Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.z [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

2009-11-15

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

Shell energy scenarios to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

2007-01-01

In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

Technology learning for renewable energy. Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

2009-11-15

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. (author)

Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2012-01-01

Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

2009-10-01

The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

Scenario comparisons of gasification technology using energy life cycle assessment for bioenergy recovery from rice straw in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shie, J.L.; Lee, C.H.; Chen, C.S.; Lin, K.L.; Chang, C.Y.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The energy balances of potential gasification technology and limitation boundary are evaluated. • The transportation and pre-treatment are the greatest parts of energy use. • Every technology process has positive energy benefits at all on-site pre-treatment cases. • The optimal ranges of transportation distance and treatment capacity are suggested. • The optimal technology from the tendency model is addressed. - Abstract: This study uses different scenarios to evaluate, by means of energy life-cycle assessments (ELCAs), the energy balance of potential gasification technology and limitation boundaries in Taiwan. Rice straw is chosen as the target material in this study because it is the most significant agriculture waste in Taiwan. Energy products include syngas (CO + H 2 ), methane, carbon dioxide and carbon black residue. The scenarios simulate capacities of 50,000–200,000 tons/year. The distances of collection and transportation are calculated by a circular area 50–100 km in diameter. Also, the on-site and off-site pretreatments of rice straw are evaluated. For this optimum scenario case, the average of the total input energy for the assessed systems is about 15.9% of the average output energy; the value of the net energy balance (NEB) is 0.841. Every technological process has positive energy benefits at all on-site scenario cases. As the capacity is increased, the energy consumption required for transportation increases and the values of the energy indicators decrease. According to the limitation boundaries from the tendency model at on-site cases, the suggested transportation distance and treatment capacity are below 114.72 km and 251,533 tons/year, respectively, while the energy return on investment (EROI) value is greater than 1

Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

2003-01-01

In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

Global Energy Scenarios to 2040. Understanding our energy future - 2016 Edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

The energy world is in rapid evolution, driven in particular by policy developments (like the INDCs agreed at COP-21) but also economic, geopolitical, technological as well as social considerations. Enerdata regularly produces scenario based energy outlooks to analyze and forecast the supply and demand of energy commodities, energy prices, as well as the impact of climate change and energy policies on energy markets and their consequences for the energy industry. After the COP-21 in Paris, Enerdata has again done such an exercise. The Ener-Blue scenario provides an outlook of energy systems up to 2040 based on the achievement of the 2030 targets defined in the INDCs as announced at the COP-21. Ener-Green explores the implications of more stringent energy and climate policies to limit the global temperature increase at around 1.5-2 deg. C by the end of the century. Finally, Ener-Brown describes a world with abundant fossil fuel resource and durably low energy prices, affecting the entire energy system over a long period. These different scenarios explore the consequences on energy supply and demand, energy mix, energy prices by fuel and region, as well as the implications on climate issues. In the Ener-Blue scenario, the future energy mix remains dominated by fossil fuels, but INDCs planned policies regarding climate mitigation, energy efficiency and renewable energy sources lead to a diversification towards other sources of energy. Among others, the EU successfully achieves its triple objective of its climate and energy package, while China and India expand their renewable capacities to achieve their renewable targets. Within this international context of climate coordinated policies, CO_2 emission growth slows down. However, the efforts defined in INDCs are not ambitious enough to limit the increase of the average global temperature to 2 deg. C in 2050, but these efforts are compatible with 3-4 deg. C objective. In the Ener-Green scenario, there is a clear

Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

2016-06-01

goes beyond the plans and targets announced by governments and policy makers. The Energy Transition Scenario assumes the implementation of those measures that are currently the most technically, economically, and politically mature for large-scale roll-out of energy efficiency and renewable energies. This Scenario assumes no major technology breakthrough, but the deployment of existing technologies and sound energy efficiency policies and measures across all Mediterranean countries. (authors)

Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

Science.gov (United States)

Coelho, Maysa Joppert

The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input

Energy Efficiency Road Mapping in Three Future Scenarios for Lao PDR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hajime Sasaki

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Climate change, pollution, and energy insecurity are among the greatest problems of our time. These problems are no longer issues in particular countries but international issues. Several framework conventions on these issues are now in place throughout the world, and developing countries are no exception. Energy efficiency is one of the important issues for developing countries. Lao PDR is one such country. This paper proposes a technology roadmap and policy recommendations for Lao PDR with consideration given to a wide range of economic and social impacts of prospective technologies. For the implementation of technology assessment in the formulation of an energy efficiency roadmap, we first elaborate the social and economic conditions of Lao PDR through preliminary research and field research, and then design three scenarios for a future Lao PDR. These three scenarios are as follows: 1. The "Poverty Reduction" scenario is for electrification rate improvement; 2. The "Industrial Creation" scenario is for stable domestic energy supply; and 3. The "GMS Integration" scenario is for the acquisition of foreign exchange by energy export.

Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

2007-05-15

Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

2010-01-01

Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

Scenarios of socio-economic and energy development of the country up to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsvetanov, P.

1990-01-01

The scenarios description is given as the first stage of a procedure of an energy-economy interrelations dynamics study, the other two stages being the formulation and the analysis of the development variants. The scenarios reflect quantitatively the policies and the international conditions for the socio-economic, energy demand and energy supply developments of the country. Two economic development scenarios ('high' - official macroeconomic views and 'low' - economic restructuring and decrease of energy intensity) hierarchically preside over the two corresponding energy demand scenarios of different technological evolutions ('traditional' and 'energy efficiency' oriented one) in the industry, the transport and the domestic and services sectors. Four energy supply system scenarios follow, corresponding to different approaches in the development of the energy conversion technologies and energy carriers, thus constituting a scenario tree of the studies. 16 refs., 2 figs., 7 tab., 1 ann. (R.Ts.)

TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

2012-06-01

Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

2012-01-01

Low carbon energy technologies are of increasing importance to India for reducing emissions and diversifying its energy supply mix. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model, this paper analyzes a targets approach for pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies in the Indian electricity generation sector from 2005 to 2095. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements, and expert opinions. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario, wind and nuclear technologies exceed respective targets in the long run without any subsidy push, while solar energy requires subsidy push throughout the century in order to meet its high targets. In the short run, nuclear energy also requires significant subsidy, including a much higher initial subsidy relative to solar power, which is a result of its higher targets. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies. Still, subsidy is required — especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. We also found that pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies leads to a decrease in share of CCS under the carbon price scenario and biomass under both the reference and carbon price scenarios. This is because low carbon technologies compete among themselves and substitute each other, thereby enhancing the need for subsidy or carbon price, highlighting that proposed targets are not set at efficient levels. In light of contemporary debate on external costs of nuclear energy, we also assess the sensitivity of the results to nuclear technology cost. We find that higher cost significantly decreases the share of nuclear power under both the reference and carbon price scenarios.

World Energy Scenarios to 2050: the Europe Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weeda, E.

2006-01-01

The topic of this paper is an overview of the Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 study objectives, with emphasis on The Report for the Europe Region. The study is focused on achievement of the 3A's global energy goal (Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability) by using various policy scenarios. The heart of the study will therefore be Policy Scenarios postulated within the context of two dimensions of government policy uncertainty. One with the dimension indicating whether the world is heading towards increased globalism and co-operation between governments and/or business and industry, or more towards bilateralism and nationalism outside global governance institutions. As outcomes, there is particularly described each of the four predicted scenarios: L'Europe des Patries, Fortress Europe, Confident Europe and Trailer Europe considering five main common indicators: political context, energy security, market forces/competition, environment/climate change, and energy mix/energy technology.(author)

Energy Revolution. A Sustainable Pathway to a Clean Energy Future for Europe. A European Energy Scenario for EU-25

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teske, S.; Baker, C.

2005-09-01

Greenpeace and the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center (DLR),have developed a blueprint for the EU energy supply that shows how Europe can lead the way to a sustainable pathway to a clean energy future. The Greenpeace energy revolution scenario demonstrates that phasing out nuclear power and massively reducing CO2-emissions is possible. The scenario comes close to a fossil fuels phase-out by aiming for a 80% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050.The pathway in this scenario achieves this phase-out in a relatively short time-frame without using technological options (such as 'clean coal') that are ultimately dead ends, deflecting resources from the real solutions offered by renewable energy. Whilst there are many technical options that will allow us to meet short-term EU Kyoto targets (-8% GHG by 2010), these may have limited long-term potential. The Greenpeace Energy Revolution Scenario shows that in the long run, renewable energy will be cheaper than conventional energy sources and reduce EU's dependence from world market prices from imported fossil and nuclear fuels.The rapid growth of renewable energy technologies will lead to a large investment in new technologies.This dynamic market growth will result in a shift of employment opportunities from conventional energy-related industries to new occupational fields in the renewable energy industry. Renewable energy is expected to provide about 700,000 jobs in the field of electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2010

Scenarios of the long term evolution of the energy sector. Energy needs, choices and possibilities: Shell's scenarios for 2050. The long-term evolution of the energy sector. A vision of the 2020-2050 energy mix. Phase dynamics analysis of energy demand scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, B.; Appert, O; Bauquis, P.R.; Alba, P.

2002-01-01

This dossier comprises 4 articles dealing with energy scenarios. The first article presents the prospective studies carried out by the Shell group which lead to the construction of two scenarios entitled: 'dynamics as usual' and 'the spirit of the coming age'. Both scenarios foresee an explosion of the primary energy demand for the coming next 50 years (multiplied by a factor of 2 to 2.8 with respect to 2000) with a decline of hydrocarbons for the benefit of gas and renewable energies (including bio-fuels), while nuclear and coal will still represent a quarter of our needs. However, the main uncertainty remains the demographic expansion during the next 50 years. The second article presents the energy models and projections of the IEA for the long-term evolution of the energy sector (petroleum, gas, coal, renewable energy and uranium resources) and the main uncertainties of these projections (economic growth, environmental policies, technological evolutions). The third article presents the agreements and divergences of the author's forecasts for 2050 with Shell's scenarios, while the last article makes a comparison between the IEA, IIASA-CME and Shell scenarios using a phase dynamics analysis. (J.S.)

Energy scenario analysis Enova-IFE; Energiscenarioanalyser Enova-IFE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosenberg, Eva; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

2009-11-15

Institute for Energy Technology has made a projection of energy use in stationary sector of Norway up to 2050 and by the use of the Norwegian MARKAL model analyzed various scenarios. Total increase demand in stationary sectors by 6 TWh, or 4% to 2020 and by 29 TWh or 16% for 2050, which increase primarily comes in the buildings. Scenarios are analyzed to show the long-term potential given the various operating parameters. An important scenario that is analyzed, the fulfillment of renewable directive. In 2005, the renewable share in Norway about 61%. In the analysis it is assumed that the renewable share to be 75% as of 2020. Implementation of energy efficiency will have a crucial role to increase the renewable share, and efficiency contributes with 26 TWh in the base scenario. What percentage of energy efficiency measures are really implemented will have a great impact on how much renewable electricity to be produced, or how much more bio-energy that must be used, in order to achieve the goal of renewable directive. (AG)

Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2012-01-01

Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical engineering perspective. The above-mentioned methodologies are compared in an evolutionary perspective to determine if the methodologies reflect the complex reality well. The results of the scenarios are also assessed within the framework of “radical technological change” in order to show which future scenario assumes more radical change within five dimensions of technology; technique, knowledge, organization, product, and profit. -- Highlights: ► Three future scenarios for Danish future in 2050 are compared. ► All of these scenarios suggest the same solutions for the future with minor differences. ► There are differences in methodologies for IDA 2050 and CEESA such as biomass, transport, and power grid. ► The contents of scenarios are assessed which scenario assume more radical technological change in the future.

Technology penetration and capital stock turnover. Lessons from IEA scenario analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Philibert, C. [International Energy Agency IEA, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France)

2007-05-15

The aim of this paper is to reflect on the significant differences between the emissions reductions projections in mid-term and long-term scenarios, and to explore their policy implications. It draws mainly on two recent IEA publications: the 2006 World Energy Outlook (WEO), which contains energy and energy-related CO2 projections up to 2030, and the 2006-published Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), which considers scenarios and strategies up to 2050. The analysis focuses on a comparison of the Alternative Policy Scenario of the 2006 WEO, and the various Accelerated Technology (ACT) Scenarios in the ETP. The next section provides the necessary background on these two publications and their energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The third section investigates in some more depth the reasons for the large differences in the amount of emission reductions at these dates. Capital stock turnover and technology maturation lead times, in particular, are identified as primary reasons for the differences. The fourth section suggests several possible policy conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis. They include thought pieces with respect to the action required in the short-term; to the necessity of long-term signals; to the advantages and limitations of short-term targets; and to the opportunities and challenges the international community faces with respect to emission reductions in developing countries.

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

2016-01-01

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

2015-01-01

In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

2013-04-13

This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

World Energy Scenarios 2050: Impact of the Energy Governance Models to the Future of the European Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kisel, E.

2014-01-01

World Energy Council has explored the impact of two extreme governance models of energy sector to the global economic and climate developments. Scenario 'Jazz' describes the world, where investments in the energy markets are made by the companies on the purely economic basis. Scenario 'Symphony' describes the world, where decisions about the energy investments are made by the governments. It appears that in case of Scenario 'Jazz' we would reach lower energy prices, but it would also bring along higher and wider consumption of energy, and much higher environmental impact. In case of Scenario 'Symphony' energy prices would be somewhat higher, but environmental and energy efficiency would deliver better results, and there will be more energy-poor people around the world. It can also be observed, that resulting energy mixes of these two scenarios are very different. When Scenario 'Jazz' would leave the share of fossil fuels nearly to the current levels, then Scenario 'Symphony' supports strongly development of Solar and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Sequestration Technologies. The modelling was also made separately for different regions of the world, the results for Europe can be observed from the report as well. This provides a fruit for thought about the role of the governments in the implementation of the EU 2030 Energy and Climate Strategy. The presentation would describe shortly the methodology of the study, clarifies the assumptions of the scenarios and highlights the main outcomes of the study in for the world and for European energy sector. (author).

Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrattenholzer, L.

2005-01-01

The Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) develops policy-relevant global and world-regional energy perspectives. The basic premise of the ECS's research program is a global trend of d ecarbonization . Firstly, decarbonization includes a trend toward ever-greater efficiency, or ever less waste, in society's use of energy resources. Secondly, it includes a trend towards less carbon-intensive fossil fuels (e.g., from coal toward natural gas) and, further, to non-fossil fuels, especially renewable energy carriers. Technological change is generally regarded as one of the key drivers of sustained economic growth. Long-term energy scenarios developed at IIASA and elsewhere show that, depending on key assumptions on drivers such as population, economic growth and technological development, global energy development can be environmentally unsustainable. First, energy development might not lead to stabilizing greenhouse concentrations and might thus have significant negative impacts on the global climate. In addition, some, especially coal-intensive, scenarios might lead to levels of acid deposition at which significant damage to sensitive ecosystems is expected to occur in Europe and, even more so, in Asia. A continuation of the observed historical long-term trends of decarbonization, dematerialization, and energy efficiency improvements might therefore not be sufficient to achieve sustainable growth. Targeted technological development aiming at accelerating decarbonization, dematerialization, and/or efficiency improvement may be one of the most effective means for reconciling economic growth with global environmental objectives. This might require a step-up in investments in R and D and in the demonstration of technologies so as to stimulate both learning-by-searching and learning-by-doing. In this presentation, global E3 scenarios will be summarized in the following three groups: Non

Experience 2030. Four scenarios for the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aarts, P.; Breunesse, L.; Duijm, K.; Van Empel, F.; Van Erp, J.; Van Huffelen, A.; Veenstra, J.; Visser, H.; Sicking, C.; Bloemendaal, R.

2003-01-01

In four days several experts in the field of energy participated in a brainstorm session to discuss the future and the consequences for our energy supply and demand, energy sources and technology. In this book four scenarios are presented: (1) Voluntary Simplicity, characterized by austerity and solidarity; (2) Hyper Individualism, characterized by competitive activities for as much prosperity as possible; (3) Haves and Have-nots, based on geopolitical instability and a strong technological development, resulting even beyond a wider gap between rich and poor; and (4) Tribal Society, dominated by fear, distrust and less prosperity [nl

Comparing long term energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

2001-01-01

Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

2013-01-01

The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

Energy savings in drastic climate change policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isoard, Stephane; Wiesenthal, Tobias

2005-01-01

This paper reports a climate change policy scenario compatible with long-term sustainable objectives set at EU level (6th Environment Action Plan). By setting ambitious targets for GHG emissions reduction by 2030, this normative scenario relies on market-based instruments and flexible mechanisms. The integrated policy that is simulated (i.e. addressing energy, transport, agriculture and environmental impacts) constitutes a key outlook for the next 5-year report of the European Environment Agency (EEA). This scenario highlights what it would take to drastically curb EU GHG emissions and how much it might cost. The findings show that such a 'deep reduction' climate policy could work as a powerful catalyst for (1) substantial energy savings, and (2) promoting sustainable energy systems in the long term. The implications of this policy lever on the energy system are many-fold indeed, e.g. a substantial limitation of total energy demand or significant shifts towards energy and environment-friendly technologies on the supply side. Clear and transparent price signals, which are associated with market-based instruments, appear to be a key factor ensuring sufficient visibility for capital investment in energy efficient and environment-friendly options. Finally it is suggested that market-based policy options, which are prone to lead to win-win situations and are of particular interest from an integrated policy-making perspective, would also significantly benefit from an enhanced energy policy framework

Greenhouse gas energy scenarios for Mexico in year 2020, and mitigation potential of renewable technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheinbaum, Claudia; Robles, Guillermo; Rodriguez V, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Massera, Omar [UNAM, Michoacan (Mexico)

2000-07-01

This paper presents the structure of the Mexican Energy-Emission Scenario Model (MEESM). In explains the importance of developing a bottom-up model for GHG mitigation assessment in Mexico. Also, the paper presents results of CO{sub 2} mitigation scenarios for year 2020 for five renewable energy technologies: solar water heaters, geothermal, biomass, mini/micro hydro and wind power generation. The paper concludes by discussing the importance of simulation accounting bottom-up models as tools for GHG mitigation policies. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta la estructura del Modelo de Escenario de Emision de Energia Mexicano (MEESM). En el se explica la importancia de desarrollar un modelo organizacional de abajo hacia arriba para la evaluacion de la mitigacion del efecto invernadero en Mexico. El articulo presenta tambien los resultados de los escenarios de mitigacion de CO{sub 2} para el ano 2020 utilizando cinco tecnologias de energia renovable: calentadores solares de agua, geotermia, biomasa, y mini/micro generacion de energia por agua y viento. El articulo concluye con el analisis de la importancia de la simulacion tomando en cuenta modelos organizacionales de abajo hacia arriba como herramientas para las politicas de mitigacion del efecto invernadero.

ADEME energy transition scenarios. Summary including a macro-economic evaluation 2030 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-05-01

ADEME, the French Environment and Energy Management Agency, is a public agency reporting to the Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy and the Ministry of Higher Education and Research. In 2012 the agency drew up a long-term scenario entitled 'ADEME Energy Transition Scenarios 2030-2050'. This document presents a summary of the report. The full version can be viewed online on the ADEME web site. With this work ADEME offers a proactive energy vision for all stakeholders - experts, the general public, decision-makers, etc. - focusing on two main areas of expertise: managing energy conservation and developing renewable energy production using proven or demonstration-phase technologies. These scenarios identify a possible pathway for the energy transition in France. They are based on two time horizons and two separate methodologies. One projection, applicable from the present day, seeks to maximise potential energy savings and renewable energy production in an ambitious but realistic manner, up to 2030. The second exercise is a normative scenario that targets a fourfold reduction in greenhouse gas emissions generated in France by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. The analysis presented in this document is primarily based on an exploration of different scenarios that allow for the achievement of ambitious energy and environmental targets under technically, economically and socially feasible conditions. This analysis is supplemented by a macro-economic analysis. These projections, particularly for 2030, do not rely on radical changes in lifestyle, lower comfort levels or hypothetical major technological breakthroughs. They show that by using technologies and organisational changes that are currently within our reach, we have the means to achieve these long-term goals. The scenarios are based on assumptions of significant growth, both economic (1.8% per year) and demographic (0.4% a year). The 2050 scenario shows that with sustained growth, a

Introducing technology learning for energy technologies in a national CGE model through soft links to global and national energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinsen, Thomas

2011-01-01

This paper describes a method to model the influence by global policy scenarios, particularly spillover of technology learning, on the energy service demand of the non-energy sectors of the national economy. It is exemplified by Norway. Spillover is obtained from the technology-rich global Energy Technology Perspective model operated by the International Energy Agency. It is provided to a national hybrid model where a national bottom-up Markal model carries forward spillover into a national top-down CGE model at a disaggregated demand category level. Spillover of technology learning from the global energy technology market will reduce national generation costs of energy carriers. This may in turn increase demand in the non-energy sectors of the economy because of the rebound effect. The influence of spillover on the Norwegian economy is most pronounced for the production level of industrial chemicals and for the demand for electricity for residential energy services. The influence is modest, however, because all existing electricity generating capacity is hydroelectric and thus compatible with the low emission policy scenario. In countries where most of the existing generating capacity must be replaced by nascent energy technologies or carbon captured and storage the influence on demand is expected to be more significant. - Highlights: → Spillover of global technology learning may be forwarded into a macroeconomic model. → The national electricity price differs significantly between the different global scenarios. → Soft-linking global and national models facilitate transparency in the technology learning effect chain.

A novel method for energy harvesting simulation based on scenario generation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhe; Li, Taoshen; Xiao, Nan; Ye, Jin; Wu, Min

2018-06-01

Energy harvesting network (EHN) is a new form of computer networks. It converts ambient energy into usable electric energy and supply the electrical energy as a primary or secondary power source to the communication devices. However, most of the EHN uses the analytical probability distribution function to describe the energy harvesting process, which cannot accurately identify the actual situation for the lack of authenticity. We propose an EHN simulation method based on scenario generation in this paper. Firstly, instead of setting a probability distribution in advance, it uses optimal scenario reduction technology to generate representative scenarios in single period based on the historical data of the harvested energy. Secondly, it uses homogeneous simulated annealing algorithm to generate optimal daily energy harvesting scenario sequences to get a more accurate simulation of the random characteristics of the energy harvesting network. Then taking the actual wind power data as an example, the accuracy and stability of the method are verified by comparing with the real data. Finally, we cite an instance to optimize the network throughput, which indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method we proposed from the optimal solution and data analysis in energy harvesting simulation.

Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

Science.gov (United States)

Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

2014-12-01

Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

2007-01-01

Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contaldi, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghanadan, Rebecca; Koomey, J.G.

2005-01-01

This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios

2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Lixuan; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Möller, Bernd

2013-01-01

In 2009, Jiangsu province of China supplied 99.6 percent of its total energy consumption with fossil fuels, of which 82 percent was imported from other provinces and countries. With rising energy demand, frequent energy shortages, and increasing pollution, it is essential for Jiangsu to put more emphasis on improving its energy efficiency and utilizing its renewable resources in the future. This paper presents the integrated energy pathway for Jiangsu during its social and economic transformation until 2050. EnergyPLAN is the chosen energy system analysis tool, since it accounts for all sectors of the energy system that needs to be considered when integrating large-scale renewable energy. A current policy scenario (CPS) based on current energy policies and an ambitious policy scenario (APS) based on large-scale integration of renewable energy and ambitious measures of energy efficiency improvement are proposed. The two energy pathways are modeled and compared in terms of technology combination, non-fossil fuel shares of primary energy supply, socioeconomic costs, and CO 2 emissions. The insights from these pathways can provide valuable input for Jiangsu's future energy policies. - Highlights: ► An integrated energy pathway is designed for Jiangsu province by 2050. ► A current policy scenario and an ambitious policy scenario are modeled and assessed. ► The ambitious policy scenario can help stabilize CO 2 emissions and achieve better economy. ► The next 5–10 years would be a key period for Jiangsu's energy system transition. ► Several policy suggestions have been proposed.

South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2014-01-01

South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Fiscal 1975 Sunshine Project research report. Technology assessment on hydrogen energy technology. Part 2; 1975 nendo suiso energy gijutsu no technology assessment seika hokokuksho. 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1976-03-31

This research assesses the impact of development of practical hydrogen energy technology on the economy, society and environment in Japan, and proposes some effective countermeasures, the required technical development target and a promising promotion system. The example of technology assessment assuming practical technology several tens years after is hardly found. Hydrogen energy technology is in the first stage among (1) initial planning stage, (2) technical research and development stage, (3) practical technology stage and (4) service operation stage. In the first fiscal year, as the first stage of determination of the communication route between society and technology, study was made on the concrete system image of practical technology. In this fiscal year, study was made entirely on preparation of the scenario for imaging the future economy and society concretely, modifying the planning of the hydrogen energy system. Through comparison of the scenario and system, the meaning and problem of the hydrogen energy technology were clarified. (NEDO)

Energy scenarios for New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

1977-10-15

Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gracceva, Francesco

2005-01-01

Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

A world of differences, the normative EOS-scenarios. Final report of a study to found the normative scenarios of the project Energy research scenarios of the Energy Study Centre (ECN, Petten, Netherlands). Een wereld van verschil, de normatieve EOS-scenario's. Eindrapport van een studie ter onderbouwing van de normatieve scenario's van het project Energie Onderzoek Scenario's van het Energie Studie Centrum (ECN, Petten)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dinkelman, G.

1987-11-01

Three competing political and economical 'concepts of control' which underlie three normative energy-scenarios are described. The aim of the literature-research carried out for this report was to make the original scenarios more recognizable, and to find out which groups could be expected to support them. The concepts of control bear the names 'Dynamic and growth', 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' and 'Shared development'. They can be seen, so is argued, as competing perspectives on a so-called 'post-Fordist' world. The three concepts of control differ on what they see as common interests and the way they should be looked after. Topics in the description are: the desired rate of European political and economical integration, the borders of Europe, Europe's position in the world, the acceptance of new technologies, the goals they should be used for, and perceived relationships between energy, environment and economy. The scenarios show what happens if these three concepts of control become hegemonic without being forced to compromises. For all three scenarios a short sketch is given of the corresponding dominating energy- and environmental policy and of future relationships within OECD and between OECD on the one hand and NIC's/LDC's on the other. The conclusion of the report is that the ideological differences between the neoliberalism of 'Dynamic and growth' and the green, direct-democracy-politics of 'Shared development' are not as big as they were in the seventies. Especially on the new policy-areas like technology, energy and environment they get closer. But this does not mean that the concept of 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' can be put completely aside. Its goal of economic equality and its emphasis on government dirigation may become more attractive again if it comes out that market regulation leads to a dual society and that it was state-intervention (by

Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Executive Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-09-05

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) is the International Energy Agency's most ambitious publication on new developments in energy technology. It demonstrates how technologies -- from electric vehicles to smart grids -- can make a decisive difference in achieving the objective of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 C and enhancing energy security. ETP 2012 presents scenarios and strategies to 2050, with the aim of guiding decision makers on energy trends and what needs to be done to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future.

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico; Escenarios energeticos para la produccion de hidrogeno en Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)], e-mail: iqoren@gmail.com

2009-10-15

The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO{sub 2}. The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO{sub 2}, the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

Scenario-based energy efficiency and productivity in China: A non-radial directional distance function analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, H.; Zhou, P.; Zhou, D.Q.

2013-01-01

Improving energy efficiency and productivity is one of the most cost-effective ways for achieving the sustainable development target in China. This paper employs non-radial directional distance function approach to empirically investigate energy efficiency and energy productivity by including CO 2 emissions as an undesirable output. Three production scenarios, namely energy conservation (EC), energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER), and energy conservation, emission reduction and economic growth (ECEREG), are specified to assess China's energy efficiency and productivity growth during the period of Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Our empirical results show that there exist substantial differences in China's total-factor energy efficiency and productivity under different scenarios. Under the ECEREG scenario, the national average total-factor energy efficiency score was 0.6306 in 2005–2010, while the national average total-factor energy productivity increased by 0.27% annually during the period. The main driving force for energy productivity growth in China was energy technological change rather than energy efficiency change. - Highlights: • China's regional energy efficiency and productivity in 2005–2010 are evaluated. • Three production scenarios are considered. • Non-radial directional distance function with CO 2 emissions is employed. • Technological change is the main driver for China's energy productivity growth

Scenarios of future energy intensities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

2005-02-01

This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

2013-01-01

After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

How might renewable energy technologies fit in the food-water-energy nexus?

Science.gov (United States)

Newmark, R. L.; Macknick, J.; Heath, G.; Ong, S.; Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.; Roberts, B.

2011-12-01

metrics exist for defining land use impacts of energy technologies, with little consensus on how much total land is impacted or is necessary. Here we characterize the land use requirements of energy technologies by comparing various metrics from different studies, providing ranges of the potential land impact from alternative energy scenarios. Land use requirements for energy needs under these scenarios are compared with projected land use requirements for agriculture to support a growing population. The water implications of various energy and food scenarios are analyzed to provide insights into potential regional impacts or conflicts between sectors.

Renewable energy and CCS in German and European power sector decarbonization scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ludig, Sylvie

2013-11-06

In order to avoid unmanageable impacts of anthropogenic climate change, it is necessary to achieve substantial CO{sub 2} emission reductions in all energy sectors. Due to salient decarbonization options such as renewable energy technologies and carbon capture and storage (CCS), the power sector plays a major role in climate change mitigation strategies. However, these options come with a set of challenges: the output of wind and solar energy varies in time and space and CCS faces technical challenges and public acceptance problems. This thesis develops power sector decarbonization scenarios for the EU and Germany while taking into account both the interplay of renewable energy technologies and CCS as mitigation options as well as the technical challenges of renewable energy integration. More specifically, a series of model based studies address the respective roles of CCS and renewable energy technologies in emission reduction strategies while evaluating technical integration options such as transmission, storage and balancing technologies. Results show that large-scale expansion of renewable energies will play the main role in power sector decarbonization scenarios, but the availability of CCS could lead to lower total costs and easier reaching of emission reduction targets through compensation of emissions generated by balancing technologies. Long-distance transmission enables better siting of renewable energy and thus higher achievable renewable shares in power generation and higher capacity factors. These indirect effects of delayed expansions induce additional power system costs, which are high relative to investment costs for new transmission lines. Results also reveal a preference for flexible technologies in combination with high shares of renewables for balancing purposes rather than inflexible baseload plants. A case study for the EU shows that a near-complete decarbonization is possible both with and without transmission expansions, but total power

Environmental Externalities of Geological Carbon Sequestration Effects on Energy Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smekens, K.; Van der Zwaan, B.

2004-03-01

Geological carbon sequestration seems one of the promising options to address, in the near term, the global problem of climate change, since carbon sequestration technologies are in principle available today and their costs are expected to be affordable. Whereas extensive technological and economic feasibility studies rightly point out the large potential of this 'clean fossil fuel' option, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the detrimental environmental externalities that the sequestering of CO2 underground could entail. This paper assesses what the relevance might be of including these external effects in long-term energy planning and scenario analyses. Our main conclusion is that, while these effects are generally likely to be relatively small, carbon sequestration externalities do matter and influence the nature of future world energy supply and consumption. More importantly, since geological carbon storage (depending on the method employed) may in some cases have substantial external impacts, in terms of both environmental damage and health risks, it is recommended that extensive studies are performed to quantify these effects. This article addresses three main questions: (1) What may energy supply look like if one accounts for large-scale CO2 sequestration in the construction of long-term energy and climate change scenarios; (2) Suppose one hypothesizes a quantification of the external environmental costs of CO2 sequestration, how do then these supposed costs affect the evolution of the energy system during the 21st century; (3) Does it matter for these scenarios whether carbon sequestration damage costs are charged directly to consumers or, instead, to electricity producers?

Scenarios for solar thermal energy applications in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martins, F.R.; Abreu, S.L.; Pereira, E.B.

2012-01-01

The Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) database is used to prepare and discuss scenarios for solar thermal applications in Brazil. The paper discusses low temperature applications (small and large scale water heating) and solar power plants for electricity production (concentrated solar power plants and solar chimney plants) in Brazil. The results demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale application of solar energy for water heating and electricity generation in Brazil. Payback periods for water heating systems are typically below 4 years if they were used to replace residential electric showerheads in low-income families. Large-scale water heating systems also present high feasibility and many commercial companies are adopting this technology to reduce operational costs. The best sites to set up CSP plants are in the Brazilian semi-arid region where the annual energy achieves 2.2 MW h/m 2 and averages of daily solar irradiation are larger than 5.0 kW h/m 2 /day. The western area of Brazilian Northeastern region meets all technical requirements to exploit solar thermal energy for electricity generation based on solar chimney technology. Highlights: ► Scenarios for solar thermal applications are presented. ► Payback is typically below 4 years for small scale water heating systems. ► Large-scale water heating systems also present high feasibility. ► The Brazilian semi-arid region is the best sites for CSP and chimney tower plants.

Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2011-01-01

Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual......, the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic frequency...... simulations incorporating the Vehicle-to-grid technology. The results indicate how the EnergyPLAN model may be improved in terms of intra-hour variability, stability and ancillary services to achieve a better reflection of energy and power capacity requirements....

Energy in Western Europe until 2020: Proper interpretation of the scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alba, P.; Hartmann, J.

1993-01-01

The authors explain the political, methodological and economic underpinnings of the Report for Western Europe written for the World Energy Council's Energy for the World of Tomorrow in the perspective of the year 2020. The constraints and considerations analyzed constitute a natural and unavoidable framework for all possible changes in energy uses, and for evaluating the various possible strategies. Then addressing the strategic variables, the authors show that, when these variables are compared with the general framework, certain scenarios become incompatible with the expressed goals, and others exhibit their own internal inconsistencies. But this also reveals a certain degree of freedom. This leads to an energy scenario that satisfies environmental desiderata as well as supply reliability, without relying too heavily on a given technological solution. 3 tabs

Implications of technological learning on the prospects for renewable energy technologies in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uyterlinde, Martine A.; Junginger, Martin; Vries, Hage J. de; Faaij, Andre P.C.; Turkenburg, Wim C.

2007-01-01

The objective of this article is to examine the consequences of technological developments on the market diffusion of different renewable electricity technologies in the EU-25 until 2020, using a market simulation model (ADMIRE REBUS). It is assumed that from 2012 a harmonized trading system will be implemented, and a target of 24% renewable electricity (RES-E) in 2020 is set and met. By comparing optimistic and pessimistic endogenous technological learning scenarios, it is found that diffusion of onshore wind energy is relatively robust, regardless of technological development, but diffusion rates of offshore wind energy and biomass gasification greatly depend on their technological development. Competition between these two options and (existing) biomass combustion options largely determines the overall costs of electricity from renewables and the choice of technologies for the individual member countries. In the optimistic scenario, in 2020 the market price for RES-E is 1 Euro ct/kWh lower than in the pessimistic scenario (about 7 vs. 8 Euro ct/kWh). As a result, total RES-E production costs are 19% lower, and total governmental expenditures for RES-market stimulation are 30% lower in the optimistic scenario

The IIASA'83 scenario of energy development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.

1984-01-01

The prospects for natural gas as a major source of energy supply are good. Spurred by the energy crises of the 'seventies, recent exploration for gas resources as well as technological advances in deep drilling have enhanced the picture of gas as a plentiful fossil resource. Technological improvements in transporting gas over large distances, as piped gas and as a liquid, suggest the strong possibility of gas as an important commodity in energy trade. In addition, gas is a high quality and relatively clean fuel, which is especially attractive in today's world of environmental concern for pollution emissions from energy combustion. Such developments led to the design of the IIASA'83 Scenario of Energy Development, which explored the techno-economic feasibility of the expanded use of gas in energy systems. The work drew on the findings of the IIASA global energy analysis, documented in 'Energy in a Finite World'. All countries of the world were covered in the quantitative analysis, grouped regionally by similarity in energy resources and economic structure and not necessarily on the basis of geographic proximity. The period studied was necessarily the next half century, from 1980 to 2030, in view of the inertia in technological and economic systems and this constraint on the development of energy infrastructures. Global primary energy consumption increases some twofold from 10 TW.a/a to 21.9 TW.a/a over the next 50 years, while economic output globally grows some threefold. The breakdown of global primary energy consumption indicates an absolute increase in the use of all primary energy sources over the study period, with fossil fuels continuing to supply the lion's share of primary energy. The buildup of non-fossil energy sources to global supply levels by 2030 is likely to be constrained by the high capital investments required at a period of modest economic growth and by the sociopolitical controversy surrounding the use of some of these technologies. (author)

Investigating 100% renewable energy supply at regional level using scenario analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annicka Waenn

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Energy modelling work in Ireland to date has mainly taken place at a national level. A regional modelling approach is necessary however, for Ireland to reach the ambitious targets for renewable energy and emissions reduction. This paper explores the usefulness of the energy modelling tool EnergyPLAN in investigating the energy system of the South West Region of Ireland. This paper estimates a 10.5% current renewable energy share of energy use, with 40% renewable electricity. We build and assess a reference scenario and three renewable energy scenarios from a technological and resources perspective. The results show that sufficient resources are available for the South West Region energy system to become 100% renewable and quantifies the land-use implications. Moreover, EnergyPLAN can be a useful tool in exploring different technical solutions. However, thorough investigations of as many alternatives as possible, is necessary before major investments are made in a future energy system.

The digital society: A scenario for the energy transition by 2072

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maizi, Nadia; Assoumou, Edi; Le Gallic, Thomas

2017-01-01

This forward-looking exercise focuses on the energy transition and the compatibility of a society where digital technology has been deployed with France's goal of 'carbon neutrality' by 2072. If we are not careful, climate programs might be compromised owing to the energy needed for information and communications technology. On the supply side, what digital techniques and objects are being designed to address climate problems? On the demand side, what lifestyle trends will this technology trigger in a 'digital society', and what impact will they have on energy consumption? Beyond the results of the scenario imagined herein, it is worthwhile examining a range of decision-making tools for laying out the pathways we would like to take

ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

2014-01-01

This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

The implications of technological learning on the prospects of specific renewable energy technologies in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uyterlinde, M.A.; De Vries, H.J.; Junginger, H.M.

2005-05-01

The objective of this chapter is to examine the impact of technological learning on the diffusion of specific renewable energy technologies into the electricity market of the EU-25 until 2020, using a market simulation model (ADMIRE REBUS). It is assumed that from 2012 a harmonized trading system for renewable energy certificates will be implemented. Also it is assumed that a target of 24% renewable electricity (RES-E) in 2020 is set and met. By comparing optimistic and pessimistic endogenous technological learning scenarios, it is found that the diffusion of onshore wind energy into the market is relatively robust, regardless of technological development. However the diffusion rates of offshore wind energy and biomass gasification greatly depend on their technological development. Competition between these two options and already existing biomass combustion options largely determines the overall costs of electricity from renewables and the choice of technologies for the individual member countries. In the optimistic learning scenario, in 2020 the market price for RES-E is 1 euroct/kWh lower than in the pessimistic scenario (about 7 vs. 8 euroct/kWh). As a result, the total expenditures for RES-E market stimulation are 30% lower in the optimistic scenario. For comparison, instead of introducing a harmonized trading system, also continuation of present policies to support renewables was evaluated, assuming that the member states of the EU can fulfil their ambition levels only by exploiting their domestic renewable energy potentials (i.e. exclusion of international trade). This would require many member states to use their offshore wind potential, making the diffusion of offshore wind much less dependent on both the rate of technological learning and competition from biomass options, compared to the harmonization policy scenario

New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madlener, Reinhard; Kowalski, Katharina; Stagl, Sigrid

2007-01-01

Increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity production is a nationally and internationally acknowledged aim for sustainable development. In this context, the participatory development and appraisal of energy scenarios can be useful for enabling stakeholders to explore future energy options and for supporting the national policy discourse. The five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, which was developed as part of the ARTEMIS project, examines possible energy futures paths by combining (1) scenario development; (2) multi-criteria evaluation; and (3) a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. Economic, social, environmental and technological impacts as well as revealed social preferences are used for the ranking of the scenarios. Due to the paramount importance of bioenergy in Austria, special emphasis in the scenario development is put on the contribution of biomass. Two main bioenergy issues and their consideration in the ARTEMIS project are explicitly addressed in this paper: the cascadic utilisation of biomass resources and the demand for land area and land area conflicts. Overall, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice and what insights policy-makers can gain from it. We also explore the methodology's limitations, especially regarding the effort required for participatory scenario building and the availability of stakeholders

A scenario approach to the energy-mix in the Netherlands. An outlook for the year 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraanje, I.M.M.

1996-08-01

The research in this thesis gives an answer to the question: What are the options for the energy mix for the Netherlands in 2025. The energy mix, however, depends on the total energy demand. A scenario approach is used to determine the total demand. The scenarios have been developed by identifying the most important and uncertain driving forces: Dutch economic development, Dutch government policy and the international political situation. Assigning different values to these driving forces have resulted in three scenarios: Market-forces-drive-on, Europe-rules, and Crusade-against-destruction. To quantify the energy demand for each of these scenarios, growth rates of the energy demand have been used of the European Union scenarios that match with our scenarios. Once the energy demand is known, the determination of the energy mix has been performed by answering three questions. First, what is the relative contribution of the different energy carriers (electricity, heat, fuel) in the demand of the end-user. Next, what kind of conversion technologies will be required. Finally, what type of energy sources can be the input for those conversion technologies. The scenarios developed in this study are instrumental in answering these questions. The sources construct the energy mix. The different options for the energy mix in 2025 show the following principal characteristics: The share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix stays limited (Market-forces-drive-on 7%, Europe-rules 13%, Crusade-against-destruction 4%); The share of fossil fuels remains large in all scenarios. Especially the dependence on natural gas stays large: Market-forces-drive-on 63%, Europe-rules 63%, Crusade-against-destruction 68%; The CO2-emissions will stabilize and amount with respect to 1994 (156 Mton) to: Market-forces-drive-on: + 11 Mton Europe-rules: 18 Mton Crusade-against-destruction: + 4 Mton. Finally, some comments are given on the current energy policy of the Dutch government. It is

Proceedings of 15th Forum: Energy Day in Croatia: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granic, G.; Jelavic, B.

2006-01-01

Energy perspectives are in the focus of the whole energy community. Facing te growing needs for energy, limits to reserves, terrorist of war threats, and climate changes is the main driver in searching for long-term solutions which would make energy development less uncertain and less risky. Technological development is one of the answers to energy problems, but it is not the only one. Enhancing energy efficiency is a social challenge that goes beyond technology problem. Equally, accepting locations for construction of energy facilities is also a social challenge, because, together with other social challenges, may give am answer how to develop stable energy industry. Energy security is synergy of various factors: energy market, infrastructure which facilitates good connectivity, diversification of resources, enhanced use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency, and it is important to stress that the only secure energy systems are well-balanced ones. World Energy Council initiated the global study Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 with the aim to overview the future energy at global and regional levels

Proceedings of 15th Forum: Energy Day in Croatia: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Granic, G; Jelavic, B

2006-07-01

Energy perspectives are in the focus of the whole energy community. Facing te growing needs for energy, limits to reserves, terrorist of war threats, and climate changes is the main driver in searching for long-term solutions which would make energy development less uncertain and less risky. Technological development is one of the answers to energy problems, but it is not the only one. Enhancing energy efficiency is a social challenge that goes beyond technology problem. Equally, accepting locations for construction of energy facilities is also a social challenge, because, together with other social challenges, may give am answer how to develop stable energy industry. Energy security is synergy of various factors: energy market, infrastructure which facilitates good connectivity, diversification of resources, enhanced use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency, and it is important to stress that the only secure energy systems are well-balanced ones. World Energy Council initiated the global study Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 with the aim to overview the future energy at global and regional levels.

Interregional power transmission: a component in planning for renewable energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krueger Nielsen, S.; Soerensen, B.

2000-01-01

We discuss the role played by interregional power transmission on the basis of recent scenario work. In a project dealing with long-term planning for energy efficiency and renewable energy in Europe we modelled a scenario for the present 15 EU countries' energy system in 2050. The basis for the scenario is the concept of 'fair pricing' for energy services, meaning that the price of energy should reflect all externalities, but not otherwise be taxed or subsidized. The project assessed resource availability and expected technology price developments over time for a number of energy-related technologies, both on the supply side, the intermediate conversion chain and on the demand side. Among these, transmission technologies play an important role, both in smoothing out renewable energy supplies within the European Union region, and also allowing substantial import of energy from countries outside the EU having a surplus of renewable energy based power. (orig.)

Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pregger, Thomas; Nitsch, Joachim; Naegler, Tobias

2013-01-01

The transformation of the energy supply in Germany (the “Energiewende”) as described in the German Federal government’s ‘Energy Concept’ (Energiekonzept, 2010) is based on a political consensus about long-term targets for energy efficiency and renewable energies. The aim of this article is to present a consistent scenario for this transformation process reflecting the long-term implementation of renewable energies and the possible future structure of the German energy system as a whole. Structural and economic effects of this development are derived and discussed. It summarizes results of scenario analyses done by the department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center as part of a three-year research project for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. The underlying study provides a detailed data base reflecting a long-term roadmap for the energy system transformation in Germany. The scenarios show that the policy targets are consistent and can be achieved, if appropriate policy measures are to be implemented. The economic analysis shows the amount of investments and the strong market dynamics required for new generation technologies but also the huge economic benefits that can result from this development path in terms of fuel cost savings and lower fuel imports. - Highlights: • Long-term scenario for the German energy system according to the political targets. • Comparison of three variants with differing developments of the fleets of vehicles. • Analysis of economic effects: investments, generation and differential costs. • Importance of strategies in the sectors electricity, heat, and transportation. • Recommended measures for the successful implementation of the CO 2 reductions

Technology data for energy plants. Individual heating plants and energy transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2012-05-15

The present technology catalogue is published in co-operation between the Danish Energy Agency and Energinet.dk and includes technology descriptions for a number of technologies for individual heat production and energy transport. The primary objective of the technology catalogue is to establish a uniform, commonly accepted and up-to-date basis for the work with energy planning and the development of the energy sector, including future outlooks, scenario analyses and technical/economic analyses. The technology catalogue is thus a valuable tool in connection with energy planning and assessment of climate projects and for evaluating the development opportunities for the energy sector's many technologies, which can be used for the preparation of different support programmes for energy research and development. The publication of the technology catalogue should also be viewed in the light of renewed focus on strategic energy planning in municipalities etc. In that respect, the technology catalogue is considered to be an important tool for the municipalities in their planning efforts. (LN)

Integrating the views and perceptions of UK energy professionals in future energy scenarios to inform policymakers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkes, Gareth; Spataru, Catalina

2017-01-01

The Energy Institute (EI) developed its first Energy Barometer survey in 2015 which aims to understand professionals’ views and opinions of energy priorities, policies and technologies. 543 UK energy professionals from across the energy sector were surveyed. Following the survey, 79% of UK energy professionals believe their sector is not effectively communicating with the public. This suggests there is an urgent need to better understand how to use surveys in a more methodological way. Developed in conjunction with the EI, this paper presents the Energy Barometer survey methodology and results to achieve a better understanding of UK energy professionals’ current perceptions and future priorities. The paper makes two contributions to enhance the UK's energy debate. First, it provides the first results in a longitudinal assessment of energy professionals’ views of energy policy issues and discusses the implications for future policymaking. Second, it identifies opportunities for Energy Barometer findings to feed into scenarios development. A comparison with other studies was undertaken. It has been shown that the views of professionals working across the sector are aligned with decentralised approaches to decarbonisation. In particular, professionals expect action from policymakers to coordinate, engage with and encourage investment in energy efficiency. - Highlights: • 543 UK energy professionals from across the energy sector were surveyed. • Aiming to better understand views and opinions of energy priorities, policies and technologies. • A comparison of the methodology and results with other studies was undertaken. • Considers contributions of results to energy system scenario development. • Identifies particular need for increased energy efficiency investment.

Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Executive Summary [Italian version

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-11-01

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) is the International Energy Agency’s most ambitious publication on new developments in energy technology. It demonstrates how technologies – from electric vehicles to smart grids – can make a decisive difference in achieving the objective of limiting the global temperature rise to 2°C and enhancing energy security. ETP 2012 presents scenarios and strategies to 2050, with the aim of guiding decision makers on energy trends and what needs to be done to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future.

Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Executive Summary [French version

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-11-01

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) is the International Energy Agency’s most ambitious publication on new developments in energy technology. It demonstrates how technologies – from electric vehicles to smart grids – can make a decisive difference in achieving the objective of limiting the global temperature rise to 2°C and enhancing energy security. ETP 2012 presents scenarios and strategies to 2050, with the aim of guiding decision makers on energy trends and what needs to be done to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future.

Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Executive Summary [Spanish version

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-11-01

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) is the International Energy Agency’s most ambitious publication on new developments in energy technology. It demonstrates how technologies – from electric vehicles to smart grids – can make a decisive difference in achieving the objective of limiting the global temperature rise to 2°C and enhancing energy security. ETP 2012 presents scenarios and strategies to 2050, with the aim of guiding decision makers on energy trends and what needs to be done to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future.

Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Executive Summary [Arabic version

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-11-01

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) is the International Energy Agency’s most ambitious publication on new developments in energy technology. It demonstrates how technologies – from electric vehicles to smart grids – can make a decisive difference in achieving the objective of limiting the global temperature rise to 2°C and enhancing energy security. ETP 2012 presents scenarios and strategies to 2050, with the aim of guiding decision makers on energy trends and what needs to be done to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future.

Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Executive Summary [Portuguese version

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-11-01

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) is the International Energy Agency’s most ambitious publication on new developments in energy technology. It demonstrates how technologies – from electric vehicles to smart grids – can make a decisive difference in achieving the objective of limiting the global temperature rise to 2°C and enhancing energy security. ETP 2012 presents scenarios and strategies to 2050, with the aim of guiding decision makers on energy trends and what needs to be done to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future.

Long-term energy futures: the critical role of technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grubler, A.

1999-01-01

The paper briefly reviews the results of a 5-year study conducted by IIASA jointly with the World Energy Council (WEC) on long term-energy perspectives. After summarizing the study's main findings, the paper addresses the crucial role of technological change in the evolution of long-term energy futures and in responding to key long-term uncertainties in the domains of energy demand growth, economics, as well as environmental protection. Based on most recent empirical and methodological findings, long-term dynamics of technological change portray a number of distinct features that need to be taken account of in technology and energy policy. First, success of innovation efforts and ultimate outcomes of technological are uncertain. Second, new, improved technologies are not a free good, but require continued dedicated efforts. Third, technological knowledge (as resulting from R and D and accumulation of experience, i.e. technological learning) exhibits characteristics of (uncertain) increasing returns. Forth, due to innovation - diffusion lags, technological interdependence, and infrastructure needs (network externalities), rates of change in large-scale energy systems are necessarily slow. This implies acting sooner rather than later as a contigency policy to respond to long-term social, economic and environmental uncertainties, most notably possible climate change. Rather than picking technological 'winners' the results of the IIASA-WEC scenario studies are seen most appropriate to guide technology and R and D portfolio analysis. Nonetheless, robust persistent patterns of technological change invariably occur across all scenarios. Examples of primising groups of technologies are given. The crucial importance of meeting long-energy demand in developing countries, assuring large-scale infrastructure investments, maintaining a strong and diversified R AND D protfolio, as well as to dvise new institutional mechnisms for technology development and diffusion for instance

Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems - 15483

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuznetsov, V.; Fesenko, G.

2015-01-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21. century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled 'Global scenarios' is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21. century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries' different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies. (authors)

MEGASTAR: The Meaning of Energy Growth: An Assessment of Systems, Technologies, and Requirements

Science.gov (United States)

1974-01-01

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach that includes the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption for the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario. The total requirements and the energy subsystems for each scenario are assessed for their primary impacts in the areas of society, the environment, technology and the economy.

Hawai‘i Distributed Energy Resource Technologies for Energy Security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None, None

2012-09-30

HNEI has conducted research to address a number of issues important to move Hawai‘i to greater use of intermittent renewable and distributed energy resource (DER) technologies in order to facilitate greater use of Hawai‘i's indigenous renewable energy resources. Efforts have been concentrated on the Islands of Hawai‘i, Maui, and O‘ahu, focusing in three areas of endeavor: 1) Energy Modeling and Scenario Analysis (previously called Energy Road mapping); 2) Research, Development, and Validation of Renewable DER and Microgrid Technologies; and 3) Analysis and Policy. These efforts focused on analysis of the island energy systems and development of specific candidate technologies for future insertion into an integrated energy system, which would lead to a more robust transmission and distribution system in the state of Hawai‘i and eventually elsewhere in the nation.

Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-03-31

IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

Energy utilities and environment-related energy services in the year 2008. Scenario study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-05-01

Insight is given into of the developments in the sector energy distribution companies and the consequences for the demand for energy services. Next, an overview is given of which energy services should be developed to meet the changed needs of the market. Three scenarios have been set up and are discussed in this brochure: (1) a Steady State scenario (unchanged policy of energy distribution companies); (2) Alliance scenario (strategic cooperation between energy distribution companies and retailers and installation businesses); and (3) Autonomous Development scenario (energy distribution companies develop and offer new services)

Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF, Renewable Energy Technologies (RET, Clean Coal Maximum (CCM and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC, have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

1998-09-01

When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

Energy transition: from national scenarios to European policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathieu, Mathilde

2013-01-01

This thesis aims at seeing how an analysis of national scenarios of energy transition may contribute to the elaboration of European energy and climate policies. The author first identifies the characteristics of energy scenarios, and the relationship between a scenario considered as an object on the one hand, and a vision for the long term on the other hand. She proposes an analysis framework which enables a comparative analysis of scenarios in order to identify stakes and challenges for the future European policy. In the second part, the author presents three examples (Germany, United Kingdom and France) and discusses their political context and adopted scenarios. After an overview of existing European energy and climate policies, the results of the analysis are given for two specific sectors: transports and electricity

Performance of renewable energy technologies in the energy-environmental-economic continuum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guthrie, B.M.; Birkenheier, T.L.

1993-01-01

Projected cost-performance data are used to calculate the Canadian commercial potential of selected renewable energy technologies to the year 2010. Based on projected market penetration, the extent to which renewable energy can contribute to environmental initiatives is also examined. The potential for renewable energy to contribute to the Canadian electricity supply is limited neither by the state of the technology nor the extent of the resource available. Barriers to acceptance of renewables include high initial capital costs, intermittent nature of much of the energy supply, land requirements, onerous requirements for environmental assessments and licensing, and lack of government policies which consider the externalities involved in new energy supply. Environmental benefits which will drive the adoption of renewables in Canada include the sustainable nature of renewable resources, low environmental impacts, and suitability for integrated resource planning. In addition, the cost performance of renewable technologies is improving rapidly. Under base-case scenarios, at current buyback rates, only small hydro and biomass of the five renewable technologies examined has significant commercial potential in Canada. At buyback rates that reflect currently projected avoided costs plus an additional 2 cents per kWh as an environmental premium, all five renewable technologies except for photovoltaics have appreciable commercial potential achievable by 2010. The quantity of electrical energy displaced under this latter scenario is estimated at 49 TWh/y, or 7% of the projected total generation in Canada. 2 figs., 2 tabs

Scenario sketches for Nordic H{sub 2} Energy introduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eriksson, E.A. [FOI Defence Analysis, Stockholm (Sweden)

2003-12-01

This report departs from a set of external scenarios setting the context for a Nordic H2 energy introduction, and a set of H2 related socio-technical visions, amended and assessed by an expert workshop (Stockholm, August 2003). Based on this it attempts to outline a Nordic policy strategy aiming at as internationally leading a position in H2 energy as reasonable under different external conditions. Then this putative policy commitment is set against the nine context scenarios (three alternative stage-setting developments in the 2003-15 time frame and for each of these three alternative, more specifically energy-relevant developments for 2015-30). The result is that the prospects for H2 energy introduction differ widely across future developments. However, a policy strategy that combines RTD centres of excellence and large-scale socio-technical experimentation (e.g., demos and pilots) with polices that stimulate entrepreneurs to exploit niche markets and technology foresight and the like, not least to achieve bottom-up coordination. While strong policy interventions for H2 energy are conceivable under certain sets of external conditions, more typically it will have to win out in some type of competition. Therefore it is important that energy innovation policies be reasonably unbiased with respect to different energy forms rather than trying to prematurely pick winners. (au)

Energy Systems and Technologies for the coming Century

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sønderberg Petersen, Leif; Larsen, Hans Hvidtfeldt

for the extended utilisation of sustainable energy - Distributed energy production technologies such as fuel cells, hydrogen, bioenergy, wind, hydro, wave, solar and geothermal - Centralised energy production technologies such as clean coal technologies, CCS and nuclear - Renewable energy for the transport sector......Risø International Energy Conference 2011 took place 10 – 12 May 2011. The conference focused on: - Future global energy development options, scenarios and policy issues - Intelligent energy systems of the future, including the interaction between supply and end-use - New and emerging technologies...... and its integration in the energy system The proceedings are prepared from papers presented at the conference and received with corrections, if any, until the final deadline on 20-04-2011....

Introduction condition of a tokamak fusion power plant as an advanced technology in world energy scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiwatari, R.; Tokimatsu, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Okano, K.; Konishi, S.; Ogawa, Y.

2005-01-01

The present study reveals the following two introduction conditions of a tokamak fusion power plant in a long term world energy scenario. The first condition is the electric breakeven condition, which is required for the fusion energy to be recognized as a suitable candidate of an alternative energy source in the long term world energy scenario. As for the plasma performance (normalized beta value β N , confinement improvement factor for H-mode HH, the ratio of plasma density to Greenwald density limit fn GW ), the electric breakeven condition requires the simultaneous achievement of 1.2 N GW tmax =16 T, thermal efficiency η e =30%, and current drive power P NBI N ∼1.8, HH∼1.0, and fn GW ∼0.9, which correspond to the ITER reference operation parameters, have a strong potential to achieve the electric breakeven condition. The second condition is the economic breakeven condition, which is required to be selected as an alternative energy source. By using a long term world energy and environment model, the potential of the fusion energy in the long term world energy scenario is being investigated. Under the constraint of 550 ppm CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, a breakeven price for introduction of the fusion energy in the year 2050 is estimated from 65mill/kWh to 135mill/kWh, which is considered as the economic breakeven condition in the present study. Under the conditions of B tmax =16T, η e =40%, plant availability 60%, and a radial build with/without CS coil, the economic breakeven condition requires β N ∼2.5 for 135mill/kWh of higher breakeven price case and β N ∼6.0 for 65mill/kWh of lower breakeven price case. Finally, the demonstration of steady state operation with β N ∼3.0 in the ITER project leads to the prospect to achieve the upper region of breakeven price in the world energy scenario. (author)

Energy scenarios for European passenger transport in the year 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rienstra, S.A.; Nijkamp, P. [Systems and Control Group, Faculty of Mechanical and Marine Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)] Smokers, R.T.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

1995-11-01

In this paper four energy scenarios for West-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a baseline case is described and analysed. Next, for each scenario it is outlined how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various existing and future transport technologies and the corresponding modal split. Based on this information, expected energy consumption features of the various transport modes are described, data on the present fuel supply and electricity generation system are provided, and estimations of the future energy system are given. Then, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with the future passenger transport systems are calculated and these impacts are compared with the current system. The conclusion is that a large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in several ways, but that each option will cause many problems because drastic policy measures will have to be introduced, which may affect economic growth and the lifestyles of individuals. 4 figs., 11 tabs., 22 refs.

Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

1996-12-31

The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

A renewable energy and hydrogen scenario for northern Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Bent

2008-01-01

renewable energy supply system is demonstrated with the use of the seasonal reservoir-based hydrocomponents in the northern parts of the region. The outcome of the competition between biofuels and hydrogen in the transportation sector is dependent on the development of viable fuel cells and on efficient......A scenario based entirely on renewable energy with possible use of hydrogen as an energy carrier is constructed for a group of North European countries. Temporal simulation of the demand-supply matching is carried out for various system configurations. The role of hydrogen technologies for energy...... of energy trade between the countries, due to the different endowments of different countries with particular renewable energy sources, and to the particular benefit that intermittent energy sources, such as wind and solar, can derive from exchange of power. The establishment of a smoothly functioning...

Technology assessment of solar energy utilization

Science.gov (United States)

Jaeger, F.

1985-11-01

The general objectives and methods of Technology Assessment (TA) are outlined. Typical analysis steps of a TA for solar energy are reviewed: description of the technology and its further development; identification of impact areas; analysis of boundary conditions and definition of scenarios; market penetration of solar technologies; projection of consequences in areas of impact; and assessment of impacts and identification of options for action.

Emerging Requirements for Technology Management: A Sector-based Scenario Planning Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Patrick Philbin

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Identifying the emerging requirements for technology management will help organisations to prepare for the future and remain competitive. Indeed technology management as a discipline needs to develop and respond to societal and industrial needs as well as the corresponding technology challenges. Therefore, following a review of technology forecasting methodologies, a sector-based scenario planning approach has been used to derive the emerging requirements for technology management. This structured framework provided an analytical lens to focus on the requirements for managing technology in the healthcare, energy and higher education sectors over the next 5-10 years. These requirements include the need for new business models to support the adoption of technologies; integration of new technologies with existing delivery channels; management of technology options including R&D project management; technology standards, validation and interoperability; and decision-making tools to support technology investment.

Scenarios for the Strategic Planning of Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volker Grienitz

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Technology scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. A multidimensional requirement catalogue for specific product- market- combinations represents the fundamental building block for the ranking of particular material- components and technologies. The following analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst them provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios and roadmap and a regular monitoring process are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation technology strategies.

The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

Modeling the Greek energy system: Scenarios of clean energy use and their implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roinioti, Argiro; Koroneos, Christopher; Wangensteen, Ivar

2012-01-01

The Greek energy system is one of the most carbon intensive energy systems in Europe. Hydrocarbons and solid fuels (lignite) cover over 80% of the final energy demand. The main objective of this work is to build energy scenarios for the future – with a focus on the electricity production system – and explore how these scenarios are reflected in economic, environmental terms and in terms of energy efficiency. The main tool which is used in the scenario analysis is LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System). The scenarios are essentially the result of developing “storylines” driven by the uncertainties which cannot be controlled by the analysts or decision makers, and technical and non-technical options the analyst or decision maker may choose from. A set of uncertainties is considered as a possible future or storyline, and one or more options can be selected as a possible strategy. The combination of a storyline and a specific strategy gives a scenario. The main uncertainties for the Greek energy system are identified and various technical options are explored. Rather than using a model which leads to optimum strategies from a set of alternatives, the model in use will apply different strategies. - Highlights: ► A demand-driven approach was used to build energy scenarios for the Greek interconnected system. ► Each Scenario consists of a possible future and a strategy. ► High RES penetration will decrease CO 2 emissions but it will also increase capital cost. ► Carbon intensity is reduced in all the scenarios.

Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the Åland Islands in 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Child, Michael; Nordling, Alexander; Breyer, Christian

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A fully sustainable energy system for the Åland Islands is possible by 2030. • 100% RE-based domestic production can be achieved with or without reliance on imported energy. • A highly electrified transport sector results in lower annualised energy system costs. • Highly electrified transport may promote employment and international partnerships. • Energy system scenarios were simulated for the Åland Islands with the EnergyPLAN modelling tool. - Abstract: A fully sustainable energy system for the Åland islands is possible by 2030 based on the assumptions in this study. Several scenarios were constructed for the future energy system based on various combinations of domestic production of wind and solar photovoltaic power, expanded domestic energy storage solutions, electrified transport, and strategic energy carrier trade. Hourly analysis of scenarios using the EnergyPLAN tool shows that annualised costs of operating a future sustainable energy system for the year 2030 range between 225 and 247 M€/a compared to 229 M€/a for the business as usual case. However, this result is highly dependent on how vehicle and battery costs are accounted. A scenario featuring a highly electrified transport sector, including a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic forms of mobility, was among the most cost competitive solutions due to high levels of flexibility and electric storage harnessed in the energy system. In this scenario cost reductions were achieved as high capacities of electric vehicle battery storage resulted in less need for seasonal storage and synthetic fuel production in the form of Power-to-Gas technologies and offshore wind power capacity. Results also indicate that 100% renewable energy-based domestic energy production can be achieved in Åland, with or without reliance on imported energy carriers, such as sustainable biofuels or electricity. A demonstration of a highly electrified transport sector may also offer Åland society

Analysis on Japan's long-term energy outlook considering massive deployment of variable renewable energy under nuclear energy scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

2012-01-01

This paper investigates Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050 considering massive deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) system and wind power generation under nuclear energy scenario. The extensive introduction of PV system and wind power system are expected to play an important role in enhancing electricity supply security after Fukushima Nuclear Power Accident which has increased the uncertainty of future additional construction of nuclear power plant in Japan. On these backgrounds, we develop integrated energy assessment model comprised of both econometric energy demand and supply model and optimal power generation mix model. The latter model is able to explicitly analyze the impact of output fluctuation in variable renewable in detailed time resolution at 10 minutes on consecutive 365 days, incorporating the role of stationary battery technology. Simulation results reveal that intermittent fluctuation derived from high penetration level of those renewables is controlled by quick load following operation by natural gas combined cycle power plant, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary battery technology and the output suppression of PV and wind power. The results show as well that massive penetration of the renewables does not necessarily require the comparable scale of stationary battery capacity. Additionally, on the scenario which assumes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants which lifetime are over 40 years, required PV capacity in 2050 amounts to more than double of PV installment potential in both building and abandoned farmland area. (author)

World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030. WETO 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

Starting from a set of clear key assumptions on economic activity, population and hydrocarbon resources, WETO describes in detail scenarios for the evolution of World and European energy systems, power generation technologies and impacts of climate change policy in the main world regions or countries.It presents a coherent framework to analyse the energy, technology and environment trends and issues over the period to 2030, focusing on Europe in a world context. Three of the key results of this work are: (1) in a Reference scenario, i.e.if no strong specific policy initiatives and measures are taken, world CO2 emissions are expected to double in 2030 and, with a share of 90%, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy system; (2) the great majority of the increase in oil production will come from OPEC countries and the EU will rely predominantly on natural gas imported from the CIS; and (3) as the largest growing energy demand and CO2 emissions originate from developing countries (mainly China and India), Europe will have to intensify its co-operation, particularly in terms of transfer of technologies. The analysis of long-term scenarios and a particular attention to the energy world context, is an important element for efficient energy, technology and environment policies towards a sustainable world

Risoe energy report 9. Non-fossil energy technologies in 2050 and beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsen, Hans; Soenderberg Petersen, L.

2010-11-01

This Risoe Energy Report, the ninth in a series that began in 2002, analyses the long-term outlook for energy technologies in 2050 in a perspective where the dominating role of fossil fuels has been taken over by non-fossil fuels, and CO 2 emissions have been reduced to a minimum. Against this background, the report addresses issues like: 1) How much will today's non-fossil energy technologies have evolved up to 2050? 2) Which non-fossil energy technologies can we bring into play in 2050, including emerging technologies? 3) What are the implications for the energy system? Further, Volume 9 analyses other central issues for the future energy supply: 4) The role of non-fossil energy technologies in relation to security of supply and sustainability 5) System aspects in 2050 6) Examples of global and Danish energy scenarios in 2050 The report is based on the latest research results from Risoe DTU, together with available international literature and reports. (Author)

Risoe energy report 9. Non-fossil energy technologies in 2050 and beyond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, Hans; Soenderberg Petersen, L. (eds.)

2010-11-15

This Risoe Energy Report, the ninth in a series that began in 2002, analyses the long-term outlook for energy technologies in 2050 in a perspective where the dominating role of fossil fuels has been taken over by non-fossil fuels, and CO{sub 2} emissions have been reduced to a minimum. Against this background, the report addresses issues like: 1) How much will today's non-fossil energy technologies have evolved up to 2050? 2) Which non-fossil energy technologies can we bring into play in 2050, including emerging technologies? 3) What are the implications for the energy system? Further, Volume 9 analyses other central issues for the future energy supply: 4) The role of non-fossil energy technologies in relation to security of supply and sustainability 5) System aspects in 2050 6) Examples of global and Danish energy scenarios in 2050 The report is based on the latest research results from Risoe DTU, together with available international literature and reports. (Author)

Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuznetsov Vladimir

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21st century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled “Global scenarios” is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21st century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries’ different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies.

Energy efficiency improvement potentials and a low energy demand scenario for the global industrial sector

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kermeli, Katerina; Graus, Wina H J; Worrell, Ernst

2014-01-01

The adoption of energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce industrial energy use. This study estimates the future industrial energy consumption under two energy demand scenarios: (1) a reference scenario that follows business as usual trends and (2) a low energy demand scenario that takes

Role of technologies in energy-related CO2 mitigation in China within a climate-protection world: A scenarios analysis using REMIND

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Shuwei; Bauer, Nico; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The augmented REMIND model is used to study the role of energy technologies under a carbon tax. • The scale and timing of fossil fuels with CCS, nuclear, and renewables are examined. • CCS is important but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited. • The effectiveness of nuclear is strongly linked to its cost performance. • Renewable energy is a long-term mitigation option. - Abstract: In a world with the need of climate protection through emission reduction, China’s domestic mitigation will be put on the national agenda. The large-scale deployment of innovative technologies induced by climate policies is a key determinant for reducing emissions in an effective and efficient manner. A distinguishing feature of the Chinese energy sector (especially electricity generation), is that investment costs are significantly lower than in other world regions. Represented in the methodological framework of the augmented REMIND model, three promising mitigation technologies (also known as technology clusters) in the electricity sector: CCS with advanced coal-generation technologies, nuclear, and renewables are the focus of this study. The scenarios are designed to analyze the roles of these technologies and their associated economic impacts under a climate policy (i.e., a carbon tax). Our results indicate that: (1)Technology policies improving the techno-economic features of low-carbon technologies are insufficient to restrain China’s increasing emissions. (2)Carbon-pricing policies can effectively reduce emissions by making low-carbon options more competitive than conventional fossil fuel alternatives. In the global carbon tax regime framed in this paper, China’s mitigation potential is larger than that of any of other region and the peak of emissions occurs earlier (by 2020) and is 50% lower than in the BASE scenario. (3)CCS is important, but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited to the near- to mid-term future. It

Closing the gap between short- and long-term scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, F. L.; Rogner, H.-H.

2005-01-01

Many scenarios published in recent years explore the driving forces and assess plausible ranges of global energy use and the resources they draw on. Some scenarios (e.g., OECD IEA, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development International Energy Agency, 2004) focus on the next decade or two and project the evolution of world energy demand, supply as well as the resources, technologies, and prices to match them. Other scenarios (e.g., the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2000) explore the long term with a view to resource availability and depletion, technological transformations, and environmental concerns, predominantly climate change. A persistent gap (see Figure 1) can be observed in the projections for nuclear energy: near-term scenarios typically project a flat or slightly declining contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply whereas medium- and long-term scenarios anticipate significant increases. The magnitude of the gap between the OECD IEA (2002) projections and the median of the 40 IPCC SRES scenarios for the year 2020 amounts to almost 300 GWe installed capacity. Reasons for the gap originate in the differences between the analytical frameworks (including projection techniques) adopted by the short- and long-term studies. Another, closely related reason is the difference in the underlying assumptions, particularly their relations to recent trends and the current situation. In addition, near-term projections are heavily influenced by the social context (perceived unpopularity or outright rejection of nuclear power after Chernobyl), political factors (government pronouncements and policies at the national level, diplomacy and balancing of national positions at international organizations), economic aspects (energy market deregulation and liberalization unveiling excess capacities; financial risks), technology matters (the role of learning, definition of

Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

2016-01-01

studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

Global energy context: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beretta, Gian Paolo

2006-01-01

After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

The impacts of wind technology advancement on future global energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Xiaochun; Ma, Chun; Song, Xia; Zhou, Yuyu; Chen, Weiping

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Integrated assessment model perform a series of scenarios of technology advances. • Explore the potential roles of wind energy technology advance in global energy. • Technology advance impacts on energy consumption and global low carbon market. • Technology advance influences on global energy security and stability. - Abstract: To avoid additional global warming and environmental damage, energy systems need to rely on the use of low carbon technologies like wind energy. However, supply uncertainties, production costs, and energy security are the main factors considered by the global economies when reshaping their energy systems. Here, we explore the potential roles of wind energy technology advancement in future global electricity generations, costs, and energy security. We use an integrated assessment model performing a series of technology advancement scenarios. The results show that double of the capital cost reduction causes 40% of generation increase and 10% of cost ​decrease on average in the long-term global wind electricity market. Today’s technology advancement could bring us the benefit of increasing electricity production in the future 40–50 years, and decreasing electricity cost in the future 90–100 years. The technology advancement of wind energy can help to keep global energy security and stability. An aggressive development and deployment of wind energy could in the long-term avoid 1/3 of gas and 1/28 of coal burned, and keep 1/2 biomass and 1/20 nuclear fuel saved from the global electricity system. The key is that wind resources are free and carbon-free. The results of this study are useful in broad coverage ranges from innovative technologies and systems of renewable energy to the economic industrial and domestic use of energy with no or minor impact on the environment.

Costs involved in the expansion of renewable energies. A meta-analysis of scenarios; Kosten des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien. Eine Metaanalyse von Szenarien

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pahle, Michael; Knopf, Brigitte; Tietjen, Oliver; Schmid, Eva [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany)

2012-09-15

This study investigates current scenarios for a long-term transformation of the energy system towards high shares of renewable energy sources (RES) with a focus the associated costs. The scenarios include different regional scopes (Germany, Europe, and World) and were selected according to the following criteria: a minimum share of 80% RES electricity production in the power sector in 2050 and relevance in the public debate. Total transformation costs consist of a number of components, and scenarios are selective in terms of covered components as well as applied methodologies. For that reason total transformation costs are not comparable across scenarios. This can only be done for specific investment costs of RES technologies, which all scenarios rely on and treat in a consistent manner. Moreover, it can be assumed that specific investment costs are an essential driver of total transition costs. The essential mechanism for the development of future specific investment costs is the ''learning'' inherent to RES technologies. It is most widely used in the form of learning-by-doing, which assumes that specific investment costs decrease with increasing cumulated installed capacity. In fact, all investigated scenarios take account of learning-by-doing, by which the costs of all technologies are reduced until 2050. The largest reductions occur for solar energy (PV), which has abundant worldwide potential and a still relatively low degree of technological maturity. In contrast, the smallest reductions occur for wind energy (onshore), which is already mature and where expected technological progress is thus limited. Regarding capacity deployment, another relevant factor is the economic potential available in the respective region. They give rise to wind energy as the major technology in Germany, whereas solar energy dominates on the global level. For Europe the situation is more ambiguous, but solar energy is always an important option in case imports

Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2013-01-01

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

Energy systems and technologies for the coming century. Proceedings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soenderberg Petersen, L; Larsen, Hans [eds.

2011-05-15

Risoe International Energy Conference 2011 took place 10 - 12 May 2011. The conference focused on: 1) Future global energy development options, scenarios and policy issues. 2) Intelligent energy systems of the future, including the interaction between supply and end-use. 3) New and emerging technologies for the extended utilisation of sustainable energy. 4) Distributed energy production technologies such as fuel cells, hydrogen, bioenergy, wind, hydro, wave, solar and geothermal. 5) Centralised energy production technologies such as clean coal technologies, CCS and nuclear. 6) Renewable energy for the transport sector and its integration in the energy system The proceedings are prepared from papers presented at the conference and received with corrections, if any, until the final deadline on 20-04-2011. (Author)

The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flynn, W.T.

1986-12-01

This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varela, M.

2001-01-01

The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1977-01-01

An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pasaoglu, Guzay; Honselaar, Michel; Thiel, Christian

2012-01-01

The continuous rise in demand for road transportation has a significant effect on Europe's oil dependency and emissions of greenhouse gases. Alternative fuels and vehicle technology can mitigate these effects. This study analyses power-train deployment scenarios for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in EU-27 until 2050. It considers European policy developments on vehicle CO 2 emissions, bio-energy mandates and reductions in the CO 2 footprint of the European energy mix and translates these into comprehensive scenarios for the road transport sector. It quantifies and assesses the potential impact of these scenarios on well-to-wheel (WtW) CO 2 emission reductions primary energy demand evolution, and cost aspects for the prospective vehicle owners. The study reveals that, under the deployed scenarios, the use of bio-fuel blends, technological learning and the deployment of hybrids, battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell vehicles can decrease WtW CO 2 emissions in EU-27 passenger road transport by 35–57% (compared to 2010 levels) and primary energy demand by 29–51 Mtoe as they would benefit from a future assumed decarbonised electricity and hydrogen mix in Europe. Learning effects can lead to acceptable payback periods for vehicle owners of electric drive vehicles. - Highlights: ► Power-train penetration scenarios for 2010–2050 passenger road transport in Europe. ► A dedicated tool is developed to analyse H 2 production and distribution mix till 2050. ► Alternative vehicles can drastically reduce CO 2 emissions and energy demand. ► Electric vehicles could become cost competitive to conventional vehicles by 2030. ► Policies needed to create adequate momentum and guarantee decarbonised transport.

Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

2005-09-07

For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

Energy, technology and climatic policy: the world perspectives at the 2030 prospect. Key messages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This paper comments the different points of the reference scenario described in the WETO study (World energy, technology and climate policy outlook). This scenario describes a world energy situation, assuming a continuation of the present day trends and structural changes. A comment is made for each of the following aspects of the scenario: world energy demand, share of fossil fuels in the world energy supplies, world CO 2 emissions, petroleum reserves, world petroleum, gas and coal productions, petroleum and gas prices trend, end-use energy demand, power production and natural gas share in power generation. Then, the document analyses the impact of changes linked with hydrocarbon resources and technology developments: reduction of hydrocarbon resources, increase of gas resources, acceleration of technological developments in power generation. A third part analyzes the natural gas market of the European Union in a world perspective: market, reserves, demand, supply risks. Finally, the last part presents the impact of environmental policies in the case of a CO 2 tax and in the case of a carbon abatement scenario. (J.S.)

Implications of renewable energy technologies in the Bangladesh power sector. Long-term planning strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mondal, Alam Hossain

2010-10-04

Bangladesh is facing daunting energy challenges: Security concerns over growing fuel imports, limited domestic energy resources for power generation, and projected demands for electricity that will exceed domestic supply capabilities within a few years. By acknowledging the potential of renewable energy resources, the country could possibly meet its unprecedented energy demand, thus increasing electricity accessibility for all and enhancing energy security through their advancement. The integration of renewable energy technologies in the power sector through national energy planning would, therefore, be a step in the right direction, not only for sustainable development of the country but also as part of Bangladesh's responsibility toward the global common task of environmental protection. This study estimates the potential of renewable energy sources for power generation in Bangladesh from the viewpoint of different promising available technologies. Future long-term electricity demand in Bangladesh is projected based on three economic growth scenarios. The energy planning model LEAP is applied to forecast the energy requirements from 2005 to 2035. Different policy scenarios, e.g., accelerated renewable energy production, null coal import, CO2 emission reduction targets and carbon taxes in the power sector from 2005 to 2035 are explored. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL model. Prospects for the power sector development of the country are identified, which ensure energy security and mitigate environmental impacts. The technical potential of grid-connected solar photovoltaic and wind energy are estimated at 50174 MW and 4614 MW, respectively. The potential of energy from biomass and small hydro power plants is estimated at 566 MW and 125 MW, respectively. Total electricity consumption was 18 TWh in 2005 and is projected to increase about 7 times to 132 TWh by 2035 in the low GDP growth scenario. In the

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Sustainable energy prices and growth. Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlroth, Sofia; Hoejer, Mattias

2007-01-01

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they do not, mostly - they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low

Storing energy for cooling demand management in tropical climates: A techno-economic comparison between different energy storage technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comodi, Gabriele; Carducci, Francesco; Sze, Jia Yin; Balamurugan, Nagarajan; Romagnoli, Alessandro

2017-01-01

This paper addresses the role of energy storage in cooling applications. Cold energy storage technologies addressed are: Li-Ion batteries (Li-Ion EES), sensible heat thermal energy storage (SHTES); phase change material (PCM TES), compressed air energy storage (CAES) and liquid air energy storage (LAES). Batteries and CAES are electrical storage systems which run the cooling systems; SHTES and PCM TES are thermal storage systems which directly store cold energy; LAES is assessed as a hybrid storage system which provides both electricity (for cooling) and cold energy. A hybrid quantitative-qualitative comparison is presented. Quantitative comparison was investigated for different sizes of daily cooling energy demand and three different tariff scenarios. A techno-economic analysis was performed to show the suitability of the different storage systems at different scales. Three parameters were used (Pay-back period, Savings-per-energy-unit and levelized-cost-of-energy) to analyze and compare the different scenarios. The qualitative analysis was based on five comparison criteria (Complexity, Technology Readiness Level, Sustainability, Flexibility and Safety). Results showed the importance of weighing the pros and cons of each technology to select a suitable cold energy storage system. Techno-economic analysis highlighted the fundamental role of tariff scenario: a greater difference between peak and off-peak electricity tariff leads to a shorter payback period of each technology. - Highlights: • Techno-economic evaluation of energy storage solutions for cooling applications. • Comparison between five energy storage (EES, SHTES, PCM, CAES, LAES) is performed. • Qualitative and quantitative performance parameters were used for the analysis. • LAES/PCM can be valid alternatives to more established technologies EES, SHTES, CAES. • Tariffs, price arbitrage and investment cost play a key role in energy storage spread.

World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030 - WETO

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

WETO describes in detail scenarios for the evolution of World and European energy systems, power generation technologies and impacts of climate change policy in the main world regions or countries. It presents a coherent framework to analyse the energy, technology and environment trends and issues over the period to 2030, focusing on Europe in a world context. The document highlights three key topics. First, in a Reference scenario, i.e. if no strong specific policy initiatives and measures are taken, world CO 2 emissions are expected to double in 2030 and, with a share of 90%, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy system. Secondly, the great majority of the increase in oil production will come from OPEC countries and the EU will rely predominantly on natural gas imported from the CIS. Lastly, as the largest growing energy demand and CO 2 emissions originate from developing countries (mainly China and India), Europe will have to intensify its co-operation, particularly in terms of transfer of technologies. (A.L.B.)

Atmospheric and geological CO2 damage costs in energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smekens, K.E.L.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

2006-05-01

Geological carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is currently seriously considered for addressing, in the near term, the problem of climate change. CCS technology is available today and is expected to become an increasingly affordable CO2 abatement alternative. Whereas the rapidly growing scientific literature on CCS as well as experimental and commercial practice demonstrate the technological and economic feasibility of implementing this clean fossil fuel option on a large scale, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the risks and environmental externalities of geological storage of CO2. This paper assesses the effects of including CCS damage costs in a long-term energy scenario analysis for Europe. An external cost sensitivity analysis is performed with a bottom-up energy technology model that accounts not only for CCS technologies but also for their external costs. Our main conclusion is that in a business-as-usual scenario (i.e. without climate change intervention or externality internalisation), CCS technologies are likely to be deployed at least to some extent, mainly in the power generation sector, given the economic benefits of opportunities such as enhanced coal bed methane, oil and gas recovery. Under a strict climate (CO2 emissions) constraint, CCS technologies are deployed massively. With the simultaneous introduction of both CO2 and CCS taxation in the power sector, designed to internalise the external atmospheric and geological effects of CO2 emissions and storage, respectively, we find that CCS will only be developed if the climate change damage costs are at least of the order of 100 euro/t CO2 or the CO2 storage damage costs not more than a few euro/t CO2. When the internalised climate change damage costs are as high as 67 euro/t CO2, the expensive application of CCS to biomass-fuelled power plants (with negative net CO2 emissions) proves the most effective CCS alternative to reduce CO2 emissions, rather than CCS applied to fossil

Interactions of energy technology development and new energy exploitation with water technology development in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liang, Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu

2011-01-01

Interactions of energy policies with water technology development in China are investigated using a hybrid input-output model and scenario analysis. The implementation of energy policies and water technology development can produce co-benefits for each other. Water saving potential of energy technology development is much larger than that of new energy exploitation. From the viewpoint of proportions of water saving co-benefits of energy policies, energy sectors benefit the most. From the viewpoint of proportions of energy saving and CO 2 mitigation co-benefits of water technology development, water sector benefits the most. Moreover, economic sectors are classified into four categories concerning co-benefits on water saving, energy saving and CO 2 mitigation. Sectors in categories 1 and 2 have big direct co-benefits. Thus, they can take additional responsibility for water and energy saving and CO 2 mitigation. If China implements life cycle materials management, sectors in category 3 can also take additional responsibility for water and energy saving and CO 2 mitigation. Sectors in category 4 have few co-benefits from both direct and accumulative perspectives. Thus, putting additional responsibility on sectors in category 4 might produce pressure for their economic development. -- Highlights: ► Energy policies and water technology development can produce co-benefits for each other. ► For proportions of water saving co-benefits of energy policies, energy sectors benefit the most. ► For proportions of energy saving and CO 2 mitigation co-benefits of water policy, water sector benefits the most. ► China’s economic sectors are classified into four categories for policy implementation at sector scale.

The blessings of energy efficiency in an enhanced EU sustainability scenario. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lechtenboehmer, Stefan

2007-01-01

Although the anticipated 'end of cheap oil' has boosted the interest in energy efficiency as a cornerstone of energy and climate strategies, it is usually taken into account on the basis of rather narrowly defined cost-benefit considerations. As a consequence, substantial ancillary benefits are usually barely considered.In a recent study for the European Parliament (EP), the authors assessed two enhanced climate strategies compared to a more conventional strategy. One enhanced climate policy scenario relies, in particular, on raising the annual pace of energy efficiency improvement. The other aims at a radical boost of the market share of renewable energy forms, which, however, presupposes an equally radical improvement of energy efficiency.The present article presents the scenario results and places them in the context of risk characterisation of the considered climate policy scenarios. Risks of international turmoil and energy price hikes could be reduced if dependency rates for fossil fuel imports went down. A more ambitious climate policy can also strengthen the EU position in post-Kyoto global climate agreements and a moderated need for emission trading can, for example, reduce conflicting pressures on clean technology transfer. On the other hand, the implementation of the efficiency strategy will entail increased domestic risks because it will involve a re-prioritisation of resource allocation and will thus affect the current distribution of wealth in both the energy sector and some other closely related sectors.The article outlines the main drivers behind the ambitious energy efficiency scenario and it attaches tentative price tags to the ancillary effects, with special emphasis on the above sketched swapping of risks. It will, therefore, strongly argue for a more holistic view, which underscores the need for political action and the benefits of such proactive policies in favour of energy efficiency

Emerging energy-efficient technologies for industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worrell, Ernst; Martin, Nathan; Price, Lynn; Ruth, Michael; Elliott, Neal; Shipley, Anna; Thorn, Jennifer

2001-01-01

For this study, we identified about 175 emerging energy-efficient technologies in industry, of which we characterized 54 in detail. While many profiles of individual emerging technologies are available, few reports have attempted to impose a standardized approach to the evaluation of the technologies. This study provides a way to review technologies in an independent manner, based on information on energy savings, economic, non-energy benefits, major market barriers, likelihood of success, and suggested next steps to accelerate deployment of each of the analyzed technologies. There are many interesting lessons to be learned from further investigation of technologies identified in our preliminary screening analysis. The detailed assessments of the 54 technologies are useful to evaluate claims made by developers, as well as to evaluate market potentials for the United States or specific regions. In this report we show that many new technologies are ready to enter the market place, or are currently under development, demonstrating that the United States is not running out of technologies to improve energy efficiency and economic and environmental performance, and will not run out in the future. The study shows that many of the technologies have important non-energy benefits, ranging from reduced environmental impact to improved productivity. Several technologies have reduced capital costs compared to the current technology used by those industries. Non-energy benefits such as these are frequently a motivating factor in bringing technologies such as these to market. Further evaluation of the profiled technologies is still needed. In particular, further quantifying the non-energy benefits based on the experience from technology users in the field is important. Interactive effects and inter-technology competition have not been accounted for and ideally should be included in any type of integrated technology scenario, for it may help to better evaluate market

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retèl Valesca P

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

Parameter variation and scenario analysis in impact assessments of emerging energy technologies

OpenAIRE

Breunig, Hanna Marie

2015-01-01

There is a global need for energy technologies that reduce the adverse impacts of societal progress and that address today's challenges without creating tomorrow's problems. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) can support technology developers in achieving these prerequisites of sustainability by providing a systems perspective. However, modeling the early-stage scale up and impacts of technology systems may lead to unreliable or incomplete results due to a lack of representative technical, s...

Energy perspectives of the France by 2020-2050. Energy scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-09-01

The aim of the working group was to realize quantitative approaches of the french energy system by 2020-2050 supporting the reflexions of the Energy Commission. The presented scenario are not prevision of the future. They just allow, in function of the hypothesis and the models used, to establish an approach of the consequences in term of the final energy demand. Two simulation tools were used and described in the chapter 3: Medpro-Poles and Markal-Times. The scenario are analyzed in the chapters 4 and 5. Results allow to see how the proposed measures are sufficient to reach in France the main objectives proposed by the european union. (A.L.B.)

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary

EnerFuture Energy Scenarios to 2035 'Understanding our Energy Future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting - February 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

The EnerFuture service provides projections to 2035 of energy supply and demand across the world, powered by the POLES model, to help you with what to expect in the energy industry in the mid-term. Our energy forecasting team have developed three key energy scenarios (Balance, Emergence and Renaissance) to illustrate possible futures. Balance scenario: Balance provides an outlook of the energy system up to 2035 based on current policies and trends. Sustained growth of China and other emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but confirmed energy policy commitments in several regions play a key role in controlling the pace of growth. However, non-coordinated policies result in soaring CO_2 emissions across the world and energy prices rise. Emergence scenario: This scenario explores the implications of more stringent climate policies, with more ambitious efforts on energy efficiency, initiatives to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and a real emergence of renewable technologies. Europe goes beyond its -20% targets by 2020, and the OECD and emerging countries meet their Copenhagen objectives. Following this, a new green deal is launched to reduce world emissions by a factor of 2 by 2050. Renaissance scenario: With strong efforts in the exploitation and production of unconventional oil and gas resources, the world encounters a fossil fuels renaissance with the appearance of new key actors and ultimately new geopolitical configurations changing the energy independence of several countries. For climate efforts, this new paradigm leads to progressively weaker policies. Further analysis and key findings are available here: - Increasing economic activity and wealth drives energy consumption, in a balance between energy prices and innovation; - As Non-OECD exceeds OECD oil demand, massive financial flows underlie the shifts in global oil trade; - Optimistic resource assumptions and moderate production costs would lead to an oil production Renaissance

The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barron, Robert; McJeon, Haewon

2015-01-01

This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO 2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO 2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO 2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

2014-01-01

The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

Macro-economic and energy scenarios for Japan through the long-term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankin, Shuichi

1986-03-01

As one of studies and systems analyses on the role of VHTR and process heat utilization in future energy systems, long-term macro economic and energy scenarios of Japan until the year 2030 have been generated. This paper presents,; 1) the outline of the long-term macro econometric model and the energy system dynamics model by which these scenarios were generated, 2) back grounds and prospects on future societies of Japan and exogeneous assumptions for calculations, and 3) macro energy and economic scenarios generated. Reflecting the present economic prospects, these scenarios are seemed to be of extremely low-growth type, however, the role of VHTR and its energy systems could be prospected clealy to play a large and important role within these scenario regions. Basic philosophies of scenario generations are also mentioned in this paper. (author)

The 2 oC scenario-A sustainable world energy perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewitt, Wolfram; Simon, Sonja; Graus, Wina; Teske, Sven; Zervos, Arthouros; Schaefer, Oliver

2007-01-01

A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 o C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 o C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%

The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang

2007-08-01

While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.

Future implications of China's energy-technology choices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, E.D.; Wu Zongxin; DeLaquil, Pat; Chen Wenying; Gao Pengfei

2003-01-01

This paper summarizes an assessment of future energy-technology strategies for China that explored the prospects for China to continue its social and economic development while ensuring national energy-supply security and promoting environmental sustainability over the next 50 years. The MARKAL energy-system modeling tool was used to build a model of China's energy system representing all sectors of the economy and including both energy conversion and end-use technologies. Different scenarios for the evolution of the energy system from 1995 to 2050 were explored, enabling insights to be gained into different energy development choices. The analysis indicates a business-as-usual strategy that relies on coal combustion technologies would not be able to meet all environmental and energy security goals. However, an advanced technology strategy emphasizing (1) coal gasification technologies co-producing electricity and clean liquid and gaseous energy carriers (polygeneration), with below-ground storage of some captured CO 2 ; (2) expanded use of renewable energy sources (especially wind and modern biomass); and (3) end-use efficiency would enable China to continue social and economic development through at least the next 50 years while ensuring security of energy supply and improved local and global environmental quality. Surprisingly, even when significant limitations on carbon emissions were stipulated, the model calculated that an advanced energy technology strategy using our technology-cost assumptions would not incur a higher cumulative (1995-2050) total discounted energy system cost than the business-as-usual strategy. To realize such an advanced technology strategy, China will need policies and programs that encourage the development, demonstration and commercialization of advanced clean energy conversion technologies and that support aggressive end-use energy efficiency improvements

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this &apos

Renewable energy scenario in India: Opportunities and challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Sen, Souvik; Ganguly, Sourav; Das, Ayanangshu; Sen, Joyjeet; Dey, Sourav

2016-10-01

Majority of the power generation in India is carried out by conventional energy sources, coal and fossil fuels being the primary ones, which contribute heavily to greenhouse gas emission and global warming. The Indian power sector is witnessing a revolution as excitement grips the nation about harnessing electricity from various renewable energy sources. Electricity generation from renewable sources is increasingly recognized to play an important role for the achievement of a variety of primary and secondary energy policy goals, such as improved diversity and security of energy supply, reduction of local pollutant and global greenhouse gas emissions, regional and rural development, and exploitation of opportunities for fostering social cohesion, value addition and employment generation at the local and regional level. This focuses the solution of the energy crisis on judicious utilization of abundant the renewable energy resources, such as biomass, solar, wind, geothermal and ocean tidal energy. This paper reviews the renewable energy scenario of India as well as extrapolates the future developments keeping in view the consumption, production and supply of power. Research, development, production and demonstration have been carried out enthusiastically in India to find a feasible solution to the perennial problem of power shortage for the past three decades. India has obtained application of a variety of renewable energy technologies for use in different sectors too. There are ample opportunities with favorable geology and geography with huge customer base and widening gap between demand and supply. Technological advancement, suitable regulatory policies, tax rebates, efficiency improvement in consequence to R&D efforts are the few pathways to energy and environment conservation and it will ensure that these large, clean resource bases are exploited as quickly and cost effectively as possible. This paper gives an overview of the potential renewable energy resources

Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benichou, Léo; Mayr, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benichou, Léo, E-mail: leo.benichou@theshiftproject.org [The Shift Project, Paris (France); Mayr, Sebastian, E-mail: communication@theshiftproject.org [Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po., Paris (France)

2014-01-13

Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models

Science.gov (United States)

Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and c...

Three solar urban futures: characterization of a future community under three energy-supply scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milne, M; Adelson, M; Corwin, R

1979-10-01

This study examines a hypothetical city of 100,000 people in the year 2025 based on three initially given energy-supply scenarios: Future 1 specifying approximately 6% of the city's demand being met by solar technologies; Future 2 specifying about 25%; and Future 3 seeking maximum use of solar technologies. These three versions of the hypothetical city are to be identical in terms of population, goods and services produced, and energy demand. Their differences are compared in terms of physical layout, environmental quality, socio-economics, and quality of life. It is concluded that in Future 1 and Future 2, the city's residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can easily meet the on-site energy-collection requirements of the given supply scenarios. In Future 3, the Solar City, the residential sector can be totally energy self-sufficient (collecting all needed energy on-site), and the commercial sector can collect 59.7% of its energy requirement. Passive design of buildings plays a large part in these results. The industrial sector can collect on-site only 18.2% of its energy needs. In what is called Future 3A, all three sectors of the hypothetical city can be 100% energy self-sufficient if the land area available for various types of solar collectors is increased 34.5%; the commercial sector needs 650 additional acres, while the industrial sector needs 2800 acres, provided that moderate temperature energy (250/sup 0/F to 600/sup 0/F) is adequate to meet industrial process needs.

Intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland: an energy-economic scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulz, T. F.

2007-01-01

In this dissertation by Thorsten Frank Schulz the intermediate steps necessary to realise the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland are examined. An analysis of an energy-economic scenario shows that the 2000-Watt Society should be seen as a long-term goal. According to the author, the major changes required to allow the implementation of this project concern energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. Electricity will, according to the author, play an important role in a service-oriented society in the future. In such a transformation even intermediate steps are associated with considerable expense. The aims of the 2000-Watt Society project are listed. Energy and CO 2 balances for the domestic and transport sectors are presented and discussed. Complementary analyses are presented concerning fuel cells and wood-based fuel technologies. Finally, the implications of the 2000-Watt society and the effects of technological change are summarised and an outlook is presented

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future......Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects......, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types...

Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baležentis, Tomas; Streimikiene, Dalia

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Two advanced optimization models were applied for EU energy policy scenarios development. • Several advanced MCDA were applied for energy policy scenarios ranking: WASPAS, ARAS, TOPSIS. • A Monte Carlo simulation was applied for sensitivity analysis of scenarios ranking. • New policy insights in terms of energy scenarios forecasting were provided based on research conducted. - Abstract: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are omnipresent in energy policy analysis. Even though IAMs can successfully handle uncertainty pertinent to energy planning problems, they render multiple variables as outputs of the modelling. Therefore, policy makers are faced with multiple energy development scenarios and goals. Specifically, technical, environmental, and economic aspects are represented by multiple criteria, which, in turn, are related to conflicting objectives. Preferences of decision makers need to be taken into account in order to facilitate effective energy planning. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are relevant in aggregating diverse information and thus comparing alternative energy planning options. The paper aims at ranking European Union (EU) energy development scenarios based on several IAMs with respect to multiple criteria. By doing so, we account for uncertainty surrounding policy priorities outside the IAM. In order to follow a sustainable approach, the ranking of policy options is based on EU energy policy priorities: energy efficiency improvements, increased use of renewables, reduction in and low mitigations costs of GHG emission. The ranking of scenarios is based on the estimates rendered by the two advanced IAMs relying on different approaches, namely TIAM and WITCH. The data are fed into the three MCDM techniques: the method of weighted aggregated sum/product assessment (WASPAS), the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). As MCDM techniques allow

Modelling Socio-Environmental Sensitivities: How Public Responses to Low Carbon Energy Technologies Could Shape the UK Energy System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brighid Moran Jay

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Low carbon energy technologies are not deployed in a social vacuum; there are a variety of complex ways in which people understand and engage with these technologies and the changing energy system overall. However, the role of the public’s socio-environmental sensitivities to low carbon energy technologies and their responses to energy deployments does not receive much serious attention in planning decarbonisation pathways to 2050. Resistance to certain resources and technologies based on particular socio-environmental sensitivities would alter the portfolio of options available which could shape how the energy system achieves decarbonisation (the decarbonisation pathway as well as affecting the cost and achievability of decarbonisation. Thus, this paper presents a series of three modelled scenarios which illustrate the way that a variety of socio-environmental sensitivities could impact the development of the energy system and the decarbonisation pathway. The scenarios represent risk aversion (DREAD which avoids deployment of potentially unsafe large-scale technology, local protectionism (NIMBY that constrains systems to their existing spatial footprint, and environmental awareness (ECO where protection of natural resources is paramount. Very different solutions for all three sets of constraints are identified; some seem slightly implausible (DREAD and all show increased cost (especially in ECO.

Modelling socio-environmental sensitivities: how public responses to low carbon energy technologies could shape the UK energy system.

Science.gov (United States)

Moran Jay, Brighid; Howard, David; Hughes, Nick; Whitaker, Jeanette; Anandarajah, Gabrial

2014-01-01

Low carbon energy technologies are not deployed in a social vacuum; there are a variety of complex ways in which people understand and engage with these technologies and the changing energy system overall. However, the role of the public's socio-environmental sensitivities to low carbon energy technologies and their responses to energy deployments does not receive much serious attention in planning decarbonisation pathways to 2050. Resistance to certain resources and technologies based on particular socio-environmental sensitivities would alter the portfolio of options available which could shape how the energy system achieves decarbonisation (the decarbonisation pathway) as well as affecting the cost and achievability of decarbonisation. Thus, this paper presents a series of three modelled scenarios which illustrate the way that a variety of socio-environmental sensitivities could impact the development of the energy system and the decarbonisation pathway. The scenarios represent risk aversion (DREAD) which avoids deployment of potentially unsafe large-scale technology, local protectionism (NIMBY) that constrains systems to their existing spatial footprint, and environmental awareness (ECO) where protection of natural resources is paramount. Very different solutions for all three sets of constraints are identified; some seem slightly implausible (DREAD) and all show increased cost (especially in ECO).

Rogeaulito: a world energy scenario modeling tool for transparent energy system thinking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Léo eBenichou

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Experimental Energy Consumption of Frame Slotted ALOHA and Distributed Queuing for Data Collection Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pere Tuset-Peiro

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Data collection is a key scenario for the Internet of Things because it enables gathering sensor data from distributed nodes that use low-power and long-range wireless technologies to communicate in a single-hop approach. In this kind of scenario, the network is composed of one coordinator that covers a particular area and a large number of nodes, typically hundreds or thousands, that transmit data to the coordinator upon request. Considering this scenario, in this paper we experimentally validate the energy consumption of two Medium Access Control (MAC protocols, Frame Slotted ALOHA (FSA and Distributed Queuing (DQ. We model both protocols as a state machine and conduct experiments to measure the average energy consumption in each state and the average number of times that a node has to be in each state in order to transmit a data packet to the coordinator. The results show that FSA is more energy efficient than DQ if the number of nodes is known a priori because the number of slots per frame can be adjusted accordingly. However, in such scenarios the number of nodes cannot be easily anticipated, leading to additional packet collisions and a higher energy consumption due to retransmissions. Contrarily, DQ does not require to know the number of nodes in advance because it is able to efficiently construct an ad hoc network schedule for each collection round. This kind of a schedule ensures that there are no packet collisions during data transmission, thus leading to an energy consumption reduction above 10% compared to FSA.

Experimental energy consumption of Frame Slotted ALOHA and Distributed Queuing for data collection scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuset-Peiro, Pere; Vazquez-Gallego, Francisco; Alonso-Zarate, Jesus; Alonso, Luis; Vilajosana, Xavier

2014-07-24

Data collection is a key scenario for the Internet of Things because it enables gathering sensor data from distributed nodes that use low-power and long-range wireless technologies to communicate in a single-hop approach. In this kind of scenario, the network is composed of one coordinator that covers a particular area and a large number of nodes, typically hundreds or thousands, that transmit data to the coordinator upon request. Considering this scenario, in this paper we experimentally validate the energy consumption of two Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols, Frame Slotted ALOHA (FSA) and Distributed Queuing (DQ). We model both protocols as a state machine and conduct experiments to measure the average energy consumption in each state and the average number of times that a node has to be in each state in order to transmit a data packet to the coordinator. The results show that FSA is more energy efficient than DQ if the number of nodes is known a priori because the number of slots per frame can be adjusted accordingly. However, in such scenarios the number of nodes cannot be easily anticipated, leading to additional packet collisions and a higher energy consumption due to retransmissions. Contrarily, DQ does not require to know the number of nodes in advance because it is able to efficiently construct an ad hoc network schedule for each collection round. This kind of a schedule ensures that there are no packet collisions during data transmission, thus leading to an energy consumption reduction above 10% compared to FSA.

Feasibility study on the potential of development of renewable energies for the ZAC de l'Horloge in Romainville. Study of opportunities in renewable energies and definition of energy supply scenarios. Analysis and comparison of energy supply scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-12-01

A first report proposes an overview of available renewable energy sources (geothermal, solar, and wind energy, green electricity, methanization, wood energy, waste water valorisation, connection to an existing heat network). For each of them, it presents a resource assessment, a discussion of constraints, or, should the occasion occur an overview of local providers (for wood), or an assessment of different options (small and large wind energy installations). It also presents demands made by existing sites on the studied area and at its neighbourhood. Energy supply scenarios are briefly defined. The second report proposes an analysis and a comparison of these scenarios. After a presentation of hypotheses and methodology, scenarios are presented in terms of energy needs, energy production and its relationship with the performance of positive energy buildings, adequacy with resource. Beside a reference scenario, these scenarios are named Dogger, Biomass, Wood, Clustered sectors. Comparison is performed in terms of energetic, economic and environmental assessments

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giraud, P.N.

2000-01-01

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO 2 emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2018-04-01

Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Armstrong, Graham

1991-01-01

This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

A 'must-go path' scenario for sustainable development and the role of nuclear energy in the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Hae-Yong; Kim, Young-In; Lee, Yong-Bum; Ha, Kwi-Seok; Won, Byung-Chool; Lee, Dong-Uk; Hahn, Dohee

2010-01-01

An increase in the world population has accelerated the consumption of fossil fuels and deepened the pollution of global environment. As a result of these human activities, it is now difficult to clearly guarantee the sustainable future of humankind. An intuitional 'must-go path' scenario for the sustainable development of human civilization is proposed by extrapolating the human historical data over 30 years between 1970 and 2000. One of the most important parameters in order to realize the 'must-go path' scenario is the sustainability of energy without further pollution. In some countries an expanded use of nuclear energy is advantageous to increase sustainability, but fast reactor technology and closed fuel cycle have to be introduced to make it sustainable. In other countries, the development of cost-effective renewable energy, and the clean use of coal and oil are urgently needed to reduce pollution. The effect of fast nuclear reactor technology on sustainability as an option for near-term energy source is detailed in this paper. More cooperation between countries and worldwide collaboration coordinated by international organizations are essential to make the 'must-go path' scenario real in the upcoming 20 or 30 years.

Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

1999-09-01

Understanding technology dynamics, a fundamental driving factor of the evolution of energy systems, is essential for sound policy formulation and decision making. Technological change is not an autonomous process, but evolves from a number of endogenous interactions within the social system. Technologies evolve and improve only if experience with them is possible. Efforts must be devoted to improve our analytical tools concerning the treatment given to the technological variable, recognising the cumulative and gradual nature of technological change and the important role played by learning processes. This report presents a collection of works developed by the authors concerning the endogenisation of technological change in energy optimisation models, as a contribution to the Energy Technology Dynamics andAdvanced Energy System Modelling Project (TEEM), developed in the framework of the Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III of the European Union (DGXII). Here, learning curves, an empirically observed manifestation of the cumulative technological learning processes, are endogenised in two energy optimisation models. MARKAL, a widely used bottom-up model developed by the ETSAP programme of the IEA and ERIS, a model prototype, developed within the TEEM project for assessing different concepts and approaches. The methodological approach is described and some results and insights derived from the model analyses are presented. The incorporation of learning curves results in significantly different model outcomes than those obtained with traditional approaches. New, innovative technologies, hardly considered by the standard models, are introduced to the solution when endogenous learning is present. Up-front investments in initially expensive, but promising, technologies allow the necessary accumulation of experience to render them cost-effective. When uncertainty in emission reduction commitments is considered, the results point also in the direction of undertaking early

Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

1999-09-01

Understanding technology dynamics, a fundamental driving factor of the evolution of energy systems, is essential for sound policy formulation and decision making. Technological change is not an autonomous process, but evolves from a number of endogenous interactions within the social system. Technologies evolve and improve only if experience with them is possible. Efforts must be devoted to improve our analytical tools concerning the treatment given to the technological variable, recognising the cumulative and gradual nature of technological change and the important role played by learning processes. This report presents a collection of works developed by the authors concerning the endogenisation of technological change in energy optimisation models, as a contribution to the Energy Technology Dynamics and Advanced Energy System Modelling Project (TEEM), developed in the framework of the Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III of the European Union (DGXII). Here, learning curves, an empirically observed manifestation of the cumulative technological learning processes, are endogenised in two energy optimisation models. MARKAL, a widely used bottom-up model developed by the ETSAP programme of the IEA and ERIS, a model prototype, developed within the TEEM project for assessing different concepts and approaches. The methodological approach is described and some results and insights derived from the model analyses are presented. The incorporation of learning curves results in significantly different model outcomes than those obtained with traditional approaches. New, innovative technologies, hardly considered by the standard models, are introduced to the solution when endogenous learning is present. Up-front investments in initially expensive, but promising, technologies allow the necessary accumulation of experience to render them cost-effective. When uncertainty in emission reduction commitments is considered, the results point also in the direction of undertaking early

Scenarios for ITS telecommunications technologies development in Poland for the years 2007-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazimierz BARTCZAK

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The article shows four scenarios for the development of ITS communications technologies in Poland for the years 2007-2013. Global Business Network methodology is used to make up the scenarios. The basic dimensions of the scenarios are (a type of sectors in the national economy (public vs. private, (b type of communications technology (wireline vs. wireless. The scenarios present possible futures.

Analysis of carbon mitigation technology to 2050 in Japan through integrated energy economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komiyama, Ryoichi; Suzuki, Kengo; Nagatomi, Yu; Matsuo, Yuji; Suehiro, Shigeru

2011-01-01

This paper describes the outline of integrated energy economic model and calculated result concerning the outlook of energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Japan to 2050. The energy model developed in this paper is integrated one which consistently combines econometric model endogenously generating socio-economic outlook and bottom-up type technology model, MARKAL, identifying cost-minimizing optimal mix of various energy technologies. In reference scenario which imposes no carbon emissions constraint, CO 2 emission in 2050 will decrease by approximately 40% from the level of emissions in 2005. In carbon-constraints scenario, imposing emissions cap of 60% reduction by 2050 from the emissions in 2005, natural gas-fired power plant equipped with CCS and renewable energy are expected to expand its portion in power generation mix. In transportation sector on this scenario, clean energy vehicles such as electric vehicle (EV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) will be deployed and contribute to mitigate CO 2 emissions. (author)

Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-11-15

In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

Agriculture energy prospective by 2030: scenarios and action patterns; Prospective Agriculture Energie 2030: scenarios et pistes d'action

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

This paper presents and comments the main results of a work-group focused on the evolution of agriculture in France in relationship with the new energetic context. Four scenarios have been defined, corresponding to different energetic, but also social, political and economic contexts by 2030. The first one corresponds to a severe energy crisis with an emergence of regional governance. The second one corresponds to a high volatility of energy prices, an increased easing of restrictions on trade, and a decrease of public supports and subsidies for agriculture. The third one corresponds to a strong reduction of the use of phyto-sanitary products in agriculture, a continuous urban sprawl, and the prevalence of road transport. The fourth one corresponds to agriculture respectful of the environment and a good management of energy consumption. Direct and indirect energy consumptions are assessed for the four scenarios. Some general and operational objectives are thus identified

Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hertwich, Edgar G; Gibon, Thomas; Bouman, Evert A; Arvesen, Anders; Suh, Sangwon; Heath, Garvin A; Bergesen, Joseph D; Ramirez, Andrea; Vega, Mabel I; Shi, Lei

2015-05-19

Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050.

Science.gov (United States)

Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C

2017-08-22

Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7-40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.

Experience 2030. Four scenarios for the energy sector; Beleef 2030. 4 toekomstscenario's voor de energiewereld

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aarts, P.; Breunesse, L.; Duijm, K.; Van Empel, F.; Van Erp, J.; Van Huffelen, A.; Veenstra, J.; Visser, H.; Sicking, C.; Bloemendaal, R. (eds.)

2003-07-01

In four days several experts in the field of energy participated in a brainstorm session to discuss the future and the consequences for our energy supply and demand, energy sources and technology. In this book four scenarios are presented: (1) Voluntary Simplicity, characterized by austerity and solidarity; (2) Hyper Individualism, characterized by competitive activities for as much prosperity as possible; (3) Haves and Have-nots, based on geopolitical instability and a strong technological development, resulting even beyond a wider gap between rich and poor; and (4) Tribal Society, dominated by fear, distrust and less prosperity. [Dutch] In 4 dagen is hebben energie-experts deelgenomen aan een 'brainstorm' sessie om te discussieren over de toekomst en de gevolgen daarvan voor de energievoorziening, vraag naar energie, energiebronnen en energietechnologieen. In dit boek worden 4 scenario's gepresenteerd: (1) Vrijwillige Eenvoud, gekarakteriseerd door geopolitieke stabiliteit en een geremde technologische ontwikkeling waarin mensen kiezen voor soberheid en solidariteit; (2) Hyper Individualisme, waarin individuen met eigen bedrijfjes en veel technische mogelijkheden wedijveren om een zo groot mogelijk deel van de welvaart; (3) Haves en Have-nots, waarin geopolitieke instabiliteit en een sterke technologische ontwikkeling leiden tot een tweedeling in de samenleving die verder gaat dan alleen maar een kloof tussen arm en rijk; and (4) Tribal Society, een grimmig scenario, dat wordt gedomineerd door angst, wantrouwen en een slinkende welvaart, als gevolg van een lage technologische ontwikkeling en geopolitieke instabiliteit.

Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, Lauro J.; Lambert, James H.; Karvetski, Christopher W.

2011-01-01

Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

Development of Optimal Stressor Scenarios for New Operational Energy Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

OPTIMAL STRESSOR SCENARIOS FOR NEW OPERATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEMS by Geoffrey E. Fastabend December 2017 Thesis Advisor: Alejandro S... ENERGY SYSTEMS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Geoffrey E. Fastabend 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School...developed and tested simulation model for operational energy related systems in order to develop better stressor scenarios for acceptance testing

Phasing out nuclear in Germany: scenarios of energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knopf, Brigitte; Pahle, Michael; Kondziella, Hendrik; Goetz, Mario; Bruckner, Thomas; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Stark, Hans; Rittelmeyer, Yann-Sven; Wissmann, Nele; Vitasse, Thomas

2012-02-01

After the German decision taken in 2011 to phase out nuclear, the authors analyse different scenarios of energy transition, and study the consequences of this phasing out in terms of energy needs provided by fossil fuel plants, of electricity price for households and for industries, and of CO 2 emissions. Independently from the development of renewable energies, the different effects of gas and coal plants replacing nuclear energy have been calculated and compared, and other possible scenarios have been explored. The author also discuss requirements in terms of governance for grid development, for a coordinated European policy of energy and climate, and for transparency and scientific follow-up

vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia

2016-01-01

The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

Energy perspectives 2035 - Volume 2, scenarios I to IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, A.

2007-01-01

This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the four scenarios concerning future developments in Swiss energy supply policy. The four complex scenarios include variants entitled 'business as usual', 'increased co-operation', 'new priorities' and 'on the way to a 2000-Watt society'. These scenarios deal with the development of energy demand and electricity offerings in Switzerland for the period 1990 to 2035. They are reviewed in the light of various sensitivity factors. These sensitivity factors include a high GDP, oil prices of 50 US-dollars per barrel and a warmer climate. The report presents the results of the model calculations made. First of all, the report takes a look at the motivation and aims behind the work and discusses the modelling methods, system limits and conventions used and the possibilities offered by the perspectives as well as the limits encountered. The four scenarios are then presented and discussed in detail. Implementation variants in the private, services, industrial and traffic sectors are discussed and various electricity supply variants are presented, as are the associated environmental issues involved. The scenarios are compared with each other and pricing and security of supply issues are discussed. Finally, a short synopsis of the scenarios is presented and decision criteria are discussed as are implementation instruments. Ethical dilemmas and the risks involved are noted

The use of physical indicators for industrial energy demand scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schenk, Niels J.; Moll, Henri C.

2007-01-01

Scientific information on the size and nature of the threat of climate change is needed by politicians in order to weight their decisions. Computerised models are extremely useful tools to quantify the long-term effects of current policies. This paper describes a new modelling approach that allows formulation of industrial energy demand projections consistent with the assumptions for scenario drivers such as GDP and population. In the model, a level of industrial production is used as a key variable, and we define it in physical units, rather than in monetary units. The aim of this research is to increase insights that come with long-term energy demand scenarios. This research clearly shows that physical indicators provide additional insights in scenario analysis. The use of physical indicators instead of monetary indicators seems to affect the energy scenarios significantly. The differences with monetary indicators are larger in developing regions than in OECD regions. We conclude that an integrated energy and materials approach reveals developments that are hardly visible using a monetary approach. Moreover, this research shows the potential and benefits of the use of physical indicators for scenario development. (author)

Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-11-15

This WEC study is bottom-up regional view of our energy future focusing on policies to ensure energy sustainability. Experts from five regions and all energy domains worked together to produce four different scenarios to predict how differing levels of cooperation and government involvement would affect the energy future of the world.

Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

2013-01-01

For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

Hydrogen energy network start-up scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weingartner, S.; Ellerbrock, H.

1994-01-01

Hydrogen is widely discussed as future fuel and energy storage medium either to replace conventional fuels for automobiles, aircrafts and ships or to avoid the necessity of bulky battery systems for electricity storage, especially in connection with solar power systems. These discussions however started more than 25 years ago and up to now hydrogen has failed to achieve a major break-through towards wider application as energy storage medium in civil markets. The main reason is that other fuels are cheaper and very well implemented in our daily life. A study has been performed at Deutsche Aerospace in order to evaluate the boundary conditions, either political or economical, which would give hydrogen the necessary push, i.e. advantage over conventional fuels. The main goal of this study was to identify critical influence factors and specific start-up scenarios which would allow an economical and practically realistic use of hydrogen as fuel and energy medium in certain niche markets outside the space industry. Method and major results of this study are presented in detail in the paper. Certain niche markets could be identified, where with little initial governmental support, either by funding, tax laws or legislation, hydrogen can compete with conventional fuels. This however requires a scenario where a lot of small actions have to be taken by a high variety of institutions and industries which today are not interconnected with each other, i.e. it requires a new cooperative and proactive network between e.g. energy utilities, car industries, those who have a sound experience with hydrogen (space industry, chemical industry) and last, but certainly not the least, the government. Based on the developed scenario precise recommendations are drawn as conclusions

Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Qingyu; Tian Weili; Zheng Yingyue; Zhang Lili

2010-01-01

Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) 'business as usual' (BAU); (ii) 'advanced fuel economy' (AFE); and (iii) 'alternative energy replacement' (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.

Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

Science.gov (United States)

Musulin, Mike, II

The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes

Realisable scenarios for a future electricity supply based 100% on renewable energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Czisch, G.; Giebel, G.

2007-01-01

In view of the resource and climate problems, it seems obvious that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how such a system should be structured, which techniques should be used and, of course, how costly it might be. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity supply for Europe and its closer Asian and African neighbourhood. The resulting scenarios are based on a broad data basis of the electricity consumption and for renewable energies. A linear optimisation determines the best system configuration and temporal dispatch of all components. The outcome of the scenarios can be considered as being a scientific breakthrough since it proves that a totally renewable electricity supply is possible even with current technology and at the same time is affordable for our national economies. In the conservative base case scenario, wind power would dominate the production spread over the better wind areas within the whole supply area, connected with the demand centres via HVDC transmission. The transmission system, furthermore, powerfully integrates the existing storage hydropower to provide for backup co-equally assisted by biomass power and supported by solar thermal electricity. The main results of the different scenarios can be summarized as follows: 1) A totally renewable electricity supply for Europe and its neighbourhood is possible and affordable. 2) Electricity import from non-European neighbour countries can be a very valuable and substantial component of a future supply. 3) Smoothing effects by the use of sources at locations in different climate zones improve the security of the supply and reduce the costs. 4) A large-scale co-operation of many different countries opens up for the possibility to combine the goals of development policy and climate politics in a multilateral win-win strategy. To aid implementation, an international extension

Scenarios for total utilisation of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the future Danish energy system. Final report; Scenarier for samlet udnyttelse af brint som energibaerer i Danmarks fremtidige energisystem. Slutrapport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hauge Petersen, A; Engberg Pedersen, T; Joergensen, K [and others

2001-04-01

This is the final report from a project performed for the Danish Energy Agency under its Hydrogen Programme. The project, which within the project group goes by the abbreviated title 'Hydrogen as an energy carrier', constructs and analyses different total energy scenarios for introducing hydrogen as an energy carrier, as energy storage medium and as a fuel in the future Danish energy system. The primary aim of the project is to study ways of handling the large deficits and surpluses of electricity from wind energy expected in the future Danish energy system. System-wide aspects of the choice of hydrogen production technologies, distribution methods, infrastructure requirements and conversion technologies are studied. Particularly, the possibility of using in the future the existing Danish natural gas distribution grid for carrying hydrogen will be assessed. For the year 2030, two scenarios are constructed: One using hydrogen primarily in the transportation sector, the other using it as a storage option for the centralised power plants still in operation by this year. For the year 2050, where the existing fossil power plants are expected to have been phased out completely, the scenarios for two possible developments are investigated: Either, there is a complete decentralisation of the use of hydrogen, converting and storing electricity surpluses into hydrogen in individual buildings, for later use in vehicles or regeneration of power and heat. Or, some centralised infrastructure is retained, such as hydrogen cavern stores and a network of vehicle hydrogen filling stations. The analysis is used to identify the components in an implementation strategy, for the most interesting scenarios, including a time sequence of necessary decisions and technology readiness. The report is in Danish, because it is part of the dissemination effort of the Hydrogen Committee, directed at the Danish population in general and the Danish professional community in particular. (au)

Scenarios for total utilisation of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the future Danish energy system. Final report; Scenarier for samlet udnyttelse af brint som energibaerer i Danmarks fremtidige energisystem. Slutrapport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hauge Petersen, A.; Engberg Pedersen, T.; Joergensen, K. (and others)

2001-04-01

This is the final report from a project performed for the Danish Energy Agency under its Hydrogen Programme. The project, which within the project group goes by the abbreviated title 'Hydrogen as an energy carrier', constructs and analyses different total energy scenarios for introducing hydrogen as an energy carrier, as energy storage medium and as a fuel in the future Danish energy system. The primary aim of the project is to study ways of handling the large deficits and surpluses of electricity from wind energy expected in the future Danish energy system. System-wide aspects of the choice of hydrogen production technologies, distribution methods, infrastructure requirements and conversion technologies are studied. Particularly, the possibility of using in the future the existing Danish natural gas distribution grid for carrying hydrogen will be assessed. For the year 2030, two scenarios are constructed: One using hydrogen primarily in the transportation sector, the other using it as a storage option for the centralised power plants still in operation by this year. For the year 2050, where the existing fossil power plants are expected to have been phased out completely, the scenarios for two possible developments are investigated: Either, there is a complete decentralisation of the use of hydrogen, converting and storing electricity surpluses into hydrogen in individual buildings, for later use in vehicles or regeneration of power and heat. Or, some centralised infrastructure is retained, such as hydrogen cavern stores and a network of vehicle hydrogen filling stations. The analysis is used to identify the components in an implementation strategy, for the most interesting scenarios, including a time sequence of necessary decisions and technology readiness. The report is in Danish, because it is part of the dissemination effort of the Hydrogen Committee, directed at the Danish population in general and the Danish professional community in particular. (au)

Energy-Climate Scenarios: An Adjustment after the Economic Crisis, Fukushima, Durban and... Shale Gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana; Peytral, Pierre-Olivier; Simon, Jean-Christophe

2012-01-01

In an article published in these pages in 2011 (no. 373), Patrick Criqui presented a series of scenarios on possible energy and climate trends, taking note of the agreement on climate change signed in late 2009 at the Copenhagen Conference. He pointed out that a paradigm shift was on the cards, which would mean less use of the top-down approach - with national objectives set as a function of international objectives formulated at major conferences - and greater implementation of a bottom-up logic based on national policies put in place in the energy field and as part of the battle against global warming. On the basis of this latter logic, the authors were able to elaborate scenarios at a world level. A few days before the publication of that article, the Fukushima accident occurred in japan, lending fresh impetus to the energy debate in most of the countries using nuclear power. Does that event, combined with the persistence of the debt crisis, the increased extraction of unconventional hydrocarbons (shale oil and gas ) and the fact that international negotiations on climate change (Durban) have merely marked time, modify the projected scenarios -and, if so, to what extent ? Patrick Criqui, Silvana Mima, Pierre-Olivier Peytral and jean-Christophe Simon consider this question in detail here. They begin by examining the impact of these recent events and developments on the current energy and climate situation. Then, after reminding us of the four world energy scenarios (to a time-horizon of 2030-2050) that were developed in 2009 (together with two 'discontinuity scenarios'), they propose an updating that takes account of the perceived consequences of the change of context, stressing two crucial scenarios in particular: the probable (leading to warming in the order of 4 deg. C) and the desirable (limiting warming to 2 deg. C). Lastly, they propose various levers aimed at 'making the desirable trajectory possible' (technological agreements, economic instruments

The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

2015-05-01

This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

Renewable energy scenario and disregarded petition of rural populace of an Indian island: A critical survey and concept of an inexpensive artifact

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ghosh, Tamal; Nath, Saswata; Chakraborty, Tanmoy

2011-07-01

This study attempts to establish the challenges associated to solar energy scenario in rural living of south-east of Indian province namely West Bengal and to suggest an inexpensive solar artifact with an aim to cater to the areas which are scarcely electrified and primarily in countryside. Stockpile of fossil fuels are depleting and there is an urgent need of promoting renewable energy products that can pertinently be supported by this clean energy. Renewable energy is alternate source of energy or non-conventional energy such as, solar energy, water energy, wind energy, biomass and bio-gas energy, tidal energy, Geo-thermal energy, hydrogen energy. Scope of this article converges on disregarded demand scenario of rural inhabitants and fostering inexpensive appropriate solar technology based product. For subsequent investigation a critical socio-technical survey has also been conducted in the rural Sundarban area of Southern part of West Bengal, with an aim to acquire the glimpse of the presently operating government project on solar technology and to identify the demand and solar product there for.

Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems for Future Urban Energy Retrofitting Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrizia Lombardi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, there is an increasing concern about sustainable urban energy development taking into account national priorities of each city. Many cities have started to define future strategies and plans to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Urban energy scenarios involve the consideration of a wide range of conflicting criteria, both socio-economic and environmental ones. Moreover, decision-makers (DMs require proper tools that can support their choices in a context of multiple stakeholders and a long-term perspective. In this context, Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems (MC-SDSS are often used in order to define and analyze urban scenarios since they support the comparison of different solutions, based on a combination of multiple factors. The main problem, in relation to urban energy retrofitting scenarios, is the lack of appropriate knowledge and evaluation criteria. The latter are crucial for delivering and assessing urban energy scenarios through a MC-SDSS tool. The main goal of this paper is to analyze and test two different methods for the definition and ranking of the evaluation criteria. More specifically, the paper presents an on-going research study related to the development of a MC-SDSS tool able to identify and evaluate alternative energy urban scenarios in a long-term period perspective. This study refers to two Smart City and Communities research projects, namely: DIMMER (District Information Modeling and Management for Energy Reduction and EEB (Zero Energy Buildings in Smart Urban Districts.

Kyoto Protocol Objectives in Croatia Energy Planning: Nuclear Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duic, N.; Bogdan, Z.; Juretic, F.; Zeljko, M.

2002-01-01

Croatia as an Annex I country of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a country that has pledged in the Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 5% from the pre-transition level by the budget period 2008-12, will have to envisage a new energy strategy. Compared to the energy consumption collapse in some transitional countries like Russia and Ukraine, Croatia has passed through a relatively limited long term reduction of GHG emissions since 1990 because of higher efficiency of its pre-transition economy. It is expected that in case of business as usual scenario it will breach the Kyoto target in 2003 since the demand for energy will be high, especially as the income continues to rise, particularly in domestic use for heating, for transport and for electricity generation. Several scenarios of developing energy system are compared from the point of view of GHG emissions. The energy sector that will most probably be the most influenced by the UNFCCC objectives is electricity generation. Several scenarios are compared. The cost-effective scenario expects a mixture of coal and gas fired power plants to be built to satisfy the new demand and to replace the old power plants that are being decommissioned. More Kyoto friendly scenario envisages the construction of mostly nuclear power plants in the future, while decommissioning the old ones as planned, and is compared to the others from the GHG emissions point of view. The conclusion is that by measures tackling only electricity generation it will not be possible to keep GHG emission under the Kyoto target level, but that choosing the nuclear option might reduce significantly the cost of compliance. (author)

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-01-01

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

Intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland: an energy-economic scenario analysis[Dissertation 17314

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schulz, T. F

2007-07-01

In this dissertation by Thorsten Frank Schulz the intermediate steps necessary to realise the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland are examined. An analysis of an energy-economic scenario shows that the 2000-Watt Society should be seen as a long-term goal. According to the author, the major changes required to allow the implementation of this project concern energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. Electricity will, according to the author, play an important role in a service-oriented society in the future. In such a transformation even intermediate steps are associated with considerable expense. The aims of the 2000-Watt Society project are listed. Energy and CO{sub 2} balances for the domestic and transport sectors are presented and discussed. Complementary analyses are presented concerning fuel cells and wood-based fuel technologies. Finally, the implications of the 2000-Watt society and the effects of technological change are summarised and an outlook is presented.

Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, Elorri; Rugani, Benedetto; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico; Drouet, Laurent; Zachary, Daniel S.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The environmental impacts of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg are assessed. • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models are used. • Results from coupling of CGE and PE are integrated in hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. • Impacts due to energy related production and imports are likely to grow over time. • Carbon mitigation policies seem to not substantially decrease the impacts’ trend. - Abstract: Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of

Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

2002-03-01

The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

Deployment Effects of Marin Renewable Energy Technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brian Polagye; Mirko Previsic

2010-06-17

Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, marine and hydrokinetic technologies could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood, due to a lack of technical certainty. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based approach to the emerging wave and tidal technology sectors in order to evaluate the impact of these technologies on the marine environment and potentially conflicting uses. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios will capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental impacts and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders onto the critical issues that need to be addressed. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory and navigational issues. The results of this study are structured into three reports: 1. Wave power scenario description 2. Tidal power scenario description 3. Framework for

Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

2012-01-01

In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

How Can China Lighten Up? Urbanization, Industrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

2009-07-01

Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energy consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of

Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.

2011-01-01

This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO 2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO 2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO 2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO 2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO 2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy. - Highlights: → Alternative-fuel LDVs reduce whole-system CO 2 emissions, even without carbon pricing. → Alternative-fuel LDVs enhance the CO 2 mitigation capacity of the transportation sector. → Electric and hydrogen vehicles reduce whole-system primary energy supporting LDV transport.

Detailed Modelling of the Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios with Demand Response Technologies in the Heating and Cooling Sector: A Case Study for Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Calise

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Energy policies accompanying the transition towards a sustainable development process must be supported by technical analyses in which future energy scenarios are modeled and evaluated. This paper analyzes possible decarbonization scenarios in Italy for the year 2050. They envisage high electrification of transports and residential buildings, high use of renewable energies, and a modal shift towards public transport. The energy scenarios are evaluated using a software program, EnergyPLAN, starting from a reference model developed for the year 2014. Special attention has been given to the modeling of data that are unavailable in the literature, such as the time profile of heating and cooling demands, obtained with the degree-days method and validated by elaborating the results of the modeling of the residential building stock, this latter was dynamically simulated in TRNSYS. The results show that to obtain a significant decrease of greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption, it is necessary not only to promote a deeper penetration of renewable sources, but also their integration with other technologies (cogeneration, trigeneration, power-to-heat systems, thermal storage, vehicle-to-grid operations. In fact, renewables technologies alone can raise some critical issues, such as excess and/or shortage of electricity production and non-sustainable exploitation of biomass.

Technology assessment of geothermal energy resource development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1975-04-15

Geothermal state-of-the-art is described including geothermal resources, technology, and institutional, legal, and environmental considerations. The way geothermal energy may evolve in the United States is described; a series of plausible scenarios and the factors and policies which control the rate of growth of the resource are presented. The potential primary and higher order impacts of geothermal energy are explored, including effects on the economy and society, cities and dwellings, environmental, and on institutions affected by it. Numerical and methodological detail is included in appendices. (MHR)

Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steenhof, Paul A.; Hill, Malcolm R.

2006-01-01

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period. (Author)

Energy consumption in industry, 1990 - 2035 - Scenarios I to IV for various sensitivities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumgartner, W.; Ebert, O.; Weber, F.

2006-12-01

This comprehensive, illustrated report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the results of a study with respect to industrial energy consumption which provided scenarios for future Swiss energy consumption. Four scenarios were elaborated: Continuation of present policy, increased co-operation between state and industry, more ambitious energy policy priorities and a scenario with even more ambitious goals - the so-called '2000 Watt Society'. For each of these scenarios several variants and a selection of sub-variants were defined, including increased prices, higher gross domestic product GDP, warmer climate and various carbon levies. The specific energy consumption of 16 different industrial sectors is examined and the effects of the various scenarios on several factors are considered. Data and results are presented in tabular and graphical form. Various measures that could influence energy consumption are listed and discussed, as are the modelling methods employed and the plausibility of the results obtained

Integrating energy and environmental goals. Investment needs and technology options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-04-01

Economic and population growth will continue to drive an expansion of the global energy market. The Earth's energy resources are undoubtedly adequate to meet rising demand for at least the next three decades. But the projected increases in energy consumption and market developments raise serious concerns about the security of energy supplies, investment in energy infrastructure, the threat of environmental damage caused by energy use and the uneven access of the world's population to modern energy. The first two sections of this background paper provide an outlook for energy demand and emissions over the next thirty years, based on findings in the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2002. Section four presents projections for global investment needs from the latest WEO publication, the World Energy Investment Outlook 2003. For both the energy and investment outlooks, an alternative scenario for OECD countries is examined. The scenarios describe a world in which environmental and energy supply security concerns will continue to plague policy makers. Clearly, changes in power generation, automotive engines and fuel technologies will be required to change trends in energy demand and emissions over the next thirty years and beyond. Improvements in energy efficiency will also play a fundamental role. A number of technologies offer the long term potential to diversify the energy sector away from its present heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Based on various IEA studies, section five evaluates those technologies that offer the potential to reduce emissions, including renewable energy, fossil-fuel use with CO2 capture and storage, nuclear, hydrogen, biofuels and efficient energy end use. No single technology can meet the challenge by itself. Different regions and countries will require different combinations of technologies to best serve their needs and best exploit their indigenous resources. Developing countries, in particular, will face far greater challenges in the years ahead

CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

2010-01-01

The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

Long-term affected energy production of waste to energy technologies identified by use of energy system analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Münster, M; Meibom, P

2010-12-01

Affected energy production is often decisive for the outcome of consequential life-cycle assessments when comparing the potential environmental impact of products or services. Affected energy production is however difficult to determine. In this article the future long-term affected energy production is identified by use of energy system analysis. The focus is on different uses of waste for energy production. The Waste-to-Energy technologies analysed include co-combustion of coal and waste, anaerobic digestion and thermal gasification. The analysis is based on optimization of both investments and production of electricity, district heating and bio-fuel in a future possible energy system in 2025 in the countries of the Northern European electricity market (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Germany). Scenarios with different CO(2) quota costs are analysed. It is demonstrated that the waste incineration continues to treat the largest amount of waste. Investments in new waste incineration capacity may, however, be superseded by investments in new Waste-to-Energy technologies, particularly those utilising sorted fractions such as organic waste and refuse derived fuel. The changed use of waste proves to always affect a combination of technologies. What is affected varies among the different Waste-to-Energy technologies and is furthermore dependent on the CO(2) quota costs and on the geographical scope. The necessity for investments in flexibility measures varies with the different technologies such as storage of heat and waste as well as expansion of district heating networks. Finally, inflexible technologies such as nuclear power plants are shown to be affected. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fiscal 2000 report of investigation. Research on effective use of technology for biomass waste and diffusion scenario of the technology; 2000 nendo biomass kei haikibutsu no yuko riyo gijutsu to sono fukyu scenario no chosa hokokusho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-03-01

Examination and proposal were made on the effective uses of technologies for biomass wastes and on the diffusion scenarios, with trial calculations done to find the maximum reducible amounts in terms of carbon dioxide. In the examination of the systems, it was focused on five technologies, namely, direct combustion of straw and rice straw/CHP/heat utilization, synthesis of gasified methanol from demolition wood, biogas/CHP from livestock feces and urine, conversion to ethanol through saccharification of used paper, and conversion to biodiesel from vegetable waste oil; the examination also covered each feature, core function, use situation inside and outside Japan, technological system for each energy conversion, etc. Further, solutions were examined and proposed concerning diffusion barriers in each scenario. Consequently, the maximum amount of CO2 reduction effect was found respectively 217 thousand t-C in the straw and rice straw, 500 thousand t-C in the demolition wood, 9.53 million t-C in the livestock feces/urine, 820 thousand t-C in the used paper, and 30 thousand t-C in the vegetable waste oil. (NEDO)

Greenhouse gas emissions from high demand, natural gas-intensive energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Victor, D.G.

1990-01-01

Since coal and oil emit 70% and 30% more CO 2 per unit of energy than natural gas (methane), fuel switching to natural gas is an obvious pathway to lower CO 2 emissions and reduced theorized greenhouse warming. However, methane is, itself, a strong greenhouse gas so the CO 2 advantages of natural gas may be offset by leaks in the natural gas recovery and supply system. Simple models of atmospheric CO 2 and methane are used to test this hypothesis for several natural gas-intensive energy scenarios, including the work of Ausubel et al (1988). It is found that the methane leaks are significant and may increase the total 'greenhouse effect' from natural gas-intensive energy scenarios by 10%. Furthermore, because methane is short-lived in the atmosphere, leaking methane from natural gas-intensive, high energy growth scenarios effectively recharges the concentration of atmospheric methane continuously. For such scenarios, the problem of methane leaks is even more serious. A second objective is to explore some high demand scenarios that describe the role of methane leaks in the greenhouse tradeoff between gas and coal as energy sources. It is found that the uncertainty in the methane leaks from the natural gas system are large enough to consume the CO 2 advantages from using natural gas instead of coal for 20% of the market share. (author)

Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2012-01-01

Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fidje, Audun

2008-07-01

This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

Exploring drivers of energy demand in Cyprus – Scenarios and policy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zachariadis, Theodoros; Taibi, Emanuele

2015-01-01

This paper describes a new set of energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040, which have been developed in support of the renewable energy roadmap that was prepared for national authorities by the International Renewable Energy Agency. The analysis takes into account national end-use data from the residential and tertiary sector that had not been exploited up to now. Four final energy demand scenarios with diverging assumptions were defined in this study, offering a wide range of possible outcomes up to 2040; in addition, four alternative scenarios were applied for sensitivity analysis. Two of these scenarios can be regarded as those continuing the trends of the recent past in Cyprus (prior to the economic and financial downturn of years 2011–2014). However, a more rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures in buildings and transport, as defined in the fourth scenario of this study, is also realistic; despite its potential costs, it might allow Cyprus both to decrease its carbon emissions in line with the long-term EU decarbonisation targets, and to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, thereby promoting energy efficiency as an important climate change adaptation measure. - Highlights: • Energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040 are presented. • Study in the frame of renewable energy roadmap for Cyprus supported by IRENA. • Four scenarios considered, some allowing for breaks with past trends of energy use. • Rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures is realistic. • Strong energy savings required in line with EU decarbonisation targets.

Life cycle emissions from renewable energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bates, J.; Watkiss, P.; Thorpe, T.

1997-01-01

This paper presents the methodology used in the ETSU review, together with the detailed results for three of the technologies studied: wind turbines, photovoltaic systems and small, stand-alone solar thermal systems. These emissions are then compared with those calculated for both other renewables and fossil fuel technology on a similar life cycle basis. The life cycle emissions associated with renewable energy technology vary considerably. They are lowest for those technologies where the renewable resource has been concentrated in some way (e.g. over distance in the case of wind and hydro, or over time in the case of energy crops). Wind turbines have amongst the lowest emissions of all renewables and are lower than those for fossil fuel generation, often by over an order of magnitude. Photovoltaics and solar thermal systems have the highest life cycle emissions of all the renewable energy technologies under review. However, their emissions of most pollutants are also much lower than those associated with fossil fuel technologies. In addition, the emissions associated with PV are likely to fall further in the future as the conversion efficiency of PV cells increases and manufacturing technology switches to thin film technologies, which are less energy intensive. Combining the assessments of life cycle emissions of renewables with predictions made by the World Energy Council (WEC) of their future deployment has allowed estimates to be made of amount by which renewables could reduce the future global emissions of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. It estimated that under the WEC's 'Ecologically Driven' scenario, renewables might lead to significant reductions of between 3650 and 8375 Mt in annual CO 2 emissions depending on the fossil fuel technology they are assumed to displace. (author)

Energy perspectives of the France by 2020-2050. Energy scenario; Perspectives energetiques de la France a l'horizon 2020-2050. Scenarios energetiques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-09-15

The aim of the working group was to realize quantitative approaches of the french energy system by 2020-2050 supporting the reflexions of the Energy Commission. The presented scenario are not prevision of the future. They just allow, in function of the hypothesis and the models used, to establish an approach of the consequences in term of the final energy demand. Two simulation tools were used and described in the chapter 3: Medpro-Poles and Markal-Times. The scenario are analyzed in the chapters 4 and 5. Results allow to see how the proposed measures are sufficient to reach in France the main objectives proposed by the european union. (A.L.B.)

Scenarios of technology adoption towards low-carbon cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohareb, Eugene A.; Kennedy, Christopher A.

2014-01-01

Technological change has often been presented as a readily accepted means by which long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions can be achieved. Cities are the future centers of economic growth, with the global population becoming predominantly urban; hence, increases or reductions of GHG emissions are tied to their energy strategies. This research examines the likelihood of a developed world city (the Greater Toronto Area) achieving an 80% reduction in GHG emissions through policy-enabled technological change. Emissions are examined from 3 major sources: light duty passenger vehicles, residential buildings and commercial/institutional buildings. Logistic diffusion curves are applied for the adoption of alternative vehicle technologies, building retrofits and high performance new building construction. This research devises high, low and business-as-usual estimates of future technological adoption and finds that even aggressive scenarios are not sufficient to achieve an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. This further highlights the challenges faced in maintaining a relatively stable climate. Urban policy makers must consider that the longer the lag before this transition occurs, the greater the share of GHG emissions mitigation that must addressed through behavioural change in order to meet the 2050 target, which likely poses greater political challenges. - Highlights: • Explores policy options in a city targeting an 80% GHG emission reduction target by 2050. • Aggressive building code changes will have minimal impact on GHG mitigation. • Support of low-carbon electricity for the majority of generation necessary by 2050. • Internal combustion engine use must be mostly eliminated from the vehicle stock. • Policies supporting elimination of physical exchange space should be promoted

GHG emission scenarios in Asia and the world: The key technologies for significant reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akashi, Osamu; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Kainuma, Mikiko

2012-01-01

In this paper, we explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world as part of the Asian Modeling Exercise and assess technology options for meeting a 2.6 W/m 2 radiative forcing target using AIM/Enduse[Global] and AIM/Impact[Policy]. Global GHG emissions in 2050 are required to be reduced by 72% relative to a reference scenario, which corresponds to a 57% reduction from the 2005 level, in order to meet the above target. Energy intensity improvement contributes a lot to curbing CO 2 emission in the short-term. Meanwhile, carbon intensity reduction and CO 2 capture play a large role for further emission reduction in the mid to long-term. The top five key technologies in terms of reduction amount are CCS, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation and biofuel, which, in total, account for about 60% of global GHG emissions reduction in 2050. We implement additional model runs, each of which enforced limited availability of one of the key technology. The result shows that the 2.6 W/m 2 target up to 2050 is achievable even if availability of any one of the key technologies is limited to half the level achieved in the default simulation. However, if the use of CCS or biomass is limited, the cumulative GHG abatement cost until 2050 increases considerably. Therefore CCS and biomass have a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions. - Highlights: ► We explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world. ► Significant GHG emission reduction is required to limit radiative forcing at low level. ► We assess technology options for achieving significant GHG emission reduction. ► CCS, solar power, wind power, and biomass are the key technologies for reduction. ► Especially, CCS and biomass play a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions.

Power electronics - The key technology for Renewable Energy Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blaabjerg, Frede; Ma, Ke; Yang, Yongheng

2014-01-01

The energy paradigms in many countries (e.g. Germany and Denmark) have experienced a significant change from fossil-based resources to clean renewables (e.g. wind turbines and photovoltaics) in the past few decades. The scenario of highly penetrated renewables is going to be further enhanced...... - Denmark expects to be 100 % fossil-free by 2050. Consequently, it is required that the production, distribution and use of the energy should be as technologically efficient as possible and incentives to save energy at the end-user should also be strengthened. In order to realize the transition smoothly...... and effectively, energy conversion systems, currently based on power electronics technology, will again play an essential role in this energy paradigm shift. Using highly efficient power electronics in power generation, power transmission/distribution and end-user application, together with advanced control...

A 'must-go path' scenario for sustainable development and the role of nuclear energy in the 21st century

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeong, Hae-Yong; Kim, Young-In; Lee, Yong-Bum; Ha, Kwi-Seok; Won, Byung-Chool; Lee, Dong-Uk; Hahn, Dohee [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea)

2010-04-15

An increase in the world population has accelerated the consumption of fossil fuels and deepened the pollution of global environment. As a result of these human activities, it is now difficult to clearly guarantee the sustainable future of humankind. An intuitional 'must-go path' scenario for the sustainable development of human civilization is proposed by extrapolating the human historical data over 30 years between 1970 and 2000. One of the most important parameters in order to realize the 'must-go path' scenario is the sustainability of energy without further pollution. In some countries an expanded use of nuclear energy is advantageous to increase sustainability, but fast reactor technology and closed fuel cycle have to be introduced to make it sustainable. In other countries, the development of cost-effective renewable energy, and the clean use of coal and oil are urgently needed to reduce pollution. The effect of fast nuclear reactor technology on sustainability as an option for near-term energy source is detailed in this paper. More cooperation between countries and worldwide collaboration coordinated by international organizations are essential to make the 'must-go path' scenario real in the upcoming 20 or 30 years. (author)

Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis: Quantitative Estimates Used to Facilitate Working Group Discussions (2008-2010)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Braccio, R.; Finch, P.; Frazier, R.

2012-03-01

This report provides details on the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis to identify potential policy options and evaluate their impact on reaching the 70% HECI goal, present possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology, with an eye to initiatives under way in Hawaii, and provide an 'order-of-magnitude' cost estimate and a jump-start to action that would be adjusted with a better understanding of the technologies and market.

System analysis and assessment of technological alternatives for Nordic H{sub 2} energy foresight

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koljonen, T.; Pursiheimo, E. [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Gether, K. [NTNU, Trondheim (Norway); Joergensen, K. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

2004-12-01

The hydrogen scenarios developed during the Nordic Hydrogen Foresight project was analysed using a energy system model, which was developed during the project. The aim of the systems analysis was to analyse the technical and economical potential of hydrogen society in the Nordic countries in quantitative terms as well as the competitiveness of the selected hydrogen based systems. Visions and scenarios of the future energy systems in the Nordic area were defined in the workshops of the project. As a result of these workshops three scenarios were selected to outline the future of Nordic energy. The scenarios included different energy policies; scenarios for fossil fuel prices; and hydrogen energy demands, which varied from 6% to 18% of the total energy demand in 2030 for transport sector, and from 3% to 9% in heat and power production. In the roadmap workshops, the most important hydrogen based systems were selected, which were also included in the model. These include steam reforming of natural gas, electrolysis with renewable electricity, and biomass gasification for hydrogen production. For stationary applications, fuel cells and gas engines were selected for power and heat production. In our scenario calculations, biomass gasification and steam reforming seem to be the most competitive technologies for hydrogen production. The competitiveness of biomass gasification is greatly affected by the biomass fuel price, which is a local energy source. Electrolysis seems to be most competitive in decentralized systems, if the electricity price is low enough. For stationary applications, CHP fuel cells seem to be the most competitive in the long term, if the technological development and the decrease in investment costs follow the assumed scenario. The approximated Nordic market sizes in 2030 for the base scenarios varied from 1000 ME to 3000 MEuro for hydrogen production, from 1000 to 4000 MEuro for stationary applications and 4000 MEuro to 12.000 MEuro for hydrogen

What scenario studies tell about security of energy supply in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P.; Jansen, J.C.

2001-06-01

A technical fact-finding study on security of energy supply has been performed from the European point of view and from the point of view of the Netherlands. A brief assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources. Based on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other literature, the reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional oil is estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS data, the reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated at 190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large. However, environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world's proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production ratio of 230 years. All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel, whereas the supply of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and the supply of coal is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called Shared analysis project, performed by a number of research institutes in the EU, gives useful points of departure for energy policy formulation. However, the results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser extent its variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully. A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The 'Out-look' gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported oil and gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990 to 80% in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption, import dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34% in 1997 to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in collaboration with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural gas in total primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55% in all of the scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural gas is

Development of a global computable general equilibrium model coupled with detailed energy end-use technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Detailed energy end-use technology information is considered within a CGE model. • Aggregated macro results of the detailed model are similar to traditional model. • The detailed model shows unique characteristics in the household sector. - Abstract: A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model integrating detailed energy end-use technologies is developed in this paper. The paper (1) presents how energy end-use technologies are treated within the model and (2) analyzes the characteristics of the model’s behavior. Energy service demand and end-use technologies are explicitly considered, and the share of technologies is determined by a discrete probabilistic function, namely a Logit function, to meet the energy service demand. Coupling with detailed technology information enables the CGE model to have more realistic representation in the energy consumption. The proposed model in this paper is compared with the aggregated traditional model under the same assumptions in scenarios with and without mitigation roughly consistent with the two degree climate mitigation target. Although the results of aggregated energy supply and greenhouse gas emissions are similar, there are three main differences between the aggregated and the detailed technologies models. First, GDP losses in mitigation scenarios are lower in the detailed technology model (2.8% in 2050) as compared with the aggregated model (3.2%). Second, price elasticity and autonomous energy efficiency improvement are heterogeneous across regions and sectors in the detailed technology model, whereas the traditional aggregated model generally utilizes a single value for each of these variables. Third, the magnitude of emissions reduction and factors (energy intensity and carbon factor reduction) related to climate mitigation also varies among sectors in the detailed technology model. The household sector in the detailed technology model has a relatively higher reduction for both energy

Shell energy scenarios to 2050. Signals and Signposts. An era of volatile transitions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

For 40 years, Shell has drawn on its scenarios to enhance business decisions and its ability to respond to change. Our most recent scenarios also contributed positively to the global public debate on energy and the environment. But the financial crash, the deepest economic slump in 70 years, and a patchy and fragile recovery have changed the world dramatically. We must consider how these events may or may not have altered our energy outlooks. Signals and Signposts offers our best understanding about the changes brought by the global financial and economic crisis. Internally, we have been using Recession and Recovery scenarios since September 2008. The two outlooks (Severe-yet-Sharp and Deeper-and-Longer) have, so far, bracketed actual developments. We have also drawn on a supplementary but unlikely scenario, Depression 2.0. These scenarios continue to provide useful insights and we draw on them in this booklet. Despite the economic turbulence, the fundamental drivers and uncertainties explored in our Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 remain fully relevant. Signals and Signposts highlights significant additional factors and should be read as a companion to our Scramble and Blueprints energy scenarios, which can be downloaded from www.shell.com/scenarios. An overview is in the Appendix.

Scenarios of energy sobriety and societal transformations. When lifestyle and society changes mean energy savings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-09-01

By using prospective energy scenarios, the objective of this study performed in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region is to quantify energy savings induced by possible public policies or by lifestyle changes, and then to use the obtained results as tools of support to public decision, and means to make people aware of the end of an abundant and cheap oil, of the potential of solar energy, and of the benefits of energy sobriety. Four scenarios are thus defined. The first one concerns food habits, and corresponds to a more biological production, seasonal and less transformed foodstuffs, more vegetal plates, and reduced distances between producers and consumers. The second one concerns material goods: evolution towards more mutualization, re-use, and durability of products, and a reduced usage of equipment. The third one concerns buildings: the end of individual equipment and of always increasing surfaces, a modulated comfort depending on the room, and more collective organisations. The last scenario concerns displacements: less frequent displacements, shorter distances, use of soft modes, smaller vehicles, and energy saving in the use of vehicles

The energy consumption of traffic 1990 - 2035 - Results of scenarios I - IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, M.

2007-01-01

This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents four scenarios concerning the development of energy consumption in the traffic sector for the period 1990 - 2035. The four scenarios - status quo, increased co-operation between the state and the economy with various energy levies, global reduction of energy consumption and, finally, scenario IV 'on the way to a 2000-Watt Society' - are briefly described. The areas examined include road, rail and air traffic as well as 'off-road' traffic. Infrastructure developments are commented on. The four scenarios are examined for various sensitivities including high gross domestic product GDP, high prices and warmer climate. Alternative fuels are looked at, as are further factors such as fuel tourism, pollutant emissions and costs. The results of the sensitivity analyses are compared and discussed and the necessary instruments are examined. This comprehensive report is completed with a comprehensive appendix

Pakistan energy consumption scenario and some alternate energy option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maher, M.J.

1997-01-01

Pakistan with its energy-deficient resources is highly dependent on import-oriented energy affected the economy because of repeated energy price hike on international horizon. The energy consumption pattern in Pakistan comprises about two-third in commercial energy and one-third in non-commercial forms. Most of the country's energy requirements are met by oil, gas hydro power, coal, nuclear energy and thermal power. Pakistan meets it's commercial energy requirements indigenously up to 64%. The balance of deficit of 35-40% is met through import. The consumption of various agro-residues and wood as fuel also plays a vital role. The analysis shows that emphasis needs to be placed on new and renewable resources of energy besides adopting technologies for energy conservation. Renewable energy depends on energy income and constitutes the development process. The are several renewable energy options such as biogas technology, micro-hydro power generation, direct solar energy and biomass energy conservation etc. By improving the conservation techniques as designs of solar converters, pre treating the biomass fuel, increasing the effectiveness of carbonization and pyrolysis increases the energy production. (A.B.)

Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zivkovic, Marija; Pereverza, Kateryna; Pasichnyi, Oleksii; Madzarevic, Aleksandar; Ivezic, Dejan; Kordas, Olga

2016-01-01

Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario. - Highlights: • Energy system modelling is integrated into the participatory backcasting process. • Five scenarios and BAU for heating system in Niš by 2030 are analysed in LEAP. • The final scenario is based on EE, RES, DH, smart technologies and green architecture. • The

Harnessing social networks for promoting adoption of energy technologies in the domestic sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bale, Catherine S.E.; McCullen, Nicholas J.; Foxon, Timothy J.; Rucklidge, Alastair M.; Gale, William F.

2013-01-01

This paper presents results from modelling work investigating the effects of social networks on the adoption of energy technologies in the domestic sector. This work concerns ideas on social network interventions which have been successfully applied in other domains but which have seldom been applied to energy policy questions. We employ a dynamical multi-parameter network model where households are represented as nodes on a network for which the uptake of technologies is influenced by both personal benefit and social influences. This is applied to demonstrate the usefulness of this type of model in assessing the likely success of different roll-out strategies that a local authority could pursue in promoting the uptake of domestic energy technologies. Local authorities can play a key role in the retrofit of energy-efficiency and low-carbon energy-generation technologies in order to realise carbon reductions and alleviate fuel poverty. Scenarios are modelled for different local authority interventions that target network interactions and uptake threshold effects, and the results provide insights for policy. The potential for the use of this type of modelling in understanding the adoption of energy innovations in the domestic sector and designing local-level interventions is demonstrated. - Highlights: • We model energy-technology adoption of households connected on a social network. • Adoption depends on both personal and social benefits to the household. • We investigate interventions that a local authority could take to increase uptake. • Increased uptake results from both threshold and network intervention scenarios. • Insights should be incorporated into design of local-level domestic interventions

Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-10-15

As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

Use of scenarios in the planning of the energy sector; Uso de escenarios en la planeacion del sector energetico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sacristan Roy, Antonio [Asociacion Mexicana para la Economia Energetica (AMEE), (Mexico)

2004-06-15

A scenario is a logical and congruent narration on the future, which describes the future in terms of the consequences on the surroundings of tendency forces (descriptive scenario) or as a result of caused changes (normative scenario). Unlike an econometric projection, that fundamentally considers economic forces, a scenario takes into consideration the impact of political, technological, social and legal forces, in addition to the economic ones, and the uncertainty of the future can be covered using several different scenarios. The construction of scenarios constitutes an extremely useful tool for long term planning of and the design of governmental policies for the energy sector. In this work an investment to twenty-five years in the national energy sector, with a long term planning of using scenarios, the design of a policy of the possible savings and bases for the future technological development and investigation effort is estimated. [Spanish] Un escenario es una narracion logica y congruente sobre el futuro, la cual describe el futuro en terminos de las consecuencias sobre el entorno de fuerzas tendenciales (escenario descriptivo) o como resultado de cambios provocados (escenario normativo). A diferencia de una proyeccion econometrica, que fundamentalmente considera fuerzas economicos, un escenario toma en consideracion el impacto de fuerzas politicas, tecnologicas, sociales y juridicas, ademas de las economicas, la incertidumbre del futuro se puede cubrir utilizando varios escenarios distintos. La construccion de escenarios constituye una herramienta sumamente util para la planeacion de largo plazo y el diseno de politicas gubernamentales para el sector energetico. En este trabajo se estima una inversion a veinticinco anos en el sector energetico nacional, con una planeacion de largo plazo utilizando escenarios, el diseno de una politica los posibles ahorros y la base para el futuro desarrollo tecnologico y esfuerzo de investigacion.

Agriculture energy prospective by 2030: scenarios and action patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

This paper presents and comments the main results of a work-group focused on the evolution of agriculture in France in relationship with the new energetic context. Four scenarios have been defined, corresponding to different energetic, but also social, political and economic contexts by 2030. The first one corresponds to a severe energy crisis with an emergence of regional governance. The second one corresponds to a high volatility of energy prices, an increased easing of restrictions on trade, and a decrease of public supports and subsidies for agriculture. The third one corresponds to a strong reduction of the use of phyto-sanitary products in agriculture, a continuous urban sprawl, and the prevalence of road transport. The fourth one corresponds to agriculture respectful of the environment and a good management of energy consumption. Direct and indirect energy consumptions are assessed for the four scenarios. Some general and operational objectives are thus identified

2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hong, Lixuan; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

2013-01-01

emphasis on improving its energy efficiency and utilizing its renewable resources in the future. This paper presents the integrated energy pathway for Jiangsu during its social and economic transformation until 2050. EnergyPLAN is the chosen energy system analysis tool, since it accounts for all sectors...... of the energy system that needs to be considered when integrating large-scale renewable energy. A Current Policy Scenario (CPS) based on current energy policies and an Ambitious Policy Scenario (APS) based on large-scale integration of renewable energy and ambitious measures of energy efficiency improvement......In 2009, Jiangsu province of China supplied 99.6 percent of its total energy consumption with fossil fuels, of which 82 percent was imported from other provinces and countries. With rising energy demand, frequent energy shortages, and increasing pollution, it is essential for Jiangsu to put more...

A 100% Renewable Energy Scenario for the Java-Bali Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Guenther

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Currently, many countries try to satisfy their energy needs with an increasing usage of renewable resources. The general motivations, with varying weighting in the different countries, are ecological reasons, concerns about energy security, and economical considerations. A for now rather theoretical question, although interesting for opening a long-term perspective, is how an energy supply from exclusively renewable energy resources could look like. This question has to be answered individually for any specific energy supply system. The present paper has the objective to present and evaluate a scenario for an electricity supply only from renewable energy resources for the Java-Bali grid. After designing a load time series for the year 2050 for the Java-Bali grid, a scenario is developed how to cover the load with electricity from renewable energy resources alone. Assumptions about the usable energy sources are made as well as assumptions about the available power plant capacity or energy potential. A specific challenge is the fact that solar energy must be the main source in such a renewable-energy based system, which comes with the need for a large storage capacity to match the power supply at any time with the load. Several possibilities are presented how to bring down the storage capacity: the increment of the installed PV capacity, the usage of bioenergy for seasonal balancing, and the complementation of the proposed short-term storage with an additional long-term storage. The study shows some of the specific challenges that a gradual transformation of the current electricity supply system on Java and Bali into a renewable-energy-based one would face and gives some hints about how to cope with these challenges. Scenarios like the one designed in this study are an important tool for decision-makers who face the task to scrutinize the consequences of choosing between different development paths.   Article History: Received: August 15th 2017

Carbon tax scenarios and their effects on the Irish energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Cosmo, Valeria; Hyland, Marie

2013-01-01

In this paper we use annual time series data from 1960 to 2008 to estimate the long run price and income elasticities underlying energy demand in Ireland. The Irish economy is divided into five sectors: residential, industrial, commercial, agricultural and transport, and separate energy demand equations are estimated for all sectors. Energy demand is broken down by fuel type, and price and income elasticities are estimated for the primary fuels in the Irish fuel mix. Using the estimated price and income elasticities we forecast Irish sectoral energy demand out to 2025. The share of electricity in the Irish fuel mix is predicted to grow over time, as the share of carbon intensive fuels such as coal, oil and peat, falls. The share of electricity in total energy demand grows most in the industrial and commercial sectors, while oil remains an important fuel in the residential and transport sectors. Having estimated the baseline forecasts, two different carbon tax scenarios are imposed and the impact of these scenarios on energy demand, carbon dioxide emissions, and government revenue is assessed. If it is assumed that the level of the carbon tax will track the futures price of carbon under the EU-ETS, the carbon tax will rise from €21.50 per tonne CO 2 in 2012 (the first year forecasted) to €41 in 2025. Results show that under this scenario total emissions would be reduced by approximately 861,000 tonnes of CO 2 in 2025 relative to a zero carbon tax scenario, and that such a tax would generate €1.1 billion in revenue in the same year. We also examine a high tax scenario under which emissions reductions and revenue generated will be greater. Finally, in order to assess the macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax, the carbon tax scenarios were run in HERMES, the ESRI's medium-term macroeconomic model. The results from HERMES show that, a carbon tax of €41 per tonne CO 2 would lead to a 0.21% contraction in GDP, and a 0.08% reduction in employment. A higher carbon

Impacts of CO2 emission constraints on technology selection and energy resources for power generation in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alam Hossain Mondal, Md.; Mathur, Jyotirmay; Denich, Manfred

2011-01-01

This paper examines the impacts of CO 2 emission reduction target and carbon tax on future technologies selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector during 2005-2035. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future energy demand without importing energy. However, alternative policies on CO 2 emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The results show that the introduction of the CO 2 emission reduction targets and carbon taxes directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based and clean renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the cumulative CO 2 emission reduction target of 10-20% and carbon tax of 2500 Taka/ton, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005-2035 would be reduced in the range of 39-65% and 37%, respectively, compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 4.5-22.3% in the CO 2 emission reduction targets and carbon tax 2500 Taka/ton scenarios and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario. - Research highlights: → MARKAL model is used for the analysis in Bangladesh power sector. → The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future electricity demand without importing fuel. → Alternative policies on CO 2 emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts.

Capacity building in renewable energy technologies in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fridleifsson, Ingvar

2010-09-15

The renewable energy sources are expected to provide 20-40% of the world primary energy in 2050, depending on scenarios. A key element in the mitigation of climate change is capacity building in renewable energy technologies in the developing countries, where the main energy use growth is expected. An innovative training programme for geothermal energy professionals developed in Iceland is an example of how this can be done effectively. In 1979-2009, 424 scientists/engineers from 44 developing countries have completed the 6 month courses. In many countries in Africa, Asia, C-America, and E-Europe, UNU-GTP Fellows are among the leading geothermal specialists.

ACCELERATOR TRANSMUTATION OF WASTE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beller, D.; Tuyle, G. van

2000-01-01

During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista; Un scenario energetique tendanciel pour la France a l'horizon 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giraud, P.N

2000-01-01

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO{sub 2} emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption: A case study in Lao People's Democratic Republic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mustonen, S.M.

2010-01-01

In developing countries, providing all citizens an access to modern forms of energy is among the central energy policy objectives, as the linkages between modern energy services and human development are widely recognized. This paper presents in a scenario analysis of rural energy consumption, how energy services in different sectors of a village economy contribute to the achievement of the UNDP Millennium Development Goals. In a rural village in Lao People's Democratic Republic, household energy demand and energy uses were surveyed immediately prior to the electrification of the village. Based on the situation preceding electrification of the village, the development of village electrification was studied by simulating the village energy system, accounting for all village energy uses but transportation. To study the potential development of electricity demand in the village, three scenarios were constructed using the LEAP model: 'residential demand', 'income generation' and 'public services'. Energy demand in each scenario was analyzed with reference to the Millennium Development Goals.

Participating to the Transition Towards New Energy Technology Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tosato, G.

2008-01-01

The paper analyses possible implications for Croatia of a global transition towards new energy technology systems, as depicted by the recent report on scenarios and strategies to 2050 of the International Energy Agency [ETP2008]. The analysis is based upon the present Croatian energy balance. It takes into account some draft results of the USAID-supported Regional Energy Demand Planning (REDP) study under the South East Europe Regional Energy Market Support (SEE REMS) Project. The paper then presents ongoing EC-funded energy research projects, such as RES2020 (Monitoring and Evaluation of the Renewable Energy Sources directives implementation in EU27 and policy recommendations for 2020), REACCESS (Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security) and REALISEGRID (REseArch, methodoLogIes and technologieS for the effective development of pan-European key GRID infrastructures to support the achievement of a reliable, competitive and sustainable electricity supply). The participation of Croatian research organizations to EC-funded research projects could make the transition towards new energy system an opportunity for economic development.(author)

Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costantini, V.; Markandya, A.; Vicini, G.

2007-01-01

This policy compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level. (author)

Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costantini, Valeria; Gracceva, Francesco; Markandya, Anil; Vicini, Giorgio

2007-01-01

This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level

The energy consumption of private households 1990 - 2035 - Results of scenarios I - IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hofer, P.

2007-01-01

This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents four scenarios concerning the development of energy consumption in Swiss private households for the period 1990 - 2035. The four scenarios - status quo, increased co-operation between the state and the economy with various levies, global reduction of energy consumption and, finally, scenario IV 'on the way to a 2000-Watt Society' - are briefly described. In particular, the scenarios are examined for various sensitivities: high gross domestic product GDP, high prices and warmer climate. The results of the sensitivity analyses are compared and discussed and the necessary instruments are examined. This comprehensive report contains a large number of data-tables and graphical representations

Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmid, Eva; Knopf, Brigitte

2012-01-01

This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO 2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO 2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context. - Highlights: ► Preferences of German civil society stakeholders are elicited in dialogues. ► Three scenarios represent likely, desirable and controversial key developments. ► A carbon lock-in from freight transport and coal electrification is deemed likely. ► Stakeholders advocate major paradigm shifts for resolving the carbon lock-in. ► Institutional and societal factors are decisive for achieving ambitious mitigation.

MEGASTAR: The meaning of growth. An assessment of systems, technologies, and requirements. [methodology for display and analysis of energy production and consumption

Science.gov (United States)

1974-01-01

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach methodology including the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption from the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario.

Marginal abatement cost and carbon reduction potential outlook of key energy efficiency technologies in China's building sector to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao, He; Wei, Qingpeng; Wang, Hailin

2014-01-01

China achieved an energy savings of 67.5 Mtce in the building sector at the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan and set a new target of 116 Mtce by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan. In this paper, an improved bottom-up model is developed to assess the carbon abatement potential and marginal abatement cost (MAC) of 34 selected energy-saving technologies/measures for China's building sector. The total reduction potential is 499.8 million t-CO 2 by 2030. 4.8 Gt-CO 2 potential will be achieved cumulatively to 2030. By 2030, total primary energy consumption of Chinese building sector will rise continuously to 1343 Mtce in the reference scenario and 1114 Mtce in the carbon reduction scenario. Total carbon dioxide emission will rise to 2.39 Gt-CO 2 and 1.9 Gt-CO 2 in two scenarios separately. The average carbon abatement cost of the aforementioned technologies is 19.5 $/t-CO 2 . The analysis reveals that strengthening successfully energy-saving technologies is important, especially for the residential building sector. The central government's direct investments in such technologies should be reduced without imposing significant negative effects. - Highlights: • MAC of 34 energy-saving technologies of China's building sector is calculated. • Energy use and CO 2 emission of China's building sector by 2030 is forecasted. • The reference and the carbon reduction scenarios are compared

Energy Technology Roll-Out for Climate Change Mitigation: A Multi-Model Study for Latin America

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Zwaan, B.; Kober, T.; Calderon, S.; Clarke, L.; Daenzer, K.; Kitous, A.; Labriet, M.; Lucena, A.F.P.; Octaviano, C.; Di Sbroiavacca, N.

In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be

Energy-environment scenarios for Senegal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lazarus, M. [Stockholm Environment Inst. Boston, MA (United States); Diallo, S.; Sokona, Y. [Environment and Development in the Third World, Dakar (Senegal)

1994-06-01

This paper explores the energy and environmental dimensions of proposed energy strategies for Senegal. We do so using a quantitative analytical framework, and begin to explore how useful such numerical methods can be in an African context. Based on past studies and the environmental database system, we develop a set of emission factors for use in Senegal. Finally, we address ways to integrate the often unquantifiable environmental and economics cost and benefits for environmentally informed decision making. In summary, we find that polices intended to promote the substitution of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) for charcoal in households can actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to the improvement of more important near-term environmental problems. At the same time, the impacts of LPG substitution on increasing the oil import bill is relatively small when compared to other petroleum product usage.Improving end-use energy efficiency also shows promise, suggesting that new demand-side initiatives are needed. Overall, the integrated energy-environment scenario approach can reveal combined policy impacts that might otherwise be missed in a single project or policy approach. 13 figs, 5 tabs

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L.; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C.

2017-01-09

Urban areas play a significant role in planetary sustainability. While the scale of impending urbanization is well acknowledged, we have a limited understanding on how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use, specifically, for heating and cooling. We also assess associated cobenefits and trade-offs with human well-being. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by midcentury will reach anywhere from about 45 EJ/yr to 59 EJ/yr (respectively, increases of 5% to 40% over the 2010 estimate). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban forms of rapidly growing cities in Asia and, particularly, in China. Compact urban development overall leads to less energy use in urban environments. Delaying the retrofit of the existing built environment leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in the energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared to the business-as-usual scenario in energy use for heating and cooling in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contribute to energy savings in North America and Europe. A systemic effort that focuses on both urban form and energy-efficient technologies, but also accounts for potential co-benefits and trade-offs, can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in mega-urban regions, such efforts can improve local environments for billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

Long-term affected energy production of waste to energy technologies identified by use of energy system analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Münster, Marie; Meibom, Peter

2010-01-01

Affected energy production is often decisive for the outcome of consequential life-cycle assessments when comparing the potential environmental impact of products or services. Affected energy production is however difficult to determine. In this article the future long-term affected energy...... production is identified by use of energy system analysis. The focus is on different uses of waste for energy production. The Waste-to-Energy technologies analysed include co-combustion of coal and waste, anaerobic digestion and thermal gasification. The analysis is based on optimization of both investments...... and production of electricity, district heating and bio-fuel in a future possible energy system in 2025 in the countries of the Northern European electricity market (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Germany). Scenarios with different CO2 quota costs are analysed. It is demonstrated that the waste...

Renewables, nuclear, or fossil fuels? Scenarios for Great Britain’s power system considering costs, emissions and energy security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfenninger, Stefan; Keirstead, James

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We compare a large number of cost-optimal future power systems for Great Britain. • Scenarios are assessed on cost, emissions reductions, and energy security. • Up to 60% of variable renewable capacity is possible with little cost increase. • Higher shares require storage, imports or dispatchable renewables such as tidal range. - Abstract: Mitigating climate change is driving the need to decarbonize the electricity sector, for which various possible technological options exist, alongside uncertainty over which options are preferable in terms of cost, emissions reductions, and energy security. To reduce this uncertainty, we here quantify two questions for the power system of Great Britain (England, Wales and Scotland): First, when compared within the same high-resolution modeling framework, how much do different combinations of technologies differ in these three respects? Second, how strongly does the cost and availability of grid-scale storage affect overall system cost, and would it favor some technology combinations above others? We compare three main possible generation technologies: (1) renewables, (2) nuclear, and (3) fossil fuels (with/without carbon capture and storage). Our results show that across a wide range of these combinations, the overall costs remain similar, implying that different configurations are equally feasible both technically and economically. However, the most economically favorable scenarios are not necessarily favorable in terms of emissions or energy security. The availability of grid-scale storage in scenarios with little dispatchable generation can reduce overall levelized electricity cost by up to 50%, depending on storage capacity costs. The UK can rely on its domestic wind and solar PV generation at lower renewable shares, with levelized costs only rising more than 10% above the mean of 0.084 GBP/kWh for shares of 50% and below at a 70% share, which is 35% higher. However, for more than an 80% renewable

Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

1998-01-01

This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible ''technology paths'' to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of ''alternative'' electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic

Innovative method of RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klevas, Valentinas; Biekša, Kestutis; Murauskaitė, Lina

2014-01-01

Scarcity or abundance of energy resources usually depends on physical and geographical conditions in the region. However, the energy flow in the region also depends on the efficient use of energy resources, the consumption rate of energy and the possibility to use local renewable and non-renewable energy resources. Production, distribution and the use of energy resources in the region are the challenges for central and local government, business and social service, customers and other stakeholders. Development of regional energy economy should be optimized according to the available energy flow in the region using a network system analysis method, which provides solutions for developing sustainable energy economy models. The network system analysis method enables to optimize the use of local and renewable resources at the regional level and reveals available local energy resources. An efficient use of available regional resources and the use of renewable energy sources (RES) should be the main goals for the development of regional energy system. RES can compete with traditional fossil fuel with the condition that all hidden aspects are revealed. The network system analysis method enables to indicate energy flows in the region as well as indicate pros and cons of using renewable energy technologies. - Highlights: • RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios is done. • Innovative process network system (PNS) analysis method is used. • PNS method is used to optimize the use of local and renewable resources. • Analysis of energy flow in region using PNS method is done

Scenario Development and Delphi Application in Life Cycle Assessment for Assessing Environmental Impact of New Technology Case Study: Removal of Wind Turbines Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Devina Fitrika Dewi

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Certain technology is intended to create eco-efficient products or process or is developed as answer to the recent challenge. This kind of technology consequently can also create another impact therefore it shall be assessed and analyzed.The focus of the study is on assessment method namely Life Cycle Analysis (LCA, Scenario development and Delphi application. The objective is to understand benefits and drawbacks of the combined methodology and observe practicality of its implementation for assessing new technology. The distinctive feature comes from the combination of social and technological foresight (as Delphi application and future studies (as Scenario development which are applied in the environmental assessment of a product (by Life Cycle Analysis.The utilization of LCA-Scenario-Delphi case study as an explanatory example is presented in the Removal Wind Turbines Project by the Danish Energy Agency. The wind turbine is considered new technology with some of it phases are yet to occur, for example: removal of turbines after phase out stage. Technology Assessment by LCA-Scenario-Delphi is complicated procedure, but necessary to validate the results. The drawbacks of this procedure are extensive time it consumes and the dependency on public participation and/or expert willingness to participate. Nonetheless, its advantages are due to its interactive feature; integration of knowledge from different areas of expertise and its assessment’s characteristic which focuses on process.

New technology adoption for Russian energy generation: What does it cost? A case study for Moscow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bratanova, Alexandra; Robinson, Jacqueline; Wagner, Liam

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Power generation cost is modelled for a Russian region under two gas price scenarios. • Conventional, new and renewable technologies are compared based on levelised cost. • Regional energy system is shown to be crucially dependent on natural gas prices. • We conclude that new gas-fired technology adoption is feasible and cost-competitive. • Biomass demonstrates cost competitiveness, whereas solar appears infeasible. - Abstract: Russia is frequently referred to as a country with substantial energy efficiency and renewable energy potential. In 2000–2008 energy-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios were improved by 35%, however, the contribution of technological progress accounts for only 1% of the energy-GDP ratio reduction. At the same time, although new policy mechanisms to stimulate renewable energy development have been recently introduced, renewable technology deployment has not yet taken off. Economic theory suggests that there is no better incentive for industry development than cost signals. This paper adapts the levelised cost of energy methodology to examine the cost structures associated with electricity generation by conventional and new technology types for a Russian region (Moscow). The model, run for two fuel price scenarios, allowed us to conclude that the regional energy supply system is heavily dependent on the natural gas price and that the diversification provided by technology development will be beneficial for the energy security of the region. We conclude that new and renewable technologies become cost-effective for electricity generation as domestic natural gas prices reach parity with export prices. However, strong political and financial support is needed to boost technological development and renewables application in Russia.

Scenarios for the transportation sector's energy consumption in Denmark. Focus on road transport. Documentation report; Scenarier for transportsektorens energiforbrug i Danmark. Med fokus paa vejtransporten. Dokumentationsrapport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hethey, J.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A.; Lindboe, H.H.

2011-05-15

The purpose of this project was to make a number of predictions of how the Danish energy consumption for transport purposes may evolve until 2035. The analyses include the total energy consumption for passenger and freight transport and transportation-related energy consumption in the production industry. Air and maritime transport and freight trains are not considered in the analyses. Five scenarios have been calculated, including a reference scenario, three technology scenarios (efficiency, electric vehicle, a biofuel scenario), and a combined scenario. For all scenarios, the development of fuel consumption is calculated and CO{sub 2} emissions both locally and totally are presented. The analyses show that the total energy consumption and total CO{sub 2} emission had a peak in 2007, after which the already registered decrease is likely to continue. This continued decline happens in spite of continued growth in transport services, primarily due to the assumed and expected development of more fuel-efficient cars. (ln)

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations; Scenari energetici italiani a confronto

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Contaldi, Mario [Agenzia per la Protezione dell' Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici-APAT, Roma (Italy)

2005-09-15

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed. [Italian] Questo articolo riporta alcuni dei piu rappresentativi ed aggiornati scenari di evoluzione dei consumi energetici primari italiani. Dopo un esame delle principali variabili macroeconomiche i risultati degli scenari sono esaminati a livello di settore, con una breve discussione delle principali variabili utilizzate. Infine sono state anche esaminate le emissioni di CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} e NO{sub x} risultanti dai diversi scenari e le possibili conseguenze sul piano normativo.

Visions on energy production technologies for Finland up to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kara, Mikko

2003-01-01

The energy sector will face major challenges in the coming decades. Global demand for primary energy is continuously increasing, as are its related environmental effects. On the other hand, the limited resources of especially oil and gas will lead to increasing price instability. Deregulation of energy markets is a challenge for the infrastructure. This deregulation is leading to restructuring of the energy market. States and owners of energy companies and energy policy decision-makers will find it difficult to play this double role. At European level and in Finland the biggest challenge is the attainment of the Kyoto target and then further reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Renewables, nuclear power and growing imports of natural gas from Russia will play a crucial role in Finland. This presentation focuses on the development of the energy production technologies that are most important for Finland's energy supply and energy technology exports. In order to analyse the possible role of various emerging and evolving technologies in the future energy system of Finland, three scenarios has been created for a comprehensive energy system model. The model is based on a bottom-up, technology oriented representation of the energy system, including both the supply and end-use sector. Mathematically, the model is a quasi-dynamic linear optimisation model that stimulates the behaviour of energy-economic decision-making by minimising the total present value of all costs and other expenditures in the energy system during the entire time horizon under consideration. (BA)

Assessment of the potential of state-of-the-art biomass technologies in contributing to a sustainable SADC regional mitigation energy scenario[Southern African Development Community

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamba, F.D.; Matsika, E. [Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia, Lusaka (Zambia)

2003-09-01

Southern Africa's energy supply is based on power sector collaboration - the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). SAPP was created in 1995 through an inter-utility memorandum of understanding among 12 of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) utilities including Congo DR. The aims of SAPP are: To increase regional security of supply; To smoothen load curves; To engender economies of scale in the supply base; To increase revenue for exporting countries by opening up a ready market; To share power to meet national shortfalls and to off set temporary deficits in the medium term, and in the long term to adopt and implement power sharing as an operational strategy aimed at maximising financial and environmental benefits. Currently, SAPP has an operational installed capacity of 45.000 MW, of which 84% is thermal, predominantly coal based, which represents 79% of the total supply. 16% of the total SAPP interconnected supply is hydro, while the contribution from biomass is currently non-existent. The sugar industry in Southern Africa can significantly alter this picture. Increased competitive pressures serve as economic incentives for the sugar industry to diversify their product portfolio by investing in renewable energy applications. Of the new state-of-the-art biomass based technologies available Condensing Extraction Steam Turbine (CEST) is the most promising. Application of CEST technologies in Southern Africa will modestly contribute towards a sustainable energy supply mitigation scenario. If implemented, the contribution of bioenergy will increase from 0.5% for the baseline situation, to 2.5% in 2030 and 3.0% in 2050. This scenario will also yield global environmental benefits potential through saving of GHG reductions to 14 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2030 and 20 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2050. Furthermore, this paper produces a monogram which will assist investors in making decisions whether to invest in the Kyoto Protocols Clean Development

Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, K; Joergensen, Kaj [Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK); Werling, J; OErsted Pedersen, H; Kofoed-Wiuff, A [Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK)

2008-02-15

The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas emissions

Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D. Danny

2014-01-01

This paper explores the extent to which global fuel use in buildings could be reduced, and the growth in global electricity use in buildings limited, by applying stringent (factor of 3–4) improvements to recent building codes for new buildings worldwide and large (factor of 2–3) reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through renovations. The analysis is carried out for 10 different socio-economic regions of the world, taking into account existing building stock and energy intensities in each region and projected changes in population and income, which in most parts of the world will drive large increases in building floor area. A stock turnover model is applied to project changes in heating, cooling, service hot water (SHW) and non-thermal electricity demand with various rates of improvement in standards for new and renovated buildings, and various rates of renovation and demolition of existing buildings. For a scenario in which population peaks at about 9 billion and global average per capita GDP increases to twice the 2010 value by 2100, the global fuel demand could be reduced by a factor of four while limiting maximum annual electricity demand to twice the 2010 value. - Highlights: • A detailed model for generating global scenarios of building energy use is presented. • Drivers of increasing energy use are population and per capita GDP in 10 regions. • Heating, cooling and ventilation energy uses are projected using a stock turnover model. • Global building fuel demand could decrease by 60–80% by 2100 relative to 2010. • Global building electricity demand could be limited to a 100–200% increase

Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

2016-01-01

This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

Scenarios of application of energy certification procedure for residential buildings in Lebanon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cantin, R.; Mourtada, A.; Guarracino, G.; Adra, N.; Nasser, M.; Maamari, F.

2007-01-01

This paper describes the results of a French-Lebanese scientific cooperation, between 2001 and 2005, about 'Rational use of energy in the residential buildings in Lebanon and adaptation of an energy certification procedure'. The aim of this project is to promote the energy efficiency in the existing residential buildings in Lebanon, using an energy certification procedure, and to evaluate the energy certification foresight with prospective methods. The paper first describes an energy investigation in Lebanese residential buildings, and the energy certification procedure. It presents the foresight methodology implemented to identify the key variables and the actors. Finally, the paper exposes the morphological method which allows to elaborate three scenarios of energy performance certification. These scenarios are presented in order to provide a decision making for the actors of the Lebanese energy policy

Integrated modelling of economic-energy-environment scenarios - The impact of China and India's economic growth on energy use and CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, F.; Sassi, O.; Guivarch, C.; Waisman, H.; Crassous, R.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

2009-03-01

A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macro-economic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the micro-economic and macro-economic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency. (authors)

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Exploring past energy changes and their implications for the pace of penetration of new energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lund, P.D.

2010-01-01

Possible growth paths for new electricity generation technologies are investigated on the basis of an empirical analysis of past penetration rates. Finding and understanding high market penetration scenarios is relevant to formulating climate change mitigation strategies. The analysis shows that under favorable growth conditions, photovoltaics and wind could produce 15% and 25%, respectively, of world electricity by 2050. Under the same assumptions nuclear power could increase to 41% of world electricity. But it is unlikely that all three technology paths could be realized up to these values simultaneously and therefore the penetration rates presented here should be considered as indicative only. The results show that under positive conditions, an embryonic technology could move as a preferred option into a mainstream energy source within half a century. The introduction of growth constraints reflecting, e.g., severe economic, technical, or political limitations could reduce the above numbers by a factor of up to 2-3. The results indicate a decline in the relative year-to-year growth of new technologies when they have higher market shares. A comparison of the results with other short-term and long-term technology scenarios shows satisfactory agreement.

Developing Renewable Energy: Comparative Scenarios and Public Policy Perspectives from some Latin American Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudia Cecilia Lardizabal

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The energy matrix of Latin American and the Caribbean countries has one of the largest renewable energy components when compared to other regions of the world. Nonetheless, by 2009 nearly three-quarters of its structure corresponded to fossil fuels, with most of the countries being net importers of these fuels. This situation marks the region´s dependence on the effects of changes in energy commodities. Therefore, the opportunity lies in higher use of renewable energy sources that contribute to the country´s energy security and represent significant environmental benefits. The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis of current energy scenarios of six Latin American countries (Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua, Brazil, Ecuador and Chile in order to evaluate the policies, programs and strategies implemented in the search for greater participation of renewable energy. Considering the importance of the water-energy nexus that could serve to promote renewables under conditions of water scarcity, a qualitative data comparison was accomplished, considering energy consumption, CO2 emissions, GDP and water withdrawals per country. The authors conclude that, despite technological and financial constraints, all the involved countries are moving towards the substitution of a fossil fuel based matrix to a renewable one. This process could be seen as a result of clear policies and strategies that have been set, which include (but are not limited to price regulations setting, preferential prices to electricity generated through renewable energy technologies and incentives formulated to encourage the production of biofuels.

Power Electronics – The Key Technology for Renewable Energy System Integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blaabjerg, Frede; Yang, Yongheng; Ma, Ke

2015-01-01

The energy paradigms in many countries (e.g. Germany and Denmark) have experienced a significant change from fossil-based resources to clean renewables (e.g. wind turbines and photovoltaics) in the past few decades. The scenario of highly penetrated renewables is going to be further enhanced...... – Denmark expects to be 100 % fossil-free by 2050. Consequently, it is required that the production, distribution and use of the energy should be as technologically efficient as possible and incentives to save energy at the end-user should also be strengthened. In order to realize the transition smoothly...... and effectively, energy conversion systems, currently based on power electronics technology, will again play an essential role in this energy paradigm shift. Using highly efficient power electronics in power generation, power transmission/distribution and end-user application, together with advanced control...

Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

2017-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

A comparison of the newest scenarios for energy supply in Switzerland and their results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schucan, T.H.

1984-09-01

The author defines an energy scenario and considers several such scenarios for Switzerland. A presentation of perspectives is given, followed by an analysis of the scenario. Remarks are made on the energy economy and on the environmental loading (specific emissions for heat pumps and block heat power stations, total emission for the year 2020 and radiation loading for people and plants in Switzerland). (A.N.K.)

Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Energy scenarios for PAREST. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joerss, Wolfram; Degel, Melanie

2013-01-01

In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM 10 und PM 2,5 ), and aerosol precursors SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this part of the report to PAREST energy scenarios used for PAREST are presented. [de

Renewable energy: past trends and future growth in 2 degrees scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Crijns-Graus, Wina

2016-01-01

This study explores past growth rates of renewable energy sources (1971-2012) and required future ones in 2 degrees scenarios. Results show that in spite of comparatively high growth of renewable energy in the period 2000-2012, the share of renewable energy in total energy use stayed the same (13%).

Technology utilization and energy efficiency: Lessons learned and future prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosenberg, N.

1992-01-01

The concept of energy efficiency within the context of economic and environmental policy making is quite complex. Relatively poor economic performance ratings can weaken the validity of some energy supply systems which tend to reduce energy inputs for specific volumes of output, but don't minimize total cost per unit product; and industry is often slow to adopt new technologies, even those proven to reduce total costs. In this paper, the problems connected with growth in energy requirements in relation to product are first examined within the context of world economic performance history. Three key elements are shown to explain the differences in energy intensity and consumption typology among various countries, i.e., availability of energy sources, prices and government policies. Reference is made to the the role of recent energy prices and policies in the United States whose industrialization has been directly connected with the vast availability of some energy sources. In delineating possible future energy scenarios, the paper cites the strong influence of long term capital investment on the timing of the introduction of energy efficient technologies into industrial process schemes. It illustrates the necessity for flexibility in new energy strategies which are to take advantage the opportunities offered by a wide range of alternative energy sources now being made available through technological innovation

Ten factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks for health information technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Russ, Alissa L; Saleem, Jason J

2018-02-01

The quality of usability testing is highly dependent upon the associated usability scenarios. To promote usability testing as part of electronic health record (EHR) certification, the Office of the National Coordinator (ONC) for Health Information Technology requires that vendors test specific capabilities of EHRs with clinical end-users and report their usability testing process - including the test scenarios used - along with the results. The ONC outlines basic expectations for usability testing, but there is little guidance in usability texts or scientific literature on how to develop usability scenarios for healthcare applications. The objective of this article is to outline key factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks to evaluate computer-interface based health information technologies. To achieve this goal, we draw upon a decade of our experience conducting usability tests with a variety of healthcare applications and a wide range of end-users, to include healthcare professionals as well as patients. We discuss 10 key factors that influence scenario development: objectives of usability testing; roles of end-user(s); target performance goals; evaluation time constraints; clinical focus; fidelity; scenario-related bias and confounders; embedded probes; minimize risks to end-users; and healthcare related outcome measures. For each factor, we present an illustrative example. This article is intended to aid usability researchers and practitioners in their efforts to advance health information technologies. The article provides broad guidance on usability scenario development and can be applied to a wide range of clinical information systems and applications. Published by Elsevier Inc.