Exploring nuclear energy scenarios - implications of technology and fuel cycle choices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rayment, Fiona; Mathers, Dan; Gregg, Robert

2014-01-01

Nuclear Energy is recognised globally as a mature, reliable low carbon technology with a secure and abundant fuel source. Within the UK, Nuclear Energy is an essential contributor to the energy mix and as such a decision has been made to refresh the current nuclear energy plants to at least replacement of the existing nuclear fleet. This will mean the building of new nuclear power plant to ensure energy production of 16 GWe per annum. However it is also recognised that this may not be enough and as such expansion scenarios ranging from replacement of the existing fleet to 75 GWe nuclear energy capacity are being considered (see appendix). Within these energy scenarios, a variety of options are being evaluated including electricity generation only, electricity generation plus heat, open versus closed fuel cycles, Generation III versus Generation IV systems and combinations of the above. What is clear is that the deciding factor on the type and mix of any energy programme will not be on technology choice alone. Instead a complex mix of Government policy, relative cost of nuclear power, market decisions and public opinion will influence the rate and direction of growth of any future energy programme. The UK National Nuclear Laboratory has supported this work through the use and development of a variety of assessment and modelling techniques. When assessing nuclear energy scenarios, the technology chosen will impact on a number of parameters within each scenario which includes but is not limited to: - Economics, - Nuclear energy demand, - Fuel Supply, - Spent fuel storage / recycle, - Geological repository volumetric and radiological capacity, - Sustainability - effective resource utilisation, - Technology viability and readiness level. A number of assessment and modelling techniques have been developed and are described further. In particular, they examine fuel cycle options for a number of nuclear energy scenarios, whilst exploring key implications for a particular

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Technology penetration and capital stock turnover. Lessons from IEA scenario analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Philibert, C. [International Energy Agency IEA, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France)

2007-05-15

The aim of this paper is to reflect on the significant differences between the emissions reductions projections in mid-term and long-term scenarios, and to explore their policy implications. It draws mainly on two recent IEA publications: the 2006 World Energy Outlook (WEO), which contains energy and energy-related CO2 projections up to 2030, and the 2006-published Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), which considers scenarios and strategies up to 2050. The analysis focuses on a comparison of the Alternative Policy Scenario of the 2006 WEO, and the various Accelerated Technology (ACT) Scenarios in the ETP. The next section provides the necessary background on these two publications and their energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The third section investigates in some more depth the reasons for the large differences in the amount of emission reductions at these dates. Capital stock turnover and technology maturation lead times, in particular, are identified as primary reasons for the differences. The fourth section suggests several possible policy conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis. They include thought pieces with respect to the action required in the short-term; to the necessity of long-term signals; to the advantages and limitations of short-term targets; and to the opportunities and challenges the international community faces with respect to emission reductions in developing countries.

Development scenario for laser fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

1976-01-01

This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

Exploring Accessibility Scenarios for 2020 in Relation with Future ICT Trends on Assistive Technology and Accessibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adamantios Koumpis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we are going to present a set of 5 future scenarios that were developed within the eAccessibility2020 study. The study aims to explore and analyse the referred relationships between the emerging ICT landscape, in the societal and economic context and the development and provision of assistive technologies (AT and e-Accessibility, within a perspective of 10 years. The scenarios were developed after an initial trend analysis that the study team conducted based on data gathering. The scenarios were developed based on a methodology which defined a set of guides for scenario development and a set of visions for the future of eAccessibility.

Energy technology perspectives - scenarios and strategies to 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-11-03

At their 2005 summit in Gleneagles, G8 leaders confronted questions of energy security and supply and lowering of CO{sub 2} emissions and decided to act with resolve and urgency. They called upon the International Energy Agency to provide advice on scenarios and strategies for a clean and secure energy future. Energy Technology Perspectives is a response to the G8 request. This work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050. It reviews in detail the status and prospects of key energy technologies in electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. It assesses ways the world can enhance energy security and contain growth in CO{sub 2} emissions by using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies. Major strategic elements of a successful portfolio are energy efficiency, CO{sub 2} capture and storage, renewables and nuclear power. 110 figs., 4 annexes.

Future scenarios for the development of nuclear power. How will nuclear power develop over the next twenty to forty years?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pickett, Susan E.

2009-01-01

Nuclear power technology has developed significantly over the past 60 years to the point that today it supplies the world with 15% of its electricity; and there are plans for continued development. However, the continued growth of nuclear power is not without challenges. The nuclear industry must remain competitive in the face of challenges ranging from environmental considerations and proliferation concerns to ensuring safe and often transparent operations. Understanding these and other issues, as well as their underlying causes, can help the industry leaders create more robust strategies and effectively implement nuclear fuel cycle decisions. Robust strategies are ones that can be effective even when circumstances change, due to events such as opposition, new scientific information, changes in resource availability, or introduction of competing technologies. Scenario planning is tool which can help planners and decision makers create a strategic conversation about the future and how to manage and plan in a time of accelerated change and complexity. In this paper, scenario planning is introduced and the development of nuclear power is examined against the back drop of four future scenarios, specifically looking at how variations in environmental quality, resource availability, security and proliferation, and safety may affect the development of nuclear power. The scenarios discussed provide a starting point to improve the understanding of issues and opportunities facing the global nuclear power industry and ultimately, to improve strategies for technology development. Such scenarios may be employed as a basis for collaboration and communication amongst the stakeholders involved in the development of nuclear technology. (author)

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Retel, Valesca; Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; van Harten, Willem H.

2012-01-01

Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and

Emerging Requirements for Technology Management: A Sector-based Scenario Planning Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Patrick Philbin

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Identifying the emerging requirements for technology management will help organisations to prepare for the future and remain competitive. Indeed technology management as a discipline needs to develop and respond to societal and industrial needs as well as the corresponding technology challenges. Therefore, following a review of technology forecasting methodologies, a sector-based scenario planning approach has been used to derive the emerging requirements for technology management. This structured framework provided an analytical lens to focus on the requirements for managing technology in the healthcare, energy and higher education sectors over the next 5-10 years. These requirements include the need for new business models to support the adoption of technologies; integration of new technologies with existing delivery channels; management of technology options including R&D project management; technology standards, validation and interoperability; and decision-making tools to support technology investment.

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

Fusion development and technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montgomery, D.B.

1991-01-01

This report discusses the following topics: superconducting magnet technology high field superconductors; advanced magnetic system and divertor development; poloidal field coils; gyrotron development; commercial reactor studies -- Aries; ITER physics; ITER superconducting PF scenario and magnet analysis; and safety, environmental and economic factors in fusion development

Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

2007-12-01

There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Study of Near Field Communication Technology in University Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz, Irene Luque; Miraz, Guillermo Matas; Gómez-Nieto, Miguel Ángel

2009-08-01

In this paper we present an introduction to the possibilities of NFC (Near Field Communication) technology in the University environment. NFC is the key for the development of interactive systems where "intelligent" objects interact with the user just only by touching the objects with a NFC device. We support that a University environment with active objects dispatching information and services to the users (students and teachers) can introduce an appropriate environment for the fulfillment of the new Educational European directives. Here, we briefly describe some of the possibilities of the NFC technology and we include an example of the use of NFC through a Smart Poster for a scenario where a Department directory is considered.

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

Technology versus demand regulation - strategic modelling of transport, land use and energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfaffenbichler, Paul C.; Shepherd, Simon

2007-01-01

Scarcity of oil supply is seen as one of the biggest future threats to our society. The recently finished EU-funded research project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects) had the objective to develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and the energy supply of the future taking into account the effects on the environment as well as economic and social viability. Two energy supply scenarios, one with and one without scarcity of oil supply, form the basis of STEPs. Furthermore two different policies are suggested to tackle the problem of scarcity of oil: a technology driven strategy and a demand regulation based strategy. This paper presents the application of these scenarios and strategies to the strategic Systems Dynamics model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) covering the metropolitan area of Edinburgh. Scenario indicators like car ownership, fleet composition and fuel resource costs were provided by the European model ASTRA and the world energy market model POLES. The first part of the paper summarises the scenarios and strategies in detail. The second part describes briefly some basics of Systems Dynamics as well as the main mechanisms underlying the model MARS. Finally the results of the scenario simulations are presented. The main outcome is that a demand regulation policy is more effective in reducing the consumption of non-renewable energy resources than a technology driven policy

Emissions from international shipping. Pt. 2: Impact of future technologies - scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyring, V.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

2004-01-01

We use the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future scenarios we first discuss upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements. We present geographically resolved emission inventory forecast scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions of future ship traffic demand and technological improvements. The future ship traffic demand scenario is mainly determined by the economic growth and the growth in world seaborne trade and distinguishes between different ship types. The annual growth rates of sea trade volumes and expected vessel traffic density is assumed to be smaller for today's most frequently sailed routes (in particular east-west-trades) than for those that are currently less frequently sailed (in particular south-north-trades). This leads to an adjustment of the number of ships sailing the different shipping routes in 2020 and even stronger in 2050. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in an estimated fuel consumption of 422 million metric tons (Mt) and 1226 Tg CO 2 emissions. For 2050 one scenario for fuel consumption assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by using future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption of 422 Mt and 1339 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate of 646 Mt and 1783 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced we present four different technology scenarios. (orig.)

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Perspectives of energy technologies: scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista; Perspectives des technologies de l'energie: scenarios et strategies a l'horizon 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

Every two years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes the 'Energy Technology Perspectives' (ETP) report which analyses the foreseeable energy scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista and stresses on the best available technologies. For the first time, the IEA describes in this study a scenario allowing to divide by two the CO{sub 2} emissions at the world scale, i.e. compatible with the 'factor 4' scenario of industrialized countries. The study estimates the R and D needs and the necessary additional investments to meet the different tendentious and voluntaristic scenarios proposed by the IEA. This 15. session of the cycle of energy-climate conferences aimed at presenting, from the ETP 2008 study, a thorough examination of the present day situation and perspectives of existing or future 'clean' energy technologies through the analysis of several scenarios. An examination of the interpretation of these scenarios at the France and European levels is made in order to define what should be the trends of public policies and international cooperation. This document gathers the transparencies of the two presentations given during this conference. The first presentation by Pieter Boot, Director of the Office of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology of IEA, makes a synthesis of the ETP study and presents the recommendations of the agency. The second presentation by Olivier Appert, President of the French institute of petroleum (IFP), gives a counterpoint of the first presentation by considering the financing and acceptance aspects, in particular from the French point of view. Finally a debate with the audience completes the presentations. (J.S.)

A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

Perspectives of energy technologies: scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Every two years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes the 'Energy Technology Perspectives' (ETP) report which analyses the foreseeable energy scenarios and strategies at the 2050 vista and stresses on the best available technologies. For the first time, the IEA describes in this study a scenario allowing to divide by two the CO 2 emissions at the world scale, i.e. compatible with the 'factor 4' scenario of industrialized countries. The study estimates the R and D needs and the necessary additional investments to meet the different tendentious and voluntaristic scenarios proposed by the IEA. This 15. session of the cycle of energy-climate conferences aimed at presenting, from the ETP 2008 study, a thorough examination of the present day situation and perspectives of existing or future 'clean' energy technologies through the analysis of several scenarios. An examination of the interpretation of these scenarios at the France and European levels is made in order to define what should be the trends of public policies and international cooperation. This document gathers the transparencies of the two presentations given during this conference. The first presentation by Pieter Boot, Director of the Office of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology of IEA, makes a synthesis of the ETP study and presents the recommendations of the agency. The second presentation by Olivier Appert, President of the French institute of petroleum (IFP), gives a counterpoint of the first presentation by considering the financing and acceptance aspects, in particular from the French point of view. Finally a debate with the audience completes the presentations. (J.S.)

Scenarios for a urban energy transition. Actors, regulations, technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Debizet, Gilles; Blanco, Sylvie; Buclet, Nicolas; Forest, Fabrice; Gauthier, Caroline; La Branche, Stephane; Menanteau, Philippe; Schneuwly, Patrice; Tabourdeau, Antoine

2016-01-01

Cities concentrate populations, consumptions, levers of actions, and are places of various experiments for energy transition. This book aims at giving an overview of possible scenarios of development of renewable energies in urban context. It is based on interviews of actors of the energy, building and urban planning sectors by researchers in town planning, management, technology, political and economic sciences. The authors examine what would occur if large companies would manage entire quarters, if local authorities would supervise production and supply, if the State would take control of all fields of action again, or if consumer cooperatives would exchange energy and pool productions. In its different chapters, the book presents four scenarios of energy coordination in urban context by 2040, discuss energy transition in urban spaces, discuss the perspectives of evolution towards more autonomous cities and quarters from an energetic point of view, and discuss business models and urban energetic innovations

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Development of a digital mock-up system for selecting a decommissioning scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

2006-01-01

The evaluation of decommissioning scenarios is critical to the successful development and execution of a decommissioning project. In the past, many experts have used a physical mock-up system to find the exact work processes and the working positions. Nowadays, these jobs are being done by a Digital Mock-Up (DMU) system. The DMU, which is a technology to realize an effective work process by using virtual environments through representing the physical and logical schema and the behavior of a real decommissioning work, can save on the cost and time, reduce the risk of making later changes, and develop various decommissioning scenarios. In this research, a decommissioning DMU system was developed for simulating the relevant dismantling processes. Decommissioning data-computing modules which can calculate a dismantling schedule, quantify a radioactive waste, visualize a radioactive inventory, estimate a decommissioning cost, and estimate a worker's exposure were also developed to qualitatively assess the decommissioning information. And an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model was developed to evaluate the decommissioning scenarios which reflected the quantitative and qualitative considerations. To establish the proper scenario for the thermal column in KRR-1, the developed decommissioning DMU system was applied to evaluate the two candidate scenarios of it

Energy technology perspectives: scenarios and strategies to 2050 [Russian version

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

At their 2005 summit in Gleneagles, G8 leaders confronted questions of energy security and supply and lowering of CO{sub 2} emissions and decided to act with resolve and urgency. They called upon the International Energy Agency to provide advice on scenarios and strategies for a clean and secure energy future. Energy Technology Perspectives is a response to the G8 request. This work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050. It reviews in detail the status and prospects of key energy technologies in electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. It assesses ways the world can enhance energy security and contain growth in CO{sub 2} emissions by using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies. Major strategic elements of a successful portfolio are energy efficiency, CO{sub 2} capture and storage, renewables and nuclear power. 110 figs., 4 annexes.

Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

2008-01-01

As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

Development of health inter-professional telemedicine practice through simulation scenario training with students of physiotherapy-, occupational therapy-, medical laboratory technology, and nursing education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nortvig, Anne-Mette; Vestergaard, Kitt

. Aims: The purpose of the project was • to develop practice oriented competences related to telemedicine in an inter-professional and a cross-sectoral context among health professional students of physiotherapy-, occupational therapy-, medical laboratory technology-, and nursing education. • to motivate...... and retain male students by the use of simulation training that involves technology. Methodology: The project was settled as a cross-professional telemedicine course on health educations. Nursing students (N=20) and physiotherapy students (N=34) participated actively and the scenarios were filmed and enacted...

Adapting for uncertainty : a scenario analysis of U.S. technology energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laitner, J.A.; Hanson, D.A.; Mintzner, I.; Leonard, J.A.

2006-01-01

The pattern of future evolution for United States (US) energy markets is highly uncertain at this time. This article provided details of a study using a scenario analysis technique to investigate key energy issues affecting decision-making processes in the United States. Four scenarios were used to examine the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape United States energy markets and the economy for the next 50 years: (1) a reference scenario benchmarked to the 2002 annual energy outlook forecast, (2) abundant and inexpensive supplies of oil and gas, (3) a chaotic future beset with international conflict, faltering new technologies, environmental policy difficulties and slowed economic growth, and (4) a technology-driven market in which a variety of forces converge to reshape the energy sector. Each of the scenarios was quantified using a computable general equilibrium model known as the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment (AMIGA) model. Results suggested that the range of different outcomes for the US is broad. However, energy use is expected to increase in all 4 scenarios. It was observed that the introduction of policies to encourage capital stock turnover and accelerate the commercialization of high efficiency, low-emissions technologies may reduce future primary energy demand. The analysis also showed that lower energy prices may lead to higher economic growth. Policies introduced to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the introduction of new technologies did not appreciably reduce the prospects for economic growth. Results also suggested that lower fossil fuel prices discourage investments in energy efficiency or new technologies and may mask the task of responding to future surprises. It was concluded that an investment path that emphasizes both energy efficiency improvements and advanced energy supply technologies will provide economic growth conditions similar to the implementation of lower energy prices. 11 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

Fusion development and technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montgomery, D.B.

1992-01-01

This report discusses the following: superconducting magnet technology; high field superconductors; advanced magnetic system and divertor development; poloidal field coils; gyrotron development; commercial reactor studies--aries; ITER physics: alpha physics and alcator R ampersand D for ITER; lower hybrid current drive and heating in the ITER device; ITER superconducting PF scenario and magnet analysis; ITER systems studies; and safety, environmental and economic factors in fusion development

Knowledge Management in a Competitive Scenario of an Information Technology Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Denise de Cuffa

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This research aimed at proposing a knowledge management plan to increase competitiveness in an information technology company. It used qualitative methodology based on a study case, which analyzed the context of internal and external environments in which Intelitech Company operates. The data collection was divided into three steps: (1 application of a questionnaire to the manager and Intelitech employees, which was composed of knowledge management practices (KMPs, aiming at obtaining previous practices from the company and therefore internal critical variables; (2 application of Rojo’s (2005 scenario simulation model in order to identify external critical variables; and (3 formulation of a proposal for KMPs improvements according to simulated scenarios and the internal and external critical variables previously identified. So, this research resulted in the development of an action plan for two scenarios: (C1 case scenario to expansion of the market, therefore the company could hire new employees and expand its physical structure o, enhance IT tools and ask for manager's flexibility towards a new culture; and (C2 also to observe an unfavorable scenario of restricted market, it would be necessary to build customers loyal order to use IT tools, as well as interact and communicate with them. Thus, it was concluded and confirmed the hypothesis that knowledge management can enhance competitiveness of an IT company.

[Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

An Evaluation of Dismantling Scenarios Using a Computer Simulation Technology for KRR-1 and 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, S.K.; Park, H.S.; Lee, K.W.; Oh, W.Z.; Park, J.H.

2006-01-01

A graphic simulation has been used to design and verify new equipment and has also been expanded to virtual prototyping technology [1∼5]. In the nuclear decommissioning field, this technology has been utilized to validate the design of dismantling processes and to check the interferences and collisions in dismantling scenarios. However, a graphic simulation only provides us with visible result it just provides us with illustrative information of the decommissioning process. A scenario evaluation program has been developed using the computer simulation technology to create an efficient decommissioning plan. In the D and D planning stage, it is important that the scenarios are evaluated from a engineering point of view because the decommissioning work has to be executed economically and safely following the best scenarios. Therefore, we need several modules to evaluate scenarios. We composed the systems like this: 1. Decommissioning DB module for managing the decommissioning activity information (nuclear facility data, worker's data, radioactive inventory date, etc.). Dismantling process evaluation module 3. Visualization module for a radioactive inventory and a dismantling process using 3D CAD and virtual reality technology. 4. Analysis module for the evaluation results of a dismantling process. The evaluation module's capabilities produce a dismantling schedule, quantify radioactive waste, visualize a radioactive inventory, estimate a decommissioning cost, estimate a worker's exposure, and check for interference/collisions. After using the simulation results, the expert ranking system to evaluate scenarios for economics and worker's safety are implemented. The expert ranking system is a powerful and flexible decision making process to help set priorities and make the best decisions when both the qualitative and quantitative aspects of a decision need to be considered. By reducing complex decisions to a series of one-on-one comparisons, then synthesizing the

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Rosenberg

2014-04-01

��political control“, three scenarios were developed up to the time horizons in 2030 and 2050. They are titled „Trend“, „Tradition and Ecology“ and „Technology and Energy“. These scenarios differ markedly in the degree of the future lignite exploitation, in the use of renewable energy and in the environmental compatibility of the agricultural production. In total, the investigation shows that the integration of the ecosystem services approach into the scenario technology has brought new aspects. However, the procedure became more complex. For the development of the scenarios a precise definition of the driving forces turned out to be essential. The experiences of the project further show that only two or at most three key driving forces (KDF can be distinguished really sensibly or can be looked at in their interactions. It could be shown that from these results itself concrete measures can be derived which support desirable developments or counteract against undesirable effects. By the integration of stakeholders in different working steps, the scenarios can contribute to the sensitization and better perception of future problems and chances of a region.

Supporting primary-level mathematics teachers’ collaboration in designing and using technology-based scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

2016-01-01

development and testing through qualitative means, aiming to describe the teachers’ appropriation of (1) GeoGebra as a tool for doing and teaching mathematics, and (2) game as a metaphor supporting open-ended projects addressing creativity and innovation in the classroom. The data from the project suggest......In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers’ adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination...... of GeoGebra and Google sites. Both teachers and pupils work with the concept of “game” as something they design, and furthermore, the pupils immerse themselves into the scenarios that the teachers create in a way similar to “playing a game.” We investigate teachers participation in collaborative...

Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Caille

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary

2009-01-01

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO 2 -eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

Technology development multidimensional review for engineering and technology managers

CERN Document Server

Neshati, Ramin; Watt, Russell; Eastham, James

2014-01-01

Developing new products, services, systems, and processes has become an imperative for any firm expecting to thrive in today’s fast-paced and hyper-competitive environment.  This volume integrates academic and practical insights to present fresh perspectives on new product development and innovation, showcasing lessons learned on the technological frontier.  The first part emphasizes decision making.  The second part focuses on technology evaluation, including cost-benefit analysis, material selection, and scenarios. The third part features in-depth case studies to present innovation management tools, such as customer needs identification, technology standardization, and risk management. The fourth part highlights important international trends, such as globalization and outsourcing. Finally the fifth part explores social and political aspects.

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

2003-01-01

In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

Scenario development and evaluation for the NPP Krsko revised decommissioning program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levanat, I.; Lokner, V.; Subasic, D.

2004-01-01

In this first revision, several integrated scenarios of the NPP Krsko dismantling and waste management were developed and analyzed in order to estimate the decommissioning program (DP) costs and to propose an appropriate funding plan. Most dismantling technologies and cost estimates were derived from the original decommissioning plan adopted in 1996. The LILW disposal cost estimates, however, rely on the tunnel type facility design which was developed in Slovenia a few years ago, whereas the SF repository design for this DP was adapted from the Swedish deep disposal concept. The starting assumptions for this DP were that the LILW repository would be licensed by 2013, the NPP would be permanently shut down in 2023, and the SF repository would become available in 2030. The boundary conditions also specified that DP should first re-evaluate the SID strategy from the original plan (Strategy Immediate Dismantling with immediate SF disposal, but also with a long period of on-site decay storage for the activated components, so that it actually terminates only after 96 years), and then modify it to achieve truly prompt decommissioning in which all planned activities should be completed within about 15 years after the NPP shut-down. In addition, the option of SF export to a third country should be introduced in all DP scenarios, as a realistic alternative to SF disposal into the local repository (in Slovenia or in Croatia). And finally, dry storage of SF for some 30 years before disposal or export, in an independent installation on unspecified location, should be evaluated within the DP sensitivity analysis. After a thorough analysis of the original SID strategy, it became clear that substantial modifications would be necessary in order to meet the boundary conditions while complying with the specified design and technologies of the assumed LILW and SF disposal facilities. Therefore, a systematic procedure for development and financial evaluation of feasible scenarios was

Information seeking stopping behavior in online scenarios the impact of task, technology and individual characteristics

CERN Document Server

Hemmer, Erik

2014-01-01

The growing amount of information provided via web-based information technologies forces the users of these technologies to stop seeking for information before having acquired all available information. This stopping decision is either made actively following clear guidelines or subconsciously based on the seeker's intuition. This book analyzes the aforementioned duality by developing and testing a multi-theoretical research model dealing with information seeking stopping behavior in online scenarios. Thus, by delivering insights into the mechanisms that influence information seeking activitie

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Decommissioning Technology Development for Nuclear Research Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, K. W.; Kang, Y. A.; Kim, G. H.

2007-06-01

It is predicted that the decommissioning of a nuclear power plant would happen in Korea since 2020 but the need of partial decommissioning and decontamination for periodic inspection and life extension still has been on an increasing trend and its domestic market has gradually been extended. Therefore, in this project we developed following several essential technologies as a decommissioning R and D. The measurement technology for in-pipe radioactive contamination was developed for measuring alpha/beta/gamma emitting nuclides simultaneously inside a in-pipe and it was tested into the liquid waste transfer pipe in KRR-2. And the digital mock-up system for KRR-1 and 2 was developed for choosing the best scenarios among several scenarios on the basis of various decommissioning information(schedule, waste volume, cost, etc.) that are from the DMU and the methodology of decommissioning cost estimation was also developed for estimating a research reactor's decommissioning cost and the DMU and the decommissioning cost estimation system were incorporated into the decommissioning information integrated management system. Finally the treatment and management technology of the irradiated graphites that happened after decommissioning KRR-2 was developed in order to treat and manage the irradiated graphites safely

Shell energy scenarios to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

Energy scenarios for the 21. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauerman, V.

2002-01-01

The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

2007-01-01

Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

ACCELERATOR TRANSMUTATION OF WASTE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beller, D.; Tuyle, G. van

2000-01-01

During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Scenarios of technology adoption towards low-carbon cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohareb, Eugene A.; Kennedy, Christopher A.

2014-01-01

Technological change has often been presented as a readily accepted means by which long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions can be achieved. Cities are the future centers of economic growth, with the global population becoming predominantly urban; hence, increases or reductions of GHG emissions are tied to their energy strategies. This research examines the likelihood of a developed world city (the Greater Toronto Area) achieving an 80% reduction in GHG emissions through policy-enabled technological change. Emissions are examined from 3 major sources: light duty passenger vehicles, residential buildings and commercial/institutional buildings. Logistic diffusion curves are applied for the adoption of alternative vehicle technologies, building retrofits and high performance new building construction. This research devises high, low and business-as-usual estimates of future technological adoption and finds that even aggressive scenarios are not sufficient to achieve an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. This further highlights the challenges faced in maintaining a relatively stable climate. Urban policy makers must consider that the longer the lag before this transition occurs, the greater the share of GHG emissions mitigation that must addressed through behavioural change in order to meet the 2050 target, which likely poses greater political challenges. - Highlights: • Explores policy options in a city targeting an 80% GHG emission reduction target by 2050. • Aggressive building code changes will have minimal impact on GHG mitigation. • Support of low-carbon electricity for the majority of generation necessary by 2050. • Internal combustion engine use must be mostly eliminated from the vehicle stock. • Policies supporting elimination of physical exchange space should be promoted

New Technologies and Sustainable Development of Industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muggli, Christoph; Baumgartner, Walter; Werner, Frank

1996-08-01

The present technology assessment study examines the effects of three technology scenarios on future energy consumption and the energy-related emissions by industrial manufacturing in Switzerland. The three paths of development (Trend, High-Tech, Alternative) can be represented as follows: After a reduction until 2015, the Trend development entails a slight increase in consumption of energy. Until then consumption is some 10 percent lower in both the High-Tech and the Alternative Scenarios. Consumption of electricity increases in all scenarios, the proportion is highest in 20 year's time under the High-Tech scenario. SO 2 and CO 2 emissions decrease in all scenarios until 2000 and then level out at a low level. The emissions are lowest in the High-Tech scenario. In contrast the NO x and the VOC emissions diminish until 2000 and then rise again continuously. At this juncture important bases are still not yet available for a definitive evaluation with respect to the sustainable development. Sustainability objectives are currently being compiled for Switzerland in the wake of the Berlin Climate Conference and the Rio Conference. In the political lobbies the Green factions are making demands, such as those currently under discussion internationally (e.g. CO 2 reductions on a scale of some 80 percent by 2050), whereas conservative and industrial circle representatives support the objective of sustainable development but reject a quantification of objectives. The official objectives of the Swiss Energy 2000 programme can be achieved with all scenarios. With the High-Tech and Alternative scenarios, concepts of a reduction in CO 2 by 20 percent by 2015 (as currently under discussion in Switzerland), are realistic. However, further energy-relevant efficiency potentials in industrial production can be activated by energy-policy motivated measures. More extensive objectives, such as e.g. a CO 2 reduction of 50 percent, are hardly attainable, even in the long-term, without

A triangular fuzzy TOPSIS-based approach for the application of water technologies in different emergency water supply scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; Yu, Huan; You, Hong

2016-09-01

Because of the increasing frequency and intensity of unexpected natural disasters, providing safe drinking water for the affected population following a disaster has become a global challenge of growing concern. An onsite water supply technology that is portable, mobile, or modular is a more suitable and sustainable solution for the victims than transporting bottled water. In recent years, various water techniques, such as membrane-assisted technologies, have been proposed and successfully implemented in many places. Given the diversity of techniques available, the current challenge is how to scientifically identify the optimum options for different disaster scenarios. Hence, a fuzzy triangular-based multi-criteria, group decision-making tool was developed in this research. The approach was then applied to the selection of the most appropriate water technologies corresponding to the different emergency water supply scenarios. The results show this tool capable of facilitating scientific analysis in the evaluation and selection of emergency water technologies for enduring security drinking water supply in disaster relief.

Decommissioning Technology Development for Nuclear Research Facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, K. W.; Kang, Y. A.; Kim, G. H. (and others)

2007-06-15

It is predicted that the decommissioning of a nuclear power plant would happen in Korea since 2020 but the need of partial decommissioning and decontamination for periodic inspection and life extension still has been on an increasing trend and its domestic market has gradually been extended. Therefore, in this project we developed following several essential technologies as a decommissioning R and D. The measurement technology for in-pipe radioactive contamination was developed for measuring alpha/beta/gamma emitting nuclides simultaneously inside a in-pipe and it was tested into the liquid waste transfer pipe in KRR-2. And the digital mock-up system for KRR-1 and 2 was developed for choosing the best scenarios among several scenarios on the basis of various decommissioning information(schedule, waste volume, cost, etc.) that are from the DMU and the methodology of decommissioning cost estimation was also developed for estimating a research reactor's decommissioning cost and the DMU and the decommissioning cost estimation system were incorporated into the decommissioning information integrated management system. Finally the treatment and management technology of the irradiated graphites that happened after decommissioning KRR-2 was developed in order to treat and manage the irradiated graphites safely.

Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

2012-01-01

Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pasaoglu, Guzay; Honselaar, Michel; Thiel, Christian

2012-01-01

The continuous rise in demand for road transportation has a significant effect on Europe's oil dependency and emissions of greenhouse gases. Alternative fuels and vehicle technology can mitigate these effects. This study analyses power-train deployment scenarios for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in EU-27 until 2050. It considers European policy developments on vehicle CO 2 emissions, bio-energy mandates and reductions in the CO 2 footprint of the European energy mix and translates these into comprehensive scenarios for the road transport sector. It quantifies and assesses the potential impact of these scenarios on well-to-wheel (WtW) CO 2 emission reductions primary energy demand evolution, and cost aspects for the prospective vehicle owners. The study reveals that, under the deployed scenarios, the use of bio-fuel blends, technological learning and the deployment of hybrids, battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell vehicles can decrease WtW CO 2 emissions in EU-27 passenger road transport by 35–57% (compared to 2010 levels) and primary energy demand by 29–51 Mtoe as they would benefit from a future assumed decarbonised electricity and hydrogen mix in Europe. Learning effects can lead to acceptable payback periods for vehicle owners of electric drive vehicles. - Highlights: ► Power-train penetration scenarios for 2010–2050 passenger road transport in Europe. ► A dedicated tool is developed to analyse H 2 production and distribution mix till 2050. ► Alternative vehicles can drastically reduce CO 2 emissions and energy demand. ► Electric vehicles could become cost competitive to conventional vehicles by 2030. ► Policies needed to create adequate momentum and guarantee decarbonised transport.

Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

2006-01-01

Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

2001-01-01

Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

Scenarios to explore the futures of the emerging technology of organic and large area electronics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Parandian, Alireza; Rip, Arie

2013-01-01

Emerging technologies pose challenges for futures research because of their uncertainties combined with promises. Actors are anticipating and acting strategically. Sociotechnical scenarios building on endogenous futures support and enlighten actors. Such scenarios contribute to “strategic

Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison Rothwell

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

The IIASA'83 scenario of energy development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.

1984-01-01

The prospects for natural gas as a major source of energy supply are good. Spurred by the energy crises of the 'seventies, recent exploration for gas resources as well as technological advances in deep drilling have enhanced the picture of gas as a plentiful fossil resource. Technological improvements in transporting gas over large distances, as piped gas and as a liquid, suggest the strong possibility of gas as an important commodity in energy trade. In addition, gas is a high quality and relatively clean fuel, which is especially attractive in today's world of environmental concern for pollution emissions from energy combustion. Such developments led to the design of the IIASA'83 Scenario of Energy Development, which explored the techno-economic feasibility of the expanded use of gas in energy systems. The work drew on the findings of the IIASA global energy analysis, documented in 'Energy in a Finite World'. All countries of the world were covered in the quantitative analysis, grouped regionally by similarity in energy resources and economic structure and not necessarily on the basis of geographic proximity. The period studied was necessarily the next half century, from 1980 to 2030, in view of the inertia in technological and economic systems and this constraint on the development of energy infrastructures. Global primary energy consumption increases some twofold from 10 TW.a/a to 21.9 TW.a/a over the next 50 years, while economic output globally grows some threefold. The breakdown of global primary energy consumption indicates an absolute increase in the use of all primary energy sources over the study period, with fossil fuels continuing to supply the lion's share of primary energy. The buildup of non-fossil energy sources to global supply levels by 2030 is likely to be constrained by the high capital investments required at a period of modest economic growth and by the sociopolitical controversy surrounding the use of some of these technologies. (author)

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.z [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

2009-11-15

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

Scenarios for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

1995-06-01

This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

2009-10-01

The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Milakis, D.; Snelder, M.; Van Arem, B.; Van Wee, G.P.; Homem De Almeida Rodriguez Correia, G.

2016-01-01

Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, less is known about when automated vehicles will hit the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transportation technology will affect transportation demand and planning. This study identified through scenario analysis

Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

2007-08-20

The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gambhir, Ajay; Schulz, Niels; Napp, Tamaryn; Tong, Danlu; Munuera, Luis; Faist, Mark; Riahi, Keywan

2013-01-01

This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a “hypothetical counterfactual baseline” (HCB) scenario and low carbon (“abatement”) scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important. - Highlights: • Combining energy supply and demand models reveals low-carbon technology choices across China's economy. • China could reduce its CO 2 emissions to close to 3 Gt in 2050, costing around 2% of GDP. • Decarbonising the power sector underpins the energy system transformation. • Electrification of industrial processes, building heating and transport is required. • Energy efficiency across the demand side is also important

The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barron, Robert; McJeon, Haewon

2015-01-01

This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO 2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO 2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO 2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

Scenarios for Development of Scientific and Innovative Potential of Ukraine under Conditions of a New Industrial Revolution and Association with the EU

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matyushenko Igor Yu.

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The article presents the results of the scenario simulation of scientific and innovative development of Ukraine to determine the appropriate method of its management under conditions of a new industrial revolution and association with the EU. It is shown that the best scenario that in the long run provides a significant improvement in the results of scientific and technological development is a scenario of increasing the level of R&D expenditures to the EU target figure amounting to 4% of GDP. But this scenario is unlikely. It is found that the optimal level of expenditures can be considered as 2.5% of GDP, which can be achieved in the medium term; in this case raising the level of expenditures to 1.7-2% of GDP gives certain results but does not produce sufficient resources for a long-term development. It is proved that in order to achieve significant results in scientific and technological development, the increase in expenditures on R&D should be accompanied by forming clusters, increasing the level of protection of investors, providing development of high-tech industries and employment in this sphere, as well as facilitating the access to ICTs. It is found that a prerequisite for an effective scientific and technological development is stimulation of the population interest in obtaining high-quality professional education, including through the promotion by employers.

Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Jacinto

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2 adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1 characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2 identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3 identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4 production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes. The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16% in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%. All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

A group decision-making tool for the application of membrane technologies in different water reuse scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadr, S M K; Saroj, D P; Kouchaki, S; Ilemobade, A A; Ouki, S K

2015-06-01

A global challenge of increasing concern is diminishing fresh water resources. A growing practice in many communities to supplement diminishing fresh water availability has been the reuse of water. Novel methods of treating polluted waters, such as membrane assisted technologies, have recently been developed and successfully implemented in many places. Given the diversity of membrane assisted technologies available, the current challenge is how to select a reliable alternative among numerous technologies for appropriate water reuse. In this research, a fuzzy logic based multi-criteria, group decision making tool has been developed. This tool has been employed in the selection of appropriate membrane treatment technologies for several non-potable and potable reuse scenarios. Robust criteria, covering technical, environmental, economic and socio-cultural aspects, were selected, while 10 different membrane assisted technologies were assessed in the tool. The results show this approach capable of facilitating systematic and rigorous analysis in the comparison and selection of membrane assisted technologies for advanced wastewater treatment and reuse. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flynn, W.T.

1986-12-01

This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

Science.gov (United States)

Musulin, Mike, II

The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes

Technology learning for renewable energy. Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

2009-11-15

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. (author)

Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future: Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Clean-Energy Technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None, None

2000-12-18

This study estimates the potential for public policies and R and D programs to foster clean energy technology solutions to the energy and environmental challenges facing the nation. These challenges include global climate change, air pollution, oil dependence, and inefficiencies in the production and use of energy. The study uses a scenario-based approach to examine alternative portfolios of public policies and technologies. Although the report makes no policy recommendations, it does present policies that could lead to impressive advances in the development and deployment of clean energy technologies without significant net economic impacts. Appendices are available electronically at: www.nrel.gov/docs/fy01osti/29379appendices.pdf (6.4 MB).

The joint SKI/SKB scenario development project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Johan

1989-12-01

The Swedish Nuclear Power and Swedish Nuclear Waste Management Co. have carried through a joint scenario development exercise of a hypothetical repository for spent fuel and high level waste based on the KBS-3 concept as disposal method. The starting point has been the 'Sandia methodology', but the actual implementation of the steps in this method has required new strategy development. The work started with a relatively large internationally composed group meeting, which identified an extensive list of features, events and processes (FEPs) that might influence the long term performance of a repository. All these FEPs as well as its possible causes and consequences have been entered into a computer database. The next step in the development was to remove from the list approximately 30 FEPs of low probability or negligible consequence. In a following step a large number of the FEPs on the original list were assigned to the 'PROCESS SYSTEM', comprising the complete set of 'deterministic' chemical and physical processes that might influence the release from the repository to the biosphere. A scenario is defined by a set of external conditions which will influence the processes in the PROCESS SYSTEM. Approximately 50 FEPs were left representing external conditions. The remaining FEPs could all be combined to form scenarios, but it is concluded that it is not meaningful to discuss combinations without first analysing the consequence and probability of the individual conditions. An important aspect of the work is that the developed strategy includes a framework for the documentation of the complete chain of scenario development. Such a transparent documentation makes possible an extensive review and updating of the set of scenarios. A reviewing process, open to very broad groups in the society, is probably the best means of assuring reasonable completeness and of building up a general consensus on what are the critical issues for the safe disposal of radioactive waste

Development formalization of the e-learning pedagogical scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олександр Іванович Пушкар

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The place of the pedagogical scenario in development of the e-learning support system has been defined. The process of student's interaction with the system of e-learning in the form of a proper dialogue has been proposed. Peculiarities of constructing typical models of scenarios of academic disciplines have been analyzed. A technique for quantitative assessment of the relationships between the objects of study in the model of a pedagogical scenario has been offered

Techno-economic viability assessments of greener propulsion technology under potential environmental regulatory policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nalianda, D.K.; Kyprianidis, K.G.; Sethi, V.; Singh, R.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • An advanced method is presented for techno-economic assessment under potential environmental regulatory policy scenarios. • The viability of the contra-rotating open rotor concept is investigated under various environmental policies. • CO_2 taxation is needed to drive the aerospace industry towards greener solutions. - Abstract: Sustainability of the aviation industry, as any other industry, depends on the elasticity of demand for the product and profitability through minimising operating costs. Of paramount importance is assessing and understanding the interdependency and effects of environmentally optimised solutions and emission mitigation policies. This paper describes the development and application of assessment methodologies to better understand the effects of environmental taxation/energy policies aimed at environmental pollution reduction and the future potential economic impact they may have on the adaptation of “greener” novel technologies. These studies are undertaken using a Techno-economic Environmental Risk Assessment approach. The methodology demonstrated allows the assessment of the economic viability of new technologies compared to conventional technologies, for various CO_2 emission taxation and fuel price scenarios. It considers relative increases in acquisition price and maintenance costs. A study undertaken as a ‘proof of concept’ compares a Counter Rotating Open Rotor aircraft with a conventional aircraft for short range operations. It indicates that at current fuel price and with no carbon taxation, a highly fuel efficient technology, such as the one considered, could be rendered economically unviable. The work goes on to demonstrate that in comparison to the conventional aircraft, any economic benefits that may be accrued from improvement in fuel consumption through such a technology, may well be negated through increases in acquisition price and maintenance costs. The work further demonstrates that if policy

Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-10-15

As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

The role of accelerated power generation technology development to carbon dioxide emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russ, P.

2004-01-01

The paper focuses on the role of advanced power generation technology in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. In order to quantify the importance of these technologies a scenario approach is applied comparing a 'business as usual' scenario with technology cases which assume the accelerated development and earlier availability of certain advanced technologies. The simulations with the POLES world energy model demonstrate that the availability of advanced technology for power generation alone does not lead to emission reductions needed to stabilise carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere at a sustainable level. To achieve that additional policy measures are necessary. It is however shown, that the availability of advanced technology has a crucial impact on the cost to meet emission reduction targets. (Author)

Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

1995-06-01

This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

2015-05-01

This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-01-01

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

Scenario Development Workshop Synopsis. Integration Group for the Safety Case - June 2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Paul; Voinis, Sylvie; Griffault, Lise; De Meredieu, Jean; Kwong, Gloria; ); Van Luik, Abraham; Bailey, Lucy; Capouet, Manuel; Depaus, Christophe; Makino, Hitoshi; Leigh, Christi; Kirkes, Ross; Leino, Jaakko; Niemeyer, Matthias; Wolf, Jens; Watson, Sarah; Franke, Bettina; Ilett, Doug; Pastina, Barbara; Weetjens, Eef

2016-03-01

Scenario development and selection describes the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information relevant to the potential paths of evolution of a radioactive waste disposal facility (repository) that is necessary to assess its long-term performance and safety. In 1999, the NEA held its first workshop on scenario development in Madrid, Spain, with the objective to review the methods for developing scenarios in safety assessments and their application. Since then, the process of scenario development and analysis for the disposal of radioactive waste has changed and, in 2015, the NEA Integration Group for the Safety Case (IGSC) held a second workshop on this topic at its offices in Paris to further evaluate the experience acquired in developing scenarios since 1999. To prepare for this workshop, the IGSC also launched a survey in 2014 to gather the latest scenario development and uncertainty management strategies used in IGSC member countries. The purposes of the workshop were to (i) provide a forum to review and discuss methods for scenario development and their contribution to the development of recent safety cases (since the 1999 workshop); (ii) examine the latest methods and compare their scope, consistency and function within the overall safety assessment process, based on practical experience of applications; and (iii) provide a basis for producing the present report summarising the current status of scenario methodologies, identifying where sufficient methods exist and any outstanding problem areas. This report provides an overview of the state of the art in scenario development related to the long-term safety of geological repositories for radioactive waste. In particular, it discusses how potential scenarios are developed in safety assessments of radioactive waste that contains long-lived radionuclides. Safety assessment is the process of quantitatively and qualitatively evaluating the safety of a repository, often in support of a

Subsea innovative boosting technologies on deep water scenarios -- Impacts and demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caetano, E.F.; Mendonca, J.E.; Pagot, P.R.; Cotrim, M.L.; Camargo, R.M.T.; Assayag, M.I.

1995-01-01

This paper presents the importance of deep water scenario for Brazil, the PETROBRAS Deep and Ultra-Deep Water R and D Program (PROCAP-2000) and the candidate fields for the deployment of subsea innovative boosting technologies (ESPS -- electrical submersible pump in subsea wells, SSS -- subsea separation systems and SBMS -- subsea multiphase flow pumping system) as well as the problems associated with the flow assurance in such conditions. The impact of those innovative systems, their technological stage and remaining demands to make them available for deployment in offshore subsea areas, mainly in giant deepwater fields, are discussed and predicted

Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

2002-01-01

Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

Involving users in the development of embedded technology in construction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Storgaard, Kresten; Buch-Hansen, Thomas Cornelius; Ærenlund, Lærke

2011-01-01

Based on a project about user driven innovation and embedded technology in construction (BIIB), the paper discusses methodological issues on user involvement. In the paper especially focus is on the experiences on involving users in collaborative development of scenarios, in the validation...... of scenarios and in developing innovative solutions on a conceptual level. The project discusses 1) concepts of users and 2) methods for collaborative involvement. The first discussion involves presentation of an extended user concept and a discussion of differences between lead users and need-advanced users....... The second discussion on collaborative involvement, discuss experiences with methods for communication across cultural and professional competences with reference to boundary objects, tangible systems and visualization. In the project four segments of situations for use of embedded technology in construction...

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALGORITHM FOR CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL SCENARIO FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION'S ECONOMY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. S. Borisova

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: the article deals with the development of an algorithm for choosing the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy. Since the "Strategy for socio-economic development of the Lipetsk region for the period until 2020" does not contain scenarios for the development of the region, the algorithm for choosing the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy is formalized. The scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region according to the indicators of the Program of social and economic development are calculated: "Quality of life index", "Average monthly nominal wage", "Level of registered unemployment", "Growth rate of gross regional product", "The share of innovative products in the total volume of goods shipped, works performed and services rendered by industrial organizations", "Total volume of atmospheric pollution per unit GRP" and "Satisfaction of the population with the activity of executive bodies of state power of the region". Based on the calculation of development scenarios, the dynamics of the values of these indicators was developed in the implementation of scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region in 2016–2020. Discounted financial costs of economic participants for realization of scenarios of development of economy of the Lipetsk region are estimated. It is shown that the current situation in the economy of the Russian Federation assumes the choice of a paradigm for the innovative development of territories and requires all participants in economic relations at the regional level to concentrate their resources on the creation of new science-intensive products. An assessment of the effects of the implementation of reasonable scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region was carried out. It is shown that the most acceptable is the "base" scenario, which assumes a consistent change in the main indicators. The specific economic

Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

2017-12-01

There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

Project Icarus: Stakeholder Scenarios for an Interstellar Exploration Program

Science.gov (United States)

Hein, A. M.; Tziolas, A. C.; Osborne, R.

The Project Icarus Study Group's objective is to design a mainly fusion-propelled interstellar probe. The starting point are the results of the Daedalus study, which was conducted by the British Interplanetary Society during the 1970's. As the Daedalus study already indicated, interstellar probes will be the result of a large scale, decade-long development program. To sustain a program over such long periods, the commitment of key stakeholders is vital. Although previous publications identified political and societal preconditions to an interstellar exploration program, there is a lack of more specific scientific and political stakeholder scenarios. This paper develops stakeholder scenarios which allow for a more detailed sustainability assessment of future programs. For this purpose, key stakeholder groups and their needs are identified and scientific and political scenarios derived. Political scenarios are based on patterns of past space programs but unprecedented scenarios are considered as well. Although it is very difficult to sustain an interstellar exploration program, there are scenarios in which this seems to be possible, e.g. the discovery of life within the solar system and on an exoplanet, a global technology development program, and dual-use of technologies for defence and security purposes. This is a submission of the Project Icarus Study Group.

Decontamination Technology Development for Nuclear Research Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Won Zin; Jung, Chong Hun; Choi, Wang Kyu; Won, Hui Jun; Kim, Gye Nam

2004-02-01

Technology development of surface decontamination in the uranium conversion facility before decommissioning, technology development of component decontamination in the uranium conversion facility after decommissioning, uranium sludge treatment technology development, radioactive waste soil decontamination technology development at the aim of the temporary storage soil of KAERI, Optimum fixation methodology derivation on the soil and uranium waste, and safety assessment methodology development of self disposal of the soil and uranium waste after decontamination have been performed in this study. The unique decontamination technology applicable to the component of the nuclear facility at room temperature was developed. Low concentration chemical decontamination technology which is very powerful so as to decrease the radioactivity of specimen surface under the self disposal level was developed. The component decontamination technology applicable to the nuclear facility after decommissioning by neutral salt electro-polishing was also developed. The volume of the sludge waste could be decreased over 80% by the sludge waste separation method by water. The electrosorption method on selective removal of U(VI) to 1 ppm of unrestricted release level using the uranium-containing lagoon sludge waste was tested and identified. Soil decontamination process and equipment which can reduce the soil volume over 90% were developed. A pilot size of soil decontamination equipment which will be used to development of real scale soil decontamination equipment was designed, fabricated and demonstrated. Optimized fixation methodology on soil and uranium sludge was derived from tests and evaluation of the results. Safety scenario and safety evaluation model were development on soil and uranium sludge aiming at self disposal after decontamination

Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

2008-11-01

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Energy Efficiency Road Mapping in Three Future Scenarios for Lao PDR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hajime Sasaki

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Climate change, pollution, and energy insecurity are among the greatest problems of our time. These problems are no longer issues in particular countries but international issues. Several framework conventions on these issues are now in place throughout the world, and developing countries are no exception. Energy efficiency is one of the important issues for developing countries. Lao PDR is one such country. This paper proposes a technology roadmap and policy recommendations for Lao PDR with consideration given to a wide range of economic and social impacts of prospective technologies. For the implementation of technology assessment in the formulation of an energy efficiency roadmap, we first elaborate the social and economic conditions of Lao PDR through preliminary research and field research, and then design three scenarios for a future Lao PDR. These three scenarios are as follows: 1. The "Poverty Reduction" scenario is for electrification rate improvement; 2. The "Industrial Creation" scenario is for stable domestic energy supply; and 3. The "GMS Integration" scenario is for the acquisition of foreign exchange by energy export.

Definition of Storage Complex for the Technological Development Plant and the Evaluation Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Recreo, F.; Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.

2015-01-01

This report intends a geological description of the site for the Technological Development Plant that CIUDEN is conducting in Hontomín (Burgos) for the improvement, both technological and economic, of the key aspects of geological storage of CO2 in deep permeable formations. Safety studies of this site began in 2008 with a preliminary appraisal of several pre-selected areas in the western part of the so-called "Cantabrian Basin". However, the modelling of the processes acting in the permanent sequestration of CO2 requires a much more detailed knowledge of the geological formations that form the complex storage and of its lithologic, petrophysical, hydrogeological, geochemical and geomechanical characteristics. This report presents a summary of the geological and hydrogeological information available from the documentation provided by the Geological Survey of Spain (IGME) and the published studies conducted in the area for oil research campaigns between 1965-68 and 1991–96. This information has allowed to deriving a preliminary conceptualization of what would be the system model of the geological system where the Technological Development Plant will be installed as well as identifying the remaining uncertainties.

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

2014-01-01

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.

Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anniken Enger

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

Electric Vehicles Scenarios and a Roadmap for India

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal

This report is an attempt to look at the present EV landscape, recent developments in EV markets and the emergent EV technology research. The report analyses future scenarios of passenger transport in India with a specific focus on the role of EVs. The scenarios span from 2010 to 2035 and are ana...

GHG emission scenarios in Asia and the world: The key technologies for significant reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akashi, Osamu; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Kainuma, Mikiko

2012-01-01

In this paper, we explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world as part of the Asian Modeling Exercise and assess technology options for meeting a 2.6 W/m 2 radiative forcing target using AIM/Enduse[Global] and AIM/Impact[Policy]. Global GHG emissions in 2050 are required to be reduced by 72% relative to a reference scenario, which corresponds to a 57% reduction from the 2005 level, in order to meet the above target. Energy intensity improvement contributes a lot to curbing CO 2 emission in the short-term. Meanwhile, carbon intensity reduction and CO 2 capture play a large role for further emission reduction in the mid to long-term. The top five key technologies in terms of reduction amount are CCS, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation and biofuel, which, in total, account for about 60% of global GHG emissions reduction in 2050. We implement additional model runs, each of which enforced limited availability of one of the key technology. The result shows that the 2.6 W/m 2 target up to 2050 is achievable even if availability of any one of the key technologies is limited to half the level achieved in the default simulation. However, if the use of CCS or biomass is limited, the cumulative GHG abatement cost until 2050 increases considerably. Therefore CCS and biomass have a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions. - Highlights: ► We explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world. ► Significant GHG emission reduction is required to limit radiative forcing at low level. ► We assess technology options for achieving significant GHG emission reduction. ► CCS, solar power, wind power, and biomass are the key technologies for reduction. ► Especially, CCS and biomass play a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions.

Interactions of energy technology development and new energy exploitation with water technology development in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liang, Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu

2011-01-01

Interactions of energy policies with water technology development in China are investigated using a hybrid input-output model and scenario analysis. The implementation of energy policies and water technology development can produce co-benefits for each other. Water saving potential of energy technology development is much larger than that of new energy exploitation. From the viewpoint of proportions of water saving co-benefits of energy policies, energy sectors benefit the most. From the viewpoint of proportions of energy saving and CO 2 mitigation co-benefits of water technology development, water sector benefits the most. Moreover, economic sectors are classified into four categories concerning co-benefits on water saving, energy saving and CO 2 mitigation. Sectors in categories 1 and 2 have big direct co-benefits. Thus, they can take additional responsibility for water and energy saving and CO 2 mitigation. If China implements life cycle materials management, sectors in category 3 can also take additional responsibility for water and energy saving and CO 2 mitigation. Sectors in category 4 have few co-benefits from both direct and accumulative perspectives. Thus, putting additional responsibility on sectors in category 4 might produce pressure for their economic development. -- Highlights: ► Energy policies and water technology development can produce co-benefits for each other. ► For proportions of water saving co-benefits of energy policies, energy sectors benefit the most. ► For proportions of energy saving and CO 2 mitigation co-benefits of water policy, water sector benefits the most. ► China’s economic sectors are classified into four categories for policy implementation at sector scale.

Introduction of developing a list of MSO generic scenarios for PHWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jae Wan; Park, Jun Hyun; Bae, Hui Soo [STANDARD Testing and Engineering Ing. Ltd, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Multiple Spurious Operation(MSO) scenarios should contain scenarios threatening Post-fire safe shutdown function by MSO of Safe Shutdown Equipments(SSEs) as well as Non-SSEs. The list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) was developed by industrial survey. Although not all scenarios of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) are considered applicable to every reactor type, this list provides an input about MSO identification and treatment process. If NEI 00-01 is applied to other reactor type, analyst should review applicability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) and consider potential MSO scenarios undescribed in the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). Especially, in PHWR case, there is no list of MSO generic scenarios in Canada or internationally. There are substantial physical variations between NPPs. So some generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) would need validation. Nevertheless, industrial stakeholder have not did any MSO work until now. In this paper, results of first stage research that develop the list of MSO generic scenarios for pressurized heavy water reactor(PHWR) is introduced. According to the review results, specific review of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) is required such as how it applies to PHWR. And criteria was established for review of availability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). However there are still many tasks such as potential scenario review, risk model review and expert panel review.

A 'must-go path' scenario for sustainable development and the role of nuclear energy in the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Hae-Yong; Kim, Young-In; Lee, Yong-Bum; Ha, Kwi-Seok; Won, Byung-Chool; Lee, Dong-Uk; Hahn, Dohee

2010-01-01

An increase in the world population has accelerated the consumption of fossil fuels and deepened the pollution of global environment. As a result of these human activities, it is now difficult to clearly guarantee the sustainable future of humankind. An intuitional 'must-go path' scenario for the sustainable development of human civilization is proposed by extrapolating the human historical data over 30 years between 1970 and 2000. One of the most important parameters in order to realize the 'must-go path' scenario is the sustainability of energy without further pollution. In some countries an expanded use of nuclear energy is advantageous to increase sustainability, but fast reactor technology and closed fuel cycle have to be introduced to make it sustainable. In other countries, the development of cost-effective renewable energy, and the clean use of coal and oil are urgently needed to reduce pollution. The effect of fast nuclear reactor technology on sustainability as an option for near-term energy source is detailed in this paper. More cooperation between countries and worldwide collaboration coordinated by international organizations are essential to make the 'must-go path' scenario real in the upcoming 20 or 30 years.

The importance of scenario development in meeting 40 CFR part 191

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, R.L.

1988-01-01

Scenario development and screening is a fundamental part of performance assessment, but its importance in satisfying 40 CFR Part 191 (the standard) is sometimes underestimated. The first step in scenario development in support of performance assessment for the standard's containment requirements is to identify a set of potentially disruptive events and processes. This set must be broad enough to allow the identification, as required by the standard, of those processes and events that might affect the disposal system; data can then be collected on the scenarios identified in this step. The standard also requires that releases be estimated for all significant processes and events; thus the final step in scenario development is systematically screening the scenarios, on the basis of their probabilities and consequences, to select those that are important enough to be modeled in detail. In general, a few hundred scenarios for the release of radionuclides from a nuclear-waste repository can be identified, but only a few of these can or should be modeled in detail

Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzelli, Claudia; Vandecasteele, Ine; Ribeiro Barranco, Ricardo; Mari i Rivero, Ines; Pelletier, Nathan; Batelaan, Okke; Lavalle, Carlo

2015-01-01

Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015–2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact. -- Highlights: •A range of scenarios for shale gas development in Poland were modelled. •The impact in terms of land take and competition for land was assessed. •Of land used for industrial purposes, 7–12% was attributed to shale gas extraction. •If unregulated, 24% of well pads were developed within protected areas. •The legislative framework can have a major influence on overall environmental impact

Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

2011-01-01

The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Scenario development methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

1994-11-01

In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Ertug Ercin

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1997-12-31

One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

The prosa methodology for scenario development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grupa, J.B.

2001-01-01

In this paper a methodology for scenario development is proposed. The method is developed in an effort to convince ourselves (and others) that all conceivable future developments of a waste repository have been covered. To be able to assess all conceivable future developments, the method needs to be comprehensive. To convince us and others the method should be structured in such a way that the treatment of each conceivable future development is traceable. The methodology is currently being applied to two Dutch disposal designs. Preliminary results show that the elaborated method functions better than the original method. However, some elements in the method will need further refinement. (author)

Development of Optimal Stressor Scenarios for New Operational Energy Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

OPTIMAL STRESSOR SCENARIOS FOR NEW OPERATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEMS by Geoffrey E. Fastabend December 2017 Thesis Advisor: Alejandro S... ENERGY SYSTEMS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Geoffrey E. Fastabend 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School...developed and tested simulation model for operational energy related systems in order to develop better stressor scenarios for acceptance testing

Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, Lauro J.; Lambert, James H.; Karvetski, Christopher W.

2011-01-01

Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

Integrated scenarios of regional development in Ceará and Piauí

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.; Fuhr, Dagmar; Gaiser, T.; Krol, M.S; Frischkorn, H.; de Araújo, J.C.

2003-01-01

Scenarios of the future are an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative-quantitative scenarios which show potential developments of

Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrattenholzer, L.

2005-01-01

The Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) develops policy-relevant global and world-regional energy perspectives. The basic premise of the ECS's research program is a global trend of d ecarbonization . Firstly, decarbonization includes a trend toward ever-greater efficiency, or ever less waste, in society's use of energy resources. Secondly, it includes a trend towards less carbon-intensive fossil fuels (e.g., from coal toward natural gas) and, further, to non-fossil fuels, especially renewable energy carriers. Technological change is generally regarded as one of the key drivers of sustained economic growth. Long-term energy scenarios developed at IIASA and elsewhere show that, depending on key assumptions on drivers such as population, economic growth and technological development, global energy development can be environmentally unsustainable. First, energy development might not lead to stabilizing greenhouse concentrations and might thus have significant negative impacts on the global climate. In addition, some, especially coal-intensive, scenarios might lead to levels of acid deposition at which significant damage to sensitive ecosystems is expected to occur in Europe and, even more so, in Asia. A continuation of the observed historical long-term trends of decarbonization, dematerialization, and energy efficiency improvements might therefore not be sufficient to achieve sustainable growth. Targeted technological development aiming at accelerating decarbonization, dematerialization, and/or efficiency improvement may be one of the most effective means for reconciling economic growth with global environmental objectives. This might require a step-up in investments in R and D and in the demonstration of technologies so as to stimulate both learning-by-searching and learning-by-doing. In this presentation, global E3 scenarios will be summarized in the following three groups: Non

Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, K; Joergensen, Kaj [Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK); Werling, J; OErsted Pedersen, H; Kofoed-Wiuff, A [Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK)

2008-02-15

The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas emissions

Detailed Modelling of the Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios with Demand Response Technologies in the Heating and Cooling Sector: A Case Study for Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Calise

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Energy policies accompanying the transition towards a sustainable development process must be supported by technical analyses in which future energy scenarios are modeled and evaluated. This paper analyzes possible decarbonization scenarios in Italy for the year 2050. They envisage high electrification of transports and residential buildings, high use of renewable energies, and a modal shift towards public transport. The energy scenarios are evaluated using a software program, EnergyPLAN, starting from a reference model developed for the year 2014. Special attention has been given to the modeling of data that are unavailable in the literature, such as the time profile of heating and cooling demands, obtained with the degree-days method and validated by elaborating the results of the modeling of the residential building stock, this latter was dynamically simulated in TRNSYS. The results show that to obtain a significant decrease of greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption, it is necessary not only to promote a deeper penetration of renewable sources, but also their integration with other technologies (cogeneration, trigeneration, power-to-heat systems, thermal storage, vehicle-to-grid operations. In fact, renewables technologies alone can raise some critical issues, such as excess and/or shortage of electricity production and non-sustainable exploitation of biomass.

Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

2018-04-29

This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

OpenAIRE

Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

2009-01-01

Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as challenging and useful, but also highlighted problems of distributed communication. The findings were used to improve the training as well as current use of the technology in the organisation. Research ...

Biosphere scenario development. An interim report of an SKI, SSI, SKB working group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-11-01

The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co have initiated a project for the development of scenarios for the behaviour of radionuclides in high level waste following deep geological disposal. The main objective is to develop a general consensus of scenarios and conceptual models. Within the project a biosphere scenarios working group was initiated to consider specific questions of the biosphere. This report describes the results of the group's deliberations up to the end of July 1989. A methodology is presented for the development of biosphere scenarios which may be considered alongside scenarios for radionuclide behaviour in the near field and geosphere. Two major biosphere elements affecting processes in the surface environment have been recognised, climate and development. Alternative states for climate and level of development are suggested and each combination can be considered with one or more of a range of biosphere receptors, such as a river or a lake. The features, events and processes relevant to each receptor are presented. Consideration is then given to biosphere assumptions for both gradual and direct releases from the geosphere, as well as biosphere effects on the repository near field or geosphere. The amount of screening which can be done at this stage to limit the number of biosphere scenarios is small. However, considerable potential exists once more details are available for geosphere release scenarios. It may be appropriate to further develop biosphere scenarios, specific to each geosphere release scenario. It may also be appropriate to consider scenarios specifically in relation to the individual radionuclides which dominate geosphere releases. Both these possibilities could result in considerably reduced requirements for calculations

Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

2012-11-15

With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

2010-03-01

Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

1998-01-01

Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

Definition of technology development missions for early space station satellite servicing, volume 2

Science.gov (United States)

1983-01-01

The results of all aspects of the early space station satellite servicing study tasks are presented. These results include identification of servicing tasks (and locations), identification of servicing mission system and detailed objectives, functional/operational requirements analyses of multiple servicing scenarios, assessment of critical servicing technology capabilities and development of an evolutionary capability plan, design and validation of selected servicing technology development missions (TDMs), identification of space station satellite servicing accommodation needs, and the cost and schedule implications of acquiring both required technology capability development and conducting the selected TDMs.

Systematic approach to scenario development using FEP analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bailey, L.E.E.; Lever, D.A.

2001-01-01

UK regulatory requirements require that the 'assessed radiological risk ... to a representative member of the potentially exposed group at greatest risk should be consistent with a risk target of 10 -6 per year' and that risks should be 'summed over all situations that could give rise to exposure to the group'. It is a further requirement that a repository performance assessment provides a 'comprehensive record of the judgements and assumptions on which the risk assessments are based'. In order to meet these requirements, Nirex, working with AEA Technology, has developed an approach to performance assessment based on the identification and analysis of features, events and processes (FEPs). The objectives of the approach are to provide a comprehensive, traceable and clear presentation of a performance assessment for a deep geological radioactive waste repository. The approach to scenario development is fundamental to the overall Nirex strategy for performance assessment, eventually leading to a repository safety case for regulatory submission. This paper outlines the main concepts of the approach, illustrated with examples of work undertaken by Nirex to demonstrate its practicality. Due to the current status of the Nirex repository programme, the approach has not yet been used to conduct a full performance assessment of a repository located at a specific site. (authors)

Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steenhof, Paul A.; Hill, Malcolm R.

2006-01-01

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period. (Author)

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

2015-01-01

Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, Nick; Strachan, Neil

2010-01-01

Scenarios have a long history in business, politics and military planning, as a tool for strategic planning to inform protective, proactive or consensus-based decision making in the face of uncertain futures. Recent years have seen a growth in scenarios for assessing the implications of low carbon futures, but relatively little work has linked these energy scenarios to the broader literature on scenario development. This paper undertakes a methodological review of a selection of UK and international low carbon scenario studies, using a typology of 'trend based', 'technical feasibility' and 'modelling' studies. Dominant methodologies in such studies have been the 2x2 axis and the 'back-casting' approach. Strengths of the studies reviewed include technological detail, and identification of key economic and social constraints. Weaknesses include the over-reliance on constructs such as exogenous emissions constraints, and high level trends, which diminish the ability to understand how the various future scenarios could be brought about or avoided. This is compounded by the lack of depiction of specific system actors; the tendency to abstract policy from the scenarios; and the resulting failure to consider policy, technology and behaviour in an iterative, 'co-evolving' fashion.

The development of English primary care group governance. A scenario analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheaff, R

1999-01-01

At present there is a policy vacuum about what English Primary Care Groups' (PCGs) governance will be when they develop into Primary Care Trusts (PCTs). Draft legislation leaves many options open, so PCT governance is likely to 'emerge' as PCTs are created. It also remains uncertain how general practitioners (GPs) will react to the formation of PCTs and how the UK government will then respond in turn. A scenario analysis suggests three possible lines of development. The base (likeliest) scenario predicts a mainly networked form of PCT governance. An alternative scenario is of PCT governance resembling the former National Health Service internal market. A third scenario predicts 'franchise model' PCTs employing some GPs and subcontracting others. To different degrees all three scenarios predict that PCTs will retain elements of networked governance. If it fails to make GPs as accountable to NHS management as the UK government wishes, networked governance may prove only a transitional stage before English PCTs adopt either quasi-market or hierarchical governance.

Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmid, Eva; Knopf, Brigitte

2012-01-01

This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO 2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO 2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context. - Highlights: ► Preferences of German civil society stakeholders are elicited in dialogues. ► Three scenarios represent likely, desirable and controversial key developments. ► A carbon lock-in from freight transport and coal electrification is deemed likely. ► Stakeholders advocate major paradigm shifts for resolving the carbon lock-in. ► Institutional and societal factors are decisive for achieving ambitious mitigation.

Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-11-15

In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

Scenario comparisons of gasification technology using energy life cycle assessment for bioenergy recovery from rice straw in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shie, J.L.; Lee, C.H.; Chen, C.S.; Lin, K.L.; Chang, C.Y.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The energy balances of potential gasification technology and limitation boundary are evaluated. • The transportation and pre-treatment are the greatest parts of energy use. • Every technology process has positive energy benefits at all on-site pre-treatment cases. • The optimal ranges of transportation distance and treatment capacity are suggested. • The optimal technology from the tendency model is addressed. - Abstract: This study uses different scenarios to evaluate, by means of energy life-cycle assessments (ELCAs), the energy balance of potential gasification technology and limitation boundaries in Taiwan. Rice straw is chosen as the target material in this study because it is the most significant agriculture waste in Taiwan. Energy products include syngas (CO + H 2 ), methane, carbon dioxide and carbon black residue. The scenarios simulate capacities of 50,000–200,000 tons/year. The distances of collection and transportation are calculated by a circular area 50–100 km in diameter. Also, the on-site and off-site pretreatments of rice straw are evaluated. For this optimum scenario case, the average of the total input energy for the assessed systems is about 15.9% of the average output energy; the value of the net energy balance (NEB) is 0.841. Every technological process has positive energy benefits at all on-site scenario cases. As the capacity is increased, the energy consumption required for transportation increases and the values of the energy indicators decrease. According to the limitation boundaries from the tendency model at on-site cases, the suggested transportation distance and treatment capacity are below 114.72 km and 251,533 tons/year, respectively, while the energy return on investment (EROI) value is greater than 1

Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2012-01-01

Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

Development of predictive weather scenarios for early prediction of rice yield in South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Y.; Cho, J.; Jung, I.

2017-12-01

International grain prices are becoming unstable due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather phenomena caused by climate change. Early prediction of grain yield using weather forecast data is important for stabilization of international grain prices. The APEC Climate Center (APCC) is providing seasonal forecast data based on monthly climate prediction models for global seasonal forecasting services. The 3-month and 6-month seasonal forecast data using the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique are provided in their own website, ADSS (APCC Data Service System, http://adss.apcc21.org/). The spatial resolution of seasonal forecast data for each individual model is 2.5°×2.5°(about 250km) and the time scale is created as monthly. In this study, we developed customized weather forecast scenarios that are combined seasonal forecast data and observational data apply to early rice yield prediction model. Statistical downscale method was applied to produce meteorological input data of crop model because field scale crop model (ORYZA2000) requires daily weather data. In order to determine whether the forecasting data is suitable for the crop model, we produced spatio-temporal downscaled weather scenarios and evaluated the predictability by comparison with observed weather data at 57 ASOS stations in South Korea. The customized weather forecast scenarios can be applied to various application fields not only early rice yield prediction. Acknowledgement This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development (Project No: PJ012855022017)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

2008-02-15

The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

Science.gov (United States)

Coelho, Maysa Joppert

The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input

Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuzhyk Kateryna

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

1994-01-01

The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

Fiscal 2000 report of investigation. Research on effective use of technology for biomass waste and diffusion scenario of the technology; 2000 nendo biomass kei haikibutsu no yuko riyo gijutsu to sono fukyu scenario no chosa hokokusho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-03-01

Examination and proposal were made on the effective uses of technologies for biomass wastes and on the diffusion scenarios, with trial calculations done to find the maximum reducible amounts in terms of carbon dioxide. In the examination of the systems, it was focused on five technologies, namely, direct combustion of straw and rice straw/CHP/heat utilization, synthesis of gasified methanol from demolition wood, biogas/CHP from livestock feces and urine, conversion to ethanol through saccharification of used paper, and conversion to biodiesel from vegetable waste oil; the examination also covered each feature, core function, use situation inside and outside Japan, technological system for each energy conversion, etc. Further, solutions were examined and proposed concerning diffusion barriers in each scenario. Consequently, the maximum amount of CO2 reduction effect was found respectively 217 thousand t-C in the straw and rice straw, 500 thousand t-C in the demolition wood, 9.53 million t-C in the livestock feces/urine, 820 thousand t-C in the used paper, and 30 thousand t-C in the vegetable waste oil. (NEDO)

Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: Scenarios for 2030 and 2050

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Milakis, D.; Snelder, M.; Arem, B. van; Wee, B. van; Almeida Correia, G.H. de

2017-01-01

Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to

Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

2013-04-13

This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Land Access Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levine, Aaron L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Katherine R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-10-04

Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including access to land. Activities required for accessing land, such as environmental review and private and public leasing can take a considerable amount of time and can delay or prevent project development. This paper discusses the impacts to available geothermal resources and deployment caused by land access challenges, including tribal and cultural resources, environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land ownership, federal and state lease queues, and proximity to military installations. In this analysis, we identified challenges that have the potential to prevent development of identified and undiscovered hydrothermal geothermal resources. We found that an estimated 400 MW of identified geothermal resource potential and 4,000 MW of undiscovered geothermal resource potential were either unallowed for development or contained one or more significant barriers that could prevent development at the site. Potential improvement scenarios that could be employed to overcome these barriers include (1) providing continuous funding to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) for processing geothermal leases and permit applications and (2) the creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures. The model results forecast that continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 80 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 124 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures coupled with continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 97 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 152 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The small impact on potential deployment in these improvement scenarios suggests that these 4,400 MW have other barriers to development in addition to land access. In other words, simply

Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zivkovic, Marija; Pereverza, Kateryna; Pasichnyi, Oleksii; Madzarevic, Aleksandar; Ivezic, Dejan; Kordas, Olga

2016-01-01

Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario. - Highlights: • Energy system modelling is integrated into the participatory backcasting process. • Five scenarios and BAU for heating system in Niš by 2030 are analysed in LEAP. • The final scenario is based on EE, RES, DH, smart technologies and green architecture. • The

Using scenario based programming to develop embedded control software

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bettiol, F.

2015-01-01

A new paradigm to develop embedded software is waking up the interest of companies. Its name is Scenario Based Programming and it claims to be a good approach to develop embedded software. Live Sequence Charts (LSC), a visual language supporting the paradigm, enables the developers to specify a

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

Science.gov (United States)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process

Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands : Scenarios for 2030 and 2050

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Milakis, D.; Snelder, M.; van Arem, B.; van Wee, G.P.; Homem de Almeida Correia, G.

2017-01-01

Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to

CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

2010-01-01

The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

Scenario-based strategizing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

2017-01-01

For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

Greenhouse gas energy scenarios for Mexico in year 2020, and mitigation potential of renewable technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheinbaum, Claudia; Robles, Guillermo; Rodriguez V, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Massera, Omar [UNAM, Michoacan (Mexico)

2000-07-01

This paper presents the structure of the Mexican Energy-Emission Scenario Model (MEESM). In explains the importance of developing a bottom-up model for GHG mitigation assessment in Mexico. Also, the paper presents results of CO{sub 2} mitigation scenarios for year 2020 for five renewable energy technologies: solar water heaters, geothermal, biomass, mini/micro hydro and wind power generation. The paper concludes by discussing the importance of simulation accounting bottom-up models as tools for GHG mitigation policies. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta la estructura del Modelo de Escenario de Emision de Energia Mexicano (MEESM). En el se explica la importancia de desarrollar un modelo organizacional de abajo hacia arriba para la evaluacion de la mitigacion del efecto invernadero en Mexico. El articulo presenta tambien los resultados de los escenarios de mitigacion de CO{sub 2} para el ano 2020 utilizando cinco tecnologias de energia renovable: calentadores solares de agua, geotermia, biomasa, y mini/micro generacion de energia por agua y viento. El articulo concluye con el analisis de la importancia de la simulacion tomando en cuenta modelos organizacionales de abajo hacia arriba como herramientas para las politicas de mitigacion del efecto invernadero.

The European ITER Test Blanket Modules: Current status of fabrication technologies development and a way forward

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zmitko, Milan, E-mail: milan.zmitko@f4e.europa.eu [Fusion for Energy (F4E), Josep Pla 2, Barcelona (Spain); Galabert, Jose [Fusion for Energy (F4E), Josep Pla 2, Barcelona (Spain); Thomas, Noël [ATMOSTAT, F-94815 Villejuif (France); Forest, Laurent [CEA-Saclay, DEN, DM2S, SEMT, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Bucci, Philippe; Cogneau, Laurence [CEA-DRT, 38000 Grenoble (France); Rey, Jörg; Neuberger, Heiko [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Postfach 3640, Karlsruhe (Germany); Poitevin, Yves [Fusion for Energy (F4E), Josep Pla 2, Barcelona (Spain)

2015-10-15

Highlights: • Significant progress on development of welding procedures for European TBM achieved. • Fabrication processes feasibility based on diffusion and fusion welding demonstrated. • TBM box assembly welding scenarios investigated and welding scenarios identified. • Future qualification of pF/WPS proposed through realization of a number of QMUs. - Abstract: The paper reviews fabrication technologies and procedures applied for manufacturing of the TBM sub-components, like, HCLL and HCPB cooling plates, HCLL/HCPB stiffening plates, and HCLL/HCPB first wall and side caps. The used technologies are based on fusion and diffusion welding techniques taking into account specificities of the EUROFER-97 steel. Development of a standardized procedure complying with professional codes and standards (RCC-MRx), a preliminary fabrication/welding procedure specification (pF/WPS), is described as well as a fabrication and characterization of feasibility mock-ups (FMU) aimed at assessing the suitability of a fabrication process for fulfilling the design and fabrication specifications. Also, fabrication procedures for the TBM box assembly are presently under development through collaboration between European Fusion Laboratories and Industry for the establishment of an optimized assembly sequence/scenario and development of standardized welding procedure specifications. Selection of optimized assembly scenario takes into accounts not only the design requirements and fabrication possibilities/constraints but also maximum accessibility to the welds for sound non-destructive examination in compliance with welds classification. A future approach towards qualification of the developed fabrication technologies and procedures, through a number of medium to full-size qualification mock-ups according to European standards, is outlined before construction of the first TBMs.

Assessment of the potential of state-of-the-art biomass technologies in contributing to a sustainable SADC regional mitigation energy scenario[Southern African Development Community

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamba, F.D.; Matsika, E. [Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia, Lusaka (Zambia)

2003-09-01

Southern Africa's energy supply is based on power sector collaboration - the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). SAPP was created in 1995 through an inter-utility memorandum of understanding among 12 of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) utilities including Congo DR. The aims of SAPP are: To increase regional security of supply; To smoothen load curves; To engender economies of scale in the supply base; To increase revenue for exporting countries by opening up a ready market; To share power to meet national shortfalls and to off set temporary deficits in the medium term, and in the long term to adopt and implement power sharing as an operational strategy aimed at maximising financial and environmental benefits. Currently, SAPP has an operational installed capacity of 45.000 MW, of which 84% is thermal, predominantly coal based, which represents 79% of the total supply. 16% of the total SAPP interconnected supply is hydro, while the contribution from biomass is currently non-existent. The sugar industry in Southern Africa can significantly alter this picture. Increased competitive pressures serve as economic incentives for the sugar industry to diversify their product portfolio by investing in renewable energy applications. Of the new state-of-the-art biomass based technologies available Condensing Extraction Steam Turbine (CEST) is the most promising. Application of CEST technologies in Southern Africa will modestly contribute towards a sustainable energy supply mitigation scenario. If implemented, the contribution of bioenergy will increase from 0.5% for the baseline situation, to 2.5% in 2030 and 3.0% in 2050. This scenario will also yield global environmental benefits potential through saving of GHG reductions to 14 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2030 and 20 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2050. Furthermore, this paper produces a monogram which will assist investors in making decisions whether to invest in the Kyoto Protocols Clean Development

The iTREN-2030 reference scenario until 2030. Deliverable D4

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fiorello, Davide; De Stasio, Claudia; Koehler, Jonathan; Kraft, Markus; Netwon, Sean; Purwanto, Joko; Schade, Burkhard; Schade, Wolfgang; Szimba, Eckhard

2009-07-01

The basic objective of iTREN-2030 is to extend the forecasting and assessment capabilities of the TRANS-TOOLS transport model to the new policy issues arising from the technology, environment and energy fields. This is achieved by couplin the TRANS-TOOLS model with three other models, ASTRA, POLES and TREMOVE covering these new policy issues. The TRANS-TOOLS transport network model has been developed to constitute the reference tool for supporting transport policy in the EU and currently is being developed in several European projects. The scenario set-up to be developed in iTREN-2030 has been modified, so that the projects develops a reference scenario and an integrated scenario. For the reference scenario, the three other modelling tools are harmonised with TRANS-TOOLS and made consistent with each other. This results in a coherent scenario for Europe until 2030 for technology, transport, energy, environment and economic development. The integrated scenario will consider the changing framework conditions until 2030, inparticular the policy pressure coming from climate policy and the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels as well as the impact of the financial and economic crisis. Within the iTREN-2030 project, the overall objective of Work Package 4 (WP4) producing tis deliverable is to develop the reference scenario for the quantitative projections using the four modelling tools involved in the project. The main aims of WP4 are to (a) define a consistent framework for using the different tools in an integrated way; (b) calibrate models with exchanged input to a coherent joint reference; (c) implement external input from WP3 and running models for projections; (d) produce output procedures and templates to facilitate assessment in WP5.

International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

2007-07-01

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

2007-01-01

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

Implications of technological learning on the prospects for renewable energy technologies in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uyterlinde, Martine A.; Junginger, Martin; Vries, Hage J. de; Faaij, Andre P.C.; Turkenburg, Wim C.

2007-01-01

The objective of this article is to examine the consequences of technological developments on the market diffusion of different renewable electricity technologies in the EU-25 until 2020, using a market simulation model (ADMIRE REBUS). It is assumed that from 2012 a harmonized trading system will be implemented, and a target of 24% renewable electricity (RES-E) in 2020 is set and met. By comparing optimistic and pessimistic endogenous technological learning scenarios, it is found that diffusion of onshore wind energy is relatively robust, regardless of technological development, but diffusion rates of offshore wind energy and biomass gasification greatly depend on their technological development. Competition between these two options and (existing) biomass combustion options largely determines the overall costs of electricity from renewables and the choice of technologies for the individual member countries. In the optimistic scenario, in 2020 the market price for RES-E is 1 Euro ct/kWh lower than in the pessimistic scenario (about 7 vs. 8 Euro ct/kWh). As a result, total RES-E production costs are 19% lower, and total governmental expenditures for RES-market stimulation are 30% lower in the optimistic scenario

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

Future impact of new technologies: Three scenarios, their competence gaps and research implications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harmsen, Hanne; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

the 'technology push' and 'market pull representatives', whom we feel are both very important basic driving forces. The aim is to get an idea of the very different roles science or technology can take in the near future for a specific industry, in this case the Danish food industry and present a methodological......What will the impact of science be ten years from now in the food industry? Large or overwhelming most people will probably agree. But before we can be any more specific, we need to address the questions of what type or aspect of science or technology we have in mind and secondly, what kind...... in the future. Our approach is to construct a number of likely pictures of the future and then look at the role and impact of technology and science in each of the pictures. We do this by using an industry level scenario technique, in which we rely heavily on expert and industry inputs representing both...

Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama's electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McPherson, Madeleine; Karney, Bryan

2014-01-01

Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail. - Highlights: • This paper models Panama's electricity sector using the LEAP model platform. • Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. • Impact analysis includes: system cost, global warming potential, resource diversity index. • Panama can achieve a sustainable grid with existing technologies and costs. • There is an tradeoff between the resource diversity and global warming potential

A 'must-go path' scenario for sustainable development and the role of nuclear energy in the 21st century

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeong, Hae-Yong; Kim, Young-In; Lee, Yong-Bum; Ha, Kwi-Seok; Won, Byung-Chool; Lee, Dong-Uk; Hahn, Dohee [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea)

2010-04-15

An increase in the world population has accelerated the consumption of fossil fuels and deepened the pollution of global environment. As a result of these human activities, it is now difficult to clearly guarantee the sustainable future of humankind. An intuitional 'must-go path' scenario for the sustainable development of human civilization is proposed by extrapolating the human historical data over 30 years between 1970 and 2000. One of the most important parameters in order to realize the 'must-go path' scenario is the sustainability of energy without further pollution. In some countries an expanded use of nuclear energy is advantageous to increase sustainability, but fast reactor technology and closed fuel cycle have to be introduced to make it sustainable. In other countries, the development of cost-effective renewable energy, and the clean use of coal and oil are urgently needed to reduce pollution. The effect of fast nuclear reactor technology on sustainability as an option for near-term energy source is detailed in this paper. More cooperation between countries and worldwide collaboration coordinated by international organizations are essential to make the 'must-go path' scenario real in the upcoming 20 or 30 years. (author)

Trends in scenario development methodologies and integration in NUMO's approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebashi, Takeshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Kawamura, Hideki; Gaus, Irina; Vomvoris, Stratis; Martin, Andrew J.; Smith, Paul

2011-01-01

The development of scenarios for quantitative or qualitative analysis is a key element of the assessment of the safety of geological disposal systems. As an outcome of an international workshop attended by European and the Japanese implementers, a number of features common to current methodologies could be identified, as well as trends in their evolution over time. In the late nineties, scenario development was often described as a bottom-up process, whereby scenarios were said to be developed in essence from FEP databases. Nowadays, it is recognised that, in practice, the approaches actually adopted are better described as top-down or 'hybrid', taking as their starting point an integrated (top-down) understanding of the system under consideration including uncertainties in initial state, sometimes assisted by the development of 'storyboards'. A bottom-up element remains (hence the term 'hybrid') to the extent that FEP databases or FEP catalogues (including interactions) are still used, but the focus is generally on completeness checking, which occurs parallel to the main assessment process. Recent advances focus on the consistent treatment of uncertainties throughout the safety assessment and on the integration of operational safety and long term safety. (author)

Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

OpenAIRE

Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

2013-01-01

The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional a...

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies; Etude detaillee des scenarios de transmutation faisant appel aux technologies actuelles pour les reacteurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

Scenarios for the future - possible futures for climate and technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laramee de Tannenberg, Valery; Guillaume, Bertrand

2012-01-01

This bibliographical note presents a book in which the authors study different scenarios to challenge climate change. After having recalled reasons for this change, already made observations, and the emergence of a consensus on climate change (IPCC creation), they propose an assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and of the evolution of anthropogenic emissions, and then study the different scenarios proposed by the IEA. They discuss the various geo-engineering solutions (diffraction of solar radiation by microscopic particles dispersed in space, seawater ferrugination, city discolouring, extraction of CO 2 from the atmosphere) and outline the associated risks and hazards. Because of these associated risks, hazards and costs, they prefer solutions like the development of renewable energies, positive dwelling, evolution of transports, and carbon capture and storage

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa M Adams

Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

The effects of a learning analytics empowered technology on students' arithmetic skill development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Molenaar, I.; Knoop-van Campen, C.A.N.; Hasselman, F.W.

2017-01-01

Learning analytics empowered educational technologies (LA-ET) in primary classrooms allow for blended learning scenarios with teacher-lead instructions, class-paced and individually-paced practice. This quasi-experimental study investigates the effects of a LA-ET on the development of students'

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-01-01

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bisinella, Valentina

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... field. The quantitative modelling implications were tested within real-scale LCA models focusing on the management of residual waste in Denmark. In a wide range of scenarios, this thesis addressed the influence on the LCA model results of realistic technology and waste composition uncertainties, as well...

New Technologies and Sustainable Development of Industry; Neue Technologien und nachhaltige Entwicklung der Industrie

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muggli, Christoph; Baumgartner, Walter; Werner, Frank [Basics AG, Beckenhofstrasse 16, CH-8035 Zurich (Switzerland)

1996-08-01

The present technology assessment study examines the effects of three technology scenarios on future energy consumption and the energy-related emissions by industrial manufacturing in Switzerland. The three paths of development (Trend, High-Tech, Alternative) can be represented as follows: After a reduction until 2015, the Trend development entails a slight increase in consumption of energy. Until then consumption is some 10 percent lower in both the High-Tech and the Alternative Scenarios. Consumption of electricity increases in all scenarios, the proportion is highest in 20 year's time under the High-Tech scenario. SO{sub 2} and CO{sub 2} emissions decrease in all scenarios until 2000 and then level out at a low level. The emissions are lowest in the High-Tech scenario. In contrast the NO{sub x} and the VOC emissions diminish until 2000 and then rise again continuously. At this juncture important bases are still not yet available for a definitive evaluation with respect to the sustainable development. Sustainability objectives are currently being compiled for Switzerland in the wake of the Berlin Climate Conference and the Rio Conference. In the political lobbies the Green factions are making demands, such as those currently under discussion internationally (e.g. CO{sub 2} reductions on a scale of some 80 percent by 2050), whereas conservative and industrial circle representatives support the objective of sustainable development but reject a quantification of objectives. The official objectives of the Swiss Energy 2000 programme can be achieved with all scenarios. With the High-Tech and Alternative scenarios, concepts of a reduction in CO{sub 2} by 20 percent by 2015 (as currently under discussion in Switzerland), are realistic. However, further energy-relevant efficiency potentials in industrial production can be activated by energy-policy motivated measures. More extensive objectives, such as e.g. a CO{sub 2} reduction of 50 percent, are hardly attainable, even

New Technologies and Sustainable Development of Industry; Neue Technologien und nachhaltige Entwicklung der Industrie

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muggli, Christoph; Baumgartner, Walter; Werner, Frank [Basics AG, Beckenhofstrasse 16, CH-8035 Zurich (Switzerland)

1996-08-01

The present technology assessment study examines the effects of three technology scenarios on future energy consumption and the energy-related emissions by industrial manufacturing in Switzerland. The three paths of development (Trend, High-Tech, Alternative) can be represented as follows: After a reduction until 2015, the Trend development entails a slight increase in consumption of energy. Until then consumption is some 10 percent lower in both the High-Tech and the Alternative Scenarios. Consumption of electricity increases in all scenarios, the proportion is highest in 20 year's time under the High-Tech scenario. SO{sub 2} and CO{sub 2} emissions decrease in all scenarios until 2000 and then level out at a low level. The emissions are lowest in the High-Tech scenario. In contrast the NO{sub x} and the VOC emissions diminish until 2000 and then rise again continuously. At this juncture important bases are still not yet available for a definitive evaluation with respect to the sustainable development. Sustainability objectives are currently being compiled for Switzerland in the wake of the Berlin Climate Conference and the Rio Conference. In the political lobbies the Green factions are making demands, such as those currently under discussion internationally (e.g. CO{sub 2} reductions on a scale of some 80 percent by 2050), whereas conservative and industrial circle representatives support the objective of sustainable development but reject a quantification of objectives. The official objectives of the Swiss Energy 2000 programme can be achieved with all scenarios. With the High-Tech and Alternative scenarios, concepts of a reduction in CO{sub 2} by 20 percent by 2015 (as currently under discussion in Switzerland), are realistic. However, further energy-relevant efficiency potentials in industrial production can be activated by energy-policy motivated measures. More extensive objectives, such as e.g. a CO{sub 2} reduction of 50 percent, are hardly attainable

Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

Science.gov (United States)

Payne, J. F.

2016-12-01

Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

2012-01-01

Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

Household cooking fuels and technologies in developing economies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foell, Wesley; Pachauri, Shonali; Spreng, Daniel; Zerriffi, Hisham

2011-01-01

A major energy challenge of the 21st century is the health and welfare of 2.7 billion people worldwide, who currently rely on burning biomass in traditional household cooking systems. This Special Issue on Clean Cooking Fuels and Technologies in Developing Economies builds upon an IAEE workshop on this subject, held in Istanbul in 2008. It includes several papers from that workshop plus papers commissioned afterwards. The major themes of that workshop and this Special Issue are: •Analytical and decision frameworks for analysis and policy development for clean cooking fuels. •Making energy provisioning a central component of development strategies. •Strategies/business models of suppliers of modern fuels and technologies. •Analysis of successes/failures of past policies and programs to improve access to clean cooking. This introductory paper serves as a preamble to the 11 papers in this Special Issue. It provides a brief background on household cooking fuels and technologies, including: (1) their implications for sustainable development, health and welfare, gender impacts, and environment/climate issues; (2) options and scenarios for improved household cooling systems; and (3) discussions of institutions, programs and markets. It closes with “Research and Action Agendas”, initially developed during the 2008 workshop.

Design and development of driving simulator scenarios for road validation studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dols Ruiz, J.F.

2016-07-01

In recent years, the number of road-based studies using driving simulators is growing significantly. This allows evaluating controlled situations that otherwise would require disproportionate observations in time and/or cost. The Institute of Design and Manufacturing (IDF) of the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) has developed, in collaboration with the Engineering Research Group Highway (GIIC) of the UPV, a low cost simulator that allows rapid implementation and effectively a new methodology for validation studies of different roads through the implementation in the simulator scenarios of existing roads. This methodology allows the development of new scenarios based on the analysis of a layers-file system. Each layer includes different information from the road, such as mapping, geometry, signaling, aerial photos, etc. The creation of the simulated scenario is very fast based on the geometric design software, making it easier to consulting firms using the system that can evaluate and audit a particular route, obtaining reliable conclusions at minimal cost, even if the road is not actually built. This paper describes the basic structure of the layers generated for developing scenarios and guidelines for the implementation thereof. Finally the application of this methodology to a case of success will be described. (Author)

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

Feature, Event, and Process Screening and Scenario Development for the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnard, R.; Barr, G.; Burch, P.; Freeze, G.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Swift, P.

1999-01-01

Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1992-12-31

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

2005-09-07

For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kok, K.; Biggs, R.; Zurek, M.

2007-01-01

Scenario planning is increasingly recognized as a useful tool for exploring change in social-ecological systems on decadal to centennial time horizons. In environmental decision making, scenario development tends to include participatory methods for engaging stakeholders and is conducted at multiple

Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, E.R. Sr.

1991-01-01

Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

Developments in Science and Technology

Science.gov (United States)

1984-01-01

ophthalmology, neurosensory re- search and instrumentation development, cardiovascular systems, patient monitor- ing, therapy and rehabilitation , clinical...session on scenarios. Although scenarios are widely used The term scenario originated in drama but now in analyses, technical evaluations, and wargames and...Wilkinson and D. W. Rabenhorst-High Speed tration Produced during Photoradiation Therapy Us- Imaging Television System, No. 4,453,182 ing a CW

Developing High-Fidelity Health Care Simulation Scenarios: A Guide for Educators and Professionals

Science.gov (United States)

Alinier, Guillaume

2011-01-01

The development of appropriate scenarios is critical in high-fidelity simulation training. They need to be developed to address specific learning objectives, while not preventing other learning points from emerging. Buying a patient simulator, finding a volunteer to act as the patient, or even obtaining ready-made scenarios from another simulation…

Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hertwich, Edgar G; Gibon, Thomas; Bouman, Evert A; Arvesen, Anders; Suh, Sangwon; Heath, Garvin A; Bergesen, Joseph D; Ramirez, Andrea; Vega, Mabel I; Shi, Lei

2015-05-19

Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

Maintaining Continuity of Knowledge (CoK) of Spent Fuel Pools: Tool Survey - Scenarios, Technology Considerations, and Evaluation Criteria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benz, Jacob M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Tanner, Jennifer E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Smart, Heidi A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); MacDougall, Matthew R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2016-01-18

The objective of this report is to identify the foundational elements which will drive the survey and evaluation of potential technologies to be considered to maintain CoK of spent fuel within a pool in the potential absence of light or in low light scenarios. These foundational elements include identifying use cases that highlight the type of environments in which the technologies may be asked to operate; the CoK elements required of the technologies, such as unique identification or presence/absence identification; the functional and operational requirements for the technologies; and the criteria against which the technologies will be evaluated.

Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krivtchik, Guillaume

2014-01-01

Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author) [fr

A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, In Hyo [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu Univ., Geumsan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Si Won [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (United States)

2016-10-15

Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system.

A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, In Hyo; Son, Han Seong; Kim, Si Won; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system

Development of the New Educational Content "small Uas in Civil Engineering Application Scenarios"

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, E.; Vach, K.; Shults, R.

2017-12-01

The key point of this paper is presentation of the main idea and some results of the project "Small UAS in civil engineering application scenarios" (SUAS-CAS). This project was proposed by newly established in 2016 ISPRS WG V/7: "Innovative Technologies in Training Civil Engineers and Architects". Here we are presenting our experience in using low-cost UAS in training architects at Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, which was chosen as basic for this project. In the first part of paper, the project outline is presented. Then the first and possible follow project outcomes were described. In some details is described the training module "Small UAS in architecture" which was developed and included as a part of the subject "Architectural photogrammetry".

Development of Accident Scenarios and Quantification Methodology for RAON Accelerator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yongjin; Jae, Moosung

2014-01-01

The RIsp (Rare Isotope Science Project) plans to provide neutron-rich isotopes (RIs) and stable heavy ion beams. The accelerator is defined as radiation production system according to Nuclear Safety Law. Therefore, it needs strict operate procedures and safety assurance to prevent radiation exposure. In order to satisfy this condition, there is a need for evaluating potential risk of accelerator from the design stage itself. Though some of PSA researches have been conducted for accelerator, most of them focus on not general accident sequence but simple explanation of accident. In this paper, general accident scenarios are developed by Event Tree and deduce new quantification methodology of Event Tree. In this study, some initial events, which may occur in the accelerator, are selected. Using selected initial events, the accident scenarios of accelerator facility are developed with Event Tree. These results can be used as basic data of the accelerator for future risk assessments. After analyzing the probability of each heading, it is possible to conduct quantification and evaluate the significance of the accident result. If there is a development of the accident scenario for external events, risk assessment of entire accelerator facility will be completed. To reduce the uncertainty of the Event Tree, it is possible to produce a reliable data via the presented quantification techniques

Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon P. Sadler

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

2007-01-01

In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008

Capacity building in renewable energy technologies in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fridleifsson, Ingvar

2010-09-15

The renewable energy sources are expected to provide 20-40% of the world primary energy in 2050, depending on scenarios. A key element in the mitigation of climate change is capacity building in renewable energy technologies in the developing countries, where the main energy use growth is expected. An innovative training programme for geothermal energy professionals developed in Iceland is an example of how this can be done effectively. In 1979-2009, 424 scientists/engineers from 44 developing countries have completed the 6 month courses. In many countries in Africa, Asia, C-America, and E-Europe, UNU-GTP Fellows are among the leading geothermal specialists.

Development of steady-state scenarios compatible with ITER-like wall conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Litaudon, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Arnoux, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Beurskens, M [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)] (and others)

2007-12-15

A key issue for steady-state tokamak operation is to determine the edge conditions that are compatible both with good core confinement and with the power handling and plasma exhaust capabilities of the plasma facing components (PFCs) and divertor systems. A quantitative response to this open question will provide a robust scientific basis for reliable extrapolation of present regimes to an ITER compatible steady-state scenario. In this context, the JET programme addressing steady-state operation is focused on the development of non-inductive, high confinement plasmas with the constraints imposed by the PFCs. A new beryllium main chamber wall and tungsten divertor together with an upgrade of the heating/fuelling capability are currently in preparation at JET. Operation at higher power with this ITER-like wall will impose new constraints on non-inductive scenarios. Recent experiments have focused on the preparation for this new phase of JET operation. In this paper, progress in the development of advanced tokamak (AT) scenarios at JET is reviewed keeping this long-term objective in mind. The approach has consisted of addressing various critical issues separately during the 2006-2007 campaigns with a view to full scenario integration when the JET upgrades are complete. Regimes with internal transport barriers (ITBs) have been developed at q{sub 95} {approx} 5 and high triangularity, {delta} (relevant to the ITER steady-state demonstration) by applying more than 30 MW of additional heating power reaching {beta}{sub N} {approx} 2 at B{sub o} {approx} 3.1 T. Operating at higher {delta} has allowed the edge pedestal and core densities to be increased pushing the ion temperature closer to that of the electrons. Although not yet fully integrated into a performance enhancing ITB scenario, Neon seeding has been successfully explored to increase the radiated power fraction (up to 60%), providing significant reduction of target tile power fluxes (and hence temperatures) and

Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

Science.gov (United States)

Sherwin, P.

1981-01-01

All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

Data Input and Content Exploration in Scenarios with Restrictions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D.C. Pedrosa

2014-01-01

htmlabstractAs technology evolves, new devices and interaction techniques are developed. These transformations create several challenges in terms of usability and user experience. Our research faces some challenges for data input or content exploration in scenarios with restrictions. It is not our

Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

2002-03-01

The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND BUSINESS DIVERSIFICATION: SUSTAINABILITY LIVELIHOODS IMPROVEMENT SCENARIO OF RICE FARMER HOUSEHOLD IN SUB-OPTIMAL LAND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriani D.

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The increased role of the sub-optimal land to support food security continue to be encouraged in Indonesia, given the more limited expansion for potential land. But until recently, development of sub-optimal land becomes not an easy thing. Ecological and technical barriers became the main issue. A series of these issues resulted in a high number of underemproleymeny and poverty in agriculture region. Technological inovation of agriculture and the business diversification can be seen be the solution to those issues. This research aims to analyze the impact of the technological innovation and business diversification on underemployment, working time, household income and also sustainable livelihoods of farmers on the sub-optimal land. The research was carried out in Pemulutan District, Ogan Ilir Regency, South Sumatra Province, Indonesia. The objects of research are farmers which adopter and non adopter technological innovation, and also work outside of paddy farming (business diversification. The research method is the survey. Method of sampling is stratified random sampling. Data obtained in the field analyses using descriptive statistics and inferesia. The results showed there are positive impact of technological innovation on the allocation of working time farmer households, the numbers underemployment, household income and livelihood sustainability. Determinant factors for farmers in applying technology and business diversification are paddy farming income, off-farm income, and age. The use of technology and business diversification proves to be one of the positive scenarios for sustainable livelihood of farmers in sub-optimal land.

A Knowledge Management Scenario to Support Knowledge Applications Development in Small and Medium Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ROSU, S. M.

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, in the European countries more than 95% of the companies are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs and majority of the European Union employees work in these companies. In order to develop intelligent business to become competitive, the enterprises must increase the quality and technologic level of products and services, to have permanent new product or to make old products bettering and to have a good prices policy. These activities request first a large amount of data, information and knowledge collected from all sources and then request transferring knowledge at each enterprise level. Therefore, this work analyses the state of art of the knowledge and knowledge management (KM and propose KM scenario to support knowledge applications (KApps development in SMEs. In addition, the paper presents how can be knowledge bases built at the enterprise level.

Accuracy of progress ratios determined from experience curves: the case of photovoltaic technology development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074628526; Alsema, E.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073416258; Junginger, H.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/202130703; de Moor, H.H.C.; Schaeffer, G.J.

2008-01-01

Learning curves are extensively used in policy and scenario studies. Progress ratios (PRs) are derived from historical data and are used for forecasting cost development of many technologies, including photovoltaics (PV). Forecasts are highly sensitive to uncertainties in the PR. A PR usually is

Performance analysis of dedicated short range communications technology and overview of the practicability for developing countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vandana Bassoo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Vehicular communication is a widely researched field and aims at developing technologies that may complement systems such as the advanced driver assistance systems. It is therefore important to analyse and infer on the performance of vehicular technologies for different driving and on-road criteria. This study considers the dedicated short range communications technology and more precisely the IEEE 802.11p standard for a performance and practicability analysis. There is also the proposal of a new classification scheme for typical driving conditions, which includes the main categories of Emergency and Safety scenarios while sub-classifications of Critical and Preventive Safety also exist. The scheme is used to build up scenarios as well as related equations relevant to developing countries for practical network simulation. The results obtained indicate that the relative speed of nodes is a determining factor in the overall performance and effectiveness of wireless vehicular communication systems. Moreover, delay values of low order were observed while an effective communication range of about 800 m was calculated for highway scenarios. The research thus indicates suitability of the system for an active use in collision avoidance even though independent factors such as climatic conditions and driver behaviour may affect its effectiveness in critical situations.

Design storytelling with future scenario development; envisioning "the museum"

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eggink, Wouter; Albert de la Bruheze, Adri A.

2015-01-01

There are different ways to tell stories with design. This paper shows possibilities of telling stories by envisioning the future. Overall, design has the very ability to envision, visualize and express things that do not exist yet. We introduce the Future Scenario Development Design methodology as

Shale gas technology innovation rate impact on economic Base Case – Scenario model benchmarks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weijermars, Ruud

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Cash flow models control which technology is affordable in emerging shale gas plays. • Impact of technology innovation on IRR can be as important as wellhead price hikes. • Cash flow models are useful for technology decisions that make shale gas plays economic. • The economic gap can be closed by appropriate technology innovation. - Abstract: Low gas wellhead prices in North America have put its shale gas industry under high competitive pressure. Rapid technology innovation can help companies to improve the economic performance of shale gas fields. Cash flow models are paramount for setting effective production and technology innovation targets to achieve positive returns on investment in all global shale gas plays. Future cash flow of a well (or cluster of wells) may either improve further or deteriorate, depending on: (1) the regional volatility in gas prices at the wellhead – which must pay for the gas resource extraction, and (2) the cost and effectiveness of the well technology used. Gas price is an externality and cannot be controlled by individual companies, but well technology cost can be reduced while improving production output. We assume two plausible scenarios for well technology innovation and model the return on investment while checking against sensitivity to gas price volatility. It appears well technology innovation – if paced fast enough – can fully redeem the negative impact of gas price decline on shale well profits, and the required rates are quantified in our sensitivity analysis

Homogeneous groups of plants, development scenarios, and basic configurations on the cogeneration systems optimization from the alcohol sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva Walter, A.C. da; Bajay, S.V.; Carrillo, J.L.L.

1990-01-01

The evaluation of introducing or diffusing new technologies at a macro economic level using micro economic information can be carried out through the careful selection of a small number of homogeneous groups of plants from the point of view of the main technical parameters being considered. In this paper this concept is applied to the study of cogeneration in sugar and alcohol producing plants. The statistical techniques of Cluster Analysis, regressions and mean value testing are used. Basic cogeneration plant designs are proposed for alternatives development scenarios for this industrial branch. These scenarios are based upon differing assumptions about the expansion of alcohol market, use of surplus sugar cane bagasse as saleable commodity, as a fuel or raw material, and price expectations for the sale of surplus power from the cogeneration plants to the local grid. (author)

Transport Pathways for Light Duty Vehicles: Towards a 2° Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Cuenot

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.

A world of differences, the normative EOS-scenarios. Final report of a study to found the normative scenarios of the project Energy research scenarios of the Energy Study Centre (ECN, Petten, Netherlands). Een wereld van verschil, de normatieve EOS-scenario's. Eindrapport van een studie ter onderbouwing van de normatieve scenario's van het project Energie Onderzoek Scenario's van het Energie Studie Centrum (ECN, Petten)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dinkelman, G.

1987-11-01

Three competing political and economical 'concepts of control' which underlie three normative energy-scenarios are described. The aim of the literature-research carried out for this report was to make the original scenarios more recognizable, and to find out which groups could be expected to support them. The concepts of control bear the names 'Dynamic and growth', 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' and 'Shared development'. They can be seen, so is argued, as competing perspectives on a so-called 'post-Fordist' world. The three concepts of control differ on what they see as common interests and the way they should be looked after. Topics in the description are: the desired rate of European political and economical integration, the borders of Europe, Europe's position in the world, the acceptance of new technologies, the goals they should be used for, and perceived relationships between energy, environment and economy. The scenarios show what happens if these three concepts of control become hegemonic without being forced to compromises. For all three scenarios a short sketch is given of the corresponding dominating energy- and environmental policy and of future relationships within OECD and between OECD on the one hand and NIC's/LDC's on the other. The conclusion of the report is that the ideological differences between the neoliberalism of 'Dynamic and growth' and the green, direct-democracy-politics of 'Shared development' are not as big as they were in the seventies. Especially on the new policy-areas like technology, energy and environment they get closer. But this does not mean that the concept of 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' can be put completely aside. Its goal of economic equality and its emphasis on government dirigation may become more attractive again if it comes out that market regulation leads to a dual society and that it was state-intervention (by

Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico; Escenarios energeticos para la produccion de hidrogeno en Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)], e-mail: iqoren@gmail.com

2009-10-15

The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO{sub 2}. The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO{sub 2}, the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

81 options. Technology for sustainable development; 81 mogelijkheden. Technologie voor duurzame ontwikkeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weterings, R.; Kuijper, J.; Smeets, E. [TNO Studiecentrum voor Technologie en Beleid TNO-STB, Apeldoorn (Netherlands); Annokee, G.J. [TNO Milieu, Energie en Procesinnovatie TNO-MEP, Apeldoorn (Netherlands); Minne, B. [Centraal Planbureau CPB, The Hague (Netherlands)

1997-03-01

An outline is given of the chances and threats of technological developments for the environment in the next 25 years. First, the most important technological supply-side developments were inventorized and assessed for their environmental relevance and in the light of three CPB-scenarios. From the results of the analysis it appears that their are many options to improve the environmental efficiency of products and processes. An important motive to develop environment-efficient technology is the price of energy. A higher price for energy will stimulate the development of energy efficient products and processes. Also the interest for dematerialization will increase while the processing of basic materials and the use of materials requires energy too. A second important motive is the demand for environment-efficient products. The market introduction of new environment-friendly products strongly depends on the quality consciousness (including the environmental quality) of the consumer. With respect to the environmental policy it can be concluded that technological innovation is important in the transfer of a decontamination-based policy to a prevention-based policy. 95 refs.

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, F. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miles, J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Zammit, D. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Loomis, D. [Great Lakes Wind Network, Cleveland, OH (United States)

2015-02-01

This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

Hanford groundwater scenario studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

1977-05-01

This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-04-15

This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

Reflection on Migration Scenarios 2G and 3G Mobile Networks to Fourth Generation in Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergio A. Sepúlveda-Leiva

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In the development of the following article is an analysis of some of the migration scenarios third generation mobile technologies for fourth generation mobile technologies, in order to select which is the most suitable migration scenario for mobile operators Colombia, taking into account the characteristics of the market and the needs that are more optimally suited for the needs of mobile operators in the country, the whole development of the article is based on operators with own infrastructure is not analyzed migration characteristics of mobile virtual network operators.

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.

JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, N. S.

2018-04-01

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

A sustainable scenario for Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050 and its costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bautista, Santiago

2012-01-01

The present research study used the quantitative approach to analyze the present and future situation of the Venezuelan power generation sector; to achieve that, the total energy generation costs and GHG emissions of four scenarios in 2050 were estimated and compared, considering two demand groups, high and low demand. For each demand scenario, two supply matrix were considered, a generation matrix based on the existing national power generation plans and trends (these scenarios were referred as BAU) and a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available in Venezuela and without the use of either nuclear or CCS technologies, and these scenarios are referred as Sustainable Scenarios (SUS). In the first section, the present situation is presented, followed by an explanation of the applied methodology and the implemented tools. In the third and fourth sections the available recourses and the applied basic assumptions for the four of scenarios are presented and discussed, respectively, followed by the results. In this study it is shown that Venezuela has all the resources it needs to achieve sustainable development in the power generation sector. It is also proved that an energy efficiency improvement is the easiest path to reduce GHG emissions. - Highlights: ► Venezuela has enough energy resources to supply the energy require for its development. ► A sustainable scenario is posible in Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050. ► The sustainable scenario is technically possible without nuclear power or carbon capture storage technologies. ► The impact over the depleatable resources is higher under the BAU assumptions.

Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barber, E.J. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

1991-12-31

In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

Role of technologies in energy-related CO2 mitigation in China within a climate-protection world: A scenarios analysis using REMIND

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Shuwei; Bauer, Nico; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The augmented REMIND model is used to study the role of energy technologies under a carbon tax. • The scale and timing of fossil fuels with CCS, nuclear, and renewables are examined. • CCS is important but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited. • The effectiveness of nuclear is strongly linked to its cost performance. • Renewable energy is a long-term mitigation option. - Abstract: In a world with the need of climate protection through emission reduction, China’s domestic mitigation will be put on the national agenda. The large-scale deployment of innovative technologies induced by climate policies is a key determinant for reducing emissions in an effective and efficient manner. A distinguishing feature of the Chinese energy sector (especially electricity generation), is that investment costs are significantly lower than in other world regions. Represented in the methodological framework of the augmented REMIND model, three promising mitigation technologies (also known as technology clusters) in the electricity sector: CCS with advanced coal-generation technologies, nuclear, and renewables are the focus of this study. The scenarios are designed to analyze the roles of these technologies and their associated economic impacts under a climate policy (i.e., a carbon tax). Our results indicate that: (1)Technology policies improving the techno-economic features of low-carbon technologies are insufficient to restrain China’s increasing emissions. (2)Carbon-pricing policies can effectively reduce emissions by making low-carbon options more competitive than conventional fossil fuel alternatives. In the global carbon tax regime framed in this paper, China’s mitigation potential is larger than that of any of other region and the peak of emissions occurs earlier (by 2020) and is 50% lower than in the BASE scenario. (3)CCS is important, but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited to the near- to mid-term future. It

Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Billington, D.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base, scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. A variant scenario defined by a single initiating FEP is characterised by a sequence of events. This is represented as a 'timeline' which forms the basis for modelling that scenario. To generate a variant scenario defined by two initiating FEPs, a methodology is presented for combining the timelines for the two underlying 'single-FEP' variants. The resulting series of event sequences can be generated automatically. These sequences are then reviewed, in order to reduce the number of timelines requiring detailed consideration. This is achieved in two ways: by aggregating sequences which have similar consequence in terms of safety performance; and by combining successive intervals along a timeline where appropriate. In the context of a performance assessment, the aim is to determine the conditional risk and appropriate weight for each

Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

2017-04-01

The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

Accumulation of operational history through emulation test to meet proven technology requirement for newly developed I and C technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeong Cheol, Shin; Sung Kon, Kang; Han Seong, Son

2006-01-01

As new advanced digital I and C technology with potential benefits of higher functionality and better cost effectiveness is available in the market, NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) operators are inclined to use the new technology for the construction of new plant and the upgrade of existing plants. However, this new technology poses risks to the NPP operators at the same time. These risks are mainly due to the poor reliability of newly developed technology. KHNP's past experiences with the new equipment shows many cases of reliability problems. And their consequences include unintended plant trips, lowered acceptance of the new digital technology by the plant I and C maintenance crew, and increased licensing burden in answering for questions from the nuclear regulatory body. Considering the fact that the risk of these failures in the nuclear plant operation is far greater than those in other industry, nuclear power plant operators want proven technology for I and C systems. This paper presents an approach for the emulation of operational history through which a newly developed technology becomes a proven technology. One of the essential elements of this approach is the feedback scheme of running the new equipment in emulated environment, gathering equipment failure, and correcting the design(and test bed). The emulation of environment includes normal and abnormal events of the new equipment such as reconfiguration of control system due to power failure, plant operation including full spectrum of credible scenarios in an NPP. Emulation of I and C equipment execution mode includes normal operation, initialization and termination, abnormal operation, hardware maintenance and maintenance of algorithm/software. Plant specific simulator is used to create complete profile of plant operational conditions that I and C equipment is to experience in the real plant. Virtual operating crew technology is developed to run the simulator scenarios without involvement of actual operators

Development of Cyber Theater titled "PINOCCHIO" and Cyber Theater Scenario Language: CTSL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroshi Matsuda

2003-10-01

Full Text Available In Japan, most of children haven't read the Fairy Tales or tales of old Japan because the high technology video games are more exciting than most of picture books. But they must be effective to bring up the children's cultivation of aesthetic sensitivity. And we have heard from teachers of elementary schools that most of themes of computer education in school are the operation of Painting Tool or Game Software. To improve these problems and to aid the courses of computer-based education in elementary school, we developed new educational support tool named Cyber Theater. Cyber Theater provides the capability of easy making the 3D-CG animation of children's story by using Script language named CTSL (Cyber Theater Scenario Language. We hope schoolteachers will be able to use Cyber Tales as teaching materials in elementary schools. We also hope that upper-aged students (including junior high school students are able to make their original CG-animation stories as the Creative Lesson.

Challenges and opportunities of international biomass market: Findings from a scenario study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinimoe, J. (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Mikkeli (Finland)); Ojanen, V.; Koessi, T. (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Lappeenranta (Finland))

2007-07-01

The markets of biomass are developing rapidly and becoming more international. Although biomass has potential to become a more important source of energy, the remarkable increase in biomass use for energy needs parallel and positive development in several sectors and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. To support the positive development of market and to make the most of the development it is needed to have understanding about the market dynamics. The objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020 and based on the scenario process to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. A heuristic semi structured approach was applied in the scenario processes. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The scenario analysis shows the key issues on the field: global economic growth including the growing need of energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of the technological development to solve the global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for the global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. (orig.)

Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

2008-01-01

The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

2014-03-15

In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Feature, event, and process screening and scenario development for the yucca mountain total system performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swift, P.; Barr, G.; Barnard, R.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Freeze, G.; Burck, P.

2001-01-01

Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of postclosure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). To ensure clear documentation of the treatment of potentially relevant future states of the system in the Yucca Mountain license application (LA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) has chosen to adopt a scenario development process based on the methodology developed by Cranwell et al. (1990) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Although the process, described below, has been modified somewhat as a result of experience gained in the last decade, the underlying methodology is consistent with that outlined by the DOE in the 1988 Site Characterization Plan for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) (U.S. DOE, 1988). The approach is fundamentally the same as that used in many performance assessments, including the most recent analysis of the Yucca Mountain repository by the NRC (Wescott et al., 1995). The approach has also been used by the DOE for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) (U.S. DOE, 1996), by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), and by other radioactive waste programs internationally. Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited. (authors)

Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

2015-12-01

Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

2015-01-01

In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

Fiscal 1975 Sunshine Project research report. Technology assessment on hydrogen energy technology. Part 2; 1975 nendo suiso energy gijutsu no technology assessment seika hokokuksho. 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1976-03-31

This research assesses the impact of development of practical hydrogen energy technology on the economy, society and environment in Japan, and proposes some effective countermeasures, the required technical development target and a promising promotion system. The example of technology assessment assuming practical technology several tens years after is hardly found. Hydrogen energy technology is in the first stage among (1) initial planning stage, (2) technical research and development stage, (3) practical technology stage and (4) service operation stage. In the first fiscal year, as the first stage of determination of the communication route between society and technology, study was made on the concrete system image of practical technology. In this fiscal year, study was made entirely on preparation of the scenario for imaging the future economy and society concretely, modifying the planning of the hydrogen energy system. Through comparison of the scenario and system, the meaning and problem of the hydrogen energy technology were clarified. (NEDO)

Methodological progress in the development of scenarios for ENRESA-2000 Performance assessment exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cortes Martin, A.

2000-01-01

ENRESA is carrying out a new safety assessment exercise for a deep geological spent fuel disposal facility located in granite, known as ENRESA-2000. One of the main objectives of this safety analysis is the integration and implementation of all R and D studies performed to date by ENRESA, as well as the identification of those aspects of the assessment which require further investigation. One of the main activities of this exercise is the selection and development of the scenarios to be quantitatively analysed during the assessment, where a scenario is defined as a sufficient number of FEPs (ie relevant features, events and processes) as well as their influence relationships, which explain the behaviour of the disposal system. As a result of these three methods, a definitive list of FEPs will be obtained for the ENRESA-2000 exercise. Once grouped into scenarios, these FEPs will be used to model and calculate consequences. This process of generation and development of scenarios for the ENRESA-2000 performance assessment exercise is presented in this paper. (Author)

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-01-01

Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-07-01

Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

Supporting Problem Solving with Case-Stories Learning Scenario and Video-based Collaborative Learning Technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun Hu

2004-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that case-based resources, which are used for assisting cognition during problem solving, can be structured around the work of narratives in social cultural psychology. Theories and other research methods have proposed structures within narratives and stories which may be useful to the design of case-based resources. Moreover, embedded within cases are stories which are contextually rich, supporting the epistemological groundings of situated cognition. Therefore the purposes of this paper are to discuss possible frameworks of case-stories; derive design principles as to “what” constitutes a good case story or narrative; and suggest how technology can support story-based learning. We adopt video-based Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL technology to support problem solving with case-stories learning scenarios. Our hypothesis in this paper is that well-designed case-based resources are able to aid in the cognitive processes undergirding problem solving and meaning making. We also suggest the use of an emerging video-based collaborative learning technology to support such an instructional strategy.

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Anderson, Kevin L.; Shackley, Simon; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul

2008-01-01

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

2014-04-01

The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

Integrated Scenarios of Regional Development in Two Semi-Arid States of North-Eastern Brazil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.

2002-01-01

Scenario analysis of the future is an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid North-eastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative¿quantitative scenarios that show potential

Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation

Science.gov (United States)

Kecskes, Csaba

2002-05-01

In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

Development of FR fuel cycle in japan (1) development scope of fuel cycle technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, H.; Funasaka, H.; Namekawa, T.

2008-01-01

changed from 'Feasibility Study' to 'Development' and the new program was renamed the 'Fast Reactor Cycle Technology Development Project (FaCT Project)'. The objective of the FaCT Project is to develop each innovative technology for the mainline concept up to the level where we can judge its industrial applicability and to propose the conceptual design of demonstration and/or commercial facilities compatible with development goals by 2015.On the other hand it is very important to consider a transient period from LWR cycle to FR cycle. Old and new plants of LWR and FR fuel cycle will coexist in this period and we have to use these plants from the viewpoint of supply-demand balance of plutonium practically. Especially reprocessing for LWR and FR spent fuels have common technologies and its plutonium product is supplied to FR fuel. Therefore we will show assumed future scenarios on both fuel cycles and a development scope according to these scenarios properly. (authors)

Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2012-01-01

Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

2015-01-01

Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

Development of semiconductor ΔE-E detector chip using standard bipolar IC technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Vijay; Kataria, S.K.

2005-01-01

A proposal has been made for developing silicon based AE-E detector chip which can be used as particle identifiers in nuclear physics experiments and also in several applications in nuclear industry scenario. The proposed development work employs standard bipolar IC fabrication technology of Bharat Electronics Ltd. and the deliverable products that emerge out will be very cost effective. The present paper discusses the concept, feasibility studies and systematic plan for fabrication, characterization and packaging of the proposed detectors. (author)

Innovative method of RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klevas, Valentinas; Biekša, Kestutis; Murauskaitė, Lina

2014-01-01

Scarcity or abundance of energy resources usually depends on physical and geographical conditions in the region. However, the energy flow in the region also depends on the efficient use of energy resources, the consumption rate of energy and the possibility to use local renewable and non-renewable energy resources. Production, distribution and the use of energy resources in the region are the challenges for central and local government, business and social service, customers and other stakeholders. Development of regional energy economy should be optimized according to the available energy flow in the region using a network system analysis method, which provides solutions for developing sustainable energy economy models. The network system analysis method enables to optimize the use of local and renewable resources at the regional level and reveals available local energy resources. An efficient use of available regional resources and the use of renewable energy sources (RES) should be the main goals for the development of regional energy system. RES can compete with traditional fossil fuel with the condition that all hidden aspects are revealed. The network system analysis method enables to indicate energy flows in the region as well as indicate pros and cons of using renewable energy technologies. - Highlights: • RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios is done. • Innovative process network system (PNS) analysis method is used. • PNS method is used to optimize the use of local and renewable resources. • Analysis of energy flow in region using PNS method is done

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tegen, S.

2014-11-01

NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

Experience 2030. Four scenarios for the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aarts, P.; Breunesse, L.; Duijm, K.; Van Empel, F.; Van Erp, J.; Van Huffelen, A.; Veenstra, J.; Visser, H.; Sicking, C.; Bloemendaal, R.

2003-01-01

In four days several experts in the field of energy participated in a brainstorm session to discuss the future and the consequences for our energy supply and demand, energy sources and technology. In this book four scenarios are presented: (1) Voluntary Simplicity, characterized by austerity and solidarity; (2) Hyper Individualism, characterized by competitive activities for as much prosperity as possible; (3) Haves and Have-nots, based on geopolitical instability and a strong technological development, resulting even beyond a wider gap between rich and poor; and (4) Tribal Society, dominated by fear, distrust and less prosperity [nl

Transmutation Scenarios Impacts on Advanced Nuclear Cycles. Fabrication, Reprocessing and Transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saturnin, A.; Sarrat, P.; Hancok, H.; Milot, J.-F.; Duret, B.; Jasserand, F.; Fillastre, E.; Giffard, F.-X.; Chabert, C.; Van Den Durpel, L.; Caron-Charles, M.; Lefevre, J.C.; Carlier, B.; Arslan, M.; Favet, D.; Garzenne, C.; Barbrault, P.

2013-01-01

Conclusions: First detailed assessment of plants and transportation in various transmutation scenarios. In case of curium transmutation: large difficulties and uncertainties requiring whole new technology development (more pronounced for ADS option). For Am transmutation: more feasible, still to be demonstrated on specific points for industrial extrapolation

Summary of FY-1978 consultation input for Scenario Methodology Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, B.L.; Benson, G.L.; Craig, R.A.; Harwell, M.A.

1979-11-01

The Scenario Methodology Development task is concerned with evaluating the geologic system surrounding an underground repository and describing the phenomena (volcanic, seismic, meteorite, hydrologic, tectonic, climate, etc.) which could perturb the system and possibly cause loss of repository integrity. This document includes 14 individual papers. Separate abstracts were prepared for all 14 papers

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Exploring Architectures for Fast and Easy Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nadolski, Rob; Slootmaker, Aad; Hummel, Hans

2009-01-01

Nadolski, R. J., Slootmaker, A., & Hummel, H. G. K. (2009). Exploring Architectures for Fast and Easy Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios. Presentation given at Online Educa. December, 3-4, 2009, Berlin, Germany. [For Powerpoint-version of this presentation. Please

Science, technology and innovation policies for development the Latin American experience

CERN Document Server

Dutrénit, Gabriela

2014-01-01

This book examines the implementation of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy in eight Latin American countries and the different paths these policies have taken. It provides empirical evidence to examine the extent to which STI policies are contributing to the development of the region, as well as to the solution of market failures and the stimulus of the region’s innovation systems. Since the pioneering work of Solow (1957), it has been recognized that innovation is critical for economic growth both in developed and in less-developed countries. Unfortunately Latin America lags behind world trends, and although over the last 20 years the region has established a more stable and certain macroeconomic regime, it is also clear that these changes have not been enough to trigger a process of innovation and productivity to catch-up. Against this rather grim scenario there is some optimism emerging throughout the region. After many years of inaction the region has begun to invest in science, technology...

A scenario elicitation methodology to identify the drivers of electricity infrastructure cost in South America

Science.gov (United States)

Moksnes, Nandi; Taliotis, Constantinos; Broad, Oliver; de Moura, Gustavo; Howells, Mark

2017-04-01

Developing a set of scenarios to assess a proposed policy or future development pathways requires a certain level of information, as well as establishing the socio-economic context. As the future is difficult to predict, great care in defining the selected scenarios is needed. Even so it can be difficult to assess if the selected scenario is covering the possible solution space. Instead, this paper's methodology develops a large set of scenarios (324) in OSeMOSYS using the SAMBA 2.0 (South America Model Base) model to assess long-term electricity supply scenarios and applies a scenario-discovery statistical data mining algorithm, Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). By creating a multidimensional space, regions related to high and low cost can be identified as well as their key driver. The six key drivers are defined a priori in three (high, medium, low) or two levers (high, low): 1) Demand projected from GDP, population, urbanization and transport, 2) Fossil fuel price, 3) Climate change impact on hydropower, 4) Renewable technology learning rate, 5) Discount rate, 6) CO2 emission targets.

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

2012-01-01

Low carbon energy technologies are of increasing importance to India for reducing emissions and diversifying its energy supply mix. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model, this paper analyzes a targets approach for pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies in the Indian electricity generation sector from 2005 to 2095. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements, and expert opinions. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario, wind and nuclear technologies exceed respective targets in the long run without any subsidy push, while solar energy requires subsidy push throughout the century in order to meet its high targets. In the short run, nuclear energy also requires significant subsidy, including a much higher initial subsidy relative to solar power, which is a result of its higher targets. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies. Still, subsidy is required — especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. We also found that pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies leads to a decrease in share of CCS under the carbon price scenario and biomass under both the reference and carbon price scenarios. This is because low carbon technologies compete among themselves and substitute each other, thereby enhancing the need for subsidy or carbon price, highlighting that proposed targets are not set at efficient levels. In light of contemporary debate on external costs of nuclear energy, we also assess the sensitivity of the results to nuclear technology cost. We find that higher cost significantly decreases the share of nuclear power under both the reference and carbon price scenarios.

Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Schreiner, GO

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Romem

2007-07-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

Aircraft Emission Scenarios Projected in Year 2015 for the NASA Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) High Speed Civil Transport

Science.gov (United States)

Baughcum, Steven L.; Henderson, Stephen C.

1998-01-01

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCTs) on a universal airline network. Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The HSCT scenarios are calculated using the NASA technology concept airplane (TCA) and update an earlier report. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer pressure altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

Multi-scenario electromagnetic load analysis for CFETR and EAST magnet systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Weiwei; Liu, Xufeng, E-mail: lxf@ipp.ac.cn; Du, Shuangsong; Song, Yuntao

2017-01-15

Highlights: • A multi-scenario force-calculating simulator for Tokamak magnet system is developed using interaction matrix method. • The simulator is applied to EM analysis of CFETR and EAST magnet system. • The EM loads on CFETR magnet coils at different typical scenarios and the EM loads acting on magnet system of EAST as function of time for different shots are analyzed with the simulator. • Results indicate that the approach can be conveniently used for multi-scenario and real-time EM analysis of Tokamak magnet system. - Abstract: A technology for electromagnetic (EM) analysis of the current-carrying components in tokamaks has been proposed recently (Rozov, 2013; Rozov and Alekseev, 2015). According to this method, the EM loads can be obtained by a linear transform of given currents using the pre-computed interaction matrix. Based on this technology, a multi-scenario force-calculating simulator for Tokamak magnet system is developed using Fortran programming in this paper. And the simulator is applied to EM analysis of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) and Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) magnet system. The pre-computed EM interaction matrices of CFETR and EAST magnet system are implanted into the simulator, then the EM loads on CFETR magnet coils at different typical scenarios are evaluated with the simulator, and the comparison of the results with ANSYS method results validates the efficiency and accuracy of the method. Using the simulator, the EM loads acting on magnet system of EAST as function of time for different shots are further analyzed, and results indicate that the approach can be conveniently used for the real-time EM analysis of Tokamak magnet system.

Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

2016-12-01

This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Chen

Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

A scenario for interstellar exploration and its financing

CERN Document Server

Bignami, Giovanni F

2013-01-01

This book develops a credible scenario for interstellar exploration and colonization. In so doing, it examines: • the present situation and prospects for interstellar exploration technologies; • where to go: the search for habitable planets; • the motivations for space travel and colonization; • the financial mechanisms required to fund such enterprises. The final section of the book analyzes the uncertainties surrounding the presented scenario. The purpose of building a scenario is not only to pinpoint future events but also to highlight the uncertainties that may propel the future in different directions. Interstellar travel and colonization requires a civilization in which human beings see themselves as inhabitants of a single planet and in which global governance of these processes is conducted on a cooperative basis. The key question is, then, whether our present civilization is ready for such an endeavor, reflecting the fact that the critical uncertainties are political and cultural in nature. I...

The implications of technological learning on the prospects of specific renewable energy technologies in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uyterlinde, M.A.; De Vries, H.J.; Junginger, H.M.

2005-05-01

The objective of this chapter is to examine the impact of technological learning on the diffusion of specific renewable energy technologies into the electricity market of the EU-25 until 2020, using a market simulation model (ADMIRE REBUS). It is assumed that from 2012 a harmonized trading system for renewable energy certificates will be implemented. Also it is assumed that a target of 24% renewable electricity (RES-E) in 2020 is set and met. By comparing optimistic and pessimistic endogenous technological learning scenarios, it is found that the diffusion of onshore wind energy into the market is relatively robust, regardless of technological development. However the diffusion rates of offshore wind energy and biomass gasification greatly depend on their technological development. Competition between these two options and already existing biomass combustion options largely determines the overall costs of electricity from renewables and the choice of technologies for the individual member countries. In the optimistic learning scenario, in 2020 the market price for RES-E is 1 euroct/kWh lower than in the pessimistic scenario (about 7 vs. 8 euroct/kWh). As a result, the total expenditures for RES-E market stimulation are 30% lower in the optimistic scenario. For comparison, instead of introducing a harmonized trading system, also continuation of present policies to support renewables was evaluated, assuming that the member states of the EU can fulfil their ambition levels only by exploiting their domestic renewable energy potentials (i.e. exclusion of international trade). This would require many member states to use their offshore wind potential, making the diffusion of offshore wind much less dependent on both the rate of technological learning and competition from biomass options, compared to the harmonization policy scenario

Technological learning for carbon capture and sequestration technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riahi, Keywan; Rubin, Edward S.; Taylor, Margaret R.; Schrattenholzer, Leo; Hounshell, David

2004-01-01

This paper analyzes potentials of carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCT) in a set of long-term energy-economic-environmental scenarios based on alternative assumptions for technological progress of CCT. In order to get a reasonable guide to future technological progress in managing CO 2 emissions, we review past experience in controlling sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions from power plants. By doing so, we quantify a 'learning curve' for CCT, which describes the relationship between the improvement of costs due to accumulation of experience in CCT construction. We incorporate the learning curve into the energy-modeling framework MESSAGE-MACRO and develop greenhouse gas emissions scenarios of economic, demographic, and energy demand development, where alternative policy cases lead to the stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) by the end of the 21st century. We quantify three types of contributors to the carbon emissions mitigation: (1) demand reductions due to the increased price of energy, (2) fuel switching primarily away from coal, and (3) carbon capture and sequestration from fossil fuels. Due to the assumed technological learning, costs of the emissions reduction for CCT drop rapidly and in parallel with the massive introduction of CCT on the global scale. Compared to scenarios based on static cost assumptions for CCT, the contribution of carbon sequestration is about 50% higher in the case of learning, resulting in cumulative sequestration of CO 2 ranging from 150 to 250 billion (10 9 ) tons with carbon during the 21st century. Also, carbon values (tax) across scenarios (to meet the 550 ppmv carbon concentration constraint) are between 2% and 10% lower in the case of learning for CCT by 2100. The results illustrate that assumptions on technological change are a critical determinant of future characteristics of the energy system, indicating the importance of long-term technology policies in

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ke; Wang Can; Lu Xuedu; Chen Jining

2007-01-01

The international climate community has begun to assess a range of possible options for strengthening the international climate change effort after 2012. Analysis of the potential for sector-based emissions reduction and relevant mitigation options will provide the necessary background information for the debate. In order to assess the CO 2 abatement potential of China's steel industry, a model was developed using LEAP software to generate 3 different CO 2 emission scenarios for the industry from 2000 to 2030. The abatement potentials of different scenarios were compared, and their respective feasibilities were assessed according to the cost information. High priority abatement measures were then identified. The results show that the average CO 2 abatement per year in the Recent Policy scenario and in the New Policy scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 51 and 107 million tons, respectively. The corresponding total incremental costs are 9.34 and 80.95 billion dollars. It is concluded that there is great potential for CO 2 abatement in China's steel industry. Adjusting the structure of the industry and technological advancement will play an important role in emissions reduction. Successful implementation of current sustainable development policies and measures will result in CO 2 abatement at a low cost. However, to achieve higher levels of abatement, the cost will increase dramatically. In the near future, specific energy conservation technologies such as dry coke quenching, exhaust gas and heat recovery equipment will be of great significance. However, taking a long term perspective, emissions reduction will rely more on the adjustment of production processes and the application of more modern large scale plants. Advanced blast furnace technology will inevitably play an important role

Options for Gas-to-Liquids Technology in Alaska

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robertson, Eric Partridge

1999-10-01

The purposes of this work was to assess the effect of applying new technology to the economics of a proposed natural gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant, to evaluate the potential of a slower-paced, staged deployment of GTL technology, and to evaluate the effect of GTL placement of economics. Five scenarios were economically evaluated and compared: a no-major-gas-sales scenario, a gas-pipeline/LNG scenario, a fast-paced GTL development scenario, a slow-paced GTL development scenario, and a scenario which places the GTL plant in lower Alaska, instead of on the North Slope. Evaluations were completed using an after-tax discounted cash flow analysis. Results indicate that the slow-paced GTL scenario is the only one with a rate of return greater than 10 percent. The slow-paced GTL development would allow cost saving on subsequent expansions. These assumed savings, along with the lowering of the transportation tariff, combine to distinquish this option for marketing the North Slope gas from the other scenarios. Critical variables that need further consideration include the GTL plant cost, the GTL product premium, and operating and maintenance costs.

Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gambelli, Danilo; Alberti, Francesca; Solfanelli, Francesco; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele

2017-01-01

We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae. - Highlights: • Scenarios for Third generation biofuels are modelled by Bayesian networks. • Best and worst scenarios for year 2030 are presented. • The role of environmental policy is analysed. • Energy and food-feed markets influence the share of biofuels from micro-algae.

Population and development scenarios for EU neighbor countries in the South and East Mediterranean region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groenewold, W.G.F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

2014-01-01

This paper presents four population and development scenarios for 11 South and East Mediterranean countries (SEMC) for the period 2010-2050. Focus of analysis of scenario results is on working age population prospects, economic consequences, migration pressure in four migrant-sending SEMCs (Algeria,

Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Žiga Malek

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

Electricity and heat system development scenarios integrated in the energy system sustainable development in Romania in the period 2005 - 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marin, Otilia; Leca, Aureliu

2004-01-01

After 50 years of centralized economy, since 1989, Romania faces many challenges related to the internal conditions and to the new trends in energy markets over the world as: the existing low efficiency and availability, fast structural changes; the decentralization and privatization of the energy sector with new structures and entities; integration in EU and NATO structures. At present, with transition from the national vertical integrated monopolies to an open market, the determination of the global optimum development scenario of the power and heat sector becomes more important in order to find the policy which can lead the own strategies of different companies involved on market to a sustainable development of the society. The paper presents four long term development scenarios of the electricity and heat sector quantified from different points of view: technical, economical, environmental, social criteria, security of supply, risk diminishing etc and it continues by determining the long term global optimum development scenario integrated in the sustainable energy system. (authors)

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

Science.gov (United States)

Gates, W. R.

1983-02-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

Science.gov (United States)

Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghanem, Mohamed

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2013-01-01

Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Somoza-Cabrera

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harald Kling

2014-07-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

Using Scenario-based Business Modelling to Explore the 5G Telecommunication Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moqaddamerad, Sara; Ahokangas, Petri; Matinmikko, Marja

2017-01-01

Innovative technologies often alter established value chains and make traditional strategic planning methods inadequate. In this paper, we present the use of scenario-based business modelling to explore the market for the fifth generation mobile communication networks (5G). We discuss four...... scenarios that have been developed in a collaborative effort among different actors in the market. We then describe the approach to build business models and discuss lessons learned and benefits from the novel approach. This approach complements traditional techniques through providing a powerful platform...

Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

2007-05-15

Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

Smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0: Conceptual framework, scenarios, and future perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Pai; wang, Honghui; Sang, Zhiqian; Zhong, Ray Y.; Liu, Yongkui; Liu, Chao; Mubarok, Khamdi; Yu, Shiqiang; Xu, Xun

2018-06-01

Information and communication technology is undergoing rapid development, and many disruptive technologies, such as cloud computing, Internet of Things, big data, and artificial intelligence, have emerged. These technologies are permeating the manufacturing industry and enable the fusion of physical and virtual worlds through cyber-physical systems (CPS), which mark the advent of the fourth stage of industrial production (i.e., Industry 4.0). The widespread application of CPS in manufacturing environments renders manufacturing systems increasingly smart. To advance research on the implementation of Industry 4.0, this study examines smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0. First, a conceptual framework of smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0 is presented. Second, demonstrative scenarios that pertain to smart design, smart machining, smart control, smart monitoring, and smart scheduling, are presented. Key technologies and their possible applications to Industry 4.0 smart manufacturing systems are reviewed based on these demonstrative scenarios. Finally, challenges and future perspectives are identified and discussed.

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manns PJ

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

Technological and engineering challenges of fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maisonnier, David; Hayward, Jim

2008-01-01

The current fusion development scenario in Europe assumes the sequential achievement of key milestones. Firstly, the qualification of the DEMO/reactor physics basis in ITER, secondly, the qualification of materials for in-vessel components in IFMIF and, thirdly, the qualification of components and processes in DEMO. Although this scenario is constrained by budgetary considerations, it assumes the resolution of many challenges in physics, technology and engineering. In the first part of the paper, the technological and engineering challenges to be met in order to satisfy the current development scenario will be highlighted. These challenges will be met by an appropriate share of the work between ITER, IFMIF, DEMO and the necessary accompanying programme, which will have to include a number of dedicated facilities (e.g. for the development of H and CD systems). In the second part of the paper, the consequences of a considerable acceleration of the fusion development programme will be discussed. Although most of the technological and engineering challenges identified above will have to be met within a shorter timescale, it is possible to limit the requirements and expectation for a first fusion power plant with respect to those adopted for the current fusion development scenario. However, it must be recognised that such a strategy will inevitably result in increased risk and a reduction in the economy of the plant. (author)

Exploring Bioeconomy Growth through the Public Release of the Biomass Scenario Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biddy, Mary J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, Daniel J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC

2017-08-02

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is an important tool for exploring vibrant future bioeconomy scenarios that leverage domestic resources. Developed by NREL and BETO, this model of the domestic biofuels supply chain has been used to explore success strategies for BETO's activities towards bioeconomy growth. The BSM offers a robust test bed for detailed exploration of effects of BETO activities within the complex context of resource availability; physical, technological, and economic constraints; behavior; and policy. The public release of the model in 2017 will allow broad engagement with the theme of the conference as model users can analyze bioeconomy growth, domestic biomass resource use, and associated effects. The BSM is a carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the biomass to biofuels supply chain. Using a system dynamics simulation modeling approach, the model tracks long-term deployment of biofuels given technology development and investment, considering land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand, and government policies over time. Sample outputs include biofuels production, feedstock use, capital investment, incentives, and costs of feedstocks and fuels. BSM scenarios reveal technological, economic, and policy challenges, as well as opportunities for dynamic growth of the bioeconomy with strategic public and private investment at key points in the system. The model logic and results have been reviewed extensively, through collaborative analysis, expert reviews and external publications (https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/).

Impact of improved technology on industrial greenhouse-gas emissions in developing countries. Phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-06-01

In response to a formal request by the Group of 77 and China, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) initiated a study to identify opportunities to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from energy-intensive industries in developing countries. These sectors currently include iron and steel, petroleum refining, cement, paper and pulp and nitrogen fertilizers. The aim of this first phase was to describe: how energy is used in the energy-intensive industries in developing countries today; what current trends indicate for the future; the potential contribution of improved technologies and practices to moving toward more sustainable industrial production in developing countries, and to provide developing countries with an analytical tool for evaluating opportunities to limit industrial greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions in their industrial sectors through the transfer of improved technologies and processes. The immediate objectives of Phase 1 were twofold: to provide information to developing countries in the form of an inventory of energy-efficient, best-available technologies and processes that can be used to abate greenhouse-gas emissions in the most energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors as well as cross-cutting measures applicable in a range of sub-sectors, and; to provide an analytical methodology in the form of a software tool that enables the user to evaluate and compare the costs, energy requirements, and greenhouse-gas emissions associated with scenarios of specific technology and process options. To meet these objectives, the first phase of the study comprised: a Report entitled Industrial Greenhouse-gas Emissions from Developing Countries; a Software Package containing, an Industrial Technology Inventory, and an Analysis Tool, and; Industry/country-specific Case Studies. The Report describes current energy use and greenhouse-gas emissions in energy-intensive industries in developing countries, and similar industries exemplifying good

Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen R. Carpenter

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

Developing Learning Scenarios for Educational Web Radio: a Learning Design Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Triantafyllou, Evangelia; Liokou, Effrosyni; Economou, Anastasia

2018-01-01

schools. In this paper, we present a survey study that aimed to evaluate a Visual Learning Design (VLD) approach for developing educational scenari-os in web radio. The study results indicated that the VLD approach helped teachers to think about the educational aspects of the web radio production...

137Cs - Brachytherapy sources : a technology scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varma, R.N.

2001-01-01

Cancer has emerged as one of the major cause of morbidity and mortality all over the world. India houses world's second largest population and registers 4-5 lakhs new cancer cases every year. Cancer of cervix is most common form of malignancy among Indian women. Radiation therapy, especially intracavity brachytherapy in conjunction with other modalities like surgery, chemotherapy has been found to be highly effective for the management and control of cervical carcinoma at all stages. A technology has been developed indigenously for the fabrication of 137 Cs sources for brachytherapy applications

NASA's Exploration Technology Development Program Energy Storage Project Battery Technology Development

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Concha M.; Miller, Thomas B.; Mercer, Carolyn R.; Jankovsky, Amy L.

2010-01-01

Technical Interchange Meeting was held at Saft America s Research and Development facility in Cockeysville, Maryland on Sept 28th-29th, 2010. The meeting was attended by Saft, contractors who are developing battery component materials under contracts awarded through a NASA Research Announcement (NRA), and NASA. This briefing presents an overview of the components being developed by the contractor attendees for the NASA s High Energy (HE) and Ultra High Energy (UHE) cells. The transition of the advanced lithium-ion cell development project at NASA from the Exploration Technology Development Program Energy Storage Project to the Enabling Technology Development and Demonstration High Efficiency Space Power Systems Project, changes to deliverable hardware and schedule due to a reduced budget, and our roadmap to develop cells and provide periodic off-ramps for cell technology for demonstrations are discussed. This meeting gave the materials and cell developers the opportunity to discuss the intricacies of their materials and determine strategies to address any particulars of the technology.

Game-like Technology Innovation Education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Magnussen, Rikke

2011-01-01

  The aim of this paper is to discuss the first results and methodological challenges and perspectives of designing game-inspired scenarios for implementation of innovation processes into schools' science education. This paper comprises and report on a case study of a game-inspired innovation...... scenario designed for technology education in grades 7 - 9 in Danish schools. In the paper, methodological challenges of doing design-based research into technology innovation education are discussed. The preliminary results from the first studies of a game-inspired technology innovation camp are also...... presented, along with discussions of the future of development of these educational spaces....

Developing a Robust Strategy Map in Balanced Scorecard Model Using Scenario Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mostafa Jafari

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The key to successful strategy implementation in an organization is for people in the organization to understand it, which requires the establishment of complicated but vital processes whereby the intangible assets are converted into tangible outputs. In this regard, a strategy map is a useful tool that helps execute this difficult task. However, such maps are typically developed based on ambiguous cause-effect relationships that result from the extrapolation of past data and flawed links with possible futures. However, if the strategy map is a mere reflection of the status quo but not future conditions and does not embrace real-world uncertainties, it will endanger the organization since it posits that the current situation will continue. In order to compensate for this deficiency, the environmental scenarios affecting an organization were identified in the present study. Then the strategy map was developed in the form of a scenario-based balanced scorecard. Besides, the effect of environmental changes on the components of the strategy map was investigated using the strategy maps illustrated over time together with the corresponding cash flow vectors. Subsequently, a method was proposed to calculate the degree of robustness of every component of the strategy map for the contingency of every scenario. Finally, the results were applied to a post office.

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

Science.gov (United States)

Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

2018-03-06

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

Windows on the future using scenarios to envision the impact of future uncertainties on utility markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

This executive report introduces a creative approach to strategy development that begins with scenarios and ends with responsive customer business strategies. Created by EPRI and its research partners, this guided approach uses examples from a workshop in ''Scenario Planning.'' The workshop was sponsored by the Customer Systems Division (CSD) as part of its forward-looking plan to provide programs and services capable of meeting customer needs, shareholder expectations, and societal concerns in a changing world. To illustrate the approach, scenarios from EPRI's Customer 20/20 project are examined using contrasting views of the future structure of the industry -- ''incremental change'' and ''retail competition.'' The three scenarios-entitled Retreating Forward, American Renaissance, and Industrial Ecology -- are driven by plausible outcomes of economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory uncertainties. The benefits of creating scenarios and developing strategic responses are depicted in drawings that portray this innovative approach

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2018-04-01

Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

Performance of Agricultural Enterprises With Specialization Livestock Production After Year 2013 in the Context of CAP Development Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcela Basovníková

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Joining the EU, among others meant that Czech Republic has gained opportunity to draw financial funds of the EU. In the context of profitability and overall economic performance of agricultural enterprises, the most serious threat is currently reduction or even elimination of agricultural subsidies as came out from discussions about future development of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP already in 2011. In 2011, the CAP was a point of interest especially because of approaching the end of programme period of 2007–2013. During the last decade, the CAP has been reformed substantially while these reforms and changes reflect requirements of society connected to environment, to food quality and safety, and to developing needs of the EU´s economy. Based on these discussions across all the EU countries, three principal scenarios have been formulated in order to solve the main political objectives of future CAP. In each scenario, different stress is put on single objectives of the CAP. These three scenarios are the adjustment scenario, the integration scenario and the re-focus scenario. Changes of CAP, which were covered by single scenarios have been focused on market interventions, direct payment and on policy of rural areas development.

Development of burning plasma and advanced scenarios in the DIII-D tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luce, T.C.

2005-01-01

Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q ∼ 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque. (author)

Global Energy Scenarios to 2040. Understanding our energy future - 2016 Edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

The energy world is in rapid evolution, driven in particular by policy developments (like the INDCs agreed at COP-21) but also economic, geopolitical, technological as well as social considerations. Enerdata regularly produces scenario based energy outlooks to analyze and forecast the supply and demand of energy commodities, energy prices, as well as the impact of climate change and energy policies on energy markets and their consequences for the energy industry. After the COP-21 in Paris, Enerdata has again done such an exercise. The Ener-Blue scenario provides an outlook of energy systems up to 2040 based on the achievement of the 2030 targets defined in the INDCs as announced at the COP-21. Ener-Green explores the implications of more stringent energy and climate policies to limit the global temperature increase at around 1.5-2 deg. C by the end of the century. Finally, Ener-Brown describes a world with abundant fossil fuel resource and durably low energy prices, affecting the entire energy system over a long period. These different scenarios explore the consequences on energy supply and demand, energy mix, energy prices by fuel and region, as well as the implications on climate issues. In the Ener-Blue scenario, the future energy mix remains dominated by fossil fuels, but INDCs planned policies regarding climate mitigation, energy efficiency and renewable energy sources lead to a diversification towards other sources of energy. Among others, the EU successfully achieves its triple objective of its climate and energy package, while China and India expand their renewable capacities to achieve their renewable targets. Within this international context of climate coordinated policies, CO_2 emission growth slows down. However, the efforts defined in INDCs are not ambitious enough to limit the increase of the average global temperature to 2 deg. C in 2050, but these efforts are compatible with 3-4 deg. C objective. In the Ener-Green scenario, there is a clear

FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhiy Nozhenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Nassar, Nedal T.; Wilburn, David R.; Goonan, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

The United States has and will likely continue to obtain an increasing share of its electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, especially under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The need for additional solar PV modules and wind turbines will, among other things, result in greater demand for a number of minor metals that are produced mainly or only as byproducts. In this analysis, the quantities of 11 byproduct metals (Ag, Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, Ge, Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb) required for wind turbines with rare-earth permanent magnets and four solar PV technologies are assessed through the year 2040. Three key uncertainties (electricity generation capacities, technology market shares, and material intensities) are varied to develop 42 scenarios for each byproduct metal. The results indicate that byproduct metal requirements vary significantly across technologies, scenarios, and over time. In certain scenarios, the requirements are projected to become a significant portion of current primary production. This is especially the case for Te, Ge, Dy, In, and Tb under the more aggressive scenarios of increasing market share and conservative material intensities. Te and Dy are, perhaps, of most concern given their substitution limitations. In certain years, the differences in byproduct metal requirements between the technology market share and material intensity scenarios are greater than those between the various CPP and No CPP scenarios. Cumulatively across years 2016–2040, the various CPP scenarios are estimated to require 15–43% more byproduct metals than the No CPP scenario depending on the specific byproduct metal and scenario. Increasing primary production via enhanced recovery rates of the byproduct metals during the beneficiation and enrichment operations, improving end-of-life recycling rates, and developing substitutes are important strategies that may help meet the increased demand for these byproduct metals.

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

2018-03-15

Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

Plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in Sweden in 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Björkman, B.; Fridell, K.; Tavakol Olofsson, P.

2017-01-01

Introduction: Radiography is a healthcare speciality with many technical challenges. Advances in engineering and information technology applications may continue to drive and be driven by radiographers. The world of diagnostic imaging is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. To ensure sustainable development, organisations have to identify future opportunities and threats in a timely manner and incorporate them into their strategic planning. Hence, the aim of this study was to analyse and describe plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in 2025. Method: The study has a qualitative design with an inductive approach based on focus group interviews. The interviews were inspired by the Scenario-Planning method. Results: Of the seven trends identified in a previous study, the radiographers considered two as the most uncertain scenarios that would have the greatest impact on the profession should they occur. These trends, labelled “Access to career advancement” and “A sufficient number of radiographers”, were inserted into the scenario cross. The resulting four plausible future scenarios were: The happy radiographer, the specialist radiographer, the dying profession and the assembly line. Conclusion: It is suggested that “The dying profession” scenario could probably be turned in the opposite direction by facilitating career development opportunities for radiographers within the profession. Changing the direction would probably lead to a profession composed of “happy radiographers” who are specialists, proud of their profession and competent to carry out advanced tasks, in contrast to being solely occupied by “the assembly line”. - Highlights: • The world of radiography is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. • Future opportunities and threats should be identified and incorporated into the strategic planning. • Appropriate actions can probably change the

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

Development of RF Tools and Scenarios for ITER on JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noterdaeme, J.M.; Bobkov, V.; Mantsinen, M.; Salmi, A.; Santala, M.; Rantamaki, K.; Ekedahl, A.; Eriksson, L.G.; Lamalle, P.U.; Lyssoivan, A.; Van Eester, A.D.; Mailloux, J.; Monakhov, I.; Sharapov, S.; Mayoral, M.L.; Meo, F.

2005-01-01

The improvement of lower hybrid (LH) coupling with local puffing of D 2 gas, which made operation at ITER relevant distances (10 cm) and with ELMs (edge localized modes) a reality, has been extended to ITER- like plasma shapes with higher triangularity. With ICRF(ion cyclotron resonance frequency), we developed 4 tools such as -1) localized direct electron heating using the He 3 mode conversion scenario for electron heat transport studies, -2) the production of He 4 ions with energies in the MeV range by 3 ω c acceleration of beam injected ions at 120 keV to investigate Alfven instabilities and test α diagnostics, -3) the stabilisation and destabilization of sawteeth and -4) ICRF as as a wall conditioning. Several ITER relevant scenarios were tested. The (He 3 )H minority heating scenario, considered for the non-activated start-up phase of ITER, produces at very low concentration energetic He 3 which heat the electrons indirectly. For n(He 3 )/n e > 2%, the scenario is transformed to a mode conversion scenario where the electrons are heated directly. The (D)H minority heating is not accessible as the concentration of C 6+ dominates the wave propagation and always leads to a mode conversion. The minority heating of T in D is very effective heating for ions and producing neutrons. New results were obtained in several areas of ICRF physics. Experimental evidence confirmed the theoretical prediction that, as the Larmor radius increases beyond 0.5 times the perpendicular wavelength of the wave, the second harmonic acceleration of the ions decreases to very small levels. An exotic fusion reaction (pT) must be taken into account when evaluating neutron rates. The contribution of fast particles accelerated by ICRF to the plasma rotation was clearly identified, but it is only part of an underlying, and not yet understood, co-current plasma rotation. Progress was made in the physics of ELMs while their effect on the ICRF coupling could be minimized with the conjugate

Development of a global computable general equilibrium model coupled with detailed energy end-use technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Detailed energy end-use technology information is considered within a CGE model. • Aggregated macro results of the detailed model are similar to traditional model. • The detailed model shows unique characteristics in the household sector. - Abstract: A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model integrating detailed energy end-use technologies is developed in this paper. The paper (1) presents how energy end-use technologies are treated within the model and (2) analyzes the characteristics of the model’s behavior. Energy service demand and end-use technologies are explicitly considered, and the share of technologies is determined by a discrete probabilistic function, namely a Logit function, to meet the energy service demand. Coupling with detailed technology information enables the CGE model to have more realistic representation in the energy consumption. The proposed model in this paper is compared with the aggregated traditional model under the same assumptions in scenarios with and without mitigation roughly consistent with the two degree climate mitigation target. Although the results of aggregated energy supply and greenhouse gas emissions are similar, there are three main differences between the aggregated and the detailed technologies models. First, GDP losses in mitigation scenarios are lower in the detailed technology model (2.8% in 2050) as compared with the aggregated model (3.2%). Second, price elasticity and autonomous energy efficiency improvement are heterogeneous across regions and sectors in the detailed technology model, whereas the traditional aggregated model generally utilizes a single value for each of these variables. Third, the magnitude of emissions reduction and factors (energy intensity and carbon factor reduction) related to climate mitigation also varies among sectors in the detailed technology model. The household sector in the detailed technology model has a relatively higher reduction for both energy

CO2 mitigation scenarios in China's road transport sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Can; Cai, Wenjia; Lu, Xuedu; Chen, Jining

2007-01-01

China is the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter, and emissions from the road transport sector represent one of the fastest growing GHG sources in China. Taking previous research on China's projected future vehicle ownership and future CO 2 emissions in the transport sector as a starting point, this paper reviews all recent environmental policies relating to the automobile industry and employs a scenario analysis to estimate different emissions inventories for different development strategies. The new policy scenario considers all possible mitigation options available to the road transport sector from a bottom up perspective and examines the effects for fuel efficiency improvement and the cost of these mitigation options - vehicle technology improvement, bus rapid transit system and fuel switching, through which the carbon dioxide emissions reduction potential is estimated. Not only does this paper indicate that a large emissions reduction potential exists in China's road transport sector, but it implies that vehicle technology improvement, especially engine technology is likely to be the most effective means to meet emissions reduction targets. This paper concludes by identifying key barriers to implementing those options in China and deduces the technical, financial and institutional aspects of the demand in China for national capacity building and international aid in order to achieve the emissions reduction goals

Selecting Days for Concept and Technology Evaluation in SMART-NAS Test-Bed Scenario Generation, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Crown Consulting, Inc. will investigate and demonstrate methods to enable rapid selection of days for scenario generation in the development and evaluation of Air...

Scenarios for the development of the electricity economy in Continental Europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutschi, Christoph; Stigler, Heinz; Jagl, Alexander; Nischler, Gernot; Huber, Christoph; Bachhiesl, Udo

2010-09-15

ATLANTIS is a multi purpose scenario model for the investigation of effects in the electricity system of continental Europe. The model consists of a physical part for the simulation of power generation and load flow as well as an economic part for the investigation of power markets and the business development of generation and supply companies.

Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

2017-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo; Takase, Hiroyasu

2007-02-01

In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Bindschadler, Duane L.; Boyles, Carole A.

2008-01-01

The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

The European ITER test blanket modules: Progress in development of fabrication technologies towards standardization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zmitko, Milan, E-mail: milan.zmitko@f4e.europa.eu [Fusion for Energy (F4E), Josep Pla 2, Barcelona (Spain); Thomas, Noël [ATMOSTAT, F-94815 Villejuif (France); LiPuma, Antonella; Forest, Laurent [CEA-Saclay, DEN, DM2S, SEMT, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Cogneau, Laurence [CEA-DRT, 38000 Grenoble (France); Rey, Jörg; Neuberger, Heiko [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Postfach 3640, Karlsruhe (Germany); Poitevin, Yves [Fusion for Energy (F4E), Josep Pla 2, Barcelona (Spain)

2016-11-01

Highlights: • Significant progress on the development of welding procedures for European TBM achieved. • Fabrication processes feasibility based on diffusion and fusion welding demonstrated. • An optimized welding scenario/sequence for TBM box assembly identified. • Future qualification of pF/WPS proposed through realization of a number of QMUs. - Abstract: The paper reviews progress achieved in development of fabrication technologies and procedures applied for manufacturing of the TBM sub-components, like, HCLL and HCPB cooling plates, HCLL/HCPB stiffening plates, and HCLL/HCPB first wall and side caps. The used technologies are based on fusion and diffusion welding techniques taking into account specificities of the EUROFER97 steel. Development of a standardized procedure complying with professional codes and standards (RCC-MRx), a preliminary fabrication/welding procedure specification (pF/WPS), is described based on fabrication and non-destructive and destructive characterization of feasibility mock-ups (FMU) aimed at assessing the suitability of a fabrication process for fulfilling the design and fabrication specifications. The main FMUs characterization results are reported (e.g. pressure resistance and helium leak tightness tests, mechanical properties and microstructure at the weld joints, geometrical characteristics of the sub-components and internal cooling channels) and the key pF/WPS steps and parameters are outlined. Also, fabrication procedures for the TBM box assembly are presently under development for the establishment of an optimized assembly sequence/scenario and development of standardized welding procedure specifications. In conclusions, further steps towards the pF/WPS qualification are briefly discussed.

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

2016-01-01

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050 (Executive Summary)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

World Energy Council

2007-01-01

Transport is one of the major global consumers of energy, currently representing between 20 and 25 percent of aggregate energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. Strong growth in energy consumption to 2050 in all sectors, with the transport proportion projected to remain stable up to 2050. Transport therefore has an important role to lay in contributing to the primary objective of the World Energy Council: sustainable energy for all. Passenger vehicle technology is expected to remain dependent on petroleum fuels and internal combustion engines (ICE) for the foreseeable future, since these elements remain the most convenient and affordable for mass personal mobility. Enhancement of ICEs through clean diesels, hybrids and new combustion techniques will ensure increased efficiency, continuing the consistent historical annual improvement in vehicle efficiency. Policy makers must first agree on the overall objective, whether it be a reduction in energy consumption or greenhouse gas emissions. Technological development must be complemented by rational policy that will encourage and enable the technologies to emerge

The Application of Neutron Transport Green's Functions to Threat Scenario Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Thoreson, Gregory G.; Schneider, Erich A.; Armstrong, Hirotatsu; van der Hoeven, Christopher A.

2015-02-01

Radiation detectors provide deterrence and defense against nuclear smuggling attempts by scanning vehicles, ships, and pedestrians for radioactive material. Understanding detector performance is crucial to developing novel technologies, architectures, and alarm algorithms. Detection can be modeled through radiation transport simulations; however, modeling a spanning set of threat scenarios over the full transport phase-space is computationally challenging. Previous research has demonstrated Green's functions can simulate photon detector signals by decomposing the scenario space into independently simulated submodels. This paper presents decomposition methods for neutron and time-dependent transport. As a result, neutron detector signals produced from full forward transport simulations can be efficiently reconstructed by sequential application of submodel response functions.

Analysis of Value Chain Governance: Scenarios to Develop Small-Scale Furniture Producers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rika Harini Irawati

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Furniture industry had shown a long chain of production to consumption, from raw material producers (tree growers, semi-finished producers, finished product producers, and retailers to exporters. Jepara as a centre furniture industry in Indonesia incorporates around 15,000 business units and provide livelihoods to approximately 170,000 workers. This sector contributes about 27% of Jepara‘s people domestic income. Small and medium furniture enterprises (SMEs have significant roles in the furniture industry as production structures are characterized by them. Power and information imbalance throughout the furniture value chain have resulted in problems of uneven distribution of gains among actors of the industry. SME furniture producers have experienced an unfair value added distribution. Hence, development of SMEs is important for strengthening the industry and expected to result in a portion of value added distribution to them.  We are trying to develop scenarios for SME improvement in the furniture industry in Jepara by identifying their problems and implementing Value Chain Analysis (VCA. VCA is an approach to describe SME producer relations with other actors in the industry and the governance type of their relations. Data is collected by interviewing selected SMEs from the association of small scale producers in Jepara to get detailed maps of their value chain. The research will produce future scenarios and intervention points to improve small-scale producer sustainability and better value added distribution among furniture actors. The scenarios will not only benefit selected producers but also the furniture industry of Jepara, and can be adopted for similar industries throughout Indonesia and abroad. Keywords: furniture, value chain, governance, scenario, small-scale

Brokering technologies to realize the hydrology scenario in NSF BCube

Science.gov (United States)

Boldrini, Enrico; Easton, Zachary; Fuka, Daniel; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

2015-04-01

In the National Science Foundation (NSF) BCube project an international team composed of cyber infrastructure experts, geoscientists, social scientists and educators are working together to explore the use of brokering technologies, initially focusing on four domains: hydrology, oceans, polar, and weather. In the hydrology domain, environmental models are fundamental to understand the behaviour of hydrological systems. A specific model usually requires datasets coming from different disciplines for its initialization (e.g. elevation models from Earth observation, weather data from Atmospheric sciences, etc.). Scientific datasets are usually available on heterogeneous publishing services, such as inventory and access services (e.g. OGC Web Coverage Service, THREDDS Data Server, etc.). Indeed, datasets are published according to different protocols, moreover they usually come in different formats, resolutions, Coordinate Reference Systems (CRSs): in short different grid environments depending on the original data and the publishing service processing capabilities. Scientists can thus be impeded by the burden of discovery, access and normalize the desired datasets to the grid environment required by the model. These technological tasks of course divert scientists from their main, scientific goals. The use of GI-axe brokering framework has been experimented in a hydrology scenario where scientists needed to compare a particular hydrological model with two different input datasets (digital elevation models): - the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) dataset, v.2. - the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) dataset, v.3. These datasets were published by means of Hyrax Server technology, which can provide NetCDF files at their original resolution and CRS. Scientists had their model running on ArcGIS, so the main goal was to import the datasets using the available ArcPy library and have EPSG:4326 with the same resolution grid as the

A scenario approach to the energy-mix in the Netherlands. An outlook for the year 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraanje, I.M.M.

1996-08-01

The research in this thesis gives an answer to the question: What are the options for the energy mix for the Netherlands in 2025. The energy mix, however, depends on the total energy demand. A scenario approach is used to determine the total demand. The scenarios have been developed by identifying the most important and uncertain driving forces: Dutch economic development, Dutch government policy and the international political situation. Assigning different values to these driving forces have resulted in three scenarios: Market-forces-drive-on, Europe-rules, and Crusade-against-destruction. To quantify the energy demand for each of these scenarios, growth rates of the energy demand have been used of the European Union scenarios that match with our scenarios. Once the energy demand is known, the determination of the energy mix has been performed by answering three questions. First, what is the relative contribution of the different energy carriers (electricity, heat, fuel) in the demand of the end-user. Next, what kind of conversion technologies will be required. Finally, what type of energy sources can be the input for those conversion technologies. The scenarios developed in this study are instrumental in answering these questions. The sources construct the energy mix. The different options for the energy mix in 2025 show the following principal characteristics: The share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix stays limited (Market-forces-drive-on 7%, Europe-rules 13%, Crusade-against-destruction 4%); The share of fossil fuels remains large in all scenarios. Especially the dependence on natural gas stays large: Market-forces-drive-on 63%, Europe-rules 63%, Crusade-against-destruction 68%; The CO2-emissions will stabilize and amount with respect to 1994 (156 Mton) to: Market-forces-drive-on: + 11 Mton Europe-rules: 18 Mton Crusade-against-destruction: + 4 Mton. Finally, some comments are given on the current energy policy of the Dutch government. It is

Creating Inquiry Between Technology Developers and Civil Society Actors: Learning from Experiences Around Nanotechnology.

Science.gov (United States)

Krabbenborg, Lotte

2016-06-01

Engaging civil society actors as knowledgeable dialogue partners in the development and governance of emerging technologies is a new challenge. The starting point of this paper is the observation that the design and orchestration of current organized interaction events shows limitations, particularly in the articulation of issues and in learning how to address the indeterminacies that go with emerging technologies. This paper uses Dewey's notion of 'publics' and 'reflective inquiry' to outline ways of doing better and to develop requirements for a more productive involvement of civil society actors. By studying four novel spaces for interaction in the domain of nanotechnology, this paper examines whether and how elements of Dewey's thought are visible and under what conditions. One of the main findings is that, in our society, special efforts are needed in order for technology developers and civil society actors to engage in a joint inquiry on emerging nanotechnology. Third persons, like social scientists and philosophers, play a role in this respect in addition to external input such as empirically informed scenarios and somewhat protected spaces.

Prospects for carbon capture and sequestration technologies assuming their technological learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riahi, Keywan; Rubin, Edward S.; Schrattenholzer, Leo

2004-01-01

This paper analyzes potentials of carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCS) in a set of long-term energy-economic-environmental scenarios based on alternative assumptions for technological progress of CCS. In order to get a reasonable guide to future technological progress in managing CO 2 emissions, we review past experience in controlling sulfur dioxide emissions (SO 2 ) from power plants. By doing so, we quantify a 'learning curve' for CCS, which describes the relationship between the improvement of costs due to accumulation of experience in CCS construction. We incorporate the learning curve into the energy modeling framework MESSAGE-MACRO and develop greenhouse gas emissions scenarios of economic, demographic, and energy demand development, where alternative policy cases lead to the stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) by the end of the 21st century. Due to the assumed technological learning, costs of the emissions reduction for CCS drop rapidly and in parallel with the massive introduction of CCS on the global scale. Compared to scenarios based on static cost assumptions for CCS, the contribution of carbon sequestration is about 50 percent higher in the case of learning resulting in cumulative sequestration of CO 2 ranging from 150 to 250 billion (10 9 ) tons carbon during the 21st century. The results illustrate that carbon capture and sequestration is one of the obvious priority candidates for long-term technology policies and enhanced R and D efforts to hedge against the risk associated with high environmental impacts of climate change

Development of Beam Utilization Technologies and Support for Users

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kyeryung; Jung, Myunghwan; Noh, Yongoh; Lee, Sooyeon; Kim, Hyukwook; Kil, Jaekeun; Lee, Nayoung; Ra, Sekin; Lee, Miejeen; Kim, Sora

2013-02-01

The Final goals are to achieve the 2nd goals of the Proton Engineering Frontier Project, development of proton beam utilization technologies, to incubate the potential users, and to develop fundamental technologies. Based on these achievements, we are going to enhance the accelerator utilization and maximize contribution to the local society after accelerator construction completion. For the these goals, we were operating user program reflecting the results of 3rd step planning. We support 38 small projects during 2 years. As results of activation of beam utilization, we acquired 768 users at the end of 2012. We survey proton beam technology proposals, individuals and institutions participation letter of intent through the research of 'Planning of a support program for both basic research by using accelerator and manpower cultivation'. And inaugurated KOPUA (Korea Proton Accelerator User Association) on March 28, 2012 with 152 members. We secured experimental conditions at TR23 and TR103 and reflected in the target room design and operation scenarios via investigate the requirements. Through these requirements, we make a remote sample transfer system, beam regulating system, hot cell and sample transport container. Moreover, we develop proton beam technologies such as in-vivo proton beam irradiation system, comparison of the biological effects for pulse beam and continuous beam, basic experiments for the metal nanopaticle synthesis, research for radioactivatied samples and devices, conceptual design and calculation for neutron source target and calculation of the isotope production yield. Proton accelerator can be utilized in a variety of field, including NT, BT, IT, ST, ET, Nuclear, medical, and some of the user facilities required were constructed through this project, Experience for the construction and operation of these facilities can be reflected to the construction of the rest 8 target room of proton accelerator center

District-Scale Green Infrastructure Scenarios for the Zidell Development Site, City of Portland

Science.gov (United States)

The report outlines technical assistance to develop green infrastructure scenarios for the Zidell Yards site consistent with the constraints of a recently remediated brownfield that can be implemented within a 15-20 year time horizon.

Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pregger, Thomas; Nitsch, Joachim; Naegler, Tobias

2013-01-01

The transformation of the energy supply in Germany (the “Energiewende”) as described in the German Federal government’s ‘Energy Concept’ (Energiekonzept, 2010) is based on a political consensus about long-term targets for energy efficiency and renewable energies. The aim of this article is to present a consistent scenario for this transformation process reflecting the long-term implementation of renewable energies and the possible future structure of the German energy system as a whole. Structural and economic effects of this development are derived and discussed. It summarizes results of scenario analyses done by the department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center as part of a three-year research project for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. The underlying study provides a detailed data base reflecting a long-term roadmap for the energy system transformation in Germany. The scenarios show that the policy targets are consistent and can be achieved, if appropriate policy measures are to be implemented. The economic analysis shows the amount of investments and the strong market dynamics required for new generation technologies but also the huge economic benefits that can result from this development path in terms of fuel cost savings and lower fuel imports. - Highlights: • Long-term scenario for the German energy system according to the political targets. • Comparison of three variants with differing developments of the fleets of vehicles. • Analysis of economic effects: investments, generation and differential costs. • Importance of strategies in the sectors electricity, heat, and transportation. • Recommended measures for the successful implementation of the CO 2 reductions

Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riccardo Melen

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

Costs involved in the expansion of renewable energies. A meta-analysis of scenarios; Kosten des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien. Eine Metaanalyse von Szenarien

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pahle, Michael; Knopf, Brigitte; Tietjen, Oliver; Schmid, Eva [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany)

2012-09-15

This study investigates current scenarios for a long-term transformation of the energy system towards high shares of renewable energy sources (RES) with a focus the associated costs. The scenarios include different regional scopes (Germany, Europe, and World) and were selected according to the following criteria: a minimum share of 80% RES electricity production in the power sector in 2050 and relevance in the public debate. Total transformation costs consist of a number of components, and scenarios are selective in terms of covered components as well as applied methodologies. For that reason total transformation costs are not comparable across scenarios. This can only be done for specific investment costs of RES technologies, which all scenarios rely on and treat in a consistent manner. Moreover, it can be assumed that specific investment costs are an essential driver of total transition costs. The essential mechanism for the development of future specific investment costs is the ''learning'' inherent to RES technologies. It is most widely used in the form of learning-by-doing, which assumes that specific investment costs decrease with increasing cumulated installed capacity. In fact, all investigated scenarios take account of learning-by-doing, by which the costs of all technologies are reduced until 2050. The largest reductions occur for solar energy (PV), which has abundant worldwide potential and a still relatively low degree of technological maturity. In contrast, the smallest reductions occur for wind energy (onshore), which is already mature and where expected technological progress is thus limited. Regarding capacity deployment, another relevant factor is the economic potential available in the respective region. They give rise to wind energy as the major technology in Germany, whereas solar energy dominates on the global level. For Europe the situation is more ambiguous, but solar energy is always an important option in case imports

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

1995-01-01

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems - 15483

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuznetsov, V.; Fesenko, G.

2015-01-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21. century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled 'Global scenarios' is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21. century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries' different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies. (authors)

The Scenario Approach to the Development of Regional Waste Management Systems (Implementation Experience in the Regions of Russia)

Science.gov (United States)

Fomin, Eugene P.; Alekseev, Audrey A.; Fomina, Natalia E.; Dorozhkin, Vladimir E.

2016-01-01

The article illustrates a theoretical approach to scenario modeling of economic indicators of regional waste management system. The method includes a three-iterative algorithm that allows the executive authorities and investors to take a decision on logistics, bulk, technological and economic parameters of the formation of the regional long-term…

Scenarios for the hierarchical evaluation of the global sustainability of electric generator plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roldan A, M.C.; Martinez F, M.

2007-01-01

The AHP multi criteria method was applied (Analytic Hierarchy Process-Analytic process of Hierarchization) to evaluate the sustainability in the whole life cycle of the electricity generation technologies (hydroelectric, carboelectric, thermoelectric natural fuel oil, natural gas thermoelectric, geothermal, nucleo electric, wind electric, photo thermic and photovoltaic) with the purpose of offering an useful method in the taking of decisions to impel the sustainable development. Eight scenarios are analyzed. The results in most of the scenarios reflect the benefit of the renewable energy: the hydroelectric energy, photo thermic and wind driven its are those more sustainable. To reach the sustainable development in Mexico, the energy politicians should be more near to the use of the renewable energy. (Author)

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

Science.gov (United States)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.