Temporal Architecture: Poetic Dwelling in Japanese buildings
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael Lazarin
2014-07-01
Full Text Available Heidegger’s thinking about poetic dwelling and Derrida’s impressions of Freudian estrangement are employed to provide a constitutional analysis of the experience of Japanese architecture, in particular, the Japanese vestibule (genkan. This analysis is supplemented by writings by Japanese architects and poets. The principal elements of Japanese architecture are: (1 ma, and (2 en. Ma is usually translated as ‘interval’ because, like the English word, it applies to both space and time. However, in Japanese thinking, it is not so much an either/or, but rather a both/and. In other words, Japanese architecture emphasises the temporal aspect of dwelling in a way that Western architectural thinking usually does not. En means ‘joint, edge, the in-between’ as an ambiguous, often asymmetrical spanning of interior and exterior, rather than a demarcation of these regions. Both elements are aimed at producing an experience of temporality and transiency.
Spatial and spatio-temporal bayesian models with R - INLA
Blangiardo, Marta
2015-01-01
Dedication iiiPreface ix1 Introduction 11.1 Why spatial and spatio-temporal statistics? 11.2 Why do we use Bayesian methods for modelling spatial and spatio-temporal structures? 21.3 Why INLA? 31.4 Datasets 32 Introduction to 212.1 The language 212.2 objects 222.3 Data and session management 342.4 Packages 352.5 Programming in 362.6 Basic statistical analysis with 393 Introduction to Bayesian Methods 533.1 Bayesian Philosophy 533.2 Basic Probability Elements 573.3 Bayes Theorem 623.4 Prior and Posterior Distributions 643.5 Working with the Posterior Distribution 663.6 Choosing the Prior Distr
Bayesian median regression for temporal gene expression data
Yu, Keming; Vinciotti, Veronica; Liu, Xiaohui; 't Hoen, Peter A. C.
2007-09-01
Most of the existing methods for the identification of biologically interesting genes in a temporal expression profiling dataset do not fully exploit the temporal ordering in the dataset and are based on normality assumptions for the gene expression. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian median regression model to detect genes whose temporal profile is significantly different across a number of biological conditions. The regression model is defined by a polynomial function where both time and condition effects as well as interactions between the two are included. MCMC-based inference returns the posterior distribution of the polynomial coefficients. From this a simple Bayes factor test is proposed to test for significance. The estimation of the median rather than the mean, and within a Bayesian framework, increases the robustness of the method compared to a Hotelling T2-test previously suggested. This is shown on simulated data and on muscular dystrophy gene expression data.
Bayesian calibration of simultaneity in audiovisual temporal order judgments.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shinya Yamamoto
Full Text Available After repeated exposures to two successive audiovisual stimuli presented in one frequent order, participants eventually perceive a pair separated by some lag time in the same order as occurring simultaneously (lag adaptation. In contrast, we previously found that perceptual changes occurred in the opposite direction in response to tactile stimuli, conforming to bayesian integration theory (bayesian calibration. We further showed, in theory, that the effect of bayesian calibration cannot be observed when the lag adaptation was fully operational. This led to the hypothesis that bayesian calibration affects judgments regarding the order of audiovisual stimuli, but that this effect is concealed behind the lag adaptation mechanism. In the present study, we showed that lag adaptation is pitch-insensitive using two sounds at 1046 and 1480 Hz. This enabled us to cancel lag adaptation by associating one pitch with sound-first stimuli and the other with light-first stimuli. When we presented each type of stimulus (high- or low-tone in a different block, the point of simultaneity shifted to "sound-first" for the pitch associated with sound-first stimuli, and to "light-first" for the pitch associated with light-first stimuli. These results are consistent with lag adaptation. In contrast, when we delivered each type of stimulus in a randomized order, the point of simultaneity shifted to "light-first" for the pitch associated with sound-first stimuli, and to "sound-first" for the pitch associated with light-first stimuli. The results clearly show that bayesian calibration is pitch-specific and is at work behind pitch-insensitive lag adaptation during temporal order judgment of audiovisual stimuli.
Spike-Based Bayesian-Hebbian Learning of Temporal Sequences
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tully, Philip J; Lindén, Henrik; Hennig, Matthias H
2016-01-01
Many cognitive and motor functions are enabled by the temporal representation and processing of stimuli, but it remains an open issue how neocortical microcircuits can reliably encode and replay such sequences of information. To better understand this, a modular attractor memory network is proposed...... in which meta-stable sequential attractor transitions are learned through changes to synaptic weights and intrinsic excitabilities via the spike-based Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) learning rule. We find that the formation of distributed memories, embodied by increased periods...
Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling
Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.
2016-04-01
This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support
Spike-Based Bayesian-Hebbian Learning of Temporal Sequences.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philip J Tully
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Many cognitive and motor functions are enabled by the temporal representation and processing of stimuli, but it remains an open issue how neocortical microcircuits can reliably encode and replay such sequences of information. To better understand this, a modular attractor memory network is proposed in which meta-stable sequential attractor transitions are learned through changes to synaptic weights and intrinsic excitabilities via the spike-based Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN learning rule. We find that the formation of distributed memories, embodied by increased periods of firing in pools of excitatory neurons, together with asymmetrical associations between these distinct network states, can be acquired through plasticity. The model's feasibility is demonstrated using simulations of adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model neurons (AdEx. We show that the learning and speed of sequence replay depends on a confluence of biophysically relevant parameters including stimulus duration, level of background noise, ratio of synaptic currents, and strengths of short-term depression and adaptation. Moreover, sequence elements are shown to flexibly participate multiple times in the sequence, suggesting that spiking attractor networks of this type can support an efficient combinatorial code. The model provides a principled approach towards understanding how multiple interacting plasticity mechanisms can coordinate hetero-associative learning in unison.
Temporal abstraction and temporal Bayesian networks in clinical domains: a survey.
Orphanou, Kalia; Stassopoulou, Athena; Keravnou, Elpida
2014-03-01
Temporal abstraction (TA) of clinical data aims to abstract and interpret clinical data into meaningful higher-level interval concepts. Abstracted concepts are used for diagnostic, prediction and therapy planning purposes. On the other hand, temporal Bayesian networks (TBNs) are temporal extensions of the known probabilistic graphical models, Bayesian networks. TBNs can represent temporal relationships between events and their state changes, or the evolution of a process, through time. This paper offers a survey on techniques/methods from these two areas that were used independently in many clinical domains (e.g. diabetes, hepatitis, cancer) for various clinical tasks (e.g. diagnosis, prognosis). A main objective of this survey, in addition to presenting the key aspects of TA and TBNs, is to point out important benefits from a potential integration of TA and TBNs in medical domains and tasks. The motivation for integrating these two areas is their complementary function: TA provides clinicians with high level views of data while TBNs serve as a knowledge representation and reasoning tool under uncertainty, which is inherent in all clinical tasks. Key publications from these two areas of relevance to clinical systems, mainly circumscribed to the latest two decades, are reviewed and classified. TA techniques are compared on the basis of: (a) knowledge acquisition and representation for deriving TA concepts and (b) methodology for deriving basic and complex temporal abstractions. TBNs are compared on the basis of: (a) representation of time, (b) knowledge representation and acquisition, (c) inference methods and the computational demands of the network, and (d) their applications in medicine. The survey performs an extensive comparative analysis to illustrate the separate merits and limitations of various TA and TBN techniques used in clinical systems with the purpose of anticipating potential gains through an integration of the two techniques, thus leading to a
Temporality and Memory in Architecture: Hagia Sophia
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Yüksel Burçin Nur
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Istanbul, having hosted many civilizations and cultures, has a long and important past. Due to its geopolitical locations, the city has been the capital of two civilizations—Ottoman and Byzantine Empires—which left its traces in the history of the world. Architectural and symbolic monuments built by these civilizations made an impression in all communities making the city a center of attraction. After each and every damage caused by wars, civil strifes, and natural disasters, maximum effort has been made to restore these symbolic buildings. Attitude of a society to a piece of art or an architectural construction defined as historical artifact is shown in interventions, architectural supplementations and restorations to buildings to keep them alive. As a result of this attitude, it is accepted that buildings are perceived as a place of memory and symbolized with the city. The most important symbolic monument of the city, Ayasofya (Hagia Sophia, was found as the Church of the Byzantine Emperor in the year 360, then converted into the Mosque of the Ottoman Sultan, and now serves as one of the best-known museums of Turkey. With architectural additions requested by Byzantine emperors and Ottoman sultans, restorations and other functional changes; Hagia Sophia had become a monument witnessing its own changes as well as its surroundings while collecting memories. Accordingly, Hagia Sophia can be described as an immortal building. Immortality is out of time notion, however it is a reflection of time effects as well. Immortality is about resisting to time. A construction from the past which appreciates as time passes will also exist in the future preserving its value. The building has been strengthened with the memory phenomenon formed during construction, incidents that the building witnessed in its location, restorations, architectural supplementations and the perception of the world heritage. The main purpose of this presentation is to show how
Bayesian dissection for genetic architecture of traits associated with ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
PRECIOUS
2009-12-15
Dec 15, 2009 ... model selection technique was used to dissect genetic architecture for traits of interest. A total of 28 main-effect ... nutrition elements for rice growth in natural ecosystems. In general ... All materials were sown on 28. April and ...
Spatio-Temporal Series Remote Sensing Image Prediction Based on Multi-Dictionary Bayesian Fusion
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Chu He
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Contradictions in spatial resolution and temporal coverage emerge from earth observation remote sensing images due to limitations in technology and cost. Therefore, how to combine remote sensing images with low spatial yet high temporal resolution as well as those with high spatial yet low temporal resolution to construct images with both high spatial resolution and high temporal coverage has become an important problem called spatio-temporal fusion problem in both research and practice. A Multi-Dictionary Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Reflectance Fusion Model (MDBFM has been proposed in this paper. First, multiple dictionaries from regions of different classes are trained. Second, a Bayesian framework is constructed to solve the dictionary selection problem. A pixel-dictionary likehood function and a dictionary-dictionary prior function are constructed under the Bayesian framework. Third, remote sensing images before and after the middle moment are combined to predict images at the middle moment. Diverse shapes and textures information is learned from different landscapes in multi-dictionary learning to help dictionaries capture the distinctions between regions. The Bayesian framework makes full use of the priori information while the input image is classified. The experiments with one simulated dataset and two satellite datasets validate that the MDBFM is highly effective in both subjective and objective evaluation indexes. The results of MDBFM show more precise details and have a higher similarity with real images when dealing with both type changes and phenology changes.
Study on Optimization of I and C Architecture for Research Reactors Using Bayesian Networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rahman, Khaili Ur; Shin, Jinsoo; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)
2013-07-01
The optimization in terms of redundancy of modules and components in Instrumentation and Control (I and C) architecture is based on cost and availability assuming regulatory requirements are satisfied. The motive of this study is to find an optimized I and C architecture, either in hybrid formation, fully digital or analog, with respect to system availability and relative cost of architecture. The cost of research reactors I and C systems is prone to have effect on marketing competitiveness. As a demonstrative example, the reactor protection system of research reactors is selected. The four cases with different architecture formation were developed with single and double redundancy of bi-stable modules, coincidence processor module, and safety or protection circuit actuation logic. The architecture configurations are transformed to reliability block diagram (RBD) based on logical operation and function of modules. A Bayesian Network (BN) model is constructed from RBD to assess availability. The cost estimation was proposed and reliability cost index RI was suggested.
Study on Optimization of I and C Architecture for Research Reactors Using Bayesian Networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rahman, Khaili Ur; Shin, Jinsoo; Heo, Gyunyoung
2013-01-01
The optimization in terms of redundancy of modules and components in Instrumentation and Control (I and C) architecture is based on cost and availability assuming regulatory requirements are satisfied. The motive of this study is to find an optimized I and C architecture, either in hybrid formation, fully digital or analog, with respect to system availability and relative cost of architecture. The cost of research reactors I and C systems is prone to have effect on marketing competitiveness. As a demonstrative example, the reactor protection system of research reactors is selected. The four cases with different architecture formation were developed with single and double redundancy of bi-stable modules, coincidence processor module, and safety or protection circuit actuation logic. The architecture configurations are transformed to reliability block diagram (RBD) based on logical operation and function of modules. A Bayesian Network (BN) model is constructed from RBD to assess availability. The cost estimation was proposed and reliability cost index RI was suggested
Yetton, Benjamin D; McDevitt, Elizabeth A; Cellini, Nicola; Shelton, Christian; Mednick, Sara C
2018-01-01
The pattern of sleep stages across a night (sleep architecture) is influenced by biological, behavioral, and clinical variables. However, traditional measures of sleep architecture such as stage proportions, fail to capture sleep dynamics. Here we quantify the impact of individual differences on the dynamics of sleep architecture and determine which factors or set of factors best predict the next sleep stage from current stage information. We investigated the influence of age, sex, body mass index, time of day, and sleep time on static (e.g. minutes in stage, sleep efficiency) and dynamic measures of sleep architecture (e.g. transition probabilities and stage duration distributions) using a large dataset of 3202 nights from a non-clinical population. Multi-level regressions show that sex effects duration of all Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) stages, and age has a curvilinear relationship for Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO) and slow wave sleep (SWS) minutes. Bayesian network modeling reveals sleep architecture depends on time of day, total sleep time, age and sex, but not BMI. Older adults, and particularly males, have shorter bouts (more fragmentation) of Stage 2, SWS, and they transition less frequently to these stages. Additionally, we showed that the next sleep stage and its duration can be optimally predicted by the prior 2 stages and age. Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of big data and Bayesian network approaches in quantifying static and dynamic architecture of normal sleep.
Evolution of bayesian-related research over time: a temporal text mining task
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
de Waal, A
2006-06-01
Full Text Available Ronald Reagan’s Radio Addresses? Bayesian Analysis 2006, Volume 1, Number 2, pp. 189-383. 2. Mei Q and Zhai C, 2005. Discovering Evolutionary Theme Patterns from Text – An Exploration of Temporal Text Mining. KDD’05, August 21-24, 2005. Chicago...
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Suparta, W.; Gusrizal, G.; Kudela, Karel; Isa, Z.
2017-01-01
Roč. 28, č. 3 (2017), s. 357-370 ISSN 1017-0839 R&D Projects: GA MŠk EF15_003/0000481 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : trapped particle * spatio-temporal * hierarchical Bayesian * forecasting Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 0.752, year: 2016
Compiling quantum circuits to realistic hardware architectures using temporal planners
Venturelli, Davide; Do, Minh; Rieffel, Eleanor; Frank, Jeremy
2018-04-01
To run quantum algorithms on emerging gate-model quantum hardware, quantum circuits must be compiled to take into account constraints on the hardware. For near-term hardware, with only limited means to mitigate decoherence, it is critical to minimize the duration of the circuit. We investigate the application of temporal planners to the problem of compiling quantum circuits to newly emerging quantum hardware. While our approach is general, we focus on compiling to superconducting hardware architectures with nearest neighbor constraints. Our initial experiments focus on compiling Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz (QAOA) circuits whose high number of commuting gates allow great flexibility in the order in which the gates can be applied. That freedom makes it more challenging to find optimal compilations but also means there is a greater potential win from more optimized compilation than for less flexible circuits. We map this quantum circuit compilation problem to a temporal planning problem, and generated a test suite of compilation problems for QAOA circuits of various sizes to a realistic hardware architecture. We report compilation results from several state-of-the-art temporal planners on this test set. This early empirical evaluation demonstrates that temporal planning is a viable approach to quantum circuit compilation.
A Bayesian Approach to Model Selection in Hierarchical Mixtures-of-Experts Architectures.
Tanner, Martin A.; Peng, Fengchun; Jacobs, Robert A.
1997-03-01
There does not exist a statistical model that shows good performance on all tasks. Consequently, the model selection problem is unavoidable; investigators must decide which model is best at summarizing the data for each task of interest. This article presents an approach to the model selection problem in hierarchical mixtures-of-experts architectures. These architectures combine aspects of generalized linear models with those of finite mixture models in order to perform tasks via a recursive "divide-and-conquer" strategy. Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is used to estimate the distribution of the architectures' parameters. One part of our approach to model selection attempts to estimate the worth of each component of an architecture so that relatively unused components can be pruned from the architecture's structure. A second part of this approach uses a Bayesian hypothesis testing procedure in order to differentiate inputs that carry useful information from nuisance inputs. Simulation results suggest that the approach presented here adheres to the dictum of Occam's razor; simple architectures that are adequate for summarizing the data are favored over more complex structures. Copyright 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia
Manga, Edna; Awang, Norhashidah
2016-06-01
This article presents an application of a Bayesian spatio-temporal Gaussian process (GP) model on particulate matter concentrations from Peninsular Malaysia. We analyze daily PM10 concentration levels from 35 monitoring sites in June and July 2011. The spatiotemporal model set in a Bayesian hierarchical framework allows for inclusion of informative covariates, meteorological variables and spatiotemporal interactions. Posterior density estimates of the model parameters are obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Preliminary data analysis indicate information on PM10 levels at sites classified as industrial locations could explain part of the space time variations. We include the site-type indicator in our modeling efforts. Results of the parameter estimates for the fitted GP model show significant spatio-temporal structure and positive effect of the location-type explanatory variable. We also compute some validation criteria for the out of sample sites that show the adequacy of the model for predicting PM10 at unmonitored sites.
Bayesian Modeling of Temporal Coherence in Videos for Entity Discovery and Summarization.
Mitra, Adway; Biswas, Soma; Bhattacharyya, Chiranjib
2017-03-01
A video is understood by users in terms of entities present in it. Entity Discovery is the task of building appearance model for each entity (e.g., a person), and finding all its occurrences in the video. We represent a video as a sequence of tracklets, each spanning 10-20 frames, and associated with one entity. We pose Entity Discovery as tracklet clustering, and approach it by leveraging Temporal Coherence (TC): the property that temporally neighboring tracklets are likely to be associated with the same entity. Our major contributions are the first Bayesian nonparametric models for TC at tracklet-level. We extend Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) to TC-CRP, and further to Temporally Coherent Chinese Restaurant Franchise (TC-CRF) to jointly model entities and temporal segments using mixture components and sparse distributions. For discovering persons in TV serial videos without meta-data like scripts, these methods show considerable improvement over state-of-the-art approaches to tracklet clustering in terms of clustering accuracy, cluster purity and entity coverage. The proposed methods can perform online tracklet clustering on streaming videos unlike existing approaches, and can automatically reject false tracklets. Finally we discuss entity-driven video summarization- where temporal segments of the video are selected based on the discovered entities, to create a semantically meaningful summary.
Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis and geospatial risk factors of human monocytic ehrlichiosis.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ram K Raghavan
Full Text Available Variations in spatio-temporal patterns of Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis (HME infection in the state of Kansas, USA were examined and the relationship between HME relative risk and various environmental, climatic and socio-economic variables were evaluated. HME data used in the study was reported to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment between years 2005-2012, and geospatial variables representing the physical environment [National Land cover/Land use, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS], climate [NASA MODIS, Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy (POWER], and socio-economic conditions (US Census Bureau were derived from publicly available sources. Following univariate screening of candidate variables using logistic regressions, two Bayesian hierarchical models were fit; a partial spatio-temporal model with random effects and a spatio-temporal interaction term, and a second model that included additional covariate terms. The best fitting model revealed that spatio-temporal autocorrelation in Kansas increased steadily from 2005-2012, and identified poverty status, relative humidity, and an interactive factor, 'diurnal temperature range x mixed forest area' as significant county-level risk factors for HME. The identification of significant spatio-temporal pattern and new risk factors are important in the context of HME prevention, for future research in the areas of ecology and evolution of HME, and as well as climate change impacts on tick-borne diseases.
A Bayesian spatio-temporal geostatistical model with an auxiliary lattice for large datasets
Xu, Ganggang
2015-01-01
When spatio-temporal datasets are large, the computational burden can lead to failures in the implementation of traditional geostatistical tools. In this paper, we propose a computationally efficient Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model in which the spatial dependence is approximated by a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) while the temporal correlation is described using a vector autoregressive model. By introducing an auxiliary lattice on the spatial region of interest, the proposed method is not only able to handle irregularly spaced observations in the spatial domain, but it is also able to bypass the missing data problem in a spatio-temporal process. Because the computational complexity of the proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is of the order O(n) with n the total number of observations in space and time, our method can be used to handle very large spatio-temporal datasets with reasonable CPU times. The performance of the proposed model is illustrated using simulation studies and a dataset of precipitation data from the coterminous United States.
Paz-Linares, Deirel; Vega-Hernández, Mayrim; Rojas-López, Pedro A; Valdés-Hernández, Pedro A; Martínez-Montes, Eduardo; Valdés-Sosa, Pedro A
2017-01-01
The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods
Evaluation of spatio-temporal Bayesian models for the spread of infectious diseases in oil palm.
Denis, Marie; Cochard, Benoît; Syahputra, Indra; de Franqueville, Hubert; Tisné, Sébastien
2018-02-01
In the field of epidemiology, studies are often focused on mapping diseases in relation to time and space. Hierarchical modeling is a common flexible and effective tool for modeling problems related to disease spread. In the context of oil palm plantations infected by the fungal pathogen Ganoderma boninense, we propose and compare two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models addressing the lack of information on propagation modes and transmission vectors. We investigate two alternative process models to study the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process. The models help gain insight into the spatio-temporal dynamic of the infection by identifying a genetic component in the disease spread and by highlighting a spatial component acting at the end of the experiment. In this challenging context, we propose models that provide assumptions on the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process while making short-term predictions using ready-to-use software. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bayesian spatio-temporal discard model in a demersal trawl fishery
Grazia Pennino, M.; Muñoz, Facundo; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Bellido, José M.
2014-07-01
Spatial management of discards has recently been proposed as a useful tool for the protection of juveniles, by reducing discard rates and can be used as a buffer against management errors and recruitment failure. In this study Bayesian hierarchical spatial models have been used to analyze about 440 trawl fishing operations of two different metiers, sampled between 2009 and 2012, in order to improve our understanding of factors that influence the quantity of discards and to identify their spatio-temporal distribution in the study area. Our analysis showed that the relative importance of each variable was different for each metier, with a few similarities. In particular, the random vessel effect and seasonal variability were identified as main driving variables for both metiers. Predictive maps of the abundance of discards and maps of the posterior mean of the spatial component show several hot spots with high discard concentration for each metier. We argue how the seasonal/spatial effects, and the knowledge about the factors influential to discarding, could potentially be exploited as potential mitigation measures for future fisheries management strategies. However, misidentification of hotspots and uncertain predictions can culminate in inappropriate mitigation practices which can sometimes be irreversible. The proposed Bayesian spatial method overcomes these issues, since it offers a unified approach which allows the incorporation of spatial random-effect terms, spatial correlation of the variables and the uncertainty of the parameters in the modeling process, resulting in a better quantification of the uncertainty and accurate predictions.
Wang, L.; Davis, J. L.; Tamisiea, M. E.
2017-12-01
The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) holds about 60% of all fresh water on the Earth, an amount equivalent to about 58 m of sea-level rise. Observation of AIS mass change is thus essential in determining and predicting its contribution to sea level. While the ice mass loss estimates for West Antarctica (WA) and the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are in good agreement, what the mass balance over East Antarctica (EA) is, and whether or not it compensates for the mass loss is under debate. Besides the different error sources and sensitivities of different measurement types, complex spatial and temporal variabilities would be another factor complicating the accurate estimation of the AIS mass balance. Therefore, a model that allows for variabilities in both melting rate and seasonal signals would seem appropriate in the estimation of present-day AIS melting. We present a stochastic filter technique, which enables the Bayesian separation of the systematic stripe noise and mass signal in decade-length GRACE monthly gravity series, and allows the estimation of time-variable seasonal and inter-annual components in the signals. One of the primary advantages of this Bayesian method is that it yields statistically rigorous uncertainty estimates reflecting the inherent spatial resolution of the data. By applying the stochastic filter to the decade-long GRACE observations, we present the temporal variabilities of the AIS mass balance at basin scale, particularly over East Antarctica, and decipher the EA mass variations in the past decade, and their role in affecting overall AIS mass balance and sea level.
Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling of tobacco-related cancer mortality in Switzerland
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Verena Jürgens
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Tobacco smoking is a main cause of disease in Switzerland; lung cancer being the most common cancer mortality in men and the second most common in women. Although disease-specific mortality is decreasing in men, it is steadily increasing in women. The four language regions in this country might play a role in this context as they are influenced in different ways by the cultural and social behaviour of neighbouring countries. Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal, negative binomial models were fitted on subgroup-specific death rates indirectly standardized by national references to explore age- and gender-specific spatio-temporal patterns of mortality due to lung cancer and other tobacco-related cancers in Switzerland for the time period 1969-2002. Differences influenced by linguistic region and life in rural or urban areas were also accounted for. Male lung cancer mortality was found to be rather homogeneous in space, whereas women were confirmed to be more affected in urban regions. Compared to the German-speaking part, female mortality was higher in the French-speaking part of the country, a result contradicting other reports of similar comparisons between France and Germany. The spatio-temporal patterns of mortality were similar for lung cancer and other tobacco-related cancers. The estimated mortality maps can support the planning in health care services and evaluation of a national tobacco control programme. Better understanding of spatial and temporal variation of cancer of the lung and other tobacco-related cancers may help in allocating resources for more effective screening, diagnosis and therapy. The methodology can be applied to similar studies in other settings.
Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh
2017-08-29
In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories in terms of seismicity forecasts play quite a crucial role in emergency decision-making and risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term. We propose robust forecasting of seismicity based on ETAS model, by exploiting the link between Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers the uncertainty not only in the model parameters, conditioned on the available catalogue of events occurred before the forecasting interval, but also the uncertainty in the sequence of events that are going to happen during the forecasting interval. We demonstrate the methodology by retrospective early forecasting of seismicity associated with the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence activities in central Italy. We provide robust spatio-temporal short-term seismicity forecasts with various time intervals in the first few days elapsed after each of the three main events within the sequence, which can predict the seismicity within plus/minus two standard deviations from the mean estimate within the few hours elapsed after the main event.
Zaveri, Mazad Shaheriar
The semiconductor/computer industry has been following Moore's law for several decades and has reaped the benefits in speed and density of the resultant scaling. Transistor density has reached almost one billion per chip, and transistor delays are in picoseconds. However, scaling has slowed down, and the semiconductor industry is now facing several challenges. Hybrid CMOS/nano technologies, such as CMOL, are considered as an interim solution to some of the challenges. Another potential architectural solution includes specialized architectures for applications/models in the intelligent computing domain, one aspect of which includes abstract computational models inspired from the neuro/cognitive sciences. Consequently in this dissertation, we focus on the hardware implementations of Bayesian Memory (BM), which is a (Bayesian) Biologically Inspired Computational Model (BICM). This model is a simplified version of George and Hawkins' model of the visual cortex, which includes an inference framework based on Judea Pearl's belief propagation. We then present a "hardware design space exploration" methodology for implementing and analyzing the (digital and mixed-signal) hardware for the BM. This particular methodology involves: analyzing the computational/operational cost and the related micro-architecture, exploring candidate hardware components, proposing various custom hardware architectures using both traditional CMOS and hybrid nanotechnology - CMOL, and investigating the baseline performance/price of these architectures. The results suggest that CMOL is a promising candidate for implementing a BM. Such implementations can utilize the very high density storage/computation benefits of these new nano-scale technologies much more efficiently; for example, the throughput per 858 mm2 (TPM) obtained for CMOL based architectures is 32 to 40 times better than the TPM for a CMOS based multiprocessor/multi-FPGA system, and almost 2000 times better than the TPM for a PC
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hui Luan
2016-09-01
Full Text Available This research investigates spatio-temporal patterns of police calls-for-service in the Region of Waterloo, Canada, at a fine spatial and temporal resolution. Modeling was implemented via Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA. Temporal patterns for two-hour time periods, spatial patterns at the small-area scale, and space-time interaction (i.e., unusual departures from overall spatial and temporal patterns were estimated. Temporally, calls-for-service were found to be lowest in the early morning (02:00–03:59 and highest in the evening (20:00–21:59, while high levels of calls-for-service were spatially located in central business areas and in areas characterized by major roadways, universities, and shopping centres. Space-time interaction was observed to be geographically dispersed during daytime hours but concentrated in central business areas during evening hours. Interpreted through the routine activity theory, results are discussed with respect to law enforcement resource demand and allocation, and the advantages of modeling spatio-temporal datasets with Bayesian INLA methods are highlighted.
Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio Temporal Model Comparison on the Earth Trapped Particle Forecast
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suparta, Wayan; Gusrizal
2014-01-01
We compared two hierarchical Bayesian spatio temporal (HBST) results, Gaussian process (GP) and autoregressive (AR) models, on the Earth trapped particle forecast. Two models were employed on the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region. Electron of >30 keV (mep0e1) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 15-18 satellites data was chosen as the particle modeled. We used two weeks data to perform the model fitting on a 5°x5° grid of longitude and latitude, and 31 August 2007 was set as the date of forecast. Three statistical validations were performed on the data, i.e. the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and bias (BIAS). The statistical analysis showed that GP model performed better than AR with the average of RMSE = 0.38 and 0.63, MAPE = 11.98 and 17.30, and BIAS = 0.32 and 0.24, for GP and AR, respectively. Visual validation on both models with the NOAA map's also confirmed the superior of the GP than the AR. The variance of log flux minimum = 0.09 and 1.09, log flux maximum = 1.15 and 1.35, and in successively represents GP and AR
Deciphering structural and temporal interplays during the architectural development of mango trees.
Dambreville, Anaëlle; Lauri, Pierre-Éric; Trottier, Catherine; Guédon, Yann; Normand, Frédéric
2013-05-01
Plant architecture is commonly defined by the adjacency of organs within the structure and their properties. Few studies consider the effect of endogenous temporal factors, namely phenological factors, on the establishment of plant architecture. This study hypothesized that, in addition to the effect of environmental factors, the observed plant architecture results from both endogenous structural and temporal components, and their interplays. Mango tree, which is characterized by strong phenological asynchronisms within and between trees and by repeated vegetative and reproductive flushes during a growing cycle, was chosen as a plant model. During two consecutive growing cycles, this study described vegetative and reproductive development of 20 trees submitted to the same environmental conditions. Four mango cultivars were considered to assess possible cultivar-specific patterns. Integrative vegetative and reproductive development models incorporating generalized linear models as components were built. These models described the occurrence, intensity, and timing of vegetative and reproductive development at the growth unit scale. This study showed significant interplays between structural and temporal components of plant architectural development at two temporal scales. Within a growing cycle, earliness of bud burst was highly and positively related to earliness of vegetative development and flowering. Between growing cycles, flowering growth units delayed vegetative development compared to growth units that did not flower. These interplays explained how vegetative and reproductive phenological asynchronisms within and between trees were generated and maintained. It is suggested that causation networks involving structural and temporal components may give rise to contrasted tree architectures.
Yin, Ping; Mu, Lan; Madden, Marguerite; Vena, John E.
2014-10-01
Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in both men and women in Georgia, USA. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer risk in Georgia have not been fully studied. Hierarchical Bayesian models are used here to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk by race and gender in Georgia for the period of 2000-2007. With the census tract level as the spatial scale and the 2-year period aggregation as the temporal scale, we compare a total of seven Bayesian spatio-temporal models including two under a separate modeling framework and five under a joint modeling framework. One joint model outperforms others based on the deviance information criterion. Results show that the northwest region of Georgia has consistently high lung cancer incidence risk for all population groups during the study period. In addition, there are inverse relationships between the socioeconomic status and the lung cancer incidence risk among all Georgian population groups, and the relationships in males are stronger than those in females. By mapping more reliable variations in lung cancer incidence risk at a relatively fine spatio-temporal scale for different Georgian population groups, our study aims to better support healthcare performance assessment, etiological hypothesis generation, and health policy making.
Luan, Hui; Law, Jane; Quick, Matthew
2015-12-30
Obesity and other adverse health outcomes are influenced by individual- and neighbourhood-scale risk factors, including the food environment. At the small-area scale, past research has analysed spatial patterns of food environments for one time period, overlooking how food environments change over time. Further, past research has infrequently analysed relative healthy food access (RHFA), a measure that is more representative of food purchasing and consumption behaviours than absolute outlet density. This research applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of RHFA in the Region of Waterloo, Canada, from 2011 to 2014 at the small-area level. RHFA is calculated as the proportion of healthy food outlets (healthy outlets/healthy + unhealthy outlets) within 4-km from each small-area. This model measures spatial autocorrelation of RHFA, temporal trend of RHFA for the study region, and spatio-temporal trends of RHFA for small-areas. For the study region, a significant decreasing trend in RHFA is observed (-0.024), suggesting that food swamps have become more prevalent during the study period. For small-areas, significant decreasing temporal trends in RHFA were observed for all small-areas. Specific small-areas located in south Waterloo, north Kitchener, and southeast Cambridge exhibited the steepest decreasing spatio-temporal trends and are classified as spatio-temporal food swamps. This research demonstrates a Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach to analyse RHFA at the small-area scale. Results suggest that food swamps are more prevalent than food deserts in the Region of Waterloo. Analysing spatio-temporal trends of RHFA improves understanding of local food environment, highlighting specific small-areas where policies should be targeted to increase RHFA and reduce risk factors of adverse health outcomes such as obesity.
The future of the London Buy-To-Let property market: Simulation with temporal Bayesian Networks.
Constantinou, Anthony C; Fenton, Norman
2017-01-01
In 2015 the British government announced a number of major tax reforms for individual landlords. To give landlords time to adjust, some of these tax measures are being introduced gradually from April 2017, with full effect in tax year 2020/21. The changes in taxation have received much media attention since there has been widespread belief that the new measures were sufficiently skewed against landlords that they could signal the end of the Buy-To-Let (BTL) investment era in the UK. This paper assesses the prospective performance of BTL investments in London from the investor's perspective, and examines the impact of incoming tax reforms using a novel Temporal Bayesian Network model. The model captures uncertainties of interest by simulating the impact of changing circumstances and the interventions available to an investor at various time-steps of a BTL investment portfolio. The simulation results suggest that the new tax reforms are likely to have a detrimental effect on net profits from rental income, and this hits risk-seeking investors who favour leverage much harder than risk-averse investors who do not seek to expand their property portfolio. The impact on net profits also poses substantial risks for lossmaking returns excluding capital gains, especially in the case of rising interest rates. While this makes it less desirable or even non-viable for some to continue being a landlord, based on the current status of all factors taken into consideration for simulation, investment prospects are still likely to remain good within a reasonable range of interest rate and capital growth rate variations. The results also suggest that the recent trend of property prices in London increasing faster than rents will not continue for much longer; either capital growth rates will have to decrease, rental growth rates will have to increase, or we shall observe a combination of the two events.
The future of the London Buy-To-Let property market: Simulation with temporal Bayesian Networks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anthony C Constantinou
Full Text Available In 2015 the British government announced a number of major tax reforms for individual landlords. To give landlords time to adjust, some of these tax measures are being introduced gradually from April 2017, with full effect in tax year 2020/21. The changes in taxation have received much media attention since there has been widespread belief that the new measures were sufficiently skewed against landlords that they could signal the end of the Buy-To-Let (BTL investment era in the UK. This paper assesses the prospective performance of BTL investments in London from the investor's perspective, and examines the impact of incoming tax reforms using a novel Temporal Bayesian Network model. The model captures uncertainties of interest by simulating the impact of changing circumstances and the interventions available to an investor at various time-steps of a BTL investment portfolio. The simulation results suggest that the new tax reforms are likely to have a detrimental effect on net profits from rental income, and this hits risk-seeking investors who favour leverage much harder than risk-averse investors who do not seek to expand their property portfolio. The impact on net profits also poses substantial risks for lossmaking returns excluding capital gains, especially in the case of rising interest rates. While this makes it less desirable or even non-viable for some to continue being a landlord, based on the current status of all factors taken into consideration for simulation, investment prospects are still likely to remain good within a reasonable range of interest rate and capital growth rate variations. The results also suggest that the recent trend of property prices in London increasing faster than rents will not continue for much longer; either capital growth rates will have to decrease, rental growth rates will have to increase, or we shall observe a combination of the two events.
The future of the London Buy-To-Let property market: Simulation with temporal Bayesian Networks
Fenton, Norman
2017-01-01
In 2015 the British government announced a number of major tax reforms for individual landlords. To give landlords time to adjust, some of these tax measures are being introduced gradually from April 2017, with full effect in tax year 2020/21. The changes in taxation have received much media attention since there has been widespread belief that the new measures were sufficiently skewed against landlords that they could signal the end of the Buy-To-Let (BTL) investment era in the UK. This paper assesses the prospective performance of BTL investments in London from the investor’s perspective, and examines the impact of incoming tax reforms using a novel Temporal Bayesian Network model. The model captures uncertainties of interest by simulating the impact of changing circumstances and the interventions available to an investor at various time-steps of a BTL investment portfolio. The simulation results suggest that the new tax reforms are likely to have a detrimental effect on net profits from rental income, and this hits risk-seeking investors who favour leverage much harder than risk-averse investors who do not seek to expand their property portfolio. The impact on net profits also poses substantial risks for lossmaking returns excluding capital gains, especially in the case of rising interest rates. While this makes it less desirable or even non-viable for some to continue being a landlord, based on the current status of all factors taken into consideration for simulation, investment prospects are still likely to remain good within a reasonable range of interest rate and capital growth rate variations. The results also suggest that the recent trend of property prices in London increasing faster than rents will not continue for much longer; either capital growth rates will have to decrease, rental growth rates will have to increase, or we shall observe a combination of the two events. PMID:28654698
INLA goes extreme: Bayesian tail regression for the estimation of high spatio-temporal quantiles
Opitz, Thomas
2018-05-25
This work is motivated by the challenge organized for the 10th International Conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017) to predict daily precipitation quantiles at the 99.8% level for each month at observed and unobserved locations. Our approach is based on a Bayesian generalized additive modeling framework that is designed to estimate complex trends in marginal extremes over space and time. First, we estimate a high non-stationary threshold using a gamma distribution for precipitation intensities that incorporates spatial and temporal random effects. Then, we use the Bernoulli and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions to model the rate and size of threshold exceedances, respectively, which we also assume to vary in space and time. The latent random effects are modeled additively using Gaussian process priors, which provide high flexibility and interpretability. We develop a penalized complexity (PC) prior specification for the tail index that shrinks the GP model towards the exponential distribution, thus preventing unrealistically heavy tails. Fast and accurate estimation of the posterior distributions is performed thanks to the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). We illustrate this methodology by modeling the daily precipitation data provided by the EVA2017 challenge, which consist of observations from 40 stations in the Netherlands recorded during the period 1972–2016. Capitalizing on INLA’s fast computational capacity and powerful distributed computing resources, we conduct an extensive cross-validation study to select the model parameters that govern the smoothness of trends. Our results clearly outperform simple benchmarks and are comparable to the best-scoring approaches of the other teams.
INLA goes extreme: Bayesian tail regression for the estimation of high spatio-temporal quantiles
Opitz, Thomas; Huser, Raphaë l; Bakka, Haakon; Rue, Haavard
2018-01-01
approach is based on a Bayesian generalized additive modeling framework that is designed to estimate complex trends in marginal extremes over space and time. First, we estimate a high non-stationary threshold using a gamma distribution for precipitation
Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler
2018-01-01
Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.
Application of SCM with Bayesian B-Spline to Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Hypertension in China.
Ye, Zirong; Xu, Li; Zhou, Zi; Wu, Yafei; Fang, Ya
2018-01-02
Most previous research on the disparities of hypertension risk has neither simultaneously explored the spatio-temporal disparities nor considered the spatial information contained in the samples, thus the estimated results may be unreliable. Our study was based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), including residents over 12 years old in seven provinces from 1991 to 2011. Bayesian B-spline was used in the extended shared component model (SCM) for fitting temporal-related variation to explore spatio-temporal distribution in the odds ratio (OR) of hypertension, reveal gender variation, and explore latent risk factors. Our results revealed that the prevalence of hypertension increased from 14.09% in 1991 to 32.37% in 2011, with men experiencing a more obvious change than women. From a spatial perspective, a standardized prevalence ratio (SPR) remaining at a high level was found in Henan and Shandong for both men and women. Meanwhile, before 1997, the temporal distribution of hypertension risk for both men and women remained low. After that, notably since 2004, the OR of hypertension in each province increased to a relatively high level, especially in Northern China. Notably, the OR of hypertension in Shandong and Jiangsu, which was over 1.2, continuously stood out after 2004 for males, while that in Shandong and Guangxi was relatively high for females. The findings suggested that obvious spatial-temporal patterns for hypertension exist in the regions under research and this pattern was quite different between men and women.
Raghavan, Ram K.; Goodin, Douglas G.; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A.; Ganta, Roman R.
2016-01-01
This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio–economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio–temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio–economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main–effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate–change impacts on tick–borne diseases are discussed. PMID:26942604
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Ram K Raghavan
Full Text Available This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.
Raghavan, Ram K; Goodin, Douglas G; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A; Ganta, Roman R
2016-01-01
This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ehsani, Alireza; Sørensen, Peter; Pomp, Daniel
2012-01-01
Background To understand the genetic architecture of complex traits and bridge the genotype-phenotype gap, it is useful to study intermediate -omics data, e.g. the transcriptome. The present study introduces a method for simultaneous quantification of the contributions from single nucleotide......-modal distribution of genomic values collapses, when gene expressions are added to the model Conclusions With increased availability of various -omics data, integrative approaches are promising tools for understanding the genetic architecture of complex traits. Partitioning of explained variances at the chromosome...
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Xian-Hong Wang
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Spatial modeling is increasingly utilized to elucidate relationships between demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors, and infectious disease prevalence data. However, there is a paucity of studies focusing on spatio-temporal modeling that take into account the uncertainty of diagnostic techniques. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained Schistosoma japonicum prevalence data, based on a standardized indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA, from annual reports from 114 schistosome-endemic villages in Dangtu County, southeastern part of the People's Republic of China, for the period 1995 to 2004. Environmental data were extracted from satellite images. Socioeconomic data were available from village registries. We used Bayesian spatio-temporal models, accounting for the sensitivity and specificity of the IHA test via an equation derived from the law of total probability, to relate the observed with the 'true' prevalence. The risk of S. japonicum was positively associated with the mean land surface temperature, and negatively correlated with the mean normalized difference vegetation index and distance to the nearest water body. There was no significant association between S. japonicum and socioeconomic status of the villages surveyed. The spatial correlation structures of the observed S. japonicum seroprevalence and the estimated infection prevalence differed from one year to another. Variance estimates based on a model adjusted for the diagnostic error were larger than unadjusted models. The generated prediction map for 2005 showed that most of the former and current infections occur in close proximity to the Yangtze River. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Bayesian spatial-temporal modeling incorporating diagnostic uncertainty is a suitable approach for risk mapping S. japonicum prevalence data. The Yangtze River and its tributaries govern schistosomiasis transmission in Dangtu County, but spatial correlation needs to be taken
Wang, Xian-Hong; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Vounatsou, Penelope; Chen, Zhao; Utzinger, Jürg; Yang, Kun; Steinmann, Peter; Wu, Xiao-Hua
2008-06-11
Spatial modeling is increasingly utilized to elucidate relationships between demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors, and infectious disease prevalence data. However, there is a paucity of studies focusing on spatio-temporal modeling that take into account the uncertainty of diagnostic techniques. We obtained Schistosoma japonicum prevalence data, based on a standardized indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA), from annual reports from 114 schistosome-endemic villages in Dangtu County, southeastern part of the People's Republic of China, for the period 1995 to 2004. Environmental data were extracted from satellite images. Socioeconomic data were available from village registries. We used Bayesian spatio-temporal models, accounting for the sensitivity and specificity of the IHA test via an equation derived from the law of total probability, to relate the observed with the 'true' prevalence. The risk of S. japonicum was positively associated with the mean land surface temperature, and negatively correlated with the mean normalized difference vegetation index and distance to the nearest water body. There was no significant association between S. japonicum and socioeconomic status of the villages surveyed. The spatial correlation structures of the observed S. japonicum seroprevalence and the estimated infection prevalence differed from one year to another. Variance estimates based on a model adjusted for the diagnostic error were larger than unadjusted models. The generated prediction map for 2005 showed that most of the former and current infections occur in close proximity to the Yangtze River. Bayesian spatial-temporal modeling incorporating diagnostic uncertainty is a suitable approach for risk mapping S. japonicum prevalence data. The Yangtze River and its tributaries govern schistosomiasis transmission in Dangtu County, but spatial correlation needs to be taken into consideration when making risk prediction at small scales.
Sebastian, Nita; Kim, Seongryong; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Sippl, Christian
2017-04-01
The purpose of this study is to develop an integrated inference on the lithospheric structure of NE China using three passive seismic networks comprised of 92 stations. The NE China plain consists of complex lithospheric domains characterised by the co-existence of complex geodynamic processes such as crustal thinning, active intraplate cenozoic volcanism and low velocity anomalies. To estimate lithospheric structures with greater detail, we chose to perform the joint inversion of independent data sets such as receiver functions and surface wave dispersion curves (group and phase velocity). We perform a joint inversion based on principles of Bayesian transdimensional optimisation techniques (Kim etal., 2016). Unlike in the previous studies of NE China, the complexity of the model is determined from the data in the first stage of the inversion, and the data uncertainty is computed based on Bayesian statistics in the second stage of the inversion. The computed crustal properties are retrieved from an ensemble of probable models. We obtain major structural inferences with well constrained absolute velocity estimates, which are vital for inferring properties of the lithosphere and bulk crustal Vp/Vs ratio. The Vp/Vs estimate obtained from joint inversions confirms the high Vp/Vs ratio ( 1.98) obtained using the H-Kappa method beneath some stations. Moreover, we could confirm the existence of a lower crustal velocity beneath several stations (eg: station SHS) within the NE China plain. Based on these findings we attempt to identify a plausible origin for structural complexity. We compile a high-resolution 3D image of the lithospheric architecture of the NE China plain.
Probabilistic daily ILI syndromic surveillance with a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model.
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Ta-Chien Chan
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006-2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1-2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs.
How about a Bayesian M/EEG imaging method correcting for incomplete spatio-temporal priors
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stahlhut, Carsten; Attias, Hagai T.; Sekihara, Kensuke
2013-01-01
previous spatio-temporal inverse M/EEG models, the proposed model benefits of consisting of two source terms, namely, a spatio-temporal pattern term limiting the source configuration to a spatio-temporal subspace and a source correcting term to pick up source activity not covered by the spatio......-temporal prior belief. We have tested the model on both artificial data and real EEG data in order to demonstrate the efficacy of the model. The model was tested at different SNRs (-10.0,-5.2, -3.0, -1.0, 0, 0.8, 3.0 dB) using white noise. At all SNRs the sAquavit performs best in AUC measure, e.g. at SNR=0d...
A hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model for extreme precipitation events
Ghosh, Souparno; Mallick, Bani K.
2011-01-01
We propose a new approach to model a sequence of spatially distributed time series of extreme values. Unlike common practice, we incorporate spatial dependence directly in the likelihood and allow the temporal component to be captured at the second level of hierarchy. Inferences about the parameters and spatio-temporal predictions are obtained via MCMC technique. The model is fitted to a gridded precipitation data set collected over 99 years across the continental U.S. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..
A hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model for extreme precipitation events
Ghosh, Souparno
2011-03-01
We propose a new approach to model a sequence of spatially distributed time series of extreme values. Unlike common practice, we incorporate spatial dependence directly in the likelihood and allow the temporal component to be captured at the second level of hierarchy. Inferences about the parameters and spatio-temporal predictions are obtained via MCMC technique. The model is fitted to a gridded precipitation data set collected over 99 years across the continental U.S. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..
A Bayesian spatio-temporal geostatistical model with an auxiliary lattice for large datasets
Xu, Ganggang; Liang, Faming; Genton, Marc G.
2015-01-01
method is not only able to handle irregularly spaced observations in the spatial domain, but it is also able to bypass the missing data problem in a spatio-temporal process. Because the computational complexity of the proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo
Spatio-temporal analysis of Modified Omori law in Bayesian framework
Rezanezhad, V.; Narteau, C.; Shebalin, P.; Zoeller, G.; Holschneider, M.
2017-12-01
This work presents a study of the spatio temporal evolution of the modified Omori parameters in southern California in then time period of 1981-2016. A nearest-neighbor approach is applied for earthquake clustering. This study targets small mainshocks and corresponding big aftershocks ( 2.5 ≤ mmainshocks ≤ 4.5 and 1.8 ≤ maftershocks ≤ 2.8 ). We invert for the spatio temporal behavior of c and p values (especially c) all over the area using a MCMC based maximum likelihood estimator. As parameterizing families we use Voronoi cells with randomly distributed cell centers. Considering that c value represents a physical character like stress change we expect to see a coherent c value pattern over seismologically coacting areas. This correlation of c valus can actually be seen for the San Andreas, San Jacinto and Elsinore faults. Moreover, the depth dependency of c value is studied which shows a linear behavior of log(c) with respect to aftershock's depth within 5 to 15 km depth.
A collaborative large spatio-temporal data visual analytics architecture for emergence response
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guo, D; Li, J; Zhou, Y; Cao, H
2014-01-01
The unconventional emergency, usually outbreaks more suddenly, and is diffused more quickly, but causes more secondary damage and derives more disaster than what it is usually expected. The data volume and urgency of emergency exceeds the capacity of current emergency management systems. In this paper, we propose a three-tier collaborative spatio-temporal visual analysis architecture to support emergency management. The prototype system, based on cloud computation environment, supports aggregation of massive unstructured and semi-structured data, integration of various computing model sand algorithms; collaborative visualization and visual analytics among users with a diversity of backgrounds. The distributed data in 100TB scale is integrated in a unified platform and shared with thousands of experts and government agencies by nearly 100 models. The users explore, visualize and analyse the big data and make a collaborative countermeasures to emergencies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cheryl L Gatto
2009-08-01
Full Text Available Loss of fragile X mental retardation 1 (FMR1 gene function is the most common cause of inherited mental retardation and autism spectrum disorders, characterized by attention disorder, hyperactivity and disruption of circadian activity cycles. Pursuit of effective intervention strategies requires determining when the FMR1 product (FMRP is required in the regulation of neuronal circuitry controlling these behaviors. In the well-characterized Drosophila disease model, loss of the highly conserved dFMRP causes circadian arrhythmicity and conspicuous abnormalities in the circadian clock circuitry. Here, a novel Sholl Analysis was used to quantify over-elaborated synaptic architecture in dfmr1-null small ventrolateral neurons (sLNvs, a key subset of clock neurons. The transgenic Gene-Switch system was employed to drive conditional neuronal dFMRP expression in the dfmr1-null mutant background in order to dissect temporal requirements within the clock circuit. Introduction of dFMRP during early brain development, including the stages of neurogenesis, neuronal fate specification and early pathfinding, provided no rescue of dfmr1 mutant phenotypes. Similarly, restoring normal dFMRP expression in the adult failed to restore circadian circuit architecture. In sharp contrast, supplying dFMRP during a transient window of very late brain development, wherein synaptogenesis and substantial subsequent synaptic reorganization (e.g. use-dependent pruning occur, provided strong morphological rescue to reestablish normal sLNvs synaptic arbors. We conclude that dFMRP plays a developmentally restricted role in sculpting synaptic architecture in these neurons that cannot be compensated for by later reintroduction of the protein at maturity.
Brain-grounded theory of temporal and spatial design in architecture and the environment
Ando, Yoichi
2016-01-01
In this book, brain-grounded theory of temporal and spatial design in architecture and the environment is discussed. The author believes that it is a key to solving such global problems as environmental disorders and severe climate change as well as conflicts that are caused by the ill-conceived notion of “time is money”. There are three phases or aspects of a person’s life: the physical life, the spiritual or mental life, and the third stage of life, when a person moves from middle age into old age and can choose what he or she wishes to do instead of simply what must be done. This book describes the temporal design of the environment based on the theory of subjective preference, which could make it possible for an individual to realize a healthy life in all three phases. In his previously published work, the present author wrote that the theory of subjective preference has been established for the sound and visual fields based on neural evidence, and that subjective preference is an overall response o...
Khana, Diba; Rossen, Lauren M; Hedegaard, Holly; Warner, Margaret
2018-01-01
Hierarchical Bayes models have been used in disease mapping to examine small scale geographic variation. State level geographic variation for less common causes of mortality outcomes have been reported however county level variation is rarely examined. Due to concerns about statistical reliability and confidentiality, county-level mortality rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are suppressed based on Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) statistical reliability criteria, precluding an examination of spatio-temporal variation in less common causes of mortality outcomes such as suicide rates (SRs) at the county level using direct estimates. Existing Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategies can be applied via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) in R to a large number of rare causes of mortality outcomes to enable examination of spatio-temporal variations on smaller geographic scales such as counties. This method allows examination of spatiotemporal variation across the entire U.S., even where the data are sparse. We used mortality data from 2005-2015 to explore spatiotemporal variation in SRs, as one particular application of the Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategy in R-INLA to predict year and county-specific SRs. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models were implemented with spatially structured and unstructured random effects, correlated time effects, time varying confounders and space-time interaction terms in the software R-INLA, borrowing strength across both counties and years to produce smoothed county level SRs. Model-based estimates of SRs were mapped to explore geographic variation.
Wu, Zhen; Liu, Yong; Liang, Zhongyao; Wu, Sifeng; Guo, Huaicheng
2017-06-01
Lake eutrophication is associated with excessive anthropogenic nutrients (mainly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) and unobserved internal nutrient cycling. Despite the advances in understanding the role of external loadings, the contribution of internal nutrient cycling is still an open question. A dynamic mass-balance model was developed to simulate and measure the contributions of internal cycling and external loading. It was based on the temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Framework (BHM), where we explored the seasonal patterns in the dynamics of nutrient cycling processes and the limitation of N and P on phytoplankton growth in hyper-eutrophic Lake Dianchi, China. The dynamic patterns of the five state variables (Chla, TP, ammonia, nitrate and organic N) were simulated based on the model. Five parameters (algae growth rate, sediment exchange rate of N and P, nitrification rate and denitrification rate) were estimated based on BHM. The model provided a good fit to observations. Our model results highlighted the role of internal cycling of N and P in Lake Dianchi. The internal cycling processes contributed more than external loading to the N and P changes in the water column. Further insights into the nutrient limitation analysis indicated that the sediment exchange of P determined the P limitation. Allowing for the contribution of denitrification to N removal, N was the more limiting nutrient in most of the time, however, P was the more important nutrient for eutrophication management. For Lake Dianchi, it would not be possible to recover solely by reducing the external watershed nutrient load; the mechanisms of internal cycling should also be considered as an approach to inhibit the release of sediments and to enhance denitrification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Clear, Nic
2014-01-01
When discussing science fiction’s relationship with architecture, the usual practice is to look at the architecture “in” science fiction—in particular, the architecture in SF films (see Kuhn 75-143) since the spaces of literary SF present obvious difficulties as they have to be imagined. In this essay, that relationship will be reversed: I will instead discuss science fiction “in” architecture, mapping out a number of architectural movements and projects that can be viewed explicitly as scien...
Chambon, Stanislas; Galtier, Mathieu N; Arnal, Pierrick J; Wainrib, Gilles; Gramfort, Alexandre
2018-04-01
Sleep stage classification constitutes an important preliminary exam in the diagnosis of sleep disorders. It is traditionally performed by a sleep expert who assigns to each 30 s of the signal of a sleep stage, based on the visual inspection of signals such as electroencephalograms (EEGs), electrooculograms (EOGs), electrocardiograms, and electromyograms (EMGs). We introduce here the first deep learning approach for sleep stage classification that learns end-to-end without computing spectrograms or extracting handcrafted features, that exploits all multivariate and multimodal polysomnography (PSG) signals (EEG, EMG, and EOG), and that can exploit the temporal context of each 30-s window of data. For each modality, the first layer learns linear spatial filters that exploit the array of sensors to increase the signal-to-noise ratio, and the last layer feeds the learnt representation to a softmax classifier. Our model is compared to alternative automatic approaches based on convolutional networks or decisions trees. Results obtained on 61 publicly available PSG records with up to 20 EEG channels demonstrate that our network architecture yields the state-of-the-art performance. Our study reveals a number of insights on the spatiotemporal distribution of the signal of interest: a good tradeoff for optimal classification performance measured with balanced accuracy is to use 6 EEG with 2 EOG (left and right) and 3 EMG chin channels. Also exploiting 1 min of data before and after each data segment offers the strongest improvement when a limited number of channels are available. As sleep experts, our system exploits the multivariate and multimodal nature of PSG signals in order to deliver the state-of-the-art classification performance with a small computational cost.
Bonilha, Leonardo; Gleichgerrcht, Ezequiel; Nesland, Travis; Rorden, Chris; Fridriksson, Julius
2016-03-01
Targeted speech therapy can lead to substantial naming improvement in some subjects with anomia following dominant-hemisphere stroke. We investigated whether treatment-induced improvement in naming is associated with poststroke preservation of structural neural network architecture. Twenty-four patients with poststroke chronic aphasia underwent 30 hours of speech therapy over a 2-week period and were assessed at baseline and after therapy. Whole brain maps of neural architecture were constructed from pretreatment diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging to derive measures of global brain network architecture (network small-worldness) and regional network influence (nodal betweenness centrality). Their relationship with naming recovery was evaluated with multiple linear regressions. Treatment-induced improvement in correct naming was associated with poststroke preservation of global network small worldness and of betweenness centrality in temporal lobe cortical regions. Together with baseline aphasia severity, these measures explained 78% of the variability in treatment response. Preservation of global and left temporal structural connectivity broadly explains the variability in treatment-related naming improvement in aphasia. These findings corroborate and expand on previous classical lesion-symptom mapping studies by elucidating some of the mechanisms by which brain damage may relate to treated aphasia recovery. Favorable naming outcomes may result from the intact connections between spared cortical areas that are functionally responsive to treatment. © The Author(s) 2015.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sharon Chiang
2017-12-01
Full Text Available We develop an integrative Bayesian predictive modeling framework that identifies individual pathological brain states based on the selection of fluoro-deoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET imaging biomarkers and evaluates the association of those states with a clinical outcome. We consider data from a study on temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE patients who subsequently underwent anterior temporal lobe resection. Our modeling framework looks at the observed profiles of regional glucose metabolism in PET as the phenotypic manifestation of a latent individual pathologic state, which is assumed to vary across the population. The modeling strategy we adopt allows the identification of patient subgroups characterized by latent pathologies differentially associated to the clinical outcome of interest. It also identifies imaging biomarkers characterizing the pathological states of the subjects. In the data application, we identify a subgroup of TLE patients at high risk for post-surgical seizure recurrence after anterior temporal lobe resection, together with a set of discriminatory brain regions that can be used to distinguish the latent subgroups. We show that the proposed method achieves high cross-validated accuracy in predicting post-surgical seizure recurrence.
Zhang, Linlin; Guindani, Michele; Versace, Francesco; Vannucci, Marina
2014-07-15
In this paper we present a novel wavelet-based Bayesian nonparametric regression model for the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Our goal is to provide a joint analytical framework that allows to detect regions of the brain which exhibit neuronal activity in response to a stimulus and, simultaneously, infer the association, or clustering, of spatially remote voxels that exhibit fMRI time series with similar characteristics. We start by modeling the data with a hemodynamic response function (HRF) with a voxel-dependent shape parameter. We detect regions of the brain activated in response to a given stimulus by using mixture priors with a spike at zero on the coefficients of the regression model. We account for the complex spatial correlation structure of the brain by using a Markov random field (MRF) prior on the parameters guiding the selection of the activated voxels, therefore capturing correlation among nearby voxels. In order to infer association of the voxel time courses, we assume correlated errors, in particular long memory, and exploit the whitening properties of discrete wavelet transforms. Furthermore, we achieve clustering of the voxels by imposing a Dirichlet process (DP) prior on the parameters of the long memory process. For inference, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques that combine Metropolis-Hastings schemes employed in Bayesian variable selection with sampling algorithms for nonparametric DP models. We explore the performance of the proposed model on simulated data, with both block- and event-related design, and on real fMRI data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Thomas J Rodhouse
Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.
A decade of understanding spatio-temporal regulation of DNA repair by the nuclear architecture.
Saad, Hicham; Cobb, Jennifer A
2016-10-01
The nucleus is a hub for gene expression and is a highly organized entity. The nucleoplasm is heterogeneous, owing to the preferential localization of specific metabolic factors, which lead to the definition of nuclear compartments or bodies. The genome is organized into chromosome territories, as well as heterochromatin and euchromatin domains. Recent observations have indicated that nuclear organization is important for maintaining genomic stability. For example, nuclear organization has been implicated in stabilizing damaged DNA, repair-pathway choice, and in preventing chromosomal rearrangements. Over the past decade, several studies have revealed that dynamic changes in the nuclear architecture are important during double-strand break repair. Stemming from work in yeast, relocation of a damaged site prior to repair appears to be at least partially conserved in multicellular eukaryotes. In this review, we will discuss genome and nucleoplasm architecture, particularly the importance of the nuclear periphery in genome stability. We will also discuss how the site of relocation regulates repair-pathway choice.
Herrmann, Christian; Ess, Silvia; Thürlimann, Beat; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Vounatsou, Penelope
2015-10-09
In the past decades, mortality of female gender related cancers declined in Switzerland and other developed countries. Differences in the decrease and in spatial patterns within Switzerland have been reported according to urbanisation and language region, and remain controversial. We aimed to investigate geographical and temporal trends of breast, ovarian, cervical and uterine cancer mortality, assess whether differential trends exist and to provide updated results until 2011. Breast, ovarian, cervical and uterine cancer mortality and population data for Switzerland in the period 1969-2011 was retrieved from the Swiss Federal Statistical office (FSO). Cases were grouped into Switzerland since 1990. Geographical differences are small, present on a regional or canton-overspanning level, and different for each cancer site and age group. No general significant association with cantonal or language region borders could be observed.
Neumann, Kerstin; Zhao, Yusheng; Chu, Jianting; Keilwagen, Jens; Reif, Jochen C; Kilian, Benjamin; Graner, Andreas
2017-08-10
Genetic mapping of phenotypic traits generally focuses on a single time point, but biomass accumulates continuously during plant development. Resolution of the temporal dynamics that affect biomass recently became feasible using non-destructive imaging. With the aim to identify key genetic factors for vegetative biomass formation from the seedling stage to flowering, we explored growth over time in a diverse collection of two-rowed spring barley accessions. High heritabilities facilitated the temporal analysis of trait relationships and identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL). Biomass QTL tended to persist only a short period during early growth. More persistent QTL were detected around the booting stage. We identified seven major biomass QTL, which together explain 55% of the genetic variance at the seedling stage, and 43% at the booting stage. Three biomass QTL co-located with genes or QTL involved in phenology. The most important locus for biomass was independent from phenology and is located on chromosome 7HL at 141 cM. This locus explained ~20% of the genetic variance, was significant over a long period of time and co-located with HvDIM, a gene involved in brassinosteroid synthesis. Biomass is a dynamic trait and is therefore orchestrated by different QTL during early and late growth stages. Marker-assisted selection for high biomass at booting stage is most effective by also including favorable alleles from seedling biomass QTL. Selection for dynamic QTL may enhance genetic gain for complex traits such as biomass or, in the future, even grain yield.
Lesaffre, Emmanuel
2012-01-01
The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd
ZHOU, Lin
1996-01-01
In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism
Black, B.; Harte, M.; Goldfinger, C.
2017-12-01
Participating in a ten-year monitoring project to assess the ecological, social, and socioeconomic impacts of Oregon's Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), we have worked in partnership with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) to develop a Bayesian geospatial method to evaluate the spatial and temporal variance in the provision of ecosystem services produced by Oregon's MPAs. Probabilistic (Bayesian) approaches to Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) show considerable potential for addressing issues such as uncertainty, cumulative effects, and the need to integrate stakeholder-held information and preferences into decision making processes. To that end, we have created a Bayesian-based geospatial approach to MSP capable of modelling the evolution of the provision of ecosystem services before and after the establishment of Oregon's MPAs. Our approach permits both planners and stakeholders to view expected impacts of differing policies, behaviors, or choices made concerning Oregon's MPAs and surrounding areas in a geospatial (map) format while simultaneously considering multiple parties' beliefs on the policies or uses in question. We quantify the influence of the MPAs as the shift in the spatial distribution of ecosystem services, both inside and outside the protected areas, over time. Once the MPAs' influence on the provision of coastal ecosystem services has been evaluated, it is possible to view these impacts through geovisualization techniques. As a specific example of model use and output, a user could investigate the effects of altering the habitat preferences of a rockfish species over a prescribed period of time (5, 10, 20 years post-harvesting restrictions, etc.) on the relative intensity of spillover from nearby reserves (please see submitted figure). Particular strengths of our Bayesian-based approach include its ability to integrate highly disparate input types (qualitative or quantitative), to accommodate data gaps, address uncertainty, and to
Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.
Sasu, L M; Andonie, R
2013-10-01
Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yongze Song
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The integration of building information modelling (BIM and geographic information system (GIS in construction management is a new and fast developing trend in recent years, from research to industrial practice. BIM has advantages on rich geometric and semantic information through the building life cycle, while GIS is a broad field covering geovisualization-based decision making and geospatial modelling. However, most current studies of BIM-GIS integration focus on the integration techniques but lack theories and methods for further data analysis and mathematic modelling. This paper reviews the applications and discusses future trends of BIM-GIS integration in the architecture, engineering and construction (AEC industry based on the studies of 96 high-quality research articles from a spatio-temporal statistical perspective. The analysis of these applications helps reveal the evolution progress of BIM-GIS integration. Results show that the utilization of BIM-GIS integration in the AEC industry requires systematic theories beyond integration technologies and deep applications of mathematical modeling methods, including spatio-temporal statistical modeling in GIS and 4D/nD BIM simulation and management. Opportunities of BIM-GIS integration are outlined as three hypotheses in the AEC industry for future research on the in-depth integration of BIM and GIS. BIM-GIS integration hypotheses enable more comprehensive applications through the life cycle of AEC projects.
Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel
2013-01-01
Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean
Munsell, B C; Wu, G; Fridriksson, J; Thayer, K; Mofrad, N; Desisto, N; Shen, D; Bonilha, L
2017-09-09
Impaired confrontation naming is a common symptom of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). The neurobiological mechanisms underlying this impairment are poorly understood but may indicate a structural disorganization of broadly distributed neuronal networks that support naming ability. Importantly, naming is frequently impaired in other neurological disorders and by contrasting the neuronal structures supporting naming in TLE with other diseases, it will become possible to elucidate the common systems supporting naming. We aimed to evaluate the neuronal networks that support naming in TLE by using a machine learning algorithm intended to predict naming performance in subjects with medication refractory TLE using only the structural brain connectome reconstructed from diffusion tensor imaging. A connectome-based prediction framework was developed using network properties from anatomically defined brain regions across the entire brain, which were used in a multi-task machine learning algorithm followed by support vector regression. Nodal eigenvector centrality, a measure of regional network integration, predicted approximately 60% of the variance in naming. The nodes with the highest regression weight were bilaterally distributed among perilimbic sub-networks involving mainly the medial and lateral temporal lobe regions. In the context of emerging evidence regarding the role of large structural networks that support language processing, our results suggest intact naming relies on the integration of sub-networks, as opposed to being dependent on isolated brain areas. In the case of TLE, these sub-networks may be disproportionately indicative naming processes that are dependent semantic integration from memory and lexical retrieval, as opposed to multi-modal perception or motor speech production. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Patrick G T Walker
2010-02-01
Full Text Available Outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry in Vietnam continue to threaten the livelihoods of those reliant on poultry production whilst simultaneously posing a severe public health risk given the high mortality associated with human infection. Authorities have invested significant resources in order to control these outbreaks. Of particular interest is the decision, following a second wave of outbreaks, to move from a "stamping out" approach to the implementation of a nationwide mass vaccination campaign. Outbreaks which occurred around this shift in policy provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the relative effectiveness of these approaches and to help other countries make informed judgements when developing control strategies. Here we use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC data augmentation techniques to derive the first quantitative estimates of the impact of the vaccination campaign on the spread of outbreaks of H5N1 in northern Vietnam. We find a substantial decrease in the transmissibility of infection between communes following vaccination. This was coupled with a significant increase in the time from infection to detection of the outbreak. Using a cladistic approach we estimated that, according to the posterior mean effect of pruning the reconstructed epidemic tree, two thirds of the outbreaks in 2007 could be attributed to this decrease in the rate of reporting. The net impact of these two effects was a less intense but longer-lasting wave and, whilst not sufficient to prevent the sustained spread of outbreaks, an overall reduction in the likelihood of the transmission of infection between communes. These findings highlight the need for more effectively targeted surveillance in order to help ensure that the effective coverage achieved by mass vaccination is converted into a reduction in the likelihood of outbreaks occurring which is sufficient to control the spread of H5N1 in Vietnam.
Likova, Lora T.
2015-03-01
This study is based on the recent discovery of massive and well-structured cross-modal memory activation generated in the primary visual cortex (V1) of totally blind people as a result of novel training in drawing without any vision (Likova, 2012). This unexpected functional reorganization of primary visual cortex was obtained after undergoing only a week of training by the novel Cognitive-Kinesthetic Method, and was consistent across pilot groups of different categories of visual deprivation: congenitally blind, late-onset blind and blindfolded (Likova, 2014). These findings led us to implicate V1 as the implementation of the theoretical visuo-spatial 'sketchpad' for working memory in the human brain. Since neither the source nor the subsequent 'recipient' of this non-visual memory information in V1 is known, these results raise a number of important questions about the underlying functional organization of the respective encoding and retrieval networks in the brain. To address these questions, an individual totally blind from birth was given a week of Cognitive-Kinesthetic training, accompanied by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) both before and just after training, and again after a two-month consolidation period. The results revealed a remarkable temporal sequence of training-based response reorganization in both the hippocampal complex and the temporal-lobe object processing hierarchy over the prolonged consolidation period. In particular, a pattern of profound learning-based transformations in the hippocampus was strongly reflected in V1, with the retrieval function showing massive growth as result of the Cognitive-Kinesthetic memory training and consolidation, while the initially strong hippocampal response during tactile exploration and encoding became non-existent. Furthermore, after training, an alternating patch structure in the form of a cascade of discrete ventral regions underwent radical transformations to reach complete functional
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre
2016-01-01
Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...
Introduction to Bayesian statistics
Bolstad, William M
2017-01-01
There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...
Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks for continuous data
Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk
Classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption and cannot deal with non-homogeneous temporal processes. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have recently been proposed. The present paper presents a combination of a Bayesian network with
Bayesian artificial intelligence
Korb, Kevin B
2010-01-01
Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente
Bayesian artificial intelligence
Korb, Kevin B
2003-01-01
As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.
Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.
2009-01-01
This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...
Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.
2017-01-01
We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian
Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks
Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kiib, Hans
2009-01-01
as "experiencescape" - a space between tourism, culture, learning and economy. Strategies related to these challenges involve new architectural concepts and art as ‘engines' for a change. New expressive architecture and old industrial buildings are often combined into hybrid narratives, linking the past...... with the future. But this is not enough. The agenda is to develop architectural spaces, where social interaction and learning are enhanced by art and fun. How can we develop new architectural designs in our inner cities and waterfronts where eventscapes, learning labs and temporal use are merged with everyday...
Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philippe Lemey
2009-09-01
Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.
Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics
Bolstad, William M
2011-01-01
A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic
Bayesian statistics an introduction
Lee, Peter M
2012-01-01
Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bardram, Jakob Eyvind; Christensen, Henrik Bærbak; Hansen, Klaus Marius
2004-01-01
A major part of software architecture design is learning how specific architectural designs balance the concerns of stakeholders. We explore the notion of "architectural prototypes", correspondingly architectural prototyping, as a means of using executable prototypes to investigate stakeholders...
Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.
2000-01-01
A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olesen, Karen
2016-01-01
that is not scientific or academic but is more like a latent body of data that we find embedded in existing works of architecture. This information, it is argued, is not limited by the historical context of the work. It can be thought of as a virtual capacity – a reservoir of spatial configurations that can...... correlation between the study of existing architectures and the training of competences to design for present-day realities.......This paper will discuss the challenges faced by architectural education today. It takes as its starting point the double commitment of any school of architecture: on the one hand the task of preserving the particular knowledge that belongs to the discipline of architecture, and on the other hand...
Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.
2009-01-01
In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…
Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.
2000-01-01
We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike
von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo
2014-06-01
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
Mocapy++ - a toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paluszewski, Martin; Hamelryck, Thomas Wim
2010-01-01
Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations...
Albert, Jim
2009-01-01
There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl
Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.
Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M
2018-02-01
This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.
Bayesian methods for data analysis
Carlin, Bradley P.
2009-01-01
Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors
From qualitative reasoning models to Bayesian-based learner modeling
Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.
2010-01-01
Assessing the knowledge of a student is a fundamental part of intelligent learning environments. We present a Bayesian network based approach to dealing with uncertainty when estimating a learner’s state of knowledge in the context of Qualitative Reasoning (QR). A proposal for a global architecture
Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani
We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...
Statistics: a Bayesian perspective
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Berry, Donald A
1996-01-01
...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...
Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.
2015-01-01
In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item
Bayesian Networks An Introduction
Koski, Timo
2009-01-01
Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni
Maeda, Shin-ichi
2014-01-01
Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.
Ghosh, Sujit K
2010-01-01
Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Henrik Bærbak; Hansen, Klaus Marius
2013-01-01
Architectural prototyping is a widely used practice, con- cerned with taking architectural decisions through experiments with light- weight implementations. However, many architectural decisions are only taken when systems are already (partially) implemented. This is prob- lematic in the context...... of architectural prototyping since experiments with full systems are complex and expensive and thus architectural learn- ing is hindered. In this paper, we propose a novel technique for harvest- ing architectural prototypes from existing systems, \\architectural slic- ing", based on dynamic program slicing. Given...... a system and a slicing criterion, architectural slicing produces an architectural prototype that contain the elements in the architecture that are dependent on the ele- ments in the slicing criterion. Furthermore, we present an initial design and implementation of an architectural slicer for Java....
Lauri, P E; Kelner, J J; Trottier, C; Costes, E
2010-04-01
Secondary growth is a main physiological sink. However, the hierarchy between the processes which compete with secondary growth is still a matter of debate, especially on fruit trees where fruit weight dramatically increases with time. It was hypothesized that tree architecture, here mediated by branch age, is likely to have a major effect on the dynamics of secondary growth within a growing season. Three variables were monitored on 6-year-old 'Golden Delicious' apple trees from flowering time to harvest: primary shoot growth, fruit volume, and cross-section area of branch portions of consecutive ages. Analyses were done through an ANOVA-type analysis in a linear mixed model framework. Secondary growth exhibited three consecutive phases characterized by unequal relative area increment over the season. The age of the branch had the strongest effect, with the highest and lowest relative area increment for the current-year shoots and the trunk, respectively. The growth phase had a lower effect, with a shift of secondary growth through the season from leafy shoots towards older branch portions. Eventually, fruit load had an effect on secondary growth mainly after primary growth had ceased. The results support the idea that relationships between production of photosynthates and allocation depend on both primary growth and branch architectural position. Fruit load mainly interacted with secondary growth later in the season, especially on old branch portions.
When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion
Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.
2017-01-01
Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.
Bayesian networks with examples in R
Scutari, Marco
2014-01-01
Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.
Bayesian methods in reliability
Sander, P.; Badoux, R.
1991-11-01
The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Rosman, Benjamin
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...
Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference
Davidson-Pilon, Cameron
2016-01-01
Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Mtshali, M
2010-01-01
Full Text Available In the development of mobile robotic systems, a robotic architecture plays a crucial role in interconnecting all the sub-systems and controlling the system. The design of robotic architectures for mobile autonomous robots is a challenging...
Bayesian logistic regression analysis
Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.
2012-01-01
In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an
Korattikara, A.; Rathod, V.; Murphy, K.; Welling, M.; Cortes, C.; Lawrence, N.D.; Lee, D.D.; Sugiyama, M.; Garnett, R.
2015-01-01
We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities p(y|x, D), e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple
Bayesian Geostatistical Design
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand
2006-01-01
locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...
Bayesian statistical inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bruno De Finetti
2017-04-01
Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael
2003-01-01
A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...
Bayesian Independent Component Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt
2007-01-01
In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...
Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.
Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.
2000-01-01
In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.
Erickson, Mary; Delahunt, Michael
2010-01-01
Most art teachers would agree that architecture is an important form of visual art, but they do not always include it in their curriculums. In this article, the authors share core ideas from "Architecture and Environment," a teaching resource that they developed out of a long-term interest in teaching architecture and their fascination with the…
Bayesian optimization for materials science
Packwood, Daniel
2017-01-01
This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...
Towards an Architectural Anthropology
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stender, Marie
2017-01-01
Architecture and anthropology have always had overlapping interests regarding issues such as spatial organisation, forms of human dwellings, and the interplay between social life and physical surroundings. Recent developments in both disciplines make it even more relevant to explore and evolve...... their overlaps and collaboration. However, there are also challenging differences to take into account regarding disciplinary traditions of, for example, communication, temporality, and normativity. This article explores the potentials and challenges of architectural anthropology as a distinct sub......-discipline and outlines its possible theoretical, methodological, and applied contributions. It is proposed that the ambition to understand people in a different way than they understand themselves is key in both disciplines, and that architectural anthropology is consequently not only relevant in studies of vernacular...
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N
2012-01-01
Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....
Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kárný, Miroslav
2014-01-01
Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.
2015-01-01
A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Andrews, Stephen A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-11-15
These are a set of slides about Bayesian hypothesis testing, where many hypotheses are tested. The conclusions are the following: The value of the Bayes factor obtained when using the median of the posterior marginal is almost the minimum value of the Bayes factor. The value of τ^{2} which minimizes the Bayes factor is a reasonable choice for this parameter. This allows a likelihood ratio to be computed with is the least favorable to H_{0}.
Introduction to Bayesian statistics
Koch, Karl-Rudolf
2007-01-01
This book presents Bayes' theorem, the estimation of unknown parameters, the determination of confidence regions and the derivation of tests of hypotheses for the unknown parameters. It does so in a simple manner that is easy to comprehend. The book compares traditional and Bayesian methods with the rules of probability presented in a logical way allowing an intuitive understanding of random variables and their probability distributions to be formed.
Bayesian theory and applications
Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A
2013-01-01
The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...
Bayesian Spatial Modelling with R-INLA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Finn Lindgren
2015-02-01
Full Text Available The principles behind the interface to continuous domain spatial models in the R- INLA software package for R are described. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA approach proposed by Rue, Martino, and Chopin (2009 is a computationally effective alternative to MCMC for Bayesian inference. INLA is designed for latent Gaussian models, a very wide and flexible class of models ranging from (generalized linear mixed to spatial and spatio-temporal models. Combined with the stochastic partial differential equation approach (SPDE, Lindgren, Rue, and Lindstrm 2011, one can accommodate all kinds of geographically referenced data, including areal and geostatistical ones, as well as spatial point process data. The implementation interface covers stationary spatial mod- els, non-stationary spatial models, and also spatio-temporal models, and is applicable in epidemiology, ecology, environmental risk assessment, as well as general geostatistics.
Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xuan Guo
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.
Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.
Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L
2004-09-01
ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.
2011-01-01
Introduction Osteoarthritis (OA) is a complex, multifactorial joint disease affecting both the cartilage and the subchondral bone. Animal models of OA aid in the understanding of the pathogenesis of OA and testing suitable drugs for OA treatment. In this study we characterized the temporal changes in the tibial subchondral bone architecture in a rat model of low-dose monosodium iodoacetate (MIA)-induced OA using in vivo micro-computed tomography (CT). Methods Male Wistar rats received a single intra-articular injection of low-dose MIA (0.2 mg) in the right knee joint and sterile saline in the left knee joint. The animals were scanned in vivo by micro-CT at two, six, and ten weeks post-injection, analogous to early, intermediate, and advanced stages of OA, to assess architectural changes in the tibial subchondral bone. The articular cartilage changes in the tibiae were assessed macroscopically and histologically at ten weeks post-injection. Results Interestingly, tibiae of the MIA-injected knees showed significant bone loss at two weeks, followed by increased trabecular thickness and separation at six and ten weeks. The trabecular number was decreased at all time points compared to control tibiae. The tibial subchondral plate thickness of the MIA-injected knee was increased at two and six weeks and the plate porosity was increased at all time points compared to control. At ten weeks, histology revealed loss of proteoglycans, chondrocyte necrosis, chondrocyte clusters, cartilage fibrillation, and delamination in the MIA-injected tibiae, whereas the control tibiae showed no changes. Micro-CT images and histology showed the presence of subchondral bone sclerosis, cysts, and osteophytes. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that the low-dose MIA rat model closely mimics the pathological features of progressive human OA. The low-dose MIA rat model is therefore suitable to study the effect of therapeutic drugs on cartilage and bone in a non-trauma model of OA. In vivo
Merle, J.
2012-01-01
This dissertation addresses the reductive reading of Georges Bataille's work done within the field of architectural criticism and theory which tends to set aside the fundamental ‘broken’ totality of Bataille's oeuvre and also to narrowly interpret it as a mere critique of architectural form,
Avgeriou, Paris; Stal, Michael; Hilliard, Rich
2013-01-01
Software architecture is the foundation of software system development, encompassing a system's architects' and stakeholders' strategic decisions. A special issue of IEEE Software is intended to raise awareness of architecture sustainability issues and increase interest and work in the area. The
2012-01-01
A memory architecture is presented. The memory architecture comprises a first memory and a second memory. The first memory has at least a bank with a first width addressable by a single address. The second memory has a plurality of banks of a second width, said banks being addressable by components
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kiib, Hans
2010-01-01
a functional framework for these concepts, but tries increasingly to endow the main idea of the cultural project with a spatially aesthetic expression - a shift towards “experience architecture.” A great number of these projects typically recycle and reinterpret narratives related to historical buildings......In this essay, I focus on the combination of programs and the architecture of cultural projects that have emerged within the last few years. These projects are characterized as “hybrid cultural projects,” because they intend to combine experience with entertainment, play, and learning. This essay...... and architectural heritage; another group tries to embed new performative technologies in expressive architectural representation. Finally, this essay provides a theoretical framework for the analysis of the political rationales of these projects and for the architectural representation bridges the gap between...
Bayesian nonparametric data analysis
Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim
2015-01-01
This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.
Congdon, Peter
2014-01-01
This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU
Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael
2009-01-01
Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....
Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates
Caudle, Kyle
2010-01-01
In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…
Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)
CERN. Geneva
2018-01-01
framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.
Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)
CERN. Geneva
2018-01-01
framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.
The Bayesian Covariance Lasso.
Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G
2013-04-01
Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size ( n ) is less than the dimension ( d ), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data.
Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis.
Huang, Jing; Yuan, Ying
2017-12-01
Most existing methods for mediation analysis assume that mediation is a stationary, time-invariant process, which overlooks the inherently dynamic nature of many human psychological processes and behavioral activities. In this article, we consider mediation as a dynamic process that continuously changes over time. We propose Bayesian multilevel time-varying coefficient models to describe and estimate such dynamic mediation effects. By taking the nonparametric penalized spline approach, the proposed method is flexible and able to accommodate any shape of the relationship between time and mediation effects. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well and faithfully reflects the true nature of the mediation process. By modeling mediation effect nonparametrically as a continuous function of time, our method provides a valuable tool to help researchers obtain a more complete understanding of the dynamic nature of the mediation process underlying psychological and behavioral phenomena. We also briefly discuss an alternative approach of using dynamic autoregressive mediation model to estimate the dynamic mediation effect. The computer code is provided to implement the proposed Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Approximate Bayesian computation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mikael Sunnåker
Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.
Bayesian inference with ecological applications
Link, William A
2009-01-01
This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...
Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Asad Ali
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.
Adaptive Naive Bayesian Anti-Spam Engine
Gajewski, W P
2006-01-01
The problem of spam has been seriously troubling the Internet community during the last few years and currently reached an alarming scale. Observations made at CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research located in Geneva, Switzerland) show that spam mails can constitute up to 75% of daily SMTP traffic. A naïve Bayesian classifier based on a Bag of Words representation of an email is widely used to stop this unwanted flood as it combines good performance with simplicity of the training and classification processes. However, facing the constantly changing patterns of spam, it is necessary to assure online adaptability of the classifier. This work proposes combining such a classifier with another NBC (naïve Bayesian classifier) based on pairs of adjacent words. Only the latter will be retrained with examples of spam reported by users. Tests are performed on considerable sets of mails both from public spam archives and CERN mailboxes. They suggest that this architecture can increase spam recall without af...
Bayesian nonparametric adaptive control using Gaussian processes.
Chowdhary, Girish; Kingravi, Hassan A; How, Jonathan P; Vela, Patricio A
2015-03-01
Most current model reference adaptive control (MRAC) methods rely on parametric adaptive elements, in which the number of parameters of the adaptive element are fixed a priori, often through expert judgment. An example of such an adaptive element is radial basis function networks (RBFNs), with RBF centers preallocated based on the expected operating domain. If the system operates outside of the expected operating domain, this adaptive element can become noneffective in capturing and canceling the uncertainty, thus rendering the adaptive controller only semiglobal in nature. This paper investigates a Gaussian process-based Bayesian MRAC architecture (GP-MRAC), which leverages the power and flexibility of GP Bayesian nonparametric models of uncertainty. The GP-MRAC does not require the centers to be preallocated, can inherently handle measurement noise, and enables MRAC to handle a broader set of uncertainties, including those that are defined as distributions over functions. We use stochastic stability arguments to show that GP-MRAC guarantees good closed-loop performance with no prior domain knowledge of the uncertainty. Online implementable GP inference methods are compared in numerical simulations against RBFN-MRAC with preallocated centers and are shown to provide better tracking and improved long-term learning.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
2005-01-01
The booklet offers an overall introduction to the Institute of Architectural Technology and its projects and activities, and an invitation to the reader to contact the institute or the individual researcher for further information. The research, which takes place at the Institute of Architectural...... Technology at the Roayl Danish Academy of Fine Arts, School of Architecture, reflects a spread between strategic, goal-oriented pilot projects, commissioned by a ministry, a fund or a private company, and on the other hand projects which originate from strong personal interests and enthusiasm of individual...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Poletto, Marco; Pasquero, Claudia
-up or tactical design, behavioural space and the boundary of the natural and the artificial realms within the city and architecture. A new kind of "real-time world-city" is illustrated in the form of an operational design manual for the assemblage of proto-architectures, the incubation of proto-gardens...... and the coding of proto-interfaces. These prototypes of machinic architecture materialize as synthetic hybrids embedded with biological life (proto-gardens), computational power, behavioural responsiveness (cyber-gardens), spatial articulation (coMachines and fibrous structures), remote sensing (FUNclouds...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Toft, Tanya Søndergaard
2015-01-01
The article proposes the urban digital gallery as an opportunity to explore the relationship between ‘human’ and ‘technology,’ through the programming of media architecture. It takes a curatorial perspective when proposing an ontological shift from considering media facades as visual spectacles...... agency and a sense of being by way of dematerializing architecture. This is achieved by way of programming the symbolic to provide new emotional realizations and situations of enlightenment in the public audience. This reflects a greater potential to humanize the digital in media architecture....
Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.
2013-01-01
Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tvedebrink, Tenna Doktor Olsen
environments and a knowledge gap therefore exists in present hospital designs. Consequently, the purpose of this thesis has been to investigate if any research-based knowledge exist supporting the hypothesis that the interior architectural qualities of eating environments influence patient food intake, health...... and well-being, as well as outline a set of basic design principles ‘predicting’ the future interior architectural qualities of patient eating environments. Methodologically the thesis is based on an explorative study employing an abductive approach and hermeneutic-interpretative strategy utilizing tactics...... and food intake, as well as a series of references exist linking the interior architectural qualities of healthcare environments with the health and wellbeing of patients. On the basis of these findings, the thesis presents the concept of Architectural Theatricality as well as a set of design principles...
Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes.
Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B
2011-03-01
We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rajabalinejad, M.
2010-01-01
To reduce cost of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for time-consuming processes, Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) is introduced in this paper. The BMC method reduces number of realizations in MC according to the desired accuracy level. BMC also provides a possibility of considering more priors. In other words, different priors can be integrated into one model by using BMC to further reduce cost of simulations. This study suggests speeding up the simulation process by considering the logical dependence of neighboring points as prior information. This information is used in the BMC method to produce a predictive tool through the simulation process. The general methodology and algorithm of BMC method are presented in this paper. The BMC method is applied to the simplified break water model as well as the finite element model of 17th Street Canal in New Orleans, and the results are compared with the MC and Dynamic Bounds methods.
Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.
Dunson, David B
2009-04-01
In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.
Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology
Link, William A.
2011-01-01
Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)
Architectural freedom and industrialized architecture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vestergaard, Inge
2012-01-01
to explain that architecture can be thought as a complex and diverse design through customization, telling exactly the revitalized storey about the change to a contemporary sustainable and better performing expression in direct relation to the given context. Through the last couple of years we have...... proportions, to organize the process on site choosing either one room wall components or several rooms wall components – either horizontally or vertically. Combined with the seamless joint the playing with these possibilities the new industrialized architecture can deliver variations in choice of solutions...... for retrofit design. If we add the question of the installations e.g. ventilation to this systematic thinking of building technique we get a diverse and functional architecture, thereby creating a new and clearer story telling about new and smart system based thinking behind architectural expression....
Architectural freedom and industrialized architecture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vestergaard, Inge
2012-01-01
to explain that architecture can be thought as a complex and diverse design through customization, telling exactly the revitalized storey about the change to a contemporary sustainable and better performing expression in direct relation to the given context. Through the last couple of years we have...... expression in the specific housing area. It is the aim of this article to expand the different design strategies which architects can use – to give the individual project attitudes and designs with architectural quality. Through the customized component production it is possible to choose different...... for retrofit design. If we add the question of the installations e.g. ventilation to this systematic thinking of building technique we get a diverse and functional architecture, thereby creating a new and clearer story telling about new and smart system based thinking behind architectural expression....
Architectural freedom and industrialised architecture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vestergaard, Inge
2012-01-01
Architectural freedom and industrialized architecture. Inge Vestergaard, Associate Professor, Cand. Arch. Aarhus School of Architecture, Denmark Noerreport 20, 8000 Aarhus C Telephone +45 89 36 0000 E-mai l inge.vestergaard@aarch.dk Based on the repetitive architecture from the "building boom" 1960...... customization, telling exactly the revitalized storey about the change to a contemporary sustainable and better performed expression in direct relation to the given context. Through the last couple of years we have in Denmark been focusing a more sustainable and low energy building technique, which also include...... to the building physic problems a new industrialized period has started based on light weight elements basically made of wooden structures, faced with different suitable materials meant for individual expression for the specific housing area. It is the purpose of this article to widen up the different design...
Saranummi, Niilo
2005-01-01
The PICNIC architecture aims at supporting inter-enterprise integration and the facilitation of collaboration between healthcare organisations. The concept of a Regional Health Economy (RHE) is introduced to illustrate the varying nature of inter-enterprise collaboration between healthcare organisations collaborating in providing health services to citizens and patients in a regional setting. The PICNIC architecture comprises a number of PICNIC IT Services, the interfaces between them and presents a way to assemble these into a functioning Regional Health Care Network meeting the needs and concerns of its stakeholders. The PICNIC architecture is presented through a number of views relevant to different stakeholder groups. The stakeholders of the first view are national and regional health authorities and policy makers. The view describes how the architecture enables the implementation of national and regional health policies, strategies and organisational structures. The stakeholders of the second view, the service viewpoint, are the care providers, health professionals, patients and citizens. The view describes how the architecture supports and enables regional care delivery and process management including continuity of care (shared care) and citizen-centred health services. The stakeholders of the third view, the engineering view, are those that design, build and implement the RHCN. The view comprises four sub views: software engineering, IT services engineering, security and data. The proposed architecture is founded into the main stream of how distributed computing environments are evolving. The architecture is realised using the web services approach. A number of well established technology platforms and generic standards exist that can be used to implement the software components. The software components that are specified in PICNIC are implemented in Open Source.
Architectural freedom and industrialised architecture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vestergaard, Inge
2012-01-01
to the building physic problems a new industrialized period has started based on light weight elements basically made of wooden structures, faced with different suitable materials meant for individual expression for the specific housing area. It is the purpose of this article to widen up the different design...... to this systematic thinking of the building technique we get a diverse and functional architecture. Creating a new and clearer story telling about new and smart system based thinking behind the architectural expression....
What is Islamic architecture anyway?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nasser Rabbat
2012-06-01
Full Text Available This article offers a critical review of scholarship on Islamic architecture in the last two centuries. It raises methodological and historiographical questions about the field’s formation, development, and historical and theoretical contours through a discussion of the positions of its main figures. One question treated here is that of how to study a culturally defined architectural tradition like Islamic architecture without reducing it to essential and timeless categories. Another question is that of how one is to critique the dominant Western paradigm without turning away from its comparative perspective. But the most important goal of the article is to reclaim the assumed temporal boundaries of Islamic architecture – Late Antiquity as a predecessor and modernism as a successor – as constitutive forces in its evolution and definition.
Pottmann, Helmut; Eigensatz, Michael; Vaxman, Amir; Wallner, Johannes
2014-01-01
Around 2005 it became apparent in the geometry processing community that freeform architecture contains many problems of a geometric nature to be solved, and many opportunities for optimization which however require geometric understanding. This area of research, which has been called architectural geometry, meanwhile contains a great wealth of individual contributions which are relevant in various fields. For mathematicians, the relation to discrete differential geometry is significant, in particular the integrable system viewpoint. Besides, new application contexts have become available for quite some old-established concepts. Regarding graphics and geometry processing, architectural geometry yields interesting new questions but also new objects, e.g. replacing meshes by other combinatorial arrangements. Numerical optimization plays a major role but in itself would be powerless without geometric understanding. Summing up, architectural geometry has become a rewarding field of study. We here survey the main directions which have been pursued, we show real projects where geometric considerations have played a role, and we outline open problems which we think are significant for the future development of both theory and practice of architectural geometry.
Pottmann, Helmut
2014-11-26
Around 2005 it became apparent in the geometry processing community that freeform architecture contains many problems of a geometric nature to be solved, and many opportunities for optimization which however require geometric understanding. This area of research, which has been called architectural geometry, meanwhile contains a great wealth of individual contributions which are relevant in various fields. For mathematicians, the relation to discrete differential geometry is significant, in particular the integrable system viewpoint. Besides, new application contexts have become available for quite some old-established concepts. Regarding graphics and geometry processing, architectural geometry yields interesting new questions but also new objects, e.g. replacing meshes by other combinatorial arrangements. Numerical optimization plays a major role but in itself would be powerless without geometric understanding. Summing up, architectural geometry has become a rewarding field of study. We here survey the main directions which have been pursued, we show real projects where geometric considerations have played a role, and we outline open problems which we think are significant for the future development of both theory and practice of architectural geometry.
Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications
Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia
2015-01-01
Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on
GPU implementation of Bayesian neural network construction for data-intensive applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perry, Michelle; Meyer-Baese, Anke; Prosper, Harrison B
2014-01-01
We describe a graphical processing unit (GPU) implementation of the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo (HMC) method for training Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN). Our implementation uses NVIDIA's parallel computing architecture, CUDA. We briefly review BNNs and the HMC method and we describe our implementations and give preliminary results.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Reeh, Henrik
2018-01-01
in a scholarly institution (element #3), as well as the certified PhD scholar (element #4) and the architectural profession, notably its labour market (element #5). This first layer outlines the contemporary context which allows architectural research to take place in a dynamic relationship to doctoral education...... a human and institutional development going on since around 1990 when the present PhD institution was first implemented in Denmark. To be sure, the model is centred around the PhD dissertation (element #1). But it involves four more components: the PhD candidate (element #2), his or her supervisor...... and interrelated fields in which history, place, and sound come to emphasize architecture’s relational qualities rather than the apparent three-dimensional solidity of constructed space. A third layer of relational architecture is at stake in the professional experiences after the defence of the authors...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stender, Marie
Architecture and anthropology have always had a common focus on dwelling, housing, urban life and spatial organisation. Current developments in both disciplines make it even more relevant to explore their boundaries and overlaps. Architects are inspired by anthropological insights and methods......, while recent material and spatial turns in anthropology have also brought an increasing interest in design, architecture and the built environment. Understanding the relationship between the social and the physical is at the heart of both disciplines, and they can obviously benefit from further...... collaboration: How can qualitative anthropological approaches contribute to contemporary architecture? And just as importantly: What can anthropologists learn from architects’ understanding of spatial and material surroundings? Recent theoretical developments in anthropology stress the role of materials...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Rikke Premer
engineering is addresses from two perspectives – as an educational response and an occupational constellation. Architecture and engineering are two of the traditional design professions and they frequently meet in the occupational setting, but at educational institutions they remain largely estranged....... The paper builds on a multi-sited study of an architectural engineering program at the Technical University of Denmark and an architectural engineering team within an international engineering consultancy based on Denmark. They are both responding to new tendencies within the building industry where...... the role of engineers and architects increasingly overlap during the design process, but their approaches reflect different perceptions of the consequences. The paper discusses some of the challenges that design education, not only within engineering, is facing today: young designers must be equipped...
Bayesian image restoration, using configurations
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis
2006-01-01
In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø
Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Riis, Søren
2013-01-01
I would like to thank Prof. Stephen Read (2011) and Prof. Andrew Benjamin (2011) for both giving inspiring and elaborate comments on my article “Dwelling in-between walls: the architectural surround”. As I will try to demonstrate below, their two different responses not only supplement my article...... focuses on how the absence of an initial distinction might threaten the endeavour of my paper. In my reply to Read and Benjamin, I will discuss their suggestions and arguments, while at the same time hopefully clarifying the postphenomenological approach to architecture....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heimdal, Elisabeth Jacobsen
2010-01-01
Textiles can be used as building skins, adding new aesthetic and functional qualities to architecture. Just like we as humans can put on a coat, buildings can also get dressed. Depending on our mood, or on the weather, we can change coat, and so can the building. But the idea of using textiles...
Nonlinear Bayesian filtering and learning: a neuronal dynamics for perception.
Kutschireiter, Anna; Surace, Simone Carlo; Sprekeler, Henning; Pfister, Jean-Pascal
2017-08-18
The robust estimation of dynamical hidden features, such as the position of prey, based on sensory inputs is one of the hallmarks of perception. This dynamical estimation can be rigorously formulated by nonlinear Bayesian filtering theory. Recent experimental and behavioral studies have shown that animals' performance in many tasks is consistent with such a Bayesian statistical interpretation. However, it is presently unclear how a nonlinear Bayesian filter can be efficiently implemented in a network of neurons that satisfies some minimum constraints of biological plausibility. Here, we propose the Neural Particle Filter (NPF), a sampling-based nonlinear Bayesian filter, which does not rely on importance weights. We show that this filter can be interpreted as the neuronal dynamics of a recurrently connected rate-based neural network receiving feed-forward input from sensory neurons. Further, it captures properties of temporal and multi-sensory integration that are crucial for perception, and it allows for online parameter learning with a maximum likelihood approach. The NPF holds the promise to avoid the 'curse of dimensionality', and we demonstrate numerically its capability to outperform weighted particle filters in higher dimensions and when the number of particles is limited.
From green architecture to architectural green
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Earon, Ofri
2011-01-01
that describes the architectural exclusivity of this particular architecture genre. The adjective green expresses architectural qualities differentiating green architecture from none-green architecture. Currently, adding trees and vegetation to the building’s facade is the main architectural characteristics...... they have overshadowed the architectural potential of green architecture. The paper questions how a green space should perform, look like and function. Two examples are chosen to demonstrate thorough integrations between green and space. The examples are public buildings categorized as pavilions. One......The paper investigates the topic of green architecture from an architectural point of view and not an energy point of view. The purpose of the paper is to establish a debate about the architectural language and spatial characteristics of green architecture. In this light, green becomes an adjective...
Bayesian seismic AVO inversion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Buland, Arild
2002-07-01
A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rogério Ruscitto do Prado
2009-10-01
Full Text Available O Estado de São Paulo, por compreender aproximadamente 40% dos casos de aids notificados no Brasil, oferece uma situação propícia para análise espaço-temporal, visando melhor compreensão da disseminação do HIV/aids. Utilizando os casos de aids notificados ao Ministério da Saúde nos anos de 1990 a 2004 para pessoas com idade igual ou superior a 15 anos, tendo como fonte de informação o Sistema de Informação de Agravos e Notificação, Ministério da Saúde, foram estimados os riscos relativos de aids segundo sexo para períodos de 3 anos utilizando modelos bayesianos completos. Os modelos utilizados se mostraram adequados para explicar o processo de disseminação da aids no Estado de São Paulo e evidenciam os processos de feminização e interiorização da doença, além de sugerir que os municípios atualmente mais atingidos se encontram em regiões de pólos de crescimento econômico e possuem população inferior a 50.000 habitantes.The State of São Paulo accounts for approximately 40% of the AIDS cases notified in Brazil and provides a suitable opportunity for space-time analysis aimed at better understanding of the dissemination of HIV/AIDS. Using the AIDS cases notified to the Ministry of Health between 1990 and 2004, among individuals aged 15 years or over, and the Ministry of Health's information system for disease notification (Sistema de Informação de Agravos e Notificação, SINAN as the information source, the relative risks of AIDS over three-year periods were estimated using full Bayesian models, for each gender. The models used were shown to be adequate for explaining the process of AIDS dissemination in the State of São Paulo and demonstrated the growth among females and in small-sized municipalities. They also suggested that the municipalities currently most affected are in regions of economic growth and have populations of less than 50,000 inhabitants.
Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...
Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value
Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.
Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca
2018-01-01
This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.
Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.
Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan
2018-02-01
Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Svenningsen Kajita, Heidi
2009-01-01
Om MUF architecture samt interview med Liza Fior og Katherine Clarke, partnere i muf architecture/art......Om MUF architecture samt interview med Liza Fior og Katherine Clarke, partnere i muf architecture/art...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bang, Jacob Sebastian
2018-01-01
I have created a large collection of plaster models: a collection of Obstructions, errors and opportunities that may develop into architecture. The models are fragments of different complex shapes as well as more simple circular models with different profiling and diameters. In this contect I have....... I try to invent the ways of drawing the models - that decode and unfold them into architectural fragments- into future buildings or constructions in the landscape. [1] Luigi Moretti: Italian architect, 1907 - 1973 [2] Man Ray: American artist, 1890 - 1976. in 2015, I saw the wonderful exhibition...... "Man Ray - Human Equations" at the Glyptotek in Copenhagen, organized by the Philips Collection in Washington D.C. and the Israel Museum in Jerusalem (in 2013). See also: "Man Ray - Human Equations" catalogue published by Hatje Cantz Verlag, Germany, 2014....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tine Kurent
1985-12-01
Full Text Available The old Greek word "kosmos" means not only "cosmos", but also "the beautiful order", "the way of building", "building", "scenography", "mankind", and, in the time of the New Testament, also "pagans". The word "arhitekton", meaning first the "master of theatrical scenography", acquired the meaning of "builder", when the words "kosmos" and ~kosmetes" became pejorative. The fear that architecture was not considered one of the arts before Renaissance, since none of the Muses supervised the art of building, results from the misunderstanding of the word "kosmos". Urania was the Goddes of the activity implied in the verb "kosmein", meaning "to put in the beautiful order" - everything, from the universe to the man-made space, i. e. the architecture.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
2013-01-01
Textile Spaces presents different approaches to using textile as a spatial definer and artistic medium. The publication collages images and text, art and architecture, science, philosophy and literature, process and product, past, present and future. It forms an insight into soft materials' funct......' functional and poetic potentials, linking the disciplines through fragments that aim to inspire a further look into the artists' and architects' practices, while simultaneously framing these textile visions in a wider context.......Textile Spaces presents different approaches to using textile as a spatial definer and artistic medium. The publication collages images and text, art and architecture, science, philosophy and literature, process and product, past, present and future. It forms an insight into soft materials...
Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper
2018-01-01
An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....
Probability biases as Bayesian inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andre; C. R. Martins
2006-11-01
Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.
Bayesian analysis of CCDM models
Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.
2017-09-01
Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.
Bayesian analysis of CCDM models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)
2017-09-01
Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.
Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data
Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian
2009-01-01
Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly
Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Margaritis, Dimitris
1999-01-01
.... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...
Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?
Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio
2008-01-01
The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.
Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS
Ntzoufras, Ioannis
2009-01-01
A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...
Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio
2009-01-01
Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.
3D Bayesian contextual classifiers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Rasmus
2000-01-01
We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....
Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Belinda Hernández
2015-12-01
In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.
Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction
Stein, A.
2004-01-01
This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision
Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner
2003-01-01
been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....
A Bayesian framework for risk perception
van Erp, H.R.N.
2017-01-01
We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy
Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.
Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja
2016-07-19
Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using
Development of a cyber security risk model using Bayesian networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shin, Jinsoo; Son, Hanseong; Khalil ur, Rahman; Heo, Gyunyoung
2015-01-01
Cyber security is an emerging safety issue in the nuclear industry, especially in the instrumentation and control (I and C) field. To address the cyber security issue systematically, a model that can be used for cyber security evaluation is required. In this work, a cyber security risk model based on a Bayesian network is suggested for evaluating cyber security for nuclear facilities in an integrated manner. The suggested model enables the evaluation of both the procedural and technical aspects of cyber security, which are related to compliance with regulatory guides and system architectures, respectively. The activity-quality analysis model was developed to evaluate how well people and/or organizations comply with the regulatory guidance associated with cyber security. The architecture analysis model was created to evaluate vulnerabilities and mitigation measures with respect to their effect on cyber security. The two models are integrated into a single model, which is called the cyber security risk model, so that cyber security can be evaluated from procedural and technical viewpoints at the same time. The model was applied to evaluate the cyber security risk of the reactor protection system (RPS) of a research reactor and to demonstrate its usefulness and feasibility. - Highlights: • We developed the cyber security risk model can be find the weak point of cyber security integrated two cyber analysis models by using Bayesian Network. • One is the activity-quality model signifies how people and/or organization comply with the cyber security regulatory guide. • Other is the architecture model represents the probability of cyber-attack on RPS architecture. • The cyber security risk model can provide evidence that is able to determine the key element for cyber security for RPS of a research reactor
Connecting Architecture and Implementation
Buchgeher, Georg; Weinreich, Rainer
Software architectures are still typically defined and described independently from implementation. To avoid architectural erosion and drift, architectural representation needs to be continuously updated and synchronized with system implementation. Existing approaches for architecture representation like informal architecture documentation, UML diagrams, and Architecture Description Languages (ADLs) provide only limited support for connecting architecture descriptions and implementations. Architecture management tools like Lattix, SonarJ, and Sotoarc and UML-tools tackle this problem by extracting architecture information directly from code. This approach works for low-level architectural abstractions like classes and interfaces in object-oriented systems but fails to support architectural abstractions not found in programming languages. In this paper we present an approach for linking and continuously synchronizing a formalized architecture representation to an implementation. The approach is a synthesis of functionality provided by code-centric architecture management and UML tools and higher-level architecture analysis approaches like ADLs.
Saramäki, Jari
2013-01-01
The concept of temporal networks is an extension of complex networks as a modeling framework to include information on when interactions between nodes happen. Many studies of the last decade examine how the static network structure affect dynamic systems on the network. In this traditional approach the temporal aspects are pre-encoded in the dynamic system model. Temporal-network methods, on the other hand, lift the temporal information from the level of system dynamics to the mathematical representation of the contact network itself. This framework becomes particularly useful for cases where there is a lot of structure and heterogeneity both in the timings of interaction events and the network topology. The advantage compared to common static network approaches is the ability to design more accurate models in order to explain and predict large-scale dynamic phenomena (such as, e.g., epidemic outbreaks and other spreading phenomena). On the other hand, temporal network methods are mathematically and concept...
Bayesian NL interpretation and learning
Zeevat, H.
2011-01-01
Everyday natural language communication is normally successful, even though contemporary computational linguistics has shown that NL is characterised by very high degree of ambiguity and the results of stochastic methods are not good enough to explain the high success rate. Bayesian natural language
Bayesian image restoration, using configurations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis
configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...
Bayesian image restoration, using configurations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda
2006-01-01
configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for the salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...
Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs
Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)
2003-01-01
textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...
Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
2002-01-01
of condition indicators introduced by Benjamin and Cornell (1970) a Bayesian approach to quality control is formulated. The formulation is then extended to the case where the quality control is based on sampling of indirect information about the condition of the components, i.e. condition indicators...
Bayesian Classification of Image Structures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert
2009-01-01
In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic dimensi...
Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abad-Grau María M
2007-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.
3-D contextual Bayesian classifiers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Rasmus
In this paper we will consider extensions of a series of Bayesian 2-D contextual classification pocedures proposed by Owen (1984) Hjort & Mohn (1984) and Welch & Salter (1971) and Haslett (1985) to 3 spatial dimensions. It is evident that compared to classical pixelwise classification further...
An architecture for integration of multidisciplinary models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Holst, Niels
2014-01-01
Integrating multidisciplinary models requires linking models: that may operate at different temporal and spatial scales; developed using different methodologies, tools and techniques; different levels of complexity; calibrated for different ranges of inputs and outputs, etc. On the other hand......, Enterprise Application Integration, and Integration Design Patterns. We developed an architecture of a multidisciplinary model integration framework that brings these three aspects of integration together. Service-oriented-based platform independent architecture that enables to establish loosely coupled...
Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Caspar Mathias Goeke
2016-10-01
Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in
Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.
1998-12-01
Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)
Bayesian analysis of rare events
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang
2016-06-01
In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.
BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Drummond Alexei J
2007-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented. Results BEAST version 1.4.6 consists of 81000 lines of Java source code, 779 classes and 81 packages. It provides models for DNA and protein sequence evolution, highly parametric coalescent analysis, relaxed clock phylogenetics, non-contemporaneous sequence data, statistical alignment and a wide range of options for prior distributions. BEAST source code is object-oriented, modular in design and freely available at http://beast-mcmc.googlecode.com/ under the GNU LGPL license. Conclusion BEAST is a powerful and flexible evolutionary analysis package for molecular sequence variation. It also provides a resource for the further development of new models and statistical methods of evolutionary analysis.
Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method
Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.
2014-12-01
Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Steinø, Nicolai
2018-01-01
In a time of computer aided design, computer graphics and parametric design tools, the art of architectural drawing is in a state of neglect. But design and drawing are inseparably linked in ways which often go unnoticed. Essentially, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to conceive of a design...... is that computers can represent graphic ideas both faster and better than most medium-skilled draftsmen, drawing in design is not only about representing final designs. In fact, several steps involving the capacity to draw lie before the representation of a final design. Not only is drawing skills an important...... prerequisite for learning about the nature of existing objects and spaces, and thus to build a vocabulary of design. It is also a prerequisite for both reflecting and communicating about design ideas. In this paper, a taxonomy of notation, reflection, communication and presentation drawing is presented...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tvedebrink, Tenna Doktor Olsen; Fisker, Anna Marie; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning
2013-01-01
In the attempt to improve patient treatment and recovery, researchers focus on applying concepts of hospitality to hospitals. Often these concepts are dominated by hotel-metaphors focusing on host–guest relationships or concierge services. Motivated by a project trying to improve patient treatment...... is known for his writings on theatricality, understood as a holistic design approach emphasizing the contextual, cultural, ritual and social meanings rooted in architecture. Relative hereto, the International Food Design Society recently argued, in a similar holistic manner, that the methodology used...... to provide an aesthetic eating experience includes knowledge on both food and design. Based on a hermeneutic reading of Semper’s theory, our thesis is that this holistic design approach is important when debating concepts of hospitality in hospitals. We use this approach to argue for how ‘food design...
Crease, Robert P.
2008-04-01
There are few more dramatic illustrations of the vicissitudes of laboratory architecturethan the contrast between Building 20 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and its replacement, the Ray and Maria Stata Center. Building 20 was built hurriedly in 1943 as temporary housing for MIT's famous Rad Lab, the site of wartime radar research, and it remained a productive laboratory space for over half a century. A decade ago it was demolished to make way for the Stata Center, an architecturally striking building designed by Frank Gehry to house MIT's computer science and artificial intelligence labs (above). But in 2004 - just two years after the Stata Center officially opened - the building was criticized for being unsuitable for research and became the subject of still ongoing lawsuits alleging design and construction failures.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tryggestad, Kjell; Justesen, Lise; Mouritsen, Jan
2013-01-01
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore how animals can become stakeholders in interaction with project management technologies and what happens with project temporalities when new and surprising stakeholders become part of a project and a recognized matter of concern to be taken...... into account. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on a qualitative case study of a project in the building industry. The authors use actor-network theory (ANT) to analyze the emergence of animal stakeholders, stakes and temporalities. Findings – The study shows how project temporalities can...... multiply in interaction with project management technologies and how conventional linear conceptions of project time may be contested with the emergence of new non-human stakeholders and temporalities. Research limitations/implications – The study draws on ANT to show how animals can become stakeholders...
Remotely Sensed Monitoring of Small Reservoir Dynamics: A Bayesian Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dirk Eilander
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Multipurpose small reservoirs are important for livelihoods in rural semi-arid regions. To manage and plan these reservoirs and to assess their hydrological impact at a river basin scale, it is important to monitor their water storage dynamics. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for monitoring small reservoirs with radar satellite images. The newly developed growing Bayesian classifier has a high degree of automation, can readily be extended with auxiliary information and reduces the confusion error to the land-water boundary pixels. A case study has been performed in the Upper East Region of Ghana, based on Radarsat-2 data from November 2012 until April 2013. Results show that the growing Bayesian classifier can deal with the spatial and temporal variability in synthetic aperture radar (SAR backscatter intensities from small reservoirs. Due to its ability to incorporate auxiliary information, the algorithm is able to delineate open water from SAR imagery with a low land-water contrast in the case of wind-induced Bragg scattering or limited vegetation on the land surrounding a small reservoir.
Bayesian geostatistical modeling of leishmaniasis incidence in Brazil.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dimitrios-Alexios Karagiannis-Voules
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is endemic in 98 countries with an estimated 350 million people at risk and approximately 2 million cases annually. Brazil is one of the most severely affected countries. METHODOLOGY: We applied Bayesian geostatistical negative binomial models to analyze reported incidence data of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil covering a 10-year period (2001-2010. Particular emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal patterns. The models were fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform fast approximate Bayesian inference. Bayesian variable selection was employed to determine the most important climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic predictors of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For both types of leishmaniasis, precipitation and socioeconomic proxies were identified as important risk factors. The predicted number of cases in 2010 were 30,189 (standard deviation [SD]: 7,676 for cutaneous leishmaniasis and 4,889 (SD: 288 for visceral leishmaniasis. Our risk maps predicted the highest numbers of infected people in the states of Minas Gerais and Pará for visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our spatially explicit, high-resolution incidence maps identified priority areas where leishmaniasis control efforts should be targeted with the ultimate goal to reduce disease incidence.
Bayesian estimation methods in metrology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cox, M.G.; Forbes, A.B.; Harris, P.M.
2004-01-01
In metrology -- the science of measurement -- a measurement result must be accompanied by a statement of its associated uncertainty. The degree of validity of a measurement result is determined by the validity of the uncertainty statement. In recognition of the importance of uncertainty evaluation, the International Standardization Organization in 1995 published the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement and the Guide has been widely adopted. The validity of uncertainty statements is tested in interlaboratory comparisons in which an artefact is measured by a number of laboratories and their measurement results compared. Since the introduction of the Mutual Recognition Arrangement, key comparisons are being undertaken to determine the degree of equivalence of laboratories for particular measurement tasks. In this paper, we discuss the possible development of the Guide to reflect Bayesian approaches and the evaluation of key comparison data using Bayesian estimation methods
Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Prosper Harrison B.
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.
Bayesian inference on proportional elections.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello
Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.
BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir
2011-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.
Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network
Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.
2001-01-01
With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores
Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai
2015-01-01
are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multiview data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....
SUSTAINABLE ARCHITECTURE : WHAT ARCHITECTURE STUDENTS THINK
SATWIKO, PRASASTO
2013-01-01
Sustainable architecture has become a hot issue lately as the impacts of climate change become more intense. Architecture educations have responded by integrating knowledge of sustainable design in their curriculum. However, in the real life, new buildings keep coming with designs that completely ignore sustainable principles. This paper discusses the results of two national competitions on sustainable architecture targeted for architecture students (conducted in 2012 and 2013). The results a...
Efficient Bayesian inference for ARFIMA processes
Graves, T.; Gramacy, R. B.; Franzke, C. L. E.; Watkins, N. W.
2015-03-01
Many geophysical quantities, like atmospheric temperature, water levels in rivers, and wind speeds, have shown evidence of long-range dependence (LRD). LRD means that these quantities experience non-trivial temporal memory, which potentially enhances their predictability, but also hampers the detection of externally forced trends. Thus, it is important to reliably identify whether or not a system exhibits LRD. In this paper we present a modern and systematic approach to the inference of LRD. Rather than Mandelbrot's fractional Gaussian noise, we use the more flexible Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model which is widely used in time series analysis, and of increasing interest in climate science. Unlike most previous work on the inference of LRD, which is frequentist in nature, we provide a systematic treatment of Bayesian inference. In particular, we provide a new approximate likelihood for efficient parameter inference, and show how nuisance parameters (e.g. short memory effects) can be integrated over in order to focus on long memory parameters, and hypothesis testing more directly. We illustrate our new methodology on the Nile water level data, with favorable comparison to the standard estimators.
Modeling Architectural Patterns Using Architectural Primitives
Zdun, Uwe; Avgeriou, Paris
2005-01-01
Architectural patterns are a key point in architectural documentation. Regrettably, there is poor support for modeling architectural patterns, because the pattern elements are not directly matched by elements in modeling languages, and, at the same time, patterns support an inherent variability that
Oussalah, Mourad Chabanne
2014-01-01
Over the past 20 years, software architectures have significantly contributed to the development of complex and distributed systems. Nowadays, it is recognized that one of the critical problems in the design and development of any complex software system is its architecture, i.e. the organization of its architectural elements. Software Architecture presents the software architecture paradigms based on objects, components, services and models, as well as the various architectural techniques and methods, the analysis of architectural qualities, models of representation of architectural templa
Lightweight enterprise architectures
Theuerkorn, Fenix
2004-01-01
STATE OF ARCHITECTUREArchitectural ChaosRelation of Technology and Architecture The Many Faces of Architecture The Scope of Enterprise Architecture The Need for Enterprise ArchitectureThe History of Architecture The Current Environment Standardization Barriers The Need for Lightweight Architecture in the EnterpriseThe Cost of TechnologyThe Benefits of Enterprise Architecture The Domains of Architecture The Gap between Business and ITWhere Does LEA Fit? LEA's FrameworkFrameworks, Methodologies, and Approaches The Framework of LEATypes of Methodologies Types of ApproachesActual System Environmen
Oussalah , Mourad Chabane
2014-01-01
Over the past 20 years, software architectures have significantly contributed to the development of complex and distributed systems. Nowadays, it is recognized that one of the critical problems in the design and development of any complex software system is its architecture, i.e. the organization of its architectural elements. Software Architecture presents the software architecture paradigms based on objects, components, services and models, as well as the various architectural techniques and methods, the analysis of architectural qualities, models of representation of architectural template
12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics
Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo
2015-01-01
Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...
A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Belkheir Essebbar
2004-02-01
Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.
3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting
Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra
2017-01-01
This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).
Holme, Petter; Saramäki, Jari
2012-10-01
A great variety of systems in nature, society and technology-from the web of sexual contacts to the Internet, from the nervous system to power grids-can be modeled as graphs of vertices coupled by edges. The network structure, describing how the graph is wired, helps us understand, predict and optimize the behavior of dynamical systems. In many cases, however, the edges are not continuously active. As an example, in networks of communication via e-mail, text messages, or phone calls, edges represent sequences of instantaneous or practically instantaneous contacts. In some cases, edges are active for non-negligible periods of time: e.g., the proximity patterns of inpatients at hospitals can be represented by a graph where an edge between two individuals is on throughout the time they are at the same ward. Like network topology, the temporal structure of edge activations can affect dynamics of systems interacting through the network, from disease contagion on the network of patients to information diffusion over an e-mail network. In this review, we present the emergent field of temporal networks, and discuss methods for analyzing topological and temporal structure and models for elucidating their relation to the behavior of dynamical systems. In the light of traditional network theory, one can see this framework as moving the information of when things happen from the dynamical system on the network, to the network itself. Since fundamental properties, such as the transitivity of edges, do not necessarily hold in temporal networks, many of these methods need to be quite different from those for static networks. The study of temporal networks is very interdisciplinary in nature. Reflecting this, even the object of study has many names-temporal graphs, evolving graphs, time-varying graphs, time-aggregated graphs, time-stamped graphs, dynamic networks, dynamic graphs, dynamical graphs, and so on. This review covers different fields where temporal graphs are considered
Architectural design decisions
Jansen, Antonius Gradus Johannes
2008-01-01
A software architecture can be considered as the collection of key decisions concerning the design of the software of a system. Knowledge about this design, i.e. architectural knowledge, is key for understanding a software architecture and thus the software itself. Architectural knowledge is mostly
Information Integration Architecture Development
Faulkner, Stéphane; Kolp, Manuel; Nguyen, Duy Thai; Coyette, Adrien; Do, Thanh Tung; 16th International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering
2004-01-01
Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) architectures are gaining popularity for building open, distributed, and evolving software required by systems such as information integration applications. Unfortunately, despite considerable work in software architecture during the last decade, few research efforts have aimed at truly defining patterns and languages for designing such multiagent architectures. We propose a modern approach based on organizational structures and architectural description lan...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bang, Jacob Sebastian
2016-01-01
Topic 3: “Case studies dealing with the artistic and architectural work of architects worldwide, and the ties between specific artistic and architectural projects, methodologies and products”......Topic 3: “Case studies dealing with the artistic and architectural work of architects worldwide, and the ties between specific artistic and architectural projects, methodologies and products”...
Bayesian Methods and Universal Darwinism
Campbell, John
2009-12-01
Bayesian methods since the time of Laplace have been understood by their practitioners as closely aligned to the scientific method. Indeed a recent Champion of Bayesian methods, E. T. Jaynes, titled his textbook on the subject Probability Theory: the Logic of Science. Many philosophers of science including Karl Popper and Donald Campbell have interpreted the evolution of Science as a Darwinian process consisting of a `copy with selective retention' algorithm abstracted from Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Arguments are presented for an isomorphism between Bayesian Methods and Darwinian processes. Universal Darwinism, as the term has been developed by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Susan Blackmore, is the collection of scientific theories which explain the creation and evolution of their subject matter as due to the Operation of Darwinian processes. These subject matters span the fields of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences. The principle of Maximum Entropy states that Systems will evolve to states of highest entropy subject to the constraints of scientific law. This principle may be inverted to provide illumination as to the nature of scientific law. Our best cosmological theories suggest the universe contained much less complexity during the period shortly after the Big Bang than it does at present. The scientific subject matter of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences has been created since that time. An explanation is proposed for the existence of this subject matter as due to the evolution of constraints in the form of adaptations imposed on Maximum Entropy. It is argued these adaptations were discovered and instantiated through the Operations of a succession of Darwinian processes.
Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review
Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin
2017-08-01
Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been
Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl
The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....
Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl
2013-01-01
The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....
Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gretchen B. Chapman
2009-02-01
Full Text Available Previous research has demonstrated that Bayesian reasoning performance is improved if uncertainty information is presented as natural frequencies rather than single-event probabilities. A questionnaire study of 342 college students replicated this effect but also found that the performance-boosting benefits of the natural frequency presentation occurred primarily for participants who scored high in numeracy. This finding suggests that even comprehension and manipulation of natural frequencies requires a certain threshold of numeracy abilities, and that the beneficial effects of natural frequency presentation may not be as general as previously believed.
SST: Single-Stream Temporal Action Proposals
Buch, Shyamal; Escorcia, Victor; Shen, Chuanqi; Ghanem, Bernard; Niebles, Juan Carlos
2017-01-01
Our paper presents a new approach for temporal detection of human actions in long, untrimmed video sequences. We introduce Single-Stream Temporal Action Proposals (SST), a new effective and efficient deep architecture for the generation of temporal action proposals. Our network can run continuously in a single stream over very long input video sequences, without the need to divide input into short overlapping clips or temporal windows for batch processing. We demonstrate empirically that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art on the task of temporal action proposal generation, while achieving some of the fastest processing speeds in the literature. Finally, we demonstrate that using SST proposals in conjunction with existing action classifiers results in improved state-of-the-art temporal action detection performance.
SST: Single-Stream Temporal Action Proposals
Buch, Shyamal
2017-11-09
Our paper presents a new approach for temporal detection of human actions in long, untrimmed video sequences. We introduce Single-Stream Temporal Action Proposals (SST), a new effective and efficient deep architecture for the generation of temporal action proposals. Our network can run continuously in a single stream over very long input video sequences, without the need to divide input into short overlapping clips or temporal windows for batch processing. We demonstrate empirically that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art on the task of temporal action proposal generation, while achieving some of the fastest processing speeds in the literature. Finally, we demonstrate that using SST proposals in conjunction with existing action classifiers results in improved state-of-the-art temporal action detection performance.
Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Preuss, R.; Maraschek, M.; Zohm, H.; Dose, V.
2003-01-01
We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time used to describe magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally, a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data
Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard
This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...
Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment
Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra
2013-01-01
In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…
Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.
J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma
2006-01-01
Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...
Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering
Chen, Mo
2011-01-01
In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…
Robust Bayesian detection of unmodelled bursts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Searle, Antony C; Sutton, Patrick J; Tinto, Massimo; Woan, Graham
2008-01-01
We develop a Bayesian treatment of the problem of detecting unmodelled gravitational wave bursts using the new global network of interferometric detectors. We also compare this Bayesian treatment with existing coherent methods, and demonstrate that the existing methods make implicit assumptions on the distribution of signals that make them sub-optimal for realistic signal populations
Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists
Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.
2015-01-01
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models
Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach
Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.
2016-01-01
We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian
Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research
Levy, Roy
2016-01-01
In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…
Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark
2006-01-01
We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...
Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan
2004-01-01
We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...
BELM: Bayesian extreme learning machine.
Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Gómez-Sanchis, Juan; Martín, José D; Vila-Francés, Joan; Martínez, Marcelino; Magdalena, José R; Serrano, Antonio J
2011-03-01
The theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) has become very popular on the last few years. ELM is a new approach for learning the parameters of the hidden layers of a multilayer neural network (as the multilayer perceptron or the radial basis function neural network). Its main advantage is the lower computational cost, which is especially relevant when dealing with many patterns defined in a high-dimensional space. This brief proposes a bayesian approach to ELM, which presents some advantages over other approaches: it allows the introduction of a priori knowledge; obtains the confidence intervals (CIs) without the need of applying methods that are computationally intensive, e.g., bootstrap; and presents high generalization capabilities. Bayesian ELM is benchmarked against classical ELM in several artificial and real datasets that are widely used for the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Achieved results show that the proposed approach produces a competitive accuracy with some additional advantages, namely, automatic production of CIs, reduction of probability of model overfitting, and use of a priori knowledge.
BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.
Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin
2016-01-01
The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.
Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis.
Quintana, Fernando A; Johnson, Wesley O; Waetjen, Elaine; Gold, Ellen
2016-01-01
Practical Bayesian nonparametric methods have been developed across a wide variety of contexts. Here, we develop a novel statistical model that generalizes standard mixed models for longitudinal data that include flexible mean functions as well as combined compound symmetry (CS) and autoregressive (AR) covariance structures. AR structure is often specified through the use of a Gaussian process (GP) with covariance functions that allow longitudinal data to be more correlated if they are observed closer in time than if they are observed farther apart. We allow for AR structure by considering a broader class of models that incorporates a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) over the covariance parameters of the GP. We are able to take advantage of modern Bayesian statistical methods in making full predictive inferences and about characteristics of longitudinal profiles and their differences across covariate combinations. We also take advantage of the generality of our model, which provides for estimation of a variety of covariance structures. We observe that models that fail to incorporate CS or AR structure can result in very poor estimation of a covariance or correlation matrix. In our illustration using hormone data observed on women through the menopausal transition, biology dictates the use of a generalized family of sigmoid functions as a model for time trends across subpopulation categories.
Smolin, Lee
2015-11-01
Two people may claim both to be naturalists, but have divergent conceptions of basic elements of the natural world which lead them to mean different things when they talk about laws of nature, or states, or the role of mathematics in physics. These disagreements do not much affect the ordinary practice of science which is about small subsystems of the universe, described or explained against a background, idealized to be fixed. But these issues become crucial when we consider including the whole universe within our system, for then there is no fixed background to reference observables to. I argue here that the key issue responsible for divergent versions of naturalism and divergent approaches to cosmology is the conception of time. One version, which I call temporal naturalism, holds that time, in the sense of the succession of present moments, is real, and that laws of nature evolve in that time. This is contrasted with timeless naturalism, which holds that laws are immutable and the present moment and its passage are illusions. I argue that temporal naturalism is empirically more adequate than the alternatives, because it offers testable explanations for puzzles its rivals cannot address, and is likely a better basis for solving major puzzles that presently face cosmology and physics. This essay also addresses the problem of qualia and experience within naturalism and argues that only temporal naturalism can make a place for qualia as intrinsic qualities of matter.
Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul
2013-01-01
Temporal Bayesian networks have gained popularity as a robust technique to model dynamic systems in which the components' sequential dependency, as well as their functional dependency, cannot be ignored. In this regard, discrete-time Bayesian networks have been proposed as a viable alternative to solve dynamic fault trees without resort to Markov chains. This approach overcomes the drawbacks of Markov chains such as the state-space explosion and the error-prone conversion procedure from dynamic fault tree. It also benefits from the inherent advantages of Bayesian networks such as probability updating. However, effective mapping of the dynamic gates of dynamic fault trees into Bayesian networks while avoiding the consequent huge multi-dimensional probability tables has always been a matter of concern. In this paper, a new general formalism has been developed to model two important elements of dynamic fault tree, i.e., cold spare gate and sequential enforcing gate, with any arbitrary probability distribution functions. Also, an innovative Neutral Dependency algorithm has been introduced to model dynamic gates such as priority-AND gate, thus reducing the dimension of conditional probability tables by an order of magnitude. The second part of the paper is devoted to the application of discrete-time Bayesian networks in the risk assessment and safety analysis of complex process systems. It has been shown how dynamic techniques can effectively be applied for optimal allocation of safety systems to obtain maximum risk reduction.
2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting
Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra
2015-01-01
The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...
Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics
Zeevat, Henk
2015-01-01
The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.
Robust Bayesian Experimental Design for Conceptual Model Discrimination
Pham, H. V.; Tsai, F. T. C.
2015-12-01
A robust Bayesian optimal experimental design under uncertainty is presented to provide firm information for model discrimination, given the least number of pumping wells and observation wells. Firm information is the maximum information of a system can be guaranteed from an experimental design. The design is based on the Box-Hill expected entropy decrease (EED) before and after the experiment design and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework. A max-min programming is introduced to choose the robust design that maximizes the minimal Box-Hill EED subject to that the highest expected posterior model probability satisfies a desired probability threshold. The EED is calculated by the Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The BMA method is used to predict future observations and to quantify future observation uncertainty arising from conceptual and parametric uncertainties in calculating EED. Monte Carlo approach is adopted to quantify the uncertainty in the posterior model probabilities. The optimal experimental design is tested by a synthetic 5-layer anisotropic confined aquifer. Nine conceptual groundwater models are constructed due to uncertain geological architecture and boundary condition. High-performance computing is used to enumerate all possible design solutions in order to identify the most plausible groundwater model. Results highlight the impacts of scedasticity in future observation data as well as uncertainty sources on potential pumping and observation locations.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kerr, D.; Epili, D.; Kelkar, M.; Redner, R.; Reynolds, A.
1998-12-01
The study was comprised of four investigations: facies architecture; seismic modeling and interpretation; Markov random field and Boolean models for geologic modeling of facies distribution; and estimation of geological architecture using the Bayesian/maximum entropy approach. This report discusses results from all four investigations. Investigations were performed using data from the E and F units of the Middle Frio Formation, Stratton Field, one of the major reservoir intervals in the Gulf Coast Basin.
Predicting forest insect flight activity: A Bayesian network approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stephen M Pawson
Full Text Available Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight activity of three exotic insects, Hylurgus ligniperda, Hylastes ater, and Arhopalus ferus in a managed plantation forest context. Models were built from 7,144 individual hours of insect sampling, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, photon flux density, and temporal data. Discretized meteorological and temporal variables were used to build naïve Bayes tree augmented networks. Calibration results suggested that the H. ater and A. ferus Bayesian network models had the best fit for low Type I and overall errors, and H. ligniperda had the best fit for low Type II errors. Maximum hourly temperature and time since sunrise had the largest influence on H. ligniperda flight activity predictions, whereas time of day and year had the greatest influence on H. ater and A. ferus activity. Type II model errors for the prediction of no flight activity is improved by increasing the model's predictive threshold. Improvements in model performance can be made by further sampling, increasing the sensitivity of the flight intercept traps, and replicating sampling in other regions. Predicting insect flight informs an assessment of the potential phytosanitary risks of wood exports. Quantifying this risk allows mitigation treatments to be targeted to prevent the spread of invasive species via international trade pathways.
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness
Vanem, E.; Breivik, O. N.
2013-03-01
Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. Vanem
2013-03-01
Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.
Modeling Architectural Patterns’ Behavior Using Architectural Primitives
Waqas Kamal, Ahmad; Avgeriou, Paris
2008-01-01
Architectural patterns have an impact on both the structure and the behavior of a system at the architecture design level. However, it is challenging to model patterns’ behavior in a systematic way because modeling languages do not provide the appropriate abstractions and because each pattern
Gallistel, C.R.; Craig, Andrew R.; Shahan, Timothy A.
2015-01-01
Contingency, and more particularly temporal contingency, has often figured in thinking about the nature of learning. However, it has never been formally defined in such a way as to make it a measure that can be applied to most animal learning protocols. We use elementary information theory to define contingency in such a way as to make it a measurable property of almost any conditioning protocol. We discuss how making it a measurable construct enables the exploration of the role of different contingencies in the acquisition and performance of classically and operantly conditioned behavior. PMID:23994260
Gallistel, C R; Craig, Andrew R; Shahan, Timothy A
2014-01-01
Contingency, and more particularly temporal contingency, has often figured in thinking about the nature of learning. However, it has never been formally defined in such a way as to make it a measure that can be applied to most animal learning protocols. We use elementary information theory to define contingency in such a way as to make it a measurable property of almost any conditioning protocol. We discuss how making it a measurable construct enables the exploration of the role of different contingencies in the acquisition and performance of classically and operantly conditioned behavior. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Bayesian switching factor analysis for estimating time-varying functional connectivity in fMRI.
Taghia, Jalil; Ryali, Srikanth; Chen, Tianwen; Supekar, Kaustubh; Cai, Weidong; Menon, Vinod
2017-07-15
There is growing interest in understanding the dynamical properties of functional interactions between distributed brain regions. However, robust estimation of temporal dynamics from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data remains challenging due to limitations in extant multivariate methods for modeling time-varying functional interactions between multiple brain areas. Here, we develop a Bayesian generative model for fMRI time-series within the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs). The model is a dynamic variant of the static factor analysis model (Ghahramani and Beal, 2000). We refer to this model as Bayesian switching factor analysis (BSFA) as it integrates factor analysis into a generative HMM in a unified Bayesian framework. In BSFA, brain dynamic functional networks are represented by latent states which are learnt from the data. Crucially, BSFA is a generative model which estimates the temporal evolution of brain states and transition probabilities between states as a function of time. An attractive feature of BSFA is the automatic determination of the number of latent states via Bayesian model selection arising from penalization of excessively complex models. Key features of BSFA are validated using extensive simulations on carefully designed synthetic data. We further validate BSFA using fingerprint analysis of multisession resting-state fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our results show that modeling temporal dependencies in the generative model of BSFA results in improved fingerprinting of individual participants. Finally, we apply BSFA to elucidate the dynamic functional organization of the salience, central-executive, and default mode networks-three core neurocognitive systems with central role in cognitive and affective information processing (Menon, 2011). Across two HCP sessions, we demonstrate a high level of dynamic interactions between these networks and determine that the salience network has the highest temporal
A Bayesian Reflection on Surfaces
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David R. Wolf
1999-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract: The topic of this paper is a novel Bayesian continuous-basis field representation and inference framework. Within this paper several problems are solved: The maximally informative inference of continuous-basis fields, that is where the basis for the field is itself a continuous object and not representable in a finite manner; the tradeoff between accuracy of representation in terms of information learned, and memory or storage capacity in bits; the approximation of probability distributions so that a maximal amount of information about the object being inferred is preserved; an information theoretic justification for multigrid methodology. The maximally informative field inference framework is described in full generality and denoted the Generalized Kalman Filter. The Generalized Kalman Filter allows the update of field knowledge from previous knowledge at any scale, and new data, to new knowledge at any other scale. An application example instance, the inference of continuous surfaces from measurements (for example, camera image data, is presented.
Attention in a bayesian framework
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Whiteley, Louise Emma; Sahani, Maneesh
2012-01-01
, and include both selective phenomena, where attention is invoked by cues that point to particular stimuli, and integrative phenomena, where attention is invoked dynamically by endogenous processing. However, most previous Bayesian accounts of attention have focused on describing relatively simple experimental...... selective and integrative roles, and thus cannot be easily extended to complex environments. We suggest that the resource bottleneck stems from the computational intractability of exact perceptual inference in complex settings, and that attention reflects an evolved mechanism for approximate inference which...... can be shaped to refine the local accuracy of perception. We show that this approach extends the simple picture of attention as prior, so as to provide a unified and computationally driven account of both selective and integrative attentional phenomena....
On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Soerensen Ringi, M
1995-05-01
The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.
Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics
Müller, Peter
2015-01-01
As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...
On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soerensen Ringi, M.
1995-01-01
The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs
Bayesian estimation in homodyne interferometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Olivares, Stefano; Paris, Matteo G A
2009-01-01
We address phase-shift estimation by means of squeezed vacuum probe and homodyne detection. We analyse Bayesian estimator, which is known to asymptotically saturate the classical Cramer-Rao bound to the variance, and discuss convergence looking at the a posteriori distribution as the number of measurements increases. We also suggest two feasible adaptive methods, acting on the squeezing parameter and/or the homodyne local oscillator phase, which allow us to optimize homodyne detection and approach the ultimate bound to precision imposed by the quantum Cramer-Rao theorem. The performances of our two-step methods are investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulated experiments with a small number of homodyne data, thus giving a quantitative meaning to the notion of asymptotic optimality.
Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts.
Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B
2011-12-01
Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online.
Bayesian networks in educational assessment
Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M
2015-01-01
Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...
Religious architecture: anthropological perspectives
Verkaaik, O.
2013-01-01
Religious Architecture: Anthropological Perspectives develops an anthropological perspective on modern religious architecture, including mosques, churches and synagogues. Borrowing from a range of theoretical perspectives on space-making and material religion, this volume looks at how religious
Avionics Architecture for Exploration
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of the AES Avionics Architectures for Exploration (AAE) project is to develop a reference architecture that is based on standards and that can be scaled and...
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Christensen, Marc
2004-01-01
This project had two goals: To build an emulation prototype board for a tiled architecture and to demonstrate the utility of a global inter-chip free-space photonic interconnection fabric for polymorphous computer architectures (PCA...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
2002-01-01
katalog til udstillingen 'Rhein - Ruhr architecture' Meldahls smedie, 15. marts - 28. april 2002. 99 sider......katalog til udstillingen 'Rhein - Ruhr architecture' Meldahls smedie, 15. marts - 28. april 2002. 99 sider...
Spatial Modernist Architectural Artistic Concepts
Gudkova, T. V.; Gudkov, A. A.
2017-11-01
The development of a single spatial modernist conception had continued until the middle of the twentieth century. The first authors who proposed the new conceptual solutions of an architectural space that had the greatest impact on the further development of architecture were Le Corbusier, Frank Lloyd Wright, Mies van der Rohein. They embodied different approaches within the common modernist spatial concept using the language of morphological, symbolic and phenomenological descriptions of space. The concept was based on the simplification of functional links, integration of internal architectural space with the environment due to the vanishing of boundaries between them and expansion of their interrelation. Le Corbusier proposed a spatio-temporal concept based on the movement and tempo-rhythmics of the space “from inside to outside.” Frank Lloyd Wright proposed the concept of integral space where inner and outer spaces were the parts of a whole. Mies van der Rohein was the author of the universal space concept in which the idea of the “dissolution” of the inner space in the outer space was embodied.
Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models
Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.
2017-12-01
Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream
Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model
Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.
2010-01-01
Regional coastal cliff retreat is difficult to model due to the episodic nature of failures and the along-shore variability of retreat events. There is a growing demand, however, for predictive models that can be used to forecast areas vulnerable to coastal erosion hazards. Increasingly, probabilistic models are being employed that require data sets of high temporal density to define the joint probability density function that relates forcing variables (e.g. wave conditions) and initial conditions (e.g. cliff geometry) to erosion events. In this study we use a multi-parameter Bayesian network to investigate correlations between key variables that control and influence variations in cliff retreat processes. The network uses Bayesian statistical methods to estimate event probabilities using existing observations. Within this framework, we forecast the spatial distribution of cliff retreat along two stretches of cliffed coast in Southern California. The input parameters are the height and slope of the cliff, a descriptor of material strength based on the dominant cliff-forming lithology, and the long-term cliff erosion rate that represents prior behavior. The model is forced using predicted wave impact hours. Results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach is well-suited to the forward modeling of coastal cliff retreat, with the correct outcomes forecast in 70–90% of the modeled transects. The model also performs well in identifying specific locations of high cliff erosion, thus providing a foundation for hazard mapping. This approach can be employed to predict cliff erosion at time-scales ranging from storm events to the impacts of sea-level rise at the century-scale.
Mohammad Javaheri, Saharnaz
2016-01-01
Film does not exist without architecture. In every movie that has ever been made throughout history, the cinematic image of architecture is embedded within the picture. Throughout my studies and research, I began to see that there is no director who can consciously or unconsciously deny the use of architectural elements in his or her movies. Architecture offers a strong profile to distinguish characters and story. In the early days, films were shot in streets surrounde...
Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...
Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists
Hobbs, N Thompson
2015-01-01
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Elements of Architecture explores new ways of engaging architecture in archaeology. It conceives of architecture both as the physical evidence of past societies and as existing beyond the physical environment, considering how people in the past have not just dwelled in buildings but have existed...
MapReduce Based Parallel Bayesian Network for Manufacturing Quality Control
Zheng, Mao-Kuan; Ming, Xin-Guo; Zhang, Xian-Yu; Li, Guo-Ming
2017-09-01
Increasing complexity of industrial products and manufacturing processes have challenged conventional statistics based quality management approaches in the circumstances of dynamic production. A Bayesian network and big data analytics integrated approach for manufacturing process quality analysis and control is proposed. Based on Hadoop distributed architecture and MapReduce parallel computing model, big volume and variety quality related data generated during the manufacturing process could be dealt with. Artificial intelligent algorithms, including Bayesian network learning, classification and reasoning, are embedded into the Reduce process. Relying on the ability of the Bayesian network in dealing with dynamic and uncertain problem and the parallel computing power of MapReduce, Bayesian network of impact factors on quality are built based on prior probability distribution and modified with posterior probability distribution. A case study on hull segment manufacturing precision management for ship and offshore platform building shows that computing speed accelerates almost directly proportionally to the increase of computing nodes. It is also proved that the proposed model is feasible for locating and reasoning of root causes, forecasting of manufacturing outcome, and intelligent decision for precision problem solving. The integration of bigdata analytics and BN method offers a whole new perspective in manufacturing quality control.
Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan
Hussain, Ijaz; Spöck, Gunter; Pilz, Jürgen; Yu, Hwa-Lung
2010-08-01
Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space-time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space-time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box-Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space-time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974-2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space-time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.
Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model of Lung Cancer Mortality
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bhikhari P. Tharu
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Background The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend for lung cancer mortality in the population of the USA by 5 years based on most recent available data namely to 2010. The knowledge of the mortality rates in the temporal trends is necessary to understand cancer burden.Methods Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was fitted using Poisson regression with histogram smoothing prior to decompose mortality rates based on age at death, period at death, and birth-cohort.Results Mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly from age 52 years. It ended up to 325 deaths annually for 82 years on average. The mortality of younger cohorts was lower than older cohorts. The risk of lung cancer was lowered from period 1993 to recent periods.Conclusions The fitted Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model with histogram smoothing prior is capable of explaining mortality rate of lung cancer. The reduction in carcinogens in cigarettes and increase in smoking cessation from around 1960 might led to decreasing trend of lung cancer mortality after calendar period 1993.
Vital architecture, slow momentum policy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Braae, Ellen Marie
2010-01-01
A reflection on the relation between Danish landscape architecture policy and the statements made through current landscape architectural project.......A reflection on the relation between Danish landscape architecture policy and the statements made through current landscape architectural project....
Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.
Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad
2016-08-01
Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.
Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Berry, Scott M
2011-01-01
.... One is that Bayesian approaches implemented with the majority of their informative content coming from the current data, and not any external prior informa- tion, typically have good frequentist properties (e.g...
A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buslik, A.
1994-01-01
A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given
Structure-based bayesian sparse reconstruction
Quadeer, Ahmed Abdul; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.
2012-01-01
Sparse signal reconstruction algorithms have attracted research attention due to their wide applications in various fields. In this paper, we present a simple Bayesian approach that utilizes the sparsity constraint and a priori statistical
An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V
2014-01-01
Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++
Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data
Liang, Faming
2009-02-01
Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference
Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.
2014-03-01
Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.
Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.
Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji
2018-01-01
An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.
Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Atwood, C.L.
1986-01-01
This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)
Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.
2002-01-01
The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas
An overview on Approximate Bayesian computation*
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Baragatti Meïli
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation techniques, also called likelihood-free methods, are one of the most satisfactory approach to intractable likelihood problems. This overview presents recent results since its introduction about ten years ago in population genetics.
General Temporal Knowledge for Planning and Data Mining
Morris, Robert; Khatib, Lina
2001-01-01
We consider the architecture of systems that combine temporal planning and plan execution and introduce a layer of temporal reasoning that potential1y improves both the communication between humans and such systems, and the performance of the temporal planner itself. In particular, this additional layer simultaneously supports more flexibility in specifying and maintaining temporal constraints on plans within an uncertain and changing execution environment, and the ability to understand and trace the progress of plan execution. It is shown how a representation based on single set of abstractions of temporal information can be used to characterize the reasoning underlying plan generation and execution interpretation. The complexity of such reasoning is discussed.
Exporting Humanist Architecture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Tom
2016-01-01
The article is a chapter in the catalogue for the Danish exhibition at the 2016 Architecture Biennale in Venice. The catalogue is conceived at an independent book exploring the theme Art of Many - The Right to Space. The chapter is an essay in this anthology tracing and discussing the different...... values and ethical stands involved in the export of Danish Architecture. Abstract: Danish architecture has, in a sense, been driven by an unwritten contract between the architects and the democratic state and its institutions. This contract may be viewed as an ethos – an architectural tradition...... with inherent aesthetic and moral values. Today, however, Danish architecture is also an export commodity. That raises questions, which should be debated as openly as possible. What does it mean for architecture and architects to practice in cultures and under political systems that do not use architecture...
Software architecture evolution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barais, Olivier; Le Meur, Anne-Francoise; Duchien, Laurence
2008-01-01
Software architectures must frequently evolve to cope with changing requirements, and this evolution often implies integrating new concerns. Unfortunately, when the new concerns are crosscutting, existing architecture description languages provide little or no support for this kind of evolution....... The software architect must modify multiple elements of the architecture manually, which risks introducing inconsistencies. This chapter provides an overview, comparison and detailed treatment of the various state-of-the-art approaches to describing and evolving software architectures. Furthermore, we discuss...... one particular framework named Tran SAT, which addresses the above problems of software architecture evolution. Tran SAT provides a new element in the software architecture descriptions language, called an architectural aspect, for describing new concerns and their integration into an existing...
Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kopec, S.
1994-01-01
Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)
A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition
Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick
2007-01-01
URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...
Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player
Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre
2011-03-01
This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.
Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference
2016-05-09
inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle
Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2005-01-01
For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.
MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.
2011-01-01
This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.
Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions
2011-10-01
years, that algorithms have been developed to solve these problems efficiently. Most modern Bayesian network software uses junction tree (a.k.a. join... software was used to develop the network . This is by no means an exhaustive list of Bayesian network applications, but it is representative of recent...characteristic node (SCN), state- defining node ( SDN ), effect node (EFN), or value node. The five types of nodes can be described as follows: ERDC/EL TR-11
Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine
2016-01-01
Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf
A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling
Lo, Albert Y.
1993-01-01
Bayesian statistical inference for sampling from weighted distribution models is studied. Small-sample Bayesian bootstrap clone (BBC) approximations to the posterior distribution are discussed. A second-order property for the BBC in unweighted i.i.d. sampling is given. A consequence is that BBC approximations to a posterior distribution of the mean and to the sampling distribution of the sample average, can be made asymptotically accurate by a proper choice of the random variables that genera...
Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.
Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla
2013-02-01
A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.
Bayesian Image Restoration Using a Large-Scale Total Patch Variation Prior
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yang Chen
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Edge-preserving Bayesian restorations using nonquadratic priors are often inefficient in restoring continuous variations and tend to produce block artifacts around edges in ill-posed inverse image restorations. To overcome this, we have proposed a spatial adaptive (SA prior with improved performance. However, this SA prior restoration suffers from high computational cost and the unguaranteed convergence problem. Concerning these issues, this paper proposes a Large-scale Total Patch Variation (LS-TPV Prior model for Bayesian image restoration. In this model, the prior for each pixel is defined as a singleton conditional probability, which is in a mixture prior form of one patch similarity prior and one weight entropy prior. A joint MAP estimation is thus built to ensure the iteration monotonicity. The intensive calculation of patch distances is greatly alleviated by the parallelization of Compute Unified Device Architecture(CUDA. Experiments with both simulated and real data validate the good performance of the proposed restoration.
Nitrate source apportionment in a subtropical watershed using Bayesian model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Liping; Han, Jiangpei; Xue, Jianlong; Zeng, Lingzao [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Shi, Jiachun, E-mail: jcshi@zju.edu.cn [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Wu, Laosheng, E-mail: laowu@zju.edu.cn [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Jiang, Yonghai [State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012 (China)
2013-10-01
Nitrate (NO{sub 3}{sup −}) pollution in aquatic system is a worldwide problem. The temporal distribution pattern and sources of nitrate are of great concern for water quality. The nitrogen (N) cycling processes in a subtropical watershed located in Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, China were greatly influenced by the temporal variations of precipitation and temperature during the study period (September 2011 to July 2012). The highest NO{sub 3}{sup −} concentration in water was in May (wet season, mean ± SD = 17.45 ± 9.50 mg L{sup −1}) and the lowest concentration occurred in December (dry season, mean ± SD = 10.54 ± 6.28 mg L{sup −1}). Nevertheless, no water sample in the study area exceeds the WHO drinking water limit of 50 mg L{sup −1} NO{sub 3}{sup −}. Four sources of NO{sub 3}{sup −} (atmospheric deposition, AD; soil N, SN; synthetic fertilizer, SF; manure and sewage, M and S) were identified using both hydrochemical characteristics [Cl{sup −}, NO{sub 3}{sup −}, HCO{sub 3}{sup −}, SO{sub 4}{sup 2−}, Ca{sup 2+}, K{sup +}, Mg{sup 2+}, Na{sup +}, dissolved oxygen (DO)] and dual isotope approach (δ{sup 15}N–NO{sub 3}{sup −} and δ{sup 18}O–NO{sub 3}{sup −}). Both chemical and isotopic characteristics indicated that denitrification was not the main N cycling process in the study area. Using a Bayesian model (stable isotope analysis in R, SIAR), the contribution of each source was apportioned. Source apportionment results showed that source contributions differed significantly between the dry and wet season, AD and M and S contributed more in December than in May. In contrast, SN and SF contributed more NO{sub 3}{sup −} to water in May than that in December. M and S and SF were the major contributors in December and May, respectively. Moreover, the shortcomings and uncertainties of SIAR were discussed to provide implications for future works. With the assessment of temporal variation and sources of NO{sub 3}{sup −}, better
Nitrate source apportionment in a subtropical watershed using Bayesian model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, Liping; Han, Jiangpei; Xue, Jianlong; Zeng, Lingzao; Shi, Jiachun; Wu, Laosheng; Jiang, Yonghai
2013-01-01
Nitrate (NO 3 − ) pollution in aquatic system is a worldwide problem. The temporal distribution pattern and sources of nitrate are of great concern for water quality. The nitrogen (N) cycling processes in a subtropical watershed located in Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, China were greatly influenced by the temporal variations of precipitation and temperature during the study period (September 2011 to July 2012). The highest NO 3 − concentration in water was in May (wet season, mean ± SD = 17.45 ± 9.50 mg L −1 ) and the lowest concentration occurred in December (dry season, mean ± SD = 10.54 ± 6.28 mg L −1 ). Nevertheless, no water sample in the study area exceeds the WHO drinking water limit of 50 mg L −1 NO 3 − . Four sources of NO 3 − (atmospheric deposition, AD; soil N, SN; synthetic fertilizer, SF; manure and sewage, M and S) were identified using both hydrochemical characteristics [Cl − , NO 3 − , HCO 3 − , SO 4 2− , Ca 2+ , K + , Mg 2+ , Na + , dissolved oxygen (DO)] and dual isotope approach (δ 15 N–NO 3 − and δ 18 O–NO 3 − ). Both chemical and isotopic characteristics indicated that denitrification was not the main N cycling process in the study area. Using a Bayesian model (stable isotope analysis in R, SIAR), the contribution of each source was apportioned. Source apportionment results showed that source contributions differed significantly between the dry and wet season, AD and M and S contributed more in December than in May. In contrast, SN and SF contributed more NO 3 − to water in May than that in December. M and S and SF were the major contributors in December and May, respectively. Moreover, the shortcomings and uncertainties of SIAR were discussed to provide implications for future works. With the assessment of temporal variation and sources of NO 3 − , better agricultural management practices and sewage disposal programs can be implemented to sustain water quality in subtropical watersheds
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ritschel, Tobias; Ihrke, Matthias; Frisvad, Jeppe Revall
2009-01-01
Glare is a consequence of light scattered within the human eye when looking at bright light sources. This effect can be exploited for tone mapping since adding glare to the depiction of high-dynamic range (HDR) imagery on a low-dynamic range (LDR) medium can dramatically increase perceived contra...... to initially static HDR images. By conducting psychophysical studies, we validate that our method improves perceived brightness and that dynamic glare-renderings are often perceived as more attractive depending on the chosen scene.......Glare is a consequence of light scattered within the human eye when looking at bright light sources. This effect can be exploited for tone mapping since adding glare to the depiction of high-dynamic range (HDR) imagery on a low-dynamic range (LDR) medium can dramatically increase perceived contrast....... Even though most, if not all, subjects report perceiving glare as a bright pattern that fluctuates in time, up to now it has only been modeled as a static phenomenon. We argue that the temporal properties of glare are a strong means to increase perceived brightness and to produce realistic...
EXONEST: The Bayesian Exoplanetary Explorer
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kevin H. Knuth
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The fields of astronomy and astrophysics are currently engaged in an unprecedented era of discovery as recent missions have revealed thousands of exoplanets orbiting other stars. While the Kepler Space Telescope mission has enabled most of these exoplanets to be detected by identifying transiting events, exoplanets often exhibit additional photometric effects that can be used to improve the characterization of exoplanets. The EXONEST Exoplanetary Explorer is a Bayesian exoplanet inference engine based on nested sampling and originally designed to analyze archived Kepler Space Telescope and CoRoT (Convection Rotation et Transits planétaires exoplanet mission data. We discuss the EXONEST software package and describe how it accommodates plug-and-play models of exoplanet-associated photometric effects for the purpose of exoplanet detection, characterization and scientific hypothesis testing. The current suite of models allows for both circular and eccentric orbits in conjunction with photometric effects, such as the primary transit and secondary eclipse, reflected light, thermal emissions, ellipsoidal variations, Doppler beaming and superrotation. We discuss our new efforts to expand the capabilities of the software to include more subtle photometric effects involving reflected and refracted light. We discuss the EXONEST inference engine design and introduce our plans to port the current MATLAB-based EXONEST software package over to the next generation Exoplanetary Explorer, which will be a Python-based open source project with the capability to employ third-party plug-and-play models of exoplanet-related photometric effects.
Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, C.R.; Erickson, G.J.; Neudorfer, P.O.
1992-01-01
Bayesian probability theory and Maximum Entropy methods are at the core of a new view of scientific inference. These 'new' ideas, along with the revolution in computational methods afforded by modern computers allow astronomers, electrical engineers, image processors of any type, NMR chemists and physicists, and anyone at all who has to deal with incomplete and noisy data, to take advantage of methods that, in the past, have been applied only in some areas of theoretical physics. The title workshops have been the focus of a group of researchers from many different fields, and this diversity is evident in this book. There are tutorial and theoretical papers, and applications in a very wide variety of fields. Almost any instance of dealing with incomplete and noisy data can be usefully treated by these methods, and many areas of theoretical research are being enhanced by the thoughtful application of Bayes' theorem. Contributions contained in this volume present a state-of-the-art overview that will be influential and useful for many years to come
Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P
2014-01-01
The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian
Multiple Temporalities, Layered Histories
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Steven Pearson
2017-11-01
Full Text Available In Quotational Practices: Repeating the Future in Contemporary Art, Patrick Greaney asserts, “the past matters not only because of what actually happened but also because of the possibilities that were not realized and that still could be. Quotation evokes those possibilities. By repeating the past, artists and writers may be attempting to repeat that past’s unrealized futures.”[1] In the information age, the Internet, for instance, provides us an expanded collection of visual information—quite literally available at our fingertips—summoning together aspects of the past and possibilities of the future into a boundless present. Sketchbook Revisions (2014–2015, a series of mixed-media paintings, represents my attempt to communicate the ways in which I experience my contemporary moment constructed from multiple temporalities excavated from my past. This body of work combines fragments of representational paintings created between 1995 and 2003 and nonrepresentational renderings produced between 2003 and 2014. Using traditional tracing paper and graphic color, I randomly select moments of my previous work to transfer and layer over selected areas of already-filled pages of a sketchbook I used from 2003 to 2004. These sketches depict objects I encountered in studio art classrooms and iconic architecture on the campus of McDaniel College, and often incorporate teaching notes. The final renditions of fragmented and layered histories enact the ways that we collectively experience multiple temporalities in the present. Quoting my various bodies of work, Sketchbook Revisions challenges both material and conceptual boundaries that determine fixed notions of artistic identity.
Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Inversion Using a Multiscale Hierarchical Model
Mondal, Anirban
2014-07-03
We consider a Bayesian approach to nonlinear inverse problems in which the unknown quantity is a random field (spatial or temporal). The Bayesian approach contains a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, can incorporate information from heterogeneous sources and provide a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inverse solution. The Bayesian setting casts the inverse solution as a posterior probability distribution over the model parameters. The Karhunen-Loeve expansion is used for dimension reduction of the random field. Furthermore, we use a hierarchical Bayes model to inject multiscale data in the modeling framework. In this Bayesian framework, we show that this inverse problem is well-posed by proving that the posterior measure is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the data in total variation norm. Computational challenges in this construction arise from the need for repeated evaluations of the forward model (e.g., in the context of MCMC) and are compounded by high dimensionality of the posterior. We develop two-stage reversible jump MCMC that has the ability to screen the bad proposals in the first inexpensive stage. Numerical results are presented by analyzing simulated as well as real data from hydrocarbon reservoir. This article has supplementary material available online. © 2014 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality.
Enterprise architecture management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rahimi, Fatemeh; Gøtze, John; Møller, Charles
2017-01-01
Despite the growing interest in enterprise architecture management, researchers and practitioners lack a shared understanding of its applications in organizations. Building on findings from a literature review and eight case studies, we develop a taxonomy that categorizes applications of enterprise...... architecture management based on three classes of enterprise architecture scope. Organizations may adopt enterprise architecture management to help form, plan, and implement IT strategies; help plan and implement business strategies; or to further complement the business strategy-formation process....... The findings challenge the traditional IT-centric view of enterprise architecture management application and suggest enterprise architecture management as an approach that could support the consistent design and evolution of an organization as a whole....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ryhl, Camilla
2016-01-01
Taking an off set in the understanding of architectural quality being based on multisensory architecture, the paper aims to discuss the current acoustic discourse in inclusive design and its implications to the integration of inclusive design in architectural discourse and practice as well...... as the understanding of user needs. The paper further points to the need to elaborate and nuance the discourse much more, in order to assure inclusion to the many users living with a hearing impairment or, for other reasons, with a high degree of auditory sensitivity. Using the authors’ own research on inclusive...... design and architectural quality for people with a hearing disability and a newly conducted qualitative evaluation research in Denmark as well as architectural theories on multisensory aspects of architectural experiences, the paper uses examples of existing Nordic building cases to discuss the role...
Enterprise architecture management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rahimi, Fatemeh; Gøtze, John; Møller, Charles
2017-01-01
architecture management based on three classes of enterprise architecture scope. Organizations may adopt enterprise architecture management to help form, plan, and implement IT strategies; help plan and implement business strategies; or to further complement the business strategy-formation process......Despite the growing interest in enterprise architecture management, researchers and practitioners lack a shared understanding of its applications in organizations. Building on findings from a literature review and eight case studies, we develop a taxonomy that categorizes applications of enterprise....... The findings challenge the traditional IT-centric view of enterprise architecture management application and suggest enterprise architecture management as an approach that could support the consistent design and evolution of an organization as a whole....
A Bayesian network approach to the database search problem in criminal proceedings
2012-01-01
Background The ‘database search problem’, that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions
An Architecture of Reconciliation
Bolton, Carlton Robert
2001-01-01
The reconciliation of architectural idea and built form is accomplished by the materialization of the idea through the use of specific materials with their inherent qualities and restrictions. The learning begins when one sees these restrictions not as a hinderance to the idea, but that which can reveal the very essence of Architecture. The virtue of this architecture of reconciliation lies in its ability to help Man understand his surroundings and place in the world at large. This is acc...
Flexible weapons architecture design
Pyant, William C.
2015-01-01
Present day air-delivered weapons are of a closed architecture, with little to no ability to tailor the weapon for the individual engagement. The closed architectures require weaponeers to make the target fit the weapon instead of fitting the individual weapons to a target. The concept of a flexible weapons aims to modularize weapons design using an open architecture shell into which different modules are inserted to achieve the desired target fractional damage while reducing cost and civilia...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ryhl, Camilla
2009-01-01
Accommodating sensory disabilities in architectural design requires specific design considerations. These are different from the ones included by the existing design concept 'accessibility', which primarily accommodates physical disabilites. Hence a new design concept 'sensory accessbility......' is presented as a parallel and complementary concept to the existing one. Sensory accessiblity accommodates sensory disabilities and describes architectural design requirements needed to ensure access to to the sensory experiences and architectural quality of a given space. The article is based on research...
Architecture humanitarian emergencies
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gomez-Guillamon, Maria; Eskemose Andersen, Jørgen; Contreras, Jorge Lobos
2013-01-01
Introduced by scientific articles conserning architecture and human rights in light of cultures, emergencies, social equality and sustainability, democracy, economy, artistic development and science into architecture. Concluding in definition of needs for new roles, processes and education of arc......, Architettura di Alghero in Italy, Architecture and Design of Kocaeli University in Turkey, University of Aguascalientes in Mexico, Architectura y Urbanismo of University of Chile and Escuela de Architectura of Universidad Austral in Chile....
Costa Agarez, Ricardo
2015-01-01
For most architects, architecture is not only art, craft, passion and engagement; it is their ‘bread-and-butter’, too, and has been so since long. Architecture, consciously or unconsciously, is also the ‘bread-and-butter’ of communities across the world: successfully or unsuccessfully it is part of the daily lives of ordinary women and men. Yet practitioners, theoreticians and historians of architecture often disregard the more quotidian side of the discipline, a neglect that is inversely pro...
The ATLAS Analysis Architecture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cranmer, K.S.
2008-01-01
We present an overview of the ATLAS analysis architecture including the relevant aspects of the computing model and the major architectural aspects of the Athena framework. Emphasis will be given to the interplay between the analysis use cases and the technical aspects of the architecture including the design of the event data model, transient-persistent separation, data reduction strategies, analysis tools, and ROOT interoperability
Architecture for Data Management
Vukolic, Marko
2015-01-01
In this document we present the preliminary architecture of the SUPERCLOUD data management and storage. We start by defining the design requirements of the architecture, motivated by use cases and then review the state-of-the-art. We survey security and dependability technologies and discuss designs for the overall unifying architecture for data management that serves as an umbrella for different security and dependability data management features. Specifically the document lays out the archi...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Taft, Jeffrey D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2016-01-01
The report describes work done on Grid Architecture under the auspices of the Department of Electricity Office of Electricity Delivery and Reliability in 2015. As described in the first Grid Architecture report, the primary purpose of this work is to provide stakeholder insight about grid issues so as to enable superior decision making on their part. Doing this requires the creation of various work products, including oft-times complex diagrams, analyses, and explanations. This report provides architectural insights into several important grid topics and also describes work done to advance the science of Grid Architecture as well.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ebsen, Tobias
2010-01-01
This text explores the concept of media architecture as a phenomenon of visual culture that describes the use of screen-technology in new spatial configurations in practices of architecture and art. I shall argue that this phenomenon is not necessarily a revolutionary new approach, but rather...... a result of conceptual changes in both modes visual representation and in expressions of architecture. These are changes the may be described as an evolution of ideas and consequent experiments that can be traced back to changes in the history of art and the various styles and ideologies of architecture....
Decentralized Software Architecture
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Khare, Rohit
2002-01-01
.... While the term "decentralization" is familiar from political and economic contexts, it has been applied extensively, if indiscriminately, to describe recent trends in software architecture towards...
Bayesian analogy with relational transformations.
Lu, Hongjing; Chen, Dawn; Holyoak, Keith J
2012-07-01
How can humans acquire relational representations that enable analogical inference and other forms of high-level reasoning? Using comparative relations as a model domain, we explore the possibility that bottom-up learning mechanisms applied to objects coded as feature vectors can yield representations of relations sufficient to solve analogy problems. We introduce Bayesian analogy with relational transformations (BART) and apply the model to the task of learning first-order comparative relations (e.g., larger, smaller, fiercer, meeker) from a set of animal pairs. Inputs are coded by vectors of continuous-valued features, based either on human magnitude ratings, normed feature ratings (De Deyne et al., 2008), or outputs of the topics model (Griffiths, Steyvers, & Tenenbaum, 2007). Bootstrapping from empirical priors, the model is able to induce first-order relations represented as probabilistic weight distributions, even when given positive examples only. These learned representations allow classification of novel instantiations of the relations and yield a symbolic distance effect of the sort obtained with both humans and other primates. BART then transforms its learned weight distributions by importance-guided mapping, thereby placing distinct dimensions into correspondence. These transformed representations allow BART to reliably solve 4-term analogies (e.g., larger:smaller::fiercer:meeker), a type of reasoning that is arguably specific to humans. Our results provide a proof-of-concept that structured analogies can be solved with representations induced from unstructured feature vectors by mechanisms that operate in a largely bottom-up fashion. We discuss potential implications for algorithmic and neural models of relational thinking, as well as for the evolution of abstract thought. Copyright 2012 APA, all rights reserved.
Bayesian tomographic reconstruction of microsystems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Salem, Sofia Fekih; Vabre, Alexandre; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2007-01-01
The microtomography by X ray transmission plays an increasingly dominating role in the study and the understanding of microsystems. Within this framework, an experimental setup of high resolution X ray microtomography was developed at CEA-List to quantify the physical parameters related to the fluids flow in microsystems. Several difficulties rise from the nature of experimental data collected on this setup: enhanced error measurements due to various physical phenomena occurring during the image formation (diffusion, beam hardening), and specificities of the setup (limited angle, partial view of the object, weak contrast).To reconstruct the object we must solve an inverse problem. This inverse problem is known to be ill-posed. It therefore needs to be regularized by introducing prior information. The main prior information we account for is that the object is composed of a finite known number of different materials distributed in compact regions. This a priori information is introduced via a Gauss-Markov field for the contrast distributions with a hidden Potts-Markov field for the class materials in the Bayesian estimation framework. The computations are done by using an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique.In this paper, we present first the basic steps of the proposed algorithms. Then we focus on one of the main steps in any iterative reconstruction method which is the computation of forward and adjoint operators (projection and backprojection). A fast implementation of these two operators is crucial for the real application of the method. We give some details on the fast computation of these steps and show some preliminary results of simulations
Objective Bayesianism and the Maximum Entropy Principle
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jon Williamson
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Objective Bayesian epistemology invokes three norms: the strengths of our beliefs should be probabilities; they should be calibrated to our evidence of physical probabilities; and they should otherwise equivocate sufficiently between the basic propositions that we can express. The three norms are sometimes explicated by appealing to the maximum entropy principle, which says that a belief function should be a probability function, from all those that are calibrated to evidence, that has maximum entropy. However, the three norms of objective Bayesianism are usually justified in different ways. In this paper, we show that the three norms can all be subsumed under a single justification in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss. This, in turn, is equivalent to maximising a generalised notion of entropy. We suggest that requiring language invariance, in addition to minimising worst-case expected loss, motivates maximisation of standard entropy as opposed to maximisation of other instances of generalised entropy. Our argument also provides a qualified justification for updating degrees of belief by Bayesian conditionalisation. However, conditional probabilities play a less central part in the objective Bayesian account than they do under the subjective view of Bayesianism, leading to a reduced role for Bayes’ Theorem.
A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.
Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2015-03-01
In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).
Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network
Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya
2018-03-01
Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Meng, Weizhi; Li, Wenjuan; Xiang, Yang
2017-01-01
and experience for both patients and healthcare workers, and the underlying network architecture to support such devices is also referred to as medical smartphone networks (MSNs). MSNs, similar to other networks, are subject to a wide range of attacks (e.g. leakage of sensitive patient information by a malicious...... insider). In this work, we focus on MSNs and present a compact but efficient trust-based approach using Bayesian inference to identify malicious nodes in such an environment. We then demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in detecting malicious nodes by evaluating the deployment of our proposed...
Tsang, Mankei; Psaltis, Demetri
2006-01-01
The concept of quantum temporal imaging is proposed to manipulate the temporal correlation of entangled photons. In particular, we show that time correlation and anticorrelation can be converted to each other using quantum temporal imaging.
Data Architecture for Sensor Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jan Ježek
2012-03-01
Full Text Available Fast development of hardware in recent years leads to the high availability of simple sensing devices at minimal cost. As a consequence, there is many of sensor networks nowadays. These networks can continuously produce a large amount of observed data including the location of measurement. Optimal data architecture for such propose is a challenging issue due to its large scale and spatio-temporal nature. The aim of this paper is to describe data architecture that was used in a particular solution for storage of sensor data. This solution is based on relation data model – concretely PostgreSQL and PostGIS. We will mention out experience from real world projects focused on car monitoring and project targeted on agriculture sensor networks. We will also shortly demonstrate the possibilities of client side API and the potential of other open source libraries that can be used for cartographic visualization (e.g. GeoServer. The main objective is to describe the strength and weakness of usage of relation database system for such propose and to introduce also alternative approaches based on NoSQL concept.
Bayesian inversion analysis of nonlinear dynamics in surface heterogeneous reactions.
Omori, Toshiaki; Kuwatani, Tatsu; Okamoto, Atsushi; Hukushima, Koji
2016-09-01
It is essential to extract nonlinear dynamics from time-series data as an inverse problem in natural sciences. We propose a Bayesian statistical framework for extracting nonlinear dynamics of surface heterogeneous reactions from sparse and noisy observable data. Surface heterogeneous reactions are chemical reactions with conjugation of multiple phases, and they have the intrinsic nonlinearity of their dynamics caused by the effect of surface-area between different phases. We adapt a belief propagation method and an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to partial observation problem, in order to simultaneously estimate the time course of hidden variables and the kinetic parameters underlying dynamics. The proposed belief propagation method is performed by using sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in order to estimate nonlinear dynamical system. Using our proposed method, we show that the rate constants of dissolution and precipitation reactions, which are typical examples of surface heterogeneous reactions, as well as the temporal changes of solid reactants and products, were successfully estimated only from the observable temporal changes in the concentration of the dissolved intermediate product.
Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics
Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron
2015-01-01
Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.
Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Poern, K.
1994-01-01
This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability
Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Niels Lovmand
2013-01-01
This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...
Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry
Groer, Peter G
2002-01-01
We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed comp...
Architecture and Intelligentsia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexander Rappaport
2015-08-01
Full Text Available The article observes intellectual and cultural level of architecture and its important functions in social process. Historical analysis shows constant decline of intellectual level of profession, as a reaction on radical changes in its social functions and mass scale, leading to degrading of individual critical reflection and growing dependence of architecture to political and economical bureaucracy.
Architecture and Intelligentsia
Alexander Rappaport
2015-01-01
The article observes intellectual and cultural level of architecture and its important functions in social process. Historical analysis shows constant decline of intellectual level of profession, as a reaction on radical changes in its social functions and mass scale, leading to degrading of individual critical reflection and growing dependence of architecture to political and economical bureaucracy.
OS Friendly Microprocessor Architecture
2017-04-01
NOTES Patrick La Fratta is now affiliated with Micron Technology, Inc., Boise, Idaho. 14. ABSTRACT We present an introduction to the patented ...Operating System Friendly Microprocessor Architecture (OSFA). The software framework to support the hardware-level security features is currently patent ...Army is assignee. OS Friendly Microprocessor Architecture. United States Patent 9122610. 2015 Sep. 2. Jungwirth P, inventor; US Army is assignee
Architecture, Drawing, Topology
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Meldgaard, Morten
This book presents contributions of drawing and text along with their many relationalities from ontology to history and vice versa in a range of reflections on architecture, drawing and topology. We hope to thereby indicate the potential of the theme in understanding not only the architecture of ...
Software Architecture Evolution
Barnes, Jeffrey M.
2013-01-01
Many software systems eventually undergo changes to their basic architectural structure. Such changes may be prompted by new feature requests, new quality attribute requirements, changing technology, or other reasons. Whatever the causes, architecture evolution is commonplace in real-world software projects. Today's software architects, however,…
Klenart, John
1991-01-01
The network architecture of FTS2000 is graphically depicted. A map of network A topology is provided, with interservice nodes. Next, the four basic element of the architecture is laid out. Then, the FTS2000 time line is reproduced. A list of equipment supporting FTS2000 dedicated transmissions is given. Finally, access alternatives are shown.
Adaptive Architectural Envelope
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Foged, Isak Worre; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning
2010-01-01
. The general scopes of this paper are to develop a new adaptive kinetic architectural structure, particularly a reconfigurable architectural structure which can transform body shape from planar geometries to hyper-surfaces using different control strategies, i.e. a transformation into more than one or two...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Marsh, Rob; Lauring, Michael
2011-01-01
Traditional low-energy architecture has not necessarily led to reduced energy consumption. A paradigm shift is proposed promoting pluralistic energy-saving strategies.......Traditional low-energy architecture has not necessarily led to reduced energy consumption. A paradigm shift is proposed promoting pluralistic energy-saving strategies....
Pereira Roders, A.R.; Post, J.M.; Erkelens, P.A.; Haugen, T.I.
2006-01-01
The architectural hierarchy of aims altered in the last decades. Quality and comfort have dethroned functionality! We are already familiar with the taxonomy – quality certification in the construction world; but in architectural designs, it is not common to evaluate scientifically, if the design has
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Henriette Bier
2014-07-01
Full Text Available The shift from mechanical to digital forces architects to reposition themselves: Architects generate digital information, which can be used not only in designing and fabricating building components but also in embedding behaviours into buildings. This implies that, similar to the way that industrial design and fabrication with its concepts of standardisation and serial production influenced modernist architecture, digital design and fabrication influences contemporary architecture. While standardisation focused on processes of rationalisation of form, mass-customisation as a new paradigm that replaces mass-production, addresses non-standard, complex, and flexible designs. Furthermore, knowledge about the designed object can be encoded in digital data pertaining not just to the geometry of a design but also to its physical or other behaviours within an environment. Digitally-driven architecture implies, therefore, not only digitally-designed and fabricated architecture, it also implies architecture – built form – that can be controlled, actuated, and animated by digital means.In this context, this sixth Footprint issue examines the influence of digital means as pragmatic and conceptual instruments for actuating architecture. The focus is not so much on computer-based systems for the development of architectural designs, but on architecture incorporating digital control, sensing, actuating, or other mechanisms that enable buildings to interact with their users and surroundings in real time in the real world through physical or sensory change and variation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Henriette Bier
2010-06-01
Full Text Available The shift from mechanical to digital forces architects to reposition themselves: Architects generate digital information, which can be used not only in designing and fabricating building components but also in embedding behaviours into buildings. This implies that, similar to the way that industrial design and fabrication with its concepts of standardisation and serial production influenced modernist architecture, digital design and fabrication influences contemporary architecture. While standardisation focused on processes of rationalisation of form, mass-customisation as a new paradigm that replaces mass-production, addresses non-standard, complex, and flexible designs. Furthermore, knowledge about the designed object can be encoded in digital data pertaining not just to the geometry of a design but also to its physical or other behaviours within an environment. Digitally-driven architecture implies, therefore, not only digitally-designed and fabricated architecture, it also implies architecture – built form – that can be controlled, actuated, and animated by digital means. In this context, this sixth Footprint issue examines the influence of digital means as pragmatic and conceptual instruments for actuating architecture. The focus is not so much on computer-based systems for the development of architectural designs, but on architecture incorporating digital control, sensing, actuating, or other mechanisms that enable buildings to interact with their users and surroundings in real time in the real world through physical or sensory change and variation.
Agarez, R.; Mota, N.
2015-01-01
For most architects, architecture is not only art, craft, passion and engagement; it is their ‘bread-and-butter’, too, and has been so since long. Architecture, consciously or unconsciously, is also the ‘bread-and-butter’ of communities across the world: successfully or unsuccessfully it is part of
Enterprise architecture intelligence
Veneberg, R.K.M.; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Bodenstaff, L.; Reichert, M.U.; Rinderle-Ma, S.; Grossmann, G.
2014-01-01
Combining enterprise architecture and operational data is complex (especially when considering the actual ‘matching’ of data with enterprise architecture objects), and little has been written on how to do this. Therefore, in this paper we aim to fill this gap and propose a method to combine
Information Architecture: Looking Ahead.
Rosenfeld, Louis
2002-01-01
Considers the future of the field of information architecture. Highlights include a comparison with the growth of the field of professional management; the design of information systems since the Web; more demanding users; the need for an interdisciplinary approach; and how to define information architecture. (LRW)
Architectural Physics: Lighting.
Hopkinson, R. G.
The author coordinates the many diverse branches of knowledge which have dealt with the field of lighting--physiology, psychology, engineering, physics, and architectural design. Part I, "The Elements of Architectural Physics", discusses the physiological aspects of lighting, visual performance, lighting design, calculations and measurements of…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baumeister, Ruth
2014-01-01
Jørn Utzon´s museum design for Asger Jorn´s collection in Silkeborg contextualized in the postwar context of an organic architecture.......Jørn Utzon´s museum design for Asger Jorn´s collection in Silkeborg contextualized in the postwar context of an organic architecture....
Globalization and Landscape Architecture
Robert R. Hewitt
2014-01-01
The literature review examines globalization and landscape architecture as discourse, samples its various meanings, and proposes methods to identify and contextualize its specific literature. Methodologically, the review surveys published articles and books by leading authors and within the WorldCat.org Database associated with landscape architecture and globalization, analyzing survey results for comprehensive concept...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Peder Pedersen, Claus
2018-01-01
Presentation of the PhD research at the Aarhus School of Architecture and selected PhD projects in relation to PhD exhibition at Godsbanen.......Presentation of the PhD research at the Aarhus School of Architecture and selected PhD projects in relation to PhD exhibition at Godsbanen....
Aesthetics of sustainable architecture
Lee, S.; Hill, G.; Sauerbruch, M.; Hutton, L.; Knowles, R.; Bothwell, K.; Brennan, J.; Jauslin, D.; Holzheu, H.; AlSayyad, N.; Arboleda, G.; Bharne, V.; Røstvik, H.; Kuma, K.; Sunikka-Blank, M.; Glaser, M.; Pero, E.; Sjkonsberg, M.; Teuffel, P.; Mangone, G.; Finocchiaro, L.; Hestnes, A.; Briggs, D.; Frampton, K.; Lee, S.
2011-01-01
The purpose of this book is to reveal, explore and further the debate on the aesthetic potentials of sustainable architecture and its practice. This book opens a new area of scholarship and discourse in the design and production of sustainable architecture, one that is based in aesthetics. The
Teaching American Indian Architecture.
Winchell, Dick
1991-01-01
Reviews "Native American Architecture," by Nabokov and Easton, an encyclopedic work that examines technology, climate, social structure, economics, religion, and history in relation to house design and the "meaning" of space among tribes of nine regions. Describes this book's use in a college course on Native American architecture. (SV)
A nonparametric Bayesian approach for genetic evaluation in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
South African Journal of Animal Science ... the Bayesian and Classical models, a Bayesian procedure is provided which allows these random ... data from the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud and data from a simulation experiment are utilized. >
Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Lawson, Andrew
2013-01-01
.... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...
Sparse reconstruction using distribution agnostic bayesian matching pursuit
Masood, Mudassir; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.
2013-01-01
A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for sparse signal recovery. This method performs Bayesian estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics
The Bayesian Approach to Association
Arora, N. S.
2017-12-01
The Bayesian approach to Association focuses mainly on quantifying the physics of the domain. In the case of seismic association for instance let X be the set of all significant events (above some threshold) and their attributes, such as location, time, and magnitude, Y1 be the set of detections that are caused by significant events and their attributes such as seismic phase, arrival time, amplitude etc., Y2 be the set of detections that are not caused by significant events, and finally Y be the set of observed detections We would now define the joint distribution P(X, Y1, Y2, Y) = P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2) ; where the last term simply states that Y1 and Y2 are a partitioning of Y. Given the above joint distribution the inference problem is simply to find the X, Y1, and Y2 that maximizes posterior probability P(X, Y1, Y2| Y) which reduces to maximizing P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2). In this expression P(X) captures our prior belief about event locations. P(Y1 | X) captures notions of travel time, residual error distributions as well as detection and mis-detection probabilities. While P(Y2) captures the false detection rate of our seismic network. The elegance of this approach is that all of the assumptions are stated clearly in the model for P(X), P(Y1|X) and P(Y2). The implementation of the inference is merely a by-product of this model. In contrast some of the other methods such as GA hide a number of assumptions in the implementation details of the inference - such as the so called "driver cells." The other important aspect of this approach is that all seismic knowledge including knowledge from other domains such as infrasound and hydroacoustic can be included in the same model. So, we don't need to separately account for misdetections or merge seismic and infrasound events as a separate step. Finally, it should be noted that the objective of automatic association is to simplify the job of humans who are publishing seismic bulletins based on this
Knowledge and Architectural Practice
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Verbeke, Johan
2017-01-01
of the level of research methods and will explain that the research methods and processes in creative practice research are very similar to grounded theory which is an established research method in the social sciences. Finally, an argument will be made for a more explicit research attitude in architectural......This paper focuses on the specific knowledge residing in architectural practice. It is based on the research of 35 PhD fellows in the ADAPT-r (Architecture, Design and Art Practice Training-research) project. The ADAPT-r project innovates architectural research in combining expertise from academia...... and from practice in order to highlight and extract the specific kind of knowledge which resides and is developed in architectural practice (creative practice research). The paper will discuss three ongoing and completed PhD projects and focusses on the outcomes and their contribution to the field...
Product Architecture Modularity Strategies
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mikkola, Juliana Hsuan
2003-01-01
The focus of this paper is to integrate various perspectives on product architecture modularity into a general framework, and also to propose a way to measure the degree of modularization embedded in product architectures. Various trade-offs between modular and integral product architectures...... and how components and interfaces influence the degree of modularization are considered. In order to gain a better understanding of product architecture modularity as a strategy, a theoretical framework and propositions are drawn from various academic literature sources. Based on the literature review......, the following key elements of product architecture are identified: components (standard and new-to-the-firm), interfaces (standardization and specification), degree of coupling, and substitutability. A mathematical function, termed modularization function, is introduced to measure the degree of modularization...
Hürol, Yonca
2009-06-01
The title of this article is adapted from Theodor W. Adorno's famous dictum: 'To write poetry after Auschwitz is barbaric.' After the catastrophic earthquake in Kocaeli, Turkey on the 17th of August 1999, in which more than 40,000 people died or were lost, Necdet Teymur, who was then the dean of the Faculty of Architecture of the Middle East Technical University, referred to Adorno in one of his 'earthquake poems' and asked: 'Is architecture possible after 17th of August?' The main objective of this article is to interpret Teymur's question in respect of its connection to Adorno's philosophy with a view to make a contribution to the politics and ethics of architecture in Turkey. Teymur's question helps in providing a new interpretation of a critical approach to architecture and architectural technology through Adorno's philosophy. The paper also presents a discussion of Adorno's dictum, which serves for a better understanding of its universality/particularity.
Architecture in the Islamic Civilization: Muslim Building or Islamic Architecture
Yassin, Ayat Ali; Utaberta, Dr. Nangkula
2012-01-01
The main problem of the theory in the arena of islamic architecture is affected by some of its Westernthoughts, and stereotyping the islamic architecture according to Western thoughts; this leads to the breakdownof the foundations in the islamic architecture. It is a myth that islamic architecture is subjected to theinfluence from foreign architectures. This paper will highlight the dialectical concept of islamic architecture ormuslim buildings and the areas of recognition in islamic architec...
Temporal dynamics and neural architecture of action selection
Buc Calderon, Cristian
2016-01-01
In this thesis we pitted two views of action selection. On the one hand, a traditional view suggesting that action selection emerges from a sequential process whereby perception, cognition and action proceed serially and are subtended by distinct brain areas. On the other hand, an ecological view (formalized in the affordance competition hypothesis) advocating that action selection stems from the parallel implementation of potential action plans. In parallel, the competition between these act...
Minimalism in architecture: Abstract conceptualization of architecture
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vasilski Dragana
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Minimalism in architecture contains the idea of the minimum as a leading creative tend to be considered and interpreted in working through phenomena of empathy and abstraction. In the Western culture, the root of this idea is found in empathy of Wilhelm Worringer and abstraction of Kasimir Malevich. In his dissertation, 'Abstraction and Empathy' Worringer presented his thesis on the psychology of style through which he explained the two opposing basic forms: abstraction and empathy. His conclusion on empathy as a psychological basis of observation expression is significant due to the verbal congruence with contemporary minimalist expression. His intuition was enhenced furthermore by figure of Malevich. Abstraction, as an expression of inner unfettered inspiration, has played a crucial role in the development of modern art and architecture of the twentieth century. Abstraction, which is one of the basic methods of learning in psychology (separating relevant from irrelevant features, Carl Jung is used to discover ideas. Minimalism in architecture emphasizes the level of abstraction to which the individual functions are reduced. Different types of abstraction are present: in the form as well as function of the basic elements: walls and windows. The case study is an example of Sou Fujimoto who is unequivocal in its commitment to the autonomy of abstract conceptualization of architecture.
Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pulkkinen, U.
1989-01-01
Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed
Justifying Objective Bayesianism on Predicate Languages
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jürgen Landes
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Objective Bayesianism says that the strengths of one’s beliefs ought to be probabilities, calibrated to physical probabilities insofar as one has evidence of them, and otherwise sufficiently equivocal. These norms of belief are often explicated using the maximum entropy principle. In this paper we investigate the extent to which one can provide a unified justification of the objective Bayesian norms in the case in which the background language is a first-order predicate language, with a view to applying the resulting formalism to inductive logic. We show that the maximum entropy principle can be motivated largely in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss.
Motion Learning Based on Bayesian Program Learning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cheng Meng-Zhen
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The concept of virtual human has been highly anticipated since the 1980s. By using computer technology, Human motion simulation could generate authentic visual effect, which could cheat human eyes visually. Bayesian Program Learning train one or few motion data, generate new motion data by decomposing and combining. And the generated motion will be more realistic and natural than the traditional one.In this paper, Motion learning based on Bayesian program learning allows us to quickly generate new motion data, reduce workload, improve work efficiency, reduce the cost of motion capture, and improve the reusability of data.
Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten
2013-01-01
an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...
Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adam Gh.
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1–16 (2012] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule, mesoscopic (Simpson rule, and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision. Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.
Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.
1998-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics
Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide
Haug, Anton J
2012-01-01
A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation
Thom, Maria; Eriksson, Sofia; Martinian, Lillian; Caboclo, Luis O; McEvoy, Andrew W; Duncan, John S; Sisodiya, Sanjay M
2009-08-01
Widespread changes involving neocortical and mesial temporal lobe structures can be present in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy and hippocampal sclerosis. The incidence, pathology, and clinical significance of neocortical temporal lobe sclerosis (TLS) are not well characterized. We identified TLS in 30 of 272 surgically treated cases of hippocampal sclerosis. Temporal lobe sclerosis was defined by variable reduction of neurons from cortical layers II/III and laminar gliosis; it was typically accompanied by additional architectural abnormalities of layer II, that is, abnormal neuronal orientation and aggregation. Quantitative analysis including tessellation methods for the distribution of layer II neurons supported these observations. In 40% of cases, there was a gradient of TLS with more severe involvement toward the temporal pole, possibly signifying involvement of hippocampal projection pathways. There was a history of a febrile seizure as an initial precipitating injury in 73% of patients with TLS compared with 36% without TLS; no other clinical differences between TLS and non-TLS cases were identified. Temporal lobe sclerosis was not evident preoperatively by neuroimaging. No obvious effect of TLS on seizure outcome was noted after temporal lobe resection; 73% became seizure-free at 2-year follow-up. In conclusion, approximately 11% of surgically treated hippocampal sclerosis is accompanied by TLS. Temporal lobe sclerosis is likely an acquired process with accompanying reorganizational dysplasia and an extension of mesial temporal sclerosis rather than a separate pathological entity.
Urban architecture in urban renewal
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Holmgren, Steen; Svensson, Ole
2001-01-01
and without obvious architectural value. These issues raise pertinent questions: what urban architectural problems and qualities exist in the complex, inner suburbs? What differences exist between professionals' and residents' perceptions and assessments of urban architecture? How can a shared language...
A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri
2013-01-01
representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...
A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research
Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G
2014-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,
A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research
van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.
2014-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,
A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs
Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.
2012-01-01
This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA
Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.
Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom
2013-02-01
Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.
Uncertainty Quantification Bayesian Framework for Porous Media Flows
Demyanov, V.; Christie, M.; Erbas, D.
2005-12-01
Uncertainty quantification is an increasingly important aspect of many areas of applied science, where the challenge is to make reliable predictions about the performance of complex physical systems in the absence of complete or reliable data. Predicting flows of fluids through undersurface reservoirs is an example of a complex system where accuracy in prediction is needed (e.g. in oil industry it is essential for financial reasons). Simulation of fluid flow in oil reservoirs is usually carried out using large commercially written finite difference simulators solving conservation equations describing the multi-phase flow through the porous reservoir rocks, which is a highly computationally expensive task. This work examines a Bayesian Framework for uncertainty quantification in porous media flows that uses a stochastic sampling algorithm to generate models that match observed time series data. The framework is flexible for a wide range of general physical/statistical parametric models, which are used to describe the underlying hydro-geological process in its temporal dynamics. The approach is based on exploration of the parameter space and update of the prior beliefs about what the most likely model definitions are. Optimization problem for a highly parametric physical model usually have multiple solutions, which impact the uncertainty of the made predictions. Stochastic search algorithm (e.g. genetic algorithm) allows to identify multiple "good enough" models in the parameter space. Furthermore, inference of the generated model ensemble via MCMC based algorithm evaluates the posterior probability of the generated models and quantifies uncertainty of the predictions. Machine learning algorithm - Artificial Neural Networks - are used to speed up the identification of regions in parameter space where good matches to observed data can be found. Adaptive nature of ANN allows to develop different ways of integrating them into the Bayesian framework: as direct time
Travels in Architectural History
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Davide Deriu
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Travel is a powerful force in shaping the perception of the modern world and plays an ever-growing role within architectural and urban cultures. Inextricably linked to political and ideological issues, travel redefines places and landscapes through new transport infrastructures and buildings. Architecture, in turn, is reconstructed through visual and textual narratives produced by scores of modern travellers — including writers and artists along with architects themselves. In the age of the camera, travel is bound up with new kinds of imaginaries; private records and recollections often mingle with official, stereotyped views, as the value of architectural heritage increasingly rests on the mechanical reproduction of its images. Whilst students often learn about architectural history through image collections, the place of the journey in the formation of the architect itself shifts. No longer a lone and passionate antiquarian or an itinerant designer, the modern architect eagerly hops on buses, trains, and planes in pursuit of personal as well as professional interests. Increasingly built on a presumption of mobility, architectural culture integrates travel into cultural debates and design experiments. By addressing such issues from a variety of perspectives, this collection, a special 'Architectural Histories' issue on travel, prompts us to rethink the mobile conditions in which architecture has historically been produced and received.
Towards General Temporal Aggregation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Boehlen, Michael H.; Gamper, Johann; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard
2008-01-01
associated with the management of temporal data. Indeed, temporal aggregation is complex and among the most difficult, and thus interesting, temporal functionality to support. This paper presents a general framework for temporal aggregation that accommodates existing kinds of aggregation, and it identifies...
On Detailing in Contemporary Architecture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Claus; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning
2010-01-01
Details in architecture have a significant influence on how architecture is experienced. One can touch the materials and analyse the detailing - thus details give valuable information about the architectural scheme as a whole. The absence of perceptual stimulation like details and materiality...... / tactility can blur the meaning of the architecture and turn it into an empty statement. The present paper will outline detailing in contemporary architecture and discuss the issue with respect to architectural quality. Architectural cases considered as sublime piece of architecture will be presented...
Fractionated Spacecraft Architectures Seeding Study
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Mathieu, Charlotte; Weigel, Annalisa
2006-01-01
.... Models were developed from a customer-centric perspective to assess different fractionated spacecraft architectures relative to traditional spacecraft architectures using multi-attribute analysis...
Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.
Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis
2016-08-01
Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ata Khan
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Intelligent transportation systems (ITS are gaining acceptance around the world and the connected vehicle component of ITS is recognized as a high priority research and development area in many technologically advanced countries. Connected vehicles are expected to have the capability of safe, efficient and eco-driving operations whether these are under human control or in the adaptive machine control mode of operations. The race is on to design the capability to operate in connected traffic environment. The operational requirements can be met with cognitive vehicle design features made possible by advances in artificial intelligence-supported methodology, improved understanding of human factors, and advances in communication technology. This paper describes cognitive features and their information system requirements. The architecture of an information system is presented that supports the features of the cognitive connected vehicle. For better focus, information processing capabilities are specified and the role of Bayesian artificial intelligence is defined for data fusion. Example applications illustrate the role of information systems in integrating intelligent technology, Bayesian artificial intelligence, and abstracted human factors. Concluding remarks highlight the role of the information system and Bayesian artificial intelligence in the design of a new generation of cognitive connected vehicle.
cudaBayesreg: Parallel Implementation of a Bayesian Multilevel Model for fMRI Data Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adelino R. Ferreira da Silva
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Graphic processing units (GPUs are rapidly gaining maturity as powerful general parallel computing devices. A key feature in the development of modern GPUs has been the advancement of the programming model and programming tools. Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA is a software platform for massively parallel high-performance computing on Nvidia many-core GPUs. In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, the volume of the data to be processed, and the type of statistical analysis to perform call for high-performance computing strategies. In this work, we present the main features of the R-CUDA package cudaBayesreg which implements in CUDA the core of a Bayesian multilevel model for the analysis of brain fMRI data. The statistical model implements a Gibbs sampler for multilevel/hierarchical linear models with a normal prior. The main contribution for the increased performance comes from the use of separate threads for fitting the linear regression model at each voxel in parallel. The R-CUDA implementation of the Bayesian model proposed here has been able to reduce significantly the run-time processing of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulations used in Bayesian fMRI data analyses. Presently, cudaBayesreg is only configured for Linux systems with Nvidia CUDA support.
Improved head direction command classification using an optimised Bayesian neural network.
Nguyen, Son T; Nguyen, Hung T; Taylor, Philip B; Middleton, James
2006-01-01
Assistive technologies have recently emerged to improve the quality of life of severely disabled people by enhancing their independence in daily activities. Since many of those individuals have limited or non-existing control from the neck downward, alternative hands-free input modalities have become very important for these people to access assistive devices. In hands-free control, head movement has been proved to be a very effective user interface as it can provide a comfortable, reliable and natural way to access the device. Recently, neural networks have been shown to be useful not only for real-time pattern recognition but also for creating user-adaptive models. Since multi-layer perceptron neural networks trained using standard back-propagation may cause poor generalisation, the Bayesian technique has been proposed to improve the generalisation and robustness of these networks. This paper describes the use of Bayesian neural networks in developing a hands-free wheelchair control system. The experimental results show that with the optimised architecture, classification Bayesian neural networks can detect head commands of wheelchair users accurately irrespective to their levels of injuries.
Classification of behavior using unsupervised temporal neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adair, K.L.
1998-03-01
Adding recurrent connections to unsupervised neural networks used for clustering creates a temporal neural network which clusters a sequence of inputs as they appear over time. The model presented combines the Jordan architecture with the unsupervised learning technique Adaptive Resonance Theory, Fuzzy ART. The combination yields a neural network capable of quickly clustering sequential pattern sequences as the sequences are generated. The applicability of the architecture is illustrated through a facility monitoring problem
Architectural Knitted Surfaces
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mossé, Aurélie
2010-01-01
WGSN reports from the Architectural Knitted Surfaces workshop recently held at ShenkarCollege of Engineering and Design, Tel Aviv, which offered a cutting-edge insight into interactive knitted surfaces. With the increasing role of smart textiles in architecture, the Architectural Knitted Surfaces...... workshop brought together architects and interior and textile designers to highlight recent developments in intelligent knitting. The five-day workshop was led by architects Ayelet Karmon and Mette Ramsgaard Thomsen, together with Amir Cang and Eyal Sheffer from the Knitting Laboratory, in collaboration...
Towards Adaptive Evolutionary Architecture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bak, Sebastian HOlt; Rask, Nina; Risi, Sebastian
2016-01-01
This paper presents first results from an interdisciplinary project, in which the fields of architecture, philosophy and artificial life are combined to explore possible futures of architecture. Through an interactive evolutionary installation, called EvoCurtain, we investigate aspects of how...... to the development of designs tailored to the individual preferences of inhabitants, changing the roles of architects and designers entirely. Architecture-as-it-could-be is a philosophical approach conducted through artistic methods to anticipate the technological futures of human-centered development within...
Computer architecture technology trends
1991-01-01
Please note this is a Short Discount publication. This year's edition of Computer Architecture Technology Trends analyses the trends which are taking place in the architecture of computing systems today. Due to the sheer number of different applications to which computers are being applied, there seems no end to the different adoptions which proliferate. There are, however, some underlying trends which appear. Decision makers should be aware of these trends when specifying architectures, particularly for future applications. This report is fully revised and updated and provides insight in
Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha
Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua
2013-01-01
The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…
Bayesian decision theory : A simple toy problem
van Erp, H.R.N.; Linger, R.O.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.
2016-01-01
We give here a comparison of the expected outcome theory, the expected utility theory, and the Bayesian decision theory, by way of a simple numerical toy problem in which we look at the investment willingness to avert a high impact low probability event. It will be found that for this toy problem
Optimal Detection under the Restricted Bayesian Criterion
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shujun Liu
2017-07-01
Full Text Available This paper aims to find a suitable decision rule for a binary composite hypothesis-testing problem with a partial or coarse prior distribution. To alleviate the negative impact of the information uncertainty, a constraint is considered that the maximum conditional risk cannot be greater than a predefined value. Therefore, the objective of this paper becomes to find the optimal decision rule to minimize the Bayes risk under the constraint. By applying the Lagrange duality, the constrained optimization problem is transformed to an unconstrained optimization problem. In doing so, the restricted Bayesian decision rule is obtained as a classical Bayesian decision rule corresponding to a modified prior distribution. Based on this transformation, the optimal restricted Bayesian decision rule is analyzed and the corresponding algorithm is developed. Furthermore, the relation between the Bayes risk and the predefined value of the constraint is also discussed. The Bayes risk obtained via the restricted Bayesian decision rule is a strictly decreasing and convex function of the constraint on the maximum conditional risk. Finally, the numerical results including a detection example are presented and agree with the theoretical results.
Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.
Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C
2018-05-01
Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A strongly quasiconvex PAC-Bayesian bound
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thiemann, Niklas; Igel, Christian; Wintenberger, Olivier
2017-01-01
We propose a new PAC-Bayesian bound and a way of constructing a hypothesis space, so that the bound is convex in the posterior distribution and also convex in a trade-off parameter between empirical performance of the posterior distribution and its complexity. The complexity is measured by the Ku...
Multisnapshot Sparse Bayesian Learning for DOA
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gerstoft, Peter; Mecklenbrauker, Christoph F.; Xenaki, Angeliki
2016-01-01
The directions of arrival (DOA) of plane waves are estimated from multisnapshot sensor array data using sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). The prior for the source amplitudes is assumed independent zero-mean complex Gaussian distributed with hyperparameters, the unknown variances (i.e., the source...
Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty
Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha
2018-04-01
The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.
Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting
Matthies, Hermann G.
2016-02-13
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.
Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing
Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,
2016-01-01
This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for
Bayesian Averaging is Well-Temperated
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kai
2000-01-01
Bayesian predictions are stochastic just like predictions of any other inference scheme that generalize from a finite sample. While a simple variational argument shows that Bayes averaging is generalization optimal given that the prior matches the teacher parameter distribution the situation is l...
Robust bayesian inference of generalized Pareto distribution ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
En utilisant une etude exhaustive de Monte Carlo, nous prouvons que, moyennant une fonction perte generalisee adequate, on peut construire un estimateur Bayesien robuste du modele. Key words: Bayesian estimation; Extreme value; Generalized Fisher information; Gener- alized Pareto distribution; Monte Carlo; ...
Evidence Estimation for Bayesian Partially Observed MRFs
Chen, Y.; Welling, M.
2013-01-01
Bayesian estimation in Markov random fields is very hard due to the intractability of the partition function. The introduction of hidden units makes the situation even worse due to the presence of potentially very many modes in the posterior distribution. For the first time we propose a
Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting
Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar; Rosić, Bojana V.; Litvinenko, Alexander; Pajonk, Oliver
2016-01-01
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.
A Bayesian perspective on some replacement strategies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazzuchi, Thomas A.; Soyer, Refik
1996-01-01
In this paper we present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for determining optimal replacement strategies. This approach enables us to formally incorporate, express, and update our uncertainty when determining optimal replacement strategies. We develop relevant expressions for both the block replacement protocol with minimal repair and the age replacement protocol and illustrate the use of our approach with real data
Comparison between Fisherian and Bayesian approach to ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... of its simplicity and optimality properties is normally used for two group cases. However, Bayesian approach is found to be better than Fisher's approach because of its low misclassification error rate. Keywords: variance-covariance matrices, centroids, prior probability, mahalanobis distance, probability of misclassification ...
BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)
2016-11-01
The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.
Non-Linear Approximation of Bayesian Update
Litvinenko, Alexander
2016-01-01
We develop a non-linear approximation of expensive Bayesian formula. This non-linear approximation is applied directly to Polynomial Chaos Coefficients. In this way, we avoid Monte Carlo sampling and sampling error. We can show that the famous Kalman Update formula is a particular case of this update.
Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eric D. Johnson
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.
A Bayesian Approach to Interactive Retrieval
Tague, Jean M.
1973-01-01
A probabilistic model for interactive retrieval is presented. Bayesian statistical decision theory principles are applied: use of prior and sample information about the relationship of document descriptions to query relevance; maximization of expected value of a utility function, to the problem of optimally restructuring search strategies in an…
Forecasting nuclear power supply with Bayesian autoregression
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Beck, R.; Solow, J.L.
1994-01-01
We explore the possibility of forecasting the quarterly US generation of electricity from nuclear power using a Bayesian autoregression model. In terms of forecasting accuracy, this approach compares favorably with both the Department of Energy's current forecasting methodology and their more recent efforts using ARIMA models, and it is extremely easy and inexpensive to implement. (author)
A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Factor Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Piatek, Rémi; Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros
2018-01-01
This paper introduces a new approach for the inference of non-Gaussian factor models based on Bayesian nonparametric methods. It relaxes the usual normality assumption on the latent factors, widely used in practice, which is too restrictive in many settings. Our approach, on the contrary, does no...
Hierarchical Bayesian Models of Subtask Learning
Anglim, Jeromy; Wynton, Sarah K. A.
2015-01-01
The current study used Bayesian hierarchical methods to challenge and extend previous work on subtask learning consistency. A general model of individual-level subtask learning was proposed focusing on power and exponential functions with constraints to test for inconsistency. To study subtask learning, we developed a novel computer-based booking…
Non-Linear Approximation of Bayesian Update
Litvinenko, Alexander
2016-06-23
We develop a non-linear approximation of expensive Bayesian formula. This non-linear approximation is applied directly to Polynomial Chaos Coefficients. In this way, we avoid Monte Carlo sampling and sampling error. We can show that the famous Kalman Update formula is a particular case of this update.
Bayesian approach and application to operation safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.
2003-01-01
The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)
Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C
2011-08-01
The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls
Architectures of prototypes and architectural prototyping
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Klaus Marius; Christensen, Michael; Sandvad, Elmer
1998-01-01
together as a team, but developed a prototype that more than fulfilled the expectations of the shipping company. The prototype should: - complete the first major phase within 10 weeks, - be highly vertical illustrating future work practice, - continuously live up to new requirements from prototyping......This paper reports from experience obtained through development of a prototype of a global customer service system in a project involving a large shipping company and a university research group. The research group had no previous knowledge of the complex business of shipping and had never worked...... sessions with users, - evolve over a long period of time to contain more functionality - allow for 6-7 developers working intensively in parallel. Explicit focus on the software architecture and letting the architecture evolve with the prototype played a major role in resolving these conflicting...
Architecture for a 1-GHz Digital RADAR
Mallik, Udayan
2011-01-01
An architecture for a Direct RF-digitization Type Digital Mode RADAR was developed at GSFC in 2008. Two variations of a basic architecture were developed for use on RADAR imaging missions using aircraft and spacecraft. Both systems can operate with a pulse repetition rate up to 10 MHz with 8 received RF samples per pulse repetition interval, or at up to 19 kHz with 4K received RF samples per pulse repetition interval. The first design describes a computer architecture for a Continuous Mode RADAR transceiver with a real-time signal processing and display architecture. The architecture can operate at a high pulse repetition rate without interruption for an infinite amount of time. The second design describes a smaller and less costly burst mode RADAR that can transceive high pulse repetition rate RF signals without interruption for up to 37 seconds. The burst-mode RADAR was designed to operate on an off-line signal processing paradigm. The temporal distribution of RF samples acquired and reported to the RADAR processor remains uniform and free of distortion in both proposed architectures. The majority of the RADAR's electronics is implemented in digital CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor), and analog circuits are restricted to signal amplification operations and analog to digital conversion. An implementation of the proposed systems will create a 1-GHz, Direct RF-digitization Type, L-Band Digital RADAR--the highest band achievable for Nyquist Rate, Direct RF-digitization Systems that do not implement an electronic IF downsample stage (after the receiver signal amplification stage), using commercially available off-the-shelf integrated circuits.
Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull
Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.
Displaced calibration of PM10 measurements using spatio-temporal models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniela Cocchi
2007-12-01
Full Text Available PM10 monitoring networks are equipped with heterogeneous samplers. Some of these samplers are known to underestimate true levels of concentrations (non-reference samplers. In this paper we propose a hierarchical spatio-temporal Bayesian model for the calibration of measurements recorded using non-reference samplers, by borrowing strength from non co-located reference sampler measurements.
Probabilistic M/EEG source imaging from sparse spatio-temporal event structure
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stahlhut, Carsten; Attias, Hagai T.; Wipf, David
While MEG and EEG source imaging methods have to tackle a severely ill-posed problem their success can be stated as their ability to constrain the solutions using appropriate priors. In this paper we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model facilitating spatio-temporal patterns through the use of bo...
Bayesian Mars for uncertainty quantification in stochastic transport problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stripling, Hayes F.; McClarren, Ryan G.
2011-01-01
We present a method for estimating solutions to partial differential equations with uncertain parameters using a modification of the Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (BMARS) emulator. The BMARS algorithm uses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to construct a basis function composed of polynomial spline functions, for which derivatives and integrals are straightforward to compute. We use these calculations and a modification of the curve-fitting BMARS algorithm to search for a basis function (response surface) which, in combination with its derivatives/integrals, satisfies a governing differential equation and specified boundary condition. We further show that this fit can be improved by enforcing a conservation or other physics-based constraint. Our results indicate that estimates to solutions of simple first order partial differential equations (without uncertainty) can be efficiently computed with very little regression error. We then extend the method to estimate uncertainties in the solution to a pure absorber transport problem in a medium with uncertain cross-section. We describe and compare two strategies for propagating the uncertain cross-section through the BMARS algorithm; the results from each method are in close comparison with analytic results. We discuss the scalability of the algorithm to parallel architectures and the applicability of the two strategies to larger problems with more degrees of uncertainty. (author)
Analysis of Architecture Pattern Usage in Legacy System Architecture Documentation
Harrison, Neil B.; Avgeriou, Paris
2008-01-01
Architecture patterns are an important tool in architectural design. However, while many architecture patterns have been identified, there is little in-depth understanding of their actual use in software architectures. For instance, there is no overview of how many patterns are used per system or
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sugár Viktória
2017-04-01
Full Text Available The adaptation of the forms and phenomena of nature is not a recent concept. Observation of natural mechanisms has been a primary source of innovation since prehistoric ages, which can be perceived through the history of architecture. Currently, this idea is coming to the front again through sustainable architecture and adaptive design. Investigating natural innovations and the clear-outness of evolution during the 20th century led to the creation of a separate scientific discipline, Bionics. Architecture and Bionics are strongly related to each other, since the act of building is as old as the human civilization - moreover its first formal and structural source was obviously the surrounding environment. Present paper discusses the definition of Bionics and its connection with the architecture.
DSP Architecture Design Essentials
Marković, Dejan
2012-01-01
In DSP Architecture Design Essentials, authors Dejan Marković and Robert W. Brodersen cover a key subject for the successful realization of DSP algorithms for communications, multimedia, and healthcare applications. The book addresses the need for DSP architecture design that maps advanced DSP algorithms to hardware in the most power- and area-efficient way. The key feature of this text is a design methodology based on a high-level design model that leads to hardware implementation with minimum power and area. The methodology includes algorithm-level considerations such as automated word-length reduction and intrinsic data properties that can be leveraged to reduce hardware complexity. From a high-level data-flow graph model, an architecture exploration methodology based on linear programming is used to create an array of architectural solutions tailored to the underlying hardware technology. The book is supplemented with online material: bibliography, design examples, CAD tutorials and custom software.
METRIC context unit architecture
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Simpson, R.O.
1988-01-01
METRIC is an architecture for a simple but powerful Reduced Instruction Set Computer (RISC). Its speed comes from the simultaneous processing of several instruction streams, with instructions from the various streams being dispatched into METRIC's execution pipeline as they become available for execution. The pipeline is thus kept full, with a mix of instructions for several contexts in execution at the same time. True parallel programming is supported within a single execution unit, the METRIC Context Unit. METRIC's architecture provides for expansion through the addition of multiple Context Units and of specialized Functional Units. The architecture thus spans a range of size and performance from a single-chip microcomputer up through large and powerful multiprocessors. This research concentrates on the specification of the METRIC Context Unit at the architectural level. Performance tradeoffs made during METRIC's design are discussed, and projections of METRIC's performance are made based on simulation studies.
Flexible weapons architecture design
Pyant, William C., III
Present day air-delivered weapons are of a closed architecture, with little to no ability to tailor the weapon for the individual engagement. The closed architectures require weaponeers to make the target fit the weapon instead of fitting the individual weapons to a target. The concept of a flexible weapons aims to modularize weapons design using an open architecture shell into which different modules are inserted to achieve the desired target fractional damage while reducing cost and civilian casualties. This thesis shows that the architecture design factors of damage mechanism, fusing, weapons weight, guidance, and propulsion are significant in enhancing weapon performance objectives, and would benefit from modularization. Additionally, this thesis constructs an algorithm that can be used to design a weapon set for a particular target class based on these modular components.
Border information flow architecture
2006-04-01
This brochure describes the Border Information Flow Architecture (BIFA). The Transportation Border Working Group, a bi-national group that works to enhance coordination and planning between the United States and Canada, identified collaboration on th...
Layered Fault Management Architecture
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Sztipanovits, Janos
2004-01-01
... UAVs or Organic Air Vehicles. The approach of this effort was to analyze fault management requirements of formation flight for fleets of UAVs, and develop a layered fault management architecture which demonstrates significant...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Mads Dines
Present research is revolving around the design process and the use of digital applications to support the design process among architects. This work is made in relation to the current discussions about sustainable architecture and the increased focus on energy consumption and the comfort in our...... and understanding of spaces in buildings can change significantly and instead of the creation of frozen geometrical spaces, thermal spaces can be created as it is suggested in meteorological architecture where functions are distributed in relation to temperature gradients. This creates an interesting contrast......-introducing an increased adaptability in the architecture can be a part of re-defining the environmental agenda and re-establish a link between the environment of the site and the environment of the architecture and through that an increased appreciation of the sensuous space here framed in discussions about thermal...
The toolbus coordination architecture
Bergstra, J.A.; Klint, P.
1996-01-01
Building large, heterogeneous, distributed software systems poses serious problems for the software engineer; achieving interoperability of software systems is still a major challenge. We describe an experiment in designing a generic software architecture for solving these problems. To get
Service Modularity and Architecture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brax, Saara A.; Bask, Anu; Hsuan, Juliana
2017-01-01
, platform-based and mass-customized service business models, comparative research designs, customer perspectives and service experience, performance in context of modular services, empirical evidence of benefits and challenges, architectural innovation in services, modularization in multi-provider contexts......Purpose: Services are highly important in a world economy which has increasingly become service driven. There is a growing need to better understand the possibilities for, and requirements of, designing modular service architectures. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on the roots...... of the emerging research stream on service modularity, provide a concise overview of existing work on the subject, and outline an agenda for future research on service modularity and architecture. The articles in the special issue offer four diverse sets of research on service modularity and architecture. Design...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gerhard Moser
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Gene discovery, estimation of heritability captured by SNP arrays, inference on genetic architecture and prediction analyses of complex traits are usually performed using different statistical models and methods, leading to inefficiency and loss of power. Here we use a Bayesian mixture model that simultaneously allows variant discovery, estimation of genetic variance explained by all variants and prediction of unobserved phenotypes in new samples. We apply the method to simulated data of quantitative traits and Welcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC data on disease and show that it provides accurate estimates of SNP-based heritability, produces unbiased estimators of risk in new samples, and that it can estimate genetic architecture by partitioning variation across hundreds to thousands of SNPs. We estimated that, depending on the trait, 2,633 to 9,411 SNPs explain all of the SNP-based heritability in the WTCCC diseases. The majority of those SNPs (>96% had small effects, confirming a substantial polygenic component to common diseases. The proportion of the SNP-based variance explained by large effects (each SNP explaining 1% of the variance varied markedly between diseases, ranging from almost zero for bipolar disorder to 72% for type 1 diabetes. Prediction analyses demonstrate that for diseases with major loci, such as type 1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis, Bayesian methods outperform profile scoring or mixed model approaches.
Models in architectural design
Pauwels, Pieter
2017-01-01
Whereas architects and construction specialists used to rely mainly on sketches and physical models as representations of their own cognitive design models, they rely now more and more on computer models. Parametric models, generative models, as-built models, building information models (BIM), and so forth, they are used daily by any practitioner in architectural design and construction. Although processes of abstraction and the actual architectural model-based reasoning itself of course rema...
Artificial cognition architectures
Crowder, James A; Friess, Shelli A
2013-01-01
The goal of this book is to establish the foundation, principles, theory, and concepts that are the backbone of real, autonomous Artificial Intelligence. Presented here are some basic human intelligence concepts framed for Artificial Intelligence systems. These include concepts like Metacognition and Metamemory, along with architectural constructs for Artificial Intelligence versions of human brain functions like the prefrontal cortex. Also presented are possible hardware and software architectures that lend themselves to learning, reasoning, and self-evolution
Religious Architecture : Anthropological Perspectives
2013-01-01
Religious Architecture: Anthropological Perspectives develops an anthropological perspective on modern religious architecture, including mosques, churches and synagogues. Borrowing from a range of theoretical perspectives on space-making and material religion, this volume looks at how religious buildings take their place in opposition to the secular surroundings, how they, as evocations of the sublime, help believers to move beyond the boundaries of modern subjectivity, and how they, in their...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tind Kristensen, Eva; Friis Møller, Winnie; Rotne, Georg
Climate and Architecture analyserer klimaets rolle i arkitekturen. Intentionen med bogen er at pege på nogle af de mange muligheder for bygningers klimaregulering, som et mere detaljeret studie af de lokale klimatiske forhold og den stedlige byggeskik tilbyder.......Climate and Architecture analyserer klimaets rolle i arkitekturen. Intentionen med bogen er at pege på nogle af de mange muligheder for bygningers klimaregulering, som et mere detaljeret studie af de lokale klimatiske forhold og den stedlige byggeskik tilbyder....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Skousbøll, Karin Merete
2006-01-01
With the author's Scandinavian viewpoint the aim of this book has been an investigation into contemporary Greek architecture and at the same time providing an understanding for its essential characteristics based on the historic, cultural heritage of Hellas.......With the author's Scandinavian viewpoint the aim of this book has been an investigation into contemporary Greek architecture and at the same time providing an understanding for its essential characteristics based on the historic, cultural heritage of Hellas....
Essential software architecture
Gorton, Ian
2011-01-01
Job titles like ""Technical Architect"" and ""Chief Architect"" nowadays abound in software industry, yet many people suspect that ""architecture"" is one of the most overused and least understood terms in professional software development. Gorton's book tries to resolve this dilemma. It concisely describes the essential elements of knowledge and key skills required to be a software architect. The explanations encompass the essentials of architecture thinking, practices, and supporting technologies. They range from a general understanding of structure and quality attributes through technical i
Sensitivity Study on Availability of I&C Components Using Bayesian Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rahman Khalil Ur
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The objective of this study is to find out the impact of instrumentation and control (I&C components on the availability of I&C systems in terms of sensitivity analysis using Bayesian network. The analysis has been performed on I&C architecture of reactor protection system. The analysis results would be applied to develop I&C architecture which will meet the desire reliability features and save cost. RPS architecture unavailability P(x=0 and availability P(x=1 were estimated to 6.1276E-05 and 9.9994E-01 for failure (0 and perfect (1 states, respectively. The impact of I&C components on overall system risk has been studied in terms of risk achievement worth (RAW and risk reduction worth (RRW. It is found that circuit breaker failure (TCB, bi-stable processor (BP, sensor transmitter (TR, and pressure transmitter (PT have high impact on risk. The study concludes and recommends that circuit breaker bi-stable processor should be given more consideration while designing I&C architecture.
Bayesian inference for multivariate point processes observed at sparsely distributed times
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper; Aukema, B.H.
We consider statistical and computational aspects of simulation-based Bayesian inference for a multivariate point process which is only observed at sparsely distributed times. For specicity we consider a particular data set which has earlier been analyzed by a discrete time model involving unknown...... normalizing constants. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using continuous time processes compared to discrete time processes in the setting of the present paper as well as other spatial-temporal situations. Keywords: Bark beetle, conditional intensity, forest entomology, Markov chain Monte Carlo...
Ensemble Network Architecture for Deep Reinforcement Learning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xi-liang Chen
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The popular deep Q learning algorithm is known to be instability because of the Q-value’s shake and overestimation action values under certain conditions. These issues tend to adversely affect their performance. In this paper, we develop the ensemble network architecture for deep reinforcement learning which is based on value function approximation. The temporal ensemble stabilizes the training process by reducing the variance of target approximation error and the ensemble of target values reduces the overestimate and makes better performance by estimating more accurate Q-value. Our results show that this architecture leads to statistically significant better value evaluation and more stable and better performance on several classical control tasks at OpenAI Gym environment.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khakzad, Nima
2015-01-01
A domino effect is a low frequency high consequence chain of accidents where a primary accident (usually fire and explosion) in a unit triggers secondary accidents in adjacent units. High complexity and growing interdependencies of chemical infrastructures make them increasingly vulnerable to domino effects. Domino effects can be considered as time dependent processes. Thus, not only the identification of involved units but also their temporal entailment in the chain of accidents matter. More importantly, in the case of domino-induced fires which can generally last much longer compared to explosions, foreseeing the temporal evolution of domino effects and, in particular, predicting the most probable sequence of accidents (or involved units) in a domino effect can be of significance in the allocation of preventive and protective safety measures. Although many attempts have been made to identify the spatial evolution of domino effects, the temporal evolution of such accidents has been overlooked. We have proposed a methodology based on dynamic Bayesian network to model both the spatial and temporal evolutions of domino effects and also to quantify the most probable sequence of accidents in a potential domino effect. The application of the developed methodology has been demonstrated via a hypothetical fuel storage plant. - Highlights: • A Dynamic Bayesian Network methodology has been developed to model domino effects. • Considering time-dependencies, both spatial and temporal evolutions of domino effects have been modeled. • The concept of most probable sequence of accidents has been proposed instead of the most probable combination of accidents. • Using backward analysis, the most vulnerable units have been identified during a potential domino effect. • The proposed methodology does not need to identify a unique primary unit (accident) for domino effect modeling
The ABC Adaptive Fusion Architecture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bunde-Pedersen, Jonathan; Mogensen, Martin; Bardram, Jakob Eyvind
2006-01-01
and early implementation of a systemcapable of adapting to its operating environment, choosingthe best fit combination of the client-server and peerto-peer architectures. The architecture creates a seamlessintegration between a centralized hybrid architecture and adecentralized architecture, relying on what...
Cheung, Shao-Yong; Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung
2017-04-01
Due to the limited hydrogeological observation data and high levels of uncertainty within, parameter estimation of the groundwater model has been an important issue. There are many methods of parameter estimation, for example, Kalman filter provides a real-time calibration of parameters through measurement of groundwater monitoring wells, related methods such as Extended Kalman Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter are widely applied in groundwater research. However, Kalman Filter method is limited to linearity. This study propose a novel method, Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering, which provides a method that can considers the uncertainty of data in parameter estimation. With this two methods, we can estimate parameter by given hard data (certain) and soft data (uncertain) in the same time. In this study, we use Python and QGIS in groundwater model (MODFLOW) and development of Extended Kalman Filter and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering in Python in parameter estimation. This method may provide a conventional filtering method and also consider the uncertainty of data. This study was conducted through numerical model experiment to explore, combine Bayesian maximum entropy filter and a hypothesis for the architecture of MODFLOW groundwater model numerical estimation. Through the virtual observation wells to simulate and observe the groundwater model periodically. The result showed that considering the uncertainty of data, the Bayesian maximum entropy filter will provide an ideal result of real-time parameters estimation.
New Energy Architecture. Myanmar
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2013-06-15
A global transition towards a new energy architecture is under way, driven by countries' need to respond to the changing dynamics of economic growth, environmental sustainability and energy security. The World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Accenture, has created the New Energy Architecture Initiative to address and accelerate this transition. The Initiative supports the development of national strategies and policy frameworks as countries seek to achieve the combined goals of energy security and access, sustainability, and economic growth and development. The World Economic Forum has formed a partnership with the Ministry of Energy of Myanmar to help apply the Initiative's approach to this developing and resource-rich nation. The Asian Development Bank and the World Economic Forum's Project Adviser, Accenture, have collaborated with the Forum on this consultation process, and have been supported by relevant government, industry and civil society stakeholders. The consultation process aims to understand the nation's current energy architecture challenges and provide an overview of a path to a New Energy Architecture through a series of insights. These insights could form the basis for a long-term multistakeholder roadmap to build Myanmar's energy sector in a way that is secure and sustainable, and promotes economic growth as the country makes its democratic transition. While not all recommendations can be implemented in the near term, they do provide options for creating a prioritized roadmap for Myanmar's energy transition. This report is the culmination of a nine-month multistakeholder process investigating Myanmar's energy architecture. Over the course of many visits to the country, the team has conducted numerous interviews, multistakeholder workshops, and learning and data-gathering exercises to ensure a comprehensive range of information and views. The team has also engaged with a variety of stakeholders to better inform their findings, which have come
New Energy Architecture. Myanmar
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2013-06-15
A global transition towards a new energy architecture is under way, driven by countries' need to respond to the changing dynamics of economic growth, environmental sustainability and energy security. The World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Accenture, has created the New Energy Architecture Initiative to address and accelerate this transition. The Initiative supports the development of national strategies and policy frameworks as countries seek to achieve the combined goals of energy security and access, sustainability, and economic growth and development. The World Economic Forum has formed a partnership with the Ministry of Energy of Myanmar to help apply the Initiative's approach to this developing and resource-rich nation. The Asian Development Bank and the World Economic Forum's Project Adviser, Accenture, have collaborated with the Forum on this consultation process, and have been supported by relevant government, industry and civil society stakeholders. The consultation process aims to understand the nation's current energy architecture challenges and provide an overview of a path to a New Energy Architecture through a series of insights. These insights could form the basis for a long-term multistakeholder roadmap to build Myanmar's energy sector in a way that is secure and sustainable, and promotes economic growth as the country makes its democratic transition. While not all recommendations can be implemented in the near term, they do provide options for creating a prioritized roadmap for Myanmar's energy transition. This report is the culmination of a nine-month multistakeholder process investigating Myanmar's energy architecture. Over the course of many visits to the country, the team has conducted numerous interviews, multistakeholder workshops, and learning and data-gathering exercises to ensure a comprehensive range of information and views. The team has also engaged with a variety of stakeholders to better
Spatio-Temporal Data Exchange Standards
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Christian Søndergaard; Schmidt, Albrecht
2003-01-01
We believe that research that concerns aspects of spatio-temporal data management may benefit from taking into account the various standards for spatio-temporal data formats. For example, this may contribute to rendering prototype software “open” and more readily useful. This paper thus identifies...... and briefly surveys standardization in relation to primarily the exchange and integration of spatio-temporal data. An overview of several data exchange languages is offered, along with reviews their potential for facilitating the collection of test data and the leveraging of prototypes. The standards, most...... of which are XML-based, lend themselves to the integration of prototypes into middleware architectures, e.g., as Web services....
Application of temporal LNC logic in artificial intelligence
Adamek, Marek; Mulawka, Jan
2016-09-01
This paper presents the temporal logic inference engine developed in our university. It is an attempt to demonstrate implementation and practical application of temporal logic LNC developed in Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw.1 The paper describes the fundamentals of LNC logic, architecture and implementation of inference engine. The practical application is shown by providing the solution for popular in Artificial Intelligence problem of Missionaries and Cannibals in terms of LNC logic. Both problem formulation and inference engine are described in details.
Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?
Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R
2017-08-07
The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also
Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments
Vogel, Kristin
2016-04-01
Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables
Principles of Temporal Processing Across the Cortical Hierarchy.
Himberger, Kevin D; Chien, Hsiang-Yun; Honey, Christopher J
2018-05-02
The world is richly structured on multiple spatiotemporal scales. In order to represent spatial structure, many machine-learning models repeat a set of basic operations at each layer of a hierarchical architecture. These iterated spatial operations - including pooling, normalization and pattern completion - enable these systems to recognize and predict spatial structure, while robust to changes in the spatial scale, contrast and noisiness of the input signal. Because our brains also process temporal information that is rich and occurs across multiple time scales, might the brain employ an analogous set of operations for temporal information processing? Here we define a candidate set of temporal operations, and we review evidence that they are implemented in the mammalian cerebral cortex in a hierarchical manner. We conclude that multiple consecutive stages of cortical processing can be understood to perform temporal pooling, temporal normalization and temporal pattern completion. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Towards a semantic web layered architecture
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Gerber, AJ
2007-02-01
Full Text Available as an architectural pattern or architectural style [6, 43]. In this section we give a brief description of the con- cepts software architecture and layered architecture. In ad- dition we provide a summary of a list of criteria for layered architectures identified...- els caused some architectural recurrences to evolve. These are described as architectural patterns [6] or architectural styles [43]. Examples of the best known architectural patterns include, but are not limited to, the client/server architectural...
Neural Architectures for Control
Peterson, James K.
1991-01-01
The cerebellar model articulated controller (CMAC) neural architectures are shown to be viable for the purposes of real-time learning and control. Software tools for the exploration of CMAC performance are developed for three hardware platforms, the MacIntosh, the IBM PC, and the SUN workstation. All algorithm development was done using the C programming language. These software tools were then used to implement an adaptive critic neuro-control design that learns in real-time how to back up a trailer truck. The truck backer-upper experiment is a standard performance measure in the neural network literature, but previously the training of the controllers was done off-line. With the CMAC neural architectures, it was possible to train the neuro-controllers on-line in real-time on a MS-DOS PC 386. CMAC neural architectures are also used in conjunction with a hierarchical planning approach to find collision-free paths over 2-D analog valued obstacle fields. The method constructs a coarse resolution version of the original problem and then finds the corresponding coarse optimal path using multipass dynamic programming. CMAC artificial neural architectures are used to estimate the analog transition costs that dynamic programming requires. The CMAC architectures are trained in real-time for each obstacle field presented. The coarse optimal path is then used as a baseline for the construction of a fine scale optimal path through the original obstacle array. These results are a very good indication of the potential power of the neural architectures in control design. In order to reach as wide an audience as possible, we have run a seminar on neuro-control that has met once per week since 20 May 1991. This seminar has thoroughly discussed the CMAC architecture, relevant portions of classical control, back propagation through time, and adaptive critic designs.
Architecture is Life... ...Life is Architecture
Snider, David E
2001-01-01
When thinking about architecture, I cannot help but think about my life and the things that have affected my life. How does the environment around us effect the daily decisions we make? How do the experiences throughout our life impact who we are and who we become? The people and surroundings we choose will ultimately decide the type of people we become. When we select our surroundings we are in turn selecting our ideal community. Everyone is trying to achieve community in some sense, from in...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luigi Acerbi
Full Text Available Humans have been shown to adapt to the temporal statistics of timing tasks so as to optimize the accuracy of their responses, in agreement with the predictions of Bayesian integration. This suggests that they build an internal representation of both the experimentally imposed distribution of time intervals (the prior and of the error (the loss function. The responses of a Bayesian ideal observer depend crucially on these internal representations, which have only been previously studied for simple distributions. To study the nature of these representations we asked subjects to reproduce time intervals drawn from underlying temporal distributions of varying complexity, from uniform to highly skewed or bimodal while also varying the error mapping that determined the performance feedback. Interval reproduction times were affected by both the distribution and feedback, in good agreement with a performance-optimizing Bayesian observer and actor model. Bayesian model comparison highlighted that subjects were integrating the provided feedback and represented the experimental distribution with a smoothed approximation. A nonparametric reconstruction of the subjective priors from the data shows that they are generally in agreement with the true distributions up to third-order moments, but with systematically heavier tails. In particular, higher-order statistical features (kurtosis, multimodality seem much harder to acquire. Our findings suggest that humans have only minor constraints on learning lower-order statistical properties of unimodal (including peaked and skewed distributions of time intervals under the guidance of corrective feedback, and that their behavior is well explained by Bayesian decision theory.
Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U.; Poern, K.
1997-04-01
We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods
Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, (Finland); Poern, K. [Poern Consulting, Nykoeping (Sweden)
1997-04-01
We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods. 14 refs, 10 figs.
Bagnardi, M.; Hooper, A. J.
2017-12-01
Inversions of geodetic observational data, such as Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements, are often performed to obtain information about the source of surface displacements. Inverse problem theory has been applied to study magmatic processes, the earthquake cycle, and other phenomena that cause deformation of the Earth's interior and of its surface. Together with increasing improvements in data resolution, both spatial and temporal, new satellite missions (e.g., European Commission's Sentinel-1 satellites) are providing the unprecedented opportunity to access space-geodetic data within hours from their acquisition. To truly take advantage of these opportunities we must become able to interpret geodetic data in a rapid and robust manner. Here we present the open-source Geodetic Bayesian Inversion Software (GBIS; available for download at http://comet.nerc.ac.uk/gbis). GBIS is written in Matlab and offers a series of user-friendly and interactive pre- and post-processing tools. For example, an interactive function has been developed to estimate the characteristics of noise in InSAR data by calculating the experimental semi-variogram. The inversion software uses a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm, incorporating the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with adaptive step size, to efficiently sample the posterior probability distribution of the different source parameters. The probabilistic Bayesian approach allows the user to retrieve estimates of the optimal (best-fitting) deformation source parameters together with the associated uncertainties produced by errors in the data (and by scaling, errors in the model). The current version of GBIS (V1.0) includes fast analytical forward models for magmatic sources of different geometry (e.g., point source, finite spherical source, prolate spheroid source, penny-shaped sill-like source, and dipping-dike with uniform opening) and for dipping faults with uniform
The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Selig, Marco
2014-01-01
We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D 3 PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy
The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference
Selig, Marco
2014-12-01
We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.
Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Valeriano IRANZO
2008-01-01
Full Text Available Bayesianism and Inference to the best explanation (IBE are two different models of inference. Recently there has been some debate about the possibility of “bayesianizing” IBE. Firstly I explore several alternatives to include explanatory considerations in Bayes’s Theorem. Then I distinguish two different interpretations of prior probabilities: “IBE-Bayesianism” (IBE-Bay and “frequentist-Bayesianism” (Freq-Bay. After detailing the content of the latter, I propose a rule for assessing the priors. I also argue that Freq-Bay: (i endorses a role for explanatory value in the assessment of scientific hypotheses; (ii avoids a purely subjectivist reading of prior probabilities; and (iii fits better than IBE-Bayesianism with two basic facts about science, i.e., the prominent role played by empirical testing and the existence of many scientific theories in the past that failed to fulfil their promises and were subsequently abandoned.
Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Neil, Martin; Tailor, Manesh; Marquez, David; Fenton, Norman; Hearty, Peter
2008-01-01
A hybrid Bayesian network (BN) is one that incorporates both discrete and continuous nodes. In our extensive applications of BNs for system dependability assessment, the models are invariably hybrid and the need for efficient and accurate computation is paramount. We apply a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretisation with robust propagation algorithms on junction tree structures to perform inference in hybrid BNs. We illustrate its use in the field of dependability with two example of reliability estimation. Firstly we estimate the reliability of a simple single system and next we implement a hierarchical Bayesian model. In the hierarchical model we compute the reliability of two unknown subsystems from data collected on historically similar subsystems and then input the result into a reliability block model to compute system level reliability. We conclude that dynamic discretisation can be used as an alternative to analytical or Monte Carlo methods with high precision and can be applied to a wide range of dependability problems
Bayesian Peak Picking for NMR Spectra
Cheng, Yichen
2014-02-01
Protein structure determination is a very important topic in structural genomics, which helps people to understand varieties of biological functions such as protein-protein interactions, protein–DNA interactions and so on. Nowadays, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has often been used to determine the three-dimensional structures of protein in vivo. This study aims to automate the peak picking step, the most important and tricky step in NMR structure determination. We propose to model the NMR spectrum by a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities and use the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm as the computational tool to solve the problem. Under the Bayesian framework, the peak picking problem is casted as a variable selection problem. The proposed method can automatically distinguish true peaks from false ones without preprocessing the data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in the literature that tackles the peak picking problem for NMR spectrum data using Bayesian method.
Bayesian component separation: The Planck experience
Wehus, Ingunn Kathrine; Eriksen, Hans Kristian
2018-05-01
Bayesian component separation techniques have played a central role in the data reduction process of Planck. The most important strength of this approach is its global nature, in which a parametric and physical model is fitted to the data. Such physical modeling allows the user to constrain very general data models, and jointly probe cosmological, astrophysical and instrumental parameters. This approach also supports statistically robust goodness-of-fit tests in terms of data-minus-model residual maps, which are essential for identifying residual systematic effects in the data. The main challenges are high code complexity and computational cost. Whether or not these costs are justified for a given experiment depends on its final uncertainty budget. We therefore predict that the importance of Bayesian component separation techniques is likely to increase with time for intensity mapping experiments, similar to what has happened in the CMB field, as observational techniques mature, and their overall sensitivity improves.
Bayesian Modelling of Functional Whole Brain Connectivity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Røge, Rasmus
the prevalent strategy of standardizing of fMRI time series and model data using directional statistics or we model the variability in the signal across the brain and across multiple subjects. In either case, we use Bayesian nonparametric modeling to automatically learn from the fMRI data the number......This thesis deals with parcellation of whole-brain functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) using Bayesian inference with mixture models tailored to the fMRI data. In the three included papers and manuscripts, we analyze two different approaches to modeling fMRI signal; either we accept...... of funcional units, i.e. parcels. We benchmark the proposed mixture models against state of the art methods of brain parcellation, both probabilistic and non-probabilistic. The time series of each voxel are most often standardized using z-scoring which projects the time series data onto a hypersphere...
Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks
Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann
2011-01-01
Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.
Narrowband interference parameterization for sparse Bayesian recovery
Ali, Anum
2015-09-11
This paper addresses the problem of narrowband interference (NBI) in SC-FDMA systems by using tools from compressed sensing and stochastic geometry. The proposed NBI cancellation scheme exploits the frequency domain sparsity of the unknown signal and adopts a Bayesian sparse recovery procedure. This is done by keeping a few randomly chosen sub-carriers data free to sense the NBI signal at the receiver. As Bayesian recovery requires knowledge of some NBI parameters (i.e., mean, variance and sparsity rate), we use tools from stochastic geometry to obtain analytical expressions for the required parameters. Our simulation results validate the analysis and depict suitability of the proposed recovery method for NBI mitigation. © 2015 IEEE.
Machine learning a Bayesian and optimization perspective
Theodoridis, Sergios
2015-01-01
This tutorial text gives a unifying perspective on machine learning by covering both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, which rely on optimization techniques, as well as Bayesian inference, which is based on a hierarchy of probabilistic models. The book presents the major machine learning methods as they have been developed in different disciplines, such as statistics, statistical and adaptive signal processing and computer science. Focusing on the physical reasoning behind the mathematics, all the various methods and techniques are explained in depth, supported by examples and problems, giving an invaluable resource to the student and researcher for understanding and applying machine learning concepts. The book builds carefully from the basic classical methods to the most recent trends, with chapters written to be as self-contained as possible, making the text suitable for different courses: pattern recognition, statistical/adaptive signal processing, statistical/Bayesian learning, as well as shor...
Bayesian calibration : past achievements and future challenges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Christen, J.A.
2001-01-01
Due to variations of the radiocarbon content in the biosphere over time, radiocarbon determinations need to be calibrated to obtain calendar years. Over the past decade a series of researchers have investigated the possibility of using Bayesian statistics to calibrate radiocarbon determinations, the main feature being the inclusion of contextual information into the calibration process. This allows for a coherent calibration of groups of determinations arising from related contexts (stratigraphical layers, peat cores, cultural events, ect.). Moreover, the 'related contexts' are also dated, and not only the material radiocarbon dated itself. We review Bayesian Calibration and state some of its current challenges like: software development, prior specification, robustness, etc. (author). 14 refs., 4 figs