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Sample records for syntaxin-1a predicts determinants

  1. Homology with vesicle fusion mediator syntaxin-1a predicts determinants ofepimorphin/syntaxin-2 function in mammary epithelial morphogenesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Connie S.; Nelson, Celeste M.; Khauv, Davitte; Bennett, Simone; Radisky, Evette S.; Hirai, Yohei; Bissell, Mina J.; Radisky, Derek C.

    2009-06-03

    We have shown that branching morphogenesis of mammary ductal structures requires the action of the morphogen epimorphin/syntaxin-2. Epimorphin, originally identified as an extracellular molecule, is identical to syntaxin-2, an intracellular molecule that is a member of the extensively investigated syntaxin family of proteins that mediate vesicle trafficking. We show here that although epimorphin/syntaxin-2 is highly homologous to syntaxin-1a, only epimorphin/syntaxin-2 can stimulate mammary branching morphogenesis. We construct a homology model of epimorphin/syntaxin-2 based on the published structure of syntaxin-1a, and we use this model to identify the structural motif responsible for the morphogenic activity. We identify four residues located within the cleft between helices B and C that differ between syntaxin-1a and epimorphin/syntaxin-2; through site-directed mutagenesis of these four amino acids, we confer the properties of epimorphin for cell adhesion, gene activation, and branching morphogenesis onto the inactive syntaxin-1a template. These results provide a dramatic demonstration of the use of structural information about one molecule to define a functional motif of a second molecule that is related at the sequence level but highly divergent functionally.

  2. Dynamical Organization of Syntaxin-1A at the Presynaptic Active Zone.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Ullrich

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Synaptic vesicle fusion is mediated by SNARE proteins forming in between synaptic vesicle (v-SNARE and plasma membrane (t-SNARE, one of which is Syntaxin-1A. Although exocytosis mainly occurs at active zones, Syntaxin-1A appears to cover the entire neuronal membrane. By using STED super-resolution light microscopy and image analysis of Drosophila neuro-muscular junctions, we show that Syntaxin-1A clusters are more abundant and have an increased size at active zones. A computational particle-based model of syntaxin cluster formation and dynamics is developed. The model is parametrized to reproduce Syntaxin cluster-size distributions found by STED analysis, and successfully reproduces existing FRAP results. The model shows that the neuronal membrane is adjusted in a way to strike a balance between having most syntaxins stored in large clusters, while still keeping a mobile fraction of syntaxins free or in small clusters that can efficiently search the membrane or be traded between clusters. This balance is subtle and can be shifted toward almost no clustering and almost complete clustering by modifying the syntaxin interaction energy on the order of only 1 kBT. This capability appears to be exploited at active zones. The larger active-zone syntaxin clusters are more stable and provide regions of high docking and fusion capability, whereas the smaller clusters outside may serve as flexible reserve pool or sites of spontaneous ectopic release.

  3. A part of patients with autism spectrum disorder has haploidy of HPC-1/syntaxin1A gene that possibly causes behavioral disturbance as in experimentally gene ablated mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kofuji, Takefumi; Hayashi, Yuko; Fujiwara, Tomonori; Sanada, Masumi; Tamaru, Masao; Akagawa, Kimio

    2017-03-22

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is highly heritable and encompasses a various set of neuropsychiatric disorders with a wide-ranging presentation. HPC-1/syntaxin1A (STX1A) encodes a neuronal plasma membrane protein that regulates the secretion of neurotransmitters and neuromodulators. STX1A gene ablated mice (null and heterozygote mutant) exhibit abnormal behavioral profiles similar to human autistic symptoms, accompanied by reduction of monoamine secretion. To determine whether copy number variation of STX1A gene and the change of its expression correlate with ASD as in STX1A gene ablated mice, we performed copy number assay and real-time quantitative RT-PCR using blood or saliva samples from ASD patients. We found that some ASD patients were haploid for the STX1A gene similar to STX1A heterozygote mutant mice. However, copy number of STX1A gene was normal in the parents and siblings of ASD patients with STX1A gene haploidy. In ASD patients with gene haploidy, STX1A mRNA expression was reduced to about half of their parents. Thus, a part of ASD patients had haploidy of STX1A gene and lower STX1A gene expression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. The interaction of mammalian Class C Vps with nSec-1/Munc18-a and syntaxin 1A regulates pre-synaptic release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Bong Yoon; Sahara, Yoshinori; Yamamoto, Akitsugu; Kominami, Eiki; Kohsaka, Shinichi; Akazawa, Chihiro

    2006-01-01

    Membrane docking and fusion in neurons is a highly regulated process requiring the participation of a large number of SNAREs (soluble N-ethylmaleimide sensitive factor attachment protein receptors) and SNARE-interacting proteins. We found that mammalian Class C Vps protein complex associated specifically with nSec-1/Munc18-a, and syntaxin 1A both in vivo and in vitro. In contrast, VAMP2 and SNAP-25, other neuronal core complex proteins, did not interact. When co-transfected with the human growth hormone (hGH) reporter gene, mammalian Class C Vps proteins enhanced Ca 2+ -dependent exocytosis, which was abolished by the Ca 2+ -channel blocker nifedipine. In hippocampal primary cultures, the lentivirus-mediated overexpression of hVps18 increased asynchronous spontaneous synaptic release without changing mEPSCs. These results indicate that mammalian Class C Vps proteins are involved in the regulation of membrane docking and fusion through an interaction with neuronal specific SNARE molecules, nSec-1/Munc18-a and syntaxin 1A

  5. A Predictive Framework for Determining How Journalists Determine News.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudino, James L.

    To determine how to articulate a concrete definition of the substance of the journalist's occupation, this paper offers a propositional framework of news value based on Kurt Lewin's gatekeeper model. First, the paper follows the established suggestion that news decisions are best studied from a gatekeeping perspective or that "news is…

  6. Syntaxin 1A interaction with the dopamine transporter promotes amphetamine-induced dopamine efflux

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Binda, Francesca; Dipace, Concetta; Bowton, Erica

    2008-01-01

    of the dopamine (DA) transporter (DAT) as the site of direct interaction with SYN1A. Amphetamine (AMPH) increases the association of SYN1A with human DAT (hDAT) in a heterologous expression system (hDAT cells) and with native DAT in murine striatal synaptosomes. Immunoprecipitation of DAT from the biotinylated...

  7. Predictive analysis effectiveness in determining the epidemic disease infected area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Najihah; Akhir, Nur Shazwani Md.; Hassan, Fadratul Hafinaz

    2017-10-01

    Epidemic disease outbreak had caused nowadays community to raise their great concern over the infectious disease controlling, preventing and handling methods to diminish the disease dissemination percentage and infected area. Backpropagation method was used for the counter measure and prediction analysis of the epidemic disease. The predictive analysis based on the backpropagation method can be determine via machine learning process that promotes the artificial intelligent in pattern recognition, statistics and features selection. This computational learning process will be integrated with data mining by measuring the score output as the classifier to the given set of input features through classification technique. The classification technique is the features selection of the disease dissemination factors that likely have strong interconnection between each other in causing infectious disease outbreaks. The predictive analysis of epidemic disease in determining the infected area was introduced in this preliminary study by using the backpropagation method in observation of other's findings. This study will classify the epidemic disease dissemination factors as the features for weight adjustment on the prediction of epidemic disease outbreaks. Through this preliminary study, the predictive analysis is proven to be effective method in determining the epidemic disease infected area by minimizing the error value through the features classification.

  8. Combining specificity determining and conserved residues improves functional site prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gelfand Mikhail S

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Predicting the location of functionally important sites from protein sequence and/or structure is a long-standing problem in computational biology. Most current approaches make use of sequence conservation, assuming that amino acid residues conserved within a protein family are most likely to be functionally important. Most often these approaches do not consider many residues that act to define specific sub-functions within a family, or they make no distinction between residues important for function and those more relevant for maintaining structure (e.g. in the hydrophobic core. Many protein families bind and/or act on a variety of ligands, meaning that conserved residues often only bind a common ligand sub-structure or perform general catalytic activities. Results Here we present a novel method for functional site prediction based on identification of conserved positions, as well as those responsible for determining ligand specificity. We define Specificity-Determining Positions (SDPs, as those occupied by conserved residues within sub-groups of proteins in a family having a common specificity, but differ between groups, and are thus likely to account for specific recognition events. We benchmark the approach on enzyme families of known 3D structure with bound substrates, and find that in nearly all families residues predicted by SDPsite are in contact with the bound substrate, and that the addition of SDPs significantly improves functional site prediction accuracy. We apply SDPsite to various families of proteins containing known three-dimensional structures, but lacking clear functional annotations, and discusse several illustrative examples. Conclusion The results suggest a better means to predict functional details for the thousands of protein structures determined prior to a clear understanding of molecular function.

  9. System for prediction and determination of the sub critic multiplication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, Aquilino S.; Pereira, Valmir; Silva, Fernando C. da

    1997-01-01

    It is presented a concept of a system which may be used to calculate and anticipate the subcritical multiplication of a PWR nuclear power plant. The system is divided into two different modules. The first module allows the theoretical prediction of the subcritical multiplication factor through the solution of the multigroup diffusion equation. The second module determines this factor based on the data acquired from the neutron detectors of a NPP external nuclear detection system. (author). 3 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  10. Determining the prediction limits of models and classifiers with applications for disruption prediction in JET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, A.; Peluso, E.; Vega, J.; Gelfusa, M.; Lungaroni, M.; Gaudio, P.; Martínez, F. J.; Contributors, JET

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the many aspects of tokamak physics requires the development of quite sophisticated models. Moreover, in the operation of the devices, prediction of the future evolution of discharges can be of crucial importance, particularly in the case of the prediction of disruptions, which can cause serious damage to various parts of the machine. The determination of the limits of predictability is therefore an important issue for modelling, classifying and forecasting. In all these cases, once a certain level of performance has been reached, the question typically arises as to whether all the information available in the data has been exploited, or whether there are still margins for improvement of the tools being developed. In this paper, a theoretical information approach is proposed to address this issue. The excellent properties of the developed indicator, called the prediction factor (PF), have been proved with the help of a series of numerical tests. Its application to some typical behaviour relating to macroscopic instabilities in tokamaks has shown very positive results. The prediction factor has also been used to assess the performance of disruption predictors running in real time in the JET system, including the one systematically deployed in the feedback loop for mitigation purposes. The main conclusion is that the most advanced predictors basically exploit all the information contained in the locked mode signal on which they are based. Therefore, qualitative improvements in disruption prediction performance in JET would need the processing of additional signals, probably profiles.

  11. Predicting skin sensitizers with confidence - Using conformal prediction to determine applicability domain of GARD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forreryd, Andy; Norinder, Ulf; Lindberg, Tim; Lindstedt, Malin

    2018-04-01

    GARD - Genomic Allergen Rapid Detection is a cell based alternative to animal testing for identification of skin sensitizers. The assay is based on a biomarker signature comprising 200 genes measured in an in vitro model of dendritic cells following chemical stimulations, and consistently reports predictive performances ~90% for classification of external test sets. Within the field of in vitro skin sensitization testing, definition of applicability domain is often neglected by test developers, and assays are often considered applicable across the entire chemical space. This study complements previous assessments of model performance with an estimate of confidence in individual classifications, as well as a statistically valid determination of the applicability domain for the GARD assay. Conformal prediction was implemented into current GARD protocols, and a large external test dataset (n = 70) was classified at a confidence level of 85%, to generate a valid model with a balanced accuracy of 88%, with none of the tested chemical reactivity domains identified as outside the applicability domain of the assay. In conclusion, results presented in this study complement previously reported predictive performances of GARD with a statistically valid assessment of uncertainty in each individual prediction, thus allowing for classification of skin sensitizers with confidence. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Determinants and Prediction of Esterase Substrate Promiscuity Patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Martínez, Mónica; Coscolín, Cristina; Santiago, Gerard; Chow, Jennifer; Stogios, Peter J; Bargiela, Rafael; Gertler, Christoph; Navarro-Fernández, José; Bollinger, Alexander; Thies, Stephan; Méndez-García, Celia; Popovic, Ana; Brown, Greg; Chernikova, Tatyana N; García-Moyano, Antonio; Bjerga, Gro E K; Pérez-García, Pablo; Hai, Tran; Del Pozo, Mercedes V; Stokke, Runar; Steen, Ida H; Cui, Hong; Xu, Xiaohui; Nocek, Boguslaw P; Alcaide, María; Distaso, Marco; Mesa, Victoria; Peláez, Ana I; Sánchez, Jesús; Buchholz, Patrick C F; Pleiss, Jürgen; Fernández-Guerra, Antonio; Glöckner, Frank O; Golyshina, Olga V; Yakimov, Michail M; Savchenko, Alexei; Jaeger, Karl-Erich; Yakunin, Alexander F; Streit, Wolfgang R; Golyshin, Peter N; Guallar, Víctor; Ferrer, Manuel; The Inmare Consortium

    2018-01-19

    Esterases receive special attention because of their wide distribution in biological systems and environments and their importance for physiology and chemical synthesis. The prediction of esterases' substrate promiscuity level from sequence data and the molecular reasons why certain such enzymes are more promiscuous than others remain to be elucidated. This limits the surveillance of the sequence space for esterases potentially leading to new versatile biocatalysts and new insights into their role in cellular function. Here, we performed an extensive analysis of the substrate spectra of 145 phylogenetically and environmentally diverse microbial esterases, when tested with 96 diverse esters. We determined the primary factors shaping their substrate range by analyzing substrate range patterns in combination with structural analysis and protein-ligand simulations. We found a structural parameter that helps rank (classify) the promiscuity level of esterases from sequence data at 94% accuracy. This parameter, the active site effective volume, exemplifies the topology of the catalytic environment by measuring the active site cavity volume corrected by the relative solvent accessible surface area (SASA) of the catalytic triad. Sequences encoding esterases with active site effective volumes (cavity volume/SASA) above a threshold show greater substrate spectra, which can be further extended in combination with phylogenetic data. This measure provides also a valuable tool for interrogating substrates capable of being converted. This measure, found to be transferred to phosphatases of the haloalkanoic acid dehalogenase superfamily and possibly other enzymatic systems, represents a powerful tool for low-cost bioprospecting for esterases with broad substrate ranges, in large scale sequence data sets.

  13. Some Determinants of Latent Inhibition in Human Predictive Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineno, Oskar; de la Casa, Luis Gonzalo; Lubow, R. E.; Miller, Ralph R.

    2006-01-01

    The present experiments assessed the effects of different manipulations between cue preexposure and cue-outcome pairings on latent inhibition (LI) in a predictive learning task with human participants. To facilitate LI, preexposure and acquisition with the target cues took place while participants performed a secondary task. Presentation of…

  14. Improving Fermi Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrina, Matthew A.; Newman, Clark P.; Slojkowski, Steven E.; Carpenter, J. Russell

    2014-01-01

    Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecraft's ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45% improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

  15. What determines drug solubility in lipid vehicles: is it predictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rane, Sagar S; Anderson, Bradley D

    2008-03-17

    Lipid-based drug delivery systems are of increasing interest to the pharmaceutical scientist because of their potential to solubilize drug molecules that may be otherwise difficult to develop. The ability to predict lipid solubility is an important step in being able to identify the right excipients to solubilize and formulate drugs in lipid formulations. However, predicting lipid solubility is complicated by the fact that interfacial effects may play a dominant role in these mixtures and the solubility may be affected by the microstructure (microemulsions, emulsions, oily solutions, etc.), as well as by the physicochemical properties of the oil, surfactant, co-solvent, and the drug. This review illustrates the fundamental factors that govern solubility in lipid mixtures and discusses models built at varying levels of sophistication to estimate the solubility. Examples from the literature are presented that demonstrate the application of these models, how their choice is related to the drug/lipid employed, and the challenges involved in solubility prediction. New data on the role water plays in altering lipid solubility, not only through its interaction with the solute, but also by changing the structure of lipids by promoting lipid organization are highlighted. The available data demonstrate that a rational understanding of solubilization in lipids is a worthwhile pursuit and models to predict at least the relative solubility from chemical structure have potential. Prediction of absolute solubility is more difficult as it requires knowledge of the drug's escaping tendency from the crystalline state. In recent years, it has become amply clear that for polar solutes, specific interactions are a critical factor governing solubility. Methods that can better take into account the specific as well as non-specific interactions between the solute and solvent, and the lipid microstructure, hold considerable promise for the future.

  16. You said you would! The predictability of other's behavior from their intentions determines predictive biases in action perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Matthew; Bach, Patric; Nicholson, Toby

    2018-02-01

    The perception of an action is shifted farther along the observed trajectory if the observer has prior knowledge of the actor's intention. This intention-action prediction effect is explained by predictive perception models, wherein sensory input is interpreted in light of expectancies. This study altered the precision of the prediction by varying the predictability of the action from the intention, to increase/decrease the predictive perceptual bias. Participants heard an actor state an intention ("I'll take it"/"I'll leave it") before the actor reached or withdrew from an object, thus confirming or contradicting the intention. The intention was predictive of the action (75% congruency) for one group and counterpredictive (25%) for another. The action disappeared midmovement and participants estimated the disappearance position. The intention-action prediction effect was greater if the intention was predictive than if counterpredictive. However, participants needed to explicitly know the predictability rates (Experiments 1 and 3). No group differences emerged when both groups believed the intention was nonpredictive (Experiment 2a), nor when a nonpredictive intention was believed to be (counter)predictive (Experiment 2b). The perception of others behavior is determined by its predictability from their intentions, and the precision of our social predictions is adapted to individual differences in behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Predictive value of ventilatory inflection points determined under field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyde, Christian; Mahler, Hubert; Roecker, Kai; Gollhofer, Albert

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive potential provided by two ventilatory inflection points (VIP1 and VIP2) examined in field without using gas analysis systems and uncomfortable facemasks. A calibrated respiratory inductance plethysmograph (RIP) and a computerised routine were utilised, respectively, to derive ventilation and to detect VIP1 and VIP2 during a standardised field ramp test on a 400 m running track on 81 participants. In addition, average running speed of a competitive 1000 m run (S1k) was observed as criterion. The predictive value of running speed at VIP1 (SVIP1) and the speed range between VIP1 and VIP2 in relation to VIP2 (VIPSPAN) was analysed via regression analysis. VIPSPAN rather than running speed at VIP2 (SVIP2) was operationalised as a predictor to consider the covariance between SVIP1 and SVIP2. SVIP1 and VIPSPAN, respectively, provided 58.9% and 22.9% of explained variance in regard to S1k. Considering covariance, the timing of two ventilatory inflection points provides predictive value in regard to a competitive 1000 m run. This is the first study to apply computerised detection of ventilatory inflection points in a field setting independent on measurements of the respiratory gas exchange and without using any facemasks.

  18. Health and Maintenance Status Determination and Predictive Fault Diagnosis System, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this project is to demonstrate intelligent health and maintenance status determination and predictive fault diagnosis techniques for NASA rocket...

  19. Predictive model for determining the quality of a call

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voznak, M.; Rozhon, J.; Partila, P.; Safarik, J.; Mikulec, M.; Mehic, M.

    2014-05-01

    In this paper the predictive model for speech quality estimation is described. This model allows its user to gain the information about the speech quality in VoIP networks without the need of performing the actual call and the consecutive time consuming sound file evaluation. This rapidly increases usability of the speech quality measurement especially in high load networks, where the actual processing of all calls is rendered difficult or even impossible. This model can reach its results that are highly conformant with the PESQ algorithm only based on the network state parameters that are easily obtainable by the commonly used software tools. Experiments were carried out to investigate whether different languages (English, Czech) have an effect on perceived voice quality for the same network conditions and the language factor was incorporated directly into the model.

  20. SDR: a database of predicted specificity-determining residues in proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald, Jason E; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

    2009-01-01

    The specificity-determining residue database (SDR database) presents residue positions where mutations are predicted to have changed protein function in large protein families. Because the database pre-calculates predictions on existing protein sequence alignments, users can quickly find the predictions by selecting the appropriate protein family or searching by protein sequence. Predictions can be used to guide mutagenesis or to gain a better understanding of specificity changes in a protein family. The database is available on the web at http://paradox.harvard.edu/sdr.

  1. SOLUBILITY PREDICTION OF SULFONAMIDES AT VARIOUS TEMPERATURES USING A SINGLE DETERMINATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JALAL HANAEE

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Solubility of sulphamethoxazole, sulphisoxazole and sulphasalazine in six solvents namely water,methanol, ethanol, 1-propanol, acetone and chloroform were determined at 15, 25, 37 and 45 °C. Two models derived from the Hildebrand solubility approach are proposed for solubility prediction at different temperatures using a single determination. The experimental data of the present work as well as data gathered from the literature have been employed to investigate the accuracy and prediction capability of the proposed models. The overall percent deviations between the predicted and experimental values were 10.78 and 14.63% which were comparable to those of the classical two and three parameter models. The proposed models were much superior to the two pure predictive models i.e., the ones which do not require experimental solubility determination, as the overall percent deviations produced by the latter models were 150.09 and 161.00%.

  2. Genetic determinants of freckle occurrence in the Spanish population: Towards ephelides prediction from human DNA samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernando, Barbara; Ibañez, Maria Victoria; Deserio-Cuesta, Julio Alberto; Soria-Navarro, Raquel; Vilar-Sastre, Inca; Martinez-Cadenas, Conrado

    2018-03-01

    Prediction of human pigmentation traits, one of the most differentiable externally visible characteristics among individuals, from biological samples represents a useful tool in the field of forensic DNA phenotyping. In spite of freckling being a relatively common pigmentation characteristic in Europeans, little is known about the genetic basis of this largely genetically determined phenotype in southern European populations. In this work, we explored the predictive capacity of eight freckle and sunlight sensitivity-related genes in 458 individuals (266 non-freckled controls and 192 freckled cases) from Spain. Four loci were associated with freckling (MC1R, IRF4, ASIP and BNC2), and female sex was also found to be a predictive factor for having a freckling phenotype in our population. After identifying the most informative genetic variants responsible for human ephelides occurrence in our sample set, we developed a DNA-based freckle prediction model using a multivariate regression approach. Once developed, the capabilities of the prediction model were tested by a repeated 10-fold cross-validation approach. The proportion of correctly predicted individuals using the DNA-based freckle prediction model was 74.13%. The implementation of sex into the DNA-based freckle prediction model slightly improved the overall prediction accuracy by 2.19% (76.32%). Further evaluation of the newly-generated prediction model was performed by assessing the model's performance in a new cohort of 212 Spanish individuals, reaching a classification success rate of 74.61%. Validation of this prediction model may be carried out in larger populations, including samples from different European populations. Further research to validate and improve this newly-generated freckle prediction model will be needed before its forensic application. Together with DNA tests already validated for eye and hair colour prediction, this freckle prediction model may lead to a substantially more detailed

  3. A Deep Space Orbit Determination Software: Overview and Event Prediction Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Youngkwang; Park, Sang-Young; Lee, Eunji; Kim, Minsik

    2017-06-01

    This paper presents an overview of deep space orbit determination software (DSODS), as well as validation and verification results on its event prediction capabilities. DSODS was developed in the MATLAB object-oriented programming environment to support the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) mission. DSODS has three major capabilities: celestial event prediction for spacecraft, orbit determination with deep space network (DSN) tracking data, and DSN tracking data simulation. To achieve its functionality requirements, DSODS consists of four modules: orbit propagation (OP), event prediction (EP), data simulation (DS), and orbit determination (OD) modules. This paper explains the highest-level data flows between modules in event prediction, orbit determination, and tracking data simulation processes. Furthermore, to address the event prediction capability of DSODS, this paper introduces OP and EP modules. The role of the OP module is to handle time and coordinate system conversions, to propagate spacecraft trajectories, and to handle the ephemerides of spacecraft and celestial bodies. Currently, the OP module utilizes the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) as a third-party software component for highfidelity deep space propagation, as well as time and coordinate system conversions. The role of the EP module is to predict celestial events, including eclipses, and ground station visibilities, and this paper presents the functionality requirements of the EP module. The validation and verification results show that, for most cases, event prediction errors were less than 10 millisec when compared with flight proven mission analysis tools such as GMAT and Systems Tool Kit (STK). Thus, we conclude that DSODS is capable of predicting events for the KPLO in real mission applications.

  4. Life Prediction/Reliability Data of Glass-Ceramic Material Determined for Radome Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    Brittle materials, ceramics, are candidate materials for a variety of structural applications for a wide range of temperatures. However, the process of slow crack growth, occurring in any loading configuration, limits the service life of structural components. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the slow crack growth parameters required for component life prediction using an appropriate test methodology. This test methodology also should be useful in determining the influence of component processing and composition variables on the slow crack growth behavior of newly developed or existing materials, thereby allowing the component processing and composition to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. Through the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), the authors recently developed two test methods to determine the life prediction parameters of ceramics. The two test standards, ASTM 1368 for room temperature and ASTM C 1465 for elevated temperatures, were published in the 2001 Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01. Briefly, the test method employs constant stress-rate (or dynamic fatigue) testing to determine flexural strengths as a function of the applied stress rate. The merit of this test method lies in its simplicity: strengths are measured in a routine manner in flexure at four or more applied stress rates with an appropriate number of test specimens at each applied stress rate. The slow crack growth parameters necessary for life prediction are then determined from a simple relationship between the strength and the applied stress rate. Extensive life prediction testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center using the developed ASTM C 1368 test method to determine the life prediction parameters of a glass-ceramic material that the Navy will use for radome applications.

  5. The primacy of doubt: Evolution of numerical weather prediction from determinism to probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Tim

    2017-06-01

    Over the last 25 years, the focus of operational numerical weather prediction has evolved from that of estimating the most likely evolution of weather to that of estimating probability distributions of future weather associated with inevitable uncertainties in both initial conditions and model equations. This evolution from determinism to uncertainty has not only increased the scientific rigor of weather prediction, it has also increased the value of weather forecasts for users. In addition, it has opened up a new approach to solving the equations of motion, likely to be of importance for both weather and climate prediction in an age where high-performance computing is limited by power consumption. However, despite all this, the numerical weather prediction community has yet to embrace fully the concept of the primacy of doubt. It is now time to take the final step in this direction.

  6. On determining the prediction limits of mathematical models for time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peluso, E.; Gelfusa, M.; Lungaroni, M.; Talebzadeh, S.; Gaudio, P.; Murari, A.; Contributors, JET

    2016-01-01

    Prediction is one of the main objectives of scientific analysis and it refers to both modelling and forecasting. The determination of the limits of predictability is an important issue of both theoretical and practical relevance. In the case of modelling time series, reached a certain level in performance in either modelling or prediction, it is often important to assess whether all the information available in the data has been exploited or whether there are still margins for improvement of the tools being developed. In this paper, an information theoretic approach is proposed to address this issue and quantify the quality of the models and/or predictions. The excellent properties of the proposed indicator have been proved with the help of a systematic series of numerical tests and a concrete example of extreme relevance for nuclear fusion.

  7. Development of computer code for determining prediction parameters of radionuclide migration in soil layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, Hiromichi; Ohnuki, Toshihiko

    1986-07-01

    A computer code (MIGSTEM-FIT) has been developed to determine the prediction parameters, retardation factor, water flow velocity, dispersion coefficient, etc., of radionuclide migration in soil layer from the concentration distribution of radionuclide in soil layer or in effluent. In this code, the solution of the predicting equation for radionuclide migration is compared with the concentration distribution measured, and the most adequate values of parameter can be determined by the flexible tolerance method. The validity of finite differential method, which was one of the method to solve the predicting equation, was confirmed by comparison with the analytical solution, and also the validity of fitting method was confirmed by the fitting of the concentration distribution calculated from known parameters. From the examination about the error, it was found that the error of the parameter obtained by using this code was smaller than that of the concentration distribution measured. (author)

  8. Determination of lower and upper bounds of predicted production from history-matched models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Essen, G. M.; Kahrobaei, S.S.; van Oeveren, H.; van den Hof, P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2016-01-01

    We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to

  9. Profiling healthy eaters: determining factors that predict healthy eating practices among Dutch adults

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swan, E.; Bouwman, L.; Hiddink, G.J.; Aarts, N.; Koelen, M.

    2015-01-01

    Research has identified multiple factors that predict unhealthy eating practices. However what remains poorly understood are factors that promote healthy eating practices. This study aimed to determine a set of factors that represent a profile of healthy eaters. This research applied Antonovsky's

  10. Correlation and Predictive Relationship between Self-Determination Instruction and Academic Performance of Students with Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Pen-Chiang; Chou, Yu-Chi

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation and probable predictive relationship between self-determination skills taught by special education teachers and the academic performance of students with disabilities from junior high schools in Taiwan. The subjects included teachers from resource rooms and self-contained classrooms (n =…

  11. Profiling healthy eaters. Determining factors that predict healthy eating practices among Dutch adults

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swan, E.C.; Bouwman, L.I.; Hiddink, G.J.; Aarts, N.; Koelen, M.

    2015-01-01

    Research has identified multiple factors that predict unhealthy eating practices. However what remains poorly understood are factors that promote healthy eating practices. This study aimed to determine a set of factors that represent a profile of healthy eaters. This research applied Antonovsky's

  12. Integrating Self-Determination and Job Demands-Resources Theory in Predicting Mental Health Provider Burnout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreison, Kimberly C; White, Dominique A; Bauer, Sarah M; Salyers, Michelle P; McGuire, Alan B

    2018-01-01

    Limited progress has been made in reducing burnout in mental health professionals. Accordingly, we identified factors that might protect against burnout and could be productive focal areas for future interventions. Guided by self-determination theory, we examined whether supervisor autonomy support, self-efficacy, and staff cohesion predict provider burnout. 358 staff from 13 agencies completed surveys. Higher levels of supervisor autonomy support, self-efficacy, and staff cohesion were predictive of lower burnout, even after accounting for job demands. Although administrators may be limited in their ability to reduce job demands, our findings suggest that increasing core job resources may be a viable alternative.

  13. Determination of Constructs and Dimensions of Employability Skills Based Work Performance Prediction: A Triangular Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Rahmat, Normala; Buntat, Yahya; Ayub, Abdul Rahman

    2015-01-01

    The level of the employability skills of the graduates as determined by job role and mapped to the employability skills, which correspond to the requirement of employers, will have significant impact on the graduates’ job performance. The main objective of this study was to identify the constructs and dimensions of employability skills, which can predict the work performance of electronic polytechnic graduate in electrical and electronics industry. A triangular qualitative approach was used i...

  14. A prospective analysis of physical examination findings in the diagnosis of facial fractures: Determining predictive value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timashpolsky, Alisa; Dagum, Alexander B; Sayeed, Syed M; Romeiser, Jamie L; Rosenfeld, Elisheva A; Conkling, Nicole

    2016-01-01

    There are >150,000 patient visits per year to emergency rooms for facial trauma. The reliability of a computed tomography (CT) scan has made it the primary modality for diagnosing facial skeletal injury, with the physical examination playing more a cursory role. Knowing the predictive value of physical findings in facial skeletal injuries may enable more appropriate use of imaging and health care resources. A blinded prospective study was undertaken to assess the predictive value of physical examination findings in detecting maxillofacial fracture in trauma patients, and in determining whether a patient will require surgical intervention. Over a four-month period, the authors' team examined patients admitted with facial trauma to the emergency department of their hospital. The evaluating physician completed a standardized physical examination evaluation form indicating the physical findings. Corresponding CT scans and surgical records were then reviewed, and the results recorded by a plastic surgeon who was blinded to the results of the physical examination. A total of 57 patients met the inclusion criteria; there were 44 male and 13 female patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of grouped physical examination findings were determined in major areas. In further analysis, specific examination findings with n≥9 (15%) were also reported. The data demonstrated a high negative predictive value of at least 90% for orbital floor, zygomatic, mandibular and nasal bone fractures compared with CT scan. Furthermore, none of the patients who did not have a physical examination finding for a particular facial fracture required surgery for that fracture. Thus, the instrument performed well at ruling out fractures in these areas when there were none. Ultimately, these results may help reduce unnecessary radiation and costly imaging in patients with facial trauma without facial fractures.

  15. Application of Response Surface Methods To Determine Conditions for Optimal Genomic Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Réka; Carriquiry, Alicia L.; Beavis, William D.

    2017-01-01

    An epistatic genetic architecture can have a significant impact on prediction accuracies of genomic prediction (GP) methods. Machine learning methods predict traits comprised of epistatic genetic architectures more accurately than statistical methods based on additive mixed linear models. The differences between these types of GP methods suggest a diagnostic for revealing genetic architectures underlying traits of interest. In addition to genetic architecture, the performance of GP methods may be influenced by the sample size of the training population, the number of QTL, and the proportion of phenotypic variability due to genotypic variability (heritability). Possible values for these factors and the number of combinations of the factor levels that influence the performance of GP methods can be large. Thus, efficient methods for identifying combinations of factor levels that produce most accurate GPs is needed. Herein, we employ response surface methods (RSMs) to find the experimental conditions that produce the most accurate GPs. We illustrate RSM with an example of simulated doubled haploid populations and identify the combination of factors that maximize the difference between prediction accuracies of best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) and support vector machine (SVM) GP methods. The greatest impact on the response is due to the genetic architecture of the population, heritability of the trait, and the sample size. When epistasis is responsible for all of the genotypic variance and heritability is equal to one and the sample size of the training population is large, the advantage of using the SVM method vs. the BLUP method is greatest. However, except for values close to the maximum, most of the response surface shows little difference between the methods. We also determined that the conditions resulting in the greatest prediction accuracy for BLUP occurred when genetic architecture consists solely of additive effects, and heritability is equal to one. PMID

  16. Disentangling evolutionary signals: conservation, specificity determining positions and coevolution. Implication for catalytic residue prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teppa, Elin; Wilkins, Angela D.; Nielsen, Morten

    2012-01-01

    within a multiple sequence alignment to investigate their predictive potential and degree of overlap. Results: Our results demonstrate that the different methods included in the benchmark in general can be divided into three groups with a limited mutual overlap. One group containing real-value...... Evolutionary Trace (rvET) methods and conservation, another containing mutual information (MI) methods, and the last containing methods designed explicitly for the identification of specificity determining positions (SDPs): integer-value Evolutionary Trace (ivET), SDPfox, and XDET. In terms of prediction of CR......, we find using a proximity score integrating structural information (as the sum of the scores of residues located within a given distance of the residue in question) that only the methods from the first two groups displayed a reliable performance. Next, we investigated to what degree proximity scores...

  17. High plasma omentin predicts cardiovascular events independently from the presence and extent of angiographically determined atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saely, Christoph H; Leiherer, Andreas; Muendlein, Axel; Vonbank, Alexander; Rein, Philipp; Geiger, Kathrin; Malin, Cornelia; Drexel, Heinz

    2016-01-01

    No prospective data on the power of the adipocytokine omentin to predict cardiovascular events are available. We aimed at investigating i) the association of plasma omentin with cardiometabolic risk markers, ii) its association with angiographically determined coronary atherosclerosis, and iii) its power to predict cardiovascular events. We measured plasma omentin in 295 patients undergoing coronary angiography for the evaluation of established or suspected stable coronary artery disease (CAD), of whom 161 had significant CAD with coronary artery stenoses ≥50% and 134 did not have significant CAD. Over 3.5 years, 17.6% of our patients suffered cardiovascular events, corresponding to an annual event rate of 5.0%. At baseline, plasma omentin was not significantly associated with metabolic syndrome stigmata and did not differ significantly between patients with and subjects without significant CAD (17.2 ± 13.6 ng/ml vs. 17.5 ± 15.1 ng/ml; p = 0.783). Prospectively, however, cardiovascular event risk significantly increased over tertiles of omentin (12.1%, 13.8%, and 29.5%, for tertiles 1 through 3; ptrend = 0.003), and omentin as a continuous variable significantly predicted cardiovascular events after adjustment for age, gender, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and smoking (standardized adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.41 [95% CI 1.16-1.72]; p < 0.001), as well as after additional adjustment for the presence and extent of significant CAD at baseline (HR 1.59 [95% CI 1.29-1.97, p < 0.001). From this first prospective evaluation of the cardiovascular risk associated with omentin we conclude that elevated plasma omentin significantly predicts cardiovascular events independently from the presence and extent of angiographically determined baseline CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Prediction of detailed enzyme functions and identification of specificity determining residues by random forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chioko Nagao

    Full Text Available Determining enzyme functions is essential for a thorough understanding of cellular processes. Although many prediction methods have been developed, it remains a significant challenge to predict enzyme functions at the fourth-digit level of the Enzyme Commission numbers. Functional specificity of enzymes often changes drastically by mutations of a small number of residues and therefore, information about these critical residues can potentially help discriminate detailed functions. However, because these residues must be identified by mutagenesis experiments, the available information is limited, and the lack of experimentally verified specificity determining residues (SDRs has hindered the development of detailed function prediction methods and computational identification of SDRs. Here we present a novel method for predicting enzyme functions by random forests, EFPrf, along with a set of putative SDRs, the random forests derived SDRs (rf-SDRs. EFPrf consists of a set of binary predictors for enzymes in each CATH superfamily and the rf-SDRs are the residue positions corresponding to the most highly contributing attributes obtained from each predictor. EFPrf showed a precision of 0.98 and a recall of 0.89 in a cross-validated benchmark assessment. The rf-SDRs included many residues, whose importance for specificity had been validated experimentally. The analysis of the rf-SDRs revealed both a general tendency that functionally diverged superfamilies tend to include more active site residues in their rf-SDRs than in less diverged superfamilies, and superfamily-specific conservation patterns of each functional residue. EFPrf and the rf-SDRs will be an effective tool for annotating enzyme functions and for understanding how enzyme functions have diverged within each superfamily.

  19. Prediction of Detailed Enzyme Functions and Identification of Specificity Determining Residues by Random Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagao, Chioko; Nagano, Nozomi; Mizuguchi, Kenji

    2014-01-01

    Determining enzyme functions is essential for a thorough understanding of cellular processes. Although many prediction methods have been developed, it remains a significant challenge to predict enzyme functions at the fourth-digit level of the Enzyme Commission numbers. Functional specificity of enzymes often changes drastically by mutations of a small number of residues and therefore, information about these critical residues can potentially help discriminate detailed functions. However, because these residues must be identified by mutagenesis experiments, the available information is limited, and the lack of experimentally verified specificity determining residues (SDRs) has hindered the development of detailed function prediction methods and computational identification of SDRs. Here we present a novel method for predicting enzyme functions by random forests, EFPrf, along with a set of putative SDRs, the random forests derived SDRs (rf-SDRs). EFPrf consists of a set of binary predictors for enzymes in each CATH superfamily and the rf-SDRs are the residue positions corresponding to the most highly contributing attributes obtained from each predictor. EFPrf showed a precision of 0.98 and a recall of 0.89 in a cross-validated benchmark assessment. The rf-SDRs included many residues, whose importance for specificity had been validated experimentally. The analysis of the rf-SDRs revealed both a general tendency that functionally diverged superfamilies tend to include more active site residues in their rf-SDRs than in less diverged superfamilies, and superfamily-specific conservation patterns of each functional residue. EFPrf and the rf-SDRs will be an effective tool for annotating enzyme functions and for understanding how enzyme functions have diverged within each superfamily. PMID:24416252

  20. Determining Infiltration Rates and Predicting Building Occupancy Using CO2 Concentration Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Parsons

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Demand controlled ventilation (DCV reduces energy loss by reducing the air exchange flow rate to the minimum required to maintain acceptable indoor air quality (IAQ. DCV commonly uses carbon dioxide (CO2 as a proxy for human activity and increases the ventilation rate once a preset CO2 threshold is exceeded. Significant improvements over threshold based ODV strategies are possible if the natural infiltration rate of the building is measured and the occupancy schedule determined by analysing the CO2 concentration continuously. These calculated parameters allow mathematical modeling of the ventilated space and the determination of future CO2 concentrations and allow prediction of future ventilation demands. The natural infiltration rate and the onset and duration of vacancy periods in a residential dwelling were determined by analysing CO2 concentration data. Concentration declines which fit an exponential decay curve with a correlation coefficient >0.90 identified all vacancy periods. The measured natural infiltration rate was found statistically correlated with average wind speed. A dynamic predicted occupancy map was constructed that has the potential to facilitate significant energy savings via deferred ventilation and intelligent cooling and heating strategies.

  1. Peculiarities and problems of determination of the predicted durability term of steel constructions coatings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Андрій Іванович Ковальов

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The subject of predicted durability term of steel constructions coatings using accelerated tests and experimental determination of steel constructions coatings fire-resistance after weather testings is raised in the article. The benefits and drawbacks of steel constructions in present-day building industry and construction design are introduced. The factors influencing steel constructions fire resistance increase are presented. The article shows that the most advanced and ideal for the protection of steel constructions is using the agents that expand and blow up under the temperature influence, forming thus a porous structure on the surface to be protected. The stages to receive the necessary indexes of predicted durability term of steel constructions coatings as well as methods to carry out climate tests both in the heated and unheated premises are described. For experimental determination of steel constructions coatings fire resistance it is suggested to use the method based on the experimental determination of the temperature of a steel plate with fire-resistant coating in the conditions of high temperatures typical of a fire, and on the solution of inverse and direct tasks of heat conduction for determination of thermal and physical characteristics of fire-resistant coatings and dependence of minimum coating thickness on the thickness of the steel plate, durability of fire impact and the steel critical temperature value. It is concluded that there is the necessity to develop the methodological support that makes it possible to estimate the coatings fire-resistance after or in the process of carrying out the accelerated climate tests as compared to the control examples. The list of problems that come into being while determining the steel constructions coatings fire-resistance after the climate tests is distinguished as well as the purpose of the future researches and tasks that should be solved

  2. Predictive modelling for shelf life determination of nutricereal based fermented baby food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasane, Prasad; Jha, Alok; Sharma, Nitya

    2015-08-01

    A shelf life model based on storage temperatures was developed for a nutricereal based fermented baby food formulation. The formulated baby food samples were packaged and stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C for a test storage period of 180 days. A shelf life study was conducted using consumer and semi-trained panels, along with chemical analysis (moisture and acidity). The chemical parameters (moisture and titratable acidity) were found inadequate in determining the shelf life of the formulated product. Weibull hazard analysis was used to determine the shelf life of the product based on sensory evaluation. Considering 25 and 50 % rejection probability, the shelf life of the baby food formulation was predicted to be 98 and 322 days, 84 and 271 days, 71 and 221 days and 58 and 171 days for the samples stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C, respectively. A shelf life equation was proposed using the rejection times obtained from the consumer study. Finally, the formulated baby food samples were subjected to microbial analysis for the predicted shelf life period and were found microbiologically safe for consumption during the storage period of 360 days.

  3. Computational tools for experimental determination and theoretical prediction of protein structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Donoghue, S.; Rost, B.

    1995-12-31

    This tutorial was one of eight tutorials selected to be presented at the Third International Conference on Intelligent Systems for Molecular Biology which was held in the United Kingdom from July 16 to 19, 1995. The authors intend to review the state of the art in the experimental determination of protein 3D structure (focus on nuclear magnetic resonance), and in the theoretical prediction of protein function and of protein structure in 1D, 2D and 3D from sequence. All the atomic resolution structures determined so far have been derived from either X-ray crystallography (the majority so far) or Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) Spectroscopy (becoming increasingly more important). The authors briefly describe the physical methods behind both of these techniques; the major computational methods involved will be covered in some detail. They highlight parallels and differences between the methods, and also the current limitations. Special emphasis will be given to techniques which have application to ab initio structure prediction. Large scale sequencing techniques increase the gap between the number of known proteins sequences and that of known protein structures. They describe the scope and principles of methods that contribute successfully to closing that gap. Emphasis will be given on the specification of adequate testing procedures to validate such methods.

  4. Determination of gestational time and prediction of parturition in dogs and cats: an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beccaglia, M; Alonge, S; Trovo', C; Luvoni, G C

    2016-09-01

    Accurate prediction of delivery date in canine and feline allows a better management of parturition, reducing the loss of neonates. This review evaluates the most common methods adopted to accurately predict the day of delivery: determination of ovulation and hormonal assays, first appearance of embryonic/foetal structures using ultrasound or radiography, echographic measurement of extra-foetal and foetal structures, or evaluation of foetal flux and heart rate. Determination of ovulation and hormonal assays at the time of breeding and close to pregnancy term is widely used to predict parturition in dogs (Concannon et al. American Journal of Veterinary Research 44, 1983, 1819; Hayer et al. Journal of Reproduction and Fertility, Suppl. 47, 1993, 93; Hase et al. Journal of Veterinary Medical Science, 62, 2000, 243; Kutzler et al. Theriogenology, 60, 2003a, 1187). In cats, some studies have been carried out, but no hormonal parameters for accurate prediction of parturition have been described so far (Buff et al. Journal of Reproduction and Fertility, Suppl. 57, 2001, 187; De Haas van Dorsser et al. Biology of Reproduction, 74, 2006, 1090; DiGangi et al. Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, 237, 2010, 1267; Dehnhard et al. Theriogenology, 77, 2012, 1088). Many studies suggested that gestational timing can be obtained by observation using ultrasound or radiography of specific structures in relation to the time of appearance during gestation (Concannon and Rendano American Journal of Veterinary Research, 44, 1983, 1506; Rendano et al. Veterinary Radiology, 25, 1984, 132; Shille and Gontarek Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, 187, 1985, 1021; Davidson et al. Veterinary Radiology, 27, 1986, 109; England et al. Journal of Small Animal Practice, 31, 1990, 324; Yeager et al. American Journal of Veterinary Research, 53, 1992, 342; Zambelli et al. Theriogenology, 57, 2002a, 1981; Zambelli et al. Journal of Feline Medicine and

  5. Predictive models to determine imagery strategies employed by children to judge hand laterality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruijt, Steffie; Jongsma, Marijtje L A; van der Kamp, John; Steenbergen, Bert

    2015-01-01

    A commonly used paradigm to study motor imagery is the hand laterality judgment task. The present study aimed to determine which strategies young children employ to successfully perform this task. Children of 5 to 8 years old (N = 92) judged laterality of back and palm view hand pictures in different rotation angles. Response accuracy and response duration were registered. Response durations of the trials with a correct judgment were fitted to a-priori defined predictive sinusoid models, representing different strategies to successfully perform the hand laterality judgment task. The first model predicted systematic changes in response duration as a function of rotation angle of the displayed hand. The second model predicted that response durations are affected by biomechanical constraints of hand rotation. If observed data could be best described by the first model, this would argue for a mental imagery strategy that does not involve motor processes to solve the task. The second model reflects a motor imagery strategy to solve the task. In line with previous research, we showed an age-related increase in response accuracy and decrease in response duration in children. Observed data for both back and palm view showed that motor imagery strategies were used to perform hand laterality judgments, but that not all the children use these strategies (appropriately) at all times. A direct comparison of response duration patterns across age sheds new light on age-related differences in the strategies employed to solve the task. Importantly, the employment of the motor imagery strategy for successful task performance did not change with age.

  6. Use of Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction Data for Inversely Determining Atmospheric Refractivity in Surface Ducting Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenway, D. P.; Hackett, E.

    2017-12-01

    Under certain atmospheric refractivity conditions, propagated electromagnetic waves (EM) can become trapped between the surface and the bottom of the atmosphere's mixed layer, which is referred to as surface duct propagation. Being able to predict the presence of these surface ducts can reap many benefits to users and developers of sensing technologies and communication systems because they significantly influence the performance of these systems. However, the ability to directly measure or model a surface ducting layer is challenging due to the high spatial resolution and large spatial coverage needed to make accurate refractivity estimates for EM propagation; thus, inverse methods have become an increasingly popular way of determining atmospheric refractivity. This study uses data from the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System developed by the Naval Research Laboratory and instrumented helicopter (helo) measurements taken during the Wallops Island Field Experiment to evaluate the use of ensemble forecasts in refractivity inversions. Helo measurements and ensemble forecasts are optimized to a parametric refractivity model, and three experiments are performed to evaluate whether incorporation of ensemble forecast data aids in more timely and accurate inverse solutions using genetic algorithms. The results suggest that using optimized ensemble members as an initial population for the genetic algorithms generally enhances the accuracy and speed of the inverse solution; however, use of the ensemble data to restrict parameter search space yields mixed results. Inaccurate results are related to parameterization of the ensemble members' refractivity profile and the subsequent extraction of the parameter ranges to limit the search space.

  7. Outcome prediction value of determination of cord blood ADM concentrations in neonates with perinatal asphyxia events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Shifa; Zhou Mingxiong; Zhang Xinlu

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the clinical value of determination of cord blood adrenomedullin (ADM) concentration for predicting development of hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) in neonates suffered from perinatal asphyxia. Methods: Cord blood plasma ADM concentrations were measured with RIA in 77 full-ferm neonates with perinatal asphyxia and 30 controls. Results: In the 77 neonates with perinatal asphyxia, 32 developed clinical evidence of HIE within 7 days after birth (HIE group) and 45 didn't (non-HIE group). Cord blood plasma ADM concentrations in the HIE group (160.30 ± 41.3pg/ml) were significantly higher than those in the non-HIE group (112.26 ± 22.90 pg/ml) and controls (102.90 ± 19.43pg/ml). The cord blood plasma ADH concentrations in HIE group were also significantly positively correlated with the severity of the disease (r s = 0. 752, P < 0. 01 ). From our data, taking 117.93pg/ml as cut-off value for diagnosis of HIE would result in a sensitivity of 90.63%, specificity of 80%, and accuracy of 84.42%. Conclusion: High level of ADM in cord blood of neonates with perinatal asphyxia (≥117.93pg/ml) would predict development of HIE with a reasonable accuracy. (authors)

  8. SPEER-SERVER: a web server for prediction of protein specificity determining sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Abhijit; Mandloi, Sapan; Lanczycki, Christopher J; Panchenko, Anna R; Chakrabarti, Saikat

    2012-07-01

    Sites that show specific conservation patterns within subsets of proteins in a protein family are likely to be involved in the development of functional specificity. These sites, generally termed specificity determining sites (SDS), might play a crucial role in binding to a specific substrate or proteins. Identification of SDS through experimental techniques is a slow, difficult and tedious job. Hence, it is very important to develop efficient computational methods that can more expediently identify SDS. Herein, we present Specificity prediction using amino acids' Properties, Entropy and Evolution Rate (SPEER)-SERVER, a web server that predicts SDS by analyzing quantitative measures of the conservation patterns of protein sites based on their physico-chemical properties and the heterogeneity of evolutionary changes between and within the protein subfamilies. This web server provides an improved representation of results, adds useful input and output options and integrates a wide range of analysis and data visualization tools when compared with the original standalone version of the SPEER algorithm. Extensive benchmarking finds that SPEER-SERVER exhibits sensitivity and precision performance that, on average, meets or exceeds that of other currently available methods. SPEER-SERVER is available at http://www.hpppi.iicb.res.in/ss/.

  9. Social determinants of health predict state incidence of HIV and AIDS: a short report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeglin, Robert J; Stein, J Paul

    2015-01-01

    There are approximately 1.2 million people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in the USA. Each year, there are roughly 50,000 new HIV diagnoses. The World Health Organization Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH) identified several social determinants of health and health inequity (SDH) including childcare, education, employment, gender equality, health insurance, housing, and income. The CSDH also noted the significant impact the SDH can have on advocacy for social change, social interventions to reduce HIV prevalence, and health monitoring. The current analysis evaluated the predictive ability of five SDH for HIV and AIDS incidence on the state level. The SDH used in the analysis were education, employment, housing, income, and insurance; other SDH were not included because reliable and appropriate state-level data were not available. The results of multiple regression analyses indicate that the use of these five SDH create statistically significant models predicting HIV incidence (adjusted R(2) = .54) and AIDS incidence (adjusted R(2) = .37) and account for a sizable portion of the variance for each. Stepwise variable selection reduced the necessary SDH to two: (1) education and (2) housing. These models are also statistically significant and account for a notable portion of variance in HIV incidence (adjusted R(2) = .55) and AIDS incidence (adjusted R(2) = .40). These outcomes demonstrate that state-level SDH, particularly education and housing, offer significant explanatory power regarding HIV and AIDS incidence rates. Congruent with the recommendations of the CSDH, the results of the current analysis suggest that state-sponsored policy and social interventions should consider and target SDH, especially education and housing, in attempts to reduce HIV and AIDS incidence rates.

  10. Walking economy is predictably determined by speed, grade, and gravitational load.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludlow, Lindsay W; Weyand, Peter G

    2017-11-01

    The metabolic energy that human walking requires can vary by more than 10-fold, depending on the speed, surface gradient, and load carried. Although the mechanical factors determining economy are generally considered to be numerous and complex, we tested a minimum mechanics hypothesis that only three variables are needed for broad, accurate prediction: speed, surface grade, and total gravitational load. We first measured steady-state rates of oxygen uptake in 20 healthy adult subjects during unloaded treadmill trials from 0.4 to 1.6 m/s on six gradients: -6, -3, 0, 3, 6, and 9°. Next, we tested a second set of 20 subjects under three torso-loading conditions (no-load, +18, and +31% body weight) at speeds from 0.6 to 1.4 m/s on the same six gradients. Metabolic rates spanned a 14-fold range from supine rest to the greatest single-trial walking mean (3.1 ± 0.1 to 43.3 ± 0.5 ml O 2 ·kg -body -1 ·min -1 , respectively). As theorized, the walking portion (V̇o 2-walk  =  V̇o 2-gross - V̇o 2-supine-rest ) of the body's gross metabolic rate increased in direct proportion to load and largely in accordance with support force requirements across both speed and grade. Consequently, a single minimum-mechanics equation was derived from the data of 10 unloaded-condition subjects to predict the pooled mass-specific economy (V̇o 2-gross , ml O 2 ·kg -body + load -1 ·min -1 ) of all the remaining loaded and unloaded trials combined ( n = 1,412 trials from 90 speed/grade/load conditions). The accuracy of prediction achieved ( r 2  = 0.99, SEE = 1.06 ml O 2 ·kg -1 ·min -1 ) leads us to conclude that human walking economy is predictably determined by the minimum mechanical requirements present across a broad range of conditions. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Introduced is a "minimum mechanics" model that predicts human walking economy across a broad range of conditions from only three variables: speed, surface grade, and body-plus-load mass. The derivation

  11. Evaluation of cloud prediction and determination of critical relative humidity for a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seaman, N.L.; Guo, Z.; Ackerman, T.P. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Predictions of cloud occurrence and vertical location from the Pennsylvannia State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) were evaluated statistically using cloud observations obtained at Coffeyville, Kansas, as part of the Second International satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment campaign. Seventeen cases were selected for simulation during a November-December 1991 field study. MM5 was used to produce two sets of 36-km simulations, one with and one without four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), and a set of 12-km simulations without FDDA, but nested within the 36-km FDDA runs.

  12. Which Food Security Determinants Predict Adequate Vegetable Consumption among Rural Western Australian Children?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie L. Godrich

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Improving the suboptimal vegetable consumption among the majority of Australian children is imperative in reducing chronic disease risk. The objective of this research was to determine whether there was a relationship between food security determinants (FSD (i.e., food availability, access, and utilisation dimensions and adequate vegetable consumption among children living in regional and remote Western Australia (WA. Caregiver-child dyads (n = 256 living in non-metropolitan/rural WA completed cross-sectional surveys that included questions on FSD, demographics and usual vegetable intake. A total of 187 dyads were included in analyses, which included descriptive and logistic regression analyses via IBM SPSS (version 23. A total of 13.4% of children in this sample had adequate vegetable intake. FSD that met inclusion criteria (p ≤ 0.20 for multivariable regression analyses included price; promotion; quality; location of food outlets; variety of vegetable types; financial resources; and transport to outlets. After adjustment for potential demographic confounders, the FSD that predicted adequate vegetable consumption were, variety of vegetable types consumed (p = 0.007, promotion (p = 0.017, location of food outlets (p = 0.027, and price (p = 0.043. Food retail outlets should ensure that adequate varieties of vegetable types (i.e., fresh, frozen, tinned are available, vegetable messages should be promoted through food retail outlets and in community settings, towns should include a range of vegetable purchasing options, increase their reliance on a local food supply and increase transport options to enable affordable vegetable purchasing.

  13. Predicting Teachers' Use of Digital Learning Materials: Combining Self-Determination Theory and the Integrative Model of Behaviour Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreijns, Karel; Vermeulen, Marjan; Van Acker, Frederik; van Buuren, Hans

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we report on a study that investigated the motivational (e.g. intrinsic motivation) and dispositional variables (e.g. attitudes) that determine teachers' intention to use or not to use digital learning materials (DLMs). To understand the direct and indirect relationships between these variables, we replicated a study in which…

  14. Predicting Teachers’ use of Digital Learning Materials: Combining Self-Determination Theory and the Integrative Model of Behavior Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kreijns, Karel; Vermeulen, Marjan; Van Acker, Frederik; Van Buuren, Hans

    2018-01-01

    In this article, we report on a study that investigated the motivational (e.g., intrinsic motivation) and dispositional variables (e.g., attitudes) that determine teachers’ intention to use or not to use Digital Learning Materials (DLMs). To understand the direct and indirect relationships between

  15. Prediction and experimental determination of the solubility of exotic scales at high temperatures - Zinc sulfide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carolina Figueroa Murcia, Diana; Fosbøl, Philip Loldrup; Thomsen, Kaj

    2016-01-01

    The presence of "exotic" scale such as Zinc Sulfide (ZnS), Lead Sulfide (PbS) and Iron Sulfide (FeS) in HP/HT reservoirs has been identified. "Exotic" scale materials come as a new challenge in HP/HT reservoirs. This has led to the development of more advanced tools to predict their behavior...... at extreme conditions. The aim of this work is to include ZnS into the group of scale materials that can be modeled with the Extended UNIQUAC model. Solubility data for ZnS are scarce in the open literature. In order to improve the available data, we study the experimental behavior of ZnS solubility at high...... temperatures. The determination of the solubility of ZnS is carried out at temperatures up to 250°C. Zinc sulfide (99.99%) and ultra-pure water are placed in a vial in a reduced oxygen atmosphere. The sample is placed in a controlled bath and stirred until equilibrium is attained. The suspension is filtered...

  16. Self-determined forms of motivation predict sport injury prevention and rehabilitation intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Derwin K C; Hagger, Martin S

    2012-09-01

    Two studies were conducted to examine how motivational regulations from self-determination theory (SDT) influenced athletes' intentions towards sport-injury rehabilitation (Study 1) and prevention behaviours (Study 2) using the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) as a framework. A cross-sectional survey was employed. Elite athletes (Study 1: N=214; Study 2: N=533) completed the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire and psychometric measures of constructs from the TPB, with respect to their rehabilitation from sport injury in a hypothetical scenario (Study 1), or their injury prevention experiences (Study 2). Partial least squares path analytic models indicated acceptable fit of the hypothesised model in all samples, and consistently found in both studies that autonomous motivation from SDT was positively associated with attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control from the TPB, and these three TPB variables positively predicted intentions of injury rehabilitation and prevention. Controlled motivation from SDT was, unexpectedly, positively linked to intentions, but the effect was smaller than that for autonomous motivation. Motivational regulations from SDT might serve as sources of information that influence athletes' intentions through their impact on the attitude, perceived social norm and controllability of injury rehabilitation and prevention. Copyright © 2012 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Prediction of intention to continue sport in athlete students: A self-determination theory approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Keshtidar

    Full Text Available Grounded on the self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000 and achievement goals theory (Ames, 1992; Nicholls, 1989, this study via structural equation modelling, predicted intention to continue in sport from goal orientations and motivations among athlete students. 268 athlete students (Mage = 21.9, in Iranian universities completed a multi-section questionnaire tapping the targeted variables. Structural equation modelling (SEM offered an overall support for the proposed model. The results showed that there are positive relationships between intention to continue in sport and both orientations as well as both motivations. A task-involving orientation emerged as a positive predictor of the autonomous motivation, while an ego-involving orientation was a positive predictor controlled motivation as well as autonomous motivation. The results also support positive paths between autonomous motivation and future intention to participate in sport. Autonomous motivation also was a positive mediator in relationship between task orientation and the intentions. As a conclusion, the implications of the task-involving orientation are discussabled in the light of its importance for the quality and potential maintenance of sport involvement among athlete students.

  18. Prediction of intention to continue sport in athlete students: A self-determination theory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtidar, Mohammad; Behzadnia, Behzad

    2017-01-01

    Grounded on the self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000) and achievement goals theory (Ames, 1992; Nicholls, 1989), this study via structural equation modelling, predicted intention to continue in sport from goal orientations and motivations among athlete students. 268 athlete students (Mage = 21.9), in Iranian universities completed a multi-section questionnaire tapping the targeted variables. Structural equation modelling (SEM) offered an overall support for the proposed model. The results showed that there are positive relationships between intention to continue in sport and both orientations as well as both motivations. A task-involving orientation emerged as a positive predictor of the autonomous motivation, while an ego-involving orientation was a positive predictor controlled motivation as well as autonomous motivation. The results also support positive paths between autonomous motivation and future intention to participate in sport. Autonomous motivation also was a positive mediator in relationship between task orientation and the intentions. As a conclusion, the implications of the task-involving orientation are discussabled in the light of its importance for the quality and potential maintenance of sport involvement among athlete students.

  19. Predictive values of traditional animal bioassay studies for human perinatal carcinogenesis risk determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, Lucy M.

    2004-01-01

    The many physiological, biochemical, and structure differences between rodents and humans, especially with regard to gestation and fetal development, invite questions as to the utility of rodent models for the prediction of risk of perinatal carcinogenesis in humans and for extrapolation of mechanistic studies. Here, the relevance of basic generalities, derived from rodent perinatal studies, to human contexts is considered. The cross-species usefulness of these generalities was upheld by the example of carcinogen activation and detoxification as determining factors. These have been established in rodent studies and recently indicted in humans by investigations of genetic polymorphisms in cytochromes P450, N-acetyltransferase, myeloperoxidase, quinone reductase, and glutathione S-transferase. Also, published data have been analyzed comparatively for diethylstilbestrol and irradiation, the two known human transplacental carcinogenic agents. At similar doses to those experienced by humans, both diethylstilbestrol and X- and gamma-irradiation in rodents and dogs yielded increased tumors at rates similar to those for humans. In rodents, there was a clearly negative relationship between total diethylstilbestrol dose and tumors per dose unit, and a similar pattern was suggested for radiation. Diethylstilbestrol had transgenerational effects that did not diminish over three generations. Overall, this analysis of the published literature indicates that there are basic qualitative and quantitative similarities in the responsiveness of human and rodent fetuses to carcinogens, and that dose effects may be complex and in need of further investigation

  20. Combining sequence-based prediction methods and circular dichroism and infrared spectroscopic data to improve protein secondary structure determinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lees, Jonathan G; Janes, Robert W

    2008-01-15

    A number of sequence-based methods exist for protein secondary structure prediction. Protein secondary structures can also be determined experimentally from circular dichroism, and infrared spectroscopic data using empirical analysis methods. It has been proposed that comparable accuracy can be obtained from sequence-based predictions as from these biophysical measurements. Here we have examined the secondary structure determination accuracies of sequence prediction methods with the empirically determined values from the spectroscopic data on datasets of proteins for which both crystal structures and spectroscopic data are available. In this study we show that the sequence prediction methods have accuracies nearly comparable to those of spectroscopic methods. However, we also demonstrate that combining the spectroscopic and sequences techniques produces significant overall improvements in secondary structure determinations. In addition, combining the extra information content available from synchrotron radiation circular dichroism data with sequence methods also shows improvements. Combining sequence prediction with experimentally determined spectroscopic methods for protein secondary structure content significantly enhances the accuracy of the overall results obtained.

  1. Combining sequence-based prediction methods and circular dichroism and infrared spectroscopic data to improve protein secondary structure determinations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lees Jonathan G

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A number of sequence-based methods exist for protein secondary structure prediction. Protein secondary structures can also be determined experimentally from circular dichroism, and infrared spectroscopic data using empirical analysis methods. It has been proposed that comparable accuracy can be obtained from sequence-based predictions as from these biophysical measurements. Here we have examined the secondary structure determination accuracies of sequence prediction methods with the empirically determined values from the spectroscopic data on datasets of proteins for which both crystal structures and spectroscopic data are available. Results In this study we show that the sequence prediction methods have accuracies nearly comparable to those of spectroscopic methods. However, we also demonstrate that combining the spectroscopic and sequences techniques produces significant overall improvements in secondary structure determinations. In addition, combining the extra information content available from synchrotron radiation circular dichroism data with sequence methods also shows improvements. Conclusion Combining sequence prediction with experimentally determined spectroscopic methods for protein secondary structure content significantly enhances the accuracy of the overall results obtained.

  2. Determining the accuracy of predictive energy expenditure (PREE) equations in severely obese adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Alissa; Manlhiot, Cedric; Cordeiro, Kristina; Chapman, Karen; Pencharz, Paul B; McCrindle, Brian W; Hamilton, Jill K

    2017-08-01

    Severe obesity in children and adolescents is now a serious global health concern. Accurate measurements of resting energy expenditure (REE) is a key foundation for successful obesity treatment. Clinical dietitians rely heavily on measured or calculated REE to tailor dietary interventions. Indirect calorimetry (IC) is the gold standard for measuring REE. However, predictive resting energy expenditure (PREE) equations are commonly used when IC is unavailable due to cost or practicality. PREE equations differ based on variables such as age, gender, weight, and height and selecting the most accurate PREE for an individual is crucial to avoid over or underestimation of energy requirements. Published studies investigating the accuracy of PREE equations in obese children and adolescents have reported inconsistent findings, which likely result from heterogeneity in the patient populations studied. Accordingly, this study aimed to (a) assess the accuracy of the published PREE equations in a group of severely obese (SO) adolescents using IC measurement, and (b) determine if there is a BMI threshold at which the PREE equations become less accurate. SO adolescents were studied using IC. REE was calculated using nine commonly used PREE equations. Generalized linear regression equations were used to compare absolute and relative differences between calculated and measured REE (MREE) for each PREE equation. Accuracy was calculated as the percentage of subjects with PREE values within 10 percent of MREE. 226 SO adolescents (mean ± SD age: 15.9 ± 1.9 years; weight: 126.9 ± 24.5 kg; BMI: 44.9 ± 8.1 kg/m 2 ) participated. Mean MREE was 2163 ± 443 kcal/d. PREE calculated by the Mifflin equation was the only equation without a statistically significant bias compared to MREE (mean bias of -23 ± 307 kcal/d; p = 0.26). Mifflin was also the most accurate with 61% of individuals within ±10% of MREE. PREE equations accuracy was not associated with degree of BMI

  3. Theoretical Prediction and Experimental Determination of Heating Time During High-Temperature Heat Treatment of Wood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LIU Xin-you

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Theoretical prediction provides basic understanding and guidance to correctly implement a certaintechnology in the production process. The present study uses a differential equation to predict the heattransfer time between the surface and core layer of wood during the heat treatment, with applicability inestimating the duration of heat treatments at high temperatures. The obtained prediction was compared withthe result of an experimental study performed on Chinese poplar wood with various thicknesses (20, 40 and60mm. During this experiment, the time necessary for the core of wood to reach a temperature of 100°C,130°C and finally 180°C was monitored and the recorded values were compared with the predicted ones.The result of this comparison proved that the experimental values matched the theoretically predicted times,validating thus the applicability of the proposed equation as prediction tool.

  4. Radiologically Determined Sarcopenia Predicts Morbidity and Mortality Following Abdominal Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Keaton; Gordon-Weeks, Alex; Coleman, Claire; Silva, Michael

    2017-09-01

    Individualised risk prediction is crucial if targeted pre-operative risk reduction strategies are to be deployed effectively. Radiologically determined sarcopenia has been shown to predict outcomes across a range of intra-abdominal pathologies. Access to pre-operative cross-sectional imaging has resulted in a number of studies investigating the predictive value of radiologically assessed sarcopenia over recent years. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine whether radiologically determined sarcopenia predicts post-operative morbidity and mortality following abdominal surgery. CENTRAL, EMBASE and MEDLINE databases were searched using terms to capture the concept of radiologically assessed sarcopenia used to predict post-operative complications in abdominal surgery. Outcomes included 30 day post-operative morbidity and mortality, 1-, 3- and 5-year overall and disease-free survival and length of stay. Data were extracted and meta-analysed using either random or fixed effects model (Revman ® 5.3). A total of 24 studies involving 5267 patients were included in the review. The presence of sarcopenia was associated with a significant increase in major post-operative complications (RR 1.61 95% CI 1.24-4.15 p = sarcopenia predicted 1-, 3- and 5-year survival (RR 1.61 95% CI 1.36-1.91 p = sarcopenia may benefit patients undergoing abdominal surgery.

  5. Predictive factors determining outcomes in pulseless limb in paediatric supracondylar fractures of humerus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Hemant; Khanna, Vikram; Bhargava, Rakesh; Vaishya, Raju

    2018-03-01

    Amongst all the complications associated with paediatric supracondylar humerus fractures, significant vascular injury is reported in only 1% cases, of which, less than 1% develop Volkmann's ischemic contracture. This study evaluates factors, like delay in presentation of the injury, limb perfusion and pulse, in determining functional outcome in a supracondylar humerus fractures with pulseless limb. Twenty-one paediatric patients with a pulseless supracondylar humerus fracture presenting from 2012 to 2014 were included. The patients were divided into 3 groups with Group A (pulse returned post-reduction, n = 13), Group B (pink pulseless hand, n = 7) and Group C (white pulseless hand, n = 1). 11 patients in group A and 4 patients in Group B presented within 6 h. of injury while the remaining patients presented after 6 h. The primary outcome was vascular status as indicated by radial pulse and perfusion, and secondary outcomes included functional parameters assessed with Mayo Elbow Performance Score and Flynn criteria. Mean peripheral SpO2 in Group A patients was higher than Group B and Group C had a non-recordable oxygen saturation. Mean capillary refill time was more in Group A than Group B whereas in Group C patient had blanching and no capillary refill was seen. Mean Mayo Elbow Performance Score of Group A patients was highest as compared to Group B and Group C. Patients presenting within 6 h. of injury had a higher mean Mayo Elbow Performance score as compared to the patients presenting after 6 h of injury. Functional outcome as measured by Flynn Criteria was excellent in 13 patients. 6 patients had a good, 2 had fair outcome. A moderate negative corrélation (R = -0.5798) was seen between the time elapsed from the injury and the Mayo Elbow Performance score. Duration to presentation since injury, limb perfusion and presence of peripheral pulses seem to be important predictive factors determining the outcomes in pulseless supracondylar fracture humerus.

  6. Investigation of Load Prediction on the Mexico Rotor Using the Technique of Determination of the Angle of Attack

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Hua; Shen, Wen Zhong; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær

    2012-01-01

    ). The extracted airfoil data are put into a BEM code, and the calculated axial and tangential forces are compared to both computations using BEM with Glauert's and SHEN's tip loss correction models and experimental data. The comparisons show that the present method of determination of angle of attack is correct......Blade element moment (BEM) is a widely used technique for prediction of wind turbine aerodynamics performance, the reliability of airfoil data is an important factor to improve the prediction accuracy of aerodynamic loads and power using a BEM code. The method of determination of angle of attack...

  7. Determination of Mesoscale Predictability Limits with Respect to Uncertainty in the Larger-Scale Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tribbia, Joseph J

    2004-01-01

    ...) at various horizontal resolutions ranging from T42 to Ti 70. Both identical-model and imperfect-model twin experiments are analyzed, and they show distinctive differences from the classical inverse cascade picture of predictability error growth...

  8. On-Line, Self-Learning, Predictive Tool for Determining Payload Thermal Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jen, Chian-Li; Tilwick, Leon

    2000-01-01

    This paper will present the results of a joint ManTech / Goddard R&D effort, currently under way, to develop and test a computer based, on-line, predictive simulation model for use by facility operators to predict the thermal response of a payload during thermal vacuum testing. Thermal response was identified as an area that could benefit from the algorithms developed by Dr. Jeri for complex computer simulations. Most thermal vacuum test setups are unique since no two payloads have the same thermal properties. This requires that the operators depend on their past experiences to conduct the test which requires time for them to learn how the payload responds while at the same time limiting any risk of exceeding hot or cold temperature limits. The predictive tool being developed is intended to be used with the new Thermal Vacuum Data System (TVDS) developed at Goddard for the Thermal Vacuum Test Operations group. This model can learn the thermal response of the payload by reading a few data points from the TVDS, accepting the payload's current temperature as the initial condition for prediction. The model can then be used as a predictive tool to estimate the future payload temperatures according to a predetermined shroud temperature profile. If the error of prediction is too big, the model can be asked to re-learn the new situation on-line in real-time and give a new prediction. Based on some preliminary tests, we feel this predictive model can forecast the payload temperature of the entire test cycle within 5 degrees Celsius after it has learned 3 times during the beginning of the test. The tool will allow the operator to play "what-if' experiments to decide what is his best shroud temperature set-point control strategy. This tool will save money by minimizing guess work and optimizing transitions as well as making the testing process safer and easier to conduct.

  9. Using Self-Determination of Senior College Students with Disabilities to Predict Their Quality of Life One Year after Graduation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Pen-Chiang

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the correlation and predictive relationship between self-determination and quality of life of college students with disabilities. Subjects were 145 senior college students recruited from northern Taiwan. Subjects' age ranged from 22 to 25 years and their disabilities varied, including visual impairments (n =…

  10. Importance of prediction outlier diagnostics in determining a successful inter-vendor multivariate calibration model transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guenard, Robert D; Wehlburg, Christine M; Pell, Randy J; Haaland, David M

    2007-07-01

    This paper reports on the transfer of calibration models between Fourier transform near-infrared (FT-NIR) instruments from four different manufacturers. The piecewise direct standardization (PDS) method is compared with the new hybrid calibration method known as prediction augmented classical least squares/partial least squares (PACLS/PLS). The success of a calibration transfer experiment is judged by prediction error and by the number of samples that are flagged as outliers that would not have been flagged as such if a complete recalibration were performed. Prediction results must be acceptable and the outlier diagnostics capabilities must be preserved for the transfer to be deemed successful. Previous studies have measured the success of a calibration transfer method by comparing only the prediction performance (e.g., the root mean square error of prediction, RMSEP). However, our study emphasizes the need to consider outlier detection performance as well. As our study illustrates, the RMSEP values for a calibration transfer can be within acceptable range; however, statistical analysis of the spectral residuals can show that differences in outlier performance can vary significantly between competing transfer methods. There was no statistically significant difference in the prediction error between the PDS and PACLS/PLS methods when the same subset sample selection method was used for both methods. However, the PACLS/PLS method was better at preserving the outlier detection capabilities and therefore was judged to have performed better than the PDS algorithm when transferring calibrations with the use of a subset of samples to define the transfer function. The method of sample subset selection was found to make a significant difference in the calibration transfer results using the PDS algorithm, while the transfer results were less sensitive to subset selection when the PACLS/PLS method was used.

  11. Validation of adult height prediction based on automated bone age determination in the Paris Longitudinal Study of healthy children

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, David D. [Tuebingen University Children' s Hospital, Tuebingen (Germany); Filderklinik, Filderstadt (Germany); Schittenhelm, Jan [Tuebingen University Children' s Hospital, Tuebingen (Germany); Thodberg, Hans Henrik [Visiana, Holte (Denmark)

    2016-02-15

    An adult height prediction model based on automated determination of bone age was developed and validated in two studies from Zurich, Switzerland. Varied living conditions and genetic backgrounds might make the model less accurate. To validate the adult height prediction model on children from another geographical location. We included 51 boys and 58 girls from the Paris Longitudinal Study of children born 1953 to 1958. Radiographs were obtained once or twice a year in these children from birth to age 18. Bone age was determined using the BoneXpert method. Radiographs in children with bone age greater than 6 years were considered, in total 1,124 images. The root mean square deviation between the predicted and the observed adult height was 2.8 cm for boys in the bone age range 6-15 years and 3.1 cm for girls in the bone age range 6-13 years. The bias (the average signed difference) was zero, except for girls below bone age 12, where the predictions were 0.8 cm too low. The accuracy of the BoneXpert method in terms of root mean square error was as predicted by the model, i.e. in line with what was observed in the Zurich studies. (orig.)

  12. Determination of fruit maturity and its prediction model based on the pericarp index of absorbance difference (IAD for peaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binbin Zhang

    Full Text Available Harvest maturity is closely related to peach fruit quality and has a very important effect on the fresh fruit market. Unfortunately, at present, it is difficult to determine the maturity level of peach fruits by artificial methods. The objectives of this study were to develop quadratic polynomial regression models using near-infrared spectroscopy that could determine the peel color difference, fruit firmness, soluble solids content (SSC, soluble sugar, organic acid components, and their relationships with the absorbance of chlorophyll (index of absorbance difference, IAD in late maturing 'Xiahui 8' peach and 'Xiaguang' nectarine fruits. The analysis was based on data for fruits at veraison, fruits at harvesting maturity, and all fruits. The results showed that firmness has the highest correlation coefficient with IAD. Prediction models for fruit maturity were established between firmness and the IAD of the two cultivars using the quadratic polynomial regression method. Further variance analysis on the one degree term and quadratic term of each equation showed that every partial regression coefficient reached a significant or extremely significant level. No significant difference was observed between estimated and observed values after regression prediction. The regression equations seem to fit well. Other peach and nectarine varieties were used to test the feasibility of maturity prediction by this method, and it was found that maturity was successfully predicted in all the samples. The result indicated that the IAD can be used as an index to predict peach fruit maturity.

  13. Predictive validity of four bioelectrical impedance equations in determining percent fat mass in overweight and obese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, Jane; Daniells, Suzie; Okely, Anthony D; Batterham, Marijka; Nicholls, Jessie

    2008-01-01

    Bioelectrical impedance equations are frequently used by food and nutrition professionals to estimate percent fat mass in overweight and obese children. However, it is not known whether they are accurate for such children, as they have been primarily developed for children of varying body weights. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to evaluate the predictive validity of four previously published prediction equations developed for the pediatric population, among a sample of overweight and obese children. Thirty overweight or obese children (mean age=7.57+/-1.28 years) underwent measurement of fat mass, percent fat mass, and fat-free mass using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA). Impedance values from the BIA were entered into the four prediction equations and Pearson correlations used to determine the significance of associations between each of the BIA prediction equations and DEXA for percent fat mass, fat mass, and fat-free mass. For percent fat mass, paired t tests were used to assess differences between the methods and the technique of Bland and Altman was used to determine bias and error. Results showed that the mean percent fat mass as determined by DEXA for this age group was 40.79%. In comparison with other BIA prediction equations, the Schaefer equation had the closest mean value of 41.98%, and was the only equation not to significantly differ from the DEXA (P=0.121). This study suggests that the Schaefer equation is the only accurate BIA prediction equation for assessing percent fat mass in this sample of overweight and obese children from primarily white backgrounds.

  14. DATA MINING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL MODEL OF COST PREDICTION IN SHIP INTERIM PRODUCT ASSEMBLY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damir Kolich

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to accurately predict costs of the thousands of interim products that are assembled in shipyards, it is necessary to use skilled engineers to develop detailed Gantt charts for each interim product separately which takes many hours. It is helpful to develop a prediction tool to estimate the cost of interim products accurately and quickly without the need for skilled engineers. This will drive down shipyard costs and improve competitiveness. Data mining is used extensively for developing prediction models in other industries. Since ships consist of thousands of interim products, it is logical to develop a data mining methodology for a shipyard or any other manufacturing industry where interim products are produced. The methodology involves analysis of existing interim products and data collection. Pre-processing and principal component analysis is done to make the data “user-friendly” for later prediction processing and the development of both accurate and robust models. The support vector machine is demonstrated as the better model when there are a lower number of tuples. However as the number of tuples is increased to over 10000, then the artificial neural network model is recommended.

  15. Predictability and context determine differences in conflict monitoring between adolescence and adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chmielewski, Witold X; Roessner, Veit; Beste, Christian

    2015-10-01

    The ability to link contextual information to actions is an important aspect of conflict monitoring and response selection. These mechanisms depend on medial prefrontal networks. Although these areas undergo a protracted development from adolescence to adulthood, it has remained elusive how the influence of contextual information on conflict monitoring is modulated between adolescence and adulthood. Using event-related potentials (ERPs) and source localization techniques we show that the ability to link contextual information to actions is altered and that the predictability of upcoming events is an important factor to consider in this context. In adolescents, conflict monitoring functions are not as much modulated by predictability factors as in adults. It seems that adults exhibit a stronger anticipation of upcoming events than adolescents. This results in disadvantages for adults when the upcoming context is not predictable. In adolescents, problems to predict upcoming events therefore turn out to be beneficial. Two cognitive-neurophysiological factors are important for this: The first factor is related to altered conflict monitoring functions associated with modulations of neural activity in the medial frontal cortex. The second factor is related to altered perceptual processing of target stimuli associated with modulations of neural activity in parieto-occipital areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Nonlinear Prediction As A Tool For Determining Parameters For Phase Space Reconstruction In Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miksovsky, J.; Raidl, A.

    Time delays phase space reconstruction represents one of useful tools of nonlinear time series analysis, enabling number of applications. Its utilization requires the value of time delay to be known, as well as the value of embedding dimension. There are sev- eral methods how to estimate both these parameters. Typically, time delay is computed first, followed by embedding dimension. Our presented approach is slightly different - we reconstructed phase space for various combinations of mentioned parameters and used it for prediction by means of the nearest neighbours in the phase space. Then some measure of prediction's success was computed (correlation or RMSE, e.g.). The position of its global maximum (minimum) should indicate the suitable combination of time delay and embedding dimension. Several meteorological (particularly clima- tological) time series were used for the computations. We have also created a MS- Windows based program in order to implement this approach - its basic features will be presented as well.

  17. The determination of contribution of emotional intelligence and parenting styles components to predicts positive psychological components

    OpenAIRE

    hosein Ebrahimi moghadam; mahin Fekraty

    2015-01-01

    Background: Since the essential of positive psychological components, as compliment of deficiency oriented approaches, has begun in recent days,we decided to take into account this new branch of psychology which scientifically considers studying forces of human, as well as because of the importance of this branch of psychology, we also tried to search the contribution of emotional intelligence and parenting styles components to predict positive psychological components. Materials and Methods:...

  18. The determination of contribution of emotional intelligence and parenting styles components to predicts positive psychological components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    hosein Ebrahimi moghadam

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Since the essential of positive psychological components, as compliment of deficiency oriented approaches, has begun in recent days,we decided to take into account this new branch of psychology which scientifically considers studying forces of human, as well as because of the importance of this branch of psychology, we also tried to search the contribution of emotional intelligence and parenting styles components to predict positive psychological components. Materials and Methods:In this cross sectional study 200 psychological students of Azad university (Rudehen branch selected using cluster sampling method. Then they were estimated by Bradbery and Grivers emotional intelligence questionnaire , Bamrind parenting styles and Rajayi et al positive psychological components questionnaire. Research data was analyzed using descriptive statistics (mean and standard deviation, inferential statistics (multiple regression and Pierson correlation coefficient and SPSS software. Results:Among the components of emotional intelligence, the component of emotional self consciousness (β=0.464 had the greatest predictable , and reaction leadership showed no predictability in this research between parenting styles , authority parenting styles had positive significance relationship with positive psychological components. And no significant relationship was found between despot parenting styles and positive psychological components. Conclusion: Regarding the results of this research and importance of positive psychological components, it is suggested to treat the emotional intelligence from childhood and to learn it to parents and remind them the parenting way to decrease the satisfaction of individuals which leads to promotion of society mental health.

  19. [Determination and prediction for vapor pressures of organophosphate flame retardants by gas chromatography].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qingzhi; Zhao, Hongxia; Wang, Yan; Xie, Qing; Chen, Jingwen; Quan, Xie

    2017-09-08

    Organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs) are ubiquitous in the environment. To better understand and predict their environmental transport and fate, well-defined physicochemical properties are required. Vapor pressures ( P ) of 14 OPFRs were estimated as a function of temperature ( T ) by gas chromatography (GC), while 1,1,1-trichioro-2,2-bis (4-chlorophenyl) ethane ( p,p '-DDT) was acted as a reference substance. Their log P GC values and internal energies of phase transfer (△ vap H ) ranged from -6.17 to -1.25 and 74.1 kJ/mol to 122 kJ/mol, respectively. Substitution pattern and molar volume ( V M ) were found to be capable of influencing log P GC values of the OPFRs. The halogenated alkyl-OPFRs had lower log P GC values than aryl-or alkyl-OPFRs. The bigger the molar volume was, the smaller the log P GC value was. In addition, a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model of log P GC versus different relative retention times (RRTs) was developed with a high cross-validated value ( Q 2 cum ) of 0.946, indicating a good predictive ability and stability. Therefore, the log P GC values of the OPFRs without standard substance can be predicted by using their RRTs on different GC columns.

  20. Determination and prediction of octanol-air partition coefficients for organophosphate flame retardants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qingzhi; Zhao, Hongxia; Wang, Yan; Xie, Qing; Chen, Jingwen; Quan, Xie

    2017-11-01

    Organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs) have attracted wide concerns due to their toxicities and ubiquitous occurrence in the environment. In this work, Octanol-air partition coefficient (K OA ) for 14 OPFRs including 4 halogenated alkyl-, 5 aryl- and 5 alkyl-OPFRs, were estimated as a function of temperature using a gas chromatographic retention time (GC-RT) method. Their log K OA-GC values and internal energies of phase transfer (Δ OA U/kJmol -1 ) ranged from 8.03 to 13.0 and from 69.7 to 149, respectively. Substitution pattern and molar volume (V M ) were found to be capable of influencing log K OA-GC values of OPFRs. The halogenated alkyl-OPFRs had higher log K OA-GC values than aryl- or alkyl-OPFRs. The bigger the molar volume was, the greater the log K OA-GC values increased. In addition, a predicted model of log K OA-GC versus different relative retention times (RRTs) was developed with a high cross-validated value (Q 2 (cum) ) of 0.951, indicating a good predictive ability and stability. Therefore, the log K OA-GC values of the remaining OPFRs can be predicted by using their RRTs on different GC columns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. MGMT promoter methylation determined by HRM in comparison to MSP and pyrosequencing for predicting high-grade glioma response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switzeny, Olivier J; Christmann, Markus; Renovanz, Mirjam; Giese, Alf; Sommer, Clemens; Kaina, Bernd

    2016-01-01

    The DNA repair protein O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) causes resistance of cancer cells to alkylating agents and, therefore, is a well-established predictive marker for high-grade gliomas that are routinely treated with alkylating drugs. Since MGMT is highly epigenetically regulated, the MGMT promoter methylation status is taken as an indicator of MGMT silencing, predicting the outcome of glioma therapy. MGMT promoter methylation is usually determined by methylation specific PCR (MSP), which is a labor intensive and error-prone method often used semi-quantitatively. Searching for alternatives, we used closed-tube high resolution melt (HRM) analysis, which is a quantitative method, and compared it with MSP and pyrosequencing regarding its predictive value. We analyzed glioblastoma cell lines with known MGMT activity and formalin-fixed samples from IDH1 wild-type high-grade glioma patients (WHO grade III/IV) treated with radiation and temozolomide by HRM, MSP, and pyrosequencing. The data were compared as to progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of patients exhibiting the methylated and unmethylated MGMT status. A promoter methylation cut-off level relevant for PFS and OS was determined. In a multivariate Cox regression model, methylation of MGMT promoter of high-grade gliomas analyzed by HRM, but not MSP, was found to be an independent predictive marker for OS. Univariate Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed for PFS and OS a significant and better discrimination between methylated and unmethylated tumors when quantitative HRM was used instead of MSP. Compared to MSP and pyrosequencing, the HRM method is simple, cost effective, highly accurate and fast. HRM is at least equivalent to pyrosequencing in quantifying the methylation level. It is superior in predicting PFS and OS of high-grade glioma patients compared to MSP and, therefore, can be recommended being used routinely for determination of the MGMT status of gliomas.

  2. System for prediction and determination of the sub critic multiplication; Sistema para previsao e determinacao da multiplicacao subcritica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez, Aquilino S.; Pereira, Valmir; Silva, Fernando C. da [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica

    1997-12-01

    It is presented a concept of a system which may be used to calculate and anticipate the subcritical multiplication of a PWR nuclear power plant. The system is divided into two different modules. The first module allows the theoretical prediction of the subcritical multiplication factor through the solution of the multigroup diffusion equation. The second module determines this factor based on the data acquired from the neutron detectors of a NPP external nuclear detection system. (author). 3 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Molecular determination of RHD zygosity: predicting risk of hemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn related to anti-D.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirelli, Kevin J; Pietz, Bradley C; Johnson, Susan T; Pinder, Holly L; Bellissimo, Daniel B

    2010-12-01

    Development of an accurate molecular method for paternal RHD zygosity to predict risk to a fetus for hemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn (HDFN) related to anti-D. Quantitative fluorescence polymerase chain reaction (QF-PCR) was used to detect RHD exons 5 and 7, using RHCE exon 7 as an internal control. The genotype and zygosity were determined from the peak area ratios of RHD exon 5 or 7 to RHCE exon 7. We tested 25 Caucasian and 25 African American (AA) samples whose zygosity was predicted from the Rh phenotype and an alternate molecular method. In addition, we tested 71 paternal samples from prenatal cases where fetal testing was performed. RHD/RHCE ratios clearly distinguished the RHD/D and RHD/d genotypes. RHD variants were recognized when RHD exon 5 copy number was discordant with exon 7. The molecular assay identified eight cases where the phenotype incorrectly assigned zygosity and we observed three false-negatives in the hybrid Rhesus box assay. The prenatal results were consistent with the zygosity determined for the paternal samples in our study. This QF-PCR method accurately determines RHD zygosity in Caucasians and AAs and will help predict the risk that a fetus will inherit RHD. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Determining the Difference between Predicted vs. Actual Lighting Use in Higher Education Corridors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharine L. van Someren

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The performance gap is a measure of the difference between design assumptions and actual in field data. Estimating terms, specifically the operational hours of use, when making such design assumptions in order to predict the impact of lighting upgrades can potentially result in either an overestimate or underestimate of the savings to be made. In this paper, the background of performance gap measurement is outlined and field measurements are gathered and applied retrospectively to lighting upgrades in corridors. The lighting upgrade projects in three university buildings and their assumptions are explained in relation to the operational hours proposed using the industry “Energy assessment and reporting method.” We then describe a simple and relatively inexpensive means of taking in field measurements using small unobtrusive environmental loggers to record the lighting use and occupancy. This method, which can be implemented prior to upgrade works or energy efficiency retrofits, reveals substantially different patterns of annual electricity consumption, and carbon dioxide equivalent emissions from those assumed by a priori estimates. Patterns of use emerge that include additional hours of use by cleaners, out of hours working, and weekend working not anticipated in original estimates. These results also suggest a valuable distinction between lighting on hours and occupancy hours not captured in the current “Energy assessment and reporting method.” The results find the differences between predicted vs. actual data are considerably different, with lights on hours ranging from −67% lower to 25% and 138% higher when compared with predicted operational hours. We conclude that the estimates the industry uses in calculating energy efficiency upgrades should be accompanied by clear and adequate information about occupancy use. In our study, the consequence of reporting energy savings using assumptions and estimates in calculations resulted in a

  5. [Limitations and controversies in determining the predictive value of oocyte and embryo morphology criteria].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueira, Rita de Cássia Savio; Aoki, Tsutomu; Borges Junior, Edson

    2015-11-01

    In order to increase the success rate of in vitro fertilization cycles, several studies have focused on the identification of the embryo with higher implantation potential. Despite recent advances in the reproductive medicine, based on the OMICs technology, routinely applicable methodologies are still needed. Thus, in most fertilization centers embryo selection for transfer is still based on morphological parameters evaluated under light microscopy. Several morphological parameters may be evaluated, ranging from the pronuclear to blastocyst stage. In general, despite the day of transfer, some criteria are suggested to present a predictive value for embryo viability when analyzed independently or combined. However, the subjectivity of morphological evaluation, as well as the wide diversity of embryo classification systems used by different fertilization centers shows contrasting results, making the implementation of a consensus regarding different morphological criteria and their predictive value a difficult task. The optimization of embryo selection represents a large potential to increase treatment success rates, allowing the transfer of a reduced number of embryos and minimizing the risks of multiple pregnancy.

  6. Prediction of Disease Case Severity Level To Determine INA CBGs Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puspitorini, Sukma; Kusumadewi, Sri; Rosita, Linda

    2017-03-01

    Indonesian Case-Based Groups (INA CBGs) is case-mix payment system using software grouper application. INA CBGs consisting of four digits code where the last digits indicating the severity level of disease cases. Severity level influence by secondary diagnosis (complications and co-morbidity) related to resource intensity level. It is medical resources used to treat a hospitalized patient. Objectives of this research is developing decision support system to predict severity level of disease cases and illustrate INA CBGs rate by using data mining decision tree classification model. Primary diagnosis (DU), first secondary diagnosis (DS 1), and second secondary diagnosis (DS 2) are attributes that used as input of severity level. The training process using C4.5 algorithm and the rules will represent in the IF-THEN form. Credibility of the system analyzed through testing process and confusion matrix present the results. Outcome of this research shows that first secondary diagnosis influence significant to form severity level predicting rules from new disease cases and INA CBGs rate illustration.

  7. Determination of new prediction formula for nasal continuous positive airway pressure in Turkish patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basoglu, Ozen K; Tasbakan, Mehmet Sezai

    2012-12-01

    Race/ethnicity may play an important role in determining body size, severity of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS), and effective continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) (Peff). Turkey is composed of different ethnic groups. Therefore, the aims of this study were to determine new prediction formula for CPAP (Ppred) in Turkish OSAS patients, validate performance of this formula, and compare with Caucasian and Asian formulas. Peff of 250 newly diagnosed moderate-to-severe OSAS patients were calculated by in-laboratory manual titration. Correlation and multiple linear regression analysis were used to model effects of ten anthropometric and polysomnographic variables such as neck circumference (NC) and oxygen desaturation index (ODI) on Peff. New formula was validated in different 130 OSAS patients and compared with previous formulas. The final prediction formula was [Formula: see text]. When Peff of control group was assessed, it was observed that mean Peff was 8.39 ± 2.00 cmH(2)O and Ppred was 8.23 ± 1.22 cmH(2)O. Ppred was within ±3 cmH(2)O of Peff in 96.2% patients. Besides, Peff was significantly correlated with new formula, and prediction formulas developed for Caucasian and Asian populations (r = 0.651, p < 0.001, r = 0.648, p < 0.001, and r = 0.622, p < 0.001, respectively). It is shown that level of CPAP can be successfully predicted from our prediction formula, using NC and ODI and validated in Turkish OSAS patients. New equation correlates with other formulas developed for Caucasian and Asian populations. Our simple formula including ODI, marker of intermittent hypoxia, may be used easily in different populations.

  8. A Note on Determinism and Predictability in Education Research and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kieren, T. E.; And Others

    This paper focuses on the notion of human learners as being structure-determined. Alternate views of educational phenomena and educational research of G. Cziko (1989), D. Bohm and F. D. Peat (1987), H. Maturana and F. Varela (1980, 1987), and S. E. Pirie and T. Kieren (1989, 1990) are considered. A mathematical theory of chaos, random…

  9. Predictive models to determine imagery strategies employed by children to judge hand laterality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spruijt, S.; Jongsma, M.L.A.; Kamp, J. van der; Steenbergen, B.

    2015-01-01

    A commonly used paradigm to study motor imagery is the hand laterality judgment task. The present study aimed to determine which strategies young children employ to successfully perform this task. Children of 5 to 8 years old (N = 92) judged laterality of back and palm view hand pictures in

  10. Predictive models to determine imagery strategies employed by children to judge hand laterality.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spruijt, S.; Jongsma, M.L.; Kamp, J. van der; Steenbergen, B.

    2015-01-01

    A commonly used paradigm to study motor imagery is the hand laterality judgment task. The present study aimed to determine which strategies young children employ to successfully perform this task. Children of 5 to 8 years old (N = 92) judged laterality of back and palm view hand pictures in

  11. Binary Logistic Predictive Model in Determining Students’ Intention to Take Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marvin S. Daguplo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Students’ choice to take higher education is defined by the interaction among behavior and cognition, personal factors, and environmental factors. Using data mining technique and binary regression analysis, this study aims to uncover factors that significantly predict the likelihood for a student to take higher education. Analysis revealed that (i students whose parents are educated with high income are 1.77 times more likely to pursue higher education than not; and (ii Older Female Students are less likely to pursue higher education. The model explains that parents should encouraged their young children to embrace education to its highest level by capacitating themselves economically to provide their basic educational and financial needs. Lastly, the study concludes that the pursuit for higher education among young students can be defined primarily by their parents’ educational and financial capability.

  12. Determination of the strain generated in InAs/InP quantum wires: prediction of nucleation sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molina, S I; Ben, T; Sales, D L; Pizarro, J; Galindo, P L; Varela, M; Pennycook, S J; Fuster, D; Gonzalez, Y; Gonzalez, L

    2006-01-01

    The compositional distribution in a self-assembled InAs(P) quantum wire grown by molecular beam epitaxy on an InP(001) substrate has been determined by electron energy loss spectrum imaging. We have determined the strain and stress fields generated in and around this wire capped with a 5 nm InP layer by finite element calculations using as input the compositional map experimentally obtained. Preferential sites for nucleation of wires grown on the surface of this InP capping layer are predicted, based on chemical potential minimization, from the determined strain and stress fields on this surface. The determined preferential sites for wire nucleation agree with their experimentally measured locations. The method used in this paper, which combines electron energy loss spectroscopy, high-resolution Z contrast imaging, and elastic theory finite element calculations, is believed to be a valuable technique of wide applicability for predicting the preferential nucleation sites of epitaxial self-assembled nano-objects

  13. Determination of the strain generated in InAs/InP quantum wires: prediction of nucleation sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molina, S I [Departamento de Ciencia de los Materiales e I.M. y Q.I., Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Cadiz, Campus RIo San Pedro, s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Ben, T [Departamento de Ciencia de los Materiales e I.M. y Q.I., Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Cadiz, Campus RIo San Pedro, s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Sales, D L [Departamento de Ciencia de los Materiales e I.M. y Q.I., Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Cadiz, Campus RIo San Pedro, s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Pizarro, J [Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informaticos, CASEM, Universidad de Cadiz, Campus RIo San Pedro, s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Galindo, P L [Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informaticos, CASEM, Universidad de Cadiz, Campus RIo San Pedro, s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Varela, M [Condensed Matter Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Pennycook, S J [Condensed Matter Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Fuster, D [Instituto de Microelectronica de Madrid (CNM, CSIC), Isaac Newton 8, 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid (Spain); Gonzalez, Y [Instituto de Microelectronica de Madrid (CNM, CSIC), Isaac Newton 8, 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid (Spain); Gonzalez, L [Instituto de Microelectronica de Madrid (CNM, CSIC), Isaac Newton 8, 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid (Spain)

    2006-11-28

    The compositional distribution in a self-assembled InAs(P) quantum wire grown by molecular beam epitaxy on an InP(001) substrate has been determined by electron energy loss spectrum imaging. We have determined the strain and stress fields generated in and around this wire capped with a 5 nm InP layer by finite element calculations using as input the compositional map experimentally obtained. Preferential sites for nucleation of wires grown on the surface of this InP capping layer are predicted, based on chemical potential minimization, from the determined strain and stress fields on this surface. The determined preferential sites for wire nucleation agree with their experimentally measured locations. The method used in this paper, which combines electron energy loss spectroscopy, high-resolution Z contrast imaging, and elastic theory finite element calculations, is believed to be a valuable technique of wide applicability for predicting the preferential nucleation sites of epitaxial self-assembled nano-objects.

  14. Forming limit curves determined in high-speed Nakajima tests and predicted by a strain rate sensitive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiß-Borkowski, Nathalie; Lian, Juhne; Marten, Thorsten; Tröster, Thomas; Münstermann, Sebastian; Bleck, Wolfgang

    2017-10-01

    Material characteristics such as yield strength and failure strain are affected by the loading speed. Even the start of instability and necking depends not only on the strain hardening coefficient but also on the strain rate sensitivity parameter. Therefore, the strain rate dependence of materials for both plasticity and the failure behavior is taken into account in crash simulations for strain rates up to 1,000 s-1. The current standard experiment for investigation of strain rate dependence is the high speed tensile test as described in a FAT guideline. Moreover, the need of material characterization at multi-axial loadings and high strain rates is pointed out in FAT guideline. Forming limit diagrams (FLD) can be used for the description of the material`s instability behavior at multi-axial loading. Usually, the FLD are determined quasi-statically at 1.5 mm/s. The usage of experimentally determined, quasi-static FLD also at high strain rates leads to great uncertainties and thus can be hardly used in crash simulations. A possibility for experimentally recording FLD at high forming rates > 100 s-1 offers the present described high speed Nakajima test. The results for the deep drawing steel DC01 illustrate the need of the determination of dynamic FLD. In this context, due to the strain rate dependence of the material behavior an extrapolation of quasi-static FLD is not feasible. Alternatively, the prediction of forming limit curves (FLC) at high strain rates is possible with the extended modified maximum force criterion. This new and extended model includes the strain rate dependence and therefore predicting forming limits at dynamic forming gets possible. The new approach is described and the accordance of experimental determined and predicted results for the begin of instability is presented.

  15. Predictive power of task orientation, general self-efficacy and self-determined motivation on fun and boredom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorena Ruiz-González

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The aim of this study was to test the predictive power of dispositional orientations, general self-efficacy and self-determined motivation on fun and boredom in physical education classes, with a sample of 459 adolescents between 13 and 18 with a mean age of 15 years (SD = 0.88. The adolescents responded to four Likert scales: Perceptions of Success Questionnaire, General Self-Efficacy Scale, Sport Motivation Scale and Intrinsic Satisfaction Questionnaire in Sport. The results showed the structural regression model showed that task orientation and general self-efficacy positively predicted self-determined motivation and this in turn positively predicted more fun and less boredom in physical education classes. Consequently, the promotion of an educational task-oriented environment where learners perceive their progress and make them feel more competent, will allow them to overcome the intrinsically motivated tasks, and therefore they will have more fun. Pedagogical implications for less boredom and more fun in physical education classes are discussed.

  16. Development of predictive models for determining enterococci levels at Gulf Coast beaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zaihong; Deng, Zhiqiang; Rusch, Kelly A

    2012-02-01

    The US EPA BEACH Act requires beach managers to issue swimming advisories when water quality standards are exceeded. While a number of methods/models have been proposed to meet the BEACH Act requirement, no systematic comparisons of different methods against the same data series are available in terms of relative performance of existing methods. This study presents and compares three models for nowcasting and forecasting enterococci levels at Gulf Coast beaches in Louisiana, USA. One was developed using the artificial neural network (ANN) in MATLAB Toolbox and the other two were based on the US EPA Virtual Beach (VB) Program. A total of 944 sets of environmental and bacteriological data were utilized. The data were collected and analyzed weekly during the swimming season (May-October) at six sites of the Holly Beach by Louisiana Beach Monitoring Program in the six year period of May 2005-October 2010. The ANN model includes 15 readily available environmental variables such as salinity, water temperature, wind speed and direction, tide level and type, weather type, and various combinations of antecedent rainfalls. The ANN model was trained, validated, and tested using 308, 103, and 103 data sets (collected in 2007, 2008, and 2009) with an average linear correlation coefficient (LCC) of 0.857 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.336. The two VB models, including a linear transformation-based model and a nonlinear transformation-based model, were constructed using the same data sets. The linear VB model with 6 input variables achieved an LCC of 0.230 and an RMSE of 1.302 while the nonlinear VB model with 5 input variables produced an LCC of 0.337 and an RMSE of 1.205. In order to assess the predictive performance of the ANN and VB models, hindcasting was conducted using a total of 430 sets of independent environmental and bacteriological data collected at six Holly Beach sites in 2005, 2006, and 2010. The hindcasting results show that the ANN model is capable of

  17. Temperature Field Prediction for Determining the Residual Stresses Under Heat Treatment of Aluminum Alloys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Livshits

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to non-stationary temperature field blanks from aluminum alloys during heat treatment. It consists of the introduction and two smaller paragraphs. In the introduction the author concerns the influence of residual stresses arising in the manufacturing process of details, on the strength of the whole aircraft construction and, consequently, on their technical and economic parameters, such as weight, reliability, efficiency, and cost. He also notes that the residual stresses appeared during the production of parts change their location, size and direction under the influence of the elastic deformations that occur during the exploitation of aircraft. Redistributed residual stresses may have a chaotic distribution that may cause overlap of these stresses on the stresses caused by the impact of workload of constructions and destruction or damage of aircraft components.The first paragraph is devoted to the existing methods and techniques for determining the residual stresses. The presented methods and techniques are analyzed to show the advantages and disadvantages of each of them. The conclusion is drawn that the method to determine the residual stresses is necessary, its cost is less than those of existing ones, and an error does not exceed 10%.In the second section, the author divides the problem of determining the residual stresses into two parts, and describes the solution methods of the first one. The first problem is to define the temperature field of the work piece. The author uses a Fourier equation with the definition of initial and boundary conditions to describe a mathematical model of the heat cycle of work piece cooling. He draws special attention here to the fact that it is complicated to determine the heat transfer coefficient, which characterizes the process of cooling the work piece during hardening because of its dependence on a number of factors, such as changing temperature-dependent material properties of

  18. Use of thermal inertia determined by HCMM to predict nocturnal cold prone areas in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, L. H., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Pairs of HCMM day-night thermal infrared (IR) data were selected during the 1978-79 winter to examine patterns of surface temperature and thermal inertia (TI) of peninsular Florida. The GOES and NOAA-6 thermal IR, as well as National Climatic Center temperatures and rainfall, were also used. The HCMM apparent thermal inertia (ATI) images closely corresponded to the general soil map of Florida, based on soil drainage classes. Areas with low ATI overlay well-drained soils, such as deep sands and drained organic soils, whereas with high ATI overlay areas with wetlands and bodies of water. The HCMM ATI images also corresponded well with GOES-detected winter nocturnal cold-prone areas. Use of HCMM data with Carlson's energy balance model showed both high moisture availability (MA) and high thermal inertia (TI) of wetland-type surfaces and low MA and low TI of upland, well-drained soils. Since soil areas with low TI develop higher temperatures during the day, then antecedent patterns of highest maximum daytime surface temperature can also be used to predict nocturnal cold-prone areas in Florida.

  19. Does exercise motivation predict engagement in objectively assessed bouts of moderate-intensity exercise? A self-determination theory perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standage, Martyn; Sebire, Simon J; Loney, Tom

    2008-08-01

    This study examined the utility of motivation as advanced by self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) in predicting objectively assessed bouts of moderate intensity exercise behavior. Participants provided data pertaining to their exercise motivation. One week later, participants wore a combined accelerometer and heart rate monitor (Actiheart; Cambridge Neurotechnology Ltd) and 24-hr energy expenditure was estimated for 7 days. After controlling for gender and a combined marker of BMI and waist circumference, results showed autonomous motivation to positively predict moderate-intensity exercise bouts of >or=10 min, or=20 min, and an accumulation needed to meet public health recommendations for moderate intensity activity (i.e., ACSM/AHA guidelines). The present findings add bouts of objectively assessed exercise behavior to the growing body of literature that documents the adaptive consequences of engaging in exercise for autonomous reasons. Implications for practice and future work are discussed.

  20. Prediction of oocyte developmental competence in ovine using glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDH) activity determined at retrieval time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi-Sangcheshmeh, Abdollah; Soleimani, Masoud; Deldar, Hamid; Salehi, Mohammad; Soudi, Sara; Hashemi, Seyed Mahmoud; Schellander, Karl; Hoelker, Michael

    2012-02-01

    To determine whether G6PDH-activity measured by Brilliant Cresyl Blue known as BCB dye, predicts developmental competence within cohorts of ovine oocytes. Ovine oocytes were exposed to BCB staining and categorized into two groups: BCB+ (blue cytoplasm, low G6PDH-activity) and BCB- (colorless cytoplasm, high G6PDH-activity). After maturation in vitro, oocytes were subjected to fertilization followed by in vitro embryo culture. We observed a significant difference in oocyte diameter considering BCB+ and BCB- oocytes. BCB+ and Control groups showed significantly higher maturation rates compared to BCB- group. There were significantly more cleaved embryos in BCB+ and control groups than in BCB- group. Blastocyst rate was significantly higher for BCB+ group compared to control and BCB- groups with control group being significantly higher than BCB- group. G6PDH-activity is a strong predictive marker of oocyte competence and may be useful in identifying oocytes with a good prognosis for further develop.

  1. Predictive modelling for shelf life determination of nutricereal based fermented baby food

    OpenAIRE

    Rasane, Prasad; Jha, Alok; Sharma, Nitya

    2014-01-01

    A shelf life model based on storage temperatures was developed for a nutricereal based fermented baby food formulation. The formulated baby food samples were packaged and stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C for a test storage period of 180 days. A shelf life study was conducted using consumer and semi-trained panels, along with chemical analysis (moisture and acidity). The chemical parameters (moisture and titratable acidity) were found inadequate in determining the shelf life of the formulated pr...

  2. A prediction model for determining over ground walking speed after locomotor training in persons with motor incomplete spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winchester, Patricia; Smith, Patricia; Foreman, Nathan; Mosby, James M; Pacheco, Fides; Querry, Ross; Tansey, Keith

    2009-01-01

    To develop and test a clinically relevant model for predicting the recovery of over ground walking speed after 36 sessions of progressive body weight-supported treadmill training (BWSTT) in individuals with motor incomplete spinal cord injury (SCI). A retrospective review and stepwise regression analysis of a SCI clinical outcomes data set. Outpatient SCI laboratory. Thirty individuals with a motor incomplete SCI who had participated in locomotor training with BWSTT. Eight individuals with similar diagnoses were used to prospectively test the prediction model. Over ground walking speed was assessed using the 10-m walking test. The locomotor training program consisted of 36 sessions of sequential comprehensive training comprised of robotic assisted BWSTT, followed by manual assisted BWSTT, and over ground walking. The dose of locomotor training was standardized throughout the protocol. Clinical characteristics with predictive value for walking speed were time from injury onset, the presence or absence of voluntary bowel and bladder voiding, a functional spasticity assessment, and over ground walking speed before locomotor training. The model identified that these characteristics accounted for 78.3% of the variability in the actual final over ground walking speed after 36 sessions of locomotor training. The model was successful in prospectively predicting over ground walking speed in the 8 test participants within 4.15 +/- 2.22 cm/s in their recovered walking speed. This prediction model can identify individuals who are most likely to experience success using locomotor training by determining an expected magnitude of training effect, thereby allowing individualized decisions regarding the use of this intensive approach to rehabilitation.

  3. CRISPRstrand: predicting repeat orientations to determine the crRNA-encoding strand at CRISPR loci

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alkhnbashi, Omer S.; Costa, Fabrizio; Shah, Shiraz Ali

    2014-01-01

    Motivation: The discovery of CRISPR-Cas systems almost 20 years ago rapidly changed our perception of the bacterial and archaeal immune systems. CRISPR loci consist of several repetitive DNA sequences called repeats, inter-spaced by stretches of variable length sequences called spacers. This CRISPR...... array is transcribed and processed into multiple mature RNA species (crRNAs). A single crRNA is integrated into an interference complex, together with CRISPR-associated (Cas) proteins, to bind and degrade invading nucleic acids. Although existing bioinformatics tools can recognize CRISPR loci...... by their characteristic repeat-spacer architecture, they generally output CRISPR arrays of ambiguous orientation and thus do not determine the strand from which crRNAs are processed. Knowledge of the correct orientation is crucial for many tasks, including the classification of CRISPR conservation, the detection...

  4. Comparing predictive ability of Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy to Near Infrared Spectroscopy for soil texture and organic carbon determination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knadel, Maria; Peng, Yi; Gislum, René

    and texture was tested and compared with near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique and traditional laboratory analysis. Calibration models were developed on 50 topsoil samples. For all properties except silt, higher predictive ability of LIBS than NIRS models was obtained. Successful calibrations indicate......Soil organic carbon (SOC) and texture have a practical value for agronomy and the environment. Thus, alternative techniques to supplement or substitute for the expensive conventional analysis of soil are developed. Here the feasibility of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) to determine SOC...

  5. Absorbed dose determination using experimental and analytical predictions of x-ray spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, David Lee

    1999-10-01

    Electron beam welding in a vacuum is a technology that NASA is investigating as a joining technique for manufacture of space structures. The interaction of energetic electrons with metal produces x-rays. This investigation characterizes the x-ray environment due to operation of an in-vacuum electron beam welding tool and provides recommendations for adequate radiation shielding for astronauts performing the in-vacuum electron beam welding. NASA, in a joint venture with the Russian Space Agency, was scheduled to perform a series of welding in space experiments on board the United States Space Shuttle. This series of experiments was named the International Space Welding Experiment (ISWE). The hardware associated with the ISWE was leased to NASA, by the Paton Welding Institute (PWI) in Ukraine, for ground based welding experiments in preparation for flight. Two ground tests were scheduled, using the ISWE electron beam welding tool, to characterize the radiation exposure to an astronaut during the operation of the ISWE. These radiation exposure tests used Thermoluminescence Dosimeters (TLD's) shielded with material currently used by astronauts during Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA) to measure the radiation dose. The TLD's were exposed to x- ray radiation generated by operation of the ISWE in- vacuum electron beam welding tool. This investigation was the first known application of TLD's to measure absorbed dose from x-rays of energy less than 10 keV. The ISWE hardware was returned to Ukraine before the issue of adequate shielding for the astronauts was completely verified. Therefore alternate experimental and analytical methods were developed to measure and predict the x-ray spectral and intensity distribution generated by ISWE electron beam impact with metal. These x-ray spectra were normalized to an equivalent ISWE exposure then used to calculate the absorbed radiation dose to astronauts. These absorbed dose values were compared to TLD measurements obtained during

  6. Motivational "spill-over" during weight control: increased self-determination and exercise intrinsic motivation predict eating self-regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata, Jutta; Silva, Marlene N; Vieira, Paulo N; Carraça, Eliana V; Andrade, Ana M; Coutinho, Sílvia R; Sardinha, Luis B; Teixeira, Pedro J

    2009-11-01

    Successful weight management relies on at least two health behaviors, eating and exercise. However, little is known about their interaction on a motivational and behavioral level. Based on the Hierarchical Model of Motivation the authors examined whether exercise-specific motivation can transfer to eating regulation during a lifestyle weight control program. The authors further investigated whether general, treatment-related, and exercise motivation underlie the relation between increased exercise and improved eating regulation. Overweight/obese women participated in a 1-year randomized controlled trial (N = 239). The intervention focused on promoting physical activity and internal motivation for exercise and weight loss, following Self-Determination Theory. The control group received general health education. General and exercise specific self-determination, eating self-regulation variables, and physical activity behavior. General self-determination and more autonomous exercise motivation predicted eating self-regulation over 12 months. Additionally, general and exercise self-determination fully mediated the relation between physical activity and eating self-regulation. Increased general self-determination and exercise motivation seem to facilitate improvements in eating self-regulation during weight control in women. These motivational mechanisms also underlie the relationship between improvements in exercise behavior and eating regulation. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  7. DETERMINATION OF PREDICTION EQUATIONS TO ESTIMATE BODY CONDITION SCORE FROM BODY SIZE AND TESTICULAR TRAITS OF YANKASA RAMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Yakubu

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The study was aimed to develop prediction models using stepwise multiple linear regressionanalysis for estimating the body condition score (BCS from the body weight (BW, testicular length(TL, testicular diameter (TD and scrotal circumference (SC of indigenous Yankasa rams. Data wereobtained from 120 randomly selected rams with approximately two and half years of age, from differentextensively managed herds in Nasarawa State, Nigeria. Although pairwise phenotypic correlationsindicated strong association (P<0.01 among the measured variables, there was collinearity problembetween BW and SC as revealed by the variance inflation factors (VIF and tolerance valves (T. TheVIT was higher than 10 (VIF = 19.45 and 16.65 for BW and SC, respectively. The Twas smaller than0.1 (T = 0.05 and 0.06 in BW and SC, respectively. BW was retained among the collinear variables, andwas singly accounted for 83.7% of the variation in BCS. However, a slight improvement was obtainedfrom the prediction of BCS from BW and TL [coefficient of determination (R2, adjusted R2 and rootmean squares error (RMSE were 85.3%, 85.1% and 0.305, respectively]. The prediction of the BCS ofYankasa rams from BW and testicular measurements could therefore be a potential tool for sustainableproduction and improvement of small ruminants in Nigeria.

  8. Microinvasion of liver metastases from colorectal cancer: predictive factors and application for determining clinical target volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian, Yang; Zeng, Zhao-Chong; Ji, Yuan; Xiao, Yin-Ping

    2015-01-01

    This study evaluates the microscopic characteristics of liver metastases from colorectal cancer (LMCRC) invasion and provides a reference for expansion from gross tumor volume (GTV) to clinical targeting volume (CTV). Data from 129 LMCRC patients treated by surgical resection at our hospital between January 2008 and September 2009 were collected for study. Tissue sections used for pathology and clinical data were reviewed. Patient information used for the study included gender, age, original tumor site, number of tumors, tumor size, levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 199 (CA199), synchronous or metachronous liver metastases, and whether patients received chemotherapy. The distance of liver microinvasion from the tumor boundary was measured microscopically by two senior pathologists. Of 129 patients evaluated, 81 (62.8 %) presented microinvasion distances from the tumor boundary ranging between 1.0 − 7.0 mm. A GTV-to-CTV expansion of 5, 6.7, or 7.0 mm was required to provide a 95, 99, or 100 % probability, respectively, of obtaining clear resection margins by microscopic observation. The extent of invasion was not related to gender, age, synchronous or metachronous liver metastases, tumor size, CA199 level, or chemotherapy. The extent of invasion was related to original tumor site, CEA level, and number of tumors. A scoring system was established based on the latter three positive predictors. Using this system, an invasion distance less than 3 mm was measured in 93.4 % of patients with a score of ≤1 point, but in only 85.7 % of patients with a score of ≤2 points. The extent of tumor invasion in our LMCRC patient cohort correlated with original tumor site, CEA level, and number of tumors. These positive predictors may potentially be used as a scoring system for determining GTV-to-CTV expansion

  9. Evaluating predictive factors for determining enteral nutrition in patients receiving radical radiotherapy for head and neck cancer: A retrospective review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangar, Stephen; Slevin, Nicholas; Mais, Kathleen; Sykes, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    Background and purpose: To identify objective pre-treatment clinical parameters that could be used to predict for patients at high risk of requiring enteral tube feeding prior to head and neck radiotherapy. Patients and methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 160 consecutive patients attending for radiotherapy assessment. Regression analysis was used to determine various pre-treatment nutritional and tumour specific parameters associated with the use of enteral nutrition either before (prophylactic) or during (reactive) radiotherapy (RT). The significant parameters identified were then selected into categorical variables and compared between those who needed reactive enteral nutrition and the remainder of the group who did not. These results were used to generate predictive factors that could be used to identify those at high risk of malnutrition during RT for whom early or prophylactic enteral nutrition should be considered. Results: Fifty patients required enteral feeding of which 60% required this prior to radiotherapy. Multivariate analysis identified the following factors to be significant-body mass index, performance status (PS), advanced stage, pre-treatment weight loss, low serum albumin and protein, age, and smoking. The most significant categorical predictive parameters for reactive enteral feeding were stage 3-4 disease, PS 2-3, and smoking >20/day. The combination of these factors predicted a 75% chance of needing enteral nutrition. Conclusion: Nutritional assessment is important prior to radiotherapy and is multifactorial. Using a combination of relatively simple and objective parameters (performance status, smoking and disease stage) it is possible to identify those at high risk of needing enteral nutrition prior to starting RT

  10. Polymorph identification and crystal structure determination by a combined crystal structure prediction and transmission electron microscopy approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddleston, Mark D; Hejczyk, Katarzyna E; Bithell, Erica G; Day, Graeme M; Jones, William

    2013-06-10

    Electron diffraction offers advantages over X-ray based methods for crystal structure determination because it can be applied to sub-micron sized crystallites, and picogram quantities of material. For molecular organic species, however, crystal structure determination with electron diffraction is hindered by rapid crystal deterioration in the electron beam, limiting the amount of diffraction data that can be collected, and by the effect of dynamical scattering on reflection intensities. Automated electron diffraction tomography provides one possible solution. We demonstrate here, however, an alternative approach in which a set of putative crystal structures of the compound of interest is generated by crystal structure prediction methods and electron diffraction is used to determine which of these putative structures is experimentally observed. This approach enables the advantages of electron diffraction to be exploited, while avoiding the need to obtain large amounts of diffraction data or accurate reflection intensities. We demonstrate the application of the methodology to the pharmaceutical compounds paracetamol, scyllo-inositol and theophylline. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  11. Experimental Determination and Prediction of the Fitness Effects of Random Point Mutations in the Biosynthetic Enzyme HisA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundin, Erik; Tang, Po-Cheng; Guy, Lionel; Näsvall, Joakim; Andersson, Dan I

    2018-01-01

    Abstract The distribution of fitness effects of mutations is a factor of fundamental importance in evolutionary biology. We determined the distribution of fitness effects of 510 mutants that each carried between 1 and 10 mutations (synonymous and nonsynonymous) in the hisA gene, encoding an essential enzyme in the l-histidine biosynthesis pathway of Salmonella enterica. For the full set of mutants, the distribution was bimodal with many apparently neutral mutations and many lethal mutations. For a subset of 81 single, nonsynonymous mutants most mutations appeared neutral at high expression levels, whereas at low expression levels only a few mutations were neutral. Furthermore, we examined how the magnitude of the observed fitness effects was correlated to several measures of biophysical properties and phylogenetic conservation.We conclude that for HisA: (i) The effect of mutations can be masked by high expression levels, such that mutations that are deleterious to the function of the protein can still be neutral with regard to organism fitness if the protein is expressed at a sufficiently high level; (ii) the shape of the fitness distribution is dependent on the extent to which the protein is rate-limiting for growth; (iii) negative epistatic interactions, on an average, amplified the combined effect of nonsynonymous mutations; and (iv) no single sequence-based predictor could confidently predict the fitness effects of mutations in HisA, but a combination of multiple predictors could predict the effect with a SD of 0.04 resulting in 80% of the mutations predicted within 12% of their observed selection coefficients. PMID:29294020

  12. Application of LIBS and TMA for the determination of combustion predictive indices of coals and coal blends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ctvrtnickova, T.; Mateo, M. P.; Yañez, A.; Nicolas, G.

    2011-04-01

    Presented work brings results of Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) and Thermo-Mechanical Analysis (TMA) of coals and coal blends used in coal fired power plants all over Spain. Several coal specimens, its blends and corresponding laboratory ash were analyzed by mentioned techniques and results were compared to standard laboratory methods. The indices of slagging, which predict the tendency of coal ash deposition on the boiler walls, were determined by means of standard chemical analysis, LIBS and TMA. The optimal coal suitable to be blended with the problematic national lignite coal was suggested in order to diminish the slagging problems. Used techniques were evaluated based on the precision, acquisition time, extension and quality of information they could provide. Finally, the applicability of LIBS and TMA to the successful calculation of slagging indices is discussed and their substitution of time-consuming and instrumentally difficult standard methods is considered.

  13. Determination of predictive - prognostic biomarkers of imbalance between energy and plastic potentials in blood cells of patients with oncopathology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krasnosel's'kij, M.V.; Krut'ko, Je.M.; Movchan, O.V.; Gramatyuk, S.M.

    2017-01-01

    Determination of predictive -prognostic biomarkers of imbalance between energy and plastic potentials in blood cells of patients with oncopathology. An important and dynamically regulated metabolic pathway is glycolysis, an ancient chemical route of carbohydrate utilization that produces ATP, NADH and intermediate metabolites for the synthesis of nucleotides, fatty acids and amino acids. The inhibition of triosephosphate isomerase in glycolysis by the pyruvate kinase substrate phosphoenolpyruvate results in a newly discovered feedback loop that counters oxidative stress in cancer and actively respiring cells. Reduced activity of glycerol-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (p . 0.005), glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase activity, which characterizes the intensity of glycolytic cleavage of glucose, was, on the contrary, increased (p . 0.01). In other words, we can assume the possible presence of imbalance between energy and plastic potentials in red blood cells of cancer patients and to use these indicators as biomarkers of the disease.

  14. Determination of GP88 (progranulin) expression in breast tumor biopsies improves the risk predictive value of the Nottingham Prognostic Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrero, Ginette; Hawkins, Douglas M; Bejarano, Pablo A; Ioffe, Olga; Tkaczuk, Katherine R; Elliott, Robert E; Head, Jonathan F; Phillips, Jeffrey; Godwin, Andrew K; Weaver, JoEllen; Hicks, David; Yue, Binbin

    2016-08-08

    The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI), which combines numerical values for nodal status, tumor size and histological grade, is used in the standard of care to provide predictive value information on post-surgery survival for patients with primary breast cancer. Attempts to improve the performance of the NPI algorithm have been carried out by testing the inclusion of other biomarker expression and morphological features such as vascular invasion. In the present study, we investigated whether expression of the autocrine growth and survival factor GP88 (progranulin), known to be overexpressed in breast cancer, would improve NPI's predictive value. We examined by immunohistochemistry (IHC) the GP88 expression in 508 cases of estrogen receptor positive invasive ductal carcinoma with known clinical outcomes and for which NPI had been determined. GP88 IHC expression was scored by two board certified pathologists and classified into two score groups of GP88 5.4) and GP88 expression showed that for patients within the same NPI subgroup, patients having tumors with a high GP88 expression (GP88 IHC score of 3+) had a worse DFS than patients with tumors that had a low GP88 expression (GP88 IHC score <3+). When adjusted for NPI, high GP88 score was significantly associated with recurrence with a hazard ratio of 3.30 (95 % CI 2.12 to 5.14). The data suggest that the determination of GP88 tumor expression at time of diagnosis for early stage breast cancer patients can provide additional survival information to that provided by NPI alone and thus may be useful for risk management of patients diagnosed with breast cancer.

  15. Predicting alcohol consumption and binge drinking in company employees: an application of planned behaviour and self-determination theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagger, Martin S; Lonsdale, Adam J; Hein, Vello; Koka, Andre; Lintunen, Taru; Pasi, Heidi; Lindwall, Magnus; Rudolfsson, Lisa; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L D

    2012-05-01

    This study tested an integrated model of the psychosocial determinants of alcohol-related behaviour among company employees from four nations. A motivational sequence was proposed in which motivational orientations from self-determination theory influenced intentions to consume alcohol within guideline limits and alcohol-related behaviour via the mediation of the theory of planned behaviour variables of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control (PBC). A three-wave prospective design using self-reported psychological and behavioural measures. Company employees (N= 486, males = 225, females = 261; M age = 30.41, SD= 8.31) from four nations (Estonia, Finland, Sweden, and UK) completed measures of autonomous and controlled motivation from self-determination theory, attitudes, subjective norms, PBC, intentions from the theory of planned behaviour, and self-reported measures of past alcohol consumption and binge-drinking occasions at the first time point (time 1). Follow-up psychological and behavioural measures were taken one month later (time 2) and follow-up behavioural measures taken a further 2 months later (time 3). Path analyses supported the motivational sequence with identified regulation (time 1), predicting intentions (time 1), and alcohol units consumed (time 2). The effects were indirect via the mediation of attitudes and PBC (time 1). A similar pattern of effects was found for the effect of time 2 psychological variables on time 3 units of alcohol consumed. There was little support for the effects of the psychological variables on binge-drinking behaviour. Findings provide new information on the psychosocial determinants of alcohol behaviour in company employees and the processes involved. Results may provide impetus for the development of interventions to reduce alcohol consumption. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  16. Evaluating the Determinants of Sugary Beverage Consumption among Overweight and Obese Adults: An Application of the Integrative Model of Behavioural Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collado-Rivera, Maria; Branscum, Paul; Larson, Daniel; Gao, Haijuan

    2018-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the determinants of sugary drink consumption among overweight and obese adults attempting to lose weight using the Integrative Model of Behavioural Prediction (IMB). Design: Cross-sectional design. Method: Determinants of behavioural intentions (attitudes, perceived norms and perceived…

  17. A Model of Contextual Motivation in Physical Education: Using Constructs from Self-Determination and Achievement Goal Theories To Predict Physical Activity Intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standage, Martyn; Duda, Joan L.; Ntoumanis, Nikos

    2003-01-01

    Examines a study of student motivation in physical education that incorporated constructs from achievement goal and self-determination theories. Self-determined motivation was found to positively predict, whereas amotivation was a negative predictor of leisure-time physical activity intentions. (Contains 86 references and 3 tables.) (GCP)

  18. [A predictive model on self care behavior for patients with type 2 diabetes: based on self-determination theory].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Yeong Mi; Choi, Won Hee

    2011-08-01

    The study was conducted to develop and test a hypothetical model which explains self-care behavior in patients with type 2 diabetes was established based on the Self-Determination Theory. The participants were 218 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus enrolled in an outpatient clinic of one endocrine center in Korea. The data were collected using questionnaires from April 5 through May 7, 2010. The descriptive and correlation statistics were analyzed using the SPSS/WIN 15.0 and the structural equation modeling procedure was performed using the AMOS 7.0 program. The results of this study showed that competence and autonomous motivation were the strong factors influencing self-care behavior in patients in this sample. Support from health provider for autonomy was a significant indirect factor on self-care behavior. These factors explained 64.9% of variance in the participants' self care behavior. The proposed model was concise and extensive in predicting self-care behavior of the participants. Findings may provide useful assistance in developing effective nursing interventions for maintaining and promoting self-care behavior in patients with type 2 diabetes.

  19. Bronchial histamine challenge in the diagnosis of asthma. The predictive value of changes in airway resistance determined by the interrupter method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, F; Holstein-Rathlou, N H; Frølund, L

    1986-01-01

    The predictive value of a bronchial challenge with histamine was determined in a prospective survey on a population with a high prevalence of asthma (0.62). Without knowledge of the bronchial responsiveness 133 patients were classified as asthmatics (83) or non-asthmatics (50) according....../ml the predictive value of a negative test in the diagnosis of asthma was increased to 0.81. The interrupter technique is suitable for diagnostic purposes in the detection and exclusion of bronchial asthma....

  20. Determination and prediction of the energy content and amino acid digestibility of peanut meals fed to growing pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qingyun; Piao, Xiangshu; Liu, Jundi; Zeng, Zhikai; Zhang, Sai; Lei, Xinjian

    2014-01-01

    Two experiments were conducted to determine the content of digestible energy (DE) and metabolisable energy (ME) as well as the apparent ileal digestibility (AID) and standardised ileal digestibility (SID) of amino acids in peanut meal (PNM) for growing pigs. In Experiment 1, 78 growing pigs (46.8 ± 2.6 kg) were randomly allotted to 1 of 13 diets, including a corn-soya bean meal basal diet and 12 PNM test diets. In Experiment 2, 12 growing barrows (48.7 ± 2.8 kg) were allotted to one of two 6 × 6 Latin squares. The treatments include a N-free diet and 10 PNM test diets. The results of Experiment 1 showed that the DE and ME differed (p digestibility (ATTD) of gross energy (GE) was 82.2%. The DE of PNM could be precisely predicted by equations including NDF combined with GE or crude protein (CP) with an R(2) value of 0.91 and 0.92, respectively. For the AID and SID for lysine, the results of Experiment 2 indicated variations among PNM sources ranging from 59.6% to 76.7% and 64.8% to 80.9%, respectively. However, for CP, variations for AID and SID were lower and ranged from 70.2% to 81.9% and 75.7% to 85.6%, respectively. The results indicate that the concentration of lysine was the best single predictor to estimate the digestibility of amino acids. However, further work is needed to investigate the reason for the variation in the digestibility of lysine and avoid processing procedures that are detrimental to lysine digestibility.

  1. Assessing the capacity of social determinants of health data to augment predictive models identifying patients in need of wraparound social services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasthurirathne, Suranga N; Vest, Joshua R; Menachemi, Nir; Halverson, Paul K; Grannis, Shaun J

    2018-01-01

    A growing variety of diverse data sources is emerging to better inform health care delivery and health outcomes. We sought to evaluate the capacity for clinical, socioeconomic, and public health data sources to predict the need for various social service referrals among patients at a safety-net hospital. We integrated patient clinical data and community-level data representing patients' social determinants of health (SDH) obtained from multiple sources to build random forest decision models to predict the need for any, mental health, dietitian, social work, or other SDH service referrals. To assess the impact of SDH on improving performance, we built separate decision models using clinical and SDH determinants and clinical data only. Decision models predicting the need for any, mental health, and dietitian referrals yielded sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy measures ranging between 60% and 75%. Specificity and accuracy scores for social work and other SDH services ranged between 67% and 77%, while sensitivity scores were between 50% and 63%. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for the decision models ranged between 70% and 78%. Models for predicting the need for any services reported positive predictive values between 65% and 73%. Positive predictive values for predicting individual outcomes were below 40%. The need for various social service referrals can be predicted with considerable accuracy using a wide range of readily available clinical and community data that measure socioeconomic and public health conditions. While the use of SDH did not result in significant performance improvements, our approach represents a novel and important application of risk predictive modeling. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  2. The REDUCE metagram: a comprehensive prediction tool for determining the utility of dutasteride chemoprevention in men at risk for prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carvell eNguyen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: 5-alpha reductase inhibitors can reduce the risk of prostate cancer but can be associated with significant side effects. A library of nomograms which predict the risk of clinical endpoints relevant to dutasteride treatment may help determine if chemoprevention is suited to the individual patient. Methods: Data from the REDUCE trial was used to identify predictive factors for nine endpoints relevant to dutasteride treatment. Using the treatment and placebo groups from the biopsy cohort, Cox proportional hazards and competing risks regression models were used to build 18 nomograms, whose predictive ability was measured by concordance index and calibration plots. Results: A total of 18 nomograms assessing the risks of cancer, high-grade cancer, high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (HGPIN, atypical small acinar proliferation (ASAP, erectile dysfunction (ED, acute urinary retention (AUR, gynecomastia, urinary tract infection (UTI and BPH-related surgery either on or off dutasteride were created. The nomograms for cancer, high grade cancer, ED, AUR, and BPH-related surgery demonstrated good discrimination and calibration while those for gynecomastia, UTI, HGPIN, and ASAP predicted no better than random chance. Conclusions: To aid patients in determining whether the benefits of dutasteride use outweigh the risks, we have developed a comprehensive metagram that can generate individualized risks of 9 outcomes relevant to men considering chemoprevention. Better models based on more predictive markers are needed for some of the endpoints but the current metagram demonstrates potential as a tool for patient counseling and decision making that is accessible, intuitive, and clinically relevant.

  3. Tannin is a key factor in the determination and prediction of energy content in sorghum grains fed to growing pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, L; Li, P; Ma, X K; Xu, Y T; Tian, Q Y; Liu, L; Li, D F; Piao, X S

    2016-07-01

    This study was conducted to determine and compare the DE and ME content as well as the apparent total tract digestibility (ATTD) of GE in 28 samples of sorghum grain fed to growing pigs and to generate prediction equations for DE, ME, and the ATTD of GE based on chemical analysis. The 28 samples included 8 low-tannin sorghum cultivars (LTS; tannin ≤ 0.16%), 10 medium-tannin sorghum cultivars (MTS: 0.67% ≤ tannin ≤ 0.98%), and 10 high-tannin sorghum cultivars (HTS; 1.11% ≤ tannin ≤ 1.51%) obtained from 9 provinces in China and 3 samples of LTS cultivars were obtained internationally. The 28 diets were formulated to contain 96.9% of 1 of the 28 sorghum grains and 3.1% of vitamins and minerals. Eighty-four barrows (36.5 ± 3.4 kg initial BW) were used in a randomized complete block design conducted during 2 consecutive periods ( = 6 per treatment) with the pigs fed different diets during the 2 periods. For each period, pigs were placed in metabolic crates for a 5-d total collection of feces and urine following 7 d of adaptation to the diets. Among the 28 samples, GE, CP, and ADF content (DM basis) ranged from 4,363 to 4,496 kcal/kg, 8.26 to 13.41%, and 3.26 to 5.78%, respectively. The average tannin content was 0.08, 0.84, and 1.29% in the LTS, MTS, and HTS samples, respectively. The DE and ME content (DM basis) ranged from 3,861 to 3,989 and from 3,784 to 3,905 kcal/kg, respectively, in LTS; from 3,646 to 3,740 and from 3,588 to 3,669 kcal/kg, respectively, in MTS; and from 3,481 to 3,617 and from 3,418 to 3,538 kcal/kg, respectively, in HTS. The mean DE, ME, DE/GE, ME/GE, and ATTD of GE in MTS were less than those in LTS ( tannin content were all -0.96 ( tannin) - (43.27 × % ADF) + (24.96 × % CP) - (0.71 × % GE) for DE and 3,973 - (262 × % tannin) - (27.24 × % ADF) for ME. Our results strongly indicate that the DE and ME content of sorghum grains are related to their chemical composition, especially their tannin content. The DE and ME content could

  4. Predictive Ability of the Medicine Ball Chest Throw and Vertical Jump Tests for Determining Muscular Strength and Power in Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackett, Daniel A.; Davies, Timothy B.; Ibel, Denis; Cobley, Stephen; Sanders, Ross

    2018-01-01

    This study examined the predictive ability of the medicine ball chest throw and vertical jump for muscular strength and power in adolescents. One hundred and ninety adolescents participated in this study. Participants performed trials of the medicine ball chest throw and vertical jump, with vertical jump peak power calculated via an estimation…

  5. Determining the Importance of Calibration for Predicting Relative Changes in Streamflow from Land Use/Cover Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niraula, R.; Meixner, T.; Norman, L. M.

    2012-12-01

    Human-induced land use/cover (LULC) change and climate change can have significant impacts on water quantity and quality. Prediction of impacts due to anticipated LULC and climate change on water in arid and semi-arid regions are crucial to understand due to scarce water resources. Watershed models are often used to analyze the effects of land use/cover and climate change on water resources, commonly in terms of relative changes; and provide important information for decision making. These models are often calibrated and validated with available data which can be time consuming and sometimes even very difficult. The objective of this study is to quantify the variation of estimated relative changes in streamflow associated with LULC with uncalibrated, single outlet calibrated and spatially-calibrated watershed model. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied in an uncalibrated, single outlet calibrated, and spatially-calibrated (at 7 USGS stream-gaging stations) mode to compare and quantify the relative change in terms of magnitude and direction of flow in a 9000 km2 semi-arid Santa Cruz watershed on the border of southern Arizona, United States, and northern Sonora, Mexico. While the average annual precipitation over the whole watershed is approximately 430 mm, the average annual discharge ranges between 0.17 and 2.64 m3/s. The effect due to three LULC scenarios, where urbanization is expected to increase from ~12% in 1999 to range of 35-40% in 2050 was analyzed. For the 7 USGS stations, all 3 calibration scenarios demonstrated an increase in predicted flow but magnitude of predicted change varied. The uncalibrated model predicted the increase from 4% to 15%, the single-outlet calibrated model predicted between 5% and 105%, and the spatially-calibrated model predicted the increase to be between 4% and 170%. While the results were similar between uncalibrated and single outlet calibration at some stations, the results were more similar to single outlet and

  6. Determination of intensity functions for predicting subsidence from coal mining, potash mining, and groundwater withdrawal using the influence function technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Triplett, T.; Yurchak, D. [Twin Cities Research Center, Bureau of Mines, US Dept. of the Interior, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents research, conducted by the Bureau of Mines, on modifying the influence function method to predict subsidence. According to theory, this technique must incorporate an intensity function to represent the relative significance of the causes of subsidence. This paper shows that the inclusion of a reasonable intensity function increases the accuracy of the technique, then presents the required functions for case studies of longwall coal mining subsidence in Illinois, USA, potash mining subsidence in new Mexico, USA, and subsidence produced by ground water withdrawal in California, USA. Finally, the paper discusses a method to predict the resultant strain from a simply measured site constant and ground curvatures calculated by the technique. (orig.)

  7. Prediction of radiosensitivity of human tumor cell lines in vitro by determining 4977bp deletion in mitochondrial DNA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rong Qinglin; Cao Yongzhen; Zhang Yaowen; Zhao Xinran; Wang Qin; Li Jin; Liu Qiang

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the possibility of predicting the radiosensitivity of tumor cell lines using the assay of the mtDNA4977bp deletion. Methods: The mtDNA4977bp deletion of HepG 2 cells and PC-3 cells were detected by nested PCR after irradiated by various doses of x-ray. Results: The radiation-induced mtDNA4977bp deletion of the tumor cell lines of HepG 2 and PC-3 were detected after irradiated. There was a dose dependent in the mtDNA4977bp deletion of two tumor cell lines. The deletion rate of HepG 2 was higher significantly than that of PC-3 at each point of radiation dose (P 2 was higher than that of PC-3. Conclusion: The assay of the mtDNA4977bp deletion may be an approach to predict the radiosensitivity of tumor cells. (authors)

  8. Comparing predictive abilities of three visible-near infrared spectrophotometers for soil organic carbon and clay determination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knadel, Maria; Stenberg, Bo; Deng, Fan

    2013-01-01

    for SOC and clay predictions. The application of different spectral preprocessing procedures did not generate important improvements of the calibration models either. The results from this study showed that as long as strict laboratory scanning protocols were followed no significant differences...... carbon (SOC) and clay calibrations for 194 Danish top soils. Scanning procedures for the three spectrophotometers where done according to uniform laboratory protocols. SOC and clay calibrations were performed using PLS regression. One third of the data was used as an independent test set. A range...... of spectral preprocessing methods was applied in search for model improvement. Validation for SOC content using an independent data set derived from all three spectrophotometers provided values of RMSEP between 0.45 and 0.52 %, R2=0.44-0.58 and RPD=1.3-1.5. Clay content was predicted with a higher precision...

  9. [Value of determination of haptoglobin and α1-antitrypsin in predicting response to glucocorticoid therapy in children with primary nephrotic syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Juan; Zhang, Bi-Li

    2015-03-01

    To study the value of the determination of serum and urine haptoglobin (HP) and alpha 1-antitrypsin (AAT) in predicting the response to glucocorticoid therapy in children with primary nephrotic syndrome (PNS). A total of 84 children with PNS were classified to steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome (SSNS) (n=58) and steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome (SRNS) groups (n=26). Forty healthy children were randomly selected for the control group. HP and AAT levels in blood and urinary samples were determined using ELISA. The efficiency of HP and AAT in predicting the response to glucocorticoid treatment of PNS was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Compared with the control group, both the SSNS and SRNS groups had significantly higher serum HP concentrations and urine AAT/Cr ratio before treatment (Pratio before treatment and after one week and four weeks of treatment (Phighest efficiency in predicting the response to glucocorticoid treatment of PNS at the concentration of 37.935 mg/mL, with the sensitivity and specificity being 92.3% and 86.2% respectively. Urine AAT/Cr ratio had the highest prediction efficiency at 0.0696, with the sensitivity and specificity being 100% and 79.3% respectively. ROC curve analysis of serum HP combined with urine AAT/Cr ratio showed a better prediction efficiency, with the sensitivity and specificity being 92.3% and 96.6% respectively. The increase in serum HP level or urine AAT/Cr ratio may indicate glucocorticoid resistance in the early stage of PNS. A combination of the two can achieve better efficiency in the prediction of SRNS.

  10. Strain dyssynchrony index determined by three-dimensional speckle area tracking can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onishi Tetsuari

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We have previously reported strain dyssynchrony index assessed by two-dimensional speckle tracking strain, and a marker of both dyssynchrony and residual myocardial contractility, can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. A newly developed three-dimensional (3-D speckle tracking system can quantify endocardial area change ratio (area strain, which coupled with the factors of both longitudinal and circumferential strain, from all 16 standard left ventricular (LV segments using complete 3-D pyramidal datasets. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that strain dyssynchrony index using area tracking (ASDI can quantify dyssynchrony and predict response to CRT. Methods We studied 14 heart failure patients with ejection fraction of 27 ± 7% (all≤35% and QRS duration of 172 ± 30 ms (all≥120 ms who underwent CRT. Echocardiography was performed before and 6-month after CRT. ASDI was calculated as the average difference between peak and end-systolic area strain of LV endocardium obtained from 3-D speckle tracking imaging using 16 segments. Conventional dyssynchrony measures were assessed by interventricular mechanical delay, Yu Index, and two-dimensional radial dyssynchrony by speckle-tracking strain. Response was defined as a ≥15% decrease in LV end-systolic volume 6-month after CRT. Results ASDI ≥ 3.8% was the best predictor of response to CRT with a sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 100% and area under the curve (AUC of 0.93 (p Conclusions ASDI can predict responders and LV reverse remodeling following CRT. This novel index using the 3-D speckle tracking system, which shows circumferential and longitudinal LV dyssynchrony and residual endocardial contractility, may thus have clinical significance for CRT patients.

  11. Determining the bounds of skilful forecast range for probabilistic prediction of system-wide wind power generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Cannon

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available State-of-the-art wind power forecasts beyond a few hours ahead rely on global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the future large-scale atmospheric state. Often they provide initial and boundary conditions for nested high resolution simulations. In this paper, both upper and lower bounds on forecast range are identified within which global ensemble forecasts provide skilful information for system-wide wind power applications. An upper bound on forecast range is associated with the limit of predictability, beyond which forecasts have no more skill than predictions based on climatological statistics. A lower bound is defined at the lead time beyond which the resolved uncertainty associated with estimating the future large-scale atmospheric state is larger than the unresolved uncertainty associated with estimating the system-wide wind power response to a given large-scale state.The bounds of skilful ensemble forecast range are quantified for three leading global forecast systems. The power system of Great Britain (GB is used as an example because independent verifying data is available from National Grid. The upper bound defined by forecasts of GB-total wind power generation at a specific point in time is found to be 6–8 days. The lower bound is found to be 1.4–2.4 days. Both bounds depend on the global forecast system and vary seasonally. In addition, forecasts of the probability of an extreme power ramp event were found to possess a shorter limit of predictability (4.5–5.5 days. The upper bound on this forecast range can only be extended by improving the global forecast system (outside the control of most users or by changing the metric used in the probability forecast. Improved downscaling and microscale modelling of the wind farm response may act to decrease the lower bound. The potential gain from such improvements have diminishing returns beyond the short-range (out to around 2 days.

  12. Determinants and development of a web-based child mortality prediction model in resource-limited settings: A data mining approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesfaye, Brook; Atique, Suleman; Elias, Noah; Dibaba, Legesse; Shabbir, Syed-Abdul; Kebede, Mihiretu

    2017-03-01

    Improving child health and reducing child mortality rate are key health priorities in developing countries. This study aimed to identify determinant sand develop, a web-based child mortality prediction model in Ethiopian local language using classification data mining algorithm. Decision tree (using J48 algorithm) and rule induction (using PART algorithm) techniques were applied on 11,654 records of Ethiopian demographic and health survey data. Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA) for windows version 3.6.8 was used to develop optimal models. 8157 (70%) records were randomly allocated to training group for model building while; the remaining 3496 (30%) records were allocated as the test group for model validation. The validation of the model was assessed using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. Using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20.0; logistic regressions and Odds Ratio (OR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was used to identify determinants of child mortality. The child mortality rate was 72 deaths per 1000 live births. Breast-feeding (AOR= 1.46, (95% CI [1.22. 1.75]), maternal education (AOR= 1.40, 95% CI [1.11, 1.81]), family planning (AOR= 1.21, [1.08, 1.43]), preceding birth interval (AOR= 4.90, [2.94, 8.15]), presence of diarrhea (AOR= 1.54, 95% CI [1.32, 1.66]), father's education (AOR= 1.4, 95% CI [1.04, 1.78]), low birth weight (AOR= 1.2, 95% CI [0.98, 1.51]) and, age of the mother at first birth (AOR= 1.42, [1.01-1.89]) were found to be determinants for child mortality. The J48 model had better performance, accuracy (94.3%), sensitivity (93.8%), specificity (94.3%), Positive Predictive Value (PPV) (92.2%), Negative Predictive Value (NPV) (94.5%) and, the area under ROC (94.8%). Subsequent to developing an optimal prediction model, we relied on this model to develop a web-based application system for child mortality prediction. In this study

  13. Predictable weathering of puparial hydrocarbons of necrophagous flies for determining the postmortem interval: a field experiment using Chrysomya rufifacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Guang-Hui; Jia, Zheng-Jun; Yu, Xiao-Jun; Wu, Ku-Sheng; Chen, Lu-Shi; Lv, Jun-Yao; Eric Benbow, M

    2017-05-01

    Preadult development of necrophagous flies is commonly recognized as an accurate method for estimating the minimum postmortem interval (PMImin). However, once the PMImin exceeds the duration of preadult development, the method is less accurate. Recently, fly puparial hydrocarbons were found to significantly change with weathering time in the field, indicating their potential use for PMImin estimates. However, additional studies are required to demonstrate how the weathering varies among species. In this study, the puparia of Chrysomya rufifacies were placed in the field to experience natural weathering to characterize hydrocarbon composition change over time. We found that weathering of the puparial hydrocarbons was regular and highly predictable in the field. For most of the hydrocarbons, the abundance decreased significantly and could be modeled using a modified exponent function. In addition, the weathering rate was significantly correlated with the hydrocarbon classes. The weathering rate of 2-methyl alkanes was significantly lower than that of alkenes and internal methyl alkanes, and alkenes were higher than the other two classes. For mono-methyl alkanes, the rate was significantly and positively associated with carbon chain length and branch position. These results indicate that puparial hydrocarbon weathering is highly predictable and can be used for estimating long-term PMImin.

  14. The predictive value of three-dimensional Doppler ultrasonography in determining implantation in patients underwent in vitro fertilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuf Çakmak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship between endometrial and sub-endometrial blood flow and implantation rate in patients whose undergone in vitro fertilization. Methods: A prospective study was conducted. Long protocol and antagonist regimens were administered to the patients. Endometrial and sub-endometrial blood flow was evaluated by using 3 dimensional Doppler ultrasonography on the day of oocyt retrieval measurement. For comparison pregnant and non-pregnant women in terms of endometrial and sub-endometrial blood flow, t test was used. The p value was considered statistically meaningful as 0.05. In long protocol group, the number of embryo was greater in pregnant women than non-pregnant women (p=0.012. The number of transferred embryo increased pregnancy rate almost 3.5 fold (p=0.002. Conclusion: The endometrial and subendometrial blood flow is not reliable factor in prediction pregnancy or implantation.

  15. Applied the additive hazard model to predict the survival time of patient with diffuse large B- cell lymphoma and determine the effective genes, using microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arefa Jafarzadeh Kohneloo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Recent studies have shown that effective genes on survival time of cancer patients play an important role as a risk factor or preventive factor. Present study was designed to determine effective genes on survival time for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients and predict the survival time using these selected genes. Materials & Methods: Present study is a cohort study was conducted on 40 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. For these patients, 2042 gene expression was measured. In order to predict the survival time, the composition of the semi-parametric additive survival model with two gene selection methods elastic net and lasso were used. Two methods were evaluated by plotting area under the ROC curve over time and calculating the integral of this curve. Results: Based on our findings, the elastic net method identified 10 genes, and Lasso-Cox method identified 7 genes. GENE3325X increased the survival time (P=0.006, Whereas GENE3980X and GENE377X reduced the survival time (P=0.004. These three genes were selected as important genes in both methods. Conclusion: This study showed that the elastic net method outperformed the common Lasso method in terms of predictive power. Moreover, apply the additive model instead Cox regression and using microarray data is usable way for predict the survival time of patients.

  16. Predictive Determination of the Integral Characteristics of Evaporation of Water Droplets in Gas Media with a Varying Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vysokomornaya, O. V.; Kuznetsov, G. V.; Strizhak, P. A.

    2017-05-01

    The possibility of using three heat-transfer models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has been analyzed with account taken of the relevant endothermic phase transformations to predict the integral characteristics of evaporation of liquid droplets (with the example of water) in gas media with a varying temperature. The existing formulations with "diffusive" and "kinetic" approximations to the description of the process of evaporation have been considered, and a new model has been developed according to approximations obtained from the results of conducted experiments (with the use of high-speed cameras and cross-correlation software and hardware systems). Two integral characteristics of the process of evaporation were monitored: the mass rate of vaporization and the lifetime (time of complete evaporation) of a droplet. A comparison of simulation results and experimental data allowed us to draw the conclusion on the expediency of use of ODE-based "diffusive" and "phase-transition" models in a limited temperature range (to 600 K). At high gas temperatures (particularly, higher than 1000 K), a satisfactory correlation with experimental data can be provided by a model that takes account of the substantially nonlinear dependence of the vaporization rate on temperature, the formation of a buffer (steam) layer between the droplet and the gas medium, and the basic mechanisms of heat transfer in the liquid and in the gas medium.

  17. Zinc Isotope Variability in Three Coal-Fired Power Plants: A Predictive Model for Determining Isotopic Fractionation during Combustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa Gonzalez, R; Weiss, D

    2015-10-20

    The zinc (Zn) isotope compositions of feed materials and combustion byproducts were investigated in three different coal-fired power plants, and the results were used to develop a generalized model that can account for Zn isotopic fractionation during coal combustion. The isotope signatures in the coal (δ(66)ZnIRMM) ranged between +0.73 and +1.18‰, values that fall well within those previously determined for peat (+0.6 ±2.0‰). We therefore propose that the speciation of Zn in peat determines the isotope fingerprint in coal. All of the bottom ashes collected in these power plants were isotopically depleted in the heavy isotopes relative to the coals, with δ(66)ZnIRMM values ranging between +0.26‰ and +0.64‰. This suggests that the heavy isotopes, possibly associated with the organic matter of the coal, may be preferentially released into the vapor phase. The fly ash in all of these power plants was, in contrast, enriched in the heavy isotopes relative to coal. The signatures in the fly ash can be accounted for using a simple unidirectional fractionation model with isotope fractionation factors (αsolid-vapor) ranging between 1.0003 and 1.0007, and we suggest that condensation is the controlling process. The model proposed allows, once the isotope composition of the feed coal is known, the constraining of the Zn signatures in the byproducts. This will now enable the integration of Zn isotopes as a quantitative tool for the source apportionment of this metal from coal combustion in the atmosphere.

  18. Determination of the Demographic Variables Predicting Accommodation Business Employees’ Organizational Commitment and Job Satisfaction through CHAID Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engin ÜNGÜREN

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this research is to determine the demographic variables that affect job satisfaction and organizational commitment attitudes via CHAID analysis which is one of the decision tree techniques. CHAID analysis creates sub-clusters by grouping the factors that affect the dependant variable in line with their importance levels and allows the results to be understood and interpreted more easily by displaying the relationship between variables visually. The research was carried out with 821 employees working in five star accommodation businesses in Alanya, Turkey. Survey forms were used as data collection tool. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, cluster analysis and CHAID analysis. The results of the research point a strong positive relationship between organizational commitment and job satisfaction. According to the CHAID analysis results, age was the dominant demographic variable influential on job satisfaction and organizational commitment attitudes. It was also found that job satisfaction and organizational commitment scores of the employees differ significantly in terms of department, marital status, education, status and gender. As a result of CHAID analysis it was determined that “the housekeeping, bar and kitchen department employees in the age range of 18 to 27" and "the married male employees in the age range of 28 to 37” predominantly have negative job satisfaction and organizational commitment attitude. Another result of CHAID analysis has also revealed that “high school and college graduate employees in the age range of 38 to 47” and “48 and over” totally have positive attitude in terms of job satisfaction and organizational commitment.

  19. Pre-treatment prediction of chemoresistance in second-line chemotherapy of ovarian carcinoma: value of serological tumor marker determination (tetranectin, YKL-40, CASA, CA 125)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønlund, B; Høgdall, E V S; Christensen, Ib Jarle

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine if the determination of the levels of serological tumor markers at time of relapse had any predictive value for chemoresistance in the second-line treatment of ovarian cancer patients. METHODS: From a registry of consecutive single-institution patients with epithelial ovarian...... carcinoma pretreated with paclitaxel plus platinum, we selected 82 patients with (a) solid tumor recurrence, and (b) second-line chemotherapy consisting of topotecan (platinum-resistant disease) or paclitaxel plus carboplatin (platinum-sensitive disease). Stored serum samples were analyzed...... of CASA or YKL-40, are associated with increased risk of second-line chemoresistance in patients with ovarian cancer....

  20. Predicting healthy and unhealthy behaviors through physical education: A self-determination theory-based longitudinal approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferriz, R; González-Cutre, D; Sicilia, Á; Hagger, M S

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the relations between three dimensions of the structured teaching environment (promotion of theoretical knowledge, physical learning, and health improvement) in physical education (PE) and the adoption of health-related behaviors by students. The study adopted a two-occasion longitudinal design based on self-determination theory (SDT). PE students (N = 654, mean age = 16.13, SD = .77) completed measures of perceived structured teaching environment, satisfaction of basic psychological needs and motivation for PE, and healthy (physical activity, sport participation, and healthy eating) and unhealthy (consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and drugs) behaviors at the beginning and end of the first year of post-compulsory secondary education. Path analysis of the proposed relations among variables supported SDT tenets and showed positive relations between the three dimensions of the structured teaching environment, the satisfaction of basic psychological needs, and autonomous motivation in PE. Autonomous motivation contributed to an explanation of variance in two healthy behaviors, physical activity and sport participation. However, no relation was found among motivation in PE, healthy eating, and consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and drugs. These results show negligible trans-contextual influence of SDT motivational factors in PE on other healthy behaviors beyond physical activity. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. [Determination of the concentration of platelet serotonin for the prediction of the two-wave course of tick-borne encephalitis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumlivaia, O N; Vorob'eva, N N; Karakulova, Iu V

    2014-01-01

    The paper gives the results of an investigation of platelet serotonin levels in patients with tick-borne encephalitis to determine a criterion for predicting the development of its to-wave course. Fifty-five patients were examined at the height of tick-borne encephalitis (in the first 2-4 days): Group 1 included 39 patients with a one-wave course of the disease; Group 2 consisted of 16 patients with its two-wave course. Platelet serotonin concentrations were determined by enzyme immunoassay. Analysis of platelet serotonin levels could establish its lower value in the two-wave course (115.6 ± 36.2 ng/ml) than in the one-wave one (261.9 ± 96.8 ng/ml; p wave of the infection.

  2. Prediction of three-dimensional contact stress and ligament tension in the ankle during stance determined from computational modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haraguchi, Naoki; Armiger, Robert S; Myerson, Mark S; Campbell, John T; Chao, Edmund Y S

    2009-02-01

    Our goal was to quantify and visualize the three-dimensional loading relationship between the ligaments and articular surfaces of the ankle to identify and determine the stabilizing roles of these anatomical structures during the stance phase of gait. We applied discrete element analysis to computationally model the three-dimensional contact characteristics and ligament loading of the ankle joint. Physiologic loads approximating those at five positions in the stance phase of a normal walk cycle were applied. We analyzed joint contact pressures and periankle ligament tension concurrently. Most ankle joint loading during the stance phase occurred across the articular surfaces of the joint, and the amount of ligament tension was small. The tibiotalar articulation showed full congruency throughout most of the stance phase, with peak pressure developing anteriorly toward the toe-off frame. Of the periankle ligaments, the deep deltoid ligament transferred the most force during the stance phase (57.2%); the superficial deltoid ligament transferred the second-most force (26.1%). The anterior talofibular ligament transferred force between the talus and fibula continuously, whereas the calcaneofibular ligament did not carry force during gait. The distal tibiofibular ligaments and the interosseous membrane were loaded throughout the stance phase. Force transmission through the ankle joint during the stance phase is predominantly through the articular surfaces, and the periankle ligaments do not play a major stabilizing role in constraining ankle motion. The medial ligaments have a more important role than do the lateral ligaments in stabilizing the ankle joint. In addition to ligament insufficiency, other factors, such as varus tilt of the tibial plafond, may be important in the development of recurrent instability. Continuous loading of syndesmosis ligaments provides a theoretical basis for evidence of syndesmosis screw breakage or loosening. The analysis method has

  3. Migration of antimony from PET trays into food simulant and food: determination of Arrhenius parameters and comparison of predicted and measured migration data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haldimann, M; Alt, A; Blanc, A; Brunner, K; Sager, F; Dudler, V

    2013-01-01

    Migration experiments with small sheets cut out from ovenable PET trays were performed in two-sided contact with 3% acetic acid as food simulant at various temperatures. The fraction of diffusible antimony (Sb) was estimated to be 62% in the PET sample under study. Apparent diffusion coefficients of Sb in PET trays were determined experimentally. Measurement of migration between 20 and 150°C yielded a linear Arrhenius plot over a wide temperature range from which the activation energy (E(a)) of 188 ± 36 kJ mol(-1) and the pre-exponential factor (D(0)) of 3.6 × 10(14) cm(2) s(-1) were determined for diffusing Sb species. E (a) was similar to previously reported values for PET bottles obtained with a different experimental approach. E (a) and D (0) were applied as model parameters in migration modelling software for predicting the Sb transfer in real food. Ready meals intended for preparation in a baking oven were heated in the PET trays under study and the actual Sb migration into the food phase was measured by isotope dilution ICP-MS. It was shown that the predictive modelling reproduces correctly experimental data.

  4. Determining the Depth of Injury in Bioengineered Tissue Models of Cornea and Conjunctiva for the Prediction of All Three Ocular GHS Categories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michaela Zorn-Kruppa

    Full Text Available The depth of injury (DOI is a mechanistic correlate to the ocular irritation response. Attempts to quantitatively determine the DOI in alternative tests have been limited to ex vivo animal eyes by fluorescent staining for biomarkers of cell death and viability in histological cross sections. It was the purpose of this study to assess whether DOI could also be measured by means of cell viability detected by the MTT assay using 3-dimensional (3D reconstructed models of cornea and conjunctiva. The formazan-free area of metabolically inactive cells in the tissue after topical substance application is used as the visible correlate of the DOI. Areas of metabolically active or inactive cells are quantitatively analyzed on cryosection images with ImageJ software analysis tools. By incorporating the total tissue thickness, the relative MTT-DOI (rMTT-DOI was calculated. Using the rMTT-DOI and human reconstructed cornea equivalents, we developed a prediction model based on suitable viability cut-off values. We tested 25 chemicals that cover the whole range of eye irritation potential based on the globally harmonized system of classification and labelling of chemicals (GHS. Principally, the MTT-DOI test method allows distinguishing between the cytotoxic effects of the different chemicals in accordance with all 3 GHS categories for eye irritation. Although the prediction model is slightly over-predictive with respect to non-irritants, it promises to be highly valuable to discriminate between severe irritants (Cat. 1, and mild to moderate irritants (Cat. 2. We also tested 3D conjunctiva models with the aim to specifically address conjunctiva-damaging substances. Using the MTT-DOI method in this model delivers comparable results as the cornea model, but does not add additional information. However, the MTT-DOI method using reconstructed cornea models already provided good predictability that was superior to the already existing established in vitro/ex vivo

  5. Epitope Predictions Indicate the Presence of Two Distinct Types of Epitope-Antibody-Reactivities Determined by Epitope Profiling of Intravenous Immunoglobulins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luštrek, Mitja; Lorenz, Peter; Kreutzer, Michael; Qian, Zilliang; Steinbeck, Felix; Wu, Di; Born, Nadine; Ziems, Bjoern; Hecker, Michael; Blank, Miri; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Cao, Zhiwei; Glocker, Michael O.; Li, Yixue; Fuellen, Georg; Thiesen, Hans-Jürgen

    2013-01-01

    Epitope-antibody-reactivities (EAR) of intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIGs) determined for 75,534 peptides by microarray analysis demonstrate that roughly 9% of peptides derived from 870 different human protein sequences react with antibodies present in IVIG. Computational prediction of linear B cell epitopes was conducted using machine learning with an ensemble of classifiers in combination with position weight matrix (PWM) analysis. Machine learning slightly outperformed PWM with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.884 vs. 0.849. Two different types of epitope-antibody recognition-modes (Type I EAR and Type II EAR) were found. Peptides of Type I EAR are high in tyrosine, tryptophan and phenylalanine, and low in asparagine, glutamine and glutamic acid residues, whereas for peptides of Type II EAR it is the other way around. Representative crystal structures present in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) of Type I EAR are PDB 1TZI and PDB 2DD8, while PDB 2FD6 and 2J4W are typical for Type II EAR. Type I EAR peptides share predicted propensities for being presented by MHC class I and class II complexes. The latter interaction possibly favors T cell-dependent antibody responses including IgG class switching. Peptides of Type II EAR are predicted not to be preferentially presented by MHC complexes, thus implying the involvement of T cell-independent IgG class switch mechanisms. The high extent of IgG immunoglobulin reactivity with human peptides implies that circulating IgG molecules are prone to bind to human protein/peptide structures under non-pathological, non-inflammatory conditions. A webserver for predicting EAR of peptide sequences is available at www.sysmed-immun.eu/EAR. PMID:24244326

  6. Epitope predictions indicate the presence of two distinct types of epitope-antibody-reactivities determined by epitope profiling of intravenous immunoglobulins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitja Luštrek

    Full Text Available Epitope-antibody-reactivities (EAR of intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIGs determined for 75,534 peptides by microarray analysis demonstrate that roughly 9% of peptides derived from 870 different human protein sequences react with antibodies present in IVIG. Computational prediction of linear B cell epitopes was conducted using machine learning with an ensemble of classifiers in combination with position weight matrix (PWM analysis. Machine learning slightly outperformed PWM with area under the curve (AUC of 0.884 vs. 0.849. Two different types of epitope-antibody recognition-modes (Type I EAR and Type II EAR were found. Peptides of Type I EAR are high in tyrosine, tryptophan and phenylalanine, and low in asparagine, glutamine and glutamic acid residues, whereas for peptides of Type II EAR it is the other way around. Representative crystal structures present in the Protein Data Bank (PDB of Type I EAR are PDB 1TZI and PDB 2DD8, while PDB 2FD6 and 2J4W are typical for Type II EAR. Type I EAR peptides share predicted propensities for being presented by MHC class I and class II complexes. The latter interaction possibly favors T cell-dependent antibody responses including IgG class switching. Peptides of Type II EAR are predicted not to be preferentially presented by MHC complexes, thus implying the involvement of T cell-independent IgG class switch mechanisms. The high extent of IgG immunoglobulin reactivity with human peptides implies that circulating IgG molecules are prone to bind to human protein/peptide structures under non-pathological, non-inflammatory conditions. A webserver for predicting EAR of peptide sequences is available at www.sysmed-immun.eu/EAR.

  7. Predictive and External Validity of a Pre-Market Study to Determine the Most Effective Pictorial Health Warning Label Content for Cigarette Packages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Li-Ling; Thrasher, James F; Reid, Jessica L; Hammond, David

    2016-05-01

    Studies examining cigarette package pictorial health warning label (HWL) content have primarily used designs that do not allow determination of effectiveness after repeated, naturalistic exposure. This research aimed to determine the predictive and external validity of a pre-market evaluation study of pictorial HWLs. Data were analyzed from: (1) a pre-market convenience sample of 544 adult smokers who participated in field experiments in Mexico City before pictorial HWL implementation (September 2010); and (2) a post-market population-based representative sample of 1765 adult smokers in the Mexican administration of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey after pictorial HWL implementation. Participants in both samples rated six HWLs that appeared on cigarette packs, and also ranked HWLs with four different themes. Mixed effects models were estimated for each sample to assess ratings of relative effectiveness for the six HWLs, and to assess which HWL themes were ranked as the most effective. Pre- and post-market data showed similar relative ratings across the six HWLs, with the least and most effective HWLs consistently differentiated from other HWLs. Models predicting rankings of HWL themes in post-market sample indicated: (1) pictorial HWLs were ranked as more effective than text-only HWLs; (2) HWLs with both graphic and "lived experience" content outperformed symbolic content; and, (3) testimonial content significantly outperformed didactic content. Pre-market data showed a similar pattern of results, but with fewer statistically significant findings. The study suggests well-designed pre-market studies can have predictive and external validity, helping regulators select HWL content. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  9. The uncertainty of UTCI due to uncertainties in the determination of radiation fluxes derived from numerical weather prediction and regional climate model simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreier, Stefan F; Suomi, Irene; Bröde, Peter; Formayer, Herbert; Rieder, Harald E; Nadeem, Imram; Jendritzky, Gerd; Batchvarova, Ekaterina; Weihs, Philipp

    2013-03-01

    In this study we examine the determination accuracy of both the mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) within the scope of numerical weather prediction (NWP), and global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate model simulations. First, Tmrt is determined and the so-called UTCI-Fiala model is then used for the calculation of UTCI. Taking into account the uncertainties of NWP model (among others the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model HIRLAM) output (temperature, downwelling short-wave and long-wave radiation) stated in the literature, we simulate and discuss the uncertainties of Tmrt and UTCI at three stations in different climatic regions of Europe. The results show that highest negative (positive) differences to reference cases (under assumed clear-sky conditions) of up to -21°C (9°C) for Tmrt and up to -6°C (3.5°C) for UTCI occur in summer (winter) due to cloudiness. In a second step, the uncertainties of RCM simulations are analyzed: three RCMs, namely ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational), RegCM (REGional Climate Model) and REMO (REgional MOdel) are nested into GCMs and used for the prediction of temperature and radiation fluxes in order to estimate Tmrt and UTCI. The inter-comparison of RCM output for the three selected locations shows that biases between 0.0 and ±17.7°C (between 0.0 and ±13.3°C) for Tmrt (UTCI), and RMSE between ±0.5 and ±17.8°C (between ±0.8 and ±13.4°C) for Tmrt (UTCI) may be expected. In general the study shows that uncertainties of UTCI, due to uncertainties arising from calculations of radiation fluxes (based on NWP models) required for the prediction of Tmrt, are well below ±2°C for clear-sky cases. However, significant higher uncertainties in UTCI of up to ±6°C are found, especially when prediction of cloudiness is wrong.

  10. Determination and Prediction of Digestible and Metabolizable Energy from the Chemical Composition of Chinese Corn Gluten Feed Fed to Finishing Pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. T. Wang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Two experiments were conducted to determine the digestible energy (DE and metabolizable energy (ME contents of corn gluten feed (CGF for finishing pigs and to develop equations predicting the DE and ME content from the chemical composition of the CGF samples, as well as validate the accuracy of the prediction equations. In Exp. 1, ten CGF samples from seven provinces of China were collected and fed to 66 finishing barrows (Duroc×Landrace×Yorkshire with an initial body weight (BW of 51.9±5.5 kg. The pigs were assigned to 11 diets comprising one basal diet and 10 CGF test diets with six pigs fed each diet. The basal diet contained corn (76%, dehulled soybean meal (21% and premix (3%. The ten test diets were formulated by substituting 25% of the corn and dehulled soybean meal with CGF and contained corn (57%, dehulled soybean meal (15.75%, CGF (24.25% and premix (3%. In Exp. 2, two additional CGF sources were collected as validation samples to test the accuracy of the prediction equations. In this experiment, 18 barrows (Duroc×Landrace×Yorkshire with an initial BW of 61.1±4.0 kg were randomly allotted to be fed either the basal diet or two CGF containing diets which had a similar composition as used in Exp. 1. The DE and ME of CGF ranged from 10.37 to 12.85 MJ/kg of dry matter (DM and 9.53 to 12.49 MJ/kg of DM, respectively. Through stepwise regression analysis, several prediction equations of DE and ME were generated. The best fit equations were: DE, MJ/kg of DM = 18.30–0.13 neutral detergent fiber–0.22 ether extract, with R2 = 0.95, residual standard deviation (RSD = 0.21 and p<0.01; and ME, MJ/kg of DM = 12.82+0.11 Starch–0.26 acid detergent fiber, with R2 = 0.94, RSD = 0.20 and p<0.01. These results indicate that the DE and ME content of CGF varied substantially but the DE and ME for finishing pigs can be accurately predicted from equations based on nutritional analysis.

  11. Conserved regulatory modules in the Sox9 testis-specific enhancer predict roles for SOX, TCF/LEF, Forkhead, DMRT, and GATA proteins in vertebrate sex determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagheri-Fam, Stefan; Sinclair, Andrew H; Koopman, Peter; Harley, Vincent R

    2010-03-01

    While the primary sex determining switch varies between vertebrate species, a key downstream event in testicular development, namely the male-specific up-regulation of Sox9, is conserved. To date, only two sex determining switch genes have been identified, Sry in mammals and the Dmrt1-related gene Dmy (Dmrt1bY) in the medaka fish Oryzias latipes. In mice, Sox9 expression is evidently up-regulated by SRY and maintained by SOX9 both of which directly activate the core 1.3 kb testis-specific enhancer of Sox9 (TESCO). How Sox9 expression is up-regulated and maintained in species without Sry (i.e. non-mammalian species) is not understood. In this study, we have undertaken an in-depth comparative genomics approach and show that TESCO contains an evolutionarily conserved region (ECR) of 180 bp which is present in marsupials, monotremes, birds, reptiles and amphibians. The ECR contains highly conserved modules that predict regulatory roles for SOX, TCF/LEF, Forkhead, DMRT, and GATA proteins in vertebrate sex determination/differentiation. Our data suggest that tetrapods share common aspects of Sox9 regulation in the testis, despite having different sex determining switch mechanisms. They also suggest that Sox9 autoregulation is an ancient mechanism shared by all tetrapods, raising the possibility that in mammals, SRY evolved by mimicking this regulation. The validation of ECR regulatory sequences conserved from human to frogs will provide new insights into vertebrate sex determination. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. SU-E-T-106: Development of a Collision Prediction Algorithm for Determining Problematic Geometry for SBRT Treatments Using a Stereotactic Body Frame

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagar, M; Friesen, S; Mannarino, E [Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women' s Cancer Center, Boston, MA (United States); Hacker, F [Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women' s Cancer Center, Boston, MA (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Collision between the gantry and the couch or patient during Radiotherapy is not a common concern for conventional RT (static fields or arc). With the increase in the application of stereotactic planning techniques to the body, collisions have become a greater concern. Non-coplanar beam geometry is desirable in stereotatic treatments in order to achieve sharp gradients and a high conformality. Non-coplanar geometry is less intuitive in the body and often requires an iterative process of planning and dry runs to guarantee deliverability. Methods: Purpose written software was developed in order to predict the likelihood of collision between the head of the gantry and the couch, patient or stereotatic body frame. Using the DICOM plan and structures set, exported by the treatment planning system, this software is able to predict the possibility of a collision. Given the plan's isocenter, treatment geometry and exterior contours, the software is able to determine if a particular beam/arc is clinically deliverable or if collision is imminent. Results: The software was tested on real world treatment plans with untreatable beam geometry. Both static non-coplanar and VMAT plans were tested. Of these, the collision prediction software could identify all as having potentially problematic geometry. Re-plans of the same cases were also tested and validated as deliverable. Conclusion: This software is capable of giving good initial indication of deliverability for treatment plans that utilize complex geometry (SBRT) or have lateral isocenters. This software is not intended to replace the standard pre-treatment QA dry run. The effectiveness is limited to those portions of the patient and immobilization devices that have been included in the simulation CT and contoured in the planning system. It will however aid the planner in reducing the iterations required to create complex treatment geometries necessary to achieve ideal conformality and organ sparing.

  13. SU-E-T-106: Development of a Collision Prediction Algorithm for Determining Problematic Geometry for SBRT Treatments Using a Stereotactic Body Frame

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagar, M; Friesen, S; Mannarino, E; Hacker, F

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Collision between the gantry and the couch or patient during Radiotherapy is not a common concern for conventional RT (static fields or arc). With the increase in the application of stereotactic planning techniques to the body, collisions have become a greater concern. Non-coplanar beam geometry is desirable in stereotatic treatments in order to achieve sharp gradients and a high conformality. Non-coplanar geometry is less intuitive in the body and often requires an iterative process of planning and dry runs to guarantee deliverability. Methods: Purpose written software was developed in order to predict the likelihood of collision between the head of the gantry and the couch, patient or stereotatic body frame. Using the DICOM plan and structures set, exported by the treatment planning system, this software is able to predict the possibility of a collision. Given the plan's isocenter, treatment geometry and exterior contours, the software is able to determine if a particular beam/arc is clinically deliverable or if collision is imminent. Results: The software was tested on real world treatment plans with untreatable beam geometry. Both static non-coplanar and VMAT plans were tested. Of these, the collision prediction software could identify all as having potentially problematic geometry. Re-plans of the same cases were also tested and validated as deliverable. Conclusion: This software is capable of giving good initial indication of deliverability for treatment plans that utilize complex geometry (SBRT) or have lateral isocenters. This software is not intended to replace the standard pre-treatment QA dry run. The effectiveness is limited to those portions of the patient and immobilization devices that have been included in the simulation CT and contoured in the planning system. It will however aid the planner in reducing the iterations required to create complex treatment geometries necessary to achieve ideal conformality and organ sparing

  14. A structural equation model to predict the social-cognitive determinants related to physical activity in Iranian women with diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaeily, Habibollah; Peyman, Nooshin; Taghipour, Ali; KHorashadizadeh, Fatemeh; Mahdizadeh, Mehrsadat

    2014-01-01

    Lifestyle-modification programs including physical activity are essential for both treatment and prevention of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). However, factors associated with physical activity among patients are poorly understood. This study applied Social-Cognitive Theory (SCT) for predicting determinants of physical activity among women with T2DM in Iran, 2013. In this cross-sectional study, partial least square path modeling (PLS-PM) was used as an estimation technique for structural equation model. This model specified hypotheses between components of Social-cognitive Theory on physical activity behavior. A random sample of 300 women with T2DM was selected, and completed SCT constructs instrument. Data were analyzed using statistical software WarpPLS Ver. 4.0. The model explained 26% of the variance in physical activity. Self-regulation, task self-efficacy and barrier self-efficacy were significantly direct predictors of physical activity among women with T2DM. Task self-efficacy, social support and modeling had significantly indirect effects on physical activity behavior (P<0.001). Our findings showed evidence for adequacy of a theoretical framework that could be used to predict physical activity behavior among women with T2DM.

  15. Structural details (kinks and non-α conformations) in transmembrane helices are intrahelically determined and can be predicted by sequence pattern descriptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigoutsos, Isidore; Riek, Peter; Graham, Robert M.; Novotny, Jiri

    2003-01-01

    One of the promising methods of protein structure prediction involves the use of amino acid sequence-derived patterns. Here we report on the creation of non-degenerate motif descriptors derived through data mining of training sets of residues taken from the transmembrane-spanning segments of polytopic proteins. These residues correspond to short regions in which there is a deviation from the regular α-helical character (i.e. π-helices, 310-helices and kinks). A ‘search engine’ derived from these motif descriptors correctly identifies, and discriminates amongst instances of the above ‘non-canonical’ helical motifs contained in the SwissProt/TrEMBL database of protein primary structures. Our results suggest that deviations from α-helicity are encoded locally in sequence patterns only about 7–9 residues long and can be determined in silico directly from the amino acid sequence. Delineation of such variations in helical habit is critical to understanding the complex structure–function relationships of polytopic proteins and for drug discovery. The success of our current methodology foretells development of similar prediction tools capable of identifying other structural motifs from sequence alone. The method described here has been implemented and is available on the World Wide Web at http://cbcsrv.watson.ibm.com/Ttkw.html. PMID:12888523

  16. Structural details (kinks and non-alpha conformations) in transmembrane helices are intrahelically determined and can be predicted by sequence pattern descriptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigoutsos, Isidore; Riek, Peter; Graham, Robert M; Novotny, Jiri

    2003-08-01

    One of the promising methods of protein structure prediction involves the use of amino acid sequence-derived patterns. Here we report on the creation of non-degenerate motif descriptors derived through data mining of training sets of residues taken from the transmembrane-spanning segments of polytopic proteins. These residues correspond to short regions in which there is a deviation from the regular alpha-helical character (i.e. pi-helices, 3(10)-helices and kinks). A 'search engine' derived from these motif descriptors correctly identifies, and discriminates amongst instances of the above 'non-canonical' helical motifs contained in the SwissProt/TrEMBL database of protein primary structures. Our results suggest that deviations from alpha-helicity are encoded locally in sequence patterns only about 7-9 residues long and can be determined in silico directly from the amino acid sequence. Delineation of such variations in helical habit is critical to understanding the complex structure-function relationships of polytopic proteins and for drug discovery. The success of our current methodology foretells development of similar prediction tools capable of identifying other structural motifs from sequence alone. The method described here has been implemented and is available on the World Wide Web at http://cbcsrv.watson.ibm.com/Ttkw.html.

  17. Contrast-enhanced CT in determining resectability in patients with pancreatic carcinoma: a meta-analysis of the positive predictive values of CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somers, Inne; Bipat, Shandra [University of Amsterdam, Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2017-08-15

    To obtain a summary positive predictive value (sPPV) of contrast-enhanced CT in determining resectability. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases from JAN2005 to DEC2015 were searched and checked for inclusion criteria. Data on study design, patient characteristics, imaging techniques, image evaluation, reference standard, time interval between CT and reference standard, and data on resectability/unresectablity were extracted by two reviewers. We used a fixed-effects or random-effects approach to obtain sPPV for resectability. Several subgroups were defined: 1) bolus-triggering versus fixed-timing; 2) pancreatic and portal phases versus portal phase alone; 3) all criteria (liver metastases/lymphnode involvement/local advanced/vascular invasion) versus only vascular invasion as criteria for unresectability. Twenty-nine articles were included (2171 patients). Most studies were performed in multicentre settings, initiated by the department of radiology and retrospectively performed. The I{sup 2}-value was 68%, indicating heterogeneity of data. The sPPV was 81% (95%CI: 75-86%). False positives were mostly liver, peritoneal, or lymphnode metastases. Bolus-triggering had a slightly higher sPPV compared to fixed-timing, 87% (95%CI: 81-91%) versus 78% (95%CI: 66-86%) (p = 0.077). No differences were observed in other subgroups. This meta-analysis showed a sPPV of 81% for predicting resectability by CT, meaning that 19% of patients falsely undergo surgical exploration. (orig.)

  18. Efficacy Coefficients Determined Using Nail Permeability and Antifungal Activity in Keratin-Containing Media Are Useful for Predicting Clinical Efficacies of Topical Drugs for Onychomycosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshiki Matsuda

    Full Text Available Onychomycosis is difficult to treat topically due to the deep location of the infection under the densely keratinized nail plate. In order to obtain an in vitro index that is relevant to the clinical efficacy of topical anti-onychomycosis drugs, we profiled five topical drugs: amorolfine, ciclopirox, efinaconazole, luliconazole, and terbinafine, for their nail permeabilities, keratin affinities, and anti-dermatophytic activities in the presence of keratin. Efinaconazole and ciclopirox permeated full-thickness human nails more deeply than luliconazole. Amorolfine and terbinafine did not show any detectable permeation. The free-drug concentration of efinaconazole in a 5% human nail keratin suspension was 24.9%, which was significantly higher than those of the other drugs (1.1-3.9%. Additionally, efinaconazole was released from human nail keratin at a greater proportion than the other drugs. The MICs of the five drugs for Trichophyton rubrum were determined at various concentrations of keratin (0-20% in RPMI 1640 medium. The MICs of ciclopirox were not affected by keratin, whereas those of efinaconazole were slightly increased and those of luliconazole and terbinafine were markedly increased in the presence of 20% keratin. Efficacy coefficients were calculated using the nail permeation flux and MIC in media without or with keratin. Efinaconazole showed the highest efficacy coefficient, which was determined using MIC in media with keratin. The order of efficacy coefficients determined using MIC in keratin-containing media rather than keratin-free media was consistent with that of complete cure rates in previously reported clinical trials. The present study revealed that efficacy coefficients determined using MIC in keratin-containing media are useful for predicting the clinical efficacies of topical drugs. In order to be more effective, topical drugs have to possess higher efficacy coefficients.

  19. How can the health belief model and self-determination theory predict both influenza vaccination and vaccination intention ? A longitudinal study among university students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fall, Estelle; Izaute, Marie; Chakroun-Baggioni, Nadia

    2017-12-05

    Background and objective Seasonal influenza is frequent among students and often responsible for impaired academic performance and lower levels of general health. However, the vaccination rate in this population is very low. As the seasonal influenza vaccine is not compulsory in France, it is important to improve the vaccination uptake by identifying predictors of both intention and behaviour. This study investigated the effect of decisional balance, motivation and self-efficacy on vaccination acceptance using the Extended Health Belief Model (HBM) and Self-Determination Theory (SDT). Design and Main Outcome Measures University students were invited to fill in an online survey to answer questions about their influenza vaccination intention, and HBM and SDT constructs. A one-year longitudinal follow-up study investigated vaccination behaviour. Results Autonomous motivation and self-efficacy significantly influenced the intention to have the influenza vaccine, and vaccine behaviour at one-year follow-up. Intention predicted a significant proportion of variation (51%) in behaviour, and mediated the effect of these predictors on vaccination behaviour. Conclusion These results suggest that motivation concepts of the Self-Determination Theory can be adequately combined with the Health Belief Model to understand vaccination behaviour.

  20. Moisture content prediction in poultry litter using artificial intelligence techniques and Monte Carlo simulation to determine the economic yield from energy use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico-Contreras, José Octavio; Aguilar-Lasserre, Alberto Alfonso; Méndez-Contreras, Juan Manuel; López-Andrés, Jhony Josué; Cid-Chama, Gabriela

    2017-11-01

    The objective of this study is to determine the economic return of poultry litter combustion in boilers to produce bioenergy (thermal and electrical), as this biomass has a high-energy potential due to its component elements, using fuzzy logic to predict moisture and identify the high-impact variables. This is carried out using a proposed 7-stage methodology, which includes a statistical analysis of agricultural systems and practices to identify activities contributing to moisture in poultry litter (for example, broiler chicken management, number of air extractors, and avian population density), and thereby reduce moisture to increase the yield of the combustion process. Estimates of poultry litter production and heating value are made based on 4 different moisture content percentages (scenarios of 25%, 30%, 35%, and 40%), and then a risk analysis is proposed using the Monte Carlo simulation to select the best investment alternative and to estimate the environmental impact for greenhouse gas mitigation. The results show that dry poultry litter (25%) is slightly better for combustion, generating 3.20% more energy. Reducing moisture from 40% to 25% involves considerable economic investment due to the purchase of equipment to reduce moisture; thus, when calculating financial indicators, the 40% scenario is the most attractive, as it is the current scenario. Thus, this methodology proposes a technology approach based on the use of advanced tools to predict moisture and representation of the system (Monte Carlo simulation), where the variability and uncertainty of the system are accurately represented. Therefore, this methodology is considered generic for any bioenergy generation system and not just for the poultry sector, whether it uses combustion or another type of technology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. 8-Quinolineboronic acid as a potential phosphorescent molecular switch for the determination of alpha-fetoprotein variant for the prediction of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Jiaming; Li Feiming; Liu Zhenbo; Lin Changqing; Lin Shaoqin; Lin Liping; Wang Xinxing; Li Zhiming

    2010-01-01

    8-Quinolineboronic acid phosphorescent molecular switch (8-QBA-PMS) in the 'off' state emitted weak room temperature phosphorescence (RTP) of 8-QBA on the acetylcellulose membrane (ACM) with the perturbation of Pb 2+ . When 8-QBA-PMS was used to label concanavalin agglutinin (Con A) to form 8-QBA-PMS-Con A based on the reaction between -OH of 8-QBA-PMS and -COOH of Con A, 8-QBA-PMS turned 'on' automatically due to its structure change, and RTP of the system increased 2.7 times. Besides, -NH 2 of 8-QBA-PMS-Con A could carry out affinity adsorption (AA) reaction with the -COOH of alpha-fetoprotein variant (AFP-V) to form the product Con A-AFP-V-Con A-8-QBA-PMS containing -NH-CO- bond, causing the RTP of the system to further increase. Moreover, the amount of AFP-V was linear to the ΔI p of the system in the range of 0.012-2.40 (fg spot -1 ). Thus, a new affinity sensitive adsorption solid substrate room temperature phosphorimetry using 8-QBA-PMS as labelling reagent (8-QBA-PMS-AASSRTP) for the determination of AFP-V was proposed with the detection limit (LD) of 9 x 10 -15 g mL -1 . It had been used to determine AFP-V in human serum with the results agreeing with enzyme-link immunoassay (ELISA), showing promise for the prediction of PHC due to the intimate association between AFP-V and primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHC). The mechanism of the promethod was also discussed.

  2. A Whole Genome Assembly of the Horn Fly, Haematobia irritans, and Prediction of Genes with Roles in Metabolism and Sex Determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konganti, Kranti; Guerrero, Felix D; Schilkey, Faye; Ngam, Peter; Jacobi, Jennifer L; Umale, Pooja E; Perez de Leon, Adalberto A; Threadgill, David W

    2018-03-30

    Haematobia irritans , commonly known as the horn fly, is a globally distributed blood-feeding pest of cattle that is responsible for significant economic losses to cattle producers. Chemical insecticides are the primary means for controlling this pest but problems with insecticide resistance have become common in the horn fly. To provide a foundation for identification of genomic loci for insecticide resistance and for discovery of new control technology, we report the sequencing, assembly, and annotation of the horn fly genome. The assembled genome is 1.14 Gb, comprising 76,616 scaffolds with N50 scaffold length of 23 Kb. Using RNA-Seq data, we have predicted 34,413 gene models of which 19,185 have been assigned functional annotations. Comparative genomics analysis with the Dipteran flies Musca domestica L., Drosophila melanogaster , and Lucilia cuprina , show that the horn fly is most closely related to M. domestica , sharing 8,748 orthologous clusters followed by D. melanogaster and L. cuprina , sharing 7,582 and 7,490 orthologous clusters respectively. We also identified a gene locus for the sodium channel protein in which mutations have been previously reported that confers target site resistance to the most common class of pesticides used in fly control. Additionally, we identified 276 genomic loci encoding members of metabolic enzyme gene families such as cytochrome P450s, esterases and glutathione S-transferases, and several genes orthologous to sex determination pathway genes in other Dipteran species. Copyright © 2018, G3: Genes, Genomes, Genetics.

  3. Analysis of Vegetation Indices to Determine Nitrogen Application and Yield Prediction in Maize (Zea mays L. from a Standard UAV Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel Maresma

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The growing use of commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV and the need to adjust N fertilization rates in maize (Zea mays L. currently constitute a key research issue. In this study, different multispectral vegetation indices (green-band and red-band based indices, SPAD and crop height (derived from a multispectral compact camera mounted on a UAV were analysed to predict grain yield and determine whether an additional sidedress application of N fertilizer was required just before flowering. Seven different inorganic N rates (0, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 400 kg·N·ha−1, two different pig slurry manure rates (Ps (150 or 250 kg·N·ha−1 and four different inorganic-organic N combinations (N100Ps150, N100Ps250, N200Ps150, N200Ps250 were applied to maize experimental plots. The spectral index that best explained final grain yield for the N treatments was the Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRVI. It identified a key threshold above/below 250–300 kg·N·ha−1. WDRVI, NDVI and crop height showed no significant response to extra N application at the economic optimum rate of fertilization (239.8 kg·N·ha−1, for which a grain yield of 16.12 Mg·ha−1 was obtained. This demonstrates their potential as yield predictors at V12 stage. Finally, a ranking of different vegetation indices and crop height is proposed to overcome the uncertainty associated with basing decisions on a single index.

  4. Predicting flowering behavior and exploring its genetic determinism in an apple multi-family population based on statistical indices and simplified phenotyping

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Durand, Jean Baptiste; Allard, Alix; Guitton, Baptiste; Weg, van de Eric; Bink, Marco C.A.M.; Costes, Evelyne

    2017-01-01

    Irregular flowering over years is commonly observed in fruit trees. The early prediction of tree behavior is highly desirable in breeding programmes. This study aims at performing such predictions, combining simplified phenotyping and statistics methods. Sequences of vegetative vs. floral annual

  5. Climate prediction and predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  6. Comparison of NUPIPE-II and SAP IV predicted and experimentally determined dynamic structural responses for German Standard Problem 4a. [BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dooley, W.T.; Mosby, W.R.

    1983-01-01

    This paper presents comparisons between two computer code predictions and experimental measurements of the structural response of a pipe line/check valve system subjected to loading from a loss of feedwater transient. The piping system that was modeled and instrumented for measurement was the focus of German Standard Problem 4a; part of the Heissdampfreaktor Safety Program being conducted in the Federal Republic of Germany. The availability of their experimental data offered EG and G a unique opportunity to evaluate two structural codes' predictions, to compare them with each other, and to compare their predictions with the actual measured values of acceleration and displacement. A thermal-hydrualic code, SOLA-LOOP, computed the hydraulic behavior of the system. The hydraulic forcing functions were calculated and placed into the structural codes, NUPIPE-II and SAP IV. It was concluded that both computer programs provided comparable, realistic predictions of the piping system dynamic response to a blowdown load.

  7. Determination of the predictive factors of long-lasting insecticide-treated net ownership and utilisation in the Bamenda Health District of Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric B. Fokam

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a serious health concern in Africa. In Cameroon, an endemic country where malaria remains a major public health problem, several control measures have been put in place among which the use of insecticide-treated bednets (LLINs/ITNs is considered one of the core vector control strategies. However, the greatest challenges include ownership and utilisation by individuals and households. Factors such as age, marital status, gender, education and occupation of the household head, household size, knowledge of bednets, socioeconomic status, and environmental factors have been suggested to have an impact on bednet ownership and utilisation in different settings. The present study sought to determine bednet ownership and utilisation rates and to assess the impact of predictive factors on bednet ownership and use in the Bamenda Health District (BHD of Cameroon. Methods A cross-sectional study involving 384 households was conducted in six health areas in the BHD. A structured and semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect data on demographic and household characteristics as well as information on their bednet ownership and utilisation. Descriptive statistics, bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed. Results Frequency of bednet ownership was relatively high (63.5% with LLINs being most abundant (91.9%; the majority of households (87.7% obtained their bednets during the 2011 free distribution campaign. Utilisation was relatively high (69.3%, with negligence (29.3% and heat discomfort (26.7% accounting most for non-usage of bednets. Children less than 5 years (63% and pregnant women (60% most often used these nets. Households headed by a married couple, those with older household heads, household with smaller size (5–12 persons, and knowledge of bednets (good knowledge had positive impacts on bednet ownership (p < 0.05. The gender of the household head (males, their educational level

  8. Predicting Flowering Behavior and Exploring Its Genetic Determinism in an Apple Multi-family Population Based on Statistical Indices and Simplified Phenotyping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, Jean-Baptiste; Allard, Alix; Guitton, Baptiste; van de Weg, Eric; Bink, Marco C A M; Costes, Evelyne

    2017-01-01

    Irregular flowering over years is commonly observed in fruit trees. The early prediction of tree behavior is highly desirable in breeding programmes. This study aims at performing such predictions, combining simplified phenotyping and statistics methods. Sequences of vegetative vs. floral annual shoots (AS) were observed along axes in trees belonging to five apple related full-sib families. Sequences were analyzed using Markovian and linear mixed models including year and site effects. Indices of flowering irregularity, periodicity and synchronicity were estimated, at tree and axis scales. They were used to predict tree behavior and detect QTL with a Bayesian pedigree-based analysis, using an integrated genetic map containing 6,849 SNPs. The combination of a Biennial Bearing Index (BBI) with an autoregressive coefficient (γ g ) efficiently predicted and classified the genotype behaviors, despite few misclassifications. Four QTLs common to BBIs and γ g and one for synchronicity were highlighted and revealed the complex genetic architecture of the traits. Irregularity resulted from high AS synchronism, whereas regularity resulted from either asynchronous locally alternating or continual regular AS flowering. A relevant and time-saving method, based on a posteriori sampling of axes and statistical indices is proposed, which is efficient to evaluate the tree breeding values for flowering regularity and could be transferred to other species.

  9. Predicting Flowering Behavior and Exploring Its Genetic Determinism in an Apple Multi-family Population Based on Statistical Indices and Simplified Phenotyping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Baptiste Durand

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Irregular flowering over years is commonly observed in fruit trees. The early prediction of tree behavior is highly desirable in breeding programmes. This study aims at performing such predictions, combining simplified phenotyping and statistics methods. Sequences of vegetative vs. floral annual shoots (AS were observed along axes in trees belonging to five apple related full-sib families. Sequences were analyzed using Markovian and linear mixed models including year and site effects. Indices of flowering irregularity, periodicity and synchronicity were estimated, at tree and axis scales. They were used to predict tree behavior and detect QTL with a Bayesian pedigree-based analysis, using an integrated genetic map containing 6,849 SNPs. The combination of a Biennial Bearing Index (BBI with an autoregressive coefficient (γg efficiently predicted and classified the genotype behaviors, despite few misclassifications. Four QTLs common to BBIs and γg and one for synchronicity were highlighted and revealed the complex genetic architecture of the traits. Irregularity resulted from high AS synchronism, whereas regularity resulted from either asynchronous locally alternating or continual regular AS flowering. A relevant and time-saving method, based on a posteriori sampling of axes and statistical indices is proposed, which is efficient to evaluate the tree breeding values for flowering regularity and could be transferred to other species.

  10. Cervical Radiculopathy and Carpal Tunnel Syndrome: A Prospective Determination of the Reliability, Diagnostic Accuracy, and Predictive Validity fo Commonly Used Clinical

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-09-28

    Patients with cervical radiculopathy and carpal tunnel syndrome result in significant medical and occupational costs annually. There is a need to...of diagnostic accuracy. and predictive validity of items of the clinical examination used for the diagnosis of cervical radiculopathy and carpal tunnel syndrome.

  11. Determining risk of severe gastrointestinal toxicity based on pretreatment gut microbial community in patients receiving cancer treatment : a new predictive strategy in the quest for personalized cancer medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardill, Hannah R.; Tissing, Wim J. E.

    Purpose of review Currently, our ability to accurately predict a patient's risk of developing severe gastrointestinal toxicity from their cancer treatment is limited. Risk stratification continues to rely on traditional patient-related and treatment-related factors including age, ethnicity, sex,

  12. Early Nonresponse Determined by the Clinical Global Impressions Scale Predicts Poorer Outcomes in Youth with Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders Naturalistically Treated with Second-Generation Antipsychotics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stentebjerg-Olesen, Marie; Jeppesen, Pia; Pagsberg, Anne K

    2013-01-01

    , treated naturalistically with aripiprazole, olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, or ziprasidone and evaluated monthly, were divided into ER/ENR groups at week 4, using at least "minimally improved" on the CGI-I scale. Prediction using week 4 ER/ENR status for UR (CGI-I=at least "much improved...

  13. Improved Prediction of Bovine Leucocyte Antigens (BoLA) Presented Ligands by Use of Mass-Spectrometry-Determined Ligand and in Vitro Binding Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Connelley, Tim; Ternette, Nicola

    2018-01-01

    of the data. We here outline a general pipeline for dealing with this challenge and accurately annotate ligands to the relevant MHC-I molecule they were eluted from by use of GibbsClustering and binding motif information inferred from in silico models. We illustrate the approach here in the context of MHC......, and predictors of peptide-MHC interactions constitute an attractive alternative. Recently, an increasing amount of MHC presented peptides identified by mass spectrometry (MS ligands) has been published. Handling and interpretation of MS ligand data is, in general, challenging due to the polyspecificity nature......-I molecules (BoLA) of cattle. Next, we demonstrate how such annotated BoLA MS ligand data can readily be integrated with in vitro binding affinity data in a prediction model with very high and unprecedented performance for identification of BoLA-I restricted T-cell epitopes. The prediction model is freely...

  14. Obesity in young-adult Nigerians: variations in prevalence determined by anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance analysis, and the development of % body fat prediction equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ejike Chukwunonso ECC

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Overweight/obesity is a growing global public health concern. The variations in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, defined by Body Mass Index (BMI, Waist Circumference (WC, Waist-to-Height Ratio (WHtR, Waist-to-Hip Ratio (WHpR and Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA, were studied and a prediction equation for % body fat (%BF developed. Methods A total of 1584 subjects (56.4% males were recruited for the study. Data on age, gender, height, weight, hip circumference and WC were collected from the subjects using standard protocols. BMI, WHtR and WHpR were derived using standard equations. %BF was measured using a BIA device (Omron BF-400. Appropriate statistical tools were used for the data analysis. Results The prevalence of overweight/obesity in the population was 28.4% (36.3% for males; 22.6% for females (BIA; 20.7% (17.5% for males; 24.8% for females (BMI; 7.5% (1.3% for males; 16.1% for females (WC; 2.9% (4.3% for males; 1.2% for females (WHpR; and 15.4% (14.8% for males; 16.2% females (WHtR. Taking BIA as the reference point, WC misclassified overweight/obesity the most for males (35%, while for the females, WHpR misclassified both disorders the most (21.4%. Correlation studies showed that only BMI correlated significantly, albeit weakly, with %BF among the males, whereas all the anthropometric measures, but WHpR correlated significantly with % body fat in females. Two prediction equations for %BF were generated, and %BF predicted with the two equations correlated significantly (P  Conclusion The prevalence of overweight/obesity in this population vary widely depending on the definition used. The developed prediction equations could be useful in resource-poor settings, but require validation.

  15. Ebulliometric determination and prediction of (vapor + liquid) equilibria for binary and ternary mixtures containing alcohols (C{sub 1}-C{sub 4}) and dimethyl carbonate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuda, Hiroyuki, E-mail: matsuda@chem.cst.nihon-u.ac.jp [Department of Materials and Applied Chemistry, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Fukano, Makoto; Kikkawa, Shinichiro [Department of Materials and Applied Chemistry, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Constantinescu, Dana [Carl von Ossietzky Universitaet Oldenburg, Technische Chemie, D-26111 Oldenburg (Germany); Kurihara, Kiyofumi; Tochigi, Katsumi; Ochi, Kenji [Department of Materials and Applied Chemistry, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Gmehling, Juergen [Carl von Ossietzky Universitaet Oldenburg, Technische Chemie, D-26111 Oldenburg (Germany)

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: > The VLE behavior of systems containing dimethyl carbonate (DMC) was investigated. > VLE data for ternary and binary mixtures containing alcohol and DMC were measured. > Several activity coefficient models were used for data reduction or prediction. > Valley line, i.e., distillation boundary, was observed for the ternary mixture. > Residue curves were calculated to investigate composition profile for distillation. - Abstract: (Vapor + liquid) equilibrium (VLE) data for a ternary mixture, namely {l_brace}methanol + propan-1-ol + dimethyl carbonate (DMC){r_brace}, and four binary mixtures, namely an {l_brace}alcohol (C{sub 3} or C{sub 4}) + DMC{r_brace}, containing the binary constituent mixtures of the ternary mixture, were measured at p = (40.00 to 93.32) kPa using a modified Swietoslawski-type ebulliometer. The experimental data for the binary systems were correlated using the Wilson model. The Wilson model was also applied to the ternary system to predict the VLE behavior using parameters from the binary mixtures. The modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) model was also tested for the predictions of the VLE behavior of the binary and ternary mixtures. In addition, the experimental VLE data for the ternary and constituent binary mixtures were correlated using the extended Redlich-Kister (ERK) model, which can completely represent the azeotropic points. For the ternary system, a comparison of the experimental and the predicted or correlated boiling points obtained using the Wilson and ERK models showed that the ERK model is more accurate. The valley line, i.e., the curve which divides the patterns of vapor-liquid tie lines, was found in the (methanol + propan-1-ol + DMC) system. This valley line could be represented by the ERK model. Finally, the composition profile for simple distillation of this ternary mixture was obtained by analysis of the residue curves from the estimated Wilson parameters of the constituent binary mixtures.

  16. Ebulliometric determination and prediction of (vapor + liquid) equilibria for binary and ternary mixtures containing alcohols (C1-C4) and dimethyl carbonate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Fukano, Makoto; Kikkawa, Shinichiro; Constantinescu, Dana; Kurihara, Kiyofumi; Tochigi, Katsumi; Ochi, Kenji; Gmehling, Juergen

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: → The VLE behavior of systems containing dimethyl carbonate (DMC) was investigated. → VLE data for ternary and binary mixtures containing alcohol and DMC were measured. → Several activity coefficient models were used for data reduction or prediction. → Valley line, i.e., distillation boundary, was observed for the ternary mixture. → Residue curves were calculated to investigate composition profile for distillation. - Abstract: (Vapor + liquid) equilibrium (VLE) data for a ternary mixture, namely {methanol + propan-1-ol + dimethyl carbonate (DMC)}, and four binary mixtures, namely an {alcohol (C 3 or C 4 ) + DMC}, containing the binary constituent mixtures of the ternary mixture, were measured at p = (40.00 to 93.32) kPa using a modified Swietoslawski-type ebulliometer. The experimental data for the binary systems were correlated using the Wilson model. The Wilson model was also applied to the ternary system to predict the VLE behavior using parameters from the binary mixtures. The modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) model was also tested for the predictions of the VLE behavior of the binary and ternary mixtures. In addition, the experimental VLE data for the ternary and constituent binary mixtures were correlated using the extended Redlich-Kister (ERK) model, which can completely represent the azeotropic points. For the ternary system, a comparison of the experimental and the predicted or correlated boiling points obtained using the Wilson and ERK models showed that the ERK model is more accurate. The valley line, i.e., the curve which divides the patterns of vapor-liquid tie lines, was found in the (methanol + propan-1-ol + DMC) system. This valley line could be represented by the ERK model. Finally, the composition profile for simple distillation of this ternary mixture was obtained by analysis of the residue curves from the estimated Wilson parameters of the constituent binary mixtures.

  17. Test cell data-based predictive modelling to determine HVAC energy consumption for three façade solutions in Madrid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Guerrero-Rubio

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to narrow the gap between predicted and actual energy performance in buildings. Predictive models were established that relate the electric consumption by HVAC systems to maintain certain indoor environmental conditions in variable weather to the type of façade. The models were developed using data gathered from test cells with adiabatic envelopes on all but the façade to be tested. Three façade types were studied. The first, the standard solution, consisted in a double wythe brick wall with an intermediate air space, the configuration most commonly deployed in multi-family dwellings built in Spain between 1940 and 1980 (prior to the enactment of the first building codes that limited overall energy demand in buildings. The other two were retrofits frequently found in such buildings: ventilated façades and ETICS (external thermal insulation composite systems. Two predictive models were designed for each type of façade, one for summer and the other for winter. The linear regression equations and the main statistical parameters are reported.

  18. The sensitivity of Secondary Organic Aerosol component partitioning to the predictions of component properties – Part 2: Determination of particle hygroscopicity and its dependence on "apparent" volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O. Topping

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A large number of calculations of absorptive partitioning of organic compounds have been conducted, making use of several methods to estimate pure component vapour pressures and activity coefficients (p0 and γi. The sensitivities of the predicted particle properties (density, hygroscopicity, CCN activation potential to the choice of p0 and γi models and to the number of components used to represent the organic mixture have been systematically compared.

    The variability in theoretical hygroscopic growth factor attributable to the choice of estimation technique increases with decreasing mixture complexity. Generally there is low sensitivity to the choice of vapour pressure predictive technique. The inclusion of non-ideality is responsible for a larger difference in predicted growth factor, though still relatively minor.

    Assuming instantaneous equilibration of all semi-volatile on drying the aerosol to 0 % RH massively increases the sensitivity. Without such re-equilibration, the calculated growth factors are comparable to the low hygroscopicity of organic material widely measured in the laboratory and atmosphere. Allowing re-equilibration on drying produces a calculated hygroscopicity greater than measured for ambient organic material, and frequently close to those of common inorganic salts. Such a result has substantial implications on aerosol behaviour in instruments designed to measure hygroscopicity and on the degree of equilibration of semi-volatile components in the ambient atmosphere.

    The impacts of this variability on behaviour of particles as cloud condensation nuclei, on predicted cloud droplet number and uncertainty in radiative forcing are explored. When it is assumed only water evaporates on drying, the sensitivity in radiative forcing, "ΔF" to choice of p0 and γi estimation technique is low

  19. The sensitivity of Secondary Organic Aerosol component partitioning to the predictions of component properties - Part 2: Determination of particle hygroscopicity and its dependence on "apparent" volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, D. O.; Barley, M. H.; McFiggans, G.

    2011-08-01

    A large number of calculations of absorptive partitioning of organic compounds have been conducted, making use of several methods to estimate pure component vapour pressures and activity coefficients (p0 and γi). The sensitivities of the predicted particle properties (density, hygroscopicity, CCN activation potential) to the choice of p0 and γi models and to the number of components used to represent the organic mixture have been systematically compared. The variability in theoretical hygroscopic growth factor attributable to the choice of estimation technique increases with decreasing mixture complexity. Generally there is low sensitivity to the choice of vapour pressure predictive technique. The inclusion of non-ideality is responsible for a larger difference in predicted growth factor, though still relatively minor. Assuming instantaneous equilibration of all semi-volatile on drying the aerosol to 0 % RH massively increases the sensitivity. Without such re-equilibration, the calculated growth factors are comparable to the low hygroscopicity of organic material widely measured in the laboratory and atmosphere. Allowing re-equilibration on drying produces a calculated hygroscopicity greater than measured for ambient organic material, and frequently close to those of common inorganic salts. Such a result has substantial implications on aerosol behaviour in instruments designed to measure hygroscopicity and on the degree of equilibration of semi-volatile components in the ambient atmosphere. The impacts of this variability on behaviour of particles as cloud condensation nuclei, on predicted cloud droplet number and uncertainty in radiative forcing are explored. When it is assumed only water evaporates on drying, the sensitivity in radiative forcing, "ΔF" to choice of p0 and γi estimation technique is low when the particle organic volume fraction is less than 55 %. Sensitivities increase with decreasing component complexity. If all components re-equilibrate on

  20. Social psychological determinants of mobile communication technology use and adoption. A comparison of three models to explain and predict mobile communication technology behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, O.

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the social psychological determinants of mobile communication technology use and adoption in an attempt to better understand people’s behavior for adopting and using innovative information and communication technologies. In particular, this study emphasizes the

  1. A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haydock, L A J; Pomroy, W E; Stevenson, M A; Lawrence, K E

    2016-09-15

    Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (p0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (phepatica infection risk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming following climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Determination of the Predictive role of Self-Regulation and Self-Control on Intemperate Use of Cell Phones by Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pourrazavi

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction & Objective: Regarding increasing the rate of cell phones use and its' subsequent dependency in such instrument among young people and also considering the important role of self-regulation and self-control traits on health related issues and the roles of such issues in problematic and addictive behaviors, this study has been designed to evaluate the predictive role of self-regulation and self-control on the intemperate use of cell phone and its related de-pendencies. Materials & Methods: This study was a cross-sectional study with analytical and descriptive orientation which has been carried out the students of universities which were located in the Tabriz city, Iran in 2013. Data were gathered through a questionnaire that was filled by 476 students (190 male and 286 female. Participants were selected through a multi-stage cluster sampling method from 9 universities in Tabriz. Data analysis was performed by SPSS version 21 and Mplus software version 6.2. Results: Results showed that the predictive effect of self-regulation (P= 0.19 and self-control (P=0.41 on intemperate cell phone use was not significant, hence the increase of one unit in self-regulation and self-control respectively reduced 42.0, 87.0 dependency in cell phone. Conclusion: The present study could not demonstrate the predictive effect of self-regulation and self-control on intemperate cell phones use, however, the results showed that the meas-ures were relatively correlated with dependency in cell phone and therefore further researches seem to be necessary in this field.(Sci J Hamadan Univ Med Sci 2015; 22 (2: 152-160

  3. Obesity in young-adult Nigerians: variations in prevalence determined by anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance analysis, and the development of % body fat prediction equations

    OpenAIRE

    Ejike, Chukwunonso ECC; Ijeh, Ifeoma I

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Overweight/obesity is a growing global public health concern. The variations in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, defined by Body Mass Index (BMI), Waist Circumference (WC), Waist-to-Height Ratio (WHtR), Waist-to-Hip Ratio (WHpR) and Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA), were studied and a prediction equation for % body fat (%BF) developed. Methods A total of 1584 subjects (56.4% males) were recruited for the study. Data on age, gender, height, weight, hip circumfere...

  4. Determining 1-Yr Prosthetic Use for Mobility Prognoses for Community-Dwelling Adults with Lower-Limb Amputation: Development of a Clinical Prediction Rule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christopher Kevin; Young, Rebecca S; Ow-Wing, Carlyn; Karimi, Parisa

    2016-05-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a prognostic clinical prediction rule to identify people not achieving community walking level prosthetic use after 1 yr. This is a prospective longitudinal cohort study of community-dwelling adults with lower-limb amputations recruited from support groups and prosthetic clinics. Participants completed Activities-specific Balance Confidence and Houghton prosthetic use for mobility self-report scales and the Berg Balance Scale. The clinical prediction rule was developed using multivariate logistic regression, receiver operating curves, and probability statistics to identify people not achieving community walking level prosthetic use (Houghton scores prosthetic walking level with excellent accuracy (area under the curve >0.96) using four criteria: initial Houghton, Activities-specific Balance Confidence, and Berg Balance Scale tasks 9 (retrieve object from floor) and 10 (look behind over shoulders). Failure to exceed cutoff scores in two or more criteria yielded posttest probability of not reaching community walking prosthetic use 1 yr later for 90% of participants or higher. Accurate 1-yr prosthetic use for mobility prognoses can be obtained by screening prosthetic use, balance confidence, and balance ability to identify community-dwelling people with lower-limb amputations unlikely to achieve community walking prosthetic use.

  5. Predicting electroporation of cells in an inhomogeneous electric field based on mathematical modeling and experimental CHO-cell permeabilization to propidium iodide determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dermol, Janja; Miklavčič, Damijan

    2014-12-01

    High voltage electric pulses cause electroporation of the cell membrane. Consequently, flow of the molecules across the membrane increases. In our study we investigated possibility to predict the percentage of the electroporated cells in an inhomogeneous electric field on the basis of the experimental results obtained when cells were exposed to a homogeneous electric field. We compared and evaluated different mathematical models previously suggested by other authors for interpolation of the results (symmetric sigmoid, asymmetric sigmoid, hyperbolic tangent and Gompertz curve). We investigated the density of the cells and observed that it has the most significant effect on the electroporation of the cells while all four of the mathematical models yielded similar results. We were able to predict electroporation of cells exposed to an inhomogeneous electric field based on mathematical modeling and using mathematical formulations of electroporation probability obtained experimentally using exposure to the homogeneous field of the same density of cells. Models describing cell electroporation probability can be useful for development and presentation of treatment planning for electrochemotherapy and non-thermal irreversible electroporation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Impact of determination of hepatitis B virus subgenotype and pre-core/core-promoter mutation for the prediction of acute exacerbation of asymptomatic carriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikegami, Tadashi; Matsuki, Yasuhiko; Tanaka, Yasuhito; Mizokami, Masashi; Honda, Akira; Hirayama, Takeshi; Saito, Yoshifumi; Matsuzaki, Yasushi

    2009-04-01

    A large cohort study in Japan revealed that the specific viral profile may influence the fulminant outcome in acute hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections, while the genetic influence on outcome has not been clarified in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic liver disease caused by HBV. We experienced a case of fatal liver failure that developed as the result of chronic HBV infection. To determine possible genetic factor involving acute exacerbation, genetic analysis of serum from the patient and his siblings was performed. HBV subgenotype as well as pre-core/core-promoter mutations of samples mentioned above were determined. Patient had HBV-Bj with pre-core (1896/1899) and core-promoter (1762/1764) mutations, the genomic profile frequently seen in fulminant hepatitis caused by acute HBV infection. This result suggests that determination of the HBV subgenotype and pre-core/core promoter mutations could provide a rationale for development of a treatment strategy in asymptomatic HBV carriers.

  7. The potential of platinum-DNA adduct determination in ex vivo treated tumor fragments for the prediction of sensitivity to cisplatin chemotherapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Welters, M.J.P.; Braakhuis, B.J.M.; Jacobs-Bergmans, A.J.; Kegel, A.; Baan, R.A.; Vijgh, W.J.F. van der; Fichtinger-Schepman, A.M.J.

    1999-01-01

    Background: Response to cisplatin-therapy is assumed to be related to the formation of platinum (Pt)-DNA adducts. Measurement of these adducts prior to therapy could be of value to improve cisplatin based cancer therapy. Materials and methods: We determined Pt-GG and Pt-AG adduct levels by use of

  8. Determination of the optimal training principle and input variables in artificial neural network model for the biweekly chlorophyll-a prediction: a case study of the Yuqiao Reservoir, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang

    2015-01-01

    Predicting the levels of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is a vital component of water quality management, which ensures that urban drinking water is safe from harmful algal blooms. This study developed a model to predict Chl-a levels in the Yuqiao Reservoir (Tianjin, China) biweekly using water quality and meteorological data from 1999-2012. First, six artificial neural networks (ANNs) and two non-ANN methods (principal component analysis and the support vector regression model) were compared to determine the appropriate training principle. Subsequently, three predictors with different input variables were developed to examine the feasibility of incorporating meteorological factors into Chl-a prediction, which usually only uses water quality data. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine how the Chl-a predictor reacts to changes in input variables. The results were as follows: first, ANN is a powerful predictive alternative to the traditional modeling techniques used for Chl-a prediction. The back program (BP) model yields slightly better results than all other ANNs, with the normalized mean square error (NMSE), the correlation coefficient (Corr), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) at 0.003 mg/l, 0.880 and 0.754, respectively, in the testing period. Second, the incorporation of meteorological data greatly improved Chl-a prediction compared to models solely using water quality factors or meteorological data; the correlation coefficient increased from 0.574-0.686 to 0.880 when meteorological data were included. Finally, the Chl-a predictor is more sensitive to air pressure and pH compared to other water quality and meteorological variables.

  9. Modeling of Salivary Production Recovery After Radiotherapy Using Mixed Models: Determination of Optimal Dose Constraint for IMRT Planning and Construction of Convenient Tools to Predict Salivary Function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortholan, Cecile; Chamorey, Emmanuel Phar; Benezery, Karen; Thariat, Juliette; Dassonville, Olivier; Poissonnet, Gilles; Bozec, Alexandre; Follana, Philippe; Peyrade, Frederique; Sudaka, Anne; Gerard, Jean Pierre; Bensadoun, Rene Jean

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The mathematical relationship between the dose to the parotid glands and salivary gland production needs to be elucidated. This study, which included data from patients included in a French prospective study assessing the benefit of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (RT), sought to elaborate a convenient and original model of salivary recovery. Methods and Materials: Between January 2001 and December 2004, 44 patients were included (35 with oropharyngeal and 9 with nasopharyngeal cancer). Of the 44 patients, 24 were treated with intensity-modulated RT, 17 with three-dimensional conformal RT, and 2 with two-dimensional RT. Stimulated salivary production was collected for ≤24 months after RT. The data of salivary production, time of follow-up, and dose to parotid gland were modeled using a mixed model. Several models were developed to assess the best-fitting variable for the dose level to the parotid gland. Results: Models developed with the dose to the contralateral parotid fit the data slightly better than those with the dose to both parotids, suggesting that contralateral and ipsilateral parotid glands are not functionally equivalent even with the same dose level to the glands. The best predictive dose-value variable for salivary flow recovery was the volume of the contralateral parotid gland receiving >40 Gy. Conclusion: The results of this study show that the recommendation of a dose constraint for intensity-modulated RT planning should be established at the volume of the contralateral parotid gland receiving >40 Gy rather than the mean dose. For complete salivary production recovery after 24 months, the volume of the contralateral parotid gland receiving >40 Gy should be <33%. Our results permitted us to establish two convenient tools to predict the saliva production recovery function according to the dose received by the contralateral parotid gland

  10. ENSO Prediction and Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    In 1986 there was one dynamical forecasting model for ENSO and a small handful of statistical and hybrid schemes. Now there are more than 40 models in the IRI-CPC forecast plume, many of them coupled GCMs. Why hasn't forecasting improved more in 30 years? In a 1982 landmark paper, Rasmussen and Carpenter created the canonical El Niño, transforming the inchoate view of the time. Now much research is focuses on ENSO diversity. Is our understanding deeper for this? Has this work properly incorporated the ENSO life cycle of the canonical event? Some eras are more predictable than others. Why? Is it random, or is there a systematic difference in background state? Do we have any idea how predictable ENSO is? Why is the ENSO band 2-7 years? What will become of ENSO in the next century?

  11. Less Waste on Waist Measurements: Determination of Optimal Waist Circumference Measurement Site to Predict Visceral Adipose Tissue in Postmenopausal Women with Obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhika V. Seimon

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available With obesity being a leading cause of preventable death, it is vital to understand how best to identify individuals with greater risk of metabolic disease, especially those with high visceral adipose tissue (VAT. This study aimed to determine whether three commonly used waist circumference (WC measurement sites could provide accurate estimations of VAT, as determined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, which is a gold standard for measuring VAT, in postmenopausal women with obesity. VAT volume was measured by MRI of the total abdomen in 97 women aged 57.7 ± 0.4 years (mean ± SEM, mean body mass index 34.5 ± 0.2 kg/m2. WC was measured at the midpoint between the lowest rib and the iliac crest (WCmid, the narrowest point of the torso (WCnarrow, and at the level of the umbilicus (WCumbilicus. WC differed significantly according to measurement site, with WCnarrow (102.1 ± 0.7 cm < WCmid (108.3 ± 0.7 cm < WCumbilicus (115.7 ± 0.8 cm (p < 0.001. WCmid, WCnarrow and WCumbilicus were all significantly correlated with VAT, as measured by MRI (r = 0.581, 0.563 and 0.390, respectively; p < 0.001 for all, but the relationships between WCmid or WCnarrow and VAT determined by MRI were stronger than for WCumbilicus. Measurement of either WCmid or WCnarrow provides valid estimates of VAT in postmenopausal women with obesity, with WCnarrow being favoured in light of its greater ease and speed of measurement in this population.

  12. WALS Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magnus, J.R.; Wang, W.; Zhang, Xinyu

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Prediction under model uncertainty is an important and difficult issue. Traditional prediction methods (such as pretesting) are based on model selection followed by prediction in the selected model, but the reported prediction and the reported prediction variance ignore the uncertainty

  13. Predicting the local outcome of glottic squamous cell carcinoma after definitive radiation therapy: value of computed tomography-determined tumour parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermans, R.; Van den Bogaert, W.; Rijnders, A.; Doornaert, P.; Baert, A.L.

    1999-01-01

    Background and purpose: The T-classification has shortcomings in the prediction of local outcome of glottic squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) treated by definitive radiation therapy. In this regard, the value of several CT-derived tumour parameters as predictors of local outcome was investigated. Materials and methods: The pretreatment CT studies of 119 patients with glottic SCC (T1, n=61; T2, n=40; T3, n=14; T4, n=4) treated with curative intent by radiation therapy were reviewed for tumoral involvement of specific laryngeal anatomic subsites (including laryngeal cartilages). Tumour volume was calculated with the summation-of-areas technique. Actuarial (life-table) statistical analysis was done for each of the covariates; multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model.Results: In the actuarial analysis tumour volume was significantly correlated with local recurrence rate (P=0.0062). Involvement of the cricoid cartilage (P=0.0052), anterior commissure (P=0.0203), subglottis (P=0.0481) and preepiglottic space (P=0.0134) and degree of involvement of the true vocal cord (P=0.0441) and paraglottic space at the level of the true vocal cord (P=0.0002) were also significantly correlated with local recurrence rate. In the multivariate analysis, only degree of involvement of the paraglottic space (at the level of the true vocal cord) (P=0.0001) and preepiglottic space (P=0.02) were found to be independent predictors of local recurrence. The T-category was significantly correlated with local outcome in the actuarial analysis (P=0.0001), but not in the multivariate analysis (P=0.5915). Conclusions: Several CT-derived parameters are powerful predictors of local outcome in glottic cancer treated with radiation therapy; some of these parameters are stronger linked to the local control rate than the T-classification. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  14. Determination of the fibre orientation distribution of a mineral wool network and prediction of its transverse stiffness using X-ray tomography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chapelle, Lucie; Lyckegaard, Allan; Kusano, Yukihiro

    2018-01-01

    A method to determine the orientation and diameter distributions of mineral wool fibre networks using X-ray tomography and image analysis is presented. The method is applied to two different types of mineral wool: glass wool and stone wool. The orientation information is obtained from...... the computation of the structure tensor, and the diameter is estimated by applying a greyscale granulometry. The results of the image analysis indicate the two types of fibres are distributed in a 2D planar arrangement with the glass wool fibres showing a higher degree of planarity than the stone wool fibres...... confirms the assumption that the underlying deformation mechanism of mineral wool is the bending of fibre segments between bonds....

  15. Fickian-Based Empirical Approach for Diffusivity Determination in Hollow Alginate-Based Microfibers Using 2D Fluorescence Microscopy and Comparison with Theoretical Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Mobed-Miremadi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Hollow alginate microfibers (od = 1.3 mm, id = 0.9 mm, th = 400 µm, L = 3.5 cm comprised of 2% (w/v medium molecular weight alginate cross-linked with 0.9 M CaCl2 were fabricated to model outward diffusion capture by 2D fluorescent microscopy. A two-fold comparison of diffusivity determination based on real-time diffusion of Fluorescein isothiocyanate molecular weight (FITC MW markers was conducted using a proposed Fickian-based approach in conjunction with a previously established numerical model developed based on spectrophotometric data. Computed empirical/numerical (Dempiricial/Dnumerical diffusivities characterized by small standard deviations for the 4-, 70- and 500-kDa markers expressed in m2/s are (1.06 × 10−9 ± 1.96 × 10−10/(2.03 × 10−11, (5.89 × 10−11 ± 2.83 × 10−12/(4.6 × 10−12 and (4.89 × 10−12 ± 3.94 × 10−13/(1.27 × 10−12, respectively, with the discrimination between the computation techniques narrowing down as a function of MW. The use of the numerical approach is recommended for fluorescence-based measurements as the standard computational method for effective diffusivity determination until capture rates (minimum 12 fps for the 4-kDa marker and the use of linear instead of polynomial interpolating functions to model temporal intensity gradients have been proven to minimize the extent of systematic errors associated with the proposed empirical method.

  16. Determination of Endograft Apposition, Position, and Expansion in the Aortic Neck Predicts Type Ia Endoleak and Migration After Endovascular Aneurysm Repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuurmann, Richte C L; van Noort, Kim; Overeem, Simon P; van Veen, Ruben; Ouriel, Kenneth; Jordan, William D; Muhs, Bart E; 't Mannetje, Yannick W; Reijnen, Michel M P J; Fioole, Bram; Ünlü, Çağdaş; Brummel, Peter; de Vries, Jean-Paul P M

    2018-03-01

    To describe the added value of determining changes in position and apposition on computed tomography angiography (CTA) after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) to detect early caudal displacement of the device and to prevent type Ia endoleak. Four groups of elective EVAR patients were selected from a dataset purposely enriched with type Ia endoleak and migration (>10 mm) cases. The groups included cases of late type Ia endoleak (n=36), migration (n=9), a type II endoleak (n=16), and controls without post-EVAR complications (n=37). Apposition of the endograft fabric with the aortic neck, shortest distance between the fabric and the renal arteries, expansion of the main body (or dilatation of the aorta in the infrarenal sealing zone), and tilt of the endograft toward the aortic axis were determined on the first postoperative and the last available CTA scan without type Ia endoleak or migration. Differences in these endograft dimensions were compared between the first vs last scan and among the 4 groups. No significant differences in endograft configurations were observed among the groups on the first postoperative CTA scan. On the last CTA scan before a complication arose, the position of the fabric relative to the renal arteries, expansion of the main body, and apposition of the fabric with the aortic neck were significantly different between the type Ia endoleak (median follow-up 15 months) and migration groups (median follow-up 23 months) compared with the control group (median follow-up 19 months). Most endograft dimensions had changed significantly compared with the first postoperative CTA scan for all groups. Apposition had increased in the control group but had decreased significantly in the type Ia endoleak and migration groups. Progressive changes in dimensions of the endograft within the infrarenal neck could be detected on regular CTA scans before the complication became urgent in many patients.

  17. Predictive Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... you want to learn. Search form Search Predictive testing You are here Home Testing & Services Testing for ... you make the decision. What Is Predictive Genetic Testing Predictive genetic testing searches for genetic changes, or ...

  18. Net energy of hemp hulls and processed hemp hull products fed to growing pigs and the comparison of net energy determined via indirect calorimetry and calculated from prediction equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J W; Nyachoti, C M

    2017-06-01

    An experiment was conducted to determine the NE of hemp hulls (HH), extruded HH (EHH), and a blended product of HH with pea (HHP) fed to growing pigs using indirect calorimetry (IC) and to determine effects of dietary fiber on heat production (HP) and fasting HP (FHP). Twenty-four growing barrows with an average initial BW of 22.9 ± 1.75 kg were individually housed in adjustable metabolism crates. Pigs were randomly allotted to 1 of 4 dietary treatments with 6 replicates per treatment. A corn-soybean meal basal diet was prepared. Three additional diets were formulated to contain a constant ratio of corn and soybean meal and each of the test ingredients. Pigs were fed experimental diets for 16 d including 10 d for adaptation and 6 d for total collection of feces and urine to determine DE and ME of experimental diets. Pigs were then moved into IC chambers to determine HP and FHP. The apparent total tract digestibility (ATTD) of DM was greater ( < 0.01) in the HHP diet than in the HH and EHH diets but less ( < 0.01) than in the basal diet. Similarly, the ATTD of GE in the basal diet was greater ( < 0.01) compared with the HH, EHH, and HHP diets. The DE, ME, and NE of the basal diet were greater ( < 0.01) than those of the HH, EHH, and HHP diets. No significant differences were observed for the HP (on average, 1,904 kcal/kg DM) and FHP (on average, 1,320 kcal/kg DM) among treatments. However, the retained energy of pigs fed the basal diet (1,763 kcal/kg DM) was greater ( < 0.05) than for those fed the HH (1,501 kcal/kg DM) and HHP (1,482 kcal/kg DM) diets. The NE:ME ratio tended to be greater ( ≤ 0.10) for the basal diet (0.85) than for the HH (0.82), EHH (0.82), and HHP (0.83) diets. The NE of HH, EHH, and HHP determined by the IC method were 2,375, 2,320, and 2,399 kcal/kg DM, respectively, whereas values calculated using published prediction equations were 2,308, 2,161, and 2,278 kcal/kg DM, respectively. However there was no difference between determined and

  19. Determination of a cutoff value for pelvic floor distensibility using the Epi-no balloon to predict perineal integrity in vaginal delivery: ROC curve analysis. Prospective observational single cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Raquel Diniz Zanetti

    Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Several risk factors are involved in perineal lacerations during vaginal delivery. However, little is known about the influence of perineal distensibility as a protective factor. The aim here was to determine a cutoff value for pelvic floor distensibility measured using the Epi-no balloon, which could be used as a predictive factor for perineal integrity in vaginal delivery. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective observational single cohort study conducted in a maternity hospital. METHODS: A convenience sample of 227 consecutive at-term parturients was used. All women had a single fetus in the vertex presentation, with up to 9.0 cm of dilation. The maximum dilation of the Epi-no balloon was measured using a tape measure after it had been inflated inside the vagina up to the parturients' maximum tolerance. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to obtain the Epi-no circumference measurement with best sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Among the 161 patients who were included in the study, 50.9% underwent episiotomy, 21.8% presented lacerations and 27.3% retained an intact perineum. Age > 25.9 years; number of pregnancies > 3.4; number of deliveries > 2.2 and circumference measured by Epi-no > 21.4 cm were all directly correlated with an intact perineum. Circumference measurements using the Epi-no balloon that were greater than 20.8 cm showed sensitivity and specificity of 70.5% and 66.7% (area under curve = 0.713, respectively, as a predictive factor for an intact perineum in vaginal delivery. CONCLUSION: Circumferences greater than 20.8 cm achieved using the Epi-no balloon are a predictive factor for perineal integrity in parturients.

  20. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the atmosphere under future climate change scenarios.

  1. Combined Assessment of Stress Myocardial Perfusion Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance and Flow Measurement in the Coronary Sinus Improves Prediction of Functionally Significant Coronary Stenosis Determined by Fractional Flow Reserve in Multivessel Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamori, Shiro; Sakuma, Hajime; Dohi, Kaoru; Ishida, Masaki; Tanigawa, Takashi; Yamada, Akimasa; Takase, Shinichi; Nakajima, Hiroshi; Sawai, Toshiki; Masuda, Jun; Nagata, Motonori; Ichikawa, Yasutaka; Kitagawa, Kakuya; Fujii, Eitaro; Yamada, Norikazu; Ito, Masaaki

    2018-01-26

    Recent studies using stress-rest perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) demonstrated a close correlation between myocardial ischemia and reduced fractional flow reserve (FFR). However, its diagnostic concordance may be reduced in patients with multivessel disease. We sought to evaluate the concordance of adenosine stress-rest perfusion CMR for predicting reduced FFR, and to determine the additive value of measuring global coronary flow reserve (CFR) in the coronary sinus in multivessel disease. Ninety-six patients with angiographic luminal narrowing >50% underwent comprehensive CMR study and FFR measurements in 139 coronary vessels. FFR flow measured by phase-contrast cine CMR. In 25 patients with single-vessel disease, visual assessment of perfusion CMR yielded high diagnostic concordance for predicting flow-limiting stenosis, with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.93 on a per-patient basis. However, in 71 patients with multivessel disease, perfusion CMR underestimated flow-limiting stenosis, resulting in the reduced area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74. When CFR of flow measurement in the coronary sinus is useful for detecting reduced FFR in multivessel disease. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  2. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  3. Cross talk between β subunits, intracellular Ca2+ signaling, and SNAREs in the modulation of CaV 2.1 channel steady-state inactivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serra, Selma Angèlica; Gené, Gemma G; Elorza-Vidal, Xabier; Fernández-Fernández, José M

    2018-01-01

    Modulation of Ca V 2.1 channel activity plays a key role in interneuronal communication and synaptic plasticity. SNAREs interact with a specific synprint site at the second intracellular loop (LII-III) of the Ca V 2.1 pore-forming α 1A subunit to optimize neurotransmitter release from presynaptic terminals by allowing secretory vesicles docking near the Ca 2+ entry pathway, and by modulating the voltage dependence of channel steady-state inactivation. Ca 2+ influx through Ca V 2.1 also promotes channel inactivation. This process seems to involve Ca 2+ -calmodulin interaction with two adjacent sites in the α 1A carboxyl tail (C-tail) (the IQ-like motif and the Calmodulin-Binding Domain (CBD) site), and contributes to long-term potentiation and spatial learning and memory. Besides, binding of regulatory β subunits to the α interaction domain (AID) at the first intracellular loop (LI-II) of α 1A determines the degree of channel inactivation by both voltage and Ca 2+ . Here, we explore the cross talk between β subunits, Ca 2+ , and syntaxin-1A-modulated Ca V 2.1 inactivation, highlighting the α 1A domains involved in such process. β 3 -containing Ca V 2.1 channels show syntaxin-1A-modulated but no Ca 2+ -dependent steady-state inactivation. Conversely, β 2a -containing Ca V 2.1 channels show Ca 2+ -dependent but not syntaxin-1A-modulated steady-state inactivation. A LI-II deletion confers Ca 2+ -dependent inactivation and prevents modulation by syntaxin-1A in β 3 -containing Ca V 2.1 channels. Mutation of the IQ-like motif, unlike CBD deletion, abolishes Ca 2+ -dependent inactivation and confers modulation by syntaxin-1A in β 2a -containing Ca V 2.1 channels. Altogether, these results suggest that LI-II structural modifications determine the regulation of Ca V 2.1 steady-state inactivation either by Ca 2+ or by SNAREs but not by both. © 2018 The Authors. Physiological Reports published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Physiological Society and

  4. Evaluating prediction uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKay, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

  5. Predictive medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; ten Have, Henk

    2015-01-01

    In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health

  6. Precise determination of the mass of the Higgs boson and tests of compatibility of its couplings with the standard model predictions using proton collisions at 7 and 8[Formula: see text].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachatryan, V; Sirunyan, A M; Tumasyan, A; Adam, W; Bergauer, T; Dragicevic, M; Erö, J; Friedl, M; Frühwirth, R; Ghete, V M; Hartl, C; Hörmann, N; Hrubec, J; Jeitler, M; Kiesenhofer, W; Knünz, V; Krammer, M; Krätschmer, I; Liko, D; Mikulec, I; Rabady, D; Rahbaran, B; Rohringer, H; Schöfbeck, R; Strauss, J; Treberer-Treberspurg, W; Waltenberger, W; Wulz, C-E; Mossolov, V; Shumeiko, N; Suarez Gonzalez, J; Alderweireldt, S; Bansal, S; Cornelis, T; De Wolf, E A; Janssen, X; Knutsson, A; Lauwers, J; Luyckx, S; Ochesanu, S; Rougny, R; Van De Klundert, M; Van Haevermaet, H; Van Mechelen, P; Van Remortel, N; Van Spilbeeck, A; Blekman, F; Blyweert, S; D'Hondt, J; Daci, N; Heracleous, N; Keaveney, J; Lowette, S; Maes, M; Olbrechts, A; Python, Q; Strom, D; Tavernier, S; Van Doninck, W; Van Mulders, P; Van Onsem, G P; Villella, I; Caillol, C; Clerbaux, B; De Lentdecker, G; Dobur, D; Favart, L; Gay, A P R; Grebenyuk, A; Léonard, A; Mohammadi, A; Perniè, L; Randle-Conde, A; Reis, T; Seva, T; Thomas, L; Vander Velde, C; Vanlaer, P; Wang, J; Zenoni, F; Adler, V; Beernaert, K; Benucci, L; Cimmino, A; Costantini, S; Crucy, S; Fagot, A; Garcia, G; Mccartin, J; Ocampo Rios, A A; Poyraz, D; Ryckbosch, D; Salva Diblen, S; Sigamani, M; Strobbe, N; Thyssen, F; Tytgat, M; Yazgan, E; Zaganidis, N; Basegmez, S; Beluffi, C; Bruno, G; Castello, R; Caudron, A; Ceard, L; Da Silveira, G G; Delaere, C; du Pree, T; Favart, D; Forthomme, L; Giammanco, A; Hollar, J; Jafari, A; Jez, P; Komm, M; Lemaitre, V; Nuttens, C; Pagano, D; Perrini, L; Pin, A; Piotrzkowski, K; Popov, A; Quertenmont, L; Selvaggi, M; Vidal Marono, M; Vizan Garcia, J M; Beliy, N; Caebergs, T; Daubie, E; Hammad, G H; Júnior, W L Aldá; Alves, G A; Brito, L; Correa Martins Junior, M; Martins, T Dos Reis; Molina, J; Mora Herrera, C; Pol, M E; Teles, P Rebello; Carvalho, W; Chinellato, J; Custódio, A; Da Costa, E M; De Jesus Damiao, D; De Oliveira Martins, C; Fonseca De Souza, S; Malbouisson, H; Matos Figueiredo, D; Mundim, L; Nogima, H; Prado Da Silva, W L; Santaolalla, J; Santoro, A; Sznajder, A; Tonelli Manganote, E J; Vilela Pereira, A; Bernardes, C A; Dogra, S; Fernandez Perez Tomei, T R; Gregores, E M; Mercadante, P G; Novaes, S F; Padula, Sandra S; Aleksandrov, A; Genchev, V; Hadjiiska, R; Iaydjiev, P; Marinov, A; Piperov, S; Rodozov, M; Stoykova, S; Sultanov, G; Vutova, M; Dimitrov, A; Glushkov, I; Litov, L; Pavlov, B; Petkov, P; Bian, J G; Chen, G M; Chen, H S; Chen, M; Cheng, T; Du, R; Jiang, C H; Plestina, R; Romeo, F; Tao, J; Wang, Z; Asawatangtrakuldee, C; Ban, Y; Liu, S; Mao, Y; Qian, S J; Wang, D; Xu, Z; Zhang, F; Zhang, L; Zou, W; Avila, C; Cabrera, A; Chaparro Sierra, L F; Florez, C; Gomez, J P; Gomez Moreno, B; Sanabria, J C; Godinovic, N; Lelas, D; Polic, D; Puljak, I; Antunovic, Z; Kovac, M; Brigljevic, V; Kadija, K; Luetic, J; Mekterovic, D; Sudic, L; Attikis, A; Mavromanolakis, G; Mousa, J; Nicolaou, C; Ptochos, F; Razis, P A; Rykaczewski, H; Bodlak, M; Finger, M; Finger, M; Assran, Y; Ellithi Kame, A; Mahmoud, M A; Radi, A; Kadastik, M; Murumaa, M; Raidal, M; Tiko, A; Eerola, P; Voutilainen, M; Härkönen, J; Heikkilä, J K; Karimäki, V; Kinnunen, R; Kortelainen, M J; Lampén, T; Lassila-Perini, K; Lehti, S; Lindén, T; Luukka, P; Mäenpää, T; Peltola, T; Tuominen, E; Tuominiemi, J; Tuovinen, E; Wendland, L; Talvitie, J; Tuuva, T; Besancon, M; Couderc, F; Dejardin, M; Denegri, D; Fabbro, B; Faure, J L; Favaro, C; Ferri, F; Ganjour, S; Givernaud, A; Gras, P; Hamel de Monchenault, G; Jarry, P; Locci, E; Malcles, J; Rander, J; Rosowsky, A; Titov, M; Baffioni, S; Beaudette, F; Busson, P; Chapon, E; Charlot, C; Dahms, T; Dobrzynski, L; Filipovic, N; Florent, A; Granier de Cassagnac, R; Mastrolorenzo, L; Miné, P; Naranjo, I N; Nguyen, M; Ochando, C; Ortona, G; Paganini, P; Regnard, S; Salerno, R; Sauvan, J B; Sirois, Y; Veelken, C; Yilmaz, Y; Zabi, A; Agram, J-L; Andrea, J; Aubin, A; Bloch, D; Brom, J-M; Chabert, E C; Collard, C; Conte, E; Fontaine, J-C; Gelé, D; Goerlach, U; Goetzmann, C; Le Bihan, A-C; Skovpen, K; Van Hove, P; Gadrat, S; Beauceron, S; Beaupere, N; Bernet, C; Boudoul, G; Bouvier, E; Brochet, S; Carrillo Montoya, C A; Chasserat, J; Chierici, R; Contardo, D; Courbon, B; Depasse, P; El Mamouni, H; Fan, J; Fay, J; Gascon, S; Gouzevitch, M; Ille, B; Kurca, T; Lethuillier, M; Mirabito, L; Pequegnot, A L; Perries, S; Ruiz Alvarez, J D; Sabes, D; Sgandurra, L; Sordini, V; Vander Donckt, M; Verdier, P; Viret, S; Xiao, H; Tsamalaidze, Z; Autermann, C; Beranek, S; Bontenackels, M; Edelhoff, M; Feld, L; Heister, A; Klein, K; Lipinski, M; Ostapchuk, A; Preuten, M; Raupach, F; Sammet, J; Schael, S; Schulte, J F; Weber, H; Wittmer, B; Zhukov, V; Ata, M; Brodski, M; Dietz-Laursonn, E; Duchardt, D; Erdmann, M; Fischer, R; Güth, A; Hebbeker, T; Heidemann, C; Hoepfner, K; Klingebiel, D

    Properties of the Higgs boson with mass near 125[Formula: see text] are measured in proton-proton collisions with the CMS experiment at the LHC. Comprehensive sets of production and decay measurements are combined. The decay channels include [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] pairs. The data samples were collected in 2011 and 2012 and correspond to integrated luminosities of up to 5.1[Formula: see text] at 7[Formula: see text] and up to 19.7[Formula: see text] at 8[Formula: see text]. From the high-resolution [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] channels, the mass of the Higgs boson is determined to be [Formula: see text]. For this mass value, the event yields obtained in the different analyses tagging specific decay channels and production mechanisms are consistent with those expected for the standard model Higgs boson. The combined best-fit signal relative to the standard model expectation is [Formula: see text] at the measured mass. The couplings of the Higgs boson are probed for deviations in magnitude from the standard model predictions in multiple ways, including searches for invisible and undetected decays. No significant deviations are found.

  7. Predicting Intrinsic Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Rob; Kirschner, Paul A.

    2004-01-01

    Intrinsic motivation can be predicted from participants' perceptions of the social environment and the task environment (Ryan & Deci, 2000)in terms of control, relatedness and competence. To determine the degree of independence of these factors 251 students in higher vocational education (physiotherapy and hotel management) indicated the…

  8. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...... works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results...

  9. Empirical ground motion prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Archuleta

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available New methods of site-specific ground motion prediction in the time and frequency domains are presented. A large earthquake is simulated as a composite (linear combination of observed small earthquakes (subevents assuming Aki-Brune functional models of the source time functions (spectra. Source models incorporate basic scaling relations between source and spectral parameters. Ground motion predictions are consistent with the entire observed seismic spectrum from the lowest to the highest frequencies. These methods are designed to use all the available empirical Green’s functions (or any subset of observations at a site. Thus a prediction is not biased by a single record, and different possible source-receiver paths are taken into account. Directivity is accounted for by adjusting the apparent source duration at each site. Our time-series prediction algorithm is based on determination of a non-uniform distribution of rupture times of subevents. By introducing a specific rupture velocity we avoid the major problem of deficiency of predictions around the main event's corner frequency. A novel notion of partial coherence allows us to sum subevents' amplitude spectra directly without using any information on their rupture times and phase histories. Predictions by this spectral method are not Jependent on details of rupture nucleation and propagation, location of asperities and other predominantly phase-affecting factors, responsible for uncertainties in time-domain simulations.

  10. Determination of an optimal response cut-off able to predict progression-free survival in patients with well-differentiated advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours treated with sunitinib: an alternative to the current RECIST-defined response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarca, Angela; Barriuso, Jorge; Kulke, Matthew; Borbath, Ivan; Lenz, Heinz-Josef; Raoul, Jean Luc; Meropol, Neal J; Lombard-Bohas, Catherine; Posey, James; Faivre, Sandrine; Raymond, Eric; Valle, Juan W

    2018-01-01

    Sunitinib prolongs progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (pNET). Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)-defined partial responses (PR; classically defined as ⩾30% size decrease from baseline) are infrequent. Individual data of pNET patients from the phase II [NCT00056693] and pivotal phase III [NCT00428597] trials of sunitinib were analysed in this investigator-initiated, post hoc study. The primary objective was to determine the optimal RECIST (v.1.0) response cut-off value to identify patients who were progression-free at 11 months (median PFS in phase III trial); and the most informative time-point (highest area under the curve (AUC) by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and logistic regression) for prediction of benefit (PFS) from sunitinib. Data for 237 patients (85 placebo; 152 sunitinib (n=66.50 mg '4-weeks on/2-weeks off' schedule; n=86 '37.5 mg continuous daily dosing (CDD)')) and 788 scans were analysed. The median PFS for sunitinib and placebo were 9.3 months (95% CI 7.6-12.2) and 5.4 months (95% CI 3.5-6.01), respectively (hazard ratio (HR) 0.43 (95% CI 0.29-0.62); P<0.001). A PR was seen in 19 patients (13%) on sunitinib; the median change in the sum of the lesions (vs baseline) was -12.8% (range -100 to +36.4). Month 7 was the most informative time-point (AUC 0.78 (95% CI 0.66-0.9); odds ratio 1.05 (95% CI 1.01-1.08), P=0.002). Reduction of 10% (vs baseline) achieved the highest sensitivity (50%) and specificity (82%), amongst cut-offs tested. A 10% reduction in marker lesions was associated with improved PFS in the whole sunitinib population (HR 0.55 (95 CI 0.3-0.9); P=0.04); mostly in patients on sunitinib CDD (HR 0.33 (95% CI 0.2-0.7); P=0.005). A 10% reduction in marker lesions (P=0.034) and sunitinib treatment (P=0.012) independently impacted on PFS (multivariable analysis). A 10% reduction within marker lesions identifies pNET patients benefiting from

  11. Filter replacement lifetime prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Klein, Levente I.; Manzer, Dennis G.; Marianno, Fernando J.

    2017-10-25

    Methods and systems for predicting a filter lifetime include building a filter effectiveness history based on contaminant sensor information associated with a filter; determining a rate of filter consumption with a processor based on the filter effectiveness history; and determining a remaining filter lifetime based on the determined rate of filter consumption. Methods and systems for increasing filter economy include measuring contaminants in an internal and an external environment; determining a cost of a corrosion rate increase if unfiltered external air intake is increased for cooling; determining a cost of increased air pressure to filter external air; and if the cost of filtering external air exceeds the cost of the corrosion rate increase, increasing an intake of unfiltered external air.

  12. Crystal structure and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Tejender S; Dubey, Ritesh; Desiraju, Gautam R

    2015-04-01

    The notion of structure is central to the subject of chemistry. This review traces the development of the idea of crystal structure since the time when a crystal structure could be determined from a three-dimensional diffraction pattern and assesses the feasibility of computationally predicting an unknown crystal structure of a given molecule. Crystal structure prediction is of considerable fundamental and applied importance, and its successful execution is by no means a solved problem. The ease of crystal structure determination today has resulted in the availability of large numbers of crystal structures of higher-energy polymorphs and pseudopolymorphs. These structural libraries lead to the concept of a crystal structure landscape. A crystal structure of a compound may accordingly be taken as a data point in such a landscape.

  13. Genetic Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkheimer, Eric

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental reason that the genetics of behavior has remained so controversial for so long is that the layer of theory between data and their interpretation is thicker and more opaque than in more established areas of science. The finding that variations in tiny snippets of DNA have small but detectable relations to variation in behavior surprises no one, at least no one who was paying attention to the twin studies. How such snippets of DNA are related to differences in behavior-known as the gene-to-behavior pathway-is the great theoretical problem of modern behavioral genetics. Given that intentional human breeding is a horrific prospect, what kind of technology might we want (or fear) out of human behavioral genetics? One possibility is a technology that could predict important behavioral characteristics of humans based on their genomes alone. A moment's thought suggests significant benefits and risks that might be associated with such a possibility, but for the moment, just consider how convincing it would be if on the day of a baby's birth we could make meaningful predictions about whether he or she would become a concert pianist or an alcoholic. This article will consider where we are right now as regards that possibility, using human height and intelligence as the primary examples. © 2015 The Hastings Center.

  14. Use of prediction equations to determine the accuracy of whole-body fat and fat-free mass and appendicular skeletal muscle mass measurements from a single abdominal image using computed tomography in advanced cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilgour, Robert D; Cardiff, Katrina; Rosenthall, Leonard; Lucar, Enriqueta; Trutschnigg, Barbara; Vigano, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Measurements of body composition using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and single abdominal images from computed tomography (CT) in advanced cancer patients (ACP) have important diagnostic and prognostic value. The question arises as to whether CT scans can serve as surrogates for DXA in terms of whole-body fat-free mass (FFM), whole-body fat mass (FM), and appendicular skeletal muscle (ASM) mass. Predictive equations to estimate body composition for ACP from CT images have been proposed (Mourtzakis et al. 2008; Appl. Physiol. Nutr. Metabol. 33(5): 997-1006); however, these equations have yet to be validated in an independent cohort of ACP. Thus, this study evaluated the accuracy of these equations in estimating FFM, FM, and ASM mass using CT images at the level of the third lumbar vertebrae and compared these values with DXA measurements. FFM, FM, and ASM mass were estimated from the prediction equations proposed by Mourtzakis and colleagues (2008) using single abdominal CT images from 43 ACP and were compared with whole-body DXA scans using Spearman correlations and Bland-Altman analyses. Despite a moderate to high correlation between the actual (DXA) and predicted (CT) values for FM (rho = 0.93; p ≤ 0.001), FFM (rho = 0.78; p ≤ 0.001), and ASM mass (rho = 0.70; p ≤ 0.001), Bland-Altman analyses revealed large range-of-agreement differences between the 2 methods (29.39 kg for FFM, 15.47 kg for FM, and 3.99 kg for ASM mass). Based on the magnitude of these differences, we concluded that prediction equations using single abdominal CT images have poor accuracy, cannot be considered as surrogates for DXA, and may have limited clinical utility.

  15. Hand-held indirect calorimeter offers advantages compared with prediction equations, in a group of overweight women, to determine resting energy expenditures and estimated total energy expenditures during research screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spears, Karen E; Kim, Hyunsook; Behall, Kay M; Conway, Joan M

    2009-05-01

    To compare standardized prediction equations to a hand-held indirect calorimeter in estimating resting energy and total energy requirements in overweight women. Resting energy expenditure (REE) was measured by hand-held indirect calorimeter and calculated by prediction equations Harris-Benedict, Mifflin-St Jeor, World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization/United Nations University (WHO), and Dietary Reference Intakes (DRI). Physical activity level, assessed by questionnaire, was used to estimate total energy expenditure (TEE). Subjects (n=39) were female nonsmokers older than 25 years of age with body mass index more than 25. Repeated measures analysis of variance, Bland-Altman plot, and fitted regression line of difference. A difference within +/-10% of two methods indicated agreement. Significant proportional bias was present between hand-held indirect calorimeter and prediction equations for REE and TEE (Pvalues and underestimated at higher values. Mean differences (+/-standard error) for REE and TEE between hand-held indirect calorimeter and Harris-Benedict were -5.98+/-46.7 kcal/day (P=0.90) and 21.40+/-75.7 kcal/day (P=0.78); between hand-held indirect calorimeter and Mifflin-St Jeor were 69.93+/-46.7 kcal/day (P=0.14) and 116.44+/-75.9 kcal/day (P=0.13); between hand-held indirect calorimeter and WHO were -22.03+/-48.4 kcal/day (P=0.65) and -15.8+/-77.9 kcal/day (P=0.84); and between hand-held indirect calorimeter and DRI were 39.65+/-47.4 kcal/day (P=0.41) and 56.36+/-85.5 kcal/day (P=0.51). Less than 50% of predictive equation values were within +/-10% of hand-held indirect calorimeter values, indicating poor agreement. A significant discrepancy between predicted and measured energy expenditure was observed. Further evaluation of hand-held indirect calorimeter research screening is needed.

  16. Gate valve performance prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, D.H.; Damerell, P.S.; Wang, J.K.; Kalsi, M.S.; Wolfe, K.J.

    1994-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute is carrying out a program to improve the performance prediction methods for motor-operated valves. As part of this program, an analytical method to predict the stem thrust required to stroke a gate valve has been developed and has been assessed against data from gate valve tests. The method accounts for the loads applied to the disc by fluid flow and for the detailed mechanical interaction of the stem, disc, guides, and seats. To support development of the method, two separate-effects test programs were carried out. One test program determined friction coefficients for contacts between gate valve parts by using material specimens in controlled environments. The other test program investigated the interaction of the stem, disc, guides, and seat using a special fixture with full-sized gate valve parts. The method has been assessed against flow-loop and in-plant test data. These tests include valve sizes from 3 to 18 in. and cover a considerable range of flow, temperature, and differential pressure. Stem thrust predictions for the method bound measured results. In some cases, the bounding predictions are substantially higher than the stem loads required for valve operation, as a result of the bounding nature of the friction coefficients in the method

  17. Disruption prediction at JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milani, F.

    1998-12-01

    The sudden loss of the plasma magnetic confinement, known as disruption, is one of the major issue in a nuclear fusion machine as JET (Joint European Torus). Disruptions pose very serious problems to the safety of the machine. The energy stored in the plasma is released to the machine structure in few milliseconds resulting in forces that at JET reach several Mega Newtons. The problem is even more severe in the nuclear fusion power station where the forces are in the order of one hundred Mega Newtons. The events that occur during a disruption are still not well understood even if some mechanisms that can lead to a disruption have been identified and can be used to predict them. Unfortunately it is always a combination of these events that generates a disruption and therefore it is not possible to use simple algorithms to predict it. This thesis analyses the possibility of using neural network algorithms to predict plasma disruptions in real time. This involves the determination of plasma parameters every few milliseconds. A plasma boundary reconstruction algorithm, XLOC, has been developed in collaboration with Dr. D. O'Brien and Dr. J. Ellis capable of determining the plasma wall/distance every 2 milliseconds. The XLOC output has been used to develop a multilayer perceptron network to determine plasma parameters as l i and q ψ with which a machine operational space has been experimentally defined. If the limits of this operational space are breached the disruption probability increases considerably. Another approach for prediction disruptions is to use neural network classification methods to define the JET operational space. Two methods have been studied. The first method uses a multilayer perceptron network with softmax activation function for the output layer. This method can be used for classifying the input patterns in various classes. In this case the plasma input patterns have been divided between disrupting and safe patterns, giving the possibility of

  18. Predictable Medea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Bertolino

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available By focusing on the tragedy of the 'unpredictable' infanticide perpetrated by Medea, the paper speculates on the possibility of a non-violent ontological subjectivity for women victims of gendered violence and whether it is possible to respond to violent actions in non-violent ways; it argues that Medea did not act in an unpredictable way, rather through the very predictable subject of resentment and violence. 'Medea' represents the story of all of us who require justice as retribution against any wrong. The presupposition is that the empowered female subjectivity of women’s rights contains the same desire of mastering others of the masculine current legal and philosophical subject. The subject of women’s rights is grounded on the emotions of resentment and retribution and refuses the categories of the private by appropriating those of the righteous, masculine and public subject. The essay opposes the essentialised stereotypes of the feminine and the maternal with an ontological approach of people as singular, corporeal, vulnerable and dependent. There is therefore an emphasis on the excluded categories of the private. Forgiveness is taken into account as a category of the private and a possibility of responding to violence with newness. A violent act is seen in relations to the community of human beings rather than through an isolated setting as in the case of the individual of human rights. In this context, forgiveness allows to risk again and being with. The result is also a rethinking of feminist actions, feminine subjectivity and of the maternal. Overall the paper opens up the Arendtian category of action and forgiveness and the Cavarerian unique and corporeal ontology of the selfhood beyond gendered stereotypes.

  19. Chaos detection and predictability

    CERN Document Server

    Gottwald, Georg; Laskar, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Distinguishing chaoticity from regularity in deterministic dynamical systems and specifying the subspace of the phase space in which instabilities are expected to occur is of utmost importance in as disparate areas as astronomy, particle physics and climate dynamics.   To address these issues there exists a plethora of methods for chaos detection and predictability. The most commonly employed technique for investigating chaotic dynamics, i.e. the computation of Lyapunov exponents, however, may suffer a number of problems and drawbacks, for example when applied to noisy experimental data.   In the last two decades, several novel methods have been developed for the fast and reliable determination of the regular or chaotic nature of orbits, aimed at overcoming the shortcomings of more traditional techniques. This set of lecture notes and tutorial reviews serves as an introduction to and overview of modern chaos detection and predictability techniques for graduate students and non-specialists.   The book cover...

  20. Comparing Spatial Predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2011-11-01

    Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis is that of no difference, and a spatial loss differential is created based on the observed data, the two sets of predictions, and the loss function chosen by the researcher. The test assumes only isotropy and short-range spatial dependence of the loss differential but does allow it to be non-Gaussian, non-zero-mean, and spatially correlated. Constant and nonconstant spatial trends in the loss differential are treated in two separate cases. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the size and power properties of this test, and an example based on daily average wind speeds in Oklahoma is used for illustration. Supplemental results are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Qualitys.

  1. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    CERN Document Server

    Beyer, T

    2001-01-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of parac...

  2. The ATI score (age-thrombus burden-index of microcirculatory resistance) determined during primary percutaneous coronary intervention predicts final infarct size in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction: a cardiac magnetic resonance validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Maria, Giovanni Luigi; Alkhalil, Mohammad; Wolfrum, Mathias; Fahrni, Gregor; Borlotti, Alessandra; Gaughran, Lisa; Dawkins, Sam; Langrish, Jeremy P; Lucking, Andrew J; Choudhury, Robin P; Porto, Italo; Crea, Filippo; Dall'Armellina, Erica; Channon, Keith M; Kharbanda, Rajesh K; Banning, Adrian P

    2017-10-20

    The age-thrombus burden-index of microcirculatory resistance (ATI) score is a diagnostic tool able to predict suboptimal myocardial reperfusion before stenting, in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We aimed to validate the ATI score against cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (cMRI). The ATI score was calculated prospectively in 80 STEMI patients. cMRI was performed within 48 hours in all patients and in 50 patients at six-month follow-up to assess the extent of infarct size (IS%) and microvascular obstruction (MVO%). The ATI score was calculated using age (>50=1 point), pre-stenting index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) (>40 and <100=1 point; ≥100=2 points) and angiographic thrombus score (4=1 point; 5=3 points). ATI score was closely related to final IS% (ATI.

  3. Predictable earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, D.

    2002-12-01

    acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.

  4. Sex determination

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The sex-determining system differs considerably among organisms. Even among insect species, the genetic system for sex-determination is highly diversified. In Drosophila melanogaster, somatic sexual differentiation is regulated by a well characterized genetic hierarchy X : A > Sxl > tra/tra2 > dsx and fru. This cascade ...

  5. Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

    2009-03-13

    Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

  6. Are risks quantitatively determinable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buetzer, P.

    1985-01-01

    ''Chemical risks'' can only be determined with accurate figures in a few extraordinary cases. The difficulties lie, as has been shown by the example of the Flixborough catastrophe, mostly in the determination of the probabilities of occurrence. With a rough semiquantitative estimate of the potential hazards and the corresponding probabilities we can predict the risks with astonishing accuracy. Statistical data from incidents in the chemical industry are very useful, and they also show that ''chemical catastrophes'' are only to a very small extent initiated by uncontrolled chemical reactions. (orig.) [de

  7. The Determinants of Food Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leng, Gareth; Adan, Roger A. H.; Belot, Michele

    2017-01-01

    , we need to be able to make valid predictions about the consequences of proposed interventions, and for this, we need a better understanding of the determinants of food choice. These determinants include dietary components (e.g. highly palatable foods and alcohol), but also diverse cultural and social...

  8. Ratchetting strain prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noban, Mohammad; Jahed, Hamid

    2007-01-01

    A time-efficient method for predicting ratchetting strain is proposed. The ratchetting strain at any cycle is determined by finding the ratchetting rate at only a few cycles. This determination is done by first defining the trajectory of the origin of stress in the deviatoric stress space and then incorporating this moving origin into a cyclic plasticity model. It is shown that at the beginning of the loading, the starting point of this trajectory coincides with the initial stress origin and approaches the mean stress, displaying a power-law relationship with the number of loading cycles. The method of obtaining this trajectory from a standard uniaxial asymmetric cyclic loading is presented. Ratchetting rates are calculated with the help of this trajectory and through the use of a constitutive cyclic plasticity model which incorporates deviatoric stresses and back stresses that are measured with respect to this moving frame. The proposed model is used to predict the ratchetting strain of two types of steels under single- and multi-step loadings. Results obtained agree well with the available experimental measurements

  9. Influence of physical and chemical properties of HTSXT-FTIR samples on the quality of prediction models developed to determine absolute concentrations of total proteins, carbohydrates and triglycerides: a preliminary study on the determination of their absolute concentrations in fresh microalgal biomass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano León, Esteban; Coat, Rémy; Moutel, Benjamin; Pruvost, Jérémy; Legrand, Jack; Gonçalves, Olivier

    2014-11-01

    Absolute concentrations of total macromolecules (triglycerides, proteins and carbohydrates) in microorganisms can be rapidly measured by FTIR spectroscopy, but caution is needed to avoid non-specific experimental bias. Here, we assess the limits within which this approach can be used on model solutions of macromolecules of interest. We used the Bruker HTSXT-FTIR system. Our results show that the solid deposits obtained after the sampling procedure present physical and chemical properties that influence the quality of the absolute concentration prediction models (univariate and multivariate). The accuracy of the models was degraded by a factor of 2 or 3 outside the recommended concentration interval of 0.5-35 µg spot(-1). Change occurred notably in the sample hydrogen bond network, which could, however, be controlled using an internal probe (pseudohalide anion). We also demonstrate that for aqueous solutions, accurate prediction of total carbohydrate quantities (in glucose equivalent) could not be made unless a constant amount of protein was added to the model solution (BSA). The results of the prediction model for more complex solutions, here with two components: glucose and BSA, were very encouraging, suggesting that this FTIR approach could be used as a rapid quantification method for mixtures of molecules of interest, provided the limits of use of the HTSXT-FTIR method are precisely known and respected. This last finding opens the way to direct quantification of total molecules of interest in more complex matrices.

  10. Prediction of mill performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P.A. Bennett [CoalTech Pty Ltd. (Australia)

    2005-07-01

    This Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP) project aimed to demonstrate that the Hardgrove Grindability Index (HGI) coupled with standard Petrographic Analysis can be used to greatly improve the prediction of mill power requirements, mill throughput and product size. The project examined the mill test data from ACIRL's pilot scale vertical spindle mill on 96 coals. A total of 360 mill tests, conducted under a wide range of throughputs, roll pressures and classifier settings, were included into the data set. The mill performance of maceral groups or microlithotypes was assumed to be additive, that is, each maceral group or microlithotype behaved independently and a size fraction of the product PF was the volume weighted sum of the petrographic components of that size fraction. Based on this assumption it was possible to determine the size distribution of the product PF, for a wide range of milling conditions, based solely on petrographic analysis. Microlithotypes were not determined directly but were estimated from the maceral analysis. The size distribution of individual maceral groups or microlithotypes can also be estimated based on developed correlations. Size distribution determined from petrographic analysis proved to be a better estimate than that determined from the HGI. Mill power can be estimated from petrographic analysis, but the HGI was found to be a better predictor of mill power. 19 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Predictions models with neural nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Konečný

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The contribution is oriented to basic problem trends solution of economic pointers, using neural networks. Problems include choice of the suitable model and consequently configuration of neural nets, choice computational function of neurons and the way prediction learning. The contribution contains two basic models that use structure of multilayer neural nets and way of determination their configuration. It is postulate a simple rule for teaching period of neural net, to get most credible prediction.Experiments are executed with really data evolution of exchange rate Kč/Euro. The main reason of choice this time series is their availability for sufficient long period. In carry out of experiments the both given basic kind of prediction models with most frequent use functions of neurons are verified. Achieve prediction results are presented as in numerical and so in graphical forms.

  12. Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

  13. Predicting Volleyball Serve-Reception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulo, Ana; Zaal, Frank T J M; Fonseca, Sofia; Araujo, Duarte

    2016-01-01

    Serve and serve-reception performance have predicted success in volleyball. Given the impact of serve-reception on the game, we aimed at understanding what it is in the serve and receiver's actions that determines the selection of the type of pass used in serve-reception and its efficacy. Four

  14. Sports Tournament Predictions Using Direct Manipulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuillemot, Romain; Perin, Charles

    2016-01-01

    An advanced interface for sports tournament predictions uses direct manipulation to allow users to make nonlinear predictions. Unlike previous interface designs, the interface helps users focus on their prediction tasks by enabling them to first choose a winner and then fill out the rest of the bracket. In real-world tests of the proposed interface (for the 2014 FIFA World Cup tournament and 2015/2016 UEFA Champions League), the authors validated the use of direct manipulation as an alternative to widgets. Using visitor interaction logs, they were able to determine the strategies people use to perform predictions and identify potential areas of improvement for further prediction interfaces.

  15. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  16. Determinants of marriage dissolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahim, Mohd Amirul Rafiq Abu; Shafie, Siti Aishah Mohd; Hadi, Az'lina Abdul; Razali, Nornadiah Mohd; Azid @ Maarof, Nur Niswah Naslina

    2015-10-01

    Nowadays, the number of divorce cases among Muslim couples is very worrisome whereby the total cases reported in 2013 increased by half of the total cases reported in the previous year. The questions on the true key factors of dissolution of marriage continue to arise. Thus, the objective of this study is to reveal the factors that contribute to the dissolution of marriage. A total of 181 cases and ten potential determinants were included in this study. The potential determinants considered were age at marriage of husband and wife, educational level of husband and wife, employment status of husband and wife, income of husband and wife, the number of children and the presence at a counseling session. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the data. The findings revealed that four determinants, namely the income of husband and wife, number of children and the presence at a counselling session were significant in predicting the likelihood of divorce among Muslim couples.

  17. Precise determination of the mass of the Higgs boson and tests of compatibility of its couplings with the standard model predictions using proton collisions at 7 and 8 TeV

    CERN Document Server

    Khachatryan, Vardan; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hartl, Christian; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Kiesenhofer, Wolfgang; Knünz, Valentin; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Mikulec, Ivan; Rabady, Dinyar; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Herbert; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Treberer-Treberspurg, Wolfgang; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Alderweireldt, Sara; Bansal, Sunil; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Knutsson, Albert; Lauwers, Jasper; Luyckx, Sten; Ochesanu, Silvia; Rougny, Romain; Van De Klundert, Merijn; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Blekman, Freya; Blyweert, Stijn; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Daci, Nadir; Heracleous, Natalie; Keaveney, James; Lowette, Steven; Maes, Michael; Olbrechts, Annik; Python, Quentin; Strom, Derek; Tavernier, Stefaan; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Villella, Ilaria; Caillol, Cécile; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Dobur, Didar; Favart, Laurent; Gay, Arnaud; Grebenyuk, Anastasia; Léonard, Alexandre; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Perniè, Luca; Randle-conde, Aidan; Reis, Thomas; Seva, Tomislav; Thomas, Laurent; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Wang, Jian; Zenoni, Florian; Adler, Volker; Beernaert, Kelly; Benucci, Leonardo; Cimmino, Anna; Costantini, Silvia; Crucy, Shannon; Fagot, Alexis; Garcia, Guillaume; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Poyraz, Deniz; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Salva Diblen, Sinem; Sigamani, Michael; Strobbe, Nadja; Thyssen, Filip; Tytgat, Michael; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Beluffi, Camille; Bruno, Giacomo; Castello, Roberto; Caudron, Adrien; Ceard, Ludivine; Da Silveira, Gustavo Gil; Delaere, Christophe; Du Pree, Tristan; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Jafari, Abideh; Jez, Pavel; Komm, Matthias; Lemaitre, Vincent; Nuttens, Claude; Pagano, Davide; Perrini, Lucia; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Popov, Andrey; Quertenmont, Loic; Selvaggi, Michele; Vidal Marono, Miguel; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Beliy, Nikita; Caebergs, Thierry; Daubie, Evelyne; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Alves, Gilvan; Brito, Lucas; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; Dos Reis Martins, Thiago; Molina, Jorge; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Pol, Maria Elena; Rebello Teles, Patricia; Carvalho, Wagner; Chinellato, Jose; Custódio, Analu; Melo Da Costa, Eliza; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Malbouisson, Helena; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santaolalla, Javier; Santoro, Alberto; Sznajder, Andre; Tonelli Manganote, Edmilson José; Vilela Pereira, Antonio; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; Dogra, Sunil; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Mercadante, Pedro G; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Aleksandrov, Aleksandar; Genchev, Vladimir; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Marinov, Andrey; Piperov, Stefan; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Glushkov, Ivan; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Chen, Mingshui; Cheng, Tongguang; Du, Ran; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Plestina, Roko; Romeo, Francesco; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Zheng; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Wang, Dayong; Xu, Zijun; Zhang, Fengwangdong; Zhang, Linlin; Zou, Wei; Avila, Carlos; Cabrera, Andrés; Chaparro Sierra, Luisa Fernanda; Florez, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Polic, Dunja; Puljak, Ivica; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Mekterovic, Darko; Sudic, Lucija; Attikis, Alexandros; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Rykaczewski, Hans; Bodlak, Martin; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Assran, Yasser; Ellithi Kamel, Ali; Mahmoud, Mohammed; Radi, Amr; Kadastik, Mario; Murumaa, Marion; Raidal, Martti; Tiko, Andres; Eerola, Paula; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Heikkilä, Jaana Kristiina; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Kortelainen, Matti J; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Wendland, Lauri; Talvitie, Joonas; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Couderc, Fabrice; Dejardin, Marc; Denegri, Daniel; Fabbro, Bernard; Faure, Jean-Louis; Favaro, Carlotta; Ferri, Federico; Ganjour, Serguei; Givernaud, Alain; Gras, Philippe; Hamel de Monchenault, Gautier; Jarry, Patrick; Locci, Elizabeth; Malcles, Julie; Rander, John; Rosowsky, André; Titov, Maksym; Baffioni, Stephanie; Beaudette, Florian; Busson, Philippe; Chapon, Emilien; Charlot, Claude; Dahms, Torsten; Dobrzynski, Ludwik; Filipovic, Nicolas; Florent, Alice; Granier de Cassagnac, Raphael; Mastrolorenzo, Luca; Miné, Philippe; Naranjo, Ivo Nicolas; Nguyen, Matthew; Ochando, Christophe; Ortona, Giacomo; Paganini, Pascal; Regnard, Simon; Salerno, Roberto; Sauvan, Jean-Baptiste; Sirois, Yves; Veelken, Christian; Yilmaz, Yetkin; Zabi, Alexandre; Agram, Jean-Laurent; Andrea, Jeremy; Aubin, Alexandre; Bloch, Daniel; Brom, Jean-Marie; Chabert, Eric Christian; Collard, Caroline; Conte, Eric; Fontaine, Jean-Charles; Gelé, Denis; Goerlach, Ulrich; Goetzmann, Christophe; Le Bihan, Anne-Catherine; Skovpen, Kirill; Van Hove, Pierre; Gadrat, Sébastien; Beauceron, Stephanie; Beaupere, Nicolas; Bernet, Colin; Boudoul, Gaelle; Bouvier, Elvire; Brochet, Sébastien; Carrillo Montoya, Camilo Andres; Chasserat, Julien; Chierici, Roberto; Contardo, Didier; Courbon, Benoit; Depasse, Pierre; El Mamouni, Houmani; Fan, Jiawei; Fay, Jean; Gascon, Susan; Gouzevitch, Maxime; Ille, Bernard; Kurca, Tibor; Lethuillier, Morgan; Mirabito, Laurent; Pequegnot, Anne-Laure; Perries, Stephane; Ruiz Alvarez, José David; Sabes, David; Sgandurra, Louis; Sordini, Viola; Vander Donckt, Muriel; Verdier, Patrice; Viret, Sébastien; Xiao, Hong; Tsamalaidze, Zviad; Autermann, Christian; Beranek, Sarah; Bontenackels, Michael; Edelhoff, Matthias; Feld, Lutz; Heister, Arno; Klein, Katja; Lipinski, Martin; Ostapchuk, Andrey; Preuten, Marius; Raupach, Frank; Sammet, Jan; Schael, Stefan; Schulte, Jan-Frederik; Weber, Hendrik; Wittmer, Bruno; Zhukov, Valery; Ata, Metin; Brodski, Michael; Dietz-Laursonn, Erik; Duchardt, Deborah; Erdmann, Martin; Fischer, Robert; Güth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Heidemann, Carsten; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Klingebiel, Dennis; Knutzen, Simon; Kreuzer, Peter; Merschmeyer, Markus; Meyer, Arnd; Millet, Philipp; Olschewski, Mark; Padeken, Klaas; Papacz, Paul; Reithler, Hans; Schmitz, Stefan Antonius; Sonnenschein, Lars; Teyssier, Daniel; Thüer, Sebastian; Cherepanov, Vladimir; Erdogan, Yusuf; Flügge, Günter; Geenen, Heiko; Geisler, Matthias; Haj Ahmad, Wael; Hoehle, Felix; Kargoll, Bastian; Kress, Thomas; Kuessel, Yvonne; Künsken, Andreas; Lingemann, Joschka; Nowack, Andreas; Nugent, Ian Michael; Pistone, Claudia; Pooth, Oliver; Stahl, Achim; Aldaya Martin, Maria; Asin, Ivan; Bartosik, Nazar; Behr, Joerg; Behrens, Ulf; Bell, Alan James; Bethani, Agni; Borras, Kerstin; Burgmeier, Armin; Cakir, Altan; Calligaris, Luigi; Campbell, Alan; Choudhury, Somnath; Costanza, Francesco; Diez Pardos, Carmen; Dolinska, Ganna; Dooling, Samantha; Dorland, Tyler; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, Doris; Eichhorn, Thomas; Flucke, Gero; Garay Garcia, Jasone; Geiser, Achim; Gizhko, Andrii; Gunnellini, Paolo; Hauk, Johannes; Hempel, Maria; Jung, Hannes; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Karacheban, Olena; Kasemann, Matthias; Katsas, Panagiotis; Kieseler, Jan; Kleinwort, Claus; Korol, Ievgen; Krücker, Dirk; Lange, Wolfgang; Leonard, Jessica; Lipka, Katerina; Lobanov, Artur; Lohmann, Wolfgang; Lutz, Benjamin; Mankel, Rainer; Marfin, Ihar; Melzer-Pellmann, Isabell-Alissandra; Meyer, Andreas Bernhard; Mittag, Gregor; Mnich, Joachim; Mussgiller, Andreas; Naumann-Emme, Sebastian; Nayak, Aruna; Ntomari, Eleni; Perrey, Hanno; Pitzl, Daniel; Placakyte, Ringaile; Raspereza, Alexei; Ribeiro Cipriano, Pedro M; Roland, Benoit; Ron, Elias; Sahin, Mehmet Özgür; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Saxena, Pooja; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Schröder, Matthias; Seitz, Claudia; Spannagel, Simon; Vargas Trevino, Andrea Del Rocio; Walsh, Roberval; Wissing, Christoph; Blobel, Volker; Centis Vignali, Matteo; Draeger, Arne-Rasmus; Erfle, Joachim; Garutti, Erika; Goebel, Kristin; Görner, Martin; Haller, Johannes; Hoffmann, Malte; Höing, Rebekka Sophie; Junkes, Alexandra; Kirschenmann, Henning; Klanner, Robert; Kogler, Roman; Lapsien, Tobias; Lenz, Teresa; Marchesini, Ivan; Marconi, Daniele; Ott, Jochen; Peiffer, Thomas; Perieanu, Adrian; Pietsch, Niklas; Poehlsen, Jennifer; Pöhlsen, Thomas; Rathjens, Denis; Sander, Christian; Schettler, Hannes; Schleper, Peter; Schlieckau, Eike; Schmidt, Alexander; Seidel, Markus; Sola, Valentina; Stadie, Hartmut; Steinbrück, Georg; Troendle, Daniel; Usai, Emanuele; Vanelderen, Lukas; Vanhoefer, Annika; Barth, Christian; Baus, Colin; Berger, Joram; Böser, Christian; Butz, Erik; Chwalek, Thorsten; De Boer, Wim; Descroix, Alexis; Dierlamm, Alexander; Feindt, Michael; Frensch, Felix; Giffels, Manuel; Gilbert, Andrew; Hartmann, Frank; Hauth, Thomas; Husemann, Ulrich; Katkov, Igor; Kornmayer, Andreas; Lobelle Pardo, Patricia; Mozer, Matthias Ulrich; Müller, Thomas; Müller, Thomas; Nürnberg, Andreas; Quast, Gunter; Rabbertz, Klaus; Röcker, Steffen; Simonis, Hans-Jürgen; Stober, Fred-Markus Helmut; Ulrich, Ralf; Wagner-Kuhr, Jeannine; Wayand, Stefan; Weiler, Thomas; Wolf, Roger; Anagnostou, Georgios; Daskalakis, Georgios; Geralis, Theodoros; Giakoumopoulou, Viktoria Athina; Kyriakis, Aristotelis; Loukas, Demetrios; Markou, Athanasios; Markou, Christos; Psallidas, Andreas; Topsis-Giotis, Iasonas; Agapitos, Antonis; Kesisoglou, Stilianos; Panagiotou, Apostolos; Saoulidou, Niki; Stiliaris, Efstathios; Tziaferi, Eirini; Aslanoglou, Xenofon; Evangelou, Ioannis; Flouris, Giannis; Foudas, Costas; Kokkas, Panagiotis; Manthos, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Paradas, Evangelos; Strologas, John; Bencze, Gyorgy; Hajdu, Csaba; Hidas, Pàl; Horvath, Dezso; Sikler, Ferenc; Veszpremi, Viktor; Vesztergombi, Gyorgy; Zsigmond, Anna Julia; Beni, Noemi; Czellar, Sandor; Karancsi, János; Molnar, Jozsef; Palinkas, Jozsef; Szillasi, Zoltan; Makovec, Alajos; Raics, Peter; Trocsanyi, Zoltan Laszlo; Ujvari, Balazs; Swain, Sanjay Kumar; Beri, Suman Bala; Bhatnagar, Vipin; Gupta, Ruchi; Bhawandeep, Bhawandeep; Kalsi, Amandeep Kaur; Kaur, Manjit; Kumar, Ramandeep; Mittal, Monika; Nishu, Nishu; Singh, Jasbir; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Ahuja, Sudha; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Choudhary, Brajesh C; Kumar, Ajay; Malhotra, Shivali; Naimuddin, Md; Ranjan, Kirti; Sharma, Varun; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bhattacharya, Satyaki; Chatterjee, Kalyanmoy; Dutta, Suchandra; Gomber, Bhawna; Jain, Sandhya; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Modak, Atanu; Mukherjee, Swagata; Roy, Debarati; Sarkar, Subir; Sharan, Manoj; Abdulsalam, Abdulla; Dutta, Dipanwita; Kumar, Vineet; Mohanty, Ajit Kumar; Pant, Lalit Mohan; Shukla, Prashant; Topkar, Anita; Aziz, Tariq; Banerjee, Sudeshna; Bhowmik, Sandeep; Chatterjee, Rajdeep Mohan; Dewanjee, Ram Krishna; Dugad, Shashikant; Ganguly, Sanmay; Ghosh, Saranya; Guchait, Monoranjan; Gurtu, Atul; Kole, Gouranga; Kumar, Sanjeev; Maity, Manas; Majumder, Gobinda; Mazumdar, Kajari; Mohanty, Gagan Bihari; Parida, Bibhuti; Sudhakar, Katta; Wickramage, Nadeesha; Sharma, Seema; Bakhshiansohi, Hamed; Behnamian, Hadi; Etesami, Seyed Mohsen; Fahim, Ali; Goldouzian, Reza; Khakzad, Mohsen; Mohammadi Najafabadi, Mojtaba; Naseri, Mohsen; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, Saeid; Rezaei Hosseinabadi, Ferdos; Safarzadeh, Batool; Zeinali, Maryam; Felcini, Marta; Grunewald, Martin; Abbrescia, Marcello; Calabria, Cesare; Chhibra, Simranjit Singh; Colaleo, Anna; Creanza, Donato; Cristella, Leonardo; De Filippis, Nicola; De Palma, Mauro; Fiore, Luigi; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Maggi, Giorgio; Maggi, Marcello; My, Salvatore; Nuzzo, Salvatore; Pompili, Alexis; Pugliese, Gabriella; Radogna, Raffaella; Selvaggi, Giovanna; Sharma, Archana; Silvestris, Lucia; Venditti, Rosamaria; Verwilligen, Piet; Abbiendi, Giovanni; Benvenuti, Alberto; Bonacorsi, Daniele; Braibant-Giacomelli, Sylvie; Brigliadori, Luca; Campanini, Renato; Capiluppi, Paolo; Castro, Andrea; Cavallo, Francesca Romana; Codispoti, Giuseppe; Cuffiani, Marco; Dallavalle, Gaetano-Marco; Fabbri, Fabrizio; Fanfani, Alessandra; Fasanella, Daniele; Giacomelli, Paolo; Grandi, Claudio; Guiducci, Luigi; Marcellini, Stefano; Masetti, Gianni; Montanari, Alessandro; Navarria, Francesco; Perrotta, Andrea; Rossi, Antonio; Rovelli, Tiziano; Siroli, Gian Piero; Tosi, Nicolò; Travaglini, Riccardo; Albergo, Sebastiano; Cappello, Gigi; Chiorboli, Massimiliano; Costa, Salvatore; Giordano, Ferdinando; Potenza, Renato; Tricomi, Alessia; Tuve, Cristina; Barbagli, Giuseppe; Ciulli, Vitaliano; Civinini, Carlo; D'Alessandro, Raffaello; Focardi, Ettore; Gallo, Elisabetta; Gonzi, Sandro; Gori, Valentina; Lenzi, Piergiulio; Meschini, Marco; Paoletti, Simone; Sguazzoni, Giacomo; Tropiano, Antonio; Benussi, Luigi; Bianco, Stefano; Fabbri, Franco; Piccolo, Davide; Ferretti, Roberta; Ferro, Fabrizio; Lo Vetere, Maurizio; Robutti, Enrico; Tosi, Silvano; Dinardo, Mauro Emanuele; Fiorendi, Sara; Gennai, Simone; Gerosa, Raffaele; Ghezzi, Alessio; Govoni, Pietro; Lucchini, Marco Toliman; Malvezzi, Sandra; Manzoni, Riccardo Andrea; Martelli, Arabella; Marzocchi, Badder; Menasce, Dario; Moroni, Luigi; Paganoni, Marco; Pedrini, Daniele; Ragazzi, Stefano; Redaelli, Nicola; Tabarelli de Fatis, Tommaso; Buontempo, Salvatore; Cavallo, Nicola; Di Guida, Salvatore; Fabozzi, Francesco; Iorio, Alberto Orso Maria; Lista, Luca; Meola, Sabino; Merola, Mario; Paolucci, Pierluigi; Azzi, Patrizia; Bacchetta, Nicola; Bisello, Dario; Branca, Antonio; Carlin, Roberto; Checchia, Paolo; Dall'Osso, Martino; Dorigo, Tommaso; Dosselli, Umberto; Gasparini, Fabrizio; Gasparini, Ugo; Gozzelino, Andrea; Kanishchev, Konstantin; Lacaprara, Stefano; Margoni, Martino; Meneguzzo, Anna Teresa; Pazzini, Jacopo; Pozzobon, Nicola; Ronchese, Paolo; Simonetto, Franco; Torassa, Ezio; Tosi, Mia; Zotto, Pierluigi; Zucchetta, Alberto; Zumerle, Gianni; Gabusi, Michele; Ratti, Sergio P; Re, Valerio; Riccardi, Cristina; Salvini, Paola; Vitulo, Paolo; Biasini, Maurizio; Bilei, Gian Mario; Ciangottini, Diego; Fanò, Livio; Lariccia, Paolo; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Menichelli, Mauro; Saha, Anirban; Santocchia, Attilio; Spiezia, Aniello; Androsov, Konstantin; Azzurri, Paolo; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Bernardini, Jacopo; Boccali, Tommaso; Broccolo, Giuseppe; Castaldi, Rino; Ciocci, Maria Agnese; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Donato, Silvio; Fedi, Giacomo; Fiori, Francesco; Foà, Lorenzo; Giassi, Alessandro; Grippo, Maria Teresa; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Moon, Chang-Seong; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Savoy-Navarro, Aurore; Serban, Alin Titus; Spagnolo, Paolo; Squillacioti, Paola; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Vernieri, Caterina; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; D'imperio, Giulia; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Jorda, Clara; Longo, Egidio; Margaroli, Fabrizio; Meridiani, Paolo; Micheli, Francesco; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Rahatlou, Shahram; Rovelli, Chiara; Santanastasio, Francesco; Soffi, Livia; Traczyk, Piotr; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Bellan, Riccardo; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Casasso, Stefano; Costa, Marco; Covarelli, Roberto; Degano, Alessandro; Demaria, Natale; Finco, Linda; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Musich, Marco; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Pacher, Luca; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Pinna Angioni, Gian Luca; Potenza, Alberto; Romero, Alessandra; Ruspa, Marta; Sacchi, Roberto; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Tamponi, Umberto; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Casarsa, Massimo; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; Gobbo, Benigno; La Licata, Chiara; Marone, Matteo; Schizzi, Andrea; Umer, Tomo; Zanetti, Anna; Chang, Sunghyun; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kim, Min Suk; Kong, Dae Jung; Lee, Sangeun; Oh, Young Do; Park, Hyangkyu; Sakharov, Alexandre; Son, Dong-Chul; Kim, Tae Jeong; Ryu, Min Sang; Kim, Jae Yool; Moon, Dong Ho; Song, Sanghyeon; Choi, Suyong; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Jo, Mihee; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Yongsun; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Kyong Sei; Park, Sung Keun; Roh, Youn; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Inkyu; Ryu, Geonmo; Choi, Young-Il; Choi, Young Kyu; Goh, Junghwan; Kim, Donghyun; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Jongseok; Yu, Intae; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Md Ali, Mohd Adli Bin; Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-de La Cruz, Ivan; Hernandez-Almada, Alberto; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Sánchez Hernández, Alberto; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Pedraza, Isabel; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Krofcheck, David; Butler, Philip H; Reucroft, Steve; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Muhammad; Hassan, Qamar; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khan, Wajid Ali; Khurshid, Taimoor; Shoaib, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Bluj, Michal; Boimska, Bożena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Cwiok, Mikolaj; Dominik, Wojciech; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Misiura, Maciej; Olszewski, Michał; Bargassa, Pedrame; Beirão Da Cruz E Silva, Cristóvão; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Nguyen, Federico; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Seixas, Joao; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Afanasiev, Serguei; Bunin, Pavel; Gavrilenko, Mikhail; Golutvin, Igor; Gorbunov, Ilya; Kamenev, Alexey; Karjavin, Vladimir; Konoplyanikov, Viktor; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Matveev, Viktor; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Shmatov, Sergey; Skatchkov, Nikolai; Smirnov, Vitaly; Zarubin, Anatoli; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Andrey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Pozdnyakov, Ivan; Safronov, Grigory; Semenov, Sergey; Spiridonov, Alexander; Stolin, Viatcheslav; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Vinogradov, Alexey; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Bunichev, Viacheslav; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Ershov, Alexander; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Obraztsov, Stepan; Petrushanko, Sergey; Savrin, Viktor; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Kachanov, Vassili; Kalinin, Alexey; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Ekmedzic, Marko; Milosevic, Jovan; Rekovic, Vladimir; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Battilana, Carlo; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Domínguez Vázquez, Daniel; Escalante Del Valle, Alberto; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; Navarro De Martino, Eduardo; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, Antonio María; Puerta Pelayo, Jesus; Quintario Olmeda, Adrián; Redondo, Ignacio; Romero, Luciano; Senghi Soares, Mara; Albajar, Carmen; de Trocóniz, Jorge F; Missiroli, Marino; Moran, Dermot; Brun, Hugues; Cuevas, Javier; Fernandez Menendez, Javier; Folgueras, Santiago; Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro; Brochero Cifuentes, Javier Andres; Cabrillo, Iban Jose; Calderon, Alicia; Duarte Campderros, Jordi; Fernandez, Marcos; Gomez, Gervasio; Graziano, Alberto; Lopez Virto, Amparo; Marco, Jesus; Marco, Rafael; Martinez Rivero, Celso; Matorras, Francisco; Munoz Sanchez, Francisca Javiela; Piedra Gomez, Jonatan; Rodrigo, Teresa; Rodríguez-Marrero, Ana Yaiza; Ruiz-Jimeno, Alberto; Scodellaro, Luca; Vila, Ivan; Vilar Cortabitarte, Rocio; Abbaneo, Duccio; Auffray, Etiennette; Auzinger, Georg; Bachtis, Michail; Baillon, Paul; Ball, Austin; Barney, David; Benaglia, Andrea; Bendavid, Joshua; Benhabib, Lamia; Benitez, Jose F; Bloch, Philippe; Bocci, Andrea; Bonato, Alessio; Bondu, Olivier; Botta, Cristina; Breuker, Horst; Camporesi, Tiziano; Cerminara, Gianluca; Colafranceschi, Stefano; D'Alfonso, Mariarosaria; D'Enterria, David; Dabrowski, Anne; David Tinoco Mendes, Andre; De Guio, Federico; De Roeck, Albert; De Visscher, Simon; Di Marco, Emanuele; Dobson, Marc; Dordevic, Milos; Dorney, Brian; Dupont-Sagorin, Niels; Elliott-Peisert, Anna; Franzoni, Giovanni; Funk, Wolfgang; Gigi, Dominique; Gill, Karl; Giordano, Domenico; Girone, Maria; Glege, Frank; Guida, Roberto; Gundacker, Stefan; Guthoff, Moritz; Hammer, Josef; Hansen, Magnus; Harris, Philip; Hegeman, Jeroen; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janot, Patrick; Kousouris, Konstantinos; Krajczar, Krisztian; Lecoq, Paul; Lourenco, Carlos; Magini, Nicolo; Malgeri, Luca; Mannelli, Marcello; Marrouche, Jad; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Mersi, Stefano; Meschi, Emilio; Moortgat, Filip; Morovic, Srecko; Mulders, Martijn; Orfanelli, Styliani; Orsini, Luciano; Pape, Luc; Perez, Emmanuelle; Petrilli, Achille; Petrucciani, Giovanni; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Pimiä, Martti; Piparo, Danilo; Plagge, Michael; Racz, Attila; Rolandi, Gigi; Rovere, Marco; Sakulin, Hannes; Schäfer, Christoph; Schwick, Christoph; Sharma, Archana; Siegrist, Patrice; Silva, Pedro; Simon, Michal; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Spiga, Daniele; Steggemann, Jan; Stieger, Benjamin; Stoye, Markus; Takahashi, Yuta; Treille, Daniel; Tsirou, Andromachi; Veres, Gabor Istvan; Wardle, Nicholas; Wöhri, Hermine Katharina; Wollny, Heiner; Zeuner, Wolfram Dietrich; Bertl, Willi; Deiters, Konrad; Erdmann, Wolfram; Horisberger, Roland; Ingram, Quentin; Kaestli, Hans-Christian; Kotlinski, Danek; Langenegger, Urs; Renker, Dieter; Rohe, Tilman; Bachmair, Felix; Bäni, Lukas; Bianchini, Lorenzo; Buchmann, Marco-Andrea; Casal, Bruno; Chanon, Nicolas; Dissertori, Günther; Dittmar, Michael; Donegà, Mauro; Dünser, Marc; Eller, Philipp; Grab, Christoph; Hits, Dmitry; Hoss, Jan; Kasieczka, Gregor; Lustermann, Werner; Mangano, Boris; Marini, Andrea Carlo; Marionneau, Matthieu; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, Pablo; Masciovecchio, Mario; Meister, Daniel; Mohr, Niklas; Musella, Pasquale; Nägeli, Christoph; Nessi-Tedaldi, Francesca; Pandolfi, Francesco; Pauss, Felicitas; Perrozzi, Luca; Peruzzi, Marco; Quittnat, Milena; Rebane, Liis; Rossini, Marco; Starodumov, Andrei; Takahashi, Maiko; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Wallny, Rainer; Weber, Hannsjoerg Artur; Amsler, Claude; Canelli, Maria Florencia; Chiochia, Vincenzo; De Cosa, Annapaola; Hinzmann, Andreas; Hreus, Tomas; Kilminster, Benjamin; Lange, Clemens; Ngadiuba, Jennifer; Pinna, Deborah; Robmann, Peter; Ronga, Frederic Jean; Taroni, Silvia; Yang, Yong; Cardaci, Marco; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Ferro, Cristina; Kuo, Chia-Ming; Lin, Willis; Lu, Yun-Ju; Volpe, Roberta; Yu, Shin-Shan; Chang, Paoti; Chang, You-Hao; Chao, Yuan; Chen, Kai-Feng; Chen, Po-Hsun; Dietz, Charles; Grundler, Ulysses; Hou, George Wei-Shu; Liu, Yueh-Feng; Lu, Rong-Shyang; Miñano Moya, Mercedes; Petrakou, Eleni; Tsai, Jui-fa; Tzeng, Yeng-Ming; Wilken, Rachel; Asavapibhop, Burin; Singh, Gurpreet; Srimanobhas, Norraphat; Suwonjandee, Narumon; Adiguzel, Aytul; Bakirci, Mustafa Numan; Cerci, Salim; Dozen, Candan; Dumanoglu, Isa; Eskut, Eda; Girgis, Semiray; Gokbulut, Gul; Guler, Yalcin; Gurpinar, Emine; Hos, Ilknur; Kangal, Evrim Ersin; Kayis Topaksu, Aysel; Onengut, Gulsen; Ozdemir, Kadri; Ozturk, Sertac; Polatoz, Ayse; Sunar Cerci, Deniz; Tali, Bayram; Topakli, Huseyin; Vergili, Mehmet; Zorbilmez, Caglar; Akin, Ilina Vasileva; Bilin, Bugra; Bilmis, Selcuk; Gamsizkan, Halil; Isildak, Bora; Karapinar, Guler; Ocalan, Kadir; Sekmen, Sezen; Surat, Ugur Emrah; Yalvac, Metin; Zeyrek, Mehmet; Albayrak, Elif Asli; Gülmez, Erhan; Kaya, Mithat; Kaya, Ozlem; Yetkin, Taylan; Cankocak, Kerem; Vardarli, Fuat Ilkehan; Levchuk, Leonid; Sorokin, Pavel; Brooke, James John; Clement, Emyr; Cussans, David; Flacher, Henning; Goldstein, Joel; Grimes, Mark; Heath, Greg P; Heath, Helen F; Jacob, Jeson; Kreczko, Lukasz; Lucas, Chris; Meng, Zhaoxia; Newbold, Dave M; Paramesvaran, Sudarshan; Poll, Anthony; Sakuma, Tai; Seif El Nasr-storey, Sarah; Senkin, Sergey; Smith, Vincent J; Bell, Ken W; Belyaev, Alexander; Brew, Christopher; Brown, Robert M; Cockerill, David JA; Coughlan, John A; Harder, Kristian; Harper, Sam; Olaiya, Emmanuel; Petyt, David; Shepherd-Themistocleous, Claire; Thea, Alessandro; Tomalin, Ian R; Williams, Thomas; Womersley, William John; Worm, Steven; Baber, Mark; Bainbridge, Robert; Buchmuller, Oliver; Burton, Darren; Colling, David; Cripps, Nicholas; Dauncey, Paul; Davies, Gavin; Della Negra, Michel; Dunne, Patrick; Elwood, Adam; Ferguson, William; Fulcher, Jonathan; Futyan, David; Hall, Geoffrey; Iles, Gregory; Jarvis, Martyn; Karapostoli, Georgia; Kenzie, Matthew; Lane, Rebecca; Lucas, Robyn; Lyons, Louis; Magnan, Anne-Marie; Malik, Sarah; Mathias, Bryn; Nash, Jordan; Nikitenko, Alexander; Pela, Joao; Pesaresi, Mark; Petridis, Konstantinos; Raymond, David Mark; Rogerson, Samuel; Rose, Andrew; Seez, Christopher; Sharp, Peter; Tapper, Alexander; Vazquez Acosta, Monica; Virdee, Tejinder; Zenz, Seth Conrad; Cole, Joanne; Hobson, Peter R; Khan, Akram; Kyberd, Paul; Leggat, Duncan; Leslie, Dawn; Reid, Ivan; Symonds, Philip; Teodorescu, Liliana; Turner, Mark; Dittmann, Jay; Hatakeyama, Kenichi; Kasmi, Azeddine; Liu, Hongxuan; Pastika, Nathaniel; Scarborough, Tara; Wu, Zhenbin; Charaf, Otman; Cooper, Seth; Henderson, Conor; Rumerio, Paolo; Avetisyan, Aram; Bose, Tulika; Fantasia, Cory; Lawson, Philip; Richardson, Clint; Rohlf, James; St John, Jason; Sulak, Lawrence; Alimena, Juliette; Berry, Edmund; Bhattacharya, Saptaparna; Christopher, Grant; Cutts, David; Demiragli, Zeynep; Dhingra, Nitish; Ferapontov, Alexey; Garabedian, Alex; Heintz, Ulrich; Laird, Edward; Landsberg, Greg; Mao, Zaixing; Narain, Meenakshi; Sagir, Sinan; Sinthuprasith, Tutanon; Speer, Thomas; Swanson, Joshua; Breedon, Richard; Breto, Guillermo; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, Manuel; Chauhan, Sushil; Chertok, Maxwell; Conway, John; Conway, Rylan; Cox, Peter Timothy; Erbacher, Robin; Gardner, Michael; Ko, Winston; Lander, Richard; Mulhearn, Michael; Pellett, Dave; Pilot, Justin; Ricci-Tam, Francesca; Shalhout, Shalhout; Smith, John; Squires, Michael; Stolp, Dustin; Tripathi, Mani; Wilbur, Scott; Yohay, Rachel; Cousins, Robert; Everaerts, Pieter; Farrell, Chris; Hauser, Jay; Ignatenko, Mikhail; Rakness, Gregory; Takasugi, Eric; Valuev, Vyacheslav; Weber, Matthias; Burt, Kira; Clare, Robert; Ellison, John Anthony; Gary, J William; Hanson, Gail; Heilman, Jesse; Ivova Rikova, Mirena; Jandir, Pawandeep; Kennedy, Elizabeth; Lacroix, Florent; Long, Owen Rosser; Luthra, Arun; Malberti, Martina; Olmedo Negrete, Manuel; Shrinivas, Amithabh; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Wimpenny, Stephen; Branson, James G; Cerati, Giuseppe Benedetto; Cittolin, Sergio; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Holzner, André; Kelley, Ryan; Klein, Daniel; Letts, James; Macneill, Ian; Olivito, Dominick; Padhi, Sanjay; Palmer, Christopher; Pieri, Marco; Sani, Matteo; Sharma, Vivek; Simon, Sean; Tadel, Matevz; Tu, Yanjun; Vartak, Adish; Welke, Charles; Würthwein, Frank; Yagil, Avraham; Zevi Della Porta, Giovanni; Barge, Derek; Bradmiller-Feld, John; Campagnari, Claudio; Danielson, Thomas; Dishaw, Adam; Dutta, Valentina; Flowers, Kristen; Franco Sevilla, Manuel; Geffert, Paul; George, Christopher; Golf, Frank; Gouskos, Loukas; Incandela, Joe; Justus, Christopher; Mccoll, Nickolas; Mullin, Sam Daniel; Richman, Jeffrey; Stuart, David; To, Wing; West, Christopher; Yoo, Jaehyeok; Apresyan, Artur; Bornheim, Adolf; Bunn, Julian; Chen, Yi; Duarte, Javier; Mott, Alexander; Newman, Harvey B; Pena, Cristian; Pierini, Maurizio; Spiropulu, Maria; Vlimant, Jean-Roch; Wilkinson, Richard; Xie, Si; Zhu, Ren-Yuan; Azzolini, Virginia; Calamba, Aristotle; Carlson, Benjamin; Ferguson, Thomas; Iiyama, Yutaro; Paulini, Manfred; Russ, James; Vogel, Helmut; Vorobiev, Igor; Cumalat, John Perry; Ford, William T; Gaz, Alessandro; Krohn, Michael; Luiggi Lopez, Eduardo; Nauenberg, Uriel; Smith, James; Stenson, Kevin; Wagner, Stephen Robert; Alexander, James; Chatterjee, Avishek; Chaves, Jorge; Chu, Jennifer; Dittmer, Susan; Eggert, Nicholas; Mirman, Nathan; Nicolas Kaufman, Gala; Patterson, Juliet Ritchie; Ryd, Anders; Salvati, Emmanuele; Skinnari, Louise; Sun, Werner; Teo, Wee Don; Thom, Julia; Thompson, Joshua; Tucker, Jordan; Weng, Yao; Winstrom, Lucas; Wittich, Peter; Winn, Dave; Abdullin, Salavat; Albrow, Michael; Anderson, Jacob; Apollinari, Giorgio; Bauerdick, Lothar AT; Beretvas, Andrew; Berryhill, Jeffrey; Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Bolla, Gino; Burkett, Kevin; Butler, Joel Nathan; Cheung, Harry; Chlebana, Frank; Cihangir, Selcuk; Elvira, Victor Daniel; Fisk, Ian; Freeman, Jim; Gottschalk, Erik; Gray, Lindsey; Green, Dan; Grünendahl, Stefan; Gutsche, Oliver; Hanlon, Jim; Hare, Daryl; Harris, Robert M; Hirschauer, James; Hooberman, Benjamin; Jindariani, Sergo; Johnson, Marvin; Joshi, Umesh; Klima, Boaz; Kreis, Benjamin; Kwan, Simon; Linacre, Jacob; Lincoln, Don; Lipton, Ron; Liu, Tiehui; Lopes De Sá, Rafael; Lykken, Joseph; Maeshima, Kaori; Marraffino, John Michael; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena Ingrid; Maruyama, Sho; Mason, David; McBride, Patricia; Merkel, Petra; Mishra, Kalanand; Mrenna, Stephen; Nahn, Steve; Newman-Holmes, Catherine; O'Dell, Vivian; Prokofyev, Oleg; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth; Soha, Aron; Spalding, William J; Spiegel, Leonard; Taylor, Lucas; Tkaczyk, Slawek; Tran, Nhan Viet; Uplegger, Lorenzo; Vaandering, Eric Wayne; Vidal, Richard; Whitbeck, Andrew; Whitmore, Juliana; Yang, Fan; Acosta, Darin; Avery, Paul; Bortignon, Pierluigi; Bourilkov, Dimitri; Carver, Matthew; Curry, David; Das, Souvik; De Gruttola, Michele; Di Giovanni, Gian Piero; Field, Richard D; Fisher, Matthew; Furic, Ivan-Kresimir; Hugon, Justin; Konigsberg, Jacobo; Korytov, Andrey; Kypreos, Theodore; Low, Jia Fu; Matchev, Konstantin; Mei, Hualin; Milenovic, Predrag; Mitselmakher, Guenakh; Muniz, Lana; Rinkevicius, Aurelijus; Shchutska, Lesya; Snowball, Matthew; Sperka, David; Yelton, John; Zakaria, Mohammed; Hewamanage, Samantha; Linn, Stephan; Markowitz, Pete; Martinez, German; Rodriguez, Jorge Luis; Adams, Jordon Rowe; Adams, Todd; Askew, Andrew; Bochenek, Joseph; Diamond, Brendan; Haas, Jeff; Hagopian, Sharon; Hagopian, Vasken; Johnson, Kurtis F; Prosper, Harrison; Veeraraghavan, Venkatesh; Weinberg, Marc; Baarmand, Marc M; Hohlmann, Marcus; Kalakhety, Himali; Yumiceva, Francisco; Adams, Mark Raymond; Apanasevich, Leonard; Berry, Douglas; Betts, Russell Richard; Bucinskaite, Inga; Cavanaugh, Richard; Evdokimov, Olga; Gauthier, Lucie; Gerber, Cecilia Elena; Hofman, David Jonathan; Kurt, Pelin; O'Brien, Christine; Sandoval Gonzalez, Irving Daniel; Silkworth, Christopher; Turner, Paul; Varelas, Nikos; Bilki, Burak; Clarida, Warren; Dilsiz, Kamuran; Haytmyradov, Maksat; Khristenko, Viktor; Merlo, Jean-Pierre; Mermerkaya, Hamit; Mestvirishvili, Alexi; Moeller, Anthony; Nachtman, Jane; Ogul, Hasan; Onel, Yasar; Ozok, Ferhat; Penzo, Aldo; Rahmat, Rahmat; Sen, Sercan; Tan, Ping; Tiras, Emrah; Wetzel, James; Yi, Kai; Anderson, Ian; Barnett, Bruce Arnold; Blumenfeld, Barry; Bolognesi, Sara; Fehling, David; Gritsan, Andrei; Maksimovic, Petar; Martin, Christopher; Swartz, Morris; Xiao, Meng; Baringer, Philip; Bean, Alice; Benelli, Gabriele; Bruner, Christopher; Gray, Julia; Kenny III, Raymond Patrick; Majumder, Devdatta; Malek, Magdalena; Murray, Michael; Noonan, Daniel; Sanders, Stephen; Sekaric, Jadranka; Stringer, Robert; Wang, Quan; Wood, Jeffrey Scott; Chakaberia, Irakli; Ivanov, Andrew; Kaadze, Ketino; Khalil, Sadia; Makouski, Mikhail; Maravin, Yurii; Saini, Lovedeep Kaur; Skhirtladze, Nikoloz; Svintradze, Irakli; Gronberg, Jeffrey; Lange, David; Rebassoo, Finn; Wright, Douglas; Baden, Drew; Belloni, Alberto; Calvert, Brian; Eno, Sarah Catherine; Gomez, Jaime; Hadley, Nicholas John; Jabeen, Shabnam; Kellogg, Richard G; Kolberg, Ted; Lu, Ying; Mignerey, Alice; Pedro, Kevin; Skuja, Andris; Tonjes, Marguerite; Tonwar, Suresh C; Apyan, Aram; Barbieri, Richard; Bierwagen, Katharina; Busza, Wit; Cali, Ivan Amos; Di Matteo, Leonardo; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Goncharov, Maxim; Gulhan, Doga; Klute, Markus; Lai, Yue Shi; Lee, Yen-Jie; Levin, Andrew; Luckey, Paul David; Paus, Christoph; Ralph, Duncan; Roland, Christof; Roland, Gunther; Stephans, George; Sumorok, Konstanty; Velicanu, Dragos; Veverka, Jan; Wyslouch, Bolek; Yang, Mingming; Zanetti, Marco; Zhukova, Victoria; Dahmes, Bryan; Gude, Alexander; Kao, Shih-Chuan; Klapoetke, Kevin; Kubota, Yuichi; Mans, Jeremy; Nourbakhsh, Shervin; Rusack, Roger; Singovsky, Alexander; Tambe, Norbert; Turkewitz, Jared; Acosta, John Gabriel; Oliveros, Sandra; Avdeeva, Ekaterina; Bloom, Kenneth; Bose, Suvadeep; Claes, Daniel R; Dominguez, Aaron; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Keller, Jason; Knowlton, Dan; Kravchenko, Ilya; Lazo-Flores, Jose; Meier, Frank; Ratnikov, Fedor; Snow, Gregory R; Zvada, Marian; Dolen, James; Godshalk, Andrew; Iashvili, Ia; Kharchilava, Avto; Kumar, Ashish; Rappoccio, Salvatore; Alverson, George; Barberis, Emanuela; Baumgartel, Darin; Chasco, Matthew; Massironi, Andrea; Morse, David Michael; Nash, David; Orimoto, Toyoko; Trocino, Daniele; Wang, Ren-Jie; Wood, Darien; Zhang, Jinzhong; Hahn, Kristan Allan; Kubik, Andrew; Mucia, Nicholas; Odell, Nathaniel; Pollack, Brian; Pozdnyakov, Andrey; Schmitt, Michael Henry; Stoynev, Stoyan; Sung, Kevin; Velasco, Mayda; Won, Steven; Brinkerhoff, Andrew; Chan, Kwok Ming; Drozdetskiy, Alexey; Hildreth, Michael; Jessop, Colin; Karmgard, Daniel John; Kellams, Nathan; Lannon, Kevin; Lynch, Sean; Marinelli, Nancy; Musienko, Yuri; Pearson, Tessa; Planer, Michael; Ruchti, Randy; Smith, Geoffrey; Valls, Nil; Wayne, Mitchell; Wolf, Matthias; Woodard, Anna; Antonelli, Louis; Brinson, Jessica; Bylsma, Ben; Durkin, Lloyd Stanley; Flowers, Sean; Hart, Andrew; Hill, Christopher; Hughes, Richard; Kotov, Khristian; Ling, Ta-Yung; Luo, Wuming; Puigh, Darren; Rodenburg, Marissa; Winer, Brian L; Wolfe, Homer; Wulsin, Howard Wells; Driga, Olga; Elmer, Peter; Hardenbrook, Joshua; Hebda, Philip; Koay, Sue Ann; Lujan, Paul; Marlow, Daniel; Medvedeva, Tatiana; Mooney, Michael; Olsen, James; Piroué, Pierre; Quan, Xiaohang; Saka, Halil; Stickland, David; Tully, Christopher; Werner, Jeremy Scott; Zuranski, Andrzej; Brownson, Eric; Malik, Sudhir; Mendez, Hector; Ramirez Vargas, Juan Eduardo; Barnes, Virgil E; Benedetti, Daniele; Bortoletto, Daniela; Gutay, Laszlo; Hu, Zhen; Jha, Manoj; Jones, Matthew; Jung, Kurt; Kress, Matthew; Leonardo, Nuno; Miller, David Harry; Neumeister, Norbert; Primavera, Federica; Radburn-Smith, Benjamin Charles; Shi, Xin; Shipsey, Ian; Silvers, David; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey; Wang, Fuqiang; Xie, Wei; Xu, Lingshan; Zablocki, Jakub; Parashar, Neeti; Stupak, John; Adair, Antony; Akgun, Bora; Ecklund, Karl Matthew; Geurts, Frank JM; Li, Wei; Michlin, Benjamin; Padley, Brian Paul; Redjimi, Radia; Roberts, Jay; Zabel, James; Betchart, Burton; Bodek, Arie; de Barbaro, Pawel; Demina, Regina; Eshaq, Yossof; Ferbel, Thomas; Galanti, Mario; Garcia-Bellido, Aran; Goldenzweig, Pablo; Han, Jiyeon; Harel, Amnon; Hindrichs, Otto; Khukhunaishvili, Aleko; Korjenevski, Sergey; Petrillo, Gianluca; Verzetti, Mauro; Vishnevskiy, Dmitry; Ciesielski, Robert; Demortier, Luc; Goulianos, Konstantin; Mesropian, Christina; Arora, Sanjay; Barker, Anthony; Chou, John Paul; Contreras-Campana, Christian; Contreras-Campana, Emmanuel; Duggan, Daniel; Ferencek, Dinko; Gershtein, Yuri; Gray, Richard; Halkiadakis, Eva; Hidas, Dean; Kaplan, Steven; Lath, Amitabh; Panwalkar, Shruti; Park, Michael; Salur, Sevil; Schnetzer, Steve; Sheffield, David; Somalwar, Sunil; Stone, Robert; Thomas, Scott; Thomassen, Peter; Walker, Matthew; Rose, Keith; Spanier, Stefan; York, Andrew; Bouhali, Othmane; Castaneda Hernandez, Alfredo; Dalchenko, Mykhailo; De Mattia, Marco; Dildick, Sven; Eusebi, Ricardo; Flanagan, Will; Gilmore, Jason; Kamon, Teruki; Khotilovich, Vadim; Krutelyov, Vyacheslav; Montalvo, Roy; Osipenkov, Ilya; Pakhotin, Yuriy; Patel, Rishi; Perloff, Alexx; Roe, Jeffrey; Rose, Anthony; Safonov, Alexei; Suarez, Indara; Tatarinov, Aysen; Ulmer, Keith; Akchurin, Nural; Cowden, Christopher; Damgov, Jordan; Dragoiu, Cosmin; Dudero, Phillip Russell; Faulkner, James; Kovitanggoon, Kittikul; Kunori, Shuichi; Lee, Sung Won; Libeiro, Terence; Volobouev, Igor; Appelt, Eric; Delannoy, Andrés G; Greene, Senta; Gurrola, Alfredo; Johns, Willard; Maguire, Charles; Mao, Yaxian; Melo, Andrew; Sharma, Monika; Sheldon, Paul; Snook, Benjamin; Tuo, Shengquan; Velkovska, Julia; Arenton, Michael Wayne; Boutle, Sarah; Cox, Bradley; Francis, Brian; Goodell, Joseph; Hirosky, Robert; Ledovskoy, Alexander; Li, Hengne; Lin, Chuanzhe; Neu, Christopher; Wolfe, Evan; Wood, John; Clarke, Christopher; Harr, Robert; Karchin, Paul Edmund; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, Chamath; Lamichhane, Pramod; Sturdy, Jared; Belknap, Donald; Carlsmith, Duncan; Cepeda, Maria; Dasu, Sridhara; Dodd, Laura; Duric, Senka; Friis, Evan; Hall-Wilton, Richard; Herndon, Matthew; Hervé, Alain; Klabbers, Pamela; Lanaro, Armando; Lazaridis, Christos; Levine, Aaron; Loveless, Richard; Mohapatra, Ajit; Ojalvo, Isabel; Perry, Thomas; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Polese, Giovanni; Ross, Ian; Sarangi, Tapas; Savin, Alexander; Smith, Wesley H; Taylor, Devin; Vuosalo, Carl; Woods, Nathaniel

    2015-05-14

    Properties of the Higgs boson with mass near 125 GeV are measured in proton-proton collisions with the CMS experiment at the LHC. Comprehensive sets of production and decay measurements are combined. The decay channels include $\\gamma\\gamma$, ZZ, WW, $\\tau\\tau$, bb, and $\\mu\\mu$ pairs. The data samples were collected in 2011 and 2012 and correspond to integrated luminosities of up to 5.1 fb$^{-1}$ at 7 TeV and up to 19.7 fb$^{-1}$ at 8 TeV. From the high-resolution $\\gamma\\gamma$ and ZZ channels, the mass of the Higgs boson is determined to be $\\mathrm{m_H = 125.02\\,^{+0.26}_{-0.27}\\,(stat)\\,^{+0.14} _{-0.15}\\,(syst)\\, GeV}$. For this mass value, the event yields obtained in the different analyses tagging specific decay channels and production mechanisms are consistent with those expected for the standard model Higgs boson. The combined best-fit signal relative to the standard model expectation is $\\mathrm{ 1.00 \\pm 0.09 (stat)\\,^{+0.08}_{-0.07}\\, (theo) \\pm 0.07 (syst) }$ at the measured mass. The couplings ...

  18. On identified predictive control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bialasiewicz, Jan T.

    1993-01-01

    Self-tuning control algorithms are potential successors to manually tuned PID controllers traditionally used in process control applications. A very attractive design method for self-tuning controllers, which has been developed over recent years, is the long-range predictive control (LRPC). The success of LRPC is due to its effectiveness with plants of unknown order and dead-time which may be simultaneously nonminimum phase and unstable or have multiple lightly damped poles (as in the case of flexible structures or flexible robot arms). LRPC is a receding horizon strategy and can be, in general terms, summarized as follows. Using assumed long-range (or multi-step) cost function the optimal control law is found in terms of unknown parameters of the predictor model of the process, current input-output sequence, and future reference signal sequence. The common approach is to assume that the input-output process model is known or separately identified and then to find the parameters of the predictor model. Once these are known, the optimal control law determines control signal at the current time t which is applied at the process input and the whole procedure is repeated at the next time instant. Most of the recent research in this field is apparently centered around the LRPC formulation developed by Clarke et al., known as generalized predictive control (GPC). GPC uses ARIMAX/CARIMA model of the process in its input-output formulation. In this paper, the GPC formulation is used but the process predictor model is derived from the state space formulation of the ARIMAX model and is directly identified over the receding horizon, i.e., using current input-output sequence. The underlying technique in the design of identified predictive control (IPC) algorithm is the identification algorithm of observer/Kalman filter Markov parameters developed by Juang et al. at NASA Langley Research Center and successfully applied to identification of flexible structures.

  19. Predicting Microsurgical Aptitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborn, Heather A; Kuthubutheen, Jafri; Yao, Christopher; Chen, Joseph M; Lin, Vincent Y

    2015-08-01

    Microscopic techniques are an essential part of otolaryngologic practice. These procedures demand advanced psychomotor and visuospatial skills, and trainees possess these abilities to varying degrees. No method currently exists to predict who will possess an aptitude for microscopic surgery. Our goal was to determine whether performance can be predicted by background experiences or skills. Retrospective cohort study. Tertiary academic hospital. Students with no previous surgical experience. Subjects were surveyed on a wide range characteristics thought to affect surgical aptitude, with a primary focus on video gaming and musical training. Subjects performed a microsurgical task using a novel simulator and their performance was assessed by blinded investigators. Forty-six students were assessed. There was no correlation between video gaming and improved microsurgical performance. Rather, video gamers obtained worse scores, although this difference did not reach significance. The majority of students played a musical instrument. Within this group, musicians who began playing at younger ages obtained higher scores, with the highest scores obtained by musicians who began playing before age 6. However, musicians did not obtain higher scores than non-musicians, regardless of their age of initiation. No improvement in microsurgical aptitude was seen in subjects who had a history of video gaming or musical instrument playing.

  20. Predicting gangrenous cholecystitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bin; Buddensick, Thomas J; Ferdosi, Hamid; Narducci, Dusty Marie; Sautter, Amanda; Setiawan, Lisa; Shaukat, Haroon; Siddique, Mustafa; Sulkowski, Gisela N; Kamangar, Farin; Kowdley, Gopal C; Cunningham, Steven C

    2014-09-01

    Gangrenous cholecystitis (GC) is often challenging to treat. The objectives of this study were to determine the accuracy of pre-operative diagnosis, to assess the rate of post-cholecystectomy complications and to assess models to predict GC. A retrospective single-institution review identified patients undergoing a cholecystectomy. Logistic regression models were used to examine the association of variables with GC and to build risk-assessment models. Of 5812 patients undergoing a cholecystectomy, 2219 had acute, 4837 chronic and 351 GC. Surgeons diagnosed GC pre-operatively in only 9% of cases. Patients with GC had more complications, including bile-duct injury, increased estimated blood loss (EBL) and more frequent open cholecystectomies. In unadjusted analyses, variables significantly associated with GC included: age >45 years, male gender, heart rate (HR) >90, white blood cell count (WBC) >13,000/mm(3), gallbladder wall thickening (GBWT) ≥ 4 mm, pericholecystic fluid (PCCF) and American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) >2. In adjusted analyses, age, WBC, GBWT and HR, but not gender, PCCF or ASA remained statistically significant. A 5-point scoring system was created: 0 points gave a 2% probability of GC and 5 points a 63% probability. Using models can improve a diagnosis of GC pre-operatively. A prediction of GC pre-operatively may allow surgeons to be better prepared for a difficult operation. © 2014 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

  1. Neurological abnormalities predict disability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poggesi, Anna; Gouw, Alida; van der Flier, Wiesje

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the role of neurological abnormalities and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions in predicting global functional decline in a cohort of initially independent-living elderly subjects. The Leukoaraiosis And DISability (LADIS) Study, involving 11 European centres, was primarily aimed...... at evaluating age-related white matter changes (ARWMC) as an independent predictor of the transition to disability (according to Instrumental Activities of Daily Living scale) or death in independent elderly subjects that were followed up for 3 years. At baseline, a standardized neurological examination.......0 years, 45 % males), 327 (51.7 %) presented at the initial visit with ≥1 neurological abnormality and 242 (38 %) reached the main study outcome. Cox regression analyses, adjusting for MRI features and other determinants of functional decline, showed that the baseline presence of any neurological...

  2. Calorimetry end-point predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes a portion of the work presently in progress at Rocky Flats in the field of calorimetry. In particular, calorimetry end-point predictions are outlined. The problems associated with end-point predictions and the progress made in overcoming these obstacles are discussed. The two major problems, noise and an accurate description of the heat function, are dealt with to obtain the most accurate results. Data are taken from an actual calorimeter and are processed by means of three different noise reduction techniques. The processed data are then utilized by one to four algorithms, depending on the accuracy desired to determined the end-point

  3. Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, J.

    1981-12-01

    We have attempted to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. We have extended the concept of `classical' predictability, which primarily refers to the lack of predictability due mainly to the instabilities of synoptic-scale disturbances, to the predictability of time averages, which are determined by the predictability of low-frequency planetary waves. We have carded out 60-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperature, snow, sea ice and soil moisture. Three of these initial conditions are the observed atmospheric conditions on 1 January of 1975, 1976 and 1977. The other six initial conditions are obtained by superimposing over the observed initial conditions a random perturbation comparable to the errors of observation. The root-mean-square (rms) error of random perturbations at all the grid points and all the model levels is 3 m s1 in u and v components of wind. The rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is >15 m s1.It is hypothesized that for a given averaging period, if the rms error among the time averages predicted from largely different initial conditions becomes comparable to the rms error among the time averages predicted from randomly perturbed initial conditions, the time averages are dynamically unpredictable. We have carried out the analysis of variance to compare the variability, among the three groups, due to largely different initial conditions, and within each group due to random perturbations.It is found that the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from largely different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, whereas the variances among 30-day means for days 31-60 are not distinguishable from the variances due to random initial

  4. Predicting formation enthalpies of metal hydrides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, A.

    2004-01-01

    of elements from the periodic table are yet to beexplored. Since experimental determination of thermodynamic properties of the vast combinations of elements is tedious it may be advantagous to have a predictive tool for this task. In this report different ways of predicting #DELTA#H_f for binary andternary...

  5. Diffusion changes predict cognitive and functional outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jokinen, Hanna; Schmidt, Reinhold; Ropele, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    A study was undertaken to determine whether diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) abnormalities in normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT) and in white matter hyperintensities (WMH) predict longitudinal cognitive decline and disability in older individuals independently of the concomitant magnetic...

  6. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beyer, Theresa

    2001-07-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of paracetamol (acetaminophen), the influence of the variations of the molecular model on the crystal structure lattice energy minima, has also been studied. The general problem of prediction methods based on the assumption that the experimental thermodynamically stable polymorph corresponds to the global lattice energy minimum, is that more hypothetical low lattice energy structures are found within a few kJ mol{sup -1} of the global minimum than are likely to be experimentally observed polymorphs. This is illustrated by the results for molecule I, 3-oxabicyclo(3.2.0)hepta-1,4-diene, studied for the first international blindtest for small organic crystal structures organised by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC) in May 1999. To reduce the number of predicted polymorphs, additional factors to thermodynamic criteria have to be considered. Therefore the elastic constants and vapour growth morphologies have been calculated for the lowest lattice energy

  7. PREDICT: Satellite tracking and orbital prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliacane, John A.

    2011-12-01

    PREDICT is an open-source, multi-user satellite tracking and orbital prediction program written under the Linux operating system. PREDICT provides real-time satellite tracking and orbital prediction information to users and client applications through: the system console the command line a network socket the generation of audio speechData such as a spacecraft's sub-satellite point, azimuth and elevation headings, Doppler shift, path loss, slant range, orbital altitude, orbital velocity, footprint diameter, orbital phase (mean anomaly), squint angle, eclipse depth, the time and date of the next AOS (or LOS of the current pass), orbit number, and sunlight and visibility information are provided on a real-time basis. PREDICT can also track (or predict the position of) the Sun and Moon. PREDICT has the ability to control AZ/EL antenna rotators to maintain accurate orientation in the direction of communication satellites. As an aid in locating and tracking satellites through optical means, PREDICT can articulate tracking coordinates and visibility information as plain speech.

  8. Determinants of translation ambiguity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degani, Tamar; Prior, Anat; Eddington, Chelsea M.; Arêas da Luz Fontes, Ana B.; Tokowicz, Natasha

    2016-01-01

    Ambiguity in translation is highly prevalent, and has consequences for second-language learning and for bilingual lexical processing. To better understand this phenomenon, the current study compared the determinants of translation ambiguity across four sets of translation norms from English to Spanish, Dutch, German and Hebrew. The number of translations an English word received was correlated across these different languages, and was also correlated with the number of senses the word has in English, demonstrating that translation ambiguity is partially determined by within-language semantic ambiguity. For semantically-ambiguous English words, the probability of the different translations in Spanish and Hebrew was predicted by the meaning-dominance structure in English, beyond the influence of other lexical and semantic factors, for bilinguals translating from their L1, and translating from their L2. These findings are consistent with models postulating direct access to meaning from L2 words for moderately-proficient bilinguals. PMID:27882188

  9. Determination Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Cristiane Pinto Mesquita Pardal

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at discussing techniques for administering one implementation issue that often arises in the application of particle filters: sample impoverishment. Dealing with such problem can significantly improve the performance of particle filters and can make the difference between success and failure. Sample impoverishment occurs because of the reduction in the number of truly distinct sample values. A simple solution can be to increase the number of particles, which can quickly lead to unreasonable computational demands, which only delays the inevitable sample impoverishment. There are more intelligent ways of dealing with this problem, such as roughening and prior editing, procedures to be discussed herein. The nonlinear particle filter is based on the bootstrap filter for implementing recursive Bayesian filters. The application consists of determining the orbit of an artificial satellite using real data from the GPS receivers. The standard differential equations describing the orbital motion and the GPS measurements equations are adapted for the nonlinear particle filter, so that the bootstrap algorithm is also used for estimating the orbital state. The evaluation will be done through convergence speed and computational implementation complexity, comparing the bootstrap algorithm results obtained for each technique that deals with sample impoverishment.

  10. What Determines Prediction Errors In Benefits Transfer Models?

    OpenAIRE

    Colombo, Sergio; Hanley, Nick

    2007-01-01

    The aim of BT techniques is to provide decision makers with a monetary valuation of environmental goods and service in a cost-effective and timely manner, since original valuation studies are both expensive and time-consuming. Demands for environmental valuation estimates are rising in the policy community in both Europe and the US. In the UK, widespread use of benefits transfer has already occurred within policy making and regulatory bodies, for instance in the setting of water quality targe...

  11. Predictive Strategies for the Determination of Sales and Advertising ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The PDF file you selected should load here if your Web browser has a PDF reader plug-in installed (for example, a recent version of Adobe Acrobat Reader). If you would like more information about how to print, save, and work with PDFs, Highwire Press provides a helpful Frequently Asked Questions about PDFs.

  12. Predictive Strategies for the Determination of Sales and Advertising ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Advertising budget setting continues to be a controversial topic. The objective of this study is too formulate a scientifically –based approach to setting advertising budgets and correct the lack-lustre approach towards this. Secondary sources of data were used in this study. Data analysis was done by using the SPSS statistical ...

  13. Predictive Strategies for the Determination of Sales and Advertising ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    resources may decide to spend all that they can reasonably allocate to advertising after other unavoidable expenditure have been allocated. Some larger firms also use this rule. It rests on the assumption that sales are independent of the advertising expenditure. There is no realization that advertising may influence sales.

  14. Determining Mean Predicted Performance for Army Job Families

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zeidner, Joseph

    2003-01-01

    ...). The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. To compute regression weights for the 7 ASVAB tests to form assignment composites corresponding to the two alternative second-tier structures (9 or 17 families...

  15. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  16. Prediction-error of Prediction Error (PPE)-based Reversible Data Hiding

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Han-Zhou; Wang, Hong-Xia; Shi, Yun-Qing

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel reversible data hiding (RDH) algorithm for gray-scaled images, in which the prediction-error of prediction error (PPE) of a pixel is used to carry the secret data. In the proposed method, the pixels to be embedded are firstly predicted with their neighboring pixels to obtain the corresponding prediction errors (PEs). Then, by exploiting the PEs of the neighboring pixels, the prediction of the PEs of the pixels can be determined. And, a sorting technique based on th...

  17. Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

    2012-01-01

    Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

  18. Série de treinamento intervalado de alta intensidade como índice de determinação da tolerância à acidose na predição da performance anaeróbia de natação High intensity interval training series as indices of acidosis tolerance determination in swimming anaerobic performance prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Deminice

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo do presente estudo foi determinar a tolerância à acidose através de uma série de nados intervalados de alta intensidade e relacionar com a velocidade de limiar anaeróbio (VLan, concentração de lactato sanguíneo de pico ([Lac]pico, capacidade de trabalho anaeróbio (CTA, freqüência de braçada (fB, comprimento de braçada (CB e índice de braçada (IB na predição da performance de 100m de natação. Dez nadadores realizaram seis nados máximos de 100m no estilo crawl com intervalo de seis minutos. Amostras de sangue foram coletadas cinco minutos após cada nado para posterior análise de lactacidemia ([Lac]. Através da razão entre [Lac] e os respectivos tempos de execução dos seis nados, determinou-se a tolerância à acidose (TA. O número de braçadas realizadas durante os seis esforços foi anotado para determinação da fB, CB, IB. Um nado máximo de 100m foi utilizado como parâmetro de performance (P100 e amostras de sangue foram coletadas para determinação da concentração de lactato sanguíneo de pico ([Lac]pico. Três esforços progressivos de 400m foram realizados para determinação da VLan correspondente à concentração fixa de 3,5mM de lactato. Esforços máximos de 200 e 400m foram realizados para determinação da CTA por regressão linear (coeficiente linear. Os resultados apresentaram significativas correlações (p The aim of the present study was to determine the acidosis tolerance through one high intensity interval swim serie and to relate with anaerobic threshold speed (ATS, blood lactate peak concentration ([Lac]peak, anaerobic work capacity (AWC, stroke rate (SR, stroke length (SL and stroke index (SI in swimming 100 m performance prediction. Ten swimmers performed six maximal swims along 100 m by crawl style with 6 minutes for a rest. Blood samples were taken 5 minutes before each swim for lactate analyses ([Lac]. Through the division of the [Lac] for the time to complete the 6 swims, was

  19. Predicting outdoor sound

    CERN Document Server

    Attenborough, Keith; Horoshenkov, Kirill

    2014-01-01

    1. Introduction  2. The Propagation of Sound Near Ground Surfaces in a Homogeneous Medium  3. Predicting the Acoustical Properties of Outdoor Ground Surfaces  4. Measurements of the Acoustical Properties of Ground Surfaces and Comparisons with Models  5. Predicting Effects of Source Characteristics on Outdoor Sound  6. Predictions, Approximations and Empirical Results for Ground Effect Excluding Meteorological Effects  7. Influence of Source Motion on Ground Effect and Diffraction  8. Predicting Effects of Mixed Impedance Ground  9. Predicting the Performance of Outdoor Noise Barriers  10. Predicting Effects of Vegetation, Trees and Turbulence  11. Analytical Approximations including Ground Effect, Refraction and Turbulence  12. Prediction Schemes  13. Predicting Sound in an Urban Environment.

  20. Wrinkling prediction with adaptive mesh refinement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Selman, A.; Meinders, Vincent T.; van den Boogaard, Antonius H.; Huetink, Han

    2000-01-01

    An adaptive mesh refinement procedure for wrinkling prediction analyses is presented. First the critical values are determined using Hutchinson’s bifurcation functional. A wrinkling risk factor is then defined and used to determined areas of potential wrinkling risk. Finally, a mesh refinement is

  1. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  2. Applied predictive control

    CERN Document Server

    Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

    2002-01-01

    The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

  3. GABA predicts visual intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Emily; Hammett, Stephen T; Larsson, Jonas

    2016-10-06

    Early psychological researchers proposed a link between intelligence and low-level perceptual performance. It was recently suggested that this link is driven by individual variations in the ability to suppress irrelevant information, evidenced by the observation of strong correlations between perceptual surround suppression and cognitive performance. However, the neural mechanisms underlying such a link remain unclear. A candidate mechanism is neural inhibition by gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), but direct experimental support for GABA-mediated inhibition underlying suppression is inconsistent. Here we report evidence consistent with a global suppressive mechanism involving GABA underlying the link between sensory performance and intelligence. We measured visual cortical GABA concentration, visuo-spatial intelligence and visual surround suppression in a group of healthy adults. Levels of GABA were strongly predictive of both intelligence and surround suppression, with higher levels of intelligence associated with higher levels of GABA and stronger surround suppression. These results indicate that GABA-mediated neural inhibition may be a key factor determining cognitive performance and suggests a physiological mechanism linking surround suppression and intelligence. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Accuracy of prediction scores and novel biomarkers for predicting nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in obese children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koot, Bart G. P.; van der Baan-Slootweg, Olga H.; Bohte, Anneloes E.; Nederveen, Aart J.; van Werven, Jochem R.; Tamminga-Smeulders, Christine L. J.; Merkus, Maruschka P.; Schaap, Frank G.; Jansen, Peter L. M.; Stoker, Jaap; Benninga, Marc A.

    2013-01-01

    Accurate prediction scores for liver steatosis are demanded to enable clinicians to noninvasively screen for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Several prediction scores have been developed, however external validation is lacking. The aim was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of four

  5. Determining minimum lubrication film for machine parts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamrock, B. J.; Dowson, D.

    1978-01-01

    Formula predicts minimum film thickness required for fully-flooded ball bearings, gears, and cams. Formula is result of study to determine complete theoretical solution of isothermal elasto-hydrodynamic lubrication of fully-flooded elliptical contacts.

  6. Predictable or not predictable? The MOV question

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thibault, C.L.; Matzkiw, J.N.; Anderson, J.W.; Kessler, D.W.

    1994-01-01

    Over the past 8 years, the nuclear industry has struggled to understand the dynamic phenomena experienced during motor-operated valve (MOV) operation under differing flow conditions. For some valves and designs, their operational functionality has been found to be predictable; for others, unpredictable. Although much has been accomplished over this period of time, especially on modeling valve dynamics, the unpredictability of many valves and designs still exists. A few valve manufacturers are focusing on improving design and fabrication techniques to enhance product reliability and predictability. However, this approach does not address these issues for installed and inpredictable valves. This paper presents some of the more promising techniques that Wyle Laboratories has explored with potential for transforming unpredictable valves to predictable valves and for retrofitting installed MOVs. These techniques include optimized valve tolerancing, surrogated material evaluation, and enhanced surface treatments

  7. Verification, validation, and reliability of predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

    1987-04-01

    The objective of predicting long-term performance should be to make reliable determinations of whether the prediction falls within the criteria for acceptable performance. Establishing reliable predictions of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis on valid theories to predict performance. The validation process must establish the validity of the theory, the parameters used in applying the theory, the arithmetic of calculations, and the interpretation of results; but validation of such performance predictions is not possible unless there are clear criteria for acceptable performance. Validation programs should emphasize identification of the substantive issues of prediction that need to be resolved. Examples relevant to waste package performance are predicting the life of waste containers and the time distribution of container failures, establishing the criteria for defining container failure, validating theories for time-dependent waste dissolution that depend on details of the repository environment, and determining the extent of congruent dissolution of radionuclides in the UO 2 matrix of spent fuel. Prediction and validation should go hand in hand and should be done and reviewed frequently, as essential tools for the programs to design and develop repositories. 29 refs

  8. [Prediction in cerebrovascular diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, G F

    2014-10-01

    Prediction of the outcome of cerebrovascular diseases or of the effects and complications of various forms of treatment are essential components of all stroke treatment regimens. This review focuses on the prediction of the stroke risk in primary prevention, the prediction of the risk of secondary stroke following a transient ischemic attack (TIA), the estimation of the outcome following manifest stroke and the treatment effects, the prediction of secondary cerebrovascular events and the prediction of vascular cognitive impairment following stroke. All predictive activities in cerebrovascular disease are hindered by the translation of predictive results from studies and patient populations to the individual patient. Future efforts in genetic analyses may be able to overcome this barrier and to enable individual prediction in the area of so-called personalized medicine. In all the various fields of prediction in cerebrovascular diseases, three major variables are always important: age of the patient, severity and subtype of the stroke. Increasing age, more severe stroke symptoms and the cardioembolic stroke subtype predict a poor outcome regarding both survival and permanent disability. This finding is somewhat banal and will therefore never replace the well experienced clinician judging the chances of a patient and taking into account the personal situation of this patient, e.g. for initiation of a rehabilitation program. Besides the individualized prediction, in times of restricted economic resources and increasing tendency to clarify questions of medical treatment in court, it seems unavoidable to use prediction in economic and medicolegal interaction with clinical medicine. This tendency will be accompanied by difficult ethical problems which neurologists must be aware of. Improved prediction should not be used to allocate or restrict resources or to restrict medically indicated treatment.

  9. Numerical prediction of slamming loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seng, Sopheak; Jensen, Jørgen J; Pedersen, Preben T

    2012-01-01

    It is important to include the contribution of the slamming-induced response in the structural design of large vessels with a significant bow flare. At the same time it is a challenge to develop rational tools to determine the slamming-induced loads and the prediction of their occurrence. Today...... it is normal practice to apply a standard sea-keeping procedure to determine the relative velocity distribution between the water surface and the hull and then to estimate the bottom slamming loads and the bow-flare slamming loads based on two-dimensional formulations similarly to water-entry problems....... The pressure distribution as well as the total force is then determined by integration over a pseudo-three-dimensional presentation of the hull geometry.In this paper the evaluation of the slamming load is taken one step further by performing direct three-dimensional, fully non-linear numerical calculations...

  10. What determines our behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Radovan

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available In article Ajzen-Fishbein's attitude-behavior model called 'Theory of reasoned action' and Albert Bandura's Model of reciprocal determinism are presented. Both models are a part of social-cognitive paradigm which characterizes behavior with evaluation of different goals. Ajzen and Fishbein (1973; 1980 proposed that specific behavior are predictable from specific behavioral intentions. These intentions are a function of two components: the attitude toward the act in question and percieved normative expectations of reference group. On the other hand Bandura (1986; 1997 claims that person's motivation for a specific behavior and direction toward a specific social object respectively, reflects perception of his or hers self-efficacy beliefs. Some of the findings concerning the synthesis of the two models are also reviewed.

  11. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  12. Brain atrophy and lesion load predict long term disability in multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Popescu, Veronica; Agosta, Federica; Hulst, Hanneke E

    2013-01-01

    To determine whether brain atrophy and lesion volumes predict subsequent 10 year clinical evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS).......To determine whether brain atrophy and lesion volumes predict subsequent 10 year clinical evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS)....

  13. Solar Cycle Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

  14. Is Time Predictability Quantifiable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoeberl, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Computer architects and researchers in the realtime domain start to investigate processors and architectures optimized for real-time systems. Optimized for real-time systems means time predictable, i.e., architectures where it is possible to statically derive a tight bound of the worst......-case execution time. To compare different approaches we would like to quantify time predictability. That means we need to measure time predictability. In this paper we discuss the different approaches for these measurements and conclude that time predictability is practically not quantifiable. We can only...... compare the worst-case execution time bounds of different architectures....

  15. Highly Accurate Prediction of Jobs Runtime Classes

    OpenAIRE

    Reiner-Benaim, Anat; Grabarnick, Anna; Shmueli, Edi

    2016-01-01

    Separating the short jobs from the long is a known technique to improve scheduling performance. In this paper we describe a method we developed for accurately predicting the runtimes classes of the jobs to enable this separation. Our method uses the fact that the runtimes can be represented as a mixture of overlapping Gaussian distributions, in order to train a CART classifier to provide the prediction. The threshold that separates the short jobs from the long jobs is determined during the ev...

  16. Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Pilster

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available While there were several relatively short uprisings in Northern Africa and the Middle East during the Arab Spring, the dispute between the rebels and government forces in Syria has evolved into a full-scale civil war. We try to predict the length of the Syrian insurgency with a three-stage technique. Using out-of-sample techniques, we first assess the predictive capacity of 69 explanatory variables for insurgency duration. After determining the model with the highest predictive power, we categorize Syria according to the variables in this final model. Based on in-sample approaches, we then predict the duration of the Syrian uprising for three different scenarios. The most realistic point prediction is 5.12 years from the insurgency’s start, which suggests an end date between the end of 2016 and early 2017.

  17. Predicting periodontitis progression?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraiolo, Debra M

    2016-03-01

    Cochrane Library, Ovid, Medline, Embase and LILACS were searched using no language restrictions and included information up to July 2014. Bibliographic references of included articles and related review articles were hand searched. On-line hand searching of recent issues of key periodontal journals was performed (Journal of Clinical Periodontology, Journal of Dental Research, Journal of Periodontal Research, Journal of Periodontology, Oral Health and Preventive Dentistry). Prospective and retrospective cohort studies were used for answering the question of prediction since there were no randomised controlled trials on this topic. Risk of bias was assessed using the validated Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale for non-randomised studies. Cross-sectional studies were included in the summary of currently reported risk assessment tools but not for risk of progression of disease, due to the inability to properly assess bias in these types of studies. Titles and abstracts were scanned by two reviewers independently.Full reports were obtained for those articles meeting inclusion criteria or those with insufficient information in the title to make a decision. Any published risk assessment tool was considered. The tool was defined to include any composite measure of patient-level risk directed towards determining the probability for further disease progression in adults with periodontitis. Periodontitis was defined to include both chronic and aggressive forms in the adult population. Outcomes included changes in attachment levels and/or deepening of periodontal pockets in millimeters in study populations undergoing supportive periodontal therapy. Data extraction was performed independently and in collaboration by two reviewers; completed evidence tables were reviewed by three reviewers. Studies were each given a descriptive summary to assess the quantity of data as well as further assessment of study variations within study characteristics. This also allowed for

  18. Aortic pulse wave velocity improves cardiovascular event prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Spears, Melissa; Boustred, Chris

    2014-01-01

    To determine whether aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV) improves prediction of cardiovascular (CVD) events beyond conventional risk factors.......To determine whether aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV) improves prediction of cardiovascular (CVD) events beyond conventional risk factors....

  19. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  20. Seismology for rockburst prediction.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Beer, W

    2000-02-01

    Full Text Available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1.3.2 Time to failure prediction algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1.4 Testing for deterministic components of time series of interest, noise reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3... component of seismic time series, noise reduction and limits of predictability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 A3.1 False nearest strands...

  1. The Prediction Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, M.; Kurz, S.; Lindner, I.; Napel, S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations

  2. Predicting AD conversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yawu; Mattila, Jussi; Ruiz, Miguel �ngel Mu�oz

    2013-01-01

    To compare the accuracies of predicting AD conversion by using a decision support system (PredictAD tool) and current research criteria of prodromal AD as identified by combinations of episodic memory impairment of hippocampal type and visual assessment of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) on MRI...

  3. Predictability of Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Sekreter

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.

  4. 'Red Flag' Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

    -generation prediction markets and outline its unique features as a third-generation prediction market. It is argued that frontline employees gain deep insights when they execute operational activities on an ongoing basis in the organization. The experiential learning from close interaction with internal and external...

  5. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    refining formal, inductive predictive models is the quality of the archaeological and environmental data. To build models efficiently, relevant...geomorphology, and historic information . Lessons Learned: The original model was focused on the identification of prehistoric resources. This...system but uses predictive modeling informally . For example, there is no probability for buried archaeological deposits on the Burton Mesa, but there is

  6. Protein Sorting Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Many computational methods are available for predicting protein sorting in bacteria. When comparing them, it is important to know that they can be grouped into three fundamentally different approaches: signal-based, global-property-based and homology-based prediction. In this chapter, the strengths...

  7. Predicting occupational lung diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suarthana, E.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis aims at demonstrating the development, validation, and application of prediction models for occupational lung diseases. Prediction models are developed to estimate an individual’s probability of the presence or future likelihood of occurrence of an outcome (i.e. disease of interest or

  8. Predicting protein structure classes from function predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, I.; Rahnenfuhrer, J.; de Lichtenberg, Ulrik

    2004-01-01

    membership. Even for structural families of small size, family members receive significantly higher scores. For some examples, we show that the relevant functional features identified by this method are biologically meaningful. The proposed approach can be used to improve existing sequence......We introduce a new approach to using the information contained in sequence-to-function prediction data in order to recognize protein template classes, a critical step in predicting protein structure. The data on which our method is based comprise probabilities of functional categories; for given...... query sequences these probabilities are obtained by a neural net that has previously been trained on a variety of functionally important features. On a training set of sequences we assess the relevance of individual functional categories for identifying a given structural family. Using a combination...

  9. Ground motion predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loux, P.C.

    1969-01-01

    Nuclear generated ground motion is defined and then related to the physical parameters that cause it. Techniques employed for prediction of ground motion peak amplitude, frequency spectra and response spectra are explored, with initial emphasis on the analysis of data collected at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). NTS postshot measurements are compared with pre-shot predictions. Applicability of these techniques to new areas, for example, Plowshare sites, must be questioned. Fortunately, the Atomic Energy Commission is sponsoring complementary studies to improve prediction capabilities primarily in new locations outside the NTS region. Some of these are discussed in the light of anomalous seismic behavior, and comparisons are given showing theoretical versus experimental results. In conclusion, current ground motion prediction techniques are applied to events off the NTS. Predictions are compared with measurements for the event Faultless and for the Plowshare events, Gasbuggy, Cabriolet, and Buggy I. (author)

  10. Structural prediction in aphasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tessa Warren

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable evidence that young healthy comprehenders predict the structure of upcoming material, and that their processing is facilitated when they encounter material matching those predictions (e.g., Staub & Clifton, 2006; Yoshida, Dickey & Sturt, 2013. However, less is known about structural prediction in aphasia. There is evidence that lexical prediction may be spared in aphasia (Dickey et al., 2014; Love & Webb, 1977; cf. Mack et al, 2013. However, predictive mechanisms supporting facilitated lexical access may not necessarily support structural facilitation. Given that many people with aphasia (PWA exhibit syntactic deficits (e.g. Goodglass, 1993, PWA with such impairments may not engage in structural prediction. However, recent evidence suggests that some PWA may indeed predict upcoming structure (Hanne, Burchert, De Bleser, & Vashishth, 2015. Hanne et al. tracked the eyes of PWA (n=8 with sentence-comprehension deficits while they listened to reversible subject-verb-object (SVO and object-verb-subject (OVS sentences in German, in a sentence-picture matching task. Hanne et al. manipulated case and number marking to disambiguate the sentences’ structure. Gazes to an OVS or SVO picture during the unfolding of a sentence were assumed to indicate prediction of the structure congruent with that picture. According to this measure, the PWA’s structural prediction was impaired compared to controls, but they did successfully predict upcoming structure when morphosyntactic cues were strong and unambiguous. Hanne et al.’s visual-world evidence is suggestive, but their forced-choice sentence-picture matching task places tight constraints on possible structural predictions. Clearer evidence of structural prediction would come from paradigms where the content of upcoming material is not as constrained. The current study used self-paced reading study to examine structural prediction among PWA in less constrained contexts. PWA (n=17 who

  11. Prediction of bull fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utt, Matthew D

    2016-06-01

    Prediction of male fertility is an often sought-after endeavor for many species of domestic animals. This review will primarily focus on providing some examples of dependent and independent variables to stimulate thought about the approach and methodology of identifying the most appropriate of those variables to predict bull (bovine) fertility. Although the list of variables will continue to grow with advancements in science, the principles behind making predictions will likely not change significantly. The basic principle of prediction requires identifying a dependent variable that is an estimate of fertility and an independent variable or variables that may be useful in predicting the fertility estimate. Fertility estimates vary in which parts of the process leading to conception that they infer about and the amount of variation that influences the estimate and the uncertainty thereof. The list of potential independent variables can be divided into competence of sperm based on their performance in bioassays or direct measurement of sperm attributes. A good prediction will use a sample population of bulls that is representative of the population to which an inference will be made. Both dependent and independent variables should have a dynamic range in their values. Careful selection of independent variables includes reasonable measurement repeatability and minimal correlation among variables. Proper estimation and having an appreciation of the degree of uncertainty of dependent and independent variables are crucial for using predictions to make decisions regarding bull fertility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  13. Accuracy of prediction scores and novel biomarkers for predicting nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in obese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koot, Bart G P; van der Baan-Slootweg, Olga H; Bohte, Anneloes E; Nederveen, Aart J; van Werven, Jochem R; Tamminga-Smeulders, Christine L J; Merkus, Maruschka P; Schaap, Frank G; Jansen, Peter L M; Stoker, Jaap; Benninga, Marc A

    2013-03-01

    Accurate prediction scores for liver steatosis are demanded to enable clinicians to noninvasively screen for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Several prediction scores have been developed, however external validation is lacking. The aim was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of four existing prediction scores in severely obese children, to develop a new prediction score using novel biomarkers and to compare these results to the performance of ultrasonography. Liver steatosis was measured using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy in 119 severely obese children (mean age 14.3 ± 2.1 years, BMI z-score 3.35 ± 0.35). Prevalence of steatosis was 47%. The four existing predictions scores ("NAFLD liver fat score," "fatty liver index," "hepatic steatosis index," and the pediatric prediction score) had only moderate diagnostic accuracy in this cohort (positive predictive value (PPV): 70, 61, 61, 69% and negative predictive value (NPV) 77, 69, 68, 75%, respectively). A new prediction score was built using anthropometry, routine biochemistry and novel biomarkers (leptin, adiponectin, TNF-alpha, IL-6, CK-18, FGF-21, and adiponutrin polymorphisms). The final model included ALT, HOMA, sex, and leptin. This equation (PPV 79% and NPV 80%) did not perform substantially better than the four other equations and did not outperform ultrasonography for excluding NAFLD (NPV 82%). The conclusion is in severely obese children and adolescents existing prediction scores and the tested novel biomarkers have insufficient diagnostic accuracy for diagnosing or excluding NAFLD. Copyright © 2012 The Obesity Society.

  14. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  15. Critical flux determination by flux-stepping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beier, Søren; Jonsson, Gunnar Eigil

    2010-01-01

    In membrane filtration related scientific literature, often step-by-step determined critical fluxes are reported. Using a dynamic microfiltration device, it is shown that critical fluxes determined from two different flux-stepping methods are dependent upon operational parameters such as step......, such values are more or less useless in itself as critical flux predictors, and constant flux verification experiments have to be conducted to check if the determined critical fluxes call predict sustainable flux regimes. However, it is shown that using the step-by-step predicted critical fluxes as start...

  16. Menopause prediction and potential implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daan, Nadine M P; Fauser, Bart C J M

    2015-11-01

    Reproductive ageing in women is characterized by a decline in both the quantity and quality of oocytes. Menopause is reached upon exhaustion of the resting primordial follicle pool, occurring on average at 51 years of age (range 40-60 years). The mean global age at natural menopause (ANM) appears robust, suggesting a distinct genetic control. Accordingly, a strong correlation in ANM is observed between mothers and daughters. Few specific genetic determinants of ANM have been identified. Substantial efforts have been made to predict ANM by using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels. AMH serum concentrations at reproductive age predict ANM, but precision is currently limited. Early ANM is associated with early preceding fertility loss, whereas late menopause is associated with reduced morbidity and mortality later in life. Menopause affects various women's health aspects, including bone density, breast, the cardiovascular system, mood/cognitive function and sexual well-being. If the current trend of increasing human life expectancy persists, women will soon spend half their life postmenopause. Unfortunately, increased longevity does not coincide with an equal increase in years spend in good health. Future research should focus on determinants of long term health effects of ANM, and efforts to improve women's postmenopausal health and quality of life. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Multiphase, multicomponent phase behavior prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadmohammadi, Younas

    Accurate prediction of phase behavior of fluid mixtures in the chemical industry is essential for designing and operating a multitude of processes. Reliable generalized predictions of phase equilibrium properties, such as pressure, temperature, and phase compositions offer an attractive alternative to costly and time consuming experimental measurements. The main purpose of this work was to assess the efficacy of recently generalized activity coefficient models based on binary experimental data to (a) predict binary and ternary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems, and (b) characterize liquid-liquid equilibrium systems. These studies were completed using a diverse binary VLE database consisting of 916 binary and 86 ternary systems involving 140 compounds belonging to 31 chemical classes. Specifically the following tasks were undertaken: First, a comprehensive assessment of the two common approaches (gamma-phi (gamma-ϕ) and phi-phi (ϕ-ϕ)) used for determining the phase behavior of vapor-liquid equilibrium systems is presented. Both the representation and predictive capabilities of these two approaches were examined, as delineated form internal and external consistency tests of 916 binary systems. For the purpose, the universal quasi-chemical (UNIQUAC) model and the Peng-Robinson (PR) equation of state (EOS) were used in this assessment. Second, the efficacy of recently developed generalized UNIQUAC and the nonrandom two-liquid (NRTL) for predicting multicomponent VLE systems were investigated. Third, the abilities of recently modified NRTL model (mNRTL2 and mNRTL1) to characterize liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) phase conditions and attributes, including phase stability, miscibility, and consolute point coordinates, were assessed. The results of this work indicate that the ϕ-ϕ approach represents the binary VLE systems considered within three times the error of the gamma-ϕ approach. A similar trend was observed for the for the generalized model predictions using

  18. Predictable return distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    This paper provides detailed insights into predictability of the entire stock and bond return distribution through the use of quantile regression. This allows us to examine speci…c parts of the return distribution such as the tails or the center, and for a suf…ciently …ne grid of quantiles we can...... trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions...... are predictable as a function of economic state variables. The results are, however, very different for stocks and bonds. The state variables primarily predict only location shifts in the stock return distribution, while they also predict changes in higher-order moments in the bond return distribution. Out...

  19. Methane prediction in collieries

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Creedy, DP

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The primary aim of the project was to assess the current status of research on methane emission prediction for collieries in South Africa in comparison with methods used and advances achieved elsewhere in the world....

  20. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D

    2015-01-01

    Genomic prediction uses markers (SNPs) across the whole genome to predict individual breeding values at an early growth stage potentially before large scale phenotyping. One of the applications of genomic prediction in plant breeding is to identify the best individual candidate lines to contribute...... to next generation. The main goal of this study was to see the potential of using genomic prediction in a commercial Barley breeding program. The data used in this study was from Nordic Seed company which is located in Denmark. Around 350 advanced lines were genotyped with 9K Barely chip from Illumina....... Traits used in this study were grain yield, plant height and heading date. Heading date is number days it takes after 1st June for plant to head. Heritabilities were 0.33, 0.44 and 0.48 for yield, height and heading, respectively for the average of nine plots. The GBLUP model was used for genomic...

  1. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ predicted ozone. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Gantt, B., G. Sarwar, J. Xing, H. Simon, D. Schwede, B. Hutzell, R. Mathur, and A....

  2. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — model predicted concentrations. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Muñiz-Unamunzaga, M., R. Borge, G. Sarwar, B. Gantt, D. de la Paz, C....

  3. Stuck pipe prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alzahrani, Majed

    2016-03-10

    Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

  4. Genomic prediction using subsampling

    OpenAIRE

    Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

    2017-01-01

    Background Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the?genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each rou...

  5. Predicting Ideological Prejudice

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, Mark J.

    2017-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants? ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship...

  6. Predicting Ideological Prejudice

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, Mark

    2016-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants’ ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship was developed with a...

  7. Predicting ideological prejudice

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, M.J.

    2018-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants’ ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship...

  8. Multimodal Emoji Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Barbieri, Francesco; Ballesteros, Miguel; Ronzano, Francesco; Saggion, Horacio

    2018-01-01

    Emojis are small images that are commonly included in social media text messages. The combination of visual and textual content in the same message builds up a modern way of communication, that automatic systems are not used to deal with. In this paper we extend recent advances in emoji prediction by putting forward a multimodal approach that is able to predict emojis in Instagram posts. Instagram posts are composed of pictures together with texts which sometimes include emojis. We show that ...

  9. Genomic prediction using subsampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

    2017-03-24

    Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each round of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We evaluated the effect of subsampling bootstrap on prediction and computational parameters. Across datasets, we observed an optimal subsampling proportion of observations around 50% with replacement, and around 33% without replacement. Subsampling provided a substantial decrease in computation time, reducing the time to fit the model by half. On average, losses on predictive properties imposed by subsampling were negligible, usually below 1%. For each dataset, an optimal subsampling point that improves prediction properties was observed, but the improvements were also negligible. Combining subsampling with Gibbs sampling is an interesting ensemble algorithm. The investigation indicates that the subsampling bootstrap Markov chain algorithm substantially reduces computational burden associated with model fitting, and it may slightly enhance prediction properties.

  10. Deep Visual Attention Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenguan; Shen, Jianbing

    2018-05-01

    In this work, we aim to predict human eye fixation with view-free scenes based on an end-to-end deep learning architecture. Although Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have made substantial improvement on human attention prediction, it is still needed to improve CNN based attention models by efficiently leveraging multi-scale features. Our visual attention network is proposed to capture hierarchical saliency information from deep, coarse layers with global saliency information to shallow, fine layers with local saliency response. Our model is based on a skip-layer network structure, which predicts human attention from multiple convolutional layers with various reception fields. Final saliency prediction is achieved via the cooperation of those global and local predictions. Our model is learned in a deep supervision manner, where supervision is directly fed into multi-level layers, instead of previous approaches of providing supervision only at the output layer and propagating this supervision back to earlier layers. Our model thus incorporates multi-level saliency predictions within a single network, which significantly decreases the redundancy of previous approaches of learning multiple network streams with different input scales. Extensive experimental analysis on various challenging benchmark datasets demonstrate our method yields state-of-the-art performance with competitive inference time.

  11. Predictability of geomagnetic series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bellanger

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to lead a practical, rational and rigorous approach concerning what can be done, based on the knowledge of magnetic series, in the field of prediction of the extreme geomagnetic events. We compare the magnetic vector differential at different locations computed with different resolutions, from an entire day to minutes. We study the classical correlations and the simplest possible prediction scheme to conclude a high level of predictability of the magnetic vector variation. The results obtained are far from a random guessing: the error diagrams are either comparable with earthquake prediction studies or out-perform them when the minute sampling is used in accounting for hourly magnetic vector variation. We demonstrate how the magnetic extreme events can be predicted from the hourly value of the magnetic variation with a lead time of several hours. We compute the 2-D empirical distribution of consecutive values of the magnetic vector variation for the estimation of conditional probabilities of different types. The achieved results encourage further development of the approach to prediction of the extreme geomagnetic events.

    Key words. Ionosphere (modeling and forecasting – Magnetospheric physics (storms and substorms

  12. Predicting incident size from limited information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Englehardt, J.D.

    1995-01-01

    Predicting the size of low-probability, high-consequence natural disasters, industrial accidents, and pollutant releases is often difficult due to limitations in the availability of data on rare events and future circumstances. When incident data are available, they may be difficult to fit with a lognormal distribution. Two Bayesian probability distributions for inferring future incident-size probabilities from limited, indirect, and subjective information are proposed in this paper. The distributions are derived from Pareto distributions that are shown to fit data on different incident types and are justified theoretically. The derived distributions incorporate both inherent variability and uncertainty due to information limitations. Results were analyzed to determine the amount of data needed to predict incident-size probabilities in various situations. Information requirements for incident-size prediction using the methods were low, particularly when the population distribution had a thick tail. Use of the distributions to predict accumulated oil-spill consequences was demonstrated

  13. Improving predictions by cross pollination in time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schevenhoven, Francine; Selten, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Given a set of imperfect weather models, one could ask how these models can be combined in order to improve weather predictions produced with these models. In this study we explore a technique called cross-pollination in time (CPT, Smith 2001). In the CPT approach the models exchange states during the prediction. The number of possible predictions grows quickly with time and a strategy to retain only a small number of predictions, called pruning, needs to be developed. In the learning phase a pruning strategy is proposed based on retaining those solutions that remain closest to the truth. From the learning phase probabilities are derived that determine weights to be applied to the imperfect models in the forecast phase. The CPT technique is explored using low-order dynamical systems and applied to a global atmospheric model. First results indicate that the CPT approach improves the forecast quality over the individual models.

  14. Predicting the future of sports organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jugoslav Vojinovic

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The current crisis of sport in Serbia justifies its prediction of real potential future of sport organizations. Sample of respondents (N=277 was divided in two subsamples: 113 professional persons involved in the management of sports clubs ("experimental" sample and 164 individuals ("control" sample. The results of structural analysis showed that experimental sample based its vision on the staff as a determinant of the system, which is providing creativity as a characteristic of the organizational culture of the club. Control subsample of respondents could indicate some characteristic variables to predict the future of clubs, but can't say a clear prediction system based on a long sequence of reasoning. We can conclude that the mentioned two sub-samples are differerent in terms of the ability to orient to predict the future of their clubs on the basis of assessment of the key variables that shape the future scenarios.

  15. Cytomics in predictive medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnok, Attila; Valet, Guenther K.

    2004-07-01

    Predictive Medicine aims at the detection of changes in patient's disease state prior to the manifestation of deterioration or improvement of the current status. Patient-specific, disease-course predictions with >95% or >99% accuracy during therapy would be highly valuable for everyday medicine. If these predictors were available, disease aggravation or progression, frequently accompanied by irreversible tissue damage or therapeutic side effects, could then potentially be avoided by early preventive therapy. The molecular analysis of heterogeneous cellular systems (Cytomics) by cytometry in conjunction with pattern-oriented bioinformatic analysis of the multiparametric cytometric and other data provides a promising approach to individualized or personalized medical treatment or disease management. Predictive medicine is best implemented by cell oriented measurements e.g. by flow or image cytometry. Cell oriented gene or protein arrays as well as bead arrays for the capture of solute molecules form serum, plasma, urine or liquor are equally of high value. Clinical applications of predictive medicine by Cytomics will include multi organ failure in sepsis or non infectious posttraumatic shock in intensive care, or the pretherapeutic identification of high risk patients in cancer cytostatic. Early individualized therapy may provide better survival chances for individual patient at concomitant cost containment. Predictive medicine guided early reduction or stop of therapy may lower or abrogate potential therapeutic side effects. Further important aspects of predictive medicine concern the preoperative identification of patients with a tendency for postoperative complications or coronary artery disease patients with an increased tendency for restenosis. As a consequence, better patient care and new forms of inductive scientific hypothesis development based on the interpretation of predictive data patterns are at reach.

  16. An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Deng

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

  17. An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xin; Gumm, Jordan; Karki, Suman; Eickholt, Jesse; Cheng, Jianlin

    2015-07-07

    Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

  18. Development and validation of PRE-DELIRIC (PREdiction of DELIRium in ICu patients) delirium prediction model for intensive care patients: observational multicentre study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boogaard, M.W. van den; Pickkers, P.; Slooter, A.J.; Kuiper, M.A.; Spronk, P.E.; Voort, P.H. van der; Hoeven, J.G. van der; Donders, R.; Achterberg, T. van; Schoonhoven, L.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a delirium prediction model for adult intensive care patients and determine its additional value compared with prediction by caregivers. DESIGN: Observational multicentre study. SETTING: Five intensive care units in the Netherlands (two university hospitals and

  19. Transionospheric propagation predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klobucher, J. A.; Basu, S.; Basu, S.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Davies, K.; Donatelli, D. E.; Fremouw, E. J.; Goodman, J. M.; Hartmann, G. K.; Leitinger, R.

    1979-01-01

    The current status and future prospects of the capability to make transionospheric propagation predictions are addressed, highlighting the effects of the ionized media, which dominate for frequencies below 1 to 3 GHz, depending upon the state of the ionosphere and the elevation angle through the Earth-space path. The primary concerns are the predictions of time delay of signal modulation (group path delay) and of radio wave scintillation. Progress in these areas is strongly tied to knowledge of variable structures in the ionosphere ranging from the large scale (thousands of kilometers in horizontal extent) to the fine scale (kilometer size). Ionospheric variability and the relative importance of various mechanisms responsible for the time histories observed in total electron content (TEC), proportional to signal group delay, and in irregularity formation are discussed in terms of capability to make both short and long term predictions. The data base upon which predictions are made is examined for its adequacy, and the prospects for prediction improvements by more theoretical studies as well as by increasing the available statistical data base are examined.

  20. Forex Market Prediction Using NARX Neural Network with Bagging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahbazi Nima

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new methodfor predicting movements in Forex market based on NARX neural network withtime shifting bagging techniqueand financial indicators, such as relative strength index and stochastic indicators. Neural networks have prominent learning ability but they often exhibit bad and unpredictable performance for noisy data. When compared with the static neural networks, our method significantly reducesthe error rate of the responseandimproves the performance of the prediction. We tested three different types ofarchitecture for predicting the response and determined the best network approach. We applied our method to prediction the hourly foreign exchange rates and found remarkable predictability in comprehensive experiments with 2 different foreign exchange rates (GBPUSD and EURUSD.

  1. Determining leach rates of monolithic waste forms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilliam, T.M.; Dole, L.R.

    1986-01-01

    The ANS 16.1 Leach Procedure provides a conservative means of predicting long-term release from monolithic waste forms, offering a simple and relatively quick means of determining effective solid diffusion coefficients. As presented here, these coefficients can be used in a simple model to predict maximum release rates or be used in more complex site-specific models to predict actual site performance. For waste forms that pass the structural integrity test, this model also allows the prediction of EP-Tox leachate concentrations from these coefficients. Thus, the results of the ANS 16.1 Leach Procedure provide a powerful tool that can be used to predict the waste concentration limits in order to comply with the EP-Toxicity criteria for characteristically nonhazardous waste. 12 refs., 3 figs

  2. Tide Predictions, California, 2014, NOAA

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The predictions from the web based NOAA Tide Predictions are based upon the latest information available as of the date of the user's request. Tide predictions...

  3. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  4. Predicting tile drainage discharge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Bo Vangsø; Kjærgaard, Charlotte; Petersen, Rasmus Jes

    More than 50 % of Danish agricultural areas are expected to be artificial tile drained. Transport of water and nutrients through the tile drain system to the aquatic environment is expected to be significant. For different mitigation strategies such as constructed wetlands an exact knowledge...... of the water load coming from the tile drainage system is therefore essential. This work aims at predicting tile drainage discharge using dynamic as well as a statistical predictive models. A large dataset of historical tile drain discharge data, daily discharge values as well as yearly average values were...... used in the analysis. For the dynamic modelling, a simple linear reservoir model was used where different outlets in the model represented tile drain as well as groundwater discharge outputs. This modelling was based on daily measured tile drain discharge values. The statistical predictive model...

  5. Predicting Ideological Prejudice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Mark J

    2017-06-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants' ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship was developed with a representative sample of Americans ( N = 4,940) and tested against models using the perceived status of and choice to belong to the target group as predictors. In four studies (total N = 2,093), ideology-prejudice associations were estimated, and these observed estimates were compared with the models' predictions. The model that was based only on perceived ideology was the most parsimonious with the smallest errors.

  6. Permeability prediction in chalks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alam, Mohammad Monzurul; Fabricius, Ida Lykke; Prasad, Manika

    2011-01-01

    The velocity of elastic waves is the primary datum available for acquiring information about subsurface characteristics such as lithology and porosity. Cheap and quick (spatial coverage, ease of measurement) information of permeability can be achieved, if sonic velocity is used for permeability...... prediction, so we have investigated the use of velocity data to predict permeability. The compressional velocity fromwireline logs and core plugs of the chalk reservoir in the South Arne field, North Sea, has been used for this study. We compared various methods of permeability prediction from velocities....... The relationships between permeability and porosity from core data were first examined using Kozeny’s equation. The data were analyzed for any correlations to the specific surface of the grain, Sg, and to the hydraulic property defined as the flow zone indicator (FZI). These two methods use two different approaches...

  7. Predicting the Sunspot Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    The 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered by an amateur astronomer in 1844. Visual and photographic observations of sunspots have been made by both amateurs and professionals over the last 400 years. These observations provide key statistical information about the sunspot cycle that do allow for predictions of future activity. However, sunspots and the sunspot cycle are magnetic in nature. For the last 100 years these magnetic measurements have been acquired and used exclusively by professional astronomers to gain new information about the nature of the solar activity cycle. Recently, magnetic dynamo models have evolved to the stage where they can assimilate past data and provide predictions. With the advent of the Internet and open data policies, amateurs now have equal access to the same data used by professionals and equal opportunities to contribute (but, alas, without pay). This talk will describe some of the more useful prediction techniques and reveal what they say about the intensity of the upcoming sunspot cycle.

  8. Predictive maintenance primer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flude, J.W.; Nicholas, J.R.

    1991-04-01

    This Predictive Maintenance Primer provides utility plant personnel with a single-source reference to predictive maintenance analysis methods and technologies used successfully by utilities and other industries. It is intended to be a ready reference to personnel considering starting, expanding or improving a predictive maintenance program. This Primer includes a discussion of various analysis methods and how they overlap and interrelate. Additionally, eighteen predictive maintenance technologies are discussed in sufficient detail for the user to evaluate the potential of each technology for specific applications. This document is designed to allow inclusion of additional technologies in the future. To gather the information necessary to create this initial Primer the Nuclear Maintenance Applications Center (NMAC) collected experience data from eighteen utilities plus other industry and government sources. NMAC also contacted equipment manufacturers for information pertaining to equipment utilization, maintenance, and technical specifications. The Primer includes a discussion of six methods used by analysts to study predictive maintenance data. These are: trend analysis; pattern recognition; correlation; test against limits or ranges; relative comparison data; and statistical process analysis. Following the analysis methods discussions are detailed descriptions for eighteen technologies analysts have found useful for predictive maintenance programs at power plants and other industrial facilities. Each technology subchapter has a description of the operating principles involved in the technology, a listing of plant equipment where the technology can be applied, and a general description of the monitoring equipment. Additionally, these descriptions include a discussion of results obtained from actual equipment users and preferred analysis techniques to be used on data obtained from the technology. 5 refs., 30 figs

  9. Zephyr - the prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2001-01-01

    utilities as partners and users. The new models are evaluated for five wind farms in Denmark as well as one wind farm in Spain. It is shown that the predictions based on conditional parametric models are superior to the predictions obatined by state-of-the-art parametric models.......This paper briefly describes new models and methods for predicationg the wind power output from wind farms. The system is being developed in a project which has the research organization Risø and the department of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling (IMM) as the modelling team and all the Danish...

  10. Towards Predictive Association Theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Tsivintzelis, Ioannis; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    2011-01-01

    . We use the term predictive in two situations: (i) with no use of binary interaction parameters, and (ii) multicomponent calculations using binary interaction parameters based solely on binary data. It is shown that the CPA equation of state can satisfactorily predict CO2–water–glycols–alkanes VLE...... and water–MEG–aliphatic hydrocarbons LLE using interaction parameters obtained from the binary data alone. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the NRHB equation of state is a versatile tool which can be employed equally well to mixtures with pharmaceuticals and solvents, including mixed solvents, as well...

  11. Basis of predictive mycology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantigny, Philippe; Guilmart, Audrey; Bensoussan, Maurice

    2005-04-15

    For over 20 years, predictive microbiology focused on food-pathogenic bacteria. Few studies concerned modelling fungal development. On one hand, most of food mycologists are not familiar with modelling techniques; on the other hand, people involved in modelling are developing tools dedicated to bacteria. Therefore, there is a tendency to extend the use of models that were developed for bacteria to moulds. However, some mould specificities should be taken into account. The use of specific models for predicting germination and growth of fungi was advocated previously []. This paper provides a short review of fungal modelling studies.

  12. Linguistic Structure Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Noah A

    2011-01-01

    A major part of natural language processing now depends on the use of text data to build linguistic analyzers. We consider statistical, computational approaches to modeling linguistic structure. We seek to unify across many approaches and many kinds of linguistic structures. Assuming a basic understanding of natural language processing and/or machine learning, we seek to bridge the gap between the two fields. Approaches to decoding (i.e., carrying out linguistic structure prediction) and supervised and unsupervised learning of models that predict discrete structures as outputs are the focus. W

  13. Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    therefore be of use. The Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool (RAPT) is a preoperative survey constructed to predict discharge disposition after total joint arthroplasty (TJA). The RAPT was developed and tested on a population of Australian patients undergoing joint replacement, but its validity in other...... data, including discharge disposition, in a dedicated database on a secure server. The database was queried by the nursing case manager to retrieve the RAPT scores of all patients captured during this time period. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the scores and determine predictive...

  14. Predicting Marital Therapy Dropouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allgood, Scot M.; Crane, D. Russell

    1991-01-01

    Attempted to predict therapy dropouts using data gathered at marital therapy intake with 474 couples seeking marital therapy who attended at least 1 session. Significant predictors of dropping out included having less than two children, having a male intake clinician, and presenting problem relating only to one spouse. (Author/ABL)

  15. Predicting Sustainable Work Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Kim Sundtoft

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior...... condition influence their sustainable work behavior. A new definition of sustainable work behavior is proposed....

  16. Vertebral Fracture Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2008-01-01

    Vertebral Fracture Prediction A method of processing data derived from an image of at least part of a spine is provided for estimating the risk of a future fracture in vertebraeof the spine. Position data relating to at least four neighbouring vertebrae of the spine is processed. The curvature...

  17. Predicting Pilot Retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-15

    forever… Gig ‘Em! Dale W. Stanley III vii Table of Contents Page Acknowledgments...over the last 20 years. Airbus predicted that these trends would continue as emerging economies , especially in Asia, were creating a fast growing...US economy , pay differential and hiring by the major airlines contributed most to the decision to separate from the Air Force (Fullerton, 2003: 354

  18. Predicting coronary heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sillesen, Henrik; Fuster, Valentin

    2012-01-01

    Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death and disabling disease. Whereas risk factors are well known and constitute therapeutic targets, they are not useful for prediction of risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. Therefore, methods to identify atherosclerosis itself have bee...

  19. Prediction method abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This conference was held December 4--8, 1994 in Asilomar, California. The purpose of this meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information concerning the prediction of protein structure. Attention if focused on the following: comparative modeling; sequence to fold assignment; and ab initio folding.

  20. Predicting visibility of aircraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew; Ramirez, Cesar V; Salud, Ellen

    2009-05-20

    Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO). In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration.

  1. Predicting ideological prejudice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandt, M.J.

    2018-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants’ ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models

  2. Predicting Reasoning from Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan; Hayes, Brett K.

    2011-01-01

    In an effort to assess the relations between reasoning and memory, in 8 experiments, the authors examined how well responses on an inductive reasoning task are predicted from responses on a recognition memory task for the same picture stimuli. Across several experimental manipulations, such as varying study time, presentation frequency, and the…

  3. Steering smog prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. van Liere (Robert); J.J. van Wijk (Jack)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThe use of computational steering for smog prediction is described. This application is representative for many underlying issues found in steering high performance applications: high computing times, large data sets, and many different input parameters. After a short description of the

  4. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jorgensen, C.B.; Suetens, S.; Tyran, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto

  5. Predicting tuberculosis among migrant groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, R. E.; Plant, A. J.

    2002-01-01

    In industrialized countries migrants remain a high-risk group for tuberculosis (TB). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the ability of indicators of TB incidence in the country of birth to predict the incidence of TB among migrants in Australia during 1997. World Health Organization total case notifications, new smear-positive case notifications and the estimated incidence of TB by country of birth explained 55, 69 and 87% of the variance in TB incidence in Australia, respectively. Gross national income of the country of birth and unemployment level in Australia were also significant predictors of TB in migrant groups. Indicators of the incidence of TB in the country of birth are the most important group-level predictors of the rate of TB among migrants in Australia. PMID:12558347

  6. New frontiers in PDF determination

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) are a crucial input at the LHC, their uncertainty often being the limiting factor in the accuracy of theoretical predictions. At the same time the LHC is delivering a number of precise measurements that have the potential to greatly constrain these functions. I will give an overview on the theory behind and on the state of the art of PDF determination. I will then mention the new theoretical and methodological challenges in modern PDF fits and explore the precision frontiers opened by the accuracy of the LHC data.

  7. Optimum Neural Network Architecture for Precipitation Prediction of Myanmar

    OpenAIRE

    Khaing Win Mar; Thinn Thu Naing

    2008-01-01

    Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a s...

  8. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...

  9. Testing and analysis of internal hardwood log defect prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Edward. Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The severity and location of internal defects determine the quality and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. Models have been developed to predict the size and position of internal defects based on external defect indicator measurements. These models were shown to predict approximately 80% of all internal knots based on external knot indicators. However, the size...

  10. Organisational culture of hospitals to predict turnover intentions of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was to determine if organisational culture predicts turnover intentions of professional nurses. A predictive model with organisational culture and various proposed mediating variables, namely knowledge sharing, organisational commitment, organisational citisenship behaviour and job satisfaction, ...

  11. Goal Setting and Expectancy Theory Predictions of Effort and Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossett, Dennis L.; Luce, Helen E.

    Neither expectancy (VIE) theory nor goal setting alone are effective determinants of individual effort and task performance. To test the combined ability of VIE and goal setting to predict effort and performance, 44 real estate agents and their managers completed questionnaires. Quarterly income goals predicted managers' ratings of agents' effort,…

  12. Adolescent-onset substance use disorders predict young adult mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Duncan B.; Martin, Christopher S.; Cornelius, Jack R.

    2009-01-01

    This study determined whether adolescent-onset substance use disorders (SUDs) prospectively predicted early mortality. Among 870 adolescents, 21 young adulthood deaths were observed. Adolescent SUDs, as well as gender, ethnic group, hazardous substance use, and drug trafficking, predicted these deaths. Among African American males with SUDs, 23% died by age 25. PMID:18486875

  13. Predicting performance : relative importance of students' background and past performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegers-Jager, Karen M.; Themmen, Axel P. N.; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

    ContextDespite evidence for the predictive value of both pre-admission characteristics and past performance at medical school, their relative contribution to predicting medical school performance has not been thoroughly investigated. ObjectivesThis study was designed to determine the relative

  14. Predicting Wellbeing in Europe? The Effect of the Financial Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, M. Azhar

    2015-01-01

    happiness. Nevertheless, 73 % of the predictions in 2008 and 57 % of predictions in 2010 were within the margin of error. These correct prediction percentages are not unusually low - rather they are slightly higher than before the crisis. It is surprising that happiness predictions are not adversely......Has the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s reduced the subjective wellbeing function's predictive power? Regression models for happiness are estimated for the three first rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS): 2002, 2004 and 2006. Many explanatory variables are significant...... with expected signs and an average determination coefficient around 0.25. Based on these estimated parameters happiness is predicted for the latest three rounds of the ESS: 2008, 2010 and 2012. Happiness is slightly underestimated in both 2008 and 2010, e.g. actual happiness generally is above predicted...

  15. Position automatic determination technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-10-01

    This book tells of method of position determination and characteristic, control method of position determination and point of design, point of sensor choice for position detector, position determination of digital control system, application of clutch break in high frequency position determination, automation technique of position determination, position determination by electromagnetic clutch and break, air cylinder, cam and solenoid, stop position control of automatic guide vehicle, stacker crane and automatic transfer control.

  16. Predicting hospitalization in children with acute asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buyuktiryaki, A Betul; Civelek, Ersoy; Can, Demet; Orhan, Fazıl; Aydogan, Metin; Reisli, Ismail; Keskin, Ozlem; Akcay, Ahmet; Yazicioglu, Mehtap; Cokugras, Haluk; Yuksel, Hasan; Zeyrek, Dost; Kocak, A Kadir; Sekerel, Bulent E

    2013-05-01

    Acute asthma is one of the most common medical emergencies in children. Appropriate assessment/treatment and early identification of factors that predict hospitalization are critical for the effective utilization of emergency services. To identify risk factors that predict hospitalization and to compare the concordance of the Modified Pulmonary Index Score (MPIS) with the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) guideline criteria in terms of attack severity. The study population was composed of children aged 5-18 years who presented to the Emergency Departments (ED) of the tertiary reference centers of the country within a period of 3 months. Patients were evaluated at the initial presentation and the 1(st) and 4(th) hours. Of the 304 patients (median age: 8.0 years [interquartile range: 6.5-9.7]), 51.3% and 19.4% required oral corticosteroids (OCS) and hospitalization, respectively. Attack severity and MPIS were found as predicting factors for hospitalization, but none of the demographic characteristics collected predicted OCS use or hospitalization. Hospitalization status at the 1(st) hour with moderate/severe attack severity showed a sensitivity of 44.1%, specificity of 82.9%, positive predictive value of 38.2%, and negative predictive value of 86.0%; for MPIS ≥ 5, these values were 42.4%, 85.3%, 41.0%, and 86.0%, respectively. Concordance in prediction of hospitalization between the MPIS and the GINA guideline was found to be moderate at the 1(st) hour (κ = 0.577). Attack severity is a predictive factor for hospitalization in children with acute asthma. Determining attack severity with MPIS and a cut-off value ≥ 5 at the 1(st) hour may help physicians in EDs. Having fewer variables and the ability to calculate a numeric value with MPIS makes it an easy and useful tool in clinical practice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular......We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto......, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”....

  18. Predicting Bankruptcy in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul RASHID

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to identify the financial ratios that are most significant in bankruptcy prediction for the non-financial sector of Pakistan based on a sample of companies which became bankrupt over the time period 1996-2006. Twenty four financial ratios covering four important financial attributes, namely profitability, liquidity, leverage, and turnover ratios, were examined for a five-year period prior bankruptcy. The discriminant analysis produced a parsimonious model of three variables viz. sales to total assets, EBIT to current liabilities, and cash flow ratio. Our estimates provide evidence that the firms having Z-value below zero fall into the “bankrupt” whereas the firms with Z-value above zero fall into the “non-bankrupt” category. The model achieved 76.9% prediction accuracy when it is applied to forecast bankruptcies on the underlying sample.

  19. Airframe noise prediction evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Kingo J.; Donelson, Michael J.; Huang, Shumei C.; Joshi, Mahendra C.

    1995-01-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy and adequacy of current airframe noise prediction methods using available airframe noise measurements from tests of a narrow body transport (DC-9) and a wide body transport (DC-10) in addition to scale model test data. General features of the airframe noise from these aircraft and models are outlined. The results of the assessment of two airframe prediction methods, Fink's and Munson's methods, against flight test data of these aircraft and scale model wind tunnel test data are presented. These methods were extensively evaluated against measured data from several configurations including clean, slat deployed, landing gear-deployed, flap deployed, and landing configurations of both DC-9 and DC-10. They were also assessed against a limited number of configurations of scale models. The evaluation was conducted in terms of overall sound pressure level (OASPL), tone corrected perceived noise level (PNLT), and one-third-octave band sound pressure level (SPL).

  20. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  1. Essays on Earnings Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Mark

    This dissertation addresses the prediction of corporate earnings. The thesis aims to examine whether the degree of precision in earnings forecasts can be increased by basing them on historical financial ratios. Furthermore, the intent of the dissertation is to analyze whether accounting standards...... affect the accuracy of analysts´earnings forecasts. Finally, the objective of the dissertation is to investigate how the stock market is affected by the accuracy of corporate earnings projections. The dissertation contributes to a deeper understanding of these issues. First, it is shown how earnings...... forecasts are not more accurate than the simpler forecasts based on a historical timeseries of earnings. Secondly, the dissertation shows how accounting standards affect analysts’ earnings predictions. Accounting conservatism contributes to a more volatile earnings process, which lowers the accuracy...

  2. Time-predictable architectures

    CERN Document Server

    Rochange, Christine; Uhrig , Sascha

    2014-01-01

    Building computers that can be used to design embedded real-time systems is the subject of this title. Real-time embedded software requires increasingly higher performances. The authors therefore consider processors that implement advanced mechanisms such as pipelining, out-of-order execution, branch prediction, cache memories, multi-threading, multicorearchitectures, etc. The authors of this book investigate the timepredictability of such schemes.

  3. Predictive Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolpert, David H.

    2005-01-01

    Probability theory governs the outcome of a game; there is a distribution over mixed strat.'s, not a single "equilibrium". To predict a single mixed strategy must use our loss function (external to the game's players. Provides a quantification of any strategy's rationality. Prove rationality falls as cost of computation rises (for players who have not previously interacted). All extends to games with varying numbers of players.

  4. From Prediction to Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kristian Steensen

    2017-01-01

    behavior or value-belief-norm theory), as it focuses on the dynamic psychological mechanisms that result in either success or failure in acting relative to a certain standard or goal. Similar to the intention-behavior gap, self-regulation research recognizes the occasional failure of people to adhere...... to their own environmental standards and goals. However, unlike prediction models, self-regulation research gives directions on how to reduce the frequency by which these failures occur....

  5. Are Emojis Predictable?

    OpenAIRE

    Barbieri, Francesco; Ballesteros, Miguel; Saggion, Horacio

    2017-01-01

    Emojis are ideograms which are naturally combined with plain text to visually complement or condense the meaning of a message. Despite being widely used in social media, their underlying semantics have received little attention from a Natural Language Processing standpoint. In this paper, we investigate the relation between words and emojis, studying the novel task of predicting which emojis are evoked by text-based tweet messages. We train several models based on Long Short-Term Memory netwo...

  6. Predictive Systems Toxicology

    KAUST Repository

    Kiani, Narsis A.

    2018-01-15

    In this review we address to what extent computational techniques can augment our ability to predict toxicity. The first section provides a brief history of empirical observations on toxicity dating back to the dawn of Sumerian civilization. Interestingly, the concept of dose emerged very early on, leading up to the modern emphasis on kinetic properties, which in turn encodes the insight that toxicity is not solely a property of a compound but instead depends on the interaction with the host organism. The next logical step is the current conception of evaluating drugs from a personalized medicine point-of-view. We review recent work on integrating what could be referred to as classical pharmacokinetic analysis with emerging systems biology approaches incorporating multiple omics data. These systems approaches employ advanced statistical analytical data processing complemented with machine learning techniques and use both pharmacokinetic and omics data. We find that such integrated approaches not only provide improved predictions of toxicity but also enable mechanistic interpretations of the molecular mechanisms underpinning toxicity and drug resistance. We conclude the chapter by discussing some of the main challenges, such as how to balance the inherent tension between the predictive capacity of models, which in practice amounts to constraining the number of features in the models versus allowing for rich mechanistic interpretability, i.e. equipping models with numerous molecular features. This challenge also requires patient-specific predictions on toxicity, which in turn requires proper stratification of patients as regards how they respond, with or without adverse toxic effects. In summary, the transformation of the ancient concept of dose is currently successfully operationalized using rich integrative data encoded in patient-specific models.

  7. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  8. Predicting Anthracycline Benefit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, John M S; McConkey, Christopher C; Munro, Alison F

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite as measu......PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite...... as measured with a centromere enumeration probe (CEP17) predicted sensitivity to anthracyclines, we report here an individual patient-level pooled analysis of data from five trials comparing anthracycline-based chemotherapy with CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil) as adjuvant chemotherapy...... trials for both recurrence-free (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.82; P = .001) and overall survival (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.85; P = .005). CONCLUSION: This prospectively planned individual-patient pooled analysis of patient cases from five adjuvant trials confirms that patients whose...

  9. Predicting Human Cooperation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J Nay

    Full Text Available The Prisoner's Dilemma has been a subject of extensive research due to its importance in understanding the ever-present tension between individual self-interest and social benefit. A strictly dominant strategy in a Prisoner's Dilemma (defection, when played by both players, is mutually harmful. Repetition of the Prisoner's Dilemma can give rise to cooperation as an equilibrium, but defection is as well, and this ambiguity is difficult to resolve. The numerous behavioral experiments investigating the Prisoner's Dilemma highlight that players often cooperate, but the level of cooperation varies significantly with the specifics of the experimental predicament. We present the first computational model of human behavior in repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games that unifies the diversity of experimental observations in a systematic and quantitatively reliable manner. Our model relies on data we integrated from many experiments, comprising 168,386 individual decisions. The model is composed of two pieces: the first predicts the first-period action using solely the structural game parameters, while the second predicts dynamic actions using both game parameters and history of play. Our model is successful not merely at fitting the data, but in predicting behavior at multiple scales in experimental designs not used for calibration, using only information about the game structure. We demonstrate the power of our approach through a simulation analysis revealing how to best promote human cooperation.

  10. Noncausal predictive image codec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balram, N; Moura, J F

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes a lossy image codec that uses a noncausal (or bilateral) prediction model coupled with vector quantization. The noncausal prediction model is an alternative to the causal (or unilateral) model that is commonly used in differential pulse code modulation (DPCM) and other codecs with a predictive component. We show how to obtain a recursive implementation of the noncausal image model without compromising its optimality and how to apply this in coding in much the same way as a causal predictor. We report experimental compression results that demonstrate the superiority of using a noncausal model based predictor over using traditional causal predictors. The codec is shown to produce high-quality compressed images at low bit rates such as 0.375 b/pixel. This quality is contrasted with the degraded images that are produced at the same bit rates by codecs using causal predictors or standard discrete cosine transform/Joint Photographic Experts Group-based (DCT/JPEG-based) algorithms.

  11. Predictive Dynamic Digital Holography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulaiman, Sennan David

    Digital holography has received recent attention for many imaging and sensing applications, including imaging through turbulent and turbid media, adaptive optics, three-dimensional projective display technology and optical tweezing. It holds several advantages over conventional imaging and wavefront sensing, chief among these being significantly fewer and simpler optical components and the retrieval of complex field. A significant obstacle for digital holography in real-time applications, such as wavefront sensing for high-energy laser systems and high-speed imaging for target tracking, is the fact that digital holography is computationally intensive; it requires iterative virtual wavefront propagation and hill-climbing algorithms to optimize sharpness criteria. This research demonstrates real-time methods for digital holography based on approaches for optimal and adaptive identification, prediction, and control of optical wavefronts. The methods presented integrate minimum-variance wavefront prediction into dynamic digital holography schemes to accelerate the wavefront correction and image sharpening algorithms. Further gains in computational efficiency are demonstrated in this work with a variant of localized sharpening in conjunction with predictive dynamic digital holography for real-time applications. This "subspace correction" method optimizes sharpness of local regions in a detector plane by parallel independent wavefront correction on reduced-dimension subspaces of the complex field in a spectral plane.

  12. Predicting big bang deuterium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hata, N.; Scherrer, R.J.; Steigman, G.; Thomas, D.; Walker, T.P. [Department of Physics, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (United States)

    1996-02-01

    We present new upper and lower bounds to the primordial abundances of deuterium and {sup 3}He based on observational data from the solar system and the interstellar medium. Independent of any model for the primordial production of the elements we find (at the 95{percent} C.L.): 1.5{times}10{sup {minus}5}{le}(D/H){sub {ital P}}{le}10.0{times}10{sup {minus}5} and ({sup 3}He/H){sub {ital P}}{le}2.6{times}10{sup {minus}5}. When combined with the predictions of standard big bang nucleosynthesis, these constraints lead to a 95{percent} C.L. bound on the primordial abundance deuterium: (D/H){sub best}=(3.5{sup +2.7}{sub {minus}1.8}){times}10{sup {minus}5}. Measurements of deuterium absorption in the spectra of high-redshift QSOs will directly test this prediction. The implications of this prediction for the primordial abundances of {sup 4}He and {sup 7}Li are discussed, as well as those for the universal density of baryons. {copyright} {ital 1996 The American Astronomical Society.}

  13. Predictive and Experimental Approaches for Elucidating Protein–Protein Interactions and Quaternary Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Oliver Nealon

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The elucidation of protein–protein interactions is vital for determining the function and action of quaternary protein structures. Here, we discuss the difficulty and importance of establishing protein quaternary structure and review in vitro and in silico methods for doing so. Determining the interacting partner proteins of predicted protein structures is very time-consuming when using in vitro methods, this can be somewhat alleviated by use of predictive methods. However, developing reliably accurate predictive tools has proved to be difficult. We review the current state of the art in predictive protein interaction software and discuss the problem of scoring and therefore ranking predictions. Current community-based predictive exercises are discussed in relation to the growth of protein interaction prediction as an area within these exercises. We suggest a fusion of experimental and predictive methods that make use of sparse experimental data to determine higher resolution predicted protein interactions as being necessary to drive forward development.

  14. Predicting Baseline for Analysis of Electricity Pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, T. [Ulsan National Inst. of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of); Lee, D. [Ulsan National Inst. of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of); Choi, J. [Ulsan National Inst. of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of); Spurlock, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sim, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Todd, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wu, K. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-05-03

    To understand the impact of new pricing structure on residential electricity demands, we need a baseline model that captures every factor other than the new price. The standard baseline is a randomized control group, however, a good control group is hard to design. This motivates us to devlop data-driven approaches. We explored many techniques and designed a strategy, named LTAP, that could predict the hourly usage years ahead. The key challenge in this process is that the daily cycle of electricity demand peaks a few hours after the temperature reaching its peak. Existing methods rely on the lagged variables of recent past usages to enforce this daily cycle. These methods have trouble making predictions years ahead. LTAP avoids this trouble by assuming the daily usage profile is determined by temperature and other factors. In a comparison against a well-designed control group, LTAP is found to produce accurate predictions.

  15. Life Prediction of Seals

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cassenti, Brice

    1998-01-01

    .... One method was based on measuring multiple rebounds of a pendulum dropped against the O-ring The second was based on determining the force displacement response of O-rings squeezed between two...

  16. Satisfaction as a determinant of compliance.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albrecht, G.; Hoogstraten, J.

    1998-01-01

    In this study the relation between satisfaction and compliance is examined in terms of specificity and predictive value. Satisfaction is assumed to be a determinant of compliance, especially if both concepts are measured at the same level of specificity (i.e., a dental level). A total of 176

  17. Model for predicting the injury severity score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi

    2015-07-01

    To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P  Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.

  18. Facilitating RNA structure prediction with microarrays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kierzek, Elzbieta; Kierzek, Ryszard; Turner, Douglas H; Catrina, Irina E

    2006-01-17

    Determining RNA secondary structure is important for understanding structure-function relationships and identifying potential drug targets. This paper reports the use of microarrays with heptamer 2'-O-methyl oligoribonucleotides to probe the secondary structure of an RNA and thereby improve the prediction of that secondary structure. When experimental constraints from hybridization results are added to a free-energy minimization algorithm, the prediction of the secondary structure of Escherichia coli 5S rRNA improves from 27 to 92% of the known canonical base pairs. Optimization of buffer conditions for hybridization and application of 2'-O-methyl-2-thiouridine to enhance binding and improve discrimination between AU and GU pairs are also described. The results suggest that probing RNA with oligonucleotide microarrays can facilitate determination of secondary structure.

  19. Critical evidence for the prediction error theory in associative learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terao, Kanta; Matsumoto, Yukihisa; Mizunami, Makoto

    2015-03-10

    In associative learning in mammals, it is widely accepted that the discrepancy, or error, between actual and predicted reward determines whether learning occurs. Complete evidence for the prediction error theory, however, has not been obtained in any learning systems: Prediction error theory stems from the finding of a blocking phenomenon, but blocking can also be accounted for by other theories, such as the attentional theory. We demonstrated blocking in classical conditioning in crickets and obtained evidence to reject the attentional theory. To obtain further evidence supporting the prediction error theory and rejecting alternative theories, we constructed a neural model to match the prediction error theory, by modifying our previous model of learning in crickets, and we tested a prediction from the model: the model predicts that pharmacological intervention of octopaminergic transmission during appetitive conditioning impairs learning but not formation of reward prediction itself, and it thus predicts no learning in subsequent training. We observed such an "auto-blocking", which could be accounted for by the prediction error theory but not by other competitive theories to account for blocking. This study unambiguously demonstrates validity of the prediction error theory in associative learning.

  20. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jørgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the ‘gambler’s fallacy’, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the ‘hot-hand fallacy’.......We investigate the ‘law of small numbers’ using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers...

  1. Epitope prediction methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karosiene, Edita

    on machine learning techniques. Several MHC class I binding prediction algorithms have been developed and due to their high accuracy they are used by many immunologists to facilitate the conventional experimental process of epitope discovery. However, the accuracy of these methods depends on data defining...... the NetMHCIIpan-3.0 predictor based on artificial neural networks, which is capable of giving binding affinities to any human MHC class II molecule. Chapter 4 of this thesis gives an overview of bioinformatics tools developed by the Immunological Bioinformatics group at Center for Biological Sequence...

  2. Predicting chaotic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, J.D.; Sidorowich, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    We present a forecasting technique for chaotic data. After embedding a time series in a state space using delay coordinates, we ''learn'' the induced nonlinear mapping using local approximation. This allows us to make short-term predictions of the future behavior of a time series, using information based only on past values. We present an error estimate for this technique, and demonstrate its effectiveness by applying it to several examples, including data from the Mackey-Glass delay differential equation, Rayleigh-Benard convection, and Taylor-Couette flow

  3. Lattice of quantum predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drieschner, Michael

    1993-10-01

    What is the structure of reality? Physics is supposed to answer this question, but a purely empiristic view is not sufficient to explain its ability to do so. Quantum mechanics has forced us to think more deeply about what a physical theory is. There are preconditions every physical theory must fulfill. It has to contain, e.g., rules for empirically testable predictions. Those preconditions give physics a structure that is “a priori” in the Kantian sense. An example is given how the lattice structure of quantum mechanics can be understood along these lines.

  4. Foundations of predictive analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, James

    2012-01-01

    Drawing on the authors' two decades of experience in applied modeling and data mining, Foundations of Predictive Analytics presents the fundamental background required for analyzing data and building models for many practical applications, such as consumer behavior modeling, risk and marketing analytics, and other areas. It also discusses a variety of practical topics that are frequently missing from similar texts. The book begins with the statistical and linear algebra/matrix foundation of modeling methods, from distributions to cumulant and copula functions to Cornish--Fisher expansion and o

  5. Predicting Sustainable Work Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Kim Sundtoft

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior....... Employee characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work condition are included in the extended model. A survey was handed out to 654 employees in Chinese factories. This research contributes by demonstrating how employee- characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work...... condition influence their sustainable work behavior. A new definition of sustainable work behavior is proposed....

  6. The 1986-87 atomic mass predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, P. E.

    1987-12-01

    A project to perform a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions has recently been concluded and will be published shortly in Atomic Data and Nuclear Data Tables. The project evolved from an ongoing comparison between available mass predictions and reports of newly measured masses of isotopes throughout the mass surface. These comparisons have highlighted a variety of features in current mass models which are responsible for predictions that diverge from masses determined experimentally. The need for a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions was therefore apparent and the project was organized and began at the last mass conference (AMCO-VII). Project participants included: Pape and Anthony; Dussel, Caurier and Zuker; Möller and Nix; Möller, Myers, Swiatecki and Treiner; Comay, Kelson, and Zidon; Satpathy and Nayak; Tachibana, Uno, Yamada and Yamada; Spanier and Johansson; Jänecke and Masson; and Wapstra, Audi and Hoekstra. An overview of the new atomic mass predictions may be obtained by written request.

  7. Predicting DNA hybridization kinetics from sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinny X.; Fang, John Z.; Duan, Wei; Wu, Lucia R.; Zhang, Angela W.; Dalchau, Neil; Yordanov, Boyan; Petersen, Rasmus; Phillips, Andrew; Zhang, David Yu

    2018-01-01

    Hybridization is a key molecular process in biology and biotechnology, but so far there is no predictive model for accurately determining hybridization rate constants based on sequence information. Here, we report a weighted neighbour voting (WNV) prediction algorithm, in which the hybridization rate constant of an unknown sequence is predicted based on similarity reactions with known rate constants. To construct this algorithm we first performed 210 fluorescence kinetics experiments to observe the hybridization kinetics of 100 different DNA target and probe pairs (36 nt sub-sequences of the CYCS and VEGF genes) at temperatures ranging from 28 to 55 °C. Automated feature selection and weighting optimization resulted in a final six-feature WNV model, which can predict hybridization rate constants of new sequences to within a factor of 3 with ∼91% accuracy, based on leave-one-out cross-validation. Accurate prediction of hybridization kinetics allows the design of efficient probe sequences for genomics research.

  8. Using Software Dependency to Bug Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng He

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Software maintenance, especially bug prediction, plays an important role in evaluating software quality and balancing development costs. This study attempts to use several quantitative network metrics to explore their relationships with bug prediction in terms of software dependency. Our work consists of four main steps. First, we constructed software dependency networks regarding five dependency scenes at the class-level granularity. Second, we used a set of nine representative and commonly used metrics—namely, centrality, degree, PageRank, and HITS, as well as modularity—to quantify the importance of each class. Third, we identified how these metrics were related to the proneness and severity of fixed bugs in Tomcat and Ant and determined the extent to which they were related. Finally, the significant metrics were considered as predictors for bug proneness and severity. The result suggests that there is a statistically significant relationship between class’s importance and bug prediction. Furthermore, betweenness centrality and out-degree metric yield an impressive accuracy for bug prediction and test prioritization. The best accuracy of our prediction for bug proneness and bug severity is up to 54.7% and 66.7% (top 50, Tomcat and 63.8% and 48.7% (top 100, Ant, respectively, within these two cases.

  9. Predicting hydrologic function with the streamwater mircobiome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, S. P.; URycki, D. R.; Crump, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    Recent advances in microbiology allow for rapid and cost-effective determination of the presence of a nearly limitless number of bacterial (and other) species within a water sample. Here, we posit that the quasi-unique taxonomic composition of the aquatic microbiome is an emergent property of a catchment that contains information about hydrologic function at multiple temporal and spatial scales, and term this approach `genohydrolgy.' As first a genohydrology case study, we show that the relative abundance of bacterial species within different operational taxonomic units (OTUs) from six large arctic rivers can be used to predict river discharge at monthly and longer timescales. Using only OTU abundance information and a machine-learning algorithm trained on OTU and discharge data from the other five rivers, our genohydrology approach is able to predict mean monthly discharge values throughout the year with an average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.50, while the recurrence interval of extreme flows at longer times scales in these rivers was predicted with an NSE of 0.04. This approach demonstrates considerable improvement over prediction of these quantities in each river based only on discharge data from the other five (our null hypothesis), which had average NSE values of -1.19 and -5.50 for the seasonal and recurrence interval discharge values, respectively. Overall the genohydrology approach demonstrates that bacterial diversity within the aquatic microbiome is a large and underutilized data resource with benefits for prediction of hydrologic function.

  10. Palmistry: A tool for dental caries prediction!

    OpenAIRE

    Nidhi Madan; Arun Rathnam; Neeti Bajaj

    2011-01-01

    Background: Dermatoglyphics can prove to be an extremely useful tool for preliminary investigations in conditions with a suspected genetic base. Since caries is a multifactorial disease with the influence of genetic pattern, early prediction for high-risk children can help in using effective and efficient caries preventive measures that are a part of the pedodontist arsenal. Aims and Objectives: This study was done to determine the genetic aspect involved in the occurrence of dental carie...

  11. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography

    OpenAIRE

    Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D.; Kofman, Jonathan; McIlroy, William E.

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed w...

  12. A New Method of Fatigue Life Prediction for Notched Specimen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JIN Dan

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The simulations of the notched specimens under multiaxial loading were conducted by finite element method. The simulation results show that the stress gradient increases with the decrease in notch radius for the same strain path. The equivalent strain method is used to predict the fatigue life based on the strain at the notched root. The prediction results are more conservative with the decrease in notch radius. The effective distance is determinated by the stress gradient method, and the effective distances are decreased with the decrease of notch radius for the same strain path. The fatigue life is predicted based on the strain at the effective distance, and the predictions are scattered and unconservative. Combining the test results and simulations, a new method determinating the effective distance is presented considering the strain gradient. Most prediction results are in a factor-2 scatter band.

  13. Time-series prediction and applications a machine intelligence approach

    CERN Document Server

    Konar, Amit

    2017-01-01

    This book presents machine learning and type-2 fuzzy sets for the prediction of time-series with a particular focus on business forecasting applications. It also proposes new uncertainty management techniques in an economic time-series using type-2 fuzzy sets for prediction of the time-series at a given time point from its preceding value in fluctuating business environments. It employs machine learning to determine repetitively occurring similar structural patterns in the time-series and uses stochastic automaton to predict the most probabilistic structure at a given partition of the time-series. Such predictions help in determining probabilistic moves in a stock index time-series Primarily written for graduate students and researchers in computer science, the book is equally useful for researchers/professionals in business intelligence and stock index prediction. A background of undergraduate level mathematics is presumed, although not mandatory, for most of the sections. Exercises with tips are provided at...

  14. Amyloidogenic determinants are usually not buried

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karletidi Carolina-Maria

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Amyloidoses are a group of usually fatal diseases, probably caused by protein misfolding and subsequent aggregation into amyloid fibrillar deposits. The mechanisms involved in amyloid fibril formation are largely unknown and are the subject of current, intensive research. In an attempt to identify possible amyloidogenic regions in proteins for further experimental investigation, we have developed and present here a publicly available online tool that utilizes five different and independently published methods, to form a consensus prediction of amyloidogenic regions in proteins, using only protein primary structure data. Results It appears that the consensus prediction tool is slightly more objective than individual prediction methods alone and suggests several previously not identified amino acid stretches as potential amyloidogenic determinants, which (although several of them may be overpredictions require further experimental studies. The tool is available at: http://biophysics.biol.uoa.gr/AMYLPRED. Utilizing molecular graphics programs, like O and PyMOL, as well as the algorithm DSSP, it was found that nearly all experimentally verified amyloidogenic determinants (short peptide stretches favouring aggregation and subsequent amyloid formation, and several predicted, with the aid of the tool AMYLPRED, but not experimentally verified amyloidogenic determinants, are located on the surface of the relevant amyloidogenic proteins. This finding may be important in efforts directed towards inhibiting amyloid fibril formation. Conclusion The most significant result of this work is the observation that virtually all, to date, experimentally determined amyloidogenic determinants and the majority of predicted, but not yet experimentally verified short amyloidogenic stretches, lie 'exposed' on the surface of the relevant amyloidogenic proteins, and also several of them have the ability to act as conformational 'switches'. Experiments

  15. Nuclear criticality predictability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, J.B.

    1999-01-01

    As a result of lots of efforts, a large portion of the tedious and redundant research and processing of critical experiment data has been eliminated. The necessary step in criticality safety analyses of validating computer codes with benchmark critical data is greatly streamlined, and valuable criticality safety experimental data is preserved. Criticality safety personnel in 31 different countries are now using the 'International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments'. Much has been accomplished by the work of the ICSBEP. However, evaluation and documentation represents only one element of a successful Nuclear Criticality Safety Predictability Program and this element only exists as a separate entity, because this work was not completed in conjunction with the experimentation process. I believe; however, that the work of the ICSBEP has also served to unify the other elements of nuclear criticality predictability. All elements are interrelated, but for a time it seemed that communications between these elements was not adequate. The ICSBEP has highlighted gaps in data, has retrieved lost data, has helped to identify errors in cross section processing codes, and has helped bring the international criticality safety community together in a common cause as true friends and colleagues. It has been a privilege to associate with those who work so diligently to make the project a success. (J.P.N.)

  16. Prediction of Biomolecular Complexes

    KAUST Repository

    Vangone, Anna

    2017-04-12

    Almost all processes in living organisms occur through specific interactions between biomolecules. Any dysfunction of those interactions can lead to pathological events. Understanding such interactions is therefore a crucial step in the investigation of biological systems and a starting point for drug design. In recent years, experimental studies have been devoted to unravel the principles of biomolecular interactions; however, due to experimental difficulties in solving the three-dimensional (3D) structure of biomolecular complexes, the number of available, high-resolution experimental 3D structures does not fulfill the current needs. Therefore, complementary computational approaches to model such interactions are necessary to assist experimentalists since a full understanding of how biomolecules interact (and consequently how they perform their function) only comes from 3D structures which provide crucial atomic details about binding and recognition processes. In this chapter we review approaches to predict biomolecular complexesBiomolecular complexes, introducing the concept of molecular dockingDocking, a technique which uses a combination of geometric, steric and energetics considerations to predict the 3D structure of a biological complex starting from the individual structures of its constituent parts. We provide a mini-guide about docking concepts, its potential and challenges, along with post-docking analysis and a list of related software.

  17. Energy Predictions 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-10-01

    Even as the recession begins to subside, the energy sector is still likely to experience challenging conditions as we enter 2011. It should be remembered how very important a role energy plays in driving the global economy. Serving as a simple yet global and unified measure of economic recovery, it is oil's price range and the strength and sustainability of the recovery which will impact the ways in which all forms of energy are produced and consumed. The report aims for a closer insight into these predictions: What will happen with M and A (Mergers and Acquisitions) in the energy industry?; What are the prospects for renewables?; Will the water-energy nexus grow in importance?; How will technological leaps and bounds affect E and P (exploration and production) operations?; What about electric cars? This is the second year Deloitte's Global Energy and Resources Group has published its predictions for the year ahead. The report is based on in-depth interviews with clients, industry analysts, and senior energy practitioners from Deloitte member firms around the world.

  18. Predicting Alloreactivity in Transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten Geneugelijk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human leukocyte Antigen (HLA mismatching leads to severe complications after solid-organ transplantation and hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. The alloreactive responses underlying the posttransplantation complications include both direct recognition of allogeneic HLA by HLA-specific alloantibodies and T cells and indirect T-cell recognition. However, the immunogenicity of HLA mismatches is highly variable; some HLA mismatches lead to severe clinical B-cell- and T-cell-mediated alloreactivity, whereas others are well tolerated. Definition of the permissibility of HLA mismatches prior to transplantation allows selection of donor-recipient combinations that will have a reduced chance to develop deleterious host-versus-graft responses after solid-organ transplantation and graft-versus-host responses after hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. Therefore, several methods have been developed to predict permissible HLA-mismatch combinations. In this review we aim to give a comprehensive overview about the current knowledge regarding HLA-directed alloreactivity and several developed in vitro and in silico tools that aim to predict direct and indirect alloreactivity.

  19. [Predicting chance of disease: calculation using prediction rules].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeek, Anna J M; Verbeek, Jan F M; van Dijck, Jos A A M; Verbeek, André L M

    2014-01-01

    A prediction rule is a statistical model that can be used to predict the presence or absence of a disease based on a limited number of tests or predictive factors. One of the mathematical methods used to formulate prediction rules is a logistic regression analysis of patient data. The discriminatory power of a model is visualizable using box-whisker plots and ROC curves; calibration plots show the match between the predicted chance and the observed frequency of a disease. These graphs are used to assess whether a model adequately reproduces reality. On publication of prediction rules it is important that the regression function is written out and that the chances of a disease on the basis of diagnostic scores are displayed in a histogram. For the practical significance of the model, it is also important to know how often the predicted low, medium or high probabilities of a disease do actually occur in comparison with the advance chance of occurrence.

  20. On the Scalability of Time-predictable Chip-Multiprocessing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puffitsch, Wolfgang; Schoeberl, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Real-time systems need a time-predictable execution platform to be able to determine the worst-case execution time statically. In order to be time-predictable, several advanced processor features, such as out-of-order execution and other forms of speculation, have to be avoided. However, just using...... simple processors is not an option for embedded systems with high demands on computing power. In order to provide high performance and predictability we argue to use multiprocessor systems with a time-predictable memory interface. In this paper we present the scalability of a Java chip......-multiprocessor system that is designed to be time-predictable. Adding time-predictable caches is mandatory to achieve scalability with a shared memory multi-processor system. As Java bytecode retains information about the nature of memory accesses, it is possible to implement a memory hierarchy that takes...

  1. Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. Results We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm, is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. Conclusion We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

  2. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents experimentally based design parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash...... in marine atmospheric and submersed South Scandinavian environment. The design parameters are based on sequential measurements of 86 chloride profiles taken over ten years from 13 different types of concrete. The design parameters provide the input for an analytical model for chloride profiles as function...... of depth and time, when both the surface chloride concentration and the diffusion coefficient are allowed to vary in time. The model is presented in a companion paper....

  3. Motor degradation prediction methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-12-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor`s duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures.

  4. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents the state-of-the art: an analytical model which describes chloride profiles in concrete as function of depth...... makes physical sense for the design engineer, i.e. the achieved chloride diffusion coefficients at 1 year and 100 years, D1 and D100 respectively, and the corresponding achieved chloride concentrations at the exposed concrete surface, C1 and C100. Data from field exposure supports the assumption of time...... dependent surface chloride concentrations and the diffusion coefficients. Model parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash in marine atmospheric and submerged South Scandinavian environment are suggested in a companion paper based on 10 years field exposure data....

  5. Motor degradation prediction methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor's duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures

  6. Gender determination by odontometric method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litha; Girish, H C; Murgod, Sanjay; Savita, J K

    2017-01-01

    Gender determination is central in establishing personal identification from human skeletal remains. The study was conducted to find out the accuracy with which gender can be determined by odontometric methods. To investigate the mesiodistal (MD) and buccolingual (BL) dimensions of all the teeth of permanent dentition to find new parameters to differentiate between male and female teeth and to assess whether each type of linear measurement can be used independently in odontometric sex differentiation. The study was conducted at a dental college on a composite group of 500 individuals comprising 250 males and 250 females. Impressions of upper and lower jaws were made with alginate impression material and casts prepared with dental stone. A digital Vernier calliper was used to measure the BL and MD dimensions of all the upper teeth except the third molars. The results were subjected to statistical analysis using univariate analysis and linear stepwise discriminant function analysis to find the variables which discriminate gender significantly. The MD and BL dimensions between males and females were statistically significant. The predicted value for correct classification of gender was also statistically significant. The ability to differentiate gender in the population using stepwise discriminant functions was found to be very high with 99.8% accuracy with males showing statistically larger teeth than females. This is similar to the near 100% success in gender determination using pelvic and skull bones.

  7. Plume rise predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, G.A.

    1976-01-01

    Anyone involved with diffusion calculations becomes well aware of the strong dependence of maximum ground concentrations on the effective stack height, h/sub e/. For most conditions chi/sub max/ is approximately proportional to h/sub e/ -2 , as has been recognized at least since 1936 (Bosanquet and Pearson). Making allowance for the gradual decrease in the ratio of vertical to lateral diffusion at increasing heights, the exponent is slightly larger, say chi/sub max/ approximately h/sub e/ - 2 . 3 . In inversion breakup fumigation, the exponent is somewhat smaller; very crudely, chi/sub max/ approximately h/sub e/ -1 . 5 . In any case, for an elevated emission the dependence of chi/sub max/ on h/sub e/ is substantial. It is postulated that a really clever ignorant theoretician can disguise his ignorance with dimensionless constants. For most sources the effective stack height is considerably larger than the actual source height, h/sub s/. For instance, for power plants with no downwash problems, h/sub e/ is more than twice h/sub s/ whenever the wind is less than 10 m/sec, which is most of the time. This is unfortunate for anyone who has to predict ground concentrations, for he is likely to have to calculate the plume rise, Δh. Especially when using h/sub e/ = h/sub s/ + Δh instead of h/sub s/ may reduce chi/sub max/ by a factor of anywhere from 4 to infinity. Factors to be considered in making plume rise predictions are discussed

  8. Prediction of peak overlap in NMR spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hefke, Frederik; Schmucki, Roland; Güntert, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Peak overlap is one of the major factors complicating the analysis of biomolecular NMR spectra. We present a general method for predicting the extent of peak overlap in multidimensional NMR spectra and its validation using both, experimental data sets and Monte Carlo simulation. The method is based on knowledge of the magnetization transfer pathways of the NMR experiments and chemical shift statistics from the Biological Magnetic Resonance Data Bank. Assuming a normal distribution with characteristic mean value and standard deviation for the chemical shift of each observable atom, an analytic expression was derived for the expected overlap probability of the cross peaks. The analytical approach was verified to agree with the average peak overlap in a large number of individual peak lists simulated using the same chemical shift statistics. The method was applied to eight proteins, including an intrinsically disordered one, for which the prediction results could be compared with the actual overlap based on the experimentally measured chemical shifts. The extent of overlap predicted using only statistical chemical shift information was in good agreement with the overlap that was observed when the measured shifts were used in the virtual spectrum, except for the intrinsically disordered protein. Since the spectral complexity of a protein NMR spectrum is a crucial factor for protein structure determination, analytical overlap prediction can be used to identify potentially difficult proteins before conducting NMR experiments. Overlap predictions can be tailored to particular classes of proteins by preparing statistics from corresponding protein databases. The method is also suitable for optimizing recording parameters and labeling schemes for NMR experiments and improving the reliability of automated spectra analysis and protein structure determination.

  9. The Predictive Role of Emotional Intelligence on Personality and Shyness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Coskun; Bülbül, Ayse Eliüsük; Büyükbayraktar, Çagla Girgin

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of this research is to determine the relationship between shyness, emotional intelligence and the five factor personality traits in university students. Furthermore it aims to determine whether the emotional intelligence and personality traits predict the Shyness levels at a significant level. The population of this study…

  10. Update on protein structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hubbard, T; Tramontano, A; Barton, G

    1996-01-01

    Computational tools for protein structure prediction are of great interest to molecular, structural and theoretical biologists due to a rapidly increasing number of protein sequences with no known structure. In October 1995, a workshop was held at IRBM to predict as much as possible about a number...... of proteins of biological interest using ab initio pre!diction of fold recognition methods. 112 protein sequences were collected via an open invitation for target submissions. 17 were selected for prediction during the workshop and for 11 of these a prediction of some reliability could be made. We believe...

  11. The Comparison Study of Short-Term Prediction Methods to Enhance the Model Predictive Controller Applied to Microgrid Energy Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Hernández-Hernández

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting, optimal power system operation and energy management play key roles that can bring significant operational advantages to microgrids. This paper studies how methods based on time series and neural networks can be used to predict energy demand and production, allowing them to be combined with model predictive control. Comparisons of different prediction methods and different optimum energy distribution scenarios are provided, permitting us to determine when short-term energy prediction models should be used. The proposed prediction models in addition to the model predictive control strategy appear as a promising solution to energy management in microgrids. The controller has the task of performing the management of electricity purchase and sale to the power grid, maximizing the use of renewable energy sources and managing the use of the energy storage system. Simulations were performed with different weather conditions of solar irradiation. The obtained results are encouraging for future practical implementation.

  12. Refining intra-protein contact prediction by graph analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eyal Eran

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Accurate prediction of intra-protein residue contacts from sequence information will allow the prediction of protein structures. Basic predictions of such specific contacts can be further refined by jointly analyzing predicted contacts, and by adding information on the relative positions of contacts in the protein primary sequence. Results We introduce a method for graph analysis refinement of intra-protein contacts, termed GARP. Our previously presented intra-contact prediction method by means of pair-to-pair substitution matrix (P2PConPred was used to test the GARP method. In our approach, the top contact predictions obtained by a basic prediction method were used as edges to create a weighted graph. The edges were scored by a mutual clustering coefficient that identifies highly connected graph regions, and by the density of edges between the sequence regions of the edge nodes. A test set of 57 proteins with known structures was used to determine contacts. GARP improves the accuracy of the P2PConPred basic prediction method in whole proteins from 12% to 18%. Conclusion Using a simple approach we increased the contact prediction accuracy of a basic method by 1.5 times. Our graph approach is simple to implement, can be used with various basic prediction methods, and can provide input for further downstream analyses.

  13. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  14. CT determinants of prognosis in pancreatic carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreiber, A.E.; Honda, H.; Berbaum, K.; Franken, E.A.; Lu, C.H.

    1988-01-01

    Abdominal CT scans of 61 patients with pathologically proved pancreatic carcinoma were analyzed to determine the radiographic features that predict length of survival. Excluded from study were patients who underwent definitive surgical procedures (Whipple procedure or pancreatectomy) or who received radiation or chemotherapy. Scans were evaluated in 18 radiographic and clinicopathologic categories. Multifactorial regression analysis indicated that the factors that most accurately predict the length of patient survival are (1) size, (2) associated lymphadenopathy, (3) hepatic metastasis, (4) hepatoduodenal ligament involvement, and (5) involvement of the mesentery and/or peritoneum

  15. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation......, then rival strategies can still be compared based on repeated bootstraps of the same data. Often, however, the overall performance of rival strategies is similar and it is thus difficult to decide for one model. Here, we investigate the variability of the prediction models that results when the same...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  16. Small, but Determined: Technological Determinism in Nanoscience

    OpenAIRE

    Cyrus C.M. Mody

    2004-01-01

    Analysis of technological determinism by historians, sociologists, and philosophers has declined in recent years. Yet understanding this topic is necessary, particularly in examining the dynamics of emerging technologies and their associated research areas. This is especially true of nanotechnology, which, because of its roots in futurist traditions, employs unusual variants on classical determinist arguments. In particular, nanotechnology orients much more strongly to the past and future tha...

  17. Posterior predictive checking of multiple imputation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Cattram D; Lee, Katherine J; Carlin, John B

    2015-07-01

    Multiple imputation is gaining popularity as a strategy for handling missing data, but there is a scarcity of tools for checking imputation models, a critical step in model fitting. Posterior predictive checking (PPC) has been recommended as an imputation diagnostic. PPC involves simulating "replicated" data from the posterior predictive distribution of the model under scrutiny. Model fit is assessed by examining whether the analysis from the observed data appears typical of results obtained from the replicates produced by the model. A proposed diagnostic measure is the posterior predictive "p-value", an extreme value of which (i.e., a value close to 0 or 1) suggests a misfit between the model and the data. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the posterior predictive p-value as an imputation diagnostic. Using simulation methods, we deliberately misspecified imputation models to determine whether posterior predictive p-values were effective in identifying these problems. When estimating the regression parameter of interest, we found that more extreme p-values were associated with poorer imputation model performance, although the results highlighted that traditional thresholds for classical p-values do not apply in this context. A shortcoming of the PPC method was its reduced ability to detect misspecified models with increasing amounts of missing data. Despite the limitations of posterior predictive p-values, they appear to have a valuable place in the imputer's toolkit. In addition to automated checking using p-values, we recommend imputers perform graphical checks and examine other summaries of the test quantity distribution. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  18. Decay heat predictions using JEF1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobias, A.

    1986-11-01

    The first Joint Evaluated File (JEF1) of data for reactor calculations has been constructed under the auspices of the NEA Data Bank. The data available within JEF1 for the calculation of decay heat due to direct fission products has been examined and the evaluation procedures used to produce these data are described. Decay heat predictions using the JEF1 data have been compared with corresponding values obtained with the UK data files. Differences of up to a few percent are observed in the predictions for a fission pulse. These occur mainly at short cooling times and can be attributed to revised fission yield data. For practical applications the differences in integral predictions using JEF1 and UK data are shown to be much smaller. UK and JEF1 total decay heat predictions have also been compared with results of a least squares fit to measured data for both U235 and Pu239 and directly with results of measurements for U238 and Pu241. The principal decay heat nuclides at a cooling time of 1000 s were identified and it was found that, for a number of them, the decay characteristics had been determined from relatively few measurements. It was also shown that the decay data for these nuclides, present in both UK and JEF1 data libraries, offered scope for revision which would permit improvement in the agreement between measurement and prediction. As plans for JEF2 are prepared, consideration should be given to improve decay heat predictions. It has been shown that while there is a general requirement for further data on short lived nuclides there is also a specific need to re-examine experimentally the decay schemes of a number of fission products with effective half lives of around 1000 s. (author)

  19. Dst Prediction Based on Solar Wind Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Kyung Park

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We reevaluate the Burton equation (Burton et al. 1975 of predicting Dst index using high quality hourly solar wind data supplied by the ACE satellite for the period from 1998 to 2006. Sixty magnetic storms with monotonously decreasing main phase are selected. In order to determine the injection term (Q and the decay time (tau of the equation, we examine the relationships between Dst* and VB_s, Delta Dst* and VB_s, and Delta Dst* and Dst* during the magnetic storms. For this analysis, we take into account one hour of the propagation time from the ACE satellite to the magnetopause, and a half hour of the response time of the magnetosphere/ring current to the solar wind forcing. The injection term is found to be Q({nT}/h=-3.56VB_s for VB_s>0.5mV/m and Q({nT}/h=0 for VB_s leq0.5mV/m. The tau (hour is estimated as 0.060 Dst* + 16.65 for Dst*>-175nT and 6.15 hours for Dst* leq -175nT. Based on these empirical relationships, we predict the 60 magnetic storms and find that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted Dst* is 0.88. To evaluate the performance of our prediction scheme, the 60 magnetic storms are predicted again using the models by Burton et al. (1975 and O'Brien & McPherron (2000a. The correlation coefficients thus obtained are 0.85, the same value for both of the two models. In this respect, our model is slightly improved over the other two models as far as the correlation coefficients is concerned. Particularly our model does a better job than the other two models in predicting intense magnetic storms (Dst* lesssim -200nT.

  20. Performance Prediction Toolkit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-25

    The Performance Prediction Toolkit (PPT), is a scalable co-design tool that contains the hardware and middle-ware models, which accept proxy applications as input in runtime prediction. PPT relies on Simian, a parallel discrete event simulation engine in Python or Lua, that uses the process concept, where each computing unit (host, node, core) is a Simian entity. Processes perform their task through message exchanges to remain active, sleep, wake-up, begin and end. The PPT hardware model of a compute core (such as a Haswell core) consists of a set of parameters, such as clock speed, memory hierarchy levels, their respective sizes, cache-lines, access times for different cache levels, average cycle counts of ALU operations, etc. These parameters are ideally read off a spec sheet or are learned using regression models learned from hardware counters (PAPI) data. The compute core model offers an API to the software model, a function called time_compute(), which takes as input a tasklist. A tasklist is an unordered set of ALU, and other CPU-type operations (in particular virtual memory loads and stores). The PPT application model mimics the loop structure of the application and replaces the computational kernels with a call to the hardware model's time_compute() function giving tasklists as input that model the compute kernel. A PPT application model thus consists of tasklists representing kernels and the high-er level loop structure that we like to think of as pseudo code. The key challenge for the hardware model's time_compute-function is to translate virtual memory accesses into actual cache hierarchy level hits and misses.PPT also contains another CPU core level hardware model, Analytical Memory Model (AMM). The AMM solves this challenge soundly, where our previous alternatives explicitly include the L1,L2,L3 hit-rates as inputs to the tasklists. Explicit hit-rates inevitably only reflect the application modeler's best guess, perhaps informed by a few

  1. Can we predict the unpredictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golestani, Abbas; Gras, Robin

    2014-10-01

    Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecasting. Nonlinear properties of a time series are evaluated and used for long-term predictions. We used financial time series, medical time series and climate time series to evaluate our method. The results we obtained show that the long-term prediction of complex nonlinear time series is no longer unrealistic. The new method has the ability to predict the long-term evolutionary trend of stock market time series, and it attained an accuracy level with 100% sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of epileptic seizures up to 17 minutes in advance based on data from 21 epileptic patients. Our new method also predicted the trend of increasing global temperature in the last 30 years with a high level of accuracy. Thus, our method for making long-term time series predictions is vastly superior to existing methods. We therefore believe that our proposed method has the potential to be applied to many other domains to generate accurate and useful long-term predictions.

  2. Predicting tensorial electrophoretic effects in asymmetric colloids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mowitz, Aaron J.; Witten, T. A.

    2017-12-01

    We formulate a numerical method for predicting the tensorial linear response of a rigid, asymmetrically charged body to an applied electric field. This prediction requires calculating the response of the fluid to the Stokes drag forces on the moving body and on the countercharges near its surface. To determine the fluid's motion, we represent both the body and the countercharges using many point sources of drag known as Stokeslets. Finding the correct flow field amounts to finding the set of drag forces on the Stokeslets that is consistent with the relative velocities experienced by each Stokeslet. The method rigorously satisfies the condition that the object moves with no transfer of momentum to the fluid. We demonstrate that a sphere represented by 1999 well-separated Stokeslets on its surface produces flow and drag force like a solid sphere to 1% accuracy. We show that a uniformly charged sphere with 3998 body and countercharge Stokeslets obeys the Smoluchowski prediction [F. Morrison, J. Colloid Interface Sci. 34, 210 (1970), 10.1016/0021-9797(70)90171-2] for electrophoretic mobility when the countercharges lie close to the sphere. Spheres with dipolar and quadrupolar charge distributions rotate and translate as predicted analytically to 4% accuracy or better. We describe how the method can treat general asymmetric shapes and charge distributions. This method offers promise as a way to characterize and manipulate asymmetrically charged colloid-scale objects from biology (e.g., viruses) and technology (e.g., self-assembled clusters).

  3. Can shoulder dystocia be reliably predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, Jodie M; Catcheside, Britt; Scheil, Wendy

    2012-06-01

    To evaluate factors reported to increase the risk of shoulder dystocia, and to evaluate their predictive value at a population level. The South Australian Pregnancy Outcome Unit's population database from 2005 to 2010 was accessed to determine the occurrence of shoulder dystocia in addition to reported risk factors, including age, parity, self-reported ethnicity, presence of diabetes and infant birth weight. Odds ratios (and 95% confidence interval) of shoulder dystocia was calculated for each risk factor, which were then incorporated into a logistic regression model. Test characteristics for each variable in predicting shoulder dystocia were calculated. As a proportion of all births, the reported rate of shoulder dystocia increased significantly from 0.95% in 2005 to 1.38% in 2010 (P = 0.0002). Using a logistic regression model, induction of labour and infant birth weight greater than both 4000 and 4500 g were identified as significant independent predictors of shoulder dystocia. The value of risk factors alone and when incorporated into the logistic regression model was poorly predictive of the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. While there are a number of factors associated with an increased risk of shoulder dystocia, none are of sufficient sensitivity or positive predictive value to allow their use clinically to reliably and accurately identify the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. © 2012 The Authors ANZJOG © 2012 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  4. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  5. Predicting thyroxine requirements following total thyroidectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mistry, Dipan; Atkin, Stephen; Atkinson, Helen; Gunasekaran, Sinnappa; Sylvester, Deborah; Rigby, Alan S; England, R James

    2011-03-01

    Optimal thyroxine replacement following total thyroidectomy is critical to avoid symptoms of hypothyroidism. The aim of this study was to determine the best formula to determine the initiated replacement dose of levothyroxine immediately following total thyroidectomy. Prospective study. All patients were initiated on 100 μg levothyroxine and titrated to within the reference range for TSH and free T4. Correlations to height, weight, age, lean body mass (LBM), body surface area (BSA) and body mass index (BMI) were calculated. One hundred consecutive adult patients underwent total thyroidectomy for non-malignant disease. Comparison between three methods of levothyroxine dose prediction, aiming for a levothyroxine dose correct to within 25 μg of actual dose required. Correlations were seen between levothyroxine dose and patient age (r=-0.346, Pregression equation was calculated (predicted levothyroxine dose=[0·943 × bodyweight] + [-1.165 × age] + 125.8), simplified to (levothyroxine dose= bodyweight - age + 125) pragmatically. Initiating patients empirically on 100 μg post-operatively showed that 40% of patients achieved target within 25 μg of their required dose; this increased to 59% when using a weight-only dose calculation (1.6 μg/kg) and to 72% using the simplified regression equation. A simple calculated regression equation gives a more accurate prediction of initiated levothyroxine dose following total thyroidectomy, reducing the need for outpatient attendance for dose titration. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. Predictability of blocking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tosi, E.; Ruti, P.; Tibaldi, S.; D'Andrea, F.

    1994-01-01

    Tibaldi and Molteni (1990, hereafter referred to as TM) had previously investigated operational blocking predictability by the ECMWF model and the possible relationships between model systematic error and blocking in the winter season of the Northern Hemisphere, using seven years of ECMWF operational archives of analyses and day 1 to 10 forecasts. They showed that fewer blocking episodes than in the real atmosphere were generally simulated by the model, and that this deficiency increased with increasing forecast time. As a consequence of this, a major contribution to the systematic error in the winter season was shown to derive from the inability of the model to properly forecast blocking. In this study, the analysis performed in TM for the first seven winter seasons of the ECMWF operational model is extended to the subsequent five winters, during which model development, reflecting both resolution increases and parametrisation modifications, continued unabated. In addition the objective blocking index developed by TM has been applied to the observed data to study the natural low frequency variability of blocking. The ability to simulate blocking of some climate models has also been tested

  7. Predictive Food Microbiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Nina Bjerre

    Listeria monocytogenes is a well-known food borne pathogen that potentially causes listeriosis. No outbreaks or cases of listeriosis have been associated with cottage cheese, but several confirmed cases and outbreaks in the EU and the US have been related to dairy products made from raw or pasteu......Listeria monocytogenes is a well-known food borne pathogen that potentially causes listeriosis. No outbreaks or cases of listeriosis have been associated with cottage cheese, but several confirmed cases and outbreaks in the EU and the US have been related to dairy products made from raw...... or pasteurised milk. This, in combination with the fact that cottage cheese support growth of Listeria monocytogenes, induces a documentation requirement on the food producer. In the EU regulatory framework, mathematical models are recognised as a suitable supplement to traditional microbiological methods...... was clearly important to include when predicting growth response of Listeria monocytogenes in fermented dairy products. Alternative, semi-mechanistic, iimodelling approaches were evaluated based on methods applied in the fermentation technology. The dynamics of lactic acid concentration and product p...

  8. Nephelometric determination of fluorine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, R.E.

    1936-01-01

    Fluorine in minerals may be determined with the nephelometer to about 1 per cent of the fluorine. The determination is made on an aliquot of the sodium chloride solution of the fluorine, obtained by the Berzelius method of extraction. The fluorine is precipitated as colloidal calcium fluoride in alcoholic solution, gelatin serving as a protective colloid. Arsenates, sulfates, and phosphates, which interfere with the determination, must be removed.

  9. Determination of cerium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepin, V.V.; Kurbatova, V.I.; Fedorova, N.D.

    1980-01-01

    Techniques of cerium determination in steels and alloys are developed. Amperometric method of determination which is based on Ce(4) titration by a solution of double salt of sulfuric Fe(2) and ammonium when cerium amount exceeds 0.01% is suggested. Cerium is oxidated to tetravalent state by KMnO 4 . The elements interfering with the determination (Cr, Ni etc.) are separated by means of deposition. When cerium content exceeds 0.005% in steels and alloys the determination is carried out using photometric method with arsenazo 3 in hydrochloric medium (pH 1.8-2.3). Optimum concentration is 5-50 μg [ru

  10. SIS - Status Determination

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Status Determination dataset within the Species Information System (SIS) contains information related to overfishing, overfished, and approaching overfished...

  11. The use of near-infrared scanning for the prediction of pulp yield and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Calibration models to predict pulp yield, cellulose and lignin content were developed by applying chemometrics and partial least squares regression. Validation and determination of prediction accuracy of the models were performed using independent data. The prediction of cellulose and lignin were acceptable with ...

  12. Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Magister, Tone

    2009-01-01

    The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

  13. Prospects for decadal climate prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Keenlyside, Noel; Ba, Jin

    2010-01-01

    During the last decade, global surface temperatures did not increase as rapidly as in the preceding decades. Although relatively small compared to the observed centennial scale global warming, it has renewed interest in understanding and even predicting climate on time scales of decades, and sparked a community initiative on near‐term prediction that will feature in the fifth intergovernmental panel on climate change assessment report. Decadal prediction, however, is in its infancy, with only...

  14. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  15. Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

    2018-03-01

    Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

  16. Prediction of Wild-type Enzyme Characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geertz-Hansen, Henrik Marcus

    of biotechnology, including enzyme discovery and characterization. This work presents two articles on sequence-based discovery and functional annotation of enzymes in environmental samples, and two articles on analysis and prediction of enzyme thermostability and cofactor requirements. The first article presents...... a sequence-based approach to discovery of proteolytic enzymes in metagenomes obtained from the Polar oceans. We show that microorganisms living in these extreme environments of constant low temperature harbour genes encoding novel proteolytic enzymes with potential industrial relevance. The second article...... presents a web server for the processing and annotation of functional metagenomics sequencing data, tailored to meet the requirements of non-bioinformaticians. The third article presents analyses of the molecular determinants of enzyme thermostability, and a feature-based prediction method of the melting...

  17. Predicting Worker Exposure from a Glovebox Leak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, H.; Gordon, D. J.; Whicker, J. J.; Wannigman, D. L.

    2001-01-01

    It is difficult to predict immediate worker radiological consequences from a hypothetical accident. This is recognized in DOE safety analysis guidance and the reason such guidance does not call for quantitative determinations of such consequences. However, it would be useful to at least have a means of systematically and formally quantifying worker dose to be able to identify the relative risks of various processes and to provide an order-of-magnitude impression of absolute consequences. In this report, we present such a means in the form of a simple calculation model that is easily applied and generates reasonable, qualitative dose predictions. The model contains a scaling parameter whose value was deduced from extensive laboratory ventilation flow rate measurements performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) over the last several years and from recent indoor radioactive contamination dispersion measurements, also at LANL. Application of the model is illustrated with the aid of two example calculations

  18. Different Methods of Predicting Permeability in Shale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbia, Ernest Ncha; Fabricius, Ida Lykke; Krogsbøll, Anette

    Permeability is often very difficult to measure or predict in shale lithology. In this work we are determining shale permeability from consolidation tests data using Wissa et al., (1971) approach and comparing the results with predicted permeability from Kozeny’s model. Core and cuttings materials...... were obtained from Fjerritslev shale Formation in Juassic interval of Stenlille and Vedsted on-shore wells of Danish basin. The calculated permeability from specific surface and porosity vary from 0.09 to 48.53 μD while that calculated from consolidation tests data vary from 1000 μD at a low vertical...... effective stress to 9 μD at high vertical effective stress of 100 MPa. The indirect permeability calculated from consolidation tests falls in the same magnitude at higher vertical effective stress, above 40 MPa, as that of the Kozeny model for shale samples with high non-clay content ≥ 70% but are higher...

  19. Genetic models of homosexuality: generating testable predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilets, Sergey; Rice, William R

    2006-01-01

    Homosexuality is a common occurrence in humans and other species, yet its genetic and evolutionary basis is poorly understood. Here, we formulate and study a series of simple mathematical models for the purpose of predicting empirical patterns that can be used to determine the form of selection that leads to polymorphism of genes influencing homosexuality. Specifically, we develop theory to make contrasting predictions about the genetic characteristics of genes influencing homosexuality including: (i) chromosomal location, (ii) dominance among segregating alleles and (iii) effect sizes that distinguish between the two major models for their polymorphism: the overdominance and sexual antagonism models. We conclude that the measurement of the genetic characteristics of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) found in genomic screens for genes influencing homosexuality can be highly informative in resolving the form of natural selection maintaining their polymorphism. PMID:17015344

  20. Dividend Predictability Around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    We show that dividend growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our...... findings suggest that the apparent lack of dividend predictability in the U.S. does not uniformly extend to other countries. Rather, cross-country patterns in dividend predictability are driven by differences in firm characteristics and the extent to which dividends are smoothed....

  1. Total Ozone Prediction: Stratospheric Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Kawa, S. Ramdy; Douglass, Anne R.

    2003-01-01

    The correct prediction of total ozone as a function of latitude and season is extremely important for global models. This exercise tests the ability of a particular model to simulate ozone. The ozone production (P) and loss (L) will be specified from a well- established global model and will be used in all GCMs for subsequent prediction of ozone. This is the "B-3 Constrained Run" from M&MII. The exercise mostly tests a model stratospheric dynamics in the prediction of total ozone. The GCM predictions will be compared and contrasted with TOMS measurements.

  2. Predictability of Forced Lorenz Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Baosheng; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Jianping; Zhong, Quanjia

    2017-04-01

    Based on the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) approach, the influences of external forcing on the predictability are studied in the Lorenz systems with constant and quasi-periodic forces in this paper. The results indicate that for the Lorenz systems with constant and quasi-periodic forces, their predictability limits increase with the forcing strength. With the same magnitude and different directions, the constant or quasi-periodic forcing shows different effects on the predictability limit in the Lorenz system, and these effects become significant with the increase of the forcing strength. Generally speaking, the positive forcing leads to a higher predictability limit than the negative forcing. Therefore, when we think about the effects of positive and negative elements and phases in the atmosphere and ocean research, the predictability problems driven by different phases should be considered separately. In addition, the influences of constant and quasi-periodic forces on the predictability are different in the Lorenz system. The effect of the constant forcing on the predictability is mainly reflected in the linear phase of error growth, while the nonlinear phase should also be considered for the situation of the quasi-periodic forcing. The predictability limit of the system under constant forcing is longer than the system under quasi-periodic forcing. These results based on simple chaotic model could provide insight into the studies of the actual atmosphere predictability.

  3. Prediction based on mean subset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik

    2002-01-01

    , it is found that the proposed mean subset method has superior prediction performance than prediction based on the best subset method, and in some settings also better than the ridge regression and lasso methods. The conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo study is corroborated in an example in which prediction......Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...

  4. Precision determination of Vub

    CERN Document Server

    Bauer, C W; Luke, M; Bauer, Christian W.; Ligeti, Zoltan; Luke, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We review how to determine |Vub| from inclusive semileptonic B decay using combined cuts on the leptonic and hadronic invariant masses to eliminate the b -> c background. This leads to a determination of |Vub| with theoretical uncertainty at the 5 -10% level.

  5. CATALYTIC KINETIC SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC DETERMINATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    acetylchlorophosphonazo(CPApA) by hydrogen peroxide in 0.10 M phosphoric acid. A novel catalytic kinetic-spectrophotometric method is proposed for the determination of copper based on this principle. Copper(II) can be determined spectrophotometrically ...

  6. SHORT COMMUNICATION POTENTIOMETRIC DETERMINATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    a

    cations, the selectivity coefficients have been determined using the mixed solution method and the separate solution ... Even if the values of the selectivity coefficients determined through the separate solution method are smaller ... The expression of the regression equation for the calibration graph presented in Figure 1 is.

  7. Asteroids mass determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffmann, M.

    1989-01-01

    Basic methods for asteroid mass determinations and their errors are discussed. New results and some current developments in the astrometric method are reviewed. New methods and techniques, such as electronic imaging, radar ranging and space probes are becoming important for asteroid mass determinations. Mass and density estimations on rotational properties and possible satelites are also discussed

  8. CATALYTIC KINETIC SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC DETERMINATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on the property that in 0.12 M sulfuric acid medium titanium(IV) catalyzes the discoloring reaction of DBS-arsenazo oxidized by potassium bromate, a new catalytic kinetic spectrophotometric method for the determination of trace titanium (IV) was developed. The linear range of the determination of titanium is

  9. Predicting Financial Crime: Augmenting the Predictive Policing Arsenal

    OpenAIRE

    Lavigne, Sam; Clifton, Brian; Tseng, Francis

    2017-01-01

    Financial crime is a rampant but hidden threat. In spite of this, predictive policing systems disproportionately target "street crime" rather than white collar crime. This paper presents the White Collar Crime Early Warning System (WCCEWS), a white collar crime predictive model that uses random forest classifiers to identify high risk zones for incidents of financial crime.

  10. ATR confinement leakage determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuan, P.; Buescher, B.J.

    1998-01-01

    The air leakage rate from the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) confinement is an important parameter in estimating hypothesized accidental releases of radiation to the environment. The leakage rate must be determined periodically to assure that the confinement has not degraded with time and such determination is one of the technical safety requirements of ATR operation. This paper reviews the methods of confinement leakage determination and presents an analysis of leakage determination under windy conditions, which can complicate the interpretation of the determined leakage rates. The paper also presents results of analyses of building air exchange under windy conditions. High wind can enhance air exchange and this could increase the release rates of radioisotopes following an accident

  11. Phylogeny and species traits predict bird detectability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solymos, Peter; Matsuoka, Steven M.; Stralberg, Diana; Barker, Nicole K. S.; Bayne, Erin M.

    2018-01-01

    Avian acoustic communication has resulted from evolutionary pressures and ecological constraints. We therefore expect that auditory detectability in birds might be predictable by species traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We evaluated the relationship between phylogeny, species traits, and field‐based estimates of the two processes that determine species detectability (singing rate and detection distance) for 141 bird species breeding in boreal North America. We used phylogenetic mixed models and cross‐validation to compare the relative merits of using trait data only, phylogeny only, or the combination of both to predict detectability. We found a strong phylogenetic signal in both singing rates and detection distances; however the strength of phylogenetic effects was less than expected under Brownian motion evolution. The evolution of behavioural traits that determine singing rates was found to be more labile, leaving more room for species to evolve independently, whereas detection distance was mostly determined by anatomy (i.e. body size) and thus the laws of physics. Our findings can help in disentangling how complex ecological and evolutionary mechanisms have shaped different aspects of detectability in boreal birds. Such information can greatly inform single‐ and multi‐species models but more work is required to better understand how to best correct possible biases in phylogenetic diversity and other community metrics.

  12. Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

    2015-01-01

    This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

  13. The predictive mind and the experience of visual art work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ladislav eKesner

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Among the main challenges of the predictive brain/mind concept is how to link prediction at the neural level to prediction at the cognitive-psychological level and finding conceptually robust and empirically verifiable ways to harness this theoretical framework towards explaining higher-order mental and cognitive phenomena, including the subjective experience of aesthetic and symbolic forms. Building on the tentative prediction error account of visual art, this article extends the application of the predictive coding framework to the visual arts. It does so by linking this theoretical discussion to a subjective, phenomenological account of how a work of art is experienced. In order to engage more deeply with a work of art, viewers must be able to tune or adapt their prediction mechanism to recognize art as a specific class of objects whose ontological nature defies predictability, and they must be able to sustain a productive flow of predictions from low-level sensory, recognitional to abstract semantic, conceptual and affective inferences. The affective component of the process of predictive error optimization that occurs when a viewer enters into dialogue with a painting is constituted both by activating the affective affordances within the image and by the affective consequences of prediction error minimization itself. The predictive coding framework also has implications for the problem of the culturality of vision. A person´s mindset, which determines what top-down expectations and predictions are generated, is co-constituted by culture-relative skills and knowledge, which form hyperpriors that operate in the perception of art.

  14. The predictive mind and the experience of visual art work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesner, Ladislav

    2014-01-01

    Among the main challenges of the predictive brain/mind concept is how to link prediction at the neural level to prediction at the cognitive-psychological level and finding conceptually robust and empirically verifiable ways to harness this theoretical framework toward explaining higher-order mental and cognitive phenomena, including the subjective experience of aesthetic and symbolic forms. Building on the tentative prediction error account of visual art, this article extends the application of the predictive coding framework to the visual arts. It does so by linking this theoretical discussion to a subjective, phenomenological account of how a work of art is experienced. In order to engage more deeply with a work of art, viewers must be able to tune or adapt their prediction mechanism to recognize art as a specific class of objects whose ontological nature defies predictability, and they must be able to sustain a productive flow of predictions from low-level sensory, recognitional to abstract semantic, conceptual, and affective inferences. The affective component of the process of predictive error optimization that occurs when a viewer enters into dialog with a painting is constituted both by activating the affective affordances within the image and by the affective consequences of prediction error minimization itself. The predictive coding framework also has implications for the problem of the culturality of vision. A person’s mindset, which determines what top–down expectations and predictions are generated, is co-constituted by culture-relative skills and knowledge, which form hyperpriors that operate in the perception of art. PMID:25566111

  15. The predictive mind and the experience of visual art work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesner, Ladislav

    2014-01-01

    Among the main challenges of the predictive brain/mind concept is how to link prediction at the neural level to prediction at the cognitive-psychological level and finding conceptually robust and empirically verifiable ways to harness this theoretical framework toward explaining higher-order mental and cognitive phenomena, including the subjective experience of aesthetic and symbolic forms. Building on the tentative prediction error account of visual art, this article extends the application of the predictive coding framework to the visual arts. It does so by linking this theoretical discussion to a subjective, phenomenological account of how a work of art is experienced. In order to engage more deeply with a work of art, viewers must be able to tune or adapt their prediction mechanism to recognize art as a specific class of objects whose ontological nature defies predictability, and they must be able to sustain a productive flow of predictions from low-level sensory, recognitional to abstract semantic, conceptual, and affective inferences. The affective component of the process of predictive error optimization that occurs when a viewer enters into dialog with a painting is constituted both by activating the affective affordances within the image and by the affective consequences of prediction error minimization itself. The predictive coding framework also has implications for the problem of the culturality of vision. A person's mindset, which determines what top-down expectations and predictions are generated, is co-constituted by culture-relative skills and knowledge, which form hyperpriors that operate in the perception of art.

  16. Predicting epileptic seizures in advance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negin Moghim

    Full Text Available Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6-0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling, is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance.

  17. Predictions from an anisotropic inflationary era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitrou, Cyril; Uzan, Jean-Philippe; Pereira, Thiago S

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the predictions of an inflationary phase starting from a homogeneous and anisotropic universe of the Bianchi I type. After discussing the evolution of the background spacetime, focusing on the number of e-folds and the isotropization, we solve the perturbation equations and predict the power spectra of the curvature perturbations and gravity waves at the end of inflation. The main features of the early anisotropic phase is (1) a dependence of the spectra on the direction of the modes, (2) a coupling between curvature perturbations and gravity waves and (3) the fact that the two gravity wave polarizations do not share the same spectrum on large scales. All these effects are significant only on large scales and die out on small scales where isotropy is recovered. They depend on a characteristic scale that can, but a priori must not, be tuned to some observable scale. To fix the initial conditions, we propose a procedure that generalizes the one standardly used in inflation but that takes into account the fact that the WKB regime is violated at early times when the shear dominates. We stress that there exist modes that do not satisfy the WKB condition during the shear-dominated regime and for which the amplitude at the end of inflation depends on unknown initial conditions. On such scales, inflation loses its predictability. This study paves the way for the determination of the cosmological signature of a primordial shear, whatever the Bianchi I spacetime. It thus stresses the importance of the WKB regime to draw inflationary predictions and demonstrates that, when the number of e-folds is large enough, the predictions converge toward those of inflation in a Friedmann–Lemaître spacetime but that they are less robust in the case of an inflationary era with a small number of e-folds

  18. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  19. Predicting Success Study Using Students GPA Category

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Awan Setiawan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Maintaining student graduation rates are the main tasks of a University. High rates of student graduation and the quality of graduates is a success indicator of a university, which will have an impact on public confidence as stakeholders of higher education and the National Accreditation Board as a regulator (government. Making predictions of student graduation and determine the factors that hinders will be a valuable input for University. Data mining system facilitates the University to create the segmentation of students’ performance and prediction of their graduation. Segmentation of student by their performance can be classified in a quadrant chart is divided into 4 segments based on grade point average and the growth rate of students performance index per semester. Standard methodology in data mining i.e CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Procedure for Data Mining will be implemented in this research. Making predictions, graduation can be done through the modeling process by utilizing the college database. Some algorithms such as C5, C & R Tree, CHAID, and Logistic Regression tested in order to find the best model. This research utilizes student performance data for several classes. Parameters used in addition to GPA also included the master's students data are expected to build the student profile data. The outcome of the study is the student category based on their study performance and prediction of graduation. Based on this prediction, the university may recommend actions to be taken to improve the student achievement index and graduation rates. Keywords: graduation, segmentation, quadrant GPA, data mining, modeling algorithms

  20. Predicting Success Study Using Students GPA Category

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Awan Setiawan

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Maintaining student graduation rates are the main tasks of a University. High rates of student graduation and the quality of graduates is a success indicator of a university, which will have an impact on public confidence as stakeholders of higher education and the National Accreditation Board as a regulator (government. Making predictions of student graduation and determine the factors that hinders will be a valuable input for University. Data mining system facilitates the University to create the segmentation of students’ performance and prediction of their graduation. Segmentation of student by their performance can be classified in a quadrant chart is divided into 4 segments based on grade point average and the growth rate of students performance index per semester. Standard methodology in data mining i.e CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Procedure for Data Mining will be implemented in this research. Making predictions, graduation can be done through the modeling process by utilizing the college database. Some algorithms such as C5, C & R Tree, CHAID, and Logistic Regression tested in order to find the best model. This research utilizes student performance data for several classes. Parameters used in addition to GPA also included the master's students data are expected to build the student profile data. The outcome of the study is the student category based on their study performance and prediction of graduation. Based on this prediction, the  university may recommend actions to be taken to improve the student  achievement index and graduation rates.Keywords: graduation, segmentation, quadrant GPA, data mining, modeling algorithms

  1. Laser mass spectrometry for selective ultratrace determination

    CERN Document Server

    Wendt, K; Müller, P; Nörtershäuser, W; Schmitt, A; Trautmann, N; Bushaw, B A

    1999-01-01

    Resonance ionization mass spectrometry has been explored in respect to its capabilities for isobaric suppression, isotopic selectivity, and overall efficiency. Theoretical calculations within the density matrix formalism on coherent multi-step excitation processes predict high specifications, which have been confirmed by spectroscopic measurements in Ca and which make the technique attractive for ultratrace detection. Analytical applications are found in the determination of the ultratrace isotope sup 4 sup 1 Ca for cosmochemical, radiodating, and medical applications.

  2. EMD-Based Predictive Deep Belief Network for Time Series Prediction: An Application to Drought Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norbert A. Agana

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Drought is a stochastic natural feature that arises due to intense and persistent shortage of precipitation. Its impact is mostly manifested as agricultural and hydrological droughts following an initial meteorological phenomenon. Drought prediction is essential because it can aid in the preparedness and impact-related management of its effects. This study considers the drought forecasting problem by developing a hybrid predictive model using a denoised empirical mode decomposition (EMD and a deep belief network (DBN. The proposed method first decomposes the data into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs using EMD, and a reconstruction of the original data is obtained by considering only relevant IMFs. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA was applied to each IMF to determine the threshold for robust denoising performance. Based on their scaling exponents, irrelevant intrinsic mode functions are identified and suppressed. The proposed method was applied to predict different time scale drought indices across the Colorado River basin using a standardized streamflow index (SSI as the drought index. The results obtained using the proposed method was compared with standard methods such as multilayer perceptron (MLP and support vector regression (SVR. The proposed hybrid model showed improvement in prediction accuracy, especially for multi-step ahead predictions.

  3. Serum HER-2: Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for detecting metastatic recurrence in breast cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Patricia Diana; Jakobsen, Erik Hugger; Madsen, Jonna Skov

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of serum HER-2 for detecting metastatic recurrence in breast cancer patients.......The aim of this study was to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of serum HER-2 for detecting metastatic recurrence in breast cancer patients....

  4. Bronchial thermoplasty: activations predict response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langton, David; Sha, Joy; Ing, Alvin; Fielding, David; Thien, Francis; Plummer, Virginia

    2017-07-04

    Bronchial thermoplasty (BT) is an emerging bronchoscopic intervention for the treatment of severe asthma. The predictive factors for clinical response to BT are unknown. We examined the relationship between the number of radiofrequency activations applied and the treatment response observed. Data were collected from 24 consecutive cases treated at three Australian centres from June 2014 to March 2016. The baseline characteristics were collated along with the activations delivered. The primary response measure was change in the Asthma Control Questionnaire-5 (ACQ-5) score measured at 6 months post BT. The relationship between change in outcome parameters and the number of activations delivered was explored. All patients met the ERS/ATS definition for severe asthma. At 6 months post treatment, mean ACQ-5 improved from 3.3 ± 1.1 to 1.5 ± 1.1, p < 0.001. The minimal clinically significant improvement in ACQ-5 of ≥0.5 was observed in 21 out of 24 patients. The only significant variable that differed between the 21 responders and the three non-responders was the number of activations delivered, with 139 ± 11 activations in the non-responders, compared to 221 ± 45 activations in the responders (p < 0.01). A significant inverse correlation was found between change in ACQ-5 score and the number of activations, r = -0.43 (p < 0.05). The number of activations delivered during BT has a role in determining clinical response to treatment.

  5. Method for determining heterologous biosynthesis pathways

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Xin

    2017-08-10

    The present invention relates to a method and system for dynamically analyzing, determining, predicting and displaying ranked suitable heterologous biosynthesis pathways for a specified host. The present invention addresses the problem of finding suitable pathways for the endogenous metabolism of a host organism because the efficacy of heterologous biosynthesis is affected by competing endogenous pathways. The present invention is called MRE (Metabolic Route Explorer), and it was conceived and developed to systematically and dynamically search for, determine, analyze, and display promising heterologous pathways while considering competing endogenous reactions in a given host organism.

  6. Prolonged Pregnancy: Methods, Causal Determinants and Outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Annette Wind

    ) to study the incidence of prolonged pregnancy as a function of methods for determining gestational age; 2) to determine the risk of obstetrical and fetal complications in prolonged pregnancy; 3) to validate the self-reported gestational age in the National Birth Cohort; 4) to determine whether...... an ultrasound scan in the first or second trimester, or menstrual history was best at predicting the day of delivery; 5) to study the risk of recurrence of prolonged pregnancy as a function of change in male partner, social status and municipality; and 6) to detect prenatal risk indicators of prolonged...... pregnancy. Data from the Medical Birth Registry and the National Discharge Register from the period 1978 to 1995 were used to study the incidence of post-term delivery and determine the risk of complications associated with this condition (I). Data were furthermore linked to the Fertility Database to study...

  7. Neural network for prediction of superheater fireside corrosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makkonen, P. [Foster Wheeler Energia Oy, Karhula R and D Center, Karhula (Finland)

    1998-12-31

    Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses to the power companies. If the corrosion could be reliably predicted, new power plants could be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions could be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. If relations between inputs and the output are poorly known, conventional models depending on corrosion theories will fail. A prediction model based on a neural network is capable of learning from errors and improving its performance as the amount of data increases. The neural network developed during this study predicts superheater corrosion with 80 % accuracy at early stage of the project. (orig.) 10 refs.

  8. Evolutionary rate variation and RNA secondary structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, B.; Andersen, E.S.; Damgaard, C.

    2004-01-01

    Predicting RNA secondary structure using evolutionary history can be carried out by using an alignment of related RNA sequences with conserved structure. Accurately determining evolutionary substitution rates for base pairs and single stranded nucleotides is a concern for methods based on this type...... by applying rates derived from tRNA and rRNA to the prediction of the much more rapidly evolving 5'-region of HIV-1. We find that the HIV-1 prediction is in agreement with experimental data, even though the relative evolutionary rate between A and G is significantly increased, both in stem and loop regions...

  9. CNNcon: improved protein contact maps prediction using cascaded neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Ding

    Full Text Available BACKGROUNDS: Despite continuing progress in X-ray crystallography and high-field NMR spectroscopy for determination of three-dimensional protein structures, the number of unsolved and newly discovered sequences grows much faster than that of determined structures. Protein modeling methods can possibly bridge this huge sequence-structure gap with the development of computational science. A grand challenging problem is to predict three-dimensional protein structure from its primary structure (residues sequence alone. However, predicting residue contact maps is a crucial and promising intermediate step towards final three-dimensional structure prediction. Better predictions of local and non-local contacts between residues can transform protein sequence alignment to structure alignment, which can finally improve template based three-dimensional protein structure predictors greatly. METHODS: CNNcon, an improved multiple neural networks based contact map predictor using six sub-networks and one final cascade-network, was developed in this paper. Both the sub-networks and the final cascade-network were trained and tested with their corresponding data sets. While for testing, the target protein was first coded and then input to its corresponding sub-networks for prediction. After that, the intermediate results were input to the cascade-network to finish the final prediction. RESULTS: The CNNcon can accurately predict 58.86% in average of contacts at a distance cutoff of 8 Å for proteins with lengths ranging from 51 to 450. The comparison results show that the present method performs better than the compared state-of-the-art predictors. Particularly, the prediction accuracy keeps steady with the increase of protein sequence length. It indicates that the CNNcon overcomes the thin density problem, with which other current predictors have trouble. This advantage makes the method valuable to the prediction of long length proteins. As a result, the effective

  10. Who's afraid of determinism?

    OpenAIRE

    Stevenson, Leslie

    2014-01-01

    Because of the idealizations involved in the ideas of a total state of the world and of all the laws of nature, the thesis of all-encompassing determinism is unverifiable. Our everyday non-scientific talk of causation does not imply determinism; nor is it needed for the Kantian argument for a general causal framework as a condition for experience of an objective world. Determinism is at best a regulative ideal for science, something to be approached but never reached. Publisher PDF Peer...

  11. Airborne geoid determination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forsberg, René; Olesen, Arne Vestergaard; Bastos, L.

    2000-01-01

    Airborne geoid mapping techniques may provide the opportunity to improve the geoid over vast areas of the Earth, such as polar areas, tropical jungles and mountainous areas, and provide an accurate "seam-less" geoid model across most coastal regions. Determination of the geoid by airborne methods......-suited for geoid determination, with high-frequency survey and downward continuation noise being offset by the low-pass gravity to geoid filtering operation. In the paper the basic principles of airborne geoid determination are outlined, and examples of results of recent airborne gravity and geoid surveys...

  12. Determinants of Actor Rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellegaard, Chris

    Industrial companies must exercise influence on their suppliers (or supplier actors). Actor rationality is a central theme connected to this management task. In this article, relevant literature is studied with the purpose of shedding light on determinants of actor rationality. Two buyer......-supplier relations are investigated in a multiple case study, leading to the proposal of various additional factors that determine and shape actor rationality. Moreover a conceptual model of rationality determinants in the buyer-supplier relation is proposed, a model that may help supply managers analyse...... and understand actor rationalities. Finally managerial implications are discussed....

  13. Quadratic prediction of factor scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wansbeek, T

    1999-01-01

    Factor scores are naturally predicted by means of their conditional expectation given the indicators y. Under normality this expectation is linear in y but in general it is an unknown function of y. II is discussed that under nonnormality factor scores can be more precisely predicted by a quadratic

  14. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    weather and climate prediction. His interests include understanding variability and predictability of all tropical phenomena including the monsoon. B N Goswami .... change the global average annual mean surface temperature Ts' the external solar forcing ..... Colombia, Toronto, London, Sydney. p 532, 1981. •. A Miller, J C ...

  15. Predictions for Excited Strange Baryons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernando, Ishara P.; Goity, Jose L. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (TJNAF), Newport News, VA (United States)

    2016-04-01

    An assessment is made of predictions for excited hyperon masses which follow from flavor symmetry and consistency with a 1/N c expansion of QCD. Such predictions are based on presently established baryonic resonances. Low lying hyperon resonances which do not seem to fit into the proposed scheme are discussed.

  16. Predicting landslides in clearcut patches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond M. Rice; Norman H. Pillsbury

    1982-01-01

    Abstract - Accelerated erosion in the form of landslides can be an undesirable consequence of clearcut logging on steep slopes. Forest managers need a method of predicting the risk of such erosion. Data collected after logging in a granitic area of northwestern California were used to develop a predictive equation. A linear discriminant function was developed that...

  17. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B N Goswami is with the. Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the Indian Institute of. Science, Bangalore. After his PhD in Plasma Physics he was attracted to this field by the challenges in weather and climate prediction. His interests include understanding variability and predictability of all tropical phenomena.

  18. Dividend Predictability Around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    We show that dividend-growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our f...

  19. Progress toward seasonal prediction in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knaff, John Albert

    Seasonal prediction in the tropics has been a slowly developing, yet very important topic in Atmospheric Science. Its slow evolution is a product of its history, a history determined by the rise and fall of empires, technological advances, and scientific opinions, but motivated ultimately by profit. In recent years, long-lead forecasting techniques in the tropics have again become popular. The occurrence of strong El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, droughts, floods, and intense landfalling tropical cyclones, has again prompted the meteorological community to use their knowledge to create useful seasonal forecasts for several regions of the tropics. Such forecasts will facilitate better management of natural resources, disaster preparation, and economic growth in these regions. Much has been learned about seasonal forecasting in the tropics in the last 125 years and much will be learned in the future, but progress is gained slowly by the piecing together of a great number of observation studies. This paper details but a few such studies. Within, the history of seasonal prediction in the tropics is discussed. Following this discussion the paper examines the physical implications of summertime sea level pressure anomalies (SLPAs) in the tropical Atlantic, the development of a simple regression model to predict June through September SLPAs in the Caribbean Sea region, and the development of a statistical ENSO prediction method which is based entirely on the optimal combination of persistence, trends of initial conditions and climatology. The future of seasonal forecasting in the tropics is bright. New technology along with improved datasets is allowing diagnostic and predictive studies that were once thought too exhaustive to be undertaken. This optimistic opinion must be tempered by this fields long history. Public and scientific opinion can rapidly change if seasonal prediction is not approached responsibly. This responsibility entails a rigorous definition

  20. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... the performance of HIRLAM in particular with respect to wind predictions. To estimate the performance of the model two spatial resolutions (0,5 Deg. and 0.2 Deg.) and different sets of HIRLAM variables were used to predict wind speed and energy production. The predictions of energy production for the wind farms...... are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production...

  1. Slip Prediction through Tactile Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somrak PETCHARTEE

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a new way to predict contact slip using a resistive tactile sensor. The prototype sensor can be used to provide intrinsic information relating to geometrical features situated on the surface of grasped objects. Information along the gripper finger surface is obtained with a measurement resolution dependant on the number of discrete tactile elements. The tactile sensor predicts the partial slip of a tactile surface by sensing micro vibrations in tangential forces which are caused by an expansion of the slip regions within the contact area. The location of the local slip is not specified but its occurrence can be predicted immediately following micro vibration detection. Predictive models have been used to develop a set of rules which predict the slip based on fluctuations in tactile signal data.

  2. Predictive Biomarkers for Asthma Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medrek, Sarah K; Parulekar, Amit D; Hanania, Nicola A

    2017-09-19

    Asthma is a heterogeneous disease characterized by multiple phenotypes. Treatment of patients with severe disease can be challenging. Predictive biomarkers are measurable characteristics that reflect the underlying pathophysiology of asthma and can identify patients that are likely to respond to a given therapy. This review discusses current knowledge regarding predictive biomarkers in asthma. Recent trials evaluating biologic therapies targeting IgE, IL-5, IL-13, and IL-4 have utilized predictive biomarkers to identify patients who might benefit from treatment. Other work has suggested that using composite biomarkers may offer enhanced predictive capabilities in tailoring asthma therapy. Multiple biomarkers including sputum eosinophil count, blood eosinophil count, fractional concentration of nitric oxide in exhaled breath (FeNO), and serum periostin have been used to identify which patients will respond to targeted asthma medications. Further work is needed to integrate predictive biomarkers into clinical practice.

  3. Psychometric prediction of penitentiary recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina García, Pedro M; Baños Rivera, Rosa M

    2016-05-01

    Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred. Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists. High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants. These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.

  4. Dividend Predictability around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    demonstrate that aggregate dividend growth rates are highly predictable by the dividend yield and that dividend predictability is clearly stronger than return predictability in medium-sized and smaller countries that account for the majority of countries in the world. We show that this is true both...... in the time-series dimension (time variation in dividend yields strongly predicts future dividend growth rates) and in the cross- country dimension (sorting countries into portfolios depending on their lagged dividend yield produces a spread in dividend growth rates of more than 20% p.a.). In an economic...... assessment of this finding, we show that cash flow predictability is stronger in smaller and medium- sized countries because these countries also have more volatile cash flow growth and higher idiosyncratic return volatility....

  5. Prediction of Major Vascular Events after Stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ovbiagele, Bruce; Goldstein, Larry B.; Amarenco, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Identifying patients with recent stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) at high risk of major vascular events (MVEs; stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death) may help optimize the intensity of secondary preventive interventions. We evaluated the relationships between...... were analyzed. Hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox regression models were used to determine the risk of subsequent MVEs based on the FCRS predicting 20% or more 10-year coronary heart disease risk. The novel risk model was derived based on multivariable modeling with backward selection. Model discrimination...

  6. Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohr, S.H.; Evans, G.M.

    2010-01-01

    Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.

  7. Durum wheat quality prediction in Mediterranean environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toscano, P.; Gioli, B.; Genesio, L.

    2014-01-01

    Durum wheat is one of the most important agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area. In addition to yield, grain quality is very important in wheat markets because of the demand for high-quality end products such as pasta, couscous and bulgur wheat. Grain quality is directly affected by several...... agronomic and environmental factors. Our objective is to determine the general principles underlying how, in Mediterranean environments, grain protein content (GPC) is affected by these factors and provide a system model with high predictive ability. We initially evaluated the capability of the Delphi...

  8. Commentary Sex determination

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    PRAKASH KUMAR G

    2008-01-31

    ZW is reserved for female heterogamety.) The Radder et al study used lab incubation regimes that mimic temperature profiles of cool natural nests, so temperature probably determines sex at least occasionally in nature.

  9. Determinants for gallstone formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shabanzadeh, Daniel Monsted; Sorensen, Lars Tue; Jørgensen, Torben

    2016-01-01

    associations were found for blood pressure, smoking, alcohol consumption, HDL cholesterol, or triglycerides in meta-analyses. Conclusions: Age, female sex, BMI, non-HDL cholesterol, and polyps are independent determinants for gallstone formation. Incident gallstones and the metabolic syndrome share common risk...... on a prospective protocol, a systematic review of the literature was performed identifying all articles dealing with determinants of incident gallstones. Meta-analyses of comparable determinants were performed through fixed effect models. Results: Participants with no gallstones at baseline and with at least one...... re-examination were followed-up completely (mean 11.6 years, N = 2848). The overall cumulative incidence of gallstones was 0.60% per year. Independent positive determinants for incident gallstones were age, female sex, non-high density lipoprotein (non-HDL) cholesterol, and gallbladder polyps...

  10. Determining postural stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman, Erez (Inventor); Forth, Katharine E. (Inventor); Paloski, William H. (Inventor)

    2011-01-01

    A method for determining postural stability of a person can include acquiring a plurality of pressure data points over a period of time from at least one pressure sensor. The method can also include the step of identifying a postural state for each pressure data point to generate a plurality of postural states. The method can include the step of determining a postural state of the person at a point in time based on at least the plurality of postural states.

  11. Determining Reactor Neutrino Flux

    OpenAIRE

    Cao, Jun

    2011-01-01

    Flux is an important source of uncertainties for a reactor neutrino experiment. It is determined from thermal power measurements, reactor core simulation, and knowledge of neutrino spectra of fuel isotopes. Past reactor neutrino experiments have determined the flux to (2-3)% precision. Precision measurements of mixing angle $\\theta_{13}$ by reactor neutrino experiments in the coming years will use near-far detector configurations. Most uncertainties from reactor will be canceled out. Understa...

  12. Health determinants and podiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodie, B S

    2001-09-01

    Public health and podiatry have a natural union both through historical development and a shared interest in prevention. Podiatry is considered in terms of health determinants such as income, social support, education and environment. The author considers that podiatry has a constructive role to play in the improvement of health and well-being in terms of the previously unrecognised relationship of the profession to the determinants of health and population health promotion.

  13. Are abrupt climate changes predictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditlevsen, Peter

    2013-04-01

    It is taken for granted that the limited predictability in the initial value problem, the weather prediction, and the predictability of the statistics are two distinct problems. Lorenz (1975) dubbed this predictability of the first and the second kind respectively. Predictability of the first kind in a chaotic dynamical system is limited due to the well-known critical dependence on initial conditions. Predictability of the second kind is possible in an ergodic system, where either the dynamics is known and the phase space attractor can be characterized by simulation or the system can be observed for such long times that the statistics can be obtained from temporal averaging, assuming that the attractor does not change in time. For the climate system the distinction between predictability of the first and the second kind is fuzzy. This difficulty in distinction between predictability of the first and of the second kind is related to the lack of scale separation between fast and slow components of the climate system. The non-linear nature of the problem furthermore opens the possibility of multiple attractors, or multiple quasi-steady states. As the ice-core records show, the climate has been jumping between different quasi-stationary climates, stadials and interstadials through the Dansgaard-Oechger events. Such a jump happens very fast when a critical tipping point has been reached. The question is: Can such a tipping point be predicted? This is a new kind of predictability: the third kind. If the tipping point is reached through a bifurcation, where the stability of the system is governed by some control parameter, changing in a predictable way to a critical value, the tipping is predictable. If the sudden jump occurs because internal chaotic fluctuations, noise, push the system across a barrier, the tipping is as unpredictable as the triggering noise. In order to hint at an answer to this question, a careful analysis of the high temporal resolution NGRIP isotope

  14. Well-log based prediction of thermal conductivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuchs, Sven; Förster, Andrea

    Rock thermal conductivity (TC) is paramount for the determination of heat flow and the calculation of temperature profiles. Due to the scarcity of drill cores compared to the availability of petrophysical well logs, methods are desired to indirectly predict TC in sedimentary basins. Most of the w......Rock thermal conductivity (TC) is paramount for the determination of heat flow and the calculation of temperature profiles. Due to the scarcity of drill cores compared to the availability of petrophysical well logs, methods are desired to indirectly predict TC in sedimentary basins. Most...

  15. Leveraging genomic prediction to scan germplasm collection for crop improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Azevedo Peixoto, Leonardo; Zhang, Jiaoping; Lorenz, Aaron J.; Bhering, Leonardo L.

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the potential of genomic prediction (GP) for soybean resistance against Sclerotinia sclerotiorum (Lib.) de Bary, the causal agent of white mold (WM). A diverse panel of 465 soybean plant introduction accessions was phenotyped for WM resistance in replicated field and greenhouse tests. All plant accessions were previously genotyped using the SoySNP50K BeadChip. The predictive ability of six GP models were compared, and the impact of marker density and training population size on the predictive ability was investigated. Cross-prediction among environments was tested to determine the effectiveness of the prediction models. GP models had similar prediction accuracies for all experiments. Predictive ability did not improve significantly by using more than 5k SNPs, or by increasing the training population size (from 50% to 90% of the total of individuals). The GP model effectively predicted WM resistance across field and greenhouse experiments when each was used as either the training or validation population. The GP model was able to identify WM-resistant accessions in the USDA soybean germplasm collection that had previously been reported and were not included in the study panel. This study demonstrated the applicability of GP to identify useful genetic sources of WM resistance for soybean breeding. Further research will confirm the applicability of the proposed approach to other complex disease resistance traits and in other crops. PMID:28598989

  16. Leveraging genomic prediction to scan germplasm collection for crop improvement.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo de Azevedo Peixoto

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to explore the potential of genomic prediction (GP for soybean resistance against Sclerotinia sclerotiorum (Lib. de Bary, the causal agent of white mold (WM. A diverse panel of 465 soybean plant introduction accessions was phenotyped for WM resistance in replicated field and greenhouse tests. All plant accessions were previously genotyped using the SoySNP50K BeadChip. The predictive ability of six GP models were compared, and the impact of marker density and training population size on the predictive ability was investigated. Cross-prediction among environments was tested to determine the effectiveness of the prediction models. GP models had similar prediction accuracies for all experiments. Predictive ability did not improve significantly by using more than 5k SNPs, or by increasing the training population size (from 50% to 90% of the total of individuals. The GP model effectively predicted WM resistance across field and greenhouse experiments when each was used as either the training or validation population. The GP model was able to identify WM-resistant accessions in the USDA soybean germplasm collection that had previously been reported and were not included in the study panel. This study demonstrated the applicability of GP to identify useful genetic sources of WM resistance for soybean breeding. Further research will confirm the applicability of the proposed approach to other complex disease resistance traits and in other crops.

  17. Assessing predictive uncertainty in comparative toxicity potentials of triazoles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golsteijn, Laura; Iqbal, M Sarfraz; Cassani, Stefano; Hendriks, Harrie W M; Kovarich, Simona; Papa, Ester; Rorije, Emiel; Sahlin, Ullrika; Huijbregts, Mark A J

    2014-02-01

    Comparative toxicity potentials (CTPs) quantify the potential ecotoxicological impacts of chemicals per unit of emission. They are the product of a substance's environmental fate, exposure, and hazardous concentration. When empirical data are lacking, substance properties can be predicted. The goal of the present study was to assess the influence of predictive uncertainty in substance property predictions on the CTPs of triazoles. Physicochemical and toxic properties were predicted with quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs), and uncertainty in the predictions was quantified with use of the data underlying the QSARs. Degradation half-lives were based on a probability distribution representing experimental half-lives of triazoles. Uncertainty related to the species' sample size that was present in the prediction of the hazardous aquatic concentration was also included. All parameter uncertainties were treated as probability distributions, and propagated by Monte Carlo simulations. The 90% confidence interval of the CTPs typically spanned nearly 4 orders of magnitude. The CTP uncertainty was mainly determined by uncertainty in soil sorption and soil degradation rates, together with the small number of species sampled. In contrast, uncertainty in species-specific toxicity predictions contributed relatively little. The findings imply that the reliability of CTP predictions for the chemicals studied can be improved particularly by including experimental data for soil sorption and soil degradation, and by developing toxicity QSARs for more species. © 2013 SETAC.

  18. Novel intra prediction modes for VP10 codec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shleifer, Ariel; Lanka, Chinmayi; Setia, Mohit; Agarwal, Shubham; Hadar, Ofer; Mukherjee, Debargha

    2016-09-01

    The demand for high quality video is permanently on the rise and with it the need for more effective compression. Compression scope can be further expanded due to increased spatial correlation of pixels within a high quality video frame. One basic feature that takes advantage of pixels' spatial correlation for video compression is Intra-Prediction, which determines the codec's compression efficiency. Intra-Prediction enables significant reduction of the Intra-frame (I-frame) size and, therefore, contributes to more efficient bandwidth exploitation. It has been observed that the intra frame coding efficiency of VP9 is not as good as that of H.265/MPEG-HEVC. One possible reason is that HEVC's Intra-prediction algorithm uses as many as 35 prediction directions, while VP9 uses only 9 directions including the TM prediction mode. Therefore, there is high motivation to improve the Intra-Prediction scheme with new, original and proprietary algorithms that will enhance the overall performance of Google's future codec and bring its performance closer to that of HEVC. In this work, instead of using different angles for predictions, we introduce four unconventional Intra-Prediction modes for the VP10 codec - Weighted CALIC (WCALIC), Intra-Prediction using System of Linear Equations (ISLE), Prediction of Discrete Cosine Transformations (PrDCT) Coefficients and Reverse Least Power of Three (RLPT). Employed on a selection eleven (11) typical images with a variety of spatial characteristics, by using Mean Square Error (MSE) evaluation criteria, we show that our proposed algorithms (modes) were preferred and thus selected around 57% of the blocks, resulting in a reduced average prediction error, i.e. the MSE of 26%. We believe that our proposed techniques will achieve higher compression without compromising video quality, thus improving the Rate-Distortion (RD) performances of the compressed video stream.

  19. DASPfind: new efficient method to predict drug–target interactions

    KAUST Repository

    Ba Alawi, Wail

    2016-03-16

    Background Identification of novel drug–target interactions (DTIs) is important for drug discovery. Experimental determination of such DTIs is costly and time consuming, hence it necessitates the development of efficient computational methods for the accurate prediction of potential DTIs. To-date, many computational methods have been proposed for this purpose, but they suffer the drawback of a high rate of false positive predictions. Results Here, we developed a novel computational DTI prediction method, DASPfind. DASPfind uses simple paths of particular lengths inferred from a graph that describes DTIs, similarities between drugs, and similarities between the protein targets of drugs. We show that on average, over the four gold standard DTI datasets, DASPfind significantly outperforms other existing methods when the single top-ranked predictions are considered, resulting in 46.17 % of these predictions being correct, and it achieves 49.22 % correct single top ranked predictions when the set of all DTIs for a single drug is tested. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our method is best suited for predicting DTIs in cases of drugs with no known targets or with few known targets. We also show the practical use of DASPfind by generating novel predictions for the Ion Channel dataset and validating them manually. Conclusions DASPfind is a computational method for finding reliable new interactions between drugs and proteins. We show over six different DTI datasets that DASPfind outperforms other state-of-the-art methods when the single top-ranked predictions are considered, or when a drug with no known targets or with few known targets is considered. We illustrate the usefulness and practicality of DASPfind by predicting novel DTIs for the Ion Channel dataset. The validated predictions suggest that DASPfind can be used as an efficient method to identify correct DTIs, thus reducing the cost of necessary experimental verifications in the process of drug discovery. DASPfind

  20. Predictive Manufacturing: A Classification Strategy to Predict Product Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Abdul Rauf; Schiøler, Henrik; Kulahci, Murat

    2018-01-01

    manufacturing analytics model that employs a big data approach to predicting product failures; third, we illustrate the issue of high dimensionality, along with statistically redundant information; and, finally, our proposed method will be compared against the well-known classification methods (SVM, K......-nearest neighbor, artificial neural networks). The results from real data show that our predictive manufacturing analytics approach, using genetic algorithms and Voronoi tessellations, is capable of predicting product failure with reasonable accuracy. The potential application of this method contributes......Predicting failures can be considered a meaningful insight for the optimal planning of an industrial manufacturing process. In this era of advanced sensor technologies, when the collection of data from each step of the manufacturing process is common practice and advanced analytical skills enable...