WorldWideScience

Sample records for temporal trends 1983-2003

  1. Levels and temporal trends (1983-2003) of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and mercury (Hg) in seabird eggs from Northern Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helgason, Lisa B.; Barrett, Rob; Lie, Elisabeth; Polder, Anuschka; Skaare, Janneche U.; Gabrielsen, Geir W.

    2008-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to investigate possible temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and mercury in eggs of herring gulls (Larus argentatus), black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemots (Uria aalge) and Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) in Northern Norway. Eggs were collected in 1983, 1993 and 2003. Egg concentrations of POPs (PCB congeners IUPAC numbers: CB-28, 74, 66, 101, 99, 110, 149, 118, 153, 105, 141, 138, 187, 128, 156, 157, 180, 170, 194, 206, HCB, α-HCH, β-HCH, γ-HCH, oxychlordane, trans-chlordane, cis-chlordane, trans-nonachlor, cis-nonachlor, p,p'-DDE, o,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDD, o,p'-DDT and p,p'-DDT) and mercury were quantified. Generally, POP levels decreased between 1983 and 2003 in all species. No significant temporal trend in mercury levels was found between 1983 and 2003. - POP levels decreased between 1983 and 2003 in seabird eggs from Northern Norway

  2. Temporal trends in sperm count

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Hagai; Jørgensen, Niels; Martino-Andrade, Anderson

    2017-01-01

    a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years.......006, respectively). WIDER IMPLICATIONS: This comprehensive meta-regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because......BACKGROUND: Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: To provide a systematic review and meta-regression...

  3. Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U.; Poern, K.

    1997-04-01

    We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods

  4. Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, (Finland); Poern, K. [Poern Consulting, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    1997-04-01

    We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods. 14 refs, 10 figs.

  5. Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of temperature ... CGCM3; HadCM3; modified Mann–Kendall test; statistical analysis; Sutlej basin. ... Water Resources Systems Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247 ...

  6. Level and Temporal Trend of Perfluoroalkyl Acids in Greenlandic Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie

    bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different...... Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 19982005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were...... higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 19982005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs...

  7. Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie

    2012-01-01

    bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different...... Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 19982005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were...... higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 19982005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs...

  8. TEMPORAL TRENDS IN THE HEALTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA CORAL REEFS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, M.G., D.L. Santavy, L. MacLaughlin, E. Mueller, E. Peters, B. Quarles and J. Campbell. In press. Temporal Trends in the Health of South Florida Coral Reefs (Abstract). To be presented at the SETAC Fourth World Congress, 14-18 November 2004, Portland, OR. 1 p. (ERL,GB R100...

  9. Common Cause Failure Analysis of Control Rods and Drives in the Swedish and Finnish BWR Plants. Operating Experiences in 1983 - 2003

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mankamo, Tuomas [Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland)

    2006-11-15

    substantial time difference and/or spatial distance within the core. The exploration of CCF cases showed that the most prevalent factor in the CCF mechanisms was the time coupling by sequencing maintenance into refueling outages. Essential contributing factors were design changes, deviations or errors in maintenance or new types of replacement parts, accompanied by unexpected influences. An evident positive trend could be observed both for single failures and CCFs . Impact Vectors were used to expresses the conditional failure probability for the various multiplicity in CCF events, linking event analysis to the estimation of CCF model parameters. A reference application was made for the Forsmark 1 and 2 plant. The Common Load Model was used as parametric CCF model, which proved to be a practicable approach. This method provides a consistent handling of failure combinations and workable extension to evaluate localized dependence between adjacent control rod and drives. Also international experience and reference information were surveyed. The developed methods and collected data are utilized in the ongoing PSA updates for the Swedish BWRs and Olkiluoto 1 and 2. Review - within the project a detailed and project extern review has been performed, covering also the older CCF events. This do now guarantee that the CCF data for the control rods and drives in Swedish and Finnish BWR:s during the observation period 1983 - 2003, now can be judged as quality assured. The scope of this project was limited to collection, analysis and classification of CCF data, and reference application using the industry average of pooled data. It has not been the scope of this project to perform more comprehensive probabilistic studies on e.g., positive learning trends, impact of plant specific design details or different amount of failing control rods at different operational conditions in the reactor vessel and with different safety and support systems in operation. It has either been the scope to

  10. Spatial pattern and temporal trend of mortality due to tuberculosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Angélica Rêgo de Queiroz

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objectives: To describe the epidemiological profile of mortality due to tuberculosis (TB, to analyze the spatial pattern of these deaths and to investigate the temporal trend in mortality due to tuberculosis in Northeast Brazil. Methods: An ecological study based on secondary mortality data. Deaths due to TB were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were calculated and gross mortality rates were estimated and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Prais-Winsten’s regression was used to analyze the temporal trend in the TB mortality coefficients. The Kernel density technique was used to analyze the spatial distribution of TB mortality. Results: Tuberculosis was implicated in 236 deaths. The burden of tuberculosis deaths was higher amongst males, single people and people of mixed ethnicity, and the mean age at death was 51 years. TB deaths were clustered in the East, West and North health districts, and the tuberculosis mortality coefficient remained stable throughout the study period. Conclusions: Analyses of the spatial pattern and temporal trend in mortality revealed that certain areas have higher TB mortality rates, and should therefore be prioritized in public health interventions targeting the disease.

  11. Temporal trend analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Need, E.A.

    1994-01-01

    Statistical analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data at a uranium hexafluoride processing facility showed a statistically significant increase in the concentration of gross beta activity in monitor wells downgradient of surface impounds storing calcium fluoride sludge and high pH water. Because evidence of leakage had not been detected in lysimeters installed beneath the impounds, the operator sought an evaluation of other potential causes of the result, including natural variability. This study determined that all five data sets showed either long-term excursionary (spike-like), or seasonal forms of temporal variation. Gross beta had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that almost appeared to be seasonal. Gross alpha had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Specific conductance had both upward and downward long-term trends but no other variations. pH had a downward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Fluoride had a downward long-term trend without excursions but with clear seasonal variations. The gross beta result that appeared to be a significant change was a spike event on the upward long-term trend

  12. Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva C

    2012-03-19

    Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982-2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998-2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998-2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.

  13. Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manhai Long

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982–2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998–2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998–2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. Conclusions: We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.

  14. Temporal trends in physical activity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knuth, Alan G; Hallal, Pedro C

    2009-09-01

    In spite of all accumulated scientific knowledge on the benefits of physical activity (PA) for health, high rates of sedentary lifestyle are still observed worldwide. The aim of this study was to systematically review articles on temporal trends of PA and fitness, with emphasis on differences between children/ adolescents and adults. An electronic search at the Medline/PubMed database was carried out using the following combination of keywords: temporal trends or trends or surveillance or monitoring and PA or exercise or physical fitness or motor activity or sedentary or fitness. By using this strategy, 23,088 manuscripts were detected. After examination, 41 articles fulfilled all inclusion criteria, and were, therefore, included. The data currently available in the literature for adults shows that leisure-time activity levels tend to be increasing over time, while occupational-related PA is decreasing over time. Youth PA seems to be decreasing over time, including a lower level of activity in physical education classes. As a consequence, fitness levels are also declining. PA surveillance must be strongly encouraged in all settings and age groups. Special attention must be paid to low and middle-income countries, where PA surveillance is virtually inexistent.

  15. Temporal and Spatial Trend of Climate Variability in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Duc Luong Nguyen

    2014-01-01

    Vietnam’s long coastline, geographic location, and diverse topography and climates contribute to its being one of the most hazard-prone countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Given that a high proportion of the country’s population and economic assets are located in coastal lowlands and deltas, Vietnam has been ranked among the five countries likely to be most affected by global climate change. This paper aims at providing a short overview on the temporal and spatial trends of climate variabil...

  16. Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.

    2018-04-01

    Over recent decades, studies have examined various morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with heat exposure. This review explores the collective knowledge of the temporal trends of heat on human health, with regard to the hypothesis that humans are less vulnerable to heat events presently than in the past. Using Web of Science and Scopus, the authors identified all peer-reviewed articles that contained keywords on human impact (e.g. mortality, morbidity) and meteorological component (e.g. heat, heatwave). After sorting, a total of 71 articles, both case studies and epidemiological studies, contained explicit assessments of temporal trends in human vulnerability, and thus were used in this review. Most of the studies utilized mortality data, focused on the developed world, and showed a general decrease in heat sensitivity. Factors such as the implementation of a heat warning system, increased awareness, and improved quality of life were cited as contributing factors that led to the decreased impact of heat. Despite the overall recent decreases in heat vulnerability, spatial variability was shown, and differences with respect to health outcomes were also discussed. Several papers noted increases in heat’s impact on human health, particularly when unprecedented conditions occurred. Further, many populations, from outdoor workers to rural residents, in addition to the populations in much of the developing world, have been significantly underrepresented in research to date, and temporal changes in their vulnerability should be assessed in future studies. Moreover, continued monitoring and improvement of heat intervention is needed; with projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat events combined with shifts in demographics, heat will remain a major public health issue moving forward.

  17. Temporal trends in United States dew point temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Peter J.

    2000-07-01

    In this study, hourly data for the 1951-1990 period for 178 stations in the coterminous United States were used to establish temporal trends in dew point temperature. Although the data had been quality controlled previously (Robinson, 1998. Monthly variations of dew point temperatures in the coterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology 18: 1539-1556), comparisons of values between nearby stations suggested that instrumental changes, combined with locational changes, may have modified the results by as much as 1°C during the 40-year period. Nevertheless, seasonally averaged results indicated an increase over much of the area, of slightly over 1°C/100 years in spring and autumn, slightly less than this in summer. Winter displayed a drying of over 1°C/100 years. When only the 1961-1990 period was considered, the patterns were similar and trends increased by approximately 1-2°C/100 years, except in autumn, which displayed a slight drying. Analyses for specific stations indicated periods of both increasing and decreasing Td, the change between them varying with observation hour. No single change point was common over a wide area, although January commonly indicated maximum values early in the period in the east and west, and much later in the north-central portion. Rates of increase were generally higher in daytime than at night, especially in summer. Investigation of the inter-decadal differences in dew point, as a function of wind conditions, indicated that changes during calm conditions were commonly similar in magnitude to that of the overall average changes, suggesting an important role for the local hydrologic cycle in driving changes. Other inter-decadal changes could be attributed to the changes in the frequency and moisture content of invading air-streams. This was particularly clear for the changes in north-south flow in the interior.

  18. Temporal trend, geographic distribution, and publication quality in asbestos research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugolini, Donatella; Bonassi, Stefano; Cristaudo, Alfonso; Leoncini, Giacomo; Ratto, Giovanni Battista; Neri, Monica

    2015-05-01

    Asbestos is a well-known cause of cancer and respiratory diseases. The aim of the current study was to investigate the scientific production in asbestos research evaluating temporal trend, geographic distribution, impact factor (IF) of published literature, and taking into account socioeconomic variables. The PubMed database was searched starting from 1970. Publication numbers and IF were evaluated as absolute values and after standardization by population and gross domestic product (GDP). Six thousand nine hundred seven articles related to asbestos were retrieved. Publications grew steeply in the 1970s, leveled off in the 1980s, decreased in the 1990s, and then increased again. Mesothelioma, lung neoplasms, and occupational diseases are the most commonly used keywords. In the period of 1988-2011, 4220 citations were retrieved, 3187 of whom had an impact factor. The US, Italy, and the UK were the most productive countries. European countries published about 20 % more asbestos-related articles than the US, although the latter reached a higher mean IF, ranking second after Australia. When the national scientific production (sum of IF) was compared taking into account socioeconomic variables, Australia and Scandinavian countries performed very well, opposite to all main asbestos producers like Russia, China, and Brazil (except for Canada). The American Journal of Industrial Medicine and the Italian La Medicina del Lavoro published the highest numbers of articles. This study provides the first bibliometric analysis of scientific production in asbestos research. Interest appears to be higher in selected countries, with strong national features, and is growing again in the new millennium.

  19. Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisht, Deepak Singh; Chatterjee, Chandranath; Raghuwanshi, Narendra Singh; Sridhar, Venkataramana

    2018-04-01

    Daily gridded high-resolution rainfall data of India Meteorological Department at 0.25° spatial resolution (1901-2015) was analyzed to detect the trend in seasonal, annual, and maximum cumulative rainfall for 1, 2, 3, and 5 days. The present study was carried out for 85 river basins of India during 1901-2015 and pre- and post-urbanization era, i.e., 1901-1970 and 1971-2015, respectively. Mann-Kendall ( α = 0.05) and Theil-Sen's tests were employed for detecting the trend and percentage of change over the period of time, respectively. Daily extreme rainfall events, above 95 and 99 percentile threshold, were also analyzed to detect any trend in their magnitude and number of occurrences. The upward trend was found for the majority of the sub-basins for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-day maximum cumulative rainfall during the post-urbanization era. The magnitude of extreme threshold events is also found to be increasing in the majority of the river basins during the post-urbanization era. A 30-year moving window analysis further revealed a widespread upward trend in a number of extreme threshold rainfall events possibly due to urbanization and climatic factors. Overall trends studied against intra-basin trend across Ganga basin reveal the mixed pattern of trends due to inherent spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, therefore, highlighting the importance of scale for such studies.

  20. Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

    2017-01-01

    Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

  1. Spatial and Temporal Streamflow Trends in Northern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Feng Yeh

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow is an important factor in the study of water resource management, floods, and droughts. Dramatic climate change has created extreme rainfall distributions, making the study of streamflow trends and variability even more crucial. In this study, the long-term streamflow data and trends recorded at gauging stations in Northern Taiwan are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The data used for trend analysis are the average annual streamflow, the average seasonal streamflow, and the high and low flows. The slope trend is calculated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Finally, change point analysis is conducted using the Mann-Whitney-Pettit test and the cumulative deviation test to gain further information about the change points and to understand the changes in streamflow before and after the change points. The average annual streamflow of the 12 gauging stations in the study area is analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The results show that of the 12 gauging stations, only the Ximen Bridge Station in the Lanyang River basin show a significant downward streamflow trend. Results of the monthly and seasonal average streamflow analysis show that in the spring, 72.2% of the gauging stations showed upward streamflow trends, most of which were located in the Tamsui River and the Touqian River basins. The high and low flow data analysis shows that the Ximen Bridge Station was the only gauging station to feature a significant downward streamflow trend for both high and low flows. This distribution pattern provides valuable information for regional hydrological studies and water management.

  2. SOMA: A Proposed Framework for Trend Mining in Large UK Diabetic Retinopathy Temporal Databases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somaraki, Vassiliki; Harding, Simon; Broadbent, Deborah; Coenen, Frans

    In this paper, we present SOMA, a new trend mining framework; and Aretaeus, the associated trend mining algorithm. The proposed framework is able to detect different kinds of trends within longitudinal datasets. The prototype trends are defined mathematically so that they can be mapped onto the temporal patterns. Trends are defined and generated in terms of the frequency of occurrence of pattern changes over time. To evaluate the proposed framework the process was applied to a large collection of medical records, forming part of the diabetic retinopathy screening programme at the Royal Liverpool University Hospital.

  3. Sirenomelia in Argentina: Prevalence, geographic clusters and temporal trends analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Boris; Liascovich, Rosa; Gili, Juan Antonio; Barbero, Pablo; Bidondo, María Paz

    2016-07-01

    Sirenomelia is a severe malformation of the lower body characterized by a single medial lower limb and a variable combination of visceral abnormalities. Given that Sirenomelia is a very rare birth defect, epidemiological studies are scarce. The aim of this study is to evaluate prevalence, geographic clusters and time trends of sirenomelia in Argentina, using data from the National Network of Congenital Anomalies of Argentina (RENAC) from November 2009 until December 2014. This is a descriptive study using data from the RENAC, a hospital-based surveillance system for newborns affected with major morphological congenital anomalies. We calculated sirenomelia prevalence throughout the period, searched for geographical clusters, and evaluated time trends. The prevalence of confirmed cases of sirenomelia throughout the period was 2.35 per 100,000 births. Cluster analysis showed no statistically significant geographical aggregates. Time-trends analysis showed that the prevalence was higher in years 2009 to 2010. The observed prevalence was higher than the observed in previous epidemiological studies in other geographic regions. We observed a likely real increase in the initial period of our study. We used strict diagnostic criteria, excluding cases that only had clinical diagnosis of sirenomelia. Therefore, real prevalence could be even higher. This study did not show any geographic clusters. Because etiology of sirenomelia has not yet been established, studies of epidemiological features of this defect may contribute to define its causes. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 106:604-611, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Distribution-level electricity reliability: Temporal trends using statistical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eto, Joseph H.; LaCommare, Kristina H.; Larsen, Peter; Todd, Annika; Fisher, Emily

    2012-01-01

    This paper helps to address the lack of comprehensive, national-scale information on the reliability of the U.S. electric power system by assessing trends in U.S. electricity reliability based on the information reported by the electric utilities on power interruptions experienced by their customers. The research analyzes up to 10 years of electricity reliability information collected from 155 U.S. electric utilities, which together account for roughly 50% of total U.S. electricity sales. We find that reported annual average duration and annual average frequency of power interruptions have been increasing over time at a rate of approximately 2% annually. We find that, independent of this trend, installation or upgrade of an automated outage management system is correlated with an increase in the reported annual average duration of power interruptions. We also find that reliance on IEEE Standard 1366-2003 is correlated with higher reported reliability compared to reported reliability not using the IEEE standard. However, we caution that we cannot attribute reliance on the IEEE standard as having caused or led to higher reported reliability because we could not separate the effect of reliance on the IEEE standard from other utility-specific factors that may be correlated with reliance on the IEEE standard. - Highlights: ► We assess trends in electricity reliability based on the information reported by the electric utilities. ► We use rigorous statistical techniques to account for utility-specific differences. ► We find modest declines in reliability analyzing interruption duration and frequency experienced by utility customers. ► Installation or upgrade of an OMS is correlated to an increase in reported duration of power interruptions. ► We find reliance in IEEE Standard 1366 is correlated with higher reported reliability.

  5. Temporal trends in metal pollution: using bird excrement as indicator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa M M Berglund

    Full Text Available Past mining and smelting activities have resulted in metal polluted environments all over the world, but long-term monitoring data is often scarce, especially in higher trophic levels. In this study we used bird (Parus major and Ficedula hypoleuca excrement to monitor metal pollution in the terrestrial environment following 16 years of continuously reduced emissions from a copper/nickel smelter in Finland. In the early 1990s, lead and cadmium concentrations dropped significantly in excrement, but the reduction did not directly reflect the changes in atmospheric emission from the smelter. This is likely due to a continuous contribution of metals also from the soil pool. We conclude that bird excrement can be used to assess changes in the environment as a whole but not specifically changes in atmospheric emission. Inter-annual variation in excrement concentration of especially copper and nickel demonstrates the importance of long-term monitoring to discern significant trends.

  6. Temporal trends of preservative allergy in Denmark (1985-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyssen, Jacob P; Engkilde, Kåre; Lundov, Michael D; Carlsen, Berit C; Menné, Torkil; Johansen, Jeanne D

    2010-02-01

    Most cosmetics and industrial products contain preservatives. Preservative allergy is common and, historically, changing contact allergy epidemics caused by preservatives have been observed. In 1997, Alan Dillarstone predicted a stable development of preservative allergy following mandatory ingredient labelling on cosmetic products. To investigate the development in the prevalence of preservative allergy in Denmark over a 24-year period (1985-2008) and to challenge the prediction made by Dillarstone. A retrospective analysis of patch test data was performed (n = 18179). Comparisons were made using a chi(2) test. Logistic regression analyses were used to test for associations. The development of preservative allergy mirrored those of other European patch test centres. The development was not dependent on sex or age group. The prevalence was higher among women and those aged 41-60 years. Formaldehyde allergy was persistently prevalent over the study years. The overall prevalence of preservative allergy increased significantly (P(trend) = 0.001), mainly because of patch testing with additional preservatives in recent years. Dillarstone's prediction was confirmed as the prevalence of contact allergy to individual preservatives remained relatively stable. However, the overall burden of preservative allergy seemed to increase. Introduction of new preservatives may add to the burden of contact allergy.

  7. Temporal trends in pharmacology publications by pharmacy institutes: A deeper dig

    OpenAIRE

    Bhatt, Parloop Amit; Patel, Zarana

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Publications in Indian Journal of Pharmacology (IJP) are the face of contemporary pharmacology practices followed in health-care profession - a knowledge-based profession. It depicts trends in terms of quantity (proportions), quality, type (preclinical/clinical), thrust areas, etc., of pharmacology followed by biomedical community professions both nationally and internationally. This article aims to establish temporal trends in pharmacology research by pharmacy institutes in light ...

  8. Hazardous and radioactive substances in Danish marine waters. Status and temporal trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahlloef, I; Andersen, Jesper H

    2009-07-15

    This book fulfils the Danish reporting obligations in relation to the OSPAR Trend Assessment on Dangerous Substances, and describes the degree of contamination from hazardous and radioactive substances and their temporal trends, as well as the effects of some of these hazardous substances, in the Danish marine environment. The assessment is based on existing information, primarily data collected via national and regional Danish monitoring activities until 2004. (author)

  9. Hazardous and radioactive substances in Danish marine waters. Status and temporal trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahlloef, I.; Andersen, Jesper H.

    2009-07-01

    This book fulfils the Danish reporting obligations in relation to the OSPAR Trend Assessment on Dangerous Substances, and describes the degree of contamination from hazardous and radioactive substances and their temporal trends, as well as the effects of some of these hazardous substances, in the Danish marine environment. The assessment is based on existing information, primarily data collected via national and regional Danish monitoring activities until 2004. (author)

  10. Temporal trends in the prescription of vitamin K antagonists in patients with atrial fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friberg, J; Gislason, G H; Gadsbøll, N

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Anticoagulation therapy is recommended in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and risk factors for stroke. We studied the temporal trends in the prescription of vitamin K antagonists (VKA) in patients with a first hospital diagnosis of AF in Denmark, 1995-2002. DESIGN: The Danish...

  11. Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kumar Taxak

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

  12. Spatio-temporal trends in monthly pan evaporation in Aguascalientes, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Alvarez, Osias; Singh, Vijay P.; Medina, Juan Enciso; Munster, Clyde; Kaiser, Ronald; Ontiveros-Capurata, Ronald Ernesto; Diaz-Garcia, Luis Antonio; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa

    2018-05-01

    Emission of greenhouse gases is being alleged to be causing climate change in different regions of the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of monthly evaporation at 52 weather stations in the state of Aguascalientes (Mexico) which have hydrometeorological records of long periods. The autocorrelation was eliminated with an auto-regressive model, and the trend was determined using the Spearman (S) and Kendall (K) tests. The statistical significance of the trend was determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient (r s) and the Z statistic (the test statistic of the normal distribution) both indicated that that there were statistically significant trends in 107 time series, of these 88 series had negative trends and 19 series had positive trends. Negative trends were present in all months of the year, while positive trends occurred from February to May and from October to December only. The reduction of evaporation from - 4.10 to - 20.50 mm/month/year from June to September showed a hopeful future scenario for rainfed agriculture. Irrigated agriculture during dry months could have a reduction of irrigation requirements as a consequence of the reduction in reference and crop evapotranspiration. The evaporation increase during dry months could increase irrigation requirements and pumping, mainly in March, April, and November when there are trends with increases of about 26.90, 24.60, and 23.90 mm/month/year, respectively. The spatial variability of evaporation trend means that other effects of climate change could vary in different parts of the state. Results of this study will be useful for farmers and institutions in charge of the administration of water resources for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change.

  13. Temporal trends in dancing among adults between 1994 and 2012: The Health Survey for England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassallo, Amy Jo; Hiller, Claire E; Pappas, Evangelos; Stamatakis, Emmanuel

    2018-01-01

    The benefits of physical activity are established, however, increasing population physical activity levels remains a challenge. Participating in activities that are enjoyable and multidimensional, such as dancing, are associated with better adherence. However, the extent to which the general population participates in dancing and its temporal trends has not been well studied. The aim of this study was to investigate temporal trends and patterns and correlates of dance participation in England from 1994 to 2012 using a series of large nationally representative surveys. We used data from the Health Survey for England 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2012 to examine dance temporal trends. Temporal trends data were age-standardized and correlates of dance participation were examined for males and females over each study year. Changes in population prevalence of dance participation were determined using multiple logistical regression with 1997 as the reference year. Of all survey participants (n=98,178) 7.8% (95%CI: 7.63-7.96) reported dance participation. There was a marked steady decrease over time, with the steepest decline from 2003 onwards. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for dance participation were 0.51 for males (95%CI 0.408-0.630, p<0.001) and 0.69 for females (95%CI: 0.598-0.973, p<0.001) in 2012 compared to 1997. Dance participation in adults in England has decreased markedly over time. This study suggests that dance is not being adequately utilized as a health enhancing physical activity, and therefore further research and resources should be dedicated to supporting dance in the community. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

  15. Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara L. Crewe

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1 in the wrong direction, or (2 with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.

  16. Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

  17. Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jing; Huang, Qiang; Chang, Jianxia; Liu, Dengfeng; Huang, Shengzhi; Shi, Xiaoyu

    2015-05-01

    The Wei River is the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China. The relationship between runoff and precipitation in the Wei River Basin has been changed due to the changing climate and increasingly intensified human activities. In this paper, we determine abrupt changes in hydro-climatic variables and identify the main driving factors for the changes in the Wei River Basin. The nature of the changes is analysed based on data collected at twenty-one weather stations and five hydrological stations in the period of 1960-2010. The sequential Mann-Kendall test analysis is used to capture temporal trends and abrupt changes in the five sub-catchments of the Wei River Basin. A non-parametric trend test at the basin scale for annual data shows a decreasing trend of precipitation and runoff over the past fifty-one years. The temperature exhibits an increase trend in the entire period. The potential evaporation was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith equation, presenting an increasing trend of evaporation since 1990. The stations with a significant decreasing trend in annual runoff mainly are located in the west of the Wei River primarily interfered by human activities. Regression analysis indicates that human activity was possibly the main cause of the decline of runoff after 1970. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation in Guizhou province based on GIS technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Fengtai; Pan, Yuanfen; Li, Wei; Cao, Guangjie; An, Youzhi

    2018-02-01

    Precipitation changes are closely related to human production and life. Based on the data of Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2012, the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou Province were analyzed from the annual, seasonal and monthly scales by linear trend analysis and ArcGIS kriging spatial interpolation. The results show that the annual precipitation is mainly concentrated in the summer, accounting for 47.6% of the year, followed by spring accounted for 26.9%, autumn accounted for 18.6% in winter accounted for 6.9%. In the time, the precipitation in the study area shows a decreasing trend in the annual scale, seasonal scale and July. The overall spatial precipitation distribution shows a decreasing trend from the east to the west. The precipitation also in the south is higher than the northern region.

  19. Predicting temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for civil service employees of a federal public health agency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spears, D Ross; McNeil, Carrie; Warnock, Eli; Trapp, Jonathan; Oyinloye, Oluremi; Whitehurst, Vanessa; Decker, K C; Chapman, Sandy; Campbell, Morris; Meechan, Paul

    2014-06-01

    This study evaluates the predictability in temporal absences trends due to all causes (total absenteeism) among employees at a federal agency. The objective is to determine how leave trends vary within the year, and determine whether trends are predictable. Ten years of absenteeism data from an attendance system were analyzed for rates of total absence. Trends over a 10-year period followed predictable and regular patterns during a given year that correspond to major holiday periods. Temporal trends in leave among small, medium, and large facilities compared favorably with the agency as a whole. Temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for an organization can be determined using its attendance system. The ability to predict employee absenteeism rates can be extremely helpful for management in optimizing business performance and ensuring that an organization meets its mission.

  20. Temporal Bone Osteomyelitis: The Relationship with Malignant Otitis Externa, the Diagnostic Dilemma, and Changing Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Cheng Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Fifty-five patients hospitalized for osteomyelitis of the temporal bone between 1990 and 2011 were divided into two study groups: group 1 was patients collected from 1990 to 2001 and group 2 was composed of patients between 2002 and 2011. Clinical diagnostic criteria and epidemiologic data were analyzed to illustrate the altering features of osteomyelitis of the temporal bone. Group 1 patients were characterized by high prevalence of diabetes and more commonly suffered from otalgia, otitis externa and granulation tissue in the external auditory canal and higher positive culture for Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Noticeable changing trends were found between both groups, including declining prevalence of diabetes, fewer patients complaining of pain or presenting with otitis externa, and canal granulation, and increased variety of pathogens in group 2. We should highlight the index of clinical suspicion for osteomyelitis of the temporal bone, even in nondiabetic or immunocompetent patients. Painless otorrhea patients were also at risk of osteomyelitis of the temporal bone, especially patients with previous otologic operation. Increased multiplicity of pathogens amplified the difficulty of diagnosis for osteomyelitis of the temporal bone.

  1. Reevaluation of Stratospheric Ozone Trends From SAGE II Data Using a Simultaneous Temporal and Spatial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damadeo, R. P.; Zawodny, J. M.; Thomason, L. W.

    2014-01-01

    This paper details a new method of regression for sparsely sampled data sets for use with time-series analysis, in particular the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II ozone data set. Non-uniform spatial, temporal, and diurnal sampling present in the data set result in biased values for the long-term trend if not accounted for. This new method is performed close to the native resolution of measurements and is a simultaneous temporal and spatial analysis that accounts for potential diurnal ozone variation. Results show biases, introduced by the way data is prepared for use with traditional methods, can be as high as 10%. Derived long-term changes show declines in ozone similar to other studies but very different trends in the presumed recovery period, with differences up to 2% per decade. The regression model allows for a variable turnaround time and reveals a hemispheric asymmetry in derived trends in the middle to upper stratosphere. Similar methodology is also applied to SAGE II aerosol optical depth data to create a new volcanic proxy that covers the SAGE II mission period. Ultimately this technique may be extensible towards the inclusion of multiple data sets without the need for homogenization.

  2. Accumulation features and temporal trends of PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs in Baikal seals (Pusa sibirica)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imaeda, Daisuke; Kunisue, Tatsuya; Ochi, Yoko; Iwata, Hisato; Tsydenova, Oyuna; Takahashi, Shin; Amano, Masao; Petrov, Evgeny A.; Batoev, Valeriy B.; Tanabe, Shinsuke

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the accumulation features and temporal trends of PCDD/Fs, dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs) and non-dioxin-like PCBs (NDL-PCBs) in the blubber of Baikal seals collected in 1992 and 2005. DL-PCBs (480-3600 ng/g) and NDL-PCBs (980-35,000 ng/g) were dominant contaminants. Concentrations of PCDDs and PCBs in males were significantly higher than in females. In males, age-dependent accumulation was observed for PCDDs, mono-ortho PCBs and NDL-PCBs. PCDFs and non-ortho PCBs showed no such trends, implying that exposure of seals to these contaminants has been decreasing in recent years. No decreasing temporal trend was observed for PCDDs, mono-ortho PCBs and NDL-PCBs, suggesting that Baikal seals are still exposed to PCDDs and PCBs. TEQs of PCDDs and mono-ortho PCBs in seals collected in 2005 accounted for 62-77% of total TEQs. The TEQ levels in 40% of the specimens exceeded the threshold level for immunosuppression observed in harbor seals (209 pg/g). - Concentrations of PCDDs and PCBs remain high in Baikal seals

  3. Spatial and Temporal Trends of Snowfall in Central New York - A Lake Effect Dominated Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartnett, Justin Joseph

    Central New York is located in one of the snowiest regions in the United States, with the city of Syracuse, New York the snowiest metropolis in the nation. Snowfall in the region generally begins in mid-November and lasts until late-March. Snow accumulation occurs from a multitude of conditions: frontal systems, mid-latitude cyclones, Nor'easters, and most notably lake-effect storms. Lake effect snowfall (LES) is a difficult parameter to forecast due to the isolated and highly variable nature of the storm. Consequently, studies have attempted to determine changes in snowfall for lake-effect dominated regions. Annual snowfall patterns are of particular concern as seasonal snowfall totals are vital for water resources, winter businesses, agriculture, government and state agencies, and much more. Through the use of snowfall, temperature, precipitation, and location data from the National Weather Service's Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), spatial and temporal changes in snowfall for Central New York were determined. In order to determine climatic changes in snowfall, statistical analyses were performed (i.e. least squares estimation, correlations, principal component analyses, etc.) and spatial maps analyzed. Once snowfall trends were determined, factors influencing the trends were examined. Long-term snowfall trends for CNY were positive for original stations (˜0.46 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1) and homogenously filtered stations (0.23 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1). However, snowfall trends for shorter time-increments within the long-term period were not consistent, as positive, negative, and neutral trends were calculated. Regional differences in snowfall trends were observed for CNY as typical lake-effect areas (northern counties, the Tug Hill Plateau and the Southern Hills) experienced larger snowfall trends than areas less dominated by LES. Typical lake-effect months (December - February) experienced the greatest snowfall trend in CNY compared to other winter months. The

  4. Global Incidence and Mortality for Prostate Cancer: Analysis of Temporal Patterns and Trends in 36 Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Martin C S; Goggins, William B; Wang, Harry H X; Fung, Franklin D H; Leung, Colette; Wong, Samuel Y S; Ng, Chi Fai; Sung, Joseph J Y

    2016-11-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, but its specific geographic patterns and temporal trends are under-researched. To test the hypotheses that PCa incidence is higher and PCa mortality is lower in countries with higher socioeconomic development, and that temporal trends for PCa incidence have increased while mortality has decreased over time. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 36 countries using data obtained from Cancer incidence in five continents volumes I-X and the World Health Organization mortality database. Correlations between incidence or mortality rates and socioeconomic indicators (human development index [HDI] and gross domestic product [GDP]) were evaluated. The average annual percent change in PCa incidence and mortality in the most recent 10 yr according to join-point regression. Reported PCa incidence rates varied more than 25-fold worldwide in 2012, with the highest incidence rates observed in Micronesia/Polynesia, the USA, and European countries. Mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates except for Africa, where PCa mortality rates were the highest. Countries with higher HDI (r=0.58) and per capita GDP (r=0.62) reported greater incidence rates. According to the most recent 10-yr temporal data available, most countries experienced increases in incidence, with sharp rises in incidence rates in Asia and Northern and Western Europe. A substantial reduction in mortality rates was reported in most countries, except in some Asian countries and Eastern Europe, where mortality increased. Data in regional registries could be underestimated. PCa incidence has increased while PCa mortality has decreased in most countries. The reported incidence was higher in countries with higher socioeconomic development. The incidence of prostate cancer has shown high variations geographically and over time, with smaller

  5. Temporal Trends and Future Predictions of Mercury Concentrations in Northwest Greenland Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) Hair

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietz, Rune; Born, E.W.; Riget, Frank Farsø

    2011-01-01

    -2008 concentrations ofHg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call......Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafterHg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly...

  6. Temporal trends and epidemiological aspects of ciguatera in French Polynesia: a 10-year analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chateau-Degat, Marie-Ludivine; Dewailly, Eric; Cerf, Nicole; Nguyen, Ngoc Lam; Huin-Blondey, Marie-Odile; Hubert, Bruno; Laudon, François; Chansin, René

    2007-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to report the temporal trends of the incidence of ciguatera poisoning from 1992 to 2001 in French Polynesia. This retrospective study analysed 7842 cases of ciguatera disease recorded over a period of 10 years. The annual incidence varied from 26.3 to 41.9 per 10,000 person-years. An analysis of cases grouped by archipelago revealed differences in incidences (P ciguatera poisoning appeared relatively stable during the 10 years of the study period. However, the gradient of remoteness observed suggests an adaptation of management of ciguatera disease to each archipelago.

  7. Reconstructing temporal trends in heavy metal deposition: assessing the value of herbarium moss samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shotbolt, L; Büker, P; Ashmore, M R

    2007-05-01

    The use of the herbarium moss archive for investigating past atmospheric deposition of Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb was evaluated. Moss samples from five UK regions collected over 150 years were analysed for 26 elements using ICP-MS. Principal components analysis identified soil as a significant source of Ni and As and atmospheric deposition as the main source of Pb and Cu. Sources of Zn and Cd concentrations were identified to be at least partly atmospheric, but require further investigation. Temporal and spatial trends in metal concentrations in herbarium mosses showed that the highest Pb and Cu levels are found in Northern England in the late 19th century. Metal concentrations in herbarium moss samples were consistently higher than those in mosses collected from the field in 2000. Herbarium moss samples are concluded to be a useful resource to contribute to reconstructing trends in Pb and Cu deposition, but not, without further analysis, for Cd, Zn, As and Ni.

  8. Spatial distributions and temporal trends in polybrominated diphenyl ethers in Detroit River suspended sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvin, Chris; Waltho, Jasmine; Jia, Julia; Burniston, Debbie

    2013-05-01

    Suspended sediments from the Detroit River were collected using sediment traps at sites ranging from western Lake Erie to southern Lake St. Clair to assess spatial distributions and temporal trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). The distribution of PBDEs in suspended sediments in the Detroit River appeared influenced by shoreline-based contemporary urban and industrial activities, which stood in contrast to PCBs that were associated with areas of historic industrial activity. Temporal trend data indicate that total PBDE concentrations decreased in the period after 2000 in response to cessation of production of the penta- and octa BDE formulations. Concentrations of total PBDEs ranged from roughly 7 ng g(-1) (4 ng g(-1) BDE 209) in southern Lake St. Clair to several hundred ng g(-1) (60-180 ng g(-1) BDE 209) in the lower reaches of the Detroit River. The widespread occurrence of PBDEs in Detroit River suspended sediments suggests that large urban areas can act as diffuse sources of these chemicals that are used in modern industrial applications and consumer products. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Spatial and temporal trends in alcohol consumption in Belgian cities: A wastewater-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boogaerts, Tim; Covaci, Adrian; Kinyua, Juliet; Neels, Hugo; van Nuijs, Alexander L N

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, scientific evidence has emerged that wastewater-based epidemiology can deliver complementary information concerning the use of different substances of abuse. In this study, the potential of wastewater-based epidemiology in monitoring spatial and temporal trends in alcohol consumption in different populations in Belgium has been examined. Concentrations of ethyl sulphate, a minor Phase-II metabolite of ethanol, in 163 influent wastewater samples from eight wastewater treatment plants in Belgium in the period 2013-2015 were measured with liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry and used to estimate alcohol consumption. The highest levels of alcohol consumption were detected in the metropoles Antwerp and Brussels compared to smaller villages. Annual variations were detected, with a higher alcohol consumption measured in 2013 compared with 2014. The weekly pattern showed a clear week and weekend difference in alcohol use, with intermediate levels on Monday and Friday. The results were extrapolated and a use of 5.6L pure alcohol per year per inhabitant aged 15+ has been estimated in Belgium. The comparison with available information on drinking habits of the Belgian population further demonstrated the usefulness of the wastewater-based epidemiology approach. This is the largest wastewater-based epidemiology study monitoring alcohol consumption to date, demonstrating that objective and quick information on spatio-temporal trends in alcohol consumption on a local and (inter)national scale can be obtained. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Temporal Trends in Exposure to Organophosphate Flame Retardants in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Kate; Butt, Craig M; Webster, Thomas F; Preston, Emma V; Hammel, Stephanie C; Makey, Colleen; Lorenzo, Amelia M; Cooper, Ellen M; Carignan, Courtney; Meeker, John D; Hauser, Russ; Soubry, Adelheid; Murphy, Susan K; Price, Thomas M; Hoyo, Cathrine; Mendelsohn, Emma; Congleton, Johanna; Daniels, Julie L; Stapleton, Heather M

    2017-03-14

    During the past decade, use of organophosphate compounds as flame retardants and plasticizers has increased. Numerous studies investigating biomarkers (i.e., urinary metabolites) demonstrate ubiquitous human exposure and suggest that human exposure may be increasing. To formally assess temporal trends, we combined data from 14 U.S. epidemiologic studies for which our laboratory group previously assessed exposure to two commonly used organophosphate compounds, tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCIPP) and triphenyl phosphate (TPHP). Using individual-level data and samples collected between 2002 and 2015, we assessed temporal and seasonal trends in urinary bis(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (BDCIPP) and diphenyl phosphate (DPHP), the metabolites of TDCIPP and TPHP, respectively. Data suggest that BDCIPP concentrations have increased dramatically since 2002. Samples collected in 2014 and 2015 had BDCIPP concentrations that were more than 15 times higher than those collected in 2002 and 2003 (10 β = 16.5; 95% confidence interval from 9.64 to 28.3). Our results also demonstrate significant increases in DPHP levels; however, increases were much smaller than for BDCIPP. Additionally, results suggest that exposure varies seasonally, with significantly higher levels of exposure in summer for both TDCIPP and TPHP. Given these increases, more research is needed to determine whether the levels of exposure experienced by the general population are related to adverse health outcomes.

  11. Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xiaodong

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China. Methods The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables. Results A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May and winter (November to January, during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH0, MT1, RH1, and MWV1; component 2 represented RH2, MaxT3, and MAP3; and component 3 represented MaxT2, MAP2, and MWV2. The PCR model

  12. Spatial and temporal trends from an air quality sensor network near a heavily trafficked intersection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlando, P.; Vo, D.; Giossi, C.; George, L.

    2017-12-01

    With the world-wide increase in urbanization and the increasing usage of combustion vehicles in urban areas, traffic-related air pollution is a growing health hazard. However, there are limited studies that examine the spatial and temporal impacts of traffic-related pollutants within cities. In particular, there are few studies that look at traffic management and its potential for pollution mitigation. In a previous study we examined roadway pollution and traffic parameters with one roadway station instrumented with standard measurement instruments. With the advent of low-cost air pollution sensors, we have expanded our work by observing multiple sites within a neighborhood to understand spatial and temporal exposures. We have deployed a high-density sensor network around urban arterial corridors in SE Portland, Oregon. This network consisted of ten nodes measuring CO, NO, NO2 and O3, and ten nodes measuring CO, CO2, VOC and PM2.5. The co-location of standard measurement instruments provided insight towards the utility of our low-cost sensor network, as the different nodes varied in cost, and potentially in quality. We have identified near-real-time temporal trends and local-scale spatial patterns during the summer of 2017. Meteorological and traffic data were included to further characterize these patterns, exploring the potential for pollution mitigation.

  13. Spatial and temporal trends of contaminants in eggs of wading birds from San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hothem, R.L.; Roster, D.L.; King, K.A.; Keldsen, T.J.; Marois, Katherine C.; Wainwright, S.E.

    1995-01-01

    Between 1989 and 1991, reproduction by black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and snowy egrets (Egretta thula) was studied at sites in San Francisco Bay. Eggs were collected from these and other bay sites and from South Wilbur Flood Area, a reference site in California's San Joaquin Valley. Eggs were analyzed for inorganic trace elements, organochlorine pesticides, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Results were compared among sites and years and with results of previous studies. There was some evidence of impaired reproduction, but concentrations of contaminants were generally lower than threshold levels for such effects. Egg hatchability was generally good, with predation being the factor that most limited reproductive success. Mean PCB concentrations were generally higher in eggs from the south end of San Francisco Bay than from the north, but the only temporal change, an increase, was observed at Alcatraz Island. There were spatial differences for p,p'-DDE in night-heron eggs in 1990, but the highest mean concentration of DDE was in night-heron eggs from South Wilbur in 1991. Temporal declines in maximum concentrations of DDE in eggs were observed in the bay, but means did not change significantly over time, At Bair Island in the southern end of the bay, mean concentrations of mercury decreased while selenium increased in night-heron eggs over time, but there were no clear bay-wide spatial or temporal trends for either element.

  14. Temporal trends and recent correlates in sedentary behaviours in Chinese children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dibley Michael J

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sedentary behaviours (television, video and computer are related to health outcomes independent of physical activity. Few studies have examined trends and correlates of sedentary behaviours among youth in developing nations. The current study is to examine temporal trends in sedentary behaviours and recent correlates of screen use in Chinese children during a period of economic transition. Methods Secondary analysis of China Health and Nutrition Surveys. Cross-sectional data on sedentary behaviours including screen use among children aged 6-18 years from four surveys in 1997 (n = 2,469, 2000 (n = 1,838, 2004 (n = 1,382 and 2006 (n = 1,128. Temporal trends in screen use by socio-demographic characteristics were examined. The correlates of spending more than 2 hours per day on screen time in the most recent survey data (2006, n = 986 were analysed using survey logistic regression analysis. Results Daily screen time significantly increased in each subgroup by age, sex and urban/rural residence, with the largest increase for urban boys aged 13-18 years from 0.5 hours to 1.7 hours, and for rural boys aged 6-12 years from 0.7 hours to 1.7 hours (p Conclusion This study confirms sedentary behaviour has increased over the last decade in Chinese children. Efforts to ensure Chinese youth meet screen time guidelines include limiting access to screen technologies and encouraging parents to monitor their own screen time and to set limits on their child's screen time.

  15. Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naif Fnais

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

  16. Temporal trends in pharmacology publications by pharmacy institutes: A deeper dig.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Parloop Amit; Patel, Zarana

    2016-10-01

    Publications in Indian Journal of Pharmacology (IJP) are the face of contemporary pharmacology practices followed in health-care profession - a knowledge-based profession. It depicts trends in terms of quantity (proportions), quality, type (preclinical/clinical), thrust areas, etc., of pharmacology followed by biomedical community professions both nationally and internationally. This article aims to establish temporal trends in pharmacology research by pharmacy institutes in light of its publications to IJP from 2010 to 2015. The website of IJP was searched for publications year and issue wise for contributing authors from pharmacy institutions and analyzed for types of publications, their source and the categories of research documented in these publications. A total of 1034 articles were published, of which 189 (18%) articles were published by pharmacy institutes, of which 90% ( n = 170) were contributed from pharmacy institutes within India whereas 10% ( n = 19) from international pharmacy institutes. 75% of these were research publication, the majority of which (65%) were related to preclinical screening of phytochemical constituents from plants. With multi and interdisciplinary collaborations in pharmacy profession the trend needs to improve toward molecular and cellular pharmacology and clinical studies.

  17. Temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Langhorne Peter

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are few studies that have investigated temporal trends in risk of recurrent stroke. The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland during 1986 to 2001. Methods Unadjusted survival analysis of time to first event, hospitalisation for recurrent stroke or death, was undertaken using the cumulative incidence method which takes into account competing risks. Regression on cumulative incidence functions was used to model the temporal trends of first recurrent stroke with adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status and comorbidity. Complete five year follow-up was obtained for all patients. Restricted cubic splines were used to determine the best fitting relationship between the survival events and study year. Results There were 128,511 incident hospitalisations for stroke in Scotland between 1986 and 2001, 57,351 (45% in men. A total of 13,835 (10.8% patients had a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke within five years of their incident hospitalisation. Another 74,220 (57.8% patients died within five years of their incident hospitalisation without first having a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke. Comparing incident stroke hospitalisations in 2001 with 1986, the adjusted risk of recurrent stroke hospitalisation decreased by 27%, HR = 0.73 95% CI (0.67 to 0.78, and the adjusted risk of death being the first event decreased by 28%, HR = 0.72 (0.70 to 0.75. Conclusions Over the 15-year period approximately 1 in 10 patients with an incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland went on to have a hospitalisation for recurrent stroke within five years. Approximately 6 in 10 patients died within five years without first having a recurrent stroke hospitalisation. Using hospitalisation and death data from an entire country over a 20-year period we have been able to demonstrate not only an improvement in survival following an

  18. Prevalence of Obesity Among Inuit in Greenland and Temporal Trend by Social Position

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Jørgensen, Marit Eika

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to analyze the temporal trend of obesity among Inuit in Greenland during 1993-2010 according to sex and relative social position. METHODS: Data (N = 5,123) were collected in cross-sectional health surveys among the Inuit in Greenland in 1993-1994, 1999......-2001, and 2005-2010. Sociodemographic information was obtained by interview. Information on obesity (body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference) was obtained by clinical examination and in 1993-1994 by interview. Statistics included multiple linear regression and Univariate General Linear Models. RESULTS......: Among men the prevalence of overweight (BMI 25-29.9) decreased while general obesity (BMI ≥ 30) did not change. Central obesity increased from 16.0% in 1993-1994 to 25.4% in 2005-2010 (P obesity increased. Central obesity increased from 31.3% in 1993-1994 to 54...

  19. Temporal trends of polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and perfluorinated compounds in Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) eggs (1984-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianxian, Sun; Hui, Peng; Jianying, Hu

    2015-02-03

    Because investigation on the temporal trends of persistent halogenated compounds (PHCs) is necessary to predict their future impacts on the environment and human health and evaluate the effectiveness of regulations on their production and usage, it is of concern to investigate annual temporal trends of PHCs in biota samples. This study examined the temporal trends of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) eggs over a period of 25 years (1984-2008), and 62 PCBs (19.2-1030 ng/g dw for total PCBs), 16 PBDEs (4.7-572 ng/g dw for total PBDEs), and 14 PFCs (26-46 ng/g dw for total PFCs) were detected. Although a decreasing temporal trend was observed for total PCBs with annual reduction rate of 3.4% (ρ = 0.005), a clear break point was observed around 1991, indicating their continuing emission in the 1980s in China. All major PBDEs showed increasing temporal trends, with annual change rates at 3.5-10.2% over the 25 years, but a sharp decreasing trend was observed after 2006, indicating a rapid response to the banning of PBDE usage in China in 2004. The greatest annual rate of increase was observed for BDE-28 (10.2%) followed by BDE-100 (7.7%), which would be due to metabolism input from higher brominated PBDEs. Significantly increasing temporal trends were observed for all PFCs, and the annual rates of increase were 7.9% and 5.9% for total perfluorinated carboxylic acids and perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), respectively. A peak concentration for PFOS was observed in 1989, which may be related to the import history of PFCs in China. The present study is the first report of systematic temporal trends of PHCs in biota samples from China and shows that regulatory policy is needed to reduce their potential health and ecological risk in China considering the increasing temporal trends of PBDEs and PFCs.

  20. Trends and temporal variations of major greenhouse gases at a rural site in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haszpra, L.; Barcza, Z.; Hidy, D.; Szilágyi, I.; Dlugokencky, E.; Tans, P.

    In this study the trends and temporal variations of four major greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2O, SF 6) measured at Hegyhátsál, Hungary, are analyzed. The long term trends observed closely follow the global tendencies. The relatively small positive offset can be attributed to the European anthropogenic sources. The seasonal cycles are basically governed by that in the atmospheric mixing, however, in the case of CO 2 and N 2O it is also modulated by the temporal variation in the biological activity. A secondary maximum in SF 6 mixing ratio in summer may indicate the additional contribution of the seasonally changing circulation pattern. The daily cycles are dominated by the diurnal variation in the vertical mixing of the atmosphere. However, in the case of CO 2 the diurnal cycle in the biospheric uptake/release is the governing process, especially in the growing season. The lack of diurnal cycle in the mixing ratio of the exclusively anthropogenic SF 6 indicates that there is no notable anthropogenic activity in the influence area of the station, which also means that Hegyhátsál can be considered to be a rural monitoring site as free from direct anthropogenic pollution as it is possible in Central Europe. It is demonstrated that the diurnal covariance between the mixing ratios and the vertical mixing at a mid-continental, low elevation site has to be taken into account, and properly handled, in the dispersion models, otherwise the results may be distorted. The collocated measurement of greenhouse gases of different origin could potentially help modelers to improve the boundary layer representation and horizontal diffusion simulation in the three dimensional atmospheric transport models.

  1. Reconstructing temporal trends in heavy metal deposition: Assessing the value of herbarium moss samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shotbolt, L. [Geography Department, Queen Mary, University of London, London, E1 4NS (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: l.shotbolt@qmul.ac.uk; Bueker, P. [Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Heslington, YO10 5DD (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: pb25@york.ac.uk; Ashmore, M.R. [Environment Department, University of York, Heslington, YO10 5DD (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: ma512@york.ac.uk

    2007-05-15

    The use of the herbarium moss archive for investigating past atmospheric deposition of Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb was evaluated. Moss samples from five UK regions collected over 150 years were analysed for 26 elements using ICP-MS. Principal components analysis identified soil as a significant source of Ni and As and atmospheric deposition as the main source of Pb and Cu. Sources of Zn and Cd concentrations were identified to be at least partly atmospheric, but require further investigation. Temporal and spatial trends in metal concentrations in herbarium mosses showed that the highest Pb and Cu levels are found in Northern England in the late 19th century. Metal concentrations in herbarium moss samples were consistently higher than those in mosses collected from the field in 2000. Herbarium moss samples are concluded to be a useful resource to contribute to reconstructing trends in Pb and Cu deposition, but not, without further analysis, for Cd, Zn, As and Ni. - Herbarium moss samples can contribute to the reconstruction of past heavy metal deposition.

  2. Reconstructing temporal trends in heavy metal deposition: Assessing the value of herbarium moss samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shotbolt, L.; Bueker, P.; Ashmore, M.R.

    2007-01-01

    The use of the herbarium moss archive for investigating past atmospheric deposition of Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb was evaluated. Moss samples from five UK regions collected over 150 years were analysed for 26 elements using ICP-MS. Principal components analysis identified soil as a significant source of Ni and As and atmospheric deposition as the main source of Pb and Cu. Sources of Zn and Cd concentrations were identified to be at least partly atmospheric, but require further investigation. Temporal and spatial trends in metal concentrations in herbarium mosses showed that the highest Pb and Cu levels are found in Northern England in the late 19th century. Metal concentrations in herbarium moss samples were consistently higher than those in mosses collected from the field in 2000. Herbarium moss samples are concluded to be a useful resource to contribute to reconstructing trends in Pb and Cu deposition, but not, without further analysis, for Cd, Zn, As and Ni. - Herbarium moss samples can contribute to the reconstruction of past heavy metal deposition

  3. The Dynamic contribution of chronic conditions to temporal trends in disability among U.S. adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shih-Fan; Beck, Audrey N; Finch, Brian K

    2016-04-01

    Although evidence has shown that U.S. late-life disability has been declining, studies have also suggested that there has been an increase in chronic diseases between 1984 and 2007. To further illuminate these potentially contradictory trends, we explicate how the contribution of chronic conditions changes across four common types of disability (ADL, IADL, mobility disability, and functional limitations) by age (A), period (P), and birth cohorts (C) among adults aged 20 and above. Our data came from seven cross-sectional waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We utilize a cross-classified random effect model (CCREM) to simultaneously estimate age, period, and cohort trends for each disability. Each chronic condition was sequentially then simultaneously added to our base models (sociodemographics only). Reductions in predicted probability from the base model were then calculated for each chronic condition by each temporal dimension (A/P/C) to assess the contribution of each chronic condition. There was increasing age-based contribution of chronic conditions to all disabilities. The period-based contribution remained quite stagnant across years while cohort-based contributions showed a continual decline for recent cohorts. Arthritis showed the greatest contribution to disability of all types which was followed by obesity. Cancer was the least important contributor to disabilities. Although chronic conditions are becoming less disabling across recent cohorts, other competing risk factors might suggest prevailing causes of disability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Spatio-temporal trends of nitrogen deposition and climate effects on Sphagnum productivity in European peatlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granath, Gustaf; Limpens, Juul; Posch, Maximilian; Mücher, Sander; Vries, Wim de

    2014-01-01

    To quantify potential nitrogen (N) deposition impacts on peatland carbon (C) uptake, we explored temporal and spatial trends in N deposition and climate impacts on the production of the key peat forming functional group (Sphagnum mosses) across European peatlands for the period 1900–2050. Using a modelling approach we estimated that between 1900 and 1950 N deposition impacts remained limited irrespective of geographical position. Between 1950 and 2000 N deposition depressed production between 0 and 25% relative to 1900, particularly in temperate regions. Future scenarios indicate this trend will continue and become more pronounced with climate warming. At the European scale, the consequences for Sphagnum net C-uptake remained small relative to 1900 due to the low peatland cover in high-N areas. The predicted impacts of likely changes in N deposition on Sphagnum productivity appeared to be less than those of climate. Nevertheless, current critical loads for peatlands are likely to hold under a future climate. - Highlights: • We model the effect of N deposition combined with climate on production of Sphagnum between 1900 and 2050. • Spatially explicit projections are indicated on an updated European peatland distribution map. • Results stress the vulnerability of temperate Sphagnum peatlands to current and future N deposition. • Future impacts of N deposition on Sphagnum productivity likely depend more on climate change than on N deposition rate. - Temperate Sphagnum peatlands are vulnerable to current and future N deposition and current critical loads for peatlands are likely to hold under a future climate

  5. Spatio-temporal trends of nitrogen deposition and climate effects on Sphagnum productivity in European peatlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granath, Gustaf; Limpens, Juul; Posch, Maximilian; Mücher, Sander; de Vries, Wim

    2014-04-01

    To quantify potential nitrogen (N) deposition impacts on peatland carbon (C) uptake, we explored temporal and spatial trends in N deposition and climate impacts on the production of the key peat forming functional group (Sphagnum mosses) across European peatlands for the period 1900-2050. Using a modelling approach we estimated that between 1900 and 1950 N deposition impacts remained limited irrespective of geographical position. Between 1950 and 2000 N deposition depressed production between 0 and 25% relative to 1900, particularly in temperate regions. Future scenarios indicate this trend will continue and become more pronounced with climate warming. At the European scale, the consequences for Sphagnum net C-uptake remained small relative to 1900 due to the low peatland cover in high-N areas. The predicted impacts of likely changes in N deposition on Sphagnum productivity appeared to be less than those of climate. Nevertheless, current critical loads for peatlands are likely to hold under a future climate. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

    2018-03-01

    Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

  7. Temporal trends 1987-2002 of regulated POPs in beluga whales from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebeuf, M; Noel, M; Trottier, S.; Measures, L. [Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    Beluga populations in the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) are now threatened. The decline of the beluga population has been attributed to the presence of high concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This study assessed the temporal trends of POPs in beluga, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDT, chlordanes, halogenated cyclic hydrocarbon (HCH) isomers, halogenated cyclic hydrocarbons (HCB), and mirex in SLE populations between 1987 and 2002. Blubber concentrations of individual POP or POP groups in both male and female belugas were fitted to simple natural algorithms using linear regression analyses. Only animals older than 10 years were examined. POPs, PCBs, and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were determined in blubber samples. Temporal trends of biological parameters such as age, lipid content, and length of the animals were assessed separately for both female and male belugas. POP concentrations were expressed on a lipid weight basis for the statistical analyses. Temporal trends of biological parameters, individual POP or POP group concentrations in both females and males were assessed using simple in-linear regression analysis from which half-life time was calculated for each statistically significant time trend. Results showed that approximately half of the POPs showed significant decreasing levels in female beluga between 1987 and 2002 and in males between 1988 and 2002. Temporal trends of PCBs, DDTs, and HCH were significant in both males and females, while chlordanes, and mirex levels were not significant in either sex. HCB exhibited a significant time trend in males. Time trends were in agreement with expected declines for regulated POPs. It was concluded that bioaccumulative POPs must be rapidly regulated before they reach high levels, as POP compounds are very slowly eliminated by belugas. 9 refs., 1 tab.

  8. Volcanic Ash Advisory Database, 1983-2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aviation and can also affect global climate patterns. To ensure safe navigation and monitor possible climatic impact, the...

  9. Temporal Trends in Enterobacter Species Bloodstream Infection: A Population-Based Study, 1998-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hasan, Majdi N.; Lahr, Brian D.; Eckel-Passow, Jeanette E.; Baddour, Larry M.

    2010-01-01

    Enterobacter species are the fourth most common cause of gram-negative bloodstream infection (BSI). We examined temporal changes and seasonal variation in the incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI, estimated 28-day and 1-year mortality, and determined in vitro antimicrobial resistance rates of Enterobacter spp. bloodstream isolates in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1/1/1998 to 12/31/2007. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to examine temporal changes and seasonal variation in incidence rate and Kaplan-Meier method to estimate 28-day and 1-year mortality. The median age of patients with Enterobacter spp. BSI was 58 years and 53% were female. The overall age- and gender-adjusted incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI was 3.3/100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3-4.4). There was a linear trend of increasing incidence rate from 0.8 (95% CI: 0-1.9) to 6.2 (95% CI: 3.0-9.3) per 100,000 person-years between 1998 and 2007 (p=0.002). There was no significant difference in the incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI during the warmest four months compared to the remainder of the year (incidence rate ratio 1.06 [95% CI: 0.47-2.01]). The overall 28-day and 1-year mortality rates of Enterobacter spp. BSI were 21% (95% CI: 8-34%) and 38% (95% CI: 22-53%), respectively. Up to 13% of Enterobacter spp. bloodstream isolates were resistant to third-generation cephalosporins. To our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to describe the epidemiology and outcome of Enterobacter spp. BSI. The increase in incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI over the past decade, coupled with its associated antimicrobial resistance, dictate more investigation of this syndrome. PMID:20518795

  10. TEMPORAL TRENDS IN THE DETECTION RATES OF HEPATITIS B IN THE SANTA CATARINA STATE, BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaiana Esmeraldino Mendes Marcon

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Hepatitis B is a serious public health problem. The state of Santa Catarina presents areas of high endemicity. The aim of this study was to describe temporal trends in detection rates of hepatitis B in the period from 2002 to 2009 in Santa Catarina and in its regions. A time series study was carried out. Crude rates were calculated and standardized by age using the direct method. Annual variation percentages were estimated by Joinpoint regression. There were two distinct and significant trends in Santa Catarina. From 2002 to 2006 a significant increase of 5.9% per year was observed. From 2006, there was a significant decrease of 6.4% per year. In this same period the southern and far-western regions had significant increases of 15.9% and 4.6% and significant decreases of 7.5% and 4.8%, respectively. Greater Florianópolis and Northeast also showed significant increases until 2006, of 15.4% and 17.4%, respectively. In the following period, non-significant decreases of 5.8% and 9.8% respectively were observed. Foz do Rio Itajaí and Planalto Serrano showed non-significant increases up to half of the studied period of 21.1% and 12.0%, respectively and after, significant decreases of 21.5% and 18.0%, respectively. Vale do Itajaí showed a significant decrease of 9.7%; Planalto Norte showed a non-significant decrease of 0.6% and Midwest a non-significant increase of 2.7% per year, in the period from 2002 to 2009.

  11. Temporal Trends in Mortality from Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in Mexico, 1980-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Copytzy; Campuzano-Rincón, Julio César; Calleja-Castillo, Juan Manuel; Hernández-Álvarez, Anaid; Parra, María Del Socorro; Moreno-Macias, Hortensia; Hernández-Girón, Carlos

    2017-04-01

    Over the past decades, the decline in mortality from stroke has been more pronounced in high-income countries than in low- and middle-income countries. We evaluated changes in temporal stroke mortality trends in Mexico according to sex and type of stroke. We assessed stroke mortality from Mexico's National Health Information System for the period from 1980 to 2012. We analyzed age-adjusted mortality rates by sex, type of stroke, and age group. The annual percentage change and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the slopes of the age-adjusted mortality trends were determined using joinpoint regression models. The age-adjusted mortality rates due to stroke decreased between 1980 and 2012, from 44.55 to 33.47 per 100,000 inhabitants, and the AAPC (95% confidence interval [CI]) was -.9 (-1.0 to -.7). The AAPC for females was -1.1 (-1.5 to -.7) and that for males was -.7 (-.9 to -.6). People older than 65 years showed the highest mortality throughout the period. Between 1980 and 2012, the AAPC (95% CI) for ischemic stroke was -3.8 (-4.8 to -2.8) and was -.5 (-.8 to -.2) for hemorrhagic stroke. For the same period, the AAPC for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) was -.7 (-1.6 to .2) and that for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) was 1.6 (.4-2.8). The age-adjusted mortality rates of all strokes combined, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and ICH, decreased between 1980 and 2012 in Mexico. However, the increase in SAH mortality makes it necessary to explore the risk factors and clinical management of this type of stroke. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. High-Latitude Wintertime Urban Pollution: Particulate Matter Composition and Temporal Trends in Fairbanks, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, W. R.; Nattinger, K.; Hooper, M.

    2017-12-01

    High latitude cities often experience severe pollution episodes during wintertime exacerbated by thermal inversion trapping of pollutant emissions. Fairbanks, Alaska is an extreme example of this problem, currently being classified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as a "serious" non-attainment area for fine particulate matter (PM2.5). For this reason, we have studied the chemical composition of PM2.5 at multiple EPA monitoring sites in the non-attainment area from 2006 to the present. The chemical composition is dominated by organic carbon with lesser amounts of black carbon and inorganic ionic species such as ammonium, sulfate, and nitrate. We find large spatial differences in composition and amount of PM2.5 that indicate a different mix of sources in residential areas as compared to the city center. Specifically, the difference in composition is consistent with increased wood smoke source in the residential areas. The extent to which organic matter could be secondary (formed through conversion of emitted gases) is also an area needing study. Ammonium sulfate is responsible for about a fifth to a quarter of the particles mass during the darkest months, possibly indicating a non-photochemical source of sulfate, but the chemical mechanism for this possible transformation is unclear. Therefore, we quantified the relationship between particulate sulfate concentrations and gas-phase sulfur dioxide concentrations along with particulate metals and inferred particulate acidity with the hopes that these data can assist in elucidation of the mechanism of particulate sulfate formation. We also analyze temporal trends in PM2.5 composition in an attempt to understand how the problem is changing over time and find most trends are small despite regulatory changes. Improving mechanistic understanding of particulate formation under cold and dark conditions could assist in reducing air-quality-related health effects.

  13. [Physical activity in staff workers at Centers for Psychosocial Care in southern Brazil: temporal trends].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerônimo, Jeferson Santos; Jardim, Vanda Maria da Rosa; Kantorski, Luciane Prado; Domingues, Marlos Rodrigues

    2014-12-01

    The aim of the study was to analyze temporal trends of physical activity among staff workers in Centers for Psychosocial Care and associated factors in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2011. This cross-sectional study was part of the Evaluation of Centers for Psychosocial Care in Southern Brazil/CAPSUL. Physical and mental health variables were collected using the Self-Report Questionnaire (SRQ-20), and physical activity was measured with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Participation included 435 staff workers in 2006 and 546 in 2011. Total prevalence rates were: physical activity (≥ 150 minutes/week) 23.2% in 2006 and 17.6% in 2011 and minor psychiatric disorders 11% and 8.4%. There was no statistically significant difference in physical activity between men and women. In 2006, individuals with less schooling (p = 0.03) and lower income (p = 0.01) showed higher levels of physical activity. In 2011, staff workers in larger cities showed higher levels of physical activity (p = 0.02). Interventions are needed to promote physical activity in this population, especially among staff workers at Centers for Psychosocial Care in smaller municipalities.

  14. Temporal trends and future predictions of mercury concentrations in Northwest Greenland polar bear (Ursus maritimus) hair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, R; Born, E W; Rigét, F; Aubail, A; Sonne, C; Drimmie, R; Basu, N

    2011-02-15

    Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafter Hg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p polar bear Hg exposure is 95.6-96.2% anthropogenic in its origin. Assuming a continued anthropogenic increase, this model estimated concentrations in 2050 and 2100 will be 40- and 92-fold the baseline concentration, respectively, which is equivalent to a 97.5 and 98.9% man-made contribution. None of the 2001-2008 concentrations of Hg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call for detailed effect studies in main target organs such as brain, liver, kidney, and sexual organs in the Northwest Greenland polar bears.

  15. Complications Following Common Inpatient Urological Procedures: Temporal Trend Analysis from 2000 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Christian P; Hollis, Michael; Cole, Alexander P; Hanske, Julian; O'Leary, James; Gupta, Soham; Löppenberg, Björn; Zavaski, Mike E; Sun, Maxine; Sammon, Jesse D; Kibel, Adam S; Fisch, Margit; Chun, Felix K H; Trinh, Quoc-Dien

    2016-04-01

    Measuring procedure-specific complication-rate trends allows for benchmarking and improvement in quality of care but must be done in a standardized fashion. Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified all instances of eight common inpatient urologic procedures performed in the United States between 2000 and 2010. This yielded 327218 cases including both oncologic and benign diseases. Complications were identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Each complication was cross-referenced to the procedure code and graded according to the standardized Clavien system. The Mann-Whitney and chi-square were used to assess the statistical significance of medians and proportions, respectively. We assessed temporal variability in the rates of overall complications (Clavien grade 1-4), length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality using the estimated annual percent change (EAPC) linear regression methodology. We observed an overall reduction in length of stay (EAPC: -1.59; ptrends showed a significant increase in complications for inpatient ureterorenoscopy (EAPC: 5.53; ptrends of urologic procedures and their complications. A significant shift toward sicker patients and more complex procedures in the inpatient setting was found, but this did not result in higher mortality. These results are indicators of the high quality of care for urologic procedures in the inpatient setting. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Epidemiology of inpatient gout in Australia and New Zealand: temporal trends, comorbidities and gout flare site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Philip C; Kempe, Sarina; Tebbutt, Ian; Roberts, Lynden

    2017-06-01

    To assess the epidemiology of inpatient gout in Australia and New Zealand during the years 2009-2014. Using the Health Roundtable Limited (HRT) dataset, all patients with a coded ICD10 primary or secondary discharge diagnosis of gout from a HRT participating Australian or New Zealand hospital between the years 2009 and 2014 were identified. The number of inpatient gout admissions, length of stay, body site of gout flare, temporal trends and comorbidities were assessed. During 2009-2014, the number of gout admissions increased significantly in Australia and New Zealand. The rate of inpatient gout admissions relative to the population and total HRT admissions rose in Australia and stayed static in New Zealand. Lower limb presentations were the commonest anatomical site of gout in admitted patients. Length of stay over the course of the study decreased both in patients admitted for gout and in those in the entire HRT dataset. Patients admitted for gout have longer length of stay compared to patients admitted for other reasons. Cardiovascular disease, infection and stroke were the commonest conditions that were complicated by an episode of inpatient gout. There was no influence of month or season on the pattern of gout admissions. The number of gout admissions rose in Australia numerically and as a proportion of the total population and total admissions. Gout is an increasing problem affecting individuals and the community as a whole in Australia. © 2016 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  17. Spatial and Temporal Trends in Global Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides from 1960 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Tianbo; Zhu, Xi; Zhong, Qirui; Yun, Xiao; Meng, Wenjun; Li, Bengang; Ma, Jianmin; Zeng, Eddy Y; Tao, Shu

    2017-07-18

    The quantification of nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions is critical for air quality modeling. Based on updated fuel consumption and emission factor databases, a global emission inventory was compiled with high spatial (0.1° × 0.1°), temporal (monthly), and source (87 sources) resolutions for the period 1960 to 2014. The monthly emission data have been uploaded online ( http://inventory.pku.edu.cn ), along with a number of other air pollutant and greenhouse gas data for free download. Differences in source profiles, not global total quantities, between our results and those reported previously were found. There were significant differences in total and per capita emissions and emission intensities among countries, especially between the developing and developed countries. Globally, the total annual NO x emissions finally stopped increasing in 2013 after continuously increasing over several decades, largely due to strict control measures taken in China in recent years. Nevertheless, the peak year of NO x emissions was later than for many other major air pollutants. Per capita emissions, either among countries or over years, follow typical inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curves, indicating that the emissions increased during the early stage of development and were restrained when socioeconomic development reached certain points. Although the trends are similar among countries, the turning points of developing countries appeared sooner than those of developed countries in terms of development status, confirming late-move advantages.

  18. Modelling spatial patterns and temporal trends of wildfires in Galicia (NW Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Barreal

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: The goal of this paper is to analyse the importance of the main contributing factors to the occurrence of wildfires. Area of study: We employ data from the region of Galicia during 2001-2010; although the similarities shared between this area and other rural areas may allow extrapolation of the present results. Material and Methods: The spatial dependence is analysed by using the Moran’s I and LISA statistics. We also conduct an econometric analysis modelling both, the number of fires and the relative size of afflicted woodland area as dependent variables, which depend on the climatic, land cover variables, and socio-economic characteristics of the affected areas. Fixed effects and random effect models are estimated in order to control for the heterogeneity between the Forest Districts in Galicia. Main results: Moran’s I and LISA statistics show that there is spatial dependence in the occurrence of Galician wildfires. Econometrics models show that climatology, socioeconomic variables, and temporal trends are also important to study both, the number of wildfires and the burned-forest ratio. Research highlights: We conclude that in addition to direct forest actions, other agricultural or social public plans, can help to reduce wildfires in rural areas or wildland-urban areas. Based on these conclusions, a number of guidelines are provided that may foster the development of better forest management policies in order to reduce the occurrence of wildfires.

  19. Temporal trends in management and outcomes of testicular cancer: A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leveridge, Michael J; Siemens, D Robert; Brennan, Kelly; Izard, Jason P; Karim, Safiya; An, Howard; Mackillop, William J; Booth, Christopher M

    2018-04-16

    Treatment guidelines for early-stage testicular cancer have increasingly recommended de-escalation of therapy with surveillance strategies. This study was designed to describe temporal trends in routine clinical practice and to determine whether de-escalation of therapy is associated with inferior survival in the general population. The Ontario Cancer Registry was linked to electronic records of treatment to identify all patients diagnosed with testicular cancer treated with orchiectomy in Ontario during 2000-2010. Treatment after orchiectomy was classified as radiotherapy (RT), retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (RPLND), chemotherapy, or none. Surveillance was defined as no identified treatment within 90 days of orchiectomy. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were measured from the date of orchiectomy. The study population included 1564 and 1086 cases of seminomas and nonseminoma germ cell tumors (NSGCTs), respectively. Among patients with seminomas, there was a significant increase in the proportion of patients with no treatment within 90 days of orchiectomy (from 56% to 84%; P testicular cancer in routine practice since 2000. Long-term survival in routine practice is excellent and has not decreased with the uptake of surveillance strategies. Cancer 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

  20. Temporal trends in respiratory mortality and short-term effects of air pollutants in Shenyang, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Xiaoxia; Chen, Jianping; Sun, Baijun; Zhou, Baosen; Li, Xuelian

    2018-04-01

    Short-term exposures to air pollution are associated with acute effects on respiratory health. This study aimed to describe 10-year temporal trends in respiratory mortality in the urban areas of Shenyang, China, according to gender and age and estimate the effects of air pollution on respiratory diseases (ICD-10J00-J99) and lung cancer (ICD-10 C33-C34) using a case-crossover design. During the study period 2013-2015, the exposure-response relationship between ambient air pollutants and mortality data was fitted by a quasi-Poisson model. Age-standardized mortality rates for a combined number of respiratory diseases and for lung cancer declined in Shenyang; however, death counts increased with aging. Deaths from respiratory diseases increased by 4.7% (95% CI, 0.00-9.9), and lung cancer mortality increased by 6.5% (95% CI, 1.2-12.0), both associated with a 10 μg/m 3 increase in exposure to particulate matter pollutants. These results provided an updated estimate of the short-term effects of air pollution in Shenyang. Since population aging is also associated with increasing mortality from respiratory diseases and lung cancer, reinforcing air quality control measures and health-promoting behaviors is urgent and necessary in Shenyang.

  1. Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

    2015-04-01

    We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

  2. Spatial and temporal trends of contaminants in terrestrial biota from the Canadian Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gamberg, Mary [Gamberg Consulting, Box 10460, Whitehorse, YT, Y1A 7A1 (Canada)]. E-mail: mary.gamberg@northwestel.net; Braune, Birgit [Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Carleton University, Raven Road, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0H3 (Canada); Davey, Eric [Athabasca Tribal Council, Environmental Affairs, 9206 McCormick Drive, Fort McMurray, AB, T9H 1C7 (Canada); Elkin, Brett [Northwest Territories Department of Resources, Wildlife and Economic Development, Yellowknife, NT X1A 3S8 (Canada); Hoekstra, Paul F. [Department of Environmental Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, N1G 2W1 (Canada); Kennedy, David [Northwest Territories Department of Resources, Wildlife and Economic Development, Yellowknife, NT X1A 3S8 (Canada); Macdonald, Colin [Northern Environmental Consulting, Pinawa, MB, R0E 1L0 (Canada); Muir, Derek [National Water Research Institute, Environment Canada, Burlington, ON, L7R 4A6 (Canada); Nirwal, Amar [Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Royal Military College of Canada, Box 17000, Stn Forces, Kingston, ON, K7K 7B4 (Canada); Wayland, Mark [Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada, Prairie and Northern Region, 115 Perimeter Road, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 0X4 (Canada); Zeeb, Barbara [Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Royal Military College of Canada, Box 17000, Stn Forces, Kingston, ON, K7K 7B4 (Canada)

    2005-12-01

    wildlife. Two new classes of persistent fluorinated contaminants, perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) were found in arctic carnivores and were most abundant in arctic fox and least abundant in mink. Although trace element concentrations in king and common eider ducks were low and not of toxicological concern, the number of nematode parasites in common eiders was positively correlated with total and organic mercury concentrations. Future research should focus on cadmium in moose and caribou, mercury in caribou, and emerging contaminants, with an effort to sample moose and caribou annually where possible to explore the role of naturally occurring cycles in apparent temporal trends.

  3. Quantifying spatial and temporal trends in beach-dune volumetric changes using spatial statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eamer, Jordan B. R.; Walker, Ian J.

    2013-06-01

    Spatial statistics are generally underutilized in coastal geomorphology, despite offering great potential for identifying and quantifying spatial-temporal trends in landscape morphodynamics. In particular, local Moran's Ii provides a statistical framework for detecting clusters of significant change in an attribute (e.g., surface erosion or deposition) and quantifying how this changes over space and time. This study analyzes and interprets spatial-temporal patterns in sediment volume changes in a beach-foredune-transgressive dune complex following removal of invasive marram grass (Ammophila spp.). Results are derived by detecting significant changes in post-removal repeat DEMs derived from topographic surveys and airborne LiDAR. The study site was separated into discrete, linked geomorphic units (beach, foredune, transgressive dune complex) to facilitate sub-landscape scale analysis of volumetric change and sediment budget responses. Difference surfaces derived from a pixel-subtraction algorithm between interval DEMs and the LiDAR baseline DEM were filtered using the local Moran's Ii method and two different spatial weights (1.5 and 5 m) to detect statistically significant change. Moran's Ii results were compared with those derived from a more spatially uniform statistical method that uses a simpler student's t distribution threshold for change detection. Morphodynamic patterns and volumetric estimates were similar between the uniform geostatistical method and Moran's Ii at a spatial weight of 5 m while the smaller spatial weight (1.5 m) consistently indicated volumetric changes of less magnitude. The larger 5 m spatial weight was most representative of broader site morphodynamics and spatial patterns while the smaller spatial weight provided volumetric changes consistent with field observations. All methods showed foredune deflation immediately following removal with increased sediment volumes into the spring via deposition at the crest and on lobes in the lee

  4. Temporal trends in age and size at maturation of four North Sea gadid populations: cod, haddock, whiting, and Norway pout

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marty, Lise; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Ernande, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    , phenotypic plasticity, and evolution to these trends were assessed. First, maturation trends were extricated from demographic effects and growth-dependent plasticity by estimating probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs). PMRN midpoints have significantly shifted downwards at most ages for cod......, haddock, and whiting, but not for Norway pout. Second, increased temperature and food abundance, loosened trophic competition, and relaxed social pressure may also trigger growth-independent plasticity in maturation. Principal component regression of PMRN midpoints on annual estimates of relevant...... environmental variables exhibiting a temporal trend suggest that, despite some evidence of environmental effects, PMRN trends were mostly independent of growth-independent plasticity in haddock, whiting, and male cod, but not in female cod. According to these findings, evolution of maturation, potentially...

  5. Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme

  6. Temporal trend and sources of speciated atmospheric mercury at Waliguan GAW station, northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, X. W.; Feng, X.; Liang, P.; Deli-Geer; Zhang, H.; Ji, J.; Liu, P.

    2011-11-01

    Measurements of speciated atmospheric mercury were conducted at a remote mountain-top station (WLG) at the edge of northeastern part of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, western China. Mean concentrations of total gaseous mercury (TGM), particulate mercury (PHg), and reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) during the whole sampling campaign were 1.98 ± 0.98 ng m-3, 19.4 ± 18.1 pg m-3, and 7.4 ± 4.8 pg m-3, respectively. Levels of speciated Hg at WLG were slightly higher than those reported from remote areas of North America and Europe. Both regional emissions and long-rang transport played a remarkable role in the distribution of TGM and PHg in ambient air at WLG, whereas RGM showed major links to the regional sources, likely as well as the in-situ productions by photochemical processes. Regional sources for speciated Hg were mostly located to the east of WLG, which is the most developed areas of Qinghai province and accounted for most of the province's anthropogenic Hg emissions. Potential source contribution function (PSCF) results showed a strong impact of long-range transport from eastern Gansu, western Ningxia and Shanxi Province, with good accordance with locations of urban areas and industrial centers. Moreover, we found that northern India was also an important source region of WLG during the sampling campaign, and this is the first time of direct evidence of long-range transport of atmospheric Hg from India to northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Seasonal and diurnal variations of TGM were in contrast with most of the previous studies in China, with relatively higher levels in warm seasons and night, respectively. The temporal trend of TGM also highlighted the impact of long-range transport on the distribution of TGM in ambient air at WLG.

  7. Temporal Trends in the Use of Parenteral Nutrition in Critically Ill Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Jeremy M.; Wunsch, Hannah

    2014-01-01

    Background: Clinical practice guidelines recommend enteral over parenteral nutrition in critical illness and do not recommend early initiation. Few data are available on parenteral nutrition use or timing of initiation in the ICU or how this use may have changed over time. Methods: We used the Project IMPACT database to evaluate temporal trends in parenteral nutrition use (total and partial parenteral nutrition and lipid supplementation) and timing of initiation in adult ICU admissions from 2001 to 2008. We used χ2 tests and analysis of variance to examine characteristics of patients receiving parenteral nutrition and multilevel multivariate logistic regression models to assess parenteral nutrition use over time, in all patients and in specific subgroups. Results: Of 337,442 patients, 20,913 (6.2%) received parenteral nutrition. Adjusting for patient characteristics, the use of parenteral nutrition decreased modestly over time (adjusted probability, 7.2% in 2001-2002 vs 5.5% in 2007-2008, P nutrition use increased simultaneously (adjusted probability, 11.5% in 2001-2002 vs 15.3% in 2007-2008, P parenteral nutrition declined most rapidly in emergent surgical patients, patients with moderate illness severity, patients in the surgical ICU, and patients admitted to an academic facility (P ≤ .01 for all interactions with year). When used, parenteral nutrition was initiated a median of 2 days (interquartile range, 1-3), after ICU admission and > 90% of patients had parenteral nutrition initiated within 7 days; timing of initiation of parenteral nutrition did not change from 2001 to 2008. Conclusions: Use of parenteral nutrition in US ICUs declined from 2001 through 2008 in all patients and in all examined subgroups, with the majority of parenteral nutrition initiated within the first 7 days in ICU; enteral nutrition use coincidently increased over the same time period. PMID:24233390

  8. Temporal trend of anemia among reproductive-aged women in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharati, Susmita; Pal, Manoranjan; Som, Suparna; Bharati, Premananda

    2015-03-01

    Anemia is one of the major leading nutritional deficiencies in India, and the most vulnerable groups are preschool and adolescent children and pregnant and lactating women. The main objective of the study is to determine the temporal trend of anemia among reproductive-aged women of age 15-49 years. The study uses data from second and third rounds of the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-2, 1998-1999, and NFHS-3, 2005-2006), conducted by the International Institute for Population Sciences. The dependent variable was the status of anemia of women. The determining variables were type of residence, age group, religion and castes, educational status, marital status, and household standard of living index. Anemia was most prevalent in the east zone for both the periods. The changes at the all India level were not much, but the north-east zone improved very well, whereas the south zone deteriorated drastically. The occurrence of severely anemic women in India varied between 1% and 2%. The highest prevalence rates were observed among women who were 15 to 24 years of age, illiterate, from non-Christian scheduled tribes (STs), unmarried, and whose standard of living was low. Rates of anemia have increased over time except in the case of Buddhists, Parsees, Jains, and the STs. From the viewpoint of our study, illiteracy and low standard of living may be the main causes of anemia among women in India. It is also necessary to take appropriate steps to curb anemia in women in their early adulthood. © 2012 APJPH.

  9. Determinants and Temporal Trends of Perfluoroalkyl Substances in Pregnant Women: The Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children’s Health

    OpenAIRE

    Meng-Shan Tsai; Chihiro Miyashita; Atsuko Araki; Sachiko Itoh; Yu Ait Bamai; Houman Goudarzi; Emiko Okada; Ikuko Kashino; Hideyuki Matsuura; Reiko Kishi

    2018-01-01

    Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent bio-accumulative chemicals that impact the health of pregnant women and their children. PFAS derive from environmental and consumer products, which depend on human lifestyle, socioeconomic characteristics, and time variation. Here, we aimed to explore the temporal trends of PFAS in pregnant women and the characteristics related to maternal PFAS concentration. Our study is part of the Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children’s Health, the Hokka...

  10. Spatio-Temporal Trends and Identification of Correlated Variables with Water Quality for Drinking-Water Reservoirs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Qing; Wang, Ke; Li, Jiadan; Ma, Ligang; Deng, Jinsong; Zheng, Kefeng; Zhang, Xiaobin; Sheng, Li

    2015-10-20

    It is widely accepted that characterizing the spatio-temporal trends of water quality parameters and identifying correlated variables with water quality are indispensable for the management and protection of water resources. In this study, cluster analysis was used to classify 56 typical drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province into three groups representing different water quality levels, using data of four water quality parameters for the period 2006-2010. Then, the spatio-temporal trends in water quality were analyzed, assisted by geographic information systems (GIS) technology and statistical analysis. The results indicated that the water quality showed a trend of degradation from southwest to northeast, and the overall water quality level was exacerbated during the study period. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between water quality parameters and ten independent variables grouped into four categories (land use, socio-economic factors, geographical features, and reservoir attributes). According to the correlation coefficients, land use and socio-economic indicators were identified as the most significant factors related to reservoir water quality. The results offer insights into the spatio-temporal variations of water quality parameters and factors impacting the water quality of drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province, and they could assist managers in making effective strategies to better protect water resources.

  11. Spatio-Temporal Trends and Identification of Correlated Variables with Water Quality for Drinking-Water Reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Gu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available It is widely accepted that characterizing the spatio-temporal trends of water quality parameters and identifying correlated variables with water quality are indispensable for the management and protection of water resources. In this study, cluster analysis was used to classify 56 typical drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province into three groups representing different water quality levels, using data of four water quality parameters for the period 2006–2010. Then, the spatio-temporal trends in water quality were analyzed, assisted by geographic information systems (GIS technology and statistical analysis. The results indicated that the water quality showed a trend of degradation from southwest to northeast, and the overall water quality level was exacerbated during the study period. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between water quality parameters and ten independent variables grouped into four categories (land use, socio-economic factors, geographical features, and reservoir attributes. According to the correlation coefficients, land use and socio-economic indicators were identified as the most significant factors related to reservoir water quality. The results offer insights into the spatio-temporal variations of water quality parameters and factors impacting the water quality of drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province, and they could assist managers in making effective strategies to better protect water resources.

  12. Tweet for health: using an online social network to examine temporal trends in weight loss-related posts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner-McGrievy, Gabrielle M; Beets, Michael W

    2015-06-01

    Few studies have used social networking sites to track temporal trends in health-related posts, particularly around weight loss. To examine the temporal relationship of Twitter messages about weight loss over 1 year (2012). Temporal trends in #weightloss mentions and #fitness, #diet, and #health tweets which also had the word "weight" in them were examined using three a priori time periods: (1) holidays: pre-winter holidays, holidays, and post-holidays; (2) Season: winter and summer; and (3) New Year's: pre-New Year's and post-New Year's. Regarding #weightloss, there were 145 (95 % CI 79, 211) more posts/day during holidays and 143 (95 % CI 76, 209) more posts/day after holidays as compared to 480 pre-holiday posts/day; 232 (95 % CI 178, 286) more posts/day during the winter versus summer (441 posts/day); there was no difference in posts around New Year's. Examining social networks for trends in health-related posts may aid in timing interventions when individuals are more likely to be discussing weight loss.

  13. Global Prevalence of Myopia and High Myopia and Temporal Trends from 2000 through 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Brien A; Fricke, Timothy R; Wilson, David A; Jong, Monica; Naidoo, Kovin S; Sankaridurg, Padmaja; Wong, Tien Y; Naduvilath, Thomas J; Resnikoff, Serge

    2016-05-01

    Myopia is a common cause of vision loss, with uncorrected myopia the leading cause of distance vision impairment globally. Individual studies show variations in the prevalence of myopia and high myopia between regions and ethnic groups, and there continues to be uncertainty regarding increasing prevalence of myopia. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of myopia and high myopia and estimated temporal trends from 2000 to 2050 using data published since 1995. The primary data were gathered into 5-year age groups from 0 to ≥100, in urban or rural populations in each country, standardized to definitions of myopia of -0.50 diopter (D) or less and of high myopia of -5.00 D or less, projected to the year 2010, then meta-analyzed within Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. Any urban or rural age group that lacked data in a GBD region took data from the most similar region. The prevalence data were combined with urbanization data and population data from United Nations Population Department (UNPD) to estimate the prevalence of myopia and high myopia in each country of the world. These estimates were combined with myopia change estimates over time derived from regression analysis of published evidence to project to each decade from 2000 through 2050. We included data from 145 studies covering 2.1 million participants. We estimated 1406 million people with myopia (22.9% of the world population; 95% confidence interval [CI], 932-1932 million [15.2%-31.5%]) and 163 million people with high myopia (2.7% of the world population; 95% CI, 86-387 million [1.4%-6.3%]) in 2000. We predict by 2050 there will be 4758 million people with myopia (49.8% of the world population; 3620-6056 million [95% CI, 43.4%-55.7%]) and 938 million people with high myopia (9.8% of the world population; 479-2104 million [95% CI, 5.7%-19.4%]). Myopia and high myopia estimates from 2000 to 2050 suggest significant increases in

  14. Temporal trends in the relative prevalence of dysphagia etiologies from 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidambi, Trilokesh; Toto, Erin; Ho, Nancy; Taft, Tiffany; Hirano, Ikuo

    2012-08-28

    To examine the relative prevalence and temporal variation of dysphagia etiologies in patients undergoing upper endoscopy (EGD) over the past decade. EGDs with the indication of dysphagia at an urban, university medical center in 1999, 2004 and 2009 were retrospectively identified from the electronic medical record. The entire patient chart, including EGD, pathology, manometry, radiographic and clinician reports, was reviewed for demographic and clinical data and to determine the etiology of dysphagia. The number of EGDs in which an esophageal biopsy was performed was also noted. Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) as a cause of dysphagia independent of peptic stricture was defined by symptoms with erosive esophagitis or symptom response to proton pump inhibition (PPI). Cases of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) were defined by an appropriate clinical history and histological criteria of ≥ 15 eosinophils per high powered field. PPI-responsive esophageal eosinophilia was not routinely reported prior to 2008. Statistical analysis was performed using one-way analysis of variance to analyze for trends between 1999, 2004 and 2009 and a post-hoc Tukey analysis was performed following a significant main effect. A total of 1371 cases (mean age 54 years, 43% male) met pre-specified inclusion criteria with 191, 504 and 675 cases in 1999, 2004 and 2009, respectively. Patients were older in 2004 compared to 2009 (mean ± SD, 54.0 ± 15.7 years vs 52.3 ± 16.8 years, P = 0.02) and there were more males in 1999 compared to 2004 (57.5% vs 40.8%, P = 0.005). Overall, GERD (27.6%) and EoE (7.7%) were the most common identifiable causes of dysphagia. An unspecified diagnosis accounted for 21% of overall cases. There were no significant differences in the relative prevalence of achalasia or other motility disorders, peptic stricture, Schatzki's ring, esophageal cancer or unspecified diagnoses over the 10-year time period. There was, however, a decrease in the relative prevalence of

  15. Temporal trends in the relative prevalence of dysphagia etiologies from 1999-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidambi, Trilokesh; Toto, Erin; Ho, Nancy; Taft, Tiffany; Hirano, Ikuo

    2012-01-01

    AIM: To examine the relative prevalence and temporal variation of dysphagia etiologies in patients undergoing upper endoscopy (EGD) over the past decade. METHODS: EGDs with the indication of dysphagia at an urban, university medical center in 1999, 2004 and 2009 were retrospectively identified from the electronic medical record. The entire patient chart, including EGD, pathology, manometry, radiographic and clinician reports, was reviewed for demographic and clinical data and to determine the etiology of dysphagia. The number of EGDs in which an esophageal biopsy was performed was also noted. Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) as a cause of dysphagia independent of peptic stricture was defined by symptoms with erosive esophagitis or symptom response to proton pump inhibition (PPI). Cases of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) were defined by an appropriate clinical history and histological criteria of ≥ 15 eosinophils per high powered field. PPI-responsive esophageal eosinophilia was not routinely reported prior to 2008. Statistical analysis was performed using one-way analysis of variance to analyze for trends between 1999, 2004 and 2009 and a post-hoc Tukey analysis was performed following a significant main effect. RESULTS: A total of 1371 cases (mean age 54 years, 43% male) met pre-specified inclusion criteria with 191, 504 and 675 cases in 1999, 2004 and 2009, respectively. Patients were older in 2004 compared to 2009 (mean ± SD, 54.0 ± 15.7 years vs 52.3 ± 16.8 years, P = 0.02) and there were more males in 1999 compared to 2004 (57.5% vs 40.8%, P = 0.005). Overall, GERD (27.6%) and EoE (7.7%) were the most common identifiable causes of dysphagia. An unspecified diagnosis accounted for 21% of overall cases. There were no significant differences in the relative prevalence of achalasia or other motility disorders, peptic stricture, Schatzki’s ring, esophageal cancer or unspecified diagnoses over the 10-year time period. There was, however, a decrease in

  16. Brominated flame retardants in the Arctic. An overview of spatial and temporal trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wit, C de [Institute of Applied Environmental Research, Stockholm (Sweden); Alaee, M; Muir, D [National Water Research Institute, Burlington, MA (United States)

    2004-09-15

    The Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), which entered into force on May 17, 2004, includes wording that chemicals with the characteristics of POPs are those found in locations ''distant from sources'' and those for which ''monitoring data showing that long-range environmental transport of the chemical may have occurred''. Thus, the Arctic has become an important indicator region for assessment of persistence and bioaccumulation. The Arctic environment is well suited as a region in which to evaluate POPs. Some regions of thee Arctic, particularly the Barents Sea area north of Norway and western Russia are relatively close to source regions of POPs. Cold conditions favor persistence of POPs relative to temperate or tropical environments. The presence of fourth level carnivores (e.g. polar bears and seabirds), and storage of lipid as an energy source, make Arctic food webs vulnerable to bioaccumulative chemicals. Indigenous people in the Arctic utilizing a traditional diet, which is high in nutritionally beneficial fat, results in their elevated exposure to some POPs. The first indication that brominated flame retardants (BFRs) were reaching the Arctic was the detection by Jansson et al. of lower molecular weight polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Svalbard Brunnichfs guillemots (130 ng/g lipid weight) and ringed seals (40 ng/g lw) collected in 1981. Whitefish collected from Lake Storvindeln in 1986, a pristine mountain lake in the Swedish mountains near Ammarnas, had {sigma}PBDE levels of 26 ng/g lw. Despite these early findings, only recently have the spatial and temporal trends of BFRs been studied in detail in the Arctic. The purpose of this paper is to review the new data on BFRs in the Arctic and assess whether this information supports the view that PBDEs and other BFRs of similar molecular weight are POPs and potential global pollutants. This review is based on a recent assessment of POPs in the Arctic combined with newer data

  17. Brominated flame retardants in the Arctic. An overview of spatial and temporal trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wit, C. de [Institute of Applied Environmental Research, Stockholm (Sweden); Alaee, M.; Muir, D. [National Water Research Institute, Burlington, MA (United States)

    2004-09-15

    The Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), which entered into force on May 17, 2004, includes wording that chemicals with the characteristics of POPs are those found in locations ''distant from sources'' and those for which ''monitoring data showing that long-range environmental transport of the chemical may have occurred''. Thus, the Arctic has become an important indicator region for assessment of persistence and bioaccumulation. The Arctic environment is well suited as a region in which to evaluate POPs. Some regions of thee Arctic, particularly the Barents Sea area north of Norway and western Russia are relatively close to source regions of POPs. Cold conditions favor persistence of POPs relative to temperate or tropical environments. The presence of fourth level carnivores (e.g. polar bears and seabirds), and storage of lipid as an energy source, make Arctic food webs vulnerable to bioaccumulative chemicals. Indigenous people in the Arctic utilizing a traditional diet, which is high in nutritionally beneficial fat, results in their elevated exposure to some POPs. The first indication that brominated flame retardants (BFRs) were reaching the Arctic was the detection by Jansson et al. of lower molecular weight polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Svalbard Brunnichfs guillemots (130 ng/g lipid weight) and ringed seals (40 ng/g lw) collected in 1981. Whitefish collected from Lake Storvindeln in 1986, a pristine mountain lake in the Swedish mountains near Ammarnas, had {sigma}PBDE levels of 26 ng/g lw. Despite these early findings, only recently have the spatial and temporal trends of BFRs been studied in detail in the Arctic. The purpose of this paper is to review the new data on BFRs in the Arctic and assess whether this information supports the view that PBDEs and other BFRs of similar molecular weight are POPs and potential global pollutants. This review is based on a recent assessment of POPs

  18. Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

    2014-01-01

    We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

  19. Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

    2017-12-01

    This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

  20. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  1. Temporal Trends in Sports Participation among Adolescents between 2001 and 2015: A French School- and Territory-Based Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxime Luiggi

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Improving adolescents’ levels of sport and physical activity (PA is an official public health issue. French national government plans were launched in 2001, 2006, and 2011 to improve the participation levels of citizens. These plans should be monitored. To date, information on temporal trends in sports has come from the national population. However, no data are available to measure temporal trends in different territories across the country. Our study aimed to measure these trends among a representative sample of adolescent students of the third biggest French region (Bouches-du-Rhône, but also one of the poorest, between 2001 and 2015. Three surveys were conducted in 2001, 2008, and 2015 in high schools (n = 3218. Logistic regressions adjusted for age were used to determine the impact of socioeconomic status (SES on sports participation and to measure the changes in sport participation rates. Participation declined among all subgroups of adolescents: from 79.0% to 65.8%. The greatest decrease was observed for boys with a high SES, whilst the lowest was for the high-SES girls. We observed that SES inequalities in access to sport increased among the girls, whilst they reduced among the boys. National government plans seem to have had limited success in this territory. Next to national studies, there is a need to develop territory specific studies which could show important disparities across the national territory.

  2. Spatial and temporal trends of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influential variables in Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yu; Xu, Youpeng; Wang, Yuefeng; Wu, Lei; Li, Guang; Song, Song

    2017-11-01

    Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important links in hydrologic circulation and greatly affects regional agricultural production and water resource management. Its variation has drawn more and more attention in the context of global warming. We used the Penman-Monteith method of the Food and Agriculture Organization, based on meteorological factors such as air temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity to calculate the ETo over 46 meteorological stations located in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China, from 1957 to 2014. The spatial distributions and temporal trends in ETo were analyzed based on the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method, while ArcGIS software was employed to produce the distribution maps. The multiple stepwise regression method was applied in the analysis of the meteorological variable time series to identify the causes of any observed trends in ETo. The results indicated that annual ETo showed an obvious spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south. Annual increasing trends were found at 34 meteorological stations (73.91 % of the total), which were mainly located in the southeast. Among them, 12 (26.09 % of the total) stations showed significant trends. We saw a dominance of increasing trends in the monthly ETo except for January, February, and August. The high value zone of monthly ETo appeared in the northwest from February to June, mid-south area from July to August, and southeast coastal area from September to January. The research period was divided into two stages—stage I (1957-1989) and stage II (1990-2014)—to investigate the long-term temporal ETo variation. In stage I, almost 85 % of the total stations experienced decreasing trends, while more than half of the meteorological stations showed significant increasing trends in annual ETo during stage II except in February and September. Relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were

  3. Temporal Trends of Hexabromocyclododecane, Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers and Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Ringed Seals from East Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vorkamp, Katrin; Riget, Frank Farsø; Bossi, Rossana

    2011-01-01

    also was found for adult seals with a time trend starting in 1994. ΣPCB decreased significantly in juvenile seals, again due to the 1986 value, while no trend was found for the adult animals. This indicates stagnating PCB concentrations at a relatively high level, in some cases possibly exceeding......Concentrations of hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) were determined in a combination of archived and fresh blubber samples of juvenile ringed seals from East Greenland collected between 1986 and 2008. R-HBCD was the only diastereoisomer consistently above levels of quantification and showed...... on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been extended with new data for 2006 and 2008. ΣPBDE in juvenile seals was the only parameter with a slight upward trend, however, dependent on the low 1986 concentration. Removing this data point resulted in a downward trend, which...

  4. Analyzing spatial and temporal trends in Aboveground Biomass within the Acadian New England Forests using the complete Landsat Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilbride, J. B.; Fraver, S.; Ayrey, E.; Weiskittel, A.; Braaten, J.; Hughes, J. M.; Hayes, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    Forests within the New England states and Canadian Maritime provinces, here described as the Acadian New England (ANE) forests, have undergone substantial disturbances due to insect, fire, and anthropogenic factors. Through repeated satellite observations captures by USGS's Landsat program, 45 years of disturbance information can be incorporated into modeling efforts to better understand the spatial and temporal trends in forest above ground biomass (AGB). Using Google's Earth Engine, annual mosaics were developed for the ANE study area and then disturbance and recovery metrics were developed using the temporal segmentation algorithm VeRDET. Normalization procedures were developed to incorporate the Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS, 1972 - 1985) data alongside the modern era of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM, 1984-2013), Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+, 1999 - present), and Operational Land Imager (OLI, 2013- present) data products. This has enabled the creation of a dataset with an unprecedented spatial and temporal view of forest landscape change. Model training was performed using was the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) and New Brunswick Permanent Sample Plot data datasets. Modeling was performed using parametric techniques such as mixed effects models and non-parametric techniques such as k-NN imputation and generalized boosted regression. We compare the biomass estimate and model accuracy to other inventory and modeling studies produced within this study area. The spatial and temporal patterns of stock changes are analyzed against resource policy, land ownership changes, and forest management.

  5. Spatial and temporal trends and flow dynamics of glyphosate and other pesticides within an agricultural watershed in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, Débora J; Okada, Elena; De Gerónimo, Eduardo; Menone, Mirta L; Aparicio, Virginia C; Costa, José L

    2017-12-01

    In the present study, we evaluated the spatial and temporal trends of current-use pesticides in surface water and sediments as well as their relationship with hydrological stream dynamics within the agricultural watershed of El Crespo stream (Buenos Aires Province, Argentina). We sampled 2 contrasting sites: site 1 (upstream), surrounded by agricultural lands, and site 2 (downstream), surrounded by natural grasslands. Most of the applied pesticides (glyphosate, 2,4-D, atrazine, tebuconazole, and imidacloprid) were detected at high frequencies in surface water samples at both sites. However, only glyphosate and aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) were present at high concentrations and had a significant spatial-temporal trend. The highest concentrations were found during spring 2014 at site 1, in association with the intense rains that occurred in that season. The fact that glyphosate and AMPA concentrations were higher than the rest of the studied compounds is closely related to the land use within the watershed, as glyphosate was the most applied herbicide during the fallow period of glyphosate-resistant crops (soybean, maize). The pesticide mixture had a significant spatial-temporal trend, reaching the highest levels during storm flow events in spring 2014. The intensive rains in spring 2014 could be the main factor influencing stream hydrology and pesticide behavior at El Crespo watershed. The estimated annual pesticide losses were 3.11 g/ha at site 1 and 0.72 g/ha at site 2. This result indicates that an attenuation process could be decreasing pesticide loads during downstream transport from site 1 to site 2. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:3206-3216. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  6. Temporal development of coastal ecosystems in the Baltic Sea - an assessment of patterns and trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsson, Jens; Bergström, Lena; Tomczak, Maciej

    2014-01-01

    in the north, covers between two to five trophic levels per area, and include time series dating back to the early 1990s. Using multivariate analyses, we assess the temporal development of species abundance or biomass at different trophic levels in relation to the development of variables related to local...... and regional climate, hydrology, nutrient loading and fishing pressure. Our results highlight the relative timing of change in ecosystem structure and the development of key biological elements across areas. Besides describing the temporal development of coastal ecosystems in the Baltic Sea during the past two...

  7. Temporal trends of latency period and perinatal survival after very early preterm premature rupture of fetal membranes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Mesa, Ernesto; Herrera, José A; Urgal, Amaya; Lazarraga, Cristina; Benítez, María J; Gómez, Cristina

    2012-08-01

    This paper shows temporal trends of latency period and perinatal survival after preterm premature rupture of membranes at or before 28 weeks (very early PPROM). We have studied retrospectively medical records of all cases of very early PPROM attended in our Obstetric Department from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A total of 327 cases of very early PPROM were attended, representing 0.4 % of all deliveries, 3.68 % of all preterm births and 15 % of cases all of PPROM. The mean gestational age at delivery was 27 weeks (range 20-34). The mean duration of latency period for the total of 327 cases was 12.1 days (range 0-83, SD 13.3), with a clear trend to its increase from 2005 (p 2000-2010, perinatal deaths reached 30.6 % of all cases, with a clear trend to decrease as gestational age at diagnosis increased, and over the years of study. We have also found a high rate of obstetric complications and a high rate of cesarean deliveries. The upward trend in the duration of latency period in all groups over the years of study and the encouraging perinatal survival observed, even in previable PPROM, are incentives to follow expectant/conservative management in these cases.

  8. Temporal and spatial trends for trace metals in streams and rivers across Sweden (1996–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fölster

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Long term data series (1996 through 2009 for trace metals were analyzed from a large number of streams and rivers across Sweden varying in tributary watershed size from 0.05 to 48 193 km2. The final data set included 139 stream sites with data for arsenic (As, cobalt (Co, copper (Cu, chromium (Cr, nickel (Ni, lead (Pb, zinc (Zn, and vanadium (V. Between 7 % and 46 % of the sites analyzed showed significant trends according to the seasonal Kendall test. However, in contrast to previous studies and depositional patterns, a substantial portion of the trends were positive, especially for V (100 %, As (95 %, and Pb (68 %. Other metals (Zn and Cr generally decreased, were mixed (Ni and Zn, or had very few trends (Co over the study period. Trends by region were also analyzed and some showed significant variation between the north and south of Sweden. Regional trends for both Cu and Pb were positive (60 % and 93 %, respectively in the southern region but strongly negative (93 % and 75 %, respectively in the northern region. Kendall's τ coefficients were used to determine dependence between metals and potential in-stream drivers including total organic carbon (TOC, iron (Fe, pH, and sulphate (SO42−. TOC and Fe correlated positively and strongly with As, V, Pb, and Co while pH and SO42− generally correlated weakly, or not at all with the metals studied.

  9. Climate variability and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants in the arctic: a study of glaucous gulls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustnes, Jan O; Gabrielsen, Geir W; Verreault, Jonathan

    2010-04-15

    The impact of climate variability on temporal trends (1997-2006) of persistent organic pollutants (POPs; polychlorinated biphenyls [PCB], hexachlorobenzene [HCB], and oxychlordane) was assessed in glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) breeding in the Norwegian Arctic (n = 240). The Arctic Oscillation (AO: an index of sea-level pressure variability in the Northern Hemisphere above 20 degrees N) with different time lags was used as a climate proxy. The estimated concentrations of POPs in glaucous gull blood/plasma declined substantially (16-60%) over the time period. Multiple regression analyses showed that the rates of decline for POPs were correlated to climate variation when controlling for potential confounding variables (sex and body condition). More specifically AO in the current winter showed negative associations with POP concentrations, whereas the relationships with AO measurements from the year preceding POP measurements (AO preceding summer and AO preceding winter) were positive. Hence, gulls had relatively higher POP concentrations in breeding seasons following years with high air transport toward the Arctic. Furthermore, the impact of AO appeared to be stronger for HCB, a relatively volatile compound with high transport potential, compared to heavy chlorinated PCB congeners. This study thus suggests that predicted climate change should be considered in assessments of future temporal trends of POPs in Arctic wildlife.

  10. Spatio-temporal trends and risk factors for Shigella from 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenyang Tang

    Full Text Available This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal trends of Shigella incidence rates in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China. It also intended to explore complex risk modes facilitating Shigella transmission.County-level incidence rates were obtained for analysis using geographic information system (GIS tools. Trend surface and incidence maps were established to describe geographic distributions. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and autocorrelation analysis were used for detecting clusters. Based on the number of monthly Shigella cases, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model successfully established a time series model. A spatial correlation analysis and a case-control study were conducted to identify risk factors contributing to Shigella transmissions.The far southwestern and northwestern areas of Jiangsu were the most infected. A cluster was detected in southwestern Jiangsu (LLR = 11674.74, P<0.001. The time series model was established as ARIMA (1, 12, 0, which predicted well for cases from August to December, 2011. Highways and water sources potentially caused spatial variation in Shigella development in Jiangsu. The case-control study confirmed not washing hands before dinner (OR = 3.64 and not having access to a safe water source (OR = 2.04 as the main causes of Shigella in Jiangsu Province.Improvement of sanitation and hygiene should be strengthened in economically developed counties, while access to a safe water supply in impoverished areas should be increased at the same time.

  11. Spatio-temporal trends and risk factors for Shigella from 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Fenyang; Cheng, Yuejia; Bao, Changjun; Hu, Jianli; Liu, Wendong; Liang, Qi; Wu, Ying; Norris, Jessie; Peng, Zhihang; Yu, Rongbin; Shen, Hongbing; Chen, Feng

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal trends of Shigella incidence rates in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China. It also intended to explore complex risk modes facilitating Shigella transmission. County-level incidence rates were obtained for analysis using geographic information system (GIS) tools. Trend surface and incidence maps were established to describe geographic distributions. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and autocorrelation analysis were used for detecting clusters. Based on the number of monthly Shigella cases, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model successfully established a time series model. A spatial correlation analysis and a case-control study were conducted to identify risk factors contributing to Shigella transmissions. The far southwestern and northwestern areas of Jiangsu were the most infected. A cluster was detected in southwestern Jiangsu (LLR = 11674.74, PHighways and water sources potentially caused spatial variation in Shigella development in Jiangsu. The case-control study confirmed not washing hands before dinner (OR = 3.64) and not having access to a safe water source (OR = 2.04) as the main causes of Shigella in Jiangsu Province. Improvement of sanitation and hygiene should be strengthened in economically developed counties, while access to a safe water supply in impoverished areas should be increased at the same time.

  12. Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

    2014-04-01

    Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (pobesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  13. Temporal trends in hyperuricaemia in the Irish health system from 2006-2014: A cohort study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2018-05-01

    Elevated serum uric acid (sUA) concentrations are common in the general population and are associated with chronic metabolic conditions and adverse clinical outcomes. We evaluated secular trends in the burden of hyperuricaemia from 2006-2014 within the Irish health system.

  14. Temporal trends of cumulative risks to phthalate mixtures in the United States from 2005 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phthalates are used in a wide range of consumer goods resulting in widespread exposures among the general population. Exposures to specific phthalates are expected to vary over time with changes in the patterns of phthalate use. We investigated the existence of trends in estimate...

  15. Temporal trends (1999–2010) of perfluoroalkyl acids in commonly consumed food items

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Jana H.; Berger, Urs; Vestergren, Robin; Cousins, Ian T.; Bignert, Anders; Glynn, Anders; Darnerud, Per Ola

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine how dietary exposure to PFAAs has changed over the period when major production changes occurred. Archived samples (1999–2010) of eggs, milk and farmed rainbow trout were analyzed by ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. Statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS) in fish (p < 0.002 and p < 0.032, respectively) and eggs (p < 0.001 for both compounds). Concentrations of PFOS in fish and eggs decreased by a factor of 10 and 40, respectively. In eggs there was also a statistically significant decreasing trend in concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The results of this study demonstrate that PFAA concentrations in food items from agricultural food chains and aquatic food chains close to sources respond rapidly to changes in environmental emissions. Implications for the overall understanding of human exposure are discussed. - Highlights: • Food items sampled yearly (1999–2010) were analyzed for perfluoroalkyl acids. • Significantly declining trends were observed for PFOS and PFHxS in farmed fish and eggs. • In eggs, an additional significant decreasing trend was found for PFOA. • A decrease in human dietary exposure to PFHxS, PFOS and PFOA is suggested. - Concentrations of PFOS in farmed fish and in hen's eggs decreased between 1999 and 2010. Furthermore, we observed decreasing trends of PFOA in eggs and PFHxS in fish

  16. Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

  17. Seeking homeostasis: Temporal trends in respiration, oxidation, and calcium in SOD1 G93A Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cameron W Irvin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Impairments in mitochondria, oxidative regulation, and calcium homeostasis have been well documented in numerous amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS experimental models, especially in the superoxide dismutase 1 glycine 93 to alanine (SOD1 G93A transgenic mouse. However, the timing of these deficiencies has been debatable. In a systematic review of 45 articles, we examine experimental measurements of cellular respiration, mitochondrial mechanisms, oxidative markers, and calcium regulation. We evaluate the quantitative magnitude and statistical temporal trend of these aggregated assessments in high transgene copy SOD1 G93A mice compared to wild type mice. Analysis of overall trends reveals cellular respiration, intracellular ATP, and corresponding mitochondrial elements (Cox, cytochrome c, complex I, enzyme activity are depressed for the entire lifespan of the SOD1 G93A mouse. Oxidant markers (H2O2, 8OH2’dG, MDA are initially similar to wild type but are double that of wild type by the time of symptom onset despite early post-natal elevation of protective heat shock proteins. All aspects of calcium regulation show early disturbances, although a notable and likely compensatory convergence to near wild type levels appears to occur between 40-80 days (pre-onset, followed by a post-onset elevation in intracellular calcium. The identified temporal trends and compensatory fluctuations provide evidence that the cause of ALS may lay within failed homeostatic regulation, itself, rather than any one particular perturbing event or cellular mechanism. We discuss the vulnerabilities of motoneurons to regulatory instability and possible hypotheses regarding failed regulation and its potential treatment in ALS.

  18. Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piyoosh, Atul Kant; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar

    2018-05-01

    Maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) are indicators of changes in climate. In this study, observed and gridded T max and T min data of Dehradun are analyzed for the period 1901-2014. Observed data obtained from India Meteorological Department and National Institute of Hydrology, whereas gridded data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were used. Efficacy of elevation-corrected CRU data was checked by cross validation using data of various stations at different elevations. In both the observed and gridded data, major change points were detected using Cumulative Sum chart. For T max, change points occur in the years 1974 and 1997, while, for T min, in 1959 and 1986. Statistical significance of trends was tested in three sub-periods based on change points using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and linear regression (LR) method. It has been found that both the T max and T min have a sequence of rising, falling, and rising trends in sub-periods. Out of three different methods used for trend tests, MK and SS have indicated similar results, while LR method has also shown similar results for most of the cases. Root-mean-square error for actual and anomaly time series of CRU data was found to be within one standard deviation of observed data which indicates that the CRU data are very close to the observed data. The trends exhibited by CRU data were also found to be similar to the observed data. Thus, CRU temperature data may be quite useful for various studies in the regions of scarcity of observational data.

  19. Temporal trends (1986–2005) of essential and non-essential elements in a terrestrial raptor in northern Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bustnes, Jan O., E-mail: Jan.O.Bustnes@nina.no [Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM — High North Research Centre on Climate and the Environment, NO-9296 Tromsø (Norway); Bårdsen, Bård-J. [Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM — High North Research Centre on Climate and the Environment, NO-9296 Tromsø (Norway); Bangjord, Georg [The Norwegian Directorate for Nature, NO-7485 Trondheim (Norway); Lierhagen, Syverin [Department of Chemistry, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim (Norway); Yoccoz, Nigel G. [Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM — High North Research Centre on Climate and the Environment, NO-9296 Tromsø (Norway); Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, NO-9037 Tromsø (Norway)

    2013-08-01

    In the recent decades, the atmospheric deposition of many metals has declined in northern Europe, mostly due to reductions of emissions in other parts of the Europe. However, less is known about the temporal trends at higher trophic levels in terrestrial food chains. In this study we measured 39 different essential and non-essential elements in tawny owl (Strix aluco) tail-feathers (n = 633) collected annually between 1986 and 2005 in Central Norway. There was a strong decline in lead (Pb) concentrations (∼ 94%) consistent with the termination of the use of Pb as a petrol additive. There were also significant declines in cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co) and arsenic (As) concentrations. Zinc (Zn) may also have declined after 2000, but this is not yet clear due to possible analytical problems. More unexpected was a strong decline of boron (B) in the late 1980s and early 1990s with a subsequent leveling-off, but with high concentrations in 1999. The decline in B could be related to changes in the agricultural practices and use of fertilizers. Tin (Sn) showed an abrupt decline in the mid-1990s, after which the concentrations established at one fifth of the level before this time. Iron (Fe) was stable until the late 1990s, but showed an increase afterwards, whereas lanthanum (La) tended to increase up to the mid-1990s and then leveled-off. Aluminum (Al) showed decreasing levels until the mid-1990s, but a considerable increase afterwards. There was a small increase in praseodymium (Pr), but the only element showing a consistent strong increase over the study period (61%) was rubidium (Rb). The causes of the temporal trends in different elements may be changed input to the local ecosystem from local and trans-boundary sources, but possibly also variation in climate and feeding conditions for the owls. - Highlights: • Long-term trends of 39 different elements were analyzed in tawny owl feathers. • Most trends followed the trends observed in moss and precipitation.

  20. Temporal trends (1986–2005) of essential and non-essential elements in a terrestrial raptor in northern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bustnes, Jan O.; Bårdsen, Bård-J.; Bangjord, Georg; Lierhagen, Syverin; Yoccoz, Nigel G.

    2013-01-01

    In the recent decades, the atmospheric deposition of many metals has declined in northern Europe, mostly due to reductions of emissions in other parts of the Europe. However, less is known about the temporal trends at higher trophic levels in terrestrial food chains. In this study we measured 39 different essential and non-essential elements in tawny owl (Strix aluco) tail-feathers (n = 633) collected annually between 1986 and 2005 in Central Norway. There was a strong decline in lead (Pb) concentrations (∼ 94%) consistent with the termination of the use of Pb as a petrol additive. There were also significant declines in cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co) and arsenic (As) concentrations. Zinc (Zn) may also have declined after 2000, but this is not yet clear due to possible analytical problems. More unexpected was a strong decline of boron (B) in the late 1980s and early 1990s with a subsequent leveling-off, but with high concentrations in 1999. The decline in B could be related to changes in the agricultural practices and use of fertilizers. Tin (Sn) showed an abrupt decline in the mid-1990s, after which the concentrations established at one fifth of the level before this time. Iron (Fe) was stable until the late 1990s, but showed an increase afterwards, whereas lanthanum (La) tended to increase up to the mid-1990s and then leveled-off. Aluminum (Al) showed decreasing levels until the mid-1990s, but a considerable increase afterwards. There was a small increase in praseodymium (Pr), but the only element showing a consistent strong increase over the study period (61%) was rubidium (Rb). The causes of the temporal trends in different elements may be changed input to the local ecosystem from local and trans-boundary sources, but possibly also variation in climate and feeding conditions for the owls. - Highlights: • Long-term trends of 39 different elements were analyzed in tawny owl feathers. • Most trends followed the trends observed in moss and precipitation.

  1. Temporal and spatial trends in sediment contaminants associated with toxicity in California watersheds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegler, Katie; Phillips, Bryn M.; Anderson, Brian S.; Voorhees, Jennifer P.; Tjeerdema, Ron S.

    2015-01-01

    California's Stream Pollution Trends program (SPoT) assesses long-term water quality trends, using 100 base-of-the-watershed sampling sites. Annual statewide sediment surveys from 2008 to 2012 identified consistent levels of statewide toxicity (19%), using the freshwater amphipod Hyalella azteca. Significant contaminant trends included a decrease in PCBs, stable concentrations of metals and PAHs, and a statewide increase in detections and concentrations of pyrethroid pesticides. The pyrethroid pesticide bifenthrin was detected in 69% of samples (n = 410). Detection of toxicity increased in a subset of samples tested at a more environmentally relevant test temperature (15 °C), and the magnitude of toxicity was much greater, indicating pyrethroid pesticides as a probable cause. Pyrethroid toxicity thresholds (LC50) were exceeded in 83% of samples with high toxicity. Principal components analysis related pyrethroids, metals and total organic carbon to urban land use. - Highlights: • Toxicity and contaminant concentrations were higher in urban dominated watersheds. • Average and range of total pyrethroid concentrations increased between 2008 and 2012. • Pyrethroid toxicity thresholds (LC50) were exceeded in 83% of samples with high toxicity. - Detections and concentrations of current use pesticides are increasing in California urban watersheds, while legacy organochlorine contaminants are decreasing statewide.

  2. Temporal trends in reproductive performance in Irish dairy herds and associated risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mee John F

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Irish dairy herd fertility has been declining since the 1980s. The extent, nature and causes of this decline in fertility and the current status of Irish dairy herd fertility were described. An increase in calving interval of approximately one day per year has been recorded. The principal components of this trend have been an increased incidence of postpartum endocrinopathies, reduced expression of oestrus and a fall in conception rate. Both submission rate and calving-to-service interval have increased slightly over time. Significant risk factors associated with these trends have been strain substitution within the Holstein-Friesian breed and single trait selection for milk production. Critically, these changes have been reflected in loss of body condition. Contributory factors included increased herd size and possibly increased use of DIYAI. The most recent Irish study showed that 48% of cows conceived to first service and 14% of cows were not pregnant at the end of the industry-average 15-week spring breeding season. However, the top quartile of herds achieved a first-service conception rate of 59%, illustrating the wide variation between herds. These phenotypic trends were attributed to both genetic and environmental factors and their interactions. Recent Irish dairy herd fertility performance falls short of the targets set for seasonal compact calving.

  3. Temporal Trends and Hydrological Controls of Fisheries Production in the Madeira River (Brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, D. A.; Lima, M. A.; Doria, C.

    2016-12-01

    Amazonian river systems are characterized by a strongly seasonal flood pulse and important hydrologic effects have been observed in the dynamics of fish stocks and fishing yields. Changes in the Amazon's freshwater ecosystems from hydropower development will have a cascade of physical, ecological, and social effects and impacts on fish and fisheries are expected to be potentially irreversible. In this work we investigate shared trends and causal factors driving fish catch in the Madeira River (a major tributary of the Amazon) before dam construction to derive relationships between catch and natural hydrologic dynamics. We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis to investigate dynamics in fish catch across ten commercially important fish species in the Madeira River using daily fish landings data including species and total weight and daily hydrological data obtained from the Brazilian Geological Service. Total annual catch averaged over the 18-yr period (1990-2007) was 849 tons yr-1. Species with the highest catch included curimatã, dourada/filhote and pacu, highlighting the importance of medium and long-distance migratory species for fisheries production. We found a four-trend dynamic factor model (DFM) to best fit the observed data, assessed using the Akaike Information Criteria. Model goodness of fit was fair (R2=0.51) but highly variable across species (0.16 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.95). Fitted trends exhibited strong and regular year-to-year variation representative of the seasonal hydrologic pulsing observed on the Madeira River. Next, we considered 11 candidate explanatory time series and found the best DFM used four explanatory variables and only one common trend. While the model fit with explanatory variables was lower (R2=0.31) it removed much reliance on unknown common trends. The most important explanatory variable in this model was maximum water level followed by days flooded, river flow of the previous year and increment. We found unique responses to hydrological

  4. An adaptive spatio-temporal smoothing model for estimating trends and step changes in disease risk

    OpenAIRE

    Rushworth, Alastair; Lee, Duncan; Sarran, Christophe

    2014-01-01

    Statistical models used to estimate the spatio-temporal pattern in disease\\ud risk from areal unit data represent the risk surface for each time period with known\\ud covariates and a set of spatially smooth random effects. The latter act as a proxy\\ud for unmeasured spatial confounding, whose spatial structure is often characterised by\\ud a spatially smooth evolution between some pairs of adjacent areal units while other\\ud pairs exhibit large step changes. This spatial heterogeneity is not c...

  5. TREND ASSESSMENT OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGE OF TEHRAN HEAT ISLAND USING SATELLITE IMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Saradjian

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Numerous investigations on Urban Heat Island (UHI show that land cover change is the main factor of increasing Land Surface Temperature (LST in urban areas, especially conversion of vegetation and bare soil to concrete, asphalt and other man-made structures. On the other hand, other human activities like those which cause to burning fossil fuels, that increase the amount of carbon dioxide, may raise temperature in global scale in comparison with small scales (urban areas. In this study, multiple satellite images with different spatial and temporal resolutions have been used to determine Land Surface Temperature (LST variability in Tehran metropolitan area. High temporal resolution of AVHRR images have been used as the main data source when investigating temperature variability in the urban area. The analysis shows that UHI appears more significant at afternoon and night hours. But the urban class temperature is almost equal to its surrounding vegetation and bare soil classes at around noon. It also reveals that there is no specific difference in UHI intense during the days throughout the year. However, it can be concluded that in the process of city expansion in years, UHI has been grown both spatially and in magnitude. In order to locate land-cover types and relate them to LST, Thematic Mapper (TM images have been exploited. The influence of elevation on the LST has also been studied, using digital elevation model derived from SRTM database.

  6. Recent Temporal Trends in Parent-Reported Physical Activity in Children in the United States, 2009 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loprinzi, Paul D; Davis, Robert E

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this study was to provide recent temporal trends in parent-reported physical activity in children (6-11 years) between 2009 and 2014. Data from the 2009 to 2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used. The analytic sample included 3946 children. Parent proxy of child physical activity at each of the 3 2-year cycles was assessed. For the entire sample, there was a quadratic trend, with the number of days children engaged in at least 60 min/d of physical activity increasing in the period 2011 to 2012 (6.12 days) when compared with the period 2009 to 2010 (5.96 days) and then decreasing in the period 2013 to 2014 (5.83 days). A similar quadratic trend was evident for boys, those above the poverty level, non-Hispanic whites (particularly boys), and those with less than the 85th body mass index-for-age percentile based on sex. A negative linear trend was observed for those above the poverty level and non-Hispanic whites (particularly girls). In conclusion, these findings provide suggestive evidence that over the past 6 years (1999-2014), parents report that children's physical activity has slightly decreased in the latest years, with this observation being most pronounced in boys, those above the poverty level, non-Hispanic whites, and those with less than the 85th body mass index-for-age and sex percentile. Encouragingly, however, across all evaluated subpopulations, most children (55%-82%), as determined by their parents, engaged in 60 min/d of physical activity (consistent with government recommendations). Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Truancy in the United States: Examining Temporal Trends and Correlates by Race, Age, and Gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Brandy R; Vaughn, Michael G; Nelson, Erik J; Salas-Wright, Christopher P; Heyne, David A; Kremer, Kristen P

    2017-10-01

    Truancy has long been regarded a common problem in urgent need of effective intervention. Knowledge about factors associated with truancy can guide the development and implementation of interventions. This paper examined trends in truancy rates between 2002-2014 and correlates of truancy across racial/ethnic groups. Variables of interest included sociodemographic factors (e.g., age, gender, socio-economic background), behavioral factors (e.g., substance use, violence), and psychosocial factors (e.g., academic engagement, grades, parental control). Using data from a large sample of adolescents (n=209,393; 12-17 years) we estimated truancy prevalence rates and examined trends and correlates via regression analyses. Truancy rates remained constant between 2002 (10.8%) and 2014 (11.1%). Rates were highest among older youth, females, and Hispanic youth. For all racial/ethnic groups, truancy was significantly correlated with alcohol and marijuana use, fighting, the propensity to take risks, and lower academic engagement and school grades. Other factors were differentially associated with racial/ethnic groups. This divergence in risk patterns for different racial/ethnic groups points to some heterogeneity amongst truant youth. Despite truancy reduction efforts, truancy rates have remained stable. Efforts to prevent truancy and to intervene with truant youth may need to target risk factors more prevalent in specific racial/ethnic groups.

  8. Spatial and Temporal Trends in the Location of the Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah A. Tennille

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The climatology of tropical cyclones is an immediate research need, specifically to better understand their long-term patterns and elucidate their future in a changing climate. One important pattern that has recently been detected is the poleward shift of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI of tropical cyclones. This study further assessed the recent (1977–2015 spatial changes in the LMI of tropical cyclones, specifically those of tropical storm strength or stronger in the North Atlantic and northern West Pacific basins. Analyses of moving decadal means suggested that LMI locations migrated south in the North Atlantic and north in the West Pacific. In addition to a linear trend, there is a cyclical migration of LMI that is especially apparent in the West Pacific. Relationships between LMI migration and intensity were explored, as well as LMI location relative to landfall. The southerly trend of LMI in the North Atlantic was most prevalent in the strongest storms, resulting in these storms reaching their LMI farther from land. The relationship between intensity and LMI migration in the West Pacific was not as clear, but the most intense storms have been reaching LMI closer to their eventual landfall location. This work adds to those emphasizing the importance of understanding the climatology of the most intense hurricanes and shows there are potential human impacts resulting from any migration of LMI.

  9. Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of primary air pollutants emissions from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue, Yifeng; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Zhou, Zhen; Wang, Junling; Nie, Lei; Pan, Tao; Zhou, Junrui; Hua, Shenbing; Wang, Yong; Wu, Xiaoqing

    2016-01-01

    Coal-fired combustion is recognized as a significant anthropogenic source of atmospheric compounds in Beijing, causing heavy air pollution events and associated deterioration in visibility. Obtaining an accurate understanding of the temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of emissions from coal-fired industrial combustion is essential for predicting air quality changes and evaluating the effectiveness of current control measures. In this study, an integrated emission inventory of primary air pollutants emitted from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing is developed for the period of 2007–2013 using a technology-based approach. Future emission trends are projected through 2030 based on current energy-related and emission control policies. Our analysis shows that there is a general downward trend in primary air pollutants emissions because of the implementation of stricter local emission standards and the promotion by the Beijing municipal government of converting from coal-fired industrial boilers to gas-fired boilers. However, the ratio of coal consumed by industrial boilers to total coal consumption has been increasing, raising concerns about the further improvement of air quality in Beijing. Our estimates indicate that the total emissions of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO x , CO and VOCs from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing in 2013 are approximately 19,242 t, 13,345 t, 26,615 t, 22,965 t, 63,779 t and 1406 t, respectively. Under the current environmental policies and relevant energy savings and emission control plans, it may be possible to reduce NO x and other air pollutant emissions by 94% and 90% by 2030, respectively, if advanced flue gas purification technologies are implemented and coal is replaced with natural gas in the majority of existing boilers. - Highlights: • A unit-based emission inventory of coal-fired industrial boilers is developed. • Temporal trend of historical period 2007–2013 and the future till 2030 is

  10. Investigation of Spatial and Temporal Trends in Water Quality in Daya Bay, South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Mei-Lin; Wang, You-Shao; Dong, Jun-De; Sun, Cui-Ci; Wang, Yu-Tu; Sun, Fu-Lin; Cheng, Hao

    2011-01-01

    The objective is to identify the spatial and temporal variability of the hydrochemical quality of the water column in a subtropical coastal system, Daya Bay, China. Water samples were collected in four seasons at 12 monitoring sites. The Southeast Asian monsoons, northeasterly from October to the next April and southwesterly from May to September have also an important influence on water quality in Daya Bay. In the spatial pattern, two groups have been identified, with the help of multidimensional scaling analysis and cluster analysis. Cluster I consisted of the sites S3, S8, S10 and S11 in the west and north coastal parts of Daya Bay. Cluster I is mainly related to anthropogenic activities such as fish-farming. Cluster II consisted of the rest of the stations in the center, east and south parts of Daya Bay. Cluster II is mainly related to seawater exchange from South China Sea. PMID:21776234

  11. Identifying seasonal and temporal trends in the pressures experienced by hospitals related to unscheduled care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, N J; Van Woerden, H C; Kiparoglou, V; Yang, Y

    2016-07-26

    As part of an electronic dashboard operated by Public Health Wales, senior managers at hospitals in Wales report daily "escalation" scores which reflect management opinion on the pressure a hospital is experiencing and ability to meet ongoing demand with respect to unscheduled care. An analysis was undertaken of escalation scores returned for 18 hospitals in Wales between the years 2006 and 2014 inclusive, with a view to identifying systematic temporal patterns in pressure experienced by hospitals in relation to unscheduled care. Exploratory data analysis indicated the presence of within-year cyclicity in average daily scores over all hospitals. In order to quantify this cyclicity, a Generalised Linear Mixed Model was fitted which incorporated a trigonometric function (sine and cosine) to capture within-year change in escalation. In addition, a 7-level categorical day of the week effect was fitted as well as a 3-level categorical Christmas holiday variable based on patterns observed in exploration of the raw data. All of the main effects investigated were found to be statistically significant. Firstly, significant differences emerged in terms of overall pressure reported by individual hospitals. Furthermore, escalation scores were found to vary systematically within-year in a wave-like fashion for all hospitals (but not between hospitals) with the period of highest pressure consistently observed to occur in winter and lowest pressure in summer. In addition to this annual variation, pressure reported by hospitals was also found to be influenced by day of the week (low at weekends, high early in the working week) and especially low over the Christmas period but high immediately afterwards. Whilst unpredictable to a degree, quantifiable pressure experienced by hospitals can be anticipated according to models incorporating systematic temporal patterns. In the context of finite resources for healthcare services, these findings could optimise staffing schedules and

  12. Temporal trends in childhood mortality in Ghana: impacts and challenges of health policies and programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbenga A. Kayode

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Following the adoption of the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4 in Ghana to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, efforts were made towards its attainment. However, impacts and challenges of implemented intervention programs have not been examined to inform implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2 that seeks to end preventable deaths of newborns and children aged under-five. Thus, this study aimed to compare trends in neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality over two decades and to highlight the impacts and challenges of health policies and intervention programs implemented. Design: Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data (1988–2008 were analyzed using trend analysis. Poisson regression analysis was applied to quantify the incidence rate ratio of the trends. Implemented health policies and intervention programs to reduce childhood mortality in Ghana were reviewed to identify their impact and challenges. Results: Since 1988, the annual average rate of decline in neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality in Ghana was 0.6, 1.0, and 1.2%, respectively. From 1988 to 1989, neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality declined from 48 to 33 per 1,000, 72 to 58 per 1,000, and 108 to 83 per 1,000, respectively, whereas from 1989 to 2008, neonatal mortality increased by 2 per 1,000 while infant and under-five mortality further declined by 6 per 1,000 and 17 per 1,000, respectively. However, the observed declines were not statistically significant except for under-five mortality; thus, the proportion of infant and under-five mortality attributed to neonatal death has increased. Most intervention programs implemented to address childhood mortality seem not to have been implemented comprehensively. Conclusion: Progress towards attaining MDG 4 in Ghana was below the targeted rate, particularly for neonatal mortality as most health policies and programs targeted infant and under-five mortality

  13. Temporal Trends and Changing Racial/ethnic Disparities in Alcohol Problems: Results from the 2000 to 2010 National Alcohol Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemore, Sarah E; Karriker-Jaffe, Katherine J; Mulia, Nina

    2013-09-28

    Economic conditions and drinking norms have been in considerable flux over the past 10 years. Accordingly, research is needed to evaluate both overall trends in alcohol problems during this period and whether changes within racial/ethnic groups have affected racial/ethnic disparities. We used 3 cross-sectional waves of National Alcohol Survey data (2000, 2005, and 2010) to examine a) temporal trends in alcohol dependence and consequences overall and by race/ethnicity, and b) the effects of temporal changes on racial/ethnic disparities. Analyses involved bivariate tests and multivariate negative binomial regressions testing the effects of race/ethnicity, survey year, and their interaction on problem measures. Both women and men overall showed significant increases in dependence symptoms in 2010 (vs. 2000); women also reported increases in alcohol-related consequences in 2010 (vs. 2000). (Problem rates were equivalent across 2005 and 2000.) However, increases in problems were most dramatic among Whites, and dependence symptoms actually decreased among Latinos of both genders in 2010. Consequently, the long-standing disparity in dependence between Latino and White men was substantially reduced in 2010. Post-hoc analyses suggested that changes in drinking norms at least partially drove increased problem rates among Whites. Results constitute an important contribution to the literature on racial/ethnic disparities in alcohol problems. Findings are not inconsistent with the macroeconomic literature suggesting increases in alcohol problems during economic recession, but the pattern of effects across race/ethnicity and findings regarding norms together suggest, at the least, a revised understanding of how recessions affect drinking patterns and problems.

  14. Evaluating temporal consistency of long-term global NDVI datasets for trend analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tian, Feng; Fensholt, Rasmus; Verbesselt, Jan

    2015-01-01

    -sensor NDVI time series by analyzing the co-occurrence between breaks in the NDVI time series and sensor shifts from GIMMS3g (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation), VIP3 (Vegetation Index and Phenology version 3), LTDR4 (Long Term Data Record version 4) and SPOT-VGT (Système Pour l......, potentially introducing uncertainties in NDVI trend analysis. Platform/sensor change from VGT-1 to VGT-2 is found to cause a significant positive break in the SPOT-VGT NDVI time series. Potential artifacts exist in humid, dry-subhumid, semi-arid and hyper-arid regions of GIMMS3g NDVI, whereas no signs...

  15. Temporal trends in arthropod abundances after the transition to organic farming in paddy fields.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaru H Tsutsui

    Full Text Available Organic farming aims to reduce the effect on the ecosystem and enhance biodiversity in agricultural areas, but the long-term effectiveness of its application is unclear. Assessments have rarely included various taxonomic groups with different ecological and economic roles. In paddy fields with different numbers of years elapsed since the transition from conventional to organic farming, we investigated changes in the abundance of insect pests, generalist predators, and species of conservation concern. The abundance of various arthropods exhibited diverse trends with respect to years elapsed since the transition to organic farming. Larval lepidopterans, Tetragnatha spiders, and some planthoppers and stink bugs showed non-linear increases over time, eventually reaching saturation, such as the abundance increasing for several years and then becoming stable after 10 years. This pattern can be explained by the effects of residual pesticides, the lag time of soil mineralization, and dispersal limitation. A damselfly (Ischnura asiatica did not show a particular trend over time, probably due to its rapid immigration from source habitats. Unexpectedly, both planthoppers and some leafhoppers exhibited gradual decreases over time. As their abundances were negatively related to the abundance of Tetragnatha spiders, increased predation by natural enemies might gradually decrease these insect populations. These results suggest that the consideration of time-dependent responses of organisms is essential for the evaluation of the costs and benefits of organic farming, and such evaluations could provide a basis for guidelines regarding the length of time for organic farming to restore biodiversity or the economic subsidy needed to compensate for pest damage.

  16. Temporal trends and regional variations in gastrointestinal cancer mortality in Peru, 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Vásquez, Akram; Bendezú-Quispe, Guido; Azañedo, Diego; Huarez, Bertha; Rodríguez-Lema, Belén

    2016-01-01

    To estimate and analyze the evolution of mortality rates of gastrointestinal (GI) cancer in Peru and its regions between 2005-2014. We performed a nationwide secondary analysis of Peru's Health Ministry registry of deaths during the period 2005-2014, with a focus on regional differences. Deaths registered with codes C15 to C25 (malignant neoplasms of digestive organs) from the ICD-10 were included. Calculation of age-standarized mortality rates and years of life lost (YLL) due to GI cancer per 100,000 habitants were also performed. Data of 67,527 deaths from GI cancers was analyzed, 35,055 (51.91%) were women. In 2005, the number of GI cancer deaths was 6,484, for 2014, 7,532 cases were recorded. The GI cancer age-standarized mortality rates at the country level showed a decrease of 12.70% between 2005-2014. Stomach cancer presented the highest age-standarized mortality rate despite showing a downward trend in the last years, equal for gallbladder, liver and biliary tract, and esophagus cancer. Colorectal, small intestine and anus cancer show a progressive increase. In 2014, Callao (48.8), Huancavelica (48.5), La Libertad (39.6), Lambayeque (40.5) and Huanuco (38.9) had the highest rates. The three types of GI cancers with the highest rates of YLL in 2014 were stomach cancer (118.51), followed by liver and biliary tract cancer (58.68) and colorectal (44.86). GI cancer mortality in Peru is high and a priority issue in regions like Huancavelica, Huanuco, Callao, La Libertad and Lambayeque. Stomach cancer remains the most frequent GI cancer, but with a downward trend in the study period.

  17. Spatial-temporal Evolution of Vegetation Coverage and Analysis of it’s Future Trends in Wujiang River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jianyong; Bai, Xiaoyong; Zhou, Dequan; Qian, Qinghuan; Zeng, Cheng; Chen, Fei

    2018-01-01

    Vegetation coverage dynamics is affected by climatic, topography and human activities, which is an important indicator reflecting the regional ecological environment. Revealing the spatial-temporal characteristics of vegetation coverage is of great significance to the protection and management of ecological environment. Based on MODIS NDVI data and the Maximum Value Composites (MVC), we excluded soil spectrum interference to calculate Fractional Vegetation Coverage (FVC). Then the long-term FVC was used to calculate the spatial pattern and temporal variation of vegetation in Wujiang River Basin from 2000 to 2016 by using Trend analysis and Hurst index. The relationship between topography and spatial distribution of FVC was analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The multi-annual mean vegetation coverage reveals a spatial distribution variation characteristic of low value in midstream and high level in other parts of the basin, owing a mean value of 0.6567. (2) From 2000 to 2016, the FVC of the Wujiang River Basin fluctuated between 0.6110 and 0.7380, and the overall growth rate of FVC was 0.0074/a. (3) The area of vegetation coverage tending to improve is more than that going to degrade in the future. Grass land, Arable land and Others improved significantly; karst rocky desertification comprehensive management project lead to persistent vegetation coverage improvement of Grass land, Arable land and Others. Residential land is covered with obviously degraded vegetation, resulting of urban sprawl; (4) The spatial distribution of FVC is positively correlated with TNI. Researches of spatial-temporal evolution of vegetation coverage have significant meaning for the ecological environment protection and management of the Wujiang River Basin.

  18. Spatial and temporal evapotranspiration trends after wildfire in semi-arid landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poon, Patrick K.; Kinoshita, Alicia M.

    2018-04-01

    In recent years climate change and other anthropogenic factors have contributed to increased wildfire frequency and size in western United States forests. This research focuses on the evaluation of spatial and temporal changes in evapotranspiration (ET) following the 2011 Las Conchas Fire in New Mexico (USA) using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model (SSEBop ET). Evapotranspiration is coupled with soil burn severity and analyzed for 16 watersheds for water years 2001-2014. An average annual decrease of 120 mm of ET is observed within the regions affected by the Las Conchas Fire, and conifers were converted to grassland a year after the fire. On average, the post-fire annual ET in high, moderate, and low burn severity is lower than pre-fire ET by approximately 103-352 mm, 97-304 mm, and 91-268 mm, respectively. The ratio of post-fire evapotranspiration to precipitation (ET/P) is statistically different from pre-fire conditions (α = 0.05) in nine of the watersheds. The largest decrease in ET is approximately 13-57 mm per month and is most prominent during the summer (April to September). The observed decrease in ET contributes to our understanding of changes in water yield following wildfires, which is of interest for accurately modeling and predicting hydrologic processes in semi-arid landscapes.

  19. Spatial and temporal trends in occurrence of emerging and legacy contaminants in the Lower Columbia River 2008-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, David A.; Perkins, Stephanie D.; Nilsen, Elena B.; Morace, Jennifer L.

    2014-01-01

    The Lower Columbia River in Oregon and Washington, USA, is an important resource for aquatic and terrestrial organisms, agriculture, and commerce. An 86-mile stretch of the river was sampled over a 3 year period in order to determine the spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence and concentration of water-borne organic contaminants. Sampling occurred at 10 sites along this stretch and at 1 site on the Willamette River using the semipermeable membrane device (SPMD) and the polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS) passive samplers. Contaminant profiles followed the predicted trends of lower numbers of detections and associated concentrations in the rural areas to higher numbers and concentrations at the more urbanized sites. Industrial chemicals, plasticizers, and PAHs were present at the highest concentrations. Differences in concentrations between sampling periods were related to the amount of rainfall during the sampling period. In general, water concentrations of wastewater-related contaminants decreased and concentrations of legacy contaminants slightly increased with increasing rainfall amounts.

  20. Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Hagai; Jørgensen, Niels; Martino-Andrade, Anderson; Mendiola, Jaime; Weksler-Derri, Dan; Mindlis, Irina; Pinotti, Rachel; Swan, Shanna H

    2017-11-01

    Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. To provide a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of recent trends in sperm counts as measured by sperm concentration (SC) and total sperm count (TSC), and their modification by fertility and geographic group. PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for English language studies of human SC published in 1981-2013. Following a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years of sample collection and covariates [fertility group ('Unselected by fertility' versus 'Fertile'), geographic group ('Western', including North America, Europe Australia and New Zealand versus 'Other', including South America, Asia and Africa), age, ejaculation abstinence time, semen collection method, method of measuring SC and semen volume, exclusion criteria and indicators of completeness of covariate data]. The slopes of SC and TSC were estimated as functions of sample collection year using both simple linear regression and weighted meta-regression models and the latter were adjusted for pre-determined covariates and modification by fertility and geographic group. Assumptions were examined using multiple sensitivity analyses and nonlinear models. SC declined significantly between 1973 and 2011 (slope in unadjusted simple regression models -0.70 million/ml/year; 95% CI: -0.72 to -0.69; P regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because

  1. Spatial and temporal trends in PCBs in sediment along the lower Rhone River, France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desmet, Marc, E-mail: marc.desmet@univ-tours.fr [EA 6293 GeHCO Universite Francois-Rabelais de Tours, Parc de Grandmont, 37200 Tours (France); Mourier, Brice, E-mail: brice.mourier@entpe.fr [Universite Lyon 1, UMR 5023 Ecologie des Hydrosystemes Naturels et Anthropises, ENTPE, CNRS, 3, Rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Mahler, Barbara J., E-mail: bjmahler@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, 1505 Ferguson Lane, Austin, TX 78754 (United States); Van Metre, Peter C., E-mail: pcvanmet@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, 1505 Ferguson Lane, Austin, TX 78754 (United States); Roux, Gwenaeelle, E-mail: gwenaelle.roux@entpe.fr [Universite Lyon 1, UMR 5023 Ecologie des Hydrosystemes Naturels et Anthropises, ENTPE, CNRS, 3, Rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Persat, Henri, E-mail: persat@biomserv.univ-lyon1.fr [Universite de Lyon, UMR 5023 Ecologie des Hydrosystemes Naturels et Anthropises, Universite Lyon 1, ENTPE, CNRS, 5 rue Raphaeel Dubois, 69221 Villeurbanne (France); Lefevre, Irene, E-mail: Irene.Lefevre@lsce.ipsl.fr [UMR 8212, LSCE, Bat. 12, avenue de la Terrasse, F-91198 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Peretti, Annie, E-mail: royannie@gmail.com [Irstea, UR MALY, 3 bis Quai Chauveau, CP220, F-69336 Lyon (France); and others

    2012-09-01

    Despite increasingly strict control of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) releases in France since the mid-1970s, PCB contamination of fish recently has emerged as a major concern in the lower Rhone River basin. We measured PCB concentrations in Rhone sediment to evaluate the effects of PCB releases from major urban and industrial areas, sediment redistribution by large floods, and regulatory controls on PCB trends from 1970 to present. Profiles of PCBs (the sum of seven indicator PCB congeners) were reconstructed from sediment cores collected from an off-river rural reference site and from three depositional areas along the Rhone upstream and downstream from the city of Lyon, France. Core chronology was determined from radionuclide profiles and flood deposits. PCB concentrations increased progressively in the downstream direction, and reached a maximum concentration in 1991 of 281 {mu}g/kg at the most downstream site. At the rural reference site and at the upstream Rhone site, PCB concentrations peaked in the 1970s (maximum concentration of 13 and 78 {mu}g/kg, respectively) and have decreased exponentially since then. PCB concentrations in the middle and downstream cores were elevated into the early 1990s, decreased very rapidly until 2000, and since then have remained relatively stable. Congener profiles for three time windows (1965-80, 1986-93, and 2000-08) were similar in the three sediment cores from the Rhone and different from those at the rural reference site. The results indicate that permitted discharges from a hazardous-waste treatment facility upstream from Lyon might have contributed to high concentrations into the 1980-90s, but that industrial discharges from the greater Lyon area and tributaries to the Rhone near Lyon have had a greater contribution since the 1990s. There is little indication that PCB concentration in sediments downstream from Lyon will decrease over at least the short term. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We reconstructed

  2. Mercury levels in herring gulls and fish: 42 years of spatio-temporal trends in the Great Lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blukacz-Richards, E Agnes; Visha, Ariola; Graham, Matthew L; McGoldrick, Daryl L; de Solla, Shane R; Moore, David J; Arhonditsis, George B

    2017-04-01

    Total mercury levels in aquatic birds and fish communities have been monitored across the Canadian Great Lakes by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the past 42 years (1974-2015). These data (22 sites) were used to examine spatio-temporal variability of mercury levels in herring gull (Larus argentatus) eggs, lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), walleye (Sander vitreus), and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). Trends were quantified with dynamic linear models, which provided time-variant rates of change of mercury concentrations. Lipid content (in both fish and eggs) and length in fish were used as covariates in all models. For the first three decades, mercury levels in gull eggs and fish declined at all stations. In the 2000s, trends for herring gull eggs reversed at two sites in Lake Erie and two sites in Lake Ontario. Similar trend reversals in the 2000s were observed for lake trout in Lake Superior and at a single station in Lake Ontario. Mercury levels in lake trout continued to slowly decline at all of the remaining stations, except for Lake Huron, where the levels remained stable. A post-hoc Bayesian regression analysis suggests strong trophic interactions between herring gulls and rainbow smelt in Lake Superior and Lake Ontario, but also pinpoints the likelihood of a trophic decoupling in Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Continued monitoring of mercury levels in herring gulls and fish is required to consolidate these trophic shifts and further evaluate their broader implications. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Temporal trends of functional dependence and survival among older adults from 1991 to 2010 in Sweden: toward a healthier aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angleman, Sara B; Santoni, Giola; Von Strauss, Eva; Fratiglioni, Laura

    2015-06-01

    Declines in functional dependence among older adults were observed before the 1990s, but there is uncertainty about subsequent trends. Our study aimed to verify the temporal trends in disability during 1991-2010 in an older Swedish population and to estimate the associated changes in survival. Functional status in octogenarians and nonagenarians was assessed at seven occasions with intervals of 2-3 years. Sample size varied at each assessment with an average of 646 (range 212-1096). Disability was defined as difficulty in one or more of personal activities of daily living. We compared prevalence and incidence, as well as mortality, and survival associated with disability over the 20-year period. Sex-standardized prevalence of disability remained steady over time with a tendency toward a gradual decline, and a statistically significant decrease was present among nonagenarians. Sex-standardized cumulative incidence also remained steady. The proportion of people with prevalent disability who died <3 years remained stable, as did the survival time of people with incident disability. In contrast, among nondisabled persons, 3-year mortality decreased significantly, and for octogenarians median survival time was 1.3 years longer at the more recent assessment than a decade earlier. Both prevalence and incidence of disability remained stable over the last two decades in this urban Swedish population, with a trend toward a slow decline. Mortality remained steady among disabled persons but decreased among persons without disability, suggesting that increased life expectancy during the last two decades may be essentially driven by longer lives of functionally independent people. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence in southern Europe: a population study in the health district of Ferrara, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govoni, Vittorio; Cesnik, Edward; Casetta, Ilaria; Tugnoli, Valeria; Tola, Maria Rosaria; Granieri, Enrico

    2012-08-01

    Data about the temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incidence in southern Europe are scarce. Incidence studies on ALS have been carried out in the health district of Ferrara, Italy, since 1960s. We expanded the previous studies from 1964 to 2009. The study was prospective with a subsequent retrospective intensive survey of multiple sources of case ascertainment. All patients with a definite and probable ALS according to the original El Escorial criteria were selected. There were 130 incident cases in the years 1964-2009 giving an average annual crude incidence of 1.82 per 100,000 population (95% CI 1.53-2.17). An incidence increase during the study period was estimated in women (χ(2) test for trend = 7.19, p < 0.01) and in the elderly (χ(2) test for trend = 7.803, p < 0.01). The age-adjusted incidence was stable over time in both women (1.19 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.90-1.52) and men (1.45 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.12-1.84). The annual number of new ALS cases in the study population followed the Poisson distribution in both sexes as well as in the elderly group of the population. The present findings suggest that ALS incidence is nearly stable over time. The crude incidence increase we estimated over time among women is mainly explained by population ageing. The increasing incidence in the elderly population was likely the consequence of an increasing precision in ALS diagnosis in the elderly since the increasing attention and care over time of neurologic elderly patients that likely concern elderly women more than previous time periods rather than better case ascertainment of diagnosed patients. The present findings do not support the role of specific environmental factors in ALS pathogenesis.

  5. Spatial and temporal trends of bat-borne rabies in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, L E; Restif, O; Yung, V; Favi, M; Pons, D J; Medina-Vogel, G

    2015-05-01

    In Chile, while dog rabies has decreased markedly over the last 30 years, bat rabies is still reported frequently. In order to shed new light on the spatiotemporal trends of these reports, we analysed active and passive data from years 1985 and 2012, which included 61 076 samples from 289 counties of Chile. We found that from 1994 to 2012, more than 15 000 bat samples were submitted for diagnostics through passive surveillance, 9·5% of which tested positive for rabies. By contrast, the prevalence of infection was only ~0·4% among the nearly 12 000 bat samples submitted through active surveillance. We found that the prevalence of dog rabies dropped steadily over the same period, with just a single confirmed case since 1998. None of the 928 samples from wild animals, other than bats, were positive for rabies. Although there has been only one confirmed case of human rabies in Chile since 1985, and a single confirmed case in a dog since 1998, bats remain a reservoir for rabies viruses. While active surveillance indicates that rabies prevalence is low in bat colonies, the high proportion of positive bats submitted through passive surveillance is a concern. To prevent human rabies, local public health agencies should increase research on the basic ecology of bats and the role of stray dogs and cats as potential rabies amplifiers.

  6. Pneumonia after Major Cancer Surgery: Temporal Trends and Patterns of Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Q. Trinh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Rationale. Pneumonia is a leading cause of postoperative complication. Objective. To examine trends, factors, and mortality of postoperative pneumonia following major cancer surgery (MCS. Methods. From 1999 to 2009, patients undergoing major forms of MCS were identified using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS, a Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP subset, resulting in weighted 2,508,916 patients. Measurements. Determinants were examined using logistic regression analysis adjusted for clustering using generalized estimating equations. Results. From 1999 to 2009, 87,867 patients experienced pneumonia following MCS and prevalence increased by 29.7%. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC of mortality after MCS was −2.4% (95% CI: −2.9 to −2.0, P<0.001; the EAPC of mortality associated with pneumonia after MCS was −2.2% (95% CI: −3.6 to 0.9, P=0.01. Characteristics associated with higher odds of pneumonia included older age, male, comorbidities, nonprivate insurance, lower income, hospital volume, urban, Northeast region, and nonteaching status. Pneumonia conferred a 6.3-fold higher odd of mortality. Conclusions. Increasing prevalence of pneumonia after MCS, associated with stable mortality rates, may result from either increased diagnosis or more stringent coding. We identified characteristics associated with pneumonia after MCS which could help identify at-risk patients in order to reduce pneumonia after MCS, as it greatly increases the odds of mortality.

  7. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of projected precipitation data over Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhire, I.; Tesfamichael, S. G.; Ahmed, F.; Minani, E.

    2018-01-01

    This study applied a number of statistical techniques aimed at quantifying the magnitude of projected mean rainfall and number of rainy days over Rwanda on monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales for the period 2015-2050. The datasets for this period were generated by BCM2.0 for the SRES emission scenario SRB1, CO2 concentration for the baseline scenario (2011-2030) using the stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG). It was observed that on average, there will be a steady decline in mean rainfall. Save for the short rainy season, a positive trend in mean rainfall is expected over the south-west, the north-east region, and the northern highlands. The other regions (central, south-east, and western regions) are likely to experience a decline in mean rainfall. The number of rainy days is expected to decrease in the central plateau and the south-eastern lowlands, while the south-west, the north-west, and north-east regions are expected to have a pattern of increased number of rainy days. This decline in mean rainfall and rainy days over a large part of Rwanda is an indicator of just how much the country is bound to experience reduced water supply for various uses (e.g., agriculture, domestic activities, and industrial activities).

  8. Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum, South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, Aleyamma; George, Preethi Sara; Arjunan, Asha; Augustine, Paul; Kalavathy, Mc; Padmakumari, G; Mathew, Beela Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005- 2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019- 20. BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.

  9. Persistent organic pollutants and mercury in marine biota of the Canadian Arctic: an overview of spatial and temporal trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braune, B M; Outridge, P M; Fisk, A T; Muir, D C G; Helm, P A; Hobbs, K; Hoekstra, P F; Kuzyk, Z A; Kwan, M; Letcher, R J; Lockhart, W L; Norstrom, R J; Stern, G A; Stirling, I

    2005-12-01

    This review summarizes and synthesizes the significant amount of data which was generated on mercury (Hg) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Canadian Arctic marine biota since the first Canadian Arctic Contaminants Assessment Report (CACAR) was published in 1997. This recent body of work has led to a better understanding of the current levels and spatial and temporal trends of contaminants in biota, including the marine food species that northern peoples traditionally consume. Compared to other circumpolar countries, concentrations of many organochlorines (OCs) in Canadian Arctic marine biota are generally lower than in the European Arctic and eastern Greenland but are higher than in Alaska, whereas Hg concentrations are substantially higher in Canada than elsewhere. Spatial coverage of OCs in ringed seals, beluga and seabirds remains a strength of the Arctic contaminant data set for Canada. Concentrations of OCs in marine mammals and seabirds remain fairly consistent across the Canadian Arctic although subtle differences from west to east and south to north are found in the proportions of various chemicals. The most significant development since 1997 is improvement in the temporal trend data sets, thanks to the use of archived tissue samples from the 1970s and 1980s, long-term studies using archeological material, as well as the continuation of sampling. These data cover a range of species and chemicals and also include retrospective studies on new chemicals such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers. There is solid evidence in a few species (beluga, polar bear, blue mussels) that Hg at some locations has significantly increased from pre-industrial times to the present; however, the temporal trends of Hg over the past 20-30 years are inconsistent. Some animal populations exhibited significant increases in Hg whereas others did not. Therefore, it is currently not possible to determine if anthropogenic Hg is generally increasing in Canadian Arctic biota. It is

  10. Spatial and temporal trends in water quality in a Mediterranean temporary river impacted by sewage effluents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Arthur; Tournoud, Marie-George; Perrin, Jean-Louis; Rosain, David; Rodier, Claire; Salles, Christian; Bancon-Montigny, Chrystelle; Picot, Bernadette

    2013-03-01

    This paper analyzes how changes in hydrological conditions can affect the water quality of a temporary river that receives direct inputs of sewage effluents. Data from 12 spatial surveys of the Vène river were examined. Physico-chemical parameters, major ion, and nutrient concentrations were measured. Analyses of variance (ANOVA) and multivariate analyses were performed. ANOVA revealed significant spatial differences for conductivity and major ion but no significant spatial differences for nutrient concentrations even if higher average concentrations were observed at stations located downstream from sewage effluent discharge points. Significant temporal differences were observed among all the parameters. Karstic springs had a marked dilution effect on the direct disposal of sewage effluents. During high-flow periods, nutrient concentrations were high to moderate whereas nutrient concentrations ranged from moderate to bad at stations located downstream from the direct inputs of sewage effluents during low-flow periods. Principal component analysis showed that water quality parameters that explained the water quality of the Vène river were highly dependent on hydrological conditions. Cluster analysis showed that when the karstic springs were flowing, water quality was homogeneous all along the river, whereas when karstic springs were dry, water quality at the monitoring stations was more fragmented. These results underline the importance of considering hydrological conditions when monitoring the water quality of temporary rivers. In view of the pollution observed in the Vène river, "good water chemical status" can probably only be achieved by improving the management of sewage effluents during low-flow periods.

  11. Temporal and spatial trends studied by lichen analysis: atmospheric deposition of trace elements in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aspiazu, J.; Cervantes, L.; Ramirez, J.; Lopez, J.; Villasenor, P. [ININ, 52045 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico); Ramos, R.; Munoz, R. [Secretaria del Medio Ambiente, Gestion Ambiental del Aire, Mexico City (Mexico)

    2007-07-01

    Ball moss on Tillandsia recurvata (Bromeliaceae), collected in an area previously identified as unpolluted, was transplanted to thirteen bio-monitoring sites in the downtown and metropolitan areas of Mexico City (which cover a surface of 9,560 km{sup 2}) during the periods August 2002 - January 2003 and July 2003 - October 2003. A total of 52 lichens (weighing 300 g) were transplanted to each place. Two were analysed as zero or reference, El Chico National Park, a location 100 Km upwind from the city and the remaining 26 were hung in nylon net bags in order to be able to collect two transplanted tree month, out of every season over a one-year period. The concentrations were measured by the quantitative PIXE method based on an extemal beam facility. The atmospheric deposition for trace elements was inferred by its concentration in lichen samples collected in 2002 from 13 sites in Mexico and compared with data from a similar survey in 2003. The concentration of Cr, Cu, Co, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn and other elements was determined for each sample. Maps for each element were drawn after a geostatistical estimate of the metal concentration in the sample was made. Maps were drawn for all elements with the estimated values. Geographical distribution patterns were obtained for the different metals, reflecting the contribution of natural and anthropogenic emission sources. The deposition patterns of V, As, Se, Cd and Pb are substantially influenced by long-range transport from other parts of Mexico City. For Cr, Fe, Co, Ni, and Cu, the deposition patterns are largely determined by contribution from point sources within Mexico and in the metropolitan area. The lichen data for Br and, in part, Se reflect an airborne supply from the environment. Contributions to trace element concentrations in lichen sources other than atmospheric deposition are identified and discussed. The Spatial and temporal variations in the distribution of metal concentration are discussed. (Author)

  12. Temporal and spatial trends studied by lichen analysis: atmospheric deposition of trace elements in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aspiazu, J.; Cervantes, L.; Ramirez, J.; Lopez, J.; Villasenor, P.; Ramos, R.; Munoz, R.

    2007-01-01

    Ball moss on Tillandsia recurvata (Bromeliaceae), collected in an area previously identified as unpolluted, was transplanted to thirteen bio-monitoring sites in the downtown and metropolitan areas of Mexico City (which cover a surface of 9,560 km 2 ) during the periods August 2002 - January 2003 and July 2003 - October 2003. A total of 52 lichens (weighing 300 g) were transplanted to each place. Two were analysed as zero or reference, El Chico National Park, a location 100 Km upwind from the city and the remaining 26 were hung in nylon net bags in order to be able to collect two transplanted tree month, out of every season over a one-year period. The concentrations were measured by the quantitative PIXE method based on an extemal beam facility. The atmospheric deposition for trace elements was inferred by its concentration in lichen samples collected in 2002 from 13 sites in Mexico and compared with data from a similar survey in 2003. The concentration of Cr, Cu, Co, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn and other elements was determined for each sample. Maps for each element were drawn after a geostatistical estimate of the metal concentration in the sample was made. Maps were drawn for all elements with the estimated values. Geographical distribution patterns were obtained for the different metals, reflecting the contribution of natural and anthropogenic emission sources. The deposition patterns of V, As, Se, Cd and Pb are substantially influenced by long-range transport from other parts of Mexico City. For Cr, Fe, Co, Ni, and Cu, the deposition patterns are largely determined by contribution from point sources within Mexico and in the metropolitan area. The lichen data for Br and, in part, Se reflect an airborne supply from the environment. Contributions to trace element concentrations in lichen sources other than atmospheric deposition are identified and discussed. The Spatial and temporal variations in the distribution of metal concentration are discussed. (Author)

  13. Geographic and temporal trends in proboscidean and human radiocarbon histories during the late Pleistocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugan, Andrew; Byers, David

    2007-12-01

    The causes of large animal extinctions at the end of the Pleistocene remain a hotly debated topic focused primarily on the effects of human over hunting and climate change. Here we examine multiple, large radiocarbon data sets for humans and extinct proboscideans and explore how variation in their temporal and geographic distributions were related prior to proboscidean extinction. These data include 4532 archaeological determinations from Europe and Siberia and 1177 mammoth and mastodont determinations from Europe, Siberia, and North America. All span the period from 45,000 to 12,000 calendar years BP. We show that while the geographic ranges of dated human occupations and proboscidean remains overlap across the terminal Pleistocene of the Old World, the two groups remain largely segregated and increases in the frequency of human occupations do not coincide with declines in proboscidean remains. Prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ca 21,000 years BP), archaeological 14C determinations increase slightly in frequency worldwide while the frequency of dated proboscidean remains varies depending on taxon and location. After the LGM, both sympatric and allopatric groups of humans and proboscideans increase sharply as climatic conditions ameliorate. Post-LGM radiocarbon frequencies among proboscideans peak at different times, also depending upon taxon and location. Woolly mammoths in Beringia reach a maximum and then decline beginning between 16,000 and 15,500 years BP, woolly mammoths in Europe and Siberia ca 14,500 and 13,500 BP, and Columbian mammoth and American mastodont only after 13,000 BP. Declines among woolly mammoths appear to coincide with the restructuring of biotic communities following the Pleistocene-Holocene transition.

  14. Spatial and temporal trends of freshwater mussel assemblages in the Meramec River Basin, Missouri, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinck, Jo Ellen; McMurray, Stephen E.; Roberts, Andrew D.; Barnhart, M. Christopher; Ingersoll, Christopher G.; Wang, Ning; Augspurger, Tom

    2012-01-01

    The Meramec River basin in east-central Missouri has one of the most diverse unionoid mussel faunas in the central United States with >40 species identified. Data were analyzed from historical surveys to test whether diversity and abundance of mussels in the Meramec River basin (Big, Bourbeuse, and Meramec rivers, representing >400 river miles) decreased between 1978 and 1997. We found that over 20y, species richness and diversity decreased significantly in the Bourbeuse and Meramec rivers but not in the Big River. Most species were found at fewer sites and in lower numbers in 1997 than in 1978. Federally endangered species and Missouri Species of Conservation Concern with the most severe temporal declines were Alasmidonta viridis, Arcidens confragosus, Elliptio crassidens, Epioblasma triquetra, Fusconaia ebena, Lampsilis abrupta, Lampsilis brittsi, and Simpsonaias ambigua. Averaged across all species, mussels were generally being extirpated from historical sampling sites more rapidly than colonization was occurring. An exception was one reach of the Meramec River between river miles 28.4 and 59.5, where mussel abundance and diversity were greater than in other reaches and where colonization of Margaritiferidae, Lampsilini, and Quadrulini exceeded extirpation. The exact reasons mussel diversity and abundance have remained robust in this 30- mile reach is uncertain, but the reach is associated with increased gradients, few long pools, and vertical rock faces, all of which are preferable for mussels. Complete loss of mussel communities at eight sites (16%) with relatively diverse historical assemblages was attributed to physical habitat changes including bank erosion, unstable substrate, and sedimentation. Mussel conservation efforts, including restoring and protecting riparian habitats, limiting the effects of in-stream sand and gravel mining, monitoring and controlling invasive species, and protecting water quality, may be warranted in the Meramec River basin.

  15. Spatial and temporal trends in PCBs in sediment along the lower Rhone River, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desmet, Marc; Mourier, Brice; Mahler, Barbara J.; Van Metre, Peter C.; Roux, Gwenaelle; Persat, Henri; Lefevre, Irene; Peretti, Annie; Chapron, Emmanuel; Anaelle, Simonneau; Miege, Cecile; Babut, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Despite increasingly strict control of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) releases in France since the mid-1970s, PCB contamination of fish recently has emerged as a major concern in the lower Rhone River basin. We measured PCB concentrations in Rhone sediment to evaluate the effects of PCB releases from major urban and industrial areas, sediment redistribution by large floods, and regulatory controls on PCB trends from 1970 to present. Profiles of PCBs (the sum of seven indicator PCB congeners) were reconstructed from sediment cores collected from an off-river rural reference site and from three depositional areas along the Rhone upstream and downstream from the city of Lyon, France. Core chronology was determined from radionuclide profiles and flood deposits. PCB concentrations increased progressively in the downstream direction, and reached a maximum concentration in 1991 of 281 μg/kg at the most downstream site. At the rural reference site and at the upstream Rhone site, PCB concentrations peaked in the 1970s (maximum concentration of 13 and 78 μg/kg, respectively) and have decreased exponentially since then. PCB concentrations in the middle and downstream cores were elevated into the early 1990s, decreased very rapidly until 2000, and since then have remained relatively stable. Congener profiles for three time windows (1965–80, 1986–93, and 2000–08) were similar in the three sediment cores from the Rhone and different from those at the rural reference site. The results indicate that permitted discharges from a hazardous-waste treatment facility upstream from Lyon might have contributed to high concentrations into the 1980-90s, but that industrial discharges from the greater Lyon area and tributaries to the Rhone near Lyon have had a greater contribution since the 1990s. There is little indication that PCB concentration in sediments downstream from Lyon will decrease over at least the short term.

  16. Temporal trends in the epidemiology of cervical cancer in South Africa (1994-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olorunfemi, Gbenga; Ndlovu, Ntombizodwa; Masukume, Gwinyai; Chikandiwa, Admire; Pisa, Pedro T; Singh, Elvira

    2018-05-22

    Cervical cancer (CC) is the leading cause of cancer death among female South Africans (SA). Improved access to reproductive health services following multi-ethnic democracy in 1994, HIV epidemic, and the initiation of CC population-based screening in early 2000's have influenced the epidemiology of CC in SA. We therefore evaluated the trends in CC age-standardized incidence (ASIR) (1994 - 2009) and mortality rates (ASMR) (2004 - 2012) using data from the South African National Cancer Registry and the Statistics South Africa, respectively. Five-year relative survival rates and average percent change (AAPC) stratified by ethnicity and age-groups was determined. The average annual CC cases and mortalities were 4,694 (75,099 cases/16years) and 2,789 (25,101 deaths/9years) respectively. The ASIR was 22.1/100,000 in 1994 and 23.3/100,000 in 2009, with an average annual decline in incidence of 0.9% per annum (AAPC = -0.9%, P-valueASMR decreased slightly by 0.6% per annum from 13.9/100,000 in 2004 to 13.1/100,000 in 2012 (AAPC = -0.6%, P-value ASMR was 5.8-fold higher in Blacks than in Whites. The 5-year survival rates were higher in Whites and Indians/Asians (60-80%) than in Blacks and Coloureds (40-50%). The incidence rate increased (AAPC range: 1.1% to 3.1%, P-value<0.001) among young women (25-34 years) from 2000 to 2009. Despite interventions, there were minimal changes in overall epidemiology of CC in SA but there were increased CC rates among young women and ethnic disparities in CC burden. A review of the CC national policy and directed CC prevention and treatment are required to positively impact the burden of CC in SA. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.

  17. Temporal trends and risks factors for antimicrobial resistant Enterobacteriaceae urinary isolates from outpatients in Guadeloupe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyomard-Rabenirina, Stéphanie; Malespine, Joyce; Ducat, Célia; Sadikalay, Syndia; Falord, Mélanie; Harrois, Dorothée; Richard, Vincent; Dozois, Charles; Breurec, Sébastien; Talarmin, Antoine

    2016-06-24

    Urinary tract infections are bacterial infections most commonly encountered in the community. The resistance rate of uropathogens to commonly prescribed antibiotics has increased worldwide but there are no published data concerning the resistance of strains isolated from community-acquired UTI in Guadeloupe. To assess the susceptibility patterns of Enterobacteriaceae strains isolated from outpatients in Guadeloupe we conducted a prospective study from December 2012 to May 2014 among outpatients consulting at private and public laboratories for urine analysis. Risk factors for E. coli resistance to amoxicillin, third-generation cephalosporin, and ciprofloxacin were also determined. To study the trends of E. coli resistance rates over the past 10 years, data on the susceptibility patterns of E. coli from 2003 to 2014 were also collected from three major laboratories for a retrospective study. During the prospective study, we isolated 1293 bacterial strains from the urine of outpatients presenting for urine analysis. The most commonly isolated bacteria were E. coli (57 %) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (15.5 %). Thirty seven per cent of the E. coli strains were resistant to amoxicillin. Resistance rates to third generation cephalosporin were low for E. coli and other Enterobacteriaceae (3.1 and 12.2 % respectively) and mostly due to the presence of an Extended Spectrum Beta-lactamase. Resistance to cotrimoxazole and ciprofloxacin was moderate (17.8 and 15.6 % respectively). However, the resistance rate of E. coli to ciprofloxacin has significantly increased during the last 10 years. Risk factors were consistent with previously reported data, especially for the increasing ciprofloxacin resistance with age. General practitioners in Guadeloupe need to be better informed to favor the prescription of fosfomycin-trometamol to reduce the risk of resistance to fluoroquinolones.

  18. Temporal trends in outpatient management of incident pulmonary embolism and associated mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klil-Drori, Adi J; Coulombe, Janie; Suissa, Samy; Hirsch, Andrew; Tagalakis, Vicky

    2018-01-01

    In clinical trial settings, outpatient management of pulmonary embolism (PE) is feasible and safe, but less is known on its use in routine care. We determined trends in outpatient management of PE and associated mortality in a large non-select patient population. All residents of Quebec, Canada with a first-ever work-up for suspected PE in the emergency department (ED) over 10years were included. Patients could transition to outpatient management and from unconfirmed to confirmed PE in a time-varying fashion. Comparing the years 2005-9 with 2000-4, we assessed the odds ratio (OR) for outpatient management, and relative risk (RR) for all-cause mortality, readmissions for PE, and major bleeding in 30days. We adjusted the RR for a mortality risk score. Of 15,217 patients included, 7583 were outpatients (7.5% confirmed PE) and 7634 were inpatients (60.6% confirmed PE). In all, 10.9% of patients with confirmed PE were outpatients, but outpatient management of confirmed PE was more likely in the latter study period (OR 1.73, 95%CI 1.44-2.09). Among outpatients with confirmed PE, mortality (RR 0.84, 95%CI 0.15-4.61) and readmission (RR 1.25, 95%CI 0.45-3.48) rates were stable, and only 3 major bleeding events were noted. Inpatients with confirmed PE had stable mortality rates (RR 0.95, 95%CI 0.72-1.24). Outpatient PE management increased over 10years while remaining fairly uncommon. Nevertheless, stable mortality and readmission rates indicate this practice is safe in routine care, and add to the growing evidence in support of outpatient PE management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Temporal trends and predictors of pelvic lymph node dissection in open or minimally invasive radical prostatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feifer, Andrew H; Elkin, Elena B; Lowrance, William T; Denton, Brian; Jacks, Lindsay; Yee, David S; Coleman, Jonathan A; Laudone, Vincent P; Scardino, Peter T; Eastham, James A

    2011-09-01

    Pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) is an important component of prostate cancer staging and treatment, especially for surgical patients who have high-risk tumor features. It is not clear how the shift from open radical prostatectomy (ORP) to minimally invasive radical prostatectomy (MIRP) has affected the use of PLND. The objectives of this study were to identify predictors of PLND and to assess the impact of surgical technique in a contemporary, population-based cohort. In Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry data linked with Medicare claims, the authors identified men who underwent ORP or MIRP for prostate cancer during 2003 to 2007. The impact of surgical approach on PLND was evaluated, and interactions were examined between surgical procedure, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), and Gleason score with the analysis controlled for patient and tumor characteristics. Of 6608 men who underwent ORP or MIRP, 70% (n = 4600) underwent PLND. The use of PLND declined over time both overall and within subgroups defined by procedure type. PLND was 5 times more likely in men who underwent ORP than in men who underwent MIRP when the analysis was controlled for patient and tumor characteristics. Elevated PSA and biopsy Gleason score, but not clinical stage, were associated with a greater odds of PLND in both the ORP group and the MIRP group. However, the magnitude of the association between these factors and PLND was significantly greater for patients in the ORP group. PLND was less common among men who underwent MIRP, independent of tumor risk factors. A decline in PLND rates was not fully explained by an increase in MIRP. The authors concluded that these trends may signal a surgical approach-dependent disparity in prostate cancer staging and therapy. Cancer 2011 © 2011 American Cancer Society.

  20. Temporal Trends in Airborne Dust Concentrations at a Large Chrysotile Mine and its Asbestos-enrichment Factories in the Russian Federation During 1951-2001

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schonfeld, Sara J; Kovalevskiy, Evgeny V; Feletto, Eleonora; Bukhtiyarov, Igor V; Kashanskiy, Sergey V; Moissonier, Monika; Straif, Kurt; McCormack, Valerie A; Schüz, Joachim; Kromhout, Hans

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: Mining and processing of chrysotile, an established carcinogen, has been undertaken in Asbest, Russian Federation since the late 1800s. Dust concentrations were routinely recorded at the open-pit mine and its asbestos-enrichment factories. We examined the temporal trends in these dust

  1. Identify temporal trend of air temperature and its impact on forest stream flow in Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley using wavelet analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Ying; Parajuli, Prem B; Li, Yide; Leininger, Theodor D; Feng, Gary

    2017-08-01

    Characterization of stream flow is essential to water resource management, water supply planning, environmental protection, and ecological restoration; while air temperature variation due to climate change can exacerbate stream flow and add instability to the flow. In this study, the wavelet analysis technique was employed to identify temporal trend of air temperature and its impact upon forest stream flows in Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMRAV). Four surface water monitoring stations, which locate near the headwater areas with very few land use disturbances and the long-term data records (60-90 years) in the LMRAV, were selected to obtain stream discharge and air temperature data. The wavelet analysis showed that air temperature had an increasing temporal trend around its mean value during the past several decades in the LMRAV, whereas stream flow had a decreasing temporal trend around its average value at the same time period in the same region. Results of this study demonstrated that the climate in the LMRAV did get warmer as time elapsed and the streams were drier as a result of warmer air temperature. This study further revealed that the best way to estimate the temporal trends of air temperature and stream flow was to perform the wavelet transformation around their mean values. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Temporal trends (1977-2007 and ethnic inequity in child mortality in rural villages of southern Guinea Bissau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boone Peter

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Guinea Bissau is one of the poorest countries in the world, with one of the highest under-5 mortality rate. Despite its importance for policy planning, data on child mortality are often not available or of poor quality in low-income countries like Guinea Bissau. Our aim in this study was to use the baseline survey to estimate child mortality in rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau for a 30 years period prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention. We aimed to investigate temporal trends with emphasis on historical events and the effect of ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. Methods A baseline survey was conducted prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention to estimate child mortality in 241 rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau between 1977 and 2007. Crude child mortality rates were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method from birth history of 7854 women. Cox regression models were used to investigate the effects of birth periods with emphasis on historical events, ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. Results High levels of child mortality were found at all ages under five with a significant reduction in child mortality over the time periods of birth except for 1997-2001. That period comprises the 1998/99 civil war interval, when child mortality was 1.5% higher than in the previous period. Children of Balanta ethnic group had higher hazard of dying under five years of age than children from other groups until 2001. Between 2002 and 2007, Fula children showed the highest mortality. Increasing walking distance to the nearest health centre increased the hazard, though not substantially, and polygyny had a negligible and statistically not significant effect on the hazard. Conclusion Child mortality is strongly associated with ethnicity and it should be considered in health policy planning. Child mortality, though considerably decreased during

  3. Determinants and Temporal Trends of Perfluoroalkyl Substances in Pregnant Women: The Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children’s Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng-Shan Tsai

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS are persistent bio-accumulative chemicals that impact the health of pregnant women and their children. PFAS derive from environmental and consumer products, which depend on human lifestyle, socioeconomic characteristics, and time variation. Here, we aimed to explore the temporal trends of PFAS in pregnant women and the characteristics related to maternal PFAS concentration. Our study is part of the Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children’s Health, the Hokkaido large-scale cohort that recruited pregnant women between 2003 and 2011. Blood samples were acquired from pregnant women during the third trimester to measure PFAS and cotinine concentrations. Maternal basic information was collected with a baseline structured questionnaire. Eleven PFAS were measured from 2123 samples with ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry. Eight PFAS were above 80% detection rate and were included in the final analysis. We used multivariable linear regression to analyze the association of pregnant women characteristics with the levels of eight PFAS. The temporal trend of PFAS was observed in two periods (August 2003 to January 2006 and February 2006 to July 2012. The concentration of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS significantly decreased from August 2003 to January 2006 and from February 2006 to July 2012. The concentrations of perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoDA, perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA, and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA increased significantly between August 2003 and January 2006, whereas they decreased significantly between February 2006 and July 2012. Women with pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI >25 kg/m2 had lower PFUnDA, PFDoDA, and PFTrDA levels than did those with normal BMI (18.5–24.9 kg/m2. Pregnant women, who were active smokers (cotinine > 11.49 ng/mL, had higher PFOS than the non-smokers (cotinine < 0.22 ng/mL. Lower levels of PFHxS, PFOS, PFOA

  4. Determinants and Temporal Trends of Perfluoroalkyl Substances in Pregnant Women: The Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children’s Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Meng-Shan; Miyashita, Chihiro; Itoh, Sachiko; Bamai, Yu Ait; Goudarzi, Houman; Okada, Emiko; Kashino, Ikuko; Matsuura, Hideyuki; Kishi, Reiko

    2018-01-01

    Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent bio-accumulative chemicals that impact the health of pregnant women and their children. PFAS derive from environmental and consumer products, which depend on human lifestyle, socioeconomic characteristics, and time variation. Here, we aimed to explore the temporal trends of PFAS in pregnant women and the characteristics related to maternal PFAS concentration. Our study is part of the Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children’s Health, the Hokkaido large-scale cohort that recruited pregnant women between 2003 and 2011. Blood samples were acquired from pregnant women during the third trimester to measure PFAS and cotinine concentrations. Maternal basic information was collected with a baseline structured questionnaire. Eleven PFAS were measured from 2123 samples with ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry. Eight PFAS were above 80% detection rate and were included in the final analysis. We used multivariable linear regression to analyze the association of pregnant women characteristics with the levels of eight PFAS. The temporal trend of PFAS was observed in two periods (August 2003 to January 2006 and February 2006 to July 2012). The concentration of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) significantly decreased from August 2003 to January 2006 and from February 2006 to July 2012. The concentrations of perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA), and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) increased significantly between August 2003 and January 2006, whereas they decreased significantly between February 2006 and July 2012. Women with pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) >25 kg/m2 had lower PFUnDA, PFDoDA, and PFTrDA levels than did those with normal BMI (18.5–24.9 kg/m2). Pregnant women, who were active smokers (cotinine > 11.49 ng/mL), had higher PFOS than the non-smokers (cotinine PFAS levels and annual income or maternal education. PFAS

  5. Determinants and Temporal Trends of Perfluoroalkyl Substances in Pregnant Women: The Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Meng-Shan; Miyashita, Chihiro; Araki, Atsuko; Itoh, Sachiko; Bamai, Yu Ait; Goudarzi, Houman; Okada, Emiko; Kashino, Ikuko; Matsuura, Hideyuki; Kishi, Reiko

    2018-05-14

    Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent bio-accumulative chemicals that impact the health of pregnant women and their children. PFAS derive from environmental and consumer products, which depend on human lifestyle, socioeconomic characteristics, and time variation. Here, we aimed to explore the temporal trends of PFAS in pregnant women and the characteristics related to maternal PFAS concentration. Our study is part of the Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children's Health, the Hokkaido large-scale cohort that recruited pregnant women between 2003 and 2011. Blood samples were acquired from pregnant women during the third trimester to measure PFAS and cotinine concentrations. Maternal basic information was collected with a baseline structured questionnaire. Eleven PFAS were measured from 2123 samples with ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry. Eight PFAS were above 80% detection rate and were included in the final analysis. We used multivariable linear regression to analyze the association of pregnant women characteristics with the levels of eight PFAS. The temporal trend of PFAS was observed in two periods (August 2003 to January 2006 and February 2006 to July 2012). The concentration of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) significantly decreased from August 2003 to January 2006 and from February 2006 to July 2012. The concentrations of perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA), and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) increased significantly between August 2003 and January 2006, whereas they decreased significantly between February 2006 and July 2012. Women with pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) >25 kg/m² had lower PFUnDA, PFDoDA, and PFTrDA levels than did those with normal BMI (18.5⁻24.9 kg/m²). Pregnant women, who were active smokers (cotinine > 11.49 ng/mL), had higher PFOS than the non-smokers (cotinine PFAS levels and annual income or maternal education. PFAS

  6. Sex-specific incidence and temporal trends in solid tumours in young people from Northern England, 1968–2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnanti, Brooke L; Dorak, M Tevfik; Parker, Louise; Craft, Alan W; James, Peter W; McNally, Richard JQ

    2008-01-01

    This study examined sex-specific patterns and temporal trends in the incidence of solid tumours in the Northern Region of England from 1968 to 2005. This updates earlier analyses from the region where sex was not considered in depth. Sex-specific analyses were carried out to determine whether sex differences might provide clues to aetiology. Details of 3576 cases, aged 0–24 years, were obtained from a specialist population-based cancer registry. There were 1843 males (886 aged 0–14 years and 957 aged 15–24 years) and 1733 females (791 aged 0–14 years and 942 aged 15–24 years). Age-standardized incidence rates (per million population) were calculated. Linear regression was used to analyze temporal trends in incidence and annual percentage changes were estimated. Analyses were stratified by sex and by age-group. There were marked differences in incidence patterns and trends between males and females and also between age-groups. For males central nervous system (CNS) tumours formed the largest proportion of under-15 cases and germ cell tumours was the largest group in the 15–24's, whilst for females CNS tumours dominated in the under-15's and carcinomas in the older group. For 0–14 year olds there were male-specific increases in the incidence of rhabdomyosarcoma (2.4% per annum; 95% CI: 0.2%–4.5%) and non-melanotic skin cancer (9.6%; 95% CI: 0.0%–19.2%) and female-specific increases for sympathetic nervous system tumours (2.2%; 95% CI: 0.4%–3.9%), gonadal germ cell tumours (8.6%; 95% CI: 4.3%–12.9%) and non-gonadal germ cell tumours (5.4%; 95% CI: 2.8%–7.9%). For 15–24 year olds, there were male-specific increases in gonadal germ cell tumours (1.9%; 95% CI: 0.3%–3.4%), non-gonadal germ cell tumours (4.4%; 95% CI: 1.1%–7.7%) and non-melanotic skin cancer (4.7%; 95% CI: 0.5%–8.9%) and female-specific increases for osteosarcoma (3.5%; 95% CI: 0.5%–6.5%), thyroid cancer (2.8%; 95% CI: 0.1%–5.6%) and melanoma (4.6%; 95% CI: 2

  7. Temporal trends in disability evaluation and retirement in the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps: 2005-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubata, Marlene E; Packnett, Elizabeth R; Cowan, David N

    2014-01-01

    Surveillance of trends in disability is necessary to determine the burden of disability on the U.S. military, the most common types of disability conditions, and the prevalence of combat exposures in the disability population. Previous studies of disability in the U.S. military have focused on a particular service or condition rather than examining the epidemiology of disability in the military overall. This study's objective is to describe rates of disability evaluation and retirement in U.S. Army, Navy, and Marine Corps. A cross-sectional study of 126,170 service members evaluated for disability discharge from the U.S. military in fiscal years 2005-2011 was conducted. Crude and standardized rates of disability evaluation and retirement were calculated per 10,000 service members by year of disability, demographic characteristics, and type of disability evaluation or retirement. Temporal trends in the prevalence of combat-related disability in the disability evaluated and retired population were also examined. Rates of disability evaluation and retirement were highest among female, enlisted, and active duty service members. Overall rates of disability evaluation significantly decreased, while rates of disability retirement increased. Rates of psychiatric disability evaluation and retirement significantly increased in all services during the same time period from 2005 to 2011. Combat-related disability evaluations and retirements have substantially increased in all services particularly among psychiatric disability cases. Psychiatric disability, combat-related disability, and disability retirement continue to increase in the military, despite observed decreases in the rates of disability the Department of Defense since 2005. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD) Flame Retardant in Top Predator Fish across Canada and its 36-Year Temporal Trends for Lake Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Guanyong; McGoldrick, Daryl; Clark, Mandi G; Evans, Marlene; Gledhill, Melissa; Garron, Christine; Armellin, Alain; Backus, Sean; Letcher, Robert J

    2018-05-08

    Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD) is a high concern environmental pollutant due to its persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic properties. The spatial distribution of HBCDD was investigated in top predator fish (Lake Trout, Walleye or Brook Trout) collected in 2013 (n=165) from nineteen sampling sites and in 2015 (n=145) from twenty sites across Canada. HBCDD was measurable in at least one sample at each sampling site regardless of sampling year with the exception of Walleye from the south basin of Lake Winnipeg (2013). Sampling sites in or near the Laurentian Great Lakes had greater HBCDD concentrations compared to locations to the west or east. The greatest mean HBCDD concentration was 72.6 ng/g lw in fish from Lake Huron-Goderich (2015). Regardless of the sampling sites, α-HBCDD was the dominant congener followed by γ-HBCDD, whereas β-HBCDD was barely detectable. In fish from the same waterbody there were comparable α/γ isomer concentration ratios. The greatest ratio was 20.8 in fish from Lake Ontario, whereas the lowest ratio was 6.3 for fish from Lac Memphrémagog (Québec) likely related to more recent emissions of technical HBCDD mixture. Temporal trends of HBCDD in Lake Trout from Lake Ontario showed a significant decreasing trend for γ-HBCDD with a half-life estimate of 10 years over a 36-year period (1979-2015), and for -HBCDD with a half-life of 11 years over the years of 2008 to 2015. The proportion of α-HBCDD to ΣHBCDD increased significantly during 1979 to 2015. The present study provided novel information on the isomer-specific HBCDDs in Canada freshwater fish.

  9. Change and fragmentation trends of Zhanjiang mangrove forests in southern China using multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1977-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, M. S.; Mao, L. J.; Shen, W. J.; Liu, S. Q.; Wei, A. S.

    2013-09-01

    Mangrove forests, which are found in saline coastal environments around the tropical and subtropical latitudes, are among the most productive terrestrial ecosystems in the world and provide valuable ecological and societal goods and services. The objective of this work was to characterize the spatio-temporal changes in mangrove distribution and fragmentation patterns in the Zhanjiang National Mangrove Forest Nature Reserve, Guangdong province of Southern China, from 1977 through 2010. In addition, a major goal was to assess the socio-economic drivers contributing to the chronic changes taking place within and around the mangrove reserve. Land use and land cover data sets were generated for the reserve for multiple years via unsupervised classification using Landsat time series images. Mangrove fragmentation patterns were then assessed with a fragmentation model. Results revealed that the mangrove spatial extent decreased sharply during the period from 1977 to 1991 due to deforestation caused by diverse development programs, particularly shrimp farming. Afterwards, there was a continuous increase in mangrove extent from 1991 to 2010 due to afforestation and conservation efforts. The mangrove fragmentation trends depicted by the fragmentation model had a high degree of correlation with the observed areal changes. Additionally, the recorded dynamics of the local biodiversity (mainly birds) were consistent with the mangrove ecosystem fragmentation trends over time, and different fragmentation components, including interior, perforated and edge, had distinct impacts on the local mangrove-dependent biodiversity. The most effective way to protect and expand the current mangroves include the following: (1) establishment of mangrove natural reserves, (2) forceful implementation of regulations, (3) establishment of educational programs related to mangrove management, (4) deepening international exchanges and cooperation and (5) increasing the transparency of the project

  10. Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery independent surveys: A case study based on Gillnets Set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

    2009-01-01

    Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

  11. Temporal trend of green space coverage in China and its relationship with urbanization over the last two decades

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Juanjuan, E-mail: jjzhao@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Chen, Shengbin, E-mail: chainpin@yahoo.com.cn [Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Environmental Protection, 8 Jiangwangmiao Street, Nanjing 210042 (China); Jiang, Bo, E-mail: jbshuibao415@126.com [State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 2871, Beijing 100085 (China); Ren, Yin, E-mail: yren@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Wang, Hua, E-mail: wanghuaphd@gmail.com [Institute of Forestry and Pomology, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Ruiwangfen Jia 12 Xiangshan, Beijing 100093 (China); Vause, Jonathan, E-mail: jonathanvause@hotmail.com [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Yu, Haidong, E-mail: hoste@163.com [Xiamen Huaxia Vocational College, Wenjiaoqu Jimei District, Xiamen 361024 (China)

    2013-01-01

    Irrespective of which side is taken in the densification-sprawl debate, insights into the relationship between urban green space coverage and urbanization have been recognized as essential for guiding sustainable urban development. However, knowledge of the relationships between socio-economic variables of urbanization and long-term green space change is still limited. In this paper, using simple regression, hierarchical partitioning and multi-regression, the temporal trend in green space coverage and its relationship with urbanization were investigated using data from 286 cities between 1989 and 2009, covering all provinces in mainland China with the exception of Tibet. We found that: [1] average green space coverage of cities investigated increased steadily from 17.0% in 1989 to 37.3% in 2009; [2] cities with higher recent green space coverage also had relatively higher green space coverage historically; [3] cities in the same region exhibited similar long-term trends in green space coverage; [4] eight of the nine variables characterizing urbanization showed a significant positive linear relationship with green space coverage, with 'per capita GDP' having the highest independent contribution (24.2%); [5] among the climatic and geographic factors investigated, only mean elevation showed a significant effect; and [6] using the seven largest contributing individual factors, a linear model to predict variance in green space coverage was constructed. Here, we demonstrated that green space coverage in built-up areas tended to reflect the effects of urbanization rather than those of climatic or geographic factors. Quantification of the urbanization effects and the characteristics of green space development in China may provide a valuable reference for research into the processes of urban sprawl and its relationship with green space change. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The green space coverage in Chinese cities increased steadily from 1991 to

  12. Temporal trend of green space coverage in China and its relationship with urbanization over the last two decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Juanjuan; Chen, Shengbin; Jiang, Bo; Ren, Yin; Wang, Hua; Vause, Jonathan; Yu, Haidong

    2013-01-01

    Irrespective of which side is taken in the densification-sprawl debate, insights into the relationship between urban green space coverage and urbanization have been recognized as essential for guiding sustainable urban development. However, knowledge of the relationships between socio-economic variables of urbanization and long-term green space change is still limited. In this paper, using simple regression, hierarchical partitioning and multi-regression, the temporal trend in green space coverage and its relationship with urbanization were investigated using data from 286 cities between 1989 and 2009, covering all provinces in mainland China with the exception of Tibet. We found that: [1] average green space coverage of cities investigated increased steadily from 17.0% in 1989 to 37.3% in 2009; [2] cities with higher recent green space coverage also had relatively higher green space coverage historically; [3] cities in the same region exhibited similar long-term trends in green space coverage; [4] eight of the nine variables characterizing urbanization showed a significant positive linear relationship with green space coverage, with ‘per capita GDP’ having the highest independent contribution (24.2%); [5] among the climatic and geographic factors investigated, only mean elevation showed a significant effect; and [6] using the seven largest contributing individual factors, a linear model to predict variance in green space coverage was constructed. Here, we demonstrated that green space coverage in built-up areas tended to reflect the effects of urbanization rather than those of climatic or geographic factors. Quantification of the urbanization effects and the characteristics of green space development in China may provide a valuable reference for research into the processes of urban sprawl and its relationship with green space change. -- Highlights: ► The green space coverage in Chinese cities increased steadily from 1991 to 2009. ► Cities in the same

  13. Temporal Trends in Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Associated Acute Cerebrovascular Accident (From the 1998–2008 Nationwide Inpatient Sample [NIS] Database)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shivaraju, Anupama; Yu, Changhong; Kattan, Michael W.; Xie, Hui; Shroff, Adhir R.; Vidovich, Mladen I.

    2014-01-01

    Acute cerebrovascular accident (CVA) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and coronary artery disease (CAD) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 1998 to 2008 was utilized to identify 1,552,602 PCIs performed for ACS and CAD. We assessed temporal trends in the incidence, predictors and prognostic impact of CVA in a broad range of patients undergoing PCI. The overall incidence of CVA was 0.56% (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.55%–0.57%). The incidence of CVA remained unchanged over the study period (adjusted p for trend = 0.2271). The overall mortality in the CVA group was 10.76% (95% CI, 10.1%–11.4%). The adjusted odds ratio (OR) of CVA for in-hospital mortality was 7.74 (95% CI, 7.00–8.57; p<0.0001); this remained high but decreased over the study period (adjusted p for trend <0.0001). Independent predictors of CVA included older age (OR, 1.03, 95% CI, 1.02–1.03; p<0.0001), disorder of lipid metabolism (OR, 1.31, 95% CI, 1.24–1.38; p<0.001), history of tobacco use (OR, 1.21, 95% CI, 1.10–1.34; p=0.0002), coronary atherosclerosis (OR 1.56, 95% CI, 1.43–1.71; p<0.0001), and IABP use (OR 1.39, 95% CI, 1.09–1.77; p=0.0073). A nomogram for predicting the probability of CVA achieved a concordance index of 0.73 and was well calibrated. In conclusion, the incidence of CVA associated with PCI has remained unchanged from 1998–2008 in face of improved equipment, techniques and adjunctive pharmacology. The risk of CVA associated in-hospital mortality is high; however, this risk has declined over the study period. PMID:24952927

  14. The drinking water contamination crisis in Flint: Modeling temporal trends of lead level since returning to Detroit water system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goovaerts, Pierre

    2017-03-01

    Since Flint returned to its pre-crisis source of drinking water close to 25,000 water samples have been collected and tested for lead and copper in >10,000 residences. This paper presents the first analysis and time trend modeling of lead data, providing new insights about the impact of this intervention. The analysis started with geocoding all water lead levels (WLL) measured during an 11-month period following the return to the Detroit water supply. Each data was allocated to the corresponding tax parcel unit and linked to secondary datasets, such as the composition of service lines, year built, or census tract poverty level. Only data collected on residential parcels within the City limits were used in the analysis. One key feature of Flint data is their collection through two different sampling initiatives: (i) voluntary or homeowner-driven sampling whereby concerned citizens decided to acquire a testing kit and conduct sampling on their own (non-sentinel sites), and (ii) State-controlled sampling where data were collected bi-weekly at selected sites after training of residents by technical teams (sentinel sites). Temporal trends modeled from these two datasets were found to be statistically different with fewer sentinel data exceeding WLL thresholds ranging from 10 to 50μg/L. Even after adjusting for housing characteristics the odds ratio (OR) of measuring WLL above 15μg/L at non-sentinel sites is significantly >1 (OR=1.480) and it increases with the threshold (OR=2.055 for 50μg/L). Joinpoint regression showed that the city-wide percentage of WLL data above 15μg/L displayed four successive trends since the return to Detroit Water System. Despite the recent improvement in water quality, the culprit for differences between sampling programs needs to be identified as it impacts exposure assessment and might influence whether there is compliance or not with the Lead and Copper Rule. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Brominated flame retardants in mangrove sediments of the Pearl River Estuary, South China: spatial distribution, temporal trend and mass inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zai-Wang; Sun, Yu-Xin; Sun, Kai-Feng; Xu, Xiang-Rong; Yu, Shen; Zheng, Tian-Ling; Luo, Xiao-Jun; Tian, Yun; Hu, Yong-Xia; Diao, Zeng-Hui; Mai, Bi-Xian

    2015-03-01

    Sediments were collected from three mangrove wetlands in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) of South China to investigate spatial and temporal distributions of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) and 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE). Concentrations of ΣPBDEs, DBDPE and BTBPE in mangrove sediments of the PRE ranged from 1.25-206, 0.364-34.9, and not detected-0.794 ng g(-1) dry weight, respectively. The highest concentrations of ΣPBDEs, DBDPE and BTBPE were found at the mangrove wetland from Shenzhen, followed by Zhuhai and Guangzhou, showing the dependence on the proximity to urban areas. PBDEs were the predominant brominated flame retardants (BFRs) in mangrove sediments. The concentrations of ΣPBDEs, DBDPE and BTBPE in sediment cores showed an increasing trend from the bottom to top layers, reflecting the increasing usage of these BFRs. The inventories of ΣPBDEs, DBDPE and BTBPE in mangrove sediments were 1962, 245, and 4.10 ng cm(-2), respectively. This is the first study to report the occurrence of DBDPE and BTBPE in mangrove ecosystems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Sampling designs for contaminant temporal trend analyses using sedentary species exemplified by the snails Bellamya aeruginosa and Viviparus viviparus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Ge; Danielsson, Sara; Dahlberg, Anna-Karin; Zhou, Yihui; Qiu, Yanling; Nyberg, Elisabeth; Bignert, Anders

    2017-10-01

    Environmental monitoring typically assumes samples and sampling activities to be representative of the population being studied. Given a limited budget, an appropriate sampling strategy is essential to support detecting temporal trends of contaminants. In the present study, based on real chemical analysis data on polybrominated diphenyl ethers in snails collected from five subsites in Tianmu Lake, computer simulation is performed to evaluate three sampling strategies by the estimation of required sample size, to reach a detection of an annual change of 5% with a statistical power of 80% and 90% with a significant level of 5%. The results showed that sampling from an arbitrarily selected sampling spot is the worst strategy, requiring much more individual analyses to achieve the above mentioned criteria compared with the other two approaches. A fixed sampling site requires the lowest sample size but may not be representative for the intended study object e.g. a lake and is also sensitive to changes of that particular sampling site. In contrast, sampling at multiple sites along the shore each year, and using pooled samples when the cost to collect and prepare individual specimens are much lower than the cost for chemical analysis, would be the most robust and cost efficient strategy in the long run. Using statistical power as criterion, the results demonstrated quantitatively the consequences of various sampling strategies, and could guide users with respect of required sample sizes depending on sampling design for long term monitoring programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Validation of dentine deposition rates in beluga whales by interspecies cross dating of temporal δ13C trends in teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cory JD Matthews

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Isotopic time series from sequentially sampled growth layer groups (GLGs in marine mammal teeth can be combined to build chronologies allowing assessment of isotopic variation in marine ecosystems. Synchronous recording of baseline isotopic variation across dentinal GLGs of species with temporal and spatial overlap in foraging offers a unique opportunity for validation of marine mammal age estimation procedures through calibration of GLG deposition rates in one species against another whose GLG deposition has been independently determined. In this study, we compare trends in stable carbon isotope ratios (d13C across dentinal GLGs of three eastern Canadian Arctic (ECA beluga (Delphinapterus leucas populations through the 1960s-2000s with a d13C time series measured across dentinal GLGs of ECA/Northwest Atlantic killer whales (Orcinus orca from 1944-1999. We use confirmed annual GLG deposition in killer whales as a means to assess beluga GLG deposition, and show linear d13C declines across chronologies of both species were statistically indistinguishable when based on annual GLG deposition in beluga whales, but differed when based on biannual deposition. We suggest d13C declines reflect the oceanic 13C Suess effect, and provide additional support for annual GLG deposition in beluga whales by comparing rates of d13C declines across beluga GLGs with published annual d13C declines attributed to the oceanic 13C Suess effect in the North Atlantic.

  18. Temporal trend studies on tetra- and pentabrominated diphenyl ethers and hexabromocyclododecane in guillemot egg from the Baltic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellström, Ulla; Bignert, Anders; Kierkegaard, Amelie; Häggberg, Lisbeth; de Wit, Cynthia A; Olsson, Mats; Jansson, Bo

    2003-12-15

    Guillemot eggs from the Baltic Sea, sampled between 1969 and 2001, were analyzed for tetra- and pentabromodiphenyl ethers (2,2',4,4'-tetraBDE (BDE-47), 2,2',4,4',5-pentaBDE (BDE-99), and 2,2',4,4',6-pentaBDE (BDE-100)), and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). This temporal trend study indicates that the concentrations of the polybrominated diphenyl ether compounds increased from the 1970s to the 1980s, peaking around the mid- to the late-1980s. These peaks are then followed by a rapid decrease in concentrations during the rest of the study period, with the concentrations of the major BDE congener below 100 ng/g lipid weight at the end of the period. This corresponds to less than 10% of its peak values. The concentrations of HBCD show a different pattern over time. After a peak in the middle of the 1970s followed by a decrease, the concentrations increased during the latter part of the 1980s. During the recent 10-yr period no significant change has occurred, and the annual mean concentrations are more or less stable at a higher level as compared to the beginning of the study period.

  19. Temporal-spatial trends in heavy metal contents in sediment-derived soils along the Sea Scheldt river (Belgium)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandecasteele, B.; Vos, B. de; Tack, F.M.G.

    2003-01-01

    The alluvial plain upstream in the Sea Scheldt was more affected by upland disposal of polluted sediments. - The aim of this study was to survey the alluvial plains of the Sea Scheldt river in Belgium for the presence of old sediment-derived soils, and to appraise the heavy metal contamination at these sites. Historically, sediments of periodical dredging operations have been disposed in the alluvial plain without concern for the potential presence of contaminants. Up to 96% of the areas that were affected by sediment disposal (ca. 120 ha) was found to be polluted by at least one of the metals Cd, Cr, Zn or Pb. Concentrations of Cd, Cr and Zn were, in 10% of the cases, higher than 14, 1400 and 2200 mg/kg DM, respectively. Based on the Flemish decree on soil sanitation, Cu and Ni concentrations were of less environmental concern on any site. The pollution in the Sea Scheldt alluvial plain nevertheless is lower than for the Upper Scheldt alluvial plain. The sediment-derived soils in the most upstream part near Ghent were used for disposal of sediments from dredging operations elsewhere. Metal concentrations were explored and both spatial and temporal trend were analysed. The pollution levels encountered warrant caution as most of the soils affected by historical dredged sediment disposal are currently in use for pasture

  20. Temporal trends in 137Cs concentrations in the bark, sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood of four tree species in Japanese forests from 2011 to 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohashi, Shinta; Kuroda, Katsushi; Takano, Tsutomu; Suzuki, Youki; Fujiwara, Takeshi; Abe, Hisashi; Kagawa, Akira; Sugiyama, Masaki; Kubojima, Yoshitaka; Zhang, Chunhua; Yamamoto, Koichi

    2017-11-01

    To understand the changes in radiocesium ( 137 Cs) concentrations in stem woods after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, we investigated 137 Cs concentrations in the bark, sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood of four major tree species at multiple sites with different levels of radiocesium deposition from the FDNPP accident since 2011 (since 2012 at some sites): Japanese cedar at four sites, hinoki cypress and Japanese konara oak at two sites, and Japanese red pine at one site. Our previous report on 137 Cs concentrations in bark and whole wood samples collected from 2011 to 2015 suggested that temporal variations were different among sites even within the same species. In the present study, we provided data on bark and whole wood samples in 2016 and separately measured 137 Cs concentrations in sapwood and heartwood samples from 2011 to 2016; we further discussed temporal trends in 137 Cs concentrations in each part of tree stems, particularly those in 137 Cs distributions between sapwood and heartwood, in relation to their species and site dependencies. Temporal trends in bark and whole wood samples collected from 2011 to 2016 were consistent with those reported in samples collected from 2011 to 2015. Temporal variations in 137 Cs concentrations in barks showed either a decreasing trend or no clear trend, implying that 137 Cs deposition in barks is inhomogeneous and that decontamination is relatively slow in some cases. Temporal trends in 137 Cs concentrations in sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood were different among species and also among sites within the same species. Relatively common trends within the same species, which were increasing, were observed in cedar heartwood, and in oak sapwood and whole wood. On the other hand, the ratio of 137 Cs concentration in heartwood to that in sapwood (fresh weight basis) was commonly increased to more than 2 in cedar, although distinct temporal trends were not found in the other species, for

  1. Drivers for spatial, temporal and long-term trends in atmospheric ammonia and ammonium in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. S. Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A unique long-term dataset from the UK National Ammonia Monitoring Network (NAMN is used here to assess spatial, seasonal and long-term variability in atmospheric ammonia (NH3: 1998–2014 and particulate ammonium (NH4+: 1999–2014 across the UK. Extensive spatial heterogeneity in NH3 concentrations is observed, with lowest annual mean concentrations at remote sites (< 0.2 µg m−3 and highest in the areas with intensive agriculture (up to 22 µg m−3, while NH4+ concentrations show less spatial variability (e.g. range of 0.14 to 1.8 µg m−3 annual mean in 2005. Temporally, NH3 concentrations are influenced by environmental conditions and local emission sources. In particular, peak NH3 concentrations are observed in summer at background sites (defined by 5 km grid average NH3 emissions < 1 kg N ha−1 yr−1 and in areas dominated by sheep farming, driven by increased volatilization of NH3 in warmer summer temperatures. In areas where cattle, pig and poultry farming is dominant, the largest NH3 concentrations are in spring and autumn, matching periods of manure application to fields. By contrast, peak concentrations of NH4+ aerosol occur in spring, associated with long-range transboundary sources. An estimated decrease in NH3 emissions by 16 % between 1998 and 2014 was reported by the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Annually averaged NH3 data from NAMN sites operational over the same period (n =  59 show an indicative downward trend, although the reduction in NH3 concentrations is smaller and non-significant: Mann–Kendall (MK, −6.3 %; linear regression (LR, −3.1 %. In areas dominated by pig and poultry farming, a significant reduction in NH3 concentrations between 1998 and 2014 (MK: −22 %; LR: −21 %, annually averaged NH3 is consistent with, but not as large as the decrease in estimated NH3 emissions from this sector over the same period (−39 %. By contrast, in cattle

  2. An evaluation of teeth of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from Greenland as a matrix to monitor spatial and temporal trends of mercury and stable isotopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubail, Aurore, E-mail: aaubail@yahoo.fr [National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Littoral, Environnement et Societes (LIENSs), UMR 6250, CNRS-Universite de La Rochelle, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, F-17000 La Rochelle (France); Dietz, Rune; Riget, Frank [National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Simon-Bouhet, Benoit; Caurant, Florence [Littoral, Environnement et Societes (LIENSs), UMR 6250, CNRS-Universite de La Rochelle, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, F-17000 La Rochelle (France)

    2010-10-01

    Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were measured in teeth of ringed seals from Qeqertarsuaq, central West Greenland (1982 to 2006) and Ittoqqortoormiit, central East Greenland (1986 to 2006). Stable isotopic ratios of carbon ({sup 13}C/{sup 12}C) and nitrogen ({sup 15}N/{sup 14}N) were determined as well to provide insights into diet variations between regions or through time. Mercury concentrations decreased the first years of life of the animals suggesting that Hg had been transferred from the mother to the foetus and newborn. The Hg concentrations in teeth were significantly lesser in ringed seals from central West Greenland compared to those from central East Greenland. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic values measured in the animals differed also significantly between the two regions. Increasing temporal trends of dental Hg concentrations between 1994 and 2006 were observed in ringed seals from both central West Greenland and central East Greenland. These increases were attributed to global changes in environmental Hg levels since no temporal trends in {delta}{sup 15}N values were found to support the hypothesis of a diet shift over time. Furthermore, a decreasing temporal trend in {delta}{sup 13}C values was observed in the teeth of seals from central East Greenland, and explained by a likely change over time towards more pelagic feeding habits; alternatively, the so-known Seuss effect was thought to be responsible for this decrease. Finally, it was concluded that the tooth of ringed seal was a good monitoring tissue to assess Hg trends.

  3. A study on temporal trends and estimates of fate of Bisphenol A in agricultural soils after sewage sludge amendment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Zulin, E-mail: zulin.zhang@hutton.ac.uk [The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH (United Kingdom); Le Velly, Morgane [The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH (United Kingdom); Robert Gordon University, Institute for Innovation Design and Sustainability (IDEAS), Riverside East, Garthdee, Aberdeen AB10 7GJ (United Kingdom); Rhind, Stewart M.; Kyle, Carol E.; Hough, Rupert L. [The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH (United Kingdom); Duff, Elizabeth I. [Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH (United Kingdom); McKenzie, Craig [Robert Gordon University, Institute for Innovation Design and Sustainability (IDEAS), Riverside East, Garthdee, Aberdeen AB10 7GJ (United Kingdom)

    2015-05-15

    Temporal concentration trends of BPA in soils were investigated following sewage sludge application to pasture (study 1: short term sludge application; study 2: long term multiple applications over 13 years). The background levels of BPA in control soils were similar, ranging between 0.67–10.57 ng g{sup −1} (mean: 3.02 ng g{sup −1}) and 0.51–6.58 ng g{sup −1} (mean: 3.22 ng g{sup −1}) for studies 1 and 2, respectively. Concentrations in both treated and control plots increased over the earlier sampling times of the study to a maximum and then decreased over later sampling times, suggesting other sources of BPA to both the treated and control soils over the study period. In study 1 there was a significant treatment effect of sludge application in the autumn (p = 0.002) although no significant difference was observed between treatment and control soils in the spring. In study 2 treated soils contained considerably higher BPA concentrations than controls ranging between 12.89–167.9 ng g{sup −1} (mean: 63.15 ng g{sup −1}). This and earlier studies indicate the long-term accumulation of multiple contaminants by multiple sewage sludge applications over a prolonged period although the effects of the presence of such contaminant mixtures have not yet been elucidated. Fugacity modelling was undertaken to estimate partitioning of Bisphenol A (soil plus sewage: pore water: soil air partitioning) and potential uptake into a range of food crops. While Bisphenol A sorbs strongly to the sewage-amended soil, 4% by mass was predicted to enter soil pore water resulting in significant uptake by crops particularly leafy vegetables (3.12–75.5 ng g{sup −1}), but also for root crops (1.28–31.0 ng g{sup −1}) with much lower uptake into cereal grains (0.62–15.0 ng g{sup −1}). This work forms part of a larger programme of research aimed at assessing the risks associated with the long-term application of sewage sludge to agricultural soils. - Highlights:

  4. Comparison of spatial and temporal trends of methoxylated PBDEs, PBDEs, and hexabromocyclododecane in herring along the Swedish coast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asplund, L.; Nylund, K. [ITM, Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Bignert, A. [Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2004-09-15

    Some brominated flame retardants, for example poly brominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) have been identified as ubiquitous environmental contaminants. The use of the technical PentaBDE product in the European Union has been drastically reduced in the last years and is banned from 2004, while another brominated flame retardant, hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), continues to be used. In addition to the commercial BFR products, methoxylated PBDEs (MeO-PBDEs) have been identified in biota in the aquatic environment. The origin of the MeO-PBDEs is under discussion. To our knowledge, neither OH-PBDEs nor MeO-PBDEs are commercially produced, nor have they been reported as impurities in brominated technical products or formed as byproducts in any industrial process. However, MeO-PBDEs has been reported to be natural products formed in the marine environment. As regards MeO-PBDEs detected in Baltic fish several factors points in the direction of a natural origin. On the other hand, certain MeO-PBDEs detected in environmental samples could also be metabolites/environmental transformation products of PBDEs. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal trends of the flame retardants in biota can be very useful in identifying sources of emission to the environment and in evaluating the impacts of voluntary restrictions / bans (PBDEs) and ongoing use (HBCD) on environmental contamination. In addition, this knowledge could provide valuable help in identifying the origin of the MeO-PBDEs. To this end, the Swedish Environmental Monitoring Programme on Contaminants in Biota (SEMPC) has incorporated these 3 substance groups into its monitoring of organic contaminants in herring (Clupea harengus). In this contribution we report on the results of the first 4 years.

  5. Temporal Trends of Reperfusion Strategies and Hospital Mortality for Patients With STEMI in Percutaneous Coronary Intervention-Capable Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Dat T; Welsh, Robert C; Ohinmaa, Arto; Thanh, Nguyen X; Kaul, Padma

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends and provincial variations in reperfusion strategies and in-hospital mortality among patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) at hospitals in Canada capable of performing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We included patients aged ≥ 20 years who were hospitalized between fiscal years 2009 and 2013 in all provinces except Quebec. We categorized patients as receiving fibrinolysis (lysis), primary PCI (pPCI), or no reperfusion. Patients undergoing lysis were further categorized as (1) lysis + PCI ≤ 90 minutes, (2) lysis + PCI > 90 minutes, and (3) lysis only. Patients undergoing pPCI were further categorized as (1) pPCI ≤ 90 minutes and (2) pPCI > 90 minutes. We used logistic regression to examine the baseline-adjusted association between reperfusion strategy and in-hospital mortality. Among 44,650 STEMI episodes in 44,373 patients, 66.3% received pPCI (annual increase of 7.8%; P 90 minutes (adjusted odds ratio of 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.55 compared with pPCI ≤ 90 minutes). The use of pPCI in STEMI has increased significantly in Canada; however, significant interprovincial variation remains. Changes in reperfusion strategies do not appear to have had an impact on in-hospital mortality rates. Patients who underwent lysis followed by PCI in a systematic fashion had the lowest mortality. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Temporal trends and gender differentials in causes of childhood deaths at Ballabgarh, India - Need for revisiting child survival strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishnan Anand

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Relating Information on causes of deaths to implementation of health interventions provides vital information for program planning and evaluation. This paper from Ballabgarh Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS site in north India looks at temporal trends and gender differentials in the causes of death among under-five children. Methods Data on causes of death for 1972-74, 1982-84, 1992-94, 2002-04 were taken from existing HDSS publications and database. Physicians’ assigned causes of death were based on narratives by lay health worker till 1994 and later by verbal autopsy. Cause Specific Mortality Fractions (CSMF and Cause Specific Mortality Rates (CSMR per 1000 live births were calculated for neonatal ( Results The CSMF of prematurity and sepsis was 32% and 17.6% during neonatal period in 2002-04. The share of infections in all childhood deaths decreased from 55.2% in 1972-74 to 43.6% in 2002-04. All major causes of mortality (malnutrition, diarrhea and acute lower respiratory infection except injuries showed a steep decline among children and seem to have plateued in last decade. Most of disease specific public health interventions were launched in mid eighties. . Girls reported significantly higher mortality rates for prematurity (RR 1.52; 95% CI 1.01-2.29; diarrhea (2.29; 1.59 – 3.29, and malnutrition (3.37; 2.05 – 5.53. Conclusions The findings of the study point out to the need to move away from disease-specific to a comprehensive approach and to address gender inequity in child survival through socio-behavioural approaches.

  7. Temporal trends in marijuana attitudes, availability and use in Colorado compared to non-medical marijuana states: 2003-11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuermeyer, Joseph; Salomonsen-Sautel, Stacy; Price, Rumi Kato; Balan, Sundari; Thurstone, Christian; Min, Sung-Joon; Sakai, Joseph T

    2014-07-01

    In 2009, policy changes were accompanied by a rapid increase in the number of medical marijuana cardholders in Colorado. Little published epidemiological work has tracked changes in the state around this time. Using the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, we tested for temporal changes in marijuana attitudes and marijuana-use-related outcomes in Colorado (2003-11) and differences within-year between Colorado and thirty-four non-medical-marijuana states (NMMS). Using regression analyses, we further tested whether patterns seen in Colorado prior to (2006-8) and during (2009-11) marijuana commercialization differed from patterns in NMMS while controlling for demographics. Within Colorado those reporting "great-risk" to using marijuana 1-2 times/week dropped significantly in all age groups studied between 2007-8 and 2010-11 (e.g. from 45% to 31% among those 26 years and older; p=0.0006). By 2010-11 past-year marijuana abuse/dependence had become more prevalent in Colorado for 12-17 year olds (5% in Colorado, 3% in NMMS; p=0.03) and 18-25 year olds (9% vs. 5%; p=0.02). Regressions demonstrated significantly greater reductions in perceived risk (12-17 year olds, p=0.005; those 26 years and older, p=0.01), and trend for difference in changes in availability among those 26 years and older and marijuana abuse/dependence among 12-17 year olds in Colorado compared to NMMS in more recent years (2009-11 vs. 2006-8). Our results show that commercialization of marijuana in Colorado has been associated with lower risk perception. Evidence is suggestive for marijuana abuse/dependence. Analyses including subsequent years 2012+ once available, will help determine whether such changes represent momentary vs. sustained effects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Temporal trends in pregnancy weight gain and birth weight in Bavaria 2000–2007: slightly decreasing birth weight with increasing weight gain in pregnancy

    OpenAIRE

    Schiessl, Barbara; Beyerlein, Andreas; Lack, Nicholas; Kries, Rüdiger von

    2009-01-01

    Aims: To assess temporal trends in birth weight and pregnancy weight gain in Bavaria from 2000 to 2007. Methods: Data on 695,707 mother and infant pairs (singleton term births) were available from a compulsory reporting system for quality assurance, including information on birth weight, maternal weight at delivery and at booking, maternal smoking, age, and further anthropometric and lifestyle factors. Pregnancy weight gain was defined as: weight prior to delivery minus weight at first booki...

  9. Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Routti, H.; Letcher, R.J.; Born, E.W.; Branigan, M.; Dietz, R.; Evans, T.J.; Fisk, A.T.; Peacock, E.; Sonne, C.

    2011-01-01

    Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg 2+-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements. ?? 2011 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  10. Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Routti, Heli; Letcher, Robert J; Born, Erik W; Branigan, Marsha; Dietz, Rune; Evans, Thomas J; Fisk, Aaron T; Peacock, Elizabeth; Sonne, Christian

    2011-08-01

    Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg(2+)-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements.

  11. Temporal trends in the association between socioeconomic status and cancer survival in Ontario: a population-based retrospective study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabbikeh, Andrew; Peng, Yingwei; Mackillop, William J.; Booth, Christopher M.; Zhang-Salomons, Jina

    2017-01-01

    Background: Cancer survival is known to be associated with socioeconomic status. The income gap between the richer and poorer segments of the population has widened over the last 20 years in Canada. The purpose of this study was to investigate temporal trends in disparities in cancer-specific survival related to socioeconomic status in Ontario. Methods: There were 920 334 cancer cases between 1993 and 2009 in the Ontario Cancer Registry. We linked median household income from the Canadian census to the registry. We calculated 5-year cancer-specific survival rates for all cancers combined and for specific cancer sites by socioeconomic status quintile and year of diagnosis, and modelled time to death using Cox regression. Results: Between 1993 and 2009, for all cancers combined, the hazard of death decreased by 3.1% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.969 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.967-0.971]) per year in the richest quintile and by 1.2% (HR 0.988 [95% CI 0.987-0.990]) per year in the poorest quintile. The corresponding values for breast cancer were 4.3% (HR 0.957 [95% CI 0.951-0.964]) and 2.0% (HR 0.980 [95% CI 0.975-0.986]); for lung cancer, 1.4% (HR 0.986 [95% CI 0.982-0.990]) and 0.3% (HR 0.997 [95% CI 0.995-1.000]); for colorectal cancer, 3.7% (HR 0.963 [95% CI 0.958-0.968]) and 1.8% (HR 0.982 [95% CI 0.978-0.985]); and for head and neck cancer, 3.1% (HR 0.969 [95% CI 0.958-0.979]) and 1.0% (HR 0.990 [95% CI 0.983-0.996]). Interpretation: Between 1993 and 2009, cancer-specific survival in Ontario improved more among patients from affluent communities than among those from poorer communities. This phenomenon cannot be explained by increased disparity in income. PMID:28877916

  12. Temporal Trends of Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the Veteran Affairs Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittal, Sahil; Sada, Yvonne H.; El-Serag, Hashem B.; Kanwal, Fasiha; Duan, Zhigang; Temple, Sarah; May, Sarah B.; Kramer, Jennifer R.; Richardson, Peter A.; Davila, Jessica A.

    2014-01-01

    Background & Aims Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, no systemic studies from the United States have examined temporal trends, HCC surveillance practices, and outcomes of NAFLD-related HCC. Methods We identified a national cohort of 1500 patients who developed HCC from 2005 through 2010 from Veterans Administration (VA) hospitals. We reviewed patients’ full VA medical records; NAFLD was diagnosed based on histologic evidence for, or the presence of, metabolic syndrome in the absence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, hepatitis B, or alcoholic liver disease. We compared annual prevalence values for the main risk factors (NAFLD, alcohol abuse, HCV), as well HCC surveillance and outcomes, among HCC patients. Results NAFLD was the underlying risk factor for HCC in 120 patients (8.0%); the annual proportion of NAFLD-related HCC remained relatively stable (7.5%–12.0%). In contrast, the proportion of HCC cases associated with HCV increased from 61.0% in 2005 (95% confidence interval, 53.1%–68.9%) to 74.9% in 2010 (95% confidence interval, 69.0%–80.7%). The proportion of HCC cases associated with only alcohol abuse decreased from 21.9% in 2005 to 15.7% in 2010, and the annual proportion of HCC cases associated with hepatitis B remained relatively stable (1.4%–3.5%). A significantly lower proportion of patients with NAFLD-related HCC had cirrhosis (58.3%) compared to patients with alcohol- or HCV-related HCC (72.4% and 85.6%, respectively; P<.05). A significantly higher percentage of patients with NAFLD-related HCC did not receive HCC surveillance in the 3 years before their HCC diagnosis, compared to patients with alcohol- or HCV-associated HCC. A lower proportion of patients with NAFLD-related HCC received HCC-specific treatment (61.5%) than of patients with HCV-related HCC (77.5%; P<.01). However, 1-year survival did not differ among patients with HCC related to different risk factors

  13. Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau Josephine Y

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

  14. Temporal Trends in Clinical and Pathological Characteristics for Men Undergoing Radical Prostatectomy Between 1995 and 2013 at Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark, and Stanford University Hospital, United States

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loft, Mathias Dyrberg; Berg, Kasper Drimer; Kjaer, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: To analyze how prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening and practice patterns has affected trends in tumor characteristics in men undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) in the United States and Denmark. Unlike in the United States, PSA screening has not been recommended in Denmark...... evaluated with Cochran-Armitage test for trends and chi-square testing. Results: A total of 4404 patients were included. Temporal changes in preoperative PSA, age, grade, and stage was found in both cohorts. Median preoperative PSA declined in both cohorts, while median age increased, with the Danish cohort...... showing the greatest changes in both PSA and age. In both cohorts, there was a trend for higher-risk preoperative features before RP over time. In 2010-2013, 27.7% and 21.8% of the patients were in the D'Amico high-risk group at Copenhagen and Stanford, respectively. Conclusion: Despite recommendation...

  15. Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

    2015-04-01

    This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

  16. Temporal trends in dioxins (polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofurans) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Aroha; Hedman, Jenny E; Nyberg, Elisabeth; Haglund, Peter; Cousins, Ian T; Wiberg, Karin; Bignert, Anders

    2013-08-15

    Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl (dl-PCBs) concentrations in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) have been relatively stable since the mid to late 1990s. It is unclear why concentrations in Baltic herring are not following the observed decreases in other environmental matrices. Here, changes in long-term temporal trends in Baltic herring were examined. A number of biological variables were examined alongside the temporal trends to investigate whether fish biology e.g., growth (length, weight, age), lipid content, reproductive phase or fishing date may provide an explanation for the temporal trends observed. Significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends were observed for PCDD/F toxic equivalents (TEQPCDD/F) at three of the four sites (lipid weight (lw) and wet weight (ww), Swedish west coast lw only); however, other TEQ values e.g., TEQPCDD, TEQPCDF, TEQdl-PCB, TEQPCDD/F+dl-PCB were inconsistent, decreasing at some sites but not others. In the most recent 10 years of data, fewer significant decreases were seen overall. Over the examined time period, significant decreases (Bothnian Bay, p<0.01, southern Baltic Proper, p<0.02) and increases (Swedish west coast, p<0.02) in lipid content, growth dilution or lack thereof, and significant changes in age were observed. However herring were not randomly selected which biases this result. Continual efforts to decrease PCDD/F and dl-PCB emissions and to locate/reduce hotspots are necessary, while bearing in mind that herring biology may be impeding faster decreases of these chemicals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

    2017-01-25

    Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000-2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

  18. Current status and temporal trend of heavy metals in farmland soil of the Yangtze River Delta Region: Field survey and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Diwei; Zhan, Yu; Zhou, Wenjun; Zhu, Lizhong

    2016-12-01

    While the spatial distributions of heavy metals in farmland soil of China have been comprehensively delineated, their temporal trends are rarely investigated but are important for environmental risk management. In this study, the current status and temporal trends of heavy metals in the farmland soil of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) were evaluated through field survey and meta-analysis. The field survey conducted in 2014 showed that the concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn, and Ni in the farmland topsoil were 0.23 ± 0.14, 37.63 ± 15.60, 25.83 ± 41.62, 88.38 ± 43.30, and 29.21 ± 12.41 mg kg -1 (mean ± standard deviation), respectively. The heavy metals showed relatively higher concentrations on the borders among Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. In the meta-analysis, we selected 68 published studies related to heavy metal pollution in farmland topsoil of YRD from 2000 to the year (2014) when the field survey was conducted. The results show an increasing trend for Cd (p soil remediation are needed to protect food safety and ecosystem from heavy metal pollution, especially Cd. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Temporal trends in water-quality constituent concentrations and annual loads of chemical constituents in Michigan watersheds, 1998–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoard, Christopher J.; Fogarty, Lisa R.; Duris, Joseph W.

    2018-02-21

    In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program for select streams in the State of Michigan. Objectives of this program were to provide assistance with (1) statewide water-quality assessments, (2) the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permitting process, and (3) water-resource management decisions. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2013 were analyzed to identify potential trends for select constituents that were sampled. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 32 stations throughout Michigan. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using either the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test or through Tobit regression. In total, 79 trends were detected in the constituents analyzed for 32 river stations sampled for the study period—53 downward trends and 26 upward trends were detected. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the State was for ammonia, with 11 downward trends and 1 upward trend estimated.In addition to trends, constituent loads were estimated for 31 stations from 2002 to 2013 for stations that were sampled 12 times per year. Loads were computed using the Autobeale load computation program, which used the Beale ratio estimator approach to estimate an annual load. Constituent loads were the largest in large watershed streams with the highest annual flows such as the Saginaw and Grand Rivers. Likewise, constituent loads were the smallest in smaller tributaries that were sampled as part of this program such as the Boardman and Thunder Bay Rivers.

  20. Precipitation collector bias and its effects on temporal trends and spatial variability in National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetherbee, Gregory A.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation samples have been collected by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program's (NADP) National Trends Network (NTN) using the Aerochem Metrics Model 301 (ACM) collector since 1978. Approximately one-third of the NTN ACM collectors have been replaced with N-CON Systems, Inc. Model ADS 00-120 (NCON) collectors. Concurrent data were collected over 6 years at 12 NTN sites using colocated ACM and NCON collectors in various precipitation regimes. Linear regression models of the colocated data were used to adjust for relative bias between the collectors. Replacement of ACM collectors with NCON collectors resulted in shifts in 10-year seasonal precipitation-weighted mean concentration (PWMC) trend slopes for: cations (−0.001 to −0.007 mgL−1yr−1), anions (−0.009 to −0.028 mgL−1yr−1), and hydrogen ion (+0.689 meqL-1yr−1). Larger shifts in NO3− and SO4−2 seasonal PWMC trend slopes were observed in the Midwest and Northeast US, where concentrations are generally higher than in other regions. Geospatial analysis of interpolated concentration rasters indicated regions of accentuated variability introduced by incorporation of NCON collectors into the NTN.

  1. Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

    2010-01-01

    We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

  2. Vitamins A and E in liver, kidney, and whole blood of East Greenland polar bears sampled 1994–2008: reference values and temporal trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bechshoft, T.; Sonne, C.; Jakobsen, Jette

    2015-01-01

    on this health issue in polar bears (Ursus maritimus). The aim of this study was thus to provide reference values for concentrations of vitamin A in liver, kidney cortex, and whole blood and vitamin E in kidney cortex and whole blood from 166 East Greenland polar bears, as well as to assess the relationship...... that POPs could be disrupting polar bear vitamin status. However, while the observed temporal increases in vitamin concentrations were likely POP related, the question remains as to whether they stem from influence of contaminants only or also, e.g., changes in prey species. Further studies are needed...... between POPs and vitamin concentrations. In addition, vitamin concentrations were analyzed for temporal trends (1994–2008). Results showed vitamin A in liver to be higher in adult bears and the concentrations of vitamin E in kidney and blood to likewise be generally higher in adult bears. In addition, all...

  3. Environmental illness in Nova Scotia, 1983-2003

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Janigan, David T

    2003-01-01

    ... 1989: Kitchen Investigations and Changes C. March-June 1989: Dishwasher Room Suspected Source of an Airborne Irritant D. October-December 1989: Further Dishwasher and Irritant (Sodium Hydroxide)...

  4. A profile of sports science research (1983-2003).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Stephen John; Kendall, Lawrence R

    2007-08-01

    A majority of sports science research is undertaken in universities and dedicated research centres, such as institutes of sport. Reviews of literature analysing and categorising research have been carried out, but categories identified have been limited to research design and data gathering techniques. Hence there is a need to include categories such as discipline, subjects and targeted sport. A study was conducted using document analysis method to gather data that described and categorised performance-based sports science research projects in Australian universities and institutes of sport. An instrument was designed that could be used by researchers to analyse and profile research in the area of sports science. The instrument contained six categories: targeted sport, primary study area, participant type, research setting, methodology and data gathering techniques. Research documents analysed consisted of 725 original unpublished research reports/theses. Results showed that over two-thirds of research projects were targeted to specific sports and, of this group, nearly half involved four sports: cycling, rowing, athletics and swimming. Overall, physiology was the most researched scientific discipline. The most frequently used research method was experimental design, and the most frequently used data gathering technique was physiological (performance) measures. Two-thirds of research was conducted in laboratory settings, and nearly half of the research was conducted with elite or sub-elite athletes as participants/subjects. The findings of this study provide an overall synopsis of performance-based sports science research conducted in Australia over the last 20 years, and should be of considerable importance in the ongoing development of sports science research policy in Australia.

  5. Spatial-temporal trend for mother-to-child transmission of HIV up to infancy and during pre-Option B+ in western Kenya, 2007-13.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waruru, Anthony; Achia, Thomas N O; Muttai, Hellen; Ng'ang'a, Lucy; Zielinski-Gutierrez, Emily; Ochanda, Boniface; Katana, Abraham; Young, Peter W; Tobias, James L; Juma, Peter; De Cock, Kevin M; Tylleskär, Thorkild

    2018-01-01

    Using spatial-temporal analyses to understand coverage and trends in elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (e-MTCT) efforts may be helpful in ensuring timely services are delivered to the right place. We present spatial-temporal analysis of seven years of HIV early infant diagnosis (EID) data collected from 12 districts in western Kenya from January 2007 to November 2013, during pre-Option B+ use. We included in the analysis infants up to one year old. We performed trend analysis using extended Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel stratified test and logistic regression models to examine trends and associations of infant HIV status at first diagnosis with: early diagnosis (ever having breastfed, use of single dose nevirapine, and maternal antiretroviral therapy status. We examined these covariates and fitted spatial and spatial-temporal semiparametric Poisson regression models to explain HIV-infection rates using R-integrated nested Laplace approximation package. We calculated new infections per 100,000 live births and used Quantum GIS to map fitted MTCT estimates for each district in Nyanza region. Median age was two months, interquartile range 1.5-5.8 months. Unadjusted pooled positive rate was 11.8% in the seven-years period and declined from 19.7% in 2007 to 7.0% in 2013, p best in explaining geographical variation in MTCT. Improved EID uptake and reduced MTCT rates are indicators of progress towards e-MTCT. Cojoined analysis of time and covariates in a spatial context provides a robust approach for explaining differences in programmatic impact over time. During this pre-Option B+ period, the prevention of mother to child transmission program in this region has not achieved e-MTCT target of ≤50 infections per 100,000 live births. Geographical disparities in program achievements may signify gaps in spatial distribution of e-MTCT efforts and could indicate areas needing further resources and interventions.

  6. Temporal Trends and Correlates of Physical Activity, Sedentary Behaviour, and Physical Fitness among School-Aged Children in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stella K. Muthuri

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent physical activity (PA and fitness transitions, identified as behavioural shifts from traditionally active lifestyles to more industralised and sedentary lifestyles, have been observed among school-aged children. There is a wealth of supporting evidence of such behavioural transitions in high income countries; however, a paucity of data on lower income countries exists. These transitions pose a particular threat to the welfare of children by accelerating the onset of chronic diseases. This systematic review investigated the evidence for a PA and fitness transition among Sub-Saharan Africa’s school-aged children. Temporal trends and correlates of PA, SB, and fitness were examined. Studies were identified by searching the Medline, Embase, Africa Index Medicus, Global Health, Geobase, and EPPI-Centre electronic databases, and were included if they measured outcomes of interest in apparently healthy samples of children (5‒17 years. A total of 71 articles met the inclusion criteria (40 informed PA, 17 informed SB, and 37 informed fitness. Vast heterogeneity in study methodology complicated analysis of transitions over time and no temporal trends were immediately discernible. However, higher socioeconomic status, urban living, and female children were found to engage in lower levels of PA, higher SB, and performed worse on aerobic fitness measures compared to lower socioeconomic status, rural living, and male children. Data revealed that urbanization was associated with a trend towards decreased PA, increased SB, and decreased aerobic fitness over time. Representative, temporally sequenced data examining a PA and fitness transition are lacking in this region (PROSPERO Registration Number: CRD42013004399.

  7. Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula

    2009-01-01

    AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

  8. Estudo temporal das doenças associadas à AIDS no Brasil, 1980-1999 Temporal trends in AIDS-associated opportunistic infections in Brazil, 1980-1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Drew Crosland Guimarães

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Neste trabalho foram estimadas as incidências de condições associadas (CA à AIDS/100 casos de AIDS em adultos (> 12 anos, a nível nacional, de 1980 a maio de 1999. A análise incluiu qui-quadrado e regressão linear simples. As CA analisadas foram candidíase (CD, tuberculose (TB, pneumonia por Pneumocystis carinii (PCP, neurotoxoplasmose(NT, Herpes, Sarcoma de Kaposi (SK, meningite criptocócica (MC e infecções por protozoários (IP. As incidências acumuladas/100 casos de AIDS foram: CD = 59, TB = 26, PCP = 23, NT = 15, Herpes = 12, SK = 5, MC = 4 e IP = 4. A tendência anual indicou queda estatisticamente significativa em todas as CA. Entretando, houve aumento na incidência de TB (b = 0,39 e NT (b = 0,20, para as regiões Nordeste e Centro-Oeste, respectivamente. TB apresentou maior incidência entre aqueles com baixa escolaridade (Trends in annual incidence of reported AIDS-associated opportunistic infections (OI/100 adults > 12 years old among AIDS cases were estimated at the national level in Brazil from 1980 through May 1999. The analysis included chi-square and linear regression modeling. The opportunistic infections included: candidiasis (CD, tuberculosis (TB, Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP, neurotoxoplasmosis (NT, Kaposi sarcoma (KS, cryptococcal meningitis (CM, and protozoa infections (PI. The overall cumulative incidence rates/100 reported AIDS cases were: CD = 59, TB = 26, PCP = 23, NT = 15, KS = 5, CM = 4, and PI = 4. Annual trends indicated a statistically significant decline in all OIs. However, in the Northeast and Central-West regions there were increases in TB (b = 0.39 and NT (b = 0.20, respectively. TB showed a higher incidence among individuals with less schooling (< 8 years, while PCP and KS had higher incidence rates among those with 8 or more years of schooling, despite similar downward trends. Access to antiretroviral therapy and OI prophylaxis may partially explain these results. However, data reliability

  9. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kierkegaard, A.; Bignert, A.; Sellstroem, U.; Olsson, M.; Asplund, L.; Jansson, B.; Wit, C.A. de

    2004-07-01

    Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s ({sigma}5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location. - PBDEs and MeO-BDEs show different temporal trends in pike from a Swedish lake suggesting different sources.

  10. Spatial patterns and temporal trends in mercury concentrations, precipitation depths, and mercury wet deposition in the North American Great Lakes region, 2002–2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risch, Martin R.; Gay, David A.; Fowler, Kathleen K.; Keeler, Gerard J.; Backus, Sean M.; Blanchard, Pierrette; Barres, James A.; Dvonch, J. Timothy

    2012-01-01

    Annual and weekly mercury (Hg) concentrations, precipitation depths, and Hg wet deposition in the Great Lakes region were analyzed by using data from 5 monitoring networks in the USA and Canada for a 2002–2008 study period. High-resolution maps of calculated annual data, 7-year mean data, and net interannual change for the study period were prepared to assess spatial patterns. Areas with 7-year mean annual Hg concentrations higher than the 12 ng per liter water-quality criterion were mapped in 4 states. Temporal trends in measured weekly data were determined statistically. Monitoring sites with significant 7-year trends in weekly Hg wet deposition were spatially separated and were not sites with trends in weekly Hg concentration. During 2002–2008, Hg wet deposition was found to be unchanged in the Great Lakes region and its subregions. Any small decreases in Hg concentration apparently were offset by increases in precipitation. - Highlights: ► Data from 5 Hg and precipitation networks in the USA and Canada were combined for the first time. ► High-resolution maps and statistical trends tests were used for spatial and temporal data analysis. ► Some 7-year mean annual Hg concentrations exceeded a 12 ng per liter water-quality criterion. ► Small, localized decreases in Hg concentration were offset by increases in precipitation. ► Hg wet deposition was unchanged in the Great Lakes region and its subregions during 2002–2008. - Analysis of monitoring data from 5 networks in the USA and Canada determined that mercury wet deposition was unchanged in the North American Great Lakes region during 2002–2008.

  11. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kierkegaard, A.; Bignert, A.; Sellstroem, U.; Olsson, M.; Asplund, L.; Jansson, B.; Wit, C.A. de

    2004-01-01

    Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s (Σ5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location. - PBDEs and MeO-BDEs show different temporal trends in pike from a Swedish lake suggesting different sources

  12. Temporal trends and characteristics of clinical trials for which only one racial or ethnic group is eligible

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian L. Egleston

    2018-03-01

    Conclusions: In selected fields, there has been a modest temporal increase in single race/ethnicity inclusion requirements. Some studies may not fall under regulatory purview and hence may be less likely to include diverse samples. Conversely, some eligibility requirements may be related to health disparities research. Future work should examine whether targeted enrollment criteria facilitates development of personalized medicine or reduces trial access.

  13. Temporal Trends in Disease Severity and Predicted Surgical Risk at the Time of Referral for Echocardiography in Patients Diagnosed with Aortic Stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ersboll, Mads; Samad, Zainab; Al Enezi, Fawaz

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Calcific aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common underlying pathology in patients undergoing heart valve surgery, with an expected increasing prevalence among the aging population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified the temporal trends in referral patterns, disease severity, and assoc......BACKGROUND: Calcific aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common underlying pathology in patients undergoing heart valve surgery, with an expected increasing prevalence among the aging population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified the temporal trends in referral patterns, disease severity......, and associated surgical risk among patients with AS between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2012 at the Duke University Hospital. A total of 6103 patients had a finding of mild (n = 3303), moderate (n = 1648), or severe AS (n = 1152) in a native aortic valve. Overall presence of severe AS increased...... with a finding of severe AS, the proportion of patients aged older than 80 years increased to 51.0% in the most recent time period (2010-2012) compared with 32.6% in the preceding time period (P proportion of patients with a logistic EuroSCORE greater than 20...

  14. Trends and Opportunities of BIM-GIS Integration in the Architecture, Engineering and Construction Industry: A Review from a Spatio-Temporal Statistical Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongze Song

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The integration of building information modelling (BIM and geographic information system (GIS in construction management is a new and fast developing trend in recent years, from research to industrial practice. BIM has advantages on rich geometric and semantic information through the building life cycle, while GIS is a broad field covering geovisualization-based decision making and geospatial modelling. However, most current studies of BIM-GIS integration focus on the integration techniques but lack theories and methods for further data analysis and mathematic modelling. This paper reviews the applications and discusses future trends of BIM-GIS integration in the architecture, engineering and construction (AEC industry based on the studies of 96 high-quality research articles from a spatio-temporal statistical perspective. The analysis of these applications helps reveal the evolution progress of BIM-GIS integration. Results show that the utilization of BIM-GIS integration in the AEC industry requires systematic theories beyond integration technologies and deep applications of mathematical modeling methods, including spatio-temporal statistical modeling in GIS and 4D/nD BIM simulation and management. Opportunities of BIM-GIS integration are outlined as three hypotheses in the AEC industry for future research on the in-depth integration of BIM and GIS. BIM-GIS integration hypotheses enable more comprehensive applications through the life cycle of AEC projects.

  15. Temporal trends in TB notification rates during ART scale-up in Cape Town: an ecological analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, Sabine; Boulle, Andrew; Caldwell, Judy; Pienaar, David; Wood, Robin

    2015-01-01

    Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces individual tuberculosis (TB) risk by two-thirds, the population-level impact remains uncertain. Cape Town reports high TB notification rates associated with endemic HIV. We examined population trends in TB notification rates during a 10-year period of

  16. Spatial and Temporal Trends in PM2.5 Organic and Elemental Carbon across the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Hand

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The rural/remote IMPROVE network (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments and the Environmental Protection Agency's urban Chemical Speciation Network have measured PM2.5 organic (OC and elemental carbon (EC since 1989 and 2000, respectively. We aggregated OC and EC data from 2007 to 2010 at over 300 sites from both networks in order to characterize the spatial and seasonal patterns in rural and urban carbonaceous aerosols. The spatial extent of OC and EC was more regional in the eastern United States relative to more localized concentrations in the West. The highest urban impacts of OC and EC relative to background concentrations occurred in the West during fall and winter. Urban and rural carbonaceous aerosols experienced a large (although opposite range in seasonality in the West compared to a much lower seasonal variability in the East. Long-term (1990–2010 trend analyses indicated a widespread decrease in rural TC (TC = OC + EC across the country, with positive, though insignificant, trends in the summer and fall in the West. Short-term trends indicated that urban and rural TC concentrations have both decreased since 2000, with the strongest and more spatially homogeneous urban and rural trends in the West relative to the East.

  17. Spatial–temporal trend for mother-to-child transmission of HIV up to infancy and during pre-Option B+ in western Kenya, 2007–13

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Waruru

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Using spatial–temporal analyses to understand coverage and trends in elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (e-MTCT efforts may be helpful in ensuring timely services are delivered to the right place. We present spatial–temporal analysis of seven years of HIV early infant diagnosis (EID data collected from 12 districts in western Kenya from January 2007 to November 2013, during pre-Option B+ use. Methods We included in the analysis infants up to one year old. We performed trend analysis using extended Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel stratified test and logistic regression models to examine trends and associations of infant HIV status at first diagnosis with: early diagnosis (<8 weeks after birth, age at specimen collection, infant ever having breastfed, use of single dose nevirapine, and maternal antiretroviral therapy status. We examined these covariates and fitted spatial and spatial–temporal semiparametric Poisson regression models to explain HIV-infection rates using R-integrated nested Laplace approximation package. We calculated new infections per 100,000 live births and used Quantum GIS to map fitted MTCT estimates for each district in Nyanza region. Results Median age was two months, interquartile range 1.5–5.8 months. Unadjusted pooled positive rate was 11.8% in the seven-years period and declined from 19.7% in 2007 to 7.0% in 2013, p < 0.01. Uptake of testing ≤8 weeks after birth was under 50% in 2007 and increased to 64.1% by 2013, p < 0.01. By 2013, the overall standardized MTCT rate was 447 infections per 100,000 live births. Based on Bayesian deviance information criterion comparisons, the spatial–temporal model with maternal and infant covariates was best in explaining geographical variation in MTCT. Discussion Improved EID uptake and reduced MTCT rates are indicators of progress towards e-MTCT. Cojoined analysis of time and covariates in a spatial context provides a robust approach for explaining

  18. Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Rodhouse

    Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

  19. Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a

  20. Temporal geochemical trends in northern Luzon arc lavas (Philippines): implications on metasomatic processes in the island arc mantle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maury, R.C.; Bellon, H.; Jacques, D.; Defant, J.; Joron, J.L.; Mcdermott, F.; Vidal, Ph.

    1998-01-01

    Neogene and Quaternary lavas from Batan, Babuyan de Claro, Camiguin and Calayan islands (northern Luzon arc) display temporal increases in incompatible elements including Cs, Rb, Ba, K, La, Ce, Th, U, Ta, Hf and Zr from volcanoes older than 3 Ma to younger ones. These enrichments occur either within a single island (Batan) or within an island group (from Calayan to Camiguin and Babuyan). We show that these enrichments result from incompatible element input into the mantle wedge rather than from partial melting or fractionation effects. The fact that highly incompatible elements display temporal enrichment patterns in Batan lavas whatever their chemical properties indicates that hydrous fluids are not the only metasomatic agents operating in the mantle wedge and that slab-derived melts (adakitic magmas) may also be involved. The coupled temporal variation patterns of large ion lithophile elements and Sr-Nd isotopes suggest that the metasomatic budgets beneath the southern group of islands are mainly controlled by hydrous fluids inputs. In contrast, young Batan lavas likely derive from a mantle source mostly metasomatized by adakitic magmas. (authors)

  1. Spatial-temporal Evolution of Karst Rocky Desertification and Future Trends Based on CA-Markov Methods in Typical Karst Valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHEN Fei

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Karst rocky desertification(KRDhas become the most serious ecological disaster in Southwest China. It is very important and much-needed to explore the rule of spatial-temporal evolution of KRD for ecological restoration and sustainable development of the region. In this paper, the improved accurate remote sensing image interpreting method and CA-Markov prediction method were used to explore the spatial-temporal evolution rule of KRD in the study area from 1990 to 2021 based on the long time line remote sensing image of the year of 1990, 2004 and 2016. The results were as follows:the spatial -temporal evolution rule of KRD presented "first deterioration and then improvement" in the study area at nearly 30 years. The deterioration of KRD was affected by high intensity overload human activities and natural disasters in 1990-2004, which made the ecological environment deterioration. However, the KRD had gradually improved with the implementation of a series of governance projects, and a large number of rural labor forces were liberated from the land in 2004-2016, which made the natural environment restoration, and ecological system was getting better and better. At the same time, the trend of KRD evolution was showing improvement from the predicted years of 2016-2021 and the ecological environment in the region continued to become better.

  2. Combined multivariate statistical techniques, Water Pollution Index (WPI) and Daniel Trend Test methods to evaluate temporal and spatial variations and trends of water quality at Shanchong River in the Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Quan; Wu, Xianhua; Zhao, Bin; Qin, Jie; Peng, Tingchun

    2015-01-01

    Understanding spatial and temporal variations in river water quality and quantitatively evaluating the trend of changes are important in order to study and efficiently manage water resources. In this study, an analysis of Water Pollution Index (WPI), Daniel Trend Test, Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied as an integrated approach to quantitatively explore the spatial and temporal variations and the latent sources of water pollution in the Shanchong River basin, Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China. We group all field surveys into 2 clusters (dry season and rainy season). Moreover, 14 sampling sites have been grouped into 3 clusters for the rainy season (highly polluted, moderately polluted and less polluted sites) and 2 clusters for the dry season (highly polluted and less polluted sites) based on their similarities and the level of pollution during the two seasons. The results show that the main trend of pollution was aggravated during the transition from the dry to the rainy season. The Water Pollution Index of Total Nitrogen is the highest of all pollution parameters, whereas the Chemical Oxygen Demand (Chromium) is the lowest. Our results also show that the main sources of pollution are farming activities alongside the Shanchong River, soil erosion and fish culture at Shanchong River reservoir area and domestic sewage from scattered rural residential area. Our results suggest that strategies to prevent water pollutionat the Shanchong River basin need to focus on non-point pollution control by employing appropriate fertilizer formulas in farming, and take the measures of soil and water conservation at Shanchong reservoir area, and purifying sewage from scattered villages.

  3. Combined multivariate statistical techniques, Water Pollution Index (WPI and Daniel Trend Test methods to evaluate temporal and spatial variations and trends of water quality at Shanchong River in the Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quan Wang

    Full Text Available Understanding spatial and temporal variations in river water quality and quantitatively evaluating the trend of changes are important in order to study and efficiently manage water resources. In this study, an analysis of Water Pollution Index (WPI, Daniel Trend Test, Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied as an integrated approach to quantitatively explore the spatial and temporal variations and the latent sources of water pollution in the Shanchong River basin, Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China. We group all field surveys into 2 clusters (dry season and rainy season. Moreover, 14 sampling sites have been grouped into 3 clusters for the rainy season (highly polluted, moderately polluted and less polluted sites and 2 clusters for the dry season (highly polluted and less polluted sites based on their similarities and the level of pollution during the two seasons. The results show that the main trend of pollution was aggravated during the transition from the dry to the rainy season. The Water Pollution Index of Total Nitrogen is the highest of all pollution parameters, whereas the Chemical Oxygen Demand (Chromium is the lowest. Our results also show that the main sources of pollution are farming activities alongside the Shanchong River, soil erosion and fish culture at Shanchong River reservoir area and domestic sewage from scattered rural residential area. Our results suggest that strategies to prevent water pollutionat the Shanchong River basin need to focus on non-point pollution control by employing appropriate fertilizer formulas in farming, and take the measures of soil and water conservation at Shanchong reservoir area, and purifying sewage from scattered villages.

  4. Temporal trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors among white, South Asian, Chinese and black groups in Ontario, Canada, 2001 to 2012: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Maria; Maclagan, Laura C; Tu, Jack V; Shah, Baiju R

    2015-08-10

    To determine ethnic-specific temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factors in Ontario between 2001 and 2012. A population-based repeated cross-sectional study. Ontario, Canada. 219,276 participants of the Canadian Community Health Survey (205,326 white, 5620 South Asian, 4368 Chinese and 3962 black) during the period 2001 to 2012. Age-standardised ethnic-sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors for three time periods: 2001-2004, 2005-2008 and 2009-2012 among Canada's four major ethnic groups: white, South Asian, Chinese and black. During the study period, the prevalence of diabetes increased 2.3-fold (p = 0.0001) among South Asian males and 1.9-fold (p = 0.02) among black females. The prevalence of obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) increased over time across all ethnic groups, with the largest relative increases observed among males of Chinese (2.1-fold increase, p = 0.04) and black (1.7-fold increase, p = 0.06) descent. The prevalence of hypertension increased the most among black females. Smoking prevalence decreased by more than 20% among South Asian, Chinese and white females. Overall, South Asian males and black males and females showed the greatest declines in cardiovascular health over the study period. We observed important ethnic differences in the temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factor profiles in Ontario. Awareness of the direction and magnitude of these risk factor trends may be useful in informing targeted strategies for preventing cardiovascular diseases in multiethnic populations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  5. Long-Term Trends and Temporal Synchrony in Plankton Richness, Diversity and Biomass Driven by Re-Oligotrophication and Climate across 17 Danish Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korhan Özkan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A two-decade (1989–2008 time series of lake phyto- and zooplankton, water characteristics and climate in 17 Danish lakes was analysed to examine the long term changes and the effects of lake restoration efforts. The analyses of the pair-wise correlations across time series revealed a strong synchrony in climatic variables among the lakes. A significant, but weak increase in air temperature was observed and resulted in a corresponding increase in surface water temperature only in summer. Lake physico-chemical variables had weaker synchrony than climatic variables. Synchrony in water temperature and stratification was stronger than lake chemistry as the former is mostly affected by atmospheric energy flux. Synchrony in the taxonomic richness of the plankton groups and phytoplankton biomass was apparent, to a similar degree as observed for lake chemistry. The synchrony and the temporal trends in lake chemistry and plankton were more pronounced for the lakes with strong re-oligotrophication. Phytoplankton biomass decreased and plankton richness increased in these lakes, with a shift from Chlorophyta dominance towards more heterogeneous phytoplankton communities. Notably, a widespread significant positive trend in plankton richness was observed not only in lakes with strong re-oligotrophication but across all lakes. The widespread increase in plankton richness coincided with widespread decrease in phosphate and total nitrogen concentrations, as well as with the trends in climate indicating a likely joint effect of nutrient reduction and climate in driving lake plankton. However, temporal changes and synchrony as well as the recovery of richness and composition of lake plankton more coherently corresponded with the nutrient loading reduction across the Danish landscape, while the role of climate control of the lake plankton was less pronounced.

  6. Spatial and temporal evaluation of long term trend (2005-2014) of OMI retrieved NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Henan Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu

    2017-04-01

    Tropospheric NO2 and SO2 concentrations are of great importance with regard to air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change. Due to lack of surface monitoring stations, this study analyzes long term trend of NO2 and SO2 levels (2005-2014), retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) board on the NASA's Aura satellite, in an important region of China - Henan Province. Henan Province, located in North China Plain, has encountered serious air pollution problems including extremely high PM2.5 concentrations and as one of the most polluted region in China. The satellite spatial images clearly show that high levels of both NO2 and SO2 are concentrated in north and northeastern regions with much lower levels observed in other parts of Henan. Both pollutants exhibit the highest levels in winter with the least in summer/spring. The temporal trend analysis based on moving average of deseasonalized and decyclic data indicates that for NO2, there is a continuous increasing pattern from 2005 to 2011 at 6.4% per year, thereafter, it shows a decreasing trend (10.6% per year). As for SO2, the increasing trend is about 16% per year from 2005 to 2007 with decreasing rate 7% per year from 2007 to 2014. The economic development with incredible annual 11% GDP growth in Henan is responsible for increasing levels of NO2 and SO2. The observed decreasing SO2 level starting in 2007 is due to reduced SO2 emission, utilization of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices and to some extent, in preparation of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. On the other hand, increasing vehicle numbers (155% from 2006 to 2012) and coal consumption (37% during the same span), along with the lack of denitration process for removing flue/exhaust gas NOx are responsible for increasing NO2 trend until 2011. The ratio of SO2/NO2 started decreasing in 2007 and dropped significantly from 2011 to 2013 indicating good performance of FGD and ever increasing NOx contribution from mobile sources. Unlike those

  7. Temporal and elevation trends in rainfall erosivity on a 149 km2 watershed in a semi-arid region of the American Southwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A. Nearing

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Temporal changes in rainfall erosivity can be expected to occur with changing climate, and because rainfall amounts are known to be in part of a function of elevation, erosivity can be expected to be influenced by elevation as well. This is particularly true in mountainous regions such as are found over much of the western United States. The objective of this study was to identify temporal and elevation trends in rainfall erosivity on a 149 km2 (58 miles2 watershed in a semi-arid region of southeastern Arizona. Data from 84 rain gages for the years 1960–2012 at elevations ranging from 1231 to 1644 m (4038–5394 ft were used in the analyses. The average annual erosivity over the watershed as a whole was 1104 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 (65 hundreds of foot ton inch acre−1 h−1 yr−1, and ranged from approximately 950 to 1225 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 (56–72 hundreds of foot ton inch acre−1 h−1 yr−1, with a statistical trend showing greater erosivity at the higher elevations. No statistically significant temporal changes in annual or summer erosivities were found. This result stands in contrast to recent modeling studies of runoff and erosion in the area based on downscaled GCM information that project significant levels of erosivity changes over coming decades. These results are consistent with known orographic rainfall effects, but contrast with recent studies that presented projections of significant trends of increasing erosivity in the future based on downscaled GCM outputs for the area. The results illustrate the need for testing and developing improved techniques to evaluate future erosion scenarios for purposes of making targeted soil conservation decisions. Keywords: Climate change, R-factor, RUSLE, Semiarid, Soil erosion, Walnut Gulch

  8. Assessing temporal trends and source regions of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in air under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Fiona; Shoeib, Mahiba; Katsoyiannis, Athanasios; Eckhardt, Sabine; Stohl, Andreas; Bohlin-Nizzetto, Pernilla; Li, Henrik; Fellin, Phil; Su, Yushan; Hung, Hayley

    2018-01-01

    Long-term Arctic air monitoring of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) is essential in assessing their long-range transport and for evaluating the effectiveness of chemical control initiatives. We report for the first time temporal trends of neutral and ionic PFASs in air from three arctic stations: Alert (Canada, 2006-2014); Zeppelin (Svalbard, Norway, 2006-2014) and Andøya (Norway, 2010-2014). The most abundant PFASs were the perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA), and fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs). All of these chemicals exhibited increasing trends at Alert with doubling times (t2) of 3.7 years (y) for PFOA, 2.9 y for PFOS, 2.5 y for PFBA, 5.0 y for 8:2 FTOH and 7.0 y for 10:2 FTOH. In contrast, declining or non-changing trends, were observed for PFOA and PFOS at Zeppelin (PFOA, half-life, t1/2 = 7.2 y; PFOS t1/2 = 67 y), and Andøya (PFOA t1/2 = 1.9 y; PFOS t1/2 = 11 y). The differences in air concentrations and in time trends between the three sites may reflect the differences in regional regulations and source regions. We investigate the source region for particle associated compounds using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. Model results showed that PFOA and PFOS are impacted by air masses originating from the ocean or land. For instance, PFOA at Alert and PFOS at Zeppelin were dominated by oceanic air masses whereas, PFOS at Alert and PFOA at Zeppelin were influenced by air masses transported from land.

  9. Temporal trends for dioxins-related agrochemicals in sediments in a large-scale rice-producing area, Niigata, Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakai, Mizuki; Hideo, Kajihara [Niigata Univ. (Japan). Graduate School of Science and Technology; Hiroaki, Muto; Yukio, Takahashi [Niigata Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    2004-09-15

    Japanese people have historically eaten rice as the main grain constituent in their diet. In the past 50 years, a larger amount of agrochemicals have been applied to Japanese rice fields to increase rice production. Masunaga et al. reported that common Japanese agrochemicals such as pentachlorophenol (PCP) and chloronitrophen (CNP) used in rice fields in the past contain dioxins as impurities. Since Niigata Plain is the largest rice-producing area in Japan, the soil and/or sediment in the lower basin in Niigata Plain could be highly polluted. In the previous study, we measured the age of a sediment core and the amount of dioxins (PCDD/DFs) in Toyano Lagoon and estimated the historical trend and the sources of dioxin. Most of the sources of dioxin in Toyano Lagoon sediment were PCP and CNP. The aims of this work are to quantify the extent, clarify the historical trends of CNP and PCP pollution in the Toyano Lagoon sediment and consider the interrelation between them.

  10. Temporal trends of copper-bearing intrauterine device discontinuation: a population-based birth-cohort study of contraceptive use among rural married women in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jie; Tan, Xiaodong; Song, Xiangjing; Zhang, Kaining; Fang, Jing; Peng, Lin; Qi, Wencai; Nie, Zonghui; Li, Ming; Deng, Rui; Yan, Chaofang

    2015-03-01

    Copper-bearing intrauterine device (IUD) insertion for long-term contraceptive use is high in China, but there has been evidence that first-year discontinuation rate of copper-bearing IUD has also increased rapidly in recent years especially among rural married women. To investigate long-term use of copper-bearing IUD, the authors examined the 7-year temporal trends of copper-bearing IUD discontinuation in a population-based birth-cohort study among 720 rural married women in China, from 2004 to 2012. Women requesting contraception were followed-up twice per year after the insertion of IUD. The gross cumulative life table discontinuation rates were calculated for each of the main reasons for discontinuation as well as for all reasons combined. By the end of 7 years, 384 discontinuations were observed. With a stepped-up trend, the gross cumulative life table rate for discontinuation increased from 10.06 (95% confidence interval = 7.86-12.27) per 100 women by the first year to 52.69 (95% confidence interval = 48.94-56.44) per 100 women by the end of 7 years, which increased rapidly in the first 2 years after copper-bearing IUD insertion, flattened out gradually in the following 2 years, then increased again in the last 3 years. Among reported method failure, expulsion and side effects were the main reasons for discontinuation of the copper-bearing IUD but not pregnancy. Personal reasons, such as renewal by personal will had influenced copper-bearing IUD use since the second year and should not be neglected. Based on this study, the temporal trends of copper-bearing IUD discontinuation was in a stepped-up trend in 7 years after insertion. Both reported method failure (expulsion and side effect) and personal reason had effect on the discontinuation of copper-bearing IUD, but pregnancy was no more the most important reason affecting the use of copper-bearing IUD. © 2014 APJPH.

  11. Accidental hazardous material releases with human impacts in the United States: exploration of geographical distribution and temporal trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengul, Hatice; Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Chermak, Christina

    2010-09-01

    To investigate the circumstances and geographic and temporal distributions of hazardous material releases and resulting human impacts in the United States. Releases with fatalities, injuries, and evacuations were identified from reports to the National Response Center between 1990 and 2008, correcting for data quality issues identified in previous studies. From more than 550,000 reports, 861 deaths, 16,348 injuries and 741,427 evacuations were identified. Injuries from releases of chemicals at fixed facilities and natural gas from pipelines have decreased whereas evacuations from petroleum releases at fixed facilities have increased. Results confirm recent advances in chemical and pipeline safety and suggest directions for further improvement including targeted training and inspections and adoption of inherently safer design principles.

  12. Measuring spatial and temporal trends of nicotine and alcohol consumption in Australia using wastewater-based epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Foon Yin; Gartner, Coral; Hall, Wayne; Carter, Steve; O'Brien, Jake; Tscharke, Benjamin J; Been, Frederic; Gerber, Cobus; White, Jason; Thai, Phong; Bruno, Raimondo; Prichard, Jeremy; Kirkbride, K Paul; Mueller, Jochen F

    2018-06-01

    Tobacco and alcohol consumption remain priority public health issues world-wide. As participation in population-based surveys has fallen, it is increasingly challenging to estimate accurately the prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an alternative approach for estimating substance use at the population level that does not rely upon survey participation. This study examined spatio-temporal patterns in nicotine (a proxy for tobacco) and alcohol consumption in the Australian population via WBE. Daily wastewater samples (n = 164) were collected at 18 selected wastewater treatment plants across Australia, covering approximately 45% of the total population. Nicotine and alcohol metabolites in the samples were measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Daily consumption of nicotine and alcohol and its associated uncertainty were computed using Monte Carlo simulations. Nation-wide daily average and weekly consumption of these two substances were extrapolated using ordinary least squares and mixed-effect models. Nicotine and alcohol consumption was observed in all communities. Consumption of these substances in rural towns was three to four times higher than in urban communities. The spatial consumption pattern of these substances was consistent across the monitoring periods in 2014-15. Nicotine metabolites significantly reduced by 14-25% (P = 0.001-0.008) (2014-15) in some catchments. Alcohol consumption remained constant over the studied periods. Strong weekly consumption patterns were observed for alcohol but not nicotine. Nation-wide, the daily average consumption per person (aged 15-79 years) was estimated at approximately 2.5 cigarettes and 1.3-2.0 standard drinks (weekday-weekend) of alcohol. These estimates were close to the sale figure and apparent consumption, respectively. Wastewater-based epidemiology is a feasible method for objectively evaluating the geographic, temporal and weekly profiles of

  13. Age Effects and Temporal Trends in HPV-Related and HPV-Unrelated Oral Cancer in the United States: A Multistage Carcinogenesis Modeling Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew F Brouwer

    Full Text Available Differences in prognosis in HPV-positive and HPV-negative oral (oropharyngeal and oral cavity squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs and increasing incidence of HPV-related cancers have spurred interest in demographic and temporal trends in OSCC incidence. We leverage multistage clonal expansion (MSCE models coupled with age-period-cohort (APC epidemiological models to analyze OSCC data in the SEER cancer registry (1973-2012. MSCE models are based on the initiation-promotion-malignant conversion paradigm in carcinogenesis and allow for interpretation of trends in terms of biological mechanisms. APC models seek to differentiate between the temporal effects of age, period, and birth cohort on cancer risk. Previous studies have looked at the effect of period and cohort on tumor initiation, and we extend this to compare model fits of period and cohort effects on each of tumor initiation, promotion, and malignant conversion rates. HPV-related, HPV-unrelated except oral tongue, and HPV-unrelated oral tongue sites are best described by placing period and cohort effects on the initiation rate. HPV-related and non-oral-tongue HPV-unrelated cancers have similar promotion rates, suggesting similar tumorigenesis dynamics once initiated. Estimates of promotion rates at oral tongue sites are lower, corresponding to a longer sojourn time; this finding is consistent with the hypothesis of an etiology distinct from HPV or alcohol and tobacco use. Finally, for the three subsite groups, men have higher initiation rates than women of the same race, and black people have higher promotion than white people of the same sex. These differences explain part of the racial and sex differences in OSCC incidence.

  14. Temporal trends in fast-food restaurant energy, sodium, saturated fat, and trans fat content, United States, 1996-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Lorien E; Roberts, Susan B; Fierstein, Jamie L; Gary, Christine E; Lichtenstein, Alice H

    2014-12-31

    Excess intakes of energy, sodium, saturated fat, and trans fat are associated with increased risk for cardiometabolic syndrome. Trends in fast-food restaurant portion sizes can inform policy decisions. We examined the variability of popular food items in 3 fast-food restaurants in the United States by portion size during the past 18 years. Items from 3 national fast-food chains were selected: French fries, cheeseburgers, grilled chicken sandwich, and regular cola. Data on energy, sodium, saturated fat, and trans fat content were collated from 1996 through 2013 using an archival website. Time trends were assessed using simple linear regression models, using energy or a nutrient component as the dependent variable and the year as the independent variable. For most items, energy content per serving differed among chain restaurants for all menu items (P ≤ .04); energy content of 56% of items decreased (β range, -0.1 to -5.8 kcal) and the content of 44% increased (β range, 0.6-10.6 kcal). For sodium, the content of 18% of the items significantly decreased (β range, -4.1 to -24.0 mg) and the content for 33% increased (β range, 1.9-29.6 mg). Absolute differences were modest. The saturated and trans fat content, post-2009, was modest for French fries. In 2013, the energy content of a large-sized bundled meal (cheeseburger, French fries, and regular cola) represented 65% to 80% of a 2,000-calorie-per-day diet, and sodium content represented 63% to 91% of the 2,300-mg-per-day recommendation and 97% to 139% of the 1,500-mg-per-day recommendation. Findings suggest that efforts to promote reductions in energy, sodium, saturated fat, and trans fat intakes need to be shifted from emphasizing portion-size labels to additional factors such as total calories, frequency of eating, number of items ordered, menu choices, and energy-containing beverages.

  15. Spatio-temporal assessment and trend analysis of surface water salinity in the coastal region of Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shammi, Mashura; Rahman, Md Mostafizur; Islam, Md Atikul; Bodrud-Doza, Md; Zahid, Anwar; Akter, Yeasmin; Quaiyum, Samia; Kurasaki, Masaaki

    2017-06-01

    The study was designed to collect water samples over two seasons-wet-monsoon season (n = 96) (March-April) and dry-monsoon season (n = 44) (September-October)-to understand the seasonal variation in anion and cation hydrochemistry of the coastal rivers and estuaries contributing in the spatial trend in salinity. Hydrochemical examination of wet-monsoon season primarily revealed Ca-Mg-HCO 3 type (66%) and followed by Na-Cl type (17.70%) water. In the dry-monsoon season, the scenario reversed with primary water being Na-Cl type (52.27%) followed by Ca-Mg-HCO 3 type (31.81%). Analysis of Cl/Br molar ratio vs. Cl (mg/L) depicted sampling area affected by seawater intrusion (SWI). Spatial analysis by ordinary kriging method confirmed approximately 77% sample in the dry-monsoon, and 34% of the wet-monsoon season had shown SWI. The most saline-intruded areas in the wet-monsoon seasons were extreme south-west coastal zone of Bangladesh, lower Meghna River floodplain and Meghna estuarine floodplain and south-eastern part of Chittagong coastal plains containing the districts of Chittagong and Cox's Bazar adjacent to Bay of Bengal. In addition, mid-south zone is also affected slightly in the dry-monsoon season. From the analyses of data, this study could further help to comprehend seasonal trends in the hydrochemistry and water quality of the coastal and estuarine rivers. In addition, it can help policy makers to obligate some important implications for the future initiatives taken for the management of land, water, fishery, agriculture and environment of coastal rivers and estuaries of Bangladesh.

  16. Temporal trends in Inuit, First Nations and non-Aboriginal birth outcomes in rural and northern Quebec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonet, Fabienne; Wilkins, Russell; Luo, Zhong-Cheng

    2012-01-01

    The objective was to assess trends in Inuit, First Nations and non-Aboriginal birth outcomes in the rural and northern regions of Quebec. In a birth cohort-based study of all births to residents of rural and northern Quebec from 1991 through 2000 (n = 177,193), we analyzed birth outcomes and infant mortality for births classified by maternal mother tongue (Inuit, First Nations or non-Aboriginal) and by community type (predominantly First Nations, Inuit or non-Aboriginal). From 1991-1995 to 1996-2000, there was a trend of increasing rates of preterm birth for all 6 study groups. In all rural and northern areas, low birth weight rates increased significantly only for the Inuit mother tongue group [RR1.45 (95% CI 1.05-2.01)]. Stillbirth rates showed a non-significant increase for the Inuit mother tongue group [RR1.76 (0.64-4.83)]. Neonatal mortality rates decreased significantly in the predominantly non-Aboriginal communities and in the non-Aboriginal mother tongue group [RR0.78 (0.66-0.92)], and increased non-significantly for the First Nations mother tongue group [RR2.17 (0.71-6.62)]. Perinatal death rates increased for the First Nations mother tongue grouping in northern areas [RR2.19 (0.99-4.85)]. There was a disconcerting rise of some mortality outcomes for births to First Nations and Inuit mother tongue women and to women in predominantly First Nations and Inuit communities, in contrast to some improvements for births to non-Aboriginal mother tongue women and to women in predominantly non-Aboriginal communities in rural or northern Quebec, indicating a need for improving perinatal and neonatal health for Aboriginal populations in rural and northern regions.

  17. Temporal trends in Inuit, First Nations and non-Aboriginal birth outcomes in rural and northern Quebec

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabienne Simonet

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. The objective was to assess trends in Inuit, First Nations and non-Aboriginal birth outcomes in the rural and northern regions of Quebec. Study design and methods. In a birth cohort-based study of all births to residents of rural and northern Quebec from 1991 through 2000 (n = 177,193, we analyzed birth outcomes and infant mortality for births classified by maternal mother tongue (Inuit, First Nations or non-Aboriginal and by community type (predominantly First Nations, Inuit or non-Aboriginal. Results. From 1991–1995 to 1996–2000, there was a trend of increasing rates of preterm birth for all 6 study groups. In all rural and northern areas, low birth weight rates increased significantly only for the Inuit mother tongue group [RR1.45 (95% CI 1.05–2.01]. Stillbirth rates showed a non-significant increase for the Inuit mother tongue group [RR1.76 (0.64–4.83]. Neonatal mortality rates decreased significantly in the predominantly non-Aboriginal communities and in the non-Aboriginal mother tongue group [RR0.78 (0.66–0.92], and increased non-significantly for the First Nations mother tongue group [RR2.17 (0.71–6.62]. Perinatal death rates increased for the First Nations mother tongue grouping in northern areas [RR2.19 (0.99–4.85]. Conclusion. There was a disconcerting rise of some mortality outcomes for births to First Nations and Inuit mother tongue women and to women in predominantly First Nations and Inuit communities, in contrast to some improvements for births to non-Aboriginal mother tongue women and to women in predominantly non-Aboriginal communities in rural or northern Quebec, indicating a need for improving perinatal and neonatal health for Aboriginal populations in rural and northern regions.

  18. Temporal Trends in the Risk Profile of Patients Undergoing Outpatient Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Report from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry's CathPCI Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vora, Amit N; Dai, Dadi; Gurm, Hitinder; Amin, Amit P; Messenger, John C; Mahmud, Ehtisham; Mauri, Laura; Wang, Tracy Y; Roe, Matthew T; Curtis, Jeptha; Patel, Manesh R; Dauerman, Harold L; Peterson, Eric D; Rao, Sunil V

    2016-03-01

    Because of recent changes in criteria for coverage for inpatient hospital stays, most nonacute percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures are reimbursed on an outpatient basis regardless of underlying patient risk. Downstream effects of these changes on the risk profile of patients undergoing outpatient PCI have not been evaluated. Using the American College of Cardiology National Cardiovascular Data Registry's CathPCI Registry, we assessed temporal trends in risk profiles and rates of hospital admission among 999 279 patients undergoing PCI qualifying for outpatient reimbursement. We estimated mortality and bleeding risk using validated models from the registry. From 2009 to 2014, the proportion of outpatients not admitted to a hospital after PCI increased from 32.8% to 66.3% (Prisk for predicted mortality increased significantly from 17.0% to 19.8% during the study period (Prisk for mortality. Among patients undergoing PCI procedures that qualify for outpatient reimbursement, there has been a temporal decrease in postprocedure hospital admission. Concomitantly, the proportion of these outpatients at high risk for mortality has significantly increased over time. These data suggest that current reimbursement classification could be improved by incorporating patient risk to appropriately match the necessary resources to the needed level of care. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  19. Recent temporal trends in sleep duration, domain-specific sedentary behaviour and physical activity. A survey among 25-79-year-old Danish adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aadahl, Mette; Andreasen, Anne Helms; Hammer-Helmich, Lene; Buhelt, Lone; Jørgensen, Torben; Glümer, Charlotte

    2013-11-01

    Prevalence of sedentary behaviour is high in many countries, but little is known about temporal trends in sitting time. To examine temporal changes in sleep and domain-specific sedentary behaviour and moderate to vigorous leisure time physical activity (MVPA). Two cross-sectional population-based surveys of 25-79-year-old inhabitants were conducted in The Capital Region of Denmark in 2007 (N = 69.800, response rate 52.3%) and 2010 (N = 77.517, response rate 54.8%). Information on sedentary behaviour and physical activity was obtained from self-report questionnaire and sociodemographic information from central registers. Data were weighted for survey design and for non-response and were analysed by multiple regression analyses. In 2007, the entire survey population reported a mean daily sleeping duration of 7.4 hours, leisure time sitting of 3.4 hours per day, occupational sitting of 4.4 hours per day, MVPA of 0.87 hours per day and a total 24-hour energy expenditure of 40.12 METs per day. In 2010, duration of sleep was unaltered (p = 0.1), sedentary leisure time and sedentary work time had increased by 12.6 minutes (p work and during leisure time, but also on leisure time MVPA. As duration of sleep is unaltered findings suggest that low intensity physical activity may be displaced in everyday life.

  20. Trace elements in livers of great egret (Ardea alba) from the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region: a preliminary assessment of temporal trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Rita de Cassia A.; Saiki, Mitiko; Moreira, Edson G.; Oliveira, Paulo T.M.S.

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to assess the variation of trace element concentrations present in great egret livers during six years, from 2006 to 2011. The data were obtained in twenty six livers of great egrets from the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR). The elements Br, Co, Cs, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Rb, Se and Zn were determined by using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) and Cd and Hg by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS). Arithmetic means and standard deviations of element concentrations of the results obtained in each year were calculated for the samples collected in each year. Analysis of variance (ANOVA; α = 0.05) followed by Kruskal Wallis test was applied to examine if there are temporal differences in the element mean concentrations over time. In general, significant differences of element concentrations were not obtained. However, an increase in Cd and Mn concentrations in the recent years was observed which may indicate recent increase to these elements in environment. The preliminary data obtained suggests the continuation of this kind of study to better understand the temporal trends of trace elements in the aquatic environment of SPMR. (author)

  1. Trace elements in livers of great egret (Ardea alba) from the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region: a preliminary assessment of temporal trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Rita de Cassia A.; Saiki, Mitiko; Moreira, Edson G., E-mail: rcsilva@ipen.br, E-mail: mitiko@ipen.br, E-mail: emoreira@ipen.br, E-mail: poliver@usp.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Oliveira, Paulo T.M.S., E-mail: poliver@usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (IME/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Matematica e Estatistica

    2015-07-01

    This study aimed to assess the variation of trace element concentrations present in great egret livers during six years, from 2006 to 2011. The data were obtained in twenty six livers of great egrets from the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR). The elements Br, Co, Cs, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Rb, Se and Zn were determined by using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) and Cd and Hg by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS). Arithmetic means and standard deviations of element concentrations of the results obtained in each year were calculated for the samples collected in each year. Analysis of variance (ANOVA; α = 0.05) followed by Kruskal Wallis test was applied to examine if there are temporal differences in the element mean concentrations over time. In general, significant differences of element concentrations were not obtained. However, an increase in Cd and Mn concentrations in the recent years was observed which may indicate recent increase to these elements in environment. The preliminary data obtained suggests the continuation of this kind of study to better understand the temporal trends of trace elements in the aquatic environment of SPMR. (author)

  2. Temporal trends in concentrations of DBCP and nitrate in groundwater in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burow, K.R.; Dubrovsky, N.M.; Shelton, James L.

    2007-01-01

    Temporal monitoring of the pesticide 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP) and nitrate and indicators of mean groundwater age were used to evaluate the transport and fate of agricultural chemicals in groundwater and to predict the long-term effects in the regional aquifer system in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California. Twenty monitoring wells were installed on a transect along an approximate groundwater flow path. Concentrations of DBCP and nitrate in the wells were compared to concentrations in regional areal monitoring networks. DBCP persists at concentrations above the US Environmental Protection Agency's maximum contaminant level (MCL) at depths of nearly 40 m below the water table, more than 25 years after it was banned. Nitrate concentrations above the MCL reached depths of more than 20 m below the water table. Because of the intensive pumping and irrigation recharge, vertical flow paths are dominant. High concentrations (above MCLs) in the shallow part of the regional aquifer system will likely move deeper in the system, affecting both domestic and public-supply wells. The large fraction of old water (unaffected by agricultural chemicals) in deep monitoring wells suggests that it could take decades for concentrations to reach MCLs in deep, long-screened public-supply wells, however. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

  3. Mercury concentrations in king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) feathers at Crozet Islands (sub-Antarctic): temporal trend between 1966--1974 and 2000--2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheifler, Renaud; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Le Bohec, Céline; Crini, Nadia; Coeurdassier, Michaël; Badot, Pierre-Marie; Giraudoux, Patrick; Le Maho, Yvon

    2005-01-01

    Remote sub-Antarctic islands and their wildlife may be contaminated by mercury via atmospheric and oceanic currents. Because of mercury's high toxicity and its capacity to be biomagnified in marine food chains, top predators like seabirds may be threatened by secondary poisoning. The present study provides data regarding mercury concentrations in breast feathers sampled in 2000 and 2001 on king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) living at Crozet Islands. These contemporary concentrations were compared to those measured in feathers of king penguins sampled in the same colony between 1966 and 1974 and preserved in a museum (1970s sample). The average concentration of the contemporary sample is 1.98 microg g(-1) (dry mass) and is significantly different than the concentrations reported in some other penguin species. The concentration of the contemporary sample is significantly lower than the concentration of the 1970s sample (2.66 microg g(-1)). This suggests that mercury concentrations in southern hemisphere seabirds do not increase, which conflicts with the trends observed in the northern hemisphere. This difference in temporal trends between the northern and southern hemispheres usually is attributed mainly to a higher degree of pollutant emission in the northern hemisphere. Parameters that may explain the interspecies differences in mercury concentrations are discussed. These first results may constitute a basis for further ecotoxicological and/or biomonitoring studies of king penguins in these remote ecosystems.

  4. Temporal trends in genital warts among individuals covered by the public prescription drug insurance plan in the province of Quebec, Canada, from 1998 to 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steben, Marc; Ouhoummane, Najwa; Rodier, Caroline; Brassard, Paul

    2013-04-01

    We assessed temporal trend in the incidence and prevalence of genital warts (GWs) in the province of Quebec, Canada, between 1998 and 2007 as a baseline for future assessment of the impact of Quebec human papillomavirus vaccination program. Data on GWs were obtained from the linkage of the physician service claims and the public insurance drug plan databases. Genital warts were identified through a prescription of podofilox, a medical procedure code specific to GWs or a diagnosis code for viral warts followed by a prescription of imiquimod or fluorouracil within 2 weeks. An episode was considered incident if it was preceded by a 12-month interval period free of GWs care. During the study period, a total of 27,138 episodes of GWs occurred among 24,267 individuals. The age-standardized incidence rate increased over time in men and women. The highest incidence was observed in women aged 20 to 24 years (391.9/100,000) and in men aged 25 to 29 years (383.3/100,000). Similar trends in prevalence were observed. The incidence and prevalence of GWs has increased among the population covered by the public insurance drug plan in Quebec.

  5. Spatial and temporal trends in PCBs in sediment along the lower Rhône River, France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desmet, Marc; Mourier, Brice; Mahler, Barbara J.; Van Metre, Peter C.; Roux, Gwenaëlle; Persat, Henri; Lefèvre, Irène; Peretti, Annie

    2012-01-01

    Despite increasingly strict control of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) releases in France since the mid-1970s, PCB contamination of fish recently has emerged as a major concern in the lower Rhône River basin. We measured PCB concentrations in Rhône sediment to evaluate the effects of PCB releases from major urban and industrial areas, sediment redistribution by large floods, and regulatory controls on PCB trends from 1970 to present. Profiles of PCBs (the sum of seven indicator PCB congeners) were reconstructed from sediment cores collected from an off-river rural reference site and from three depositional areas along the Rhône upstream and downstream from the city of Lyon, France. Core chronology was determined from radionuclide profiles and flood deposits. PCB concentrations increased progressively in the downstream direction, and reached a maximum concentration in 1991 of 281 μg/kg at the most downstream site. At the rural reference site and at the upstream Rhône site, PCB concentrations peaked in the 1970s (maximum concentration of 13 and 78 μg/kg, respectively) and have decreased exponentially since then. PCB concentrations in the middle and downstream cores were elevated into the early 1990s, decreased very rapidly until 2000, and since then have remained relatively stable. Congener profiles for three time windows (1965–80, 1986–93, and 2000–08) were similar in the three sediment cores from the Rhône and different from those at the rural reference site. The results indicate that permitted discharges from a hazardous-waste treatment facility upstream from Lyon might have contributed to high concentrations into the 1980-90s, but that industrial discharges from the greater Lyon area and tributaries to the Rhône near Lyon have had a greater contribution since the 1990s. There is little indication that PCB concentration in sediments downstream from Lyon will decrease over at least the short term. -- Highlights: ►We reconstructed trends in PCBs in

  6. Temporal trends in health-related quality of life after stroke: analysis from the South London Stroke Register 1995-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldenkar, Anita; Crichton, Siobhan; Douiri, Abdel; Rudd, Anthony G; Wolfe, Charles D A; Chen, Ruoling

    2014-08-01

    Survival after stroke has dramatically increased in the last two decades as the treatment of stroke has improved. However, time-trend analyses of health-related quality of life in stroke patients covering this time period are still not well investigated. The study aims to examine temporal trends in mental and physical health-related quality of life of stroke survivors between the period of 1995 and 2011. First in a lifetime strokes were registered in the South London Stroke Register between 1995 and 2011. Using the Short Form-12 Health Survey, trends in self-reported health-related quality of life at one-year after stroke were assessed over a 17-year period using linear regression, adjusting for socio-demographics, risk factors, and case-mix variables. Analyses stratifying by age, gender, race-ethnicity, and functional impairment were also performed. The overall trends of mental and physical health-related quality of life scores at one-year after stroke remained relatively unchanged over the period 1995-2011. However, mental health-related quality of life scores significantly improved between the period of 1995-2007 [β = 0·94 (95% CI; 0·15 to 1·74), P = 0·02], after which scores deteriorated [β = -2·02 (-3·82 to -0·22), P = 0·03]. Physical health-related quality of life scores remained stable until 2007, after which scores declined [β = -1·63 (-3·25 to -0·01), P = 0·05]. Despite declining health-related quality of life trends within the general population, stroke survivors' overall health-related quality of life remained unchanged, possibly due to lower expectations of health among stroke survivors. However, in recent years there has been a significant unexplained decline in both physical and mental health-related quality of life, suggesting that despite stroke policy aims to improve health-related quality of life, more needs to be done to target this decline. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2014 World

  7. Temporal trend of bis(4-chlorophenyl) sulfone, methylsulfonyl-DDE and -PCBs in Baltic guillemot (Uria aalge) egg 1971-2001 - A comparison to 4,4'-DDE and PCB trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joerundsdottir, Hroenn; Norstroem, Karin; Olsson, Mats; Hai, P.-T.; Huehnerfuss, Heinrich; Bignert, Anders; Bergman, Ake

    2006-01-01

    The dynamics of organohalogen contaminants and their metabolites are best studied over time by analysis of biota at high trophic levels. In this study, time trends, 1971-2001, of bis(4-chlorophenyl) sulfone (BCPS) and of methylsulfonyl-substituted metabolites of PCBs and 4,4'-DDE, were investigated in eggs of guillemot (Uria aalge) hatching in the Baltic Proper. Temporal trends of PCBs, trans-nonachlor, β-HCH, 4,4'-DDT, and 4,4'-DDE were also assessed. Tris(4-chlorophenyl) methane (TCPMe), a 4,4'-DDT by-product, was detected in the eggs. The concentration of BCPS ranged between 2.6-0.76 μg/g on a lipid weight basis over the three decades and showed a significant 1.6% annual decrease. Three metabolites of PCBs, i.e. 3'-MeSO 2 -CB101, 4'-MeSO 2 -CB101 and 4-MeSO 2 -CB149, were quantified in all samples over time and showed an annual decrease of approximately 3% compared to MeSO 2 -DDE with a decrease of 8.9%. The methylsulfonyl-PCB and -DDE metabolites are eliminated more slowly than the persistent PCB congeners and 4,4'-DDE. Trans-nonachlor decreases by 16% compared to 19% and 9% for 4,4'-DDT and β-HCH, respectively. The concentration of TCPMe in guillemot decreased by 8.2% per year. A linear relationship was found between TCPMe and 4,4'-DDE concentrations which supports the theory that TCPMe has an origin as a contaminant in commercial 4,4'-DDT products. The very slow decrease in BCPS concentrations is notable and remains to be explained. BCPS is still present at rather high concentrations in the guillemot eggs. The enantiomeric fraction varied between 0.27 and 0.67 which indicates less of a specific retention of the chiral MeSO 2 -PCBs in guillemot eggs than in grey seal tissues, for example. Independent of meta- or para-substitution of the sulfone group, the most accumulative atropisomer of each of four MeSO 2 -PCB pairs has been assigned an absolute R structure. - The temporal trend of the plastic monomer bis(4-chlorophenyl) sulfone (BCPS) showed that it was

  8. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kierkegaard, A; Bignert, A; Sellström, U; Olsson, M; Asplund, L; Jansson, B; De Wit, C A

    2004-07-01

    Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s (Sigma5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location.

  9. A comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants from iron and steel industry in China: Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kun; Tian, Hezhong; Hua, Shenbing; Zhu, Chuanyong; Gao, Jiajia; Xue, Yifeng; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yong; Zhou, Junrui

    2016-07-15

    China has become the largest producer of iron and steel throughout the world since 1996. However, as an energy-and-pollution intensive manufacturing sector, a detailed comprehensive emission inventory of air pollutants for iron and steel industry of China is still not available. To obtain and better understand the temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of typical hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emissions from iron and steel production in China, a comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants, including size segregated particulate matter (TSP/PM10/PM2.5), gaseous pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO), heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Ni etc.), as well as the more dangerous PCDD/Fs, is established with the unit-based annual activity, specific dynamic emission factors for the historical period of 1978-2011, and the future potential trends till to 2050 are forecasted by using scenario analysis. Our results show that emissions of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter have experienced a gradual increase tendency since 2000, while emissions of priority-controlled heavy metals (Hg, Pb, As, Cd, Cr, and Ni) have exhibited a short-term fluctuation during the period of 1990 to 2005. With regard to the spatial distribution of HAPs emissions in base year 2011, Bohai economic circle is identified as the top emission intensity region where iron and steel smelting plants are densely built; within iron and steel industry, blast furnaces contribute the majority of PM emissions, sinter plants account for most of gaseous pollutants and the majority of PCDD/Fs, whereas steel making processes are responsible for the majority of heavy metal emissions. Moreover, comparisons of future emission trends under three scenarios indicate that advanced technologies and integrated whole process management strategies are in great need to further diminish various hazardous air pollutants from iron and steel industry in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  10. Burying dogs in ancient Cis-Baikal, Siberia: temporal trends and relationships with human diet and subsistence practices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert J Losey

    Full Text Available The first objective of this study is to examine temporal patterns in ancient dog burials in the Lake Baikal region of Eastern Siberia. The second objective is to determine if the practice of dog burial here can be correlated with patterns in human subsistence practices, in particular a reliance on terrestrial mammals. Direct radiocarbon dating of a suite of the region's dog remains indicates that these animals were given burial only during periods in which human burials were common. Dog burials of any kind were most common during the Early Neolithic (∼7-8000 B.P., and rare during all other time periods. Further, only foraging groups seem to have buried canids in this region, as pastoralist habitation sites and cemeteries generally lack dog interments, with the exception of sacrificed animals. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope data indicate that dogs were only buried where and when human diets were relatively rich in aquatic foods, which here most likely included river and lake fish and Baikal seal (Phoca sibirica. Generally, human and dog diets appear to have been similar across the study subregions, and this is important for interpreting their radiocarbon dates, and comparing them to those obtained on the region's human remains, both of which likely carry a freshwater old carbon bias. Slight offsets were observed in the isotope values of dogs and humans in our samples, particularly where both have diets rich in aquatic fauna. This may result from dietary differences between people and their dogs, perhaps due to consuming fish of different sizes, or even different tissues from the same aquatic fauna. This paper also provides a first glimpse of the DNA of ancient canids in Northeast Asia.

  11. Burying dogs in ancient Cis-Baikal, Siberia: temporal trends and relationships with human diet and subsistence practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losey, Robert J; Garvie-Lok, Sandra; Leonard, Jennifer A; Katzenberg, M Anne; Germonpré, Mietje; Nomokonova, Tatiana; Sablin, Mikhail V; Goriunova, Olga I; Berdnikova, Natalia E; Savel'ev, Nikolai A

    2013-01-01

    The first objective of this study is to examine temporal patterns in ancient dog burials in the Lake Baikal region of Eastern Siberia. The second objective is to determine if the practice of dog burial here can be correlated with patterns in human subsistence practices, in particular a reliance on terrestrial mammals. Direct radiocarbon dating of a suite of the region's dog remains indicates that these animals were given burial only during periods in which human burials were common. Dog burials of any kind were most common during the Early Neolithic (∼7-8000 B.P.), and rare during all other time periods. Further, only foraging groups seem to have buried canids in this region, as pastoralist habitation sites and cemeteries generally lack dog interments, with the exception of sacrificed animals. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope data indicate that dogs were only buried where and when human diets were relatively rich in aquatic foods, which here most likely included river and lake fish and Baikal seal (Phoca sibirica). Generally, human and dog diets appear to have been similar across the study subregions, and this is important for interpreting their radiocarbon dates, and comparing them to those obtained on the region's human remains, both of which likely carry a freshwater old carbon bias. Slight offsets were observed in the isotope values of dogs and humans in our samples, particularly where both have diets rich in aquatic fauna. This may result from dietary differences between people and their dogs, perhaps due to consuming fish of different sizes, or even different tissues from the same aquatic fauna. This paper also provides a first glimpse of the DNA of ancient canids in Northeast Asia.

  12. An innovative statistical approach for analysing non-continuous variables in environmental monitoring: assessing temporal trends of TBT pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, José António; Galante-Oliveira, Susana; Barroso, Carlos

    2011-03-01

    The current work presents an innovative statistical approach to model ordinal variables in environmental monitoring studies. An ordinal variable has values that can only be compared as "less", "equal" or "greater" and it is not possible to have information about the size of the difference between two particular values. The example of ordinal variable under this study is the vas deferens sequence (VDS) used in imposex (superimposition of male sexual characters onto prosobranch females) field assessment programmes for monitoring tributyltin (TBT) pollution. The statistical methodology presented here is the ordered logit regression model. It assumes that the VDS is an ordinal variable whose values match up a process of imposex development that can be considered continuous in both biological and statistical senses and can be described by a latent non-observable continuous variable. This model was applied to the case study of Nucella lapillus imposex monitoring surveys conducted in the Portuguese coast between 2003 and 2008 to evaluate the temporal evolution of TBT pollution in this country. In order to produce more reliable conclusions, the proposed model includes covariates that may influence the imposex response besides TBT (e.g. the shell size). The model also provides an analysis of the environmental risk associated to TBT pollution by estimating the probability of the occurrence of females with VDS ≥ 2 in each year, according to OSPAR criteria. We consider that the proposed application of this statistical methodology has a great potential in environmental monitoring whenever there is the need to model variables that can only be assessed through an ordinal scale of values.

  13. Temporal trends and epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus surgical site infection in the Swiss surveillance network: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, M; Aghayev, E; Troillet, N; Eisenring, M-C; Kuster, S P; Widmer, A F; Harbarth, S

    2018-02-01

    Staphylococcus aureus is the leading pathogen in surgical site infections (SSI). To explore trends and risk factors associated with S. aureus SSI. Risk factors for monomicrobial S. aureus SSI were identified from the Swiss multi-centre SSI surveillance system using multi-variate logistic regression. Both in-hospital and postdischarge SSI were identified using standardized definitions. Over a six-year period, data were collected on 229,765 surgical patients, of whom 499 (0.22%) developed monomicrobial S. aureus SSI; 459 (92.0%) and 40 (8.0%) were due to meticillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) and meticillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA), respectively. There was a significant decrease in the rate of MSSA SSI (P = 0.007), but not in the rate of MRSA SSI (P = 0.70). Independent protective factors for S. aureus SSI were older age [≥75 years vs <50 years: odds ratio (OR) 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44-0.83], laparoscopy/minimally invasive surgery (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.50-0.92), non-clean surgery [OR 0.78 (per increase in wound contamination class), 95% CI 0.64-0.94] and correct timing of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98). Independent risk factors were male sex (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.14-1.66), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists' score (per one-point increment: OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.13-1.51), re-operation for non-infectious reasons (OR 4.59, 95% CI 3.59-5.87) and procedure type: cardiac surgery, laminectomy, and hip or knee arthroplasty had two-to nine-fold increased odds of S. aureus SSI compared with other procedures. SSI due to S. aureus are decreasing and becoming rare events in Switzerland. High-risk procedures that may benefit from specific preventive measures were identified. Unfortunately, many of the independent risk factors are not easily modifiable. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. TREND MECHANISMS IN CONTEMPORARY FASHION

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Explores a spatial approach to trend mechanisms that is argued to be more contemporary than the traditional temporal appraoch.......Explores a spatial approach to trend mechanisms that is argued to be more contemporary than the traditional temporal appraoch....

  15. Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macdonald, R.W.; Harner, T.; Fyfe, J.

    2005-01-01

    possibility, presently difficult to predict, is combination of immune suppression together with expanding ranges of disease vectors. Finally, biotransport through migratory species is exceptionally vulnerable to changes in migration strength or in migration pathway-in the Arctic, change in the distribution of ice and temperature may already have caused such changes. Hydrocarbons, which tend to impact surfaces, will be mostly affected by change in the ice climate (distribution and drift tracks). Perhaps the most dramatic changes will occur because our view of the Arctic Ocean will change as it becomes more amenable to transport, tourism and mineral exploration on the shelves. Radionuclides have tended not to produce a radiological problem in the Arctic; nevertheless one pathway, the ice, remains a risk because it can accrue, concentrate and transport radio-contaminated sediments. This pathway is sensitive to where ice is produced, what the transport pathways of ice are, and where ice is finally melted-all strong candidates for change during the coming century. The changes that have already occurred in the Arctic and those that are projected to occur have an effect on contaminant time series including direct measurements (air, water, biota) or proxies (sediment cores, ice cores, archive material). Although these 'system' changes can alter the flux and concentrations at given sites in a number of obvious ways, they have been all but ignored in the interpretation of such time series. To understand properly what trends mean, especially in complex 'recorders' such as seals, walrus and polar bears, demands a more thorough approach to time series by collecting data in a number of media coherently. Presently, a major reservoir for contaminants and the one most directly connected to biological uptake in species at greatest risk-the ocean-practically lacks such time series

  16. Persistent organochlorine contaminants in eggs of northern goshawk and Eurasian buzzard from northeastern Spain: temporal trends related to changes in the diet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manosa, Santi; Mateo, Rafael; Freixa, Cristina; Guitart, Raimon

    2003-01-01

    Diet composition must be considered in programs designed to detect temporal changes in chemical contamination. - Persistent organochlorine compounds (pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls) were determined in 24 northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) and eight Eurasian buzzard (Buteo buteo) samples of eggs collected between 1988 and 1999 in La Segarra (northeast Spain), in order to evaluate the changes in exposure and detrimental effects during this period. In the study area, both species exhibited similar levels of contamination, which may be related to their similar diet, mainly based on European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in terms of biomass. The buzzard showed contamination levels similar to those found in other Spanish areas, but the levels found in the goshawk were much lower. The shell index in goshawk eggs was inversely correlated to concentration of p,p'-DDE. In late eighties, the concentrations of p,p'-DDE and heptachlor-epoxide in goshawk eggs were positively correlated to the biomass percentage of passeriforms in the diet. In goshawk samples, a decline in HCB concentration in the 1990s as compared to the 1980s was detected. Surprisingly, p,p'-DDE concentrations did not decline, as could be expected from the ban on DDT use. On the contrary, the highest p,p'-DDE concentrations were detected in some samples from the nineties, which also showed the lowest shell indices. This may be related to a severe reduction of rabbit population after 1989 that produced an increase in the consumption of passeriformes, which are known to accumulate higher levels of organochlorine compounds. Our study suggests that monitoring programs aiming to detect temporal trends in chemical contamination should take into account changes in diet composition before any conclusion can be drawn

  17. Persistent organochlorine contaminants in eggs of northern goshawk and Eurasian buzzard from northeastern Spain: temporal trends related to changes in the diet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manosa, Santi; Mateo, Rafael; Freixa, Cristina; Guitart, Raimon

    2003-04-01

    Diet composition must be considered in programs designed to detect temporal changes in chemical contamination. - Persistent organochlorine compounds (pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls) were determined in 24 northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) and eight Eurasian buzzard (Buteo buteo) samples of eggs collected between 1988 and 1999 in La Segarra (northeast Spain), in order to evaluate the changes in exposure and detrimental effects during this period. In the study area, both species exhibited similar levels of contamination, which may be related to their similar diet, mainly based on European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in terms of biomass. The buzzard showed contamination levels similar to those found in other Spanish areas, but the levels found in the goshawk were much lower. The shell index in goshawk eggs was inversely correlated to concentration of p,p'-DDE. In late eighties, the concentrations of p,p'-DDE and heptachlor-epoxide in goshawk eggs were positively correlated to the biomass percentage of passeriforms in the diet. In goshawk samples, a decline in HCB concentration in the 1990s as compared to the 1980s was detected. Surprisingly, p,p'-DDE concentrations did not decline, as could be expected from the ban on DDT use. On the contrary, the highest p,p'-DDE concentrations were detected in some samples from the nineties, which also showed the lowest shell indices. This may be related to a severe reduction of rabbit population after 1989 that produced an increase in the consumption of passeriformes, which are known to accumulate higher levels of organochlorine compounds. Our study suggests that monitoring programs aiming to detect temporal trends in chemical contamination should take into account changes in diet composition before any conclusion can be drawn.

  18. Temporal Trends of the Clinical, Resource Use and Outcome Attributes of ICU-Managed Candidemia Hospitalizations: A Population-Level Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Lavi

    2016-04-01

    There are mixed findings on the longitudinal patterns of the incidence of intensive care unit (ICU)-managed candidemia, with scarcity of reports on the corresponding evolving patterns of patients' clinical characteristics and outcomes. No population-level data were reported on the temporal trends of the attributes, care and outcomes of ICU-managed adults with candidemia. The Texas Inpatient Public Use Data File was used to identify hospitalizations aged 18 years or older with a diagnosis of candidemia and ICU admission (C-ICU hospitalizations) between 2001 and 2010. Temporal trends of the demographics, clinical features, use of healthcare resources, and short-term outcomes were examined. Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) were derived. C-ICU hospitalizations (n = 7,552) became (AAPC) increasingly younger (age ≥ 65 years: -1.0%/year). The Charslon comorbidity index rose 4.2%/year, while the mean number of organ failures (OFs) increased by 8.2%/year, with a fast rise in the rate of those developing ≥ 3 OFs (+15.5%/year). Between 2001 and 2010, there was no significant change in utilization of mechanical ventilation and new hemodialysis among C-ICU hospitalizations with reported respiratory and renal failures (68.9% vs. 73.3%, P = 0.3653 and 15.5% vs. 21.8%, P = 0.8589, respectively). Hospital length of stay or total hospital charges remained unchanged during study period. Hospital mortality decreased between 2001 and 2010 from 39.3% to 23.8% (-5.2%/year). The majority of hospital survivors (61.6%) were discharged to another facility, and increasingly to long-term acute care hospitals, with routine home discharge decreasing to 11% by 2010. C-ICU hospitalizations demonstrated increasing comorbidity burden and rising development of OF, and matching rise in use of selected life-support interventions, though with unchanged in-hospital fiscal impact. There has been marked decrease in hospital mortality, but survivors had substantial residual morbidity with the

  19. Temporal trends of hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and detection of two novel flame retardants in marine mammals from Hong Kong, South China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, James C W; Lau, Ridge K F; Murphy, Margaret B; Lam, Paul K S

    2009-09-15

    Concentrations of hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and three novel flame retardants, namely2-ethylhexyl 2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (TBB), bis-(2-ethylhexyl)-tetrabromophthalate (TBPH), and hexachlorocyclopentadienyldibromocyclooctane (HCDBCO), were determined in blubber samples of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) and finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides). The levels of HBCDs and PBDEs in cetacean samples ranged from 4.1 to 519 and 103 to 51,100 ng/g lw, respectively. A significant increasing trend of SigmaHBCDs was observed in dolphin samples from 1997 to 2007 with an estimated annual rate of 5%, whereas no significant temporal trends of SigmaPBDEs appeared over the sampling period. This pattern may be attributed to the increasing usage of HBCDs following the restriction/voluntary withdrawal of the production and use of PBDE commercial mixtures in several countries. HCDBCO was not found in the blubber samples. This is the first report of the presence of TBB and TBPH, two new flame retardants that have previously been identified in house dust from the U.S., in marine mammals; concentrations of these compounds in dolphins and porpoises ranged from the instrumental detection limit (IDL) (<0.04) to 70 and IDL (<0.04) to 3859 ng/g lw, respectively. Levels of TBPH were comparable to SigmaHBCDs in porpoise samples. The presence of these novel flame retardants in top-trophic-level marine organisms raises concern about their release into the environment and indicates the need for further monitoring of these compounds in other environmental matrices.

  20. Increasing socioeconomic gap between the young and old: temporal trends in health and overall deprivation in England by age, sex, urbanity and ethnicity, 2004-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Mamas, Mamas A; van Marwijk, Harm; Buchan, Iain; Ryan, Andrew M; Doran, Tim

    2018-07-01

    At a low geographical level, little is known about the associations between population characteristics and deprivation, and their trends, which would be directly affected by the house market, labour pressures and government policies. We describe temporal trends in health and overall deprivation in England by age, sex, urbanity and ethnicity. Repeated cross-sectional whole population study for England, 2004-2015, at a low geographical level (average 1500 residents). We calculated weighted medians of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) for each subgroup of interest. Over time, we observed increases in relative deprivation for people aged under 30, and aged 30-59, while median deprivation decreased for those aged 60 or over. Subgroup analyses indicated that relative overall deprivation was consistently higher for young adults (aged 20-29) and infants (aged 0-4), with increases in deprivation for the latter. Levels of overall deprivation in 2004 greatly varied by ethnicity, with the lowest levels observed for White British and the highest for Blacks. Over time, small reductions were observed in the deprivation gap between White British and all other ethnic groups. Findings were consistent across overall IMD and its health and disability subdomain, but large regional variability was also observed. Government policies, the financial crisis of 2008, education funding and the increasing cost of houses relative to real wages are important parameters in interpreting our findings. Socioeconomic deprivation is an important determinant of health and the inequalities this work highlights may have significant implications for future fiscal and healthcare policy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  1. The long-term spatial-temporal trends and burden of esophageal cancer in one high-risk area: A population-registered study in Feicheng, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiubin Sun

    Full Text Available Feicheng County is a high-risk area for esophageal cancer in Shandong province, China. It is important to determine the long-term spatio-temporal trends in epidemiological characteristics and the burden of esophageal cancer, especially since the implementation of the national esophageal cancer screening program for early detection and treatment in 2005.The data collected in Feicheng County from 2001 to 2012 was extracted from the whole-population cancer registry system. The incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY and changing trends in esophageal cancer according to age and sex were calculated and described.The incidence rate of esophageal cancer in Feicheng was consistently high, and increased significantly for male, but not for female from 2001 to 2012, according to the joinpoint regression analysis. The highest and lowest yearly crude incidence rates were 160.78 and 95.97 per 100000 for males, and 81.36 and 52.17 per 100000 for females. The highest and lowest crude yearly mortality rates were 122.26 and 94.40 per 100000 for males, and 60.75 and 49.35 per 100000for females. Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma was the main pathology type and the tumor location changed significantly from 2001 to 2012. Overall, the DALY remained roughly stable and was estimated as 11.50 for males and 4.90 for females per 1000 people. The burden was mainly caused by premature death. There is an obvious spatial pattern in the distribution of incidence density and burden.Esophageal cancer remains a public health issue in Feicheng County with a high incidence, mortality and disease burden. The incidence and burden have obvious spatial heterogeneity, and further studies should be conducted to identify geographical risk factors for precise local prevention and control measures.

  2. No increase in the incidence of acute kidney injury in a population-based annual temporal trends epidemiology study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashani, Kianoush; Shao, Min; Li, Guangxi; Williams, Amy W; Rule, Andrew D; Kremers, Walter K; Malinchoc, Michael; Gajic, Ognjen; Lieske, John C

    2017-09-01

    Recent literature suggests an increase in the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI). We evaluated population-based trends of AKI over the course of nine years, using a validated electronic health record tool to detect AKI. All adult residents (18 years of age and older) of Olmsted County, Minnesota (MN), admitted to the Mayo Clinic Hospital between 2006 and 2014 were included. The incidence rate of AKI was calculated and temporal trends in the annual AKI incident rates assessed. During the nine-year study period, 10,283, and 41,847 patients were admitted to the intensive care unit or general ward, with 1,740 and 2,811 developing AKI, respectively. The unadjusted incidence rates were 186 and 287 per 100,000 person years in 2006 and reached 179 and 317 per 100,000 person years in 2014. Following adjustment for age and sex, there was no significant change in the annual AKI incidence rate during the study period with a Relative Risk of 0.99 per year (95% confidence interval 0.97-1.01) for intensive care unit patients and 0.993 per year (0.98-1.01) for the general ward patients. Similar results were obtained when the ICD-9 codes or administrative data for dialysis-requiring AKI was utilized to determine incident cases. Thus, despite the current literature that suggests an epidemic of AKI, we found that after adjusting for age and sex the incidence of AKI in the general population remained relatively stable over the last decade. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Trends in spatio-temporal dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis cases in a highly-endemic focus of Bihar, India: an investigation based on GIS tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, Rakesh; Kesari, Shreekant; Kumar, Vijay; Das, Pradeep

    2018-04-02

    Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Bihar State (India) continues to be endemic, despite the existence of effective treatment and a vector control program to control disease morbidity. A clear understanding of spatio-temporal distribution of VL may improve surveillance and control implementation. This study explored the trends in spatio-temporal dynamics of VL endemicity at a meso-scale level in Vaishali District, based on geographical information systems (GIS) tools and spatial statistical analysis. A GIS database was used to integrate the VL case data from the study area between 2009 and 2014. All cases were spatially linked at a meso-scale level. Geospatial techniques, such as GIS-layer overlaying and mapping, were employed to visualize and detect the spatio-temporal patterns of a VL endemic outbreak across the district. The spatial statistic Moran's I Index (Moran's I) was used to simultaneously evaluate spatial-correlation between endemic villages and the spatial distribution patterns based on both the village location and the case incidence rate (CIR). Descriptive statistics such as mean, standard error, confidence intervals and percentages were used to summarize the VL case data. There were 624 endemic villages with 2719 (average 906 cases/year) VL cases during 2012-2014. The Moran's I revealed a cluster pattern (P < 0.05) of CIR distribution at the meso-scale level. On average, 68 villages were newly-endemic each year. Of which 93.1% of villages' endemicity were found to have occurred on the peripheries of the previous year endemic villages. The mean CIR of the endemic villages that were peripheral to the following year newly-endemic villages, compared to all endemic villages of the same year, was higher (P < 0.05). The results show that the VL endemicity of new villages tends to occur on the periphery of villages endemic in the previous year. High-CIR plays a major role in the spatial dispersion of the VL cases between non-endemic and endemic villages

  4. Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery-independent time surveys: A case study based on gill nets set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleyes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

    2011-01-01

    Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

  5. Temporal trends in serum concentrations of polychlorinated dioxins, furans, and PCBs among adult women living in Chapaevsk, Russia: a longitudinal study from 2000 to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns Jane S

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The present study assessed the temporal trend in serum concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, and biphenyls (PCBs among residents of a Russian town where levels of these chemicals are elevated due to prior industrial activity. Methods Two serum samples were collected from eight adult women (in 2000 and 2009, and analyzed with gas chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry. Results The average total toxic equivalency (TEQ decreased by 30% (from 36 to 25 pg/g lipid, and the average sum of PCB congeners decreased by 19% (from 291 to 211 ng/g lipid. Total TEQs decreased for seven of the eight women, and the sum of PCBs decreased for six of eight women. During this nine year period, larger decreases in serum TEQs and PCBs were found in women with greater increases in body mass index. Conclusions This study provides suggestive evidence that average serum concentrations of dioxins, furans, and PCBs are decreasing over time among residents of this town.

  6. Explaining the evaporation paradox in Jiangxi Province of China: Spatial distribution and temporal trends in potential evapotranspiration of Jiangxi Province from 1961 to 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianghui Lu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Evaporation acts as an important component and a key control factor in land hydrological processes. In order to analyze the trend of change on potential evapotranspiration from 1961 to 2013 and to discuss the existence of the evaporation paradox in Jiangxi province, China, monthly meteorological data spanning the years 1961–2013 were analyzed in this study, where the data were collected from 15 national meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province. The Penman–Monteith equation was employed to compute the potential evapotranspiration (ET0. Spatial interpolation and data mining technology were used to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of ET0 and air temperature, with the effort to explain the evaporation paradox. By solving the total differential and the partial derivatives coefficients of the independent variables in Penman–Monteith equation, the cause of the paradox was quantitatively evaluated. The results showed that the annual ET0 had been decreasing significantly in Jiangxi Province since 1979, whereas the air temperature had been rising significantly, presenting the evaporation paradox. The decreases in sunshine duration and wind speed reduced ET0 by 0.207 mm and 0.060 mm, respectively, accounting for 92.3% and 26.7% of the total ET0, respectively. It is concluded that sunshine duration and wind speed are the main causes to the decrease in potential evapotranspiration in Jiangxi Province.

  7. Emission Changes Dwarf the Influence of Feeding Habits on Temporal Trends of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in Two Arctic Top Predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Routti, Heli; Aars, Jon; Fuglei, Eva; Hanssen, Linda; Lone, Karen; Polder, Anuschka; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Tartu, Sabrina; Welker, Jeffrey M; Yoccoz, Nigel G

    2017-10-17

    We monitored concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in relation to climate-associated changes in feeding habits and food availability in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) (192 plasma and 113 liver samples, respectively) sampled from Svalbard, Norway, during 1997-2014. PFASs concentrations became greater with increasing dietary trophic level, as bears and foxes consumed more marine as opposed to terrestrial food, and as the availability of sea ice habitat increased. Long-chained perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) in arctic foxes decreased with availability of reindeer carcasses. The ∼9-14% yearly decline of C 6-8 perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs) following the cease in C 6-8 PFSA precursor production in 2001 indicates that the peak exposure was mainly a result of atmospheric transport of the volatile precursors. However, the stable PFSA concentrations since 2009-2010 suggest that Svalbard biota is still exposed to ocean-transported PFSAs. Long-chain ocean-transported PFCAs increased 2-4% per year and the increase in C 12-14 PFCAs in polar bears tended to level off since ∼2009. Emerging short-chain PFASs showed no temporal changes. Climate-related changes in feeding habits and food availability moderately affected PFAS trends. Our results indicate that PFAS concentrations in polar bears and arctic foxes are mainly affected by emissions.

  8. Spatial and temporal trends of short- and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins in sediments off the urbanized coastal zones in China and Japan: A comparison study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Lixi; Lam, James C W; Horii, Yuichi; Li, Xiaolin; Chen, Weifang; Qiu, Jian-Wen; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Yamazaki, Eriko; Yamashita, Nobuyoshi; Lam, Paul K S

    2017-05-01

    To examine the impacts of urbanization and industrialization on the coastal environment, and assess the effectiveness of control measures on the contamination by chlorinated paraffins (CPs) in East Asia, surface and core sediments were sampled from the urbanized coastal zones in China and Japan (i.e., Pearl River Delta (PRD), Hong Kong waters and Tokyo Bay) and analyzed for short-chain (SCCPs) and medium-chain CPs (MCCPs). Much higher concentrations of CPs were found in the industrialized PRD than in adjacent Hong Kong waters. Significant correlation between CP concentration and population density in the coastal district of Hong Kong was observed (r 2  = 0.72 for SCCPs and 0.55 for MCCPs, p chain groups within SCCPs in the PRD than in Hong Kong waters and Tokyo Bay implied the effect of industrialization. Comparison of temporal trends between Hong Kong outer harbor with Tokyo Bay shows the striking difference in historical deposition of CPs under different regulatory situations in China and Japan. For the first time, the declining CP concentrations in Tokyo Bay, Japan, attest to the effectiveness of emissions controls. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Temporal trend in the levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emitted in a big tire landfill fire in Spain: Risk assessment for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovira, Joaquim; Domínguez-Morueco, Noelia; Nadal, Martí; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2018-02-23

    In May 2016, a big fire occurred in an illegal landfill placed in Seseña (Toledo, Spain), where between 70,000 and 90,000 tons of tires had been accumulated during years. Just after the fire, and because of the increase of airborne PAHs, we found that cancer risks for the population living in the neighborhood of the landfill were 3-5 times higher than for the rest of inhabitants of Seseña. Some months after our initial (June 2016) study, two sampling campaigns (December 2016 and May 2017) were performed to assess the temporal trends of the environmental levels of PAHs, as well as to reassure that these chemicals did not pose any risk for the human health of Seseña inhabitants. In soils, the total concentrations of the 16 PAHs (December 2016), as well as the sum of the seven carcinogenic PAHs, showed values between 8.5 and 94.7 ng g -1 and between 1.0 and 42.3 ng g -1 , respectively. In May 2017, a significant decrease (between 4 and 38 times) in the levels of PAHs in air was observed, with total concentrations ranging between 3.49 and 5.06 ng m -3 . One year after the fire, the cancer risk at different zones of Seseña was similar, being lower than that found in June 2016, and negligible according to national and international agencies.

  10. Temporal Trends in Fertility Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Martin Blomberg; Priskorn, Lærke; Jensen, Tina Kold

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Increasing age at first childbirth has been suggested to increase the risk for infertility. Our objective is to determine whether women above thirty years of age historically have been able to sustain fertility rates above replacement level. DESIGN: A descriptive nationwide Danish study...... to determine total and age specific fertility rates. RESULTS: Total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 4.1 to 1.8 children per woman and age specific fertility also decreased from 1901 to 2014. Women aged 30-34, 35-39 or 40-44 years in the first decade of the 20th century had higher fertility rates than...... for 10% of TFR in 1901 compared with 4% in 2014 despite usage of assisted reproduction. CONCLUSION: This nationwide study shows that women above 30 years of age historically have been able to sustain fertility rates above replacement level. This implies that other factors besides age are strong...

  11. Levels and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) from Svalbard in relation to dietary habits and food availability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersen, Martin S. [Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, NO-9296 Tromsø (Norway); Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, NO-9037 Tromsø (Norway); Fuglei, Eva; König, Max [Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, NO-9296 Tromsø (Norway); Lipasti, Inka [Department of Biology, University of Eastern Finland, FI-80101 Joensuu (Finland); Pedersen, Åshild Ø. [Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, NO-9296 Tromsø (Norway); Polder, Anuschka [Department of Food Safety and Infection Biology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås (Norway); Yoccoz, Nigel G. [Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, NO-9037 Tromsø (Norway); Routti, Heli, E-mail: heli.routti@npolar.no [Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, NO-9296 Tromsø (Norway)

    2015-04-01

    Temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) from Svalbard, Norway, were investigated in relation to feeding habits and seasonal food availability. Arctic foxes from Svalbard forage in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems and the availability of their food items are impacted by climatic variability. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorinated pesticides (OCPs) and brominated flame retardants (polybrominated diphenyl ethers [PBDEs] and hexabromocyclododecane [HBCDD]) were analyzed in the liver of 141 arctic foxes collected between 1997 and 2013. Stable carbon isotope values (δ{sup 13}C) were used as a proxy for feeding on marine versus terrestrial prey. The annual number of recovered reindeer carcasses and sea ice cover were used as proxies for climate influenced food availability (reindeers, seals). Linear models revealed that concentrations of PCBs, chlordanes, p,p′-DDE, mirex and PBDEs decreased 4–11% per year, while no trends were observed for hexachlorobenzene (HCB) or β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH). Positive relationships between POP concentrations and δ{sup 13}C indicate that concentrations of all compounds increase with increasing marine dietary input. Increasing reindeer mortality was related to lower HCB concentrations in the foxes based on the linear models. This suggests that concentrations of HCB in arctic foxes may be influenced by high mortality levels of Svalbard reindeer. Further, β-HCH concentrations showed a positive association with sea ice cover. These results in addition to the strong effect of δ{sup 13}C on all POP concentrations suggest that climate-related changes in arctic fox diet are likely to influence contaminant concentrations in arctic foxes from Svalbard. - Highlights: • POPs were analyzed in the arctic foxes' liver (n = 141) from Svalbard collected in 1997–2013. • PCBs, chlordanes, p,p′-DDE, mirex and PBDEs decreased 4–11% per year.

  12. Characterization of the Temporal Trends in the Rate of Cattle Carcass Condemnations in the US and Dynamic Modeling of the Condemnation Reasons in California With a Seasonal Component

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Amirpour Haredasht

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on the 2016 National Cattlemen's Beef Association statistics, the cattle inventory in the US reached 93.5 million head, from which 30.5 million were commercial slaughter in 2016. California ranked fourth among all the US states that raise cattle and calves, with 5.15 million head and approximately 1.18 million slaughtered animals per year. Approximately 0.5% of cattle carcasses in the US are condemned each year, which has an important economic impact on cattle producers.In this study, we first described and compared the temporal trends of cattle carcass condemnations in all the US states from Jan-2005 to Dec-2014. Then, we focused on the condemnation reasons with a seasonal component in California and used dynamic harmonic regression (DHR models both to model (from Jan-2005 to Dec-2011 and predict (from Jan-2012 to Dec-2014 the carcass condemnations rate in different time horizons (3 to 12 months.Data consisted of daily reports of 35 condemnation reasons per cattle type reported in 684 federally inspected slaughterhouses in the US from Jan-2005 to Dec-2014 and the monthly slaughtered animals per cattle type per states. Almost 1.5 million carcasses were condemned in the US during the 10 year study period (Jan 2005-Dec 2014, and around 40% were associated with three condemnation reasons: malignant lymphoma, septicemia and pneumonia. In California, emaciation, eosinophilic myositis and malignant lymphoma were the only condemnation reasons presenting seasonality and, therefore, the only ones selected to be modeled using DHRs. The DHR models for Jan-2005 to Dec-2011 were able to correctly model the dynamics of the emaciation, malignant lymphoma and eosinophilic myositis condemnation rates with coefficient of determination (Rt2 of 0.98, 0.87 and 0.78, respectively. The DHR models for Jan-2012 to Dec-2014 were able to predict the rate of condemned carcasses 3 month ahead of time with mean relative prediction error of 33, 11, and 38

  13. Levels and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) from Svalbard in relation to dietary habits and food availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, Martin S.; Fuglei, Eva; König, Max; Lipasti, Inka; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Polder, Anuschka; Yoccoz, Nigel G.; Routti, Heli

    2015-01-01

    Temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) from Svalbard, Norway, were investigated in relation to feeding habits and seasonal food availability. Arctic foxes from Svalbard forage in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems and the availability of their food items are impacted by climatic variability. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorinated pesticides (OCPs) and brominated flame retardants (polybrominated diphenyl ethers [PBDEs] and hexabromocyclododecane [HBCDD]) were analyzed in the liver of 141 arctic foxes collected between 1997 and 2013. Stable carbon isotope values (δ 13 C) were used as a proxy for feeding on marine versus terrestrial prey. The annual number of recovered reindeer carcasses and sea ice cover were used as proxies for climate influenced food availability (reindeers, seals). Linear models revealed that concentrations of PCBs, chlordanes, p,p′-DDE, mirex and PBDEs decreased 4–11% per year, while no trends were observed for hexachlorobenzene (HCB) or β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH). Positive relationships between POP concentrations and δ 13 C indicate that concentrations of all compounds increase with increasing marine dietary input. Increasing reindeer mortality was related to lower HCB concentrations in the foxes based on the linear models. This suggests that concentrations of HCB in arctic foxes may be influenced by high mortality levels of Svalbard reindeer. Further, β-HCH concentrations showed a positive association with sea ice cover. These results in addition to the strong effect of δ 13 C on all POP concentrations suggest that climate-related changes in arctic fox diet are likely to influence contaminant concentrations in arctic foxes from Svalbard. - Highlights: • POPs were analyzed in the arctic foxes' liver (n = 141) from Svalbard collected in 1997–2013. • PCBs, chlordanes, p,p′-DDE, mirex and PBDEs decreased 4–11% per year.

  14. Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973–2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changfa Xia

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973–1975, 1990–1992 and 2004–2005. To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973–1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990–1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004–2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002 but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089 level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres’ beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15–64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents.

  15. Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973–2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Changfa; Kahn, Clare; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Chen, Wanqing; Yu, Xue Qin

    2016-01-01

    To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973–1975, 1990–1992 and 2004–2005). To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR) for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973–1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990–1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004–2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002) but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089) level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest) and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres’ beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15–64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents. PMID:27690073

  16. Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973-2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Changfa; Kahn, Clare; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Chen, Wanqing; Yu, Xue Qin

    2016-09-28

    To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973-1975, 1990-1992 and 2004-2005). To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR) for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973-1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990-1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004-2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level ( p = 0.002) but not at the economic zone ( p = 0.089) level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest) and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres' beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15-64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents.

  17. Application of the time-series approach to assess the temporal trend of racial disparity in chlamydia prevalence in the US National Job Training Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Lin H; Satterwhite, Catherine Lindsey; Braxton, Jim R; Groseclose, Samuel L

    2011-01-15

    The authors applied a time-series approach to assess the temporal trend of racial disparity in chlamydia prevalence between young, socioeconomically disadvantaged blacks and whites entering the US National Job Training Program. Racial disparity was defined as the arithmetic difference between age group-, specimen type-, and region of residence-standardized chlamydia prevalences in blacks and whites. A regression with autoregressive moving average errors model was employed to adjust for serial correlation. Data from 46,849 women (2006-2008) and 136,892 men (2004-2008) were analyzed. Racial disparity significantly decreased among women (by an average of 0.122% per 2-month interval; P < 0.05) but not among men (-0.010%, P = 0.57). Chlamydia prevalence significantly declined for black women (-0.139% per 2-month interval; P = 0.004), black men (-0.045%, P < 0.001), and white men (-0.035%, P = 0.002) but not for white women (-0.028%, P = 0.413). Despite the decreases among black women and black men, the black-white disparities remained high for both sexes; in 2008, the racial disparity was 8.1% (95% confidence interval: 6.8, 9.3) for women and 9.0% (95% confidence interval: 8.4, 9.6) for men. These findings suggest that current chlamydia control efforts may be reaching young black men and women but need to be scaled up or modified to address the excess risk among blacks.

  18. Tabagismo em estudantes de Medicina: tendências temporais e fatores associados Smoking among medical students: temporal trends and related variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Maria Baptista Menezes

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUÇÃO: Após o declínio observado na prevalência de tabagismo entre estudantes de Medicina entre as décadas de 1960 e 1980, parece estar ocorrendo, atualmente, uma estabilização nessa prevalência. OBJETIVO: Avaliar as tendências temporais de tabagismo entre estudantes de Medicina da Universidade Federal de Pelotas (RS nos últimos dezessete anos, e alguns dos fatores associados ao hábito de fumar desses estudantes. MÉTODO: Estudos transversais com metodologias comparáveis foram conduzidos em 1986, 1991, 1996 e 2002. Questionários auto-aplicáveis foram utilizados. Definiu-se como fumante o indivíduo que fumava mais de um cigarro por dia há mais de um mês. Foram realizadas análises descritivas iniciais, análises brutas com utilização dos testes de qui-quadrado para heterogeneidade e tendência linear, e regressão de Poisson para avaliar o efeito do ano cursado sobre a freqüência de tabagismo, com controle para a idade do estudante. RESULTADOS: A prevalência atual de tabagismo entre os estudantes foi de 10,1%, valor estatisticamente similar ao dos levantamentos de 1991 e 1996. Não foram encontradas diferenças na prevalência de tabagismo por sexo, idade, tabagismo materno ou paterno. A freqüência de tabagismo aumentou durante a faculdade. CONCLUSÕES: A tendência de declínio na prevalência de tabagismo em estudantes de Medicina da Universidade Federal de Pelotas parece estar sendo substituída por uma estabilização em torno de 10% a 15%. O combate ao fumo ainda parece indispensável em ambientes universitários, especialmente nas escolas de Medicina.BACKGROUND: Although the prevalence of smoking among medical students declined steadily between the 1960s and 1980s, it seems to have stabilized in recent years. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate temporal trends, over the last 17 years, in the smoking habits of medical students at the Universidade Federal de Pelotas, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and to identify

  19. Suicide time trends in Brazil from 1980 to 2005 Tendência temporal do suicídio no Brasil no período 1980-2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabíola Stolf Brzozowski

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to describe suicide time trends in Brazil from 1980 to 2005. The data were obtained from the National Mortality Information System and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE. Suicides rates were calculated for the entire period for the country as a whole and the 26 States and Federal District. Annual increases or decreases in mortality rates were also estimated using Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression. The mean suicide rate was 4.12 per 100,000 inhabitants (6.45/100,000 in men and 1.80/100,000 in women. The study showed an increasing suicide trend in men (+1.41% per year, 95%CI: 1.00;1.23 and a decreasing trend in women (-0.53% per year, 95%CI: -0.04;-1.02. Suicide rates increased with age. In general, for all age groups and for both genders, the highest rates were in São Paulo and in the States of the South and Central-West regions.O objetivo deste estudo foi descrever a tendência temporal das taxas de mortalidade por suicídio no Brasil, no período de 1980 a 2005. Os dados foram obtidos junto ao Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade e ao Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Foram calculadas as taxas médias de suicídio para todo o período, para cada estado, Distrito Federal e para o país como um todo, segundo sexo e faixas etárias. Também foram calculadas as variações médias anuais do suicídio pela regressão linear generalizada de Prais-Winsten. Foi observada, no período, taxa média de suicídio de 4,12 por 100 mil habitantes, variando de 6,45 por 100 mil habitantes entre homens a 1,80 por 100 mil habitantes entre mulheres, com tendência de ascensão entre os homens (+1,41% ao ano, IC95%: 1,00;1,23 e de declínio entre as mulheres (-0,53%, IC95%: -0,04;-1,02. O suicídio aumentou com o avanço da idade em ambos os sexos. De uma maneira geral, para todas as faixas etárias e para ambos os sexos, as maiores taxas foram encontradas em São Paulo e nos estados

  20. Assessment of temporal trend of radiation dose to the public living in the large area contaminated with radioactive materials after a nuclear power plant accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Go, A Ra; Kim, Min Jun; Kim, Kwang Pyo [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Nam Chan; Seol, Jeung Gun [Radiation Safety Team, Korea Electric Power Corporation Nuclear Fuel, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    It has been about 5 years since the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, which contaminated large area with radioactive materials. It is necessary to assess radiation dose to establish evacuation areas and to set decontamination goal for the large contaminated area. In this study, we assessed temporal trend of radiation dose to the public living in the large area contaminated with radioactive materials after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. The dose assessment was performed based on Chernobyl model and RESRAD model for two evacuation lift areas, Kawauchi and Naraha. It was reported that deposition densities in the areas were 4.3-96 kBq m{sup -2} for {sup 134}Cs, 1.4-300 kBq m{sup -2} for {sup 137}Cs, respectively. Radiation dose to the residents depended on radioactive cesium concentrations in the soil, ranging 0.11-2.4 mSv y{sup -1} at Kawauchi area and 0.69-1.1 mSv y{sup -1} at Naraha area in July 2014. The difference was less than 5% in radiation doses estimated by two different models. Radiation dose decreased with calendar time and the decreasing slope varied depending on dose assessment models. Based on the Chernobyl dosimetry model, radiation doses decreased with calendar time to about 65% level of the radiation dose in 2014 after 1 year, 11% level after 10 years, and 5.6% level after 30 years. RESRAD dosimetry model more slowly decreased radiation dose with time to about 85% level after 1 year, 40% level after 10 years, and 15% level after 30 years. The decrease of radiation dose can be mainly attributed into radioactive decays and environmental transport of the radioactive cesium. Only environmental transports of radioactive cesium without consideration of radioactive decays decreased radiation dose additionally 43% after 1 year, 72% after 3 years, 80% after 10 years, and 83% after 30 years. Radiation doses estimated with cesium concentration in the soil based on Chernobyl dosimetry model were compared with directly measured radiation doses

  1. Biotic interactions in temporal trends (1992–2010) of organochlorine contaminants in the aquatic food web of Lake Laberge, Yukon Territory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryan, M.J.; Stern, G.A.; Kidd, K.A.; Croft, M.V.; Gewurtz, S.; Diamond, M.; Kinnear, L.; Roach, P.

    2013-01-01

    -fishery closure. ► We observed significant temporal declines in OC from 1992 to 2010. ► Declines in OC were related to growth dilution for some species. ► Declines in OC were related to decreased lipids for some species. ► Zooplankton community changes may also have added to the declining trend in OC

  2. Biotic interactions in temporal trends (1992–2010) of organochlorine contaminants in the aquatic food web of Lake Laberge, Yukon Territory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryan, M.J. [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Freshwater Institute, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3T 2N6 (Canada); University of Manitoba, Dept. of Soil Science, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3T 2N2 (Canada); Stern, G.A., E-mail: gary.stern@dfo-mpo.gc.ca [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Freshwater Institute, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3T 2N6 (Canada); Kidd, K.A. [University of New Brunswick, Canadian Rivers Institute and Department of Biology, Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada E2L 4E5 (Canada); Croft, M.V. [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Freshwater Institute, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3T 2N6 (Canada); Gewurtz, S.; Diamond, M. [University of Toronto, Department of Geography, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3G3 (Canada); Kinnear, L. [Northern Climate Exchange, Yukon Research Center, Yukon College, Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada Y1A 5K4 (Canada); Roach, P. [Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada, Rm 415C - 300 Main St., Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada Y1A 2B5 (Canada)

    2013-01-15

    -fishery closure. ► We observed significant temporal declines in OC from 1992 to 2010. ► Declines in OC were related to growth dilution for some species. ► Declines in OC were related to decreased lipids for some species. ► Zooplankton community changes may also have added to the declining trend in OC.

  3. A transição nutricional no Brasil: tendências regionais e temporais Nutritional transition in Brazil: geographic and temporal trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malaquias Batista Filho

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Tendo como principal fonte de informações três estudos transversais realizados nas décadas de 70, 80 e 90, faz-se uma análise da transição nutricional do Brasil, referenciada no rápido declínio da prevalência de desnutrição em crianças e elevação, num ritmo mais acelerado, da prevalência de sobrepeso/obesidade em adultos. A correção dos déficits de estatura foi de 72% em crianças urbanas e de 54,4% no meio rural, enquanto a ocorrência de obesidade duplicou ou triplicou em homens e mulheres adultos nos extremos da série temporal analisada. Com exceção do Nordeste rural, a prevalência de desnutrição em mulheres adultas declinou para taxas aceitáveis (em torno de 5% a partir de 1989. Inversamente, as anemias continuam com prevalências elevadas e indicações de tendências epidêmicas. Descreve-se a evolução do estado nutricional da população brasileira segundo macrorregiões e distribuição social, analisando-se os prováveis fatores das mudanças ocorridas.Based on three cross-sectional studies conducted in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, an analysis of the nutritional transition in Brazil was performed. This analysis found a rapid decrease in the prevalence of childhood malnutrition and an even more rapid increase in adult overweight/obesity. Correction of the height deficit was 72% in urban children and 54.4% in rural children. Obesity rates doubled or tripled in adult men and women at the extremes of the time series analyzed. Excluding the rural Northeast, malnutrition prevalence in adult women dropped to acceptable rates (about 5% starting in 1989. Inversely, anemia continued to display a high prevalence, and there is indication of an epidemic trend. The evolution of nutritional status in the Brazilian population according to macro-regions and social distribution is reported. The likely factors for the observed changes are analyzed.

  4. Evolução temporal do tabagismo em estudantes de medicina, 1986, 1991, 1996 Trends in smoking habits among medical students in 1986, 1991, 1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Menezes

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tendência temporal do tabagismo em estudantes de medicina nos últimos dez anos. MÉTODOS: Realizou-se estudo transversal com estudantes do primeiro ao quinto ano do curso de medicina, em 1996. A amostra foi de 449 alunos que responderam a questionário auto-aplicável. Fumante era aquele que fumava um ou mais cigarros por dia há pelo menos um mês; ex-fumantes foram aqueles que, no período da entrevista, não eram fumantes regulares, mas o haviam sido anteriormente. Pesquisa similar foi realizada em 1986 e 1991. RESULTADOS/CONCLUSÕES: A prevalência de tabagismo foi de 11%, comparada com 14% em 1991 e 21% em 1986. Apesar da redução do tabagismo nas três séries estudadas, a queda percentual entre 1996 e 1991 foi menor do que aquela observada entre 1991 e 1986. Em 1996, a prevalência do vício de fumar aumentou conforme o ano cursado. Não houve diferenças significativas quanto ao sexo. A maioria dos alunos mostrou-se favorável à proibição do fumo em locais de ensino e assistência e afirmaram que o tema era pouco valorizado no currículo da faculdade.OBJECTIVE: To evaluate trends in smoking habits among medical students in the last ten years. METHODS: In 1996, a cross-sectional survey of smoking habits was carried out among students in the first to the fifth year of medical school. Four hundred and nine students answered the questionnaire. A regular smoker was defined as someone who smokes one or more cigarettes a day at least for one month; former smokers were the ones who used to smoke in the past but not at the moment. Similar researchs were conducted in 1986 and 1991. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: Smoking prevalence was 11% compared with 14% in 1991 and 21% in 1986. Although there was a significant reduction of smoking in the last three years, the actual decrease from 1991 to 1996 was less than that observed from 1986 to 1991. In 1961, the prevalence of smoking increased in the last years of medical school. There

  5. Temporal trends of influenza A (H1N1 virus seroprevalence following 2009 pandemic wave in Guangdong, China: three cross-sectional serology surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen Yang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To evaluate the temporal trends of seroprevalence to pH1N1 among the Guangdong population following 2009 H1N1 pandemic wave, we conducted three cross-sectional serology surveys in 2010. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Three surveys were carried out consecutively in 2010 from January 8 to January 24, from March 15 to April 10 and from August 23 to September 4. Sample populations comprising of 4725, 4727, and 4721 subjects respectively were randomly selected for study in these three surveys. The level of antibodies against pH1N1 was evaluated by hemagglutination inhibition assay. In survey 1, the seroprevalence of pH1N1 among all the subjects is 25.1%, declining to 18.4% in survey 2 and increasing to 21.4% in survey 3. Among vaccinated subjects, the seroprevalence was 49.0%, 53.0%, and 49.4% in the three consecutive surveys, showing no significant differences. In contrast, among non-vaccinated subjects, the seroprevalence declined significantly from 22.8% (survey 1 to 14.3% (survey 2 and subsequently increased to 18.1% (survey 3. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that seroprevalence to pH1N1 in non-vaccinated individuals correlated with the investigated order of the surveys, age, and region (all P<0.05. However, it was not correlated with gender (P = 0.650, seasonal influenza vaccination history (P = 0.402 and symptoms (P = 0.074. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In Guangdong, the seroprevalance to pH1N1 decreased initially and then rebounded modestly during the first 9 months following the 2009 pandemic wave. Our results suggest that the prevalence of pH1N1 is still correlated with age and population density during the post-pandemic period. An early end to the free pH1N1 vaccination program might be another important reason for the slight rebound in seroprevalance. Our study findings can help the Guangdong authorities to make evidence-based decisions about a long-term vaccination strategy and boost immunity in specific

  6. Environmental contaminants and biomarker responses in fish from the Rio Grande and its U.S. tributaries: Spatial and temporal trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, C.J.; Hinck, J.E.; Blazer, V.S.; Denslow, N.D.; Dethloff, G.M.; Bartish, T.M.; Coyle, J.J.; Tillitt, D.E.

    2005-01-01

    We collected, examined, and analyzed 368 fish of seven species from 10 sites on rivers of the Rio Grande Basin (RGB) during late 1997 and early 1998 to document temporal and geographic trends in the concentrations of accumulative contaminants and to assess contaminant effects on the fish. Sites were located on the mainstem of the Rio Grande and on the Arroyo Colorado and Pecos River in Texas (TX), New Mexico (NM), and Colorado. Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) were the targeted species. Fish were examined in the field for internal and external visible gross lesions, selected organs were weighed to compute ponderal and organosomatic indices, and samples of tissues and fluids were obtained and preserved for analysis of fish health and reproductive biomarkers. Whole fish from each station were composited by species and gender and analyzed for organochlorine chemical residues and elemental contaminants using instrumental methods, and for 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro dibenzo-p-dioxin-like activity (TCDD-EQ) using the H4IIE rat hepatoma cell bioassay. Overall, fish from lower RGB stations contained greater concentrations of organochlorine pesticide residues and appeared to be less healthy than those from sites in the central and upper parts of the basin, as indicated by a general gradient of residue concentrations and biomarker responses. A minimal number of altered biomarkers and few or no elevated contaminant concentrations were noted in fish from the upper RGB. The exception was elevated concentrations [up to 0.46 ??g/g wet-weight (ww)] of total mercury (Hg) in predatory species from the Rio Grande at Elephant Butte Reservoir, NM, a condition documented in previous studies. Arsenic (As) and selenium (Se) concentrations were greatest in fish from sites in the central RGB; Se concentrations in fish from the Pecos River at Red Bluff Lake, TX and from the Rio Grande at Langtry, TX and Amistad International Reservoir, TX exceeded published

  7. Environmental contaminants and biomarker responses in fish from the Rio Grande and its U.S. tributaries: spatial and temporal trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Christopher J; Hinck, Jo Ellen; Blazer, Vicki S; Denslow, Nancy D; Dethloff, Gail M; Bartish, Timothy M; Coyle, James J; Tillitt, Donald E

    2005-11-01

    We collected, examined, and analyzed 368 fish of seven species from 10 sites on rivers of the Rio Grande Basin (RGB) during late 1997 and early 1998 to document temporal and geographic trends in the concentrations of accumulative contaminants and to assess contaminant effects on the fish. Sites were located on the mainstem of the Rio Grande and on the Arroyo Colorado and Pecos River in Texas (TX), New Mexico (NM), and Colorado. Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) were the targeted species. Fish were examined in the field for internal and external visible gross lesions, selected organs were weighed to compute ponderal and organosomatic indices, and samples of tissues and fluids were obtained and preserved for analysis of fish health and reproductive biomarkers. Whole fish from each station were composited by species and gender and analyzed for organochlorine chemical residues and elemental contaminants using instrumental methods, and for 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro dibenzo-p-dioxin-like activity (TCDD-EQ) using the H4IIE rat hepatoma cell bioassay. Overall, fish from lower RGB stations contained greater concentrations of organochlorine pesticide residues and appeared to be less healthy than those from sites in the central and upper parts of the basin, as indicated by a general gradient of residue concentrations and biomarker responses. A minimal number of altered biomarkers and few or no elevated contaminant concentrations were noted in fish from the upper RGB. The exception was elevated concentrations [up to 0.46 microg/g wet-weight (ww)] of total mercury (Hg) in predatory species from the Rio Grande at Elephant Butte Reservoir, NM, a condition documented in previous studies. Arsenic (As) and selenium (Se) concentrations were greatest in fish from sites in the central RGB; Se concentrations in fish from the Pecos River at Red Bluff Lake, TX and from the Rio Grande at Langtry, TX and Amistad International Reservoir, TX exceeded

  8. Evolução temporal da mortalidade por suicídio em pessoas com 60 anos ou mais nos estados brasileiros, 1980 a 2009 Suicide mortality temporal trends in people aged 60 years or more in the Brazilian states: 1980 to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liana Wernersbach Pinto

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo objetiva verificar a evolução temporal da mortalidade por suicídio em pessoas com 60 anos ou mais segundo a unidade da federação no período de 1980 a 2009. Na construção das séries históricas empregaram-se dados da mortalidade por suicídio (CID-9 códigos E950 a E959 e CID-10 códigos X60 a X84 e Y87.0 obtidos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM/MS. Dados referentes à contagem populacional foram obtidos do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Na avaliação da tendência temporal empregou-se o modelo de regressão de Poisson, no qual a variável resposta foi o número de óbitos e a variável explanatória o ano calendário centralizado. Foram consideradas tendências estatisticamente significativas aquelas cujo p-valor The scope of this paper is to determine the temporal evolution of mortality by suicide in people aged 60 or more per State in Brazil between 1980 and 2009. Historical mortality by suicide data (ICD-9 codes E950 to E959 and ICD-10 codes X60 to X84 and Y87.0 were obtained from the Mortality Information System (SIM / MS. Data regarding population counts were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. In the assessment of temporal trends the Poisson regression model was used, in which the dependent variable was the number of deaths and the centralized calendar year was the explanatory variable. Statistically significant trends were considered those whose p-value was d" 0.05. The results revealed the presence of a statistically significant increasing trend in four states and a decrease in two (general population; 60 years or more. In the male population there was an increase in five states and a reduction in two. The female rate showed an increase in one state and a decrease in three. There was an increasing trend in Piauí, Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte and a reduction in Amazonas, Roraima, and São Paulo for people aged between 60 and 69. Increasing rates

  9. Spatial and Temporal Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Trends, Glacio-Isostatic Adjustment, and Surface Processes from a Joint Inversion of Satellite Altimeter, Gravity, and GPS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Espanol, Alba; Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Clarke, Peter J.; Flament, Thomas; Helm, Veit; King, Matt A.; Luthcke, Scott B.; Petrie, Elizabeth; Remy, Frederique; Schon, Nana; hide

    2016-01-01

    We present spatiotemporal mass balance trends for the Antarctic Ice Sheet from a statistical inversion of satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and elastic-corrected GPS data for the period 2003-2013. Our method simultaneously determines annual trends in ice dynamics, surface mass balance anomalies, and a time-invariant solution for glacio-isostatic adjustment while remaining largely independent of forward models. We establish that over the period 2003-2013, Antarctica has been losing mass at a rateof -84 +/- 22 Gt per yr, with a sustained negative mean trend of dynamic imbalance of -111 +/- 13 Gt per yr. West Antarctica is the largest contributor with -112 +/- 10 Gt per yr, mainly triggered by high thinning rates of glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea Embayment. The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a dramatic increase in mass loss in the last decade, with a mean rate of -28 +/- 7 Gt per yr and significantly higher values for the most recent years following the destabilization of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula around 2010. The total mass loss is partly compensated by a significant mass gain of 56 +/- 18 Gt per yr in East Antarctica due to a positive trend of surface mass balance anomalies.

  10. Spatio-Temporal Trends of Oak Decline and Mortality under Periodic Regional Drought in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaofei Fan; Xiuli Fan; Michael K. Crosby; W. Keith Moser; Hong He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley

    2012-01-01

    At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups) were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and...

  11. A cohort study: temporal trends in prevalence of antecedents, comorbidities and mortality in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians with first heart failure hospitalization, 2000-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Tiew-Hwa Katherine; Katzenellenbogen, Judith M; Hung, Joseph; Knuiman, Matthew; Sanfilippo, Frank M; Geelhoed, Elizabeth; Bessarab, Dawn; Hobbs, Michael; Thompson, Sandra C

    2015-08-12

    Little is known about trends in risk factors and mortality for Aboriginal Australians with heart failure (HF). This population-based study evaluated trends in prevalence of risk factors, 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality following first HF hospitalization among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Western Australians in the decade 2000-2009. Linked-health data were used to identify patients (20-84 years), with a first-ever HF hospitalization. Trends in demographics, comorbidities, interventions and risk factors were evaluated. Logistic and Cox regression models were fitted to test and compare trends over time in 30-day and 1-year mortality. Of 17,379 HF patients, 1,013 (5.8%) were Aboriginal. Compared with 2000-2002, the prevalence (as history) of myocardial infarction and hypertension increased more markedly in 2006-2009 in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) patients, while diabetes and chronic kidney disease remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal patients. Risk factor trends, including the Charlson comorbidity index, increased over time in younger Aboriginal patients. Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality did not change over the decade in either group. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality (in 30-day survivors) was non-significantly higher in Aboriginal patients in 2006-2008 compared with 2000-2002 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.44; 95% CI 0.85-2.41; p-trend = 0.47) whereas it decreased in non-Aboriginal patients (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.78-0.97; p-trend = 0.01). Between 2000 and 2009, the prevalence of HF antecedents increased and remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) HF patients. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality did not improve in Aboriginal patients over the period in contrast with non-Aboriginal patients. These findings highlight the need for better prevention and post-HF care in Aboriginal Australians.

  12. Temporal trend of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin/polychlorinated dibenzofuran and dioxin like-polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations in food from Taiwan markets during 2004–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Chang Lee

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDD and polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDF or polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB in foodstuffs have decreased over the past decade in many countries. However, the trend for the levels of these compounds in foodstuffs in Taiwan remains unknown. In this study, we compared the distribution of PCDD/F and PCB in nine foodstuff categories acquired from Taiwan markets from 2004 to 2012. The levels expressed as World Health Organization toxic equivalents (WHO-TEQs in the different foodstuffs tested were as follows: fish, average 0.463 pg WHO98-TEQ/g sample > seafood, 0.163 pg WHO98-TEQ/g > eggs, 0.150 pg WHO98-TEQ/g > oils, 0.126 pg WHO98-TEQ/g > meats, 0.095 pg WHO98-TEQ/g > dairy products, 0.054 pg WHO98-TEQ/g > cereals, 0.017 pg WHO98-TEQ/g > vegetables, 0.013 pg WHO98-TEQ/g > fruits, 0.009 pg WHO98-TEQ/g. Levels were particularly high in crab (average: 0.6 pg WHO98-TEQ/g sample (1.243 pg WHO98-TEQ/g sample and large marine fish (0.6. In Taiwan, a decreasing trend of PCDD/Fs or dioxin-like PCBs (dl-PCBs was observed in meat, dairy, eggs, and vegetables, whereas an elevated trend was observed in cereals or the levels were nearly equal in fruits and oils at alternative time shift. Dl-PCBs contributed to 60–65% toxicity equivalence levels in fish and seafood, but only to 13–40% in meat and cereal samples. The decreasing trend was consistent with the results in other countries; however, the trends in cereals, fruits, and oils were in contrast to previous results reported in other countries. Cereals and fruits are important crops in southern Taiwan, and the local pollution generated by industries or incinerators may seriously affect the distribution of PCDD/Fs and dl-PCBs. To ensure food safety, a risk assessment for residents living in different areas should be adopted for all food categories simultaneously in the future.

  13. Impact factor (if) of hospitality, leisure, sports & tourism journals: current trends, overall ranking and temporal stability over a four year period

    OpenAIRE

    Sans-Rosell, Nuria; Reverter Masià, Joaquín; Hernández González, Vicenç

    2013-01-01

    A journal’s “impact factor” (IF) is the bibliometric index that reflects the frequency with which an ‘‘average article’’ from a scientific journal has been cited in subsequent publications.The purpose of the present study is to examine the current impact factor of Hospitality, Leisure, Sports & Tourism journals, their overall ranking and temporal stability over a four year period. For this reason, we have included the impact factor of the scientific journals classifiedin the “Hospitality,...

  14. Evaluating lake stratification and temporal trends by using near-continuous water-quality data from automated profiling systems for water years 2005-09, Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veley, Ronald J.; Moran, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service and Southern Nevada Water Authority, collected near-continuous depth-dependent water-quality data at Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada, as part of a multi-agency monitoring network maintained to provide resource managers with basic data and to gain a better understanding of the hydrodynamics of the lake. Water-quality data-collection stations on Lake Mead were located in shallow water (less than 20 meters) at Las Vegas Bay (Site 3) and Overton Arm, and in deep water (greater than 20 meters) near Sentinel Island and at Virgin and Temple Basins. At each station, near-continual depth-dependent water-quality data were collected from October 2004 through September 2009. The data were collected by using automatic profiling systems equipped with multiparameter water-quality sondes. The sondes had sensors for temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and depth. Data were collected every 6 hours at 2-meter depth intervals (for shallow-water stations) or 5-meter depth intervals (for deep-water stations) beginning at 1 meter below water surface. Data were analyzed to determine water-quality conditions related to stratification of the lake and temporal trends in water-quality parameters. Three water-quality parameters were the main focus of these analyses: temperature, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen. Statistical temporal-trend analyses were performed for a single depth at shallow-water stations [Las Vegas Bay (Site 3) and Overton Arm] and for thermally-stratified lake layers at deep-water stations (Sentinel Island and Virgin Basin). The limited period of data collection at the Temple Basin station prevented the application of statistical trend analysis. During the summer months, thermal stratification was not observed at shallow-water stations, nor were major maxima or minima observed for specific-conductance or dissolved-oxygen profiles. A clearly-defined thermocline

  15. Temporal trends in sexual behavior among men who have sex with men in the United States, 2002 to 2006-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leichliter, Jami S; Haderxhanaj, Laura T; Chesson, Harrell W; Aral, Sevgi O

    2013-06-01

    Little is known about national trends in sexual behavior among MSM in the US. Data from the 2002 and 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth were used to compare sexual behaviors of sexually active MSM. Mean number of recent male partners significantly decreased from 2.9 in 2002 to 2.1 in 2006-2010 (P = 0.027), particularly among young MSM. Other sexual risk behaviors did not change or decrease over time. Our findings that sexual risk decreased as HIV and syphilis increased among MSM suggest that factors in addition to individual-level sexual risk should also be examined in relation to recent disease increases.

  16. Survived infancy but still vulnerable: spatial-temporal trends and risk factors for child mortality in the Agincourt rural sub-district, South Africa, 1992-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benn Sartorius

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Targeting of health interventions to poor children at highest risk of mortality are promising approaches for enhancing equity. Methods have emerged to accurately quantify excess risk and identify space-time disparities. This provides useful and detailed information for guiding policy. A spatio-temporal analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with child (1-4 years mortality in the Agincourt sub-district, South Africa, to assess temporal changes in child mortality patterns within the study site between 1992 and 2007, and to produce all-cause and cause-specific mortality maps to identify high risk areas. Demographic, maternal, paternal and fertility-related factors, household mortality experience, distance to health care facility and socio-economic status were among the examined risk factors. The analysis was carried out by fitting a Bayesian discrete time Bernoulli survival geostatistical model using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Bayesian kriging was used to produce mortality risk maps. Significant temporal increase in child mortality was observed due to the HIV epidemic. A distinct spatial risk pattern was observed with higher risk areas being concentrated in poorer settlements on the eastern part of the study area, largely inhabited by former Mozambican refugees. The major risk factors for childhood mortality, following multivariate adjustment, were mother’s death (especially when due to HIV and tuberculosis, greater number of children under 5 years living in the same household and winter season. This study demonstrates the use of Bayesian geostatistical models for accurately quantifying risk factors and producing maps of child mortality risk in a health and demographic surveillance system. According to the space-time analysis, the southeast and upper central regions of the site appear to have the highest mortality risk. The results inform policies to address health inequalities in the Agincourt sub-district and to

  17. Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmund, Erik; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Badura, Petr; Kalman, Michal; Hamrik, Zdenek; Pavelka, Jan

    2015-01-01

    This study examines trends in overweight and obesity, physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) among Czech adolescents over a recent 12-year study period. Nationally representative samples consisted of 19,940 adolescents (9760 boys and 10,180 girls) aged 10.5–16.5 years from the Czech Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (≥60 min per day of MVPA) and excessive ST (>2 h per day) were estimated using logistic regression. Significant increases (p overweight/obesity between the years 2002 and 2014 were evident for both adolescent boys (18.3%2002–24.8%2014) and girls (8.3%2002–11.9%2014). Compared to 2002, in 2014 significant decreases (p overweight/obesity with concomitant decreases in PA provide evidence in support of the current and upcoming efforts of government and commercial organizations in implementing interventions aimed at reducing excessive body weight among Czech adolescents. PMID:26393638

  18. Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmund, Erik; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Badura, Petr; Kalman, Michal; Hamrik, Zdenek; Pavelka, Jan

    2015-09-18

    This study examines trends in overweight and obesity, physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) among Czech adolescents over a recent 12-year study period. Nationally representative samples consisted of 19,940 adolescents (9760 boys and 10,180 girls) aged 10.5-16.5 years from the Czech Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (≥60 min per day of MVPA) and excessive ST (>2 h per day) were estimated using logistic regression. Significant increases (p overweight/obesity between the years 2002 and 2014 were evident for both adolescent boys (18.3%(2002)-24.8%(2014)) and girls (8.3%(2002)-11.9%(2014)). Compared to 2002, in 2014 significant decreases (p overweight/obesity with concomitant decreases in PA provide evidence in support of the current and upcoming efforts of government and commercial organizations in implementing interventions aimed at reducing excessive body weight among Czech adolescents.

  19. Temporal trends in erosion and hydrology for a post-mining landform at Ranger mine, Northern Territory. Supervising Scientist report 165

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moliere, D.R.; Evans, K.G.; Saynor, M.J.; Willgoose, G.R.

    2002-01-01

    An important part of rehabilitation planning for mines is the design of a stable landform for waste rock dumps or spoil piles, at the completion of mining, which minimise erosion and environmental impact offsite. To successfully incorporate landform designs in planning, there is a need to be able to predict the surface stability of the final landform using erosion and landform evolution modelling techniques. In the long term, weathering, soil forming processes, ecosystem development and even climate change may affect the surface characteristics, and hence the stability, of the rehabilitated landform. In this study, changes to the surface characteristics of a landform in time can be quantified in terms of erosion parameters. Since a prediction of the stability of the rehabilitated landform is required over the long term, temporal changes in these erosion parameters are incorporated into landform evolution modelling of a post-mining landform. The landform evolution model SIBERIA was used to predict the stability of the proposed rehabilitated landform at Ranger Mine, Northern Territory. The data collection sites were considered to be representative of the hydrology and erosion characteristics that would exist on the WRD at Ranger at various stages after rehabilitation. This study uses measured site data from landforms with hydrology and erosion properties similar to those likely to develop on Ranger at various times after rehabilitation to assess the effect of temporal change on landform evolution model input parameters. Section 2 documents the process of SIBERIA input parameter derivation and landform evolution modelling using collected site rainfall, runoff and sediment loss data. This section is based on the detailed descriptions of the process given in Willgoose and Riley (1998) and Evans et al( 1998). In section 3, monitoring data, collected from sites with properties similar to those likely to develop on the proposed above-grade landform at Ranger at various

  20. Temporal trends of mercury and organohalogen contaminants in great blue heron eggs from the St. Lawrence River, Québec, Canada, 1991-2011, and relationships with tracers of feeding ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champoux, Louise; Boily, Monique

    2017-12-31

    Since 1991, great blue heron (Ardea herodias) eggs have been collected and analyzed for mercury (Hg), persistent organic contaminants (OCs), brominated and non-brominated flame retardants (FRs) as well as stable isotopes δ 13 C and δ 15 N. In the present study, temporal trends of contaminants were analyzed in eggs sampled in four regions along the St. Lawrence River (Quebec, Canada) and inland sites using new and previously published data. Most contaminants declined significantly over time in most regions. Globally, the highest annual change, -17.5%, was found for pp'-DDD, while the smallest annual decline, -0.54%, was observed for Hg. Concentrations of ΣDDT and ΣFR 8 (sum of 8 congeners) decreased by -11.6% and -7.3%, respectively. Declines in ΣPCBs differed among regions, from -5.6% in the fluvial section to -14.7% in the inland region. The highest concentration of ΣFR 8 was measured in eggs from Grande Ile in the fluvial section of the river in 1996 (2.39μg/g). Stable isotope ratios also showed temporal trends in some regions: δ 13 C decreased in the fluvial section and increased in Gulf region, while δ 15 N decreased in the fluvial section and increased in the upper estuary. Significant positive relationships were found between ΣDDT, ΣPCBs and ΣFRs and δ 15 N and δ 13 C in freshwater colonies, but not in estuarine or marine colonies. These results suggest that changes in trophic level and foraging areas over time were influential factors with respect to contaminant burden in great blue heron eggs in the fluvial section, but not in the other regions. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Temporal trends (1989–2011) in levels of mercury and other heavy metals in feathers of fledgling great egrets nesting in Barnegat Bay, NJ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, Joanna

    2013-01-01

    There is an abundance of data for levels of metals from a range of species, but relatively few long-term time series from the same location. In this paper I examine the levels of arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, manganese, mercury and selenium in feathers from fledgling great egrets (Ardea alba) collected at nesting colonies in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey from 1989 to 2011. The primary objectives were to test the null hypotheses that (1) There were no temporal differences in metal levels in feathers of fledgling great egrets, and (2) Great egrets nesting in different areas of Barnegat Bay (New Jersey) did not differ in metal levels. There were significant yearly variations in levels of all heavy metals in feathers of fledgling great egret, but levels decreased significantly from 1989 to 2011 only for lead (1470 ppb to 54.3 ppb), cadmium (277 ppb to 30.5 ppb), and manganese (only since 1996; 2669 ppb to 329 ppb)). Although mercury levels decreased from 2003–2008 (6430 ppb to 1042 ppb), there was no pattern before 2003, and levels increased after 2008 to 2610 ppb in 2011. Lead, cadmium, chromium, manganese and mercury were higher in feathers from great egrets nesting in the northern part of the bay, and selenium was highest in feathers from mid-bay. The lack of a temporal decline in mercury levels in feathers of great egrets is cause for concern, since the high levels in feathers from some years (means as high as 6430 ppb) are in the range associated with adverse effects (5000 ppb for feathers). -- Highlights: ► Metals were monitored in feathers of great egrets from Barnegat Bay, New Jersey. ► Levels of cadmium and lead decreased significantly from 1989–2011. ► Mercury levels in feathers from great egrets did not decline from 1989–2011. ► Metal levels were generally higher in great egrets and black-crowned night heron feathers than in snowy egrets

  2. Temporal trends of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in eggs of coastal and offshore birds: Increasing PFAS levels associated with offshore bird species breeding on the Pacific coast of Canada and wintering near Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Aroha; Elliott, John E; Elliott, Kyle H; Lee, Sandi; Cyr, Francois

    2015-08-01

    Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) such as perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) and perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs) have become virtually ubiquitous throughout the environment, and, based on laboratory studies, have known toxicological consequences. Various national and international voluntary phase-outs and restrictions on these compounds have been implemented over the last 10 to 15 years. In the present study, we examine trends (1990/1991-2010/2011) in aquatic birds (ancient murrelet, Synthliboramphus antiquus [2009 only]; Leach's storm-petrels, Oceanodroma leucorhoa; rhinoceros auklets, Cerorhinca monocerata; double-crested cormorants, Phalacrocorax auritus; and great blue herons, Ardea herodias). The PFCA, PFSA, and stable isotope (δ(15) N and δ(13) C) data collected from these species from the Pacific coast of Canada, ranging over 20 to 30 years, were used to investigate temporal changes in PFAS coupled to dietary changes. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), the dominant PFSA compound in all 4 species, increased and subsequently decreased in auklet and cormorant eggs in line with the manufacturing phase-out of PFOS and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), but concentrations continuously increased in petrel eggs and remained largely unchanged in heron eggs. Dominant PFCA compounds varied between the offshore and coastal species, with increases seen in the offshore species and little or variable changes seen in the coastal species. Little temporal change was seen in stable isotope values, indicating that diet alone is not driving observed PFAS concentrations. © 2015 SETAC.

  3. Throughfall and temporal trends of rainfall redistribution in an open tropical rainforest, south-western Amazonia (Rondônia, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Germer

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Throughfall volumes and incident rainfall were measured between 23 August and 2 December 2004 as well as from 6 January to 15 April 2005 for individual rain events of differing intensities and magnitudes in an open tropical rainforest in Rondônia, Brazil. Temporal patterns of throughfall spatial variability were examined. Estimated interception was compared to modeled interception obtained by applying the revised Gash model in order to identify sources of throughfall variability in open tropical rainforests. Gross precipitation of 97 events amounted to 1309 mm, 89±5.6% (S.E. of which reached the forest floor as throughfall. The redistribution of water within the canopy was highly variable in time, which we attribute to the high density of babassu palms (Orbignya phalerata, their seasonal leaf growth, and their conducive morphology. We identified a 10-min rainfall intensity threshold of 30 mmh-1 above which interception was highly variable. This variability is amplified by funneling and shading effects of palms. This interaction between a rainfall variable and vegetation characteristics is relevant for understanding the hydrology of all tropical rainforests with a high palm density.

  4. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and organochlorines in melon-headed whales, Peponocephala electra, mass stranded along the Japanese coasts: Maternal transfer and temporal trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kajiwara, Natsuko; Kamikawa, Satoko [Center for Marine Environmental Studies (CMES), Ehime University, 2-5 Bunkyo-cho, Matsuyama 790-8577 (Japan); Amano, Masao [Department of Animal Sciences, Teikyo University of Science and Technology, 2525 Yatsusawa, Uenohara, Yamanashi 409-0193 (Japan); Hayano, Azusa [Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Sakyo, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan); Yamada, Tadasu K. [National Museum of Nature and Science, 3-23-1 Hyakunin-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-0073 (Japan); Miyazaki, Nobuyuki [Center for International Cooperation, Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Minamidai 1-15-1, Nakano-ku, Tokyo 164-8639 (Japan); Tanabe, Shinsuke [Center for Marine Environmental Studies (CMES), Ehime University, 2-5 Bunkyo-cho, Matsuyama 790-8577 (Japan)], E-mail: shinsuke@agr.ehime-u.ac.jp

    2008-11-15

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and organochlorine compounds (OCs) were determined in the blubber of 55 melon-headed whales (Peponocephala electra) mass stranded along the Japanese coasts since 1982. DDTs and PCBs were predominant in all the specimens investigated. In whales that died during the latest event in 2006, concentrations of PBDEs (190-510 ng/g lipid wt) were approximately two orders of magnitude lower than DDTs and PCBs, but comparable with HCHs and HCB. Maternal transfer of PBDEs to offspring through the whole reproductive process was estimated to be 85% of the mother's body burden, while that occurring during gestation was much lower (2.6-3.5%). Concentrations of PCBs, DDTs, and HCB were lower in melon-headed whales stranded after the year 2000 than those stranded in 1982, whereas PBDE and CHL levels showed a temporal increase during the past 20 years, suggesting that the peak of their usage and contamination occurred after the year 1982. - PBDE levels in melon-headed whales increased during the past two decades.

  5. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and organochlorines in melon-headed whales, Peponocephala electra, mass stranded along the Japanese coasts: Maternal transfer and temporal trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kajiwara, Natsuko; Kamikawa, Satoko; Amano, Masao; Hayano, Azusa; Yamada, Tadasu K.; Miyazaki, Nobuyuki; Tanabe, Shinsuke

    2008-01-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and organochlorine compounds (OCs) were determined in the blubber of 55 melon-headed whales (Peponocephala electra) mass stranded along the Japanese coasts since 1982. DDTs and PCBs were predominant in all the specimens investigated. In whales that died during the latest event in 2006, concentrations of PBDEs (190-510 ng/g lipid wt) were approximately two orders of magnitude lower than DDTs and PCBs, but comparable with HCHs and HCB. Maternal transfer of PBDEs to offspring through the whole reproductive process was estimated to be 85% of the mother's body burden, while that occurring during gestation was much lower (2.6-3.5%). Concentrations of PCBs, DDTs, and HCB were lower in melon-headed whales stranded after the year 2000 than those stranded in 1982, whereas PBDE and CHL levels showed a temporal increase during the past 20 years, suggesting that the peak of their usage and contamination occurred after the year 1982. - PBDE levels in melon-headed whales increased during the past two decades

  6. PM2.5 and gaseous pollutants in New York State during 2005-2016: Spatial variability, temporal trends, and economic influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squizzato, Stefania; Masiol, Mauro; Rich, David Q.; Hopke, Philip K.

    2018-06-01

    Over the past decades, mitigation strategies have been adopted both by federal and state agencies in the United States (US) to improve air quality. Between 2007 and 2009, the US faced a financial/economic crisis that lowered activity and reduced emissions. At the same time, changes in the prices of coal and natural gas drove a shift in fuels used for electricity generation. Seasonal patterns, diel cycles, spatial gradients, and trends in PM2.5 and gaseous pollutants concentrations (NOx, SO2, CO and O3) monitored in New York State (NYS) from 2005 to 2016 were examined. Relationships between ambient concentrations, changes in NYS emissions retrieved from the US EPA trends inventory, and economic indicators were studied. PM2.5 and primary gaseous pollutants concentrations decreased across NYS. By 2016, PM2.5 and SO2 attained relatively homogeneous concentrations across the state. PM2.5 concentrations decreased significantly at all sites. Similarly, SO2 concentrations declined at all sites within this period, with the highest slopes observed at the urban sites. Reductions in NOx emissions likely contributed to summertime average ozone reductions. NOx and VOCs controls reduced O3 peak concentrations as seen in significant relationships between the annual O3 4th-highest daily maximum 8-h concentrations and estimated NOx emissions at rural and suburban sites (r2 ∼ 0.7). Spring maxima were not reduced with most sites showing insignificant slopes or significant positive slopes (e.g., +2.6% y-1 and +2% y-1, at CCNY and PFI, respectively). Increases in autumn and winter ozone concentrations were found (e,g., 6.6 ± 0.4% y-1 on average in New York City). Significant relationships were observed between PM2.5, primary pollutants, and economic indicators. Overall, a decrease in electricity generation with coal, and the simultaneous increase in natural gas consumption for power generation, led to a decrease in PM2.5 and gaseous pollutants concentrations.

  7. Temporal trends in treatment outcomes for HIV-1 and HIV-2-infected adults enrolled in Côte d'Ivoire's national antiretroviral therapy program.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew F Auld

    Full Text Available In Côte d'Ivoire during 2004-2007, numbers of ART enrollees increased from <5,000 to 36,943. Trends in nationally representative ART program outcomes have not yet been reported.We conducted a retrospective chart review to assess trends in patient characteristics and attrition [death or loss to follow-up (LTFU] over time, among a nationally representative sample of 3,682 adults (≥15 years initiating ART during 2004-2007 at 34 health facilities. Among ART enrollees during 2004-2007, median age was 36, the proportion female was 67%, the proportion HIV-2-infected or dually HIV-1&2 reactive was 5%, and median baseline CD4+ T-cell (CD4 count was 135 cells/µL. Comparing cohorts initiating ART in 2004 with cohorts initiating ART in 2007, median baseline weight declined from 55 kg to 52 kg (p = 0.008 and the proportion weighing <45 kg increased from 17% to 22% (p = 0.014. During 2004-2007, pharmacy-based estimates of the percentage of new ART enrollees ≥95% adherent to ART declined from 74% to 60% (p = 0.026, and twelve-month retention declined from 86% to 69%, due to increases in 12-month mortality from 2%-4% and LTFU from 12%-28%. In univariate analysis, year of ART initiation was associated with increasing rates of both LTFU and mortality. Controlling for baseline CD4, weight, adherence, and other risk factors, year of ART initiation was still strongly associated with LTFU but not mortality. In multivariate analysis, weight <45 kg and adherence <95% remained strong predictors of LTFU and mortality.During 2004-2007, increasing prevalence among ART enrollees of measured mortality risk factors, including weight <45 kg and ART adherence <95%, might explain increases in mortality over time. However, the association between later calendar year and increasing LTFU is not explained by risk factors evaluated in this analysis. Undocumented transfers, political instability, and patient dissatisfaction with crowded facilities might explain

  8. Temporal trends and associated factors for pre-hospital and in-hospital delays of stroke patients over a 16-year period: the Athens study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papapanagiotou, Panagiotis; Iacovidou, Nicoletta; Spengos, Konstantinos; Xanthos, Theodoros; Zaganas, Ioannis; Aggelina, Afrodite; Alegakis, Athanasios; Vemmos, Konstantinos

    2011-01-01

    The management and outcome of acute ischemic stroke changed dramatically after the introduction of intravenous thrombolysis. However, relatively few patients have received thrombolytic treatment, mainly due to pre-hospital and/or in-hospital delays. Although the causes of these delays have been adequately studied, their change over a long period has not. All acute first-ever stroke patients (n = 2,746) presenting to our academic center from 1993 to 2008 were prospectively documented in a computerized stroke data bank. The time from symptoms onset to presentation at the emergency room and to acquisition of a brain CT was calculated. Time trends over this period as well as the factors affecting them were analyzed. The final study cohort consisted of 2,326 acute stroke patients after excluding 302 patients with an unknown time of stroke onset and 118 who suffered a stroke during hospitalization for another illness. Over the 16-year period, the median time from stroke onset to presentation at the emergency room decreased significantly from 3.15 h (interquartile range 1.30-10.30) to 2.00 h (range 1.00-4.00) (p best early management of acute stroke patients. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  9. Impact of rheumatoid arthritis in the public health system in Santa Catarina, Brazil: a descriptive and temporal trend analysis from 1996 to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Kmiliauskis Santos Gomes

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction: There are few studies that carried out a descriptive and trend analysis based on available data from the Unified Health System (SUS between pre- and post-free dispensing of pharmacological treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA from the perspective of the public health system, in terms of the direct cost of the disease among adults and elderly residents of the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. This study aims to characterize the direct cost of medical and surgical procedures before and after the dispensing of drugs in this state. Methods: This is a time series-type study with a cross-sectional survey of data from the Hospital (SIH and Outpatient (SIA Information System of SUS during the period from 1996 to 2009. Results: Between 1996 and 2009, the total expenditure for hospital- and outpatient pharmacological treatment of rheumatoid arthritis was R$ 26,659,127.20. After the dispensing of drug treatment by SUS a decrease of 36% in the number of hospital admissions was observed; however, an increase of 19% in clinical procedures was noted. Conclusion: During the observed period, a reduction in the number of hospital admissions for both clinical and orthopedic surgical procedures related to this disease was observed. Nevertheless, there was an increase in the cost of medical admissions.

  10. Impact of rheumatoid arthritis in the public health system in Santa Catarina, Brazil: a descriptive and temporal trend analysis from 1996 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Rafael Kmiliauskis Santos; Pires, Fabio Antero; Nobre, Moacyr Roberto Cuce; Marchi, Mauricio Felippi de Sá; Rickli, Jennifer Cristina Kozechen

    There are few studies that carried out a descriptive and trend analysis based on available data from the Unified Health System (SUS) between pre- and post-free dispensing of pharmacological treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) from the perspective of the public health system, in terms of the direct cost of the disease among adults and elderly residents of the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. This study aims to characterize the direct cost of medical and surgical procedures before and after the dispensing of drugs in this state. This is a time series-type study with a cross-sectional survey of data from the Hospital (SIH) and Outpatient (SIA) Information System of SUS during the period from 1996 to 2009. Between 1996 and 2009, the total expenditure for hospital- and outpatient pharmacological treatment of rheumatoid arthritis was R$ 26,659,127.20. After the dispensing of drug treatment by SUS a decrease of 36% in the number of hospital admissions was observed; however, an increase of 19% in clinical procedures was noted. During the observed period, a reduction in the number of hospital admissions for both clinical and orthopedic surgical procedures related to this disease was observed. Nevertheless, there was an increase in the cost of medical admissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  11. Tendência temporal de tabagismo em população urbana: um estudo de base populacional no Sul do Brasil Time trends in smoking in an urban population: a population-based study in Southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josiane L. Dias-Damé

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Avaliou-se a tendência temporal da prevalência de tabagismo conforme renda familiar, idade e sexo entre indivíduos com 20 anos ou mais residentes em Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Cinco inquéritos de base populacional utilizando-se de setores censitários foram realizados na cidade entre 2002-2010. Considerou-se tabagismo o consumo de um ou mais cigarros por dia há pelo menos um mês. A tendência temporal foi avaliada por meio do teste de qui-quadrado para tendência linear. Os cinco inquéritos realizados incluíram 15.136 indivíduos. Neste período, a prevalência total de tabagismo caiu de 28% (25,8-30,4 em 2002 para 21% (19,5-23,5 em 2010. Esta queda de 23% foi semelhante entre os sexos, mas muito diferente em relação à renda familiar. Quanto menor a renda familiar, maior a prevalência de tabagismo. Entre 2002-2010, a taxa de redução do tabagismo foi de 26% no menor quintil de renda e de 39% no maior. Apesar das reduções observadas, a prevalência de tabagismo ainda é elevada, indicando a necessidade de fortalecer medidas de controle voltadas principalmente aos indivíduos com menor renda.This study evaluated time trends in smoking prevalence according to gender and family income among individuals 20 years or older in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Five population-based surveys using census tracts were conducted in the city from 2002 to 2010. Smoking was defined as consumption of one or more cigarettes per day for at least one month. Time trend was assessed using the chi-square test for linear trend. 15,136 individuals were enrolled in these surveys. During this period, overall smoking prevalence decreased from 28% (25.8-30.4 in 2002 to 21% (19.5-23.5 in 2010. This 23% decline was similar in both genders, but differed significantly according to family income (smoking prevalence increased as income dropped. From 2002 to 2010, smoking decreased by 26% in the lowest income quintile and 39% in the highest. Despite

  12. UTILITY OF FISHERY HIGH SCHOOL DATA IN EXAMINING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CATCH AND EFFORT TRENDS IN THE INDONESIAN LONGLINE TUNA FISHERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilis Sadiyah

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the endeavours to address the shortage of catch per unit effort (CPUE information from the Indonesian Indian Ocean tuna fishery is the collation of a large amount of catch and effort data collected by Indonesian Fisheries High School students (“FHS data”. This paper attempts to investigate spatial-temporal patterns of catch and effort of the FHS data for the main tuna species caught by the fishery: bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus - BET, yellowfin tuna (T. albacares - YFT, albacore (T. alalunga - ALB and southern bluefin tuna (T.maccoyii - SBT. Reported sets occurred in the Eastern Indian Ocean, north and south of 20°S. Recorded effort from the FHS data set was concentrated within the only known SBT spawning ground. However, within this data set, SBT were recorded in the lowest catch proportion relative to BET, YFT and ALB. The catch composition data suggested that YFT and ALB were predominantly targeted by the fishery, with ALB and SBT most predominantly recorded south of 20°S, whereas BET and YFT were mostly recorded north of 20°S. Unfortunately, there was no strong information on targeting practices reported by this data set, limiting any attempts to understand the factors that influenced those results. As the sampling predominantly occurred in between July and December, the data are not representative of fishing activities throughout the entire year, and any seasonal patterns from the FHS data set are biased. In addition, the FHS data set is prone to observation error and uncertainty in terms of fish identification and fishing location. Therefore, the FHS data set needs to be interpreted with caution.

  13. Spatial and temporal distribution patterns of Anopheles arabiensis breeding sites in La Reunion Island - multi-year trend analysis of historical records from 1996-2009

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    Lempérière Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An often confounding facet of the dynamics of malaria vectors is the aquatic larval habitat availability and suitable conditions under which they can thrive. Here, we investigated the impact of environmental factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of larval habitats of Anopheles arabiensis in different locations on La Reunion Island. Methods A retrospective examination was made from archival data which provided the complete enumeration of An. arabiensis breeding habitats in three distinct geographic zones - extending North-east, West and South of the island over 14 years, from January 1996 to December 2009. Data on the occurrence and the number of active larval habitats at each of a total of 4376 adjacent ellipsoid grid cells (216,506 square meters each were used (1 to provide the geographic extent of breeding site availability from year to year and (2 to analyze associations with prevailing environmental factors, habitat types, and locations. Results Anopheles arabiensis utilized a spectrum of man-made and natural aquatic habitats, most of which were concentrated primarily in the rock pools located in ravines and river fringes, and also in the large littoral marshes and within the irrigated agricultural zones. The numbers of breeding site per sampling grid differed significantly in different parts of the island. In contrast to an originally more widespread distribution across the island in the 1950s, detailed geographic analyses of the data obtained in the period extending from 1996-2009 showed an intriguing clustered distribution of active breeding sites in three discontinuous geographic zones, in which aquatic habitats availability fluctuates with the season and year. Seasonality in the prevalence of anopheles breeding sites suggests significant responsiveness to climatic factors. Conclusions The observed retreat of An. arabiensis distribution range to lower altitudinal zones (

  14. Sodium, saturated fat, and trans fat content per 1,000 kilocalories: temporal trends in fast-food restaurants, United States, 2000-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Lorien E; Roberts, Susan B; Fierstein, Jamie L; Gary, Christine E; Lichtenstein, Alice H

    2014-12-31

    Intakes of sodium, saturated fat, and trans fat remain high despite recommendations to limit these nutrients for cardiometabolic risk reduction. A major contributor to intake of these nutrients is foods prepared outside the home, particularly from fast-food restaurants. We analyzed the nutrient content of frequently ordered items from 3 US national fast-food chains: fried potatoes (large French fries), cheeseburgers (2-oz and 4-oz), and a grilled chicken sandwich. We used an archival website to obtain data on sodium, saturated fat, and trans fat content for these items from 2000 through 2013. The amount of each nutrient per 1,000 kcal was calculated to determine whether there were trends in product reformulation. Sodium content per 1,000 kcal differed widely among the 3 chains by food item, precluding generalizations across chains. During the 14-year period, sodium content per 1,000 kcal for large French fries remained high for all 3 chains, although the range narrowed from 316-2,000 mg per 1,000 kcal in 2000 to 700-1,420 mg per 1,000 kcal in 2013. Among the items assessed, cheeseburgers were the main contributor of saturated fat, and there was little change in content per 1,000 kcal for this item during the 14-year period. In contrast, there was a sharp decline in saturated and trans fat content of large French fries per 1,000 kcal. Post-2009, the major contributor of trans fat per 1,000 kcal was cheeseburgers; trans fat content of this item remained stable during the 14-year period. With the exception of French fries, little evidence was found during the 14-year period of product reformulation by restaurants to become more consistent with dietary guidance to reduce intakes of sodium and saturated fat.

  15. Temporal trends in clinical characteristics and management according to sex in patients with cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction: The FAST-MI programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isorni, Marc-Antoine; Aissaoui, Nadia; Angoulvant, Denis; Bonello, Laurent; Lemesle, Gilles; Delmas, Clément; Henry, Patrick; Schiele, François; Ferrières, Jean; Simon, Tabassome; Danchin, Nicolas; Puymirat, Étienne

    2018-02-22

    Cardiogenic shock (CS) complicating acute myocardial infarction (AMI) occurs more frequently in women, but little is known about its potential specificities according to sex. To analyse the incidence, management and 1-year mortality of CS according to sex using the FAST-MI programme. The FAST-MI programme consists of four nationwide French surveys carried out 5 years apart from 1995 to 2010, including consecutive patients with AMI over a 1-month period, and with a 1-year follow-up. Among the 10,610 patients included in the surveys, the incidence of CS was 4.8% in men and 8.2% in women (Psexes. Mean age in patients with CS tended to decrease in men (from 72±12 to 69±13 years) and to increase in women (from 78±10 to 80±9 years). One-year mortality decreased significantly in men (from 70% in 1995 to 48% in 2010) and in women (from 81% to 54%). Using Cox multivariable analysis, female sex was not an independent correlate of 1-year mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78-1.22]. Early use of percutaneous coronary intervention was, however, an independent predictor of 1-year survival in women (HR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.37-0.81), but showed only a non-significant trend in men (HR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.61-1.19). The incidence of CS-AMI has decreased in both men and women, but remains higher in women. One-year mortality has significantly decreased for both men and women, and the role of early percutaneous coronary intervention as a potential mediator of decreased mortality seems greater in women than in men. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  16. Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aburas, Maher Milad; Ho, Yuek Ming; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Ash'aari, Zulfa Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning.

  17. Temporal trends in general and age-specific fertility rates among women with schizophrenia (1996-2009): a population-based study in Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigod, Simone N; Seeman, Mary V; Ray, Joel G; Anderson, Geoffrey M; Dennis, Cindy Lee; Grigoriadis, Sophie; Gruneir, Andrea; Kurdyak, Paul A; Rochon, Paula A

    2012-08-01

    There is substantial evidence that women with schizophrenia in many parts of the world have fewer children than their peers. Our objective was to analyze recent trends in general and age-specific fertility rates among women with schizophrenia in Ontario, Canada. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional population-based study from 1996 to 2009 using population-based linked administrative databases for the entire province of Ontario. Women aged 15-49 years were classified into schizophrenia and non-schizophrenia groups in each successive 12-month period. Annual general and age-specific fertility rates were derived. The general fertility rate (GFR) among women with schizophrenia was 1.16 times higher in 2007-2009 than in 1996-1998 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.31). The annual GFR ratio of women with vs. without schizophrenia was 0.41 (95% CI 0.36-0.47) in 2009, which was slightly higher than the same ratio in 1996 of 0.30 (95% CI 0.25-0.35). Annual age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) increased over time among women with schizophrenia aged 20-24, 25-29, 35-39 and 40-44 years, but the increase was not always statistically significant. Among women aged 20-24 years, the ASFR ratio in women with vs. without schizophrenia was not significant by the end of the study period (0.93, 95% CI 0.70-1.22). The general fertility rate among women with schizophrenia appears to have increased modestly over the past 13 years. Clinical care and health policy should consider new strategies that focus on the mental health of women with schizophrenia as new mothers, while optimizing healthy pregnancies and child rearing. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Spatio-Temporal Trends of Oak Decline and Mortality under Periodic Regional Drought in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri

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    Stephen R. Shifley

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and basal area of standing dead oak trees, respectively. These values are three to five times higher than for white oak group and non-oak species. Oak decline and associated escalating mortality have occurred primarily in red oak species while the white oak group has maintained a relatively stable mortality rate that is comparable to non-oak species. Cross-correlation analyses indicate that mortality in the red oak group was significantly correlated with the growing season Palmer drought severity index (PDSI and usually lagged two to three years following single drought events. Moreover, based on the past 17 years PDSI data, it appears that the cumulative impacts of drought may last up to 10 years. The Ozark Highlands experienced a severe drought extending from 1998 to 2000 and another milder drought from 2005 to 2006. These drought events triggered the escalation of mortality starting around year 2000. Spatially, high red oak mortality sites (hot spots with proportional basal area mortality > 0.12 initially occurred in the central Ozarks and spread gradually over most of the Ozark Highlands as regional droughts continued. In contrast, sites with elevated white oak and non-oak mortality occurred sporadically, mainly in the southern portion (Arkansas of the Ozark Highlands. During the most recent inventory period (2006–2010, over 60%, 7% and 5% of red oak, white oak and non-oak groups, respectively, had relative mortality rates of > 12%.

  19. Temporal trends in compliance with appropriateness criteria for stress single-photon emission computed tomography sestamibi studies in an academic medical center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbons, Raymond J; Askew, J Wells; Hodge, David; Miller, Todd D

    2010-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to apply published appropriateness criteria for single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) in a single academic medical center to determine if the percentage of inappropriate studies was changing over time. In a previous study, we applied the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Society of Nuclear Cardiology (ASNC) appropriateness criteria for stress SPECT MPI and reported that 14% of stress SPECT studies were performed for inappropriate reasons. Using similar methodology, we retrospectively examined 284 patients who underwent stress SPECT MPI in October 2006 and compared the findings to the previous cohort of 284 patients who underwent stress SPECT MPI in May 2005. The indications for testing in the 2 cohorts were very similar. The overall level of agreement in characterizing categories of appropriateness between 2 experienced cardiovascular nurse abstractors was good (kappa = 0.68), which represented an improvement from our previous study (kappa = 0.56). There was a significant change between May 2005 and October 2006 in the overall classification of categories for appropriateness (P = .024 by chi(2) statistic). There were modest, but insignificant, increases in the number of patients who were unclassified (15% in the current study vs 11% previously), appropriate (66% vs 64%), and uncertain (12% vs 11%). Only 7% of the studies in the current study were inappropriate, which represented a significant (P = .004) decrease from the 14% reported in the 2005 cohort. In the absence of any specific intervention, there was a significant change in the overall classification of SPECT appropriateness in an academic medical center over 17 months. The only significant difference in individual categories was a decrease in inappropriate studies. Additional measurements over time will be required to determine if this trend is sustainable or generalizable.

  20. Young and vulnerable: Spatial-temporal trends and risk factors for infant mortality in rural South Africa (Agincourt, 1992-2007

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    Vounatsou Penelope

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Infant mortality is an important indicator of population health in a country. It is associated with several health determinants, such as maternal health, access to high-quality health care, socioeconomic conditions, and public health policy and practices. Methods A spatial-temporal analysis was performed to assess changes in infant mortality patterns between 1992-2007 and to identify factors associated with infant mortality risk in the Agincourt sub-district, rural northeast South Africa. Period, sex, refugee status, maternal and fertility-related factors, household mortality experience, distance to nearest primary health care facility, and socio-economic status were examined as possible risk factors. All-cause and cause-specific mortality maps were developed to identify high risk areas within the study site. The analysis was carried out by fitting Bayesian hierarchical geostatistical negative binomial autoregressive models using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation-based Bayesian kriging was used to produce maps of all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk. Results Infant mortality increased significantly over the study period, largely due to the impact of the HIV epidemic. There was a high burden of neonatal mortality (especially perinatal with several hot spots observed in close proximity to health facilities. Significant risk factors for all-cause infant mortality were mother's death in first year (most commonly due to HIV, death of previous sibling and increasing number of household deaths. Being born to a Mozambican mother posed a significant risk for infectious and parasitic deaths, particularly acute diarrhoea and malnutrition. Conclusions This study demonstrates the use of Bayesian geostatistical models in assessing risk factors and producing smooth maps of infant mortality risk in a health and socio-demographic surveillance system. Results showed marked geographical differences in mortality risk across

  1. Temporal trend analysis of avoidable mortality in Taiwan, 1971-2008: overall progress, with areas for further medical or public health investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Brian K; Yang, Chun-Yuh

    2013-06-06

    Avoidable mortality (AM), or "unnecessary untimely death," is considered an indicator of health care quality. We investigated trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and associated standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) for deaths amenable to medical care or public health measures in Taiwan from 1971-2008, with an emphasis on identifying areas where additional medical or public health investment may help reduce the burden of AM. Taiwan's ASMRs per 100,000 for AM and other causes of death were calculated using data from the National Death Certificate Registry in five-year bins from 1971 to 2008. SEYLL rates per 100,000 were calculated annually from 1971 to 2008 using the same data source. ASMR for almost all AM and other causes of death declined dramatically from 1971 to 2008 except for lung cancer (16.6% and 7.4% increase among men and women, respectively) and breast cancer (109.8% increase among women). In the same period, SEYLL due to lung cancer increased from 269.2 to 555.7 for men and 249.7 to 342.5 for women. For women, SEYLL due to breast cancer increased from 263.5 in 1971 to 659.3 in 2008. There were gender-specific differences in the reduction (or increase) in AM rates, with women showing larger rates of reduction or smaller rates of increase. Among men, AM fell by 65.9% from 1971-1975 to 2006-2008, and deaths from other causes increased by 15.6%. Among women, AM and deaths from other causes fell by 80.8% and 59.8% respectively. SEYLL decreased, respectively among males and females, from 23,147.3 and 24,081.1 in 1971 to 11,261.8 and 5,929.6 in 2008. From 1971 to 2008, Taiwan experienced a dramatic reduction in most AM and corresponding SEYLL except for lung cancer (for both males and females) and breast cancer (for females). Additional effort should be devoted to public health measures to combat the rising prevalence of smoking in Taiwan, which may be responsible for the increasing AM from lung cancer. If AM in breast cancer continues

  2. Magnitude, temporal trends, and projections of the global prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourne, Rupert R A; Flaxman, Seth R; Braithwaite, Tasanee; Cicinelli, Maria V; Das, Aditi; Jonas, Jost B; Keeffe, Jill; Kempen, John H; Leasher, Janet; Limburg, Hans; Naidoo, Kovin; Pesudovs, Konrad; Resnikoff, Serge; Silvester, Alex; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tahhan, Nina; Wong, Tien Y; Taylor, Hugh R

    2017-09-01

    Global and regional prevalence estimates for blindness and vision impairment are important for the development of public health policies. We aimed to provide global estimates, trends, and projections of global blindness and vision impairment. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based datasets relevant to global vision impairment and blindness that were published between 1980 and 2015. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate the prevalence (by age, country, and sex), in 2015, of mild visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/12 to 6/18 inclusive), moderate to severe visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/18 to 3/60 inclusive), blindness (presenting visual acuity worse than 3/60), and functional presbyopia (defined as presenting near vision worse than N6 or N8 at 40 cm when best-corrected distance visual acuity was better than 6/12). Globally, of the 7·33 billion people alive in 2015, an estimated 36·0 million (80% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·9-65·4) were blind (crude prevalence 0·48%; 80% UI 0·17-0·87; 56% female), 216·6 million (80% UI 98·5-359·1) people had moderate to severe visual impairment (2·95%, 80% UI 1·34-4·89; 55% female), and 188·5 million (80% UI 64·5-350·2) had mild visual impairment (2·57%, 80% UI 0·88-4·77; 54% female). Functional presbyopia affected an estimated 1094·7 million (80% UI 581·1-1686·5) people aged 35 years and older, with 666·7 million (80% UI 364·9-997·6) being aged 50 years or older. The estimated number of blind people increased by 17·6%, from 30·6 million (80% UI 9·9-57·3) in 1990 to 36·0 million (80% UI 12·9-65·4) in 2015. This change was attributable to three factors, namely an increase because of population growth (38·4%), population ageing after accounting for population growth (34·6%), and reduction in age-specific prevalence (-36·7%). The number of people with moderate and severe visual impairment also increased, from 159·9 million

  3. Geographic and temporal trends in the molecular epidemiology and genetic mechanisms of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance: an individual-patient- and sequence-level meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhee, Soo-Yon; Blanco, Jose Luis; Jordan, Michael R; Taylor, Jonathan; Lemey, Philippe; Varghese, Vici; Hamers, Raph L; Bertagnolio, Silvia; Rinke de Wit, Tobias F; Aghokeng, Avelin F; Albert, Jan; Avi, Radko; Avila-Rios, Santiago; Bessong, Pascal O; Brooks, James I; Boucher, Charles A B; Brumme, Zabrina L; Busch, Michael P; Bussmann, Hermann; Chaix, Marie-Laure; Chin, Bum Sik; D'Aquin, Toni T; De Gascun, Cillian F; Derache, Anne; Descamps, Diane; Deshpande, Alaka K; Djoko, Cyrille F; Eshleman, Susan H; Fleury, Herve; Frange, Pierre; Fujisaki, Seiichiro; Harrigan, P Richard; Hattori, Junko; Holguin, Africa; Hunt, Gillian M; Ichimura, Hiroshi; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Katzenstein, David; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Kim, Jerome H; Kim, Sung Soon; Li, Yanpeng; Lutsar, Irja; Morris, Lynn; Ndembi, Nicaise; Ng, Kee Peng; Paranjape, Ramesh S; Peeters, Martine; Poljak, Mario; Price, Matt A; Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon L; Reyes-Terán, Gustavo; Rolland, Morgane; Sirivichayakul, Sunee; Smith, Davey M; Soares, Marcelo A; Soriano, Vincent V; Ssemwanga, Deogratius; Stanojevic, Maja; Stefani, Mariane A; Sugiura, Wataru; Sungkanuparph, Somnuek; Tanuri, Amilcar; Tee, Kok Keng; Truong, Hong-Ha M; van de Vijver, David A M C; Vidal, Nicole; Yang, Chunfu; Yang, Rongge; Yebra, Gonzalo; Ioannidis, John P A; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Shafer, Robert W

    2015-04-01

    Regional and subtype-specific mutational patterns of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) are essential for informing first-line antiretroviral (ARV) therapy guidelines and designing diagnostic assays for use in regions where standard genotypic resistance testing is not affordable. We sought to understand the molecular epidemiology of TDR and to identify the HIV-1 drug-resistance mutations responsible for TDR in different regions and virus subtypes. We reviewed all GenBank submissions of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase sequences with or without protease and identified 287 studies published between March 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013, with more than 25 recently or chronically infected ARV-naïve individuals. These studies comprised 50,870 individuals from 111 countries. Each set of study sequences was analyzed for phylogenetic clustering and the presence of 93 surveillance drug-resistance mutations (SDRMs). The median overall TDR prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), south/southeast Asia (SSEA), upper-income Asian countries, Latin America/Caribbean, Europe, and North America was 2.8%, 2.9%, 5.6%, 7.6%, 9.4%, and 11.5%, respectively. In SSA, there was a yearly 1.09-fold (95% CI: 1.05-1.14) increase in odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up attributable to an increase in non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance. The odds of NNRTI-associated TDR also increased in Latin America/Caribbean (odds ratio [OR] = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06-1.25), North America (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.12-1.26), Europe (OR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.13), and upper-income Asian countries (OR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.12-1.55). In SSEA, there was no significant change in the odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up (OR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.92-1.02). An analysis limited to sequences with mixtures at less than 0.5% of their nucleotide positions—a proxy for recent infection—yielded trends comparable to those obtained using the complete dataset. Four NNRTI SDRMs—K101E, K103N, Y181C, and G190A

  4. Alternatives forms of political participation in Japan 1983-2003. The 1996 Okinawa Referendum

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    Emma Mendoza Martínez

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article it is depicted the evolution of the civil society, that gradually brings to the citizens an increasingly weight in the decision-making process in Japan, where the society traditionally has been regarded as highly hierarchical. Some of the most remarkable events headed for the decentralization and to a new decision-making schema more opened to the public opinion, are mentioned. It is emphasized the importance of the initiative taken by organized groups of civilians for the appropriate functioning of this schema. As an example, the interaction between the local resident interests and the national politics in the case of the United States’ military bases established in Okinawa is examined.

  5. The epidemiology of suicide and attempted suicide in Dutch general practice 1983-2003.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquet, R.L.; Bartelds, A.I.M.; Kerkhof, A.J.F.M.; Schellevis, F.G.; Zee, J. van der

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Many patients attempting or committing suicide consult their general practitioner (GP) in the preceding period, indicating that GPs might play an important role in prevention. The aim of the present study was to analyse the epidemiology of suicidal behaviour in Dutch general practice in

  6. Helminth infections among long-term-residents and settled immigrants in Qatar in the decade from 2005 to 2014: temporal trends and varying prevalence among subjects from different regional origins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Madi, Marawan A; Behnke, Jerzy M; Boughattas, Sonia; Al-Thani, Asma; Doiphode, Sanjay H; Deshmukh, Anand

    2016-03-16

    Travel and migration from developing regions, where tropical diseases are common, to more developed industrialised nations can contribute to the introduction and subsequent spread of infections. With its rapidly expanding economy, Qatar has attracted vast numbers of immigrant workers in the last two decades, often from countries with poor socio-economic levels. Many used to arrive with patent intestinal parasitic infections. We analysed the prevalence of helminth infections in a dataset of 29,286 records of subjects referred for stool examination at the Hamad Medical Corporation over the course of a decade (2005 to 2014, inclusive). Overall prevalence of combined helminth infections was low (1.86 %) but there were significant temporal trends, age and sex effects and those arising from the region of origin of the subjects. The most common helminths were hookworms (overall prevalence 1.22 %), which accounted for 70.1 % of cases, and therefore patterns for combined helminth infections were largely driven by hookworms. In both cases, and also in Trichuris trichiura and Ascaris lumbricoides, prevalence peaked in 2008, since when prevalence has been steadily falling. Helminth infections were largely concentrated among subjects from five Asian countries (Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan), and there was a highly biased prevalence in favour of male subjects in all cases. Prevalence of all three nematodes peaked in age class 7 (mean age 25.5 years, range = 20-29) and there were significant interactions between region of origin, sex of subjects and prevalence of hookworms. These results offer optimism that prevalence will continue to decline in the years ahead, especially if control is targeted at those most at risk of carrying infections.

  7. Temporal networks

    CERN Document Server

    Saramäki, Jari

    2013-01-01

    The concept of temporal networks is an extension of complex networks as a modeling framework to include information on when interactions between nodes happen. Many studies of the last decade examine how the static network structure affect dynamic systems on the network. In this traditional approach  the temporal aspects are pre-encoded in the dynamic system model. Temporal-network methods, on the other hand, lift the temporal information from the level of system dynamics to the mathematical representation of the contact network itself. This framework becomes particularly useful for cases where there is a lot of structure and heterogeneity both in the timings of interaction events and the network topology. The advantage compared to common static network approaches is the ability to design more accurate models in order to explain and predict large-scale dynamic phenomena (such as, e.g., epidemic outbreaks and other spreading phenomena). On the other hand, temporal network methods are mathematically and concept...

  8. Project Temporalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tryggestad, Kjell; Justesen, Lise; Mouritsen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore how animals can become stakeholders in interaction with project management technologies and what happens with project temporalities when new and surprising stakeholders become part of a project and a recognized matter of concern to be taken...... into account. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on a qualitative case study of a project in the building industry. The authors use actor-network theory (ANT) to analyze the emergence of animal stakeholders, stakes and temporalities. Findings – The study shows how project temporalities can...... multiply in interaction with project management technologies and how conventional linear conceptions of project time may be contested with the emergence of new non-human stakeholders and temporalities. Research limitations/implications – The study draws on ANT to show how animals can become stakeholders...

  9. Magnitude, tendência temporal e fatores associados à anemia em crianças do Estado da Paraíba Magnitud, tendencia temporal y factores asociados a la anemia en niños del Estado de Paraíba Magnitude, time trends and factors associate with anemia in children in the state of Paraíba, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheila Sherezaide Rocha Gondim

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência da anemia em crianças, sua tendência temporal e identificar fatores associados. MÉTODOS: Estudo de corte transversal, de base populacional, envolvendo 1.108 crianças, com idade entre seis e 59 meses, de ambos os sexos, do Estado da Paraíba, em 2007. A hemoglobina foi analisada em sangue venoso com contador automático. Foram considerados para anemia valores OBJETIVO: Estimar la prevalencia de la anemia en niños, su tendencia temporal e identificar factores asociados. MÉTODOS: Estudio de corte transversal, de base poblacional, involucrando 1.108 niños, con edad entre 6 a 59 meses, de ambos sexos, del Estado de Paraíba, en 2007. La hemoglobina fue analizada en sangre venosa con contador automático. Se consideraron para anemia valores OBJECTIVE: To estimate the magnitude of the anemia, to analyze the time trends and investigate the factors associated with this disturbance in children in the state of Paraíba, Brazil. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey, of population-based, with 1108 children, aged 6 to 59 months, both sexes in the state of Paraíba. Hemoglobin (Hb in venous blood was analyzed with an automatic counter. The social-economic and demographic characteristics of children were obtained by questionnaire. Proportions were compared by Pearson's chi-squared test, and the association between hemoglobin concentrations and potential risk factors was tested by regression model Poisson. The time trend of anemia was assessed by the increase/decreased in the prevalence of anemia, using as comparison the prevalence observed in the years 1982, 1992 and 2007. RESULTS: The prevalence of anemia (Hb < 11.0 g/dl in the state of Paraíba was 36.5% (CI95% 33.7 to 39.3. It was observed that 1.3% (CI95% 0.7 to 1.8 were in severe form (Hb <7.0 g/dl, 11% (CI95% 9.4 to 13.5 in a moderate form and 87.6% (CI95% 79.1 to 91.2 in the mild form. There was an increase 88.5% in cases of anemia between the years 1982-1992 and

  10. Mortalidade por insuficiência cardíaca: análise ampliada e tendência temporal em três estados do Brasil Mortalidad por insuficiencia cardiaca: análisis ampliado y tendencia temporal en tres estados de Brasil Mortality due to heart failure: extended analysis and temporal trend in three states of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Nagib Gaui

    2010-01-01

    do Sul, del 1999 a 2005. MÉTODOS: Las informaciones se obtuvieron de los certificados de óbito examinados en los tres estados. La mortalidad por IC se evaluó de modo restricto (causa básica de muerte, modo amplio (presente en cualquier línea del certificado y modo ampliado (todos los códigos con presencia de IC. RESULTADOS: Las tasas específicas de mortalidad presentaron tendencias de caídas nítidas en los grupos de edad, excepto en los de 80 años o más. Las tasas aumentaron con la edad, siendo mayores en los hombres, de forma clara, hasta los 80 años. Las tasas de mortalidad por IC fueron tres veces mayores en el modo amplio que en el modo restricto. El modo ampliado agregó además un 20% de óbitos en que había IC. CONCLUSIÓN: Los resultados de este estudio muestran tendencias de caídas en las tasas de mortalidad por IC en el conjunto de los tres estados - cerca del 43% del Brasil -, de 1999 a 2005. La metodología de causas múltiples de muerte, además de las básicas, permite presentar dimensión más amplia de la importancia de la IC como causa de óbito. La selección adecuada de los códigos de Clasificación Internacional de Enfermedades (CIE, que comprenden la totalidad del fenómeno de IC, permanece como desafío para futuros estudios.BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF is a chronic disease with high prevalence and mortality rates. The mortality due to HF in Brazil has been studied more frequently using hospitalization data. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the mortality rates due to HF by sex and age range, in three states of Brazil, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul, from 1999 to 2005. METHODS: The data were obtained from death certificates assessed in the three states. The mortality due to HF was assessed in the restricted (underlying cause of death, comprehensive (mentioned in any line of the death certificate and extended (all codes with the presence of HF forms. RESULTS: The specific rates of mortality presented a clear decrease trend

  11. Temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter; Saramäki, Jari

    2012-10-01

    A great variety of systems in nature, society and technology-from the web of sexual contacts to the Internet, from the nervous system to power grids-can be modeled as graphs of vertices coupled by edges. The network structure, describing how the graph is wired, helps us understand, predict and optimize the behavior of dynamical systems. In many cases, however, the edges are not continuously active. As an example, in networks of communication via e-mail, text messages, or phone calls, edges represent sequences of instantaneous or practically instantaneous contacts. In some cases, edges are active for non-negligible periods of time: e.g., the proximity patterns of inpatients at hospitals can be represented by a graph where an edge between two individuals is on throughout the time they are at the same ward. Like network topology, the temporal structure of edge activations can affect dynamics of systems interacting through the network, from disease contagion on the network of patients to information diffusion over an e-mail network. In this review, we present the emergent field of temporal networks, and discuss methods for analyzing topological and temporal structure and models for elucidating their relation to the behavior of dynamical systems. In the light of traditional network theory, one can see this framework as moving the information of when things happen from the dynamical system on the network, to the network itself. Since fundamental properties, such as the transitivity of edges, do not necessarily hold in temporal networks, many of these methods need to be quite different from those for static networks. The study of temporal networks is very interdisciplinary in nature. Reflecting this, even the object of study has many names-temporal graphs, evolving graphs, time-varying graphs, time-aggregated graphs, time-stamped graphs, dynamic networks, dynamic graphs, dynamical graphs, and so on. This review covers different fields where temporal graphs are considered

  12. Distribución geográfica y evolución temporal de la mortalidad evitable en Cataluña (1986-2001 Geographical distribution and time trends in avoidable mortality in Catalonia, Spain (1986-2001

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    M. Arán Barés

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Analizar la evolución temporal y la distribución geográfica por sectores sanitarios de la mortalidad evitable en Cataluña. Material y métodos: Se analizó la mortalidad evitable según la clasificación utilizada en el Departamento de Salud de Cataluña por sectores sanitarios durante el período 1986-2001 y se agruparon las causas en tratables o prevenibles. Se calcularon las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por el método directo e indirecto y la razón de mortalidad comparativa para el grupo de tratables y prevenibles y para los 46 sectores sanitarios. También se calculó el promedio de cambio anual ajustado por edad mediante la regresión de Poisson de la mortalidad evitable y general. Resultados: El total de defunciones evitables fue 61.261 (el 7,3% de la mortalidad general. 10.623 (17,34% se clasificaron como tratables y 50.638 (82,65% como prevenibles. El promedio de cambio anual para las causas evitables fue del -2,43% (intervalo de confianza [IC] del 95%, -2,60 a -2,26, superior al -1,57% (IC del 95%, -1,61 a -1,52 de la mortalidad general. Las tasas fueron más elevadas para las causas prevenibles que para las tratables, aunque en ambos grupos se apreció un descenso de la mortalidad. El sector sanitario del Segrià destaca por presentar sobremortalidad en los 2 períodos y en los 2 grupos de causas. Cuatro sectores sanitarios presentan un aumento significativo de la mortalidad por causas prevenibles, pero ninguno por causas tratables. Conclusiones: En Cataluña, durante el período 1986-2001 se produce un descenso de la mortalidad evitable, mayor que el de la mortalidad general. La distribución geográfica muestra una gran dispersión, aunque se identifican claramente zonas en las que es necesaria la intervención preventiva.Objectives: To analyze time trends and geographical variation in avoidable mortality by health areas in Catalonia. Material and methods: Avoidable mortality was analyzed according to the

  13. Tendência temporal da amamentação na cidade do Rio de Janeiro: 1996-2006 Tendencia temporal del amamantamiento en la ciudad de Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: 1996-2006 Time trend in breast-feeding in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil: 1996-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inês Rugani Ribeiro de Castro

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência temporal da prática de aleitamento materno (AM e de aleitamento materno exclusivo (AME. MÉTODOS: Foram analisados dados de sistema de monitoramento baseado em inquéritos realizados nos anos de 1996, 1998, 2000, 2003 e 2006 durante a Campanha Nacional de Imunização na cidade do Rio de Janeiro, RJ. A população de estudo foi constituída de 19.044 crianças menores de um ano de idade que compareceram aos postos de vacinação. Para cada ano foi estudada uma amostra probabilística por conglomerado (postos de vacinação, auto-ponderada representativa da população de crianças menores de 12 meses (6 e em AMEOBJETIVO: Analizar la tendencia temporal de la práctica del amamantamiento materno (AM y del amamantamiento materno exclusivo (AME. MÉTODOS: Fueron analizados datos del sistema de monitoreo con base en pesquisas realizadas en los años de 1996, 1998, 2000, 2003 y 2006 durante la Campaña Nacional de Inmunización en la ciudad de Rio de Janeiro, Sureste de Brasil. La población de estudio fue constituida por 19.044 niños menores de un año de edad que asistieron a los puestos de vacunación. Para cada año fue estudiada una muestra probabilística por conglomerado (puestos de vacunación, autoponderada representativa de la población de niños menores de 12 meses (6 y en AMEOBJECTIVE: To analyze time trend in breast-feeding (BF and exclusive breast-feeding (EBF. METHODS: Data from a monitoring system, based on surveys conducted during the National Immunization Campaign in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil, in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2003 and 2006, were analyzed. Study population was comprised of 19,044 children younger than one year of age, who were present in vaccination stations. A probability cluster sample (vaccination stations, self-weighted and representative of the population of children younger than 12 months of age (6 and EBF<6 were found in all categories of all maternal

  14. Temporal naturalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolin, Lee

    2015-11-01

    Two people may claim both to be naturalists, but have divergent conceptions of basic elements of the natural world which lead them to mean different things when they talk about laws of nature, or states, or the role of mathematics in physics. These disagreements do not much affect the ordinary practice of science which is about small subsystems of the universe, described or explained against a background, idealized to be fixed. But these issues become crucial when we consider including the whole universe within our system, for then there is no fixed background to reference observables to. I argue here that the key issue responsible for divergent versions of naturalism and divergent approaches to cosmology is the conception of time. One version, which I call temporal naturalism, holds that time, in the sense of the succession of present moments, is real, and that laws of nature evolve in that time. This is contrasted with timeless naturalism, which holds that laws are immutable and the present moment and its passage are illusions. I argue that temporal naturalism is empirically more adequate than the alternatives, because it offers testable explanations for puzzles its rivals cannot address, and is likely a better basis for solving major puzzles that presently face cosmology and physics. This essay also addresses the problem of qualia and experience within naturalism and argues that only temporal naturalism can make a place for qualia as intrinsic qualities of matter.

  15. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  16. Temporal contingency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C.R.; Craig, Andrew R.; Shahan, Timothy A.

    2015-01-01

    Contingency, and more particularly temporal contingency, has often figured in thinking about the nature of learning. However, it has never been formally defined in such a way as to make it a measure that can be applied to most animal learning protocols. We use elementary information theory to define contingency in such a way as to make it a measurable property of almost any conditioning protocol. We discuss how making it a measurable construct enables the exploration of the role of different contingencies in the acquisition and performance of classically and operantly conditioned behavior. PMID:23994260

  17. Temporal contingency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Craig, Andrew R; Shahan, Timothy A

    2014-01-01

    Contingency, and more particularly temporal contingency, has often figured in thinking about the nature of learning. However, it has never been formally defined in such a way as to make it a measure that can be applied to most animal learning protocols. We use elementary information theory to define contingency in such a way as to make it a measurable property of almost any conditioning protocol. We discuss how making it a measurable construct enables the exploration of the role of different contingencies in the acquisition and performance of classically and operantly conditioned behavior. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Temporal Glare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ritschel, Tobias; Ihrke, Matthias; Frisvad, Jeppe Revall

    2009-01-01

    Glare is a consequence of light scattered within the human eye when looking at bright light sources. This effect can be exploited for tone mapping since adding glare to the depiction of high-dynamic range (HDR) imagery on a low-dynamic range (LDR) medium can dramatically increase perceived contra...... to initially static HDR images. By conducting psychophysical studies, we validate that our method improves perceived brightness and that dynamic glare-renderings are often perceived as more attractive depending on the chosen scene.......Glare is a consequence of light scattered within the human eye when looking at bright light sources. This effect can be exploited for tone mapping since adding glare to the depiction of high-dynamic range (HDR) imagery on a low-dynamic range (LDR) medium can dramatically increase perceived contrast....... Even though most, if not all, subjects report perceiving glare as a bright pattern that fluctuates in time, up to now it has only been modeled as a static phenomenon. We argue that the temporal properties of glare are a strong means to increase perceived brightness and to produce realistic...

  19. Skiing trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles R. Goeldner; Stacy Standley

    1980-01-01

    A brief historical overview of skiing is presented, followed by a review of factors such as energy, population trends, income, sex, occupation and attitudes which affect the future of skiing. A. C. Neilson's Sports Participation Surveys show that skiing is the second fastest growing sport in the country. Skiing Magazine's study indicates there are...

  20. Billing Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Billing Trends. Internet access: Bandwidth becoming analogous to electric power. Only maximum capacity (load) is fixed; Charges based on usage (units). Leased line bandwidth: Billing analogous to phone calls. But bandwidth is variable.

  1. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  2. Temporal trends in N2O flux dynamics in a Danish wetland – effects of plant-mediated gas transport of N2O and O2 following changes in water level and soil mineral-N availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Christian Juncher; Struwe, Sten; Elberling, Bo

    2012-01-01

    in subsurface N2O and O2 concentrations, water level (WL), light intensity as well as mineral-N availability. Weekly concentration profiles showed that seasonal variations in N2O concentrations were directly linked to the position of the WL and O2 availability at the capillary fringe above the WL. N2O flux....... Complex interactions between seasonal changes in O2 and mineral-N availability following near-surface WL fluctuations in combination with plant-mediated gas transport by P. arundinacea controlled the subsurface N2O concentrations and gas transport mechanisms responsible for N2O fluxes across the soil......–atmosphere interface. Results demonstrate the necessity for addressing this high temporal variability and potential plant transport of N2O in future studies of net N2O exchange across the soil–atmosphere interface....

  3. Temporal and Spatial Variations in Precipitation, Streamflow, Suspended-Sediment Loads and Yields, and Land-Condition Trend Analysis at the U.S. Army Pinon Canyon Maneuver Site, Las Animas County, Colorado, 1983 through 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, M.R.; Dupree, J.; Kuzmiak, J.M.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Army, began an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations in precipitation, streamflow, suspended-sediment loads and yields, changes in land condition, effects of the tributaries on the Purgatoire River and the possible relation of effects from military training to hydrology and land conditions that have occurred at Pinon Canyon Maneuver Site (PCMS) from 1983 through 2007. Data were collected for precipitation (19 stations) and streamflow and sediment load (5 tributary and 2 main-stem Purgatoire River stations) during 1983 through 2007 for various time periods. The five tributary stations were Van Bremer Arroyo near Model, Taylor Arroyo below Rock Crossing, Lockwood Canyon Creek near Thatcher, Red Rock Canyon Creek at the mouth, and Bent Canyon Creek at the mouth. In addition, data were collected at two Purgatoire River stations: Purgatoire River near Thatcher and Purgatoire River at Rock Crossing.

  4. Prevalence of dental caries and influencing factors, time trends over a 30-year period in an adult population. Epidemiological studies between 1983 and 2013 in the county of Dalarna, Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edman, Kristina; Öhrn, Kerstin; Nordström, Birgitta; Holmlund, Anders

    2016-07-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of dental caries in an adult population using four different cross-sectional studies over a 30-year period and to assess its possible associations with socio-economic and socio-behavioural factors. Four cross-sectional epidemiological studies were performed in the county of Dalarna, Sweden, in 1983, 2003, 2008 and 2013. Random samples of 1012-2244 individuals, aged 20-85 years, who answered a questionnaire about socio-economic and socio-behavioural factors, were radiographically and clinically examined. The proportion of individuals with at least one decayed surface (DS) was 58% in 1983 and significantly lower, 34% in 2008 (p dental visits, limited financial resources for dental care, smoking, education below university, male gender, daily medication and single living were positively and statistically associated with manifest caries. The declining trend in the prevalence of manifest caries seems to be broken. In the oldest age group mean number of DS was higher in 2013 compared with 2008, indicating a possible beginning of an increase. This needs special attention as this group increases in the population, retaining natural teeth high up in age. Manifest caries was found to be associated with socio-economic and socio-behavioural factors.

  5. Health effects of prolonged low-dose rate gamma-irradiation of a human population in Taiwan, 1983-2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, W. P.; Hsieh, W. A.; Lin, Y. P.; Huang, S.; Hwang, B. F.; Lee, S. D.; Chen, J. C.; Tsai, M.; Yen, N. P.

    2004-01-01

    Health effects of low dose-rate , low LET irradiation on large numbers of human population have been rare and less well known and studied. However, the standards for safety and health regulation for radiation exposure depend on solid observations of related studies. during 1983 to mid 1990s, an unusual contamination occurred that was derived from several lost Co-60 orphan sources and un-intentionally recycled into thousands tons construction steels, eventually employed for construction in several cities in Taiwan. Continuous studies on the immediate and prolonged health effects of these 7,000 subjects, with more than 60% have been exposed during prenatal, childhood, and adolescents periods, have been able to form a stron scientific avenue to provide evidences for unusual observation on a human population in natural environments. Moreover, an exposure reconstruction program, co-joined with scientists in National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health and Oregan State University in the U. S.; were initiated and continued throughout the study program that critically provided dose response analysis feasible. These studies include bone marrow/hematological changes, lens opacities, thyroid function and thyroid glands abnormalities, growth and development in physical parameters, helper and suppressor T cell populations, serum p53 protein levels, and cancer incidences and risks. Moreover, several cytogenetic markers have been employed to analyze the subtle changes in the somatic tissues. These include frequencies of micronuclei formation, chromosomal aberrations and chromosomal translocations on circulating T-lymphocytes. Functional studies including IQ testing on prenatally exposed children and the reproductive potential as time-to-pregnancy, TTP, were also observed in married couples with offspring. The observations, published in more than 20 manuscripts, will be summarized and presented for future collaborative studies, based on the established database, case registration and cohort management programs (funded by the National Science Council, and national Health Research institute Research program. Taiwan). (Author)

  6. Industry trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This section discusses the US energy supply and demand situation including projections for energy use, the clean coal industry (constraints of regulation on investment in new technologies, technology trends, and current pollution control efficiency), opportunities in clean coal technology (Phase 2 requirements of Title 4 of the Clean Air Act, scrubber demand for lime and limestone, and demand for low sulfur coal), and the international market of clean coal technologies

  7. Temporal trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the blood of newborns from New York State during 1997 through 2011: analysis of dried blood spots from the newborn screening program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Wan-Li; Yun, Sehun; Bell, Erin M; Druschel, Charlotte M; Caggana, Michele; Aldous, Kenneth M; Buck Louis, Germaine M; Kannan, Kurunthachalam

    2013-07-16

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are ubiquitous environmental pollutants, and on a global basis, North American populations are exposed to the highest doses of PBDEs. In response to the exponential increase in human exposure to PBDEs during the late 1990s, some PBDE formulations were phased out from production in the early 2000s. The effectiveness of the phase-out of commercial penta-BDE and octa-BDE mixtures in 2004 in the U.S. on human exposure levels is not known. Dried blood spots (DBSs), collected for the newborn screening program (NSP) in the U.S., are a valuable resource for the elucidation of trends in exposure to environmental pollutants in newborns. In this study, seven PBDE congeners were determined by gas chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry (GC-HRMS) in archived DBS samples (in total, 51 blood spot composites from 1224 newborns) collected from newborns in New York State (NYS) from 1997 to 2011. The most frequently detected PBDE congener was BDE-47, with a detection rate (DR) of 86%, followed by BDE-99 (DR: 45%) and BDE-100 (DR: 43%). The mean concentrations determined during 1997 through 2011 in the whole blood of newborns were 0.128, 0.040, and 0.012 ng/mL for BDE-47, -99, and -100, respectively. A significant correlation was found among the concentrations of three major congeners (p < 0.001). PBDE concentrations were similar during 1997 through 2002 and, thereafter, decreased significantly, which was similar to the trends observed for perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in DBS samples. Occurrence of PBDEs in the whole blood of newborns confirms that these compounds do cross the placental barrier.

  8. Quantum Temporal Imaging

    OpenAIRE

    Tsang, Mankei; Psaltis, Demetri

    2006-01-01

    The concept of quantum temporal imaging is proposed to manipulate the temporal correlation of entangled photons. In particular, we show that time correlation and anticorrelation can be converted to each other using quantum temporal imaging.

  9. Temporal Trends in Late Preterm and Early Term Birth Rates in 6 High-Income Countries in North America and Europe and Association With Clinician-Initiated Obstetric Interventions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richards, Jennifer L.; Kramer, Michael S.; Deb-Rinker, Paromita

    2016-01-01

    Importance: Clinicians have been urged to delay the use of obstetric interventions (eg, labor induction, cesarean delivery) until 39 weeks or later in the absence of maternal or fetal indications for intervention. Objective: To describe recent trends in late preterm and early term birth rates in 6......: Use of clinician-initiated obstetric intervention (either labor induction or prelabor cesarean delivery) during delivery. Main Outcomes and Measures: Annual country-specific late preterm (34-36 weeks) and early term (37-38 weeks) birth rates. Results: The study population included 2 415 432 Canadian...... births in 2006-2012 (3.6% late preterm; 18.7% early term); and 25 788 558 US births in 2006-2014 (6.0% late preterm; 26.9% early term). Late preterm birth rates decreased in Norway (3.9% to 3.5%) and the United States (6.8% to 5.7%). Early term birth rates decreased in Norway (17.6% to 16.8%), Sweden (19...

  10. Geographic variations and temporal trends of Salmonella-associated hospitalization in the U.S. elderly, 1991-2004: a time series analysis of the impact of HACCP regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, Kenneth K H; Webb, Patrick; Russell, Robert M; Naumova, Elena N

    2009-12-03

    About 1.4 million Salmonella infections, a common food-borne illness, occur in the U.S. annually; the elderly (aged 65 or above) are most susceptible. In 1997, the USDA introduced the Pathogen Reduction and Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points Systems (PR/HACCP) which demands regular Salmonella testing in various establishments processing meat products, such as broiler chickens. Impact evaluations of PR/HACCP on hospitalizations related to Salmonella are lacking. Hospitalization records of the U.S. elderly in 1991-2004 were obtained from the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services. Harmonic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the long-term trends of Salmonella-related hospitalizations in pre- and post-HACCP periods. Seasonal characteristics of the outcome in the nine Census divisions of the contiguous U.S. were also derived and contrasted. Predicted rates decreased in most divisions after 1997, except South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central. These three divisions also demonstrated higher overall hospitalization rates, pronounced seasonal patterns, and consistent times to peak at about 32nd to 34th week of the year. The impact of HACCP was geographically different. South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central divisions should be targeted in further Salmonella preventive programs. Further research is needed to identify the best program type and timing of implementation.

  11. Evaluation of secular trend and the existence of cases of clusters of bladder cancer in Goiania: descriptive study population-based; Avaliacao da tendencia temporal e da existencia de casos de clusters de cancer de bexiga em Goiania: estudo descritivo de base populacional

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonio, Gisele Guimaraes Daflon

    2008-07-01

    More than 20 years after the radiological accident with cesium-137 in the city of Goiania, there is still a feeling in local population that the number of cases of cancer in the city is growing up due to the past radiation exposure and that the number of people contaminated or exposed was higher than the number reported. The present study aims to evaluate the temporal trend and the space-time distribution of bladder cancer cases in Goiania from 1988 and 2003, taking into account that bladder cancer presents the highest risk coefficients per unit of radiation dose among solid cancers. The study population was composed of all incident cases of bladder cancer registered in the Population-Based Cancer Registry of Goiania, between 1988 and 2003.Temporal trend of bladder cancer incidence was analyzed by sex and age groups ( < 60 and {>=} 60 years of age) through polynomial regression using age standardized incidence rates of bladder cancer (world population). SaTscan was used to determine whether statistical significant geographic clusters of high incidence of bladder cancer cases can be located in the city. The results showed a significant increase of bladder cancer incidence rates in males of all ages (p= 0.025) and for age group higher or equal to 60 years old (p=O.022), and a stability in trends for female sex. In the space-time analysis, a cluster was identified, however without statistical significance (p=0.278) and its location has no relationship with the main focuses of contamination of the radiological accident in 1987. We concluded that, despite of the increase of incidence rates in males, this can be explained by the improvement in diagnostic procedures throughout time, being this increase still not perceived in females considering the small number of cases. As chance can not be ruled out as the explanation of the identified cluster, we do not suggest any further detailed investigation in this cluster, as the occurrence of cluster diseases in space can occur

  12. Temporal changes in patient characteristics and prior pharmacotherapy in patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation of atrial fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karasoy, Deniz; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Hansen, Jim

    2013-01-01

    Trends in patient selection and pharmacotherapy before radiofrequency ablation (RFA) of atrial fibrillation are not well studied. We examined temporal trends in RFA utilization on a nationwide scale in Denmark....

  13. Survey of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans and non-ortho-polychlorinated biphenyls in US meat and poultry, 2012-13: toxic equivalency levels, patterns, temporal trends and implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupton, Sara J; O'Keefe, Margaret; Muñiz-Ortiz, Jorge G; Clinch, Nelson; Basu, Pat

    2017-11-01

    The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) conducts a statistically based survey of the domestic meat supply (beef, pork, chicken and turkey) to determine current levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and non-ortho-polychlorinated biphenyls (no-PCBs) every 5 years. Fat samples for each slaughter class were collected from US federally licensed slaughter facilities. The samples were processed and analysed for 17 PCDD/Fs and three no-PCBs. The sum of PCDD, PCDF and no-PCB toxic equivalencies (sum-TEQ) calculated using 2005 toxic-equivalency factors for all slaughter classes ranged from non-detect (n.d.) to 6.47 pg TEQ g -1 lipid. The median sum-TEQs, when n.d. = 0.5 LOD, for beef, pork, chicken and turkey were 0.66, 0.12, 0.13 and 0.34 pg TEQ g -1 lipid respectively. A comparison of the current survey with the previous three surveys shows a declining trend, with decreasing differences between medians; differences between the median sum-TEQs from 2007-08 and 2012-13 were -10%, -29%, -33% and -25% for beef, pork, chicken and turkey respectively. Several beef samples underwent further characterisation and congener patterns from these beef samples suggested pentachlorophenol treated wood as the likely exposure source. US consumer exposure to these compounds is relatively low and no slaughter class contributed more than 26% to the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) chronic oral reference dose of 0.7 pg TEQ kg -1 bw day -1 .

  14. Towards General Temporal Aggregation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boehlen, Michael H.; Gamper, Johann; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2008-01-01

    associated with the management of temporal data. Indeed, temporal aggregation is complex and among the most difficult, and thus interesting, temporal functionality to support. This paper presents a general framework for temporal aggregation that accommodates existing kinds of aggregation, and it identifies...

  15. Temporal relationship between climate variability, Prosopis juliflora ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m satellite imageries for 2000 to 2014 were used to determine the temporal dynamics of P. juliflora invasion in the study area. Both temperature and rainfall trends showed marked variability over ...

  16. Disponibilidade de "açúcares de adição" no Brasil: distribuição, fontes alimentares e tendência temporal Availability of added sugars in Brazil: distribution, food sources and time trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Bertazzi Levy

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVOS: Estimar o consumo de "açúcar de adição" pela população brasileira, nos estratos regionais e socioeconômicos, destacando suas principais fontes alimentares e verificar a tendência do seu consumo nas últimas décadas. MÉTODOS: Contou-se com informações das Pesquisas de Orçamentos Familiares a partir da década de 80 sobre o tipo e a quantidade de alimentos e bebidas adquiridos pelas famílias brasileiras. Os indicadores analisados foram: % das calorias de açúcar no total calórico da dieta e % calórico das frações de açúcar de mesa e de açúcar adicionado aos alimentos pela indústria/kcal açúcar da dieta. RESULTADOS: Em 2002/03, 16,7% das calorias totais eram provenientes de "açúcar de adição" e sua participação mostrou-se elevada em todos os estratos regionais e de renda. A razão açúcar de mesa/açúcar adicionado pela indústria se inverte com o aumento da renda. A participação do açúcar de mesa nos últimos 15 anos foi reduzida, enquanto a contribuição do açúcar adicionado aos alimentos dobrou, especialmente por meio do consumo de refrigerantes e biscoitos. CONCLUSÕES: O consumo de açúcar no Brasil excede largamente a recomendação da OMS e verificou-se importante alteração nas fontes de consumo.OBJECTIVE: To describe the regional and socio-economic distribution of consumption of added sugar in Brazil in 2002/03, particularly products, sources of sugar and trends in the past 15 years. METHODS: The study used data from Household Budget Surveys since the 1980s about the type and quantity of food and beverages bought by Brazilian families. Different indicators were analyzed: % of sugar calories over the total diet energy and caloric % of table sugar fractions and sugar added to processed food/ sugar calories of diet. RESULTS: In 2002/03, of the total energy available for consumption, 16.7% came from added sugar in all regional and socio-economic strata. The table sugar/ sugar added to

  17. Análise da tendência temporal de dano renal agudo entre pacientes graves conforme polimorfi smos I/D e -262A > T da enzima conversora da angiotensina Temporal trends in acute renal dysfunction among critically ill patients according to I/D and -262A > T ACE polymorphisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Alberto Rodrigues Pedroso

    2010-06-01

    their development. Recent studies correlate the susceptibility to organ dysfunction in critically ill patients with genetic inheritance. Many of them consider ACE gene could be a possible candidate to elucidate a genetic predisposition or a genetic risk factor. We aimed to examine the effects of I/D and -262A > T ACE polymorphisms in the renal function in severely ill southern Brazilians patients. A multi-organic worldwide known failure score, the SOFA (sequential organ failure assessment, was used to determine the basal health state at first day (ICU admission. Considering admission SOFA score and trend of renal function (measured by daily renal SOFA scores, with daily measure of serum creatinine and diuresis, we hypothesize that ACE polymorphisms could influence in the trend of renal function in ICU patients. A total of 153 critically ill adult patients (79 men were included in this study. We monitored the patients daily during their entire ICU and post-ICU (hospital stay (measured from the ICU admission day to a maximum of 224 days. We observed progression to renal failure (SOFA scores 3 and 4 in first seven days of ICU stay and need for dialysis. The general genotypic frequencies in our sample were II = 0.17; ID = 0.46; DD = 0.37 and AA = 0.30; AT = 0.55; TT = 0.15, and the allelic frequencies were I = 0.40; D = 0.60 and A = 0.56; T = 0.44. This is the first study to verify the influence of I/D and -262A > T ACE polymorphisms in acute renal dysfunction among critically ill patients. No significant association was found between genotypes or allele frequencies and the trend of the renal function. The I/D and -262A > T ACE polymorphisms have no significant impact on the trend of renal function during the first week of ICU stay, neither any influence in mortality in critically ill patients.

  18. Evolución temporal y distribución geográfica de la mortalidad por suicidio en Cataluña y España (1986-2002 Geographical distribution and time trends of suicide mortality in Catalonia and Spain (1986-2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Arán Barés

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Estudiar la evolución temporal de la mortalidad por suicidio en Cataluña (1986-2002 y España (1986-2001, y analizar su distribución geográfica en esta comunidad autónoma. Métodos: Se calcularon las tasas anuales estandarizadas por edad para ambos sexos por el método directo y el porcentaje de cambio anual mediante un modelo de regresión de Poisson, por sexo y grupos de edad para Cataluña (1986-2002 y España (1986-2001. Para Cataluña, se calculó la razón de mortalidad estandarizada por el método indirecto (RME por sexo, para los 46 sectores sanitarios y para todo el período, y la razón de mortalidad comparativa (RMC y los intervalos de confianza (IC del 95% agrupando los años en período 1 (1986-1994 y período 2 (1995-2002. Resultados: En Cataluña, la mortalidad en hombres es inferior que en España y se aprecia un incremento (no significativo en el período estudiado en ambos territorios; en mujeres, la evolución y la magnitud de las tasas son similares a las del conjunto del Estado, y en los dos lugares se observa un ligero descenso (significativo de las tasas. La evolución según la edad y el sexo muestra patrones diferenciados, destacando el descenso de las tasas en edades avanzadas en ambos sexos y el aumento en jóvenes en España y Cataluña. Los sectores sanitarios de la zona central, noreste y sur de Cataluña presentan una mortalidad superior a la media. Conclusiones: La evolución temporal de la mortalidad por suicidio en Cataluña y España muestra patrones diferentes según la edad y el sexo. En la distribución territorial en Cataluña se observa una progresiva homogeneización por sectores sanitarios.Objective: To analyze time trends in Catalonia (1986-2002 and Spain (1986-2001 in suicide mortality and its geographical variation by health areas in Catalonia. Methods: Standard annual mortality rates were calculated by the direct method for Catalonia (1986-2002 and Spain (1986-2001 (standard

  19. Tendência temporal de asma em crianças e adolescentes no Brasil no período de 1998 a 2008 Tendencia temporal de asma en niños y adolescentes en Brasil en el período de 1998 a 2008 Time trend of asthma in children and adolescents in Brazil, 1998-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando César Wehrmeister

    2012-04-01

    fue observado en la región Sureste y Norte (1,4%. Entre el grupo de adolescentes, la prevalencia de asma fue de 4,4% en 1998, 5,0% en 2003 y 5,5% en 2008, con aumento de 2,2% al año. En la región Noreste, el aumento anual en la prevalencia de asma fue de 3,5%. Los mayores incrementos fueron observados entre los varones y entre habitantes de la zona rural. CONCLUSIONES: A pesar de el asma presentar una disminución en países en desarrollo, en Brasil, los resultados señalan un incremento del asma entre niños y adolescentes en el período de 1998 y 2008, especialmente en la zona rural.OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends in asthma prevalence in children and adolescents between 1998 and 2008 in Brazil. METHODS: Data on asthma prevalence from the 1998, 2003 and 2008 National Household Sample Surveys were analyzed. The sample was comprised of 141,402, 144,443 and 134,032 individuals in 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively, and the analysis was adjusted for the sample design. Trends in asthma prevalence were described for sex, Brazilian regions and place of residence of children (zero to nine years of age and adolescents (ten to 19 years of age. RESULTS: The prevalence of asthma in children was 7.7% in 1998, 8.1% in 2003 and 8.5% in 2008, with an annual increase of 1%. The highest annual increase was observed in the Southeast and North regions (1.4%. Among adolescents, the prevalence of asthma was 4.4% in 1998, 5.0% in 2003 and 5.5% in 2008, with an increase of 2.2% per year. In the Northeast region, the annual increase in the prevalence of asthma was 3.5%. The greatest increases were observed in boys and in residents of rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Although asthma has decreased in some developing countries, the results found in Brazil point to an increase in this disease in children and adolescents between 1998 and 2008, especially in rural areas.

  20. Spatial and Temporal Trends of Global Pollination Benefit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lautenbach, Sven; Seppelt, Ralf; Liebscher, Juliane; Dormann, Carsten F.

    2012-01-01

    Pollination is a well-studied and at the same time a threatened ecosystem service. A significant part of global crop production depends on or profits from pollination by animals. Using detailed information on global crop yields of 60 pollination dependent or profiting crops, we provide a map of global pollination benefits on a 5′ by 5′ latitude-longitude grid. The current spatial pattern of pollination benefits is only partly correlated with climate variables and the distribution of cropland. The resulting map of pollination benefits identifies hot spots of pollination benefits at sufficient detail to guide political decisions on where to protect pollination services by investing in structural diversity of land use. Additionally, we investigated the vulnerability of the national economies with respect to potential decline of pollination services as the portion of the (agricultural) economy depending on pollination benefits. While the general dependency of the agricultural economy on pollination seems to be stable from 1993 until 2009, we see increases in producer prices for pollination dependent crops, which we interpret as an early warning signal for a conflict between pollination service and other land uses at the global scale. Our spatially explicit analysis of global pollination benefit points to hot spots for the generation of pollination benefits and can serve as a base for further planning of land use, protection sites and agricultural policies for maintaining pollination services. PMID:22563427

  1. Investigating the temporal trends in PAH, PCB and OCP ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-05-09

    May 9, 2013 ... mation on application of passive sampling in South Africa is available in the literature. This study was ..... molecular weight PAHs in the current study were on average up to 2 orders of magnitude lower ..... VAN REI WF (1987) The Hartbeespoort dam – a magnet to millions? In: Thornton JA and Walmsley RD ...

  2. Temporal trends of forest interior conditions in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt Riitters; James. Wickham

    2012-01-01

    Nature's benefits derived from forest interior environments cannot be sustained if the natural capital of forest interior area is not sustained. We analyzed the spatial patterns of forest loss and gain for the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2006 to determine whether forest interior environments were maintained at five spatial scales. A 1.1 percent net...

  3. Temporal precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    analysis showed that most of the stations during the northeast monsoon (NEM) and the inter monsoon. 1 (INT1) seasons and half of ..... mator and b in linear regression analysis for annual data ..... for the financial support given for the research.

  4. A Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile to Reflect Temporal Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufouil, Carole; Beiser, Alexa; McLure, Leslie A.; Wolf, Philip A.; Tzourio, Christophe; Howard, Virginia J; Westwood, Andrew J.; Himali, Jayandra J.; Sullivan, Lisa; Aparicio, Hugo J.; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; Ritchie, Karen; Kase, Carlos S.; Pikula, Aleksandra; Romero, Jose R.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Samieri, Cécilia; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Chêne, Genevieve; Howard, George; Seshadri, Sudha

    2017-01-01

    Background Age-adjusted stroke incidence has decreased over the past 50 years, likely due to changes in the prevalence and impact of various stroke risk factors. An updated version of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) might better predict current risks in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) and other cohorts. We compared the accuracy of the standard (Old), and of a revised (New) version of the FSRP in predicting the risk of all-stroke and ischemic stroke, and validated this new FSRP in two external cohorts, the 3 Cities (3C) and REGARDS studies. Methods We computed the old FSRP as originally described, and a new model that used the most recent epoch-specific risk factors' prevalence and hazard-ratios for persons ≥ 55 years and for the subsample ≥ 65 years (to match the age range in REGARDS and 3C studies respectively), and compared the efficacy of these models in predicting 5- and 10-year stroke risks. Results The new FSRP was a better predictor of current stroke risks in all three samples than the old FSRP (Calibration chi-squares of new/old FSRP: in men 64.0/12.1, 59.4/30.6 and 20.7/12.5; in women 42.5/4.1, 115.4/90.3 and 9.8/6.5 in FHS, REGARDS and 3C, respectively). In the REGARDS, the new FSRP was a better predictor among whites compared to blacks. Conclusions A more contemporaneous, new FSRP better predicts current risks in 3 large community samples and could serve as the basis for examining geographic and racial differences in stroke risk and the incremental diagnostic utility of novel stroke risk factors. PMID:28159800

  5. Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile to Reflect Temporal Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufouil, Carole; Beiser, Alexa; McLure, Leslie A; Wolf, Philip A; Tzourio, Christophe; Howard, Virginia J; Westwood, Andrew J; Himali, Jayandra J; Sullivan, Lisa; Aparicio, Hugo J; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; Ritchie, Karen; Kase, Carlos S; Pikula, Aleksandra; Romero, Jose R; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Samieri, Cécilia; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Chêne, Genevieve; Howard, George; Seshadri, Sudha

    2017-03-21

    Age-adjusted stroke incidence has decreased over the past 50 years, likely as a result of changes in the prevalence and impact of various stroke risk factors. An updated version of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) might better predict current risks in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) and other cohorts. We compared the accuracy of the standard (old) and of a revised (new) version of the FSRP in predicting the risk of all-stroke and ischemic stroke and validated this new FSRP in 2 external cohorts, the 3C (3 Cities) and REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) studies. We computed the old FSRP as originally described and a new model that used the most recent epoch-specific risk factor prevalence and hazard ratios for individuals ≥55 years of age and for the subsample ≥65 years of age (to match the age range in REGARDS and 3C studies, respectively) and compared the efficacy of these models in predicting 5- and 10-year stroke risks. The new FSRP was a better predictor of current stroke risks in all 3 samples than the old FSRP (calibration χ 2 of new/old FSRP: in men: 64.0/12.1, 59.4/30.6, and 20.7/12.5; in women: 42.5/4.1, 115.4/90.3, and 9.8/6.5 in FHS, REGARDS, and 3C, respectively). In the REGARDS, the new FSRP was a better predictor among whites compared with blacks. A more contemporaneous, new FSRP better predicts current risks in 3 large community samples and could serve as the basis for examining geographic and racial differences in stroke risk and the incremental diagnostic utility of novel stroke risk factors. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Water Resources Systems Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247 667, India. ∗. Corresponding author. e-mail: ..... adopting established meteorological techniques like ...... a decision support tool for the assessment of regional.

  7. Regional differences and temporal trends in male reproductive health disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordkap, Loa; Joensen, Ulla Nordström; Blomberg Jensen, Martin

    2012-01-01

    of various low-dose exposures to endocrine disrupters in our environment are responsible for the adverse effects in the male reproductive system. Semen quality may be the most sensitive marker of adverse environmental exposures, and we suggest that standardized surveillance studies of semen quality...... entities share the same patho-physiological etiology caused by disturbed testicular development in early fetal life. It seems likely that the rapid rise in TDS-associated conditions can, at least partly, be explained by environmental factors. Animal studies provide strong evidence that manmade chemicals...... to endocrine disrupters also in adulthood may affect semen quality and reproductive hormones. Causal relationships are inherently difficult to establish in humans, and a clear connection between the disorders and specific toxicants has not been established. It seems likely that the cumulative effects...

  8. Temporal and Spatial Melanoma Trends in Austria: An Ecological Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Haluza

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Annual solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR is mostly determined by latitude and altitude. Over the last decades, increasing UVR ground levels have been observed. Exposure to UVR is associated with a life-time risk to develop melanoma, a malign skin cancer. Thus, we hypothesized that melanoma incidence in Austria is associated with altitude of place of living and time of diagnosis. We investigated this hypothesis in an ecological study by district and year for Austrian melanoma incidence (1990–2010 and mortality (1970–2011 data. As expected, incidence rates increased with altitude (about 2% per 10 m and year (about 2%. Additionally, melanoma incidence rates were about 50% higher in urban than in rural districts. In contrast, mortality rates decreased with altitude (for males: 0.4% per 10 m, for women: 0.7% per 10 m, respectively. The observed discrepancy between incidence and mortality data could partly be explained by melanoma diagnosis at earlier tumor stage in districts with higher altitude. Possible reasons for this finding include higher awareness of patients, better diagnostic performance of medical professionals working at higher altitudes, or slower tumor growth due to protective effects of sun light-associated vitamin D synthesis.

  9. Temporal and Spatial Melanoma Trends in Austria: An Ecological Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haluza, Daniela; Simic, Stana; Moshammer, Hanns

    2014-01-01

    Annual solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is mostly determined by latitude and altitude. Over the last decades, increasing UVR ground levels have been observed. Exposure to UVR is associated with a life-time risk to develop melanoma, a malign skin cancer. Thus, we hypothesized that melanoma incidence in Austria is associated with altitude of place of living and time of diagnosis. We investigated this hypothesis in an ecological study by district and year for Austrian melanoma incidence (1990–2010) and mortality (1970–2011) data. As expected, incidence rates increased with altitude (about 2% per 10 m) and year (about 2%). Additionally, melanoma incidence rates were about 50% higher in urban than in rural districts. In contrast, mortality rates decreased with altitude (for males: 0.4% per 10 m, for women: 0.7% per 10 m, respectively). The observed discrepancy between incidence and mortality data could partly be explained by melanoma diagnosis at earlier tumor stage in districts with higher altitude. Possible reasons for this finding include higher awareness of patients, better diagnostic performance of medical professionals working at higher altitudes, or slower tumor growth due to protective effects of sun light-associated vitamin D synthesis. PMID:24398911

  10. Temporal trends of preservative allergy in Denmark (1985-2008)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob P; Engkilde, Kåre; Lundov, Michael D

    2010-01-01

    Most cosmetics and industrial products contain preservatives. Preservative allergy is common and, historically, changing contact allergy epidemics caused by preservatives have been observed. In 1997, Alan Dillarstone predicted a stable development of preservative allergy following mandatory...

  11. Temporal trends of preservative allergy in Denmark (1985-2008)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob P; Engkilde, Kåre; Lundov, Michael D

    2010-01-01

    Most cosmetics and industrial products contain preservatives. Preservative allergy is common and, historically, changing contact allergy epidemics caused by preservatives have been observed. In 1997, Alan Dillarstone predicted a stable development of preservative allergy following mandatory...... ingredient labelling on cosmetic products....

  12. Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    (2011–2099) in the middle catchment of Sutlej river basin, India. The future time series of ... to the Purvanchal in east and is arcuate in shape. It covers a vast area of ... of climate change because of the fact that perturba- tion occurring due to ...

  13. Temporal Shape Changes and Future Trends in European Automotive Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corrado Costa

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Evolution produces genuine novelty in morphology through the selection of competing designs as phenotypes. When applied to human creativity, the evolutionary paradigm can provide insight into the ways that our technology and its design are modified through time. The shape of European utilitarian cars in the past 60 years was analyzed in order to determine whether changes occur in a gradual fashion or through saltation, clarifying which are the more conserved and more variable parts of the designs. We also attempted to predict the future appearances of the cars within the next decade, discussing all results within the framework of relevant evolutionary-like equivalences. Here, we analyzed the modification in the shape of European utilitarian cars in the past 60 years by three-dimensional geometric morphometrics to test whether these changes occurred in a gradual or more saltatory fashion. The geometric morphometric shape analysis showed that even though car brands have always been preserving distinct shapes, all followed a gradual pattern of evolution which is now converging toward a more similar fusiform and compact asset. This process was described using Darwinian evolution as a metaphor to quantify and interpret changes over time and the societal pressures promoting them.

  14. Online Marketing Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Horecká, Ivana

    2015-01-01

    This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

  15. Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

    2017-07-26

    Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

  16. Trends in self-reported arterial hypertension in Brazilian adults: an analysis of data from the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey, 1998-2008 Tendência temporal de hipertensão arterial autorreferida em adultos: uma análise da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios, 1998-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludmila Correa Muniz

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the time trend in self-reported arterial hypertension from 1998 to 2008 in individuals older than 20 years in Brazil. Data were analyzed on prevalence of hypertension from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD for the years 1998, 2003, and 2008. The analysis considered the sampling complexity and included 203,419, 238,591, and 257,816 individuals in the years 1998, 2003, and 2008, respectively. The time trend in hypertension was analyzed by sex, family income, geographic regions of Brazil, and area of residence (urban versus rural, and the prevalence rates were adjusted for age. Prevalence of self-reported hypertension was 12.5% in 1998, 13% in 2003, and 13.9% in 2008, with an annual increase of 1.07%. The highest increases occurred in the Southeast Region (1.41%, in men (1.82%, and in urban areas (1.15%. The study showed a rise in the prevalence of self-reported hypertension in all income brackets and with increasing age. Knowledge of the prevalence of hypertension is essential for backing activities to prevent and control the problem, especially among the more vulnerable subgroups.O estudo avaliou a tendência temporal de hipertensão arterial autorreferida no período de 1998 a 2008, em indivíduos acima de 20 anos, no Brasil. Foram analisados os dados de prevalência de hipertensão da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD de 1998, 2003 e 2008. A análise considerou a complexidade amostral e incluiu 203.419, 238.591 e 257.816 indivíduos nos anos de 1998, 2003 e 2008, respectivamente. A tendência de hipertensão foi descrita por sexo, renda domiciliar, macrorregiões do Brasil e zona de residência, e as prevalências foram ajustadas por idade. A prevalência de hipertensão foi de 12,5% em 1998, 13% em 2003 e 13,9% em 2008, com incremento anual de 1,07%. Maior aumento anual ocorreu na Região Sudeste (1,41%, entre homens (1,82% e na zona urbana (1,15%. Observou-se crescimento nas prevalências de

  17. Advances in temporal logic

    CERN Document Server

    Fisher, Michael; Gabbay, Dov; Gough, Graham

    2000-01-01

    Time is a fascinating subject that has captured mankind's imagination from ancient times to the present. It has been, and continues to be studied across a wide range of disciplines, from the natural sciences to philosophy and logic. More than two decades ago, Pnueli in a seminal work showed the value of temporal logic in the specification and verification of computer programs. Today, a strong, vibrant international research community exists in the broad community of computer science and AI. This volume presents a number of articles from leading researchers containing state-of-the-art results in such areas as pure temporal/modal logic, specification and verification, temporal databases, temporal aspects in AI, tense and aspect in natural language, and temporal theorem proving. Earlier versions of some of the articles were given at the most recent International Conference on Temporal Logic, University of Manchester, UK. Readership: Any student of the area - postgraduate, postdoctoral or even research professor ...

  18. Indeterministic Temporal Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trzęsicki Kazimierz

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The questions od determinism, causality, and freedom have been the main philosophical problems debated since the beginning of temporal logic. The issue of the logical value of sentences about the future was stated by Aristotle in the famous tomorrow sea-battle passage. The question has inspired Łukasiewicz’s idea of many-valued logics and was a motive of A. N. Prior’s considerations about the logic of tenses. In the scheme of temporal logic there are different solutions to the problem. In the paper we consider indeterministic temporal logic based on the idea of temporal worlds and the relation of accessibility between them.

  19. Time trends (1992-2005 in undernutrition and obesity among children under five years of age in Alagoas State, Brazil Tendencia temporal (1992-2005 de la desnutrición y de la obesidad en menores de cinco años en el estado de Alagoas, Brasil Tendência temporal (1992-2005 da desnutrição e da obesidade em menores de cinco anos no Estado de Alagoas, Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Lopes de Assunção

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to describe time trends in stunting and obesity in children under five years of age in Alagoas State, Brazil. Two surveys were conducted with representative samples, the first in 1992 (n = 1,228 and the second in 2005 (n = 1,384. Stunting was defined as height-for-age 2 standard deviations. Prevalence of stunting decreased from 22.5% to 11.4% (PR = 0.50; 95%CI: 0.42; 0.60, while obesity increased from 6.7% to 9.3% (PR = 1.36; 95%CI: 1.04; 1.77. During the same period there was a decrease (p ≤ 0.05 in the proportions of the following variables: rural residence, households without running water, households with more than four members, mothers with more than two children, low birth weight, and mother's lack of access to prenatal care. Adjustment for these variables significantly reduced the magnitude of associations, and the 95% confidence included 1.0, suggesting that changes in the prevalence of stunting and obesity were mediated by these characteristics. During the period, there was a striking reduction in the prevalence of stunting and an increase in the frequency of obesity.Se tuvo por objetivo describir la tendencia temporal del déficit de estatura y de la obesidad en menores de 5 años de Alagoas, Brasil. Dos encuestas con muestras representativas fueron realizados en 1992 (n = 1.228 y 2005 (n = 1.384. El déficit de estatura fue definido por la altura/edad 2 desvíos-padrón. La prevalencia de déficit de estatura cambió de un 22,5% a un 11,4% RP = 0,50; IC95%: 0,42; 0,60, mientras que la de obesidad pasó de un 6,7% a un 9,3% (RP = 1,36; IC95%: 1,04; 1,77. En el mismo período hubo una reducción (p ≤ 0,05 en las proporciones de las siguientes variables: habitantes en la zona rural, familias sin acceso al agua corriente, domicilios con más de cuatro personas, madres con más de dos hijos, bajo peso al nacer y madres sin acceso al servicio prenatal. El ajuste para esas variables redujo significantemente la

  20. Chondroblastoma of temporal bone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanohta, K.; Noda, M.; Katoh, H.; Okazaki, A.; Sugiyama, S.; Maehara, T.; Onishi, S.; Tanida, T.

    1986-07-01

    The case of a 55-year-old female with chondroblastoma arising from the left temporal bone is presented. Although 10 cases of temporal chondroblastoma have been reported, this is the first in which plain radiography, pluridirectional tomography, computed tomography (CT) and angiography were performed. We discuss the clinical and radiological aspects of this rare tumor.

  1. Chondroblastoma of temporal bone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanohta, K.; Noda, M.; Katoh, H.; Okazaki, A.; Sugiyama, S.; Maehara, T.; Onishi, S.; Tanida, T.

    1986-01-01

    The case of a 55-year-old female with chondroblastoma arising from the left temporal bone is presented. Although 10 cases of temporal chondroblastoma have been reported, this is the first in which plain radiography, pluridirectional tomography, computed tomography (CT) and angiography were performed. We discuss the clinical and radiological aspects of this rare tumor. (orig.)

  2. Temporal variation of clear-water scour at compound Abutments

    OpenAIRE

    Aminuddin Ab. Ghani; Reza Mohammadpour

    2016-01-01

    Most of actual abutments in rivers are built on foundation, while there is limited number of study available on the effects of the foundation on the local scour. In this study, temporal variation of local scour around compound abutment was investigated experimentally under clear-water conditions. The results showed that a suitable level of foundation is able to decrease the scour depth and increase scour time during the flood events. The trend of temporal scour depth at compound pier and abut...

  3. The Hierarchical Trend Model for property valuation and local price indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Francke, M.K.; Vos, G.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical trend model (HTM) for selling prices of houses, addressing three main problems: the spatial and temporal dependence of selling prices and the dependency of price index changes on housing quality. In this model the general price trend, cluster-level price trends,

  4. Otosclerosis: Temporal Bone Pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesnel, Alicia M; Ishai, Reuven; McKenna, Michael J

    2018-04-01

    Otosclerosis is pathologically characterized by abnormal bony remodeling, which includes bone resorption, new bone deposition, and vascular proliferation in the temporal bone. Sensorineural hearing loss in otosclerosis is associated with extension of otosclerosis to the cochlear endosteum and deposition of collagen throughout the spiral ligament. Persistent or recurrent conductive hearing loss after stapedectomy has been associated with incomplete footplate fenestration, poor incus-prosthesis connection, and incus resorption in temporal bone specimens. Human temporal bone pathology has helped to define the role of computed tomography imaging for otosclerosis, confirming that computed tomography is highly sensitive for diagnosis, yet limited in assessing cochlear endosteal involvement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Trends in Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    School Planning & Management, 2002

    2002-01-01

    Several architects, planners, administrators, and contractors answer questions about trends related to school construction, interior design, business, security, and technology. Trends concern funding issues, specialized designs, planning for safety, technological integration, and equity in services. (EV)

  6. Marketing Trends to Watch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Circle, Alison

    2009-01-01

    This article identifies 13 cultural trends that libraries can turn into opportunites to reach patrons. These trends include: Twitter, online reputation management, value added content, mobile marketing, and emotional connection.

  7. Lung Cancer Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the Biggest Cancer Killer in Both Men and Women” Stay Informed Trends for Other Kinds of Cancer Breast Cervical Colorectal (Colon) Ovarian Prostate Skin Cancer Home Lung Cancer Trends Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend ...

  8. Nontraumatic temporal subcortical hemorrhage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisberg, L.A.; Stazio, A.; Shamsnia, M.; Elliott, D.; Charity Hospital, New Orleans, LA

    1990-01-01

    Thirty patients with temporal hematomas were analyzed. Four with frontal extension survived. Of 6 with ganglionic extension, three had residual deficit. Of 8 with parietal extension, 4 had delayed deterioration and died, two patients recovered, and two with peritumoral hemorrhage due to glioblastoma multiforme died. Five patients with posterior temporal hematomas recovered. In 7 patients with basal-inferior temporal hematomas, angiography showed aneurysms in 3 cases, angiomas in 2 cases and no vascular lesion in 2 cases. Of 23 cases with negative angiography and no systemic cause for temporal hematoma, 12 patients were hypertensive and 11 were normotensive. Ten hypertensive patients without evidence of chronic vascular disease had the largest hematomas, extending into the parietal or ganglionic regions. Seven of these patients died; 3 had residual deficit. Eleven normotensive and two hypertensive patients with evidence of chronic vascular change had smaller hematomas. They survived with good functional recovery. (orig.)

  9. Temporal Lobe Seizure

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... functions, including having odd feelings — such as euphoria, deja vu or fear. Temporal lobe seizures are sometimes called ... sudden sense of unprovoked fear or joy A deja vu experience — a feeling that what's happening has happened ...

  10. SHEEP TEMPORAL BONE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kesavan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION Human temporal bones are difficult to procure now a days due to various ethical issues. Sheep temporal bone is a good alternative due to morphological similarities, easy to procure and less cost. Many middle ear exercises can be done easily and handling of instruments is done in the procedures like myringoplasty, tympanoplasty, stapedotomy, facial nerve dissection and some middle ear implants. This is useful for resident training programme.

  11. An estimate of the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getachew, Yehenew; Gotu, Butte; Enquselassie, Fikre

    2010-10-01

    Since early 1980s when AIDS was first recognized, there has been uncertainty about the future trend and the ultimate dimensions of the pandemic. This uncertainty persists because of difficulties in measuring HIV incidence and prevalence with a substantial degree of precision in a given population. One of the many factors for the lack of precision is the problem of obtaining representative data sources that can be extrapolated to the general population. National and regional HIV estimates for Ethiopia are derived from ANC based HIV surveillance data. Alternative data sources have not been exhaustively explored as potential tools to monitor the trend of HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the country. To estimate the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance data. The study used secondary data sources from all government, private and NGO VCT centers, of the period of 2003-2005 in Addis Ababa. For the purpose of making comparative analysis of the VCT based estimations and projections, records of all five sentinel sites in Addis Ababa for the period 1983-2003 were reviewed. Both ANC and VCT data sources showed similar and regular trends from the beginning of the HIV epidemic till the year 1995 where the ANC showed a relatively higher prevalence rates than VCT data, with a maximum difference in HIV prevalence of 1.06% in 1993. However, a higher HIV prevalence was noted for the VCT than the ANC data source for the period of 1996-2002, with a maximum difference of 1.4% in 1998, the year when both the ANC and VCT modeled HIV prevalence reached the highest peak in Addis Ababa. On the contrary, the ANC based prevalence was higher than the VCT data for the period 2004-2010, with a maximum difference of 2.2%. This study suggests that VCT based HIV prevalence data closely approximates the ANC based data. Therefore VCT data source can be valuable to complement the ANC data in monitoring the HIV

  12. Temporal network epidemiology

    CERN Document Server

    Holme, Petter

    2017-01-01

    This book covers recent developments in epidemic process models and related data on temporally varying networks. It is widely recognized that contact networks are indispensable for describing, understanding, and intervening to stop the spread of infectious diseases in human and animal populations; “network epidemiology” is an umbrella term to describe this research field. More recently, contact networks have been recognized as being highly dynamic. This observation, also supported by an increasing amount of new data, has led to research on temporal networks, a rapidly growing area. Changes in network structure are often informed by epidemic (or other) dynamics, in which case they are referred to as adaptive networks. This volume gathers contributions by prominent authors working in temporal and adaptive network epidemiology, a field essential to understanding infectious diseases in real society.

  13. Temporal Concurrent Constraint Programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valencia, Frank Dan

    Concurrent constraint programming (ccp) is a formalism for concurrency in which agents interact with one another by telling (adding) and asking (reading) information in a shared medium. Temporal ccp extends ccp by allowing agents to be constrained by time conditions. This dissertation studies...... temporal ccp by developing a process calculus called ntcc. The ntcc calculus generalizes the tcc model, the latter being a temporal ccp model for deterministic and synchronouss timed reactive systems. The calculus is built upon few basic ideas but it captures several aspects of timed systems. As tcc, ntcc...... structures, robotic devises, multi-agent systems and music applications. The calculus is provided with a denotational semantics that captures the reactive computations of processes in the presence of arbitrary environments. The denotation is proven to be fully-abstract for a substantial fragment...

  14. The VALUE perfect predictor experiment: evaluation of temporal variability

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Maraun, D.; Huth, Radan; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Martín, D. S.; Dubrovský, Martin; Fischer, A.; Hertig, E.; Soares, S. M. M.; Bartholy, J.; Pongrácz, R.; Widmann, M.; Casado, M. J.; Ramos, P.; Bedia, J.

    (2017) ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12029 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : regional climate * downscaling * evaluation * validation * temporal variability * spells * interannual variability * long-term trends Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5222/abstract

  15. Advances in Temporal Analysis in Learning and Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Inge

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on a trend to analyse temporal characteristics of constructs important to learning and instruction. Different researchers have indicated that we should pay more attention to time in our research to enhance explanatory power and increase validity. Constructs formerly viewed as personal traits, such as self-regulated learning and…

  16. Empresas de trabajo temporal

    OpenAIRE

    Chico Abad, Virginia

    2015-01-01

    Las empresas de trabajo temporal han ido tomando mayor relevancia debido a la estructura de la sociedad y de la economía. La entrada en vigor de la ley 14/1994 por la que se regulan las empresas de trabajo temporal suposo la incorporación al ordenamiento jurífico español de un tipo de empresas cuya actuación se habia extendido en otros países del entorno europeo. La idea general gira en torno a la flexibilidad de un nuevo marco económico y organizativo y exige a las empresas una capa...

  17. Medial temporal lobe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silver, A.J.; Cross, D.T.; Friedman, D.P.; Bello, J.A.; Hilal, S.K.

    1989-01-01

    To better define the MR appearance of hippocampal sclerosis, the authors have reviewed over 500 MR coronal images of the temporal lobes. Many cysts were noted that analysis showed were of choroid-fissure (arachnoid) origin. Their association with seizures was low. A few nontumorous, static, medial temporal lesions, noted on T2-weighted coronal images, were poorly visualized on T1-weighted images and did not enhance with gadolinium. The margins were irregular, involved the hippocampus, and were often associated with focal atrophy. The lesions usually were associated with seizure disorders and specific electroencephalographic changes, and the authors believe they represented hippocampal sclerosis

  18. On the Nature of Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

    2010-01-01

    A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory.......A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory....

  19. Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    2012-11-15

    In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

  20. Present status and future trends of semiconductor detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakatos, Tamas

    1988-01-01

    Some examples of the applications of semiconductor radiation detectors are briefly outlined, in order to illustrate development trends. The major parameters including energy resolution and dead time are discussed, and their improvement by the application of temporally varying parameter filters is pointed out. Development trends point toward low-loss signal processing by using adaptive filtering, possibly digital filtering. (R.P.) 14 refs.; 3 figs

  1. Computer architecture technology trends

    CERN Document Server

    1991-01-01

    Please note this is a Short Discount publication. This year's edition of Computer Architecture Technology Trends analyses the trends which are taking place in the architecture of computing systems today. Due to the sheer number of different applications to which computers are being applied, there seems no end to the different adoptions which proliferate. There are, however, some underlying trends which appear. Decision makers should be aware of these trends when specifying architectures, particularly for future applications. This report is fully revised and updated and provides insight in

  2. Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

    2018-05-15

    Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

  3. Optimizing Temporal Queries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toman, David; Bowman, Ivan Thomas

    2003-01-01

    Recent research in the area of temporal databases has proposed a number of query languages that vary in their expressive power and the semantics they provide to users. These query languages represent a spectrum of solutions to the tension between clean semantics and efficient evaluation. Often, t...

  4. Temporal Concurrent Constraint Programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mogens; Palamidessi, Catuscia; Valencia, Frank Dan

    2002-01-01

    The ntcc calculus is a model of non-deterministic temporal concurrent constraint programming. In this paper we study behavioral notions for this calculus. In the underlying computational model, concurrent constraint processes are executed in discrete time intervals. The behavioral notions studied...

  5. Temporal Photon Differentials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjøth, Lars; Frisvad, Jeppe Revall; Erleben, Kenny

    2010-01-01

    The finite frame rate also used in computer animated films is cause of adverse temporal aliasing effects. Most noticeable of these is a stroboscopic effect that is seen as intermittent movement of fast moving illumination. This effect can be mitigated using non-zero shutter times, effectively...

  6. Temporal compressive sensing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Bryan W.

    2017-12-12

    Methods and systems for temporal compressive sensing are disclosed, where within each of one or more sensor array data acquisition periods, one or more sensor array measurement datasets comprising distinct linear combinations of time slice data are acquired, and where mathematical reconstruction allows for calculation of accurate representations of the individual time slice datasets.

  7. Information and Temporality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Flender

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Being able to give reasons for what the world is and how it works is one of the defining characteristics of modernity. Mathematical reason and empirical observation brought science and engineering to unprecedented success. However, modernity has reached a post-state where an instrumental view of technology needs revision with reasonable arguments and evidence, i.e. without falling back to superstition and mysticism. Instrumentally, technology bears the potential to ease and to harm. Easing and harming can't be controlled like the initial development of technology is a controlled exercise for a specific, mostly easing purpose. Therefore, a revised understanding of information technology is proposed based upon mathematical concepts and intuitions as developed in quantum mechanics. Quantum mechanics offers unequaled opportunities because it raises foundational questions in a precise form. Beyond instrumentalism it enables to raise the question of essences as that what remains through time what it is. The essence of information technology is acausality. The time of acausality is temporality. Temporality is not a concept or a category. It is not epistemological. As an existential and thus more comprehensive and fundamental than a concept or a category temporality is ontological; it does not simply have ontic properties. Rather it exhibits general essences. Datability, significance, spannedness and openness are general essences of equiprimordial time (temporality.

  8. Temporal logic motion planning

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Seotsanyana, M

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a critical review on temporal logic motion planning is presented. The review paper aims to address the following problems: (a) In a realistic situation, the motion planning problem is carried out in real-time, in a dynamic, uncertain...

  9. Experimental temporal quantum steering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bartkiewicz, K.; Černoch, Antonín; Lemr, K.; Miranowicz, A.; Nori, F.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 6, Nov (2016), 1-8, č. článku 38076. ISSN 2045-2322 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP205/12/0382 Institutional support: RVO:68378271 Keywords : temporal quantum steering * EPR steering Subject RIV: BH - Optics, Masers, Lasers Impact factor: 4.259, year: 2016

  10. Communication, Technology, Temporality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A. Martinez

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a media studies that foregrounds technological objects as communicative and historical agents. Specifically, I take the digital computer as a powerful catalyst of crises in communication theories and certain key features of modernity. Finally, the computer is the motor of “New Media” which is at once a set of technologies, a historical epoch, and a field of knowledge. As such the computer shapes “the new” and “the future” as History pushes its origins further in the past and its convergent quality pushes its future as a predominate medium. As treatment of information and interface suggest, communication theories observe computers, and technologies generally, for the mediated languages they either afford or foreclose to us. My project describes the figures information and interface for the different ways they can be thought of as aspects of communication. I treat information not as semantic meaning, formal or discursive language, but rather as a physical organism. Similarly an interface is not a relationship between a screen and a human visual intelligence, but is instead a reciprocal, affective and physical process of contact. I illustrate that historically there have been conceptions of information and interface complimentary to mine, fleeting as they have been in the face of a dominant temporality of mediation. I begin with a theoretically informed approach to media history, and extend it to a new theory of communication. In doing so I discuss a model of time common to popular, scientific, and critical conceptions of media technologies especially in theories of computer technology. This is a predominate model with particular rules of temporal change and causality for thinking about mediation, and limits the conditions of possibility for knowledge production about communication. I suggest a new model of time as integral to any event of observation and analysis, and that human mediation does not exhaust the

  11. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-11

    including breaking news, meme , and commemorative day, on the context patterns. Table 2 shows the example pattern of classifying context pattern feature...used the following rule to find the ‘ meme ’. If the trending topic contains ‘#’ AND ‘subject+verb’, then trending topic is ‘ Meme ’. Table 2 Context

  12. Recent trends in epidemiology, sensitization and legal requirements of selected relevant contact allergens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Bregnbak, David; Johansen, Jeanne Duus

    2016-01-01

    the last 5 years, a comprehensive review of methylisothiazolinone, chromium, cobalt, rubber accelerators and fragrance ingredients were conducted. Of each allergen we discuss in detail the temporal trend of prevalence, source of exposure, clinical manifestation of allergic contact dermatitis...

  13. World trends from 2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

  14. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  15. Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

    2002-12-01

    Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

  16. ADHD and temporality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mikka

    According to the official diagnostic manual, ADHD is defined by symptoms of inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity and patterns of behaviour are characterized as failure to pay attention to details, excessive talking, fidgeting, or inability to remain seated in appropriate situations (DSM-5......). In this paper, however, I will ask if we can understand what we call ADHD in a different way than through the symptom descriptions and will advocate for a complementary, phenomenological understanding of ADHD as a certain being in the world – more specifically as a matter of a phenomenological difference...... in temporal experience and/or rhythm. Inspired by both psychiatry’s experiments with people diagnosed with ADHD and their assessment of time and phenomenological perspectives on mental disorders and temporal disorientation I explore the experience of ADHD as a disruption in the phenomenological experience...

  17. Temporal Concurrent Constraint Programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mogens; Valencia Posso, Frank Dan

    2002-01-01

    The ntcc calculus is a model of non-deterministic temporal concurrent constraint programming. In this paper we study behavioral notions for this calculus. In the underlying computational model, concurrent constraint processes are executed in discrete time intervals. The behavioral notions studied...... reflect the reactive interactions between concurrent constraint processes and their environment, as well as internal interactions between individual processes. Relationships between the suggested notions are studied, and they are all proved to be decidable for a substantial fragment of the calculus...

  18. Pablo Verani y la UCR rionegrina. Consolidación de prácticas de patronazgo político y de relaciones clientelares, 1983-2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iuorno, Graciela

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available El radicalismo fue el partido de gobierno en la Provincia de Río Negro, desde 1983 a 2011, año en el que el Frente para Victoria obtuvo un rotundo triunfo en alianza con el Frente Grande. El objetivo de esta investigación es estudiar las prácticas políticas desplegadas por dirigentes y militantes radicales que acompañaron el proceso de construcción de hegemonía y de consolidación de prácticas de patronazgo que condujeron al dirigente roquense Pablo Verani desde la intendencia de Roca a partir de la re-institucionalización en el país, a las dos gestiones de gobierno -1995-2003- y el modo de representación política, contribuyendo a configurar el sistema de partido predominante en Río Negro. En el caso de este articulo nos ocupamos de analizar la construcción de liderazgo de y de las relaciones clientelares desarrolladas desde la Intendencia durante dos periodos (1983-1991; más adelante desde la vice- gobernación y finalmente en la gobernación por dos periodos consecutivos.

  19. Long-Term Low Tide Monitoring Data for Fishes, Shrimps, & Crabs in Oyster Landing Creek, North Inlet Estuary, Georgetown, South Carolina: 1983-2003.

    Data.gov (United States)

    Baruch Institute for Marine and Coastal Sciences, Univ of South Carolina — Seine samples of the nekton community were taken every 2 weeks with a 6-millimeter mesh bag seine at low tide, in an intertidal creek pool in the Oyster Landing...

  20. Healthy food trends -- flaxseeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... seeds; Healthy food trends - linseeds; Healthy snacks - flaxseeds; Healthy diet - flaxseeds; Wellness - flaxseeds ... of nutrition and dietetics: dietary fatty acids for healthy adults. J Acad Nutr Diet . 2014;114(1):136-153. PMID: 24342605 www. ...

  1. Health Plans - Trend Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This page contains several useful trend and competition indicators. Certain files will be updated monthly while others will be updated quarterly. The files are the...

  2. Healthy food trends - kale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healthy food trends - borecole; Healthy snacks - kale; Weight loss - kale; Healthy diet - kale; Wellness - kale ... Kale is full of vitamins and minerals, including: Vitamin A Vitamin C Vitamin K If you take ...

  3. Dismantling technologies trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devaux, P.

    2009-01-01

    In this work dismantling technologies trends realized by the CEA are reviewed. There following technologies are presented: Data acquisition from facilities; Scenario studies; Remote handling and carriers; Dismantling techniques; Decontamination.

  4. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  5. World trends from 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing...

  6. Trends in communications satellites

    CERN Document Server

    Curtin, Denis J

    1979-01-01

    Trends in Communications Satellites offers a comprehensive look at trends and advances in satellite communications, including experimental ones such as NASA satellites and those jointly developed by France and Germany. The economic aspects of communications satellites are also examined. This book consists of 16 chapters and begins with a discussion on the fundamentals of electrical communications and their application to space communications, including spacecraft, earth stations, and orbit and wavelength utilization. The next section demonstrates how successful commercial satellite communicati

  7. Trends in Business Investment

    OpenAIRE

    Lydon, Reamonn; Scally, John

    2014-01-01

    This article examines trends in business investment in Ireland. Consistent with the international evidence on investment cycles, we show that business investment in Ireland exhibits large cyclical movements around a long-run trend relative to GDP. Changes in business investment broadly coincide with the overall business cycle, although swings in investment tend to be far greater, with extended periods of both over- and under-investment relative to GDP. The sharp fall in business investment si...

  8. Trends in picture communication

    OpenAIRE

    Speidel, Joachim

    1993-01-01

    In the past years significant progress was made with digital transmission of audiovisual services and most interesting trends are visible for the future. Such applications encompass interactive services, like videoconferencing, ISDN-videophone, storage of moving video and audio in computers or on CD, e.g. for multimedia applications. For distribution services, there is an unbroken trend from TV to HDTV. Strong emphasis is on compressed digital video even for transmission to the home.

  9. Spatio-Temporal Rule Mining

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gidofalvi, Gyozo; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2005-01-01

    Recent advances in communication and information technology, such as the increasing accuracy of GPS technology and the miniaturization of wireless communication devices pave the road for Location-Based Services (LBS). To achieve high quality for such services, spatio-temporal data mining techniques...... are needed. In this paper, we describe experiences with spatio-temporal rule mining in a Danish data mining company. First, a number of real world spatio-temporal data sets are described, leading to a taxonomy of spatio-temporal data. Second, the paper describes a general methodology that transforms...... the spatio-temporal rule mining task to the traditional market basket analysis task and applies it to the described data sets, enabling traditional association rule mining methods to discover spatio-temporal rules for LBS. Finally, unique issues in spatio-temporal rule mining are identified and discussed....

  10. Changes in pollution load and environmental trends in the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawlak, Janet

    1998-12-01

    This publication relates to the quality of the marine environment in the North Sea. Changes in pollution load and environmental trends are analysed. Main themes discussed cover chemical contaminants, temporal trends contaminants in biota, inputs of contaminants to the marine environment, and biological effects of contaminants and biological monitoring. 14 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  11. Assessment of vegetation trends in drylands from time series of earth observation data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fensholt, R.; Horion, S.; Tagesson, T.; Ehammer, A.; Grogan, K.; Tian, F.; Huber, S.; Verbesselt, J.; Prince, S.D.; Tucker, C.J.; Rasmussen, K.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter summarizes approaches to the detection of dryland vegetation change and methods for observing spatio-temporal trends from space. An overview of suitable long-term Earth Observation (EO) based datasets for assessment of global dryland vegetation trends is provided and a status map of

  12. Spatial and Temporal Patterns In Ecohydrological Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, S. K.; Barnard, H. R.; Singha, K.; Harmon, R. E.; Szutu, D.

    2017-12-01

    The model of ecohydrological separation suggests that trees source water from a different subsurface pool than what is contributing to stream flow during dry periods, however diel fluctuations in stream flow and transpiration are tightly coupled. To better understand the mechanism of this coupling, this study examines spatiotemporal patterns in water isotopic relationships between tree, soil, and stream water. Preliminary analysis of data collected in 2015 show a trend in δ18O enrichment in xylem water, suggesting an increased reliance on enriched soil water not flowing to the stream as the growing season progresses, while xylem samples from 2016, a particularly wet year, do not have this trend. Variations in these temporal trends are explored with regard to distance from stream, aspect of hillslope, position in the watershed, size of the tree, and soil depth. Additionally, a near-stream site is examined at high resolution using water isotope data, sap flow, and electrical resistivity surveying to examine soil moisture and water use patterns across the riparian-hillslope transition.

  13. Egocentric Temporal Action Proposals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao Huang; Weiqiang Wang; Shengfeng He; Lau, Rynson W H

    2018-02-01

    We present an approach to localize generic actions in egocentric videos, called temporal action proposals (TAPs), for accelerating the action recognition step. An egocentric TAP refers to a sequence of frames that may contain a generic action performed by the wearer of a head-mounted camera, e.g., taking a knife, spreading jam, pouring milk, or cutting carrots. Inspired by object proposals, this paper aims at generating a small number of TAPs, thereby replacing the popular sliding window strategy, for localizing all action events in the input video. To this end, we first propose to temporally segment the input video into action atoms, which are the smallest units that may contain an action. We then apply a hierarchical clustering algorithm with several egocentric cues to generate TAPs. Finally, we propose two actionness networks to score the likelihood of each TAP containing an action. The top ranked candidates are returned as output TAPs. Experimental results show that the proposed TAP detection framework performs significantly better than relevant approaches for egocentric action detection.

  14. Spontaneous lateral temporal encephalocele.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuncbilek, Gokhan; Calis, Mert; Akalan, Nejat

    2013-01-01

    A spontaneous encephalocele is one that develops either because of embryological maldevelopment or from a poorly understood postnatal process that permits brain herniation to occur. We here report a rare case of lateral temporal encephalocele extending to the infratemporal fossa under the zygomatic arch. At birth, the infant was noted to have a large cystic mass in the right side of the face. After being operated on initially in another center in the newborn period, the patient was referred to our clinic with a diagnosis of temporal encephalocele. He was 6 months old at the time of admission. Computerized tomography scan and magnetic resonance imaging studies revealed a 8 × 9 cm fluid-filled, multiloculated cystic mass at the right infratemporal fossa. No intracranial pathology or connection is seen. The patient was operated on to reduce the distortion effect of the growing mass. The histopathological examination of the sac revealed well-differentiated mature glial tissue stained with glial fibrillary acid protein. This rare clinical presentation of encephaloceles should be taken into consideration during the evaluation of the lateral facial masses in the infancy period, and possible intracranial connection should be ruled out before surgery to avoid complications.

  15. NEW TRENDS IN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micu Alexandra

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, management have been facing a series of profound changes in trends coming and going, one being more productive than other or causing more damage when applied improperly. The paper focuses on the last trends in management that have evolved in the last years, trends that have been marked by a Darwinian business environment and made more unforgiving since the financial crisis and the innovations in technology, social media and management philosophy. The paper will present and describe the most important new trends in management that enabled select organisations to remain competitive and overcome the multiple difficulties caused by the ever-changing economy based on a qualitative research. From the “outside innovation” that is considered always to be the key in overcoming the obstacles facing an organization, to the new buzzword “design”, that is said to ensure the organization long-term competitive advantage, the paper will analyse new trends and also will be describing the impact they have on the welfare of the organization. The research has also shown that managers tend to put a greater accent on searching for innovation rather than efficiency in order to ensure a continuous progress in the organization and to maintain business sustainability. The paper will not be comparing the efficiency of these different philosophies, or the results they generated, as time will still be the ultimate judge.

  16. Recent developments and trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reijnders, L.; Bakkes, J.; van Egmond, K.; Boersema, J.J.; Reijnders, L.

    2009-01-01

    Although we often speak of ‘the’ environmental problem, what we in fact have is a large family of problems affecting the geophysical system, ecosystems and human health and varying enormously in magnitude, nature and temporal and spatial scale. There is a similar diversity in how these problems are

  17. Wage Sorting Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bagger, Jesper; Vejlin, Rune Majlund; Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke

    Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001. The non......Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001....... The nonstationary wage sorting pattern is not due to compositional changes in the labor market, primarily occurs among high wage workers, and comprises 41 percent of the increase in the standard deviation of log real wages between 1980 and 2006. We show that the wage sorting trend is associated with worker...

  18. Model Based Temporal Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Marla J.; Spinrad, Paul R.; Fall, Thomas C.

    1988-03-01

    Systems that assess the real world must cope with evidence that is uncertain, ambiguous, and spread over time. Typically, the most important function of an assessment system is to identify when activities are occurring that are unusual or unanticipated. Model based temporal reasoning addresses both of these requirements. The differences among temporal reasoning schemes lies in the methods used to avoid computational intractability. If we had n pieces of data and we wanted to examine how they were related, the worst case would be where we had to examine every subset of these points to see if that subset satisfied the relations. This would be 2n, which is intractable. Models compress this; if several data points are all compatible with a model, then that model represents all those data points. Data points are then considered related if they lie within the same model or if they lie in models that are related. Models thus address the intractability problem. They also address the problem of determining unusual activities if the data do not agree with models that are indicated by earlier data then something out of the norm is taking place. The models can summarize what we know up to that time, so when they are not predicting correctly, either something unusual is happening or we need to revise our models. The model based reasoner developed at Advanced Decision Systems is thus both intuitive and powerful. It is currently being used on one operational system and several prototype systems. It has enough power to be used in domains spanning the spectrum from manufacturing engineering and project management to low-intensity conflict and strategic assessment.

  19. Multiple Temporalities, Layered Histories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Pearson

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Quotational Practices: Repeating the Future in Contemporary Art, Patrick Greaney asserts, “the past matters not only because of what actually happened but also because of the possibilities that were not realized and that still could be. Quotation evokes those possibilities. By repeating the past, artists and writers may be attempting to repeat that past’s unrealized futures.”[1]  In the information age, the Internet, for instance, provides us an expanded collection of visual information—quite literally available at our fingertips—summoning together aspects of the past and possibilities of the future into a boundless present. Sketchbook Revisions (2014–2015, a series of mixed-media paintings, represents my attempt to communicate the ways in which I experience my contemporary moment constructed from multiple temporalities excavated from my past. This body of work combines fragments of representational paintings created between 1995 and 2003 and nonrepresentational renderings produced between 2003 and 2014. Using traditional tracing paper and graphic color, I randomly select moments of my previous work to transfer and layer over selected areas of already-filled pages of a sketchbook I used from 2003 to 2004. These sketches depict objects I encountered in studio art classrooms and iconic architecture on the campus of McDaniel College, and often incorporate teaching notes. The final renditions of fragmented and layered histories enact the ways that we collectively experience multiple temporalities in the present. Quoting my various bodies of work, Sketchbook Revisions challenges both material and conceptual boundaries that determine fixed notions of artistic identity.

  20. Join Operations in Temporal Databases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, D.; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard; Snodgrass, R.T.

    2005-01-01

    Joins are arguably the most important relational operators. Poor implementations are tantamount to computing the Cartesian product of the input relations. In a temporal database, the problem is more acute for two reasons. First, conventional techniques are designed for the evaluation of joins...... with equality predicates rather than the inequality predicates prevalent in valid-time queries. Second, the presence of temporally varying data dramatically increases the size of a database. These factors indicate that specialized techniques are needed to efficiently evaluate temporal joins. We address...... this need for efficient join evaluation in temporal databases. Our purpose is twofold. We first survey all previously proposed temporal join operators. While many temporal join operators have been defined in previous work, this work has been done largely in isolation from competing proposals, with little...

  1. Knowledge acquisition for temporal abstraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, A; Musen, M A; Shahar, Y

    1996-01-01

    Temporal abstraction is the task of detecting relevant patterns in data over time. The knowledge-based temporal-abstraction method uses knowledge about a clinical domain's contexts, external events, and parameters to create meaningful interval-based abstractions from raw time-stamped clinical data. In this paper, we describe the acquisition and maintenance of domain-specific temporal-abstraction knowledge. Using the PROTEGE-II framework, we have designed a graphical tool for acquiring temporal knowledge directly from expert physicians, maintaining the knowledge in a sharable form, and converting the knowledge into a suitable format for use by an appropriate problem-solving method. In initial tests, the tool offered significant gains in our ability to rapidly acquire temporal knowledge and to use that knowledge to perform automated temporal reasoning.

  2. [Temporal meaning of suffering].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porée, J

    2015-09-01

    If we had to find a few simple words to express what a suffering human being experiences, no matter what ills are causing the suffering and no matter what circumstances underlie the ills themselves, we could unmistakably say that it is the experience of not being able to go on like this. Suffering can be described, in this same sense, as an alteration in temporality. However, describing suffering as such only makes sense if we already have a conception of normal temporality. Yet for this, philosophical tradition offers not one but four competing conceptions. In the present article, we begin by briefly presenting these different conceptions. We then show how each one sheds light, by way of contrast, on a phenomenon whose meaning thus appears to be essentially negative. But does this phenomenon have a negative meaning only? Doesn't it correspond as much to a transformation as an alteration of temporality? This is what we will strive to establish in the third part of the article by relating suffering to hope, in a paradoxical sense of the term. Of the four conceptions of time likely to shed a contrasting light on the upheavals that suffering introduces into our life experience, the one described by Aristotle in Physics is historically the first. In particular, the notion of succession originates therein. But this conception does not account for what makes time the unit of a past, a present, and a future. In Book XI of Confessions, St. Augustine situated this unit not in nature but in the human mind. Hence, his definition of time as a distension of the soul and the necessary division into physical time and psychic time it entails. Husserl's Lessons on the phenomenology of the consciousness of internal time lend credit to this division, but they illuminate only the internal constitution of the "present", which is at the heart of the psychological conception of time. In Being and Time, Heidegger breaks away from this long-standing tradition; in his view, physical time

  3. Temporal Representation in Semantic Graphs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levandoski, J J; Abdulla, G M

    2007-08-07

    A wide range of knowledge discovery and analysis applications, ranging from business to biological, make use of semantic graphs when modeling relationships and concepts. Most of the semantic graphs used in these applications are assumed to be static pieces of information, meaning temporal evolution of concepts and relationships are not taken into account. Guided by the need for more advanced semantic graph queries involving temporal concepts, this paper surveys the existing work involving temporal representations in semantic graphs.

  4. Spatio-temporal reasoning and decision support tools

    OpenAIRE

    Renso, Chiara; Wachowicz, Monica

    2014-01-01

    Currently, mobility data is revolutionizing the traditional fields of spatio-temporal reasoning and decision making analysis, not only to scale-up to the large and growing data volumes, but also to address complex questions related to change, trends, duration, and evolution. In mobility data, space and time are inextricably linked, since humans, robots and systems that dynamically act, and interact within social networks, are embedded in space, and any change is often the result of actions an...

  5. Travel and tourism trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah J. Chavez

    1995-01-01

    Demographic trends which impact leisure time activities are highlighted, with particular emphasis given to the impacts of the growth of minority populations. Data was collected from recreationists to National Forests and from residents of an urban community. The data indicate a shift in outdoor recreation activities.

  6. Trends in ICT 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kessel, Paul van; Rust, Christa

    2003-01-01

    The study "Trends in ICT 2003" surveyed Dutch managers about important IT aspects. Results of the study are presented in brief. Topics treated are security, privacy, e-commerce, use of intranet, monitoring of employee WWW use, who makes IT decisions, implementation of contingency plans, the cause of

  7. Evolutionary trends in Heteroptera

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cobben, R.H.

    1968-01-01

    1. This work, the first volume of a series dealing with evolutionary trends in Heteroptera, is concerned with the egg system of about 400 species. The data are presented systematically in chapters 1 and 2 with a critical review of the literature after each family.

    2. Chapter 3 evaluates facts

  8. Trend Analysis Using Microcomputers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Carl F.

    A trend analysis statistical package and additional programs for the Apple microcomputer are presented. They illustrate strategies of data analysis suitable to the graphics and processing capabilities of the microcomputer. The programs analyze data sets using examples of: (1) analysis of variance with multiple linear regression; (2) exponential…

  9. Summary of Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Summary of Trends. Optical Ethernet: Direct Ethernet connectivity to businesses through optical fiber. Automation of network infrastructure: Cross-connects for interconnections; Intelligence through software for OA&M. New “data-centric” protection mechanisms ...

  10. Trends in corporate greening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning; Ulhøi, John Parm

    , if a general change of attitude has taken place in the business community or if companies just comply with the required minimum standard set by legislation. Based on a series of surveys this paper reports on the trends in implementing corporate environmental management in Danish industry up till the entrance...... of the new millennium in order to indicate how practice has evolved....

  11. [Development trend of nanomedicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kumiko

    2013-01-01

    Nanotechnology has had a great impact on science, technology, and society since 2000, and its applications in medicine are also progressing in the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of disease. In this review, international trends in nanomedicine regulation are introduced, including the definition of nanomedicines and the evaluation of liposomes and iron nanoparticles.

  12. Marketing for Camp Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddle, Alicia

    1998-01-01

    To effectively market a camp, current trends and issues must be considered: specialty programming, the Americans With Disabilities Act, competing recreational programs, changes in the school year, programming for seniors, and accountability. Camps should have a marketing strategy that includes public relations, a marketing plan, a pricing…

  13. Trends in African philosophy

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    JONATHAN

    In the contention of Oladipo (2006), the debate on the idea of. African philosophy which has been divided into trends or schools, dates back to the 1960's and 70's, which constitute the modern epoch of African philosophy, when some African thinkers began to question the perspective that traditional African beliefs and.

  14. Technological trends in automobiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, E J; Compton, W D

    1984-08-10

    Current technological trends in the automotive industry reflect many diverse disciplines. Electronics and microprocessors, new engine transmission concepts, composite and ceramic materials, and computer-aided design and manufacture will combine to make possible the creation of advanced automobiles offering outstanding quality, fuel economy, and performance. A projected "average" vehicle of the 1990's is described to illustrate the application of these new concepts.

  15. Iowa Population Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

    The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

  16. Cotton trends in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Cotton trends in India. A crop of significant economic importance, valued at over Rs. 15000 Crs. Provides income to 60 million people. Crucial raw material for Rs 83000 Crores textile industry out of which Rs 45754 crores is exports. Approx. 20 Million acres of cotton provides ...

  17. Optical Computing - Research Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 8; Issue 7. Optical Computing - Research Trends. Debabrata Goswami. General Article Volume 8 Issue 7 July 2003 pp 8-21. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/008/07/0008-0021. Keywords.

  18. Auditory temporal processing in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavasani, Azam Navaei; Mohammadkhani, Ghassem; Motamedi, Mahmoud; Karimi, Leyla Jalilvand; Jalaei, Shohreh; Shojaei, Fereshteh Sadat; Danesh, Ali; Azimi, Hadi

    2016-07-01

    Auditory temporal processing is the main feature of speech processing ability. Patients with temporal lobe epilepsy, despite their normal hearing sensitivity, may present speech recognition disorders. The present study was carried out to evaluate the auditory temporal processing in patients with unilateral TLE. The present study was carried out on 25 patients with epilepsy: 11 patients with right temporal lobe epilepsy and 14 with left temporal lobe epilepsy with a mean age of 31.1years and 18 control participants with a mean age of 29.4years. The two experimental and control groups were evaluated via gap-in-noise and duration pattern sequence tests. One-way ANOVA was run to analyze the data. The mean of the threshold of the GIN test in the control group was observed to be better than that in participants with LTLE and RTLE. Also, it was observed that the percentage of correct responses on the DPS test in the control group and in participants with RTLE was better than that in participants with LTLE. Patients with TLE have difficulties in temporal processing. Difficulties are more significant in patients with LTLE, likely because the left temporal lobe is specialized for the processing of temporal information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Measurement of Temporal Awareness in Air Traffic Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rantanen, E.M.

    2009-01-01

    Temporal awareness, or level 3 situation awareness, is critical to successful control of air traffic, yet the construct remains ill-defined and difficult to measure. This research sought evidence for air traffic controllers awareness of temporal characteristics of their tasks in data from a high-fidelity system evaluation simulation. Five teams of controllers worked on four scenarios with different traffic load. Several temporal parameters were defined for each task controllers performed during a simulation run and their actions on the tasks were timed relative to them. Controllers showed a strong tendency to prioritize tasks according to a first come, first served principle. This trend persisted as task load increased. Also evident was awareness of the urgency of tasks, as tasks with impending closing of a window of opportunity were performed before tasks that had longer time available before closing of the window.

  20. Model Checking Discounted Temporal Properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Alfaro, Luca; Faella, Marco; Henzinger, Thomas A.; Majumdar, Rupak; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2005-01-01

    Temporal logic is two-valued: a property is either true or false. When applied to the analysis of stochastic systems, or systems with imprecise formal models, temporal logic is therefore fragile: even small changes in the model can lead to opposite truth values for a specification. We present a

  1. Model Checking Discounted Temporal Properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Alfaro, Luca; Faella, Marco; Henzinger, Thomas A.; Majumdar, Rupak; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Jensen, K; Podelski, A.

    2004-01-01

    Temporal logic is two-valued: a property is either true or false. When applied to the analysis of stochastic systems, or systems with imprecise formal models, temporal logic is therefore fragile: even small changes in the model can lead to opposite truth values for a specification. We present a

  2. Temporal Cyber Attack Detection.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ingram, Joey Burton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Draelos, Timothy J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Galiardi, Meghan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Doak, Justin E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Rigorous characterization of the performance and generalization ability of cyber defense systems is extremely difficult, making it hard to gauge uncertainty, and thus, confidence. This difficulty largely stems from a lack of labeled attack data that fully explores the potential adversarial space. Currently, performance of cyber defense systems is typically evaluated in a qualitative manner by manually inspecting the results of the system on live data and adjusting as needed. Additionally, machine learning has shown promise in deriving models that automatically learn indicators of compromise that are more robust than analyst-derived detectors. However, to generate these models, most algorithms require large amounts of labeled data (i.e., examples of attacks). Algorithms that do not require annotated data to derive models are similarly at a disadvantage, because labeled data is still necessary when evaluating performance. In this work, we explore the use of temporal generative models to learn cyber attack graph representations and automatically generate data for experimentation and evaluation. Training and evaluating cyber systems and machine learning models requires significant, annotated data, which is typically collected and labeled by hand for one-off experiments. Automatically generating such data helps derive/evaluate detection models and ensures reproducibility of results. Experimentally, we demonstrate the efficacy of generative sequence analysis techniques on learning the structure of attack graphs, based on a realistic example. These derived models can then be used to generate more data. Additionally, we provide a roadmap for future research efforts in this area.

  3. Exploring historical trends using taxonomic name metadata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schenk Ryan

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Authority and year information have been attached to taxonomic names since Linnaean times. The systematic structure of taxonomic nomenclature facilitates the ability to develop tools that can be used to explore historical trends that may be associated with taxonomy. Results From the over 10.7 million taxonomic names that are part of the uBio system 4, approximately 3 million names were identified to have taxonomic authority information from the years 1750 to 2004. A pipe-delimited file was then generated, organized according to a Linnaean hierarchy and by years from 1750 to 2004, and imported into an Excel workbook. A series of macros were developed to create an Excel-based tool and a complementary Web site to explore the taxonomic data. A cursory and speculative analysis of the data reveals observable trends that may be attributable to significant events that are of both taxonomic (e.g., publishing of key monographs and societal importance (e.g., world wars. The findings also help quantify the number of taxonomic descriptions that may be made available through digitization initiatives. Conclusion Temporal organization of taxonomic data can be used to identify interesting biological epochs relative to historically significant events and ongoing efforts. We have developed an Excel workbook and complementary Web site that enables one to explore taxonomic trends for Linnaean taxonomic groupings, from Kingdoms to Families.

  4. Spatial and temporal distribution of geophysical disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cvetković Vladimir

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural disasters of all kinds (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatological and biological are increasingly becoming part of everyday life of modern human. The consequences are often devastating, to the life, health and property of people, as well to the security of states and the entire international regions. In this regard, we noted the need for a comprehensive investigation of the phenomenology of natural disasters. In addition, it is particularly important to pay attention to the different factors that might correlate with each other to indicate more dubious and more original facts about their characteristics. However, as the issue of natural disasters is very wide, the subject of this paper will be forms, consequences, temporal and spatial distribution of geophysical natural disasters, while analysis of other disasters will be the subject of our future research. Using an international database on natural disasters of the centre for research on the epidemiology of disasters (CRED based in Brussels, with the support of the statistical analysis (SPSS, we tried to point out the number, trends, consequences, the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and dry mass movements in the world, from 1900 to 2013.

  5. Temporal Ventriloquism Reveals Intact Audiovisual Temporal Integration in Amblyopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Michael D; Goltz, Herbert C; Wong, Agnes M F

    2018-02-01

    We have shown previously that amblyopia involves impaired detection of asynchrony between auditory and visual events. To distinguish whether this impairment represents a defect in temporal integration or nonintegrative multisensory processing (e.g., cross-modal matching), we used the temporal ventriloquism effect in which visual temporal order judgment (TOJ) is normally enhanced by a lagging auditory click. Participants with amblyopia (n = 9) and normally sighted controls (n = 9) performed a visual TOJ task. Pairs of clicks accompanied the two lights such that the first click preceded the first light, or second click lagged the second light by 100, 200, or 450 ms. Baseline audiovisual synchrony and visual-only conditions also were tested. Within both groups, just noticeable differences for the visual TOJ task were significantly reduced compared with baseline in the 100- and 200-ms click lag conditions. Within the amblyopia group, poorer stereo acuity and poorer visual acuity in the amblyopic eye were significantly associated with greater enhancement in visual TOJ performance in the 200-ms click lag condition. Audiovisual temporal integration is intact in amblyopia, as indicated by perceptual enhancement in the temporal ventriloquism effect. Furthermore, poorer stereo acuity and poorer visual acuity in the amblyopic eye are associated with a widened temporal binding window for the effect. These findings suggest that previously reported abnormalities in audiovisual multisensory processing may result from impaired cross-modal matching rather than a diminished capacity for temporal audiovisual integration.

  6. Safety system function trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, C.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes research to develop risk-based indicators of plant safety performance. One measure of the safety-performance of operating nuclear power plants is the unavailability of important safety systems. Brookhaven National Laboratory and Science Applications International Corporation are evaluating ways to aggregate train-level or component-level data to provide such an indicator. This type of indicator would respond to changes in plant safety margins faster than the currently used indicator of safety system unavailability (i.e., safety system failures reported in licensee event reports). Trends in the proposed indicator would be one indication of trends in plant safety performance and maintenance effectiveness. This paper summarizes the basis for such an indicator, identifies technical issues to be resolved, and illustrates the potential usefullness of such indicators by means of computer simulations and case studies

  7. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.