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Sample records for term electricity spot

  1. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V.; Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J.; Antila, E.

    1998-01-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  2. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J. [Vaasa Univ. (Finland); Antila, E. [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  3. Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowotarski, Jakub; Tomczyk, Jakub; Weron, Rafał

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of an extensive study on estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) of electricity spot prices. We consider a battery of over 300 models, including monthly dummies and models based on Fourier or wavelet decomposition combined with linear or exponential decay. We find that the considered wavelet-based models are significantly better in terms of forecasting spot prices up to a year ahead than the commonly used monthly dummies and sine-based models. This result questions the validity and usefulness of stochastic models of spot electricity prices built on the latter two types of LTSC models. - Highlights: • First comprehensive study on the forecasting of the long-term seasonal components • Over 300 models examined, including commonly used and new approaches • Wavelet-based models outperform sine-based and monthly dummy models. • Validity of stochastic models built on sines or monthly dummies is questionable

  4. Spot markets vs. long-term contracts - modelling tools for regional electricity generating utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    A properly organised market for electricity requires that some information will be available for all market participants. Also a range of generally available modelling tools are necessary. This paper describes a set of simple models based on published data for analyses of the long-term revenues of regional utilities with combined heat and power generation (CHP), who will operate a competitive international electricity market and a local heat market. The future revenues from trade on the spot market is analysed using a load curve model, in which marginal costs are calculated on the basis of short-term costs of the available units and chronological hourly variations in the demands for electricity and heat. Assumptions on prices, marginal costs and electricity generation by the different types of generating units are studied for selected types of local electricity generators. The long-term revenue requirements to be met by long-term contracts are analysed using a traditional techno-economic optimisation model focusing on technology choice and competition among technologies over 20.30 years. A possible conclusion from this discussion is that it is important for the economic and environmental efficiency of the electricity market that local or regional generators of CHP, who are able to react on price signals, do not conclude long-term contracts that include fixed time-of-day tariff for sale of electricity. Optimisation results for a CHP region (represented by the structure of the Danish electricity and CHP market in 1995) also indicates that a market for CO 2 tradable permits is unlikely to attract major non-fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation, e.g. wind power. (au)

  5. FORECASTING ELECTRICITY PRICES IN DEREGULATED WHOLESALE SPOT ELECTRICITY MARKET - A REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Girish Godekere Panchakshara Murthy,

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the new framework of competitive electricity markets, all power market participants need accurate price forecasting tools. Electricity price forecasts characterize significant information that can help captive power producer, independent power producer, power generation companies, power distribution companies or open access consumers in careful planning of their bidding strategies for maximizing their profits, benefits and utilities from long term, medium term and short term perspective. Short term spot electricity price forecasting techniques are either inspired from electrical engineering literature (i.e. load forecasting or from economics literature (i.e. game theory models and the time-series econometric models. In this study we investigate the emergence of spot electricity markets with particular emphasis on Indian electricity market which has never been done before and review selected finance and econometrics inspired literature and models for forecasting electricity spot prices in deregulated wholesale spot electricity markets.

  6. A new index for electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Falbo, Paolo; Fattore, Marco; Stefani, Silvana

    2010-01-01

    Different indexes are used in electricity markets worldwide to represent the daily behavior of spot prices. However, the peculiarities of these markets require a careful choice of the index, based on mathematical formulation and its statistical properties. Choosing a bad index may influence the financial policies of market players, since derivative pricing and hedging performance can be deeply affected. In this paper with an initial theoretical analysis, we intend to show that the most widely used indexes (simple arithmetic average and weighted average with current volumes) are poor representatives of the spot market. We will then perform an analysis of the hedging strategy on a derivative instrument (an Asian option) written on a reference index. The resulting simulations, applied to OMEL (Spain) and EEX (Germany), are sufficiently clear cut to suggest that the decision to adopt an index to represent properly a market must be taken very carefully. Finally we will propose a new index (FAST index) and, after comparing it with the previous indexes, will show that both theoretically and practically this index can be taken as a good electricity market synthetic indicator. (author)

  7. Competition in electricity spot markets. Economic theory and international experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, Nils-Henrik von der; Harbord, David

    1998-09-01

    This publication gives a survey of economic theory and international experience connected to electricity spot markets. The main purpose is to consider the attempts that have been made to apply economic theory and empirical methods to the analysis of electricity markets, and to evaluate them in light of theoretical considerations and empirical evidence. The publication describes in simple terms the basic pool pricing mechanism, and experience with pools in a number of countries. It is worth emphasizing that it is not the purpose to treat in extensive detail the structure of electricity pools around the world. Key factors of the markets in England and Wales, Norway and Australia are described in order to allow for a comparison of design issues and evaluation of competitive performance. 80 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs.

  8. A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennedsen, Mikkel

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a new continuous-time mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility, and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, roughness, and our approach explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based model and a rough model. Further, through the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating – and making inference on – the degree of roughness. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial for accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model on recent data from six European energy exchanges and find statistical evidence of roughness in five out of six markets. As an application of our model, we show how, in these five markets, a rough component improves short term forecasting of the prices. - Highlights: • Statistical modeling of electricity spot prices • Multi-factor decomposition • Roughness • Electricity price forecasting

  9. Identification of electricity spot models by using convolution particle filter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.

    2011-01-01

    We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modied spot model. Using the martingale property of the modied price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. As the futures

  10. Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

    We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

  11. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  12. Reliability of copper based alloys for electric resistance spot welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovicj, M.; Mihajlovicj, A.; Sherbedzhija, B.

    1977-01-01

    Durability of copper based alloys (B-5 and B-6) for electric resistance spot-welding was examined. The total amount of Be, Ni and Zr was up to 2 and 1 wt.% respectively. Good durability and satisfactory quality of welded spots were obtained in previous laboratory experiments carried out on the fixed spot-welding machine of an industrial type (only B-5 alloy was examined). Electrodes made of both B-5 and B-6 alloy were tested on spot-welding grips and fixed spot-welding machines in Tvornica automobila Sarajevo (TAS). The obtained results suggest that the durability of electrodes made of B-5 and B-6 alloys is more than twice better than of that used in TAS

  13. Space-time modeling of electricity spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Haldrup, Niels

    In this paper we derive a space-time model for electricity spot prices. A general spatial Durbin model that incorporates the temporal as well as spatial lags of spot prices is presented. Joint modeling of space-time effects is necessarily important when prices and loads are determined in a network...... of power exchange areas. We use data from the Nord Pool electricity power exchange area bidding markets. Different spatial weight matrices are considered to capture the structure of the spatial dependence process across different bidding markets and statistical tests show significant spatial dependence...

  14. The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Kristiansen, Tarjei; Ilic, Marija D.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze 11 years of historical spot- and futures prices from the hydro-dominated Nord Pool electricity market. We find that futures prices tend to be higher than spot prices. The average convenience yield is therefore negative, but varies by season and depends on the storage levels in hydro reservoirs. The average realized return on holding a long position in the futures market is also negative. The negative convenience yield and risk premium contrast empirical findings in most other commodity markets. We argue that differences between the supply and demand sides in terms of risk preferences and the ability to take advantage of short-term price variations can contribute to explain the observed relationship between spot- and futures prices. In addition, our analysis shows that the relationship between spot and futures prices is clearly linked to the physical state of the system, such as hydro inflow, reservoir levels, and demand. (author)

  15. Modeling electricity spot and futures price dependence: A multifrequency approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malo, Pekka

    2009-11-01

    Electricity prices are known to exhibit multifractal properties. We accommodate this finding by investigating multifractal models for electricity prices. In this paper we propose a flexible Copula-MSM (Markov Switching Multifractal) approach for modeling spot and weekly futures price dynamics. By using a conditional copula function, the framework allows us to separately model the dependence structure, while enabling use of multifractal stochastic volatility models to characterize fluctuations in marginal returns. An empirical experiment is carried out using data from Nord Pool. A study of volatility forecasting performance for electricity spot prices reveals that multifractal techniques are a competitive alternative to GARCH models. We also demonstrate how the Copula-MSM model can be employed for finding optimal portfolios, which minimizes the Conditional Value-at-Risk.

  16. Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Haesun; Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2006-01-01

    Combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis, relationships among 11 U.S. spot market electricity prices are examined. Results suggest that the relationships among the markets vary by time frame. In contemporaneous time, the western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time frames these separations disappear, even though electricity transmission between the regions is limited. It appears the relationships among markets are not only a function of physical assets (such as transmissions lines among markets), but by similar and dissimilar institutional arrangements among the markets. (Author)

  17. Measuring competitiveness of the EPEX spot market for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graf, Christoph; Wozabal, David

    2013-01-01

    The issue of market concentration in electricity markets and resulting possible anti-competitive behavior of producers is a much discussed topic in many countries. We investigate the day-ahead market for electricity at the EPEX, the largest central European market for electricity. To analyze whether generating companies use their market power to influence prices, we use a conjectural variations approach as well as a direct approach to construct marginal costs of electricity production. Given the available data, we cannot reject the hypothesis that there was no systematic abuse of market power by the suppliers of electricity on the EPEX day-ahead spot market for the years 2007–2010. These results are essentially robust when restricting the sample to high load hours, which are generally considered to be the most prone to market manipulation. -- Highlights: •We investigate the efficiency of the German spot market for electricity. •We employ a conjectural variations approach and a fundamental market model. •Peak load hours and base load hours are analyzed separately. •We find that the market was competitive from 2007 to 2010 for both base and peak hours. •Policies to promote market transparency in Germany can be regarded as successful

  18. Hedging Performance and Multiscale Relationships in the German Electricity Spot and Futures Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mara Madaleno

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We explore optimal hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness for the German electricity market. Given the increasing attention that wavelets received in the financial market, we concentrate on the investigation of the relationship, covariance/coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach (discrete and continuous, between electricity spot and futures. Simpler approaches are also used for comparison purposes like the naïve, OLS and the dynamic multivariate GARCH model in order to account for risk reduction through hedging. Results allow us to conclude that: dynamic hedging strategies provide higher variance reductions in terms of hedging effectiveness; there is poor correlation among spot and futures, not being homogeneous across scales, which condition the effectiveness of the hedging strategy; the long-horizon hedge ratio does not converge to its long run equilibrium of one. Wavelets poor fit in variance reduction is attributed to low coherence and to statistical relationships between spot and futures electricity series. The instability found in various aspects of market comovements may imply serious limitations to the investor’s ability to exploit potential benefits from hedging with futures contracts in electricity markets. Moreover, much variation in the contemporaneous relationship among spot and futures may highlight inadequacy in assuming (short-term relationships in both markets, which might account for the difficulty in achieving profitable active trading.

  19. Modeling hourly Electricity Spot Market Prices as non stationary functional times series

    OpenAIRE

    Liebl, Dominik

    2010-01-01

    The instantaneous nature of electricity distinguishes its spot prices from spot prices for equities and other commodities. Up to now electricity cannot be stored economically and therefore demand for electricity has an untempered effect on electricity prices. In particular, hourly electricity spot prices show a vast range of dynamics which can change rapidly. In this paper we introduce a robust version of functional principal component analysis for sparse data. The functional perspective inte...

  20. Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    A two-step methodology for forecasting of electricity spot prices is introduced, with focus on the impact of predicted system load and wind power generation. The nonlinear and nonstationary influence of these explanatory variables is accommodated in a first step based on a nonparametric and time......-varying regression model. In a second step, time-series models, i.e., ARMA and Holt–Winters, are applied to account for residual autocorrelation and seasonal dynamics. Empirical results are presented for out-of-sample forecasts of day-ahead prices in the Western Danish price area of Nord Pool's Elspot, during a two...

  1. Value assessment of hydrogen-based electrical energy storage in view of electricity spot market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Hu, Junjie; Zong, Yi

    2016-01-01

    electricity spot market that has high price volatility due to its high share of wind power. An economic dispatch model is developed as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem to support the estimation of variable cost of such a system taking into account a good granularity of the technical details. Based...

  2. HMM filtering and parameter estimation of an electricity spot price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erlwein, Christina; Benth, Fred Espen; Mamon, Rogemar

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we develop a model for electricity spot price dynamics. The spot price is assumed to follow an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process with an added compound Poisson process. In this way, the model allows for mean-reversion and possible jumps. All parameters are modulated by a hidden Markov chain in discrete time. They are able to switch between different economic regimes representing the interaction of various factors. Through the application of reference probability technique, adaptive filters are derived, which in turn, provide optimal estimates for the state of the Markov chain and related quantities of the observation process. The EM algorithm is applied to find optimal estimates of the model parameters in terms of the recursive filters. We implement this self-calibrating model on a deseasonalised series of daily spot electricity prices from the Nordic exchange Nord Pool. On the basis of one-step ahead forecasts, we found that the model is able to capture the empirical characteristics of Nord Pool spot prices. (author)

  3. Structuring spot, short and long term gas contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gretener, N.M.

    1996-01-01

    A review of the core clauses of the modern natural gas purchase and sales contracts, was presented. There exists a wide variety of terms which can be used by a seller and a buyer to customize such a contract to suit particular circumstances. On the basis of length of term, gas contracts may classified as spot contracts having a term of 30 days or less, short term contracts having a term of 30 days to one to two years, and long term contracts having terms greater than two years. The three key elements which are applicable to all gas sales contracts are the contract price, the seller's obligation to deliver, and the buyer's obligation to accept. Other provisions that may be included in any gas sales contract in addition to the basic three were reviewed, including market pricing, load factor incentive pricing, seasonal pricing, pipeline demand charges, market shares, and the seller's right to decontract

  4. Spikes and memory in (Nord Pool) electricity price spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tomasso; Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar

    from the normal price, where the latter is defined as the expectation arising from a model accounting for long memory at the zero and at the weekly seasonal frequencies, given the knowledge of the past realizations. Hence, a spike is associated to a time series innovation with size larger than......Electricity spot prices are subject to transitory sharp movements commonly referred to as spikes. The paper aims at assessing their effects on model based inferences and predictions, with reference to the Nord Pool power exchange. We identify a spike as a price value which deviates substantially...... a specified threshold. The latter regulates the robustness of the estimates of the underlying price level and it is chosen by a data driven procedure that focuses on the ability to predict future prices. The normal price is computed by a modified Kalman filter, which robustifies the inferences by cleaning...

  5. The impact of heat waves on electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pechan, Anna; Eisenack, Klaus

    2014-01-01

    Thermoelectric power plants depend on cooling water drawn from water bodies. Low river run-off and/or high water temperatures limit a plant's production capacity. This problem may intensify with climate change. Our study quantifies the impact of forced capacity reductions on market prices, production costs, consumer and producer surplus, as well as emissions by means of a bottom-up power generation system model. First, we simulate the German electricity spot market during the heat wave of 2006. Then we conduct a sensitivity study that accounts for future climatic and technological conditions. We find an average price increase of 11% during the heat wave 2006, which is even more pronounced during times of peak demand. Production costs accumulate to an additional but moderate 16 m. Due to the price increase, producers gain from the heat wave, whereas consumers disproportionately bear the costs. Carbon emissions in the German electricity sector increase during the heat wave. The price and cost effects are more pronounced and increase significantly if assumptions on heat-sensitive demand, hydropower capacity, net exports, and capacity reductions are tightened. These are potential additional effects of climate change. Hence, if mitigation fails or is postponed globally, the impacts on the current energy system are very likely to rise. Increases in feed-in from renewable resources and demand-side management can counter the effects to a considerable degree. Countries with a shift toward a renewable energy supply can be expected to be much less susceptible to cooling water scarcity than those with a high share of nuclear and coal-fired power plants. - Highlights: • We quantify the impact of thermal capacity reductions on the electricity market. • German heat wave 2006 caused moderate rise in production costs. • Capacity reductions have substantial impact on prices and raise producer surplus. • Impacts on prices, production cost and surplus amplify under climate

  6. Automatic demand response referred to electricity spot price. Demo description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grande, Ove S.; Livik, Klaus; Hals, Arne

    2006-05-01

    This report presents background, technical solution and results from a test project (Demo I) developed in the DRR Norway) project. Software and technology from two different vendors, APAS and Powel ASA, are used to demonstrate a scheme for Automatic Demand Response (ADR) referred to spot price level and a system for documentation of demand response and cost savings. Periods with shortage of energy supply and hardly any investments in new production capacity have turned focus towards the need for increased price elasticity on the demand side in the Nordic power market. The new technology for Automatic Meter Reading (AMR) and Remote Load Control (RLC) provides an opportunity to improve the direct market participation from the demand side by introducing automatic schemes that reduce the need for customer attention to hourly market prices. The low prioritized appliances, and not the total load, are in this report defined as the Demand Response Objects, based on the assumption that there is a limit for what the customers are willing to pay for different uses of electricity. Only disconnection of residential water heaters is included in the demo, due to practical limitations. The test was performed for a group of single family houses over a period of 2 months. All the houses were equipped with a radio controlled 'Ebox' unit attached to the water heater socket. The settlement and invoicing were based on hourly metered values (kWh/h), which means that the customer benefit is equivalent to the accumulated changes in the electricity cost per hour. The actual load reduction is documented by comparison between the real meter values for the period and a reference curve. The curves show significant response to the activated control in the morning hours. In the afternoon it is more difficult to register the response, probably due to 'disturbing' activities like cooking etc. Demo I shows that load reduction referred to spot price level can be done in a smooth way. The experiences

  7. Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lilleberg, J.; Laitinen, E.K.

    1998-01-01

    Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers' right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

  8. Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lilleberg, J.; Laitinen, E.K. [Vaasa Univ. (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers` right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

  9. Price signals and investment incentives in wholesale electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vassilopoulos, Philippe

    2007-01-01

    We look at how prices from energy-only power markets can send the right signals and give the correct incentives for investments in production capacity. Through numerical simulations of spot prices over 2003-2005 we compare the investment signal sent by observed electricity prices in France and what would be competitive prices with an optimal mix and with the installed capacity. Observed prices tend to overestimate profitability for the base-load, making the signal too strong and underestimate profitability for the peak load, making the signal too weak. However, as a large share of consumers is still paying regulated tariffs, scarcity rents are capped. We simulate future prices for France for 2010 to 2020 to understand the incentives to invest. When the entry is free, the incentives to invest given by the future prices are consistent with the optimal mix including the interconnections and nuclear build is strong. With political or regulatory barriers to the construction of new power plants for new entrants (i.e. finding new sites), there are no incentives for the incumbent (that owns all existing base-load and peak load capacity) to add more nuclear capacity. In this situation, new entry would have to be coal or gas except if units are bid strategically to maintain profitability and market share. Moreover, it can also be profitable to limit prices and restrain entry in order to receive higher future revenues. When the base-load is less concentrated and instead of a dominant firm the nuclear capacity is divided into five (equal share) firms, the incentives to invest reappear and the threat of entry becomes more credible. (author) [fr

  10. Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norouzzadeh, Payam; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, Bahareh

    2007-01-01

    We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to numerically investigate correlation, persistence, multifractal properties and scaling behavior of the hourly spot prices for the Spain electricity exchange-Compania O Peradora del Mercado de Electricidad (OMEL). Through multifractal

  11. The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices: An exploratory analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien

    2010-01-01

    This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content.

  12. Optimal operation strategies of compressed air energy storage (CAES) on electricity spot markets with fluctuating prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Salgi, Georges; Elmegaard, Brian

    2009-01-01

    on electricity spot markets by storing energy when electricity prices are low and producing electricity when prices are high. In order to make a profit on such markets, CAES plant operators have to identify proper strategies to decide when to sell and when to buy electricity. This paper describes three...... plants will not be able to achieve such optimal operation, since the fluctuations of spot market prices in the coming hours and days are not known. Consequently, two simple practical strategies have been identified and compared to the results of the optimal strategy. This comparison shows that...... independent computer-based methodologies which may be used for identifying the optimal operation strategy for a given CAES plant, on a given spot market and in a given year. The optimal strategy is identified as the one which provides the best business-economic net earnings for the plant. In practice, CAES...

  13. Rough electricity: a new fractal multi-factor model of electricity spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennedsen, Mikkel

    We introduce a new mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, fractality, and our approach...... explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of Benth et al. (2007) and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein Uhlenbeck-based model and a fractal model. Further, through...... the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating - and making inference on - the degree of fractality. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial to accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model...

  14. Time-varying convergence in European electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.; Tamvakis, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Long-run dynamics of electricity prices are expected to reflect fuel price developments, since fuels generally account for a large share in the cost of generation. As an integrated European market for electricity develops, wholesale electricity prices should be converging as a result of market coupling and increased interconnectivity. Electricity mixes are also changing, spurred by a drive to significantly increase the share of renewables. Consequently, the electricity wholesale price dynamics are evolving, and the fuel–electricity price nexus that has been described in the literature is likely to reflect this evolution. This study investigates associations between spot prices from the British, French and Nordpool markets with those in connected electricity markets and fuel input prices, from December 2005 to October 2013. In order to assess the time-varying dynamics of electricity spot price series, localized autocorrelation functions are used. Electricity spot prices in the three markets are found to have stationary and non-stationary periods. When a trend in spot prices is observed, it is likely to reflect the trend in fuel prices. Cointegration analysis is then used to assess co-movement between electricity spot prices and fuel inputs to generation. The results show that British electricity spot prices are associated with fuel prices and not with price developments in connected markets, while the opposite is observed in the French and Nordpool day-ahead markets. - Highlights: • Electricity market integration policies may have altered EU spot electricity prices. • LACF is used to assess the changing nature of electricity spot prices. • EU electricity spot prices show both stationary and non-stationary periods. • Carbon and fuel prices have greater impact on British spot prices. • In continental Europe, electricity prices have decoupled from fuel prices.

  15. Elspot: Nord Pool Spot Integration in MASCEM Electricity Market Simulator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernandes, Ricardo; Santos, Gabriel; Praca, Isabel

    2014-01-01

    The energy sector in industrialized countries has been restructured in the last years, with the purpose of decreasing electricity prices through the increase in competition, and facilitating the integration of distributed energy resources. However, the restructuring process increased the complexity...... (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), a multi-agent based simulator that models real electricity markets. To reinforce MASCEM with the capability of recreating the elect ricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, it is crucial to make it able to simulate as many market...... models and player types as possible. This paper presents a new negotiation model implemented in MASCEM based on the negotiation model used in day-ahead market (Elspot) of Nord Pool. This is a key module to study competitive electricity markets, as it presents well defined and distinct characteristics...

  16. Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Kossmeier, Stephan; Obersteiner, Michael

    2004-01-01

    This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The results show that specifications, where each hour of the day is modelled separately present uniformly better forecasting properties than specifications for the whole time-series, and that the inclusion of simple probabilistic processes for the arrival of extreme price events can lead to improvements in the forecasting abilities of univariate models for electricity spot prices. (Author)

  17. Generation Companies’ Operative Strategies in the Spot Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tovar-Hernández J.H.

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In traditional regulation the obligation to meet the consumer demand was assumed, this guaranteed to generation companies the full recovery of their costs. However, in order to achieve greater efficiency, reduce the price of electricity, meet the continuously growing electricity consumption, and equalize prices in different regions, a new structure of the electricity industry has been created, where electric energy is traded through a market. Generation company’s future cash flows depend on day to day market participation, in order to satisfy all of their financial and economic requirements. In this paper, future cash flows required to fulfill with economic and financial commitments by a generation company immerse in this new market structure are studied. For this purpose, future cash flows are considered to be dependent on a single asset: electricity. Several scenarios with different fuel prices are generated in order to estimate the generation company’s future cash flows. The response of the competing generation companies is taken into account at each scenario. The fuel price changes are modelled using a concurrent binary tree.

  18. The charging security study of electric vehicle charging spot based on automatic testing platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yulan; Yang, Zhangli; Zhu, Bin; Ran, Shengyi

    2018-03-01

    With the increasing of charging spots, the testing of charging security and interoperability becomes more and more urgent and important. In this paper, an interface simulator for ac charging test is designed, the automatic testing platform for electric vehicle charging spots is set up and used to test and analyze the abnormal state during the charging process. On the platform, the charging security and interoperability of ac charging spots and IC-CPD can be checked efficiently, the test report can be generated automatically with No artificial reading error. From the test results, the main reason why the charging spot is not qualified is that the power supply cannot be cut off in the prescribed time when the charging anomaly occurs.

  19. Electricity storages - optimised operation based on spot market prices; Stromspeicher. Optimierte Fahrweise auf Basis der Spotmarktpreise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernhard, Dominik; Roon, Serafin von [FfE Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft e.V., Muenchen (Germany)

    2010-06-15

    With its integrated energy and climate package the last federal government set itself ambitious goals for the improvement of energy efficiency and growth of renewable energy production. These goals were confirmed by the new government in its coalition agreement. However, they can only be realised if the supply of electricity from fluctuating renewable sources can be made to coincide with electricity demand. Electricity storages are therefore an indispensable component of the future energy supply system. This article studies the optimised operation of an electricity storage based on spot market prices and the influence of wind power production up to the year 2020.

  20. Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

    2007-01-01

    Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

  1. Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrieu, Jeremy

    In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

  2. Influence of TCSC on congestion and spot price in electricity market with bilateral contract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acharya, Naresh; Mithulananthan, Nadarajah

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the effect of TCSC on congestion and spot price in deregulated electricity markets. The paper could also be considered as a comprehensive tutorial on the influence of TCSC in electricity market. A voluntary pool market, where the market participants can trade electricity either via a pool or through bilateral contracts is considered. The electricity market is modeled in an optimal power flow framework with the objective of maximizing the social welfare. In such formulation, the Lagrange operators associated with the equality constraints associated with real power balance give the spot prices of energy at each bus of the system. Studies are carried out with and without TCSC at peak and low loading conditions to capture the influence and to see the effectiveness of TCSC at different loading conditions. The paper further explores the effect of TCSC compensation level on the spot prices and the congestion under varying pool and bilateral loading conditions. A 5-bus test system is used for numerical studies and to showcase the influence of TCSC in an electricity market environment. (author)

  3. Evaluating the market splitting determinants: evidence from the Iberian spot electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho; Silva, Patrícia Pereira da; Cerqueira, Pedro A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to assess the main determinants on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. Iberia stands as an ideal case-study, where the high level deployment of wind power is observed, together with the implementation of the market splitting arrangement between the Portuguese and the Spanish spot electricity markets. Logit and non-parametric models are used to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices as a function of the explanatory variables representing the main technologies in the generation mix: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power, together with the available transfer capacity and electricity demand. Logit models give preliminary indications about market splitting behaviour, and then, notwithstanding the demanding computational challenge, a non-parametric model is applied in order to overcome the limitations of the former models. Results show an increase of market splitting probability with higher wind power generation or, more generally, with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity such as nuclear power generation. The European interconnection capacity target of 10% of the peak demand of the smallest interconnected market might be insufficient to maintain electricity market integration. Therefore, pro-active coordination policies, governing both interconnections and renewables deployment, should be further developed. -- Highlights: •Assess determinants on market splitting behaviour of Iberian electricity markets. •Logit and non-parametric models to express market splitting probability response. •Explanatory variables: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power; ATC and demand. •Results: increase of market splitting probability with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity. •Coordination policies governing both interconnections and renewables deployment

  4. Electricity deregulation, spot price patterns and demand-side management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Y.; Flynn, P.C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines extensive hourly or half-hourly power price data from 14 deregulated power markets. It analyzes average diurnal patterns, relationship to system load, volatility, and consistency over time. Diurnal patterns indicate the average price spread between off-peak and on-peak and weekend vs. weekday power consumption. Volatility is measured by price velocity: the average normalized hourly change in power price, calculated daily. The calculated price velocity is broken down into an expected component that arises from the diurnal pattern and an unexpected component that arises from unknown factors. The analysis reveals significant differences among markets, suggesting that demand-side management (DSM) of power consumption is far more difficult in some markets than in others. At one extreme, Spain, Britain and Scandinavia show consistent diurnal price patterns, a stable relationship between price and system load, and a low unexplained component of price volatility. A power consumer in these markets could form a reasonable expectation of a reward for DSM of elective power consumption. At the other extreme, two markets in Australia show erratic diurnal price patterns from year to year, low correlation between price and system load, and a high amount of unexpected price velocity. A power consumer in these markets would have far greater difficulty in realizing a benefit from DSM. Markets that experienced one period of very high prices without a clear external cause, such as California and Alberta, appear to have a significant longer-term erosion of public support for deregulation. (author)

  5. A study on electricity export capability of the μCHP system with spot price

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Træholt, Chresten; Poulsen, Bjarne

    2009-01-01

    When a number of muCHP systems are aggregated as a virtual power plant (VPP), they will be able to participate in the electricity wholesale market with no discrimination compared to conventional large power plants. Hence, this paper investigates the electricity export capability of the muCHP system...... when the electricity buyback price is given at a value equalizing the dynamic spot price. A muCHP system is modeled with optimized generation, and the marginal price of electricity export for such system is explained. A sensitivity analysis of several key factors, e.g. fuel price, heat to power ratio...... of the muCHP unit, which influence the export capability of muCHP system, is firstly carried out in the intraday case study, followed by the annual case study which explores the annual system performance. The results show that the electricity export capability of a muCHP system is closely related to its...

  6. High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutler, Nicholas J.; Boerema, Nicholas D.; MacGill, Iain F.; Outhred, Hugh R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores wind power integration issues for the South Australian (SA) region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) by assessing the interaction of regional wind generation, electricity demand and spot prices over 2 recent years of market operation. SA's wind energy penetration has recently surpassed 20% and it has only a limited interconnection with other regions of the NEM. As such, it represents an interesting example of high wind penetration in a gross wholesale pool market electricity industry. Our findings suggest that while electricity demand continues to have the greatest influence on spot prices in SA, wind generation levels have become a significant secondary influence, and there is an inverse relationship between wind generation and price. No clear relationship between wind generation and demand has been identified although some periods of extremely high demand may coincide with lower wind generation. Periods of high wind output are associated with generally lower market prices, and also appear to contribute to extreme negative price events. The results highlight the importance of electricity market and renewable policy design in facilitating economically efficient high wind penetrations. - Highlights: → In South Australia (SA) wind generation is having an influence on market prices. → Little or no correlation is found between wind generation and demand. → Wind farms in SA are receiving a lower average price than in other States. → The results highlight the importance of appropriate electricity market design.

  7. Interactions between the German Electricity Spot Market and the Reserve Energy Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graeber, Bernhardt

    2005-01-01

    Eight years after market opening, Germany has well established spot and future markets for electricity. Besides OTC and Internet broker platforms the main market place is the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig (EEX) with its spot and future market. Less known is the reserve energy market in Germany. The four German transmission system operators (TSOs) EnBW, EON, RWE and Vattenfall purchase network services on the reserve energy market. Products with specific technical requirements are primary, secondary and tertiary reserve. (Details about the technical requirements and typical means for providing the required services will be presented.) Each TSO organises a separate auction for these products - for primary and secondary reserve half-yearly, for tertiary reserve daily. Due to the technical requirements the liquidity on these markets is limited, but especially on the tertiary reserve market it is recently growing significantly due to new participants marketing several smaller municipal and industrial reserve power plants as combined bids which meet the 30 MW min. capacity requirement. Every power plant or interruptible load could not only be offered as capacity on the reserve market but could also be dispatched for the spot market. Therefore the developments of prices on these markets are not independent and opportunity costs against the spot market can be estimated for different type of plants bidding in the reserve market. Another interaction between reserve and spot market is caused by the balancing price system in Germany. Prices for balancing energy meeting deviations between load, trading balance and production of a market participant are based on quarter-hourly reserve energy costs encountered by the TSO. As unbiased load and production forecasts are not strictly enforced by the TSOs so far, part of the planned demand could be met with balancing energy if EEX spot market prices rise above expected balancing energy prices. This interrelationship has a

  8. Bilateral contracts and the spot market for electricity: some observations on the British and the NordPool experiences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herguera, Inigo

    2000-01-01

    The performance of the futures and the spot market for electricity in England and Wales (EW) and in the Nordic countries have significant differences in terms of volumes traded and evolution of prices. Even though the institutional arrangements show significant differences and the data collected has important limitations we observe in EW for 1990-199 that as the coverage via bilateral contracts diminished, spot prices tended to increase, there was higher price volatility and an increasing number of plants were declared unavailable. In the NordPool, by contrast, market structure is more distributed, the bilateral contract price has tended to smooth the volatility in the spot price and a very diverse pattern behavior of prices has been observed. We interpret these observations as additional support in favor of the theoretical result by and Vila (Journal of Economic Theory 59 (1993) 1), but hint at the possibility of strategies by the firms that can diminish the welfare enhancing properties of this new bilateral market. (Author)

  9. Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diongue, Abdou Ka [Universite Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis, UFR SAT, BP 234, Saint-Louis Senegal and Research Fellow at Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane QLD 4001 (Australia); Guegan, Dominique [Paris School of economics, CES-MSE, Universite Paris1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, 106 boulevard de l' Hopital, 75647 Paris, Cedex 13 (France); Vignal, Bertrand [Ingenieur EDF R and D, 1 avenue du general de Gaulle, 92141 Clamart cedex (France)

    2009-04-15

    In this article, we investigate conditional mean and conditional variance forecasts using a dynamic model following a k-factor GIGARCH process. Particularly, we provide the analytical expression of the conditional variance of the prediction error. We apply this method to the German electricity price market for the period August 15, 2000-December 31, 2002 and we test spot prices forecasts until one-month ahead forecast. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA-GARCH benchmark model using the year 2003 as the out-of-sample. The proposed model outperforms clearly the benchmark model. We conclude that the k-factor GIGARCH process is a suitable tool to forecast spot prices, using the classical RMSE criteria. (author)

  10. Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso

    2010-01-01

    The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

  11. Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Ziel, Florian; Steinert, Rick; Husmann, Sven

    2015-01-01

    In our paper we analyze the relationship between the day-ahead electricity price of the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) and other day-ahead electricity prices in Europe. We focus on markets, which settle their prices after the EXAA, which enables traders to include the EXAA price into their calculations. For each market we employ econometric models to incorporate the EXAA price and compare them with their counterparts without the price of the Austrian exchange. By employing a forecasting study...

  12. Effect of electrical spot welding on load deflection rate of orthodontic wires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alavi, Shiva; Abrishami, Arezoo

    2015-01-01

    One of the methods used for joining metals together is welding, which can be carried out using different techniques such as electric spot welding. This study evaluated the effect of electric spot welding on the load deflection rate of stainless steel and chromium-cobalt orthodontic wires. In this experimental-laboratory study, load deflection rate of 0.016 × 0.022 inch stainless steel and chromium cobalt wires were evaluated in five groups (n =18): group one: Stainless steel wires, group two: chromium-cobalt wires, group three: stainless steel wires welded to stainless steel wires, group four: Stainless steel wires welded to chromium-cobalt wires, group five: chromium-cobalt wire welded to chromium-cobalt wires. Afterward, the forces induced by the samples in 0.5 mm, 1 mm, 1.5 mm deflection were measured using a universal testing machine. Then mean force measured for each group was compared with other groups. The data were analyzed using repeated measure analysis of variance (ANOVA), one-way ANOVA, and paired t-test by the SPSS software. The significance level was set as 0.05. The Tukey test showed that there were significant differences between the load deflection rates of welded groups compared to control ones (P wires increased their load deflection rates.

  13. An empirical comparison of alternative schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowotarski, Jakub; Raviv, Eran; Trück, Stefan; Weron, Rafał

    2014-01-01

    In this comprehensive empirical study we critically evaluate the use of forecast averaging in the context of electricity prices. We apply seven averaging and one selection scheme and perform a backtesting analysis on day-ahead electricity prices in three major European and US markets. Our findings support the additional benefit of combining forecasts of individual methods for deriving more accurate predictions, however, the performance is not uniform across the considered markets and periods. In particular, equally weighted pooling of forecasts emerges as a simple, yet powerful technique compared with other schemes that rely on estimated combination weights, but only when there is no individual predictor that consistently outperforms its competitors. Constrained least squares regression (CLS) offers a balance between robustness against such well performing individual methods and relatively accurate forecasts, on average better than those of the individual predictors. Finally, some popular forecast averaging schemes – like ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) – turn out to be unsuitable for predicting day-ahead electricity prices. - Highlights: • So far the most extensive study on combining forecasts for electricity spot prices • 12 stochastic models, 8 forecast combination schemes and 3 markets considered • Our findings support the additional benefit of combining forecasts for deriving more accurate predictions • Methods that allow for unconstrained weights, such as OLS averaging, should be avoided • We recommend a backtesting exercise to identify the preferred forecast averaging method for the data at hand

  14. Modeling of electric and heat processes in spot resistance welding of cross-wire steel bars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iatcheva, Ilona; Darzhanova, Denitsa; Manilova, Marina

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this work is the modeling of coupled electric and heat processes in a system for spot resistance welding of cross-wire reinforced steel bars. The real system geometry, dependences of material properties on the temperature, and changes of contact resistance and released power during the welding process have been taken into account in the study. The 3D analysis of the coupled AC electric and transient thermal field distributions is carried out using the finite element method. The novel feature is that the processes are modeled for several successive time stages, corresponding to the change of contact area, related contact resistance, and reduction of the released power, occurring simultaneously with the creation of contact between the workpieces. The values of contact resistance and power changes have been determined on the basis of preliminary experimental and theoretical investigations. The obtained results present the electric and temperature field distributions in the system. Special attention has been paid to the temperature evolution at specified observation points and lines in the contact area. The obtained information could be useful for clarification of the complicated nature of interrelated electric, thermal, mechanical, and physicochemical welding processes. Adequate modeling is also an opportunity for proper control and improvement of the system.

  15. Analysis of M-stationary points to an EPEC modeling oligopolistic competition in an electricity spot market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Henrion, R.; Outrata, Jiří; Surowiec, T.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 2 (2012), s. 295-317 ISSN 1292-8119 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/09/1957 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints * EPEC * M-stationary solutions * electricity spot market * calmness Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.282, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/outrata-analysis of m-stationary points to an epec modeling oligopolistic competition in an electricity spot market.pdf

  16. Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the inter-relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM): namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria using the constant conditional correlation and Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) and Engle's (Engle, R., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 339-350.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model which takes account of the Student t specification produces the best results. At the univariate GARCH(1,1) level, the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets. In the dynamic conditional correlation equation, the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well-connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well-interconnected markets. (author)

  17. Aggregators’ Optimal Bidding Strategy in Sequential Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Spot Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaolin Ayón

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a probabilistic optimization method that produces optimal bidding curves to be submitted by an aggregator to the day-ahead electricity market and the intraday market, considering the flexible demand of his customers (based in time dependent resources such as batteries and shiftable demand and taking into account the possible imbalance costs as well as the uncertainty of forecasts (market prices, demand, and renewable energy sources (RES generation. The optimization strategy aims to minimize the total cost of the traded energy over a whole day, taking into account the intertemporal constraints. The proposed formulation leads to the solution of different linear optimization problems, following the natural temporal sequence of electricity spot markets. Intertemporal constraints regarding time dependent resources are fulfilled through a scheduling process performed after the day-ahead market clearing. Each of the different problems is of moderate dimension and requires short computation times. The benefits of the proposed strategy are assessed comparing the payments done by an aggregator over a sample period of one year following different deterministic and probabilistic strategies. Results show that probabilistic strategy reports better benefits for aggregators participating in power markets.

  18. Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

  19. Dynamic Hybrid Model for Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Marin Cerjan; Marin Matijaš; Marko Delimar

    2014-01-01

    Accurate forecasting tools are essential in the operation of electric power systems, especially in deregulated electricity markets. Electricity price forecasting is necessary for all market participants to optimize their portfolios. In this paper we propose a hybrid method approach for short-term hourly electricity price forecasting. The paper combines statistical techniques for pre-processing of data and a multi-layer (MLP) neural network for forecasting electricity price and price spike det...

  20. Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates different financial price and time series models, such as mean reversion, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), integrated ARMA (ARIMA) and general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, usually applied for electricity price simulations. However, as these models are developed to describe the stochastic behaviour of electricity prices, they are extended by a separate data treatment for the deterministic components (trend, daily, weekly and annual cycles) of electricity spot prices. Furthermore price jumps are considered and implemented within a regime-switching model. Since 2008 market design allows for negative prices at the European Energy Exchange, which also occurred for several hours in the last years. Up to now, only a few financial and time series approaches exist, which are able to capture negative prices. This paper presents a new approach incorporating negative prices. The evaluation of the different approaches presented points out that the mean reversion and the ARMA models deliver the lowest mean root square error between simulated and historical electricity spot prices gained from the European Energy Exchange. These models posses also lower mean average errors than GARCH models. Hence, they are more suitable to simulate well-fitting price paths. Furthermore it is shown that the daily structure of historical price curves is better captured applying ARMA or ARIMA processes instead of mean-reversion or GARCH models. Another important outcome of the paper is that the regime-switching approach and the consideration of negative prices via the new proposed approach lead to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation. - Highlights: ► Considering negative prices improves the results of time-series and financial models for electricity prices. ► Regime-switching approach captures the jumps and base prices quite well. ► Removing and separate modelling of deterministic annual, weekly and daily

  1. Hot spot model of MagLIF implosions: Nernst term effect on magnetic flux losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Rubio, Fernando; Sanz Recio, Javier; Betti, Riccardo

    2016-10-01

    An analytical model of a collisional plasma being compressed by a cylindrical liner is proposed and solved in a magnetized liner inertial fusion-like context. The implosion is assumed to be isobaric, and the magnetic diffusion is confined to a thin layer near the liner. Both unmagnetized and magnetized plasma cases are considered. The model reduces to a system of two partial differential equations for temperature and magnetic field. Special attention is given to the effect of the Nernst term on the evolution of the magnetic field. Scaling laws for temperature, magnetic field, hot spot mass increase and magnetic field losses are obtained. The temperature and magnetic field spatial profiles tend to a self-similar state. It is found that when the Nernst term is taken into account, the magnetic field is advected towards the liner, and the magnetic flux losses are independent of the magnetic Lewis number. Research supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Project No. ENE2014-54960R. Acknowledgements to the Laboratory of Laser Energetics (Rochester) for its hospitality.

  2. Research on spot power market equilibrium model considering the electric power network characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chengmin; Jiang, Chuanwen; Chen, Qiming

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium is the optimum operational condition for the power market by economics rule. A realistic spot power market cannot achieve the equilibrium condition due to network losses and congestions. The impact of the network losses and congestion on spot power market is analyzed in this paper in order to establish a new equilibrium model considering the network loss and transmission constraints. The OPF problem formulated according to the new equilibrium model is solved by means of the equal price principle. A case study on the IEEE-30-bus system is provided in order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach. (author)

  3. A Nondestructive Evaluation Method: Measuring the Fixed Strength of Spot-Welded Joint Points by Surface Electrical Resistivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimamoto, Akira; Yamashita, Keitaro; Inoue, Hirofumi; Yang, Sung-Mo; Iwata, Masahiro; Ike, Natsuko

    2013-04-01

    Destructive tests are generally applied to evaluate the fixed strength of spot-welding nuggets of zinc-plated steel (which is a widely used primary structural material for automobiles). These destructive tests, however, are expensive and time-consuming. This paper proposes a nondestructive method for evaluating the fixed strength of the welded joints using surface electrical resistance. A direct current nugget-tester and probes have been developed by the authors for this purpose. The proposed nondestructive method uses the relative decrease in surface electrical resistance, α . The proposed method also considers the effect of the corona bond. The nugget diameter is estimated by two factors: R Quota , which is calculated from variation of resistance, and a constant that represents the area of the corona bond. Since the maximum tensile strength is correlated with the nugget diameter, it can be inferred from the estimated nugget diameter. When appropriate measuring conditions for the surface electrical resistance are chosen, the proposed method can effectively evaluate the fixed strength of the spot-welded joints even if the steel sheet is zinc-plated.

  4. Impacts of subsidized renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany: evidence from a Garch model with panel data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Thao; Lemoine, Killian

    2015-01-01

    Electricity generated by renewable energy sources creates a downward pressure on wholesale prices through - the so-called 'merit order effect'. This effect tends to lower average power prices and average market revenue that renewables producers should have received, making integration costs of renewables very high at large penetration rate. It is therefore crucial to determine the amplitude of this merit order effect particularly in the context of increasing burden of renewable support policies borne by final consumers. Using hourly data for the period 2009-2012 in German electricity wholesale market for GARCH model under panel data framework, we find that wind and solar power generation injected into German electricity network during this period induces a decrease of electricity spot prices and a slight increase of their volatility. The model-based results suggest that the merit-order effect created by renewable production ranges from 3.86 to 8.34 euro/MWh which implies to the annual volume of consumers' surplus from 1.89 to 3.92 billion euros. However this surplus has not been re-distributed equally among different types of electricity consumers. (authors)

  5. IEEE Standard Dictionary of Electrical and Electronics Terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., New York, NY.

    This dictionary, prepared by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE), defines 13,000 technical words from every area of electrical and electronics engineering. The dictionary contains hundreds of new terms as well as revisions of earlier ones. Each definition is an official standard of IEEE. The definitions are arranged…

  6. Long-term Comparison of a Large Spot Vacuum Assisted Handpiece vs the Small Spot Size Traditional Handpiece of the 800 nm Diode Laser.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youssef, Nour J; Rizk, Alain G; Ibrahimi, Omar A; Tannous, Zeina S

    2017-09-01

    BACKGROUND The 800 nm long-pulsed diode laser machine is safe and effective for permanent hair reduction. Traditionally, most long-pulsed diode lasers used for hair removal had a relatively small spot size. Recently, a long-pulsed diode laser with a large spot size and vacuum assisted suction handpiece was introduced. The treatment parameters of each type of handpiece differ. Short and long-term clinical efficacy, treatment associated pain, and patient satisfaction are important factors to be considered. This study aims to conduct a direct head to head comparison of both handpieces of the 800nm long-pulsed diode laser by evaluating long term hair reduction, treatment associated pain and patient satisfaction. Thirteen subjects were enrolled in this prospective, self-controlled, single-center study of axillary laser hair removal. The study involved 4 treatments using a long pulsed diode laser with a large spot size HS handpiece (single pass), HS handpiece (double pass), and a small spot size ET handpiece according to a randomized choice. The treatment sessions were done at 4-8 week intervals with follow up visits taken at 6 and 12 months after the last treatment session. Hair clearance and thickness analysis were assessed using macro hair count photographs taken at baseline visit, at each treatment session visit and at follow up visits. Other factors including pain, treatment duration, and patients' preference were secondary study endpoints. At 6 months follow up visits after receiving four laser treatments, there was statistically significant hair clearance in the three treatment arms with 66.1 % mean percentage hair reduction with the ET handpiece, 43.6% with the HSS (single pass) and 64.1 % with the HSD (double). However, at one year follow up, the results significantly varied from the 6 months follow up. The mean percentage hair reduction was 57.8% with the ET handpiece treated axillas (n=9), 16.5% with the HSS (single pass) handpiece treated axillas (n=7), and

  7. Long term waste problems from electricity production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1983-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are developed for high level waste, low level waste, and radon emission problems from nuclear power, for chemical carcinogens and radon emissions from the ashes produced in coal burning, from chemical carcinogens released in the eventual disposal of photovoltaic cells, and from the effects of coal burning and in producing and deploying photovoltaic arrays. The cancer risk per quantity ingested or inhaled is taken from standard sources, and the transfer rates from the ground to human ingestion are derived from geochemical analogs. Results are given in deaths per GWe-yr obtained from integrating effects over many millions of years, and only over the next 500 years. It is found that wastes from nuclear power cause thousands of times fewer deaths than do the wastes from coal burning and photovoltaic electricity generation. Mining uranium for nuclear fuel reduces future radon exposures, thereby saving hundreds of times as many lives as will be lost from nuclear wastes

  8. A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azevedo, F.; Vale, Z.A.; Khodr, H.M.; Oliveira, P.B. Moura

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn. (author)

  9. Near-Term Electric Vehicle Program. Phase II: Mid-Term Summary Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1978-08-01

    The Near Term Electric Vehicle (NTEV) Program is a constituent elements of the overall national Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Program that is being implemented by the Department of Energy in accordance with the requirements of the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research, Development, and Demonstration Act of 1976. Phase II of the NTEV Program is focused on the detailed design and development, of complete electric integrated test vehicles that incorporate current and near-term technology, and meet specified DOE objectives. The activities described in this Mid-Term Summary Report are being carried out by two contractor teams. The prime contractors for these contractor teams are the General Electric Company and the Garrett Corporation. This report is divided into two discrete parts. Part 1 describes the progress of the General Electric team and Part 2 describes the progress of the Garrett team.

  10. The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugger, Catherine; Forsman, Eric D.; Franklin, Alan B.; Davis, Raymond J.; White, Gary C.; Schwarz, Carl J.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Doherty, Paul F.; Bailey, Larissa; Clark, Darren A.; Ackers, Steven H.; Andrews, Lawrence S.; Augustine, Benjamin; Biswell, Brian L.; Blakesley, Jennifer; Carlson, Peter C.; Clement, Matthew J.; Diller, Lowell V.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Green, Adam; Gremel, Scott A.; Herter, Dale R.; Higley, J. Mark; Hobson, Jeremy; Horn, Rob B.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; McCafferty, Christopher; McDonald, Trent; McDonnell, Kevin; Olson, Gail S.; Reid, Janice A.; Rockweit, Jeremy; Ruiz, Viviana; Saenz, Jessica; Sovern, Stan G.

    2016-01-01

    covariates. In contrast, meta-analysis results suggested that Spotted Owl survival was higher across all study areas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a warming phase and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative, with a strongly negative SOI indicative of El Niño events. The best model that included the Barred Owl covariate (BO) was ranked 4th and also included the PDO covariate, but the BO effect was strongly negative. Our results indicated that Northern Spotted Owl populations were declining throughout the range of the subspecies and that annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. We observed strong evidence that Barred Owls negatively affected Spotted Owl populations, primarily by decreasing apparent survival and increasing local territory extinction rates. However, the amount of suitable owl habitat, local weather, and regional climatic patterns also were related to survival, occupancy (via colonization rate), recruitment, and, to a lesser extent, fecundity, although there was inconsistency in regard to which covariates were important for particular demographic parameters or across study areas. In the study areas where habitat was an important source of variation for Spotted Owl demographics, vital rates were generally positively associated with a greater amount of suitable owl habitat. However, Barred Owl densities may now be high enough across the range of the Northern Spotted Owl that, despite the continued management and conservation of suitable owl habitat on federal lands, the long-term prognosis for the persistence of Northern Spotted Owls may be in question without additional management intervention. Based on our study, the removal of Barred Owls from the Green Diamond Resources (GDR) study area had rapid, positive effects on Northern Spotted Owl survival and the rate of population change, supporting the hypothesis that, along with habitat conservation and management, Barred Owl removal may be able to slow or reverse

  11. Near-term electric vehicle program: Phase I, final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlett, B. H.; Murry, R.

    1977-08-01

    A final report is given for an Energy Research and Development Administration effort aimed at a preliminary design of an energy-efficient electric commuter car. An electric-powered passenger vehicle using a regenerative power system was designed to meet the near-term ERDA electric automobile goals. The program objectives were to (1) study the parameters that affect vehicle performance, range, and cost; (2) design an entirely new electric vehicle that meets performance and economic requirements; and (3) define a program to develop this vehicle design for production in the early 1980's. The design and performance features of the preliminary (baseline) electric-powered passenger vehicle design are described, including the baseline power system, system performance, economic analysis, reliability and safety, alternate designs and options, development plan, and conclusions and recommendations. All aspects of the baseline design were defined in sufficient detail to verify performance expectations and system feasibility.

  12. MODELADO DEL PRECIO SPOT DE LA ELECTRICIDAD EN BRASIL USANDO UNA RED NEURONAL AUTORREGRESIVA ELECTRICITY SPOT PRICE MODELLING IN BRASIL USING AN AUTOREGRESSIVE NEURAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan D Velásquez

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Una red neuronal autorregresiva es estimada para el precio mensual brasileño de corto plazo de la electricidad, la cual describe mejor la dinámica de los precios que un modelo lineal autorregresivo y que un perceptrón multicapa clásico que usan las mismas entradas y neuronas en la capa oculta. El modelo propuesto es especificado usando un procedimiento estadístico basado en el contraste del radio de verosimilitud. El modelo pasa una batería de pruebas de diagnóstico. El procedimiento de especificación propuesto permite seleccionar el número de unidades en la capa oculta y las entradas a la red neuronal, usando pruebas estadísticas que tienen en cuenta la cantidad de los datos y el ajuste del modelo a la serie de precios. La especificación del modelo final demuestra que el precio para el próximo mes es una función no lineal del precio actual, de la energía afluente actual y de la energía almacenada en el embalse equivalente en el mes actual y dos meses atrás.An autoregressive neural network model is estimated for the monthly Brazilian electricity spot price, which describes the prices dynamics better than a linear autoregressive model and a classical multilayer perceptron using the same input and neurons in the hidden layer. The proposed model is specified using a statistical procedure based on a likelihood ratio test. The model passes a battery of diagnostic tests. The proposed specification procedure allows us to select the number of units in hidden layer and the inputs to the neural network based on statistical tests, taking into account the number of data and the model fitting to the price time series. The final model specification demonstrates that the price for the next month is a nonlinear function of the current price, the current energy inflow, and the energy saved in the equivalent reservoir in the current month and two months ago.

  13. Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soytas, Ugur; Oran, Adil

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, our results show that the Cheung-Ng procedure with the use of disaggregated stock index returns can uncover new information that went unnoticed with the traditional causality tests using aggregated market indices. (author)

  14. Forecasting spot electricity prices : Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lago Garcia, J.; De Ridder, Fjo; De Schutter, B.H.K.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a novel modeling framework for forecasting electricity prices is proposed. While many predictive models have been already proposed to perform this task, the area of deep learning algorithms remains yet unexplored. To fill this scientific gap, we propose four different deep learning

  15. The effect of electric spot-welding on the mechanical properties of different orthodontic wire alloys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonard Euler Andrade Gomes Nascimento

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that there is a direct relationship between surface structure and tensile strength of orthodontic alloys submitted to different levels of welding current. Three types of alloys were assessed. One hundred and eight cross-sectional test specimens ("X" were made, 18 for each wire combination, and divided into 6 groups: SS (steel-steel; SN (steel-NiTi; SB (steel-Beta-Ti; NN (NiTi-NiTi; NB (NiTi-Beta-Ti and BB (Beta-Ti-Beta-Ti, submitted to 6 spot-welding procedures at different levels of current (Super Micro Ponto 3000. Student-Newman-Keuls, Wilcoxon signed-rank, and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used (p < .05. Statistical difference was found between SN group and all the other alloy combinations (p < .05. Initial roughness of alloys ranged from .04 to .55 Ra, with statistical difference between groups (p < .001. The hypothesis was rejected and the tensile strength of Ti-alloys combinations Steel × Beta-Ti was significantly affected by the current level at P50, which changed the properties and structure of the wires.

  16. Dynamic Hybrid Model for Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Cerjan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Accurate forecasting tools are essential in the operation of electric power systems, especially in deregulated electricity markets. Electricity price forecasting is necessary for all market participants to optimize their portfolios. In this paper we propose a hybrid method approach for short-term hourly electricity price forecasting. The paper combines statistical techniques for pre-processing of data and a multi-layer (MLP neural network for forecasting electricity price and price spike detection. Based on statistical analysis, days are arranged into several categories. Similar days are examined by correlation significance of the historical data. Factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including historical price factors, load factors and wind production factors are discussed. A price spike index (CWI is defined for spike detection and forecasting. Using proposed approach we created several forecasting models of diverse model complexity. The method is validated using the European Energy Exchange (EEX electricity price data records. Finally, results are discussed with respect to price volatility, with emphasis on the price forecasting accuracy.

  17. Decreased Spontaneous Electrical Activity and Acetylcholine at Myofascial Trigger Spots after Dry Needling Treatment: A Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Guang Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aims of this study are to investigate the changes in spontaneous electrical activities (SEAs and in acetylcholine (ACh, acetylcholine receptor (AChR, and acetylcholine esterase (AChE levels after dry needling at myofascial trigger spots in model rats. Materials and Methods. Forty-eight male Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into four groups. Thirty-six rats were assigned to three model groups, which underwent MTrSs modeling intervention. Twelve rats were assigned to the blank control (BC group. After model construction, the 36 model rats were randomly subdivided into three groups according to treatment: MTrSs model control (MC and two dry needling groups. One dry needling group received puncturing at MTrSs (DN-M, whereas the other underwent puncturing at non-MTrSs (DN-nM. Dry needling treatment will last for two weeks, once a week. SEAs and ACh, AChR, and AChE levels were measured after one-week rest of dry needling treatment. Results. The amplitudes and frequencies of endplate noise (EPN and endplate spike (EPS significantly decreased after dry needling treatment in the DN-M group. Moreover, ACh and AChR levels significantly decreased, whereas AChE significantly increased after dry needling treatment in the DN-M group. Conclusion. Dry needling at the exact MTrSs is more effective than dry needling at non-MTrSs.

  18. Long-term uncertainty evaluation of pool electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez Lopez, Juan; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy

    2010-01-01

    Pool electricity markets are cleared under the strong assumption of having a perfectly known future; in real life, this is anything but true. The inability to predict the random parameters of the supply and the demand function introduces risk into the market clearing process. Therefore, the main interest is to minimize such risk by means of a trade-off of the mean and the variance of the social cost function. This paper considers random variations on the levels and on the slopes of the quadratic supply and demand functions. Correlation is considered between the corresponding coefficients of the supply and demand curves. By means of the mean-variance Markowitz theory, the risk introduced by these random variations is analyzed. A comprehensive analysis on the effects that the mean-variance Markowitz theory has on the nodal spot prices and on the point-elasticities of the supply and demand curves is made. The non-linear optimization model presented in this paper is validated through a three-, a six-, and a 21-node system. (author)

  19. Long-term memory in electricity prices: Czech market evidence

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Luňáčková, P.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 63, č. 5 (2013), s. 407-424 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : electricity * long-term memory Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.358, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0427660.pdf

  20. Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy; Redes neurais artificiais aplicadas na previsao de precos spot no mercado de energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso [Univesidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia], emails: alcantaro@iee.usp.br, aquiles@iee.usp.br

    2010-07-01

    The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

  1. Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Divina

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

  2. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  3. Long-term Nash equilibria in electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pozo, David; Contreras, Javier [Department of Applied Mechanics and Project Engineering - Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Camilo Jose Cela s/n. 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Caballero, Angel; de Andres, Antonio [Gas Natural Fenosa, 28033 Madrid (Spain)

    2011-02-15

    In competitive electricity markets, companies simultaneously offer their productions to obtain the maximum profits on a daily basis. In the long run, the strategies utilized by the electric companies lead to various long-term equilibria that can be analyzed with the appropriate tools. We present a methodology to find plausible long-term Nash equilibria in pool-based electricity markets. The methodology is based on an iterative market Nash equilibrium model in which the companies can decide upon their offer strategies. An exponential smoothing of the bids submitted by the companies is applied to facilitate the convergence of the iterative procedure. In each iteration of the model the companies face residual demand curves that are accurately modeled by Hermite interpolating polynomials. We introduce the concept of meta-game equilibrium strategies to allow companies to have a range of offer strategies where several pure and mixed meta-game Nash equilibria are possible. With our model it is also possible to model uncertainty or to generate price scenarios for financial models that assess the value of a generating unit by real options analysis. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated with several realistic case studies. (author)

  4. Long-term Nash equilibria in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pozo, David; Contreras, Javier; Caballero, Angel; de Andres, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    In competitive electricity markets, companies simultaneously offer their productions to obtain the maximum profits on a daily basis. In the long run, the strategies utilized by the electric companies lead to various long-term equilibria that can be analyzed with the appropriate tools. We present a methodology to find plausible long-term Nash equilibria in pool-based electricity markets. The methodology is based on an iterative market Nash equilibrium model in which the companies can decide upon their offer strategies. An exponential smoothing of the bids submitted by the companies is applied to facilitate the convergence of the iterative procedure. In each iteration of the model the companies face residual demand curves that are accurately modeled by Hermite interpolating polynomials. We introduce the concept of meta-game equilibrium strategies to allow companies to have a range of offer strategies where several pure and mixed meta-game Nash equilibria are possible. With our model it is also possible to model uncertainty or to generate price scenarios for financial models that assess the value of a generating unit by real options analysis. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated with several realistic case studies. (author)

  5. Near-term electric-vehicle program. Phase II. Mid-term review summary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-07-27

    The general objective of the Near-Term Electric Vehicle Program is to confirm that, in fact, the complete spectrum of requirements placed on the automobile (e.g., safety, producibility, utility, etc.) can still be satisfied if electric power train concepts are incorporated in lieu of contemporary power train concepts, and that the resultant set of vehicle characteristics are mutually compatible, technologically achievable, and economically achievable. The focus of the approach to meeting this general objective involves the design, development, and fabrication of complete electric vehicles incorporating, where necessary, extensive technological advancements. A mid-term summary is presented of Phase II which is a continuation of the preliminary design study conducted in Phase I of the program. Information is included on vehicle performance and performance simulation models; battery subsystems; control equipment; power systems; vehicle design and components for suspension, steering, and braking; scale model testing; structural analysis; and vehicle dynamics analysis. (LCL)

  6. Electric vehicles: a long-term option only?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, P.; Wellington, P. [Monash Univ., Dep. of Mechanical Engineering, Caulfield East (Australia)

    1996-12-31

    This paper examines the future prospects for electric vehicles (EVs) in the OECD region. EVs are generally effective in reducing local pollution and oil consumption, but in some countries they exacerbate greenhouse gas emissions and regional air pollution. Under present conditions, EVs cannot compete economically with conventional vehicles because fuel and maintenance cost savings are too small compared with battery costs. Government policies to mitigate environmental problems will not always favour EVs over conventional vehicles. Even when they do, other alternatives, especially electric public transport and non-motorized travel, will benefit even more. For many years to come, reducing the fuel consumption and emissions from conventional vehicles will also be more cost-effective than introducing EVs. The only niche EVs can hope to fill in the near term will be that for light delivery vehicles. (author) 1 tab., refs.

  7. Citotoxicidade de soldas elétricas a ponto: estudo in vitro Cytotoxicity of electric spot welding: an in vitro study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogério Lacerda dos Santos

    2011-06-01

    with NiTi, Group TT (TMA with TMA, Group TN group (TMA with NiTi and Group NN (NiTi with NiTi. All groups were subjected to spot welding and assessed in terms of their potential cytotoxicity to oral tissues. The specimens were first cleaned with isopropyl alcohol and sterilized with ultraviolet light (UV. A cytotoxicity assay was performed using cultured cells (strain L929, mouse fibroblast cells, which were tested for viable cells in neutral red dye-uptake over 24 hours. Analysis of variance and multiple comparison (ANOVA, as well as Tukey test were employed (p0.05. Cell viability was higher in the TT group, followed by groups ST, TN, SS, NS and NN. CONCLUSIONS: It became evident that the welding of NiTi alloy wires caused a greater amount of cell lysis. Electric spot welding was found to cause little cell lysis.

  8. Effects of long-term contracts on firms exercising market power in transmission constrained electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Young Woo; Yoon, Yong Tae; Park, Jong-Keun; Hur, Don; Kim, Sung-Soo

    2006-01-01

    The electricity markets with only few large firms are often vulnerable to less competitive behaviors than the desired. The presence of transmission constraints further restrict the competition among firms and provide more opportunities for firms to exercise market power. While it is generally acknowledged that the long-term contracts provide good measures for mitigating market power in the spot market (thus reducing undesired price spikes), it is not even more clear how effective these contracts are if the market is severely limited due to transmission constraints. In this paper, an analytical approach through finding a Nash equilibrium is presented to investigate the effects of long-term contracts on firms exercising market power in a bid-based pool with transmission constraints. Surprisingly the analysis in this paper shows that the presence of long-term contracts may result in the reduced expected social welfare. A straightforward consequence of the analysis presented in this paper will be helpful for the regulators in Korea to reconsider offering vesting contracts to generating companies in the near future. (author)

  9. A long-term/short-term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper we introduce a new stochastic long-term/short-term model for short-term electricity prices, and apply it to four major European indices, namely to the German, Dutch, UK and Nordic one. We give evidence that all time series contain certain periodic (mostly annual) patterns, and show how to use the wavelet transform, a tool of multiresolution analysis, for filtering purpose. The wavelet transform is also applied to separate the long-term trend from the short-term oscillation in the seasonal-adjusted log-prices. In all time series we find evidence for dynamic volatility, which we incorporate by using a bivariate GARCH model with constant correlation. Eventually we fit various models from the existing literature to the data, and come to the conclusion that our approach performs best. For the error distribution, the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution shows the best fit. (author)

  10. Australia's long-term electricity demand forecasting using deep neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun; Joorabloo, Nima; Jalili, Mahdi

    2018-01-01

    Accurate prediction of long-term electricity demand has a significant role in demand side management and electricity network planning and operation. Demand over-estimation results in over-investment in network assets, driving up the electricity prices, while demand under-estimation may lead to under-investment resulting in unreliable and insecure electricity. In this manuscript, we apply deep neural networks to predict Australia's long-term electricity demand. A stacked autoencoder is used in...

  11. The Merit-order effect. A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sensfuss, F.; Ragwitz, M.; Genoese, M.

    2007-07-01

    The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers. (orig.)

  12. Short-term occupancy and abundance dynamics of the Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) across its core range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Mccreary, Brome; Galvan, Stephanie

    2014-01-01

    The Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) occupies only a fraction of its original range and is listed as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act. We surveyed 93 sites in a rotating frame design (2010–13) in the Klamath and Deschutes Basins, Oregon, which encompass most of the species’ core extant range. Oregon spotted frogs are declining in abundance and probability of site occupancy. We did not find an association between the probability that Oregon spotted frogs disappear from a site (local extinction) and any of the variables hypothesized to affect Oregon spotted frog occupancy. This 4-year study provides baseline data, but the 4-year period was too short to draw firm conclusions. Further study is essential to understand how habitat changes and management practices relate to the status and trends of this species.

  13. Spot Scanning-Based Proton Therapy for Intracranial Meningioma: Long-Term Results From the Paul Scherrer Institute

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, Damien C., E-mail: damien.weber@unige.ch [Radiation Oncology, Geneva University Hospital, Geneva (Switzerland); Schneider, Ralf; Goitein, Gudrun; Koch, Tamara; Ares, Carmen; Geismar, Jan H.; Schertler, Andreas; Bolsi, Alessandra; Hug, Eugen B. [Center for Proton Therapy, Paul Scherrer Institute, Viligen (Switzerland)

    2012-07-01

    Background: To assess the long-term clinical results of spot scanning proton therapy (PT) in the treatment of intracranial meningiomas. Patients and Methods: Thirty-nine patients with meningioma (histologically proven 34/39) were treated with PT between July 1997 and January 2010. Thirty-two (82.1%) patients were treated as primary treatment (exclusive PT, n = 8; postoperative PT, n = 24). Mean age was 48.3 {+-} 17.9 years and 32 (82.1%) patients had skull base lesions. For patients undergoing surgery, 24 patients had a diagnosis of World Health Organization (WHO) Grade I and 10 of a WHO Grade II/III meningioma, respectively. The female-to-male ratio was 3.3. The median administered dose was 56.0 Gy (relative biologic effectiveness [RBE]) (range, 52.2-66.6) at 1.8-2.0 Gy (RBE) per fraction. Gross tumor volume (GTV) ranged from 0.76 to 546.5 cm{sup 3} (median, 21.5). Late toxicity was assessed according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Mean follow-up time was 62.0 months and all patients were followed for >6 months. Results: Six patients presented with tumor recurrence and 6 patients died during follow-up, of which 4 of tumor progression. Five-year actuarial local control and overall survival rates were 84.8% and 81.8%, respectively, for the entire cohort and 100% for benign histology. Cumulative 5-year Grade {>=}3 late toxicity-free survival was 84.5%. On univariate analysis, LC was negatively influenced by WHO grade (p = 0.001), GTV (p = 0.013), and male gender (p = 0.058). Conclusions: PT is a safe and effective treatment for patients with untreated, recurrent, or incompletely resected intracranial meningiomas. WHO grade and tumor volume was an adverse prognostic factor for local control.

  14. Perspectives for long-term competition in the central European electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, Reinhard

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we focus on the Central European electricity market and analyse whether liberalization, deregulation, and privatization are sufficient to bring about real competition. Moreover, we discuss the relevance of the following conditions to bring about real competition and to avoid market power: 1) A rigorous correct un bundling; 2) excess capacities in transmission; 3) excess capacities in generation; 4) a large number of generators and suppliers; 5) the balanced existence of short-term (e.g. spot markets) and long-term markets (e.g. bilateral contracts, forwards); 6) full liberalization; Some major findings of this analysis are: 1) Currently, demand is continuously increasing while capacities are shut down. At least in 2009 demand will have caught up with generation capacities. This could lead to severe price spikes. 2) The Central European electricity market is separated from other markets by means of limited transmission capacities; 3) With respect to effective competition in Central Europe the major problems are: i) a very small (and continuously decreasing) number of generators, and ii) a lack of serious un bundling between generation and transmission mainly in Germany; This leads to cross-subsidization of generation by the network operation and to a heavy discrimination of other and new generators; 4) Moreover, a crucial condition for active competition is a sufficiently large transmission grid. Yet, currently especially at the border to the new EU member countries transmission capacities are rather scarce and there are no signs of extensions of the grid. This also limits the access of countries with potential excess capacities like Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania to the Central European market The major conclusion of this analysis is: All conditions investigated above must be fulfilled simultaneously to bring about a competitive electricity market in Western Europe and the extended European Union. If only one of these conditions is missing, competition

  15. Spot market for uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colhoun, C.

    1982-01-01

    The spot market is always quoted for the price of uranium because little information is available about long-term contracts. A review of the development of spot market prices shows the same price curve swings that occur with all raw materials. Future long-term contracts will probably be lower to reflect spot market prices, which are currently in the real-value range of $30-$35. An upswing in the price of uranium could come in the next few months as utilities begin making purchases and trading from stockpiles. The US, unlike Europe and Japan, has already reached a supply and demand point where the spot market share is increasing. Forecasters cannot project the market price, they can only predict the presence of an oscillating spot or a secondary market. 5 figures

  16. Aerosol characterization and pulmonary responses in rats after short-term inhalation of fumes generated during resistance spot welding of galvanized steel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James M. Antonini

    most likely due to the short-term exposure of particles that contain Zn. Keywords: Resistance spot welding, Aerosol generation, Inhalation, Zinc, Methyl methacrylate

  17. Long-term electricity contract optimization with demand uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Pang; Hui, Chi-Wai; Li, Wenkai; Sakamoto, Haruo; Hirata, Kentaro; Li, Pu

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a study on selecting electricity contracts for a large-scale chemical production plant, which requires electricity importation, under demand uncertainty. Two common types of electricity contracts are considered, time zone (TZ) contract and loading curve (LC) contract. A multi-period linear probabilistic programming model is adopted for the contract selection and optimization. Hence, by using the probabilistic programming, a solution procedure is proposed that allow users to determine the best electricity contract according to their desired confident level of the uncertainties. In addition, due to the fact that the demand of product is uncertain, if one considers the overage and shortage of the products in the market as well, an interesting result can be obtained. The methodology is explained in the paper. (author)

  18. Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

  19. Modeling methods for GenCo bidding strategy optimization in the liberalized electricity spot market-A state-of-the-art review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Gong; Shi, Jing; Qu, Xiuli

    2011-01-01

    The electricity market has since 1980s been gradually evolving from a monopoly market into a liberalized one for encouraging competition and improving efficiency. This brings the opportunity for generation companies (GenCos) to make more profits while embracing more risks of not being dispatched. Therefore, it has become a core interest for the GenCos to develop optimal bidding strategies to maximize the profits and minimize the risks while participating in such a competitive market. The literature pertaining to this issue has grown rapidly in recent years, and many different modeling approaches, such as mathematical programming, game theory, and agent-based models, have been investigated under the liberalized market environment. Meanwhile, along with the increasing penetration of renewable energy, the electricity market is facing more complexity and stochasticity from both uncertain generation and dynamic demands. The intermittent and unsteady nature of these renewable power sources motivates the GenCos to further optimize their bidding strategy by considering the new constraints. This paper presents a comprehensive literature analysis on the state-of-the-art research of bidding strategy modeling methods. -- Highlights: → Publications on bidding in electricity spot markets are comprehensively reviewed. → Insights on the evolution of solution methodologies of recent 10 years are provided. → The pros and cons of these solution approaches are also discussed. → Future research directions, with renewable energy participations, are pointed out.

  20. Myelinated Afferents Are Involved in Pathology of the Spontaneous Electrical Activity and Mechanical Hyperalgesia of Myofascial Trigger Spots in Rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Meng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Myofascial trigger points (MTrPs are common causes for chronic pain. Myelinated afferents were considered to be related with muscular pain, and our clinical researches indicated they might participate in the pathology of MTrPs. Here, we applied myofascial trigger spots (MTrSs, equal to MTrPs in human of rats to further investigate role of myelinated afferents. Modified pyridine-silver staining revealed more nerve endings at MTrSs than non-MTrSs (P0.05. 30 min after the injection, MPTs at MTrSs were significantly lower than those of non-MTrSs (P<0.01. Therefore, we concluded that proliferated myelinated afferents existed at MTrSs, which were closely related to pathology of SEA and mechanical hyperalgesia of MTrSs.

  1. Spotting the earth connection and short circuits between the electric conductors, using D.C. bridges for resistance measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popa, I.; Popa, G. N.; Deaconu, S. I.; Iagăr, A.

    2015-06-01

    The paper establishes the necessary connections meant to spot the earth connections and short circuits between the conductors of a power line, using the DC bridges meant for measuring resistances between conductors at the ends of the power line. Since it is a relative method, it imposes an exact knowledge of the faulty power line setting. For values of the resistances measured between the conductors of the power line having over 1Ω at one end, the measurement will be carried out with a Wheatstone bridge, and for values below 1Ω with a Thomson bridge. In order to accurately determine the place of the fault, it measured the distances from the end of the line up to the fault and then we performed a correction calculation for this distance.

  2. The Bloch equation with terms induced by an electric field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbacz, Piotr

    2018-01-01

    The Bloch equation of the nuclear magnetization of spin-1/2 nuclei in molecules, which have permanent electric dipole moments μe that are placed simultaneously in a magnetic field B and an electric field E, is derived. It is shown that if the principal components of the nuclear magnetic shielding tensor σ and the dipole moment μe are known, then the measurement of the transverse component to the magnetic field B of the nuclear magnetization, which is induced by the application of the electric field oscillating at the half of the spin precession frequency, allows determining the orientation of the dipole moment μe with respect to the principal axis system of the symmetric part of the tensor σ. Four-component relativistic density functional theory computations, which have been performed for several molecules containing heavy nuclei, i.e., 207Pb, 205Tl, 199Hg, 195Pt, and 125Te, indicate that coefficients of the relaxation matrix perturbed by the electric field E are in favorable cases of the order of 1000 pm2 V-2 T-2. Therefore, the spin dynamics is perturbed at experimentally observable levels for the strengths of electric and magnetic fields E = 5 kV/mm and B = 10 T, respectively.

  3. Long-term water demand for electricity, industry and households

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl, David L.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Kram, Tom; de Vries, Bert J M; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Better water demand projections are needed in order to better assess water scarcity. The focus in this paper is on non-agricultural water demand, as this is the fastest-growing and least well-modelled demand component. We describe an end use-oriented model for future water demand in the electricity,

  4. Myelinated Afferents Are Involved in Pathology of the Spontaneous Electrical Activity and Mechanical Hyperalgesia of Myofascial Trigger Spots in Rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Fei; Ge, Hong-You; Wang, Yong-Hui; Yue, Shou-Wei

    2015-01-01

    Myofascial trigger points (MTrPs) are common causes for chronic pain. Myelinated afferents were considered to be related with muscular pain, and our clinical researches indicated they might participate in the pathology of MTrPs. Here, we applied myofascial trigger spots (MTrSs, equal to MTrPs in human) of rats to further investigate role of myelinated afferents. Modified pyridine-silver staining revealed more nerve endings at MTrSs than non-MTrSs (P MPTs) of MTrSs were lower than those of non-MTrSs (P MPTs of MTrSs significantly (P MPTs of non-MTrSs first decreased (P 0.05). 30 min after the injection, MPTs at MTrSs were significantly lower than those of non-MTrSs (P < 0.01). Therefore, we concluded that proliferated myelinated afferents existed at MTrSs, which were closely related to pathology of SEA and mechanical hyperalgesia of MTrSs.

  5. Age Spots

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... for Every Season How to Choose the Best Skin Care Products In This Section Dermatologic Surgery What is dermatologic ... for Every Season How to Choose the Best Skin Care Products Age Spots Treatment Options Learn more about treatment ...

  6. European Short-term Electricity Market Designs under High Penetration of Wind Power

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chaves Avila, J.P.

    2014-01-01

    The EU has ambitious policies for decarbonization of the electricity sector. Due to recent technological developments, wind power already represents a significant share of the generation mix in some European countries. As a result, short-term electricity markets and balancing arrangements must be

  7. Stochastic Optimal Wind Power Bidding Strategy in Short-Term Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    minimization problem for trading wind power in the short-term electricity market is described, to help the wind power owners optimize their bidding strategy. Stochastic optimization and a Monte Carlo method are adopted to find the optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the short-term electricity...... market in order to deal with the uncertainty of the regulation price, the activated regulation of the power system and the forecasted wind power generation. The Danish short-term electricity market and a wind farm in western Denmark are chosen as study cases due to the high wind power penetration here....... Simulation results show that the stochastic optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the Danish short-term electricity market is an effective measure to maximize the revenue of the wind power owners....

  8. Understanding the Electrical Behavior of the Action Potential in Terms of Elementary Electrical Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Falces, Javier

    2015-01-01

    A concept of major importance in human electrophysiology studies is the process by which activation of an excitable cell results in a rapid rise and fall of the electrical membrane potential, the so-called action potential. Hodgkin and Huxley proposed a model to explain the ionic mechanisms underlying the formation of action potentials. However,…

  9. Electric Chern-Simons term, enlarged exotic Galilei symmetry and noncommutative plane

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olmo, Mariano A. del; Plyushchay, Mikhail S.

    2006-01-01

    The extended exotic planar model for a charged particle is constructed. It includes a Chern-Simons-like term for a dynamical electric field, but produces usual equations of motion for the particle in background constant uniform electric and magnetic fields. The electric Chern-Simons term is responsible for the noncommutativity of the boost generators in the 10-dimensional enlarged exotic Galilei symmetry algebra of the extended system. The model admits two reduction schemes by the integrals of motion, one of which reproduces the usual formulation for the charged particle in external constant electric and magnetic fields with associated field-deformed Galilei symmetry, whose commuting boost generators are identified with the nonlocal in time Noether charges reduced on-shell. Another reduction scheme, in which electric field transmutes into the commuting space translation generators, extracts from the model a free particle on the noncommutative plane described by the twofold centrally extended Galilei group of the nonrelativistic anyons

  10. EDF Group - Annual Report 2011. Electricity, long-term choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    The EDF Group is one of the world's leading energy companies, active in all areas from generation to trading and network management. It has a sound business model, evenly balanced between regulated and deregulated activities. With its first-rate human resources, R and D capability, expertise in engineering and operating generation plants and networks, as well as its energy eco-efficiency offers, the Group delivers competitive solutions that help ensure sustainable economic development and climate protection. The EDF Group is the leader in the French and UK electricity markets and has solid positions in Italy and numerous other European countries, as well as industrial operations in Asia and the United States. Everywhere it operates, the Group is a model of quality public service for the energy sector. This document is EDF Group's annual report for the year 2011. It contains information about Group profile, governance, business, development strategy, sales and marketing, positions in Europe and international activities. The document is made of several reports: the Activity and Sustainable Development Report, the Financial Report, the Management Report, the Report by the Chairman of EDF Board of Directors on corporate governance and internal control procedures, the Milestones report, the 'EDF at a glance' report, and the Sustainable Development Indicators

  11. A new assessment of combined geothermal electric generation and desalination in western Saudi Arabia: targeted hot spot development

    KAUST Repository

    Missimer, Thomas M.

    2014-07-17

    High heat flow associated with the tectonic spreading of the Red Sea make western Saudi Arabia a region with high potential for geothermal energy development. The hydraulic properties of the Precambrian-age rocks occurring in this region are not conducive to direct production of hot water for heat exchange, which will necessitate use of the hot dry rock (HDR) heat harvesting method. This would require the construction of coupled deep wells; one for water injection and the other for steam recovery. There are some technological challenges in the design, construction, and operation of HDR geothermal energy systems. Careful geotechnical evaluation of the heat reservoir must be conducted to ascertain the geothermal gradient at the chosen site to allow pre-design modeling of the system for assessment of operational heat flow maintenance. Also, naturally occurring fractures or faults must be carefully evaluated to make an assessment of the potential for induced seismicity. It is anticipated that the flow heat exchange capacity of the system will require enhancement by the use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing in the injection well with the production well drilled into the fracture zone to maximum water recovery efficiency and reduce operating pressure. The heated water must be maintained under pressure and flashed to steam at surface to produce to the most effective energy recovery. Most past evaluations of geothermal energy development in this region have been focused on the potential for solely electricity generation, but direct use of produced steam could be coupled with thermally driven desalination technologies such as multi-effect distillation, adsorption desalination, and/or membrane distillation to provide a continuous source of heat to allow very efficient operation of the plants. © 2014 © 2014 Balaban Desalination Publications. All rights reserved.

  12. SPOT Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason T.; Welsh, Sam J.; Farinetti, Antonio L.; Wegner, Tim; Blakeslee, James; Deboeck, Toni F.; Dyer, Daniel; Corley, Bryan M.; Ollivierre, Jarmaine; Kramer, Leonard; hide

    2010-01-01

    A Spacecraft Position Optimal Tracking (SPOT) program was developed to process Global Positioning System (GPS) data, sent via telemetry from a spacecraft, to generate accurate navigation estimates of the vehicle position and velocity (state vector) using a Kalman filter. This program uses the GPS onboard receiver measurements to sequentially calculate the vehicle state vectors and provide this information to ground flight controllers. It is the first real-time ground-based shuttle navigation application using onboard sensors. The program is compact, portable, self-contained, and can run on a variety of UNIX or Linux computers. The program has a modular objec-toriented design that supports application-specific plugins such as data corruption remediation pre-processing and remote graphics display. The Kalman filter is extensible to additional sensor types or force models. The Kalman filter design is also strong against data dropouts because it uses physical models from state and covariance propagation in the absence of data. The design of this program separates the functionalities of SPOT into six different executable processes. This allows for the individual processes to be connected in an a la carte manner, making the feature set and executable complexity of SPOT adaptable to the needs of the user. Also, these processes need not be executed on the same workstation. This allows for communications between SPOT processes executing on the same Local Area Network (LAN). Thus, SPOT can be executed in a distributed sense with the capability for a team of flight controllers to efficiently share the same trajectory information currently being computed by the program. SPOT is used in the Mission Control Center (MCC) for Space Shuttle Program (SSP) and International Space Station Program (ISSP) operations, and can also be used as a post -flight analysis tool. It is primarily used for situational awareness, and for contingency situations.

  13. Mid-Term Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting with Sparse Data: A Case in Newly-Reformed Yunnan Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuntian Cheng

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available For the power systems, for which few data are available for mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP forecasting at the early stage of market reform, a novel grey prediction model (defined as interval GM(0, N model is proposed in this paper. Over the traditional GM(0, N model, three major improvements of the proposed model are: (i the lower and upper bounds are firstly identified to give an interval estimation of the forecasting value; (ii a novel whitenization method is then established to determine the definite forecasting value from the forecasting interval; and (iii the model parameters are identified by an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO instead of the least square method (LSM for the limitation of LSM. Finally, a newly-reformed electricity market in Yunnan province of China is studied, and input variables are contrapuntally selected. The accuracy of the proposed model is validated by observed data. Compared with the multiple linear regression (MLR model, the traditional GM(0, N model and the artificial neural network (ANN model, the proposed model gives a better performance and its superiority is further ensured by the use of the modified Diebold–Mariano (MDM test, suggesting that it is suitable for mid-term electricity MCP forecasting in a data-sparse electricity market.

  14. Flexibility and reliability in long-term planning exercises dedicated to the electricity sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maizi, Nadia; Drouineau, Mathilde; Assoumou, Edi; Mazauric, Vincent

    2010-09-15

    Long-term planning models are useful to build plausible options for future energy systems and must consequently address the technological feasibility and associated cost of these options. This paper focuses on the electricity sector and on problems of flexibility and reliability in power systems in order to improve results provided by long-term planning exercises: flexibility needs are integrated as an additional criterion for new investment decisions and, reliability requirements are assessed through the level of electrical losses they induced and a related cost. These approaches are implemented in a long-term planning model and demonstrated through a study of the Reunion Island.

  15. Fuzzy system applications for short-term electric load forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Kandari, Ahmad Mohammad

    Load forecasting is an important function in economic power generation, allocation between plants (Unit Commitment Scheduling), maintenance scheduling, and for system security applications such as peak shaving by power interchange with interconnected utilities. In this thesis the problem of fuzzy short term load forecasting is formulated and solved. The thesis starts with a discussion of conventional algorithms used in short-term load forecasting. These algorithms are based on least error squares and least absolute value. The theory behind each algorithm is explained. Three different models are developed and tested in the first part of the thesis. The first model (A) is a regression model that takes into account the weather parameters in summer and winter seasons. The second model (B) is a harmonics based model, which does not account for weather parameters, but considers the parameters as a function of time. Model (B) can be used where variations in weather parameters are not available. Finally, model (C) is created as a hybrid combination of models A and B. The parameters of the three models are estimated using the two static estimation algorithms and are used later to predict the load for twenty-four hours ahead. The results obtained are discussed and conclusions are drawn for these models. In the second part of the thesis new fuzzy models are developed for crisp load power with fuzzy load parameters and for fuzzy load power with fuzzy load parameters. Three fuzzy models (A), (B) and (C) are developed. The fuzzy load model (A) is a fuzzy linear regression model for summer and winter seasons. Model (B) is a harmonic fuzzy model, which does not account for weather parameters. Finally fuzzy load model (C) is a hybrid combination of fuzzy load models (A) and (B). Estimating the fuzzy parameters for the three models turns out to be one of linear optimization. The fuzzy parameters are obtained for the three models. These parameters are used to predict the load as a

  16. Dark Spots

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Dark spots (left) and 'fans' appear to scribble dusty hieroglyphics on top of the Martian south polar cap in two high-resolution Mars Global Surveyor, Mars Orbiter Camera images taken in southern spring. Each image is about 3-kilometers wide (2-miles).

  17. Long-term forecasting of hourly electricity load: Identification of consumption profiles and segmentation of customers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Andersen, Frits; Larsen, Helge V.; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

    2013-01-01

    Data for aggregated hourly electricity demand shows systematic variations over the day, week, and seasons, and forecasting of aggregated hourly electricity load has been the subject of many studies. With hourly metering of individual customers, data for individual consumption profiles is available....... Using this data and analysing the case of Denmark, we show that consumption profiles for categories of customers are equally systematic but very different for distinct categories, that is, distinct categories of customers contribute differently to the aggregated electricity load profile. Therefore......, to model and forecast long-term changes in the aggregated electricity load profile, we identify profiles for different categories of customers and link these to projections of the aggregated annual consumption by categories of customers. Long-term projection of the aggregated load is important for future...

  18. Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catalao, J.P.S.; Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

  19. Long-term Behavioral Tracking of Freely Swimming Weakly Electric Fish

    OpenAIRE

    Jun, James J.; Longtin, André; Maler, Leonard

    2014-01-01

    Long-term behavioral tracking can capture and quantify natural animal behaviors, including those occurring infrequently. Behaviors such as exploration and social interactions can be best studied by observing unrestrained, freely behaving animals. Weakly electric fish (WEF) display readily observable exploratory and social behaviors by emitting electric organ discharge (EOD). Here, we describe three effective techniques to synchronously measure the EOD, body position, and posture of a free-swi...

  20. 18 CFR 42.1 - Requirement that Transmission Organizations with Organized Electricity Markets Offer Long-Term...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Transmission Organizations with Organized Electricity Markets Offer Long-Term Firm Transmission Rights. 42.1... ELECTRICITY MARKETS § 42.1 Requirement that Transmission Organizations with Organized Electricity Markets... with one or more organized electricity markets (administered either by it or by another entity) to make...

  1. Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucukali, Serhat; Baris, Kemal

    2010-01-01

    This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning.

  2. Price-signals and long term equilibrium. Reconsidering the organisation of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, Dominique; Defeuilley, Christophe; Marty, Frederic

    2009-11-01

    The purpose of this article is to show that the reform of the electricity sector, based on a framework of interpretation in which the short-term/long-term articulation is made by the market price, does not result in an efficient result in terms of investment. After a presentation of a bibliographical review on investment in an uncertain context, the authors present a model of decentralised electricity markets which backs reforms. They highlight issues related to production investment which remain unresolved, and which may result in socially inefficient choices on the long term. They report an analysis of two solutions of industrial organisations, long term contracts and vertical and horizontal integration, which could solve these problems

  3. Long-term scenarios of mercury budgeting and exports for a Mediterranean hot spot (Marano-Grado Lagoon, Adriatic Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canu, Donata; Rosati, Ginevra

    2017-11-01

    The Marano-Grado Lagoon (MGL) is extensively contaminated by mercury (Hg) from local sources and long-term (500 years) tidally delivered inputs from the Idrija Hg mine (Slovenia) through Isonzo River suspended loads. A multibox WASP-7 (Water Analysis Simulation Program) model was used to simulate the long-term dynamics of the mercury cycle in the MGL. Scenario simulations were used to compute changes in the system over 100 years. Present and future Hg concentrations in water, sediment, and Hg budgets were compared, including evasion and MeHg inputs to the Mediterranean Sea, based on climate changes and mercury capping in tributary rivers. Using the Ref baseline scenario, the model computes a general decrease in HgT of 13% in the water column and of 80% in sediment and a strong MeHg increase in sediment (+73%). The net sea export of HgT decreases by 57% to up to 48 kg/y while MeHg increases by 10% to up to 0.63 kg/y. The lagoon sediment recovery time of HgT up to a target level of 0.3 mg/kg is computed over 570 years for surface sediments (1750 for subsurface sediments). When removing Hg from boundaries, the same target value for surface sediments is reached within 110 years.

  4. Short-Term Wind Electric Power Forecasting Using a Novel Multi-Stage Intelligent Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoran Zhao

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As the most efficient renewable energy source for generating electricity in a modern electricity network, wind power has the potential to realize sustainable energy supply. However, owing to its random and intermittent instincts, a high permeability of wind power into a power network demands accurate and effective wind energy prediction models. This study proposes a multi-stage intelligent algorithm for wind electric power prediction, which combines the Beveridge–Nelson (B-N decomposition approach, the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM, and a newly proposed intelligent optimization approach called the Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA. For data preprocessing, the B-N decomposition approach was employed to disintegrate the hourly wind electric power data into a deterministic trend, a cyclic term, and a random component. Then, the LSSVM optimized by the GOA (denoted GOA-LSSVM was applied to forecast the future 168 h of the deterministic trend, the cyclic term, and the stochastic component, respectively. Finally, the future hourly wind electric power values can be obtained by multiplying the forecasted values of these three trends. Through comparing the forecasting performance of this proposed method with the LSSVM, the LSSVM optimized by the Fruit-fly Optimization Algorithm (FOA-LSSVM, and the LSSVM optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-LSSVM, it is verified that the established multi-stage approach is superior to other models and can increase the precision of wind electric power prediction effectively.

  5. The economic benefit of short-term forecasting for wind energy in the UK electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barthelmie, R.J.; Murray, F.; Pryor, S.C.

    2008-01-01

    In the UK market, the total price of renewable electricity is made up of the Renewables Obligation Certificate and the price achieved for the electricity. Accurate forecasting improves the price if electricity is traded via the power exchange. In order to understand the size of wind farm for which short-term forecasting becomes economically viable, we develop a model for wind energy. Simulations were carried out for 2003 electricity prices for different forecast accuracies and strategies. The results indicate that it is possible to increase the price obtained by around pound 5/MWh which is about 14% of the electricity price in 2003 and about 6% of the total price. We show that the economic benefit of using short-term forecasting is also dependant on the accuracy and cost of purchasing the forecast. As the amount of wind energy requiring integration into the grid increases, short-term forecasting becomes more important to both wind farm owners and the transmission/distribution operators. (author)

  6. Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

    2015-01-01

    . The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps....... This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible...

  7. The current situation and mid-term prospects for European electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helm, Dieter

    2013-01-01

    This analysis of the current situation and mid-term prospects for European electricity markets presents: the objectives of energy policy, the historical legacy, the attempts at European integration and the Internal Energy Market (IEM), the coming of the Climate Change Package, the impact of the world economic and Euro-zone crises, the impact of shale gas and the new world of fossil fuel abundance, the impact of renewables on emissions, the impact of renewables on electricity markets, the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) and the renewables and the electricity markets, the coming of capacity crunch in some cases, the capacity markets, the return of central buyers and national energy policies, and what is to be done for the world electricity markets

  8. Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herui Cui

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term electric load is significantly affected by weather, especially the temperature effects in summer. External factors can result in mutation structures in load data. Under the influence of the external temperature factors, city electric load cannot be easily forecasted as usual. This research analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily temperature in city. An improved ARIMAX model is proposed in this paper to deal with the mutation data structures. It is found that information amount of the improved ARIMAX model is smaller than that of the classic method and its relative error is less than AR, ARMA and Sigmoid-Function ANN models. The forecasting results are more accurately fitted. This improved model is highly valuable when dealing with mutation data structure in the field of load forecasting. And it is also an effective technique in forecasting electric load with temperature effects.

  9. Short-Term Electrical Peak Demand Forecasting in a Large Government Building Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Grant

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The power output capacity of a local electrical utility is dictated by its customers’ cumulative peak-demand electrical consumption. Most electrical utilities in the United States maintain peak-power generation capacity by charging for end-use peak electrical demand; thirty to seventy percent of an electric utility’s bill. To reduce peak demand, a real-time energy monitoring system was designed, developed, and implemented for a large government building. Data logging, combined with an application of artificial neural networks (ANNs, provides short-term electrical load forecasting data for controlled peak demand. The ANN model was tested against other forecasting methods including simple moving average (SMA, linear regression, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSplines and was effective at forecasting peak building electrical demand in a large government building sixty minutes into the future. The ANN model presented here outperformed the other forecasting methods tested with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 3.9% as compared to the SMA, linear regression, and MARSplines MAPEs of 7.7%, 17.3%, and 7.0% respectively. Additionally, the ANN model realized an absolute maximum error (AME of 8.2% as compared to the SMA, linear regression, and MARSplines AMEs of 26.2%, 45.1%, and 22.5% respectively.

  10. Dressing percentage in Romanian spotted breed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    eleonora nistor

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research was to determine whether there are significant differences in terms of carcass weight, forequarters, hindquarters and the dressing percentage among Romanian Spotted breed steers and first generation crossbreed obtained between Romanian Spotted and Holstein at slaughter age of 12 and 17 months respectively. Study was done on Romanian Spotted breed steer aged 12 months (36 heads and 17 months (19 heads; Romanian Spotted x Holstein first generation crossbreed of aged 12 months (29 heads and 17 months (20 heads. The Romanian Spotted breed steer, show superiority in terms of carcass weight compared to crossbreed of Romanian Spotted x Holstein, therefore this breed has a better suitability for fattening for meat. Regarding dressing percentage is higher in crossbreed of Romanian Spotted x Holstein compared with Romanian Spotted breed steers, but the difference is insignificant.

  11. Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Energy Generation for a Photovoltaic System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinh V.T.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a short-term forecast of electric energy output of a photovoltaic (PV system towards Tomsk city, Russia climate variations (module temperature and solar irradiance. The system is located at Institute of Non-destructive Testing, Tomsk Polytechnic University. The obtained results show good agreement between actual data and prediction values.

  12. Performance of Batteries for electric vehicles on shorter and longer term

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerssen-Gondelach, S.J.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2012-01-01

    In this work, the prospects of available and new battery technologies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are examined. Five selected battery technologies are assessed on battery performance and cost in the short, medium and long term. Driving cycle simulations are carried out to assess the

  13. Performance of batteries for electric vehicles on short and longer term

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerssen - Gondelach, Sarah|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/355262436; Faaij, André P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

    2012-01-01

    In this work, the prospects of available and new battery technologies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are examined. Five selected battery technologies are assessed on battery performance and cost in the short, medium and long term. Driving cycle simulations are carried out to assess the

  14. Identifying ecological "sweet spots" underlying cyanobacteria functional group dynamics from long-term observations using a statistical machine learning approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, N.; Munoz-Carpena, R.; Phlips, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Diversity in the eco-physiological adaptations of cyanobacteria genera creates challenges for water managers who are tasked with developing appropriate actions for controlling not only the intensity and frequency of cyanobacteria blooms, but also reducing the potential for blooms of harmful taxa (e.g., toxin producers, N2 fixers). Compounding these challenges, the efficacy of nutrient management strategies (phosphorus-only versus nitrogen-and-phosphorus) for cyanobacteria bloom abatement is the subject of an ongoing debate, which increases uncertainty associated with bloom mitigation decision-making. In this work, we analyze a unique long-term (17-year) dataset composed of monthly observations of cyanobacteria genera abundances, zooplankton abundances, water quality, and flow from Lake George, a bloom-impacted flow-through lake of the St. Johns River (FL, USA). Using the Random Forests machine learning algorithm, an assumption-free ensemble modeling approach, the dataset was evaluated to quantify and characterize relationships between environmental conditions and seven cyanobacteria groupings: five genera (Anabaena, Cylindrospermopsis, Lyngbya, Microcystis, and Oscillatoria) and two functional groups (N2 fixers and non-fixers). Results highlight the selectivity of nitrogen in describing genera and functional group dynamics, and potential for physical effects to limit the efficacy of nutrient management as a mechanism for cyanobacteria bloom mitigation.

  15. Mongolian spots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Divya Gupta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mongolian spots (MS are birthmarks that are present at birth and their most common location is sacrococcygeal or lumbar area. Lesions may be single or multiple and usually involve < 5% total body surface area. They are macular and round, oval or irregular in shape. The color varies from blue to greenish, gray, black or a combination of any of the above. The size varies from few to more than 20 centimetres. Pigmentation is most intense at the age of one year and gradually fades thereafter. It is rarely seen after the age of 6 years. Aberrant MS over occiput, temple, mandibular area, shoulders and limbs may be confused with other dermal melanocytoses and bruises secondary to child abuse, thus necessitating documentation at birth. Although regarded as benign, recent data suggest that MS may be associated with inborn errors of metabolism and neurocristopathies. Mongolian spots usually resolve by early childhood and hence no treatment is generally needed if they are located in the sacral area. However, sometimes it may be required for extrasacral lesions for cosmesis.

  16. A new cascade NN based method to short-term load forecast in deregulated electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kouhi, Sajjad; Keynia, Farshid

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We are proposed a new hybrid cascaded NN based method and WT to short-term load forecast in deregulated electricity market. • An efficient preprocessor consist of normalization and shuffling of signals is presented. • In order to select the best inputs, a two-stage feature selection is presented. • A new cascaded structure consist of three cascaded NNs is used as forecaster. - Abstract: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion in efficient operation of power systems. The electricity load is a nonlinear signal with time dependent behavior. The area of electricity load forecasting has still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. To improve the accuracy of prediction, a new hybrid forecast strategy based on cascaded neural network is proposed for STLF. This method is consists of wavelet transform, an intelligent two-stage feature selection, and cascaded neural network. The feature selection is used to remove the irrelevant and redundant inputs. The forecast engine is composed of three cascaded neural network (CNN) structure. This cascaded structure can be efficiently extract input/output mapping function of the nonlinear electricity load data. Adjustable parameters of the intelligent feature selection and CNN is fine-tuned by a kind of cross-validation technique. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New York electricity markets. It is concluded from the result, the proposed algorithm is a robust forecast method

  17. Effects of the Neutrino B-term on SLepton Mixing and Electric Dipole Moments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farzan, Y

    2003-10-10

    The supersymmetric standard model with right-handed neutrino supermultiplets generically contains a soft supersymmetry breaking mass term: {delta}L = 1/2B{sub {nu}}M{tilde {nu}}{sub R}{tilde {nu}}{sub R}. The authors call this operator the ''neutrino B-term''. We show that the neutrino B-term can give the dominant effects from the neutrino sector to lepton flavor violating processes and to lepton electric dipole moments.

  18. Improving the principles of short-term electric load forecasting of the Irkutsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kornilov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of electric load (EL is an important task for both electric power entities and large consumers of electricity [1]. Large consumers are faced with the need to compose applications for the planned volume of EL, and the deviation of subsequent real consumption from previously announced leads to the appearance of penalties from the wholesale market. In turn, electricity producers are interested in forecasting the demand for electricity for prompt response to its fluctuations and for the purpose of optimal infrastructure development. The most difficult and urgent task is the hourly forecasting of EL, which is extremely important for the successful solution of problems of optimization of generating capacities, minimization of power losses, dispatching control, security assessment of power supply, etc. Ultimately, such forecasts allow optimizing the cash costs for electricity and fuel or water consumption during generation. This paper analyzes the experience of the branch of JSC "SO UPS" Irkutsk Regional Dispatch Office of the procedure for short-term forecasting of the EL of the Irkutsk region.

  19. Performance of fuzzy approach in Malaysia short-term electricity load forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansor, Rosnalini; Zulkifli, Malina; Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Ismail, Mohd Isfahani; Ismail, Suzilah; Yin, Yip Chee

    2014-12-01

    Many activities such as economic, education and manafucturing would paralyse with limited supply of electricity but surplus contribute to high operating cost. Therefore electricity load forecasting is important in order to avoid shortage or excess. Previous finding showed festive celebration has effect on short-term electricity load forecasting. Being a multi culture country Malaysia has many major festive celebrations such as Eidul Fitri, Chinese New Year and Deepavali but they are moving holidays due to non-fixed dates on the Gregorian calendar. This study emphasis on the performance of fuzzy approach in forecasting electricity load when considering the presence of moving holidays. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was estimated using simulated data by including model simplification concept (manual or automatic), day types (weekdays or weekend), public holidays and lags of electricity load. The result indicated that day types, public holidays and several lags of electricity load were significant in the model. Overall, model simplification improves fuzzy performance due to less variables and rules.

  20. Prospective study of transcutaneous parasacral electrical stimulation for overactive bladder in children: long-term results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lordêlo, Patrícia; Soares, Paulo Vitor Lima; Maciel, Iza; Macedo, Antonio; Barroso, Ubirajara

    2009-12-01

    We evaluated the long-term success of transcutaneous parasacral electrical stimulation for overactive bladder in children. We prospectively evaluated children who underwent transcutaneous parasacral electrical stimulation for overactive bladder. All patients had symptoms of overactive bladder, bell curve in uroflowmetry and low post-void residual urine. The procedure was performed using a frequency of 10 Hz for 20-minute sessions 3 times weekly for a maximum of 20 sessions. Initial and long-term (more than 6 months) success rates were evaluated. Transcutaneous parasacral electrical stimulation was performed in 36 girls and 13 boys with a mean age of 10.2 years (range 5 to 17). Mean followup was 35.3 months (range 6 to 80). Before treatment urgency, daytime incontinence and urinary tract infection were seen in 100%, 88% and 71% of cases, respectively. Initial success (full response) was demonstrated in 79% of patients for urgency, 76% for incontinence and 77% for all symptoms. Continued success was seen in 84% of patients for urgency, 74% for daytime incontinence and 78% for all symptoms. If the 30 patients with at least 2 years of followup were considered, treatment was successful in 73%. Recurrence of symptoms after a full response was seen in 10% of cases. Two of 33 patients (6%) with urinary tract infection before the procedure still had infection after treatment. Transcutaneous parasacral electrical stimulation is well tolerated, and demonstrates short and long-term effectiveness in treating overactive bladder in children. Symptoms eventually will recur in 10% of patients.

  1. Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul Alberg Østergaard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

  2. EDF - Activity and sustainable development 2011 - electricity, choices on the long term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-05-01

    This publication notably contains a set of articles about choices on the long term related to electricity production and distribution. Different aspects are addressed: arbitration (the diversity of the French energy mix), grids (investments and evolution towards smart grids), electricity cost (for households and for industry), nuclear energy (actions and results regarding safety and availability, the EPR project), renewable energies, the design and construction of a dam (Nam Theun 2) in Thailand with an important human development dimension in the project, thermal energy (the future of flame-based power stations using gas or biomass for example), and EDF's commercial policy

  3. Econometric study of the spanish electricity spot market and primary energy markets using VAR/VECM methodology: (cointegration and nonstationary time series)

    OpenAIRE

    Pacheco, Ricardo Francisco Firmino Mendes

    2010-01-01

    Mestrado em Finanças/ C32, G12, Q43 The aim of this work is to study the dynamic relationship between prices of wholesale electricity market in Spain and prices of the main fuel references to generate electricity (coal, crude oil, gasoil and natural gas). The dynamic relationship between the various interconnected electrical systems (Spain and Portugal, Spain and France), using as reference prices for wholesale electricity markets formed in each electrical system, is al...

  4. Adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial neural networks in the restructured power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamin, H.Y.; Shahidehpour, S.M.; Li, Z.

    2004-01-01

    This paper proposes a comprehensive model for the adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in the restructured power markets. The model consists: price simulation, price forecasting, and performance analysis. The factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including time factors, load factors, reserve factors, and historical price factor are discussed. We adopted ANN and proposed a new definition for the MAPE using the median to study the relationship between these factors and market price as well as the performance of the electricity price forecasting. The reserve factors are included to enhance the performance of the forecasting process. The proposed model handles the price spikes more efficiently due to considering the median instead of the average. The IEEE 118-bus system and California practical system are used to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model. (author)

  5. Short-Term Load Forecast in Electric Energy System in Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Asenova

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available As the accuracy of the electricity load forecast is crucial in providing better cost effective risk management plans, this paper proposes a Short Term Electricity Load Forecast (STLF model with high forecasting accuracy. Two kind of neural networks, Multilayer Perceptron network model and Radial Basis Function network model, are presented and compared using the mean absolute percentage error. The data used in the models are electricity load historical data. Even though the very good performance of the used model for the load data, weather parameters, especially the temperature, take important part for the energy predicting which is taken into account in this paper. A comparative evaluation between a traditional statistical method and artificial neural networks is presented.

  6. Modelling the long-term deployment of electricity storage in the global energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despres, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    The current development of wind and solar power sources calls for an improvement of long-term energy models. Indeed, high shares of variable wind and solar productions have short- and long-term impacts on the power system, requiring the development of flexibility options: fast-reacting power plants, demand response, grid enhancement or electricity storage. Our first main contribution is the modelling of electricity storage and grid expansion in the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We set up new investment mechanisms, where storage development is based on several combined economic values. After categorising the long-term energy models and the power sector modelling tools in a common typology, we showed the need for a better integration of both approaches. Therefore, the second major contribution of our work is the yearly coupling of POLES to a short-term optimisation of the power sector operation, with the European Unit Commitment and Dispatch model (EUCAD). The two-way data exchange allows the long-term coherent scenarios of POLES to be directly backed by the short-term technical detail of EUCAD. Our results forecast a strong and rather quick development of the cheapest flexibility options: grid interconnections, pumped hydro storage and demand response programs, including electric vehicle charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid storage. The more expensive battery storage presumably finds enough system value in the second half of the century. A sensitivity analysis shows that improving the fixed costs of batteries impacts more the investments than improving their efficiency. We also show the explicit dependency between storage and variable renewable energy sources. (author) [fr

  7. Electric long-term behaviour of polyethylene insulations for medium-voltage cables cross-linked chemically or by radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scharff, C.; Eberhardt, M.

    1989-01-01

    The electric long-term behaviour of cross-linked polyethylene (CLPE) was studied at room temperature by measuring the channel operating time under needling and the total charge before channel operation. It is found that the decomposition products formed in CLPE act as tension stabilizers. They have a dominating influence on the electric long-term behaviour

  8. Simulation of demand side participation in Spanish short term electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valencia-Salazar, I.; Alvarez, C.; Escriva-Escriva, G.; Alcazar-Ortega, M.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Benefits from customer active participation can be obtained with a proper generation of bids and offers. → Simulation of Spanish customers' participation is shown in daily, intra-daily and balancing markets. → Market efficiency and economics profits arise in balancing markets by using customer load reductions. → Real market prices and real customers' consumptions profiles are used in the simulations. -- Abstract: Demand response resources management is one of the most investigated solutions oriented to improve the efficiency in electricity markets. In this paper, the capability of customers to participate in short term markets is analyzed. An available methodology to analyze the daily and monthly energy consumptions of large customers is used to create energy offers and bids. This allows customers to participate in energy markets in order to buy, as first step, the usual electricity consumption and, additionally, to offer demand reductions in the short term electricity markets. Additionally, this paper shows the customer potential to participate in the Spanish electricity markets.

  9. Describing Long-Term Electricity Demand Scenarios in the Telecommunications Industry: A Case Study of Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuke Kishita

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the rapid expansion of information and communication technology (ICT usage, the telecommunications industry is faced with a challenge to promote green ICT toward achieving a low-carbon society. One critical obstacle in planning long-term strategies for green ICT is the uncertainty of various external factors, such as consumers’ lifestyle and technological advancement. To tackle this issue, this paper employs a scenario planning method to analyze electricity consumption in the telecommunications industry, where both changes in various external factors and energy-saving measures are assumed. We propose a model to estimate future electricity consumption of the telecommunications industry using a statistical approach. In a case study, we describe four scenarios that differ in the diffusion of ICT and the technological advancement of ICT equipment in order to analyze the electricity consumption in Japan’s telecommunications industry to 2030. The results reveal that the electricity consumption in 2030 becomes 0.7–1.6-times larger than the 2012 level (10.7 TWh/year. It is also shown that the most effective measures to reduce the electricity consumption include improving the energy efficiency of IP (Internet Protocol communication equipment and mobile communication equipment.

  10. Prices on electricity and transmission of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This publication contains data on prices of electric energy and transmission of electricity valid from 1 January 2003. The purpose is to illustrate the price changes on the electricity market in terms of prices for different customer categories. All companies holding network concessions for areas and all companies trading in electricity are included in this report, which is produced on an annual basis.The prices for transmission services 1 January 2003 were on the whole unchanged compared to the preceding year. For households the mean annual cost was SEK 882 for flats, SEK 4 335 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 1 925 for those without electric heating. Electricity prices rose considerably on 1 January 2003 compared to the year before. The mean price per kWh for households with standard agreements was SEK 0.519 for deliveries to flats, SEK 0.447 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 0.471 without electric heating. As a result, the mean annual cost increased by SEK 326 for flats, SEK 3 012 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating, and by SEK 774 for those houses without electric heating. The high costs of electricity may be explained in part by the development on the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool), where the spot price increased by about 290 per cent during 2002 (1 USD is about 8 SEK)

  11. The electricity supply industry in England and Wales. Medium term development plan 1986-93

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-09-01

    The main objective of the Electricity Supply Industry in England and Wales is to develop and maintain electricity supplies to meet customers' needs as cheaply as possible. Over the medium term, 1986 - 1993, the goal is to reduce the real average price per kWh sold, whilst maintaining high standards of service and meeting financial obligations. The strategy set out comprises reducing controllable costs per kWh sold to 1992/3, pursuing a vigorous and selective marketing strategy so that an expected sales increase of 10% is achieved, securing a long term supply of coal at minimum cost by developing the commercial relationship with British Coal, increasing the proportion of electrical energy supplied by nuclear energy to 25% by 1992/3 and being environmentally concerned. The introduction outlines the medium term business, energy and economic environment, financial targets and price prospects. Plans to support the strategy outlined are presented. Each section sets out the objectives and the plans to achieve these. The strategy for new power stations is to develop fossil-fueled and nuclear as well as to develop alternative technologies. (UK)

  12. Forecast of electric power market to short-term: a time series approcah

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Roberio Neves Pelinca da.

    1994-01-01

    Three different time series approaches are analysed by this dissertation in the Brazilian electricity markert context. The aim is to compare the predictive performance of these approaches from a simulated exercise using the main series of the Brazilian consumption of electricity: Total Consumption, Industrial Consumption, Residencial Consumption and Commercial Consumption. One concludes that these appraches offer an enormous potentiality to the short-term planning system of the Electric Sector. Among the univariate models, the results for the analysed period point out that the forecast produced by Holt-Winter's models are more accurate than those produced by ARIMA and structural models. When explanatory variables are introduced in the last models, one can notice, in general, an improvement in the predictive performance of the models, although there is no sufficient evidence to consider that they are superior to Holt-Winter's models. The models with explanatory variables can be particularly useful, however, when one intends either to build scenarios or to study the effects of some variables on the consumption of electricity. (author). 73 refs., 19 figs., 13 tabs

  13. Planning India's long-term energy shipment infrastructures for electricity and coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowen, Brian H.; Canchi, Devendra; Lalit, Vishal Agarwal; Preckel, Paul V.; Sparrow, F.T.; Irwin, Marty W.

    2010-01-01

    The Purdue Long-Term Electricity Trading and Capacity Expansion Planning Model simultaneously optimizes both transmission and generation capacity expansions. Most commercial electricity system planning software is limited to only transmission planning. An application of the model to India's national power grid, for 2008-2028, indicates substantial transmission expansion is the cost-effective means of meeting the needs of the nation's growing economy. An electricity demand growth rate of 4% over the 20-year planning horizon requires more than a 50% increase in the Government's forecasted transmission capacity expansion, and 8% demand growth requires more than a six-fold increase in the planned transmission capacity expansion. The model minimizes the long-term expansion costs (operational and capital) for the nation's five existing regional power grids and suggests the need for large increases in load-carrying capability between them. Changes in coal policy affect both the location of new thermal power plants and the optimal pattern inter-regional transmission expansions.

  14. Preliminary results of steady state characterization of near term electric vehicle breadboard propulsion system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargent, N. B.

    1980-01-01

    The steady state test results on a breadboard version of the General Electric Near Term Electric Vehicle (ETV-1) are discussed. The breadboard was built using exact duplicate vehicle propulsion system components with few exceptions. Full instrumentation was provided to measure individual component efficiencies. Tests were conducted on a 50 hp dynamometer in a road load simulator facility. Characterization of the propulsion system over the lower half of the speed-torque operating range has shown the system efficiency to be composed of a predominant motor loss plus a speed dependent transaxle loss. At the lower speeds with normal road loads the armature chopper loss is also a significant factor. At the conditions corresponding to a cycle for which the vehicle system was specifically designed, the efficiencies are near optimum.

  15. Estimation of Recharge from Long-Term Monitoring of Saline Tracer Transport Using Electrical Resistivity Tomography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haarder, Eline Bojsen; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Binley, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    The movement of a saline tracer added to the soil surface was monitored in the unsaturated zone using cross-borehole electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and subjected to natural rainfall conditions. The ERT data were inverted and corrected for subsurface temperature changes, and spatial moment...... methods. In September 2011, a saline tracer was added across a 142-m2 area at the surface at an application rate mimicking natural infiltration. The movement of the saline tracer front was monitored using cross-borehole electrical resistivity tomography (ERT); data were collected on a daily to weekly...... located only meters away from the cross-borehole ERT array. This suggests that long-term automated ERT monitoring of a surface-applied tracer is a promising technique for estimating groundwater recharge....

  16. Electric vehicles and India's low carbon passenger transport: A long-term co-benefits assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal; Shukla, Priyadarshi

    2017-01-01

    price for CO2 in line with the global target of 2 °C temperature stabilization. The scenarios analysis delineates penetration of EVs and their co-benefits as well as co-costs. The co-benefits relate to local air quality, national energy security and CO2 emissions in India whereas the co-costs (risks...... of existing EV policies as outlined in India's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC); ii) a ‘EV policy’ scenario which, in line with India's INDCs, follows targeted supply-side push policies for EVs, but without the budget constraints; and iii) a ‘low carbon’ scenario which uses an exogenous...... to significant diffusion of electric 2- wheelers in India by 2030. These policies enhance diffusion of electric 4-wheelers only if financial incentives are sustained in the long-term, iii) the application of global carbon price on the Indian economy in the 2° C stabilization scenario increases competitiveness...

  17. Quantitative and experimental analysis of investment incentive mechanisms in electricity markets: short- and long-term analysis of actors' strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalfallah, Mohamed Haikel

    2009-01-01

    In this thesis, we deal with the question of reliability of electricity system and particularly the problem of generation capacity adequacy in electricity markets, characterized by uncertain and volatile demand. This question is currently the object of many politics and economics debates in the European Commission of energy. It occurs within the context of de-regulations and reforms of liberalization operated in western countries. This deregulation was caused many shortages and crisis in many electricity markets in the world. Failures are caused by several factors such as, the presence of uncertainties on future demand and fuel prices, the risk-averse behavior of investors and the market power exercised by existing generators. They had led to high spot market prices and a fundamental imbalance between the steadily growing demand for power and the limited increases, due to the lack of investments, in generation capacities. Many mechanisms, additional to the energy market, that ensure an adequate incentive for investments and a stable and socially acceptable electricity prices have been proposed. In this work, we compare different investment incentive mechanisms, in terms of long-term capacity adequacy in an uncertain environment, cost effectiveness and the ability of reducing market power. In the literature, the problem of long-term system reliability has been largely studied in qualitative terms. A few works attempt to model the quantitative effects of those market designs. The contribution of this work is to propose a quantitative analysis based on dynamics models. Competition is considered by using the principles of game theory. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to deal with the stochastic environment of the market and mixed complementarity problem and variational inequality formulations are employed to find Nash equilibrium. In addition to the analytic analysis, an experimental study is carried out in order to include a larger diversity of strategy. The

  18. Assessing long-term effects of demand response policies in wholesale electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepeda, Mauricio; Saguan, Marcelo

    2014-05-01

    This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term issues in electricity markets in the presence of demand response development. Different policies have been implemented around the world aiming to develop demand response potential. Externalities, in particular the CO 2 externality, have been one of the key elements in the debate on the effectiveness of different policies regarding demand response development. Policy makers have several options to deal with this externality. The most direct one is to correct the externality by setting a CO 2 price at a level that corresponds to the cost to society of the corresponding CO 2 emissions. One alternative solution could be to subsidize carbon-free technologies as demand response. In this paper we examine potential long-term impacts of these two policies. We rely on a long-term market simulation model that characterizes expansion decisions in a competitive regime. We test for each policy two different scenarios regarding the possibility of internalization of the CO 2 externality. The results show that differences in development policies affect both investments and social costs in the wholesale electricity market and confirm previous findings that a market-driven development of demand response with the internalization of the CO 2 externality is the most efficient approach. (authors)

  19. A New Two-Stage Approach to Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan Tasić

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In the deregulated energy market, the accuracy of load forecasting has a significant effect on the planning and operational decision making of utility companies. Electric load is a random non-stationary process influenced by a number of factors which make it difficult to model. To achieve better forecasting accuracy, a wide variety of models have been proposed. These models are based on different mathematical methods and offer different features. This paper presents a new two-stage approach for short-term electrical load forecasting based on least-squares support vector machines. With the aim of improving forecasting accuracy, one more feature was added to the model feature set, the next day average load demand. As this feature is unknown for one day ahead, in the first stage, forecasting of the next day average load demand is done and then used in the model in the second stage for next day hourly load forecasting. The effectiveness of the presented model is shown on the real data of the ISO New England electricity market. The obtained results confirm the validity advantage of the proposed approach.

  20. On Long-Term Transmission Rights in the Nordic Electricity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Spodniak

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In vein with the new energy market rules drafted in the EU this paper presents and discusses two contract types for hedging the risks connected to long-term transmission rights, the financial transmission right (FTR and the electricity price area differentials (EPAD that are used in the Nordic electricity markets. The possibility to replicate the FTR contracts with a combination of EPAD contracts is presented and discussed. Based on historical evidence and empirical analysis of ten Nordic interconnectors and twenty bidding areas, we investigate the pricing accuracy of the replicated FTR contracts by quantifying ex-post forward risk premia. The results show that the majority of the studied FTR contain a negative risk premium, especially the monthly and the quarterly contracts. Reverse flow (unnatural pricing was identified for two interconnectors. From a theoretical policy point of view the results imply that it may be possible to continue with the EPAD-based system by using EPAD Combos in the Nordic countries, even if FTR contracts would prevail elsewhere in the EU. In practice the pricing of bi-directional EPAD contracts is more complex and may not always be very efficient. The efficiency of the EPAD market structure should be discussed from various points of view before accepting their status quo as a replacement for FTRs in the Nordic electricity markets.

  1. Simulation of short-term electric load using an artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanin, O. A.

    2018-01-01

    While solving the task of optimizing operation modes and equipment composition of small energy complexes or other tasks connected with energy planning, it is necessary to have data on energy loads of a consumer. Usually, there is a problem with obtaining real load charts and detailed information about the consumer, because a method of load-charts simulation on the basis of minimal information should be developed. The analysis of work devoted to short-term loads prediction allows choosing artificial neural networks as a most suitable mathematical instrument for solving this problem. The article provides an overview of applied short-term load simulation methods; it describes the advantages of artificial neural networks and offers a neural network structure for electric loads of residential buildings simulation. The results of modeling loads with proposed method and the estimation of its error are presented.

  2. Development of near-term batteries for electric vehicles. Summary report, October 1977-September 1979

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rajan, J.B. (comp.)

    1980-06-01

    The status and results through FY 1979 on the Near-Term Electric Vehicle Battery Project of the Argonne National Laboratory are summarized. This project conducts R and D on lead-acid, nickel/zinc and nickel/iron batteries with the objective of achieving commercialization in electric vehicles in the 1980's. Key results of the R and D indicate major technology advancements and achievement of most of FY 1979 performance goals. In the lead-acid system the specific energy was increased from less than 30 Wh/kg to over 40 Wh/kg at the C/3 rate; the peak power density improved from 70 W/kg to over 110 W/kg at the 50% state of charge; and over 200 deep-discharge cycle life demonstrated. In the nickel/iron system a specific energy of 48 Wh/kg was achieved; a peak power of about 100 W/kg demonstrated and a life of 36 cycles obtained. In the nickel/zinc system, specific energies of up to 64 Wh/kg were shown; peak powers of 133 W/kg obtained; and a life of up to 120 cycles measured. Future R and D will emphasize increased cycle life for nickel/zinc batteries and increased cycle life and specific energy for lead-acid and nickel/iron batteries. Testing of 145 cells was completed by NBTL. Cell evaluation included a full set of performance tests plus the application of a simulated power profile equivalent to the power demands of an electric vehicle in stop-start urban driving. Simplified test profiles which approximate electric vehicle demands are also described.

  3. Performance Analysis of Short-Term Electricity Demand with Atmospheric Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamal Chapagain

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The quality of short-term electricity demand forecasting is essential for the energy market players for operation and trading activities. Electricity demand is significantly affected by non-linear factors, such as climatic conditions, calendar components and seasonal behavior, which have been widely reported in the literature. This paper considers parsimonious forecasting models to explain the importance of atmospheric variables for hourly electricity demand forecasting. Many researchers include temperature as a major weather component. If temperature is included in a model, other weather components, such as relative humidity and wind speed, are considered as less effective. However, several papers mention that there is a significant impact of atmospheric variables on electricity demand. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the following atmospheric variables: rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and cloud cover to improve the forecasting accuracy. We construct three different multiple linear models (Model A, Model B, and Model C including the auto-regressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX with the mentioned exogenous weather variables to compare the performances for Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan. The Bayesian approach is applied to estimate the weight of each variable with Gibbs sampling to approximate the estimation of the coefficients. The overall mean absolute percentage error (MAPE performances of Model A, Model B, and Model C are estimated as 2.43%, 1.98% and 1.72%, respectively. This means that the accuracy is improved by 13.4% by including rainfall, snowfall, solar radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, and cloud cover data. The results of the statistical test indicate that these atmospheric variables and the improvement in accuracy are statistically significant in most of the hours. More specifically, they are significant during highly fluctuating and peak hours.

  4. Electricity and long term supply security. Search for power market respectful legal instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, D.; Pignon, V.

    2006-01-01

    This paper, also published in 'ISMEA Economie et Societe' Journal (Energy series 2006, no.10), deals with theoretical aspects of long term electricity supply security. Market prices and contractual arrangements on the physical and financial electricity markets do not allow to create sufficient incentives to invest in adequate capacity for guaranteeing the appropriate level of supply in every circumstance. The long term security of supply by capacity adequacy must be conceptualized as a collective good. Alternative solutions to reach capacity adequacy which have been adopted in different markets are successively considered: public procurement of strategic reserves, capacity payment, capacity obligation with exchangeable rights. Each one presents theoretical limits and practical drawbacks when implemented in complex markets. That brings out the interest of mechanism of centralized auctions for forward capacity contracts (or reliability options); it combines controls by quantity and by price while stabilizing investment in peak power plants and is compatible with energy and reserves markets, that is not the case of the three other instruments. (authors)

  5. Long-term outcome of electrical cardioversion in patients with chronic atrial flutter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crijns, H. J.; Van Gelder, I. C.; Tieleman, R. G.; Brügemann, J.; De Kam, P. J.; Gosselink, A. T.; Bink-Boelkens, M. T.; Lie, K. I.

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the long-term outcome of serial electrical cardioversion therapy in patients with chronic atrial flutter. DESIGN: Prospective study, case series. SETTING: University hospital. PATIENTS: 50 consecutive patients with chronic (> 24 hours) atrial flutter without a previous relapse on antiarrhythmic drugs. INTERVENTIONS: Elective electrical cardioversion therapy, if necessary repeated, to obtain and keep patients in sinus rhythm. If the first cardioversion resulted in sinus rhythm, patients were not given antiarrhythmic drugs. Relapses were managed by repeated cardioversions then anti-arrhythmic drugs were used serially in a set sequence. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Maintenance of sinus rhythm. RESULTS: Mean (SD) follow up was 3.5 (1.7) years. The first cardioversion was successful in 48 patients (96%). After a single shock and without antiarrhythmic drugs being used, 42% of the patients maintained sinus rhythm in the long-term. Only left atrial size was inversely related to the efficacy of one shock (P = 0.025). With serial cardioversion 90% of the patients were kept in sinus rhythm for 5 years. Univariate analysis showed that a long duration of arrhythmia and impaired cardiac function were both related to poor outcome. During follow up 3 patients died of progression of heart failure and another 5 died suddenly. None of these 5 patients was on antiarrhythmic drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Electrical cardioversion was an effective and safe method of converting chronic atrial flutter to sinus rhythm. To maintain sinus rhythm, more than half of the patients required multiple shocks and prophylactic antiarrhythmic drugs. Sudden death was relatively frequent in the study population; the limited data available from this study suggest that such deaths were caused by the underlying disease and not drug related proarrhythmia. PMID:9038696

  6. Ecological and biomedical effects of effluents from near-term electric vehicle storage battery cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-05-01

    An assessment of the ecological and biomedical effects due to commercialization of storage batteries for electric and hybrid vehicles is given. It deals only with the near-term batteries, namely Pb/acid, Ni/Zn, and Ni/Fe, but the complete battery cycle is considered, i.e., mining and milling of raw materials, manufacture of the batteries, cases and covers; use of the batteries in electric vehicles, including the charge-discharge cycles; recycling of spent batteries; and disposal of nonrecyclable components. The gaseous, liquid, and solid emissions from various phases of the battery cycle are identified. The effluent dispersal in the environment is modeled and ecological effects are assessed in terms of biogeochemical cycles. The metabolic and toxic responses by humans and laboratory animals to constituents of the effluents are discussed. Pertinent environmental and health regulations related to the battery industry are summarized and regulatory implications for large-scale storage battery commercialization are discussed. Each of the seven sections were abstracted and indexed individually for EDB/ERA. Additional information is presented in the seven appendixes entitled; growth rate scenario for lead/acid battery development; changes in battery composition during discharge; dispersion of stack and fugitive emissions from battery-related operations; methodology for estimating population exposure to total suspended particulates and SO/sub 2/ resulting from central power station emissions for the daily battery charging demand of 10,000 electric vehicles; determination of As air emissions from Zn smelting; health effects: research related to EV battery technologies. (JGB)

  7. Multi criteria analysis for the long term planning of the mexican electrical system expansion - 337

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin-del-Campo, C.; Guadarrama, R.; Francois, J.L.

    2010-01-01

    A multi-criteria analysis was applied to the long term electricity expansion planning for Mexico for the 2008-2030 period. This methodology is based on a fuzzy logic inference system, which allows for the definition of a decision function that takes into account all the evaluation parameters. This function permits one to rank the alternative expansion plans in order to determine the most attractive option. In this study four evaluation parameters were considered: (a) the total generating cost obtained from an optimization expansion using the WASP-IV model, (b) the economic risk associated with fuel prices increases, (c) the diversity of technologies in the mix, and (d) the external costs. The analysis was applied to a base case and to three additional expansion cases, which are very similar to the base case, but each of them excludes the addition of a certain type of candidate technology in the optimization planning. The base case is Plan A which has six candidate technologies available for the optimization planning. Plan B excludes coal; Plan C excludes oil, and Plan D excludes nuclear energy. After the decision analysis was made it was found that Plan B is best followed by Plan A, then Plan C and finally Plan D. The worst plan expansion was obtained when the nuclear candidate was excluded in the program of additions during the time period. The primary conclusion is that nuclear energy must participate in the mix of electricity generation. This result can be used to define the energy policy for electricity production in Mexico in the medium-long term scenario. (authors)

  8. Long-term behavioral tracking of freely swimming weakly electric fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jun, James J; Longtin, André; Maler, Leonard

    2014-03-06

    Long-term behavioral tracking can capture and quantify natural animal behaviors, including those occurring infrequently. Behaviors such as exploration and social interactions can be best studied by observing unrestrained, freely behaving animals. Weakly electric fish (WEF) display readily observable exploratory and social behaviors by emitting electric organ discharge (EOD). Here, we describe three effective techniques to synchronously measure the EOD, body position, and posture of a free-swimming WEF for an extended period of time. First, we describe the construction of an experimental tank inside of an isolation chamber designed to block external sources of sensory stimuli such as light, sound, and vibration. The aquarium was partitioned to accommodate four test specimens, and automated gates remotely control the animals' access to the central arena. Second, we describe a precise and reliable real-time EOD timing measurement method from freely swimming WEF. Signal distortions caused by the animal's body movements are corrected by spatial averaging and temporal processing stages. Third, we describe an underwater near-infrared imaging setup to observe unperturbed nocturnal animal behaviors. Infrared light pulses were used to synchronize the timing between the video and the physiological signal over a long recording duration. Our automated tracking software measures the animal's body position and posture reliably in an aquatic scene. In combination, these techniques enable long term observation of spontaneous behavior of freely swimming weakly electric fish in a reliable and precise manner. We believe our method can be similarly applied to the study of other aquatic animals by relating their physiological signals with exploratory or social behaviors.

  9. Environmental implications of electricity generation in an integrated long-term planning framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, Graham M.; West, James

    2012-01-01

    Long-term, integrated modelling of electricity generation capacity and its operational requirements is important for coherent energy policy because of the multi-decadal lifespan of such plant, and because related fuel requirements, water consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions impact other sectors. This paper describes a physical model of electricity generation designed for long-term simulations, including the reproduction of decades of historical data, and its application to key policy questions. The simulation uses a dynamic, physical input–output model for the basic material and energy industries, embedded in an economy-wide stocks and flows framework (SFF). The historical reproduction, illustrated for the state of Victoria, is based on integrating bottom-up technical data on physical processes as inputs, and validating output against top-down aggregate data. We show that while greenhouse gas emissions would decrease significantly with the aggressive introduction of cleaner generation technology, long-term reductions are difficult to maintain against ongoing growth in consumption. Additionally, our sensitivity analysis identifies the importance of rapid action due to the age structure of operating power stations. We also identify significant imposts of alternative power generation on land and water resources, though a business-as-usual scenario would impose greater losses of water resources. - Highlights: ► System-wide dynamic analysis is needed to avoid unintended adverse environmental outcomes. ► Dynamics of long-lived plant is important in transitions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. ► Large gains in GHG emissions efficiency of generation portfolios fail to maintain low emissions.

  10. SpotADAPT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaulakiene, Dalia; Thomsen, Christian; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2015-01-01

    by Amazon Web Services (AWS). The users aiming for the spot market are presented with many instance types placed in multiple datacenters in the world, and thus it is difficult to choose the optimal deployment. In this paper, we propose the framework SpotADAPT (Spot-Aware (re-)Deployment of Analytical...... execution within boundaries). Moreover, during the execution of the workload, SpotADAPT suggests a redeployment if the current spot instance gets terminated by Amazon or a better deployment becomes possible due to fluctuations of the spot prices. The approach is evaluated using the actual execution times...

  11. Feasibility demonstration of using wire electrical-discharge machining, abrasive flow honing, and laser spot welding to manufacture high-precision triangular-pitch Zircaloy-4 fuel-rod-support grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horwood, W.A.

    1982-05-01

    Results are reported supporting the feasibility of manufacturing high precision machined triangular pitch Zircaloy-4 fuel rod support grids for application in water cooled nuclear power reactors. The manufacturing processes investigated included wire electrical discharge machining of the fuel rod and guide tube cells in Zircaloy plate stock to provide the grid body, multistep pickling of the machined grid to provide smooth and corrosion resistant surfaces, and laser welding of thin Zircaloy cover plates to both sides of the grid body to capture separate AM-350 stainless steel insert springs in the grid body. Results indicated that dimensional accuracy better than +- 0.001 and +- 0.002 inch could be obtained on cell shape and position respectively after wire EDM and surface pickling. Results on strength, corrosion resistance, and internal quality of laser spot welds are provided

  12. Access to long-term capacity for electric interconnections: towards a single European set of rules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-05-01

    Guaranteeing firmness of interconnection capacity (or compensating curtailments based on the daily market prices) is a key element to the design of the integrated European electricity market. However, although the European energy regulators are on the way to reaching a consensus on the target to be met in terms of firmness, there is less consensus on how this target can be reached, which means the two following key questions will have to be duly addressed: - How can we improve confidence in the daily price references used to compensate interconnection capacity holders in cases of curtailment? - How can we encourage transmission system operators to allocate a maximum of financially firm capacity, at a lesser cost for network users? In the short-term, in the absence of appropriate incentive mechanisms to maximise capacity, the regulators have no other choice but to guarantee transmission system operators that costs related to firmness of capacity allocated at the different time frames will be covered. In this perspective, transitory solutions can be implemented by regulators in order to limit the risk borne by network users (for example, by introducing caps on price differentials and/or on the budget available for compensating curtailments). The choices in terms of capacity and how it is distributed between the different time frames (daily, monthly, annual and multi-annual) are also important decision variables, as these could limit the risk borne by network users. In such, as they are responsible for guaranteeing the interests of network users, the regulators should decide what level of capacity should be made available to the market. This decision should be taken in close collaboration with the network operators, who have all the expertise needed in terms of calculating capacity. Finally, on the interconnections where a market-coupling mechanism exists, the regulators should ask the transmission system operators to allocate the long-term interconnection capacity in

  13. Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Canizes, Bruno; Vale, Zita; Morais, Hugo

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Decision making under uncertainty. ► Stochastic Mixed Integer Quadratic Programming applied to short-term maintenance scheduling. ► Outage scheduling in Oligopolistic electricity markets. ► Generation companies maintenance scheduling. -- Abstract: In the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.

  14. Density prediction and dimensionality reduction of mid-term electricity demand in China: A new semiparametric-based additive model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shao, Zhen; Yang, Shan-Lin; Gao, Fei

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A new stationary time series smoothing-based semiparametric model is established. • A novel semiparametric additive model based on piecewise smooth is proposed. • We model the uncertainty of data distribution for mid-term electricity forecasting. • We provide efficient long horizon simulation and extraction for external variables. • We provide stable and accurate density predictions for mid-term electricity demand. - Abstract: Accurate mid-term electricity demand forecasting is critical for efficient electric planning, budgeting and operating decisions. Mid-term electricity demand forecasting is notoriously complicated, since the demand is subject to a range of external drivers, such as climate change, economic development, which will exhibit monthly, seasonal, and annual complex variations. Conventional models are based on the assumption that original data is stable and normally distributed, which is generally insignificant in explaining actual demand pattern. This paper proposes a new semiparametric additive model that, in addition to considering the uncertainty of the data distribution, includes practical discussions covering the applications of the external variables. To effectively detach the multi-dimensional volatility of mid-term demand, a novel piecewise smooth method which allows reduction of the data dimensionality is developed. Besides, a semi-parametric procedure that makes use of bootstrap algorithm for density forecast and model estimation is presented. Two typical cases in China are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results suggest that both meteorological and economic variables play a critical role in mid-term electricity consumption prediction in China, while the extracted economic factor is adequate to reveal the potentially complex relationship between electricity consumption and economic fluctuation. Overall, the proposed model can be easily applied to mid-term demand forecasting, and

  15. Short-term operation scheduling of a hydropower plant in the day-ahead electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez-Diaz, Juan I.; Wilhelmi, Jose R.; Sanchez-Fernandez, Jose Angel

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to solve the short-term operation scheduling problem of a hydropower plant that sells energy in a deregulated electricity market with the objective of maximizing its revenue. This paper proposes a nonlinear programming based scheduling model that determines both the optimal unit commitment (start-ups and shut-downs scheduling) and the generation dispatch of the committed units (hourly power output). The power generated by each hydro unit is considered as a nonlinear function of the water discharge and the volume of the associated reservoir. The dependence of the units' operating limits (maximum and minimum water flows) on the actual gross head has been also taken into account in this model. The results from a case study are also presented to illustrate the application of the proposed approach in a real hydro plant. (author)

  16. Electricity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    AC power generation, its transmission and distribution. The well known observations made by Oersted that an electric current produces a magnetic field led a number of researchers to investigate whether the converse was true i.e. whether electric current can be produced from a magnetic field. Michael Faraday of England ...

  17. Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

    2010-12-15

    Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

  18. Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

  19. Hybrid ARIMA and Support Vector Regression in Short‑term Electricity Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindřich Pokora

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The literature suggests that, in short‑term electricity‑price forecasting, a combination of ARIMA and support vector regression (SVR yields performance improvement over separate use of each method. The objective of the research is to investigate the circumstances under which these hybrid models are superior for day‑ahead hourly price forecasting. Analysis of the Nord Pool market with 16 interconnected areas and 6 investigated monthly periods allows not only for a considerable level of generalizability but also for assessment of the effect of transmission congestion since this causes differences in prices between the Nord Pool areas. The paper finds that SVR, SVRARIMA and ARIMASVR provide similar performance, at the same time, hybrid methods outperform single models in terms of RMSE in 98 % of investigated time series. Furthermore, it seems that higher flexibility of hybrid models improves modeling of price spikes at a slight cost of imprecision during steady periods. Lastly, superiority of hybrid models is pronounced under transmission congestions, measured as first and second moments of the electricity price.

  20. Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redl, Christian; Haas, Reinhard; Huber, Claus; Boehm, Bernhard

    2009-01-01

    Since the liberalisation of the European electricity sector, forward and futures contracts have gained significant interest of market participants due to risk management reasons. For pricing of these contracts an important fact concerns the non-storability of electricity. In this case, according to economic theory, forward prices are related to the expected spot prices which are built on fundamental market expectations. In the following article the crucial impact parameters of forward electricity prices and the relationship between forward and future spot prices will be assessed by an empirical analysis of electricity prices at the European Energy Exchange and the Nord Pool Power Exchange. In fact, price formation in the considered markets is influenced by historic spot market prices yielding a biased forecasting power of long-term contracts. Although market and risk assessment measures of market participants and supply and demand shocks can partly explain the futures-spot bias inefficiencies in the analysed forward markets cannot be ruled out. (author)

  1. Long-term effects of electrical neurostimulation in patients with unstable angina : Refractory to conventional therapies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Jessica; DeJongste, Mike J. L.; Zijlstra, Felix; Staal, Michiel

    2007-01-01

    Background. Patients with unstable angina pectoris may become refractory to conventional therapies. Electrical neurostimulation with transcutaneous electrical stimulation and/or spinal cord stimulation has been shown to be effective for patients with refractory unstable angina pectoris in hospital

  2. Developing long-term scenario forecasts to support electricity generation investment decisions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Koen, Renée

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available models to develop scenario forecasts for South African load profiles (hour-to-hour changes in the electricity demand), which can then be used to support decisions regarding the electricity generation capacity required. Although historical load profile...

  3. Long-term impacts of electricity generation systems. Draft technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    Estimation of health and environmental impacts in a distant future driven by current electricity generation systems is not a well established scientific field. This issue includes many uncertainties which are seen in many processes of the impact estimation such as valuation techniques of environmental impacts for a long-term, and technology choice and policy options for a long run. When the IAEA held the Technical Committee Meeting on Estimating and Comparing Risks from Energy Systems in the Far Future in October 1997 in Vienna, there were many questions raised up from the participants on these issues. The purpose of this document is to introduce typical discussions at the Meeting, and to give a guidance to the methodological approaches for the readers. The decision making process is not central to this technical document. The main issue explained in the document is the ways of presenting health and environmental impacts in a distant future for decision makers. The primarily targeted readers of this document are, therefore, experts who will make the impact assessment and document the results to governmental offices and/or representatives of general public. For those who further implement decision making study, several documents are available from the IAEA. (in preparation 29]). To provide an effective guidance to the methodological approaches, several issues which are currently recognized as typical examples of the impacts on future generations were chosen. Global climate change, nuclear and non-nuclear wastes, long lived radionuclides dispersing world-wide, land use, and resource depletion are briefly discussed to illustrate several technical difficulties in estimating the impacts in the far future. About technology choice, the discussions illustrated in this document are based on only marginal increase of currently available electricity production systems. For smooth introduction of currently available methodological approaches to readers, issues like future

  4. Prices on electricity and transmission of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This publication contains data on prices of electric energy and transmission of electricity valid on 1 January 2002. The purpose is to illustrate the price changes on the electricity market in terms of prices for different customer categories. All companies holding network concessions for areas and all companies trading in electricity are included in this report, which is produced on an annual basis. The prices for transmission services 1 January 2002 were on the whole unchanged compared to the preceding year. For households the mean annual cost was SEK 856 for flats, SEK 4,194 one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 1,881 without electric heating. (1 SEK ∼ 0.1 USD). Electricity prices rose considerably on 1 January 2002 compared to the year before. The mean price per kWh for households according to standard agreement was SEK 0.356 for deliveries to flats, SEK 0.296 for apartments in one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 0.316 without electric heating. That means that the mean annual cost increased by SEK 171 for flats. For one- or two-family houses with electric heating, costs increased by SEK 1,424, and by SEK 379 for those houses without electric heating. The high costs of electricity may be explained in part by the development on the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool), where the spot price increased by 75 per cent during 2001. The price development for household customers during 1996-2002 is shown in a diagram

  5. Short-term optimal wind power generation capacity in liberalized electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Roescher, Mark; Larisson, Carlos; Garces, Francisco

    2007-01-01

    Mainly because of environmental concerns and fuel price uncertainties, considerable amounts of wind-based generation capacity are being added to some deregulated power systems. The rapid wind development registered in some countries has essentially been driven by strong subsidizing programs. Since wind investments are commonly isolated from market signals, installed wind capacity can be higher than optimal, leading to distortions of the power prices with a consequent loss of social welfare. In this work, the influence of wind generation on power prices in the framework of a liberalized electricity market has been assessed by means of stochastic simulation techniques. The developed methodology allows investigating the maximal wind capacity that would be profitably deployed if wind investments were subject to market conditions only. For this purpose, stochastic variables determining power prices are accurately modeled. A test system resembling the size and characteristics of the German power system has been selected for this study. The expected value of the optimal, short-term wind capacity is evaluated for a considerable number of random realizations of power prices. The impact of dispersing the wind capacity over statistical independent wind sites has also been evaluated. The simulation results reveal that fuel prices, installation and financing costs of wind investments are very influential parameters on the maximal wind capacity that might be accommodated in a market-based manner

  6. Assessment of the turkey’s electric power policies in terms of sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atis Selcuk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study, using statistical data published by the Turkish Electricity Transmission Company, analyzes key parameters such as installed capacity and energy demand growth rates, investment plans and emission rates, taking into consideration the expected increase in use through the year 2023. The results of the analyses were compared to relevant data from around the world. The weight of domestic - and especially renewable - resources in investment plans for the next 10 years was discussed. Recommendations for an investment plan to support sustainable development in Turkey are listed. Consequently, the lack of investment in domestic and renewable energy projects decreases the competitive power of Turkey vis-à-vis Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development countries in terms of many parameters. For a sustainable development, the country must make significant changes in its foreign-dependent energy production policies. Any future policies must encourage supplying local resources to meet the continuously increasing demand. Qualifications for incentive mechanisms applied to investments in renewable energy should be developed. The impact of the private sector on the installation of new plants must also be increased by quickly completing the privatization process.

  7. Hamiltonian term for a uniform dc electric field under the adiabatic approximation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siu, Zhuo Bin; Jalil, Mansoor B. A.; Tan, Seng Ghee

    2018-02-01

    In this work, we show that the disorder-free Kubo formula for the nonequilibrium value of an observable due to a dc electric field, represented by Exx ̂ in the Hamiltonian, can be interpreted as the standard time-independent theory response of the observable due to a time- and position-independent perturbation HMF. We derive the explicit expression for HMF and show that it originates from the adiabatic approximation to expression for HMF is generalized beyond the real spin degree of freedom to include other spinlike discrete degrees of freedom (e.g., valley and pseudospin). By direct comparison between Kubo formula and the time-independent perturbation theory, as well as the Sundaram-Niu wave-packet formalism, we show that HMF reproduces the effect of the E field, i.e., Exx ̂ , up to the first order. This replacement suggests the emergence of a spin current term that is not captured by the standard Kubo formula spin current calculation. We illustrate this via the exemplary spin current for the heavy-hole spin-3/2 Luttinger system.

  8. Optimal short-term operation schedule of a hydropower plant in a competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez-Diaz, Juan I.; Wilhelmi, Jose R.; Arevalo, Luis A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic programming model to solve the short-term scheduling problem of a hydropower plant that sells energy in a pool-based electricity market with the objective of maximizing the revenue. This is a nonlinear and non-concave problem subject to strong technical and strategic constraints, and in which discrete and continuous variables take part. The model described in this paper determines, in each hour of the planning horizon (typically from one day to one week), both the optimal number of units in operation (unit commitment) and the power to be generated by the committed units (generation dispatch). The power generated by each unit is considered as a nonlinear function of the actual water discharge and volume of the associated reservoir. The dependence of the units' efficiency and operating limits with the available gross head is also accounted for in this model. The application of this model to a real hydropower plant demonstrates its capabilities in providing the operation schedule that maximizes the revenue of the hydro plant while satisfying several constraints of different classes. In addition, the use of this model as a supporting tool to estimate the economic feasibility of a hydropower plant development project is also analyzed in the paper. (author)

  9. Assessing Short-Term Voltage Stability of Electric Power Systems by a Hierarchical Intelligent System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Zhang, Rui; Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhao Yang; Wang, Dianhui; Yang, Hongming; Wong, Kit Po

    2016-08-01

    In the smart grid paradigm, growing integration of large-scale intermittent renewable energies has introduced significant uncertainties to the operations of an electric power system. This makes real-time dynamic security assessment (DSA) a necessity to enable enhanced situational-awareness against the risk of blackouts. Conventional DSA methods are mainly based on the time-domain simulation, which are insufficiently fast and knowledge-poor. In recent years, the intelligent system (IS) strategy has been identified as a promising approach to facilitate real-time DSA. While previous works mainly concentrate on the rotor angle stability, this paper focuses on another yet increasingly important dynamic insecurity phenomenon-the short-term voltage instability, which involves fast and complex load dynamics. The problem is modeled as a classification subproblem for transient voltage collapse and a prediction subproblem for unacceptable dynamic voltage deviation. A hierarchical IS is developed to address the two subproblems sequentially. The IS is based on ensemble learning of random-weights neural networks and is implemented in an offline training, a real-time application, and an online updating pattern. The simulation results on the New England 39-bus system verify its superiority in both learning speed and accuracy over some state-of-the-art learning algorithms.

  10. Application of fuzzy – Neuro to model weather parameter variability impacts on electrical load based on long-term forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danladi Ali

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term load forecasting provides vital information about future load and it helps the power industries to make decision regarding electrical energy generation and delivery. In this work, fuzzy – neuro model is developed to forecast a year ahead load in relation to weather parameter (temperature and humidity in Mubi, Adamawa State. It is observed that: electrical load increased with increase in temperature and relative humidity does not show notable effect on electrical load. The accuracy of the prediction is obtained at 98.78% with the corresponding mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 1.22%. This confirms that fuzzy – neuro is a good tool for load forecasting. Keywords: Electrical load, Load forecasting, Fuzzy logic, Back propagation, Neuro-fuzzy, Weather parameter

  11. Electricity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    which removes the heat produced In the core and the colis. I represents an Isolator which is a kind of. 'switch' used to isolate the station from the grid. Note the huge Insulators (marked I) that are used. The steel structures marked S support the conductors through insulators (courtesy: Kirloskar Electric Company, Bangalore).

  12. Hot Spot Removal System: System description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-09-01

    Hazardous wastes contaminated with radionuclides, chemicals, and explosives exist across the Department of Energy complex and need to be remediated due to environmental concerns. Currently, an opportunity is being developed to dramatically reduce remediation costs and to assist in the acceleration of schedules associated with these wastes by deploying a Hot Spot Removal System. Removing the hot spot from the waste site will remove risk driver(s) and enable another, more cost effective process/option/remedial alternative (i.e., capping) to be applied to the remainder of the site. The Hot Spot Removal System consists of a suite of technologies that will be utilized to locate and remove source terms. Components of the system can also be used in a variety of other cleanup activities. This Hot Spot Removal System Description document presents technologies that were considered for possible inclusion in the Hot Spot Removal System, technologies made available to the Hot Spot Removal System, industrial interest in the Hot Spot Removal System''s subsystems, the schedule required for the Hot Spot Removal System, the evaluation of the relevant technologies, and the recommendations for equipment and technologies as stated in the Plan section

  13. An integrated model for long-term power generation planning toward future smart electricity systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Ishihara, Keiichi N.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • An integrated model for planning future smart electricity systems was developed. • The model consists of an optimization model and an hour-by-hour simulation model. • The model was applied to Tokyo area, Japan in light of the Fukushima Accident. • Paths to best generation mixes of smart electricity systems were obtained. • Detailed hourly operation patterns in smart electricity systems were obtained. - Abstract: In the present study, an integrated planning model was developed to find economically/environmentally optimized paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy and new controllable electric devices at the supply and demand sides respectively for regional scale. The integrated model is used to (i) plan the best power generation and capacity mixes to meet future electricity demand subject to various constraints using an optimization model; (ii) obtain detailed operation patterns of power plants and new controllable electric devices using an hour-by-hour simulation model based on the obtained optimized power generation mix. As a case study, the model was applied to power generation planning in the Tokyo area, Japan, out to 2030 in light of the Fukushima Accident. The paths toward best generation mixes of smart electricity systems in 2030 based on fossil fuel, hydro power, nuclear and renewable energy were obtained and the feasibility of the integrated model was proven

  14. The Natural Gas Dilemma in New England's Electricity Sector: Experts' Perspectives on Long Term Climate Issues and Policy Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Steven

    This thesis is an interpretive analysis of experts' perspectives on the climate implications of New England's reliance on natural gas for electricity generation. Specifically, this research, conducted through interviews and literature review, examines experts' opinions on the desired role of natural gas within the regional electricity sector, alternative energy resources, and state and regional policy opportunities toward the achievement of New England's ambitious long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. Experts expressed concern about the climate dilemma posed by a dependence on natural gas. However, interviews revealed that short-term reliability and cost considerations are paramount for many experts, and therefore a reliance on natural gas is the existing reality. To incentivize renewable generation technologies for the purposes of long-term climate stabilization, experts advocated for the expanded implementation of renewable portfolio standard, net metering, and feed-in tariff policies. More broadly, interviewees expressed the need for an array of complementary state and regional policies.

  15. Short-Term Multiple Forecasting of Electric Energy Loads for Sustainable Demand Planning in Smart Grids for Smart Homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeshina Y. Alani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption in the form of fuel or electricity is ubiquitous globally. Among energy types, electricity is crucial to human life in terms of cooking, warming and cooling of shelters, powering of electronic devices as well as commercial and industrial operations. Users of electronic devices sometimes consume fluctuating amounts of electricity generated from smart-grid infrastructure owned by the government or private investors. However, frequent imbalance is noticed between the demand and supply of electricity, hence effective planning is required to facilitate its distribution among consumers. Such effective planning is stimulated by the need to predict future consumption within a short period. Although several interesting classical techniques have been used for such predictions, they still require improvement for the purpose of reducing significant predictive errors when used for short-term load forecasting. This research develops a near-zero cooperative probabilistic scenario analysis and decision tree (PSA-DT model to address the lacuna of enormous predictive error faced by the state-of-the-art models. The PSA-DT is based on a probabilistic technique in view of the uncertain nature of electricity consumption, complemented by a DT to reinforce the collaboration of the two techniques. Based on detailed experimental analytics on residential, commercial and industrial data loads, the PSA-DT model outperforms the state-of-the-art models in terms of accuracy to a near-zero error rate. This implies that its deployment for electricity demand planning will be of great benefit to various smart-grid operators and homes.

  16. Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

    2004-01-01

    One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

  17. A study of the contract terms offered by the regional electricity companies to generators of renewable energy outside the NFFO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, N.C.; Limbrick, A.J.

    1996-01-01

    The aim of this study was to review the terms and conditions of contract for the purchase of renewable energy currently offered by the Regional Electricity Companies (RECs) outside the Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation (NFFO), through consultation with electricity generators. It focused on projects contracted under the first and second tranches of the NFFO, and those which have been developed outside this support mechanism (both renewable and fossil-fuelled), but which are characterised by being ''embedded'' in the RECs' distribution networks. (UK)

  18. Low-frequency electrical stimulation induces long-term depression in patients with chronic tension-type headache

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindelof, Kim; Jung, Kerstin; Ellrich, Jens

    2010-01-01

    Repetitive low-frequency electrical stimulation (LFS) induces pain inhibition in healthy volunteers and in animals, but it is unknown whether it has an analgesic effect in patients with headache. The aim of this study was to investigate if LFS could induce prolonged pain inhibition, called long......-term depression (LTD), in patients with chronic tension-type headache (CTTH). Twenty CTTH patients and 20 healthy volunteers were exposed to 20 min LFS (1 Hz) to the forehead. LTD was measured as a decrease in pain response to electrical stimulation in a 1-h post-LFS period following LFS. The LFS induced...

  19. Portfolio Decision of Short-Term Electricity Forecasted Prices through Stochastic Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustín A. Sánchez de la Nieta

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Deregulated electricity markets encourage firms to compete, making the development of renewable energy easier. An ordinary parameter of electricity markets is the electricity market price, mainly the day-ahead electricity market price. This paper describes a new approach to forecast day-ahead electricity market prices, whose methodology is divided into two parts as: (i forecasting of the electricity price through autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models; and (ii construction of a portfolio of ARIMA models per hour using stochastic programming. A stochastic programming model is used to forecast, allowing many input data, where filtering is needed. A case study to evaluate forecasts for the next 24 h and the portfolio generated by way of stochastic programming are presented for a specific day-ahead electricity market. The case study spans four weeks of each one of the years 2014, 2015 and 2016 using a specific pre-treatment of input data of the stochastic programming (SP model. In addition, the results are discussed, and the conclusions are drawn.

  20. Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity. New evidence from Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athukorala, P.P.A Wasantha; Wilson, Clevo [School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (Australia)

    2010-09-15

    This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 0.32, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity of 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and (4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages in the country. (author)

  1. Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity. New evidence from Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Athukorala, P.P.A Wasantha; Wilson, Clevo

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 0.32, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity of 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and (4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages in the country. (author)

  2. Short-term electrical stimulation to promote nerve repair and functional recovery in a rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvey, Colleen; Zhou, Wenda; Stakleff, Kimberly Sloan; Sendelbach-Sloan, Patricia; Harkins, Amy B; Lanzinger, William; Willits, Rebecca Kuntz

    2015-02-01

    To evaluate the effect of duration of electrical stimulation on peripheral nerve regeneration and functional recovery. Based on previous work, we hypothesized that applying 10 minutes of electrical stimulation to a 10-mm rat sciatic nerve defect would significantly improve nerve regeneration and functional recovery compared with the non-electrical stimulation group. A silicone tube filled with a collagen gel was used to bridge a 10-mm nerve defect in rats, and either 10 minutes or 60 minutes of electrical stimulation was applied to the nerve during surgery. Controls consisted of a silicone tube with collagen gel and no electrical stimulation or an isograft. We analyzed recovery over a 12-week period, measuring sciatic functional index and extensor postural thrust scores and concluding with histological examination of the nerve. Functional assessment scores at week 12 increased 24% in the 10-minute group as compared to the no stimulation control group. Electrical stimulation of either 10 or 60 minutes improved the number of nerve fibers over no stimulation. Additionally, the electrical stimulation group's histomorphometric analysis was not different from the isograft group. Several previous studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of 60-minute stimulations on peripheral nerve regeneration. This study demonstrated that an electrical stimulation of 10 minutes enhanced several functional and histomorphometric outcomes of nerve regeneration and was overall similar to a 60-minute stimulation over 12 weeks. Decreasing the electrical stimulation time from 60 minutes to 10 minutes provided a potential clinically feasible and safe method to enhance nerve regeneration and functional recovery. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Short and long-term carbon balance of bioenergy electricity production fueled by forest treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Katharine C; Barnes, Kallie L; Ryan, Michael G; Neff, Jason C

    2014-01-01

    Forests store large amounts of carbon in forest biomass, and this carbon can be released to the atmosphere following forest disturbance or management. In the western US, forest fuel reduction treatments designed to reduce the risk of high severity wildfire can change forest carbon balance by removing carbon in the form of biomass, and by altering future potential wildfire behavior in the treated stand. Forest treatment carbon balance is further affected by the fate of this biomass removed from the forest, and the occurrence and intensity of a future wildfire in this stand. In this study we investigate the carbon balance of a forest treatment with varying fates of harvested biomass, including use for bioenergy electricity production, and under varying scenarios of future disturbance and regeneration. Bioenergy is a carbon intensive energy source; in our study we find that carbon emissions from bioenergy electricity production are nearly twice that of coal for the same amount of electricity. However, some emissions from bioenergy electricity production are offset by avoided fossil fuel electricity emissions. The carbon benefit achieved by using harvested biomass for bioenergy electricity production may be increased through avoided pyrogenic emissions if the forest treatment can effectively reduce severity. Forest treatments with the use of harvested biomass for electricity generation can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere by offsetting fossil fuel electricity generation emissions, and potentially by avoided pyrogenic emissions due to reduced intensity and severity of a future wildfire in the treated stand. However, changes in future wildfire and regeneration regimes may affect forest carbon balance and these climate-induced changes may influence forest carbon balance as much, or more, than bioenergy production.

  4. A Drosophila wing spot test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayaki, Toshikazu; Yoshikawa, Isao; Niikawa, Norio; Hoshi, Masaharu.

    1986-01-01

    A Drosophila wing spot test system was used to investigate the effects of low doses of X-rays, gamma rays, and both 2.3 and 14.1 MeV neutrons on somatic chromosome mutation (SCM) induction. The incidence of SCM was significantly increased with any type of radiation, with evident linear dose-response relationship within the range of 3 to 20 cGy. It was estimated that relative biological effectiveness value for SCM induction of 2.3 MeV neutrons to X-rays and gamma rays is much higher than that of 14.1 MeV neutrons to those photons (2.4 vs 8.0). The Drosophila wing spot test system seems to become a promising in vivo experimental method for higher animals in terms of the lack of necessity for a marvelously large number of materials required in conventional test system. (Namekawa, K.)

  5. Standard for supply security. A minimum standard to guarantee the balance between electricity demand and supply for the long term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheepers, M.J.J.; Van Werven, M.J.N.; Seebregts, A.J.; Poort, J.P.; De Nooij, M.; Baarsma, B.E.

    2004-05-01

    The development and use of a minimum reliability standard in the Dutch electricity market to guarantee an adequate balance between electricity demand and supply in the longer term are discussed. This standard can be based on the duration of a power outage and the related costs for society relative to the costs to prevent the power outage. The reliability standard can be translated in an adequacy standard when the reliability of foreign electricity supply to the Dutch market is taken into account. With a theoretical analysis and an assessment of the use of standards in foreign electricity markets and other sectors this study provides a survey of the use of standards in securing public interests. In electricity markets reliability standards can be used obligatory or only to inform market participants of the adequacy of supply preferred by consumers. If no standard is used, the market should rely on the economic incentives provided by contracts and liability. This study proposes to use a reliability standard for calculating the required generation capacity in an ex-ante market analysis using different future scenarios. On the basis of several market indicators, expected market developments can be monitored. Assessment of the market developments relative to the required generation capacity will give a signal to market participants with respect to the expected adequacy in the longer term (7 to 10 years). The assessment and the resulting signal should help to improve market transparency and assist producers, suppliers and consumers in their decisions towards an effective and efficient response on long-term market developments. Market monitoring results can be used by the government to take specific action, if necessary, to reduce barriers to invest. However, more general policy measures should not be linked to the monitoring results since this could provoke strategic behaviour [nl

  6. Purchase of power by State Electricity Boards from biomass gasifier systems: formulating a long term national policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, B.C.

    1992-01-01

    Current policy for purchase of power from renewable sources of energy by State Electricity Boards in India is examined and certain changes in that policy are suggested. State Electricity Boards are reluctant to buy power from renewables as such a purchase is seen by the Boards as being of against their economic interests. But if socio-environmental and climatological costs of power of thermal plants are taken into consideration, it becomes imperative that a long term policy for power purchase from renewables by electricity boards will have to be followed. Such a policy is outlined. After giving formulae for unit cost of generation from thermal power plants, diesel generation (DG) sets and biomass gasification, it is recommended that basis for the purchase price for power generated through biomass gas should be the cost of generation through DG sets or cost of generation through biomass gasification whichever is lower. A clause for automatic price escalation should also be a part of such policy. Some measures to compensate electricity boards for purchase of power from renewables are suggested. They include levying of a special surcharge by boards on their electricity sales and funding by the Central Government. (M.G.B.)

  7. Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on the Analysis of User Electricity Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuancheng Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The smart meter is an important part of the smart grid, and in order to take full advantage of smart meter data, this paper mines the electricity behaviors of smart meter users to improve the accuracy of load forecasting. First, the typical day loads of users are calculated separately according to different date types (ordinary workdays, day before holidays, holidays. Second, the similarity between user electricity behaviors is mined and the user electricity loads are clustered to classify the users with similar behaviors into the same cluster. Finally, the load forecasting model based on the Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OS-ELM is applied to different clusters to conduct load forecasting and the load forecast is summed to obtain the system load. In order to prove the validity of the proposed method, we performed simulation experiments on the MATLAB platform using smart meter data from the Ireland electric power cooperation. The experimental results show that the proposed method is able to mine the user electricity behaviors deeply, improve the accuracy of load forecasting by the reasonable clustering of users, and reveal the relationship between forecasting accuracy and cluster numbers.

  8. Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Buitrago

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX. The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. The New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

  9. Electrical Rating of Concentrated Photovoltaic (CPV) Systems: Long-Term Performance Analysis and Comparison to Conventional PV Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Burhan, Muhammad

    2016-02-29

    The dynamic nature of meteorological data and the commercial availability of diverse photovoltaic systems, ranging from single-junction silicon-based PV panels to concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems utilizing multi-junction solar cells and a two-axis solar tracker, demand a simple but accurate methodology for energy planners and PV system designers to understand the economic feasibility of photovoltaic or renewable energy systems. In this paper, an electrical rating methodology is proposed that provides a common playing field for planners, consumers and PV manufacturers to evaluate the long-term performance of photovoltaic systems, as long-term electricity rating is deemed to be a quick and accurate method to evaluate economic viability and determine plant sizes and photovoltaic system power production. A long-term performance analysis based on monthly and electrical ratings (in kWh/m2/year) of two developed CPV prototypes, the Cassegrain mini dish and Fresnel lens CPVs with triple-junction solar cells operating under the meteorological conditions of Singapore, is presented in this paper. Performances are compared to other conventional photovoltaic systems.

  10. Radioisotope Electric Propulsion (REP): A Near-Term Approach to Nuclear Propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, George R.; Manzella, David H.; Kamhawi, Hani; Kremic, Tibor; Oleson, Steven R.; Dankanich, John W.; Dudzinski, Leonard A.

    2009-01-01

    Studies over the last decade have shown radioisotope-based nuclear electric propulsion to be enhancing and, in some cases, enabling for many potential robotic science missions. Also known as radioisotope electric propulsion (REP), the technology offers the performance advantages of traditional reactor-powered electric propulsion (i.e., high specific impulse propulsion at large distances from the Sun), but with much smaller, affordable spacecraft. Future use of REP requires development of radioisotope power sources with system specific powers well above that of current systems. The US Department of Energy and NASA have developed an advanced Stirling radioisotope generator (ASRG) engineering unit, which was subjected to rigorous flight qualification-level tests in 2008, and began extended lifetime testing later that year. This advancement, along with recent work on small ion thrusters and life extension technology for Hall thrusters, could enable missions using REP sometime during the next decade.

  11. Analysis of energy and water management in terms of fuel-cell electricity generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzer, R.; Höhlein, B.

    Hydrogen-powered low-temperature fuel cells (PEFCs) are the energy conversion units in vehicles with methanol as the energy carrier and a power train consisting of the following main units: methanol reformer (H2 production) including catalytic converter, gas treatment, PEFC with peripheral units, electric motor with electric controllers and gearbox. The process engineering analysis is based on a simulation model and describes the energy and water management as a function of different assumptions as well as operating and ambient conditions for net electricity generation in a PEFC-powered power train. In particular, it presents an approach for balancing both water recovery (PEFC) and the use of water for the methanol reforming process as well as for the humidification of the PEFC. The overall balances present an optimised energy management including peripheral air compression for the PEFC.

  12. ESA uncovers Geminga's `hot spot'

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-07-01

    16 July 2004 Astronomers using ESA’s X-ray observatory XMM-Newton have detected a small, bright ‘hot spot’ on the surface of the neutron star called Geminga, 500 light-years away. The hot spot is the size of a football field and is caused by the same mechanism producing Geminga’s X-ray tails. This discovery identifies the missing link between the X-ray and gamma-ray emission from Geminga. hi-res Size hi-res: 1284 kb Credits: ESA, P. Caraveo (IASF, Milan) Geminga's hot spot This figure shows the effects of charged particles accelerated in the magnetosphere of Geminga. Panel (a) shows an image taken with the EPIC instrument on board the XMM-Newton observatory. The bright tails, made of particles kicked out by Geminga’s strong magnetic field, trail the neutron star as it moves about in space. Panel (b) shows how electrically charged particles interact with Geminga’s magnetic field. For example, if electrons (blue) are kicked out by the star, positrons (in red) hit the star’s magnetic poles like in an ‘own goal’. Panel (c) illustrates the size of Geminga’s magnetic field (blue) compared to that of the star itself at the centre (purple). The magnetic field is tilted with respect to Geminga’s rotation axis (red). Panel (d) shows the magnetic poles of Geminga, where charged particles hit the surface of the star, creating a two-million degrees hot spot, a region much hotter than the surroundings. As the star spins on its rotation axis, the hot spot comes into view and then disappears, causing the periodic colour change seen by XMM-Newton. An animated version of the entire sequence can be found at: Click here for animated GIF [low resolution, animated GIF, 5536 KB] Click here for AVI [high resolution, AVI with DIVX compression, 19128 KB] hi-res Size hi-res: 371 kb Credits: ESA, P. Caraveo (IASF, Milan) Geminga's hot spot, panel (a) Panel (a) shows an image taken with the EPIC instrument on board the XMM-Newton observatory. The bright tails, made of

  13. Mononucleosis spot test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monospot test; Heterophile antibody test; Heterophile agglutination test; Paul-Bunnell test; Forssman antibody test ... The mononucleosis spot test is done when symptoms of mononucleosis are ... Fatigue Fever Large spleen (possibly) Sore throat Tender ...

  14. Plasma spot welding of ferritic stainless steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesnjak, A.; Tusek, J.

    2002-01-01

    Plasma spot wedding of ferritic stainless steels studied. The study was focused on welding parameters, plasma and shieldings and the optimum welding equipment. Plasma-spot welded overlap joints on a 0.8 mm thick ferritic stainless steel sheet were subjected to a visual examination and mechanical testing in terms of tension-shear strength. Several macro specimens were prepared Plasma spot welding is suitable to use the same gas as shielding gas and as plasma gas , i. e. a 98% Ar/2% H 2 gas mixture. Tension-shear strength of plasma-spot welded joint was compared to that of resistance sport welded joints. It was found that the resistance welded joints withstand a somewhat stronger load than the plasma welded joints due to a large weld sport diameter of the former. Strength of both types of welded joints is approximately the same. (Author) 32 refs

  15. Induction of long-term depression-like plasticity by pairings of motor imagination and peripheral electrical stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mads eJochumsen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Long-term depression (LTD and long-term potentiation (LTP-like plasticity are models of synaptic plasticity which have been associated with memory and learning. The induction of LTD and LTP-like plasticity, using different stimulation protocols, has been proposed as a means of addressing abnormalities in cortical excitability associated with conditions such as focal hand dystonia and stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the excitability of the cortical projections to the tibialis anterior muscle could be decreased when dorsiflexion of the ankle joint was imagined and paired with peripheral electrical stimulation of the nerve supplying the antagonist soleus muscle. The effect of stimulus timing was evaluated by comparing paired stimulation timed to reach the cortex before, at and after the onset of imagined movement. Fourteen healthy subjects participated in six experimental sessions held on non-consecutive days. The timing of stimulation delivery was determined offline based on the contingent negative variation (CNV of electroencephalography (EEG brain data obtained during imagined dorsiflexion. Afferent stimulation was provided via a single pulse electrical stimulation to the peripheral nerve paired, based on the CNV, with motor imagination of ankle dorsiflexion. A significant decrease (P=0.001 in the excitability of the cortical projection of tibialis anterior was observed when the afferent volley from the electrical stimulation of the tibial nerve (TN reached the cortex at the onset of motor imagination based on the CNV. When TN stimulation was delivered before (P=0.62, or after (P=0.23 imagined movement onset there was no significant effect. Nor was a significant effect found when electrical stimulation of the TN was applied independent of imagined movement (P=0.45. Therefore, the excitability of the cortical projection to a muscle can be inhibited when electrical stimulation of the nerve supplying the antagonist muscle

  16. How many years should I be married: Long-term power contracts in the electric utility industry in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy Ferre, Alberto

    1998-12-01

    This dissertation deals with the effects of long-term power contracts in the electric utility in Texas on consumer welfare, investigating economic and legal aspects of price formation. The study focuses on the institutions---vertical integration and contractual arrangements---that govern the transactions between the different links in the electricity provision chain and its effects on retail electricity prices for residential, commercial and industrial customers. The main hypothesis is that long-term power contracts serve as an uncertainty reduction mechanism to the buyer by clearly defining the conditions of the exchange for a significant period of time. In turn, this reduction of uncertainty is compensated by a premium to the seller in the form of higher prices. It is found that long-term wholesale power contracts present varying levels of flexibility in the terms of the exchange that are directly translated into prices and bills, providing support to the main hypothesis. Control variables include the role of new technologies, degree of competition and population demographics. Each control variable has differing impacts of different customer classes, depending on their demand elasticity. The study poses several interesting policy implications. First, the institutions that will govern and supervise the functioning of the market have an important weight in its success. The results indicate that competition cannot be a policy objective in itself There is a balancing act between the additional needs of a functional market in terms of infrastructure, information and coordination, and the inefficiencies that occur for lack of consumer options. Second, all customers are not equal. Some customer classes have fewer alternatives than others do, their consumption patterns differ and their dependence on electricity varies. Therefore, a policy that treats all customer classes the same will produce an inferior outcome. Third, the relevant environment matters. Legislative

  17. Short Term Electric Production Technology Switching Under Carbon Cap and Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald F. Larson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This study examines fuel switching in electricity production following the introduction of the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS for greenhouse gas emissions. A short-run restricted cost equation is estimated with carbon permits, high-carbon fuels, and low carbon fuels as variable inputs. Shadow values and substitution elasticities for carbon-free energy resources from nuclear, hydroelectric and renewable sources are imputed from the cost equation. The empirical analysis examines 12 European countries using monthly data on fuel use, prices, and electricity generation during the first phase of the European Emissions Trading System. Despite low emission permit prices, this study finds statistically significant substitution between fossil fuels and carbon free sources of energy for electric power production. Significant substitution between fossil fuels and nuclear energy also was found. Still, while 18 of the 20 substitution elasticities are statistically significant, they are all less than unity, consistent with limited substitution. Overall, these results suggest that prices for carbon emission permits relative to prices for carbon and carbon free sources of energy do matter but that electric power producers have limited operational flexibility in the short-run to satisfy greenhouse gas emission limits.

  18. Long term energy and emission implications of a global shift to electricity-based public rail transportation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Kim, Son H.

    2015-01-01

    With high reliance on light-duty vehicles in the present, the future of global transportation system is also geared towards private modes, which has significant energy and emission implications. Public transportation has been argued as an alternative strategy for meeting the rising transportation demands of the growing world, especially the poor, in a sustainable and energy efficient way. The present study analyzes an important yet under-researched question – what are the long-term energy and emission implications of an electric rail based passenger transportation system for meeting both long and short distance passenter transportation needs? We analyze a suite of electric rail share scenarios with and without climate policy. In the reference scenario, the transportation system will evolve towards dominance of fossil based light-duty vehicles. We find that an electric rail policy is more successful than an economy wide climate policy in reducing transport sector energy demand and emissions. Economy wide emissions however can only be reduced through a broader climate policy, the cost of which can be reduced by hundreds of billions of dollars across the century when implemented in combination with the transport sector focused electric rail policy. Moreover, higher share of electric rail enhances energy security for oil importing nations and reduces vehicular congestion and road infrastructure requirement as well. -- Highlights: •Economy wide carbon price policy will have little impact on transportation emissions. •Focused energy and emission mitigation policies required for transportation sector. •Large global shift towards electric rail based public transport is one possible option. •Transport sector focused policy will have marginal impact on total global emissions. •A combined transport sector and economy wide policy can reduce costs significantly

  19. The share of nuclear energy in the long-term electricity generation development in Poland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipko, Krzysztof; Kwiatkowski, Mieczyslaw

    1999-01-01

    Polish power sector is currently undergoing rapid restructuring changes and according to new energy legislation electricity begins to be recognized as other tradable goods. Simultaneously an awareness of interdependencies between power generation expansion and a protection of the environment increases. Presented paper shows these interdependencies against the background of current and future electricity demand satisfying plans determined in Development Office of Polish Power Grid Company in the time range up to the year 2020. Special consideration is given to constraints assumed for power generation sector, relating to emissions of air pollutants, and their influence on possible changes in the mix of fuels used for power generation. In the first part of the paper an applied methodology of drawing up demand satisfying plans consistent with the rules of integrated resource planning (IRP) is described. Accepted macroeconomic assumptions (including these concerning electricity demand forecast) and development constraints related to emissions of air pollutants consistent with national legislation as well as signed international agreements are presented. The set of new generation technologies considered in development studies is described. Two scenarios of the power generation expansion plants developed for a high electricity demand growth are presented. One of them takes into account CO 2 emission constraint while the other neglects it. In the paper it is proved that the above constraint has great influence on the future mix of power plants. In the case when this constraint is taken into account the expansion of electricity generation beyond the year 2010 is based on technologies which do not increase CO 2 emissions, as for example, nuclear power. (author)

  20. Metallurgical Effects of Shunting Current on Resistance Spot-Welded Joints of AA2219 Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari Vardanjani, M.; Araee, A.; Senkara, J.; Jakubowski, J.; Godek, J.

    2016-08-01

    Shunting effect is the loss of electrical current via the secondary circuit provided due to the existence of previous nugget in a series of welding spots. This phenomenon influences on metallurgical aspects of resistance spot-welded (RSW) joints in terms of quality and performance. In this paper RSW joints of AA2219 sheets with 1 mm thickness are investigated metallurgically for shunted and single spots. An electro-thermal finite element analysis is performed on the RSW process of shunted spot and temperature distribution and variation are obtained. These predictions are then compared with experimental micrographs. Three values of 5 mm, 20 mm, and infinite (i.e., single spot) are assumed for welding distance. Numerical and experimental results are matching each other in terms of nugget and HAZ geometry as increasing distance raised nugget size and symmetry of HAZ. In addition, important effect of shunting current on nugget thickness, microstructure, and Copper segregation on HAZ grain boundaries were discovered. A quantitative analysis is also performed about the influence of welding distance on important properties including ratio of nugget thickness and diameter ( r t), ratio of HAZ area on shunted and free side of nugget ( r HA), and ratio of equivalent segregated and total amount of Copper, measured in sample ( r Cu) on HAZ. Increasing distance from 5 mm to infinite, indicated a gain of 111.04, -45.55, and -75.15% in r t, r HA, and r Cu, respectively, while obtained ratios for 20 mm welding distance was suitable compared to single spot.

  1. Clinically apparent long-term electric disturbances in the acute and very long-term of patent foramen ovale device-based closure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigatelli, Gianluca; Zuin, Marco; Pedon, Luigi; Zecchel, Roberto; Dell'Avvocata, Fabio; Carrozza, Antonio; Zennaro, Marco; Pastore, Gianni; Zanon, Francesco

    2017-03-01

    Incidence of electrical disturbances in patients submitted to transcatheter patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure has not been fully clarified in a large population. The aim of the study is to assess the incidence of atrial fibrillation, supraventricular tachi-arrhythmias, and atrio-ventricular block in the acute and very long-term follow-up. We reviewed the medical and instrumental data of 1000 consecutive patients (mean age 47.3±17.1years) prospectively enrolled in two centers over a 13-year period (February 1999 to February 2012) for right-to-left (R-to-L) shunt ICE-aided catheter-based closure using different devices. Successful transcatheter PFO closure was achieved in 99.8% of the patients. Implanted devices were: Amplatzer PFO Occluder in 463 patients (46.3%), Amplatzer ASD Cribriform Occluder in 420 patients (42.0%), Premere Occlusion System in 95 patients (9.5%), and Biostar Occluder in 22 patients (2.2%). Postprocedural electrical complications occurred in 5.9% of patients. The only independent predictors of electrophysiological complications were female gender (OR 2.3, 0.5-5.1 [95% CI], p30mm (OR 5.0, 1.2-7.2 [95% CI], pgender (OR 2.3, 0.5-5.1 [95% CI], p30mm (OR 5.0, 1.2-7.2 [95% CI], p<0.001). Device-based closure of PFO using different devices, appeared very safe from an electrophysiological point of view with low incidence of electrical disturbances even in the very long-term follow-up. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Near-term electric test vehicle ETV-2. Phase II. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-04-01

    A unique battery-powered passenger vehicle has been developed that provides a significant improvement over conventional electric vehicle performance, particularly during stop-and-go driving. The vehicle is unique in two major respects: (1) the power system incorporates a flywheel that stores energy during regenerative braking and makes possible the acceleration capability needed to keep up with traffic without reducing range to unacceptable values; and (2) lightweight plastic materials are used for the vehicle unibody to minimize weight and increase range. These features were analyzed and demonstrated in an electric test vehicle, ETV-2. Characteristics of this vehicle are summarized. Information is presented on: vehicle design, fabrication, safety testing, and performance testing; power system design and operation; flywheel; battery pack performance; and controls and electronic equipment. (LCL)

  3. Long term forecasting of hourly electricity consumption in local areas in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Andersen, Frits; Larsen, Helge V.; Gaardestrup, R.B.

    2013-01-01

    to change proportional to changes in the aggregated national electricity consumption. That is, specific local conditions are not considered. Yet, from measurements of local consumption we know that:. •consumption profiles differ between local areas,•consumption by categories of customers contribute...... differently to the aggregated consumption profile,•the weight of categories of customers differ between local areas.In this paper we present a model calculating local consumption as composed of consumption by categories of customers with specific consumption profiles and different weights in local areas....... The model describes the entire profile of hourly consumption and is a first step towards differentiated local predictions of electricity consumption.The model is based on metering of aggregated hourly consumption at transformer stations covering selected local areas and on national statistics of hourly...

  4. Short-Term Synaptic Plasticity Regulation in Solution-Gated Indium-Gallium-Zinc-Oxide Electric-Double-Layer Transistors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Chang Jin; Liu, Yang Hui; Zhu, Li Qiang; Feng, Ping; Shi, Yi; Wan, Qing

    2016-04-20

    In the biological nervous system, synaptic plasticity regulation is based on the modulation of ionic fluxes, and such regulation was regarded as the fundamental mechanism underlying memory and learning. Inspired by such biological strategies, indium-gallium-zinc-oxide (IGZO) electric-double-layer (EDL) transistors gated by aqueous solutions were proposed for synaptic behavior emulations. Short-term synaptic plasticity, such as paired-pulse facilitation, high-pass filtering, and orientation tuning, was experimentally emulated in these EDL transistors. Most importantly, we found that such short-term synaptic plasticity can be effectively regulated by alcohol (ethyl alcohol) and salt (potassium chloride) additives. Our results suggest that solution gated oxide-based EDL transistors could act as the platforms for short-term synaptic plasticity emulation.

  5. Levenberg-Marquardt Recurrent Networks for Long-Term Electricity Peak Load Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Charles O.P. Marpaung; Weerakorn Ongsakul; Yusak Tanoto

    2011-01-01

    Increasing electricity demand in Java-Madura-Bali, Indonesia, must be addressed appropriately to avoid blackout by determining accurate peak load forecasting. Econometric approach may not be sufficient to handle this problem due to limitation in modelling nonlinear interaction of factors involved. To overcome this problem, Elman and Jordan Recurrent Neural Network based on Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm is proposed to forecast annual peak load of Java-Madura-Bali interconnection for 2...

  6. Organization of Electricity Transmission in View of Long Term Energy Policy Goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabolic, D.

    2011-01-01

    European electricity transmission industry is facing both organizational reform due to the 3 r d Package implementation, and more structural challenges related to electricity system greenification. Relying on literature, I will first analyze the contemporary TSO repositioning, avoiding dogmatic attitudes which have been prevailing in public debates over the last several years, to conclude that: (a) there is not a way to actually prove that either of the three organizational forms from the 3 r d Package has clear advantages over any of the others, and thus (b) the debate should be ended pragmatically in a political arena following a decision on what the goal really is (or, what kind of interests should be pursued). After analyzing the organizational issues I will turn to what I believe is the most important challenge in front of TSOs: gradual greenification of the electricity supply industry, with technical and economic difficulties related to it. I will stress the importance of sound and accountable policy making and enforcement. (author)

  7. Conceptual design of thermal energy storage systems for near term electric utility applications. Volume 1: Screening of concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausz, W.; Berkowitz, B. J.; Hare, R. C.

    1978-01-01

    Over forty thermal energy storage (TES) concepts gathered from the literature and personal contacts were studied for their suitability for the electric utility application of storing energy off-peak discharge during peak hours. Twelve selections were derived from the concepts for screening; they used as storage media high temperature water (HTW), hot oil, molten salts, and packed beds of solids such as rock. HTW required pressure containment by prestressed cast-iron or concrete vessels, or lined underground cavities. Both steam generation from storage and feedwater heating from storage were studied. Four choices were made for further study during the project. Economic comparison by electric utility standard cost practices, and near-term availability (low technical risk) were principal criteria but suitability for utility use, conservation potential, and environmental hazards were considered.

  8. Cotton-wool spots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, G C; Brown, M M; Hiller, T; Fischer, D; Benson, W E; Magargal, L E

    1985-01-01

    A series of 24 consecutive patients presenting with a fundus picture characterized by a predominance of cotton-wool spots, or a single cotton-wool spot, is reported. Excluded were patients with known diabetes mellitus. Etiologic conditions found included previously undiagnosed diabetes mellitus in five patients, systemic hypertension in five patients, cardiac valvular disease in two patients, radiation retinopathy in two patients, and severe carotid artery obstruction in two patients. Dermatomyositis, systemic lupus erythematosus, polyarteritis nodosa, leukemia, AIDS, Purtscher's retinopathy, metastatic carcinoma, intravenous drug abuse, partial central retinal artery obstruction, and giant cell arteritis were each found in one patient. In only one patient did a systemic workup fail to reveal an underlying cause. The presence of even one cotton-wool spot in an otherwise normal fundus necessitates an investigation to ascertain systemic etiologic factors.

  9. Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taliotis, Constantinos; Taibi, Emanuele; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Bazilian, Morgan; Welsch, Manuel

    2017-10-01

    The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.

  10. Long-term price and environmental effects in a liberalised electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, Wietze; Kruseman, Gideon

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the effects of endogenous investment decisions in a liberalised electricity market on prices and the environment in the time horizon 2000-2050. Therefore, a computational, game-theoretic, recursive dynamic model is developed. Simulations with the model indicate that perfect competition leads to lower prices and benefits the environment in the form of lower acid and smog emissions. Continued exercise of market power leads to postponed investments and more diversity in the technology portfolio, while under perfect competition there is an earlier switch to gas-based technologies. (author)

  11. Novel effects of demand side management data on accuracy of electrical energy consumption modeling and long-term forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ardakani, F.J.; Ardehali, M.M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Novel effects of DSM data on electricity consumption forecasting is examined. • Optimal ANN models based on IPSO and SFL algorithms are developed. • Addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36%. - Abstract: Worldwide implementation of demand side management (DSM) programs has had positive impacts on electrical energy consumption (EEC) and the examination of their effects on long-term forecasting is warranted. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of historical DSM data on accuracy of EEC modeling and long-term forecasting. To achieve the objective, optimal artificial neural network (ANN) models based on improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) and shuffled frog-leaping (SFL) algorithms are developed for EEC forecasting. For long-term EEC modeling and forecasting for the U.S. for 2010–2030, two historical data types used in conjunction with developed models include (i) EEC and (ii) socio-economic indicators, namely, gross domestic product, energy imports, energy exports, and population for 1967–2009 period. Simulation results from IPSO-ANN and SFL-ANN models show that using socio-economic indicators as input data achieves lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for long-term EEC forecasting, as compared with EEC data. Based on IPSO-ANN, it is found that, for the U.S. EEC long-term forecasting, the addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36% and results in the estimated difference of 3592.8 MBOE (5849.9 TW h) in EEC for 2010–2030

  12. Mid-term evaluation of the NRECA (National Rural Electric Cooperative Association) Central America Rural Electrification Support Program (CARES)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perlack, R.D. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); Jones, H.G. (Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (USA)); Garcia, A. III (Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (USA). Dept. of Agricultural Engineering); Flores, E. (Flores (Edgar), Guatemala City (Guatemala))

    1990-09-01

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory was requested by the Regional Office for Central America and Panama to conduct a mid-term evaluation of the Cares Project, which is being implemented by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. This evaluation was conducted over a three week period by a four person team. Overall, the project has had numerous successes and is highly valued by local counterpart utilities and USAID Missions. Notwithstanding the significant results of the project, changes can be made in certain operating procedures and in the direction of some programmatic activities that can lead to an even more effective project.

  13. Levenberg-Marquardt Recurrent Networks for Long-Term Electricity Peak Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles O.P. Marpaung

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Increasing electricity demand in Java-Madura-Bali, Indonesia, must be addressed appropriately to avoid blackout by determining accurate peak load forecasting. Econometric approach may not be sufficient to handle this problem due to limitation in modelling nonlinear interaction of factors involved. To overcome this problem, Elman and Jordan Recurrent Neural Network based on Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm is proposed to forecast annual peak load of Java-Madura-Bali interconnection for 2009-2011. Actual historical regional data which consists of economic, electricity statistic and weather during 1995-2008 are applied as inputs. The networks structure is firstly justified using true historical data of 1995-2005 to forecast peak load of 2006-2008. Afterwards, peak load forecasting of 2009-2011 is conducted subsequently using actual historical data of 1995-2008. Overall, the proposed networks shown better performance compared to that obtained by Levenberg-Marquardt-Feedforward network, Double-log Multiple Regression, and with projection by PLN for 2006-2010.

  14. Techno-economic analysis of concentrated solar power plants in terms of levelized cost of electricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musi, Richard; Grange, Benjamin; Sgouridis, Sgouris; Guedez, Rafael; Armstrong, Peter; Slocum, Alexander; Calvet, Nicolas

    2017-06-01

    Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is an important metric which provides one way to compare the economic competitiveness of different electricity generation systems, calculated simply by dividing lifetime costs by lifetime production. Hidden behind the simplicity of this formula are various assumptions which may significantly alter results. Different LCOE studies exist in the literature, although their assumptions are rarely explicitly stated. This analysis gives all formulas and assumptions which allow for inter-study comparisons. The results of this analysis indicate that CSP LCOE is reducing markedly over time and that given the right location and market conditions, the SunShot 6¢/kWh 2020 target can be reached. Increased industrial cooperation is needed to advance the CSP market and continue to drive down LCOE. The results also indicate that there exist a country and technology level learning effect, either when installing an existing CSP technology in a new country or when using a new technology in an existing CSP country, which seems to impact market progress.

  15. Operation of Modern Distribution Power Systems in Competitive Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao

    , DG units, loads and electricity price are studied. Further, the effect of energy storage systems will be considered, and an optimal operation strategy for energy storage devices in a large scale wind power system in the electricity market is proposed. The western Danish power system, which has large...... strategy for trading wind power in the Danish short-term electricity market in order to minimize the imbalance costs for regulation. A load optimization method based on spot price for demand side management in Denmark is proposed in order to save the energy costs for 3 types of typical Danish consumers....../discharging strategies on the spot market price and the interaction between the electricity price and the system demand are presented and discussed....

  16. Enhanced Forecasting Approach for Electricity Market Prices and Wind Power Data Series in the Short-Term

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo J. Osório

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty and variability in electricity market price (EMP signals and players’ behavior, as well as in renewable power generation, especially wind power, pose considerable challenges. Hence, enhancement of forecasting approaches is required for all electricity market players to deal with the non-stationary and stochastic nature of such time series, making it possible to accurately support their decisions in a competitive environment with lower forecasting error and with an acceptable computational time. As previously published methodologies have shown, hybrid approaches are good candidates to overcome most of the previous concerns about time-series forecasting. In this sense, this paper proposes an enhanced hybrid approach composed of an innovative combination of wavelet transform (WT, differential evolutionary particle swarm optimization (DEEPSO, and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS to forecast EMP signals in different electricity markets and wind power in Portugal, in the short-term, considering only historical data. Test results are provided by comparing with other reported studies, demonstrating the proficiency of the proposed hybrid approach in a real environment.

  17. Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Bello

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the most relevant challenges that have arisen in electricity markets during the last few years is the emergence of extremely low prices. Trying to predict these events is crucial for market agents in a competitive environment. This paper proposes a novel methodology to simultaneously accomplish punctual and probabilistic hourly predictions about the appearance of extremely low electricity prices in a medium-term scope. The proposed approach for making real ex ante forecasts consists of a nested compounding of different forecasting techniques, which incorporate Monte Carlo simulation, combined with spatial interpolation techniques. The procedure is based on the statistical identification of the process key drivers. Logistic regression for rare events, decision trees, multilayer perceptrons and a hybrid approach, which combines a market equilibrium model with logistic regression, are used. Moreover, this paper assesses whether periodic models in which parameters switch according to the day of the week can be even more accurate. The proposed techniques are compared to a Markov regime switching model and several naive methods. The proposed methodology empirically demonstrates its effectiveness by achieving promising results on a real case study based on the Spanish electricity market. This approach can provide valuable information for market agents when they face decision making and risk-management processes. Our findings support the additional benefit of using a hybrid approach for deriving more accurate predictions.

  18. Designing the input vector to ANN-based models for short-term load forecast in electricity distribution systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, P.J.; Martins, A.G.; Pires, A.J.

    2007-01-01

    The present trend to electricity market restructuring increases the need for reliable short-term load forecast (STLF) algorithms, in order to assist electric utilities in activities such as planning, operating and controlling electric energy systems. Methodologies such as artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely used in the next hour load forecast horizon with satisfactory results. However, this type of approach has had some shortcomings. Usually, the input vector (IV) is defined in a arbitrary way, mainly based on experience, on engineering judgment criteria and on concern about the ANN dimension, always taking into consideration the apparent correlations within the available endogenous and exogenous data. In this paper, a proposal is made of an approach to define the IV composition, with the main focus on reducing the influence of trial-and-error and common sense judgments, which usually are not based on sufficient evidence of comparative advantages over previous alternatives. The proposal includes the assessment of the strictly necessary instances of the endogenous variable, both from the point of view of the contiguous values prior to the forecast to be made, and of the past values representing the trend of consumption at homologous time intervals of the past. It also assesses the influence of exogenous variables, again limiting their presence at the IV to the indispensable minimum. A comparison is made with two alternative IV structures previously proposed in the literature, also applied to the distribution sector. The paper is supported by a real case study at the distribution sector. (author)

  19. Designing the input vector to ANN-based models for short-term load forecast in electricity distribution systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, P.J. [LabSEI-ESTSetubal-Department of Electrical Engineering at Escola Superior de Tecnologia, Polytechnic Institute of Setubal Rua Vale de Chaves Estefanilha, 2910-761 Setubal (Portugal); Martins, A.G. [Department of Electrical Engineering, FCTUC/INESC, Polo 2 University of Coimbra, Pinhal de Marrocos, 3030 Coimbra (Portugal); Pires, A.J. [LabSEI-ESTSetubal-Department of Electrical Engineering at Escola Superior de Tecnologia, Polytechnic Institute of Setubal Rua Vale de, Chaves Estefanilha, 2910-761 Setubal (Portugal)

    2007-05-15

    The present trend to electricity market restructuring increases the need for reliable short-term load forecast (STLF) algorithms, in order to assist electric utilities in activities such as planning, operating and controlling electric energy systems. Methodologies such as artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely used in the next hour load forecast horizon with satisfactory results. However, this type of approach has had some shortcomings. Usually, the input vector (IV) is defined in a arbitrary way, mainly based on experience, on engineering judgment criteria and on concern about the ANN dimension, always taking into consideration the apparent correlations within the available endogenous and exogenous data. In this paper, a proposal is made of an approach to define the IV composition, with the main focus on reducing the influence of trial-and-error and common sense judgments, which usually are not based on sufficient evidence of comparative advantages over previous alternatives. The proposal includes the assessment of the strictly necessary instances of the endogenous variable, both from the point of view of the contiguous values prior to the forecast to be made, and of the past values representing the trend of consumption at homologous time intervals of the past. It also assesses the influence of exogenous variables, again limiting their presence at the IV to the indispensable minimum. A comparison is made with two alternative IV structures previously proposed in the literature, also applied to the distribution sector. The paper is supported by a real case study at the distribution sector. (author)

  20. Short term optimization of electric power plants production including pumped storage and nuclear modulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fourez, M.; Jussiant, C.; Roubens, M.; Trecat, J.

    1987-01-01

    Short term optimization, including start-up costs, pumped storage, constraints on shut-off time and run-time is a classical problem solved by dynamic programming. However when minimum base production is covered only by nuclear plants and is greater then minimum load demand, some sort of optimal modulation of these plants must be taken into account. The program developed deals with this constraint in a quasi-optimal way, and allows also energy exchanges based on short term contracts. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm has been verified at the Belgian utility where this program was developed

  1. A three-stage short-term electric power planning procedure for a generation company in a liberalized market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nabona, Narcis; Pages, Adela

    2007-01-01

    In liberalized electricity markets, generation companies bid their hourly generation in order to maximize their profit. The optimization of the generation bids over a short-term weekly period must take into account the action of the competing generation companies and the market-price formation rules and must be coordinated with long-term planning results. This paper presents a three stage optimization process with a data analysis and parameter calculation, a linearized unit commitment, and a nonlinear generation scheduling refinement. Although the procedure has been developed from the experience with the Spanish power market, with minor adaptations it is also applicable to any generation company participating in a competitive market system. (author)

  2. An enhanced radial basis function network for short-term electricity price forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Whei-Min; Gow, Hong-Jey; Tsai, Ming-Tang

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposed a price forecasting system for electric market participants to reduce the risk of price volatility. Combining the Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) and Orthogonal Experimental Design (OED), an Enhanced Radial Basis Function Network (ERBFN) has been proposed for the solving process. The Locational Marginal Price (LMP), system load, transmission flow and temperature of the PJM system were collected and the data clusters were embedded in the Excel Database according to the year, season, workday and weekend. With the OED applied to learning rates in the ERBFN, the forecasting error can be reduced during the training process to improve both accuracy and reliability. This would mean that even the ''spikes'' could be tracked closely. The Back-propagation Neural Network (BPN), Probability Neural Network (PNN), other algorithms, and the proposed ERBFN were all developed and compared to check the performance. Simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed ERBFN to provide quality information in a price volatile environment. (author)

  3. A potention of renewable energy sources in Slovakia in term of production of electricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Štefan Kuzevič

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Electro-energetics of Slovak Republic is in this time in state of re-structuralization consequent from responsibilities which SR has with integration to the EU and on the other hand with actual status of production capacities of fossil fuels using in heat power stations and heat stations also the utilization of nuclear energy in nuclear power stations Jaslovské Bohunice and Mochovce. Paradoxically slim representation in production capacities have renewable energy sources, while only one relevant one is utilization of water in small hydro power stations. According to fact, that to the year 2010, the share of renewable sources of energy using in comparing with electric energy has to achieve 21,7% (direction of EU 77/2001. It is necessary to evaluate possibilities of utilization and to specify potential of utilization from technical and economical aspect.

  4. Auroral Substorms: Search for Processes Causing the Expansion Phase in Terms of the Electric Current Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akasofu, Syun-Ichi

    2017-10-01

    Auroral substorms are mostly manifestations of dissipative processes of electromagnetic energy. Thus, we consider a sequence of processes consisting of the power supply (dynamo), transmission (currents/circuits) and dissipations (auroral substorms-the end product), namely the electric current line approach. This work confirms quantitatively that after accumulating magnetic energy during the growth phase, the magnetosphere unloads the stored magnetic energy impulsively in order to stabilize itself. This work is based on our result that substorms are caused by two current systems, the directly driven (DD) current system and the unloading system (UL). The most crucial finding in this work is the identification of the UL (unloading) current system which is responsible for the expansion phase. A very tentative sequence of the processes leading to the expansion phase (the generation of the UL current system) is suggested for future discussions. (1) The solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo enhances significantly the plasma sheet current when its power is increased above 10^{18} erg/s (10^{11} w). (2) The magnetosphere accumulates magnetic energy during the growth phase, because the ionosphere cannot dissipate the increasing power because of a low conductivity. As a result, the magnetosphere is inflated, accumulating magnetic energy. (3) When the power reaches 3-5× 10^{18} erg/s (3-5× 10^{11} w) for about one hour and the stored magnetic energy reaches 3-5×10^{22} ergs (10^{15} J), the magnetosphere begins to develop perturbations caused by current instabilities (the current density {≈}3× 10^{-12} A/cm2 and the total current {≈}106 A at 6 Re). As a result, the plasma sheet current is reduced. (4) The magnetosphere is thus deflated. The current reduction causes partial B/partial t > 0 in the main body of the magnetosphere, producing an earthward electric field. As it is transmitted to the ionosphere, it becomes equatorward-directed electric field which drives both

  5. Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama's electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McPherson, Madeleine; Karney, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail. - Highlights: • This paper models Panama's electricity sector using the LEAP model platform. • Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. • Impact analysis includes: system cost, global warming potential, resource diversity index. • Panama can achieve a sustainable grid with existing technologies and costs. • There is an tradeoff between the resource diversity and global warming potential

  6. Extracting the Weather Response from Long-Term Hourly Electricity Load Data in an Eastern Region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Bielicki, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding climate change impacts on the energy sector requires understanding how electricity consumption responds to weather conditions, such as temperature. This study applied a state-space model to 22 years (1993-2014) of publicly available hourly load data from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) Interconnection. Prior to our analysis, we removed long-term trends which are usually considered to be related to socio-economic and demographic factors, in the various sub-regions of the PJM interconnection to focus on the response to weather. The state-space models were comprised of weekly cycle, autoregressive-moving average components, and regressions on temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed variables. A separate model was fitted for each hour of the day. We found that the best relationship between temperature and electricity load may occur with a lag depending on the time of the day. The base temperature giving optimal mean squared residual magnitude was found to be lower than the 65 oF (18.3 oC) value traditionally used for cooling- and heating-degree days calculations. Relative humidity, wind speed, and sometimes a past temperature-variability term also increased the predicative power of the model. A few outliers existed in the hourly load dataset, which were not predicted well by the model, but the other residuals of the models were <=5% of the observed values. Removal of the outliers did not significantly impact the estimated model structure or parameters.

  7. Long-term dynamics of investment decisions in electricity markets with variable renewables development and adequacy objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petitet, Marie

    2016-01-01

    In liberalised electricity systems, power markets are expected to ensure the long-term coordination of investments in order to guarantee security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness. In the reference energy-only market, it relies on the ability of power markets - where the hourly price is aligned with the marginal cost of the system - to provide an adequate price-signal for investors. However, in practice, questions have been raised about its ability to trigger investments in Low-Carbon Technologies (LCT) including in particular Renewable Energy Sources of Electricity (RES-E), and its ability to ensure capacity adequacy. After a characterisation of these market failures, this dissertation tackles the two research topics within a methodological framework based on a System Dynamics model developed to simulate private investment decisions in power markets. First, the results show that substituting out-of-market support mechanisms for RES-E by market-based investments helped by the sole implementation of a carbon price appears as a feasible solution to trigger RES-E development providing that there is a political commitment on a high carbon price. Second, it also appears that the energy-only market with price cap is ineffective to ensure capacity adequacy in a context of mature markets with conventional thermal power plants under transition paths which involve a stable electricity demand thank to energy efficiency efforts and the exogenous development of RES-E thanks to support mechanisms in the absence of a high and fixed carbon price. Adding a capacity market or removing the price cap both bring benefits in terms of Loss Of Load Expectation (LOLE) and social welfare. Moreover, considering two various energy transition scenarios and different assumptions about the risk aversion of private investors, the capacity market is identified as the best option for regulators among the considered market designs. (author) [fr

  8. Fulfilling the electricity demand of electric vehicles in the long term future: An evaluation of centralized and decentralized power supply systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, A.S.; Kuramochi, T.; van den Broek, M.A.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2013-01-01

    Electric vehicles (EVs) are currently seen as an option for a more sustainable transportation sector, but it is not yet clear how to supply them with electricity whilst striving for low costs and low CO2 emissions. Renewable sources can supply electricity with low emissions, but their penetration

  9. A modified low-temperature wafer bonding method using spot pressing bonding technique and water glass adhesive layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yang; Wang, Shengkai; Wang, Yinghui; Chen, Dapeng

    2018-02-01

    A modified low-temperature wafer bonding method using a spot pressing bonding technique and a water glass adhesive layer is proposed. The electrical properties of the water glass layer has been studied by capacitance–voltage (C–V) and electric current–voltage (I–V) measurements. It is found that the adhesive layer can be regarded as a good insulator in terms of leakage current density. The bonding mechanism and the motion of bubbles during the thermal treatment are investigated. The dominant factor for the bubble motion in the modified bonding process is the gradient of pressure introduced by the spot pressing force. It is proved that the modified method achieves low-temperature adhesive bonding, minimizes the effect of water desorption, and provides good bonding performance.

  10. Volume dips; spot price ranges narrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the September 1994 uranium market summary. Volume in the spot concentrates market fell below 1 million lbs U3O8. In total, twelve deals took place compared to 28 deals in August. Of the twelve deals, three took place in the spot concentrates market, two took place in the medium and long-term market, three in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. Restricted prices weakened, but unrestricted prices firmed slightly. The enrichment price range narrowed a bit

  11. Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Hang T.; Nabney, Ian T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their NMSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively. (author)

  12. Onset of breakdown and formation of cathode spots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwirzke, F.; Hallal, M.P. Jr.; Maruyama, X.K.

    1992-01-01

    The initial phase of onset of electrical breakdown in a vacuum discharge is characterized by very rapid ionization of surface material which leads to a kind of ''explosive'' plasma formation on electrodes. As an increasing electric field is applied between the two electrodes of vacuum diode the ionization process is initiated by field emission of electrons from highly localized spots on the cathode surface. Despite the fundamental importance of cathode spots for the breakdown process, the structure of cathode spots and the fast ionization rates of surface layers were riot fully understood. Besides joule heating of the field emitting spot, the electrons also desorb contaminants and ionize some of the released neutrals. Ions produced a short distance (∼ 1μm) from the spot are accelerated back towards the cathode. This ion bombardment leads to surface heating of the spot. Calculations of the power deposition show that ion surface heating is initially orders of magnitude larger than joule heating. Ion bombardment is especially important at low initial current densities since it leads efficiently to further desorption arid sputtering of neutrals from the surface and hence increases the neutral density which in turn increases the ionization rate. As more ions are produced, a positive space charge layer forms which enhances the electric field and thus strongly enhances the field emitted electron current. Surface heating and the build-up of positive space charge rapidly lead to further enhanced field emission and finally thermionic electron emission. The localized build-up plasma above the electron emitting spot naturally leads to pressure and electric field distributions which ignite unipolar arcs. The large electron current of the unipolar arc and large ion sputtering rates cause the ''explosion'' of surface material into the dense plasma of a cathode spot

  13. Short-term memory and electrical restitution in the canine transmural ventricle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Hong; Ueyama, Takeshi; Lin, Shien-Fong; Wang, Juan; Wu, Rui-Juan

    2011-01-01

    Cardiac short-term memory is an intrinsic property of paced myocardium that reflects the influence of pacing history. Using an optical mapping method to record membrane voltage and intracellular calcium (Ca 2+ i ), this study investigated the properties and mechanisms of short-term memory in isolated and perfused canine wedge preparations. In addition to the dynamic and S1S2 pacing protocols, a perturbed downsweep pacing protocol was used to get a complete overview of the restitution portrait. Abrupt changes in basic cycle length (BCL) were applied to investigate the accommodation process of action potential duration (APD). The results showed unobvious differences of memory among the epi-, mid- and endo-myocytes, implying an insignificant memory-induced transient heterogeneity in APD across the transmural canine hearts. With the decrease of pacing rate S1, memory gradually elevated and achieved a maximum around 400 ms, and then reduced as S1 decreased further, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between memory and the pacing rate. After suppressing the Ca 2+ i transient with ryanodine (3 µmol l −1 ), the accommodation process of APD to a new BCL significantly abbreviated (τ = 37.41 ± 4.42 stimuli before ryanodine, τ = 15.84 ± 4.74 stimuli after ryanodine, p < 0.01). Therefore, Ca 2+ i cycling was suggested to play an important role in memory during dynamic pacing

  14. Chocolate spot of Eucalyptus

    OpenAIRE

    Cheewangkoon, R.; Groenewald, J.Z.; Hyde, K.D.; To-anun, C.; Crous, P.W.

    2012-01-01

    Chocolate Spot leaf disease of Eucalyptus is associated with several Heteroconium-like species of hyphomycetes that resemble Heteroconium s.str. in morphology. They differ, however, in their ecology, with the former being plant pathogenic, while Heteroconium s.str. is a genus of sooty moulds. Results of molecular analyses, inferred from DNA sequences of the large subunit (LSU) and internal transcribed spacers (ITS) region of nrDNA, delineated four Heteroconium-like species on Eucalyptus, name...

  15. El spot electoral negativo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palma Peña-Jiménez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available l spot político tiene durante la campaña un objetivo final inequívoco: la consecución del voto favorable. Se dirige al cuerpo electoral a través de la televisión y de Internet, y presenta, en muchos casos, un planteamiento negativo, albergando mensajes destinados a la crítica frontal contra el adversario, más que a la exposición de propuestas propias. Este artículo se centra en el análisis del spot electoral negativo, en aquellas producciones audiovisuales construidas sin más causa que la reprobación del contrincante. Se trata de vídeos que, lejos de emplearse en difundir las potencialidades de la organización y las virtudes de su candidato –además de su programa electoral–, consumen su tiempo en descalificar al oponente mediante la transmisión de mensajes, muchas veces, ad hominem. Repasamos el planteamiento negativo del spot electoral desde su primera manifestación, que en España data de 1996, año de emisión del conocido como vídeo del dóberman, sin olvidar otros ejemplos que completan el objeto de estudio.

  16. Artificial intelligence in short term electric load forecasting: a state-of-the-art survey for the researcher

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Metaxiotis, K.; Kagiannas, A.; Askounis, D.; Psarras, J. [National Technical University of Athens, Zografou (Turkey). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering

    2003-06-01

    Intelligent solutions, based on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, to solve complicated practical problems in various sectors are becoming more and more widespread nowadays. AI-based systems are being developed and deployed worldwide in myriad applications, mainly because of their symbolic reasoning, flexibility and explanation capabilities. This paper provides an overview for the researcher of AI technologies, as well as their current use in the field of short term electric load forecasting (STELF). The history of AI in STELF is outlined, leading to a discussion of the various approaches as well as the current research directions. The paper concludes by sharing thoughts and estimations on AI future prospects in this area. This review reveals that although still regarded as a novel methodology, AI technologies are shown to have matured to the point of offering real practical benefits in many of their applications. (Author)

  17. Distributional modeling and short-term forecasting of electricity prices by Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serinaldi, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    In the context of the liberalized and deregulated electricity markets, price forecasting has become increasingly important for energy company's plans and market strategies. Within the class of the time series models that are used to perform price forecasting, the subclasses of methods based on stochastic time series and causal models commonly provide point forecasts, whereas the corresponding uncertainty is quantified by approximate or simulation-based confidence intervals. Aiming to improve the uncertainty assessment, this study introduces the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to model the dynamically varying distribution of prices. The GAMLSS allow fitting a variety of distributions whose parameters change according to covariates via a number of linear and nonlinear relationships. In this way, price periodicities, trends and abrupt changes characterizing both the position parameter (linked to the expected value of prices), and the scale and shape parameters (related to price volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) can be explicitly incorporated in the model setup. Relying on the past behavior of the prices and exogenous variables, the GAMLSS enable the short-term (one-day ahead) forecast of the entire distribution of prices. The approach was tested on two datasets from the widely studied California Power Exchange (CalPX) market, and the less mature Italian Power Exchange (IPEX). CalPX data allow comparing the GAMLSS forecasting performance with published results obtained by different models. The study points out that the GAMLSS framework can be a flexible alternative to several linear and nonlinear stochastic models. - Research Highlights: ► Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) are used to model electricity prices' time series. ► GAMLSS provide the entire dynamicaly varying distribution function of prices resorting to a suitable set of covariates that drive the instantaneous values of the parameters

  18. Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbord, David William Cameron

    This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

  19. Ultrastructural features of supraspinal muscles in rabbits after long-term transcutaneous lateral electrical surface stimulation (LESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariusz Majewski

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Lateral electrical surface stimulation is one of methods used in the therapy of the progressive form of idiopathic scoliosis (IS in children and youth. However, there are data suggesting that this method may lead to serious adverse side effects, when used for a too long period of time per day. To clarify this issue, the present study was aimed at disclosing possible changes in the ultrastructural appearance of rabbit supraspinal muscles undergoing long-term stimulation (9 h per day, 3 months, an animal model successfully used to mimic the situation in humans. In comparison to the control animals, muscles of "overstimulated" rabbits exhibited clear signs of microscopical lesions, including depletion and disintegration of myofilaments, proliferation, dilatation and, sometimes, swelling of sarcoplasmic reticulum and/or mitochondria, as well as signs of destruction of the Z line. The above-mentioned abnormalities, especially the signs of degenerative processes associated with the Z line and the observed microlesions strongly suggest that the failure of the long-term LESS therapy of the IS may be attributable to these ultrastructural lesions.

  20. An efficient method of spot welding Aluminium alloys with induction preheating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jawad Saleem

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Steel has been the material of choice for automobile manufacturers. In the recent years material such as aluminium and its alloys are taking over the market because of their light weight. The use of aluminium, in automobile manufacturing can result in overall fuel efficiency. Spot welding aluminium alloys require higher electric power and less welding time as compared to steel. Welding guns that can produce an electric current which is approximately 2 to 3 times higher, as compared to steel are required for spot welding aluminium. An efficient method of spot welding Aluminium alloys with the preheating process has been proposed in this paper. Preheating Aluminium sheet before spot welding reduces the thermal and electrical resistance which brings down the electric current requirement to spot weld Aluminium structures. Both spot welding and induction preheating process have been modelled in this paper. The test results of the preheating process have also been verified with practical heating trials. The preheating is performed on-the-fly in advance to spot welding process. The results show that spot welding Al 6082 after preheating up to 200 oC, the output current requirements to make the spot weld are reduced by 22%.

  1. The Spotting Distribution of Wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Martin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In wildfire science, spotting refers to non-local creation of new fires, due to downwind ignition of brands launched from a primary fire. Spotting is often mentioned as being one of the most difficult problems for wildfire management, because of its unpredictable nature. Since spotting is a stochastic process, it makes sense to talk about a probability distribution for spotting, which we call the spotting distribution. Given a location ahead of the fire front, we would like to know how likely is it to observe a spot fire at that location in the next few minutes. The aim of this paper is to introduce a detailed procedure to find the spotting distribution. Most prior modelling has focused on the maximum spotting distance, or on physical subprocesses. We will use mathematical modelling, which is based on detailed physical processes, to derive a spotting distribution. We discuss the use and measurement of this spotting distribution in fire spread, fire management and fire breaching. The appendix of this paper contains a comprehensive review of the relevant underlying physical sub-processes of fire plumes, launching fire brands, wind transport, falling and terminal velocity, combustion during transport, and ignition upon landing.

  2. The kinematic advantage of electric cars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyn, Jan-Peter

    2015-11-01

    Acceleration of a common car with with a turbocharged diesel engine is compared to the same type with an electric motor in terms of kinematics. Starting from a state of rest, the electric car reaches a distant spot earlier than the diesel car, even though the latter has a better specification for engine power and average acceleration from 0 to 100 km h-1. A three phase model of acceleration as a function of time fits the data of the electric car accurately. The first phase is a quadratic growth of acceleration in time. It is shown that the tenfold higher coefficient for the first phase accounts for most of the kinematic advantage of the electric car.

  3. Diseño y construcción de un reloj/termómetro electrónico con visor gigante

    OpenAIRE

    Sánchez Gutiérrez, Jorge Alfredo; Yapur Auad, Miguel Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    El crecimiento de la industria electrónica debido a los sistemas muy pequeños, de bajo costo, relativamente complejos, conocidos como circuitos integrados a muy grande escala, ha permitido que en un solo circuito podamos tener una calculadora o un reloj electrónico que remplaza al tradicional reloj mecánico de resorte o al de péndulo. Los termómetros digitales han remplazado a los tradicionales termómetros de mercurio y vidrio; son mucho más precisos y portátiles y pueden brindar algunas f...

  4. The prerequisites for effective competition in restructured wholesale electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, R.; Auer, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper argues that effective competition in reformed wholesale electricity markets can only be achieved if the following six prerequisites are met: (1) separation of the grid from generation and supply; (2) wholesale price deregulation; (3) sufficient transmission capacity for a competitive market and non-discriminating grid access; (4) excess generation capacity developed by a large number of competing generators; (5) an equilibrium relationship between short-term spot markets and the long-term financial instruments that marketers use to manage spot-market price volatility; (6) an essentially hands-off government policy that encompasses reduced oversight and privatization. The absence of any one of the first five conditions may result in an oligopoly or monopoly market whose economic performance does not meet the efficiency standards of a competently managed regulated electrical utility. (author)

  5. Hillslope characterization in terms of geophysical units based on the joint interpretation of electrical resistivity and seismic velocity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feskova, Tatiana; Dietrich, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological conditions in a catchment depend on many factors such as climatic, geological, geomorphological, biological and human, which interact with each other and influence water balance in a catchment. This interaction leads to the subordination in the landscape structure, namely the weak elements subordinate to the powerful elements. Thereby, geological and geomorphological factors play an essential role in catchment development and organization. A hillslope consequently can be allocated to one class of the representative units because the important flow processes run at the hillslope. Moreover, a hillslope can be subdivided into stratigraphic subsurface units and significant hillslope areas based on the lithological change of contrasting interfaces. The knowledge of subsurface structures is necessary to understand and predicate complex hydrological processes in a catchment. Geophysical techniques provide a good opportunity to explore the subsurface. A complete geophysical investigation of subsurface in a catchment with difficult environmental conditions never will be achieved because of large time effort in the field, equipment logistic, and ambiguity in the data interpretation. The case study demonstrates how a catchment can be investigated using geophysical methods in an effective manner in terms of characterization of representative units with respect to a functional role in the catchment. This case study aims to develop combined resistivity and seismic velocity hillslope subsurface models for the distinction of representative functional units. In order to identify the contrasting interfaces of the hillslope, to localize significant hillslope areas, and to address the ambiguity in the geophysical data interpretation, the case study combined resistivity surveys (vertical electrical soundings and electrical resistivity tomography) with refraction seismic method, and conducted these measurements at one single profile along the hillslope transect and

  6. Analysis of the Syrian long-term energy and electricity demand projection using the end-use methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hainoun, A.; Seif-Eldin, M.K.; Almoustafa, S.

    2006-01-01

    A comprehensive analysis of the possible future long-term development of Syrian energy and electricity demand covering the period 1999-2030 is presented. The analysis was conducted using the IAEA's model MAED, which relies upon the end-use approach. This model has been validated during the last two decades through the successful application in many developing countries, even those having partial market economy and energy subsidy. Starting from the base year, final energy consumption distributed by energy forms and consumption sectors, the future energy and electricity demand has been projected according to three different scenarios reflecting the possible future demographic, socio-economic and technological development of the country. These scenarios are constructed to cover a plausible range, in which future evolution factors affecting energy demand are expected to lie. The first is a high economy scenario (HS) representing the reference case, which is characterized by high gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (average annual about 6%) and moderate improved technologies in the various consumption sectors. The second is an energy efficiency scenario (ES), which is identical to HS in all main parameters except these relating to the efficiency improvement and conservation measures. Here, high technology improvement and more effective conservation measures in all consumption sectors are proposed and the role of solar to substitute fossil energy for heating purposes is considered effectively. The third is a low economy scenario (LS) with low GDP growth rate (average annual about 3.5%) and less technology improvement in the consumption sectors. As a consequence, the improvement in the energy efficiency is low and the influence of conservation measures is less effective. Starting from about 10.5mtoe final energy in the base year, the analysis shows that the projected energy demand will grow annually at average rates of 5%, 4.5% and 3% for the HS, ES and LS

  7. Induction of Long-term Depression-like Plasticity by Pairings of Motor Imagination and Peripheral Electrical Stimulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochumsen, Mads; Signal, Nada; Nedergaard, Rasmus W.; Taylor, Denise; Haavik, Heidi; Niazi, Imran K.

    2015-01-01

    Long-term depression (LTD) and long-term potentiation (LTP)-like plasticity are models of synaptic plasticity which have been associated with memory and learning. The induction of LTD and LTP-like plasticity, using different stimulation protocols, has been proposed as a means of addressing abnormalities in cortical excitability associated with conditions such as focal hand dystonia and stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the excitability of the cortical projections to the tibialis anterior (TA) muscle could be decreased when dorsiflexion of the ankle joint was imagined and paired with peripheral electrical stimulation (ES) of the nerve supplying the antagonist soleus muscle. The effect of stimulus timing was evaluated by comparing paired stimulation timed to reach the cortex before, at and after the onset of imagined movement. Fourteen healthy subjects participated in six experimental sessions held on non-consecutive days. The timing of stimulation delivery was determined offline based on the contingent negative variation (CNV) of electroencephalography brain data obtained during imagined dorsiflexion. Afferent stimulation was provided via a single pulse ES to the peripheral nerve paired, based on the CNV, with motor imagination of ankle dorsiflexion. A significant decrease (P = 0.001) in the excitability of the cortical projection of TA was observed when the afferent volley from the ES of the tibial nerve (TN) reached the cortex at the onset of motor imagination based on the CNV. When TN stimulation was delivered before (P = 0.62), or after (P = 0.23) imagined movement onset there was no significant effect. Nor was a significant effect found when ES of the TN was applied independent of imagined movement (P = 0.45). Therefore, the excitability of the cortical projection to a muscle can be inhibited when ES of the nerve supplying the antagonist muscle is precisely paired with the onset of imagined movement. PMID:26648859

  8. Positive effect of specific low-frequency electrical stimulation during short-term recovery on subsequent high-intensity exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bieuzen, François; Borne, Rachel; Toussaint, Jean-François; Hausswirth, Christophe

    2014-02-01

    The objective of this study was to test how low-frequency electrical stimulation (LFES; Veinoplus Sport (AdRem Technology, Paris, France)) of the calf muscles affects recovery indices compared with 2 other commonly used recovery methods (active, ACT; passive, PAS). The tests used assessed predominantly anaerobic performance after short-term (15 min) recovery, and the kinetics of blood markers. Fourteen highly trained female handball players completed 2 Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery tests (level 2; YYIR2) separated by a 15-min recovery period. During recovery, 1 of 3 recovery methods (ACT, LFES or PAS) was randomly selected. Performance (i.e., distance run) was measured at the end of each YYIR2 test. Blood lactate, pH, bicarbonate concentrations, heart rate, respiratory gas exchange and tissue saturation index for the lateral gastrocnemius were recorded. LFES showed a very likely beneficial effect on performance during the second YYIR2 relative to PAS and a possible beneficial effect relative to ACT (distance Pre vs. Post; LFES: -1.8%; ACT: -7.6%; PAS: -15.9%). Compared with PAS recovery, LFES and ACT recovery clearly showed a faster return to baseline for blood lactate, pH and bicarbonate concentrations during the recovery period. LFES of the calf muscles and, to a lesser extent, ACT recovery appear to effectively improve short-term recovery between 2 bouts of exhausting exercises. These methods could be of benefit if applied during half-time, for sports involving successive rounds, or where only a limited recovery period is available.

  9. New Approaches for Very Short-term Steady-State Analysis of An Electrical Distribution System with Wind Farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Bracale

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Distribution networks are undergoing radical changes due to the high level of penetration of dispersed generation. Dispersed generation systems require particular attention due to their incorporation of uncertain energy sources, such as wind farms, and due to the impacts that such sources have on the planning and operation of distribution networks. In particular, the foreseeable, extensive use of wind turbine generator units in the future requires that distribution system engineers properly account for their impacts on the system. Many new technical considerations must be addressed, including protection coordination, steady-state analysis, and power quality issues. This paper deals with the very short-term, steady-state analysis of a distribution system with wind farms, for which the time horizon of interest ranges from one hour to a few hours ahead. Several wind-forecasting methods are presented in order to obtain reliable input data for the steady-state analysis. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods were considered and used in performing deterministic and probabilistic load-flow analyses. Numerical applications on a 17-bus, medium-voltage, electrical distribution system with various wind farms connected at different busbars are presented and discussed.

  10. Near-term hybrid vehicle program, phase 1. Appendix B: Design trade-off studies. [various hybrid/electric power train configurations and electrical and mechanical drive-line components

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-01-01

    The relative attractiveness of various hybrid/electric power train configurations and electrical and mechanical drive-line components was studied. The initial screening was concerned primarily with total vehicle weight and economic factors and identified the hybrid power train combinations which warranted detailed evaluation over various driving cycles. This was done using a second-by-second vehicle simulation program which permitted the calculations of fuel economy, electricity usage, and emissions as a function of distance traveled in urban and highway driving. Power train arrangement possibilities were examined in terms of their effect on vehicle handling, safety, serviceability, and passenger comfort. A dc electric drive system utilizing a separately excited motor with field control and battery switching was selected for the near term hybrid vehicle. Hybrid vehicle simulations showed that for the first 30 mi (the electric range of the vehicle) in urban driving, the fuel economy was 80 mpg using a gasoline engine and 100 mpg using a diesel engine. In urban driving the hybrid would save about 75% of the fuel used by the conventional vehicle and in combined urban/highway driving the fuel saving is about 50%.

  11. Jumping-droplet electronics hot-spot cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Junho; Birbarah, Patrick; Foulkes, Thomas; Yin, Sabrina L.; Rentauskas, Michelle

    2017-01-01

    Demand for enhanced cooling technologies within various commercial and consumer applications has increased in recent decades due to electronic devices becoming more energy dense. This study demonstrates jumping-droplet based electric-field-enhanced (EFE) condensation as a potential method to achieve active hot spot cooling in electronic devices. To test the viability of EFE condensation, we developed an experimental setup to remove heat via droplet evaporation from single and multiple high power gallium nitride (GaN) transistors acting as local hot spots (4.6 mm x 2.6 mm). An externally powered circuit was developed to direct jumping droplets from a copper oxide (CuO) nanostructured superhydrophobic surface to the transistor hot spots by applying electric fields between the condensing surface and the transistor. Heat transfer measurements were performed in ambient air (22-25°C air temperature, 20-45% relative humidity) to determine the effect of gap spacing (2-4 mm), electric field (50-250 V/cm), and heat flux (demonstrated to 13 W/cm 2 ). EFE condensation was shown to enhance the heat transfer from the local hot spot by ≈ 200% compared to cooling without jumping and by 20% compared to non-EFE jumping. Dynamic switching of the electric field for a two-GaN system reveals the potential for active cooling of mobile hot spots. The opportunity for further cooling enhancement by the removal of non-condensable gases promises hot spot heat dissipation rates approaching 120 W/cm 2 . Finally, this work provides a framework for the development of active jumping droplet based vapor chambers and heat pipes capable of spatial and temporal thermal dissipation control.

  12. Jumping-droplet electronics hot-spot cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Junho; Birbarah, Patrick; Foulkes, Thomas; Yin, Sabrina L.; Rentauskas, Michelle; Neely, Jason; Pilawa-Podgurski, Robert C. N.; Miljkovic, Nenad

    2017-03-01

    Demand for enhanced cooling technologies within various commercial and consumer applications has increased in recent decades due to electronic devices becoming more energy dense. This study demonstrates jumping-droplet based electric-field-enhanced (EFE) condensation as a potential method to achieve active hot spot cooling in electronic devices. To test the viability of EFE condensation, we developed an experimental setup to remove heat via droplet evaporation from single and multiple high power gallium nitride (GaN) transistors acting as local hot spots (4.6 mm × 2.6 mm). An externally powered circuit was developed to direct jumping droplets from a copper oxide (CuO) nanostructured superhydrophobic surface to the transistor hot spots by applying electric fields between the condensing surface and the transistor. Heat transfer measurements were performed in ambient air (22-25 °C air temperature, 20%-45% relative humidity) to determine the effect of gap spacing (2-4 mm), electric field (50-250 V/cm) and applied heat flux (demonstrated to 13 W/cm2). EFE condensation was shown to enhance the heat transfer from the local hot spot by ≈200% compared to cooling without jumping and by 20% compared to non-EFE jumping. Dynamic switching of the electric field for a two-GaN system reveals the potential for active cooling of mobile hot spots. The opportunity for further cooling enhancement by the removal of non-condensable gases promises hot spot heat dissipation rates approaching 120 W/cm2. This work provides a framework for the development of active jumping droplet based vapor chambers and heat pipes capable of spatial and temporal thermal dissipation control.

  13. (Re)Constructions of Etymology of the Term "Electricity" in French German and Modern Greek Textbooks of Physics of 18th-19th Centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patsopoulos, Dimitrios

    2005-01-01

    The different and contrasting versions of the etymology of the term "electricity" in Modern Greek textbooks of Physics of the 18th and 19th century, which are influenced by French and German textbooks, are not mere (re)constructions that serve the didactic purposes and objectives of their authors. They are (in)directly related to the social and…

  14. The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

  15. Advances in spot curing technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burga, R.

    1999-01-01

    A brief review of spot curing technology was presented. The process which a spot of energy of a specific wavelength bandwidth and irradiance is used to cause a coating, encapsulant or adhesive to change from a liquid to a solid state

  16. Medium- and long-term electric power demand forecasting based on the big data of smart city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Zhanmeng; Li, Xiyuan; Li, Xizhong; Hu, Qinghe; Zhang, Haiyang; Cui, Pengjie

    2017-08-01

    Based on the smart city, this paper proposed a new electric power demand forecasting model, which integrates external data such as meteorological information, geographic information, population information, enterprise information and economic information into the big database, and uses an improved algorithm to analyse the electric power demand and provide decision support for decision makers. The data mining technology is used to synthesize kinds of information, and the information of electric power customers is analysed optimally. The scientific forecasting is made based on the trend of electricity demand, and a smart city in north-eastern China is taken as a sample.

  17. Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in the Iran electricity market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigdeli, N.; Afshar, K.; Amjady, N.

    2009-01-01

    Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in Iran electricity market as a market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism has been considered in this paper. The data analysis procedure includes both correlation and predictability analysis of the most important load and price indices. The employed data are the experimental time series from Iran electricity market in its real size and is long enough to make it possible to take properties such as non-stationarity of market into account. For predictability analysis, the bifurcation diagrams and recurrence plots of the data have been investigated. The results of these analyses indicate existence of deterministic chaos in addition to non-stationarity property of the system which implies short-term predictability. In the next step, two artificial neural networks have been developed for forecasting the two price indices in Iran's electricity market. The models' input sets are selected regarding four aspects: the correlation properties of the available data, the critiques of Iran's electricity market, a proper convergence rate in case of sudden variations in the market price behavior, and the omission of cumulative forecasting errors. The simulation results based on experimental data from Iran electricity market are representative of good performance of the developed neural networks in coping with and forecasting of the market behavior, even in the case of severe volatility in the market price indices. (author)

  18. Short-Term Interferential Transabdominal Electrical Stimulation Did Not Change Oral-Rectal Transit Time in Piglets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Andre Y F; Sourial, Magdy; Hutson, John M; Southwell, Bridget R

    2018-03-02

    Transcutaneous electrical stimulation (TES) using interferential current (IFC) is a new therapeutic treatment for constipation. Clinical studies show that TES-IFC for 3-6 months improves colonic transit, but it is not clear if short-term stimulation affects transit or the effect requires longer to develop. The aim of this study was to determine if TES-IFC for only four days affects oral-rectal transit time in healthy pigs. Twenty-two 4-5-week old large white female piglets had transit studies during week 4 and week 5 by placing a capsule containing 18 radiopaque plastic markers in the esophagus under anesthetic followed by x-rays at 6, 30, 54, and 78 hours. Animals were randomly assigned to active or control groups. The active group received TES for 30 min daily for four days. Interferential current was applied through four electrodes (4 × 4 cm), with two para-spinal just below the last rib and two on the belly at the same level. Stimulation was at 4000 Hz and 4080-4160 Hz with currents crossing through the abdominal cavity. Whole bowel transit times ranged from 7.7 to 72.2 hours, stomach transit from transit time from 5 to 53 hours. Transit times were the same for the control (median 28.4 hours) and TES-IFC (23.0 hours) groups in the prestimulation and stimulation weeks (control 23.0, TES-IFC 19.8 hours) with no change within or between groups. Four days of half-hour TES-IFC daily in healthy 5-week-old piglets did not change oral-rectal transit time. © 2018 International Neuromodulation Society.

  19. Electrical optimization of cardiac resynchronization in chronic heart failure is associated with improved clinical long-term outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adlbrecht, Christopher; Hülsmann, Martin; Gwechenberger, Marianne; Graf, Senta; Wiesbauer, Franz; Strunk, Guido; Khazen, Cesar; Brodnjak, Isabella; Neuhold, Stephanie; Binder, Thomas; Maurer, Gerald; Pacher, Richard

    2010-08-01

    Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is an established treatment option for symptomatic chronic heart failure (CHF) patients with pharmacological baseline therapy, but not all patients benefit from device therapy. One reason for this may be inadequate device settings. In real-world practice, echocardiographic evaluation of atrioventricular (AV) delay is not performed in a high proportion of patients, as the effect of electrical optimization of CRT is an issue open for investigation. We performed a retrospective observational study analysing the effect of AV-interval evaluation with echocardiography on long-term [32 (23?43) months] clinical outcome in 205 CHF patients. A stepwise Cox regression model including a co-morbidity score, failed AV-interval evaluation, satisfactory device function after the first implantation attempt, failure to reach 100% of the recommended renin-angiotensin system inhibitor and beta-blocker dose at follow-up and CRT device implantation compared with CRT in combination with an implanted cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) was applied. In the total study cohort, 124 (60.5%) patients had reached the primary combined endpoint death or cardiac hospitalization and 59 (28.8%) had died. Cox regression analysis revealed that failed AV-interval evaluation [HR = 1.72 (1.19-2.49), P = 0.004] non-optimized CHF pharmacotherapy dosages [HR = 2.12 (1.32-3.42), P = 0.002], the presence of a CRT/ICD combination device [HR = 1.87 (1.28-2.71), P = 0.001] and satisfactory device function after the first implantation attempt [HR = 0.44 (0.25-0.77), P = 0.004] were associated with the primary endpoint. Echocardiographic evaluation of the AV-interval in patients with CRT was independently associated with improved clinical outcome, impacting on daily clinical practice of HF patient care.

  20. Fast detection and data compensation for electrodes disconnection in long-term monitoring of dynamic brain electrical impedance tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ge; Dai, Meng; Yang, Lin; Li, Weichen; Li, Haoting; Xu, Canhua; Shi, Xuetao; Dong, Xiuzhen; Fu, Feng

    2017-01-07

    Electrode disconnection is a common occurrence during long-term monitoring of brain electrical impedance tomography (EIT) in clinical settings. The data acquisition system suffers remarkable data loss which results in image reconstruction failure. The aim of this study was to: (1) detect disconnected electrodes and (2) account for invalid data. Weighted correlation coefficient for each electrode was calculated based on the measurement differences between well-connected and disconnected electrodes. Disconnected electrodes were identified by filtering out abnormal coefficients with discrete wavelet transforms. Further, previously valid measurements were utilized to establish grey model. The invalid frames after electrode disconnection were substituted with the data estimated by grey model. The proposed approach was evaluated on resistor phantom and with eight patients in clinical settings. The proposed method was able to detect 1 or 2 disconnected electrodes with an accuracy of 100%; to detect 3 and 4 disconnected electrodes with accuracy of 92 and 84% respectively. The time cost of electrode detection was within 0.018 s. Further, the proposed method was capable to compensate at least 60 subsequent frames of data and restore the normal image reconstruction within 0.4 s and with a mean relative error smaller than 0.01%. In this paper, we proposed a two-step approach to detect multiple disconnected electrodes and to compensate the invalid frames of data after disconnection. Our method is capable of detecting more disconnected electrodes with higher accuracy compared to methods proposed in previous studies. Further, our method provides estimations during the faulty measurement period until the medical staff reconnects the electrodes. This work would improve the clinical practicability of dynamic brain EIT and contribute to its further promotion.

  1. Long-term fish oil supplementation induces cardiac electrical remodeling by changing channel protein expression in the rabbit model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xulin Xu

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Clinical trials and epidemiological studies have suggested that dietary fish oil (FO supplementation can provide an anti-arrhythmic benefit in some patient populations. The underlying mechanisms are not entirely clear. We wanted to understand how FO supplementation (for 4 weeks affected the action potential configuration/duration of ventricular myocytes, and the ionic mechanism(s/molecular basis for these effects. The experiments were conducted on adult rabbits, a widely used animal model for cardiac electrophysiology and pathophysiology. We used gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy to confirm that FO feeding produced a marked increase in the content of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in the phospholipids of rabbit hearts. Left ventricular myocytes were used in current and voltage clamp experiments to monitor action potentials and ionic currents, respectively. Action potentials of myocytes from FO-fed rabbits exhibited much more positive plateau voltages and prolonged durations. These changes could be explained by an increase in the L-type Ca current (I(CaL and a decrease in the transient outward current (I(to in these myocytes. FO feeding did not change the delayed rectifier or inward rectifier current. Immunoblot experiments showed that the FO-feeding induced changes in I(CaL and I(to were associated with corresponding changes in the protein levels of major pore-forming subunits of these channels: increase in Cav1.2 and decrease in Kv4.2 and Kv1.4. There was no change in other channel subunits (Cav1.1, Kv4.3, KChIP2, and ERG1. We conclude that long-term fish oil supplementation can impact on cardiac electrical activity at least partially by changing channel subunit expression in cardiac myocytes.

  2. Glosario de términos utilizados en las licencias de revistas electrónicas Glossary of terms used for electronic journals licenses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana Romanos de Tiratel

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Se presentan dos listados del vocabulario utilizado en la redacción de licencias para acceder a revistas electrónicas: 1 los términos en español con sus equivalencias en inglés seguidas de sus definiciones y 2 los términos en inglés con sus equivalencias en español.Two lists of the vocabulary use for the writing of a license to access electronic journals are presented: 1 terms in both Spanish and English followed by their corresponding definition; 2 terms in English followed by their equivalent terms in Spanish.

  3. Projection of primary energy in electricity generation with evaluation of demand and supply of energy in the medium-term horizon (2020), long-term (2035) and very long term (2060); Projecao das energias primarias na geracao de eletricidade com avaliacao da demanda e oferta de energia, em horizonte de medio prazo (2020), longo prazo (2035) e muito longo prazo (2060)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mafra, Olga Y.; Alvim, Carlos Feu; Eidelman, Frida [Brasil e Economia (Brazil); Guimaraes, Leonam dos Santos [Eletrobras Eletronuclear, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2013-01-15

    The Global Energy demand and the participation of electricity in scenarios of medium (2020), long (2035) and very long (2060) terms are estimated. It is also evaluated the share of different primary energies in electricity generation and their availability in the country. Three economic scenarios were considered and different hypothesis regarding the participation of nuclear energy were analyzed. (author)

  4. Two tests of electric fields, second-order in source-velocity terms of closed, steady currents: (1) an electron beam; (2) a superconducting coil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenyon, C.S.

    1980-01-01

    One particular prediction of Maxwell's theory that has been previously neglected is that the motion of charges traveling in closed loops produces no constant electric fields. This study presents and analyzes the results of two new experiments designed to test for second-order, source-velocity electric fields from steady, closed currents and analyzes another experiment in light of these fields. The first experiment employed an electron beam. The second used a niobium-titanium coil designed so that the voltage measurement configuration could be easily switched from a Faraday to a non-faraday configuration between sets of runs. The implications of the observation of a null charge on magnetically suspended superconducting spheres vis-a-vis the second-order, source-velocity fields were discussed as the third case. The observation of a null potential corresponding to a null effective charge from a hypothetical velocity-squared field in both the beam and the coil experiment placed the upper bound on a field term at 0.02 with respect a Coulomb term. An observed null charge on the suspended spheres reduced this bound to 0.001. Such an upper bound is strong evidence against alternative theories predicting a relative contribution of the order of unity for a simple velocity-squared term. A simple velocity-squared electric field would be indistinguishable from a velocity-squared charge variation. The latter test limits such a charge variation to 0.001 of the total charge. The suspended-spheres test allowed the previously neglected issue of a general second-order, source-velocity electric field to be addressed. The observed null charge in this test contradicts and thus eliminates a hypothesized, general, electric field expression containing three second-order, source-velocity terms

  5. Spot Welding of Honeycomb Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohal, V.

    2017-08-01

    Honeycomb structures are used to prepare meals water jet cutting machines for textile. These honeycomb structures are made of stainless steel sheet thickness of 0.1-0.2 mm. Corrugated sheet metal strips are between two gears with special tooth profile. Hexagonal cells for obtaining these strips are welded points between them. Spot welding device is three electrodes in the upper part, which carries three welding points across the width of the strip of corrugated sheet metal. Spot welding device filled with press and advance mechanisms. The paper presents the values of the regime for spot welding.

  6. Plasma spot welding of ferritic stainless steels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lešnjak, A.

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Plasma spot welding of ferritic stainless steels is studied. The study was focused on welding parameters, plasma and shielding gases and the optimum welding equipment. Plasma-spot welded overlap joints on a 0.8 mm thick ferritic stainless steel sheet were subjected to a visual examination and mechanical testing in terms of tension-shear strength. Several macro specimens were prepared. Plasma spot welding is suitable to use the same gas as shielding gas and as plasma gas, i.e., a 98 % Ar/2 % H 2 gas mixture. Tension-shear strength of plasma-spot welded joints was compared to that of resistance-spot welded joints. It was found that the resistance welded joints withstand a somewhat stronger load than the plasma welded joints due to a larger weld spot diameter of the former. Strength of both types of welded joints is approximately the same.

    El artículo describe el proceso de soldeo de aceros inoxidables ferríticos por puntos con plasma. La investigación se centró en el establecimiento de los parámetros óptimos de la soldadura, la definición del gas de plasma y de protección más adecuado, así como del equipo óptimo para la realización de la soldadura. Las uniones de láminas de aceros inoxidables ferríticos de 0,8 mm de espesor, soldadas a solape por puntos con plasma, se inspeccionaron visualmente y se ensayaron mecánicamente mediante el ensayo de cizalladura por tracción. Se realizaron macro pulidos. Los resultados de la investigación demostraron que la solución más adecuada para el soldeo por puntos con plasma es elegir el mismo gas de plasma que de protección. Es decir, una mezcla de 98 % de argón y 2 % de hidrógeno. La resistencia a la cizalladura por tracción de las uniones soldadas por puntos con plasma fue comparada con la resistencia de las uniones soldadas por resistencia por puntos. Se llegó a la conclusión de que las uniones soldadas por resistencia soportan una carga algo mayor que la uniones

  7. Analysis and validation of laser spot weld-induced distortion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knorovsky, G.A.; Kanouff, M.P.; Maccallum, D.O.; Fuerschbach, P.W.

    1999-12-09

    Laser spot welding is an ideal process for joining small parts with tight tolerances on weld size, location, and distortion, particularly those with near-by heat sensitive features. It is also key to understanding the overlapping laser spot seam welding process. Rather than attempting to simulate the laser beam-to-part coupling (particularly if a keyhole occurs), it was measured by calorimetry. This data was then used to calculate the thermal and structural response of a laser spot welded SS304 disk using the finite element method. Five combinations of process parameter values were studied. Calculations were compared to experimental data for temperature and distortion profiles measured by thermocouples and surface profiling. Results are discussed in terms of experimental and modeling factors. The authors then suggest appropriate parameters for laser spot welding.

  8. Analysis of electricity price in Danish competitive electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. 10 year actual data from the Danish competitive electricity market are collected and analyzed. The relationship among the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price), the consumption and the wind power generation...... in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price and the regulation price generally decrease when the wind power penetration in the power system increases or the consumption of the power system decreases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price and the regulation price for different...... consumption periods and wind power penetration are analyzed. Simulation results show that the findings of this paper are useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal bidding strategy so that the imbalance cost of trading wind power on the electricity market could be reduced....

  9. Auction approaches of long-term contracts to ensure generation investment in electricity markets: Lessons from the Brazilian and Chilean experiences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno, R., E-mail: rmoreno@imperial.ac.u [Imperial College London, Electrical and Electronic Engineering Department, South Kensington Campus (United Kingdom); Barroso, L.A., E-mail: luiz@psr-inc.co [PSR, Praia de Botafogo 228/1701 parte, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Rudnick, H., E-mail: hrudnick@ing.puc.c [Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Electrical Engineering Department (Chile); Mocarquer, S., E-mail: smocarquer@systep.c [Systep, Don Carlos 2939 oficina 1007, Santiago (Chile); Bezerra, B., E-mail: bernardo@psr-inc.co [PSR, Praia de Botafogo 228/1701 parte, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

    2010-10-15

    The implementation of auctions of long-term electricity contracts is arising as an alternative to ensure generation investment and therefore achieve a reliable electricity supply. The aim is to reconcile generation adequacy with efficient energy purchase, correct risk allocation among investors and consumers, and the politico-economic environment of the country. In this paper, a generic proposal for a long-term electricity contracts approach is made, including practical design concepts for implementation. This proposal is empirically derived from the auctions implemented in Brazil and Chile during the last 6 years. The study is focused on practices and lessons which are especially useful for regulators and policy makers that want to facilitate the financing of new desirable power plants in risky environments and also efficiently allocate supply contracts among investors at competitive prices. Although this mechanism is generally seen as a significant improvement in market regulation, there are questions and concerns on auction performance that require careful design and which are identified in this paper. In addition, the experiences and proposal described can serve to derive further mechanisms in order to promote the entrance of particular generation technologies, e.g. renewables, in the developed world and therefore achieve a clean electricity supply.

  10. Auction approaches of long-term contracts to ensure generation investment in electricity markets. Lessons from the Brazilian and Chilean experiences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno, R. [Imperial College London, Electrical and Electronic Engineering Department, South Kensington Campus (United Kingdom); Barroso, L.A.; Bezerra, B. [PSR, Praia de Botafogo 228/1701 parte, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Rudnick, H. [Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Electrical Engineering Department (Chile); Mocarquer, S. [Systep, Don Carlos 2939 oficina 1007, Santiago (Chile)

    2010-10-15

    The implementation of auctions of long-term electricity contracts is arising as an alternative to ensure generation investment and therefore achieve a reliable electricity supply. The aim is to reconcile generation adequacy with efficient energy purchase, correct risk allocation among investors and consumers, and the politico-economic environment of the country. In this paper, a generic proposal for a long-term electricity contracts approach is made, including practical design concepts for implementation. This proposal is empirically derived from the auctions implemented in Brazil and Chile during the last 6 years. The study is focused on practices and lessons which are especially useful for regulators and policy makers that want to facilitate the financing of new desirable power plants in risky environments and also efficiently allocate supply contracts among investors at competitive prices. Although this mechanism is generally seen as a significant improvement in market regulation, there are questions and concerns on auction performance that require careful design and which are identified in this paper. In addition, the experiences and proposal described can serve to derive further mechanisms in order to promote the entrance of particular generation technologies, e.g. renewables, in the developed world and therefore achieve a clean electricity supply. (author)

  11. Auction approaches of long-term contracts to ensure generation investment in electricity markets: Lessons from the Brazilian and Chilean experiences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreno, R.; Barroso, L.A.; Rudnick, H.; Mocarquer, S.; Bezerra, B.

    2010-01-01

    The implementation of auctions of long-term electricity contracts is arising as an alternative to ensure generation investment and therefore achieve a reliable electricity supply. The aim is to reconcile generation adequacy with efficient energy purchase, correct risk allocation among investors and consumers, and the politico-economic environment of the country. In this paper, a generic proposal for a long-term electricity contracts approach is made, including practical design concepts for implementation. This proposal is empirically derived from the auctions implemented in Brazil and Chile during the last 6 years. The study is focused on practices and lessons which are especially useful for regulators and policy makers that want to facilitate the financing of new desirable power plants in risky environments and also efficiently allocate supply contracts among investors at competitive prices. Although this mechanism is generally seen as a significant improvement in market regulation, there are questions and concerns on auction performance that require careful design and which are identified in this paper. In addition, the experiences and proposal described can serve to derive further mechanisms in order to promote the entrance of particular generation technologies, e.g. renewables, in the developed world and therefore achieve a clean electricity supply.

  12. Short-term effects and long-term use of a hybrid orthosis for neuromuscular electrical stimulation of the upper extremity in patients after chronic stroke.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, J.W.; Voerman, G.E.; Santegoets, K.M.; Geurts, A.C.H.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To associate the short-term effects of the Handmaster orthosis on disabling symptoms of the affected upper extremity with long-term Handmaster orthosis use after stroke. DESIGN: Historic cohort study. PATIENTS: Patients with chronic stroke. METHODS: The Modified Ashworth Scale (0-5) for

  13. A Novel Hybrid Model Based on Extreme Learning Machine, k-Nearest Neighbor Regression and Wavelet Denoising Applied to Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weide Li

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Electric load forecasting plays an important role in electricity markets and power systems. Because electric load time series are complicated and nonlinear, it is very difficult to achieve a satisfactory forecasting accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid model, Wavelet Denoising-Extreme Learning Machine optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (EWKM, which combines k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM based on a wavelet denoising technique is proposed for short-term load forecasting. The proposed hybrid model decomposes the time series into a low frequency-associated main signal and some detailed signals associated with high frequencies at first, then uses KNN to determine the independent and dependent variables from the low-frequency signal. Finally, the ELM is used to get the non-linear relationship between these variables to get the final prediction result for the electric load. Compared with three other models, Extreme Learning Machine optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (EKM, Wavelet Denoising-Extreme Learning Machine (WKM and Wavelet Denoising-Back Propagation Neural Network optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (WNNM, the model proposed in this paper can improve the accuracy efficiently. New South Wales is the economic powerhouse of Australia, so we use the proposed model to predict electric demand for that region. The accurate prediction has a significant meaning.

  14. Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sonia Terreros-Olarte

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for short-term forecasting of electric energy production in a photovoltaic (PV plant. The model is called HIstorical SImilar MIning (HISIMI model; its final structure is optimized by using a genetic algorithm, based on data mining techniques applied to historical cases composed by past forecasted values of weather variables, obtained from numerical tools for weather prediction, and by past production of electric power in a PV plant. The HISIMI model is able to supply spot values of power forecasts, and also the uncertainty, or probabilities, associated with those spot values, providing new useful information to users with respect to traditional forecasting models for PV plants. Such probabilities enable analysis and evaluation of risk associated with those spot forecasts, for example, in offers of energy sale for electricity markets. The results of spot forecasting of an illustrative example obtained with the HISIMI model for a real-life grid-connected PV plant, which shows high intra-hour variability of its actual power output, with forecasting horizons covering the following day, have improved those obtained with other two power spot forecasting models, which are a persistence model and an artificial neural network model.

  15. Differentiated long term projections of the hourly electricity consumption in local areas. The case of Denmark West

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Andersen, Frits; Larsen, Helge V.; Juul, Nina

    2014-01-01

    consumption by categories of customers and data for the hourly consumption at each transformer station for the years 2009–2011. Applying the model for load forecasts, a major conclusion is that different transformer stations will experience different changes both in the level - and in the hourly profile......Assessing grid developments the spatial distribution of the electricity consumption is important. In Denmark the electricity grid consists of transmission – and local distribution grids with different voltages that are connected via transformer stations each covering a local area with between 10.......000 and 100.000 customers. Data for the hourly electricity consumption at transformer stations shows that the profile of consumption differs considerably between local areas, and this is partly due to a different weight of categories of customers in the different areas. Categories of customers have quite...

  16. Electricity and Man (Rev.)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asimov, Isaac

    1974-01-01

    Our whole industrial civilization depends upon cheap energy streaking out in all directions and under fingertip controls—and that would be very difficult without electric current. It would take enormous ingenuity to find substitutes. If all electricity were shut off, then all electronic devices would be dead. Electric lights would darken. Aluminum would become a rare metal. All factories would have to develop power sources on the spot and would have to switch to primitive, mechanical controls. Every house and every farm would have to give up items we have come to take for granted—not only electric lights, but electric irons, electric toasters, electric water pumps, electric control of furnaces, and so on.

  17. 9 CFR 149.4 - Spot audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot audit. 149.4 Section 149.4... LIVESTOCK IMPROVEMENT VOLUNTARY TRICHINAE CERTIFICATION PROGRAM § 149.4 Spot audit. (a) In addition to regularly scheduled site audits, certified production sites will be subject to spot audits. (1) Random spot...

  18. On the origin of delta spots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, F.

    1983-01-01

    Mount Wilson sunspot drawings from 1966 through 1980 were used in conjunction with Hα filtergrams from Big Bear Solar Observatory to examine the origin of delta spots, spots with bipolar umbrae within one penumbra. Of the six cases we studied, five were formed by the union of non-paired spots. They are either shoved into one another by two neighboring growing bipoles or by a new spot born piggy-back style on an existing spot of opposite polarity. Proper motions of the growing spots take on curvilinear paths around one another to avoid a collision. This is the shear motion observed in delta spots (Tanaka, 1979). In the remaining case, the delta spot was formed by spots that emerged as a pair. Our findings indicate no intrinsic differences in the formation or the behavior between delta spots of normal magnetic configuration. (orig.)

  19. On-road magnetic emissions prediction of electric cars in terms of driving dynamics using neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wefky, Ahmed M.; Espinosa, Felipe; Leferink, Frank Bernardus Johannes; Gardel, Alfredo; Vogt-Ardatjew, R.A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a novel artificial neural network (ANN) model estimating vehicle-level radiated magnetic emissions of an electric car as a function of the corresponding driving pattern. Real world electromagnetic interference (EMI) experiments have been realized in a semi-anechoic chamber using

  20. Electrical and chemical signals involved in short-term systemic photosynthetic responses of tobacco plants to local burning

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlaváčková, V.; Krchňák, P.; Nauš, J.; Novák, Ondřej; Špundová, M.; Strnad, Miroslav

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 225, č. 1 (2006), s. 235-244 ISSN 0032-0935 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/05/0894 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50380511 Keywords : Abscisic acid * Electrical signals * Gas exchange Subject RIV: CE - Biochemistry Impact factor: 2.963, year: 2006

  1. Forecasting electricity market pricing using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pao, Hsiao-Tien

    2007-01-01

    Electricity price forecasting is extremely important for all market players, in particular for generating companies: in the short term, they must set up bids for the spot market; in the medium term, they have to define contract policies; and in the long term, they must define their expansion plans. For forecasting long-term electricity market pricing, in order to avoid excessive round-off and prediction errors, this paper proposes a new artificial neural network (ANN) with single output node structure by using direct forecasting approach. The potentials of ANNs are investigated by employing a rolling cross validation scheme. Out of sample performance evaluated with three criteria across five forecasting horizons shows that the proposed ANNs are a more robust multi-step ahead forecasting method than autoregressive error models. Moreover, ANN predictions are quite accurate even when the length of the forecast horizon is relatively short or long

  2. Spot market activity remains weak as prices continue to fall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in November 1996 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers. Spot market activity increased in November with just over 1.0 million lbs of U3O8 equivalent being transacted compared to October's total of 530,000 lbs of U3O8 equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range slipped from $15.50-$15.70/lb U3O8 last month to $14.85/lb - $15.25/lb U3O8 this month. The unrestricted uranium spot market price range also slipped to $14.85/lb - $15.00/lb this month from $15.00/lb - $15.45/lb in October. Spot prices for conversion and separative work units remained at their October levels

  3. Cognitive sophistication does not attenuate the bias blind spot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Richard F; Meserve, Russell J; Stanovich, Keith E

    2012-09-01

    The so-called bias blind spot arises when people report that thinking biases are more prevalent in others than in themselves. Bias turns out to be relatively easy to recognize in the behaviors of others, but often difficult to detect in one's own judgments. Most previous research on the bias blind spot has focused on bias in the social domain. In 2 studies, we found replicable bias blind spots with respect to many of the classic cognitive biases studied in the heuristics and biases literature (e.g., Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). Further, we found that none of these bias blind spots were attenuated by measures of cognitive sophistication such as cognitive ability or thinking dispositions related to bias. If anything, a larger bias blind spot was associated with higher cognitive ability. Additional analyses indicated that being free of the bias blind spot does not help a person avoid the actual classic cognitive biases. We discuss these findings in terms of a generic dual-process theory of cognition.

  4. A Suprachoroidal Electrical Retinal Stimulator Design for Long-Term Animal Experiments and In Vivo Assessment of Its Feasibility and Biocompatibility in Rabbits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Zhou

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article reports on a retinal stimulation system for long-term use in animal electrical stimulation experiments. The presented system consisted of an implantable stimulator which provided continuous electrical stimulation, and an external component which provided preset stimulation patterns and power to the implanted stimulator via a paired radio frequency (RF coil. A rechargeable internal battery and a parameter memory component were introduced to the implanted retinal stimulator. As a result, the external component was not necessary during the stimulation mode. The inductive coil pair was used to pass the parameter data and to recharge the battery. A switch circuit was used to separate the stimulation mode from the battery recharging mode. The implantable stimulator was implemented with IC chips and the electronics, except for the stimulation electrodes, were hermetically packaged in a biocompatible metal case. A polyimide-based gold electrode array was used. Surgical implantation into rabbits was performed to verify the functionality and safety of this newly designed system. The electrodes were implanted in the suprachoroidal space. Evoked cortical potentials were recorded during electrical stimulation of the retina. Long-term follow-up using OCT showed no chorioretinal abnormality after implantation of the electrodes.

  5. New maintenance strategy of Tokyo Electric Power Company and Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant for effective ageing management and safe long-term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inagaki, Takeyuki; Yamashita, Norimichi

    2009-01-01

    Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant is the oldest among three nuclear power plants owned and operated by Tokyo Electric Power Company, which consists of six boiling water reactor units. The commercial operation of Unit 1 was commenced in 1971 (37 years old) and Unit 6 in 1978 (29 years old). Currently ageing degradations of systems, structures and components are managed through maintenance programs, component replacement/refurbishment programs and long-term maintenance plans. The long-term maintenance plans are established through ageing management component replacement/refurbishment programs reviews performed before the 30th year of operation and they are for safe and reliable operation after 30 years (long-term operation). However the past maintenance actions and past component replacement/refurbishment programs were not always proactive and past operational experience and maintenance practices suggest that effective/proactive ageing management programs be introduced in earlier stage of the plant operation. In this circumstance, Tokyo Electric Power Company and Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant are setting up a new maintenance strategy that includes 1) improving the normal maintenance programs by using ageing degradation data, 2) effective use of information on internal/external operational experience and maintenance practices related to ageing, and 3) proactive component/equipment refurbishment programs during a refreshment outage for safe and reliable long-term operation. To accomplish the goal of this strategy, strengthening engineering capability of plant staff members is a crucial required for the plant. The objective of this paper is to briefly explain main results ageing management reviews, past and current significant ageing issues and management programs against them, and the new maintenance strategy established by Tokyo Electric Power Company and Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. (author)

  6. Laser based spot weld characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonietz, Florian; Myrach, Philipp; Rethmeier, Michael; Suwala, Hubert; Ziegler, Mathias

    2016-02-01

    Spot welding is one of the most important joining technologies, especially in the automotive industry. Hitherto, the quality of spot welded joints is tested mainly by random destructive tests. A nondestructive testing technique offers the benefit of cost reduction of the testing procedure and optimization of the fabrication process, because every joint could be examined. This would lead to a reduced number of spot welded joints, as redundancies could be avoided. In the procedure described here, the spot welded joint between two zinc-coated steel sheets (HX340LAD+Z100MB or HC340LA+ZE 50/50) is heated optically on one side. Laser radiation and flash light are used as heat sources. The melted zone, the so called "weld nugget" provides the mechanical stability of the connection, but also constitutes a thermal bridge between the sheets. Due to the better thermal contact, the spot welded joint reveals a thermal behavior different from the surrounding material, where the heat transfer between the two sheets is much lower. The difference in the transient thermal behavior is measured with time resolved thermography. Hence, the size of the thermal contact between the two sheets is determined, which is directly correlated to the size of the weld nugget, indicating the quality of the spot weld. The method performs well in transmission with laser radiation and flash light. With laser radiation, it works even in reflection geometry, thus offering the possibility of testing with just one-sided accessibility. By using heating with collimated laser radiation, not only contact-free, but also remote testing is feasible. A further convenience compared to similar thermographic approaches is the applicability on bare steel sheets without any optical coating for emissivity correction. For this purpose, a proper way of emissivity correction was established.

  7. The operation of small cogeneration plants and short-term storage for district heating and public electric power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ilkjær, J; Petersen, P.M.; Qvale, Einar Bjørn

    1989-01-01

    A theoretical investigation of the economics of cogeneration supplemented by warm-water storage and subjected to a three-step price schedule for electricity, has been carried out. Some general guidelines can be derived, but no simple design rules, such as those for cogeneration plants operating...... of cogeneration plant size relative to the total heat demand in the geographical region supplied by the plant are shown...

  8. Short-Term Price Forecasting Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Intraday Sessions in the Iberian Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Monteiro

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents novel intraday session models for price forecasts (ISMPF models for hourly price forecasting in the six intraday sessions of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL and the analysis of mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs obtained with suitable combinations of their input variables in order to find the best ISMPF models. Comparisons of errors from different ISMPF models identified the most important variables for forecasting purposes. Similar analyses were applied to determine the best daily session models for price forecasts (DSMPF models for the day-ahead price forecasting in the daily session of the MIBEL, considering as input variables extensive hourly time series records of recent prices, power demands and power generations in the previous day, forecasts of demand, wind power generation and weather for the day-ahead, and chronological variables. ISMPF models include the input variables of DSMPF models as well as the daily session prices and prices of preceding intraday sessions. The best ISMPF models achieved lower MAPEs for most of the intraday sessions compared to the error of the best DSMPF model; furthermore, such DSMPF error was very close to the lowest limit error for the daily session. The best ISMPF models can be useful for MIBEL agents of the electricity intraday market and the electric energy industry.

  9. Is this Red Spot the Blue Spot (locus ceruleum)?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choe, Won Sick; Lee, Yu Kyung; Lee, Min Kyung; Hwang, Kyung Hoon [Gachon University Gil Hospital, Incheon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-06-15

    The authors report brain images of 18F-FDG-PET in a case of schizophrenia. The images showed strikingly increased bilateral uptake in the locus ceruleum. The locus ceruleum is called the blue spot and known to be a center of the norepinephrinergic system.

  10. The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

    2017-08-01

    The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

  11. SHORT-TERM EXPOSURE OF FRESHWATER ALGAE TO LEAD ORGANIC COMPOUNDS STUDIED WITH NON-INVASIVE ELECTRICAL AND LUMINESCENT METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Borc

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the non-invasive biophysical methods were applied to assess the organic lead compounds absorption by freshwater algae Nitellopsis obtusa. Two biophysical techniques were used: the electrical method AC bridge with four external electrodes and the luminescent with the registration of ultraweak photon radiation emitted by plants. They allow to study the electrical and luminescent cell membrane properties. Research was performed with the lead acetate and trimethyl-lead chloride to verify whether algae cells were able to absorb Pb ions from water medium contaminated by these compounds. When the concentration of lead acetate solution increased up to 25 -100 µM the membrane resting potential changed from -140 mV to -175 mV. On the other hand, the electrical resistance of cell membrane (for 12-50 µM increased with exposure time exceeding its starting value up to 1.5 times. In contrast to these electrical changes, the intensity of ultraweak luminescence was constant at concentrations below 1 µM lead acetate. These results with comparison of literature data can suggest that there was no lipid peroxidation in cell membranes for such organic lead compound concentrations. Chemiluminescent responses of algae were observed in the first 5 hours of experiments for lead concentration higher than 1 µM. The luminescence intensity increased immediately for both reagents, but no more than 4 times for concentrations of 1-10 µM lead acetate. For tetramethyl-lead chloride, the luminescence intensity started to increase slowly about 40 minutes after injection. These results with comparison of literature data may suggest lipid peroxidation in cell membrane for higher, toxic lead concentrations. It means that higher concentrations of lead can trigger lethal processes in the living cells. We conclude that the return of the electrical and chemiluminescent plant parameters to the starting values (before the action of lead ions can indicate whether living

  12. CO2-emission trading and green markets for renewable electricity. WILMAR - deliverable 4.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azuma-Dicke, N.; Weber, C.; Morthorst, P.E.; Ravn, H.F.; Schmidt, R.

    2004-06-01

    This report is Deliverable 4.1 of the EU project 'Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets' (WILMAR) and de-scribes the application of two policy instruments, Tradable Emissions Permits (TEPs) and Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs) for electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the European Union and the implications for implementation in the Wilmar model. The introduction of a common emission-trading system in the EU is expected to have an upward effect on the spot prices at the electric-ity market. The variations of the spot price imply that some types of power generation may change the situation from earning money to losing money despite the increasing spot price. Heavy restrictions on emissions penalise the fossil-fuelled technologies significantly, and the associated increase in the spot price need not compensate for this. Therefore, a market of TEPs is expected to have a significant influence on the electricity spot price. However, the expected price level of TEPs are met with great uncertainty and a study of a number of economical studies shows a price span between zero and 270 USD per ton of CO 2 depending on the participation or non-participation of countries in the scheme. The price-determination at the TGC market is expected to be closely related to the price at the power spot market as the RE-producers of electricity will have expectations to the total price paid for the energy produced, i.e., for the price of electricity at the spot market plus the price per kWh obtained at the green certificate mar-ket. In the Wilmar model, the TGC market can either be handled exogenously, i.e., the increase in renewable capacity and an average annual TGC price are determined outside the model, or a simple TGC module is developed, including the long-term supply functions for the most relevant renewable technologies and an overall TGC quota. Both solutions are rather simple, but to develop a more advanced model for the TGC market seems to be

  13. Natural gas's hottest spot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, T.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reviews the growing power and economic strength of Enron Corp., a natural gas distributor and exploration company. The paper reviews the policy of the company to exploit deregulation at home and privatization of all sorts of energy companies abroad. Enron is actively building its own power plants in the US and has successfully boosted their profits by 20 percent in what was considered a flat natural gas market. The paper goes on to discuss the company's view of the new energy tax and how it should benefit natural gas companies as a whole. Finally the paper reviews the contracting procedures of the company to secure long-term fixed price contracts in a volatile market which precludes most companies from taking the risk

  14. Empirical analysis of the spot market implications of price-responsive demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, A.S.

    2006-01-01

    Although electricity is theoretically an inelastic good in the short term, the steep slope of the supply stack implies that even modest response by demand could translate into reduced capacity requirements and significant price decreases. This article examined the effect of price-responsive demand strategies in an actual deregulated electricity industry. Auction data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead electricity market were used to form supply stacks for various zones. A simple linear demand function was used to determine the effect of price responsiveness on equilibrium spot market price and consumption. The aim was to quantify the benefits from the pricing protocol and to determine whether modest levels of price elasticity can significantly lower prices and consumption. Market-clearing prices and quantities were estimated using various supply curves in order to quantify the responsiveness necessary to achieve given price reductions. Price response was induced in the demand curve by varying its slope. Estimates were then used to estimate the average level of slope needed to reduce the average market-clearing price during the year by a certain percentage. Results showed that an average slope of -50.04 was necessary for prices to be reduced by 25 per cent. Results also showed that necessary price responses can be ascertained for any desired reduction in the market-clearing price or quantity. Although price responsiveness unambiguously reduces the spot market price and quantity, its effect on the forward price is not yet clear. It was concluded that a separate analysis of peak hours may reveal the effectiveness of enhanced price response. 8 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs

  15. Investigating the potential for long-term permeable reactive barrier (PRB) monitoring from the electrical signatures associated with the reduction in reactive iron performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slater, Lee D.; Korte, N.; Baker, J.

    2005-12-14

    The objective of this work was to conduct laboratory and field experiments to determine the sensitivity of low frequency electrical measurements (resistivity and induced polarization) to the processes of corrosion and precipitation that are believed to limit permeable reactive barrier (PRB) performance. The research was divided into four sets of experiments that were each written up and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal: [1] A laboratory experiment to define the controls of aqueous chemistry (electrolyte activity; pH; valence) and total zero valent iron (Fe0) available surface area on the electrical properties of Fe0 columns. [2] A laboratory experiment to determine the impact of corrosion and precipitation on the electrical response of synthetic Fe0 columns as a result of geochemical reactions with NaSO4 and NaCO3 electrolytes. [3] Laboratory experiments on a sequence of cores retrieved from the Kansas City PRB to determine the magnitude of electrical and geochemical changes within a field active PRB after eight years of operation [4] Field-scale cross borehole resistivity and induced polarization monitoring of the Kansas City PRB to evaluate the potential of electrical imaging as a technology for non-invasive, long-term monitoring of indicators of reduced PRB performance This report first summarizes the findings of the four major experiments conducted under this research. The reader is referred to the four papers in Appendices 1-4 for a full description of each experiment, including motivation and significance, technical details, findings and implications. The deliverables of the project, including the publications, conference papers and new collaborative arrangements that have resulted are then described. Appendices 5-6 contain two technical reports written by co-PI Korte describing (1) supporting geochemical measurements, and (2) the coring procedure, conducted at the Kansas City PRB as part of this project.

  16. Future electricity generation: An economic and environmental life cycle perspective on near-, mid- and long-term technology options and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergerson, Joule Andrea

    This thesis evaluates the cost and environmental tradeoffs of current and future electricity generation options from a life cycle perspective. Policy and technology options are considered for each critical time horizon (near-, mid-, and long-term). The framework developed for this analysis is a hybrid life cycle analysis which integrates several models and frameworks including process and input-output life cycle analysis, an integrated environmental control model, social costing, forecasting and future energy scenario analysis. The near-term analysis shows that several recent LCA studies of electricity options have contributed to our understanding of the technologies available and their relative environmental impacts. Several promising options could satisfy our electricity demands. Other options remain unproven or too costly to encourage investment in the near term but show promise for future use (e.g. photovoltaic, fuel cells). Public concerns could impede the use of some desirable technologies (e.g. hydro, nuclear). Finally, less tangible issues such as intermittency of some renewable technologies, social equity and visual and land use impacts, while difficult to quantify, must be considered in the investment decision process. In the mid-term analysis, this thesis explores alternative methods for transport of coal energy. A hybrid life cycle analysis is critical for evaluating the cost, efficiency and environmental tradeoffs of the entire system. If a small amount of additional coal is to be shipped, current rail infrastructure should be used where possible. If entirely new infrastructure is required, the mine mouth generation options are cheaper but have increased environmental impact due to the increased generation required to compensate for transmission line losses. Gasifying the coal to produce methane also shows promise in terms of lowering environmental emissions. The long-term analysis focuses on the implications of a high coal use future. This scenario

  17. Nest reuse by Northern Spotted Owls on the east slope of the Cascade Range, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan G. Sovern; Margaret Taylor; Eric D. Forsman

    2011-01-01

    During a long-term demography study of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in the eastern Cascade Range of Washington State in 1989 to 2008, we documented 276 nests of Northern Spotted Owls at 73 different territories. Of these nests, 90.2% were on platforms, mostly in clumps of deformed limbs caused by dwarf mistletoe (primarily...

  18. Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Ofir David

    precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

  19. Terms of transactions monitoring on the French wholesale electricity and gas markets. Public consultation. Synthesis of contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    In its communication dated 16 April 2008, CRE published its practical methods used to monitor transactions concluded on the French electricity and gas markets. CRE invited any companies to comment on the practical arrangements of such monitoring activities. The monitoring system described by CRE is divided into two steps. In the first step, CRE wants to be able to request any information concerning transactions for physical delivery concluded after 1 January 2007. CRE will make an initial request that will focus on: - for electricity: transactions concluded in 2007 on yearly products for delivery in 2008 and 2009, base-load and peak-load; - for gas: transactions concluded in 2007 on seasonal and yearly products for delivery in 2008 and 2009, base-load and peak-load. The second step, based on feedback received, will see CRE liaise with market players and consider the possibility of setting up systematic procedures to gather transactions data. A final decision will be made by the end of 2008. 17 contributors responded to the public consultation. The remarks made on the practical methods used to gather data can be summarized along the following themes: Preamble: the monitoring principle; Theme 1: scope of transactions monitoring; Theme 2: content and format of requested data; Theme 3: procedures, transmission deadlines and confidentiality issues; Theme 4: stage II of systematic data gathering

  20. Financing investment in the European electricity transmission network: Consequences on long-term sustainability of the TSOs financial structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriot, Arthur

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on the ability of European TSOs to meet the demand for substantial investments in the electricity transmission grid over the next two decades. We employ quantitative analysis to assess the impact of the required capital expenditures under a set of alternative financing strategies. We consider a best-case scenario of full cooperation between the European TSOs. It appears that under current trends in the evolution of transmission tariffs, only half the volumes of investment currently planned could be funded. A highly significant increase in transmission tariffs will be required to ensure the whole-scale investments can be delivered. Finally, alternative strategies can dampen the impact on tariffs but they can only partially substitute for this increase in charges paid by network users. -- Highlights: •We applied balance-sheet modelling to a single European Electricity TSO. •Investments planned will not be achievable under current tariffs evolution. •A three-fold higher growth of transmission network tariffs would be necessary. •New financing strategies can dampen the impact on tariffs, to a minor extent

  1. The long term plan for the integration of nuclear power plants into the Turkish Electrical Power System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kutukcuoglu, A.

    1974-03-01

    The report covers in detail the study of the expansion of the Turkish Electric Power System for the period 1980-1987. Load forecast is done by sectors and regions and inter-regions power balances gave the basis for the high voltage network configurations. Expansion alternatives are defined giving priority to hydroelectric projects, to local resources and nuclear power plants concurrently with conventional plants (lignite and oil). Several reactor strategies are analysed with LWR, HWR, FBR and HTGR power plants. Present worth value method is used for comparison of alternatives and sensitivity analysis is done for those ranked in the first places. Load flow, transient stability and frequency deviation studies of the power system are studied carefully by means of A.C. calculator and digital computer codes in order to see the influence of the introduction of large-sized power plants (600-750MW(e)) and their location in the power system. A 600MW(e) nuclear plant in 1983 and a second one of 750MW(e) in 1987 should, it is found, be commissioned into the system. The economic optimization was done with two computer programmes developed by KFA (Juelich): IACO for fuelling nuclear plant and RESTRAPO for power system with high hydroelectric component. The report is bound in three volumes: Volume I: Summary and Conclusions; Volume II: System Planning; Volume III: Electrical Survey

  2. Experimental Study of Ignition by Hot Spot in Internal Combustion Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serruys, Max

    1938-01-01

    In order to carry out the contemplated study, it was first necessary to provide hot spots in the combustion chamber, which could be measured and whose temperature could be changed. It seemed difficult to realize both conditions working solely on the temperature of the cooling water in a way so as to produce hot spots on the cylinder wall capable of provoking autoignition. Moreover, in the majority of practical cases, autoignition is produced by the spark plug, one of the least cooled parts in the engine. The first procedure therefore did not resemble that which most generally occurs in actual engine operation. All of these considerations caused us to reproduce similar hot spots at the spark plugs. The hot spots produced were of two kinds and designated with the name of thermo-electric spark plug and of metallic hot spot.

  3. The compass rose pattern in electricity prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A; Hamada, Mahmoud

    2009-12-01

    The "compass rose pattern" is known to appear in the phase portraits, or scatter diagrams, of the high-frequency returns of financial series. We first show that this pattern is also present in the returns of spot electricity prices. Early researchers investigating these phenomena hoped that these patterns signaled the presence of rich dynamics, possibly chaotic or fractal in nature. Although there is a definite autoregressive and conditional heteroscedasticity structure in electricity returns, we find that after simple filtering no pattern remains. While the series is non-normal in terms of their distribution and statistical tests fail to identify significant chaos, there is evidence of fractal structures in periodic price returns when measured over the trading day. The phase diagram of the filtered returns provides a useful visual check on independence, a property necessary for pricing and trading derivatives and portfolio construction, as well as providing useful insights into the market dynamics.

  4. A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the ε-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jianzhou; Zhu Wenjin; Zhang Wenyu; Sun Donghuai

    2009-01-01

    Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined ε-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the ε-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved.

  5. A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the epsilon-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Jianzhou [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhu Wenjin, E-mail: crying.1@hotmail.co [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhang Wenyu [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Sun Donghuai [Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

    2009-11-15

    Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined epsilon-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the epsilon-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved.

  6. A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the {epsilon}-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jianzhou; Zhu, Wenjin [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhang, Wenyu [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Sun, Donghuai [Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

    2009-11-15

    Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined {epsilon}-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the {epsilon}-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved. (author)

  7. Automated time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) for improved process analysis and long-term monitoring of frozen ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauck, Christian; Hilbich, Christin; Fuss, Christian

    2010-05-01

    Determining the subsurface ice and unfrozen water content in cold regions are important tasks in all kind of cryospheric studies, but especially on perennial (permafrost) or seasonal frozen ground, where little insights can be gained from direct observations at the surface. In the absence of boreholes, geophysical methods are often the only possibility for visualising and quantifying the subsurface characteristics. Their successful applications in recent years lead to more and more sophisticated approaches including 2- and 3-dimensional monitoring and even quantifying the ice and unfrozen water content evolution within the subsurface. Due to the strong sensitivity of electrical resistivity to the phase change between unfrozen water and ice, the application of electrical and electromagnetic techniques has been especially successful. Within these methods, Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) is often favoured due to its comparatively easy and fast data processing, its robustness against ambient noise and its good performance even in harsh, cold and heterogeneous environments. Numerous recent studies have shown that ERT is principally suitable to spatially delineate ground ice, differentiate between ice-poor and ice-rich occurrences, monitor freezing, thawing and infiltration processes. However, resistivity surveys have still to be made manually, which poses large constraints concerning the comparability of measurements at specific time instances, e.g. the choice of the date for end-of-summer measurements, and/or the possibility for measurements during winter, when many locations are inaccessible. Furthermore, many climate studies require the analysis of statistically meaningful properties, such as maximum/minimum values and monthly or annual mean values, which cannot be determined using temporally sparse and irregularly spaced measurements. As a new system for future automated measurements with regular time interval (e.g. 1 measurement per day), an automated ERT

  8. Estimación del precio de oferta de la energía eléctrica en Colombia mediante inteligencia artificial || Estimating the Spot Market Price Bid in Colombian Electricity Market by Using Artificial Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hurtado Moreno, Laura

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Uno de los sectores económicos estratégicos más importantes en cualquier economía es el Mercado de Energía Mayorista, cuya característica fundamental es que se trata de un mercado oligopolístico, provocado por la barrera de entrada que supone tener economías de escala. De esta manera, los agentes pueden presentar comportamientos estratégicos que contribuyen a la maximización de sus utilidades, los cuales se ven reflejados en la oferta diaria del precio y de la cantidad de energía por hora en cada una de sus centrales de generación. En este trabajo se presenta una metodología para la estimación de los precios diarios a los que ofertan la energía que producen los principales recursos hídricos y térmicos en Colombia. Se emplean dos herramientas de Inteligencia Artificial: la Lógica Difusa y las Redes Neuronales. Dichas técnicas resultan ser parcialmente efectivas para seguir las tendencias de dichos precios. También se comparan los resultados con los de modelos autorregresivos, que resultan ser inapropiados para el caso de estudio. || One of the most important economic strategic sectors in any economy is the electricity market. Its main feature is its oligopolistic character favoured by the returns to scale which act as an entry barrier. As a result, the energy generators can use their power market in order to increase their benefits through the daily offered price and quantity of energy for each of their power plants. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the daily offered price of the most important power stations in Colombia (hydraulic and thermal by applying artificial intelligence techniques: Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks. Such techniques are found to be partially useful particularly for price tendencies. It also compares the results with autoregressive models that turned out inappropriate for the case of study.

  9. Dominant white spotting in the Chinese hamster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henwood, C; Henwood, J; Robinson, R

    1987-01-01

    An autosomal dominant white spotting mutant is described for the Chinese hamster. The mutant gene is designated as dominant spot (symbol Ds). The homozygote DsDs is a prenatal lethal while the heterozygote Ds + displays white spotting. The expression of white is variable, ranging from a white forehead spot to extensive white on the body. The venter is invariably white. Growth appears to be normal and the fertility of both sizes shows no impairment.

  10. Laser Pyrometer For Spot Temperature Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elleman, D. D.; Allen, J. L.; Lee, M. C.

    1988-01-01

    Laser pyrometer makes temperature map by scanning measuring spot across target. Scanning laser pyrometer passively measures radiation emitted by scanned spot on target and calibrated by similar passive measurement on blackbody of known temperature. Laser beam turned on for active measurements of reflectances of target spot and reflectance standard. From measurements, temperature of target spot inferred. Pyrometer useful for non-contact measurement of temperature distributions in processing of materials.

  11. Long-term energy and climate implications of carbon capture and storage deployment strategies in the US coal-fired electricity fleet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathre, Roger; Masanet, Eric

    2012-09-04

    To understand the long-term energy and climate implications of different implementation strategies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the US coal-fired electricity fleet, we integrate three analytical elements: scenario projection of energy supply systems, temporally explicit life cycle modeling, and time-dependent calculation of radiative forcing. Assuming continued large-scale use of coal for electricity generation, we find that aggressive implementation of CCS could reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) from the US coal-fired power fleet through 2100 by 37-58%. Cumulative radiative forcing through 2100 would be reduced by only 24-46%, due to the front-loaded time profile of the emissions and the long atmospheric residence time of CO(2). The efficiency of energy conversion and carbon capture technologies strongly affects the amount of primary energy used but has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing. Delaying implementation of CCS deployment significantly increases long-term radiative forcing. This study highlights the time-dynamic nature of potential climate benefits and energy costs of different CCS deployment pathways and identifies opportunities and constraints of successful CCS implementation.

  12. Long-term exposure to electric fields. A cross-sectional epidemiologic investigation of occupationally exposed workers in high-voltage substations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knave, B; Gamberale, F; Bergström, S; Birke, E; Iregren, A; Kolmodin-Hedman, B; Wennberg, A

    1979-06-01

    In the present epidemiologic study, 53 workers with a long-term (more than five years) exposure to the electric field of 400 kV substations were examined and compared with a matched reference group of 53 nonexposed workers from the same power companies. Matching variables included age, geographic location and employment time. The aim of the study was to investigate the possibility of persistent, chronic health effects in the exposed group as a consequence of exposure. The investigation indluded the nervous system (neurasthenic symptoms, psychological tests, electroencephalography), the cardiovascular system (symptoms, blood pressure, electrocardiography), and the blood (hemoglobin, red blood cells, reticulocytes, white blood cells including differential count, thrombocytes, sedimentation rate). Fertility was also assessed. The results showed no differences between the exposed and reference groups as a consequence of the long-term exposure to the electric fields. The groups differed, however, in that the exposed group had (a) consistently better results on the psychological performance tests, (b) a fewer number of children, especially boys, and (c) somewhat higher education. The differences in test results were due to the higher education among the exposed. The difference in number of children was also thought to be related to factors other than exposure since it was found to be present already 10--15 years before the work in 400 kV substations began.

  13. Canine generalized demodicosis treated with varying doses of a 2.5% moxidectin+10% imidacloprid spot-on and oral ivermectin: parasiticidal effects and long-term treatment outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Tara E; Halliwell, Richard E; Fields, Paul J; Louw, Marta Lanza; Ball, Geoff; Louw, Jakobus; Pinckney, Rhonda

    2014-10-15

    Advocate(®) (2.5% moxidectin+10% imidacloprid) (Bayer HealthCare, Leverkusen, Germany) is a multiparasiticidal spot-on authorized for treating canine demodicosis in many countries. This blinded, randomized three-phase clinical trial compared its efficacy employing different dosing regimens with that of ivermectin. In the blinded first phase, 58 dogs suffering from generalized demodicosis were randomly assigned to one of four groups and treated with monthly, biweekly or weekly applications of Advocate(®), or with oral ivermectin (IVR) at 500 μg/kg daily. Dogs were evaluated clinically and multiple skin scrapings undertaken every 4 weeks until parasitological cure was achieved (defined as two consecutive series of deep skin scrapings at monthly intervals negative for all life forms). Forty dogs completed the 16-week initial blinded phase, with 5 cases achieving parasitological cure. Five dogs were deemed treatment failures and subsequently treated with ivermectin. The treatment protocol was then changed for the remaining 35 dogs and this cross-over phase (Phase 2) was maintained for a further 8 weeks with an additional 9 dogs achieving parasitological cure. Thereafter, all remaining animals were treated with IVR until cured (Phase 3). Overall, 26 dogs achieved parasitological cure during the clinical investigation. Of these, 23 remained disease-free for at least 12 months while two were lost to follow up and one died of unrelated causes. A total of 32 (55.2%) dogs were withdrawn at various stages of the investigation including the 5 dogs that were judged treatment failures. Other reasons for withdrawal included: non-compliance, lost to follow-up, ivermectin toxicity or reasons unrelated to the investigation. No adverse effects were attributable to the use of Advocate(®). Parasiticidal efficacy was assessed by changes in mite counts (live adult, juvenile and egg) and skin lesion extent & severity scores. Statistical significance was assessed using ANCOVA with

  14. LEOPARD syndrome: what are café noir spots?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Bujaldón, Alfonso; Vazquez-Bayo, Carmen; Jimenez-Puya, Rafael; Galan-Gutierrez, Manuel; Moreno-Gimenez, José; Rodriguez-Garcia, Alfonso; Tercedor, Jesus; Velez-Garcia, Antonio

    2008-01-01

    Lentigines, electrocardiographic abnormalities, ocular hypertelorism, pulmonary stenosis, abnormalities of genitalia, retarded growth, and deafness syndrome (multiple lentigines syndrome) is most often characterized by multiple lentigines and cardiac conduction defects. Café noir spot is a term proposed, by analogy to café au lait spots, for the larger and darkly pigmented patches that are frequently observed in patients with this syndrome. Although presumed by some authors to represent lentigines, the histologic features of café noir spots have not been well documented in the literature. Only two previous cases have been reported in which a biopsy of the café noir spots than melanocytic nevi. We describe the histologic characteristics of seven café noir spots in six patients with lentigines, electrocardiographic abnormalities, ocular hypertelorism, pulmonary stenosis, abnormalities of genitalia, retarded growth, and deafness syndrome. Three lesions represented melanocytic nevi (one with dysplastic features), and four were compatible with lentigo simplex. These findings help our understanding of the histologic spectrum of pigmented lesions in lentigines, electrocardiographic abnormalities, ocular hypertelorism, pulmonary stenosis, abnormalities of genitalia, retarded growth, and deafness syndrome.

  15. Real Time Ultrasonic Aluminum SPOT Weld Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regalado, W. Pérez; Chertov, A. M.; Maev, R. Gr.

    2010-02-01

    Aluminum alloys pose several properties that make them one of the most popular engineering materials: they have excellent corrosion resistance, and high weight-to-strength ratio. Resistance spot welding of aluminum alloys is widely used today but oxide film and aluminum thermal and electrical properties make spot welding a difficult task. Electrode degradation due to pitting, alloying and mushrooming decreases the weld quality and adjustment of parameters like current and force is required. To realize these adjustments and ensure weld quality, a tool to measure weld quality in real time is required. In this paper, a real time ultrasonic non-destructive evaluation system for aluminum spot welds is presented. The system is able to monitor nugget growth while the spot weld is being made. This is achieved by interpreting the echoes of an ultrasound transducer located in one of the welding electrodes. The transducer receives and transmits an ultrasound signal at different times during the welding cycle. Valuable information of the weld quality is embedded in this signal. The system is able to determine the weld nugget diameter by measuring the delays of the ultrasound signals received during the complete welding cycle. The article presents the system performance on aluminum alloy AA6022.

  16. Hybrid Electricity Markets with Long-Term Risk-Sharing Arrangements: Adapting Market Design to Security of Supply and decarbonization Objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ROQUES, Fabien; FINON, Dominique

    2017-01-01

    The re-emergence of policy interventionism in electricity markets raises questions as to how market design can best be adapted to meeting the investment challenge associated with security of supply (SoS) and decarbonization objectives. This paper takes an institutionalist approach in terms of modularity of the market design, and reviews the standard historical approach towards competitive markets, in order to analyse the roles and interactions of the initial and additional market 'modules'. We argue that a number of additional modules is required to achieve long-term policy objectives, such as decarbonization and security of supply (SoS). But, in turn, they destabilise the initial modules of the market design, in particular by the entries of renewables. We review the international experience with hybrid market design and draw a number of policy recommendations at to best practices, as well as suggesting ways in which the initial market modules can be improved to prevent inconsistencies with the new modules. The move towards a hybrid market regime, which relies on a combination of planning, long-term risk sharing arrangements and improved markets entrenched in a function of short-term coordination, appears to be unavoidable where decarbonization policies are adopted. (authors)

  17. Sweet Spots and Door Stops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Michael; Tsui, Stella; Leung, Chi Fan

    2011-01-01

    A sweet spot is referred to in sport as the perfect place to strike a ball with a racquet or bat. It is the point of contact between bat and ball where maximum results can be produced with minimal effort from the hand of the player. Similar physics can be applied to the less inspiring examples of door stops; the perfect position of a door stop is…

  18. Justifications shape ethical blind spots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittarello, Andrea; Leib, Margarita; Gordon-Hecker, Tom; Shalvi, Shaul

    2015-06-01

    To some extent, unethical behavior results from people's limited attention to ethical considerations, which results in an ethical blind spot. Here, we focus on the role of ambiguity in shaping people's ethical blind spots, which in turn lead to their ethical failures. We suggest that in ambiguous settings, individuals' attention shifts toward tempting information, which determines the magnitude of their lies. Employing a novel ambiguous-dice paradigm, we asked participants to report the outcome of the die roll appearing closest to the location of a previously presented fixation cross on a computer screen; this outcome would determine their pay. We varied the value of the die second closest to the fixation cross to be either higher (i.e., tempting) or lower (i.e., not tempting) than the die closest to the fixation cross. Results of two experiments revealed that in ambiguous settings, people's incorrect responses were self-serving. Tracking participants' eye movements demonstrated that people's ethical blind spots are shaped by increased attention toward tempting information. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Resistance Spot Welding of dissimilar Steels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ladislav Kolařík

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the properties of resistance spot welds between low carbon steel and austenitic CrNi stainless steel. The thickness of the welded dissimilar materials was 2 mm. A DeltaSpot welding gun with a process tape was used for welding the dissimilar steels. Resistance spot welds were produced with various welding parameters (welding currents ranging from 7 to 8 kA. Light microscopy, microhardness measurements across the welded joints, and EDX analysis were used to evaluate the quality of the resistance spot welds. The results confirm the applicability of DeltaSpot welding for this combination of materials.

  20. Long-term evolution of brainstem electrical evoked responses to sound after restricted ablation of the auditory cortex.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verónica Lamas

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to assess the top-down control of sound processing in the auditory brainstem of rats. Short latency evoked responses were analyzed after unilateral or bilateral ablation of auditory cortex. This experimental paradigm was also used towards analyzing the long-term evolution of post-lesion plasticity in the auditory system and its ability to self-repair. METHOD: Auditory cortex lesions were performed in rats by stereotactically guided fine-needle aspiration of the cerebrocortical surface. Auditory Brainstem Responses (ABR were recorded at post-surgery day (PSD 1, 7, 15 and 30. Recordings were performed under closed-field conditions, using click trains at different sound intensity levels, followed by statistical analysis of threshold values and ABR amplitude and latency variables. Subsequently, brains were sectioned and immunostained for GAD and parvalbumin to assess the location and extent of lesions accurately. RESULTS: Alterations in ABR variables depended on the type of lesion and post-surgery time of ABR recordings. Accordingly, bilateral ablations caused a statistically significant increase in thresholds at PSD1 and 7 and a decrease in waves amplitudes at PSD1 that recover at PSD7. No effects on latency were noted at PSD1 and 7, whilst recordings at PSD15 and 30 showed statistically significant decreases in latency. Conversely, unilateral ablations had no effect on auditory thresholds or latencies, while wave amplitudes only decreased at PSD1 strictly in the ipsilateral ear. CONCLUSION: Post-lesion plasticity in the auditory system acts in two time periods: short-term period of decreased sound sensitivity (until PSD7, most likely resulting from axonal degeneration; and a long-term period (up to PSD7, with changes in latency responses and recovery of thresholds and amplitudes values. The cerebral cortex may have a net positive gain on the auditory pathway response to sound.

  1. Long term strategy for electricity generation in Peninsular Malaysia – Analysis of cost and carbon footprint using MESSAGE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairuz, S.M.C.; Sulaiman, M.Y.; Lim, C.H.; Mat, S.; Ali, B.; Saadatian, O.; Ruslan, M.H.; Salleh, E.; Sopian, K.

    2013-01-01

    Malaysia envisages becoming a developed nation by 2020. To sustain industrial expansion and attract investments Malaysia must introduce new energy strategies. These strategies should also moderate carbon footprint. The new energy strategies introduced by the government are (i) installation of nuclear power plant by 2021, (ii) import of Sarawak hydropower from 2015 and (iii) enhancement of use of renewable energy from 2015. In this paper we analyze the cost and resulting carbon footprint of energy expansion for 12 energy scenes (inclusive of new strategies) to produce electricity for Peninsular Malaysia for the period 2009–2030. We use a computer model MESSAGE to provide optimization. The best strategy is for the following accumulated percentage of energy resource in the fuel mix: 49.3% (natural gas), 28.4% (coal), 4.06% (nuclear), 2.98% (hydropower), 4.45% (renewable), 10.82% (import hydropower). The minimum cost of expanding this strategy from 2009 until 2030 is USD6.090B. The CO 2 emission index of this strategy is 0.329 t/MWh. The accumulated carbon dioxide emission for this period is 1825.96 Mton CO 2 eq. -- Highlights: •We analyzed the cost of energy expansion and resulting carbon emission using software MESSAGE. •We studied the energy situation for the next 20 years beginning 2009 for Peninsular Malaysia. •We maintained the present energy resources of natural gas, coal and internal hydropower. •We included nuclear, hydropower import and renewable energy as new strategies

  2. Independent power and cogeneration in Ontario's new competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnstable, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    The factors influencing the initial market pricing in the early years of Ontario's new electricity market were discussed with particular insight on the potential for near term development of independent power and cogeneration. The major factors influencing prices include: (1) no increase in retail prices, (2) financial restructuring of Ontario Hydro, (3) the Market Power Mitigation Agreement, (4) tighter power plant emissions standards, and (5) an electricity supply and demand balance. Generation competition is not expected to influence market pricing in the early years of the new electricity market. Prices will instead reflect the restructuring decisions of the Ontario government. The decision to have Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPGI) as a single generator for Ontario Hydro's generation assets will ensure that average spot market pricing in the early market years will be close to a 3.8 c/kWh revenue cap

  3. Spot distribution and fast surface evolution on Vega

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petit, P.; Hébrard, E. M.; Böhm, T.; Folsom, C. P.; Lignières, F.

    2017-11-01

    Spectral signatures of surface spots were recently discovered from high cadence observations of the A star Vega. We aim at constraining the surface distribution of these photospheric inhomogeneities and investigating a possible short-term evolution of the spot pattern. Using data collected over five consecutive nights, we employ the Doppler imaging method to reconstruct three different maps of the stellar surface, from three consecutive subsets of the whole time series. The surface maps display a complex distribution of dark and bright spots, covering most of the visible fraction of the stellar surface. A number of surface features are consistently recovered in all three maps, but other features seem to evolve over the time span of observations, suggesting that fast changes can affect the surface of Vega within a few days at most. The short-term evolution is observed as emergence or disappearance of individual spots, and may also show up as zonal flows, with low- and high-latitude belts rotating faster than intermediate latitudes. It is tempting to relate the surface brightness activity to the complex magnetic field topology previously reconstructed for Vega, although strictly simultaneous brightness and magnetic maps will be necessary to assess this potential link.

  4. Double electrical layer in the cathode spot / Двойной электрический слой в катодном пятне / Dvostruki električni sloj u katodnom spotu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonid I. Gretchikhin

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes a new phenomenon of the generation of the double electrical layer above the cathode spot surface. The neutralization of this layer leads to the reverse current of free electrons, generated due to negative ions ionization. The negatively charged flame of the cathode spot periodically ignites and attenuates, so the duration of the cathode spot existence is defined by this oscillating process. The reverse motion of the cathode spot in the longitudinal magnetic field takes place owing to the generation of the reverse high-power neutralization current of the double electrical layer by the electrons appearing during the negative ions ionization in the cathode flame. / Установлено новое явление, заключающееся в образовании над поверхностью катодного пятна двойного электрического слоя, нейтрализация которого приводит к обратному току свободными электронами, образующихся вследствие ионизации отрицательных ионов. Отрицательно заряженный факел из катодного пятна периодически пропадает и возникает. Этот колебательный процесс определяет длительность существования катодного пятна. Обратное движение катодного пятна в продольном магнитном поле происходит вследствие образования обратного мощного тока нейтрализации двойного электрического слоя электронами, возникающих при ионизации отрицательных ионов в катодном факеле. / U radu se opisuje novootkrivena pojava stvaranja dvostrukog

  5. Non-invasively estimated left atrial stiffness is associated with short-term recurrence of atrial fibrillation after electrical cardioversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, Paolo Nicola; Degiovanni, Anna; Baduena, Lara; Occhetta, Eraldo; Dell'Era, Gabriele; Erdei, Tamas; Fraser, Alan G

    2017-05-01

    As atrial stiffness (K la ) is an important determinant of cardiac pump function, better mechanical characterization of left atrial (LA) cavity would be clinically relevant. Pulmonary venous ablation is an option for atrial fibrillation (AF) treatment that offers a powerful context for improving our understanding of LA mechanical function. We hypothesized that a relation could be detected between invasive estimation of K la and new non-invasive deformation parameters and traditional LA and left ventricular (LV) function descriptors, so that K la can be estimated non-invasively. We also hypothesized that a non-invasive surrogate of K la would be useful in predicting AF recurrence after cardioversion. In 20 patients undergoing AF ablation, LA pressure-volume curves were derived from invasive pressure and echocardiographic images; K la was calculated during ascending limb of V-loop as ΔLA pressure/ΔLA volume. 2D-speckle-tracking echocardiographic LA and LV longitudinal strains and volumes, ejection fraction (EF) and ventricular stiffness (K lv ), as obtained from mitral deceleration time, were tested as non-invasive K la predictors. In 128 sinus rhythm patients 1 month after electrical cardioversion for persistent AF, non-invasively estimated K la (computed-K la ) was tested as predictor of recurrence at 6 months. Tertiles of mean LA pressure correlated with increasing K la (trend, p=0.06) and decreasing LA peak strain, LVEF, and LV longitudinal strain (p=0.029, p=0.019, and p=0.024). There were no differences in LA and LV volumes and K lv across groups. Multiple regression analysis identified LV longitudinal strain as the only independent predictor of K la (p=0.014). Patients in highest quartile of computed-K la (estimated as [log]=0.735+0.051×LV strain) tended to have highest AF recurrence rate (25%) as compared with remaining 3 quartiles (9%, 9%, 3%, p=0.09). K la can be assessed invasively in patients undergoing AF ablation and it can be estimated non

  6. [Efficacy of levetiracetam combined with short-term clonazepam in treatment of electrical status epilepticus during sleep in children with benign childhood epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Tang-Feng; Xu, San-Qing; Chen, Ling

    2014-08-01

    To study the efficacy of levetiracetam (LEV) combined with short-term clonazepam (CZP) in the treatment of electrical status epilepticus during sleep (ESES) in children with benign childhood epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes (BECCT). Fifteen children (9 boys and 6 girls) diagnosed with BECCT with ESES, who had continuous spike-and-wave accounting for over 85% of the non-rapid eye movement sleep as monitored by 24-hours ambulatory EEG or 3-hours video EEG, were enrolled. The clinical manifestations and EEG characteristics of patients were retrospectively analyzed. These children received two months of CZP treatment in addition to oral LEV [20-40 mg/(kg·d)]. All patients were followed up for 6-18 months. The 15 children were orally given LEV in the early stage, but showed no improvement when reexamined by EEG or had seizures during treatment. Then, they received LEV in combination with short-term CZP. Re-examinations at 1 and 6 months after treatment showed that 14 cases had significantly reduced discharge (only little discharge in the Rolandic area) or no discharge, as well as completely controlled seizure; one case had recurrent ESES and two epileptic seizures during follow-up. The recurrent case received the combination therapy again, and re-examinations 1 and 6 months later revealed normal EEG; no seizure occurred in the 8 months of follow-up. LEV combined with short-term CZP is effective and has few side effects in treating ESES syndrome among children with BECCT.

  7. 2500 km on solar-electric bike: let’s congratulate them by giving a donation to the Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    On 15th July, the adventure on “solar-electric bike” to promote solar and eco-mobility of our colleagues, Céline and Jean had to be interrupted in Odessa, Ukraine, for health reasons. In about four weeks, they already had crossed eight countries: Switzerland, France, Italy, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, Moldavia and Ukraine. On their request, you can show your solidarity by subscribing to a humanitarian action in which you commit yourself to give a minimum of 30 CHF and a maximum of 80 CHF (10 CHF for each crossed country) to the Long-Term Collections (for further information on the Long-Term Collections, see their website: http://cern.ch/staffassoc/CLT/). Participate to this action by registering yourself on the following website: https://cern.ch/staff-association/content/soutien-celine-jean. You will then receive a payment slip that will allow you to pay the amount of your choice into the account of the Long-Term Collections. We congratulate our colleagues and champions,...

  8. 2500 km on solar-electric bike: let’s congratulate them by giving a donation to the Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2013-01-01

    On 15th July, the adventure on “solar-electric bike” to promote solar and eco-mobility of our colleagues, Céline and Jean had to be interrupted in Odessa, Ukraine, for health reasons. In about four weeks, they already had crossed eight countries: Switzerland, France, Italy, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, Moldavia and Ukraine. On their request, you can show your solidarity by subscribing to a humanitarian action in which you commit yourself to give a minimum of 30 CHF and a maximum of 80 CHF (10 CHF for each crossed country) to the Long-Term Collections (for further information on the Long-Term Collections, see their website: http://cern.ch/staffassoc/CLT/). Participate to this action by registering yourself on the following website: https://cern.ch/staff-association/content/soutien-celine-jean. You will then receive a payment slip that will allow you to pay the amount of your choice into the account of the Long-Term Collections. We congratulate our colleagues and champions, C&a...

  9. Long-term energy planning of Croatian power system using multi-objective optimization with focus on renewable energy and integration of electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prebeg, Pero; Gasparovic, Goran; Krajacic, Goran; Duic, Neven

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Optimization of supply side long-term energy planning of large power system. • Integration of renewable sources and electrical vehicles in large power system. • Multi-level, multi-objective optimization for a design of energy system. • Historical river flow data analysis for modeling of aggregated hydropower potential. - Abstract: Due to the stochastic nature and variability of renewable energy sources (RES), it is necessary to integrate still expensive storage capacities into an energy system with a high share of RES and to model appropriate energy market. The study presented here considers all energy carriers, however, only the electricity carrier is modeled in detail, with notion taken for the heating demand that is covered but without proper modeling of storage. A proposed two-level approach with multi-objective optimization on the global level, was used to design a Croatian Energy System (CES), where electric vehicles (EVs) are integrated to serve as battery storage in Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) mode, for a scenario between 2015 and 2050. In addition, case study includes nine aggregated hydro power plants, one for each river basin in Croatia. Also, case study includes solar and wind power plants modeled for six locations in Croatia: Osijek, Zagreb, Rijeka, Sibenik, Split and Dubrovnik. The resulting Pareto front suggests that with assumed future costs of fuels and technology certain level of conventional energy sources will have to remain in the energy system to take into the account unfavourable weather conditions and to cover heating demand, which also results in significantly lower load factors for those power plants. Also, variants with more RES share have lower total energy system load factor and significantly higher installed capacity.

  10. A possibilistic model to determine the cost of environmental quality in mid/short term planning of an electricity distribution system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweickardt, Gustavo Alejandro; Gimenez Alvarez, Juan Manuel

    2012-01-01

    This work presents a Possibilistic Optimization Model to determine the Dynamic Environmental Quality Cost, applied on an Electricity Distribution System and measured as Network System Visual Impact. The Mid/Short Term Planning is the Regulatory Control Period. A multicriteria optimization approach is proposed, and for each criterion, non-stochastic uncertainties are recognized and represented by mean the introduction of Fuzzy Sets. In this way, a possibility in the occurrence of criteria variables values is established. In addition, as consequence of uncertainties of criteria preference ranking, a Model to obtain criteria Priority Vector is introduced. The Environmental Quality Cost determination is based in the relationship between the Investment Cost and an Impact Index of Network System Environmental Quality, proposed in this work. Finally, a simulation on a real system and the most important conclusions are presented.

  11. Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polikevych Nataliya I.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

  12. Watermarking spot colors in packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Alastair; Filler, TomáÅ.¡; Falkenstern, Kristyn; Bai, Yang

    2015-03-01

    In January 2014, Digimarc announced Digimarc® Barcode for the packaging industry to improve the check-out efficiency and customer experience for retailers. Digimarc Barcode is a machine readable code that carries the same information as a traditional Universal Product Code (UPC) and is introduced by adding a robust digital watermark to the package design. It is imperceptible to the human eye but can be read by a modern barcode scanner at the Point of Sale (POS) station. Compared to a traditional linear barcode, Digimarc Barcode covers the whole package with minimal impact on the graphic design. This significantly improves the Items per Minute (IPM) metric, which retailers use to track the checkout efficiency since it closely relates to their profitability. Increasing IPM by a few percent could lead to potential savings of millions of dollars for retailers, giving them a strong incentive to add the Digimarc Barcode to their packages. Testing performed by Digimarc showed increases in IPM of at least 33% using the Digimarc Barcode, compared to using a traditional barcode. A method of watermarking print ready image data used in the commercial packaging industry is described. A significant proportion of packages are printed using spot colors, therefore spot colors needs to be supported by an embedder for Digimarc Barcode. Digimarc Barcode supports the PANTONE spot color system, which is commonly used in the packaging industry. The Digimarc Barcode embedder allows a user to insert the UPC code in an image while minimizing perceptibility to the Human Visual System (HVS). The Digimarc Barcode is inserted in the printing ink domain, using an Adobe Photoshop plug-in as the last step before printing. Since Photoshop is an industry standard widely used by pre-press shops in the packaging industry, a Digimarc Barcode can be easily inserted and proofed.

  13. Quantitation of 5-Methyltetrahydrofolic Acid in Dried Blood Spots and Dried Plasma Spots by Stable Isotope Dilution Assays.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Kopp

    Full Text Available Because of minimal data available on folate analysis in dried matrix spots (DMSs, we combined the advantages of stable isotope dilution assays followed by LC-MS/MS analysis with DMS sampling to develop a reliable method for the quantitation of plasma 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid in dried blood spots (DBSs and dried plasma spots (DPSs as well as for the quantitation of whole blood 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid in DBSs. We focused on two diagnostically conclusive parameters exhibited by the plasma and whole blood 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid levels that reflect both temporary and long-term folate status. The method is performed using the [2H4]-labeled isotopologue of the vitamin as the internal standard, and three steps are required for the extraction procedure. Elution of the punched out matrix spots was performed using stabilization buffer including Triton X-100 in a standardized ultrasonication treatment followed by enzymatic digestion (whole blood only and solid-phase extraction with SAX cartridges. This method is sensitive enough to quantify 27 nmol/L whole blood 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid in DBSs and 6.3 and 4.4 nmol/L plasma 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid in DBSs and DPSs, respectively. The unprecedented accurate quantification of plasma 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid in DBSs was achieved by thermal treatment prior to ultrasonication, inhibiting plasma conjugase activity. Mass screenings are more feasible and easier to facilitate for this method in terms of sample collection and storage compared with conventional clinical sampling for the assessment of folate status.

  14. Latest generation of unipolar and bipolar steroid eluting leads: long-term comparison of electrical performance in atrium and ventricles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornacchia, D; Fabbri, M; Puglisi, A; Moracchini, P; Bernasconi, M; Nastasi, M; Menozzi, C; Mascioli, G; Marotta, T; de Seta, F

    2000-07-01

    One hundred and seventy-three patients, mean age 74 years permanently paced with 123 atrial (53 unipolar, 70 bipolar) and 143 ventricular (73 unipolar, 70 bipolar) pacing leads were included in this study. The pacing leads were recent generation low surface area steroid eluting leads from one manufacturer: leads with silicone and polyurethane insulation were studied, and they were combined with generations of one pacemaker family from the same manufacturer permitting identical measurements to be made over a follow-up of 2 years. Pacing threshold was measured using pulse duration at a fixed voltage of 1.5 V: peak to peak P and R wave amplitude and pacing impedance at 2.5 V and 0.5 ms were all measured using the manufacturer's standard programmer. Although many significant differences, in the parameters measures, existed between atrium and ventricle and unipolar and bipolar configurations, none was felt to be of clinical significance. These data permit the physician to choose the lead type with regard to sensing performance and long-term lead integrity.

  15. A Permutation Importance-Based Feature Selection Method for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using Random Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nantian Huang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The prediction accuracy of short-term load forecast (STLF depends on prediction model choice and feature selection result. In this paper, a novel random forest (RF-based feature selection method for STLF is proposed. First, 243 related features were extracted from historical load data and the time information of prediction points to form the original feature set. Subsequently, the original feature set was used to train an RF as the original model. After the training process, the prediction error of the original model on the test set was recorded and the permutation importance (PI value of each feature was obtained. Then, an improved sequential backward search method was used to select the optimal forecasting feature subset based on the PI value of each feature. Finally, the optimal forecasting feature subset was used to train a new RF model as the final prediction model. Experiments showed that the prediction accuracy of RF trained by the optimal forecasting feature subset was higher than that of the original model and comparative models based on support vector regression and artificial neural network.

  16. Comparing the spot prices from Powernext and EEX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galli, A.; Armstrong, M.

    2005-01-01

    Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised exchange. Powernext started operating on 27 November 2001. Although the German exchange, EEX, has been functioning for much longer, the two have many common points. Both use the same system for fixing the day-ahead spot price, the one developed by NordPool. In contrast to Omel in Spain, power producers in France and Germany are not obliged to sell through the exchange. In addition, the cross-border transmission lines that physically link the French and German grids, not only make the electricity supply more reliable they also allow cross-border commercial transactions which should homogenize prices in both countries. So after nearly a year of operation it is interesting to compare the spot prices on the two exchanges in order to have a better understanding of the statistical properties of the prices in the two markets and the relationship between them. This information will be used when modelling the structure of the day-ahead spot prices. The data used to carry out the study consists of the (hourly) spot prices for electricity from Powernext and EEX, for the period from 1 January 2002 to 2 December 2002. Data from the first five weeks of trading were not included because traded volumes were relatively low initially and so these data are not necessarily representative. This report is divided into four sections. The first one presents the basic statistics, starting with the histograms of all the 8064 spot prices in the 336 days, for both exchanges. In time series data, it is usual to find three types of seasonality: daily, weekly and annual. As the available data cover less than one calendar year, it is too early to attempt to study annual trends. So we limit ourselves to studying daily and weekly fluctuations. Plotting the hourly average prices for each day of the week shows some interesting differences between Powernext and

  17. Oil futures and spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samii, M.V.

    1992-01-01

    In the last decade, the oil futures market has risen to prominence and has become a major factor in influencing oil market psychology and the crude oil market. On a normal day, over 92 thousand contracts, the equivalent of 92 million barrels per day, change hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. This market has provided a vehicle for hedging against risk. At the same time, it has also created opportunities for speculation. Those who previously were unable to participate in oil market transactions can now become involved through the futures market. The large number of participants in the future market and the availability of information has made this market more efficient and transparent, relative to the crude oil market. While there has been considerable in-depth analysis of other future markets, relatively little theoretical attention has focused on that of oil. This paper looks at the following issues. First, what is the relationship between futures and spot oil prices? And secondly, are futures prices a good predictor of spot crude prices in the future? (author)

  18. Integrating sustainable hunting in biodiversity protection in Central Africa: hot spots, weak spots, and strong spots.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John E Fa

    Full Text Available Wild animals are a primary source of protein (bushmeat for people living in or near tropical forests. Ideally, the effect of bushmeat harvests should be monitored closely by making regular estimates of offtake rate and size of stock available for exploitation. However, in practice, this is possible in very few situations because it requires both of these aspects to be readily measurable, and even in the best case, entails very considerable time and effort. As alternative, in this study, we use high-resolution, environmental favorability models for terrestrial mammals (N = 165 in Central Africa to map areas of high species richness (hot spots and hunting susceptibility. Favorability models distinguish localities with environmental conditions that favor the species' existence from those with detrimental characteristics for its presence. We develop an index for assessing Potential Hunting Sustainability (PHS of each species based on their ecological characteristics (population density, habitat breadth, rarity and vulnerability, weighted according to restrictive and permissive assumptions of how species' characteristics are combined. Species are classified into five main hunting sustainability classes using fuzzy logic. Using the accumulated favorability values of all species, and their PHS values, we finally identify weak spots, defined as high diversity regions of especial hunting vulnerability for wildlife, as well as strong spots, defined as high diversity areas of high hunting sustainability potential. Our study uses relatively simple models that employ easily obtainable data of a species' ecological characteristics to assess the impacts of hunting in tropical regions. It provides information for management by charting the geography of where species are more or less likely to be at risk of extinction from hunting.

  19. The evolution of electricity prices in an uncertain world. Contracting and managing the price risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vassilopoulos, Ph.; Rapin, D.

    2004-01-01

    With the liberalization of the electricity market, the large industrial consumers saw their electric bill changing nature. Before, this price reflected a long term negotiation with the monopoly, now it is established in a free way via wholesale markets. This evolution marks a transfer of the management of price risk from the producer towards the consumer. This change is not in itself a problem if the hedging instruments are adapted. We note a contamination of the price of the derivative products by the spot while at the same time the traditional relation between cash and term is not always valid for electricity because of its non storability. When well even the price of the derivative products would be formed in an autonomous way, it poses a second problem: that of their indexing on price references like Platt's whose result is assimilated more to a survey of large producers than a true confrontation of supply and demand. This article proposes to examine this change of nature and behaviour of electricity prices. After having explained the intrinsically volatile characteristic of spot prices, we will recall that the products in the long term are not always optimal solutions to decrease this price risk. Lastly, we will highlight a solution of skirting at the risks mentioned above: contracting between producers and consumers. (authors)

  20. Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

  1. Electricity generation and microbial community in response to short-term changes in stack connection of self-stacked submersible microbial fuel cell powered by glycerol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Nannan; Angelidaki, Irini; Zhang, Yifeng

    2017-02-01

    Stack connection (i.e., in series or parallel) of microbial fuel cell (MFC) is an efficient way to boost the power output for practical application. However, there is little information available on short-term changes in stack connection and its effect on the electricity generation and microbial community. In this study, a self-stacked submersible microbial fuel cell (SSMFC) powered by glycerol was tested to elucidate this important issue. In series connection, the maximum voltage output reached to 1.15 V, while maximum current density was 5.73 mA in parallel. In both connections, the maximum power density increased with the initial glycerol concentration. However, the glycerol degradation was even faster in parallel connection. When the SSMFC was shifted from series to parallel connection, the reactor reached to a stable power output without any lag phase. Meanwhile, the anodic microbial community compositions were nearly stable. Comparatively, after changing parallel to series connection, there was a lag period for the system to get stable again and the microbial community compositions became greatly different. This study is the first attempt to elucidate the influence of short-term changes in connection on the performance of MFC stack, and could provide insight to the practical utilization of MFC. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Birth-jump processes and application to forest fire spotting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillen, T; Greese, B; Martin, J; de Vries, G

    2015-01-01

    Birth-jump models are designed to describe population models for which growth and spatial spread cannot be decoupled. A birth-jump model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation. We present two different derivations of this equation, one based on a random walk approach and the other based on a two-compartmental reaction-diffusion model. In the case that the redistribution kernels are highly concentrated, we show that the integro-differential equation can be approximated by a reaction-diffusion equation, in which the proliferation rate contributes to both the diffusion term and the reaction term. We completely solve the corresponding critical domain size problem and the minimal wave speed problem. Birth-jump models can be applied in many areas in mathematical biology. We highlight an application of our results in the context of forest fire spread through spotting. We show that spotting increases the invasion speed of a forest fire front.

  3. Morphology of the HIV versus the diabetic cotton wool spot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworski, C

    2000-11-01

    Retinal cotton wool spots (CWS) have long been associated with many systemic diseases, including diabetes mellitus and infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The pathogenesis of the diabetic CWS has been well established but is not clear in HIV disease. This study documents a morphological difference between cotton wool spots observed in diabetes mellitus and HIV infection. Electronic images of 47 diabetic CWS and 38 HIV CWS were compared in terms of eccentricity. Each CWS was enlarged, and its major and minor axes were determined. Eccentricity was determined by use of a simple ratio of major vs. minor axis. The eccentricity of these diabetic and HIV CWS were compared by use of the Mann-Whitney rank sum test to check for significance. The HIV CWS was significantly more eccentric (p cotton wool spots observed in diabetes mellitus compared with those observed in HIV infection. This difference suggests that, at some level, the pathogeneses of these two CWS are not the same. Clinically, the practitioner should strongly suspect HIV disease in a patient with boomerang-shaped cotton wool spots.

  4. Long-term consequences of selected competitive strategies during deregulation of the United States electric utility industry: System dynamics modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Yehia Fahim

    Currently, U.S. investor-owned utilities (IOUs) are facing major reforms in their business environment similar to the airlines, telecommunications, banking, and insurance industries. As a result, IOUs are gearing up for fierce price competition in the power generation sector, and are vying for electricity customers outside their franchised service territories. Energy experts predict that some IOUs may suffer fatal financial setbacks (especially those with nuclear plants), while others may thrive under competition. Both federal and state energy regulators anticipate that it may take from five to ten years to complete the transition of America's electric utility industry from a regulated monopoly to a market-driven business. During this transition, utility executives are pursuing aggressive business strategies to confront the upcoming price wars. The most compelling strategies focus on cutting operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of power production, downsizing the work force, and signing bilateral energy agreements with large price-sensitive customers to retain their business. This research assesses the impact of the three pivotal strategies on financial performance of utilities during transition to open market competition. A system-dynamics-based management flight simulator has been developed to predict the dynamic performance of a hypothetical IOU organization preparing for market competition. The simulation results show that while the three business strategies lead to short-lived gains, they also produce unanticipated long-term consequences that adversely impact the organization's operating revenues. Generally, the designed flight simulator serves as a learning laboratory which allows management to test new strategies before implementation.

  5. Studies on Mechanical Alloying of Copper-Tungsten Carbide Composite for Spot Welding Electrode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhailawati, H.; Jamaludin, S. B.

    2009-12-01

    This article presents a study on the properties and performance of copper-based composite reinforced with recycled tungsten carbide powder as spot welding electrode. The copper-tungsten carbide composite electrode was prepared by mechanical alloying and powder forging before being machined into truncated cone-face geometry. The welding operation was conducted on galvanized steel using a pedestal-type spot welding machine. Composites with higher density and electrical conductivity were obtained after mechanical alloying for shorter time. In contrast, a higher hardness is shown in the composite, which was mechanically alloyed to longer time. The strength of the welded steel coupon was found to increase with decreasing milling time due to an increase in density and electrical conductivity. The wear behavior of the composite revealed that the deformation of the spot weld electrode increased with increasing milling time.

  6. Hot spots of mutualistic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilarranz, Luis J; Sabatino, Malena; Aizen, Marcelo A; Bascompte, Jordi

    2015-03-01

    Incorporating interactions into a biogeographical framework may serve to understand how interactions and the services they provide are distributed in space. We begin by simulating the spatiotemporal dynamics of realistic mutualistic networks inhabiting spatial networks of habitat patches. We proceed by comparing the predicted patterns with the empirical results of a set of pollination networks in isolated hills of the Argentinian Pampas. We first find that one needs to sample up to five times as much area to record interactions as would be needed to sample the same proportion of species. Secondly, we find that peripheral patches have fewer interactions and harbour less nested networks - therefore potentially less resilient communities - compared to central patches. Our results highlight the important role played by the structure of dispersal routes on the spatial distribution of community patterns. This may help to understand the formation of biodiversity hot spots. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

  7. Cosmicflows-3: Cold Spot Repeller?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Courtois, Hélène M.; Graziani, Romain; Dupuy, Alexandra [University of Lyon, UCB Lyon 1, CNRS/IN2P3, IPN, Lyon (France); Tully, R. Brent [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Hoffman, Yehuda [Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, 91904 (Israel); Pomarède, Daniel [Institut de Recherche sur les Lois Fondamentales de l’Univers, CEA, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2017-09-20

    The three-dimensional gravitational velocity field within z ∼ 0.1 has been modeled with the Wiener filter methodology applied to the Cosmicflows-3 compilation of galaxy distances. The dominant features are a basin of attraction and two basins of repulsion. The major basin of attraction is an extension of the Shapley concentration of galaxies. One basin of repulsion, the Dipole Repeller, is located near the anti-apex of the cosmic microwave background dipole. The other basin of repulsion is in the proximate direction toward the “Cold Spot” irregularity in the cosmic microwave background. It has been speculated that a vast void might contribute to the amplitude of the Cold Spot from the integrated Sachs–Wolfe effect.

  8. Portfolio optimization in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Min; Wu, Felix F.

    2007-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, Generation companies (Gencos) face price risk and delivery risk that affect their profitability. Risk management is an important and essential part in the Genco's decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is considered. The problem of energy allocation between spot markets and bilateral contracts is formulated as a general portfolio optimization problem with a risk-free asset and n risky assets. Historical data of the PJM electricity market are used to demonstrate the approach. (author)

  9. Propulsion options for the HI SPOT long endurance drone airship. Final report, November 1978-August 1979

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marcy, W.L.; Hookway, R.O.

    1979-09-15

    Airbreathing, monofueled, stored-energy, and solar-rechargeable propulsion systems have been studied for the HI SPOT Long Endurance Drone Airship, providing constant-level electrical power as well as variable aerodynamic thrust to maintain position in winds varying from 15 to 100 knots at high altitude. A hydrogen fueled airbreathing engine is optimum for mission lengths up to 30 days or more.

  10. 7 CFR 28.415 - Low Middling Light Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Low Middling Light Spotted Color. 28.415 Section 28... Spotted Color. Low Middling Light Spotted Color is color which in spot or color, or both, is between Low Middling Color and Low Middling Spotted Color. ...

  11. 7 CFR 28.411 - Good Middling Light Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Good Middling Light Spotted Color. 28.411 Section 28... Light Spotted Color. Good Middling Light Spotted Color is color which in spot or color, or both, is between Good Middling Color and Good Middling Spotted Color. ...

  12. 7 CFR 28.413 - Middling Light Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Middling Light Spotted Color. 28.413 Section 28.413... Spotted Color. Middling Light Spotted Color is color which in spot or color, or both, is between Middling Color and Middling Spotted Color. ...

  13. 7 CFR 28.412 - Strict Middling Light Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Strict Middling Light Spotted Color. 28.412 Section 28... Light Spotted Color. Strict Middling Light Spotted Color is color which in spot or color, or both, is between Strict Middling Color and Strict Middling Spotted Color. ...

  14. Electricity derivatives and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, S.J. [School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332-0205 (United States); Oren, S.S. [Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2006-05-15

    Electricity spot prices in the emerging power markets are volatile, a consequence of the unique physical attributes of electricity production and distribution. Uncontrolled exposure to market price risks can lead to devastating consequences for market participants in the restructured electricity industry. Lessons learned from the financial markets suggest that financial derivatives, when well understood and properly utilized, are beneficial to the sharing and controlling of undesired risks through properly structured hedging strategies. We review different types of electricity financial instruments and the general methodology for utilizing and pricing such instruments. In particular, we highlight the roles of these electricity derivatives in mitigating market risks and structuring hedging strategies for generators, load serving entities, and power marketers in various risk management applications. Finally, we conclude by pointing out the existing challenges in current electricity markets for increasing the breadth, liquidity and use of electricity derivatives for achieving economic efficiency. (author)

  15. Computed tomography angiography spot sign predicts intraprocedural aneurysm rupture in subarachnoid hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhardt, Jan-Karl; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Stienen, Martin Nikolaus; Schöni, Daniel; Fung, Christian; Roethlisberger, Michel; Corniola, Marco Vincenzo; Bervini, David; Maduri, Rodolfo; Valsecchi, Daniele; Tok, Sina; Schatlo, Bawarjan; Bijlenga, Philippe; Schaller, Karl; Bozinov, Oliver; Regli, Luca

    2017-07-01

    To analyze whether the computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign predicts the intraprocedural rupture rate and outcome in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). From a prospective nationwide multicenter registry database, 1023 patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) were analyzed retrospectively. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis were used to compare spot sign-positive and -negative patients with aneurysmal intracerebral hemorrhage (aICH) for baseline characteristics, aneurysmal and ICH imaging characteristics, treatment and admission status as well as outcome at discharge and 1-year follow-up (1YFU) using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). A total of 218 out of 1023 aSAH patients (21%) presented with aICH including 23/218 (11%) patients with spot sign. Baseline characteristics were comparable between spot sign-positive and -negative patients. There was a higher clip-to-coil ratio in patients with than without aICH (both spot sign positive and negative). Median aICH volume was significantly higher in the spot sign-positive group (50 ml, 13-223 ml) than in the spot sign-negative group (18 ml, 1-416; p sign-positive aICH thus were three times as likely as those with spot sign-negative aICH to show an intraoperative aneurysm rupture [odds ratio (OR) 3.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-8.92, p = 0.046]. Spot sign-positive aICH patients showed a significantly worse mRS at discharge (p = 0.039) than patients with spot sign-negative aICH (median mRS 5 vs. 4). Logistic regression analysis showed that the spot sign was an aICH volume-dependent predictor for outcome. Both spot sign-positive and -negative aICH patients showed comparable rates of hospital death, death at 1YFU and mRS at 1YFU. In this multicenter data analysis, patients with spot sign-positive aICH showed higher aICH volumes and a higher rate of intraprocedural aneurysm rupture, but comparable long-term outcome to spot sign-negative a

  16. Stabilization of electron beam spot size by self bias potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwan, T.J.T.; Moir, D.C.; Snell, C.M.; Kang, M.

    1998-01-01

    In high resolution flash x-ray imaging technology the electric field developed between the electron beam and the converter target is large enough to draw ions from the target surface. The ions provide fractional neutralization and cause the electron beam to focus radially inward, and the focal point subsequently moves upstream due to the expansion of the ion column. A self-bias target concept is proposed and verified via computer simulation that the electron charge deposited on the target can generate an electric potential, which can effectively limit the ion motion and thereby stabilize the growth of the spot size. A target chamber using the self bias target concept was designed and tested in the Integrated Test Stand (ITS). The authors have obtained good agreement between computer simulation and experiment

  17. Spot volume nearly 5 million lbs; restricted price hits $11.00

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in March 1995 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. The 40 transactions made for the month are described separately for each market. Deals made in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and enrichment markets are further detailed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

  18. Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shunxi Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential demand of battery electric vehicle (BEV is the base of the decision-making to the government policy formulation, enterprise manufacture capacity expansion, and charging infrastructure construction. How to predict the future amount of BEV accurately is very important to the development of BEV both in practice and in theory. The present paper tries to compare the short-term accuracy of a proposed modified Bass model and Lotka-Volterra (LV model, by taking China’s BEV development as the case study. Using the statistics data of China’s BEV amount of 21 months from Jan 2015 to Sep 2016, we compare the simulation accuracy based on the value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and discuss the forecasting capacity of the two models according to China’s government expectation. According to the MAPE value, the two models have good prediction accuracy, but the Bass model is more accurate than LV model. Bass model has only one dimension and focuses on the diffusion trend, while LV model has two dimensions and mainly describes the relationship and competing process between the two populations. In future research, the forecasting advantages of Bass model and LV model should be combined to get more accurate predicting effect.

  19. Evaluation of the nugget diameter in spot welded joints between two steel sheets by means of a potential drop technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tohmyoh, Hironori; Ikarashi, Hidetomo; Matsui, Yoichi; Hasegawa, Yuta; Obara, Satoshi

    2015-08-01

    A potential drop technique which utilizes the electrical circuit used in resistance spot welding is reported. Spot welded samples comprising two steel sheets were inserted between the two Cu electrodes and a constant direct current was supplied between the electrodes. The potential drop between two points, one on each electrode, was determined by analysis for various values of nugget diameter and various values of the contact resistance between the Cu electrodes and the steel sheet sample. The nugget diameter of the spot welded joint could be quantitatively evaluated from the measured potential drop and the equation obtained from the analysis.

  20. HUBBLE FINDS NEW DARK SPOT ON NEPTUNE

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    NASA's Hubble Space Telescope has discovered a new great dark spot, located in the northern hemisphere of the planet Neptune. Because the planet's northern hemisphere is now tilted away from Earth, the new feature appears near the limb of the planet. The spot is a near mirror-image to a similar southern hemisphere dark spot that was discovered in 1989 by the Voyager 2 probe. In 1994, Hubble showed that the southern dark spot had disappeared. Like its predecessor, the new spot has high altitude clouds along its edge, caused by gasses that have been pushed to higher altitudes where they cool to form methane ice crystal clouds. The dark spot may be a zone of clear gas that is a window to a cloud deck lower in the atmosphere. Planetary scientists don t know how long lived this new feature might be. Hubble's high resolution will allow astronomers to follow the spot's evolution and other unexpected changes in Neptune's dynamic atmosphere. The image was taken on November 2, 1994 with Hubble's Wide Field Planetary Camera 2, when Neptune was 2.8 billion miles (4.5 billion kilometers) from Earth. Hubble can resolve features as small as 625 miles (1,000 kilometers) across in Neptune's cloud tops. Credit: H. Hammel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and NASA

  1. Electricity production of Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Czodor, T.

    2003-01-01

    Here is examined the spatial structure of electric energy production divided in hydropower plants (through-flow and re-pumping), thermal power plants as the most expensive way of electric energy production and nuclear power plants where high difficulty and long-term realisation of construction projects and spent financial resources are pointed out. Work describes present structure of electric energy production and consumption and refers to alternative electric energy sources

  2. Pink Spot - Literature Review and Case Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petel, Roy; Fuks, Anna

    Pink spots in teeth were first described by Mummery in 1920, and were related to resorption. Resorption is a pathologic process that often eludes the clinician with its varied etiologic factors and diverse clinical presentations. Resorption can be generally classified as internal and external resorption. Internal resorption has been described as a rare occurrence as compared to external resorption. This article describes a pink spot that was diagnosed as a progressing resorption process. Early diagnosis enabled a successful management of the lesion. Early diagnosis and treatment of an internal resorption, clinically seen as a pink spot, in a primary central incisor may prevent its fast progress and subsequent loss.

  3. Electric vehicles and renewable energy in the transport sector - energy system consequences. Main focus: Battery electric vehicles and hydrogen based fuel cell vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, L.H.; Joergensen, K.

    2000-04-01

    The aim of the project is to analyse energy, environmental and economic aspects of integrating electric vehicles in the future Danish energy system. Consequences of large-scale utilisation of electric vehicles are analysed. The aim is furthermore to illustrate the potential synergistic interplay between the utilisation of electric vehicles and large-scale utilisation of fluctuating renewable energy resources, such as wind power. Economic aspects for electric vehicles interacting with a liberalised electricity market are analysed. The project focuses on battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles based on hydrogen. Based on assumptions on the future technical development for battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles on hydrogen, and for the conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, scenarios are set up to reflect expected options for the long-term development of road transport vehicles. Focus is put on the Danish fleet of passenger cars and delivery vans. The scenario analysis includes assumptions on market potential developments and market penetration for the alternative vehicles. Vehicle replacement rates in the Danish transport fleet and the size of fleet development are based on data from The Danish Road Directorate. The electricity supply system development assumed is based on the Danish energy plan, Energy 21, The Plan scenario. The time horizon of the analysis is year 2030. Results from the scenario analysis include the time scales involved for the potential transition towards electricity based vehicles, the fleet composition development, the associated developments in transport fuel consumption and fuel substitution, and the potential CO 2 -emission reduction achievable in the overall transport and power supply system. Detailed model simulations, on an hourly basis, have furthermore been carried out for year 2005 that address potential electricity purchase options for electric vehicles in the context of a liberalised electricity market. The

  4. Methodology and software to detect viral integration site hot-spots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Namshin

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Modern gene therapy methods have limited control over where a therapeutic viral vector inserts into the host genome. Vector integration can activate local gene expression, which can cause cancer if the vector inserts near an oncogene. Viral integration hot-spots or 'common insertion sites' (CIS are scrutinized to evaluate and predict patient safety. CIS are typically defined by a minimum density of insertions (such as 2-4 within a 30-100 kb region, which unfortunately depends on the total number of observed VIS. This is problematic for comparing hot-spot distributions across data sets and patients, where the VIS numbers may vary. Results We develop two new methods for defining hot-spots that are relatively independent of data set size. Both methods operate on distributions of VIS across consecutive 1 Mb 'bins' of the genome. The first method 'z-threshold' tallies the number of VIS per bin, converts these counts to z-scores, and applies a threshold to define high density bins. The second method 'BCP' applies a Bayesian change-point model to the z-scores to define hot-spots. The novel hot-spot methods are compared with a conventional CIS method using simulated data sets and data sets from five published human studies, including the X-linked ALD (adrenoleukodystrophy, CGD (chronic granulomatous disease and SCID-X1 (X-linked severe combined immunodeficiency trials. The BCP analysis of the human X-linked ALD data for two patients separately (774 and 1627 VIS and combined (2401 VIS resulted in 5-6 hot-spots covering 0.17-0.251% of the genome and containing 5.56-7.74% of the total VIS. In comparison, the CIS analysis resulted in 12-110 hot-spots covering 0.018-0.246% of the genome and containing 5.81-22.7% of the VIS, corresponding to a greater number of hot-spots as the data set size increased. Our hot-spot methods enable one to evaluate the extent of VIS clustering, and formally compare data sets in terms of hot-spot overlap

  5. Short-term transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation reduces pain and improves the masticatory muscle activity in temporomandibular disorder patients: a randomized controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula de Lima FERREIRA

    Full Text Available Abstract Studies to assess the effects of therapies on pain and masticatory muscle function are scarce. Objective To investigate the short-term effect of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS by examining pain intensity, pressure pain threshold (PPT and electromyography (EMG activity in patients with temporomandibular disorder (TMD. Material and Methods Forty patients with myofascial TMD were enrolled in this randomized placebo-controlled trial and were divided into two groups: active (n=20 and placebo (n=20 TENS. Outcome variables assessed at baseline (T0, immediately after (T2 and 48 hours after treatment (T1 were: pain intensity with the aid of a visual analogue scale (VAS; PPT of masticatory and cervical structures; EMG activity during mandibular rest position (MR, maximal voluntary contraction (MVC and habitual chewing (HC. Two-way ANOVA for repeated measures was applied to the data and the significance level was set at 5%. Results There was a decrease in the VAS values at T1 and T2 when compared with T0 values in the active TENS group (p<0.050. The PPT between-group differences were significant at T1 assessment of the anterior temporalis and sternocleidomastoid (SCM and T2 for the masseter and the SCM (p<0.050. A significant EMG activity reduction of the masseter and anterior temporalis was presented in the active TENS during MR at T1 assessment when compared with T0 (p<0.050. The EMG activity of the anterior temporalis was significantly higher in the active TENS during MVC at T1 and T2 when compared with placebo (p<0.050. The EMG activity of the masseter and anterior temporalis muscle was significantly higher in the active TENS during HC at T1 when compared with placebo (p<0.050. Conclusions The short-term therapeutic effects of TENS are superior to those of the placebo, because of reported facial pain, deep pain sensitivity and masticatory muscle EMG activity improvement.

  6. Wholesale electricity markets in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rios, J. L.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity Wholesale Markets provide efficient operation of power stations, facilitate hedging instruments for generators and retailers and deliver price signals for new investments. Despite having a common regulatory framework at European level whose last aim is a single electricity market, Wholesale markets have been unevenly developed in each Member State. The evolution form a spot-based market towards a forward-based market needs a certain level of liquidity, transparency and regulatory stability. Interconnections are the key element to promote the integration of electricity markets. To facilitate this, European Regional Initiatives have pushed regulatory harmonization between countries and market coupling projects. (Author)

  7. Asparagus Beetle and Spotted Asparagus Beetle

    OpenAIRE

    Hodgson, Erin W.; Drost, Dan

    2007-01-01

    Asparagus beetle, Crioceris asparagi, and spotted asparagus beetle, C. duodecimpunctata are leaf beetles in the family Chrysomelidae. These beetles feed exclusively on asparagus and are native to Europe. Asparagus beetle is the more economically injurious of the two species.

  8. Detecting Blind Spot By Using Ultrasonic Sensor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Ajay

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Safety remains a top concern for automobile industries and new-car shoppers. Detection of Blind Spots is a major concern for safety issues. So automobiles have been constantly updating their products with new technologies to detect blind spots so that they can add more safety to the vehicle and also reduce the road accidents. Almost 1.5 million people die in road accidents each year. Blind spot of an automobile is the region of the vehicle which cannot be observed properly while looking either through side or rear mirror view. To meet the above requirements this paper describes detecting blind spot by using ultrasonic sensor and controlling the direction of car by automatic steering. The technology embedded in the system is capable of automatically steer the vehicle away from an obstacle if the system determines that a collision is impending or if the vehicle is in the vicinity of our car.

  9. How Many Spots Does a Cheetah Have?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Kristine M.

    2000-01-01

    Describes first grade students' mathematical investigation of the number of spots on a cheetah. The exploration of counting and estimation strategies that grew from the investigation gives evidence that mathematicians come in all ages. (ASK)

  10. A telemetry experiment on spotted grunter Pomadasys ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    associated fish in South Africa was investigated by conducting a tracking experiment on spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii in the East Kleinemonde Estuary. The telemetry equipment comprised two VEMCO V8 transmitters and a ...

  11. Measuring microfocus focal spots using digital radiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fry, David A [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Measurement of microfocus spot size can be important for several reasons: (1) Quality assurance during manufacture of microfocus tubes; (2) Tracking performance and stability of microfocus tubes; (3) Determining magnification (especially important for digital radiography where the native spatial resolution of the digital system is not adequate for the application); (4) Knowledge of unsharpness from the focal spot alone. The European Standard EN 12543-5 is based on a simple geometrical method of calculating focal spot size from unsharpness of high magnification film radiographs. When determining microfocus focal spot dimensions using unsharpness measurements both signal-to-noise (SNR) and magnification can be important. There is a maximum accuracy that is a function of SNR and therefore an optimal magnification. Greater than optimal magnification can be used but it will not increase accuracy.

  12. Modeling heterogeneous high explosive burn with an explicit hot-spot process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, P.K.; Johnson, J.N.; Forest, C.A.

    1985-01-01

    We present a method of treating high explosive burn with a multi-step process which includes the hot-spot excitation, decomposition, and the propagation of reaction into the region outside the hot spots. The basic features of this model are the separation of the thermal-mechanical and chemical processes, and the partition of the explosive into hot spots and the region exclusive of the hot spots. The thermal-mechanical aspects are formulated in a way similar to the chemical process. The combined processes lead to a set of rate equations for the mass fractions of reactants, intermediate states, and final products. The rates are expressed initially in terms of general characteristic times, but with specific phenomenological correlations introduced in the final model. Computational examples are given of simulated flyer plate impacts, short-shock initiation, corner turning, and shock desensitization. 19 refs., 9 figs.

  13. X-ray spot film device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pury, T.; Tsen, M.L.S.; Gray, F.L.; Stehr, R.E.; Konle, R.L.

    1981-01-01

    Improvements are described in an X-ray spot film device which is used in conjunction with an X-ray table to make a selected number of radiographic exposures on a single film and to perform fluoroscopic examinations. To date, the spot film devices consist of two X-ray field defining masks, one of which is moved manually. The present device is more convenient to use and speeds up the procedure. (U.K.)

  14. Raman spectroelectrochemistry of molecules within individual electromagnetic hot spots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shegai, Timur; Vaskevich, Alexander; Rubinstein, Israel; Haran, Gilad

    2009-10-14

    The role of chemical enhancement in surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) remains a contested subject. We study SERS spectra of 4-mercaptopyridine molecules excited far from the molecular resonance, which are collected from individual electromagnetic hot spots at concentrations close to the single-molecule limit. The hot spots are created by depositing Tollen's silver island films on a transparent electrode incorporated within an electrochemical cell. Analysis of the intensity of the spectra relative to those obtained from individual rhodamine 6G molecules on the same surface provides a lower limit of approximately 3 orders of magnitude for the chemical enhancement. This large enhancement is likely to be due to a charge transfer resonance involving the transfer of an electron from the metal to an adsorbed molecule. Excitation at three different wavelengths, as well as variation of electrode potential from 0 to -1.2 V, lead to significant changes in the relative intensities of bands in the spectrum. It is suggested that while the bulk of the enhancement is due to an Albrecht A-term resonance Raman effect (involving the charge transfer transition), vibronic coupling provides additional enhancement which is sensitive to electrode potential. The measurement of potential-dependent SERS spectra from individual hot spots opens the way to a thorough characterization of chemical enhancement, as well to studies of redox phenomena at the single-molecule level.

  15. Metallography of Battery Resistance Spot Welds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, J. E.; Johannes, L. B.; Gonzalez, D.; Yayathi, S.; Figuered, J. M.; Darcy, E. C.; Bilc, Z. M.

    2015-01-01

    Li-ion cells provide an energy dense solution for systems that require rechargeable electrical power. However, these cells can undergo thermal runaway, the point at which the cell becomes thermally unstable and results in hot gas, flame, electrolyte leakage, and in some cases explosion. The heat and fire associated with this type of event is generally violent and can subsequently cause damage to the surrounding system or present a dangerous risk to the personnel nearby. The space flight environment is especially sensitive to risks particularly when it involves potential for fire within the habitable volume of the International Space Station (ISS). In larger battery packs such as Robonaut 2 (R2), numerous Li-ion cells are placed in parallel-series configurations to obtain the required stack voltage and desired run-time or to meet specific power requirements. This raises a second and less obvious concern for batteries that undergo certification for space flight use: the joining quality at the resistance spot weld of battery cells to component wires/leads and battery tabs, bus bars or other electronic components and assemblies. Resistance spot welds undergo materials evaluation, visual inspection, conductivity (resistivity) testing, destructive peel testing, and metallurgical examination in accordance with applicable NASA Process Specifications. Welded components are cross-sectioned to ensure they are free of cracks or voids open to any exterior surface. Pore and voids contained within the weld zone but not open to an exterior surface, and are not determined to have sharp notch like characteristics, shall be acceptable. Depending on requirements, some battery cells are constructed of aluminum canisters while others are constructed of steel. Process specific weld schedules must be developed and certified for each possible joining combination. The aluminum canisters' positive terminals were particularly difficult to weld due to a bi-metal strip that comes ultrasonically

  16. Thermal Wave Imaging: Flying SPOT Camera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiqian

    1993-01-01

    A novel "Flying Spot" infrared camera for nondestructive evaluation (NDE) and nondestructive characterization is presented. The camera scans the focal point of an unmodulated heating laser beam across the sample in a raster. The detector of the camera tracks the heating spot in the same raster, but with a time delay. The detector is thus looking at the "thermal wake" of the heating spot. The time delay between heating and detection is determined by the speed of the laser spot and the distance between it and the detector image. Since this time delay can be made arbitrarily small, the camera is capable of making thermal wave images of phenomena which occur on a very short time scale. In addition, because the heat source is a very small spot, the heat flow is fully three-dimensional. This makes the camera system sensitive to features, like tightly closed vertical cracks, which are invisible to imaging systems which employ full-field heating. A detailed theory which relates the temperature profile around the heating spot to the sample thermal properties is also described. The camera represents a potentially useful tool for measuring thermal diffusivities of materials by means of fitting the recorded temperature profiles to the theoretical curves with the diffusivity as a fitting parameter.

  17. Allocation of thermoelectric units in short term in large scale electric power systems; Asignacion de unidades termoelectricas a corto plazo en sistemas electricos de potencia de gran escala

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guillen Moya, Isaias

    1987-08-01

    A method is presented to solve the problem of allocation of thermoelectric units in large scale electric power systems. The problem consists in determining which generating units have to be programmed to enter or to leave the operation during the intervals of the planning horizon in such a way that are satisfied at a minimum cost, and in a reliable form, the foretold demand of electric power and the physical and operative restrictions of the power system components. The method is made up of two stages: the first stage finds a feasible initial solution of thermoelectrical units by means of heuristic methods. The second stage produces a solution from a state of feasible initial allocation. The operation cost is reduced applying dynamic programming in subsequent approaches, in such a way that the product of each interaction constitutes the state of allocation of least cost found until that stage. The of search range for the optimal solution is reduced by applying technical of lagrangean relaxation to select solely the units that have the greater potential to reduce the operation cost. The algorithm is validated using a representative system of the Interconnected National System, that consists of 108 thermoelectrical units grouped in 7 groups of generation, for a planning horizon of one week divided into hourly intervals, containing 18,144 discreet variables, 18,144 continuous variables and 39,024 restrictions. In a VAX 11/780 computer the problem is solved in 55 of CPU minutes with an estimation of the 1.02% of sub-optimality that indicates how close it is of the optimal solution. The main contributions of this thesis are within the short term operation planning of the electric power systems which are: (1) The development of a heuristic-mathematical algorithm to solve the problem of allocation of thermoelectric units in large scale electric power systems, in relatively short execution time. The algorithm efficiently conjugates of lagrangean relaxation technical

  18. Development and validation of an HPLC-MS/MS method for the analysis of dexamethasone from pig synovial fluid using dried matrix spotting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, Chad D; Laine, Derek F; Zimmer, Jennifer Sd; Johnson, Casey Jl; Sheaff, Chrystal N; Carpenter, Anna; Needham, Shane R

    2010-11-01

    Dried matrix spot techniques were employed to validate an HPLC-MS/MS assay for the determination of dexamethasone in clear Yorkshire pig synovial fluid using 15 µl of sample. We have adopted the term dried matrix spot to indicate that the techniques used for dried blood spots can be applied to nonblood matrices. The dried matrix spot method employs a color-indicating process developed at Alturas Analytics that enhances the ability to analyze transparent fluids spotted onto collection paper by allowing the analyst to visually verify the location of the dried sample spot. The method was shown to be accurate (±4.3%) and precise (14.2% at the LLOQ and ≤10.0% at all other concentrations) across the dynamic range of the assay. The method shows the potential application of dried matrix spot techniques for the analysis of transparent biological fluids.

  19. Fungicide Efficacy in Peach Rusty Spot Control in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nenad Dolovac

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Rusty Spot has long been known as a harmful peach disease in many parts of the world. During the past several years, rusty spot infection of the late-maturing peach cultivars (Summerset, Suncrest, Fayette and O’Henry caused significant yield losses in Serbia.Although the etiology of the disease is still unknown, there are numerous studies attempting to set a strategy for its control and recommend appropriate chemical and other peach protection methods. However, because of specific environmental conditions in Serbia, recommended protection method using repeated fungicide treatments, starting from petal fall, did not prove to be efficient and the rate of infection in some susceptible peach cultivars reached 100%. In 2003 and 2004 a field trial was conducted in order to test the efficacy of fungicides (a.i. kresoxim-methyl, flusilazole and sulfur for the efficient control of Rusty Spot epidemics. The trial was carried out under conditions of natural infection on the peach cv. Summerset at the locality of Bela Crkva, Serbia. In the ntreated control plots,high disease incidence was recorded with the percentage of affected fruit surface ranging from 33.5% in the first, up to the 35.4% in the second year of the trail. Among fungicides included in the trial, kresoxim-methyl proved to be the most efficient (90.25% in the first and 91.12% in the second year of the trial, flusilazole exhibited lower efficacy (87.28% and 80.61%, respectively while sulfur was the least efficient 82.33% and 80.30%, respectively. Determination of the most efficient fungicide for the peach rusty spot control in Serbia provides basic nformation for further investigations which will include optimization of treatment terms, as well as additional agro-technical control measures.

  20. Vacuum arc cathode spot motion in oblique magnetic fields: An interpretation of the Robson experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beilis, I. I. [Electrical Discharge and Plasma Laboratory, School of Electrical Engineering, Fleischman Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv University, P.O.B. 39040, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel)

    2016-09-15

    A model was developed of vacuum arc cathode spot motion in a magnetic field that obliquely intercepts the cathode surface. The model takes into account a force under an electric field caused by retrograde spot motion across the normal component of the magnetic field, producing a drift velocity component in the direction of the acute angle between the magnetic field and the cathode surface. The relationship between velocity of the retrograde direction and drift velocity of the cathode spot motion to the acute angle was developed. The dependencies of the drift angle θ on the acute angle φ, magnetic field strength B, and arc current I were calculated. It was found that the calculated θ increased with φ, B, and I in accordance with Robson's measurements.

  1. Prospects for the medium- and long-term development of China`s electric power industry and analysis of the potential market for superconductivity technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Z. [Bob Lawrence and Associates, Inc., Alexandria, VA (United States)

    1998-05-01

    First of all, overall economic growth objectives in China are concisely and succinctly specified in this report. Secondly, this report presents a forecast of energy supply and demand for China`s economic growth for 2000--2050. In comparison with the capability of energy construction in China in the future, a gap between supply and demand is one of the important factors hindering the sustainable development of Chain`s economy. The electric power industry is one of China`s most important industries. To adopt energy efficiency through high technology and utilizing energy adequately is an important technological policy for the development of China`s electric power industry in the future. After briefly describing the achievements of China`s electric power industry, this report defines the target areas and policies for the development of hydroelectricity and nuclear electricity in the 2000s in China, presents the strategic position of China`s electric power industry as well as objectives and relevant plans of development for 2000--2050. This report finds that with the discovery of superconducting electricity, the discovery of new high-temperature superconducting (HTS) materials, and progress in materials techniques, the 21st century will be an era of superconductivity. Applications of superconductivity in the energy field, such as superconducting storage, superconducting transmission, superconducting transformers, superconducting motors, its application in Magneto-Hydro-Dynamics (MHD), as well as in nuclear fusion, has unique advantages. Its market prospects are quite promising. 12 figs.

  2. Possible recombinogenic effect of caprolactam in the mammalian spot test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahrig, R

    1989-11-01

    Tests of caprolactam in the mouse spot test showed that treatment with this compound increased the frequency of color spots among animals treated in utero. The nature of these spots suggests that caprolactam may induce spots through the induction of mitotic recombination.

  3. 7 CFR 28.423 - Middling Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Middling Spotted Color. 28.423 Section 28.423... REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSING, TESTING, AND STANDARDS Standards Spotted Cotton § 28.423 Middling Spotted Color. Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples in the custody of...

  4. Characterization and genetic dissection of resistance to spotted alfalfa aphid (Therioaphis trifolii) in Medicago truncatula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamphuis, Lars G.; Lichtenzveig, Judith; Peng, Kefan; Guo, Su-Min; Klingler, John P.

    2013-01-01

    Aphids cause significant yield losses in agricultural crops worldwide. Medicago truncatula, a model legume, cultivated pasture species in Australia and close relative of alfalfa (Medicago sativa), was used to study the defence response against Therioaphis trifolii f. maculate [spotted alfalfa aphid (SAA)]. Aphid performance and plant damage were compared among three accessions. A20 is highly susceptible, A17 has moderate resistance, and Jester is strongly resistant. Subsequent analyses using A17 and A20, reciprocal F1s and an A17×A20 recombinant inbred line (RIL) population revealed that this moderate resistance is phloem mediated and involves antibiosis and tolerance but not antixenosis. Electrical penetration graph analysis also identified a novel waveform termed extended potential drop, which occurred following SAA infestation of M. truncatula. Genetic dissection using the RIL population revealed three quantitative trait loci on chromosomes 3, 6, and 7 involved in distinct modes of aphid defence including antibiosis and tolerance. An antibiosis locus resides on linkage group 3 (LG3) and is derived from A17, whereas a plant tolerance and antibiosis locus resides on LG6 and is derived from A20, which exhibits strong temporary tolerance. The loci identified reside in regions harbouring classical resistance genes, and introgression of these loci in current medic cultivars may help provide durable resistance to SAA, while elucidation of their molecular mechanisms may provide valuable insight into other aphid–plant interactions. PMID:24058162

  5. Characterization and genetic dissection of resistance to spotted alfalfa aphid (Therioaphis trifolii) in Medicago truncatula

    KAUST Repository

    Kamphuis, L. G.

    2013-09-21

    Aphids cause significant yield losses in agricultural crops worldwide. Medicago truncatula, a model legume, cultivated pasture species in Australia and close relative of alfalfa (Medicago sativa), was used to study the defence response against Therioaphis trifolii f. maculate [spotted alfalfa aphid (SAA)]. Aphid performance and plant damage were compared among three accessions. A20 is highly susceptible, A17 has moderate resistance, and Jester is strongly resistant. Subsequent analyses using A17 and A20, reciprocal F1s and an A17×A20 recombinant inbred line (RIL) population revealed that this moderate resistance is phloem mediated and involves antibiosis and tolerance but not antixenosis. Electrical penetration graph analysis also identified a novel waveform termed extended potential drop, which occurred following SAA infestation of M. truncatula. Genetic dissection using the RIL population revealed three quantitative trait loci on chromosomes 3, 6, and 7 involved in distinct modes of aphid defence including antibiosis and tolerance. An antibiosis locus resides on linkage group 3 (LG3) and is derived from A17, whereas a plant tolerance and antibiosis locus resides on LG6 and is derived from A20, which exhibits strong temporary tolerance. The loci identified reside in regions harbouring classical resistance genes, and introgression of these loci in current medic cultivars may help provide durable resistance to SAA, while elucidation of their molecular mechanisms may provide valuable insight into other aphid–plant interactions.

  6. Electrical deregulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, R.

    2001-01-01

    Deregulation in the electricity sector took effect on January 1, 2001 in Alberta. Business consumers discovered that their electricity rates had almost doubled in a one-month period. The government argued that it was the case of short term pain for long term gain. The intent of the deregulation is the lowering of prices through competition. This principle applies when the supply meets the demand, but when the demand exceeds the supply, prices increase. When initial plans were made for the deregulation of the sector, utilities did not invest huge amounts of capital to build new generation plants, as it was not known how they would fare in the deregulated environment. This situation was compounded by the fact that there was an economic boom around the same time in Alberta, adding to the demands made on the existing generation infrastructure (approximately 4 per cent per year over the past decade). At the moment, some resource developers such as Syncrude, Amoco, and Daishowa produce their own electricity and export their excess capacity to the provincial grid for general use. The rules of the deregulated market have been clarified and a number of utilities are planning new generation plants and facilities. TransAlta, EPCOR, and Enmax Corp. have announced plans to expand or build new coal-fired plants. Alberta has an estimated 35 billion tonnes of recoverable coal, and 25 million tonnes of coal were used in 1999 to produce 75 per cent of the electricity required in Alberta. Over the next ten years, 4,000 megawatts of new capacity is planned, representing a 50 per cent increase over current levels. AES Corporation, a Virginia power giant, has also announced plans to build a generator in Alberta

  7. Failing electricity markets: should we shoot the pools?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, Richard

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the electricity reforms in California and in England and Wales. In both cases, a centralised spot market played a major role, and both markets have now been abolished. This paper argues that their disappearance is not evidence that future electricity restructuring should avoid the use of spot markets. Instead, the problems in England and Wales were largely due to market power. In California, problems arising from market power and a tightening demand-supply balance were turned into a disaster because the spot market had not been backed up by hedging contracts. (Author)

  8. Optimal Operation of Electric Vehicles in Competitive Electricity Markets and Its Impact on Distribution Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2011-01-01

    represent the future of electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system in this paper. The impact of the optimal operation strategy for electric vehicles together with the optimal load response to spot market price on the distribution power system with high wind power penetrations......Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the electricity price could be transferred to the consumers and they may make some optimal charge and discharge schedules for their electric vehicles in order to minimize their energy costs. This paper presents an optimal...... operation strategy for a Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) in relation to the hourly electricity price in order to achieve minimum energy costs of the PEV. The western Danish power system, which is currently the grid area in the world that has the largest share of wind power in its generation profiles and may...

  9. Effect of cattle exclosures on Columbia Spotted Frog abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher; Chambert, Thierry; Mccreary, Brome; Galvan, Stephanie; Rowe, Jennifer

    2018-01-01

    Livestock grazing is an important land use in the western USA and can have positive or negative effects on amphibians. Columbia Spotted Frog (Rana luteiventris) often use ponds that provide water for cattle. We conducted a long-term manipulative study on US Forest Service land in northeastern Oregon to determine the effects of full and partial exclosures that limited cattle access to ponds used by frogs. We found weak evidence of a short-term increase in abundance that did not differ between full and partial exclosures and that diminished with continuing exclusion of cattle. The benefit of exclosures was small relative to the overall decline in breeding numbers that we documented. This suggests that some protection can provide a short-term boost to populations.

  10. Fully Automatic Spot Welding System for Application in Automotive Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Puschner

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A Virtual Machine has led to a fully automatic spot welding system. All necessary parameters are created by measuring systems and algorithms running in the Virtual Machine. A hybrid operating circuit allows the Virtual Machine to read the exact process voltage between the tips of the electrodes every 50 µs. Actual welding voltage and current allow for the first time reading process impedance, electric power and total energy being transferred to the spot weld. Necessary energy input is calculated by a calorimetric model after measuring the total thickness of the materials to be welded as soon as the welding gun is positioned at the workpiece. A precision potentiometer implemented in the gun delivers the total material thickness within the 0.1 mm range during the pre-pressure phases. The internal databank of the Virtual Machine controls all essential parameters to guide the total welding process. Special generator characteristics of the welding power unit are created by the Virtual Machine just during the upslope and the welding phases. So the process will be initialized in differentiating the kind of material, mild steel or high strengthen steel. This will affect the kind of energy input and current decrease during the upslope and downslope phases.

  11. Understanding and controlling hot spots of crime: the importance of formal and informal social controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisburd, David; Groff, Elizabeth R; Yang, Sue-Ming

    2014-02-01

    Primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention programs that address opportunity or structural factors related to crime are usually delivered to entire cities, sections of cities or to specific neighborhoods, but our results indicate geographically targeting these programs to specific street segments may increase their efficacy. We link crime incidents to over 24,000 street segments (the two block faces on a street between two intersections) over a 16-year period, and identify distinct developmental patterns of crime at street segments using group-based trajectory analysis. One of these patterns, which we term chronic crime hot spots, includes just 1 % of street segments but is associated with 23 % of crime in the city during the study period. We then employ multinomial regression to identify the specific risk and protective factors that are associated with these crime hot spots. We find that both situational opportunities and social characteristics of places strongly distinguish chronic crime hot spots from areas with little crime. Our findings support recent efforts to decrease crime opportunities at crime hot spots through programs like hot spots policing, but they also suggest that social interventions directed at crime hot spots will be important if we are to do something about crime problems in the long run. We argue in concluding that micro level programs which focus crime prevention efforts on specific street segments have the potential to be less costly and more effective than those targeted at larger areas such as communities or neighborhoods.

  12. Tests of fixity of the Indo-Atlantic hot spots relative to Pacific hot spots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivisto, Emilia A.; Andrews, David L.; Gordon, Richard G.

    2014-01-01

    Rates of inter-hot spot motion have been debated for decades. Herein we present updated predictions for the tracks of the Tristan da Cunha, Réunion, and Iceland hot spots assuming them to be fixed relative to Pacific hot spots. Uncertainties in Pacific hot spot rotations, which include uncertainties in the current locations of hot spots of 100-200 km, are combined with uncertainties in relative plate motions accumulated through the plate circuit to obtain the final uncertainty in the predicted positions (including uncertainties of 150-200 km in the current locations of the Indo-Atlantic hot spots). Improvements to reconstruction methods, to relative plate reconstructions, to age dates along the tracks, and to the geomagnetic reversal timescale lead to significant changes from prior results. When compared with the observed tracks, the predicted tracks indicate nominal rates of motion of only 2-6 mm a-1 of these Indo-Atlantic hot spots relative to Pacific hot spots over the past 48 Ma. Within the uncertainties, the rates range from no motion to rates as high as 8-13 mm a-1. For reconstructions prior to 48 Ma B.P., however, the apparent rates of inter-hot spot motion are much larger, 46-55 ± 20 mm a-1, if the motion occurred entirely between 68 Ma B.P. and 48 Ma B.P. Either hot spots moved rapidly before 48 Ma B.P., and slowed drastically at ≈ 48 Ma B.P., or global plate circuits through Antarctica become less reliable as one goes increasingly further into the past. Most paleomagnetic data favor the latter explanation.

  13. Real-time satellite monitoring of volcanic hot spots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.; Flynn, Luke P.; Dean, Ken; Pilger, Eric; Wooster, Martin; Okubo, Chris; Mouginis-Mark, Peter; Garbeil, Harold; Thornber, Carl; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Rothery, Dave; Wright, Robert

    Direct satellite data reception at high temporal frequencies and automated processing enable near-real-time, near-continuous thermal monitoring of volcanoes. We review what has been achieved in terms of turning this capability into real-time tools of use to volcano monitoring agencies. Current capabilities focus on 2 instruments: the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imager. Collection of lO AVHRR images per day covering Alaska, the Aleutians, and Kamchatka allows routine, on-reception analysis of volcanic hot spots across this region. Data collected between 1996 and 1998 detected 302 hot spots due to lava flows, lava domes, pyroclastic flows, fumaroles, and geothermally heated lakes at 12 different volcanoes. Information was used for hazard mitigation by the Alaskan Volcano Observatory. GOES provides data for North and South American volcanoes every 15-30 minutes. Automated processing allows eruption information and alerts to be posted on the Internet within 15-60 minutes of reception. We use June 1998 to demonstrate the frequency of data acquisition. During this month 2879 GOES images were collected from which 14,832 sub-images of 6 active volcanoes were processed. Although 82% (12,200) of these sub-images were cloud covered, hot spots were still evident on 11% (1634) of the sub-images. Analysis of GOES data for 1998 identified hot spots due to (1) lava flows at Kilauea and Cerro Azul, (2) dome extrusion and explosive activity at Lascar, Popocatepetl, Colima and Pacaya, and (3) dome cooling and collapse at Soufriere Hills. We were also able to suggest that reports of lava flow activity at Cerro Negro were false. This information was supplied to, and used by, various agencies whose task it is to monitor these volcanoes. Global thermal monitoring will become a reality with the launch of the Earth Observing System's moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS). An automated thermal

  14. Spot welding of aluminium alloy sheets to coated steel sheets. Kakushu mekki koban to arumi gokin no spot yosetsusei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inoue, S.; Fukumura, K.; Soga, S. (Nisshin Steel Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan))

    1994-03-31

    Welding aluminum alloy sheets with coated steel sheets has become used frequently in association with weight reduction in automobiles. This paper describes investigations on the effects of spot welding aluminum alloy sheets with different kinds of coated steel sheets on optimal welding conditions and weld strength. An AC single-phase spot welding machine was used for an experiment using an aluminum alloy(5052)with a thickness of 1 mm(referred to as A)and different coated steel sheets with a thickness of 0.8 mm(referred to as B). The result may be summarized as follows: the weldable value of the electric current is closer to that for between the B steel sheets than the middle of that for between the As and between Bs; while the weldable current range is affected little by the coating materials when a CF electrode is used, it grows greater in aluminum coated steel sheets and hot-dip galvanized steel sheets than in alloyed hot-dip galvanized steel sheets and cold-rolled steel sheets when an R-type electrode is used; influence of the coating materials was observed in tensile shear strength and cross tensile shear strength; and any combination of metals shows fatigue strength lower than that in the A-A combination in a fatigue test of cross tensile system. 5 refs., 12 figs., 6 tabs.

  15. Spotting Stellar Activity Cycles in Gaia Astrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Brett M.; Agol, Eric; Davenport, James R. A.; Hawley, Suzanne L.

    2018-03-01

    Astrometry from Gaia will measure the positions of stellar photometric centroids to unprecedented precision. We show that the precision of Gaia astrometry is sufficient to detect starspot-induced centroid jitter for nearby stars in the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) sample with magnetic activity similar to the young G-star KIC 7174505 or the active M4 dwarf GJ 1243, but is insufficient to measure centroid jitter for stars with Sun-like spot distributions. We simulate Gaia observations of stars with 10 year activity cycles to search for evidence of activity cycles, and find that Gaia astrometry alone likely can not detect activity cycles for stars in the TGAS sample, even if they have spot distributions like KIC 7174505. We review the activity of the nearby low-mass stars in the TGAS sample for which we anticipate significant detections of spot-induced jitter.

  16. Wind power feed-in impact on electricity prices in Germany 2009-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Benhmad

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Until quite recently no electricity system had faced the challenges associated with high penetrations of renewable energy sources (RES. In this paper, we carry out an empirical analysis for Germany, as a country with high penetration of wind energy, to investigate the well-known merit-order effect. Our main empirical findings suggest that the increasing share of wind power in-feed induces a decrease of electricity spot price level but an increase of spot prices volatility. Furthermore, the relationship between wind power and spot electricity prices can be strongly impacted by European electricity grids interconnection which behaves like a safety valve lowering volatility and limiting the price decrease. Therefore, the impacts of wind generated electricity on electricity spot markets are less clearly pronounced in interconnected systems.

  17. Surface erosion by electrical arcs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behrisch, R.

    1984-01-01

    The authors discuss traces of cathode spots from electrical arcs observed on the vessel walls of high temperature plasma experiments. They originate from short metal plasma discharges which can be ignited at the walls due to the Langmuir sheath potential in front of the walls and thus the hydrogen plasma acts as the anode. The arcs may also be caused by electrical potentials which are created by gradients in the plasma, by plasma motion or during disruptive plasma phases. The material eroded from the walls at the cathode spots contributes to impurity introduction into the hydrogen plasma. Further arcing is a critical issue in high intensity ion sources and in RF transmitters and antennas for plasma heating

  18. Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected European electricity markets. More specifically, it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in Germany during 2011. The short- and- long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices, from November 2009 to October 2012, in: APX-ENDEX, BELPEX, EPEX-DE, EPEX-FR, NORDPOOL, OMEL and SWISSIX; and wind power in the German system are analysed. Two MGARCH (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run, and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long-run behaviour of electricity spot prices. Results show: positive time-varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity; a negative association between wind power penetration in Germany and electricity spot prices in the German and neighbouring markets; and, for most markets, a decreasing speed in mean reversion. -- Highlights: •Associations between spot prices and wind power are time-varying. •Greater spot price and volatility associations across markets are observed. •In the long run, the German market is less integrated with neighbouring markets. •Policies on a local electricity mix can affect spot prices in connected markets

  19. Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, I.

    2004-01-01

    This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price movements, and offers a computationally efficient way of simulating spot prices. The thesis shows that the connection between spot prices and electricity forward prices is nontrivial because electricity is a commodity that must be consumed immediately. Consequently, forward prices of different times are based on the supply-demand conditions at those times. This thesis introduces a statistical model that captures the main characteristics of observed forward price movements. The thesis presents the pricing problems relating to the common Nordic electricity derivatives, as well as the pricing relations between electricity derivatives. The special characteristics of electricity make spot electricity market incomplete. The thesis assumes the existence of a risk-neutral martingale measure so that formal pricing results can be obtained. Some concepts introduced in financial markets are directly usable in the electricity markets. The risk management application in this thesis uses a static optimal portfolio selection framework where Monte Carlo simulation provides quantitative results. The application of mathematical finance requires careful consideration of the special characteristics of the electricity markets. Economic theory and reasoning have to be taken into account when constructing financial models in competitive electricity markets. (orig.)

  20. Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehvilaeinen, I.

    2004-07-01

    This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price movements, and offers a computationally efficient way of simulating spot prices. The thesis shows that the connection between spot prices and electricity forward prices is nontrivial because electricity is a commodity that must be consumed immediately. Consequently, forward prices of different times are based on the supply-demand conditions at those times. This thesis introduces a statistical model that captures the main characteristics of observed forward price movements. The thesis presents the pricing problems relating to the common Nordic electricity derivatives, as well as the pricing relations between electricity derivatives. The special characteristics of electricity make spot electricity market incomplete. The thesis assumes the existence of a risk-neutral martingale measure so that formal pricing results can be obtained. Some concepts introduced in financial markets are directly usable in the electricity markets. The risk management application in this thesis uses a static optimal portfolio selection framework where Monte Carlo simulation provides quantitative results. The application of mathematical finance requires careful consideration of the special characteristics of the electricity markets. Economic theory and reasoning have to be taken into account when constructing financial models in competitive electricity markets. (orig.)

  1. Sweet Spot Supersymmetry and Composite Messengers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibe, Masahiro; Kitano, Ryuichiro

    2007-01-01

    Sweet spot supersymmetry is a phenomenologically and cosmologically perfect framework to realize a supersymmetric world at short distance. We discuss a class of dynamical models of supersymmetry breaking and its mediation whose low-energy effective description falls into this framework. Hadron fields in the dynamical models play a role of the messengers of the supersymmetry breaking. As is always true in the models of the sweet spot supersymmetry, the messenger scale is predicted to be 10 5 GeV ∼ mess ∼ 10 GeV. Various values of the effective number of messenger fields N mess are possible depending on the choice of the gauge group

  2. Fast Keyword Spotting in Telephone Speech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nouza

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, we present a system designed for detecting keywords in telephone speech. We focus not only on achieving high accuracy but also on very short processing time. The keyword spotting system can run in three modes: a an off-line mode requiring less than 0.1xRT, b an on-line mode with minimum (2 s latency, and c a repeated spotting mode, in which pre-computed values allow for additional acceleration. Its performance is evaluated on recordings of Czech spontaneous telephone speech using rather large and complex keyword lists.

  3. Robust identification of binding hot spots using continuum electrostatics: application to hen egg-white lysozyme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, David H; Grove, Laurie E; Yueh, Christine; Ngan, Chi Ho; Kozakov, Dima; Vajda, Sandor

    2011-12-28

    Binding hot spots, protein regions with high binding affinity, can be identified by using X-ray crystallography or NMR spectroscopy to screen libraries of small organic molecules that tend to cluster at such hot spots. FTMap, a direct computational analogue of the experimental screening approaches, uses 16 different probe molecules for global sampling of the surface of a target protein on a dense grid and evaluates the energy of interaction using an empirical energy function that includes a continuum electrostatic term. Energy evaluation is based on the fast Fourier transform correlation approach, which allows for the sampling of billions of probe positions. The grid sampling is followed by off-grid minimization that uses a more detailed energy expression with a continuum electrostatics term. FTMap identifies the hot spots as consensus clusters formed by overlapping clusters of several probes. The hot spots are ranked on the basis of the number of probe clusters, which predicts their binding propensity. We applied FTMap to nine structures of hen egg-white lysozyme (HEWL), whose hot spots have been extensively studied by both experimental and computational methods. FTMap found the primary hot spot in site C of all nine structures, in spite of conformational differences. In addition, secondary hot spots in sites B and D that are known to be important for the binding of polysaccharide substrates were found. The predicted probe-protein interactions agree well with those seen in the complexes of HEWL with various ligands and also agree with an NMR-based study of HEWL in aqueous solutions of eight organic solvents. We argue that FTMap provides more complete information on the HEWL binding site than previous computational methods and yields fewer false-positive binding locations than the X-ray structures of HEWL from crystals soaked in organic solvents. © 2011 American Chemical Society

  4. Outcome of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation in chronic pain: short-term results of a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterhof, J.; Boo, T.M. de; Oostendorp, R.A.B.; Wilder-Smith, O.H.G.; Crul, B.J.P.

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study was to test the efficacy of shortterm transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) treatment in chronic pain with respect to pain intensity and patients' satisfaction with treatment results. We therefore performed a randomised controlled trial comparing TENS and sham

  5. Different mechanisms for the short-term effects of real versus sham transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) in patients with chronic pain: a pilot study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterhof, J.; Wilder-Smith, O.H.G.; Oostendorp, R.A.B.; Crul, B.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) has existed since the early 1970s. However, randomized placebo controlled studies show inconclusive results in the treatment of chronic pain. These results could be explained by assuming that TENS elicits a placebo response. However, in animal

  6. The Relationship Between Electricity Price and Wind Power Generation in Danish Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    of competitive electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. The relationship between the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price) and the wind power generation in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price, the down regulation price...... and the up regulation price generally decreases when the wind power penetration in the power system increases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price for different wind power penetration are analyzed. The findings of this paper may be useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal...... bidding strategy and may be also useful for the optimal operation of modern power systems with high wind power penetrations....

  7. A study of dynamic resistance during small scale resistance spot welding of thin Ni sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, W; Zhou, Y; Kerr, H W; Lawson, S

    2004-01-01

    The dynamic resistance has been investigated during small scale resistance spot welding (SSRSW) of Ni sheets. Electrical measurements have been correlated with scanning electron microscope images of joint development. The results show that the dynamic resistance curve can be divided into the following stages based on physical change in the workpieces: asperity heating, surface breakdown, asperity softening, partial surface melting, nugget growth and expulsion. These results are also compared and contrasted with dynamic resistance behaviour in large scale RSW

  8. The Similar and Dissimilar Spot Welding of 304 and 316L Austenitic Stainless Steels

    OpenAIRE

    ÇINAR, Özgür; ALYANAKOĞLU, Ahmet Erdem; ÇAKIR, Talha; ÇETİNER, Burcu Nilgün; TOPCU, İsmail; EKİCİ, Bülent; GÜLLÜOĞLU, Arif Nihat

    2017-01-01

    Being one of the eldest electric welding process, theresistance spot welding offers practical and time saving applications in thefield of joining metals of several manufacturing industries such as automotive,white goods and machinery. Even light weight metals, i.e. aluminum andmagnesium has lately been taking attention of researchers and producers, thesteels, especially austenitic stainless steels are still being used in widerange of applications due to their combination of excellent corrosio...

  9. Different approaches to supply adequacy in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosellon, J.

    2006-01-01

    There is a growing concern that liberalized electricity markets may not provide incentives for sufficient investment in generation capacity to meet future demand. This is problematic because electricity markets are characterized by short-term inelastic demand in which the long-term supply-demand balance cannot be achieved through a market-clearing price. Also, final consumers do not feel the need to engage in long-term contracts because they are usually isolated from spot prices by regulated tariffs. This paper presented some of the measures that have been proposed internationally to ensure a sufficient amount of generation capacity reserves. Measures such as strategic reserves, capacity payments, capacity requirements and call options were analyzed in terms of their degree of centralization or decentralization with regards to the amount of capacity and the price of capacity. Each one of these measures was analyzed in this paper to clarify their theoretical aspects as well as their international application and assessment. The analytical and practical strengths and weaknesses of each approach were discussed. Capacity payments and requirements alone were found to be inadequate both in theory and practice. It was suggested that capacity payments or requirements might work efficiently if combined with risk management approaches and hedging instruments that promote demand side participation. Regulatory intervention would then be focused on promoting rules that facilitate liquid markets for energy futures and risk management. 37 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  10. Analytical modeling of the temporal evolution of hot spot temperatures in silicon solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasmer, Sven; Rajsrima, Narong; Geisemeyer, Ino; Fertig, Fabian; Greulich, Johannes Michael; Rein, Stefan

    2018-03-01

    We present an approach to predict the equilibrium temperature of hot spots in crystalline silicon solar cells based on the analysis of their temporal evolution right after turning on a reverse bias. For this end, we derive an analytical expression for the time-dependent heat diffusion of a breakdown channel that is assumed to be cylindrical. We validate this by means of thermography imaging of hot spots right after turning on a reverse bias. The expression allows to be used to extract hot spot powers and radii from short-term measurements, targeting application in inline solar cell characterization. The extracted hot spot powers are validated at the hands of long-term dark lock-in thermography imaging. Using a look-up table of expected equilibrium temperatures determined by numerical and analytical simulations, we utilize the determined hot spot properties to predict the equilibrium temperatures of about 100 industrial aluminum back-surface field solar cells and achieve a high correlation coefficient of 0.86 and a mean absolute error of only 3.3 K.

  11. Transitional–turbulent spots and turbulent–turbulent spots in boundary layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaohua; Moin, Parviz; Wallace, James M.; Skarda, Jinhie; Lozano-Durán, Adrián; Hickey, Jean-Pierre

    2017-01-01

    Two observations drawn from a thoroughly validated direct numerical simulation of the canonical spatially developing, zero-pressure gradient, smooth, flat-plate boundary layer are presented here. The first is that, for bypass transition in the narrow sense defined herein, we found that the transitional–turbulent spot inception mechanism is analogous to the secondary instability of boundary-layer natural transition, namely a spanwise vortex filament becomes a Λ vortex and then, a hairpin packet. Long streak meandering does occur but usually when a streak is infected by a nearby existing transitional–turbulent spot. Streak waviness and breakdown are, therefore, not the mechanisms for the inception of transitional–turbulent spots found here. Rather, they only facilitate the growth and spreading of existing transitional–turbulent spots. The second observation is the discovery, in the inner layer of the developed turbulent boundary layer, of what we call turbulent–turbulent spots. These turbulent–turbulent spots are dense concentrations of small-scale vortices with high swirling strength originating from hairpin packets. Although structurally quite similar to the transitional–turbulent spots, these turbulent–turbulent spots are generated locally in the fully turbulent environment, and they are persistent with a systematic variation of detection threshold level. They exert indentation, segmentation, and termination on the viscous sublayer streaks, and they coincide with local concentrations of high levels of Reynolds shear stress, enstrophy, and temperature fluctuations. The sublayer streaks seem to be passive and are often simply the rims of the indentation pockets arising from the turbulent–turbulent spots. PMID:28630304

  12. Transitional-turbulent spots and turbulent-turbulent spots in boundary layers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaohua; Moin, Parviz; Wallace, James M; Skarda, Jinhie; Lozano-Durán, Adrián; Hickey, Jean-Pierre

    2017-07-03

    Two observations drawn from a thoroughly validated direct numerical simulation of the canonical spatially developing, zero-pressure gradient, smooth, flat-plate boundary layer are presented here. The first is that, for bypass transition in the narrow sense defined herein, we found that the transitional-turbulent spot inception mechanism is analogous to the secondary instability of boundary-layer natural transition, namely a spanwise vortex filament becomes a [Formula: see text] vortex and then, a hairpin packet. Long streak meandering does occur but usually when a streak is infected by a nearby existing transitional-turbulent spot. Streak waviness and breakdown are, therefore, not the mechanisms for the inception of transitional-turbulent spots found here. Rather, they only facilitate the growth and spreading of existing transitional-turbulent spots. The second observation is the discovery, in the inner layer of the developed turbulent boundary layer, of what we call turbulent-turbulent spots. These turbulent-turbulent spots are dense concentrations of small-scale vortices with high swirling strength originating from hairpin packets. Although structurally quite similar to the transitional-turbulent spots, these turbulent-turbulent spots are generated locally in the fully turbulent environment, and they are persistent with a systematic variation of detection threshold level. They exert indentation, segmentation, and termination on the viscous sublayer streaks, and they coincide with local concentrations of high levels of Reynolds shear stress, enstrophy, and temperature fluctuations. The sublayer streaks seem to be passive and are often simply the rims of the indentation pockets arising from the turbulent-turbulent spots.

  13. Transitional-turbulent spots and turbulent-turbulent spots in boundary layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaohua; Moin, Parviz; Wallace, James M.; Skarda, Jinhie; Lozano-Durán, Adrián; Hickey, Jean-Pierre

    2017-07-01

    Two observations drawn from a thoroughly validated direct numerical simulation of the canonical spatially developing, zero-pressure gradient, smooth, flat-plate boundary layer are presented here. The first is that, for bypass transition in the narrow sense defined herein, we found that the transitional-turbulent spot inception mechanism is analogous to the secondary instability of boundary-layer natural transition, namely a spanwise vortex filament becomes a ΛΛ vortex and then, a hairpin packet. Long streak meandering does occur but usually when a streak is infected by a nearby existing transitional-turbulent spot. Streak waviness and breakdown are, therefore, not the mechanisms for the inception of transitional-turbulent spots found here. Rather, they only facilitate the growth and spreading of existing transitional-turbulent spots. The second observation is the discovery, in the inner layer of the developed turbulent boundary layer, of what we call turbulent-turbulent spots. These turbulent-turbulent spots are dense concentrations of small-scale vortices with high swirling strength originating from hairpin packets. Although structurally quite similar to the transitional-turbulent spots, these turbulent-turbulent spots are generated locally in the fully turbulent environment, and they are persistent with a systematic variation of detection threshold level. They exert indentation, segmentation, and termination on the viscous sublayer streaks, and they coincide with local concentrations of high levels of Reynolds shear stress, enstrophy, and temperature fluctuations. The sublayer streaks seem to be passive and are often simply the rims of the indentation pockets arising from the turbulent-turbulent spots.

  14. The stochastic effects on the Brazilian Electrical Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira, Pedro Guilherme Costa; Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino; Souza, Reinaldo Castro

    2015-01-01

    The size and characteristics of the Brazilian Electrical Sector (BES) are unique. The system includes a large-scale hydrothermal power system with many hydroelectric plants and multiple owners. Due to the historical harnessing of natural resources, the National Interconnected System (NIS) was developed outside of the economic scale of the BES. The central components of the NIS enable energy generated in any part of Brazil to be consumed in distant regions, considering certain technical configurations. This interconnection results in a large-scale complex system and is controlled by robust computational models, used to support the planning and operation of the NIS. This study presents a different vision of the SEB, demonstrating the intrinsic relationship between hydrological stochasticity and the activities executed by the system, which is an important sector of the infrastructure in Brazil. The simulation of energy scenarios is crucial to the optimal manner to operate the sector and to supporting decisions about whether expansion is necessary, thus, avoiding unnecessary costs and/or losses. These scenarios are an imposing factor in the determination of the spot cost of electrical energy, given that the simulated quantities of water in the reservoirs are one of the determinants for the short-term energy price. - Highlights: • The relationship between the hydrological regimes and the energy policy and planning in Brazil; • An overview about the stochastic effects on the Brazilian Electrical Sector; • The stochasticity associated with the Brazilian electrical planning; • The importance of hydro resources management for energy generation in Brazil;

  15. Electrical Shock: First Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... using a dry, nonconducting object made of cardboard, plastic or wood. Begin CPR if the person shows ... org/first-aid/first-aid-electrical-shock/basics/art-20056695 . Mayo Clinic Footer Legal Conditions and Terms ...

  16. Electrical Burns: First Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... using a dry, nonconducting object made of cardboard, plastic or wood. Begin CPR if the person shows ... org/first-aid/first-aid-electrical-burns/basics/ART-20056687 . Mayo Clinic Footer Legal Conditions and Terms ...

  17. Triggered tremor sweet spots in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, Joan; Prejean, Stephanie

    2013-01-01

    To better understand what controls fault slip along plate boundaries, we have exploited the abundance of seismic and geodetic data available from the richly varied tectonic environments composing Alaska. A search for tremor triggered by 11 large earthquakes throughout all of seismically monitored Alaska reveals two tremor “sweet spots”—regions where large-amplitude seismic waves repeatedly triggered tremor between 2006 and 2012. The two sweet spots locate in very different tectonic environments—one just trenchward and between the Aleutian islands of Unalaska and Akutan and the other in central mainland Alaska. The Unalaska/Akutan spot corroborates previous evidence that the region is ripe for tremor, perhaps because it is located where plate-interface frictional properties transition between stick-slip and stably sliding in both the dip direction and laterally. The mainland sweet spot coincides with a region of complex and uncertain plate interactions, and where no slow slip events or major crustal faults have been noted previously. Analyses showed that larger triggering wave amplitudes, and perhaps lower frequencies (sweet spots also does not occur during slow slip events visually detectable in GPS data, although slow slip below the detection threshold may have facilitated tremor triggering.

  18. Hot-spot tectonics on Io

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcewen, A. S.

    1985-01-01

    The thesis is that extensional tectonics and low-angle detachment faults probably occur on Io in association with the hot spots. These processes may occur on a much shorter timescale on Ion than on Earth, so that Io could be a natural laboratory for the study of thermotectonics. Furthermore, studies of heat and detachment in crustal extension on Earth and the other terresrial planets (especially Venus and Mars) may provide analogs to processes on Io. The geology of Io is dominated by volcanism and hot spots, most likely the result of tidal heating. Hot spots cover 1 to 2% of Io's surface, radiating at temperatures typically from 200 to 400 K, and occasionally up to 700K. Heat loss from the largest hot spots on Io, such as Loki Patera, is about 300 times the heat loss from Yellowstone, so a tremendous quantity of energy is available for volcanic and tectonic work. Active volcanism on Io results in a resurfacing rate as high as 10 cm per year, yet many structural features are apparent on the surface. Therefore, the tectonics must be highly active.

  19. Dramatic Change in Jupiter's Great Red Spot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, A. A.; Wong, M. H.; Rogers, J. H.; Orton, G. S.; de Pater, I.; Asay-Davis, X.; Carlson, R. W.; Marcus, P. S.

    2015-01-01

    Jupiter's Great Red Spot (GRS) is one of its most distinct and enduring features, having been continuously observed since the 1800's. It currently spans the smallest latitude and longitude size ever recorded. Here we show analyses of 2014 Hubble spectral imaging data to study the color, structure and internal dynamics of this long-live storm.

  20. Electricity economics. Production functions with electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zhaoguang [State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing (China); Hu, Zheng [Delaware Univ., Newark, DE (United States)

    2013-07-01

    The first book studies on the economics of electricity consumption. Compares the sector production functions with electricity and the commercial production functions with electricity. Introduces the global E-GDP function, the European E-GDP function and 12 national E-GDP functions. Presents the gene characters of EAI production functions and E-GDP functions for USA to see why USA's economy is entering an up-industrialization period. Discusses China's economic growth by production functions with electricity. Electricity Economics: Production Functions with Electricity studies the production output from analyzing patterns of electricity consumption. Since electricity data can be used to measure scenarios of economic performance due to its accuracy and reliability, it could therefore also be used to help scholars explore new research frontiers that directly and indirectly benefits human society. Our research initially explores a similar pattern to substitute the Cobb-Douglas function with the production function with electricity to track and forecast economic activities. The book systematically introduces the theoretical frameworks and mathematical models of economics from the perspective of electricity consumption. The E-GDP functions are presented for case studies of more than 20 developed and developing countries. These functions also demonstrate substantial similarities between human DNA and production functions with electricity in terms of four major characteristics, namely replication, mutation, uniqueness, and evolution. Furthermore, the book includes extensive data and case studies on the U.S., China, Japan, etc. It is intended for scientists, engineers, financial professionals, policy makers, consultants, and anyone else with a desire to study electricity economics as well as related applications.

  1. Influence of surface pretreatment in resistance spot welding of aluminum AA1050

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Al Naimi, Ihsan K.; Al Saadi, Moneer H.; Daws, Kasim M.

    2015-01-01

    -, medium-, and high-energy inputs. The as-received sheet showed higher electrical contact resistance because of thicker oxide layer. Lower values were noticed with pickled surfaces, whereas the lowest electrical contact resistance was obtained when glass blasting, resulting in the roughest surface......Resistance spot welding (RSW) of aluminum alloys implies a major problem of inconsistent quality from weld to weld due to problems of varying thickness of the oxide layer. The high resistivity of oxide layer causes strong heat development, which has significant influence on electrode life and weld...

  2. Characterization of the near-term electric vehicle (ETV-1) breadboard propulsion system over the SAE J227a driving schedule D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargent, N. B.; Dustin, M. O.

    1981-01-01

    The electric test vehicle one (ETV-1) was built from the ground up with present state of the art technology. Two vehicles were built and are presently being evaluated by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). A duplicate set of propulsion system components was built, mounted on a breadboard, and delivered to NASA's Lewis Research Center for testing on the road load simulator (RLS). Driving cycle tests completed on the system are described.

  3. Hyperspectral analysis of columbia spotted frog habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shive, J.P.; Pilliod, D.S.; Peterson, C.R.

    2010-01-01

    Wildlife managers increasingly are using remotely sensed imagery to improve habitat delineations and sampling strategies. Advances in remote sensing technology, such as hyperspectral imagery, provide more information than previously was available with multispectral sensors. We evaluated accuracy of high-resolution hyperspectral image classifications to identify wetlands and wetland habitat features important for Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) and compared the results to multispectral image classification and United States Geological Survey topographic maps. The study area spanned 3 lake basins in the Salmon River Mountains, Idaho, USA. Hyperspectral data were collected with an airborne sensor on 30 June 2002 and on 8 July 2006. A 12-year comprehensive ground survey of the study area for Columbia spotted frog reproduction served as validation for image classifications. Hyperspectral image classification accuracy of wetlands was high, with a producer's accuracy of 96 (44 wetlands) correctly classified with the 2002 data and 89 (41 wetlands) correctly classified with the 2006 data. We applied habitat-based rules to delineate breeding habitat from other wetlands, and successfully predicted 74 (14 wetlands) of known breeding wetlands for the Columbia spotted frog. Emergent sedge microhabitat classification showed promise for directly predicting Columbia spotted frog egg mass locations within a wetland by correctly identifying 72 (23 of 32) of known locations. Our study indicates hyperspectral imagery can be an effective tool for mapping spotted frog breeding habitat in the selected mountain basins. We conclude that this technique has potential for improving site selection for inventory and monitoring programs conducted across similar wetland habitat and can be a useful tool for delineating wildlife habitats. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

  4. Different patterns between mechanical and electrical activities: an approach to investigate gastric motility in a model of long-term diabetic rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, Rozemeire G; Spadella, Cesar T; Americo, Madileine F; Corá, Luciana A; Oliveira, Ricardo B; Miranda, Jose Ricardo A

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between time-courses of mechanical and electrical events in longstanding diabetes was investigated in rats. Magnetic markers and electrodes were surgically implanted in the gastric serosa of male rats. Simultaneous recordings were obtained by AC biosusceptometry, electromyography and electrogastrography one, three and six months after injections of saline (control) or alloxan (diabetic). Frequency and amplitude of contraction, abnormal rhythmic index and half-bandwidth were obtained (ANOVA P < 0.05). Antral hypomotility and gastric motility instability were observed in the signal waveform of diabetic rats at the three time points of study. The mean frequency (4.4 ± 0.4 cpm) was strictly similar, but the mechanical and electrical correlation was lowest for diabetics groups. Decreases in mechanical amplitude were observed for all diabetic groups compared with control; also the ranges of frequency were much wider in diabetes. The half-bandwidth increased since the first month in mechanical recordings and only after the third month in electrical. In diabetic animals, about 40% of gastric activity was abnormal (against 12% in control) and may reach 60% in the sixth month of mechanical recordings. The multi-instrumental approach showed a more substantial deterioration in mechanical activity and created an integrative view of gastric motility for longstanding diabetic model. (paper)

  5. Society, demography and genetic structure in the spotted hyena.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holekamp, Kay E; Smith, Jennifer E; Strelioff, Christopher C; Van Horn, Russell C; Watts, Heather E

    2012-02-01

    Spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) are large mammalian carnivores, but their societies, called 'clans', resemble those of such cercopithecine primates as baboons and macaques with respect to their size, hierarchical structure, and frequency of social interaction among both kin and unrelated group-mates. However, in contrast to cercopithecine primates, spotted hyenas regularly hunt antelope and compete with group-mates for access to kills, which are extremely rich food sources, but also rare and ephemeral. This unique occurrence of baboon-like sociality among top-level predators has favoured the evolution of many unusual traits in this species. We briefly review the relevant socio-ecology of spotted hyenas, document great demographic variation but little variation in social structure across the species' range, and describe the long-term fitness consequences of rank-related variation in resource access among clan-mates. We then summarize patterns of genetic relatedness within and between clans, including some from a population that had recently gone through a population bottleneck, and consider the roles of sexually dimorphic dispersal and female mate choice in the generation of these patterns. Finally, we apply social network theory under varying regimes of resource availability to analyse the effects of kinship on the stability of social relationships among members of one large hyena clan in Kenya. Although social bonds among both kin and non-kin are weakest when resource competition is most intense, hyenas sustain strong social relationships with kin year-round, despite constraints imposed by resource limitation. Our analyses suggest that selection might act on both individuals and matrilineal kin groups within clans containing multiple matrilines. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. SMART II : the spot market agent research tool version 2.0.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    North, M. J. N.

    2000-12-14

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has worked closely with Western Area Power Administration (Western) over many years to develop a variety of electric power marketing and transmission system models that are being used for ongoing system planning and operation as well as analytic studies. Western markets and delivers reliable, cost-based electric power from 56 power plants to millions of consumers in 15 states. The Spot Market Agent Research Tool Version 2.0 (SMART II) is an investigative system that partially implements some important components of several existing ANL linear programming models, including some used by Western. SMART II does not implement a complete model of the Western utility system but it does include several salient features of this network for exploratory purposes. SMART II uses a Swarm agent-based framework. SMART II agents model bulk electric power transaction dynamics with recognition for marginal costs as well as transmission and generation constraints. SMART II uses a sparse graph of nodes and links to model the electric power spot market. The nodes represent power generators and consumers with distinct marginal decision curves and varying investment capital as well individual learning parameters. The links represent transmission lines with individual capacities taken from a range of central distribution, outlying distribution and feeder line types. The application of SMART II to electric power systems studies has produced useful results different from those often found using more traditional techniques. Use of the advanced features offered by the Swarm modeling environment simplified the creation of the SMART II model.

  7. An integrated model for a forecasting model of the electric power market in the long term; Um modelo integrado de previsao do mercado de energia eletrica a longo prazo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faria, Sergio Nilo Gomes

    1993-07-01

    A proposal for a forecasting model of the electricity market which, in methodological terms, is based on classic econometric formulations - evaluation of income and price elasticities. The electricity demand for some industrial sectors is dealt with in a desegregated way, in order to capture its dependence on the economic activity of these sectors is presented. The proposal of this thesis differs from the usual methodology as far as evaluating the impacts of the energy demand forecast, conformed to well defined macroeconomics and tariff policy assumptions, on the expansion of the power system as a whole, and, particularly, on the financial situation of the power sector. The motivation for the study was the need for a new methodological tool, broad, but streamlined enough to allow widespread assessments of alternative development scenarios associated to different economic and politic contexts, taking into account the main uncertainties present in the several planning stages. (author)

  8. Kekuatan Geser dan Pola Patahan Loop Space Maintainer yang Dibuat dengan Teknik Spot Welding Elektrik

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elin Karlina

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to study the effect of spot variations on shear strength of spot welds in an electric loop space maintainer. Stainless steel wire of 0.8 mm diameter and nickel chromium crwon for lower second molar of temporary teeth were used. A loop 1 cm wide, made of 3.5 cm stainless steel wire, was welded with 3 dots on the crown using an electric spot welder. Each dot for each group took different spot variations from 1 X – 4 X. A loop space maintainer made with the usual materials and techniques as applied at the IKGA FKG UI Clinic was used as a control, with a torch as heat source. Ten specimens each were prepared for shear testing and three spesimens each for metallography. Universal testing machine was used for shear strength testing at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/min, and SEM/EDS was used for metallography and fractography. The data were statistically analyzed with one-way ANOVA at p = 0.05, and Tukey post hoc test. The results show that the shear strength of the welded loop space maintainer was higher than that of a soldered loop space maintainer, although the difference was not statistically significant with spot variation 1 X. SEM/EDS analysis suggests that a new alloy forms at the contact area of welded and soldered loop space maintainer. Fractography of the joints suggests that welds are better than soldered joints, with higher ductility and toughness, as can be seen from the dimpled pattern of the welded joint and cleavage patterns in the control joints. In conclusion, the loop space maintainer is better made by welding than by soldering.

  9. Demand response in Indian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de; Smeers, Yves

    2012-01-01

    This paper outlines a methodology for implementing cost of service regulation in retail market for electricity in India when wholesale market is liberalised and operates through an hourly spot market. As in a developing country context political considerations make tariff levels more important than supply security, satisfying the earmarked level of demand takes a back seat. Retail market regulators are often forced by politicians to keep the retail tariff at suboptimal level. This imposes budget constraint on distribution companies to procure electricity that it requires to meet the earmarked level of demand. This is the way demand response is introduced in the system and has its impact on spot market prices. We model such a situation of not being able to serve the earmarked demand as disutility to the regulator which has to be minimised and we compute associated equilibrium. This results in systematic mechanism for cutting loads. We find that even a small cut in ability of the distribution companies to procure electricity from the spot market has profound impact on the prices in the spot market. - Highlights: ► Modelling the impact of retail tariff in different states on spot prices of electricity in India. ► Retail tariffs are usually fixed below appropriate levels by states due to political reasons. ► Due to revenue constraint distribution utility withdraws demand from spot market in peak hours. ► This adversely affects the scarcity rent of generators and subsequently future investment. ► We show possibility of strategic behaviour among state level regulators in setting retail tariff.

  10. Electrical Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... how quickly you get treatment. Causes of electrical injuries include Lightning strikes Faulty electrical appliances Work-related exposures Contact with household wiring or power lines Accidents in small children, when they bite or suck on electrical cords, ...

  11. Fire protection electrical engineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Jung Min

    2000-03-15

    This book concentrates of electricity with current, voltage, power, ohms law, access of resistance, electrolytic analysis and battery, static on frictional electricity and electrostatic induction, coulomb's law, Gauss's law, condenser and capacity, magmatism on magnetic field and magnetic line of force, magnetic circuit, electromagnetic force, electromotive current, basic alternating current circuit, circuit network analysis, three-phase current, non-sinusoidal alternating current, transient phenomena, semiconductor, electric measurement on measurement over resistance, power, power rate and circuit tester, automatic control on introduction, term, classification, foundation of sequence control, logic circuit and basic logic circuit and electric equipment.

  12. Three-dimensional simulations of resistance spot welding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Chris Valentin; Zhang, Wenqi; Perret, William

    2014-01-01

    This paper draws from the fundamentals of electro-thermo-mechanical coupling to the main aspects of finite element implementation and three-dimensional modelling of resistance welding. A new simulation environment is proposed in order to perform three-dimensional simulations and optimization of r....... The overall presentation is supported by numerical simulations of electrode misalignment caused by the flexibility of the welding machine arms and electrical shunting due to consecutive welds in the resistance spot welding of two sheets.......This paper draws from the fundamentals of electro-thermo-mechanical coupling to the main aspects of finite element implementation and three-dimensional modelling of resistance welding. A new simulation environment is proposed in order to perform three-dimensional simulations and optimization...... of resistance welding together with the simulations of conventional and special-purpose quasi-static mechanical tests. Three-dimensional simulations of resistance welding consider the electrical, thermal, mechanical and metallurgical characteristics of the material as well as the operating conditions...

  13. Electrocardiographic exam in female spotted pacas (Cuniculus paca

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo A.R. Uscategui

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Considering the limited physiological information available on neotropical rodents and the importance of this information for pathophysiological and conservation studies of these species, the aim of this study was to evaluate the cardiac electric physiology of healthy captivity spotted pacas (Cuniculus paca under chemical restraint, due to wild nature of these animals. Eleven adult female pacas were evaluated by blood count and biochemical dosage to rule out any associate disease. Each animal was evaluated in three periods every 15 days. After chemical restraint with intramuscular midazolam 0.5mg/kg and ketamine 25mg/kg, animals were subjected to a computerized electrocardiogram, where bipolar (DI, DII and DIII and augmented unipolar leads (aVR, aVL, aVF were obtained. Descriptive statistics were calculated for each parameter and built the confidence interval (CI at significance level of 95%. The electrocardiographic examination was performed without difficult. ECG tracing in DII represents a QRS complex with positive polarity, preceded by a P wave of the same polarity and proceeded by T wave of variable polarity. Heart rate mean was 150±17 bpm, and cardiac electrical axis 33.4±21.9°. All animals showed sinusal rhythm. The ECG recording technique associated with chemical restraint was well tolerated, allowing quick acquisition of reliable ECG tracings with high repeatability, which produced sufficient results to determine the heart rhythm and suggest measures of ECG complexes duration and amplitude.

  14. Significance of satellite sign and spot sign in predicting hematoma expansion in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Ali, Hasan; Guo, Rui; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Ma, Lu; Li, Hao; You, Chao

    2017-11-01

    Hematoma expansion is related to poor outcome in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Recently, a non-enhanced computed tomography (CT) based finding, termed the 'satellite sign', was reported to be a novel predictor for poor outcome in spontaneous ICH. However, it is still unclear whether the presence of the satellite sign is related to hematoma expansion. Initial computed tomography angiography (CTA) was conducted within 6h after ictus. Satellite sign on non-enhanced CT and spot sign on CTA were detected by two independent reviewers. The sensitivity and specificity of both satellite sign and spot sign were calculated. Receiver-operator analysis was conducted to evaluate their predictive accuracy for hematoma expansion. This study included 153 patients. Satellite sign was detected in 58 (37.91%) patients and spot sign was detected in 38 (24.84%) patients. Among 37 patients with hematoma expansion, 22 (59.46%) had satellite sign and 23 (62.16%) had spot sign. The sensitivity and specificity of satellite sign for prediction of hematoma expansion were 59.46% and 68.97%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of spot sign were 62.16% and 87.07%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of satellite sign was 0.642 and the AUC of spot sign was 0.746. (P=0.157) CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the satellite sign is an independent predictor for hematoma expansion in spontaneous ICH. Although spot sign has the higher predictive accuracy, satellite sign is still an acceptable predictor for hematoma expansion when CTA is unavailable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Turbulent Region Near Jupiter's Great Red Spot

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    True and false color mosaics of the turbulent region west of Jupiter's Great Red Spot. The Great Red Spot is on the planetary limb on the right hand side of each mosaic. The region west (left) of the Great Red Spot is characterized by large, turbulent structures that rapidly change in appearance. The turbulence results from the collision of a westward jet that is deflected northward by the Great Red Spot into a higher latitude eastward jet. The large eddies nearest to the Great Red Spot are bright, suggesting that convection and cloud formation are active there.The top mosaic combines the violet (410 nanometers) and near infrared continuum (756 nanometers) filter images to create a mosaic similar to how Jupiter would appear to human eyes. Differences in coloration are due to the composition and abundance of trace chemicals in Jupiter's atmosphere. The lower mosaic uses the Galileo imaging camera's three near-infrared (invisible) wavelengths (756 nanometers, 727 nanometers, and 889 nanometers displayed in red, green, and blue) to show variations in cloud height and thickness. Light blue clouds are high and thin, reddish clouds are deep, and white clouds are high and thick. Purple most likely represents a high haze overlying a clear deep atmosphere. Galileo is the first spacecraft to distinguish cloud layers on Jupiter.The mosaic is centered at 16.5 degrees south planetocentric latitude and 85 degrees west longitude. The north-south dimension of the Great Red Spot is approximately 11,000 kilometers. The smallest resolved features are tens of kilometers in size. North is at the top of the picture. The images used were taken on June 26, 1997 at a range of 1.2 million kilometers (1.05 million miles) by the Solid State Imaging (SSI) system on NASA's Galileo spacecraft.The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA manages the Galileo mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, DC. JPL is an operating division of California Institute of Technology (Caltech

  16. Ambitious Survey Spots Stellar Nurseries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-01

    -dimensional geometry of the Magellanic system. Chris Evans from the VMC team adds: "The VISTA images will allow us to extend our studies beyond the inner regions of the Tarantula into the multitude of smaller stellar nurseries nearby, which also harbour a rich population of young and massive stars. Armed with the new, exquisite infrared images, we will be able to probe the cocoons in which massive stars are still forming today, while also looking at their interaction with older stars in the wider region." The wide-field image shows a host of different objects. The bright area above the centre is the Tarantula Nebula itself, with the RMC 136 cluster of massive stars in its core. To the left is the NGC 2100 star cluster. To the right is the tiny remnant of the supernova SN1987A (eso1032). Below the centre are a series of star-forming regions including NGC 2080 - nicknamed the "Ghost Head Nebula" - and the NGC 2083 star cluster. The VISTA Magellanic Cloud Survey is one of six huge near-infrared surveys of the southern sky that will take up most of the first five years of operations of VISTA. Notes [1] VISTA ― the Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy ― is the newest telescope at ESO's Paranal Observatory in northern Chile. VISTA is a survey telescope working at near-infrared wavelengths and is the world's largest survey telescope. Its large mirror, wide field of view and very sensitive detectors will reveal a completely new view of the southern sky. The telescope is housed on the peak adjacent to the one hosting ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) and shares the same exceptional observing conditions. VISTA has a main mirror that is 4.1 m across. In photographic terms it can be thought of as a 67-megapixel digital camera with a 13 000 mm f/3.25 mirror lens. More information ESO, the European Southern Observatory, is the foremost intergovernmental astronomy organisation in Europe and the world's most productive astronomical observatory. It is supported by 14 countries

  17. SPOT: How good for geology? A comparison with LANDSAT MSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sesoeren, A.

    1986-12-01

    Geological interpretation possibilities of SPOT MSS and LANDSAT MSS positive prints enlarged to the same scale were compared, using as a test area part of the Jebel Amour (Algeria). The SPOT imagery offers many advantages, filling the gap between remote sensing from space and aerial photography. The best results by visual interpretation are obtained in combining SPOT for the required details with LANDSAT for the synoptic veiw. Further improvements are expected from the use of SPOT stereo-pairs.

  18. Spotted-Leaf Mutants of Rice (Oryza sativa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-na HUANG

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Many rice spotted-leaf (spl mutants are ideal sources for understanding the mechanisms involved in blast resistance, bacterial blight resistance and programmed cell death in plants. The genetic controls of 50 spotted-leaf mutants in rice have been characterized and a few spotted-leaf genes have been isolated as well. This article reviews the origin, genetic modes, isolation and characterization of spotted-leaf genes responsible for their phenotypes, and their resistance responses to main rice diseases.

  19. Studies of breakeven prices and electricity supply potentials of nuclear fusion by a long-term world energy and environment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokimatsu, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Okano, K.; Yoshida, T.; Hiwatari, R.; Konishi, S.; Nishio, S.; Fujino, J.; Ogawa, Y.; Yamaji, K.

    2002-01-01

    In response to social demand, this paper investigates the breakeven price (BP) and potential electricity supply of nuclear fusion energy in the 21st century by means of a world energy and environment model. We set the following objectives in this paper: (i) to reveal the economics of the introduction conditions of nuclear fusion; (ii) to know when tokamak-type nuclear fusion reactors are expected to be introduced cost-effectively into future energy systems; (iii) to estimate the share in 2100 of electricity produced by the presently designed reactors that could be economically selected in the year. The model can give in detail the energy and environment technologies and price-induced energy saving, and can illustrate optimal energy supply structures by minimizing the costs of total discounted energy systems at a discount rate of 5%. The following parameters of nuclear fusion were considered: cost of electricity (COE) in the nuclear fusion introduction year, annual COE reduction rates, regional introduction year, and regional nuclear fusion capacity projection. The investigations are carried out for three nuclear fusion projections one of which includes tritium breeding constraints, four future CO 2 concentration constraints, and technological assumptions on fossil fuels, nuclear fission, CO 2 sequestration, and anonymous innovative technologies. It is concluded that: (1) the BPs are from 65 to 125 mill kW -1 h -1 depending on the introduction year of nuclear fusion under the 550 ppmv CO 2 concentration constraints; those of a business-as-usual (BAU) case are from 51 to 68 mill kW -1 h -1 . Uncertainties resulting from the CO 2 concentration constraints and the technological options influenced the BPs by plus/minus some 10-30 mill kW -1 h -1 , (2) tokamak-type nuclear fusion reactors (as presently designed, with a COE range around 70-130 mill kW -1 h -1 ) would be favourably introduced into energy systems after 2060 based on the economic criteria under the 450 and

  20. Analysis of ripple formation in single crystal spot welds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rappaz, M. [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (Switzerland). Lab de Metallurgie Physique; Corrigan, D.; Boatner, L.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Solid State Div.

    1997-10-01

    Stationary spot welds have been made at the (001) surface of Fe-l5%Ni-15%Cr single crystals using a Gas Tungsten Arc (GTA). On the top surface of the spot welds, very regular and concentric ripples were observed after solidification by differential interference color microscopy. Their height (typically 1--5 {micro}m) and spacing (typically {approximately} 60 {micro}m) decreased with the radius of the pool. These ripples were successfully accounted for in terms of capillary-wave theory using the fundamental mode frequency f{sub 0} given by the first zero of the zero-order Bessel function. The spacing d between the ripples was then equated to v{sub s}/f{sub 0}, where v{sub s} is the solidification rate. From the measured ripple spacing, the velocity of the pool was deduced as a function of the radius, and this velocity was in good agreement with the results of a heat-flow simulation.

  1. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSIFICATION UNDER COTTON FUTURES LEGISLATION Regulations Spot Markets § 27.93 Bona fide spot markets. The following markets have been determined, after investigation, and are hereby... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bona fide spot markets. 27.93 Section 27.93...

  2. Sowing rates for reforestation by the seed-spotting method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert H. Schubert; Harry A. Fowells

    1964-01-01

    Presents guides to determine the number of seeds to sow per spot and the number of spots required per acre to obtain acceptable stocking. Based on theoretical probabilities, these guides were found to be reasonably close to actual field results When the probability-of-success was at least 55 percent. To compensate for lower actual stocking, increase the number of spots...

  3. 7 CFR 28.424 - Strict Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Strict Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.424 Section 28.424 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  4. 7 CFR 28.421 - Good Middling Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Good Middling Spotted Color. 28.421 Section 28.421 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Good Middling Spotted Color is color which is better than Strict Middling Spotted Color. ...

  5. 7 CFR 28.426 - Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color. 28.426 Section 28.426 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  6. White Spot Syndrome Virus infection in Penaeus monodon is ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2013-11-06

    Nov 6, 2013 ... White Spot Syndrome Virus (WSSV) is a major pathogen in shrimp aquaculture, and its rampant spread has resulted in great economic loss. ... has been increasingly hampered by white spot syndrome disease caused by White Spot ..... metabolic proteins have additional roles in immunity and transcriptional ...

  7. Spot-Welding Gun With Pivoting Twin-Collet Assembly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Francis; Simpson, Gareth; Hoult, William S.

    1996-01-01

    Modified spot-welding gun includes pivoting twin-collet assembly that holds two spot-welding electrodes. Designed to weld highly conductive (30 percent gold) brazing-alloy foils to thin nickel alloy workpieces; also suitable for other spot-welding applications compatible with two-electrode configuration.

  8. EDF experience with {open_quotes}hot spot{close_quotes} management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guio, J.M. de [Blayais Nuclear Power Plant, St. Ciers (France)

    1995-03-01

    During the past few years, {open_quotes}hot spots{close_quotes} due to the presence of particles of metal activated during their migration through the reactor core, have been detected at several French pressurized water reactor (PWR) units. These {open_quotes}hot spots,{close_quotes} which generate very high dose rates (from about 10 Gy/h to 200 G/h) are a significant factor in increase occupational exposures during outrates. Of particular concern are the difficult cases which prolong outage duration and increase the volume of radiological waste. Confronted with this situation, Electricite de France (EDF) has set up a national research group, as part of its ALARA program, to establish procedures and techniques to avoid, detect, and eliminate of hot spots. In particular, specific processes have been developed to eliminate these hot spots which are most costly in terms of occupational exposure due to the need for reactor maintenance. This paper sets out the general approach adopted at EDF so far to cope with the problem of hot spots, illustrated by experience at Blayais 3 and 4.

  9. Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

    2009-01-01

    A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

  10. Different mechanisms for the short-term effects of real versus sham transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) in patients with chronic pain: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosterhof, Jan; Wilder-Smith, Oliver H; Oostendorp, Rob A; Crul, Ben J

    2012-01-01

    Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) has existed since the early 1970s. However, randomized placebo controlled studies show inconclusive results in the treatment of chronic pain. These results could be explained by assuming that TENS elicits a placebo response. However, in animal research TENS has been found to decrease hyperalgesia, which contradicts this assumption. The aim of this study is to use quantitative sensory testing to explore changes in pain processing during sham versus real TENS in patients with chronic pain. Patients with chronic pain (N = 20) were randomly allocated to real TENS or sham TENS application. Electrical pain thresholds (EPTs) were determined inside and outside the segment stimulated, before and after the first 20 minutes of the intervention, and after a period of 10 days of daily real/sham TENS application. Pain relief did not differ significantly for real versus sham TENS. However, by comparing time courses of EPTs, it was found that EPT values outside the segment of stimulation increased for sham TENS, whereas for real TENS these values decreased. There were, however, no differences for EPT measurements inside the segment stimulated. These results illustrate the importance of including mechanism-reflecting parameters in addition to symptoms when conducting pain research.

  11. Consequences of long-term power outages and high electricity prices lasting for months; Konsekvenser av langvarige stroemutfall og hoeye kraftpriser i flere maaneder

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Several areas in the world have experienced electricity outages for longer periods of time, but the consequences of these are sparsely documented. There is a need for further analysis of the socioeconomic consequences of the outages. In addition to KILE (Quality adjusted revenue framework for un supplied energy) costs one has to take into account that the costs often increase proportionally with the durance of the outage, and that KILE tariffs do not reflect lost consumer's surplus for products that are not produced during an outage. A good example is the public underground transport, where the company's economical loss can be significantly smaller than the loss of utility value for the travellers. If the authorities act with reasonability it is difficult to see that periods with very high prices represent a big problem. The most important problems are related to diffused effects, especially for households with a weak economy. These problems can be solved with improved contractual forms (price guarantees) or by transfers to the households, without weakening the incentives for electricity economising (ml)

  12. Great red spot dependence on solar activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schatten, K.H.

    1979-01-01

    A new inquiry has been made into the question of whether Jupiter's Great Red Spot shows a solar activity dependence. From 1892 to 1947 a clear correlation was present. A dearth of sightings in the seventeenth century, along with the Maunder Minimum, further supports the relation. An anticorrelation, however, from l948 to l967 removed support for such an effect. The old observations have reexamined and recent observations have also been studied. The author reexamines this difficult question and suggests a possible physical mechanism for a Sun-Jovian weather relation. Prinn and Lewis' conversion reaction of Phosphine gas to triclinic red phosphorous crystals is a reaction dependent upon solar radiation. It may explain the dependence found, as well as the striking appearance of the Great Red Spot in the UV

  13. Dynamically variable spot size laser system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gradl, Paul R. (Inventor); Hurst, John F. (Inventor); Middleton, James R. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A Dynamically Variable Spot Size (DVSS) laser system for bonding metal components includes an elongated housing containing a light entry aperture coupled to a laser beam transmission cable and a light exit aperture. A plurality of lenses contained within the housing focus a laser beam from the light entry aperture through the light exit aperture. The lenses may be dynamically adjusted to vary the spot size of the laser. A plurality of interoperable safety devices, including a manually depressible interlock switch, an internal proximity sensor, a remotely operated potentiometer, a remotely activated toggle and a power supply interlock, prevent activation of the laser and DVSS laser system if each safety device does not provide a closed circuit. The remotely operated potentiometer also provides continuous variability in laser energy output.

  14. Experimental and simulated strength of spot welds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Chris Valentin; Bennedbæk, Rune A.K.; Larsen, Morten B.

    2014-01-01

    Weld strength testing of single spots in DP600 steel is presented for the three typical testing procedures, i.e. tensile-shear, cross-tension and peel testing. Spot welds are performed at two sets of welding parameters and strength testing under these conditions is presented by load......-elongation curves revealing the maximum load and the elongation at break. Welding and strength testing is simulated by SORPAS® 3D, which allows the two processes to be prepared in a combined simulation, such that the simulated welding properties are naturally applied to the simulation of strength testing. Besides...... the size and shape of the weld nugget, these properties include the new strength of the material in the weld and the heat affected zone based on the predicted hardness resulting from microstructural phase changes simulated during cooling of the weld before strength testing. Comparisons between overall...

  15. SPS remanent radiation the warm spots

    CERN Document Server

    Billen, R

    1998-01-01

    The remanent radiation in the SPS ring is measured after each operational period. We all know very well the "hot spots" in the dedicated regions for particle injection and extraction. So far, not a lot of attention has been paid to those regions where there are clear traces of radiation, without an obvious reason. From an operational point of view, these regions might be quite important, since they could reveal a specific problem. This paper will look into those "warm spots", their location in the SPS ring and the transverse plane in which the radiation originates. Some classification of typical problem classes is made, as well as hints to the possible origins of the radiation problems.

  16. Application of laser spot cutting on spring contact probe for semiconductor package inspection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Dongkyoung; Cho, Jungdon; Kim, Chan Ho; Lee, Seung Hwan

    2017-12-01

    A packaged semiconductor has to be electrically tested to make sure they are free of any manufacturing defects. The test interface, typically employed between a Printed Circuit Board and the semiconductor devices, consists of densely populated Spring Contact Probe (SCP). A standard SCP typically consists of a plunger, a barrel, and an internal spring. Among these components, plungers are manufactured by a stamping process. After stamping, plunger connecting arms need to be cut into pieces. Currently, mechanical cutting has been used. However, it may damage to the body of plungers due to the mechanical force engaged at the cutting point. Therefore, laser spot cutting is considered to solve this problem. The plunger arm is in the shape of a rectangular beam, 50 μm (H) × 90 μm (W). The plunger material used for this research is gold coated beryllium copper. Laser parameters, such as power and elapsed time, have been selected to study laser spot cutting. Laser material interaction characteristics such as a crater size, material removal zone, ablation depth, ablation threshold, and full penetration are observed. Furthermore, a carefully chosen laser parameter (Etotal = 1000mJ) to test feasibility of laser spot cutting are applied. The result show that laser spot cutting can be applied to cut SCP.

  17. Material influence on hot spot distribution in the nanoparticle heterodimer on film

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Fang; Huang, Yingzhou; Wei, Hua; Wang, Shuxia; Zeng, Xiping; Cao, Wenbin; Wen, Weijia

    2018-04-01

    The metal nanoparticle aggregated on film, as an effective plasma enhancement pathway, has been widely used in various surface plasmon-related fields. In this study, the hot spots on the metal nanoparticle dimer composed of different materials (Agsbnd Au, Agsbnd Pd, and Agsbnd Cu) on metal (Au) film were investigated with finite element method. Based on the results, the hot spot distribution affected by the material can be confirmed by the electric field distribution of the metal nanoparticle dimer on the film. The aggregation effects of Au and Ag nanoparticles in Ausbnd Ag dimer system are not significant. However, for the Pdsbnd Ag dimer system, the hot spot aggregation effect is slightly larger than that of the Pd nanoparticle under the Ag nanoparticle. Besides, the non-uniform hot spots would bring about the light focusing phenomenon that the light intensity under Ag nanoparticle is almost 100 times greater than that under Cu nanoparticle in Agsbnd Cu dimer system. These results were further confirmed by the surface charge distribution, and analyzed based on the plasmonic hybridization theory. The data about the nanoparticle dimer on the dielectric (Si) film demonstrate the importance of induced image charges on the film surface in such a light focusing phenomenon. Our findings can enhance the understanding of the surface plasmon coupling in different materials, which may have great application prospects in surface plasmon-related fields, such as SERS, plasmonic enhanced solar cell, and plasmonic sensoring, etc.

  18. Sustainable control of white spot disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heinecke, Rasmus Demuth; Buchmann, Kurt

    White spot disease caused by the ciliate Ichthyophthirius multifiliis Fouquet, 1876 is a serious problem in freshwater aquaculture worldwide. This parasitosis is of frequent occurrence in both conventional earth pond fish farms and in fish farms using new high technology re-circulation systems...... all had significant influences on parasite survival. Strategic treatment using the environmentally friendly chemical sodium percarbonate in combination with continuous micro-filtering of the pond water is suggested for control and management of this parasitosis....

  19. Laser induced single spot oxidation of titanium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jwad, Tahseen, E-mail: taj355@bham.ac.uk; Deng, Sunan; Butt, Haider; Dimov, S.

    2016-11-30

    Highlights: • A new high resolution laser induced oxidation (colouring) method is proposed (single spot oxidation). • The method is applied to control oxide films thicknesses and hence colours on titanium substrates in micro-scale. • The method enable imprinting high resolution coloured image on Ti substrate. • Optical and morphological periodic surface structures are also produced by an array of oxide spots using the proposed method. • Colour coding of two colours into one field is presented. - Abstract: Titanium oxides have a wide range of applications in industry, and they can be formed on pure titanium using different methods. Laser-induced oxidation is one of the most reliable methods due to its controllability and selectivity. Colour marking is one of the main applications of the oxidation process. However, the colourizing process based on laser scanning strategies is limited by the relative large processing area in comparison to the beam size. Single spot oxidation of titanium substrates is proposed in this research in order to increase the resolution of the processed area and also to address the requirements of potential new applications. The method is applied to produce oxide films with different thicknesses and hence colours on titanium substrates. High resolution colour image is imprinted on a sheet of pure titanium by converting its pixels’ colours into laser parameter settings. Optical and morphological periodic surface structures are also produced by an array of oxide spots and then analysed. Two colours have been coded into one field and the dependencies of the reflected colours on incident and azimuthal angles of the light are discussed. The findings are of interest to a range of application areas, as they can be used to imprint optical devices such as diffusers and Fresnel lenses on metallic surfaces as well as for colour marking.

  20. Laser induced single spot oxidation of titanium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jwad, Tahseen; Deng, Sunan; Butt, Haider; Dimov, S.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A new high resolution laser induced oxidation (colouring) method is proposed (single spot oxidation). • The method is applied to control oxide films thicknesses and hence colours on titanium substrates in micro-scale. • The method enable imprinting high resolution coloured image on Ti substrate. • Optical and morphological periodic surface structures are also produced by an array of oxide spots using the proposed method. • Colour coding of two colours into one field is presented. - Abstract: Titanium oxides have a wide range of applications in industry, and they can be formed on pure titanium using different methods. Laser-induced oxidation is one of the most reliable methods due to its controllability and selectivity. Colour marking is one of the main applications of the oxidation process. However, the colourizing process based on laser scanning strategies is limited by the relative large processing area in comparison to the beam size. Single spot oxidation of titanium substrates is proposed in this research in order to increase the resolution of the processed area and also to address the requirements of potential new applications. The method is applied to produce oxide films with different thicknesses and hence colours on titanium substrates. High resolution colour image is imprinted on a sheet of pure titanium by converting its pixels’ colours into laser parameter settings. Optical and morphological periodic surface structures are also produced by an array of oxide spots and then analysed. Two colours have been coded into one field and the dependencies of the reflected colours on incident and azimuthal angles of the light are discussed. The findings are of interest to a range of application areas, as they can be used to imprint optical devices such as diffusers and Fresnel lenses on metallic surfaces as well as for colour marking.

  1. Heap hot spots visualization in Java

    OpenAIRE

    Mahdavi, Babak; Driesen, Karel

    2001-01-01

    Data memory (heap) management is a particularly important feature of the Java programming environment. The visualization of memory location in form of hot spots can help to see how the data cache is used during the execution of a program. The behavior of such executed program can be thus speculated. Through a series of experiments using Load and Store trace files, some pertinent aspect of data memory accessing, can be visualized, including the frequency of how often the Java virtual machine r...

  2. Forecasting European thermal coal spot prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alicja Krzemień

    2015-01-01

    Finally, in order to analyse the time series model performance a Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN was used and its performance compared against the whole AR(2 process. Empirical results obtained confirmed that there is no statistically significant difference between both methods. The GRNN analysis also allowed pointing out the main drivers that move the European Thermal Coal Spot prices: crude oil, USD/CNY change and supply side drivers.

  3. DNA-nanostructure-assembly by sequential spotting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Breitenstein Michael

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to create nanostructures with biomolecules is one of the key elements in nanobiotechnology. One of the problems is the expensive and mostly custom made equipment which is needed for their development. We intended to reduce material costs and aimed at miniaturization of the necessary tools that are essential for nanofabrication. Thus we combined the capabilities of molecular ink lithography with DNA-self-assembling capabilities to arrange DNA in an independent array which allows addressing molecules in nanoscale dimensions. Results For the construction of DNA based nanostructures a method is presented that allows an arrangement of DNA strands in such a way that they can form a grid that only depends on the spotted pattern of the anchor molecules. An atomic force microscope (AFM has been used for molecular ink lithography to generate small spots. The sequential spotting process allows the immobilization of several different functional biomolecules with a single AFM-tip. This grid which delivers specific addresses for the prepared DNA-strand serves as a two-dimensional anchor to arrange the sequence according to the pattern. Once the DNA-nanoarray has been formed, it can be functionalized by PNA (peptide nucleic acid to incorporate advanced structures. Conclusions The production of DNA-nanoarrays is a promising task for nanobiotechnology. The described method allows convenient and low cost preparation of nanoarrays. PNA can be used for complex functionalization purposes as well as a structural element.

  4. Superluminal Spot Pair Events in Astronomical Settings: Sweeping Beams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemiroff, Robert J.

    2015-02-01

    Sweeping beams of light can cast spots moving with superluminal speeds across scattering surfaces. Such faster-than-light speeds are well-known phenomena that do not violate special relativity. It is shown here that under certain circumstances, superluminal spot pair creation and annihilation events can occur that provide unique information to observers. These spot pair events are not particle pair events-they are the sudden creation or annihilation of a pair of relatively illuminated spots on a scattering surface. Real spot pair illumination events occur unambiguously on the scattering surface when spot speeds diverge, while virtual spot pair events are observer dependent and perceived only when real spot radial speeds cross the speed of light. Specifically, a virtual spot pair creation event will be observed when a real spot's speed toward the observer drops below c, while a virtual spot pair annihilation event will be observed when a real spot's radial speed away from the observer rises above c. Superluminal spot pair events might be found angularly, photometrically, or polarimetrically, and might carry useful geometry or distance information. Two example scenarios are briefly considered. The first is a beam swept across a scattering spherical object, exemplified by spots of light moving across Earth's Moon and pulsar companions. The second is a beam swept across a scattering planar wall or linear filament, exemplified by spots of light moving across variable nebulae including Hubble's Variable Nebula. In local cases where the sweeping beam can be controlled and repeated, a three-dimensional map of a target object can be constructed. Used tomographically, this imaging technique is fundamentally different from lens photography, radar, and conventional lidar.

  5. Impacts of Western Area Power Administration's power marketing alternatives on electric utility systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veselka, T.D.; Portante, E.C.; Koritarov, V.

    1995-03-01

    This technical memorandum estimates the effects of alternative contractual commitments that may be initiated by the Western Area Power Administration's Salt Lake City Area Office. It also studies hydropower operational restrictions at the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects in combination with these alternatives. Power marketing and hydropower operational effects are estimated in support of Western's Electric Power Marketing Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). Electricity production and capacity expansion for utility systems that will be directly affected by alternatives specified in the EIS are simulated. Cost estimates are presented by utility type and for various activities such as capacity expansion, generation, long-term firm purchases and sales, fixed operation and maintenance expenses, and spot market activities. Operational changes at hydropower facilities are also investigated

  6. Superluminal Sweeping Spot Pair Events in Astronomical Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemiroff, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Sweeping beams of light can cast spots that move superluminally across scattering surfaces. Such faster-than-light speeds are well-known phenomena that do not violate special relativity. It is shown that under certain circumstances, superluminal spot pair creation and annihilation events can occur that provide unique information to observers. These spot pair events are not particle pair events -- they are the sudden creation or annihilation of a pair of relatively illuminated spots on a scattering surface. Astronomical settings where superluminal spot pairs might be found include Earth's Moon, passing asteroids, pulsars, and variable nebula. Potentially recoverable information includes three dimensional imaging, relative geometric size factors, and distances.

  7. Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

    2013-01-01

    Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

  8. Matrix analysis of electrical machinery

    CERN Document Server

    Hancock, N N

    2013-01-01

    Matrix Analysis of Electrical Machinery, Second Edition is a 14-chapter edition that covers the systematic analysis of electrical machinery performance. This edition discusses the principles of various mathematical operations and their application to electrical machinery performance calculations. The introductory chapters deal with the matrix representation of algebraic equations and their application to static electrical networks. The following chapters describe the fundamentals of different transformers and rotating machines and present torque analysis in terms of the currents based on the p

  9. Usefulness of short-term variability of QT intervals as a predictor for electrical remodeling and proarrhythmia in patients with nonischemic heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hinterseer, Martin; Beckmann, Britt-Maria; Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard

    2010-01-01

    The high incidence of sudden cardiac death in heart failure (HF) reflects electrophysiologic changes in response to myocardial failure. We previously showed that short-term variability of QT intervals (STV(QT)) identifies latent repolarization disorders in patients with drug-induced or congenital...

  10. 7 CFR 28.414 - Strict Low Middling Light Spotted Color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSING, TESTING, AND STANDARDS Standards Light Spotted Cotton § 28.414 Strict Low Middling Light Spotted Color. Strict Low Middling Light Spotted Color is color which in spot or...

  11. Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslyuk, Svetlana; Smyth, Russell

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we examine whether WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures prices (at 1, 3 and 6 months to maturity) contain a unit root with one and two structural breaks, employing weekly data over the period 1991-2004. To realise this objective we employ Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two endogenous structural breaks proposed by Lee and Strazicich [2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 1082-1089; 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper no. 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University]. We find that each of the oil price series can be characterised as a random walk process and that the endogenous structural breaks are significant and meaningful in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets. (author)

  12. Light stops, blind spots, and isospin violation in the MSSM

    CERN Document Server

    Crivellin, Andreas; Procura, Massimiliano; Tunstall, Lewis C

    2015-01-01

    In the framework of the MSSM, we examine several simplified models where only a few superpartners are light. This allows us to study WIMP--nucleus scattering in terms of a handful of MSSM parameters and thereby scrutinize their impact on dark matter direct-detection experiments. Focusing on spin-independent WIMP--nucleon scattering, we derive simplified, analytic expressions for the Wilson coefficients associated with Higgs and squark exchange. We utilize these results to study the complementarity of constraints due to direct-detection, flavor, and collider experiments. We also identify parameter configurations that produce (almost) vanishing cross sections. In the proximity of these so-called blind spots, we find that the amount of isospin violation may be much larger than typically expected in the MSSM. This feature is a generic property of parameter regions where cross sections are suppressed, and highlights the importance of a careful analysis of the nucleon matrix elements and the associated hadronic unc...

  13. Load-shift incentives for household demand response: Evaluation of hourly dynamic pricing and rebate schemes in a wind-based electricity system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katz, Jonas; Møller Andersen, Frits; Morthorst, Poul Erik

    2016-01-01

    Applying a partial equilibrium model of the electricity market we analyse effects of exposing household electricity customers to retail products with variable pricing. Both short-term and long-term effects of exposing customers to hourly spot market prices and a simpler rebate scheme are analysed...... under scenarios with large shares of wind power in a Danish case study. Our results indicate strategies that could be favourable in ensuring high adoption of products and efficient response by households. We find that simple pricing schemes, though economically less efficient, could become important...... in an early phase to initialise the development of household demand response. At a later point, when long-term dynamics take effect, a larger effort should be made to shift consumers onto real-time rates, and an increased focus on overall adoption of variable pricing will be required. Another finding...

  14. Time Resolved X-Ray Spot Size Diagnostic

    CERN Document Server

    Richardson, Roger; Falabella, Steven; Guethlein, Gary; Raymond, Brett; Weir, John

    2005-01-01

    A diagnostic was developed for the determination of temporal history of an X-ray spot. A pair of thin (0.5 mm) slits image the x-ray spot to a fast scintillator which is coupled to a fast detector, thus sampling a slice of the X-Ray spot. Two other scintillator/detectors are used to determine the position of the spot and total forward dose. The slit signal is normalized to the dose and the resulting signal is analyzed to get the spot size. The position information is used to compensate for small changes due to spot motion and misalignment. The time resolution of the diagnostic is about 1 ns and measures spots from 0.5 mm to over 3 mm. The theory and equations used to calculate spot size and position are presented, as well as data. The calculations assume a symmetric, Gaussian spot. The spot data is generated by the ETA II accelerator, a 2kA, 5.5 MeV, 60ns electron beam focused on a Tantalum target. The spot generated is typically about 1 mm FWHM. Comparisons are made to an X-ray pinhole camera which images th...

  15. The evolution of electricity prices in an uncertain world. Contracting and managing the price risk; L'evolution des prix de l'electricite en univers incertain: Contractualisation et gestion du risque prix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vassilopoulos, Ph.; Rapin, D. [Universite de Paris Dauphine, Centre de Geopolitique de l' Energie et des Matieres Premieres, 75 - Paris (France)

    2004-09-01

    With the liberalization of the electricity market, the large industrial consumers saw their electric bill changing nature. Before, this price reflected a long term negotiation with the monopoly, now it is established in a free way via wholesale markets. This evolution marks a transfer of the management of price risk from the producer towards the consumer. This change is not in itself a problem if the hedging instruments are adapted. We note a contamination of the price of the derivative products by the spot while at the same time the traditional relation between cash and term is not always valid for electricity because of its non storability. When well even the price of the derivative products would be formed in an autonomous way, it poses a second problem: that of their indexing on price references like Platt's whose result is assimilated more to a survey of large producers than a true confrontation of supply and demand. This article proposes to examine this change of nature and behaviour of electricity prices. After having explained the intrinsically volatile characteristic of spot prices, we will recall that the products in the long term are not always optimal solutions to decrease this price risk. Lastly, we will highlight a solution of skirting at the risks mentioned above: contracting between producers and consumers. (authors)

  16. Using neural networks and extreme value distributions to model electricity pool prices: Evidence from the Australian National Electricity Market 1998–2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dev, Priya; Martin, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Neural nets are unable to properly capture spiky price behavior found in the electricity market. • We modeled electricity price data from the Australian National Electricity Market over 15 years. • Neural nets need to be augmented with other modeling techniques to capture price spikes. • We fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price spikes using a peaks-over-thresholds approach. - Abstract: Competitors in the electricity supply industry desire accurate predictions of electricity spot prices to hedge against financial risks. Neural networks are commonly used for forecasting such prices, but certain features of spot price series, such as extreme price spikes, present critical challenges for such modeling. We investigate the predictive capacity of neural networks for electricity spot prices using Australian National Electricity Market data. Following neural net modeling of the data, we explore extreme price spikes through extreme value modeling, fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price peaks over an estimated threshold. While neural nets capture the smoother aspects of spot price data, they are unable to capture local, volatile features that characterize electricity spot price data. Price spikes can be modeled successfully through extreme value modeling

  17. Electricity Market Optimization of Heat Pump Portfolio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom S.

    2013-01-01

    , the aggregator is able to place upward and downward regulating bids in the regulating power market based on the consumption flexibility. A simulation is carried out based on data from a Danish domestic heat pump project, historical spot prices, regulating power prices, and spot price predictions. The simulations......We consider a portfolio of domestic heat pumps controlled by an aggregator. The aggregator is able to adjust the consumption of the heat pumps without affecting the comfort in the houses and uses this ability to shift the main consumption to hours with low electricity prices. Further...

  18. Adjustable consumption participating in the electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Hansen, Lars Henrik; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    We consider a player managing a portfolio of flexible demand-side devices and examine the requirements for such a player to become an active player in the Nordic electricity system. In particular, we examine the regulatory requirements that must be satisfied to perform spot price optimization...... are aggregated and utilized for spot price optimization and to participate in the regulating power market. In this case study we examine in detail the implications of the given regulatory requirements for market participation in the Nordic system and compare this with estimates of the revenue that can...

  19. Reassessing the integration of European electricity markets: A fractional cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

    2016-01-01

    This study extends existing literature on the assessment of electricity market integration in Europe, by developing and testing hypotheses on the convergence of electricity wholesale prices, and adopting a time-varying fractional cointegration analysis. In addition, the potential impacts of some special events that may affect system capacity (new interconnection, market coupling, increase in share of intermittent generation) on spot and forward markets are considered and evaluated. Daily spot prices from February 2000 to March 2013 of nine European electricity spot markets (APX-UK, APX-NL, Belpex, EPEX-FR, EPEX-DE, IPEX, Nordpool, Omel and OTE) and month-ahead prices in four markets (French, British, German and Dutch) from November 2007 to December 2012 are investigated. Results show that unit root tests, which are generally used in the literature to test market integration, are inadequate for assessing electricity spot market convergence, because spot prices are found to be fractionally integrated and mean-reverting time series. Furthermore, spot price behaviour and their association with different markets change over time, reflecting changes in the EU electrical system. One-month-ahead prices, by contrast, were found to have become more resilient to shocks and to follow more stable trends. - Highlights: • We examine electricity market convergence in the EU. • Common price dynamics are affected by changes in interconnection and capacity. • Forward markets have increased in resilience. • Germany's nuclear plant closures had an adverse effect on most European electricity markets.

  20. Improved simulation method of automotive spot weld failure with an account of the mechanical properties of spot welds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, H.; Meng, X. M.; Fang, R.; Huang, Y. F.; Zhan, S.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, the microstructure and mechanical properties of spot weld were studied, the hardness of nugget and heat affected zone (HAZ) were also tested by metallographic microscope and microhardness tester. The strength of the spot weld with the different parts' area has been characterized. According to the experiments result, CAE model of spot weld with HAZ structure was established, and simulation results of different lap-shear CAE models were analyzed. The results show that the spot weld model which contained the HAZ has good performance and more suitable for engineering application in spot weld simulation.