'Nodal Auction Model' for incorporating network effects in a competitive electricity industry is proposed. The model uses a computer-based auction procedure to address both the spatial issues associated with an electricity network and the temporal issues associated with operation scheduling. The objective is to provide a market framework that addresses both network effects and operation scheduling in a coordinated implementation of spot pricing theory. 12 refs

Analysing the relationship between wholesale and end-user prices in the Nordic electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, P.E.; Johnsen, T.A.; Naervae, T.; Wasti, S.

2004-09-01

Efficient pricing in a deregulated market means prices which closely reflect the cost of obtaining electricity in the wholesale market. This research report analyses and explains the relationship between wholesale prices (especially Spot Prices) and end-user prices for residential, industrial and commercial users in the Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian electricity markets. The report primarily analyses the closeness of wholesale and end-user price patterns (the primary tracking period is 1998-2003, focusing especially closely on Finland and the period 2002-2003). The report reveals that Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish end- user prices can all be said to follow spot prices (and other wholesale prices) to a greater or lesser extent. The relationship is however complex and, especially regarding spot prices, clearly closest in Norway, followed by Sweden and then Finland. Whilst, overall, Finnish prices seem quite competitive and Nordic end-user prices currently seem to be extremely similar, there is some cause for concern in Finland. In particular, very few customers have spot based tariffs; wholesale prices (including spot prices) appear to sometimes have been used as an excuse for end-user price rises; Finnish suppliers have often been slow to respond to post-spike spot price reductions; offer prices are currently often higher than standard variable prices; and suppliers seem quite free to follow any pricing strategy, regardless of the presence of competition. Six factors are identified which influence end-user prices and their relationship with wholesale (and particularly spot) prices: hydro-dependency; concentration and entry barriers; cultural and historical determination; legislation; pricing strategies; the competitive environment. The report additionally specifically illustrates a wide variety of possible supplier strategies which might explain Finnish end-user pricing. Spot prices seem to provide only a minor explanation for Finnish end-user prices. (orig.)

Optimal designs of small CHP plants in a market with fluctuating electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lund, H.; Andersen, A.N.

2005-01-01

Combined Heat and Power production (CHP) are essential for implementation of the climate change response objectives in many countries. In an introduction period, small CHP plants have typically been offered fixed electricity prices, but in many countries, such pricing conditions are now being replaced by spot market prices. Consequently, new methodologies and tools for the optimisation of small CHP plant designs are needed. The small CHP plants in Denmark are already experienced in optimising their electricity production against the triple tariff, which has existed for almost 10 years. Consequently, the CHP plants have long term experience in organising when to switch on and off the CHP units in order to optimise their profit. Also, the CHP owners have long term experience in designing their plants. For instance, small CHP plants in Denmark have usually invested in excess capacity on the CHP units in combination with heat storage capacity. Thereby, the plants have increased their performance in order to optimise revenues. This paper presents the Danish experience with methodologies and software tools, which have been used to design investment and operation strategies for almost all small CHP plants in Denmark during the decade of the triple tariff. Moreover, the changes in such methodologies and tools in order to optimise performance in a market with fluctuating electricity prices are presented and discussed

How many years should I be married: Long-term power contracts in the electric utility industry in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Levy Ferre, Alberto

1998-12-01

This dissertation deals with the effects of long-term power contracts in the electric utility in Texas on consumer welfare, investigating economic and legal aspects of price formation. The study focuses on the institutions---vertical integration and contractual arrangements---that govern the transactions between the different links in the electricity provision chain and its effects on retail electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial customers. The main hypothesis is that long-term power contracts serve as an uncertainty reduction mechanism to the buyer by clearly defining the conditions of the exchange for a significant period of time. In turn, this reduction of uncertainty is compensated by a premium to the seller in the form of higher prices. It is found that long-term wholesale power contracts present varying levels of flexibility in the terms of the exchange that are directly translated into prices and bills, providing support to the main hypothesis. Control variables include the role of new technologies, degree of competition and population demographics. Each control variable has differing impacts of different customer classes, depending on their demand elasticity. The study poses several interesting policy implications. First, the institutions that will govern and supervise the functioning of the market have an important weight in its success. The results indicate that competition cannot be a policy objective in itself There is a balancing act between the additional needs of a functional market in terms of infrastructure, information and coordination, and the inefficiencies that occur for lack of consumer options. Second, all customers are not equal. Some customer classes have fewer alternatives than others do, their consumption patterns differ and their dependence on electricity varies. Therefore, a policy that treats all customer classes the same will produce an inferior outcome. Third, the relevant environment matters. Legislative

Water-Soluble Dried Blood Spot in Protein Analysis: A Proof-of-Concept Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosting, Cecilie; Gjelstad, Astrid; Halvorsen, Trine Grønhaug

2015-08-04

In the present work human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) was used as a model protein in a proof-of-concept study combining water-soluble dried blood spot (DBS) material in liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS)-based protein analysis. A water-soluble material consisting of commercially available carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) was evaluated as sampling material for this purpose. The material dissolved readily at physiological pH. Different sample preparation methods were evaluated, and in the final method, 15 μL of whole blood was deposited and dried on CMC before the whole spot was dissolved prior to cleanup by immunoaffinity extraction, tryptic digest, and preconcentration by solid-phase extraction (SPE). The results indicated complete dissolution of hCG from the spots, acceptable limit of detection (LOD) (0.1 IU/mL), linearity (R(2) = 0.959), accuracy (16%), and precision (≤22%). Long-term stability (45 days) of hCG in dried spots at reduced temperatures (≤8 °C) was also demonstrated. The analyte recovery was comparable to the commercially available nonsolvable cellulose material (FTA DMPK-C card).

Dried Blood Spot Proteomics: Surface Extraction of Endogenous Proteins Coupled with Automated Sample Preparation and Mass Spectrometry Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Nicholas J.; Bunch, Josephine; Cooper, Helen J.

2013-08-01

Dried blood spots offer many advantages as a sample format including ease and safety of transport and handling. To date, the majority of mass spectrometry analyses of dried blood spots have focused on small molecules or hemoglobin. However, dried blood spots are a potentially rich source of protein biomarkers, an area that has been overlooked. To address this issue, we have applied an untargeted bottom-up proteomics approach to the analysis of dried blood spots. We present an automated and integrated method for extraction of endogenous proteins from the surface of dried blood spots and sample preparation via trypsin digestion by use of the Advion Biosciences Triversa Nanomate robotic platform. Liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry of the resulting digests enabled identification of 120 proteins from a single dried blood spot. The proteins identified cross a concentration range of four orders of magnitude. The method is evaluated and the results discussed in terms of the proteins identified and their potential use as biomarkers in screening programs.

7 CFR 1421.11 - Spot checks.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot checks. 1421.11 Section 1421.11 Agriculture... ASSISTANCE LOANS AND LOAN DEFICIENCY PAYMENTS FOR 2008 THROUGH 2012 General § 1421.11 Spot checks. (a) CCC... CCC access to the farm and storage facility as necessary to conduct collateral inspections, or “spot...

21 CFR 886.1435 - Maxwell spot.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Maxwell spot. 886.1435 Section 886.1435 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES OPHTHALMIC DEVICES Diagnostic Devices § 886.1435 Maxwell spot. (a) Identification. A Maxwell spot is an AC...

There is no bidirectional hot-spot in Sentinel-2 data

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Z.; Roy, D. P.; Zhang, H.

2017-12-01

The Sentinel-2 multi-spectral instrument (MSI) acquires reflective wavelength observations with directional effects due to surface reflectance anisotropy, often described by the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). Recently, we quantified Sentinel-2A (S2A) BRDF effects for 20° × 10° of southern Africa sensed in January and in April 2016 and found maximum BRDF effects for the January data and at the western scan edge, i.e., in the back-scatter direction (Roy et al. 2017). The hot-spot is the term used to describe the increased directional reflectance that occurs over most surfaces when the solar and viewing directions coincide, and has been observed in wide-field of view data such as MODIS. Recently, we observed that Landsat data will not have a hot-spot because the global annual minimum solar zenith angle is more than twice the maximum view zenith angle (Zhang et al. 2016). This presentation examines if there is a S2A hot-spot which may be possible as it has a wider field of view (20.6°) and higher orbit (786 km) than Landsat. We examined a global year of S2A metadata extracted using the Committee on Earth Observation Satellite Visualization Environment (COVE) tool, computed the solar zenith angles in the acquisition corners, and ranked the acquisitions by the solar zenith angle in the back-scatter direction. The available image data for the 10 acquisitions with the smallest solar zenith angle over the year were ordered from the ESA and their geometries examined in detail. The acquisition closest to the hot-spot had a maximum scattering angle of 173.61° on its western edge (view zenith angle 11.91°, solar zenith angle 17.97°) and was acquired over 60.80°W 24.37°N on June 2nd 2016. Given that hot-spots are only apparent when the scattering angle is close to 180° we conclude from this global annual analysis that there is no hot-spot in Sentinel-2 data. Roy, D.P, Li, J., Zhang, H.K., Yan, L., Huang, H., Li, Z., 2017, Examination of

Measuring and testing natural gas and electricity markets volatility : evidence from Alberta's deregulated markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serletis, A.; Shahmoradi, A.

2005-01-01

A number of innovative methods for modelling spot wholesale electricity prices have recently been developed. However, these models have primarily used a univariate time series approach to the analysis of electricity prices. This paper specified and estimated a multivariate GARCH-M model of natural gas and electricity price changes and their volatilities, using data over the deregulated period between January 1996 to November 2004 from Alberta's spot power and natural gas markets. The primary objective of the model was to investigate the relationship between electricity and natural gas prices. It was noted that the model allows for the possibilities of spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for natural gas and electricity price changes, and also for the separate examination of the effects of the volatility of anticipated and unanticipated changes in natural gas and electricity prices. Section 2 of the paper provided a description of the model used to test for causality between natural gas and electricity price changes, while section 3 discussed the data and presented the empirical results. It was concluded that there is a bidirectional causality between natural gas and electricity price changes. However, neither anticipated nor unanticipated natural gas price volatility causes electricity price changes. Anticipated electricity price volatility has a causal effect on natural gas. 10 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

Pro short-term procurement - Broker/trader

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoellen, E.E.

1990-01-01

The author presents his opinion on the issue of short-term versus long-term procurement of uranium and enrichment and the impact on reliability of supply. The progression of the market has been one of increasing commoditization. Utility buyers have moved towards purchasing uranium on the spot market and linking long-term contracts to spot-market pricing. There is some logic to the argument that utilities and the industry in general would be best served by this approach. Inventories would be worked off much more quickly, and unnecessary supply would be shut off until prices recovered to profitable levels. The result would be a healthier market with no detriment to the reliability of supply

The Price and Volatility Dynamics in the Swedish-Norwegian Renewable Electricity Certificate MarketA Study of Spillover Effects and Regulatory changes

OpenAIRE

Finell, Philip; Hiller, Maria

2016-01-01

The market for renewable electricity certificates (REC) is the primary support system for renewable energy in Sweden and Norway. Regulatory uncertainty and equity markets have previously been proven to impact the volatility of the REC spot contract. As policy makers, renewable electricity investors and other stakeholders aim for profitability and efficient regulation, additional insights of the dynamics in the  REC market is needed. This study examines regulatory uncertainty on both REC spot ...

Electrical impedance of layered atherosclerotic plaques on human aortas

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.J. Slager (Cornelis); A.C. Phaff; C.E. Essed; N. Bom (Klaas); J.C.H. Schuurbiers (Johan); P.W.J.C. Serruys (Patrick)

1992-01-01

textabstractElectrical impedance measurements were performed on 13 atherosclerotic human aortic segments at 67 measuring spots in order to determine whether or not on the basis of these data a distinction can be made between atherosclerotic lesions and normal tissue. Stenosis localization and

Environmental implications of electricity generation in an integrated long-term planning framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, Graham M.; West, James

2012-01-01

Long-term, integrated modelling of electricity generation capacity and its operational requirements is important for coherent energy policy because of the multi-decadal lifespan of such plant, and because related fuel requirements, water consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions impact other sectors. This paper describes a physical model of electricity generation designed for long-term simulations, including the reproduction of decades of historical data, and its application to key policy questions. The simulation uses a dynamic, physical input–output model for the basic material and energy industries, embedded in an economy-wide stocks and flows framework (SFF). The historical reproduction, illustrated for the state of Victoria, is based on integrating bottom-up technical data on physical processes as inputs, and validating output against top-down aggregate data. We show that while greenhouse gas emissions would decrease significantly with the aggressive introduction of cleaner generation technology, long-term reductions are difficult to maintain against ongoing growth in consumption. Additionally, our sensitivity analysis identifies the importance of rapid action due to the age structure of operating power stations. We also identify significant imposts of alternative power generation on land and water resources, though a business-as-usual scenario would impose greater losses of water resources. - Highlights: ► System-wide dynamic analysis is needed to avoid unintended adverse environmental outcomes. ► Dynamics of long-lived plant is important in transitions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. ► Large gains in GHG emissions efficiency of generation portfolios fail to maintain low emissions.

Diffusion in plasma: The Hall effect, compositional waves, and chemical spots

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Urpin, V., E-mail: Vadim.urpin@uv.es [Ioffe Institute of Physics and Technology (Russian Federation)

2017-03-15

Diffusion caused by a combined influence of the electric current and Hall effect is considered, and it is argued that such diffusion can form inhomogeneities of a chemical composition in plasma. The considered mechanism can be responsible for the formation of element spots in laboratory and astrophysical plasmas. This current-driven diffusion can be accompanied by propagation of a particular type of waves in which the impurity number density oscillates alone. These compositional waves exist if the magnetic pressure in plasma is much greater than the gas pressure.

Long-term memory of heterospecific vocalizations by African lions

Science.gov (United States)

Grinnell, Jon; van Dyk, Gus; Slotow, Rob

2005-09-01

Animals that use and evaluate long-distance signals have the potential to glean valuable information about others in their environment via eavesdropping. In those areas where they coexist, African lions (Panthera leo) are a significant eavesdropper on spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta), often using hyena vocalizations to locate and scavenge from hyena kills. This relationship was used to test African lions' long-term memory of the vocalizations of spotted hyenas via playback experiments. Hyena whoops and a control sound (Canis lupus howls) were played to three populations of lions in South Africa: (1) lions with past experience of spotted hyenas; (2) lions with current experience; and (3) lions with no experience. The results strongly suggest that lions have the cognitive ability to remember the vocalizations of spotted hyenas even after 10 years with no contact of any kind with them. Such long-term memory of heterospecific vocalizations may be widespread in species that gain fitness benefits from eavesdropping on others, but where such species are sympatric and often interact it may pass unrecognized as short-term memory instead.

Newborn screening blood spot analysis in the UK: influence of spot size, punch location and haematocrit.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawson, A J; Bernstone, L; Hall, S K

2016-03-01

In dried blood spot analysis, punch location and variations in applied sample volume and haematocrit can produce different measured concentrations of analytes. We investigated the magnitude of these effects in newborn screening in the UK. Heparinized blood spiked with thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), phenylalanine, tyrosine, leucine, methionine, octanoyl carnitine (C8), and immunoreactive trypsinogen (IRT) was spotted onto filter paper: (i) at a constant haematocrit of 50% at various volumes, and (ii) at a range of haematocrits using a constant volume. Subpunches (3.2 mm) of the dried blood spots were then analysed. Compared with a central punch from a 50 µL blood spot with 50% haematocrit, 10 µL spots can have significantly lower measured concentrations of all analytes, with decreases of 15% or more observed for leucine, methionine, phenylalanine, and tyrosine. Punching at the edge of a spot can increase measured concentrations up to 35%. Higher haematocrit decreased measured TSH and C8 yet increased amino acids and IRT by 15% compared with 50% haematocrit. Lower haematocrits had the opposite effect, but only with higher concentrations of some analytes. Differences in blood spot size, haematocrit and punch location substantially affect measured concentrations for analytes used in the UK newborn screening programme, and this could affect false positive and negative rates. To minimize analytical bias, these variables should be controlled or adjusted for where possible. © The Author(s) 2015.

Multivariate long memory processes: applications to the EDF producer problematic in the context of the european electricity market liberalization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diongue, A.K.

2005-10-01

Certain crucial financial time series, such as the interconnected european electricity market spot prices, exhibit long memory, in the sense of slowly decaying correlations combined with heteroskedasticity and periodic or none cycles. In modeling such behavior, we consider on one hand, the k factor GIGARCH process and additionally propose two methods to address the related parameter estimation problem. In each method, we explore the asymptotic theory for estimation. Moreover, the asymptotic properties are validated and compared via Monte Carlo simulations. On the other hand, we introduce a new multivariate long memory generalized model (k-factor MVGARMA) in order to model interconnected european electricity market spot prices. We suggest a practical framework to address the parameter estimation problem. We investigate the analytical expressions of the least squares predictors for the two proposed models and their confidence intervals. To finish, we apply the two proposed models to the french and german electricity market spot prices and a comparison is made between their forecasting abilities. (author)

Managing electricity procurement cost and risk by a local distribution company

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.-K.; Karimov, R.I.; Horowitz, Ira

2004-01-01

A local electricity distribution company (LDC) can satisfy some of its future electricity requirements through self-generation and volatile spot markets, and the remainder through fixed-price forward contracts that will reduce its exposure to the inherent risk of spot-price volatility. A theoretical framework is developed for determining the forward-contract purchase that minimizes the LDCs expected procurement cost, subject to a cost-exposure constraint. The answers to the questions of 'What to buy?' and 'How to buy?' are illustrated using an example of a hypothetical LDC that is based on a municipal utility in Florida. It is shown that the LDCs procurement decision is consistent with least-cost procurement subject to a cost-exposure constraint, and that an internet-based multi-round auction can produce competitive price quotes for its desired forward purchase

The role of price elastic demand in market power in the Nordic electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravn, H.F.

2004-01-01

The paper discusses the modelling and analysis of market power and price elastic demand in the Nordic electricity spot market, Nordpool. The modelling of market power in the electricity sector must take into account a number of features that are specific to the electricity sector. First, electricity cannot be stored, but must be produced simultaneously with consumption. This aspect is, however, modified by the possibility of using hydro reservoirs as an indirect electricity storage. Second, the electricity transmission network plays an important role by breaking the market into several geographically separate sub-markets with different prices. Moreover, the specific bottlenecks may differ from hour to hour, according to the balance between supply and demand in each sub-market. Third, the demand side is presently characterised by very limited experience with hour to-hour-changes in electricity prices and very limited experience with short time adjustments of electricity consumption in response to changes in the electricity price. In the present paper three basic models for supply side competition on the Nordpool spot market will be presented, viz., perfect competition, Cournot competition and Supply Function Equilibrium. The models represent price and quantity settlement, including determination of price areas (bottle necks), in accordance with the way the Nordpool market functions. The models will incorporate electricity demand which is responsive to the electricity price. The paper describes the role of demand response for the determination of the electricity prices in each of the three supply side competition models. (au)

Rigorous assessment and integration of the sequence and structure based features to predict hot spots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Yong

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Systematic mutagenesis studies have shown that only a few interface residues termed hot spots contribute significantly to the binding free energy of protein-protein interactions. Therefore, hot spots prediction becomes increasingly important for well understanding the essence of proteins interactions and helping narrow down the search space for drug design. Currently many computational methods have been developed by proposing different features. However comparative assessment of these features and furthermore effective and accurate methods are still in pressing need. Results In this study, we first comprehensively collect the features to discriminate hot spots and non-hot spots and analyze their distributions. We find that hot spots have lower relASA and larger relative change in ASA, suggesting hot spots tend to be protected from bulk solvent. In addition, hot spots have more contacts including hydrogen bonds, salt bridges, and atomic contacts, which favor complexes formation. Interestingly, we find that conservation score and sequence entropy are not significantly different between hot spots and non-hot spots in Ab+ dataset (all complexes. While in Ab- dataset (antigen-antibody complexes are excluded, there are significant differences in two features between hot pots and non-hot spots. Secondly, we explore the predictive ability for each feature and the combinations of features by support vector machines (SVMs. The results indicate that sequence-based feature outperforms other combinations of features with reasonable accuracy, with a precision of 0.69, a recall of 0.68, an F1 score of 0.68, and an AUC of 0.68 on independent test set. Compared with other machine learning methods and two energy-based approaches, our approach achieves the best performance. Moreover, we demonstrate the applicability of our method to predict hot spots of two protein complexes. Conclusion Experimental results show that support vector machine

Rigorous assessment and integration of the sequence and structure based features to predict hot spots

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Systematic mutagenesis studies have shown that only a few interface residues termed hot spots contribute significantly to the binding free energy of protein-protein interactions. Therefore, hot spots prediction becomes increasingly important for well understanding the essence of proteins interactions and helping narrow down the search space for drug design. Currently many computational methods have been developed by proposing different features. However comparative assessment of these features and furthermore effective and accurate methods are still in pressing need. Results In this study, we first comprehensively collect the features to discriminate hot spots and non-hot spots and analyze their distributions. We find that hot spots have lower relASA and larger relative change in ASA, suggesting hot spots tend to be protected from bulk solvent. In addition, hot spots have more contacts including hydrogen bonds, salt bridges, and atomic contacts, which favor complexes formation. Interestingly, we find that conservation score and sequence entropy are not significantly different between hot spots and non-hot spots in Ab+ dataset (all complexes). While in Ab- dataset (antigen-antibody complexes are excluded), there are significant differences in two features between hot pots and non-hot spots. Secondly, we explore the predictive ability for each feature and the combinations of features by support vector machines (SVMs). The results indicate that sequence-based feature outperforms other combinations of features with reasonable accuracy, with a precision of 0.69, a recall of 0.68, an F1 score of 0.68, and an AUC of 0.68 on independent test set. Compared with other machine learning methods and two energy-based approaches, our approach achieves the best performance. Moreover, we demonstrate the applicability of our method to predict hot spots of two protein complexes. Conclusion Experimental results show that support vector machine classifiers are quite

Models of supply function equilibrium with applications to the electricity industry

Science.gov (United States)

Aromi, J. Daniel

Electricity market design requires tools that result in a better understanding of incentives of generators and consumers. Chapter 1 and 2 provide tools and applications of these tools to analyze incentive problems in electricity markets. In chapter 1, models of supply function equilibrium (SFE) with asymmetric bidders are studied. I prove the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in an asymmetric SFE model. In addition, I propose a simple algorithm to calculate numerically the unique equilibrium. As an application, a model of investment decisions is considered that uses the asymmetric SFE as an input. In this model, firms can invest in different technologies, each characterized by distinct variable and fixed costs. In chapter 2, option contracts are introduced to a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. The uniqueness of the equilibrium in the spot market is established. Comparative statics results on the effect of option contracts on the equilibrium price are presented. A multi-stage game where option contracts are traded before the spot market stage is considered. When contracts are optimally procured by a central authority, the selected profile of option contracts is such that the spot market price equals marginal cost for any load level resulting in a significant reduction in cost. If load serving entities (LSEs) are price takers, in equilibrium, there is no trade of option contracts. Even when LSEs have market power, the central authority's solution cannot be implemented in equilibrium. In chapter 3, we consider a game in which a buyer must repeatedly procure an input from a set of firms. In our model, the buyer is able to sign long term contracts that establish the likelihood with which the next period contract is awarded to an entrant or the incumbent. We find that the buyer finds it optimal to favor the incumbent, this generates more intense competition between suppliers. In a two period model we are able to completely characterize the optimal mechanism.

Clinically apparent long-term electric disturbances in the acute and very long-term of patent foramen ovale device-based closure.

Science.gov (United States)

Rigatelli, Gianluca; Zuin, Marco; Pedon, Luigi; Zecchel, Roberto; Dell'Avvocata, Fabio; Carrozza, Antonio; Zennaro, Marco; Pastore, Gianni; Zanon, Francesco

2017-03-01

Incidence of electrical disturbances in patients submitted to transcatheter patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure has not been fully clarified in a large population. The aim of the study is to assess the incidence of atrial fibrillation, supraventricular tachi-arrhythmias, and atrio-ventricular block in the acute and very long-term follow-up. We reviewed the medical and instrumental data of 1000 consecutive patients (mean age 47.3±17.1years) prospectively enrolled in two centers over a 13-year period (February 1999 to February 2012) for right-to-left (R-to-L) shunt ICE-aided catheter-based closure using different devices. Successful transcatheter PFO closure was achieved in 99.8% of the patients. Implanted devices were: Amplatzer PFO Occluder in 463 patients (46.3%), Amplatzer ASD Cribriform Occluder in 420 patients (42.0%), Premere Occlusion System in 95 patients (9.5%), and Biostar Occluder in 22 patients (2.2%). Postprocedural electrical complications occurred in 5.9% of patients. The only independent predictors of electrophysiological complications were female gender (OR 2.3, 0.5-5.1 [95% CI], p30mm (OR 5.0, 1.2-7.2 [95% CI], pgender (OR 2.3, 0.5-5.1 [95% CI], p30mm (OR 5.0, 1.2-7.2 [95% CI], p<0.001). Device-based closure of PFO using different devices, appeared very safe from an electrophysiological point of view with low incidence of electrical disturbances even in the very long-term follow-up. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Day-Ahead Energy Planning with 100% Electric Vehicle Penetration in the Nordic Region by 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhaoxi Liu

2014-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the day-ahead energy planning of passenger cars with 100% electric vehicle (EV penetration in the Nordic region by 2050. EVs will play an important role in the future energy systems which can both reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from the transport sector and provide the demand side flexibility required by smart grids. On the other hand, the EVs will increase the electricity consumption. In order to quantify the electricity consumption increase due to the 100% EV penetration in the Nordic region to facilitate the power system planning studies, the day-ahead energy planning of EVs has been investigated with different EV charging scenarios. Five EV charging scenarios have been considered in the energy planning analysis which are: uncontrolled charging all day, uncontrolled charging at home, timed charging, spot price based charging all day and spot price based charging at home. The demand profiles of the five charging analysis show that timed charging is the least favorable charging option and the spot priced based EV charging might induce high peak demands. The EV charging demand will have a considerable share of the energy consumption in the future Nordic power system.

Application of auctions as a pricing mechanism for the interchange of electric power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Post, D.L.; Coppinger, S.S.; Sheble, G.B.

1995-01-01

The expected move to a market-based electric power industry will significantly change electric utility operations. These changes will fundamentally alter the pricing of electric power. How this pricing will be accomplished is a key issue. Traditionally, embedded cost based methods have been used. Recently, spot-pricing has received attention as a possible approach in a market-based electric power environment. Another market-based approach is the use of auctions. This paper will present the application of a sequential sealed-bid and sealed-offer auction to the pricing of electric power by using linear programming

Risk management and market efficiency on the Midwest Independent System Operator electricity exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Kevin

Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, Inc. (MISO) is a non-profit regional transmission organization (RTO) that oversees electricity production and transmission across thirteen states and one Canadian province. MISO also operates an electronic exchange for buying and selling electricity for each of its five regional hubs. MISO oversees two types of markets. The forward market, which is referred to as the day-ahead (DA) market, allows market participants to place demand bids and supply offers on electricity to be delivered at a specified hour the following day. The equilibrium price, known as the locational marginal price (LMP), is determined by MISO after receiving sale offers and purchase bids from market participants. MISO also coordinates a spot market, which is known as the real-time (RT) market. Traders in the real-time market must submit bids and offers by thirty minutes prior to the hour for which the trade will be executed. After receiving purchase and sale offers for a given hour in the real time market, MISO then determines the LMP for that particular hour. The existence of the DA and RT markets allows producers and retailers to hedge against the large fluctuations that are common in electricity prices. Hedge ratios on the MISO exchange are estimated using various techniques. No hedge ratio technique examined consistently outperforms the unhedged portfolio in terms of variance reduction. Consequently, none of the hedge ratio methods in this study meet the general interpretation of FASB guidelines for a highly effective hedge. One of the major goals of deregulation is to bring about competition and increased efficiency in electricity markets. Previous research suggests that electricity exchanges may not be weak-form market efficient. A simple moving average trading rule is found to produce statistically and economically significant profits on the MISO exchange. This could call the long-term survivability of the MISO exchange into question.

ELMO model predicts the price of electric power; ELMO-malli saehkoen hinnan ennustamiseksi

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antila, H. [Electrowatt-Ekono Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

2001-07-01

Electrowatt-Ekono has developed a new model, by which it is possible to make long-term prognoses on the development of electricity prices in the Nordic Countries. The ELMO model can be used as an analysis service of the electricity markets and estimation of the profitability of long-term power distribution contracts with different scenarios. It can also be applied for calculation of technical and economical fundamentals for new power plants, and for estimation of the effects of different taxation models on the emissions of power generation. The model describes the whole power generation system, the power and heat consumption and transmission. The Finnish power generation system is based on the Electrowatt-Ekono's boiler database by combining different data elements. Calculation is based on the assumption that the Nordic power generation system is used optimally, and that the production costs are minimised. In practise the effectively operated electricity markets ensure the optimal use of the production system. The market area to be described consists of Finland and Sweden. The spot prices have long been the same. Norway has been treated as a separate market area. The most potential power generation system, the power consumption and the power transmission system are presumed for the target year during a normal rainfall situation. The basic scenario is calculated on the basis of the preconditional data. The calculation is carried out on hourly basis, which enables the estimation of the price variation of electric power between different times during the day and seasons. The system optimises the power generation on the basis of electricity and heat consumption curves and fuel prices. The result is an hourly limit price for electric power. Estimates are presented as standard form reports. Prices are presented as average annuals, in the seasonal base, and in hourly or daily basis for different seasons.

Advances in spot curing technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burga, R.

1999-01-01

A brief review of spot curing technology was presented. The process which a spot of energy of a specific wavelength bandwidth and irradiance is used to cause a coating, encapsulant or adhesive to change from a liquid to a solid state

Research on Nonlinear Feature of Electrical Resistance of Acupuncture Points

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianzi Wei

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A highly sensitive volt-ampere characteristics detecting system was applied to measure the volt-ampere curves of nine acupuncture points, LU9, HT7, LI4, PC6, ST36, SP6, KI3, LR3, and SP3, and corresponding nonacupuncture points bilaterally from 42 healthy volunteers. Electric currents intensity was increased from 0 μA to 20 μA and then returned to 0 μA again. The results showed that the volt-ampere curves of acupuncture points had nonlinear property and magnetic hysteresis-like feature. On all acupuncture point spots, the volt-ampere areas of the increasing phase were significantly larger than that of the decreasing phase (P<0.01. The volt-ampere areas of ten acupuncture point spots were significantly smaller than those of the corresponding nonacupuncture point spots when intensity was increase (P<0.05~P<0.001. And when intensity was decrease, eleven acupuncture point spots showed the same property as above (P<0.05~P<0.001, while two acupuncture point spots showed opposite phenomenon in which the areas of two acupuncture point spots were larger than those of the corresponding nonacupuncture point spots (P<0.05~P<0.01. These results show that the phenomenon of low skin resistance does not exist to all acupuncture points.

Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ergemen, Yunus Emre; Haldrup, Niels; Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir

to strong seasonal periodicity, and along the cross-sectional dimension, i.e. the hours of the day, there is a strong dependence which necessarily has to be accounted for in order to avoid spurious inference when focusing on the time series dependence alone. The long-range dependence is modelled in terms...... of a fractionally integrated panel data model and it is shown that both prices and loads consist of common factors with long memory and with loadings that vary considerably during the day. Due to the competitiveness of the Nordic power market the aggregate supply curve approximates well the marginal costs...... data approaches to analyse the time series and the cross-sectional dependence of hourly Nord Pool electricity spot prices and loads for the period 2000-2013. Hourly electricity prices and loads data are characterized by strong serial long-range dependence in the time series dimension in addition...

The fractal nature of vacuum arc cathode spots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anders, Andre

2005-01-01

Cathode spot phenomena show many features of fractals, for example self-similar patterns in the emitted light and arc erosion traces. Although there have been hints on the fractal nature of cathode spots in the literature, the fractal approach to spot interpretation is underutilized. In this work, a brief review of spot properties is given, touching the differences between spot type 1 (on cathodes surfaces with dielectric layers) and spot type 2 (on metallic, clean surfaces) as well as the known spot fragment or cell structure. The basic properties of self-similarity, power laws, random colored noise, and fractals are introduced. Several points of evidence for the fractal nature of spots are provided. Specifically power laws are identified as signature of fractal properties, such as spectral power of noisy arc parameters (ion current, arc voltage, etc) obtained by fast Fourier transform. It is shown that fractal properties can be observed down to the cutoff by measurement resolution or occurrence of elementary steps in physical processes. Random walk models of cathode spot motion are well established: they go asymptotically to Brownian motion for infinitesimal step width. The power spectrum of the arc voltage noise falls as 1/f 2 , where f is frequency, supporting a fractal spot model associated with Brownian motion

Effect of cattle exclosures on Columbia Spotted Frog abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher; Chambert, Thierry; Mccreary, Brome; Galvan, Stephanie; Rowe, Jennifer

2018-01-01

Livestock grazing is an important land use in the western USA and can have positive or negative effects on amphibians. Columbia Spotted Frog (Rana luteiventris) often use ponds that provide water for cattle. We conducted a long-term manipulative study on US Forest Service land in northeastern Oregon to determine the effects of full and partial exclosures that limited cattle access to ponds used by frogs. We found weak evidence of a short-term increase in abundance that did not differ between full and partial exclosures and that diminished with continuing exclusion of cattle. The benefit of exclosures was small relative to the overall decline in breeding numbers that we documented. This suggests that some protection can provide a short-term boost to populations.