Effects of amphibian chytrid fungus on individual survival probability in wild boreal toads

Science.gov (United States)

Pilliod, D.S.; Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Bartelt, P.E.; Corn, P.S.; Hossack, B.R.; Lambert, B.A.; Mccaffery, R.; Gaughan, C.

2010-01-01

Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus]) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect of the presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]; the agent of chytridiomycosis) on survival probability and population growth rate. Toads that were infected with Bd had lower average annual survival probability than uninfected individuals at sites where Bd was detected, which suggests chytridiomycosis may reduce survival by 31-42% in wild boreal toads. Toads that were negative for Bd at infected sites had survival probabilities comparable to toads at the uninfected site. Evidence that environmental covariates (particularly cold temperatures during the breeding season) influenced toad survival was weak. The number of individuals in diseased populations declined by 5-7%/year over the 6 years of the study, whereas the uninfected population had comparatively stable population growth. Our data suggest that the presence of Bd in these toad populations is not causing rapid population declines. Rather, chytridiomycosis appears to be functioning as a low-level, chronic disease whereby some infected individuals survive but the overall population effects are still negative. Our results show that some amphibian populations may be coexisting with Bd and highlight the importance of quantitative assessments of survival in diseased animal populations. Journal compilation. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Impact parameter dependence of inner-shell ionization probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cocke, C.L.

1974-01-01

The probability for ionization of an inner shell of a target atom by a heavy charged projectile is a sensitive function of the impact parameter characterizing the collision. This probability can be measured experimentally by detecting the x-ray resulting from radiative filling of the inner shell in coincidence with the projectile scattered at a determined angle, and by using the scattering angle to deduce the impact parameter. It is conjectured that the functional dependence of the ionization probability may be a more sensitive probe of the ionization mechanism than is a total cross section measurement. Experimental results for the K-shell ionization of both solid and gas targets by oxygen, carbon and fluorine projectiles in the MeV/amu energy range will be presented, and their use in illuminating the inelastic collision process discussed

Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

Estimating Probability of Default on Peer to Peer Market – Survival Analysis Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đurović Andrija

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Arguably a cornerstone of credit risk modelling is the probability of default. This article aims is to search for the evidence of relationship between loan characteristics and probability of default on peer-to-peer (P2P market. In line with that, two loan characteristics are analysed: 1 loan term length and 2 loan purpose. The analysis is conducted using survival analysis approach within the vintage framework. Firstly, 12 months probability of default through the cycle is used to compare riskiness of analysed loan characteristics. Secondly, log-rank test is employed in order to compare complete survival period of cohorts. Findings of the paper suggest that there is clear evidence of relationship between analysed loan characteristics and probability of default. Longer term loans are more risky than the shorter term ones and the least risky loans are those used for credit card payoff.

Passage and survival probabilities of juvenile Chinook salmon at Cougar Dam, Oregon, 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Beeman, John W.; Evans, Scott D.; Haner, Philip V.; Hansel, Hal C.; Hansen, Amy C.; Smith, Collin D.; Sprando, Jamie M.

2014-01-01

This report describes studies of juvenile-salmon dam passage and apparent survival at Cougar Dam, Oregon, during two operating conditions in 2012. Cougar Dam is a 158-meter tall rock-fill dam used primarily for flood control, and passes water through a temperature control tower to either a powerhouse penstock or to a regulating outlet (RO). The temperature control tower has moveable weir gates to enable water of different elevations and temperatures to be drawn through the dam to control water temperatures downstream. A series of studies of downstream dam passage of juvenile salmonids were begun after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined that Cougar Dam was impacting the viability of anadromous fish stocks. The primary objectives of the studies described in this report were to estimate the route-specific fish passage probabilities at the dam and to estimate the survival probabilities of fish passing through the RO. The first set of dam operating conditions, studied in November, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,589 feet, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the weir gates, (3) most water routed through the turbines during the day and through the RO during the night, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 1.2 feet during the day and 3.2 feet during the night. The second set of dam operating conditions, studied in December, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,507 ft, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the RO bypass, (3) all water passing through the RO, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 7.3 feet during the day and 7.5 feet during the night. The studies were based on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) surgically implanted with radio transmitters and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. Inferences about general dam passage percentage and timing of volitional migrants were based on surface-acclimated fish released in the reservoir. Dam passage and apparent

Survival probabilities for branching Brownian motion with absorption

OpenAIRE

Harris, John; Harris, Simon

2007-01-01

We study a branching Brownian motion (BBM) with absorption, in which particles move as Brownian motions with drift $-\\rho$, undergo dyadic branching at rate $\\beta>0$, and are killed on hitting the origin. In the case $\\rho>\\sqrt{2\\beta}$ the extinction time for this process, $\\zeta$, is known to be finite almost surely. The main result of this article is a large-time asymptotic formula for the survival probability $P^x(\\zeta>t)$ in the case $\\rho>\\sqrt{2\\beta}$, where $P^x$ is...

Sensitivity of probability-of-failure estimates with respect to probability of detection curve parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garza, J. [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States); Millwater, H., E-mail: harry.millwater@utsa.edu [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States)

2012-04-15

A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.

Sensitivity of probability-of-failure estimates with respect to probability of detection curve parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garza, J.; Millwater, H.

2012-01-01

A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. ►The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. ► The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.

Fusion probability and survivability in estimates of heaviest nuclei production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sagaidak Roman N.

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Production of the heavy and heaviest nuclei (from Po to the region of superheavy elements close to Z=114 and N=184 in fusion-evaporation reactions induced by heavy ions has been considered in a systematic way within the framework of the barrier-passing model coupled with the statistical model (SM of de-excitation of a compound nucleus (CN. Excitation functions for fission and evaporation residues (ER measured in very asymmetric combinations can be described rather well. One can scale and fix macroscopic (liquid-drop fission barriers for nuclei involved in the calculation of survivability with SM. In less asymmetric combinations, effects of fusion suppression caused by quasi-fission (QF are starting to appear in the entrance channel of reactions. QF effects could be semi-empirically taken into account using fusion probabilities deduced as the ratio of measured ER cross sections to the ones obtained in the assumption of absence of the fusion suppression in corresponding reactions. SM parameters (fission barriers obtained at the analysis of a very asymmetric combination leading to the production of (nearly the same CN should be used for this evaluation.

Effect of drift on the temporal asymptotic form of the particle survival probability in media with absorbing traps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arkhincheev, V. E.

2017-01-01

A new asymptotic form of the particle survival probability in media with absorbing traps has been established. It is shown that this drift mechanism determines a new temporal behavior of the probability of particle survival in media with absorbing traps over long time intervals.

Exact results for survival probability in the multistate Landau-Zener model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkov, M V; Ostrovsky, V N

2004-01-01

An exact formula is derived for survival probability in the multistate Landau-Zener model in the special case where the initially populated state corresponds to the extremal (maximum or minimum) slope of a linear diabatic potential curve. The formula was originally guessed by S Brundobler and V Elzer (1993 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 26 1211) based on numerical calculations. It is a simple generalization of the expression for the probability of diabatic passage in the famous two-state Landau-Zener model. Our result is obtained via analysis and summation of the entire perturbation theory series

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

Science.gov (United States)

Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2010-01-01

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

Estimating reliability of degraded system based on the probability density evolution with multi-parameter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiang Ge

2017-01-01

Full Text Available System degradation was usually caused by multiple-parameter degradation. The assessment result of system reliability by universal generating function was low accurate when compared with the Monte Carlo simulation. And the probability density function of the system output performance cannot be got. So the reliability assessment method based on the probability density evolution with multi-parameter was presented for complexly degraded system. Firstly, the system output function was founded according to the transitive relation between component parameters and the system output performance. Then, the probability density evolution equation based on the probability conservation principle and the system output function was established. Furthermore, probability distribution characteristics of the system output performance was obtained by solving differential equation. Finally, the reliability of the degraded system was estimated. This method did not need to discrete the performance parameters and can establish continuous probability density function of the system output performance with high calculation efficiency and low cost. Numerical example shows that this method is applicable to evaluate the reliability of multi-parameter degraded system.

Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms

Science.gov (United States)

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.

2003-01-01

The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States, where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models, we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.961-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena, Kate, and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal, Erin, and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida, it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support of storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality, indirect mortality, and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms. Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane, or series of smaller hurricanes, could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity, and longer term change possible with global climate change, it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury

Separating the contributions of variability and parameter uncertainty in probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sankararaman, S.; Mahadevan, S.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a computational methodology to quantify the individual contributions of variability and distribution parameter uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in a random variable. Even if the distribution type is assumed to be known, sparse or imprecise data leads to uncertainty about the distribution parameters. If uncertain distribution parameters are represented using probability distributions, then the random variable can be represented using a family of probability distributions. The family of distributions concept has been used to obtain qualitative, graphical inference of the contributions of natural variability and distribution parameter uncertainty. The proposed methodology provides quantitative estimates of the contributions of the two types of uncertainty. Using variance-based global sensitivity analysis, the contributions of variability and distribution parameter uncertainty to the overall uncertainty are computed. The proposed method is developed at two different levels; first, at the level of a variable whose distribution parameters are uncertain, and second, at the level of a model output whose inputs have uncertain distribution parameters

Technical report. The application of probability-generating functions to linear-quadratic radiation survival curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Kendal, W S

2000-04-01

To illustrate how probability-generating functions (PGFs) can be employed to derive a simple probabilistic model for clonogenic survival after exposure to ionizing irradiation. Both repairable and irreparable radiation damage to DNA were assumed to occur by independent (Poisson) processes, at intensities proportional to the irradiation dose. Also, repairable damage was assumed to be either repaired or further (lethally) injured according to a third (Bernoulli) process, with the probability of lethal conversion being directly proportional to dose. Using the algebra of PGFs, these three processes were combined to yield a composite PGF that described the distribution of lethal DNA lesions in irradiated cells. The composite PGF characterized a Poisson distribution with mean, chiD+betaD2, where D was dose and alpha and beta were radiobiological constants. This distribution yielded the conventional linear-quadratic survival equation. To test the composite model, the derived distribution was used to predict the frequencies of multiple chromosomal aberrations in irradiated human lymphocytes. The predictions agreed well with observation. This probabilistic model was consistent with single-hit mechanisms, but it was not consistent with binary misrepair mechanisms. A stochastic model for radiation survival has been constructed from elementary PGFs that exactly yields the linear-quadratic relationship. This approach can be used to investigate other simple probabilistic survival models.

Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

2014-02-01

Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model

The two-parametric scaling and new temporal asymptotic of survival probability of diffusing particle in the medium with traps.

Science.gov (United States)

Arkhincheev, V E

2017-03-01

The new asymptotic behavior of the survival probability of particles in a medium with absorbing traps in an electric field has been established in two ways-by using the scaling approach and by the direct solution of the diffusion equation in the field. It has shown that at long times, this drift mechanism leads to a new temporal behavior of the survival probability of particles in a medium with absorbing traps.

Corticosterone levels predict survival probabilities of Galapagos marine iguanas during El Nino events.

Science.gov (United States)

Romero, L M; Wikelski, M

2001-06-19

Plasma levels of corticosterone are often used as a measure of "stress" in wild animal populations. However, we lack conclusive evidence that different stress levels reflect different survival probabilities between populations. Galápagos marine iguanas offer an ideal test case because island populations are affected differently by recurring El Niño famine events, and population-level survival can be quantified by counting iguanas locally. We surveyed corticosterone levels in six populations during the 1998 El Niño famine and the 1999 La Niña feast period. Iguanas had higher baseline and handling stress-induced corticosterone concentrations during famine than feast conditions. Corticosterone levels differed between islands and predicted survival through an El Niño period. However, among individuals, baseline corticosterone was only elevated when body condition dropped below a critical threshold. Thus, the population-level corticosterone response was variable but nevertheless predicted overall population health. Our results lend support to the use of corticosterone as a rapid quantitative predictor of survival in wild animal populations.

Survival probabilities of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta estimated from capture-mark-recapture data in the Mediterranean Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paolo Casale

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Survival probabilities of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta are estimated for the first time in the Mediterranean by analysing 3254 tagging and 134 re-encounter data from this region. Most of these turtles were juveniles found at sea. Re-encounters were live resightings and dead recoveries and data were analysed with Barker’s model, a modified version of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model which can combine recapture, live resighting and dead recovery data. An annual survival probability of 0.73 (CI 95% = 0.67-0.78; n=3254 was obtained, and should be considered as a conservative estimate due to an unknown, though not negligible, tag loss rate. This study makes a preliminary estimate of the survival probabilities of in-water developmental stages for the Mediterranean population of endangered loggerhead sea turtles and provides the first insights into the magnitude of the suspected human-induced mortality in the region. The model used here for the first time on sea turtles could be used to obtain survival estimates from other data sets with few or no true recaptures but with other types of re-encounter data, which are a common output of tagging programmes involving these wide-ranging animals.

Recruitment in a Colorado population of big brown bats: Breeding probabilities, litter size, and first-year survival

Science.gov (United States)

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Reynolds, C.A.; Bowen, R.A.

2010-01-01

We used markrecapture estimation techniques and radiography to test hypotheses about 3 important aspects of recruitment in big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado: adult breeding probabilities, litter size, and 1st-year survival of young. We marked 2,968 females with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags at multiple sites during 2001-2005 and based our assessments on direct recaptures (breeding probabilities) and passive detection with automated PIT tag readers (1st-year survival). We interpreted our data in relation to hypotheses regarding demographic influences of bat age, roost, and effects of years with unusual environmental conditions: extreme drought (2002) and arrival of a West Nile virus epizootic (2003). Conditional breeding probabilities at 6 roosts sampled in 2002-2005 were estimated as 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.530.73) in 1-year-old females, but were consistently high (95% CI = 0.940.96) and did not vary by roost, year, or prior year breeding status in older adults. Mean litter size was 1.11 (95% CI = 1.051.17), based on examination of 112 pregnant females by radiography. Litter size was not higher in older or larger females and was similar to results of other studies in western North America despite wide variation in latitude. First-year survival was estimated as 0.67 (95% CI = 0.610.73) for weaned females at 5 maternity roosts over 5 consecutive years, was lower than adult survival (0.79; 95% CI = 0.770.81), and varied by roost. Based on model selection criteria, strong evidence exists for complex roost and year effects on 1st-year survival. First-year survival was lowest in bats born during the drought year. Juvenile females that did not return to roosts as 1-year-olds had lower body condition indices in late summer of their natal year than those known to survive. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

Calculation of parameter failure probability of thermodynamic system by response surface and importance sampling method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shang Yanlong; Cai Qi; Chen Lisheng; Zhang Yangwei

2012-01-01

In this paper, the combined method of response surface and importance sampling was applied for calculation of parameter failure probability of the thermodynamic system. The mathematics model was present for the parameter failure of physics process in the thermodynamic system, by which the combination arithmetic model of response surface and importance sampling was established, then the performance degradation model of the components and the simulation process of parameter failure in the physics process of thermodynamic system were also present. The parameter failure probability of the purification water system in nuclear reactor was obtained by the combination method. The results show that the combination method is an effective method for the calculation of the parameter failure probability of the thermodynamic system with high dimensionality and non-linear characteristics, because of the satisfactory precision with less computing time than the direct sampling method and the drawbacks of response surface method. (authors)

Regional probability distribution of the annual reference evapotranspiration and its effective parameters in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Khanmohammadi, Neda; Rezaie, Hossein; Montaseri, Majid; Behmanesh, Javad

2017-10-01

The reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays an important role in water management plans in arid or semi-arid countries such as Iran. For this reason, the regional analysis of this parameter is important. But, ET0 process is affected by several meteorological parameters such as wind speed, solar radiation, temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, the effect of distribution type of effective meteorological variables on ET0 distribution was analyzed. For this purpose, the regional probability distribution of the annual ET0 and its effective parameters were selected. Used data in this research was recorded data at 30 synoptic stations of Iran during 1960-2014. Using the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test and the L-moment method, five common distributions were compared and the best distribution was selected. The results of PPCC test and L-moment diagram indicated that the Pearson type III distribution was the best probability distribution for fitting annual ET0 and its four effective parameters. The results of RMSE showed that the ability of the PPCC test and L-moment method for regional analysis of reference evapotranspiration and its effective parameters was similar. The results also showed that the distribution type of the parameters which affected ET0 values can affect the distribution of reference evapotranspiration.

Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Portnoy, David, E-mail: david.portnoy@jhuapl.edu [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States)

2011-10-01

Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of

Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

2011-01-01

Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of spectra

Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

Science.gov (United States)

Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

2011-10-01

Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the "threat" set of spectra

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments. PMID:29410788

Notes on the Lumped Backward Master Equation for the Neutron Extinction/Survival Probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prinja, Anil K [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-07-02

chains (a fission chain is defined as the initial source neutron and all its subsequent progeny) in which some chains are short lived while others propagate for unusually long times. Under these conditions, fission chains do not overlap strongly and this precludes the cancellation of neutron number fluctuations necessary for the mean to become established as the dominant measure of the neutron population. The fate of individual chains then plays a defining role in the evolution of the neutron population in strongly stochastic systems, and of particular interest and importance in supercritical systems is the extinction probability, defined as the probability that the neutron chain (initiating neutron and its progeny) will be extinguished at a particular time, or its complement, the time-dependent survival probability. The time-asymptotic limit of the latter, the probability of divergence, gives the probability that the neutron population will grow without bound, and is more commonly known as the probability of initiation or just POI. The ability to numerically compute these probabilities, with high accuracy and without overly restricting the underlying physics (e.g., fission neutron multiplicity, reactivity variation) is clearly essential in developing an understanding of the behavior of strongly stochastic systems.

Robust estimation of the expected survival probabilities from high-dimensional Cox models with biomarker-by-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nils Ternès

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Thanks to the advances in genomics and targeted treatments, more and more prediction models based on biomarkers are being developed to predict potential benefit from treatments in a randomized clinical trial. Despite the methodological framework for the development and validation of prediction models in a high-dimensional setting is getting more and more established, no clear guidance exists yet on how to estimate expected survival probabilities in a penalized model with biomarker-by-treatment interactions. Methods Based on a parsimonious biomarker selection in a penalized high-dimensional Cox model (lasso or adaptive lasso, we propose a unified framework to: estimate internally the predictive accuracy metrics of the developed model (using double cross-validation; estimate the individual survival probabilities at a given timepoint; construct confidence intervals thereof (analytical or bootstrap; and visualize them graphically (pointwise or smoothed with spline. We compared these strategies through a simulation study covering scenarios with or without biomarker effects. We applied the strategies to a large randomized phase III clinical trial that evaluated the effect of adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy in 1574 early breast cancer patients, for which the expression of 462 genes was measured. Results In our simulations, penalized regression models using the adaptive lasso estimated the survival probability of new patients with low bias and standard error; bootstrapped confidence intervals had empirical coverage probability close to the nominal level across very different scenarios. The double cross-validation performed on the training data set closely mimicked the predictive accuracy of the selected models in external validation data. We also propose a useful visual representation of the expected survival probabilities using splines. In the breast cancer trial, the adaptive lasso penalty selected a prediction model with 4

Mean-field behavior for the survival probability and the point-to-surface connectivity

CERN Document Server

Sakai, A

2003-01-01

We consider the critical survival probability for oriented percolation and the contact process, and the point-to-surface connectivity for critical percolation. By similarity, let \\rho denote the critical expoents for both quantities. We prove in a unified fashion that, if \\rho exists and if both two-point function and its certain restricted version exhibit the same mean-field behavior, then \\rho=2 for percolation with d>7 and \\rho=1 for the time-oriented models with d>4.

Survival probability of precipitations and rain attenuation in tropical and equatorial regions

Science.gov (United States)

Mohebbi Nia, Masoud; Din, Jafri; Panagopoulos, Athanasios D.; Lam, Hong Yin

2015-08-01

This contribution presents a stochastic model useful for the generation of a long-term tropospheric rain attenuation time series for Earth space or a terrestrial radio link in tropical and equatorial heavy rain regions based on the well-known Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model previously employed in research in the fields of finance and economics. This model assumes typical gamma distribution for rain attenuation in heavy rain climatic regions and utilises the temporal dynamic of precipitation collected in equatorial Johor, Malaysia. Different formations of survival probability are also discussed. Furthermore, the correlation between these probabilities and the Markov process is determined, and information on the variance and autocorrelation function of rain events with respect to the particular characteristics of precipitation in this area is presented. The proposed technique proved to preserve the peculiarities of precipitation for an equatorial region and reproduce fairly good statistics of the rain attenuation correlation function that could help to improve the prediction of dynamic characteristics of rain fade events.

Survival probability of diffusion with trapping in cellular neurobiology

Science.gov (United States)

Holcman, David; Marchewka, Avi; Schuss, Zeev

2005-09-01

The problem of diffusion with absorption and trapping sites arises in the theory of molecular signaling inside and on the membranes of biological cells. In particular, this problem arises in the case of spine-dendrite communication, where the number of calcium ions, modeled as random particles, is regulated across the spine microstructure by pumps, which play the role of killing sites, while the end of the dendritic shaft is an absorbing boundary. We develop a general mathematical framework for diffusion in the presence of absorption and killing sites and apply it to the computation of the time-dependent survival probability of ions. We also compute the ratio of the number of absorbed particles at a specific location to the number of killed particles. We show that the ratio depends on the distribution of killing sites. The biological consequence is that the position of the pumps regulates the fraction of calcium ions that reach the dendrite.

Do ducks and songbirds initiate more nests when the probability of survival is greater?

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Todd A.; Shaffer, Terry L.

2015-01-01

Nesting chronology in grassland birds can vary by species, locality, and year. The date a nest is initiated can influence the subsequent probability of its survival in some grassland bird species. Because predation is the most significant cause of nest loss in grassland birds, we examined the relation between timing of nesting and nest survival. Periods of high nest survival that correspond with the peak of nesting activity might reflect long-term adaptations to specific predation pressures commonly recurring during certain periods of the nesting cycle. We evaluated this theory by comparing timing of nesting with date-specific nest survival rates for several duck and passerine species breeding in north-central North Dakota during 1998–2003. Nest survival decreased seasonally with date for five of the seven species we studied. We found little evidence to support consistent relations between timing of nesting, the number of nest initiations, and nest survival for any species we studied, suggesting that factors other than nest predation may better explain nesting chronology for these species. The apparent mismatch between date-specific patterns of nest survival and nest initiation underscores uncertainty about the process of avian nest site selection driven mainly by predation. Although timing of nesting differed among species, the general nesting period was fairly predictable across all years of study, suggesting the potential for research activities or management actions to be timed to take advantage of known periods when nests are active (or inactive). However, our results do not support the notion that biologists can take advantage of periods when many nests are active and survival is also high.

Survival probability in small angle scattering of low energy alkali ions from alkali covered metal surfaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neskovic, N.; Ciric, D.; Perovic, B.

1982-01-01

The survival probability in small angle scattering of low energy alkali ions from alkali covered metal surfaces is considered. The model is based on the momentum approximation. The projectiles are K + ions and the target is the (001)Ni+K surface. The incident energy is 100 eV and the incident angle 5 0 . The interaction potential of the projectile and the target consists of the Born-Mayer, the dipole and the image charge potentials. The transition probability function corresponds to the resonant electron transition to the 4s projectile energy level. (orig.)

Compensatory effects of recruitment and survival when amphibian populations are perturbed by disease

Science.gov (United States)

Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Pilliod, D.S.

2011-01-01

The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. We applied the reverse-time model of Pradel in Program mark to 6years of capture-recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. High recruitment rates (0??41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0??51-0??54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0??75-0??78) but lower recruitment rates (0??25). Synthesis and applications.We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of

Inferential Statistics from Black Hispanic Breast Cancer Survival Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hafiz M. R. Khan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we test the statistical probability models for breast cancer survival data for race and ethnicity. Data was collected from breast cancer patients diagnosed in United States during the years 1973–2009. We selected a stratified random sample of Black Hispanic female patients from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER database to derive the statistical probability models. We used three common model building criteria which include Akaike Information Criteria (AIC, Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC, and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC to measure the goodness of fit tests and it was found that Black Hispanic female patients survival data better fit the exponentiated exponential probability model. A novel Bayesian method was used to derive the posterior density function for the model parameters as well as to derive the predictive inference for future response. We specifically focused on Black Hispanic race. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method was used for obtaining the summary results of posterior parameters. Additionally, we reported predictive intervals for future survival times. These findings would be of great significance in treatment planning and healthcare resource allocation.

Probability dynamics of a repopulating tumor in case of fractionated external radiotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Stavreva, Nadia; Stavrev, Pavel; Fallone, B Gino

2009-12-01

In this work two analytical methods are developed for computing the probability distribution of the number of surviving cells of a repopulating tumor during a fractionated external radio-treatment. Both methods are developed for the case of pure birth processes. They both allow the description of the tumor dynamics in case of cell radiosensitivity changing in time and for treatment schedules with variable dose per fraction and variable time intervals between fractions. The first method is based on a direct solution of the set of differential equations describing the tumor dynamics. The second method is based on the works of Hanin et al. [Hanin LG, Zaider M, Yakovlev AY. Distribution of the number of clonogens surviving fractionated radiotherapy: a long-standing problem revisited. Int J Radiat Biol 2001;77:205-13; Hanin LG. Iterated birth and death process as a model of radiation cell survival. Math Biosci 2001;169:89-107; Hanin LG. A stochastic model of tumor response to fractionated radiation: limit theorems and rate of convergence. Math Biosci 2004;191:1-17], where probability generating functions are used. In addition a Monte Carlo algorithm for simulating the probability distributions is developed for the same treatment conditions as for the analytical methods. The probability distributions predicted by the three methods are compared graphically for a certain set of values of the model parameters and an excellent agreement is found to exist between all three results, thus proving the correct implementation of the methods. However, numerical difficulties have been encountered with both analytical methods depending on the values of the model parameters. Therefore, the Poisson approximation is also studied and it is compared to the exact methods for several different combinations of the model parameter values. It is concluded that the Poisson approximation works sufficiently well only for slowly repopulating tumors and a low cell survival probability and that it

Cluster geometry and survival probability in systems driven by reaction-diffusion dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Windus, Alastair; Jensen, Henrik J

2008-01-01

We consider a reaction-diffusion model incorporating the reactions A→φ, A→2A and 2A→3A. Depending on the relative rates for sexual and asexual reproduction of the quantity A, the model exhibits either a continuous or first-order absorbing phase transition to an extinct state. A tricritical point separates the two phase lines. While we comment on this critical behaviour, the main focus of the paper is on the geometry of the population clusters that form. We observe the different cluster structures that arise at criticality for the three different types of critical behaviour and show that there exists a linear relationship for the survival probability against initial cluster size at the tricritical point only.

Parameter resolution in two models for cell survival after radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Cera, E.; Andreasi Bassi, F.; Arcovito, G.

1989-01-01

The resolvability of model parameters for the linear-quadratic and the repair-misrepair models for cell survival after radiation has been studied by Monte Carlo simulations as a function of the number of experimental data points collected in a given dose range and the experimental error. Statistical analysis of the results reveals the range of experimental conditions under which the model parameters can be resolved with sufficient accuracy, and points out some differences in the operational aspects of the two models. (orig.)

Cluster geometry and survival probability in systems driven by reaction-diffusion dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Windus, Alastair; Jensen, Henrik J [The Institute for Mathematical Sciences, 53 Prince' s Gate, South Kensington, London SW7 2PG (United Kingdom)], E-mail: h.jensen@imperial.ac.uk

2008-11-15

We consider a reaction-diffusion model incorporating the reactions A{yields}{phi}, A{yields}2A and 2A{yields}3A. Depending on the relative rates for sexual and asexual reproduction of the quantity A, the model exhibits either a continuous or first-order absorbing phase transition to an extinct state. A tricritical point separates the two phase lines. While we comment on this critical behaviour, the main focus of the paper is on the geometry of the population clusters that form. We observe the different cluster structures that arise at criticality for the three different types of critical behaviour and show that there exists a linear relationship for the survival probability against initial cluster size at the tricritical point only.

Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

2002-02-01

This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Srikanta

2002-02-01

This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available

Corticosterone levels predict survival probabilities of Galápagos marine iguanas during El Niño events

Science.gov (United States)

Romero, L. Michael; Wikelski, Martin

2001-01-01

Plasma levels of corticosterone are often used as a measure of “stress” in wild animal populations. However, we lack conclusive evidence that different stress levels reflect different survival probabilities between populations. Galápagos marine iguanas offer an ideal test case because island populations are affected differently by recurring El Niño famine events, and population-level survival can be quantified by counting iguanas locally. We surveyed corticosterone levels in six populations during the 1998 El Niño famine and the 1999 La Niña feast period. Iguanas had higher baseline and handling stress-induced corticosterone concentrations during famine than feast conditions. Corticosterone levels differed between islands and predicted survival through an El Niño period. However, among individuals, baseline corticosterone was only elevated when body condition dropped below a critical threshold. Thus, the population-level corticosterone response was variable but nevertheless predicted overall population health. Our results lend support to the use of corticosterone as a rapid quantitative predictor of survival in wild animal populations. PMID:11416210

Rapidity gap survival in central exclusive diffraction: Dynamical mechanisms and uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strikman, Mark; Weiss, Christian

2009-01-01

We summarize our understanding of the dynamical mechanisms governing rapidity gap survival in central exclusive diffraction, pp -> p + H + p (H = high-mass system), and discuss the uncertainties in present estimates of the survival probability. The main suppression of diffractive scattering is due to inelastic soft spectator interactions at small pp impact parameters and can be described in a mean-field approximation (independent hard and soft interactions). Moderate extra suppression results from fluctuations of the partonic configurations of the colliding protons. At LHC energies absorptive interactions of hard spectator partons associated with the gg -> H process reach the black-disk regime and cause substantial additional suppression, pushing the survival probability below 0.01.

Focusing on a Probability Element: Parameter Selection of Message Importance Measure in Big Data

OpenAIRE

She, Rui; Liu, Shanyun; Dong, Yunquan; Fan, Pingyi

2017-01-01

Message importance measure (MIM) is applicable to characterize the importance of information in the scenario of big data, similar to entropy in information theory. In fact, MIM with a variable parameter can make an effect on the characterization of distribution. Furthermore, by choosing an appropriate parameter of MIM,it is possible to emphasize the message importance of a certain probability element in a distribution. Therefore, parametric MIM can play a vital role in anomaly detection of bi...

Probability of extreme interference levels computed from reliability approaches: application to transmission lines with uncertain parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larbi, M.; Besnier, P.; Pecqueux, B.

2014-01-01

This paper deals with the risk analysis of an EMC default using a statistical approach. It is based on reliability methods from probabilistic engineering mechanics. A computation of probability of failure (i.e. probability of exceeding a threshold) of an induced current by crosstalk is established by taking into account uncertainties on input parameters influencing levels of interference in the context of transmission lines. The study has allowed us to evaluate the probability of failure of the induced current by using reliability methods having a relative low computational cost compared to Monte Carlo simulation. (authors)

Survival probability for diffractive dijet production in p anti p collisions from next-to-leading order calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klasen, M.; Kramer, G.

2009-08-01

We perform next-to-leading order calculations of the single-diffractive and non-diffractive cross sections for dijet production in proton-antiproton collisions at the Tevatron. By comparing their ratio to the data published by the CDF collaboration for two different center-of-mass energies, we deduce the rapidity-gap survival probability as a function of the momentum fraction of the parton in the antiproton. Assuming Regge factorization, this probability can be interpreted as a suppression factor for the diffractive structure function measured in deep-inelastic scattering at HERA. In contrast to the observations for photoproduction, the suppression factor in protonantiproton collisions depends on the momentum fraction of the parton in the Pomeron even at next-to-leading order. (orig.)

Disparities in breast cancer tumor characteristics, treatment, time to treatment, and survival probability among African American and white women.

Science.gov (United States)

Foy, Kevin Chu; Fisher, James L; Lustberg, Maryam B; Gray, Darrell M; DeGraffinreid, Cecilia R; Paskett, Electra D

2018-01-01

African American (AA) women have a 42% higher breast cancer death rate compared to white women despite recent advancements in management of the disease. We examined racial differences in clinical and tumor characteristics, treatment and survival in patients diagnosed with breast cancer between 2005 and 2014 at a single institution, the James Cancer Hospital, and who were included in the Arthur G. James Cancer Hospital and Richard J. Solove Research Institute Cancer Registry in Columbus OH. Statistical analyses included likelihood ratio chi-square tests for differences in proportions, as well as univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions to examine associations between race and overall and progression-free survival probabilities. AA women made up 10.2% (469 of 4593) the sample. Average time to onset of treatment after diagnosis was almost two times longer in AA women compared to white women (62.0 days vs 35.5 days, p  triple negative and late stage breast cancer, and were less likely to receive surgery, especially mastectomy and reconstruction following mastectomy. After adjustment for confounding factors (age, grade, and surgery), overall survival probability was significantly associated with race (HR = 1.33; 95% CI 1.03-1.72). These findings highlight the need for efforts focused on screening and receipt of prompt treatment among AA women diagnosed with breast cancer.

Experimental impact-parameter--dependent probabilities for K-shell vacancy production by fast heavy-ion projectiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Randall, R.R.; Bednar, J.A.; Curnutte, B.; Cocke, C.L.

1976-01-01

The impact-parameter dependence of the probability for production of target K x rays has been measured for oxygen projectiles on copper and for carbon and fluorine projectiles on argon at scaled velocities near 0.5. The O-on-Cu data were taken for 1.56-, 1.88-, and 2.69-MeV/amu O beams incident upon thin Cu foils. A thin Ar-gas target was used for 1.56-MeV/amu C and F beams, permitting measurements to be made for charge-pure C +4 , C +6 , F +9 and F +5 projectiles. Ar and Cu K x rays were observed with a Si(Li) detector and scattered projectiles with a collimated surface-barrier detector. Comparison of the shapes of the measured K-vacancy--production probability curves with predictions of the semiclassical Coulomb approximation (SCA) shows adequate agreement for the O-on-Cu system. For the higher ratio of projectile-to-target nuclear charge (Z 1 /Z 2 ) characterizing the C-on-Ar and F-on-Ar systems, the SCA predictions are entirely inadequate in describing the observed impact-parameter dependence. In particular, they cannot account for large probabilities found at large impact parameters. Furthermore, the dependence of the shapes on the projectile charge state is found to become pronounced at larger Z 1 /Z 2 . Attempts to account for this behavior in terms of alternative vacancy-production processes are discussed

Prognostic value of pre-treatment DCE-MRI parameters in predicting disease free and overall survival for breast cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pickles, Martin D.; Manton, David J.; Lowry, Martin; Turnbull, Lindsay W.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether dynamic contrast enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) data, both pharmacokinetic and empirical, can predict, prior to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, which patients are likely to have a shorter disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) interval following surgery. Traditional prognostic parameters were also included in the survival analysis. Consequently, a comparison of the prognostic value could be made between all the parameters studied. MR examinations were conducted on a 1.5 T system in 68 patients prior to the initiation of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. DCE-MRI consisted of a fast spoiled gradient echo sequence acquired over 35 phases with a mean temporal resolution of 11.3 s. Both pharmacokinetic and empirical parameters were derived from the DCE-MRI data. Kaplan-Meier survival plots were generated for each parameter and group comparisons were made utilising logrank tests. The results from the 54 patients entered into the univariate survival analysis demonstrated that traditional prognostic parameters (tumour grade, hormonal status and size), empirical parameters (maximum enhancement index, enhancement index at 30 s, area under the curve and initial slope) and adjuvant therapies demonstrated significant differences in survival intervals. Further multivariate Cox regression survival analysis revealed that empirical enhancement parameters contributed the greatest prediction of both DFS and OS in the resulting models. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that in patients who exhibit high levels of perfusion and vessel permeability pre-treatment, evidenced by elevated empirical DCE-MRI parameters, a significantly lower disease free survival and overall survival can be expected.

Prognostic value of pre-treatment DCE-MRI parameters in predicting disease free and overall survival for breast cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pickles, Martin D. [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: m.pickles@hull.ac.uk; Manton, David J. [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: d.j.manton@hull.ac.uk; Lowry, Martin [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: m.lowry@hull.ac.uk; Turnbull, Lindsay W. [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: l.w.turnbull@hull.ac.uk

2009-09-15

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether dynamic contrast enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) data, both pharmacokinetic and empirical, can predict, prior to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, which patients are likely to have a shorter disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) interval following surgery. Traditional prognostic parameters were also included in the survival analysis. Consequently, a comparison of the prognostic value could be made between all the parameters studied. MR examinations were conducted on a 1.5 T system in 68 patients prior to the initiation of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. DCE-MRI consisted of a fast spoiled gradient echo sequence acquired over 35 phases with a mean temporal resolution of 11.3 s. Both pharmacokinetic and empirical parameters were derived from the DCE-MRI data. Kaplan-Meier survival plots were generated for each parameter and group comparisons were made utilising logrank tests. The results from the 54 patients entered into the univariate survival analysis demonstrated that traditional prognostic parameters (tumour grade, hormonal status and size), empirical parameters (maximum enhancement index, enhancement index at 30 s, area under the curve and initial slope) and adjuvant therapies demonstrated significant differences in survival intervals. Further multivariate Cox regression survival analysis revealed that empirical enhancement parameters contributed the greatest prediction of both DFS and OS in the resulting models. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that in patients who exhibit high levels of perfusion and vessel permeability pre-treatment, evidenced by elevated empirical DCE-MRI parameters, a significantly lower disease free survival and overall survival can be expected.

Parameter Analysis of the VPIN (Volume synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) Metric

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Jung Heon; Wu, Kesheng; Simon, Horst D.

2014-03-01

VPIN (Volume synchronized Probability of Informed trading) is a leading indicator of liquidity-induced volatility. It is best known for having produced a signal more than hours before the Flash Crash of 2010. On that day, the market saw the biggest one-day point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which culminated to the market value of $1 trillion disappearing, but only to recover those losses twenty minutes later (Lauricella 2010). The computation of VPIN requires the user to set up a handful of free parameters. The values of these parameters significantly affect the effectiveness of VPIN as measured by the false positive rate (FPR). An earlier publication reported that a brute-force search of simple parameter combinations yielded a number of parameter combinations with FPR of 7%. This work is a systematic attempt to find an optimal parameter set using an optimization package, NOMAD (Nonlinear Optimization by Mesh Adaptive Direct Search) by Audet, le digabel, and tribes (2009) and le digabel (2011). We have implemented a number of techniques to reduce the computation time with NOMAD. Tests show that we can reduce the FPR to only 2%. To better understand the parameter choices, we have conducted a series of sensitivity analysis via uncertainty quantification on the parameter spaces using UQTK (Uncertainty Quantification Toolkit). Results have shown dominance of 2 parameters in the computation of FPR. Using the outputs from NOMAD optimization and sensitivity analysis, We recommend A range of values for each of the free parameters that perform well on a large set of futures trading records.

Probability of detection as a function of multiple influencing parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pavlovic, Mato

2014-10-15

Non-destructive testing is subject to measurement uncertainties. In safety critical applications the reliability assessment of its capability to detect flaws is therefore necessary. In most applications, the flaw size is the single most important parameter that influences the probability of detection (POD) of the flaw. That is why the POD is typically calculated and expressed as a function of the flaw size. The capability of the inspection system to detect flaws is established by comparing the size of reliably detected flaw with the size of the flaw that is critical for the structural integrity. Applications where several factors have an important influence on the POD are investigated in this dissertation. To devise a reliable estimation of the NDT system capability it is necessary to express the POD as a function of all these factors. A multi-parameter POD model is developed. It enables POD to be calculated and expressed as a function of several influencing parameters. The model was tested on the data from the ultrasonic inspection of copper and cast iron components with artificial flaws. Also, a technique to spatially present POD data called the volume POD is developed. The fusion of the POD data coming from multiple inspections of the same component with different sensors is performed to reach the overall POD of the inspection system.

Probability of detection as a function of multiple influencing parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pavlovic, Mato

2014-01-01

Non-destructive testing is subject to measurement uncertainties. In safety critical applications the reliability assessment of its capability to detect flaws is therefore necessary. In most applications, the flaw size is the single most important parameter that influences the probability of detection (POD) of the flaw. That is why the POD is typically calculated and expressed as a function of the flaw size. The capability of the inspection system to detect flaws is established by comparing the size of reliably detected flaw with the size of the flaw that is critical for the structural integrity. Applications where several factors have an important influence on the POD are investigated in this dissertation. To devise a reliable estimation of the NDT system capability it is necessary to express the POD as a function of all these factors. A multi-parameter POD model is developed. It enables POD to be calculated and expressed as a function of several influencing parameters. The model was tested on the data from the ultrasonic inspection of copper and cast iron components with artificial flaws. Also, a technique to spatially present POD data called the volume POD is developed. The fusion of the POD data coming from multiple inspections of the same component with different sensors is performed to reach the overall POD of the inspection system.

Volumetric and MGMT parameters in glioblastoma patients: Survival analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iliadis, Georgios; Kotoula, Vassiliki; Chatzisotiriou, Athanasios; Televantou, Despina; Eleftheraki, Anastasia G; Lambaki, Sofia; Misailidou, Despina; Selviaridis, Panagiotis; Fountzilas, George

2012-01-01

In this study several tumor-related volumes were assessed by means of a computer-based application and a survival analysis was conducted to evaluate the prognostic significance of pre- and postoperative volumetric data in patients harboring glioblastomas. In addition, MGMT (O 6 -methylguanine methyltransferase) related parameters were compared with those of volumetry in order to observe possible relevance of this molecule in tumor development. We prospectively analyzed 65 patients suffering from glioblastoma (GBM) who underwent radiotherapy with concomitant adjuvant temozolomide. For the purpose of volumetry T1 and T2-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) sequences were used, acquired both pre- and postoperatively (pre-radiochemotherapy). The volumes measured on preoperative MR images were necrosis, enhancing tumor and edema (including the tumor) and on postoperative ones, net-enhancing tumor. Age, sex, performance status (PS) and type of operation were also included in the multivariate analysis. MGMT was assessed for promoter methylation with Multiplex Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification (MLPA), for RNA expression with real time PCR, and for protein expression with immunohistochemistry in a total of 44 cases with available histologic material. In the multivariate analysis a negative impact was shown for pre-radiochemotherapy net-enhancing tumor on the overall survival (OS) (p = 0.023) and for preoperative necrosis on progression-free survival (PFS) (p = 0.030). Furthermore, the multivariate analysis confirmed the importance of PS in PFS and OS of patients. MGMT promoter methylation was observed in 13/23 (43.5%) evaluable tumors; complete methylation was observed in 3/13 methylated tumors only. High rate of MGMT protein positivity (> 20% positive neoplastic nuclei) was inversely associated with pre-operative tumor necrosis (p = 0.021). Our findings implicate that volumetric parameters may have a significant role in the prognosis of GBM patients. Furthermore

On the probability of cure for heavy-ion radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanin, Leonid; Zaider, Marco

2014-01-01

The probability of a cure in radiation therapy (RT)—viewed as the probability of eventual extinction of all cancer cells—is unobservable, and the only way to compute it is through modeling the dynamics of cancer cell population during and post-treatment. The conundrum at the heart of biophysical models aimed at such prospective calculations is the absence of information on the initial size of the subpopulation of clonogenic cancer cells (also called stem-like cancer cells), that largely determines the outcome of RT, both in an individual and population settings. Other relevant parameters (e.g. potential doubling time, cell loss factor and survival probability as a function of dose) are, at least in principle, amenable to empirical determination. In this article we demonstrate that, for heavy-ion RT, microdosimetric considerations (justifiably ignored in conventional RT) combined with an expression for the clone extinction probability obtained from a mechanistic model of radiation cell survival lead to useful upper bounds on the size of the pre-treatment population of clonogenic cancer cells as well as upper and lower bounds on the cure probability. The main practical impact of these limiting values is the ability to make predictions about the probability of a cure for a given population of patients treated to newer, still unexplored treatment modalities from the empirically determined probability of a cure for the same or similar population resulting from conventional low linear energy transfer (typically photon/electron) RT. We also propose that the current trend to deliver a lower total dose in a smaller number of fractions with larger-than-conventional doses per fraction has physical limits that must be understood before embarking on a particular treatment schedule. (paper)

Estimation of failure probability of the end induced current depending on uncertain parameters of a transmission line

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larbi, M.; Besnier, P.; Pecqueux, B.

2014-01-01

This paper treats about the risk analysis of an EMC default using a statistical approach based on reliability methods. A probability of failure (i.e. probability of exceeding a threshold) of an induced current by crosstalk is computed by taking into account uncertainties on input parameters influencing extreme levels of interference in the context of transmission lines. Results are compared to Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). (authors)

Impact-parameter dependence of the total probability for electromagnetic electron-positron pair production in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hencken, K.; Trautmann, D.; Baur, G.

1995-01-01

We calculate the impact-parameter-dependent total probability P total (b) for the electromagnetic production of electron-positron pairs in relativistic heavy-ion collisions in lowest order. We study expecially impact parameters smaller than the Compton wavelength of the electron, where the equivalent-photon approximation cannot be used. Calculations with and without a form factor for the heavy ions are done; the influence is found to be small. The lowest-order results are found to violate unitarity and are used for the calculation of multiple-pair production probabilities with the help of the approximate Poisson distribution already found in earlier publications

Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt: Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, J.D.

1984-01-01

The Columbia River Basalts Underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett flow interior. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. 210 refs., 12 figs., 5 tabs

Estimating population parameters of longsnout seahorses, Hippocampus reidi (Teleostei: Syngnathidae through mark-recapture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandre C. Siqueira

2017-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Estimating population parameters is essential for understanding the ecology of species, which ultimately helps to assess their conservation status. The seahorse Hippocampus reidi is directly exposed to anthropogenic threats along the Brazilian coast, but the species still figures as Data Deficient (DD at IUCN’s Red List. To provide better information on the ecology of this species, we studied how population parameters vary over time in a natural subtropical environment. By combing mark-recapture models for open and closed populations, we estimated abundance, survival rate, emigration probability, and capture probability. We marked 111 individuals, which showed a 1:1 sex ratio, and an average size of 10.5 cm. The population showed high survival rate, low temporary emigration probability and variable capture probability and abundance. Our models considering relevant biological criteria illuminate the relatively poorly known population ecology and life history of seahorses. It is our hope that this study inspires the use of mark-recapture methods in other populations of H. reidi in a collective effort to properly assess their conservation status.

Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

1984-11-01

The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables

Rapidity gap survival in the black-disk regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leonid Frankfurt; Charles Hyde; Mark Strikman; Christian Weiss

2007-01-01

We summarize how the approach to the black-disk regime (BDR) of strong interactions at TeV energies influences rapidity gap survival in exclusive hard diffraction pp -> p + H + p (H = dijet, Qbar Q, Higgs). Employing a recently developed partonic description of such processes, we discuss (a) the suppression of diffraction at small impact parameters by soft spectator interactions in the BDR; (b) further suppression by inelastic interactions of hard spectator partons in the BDR; (c) correlations between hard and soft interactions. Hard spectator interactions substantially reduce the rapidity gap survival probability at LHC energies compared to previously reported estimates

When celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Pardo, Deborah; Weimerskirch, Henri; Barbraud, Christophe

2013-01-01

In long-lived species only a fraction of a population breeds at a given time. Non-breeders can represent more than half of adult individuals, calling in doubt the relevance of estimating demographic parameters from the sole breeders. Here we demonstrate the importance of considering observable non-breeders to estimate reliable demographic traits: survival, return, breeding, hatching and fledging probabilities. We study the long-lived quasi-biennial breeding wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans). In this species, the breeding cycle lasts almost a year and birds that succeed a given year tend to skip the next breeding occasion while birds that fail tend to breed again the following year. Most non-breeders remain unobservable at sea, but still a substantial number of observable non-breeders (ONB) was identified on breeding sites. Using multi-state capture-mark-recapture analyses, we used several measures to compare the performance of demographic estimates between models incorporating or ignoring ONB: bias (difference in mean), precision (difference is standard deviation) and accuracy (both differences in mean and standard deviation). Our results highlight that ignoring ONB leads to bias and loss of accuracy on breeding probability and survival estimates. These effects are even stronger when studied in an age-dependent framework. Biases on breeding probabilities and survival increased with age leading to overestimation of survival at old age and thus actuarial senescence and underestimation of reproductive senescence. We believe our study sheds new light on the difficulties of estimating demographic parameters in species/taxa where a significant part of the population does not breed every year. Taking into account ONB appeared important to improve demographic parameter estimates, models of population dynamics and evolutionary conclusions regarding senescence within and across taxa.

Nomogram including pretherapeutic parameters for prediction of survival after SIRT of hepatic metastases from colorectal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fendler, Wolfgang Peter; Ilhan, Harun; Paprottka, Philipp M.; Jakobs, Tobias F.; Heinemann, Volker; Bartenstein, Peter; Haug, Alexander R.; Khalaf, Feras; Ezziddin, Samer; Hacker, Marcus

2015-01-01

Pre-therapeutic prediction of outcome is important for clinicians and patients in determining whether selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) is indicated for hepatic metastases of colorectal cancer (CRC). Pre-therapeutic characteristics of 100 patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) treated by radioembolization were analyzed to develop a nomogram for predicting survival. Prognostic factors were selected by univariate Cox regression analysis and subsequent tested by multivariate analysis for predicting patient survival. The nomogram was validated with reference to an external patient cohort (n = 25) from the Bonn University Department of Nuclear Medicine. Of the 13 parameters tested, four were independently associated with reduced patient survival in multivariate analysis. These parameters included no liver surgery before SIRT (HR:1.81, p = 0.014), CEA serum level ≥ 150 ng/ml (HR:2.08, p = 0.001), transaminase toxicity level ≥2.5 x upper limit of normal (HR:2.82, p = 0.001), and summed computed tomography (CT) size of the largest two liver lesions ≥10 cm (HR:2.31, p < 0.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for our prediction model was 0.83 for the external patient cohort, indicating superior performance of our multivariate model compared to a model ignoring covariates. The nomogram developed in our study entailing four pre-therapeutic parameters gives good prediction of patient survival post SIRT. (orig.)

Nomogram including pretherapeutic parameters for prediction of survival after SIRT of hepatic metastases from colorectal cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fendler, Wolfgang Peter [Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany); Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Nuklearmedizin, Munich (Germany); Ilhan, Harun [Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany); Paprottka, Philipp M. [Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Department of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany); Jakobs, Tobias F. [Hospital Barmherzige Brueder, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Munich (Germany); Heinemann, Volker [Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Department of Internal Medicine III, Munich (Germany); Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Munich (Germany); Bartenstein, Peter; Haug, Alexander R. [Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany); Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Munich (Germany); Khalaf, Feras [University Hospital Bonn, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Bonn (Germany); Ezziddin, Samer [Saarland University Medical Center, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Homburg (Germany); Hacker, Marcus [Vienna General Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Vienna (Austria)

2015-09-15

Pre-therapeutic prediction of outcome is important for clinicians and patients in determining whether selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) is indicated for hepatic metastases of colorectal cancer (CRC). Pre-therapeutic characteristics of 100 patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) treated by radioembolization were analyzed to develop a nomogram for predicting survival. Prognostic factors were selected by univariate Cox regression analysis and subsequent tested by multivariate analysis for predicting patient survival. The nomogram was validated with reference to an external patient cohort (n = 25) from the Bonn University Department of Nuclear Medicine. Of the 13 parameters tested, four were independently associated with reduced patient survival in multivariate analysis. These parameters included no liver surgery before SIRT (HR:1.81, p = 0.014), CEA serum level ≥ 150 ng/ml (HR:2.08, p = 0.001), transaminase toxicity level ≥2.5 x upper limit of normal (HR:2.82, p = 0.001), and summed computed tomography (CT) size of the largest two liver lesions ≥10 cm (HR:2.31, p < 0.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for our prediction model was 0.83 for the external patient cohort, indicating superior performance of our multivariate model compared to a model ignoring covariates. The nomogram developed in our study entailing four pre-therapeutic parameters gives good prediction of patient survival post SIRT. (orig.)

Survival probabilities of first and second clutches of blackbird (Turdus merula in an urban environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kurucz Kornelia

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The breeding success of blackbirds was investigated in April and June 2008 and 2009 in the Botanical Garden of the University of Pecs, with a total of 50 artificial nests at each of the four sessions (with 1 quail egg and 1 plasticine egg placed in every nest. In all four study periods of the two years, 2 nests (4% were destroyed by predators. Six nests (12%, of the nests were not discovered in either of the cases. The survival probability of artificial nests was greater in April than in June (both years, but the difference was significant only in 2008. Nests placed into a curtain of ivy (Hedera helix on a wall were located higher up than those in bushes, yet their predation rates were quite similar. The predation values of quail vs. plasticine eggs did not differ in 2008. In the year 2009, however, significantly more quail eggs were discovered (mostly removed, than plasticine eggs. Marks that were left on plasticine eggs originated mostly from small mammals and small-bodied birds, but the disappearance of a large number of quail and plasticine eggs was probably caused by larger birds, primarily jays.

The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia basin. Volume 8: A new model for estimating survival probabilities and residualization from a release-recapture study of fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) smolts in the Snake River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowther, A.B.; Skalski, J.

1997-09-01

Standard release-recapture analysis using Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models to estimate survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities for Snake river fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) ignore the possibility of individual fish residualizing and completing their migration in the year following tagging. These models do not utilize available capture history data from this second year and, thus, produce negatively biased estimates of survival probabilities. A new multinomial likelihood model was developed that results in biologically relevant, unbiased estimates of survival probabilities using the full two years of capture history data. This model was applied to 1995 Snake River fall chinook hatchery releases to estimate the true survival probability from one of three upstream release points (Asotin, Billy Creek, and Pittsburgh Landing) to Lower Granite Dam. In the data analyzed here, residualization is not a common physiological response and thus the use of CJS models did not result in appreciably different results than the true survival probability obtained using the new multinomial likelihood model

Increasing Winter Maximal Metabolic Rate Improves Intrawinter Survival in Small Birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Petit, Magali; Clavijo-Baquet, Sabrina; Vézina, François

Small resident bird species living at northern latitudes increase their metabolism in winter, and this is widely assumed to improve their chances of survival. However, the relationship between winter metabolic performance and survival has yet to be demonstrated. Using capture-mark-recapture, we followed a population of free-living black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) over 3 yr and evaluated their survival probability within and among winters. We also measured the size-independent body mass (M s ), hematocrit (Hct), basal metabolic rate (BMR), and maximal thermogenic capacity (Msum) and investigated how these parameters influenced survival within and among winters. Results showed that survival probability was high and constant both within (0.92) and among (0.96) winters. They also showed that while M s , Hct, and BMR had no significant influence, survival was positively related to Msum-following a sigmoid relationship-within but not among winter. Birds expressing an Msum below 1.26 W (i.e., similar to summer levels) had a winter. Our data therefore suggest that black-capped chickadees that are either too slow or unable to adjust their phenotype from summer to winter have little chances of survival and thus that seasonal upregulation of metabolic performance is highly beneficial. This study is the first to document in an avian system the relationship between thermogenic capacity and winter survival, a proxy of fitness.

A track-event theory of cell survival

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Besserer, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe [Zuerich Univ. (Switzerland). Inst. of Physics; Radiotherapy Hirslanden, Zuerich (Switzerland)

2015-09-01

When fractionation schemes for hypofractionation and stereotactic body radiotherapy are considered, a reliable cell survival model at high dose is needed for calculating doses of similar biological effectiveness. In this work a simple model for cell survival which is valid also at high dose is developed from Poisson statistics. An event is defined by two double strand breaks (DSB) on the same or different chromosomes. An event is always lethal due to direct lethal damage or lethal binary misrepair by the formation of chromosome aberrations. Two different mechanisms can produce events: one-track events (OTE) or two-track-events (TTE). The target for an OTE is always a lethal event, the target for an TTE is one DSB. At least two TTEs on the same or different chromosomes are necessary to produce an event. Both, the OTE and the TTE are statistically independent. From the stochastic nature of cell kill which is described by the Poisson distribution the cell survival probability was derived. It was shown that a solution based on Poisson statistics exists for cell survival. It exhibits exponential cell survival at high dose and a finite gradient of cell survival at vanishing dose, which is in agreement with experimental cell studies. The model fits the experimental data nearly as well as the three-parameter formula of Hug-Kellerer and is only based on two free parameters. It is shown that the LQ formalism is an approximation of the model derived in this work. It could be also shown that the derived model predicts a fractionated cell survival experiment better than the LQ-model. It was shown that cell survival can be described with a simple analytical formula on the basis of Poisson statistics. This solution represents in the limit of large dose the typical exponential behavior and predicts cell survival after fractionated dose application better than the LQ-model.

A track-event theory of cell survival

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besserer, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe

2015-01-01

When fractionation schemes for hypofractionation and stereotactic body radiotherapy are considered, a reliable cell survival model at high dose is needed for calculating doses of similar biological effectiveness. In this work a simple model for cell survival which is valid also at high dose is developed from Poisson statistics. An event is defined by two double strand breaks (DSB) on the same or different chromosomes. An event is always lethal due to direct lethal damage or lethal binary misrepair by the formation of chromosome aberrations. Two different mechanisms can produce events: one-track events (OTE) or two-track-events (TTE). The target for an OTE is always a lethal event, the target for an TTE is one DSB. At least two TTEs on the same or different chromosomes are necessary to produce an event. Both, the OTE and the TTE are statistically independent. From the stochastic nature of cell kill which is described by the Poisson distribution the cell survival probability was derived. It was shown that a solution based on Poisson statistics exists for cell survival. It exhibits exponential cell survival at high dose and a finite gradient of cell survival at vanishing dose, which is in agreement with experimental cell studies. The model fits the experimental data nearly as well as the three-parameter formula of Hug-Kellerer and is only based on two free parameters. It is shown that the LQ formalism is an approximation of the model derived in this work. It could be also shown that the derived model predicts a fractionated cell survival experiment better than the LQ-model. It was shown that cell survival can be described with a simple analytical formula on the basis of Poisson statistics. This solution represents in the limit of large dose the typical exponential behavior and predicts cell survival after fractionated dose application better than the LQ-model.

Task 4.1: Development of a framework for creating a databank to generate probability density functions for process parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgazzi, Luciano

2011-01-01

PSA analysis should be based on the best available data for the types of equipment and systems in the plant. In some cases very limited data may be available for evolutionary designs or new equipments, especially in the case of passive systems. It has been recognized that difficulties arise in addressing the uncertainties related to the physical phenomena and characterizing the parameters relevant to the passive system performance evaluation, since the unavailability of a consistent operational and experimental data base. This lack of experimental evidence and validated data forces the analyst to resort to expert/engineering judgment to a large extent, thus making the results strongly dependent upon the expert elicitation process. This prompts the need for the development of a framework for constructing a database to generate probability distributions for the parameters influencing the system behaviour. The objective of the task is to develop a consistent framework aimed at creating probability distributions for the parameters relevant to the passive system performance evaluation. In order to achieve this goal considerable experience and engineering judgement are also required to determine which existing data are most applicable to the new systems or which generic data bases or models provide the best information for the system design. Eventually in case of absence of documented specific reliability data, documented expert judgement coming out from a well structured procedure could be used to envisage sound probability distributions for the parameters under interest

Detection probability of least tern and piping plover chicks in a large river system

Science.gov (United States)

Roche, Erin A.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Anteau, Michael J.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Stucker, Jennifer H.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Dovichin, Colin M.

2014-01-01

Monitoring the abundance and stability of populations of conservation concern is often complicated by an inability to perfectly detect all members of the population. Mark-recapture offers a flexible framework in which one may identify factors contributing to imperfect detection, while at the same time estimating demographic parameters such as abundance or survival. We individually color-marked, recaptured, and re-sighted 1,635 federally listed interior least tern (Sternula antillarum; endangered) chicks and 1,318 piping plover (Charadrius melodus; threatened) chicks from 2006 to 2009 at 4 study areas along the Missouri River and investigated effects of observer-, subject-, and site-level covariates suspected of influencing detection. Increasing the time spent searching and crew size increased the probability of detecting both species regardless of study area and detection methods were not associated with decreased survival. However, associations between detection probability and the investigated covariates were highly variable by study area and species combinations, indicating that a universal mark-recapture design may not be appropriate.

Rapidity gap survival in the black-disk regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leonid Frankfurt; Charles Hyde; Mark Strikman; Christian Weiss

2007-01-01

We summarize how the approach to the black-disk regime (BDR) of strong interactions at TeV energies influences rapidity gap survival in exclusive hard diffraction pp -> p + H + p (H = dijet, Qbar Q, Higgs). Employing a recently developed partonic description of such processes, we discuss (a) the suppression of diffraction at small impact parameters by soft spectator interactions in the BDR; (b) further suppression by inelastic interactions of hard spectator partons in the BDR; (c) effects of correlations between hard and soft interactions, as suggested by various models of proton structure (color fluctuations, spatial correlations of partons). Hard spectator interactions in the BDR substantially reduce the rapidity gap survival probability at LHC energies compared to previously reported estimates

Mean exit time and survival probability within the CTRW formalism

Science.gov (United States)

Montero, M.; Masoliver, J.

2007-05-01

An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood that after some lapse of time a process remains inside the given region without having crossed its boundaries. The final part of the manuscript is devoted to the study of this quantity. Note that the use of SPs may outperform the standard “Value at Risk" (VaR) method for two reasons: we can consider other market dynamics than the limited Wiener process and, even in this case, a risk level derived from the SP will ensure (within the desired quintile) that the quoted value of the portfolio will not leave the safety zone. We present some preliminary theoretical and applied results concerning this topic.

A survivability model for ejection of green compacts in powder metallurgy technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Payman Ahi

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Reliability and quality assurance have become major considerations in the design and manufacture of today’s parts and products. Survivability of green compact using powder metallurgy technology is considered as one of the major quality attributes in manufacturing systems today. During powder metallurgy (PM production, the compaction conditions and behavior of the metal powder dictate the stress and density distribution in the green compact prior to sintering. These parameters greatly influence the mechanical properties and overall strength of the final component. In order to improve these properties, higher compaction pressures are usually employed, which make unloading and ejection of green compacts more challenging, especially for the powder-compacted parts with relatively complicated shapes. This study looked at a mathematical survivability model concerning green compact characteristics in PM technology and the stress-strength failure model in reliability engineering. This model depicts the relationship between mechanical loads (stress during ejection, experimentally determined green strength and survivability of green compact. The resulting survivability is the probability that a green compact survives during and after ejection. This survivability model can be used as an efficient tool for selecting the appropriate parameters for the process planning stage in PM technology. A case study is presented here in order to demonstrate the application of the proposed survivability model.

Determination of probability density functions for parameters in the Munson-Dawson model for creep behavior of salt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfeifle, T.W.; Mellegard, K.D.; Munson, D.E.

1992-10-01

The modified Munson-Dawson (M-D) constitutive model that describes the creep behavior of salt will be used in performance assessment calculations to assess compliance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) facility with requirements governing the disposal of nuclear waste. One of these standards requires that the uncertainty of future states of the system, material model parameters, and data be addressed in the performance assessment models. This paper presents a method in which measurement uncertainty and the inherent variability of the material are characterized by treating the M-D model parameters as random variables. The random variables can be described by appropriate probability distribution functions which then can be used in Monte Carlo or structural reliability analyses. Estimates of three random variables in the M-D model were obtained by fitting a scalar form of the model to triaxial compression creep data generated from tests of WIPP salt. Candidate probability distribution functions for each of the variables were then fitted to the estimates and their relative goodness-of-fit tested using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. A sophisticated statistical software package obtained from BMDP Statistical Software, Inc. was used in the M-D model fitting. A separate software package, STATGRAPHICS, was used in fitting the candidate probability distribution functions to estimates of the variables. Skewed distributions, i.e., lognormal and Weibull, were found to be appropriate for the random variables analyzed

The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia River. Volume 7: Monte-Carlo comparison of confidence internal procedures for estimating survival in a release-recapture study, with applications to Snake River salmonids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowther, A.B.; Skalski, J.

1996-06-01

Confidence intervals for survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities of migrating juvenile salmonids can be computed from the output of the SURPH software developed at the Center for Quantitative Science at the University of Washington. These intervals have been constructed using the estimate of the survival probability, its associated standard error, and assuming the estimate is normally distributed. In order to test the validity and performance of this procedure, two additional confidence interval procedures for estimating survival probabilities were tested and compared using simulated mark-recapture data. Intervals were constructed using normal probability theory, using a percentile-based empirical bootstrap algorithm, and using the profile likelihood concept. Performance of each method was assessed for a variety of initial conditions (release sizes, survival probabilities, detection probabilities). These initial conditions were chosen to encompass the range of parameter values seen in the 1993 and 1994 Snake River juvenile salmonid survival studies. The comparisons among the three estimation methods included average interval width, interval symmetry, and interval coverage

Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

OpenAIRE

Melucci, Massimo

2011-01-01

The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2010-01-01

This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, L.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Krementz, D.G.

2000-01-01

Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ? 0.007 ( ?SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [S_radioed, ~ S_banded]=log [S hat _radioed/ S hat _banded]=0.0239 ? 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata (psi hat=0.911 ? 0.020; alpha hat [psi11, psi22]=0.0161 ? 0.047), and recapture rates ( = 0.097 ? 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [p_radioed, p_banded]=0.145 ? 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] inference from this model, study designs should seek a minimum of 25 animals of each marking type observed (marked or observed via telemetry) in each time period and geographic stratum.

The effect of chemical weapons incineration on the survival rates of Red-tailed Tropicbirds

Science.gov (United States)

Schreiber, E.A.; Schenk, G.A.; Doherty, P.F.

2001-01-01

In 1992, the Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System (JACADS) began incinerating U.S. chemical weapons stockpiles on Johnston Atoll (Pacific Ocean) where about 500,000 seabirds breed, including Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda). We hypothesized that survival rates of birds were lower in those nesting downwind of the incinerator smokestack compared to those upwind, and that birds might move away from the area. From 1992 - 2000 we monitored survival and movements between areas upwind and downwind from the JACADS facility. We used a multi-strata mark recapture approach to model survival, probability of recapture and movement. Probability of recapture was significantly higher for birds in downwind areas (owing to greater recapture effort) and thus was an important 'nuisance' parameter to take into account in modeling. We found no differences in survival between birds nesting upwind ( 0.8588) and downwind (0.8550). There was no consistent difference in movement rates between upwind or downwind areas from year to year: differences found may be attributed to differing vegetation growth and human activities between the areas. Our results suggest that JACADS has had no documentable influence on the survival and year to year movement of Red-tailed Tropicbirds.

Survival curves for irradiated cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibson, D.K.

1975-01-01

The subject of the lecture is the probability of survival of biological cells which have been subjected to ionising radiation. The basic mathematical theories of cell survival as a function of radiation dose are developed. A brief comparison with observed survival curves is made. (author)

Assignment of probability distributions for parameters in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Part 1: description of process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rechard, Rob P.; Tierney, Martin S.

2005-01-01

A managed process was used to consistently and traceably develop probability distributions for parameters representing epistemic uncertainty in four preliminary and the final 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The key to the success of the process was the use of a three-member team consisting of a Parameter Task Leader, PA Analyst, and Subject Matter Expert. This team, in turn, relied upon a series of guidelines for selecting distribution types. The primary function of the guidelines was not to constrain the actual process of developing a parameter distribution but rather to establish a series of well-defined steps where recognized methods would be consistently applied to all parameters. An important guideline was to use a small set of distributions satisfying the maximum entropy formalism. Another important guideline was the consistent use of the log transform for parameters with large ranges (i.e. maximum/minimum>10 3 ). A parameter development team assigned 67 probability density functions (PDFs) in the 1989 PA and 236 PDFs in the 1996 PA using these and other guidelines described

The influence of printing parameters on cell survival rate and printability in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yu; Li, Yang; Mao, Shuangshuang; Sun, Wei; Yao, Rui

2015-11-02

Three-dimensional (3D) cell printing technology has provided a versatile methodology to fabricate cell-laden tissue-like constructs and in vitro tissue/pathological models for tissue engineering, drug testing and screening applications. However, it still remains a challenge to print bioinks with high viscoelasticity to achieve long-term stable structure and maintain high cell survival rate after printing at the same time. In this study, we systematically investigated the influence of 3D cell printing parameters, i.e. composition and concentration of bioink, holding temperature and holding time, on the printability and cell survival rate in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology. Rheological measurements were utilized to characterize the viscoelasticity of gelatin-based bioinks. Results demonstrated that the bioink viscoelasticity was increased when increasing the bioink concentration, increasing holding time and decreasing holding temperature below gelation temperature. The decline of cell survival rate after 3D cell printing process was observed when increasing the viscoelasticity of the gelatin-based bioinks. However, different process parameter combinations would result in the similar rheological characteristics and thus showed similar cell survival rate after 3D bioprinting process. On the other hand, bioink viscoelasticity should also reach a certain point to ensure good printability and shape fidelity. At last, we proposed a protocol for 3D bioprinting of temperature-sensitive gelatin-based hydrogel bioinks with both high cell survival rate and good printability. This research would be useful for biofabrication researchers to adjust the 3D bioprinting process parameters quickly and as a referable template for designing new bioinks.

Survival of inlays and partial crowns made of IPS empress after a 10-year observation period and in relation to various treatment parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoll, Richard; Cappel, I; Jablonski-Momeni, Anahita; Pieper, K; Stachniss, V

2007-01-01

This study evaluated the long-term survival of inlays and partial crowns made of IPS Empress. For this purpose, the patient data of a prospective study were examined in retrospect and statistically evaluated. All of the inlays and partial crowns fabricated of IPS-Empress within the Department of Operative Dentistry at the School of Dental Medicine of Philipps University, Marburg, Germany were systematically recorded in a database between 1991 and 2001. The corresponding patient files were revised at the end of 2001. The information gathered in this way was used to evaluate the survival of the restorations using the method described by Kaplan and Meyer. A total of n = 1624 restorations were fabricated of IPS-Empress within the observation period. During this time, n = 53 failures were recorded. The remaining restorations were observed for a mean period of 18.77 months. The failures were mainly attributed to fractures, endodontic problems and cementation errors. The last failure was established after 82 months. At this stage, a cumulative survival probability of p = 0.81 was registered with a standard error of 0.04. At this time, n = 30 restorations were still being observed. Restorations on vital teeth (n = 1588) showed 46 failures, with a cumulative survival probability of p = 0.82. Restorations performed on non-vital teeth (n = 36) showed seven failures, with a cumulative survival probability of p = 0.53. Highly significant differences were found between the two groups (p < 0.0001) in a log-rank test. No significant difference (p = 0.41) was found between the patients treated by students (n = 909) and those treated by qualified dentists (n = 715). Likewise, no difference (p = 0.13) was established between the restorations seated with a high viscosity cement (n = 295) and those placed with a low viscosity cement (n = 1329).

The perception of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

2014-01-01

We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Stark broadening parameters and transition probabilities of persistent lines of Tl II

Science.gov (United States)

de Andrés-García, I.; Colón, C.; Fernández-Martínez, F.

2018-05-01

The presence of singly ionized thallium in the stellar atmosphere of the chemically peculiar star χ Lupi was reported by Leckrone et al. in 1999 by analysis of its stellar spectrum obtained with the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) on board the Hubble Space Telescope. Atomic data about the spectral line of 1307.50 Å and about the hyperfine components of the spectral lines of 1321.71 Å and 1908.64 Å were taken from different sources and used to analyse the isotopic abundance of thallium II in the star χ Lupi. From their results the authors concluded that the photosphere of the star presents an anomalous isotopic composition of Tl II. A study of the atomic parameters of Tl II and of the broadening by the Stark effect of its spectral lines (and therefore of the possible overlaps of these lines) can help to clarify the conclusions about the spectral abundance of Tl II in different stars. In this paper we present calculated values of the atomic transition probabilities and Stark broadening parameters for 49 spectral lines of Tl II obtained by using the Cowan code including core polarization effects and the Griem semiempirical approach. Theoretical values of radiative lifetimes for 11 levels (eight with experimental values in the bibliography) are calculated and compared with the experimental values in order to test the quality of our results. Theoretical trends of the Stark width and shift parameters versus the temperature for spectral lines of astrophysical interest are displayed. Trends of our calculated Stark width for the isoelectronic sequence Tl II-Pb III-Bi IV are also displayed.

Estimation of probability density functions of damage parameter for valve leakage detection in reciprocating pump used in nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jong Kyeom; Kim, Tae Yun; Kim, Hyun Su; Chai, Jang Bom; Lee, Jin Woo [Div. of Mechanical Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage.

Estimation of probability density functions of damage parameter for valve leakage detection in reciprocating pump used in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jong Kyeom; Kim, Tae Yun; Kim, Hyun Su; Chai, Jang Bom; Lee, Jin Woo

2016-01-01

This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage

Estimation of Probability Density Functions of Damage Parameter for Valve Leakage Detection in Reciprocating Pump Used in Nuclear Power Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jong Kyeom Lee

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage.

Using Thermal Inactivation Kinetics to Calculate the Probability of Extreme Spore Longevity: Implications for Paleomicrobiology and Lithopanspermia

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholson, Wayne L.

2003-12-01

Thermal inactivation kinetics with extrapolation were used to model the survival probabilities of spores of various Bacillus species over time periods of millions of years at the historical ambient temperatures (25-40 °) encountered within the 250 million-year-old Salado formation, from which the putative ancient spore-forming bacterium Salibacillus marismortui strain 2-9-3 was recovered. The model indicated extremely low-to-moderate survival probabilities for spores of mesophiles, but surprisingly high survival probabilities for thermophilic spores. The significance of the results are discussed in terms of the survival probabilities of (i) terrestrial spores in ancient geologic samples and (ii) spores transported between planets within impact ejecta.

Joint modelling of longitudinal CEA tumour marker progression and survival data on breast cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Borges, Ana; Sousa, Inês; Castro, Luis

2017-06-01

This work proposes the use of Biostatistics methods to study breast cancer in patients of Braga's Hospital Senology Unit, located in Portugal. The primary motivation is to contribute to the understanding of the progression of breast cancer, within the Portuguese population, using a more complex statistical model assumptions than the traditional analysis that take into account a possible existence of a serial correlation structure within a same subject observations. We aim to infer which risk factors aect the survival of Braga's Hospital patients, diagnosed with breast tumour. Whilst analysing risk factors that aect a tumour markers used on the surveillance of disease progression the Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). As survival and longitudinal processes may be associated, it is important to model these two processes together. Hence, a joint modelling of these two processes to infer on the association of these was conducted. A data set of 540 patients, along with 50 variables, was collected from medical records of the Hospital. A joint model approach was used to analyse these data. Two dierent joint models were applied to the same data set, with dierent parameterizations which give dierent interpretations to model parameters. These were used by convenience as the ones implemented in R software. Results from the two models were compared. Results from joint models, showed that the longitudinal CEA values were signicantly associated with the survival probability of these patients. A comparison between parameter estimates obtained in this analysis and previous independent survival[4] and longitudinal analysis[5][6], lead us to conclude that independent analysis brings up bias parameter estimates. Hence, an assumption of association between the two processes in a joint model of breast cancer data is necessary. Results indicate that the longitudinal progression of CEA is signicantly associated with the probability of survival of these patients. Hence, an assumption of

Fracture strength and probability of survival of narrow and extra-narrow dental implants after fatigue testing: In vitro and in silico analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bordin, Dimorvan; Bergamo, Edmara T P; Fardin, Vinicius P; Coelho, Paulo G; Bonfante, Estevam A

2017-07-01

To assess the probability of survival (reliability) and failure modes of narrow implants with different diameters. For fatigue testing, 42 implants with the same macrogeometry and internal conical connection were divided, according to diameter, as follows: narrow (Ø3.3×10mm) and extra-narrow (Ø2.9×10mm) (21 per group). Identical abutments were torqued to the implants and standardized maxillary incisor crowns were cemented and subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing (SSALT) in water. The use-level probability Weibull curves, and reliability for a mission of 50,000 and 100,000 cycles at 50N, 100, 150 and 180N were calculated. For the finite element analysis (FEA), two virtual models, simulating the samples tested in fatigue, were constructed. Loading at 50N and 100N were applied 30° off-axis at the crown. The von-Mises stress was calculated for implant and abutment. The beta (β) values were: 0.67 for narrow and 1.32 for extra-narrow implants, indicating that failure rates did not increase with fatigue in the former, but more likely were associated with damage accumulation and wear-out failures in the latter. Both groups showed high reliability (up to 97.5%) at 50 and 100N. A decreased reliability was observed for both groups at 150 and 180N (ranging from 0 to 82.3%), but no significant difference was observed between groups. Failure predominantly involved abutment fracture for both groups. FEA at 50N-load, Ø3.3mm showed higher von-Mises stress for abutment (7.75%) and implant (2%) when compared to the Ø2.9mm. There was no significant difference between narrow and extra-narrow implants regarding probability of survival. The failure mode was similar for both groups, restricted to abutment fracture. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlations and Non-Linear Probability Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Breen, Richard; Holm, Anders; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2014-01-01

the dependent variable of the latent variable model and its predictor variables. We show how this correlation can be derived from the parameters of non-linear probability models, develop tests for the statistical significance of the derived correlation, and illustrate its usefulness in two applications. Under......Although the parameters of logit and probit and other non-linear probability models are often explained and interpreted in relation to the regression coefficients of an underlying linear latent variable model, we argue that they may also be usefully interpreted in terms of the correlations between...... certain circumstances, which we explain, the derived correlation provides a way of overcoming the problems inherent in cross-sample comparisons of the parameters of non-linear probability models....

Additional components of risk assessment and their impact on the probability parameter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piotr Saja

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The article raises the issue of risk assessment and its impact on the quality and safety of work. During the assessment of the turning lathe position additional components associated with the jobs personalization were taken into account. Paragraph 2 item 7 of the Regulation of the Minister of Laborr and Social Policy of 26 September 1997 on general safety regulations defines occupational risk as the likelihood of an adverse event. The authors drew attention to the reality of the accident, which sometimes depends on the predisposition of the employee. It turns out that a correct estimation of the probability of occurrence of the accident to be able to react in a timely way seems extremely important.. This parameter will be assessed more accurately if we take into account a number of additional components resulting from the characteristics of the employee. The results of the personalized assessment of risk may allow appropriate planning of corrective and preventive actions.

The association of {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT parameters with survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klabatsa, Astero; Lang-Lazdunski, Loic [Guys and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, Department of Thoracic Oncology, London (United Kingdom); Chicklore, Sugama; Barrington, Sally F.; Goh, Vicky [Kings College London, Division of Imaging Sciences and Biomedical Engineering, London (United Kingdom); Cook, Gary J.R. [Kings College London, Division of Imaging Sciences and Biomedical Engineering, London (United Kingdom); Kings College London, Clinical PET Centre, Division of Imaging Sciences and Biomedical Engineering, St Thomas' Hospital, London (United Kingdom)

2014-02-15

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a disease with poor prognosis despite multimodal therapy but there is variation in survival between patients. Prognostic information is therefore potentially valuable in managing patients, particularly in the context of clinical trials where patients could be stratified according to risk. Therefore we have evaluated the prognostic ability of parameters derived from baseline 2-[{sup 18}F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ({sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT). In order to determine the relationships between metabolic activity and prognosis we reviewed all {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scans used for pretreatment staging of MPM patients in our institution between January 2005 and December 2011 (n = 60) and measured standardised uptake values (SUV) including mean, maximum and peak values, metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG). Overall survival (OS) or time to last censor was recorded, as well as histological subtypes. Median follow-up was 12.7 months (1.9-60.9) and median OS was 14.1 months (1.9-54.9). By univariable analysis histological subtype (p = 0.013), TLG (p = 0.024) and MTV (p = 0.038) were significantly associated with OS and SUV{sub max} was borderline (p = 0.051). On multivariable analysis histological subtype and TLG were associated with OS but at borderline statistical significance (p = 0.060 and 0.058, respectively). No statistically significant differences in any PET parameters were found between the epithelioid and non-epithelioid histological subtypes. {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT parameters that take into account functional volume (MTV, TLG) show significant associations with survival in patients with MPM before adjusting for histological subtype and are worthy of further evaluation to determine their ability to stratify patients in clinical trials. (orig.)

Estimating true instead of apparent survival using spatial Cormack-Jolly-Seber models

Science.gov (United States)

Schaub, Michael; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

Survival is often estimated from capture–recapture data using Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) models, where mortality and emigration cannot be distinguished, and the estimated apparent survival probability is the product of the probabilities of true survival and of study area fidelity. Consequently, apparent survival is lower than true survival unless study area fidelity equals one. Underestimation of true survival from capture–recapture data is a main limitation of the method.

Probability and statistical correlation of the climatic parameters for estimatingenergy consumption of a building

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samarin Oleg Dmitrievich

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of the most accurate estimation of energy consumption by ventilation and air conditioning systems in buildings is a high-priority task now because of the decrease of energy and fuel sources and because of the revision of building standards in Russian Federation. That’s why it is very important to find simple but accurate enough correlations of the climatic parameters in heating and cooling seasons of a year.Therefore the probabilistic and statistical relationship of the parameters of external climate in warm and cold seasons are considered. The climatic curves for cold and warm seasons in Moscow showing the most probable combinations between the external air temperature and the relative air humidity are plotted using the data from the Design Guidelines to the State Building Code “Building Climatology”. The statistical relationship of the enthalpy and the external air temperature for climatic conditions of Moscow are determined using these climatic curves and formulas connecting relative air humidity and other parameters of the air moisture degree.The mean value of the external air enthalpy for the heating season is calculated in order to simplify the determination of full heat consumption of ventilating and air conditioning systems taking into account the real mean state of external air. The field of application and the estimation of accuracy and standard deviation for the presented dependences are found. The obtained model contains the only independent parameter namely the external air temperature and therefore it can be easily used in engineering practice especially during preliminary calculation.

Probability Distributions for Cyclone Key Parameters and Cyclonic Wind Speed for the East Coast of Indian Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pradeep K. Goyal

2011-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a study conducted on the probabilistic distribution of key cyclone parameters and the cyclonic wind speed by analyzing the cyclone track records obtained from India meteorological department for east coast region of India. The dataset of historical landfalling storm tracks in India from 1975–2007 with latitude /longitude and landfall locations are used to map the cyclone tracks in a region of study. The statistical tests were performed to find a best fit distribution to the track data for each cyclone parameter. These parameters include central pressure difference, the radius of maximum wind speed, the translation velocity, track angle with site and are used to generate digital simulated cyclones using wind field simulation techniques. For this, different sets of values for all the cyclone key parameters are generated randomly from their probability distributions. Using these simulated values of the cyclone key parameters, the distribution of wind velocity at a particular site is obtained. The same distribution of wind velocity at the site is also obtained from actual track records and using the distributions of the cyclone key parameters as published in the literature. The simulated distribution is compared with the wind speed distributions obtained from actual track records. The findings are useful in cyclone disaster mitigation.

Extensions and Applications of the Cox-Aalen Survival Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

2003-01-01

Aalen additive risk model; competing risk; counting processes; Cox model; cumulative incidence function; goodness of fit; prediction of survival probability; time-varying effects......Aalen additive risk model; competing risk; counting processes; Cox model; cumulative incidence function; goodness of fit; prediction of survival probability; time-varying effects...

Understanding survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier estimate.

Science.gov (United States)

Goel, Manish Kumar; Khanna, Pardeep; Kishore, Jugal

2010-10-01

Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after treatment. In clinical trials or community trials, the effect of an intervention is assessed by measuring the number of subjects survived or saved after that intervention over a period of time. The time starting from a defined point to the occurrence of a given event, for example death is called as survival time and the analysis of group data as survival analysis. This can be affected by subjects under study that are uncooperative and refused to be remained in the study or when some of the subjects may not experience the event or death before the end of the study, although they would have experienced or died if observation continued, or we lose touch with them midway in the study. We label these situations as censored observations. The Kaplan-Meier estimate is the simplest way of computing the survival over time in spite of all these difficulties associated with subjects or situations. The survival curve can be created assuming various situations. It involves computing of probabilities of occurrence of event at a certain point of time and multiplying these successive probabilities by any earlier computed probabilities to get the final estimate. This can be calculated for two groups of subjects and also their statistical difference in the survivals. This can be used in Ayurveda research when they are comparing two drugs and looking for survival of subjects.

WE-H-BRA-08: A Monte Carlo Cell Nucleus Model for Assessing Cell Survival Probability Based On Particle Track Structure Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, B [Northwestern Memorial Hospital, Chicago, IL (United States); Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (Georgia); Wang, C [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (Georgia)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To correlate the damage produced by particles of different types and qualities to cell survival on the basis of nanodosimetric analysis and advanced DNA structures in the cell nucleus. Methods: A Monte Carlo code was developed to simulate subnuclear DNA chromatin fibers (CFs) of 30nm utilizing a mean-free-path approach common to radiation transport. The cell nucleus was modeled as a spherical region containing 6000 chromatin-dense domains (CDs) of 400nm diameter, with additional CFs modeled in a sparser interchromatin region. The Geant4-DNA code was utilized to produce a particle track database representing various particles at different energies and dose quantities. These tracks were used to stochastically position the DNA structures based on their mean free path to interaction with CFs. Excitation and ionization events intersecting CFs were analyzed using the DBSCAN clustering algorithm for assessment of the likelihood of producing DSBs. Simulated DSBs were then assessed based on their proximity to one another for a probability of inducing cell death. Results: Variations in energy deposition to chromatin fibers match expectations based on differences in particle track structure. The quality of damage to CFs based on different particle types indicate more severe damage by high-LET radiation than low-LET radiation of identical particles. In addition, the model indicates more severe damage by protons than of alpha particles of same LET, which is consistent with differences in their track structure. Cell survival curves have been produced showing the L-Q behavior of sparsely ionizing radiation. Conclusion: Initial results indicate the feasibility of producing cell survival curves based on the Monte Carlo cell nucleus method. Accurate correlation between simulated DNA damage to cell survival on the basis of nanodosimetric analysis can provide insight into the biological responses to various radiation types. Current efforts are directed at producing cell

Age-specific survival of tundra swans on the lower Alaska Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Meixell, Brandt W.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Conn, Paul B.; Dau, Christian P.; Sarvis, John E.; Sowl, Kristine M.

2013-01-01

The population of Tundra Swans (Cygnus columbianus columbianus) breeding on the lower Alaska Peninsula represents the southern extremity of the species' range and is uniquely nonmigratory. We used data on recaptures, resightings, and recoveries of neck-collared Tundra Swans on the lower Alaska Peninsula to estimate collar loss, annual apparent survival, and other demographic parameters for the years 1978–1989. Annual collar loss was greater for adult males fitted with either the thinner collar type (0.34) or the thicker collar type (0.15) than for other age/sex classes (thinner: 0.10, thicker: 0.04). The apparent mean probability of survival of adults (0.61) was higher than that of immatures (0.41) and for both age classes varied considerably by year (adult range: 0.44–0.95, immature range: 0.25–0.90). To assess effects of permanent emigration by age and breeding class, we analyzed post hoc the encounter histories of swans known to breed in our study area. The apparent mean survival of known breeders (0.65) was generally higher than that of the entire marked sample but still varied considerably by year (range 0.26–1.00) and indicated that permanent emigration of breeding swans was likely. We suggest that reductions in apparent survival probability were influenced primarily by high and variable rates of permanent emigration and that immigration by swans from elsewhere may be important in sustaining a breeding population at and near Izembek National Wildlife Refuge.

Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

Science.gov (United States)

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

2004-01-01

We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

Long-term survival in laparoscopic vs open resection for colorectal liver metastases: inverse probability of treatment weighting using propensity scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewin, Joel W; O'Rourke, Nicholas A; Chiow, Adrian K H; Bryant, Richard; Martin, Ian; Nathanson, Leslie K; Cavallucci, David J

2016-02-01

This study compares long-term outcomes between intention-to-treat laparoscopic and open approaches to colorectal liver metastases (CLM), using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) based on propensity scores to control for selection bias. Patients undergoing liver resection for CLM by 5 surgeons at 3 institutions from 2000 to early 2014 were analysed. IPTW based on propensity scores were generated and used to assess the marginal treatment effect of the laparoscopic approach via a weighted Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 298 operations were performed in 256 patients. 7 patients with planned two-stage resections were excluded leaving 284 operations in 249 patients for analysis. After IPTW, the population was well balanced. With a median follow up of 36 months, 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) for the cohort were 59% and 38%. 146 laparoscopic procedures were performed in 140 patients, with weighted 5-year OS and RFS of 54% and 36% respectively. In the open group, 138 procedures were performed in 122 patients, with a weighted 5-year OS and RFS of 63% and 38% respectively. There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of OS or RFS. In the Brisbane experience, after accounting for bias in treatment assignment, long term survival after LLR for CLM is equivalent to outcomes in open surgery. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantum correlations in terms of neutrino oscillation probabilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alok, Ashutosh Kumar, E-mail: akalok@iitj.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, Jodhpur 342011 (India); Banerjee, Subhashish, E-mail: subhashish@iitj.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, Jodhpur 342011 (India); Uma Sankar, S., E-mail: uma@phy.iitb.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400076 (India)

2016-08-15

Neutrino oscillations provide evidence for the mode entanglement of neutrino mass eigenstates in a given flavour eigenstate. Given this mode entanglement, it is pertinent to consider the relation between the oscillation probabilities and other quantum correlations. In this work, we show that all the well-known quantum correlations, such as the Bell's inequality, are directly related to the neutrino oscillation probabilities. The results of the neutrino oscillation experiments, which measure the neutrino survival probability to be less than unity, imply Bell's inequality violation.

Biologically-equivalent dose and long-term survival time in radiation treatments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaider, Marco; Hanin, Leonid

2007-01-01

Within the linear-quadratic model the biologically-effective dose (BED)-taken to represent treatments with an equal tumor control probability (TCP)-is commonly (and plausibly) calculated according to BED(D) = -log[S(D)]/α. We ask whether in the presence of cellular proliferation this claim is justified and examine, as a related question, the extent to which BED approximates an isoeffective dose (IED) defined, more sensibly, in terms of an equal long-term survival probability, rather than TCP. We derive, under the assumption that cellular birth and death rates are time homogeneous, exact equations for the isoeffective dose, IED. As well, we give a rigorous definition of effective long-term survival time, T eff . By using several sets of radiobiological parameters, we illustrate potential differences between BED and IED on the one hand and, on the other, between T eff calculated as suggested here or by an earlier recipe. In summary: (a) the equations currently in use for calculating the effective treatment time may underestimate the isoeffective dose and should be avoided. The same is the case for the tumor control probability (TCP), only more so; (b) for permanent implants BED may be a poor substitute for IED; (c) for a fractionated treatment schedule, interpreting the observed probability of cure in terms of a TCP formalism that refers to the end of the treatment (rather than T eff ) may result in a miscalculation (underestimation) of the initial number of clonogens

Probabilities of Pulmonary and Cardiac Complications and Radiographic Parameters in Breast Cancer Radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noh, O Kyu; Paek, Sung Ho; Ahn, Seung Do; Choi, Eun Kyung; Lee, Sang Wook; Song, Si Yeol; Yoon, Sang Min; Kim, Jong Hoon [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2010-11-15

To evaluate the relationship between the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) of 3- dimensional (3-D) radiotherapy and the radiographic parameters of 2-dimensional (2-D) radiotherapy such as central lung distance (CLD) and maximal heart distance (MHD). We analyzed 110 patients who were treated with postoperative radiotherapy for breast cancer. A two-field tangential technique, a three-field technique, and the reverse hockey stick method were used. The radiation dose administered to whole breast or the chest wall was 50.4 Gy, whereas a 45 Gy was administered to the supraclavicular field. The NTCPs of the heart and lung were calculated by the modified Lyman model and the relative seriality model. For all patients, the NTCPs of radiation-induced pneumonitis and cardiac mortality were 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. The NTCP of radiation-induced pneumonitis was higher in patients treated with the reverse hockey stick method than in those treated by other two techniques (0.0%, 0.0%, 3.1%, p<0.001). The NTCP of radiation-induced pneumonitis increased with CLD. The NTCP of cardiac mortality increased with MHD (R2=0.808). We found a close correlation between the NTCP of 3-D radiotherapy and 2-D radiographic parameters. Our results are useful to reanalyze the previous 2-D based clinical reports about breast radiation therapy complications as a viewpoint of NTCP.

Probabilities of Pulmonary and Cardiac Complications and Radiographic Parameters in Breast Cancer Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noh, O Kyu; Paek, Sung Ho; Ahn, Seung Do; Choi, Eun Kyung; Lee, Sang Wook; Song, Si Yeol; Yoon, Sang Min; Kim, Jong Hoon

2010-01-01

To evaluate the relationship between the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) of 3- dimensional (3-D) radiotherapy and the radiographic parameters of 2-dimensional (2-D) radiotherapy such as central lung distance (CLD) and maximal heart distance (MHD). We analyzed 110 patients who were treated with postoperative radiotherapy for breast cancer. A two-field tangential technique, a three-field technique, and the reverse hockey stick method were used. The radiation dose administered to whole breast or the chest wall was 50.4 Gy, whereas a 45 Gy was administered to the supraclavicular field. The NTCPs of the heart and lung were calculated by the modified Lyman model and the relative seriality model. For all patients, the NTCPs of radiation-induced pneumonitis and cardiac mortality were 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. The NTCP of radiation-induced pneumonitis was higher in patients treated with the reverse hockey stick method than in those treated by other two techniques (0.0%, 0.0%, 3.1%, p<0.001). The NTCP of radiation-induced pneumonitis increased with CLD. The NTCP of cardiac mortality increased with MHD (R2=0.808). We found a close correlation between the NTCP of 3-D radiotherapy and 2-D radiographic parameters. Our results are useful to reanalyze the previous 2-D based clinical reports about breast radiation therapy complications as a viewpoint of NTCP.

Survival of radio-implanted drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake) in relation to body size and sex

Science.gov (United States)

Hyslop, N.L.; Meyers, J.M.; Cooper, R.J.; Norton, Terry M.

2009-01-01

Drymarchon couperi (eastern indigo snake) has experienced population declines across its range primarily as a result of extensive habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation. Conservation efforts for D. couperi have been hindered, in part, because of informational gaps regarding the species, including a lack of data on population ecology and estimates of demographic parameters such as survival. We conducted a 2- year radiotelemetry study of D. couperi on Fort Stewart Military Reservation and adjacent private lands located in southeastern Georgia to assess individual characteristics associated with probability of survival. We used known-fate modeling to estimate survival, and an information-theoretic approach, based on a priori hypotheses, to examine intraspecific differences in survival probabilities relative to individual covariates (sex, size, size standardized by sex, and overwintering location). Annual survival in 2003 and 2004 was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.73-0.97, n = 25) and 0.72 (95% CI = 0.52-0.86; n = 27), respectively. Results indicated that body size, standardized by sex, was the most important covariate determining survival of adult D. couperi, suggesting lower survival for larger individuals within each sex. We are uncertain of the mechanisms underlying this result, but possibilities may include greater resource needs for larger individuals within each sex, necessitating larger or more frequent movements, or a population with older individuals. Our results may also have been influenced by analysis limitations because of sample size, other sources of individual variation, or environmental conditions. ?? 2009 by The Herpetologists' League, Inc.

Post-treatment changes of tumour perfusion parameters can help to predict survival in patients with high-grade astrocytoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanz-Requena, Roberto; Marti-Bonmati, Luis [Hospital Quironsalud Valencia, Radiology Department, Valencia (Spain); Hospital Universitari i Politecnic La Fe, Grupo de Investigacion Biomedica en Imagen, Valencia (Spain); Revert-Ventura, Antonio J.; Salame-Gamarra, Fares [Hospital de Manises, Radiology Department, Manises (Spain); Garcia-Marti, Gracian [Hospital Quironsalud Valencia, Radiology Department, Valencia (Spain); Hospital Universitari i Politecnic La Fe, Grupo de Investigacion Biomedica en Imagen, Valencia (Spain); CIBER-SAM, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid (Spain); Perez-Girbes, Alexandre [Hospital Universitari i Politecnic La Fe, Grupo de Investigacion Biomedica en Imagen, Valencia (Spain); Molla-Olmos, Enrique [Hospital La Ribera, Radiology Department, Alzira (Spain)

2017-08-15

Vascular characteristics of tumour and peritumoral volumes of high-grade gliomas change with treatment. This work evaluates the variations of T2*-weighted perfusion parameters as overall survival (OS) predictors. Forty-five patients with histologically confirmed high-grade astrocytoma (8 grade III and 37 grade IV) were included. All patients underwent pre- and post-treatment T2*-weighted contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Tumour, peritumoral and control volumes were segmented. Relative variations of cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV), mean transit time (MTT), K{sup trans-T2*}, k{sub ep-T2*}, v{sub e-T2*} and v{sub p-T2*} were calculated. Differences regarding tumour grade and surgical resection extension were evaluated with ANOVA tests. For each parameter, two groups were defined by non-supervised clusterisation. Survival analysis were performed on these groups. For the tumour region, the 90th percentile increase or stagnation of CBV was associated with shorter survival, while a decrease related to longer survival (393 ± 189 vs 594 ± 294 days; log-rank p = 0.019; Cox hazard-ratio, 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-4.74). K{sup trans-T2*} showed similar results (414 ± 177 vs 553 ± 312 days; log-rank p = 0.037; hazard-ratio, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.03-4.65). The peritumoral area values showed no relationship with OS. Post-treatment variations of the highest CBV and K{sup trans-T2*} values in the tumour volume are predictive factors of OS in patients with high-grade gliomas. (orig.)

Challenging a dogma: five-year survival does not equal cure in all colorectal cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdel-Rahman, Omar

2018-02-01

The current study tried to evaluate the factors affecting 10- to 20- years' survival among long term survivors (>5 years) of colorectal cancer (CRC). Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (1988-2008) was queried through SEER*Stat program.Univariate probability of overall and cancer-specific survival was determined and the difference between groups was examined. Multivariate analysis for factors affecting overall and cancer-specific survival was also conducted. Among node positive patients (Dukes C), 34% of the deaths beyond 5 years can be attributed to CRC; while among M1 patients, 63% of the deaths beyond 5 years can be attributed to CRC. The following factors were predictors of better overall survival in multivariate analysis: younger age, white race (versus black race), female gender, Right colon location (versus rectal location), earlier stage and surgery (P <0.0001 for all parameters). Similarly, the following factors were predictors of better cancer-specific survival in multivariate analysis: younger age, white race (versus black race), female gender, Right colon location (versus left colon and rectal locations), earlier stage and surgery (P <0.0001 for all parameters). Among node positive long-term CRC survivors, more than one third of all deaths can be attributed to CRC.

Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Joshua H; Johnson, Devin S; Lindberg, Mark S; Adams, Layne G

2015-10-01

Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark-resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package.

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Guyot, Patricia; Ades, A E; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Welton, Nicky J

2012-02-01

The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

Toxicity of mercury (Hg on survival and growth rate, hemato- and histopathological parameters ofOreochromis niloticus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kukuh Nirmala

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Heavy metals are serious pollutants of the aquatic environment because of their environmental persistence and ability to be accumulated by aquatic organisms. Oreochromis niloticus exposed to 0, 0.16, 0.5, and 1.0 ppm Hg for 30 days. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of mercury in water on survival rate, growth rates, hematological, and histological parameters of Oreochromis niloticus. This study was conducted from Mei to June 2009. The experimental design was arranged in completely randomized design with four treatments and three replications. Stock density was 8 fish/aquarium with mean initial body weight was 15.70±1.13 g. Growth and survival rates of test fish were decreased with increasing the Hg concentration. Red blood cell (RBC count, haematocrit content, and haemoglobin content decreased when compared to the control. The number of white blood cells (WBC increased in mercuric treated fish. The results are statistically significant at p<0.05 level. Keywords:mercury, survival and growth rate, hematology, histopathology, Oreochromis niloticus

Survival analysis approach to account for non-exponential decay rate effects in lifetime experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coakley, K.J.; Dewey, M.S.; Huber, M.G.; Huffer, C.R.; Huffman, P.R.; Marley, D.E.; Mumm, H.P.; O'Shaughnessy, C.M.; Schelhammer, K.W.; Thompson, A.K.; Yue, A.T.

2016-01-01

In experiments that measure the lifetime of trapped particles, in addition to loss mechanisms with exponential survival probability functions, particles can be lost by mechanisms with non-exponential survival probability functions. Failure to account for such loss mechanisms produces systematic measurement error and associated systematic uncertainties in these measurements. In this work, we develop a general competing risks survival analysis method to account for the joint effect of loss mechanisms with either exponential or non-exponential survival probability functions, and a method to quantify the size of systematic effects and associated uncertainties for lifetime estimates. As a case study, we apply our survival analysis formalism and method to the Ultra Cold Neutron lifetime experiment at NIST. In this experiment, neutrons can escape a magnetic trap before they decay due to a wall loss mechanism with an associated non-exponential survival probability function.

Survival analysis approach to account for non-exponential decay rate effects in lifetime experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coakley, K.J., E-mail: kevincoakley@nist.gov [National Institute of Standards and Technology, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 (United States); Dewey, M.S.; Huber, M.G. [National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, Stop 8461, Gaithersburg, MD 20899 (United States); Huffer, C.R.; Huffman, P.R. [North Carolina State University, 2401 Stinson Drive, Box 8202, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory, 116 Science Drive, Box 90308, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Marley, D.E. [National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, Stop 8461, Gaithersburg, MD 20899 (United States); North Carolina State University, 2401 Stinson Drive, Box 8202, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Mumm, H.P. [National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, Stop 8461, Gaithersburg, MD 20899 (United States); O' Shaughnessy, C.M. [University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 120 E. Cameron Ave., CB #3255, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory, 116 Science Drive, Box 90308, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Schelhammer, K.W. [North Carolina State University, 2401 Stinson Drive, Box 8202, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory, 116 Science Drive, Box 90308, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Thompson, A.K.; Yue, A.T. [National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, Stop 8461, Gaithersburg, MD 20899 (United States)

2016-03-21

In experiments that measure the lifetime of trapped particles, in addition to loss mechanisms with exponential survival probability functions, particles can be lost by mechanisms with non-exponential survival probability functions. Failure to account for such loss mechanisms produces systematic measurement error and associated systematic uncertainties in these measurements. In this work, we develop a general competing risks survival analysis method to account for the joint effect of loss mechanisms with either exponential or non-exponential survival probability functions, and a method to quantify the size of systematic effects and associated uncertainties for lifetime estimates. As a case study, we apply our survival analysis formalism and method to the Ultra Cold Neutron lifetime experiment at NIST. In this experiment, neutrons can escape a magnetic trap before they decay due to a wall loss mechanism with an associated non-exponential survival probability function.

Colon cancer: association of histopathological parameters and patients' survival with clinical presentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexiusdottir, Kristin K; Snaebjornsson, Petur; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Jonasson, Larus; Olafsdottir, Elinborg J; Björnsson, Einar Stefan; Möller, Pall Helgi; Jonasson, Jon G

2013-10-01

Available data correlating symptoms of colon cancer patients with the severity of the disease are very limited. In a population-based setting, we correlated information on symptoms of colon cancer patients with several pathological tumor parameters and survival. Information on all patients diagnosed with colon cancer in Iceland in 1995-2004 for this retrospective, population-based study was obtained from the Icelandic Cancer Registry. Information on symptoms of patients and blood hemoglobin was collected from patients' files. Pathological parameters were obtained from a previously performed standardized tumor review. A total of 768 patients entered this study; the median age was 73 years. Tumors in patients presenting at diagnosis with visible blood in stools were significantly more likely to be of lower grade, having pushing border, conspicuous peritumoral lymphocytic infiltration, and lower frequency of vessel invasion. Patients with abdominal pain and anemia were significantly more likely to have vessel invasion. Logistic regression showed that visible blood in stools was significantly associated with protecting pathological factors (OR range 0.38-0.83, p characteristics and adverse outcome for patients. © 2013 APMIS Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Modelling the probability of building fires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vojtěch Barták

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

Estimating the probability of survival of individual shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata mill.) trees

Science.gov (United States)

Sudip Shrestha; Thomas B. Lynch; Difei Zhang; James M. Guldin

2012-01-01

A survival model is needed in a forest growth system which predicts the survival of trees on individual basis or on a stand basis (Gertner, 1989). An individual-tree modeling approach is one of the better methods available for predicting growth and yield as it provides essential information about particular tree species; tree size, tree quality and tree present status...

Foreign Ownership and Long-term Survival

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kronborg, Dorte; Thomsen, Steen

2006-01-01

probability. On average exit risk for domestic companies is 2.3 times higher than for foreign companies. First movers like Siemens, Philips, Kodak, Ford, GM or Goodyear have been active in the country for almost a century. Relative foreign survival increases with company age. However, the foreign survival...

VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

THE REGULARITY OF INFLUENCE OF TRAFFIC PARAMETERS ON THE PROBABILITY OF REALISATION OF PLANNED PASSENGER TRANSFER AT TRANSFER NODES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Samchuk

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the definition of traffic parameters that ensure the minimum value of the transfer waiting time for passengers. On the basis of experimental studies results, a regression equation to determine the probability of realisation of the planned transfer between a pair of vehicles was proposed. Using the identified regression equation, the transfer waiting time can be assessed for any headway exceeding 7,5 min.

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guyot Patricia

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. Methods We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. Results The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. Conclusion The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

Probability problems in seismic risk analysis and load combinations for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

George, L.L.

1983-01-01

This workshop describes some probability problems in power plant reliability and maintenance analysis. The problems are seismic risk analysis, loss of load probability, load combinations, and load sharing. The seismic risk problem is to compute power plant reliability given an earthquake and the resulting risk. Component survival occurs if its peak random response to the earthquake does not exceed its strength. Power plant survival is a complicated Boolean function of component failures and survivals. The responses and strengths of components are dependent random processes, and the peak responses are maxima of random processes. The resulting risk is the expected cost of power plant failure

Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki

2011-03-01

A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

Effect of inactive yeast cell wall on growth performance, survival rate and immune parameters in Pacific White Shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rutchanee Chotikachinda

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Effects of dietary inactive yeast cell wall on growth performance, survival rate, and immune parameters in pacific white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei was investigated. Three dosages of inactive yeast cell wall (0, 1, and 2 g kg-1 were tested in three replicate groups of juvenile shrimps with an average initial weight of 7.15±0.05 g for four weeks. There was no significant difference in final weight, survival rate, specific growth rate, feed conversion ratio, feed intake, protein efficiency ratio, and apparent net protein utilization of each treatments. However, different levels of inactive yeast cell wall showed an effect on certain immune parameters (p<0.05. Total hemocyte counts, granular hemocyte count, and bacterial clearance were better in shrimp fed diets supplemented with 1 and 2 g kg-1 inactive yeast cell wall as compared with thecontrol group.

Hospital of Diagnosis Influences the Probability of Receiving Curative Treatment for Esophageal Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

van Putten, Margreet; Koëter, Marijn; van Laarhoven, Hanneke W M; Lemmens, Valery E P P; Siersema, Peter D; Hulshof, Maarten C C M; Verhoeven, Rob H A; Nieuwenhuijzen, Grard A P

2018-02-01

The aim of this article was to study the influence of hospital of diagnosis on the probability of receiving curative treatment and its impact on survival among patients with esophageal cancer (EC). Although EC surgery is centralized in the Netherlands, the disease is often diagnosed in hospitals that do not perform this procedure. Patients with potentially curable esophageal or gastroesophageal junction tumors diagnosed between 2005 and 2013 who were potentially curable (cT1-3,X, any N, M0,X) were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Multilevel logistic regression was performed to examine the probability to undergo curative treatment (resection with or without neoadjuvant treatment, definitive chemoradiotherapy, or local tumor excision) according to hospital of diagnosis. Effects of variation in probability of undergoing curative treatment among these hospitals on survival were investigated by Cox regression. All 13,017 patients with potentially curable EC, diagnosed in 91 hospitals, were included. The proportion of patients receiving curative treatment ranged from 37% to 83% and from 45% to 86% in the periods 2005-2009 and 2010-2013, respectively, depending on hospital of diagnosis. After adjustment for patient- and hospital-related characteristics these proportions ranged from 41% to 77% and from 50% to 82%, respectively (both P < 0.001). Multivariable survival analyses showed that patients diagnosed in hospitals with a low probability of undergoing curative treatment had a worse overall survival (hazard ratio = 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.20; hazard ratio = 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.24). The variation in probability of undergoing potentially curative treatment for EC between hospitals of diagnosis and its impact on survival indicates that treatment decision making in EC may be improved.

The Prognostic Influence of BRAF Mutation and other Molecular, Clinical and Laboratory Parameters in Stage IV Colorectal Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Karadima, Maria L; Saetta, Angelica A; Chatziandreou, Ilenia; Lazaris, Andreas C; Patsouris, Efstratios; Tsavaris, Nikolaos

2016-10-01

Our aim was to evaluate the predictive and prognostic influence of BRAF mutation and other molecular, clinical and laboratory parameters in stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC). 60 patients were included in this retrospective analysis, and 17 variables were examined for their relation with treatment response and survival. KRAS mutation was identified in 40.3 % of cases, BRAF and PIK3CA in 8.8 % and 10.5 % respectively. 29.8 % of patients responded to treatment. Median survival time was 14.3 months. Weight loss, fever, abdominal metastases, blood transfusion, hypoalbuminaimia, BRAF and PIK3CA mutations, CRP and DNA Index were associated with survival. In multivariate analysis, male patients had 3.8 times higher probability of response, increased DNA Index was inversely correlated with response and one unit raise of DNA Index augmented 6 times the probability of death. Our findings potentiate the prognostic role of BRAF, PIK3CA mutations and ploidy in advanced CRC.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

On the surviving fraction in irradiated multicellular tumour spheroids: calculation of overall radiosensitivity parameters, influence of hypoxia and volume effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horas, Jorge A; Olguin, Osvaldo R; Rizzotto, Marcos G

2005-01-01

We model the heterogeneous response to radiation of multicellular tumour spheroids assuming position- and volume-dependent radiosensitivity. We propose a method to calculate the overall radiosensitivity parameters to obtain the surviving fraction of tumours. A mathematical model of a spherical tumour with a hypoxic core and a viable rim which is a caricature of a real tumour is constructed. The model is embedded in a two-compartment linear-quadratic (LQ) model, assuming a mixed bivariated Gaussian distribution to attain the radiosensitivity parameters. Ergodicity, i.e., the equivalence between ensemble and volumetric averages is used to obtain the overall radiosensitivities for the two compartments. We obtain expressions for the overall radiosensitivity parameters resulting from the use of both a linear and a nonlinear dependence of the local radiosensitivity with position. The model's results are compared with experimental data of surviving fraction (SF) for multicellular spheroids of different sizes. We make one fit using only the smallest spheroid data and we are able to predict the SF for the larger spheroids. These predictions are acceptable particularly using bounded sensitivities. We conclude with the importance of taking into account the contribution of clonogenic hypoxic cells to radiosensitivity and with the convenience of using bounded local sensitivities to predict overall radiosensitivity parameters

A new algorithm for finding survival coefficients employed in reliability equations

Science.gov (United States)

Bouricius, W. G.; Flehinger, B. J.

1973-01-01

Product reliabilities are predicted from past failure rates and reasonable estimate of future failure rates. Algorithm is used to calculate probability that product will function correctly. Algorithm sums the probabilities of each survival pattern and number of permutations for that pattern, over all possible ways in which product can survive.

How long do the dead survive on the road? Carcass persistence probability and implications for road-kill monitoring surveys.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara M Santos

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Road mortality is probably the best-known and visible impact of roads upon wildlife. Although several factors influence road-kill counts, carcass persistence time is considered the most important determinant underlying underestimates of road mortality. The present study aims to describe and model carcass persistence variability on the road for different taxonomic groups under different environmental conditions throughout the year; and also to assess the effect of sampling frequency on the relative variation in road-kill estimates registered within a survey. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Daily surveys of road-killed vertebrates were conducted over one year along four road sections with different traffic volumes. Survival analysis was then used to i describe carcass persistence timings for overall and for specific animal groups; ii assess optimal sampling designs according to research objectives; and iii model the influence of road, animal and weather factors on carcass persistence probabilities. Most animal carcasses persisted on the road for the first day only, with some groups disappearing at very high rates. The advisable periodicity of road monitoring that minimizes bias in road mortality estimates is daily monitoring for bats (in the morning and lizards (in the afternoon, daily monitoring for toads, small birds, small mammals, snakes, salamanders, and lagomorphs; 1 day-interval (alternate days for large birds, birds of prey, hedgehogs, and freshwater turtles; and 2 day-interval for carnivores. Multiple factors influenced the persistence probabilities of vertebrate carcasses on the road. Overall, the persistence was much lower for small animals, on roads with lower traffic volumes, for carcasses located on road lanes, and during humid conditions and high temperatures during the wet season and dry seasons, respectively. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The guidance given here on monitoring frequencies is particularly relevant to provide

How long do the dead survive on the road? Carcass persistence probability and implications for road-kill monitoring surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Sara M; Carvalho, Filipe; Mira, António

2011-01-01

Road mortality is probably the best-known and visible impact of roads upon wildlife. Although several factors influence road-kill counts, carcass persistence time is considered the most important determinant underlying underestimates of road mortality. The present study aims to describe and model carcass persistence variability on the road for different taxonomic groups under different environmental conditions throughout the year; and also to assess the effect of sampling frequency on the relative variation in road-kill estimates registered within a survey. Daily surveys of road-killed vertebrates were conducted over one year along four road sections with different traffic volumes. Survival analysis was then used to i) describe carcass persistence timings for overall and for specific animal groups; ii) assess optimal sampling designs according to research objectives; and iii) model the influence of road, animal and weather factors on carcass persistence probabilities. Most animal carcasses persisted on the road for the first day only, with some groups disappearing at very high rates. The advisable periodicity of road monitoring that minimizes bias in road mortality estimates is daily monitoring for bats (in the morning) and lizards (in the afternoon), daily monitoring for toads, small birds, small mammals, snakes, salamanders, and lagomorphs; 1 day-interval (alternate days) for large birds, birds of prey, hedgehogs, and freshwater turtles; and 2 day-interval for carnivores. Multiple factors influenced the persistence probabilities of vertebrate carcasses on the road. Overall, the persistence was much lower for small animals, on roads with lower traffic volumes, for carcasses located on road lanes, and during humid conditions and high temperatures during the wet season and dry seasons, respectively. The guidance given here on monitoring frequencies is particularly relevant to provide conservation and transportation agencies with accurate numbers of road

Collision Probability Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1998-01-01

It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

First estimates of the probability of survival in a small-bodied, high-elevation frog (Boreal Chorus Frog, Pseudacris maculata), or how historical data can be useful

Science.gov (United States)

Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, R. D.; Amburgey, S. M.; Matthews, T.; Spencer, A. W.; Corn, P.S.

2016-01-01

In an era of shrinking budgets yet increasing demands for conservation, the value of existing (i.e., historical) data are elevated. Lengthy time series on common, or previously common, species are particularly valuable and may be available only through the use of historical information. We provide first estimates of the probability of survival and longevity (0.67–0.79 and 5–7 years, respectively) for a subalpine population of a small-bodied, ostensibly common amphibian, the Boreal Chorus Frog (Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)), using historical data and contemporary, hypothesis-driven information–theoretic analyses. We also test a priori hypotheses about the effects of color morph (as suggested by early reports) and of drought (as suggested by recent climate predictions) on survival. Using robust mark–recapture models, we find some support for early hypotheses regarding the effect of color on survival, but we find no effect of drought. The congruence between early findings and our analyses highlights the usefulness of historical information in providing raw data for contemporary analyses and context for conservation and management decisions.

A probability of synthesis of the superheavy element Z = 124

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manjunatha, H.C. [Government College for Women, Department of Physics, Kolar, Karnataka (India); Sridhar, K.N. [Government First Grade College, Department of Physics, Kolar, Karnataka (India)

2017-10-15

We have studied the fusion cross section, evaporation residue cross section, compound nucleus formation probability (P{sub CN}) and survival probability (P{sub sur}) of different projectile target combinations to synthesize the superheavy element Z=124. Hence, we have identified the most probable projectile-target combination to synthesize the superheavy element Z = 124. To synthesize the superheavy element Z=124, the most probable projectile target combinations are Kr+Ra, Ni+Cm, Se+Th, Ge+U and Zn+Pu. We hope that our predictions may be a guide for the future experiments in the synthesis of superheavy nuclei Z = 124. (orig.)

Accurate potential energy curves, spectroscopic parameters, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities of 21 low-lying states of the CO+ cation

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, Wei; Shi, Deheng; Zhang, Jicai; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2018-05-01

This paper calculates the potential energy curves of 21 Λ-S and 42 Ω states, which arise from the first two dissociation asymptotes of the CO+ cation. The calculations are conducted using the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the valence internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with the Davidson correction. To improve the reliability and accuracy of the potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of potential energies to the complete basis set limit are taken into account. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are determined. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels is evaluated. To better study the transition probabilities, the transition dipole moments are computed. The Franck-Condon factors and Einstein coefficients of some emissions are calculated. The radiative lifetimes are determined for a number of vibrational levels of several states. The transitions between different Λ-S states are evaluated. Spectroscopic routines for observing these states are proposed. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered to be very reliable and can be used as guidelines for detecting these states in an appropriate spectroscopy experiment, especially for the states that were very difficult to observe or were not detected in previous experiments.

Flu Shots, Mammogram, and the Perception of Probabilities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Carman, K.G.; Kooreman, P.

2010-01-01

We study individuals’ decisions to decline or accept preventive health care interventions such as flu shots and mammograms. In particular, we analyze the role of perceptions of the effectiveness of the intervention, by eliciting individuals' subjective probabilities of sickness and survival, with

Malnutrition among rural and urban children in Lesotho: related hazard and survival probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zeleke Worku

2003-11-01

Full Text Available The relationship between the survival time of children and several variables that affect the survival and nutritional status of children under the age of five years in the Maseru District of Lesotho was investigated. Opsomming Die verhouding tussen die oorlewingstyd van kinders en verskeie veranderlikes wat die oorlewings- en voedingstatus van kinders onder die ouderdom van vyf jaar affekteer is in die Maseru-distrik in Lesotho nagevors. *Please note: This is a reduced version of the abstract. Please refer to PDF for full text.

Age-specific survival of reintroduced swift fox in Badlands National Park and surrounding lands

Science.gov (United States)

Sasmal, Indrani; Klaver, Robert W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Schroeder, Greg M.

2016-01-01

In 2003, a reintroduction program was initiated at Badlands National Park (BNP), South Dakota, USA, with swift foxes (Vulpes velox) translocated from Colorado and Wyoming, USA, as part of a restoration effort to recover declining swift fox populations throughout its historical range. Estimates of age-specific survival are necessary to evaluate the potential for population growth of reintroduced populations. We used 7 years (2003–2009) of capture–recapture data of 243 pups, 29 yearlings, and 69 adult swift foxes at BNP and the surrounding area to construct Cormack–Jolly–Seber model estimates of apparent survival within a capture–mark–recapture framework using Program MARK. The best model for estimating recapture probabilities included no differences among age classes, greater recapture probabilities during early years of the monitoring effort than later years, and variation among spring, winter, and summer. Our top ranked survival model indicated pup survival differed from that of yearlings and adults and varied by month and year. The apparent annual survival probability of pups (0.47, SE = 0.10) in our study area was greater than the apparent annual survival probability of yearlings and adults (0.27, SE = 0.08). Our results indicate low survival probabilities for a reintroduced population of swift foxes in the BNP and surrounding areas. Management of reintroduced populations and future reintroductions of swift foxes should consider the effects of relative low annual survival on population demography.

An analysis of the survivability of sensor darts in impacts with trees.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prentice, John K. (Sci-Tac, Inc., Boulder, CO.); Gardner, David Randall

2005-07-01

A methodology was developed for computing the probability that the sensor dart for the 'Near Real-Time Site Characterization for Assured HDBT Defeat' Grand-Challenge LDRD project will survive deployment over a forested region. The probability can be decomposed into three approximately independent probabilities that account for forest coverage, branch density and the physics of an impact between the dart and a tree branch. The probability that a dart survives an impact with a tree branch was determined from the deflection induced by the impact. If a dart that was deflected so that it impacted the ground at an angle of attack exceeding a user-specified, threshold value, the dart was assumed to not survive the impact with the branch; otherwise it was assumed to have survived. A computer code was developed for calculating dart angle of attack at impact with the ground and a Monte Carlo scheme was used to calculate the probability distribution of a sensor dart surviving an impact with a branch as a function of branch radius, length, and height from the ground. Both an early prototype design and the current dart design were used in these studies. As a general rule of thumb, it we observed that for reasonably generic trees and for a threshold angle of attack of 5{sup o} (which is conservative for dart survival), the probability of reaching the ground with an angle of attack less than the threshold is on the order of 30% for the prototype dart design and 60% for the current dart design, though these numbers should be treated with some caution.

Neyman, Markov processes and survival analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Grace

2013-07-01

J. Neyman used stochastic processes extensively in his applied work. One example is the Fix and Neyman (F-N) competing risks model (1951) that uses finite homogeneous Markov processes to analyse clinical trials with breast cancer patients. We revisit the F-N model, and compare it with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) formulation for right censored data. The comparison offers a way to generalize the K-M formulation to include risks of recovery and relapses in the calculation of a patient's survival probability. The generalization is to extend the F-N model to a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Closed-form solutions of the survival probability are available in special cases of the nonhomogeneous processes, like the popular multiple decrement model (including the K-M model) and Chiang's staging model, but these models do not consider recovery and relapses while the F-N model does. An analysis of sero-epidemiology current status data with recurrent events is illustrated. Fix and Neyman used Neyman's RBAN (regular best asymptotic normal) estimates for the risks, and provided a numerical example showing the importance of considering both the survival probability and the length of time of a patient living a normal life in the evaluation of clinical trials. The said extension would result in a complicated model and it is unlikely to find analytical closed-form solutions for survival analysis. With ever increasing computing power, numerical methods offer a viable way of investigating the problem.

Acoustic Telemetry Studies of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survival at the Lower Columbia Projects in 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ploskey, Gene R.; Weiland, Mark A.; Hughes, James S.; Zimmerman, Shon A.; Durham, Robin E.; Fischer, Eric S.; Kim, Jina; Townsend, Richard L.; Skalski, John R.; McComas, Roy L.

2008-02-01

The Portland District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers contracted with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to conduct three studies using acoustic telemetry to estimate detection probabilities and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon at three hydropower projects on the lower Columbia River. The primary goals were to estimate detection and survival probabilities based on sampling with JSATS equipment, assess the feasibility of using JSATS for survival studies, and estimate sample sizes needed to obtain a desired level of precision in future studies. The 2006 JSATS arrays usually performed as well or better than radio telemetry arrays in the JDA and TDA tailwaters, and underperformed radio arrays in the BON tailwater, particularly in spring. Most of the probabilities of detection on at least one of all arrays in a tailwater exceeded 80% for each method, which was sufficient to provide confidence in survival estimates. The probability of detection on one of three arrays includes survival and detection probabilities because fish may die or pass all three arrays undetected but alive.

Estimating survival probabilities by exposure levels: utilizing vital statistics and complex survey data with mortality follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Landsman, V; Lou, W Y W; Graubard, B I

2015-05-20

We present a two-step approach for estimating hazard rates and, consequently, survival probabilities, by levels of general categorical exposure. The resulting estimator utilizes three sources of data: vital statistics data and census data are used at the first step to estimate the overall hazard rate for a given combination of gender and age group, and cohort data constructed from a nationally representative complex survey with linked mortality records, are used at the second step to divide the overall hazard rate by exposure levels. We present an explicit expression for the resulting estimator and consider two methods for variance estimation that account for complex multistage sample design: (1) the leaving-one-out jackknife method, and (2) the Taylor linearization method, which provides an analytic formula for the variance estimator. The methods are illustrated with smoking and all-cause mortality data from the US National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, and the proposed estimator is compared with a previously studied crude hazard rate estimator that uses survey data only. The advantages of a two-step approach and possible extensions of the proposed estimator are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Exact calculations of survival probability for diffusion on growing lines, disks, and spheres: The role of dimension.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, Matthew J; Baker, Ruth E

2015-09-07

Unlike standard applications of transport theory, the transport of molecules and cells during embryonic development often takes place within growing multidimensional tissues. In this work, we consider a model of diffusion on uniformly growing lines, disks, and spheres. An exact solution of the partial differential equation governing the diffusion of a population of individuals on the growing domain is derived. Using this solution, we study the survival probability, S(t). For the standard non-growing case with an absorbing boundary, we observe that S(t) decays to zero in the long time limit. In contrast, when the domain grows linearly or exponentially with time, we show that S(t) decays to a constant, positive value, indicating that a proportion of the diffusing substance remains on the growing domain indefinitely. Comparing S(t) for diffusion on lines, disks, and spheres indicates that there are minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of zero growth and minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of fast growth. In contrast, for intermediate growth rates, we observe modest differences in S(t) between different geometries. These differences can be quantified by evaluating the exact expressions derived and presented here.

Effects of mercury on health and first-year survival of free-ranging great egrets (Ardea albus) from southern Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Sepúlveda, M S; Williams, G E; Frederick, P C; Spalding, M G

1999-10-01

The objectives of this study were to determine whether elevated mercury (Hg) concentrations have a negative impact on the health and survival of nestling and juvenile free-ranging great egrets (Ardea albus) from southern Florida. During 1994, when health and survival was monitored in a cohort of young birds with naturally variable concentrations of Hg, packed cell volume was positively correlated with blood Hg concentrations, and high Hg concentration in blood was not related to the probability of surviving during the first 10.5 months of life. During 1995, 70 first-hatched great egret chicks were included in a Hg field-dosing experiment to compare the effects of elevated Hg on health and survival. Birds were dosed while in the nest orally every 2.5 days for 15 days with 0.5 mg of methyl mercury chloride (MeHgCl) for an estimated intake of 1.54 mg MeHgCl/kg food intake. These birds were compared with controls, which received an estimated 0.41 mg MeHgCl/kg food. No differences were observed in health parameters or in the probability of surviving during the first 8 months of age between egrets that were dosed with Hg and those that were not. A likely explanation for the lack of any effects on health and survival between both groups could be that chicks at this age were eliminating most of the dietary Hg through the production of new feathers.

Safeguards systems parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avenhaus, R.; Heil, J.

1979-01-01

In this paper analyses are made of the values of those parameters that characterize the present safeguards system that is applied to a national fuel cycle; those values have to be fixed quantitatively so that all actions of the safeguards authority are specified precisely. The analysis starts by introducing three categories of quantities: The design parameters (number of MBAs, inventory frequency, variance of MUF, verification effort and false-alarm probability) describe those quantities whose values have to be specified before the safeguards system can be implemented. The performance criteria (probability of detection, expected detection time, goal quantity) measure the effectiveness of a safeguards system; and the standards (threshold amount and critical time) characterize the magnitude of the proliferation problem. The means by which the values of the individual design parameters can be determined with the help of the performance criteria; which qualitative arguments can narrow down the arbitrariness of the choice of values of the remaining parameters; and which parameter values have to be fixed more or less arbitrarily, are investigated. As a result of these considerations, which include the optimal allocation of a given inspection effort, the problem of analysing the structure of the safeguards system is reduced to an evaluation of the interplay of only a few parameters, essentially the quality of the measurement system (variance of MUF), verification effort, false-alarm probability, goal quantity and probability of detection

Gap probability - Measurements and models of a pecan orchard

Science.gov (United States)

Strahler, Alan H.; Li, Xiaowen; Moody, Aaron; Liu, YI

1992-01-01

Measurements and models are compared for gap probability in a pecan orchard. Measurements are based on panoramic photographs of 50* by 135 view angle made under the canopy looking upwards at regular positions along transects between orchard trees. The gap probability model is driven by geometric parameters at two levels-crown and leaf. Crown level parameters include the shape of the crown envelope and spacing of crowns; leaf level parameters include leaf size and shape, leaf area index, and leaf angle, all as functions of canopy position.

Modelling survival after treatment of intraocular melanoma using artificial neural networks and Bayes theorem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taktak, Azzam F G; Fisher, Anthony C; Damato, Bertil E

2004-01-01

This paper describes the development of an artificial intelligence (AI) system for survival prediction from intraocular melanoma. The system used artificial neural networks (ANNs) with five input parameters: coronal and sagittal tumour location, anterior tumour margin, largest basal tumour diameter and the cell type. After excluding records with missing data, 2331 patients were included in the study. These were split randomly into training and test sets. Date censorship was applied to the records to deal with patients who were lost to follow-up and patients who died from general causes. Bayes theorem was then applied to the ANN output to construct survival probability curves. A validation set with 34 patients unseen to both training and test sets was used to compare the AI system with Cox's regression (CR) and Kaplan-Meier (KM) analyses. Results showed large differences in the mean 5 year survival probability figures when the number of records with matching characteristics was small. However, as the number of matches increased to >100 the system tended to agree with CR and KM. The validation set was also used to compare the system with a clinical expert in predicting time to metastatic death. The rms error was 3.7 years for the system and 4.3 years for the clinical expert for 15 years survival. For <10 years survival, these figures were 2.7 and 4.2, respectively. We concluded that the AI system can match if not better the clinical expert's prediction. There were significant differences with CR and KM analyses when the number of records was small, but it was not known which model is more accurate

Modelling survival after treatment of intraocular melanoma using artificial neural networks and Bayes theorem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taktak, Azzam F G [Department of Clinical Engineering, Duncan Building, Royal Liverpool University Hospital, Liverpool L7 8XP (United Kingdom); Fisher, Anthony C [Department of Clinical Engineering, Duncan Building, Royal Liverpool University Hospital, Liverpool L7 8XP (United Kingdom); Damato, Bertil E [Department of Ophthalmology, Royal Liverpool University Hospital, Liverpool L7 8XP (United Kingdom)

2004-01-07

This paper describes the development of an artificial intelligence (AI) system for survival prediction from intraocular melanoma. The system used artificial neural networks (ANNs) with five input parameters: coronal and sagittal tumour location, anterior tumour margin, largest basal tumour diameter and the cell type. After excluding records with missing data, 2331 patients were included in the study. These were split randomly into training and test sets. Date censorship was applied to the records to deal with patients who were lost to follow-up and patients who died from general causes. Bayes theorem was then applied to the ANN output to construct survival probability curves. A validation set with 34 patients unseen to both training and test sets was used to compare the AI system with Cox's regression (CR) and Kaplan-Meier (KM) analyses. Results showed large differences in the mean 5 year survival probability figures when the number of records with matching characteristics was small. However, as the number of matches increased to >100 the system tended to agree with CR and KM. The validation set was also used to compare the system with a clinical expert in predicting time to metastatic death. The rms error was 3.7 years for the system and 4.3 years for the clinical expert for 15 years survival. For <10 years survival, these figures were 2.7 and 4.2, respectively. We concluded that the AI system can match if not better the clinical expert's prediction. There were significant differences with CR and KM analyses when the number of records was small, but it was not known which model is more accurate.

Conditional long-term survival following minimally invasive robotic mitral valve repair: a health services perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Efird, Jimmy T; Griffin, William F; Gudimella, Preeti; O'Neal, Wesley T; Davies, Stephen W; Crane, Patricia B; Anderson, Ethan J; Kindell, Linda C; Landrine, Hope; O'Neal, Jason B; Alwair, Hazaim; Kypson, Alan P; Nifong, Wiley L; Chitwood, W Randolph

2015-09-01

Conditional survival is defined as the probability of surviving an additional number of years beyond that already survived. The aim of this study was to compute conditional survival in patients who received a robotically assisted, minimally invasive mitral valve repair procedure (RMVP). Patients who received RMVP with annuloplasty band from May 2000 through April 2011 were included. A 5- and 10-year conditional survival model was computed using a multivariable product-limit method. Non-smoking men (≤65 years) who presented in sinus rhythm had a 96% probability of surviving at least 10 years if they survived their first year following surgery. In contrast, recent female smokers (>65 years) with preoperative atrial fibrillation only had an 11% probability of surviving beyond 10 years if alive after one year post-surgery. In the context of an increasingly managed healthcare environment, conditional survival provides useful information for patients needing to make important treatment decisions, physicians seeking to select patients most likely to benefit long-term following RMVP, and hospital administrators needing to comparatively assess the life-course economic value of high-tech surgical procedures.

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M; Edwards, Thomas C; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M

2014-12-01

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate ( r ) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density ( N ) relate to occurrence probability ( P occ ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P occ , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P occ . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

Invariant probabilities of transition functions

CERN Document Server

Zaharopol, Radu

2014-01-01

The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

Developing a probability-based model of aquifer vulnerability in an agricultural region

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shih-Kai; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Peng, Yi-Huei

2013-04-01

SummaryHydrogeological settings of aquifers strongly influence the regional groundwater movement and pollution processes. Establishing a map of aquifer vulnerability is considerably critical for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a novel probability-based DRASTIC model of aquifer vulnerability in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan, using indicator kriging and to determine various risk categories of contamination potentials based on estimated vulnerability indexes. Categories and ratings of six parameters in the probability-based DRASTIC model were probabilistically characterized according to the parameter classification methods of selecting a maximum estimation probability and calculating an expected value. Moreover, the probability-based estimation and assessment gave us an excellent insight into propagating the uncertainty of parameters due to limited observation data. To examine the prediction capacity of pollutants for the developed probability-based DRASTIC model, medium, high, and very high risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L indicating the anthropogenic groundwater pollution. The analyzed results reveal that the developed probability-based DRASTIC model is capable of predicting high nitrate-N groundwater pollution and characterizing the parameter uncertainty via the probability estimation processes.

Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

Science.gov (United States)

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

1995-01-01

We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitlow, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

1991-01-01

A methodology has been developed which allows the accident probabilities associated with one accident-severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme. The methodology requires that the schemes use a common set of parameters to define the categories. The transfer of accident probabilities is based on the relationships between probability of occurrence and each of the parameters used to define the categories. Because of the lack of historical data describing accident environments in engineering terms, these relationships may be difficult to obtain directly for some parameters. Numerical models or experienced judgement are often needed to obtain the relationships. These relationships, even if they are not exact, allow the accident probability associated with any severity category to be distributed within that category in a manner consistent with accident experience, which in turn will allow the accident probability to be appropriately transferred to a different category scheme

Social class and survival on the S.S. Titanic.

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, W

1986-01-01

Passengers' chances of surviving the sinking of the S.S. Titanic were related to their sex and their social class: females were more likely to survive than males, and the chances of survival declined with social class as measured by the class in which the passenger travelled. The probable reasons for these differences in rates of survival are discussed as are the reasons accepted by the Mersey Committee of Inquiry into the sinking.

Comparative studies of parameters based on the most probable versus an approximate linear extrapolation distance estimates for circular cylindrical absorbing rod

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wassef, W.A.

1982-01-01

Estimates and techniques that are valid to calculate the linear extrapolation distance for an infinitely long circular cylindrical absorbing region are reviewed. Two estimates, in particular, are put into consideration, that is the most probable and the value resulting from an approximate technique based on matching the integral transport equation inside the absorber with the diffusion approximation in the surrounding infinite scattering medium. Consequently, the effective diffusion parameters and the blackness of the cylinder are derived and subjected to comparative studies. A computer code is set up to calculate and compare the different parameters, which is useful in reactor analysis and serves to establish a beneficial estimates that are amenable to direct application to reactor design codes

Network ties and survival

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acheampong, George; Narteh, Bedman; Rand, John

2017-01-01

Poultry farming has been touted as one of the major ways by which poverty can be reduced in low-income economies like Ghana. Yet, anecdotally there is a high failure rate among these poultry farms. This current study seeks to understand the relationship between network ties and survival chances...... of small commercial poultry farms (SCPFs). We utilize data from a 2-year network survey of SCPFs in rural Ghana. The survival of these poultry farms are modelled using a lagged probit model of farms that persisted from 2014 into 2015. We find that network ties are important to the survival chances...... but this probability reduces as the number of industry ties increases but moderation with dynamic capability of the firm reverses this trend. Our findings show that not all network ties aid survival and therefore small commercial poultry farmers need to be circumspect in the network ties they cultivate and develop....

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Association analysis of insulin-like growth factor-1 axis parameters with survival and functional status in nonagenarians of the Leiden Longevity Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van der Spoel, Evie; Rozing, Maarten P; Houwing-Duistermaat, Jeanine J

2015-01-01

Reduced insulin/insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) signaling has been associated with longevity in various model organisms. However, the role of insulin/IGF-1 signaling in human survival remains controversial. The aim of this study was to test whether circulating IGF-1 axis parameters associate...... with old age survival and functional status in nonagenarians from the Leiden Longevity Study. This study examined 858 Dutch nonagenarian (males≥89 years; females≥91 years) siblings from 409 families, without selection on health or demographic characteristics. Nonagenarians were divided over sex...

K-shell ionization probability in energetic nearly symmetric heavy-ion collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tserruya, I.; Schmidt-Boecking, H.; Schuch, R.

1977-01-01

Impact parameter dependent K-x-ray emission probabilities for the projectile and target atoms have been measured in 35 MeV Cl on Cl, Cl on Ti and Cl on Ni collisions. The sum of projectile plus target K-shell ionization probability is taken as a measure of the total 2psigma ionization probability. The 2pπ-2psigma totational coupling model is in clear disagreement with the present results. On the other hand the sum of probabilities is reproduced both in shape and absolute magnitude by the statistical model for inner-shell ionization. The K-shell ionization probability of the higher -Z collision partner is well described by this model including the 2psigma-1ssigma vacancy sharing probability calculated as a function of the impact parameter. (author)

Models for probability and statistical inference theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Stapleton, James H

2007-01-01

This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readersModels for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping.Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses mo...

Representing Uncertainty by Probability and Possibility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

of uncertain parameters. Monte Carlo simulation is readily used for practical calculations. However, an alternative approach is offered by possibility theory making use of possibility distributions such as intervals and fuzzy intervals. This approach is well suited to represent lack of knowledge or imprecision......Uncertain parameters in modeling are usually represented by probability distributions reflecting either the objective uncertainty of the parameters or the subjective belief held by the model builder. This approach is particularly suited for representing the statistical nature or variance...

Flexural strength and the probability of failure of cold isostatic pressed zirconia core ceramics.

Science.gov (United States)

Siarampi, Eleni; Kontonasaki, Eleana; Papadopoulou, Lambrini; Kantiranis, Nikolaos; Zorba, Triantafillia; Paraskevopoulos, Konstantinos M; Koidis, Petros

2012-08-01

The flexural strength of zirconia core ceramics must predictably withstand the high stresses developed during oral function. The in-depth interpretation of strength parameters and the probability of failure during clinical performance could assist the clinician in selecting the optimum materials while planning treatment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the flexural strength based on survival probability and Weibull statistical analysis of 2 zirconia cores for ceramic restorations. Twenty bar-shaped specimens were milled from 2 core ceramics, IPS e.max ZirCAD and Wieland ZENO Zr, and were loaded until fracture according to ISO 6872 (3-point bending test). An independent samples t test was used to assess significant differences of fracture strength (α=.05). Weibull statistical analysis of the flexural strength data provided 2 parameter estimates: Weibull modulus (m) and characteristic strength (σ(0)). The fractured surfaces of the specimens were evaluated by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). The investigation of the crystallographic state of the materials was performed with x-ray diffraction analysis (XRD) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Higher mean flexural strength (Plines zones). Both groups primarily sustained the tetragonal phase of zirconia and a negligible amount of the monoclinic phase. Although both zirconia ceramics presented similar fractographic and crystallographic properties, the higher flexural strength of WZ ceramics was associated with a lower m and more voids in their microstructure. These findings suggest a greater scattering of strength values and a flaw distribution that are expected to increase failure probability. Copyright © 2012 The Editorial Council of the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

2014-01-01

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

Conditional probability of the tornado missile impact given a tornado occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

1982-01-01

Using an approach based on statistical mechanics, an expression for the probability of the first missile strike is developed. The expression depends on two generic parameters (injection probability eta(F) and height distribution psi(Z,F)), which are developed in this study, and one plant specific parameter (number of potential missiles N/sub p/). The expression for the joint probability of simultaneous impact of muitiple targets is also developed. This espression is applicable to calculation of the probability of common cause failure due to tornado missiles. It is shown that the probability of the first missile strike can be determined using a uniform missile distribution model. It is also shown that the conditional probability of the second strike, given the first, is underestimated by the uniform model. The probability of the second strike is greatly increased if the missiles are in clusters large enough to cover both targets

Carbonaceous Survivability on Impact

Science.gov (United States)

Bunch, T. E.; Becker, Luann; Morrison, David (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

In order to gain knowledge about the potential contributions of comets and cosmic dust to the origin of life on Earth, we need to explore the survivability of their potential organic compounds on impact and the formation of secondary products that may have arisen from the chaotic events sustained by the carriers as they fell to Earth. We have performed a series of hypervelocity impact experiments using carbon-bearing impactors (diamond, graphite, kerogens, PAH crystals, and Murchison and Nogoya meteorites) into Al plate targets at velocities - 6 km/s. Estimated peak shock pressures probably did not exceed 120 GPa and peak shock temperatures were probably less than 4000 K for times of nano- to microsecs. Nominal crater dia. are less than one mm. The most significant results of these experiments are the preservation of the higher mass PAHs (e. g., pyrene relative to napthalene) and the formation of additional alkylated PAHs. We have also examined the residues of polystyrene projectiles impacted by a microparticle accelerator into targets at velocities up to 15 km/s. This talk will discuss the results of these experiments and their implications with respect to the survival of carbonaceous deliverables to early Earth. The prospects of survivability of organic molecules on "intact" capture of cosmic dust in space via soft: and hard cosmic dust collectors will also be discussed.

Overview of input parameters for calculation of the probability of a brittle fracture of the reactor pressure vessel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horacek, L.

1994-12-01

The parameters are summarized for a calculation of the probability of brittle fracture of the WWER-440 reactor pressure vessel (RPV). The parameters were selected for 2 basic approaches, viz., one based on the Monte Carlo method and the other on the FORM and SORM methods (First and Second Order Reliability Methods). The approaches were represented by US computer codes VISA-II and OCA-P and by the German ZERBERUS code. The philosophy of the deterministic and probabilistic aspects of the VISA-II code is outlined, and the differences between the US and Czech PWR's are discussed in this context. Briefly described is the partial approach to the evaluation of the WWER type RPV's based on the assessment of their resistance to brittle fracture by fracture mechanics tools and by using the FORM and SORM methods. Attention is paid to the input data for the WWER modification of the VISA-II code. The data are categorized with respect to randomness, i.e. to the stochastic or deterministic nature of their behavior. 18 tabs., 14 refs

Demisability and survivability sensitivity to design-for-demise techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Trisolini, Mirko; Lewis, Hugh G.; Colombo, Camilla

2018-04-01

The paper is concerned with examining the effects that design-for-demise solutions can have not only on the demisability of components, but also on their survivability that is their capability to withstand impacts from space debris. First two models are introduced. A demisability model to predict the behaviour of spacecraft components during the atmospheric re-entry and a survivability model to assess the vulnerability of spacecraft structures against space debris impacts. Two indices that evaluate the level of demisability and survivability are also proposed. The two models are then used to study the sensitivity of the demisability and of the survivability indices as a function of typical design-for-demise options. The demisability and the survivability can in fact be influenced by the same design parameters in a competing fashion that is while the demisability is improved, the survivability is worsened and vice versa. The analysis shows how the design-for-demise solutions influence the demisability and the survivability independently. In addition, the effect that a solution has simultaneously on the two criteria is assessed. Results shows which, among the design-for-demise parameters mostly influence the demisability and the survivability. For such design parameters maps are presented, describing their influence on the demisability and survivability indices. These maps represent a useful tool to quickly assess the level of demisability and survivability that can be expected from a component, when specific design parameters are changed.

Effects of growth rate, size, and light availability on tree survival across life stages: a demographic analysis accounting for missing values and small sample sizes.

Science.gov (United States)

Moustakas, Aristides; Evans, Matthew R

2015-02-28

Plant survival is a key factor in forest dynamics and survival probabilities often vary across life stages. Studies specifically aimed at assessing tree survival are unusual and so data initially designed for other purposes often need to be used; such data are more likely to contain errors than data collected for this specific purpose. We investigate the survival rates of ten tree species in a dataset designed to monitor growth rates. As some individuals were not included in the census at some time points we use capture-mark-recapture methods both to allow us to account for missing individuals, and to estimate relocation probabilities. Growth rates, size, and light availability were included as covariates in the model predicting survival rates. The study demonstrates that tree mortality is best described as constant between years and size-dependent at early life stages and size independent at later life stages for most species of UK hardwood. We have demonstrated that even with a twenty-year dataset it is possible to discern variability both between individuals and between species. Our work illustrates the potential utility of the method applied here for calculating plant population dynamics parameters in time replicated datasets with small sample sizes and missing individuals without any loss of sample size, and including explanatory covariates.

Coyote removal, understory cover, and survival of white-tailed deer neonates: Coyote Control and Fawn Survival

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kilgo, John C. [USDA Forest Service; Southern Research Station, New Ellenton, SC (United States); Vukovich, Mark [USDA Forest Service; Southern Research Station, New Ellenton, SC (United States); Ray, H. Scott [USDA Forest Service, Savannah River; New Ellenton, SC (United States); Shaw, Christopher E. [USDA Forest Service; Southern Research Station, New Ellenton, SC (United States); Ruth, Charles [South Carolina Dept. of Natural Resources, Columbia, SC (United States)

2014-09-01

Predation by coyotes (Canis latrans) on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) neonates has led to reduced recruitment in many deer populations in southeastern North America. This low recruitment combined with liberal antlerless deer harvest has resulted in declines in some deer populations, and consequently, increased interest in coyote population control. We investigated whether neonate survival increased after coyote removal, whether coyote predation on neonates was additive to other mortality sources, and whether understory vegetation density affected neonate survival. We monitored neonate survival for 4 years prior to (2006–2009) and 3 years during (2010–2012) intensive coyote removal on 3 32-km² units on the United States Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site, South Carolina. We removed 474 coyotes (1.63 coyotes/km² per unit per year), reducing coyote abundance by 78% from pre-removal levels. The best model (w_i = 0.927) describing survival probability among 216 radio-collared neonates included a within-year quadratic time trend variable, date of birth, removal treatment, and a varying removal year effect. Under this model, survival differed between pre-treatment and removal periods and it differed among years during the removal period, being >100% greater than pre-treatment survival (0.228) during the first removal year (0.513), similar to pre-treatment survival during the second removal year (0.202), and intermediate during the third removal year (0.431). Despite an initial increase, the overall effect of coyote removal on neonate survival was modest. Mortality rate attributable to coyote predation was lowest during the first removal year (0.357) when survival was greatest, but the mortality rate from all other causes did not differ between the pretreatment period and any year during removals, indicating that coyote predation acted as an additive source of mortality. Survival probability was not related to

Estimates for the probability of survival of electrons in passing through a radiator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.

1977-01-01

Some calculations on the survival of electrons passing through various radiator thicknesses are tabulated. The results of these calculations should serve as a guide for expected attenuation of electrons in the beam when various Pb radiators are inserted

Evolvement simulation of the probability of neutron-initiating persistent fission chain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Zhe; Hong Zhenying

2014-01-01

Background: Probability of neutron-initiating persistent fission chain, which has to be calculated in analysis of critical safety, start-up of reactor, burst waiting time on pulse reactor, bursting time on pulse reactor, etc., is an inherent parameter in a multiplying assembly. Purpose: We aim to derive time-dependent integro-differential equation for such probability in relative velocity space according to the probability conservation, and develop the deterministic code Dynamic Segment Number Probability (DSNP) based on the multi-group S N method. Methods: The reliable convergence of dynamic calculation was analyzed and numerical simulation of the evolvement process of dynamic probability for varying concentration was performed under different initial conditions. Results: On Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Bare Spheres, when the time is long enough, the results of dynamic calculation approach to those of static calculation. The most difference of such results between DSNP and Partisn code is less than 2%. On Baker model, over the range of about 1 μs after the first criticality, the most difference between the dynamic and static calculation is about 300%. As for a super critical system, the finite fission chains decrease and the persistent fission chains increase as the reactivity aggrandizes, the dynamic evolvement curve of initiation probability is close to the static curve within the difference of 5% when the K eff is more than 1.2. The cumulative probability curve also indicates that the difference of integral results between the dynamic calculation and the static calculation decreases from 35% to 5% as the K eff increases. This demonstrated that the ability of initiating a self-sustaining fission chain reaction approaches stabilization, while the former difference (35%) showed the important difference of the dynamic results near the first criticality with the static ones. The DSNP code agrees well with Partisn code. Conclusions: There are large numbers of

Probabilistic Inference: Task Dependency and Individual Differences of Probability Weighting Revealed by Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Boos, Moritz; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kopp, Bruno

2016-01-01

Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities) by two (likelihoods) design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behavior. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted) S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model's success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modeling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

Probabilistic inference: Task dependency and individual differences of probability weighting revealed by hierarchical Bayesian modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moritz eBoos

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities by two (likelihoods design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behaviour. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model’s success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modelling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

Intraseasonal variation in survival and probable causes of mortality in greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus

Science.gov (United States)

Blomberg, Erik J.; Gibson, Daniel; Sedinger, James S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.

2013-01-01

The mortality process is a key component of avian population dynamics, and understanding factors that affect mortality is central to grouse conservation. Populations of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus have declined across their range in western North America. We studied cause-specific mortality of radio-marked sage-grouse in Eureka County, Nevada, USA, during two seasons, nesting (2008-2012) and fall (2008-2010), when survival was known to be lower compared to other times of the year. We used known-fate and cumulative incidence function models to estimate weekly survival rates and cumulative risk of cause-specific mortalities, respectively. These methods allowed us to account for temporal variation in sample size and staggered entry of marked individuals into the sample to obtain robust estimates of survival and cause-specific mortality. We monitored 376 individual sage-grouse during the course of our study, and investigated 87 deaths. Predation was the major source of mortality, and accounted for 90% of all mortalities during our study. During the nesting season (1 April - 31 May), the cumulative risk of predation by raptors (0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and mammals (0.08; 95% CI: 0.03-013) was relatively equal. In the fall (15 August - 31 October), the cumulative risk of mammal predation was greater (M(mam) = 0.12; 95% CI: 0.04-0.19) than either predation by raptors (M(rap) = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.00-0.10) or hunting harvest (M(hunt) = 0.02; 95% CI: 0.0-0.06). During both seasons, we observed relatively few additional sources of mortality (e.g. collision) and observed no evidence of disease-related mortality (e.g. West Nile Virus). In general, we found little evidence for intraseasonal temporal variation in survival, suggesting that the nesting and fall seasons represent biologically meaningful time intervals with respect to sage-grouse survival.

How Does Firm Survival Differ between Business Takeovers and New Venture Start-Ups?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Xi (Guoqian); J.H. Block (Jörn); F. Lasch (Frank); F. Robert (Frank); A.R. Thurik (Roy)

2017-01-01

textabstractFocusing on entrepreneurship entry modes, we investigate two research questions regarding firm survival: how does the survival probability differ between business takeovers and new venture start-ups? And how do the determinants of survival differ between the two entry modes? Using a

Survival and breast relapse in 3834 patients with T1-T2 breast cancer after conserving surgery and adjuvant treatment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Livi, Lorenzo; Paiar, Fabiola; Saieva, Calogero; Scoccianti, Silvia; Dicosmo, Dora; Borghesi, Simona; Agresti, Benedetta; Nosi, Fabiano; Orzalesi, Lorenzo; Santini, Roberto; Barca, Raffaella; Biti, Giampaolo P.

2007-01-01

Purpose: The aim of the present analysis is to determine the long-term results in terms of breast relapse and specific survival in patients treated with conserving surgery and adjuvant treatment for early breast cancer. Methods: From January 1980 to December 2001, 3834 patients with pT1-T2 breast cancer were treated consecutively at the University of Florence. The median age of the patient population was 55 years (range 30-80). All patients were followed for a median of 7.4 years (range 0.6 year to 22.5 years). The crude probability of survival (or local recurrence) was estimated by using Kaplan-Meier method, and survival (or local recurrence) comparisons were carried out using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Results: The Cox regression model by stepwise selection showed some parameters, such as chemotherapy (HR 1.53; CI 1.19-1.95), pT status (HR 1.62, CI 1.31-2.01), positive axillary lymph nodes (HR 1.92, CI 1.66-2.22), and local recurrence (HR 4.58; CI 3.66-5.73), as independent prognostic factors for breast cancer death. Moreover, we found lower rate survival among patients treated before 1991 in comparison to women treated after 1991 (p = 0.0001) probably due to inadequate treatment. For local disease free survival, age at presentation (HR 0.47; CI 0.35-0.63), use of tamoxifen (HR 0.42; CI 0.25-0.71), surgical margins (HR 2.00; CI 1.21-3.30), and chemotherapy (HR 0.53; CI 0.31-0.91) emerged by multivariate analyses as significant breast relapse predictors. Conclusion: In our experience breast conserving surgery followed by adjuvant radiotherapy treatment gives high rates of local control in women with early breast cancer. The use of routinely adjuvant chemotherapy and hormone therapy lowered the local recurrence and probably the modification of therapeutic approach in the last decades also improved the specific survival

Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2015-01-01

of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate......This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....

Spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments and transition probabilities of the 9 low-lying states of the NCl+ cation

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Yuan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2018-03-01

This work calculates the potential energy curves of 9 Λ-S and 28 Ω states of the NCl+ cation. The technique employed is the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with the Davidson correction. The Λ-S states are X2Π, 12Σ+, 14Π, 14Σ+, 14Σ-, 24Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π, which are yielded from the first two dissociation channels of NCl+ cation. The Ω states are generated from these Λ-S states. The 14Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are inverted with the spin-orbit coupling effect included. The 14Σ+, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are very weakly bound, whose well depths are only several-hundred cm- 1. One avoided crossing of PECs occurs between the 12Σ+ and 22Σ+ states. To improve the quality of potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections are included. The potential energies are extrapolated to the complete basis set limit. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are calculated. The transition dipole moments are computed. The Franck-Condon factors, Einstein coefficients, and radiative lifetimes of many transitions are determined. The spectroscopic approaches are proposed for observing these states according to the transition probabilities. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic and vibrational properties is evaluated. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, as well as transition probabilities reported in this paper could be considered to be very reliable.

Hyperprolinemic larvae of the drosophilid fly, Chymomyza costata, survive cryopreservation in liquid nitrogen.

Science.gov (United States)

Kostál, Vladimír; Zahradnícková, Helena; Šimek, Petr

2011-08-09

The larva of the drosophilid fly, Chymomyza costata, is probably the most complex metazoan organism that can survive submergence in liquid nitrogen (-196 °C) in a fully hydrated state. We examined the associations between the physiological and biochemical parameters of differently acclimated larvae and their freeze tolerance. Entering diapause is an essential and sufficient prerequisite for attaining high levels of survival in liquid nitrogen (23% survival to adult stage), although cold acclimation further improves this capacity (62% survival). Profiling of 61 different metabolites identified proline as a prominent compound whose concentration increased from 20 to 147 mM during diapause transition and subsequent cold acclimation. This study provides direct evidence for the essential role of proline in high freeze tolerance. We increased the levels of proline in the larval tissues by feeding larvae proline-augmented diets and found that this simple treatment dramatically improved their freeze tolerance. Cell and tissue survival following exposure to liquid nitrogen was evident in proline-fed nondiapause larvae, and survival to adult stage increased from 0% to 36% in proline-fed diapause-destined larvae. A significant statistical correlation was found between the whole-body concentration of proline, either natural or artificial, and survival to the adult stage in liquid nitrogen for diapause larvae. Differential scanning calorimetry analysis suggested that high proline levels, in combination with a relatively low content of osmotically active water and freeze dehydration, increased the propensity of the remaining unfrozen water to undergo a glass-like transition (vitrification) and thus facilitated the prevention of cryoinjury.

Probability and statistics with integrated software routines

CERN Document Server

Deep, Ronald

2005-01-01

Probability & Statistics with Integrated Software Routines is a calculus-based treatment of probability concurrent with and integrated with statistics through interactive, tailored software applications designed to enhance the phenomena of probability and statistics. The software programs make the book unique.The book comes with a CD containing the interactive software leading to the Statistical Genie. The student can issue commands repeatedly while making parameter changes to observe the effects. Computer programming is an excellent skill for problem solvers, involving design, prototyping, data gathering, testing, redesign, validating, etc, all wrapped up in the scientific method.See also: CD to accompany Probability and Stats with Integrated Software Routines (0123694698)* Incorporates more than 1,000 engaging problems with answers* Includes more than 300 solved examples* Uses varied problem solving methods

Lower Confidence Bounds for the Probabilities of Correct Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radhey S. Singh

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We extend the results of Gupta and Liang (1998, derived for location parameters, to obtain lower confidence bounds for the probability of correctly selecting the t best populations (PCSt simultaneously for all t=1,…,k−1 for the general scale parameter models, where k is the number of populations involved in the selection problem. The application of the results to the exponential and normal probability models is discussed. The implementation of the simultaneous lower confidence bounds for PCSt is illustrated through real-life datasets.

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Joyner, James J., Sr.

2016-01-01

This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

Relative effects of survival and reproduction on the population dynamics of emperor geese

Science.gov (United States)

Schmutz, Joel A.; Rockwell, Robert F.; Petersen, Margaret R.

1997-01-01

Populations of emperor geese (Chen canagica) in Alaska declined sometime between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s and have increased little since. To promote recovery of this species to former levels, managers need to know how much their perturbations of survival and/or reproduction would affect population growth rate (λ). We constructed an individual-based population model to evaluate the relative effect of altering mean values of various survival and reproductive parameters on λ and fall age structure (AS, defined as the proportion of juv), assuming additive rather than compensatory relations among parameters. Altering survival of adults had markedly greater relative effects on λ than did equally proportionate changes in either juvenile survival or reproductive parameters. We found the opposite pattern for relative effects on AS. Due to concerns about bias in the initial parameter estimates used in our model, we used 5 additional sets of parameter estimates with this model structure. We found that estimates of survival based on aerial survey data gathered each fall resulted in models that corresponded more closely to independent estimates of λ than did models that used mark-recapture estimates of survival. This disparity suggests that mark-recapture estimates of survival are biased low. To further explore how parameter estimates affected estimates of λ, we used values of survival and reproduction found in other goose species, and we examined the effect of an hypothesized correlation between an individual's clutch size and the subsequent survival of her young. The rank order of parameters in their relative effects on λ was consistent for all 6 parameter sets we examined. The observed variation in relative effects on λ among the 6 parameter sets is indicative of how relative effects on λ may vary among goose populations. With this knowledge of the relative effects of survival and reproductive parameters on λ, managers can make more informed decisions about

Challenges in the estimation of Net SURvival: The CENSUR working survival group.

Science.gov (United States)

Giorgi, R

2016-10-01

Net survival, the survival probability that would be observed, in a hypothetical world, where the cancer of interest would be the only possible cause of death, is a key indicator in population-based cancer studies. Accounting for mortality due to other causes, it allows cross-country comparisons or trends analysis and provides a useful indicator for public health decision-making. The objective of this study was to show how the creation and formalization of a network comprising established research teams, which already had substantial and complementary experience in both cancer survival analysis and methodological development, make it possible to meet challenges and thus provide more adequate tools, to improve the quality and the comparability of cancer survival data, and to promote methodological transfers in areas of emerging interest. The Challenges in the Estimation of Net SURvival (CENSUR) working survival group is composed of international researchers highly skilled in biostatistics, methodology, and epidemiology, from different research organizations in France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Slovenia, and Canada, and involved in French (FRANCIM) and European (EUROCARE) cancer registry networks. The expected advantages are an interdisciplinary, international, synergistic network capable of addressing problems in public health, for decision-makers at different levels; tools for those in charge of net survival analyses; a common methodology that makes unbiased cross-national comparisons of cancer survival feasible; transfer of methods for net survival estimations to other specific applications (clinical research, occupational epidemiology); and dissemination of results during an international training course. The formalization of the international CENSUR working survival group was motivated by a need felt by scientists conducting population-based cancer research to discuss, develop, and monitor implementation of a common methodology to analyze net survival in order

Simple and compact expressions for neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minakata, Hisakazu; Parke, Stephen J.

2016-01-01

We reformulate perturbation theory for neutrino oscillations in matter with an expansion parameter related to the ratio of the solar to the atmospheric Δm"2 scales. Unlike previous works, we use a renormalized basis in which certain first-order effects are taken into account in the zeroth-order Hamiltonian. We show that the new framework has an exceptional feature that leads to the neutrino oscillation probability in matter with the same structure as in vacuum to first order in the expansion parameter. It facilitates immediate physical interpretation of the formulas, and makes the expressions for the neutrino oscillation probabilities extremely simple and compact. We find, for example, that the ν_e disappearance probability at this order is of a simple two-flavor form with an appropriately identified mixing angle and Δm"2. More generally, all the oscillation probabilities can be written in the universal form with the channel-discrimination coefficient of 0, ±1 or simple functions of θ_2_3. Despite their simple forms they include all order effects of θ_1_3 and all order effects of the matter potential, to first order in our expansion parameter.

Repair-dependent cell radiation survival and transformation: an integrated theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sutherland, John C

2014-01-01

The repair-dependent model of cell radiation survival is extended to include radiation-induced transformations. The probability of transformation is presumed to scale with the number of potentially lethal damages that are repaired in a surviving cell or the interactions of such damages. The theory predicts that at doses corresponding to high survival, the transformation frequency is the sum of simple polynomial functions of dose; linear, quadratic, etc, essentially as described in widely used linear-quadratic expressions. At high doses, corresponding to low survival, the ratio of transformed to surviving cells asymptotically approaches an upper limit. The low dose fundamental- and high dose plateau domains are separated by a downwardly concave transition region. Published transformation data for mammalian cells show the high-dose plateaus predicted by the repair-dependent model for both ultraviolet and ionizing radiation. For the neoplastic transformation experiments that were analyzed, the data can be fit with only the repair-dependent quadratic function. At low doses, the transformation frequency is strictly quadratic, but becomes sigmodial over a wider range of doses. Inclusion of data from the transition region in a traditional linear-quadratic analysis of neoplastic transformation frequency data can exaggerate the magnitude of, or create the appearance of, a linear component. Quantitative analysis of survival and transformation data shows good agreement for ultraviolet radiation; the shapes of the transformation components can be predicted from survival data. For ionizing radiations, both neutrons and x-rays, survival data overestimate the transforming ability for low to moderate doses. The presumed cause of this difference is that, unlike UV photons, a single x-ray or neutron may generate more than one lethal damage in a cell, so the distribution of such damages in the population is not accurately described by Poisson statistics. However, the complete

Conditional survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase in the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasaki, Koji; Kantarjian, Hagop M; Jain, Preetesh; Jabbour, Elias J; Ravandi, Farhad; Konopleva, Marina; Borthakur, Gautam; Takahashi, Koichi; Pemmaraju, Naveen; Daver, Naval; Pierce, Sherry A; O'Brien, Susan M; Cortes, Jorge E

2016-01-15

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) significantly improve survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase (CML-CP). Conditional probability provides survival information in patients who have already survived for a specific period of time after treatment. Cumulative response and survival data from 6 consecutive frontline TKI clinical trials were analyzed. Conditional probability was calculated for failure-free survival (FFS), transformation-free survival (TFS), event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS) according to depth of response within 1 year of the initiation of TKIs, including complete cytogenetic response, major molecular response, and molecular response with a 4-log or 4.5-log reduction. A total of 483 patients with a median follow-up of 99.4 months from the initiation of treatment with TKIs were analyzed. Conditional probabilities of FFS, TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year for patients alive after 12 months of therapy ranged from 92.0% to 99.1%, 98.5% to 100%, 96.2% to 99.6%, and 96.8% to 99.7%, respectively. Conditional FFS for 1 additional year did not improve with a deeper response each year. Conditional probabilities of TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year were maintained at >95% during the period. In the era of TKIs, patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase who survived for a certain number of years maintained excellent clinical outcomes in each age group. Cancer 2016;122:238-248. © 2015 American Cancer Society. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Survival analysis of cancer risk reduction strategies for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurian, Allison W; Sigal, Bronislava M; Plevritis, Sylvia K

2010-01-10

Women with BRCA1/2 mutations inherit high risks of breast and ovarian cancer; options to reduce cancer mortality include prophylactic surgery or breast screening, but their efficacy has never been empirically compared. We used decision analysis to simulate risk-reducing strategies in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and to compare resulting survival probability and causes of death. We developed a Monte Carlo model of breast screening with annual mammography plus magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) from ages 25 to 69 years, prophylactic mastectomy (PM) at various ages, and/or prophylactic oophorectomy (PO) at ages 40 or 50 years in 25-year-old BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. With no intervention, survival probability by age 70 is 53% for BRCA1 and 71% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. The most effective single intervention for BRCA1 mutation carriers is PO at age 40, yielding a 15% absolute survival gain; for BRCA2 mutation carriers, the most effective single intervention is PM, yielding a 7% survival gain if performed at age 40 years. The combination of PM and PO at age 40 improves survival more than any single intervention, yielding 24% survival gain for BRCA1 and 11% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. PM at age 25 instead of age 40 offers minimal incremental benefit (1% to 2%); substituting screening for PM yields a similarly minimal decrement in survival (2% to 3%). Although PM at age 25 plus PO at age 40 years maximizes survival probability, substituting mammography plus MRI screening for PM seems to offer comparable survival. These results may guide women with BRCA1/2 mutations in their choices between prophylactic surgery and breast screening.

Designing a monitoring program to estimate estuarine survival of anadromous salmon smolts: simulating the effect of sample design on inference

Science.gov (United States)

Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

2015-01-01

A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

Some simple applications of probability models to birth intervals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrestha, G.

1987-07-01

An attempt has been made in this paper to apply some simple probability models to birth intervals under the assumption of constant fecundability and varying fecundability among women. The parameters of the probability models are estimated by using the method of moments and the method of maximum likelihood. (author). 9 refs, 2 tabs

Migratory Behavior and Survival of Juvenile Salmonids in the Lower Columbia River, Estuary, and Plume in 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McMichael, Geoffrey A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Harnish, Ryan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Skalski, John R. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Deters, Katherine A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ham, Kenneth D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Townsend, Richard L. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Titzler, P. Scott [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hughes, Michael S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kim, Jin A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Trott, Donna M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2011-09-01

Uncertainty regarding the migratory behavior and survival of juvenile salmonids passing through the lower Columbia River and estuary after negotiating dams on the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) prompted the development and application of the Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS). The JSATS has been used to investigate the survival of juvenile salmonid smolts between Bonneville Dam (river kilometer (rkm) 236) and the mouth of the Columbia River annually since 2004. In 2010, a total of 12,214 juvenile salmonids were implanted with both a passive integrated transponder (PIT) and a JSATS acoustic transmitter. Using detection information from JSATS receiver arrays deployed on dams and in the river, estuary, and plume, the survival probability of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts tagged at John Day Dam was estimated form multiple reaches between rkm 153 and 8.3 during the spring. During summer, the survival probability of subyearling Chinook salmon was estimated for the same reaches. In addition, the influence of routes of passage (e.g., surface spill, deep spill, turbine, juvenile bypass system) through the lower three dams on the Columbia River (John Day, The Dalles, and Bonneville) on juvenile salmonid smolt survival probability from the dams to rkm 153 and then between rkm 153 and 8.3 was examined to increase understanding of the immediate and latent effects of dam passage on juvenile salmon survival. Similar to previous findings, survival probability was relatively high (>0.95) for most groups of juvenile salmonids from the Bonneville Dam tailrace to about rkm 50. Downstream of rkm 50 the survival probability of all species and run types we examined decreased markedly. Steelhead smolts suffered the highest mortality in this lower portion of the Columbia River estuary, with only an estimated 60% of the tagged fish surviving to the mouth of the river. In contrast, yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon smolts survived to the mouth

Clustered survival data with left-truncation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eriksson, Frank; Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

2015-01-01

Left-truncation occurs frequently in survival studies, and it is well known how to deal with this for univariate survival times. However, there are few results on how to estimate dependence parameters and regression effects in semiparametric models for clustered survival data with delayed entry....... Surprisingly, existing methods only deal with special cases. In this paper, we clarify different kinds of left-truncation and suggest estimators for semiparametric survival models under specific truncation schemes. The large-sample properties of the estimators are established. Small-sample properties...

Repair models of cell survival and corresponding computer program for survival curve fitting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen Xun; Hu Yiwei

1992-01-01

Some basic concepts and formulations of two repair models of survival, the incomplete repair (IR) model and the lethal-potentially lethal (LPL) model, are introduced. An IBM-PC computer program for survival curve fitting with these models was developed and applied to fit the survivals of human melanoma cells HX118 irradiated at different dose rates. Comparison was made between the repair models and two non-repair models, the multitar get-single hit model and the linear-quadratic model, in the fitting and analysis of the survival-dose curves. It was shown that either IR model or LPL model can fit a set of survival curves of different dose rates with same parameters and provide information on the repair capacity of cells. These two mathematical models could be very useful in quantitative study on the radiosensitivity and repair capacity of cells

The statistical treatment of cell survival data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boag, J.W.

1975-01-01

The paper considers the sources of experimental error in cell survival experiments and discusses in simple terms how these combine to influence the accuracy of single points and the parameters of complete survival curves. Cell sampling and medium-dilution errors are discussed at length and one way of minimizing the former is examined. The Monte-Carlo method of estimating the distribution of derived parameters in small samples is recommended and illustrated. (author)

Recommendations for the tuning of rare event probability estimators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balesdent, Mathieu; Morio, Jérôme; Marzat, Julien

2015-01-01

Being able to accurately estimate rare event probabilities is a challenging issue in order to improve the reliability of complex systems. Several powerful methods such as importance sampling, importance splitting or extreme value theory have been proposed in order to reduce the computational cost and to improve the accuracy of extreme probability estimation. However, the performance of these methods is highly correlated with the choice of tuning parameters, which are very difficult to determine. In order to highlight recommended tunings for such methods, an empirical campaign of automatic tuning on a set of representative test cases is conducted for splitting methods. It allows to provide a reduced set of tuning parameters that may lead to the reliable estimation of rare event probability for various problems. The relevance of the obtained result is assessed on a series of real-world aerospace problems

Measurement of the ionization probability of the 1s sigma molecular orbital in half a collision at zero impact parameter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chemin, J.F.; Andriamonje, S.; Guezet, D.; Thibaud, J.P.; Aguer, P.; Hannachi, F.; Bruandet, J.F.

1984-01-01

We have measured, for the first time, the ionization probability Psub(1s sigma) of the 1s sigma molecular orbital in the way into a nuclear reaction (in half a collision at zero impact parameter) in a near symmetric collision 58 Ni + 54 Fe at 230 MeV leads to a compound nucleus of 112 Xe highly excited which decays first by sequential emission of charged particles and then by sequential emission of gamma rays. The determination of Psub(1s sigma) is based on the coincidence measurement between X-rays and γ-rays and the Doppler shift method is used to discrimine the ''atomic'' and ''nuclear'' X-rays

Partitioning of excess mortality in population-based cancer patient survival studies using flexible parametric survival models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eloranta Sandra

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Relative survival is commonly used for studying survival of cancer patients as it captures both the direct and indirect contribution of a cancer diagnosis on mortality by comparing the observed survival of the patients to the expected survival in a comparable cancer-free population. However, existing methods do not allow estimation of the impact of isolated conditions (e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality on the total excess mortality. For this purpose we extend flexible parametric survival models for relative survival, which use restricted cubic splines for the baseline cumulative excess hazard and for any time-dependent effects. Methods In the extended model we partition the excess mortality associated with a diagnosis of cancer through estimating a separate baseline excess hazard function for the outcomes under investigation. This is done by incorporating mutually exclusive background mortality rates, stratified by the underlying causes of death reported in the Swedish population, and by introducing cause of death as a time-dependent effect in the extended model. This approach thereby enables modeling of temporal trends in e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality simultaneously. Furthermore, we illustrate how the results from the proposed model can be used to derive crude probabilities of death due to the component parts, i.e., probabilities estimated in the presence of competing causes of death. Results The method is illustrated with examples where the total excess mortality experienced by patients diagnosed with breast cancer is partitioned into excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality. Conclusions The proposed method can be used to simultaneously study disease patterns and temporal trends for various causes of cancer-consequent deaths. Such information should be of interest for patients and clinicians as one way of improving prognosis after cancer is

Quantifying Uranium Isotope Ratios Using Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry: The Influence of Laser Parameters on Relative Ionization Probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Isselhardt, Brett H. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2011-09-01

Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry (RIMS) has been developed as a method to measure relative uranium isotope abundances. In this approach, RIMS is used as an element-selective ionization process to provide a distinction between uranium atoms and potential isobars without the aid of chemical purification and separation. We explore the laser parameters critical to the ionization process and their effects on the measured isotope ratio. Specifically, the use of broad bandwidth lasers with automated feedback control of wavelength was applied to the measurement of ²³⁵U/²³⁸U ratios to decrease laser-induced isotopic fractionation. By broadening the bandwidth of the first laser in a 3-color, 3-photon ionization process from a bandwidth of 1.8 GHz to about 10 GHz, the variation in sequential relative isotope abundance measurements decreased from >10% to less than 0.5%. This procedure was demonstrated for the direct interrogation of uranium oxide targets with essentially no sample preparation. A rate equation model for predicting the relative ionization probability has been developed to study the effect of variation in laser parameters on the measured isotope ratio. This work demonstrates that RIMS can be used for the robust measurement of uranium isotope ratios.

Mathematical Methods in Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life

CERN Document Server

Huber, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir

2008-01-01

Reliability and survival analysis are important applications of stochastic mathematics (probability, statistics and stochastic processes) that are usually covered separately in spite of the similarity of the involved mathematical theory. This title aims to redress this situation: it includes 21 chapters divided into four parts: Survival analysis, Reliability, Quality of life, and Related topics. Many of these chapters were presented at the European Seminar on Mathematical Methods for Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life in 2006.

Bayesian estimation of core-melt probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, H.W.

1984-01-01

A very simple application of the canonical Bayesian algorithm is made to the problem of estimation of the probability of core melt in a commercial power reactor. An approximation to the results of the Rasmussen study on reactor safety is used as the prior distribution, and the observation that there has been no core melt yet is used as the single experiment. The result is a substantial decrease in the mean probability of core melt--factors of 2 to 4 for reasonable choices of parameters. The purpose is to illustrate the procedure, not to argue for the decrease

What probabilities tell about quantum systems, with application to entropy and entanglement

CERN Document Server

Myers, John M

2010-01-01

The use of parameters to describe an experimenter's control over the devices used in an experiment is familiar in quantum physics, for example in connection with Bell inequalities. Parameters are also interesting in a different but related context, as we noticed when we proved a formal separation in quantum mechanics between linear operators and the probabilities that these operators generate. In comparing an experiment against its description by a density operator and detection operators, one compares tallies of experimental outcomes against the probabilities generated by the operators but not directly against the operators. Recognizing that the accessibility of operators to experimental tests is only indirect, via probabilities, motivates us to ask what probabilities tell us about operators, or, put more precisely, “what combinations of a parameterized density operator and parameterized detection operators generate any given set of parametrized probabilities?”

Effect of gamma radiation on the growth, survival, hematology and histological parameters of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) larvae

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oujifard, Amin, E-mail: oujifard.amin@gmail.com [Fisheries Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Persian Gulf University, Borazjan, Bushehr (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Amiri, Roghayeh [Department of Veterinary, Agricultural Medical and Industrial Research School, Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, AEOI, Karaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Shahhosseini, Gholamreza [Fisheries Department, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, TarbiatModares University, Noor, Mazandaran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Davoodi, Reza [Fisheries Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Persian Gulf University, Borazjan, Bushehr (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Moghaddam, Jamshid Amiri [Fisheries Department, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, TarbiatModares University, Noor, Mazandaran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2015-08-15

Highlights: • Incrementing of gamma radiation reveals the negative effects on fish larvae. • Radiation adversely affected the weight, blood cells and intestinal morphology of the larvae. • No mortality was observed at low dosage of gamma radiation on fish larvae. - Abstract: Effects of low (1, 2.5 and 5 Gy) and high doses (10, 20 and 40 Gy) of gamma radiation were examined on the growth, survival, blood parameters and morphological changes of the intestines of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) larvae (103 ± 20 mg) after 12 weeks of exposure. Negative effects of gamma radiation on growth and survival were observed as radiation level and time increased. Changes were well documented at 10 and 20 Gy. All the fish were dead at the dose of 40 Gy. In all the treatments, levels of red blood cells (RBC), hematocrit (HCT) and hemoglobin (HB) were significantly (P < 0.05) declined as the irradiation levels increased, whereas the amount of mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH) did not change. No significant differences (P > 0.05) were found in the levels of white blood cells (WBC), lymphocytes and monocytes. Destruction of the intestinal epithelium cells was indicated as the irradiation levels increased to 1 Gy and above. The highest levels of growth, survival, specific growth rate (SGR), condition factor (CF) and protein efficiency rate (PER) were obtained in the control treatment. The results showed that gamma rays can be a potential means for damaging rainbow trout cells.

Effect of gamma radiation on the growth, survival, hematology and histological parameters of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) larvae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oujifard, Amin; Amiri, Roghayeh; Shahhosseini, Gholamreza; Davoodi, Reza; Moghaddam, Jamshid Amiri

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Incrementing of gamma radiation reveals the negative effects on fish larvae. • Radiation adversely affected the weight, blood cells and intestinal morphology of the larvae. • No mortality was observed at low dosage of gamma radiation on fish larvae. - Abstract: Effects of low (1, 2.5 and 5 Gy) and high doses (10, 20 and 40 Gy) of gamma radiation were examined on the growth, survival, blood parameters and morphological changes of the intestines of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) larvae (103 ± 20 mg) after 12 weeks of exposure. Negative effects of gamma radiation on growth and survival were observed as radiation level and time increased. Changes were well documented at 10 and 20 Gy. All the fish were dead at the dose of 40 Gy. In all the treatments, levels of red blood cells (RBC), hematocrit (HCT) and hemoglobin (HB) were significantly (P < 0.05) declined as the irradiation levels increased, whereas the amount of mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH) did not change. No significant differences (P > 0.05) were found in the levels of white blood cells (WBC), lymphocytes and monocytes. Destruction of the intestinal epithelium cells was indicated as the irradiation levels increased to 1 Gy and above. The highest levels of growth, survival, specific growth rate (SGR), condition factor (CF) and protein efficiency rate (PER) were obtained in the control treatment. The results showed that gamma rays can be a potential means for damaging rainbow trout cells

Combining Gene Signatures Improves Prediction of Breast Cancer Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xi; Naume, Bjørn; Langerød, Anita; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Lingjærde, Ole Christian

2011-01-01

Background Several gene sets for prediction of breast cancer survival have been derived from whole-genome mRNA expression profiles. Here, we develop a statistical framework to explore whether combination of the information from such sets may improve prediction of recurrence and breast cancer specific death in early-stage breast cancers. Microarray data from two clinically similar cohorts of breast cancer patients are used as training (n = 123) and test set (n = 81), respectively. Gene sets from eleven previously published gene signatures are included in the study. Principal Findings To investigate the relationship between breast cancer survival and gene expression on a particular gene set, a Cox proportional hazards model is applied using partial likelihood regression with an L2 penalty to avoid overfitting and using cross-validation to determine the penalty weight. The fitted models are applied to an independent test set to obtain a predicted risk for each individual and each gene set. Hierarchical clustering of the test individuals on the basis of the vector of predicted risks results in two clusters with distinct clinical characteristics in terms of the distribution of molecular subtypes, ER, PR status, TP53 mutation status and histological grade category, and associated with significantly different survival probabilities (recurrence: p = 0.005; breast cancer death: p = 0.014). Finally, principal components analysis of the gene signatures is used to derive combined predictors used to fit a new Cox model. This model classifies test individuals into two risk groups with distinct survival characteristics (recurrence: p = 0.003; breast cancer death: p = 0.001). The latter classifier outperforms all the individual gene signatures, as well as Cox models based on traditional clinical parameters and the Adjuvant! Online for survival prediction. Conclusion Combining the predictive strength of multiple gene signatures improves prediction of breast

Combining gene signatures improves prediction of breast cancer survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xi Zhao

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several gene sets for prediction of breast cancer survival have been derived from whole-genome mRNA expression profiles. Here, we develop a statistical framework to explore whether combination of the information from such sets may improve prediction of recurrence and breast cancer specific death in early-stage breast cancers. Microarray data from two clinically similar cohorts of breast cancer patients are used as training (n = 123 and test set (n = 81, respectively. Gene sets from eleven previously published gene signatures are included in the study. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To investigate the relationship between breast cancer survival and gene expression on a particular gene set, a Cox proportional hazards model is applied using partial likelihood regression with an L2 penalty to avoid overfitting and using cross-validation to determine the penalty weight. The fitted models are applied to an independent test set to obtain a predicted risk for each individual and each gene set. Hierarchical clustering of the test individuals on the basis of the vector of predicted risks results in two clusters with distinct clinical characteristics in terms of the distribution of molecular subtypes, ER, PR status, TP53 mutation status and histological grade category, and associated with significantly different survival probabilities (recurrence: p = 0.005; breast cancer death: p = 0.014. Finally, principal components analysis of the gene signatures is used to derive combined predictors used to fit a new Cox model. This model classifies test individuals into two risk groups with distinct survival characteristics (recurrence: p = 0.003; breast cancer death: p = 0.001. The latter classifier outperforms all the individual gene signatures, as well as Cox models based on traditional clinical parameters and the Adjuvant! Online for survival prediction. CONCLUSION: Combining the predictive strength of multiple gene signatures improves

On estimating the fracture probability of nuclear graphite components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srinivasan, Makuteswara

2008-01-01

The properties of nuclear grade graphites exhibit anisotropy and could vary considerably within a manufactured block. Graphite strength is affected by the direction of alignment of the constituent coke particles, which is dictated by the forming method, coke particle size, and the size, shape, and orientation distribution of pores in the structure. In this paper, a Weibull failure probability analysis for components is presented using the American Society of Testing Materials strength specification for nuclear grade graphites for core components in advanced high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. The risk of rupture (probability of fracture) and survival probability (reliability) of large graphite blocks are calculated for varying and discrete values of service tensile stresses. The limitations in these calculations are discussed from considerations of actual reactor environmental conditions that could potentially degrade the specification properties because of damage due to complex interactions between irradiation, temperature, stress, and variability in reactor operation

A formalism to generate probability distributions for performance-assessment modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplan, P.G.

1990-01-01

A formalism is presented for generating probability distributions of parameters used in performance-assessment modeling. The formalism is used when data are either sparse or nonexistent. The appropriate distribution is a function of the known or estimated constraints and is chosen to maximize a quantity known as Shannon's informational entropy. The formalism is applied to a parameter used in performance-assessment modeling. The functional form of the model that defines the parameter, data from the actual field site, and natural analog data are analyzed to estimate the constraints. A beta probability distribution of the example parameter is generated after finding four constraints. As an example of how the formalism is applied to the site characterization studies of Yucca Mountain, the distribution is generated for an input parameter in a performance-assessment model currently used to estimate compliance with disposal of high-level radioactive waste in geologic repositories, 10 CFR 60.113(a)(2), commonly known as the ground water travel time criterion. 8 refs., 2 figs

Survival behavior in the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model with a randomly switching reaction rate.

Science.gov (United States)

West, Robert; Mobilia, Mauro; Rucklidge, Alastair M

2018-02-01

We study the influence of a randomly switching reproduction-predation rate on the survival behavior of the nonspatial cyclic Lotka-Volterra model, also known as the zero-sum rock-paper-scissors game, used to metaphorically describe the cyclic competition between three species. In large and finite populations, demographic fluctuations (internal noise) drive two species to extinction in a finite time, while the species with the smallest reproduction-predation rate is the most likely to be the surviving one (law of the weakest). Here we model environmental (external) noise by assuming that the reproduction-predation rate of the strongest species (the fastest to reproduce and predate) in a given static environment randomly switches between two values corresponding to more and less favorable external conditions. We study the joint effect of environmental and demographic noise on the species survival probabilities and on the mean extinction time. In particular, we investigate whether the survival probabilities follow the law of the weakest and analyze their dependence on the external noise intensity and switching rate. Remarkably, when, on average, there is a finite number of switches prior to extinction, the survival probability of the predator of the species whose reaction rate switches typically varies nonmonotonically with the external noise intensity (with optimal survival about a critical noise strength). We also outline the relationship with the case where all reaction rates switch on markedly different time scales.

Survival behavior in the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model with a randomly switching reaction rate

Science.gov (United States)

West, Robert; Mobilia, Mauro; Rucklidge, Alastair M.

2018-02-01

We study the influence of a randomly switching reproduction-predation rate on the survival behavior of the nonspatial cyclic Lotka-Volterra model, also known as the zero-sum rock-paper-scissors game, used to metaphorically describe the cyclic competition between three species. In large and finite populations, demographic fluctuations (internal noise) drive two species to extinction in a finite time, while the species with the smallest reproduction-predation rate is the most likely to be the surviving one (law of the weakest). Here we model environmental (external) noise by assuming that the reproduction-predation rate of the strongest species (the fastest to reproduce and predate) in a given static environment randomly switches between two values corresponding to more and less favorable external conditions. We study the joint effect of environmental and demographic noise on the species survival probabilities and on the mean extinction time. In particular, we investigate whether the survival probabilities follow the law of the weakest and analyze their dependence on the external noise intensity and switching rate. Remarkably, when, on average, there is a finite number of switches prior to extinction, the survival probability of the predator of the species whose reaction rate switches typically varies nonmonotonically with the external noise intensity (with optimal survival about a critical noise strength). We also outline the relationship with the case where all reaction rates switch on markedly different time scales.

Influence of dose distribution homogeneity on the tumor control probability in heavy-ion radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wen Xiaoqiong; Li Qiang; Zhou Guangming; Li Wenjian; Wei Zengquan

2001-01-01

In order to estimate the influence of the un-uniform dose distribution on the clinical treatment result, the Influence of dose distribution homogeneity on the tumor control probability was investigated. Basing on the formula deduced previously for survival fraction of cells irradiated by the un-uniform heavy-ion irradiation field and the theory of tumor control probability, the tumor control probability was calculated for a tumor mode exposed to different dose distribution homogeneity. The results show that the tumor control probability responding to the same total dose will decrease if the dose distribution homogeneity gets worse. In clinical treatment, the dose distribution homogeneity should be better than 95%

Clinical Features in a Danish Population-Based Cohort of Probable Multiple System Atrophy Patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Starhof, Charlotte; Korbo, Lise; Lassen, Christina Funch

2016-01-01

Background: Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a rare, sporadic and progressive neurodegenerative disorder. We aimed to describe the clinical features of Danish probable MSA patients, evaluate their initial response to dopaminergic therapy and examine mortality. Methods: From the Danish National...... the criteria for probable MSA. We recorded clinical features, examined differences by MSA subtype and used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to examine mortality. Results: The mean age at onset of patients with probable MSA was 60.2 years (range 36-75 years) and mean time to wheelchair dependency was 4.7 years...

Análisis de supervivencia en presencia de riesgos competitivos: estimadores de la probabilidad de suceso Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Llorca

2004-10-01

Full Text Available Objetivo: Mostrar el efecto de los riesgos competitivos de muerte en el análisis de supervivencia. Métodos: Se presenta un ejemplo sobre la supervivencia libre de rechazo tras un trasplante cardíaco, en el que la muerte antes de desarrollar el rechazo actúa como riesgo competitivo. Mediante una simulación se comparan el estimador de Kaplan-Meier y el modelo de decrementos múltiples. Resultados: El método de Kaplan-Meier sobrestima el riesgo de rechazo. A continuación, se expone la aplicación del modelo de decrementos múltiples para el análisis de acontecimientos secundarios (en el ejemplo, la muerte tras el rechazo. Finalmente, se discuten las asunciones propias del método de Kaplan-Meier y las razones por las que no puede ser aplicado en presencia de riesgos competitivos. Conclusiones: El análisis de supervivencia debe ajustarse por los riesgos competitivos de muerte para evitar la sobrestimación del riesgo de fallo que se produce con el método de Kaplan-Meier.Objective: To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. Method: We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. Results: The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection. Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Conclusions: Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Factors influencing survival and mark retention in postmetamorphic boreal chorus frogs

Science.gov (United States)

Swanson, Jennifer E; Bailey, Larissa L.; Muths, Erin L.; Funk, W. Chris

2013-01-01

The ability to track individual animals is crucial in many field studies and often requires applying marks to captured individuals. Toe clipping has historically been a standard marking method for wild amphibian populations, but more recent marking methods include visual implant elastomer and photo identification. Unfortunately, few studies have investigated the influence and effectiveness of marking methods for recently metamorphosed individuals and as a result little is known about this life-history phase for most amphibians. Our focus was to explore survival probabilities, mark retention, and mark migration in postmetamorphic Boreal Chorus Frogs (Psuedacris maculata) in a laboratory setting. One hundred forty-seven individuals were assigned randomly to two treatment groups or a control group. Frogs in the first treatment group were marked with visual implant elastomer, while frogs in the second treatment group were toe clipped. Growth and mortality were recorded for one year and resulting data were analyzed using known-fate models in Program MARK. Model selection results suggested that survival probabilities of frogs varied with time and showed some variation among marking treatments. We found that frogs with multiple toes clipped on the same foot had lower survival probabilities than individuals in other treatments, but individuals can be marked by clipping a single toe on two different feet without any mark loss or negative survival effects. Individuals treated with visual implant elastomer had a mark migration rate of 4% and mark loss rate of 6%, and also showed very little negative survival impacts relative to control individuals.

Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

2004-01-01

We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

Contrasting patterns of nest survival and postfledging survival in ovenbirds and Acadian flycatchers in Missouri forest fragments

Science.gov (United States)

Julianna M. A. Jenkins; Frank R. Thompson; John Faaborg

2016-01-01

We can improve our ability to assess population viability and forecast population growth under different scenarios by understanding factors that limit population parameters in each stage of the annual cycle. Postfledging mortality rates may be as variable as nest survival across regions and fragmentation gradients, although factors that negatively impact nest survival...

Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

Factors Affecting Route Selection and Survival of Steelhead Kelts at Snake River Dams in 2012 and 2013

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harnish, Ryan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Colotelo, Alison HA [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Li, Xinya [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ham, Kenneth D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-12-01

In 2012 and 2013, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory conducted a study that summarized the passage proportions and route-specific survival rates of steelhead kelts that passed through Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) dams. To accomplish this, a total of 811 steelhead kelts were tagged with Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) transmitters. Acoustic receivers, both autonomous and cabled, were deployed throughout the FCRPS to monitor the downstream movements of tagged-kelts. Kelts were also tagged with Passive Integrated Transponder tags to monitor passage through juvenile bypass systems and detect returning fish. The current study evaluated data collected in 2012 and 2013 to identify individual, behavioral, environmental and dam operation variables that were related to passage and survival of steelhead kelts that passed through FCRPS dams. Bayesian model averaging of multivariable logistic regression models was used to identify the environmental, temporal, operational, individual, and behavioral variables that had the highest probability of influencing the route of passage and the route-specific survival probabilities for kelts that passed Lower Granite (LGR), Little Goose (LGS), and Lower Monumental (LMN) dams in 2012 and 2013. The posterior probabilities of the best models for predicting route of passage ranged from 0.106 for traditional spill at LMN to 0.720 for turbine passage at LGS. Generally, the behavior (depth and near-dam searching activity) of kelts in the forebay appeared to have the greatest influence on their route of passage. Shallower-migrating kelts had a higher probability of passing via the weir and deeper-migrating kelts had a higher probability of passing via the JBS and turbines than other routes. Kelts that displayed a higher level of near-dam searching activity had a higher probability of passing via the spillway weir and those that did less near-dam searching had a higher probability of passing via the JBS and

Calculation of magnetization curves and probability distribution for monoclinic and uniaxial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sobh, Hala A.; Aly, Samy H.; Yehia, Sherif

2013-01-01

We present the application of a simple classical statistical mechanics-based model to selected monoclinic and hexagonal model systems. In this model, we treat the magnetization as a classical vector whose angular orientation is dictated by the laws of equilibrium classical statistical mechanics. We calculate for these anisotropic systems, the magnetization curves, energy landscapes and probability distribution for different sets of relevant parameters and magnetic fields of different strengths and directions. Our results demonstrate a correlation between the most probable orientation of the magnetization vector, the system's parameters, and the external magnetic field. -- Highlights: ► We calculate magnetization curves and probability angular distribution of the magnetization. ► The magnetization curves are consistent with probability results for the studied systems. ► Monoclinic and hexagonal systems behave differently due to their different anisotropies

Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

OpenAIRE

Saad, Emad

2013-01-01

Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

COUNTRY-LEVEL SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS ASSOCIATED WITH SURVIVAL PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A CENTENARIAN AMONG OLDER EUROPEAN ADULTS: GENDER INEQUALITY, MALE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND PROPORTIONS OF WOMEN IN PARLIAMENTS.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jong In; Kim, Gukbin

2017-03-01

This study confirms an association between survival probability of becoming a centenarian (SPBC) for those aged 65 to 69 and country-level socioeconomic indicators in Europe: the gender inequality index (GII), male labour force participation (MLP) rates and proportions of seats held by women in national parliaments (PWP). The analysis was based on SPBC data from 34 countries obtained from the United Nations (UN). Country-level socioeconomic indicator data were obtained from the UN and World Bank databases. The associations between socioeconomic indicators and SPBC were assessed using correlation coefficients and multivariate regression models. The findings show significant correlations between the SPBC for women and men aged 65 to 69 and country-level socioeconomic indicators: GII (r=-0.674, p=0.001), MLP (r=0.514, p=0.002) and PWP (r=0.498, p=0.003). The SPBC predictors for women and men were lower GIIs and higher MLP and PWP (R 2=0.508, p=0.001). Country-level socioeconomic indicators appear to have an important effect on the probability of becoming a centenarian in European adults aged 65 to 69. Country-level gender equality policies in European counties may decrease the risk of unhealthy old age and increase longevity in elders through greater national gender equality; disparities in GII and other country-level socioeconomic indicators impact longevity probability. National longevity strategies should target country-level gender inequality.

Drawing Nomograms with R: applications to categorical outcome and survival data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhongheng; Kattan, Michael W

2017-05-01

Outcome prediction is a major task in clinical medicine. The standard approach to this work is to collect a variety of predictors and build a model of appropriate type. The model is a mathematical equation that connects the outcome of interest with the predictors. A new patient with given clinical characteristics can be predicted for outcome with this model. However, the equation describing the relationship between predictors and outcome is often complex and the computation requires software for practical use. There is another method called nomogram which is a graphical calculating device allowing an approximate graphical computation of a mathematical function. In this article, we describe how to draw nomograms for various outcomes with nomogram() function. Binary outcome is fit by logistic regression model and the outcome of interest is the probability of the event of interest. Ordinal outcome variable is also discussed. Survival analysis can be fit with parametric model to fully describe the distributions of survival time. Statistics such as the median survival time, survival probability up to a specific time point are taken as the outcome of interest.

In-season retail sales forecasting using survival models

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Retail sales forecasting, survival analysis, time series analysis, Holt's smoothing .... where fx(t) is the probability density function of the future lifetime, Tx, of a .... Adjustments were made to the shape of the smoothed mortality rates in light of new.

Optimum parameters in a model for tumour control probability, including interpatient heterogeneity: evaluation of the log-normal distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keall, P J; Webb, S

2007-01-01

The heterogeneity of human tumour radiation response is well known. Researchers have used the normal distribution to describe interpatient tumour radiosensitivity. However, many natural phenomena show a log-normal distribution. Log-normal distributions are common when mean values are low, variances are large and values cannot be negative. These conditions apply to radiosensitivity. The aim of this work was to evaluate the log-normal distribution to predict clinical tumour control probability (TCP) data and to compare the results with the homogeneous (δ-function with single α-value) and normal distributions. The clinically derived TCP data for four tumour types-melanoma, breast, squamous cell carcinoma and nodes-were used to fit the TCP models. Three forms of interpatient tumour radiosensitivity were considered: the log-normal, normal and δ-function. The free parameters in the models were the radiosensitivity mean, standard deviation and clonogenic cell density. The evaluation metric was the deviance of the maximum likelihood estimation of the fit of the TCP calculated using the predicted parameters to the clinical data. We conclude that (1) the log-normal and normal distributions of interpatient tumour radiosensitivity heterogeneity more closely describe clinical TCP data than a single radiosensitivity value and (2) the log-normal distribution has some theoretical and practical advantages over the normal distribution. Further work is needed to test these models on higher quality clinical outcome datasets

Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

2015-07-01

Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conditional survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Michael Boe; Pedersen, Niels Tinggaard; Christensen, Bjarne E

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND: Prognosis of lymphoma patients is usually estimated at the time of diagnosis and the estimates are guided by the International Prognostic Index (IPI). However, conditional survival estimates are more informative clinically, as they consider those patients only who have already survive...... survival probability provides more accurate prognostic information than the conventional survival rate estimated from the time of diagnosis.......BACKGROUND: Prognosis of lymphoma patients is usually estimated at the time of diagnosis and the estimates are guided by the International Prognostic Index (IPI). However, conditional survival estimates are more informative clinically, as they consider those patients only who have already survived...... a period of time after treatment. Conditional survival data have not been reported for lymphoma patients. METHODS: Conditional survival was estimated for 1209 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) from the population-based LYFO registry of the Danish Lymphoma Group. The Kaplan-Meier method...

Volumetric parameters on FDG PET can predict early intrahepatic recurrence-free survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after curative surgical resection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jeong Won [Catholic Kwandong University College of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Incheon (Korea, Republic of); Hwang, Sang Hyun; Kim, Hyun Jeong; Kim, Dongwoo; Cho, Arthur; Yun, Mijin [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2017-11-15

This study assessed the prognostic values of volumetric parameters on {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in predicting early intrahepatic recurrence-free survival (RFS) after curative resection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A retrospective analysis was performed on 242 patients with HCC who underwent staging FDG PET and subsequent curative surgical resection. The tumor-to-non-tumorous liver uptake ratio, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) of the HCC lesions on PET were measured. The prognostic values of clinical factors and PET parameters for predicting overall RFS, overall survival (OS), extrahepatic RFS, and early and late intrahepatic RFS were assessed. The median follow-up period was 54.7 months, during which 110 patients (45.5%) experienced HCC recurrence and 62 (25.6%) died. Patients with extrahepatic and early intrahepatic recurrence showed worse OS than did those with no recurrence or late intrahepatic recurrence (p < 0.001). Serum bilirubin level, MTV, and TLG were independent prognostic factors for overall RFS and OS (p < 0.05). Only MTV and TLG were prognostic for extrahepatic RFS (p < 0.05). Serum alpha-fetoprotein and bilirubin levels, MTV, and TLG were prognostic for early intrahepatic RFS (p < 0.05) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) positivity and serum albumin level were independently prognostic for late intrahepatic RFS (p < 0.05). Intrahepatic recurrence showed different prognoses according to the time interval of recurrence in which early recurrence had as poor survival as extrahepatic recurrence. MTV and TLG on initial staging PET were significant independent factors for predicting early intrahepatic and extrahepatic RFS in patients with HCC after curative resection. Only HCV positivity and serum albumin level were significant for late intrahepatic RFS, which is mainly attributable to the de novo formation of new primary HCC. (orig.)

Survivable integrated grooming in multi-granularity optical networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jingjing; Guo, Lei; Wei, Xuetao; Liu, Yejun

2012-05-01

Survivability is an important issue to ensure the service continuity in optical network. At the same time, with the granularity of traffic demands ranging from sub-wavelength-level to wavelength-level, traffic demands need to be aggregated and carried over the network in order to utilize resources effectively. Therefore, multi-granularity grooming is proposed to save the cost and reduce the number of switching ports in Optical-Cross Connects (OXCs). However, current works mostly addressed the survivable wavelength or waveband grooming. Therefore, in this paper, we propose three heuristic algorithms called Multi-granularity Dedicated Protection Grooming (MDPG), Multi-granularity Shared Protection Grooming (MSPG) and Multi-granularity Mixed Protection Grooming (MMPG), respectively. All of them are performed based on the Survivable Multi-granularity Integrated Auxiliary Graph (SMIAG) that includes one Wavelength Integrated Auxiliary Graph (WIAG) for wavelength protection and one waveBand Integrated Auxiliary Graph (BIAG) for waveband protection. Numerical results show that MMPG has the lowest average port-cost, the best resource utilization ratio and the lowest blocking probability among these three algorithms. Compared with MDPG, MSPG has lower average port-cost, better resource utilization ratio and lower blocking probability.

Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

Science.gov (United States)

Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

2015-05-01

This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characteristic length of the knotting probability revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

2015-01-01

We present a self-avoiding polygon (SAP) model for circular DNA in which the radius of impermeable cylindrical segments corresponds to the screening length of double-stranded DNA surrounded by counter ions. For the model we evaluate the probability for a generated SAP with N segments having a given knot K through simulation. We call it the knotting probability of a knot K with N segments for the SAP model. We show that when N is large the most significant factor in the knotting probability is given by the exponentially decaying part exp(−N/N K ), where the estimates of parameter N K are consistent with the same value for all the different knots we investigated. We thus call it the characteristic length of the knotting probability. We give formulae expressing the characteristic length as a function of the cylindrical radius r ex , i.e. the screening length of double-stranded DNA. (paper)

The effects of force-fledging and premature fledging on the survival of nestling songbirds

Science.gov (United States)

Streby, Henry M.; Peterson, Sean M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Iknayan, Kelly J.; Andersen, David E.

2013-01-01

Despite the broad consensus that force-fledging of nestling songbirds lowers their probability of survival and therefore should be generally avoided by researchers, that presumption has not been tested. We used radiotelemetry to monitor the survival of fledglings of OvenbirdsSeiurus aurocapilla and Golden-winged Warblers Vermivora chrysoptera that we unintentionally force-fledged (i.e. nestlings left the nest in response to our research activities at typical fledging age), that fledged prematurely (i.e. nestlings left the nest earlier than typical fledging age), and that fledged independently of our activities. Force-fledged Ovenbirds experienced significantly higher survival than those that fledged independent of our activities, and prematurely fledged Ovenbirds had a similarly high survival to those that force-fledged at typical fledging age. We observed a similar, though not statistically significant, pattern in Golden-winged Warbler fledgling survival. Our results suggest that investigator-induced force-fledging of nestlings, even when deemed premature, does not necessarily result in reduced fledgling survival in these species. Instead, our results suggest that a propensity or ability to fledge in response to disturbance may be a predictor of a higher probability of fledgling survival.

Data-Driven Lead-Acid Battery Prognostics Using Random Survival Forests

Science.gov (United States)

2014-10-02

Kogalur, Blackstone , & Lauer, 2008; Ishwaran & Kogalur, 2010). Random survival forest is a sur- vival analysis extension of Random Forests (Breiman, 2001...Statistics & probability letters, 80(13), 1056–1064. Ishwaran, H., Kogalur, U. B., Blackstone , E. H., & Lauer, M. S. (2008). Random survival forests. The...and environment for sta- tistical computing [Computer software manual]. Vienna, Austria. Retrieved from http://www.R-project .org/ Wager, S., Hastie, T

Camouflage predicts survival in ground-nesting birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Troscianko, Jolyon; Wilson-Aggarwal, Jared; Stevens, Martin; Spottiswoode, Claire N

2016-01-29

Evading detection by predators is crucial for survival. Camouflage is therefore a widespread adaptation, but despite substantial research effort our understanding of different camouflage strategies has relied predominantly on artificial systems and on experiments disregarding how camouflage is perceived by predators. Here we show for the first time in a natural system, that survival probability of wild animals is directly related to their level of camouflage as perceived by the visual systems of their main predators. Ground-nesting plovers and coursers flee as threats approach, and their clutches were more likely to survive when their egg contrast matched their surrounds. In nightjars - which remain motionless as threats approach - clutch survival depended on plumage pattern matching between the incubating bird and its surrounds. Our findings highlight the importance of pattern and luminance based camouflage properties, and the effectiveness of modern techniques in capturing the adaptive properties of visual phenotypes.

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitlow, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

1993-01-01

This paper will describe a methodology which has been developed to allow accident probabilities associated with one severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme, permitting some comparisons of different studies at the category level. In this methodology, the severity category schemes to be compared are mapped onto a common set of axes. The axes represent critical accident environments (e.g., impact, thermal, crush, puncture) and indicate the range of accident parameters from zero (no accident) to the most sever credible forces. The choice of critical accident environments for the axes depends on the package being transported and the mode of transportation. The accident probabilities associated with one scheme are then transferred to the other scheme. This transfer of category probabilities is based on the relationships of the critical accident parameters to probability of occurrence. The methodology can be employed to transfer any quantity between category schemes if the appropriate supporting information is available. (J.P.N.)

Parent–offspring resemblance in colony-specific adult survival of cliff swallows

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Charles R.; Roche, Erin A.; Brown, Mary Bomberger

2015-01-01

Survival is a key component of fitness. Species that occupy discrete breeding colonies with different characteristics are often exposed to varying costs and benefits associated with group size or environmental conditions, and survival is an integrative net measure of these effects. We investigated the extent to which survival probability of adult (≥1-year old) cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) occupying different colonies resembled that of their parental cohort and thus whether the natal colony had long-term effects on individuals. Individuals were cross-fostered between colonies soon after hatching and their presence as breeders monitored at colonies in the western Nebraska study area for the subsequent decade. Colony-specific adult survival probabilities of offspring born and reared in the same colony, and those cross-fostered away from their natal colony soon after birth, were positively and significantly related to subsequent adult survival of the parental cohort from the natal colony. This result held when controlling for the effect of natal colony size and the age composition of the parental cohort. In contrast, colony-specific adult survival of offspring cross-fostered to a site was unrelated to that of their foster parent cohort or to the cohort of non-fostered offspring with whom they were reared. Adult survival at a colony varied inversely with fecundity, as measured by mean brood size, providing evidence for a survival–fecundity trade-off in this species. The results suggest some heritable variation in adult survival, likely maintained by negative correlations between fitness components. The study provides additional evidence that colonies represent non-random collections of individuals.

Method for Automatic Selection of Parameters in Normal Tissue Complication Probability Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Christophides, Damianos; Appelt, Ane L; Gusnanto, Arief; Lilley, John; Sebag-Montefiore, David

2018-07-01

To present a fully automatic method to generate multiparameter normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models and compare its results with those of a published model, using the same patient cohort. Data were analyzed from 345 rectal cancer patients treated with external radiation therapy to predict the risk of patients developing grade 1 or ≥2 cystitis. In total, 23 clinical factors were included in the analysis as candidate predictors of cystitis. Principal component analysis was used to decompose the bladder dose-volume histogram into 8 principal components, explaining more than 95% of the variance. The data set of clinical factors and principal components was divided into training (70%) and test (30%) data sets, with the training data set used by the algorithm to compute an NTCP model. The first step of the algorithm was to obtain a bootstrap sample, followed by multicollinearity reduction using the variance inflation factor and genetic algorithm optimization to determine an ordinal logistic regression model that minimizes the Bayesian information criterion. The process was repeated 100 times, and the model with the minimum Bayesian information criterion was recorded on each iteration. The most frequent model was selected as the final "automatically generated model" (AGM). The published model and AGM were fitted on the training data sets, and the risk of cystitis was calculated. The 2 models had no significant differences in predictive performance, both for the training and test data sets (P value > .05) and found similar clinical and dosimetric factors as predictors. Both models exhibited good explanatory performance on the training data set (P values > .44), which was reduced on the test data sets (P values < .05). The predictive value of the AGM is equivalent to that of the expert-derived published model. It demonstrates potential in saving time, tackling problems with a large number of parameters, and standardizing variable selection in NTCP

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-01-01

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs ...

Plasmodium Parasitemia Associated With Increased Survival in Ebola Virus–Infected Patients

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenke, Kyle; Adjemian, Jennifer; Munster, Vincent J.; Marzi, Andrea; Falzarano, Darryl; Onyango, Clayton O.; Ochieng, Melvin; Juma, Bonventure; Fischer, Robert J.; Prescott, Joseph B.; Safronetz, David; Omballa, Victor; Owuor, Collins; Hoenen, Thomas; Groseth, Allison; Martellaro, Cynthia; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Zemtsova, Galina; Self, Joshua; Bushmaker, Trenton; McNally, Kristin; Rowe, Thomas; Emery, Shannon L.; Feldmann, Friederike; Williamson, Brandi N.; Best, Sonja M.; Nyenswah, Tolbert G.; Grolla, Allen; Strong, James E.; Kobinger, Gary; Bolay, Fatorma K.; Zoon, Kathryn C.; Stassijns, Jorgen; Giuliani, Ruggero; de Smet, Martin; Nichol, Stuart T.; Fields, Barry; Sprecher, Armand; Massaquoi, Moses; Feldmann, Heinz; de Wit, Emmie

2016-01-01

Background. The ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa has resulted in 28 646 suspected, probable, and confirmed Ebola virus infections. Nevertheless, malaria remains a large public health burden in the region affected by the outbreak. A joint Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Institutes of Health diagnostic laboratory was established in Monrovia, Liberia, in August 2014, to provide laboratory diagnostics for Ebola virus. Methods. All blood samples from suspected Ebola virus–infected patients admitted to the Médecins Sans Frontières ELWA3 Ebola treatment unit in Monrovia were tested by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for the presence of Ebola virus and Plasmodium species RNA. Clinical outcome in laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus–infected patients was analyzed as a function of age, sex, Ebola viremia, and Plasmodium species parasitemia. Results. The case fatality rate of 1182 patients with laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus infections was 52%. The probability of surviving decreased with increasing age and decreased with increasing Ebola viral load. Ebola virus–infected patients were 20% more likely to survive when Plasmodium species parasitemia was detected, even after controlling for Ebola viral load and age; those with the highest levels of parasitemia had a survival rate of 83%. This effect was independent of treatment with antimalarials, as this was provided to all patients. Moreover, treatment with antimalarials did not affect survival in the Ebola virus mouse model. Conclusions. Plasmodium species parasitemia is associated with an increase in the probability of surviving Ebola virus infection. More research is needed to understand the molecular mechanism underlying this remarkable phenomenon and translate it into treatment options for Ebola virus infection. PMID:27531847

Change in volume parameters induced by neoadjuvant chemotherapy provide accurate prediction of overall survival after resection in patients with oesophageal cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tamandl, Dietmar; Fueger, Barbara; Kinsperger, Patrick; Haug, Alexander; Ba-Ssalamah, Ahmed [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-Guided Therapy, Comprehensive Cancer Center GET-Unit, Vienna (Austria); Gore, Richard M. [University of Chicago Pritzker School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Chicago, IL (United States); Hejna, Michael [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Medical Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center GET-Unit, Vienna (Austria); Paireder, Matthias; Schoppmann, Sebastian F. [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Surgery, Upper-GI-Service, Comprehensive Cancer Center GET-Unit, Vienna (Austria)

2016-02-15

To assess the prognostic value of volumetric parameters measured with CT and PET/CT in patients with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) and resection for oesophageal cancer (EC). Patients with locally advanced EC, who were treated with NACT and resection, were retrospectively analysed. Data from CT volumetry and {sup 18} F-FDG PET/CT (maximum standardized uptake [SUVmax], metabolic tumour volume [MTV], and total lesion glycolysis [TLG]) were recorded before and after NACT. The impact of volumetric parameter changes induced by NACT (MTV{sub RATIO}, TLG{sub RATIO}, etc.) on overall survival (OS) was assessed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Eighty-four patients were assessed using CT volumetry; of those, 50 also had PET/CT before and after NACT. Low post-treatment CT volume and thickness, MTV, TLG, and SUVmax were all associated with longer OS (p < 0.05), as were CTthickness{sub RATIO}, MTV{sub RATIO}, TLG{sub RATIO}, and SUVmax{sub RATIO} (p < 0.05). In the multivariate analysis, only MTV{sub RATIO} (Hazard ratio, HR 2.52 [95 % Confidence interval, CI 1.33-4.78], p = 0.005), TLG{sub RATIO} (HR 3.89 [95%CI 1.46-10.34], p = 0.006), and surgical margin status (p < 0.05), were independent predictors of OS. MTV{sub RATIO} and TLG{sub RATIO} are independent prognostic factors for survival in patients after NACT and resection for EC. (orig.)

Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

Science.gov (United States)

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

2011-01-01

We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

1984-11-01

The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts

Generalized Probability Functions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandre Souto Martinez

2009-01-01

Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2013-01-01

Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

FORECASTING OF SURVIVAL OF CHILDREN WITH THE PRENATALLY DIAGNOSED PATHOLOGY OF THE CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Анна Валериевна Дубовая

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The development of effective methods for the analysis and prognosis of the survival of newborns with prenatally diagnosed congenital malformations of the cardiovascular system are the urgent task of modern medicine. Objective – a neural network model for predicting the survival of children with prenatally diagnosed congenital malformations of the cardiovascular system was developed. Materials and methods. To create the artificial neural networks, the method of constructing multifactor mathematical prediction models in the software package Statistica 6.0 was used. The significance level of the factors influencing the survival of children with prenatally diagnosed congenital malformations of the cardiovascular system was determined using Wald statistics. When checking statistical hypotheses, the critical level of significance was assumed to be 0,05. Results. A neural network model for the determination of the probability of survival of a child with prenatally diagnosed congenital malformations of the cardiovascular system, which has a high prognostic ability of 0,88, sensitivity of the model was 77,6 %, specificity 86,4 %. The value of prognostic survival probability is in the range from 0 to 100 %. With an indicator value of more than 80 %, the probability of survival of a child with prenatally diagnosed congenital malformations of the cardiovascular system is estimated as high, ranging from 20 % to 80 % – as an average and less than 20 % – as low. Conclusion. In the algorithm for predicting the survival of children with prenatally diagnosed congenital malformations of the cardiovascular system it is necessary to include a combination with other pathology of cardiovascular system, with other organs and systems, with chromosomal abnormalities, with microdeletion and monogenic syndromes.

Ubiquitous log odds: a common representation of probability and frequency distortion in perception, action and cognition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hang eZhang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In decision from experience, the source of probability information affects how probability is distorted in the decision task. Understanding how and why probability is distorted is a key issue in understanding the peculiar character of experience-based decision. We consider how probability information is used not just in decision making but also in a wide variety of cognitive, perceptual and motor tasks. Very similar patterns of distortion of probability/frequency information have been found in visual frequency estimation, frequency estimation based on memory, signal detection theory, and in the use of probability information in decision-making under risk and uncertainty. We show that distortion of probability in all cases is well captured as linear transformations of the log odds of frequency and/or probability, a model with a slope parameter and an intercept parameter. We then consider how task and experience influence these two parameters and the resulting distortion of probability. We review how the probability distortions change in systematic ways with task and report three experiments on frequency distortion where the distortions change systematically in the same task. We found that the slope of frequency distortions decreases with the sample size, which is echoed by findings in decision from experience. We review previous models of the representation of uncertainty and find that none can account for the empirical findings.

Probability Analysis of the Wave-Slamming Pressure Values of the Horizontal Deck with Elastic Support

Science.gov (United States)

Zuo, Weiguang; Liu, Ming; Fan, Tianhui; Wang, Pengtao

2018-06-01

This paper presents the probability distribution of the slamming pressure from an experimental study of regular wave slamming on an elastically supported horizontal deck. The time series of the slamming pressure during the wave impact were first obtained through statistical analyses on experimental data. The exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak and distribution parameters were analyzed, and the results show that the exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak accords with the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the range and relationships of the distribution parameters were studied. The sum of the location parameter D and the scale parameter L was approximately equal to 1.0, and the exceeding probability was more than 36.79% when the random peak was equal to the sample average during the wave impact. The variation of the distribution parameters and slamming pressure under different model conditions were comprehensively presented, and the parameter values of the Weibull distribution of wave-slamming pressure peaks were different due to different test models. The parameter values were found to decrease due to the increased stiffness of the elastic support. The damage criterion of the structure model caused by the wave impact was initially discussed, and the structure model was destroyed when the average slamming time was greater than a certain value during the duration of the wave impact. The conclusions of the experimental study were then described.

Conditional Melanoma Cancer Survival in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ray M. Merrill

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Beyond relative survival, which indicates the likelihood that patients will not die from causes associated with their cancer, conditional relative survival probabilities provide further useful prognostic information to cancer patients, tailored to the time already survived from diagnosis. This study presents conditional relative survival for melanoma patients in the United States, diagnosed during 2000–2008 and followed through 2012. Analyses are based on 62,803 male and 50,261 female cases in population-based cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute. Five-year relative survival estimates are presented for melanoma patients who have already survived one, two, three, four, or five years after the initial diagnosis. Five- and ten-year relative survival decreases with age, stage at diagnosis, and is lower among males, Blacks, and Hispanics. Five-year conditional relative survival improves with each year already survived. The potential for improvement in five-year conditional relative survival is greatest for older age, males, Blacks, Hispanics, and in later staged cases. For local disease, five-year conditional relative survival was significantly lower in ages greater than 65 years and in Blacks. It was significantly higher in females, non-Hispanics, and married individuals. Age had a greater inverse relationship with five-year survival in later staged disease. A similar result occurred for females and married individuals. In contrast, non-Hispanics had better five-year survival if diagnosed with local or regional disease, but not distant disease.

Computer-aided mathematical analysis of probability of intercept for ground-based communication intercept system

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Sang Chul

1989-09-01

We develop a mathematical analysis model to calculate the probability of intercept (POI) for the ground-based communication intercept (COMINT) system. The POI is a measure of the effectiveness of the intercept system. We define the POI as the product of the probability of detection and the probability of coincidence. The probability of detection is a measure of the receiver's capability to detect a signal in the presence of noise. The probability of coincidence is the probability that an intercept system is available, actively listening in the proper frequency band, in the right direction and at the same time that the signal is received. We investigate the behavior of the POI with respect to the observation time, the separation distance, antenna elevations, the frequency of the signal, and the receiver bandwidths. We observe that the coincidence characteristic between the receiver scanning parameters and the signal parameters is the key factor to determine the time to obtain a given POI. This model can be used to find the optimal parameter combination to maximize the POI in a given scenario. We expand this model to a multiple system. This analysis is conducted on a personal computer to provide the portability. The model is also flexible and can be easily implemented under different situations.

Survivability of systems under multiple factor impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korczak, Edward; Levitin, Gregory

2007-01-01

The paper considers vulnerable multi-state series-parallel systems operating under influence of external impacts. Both the external impacts and internal failures affect system survivability, which is determined as the probability of meeting a given demand. The external impacts are characterized by several destructive factors affecting the system or its parts simultaneously. In order to increase the system's survivability a multilevel protection against the destructive factors can be applied to its subsystems. In such systems, the protected subsystems can be destroyed only if all of the levels of their protection are destroyed. The paper presents an algorithm for evaluating the survivability of series-parallel systems with arbitrary configuration of multilevel protection against multiple destructive factor impacts. The algorithm is based on a composition of Boolean and the Universal Generating Function techniques. Illustrative examples are presented

Estimating movement and survival rates of a small saltwater fish using autonomous antenna receiver arrays and passive integrated transponder tags

Science.gov (United States)

Rudershausen, Paul J.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Dubreuil, Todd; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Poland, Steven J.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the performance of small (12.5 mm long) passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and custom detection antennas for obtaining fine-scale movement and demographic data of mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus in a salt marsh creek. Apparent survival and detection probability were estimated using a Cormack Jolly Seber (CJS) model fitted to detection data collected by an array of 3 vertical antennas from November 2010 to March 2011 and by a single horizontal antenna from April to August 2011. Movement of mummichogs was monitored during the period when the array of vertical antennas was used. Antenna performance was examined in situ using tags placed in wooden dowels (drones) and in live mummichogs. Of the 44 tagged fish, 42 were resighted over the 9 mo monitoring period. The in situ detection probabilities of the drone and live mummichogs were high (~80-100%) when the ambient water depth was less than ~0.8 m. Upstream and downstream movement of mummichogs was related to hourly water depth and direction of tidal current in a way that maximized time periods over which mummichogs utilized the intertidal vegetated marsh. Apparent survival was lower during periods of colder water temperatures in December 2010 and early January 2011 (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.979) than during other periods of the study (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.992). During late fall and winter, temperature had a positive effect on the CJS detection probability of a tagged mummichog, likely due to greater fish activity over warmer periods. During the spring and summer, this pattern reversed possibly due to mummichogs having reduced activity during the hottest periods. This study demonstrates the utility of PIT tags and continuously operating autonomous detection systems for tracking fish at fine temporal scales, and improving estimates of demographic parameters in salt marsh creeks that are difficult or impractical to sample with active fishing gear.

Ignition probabilities for Compact Ignition Tokamak designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stotler, D.P.; Goldston, R.J.

1989-09-01

A global power balance code employing Monte Carlo techniques had been developed to study the ''probability of ignition'' and has been applied to several different configurations of the Compact Ignition Tokamak (CIT). Probability distributions for the critical physics parameters in the code were estimated using existing experimental data. This included a statistical evaluation of the uncertainty in extrapolating the energy confinement time. A substantial probability of ignition is predicted for CIT if peaked density profiles can be achieved or if one of the two higher plasma current configurations is employed. In other cases, values of the energy multiplication factor Q of order 10 are generally obtained. The Ignitor-U and ARIES designs are also examined briefly. Comparisons of our empirically based confinement assumptions with two theory-based transport models yield conflicting results. 41 refs., 11 figs

Environmental pollution has sex-dependent effects on local survival

Science.gov (United States)

Eeva, Tapio; Hakkarainen, Harri; Laaksonen, Toni; Lehikoinen, Esa

2006-01-01

Environmental pollutants cause a potential hazard for survival in free-living animal populations. We modelled local survival (including emigration) by using individual mark–recapture histories of males and females in a population of a small insectivorous passerine bird, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) living around a point source of heavy metals (copper smelter). Local survival of F. hypoleuca females did not differ between polluted and unpolluted environments. Males, however, showed a one-third higher local-survival probability in the polluted area. Low fledgling production was generally associated with decreased local survival, but males in the polluted area showed relatively high local survival, irrespective of their fledgling number. A possible explanation of higher local survival of males in the polluted area could be a pollution-induced change in hormone (e.g. corticosterone or testosterone) levels of males. It could make them to invest more on their own survival or affect the hormonal control of breeding dispersal. The local survival of males decreased in the polluted area over the study period along with the simultaneous decrease in heavy metal emissions. This temporal trend is in agreement with the stress hormone hypothesis. PMID:17148387

Racial residential segregation, socioeconomic disparities, and the White-Black survival gap

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, Erin; Mendelsohn, Joshua; Escarce, José J.

2018-01-01

Objective To evaluate the association between racial residential segregation, a prominent manifestation of systemic racism, and the White-Black survival gap in a contemporary cohort of adults, and to assess the extent to which socioeconomic inequality explains this association. Design This was a cross sectional study of White and Black men and women aged 35–75 living in 102 large US Core Based Statistical Areas. The main outcome was the White-Black survival gap. We used 2009–2013 CDC mortality data for Black and White men and women to calculate age-, sex- and race adjusted White and Black mortality rates. We measured segregation using the Dissimilarity index, obtained from the Manhattan Institute. We used the 2009–2013 American Community Survey to define indicators of socioeconomic inequality. We estimated the CBSA-level White–Black gap in probability of survival using sequential linear regression models accounting for the CBSA dissimilarity index and race-specific socioeconomic indicators. Results Black men and women had a 14% and 9% lower probability of survival from age 35 to 75 than their white counterparts. Residential segregation was strongly associated with the survival gap, and this relationship was partly, but not fully, explained by socioeconomic inequality. At the lowest observed level of segregation, and with the Black socioeconomic status (SES) assumed to be at the White SES level scenario, the survival gap is essentially eliminated. Conclusion White-Black differences in survival remain wide notwithstanding public health efforts to improve life expectancy and initiatives to reduce health disparities. Eliminating racial residential segregation and bringing Black socioeconomic status (SES) to White SES levels would eliminate the White-Black survival gap. PMID:29474451

Racial residential segregation, socioeconomic disparities, and the White-Black survival gap.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioana Popescu

Full Text Available To evaluate the association between racial residential segregation, a prominent manifestation of systemic racism, and the White-Black survival gap in a contemporary cohort of adults, and to assess the extent to which socioeconomic inequality explains this association.This was a cross sectional study of White and Black men and women aged 35-75 living in 102 large US Core Based Statistical Areas. The main outcome was the White-Black survival gap. We used 2009-2013 CDC mortality data for Black and White men and women to calculate age-, sex- and race adjusted White and Black mortality rates. We measured segregation using the Dissimilarity index, obtained from the Manhattan Institute. We used the 2009-2013 American Community Survey to define indicators of socioeconomic inequality. We estimated the CBSA-level White-Black gap in probability of survival using sequential linear regression models accounting for the CBSA dissimilarity index and race-specific socioeconomic indicators.Black men and women had a 14% and 9% lower probability of survival from age 35 to 75 than their white counterparts. Residential segregation was strongly associated with the survival gap, and this relationship was partly, but not fully, explained by socioeconomic inequality. At the lowest observed level of segregation, and with the Black socioeconomic status (SES assumed to be at the White SES level scenario, the survival gap is essentially eliminated.White-Black differences in survival remain wide notwithstanding public health efforts to improve life expectancy and initiatives to reduce health disparities. Eliminating racial residential segregation and bringing Black socioeconomic status (SES to White SES levels would eliminate the White-Black survival gap.

Plasmodium Parasitemia Associated With Increased Survival in Ebola Virus-Infected Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenke, Kyle; Adjemian, Jennifer; Munster, Vincent J; Marzi, Andrea; Falzarano, Darryl; Onyango, Clayton O; Ochieng, Melvin; Juma, Bonventure; Fischer, Robert J; Prescott, Joseph B; Safronetz, David; Omballa, Victor; Owuor, Collins; Hoenen, Thomas; Groseth, Allison; Martellaro, Cynthia; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Zemtsova, Galina; Self, Joshua; Bushmaker, Trenton; McNally, Kristin; Rowe, Thomas; Emery, Shannon L; Feldmann, Friederike; Williamson, Brandi N; Best, Sonja M; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Grolla, Allen; Strong, James E; Kobinger, Gary; Bolay, Fatorma K; Zoon, Kathryn C; Stassijns, Jorgen; Giuliani, Ruggero; de Smet, Martin; Nichol, Stuart T; Fields, Barry; Sprecher, Armand; Massaquoi, Moses; Feldmann, Heinz; de Wit, Emmie

2016-10-15

The ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa has resulted in 28 646 suspected, probable, and confirmed Ebola virus infections. Nevertheless, malaria remains a large public health burden in the region affected by the outbreak. A joint Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Institutes of Health diagnostic laboratory was established in Monrovia, Liberia, in August 2014, to provide laboratory diagnostics for Ebola virus. All blood samples from suspected Ebola virus-infected patients admitted to the Médecins Sans Frontières ELWA3 Ebola treatment unit in Monrovia were tested by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for the presence of Ebola virus and Plasmodium species RNA. Clinical outcome in laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus-infected patients was analyzed as a function of age, sex, Ebola viremia, and Plasmodium species parasitemia. The case fatality rate of 1182 patients with laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus infections was 52%. The probability of surviving decreased with increasing age and decreased with increasing Ebola viral load. Ebola virus-infected patients were 20% more likely to survive when Plasmodium species parasitemia was detected, even after controlling for Ebola viral load and age; those with the highest levels of parasitemia had a survival rate of 83%. This effect was independent of treatment with antimalarials, as this was provided to all patients. Moreover, treatment with antimalarials did not affect survival in the Ebola virus mouse model. Plasmodium species parasitemia is associated with an increase in the probability of surviving Ebola virus infection. More research is needed to understand the molecular mechanism underlying this remarkable phenomenon and translate it into treatment options for Ebola virus infection. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Bayesian probability theory applications in the physical sciences

CERN Document Server

Linden, Wolfgang von der; Toussaint, Udo von

2014-01-01

From the basics to the forefront of modern research, this book presents all aspects of probability theory, statistics and data analysis from a Bayesian perspective for physicists and engineers. The book presents the roots, applications and numerical implementation of probability theory, and covers advanced topics such as maximum entropy distributions, stochastic processes, parameter estimation, model selection, hypothesis testing and experimental design. In addition, it explores state-of-the art numerical techniques required to solve demanding real-world problems. The book is ideal for students and researchers in physical sciences and engineering.

["That flesh, pink and perishable": analysis of disease-free survival analysis in breast cancer in Gipuzkoa (Spain) in the presence of competing risks].

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Larrañaga, Nerea; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Mitxelena, María José; Basterretxea, Mikel

2009-01-01

To analyze time of disease-free survival and relative survival in women diagnosed with breast cancer in the province of Gipuzkoa within the context of competing risks by assessing differences between the direct use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement method on the one hand, and relative survival on the other. All registered breast cancer cases in Gipuzkoa in 1995 and 1996 with stages other than stage IV were included. An 8-year follow-up for recurrence and a 10-year follow-up for survival were performed. Time of disease-free survival was studied by the multiple decrement model. Observed survival and survival corrected by the expected mortality in the population (relative survival) were also studied. Estimation of the probability of recurrence at 8 years with the multiple decrement method was 8.8% lower than that obtained with the Kaplan-Meier method. The difference between the observed and relative survival rates at 10 years was 10.8%. Both results show how, in this case, the Kaplan-Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality from the disease. Two issues are often overlooked when performing survival analyses: firstly, because of the lack of independence between survival time and censoring time, the results obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator are uninterpretable; secondly, it is an incontrovertible fact that one way or another, everyone causes failures. In this approach, survival analyses must take into account the probability of failure in the general population of reference. The results obtained in this study show that superficial use of the Kaplan Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality caused by the disease.

Probability of Criticality for MOX SNF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

P. Gottlieb

1999-01-01

The purpose of this calculation is to provide a conservative (upper bound) estimate of the probability of criticality for mixed oxide (MOX) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) of the Westinghouse pressurized water reactor (PWR) design that has been proposed for use. with the Plutonium Disposition Program (Ref. 1, p. 2). This calculation uses a Monte Carlo technique similar to that used for ordinary commercial SNF (Ref. 2, Sections 2 and 5.2). Several scenarios, covering a range of parameters, are evaluated for criticality. Parameters specifying the loss of fission products and iron oxide from the waste package are particularly important. This calculation is associated with disposal of MOX SNF

Measurement of the resonance escape probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anthony, J.P.; Bacher, P.; Lheureux, L.; Moreau, J.; Schmitt, A.P.

1957-01-01

The average cadmium ratio in natural uranium rods has been measured, using equal diameter natural uranium disks. These values correlated with independent measurements of the lattice buckling, enabled us to calculate values of the resonance escape probability for the G1 reactor with one or the other of two definitions. Measurements were performed on 26 mm and 32 mm rods, giving the following values for the resonance escape probability p: 0.8976 ± 0.005 and 0.912 ± 0.006 (d. 26 mm), 0.8627 ± 0.009 and 0.884 ± 0.01 (d. 32 mm). The influence of either definition on the lattice parameters is discussed, leading to values of the effective integral. Similar experiments have been performed with thorium rods. (author) [fr

Introduction to SURPH.1 analysis of release-recapture data for survival studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, S.G.; Skalski, J.R.; Schlechte, J.W.; Hoffmann, A.; Cassen, V.

1994-12-01

Program SURPH is the culmination of several years of research to develop a comprehensive computer program to analyze survival studies of fish and wildlife populations. Development of this software was motivated by the advent of the PIT-tag (Passive Integrated Transponder) technology that permits the detection of salmonid smolt as they pass through hydroelectric facilities on the Snake and Columbia Rivers in the Pacific Northwest. Repeated detections of individually tagged smolt and analysis of their capture-histories permits estimates of downriver survival probabilities. Eventual installation of detection facilities at adult fish ladders will also permit estimation of ocean survival and upstream survival of returning salmon using the statistical methods incorporated in SURPH.1. However, the utility of SURPH.1 far exceeds solely the analysis of salmonid tagging studies. Release-recapture and radiotelemetry studies from a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic species have been analyzed using SURPH.1 to estimate discrete time survival probabilities and investigate survival relationships. The interactive computing environment of SURPH.1 was specifically developed to allow researchers to investigate the relationship between survival and capture processes and environmental, experimental and individual-based covariates. Program SURPH.1 represents a significant advancement in the ability of ecologists to investigate the interplay between morphologic, genetic, environmental and anthropogenic factors on the survival of wild species. It is hoped that this better understanding of risk factors affecting survival will lead to greater appreciation of the intricacies of nature and to improvements in the management of wild resources. This technical report is an introduction to SURPH.1 and provides a user guide for both the UNIX and MS-Windows reg-sign applications of the SURPH software

Probability

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, A N

1996-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

Direct Survival Analysis: a new stock assessment method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Ferrandis

2007-03-01

Full Text Available In this work, a new stock assessment method, Direct Survival Analysis, is proposed and described. The parameter estimation of the Weibull survival model proposed by Ferrandis (2007 is obtained using trawl survey data. This estimation is used to establish a baseline survival function, which is in turn used to estimate the specific survival functions in the different cohorts considered through an adaptation of the separable model of the fishing mortality rates introduced by Pope and Shepherd (1982. It is thus possible to test hypotheses on the evolution of survival during the period studied and to identify trends in recruitment. A link is established between the preceding analysis of trawl survey data and the commercial catch-at-age data that are generally obtained to evaluate the population using analytical models. The estimated baseline survival, with the proposed versions of the stock and catch equations and the adaptation of the Separable Model, may be applied to commercial catch-at-age data. This makes it possible to estimate the survival corresponding to the landing data, the initial size of the cohort and finally, an effective age of first capture, in order to complete the parameter model estimation and consequently the estimation of the whole survival and mortality, along with the reference parameters that are useful for management purposes. Alternatively, this estimation of an effective age of first capture may be obtained by adapting the demographic structure of trawl survey data to that of the commercial fleet through suitable selectivity models of the commercial gears. The complete model provides the evaluation of the stock at any age. The coherence (and hence the mutual “calibration” between the two kinds of information may be analysed and compared with results obtained by other methods, such as virtual population analysis (VPA, in order to improve the diagnosis of the state of exploitation of the population. The model may be

Probability of primordial black hole formation and its dependence on the radial profile of initial configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hidalgo, J. C.; Polnarev, A. G.

2009-01-01

In this paper we derive the probability of the radial profiles of spherically symmetric inhomogeneities in order to provide an improved estimation of the number density of primordial black holes (PBHs). We demonstrate that the probability of PBH formation depends sensitively on the radial profile of the initial configuration. We do this by characterizing this profile with two parameters chosen heuristically: the amplitude of the inhomogeneity and the second radial derivative, both evaluated at the center of the configuration. We calculate the joint probability of initial cosmological inhomogeneities as a function of these two parameters and then find a correspondence between these parameters and those used in numerical computations of PBH formation. Finally, we extend our heuristic study to evaluate the probability of PBH formation taking into account for the first time the radial profile of curvature inhomogeneities.

Promising survival with three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Armstrong, John; Raben, Adam; Zelefsky, Michael; Burt, Michael; Leibel, Steve; Burman, Chandra; Kutcher, Gerard; Harrison, Louis; Hahn, Cathy; Ginsberg, Robert; Rusch, Valerie; Kris, Mark; Fuks, Zvi

1997-01-01

complication probability of 12% or higher versus 0% ((0(17))) in patients with a predicted probability of less than 12% (P = 0.03). Conclusions: Despite adverse prognostic criteria median survival is encouraging and may be higher than some combined modality approaches. Dose volume histogram parameters may be useful to determine the maximum dose for individual patients and thereby permit avoidance of toxicity

On the survivability of diagnostic windows in the CIT [Compact Ignition Tokamak] reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, A.

1988-11-01

The problem of radiation induced stresses in CIT diagnostic windows is discussed. Existing data indicate windows of existing design will probably survive if placed on the periphery of the reactor. There is a lack of adequate engineering data upon which the design and survivability of windows can be based. 22 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

Accurate step-hold tracking of smoothly varying periodic and aperiodic probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ricci, Matthew; Gallistel, Randy

2017-07-01

Subjects observing many samples from a Bernoulli distribution are able to perceive an estimate of the generating parameter. A question of fundamental importance is how the current percept-what we think the probability now is-depends on the sequence of observed samples. Answers to this question are strongly constrained by the manner in which the current percept changes in response to changes in the hidden parameter. Subjects do not update their percept trial-by-trial when the hidden probability undergoes unpredictable and unsignaled step changes; instead, they update it only intermittently in a step-hold pattern. It could be that the step-hold pattern is not essential to the perception of probability and is only an artifact of step changes in the hidden parameter. However, we now report that the step-hold pattern obtains even when the parameter varies slowly and smoothly. It obtains even when the smooth variation is periodic (sinusoidal) and perceived as such. We elaborate on a previously published theory that accounts for: (i) the quantitative properties of the step-hold update pattern; (ii) subjects' quick and accurate reporting of changes; (iii) subjects' second thoughts about previously reported changes; (iv) subjects' detection of higher-order structure in patterns of change. We also call attention to the challenges these results pose for trial-by-trial updating theories.

A semi-mechanistic approach to calculate the probability of fuel defects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tayal, M.; Millen, E.; Sejnoha, R.

1992-10-01

In this paper the authors describe the status of a semi-mechanistic approach to the calculation of the probability of fuel defects. This approach expresses the defect probability in terms of fundamental parameters such as local stresses, local strains, and fission product concentration. The calculations of defect probability continue to reflect the influences of the conventional parameters like power ramp, burnup and CANLUB. In addition, the new approach provides a mechanism to account for the impacts of additional factors involving detailed fuel design and reactor operation, for example pellet density, pellet shape and size, sheath diameter and thickness, pellet/sheath clearance, and coolant temperature and pressure. The approach has been validated against a previous empirical correlation. AN illustrative example shows how the defect thresholds are influenced by changes in the internal design of the element and in the coolant pressure. (Author) (7 figs., tab., 12 refs.)

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ziya Kordjazi

Full Text Available Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days. The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery.

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

2016-01-01

Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

MRCI study on the spectroscopic parameters, transition dipole moments and transition probabilities of 16 low-lying states of the BeB radical

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Dan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2018-03-01

In this work, we calculate the potential energy curves of 16 Λ-S and 36 Ω states of beryllium boride (BeB) radical using the complete active space self-consistent field method, followed by the valence internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with Davidson correction. The 16 Λ-S states are the X2Π, A2Σ+, B2Π, C2Δ, D2Ʃ-, E2Σ+, G2Π, I2Σ+, a4Σ-, b4Π, c4Σ-, d4Δ, e4Σ+, g4Π, h4Π, and 24Σ+, which are obtained from the first three dissociation channels of the BeB radical. The Ω states are obtained from the Λ-S states. Of the Λ-S states, the G2Π, I2Σ+, and h4Π states exhibit double well curves. The G2Π, b4Π, and g4Π states are inverted with the spin-orbit coupling effect included. The d4Δ, e4Σ+, and g4Π states as well as the second well of the h4Π state are very weakly bound. Avoided crossings exist between the G2Π and H2Π states, the A2Σ+ and E2Σ+ states, the c4Σ- and f4Σ- states, the g4Π and h4Π states, the I2Σ+ and 42Σ+ states, as well as the 24Σ+ and 34Σ+ states. To improve the quality of the potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of the potential energies to the complete basis set limit, are included. The transition dipole moments are computed. Spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are determined along with Franck-Condon factors, Einstein coefficients, and radiative lifetimes of many electronic transitions. The transition probabilities are evaluated. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels is discussed. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered very reliable and can be employed to predict these states in an appropriate spectroscopy experiment.

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice.

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, Eric V; Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Amstrup, Steven C; Stirling, Ian

2010-01-01

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0.96-0.99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0.73-0.79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings therefore are

On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities resulting from small datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jiaxin; Shields, Michael D.

2018-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of uncertainty quantification and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are scarce. We propose a methodology wherein the full uncertainty associated with probability model form and parameter estimation are retained and efficiently propagated. This is achieved by applying the information-theoretic multimodel inference method to identify plausible candidate probability densities and associated probabilities that each method is the best model in the Kullback-Leibler sense. The joint parameter densities for each plausible model are then estimated using Bayes' rule. We then propagate this full set of probability models by estimating an optimal importance sampling density that is representative of all plausible models, propagating this density, and reweighting the samples according to each of the candidate probability models. This is in contrast with conventional methods that try to identify a single probability model that encapsulates the full uncertainty caused by lack of data and consequently underestimate uncertainty. The result is a complete probabilistic description of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty achieved with several orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost. It is shown how the model can be updated to adaptively accommodate added data and added candidate probability models. The method is applied for uncertainty analysis of plate buckling strength where it is demonstrated how dataset size affects the confidence (or lack thereof) we can place in statistical estimates of response when data are lacking.

Clinical variables serve as prognostic factors in a model for survival from glioblastoma multiforme: an observational study of a cohort of consecutive non-selected patients from a single institution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michaelsen, Signe Regner; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Grunnet, Kirsten; Stockhausen, Marie-Thérése; Broholm, Helle; Kosteljanetz, Michael; Poulsen, Hans Skovgaard

2013-01-01

Although implementation of temozolomide (TMZ) as a part of primary therapy for glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) has resulted in improved patient survival, the disease is still incurable. Previous studies have correlated various parameters to survival, although no single parameter has yet been identified. More studies and new approaches to identify the best and worst performing patients are therefore in great demand. This study examined 225 consecutive, non-selected GBM patients with performance status (PS) 0–2 receiving postoperative radiotherapy with concomitant and adjuvant TMZ as primary therapy. At relapse, patients with PS 0–2 were mostly treated by reoperation and/or combination with bevacizumab/irinotecan (BEV/IRI), while a few received TMZ therapy if the recurrence-free period was >6 months. Median overall survival and time to progression were 14.3 and 8.0 months, respectively. Second-line therapy indicated that reoperation and/or BEV/IRI increased patient survival compared with untreated patients and that BEV/IRI was more effective than reoperation alone. Patient age, ECOG PS, and use of corticosteroid therapy were significantly correlated with patient survival and disease progression on univariate analysis, whereas p53, epidermal growth factor receptor, and O 6 -methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase expression (all detected by immunohistochemistry), tumor size or multifocality, and extent of primary operation were not. A model based on age, ECOG PS, and corticosteroids use was able to predict survival probability for an individual patient. The survival of RT/TMZ-treated GBM patients can be predicted based on patient age, ECOG PS, and corticosteroid therapy status

Trends in colorectal cancer survival in northern Denmark: 1985-2004

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Lene Hjerrild; Nørgaard, Mette; Jepsen, Peter

2007-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The prognosis for colorectal cancer (CRC) is less favourable in Denmark than in neighbouring countries. To improve cancer treatment in Denmark, a National Cancer Plan was proposed in 2000. We conducted this population-based study to monitor recent trends in CRC survival and mortality...... for age and gender. A total of 19,515 CRC patients were identified and linked with the Central Office of Civil Registration to ascertain survival through January 2005. Results: From 1985 to 2004, 1-year and 5-year survival improved both for patients with colon and rectal cancer. From 1995-1999 to 2000......-2004, overall 1-year survival of 65% for colon cancer did not improve, and some age groups experienced a decreasing 1-year survival probability. For rectal cancer, overall 1-year survival increased from 71% in 1995-1999 to 74% in 2000-2004. Using 1985-1989 as reference period, 30-day mortality did not decrease...

Survival of patients with multiple sclerosis in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Hyllested, K

1994-01-01

We estimated survival probability and excess death rates for patients with MS on the basis of data from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry, which includes virtually all patients diagnosed with MS in Denmark (population, five million) since 1948. We reviewed and reclassified all case records...... in women (versus 46 years). The median survival time from diagnosis was 22 years in men (versus 37 years) and 28 years in women (versus 42 years). The excess death rate between onset and follow-up (observed deaths per 1,000 person-years minus the expected number of deaths in a matched general population...

Survival of microorganisms in smectite clays - Implications for Martian exobiology

Science.gov (United States)

Moll, Deborah M.; Vestal, J. R.

1992-01-01

The survival of Baccillus subtilis, Azotobacter chroococcum, and the enteric bacteriophage MS2 has been examined in clays representing terrestrial (Wyoming type montmorillonite) and Martian (Fe3+ montmorillonite) soils exposed to terrestrial and Martian environmental conditions of temperature and atmospheric composition and pressure. An important finding is that MS2 survived simulated Mars conditions better than the terrestrial environment, probably owing to stabilization of the virus caused by the cold and dry conditions of the simulated Mars environment. This finding, the first published indication that viruses may be able to survive in Mars-type soils, may have important implications for future missions to Mars.

Normal tissue complication probability model parameter estimation for xerostomia in head and neck cancer patients based on scintigraphy and quality of life assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Tsair-Fwu; Chao, Pei-Ju; Wang, Hung-Yu; Hsu, Hsuan-Chih; Chang, PaoShu; Chen, Wen-Cheng

2012-01-01

With advances in modern radiotherapy (RT), many patients with head and neck (HN) cancer can be effectively cured. However, xerostomia is a common complication in patients after RT for HN cancer. The purpose of this study was to use the Lyman–Kutcher–Burman (LKB) model to derive parameters for the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for xerostomia based on scintigraphy assessments and quality of life (QoL) questionnaires. We performed validation tests of the Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) guidelines against prospectively collected QoL and salivary scintigraphic data. Thirty-one patients with HN cancer were enrolled. Salivary excretion factors (SEFs) measured by scintigraphy and QoL data from self-reported questionnaires were used for NTCP modeling to describe the incidence of grade 3 + xerostomia. The NTCP parameters estimated from the QoL and SEF datasets were compared. Model performance was assessed using Pearson’s chi-squared test, Nagelkerke’s R 2 , the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. The negative predictive value (NPV) was checked for the rate of correctly predicting the lack of incidence. Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to test the goodness of fit and association. Using the LKB NTCP model and assuming n=1, the dose for uniform irradiation of the whole or partial volume of the parotid gland that results in 50% probability of a complication (TD 50 ) and the slope of the dose–response curve (m) were determined from the QoL and SEF datasets, respectively. The NTCP-fitted parameters for local disease were TD 50 =43.6 Gy and m=0.18 with the SEF data, and TD 50 =44.1 Gy and m=0.11 with the QoL data. The rate of grade 3 + xerostomia for treatment plans meeting the QUANTEC guidelines was specifically predicted, with a NPV of 100%, using either the QoL or SEF dataset. Our study shows the agreement between the NTCP parameter modeling based on SEF and

Normal tissue complication probability model parameter estimation for xerostomia in head and neck cancer patients based on scintigraphy and quality of life assessments

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background With advances in modern radiotherapy (RT), many patients with head and neck (HN) cancer can be effectively cured. However, xerostomia is a common complication in patients after RT for HN cancer. The purpose of this study was to use the Lyman–Kutcher–Burman (LKB) model to derive parameters for the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for xerostomia based on scintigraphy assessments and quality of life (QoL) questionnaires. We performed validation tests of the Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) guidelines against prospectively collected QoL and salivary scintigraphic data. Methods Thirty-one patients with HN cancer were enrolled. Salivary excretion factors (SEFs) measured by scintigraphy and QoL data from self-reported questionnaires were used for NTCP modeling to describe the incidence of grade 3+ xerostomia. The NTCP parameters estimated from the QoL and SEF datasets were compared. Model performance was assessed using Pearson’s chi-squared test, Nagelkerke’s R2, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. The negative predictive value (NPV) was checked for the rate of correctly predicting the lack of incidence. Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to test the goodness of fit and association. Results Using the LKB NTCP model and assuming n=1, the dose for uniform irradiation of the whole or partial volume of the parotid gland that results in 50% probability of a complication (TD50) and the slope of the dose–response curve (m) were determined from the QoL and SEF datasets, respectively. The NTCP-fitted parameters for local disease were TD50=43.6 Gy and m=0.18 with the SEF data, and TD50=44.1 Gy and m=0.11 with the QoL data. The rate of grade 3+ xerostomia for treatment plans meeting the QUANTEC guidelines was specifically predicted, with a NPV of 100%, using either the QoL or SEF dataset. Conclusions Our study shows the agreement between the NTCP

Normal tissue complication probability model parameter estimation for xerostomia in head and neck cancer patients based on scintigraphy and quality of life assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee Tsair-Fwu

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background With advances in modern radiotherapy (RT, many patients with head and neck (HN cancer can be effectively cured. However, xerostomia is a common complication in patients after RT for HN cancer. The purpose of this study was to use the Lyman–Kutcher–Burman (LKB model to derive parameters for the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP for xerostomia based on scintigraphy assessments and quality of life (QoL questionnaires. We performed validation tests of the Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC guidelines against prospectively collected QoL and salivary scintigraphic data. Methods Thirty-one patients with HN cancer were enrolled. Salivary excretion factors (SEFs measured by scintigraphy and QoL data from self-reported questionnaires were used for NTCP modeling to describe the incidence of grade 3+ xerostomia. The NTCP parameters estimated from the QoL and SEF datasets were compared. Model performance was assessed using Pearson’s chi-squared test, Nagelkerke’s R2, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. The negative predictive value (NPV was checked for the rate of correctly predicting the lack of incidence. Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to test the goodness of fit and association. Results Using the LKB NTCP model and assuming n=1, the dose for uniform irradiation of the whole or partial volume of the parotid gland that results in 50% probability of a complication (TD50 and the slope of the dose–response curve (m were determined from the QoL and SEF datasets, respectively. The NTCP-fitted parameters for local disease were TD50=43.6 Gy and m=0.18 with the SEF data, and TD50=44.1 Gy and m=0.11 with the QoL data. The rate of grade 3+ xerostomia for treatment plans meeting the QUANTEC guidelines was specifically predicted, with a NPV of 100%, using either the QoL or SEF dataset. Conclusions Our study shows the agreement

Combinatorial gene therapy renders increased survival in cirrhotic rats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Armendáriz-Borunda Juan S

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Liver fibrosis ranks as the second cause of death in México's productive-age population. This pathology is characterized by acummulation of fibrillar proteins in hepatic parenchyma causing synthetic and metabolic disfunction. Remotion of excessive fibrous proteins might result in benefit for subjects increasing survival index. The goal of this work was to find whether the already known therapeutical effect of human urokinase Plasminogen Activator and human Matrix Metalloprotease 8 extends survival index in cirrhotic animals. Methods Wistar rats (80 g underwent chronic intoxication with CCl4: mineral oil for 8 weeks. Cirrhotic animals were injected with a combined dose of Ad-delta-huPA plus Ad-MMP8 (3 × 1011 and 1.5 × 1011 vp/Kg, respectively or with Ad-beta-Gal (4.5 × 1011 and were killed after 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 days. Then, liver and serum were collected. An additional set of cirrhotic animals injected with combined gene therapy was also monitored for their probability of survival. Results Only the cirrhotic animals treated with therapeutical genes (Ad-delta-huPA+Ad-MMP-8 showed improvement in liver fibrosis. These results correlated with hydroxyproline determinations. A significant decrement in alpha-SMA and TGF-beta1 gene expression was also observed. Cirrhotic rats treated with Ad-delta-huPA plus Ad-MMP8 had a higher probability of survival at 60 days with respect to Ad-beta-Gal-injected animals. Conclusion A single administration of Ad-delta-huPA plus Ad-MMP-8 is efficient to induce fibrosis regression and increase survival in experimental liver fibrosis.

Theoretical derivation of wind power probability distribution function and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altunkaynak, Abdüsselam; Erdik, Tarkan; Dabanlı, İsmail; Şen, Zekai

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Derivation of wind power stochastic characteristics are standard deviation and the dimensionless skewness. ► The perturbation is expressions for the wind power statistics from Weibull probability distribution function (PDF). ► Comparisons with the corresponding characteristics of wind speed PDF abides by the Weibull PDF. ► The wind power abides with the Weibull-PDF. -- Abstract: The instantaneous wind power contained in the air current is directly proportional with the cube of the wind speed. In practice, there is a record of wind speeds in the form of a time series. It is, therefore, necessary to develop a formulation that takes into consideration the statistical parameters of such a time series. The purpose of this paper is to derive the general wind power formulation in terms of the statistical parameters by using the perturbation theory, which leads to a general formulation of the wind power expectation and other statistical parameter expressions such as the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. The formulation is very general and can be applied specifically for any wind speed probability distribution function. Its application to two-parameter Weibull probability distribution of wind speeds is presented in full detail. It is concluded that provided wind speed is distributed according to a Weibull distribution, the wind power could be derived based on wind speed data. It is possible to determine wind power at any desired risk level, however, in practical studies most often 5% or 10% risk levels are preferred and the necessary simple procedure is presented for this purpose in this paper.

Hypermetabolism in ALS is associated with greater functional decline and shorter survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Steyn, Frederik J; Ioannides, Zara A; van Eijk, Ruben P A; Heggie, Susan; Thorpe, Kathryn A; Ceslis, Amelia; Heshmat, Saman; Henders, Anjali K; Wray, Naomi R; van den Berg, Leonard H; Henderson, Robert D; McCombe, Pamela A; Ngo, Shyuan T

2018-04-29

To determine the prevalence of hypermetabolism, relative to body composition, in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and its relationship with clinical features of disease and survival. Fifty-eight patients with clinically definite or probable ALS as defined by El Escorial criteria, and 58 age and sex-matched control participants underwent assessment of energy expenditure. Our primary outcome was the prevalence of hypermetabolism in cases and controls. Longitudinal changes in clinical parameters between hypermetabolic and normometabolic patients with ALS were determined for up to 12 months following metabolic assessment. Survival was monitored over a 30-month period following metabolic assessment. Hypermetabolism was more prevalent in patients with ALS than controls (41% vs 12%, adjusted OR=5.4; pALS. Mean lower motor neuron score (SD) was greater in hypermetabolic patients when compared with normometabolic patients (4 (0.3) vs 3 (0.7); p=0.04). In the 12 months following metabolic assessment, there was a greater change in Revised ALS Functional Rating Scale score in hypermetabolic patients when compared with normometabolic patients (-0.68 points/month vs -0.39 points/month; p=0.01). Hypermetabolism was inversely associated with survival. Overall, hypermetabolism increased the risk of death during follow-up to 220% (HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 9.4, p=0.03). Hypermetabolic patients with ALS have a greater level of lower motor neuron involvement, faster rate of functional decline and shorter survival. The metabolic index could be important for informing prognosis in ALS. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nahum, A.E.

1996-01-01

The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s a can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s a . The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs

Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nahum, A E [The Royal Marsden Hospital, London (United Kingdom). Joint Dept. of Physics

1996-08-01

The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s{sub a} can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s{sub a}. The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs.

Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

2014-02-01

Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A nonparametric approach to medical survival data: Uncertainty in the context of risk in mortality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janurová, Kateřina; Briš, Radim

2014-01-01

Medical survival right-censored data of about 850 patients are evaluated to analyze the uncertainty related to the risk of mortality on one hand and compare two basic surgery techniques in the context of risk of mortality on the other hand. Colorectal data come from patients who underwent colectomy in the University Hospital of Ostrava. Two basic surgery operating techniques are used for the colectomy: either traditional (open) or minimally invasive (laparoscopic). Basic question arising at the colectomy operation is, which type of operation to choose to guarantee longer overall survival time. Two non-parametric approaches have been used to quantify probability of mortality with uncertainties. In fact, complement of the probability to one, i.e. survival function with corresponding confidence levels is calculated and evaluated. First approach considers standard nonparametric estimators resulting from both the Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival function in connection with Greenwood's formula and the Nelson–Aalen estimator of cumulative hazard function including confidence interval for survival function as well. The second innovative approach, represented by Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI), uses lower and upper probabilities for quantifying uncertainty and provides a model of predictive survival function instead of the population survival function. The traditional log-rank test on one hand and the nonparametric predictive comparison of two groups of lifetime data on the other hand have been compared to evaluate risk of mortality in the context of mentioned surgery techniques. The size of the difference between two groups of lifetime data has been considered and analyzed as well. Both nonparametric approaches led to the same conclusion, that the minimally invasive operating technique guarantees the patient significantly longer survival time in comparison with the traditional operating technique

Joint probabilities reproducing three EPR experiments on two qubits

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roy, S. M.; Atkinson, D.; Auberson, G.; Mahoux, G.; Singh, V.

2007-01-01

An eight-parameter family of the most general non-negative quadruple probabilities is constructed for EPR-Bohm-Aharonov experiments when only three pairs of analyser settings are used. It is a simultaneous representation of three different Bohr-incompatible experimental configurations involving

A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Strauch

2018-02-01

Full Text Available We develop a hydroclimatological approach to the modeling of regional shallow landslide initiation that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions of parameter uncertainty to estimate an annual probability of landslide initiation based on Monte Carlo simulations. The physically based model couples the infinite-slope stability model with a steady-state subsurface flow representation and operates in a digital elevation model. Spatially distributed gridded data for soil properties and vegetation classification are used for parameter estimation of probability distributions that characterize model input uncertainty. Hydrologic forcing to the model is through annual maximum daily recharge to subsurface flow obtained from a macroscale hydrologic model. We demonstrate the model in a steep mountainous region in northern Washington, USA, over 2700 km2. The influence of soil depth on the probability of landslide initiation is investigated through comparisons among model output produced using three different soil depth scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of soil depth and its potential long-term variability. We found elevation-dependent patterns in probability of landslide initiation that showed the stabilizing effects of forests at low elevations, an increased landslide probability with forest decline at mid-elevations (1400 to 2400 m, and soil limitation and steep topographic controls at high alpine elevations and in post-glacial landscapes. These dominant controls manifest themselves in a bimodal distribution of spatial annual landslide probability. Model testing with limited observations revealed similarly moderate model confidence for the three hazard maps, suggesting suitable use as relative hazard products. The model is available as a component in Landlab, an open-source, Python-based landscape earth systems modeling environment, and is designed to be easily reproduced utilizing HydroShare cyberinfrastructure.

A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab

Science.gov (United States)

Strauch, Ronda; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Nudurupati, Sai Siddhartha; Bandaragoda, Christina; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Tucker, Gregory E.

2018-02-01

We develop a hydroclimatological approach to the modeling of regional shallow landslide initiation that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions of parameter uncertainty to estimate an annual probability of landslide initiation based on Monte Carlo simulations. The physically based model couples the infinite-slope stability model with a steady-state subsurface flow representation and operates in a digital elevation model. Spatially distributed gridded data for soil properties and vegetation classification are used for parameter estimation of probability distributions that characterize model input uncertainty. Hydrologic forcing to the model is through annual maximum daily recharge to subsurface flow obtained from a macroscale hydrologic model. We demonstrate the model in a steep mountainous region in northern Washington, USA, over 2700 km2. The influence of soil depth on the probability of landslide initiation is investigated through comparisons among model output produced using three different soil depth scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of soil depth and its potential long-term variability. We found elevation-dependent patterns in probability of landslide initiation that showed the stabilizing effects of forests at low elevations, an increased landslide probability with forest decline at mid-elevations (1400 to 2400 m), and soil limitation and steep topographic controls at high alpine elevations and in post-glacial landscapes. These dominant controls manifest themselves in a bimodal distribution of spatial annual landslide probability. Model testing with limited observations revealed similarly moderate model confidence for the three hazard maps, suggesting suitable use as relative hazard products. The model is available as a component in Landlab, an open-source, Python-based landscape earth systems modeling environment, and is designed to be easily reproduced utilizing HydroShare cyberinfrastructure.

Genetic parameters and factors influencing survival to 24 hrs after birth in Danish meat sheep breeds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maxa, J; Sharifi, A R; Pedersen, J

2009-01-01

In this study, influential factors and (co)variance components for survival to 24 h after birth were determined and estimated for Texel, Shropshire, and Oxford Down, the most common sheep breeds in Denmark. Data from 1992 to 2006 containing 138,813 survival records were extracted from the sheep...... recording database at the Danish Agricultural Advisory Service. Estimation of (co)variance components was carried out using univariate animal models, applying logistic link functions. The logistic functions were also used for estimation of fixed effects. Both direct and maternal additive genetic effects......, as well as common litter effects, were included in the models. The mean survival to 24 h after birth was 92.5, 91.7, and 88.5% for Texel, Shropshire, and Oxford Down, respectively. There was a curvilinear relationship between survival to 24 h after birth and birth weight, with survival less for light...

Scaling Qualitative Probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2017-01-01

There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

Analyzing survival curves at a fixed point in time for paired and clustered right-censored data

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan; Lee, Chun-Yi; Shyr, Yu; Liao, Yi-De

2018-01-01

In clinical trials, information about certain time points may be of interest in making decisions about treatment effectiveness. Rather than comparing entire survival curves, researchers can focus on the comparison at fixed time points that may have a clinical utility for patients. For two independent samples of right-censored data, Klein et al. (2007) compared survival probabilities at a fixed time point by studying a number of tests based on some transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimators of the survival function. However, to compare the survival probabilities at a fixed time point for paired right-censored data or clustered right-censored data, their approach would need to be modified. In this paper, we extend the statistics to accommodate the possible within-paired correlation and within-clustered correlation, respectively. We use simulation studies to present comparative results. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of these methods using two real data sets. PMID:29456280

Undetected error probability for data services in a terrestrial DAB single frequency network

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schiphorst, Roelof; Hoeksema, F.W.; Slump, Cornelis H.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.; Veldhuis, R.N.J.; Cronie, H.S.

2007-01-01

DAB (Digital Audio Broadcasting) is the European successor of FM radio. Besides audio services, other services such as traffic information can be provided. An important parameter for data services is the probability of non-recognized or undetected errors in the system. To derive this probability, we

Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

1980-09-01

A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

Clinical variables serve as prognostic factors in a model for survival from glioblastoma multiforme

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Michaelsen, Signe Regner; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Grunnet, Kirsten

2013-01-01

Although implementation of temozolomide (TMZ) as a part of primary therapy for glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) has resulted in improved patient survival, the disease is still incurable. Previous studies have correlated various parameters to survival, although no single parameter has yet been...

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miller, Eric; Konan, Arnaud; Duran, Adam

2017-03-28

Accurate vehicle parameters are valuable for design, modeling, and reporting. Estimating vehicle parameters can be a very time-consuming process requiring tightly-controlled experimentation. This work describes a method to estimate vehicle parameters such as mass, coefficient of drag/frontal area, and rolling resistance using data logged during standard vehicle operation. The method uses Monte Carlo to generate parameter sets which is fed to a variant of the road load equation. Modeled road load is then compared to measured load to evaluate the probability of the parameter set. Acceptance of a proposed parameter set is determined using the probability ratio to the current state, so that the chain history will give a distribution of parameter sets. Compared to a single value, a distribution of possible values provides information on the quality of estimates and the range of possible parameter values. The method is demonstrated by estimating dynamometer parameters. Results confirm the method's ability to estimate reasonable parameter sets, and indicates an opportunity to increase the certainty of estimates through careful selection or generation of the test drive cycle.

Probability analysis of WWER-1000 fuel elements behavior under steady-state, transient and accident conditions of reactor operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tutnov, A.; Alexeev, E.

2001-01-01

'PULSAR-2' and 'PULSAR+' codes make it possible to simulate thermo-mechanical and thermo-physical parameters of WWER fuel elements. The probabilistic approach is used instead of traditional deterministic one to carry out a sensitive study of fuel element behavior under steady-state operation mode. Fuel elements initial parameters are given as a density of the probability distributions. Calculations are provided for all possible combinations of initial data as fuel-cladding gap, fuel density and gas pressure. Dividing values of these parameters to intervals final variants for calculations are obtained . Intervals of permissible fuel-cladding gap size have been divided to 10 equal parts, fuel density and gas pressure - to 5 parts. Probability of each variant realization is determined by multiplying the probabilities of separate parameters, because the tolerances of these parameters are distributed independently. Simulation results are turn out in the probabilistic bar charts. The charts present probability distribution of the changes in fuel outer diameter, hoop stress kinetics and fuel temperature versus irradiation time. A normative safety factor is introduced for control of any criterion realization and for determination of a reserve to the criteria failure. A probabilistic analysis of fuel element behavior under Reactivity Initiating Accident (RIA) is also performed and probability fuel element depressurization under hypothetical RIA is presented

Assessing survival of Mid-Columbia River released juvenile salmonids at McNary Dam, Washington, 2008-09

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Scott D.; Walker, Christopher E.; Brewer, Scott J.; Adams, Noah S.

2010-01-01

Few studies have evaluated survival of juvenile salmon over long river reaches in the Columbia River and information regarding the survival of sockeye salmon at lower Columbia River dams is lacking. To address these information gaps, the U.S. Geological Survey was contracted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to evaluate the possibility of using tagged fish released in the Mid-Columbia River to assess passage and survival at and downstream of McNary Dam. Using the acoustic telemetry systems already in place for a passage and survival study at McNary Dam, fish released from the tailraces of Wells, Rocky Reach, Rock Island, Wanapum, and Priest Rapids Dams were detected at McNary Dam and at the subsequent downstream arrays. These data were used to generate route-specific survival probabilities using single-release models from fish released in the Mid-Columbia River. We document trends in passage and survival probabilities at McNary Dam for yearling Chinook and sockeye salmon and juvenile steelhead released during studies in the Mid-Columbia River. Trends in the survival and passage of these juvenile salmonid species are presented and discussed. However, comparisons made across years and between study groups are not possible because of differences in the source of the test fish, the type of acoustic tags used, the absence of the use of passive integrated transponder tags in some of the release groups, differences in tagging and release protocols, annual differences in dam operations and configurations, differences in how the survival models were constructed (that is, number of routes that could be estimated given the number of fish detected), and the number and length of reaches included in the analysis (downstream reach length and arrays). Despite these differences, the data we present offer a unique opportunity to examine the migration behavior and survival of a group of fish that otherwise would not be studied. This is particularly true for sockeye salmon because

Sensor Fusion Based on an Integrated Neural Network and Probability Density Function (PDF) Dual Kalman Filter for On-Line Estimation of Vehicle Parameters and States.

Science.gov (United States)

Vargas-Melendez, Leandro; Boada, Beatriz L; Boada, Maria Jesus L; Gauchia, Antonio; Diaz, Vicente

2017-04-29

Vehicles with a high center of gravity (COG), such as light trucks and heavy vehicles, are prone to rollover. This kind of accident causes nearly 33 % of all deaths from passenger vehicle crashes. Nowadays, these vehicles are incorporating roll stability control (RSC) systems to improve their safety. Most of the RSC systems require the vehicle roll angle as a known input variable to predict the lateral load transfer. The vehicle roll angle can be directly measured by a dual antenna global positioning system (GPS), but it is expensive. For this reason, it is important to estimate the vehicle roll angle from sensors installed onboard in current vehicles. On the other hand, the knowledge of the vehicle's parameters values is essential to obtain an accurate vehicle response. Some of vehicle parameters cannot be easily obtained and they can vary over time. In this paper, an algorithm for the simultaneous on-line estimation of vehicle's roll angle and parameters is proposed. This algorithm uses a probability density function (PDF)-based truncation method in combination with a dual Kalman filter (DKF), to guarantee that both vehicle's states and parameters are within bounds that have a physical meaning, using the information obtained from sensors mounted on vehicles. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

2001-01-01

Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3

Could brown bears (Ursus arctos) have survived in Ireland during the Last Glacial Maximum?

Science.gov (United States)

Leonard, Saoirse A; Risley, Claire L; Turvey, Samuel T

2013-08-23

Brown bears are recorded from Ireland during both the Late Pleistocene and early-mid Holocene. Although most of the Irish landmass was covered by an ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Irish brown bears are known to have hybridized with polar bears during the Late Pleistocene, and it is suggested that the Irish brown bear population did not become extinct but instead persisted in situ through the LGM in a southwestern ice-free refugium. We use historical population modelling to demonstrate that brown bears are highly unlikely to have survived through the LGM in Ireland under any combination of life-history parameters shown by living bear populations, but instead would have rapidly become extinct following advance of the British-Irish ice sheet, and probably recolonized Ireland during the end-Pleistocene Woodgrange Interstadial from a closely related nearby source population. The time available for brown bear-polar bear hybridization was therefore restricted to narrow periods at the beginning or end of the LGM. Brown bears would have been extremely vulnerable to extinction in Quaternary habitat refugia and required areas substantially larger than southwestern Ireland to survive adverse glacial conditions.

Production of 147Eu for gamma-ray emission probability measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katoh, Keiji; Marnada, Nada; Miyahara, Hiroshi

2002-01-01

Gamma-ray emission probability is one of the most important decay parameters of radionuclide and many researchers are paying efforts to improve the certainty of it. The certainties of γ-ray emission probabilities for neutron-rich nuclides are being improved little by little, but the improvements of those for proton-rich nuclides are still insufficient. Europium-147 that decays by electron capture or β + -particle emission is a proton-rich nuclide and the γ-ray emission probabilities evaluated by Mateosian and Peker have large uncertainties. They referred to only one report concerning with γ-ray emission probabilities. Our final purpose is to determine the precise γ-ray emission probabilities of 147 Eu from disintegration rates and γ-ray intensities by using a 4πβ-γ coincidence apparatus. Impurity nuclides affect largely to the determination of disintegration rate; therefore, a highly pure 147 Eu source is required. This short note will describe the most proper energy for 147 Eu production through 147 Sm(p, n) reaction. (author)

Sexual selection, redundancy and survival of the most beautiful

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

A model is described of a highly redundant complex organism that has overlapping banks of genes such that each vital function is specified by several different genetic systems. This generates a synergistic profile linking probability of survival to the number of deleterious mutations in the genome. Computer models show ...

METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Plotnikova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article describes the method for the forest fire burn probability estimation on a base of Poisson distribution. The λ parameter is assumed to be a mean daily number of fires detected for each Forest Fire Danger Index class within specific period of time. Thus, λ was calculated for spring, summer and autumn seasons separately. Multi-annual daily Forest Fire Danger Index values together with EO-derived hot spot map were input data for the statistical analysis. The major result of the study is generation of the database on forest fire burn probability. Results were validated against EO daily data on forest fires detected over Irkutsk oblast in 2013. Daily weighted average probability was shown to be linked with the daily number of detected forest fires. Meanwhile, there was found a number of fires which were developed when estimated probability was low. The possible explanation of this phenomenon was provided.

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

Complexity for survival of livings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zak, Michail [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Advance Computing Algorithms and IVHM Group, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States)]. E-mail: Michail.Zak@jpl.nasa.gov

2007-05-15

A connection between survivability of livings and complexity of their behavior is established. New physical paradigms-exchange of information via reflections, and chain of abstractions-explaining and describing progressive evolution of complexity in living (active) systems are introduced. A biological origin of these paradigms is associated with a recently discovered mirror neuron that is able to learn by imitation. As a result, an active element possesses the self-nonself images and interacts with them creating the world of mental dynamics. Three fundamental types of complexity of mental dynamics that contribute to survivability are identified. Mathematical model of the corresponding active systems is described by coupled motor-mental dynamics represented by Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, respectively, while the progressive evolution of complexity is provided by nonlinear evolution of probability density. Application of the proposed formalism to modeling common-sense-based decision-making process is discussed.

Complexity for survival of livings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zak, Michail

2007-01-01

A connection between survivability of livings and complexity of their behavior is established. New physical paradigms-exchange of information via reflections, and chain of abstractions-explaining and describing progressive evolution of complexity in living (active) systems are introduced. A biological origin of these paradigms is associated with a recently discovered mirror neuron that is able to learn by imitation. As a result, an active element possesses the self-nonself images and interacts with them creating the world of mental dynamics. Three fundamental types of complexity of mental dynamics that contribute to survivability are identified. Mathematical model of the corresponding active systems is described by coupled motor-mental dynamics represented by Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, respectively, while the progressive evolution of complexity is provided by nonlinear evolution of probability density. Application of the proposed formalism to modeling common-sense-based decision-making process is discussed

Starvation-survival of subsurface bacteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magill, N.G.

1988-01-01

The ability of four subsurface isolates to survive starvation was examined and the results were compared to survival curves obtained for Escherichia coli B and Serratia marcescens. To examine the starvation-survival phenomenon further, several experimental parameters including nutritional history, initial cell density, growth phase, temperature of growth and starvation, and aeration. Nutritional history, initial cell density, and growth phases of the cells had some effect on the ability of these bacteria to survive whereas temperature and limited aeration had no effect under the conditions tested. No conditions were found where E. coli B or Serratia marcescens died rapidly or where less than 10% of the original cell number of viable cells remained. Because the apparent survival of these bacteria may be due to cryptic growth, cross-feeding experiments with 14 C-labeled cells and unlabeled cells were carried out with E. coli B and Pseudomonas Lula V. Leaked extracellular 14 C-compounds were not used for growth or maintenance energy, and were not taken up by either bacterium. Cryptic growth did not occur; the cells were truly starving under the experimental conditions used

Analysis of probability of defects in the disposal canisters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.-E.; Kuusela, P.

2011-06-01

This report presents a probability model for the reliability of the spent nuclear waste final disposal canister. Reliability means here that the welding of the canister lid has no critical defects from the long-term safety point of view. From the reliability point of view, both the reliability of the welding process (that no critical defects will be born) and the non-destructive testing (NDT) process (all critical defects will be detected) are equally important. In the probability model, critical defects in a weld were simplified into a few types. Also the possibility of human errors in the NDT process was taken into account in a simple manner. At this moment there is very little representative data to determine the reliability of welding and also the data on NDT is not well suited for the needs of this study. Therefore calculations presented here are based on expert judgements and on several assumptions that have not been verified yet. The Bayesian probability model shows the importance of the uncertainty in the estimation of the reliability parameters. The effect of uncertainty is that the probability distribution of the number of defective canisters becomes flat for larger numbers of canisters compared to the binomial probability distribution in case of known parameter values. In order to reduce the uncertainty, more information is needed from both the reliability of the welding and NDT processes. It would also be important to analyse the role of human factors in these processes since their role is not reflected in typical test data which is used to estimate 'normal process variation'.The reported model should be seen as a tool to quantify the roles of different methods and procedures in the weld inspection process. (orig.)

Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

2017-12-01

We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassinelli, G.

1979-01-01

The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesse Whittington

Full Text Available Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071 for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975 for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981 for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024 for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948 for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957 for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative

A study of V79 cell survival after for proton and carbon ion beams as represented by the parameters of Katz' track structure model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grzanka, Leszek; Waligórski, M. P. R.; Bassler, Niels

different sets of data obtained for the same cell line and different ions, measured at different laboratories, we have fitted model parameters to a set of carbon-irradiated V79 cells, published by Furusawa et al. (2), and to a set of proton-irradiated V79 cells, published by Wouters et al. (3), separately....... We found that values of model parameters best fitted to the carbon data of Furusawa et al. yielded predictions of V79 survival after proton irradiation which did not match the V79 proton data of Wouters et al. Fitting parameters to both sets combined did not improve the accuracy of model predictions...... carbon irradiation. 1. Katz, R., Track structure in radiobiology and in radiation detection. Nuclear Track Detection 2: 1-28 (1978). 2. Furusawa Y. et al. Inactivation of aerobic and hypoxic cells from three different cell lines by accelerated 3He-, 12C- and 20Ne beams. Radiat Res. 2012 Jan; 177...

p53/Surviving Ratio as a Parameter for Chemotherapy Induction Response in Children with Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rinaldi Lenggana

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Acute myeloid leukemia (AML is a malignancy that is often found in children. Many studies into the failure of apoptosis function, or programmed cell death, is one of the most important regulatory mechanisms of cellular hemostasis which is closely linked to the development of cancer, are important. Also, regulation of the apoptotic (p53 and anti-apoptotic (surviving proteins influence treatment outcome. One role of p53 is to monitor cellular stress necessary to induce apoptosis. Surviving (BIRC5 is a group of proteins in the apoptosis inhibitor which works by inhibiting caspase-3. The role of surviving is considered very important in oncogenesis proliferation and cell growth regulation. Chemotherapy in childhood AML can inhibit cell growth and induce slowing as well as stopping the cell cycle. Thus, the aim of this study was to compare p53 and surviving before and after receiving induction chemotherapy in children with AML and also to determine the p53/surviving ratio. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were collected from AML children before treatment and three months after starting their induction therapy. p53 and surviving were measured by flowcytometry using monoclonal antibodies. Data were analyzed by t-test for comparison between groups and Spearman’s test to find out the correlation between variables with a significant value of p < 0.05. A total of 8 children were evaluated. The intensity of p53 expression was not significantly increased after induction phase chemotherapy (p = 0.224, but surviving expression and the ratio of p53/surviving were significantly increased in the treatment group compared with the levels prior to chemotherapy (p = 0.002, p = 0.034, and there was a strong negative correlation between p53 and surviving after chemotherapy (r = −0.63, p = 0.049.

Earthquake Probability Assessment for the Active Faults in Central Taiwan: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi-Rui Lee

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Frequent high seismic activities occur in Taiwan due to fast plate motions. According to the historical records the most destructive earthquakes in Taiwan were caused mainly by inland active faults. The Central Geological Survey (CGS of Taiwan has published active fault maps in Taiwan since 1998. There are 33 active faults noted in the 2012 active fault map. After the Chi-Chi earthquake, CGS launched a series of projects to investigate the details to better understand each active fault in Taiwan. This article collected this data to develop active fault parameters and referred to certain experiences from Japan and the United States to establish a methodology for earthquake probability assessment via active faults. We consider the active faults in Central Taiwan as a good example to present the earthquake probability assessment process and results. The appropriate “probability model” was used to estimate the conditional probability where M ≥ 6.5 and M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. Our result shows that the highest earthquake probability for M ≥ 6.5 earthquake occurring in 30, 50, and 100 years in Central Taiwan is the Tachia-Changhua fault system. Conversely, the lowest earthquake probability is the Chelungpu fault. The goal of our research is to calculate the earthquake probability of the 33 active faults in Taiwan. The active fault parameters are important information that can be applied in the following seismic hazard analysis and seismic simulation.

Survival Analysis of Patients with End Stage Renal Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Urrutia, J. D.; Gayo, W. S.; Bautista, L. A.; Baccay, E. B.

2015-06-01

This paper provides a survival analysis of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) under Kaplan-Meier Estimates and Weibull Distribution. The data were obtained from the records of V. L. MakabaliMemorial Hospital with respect to time t (patient's age), covariates such as developed secondary disease (Pulmonary Congestion and Cardiovascular Disease), gender, and the event of interest: the death of ESRD patients. Survival and hazard rates were estimated using NCSS for Weibull Distribution and SPSS for Kaplan-Meier Estimates. These lead to the same conclusion that hazard rate increases and survival rate decreases of ESRD patient diagnosed with Pulmonary Congestion, Cardiovascular Disease and both diseases with respect to time. It also shows that female patients have a greater risk of death compared to males. The probability risk was given the equation R = 1 — e-H(t) where e-H(t) is the survival function, H(t) the cumulative hazard function which was created using Cox-Regression.

Cultivation of sponge larvae: settlement, survival, and growth of juveniles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Caralt, de S.; Otjens, H.; Uriz, M.J.; Wijffels, R.H.

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to culture sponge juveniles from larvae. Starting from larvae we expected to enhance the survival and growth, and to decrease the variation in these parameters during the sponge cultures. First, settlement success, morphological changes during metamorphosis, and survival of

[Nonparametric method of estimating survival functions containing right-censored and interval-censored data].

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yonghong; Gao, Xiaohuan; Wang, Zhengxi

2014-04-01

Missing data represent a general problem in many scientific fields, especially in medical survival analysis. Dealing with censored data, interpolation method is one of important methods. However, most of the interpolation methods replace the censored data with the exact data, which will distort the real distribution of the censored data and reduce the probability of the real data falling into the interpolation data. In order to solve this problem, we in this paper propose a nonparametric method of estimating the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data and compare its performance to SC (self-consistent) algorithm. Comparing to the average interpolation and the nearest neighbor interpolation method, the proposed method in this paper replaces the right-censored data with the interval-censored data, and greatly improves the probability of the real data falling into imputation interval. Then it bases on the empirical distribution theory to estimate the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data. The results of numerical examples and a real breast cancer data set demonstrated that the proposed method had higher accuracy and better robustness for the different proportion of the censored data. This paper provides a good method to compare the clinical treatments performance with estimation of the survival data of the patients. This pro vides some help to the medical survival data analysis.

Continuation of probability density functions using a generalized Lyapunov approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baars, S.; Viebahn, J. P.; Mulder, T. E.; Kuehn, C.; Wubs, F. W.; Dijkstra, H. A.

2017-01-01

Techniques from numerical bifurcation theory are very useful to study transitions between steady fluid flow patterns and the instabilities involved. Here, we provide computational methodology to use parameter continuation in determining probability density functions of systems of stochastic partial

Geometric and Dosimetric Approach to Determine Probability of Late Cardiac Mortality in Left Tangential Breast Irradiation: Comparison Between Wedged Beams and Field-in-Field Technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pili, Giorgio; Grimaldi, Luca; Fidanza, Christian; Florio, Elena T.; Petruzzelli, Maria F.; D'Errico, Maria P.; De Tommaso, Cristina; Tramacere, Francesco; Musaio, Francesca; Castagna, Roberta; Francavilla, Maria C.; Gianicolo, Emilio A.L.; Portaluri, Maurizio

2011-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the probability of late cardiac mortality resulting from left breast irradiation planned with tangential fields and to compare this probability between the wedged beam and field-in-field (FIF) techniques and to investigate whether some geometric/dosimetric indicators can be determined to estimate the cardiac mortality probability before treatment begins. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, differential dose-volume histograms were calculated for the wedged beam and FIF plans, and the corresponding cardiac mortality probabilities were determined using the relative seriality model. As a comparative index of the dose distribution uniformity, the planning target volume (PTV) percentages involved in 97-103% of prescribed dose were determined for the two techniques. Three geometric parameters were measured for each patient: the maximal length, indicates how much the heart contours were displaced toward the PTV, the angle subtended at the center of the computed tomography slice by the PTV contour, and the thorax width/thickness ratio. Results: Evaluating the differential dose-volume histograms showed that the gain in uniformity between the two techniques was about 1.5. With the FIF technique, the mean dose sparing for the heart, the left anterior descending coronary artery, and the lung was 15% (2.5 Gy vs. 2.2 Gy), 21% (11.3 Gy vs. 9.0 Gy), and 42% (8.0 Gy vs. 4.6 Gy) respectively, compared with the wedged beam technique. Also, the cardiac mortality probability decreased by 40% (from 0.9% to 0.5%). Three geometric parameters, the maximal length, angle subtended at the center of the computed tomography slice by the PTV contour, and thorax width/thickness ratio, were the determining factors (p = .06 for FIF, and p = .10 for wedged beam) for evaluating the cardiac mortality probability. Conclusion: The FIF technique seemed to yield a lower cardiac mortality probability than the conventional wedged beam technique. However, although our study

Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

2004-01-01

Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

Variation in the standard deviation of the lure rating distribution: Implications for estimates of recollection probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Dopkins, Stephen; Varner, Kaitlin; Hoyer, Darin

2017-10-01

In word recognition semantic priming of test words increased the false-alarm rate and the mean of confidence ratings to lures. Such priming also increased the standard deviation of confidence ratings to lures and the slope of the z-ROC function, suggesting that the priming increased the standard deviation of the lure evidence distribution. The Unequal Variance Signal Detection (UVSD) model interpreted the priming as increasing the standard deviation of the lure evidence distribution. Without additional parameters the Dual Process Signal Detection (DPSD) model could only accommodate the results by fitting the data for related and unrelated primes separately, interpreting the priming, implausibly, as decreasing the probability of target recollection (DPSD). With an additional parameter, for the probability of false (lure) recollection the model could fit the data for related and unrelated primes together, interpreting the priming as increasing the probability of false recollection. These results suggest that DPSD estimates of target recollection probability will decrease with increases in the lure confidence/evidence standard deviation unless a parameter is included for false recollection. Unfortunately the size of a given lure confidence/evidence standard deviation relative to other possible lure confidence/evidence standard deviations is often unspecified by context. Hence the model often has no way of estimating false recollection probability and thereby correcting its estimates of target recollection probability.

Statistical models based on conditional probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayanan, R.S.

1991-10-01

We present a formulation of statistical mechanics models based on conditional probability distribution rather than a Hamiltonian. We show that it is possible to realize critical phenomena through this procedure. Closely linked with this formulation is a Monte Carlo algorithm, in which a configuration generated is guaranteed to be statistically independent from any other configuration for all values of the parameters, in particular near the critical point. (orig.)

Supervivencia adulta y dinámica poblacional del lauchón orejudo Phyllotis darwini en Chile central Adult survival and population dynamics in the leaf-eared mouse Phyllotis darwini in central Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurent Crespin

2006-09-01

with a short generation time, adult survival should not be of such importance. Nonetheless, Yoccoz et al. (1998, Research Population Ecology 40: 107-121 hypothetized that, in small rodents, adult survival should be the demographic parameter driving the population growth rate if one considered a time scale of one month (instead of one year. As far as we know, this hypothesis has not yet been tested with empirical data. To test this hypothesis, we used five years of capture-mark-recapture data to estimate maturation and survival of a rodent, the leaf-eared mice, Phyllotis darwini, in a population of central Chile. This analysis revealed that the probabilities of survival decreased with the average rainfall by year and that the probabilities of maturation decreased with the abundance of the population. Using the probabilities of survival and maturation, we built up a seasonal matrix model and use perturbation analysis (elasticity to be able to actually measure the relative importance of each demographic parameter to the population growth rate. Environmental seasonality was incorporated in the model by using a rainfall season, of five months long, and a dry season. Adult survival was indeed the demographic parameter with the highest elasticity. Such a result plainly supported thus the hypothesis of Yoccoz et al. (1998

Interpretation of the results of statistical measurements. [search for basic probability model

Science.gov (United States)

Olshevskiy, V. V.

1973-01-01

For random processes, the calculated probability characteristic, and the measured statistical estimate are used in a quality functional, which defines the difference between the two functions. Based on the assumption that the statistical measurement procedure is organized so that the parameters for a selected model are optimized, it is shown that the interpretation of experimental research is a search for a basic probability model.

Bayesian Prior Probability Distributions for Internal Dosimetry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.; Little, T.T.; Martz, H.F.; Schillaci, M.E

2001-07-01

The problem of choosing a prior distribution for the Bayesian interpretation of measurements (specifically internal dosimetry measurements) is considered using a theoretical analysis and by examining historical tritium and plutonium urine bioassay data from Los Alamos. Two models for the prior probability distribution are proposed: (1) the log-normal distribution, when there is some additional information to determine the scale of the true result, and (2) the 'alpha' distribution (a simplified variant of the gamma distribution) when there is not. These models have been incorporated into version 3 of the Bayesian internal dosimetric code in use at Los Alamos (downloadable from our web site). Plutonium internal dosimetry at Los Alamos is now being done using prior probability distribution parameters determined self-consistently from population averages of Los Alamos data. (author)

COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

1979-01-01

1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

Predictors of survival among HIV-positive children on ART in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... 16(4): 335–343. Open Access article distributed in terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ... and adjusted hazard ratios respectively. The results reveal ... Children who were initiated early on ART had higher survival probability over time (HR: 0.35 [95% ..... workers they will have desirable clinical outcomes.

Analysis of the probability of channel satisfactory state in P2P live ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this paper a model based on user behaviour of P2P live streaming systems was developed in order to analyse one of the key QoS parameter of such systems, i.e. the probability of channel-satisfactory state, the impact of upload bandwidths and channels' popularity on the probability of channel-satisfactory state was also ...

Linking probabilities of off-lattice self-avoiding polygons and the effects of excluded volume

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirayama, Naomi; Deguchi, Tetsuo; Tsurusaki, Kyoichi

2009-01-01

We evaluate numerically the probability of linking, i.e. the probability of a given pair of self-avoiding polygons (SAPs) being entangled and forming a nontrivial link type L. In the simulation we generate pairs of SAPs of N spherical segments of radius r d such that they have no overlaps among the segments and each of the SAPs has the trivial knot type. We evaluate the probability of a self-avoiding pair of SAPs forming a given link type L for various link types with fixed distance R between the centers of mass of the two SAPs. We define normalized distance r by r=R/R g,0 1 where R g,0 1 denotes the square root of the mean square radius of gyration of SAP of the trivial knot 0 1 . We introduce formulae expressing the linking probability as a function of normalized distance r, which gives good fitting curves with respect to χ 2 values. We also investigate the dependence of linking probabilities on the excluded-volume parameter r d and the number of segments, N. Quite interestingly, the graph of linking probability versus normalized distance r shows no N-dependence at a particular value of the excluded volume parameter, r d = 0.2

On Probability Leakage

OpenAIRE

Briggs, William M.

2012-01-01

The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

Maximizing survivability of acyclic transmission networks with multi-state retransmitters and vulnerable nodes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levitin, Gregory

2002-01-01

In this paper, an algorithm for optimal allocation of multi-state elements (MEs) in acyclic transmission networks (ATNs) with vulnerable nodes is suggested. The ATNs consist of a number of positions (nodes) in which MEs capable of receiving and sending a signal are allocated. Each network has a root position where the signal source is located, a number of leaf positions that can only receive a signal, and a number of intermediate positions containing MEs capable of transmitting the received signal to some other nodes. Each ME that is located in a nonleaf node can have different states determined by a set of nodes receiving the signal directly from this ME. The probability of each state is assumed to be known for each ME. Each ATN node with all the MEs allocated at this node can be destroyed by external impact (common cause failure) with a given probability. The ATN survivability is defined as the probability that a signal from the root node is transmitted to each leaf node. The optimal distribution of MEs with different characteristics among ATN positions provides the greatest possible ATN survivability. It is shown that the node vulnerability index affects the optimal distribution. The suggested algorithm is based on using a universal generating function technique for network survivability evaluation. A genetic algorithm is used as the optimization tool. Illustrative examples are presented

Generic Degraded Configuration Probability Analysis for the Codisposal Waste Package

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

S.F.A. Deng; M. Saglam; L.J. Gratton

2001-01-01

In accordance with the technical work plan, ''Technical Work Plan For: Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel Work Packages'' (CRWMS M and O 2000c), this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is developed for the purpose of screening out degraded configurations for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) types. It performs the degraded configuration parameter and probability evaluations of the overall methodology specified in the ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2000, Section 3) to qualifying configurations. Degradation analyses are performed to assess realizable parameter ranges and physical regimes for configurations. Probability calculations are then performed for configurations characterized by k eff in excess of the Critical Limit (CL). The scope of this document is to develop a generic set of screening criteria or models to screen out degraded configurations having potential for exceeding a criticality limit. The developed screening criteria include arguments based on physical/chemical processes and probability calculations and apply to DOE SNF types when codisposed with the high-level waste (HLW) glass inside a waste package. The degradation takes place inside the waste package and is long after repository licensing has expired. The emphasis of this AMR is on degraded configuration screening and the probability analysis is one of the approaches used for screening. The intended use of the model is to apply the developed screening criteria to each DOE SNF type following the completion of the degraded mode criticality analysis internal to the waste package

A Validated Prediction Model for Overall Survival From Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Toward Survival Prediction for Individual Patients

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oberije, Cary, E-mail: cary.oberije@maastro.nl [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); De Ruysscher, Dirk [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); Universitaire Ziekenhuizen Leuven, KU Leuven (Belgium); Houben, Ruud [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); Heuvel, Michel van de; Uyterlinde, Wilma [Department of Thoracic Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Deasy, Joseph O. [Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York (United States); Belderbos, Jose [Department of Radiation Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Dingemans, Anne-Marie C. [Department of Pulmonology, University Hospital Maastricht, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht (Netherlands); Rimner, Andreas; Din, Shaun [Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York (United States); Lambin, Philippe [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands)

2015-07-15

Purpose: Although patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are homogeneous according to the TNM staging system, they form a heterogeneous group, which is reflected in the survival outcome. The increasing amount of information for an individual patient and the growing number of treatment options facilitate personalized treatment, but they also complicate treatment decision making. Decision support systems (DSS), which provide individualized prognostic information, can overcome this but are currently lacking. A DSS for stage III NSCLC requires the development and integration of multiple models. The current study takes the first step in this process by developing and validating a model that can provide physicians with a survival probability for an individual NSCLC patient. Methods and Materials: Data from 548 patients with stage III NSCLC were available to enable the development of a prediction model, using stratified Cox regression. Variables were selected by using a bootstrap procedure. Performance of the model was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally and on 2 external data sets (n=174 and n=130). Results: The final multivariate model, stratified for treatment, consisted of age, gender, World Health Organization performance status, overall treatment time, equivalent radiation dose, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The bootstrapped c statistic was 0.62. The model could identify risk groups in external data sets. Nomograms were constructed to predict an individual patient's survival probability ( (www.predictcancer.org)). The data set can be downloaded at (https://www.cancerdata.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2015.02.048). Conclusions: The prediction model for overall survival of patients with stage III NSCLC highlights the importance of combining patient, clinical, and treatment variables. Nomograms were developed and validated. This tool could be used as a first building block for a decision support system.

Survival and metamorphosis of low-density populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in streams following lampricide treatment

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Nicholas S.; Swink, William D.; Brenden, Travis O.; Slade, Jeffrey W.; Steeves, Todd B.; Fodale, Michael F.; Jones, Michael L.

2014-01-01

Sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus control in the Great Lakes primarily involves application of lampricides to streams where larval production occurs to kill larvae prior to their metamorphosing and entering the lakes as parasites (juveniles). Because lampricides are not 100% effective, larvae that survive treatment maymetamorphose before streams are again treated. Larvae that survive treatment have not beenwidely studied, so their dynamics are notwell understood.Wetagged and released larvae in six Great Lake tributaries following lampricide treatment and estimated vital demographic rates using multistate tag-recovery models. Model-averaged larval survivals ranged from 56.8 to 57.6%. Model-averaged adult recovery rates, which were the product of juvenile survivals and adult capture probabilities, ranged from 6.8 to 9.3%. Using stochastic simulations, we estimated production of juvenile sea lampreys from a hypothetical population of treatment survivors under different growth conditions based on parameter estimates from this research. For fast-growing populations, juvenile production peaked 2 years after treatment. For slow-growing populations, juvenile production was approximately one-third that of fast-growing populations,with production not peaking until 4 years after treatment. Our results suggest that dynamics (i.e., survival, metamorphosis) of residual larval populations are very similar to those of untreated larval populations. Consequently, residual populations do not necessarily warrant special consideration for the purpose of sea lamprey control and can be ranked for treatment along with other populations. Consecutive lampricide treatments, which are under evaluation by the sea lamprey control program, would bemost effective for reducing juvenile production in large, fast-growing populations.

Survival and metamorphosis of larval sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) residing in Lakes Michigan and Huron near river mouths

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Johnson, Nicholas S.; Brenden, Travis O.; Swink, William D.; Lipps, Mathew A.

2016-01-01

Although population demographics of larval lampreys in streams have been studied extensively, demographics in lake environments have not. Here, we estimated survival and rates of metamorphosis for larval sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) populations residing in the Great Lakes near river mouths (hereafter termed lentic areas). Tagged larvae were stocked and a Bayesian multi-state tag-recovery model was used to investigate population parameters associated with tag recovery, including survival and metamorphosis probabilities. Compared to previous studies of larvae in streams, larval growth in lentic areas was substantially slower (Brody growth coefficient = 0.00132; estimate based on the recovery of six tagged larvae), survival was slightly greater (annual survival = 63%), and the length at which 50% of the larvae would be expected to metamorphose was substantially shorter (126 mm). Stochastic simulations were used to estimate the production of parasitic stage (juvenile) sea lamprey from a hypothetical population of larvae in a lentic environment. Production of juvenile sea lamprey was substantial because, even though larval growth in these environments was slow relative to stream environments, survival was high and length at metamorphosis was less. However, estimated production of juvenile sea lamprey was less for the lentic environment than for similar simulations for river environments where larvae grew faster. In circumstances where the cost to kill a larva with lampricide was equal and control funds are limited, sea lamprey control effort may be best directed toward larvae in streams with fast-growing larvae, because stream-produced larvae will most likely contribute to juvenile sea lamprey populations.

Validation of a Predictive Model for Survival in Metastatic Cancer Patients Attending an Outpatient Palliative Radiotherapy Clinic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chow, Edward; Abdolell, Mohamed; Panzarella, Tony; Harris, Kristin; Bezjak, Andrea; Warde, Padraig; Tannock, Ian

2009-01-01

Purpose: To validate a predictive model for survival of patients attending a palliative radiotherapy clinic. Methods and Materials: We described previously a model that had good predictive value for survival of patients referred during 1999 (1). The six prognostic factors (primary cancer site, site of metastases, Karnofsky performance score, and the fatigue, appetite and shortness-of-breath items from the Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale) identified in this training set were extracted from the prospective database for the year 2000. We generated a partial score whereby each prognostic factor was assigned a value proportional to its prognostic weight. The sum of the partial scores for each patient was used to construct a survival prediction score (SPS). Patients were also grouped according to the number of these risk factors (NRF) that they possessed. The probability of survival at 3, 6, and 12 months was generated. The models were evaluated for their ability to predict survival in this validation set with appropriate statistical tests. Results: The median survival and survival probabilities of the training and validation sets were similar when separated into three groups using both SPS and NRF methods. There was no statistical difference in the performance of the SPS and NRF methods in survival prediction. Conclusion: Both the SPS and NRF models for predicting survival in patients referred for palliative radiotherapy have been validated. The NRF model is preferred because it is simpler and avoids the need to remember the weightings among the prognostic factors

Genetic variants determining survival and fertility in an adverse African environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koopman, Jacob J E; Pijpe, Jeroen; Böhringer, Stefan

2016-01-01

Human survival probability and fertility decline strongly with age. These life history traits have been shaped by evolution. However, research has failed to uncover a consistent genetic determination of variation in survival and fertility. As an explanation, such genetic determinants have been...... selected in adverse environments, in which humans have lived during most of their history, but are almost exclusively studied in populations in modern affluent environments. Here, we present a large-scale candidate gene association study in a rural African population living in an adverse environment...

Survival and failure modes: platform-switching for internal and external hexagon cemented fixed dental prostheses.

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Anchieta, Rodolfo B; Machado, Lucas S; Hirata, Ronaldo; Coelho, Paulo G; Bonfante, Estevam A

2016-10-01

This study evaluated the probability of survival (reliability) of platform-switched fixed dental prostheses (FDPs) cemented on different implant-abutment connection designs. Eighty-four-three-unit FDPs (molar pontic) were cemented on abutments connected to two implants of external or internal hexagon connection. Four groups (n = 21 each) were established: external hexagon connection and regular platform (ERC); external hexagon connection and switched platform (ESC); internal hexagon and regular platform (IRC); and internal hexagon and switched platform (ISC). Prostheses were subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing in water. Weibull curves and probability of survival for a mission of 100,000 cycles at 400 N (two-sided 90% CI) were calculated. The beta values of 0.22, 0.48, 0.50, and 1.25 for groups ERC, ESC, IRC, and ISC, respectively, indicated a limited role of fatigue in damage accumulation, except for group ISC. Survival decreased for both platform-switched groups (ESC: 74%, and ISC: 59%) compared with the regular matching platform counterparts (ERC: 95%, and IRC: 98%). Characteristic strength was higher only for ERC compared with ESC, but not different between internal connections. Failures chiefly involved the abutment screw. Platform switching decreased the probability of survival of FDPs on both external and internal connections. The absence in loss of characteristic strength observed in internal hexagon connections favor their use compared with platform-switched external hexagon connections. © 2016 Eur J Oral Sci.

Impact-parameter-averaged probability of 3dσ - Vacancy sharing in heavy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marble, D.K.; McDaniel, F.D.; Zoran, V.; Szilagyi, Z.; Piticu, I.; Fluerasu, D.; Enulescu, A.; Dumitriu, D.; Bucur, B.I.; Ciortea, C.

1993-01-01

The probabilities for the 3dσ molecular vacancy sharing in the 0.08 - 1.75 MeV/u F, Co, Ni, Cu + Bi collisions have been estimated by using integral X-ray spectrum measurement. The analytic two-state exponential model of Nikitin has been applied to 3dσ -2p 3/2 vacancy sharing in these collisions systems. This describes satisfactory the velocity dependence at low energies, < 0.5 MeV/u, but around 1 MeV/u the velocity dependence changes its character, indicating departure from the hypotheses of the model. (Author)

PWR reactor pressure vessel failure probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufresne, J.; Lanore, J.M.; Lucia, A.C.; Elbaz, J.; Brunnhuber, R.

1980-05-01

To evaluate the rupture probability of a LWR vessel a probabilistic method using the fracture mechanics under probabilistic form has been proposed previously, but it appears that more accurate evaluation is possible. In consequence a joint collaboration agreement signed in 1976 between CEA, EURATOM, JRC Ispra and FRAMATOME set up and started a research program covering three parts: a computer code development, data acquisition and processing, and a support experimental program which aims at clarifying the most important parameters used in the COVASTOL computer code

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice

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Regehr, E.V.; Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0 ∙ 96-0 ∙ 99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0 ∙ 73-0 ∙ 79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings

Covariate-adjusted Spearman's rank correlation with probability-scale residuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qi; Li, Chun; Wanga, Valentine; Shepherd, Bryan E

2018-06-01

It is desirable to adjust Spearman's rank correlation for covariates, yet existing approaches have limitations. For example, the traditionally defined partial Spearman's correlation does not have a sensible population parameter, and the conditional Spearman's correlation defined with copulas cannot be easily generalized to discrete variables. We define population parameters for both partial and conditional Spearman's correlation through concordance-discordance probabilities. The definitions are natural extensions of Spearman's rank correlation in the presence of covariates and are general for any orderable random variables. We show that they can be neatly expressed using probability-scale residuals (PSRs). This connection allows us to derive simple estimators. Our partial estimator for Spearman's correlation between X and Y adjusted for Z is the correlation of PSRs from models of X on Z and of Y on Z, which is analogous to the partial Pearson's correlation derived as the correlation of observed-minus-expected residuals. Our conditional estimator is the conditional correlation of PSRs. We describe estimation and inference, and highlight the use of semiparametric cumulative probability models, which allow preservation of the rank-based nature of Spearman's correlation. We conduct simulations to evaluate the performance of our estimators and compare them with other popular measures of association, demonstrating their robustness and efficiency. We illustrate our method in two applications, a biomarker study and a large survey. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Conditional probabilities in Ponzano-Regge minisuperspace

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petryk, Roman; Schleich, Kristin

2003-01-01

We examine the Hartle-Hawking no-boundary initial state for the Ponzano-Regge formulation of gravity in three dimensions. We consider the behavior of conditional probabilities and expectation values for geometrical quantities in this initial state for a simple minisuperspace model consisting of a two-parameter set of anisotropic geometries on a 2-sphere boundary. We find dependence on the cutoff used in the construction of Ponzano-Regge amplitudes for expectation values of edge lengths. However, these expectation values are cutoff independent when computed in certain, but not all, conditional probability distributions. Conditions that yield cutoff independent expectation values are those that constrain the boundary geometry to a finite range of edge lengths. We argue that such conditions have a correspondence to fixing a range of local time, as classically associated with the area of a surface for spatially closed cosmologies. Thus these results may hint at how classical spacetime emerges from quantum amplitudes

Biostatistics series module 9: Survival analysis

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Avijit Hazra

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Survival analysis is concerned with “time to event“ data. Conventionally, it dealt with cancer death as the event in question, but it can handle any event occurring over a time frame, and this need not be always adverse in nature. When the outcome of a study is the time to an event, it is often not possible to wait until the event in question has happened to all the subjects, for example, until all are dead. In addition, subjects may leave the study prematurely. Such situations lead to what is called censored observations as complete information is not available for these subjects. The data set is thus an assemblage of times to the event in question and times after which no more information on the individual is available. Survival analysis methods are the only techniques capable of handling censored observations without treating them as missing data. They also make no assumption regarding normal distribution of time to event data. Descriptive methods for exploring survival times in a sample include life table and Kaplan–Meier techniques as well as various kinds of distribution fitting as advanced modeling techniques. The Kaplan–Meier cumulative survival probability over time plot has become the signature plot for biomedical survival analysis. Several techniques are available for comparing the survival experience in two or more groups – the log-rank test is popularly used. This test can also be used to produce an odds ratio as an estimate of risk of the event in the test group; this is called hazard ratio (HR. Limitations of the traditional log-rank test have led to various modifications and enhancements. Finally, survival analysis offers different regression models for estimating the impact of multiple predictors on survival. Cox's proportional hazard model is the most general of the regression methods that allows the hazard function to be modeled on a set of explanatory variables without making restrictive assumptions concerning the

Perfluorinated and chlorinated pollutants as predictors of demographic parameters in an endangered seabird

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bustnes, Jan Ove; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Lorentsen, Svein-Hakon; Herzke, Dorte

2008-01-01

Despite global occurrence of several perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) the potential ecological effects of such substances on natural populations are not known. In endangered lesser black-backed gulls (Larus fuscus fuscus) on the Norwegian Coast, the blood concentrations of PFCs were as high as legacy organochlorines (OCs), and here we examined whether PFCs show associations similar to those of OCs to factors potentially affecting population growth, by evaluating relationships between contaminant concentrations and demographic parameters (reproductive performance and the probability of adults returning between breeding seasons). PFCs were not adversely associated with demographic parameters, while the most persistent OCs; notably PCB and p,p'-DDE, were adversely associated with early chick survival, and adult return rate. This study thus suggests that when the concentrations of PFCs and OCs are of similar magnitude in a gull population, OCs are more likely to cause adverse ecological effects. - When the concentrations of PFCs and OCs are of similar magnitude in a population of gulls, OCs seem to have a stronger propensity for causing adverse ecological effects

Effects of modifiable prehospital factors on survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in rural versus urban areas.

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Mathiesen, Wenche Torunn; Bjørshol, Conrad Arnfinn; Kvaløy, Jan Terje; Søreide, Eldar

2018-04-18

The modifiable prehospital system factors, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), emergency medical services (EMS), response time, and EMS physician attendance, may affect short- and long-term survival for both rural and urban out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. We studied how such factors influenced OHCA survival in a mixed urban/rural region with a high survival rate after OHCA. We analyzed the association between modifiable prehospital factors and survival to different stages of care in 1138 medical OHCA patients from an Utstein template-based cardiac arrest registry, using Kaplan-Meier type survival curves, univariable and multivariable logistic regression and mortality hazard plots. We found a significantly higher probability for survival to hospital admission (OR: 1.84, 95% CI 1.43-2.36, p rural group. In patients receiving bystander CPR before EMS arrival, the odds of survival to hospital discharge increased more than threefold (OR: 3.05, 95% CI 2.00-4.65, p rural areas, patients with EMS physician attendance had an overall better survival to hospital discharge (survival probability 0.17 with EMS physician vs. 0.05 without EMS physician, p = 0.019). Adjusted for modifiable factors, the survival differences remained. Overall, OHCA survival was higher in urban compared to rural areas, and the effect of bystander CPR, EMS response time and EMS physician attendance on survival differ between urban and rural areas. The effect of modifiable factors on survival was highest in the prehospital stage of care. In patients surviving to hospital admission, there was no significant difference in in-hospital mortality or in 1 year mortality between OHCA in rural versus urban areas.

Survival after cystectomy in infiltrating bladder cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mandron, E.; Desrez, G.; Chatelain, C.

1998-01-01

We reviewed the results of infiltrating bladder cancer treated by radical cystectomy to evaluate cancer treated by radical cystectomy to evaluate survival. Between January 1989 and December 1992, a total of 58 consecutive cystectomies or anterior pelvic exenterations performed on 48 men and 10 women (mean age 63.2 years) in our department were retrospectively evaluated. Four patients were lost to follow-up and the mean follow-up was 72 months. Pathologic staging was as follows: stage pTO,A,1: 13.5%, stage pT2: 17.5%, stage pT3a: 12%, stage pT3b: stage pT4: 21%. The year probability of the overall survival was 60% for pT2-p T3a patients, 15% for pT3b patients, and 9% for pT4 patients, respectively. Overall, 53.5% of patients died of cancer, 7.5% of intercurrent disease, and 39% were alive. The cancer related death rate was 12% for pT2-pT3a patients, and 82% for pT3b-pT4 patients. The 5- year probability of specific survival was 80% for pT2-pT3a patients, 15% for pT3b patients and 9% for pT4 patients, respectively. Infiltrating bladder cancer still has a high mortality rate. Radical cystectomy may be considered to be a curative procedure for stages pT2 and pT3a. Adjuvant chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy seem necessary at stages pT3 and pT4. Preoperative criteria need to be better defined to reduce understanding. (authors)

Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vourdas, A.

2014-01-01

The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H 1 ,H 2 ), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H 1 ),P(H 2 ), to the subspaces H 1 , H 2 . As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities

Quantitative non-monotonic modeling of economic uncertainty by probability and possibility distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

2012-01-01

uncertainty can be calculated. The possibility approach is particular well suited for representation of uncertainty of a non-statistical nature due to lack of knowledge and requires less information than the probability approach. Based on the kind of uncertainty and knowledge present, these aspects...... to the understanding of similarities and differences of the two approaches as well as practical applications. The probability approach offers a good framework for representation of randomness and variability. Once the probability distributions of uncertain parameters and their correlations are known the resulting...... are thoroughly discussed in the case of rectangular representation of uncertainty by the uniform probability distribution and the interval, respectively. Also triangular representations are dealt with and compared. Calculation of monotonic as well as non-monotonic functions of variables represented...

Link importance incorporated failure probability measuring solution for multicast light-trees in elastic optical networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xin; Zhang, Lu; Tang, Ying; Huang, Shanguo

2018-03-01

The light-tree-based optical multicasting (LT-OM) scheme provides a spectrum- and energy-efficient method to accommodate emerging multicast services. Some studies focus on the survivability technologies for LTs against a fixed number of link failures, such as single-link failure. However, a few studies involve failure probability constraints when building LTs. It is worth noting that each link of an LT plays different important roles under failure scenarios. When calculating the failure probability of an LT, the importance of its every link should be considered. We design a link importance incorporated failure probability measuring solution (LIFPMS) for multicast LTs under independent failure model and shared risk link group failure model. Based on the LIFPMS, we put forward the minimum failure probability (MFP) problem for the LT-OM scheme. Heuristic approaches are developed to address the MFP problem in elastic optical networks. Numerical results show that the LIFPMS provides an accurate metric for calculating the failure probability of multicast LTs and enhances the reliability of the LT-OM scheme while accommodating multicast services.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

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We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Introduction to probability and statistics for ecosystem managers simulation and resampling

CERN Document Server

Haas, Timothy C

2013-01-01

Explores computer-intensive probability and statistics for ecosystem management decision making Simulation is an accessible way to explain probability and stochastic model behavior to beginners. This book introduces probability and statistics to future and practicing ecosystem managers by providing a comprehensive treatment of these two areas. The author presents a self-contained introduction for individuals involved in monitoring, assessing, and managing ecosystems and features intuitive, simulation-based explanations of probabilistic and statistical concepts. Mathematical programming details are provided for estimating ecosystem model parameters with Minimum Distance, a robust and computer-intensive method. The majority of examples illustrate how probability and statistics can be applied to ecosystem management challenges. There are over 50 exercises - making this book suitable for a lecture course in a natural resource and/or wildlife management department, or as the main text in a program of self-stud...

Survival of Saplings in Recovery of Riparian Vegetation of Pandeiros River (MG

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Nathalle Cristine Alencar Fagundes

2018-02-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study monitored the survival of saplings planted according to different recovery models in a riparian forest of the Pandeiros river (Januária, MG. The models consisted of planting the saplings in lines of 2 or 4 m with presence (T2S and T4S, respectively or absence of direct seeding (T2 and T4, respectively. We planted 16,259 saplings of 17 botanical families, 32 genera and 33 species. The saplings, in general, presented a survival rate after one year of 34.4% (±1.8. The species with highest survival rates were Jacaranda brasiliana, with 85.0% (±13.5 of survival, Anadenanthera colubrina, with 70.1% (±7.0, and Triplaris gardneriana, with 69.3% (±9.1. Survival did not vary between the models tested, probably due to the short evaluation period (12 months.

Prostate Cancer Probability Prediction By Machine Learning Technique.

Science.gov (United States)

Jović, Srđan; Miljković, Milica; Ivanović, Miljan; Šaranović, Milena; Arsić, Milena

2017-11-26

The main goal of the study was to explore possibility of prostate cancer prediction by machine learning techniques. In order to improve the survival probability of the prostate cancer patients it is essential to make suitable prediction models of the prostate cancer. If one make relevant prediction of the prostate cancer it is easy to create suitable treatment based on the prediction results. Machine learning techniques are the most common techniques for the creation of the predictive models. Therefore in this study several machine techniques were applied and compared. The obtained results were analyzed and discussed. It was concluded that the machine learning techniques could be used for the relevant prediction of prostate cancer.

Search times and probability of detection in time-limited search

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, David; Devitt, Nicole; Maurer, Tana

2005-05-01

When modeling the search and target acquisition process, probability of detection as a function of time is important to war games and physical entity simulations. Recent US Army RDECOM CERDEC Night Vision and Electronics Sensor Directorate modeling of search and detection has focused on time-limited search. Developing the relationship between detection probability and time of search as a differential equation is explored. One of the parameters in the current formula for probability of detection in time-limited search corresponds to the mean time to detect in time-unlimited search. However, the mean time to detect in time-limited search is shorter than the mean time to detect in time-unlimited search and the relationship between them is a mathematical relationship between these two mean times. This simple relationship is derived.

Efficient simulation of tail probabilities of sums of correlated lognormals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asmussen, Søren; Blanchet, José; Juneja, Sandeep

We consider the problem of efficient estimation of tail probabilities of sums of correlated lognormals via simulation. This problem is motivated by the tail analysis of portfolios of assets driven by correlated Black-Scholes models. We propose two estimators that can be rigorously shown to be eff......We consider the problem of efficient estimation of tail probabilities of sums of correlated lognormals via simulation. This problem is motivated by the tail analysis of portfolios of assets driven by correlated Black-Scholes models. We propose two estimators that can be rigorously shown...... optimize the scaling parameter of the covariance. The second estimator decomposes the probability of interest in two contributions and takes advantage of the fact that large deviations for a sum of correlated lognormals are (asymptotically) caused by the largest increment. Importance sampling...

Quantum fluctuation of the order parameter in polyacetylene

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Su Zhao-bin; Wang Ya-xin; Yu Lu.

1984-07-01

The effects of the lattice quantum fluctuation upon the order parameter in the Peierls systems are studied by using the Green's function technique. The order parameter is reduced but survives the quantum fluctuations in agreement with the Monte Carlo simulations. (author)

Overall survival and disease-free survival in endometrial cancer: prognostic factors in 276 patients

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Tejerizo-García A

2013-09-01

% CI 1.73–13.27, P = 0.003 and G3 (HR 7.56, 95% CI 2.75–20.73, P < 0.001. The same variables were also associated with a significantly higher risk of tumor-related mortality.Conclusion: FIGO stage and tumor grade were independent prognostic factors of disease-free survival and overall survival in endometrial cancer patients. Outcome was also influenced by histopathologic type, myometrial and lymphovascular space invasion, lymph-node involvement, age, and tumor remnants after surgery, although a larger study sample is probably needed to demonstrate the independent association of these variables with survival.Keywords: FIGO stage, tumor grade, lymph-node involvement, tumor remnant, recurrence, myometrial invasion

INVESTIGATION OF INFLUENCE OF ENCODING FUNCTION COMPLEXITY ON DISTRIBUTION OF ERROR MASKING PROBABILITY

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A. B. Levina

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Error detection codes are mechanisms that enable robust delivery of data in unreliable communication channels and devices. Unreliable channels and devices are error-prone objects. Respectively, error detection codes allow detecting such errors. There are two classes of error detecting codes - classical codes and security-oriented codes. The classical codes have high percentage of detected errors; however, they have a high probability to miss an error in algebraic manipulation. In order, security-oriented codes are codes with a small Hamming distance and high protection to algebraic manipulation. The probability of error masking is a fundamental parameter of security-oriented codes. A detailed study of this parameter allows analyzing the behavior of the error-correcting code in the case of error injection in the encoding device. In order, the complexity of the encoding function plays an important role in the security-oriented codes. Encoding functions with less computational complexity and a low probability of masking are the best protection of encoding device against malicious acts. This paper investigates the influence of encoding function complexity on the error masking probability distribution. It will be shownthat the more complex encoding function reduces the maximum of error masking probability. It is also shown in the paper that increasing of the function complexity changes the error masking probability distribution. In particular, increasing of computational complexity decreases the difference between the maximum and average value of the error masking probability. Our resultshave shown that functions with greater complexity have smoothed maximums of error masking probability, which significantly complicates the analysis of error-correcting code by attacker. As a result, in case of complex encoding function the probability of the algebraic manipulation is reduced. The paper discusses an approach how to measure the error masking

Hawkes-diffusion process and the conditional probability of defaults in the Eurozone

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

2016-05-01

This study examines market information embedded in the European sovereign CDS (credit default swap) market by analyzing the sovereign CDSs of 13 Eurozone countries from January 1, 2008, to February 29, 2012, which includes the recent Eurozone debt crisis period. We design the conditional probability of defaults for the CDS prices based on the Hawkes-diffusion process and obtain the theoretical prices of CDS indexes. To estimate the model parameters, we calibrate the model prices to empirical prices obtained from individual sovereign CDS term structure data. The estimated parameters clearly explain both cross-sectional and time-series data. Our empirical results show that the probability of a huge loss event sharply increased during the Eurozone debt crisis, indicating a contagion effect. Even countries with strong and stable economies, such as Germany and France, suffered from the contagion effect. We also find that the probability of small events is sensitive to the state of the economy, spiking several times due to the global financial crisis and the Greek government debt crisis.

Generic Degraded Congiguration Probability Analysis for DOE Codisposal Waste Package

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

S.F.A. Deng; M. Saglam; L.J. Gratton

2001-05-23

In accordance with the technical work plan, ''Technical Work Plan For: Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel Work Packages'' (CRWMS M&O 2000c), this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is developed for the purpose of screening out degraded configurations for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) types. It performs the degraded configuration parameter and probability evaluations of the overall methodology specified in the ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2000, Section 3) to qualifying configurations. Degradation analyses are performed to assess realizable parameter ranges and physical regimes for configurations. Probability calculations are then performed for configurations characterized by k{sub eff} in excess of the Critical Limit (CL). The scope of this document is to develop a generic set of screening criteria or models to screen out degraded configurations having potential for exceeding a criticality limit. The developed screening criteria include arguments based on physical/chemical processes and probability calculations and apply to DOE SNF types when codisposed with the high-level waste (HLW) glass inside a waste package. The degradation takes place inside the waste package and is long after repository licensing has expired. The emphasis of this AMR is on degraded configuration screening and the probability analysis is one of the approaches used for screening. The intended use of the model is to apply the developed screening criteria to each DOE SNF type following the completion of the degraded mode criticality analysis internal to the waste package.

Cosmological parameter estimation using particle swarm optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Prasad, Jayanti; Souradeep, Tarun

2012-06-01

Constraining theoretical models, which are represented by a set of parameters, using observational data is an important exercise in cosmology. In Bayesian framework this is done by finding the probability distribution of parameters which best fits to the observational data using sampling based methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It has been argued that MCMC may not be the best option in certain problems in which the target function (likelihood) poses local maxima or have very high dimensionality. Apart from this, there may be examples in which we are mainly interested to find the point in the parameter space at which the probability distribution has the largest value. In this situation the problem of parameter estimation becomes an optimization problem. In the present work we show that particle swarm optimization (PSO), which is an artificial intelligence inspired population based search procedure, can also be used for cosmological parameter estimation. Using PSO we were able to recover the best-fit Λ cold dark matter (LCDM) model parameters from the WMAP seven year data without using any prior guess value or any other property of the probability distribution of parameters like standard deviation, as is common in MCMC. We also report the results of an exercise in which we consider a binned primordial power spectrum (to increase the dimensionality of problem) and find that a power spectrum with features gives lower chi square than the standard power law. Since PSO does not sample the likelihood surface in a fair way, we follow a fitting procedure to find the spread of likelihood function around the best-fit point.

Survival of mutations arising during invasions.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Judith R

2010-03-01

When a neutral mutation arises in an invading population, it quickly either dies out or 'surfs', i.e. it comes to occupy almost all the habitat available at its time of origin. Beneficial mutations can also surf, as can deleterious mutations over finite time spans. We develop descriptive statistical models that quantify the relationship between the probability that a mutation will surf and demographic parameters for a cellular automaton model of surfing. We also provide a simple analytic model that performs well at predicting the probability of surfing for neutral and beneficial mutations in one dimension. The results suggest that factors - possibly including even abiotic factors - that promote invasion success may also increase the probability of surfing and associated adaptive genetic change, conditioned on such success.

Military service, deployments, and exposures in relation to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John D Beard

Full Text Available Military veterans may have higher rates of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS mortality than non-veterans. Few studies, with sparse exposure information and mixed results, have studied relationships between military-related factors and ALS survival. We evaluated associations between military-related factors and ALS survival among U.S. military veteran cases.We followed 616 medical record-confirmed cases from enrollment (2005-2010 in the Genes and Environmental Exposures in Veterans with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis study until death or July 25, 2013, whichever came first. We ascertained vital status information from several sources within the Department of Veterans Affairs. We obtained information regarding military service, deployments, and 39 related exposures via standardized telephone interviews. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs and 95% confidence intervals. We adjusted for potential confounding and missing covariate data biases via inverse probability weights. We also used inverse probability weights to adjust for potential selection bias among a case group that included a disproportionate number of long-term survivors at enrollment.We observed 446 deaths during 24,267 person-months of follow-up (median follow-up: 28 months. Survival was shorter for cases who served before 1950, were deployed to World War II, or mixed and applied burning agents, with HRs between 1.58 and 2.57. Longer survival was associated with exposure to: paint, solvents, or petrochemical substances; local food not provided by the Armed Forces; or burning agents or Agent Orange in the field with HRs between 0.56 and 0.73.Although most military-related factors were not associated with survival, associations we observed with shorter survival are potentially important because of the large number of military veterans.

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Goldberg, Samuel

1960-01-01

Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı (Turkey)

2016-04-18

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

ASSOSIATION BETWEEN PARAMETERS OF MINERAL BONE METABOLISM AND SURVIVAL IN PATIENTS UNDERGOING CHRONIC HEMODIALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Branislav Apostolović

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Beside the traditional risk factors which have an effect on cardiovascular diseases, hemodialysis patients are exposed to metabolic factors, such as malnutrition, microinflammation and oxidative stress, along with mineral bone disorder. The aim of this study was to determine a three-year survival in patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis and to analyse correlation with parameters of mineral bone metabolism. During the three-year follow-up 186 patients were included, of which 115 men (61.83% and 71 women, with a mean age 61.47±12.42. The exact date and the direct cause of death were recorded and mineral bone metabolism parameters were analysed. Out of 67 dead patients, 33 (49.25% died from cardiovascular cause. Out of the total number of deaths in our study, only 11.9% of patients had a target PTH values. Patients with PTH>600 pg/ml are exposed to an increased risk from the overall mortality (RR=0.48, 95% CI (0.24-0.95, p=0.04, but also from cardiovascular mortality (RR=0.34, 95% CI (0.12-0.93, p=0.034 compared to patients with normal serum PTH. These patients have a statistically significant higher serum phosphorus in comparison with patients with normal PTH levels (1.72±0.42 vs. 1.39±0.36, p=0.032. Phosphorus above 2.10 mmol/L increases the relative risk for the overall mortality rate by 60% (RR=0.59, 95% CI (0.35-0.89, p=0.049. In our study, 2-fold higher risk of all-cause mortality (RR=2.00, 95% CI (0.92-4.36, p=0.048, and even 3-fold higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (RR=3.03, 95% CI (0.71-1.29, p=0.039 were found in patients with CaxP levels above 4.50 mmol2/L2. Three-year mortality rate of patients undergoing hemodialysis was 36.02%, while half of the patients died from cardiovascular disease. Patients with hyperparathyroidism and elevated calcium phosphorus product are at the highest risk, both for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Patients with hyperphosphatemia are at higher risk for all-cause mortality.

Predictive model for survival in patients with gastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Goshayeshi, Ladan; Hoseini, Benyamin; Yousefli, Zahra; Khooie, Alireza; Etminani, Kobra; Esmaeilzadeh, Abbas; Golabpour, Amin

2017-12-01

Gastric cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers in the world. Characterized by poor prognosis, it is a frequent cause of cancer in Iran. The aim of the study was to design a predictive model of survival time for patients suffering from gastric cancer. This was a historical cohort conducted between 2011 and 2016. Study population were 277 patients suffering from gastric cancer. Data were gathered from the Iranian Cancer Registry and the laboratory of Emam Reza Hospital in Mashhad, Iran. Patients or their relatives underwent interviews where it was needed. Missing values were imputed by data mining techniques. Fifteen factors were analyzed. Survival was addressed as a dependent variable. Then, the predictive model was designed by combining both genetic algorithm and logistic regression. Matlab 2014 software was used to combine them. Of the 277 patients, only survival of 80 patients was available whose data were used for designing the predictive model. Mean ?SD of missing values for each patient was 4.43?.41 combined predictive model achieved 72.57% accuracy. Sex, birth year, age at diagnosis time, age at diagnosis time of patients' family, family history of gastric cancer, and family history of other gastrointestinal cancers were six parameters associated with patient survival. The study revealed that imputing missing values by data mining techniques have a good accuracy. And it also revealed six parameters extracted by genetic algorithm effect on the survival of patients with gastric cancer. Our combined predictive model, with a good accuracy, is appropriate to forecast the survival of patients suffering from Gastric cancer. So, we suggest policy makers and specialists to apply it for prediction of patients' survival.

Probability 1/e

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

Relationship between the generalized equivalent uniform dose formulation and the Poisson statistics-based tumor control probability model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Sumin; Das, Shiva; Wang Zhiheng; Marks, Lawrence B.

2004-01-01

The generalized equivalent uniform dose (GEUD) model uses a power-law formalism, where the outcome is related to the dose via a power law. We herein investigate the mathematical compatibility between this GEUD model and the Poisson statistics based tumor control probability (TCP) model. The GEUD and TCP formulations are combined and subjected to a compatibility constraint equation. This compatibility constraint equates tumor control probability from the original heterogeneous target dose distribution to that from the homogeneous dose from the GEUD formalism. It is shown that this constraint equation possesses a unique, analytical closed-form solution which relates radiation dose to the tumor cell survival fraction. It is further demonstrated that, when there is no positive threshold or finite critical dose in the tumor response to radiation, this relationship is not bounded within the realistic cell survival limits of 0%-100%. Thus, the GEUD and TCP formalisms are, in general, mathematically inconsistent. However, when a threshold dose or finite critical dose exists in the tumor response to radiation, there is a unique mathematical solution for the tumor cell survival fraction that allows the GEUD and TCP formalisms to coexist, provided that all portions of the tumor are confined within certain specific dose ranges

Interactive effects between nest microclimate and nest vegetation structure confirm microclimate thresholds for Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival

Science.gov (United States)

Grisham, Blake A.; Godar, Alixandra J.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.

2016-01-01

The range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) spans 4 unique ecoregions along 2 distinct environmental gradients. The Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion of the Southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas is environmentally isolated, warmer, and more arid than the Short-Grass, Sand Sagebrush, and Mixed-Grass Prairie ecoregions in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the northeast panhandle of Texas. Weather is known to influence Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion; regional variation may also influence nest microclimate and, ultimately, survival during incubation. To address this question, we placed data loggers adjacent to nests during incubation to quantify temperature and humidity distribution functions in 3 ecoregions. We developed a suite of a priori nest survival models that incorporated derived microclimate parameters and visual obstruction as covariates in Program MARK. We monitored 49 nests in Mixed-Grass, 22 nests in Sand Shinnery Oak, and 30 nests in Short-Grass ecoregions from 2010 to 2014. Our findings indicated that (1) the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion was hotter and drier during incubation than the Mixed- and Short-Grass ecoregions; (2) nest microclimate varied among years within ecoregions; (3) visual obstruction was positively associated with nest survival; but (4) daily nest survival probability decreased by 10% every half-hour when temperature was greater than 34°C and vapor pressure deficit was less than −23 mmHg during the day (about 0600–2100 hours). Our major finding confirmed microclimate thresholds for nest survival under natural conditions across the species' distribution, although Lesser Prairie-Chickens are more likely to experience microclimate conditions that result in nest failures in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion. The species would benefit from identification of thermal landscapes and management actions that promote cooler, more humid nest microclimates.

Probability of seeing increases saccadic readiness.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thérèse Collins

Full Text Available Associating movement directions or endpoints with monetary rewards or costs influences movement parameters in humans, and associating movement directions or endpoints with food reward influences movement parameters in non-human primates. Rewarded movements are facilitated relative to non-rewarded movements. The present study examined to what extent successful foveation facilitated saccadic eye movement behavior, with the hypothesis that foveation may constitute an informational reward. Human adults performed saccades to peripheral targets that either remained visible after saccade completion or were extinguished, preventing visual feedback. Saccades to targets that were systematically extinguished were slower and easier to inhibit than saccades to targets that afforded successful foveation, and this effect was modulated by the probability of successful foveation. These results suggest that successful foveation facilitates behavior, and that obtaining the expected sensory consequences of a saccadic eye movement may serve as a reward for the oculomotor system.

The p-sphere and the geometric substratum of power-law probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vignat, C.; Plastino, A.

2005-01-01

Links between power law probability distributions and marginal distributions of uniform laws on p-spheres in R n show that a mathematical derivation of the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution necessarily passes through power law ones. Results are also given that link parameters p and n to the value of the non-extensivity parameter q that characterizes these power laws in the context of non-extensive statistics

Implementation of the probability table method in a continuous-energy Monte Carlo code system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sutton, T.M.; Brown, F.B.

1998-10-01

RACER is a particle-transport Monte Carlo code that utilizes a continuous-energy treatment for neutrons and neutron cross section data. Until recently, neutron cross sections in the unresolved resonance range (URR) have been treated in RACER using smooth, dilute-average representations. This paper describes how RACER has been modified to use probability tables to treat cross sections in the URR, and the computer codes that have been developed to compute the tables from the unresolved resonance parameters contained in ENDF/B data files. A companion paper presents results of Monte Carlo calculations that demonstrate the effect of the use of probability tables versus the use of dilute-average cross sections for the URR. The next section provides a brief review of the probability table method as implemented in the RACER system. The production of the probability tables for use by RACER takes place in two steps. The first step is the generation of probability tables from the nuclear parameters contained in the ENDF/B data files. This step, and the code written to perform it, are described in Section 3. The tables produced are at energy points determined by the ENDF/B parameters and/or accuracy considerations. The tables actually used in the RACER calculations are obtained in the second step from those produced in the first. These tables are generated at energy points specific to the RACER calculation. Section 4 describes this step and the code written to implement it, as well as modifications made to RACER to enable it to use the tables. Finally, some results and conclusions are presented in Section 5

Improved survival in HIV treatment programs in Asia

Science.gov (United States)

De La Mata, Nicole L; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Khol, Vohith; Ng, Oon Tek; Van Nguyen, Kinh; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Pham, Thuy Thanh; Lee, Man Po; Durier, Nicolas; Law, Matthew

2016-01-01

Background Antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV-positive patients has expanded rapidly in Asia over the last ten years. Our study aimed to describe the time trends and risk factors for overall survival in patients receiving first-line ART in Asia. Methods We included HIV-positive adult patients who initiated ART between 2003–2013 (n=16 546), from seven sites across six Asia-Pacific countries. Patient follow-up was to May 2014. We compared survival for each country and overall by time period of ART initiation using Kaplan-Meier curves. Factors associated with mortality were assessed using Cox regression, stratified by site. We also summarized first-line ART regimens, CD4 count at ART initiation, and CD4 and HIV viral load testing frequencies. Results There were 880 deaths observed over 54 532 person-years of follow-up, a crude rate of 1.61 (1.51, 1.72) per 100 person-years. Survival significantly improved in more recent years of ART initiation. The survival probabilities at 4 years follow-up for those initiating ART in 2003–05 was 92.1%, 2006–09 was 94.3% and 2010–2013 was 94.5% (pAsia have improved survival in more recent years of ART initiation. This is likely a consequence of improvements in treatment and, patient management and monitoring over time. PMID:26961354

Information Use Differences in Hot and Cold Risk Processing: When Does Information About Probability Count in the Columbia Card Task?

Science.gov (United States)

Markiewicz, Łukasz; Kubińska, Elżbieta

2015-01-01

This paper aims to provide insight into information processing differences between hot and cold risk taking decision tasks within a single domain. Decision theory defines risky situations using at least three parameters: outcome one (often a gain) with its probability and outcome two (often a loss) with a complementary probability. Although a rational agent should consider all of the parameters, s/he could potentially narrow their focus to only some of them, particularly when explicit Type 2 processes do not have the resources to override implicit Type 1 processes. Here we investigate differences in risky situation parameters' influence on hot and cold decisions. Although previous studies show lower information use in hot than in cold processes, they do not provide decision weight changes and therefore do not explain whether this difference results from worse concentration on each parameter of a risky situation (probability, gain amount, and loss amount) or from ignoring some parameters. Two studies were conducted, with participants performing the Columbia Card Task (CCT) in either its Cold or Hot version. In the first study, participants also performed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to monitor their ability to override Type 1 processing cues (implicit processes) with Type 2 explicit processes. Because hypothesis testing required comparison of the relative importance of risky situation decision weights (gain, loss, probability), we developed a novel way of measuring information use in the CCT by employing a conjoint analysis methodology. Across the two studies, results indicated that in the CCT Cold condition decision makers concentrate on each information type (gain, loss, probability), but in the CCT Hot condition they concentrate mostly on a single parameter: probability of gain/loss. We also show that an individual's CRT score correlates with information use propensity in cold but not hot tasks. Thus, the affective dimension of hot tasks inhibits correct

Electricity price forecasting using Enhanced Probability Neural Network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Whei-Min; Gow, Hong-Jey; Tsai, Ming-Tang

2010-01-01

This paper proposes a price forecasting system for electric market participants to reduce the risk of price volatility. Combining the Probability Neural Network (PNN) and Orthogonal Experimental Design (OED), an Enhanced Probability Neural Network (EPNN) is proposed in the solving process. In this paper, the Locational Marginal Price (LMP), system load and temperature of PJM system were collected and the data clusters were embedded in the Excel Database according to the year, season, workday, and weekend. With the OED to smooth parameters in the EPNN, the forecasting error can be improved during the training process to promote the accuracy and reliability where even the ''spikes'' can be tracked closely. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed EPNN to provide quality information in a price volatile environment. (author)

Positive random variables with a discrete probability mass at the origin: Parameter estimation for left-censored samples with application to air quality monitoring data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gogolak, C.V.

1986-11-01

The concentration of a contaminant measured in a particular medium might be distributed as a positive random variable when it is present, but it may not always be present. If there is a level below which the concentration cannot be distinguished from zero by the analytical apparatus, a sample from such a population will be censored on the left. The presence of both zeros and positive values in the censored portion of such samples complicates the problem of estimating the parameters of the underlying positive random variable and the probability of a zero observation. Using the method of maximum likelihood, it is shown that the solution to this estimation problem reduces largely to that of estimating the parameters of the distribution truncated at the point of censorship. The maximum likelihood estimate of the proportion of zero values follows directly. The derivation of the maximum likelihood estimates for a lognormal population with zeros is given in detail, and the asymptotic properties of the estimates are examined. The estimation method was used to fit several different distributions to a set of severely censored 85 Kr monitoring data from six locations at the Savannah River Plant chemical separations facilities

Steam generator tubes rupture probability estimation - study of the axially cracked tube case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mavko, B.; Cizelj, L.; Roussel, G.

1992-01-01

The objective of the present study is to estimate the probability of a steam generator tube rupture due to the unstable propagation of axial through-wall cracks during a hypothetical accident. For this purpose the probabilistic fracture mechanics model was developed taking into account statistical distributions of influencing parameters. A numerical example considering a typical steam generator seriously affected by axial stress corrosion cracking in the roll transition area, is presented; it indicates the change of rupture probability with different assumptions focusing mostly on tubesheet reinforcing factor, crack propagation rate and crack detection probability. 8 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

Count data, detection probabilities, and the demography, dynamics, distribution, and decline of amphibians.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Benedikt R

2003-08-01

The evidence for amphibian population declines is based on count data that were not adjusted for detection probabilities. Such data are not reliable even when collected using standard methods. The formula C = Np (where C is a count, N the true parameter value, and p is a detection probability) relates count data to demography, population size, or distributions. With unadjusted count data, one assumes a linear relationship between C and N and that p is constant. These assumptions are unlikely to be met in studies of amphibian populations. Amphibian population data should be based on methods that account for detection probabilities.

Effect of gamma-irradiation on mouse pancreatic islet-allograft survival

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanai, T.; Porter, J.; Gotoh, M.; Monaco, A.P.; Maki, T.

1989-01-01

Elimination or inactivation of lymphoid tissue in the pancreatic islet preparation achieves prolongation of islet-allograft survival. In this study we examined the effect of gamma-irradiation on mouse islet-allograft survival. In a B6AF1 isograft model, irradiation up to 2400 rad did not induce deterioration of islet function over 200 days, but greater doses caused cessation of graft function between 83 and 186 days. When DBA/2 crude islets were transplanted into B6AF1 recipients, all nonirradiated allografts were acutely rejected. Marked prolongation of allograft survival was achieved by islet irradiation with doses between 800 and 12,000 rad. With higher doses, significant numbers of allografts survived beyond the controls, but many lost function between 78 and 180 days, with none surviving greater than 200 days. Irradiation with 16,000 rad caused acute radiation damage. Because most secondary islet allografts in recipient mice that lost primary islet-graft function between 84 and 195 days survived greater than 100 days, late functional loss was probably due to the radiation injury. Combined use of recipient treatment with cyclosporin A and graft irradiation (2400 rad) achieved prolongation of DBA/2 islets in B6AF1 mice

Calculating failure probabilities for TRISO-coated fuel particles using an integral formulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, Gregory K.; Maki, John T.; Knudson, Darrell L.; Petti, David A.

2010-01-01

The fundamental design for a gas-cooled reactor relies on the safe behavior of the coated particle fuel. The coating layers surrounding the fuel kernels in these spherical particles, termed the TRISO coating, act as a pressure vessel that retains fission products. The quality of the fuel is reflected in the number of particle failures that occur during reactor operation, where failed particles become a source for fission products that can then diffuse through the fuel element. The failure probability for any batch of particles, which has traditionally been calculated using the Monte Carlo method, depends on statistical variations in design parameters and on variations in the strengths of coating layers among particles in the batch. An alternative approach to calculating failure probabilities is developed herein that uses direct numerical integration of a failure probability integral. Because this is a multiple integral where the statistically varying parameters become integration variables, a fast numerical integration approach is also developed. In sample cases analyzed involving multiple failure mechanisms, results from the integration methods agree closely with Monte Carlo results. Additionally, the fast integration approach, particularly, is shown to significantly improve efficiency of failure probability calculations. These integration methods have been implemented in the PARFUME fuel performance code along with the Monte Carlo method, where each serves to verify accuracy of the others.

[Estimations of maternal mortality using the sisterhood survival method: Latin American experience].

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, L R; Simons, H; Graham, W; Schkolnik, S

1990-08-01

The method of surviving sisters for indirectly estimating maternal mortality is still under development but shows promise for countries lacking alternative sources of data and good statistics. This work uses census or survey data to apply the method to rural villages in Gambia; Mapuche settlements in Cautin, Chile; marginal populations on the outskirts of Lima, Peru; and rural villages of Avaroa, Bolivia. The method is explained in detail following presentation of the results. The necessary basic information is outlined, and the particularities of its application to each Latin American case are discussed. The surviving sisters method was developed by Graham and Brass to derive indicators of maternal mortality based on the proportion of sisters who arrive at fertile age and die during pregnancy, delivery, or the postpartum period. The method transforms the proportions of sisters who died of maternal causes obtained from a census or survey into conventional probabilities of death. The basic information required concerns the numbers of sisters entering the reproductive period (excluding the respondent is she is a woman), the number surviving and decreased at the survey data, and the number who died during pregnancy, delivery, or the postpartum period. The probabilities of dying from a maternal cause were estimated on the basis of the sister survival method at 1/98 in Lima, 1/53 in Cautin, 1/17 in Gambia, and 1/10 in Bolivia. These probabilities correspond to ratios of maternal mortality per 100,000 live births of 286 in Lima, 414 in Cautin, 1005 in Gambia, and 1379 in Bolivia. The results demonstrate great variability in maternal mortality rates. In the cases of Lima and Cautin there were significant differences between estimates derived from the sister survival method and those derived from vital statistics. The 4 cases demonstrated the familiar association between maternal and infant mortality, fertility, and overall female mortality expressed in life expectancy at

Information use differences in hot and cold risk processing: When does information about probability count in the Columbia Card Task?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lukasz eMarkiewicz

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Objective: This paper aims to provide insight into information processing differences between hot and cold risk taking decision tasks within a single domain. Decision theory defines risky situations using at least three parameters: outcome one (often a gain with its probability and outcome two (often a loss with a complementary probability. Although a rational agent should consider all of the parameters, decision maker could potentially narrow focus to only some of them, particularly when explicit Type 2 processes do not have the resources to override implicit Type 1 processes. Here we investigate differences in risky situation parameter(s influence on hot and cold decisions. Although previous studies show lower information use in hot as compared to cold processes, they do not provide decision weight changes and therefore do not explain whether this difference results from worse concentration on each parameter of a risky situation (probability, gain amount and loss amount or from ignoring some parameters. Methods: Two studies were conducted, with participants performing the Columbia Card Task (CCT in either its Cold or Hot version. In the first study, participants also performed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT to monitor their ability to override Type 1 processing cues (implicit processes with Type 2 explicit processes. Because hypothesis testing required comparison of the relative importance of risky situation decision weights (gain, loss, probability, we developed a novel way of measuring information use in the CCT by employing a conjoint analysis methodology. Results: Across the two studies, results indicated that in the CCT Cold condition decision makers concentrate on each information type (gain, loss, probability, but in the CCT Hot condition they concentrate mostly on a single parameter: probability of gain/loss. We also show that an individual’s CRT score correlates with information use propensity in cold but not hot tasks. Thus

Foundations of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraassen, B.C. van

1979-01-01

The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

Estimation of functional failure probability of passive systems based on subset simulation method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Dongqing; Wang Baosheng; Zhang Jianmin; Jiang Jing

2012-01-01

In order to solve the problem of multi-dimensional epistemic uncertainties and small functional failure probability of passive systems, an innovative reliability analysis algorithm called subset simulation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo was presented. The method is found on the idea that a small failure probability can be expressed as a product of larger conditional failure probabilities by introducing a proper choice of intermediate failure events. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to efficiently generate conditional samples for estimating the conditional failure probabilities. Taking the AP1000 passive residual heat removal system, for example, the uncertainties related to the model of a passive system and the numerical values of its input parameters were considered in this paper. And then the probability of functional failure was estimated with subset simulation method. The numerical results demonstrate that subset simulation method has the high computing efficiency and excellent computing accuracy compared with traditional probability analysis methods. (authors)

Chronic consequences of acute injuries: worse survival after discharge.

Science.gov (United States)

Shafi, Shahid; Renfro, Lindsay A; Barnes, Sunni; Rayan, Nadine; Gentilello, Larry M; Fleming, Neil; Ballard, David

2012-09-01

The Trauma Quality Improvement Program uses inhospital mortality to measure quality of care, which assumes patients who survive injury are not likely to suffer higher mortality after discharge. We hypothesized that survival rates in trauma patients who survive to discharge remain stable afterward. Patients treated at an urban Level I trauma center (2006-2008) were linked with the Social Security Administration Death Master File. Survival rates were measured at 30, 90, and 180 days and 1 and 2 years from injury among two groups of trauma patients who survived to discharge: major trauma (Abbreviated Injury Scale score ≥ 3 injuries, n = 2,238) and minor trauma (Abbreviated Injury Scale score ≤ 2 injuries, n = 1,171). Control groups matched to each trauma group by age and sex were simulated from the US general population using annual survival probabilities from census data. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank analyses conditional upon survival to each time point were used to determine changes in risk of mortality after discharge. Cox proportional hazards models with left truncation at the time of discharge were used to determine independent predictors of mortality after discharge. The survival rate in trauma patients with major injuries was 92% at 30 days posttrauma and declined to 84% by 3 years (p > 0.05 compared with general population). Minor trauma patients experienced a survival rate similar to the general population. Age and injury severity were the only independent predictors of long-term mortality given survival to discharge. Log-rank tests conditional on survival to each time point showed that mortality risk in patients with major injuries remained significantly higher than the general population for up to 6 months after injury. The survival rate of trauma patients with major injuries remains significantly lower than survival for minor trauma patients and the general population for several months postdischarge. Surveillance for early identification and treatment of

Non-Archimedean Probability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

Knotting probability of self-avoiding polygons under a topological constraint

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Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

2017-09-01

We define the knotting probability of a knot K by the probability for a random polygon or self-avoiding polygon (SAP) of N segments having the knot type K. We show fundamental and generic properties of the knotting probability particularly its dependence on the excluded volume. We investigate them for the SAP consisting of hard cylindrical segments of unit length and radius rex. For various prime and composite knots, we numerically show that a compact formula describes the knotting probabilities for the cylindrical SAP as a function of segment number N and radius rex. It connects the small-N to the large-N behavior and even to lattice knots in the case of large values of radius. As the excluded volume increases, the maximum of the knotting probability decreases for prime knots except for the trefoil knot. If it is large, the trefoil knot and its descendants are dominant among the nontrivial knots in the SAP. From the factorization property of the knotting probability, we derive a sum rule among the estimates of a fitting parameter for all prime knots, which suggests the local knot picture and the dominance of the trefoil knot in the case of large excluded volumes. Here we remark that the cylindrical SAP gives a model of circular DNA which is negatively charged and semiflexible, where radius rex corresponds to the screening length.

Knotting probability of self-avoiding polygons under a topological constraint.

Science.gov (United States)

Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

2017-09-07

We define the knotting probability of a knot K by the probability for a random polygon or self-avoiding polygon (SAP) of N segments having the knot type K. We show fundamental and generic properties of the knotting probability particularly its dependence on the excluded volume. We investigate them for the SAP consisting of hard cylindrical segments of unit length and radius r ex . For various prime and composite knots, we numerically show that a compact formula describes the knotting probabilities for the cylindrical SAP as a function of segment number N and radius r ex . It connects the small-N to the large-N behavior and even to lattice knots in the case of large values of radius. As the excluded volume increases, the maximum of the knotting probability decreases for prime knots except for the trefoil knot. If it is large, the trefoil knot and its descendants are dominant among the nontrivial knots in the SAP. From the factorization property of the knotting probability, we derive a sum rule among the estimates of a fitting parameter for all prime knots, which suggests the local knot picture and the dominance of the trefoil knot in the case of large excluded volumes. Here we remark that the cylindrical SAP gives a model of circular DNA which is negatively charged and semiflexible, where radius r ex corresponds to the screening length.

Handbook of probability

CERN Document Server

Florescu, Ionut

2013-01-01

THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

Probability-1

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, Albert N

2016-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

Probability analysis of dynamical effects of axial piston hydraulic motor

OpenAIRE

Sapietova Alzbeta; Dekys Vladimír; Sapieta Milan; Sulka Peter; Gajdos Lukas; Rojek Izabela

2018-01-01

The paper presents an analysis of impact force on stopper screw in axial piston hydraulic motor. The solution contains probabilistic description of input variables. If the output parameters of probabilistic solution are compared with arbitrary values and values acquired by analytical solution, the probability of proper operation of the device can be evaluated.

Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

2011-01-01

Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

Effects of Delayed Metamorphosis on Larval Survival, Metamorphosis, and Juvenile Performance of Four Closely Related Species of Tropical Sea Urchins (Genus Echinometra

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Aminur Rahman

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We report here, the effects of extended competency on larval survival, metamorphosis, and postlarval juvenile growth of four closely related species of tropical sea urchins, Echinometra sp. A (Ea, E. mathaei (Em, Echinometra sp. C (Ec, and E. oblonga (Eo. Planktotrophic larvae of all four species fed on cultured phytoplankton (Chaetoceros gracilis attained metamorphic competence within 22–24 days after fertilization. Competent larvae were forced to delay metamorphosis for up to 5 months by preventing them from settling in culture bottles with continuous stirring on a set of 10 rpm rotating rollers and larval survival per monthly intervals was recorded. Larval survival was highest at 24 days, when competence was attained (0 delayed period, and there were no significant differences among the four species. Larvae that had experienced a prolonged delay had reduced survival rate, metamorphosis success, and juvenile survival, but among older larvae, Em had the highest success followed by Ea, Eo, and Ec. Juveniles from larvae of all four species that metamorphosed soon after becoming competent tended to have higher growth rates (test diameter and length of spines than juveniles from larvae that metamorphosed after a prolonged period of competence with progressively slower growth the longer the prolonged period. Despite the adverse effects of delaying metamorphosis on growth parameters, competent larvae of all four species were able to survive up to 5 months and after metamorphosis grew into 1-month-old juveniles in lab condition. Overall, delayed larvae of Em showed significantly higher larval survival, metamorphosis, and juvenile survival than Ea and Eo, while Ec showed the lowest values in these performances. Em has the most widespread distribution of these species ranging from Africa to Hawaii, while Ec probably has the most restricted distribution. Consequently, differences in distribution may be related to differences in the ability to delay

Effects of delayed metamorphosis on larval survival, metamorphosis, and juvenile performance of four closely related species of tropical sea urchins (genus Echinometra).

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, M Aminur; Yusoff, Fatimah Md; Arshad, A; Uehara, Tsuyoshi

2014-01-01

We report here, the effects of extended competency on larval survival, metamorphosis, and postlarval juvenile growth of four closely related species of tropical sea urchins, Echinometra sp. A (Ea), E. mathaei (Em), Echinometra sp. C (Ec), and E. oblonga (Eo). Planktotrophic larvae of all four species fed on cultured phytoplankton (Chaetoceros gracilis) attained metamorphic competence within 22-24 days after fertilization. Competent larvae were forced to delay metamorphosis for up to 5 months by preventing them from settling in culture bottles with continuous stirring on a set of 10 rpm rotating rollers and larval survival per monthly intervals was recorded. Larval survival was highest at 24 days, when competence was attained (0 delayed period), and there were no significant differences among the four species. Larvae that had experienced a prolonged delay had reduced survival rate, metamorphosis success, and juvenile survival, but among older larvae, Em had the highest success followed by Ea, Eo, and Ec. Juveniles from larvae of all four species that metamorphosed soon after becoming competent tended to have higher growth rates (test diameter and length of spines) than juveniles from larvae that metamorphosed after a prolonged period of competence with progressively slower growth the longer the prolonged period. Despite the adverse effects of delaying metamorphosis on growth parameters, competent larvae of all four species were able to survive up to 5 months and after metamorphosis grew into 1-month-old juveniles in lab condition. Overall, delayed larvae of Em showed significantly higher larval survival, metamorphosis, and juvenile survival than Ea and Eo, while Ec showed the lowest values in these performances. Em has the most widespread distribution of these species ranging from Africa to Hawaii, while Ec probably has the most restricted distribution. Consequently, differences in distribution may be related to differences in the ability to delay metamorphosis.

Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwasniok, Frank

2013-11-01

A time series analysis method for predicting the probability density of a dynamical system is proposed. A nonstationary parametric model of the probability density is estimated from data within a maximum likelihood framework and then extrapolated to forecast the future probability density and explore the system for critical transitions or tipping points. A full systematic account of parameter uncertainty is taken. The technique is generic, independent of the underlying dynamics of the system. The method is verified on simulated data and then applied to prediction of Arctic sea-ice extent.

Re-analysis of survival data of cancer patients utilizing additive homeopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gleiss, Andreas; Frass, Michael; Gaertner, Katharina

2016-08-01

In this short communication we present a re-analysis of homeopathic patient data in comparison to control patient data from the same Outpatient´s Unit "Homeopathy in malignant diseases" of the Medical University of Vienna. In this analysis we took account of a probable immortal time bias. For patients suffering from advanced stages of cancer and surviving the first 6 or 12 months after diagnosis, respectively, the results show that utilizing homeopathy gives a statistically significant (p<0.001) advantage over control patients regarding survival time. In conclusion, bearing in mind all limitations, the results of this retrospective study suggest that patients with advanced stages of cancer might benefit from additional homeopathic treatment until a survival time of up to 12 months after diagnosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lung cancer survival in Norway, 1997-2011: from nihilism to optimism.

Science.gov (United States)

Nilssen, Yngvar; Strand, Trond Eirik; Fjellbirkeland, Lars; Bartnes, Kristian; Møller, Bjørn

2016-01-01

We examine changes in survival and patient-, tumour- and treatment-related factors among resected and nonresected lung cancer patients, and identify subgroups with the largest and smallest survival improvements.National population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway, Statistics Norway and the Norwegian Patient Register were linked for lung cancer patients diagnosed during 1997-2011. The 1- and 5-year relative survival were estimated, and Cox proportional hazard regression, adjusted for selected patient characteristics, was used to assess prognostic factors for survival in lung cancer patients overall and stratified by resection status.We identified 34 157 patients with lung cancer. The proportion of histological diagnoses accompanied by molecular genetics testing increased from 0% to 26%, while those accompanied by immunohistochemistry increased from 8% to 26%. The 1-year relative survival among nonresected and resected patients increased from 21.7% to 34.2% and 75.4% to 91.5%, respectively. The improved survival remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, stage and histology. The largest improvements in survival occurred among resected and adenocarcinoma patients, while patients ≥80 years experienced the smallest increase.Lung cancer survival has increased considerably in Norway. The explanation is probably multifactorial, including improved attitude towards diagnostic work-up and treatment, and more accurate diagnostic testing that allows for improved selection for resection and improved treatment options. Copyright ©ERS 2016.