Patient-centric blood pressure-targeted cardiopulmonary resuscitation improves survival from cardiac arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutton, Robert M; Friess, Stuart H; Naim, Maryam Y; Lampe, Joshua W; Bratinov, George; Weiland, Theodore R; Garuccio, Mia; Nadkarni, Vinay M; Becker, Lance B; Berg, Robert A

2014-12-01

Although current resuscitation guidelines are rescuer focused, the opportunity exists to develop patient-centered resuscitation strategies that optimize the hemodynamic response of the individual in the hopes to improve survival. To determine if titrating cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) to blood pressure would improve 24-hour survival compared with traditional CPR in a porcine model of asphyxia-associated ventricular fibrillation (VF). After 7 minutes of asphyxia, followed by VF, 20 female 3-month-old swine randomly received either blood pressure-targeted care consisting of titration of compression depth to a systolic blood pressure of 100 mm Hg and vasopressors to a coronary perfusion pressure greater than 20 mm Hg (BP care); or optimal American Heart Association Guideline care consisting of depth of 51 mm with standard advanced cardiac life support epinephrine dosing (Guideline care). All animals received manual CPR for 10 minutes before first shock. Primary outcome was 24-hour survival. The 24-hour survival was higher in the BP care group (8 of 10) compared with Guideline care (0 of 10); P = 0.001. Coronary perfusion pressure was higher in the BP care group (point estimate +8.5 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 3.9-13.0 mm Hg; P < 0.01); however, depth was higher in Guideline care (point estimate +9.3 mm; 95% confidence interval, 6.0-12.5 mm; P < 0.01). Number of vasopressor doses before first shock was higher in the BP care group versus Guideline care (median, 3 [range, 0-3] vs. 2 [range, 2-2]; P = 0.003). Blood pressure-targeted CPR improves 24-hour survival compared with optimal American Heart Association care in a porcine model of asphyxia-associated VF cardiac arrest.

Survival estimates - Survival estimates for the passage of juvenile salmonids through Snake and Columbia River dams and reservoirs

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This BPA-funded study provides estimates of smolt survival and travel time through individual reaches and reaches combined in the Snake and Columbia Rivers...

Estimating haplotype effects for survival data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas; Martinussen, Torben; Silver, J

2010-01-01

Genetic association studies often investigate the effect of haplotypes on an outcome of interest. Haplotypes are not observed directly, and this complicates the inclusion of such effects in survival models. We describe a new estimating equations approach for Cox's regression model to assess haplo...

Designing a monitoring program to estimate estuarine survival of anadromous salmon smolts: simulating the effect of sample design on inference

Science.gov (United States)

Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

2015-01-01

A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

Survival in pediatric medulloblastoma: a population-based observational study to improve prognostication.

Science.gov (United States)

Weil, Alexander G; Wang, Anthony C; Westwick, Harrison J; Ibrahim, George M; Ariani, Rojine T; Crevier, Louis; Perreault, Sebastien; Davidson, Tom; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Fallah, Aria

2017-03-01

Medulloblastoma is the most common form of brain malignancy of childhood. The mainstay of epidemiological data regarding childhood medulloblastoma is derived from case series, hence population-based studies are warranted to improve the accuracy of survival estimates. To utilize a big-data approach to update survival estimates in a contemporary cohort of children with medulloblastoma. We performed a population-based retrospective observational cohort study utilizing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database that captures all children, less than 20 years of age, between 1973 and 2012 in 18 geographical regions representing 28% of the US population. We included all participants with a presumed or histologically diagnosis of medulloblastoma. The main outcome of interest is survivors at 1, 5 and 10 years following diagnosis. A cohort of 1735 children with a median (interquartile range) age at diagnosis of 7 (4-11) years, with a diagnosis of medulloblastoma were identified. The incidence and prevalence of pediatric medulloblastoma has remained stable over the past 4 decades. There is a critical time point at 1990 when the overall survival has drastically improved. In the contemporary cohort (1990 onwards), the percentage of participants alive was 86, 70 and 63% at 1, 5 and 10 years, respectively. Multivariate Cox-Regression model demonstrated Radiation (HR 0.37; 95% CI 0.30-0.46, p < 0.001) and Surgery (HR 0.42; 95% CI 0.30-0.58, p < 0.001) independently predict survival. The probability of mortality from a neurological cause is <5% in patients who are alive 8 years following diagnosis. The SEER cohort analysis demonstrates significant improvements in pediatric medulloblastoma survival. In contrast to previous reports, the majority of patients survive in the modern era, and those alive 8 years following initial diagnosis are likely a long-term survivor. The importance of minimizing treatment-related toxicity is increasingly apparent given

Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Troy W Grovenburg

Full Text Available New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i

Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

2010-07-01

We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root- n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.

A NEW METHOD FOR PREDICTING SURVIVAL AND ESTIMATING UNCERTAINTY IN TRAUMA PATIENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. G. Schetinin

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS is the current “gold” standard of screening patient’s condition for purposes of predicting survival probability. More than 40 years of TRISS practice revealed a number of problems, particularly, 1 unexplained fluctuation of predicted values caused by aggregation of screening tests, and 2 low accuracy of uncertainty intervals estimations. We developed a new method made it available for practitioners as a web calculator to reduce negative effect of factors given above. The method involves Bayesian methodology of statistical inference which, being computationally expensive, in theory provides most accurate predictions. We implemented and tested this approach on a data set including 571,148 patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB with 1–20 injuries. These patients were distributed over the following categories: (1 174,647 with 1 injury, (2 381,137 with 2–10 injuries, and (3 15,364 with 11–20 injuries. Survival rates in each category were 0.977, 0.953, and 0.831, respectively. The proposed method has improved prediction accuracy by 0.04%, 0.36%, and 3.64% (p-value <0.05 in the categories 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics showed a significant improvement of the new model calibration. The uncertainty 2σ intervals were reduced from 0.628 to 0.569 for patients of the second category and from 1.227 to 0.930 for patients of the third category, both with p-value <0.005. The new method shows the statistically significant improvement (p-value <0.05 in accuracy of predicting survival and estimating the uncertainty intervals. The largest improvement has been achieved for patients with 11–20 injuries. The method is available for practitioners as a web calculator http://www.traumacalc.org.

Patient-centric Blood Pressure–targeted Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Improves Survival from Cardiac Arrest

Science.gov (United States)

Friess, Stuart H.; Naim, Maryam Y.; Lampe, Joshua W.; Bratinov, George; Weiland, Theodore R.; Garuccio, Mia; Nadkarni, Vinay M.; Becker, Lance B.; Berg, Robert A.

2014-01-01

Rationale: Although current resuscitation guidelines are rescuer focused, the opportunity exists to develop patient-centered resuscitation strategies that optimize the hemodynamic response of the individual in the hopes to improve survival. Objectives: To determine if titrating cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) to blood pressure would improve 24-hour survival compared with traditional CPR in a porcine model of asphyxia-associated ventricular fibrillation (VF). Methods: After 7 minutes of asphyxia, followed by VF, 20 female 3-month-old swine randomly received either blood pressure–targeted care consisting of titration of compression depth to a systolic blood pressure of 100 mm Hg and vasopressors to a coronary perfusion pressure greater than 20 mm Hg (BP care); or optimal American Heart Association Guideline care consisting of depth of 51 mm with standard advanced cardiac life support epinephrine dosing (Guideline care). All animals received manual CPR for 10 minutes before first shock. Primary outcome was 24-hour survival. Measurements and Main Results: The 24-hour survival was higher in the BP care group (8 of 10) compared with Guideline care (0 of 10); P = 0.001. Coronary perfusion pressure was higher in the BP care group (point estimate +8.5 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 3.9–13.0 mm Hg; P < 0.01); however, depth was higher in Guideline care (point estimate +9.3 mm; 95% confidence interval, 6.0–12.5 mm; P < 0.01). Number of vasopressor doses before first shock was higher in the BP care group versus Guideline care (median, 3 [range, 0–3] vs. 2 [range, 2–2]; P = 0.003). Conclusions: Blood pressure–targeted CPR improves 24-hour survival compared with optimal American Heart Association care in a porcine model of asphyxia-associated VF cardiac arrest. PMID:25321490

Instrumental variable estimation in a survival context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Walter, Stefan; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2015-01-01

for regression analysis in a survival context, primarily under an additive hazards model, for which we describe 2 simple methods for estimating causal effects. The first method is a straightforward 2-stage regression approach analogous to 2-stage least squares commonly used for IV analysis in linear regression....... The IV approach is very well developed in the context of linear regression and also for certain generalized linear models with a nonlinear link function. However, IV methods are not as well developed for regression analysis with a censored survival outcome. In this article, we develop the IV approach....... In this approach, the fitted value from a first-stage regression of the exposure on the IV is entered in place of the exposure in the second-stage hazard model to recover a valid estimate of the treatment effect of interest. The second method is a so-called control function approach, which entails adding...

Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

Science.gov (United States)

Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

1998-01-01

The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated

Survival Bayesian Estimation of Exponential-Gamma Under Linex Loss Function

Science.gov (United States)

Rizki, S. W.; Mara, M. N.; Sulistianingsih, E.

2017-06-01

This paper elaborates a research of the cancer patients after receiving a treatment in cencored data using Bayesian estimation under Linex Loss function for Survival Model which is assumed as an exponential distribution. By giving Gamma distribution as prior and likelihood function produces a gamma distribution as posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is used to find estimatior {\\hat{λ }}BL by using Linex approximation. After getting {\\hat{λ }}BL, the estimators of hazard function {\\hat{h}}BL and survival function {\\hat{S}}BL can be found. Finally, we compare the result of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Linex approximation to find the best method for this observation by finding smaller MSE. The result shows that MSE of hazard and survival under MLE are 2.91728E-07 and 0.000309004 and by using Bayesian Linex worths 2.8727E-07 and 0.000304131, respectively. It concludes that the Bayesian Linex is better than MLE.

When celibacy matters: incorporating non-breeders improves demographic parameter estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Pardo, Deborah; Weimerskirch, Henri; Barbraud, Christophe

2013-01-01

In long-lived species only a fraction of a population breeds at a given time. Non-breeders can represent more than half of adult individuals, calling in doubt the relevance of estimating demographic parameters from the sole breeders. Here we demonstrate the importance of considering observable non-breeders to estimate reliable demographic traits: survival, return, breeding, hatching and fledging probabilities. We study the long-lived quasi-biennial breeding wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans). In this species, the breeding cycle lasts almost a year and birds that succeed a given year tend to skip the next breeding occasion while birds that fail tend to breed again the following year. Most non-breeders remain unobservable at sea, but still a substantial number of observable non-breeders (ONB) was identified on breeding sites. Using multi-state capture-mark-recapture analyses, we used several measures to compare the performance of demographic estimates between models incorporating or ignoring ONB: bias (difference in mean), precision (difference is standard deviation) and accuracy (both differences in mean and standard deviation). Our results highlight that ignoring ONB leads to bias and loss of accuracy on breeding probability and survival estimates. These effects are even stronger when studied in an age-dependent framework. Biases on breeding probabilities and survival increased with age leading to overestimation of survival at old age and thus actuarial senescence and underestimation of reproductive senescence. We believe our study sheds new light on the difficulties of estimating demographic parameters in species/taxa where a significant part of the population does not breed every year. Taking into account ONB appeared important to improve demographic parameter estimates, models of population dynamics and evolutionary conclusions regarding senescence within and across taxa.

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

Science.gov (United States)

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Estimating the joint survival probabilities of married individuals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sanders, Lisanne; Melenberg, Bertrand

We estimate the joint survival probability of spouses using a large random sample drawn from a Dutch census. As benchmarks we use two bivariate Weibull models. We consider more flexible models, using a semi-nonparametric approach, by extending the independent Weibull distribution using squared

Evaluating methodological assumptions of a catch-curve survival estimation of unmarked precocial shorebird chickes

Science.gov (United States)

McGowan, Conor P.; Gardner, Beth

2013-01-01

Estimating productivity for precocial species can be difficult because young birds leave their nest within hours or days of hatching and detectability thereafter can be very low. Recently, a method for using a modified catch-curve to estimate precocial chick daily survival for age based count data was presented using Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) data from the Missouri River. However, many of the assumptions of the catch-curve approach were not fully evaluated for precocial chicks. We developed a simulation model to mimic Piping Plovers, a fairly representative shorebird, and age-based count-data collection. Using the simulated data, we calculated daily survival estimates and compared them with the known daily survival rates from the simulation model. We conducted these comparisons under different sampling scenarios where the ecological and statistical assumptions had been violated. Overall, the daily survival estimates calculated from the simulated data corresponded well with true survival rates of the simulation. Violating the accurate aging and the independence assumptions did not result in biased daily survival estimates, whereas unequal detection for younger or older birds and violating the birth death equilibrium did result in estimator bias. Assuring that all ages are equally detectable and timing data collection to approximately meet the birth death equilibrium are key to the successful use of this method for precocial shorebirds.

Conditional survival is greater than overall survival at diagnosis in patients with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Benjamin J; Lynch, Charles F; Buckwalter, Joseph A

2013-11-01

Conditional survival is a measure of the risk of mortality given that a patient has survived a defined period of time. These estimates are clinically helpful, but have not been reported previously for osteosarcoma or Ewing's sarcoma. We determined the conditional survival of patients with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma given survival of 1 or more years. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database to investigate cases of osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma in patients younger than 40 years from 1973 to 2009. The SEER Program is managed by the National Cancer Institute and provides survival data gathered from population-based cancer registries. We used an actuarial life table analysis to determine any cancer cause-specific 5-year survival estimates conditional on 1 to 5 years of survival after diagnosis. We performed a similar analysis to determine 20-year survival from the time of diagnosis. The estimated 5-year survival improved each year after diagnosis. For local/regional osteosarcoma, the 5-year survival improved from 74.8% at baseline to 91.4% at 5 years-meaning that if a patient with localized osteosarcoma lives for 5 years, the chance of living for another 5 years is 91.4%. Similarly, the 5-year survivals for local/regional Ewing's sarcoma improved from 72.9% at baseline to 92.5% at 5 years, for metastatic osteosarcoma 35.5% at baseline to 85.4% at 5 years, and for metastatic Ewing's sarcoma 31.7% at baseline to 83.6% at 5 years. The likelihood of 20-year cause-specific survival from the time of diagnosis in osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma was almost 90% or greater after 10 years of survival, suggesting that while most patients will remain disease-free indefinitely, some experience cancer-related complications years after presumed eradication. The 5-year survival estimates of osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma improve with each additional year of patient survival. Knowledge of a changing risk profile is useful in counseling

Estimation of transfused red cell survival using an enzyme-linked antiglobulin test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kickler, T.S.; Smith, B.; Bell, W.; Drew, H.; Baldwin, M.; Ness, P.M.

1985-01-01

An enzyme-linked antiglobulin test (ELAT) method was developed to estimate survival of transfused red cells. This procedure is based on a principle analogous to that of the Ashby technique were antigenically distinct red cells are transfused and their survival studied. The authors compared the ELAT survival to the 51 Chromium method ( 51 Cr) in four patients. Three patients with hypoproliferative anemias showed T 1/2 by ELAT of 17.5, 18, and 17 days versus 18.5, 20, and 19 days by the 51 Cr method. A fourth patient with traumatic cardiac hemolysis had two studies performed. In this case, the ELAT showed a T 1/2 of 10 and 8.1 days while 51 Cr T 1/2 values were 11 and 10.5 days. The ELAT method for measuring red cell survival yielded data which agreed closely with the results of the 51 Cr method. Although 51 Cr is the accepted method for red cell survival, the ELAT method can be used to estimate transfused red cell survival

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ziya Kordjazi

Full Text Available Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days. The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery.

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

2016-01-01

Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

Parathyroid carcinoma survival: improvements in the era of intact parathyroid hormone monitoring?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steve R. Martinez

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH assay is a critical test in the diagnosis and management of PTH-mediated hypercalcemia, including parathyroid carcinoma (PCa. We hypothesized that the survival of patients diagnosed with PCa has improved since adoption of the iPTH assay into clinical practice. We identified all confirmed cases of PCa within the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database from 1973 to 2006. Patients were categorized into two eras based upon introduction of the iPTH assay: 1973 to 1997 (era I and 1997 to 2006 (era II, when the iPTH assay was in standard use. We estimated overall survival (OS and disease-specific survival (DSS using the Kaplan-Meier method, with differences among survival curves assessed via log rank. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models compared the survival rates between treatment eras while controlling for patient age, sex, race/ethnicity, tumor size, nodal status, extent of disease, and type of surgery. Multivariate models included patients undergoing potentially curative surgery and excluded those with dis- tant metastases. Risks of overall and disease-specific mortality were reported as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Study criteria were met by 370 patients. Median survival was 15.6 years. Five-year rates of OS and DSS were 78% and 88% for era I and 82% and 96% for era II. On multivariate analysis, age, black race, and unknown extent of disease predicted an increased risk of death from any cause. Treatment era did not predict OS. No factor predicted PCa-specific mortality. In multivariate analysis, neither OS nor DSS have improved in the current era that utilizes iPTH for the detection and management of PCa.

Adjuvant Medications That Improve Survival after Locoregional Therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Boas, F Edward; Ziv, Etay; Yarmohammadi, Hooman; Brown, Karen T; Erinjeri, Joseph P; Sofocleous, Constantinos T; Harding, James J; Solomon, Stephen B

2017-07-01

To determine if outpatient medications taken at the time of liver tumor embolization or ablation affect survival. A retrospective review was done of 2,032 liver tumor embolization, radioembolization, and ablation procedures performed in 1,092 patients from June 2009 to April 2016. Pathology, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) stage (American Joint Committee on Cancer), neuroendocrine tumor (NET) grade, initial locoregional therapy, overall survival after initial locoregional therapy, Child-Pugh score, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and outpatient medications taken at the time of locoregional therapy were analyzed for each patient. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were calculated for patients taking 29 medications or medication classes (including prescription and nonprescription medications) for reasons unrelated to their primary cancer diagnosis. Kaplan-Meier curves were compared using the log-rank test. For patients with HCC initially treated with embolization (n = 304 patients), the following medications were associated with improved survival when taken at the time of embolization: beta-blockers (P = .0007), aspirin (P = .0008) and other nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (P = .009), proton pump inhibitors (P = .004), and antivirals for hepatitis B or C (P = .01). For colorectal liver metastases initially treated with ablation (n = 172 patients), beta-blockers were associated with improved survival when taken at the time of ablation (P = .02). Aspirin and beta-blockers are associated with significantly improved survival when taken at the time of embolization for HCC. Aspirin was not associated with survival differences after locoregional therapy for NET or colorectal liver metastases, suggesting an HCC-specific effect. Copyright © 2017 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causal inference for long-term survival in randomised trials with treatment switching: Should re-censoring be applied when estimating counterfactual survival times?

OpenAIRE

Latimer, N.R.; White, I.R.; Abrams, K.R.; Sieburt, U.

2017-01-01

Treatment switching often has a crucial impact on estimates of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new oncology treatments. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and two-stage estimation (TSE) methods estimate ‘counterfactual’ (i.e. had there been no switching) survival times and incorporate re-censoring to guard against informative censoring in the counterfactual dataset. However, re-censoring causes a loss of longer term survival information which is problematic when e...

Improved survival in HIV treatment programs in Asia

Science.gov (United States)

De La Mata, Nicole L; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Khol, Vohith; Ng, Oon Tek; Van Nguyen, Kinh; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Pham, Thuy Thanh; Lee, Man Po; Durier, Nicolas; Law, Matthew

2016-01-01

Background Antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV-positive patients has expanded rapidly in Asia over the last ten years. Our study aimed to describe the time trends and risk factors for overall survival in patients receiving first-line ART in Asia. Methods We included HIV-positive adult patients who initiated ART between 2003–2013 (n=16 546), from seven sites across six Asia-Pacific countries. Patient follow-up was to May 2014. We compared survival for each country and overall by time period of ART initiation using Kaplan-Meier curves. Factors associated with mortality were assessed using Cox regression, stratified by site. We also summarized first-line ART regimens, CD4 count at ART initiation, and CD4 and HIV viral load testing frequencies. Results There were 880 deaths observed over 54 532 person-years of follow-up, a crude rate of 1.61 (1.51, 1.72) per 100 person-years. Survival significantly improved in more recent years of ART initiation. The survival probabilities at 4 years follow-up for those initiating ART in 2003–05 was 92.1%, 2006–09 was 94.3% and 2010–2013 was 94.5% (pAsia have improved survival in more recent years of ART initiation. This is likely a consequence of improvements in treatment and, patient management and monitoring over time. PMID:26961354

Up-to-date and projected estimates of survival for people with cystic fibrosis using baseline characteristics: A longitudinal study using UK patient registry data.

Science.gov (United States)

Keogh, Ruth H; Szczesniak, Rhonda; Taylor-Robinson, David; Bilton, Diana

2018-03-01

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common inherited disease in Caucasians, affecting around 10,000 individuals in the UK today. Prognosis has improved considerably over recent decades with ongoing improvements in treatment and care. Providing up-to-date survival predictions is important for patients, clinicians and health services planning. Flexible parametric survival modelling of UK CF Registry data from 2011 to 2015, capturing 602 deaths in 10,428 individuals. Survival curves were estimated from birth; conditional on reaching older ages; and projected under different assumptions concerning future mortality trends, using baseline characteristics of sex, CFTR genotype (zero, one, two copies of F508del) and age at diagnosis. Male sex was associated with better survival, as was older age at diagnosis, but only in F508del non-homozygotes. Survival did not differ by genotype among individuals diagnosed at birth. Median survival ages at birth in F508del homozygotes were 46years (males) and 41years (females), and similar in non-homozygotes diagnosed at birth. F508del heterozygotes diagnosed aged 5 had median survival ages of 57 (males) and 51 (females). Conditional on survival to 30, median survival age rises to 52 (males) and 49 (females) in homozygotes. Mortality rates decreased annually by 2% during 2006-2015. Future improvements at this rate suggest median survival ages for F508del homozygous babies of 65 (males) and 56 (females). Over half of babies born today, and of individuals aged 30 and above today, can expect to survive into at least their fifth decade. Evidence before this study We searched PubMed with terms "(cystic fibrosis survival) and (projection OR model OR registry OR United Kingdom OR UK)" to identify relevant studies on survival estimates for individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF). We also considered the most recent annual report from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry (Cystic Fibrosis Trust, 2016), a review by Buzzetti and colleagues (2009), the chapter

Annual survival estimation of migratory songbirds confounded by incomplete breeding site-fidelity: study designs that may help

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Marshall, M. R.

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Many species of bird exhibit varying degrees of site–fidelity to the previous year’s territory or breeding area, a phenomenon we refer to as incomplete breeding site–fidelity. If the territory they occupy is located beyond the bounds of the study area or search area (i.e., they have emigrated from the study area, the bird will go undetected and is therefore indistinguishable from dead individuals in capture–mark–recapture studies. Differential emigration rates confound inferences regarding differences in survival between sexes and among species if apparent survival rates are used as estimates of true survival. Moreover, the bias introduced by using apparent survival rates for true survival rates can have profound effects on the predictions of population persistence through time, source/sink dynamics, and other aspects of life–history theory. We investigated four study design and analysis approaches that result in apparent survival estimates that are closer to true survival estimates. Our motivation for this research stemmed from a multi–year capture–recapture study of Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea on multiple study plots within a larger landscape of suitable breeding habitat where substantial inter–annual movements of marked individuals among neighboring study plots was documented. We wished to quantify the effects of this type of movement on annual survival estimation. The first two study designs we investigated involved marking birds in a core area and resighting them in the core as well as an area surrounding the core. For the first of these two designs, we demonstrated that as the resighting area surrounding the core gets progressively larger, and more “emigrants” are resighted, apparent survival estimates begin to approximate true survival rates (bias < 0.01. However, given observed inter–annual movements of birds, it is likely to be logistically impractical to resight birds on sufficiently large

Survival chance in papillary thyroid cancer in Hungary: individual survival probability estimation using the Markov method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esik, Olga; Tusnady, Gabor; Daubner, Kornel; Nemeth, Gyoergy; Fuezy, Marton; Szentirmay, Zoltan

1997-01-01

Purpose: The typically benign, but occasionally rapidly fatal clinical course of papillary thyroid cancer has raised the need for individual survival probability estimation, to tailor the treatment strategy exclusively to a given patient. Materials and methods: A retrospective study was performed on 400 papillary thyroid cancer patients with a median follow-up time of 7.1 years to establish a clinical database for uni- and multivariate analysis of the prognostic factors related to survival (Kaplan-Meier product limit method and Cox regression). For a more precise prognosis estimation, the effect of the most important clinical events were then investigated on the basis of a Markov renewal model. The basic concept of this approach is that each patient has an individual disease course which (besides the initial clinical categories) is affected by special events, e.g. internal covariates (local/regional/distant relapses). On the supposition that these events and the cause-specific death are influenced by the same biological processes, the parameters of transient survival probability characterizing the speed of the course of the disease for each clinical event and their sequence were determined. The individual survival curves for each patient were calculated by using these parameters and the independent significant clinical variables selected from multivariate studies, summation of which resulted in a mean cause-specific survival function valid for the entire group. On the basis of this Markov model, prediction of the cause-specific survival probability is possible for extrastudy cases, if it is supposed that the clinical events occur within new patients in the same manner and with the similar probability as within the study population. Results: The patient's age, a distant metastasis at presentation, the extent of the surgical intervention, the primary tumor size and extent (pT), the external irradiation dosage and the degree of TSH suppression proved to be

Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

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Powell, L.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Krementz, D.G.

2000-01-01

Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ? 0.007 ( ?SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [S_radioed, ~ S_banded]=log [S hat _radioed/ S hat _banded]=0.0239 ? 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata (psi hat=0.911 ? 0.020; alpha hat [psi11, psi22]=0.0161 ? 0.047), and recapture rates ( = 0.097 ? 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [p_radioed, p_banded]=0.145 ? 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] inference from this model, study designs should seek a minimum of 25 animals of each marking type observed (marked or observed via telemetry) in each time period and geographic stratum.

A method of moments to estimate bivariate survival functions: the copula approach

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Silvia Angela Osmetti

2013-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper we discuss the problem on parametric and non parametric estimation of the distributions generated by the Marshall-Olkin copula. This copula comes from the Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution used in reliability analysis. We generalize this model by the copula and different marginal distributions to construct several bivariate survival functions. The cumulative distribution functions are not absolutely continuous and they unknown parameters are often not be obtained in explicit form. In order to estimate the parameters we propose an easy procedure based on the moments. This method consist in two steps: in the first step we estimate only the parameters of marginal distributions and in the second step we estimate only the copula parameter. This procedure can be used to estimate the parameters of complex survival functions in which it is difficult to find an explicit expression of the mixed moments. Moreover it is preferred to the maximum likelihood one for its simplex mathematic form; in particular for distributions whose maximum likelihood parameters estimators can not be obtained in explicit form.

Meta-analysis of single-arm survival studies: a distribution-free approach for estimating summary survival curves with random effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Combescure, Christophe; Foucher, Yohann; Jackson, Daniel

2014-07-10

In epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with time-dependent outcome (for instance death or disease progression), survival curves are used to describe the risk of the event over time. In meta-analyses of studies reporting a survival curve, the most informative finding is a summary survival curve. In this paper, we propose a method to obtain a distribution-free summary survival curve by expanding the product-limit estimator of survival for aggregated survival data. The extension of DerSimonian and Laird's methodology for multiple outcomes is applied to account for the between-study heterogeneity. Statistics I(2)  and H(2) are used to quantify the impact of the heterogeneity in the published survival curves. A statistical test for between-strata comparison is proposed, with the aim to explore study-level factors potentially associated with survival. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in a simulation study. Our approach is also applied to synthesize the survival of untreated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from aggregate data of 27 studies and synthesize the graft survival of kidney transplant recipients from individual data from six hospitals. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Improvements in logistics could increase survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Sweden.

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Strömsöe, A; Afzelius, S; Axelsson, C; Södersved Källestedt, M L; Enlund, M; Svensson, L; Herlitz, J

2013-06-01

In a review based on estimations and assumptions, to report the estimated number of survivors after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in whom cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) was started and to speculate about possible future improvements in Sweden. An observational study. All ambulance organisations in Sweden. Patients included in the Swedish Cardiac Arrest Registry who suffered an OHCA between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2010. Approximately 80% of OHCA cases in Sweden in which CPR was started are included. None In 11 005 patients, the 1-month survival rate was 9.4%. There are approximately 5000 OHCA cases annually in which CPR is started and 30-day survival is achieved in up to 500 patients yearly (6 per 100 000 inhabitants). Based on findings on survival in relation to the time to calling for the Emergency Medical Service (EMS) and the start of CPR and defibrillation, it was estimated that, if the delay from collapse to (i) calling EMS, (ii) the start of CPR, and (iii) the time to defibrillation were reduced to <2 min, <2 min, and <8 min, respectively, 300-400 additional lives could be saved. Based on findings relating to the delay to calling for the EMS and the start of CPR and defibrillation, we speculate that 300-400 additional OHCA patients yearly (4 per 100 000 inhabitants) could be saved in Sweden. © 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Estimating cost-effectiveness of mass cardiopulmonary resuscitation training strategies to improve survival from cardiac arrest in private locations.

Science.gov (United States)

Swor, Robert; Compton, Scott

2004-01-01

Most cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) trainees are young, and most cardiac arrests occur in private residences witnessed by older individuals. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a CPR training program targeted at citizens over the age of 50 years compared with that of current nontargeted public CPR training. A model was developed using cardiac arrest and known demographic data from a single suburban zip code (population 36,325) including: local data (1997-1999) regarding cardiac arrest locations (public vs. private); incremental survival with CPR (historical survival rate 7.8%, adjusted odds ratio for CPR 2.0); arrest bystander demographics obtained from bystander telephone interviews; zip code demographics regarding population age and distribution; and 12.50 dollars per student for the cost of CPR training. Published rates of CPR training programs by age were used to estimate the numbers typically trained. Several assumptions were made: 1) there would be one bystander per. arrest; 2) the bystander would always perform CPR if trained; 3) cardiac arrest would be evenly distributed in the population; and 4) CPR training for a proportion of the population would proportionally increase CPR provision. Rates of arrest, bystanders by age, number of CPR trainees needed to result in increased arrest survival, and training cost per life saved for a one-year study period were calculated. There were 24.3 cardiac arrests per year, with 21.9 (90%) occurring in homes. In 66.5% of the home arrests, the bystander was more than 50 years old. To yield one additional survivor using the current CPR training strategy, 12,306 people needed to be trained (3,510 bystanders aged 50 years), which resulted in CPR provision to 7.14 additional patients. The training cost per life saved for a bystander aged 50 years was 785,040 dollars. Using a strategy of training only those cost of 53,383 dollars per life saved. Using these assumptions, current CPR training strategy is not a cost

Factors associated with improved survival among older colorectal cancer patients in the US: a population-based analysis

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Earle Craig C

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to estimate the relative impact of changes in demographics, stage at detection, treatment mix, and medical technology on 5-year survival among older colorectal cancer (CRC patients. Methods We selected older patients diagnosed with CRC between 1992 and 2000 from the SEER-Medicare database and followed them through 2005. Trends in demographic characteristics, stage at detection and initial treatment mix were evaluated descriptively. Separate multivariate logistic regression models for colon (CC and rectal cancer (RC patients were estimated to isolate the independent effects of these factors along with technological change (proxied by cohort year on 5-year survival. Results Our sample included 37,808 CC and 13,619 RC patients (combined mean ± SD age: 77.2 ± 7.0 years; 55% female; 87% white. In recent years, more CC patients were diagnosed at Stage I and fewer at Stages II and IV, and more RC patients were diagnosed at Stage I and fewer at Stages II and III. CC and RC patients diagnosed in later years were slightly older with somewhat better Charlson scores and were more likely to be female, from the Northeast, and from areas with higher average education levels. Surgery alone was more common in later years for CC patients while combined surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy was more common for RC patients. Between 1992 and 2000, 5-year observed survival improved from 43.0% to 46.3% for CC patients and from 39.4% to 42.2% for RC patients. Multivariate logistic regressions indicate that patients diagnosed in 2000 had significantly greater odds of 5-year survival than those diagnosed in 1992 (OR: 1.35 for CC, 1.38 for RC. Our decomposition suggests that early detection had little impact on survival; rather, technological improvements (e.g., new medical technologies or more effective use of existing technologies and changing demographics were responsible for the largest share of the change in 5

Improving fish survival through turbines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferguson, J.W.

1993-01-01

Much of what is known about fish passage through hydroturbines has been developed by studying migratory species of fish passing through large Kaplan turbine units. A review of the literature on previous fish passage research presented in the accompanying story illustrates that studies have focused on determining mortality levels, rather than identifying the causal mechanism involved. There is a need for understanding how turbine designs could be altered to improve fish passage conditions, how to retrofit existing units, and how proposed hydro plant operational changes may affect fish survival. The US Army Corps of Engineers has developed a research program to define biologically based engineering criteria for improving fish passage conditions. Turbine designs incorporating these criteria can be evaluated for their effects on fish survival, engineering issues, costs, and power production. The research program has the following objectives: To gain a thorough knowledge of the mechanisms of fish mortality; To define the biological sensitivities of key fish species to these mechanisms of mortality; To develop new turbine design criteria to reduce fish mortality; To construct prototype turbine designs, and to test these designs for fish passage, hydro-mechanical operation, and power production; and To identify construction and power costs associated with new turbine designs

Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

Science.gov (United States)

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

1995-01-01

We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

Science.gov (United States)

Fronczak, David L.; Andersen, David E.; Hanna, Everett E.; Cooper, Thomas R.

2015-01-01

Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes (n  =  42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval  =  0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities (n  =  5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

Genetic introgression and the survival of Florida panther kittens

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Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Onorato, David P.; Nichols, James D.; Johnson, Warren E.; Roelke, Melody E.; O'Brien, Stephen J.; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K.

2010-01-01

Estimates of survival for the young of a species are critical for population models. These models can often be improved by determining the effects of management actions and population abundance on this demographic parameter. We used multiple sources of data collected during 1982–2008 and a live-recapture dead-recovery modeling framework to estimate and model survival of Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) kittens (age 0–1 year). Overall, annual survival of Florida panther kittens was 0.323 ± 0.071 (SE), which was lower than estimates used in previous population models. In 1995, female pumas from Texas (P. c. stanleyana) were released into occupied panther range as part of an intentional introgression program to restore genetic variability. We found that kitten survival generally increased with degree of admixture: F1 admixed and backcrossed to Texas kittens survived better than canonical Florida panther and backcrossed to canonical kittens. Average heterozygosity positively influenced kitten and older panther survival, whereas index of panther abundance negatively influenced kitten survival. Our results provide strong evidence for the positive population-level impact of genetic introgression on Florida panthers. Our approach to integrate data from multiple sources was effective at improving robustness as well as precision of estimates of Florida panther kitten survival, and can be useful in estimating vital rates for other elusive species with sparse data.

Improved survival after rectal cancer in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bülow, S; Harling, H; Iversen, L H

2010-01-01

Objective In 1995, an analysis showed an inferior prognosis after rectal cancer in Denmark compared with the other Scandinavian countries. The Danish Colorectal Cancer Group (DCCG) was established with the aim of improving the prognosis, and in this study we present a survival analysis of patients...... treated from 1994 to 2006. Method The study was based on the National Rectal Cancer Registry and the National Colorectal Cancer Database, supplemented with data from the Central Population Registry. The analysis included actuarial overall and relative survival. Results A total of 10 632 patients were...

Economic evaluation of nivolumab for the treatment of second-line advanced squamous NSCLC in Canada: a comparison of modeling approaches to estimate and extrapolate survival outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Goeree, Ron; Villeneuve, Julie; Goeree, Jeff; Penrod, John R; Orsini, Lucinda; Tahami Monfared, Amir Abbas

2016-06-01

Background Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer in the world and is associated with significant mortality. Nivolumab demonstrated statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for patients with advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were previously treated. The cost-effectiveness of nivolumab has not been assessed in Canada. A contentious component of projecting long-term cost and outcomes in cancer relates to the modeling approach adopted, with the two most common approaches being partitioned survival (PS) and Markov models. The objectives of this analysis were to estimate the cost-utility of nivolumab and to compare the results using these alternative modeling approaches. Methods Both PS and Markov models were developed using docetaxel and erlotinib as comparators. A three-health state model was used consisting of progression-free, progressed disease, and death. Disease progression and time to progression were estimated by identifying best-fitting survival curves from the clinical trial data for PFS and OS. Expected costs and health outcomes were calculated by combining health-state occupancy with medical resource use and quality-of-life assigned to each of the three health states. The health outcomes included in the model were survival and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs). Results Nivolumab was found to have the highest expected per-patient cost, but also improved per-patient life years (LYs) and QALYs. Nivolumab cost an additional $151,560 and $140,601 per QALY gained compared to docetaxel and erlotinib, respectively, using a PS model approach. The cost-utility estimates using a Markov model were very similar ($152,229 and $141,838, respectively, per QALY gained). Conclusions Nivolumab was found to involve a trade-off between improved patient survival and QALYs, and increased cost. It was found that the use of a PS or Markov model produced very similar estimates of expected cost

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

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Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Henslow's sparrow winter-survival estimates and response to prescribed burning

Science.gov (United States)

Thatcher, B.S.; Krementz, D.G.; Woodrey, M.S.

2006-01-01

Wintering Henslow's sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii) populations rely on lands managed with prescribed burning, but the effects of various burn regimes on their overwinter survival are unknown. We studied wintering Henslow's sparrows in coastal pine savannas at the Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, Jackson County, Mississippi, USA, during January and February 2001 and 2002. We used the known-fate modeling procedure in program MARK to evaluate the effects of burn age (1 or 2 growing seasons elapsed), burn season (growing, dormant), and calendar year on the survival rates of 83 radiomarked Henslow's sparrows. We found strong evidence that Henslow's sparrow survival rates differed by burn age (with higher survival in recently burned sites) and by year (with lower survival rates in 2001 likely because of drought conditions). We found some evidence that survival rates also differed by bum season (with higher survival in growing-season sites), although the effects of burn season were only apparent in recently burned sites. Avian predation was the suspected major cause of mortality (causing 6 of 14 deaths) with 1 confirmed loggerhead shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) depredation. Our results indicated that recently burned savannas provide high-quality wintering habitats and suggested that managers can improve conditions for wintering Henslow's sparrows by burning a large percentage of savannas each year.

Parental care improves offspring survival and growth in burying beetles

Science.gov (United States)

Eggert; Reinking; MULLER

1998-01-01

Burying beetles (genus Nicrophorus) provide elaborate parental care to their offspring. Parental beetles defend a small vertebrate carcass, which constitutes the sole food source for the larvae. They also manipulate the carcass in various ways and directly regurgitate pre-digested carrion to the young. The benefits of carcass manipulation and regurgitation have been the subject of a few small-scale studies that have yielded conflicting results. In this study, we investigated the benefits of these behaviours and tested for possible beneficial effects on larval survival rates and final body mass in N. vespilloides. In this species: (1) larval survival and mass were significantly higher in broods receiving parental care throughout larval development on the carcass than in broods developing in the absence of adults; (2) parental presence immediately subsequent to larval hatching greatly improved larval survival rates; (3) continued parental presence for several days further improved larval growth, leading to a greater final mass of individual larvae; (4) larval survival and growth were improved by parental preparation of carcasses and by an excision made in the integument of the carcass surface by the parents that allows the larvae ready access to their food; (5) positive effects of parental feeding on larval survival and growth were not mediated by the transfer of symbionts. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1993 Annual Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iwamoto, Robert N.; Sandford, Benjamin P.; McIntyre, Kenneth W.

1994-04-01

A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at different areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers.

Survival estimates for the passage of juvenile chinook salmon through Snake River dams and reservoirs. Annual report 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwamoto, R.N.; Muir, W.D.; Sandford, B.P.; McIntyre, K.W.; Frost, D.A.; Williams, J.G.; Smith, S.G.; Skalski, J.R.

1994-04-01

A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at different areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers

Role of TIPS in Improving Survival of Patients with Decompensated Liver Disease

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Sundeep J. Punamiya

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Liver cirrhosis is associated with higher morbidity and reduced survival with appearance of portal hypertension and resultant decompensation. Portal decompression plays a key role in improving survival in these patients. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts are known to be efficacious in reducing portal venous pressure and control of complications such as variceal bleeding and ascites. However, they have been associated with significant problems such as poor shunt durability, increased encephalopathy, and unchanged survival when compared with conservative treatment options. The last decade has seen a significant improvement in these complications, with introduction of covered stents, better selection of patients, and clearer understanding of procedural end-points. Use of TIPS early in the period of decompensation also appears promising in further improvement of survival of cirrhotic patients.

Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

2010-10-01

Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2014-03-03

Mar 3, 2014 ... ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE AND RISK OF SURVIVAL IN ACUTE STROKE. E. I. Okaka, MBBS, FWACP, F. A. Imarhiagbe, MBChB, FMCP, F. E. Odiase, MBBS, FMCP, O. C. A. Okoye, MBBS, FWACP,. Department of Medicine, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria.

38 CFR 3.24 - Improved pension rates-Surviving children.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Improved pension rates-Surviving children. 3.24 Section 3.24 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS ADJUDICATION Pension, Compensation, and Dependency and Indemnity Compensation General § 3.24 Improved pension...

Cancer survival among Alaska Native people.

Science.gov (United States)

Nash, Sarah H; Meisner, Angela L W; Zimpelman, Garrett L; Barry, Marc; Wiggins, Charles L

2018-03-26

Recent cancer survival trends among American Indian and Alaska Native (AN) people are not well understood; survival has not been reported among AN people since 2001. This study examined cause-specific survival among AN cancer patients for lung, colorectal, female breast, prostate, and kidney cancers. It evaluated whether survival differed between cancers diagnosed in 1992-2002 (the earlier period) and cancers diagnosed in 2003-2013 (the later period) and by the age at diagnosis (<65 vs ≥65 years), stage at diagnosis (local or regional/distant/unknown), and sex. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate univariate and multivariate-adjusted cause-specific survival for each cancer. An improvement was observed in 5-year survival over time from lung cancer (hazard ratio [HR] for the later period vs the earlier period, 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.97), and a marginally nonsignificant improvement was observed for colorectal cancer (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-1.01). Site-specific differences in survival were observed by age and stage at diagnosis. This study presents the first data on cancer survival among AN people in almost 2 decades. During this time, AN people have experienced improvements in survival from lung and colorectal cancers. The reasons for these improvements may include increased access to care (including screening) as well as improvements in treatment. Improving cancer survival should be a priority for reducing the burden of cancer among AN people and eliminating cancer disparities. Cancer 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

2015-01-01

Context: The band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) is a migratory species occurring in western North America with low recruitment potential and populations that have declined an average of 2.4% per year since the 1960s. Investigations into band-tailed pigeon demographic rates date back to the early 1900s, and existing annual survival rate estimates were derived in the 1970s using band return data.

SURVIVAL ESTIMATES OF BYCATCH INDIVIDUALS DISCARDED FROM BIVALVE DREDGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco Leitão

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The fate of released bycatch is an issue of great interest for fisheries research and management. Survival experiments were carried out to assess the survival capacity of animals damaged and discarded during clam dredging operations. Three common bycatch species, two fish (Trachinus vipera; Dicologlossa cuneata and one crab (Polybius henslowii, were collected during the sorting of catches from a commercial dredging boat. An arbitrary score scale was used to quantify the type and extent of damage to the organisms. Onboard, damaged individuals were placed in tanks containing seawater which were subsequently transferred to the laboratory. Survival experiments were conducted during the subsequent 48h. D. cuneata exhibited the lowest mortality after 48h (54%, followed by P. henslowii (65% and T. vipera (81%. Despite the magnitude of the percentage mortalities determined, the average number of individuals estimated to die during a 15 minutes tow (standard commercial fishing time was relatively small: 1.2, 3.24 and 11 for D. cuneata, T. vipera and P. henslowii, respectively. Nevertheless, when these figures are extrapolated to cover all the dredging fleet the impact of this practice on the populations of the species studied can be significant, particulary for D. cuneata.

marine survival ecosystem indicators - Estimating the ecosystem indicators of anadromous salmonids in the Puget Sound region

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The objective of this project is to develop a simple approach for estimating the marine survival and causes of trends in survival. Data is a summary of ecosystem...

Kaempferol and Chrysin Synergies to Improve Septic Mice Survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Harasstani, Omar A; Tham, Chau Ling; Israf, Daud A

2017-01-06

Previously, we reported the role of synergy between two flavonoids-namely, chrysin and kaempferol-in inhibiting the secretion of a few major proinflammatory mediators such as tumor necrosis factor -alpha (TNF-α), prostaglandin E₂ (PGE₂) , and nitric oxide (NO) from lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced RAW 264.7 cells. The present study aims to evaluate the effects of this combination on a murine model of polymicrobial sepsis induced by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). Severe sepsis was induced in male ICR mice ( n = 7) via the CLP procedure. The effects of chrysin and kaempferol combination treatment on septic mice were investigated using a 7-day survival study. The levels of key proinflammatory mediators and markers-such as aspartate aminotransferase (AST), TNF-α, and NO-in the sera samples of the septic mice were determined via ELISA and fluorescence determination at different time point intervals post-CLP challenge. Liver tissue samples from septic mice were harvested to measure myeloperoxidase (MPO) levels using a spectrophotometer. Moreover, intraperitoneal fluid (IPF) bacterial clearance and total leukocyte count were also assessed to detect any antibacterial effects exerted by chrysin and kaempferol, individually and in combination. Kaempferol treatment improved the survival rate of CLP-challenged mice by up to 16%. During this treatment, kaempferol expressed antibacterial, antiapoptotic and antioxidant activities through the attenuation of bacterial forming units, AST and NO levels, and increased polymorphonuclear leukocyte (PMN) count in the IPF. On the other hand, the chrysin treatment significantly reduced serum TNF-α levels. However, it failed to significantly improve the survival rate of the CLP-challenged mice. Subsequently, the kaempferol/chrysin combination treatment significantly improved the overall 7-day survival rate by 2-fold-up to 29%. Kaempferol and chrysin revealed some synergistic effects by acting individually upon multiple

[Estimations of maternal mortality using the sisterhood survival method: Latin American experience].

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, L R; Simons, H; Graham, W; Schkolnik, S

1990-08-01

The method of surviving sisters for indirectly estimating maternal mortality is still under development but shows promise for countries lacking alternative sources of data and good statistics. This work uses census or survey data to apply the method to rural villages in Gambia; Mapuche settlements in Cautin, Chile; marginal populations on the outskirts of Lima, Peru; and rural villages of Avaroa, Bolivia. The method is explained in detail following presentation of the results. The necessary basic information is outlined, and the particularities of its application to each Latin American case are discussed. The surviving sisters method was developed by Graham and Brass to derive indicators of maternal mortality based on the proportion of sisters who arrive at fertile age and die during pregnancy, delivery, or the postpartum period. The method transforms the proportions of sisters who died of maternal causes obtained from a census or survey into conventional probabilities of death. The basic information required concerns the numbers of sisters entering the reproductive period (excluding the respondent is she is a woman), the number surviving and decreased at the survey data, and the number who died during pregnancy, delivery, or the postpartum period. The probabilities of dying from a maternal cause were estimated on the basis of the sister survival method at 1/98 in Lima, 1/53 in Cautin, 1/17 in Gambia, and 1/10 in Bolivia. These probabilities correspond to ratios of maternal mortality per 100,000 live births of 286 in Lima, 414 in Cautin, 1005 in Gambia, and 1379 in Bolivia. The results demonstrate great variability in maternal mortality rates. In the cases of Lima and Cautin there were significant differences between estimates derived from the sister survival method and those derived from vital statistics. The 4 cases demonstrated the familiar association between maternal and infant mortality, fertility, and overall female mortality expressed in life expectancy at

Survival estimates for the passage of juvenile salmonids through Snake River dams and reservoirs, 1996. Annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, S.G.; Muir, W.D.; Hockersmith, E.E.; Achord, S.; Eppard, M.B.; Ruehle, T.E.; Williams, J.G.

1998-02-01

In 1996, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the fourth year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected near the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and at Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Individual smolts were subsequently detected at PIT-tag detection facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release (SR) and Paired-Release (PR) Models. Timing of releases of tagged hatchery steelhead (O. mykiss) from the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and yearling chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) from Lower Granite Dam in 1996 spanned the major portion of their juvenile migrations. Specific research objectives in 1996 were to (1) estimate reach and project survival in the Snake River using the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations, (2) evaluate the performance of the survival-estimation models under prevailing operational and environmental conditions in the Snake River, and (3) synthesize results from the 4 years of the study to investigate relationships between survival probabilities, travel times, and environmental factors such as flow levels and water temperature

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1996 Annual Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Steven G.

1998-02-01

In 1996, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the fourth year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected near the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and at Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Individual smolts were subsequently detected at PIT-tag detection facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release (SR) and Paired-Release (PR) Models. Timing of releases of tagged hatchery steelhead (O. mykiss) from the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and yearling chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) from Lower Granite Dam in 1996 spanned the major portion of their juvenile migrations. Specific research objectives in 1996 were to (1) estimate reach and project survival in the Snake River using the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations, (2) evaluate the performance of the survival-estimation models under prevailing operational and environmental conditions in the Snake River, and (3) synthesize results from the 4 years of the study to investigate relationships between survival probabilities, travel times, and environmental factors such as flow levels and water temperature.

Estimation of Inbreeding Coefficient and Its Effects on Lamb Survival in Sheep

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

mohammad almasi

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction The mating of related individuals produces an inbred offspring and leads to an increased homozygosity in the progeny, genetic variance decrease within families and increase between families. The ration of homozygosity for individuals was calculated by inbreeding coefficient. Inbred individuals may carry two alleles at a locus that are replicated from one gene in the previous generations, called identical by descent. The inbreeding coefficient should be monitored in a breeding program, since it plays an important role at decreasing of homeostasis, performance, reproduction and viability. The trend of inbreeding is an indicator for determining of inbreeding level in the herd. Inbreeding affects both phenotypic means of traits and genetic variances within population, thus it is an important factor for delimitations of genetic progress in a population. Reports showed an inbreeding increase led to decrease of phenotypic value in some of the productive and reproductive traits. Materials and Methods In the current study, the pedigree data of 14030 and 6215 records of Baluchi and Iranblack lambs that collected from 1984 to 2011 at the Abbasabad Sheep Breeding Station in Mashhad, Iran, 3588 records of Makoei lambs that collected from 1994 to 2011 at the Makoei sheep breeding station and 6140, records of Zandi lambs that collected from 1991 to 2011 at the Khejir Sheep Breeding Station in Tehran, Iran were used to estimating the inbreeding coefficient and its effects on lamb survival in these breeds. Lamb survival trait was scored as 1 and 0 for lamb surviving and not surviving at weaning weight, respectively. Inbreeding coefficient was estimated by relationship matrix algorithm (A=TDT' methodology using the CFC software program. Effects of inbreeding coefficient on lamb survival were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood (REML method under 12 different animal models using ASReml 3.0 computer programme. Coefficient of inbreeding for each

Improving village poultry's survival rate through community-based poultry health management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sodjinou, Epiphane; Henningsen, Arne; Koudande, Olorounto Delphin

2012-01-01

Community-based poultry health management (CBM) is a strategy for village poultry improvement based on the installment of “poultry interest groups” in experimental villages. These groups serve as a channel for the dissemination of village poultry improvement technologies. The use of CBM is due...... to the fact that village poultry farming is practiced in a total or partial scavenging system which gives the impression that all the birds in the village belong to the same flock. Accordingly, actions that target all farmers of the same village may have a larger impact on the village poultry's survival rate...... than actions that target individual producers. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of CBM on the survival rate of village poultry. Based on data collected on 353 poultry keepers, the study shows that CBM significantly improves the survival rate of village poultry. The adoption...

Estimating the average treatment effect on survival based on observational data and using partly conditional modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

2017-03-01

Treatments are frequently evaluated in terms of their effect on patient survival. In settings where randomization of treatment is not feasible, observational data are employed, necessitating correction for covariate imbalances. Treatments are usually compared using a hazard ratio. Most existing methods which quantify the treatment effect through the survival function are applicable to treatments assigned at time 0. In the data structure of our interest, subjects typically begin follow-up untreated; time-until-treatment, and the pretreatment death hazard are both heavily influenced by longitudinal covariates; and subjects may experience periods of treatment ineligibility. We propose semiparametric methods for estimating the average difference in restricted mean survival time attributable to a time-dependent treatment, the average effect of treatment among the treated, under current treatment assignment patterns. The pre- and posttreatment models are partly conditional, in that they use the covariate history up to the time of treatment. The pre-treatment model is estimated through recently developed landmark analysis methods. For each treated patient, fitted pre- and posttreatment survival curves are projected out, then averaged in a manner which accounts for the censoring of treatment times. Asymptotic properties are derived and evaluated through simulation. The proposed methods are applied to liver transplant data in order to estimate the effect of liver transplantation on survival among transplant recipients under current practice patterns. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Brachytherapy Improves Survival in Stage III Endometrial Cancer With Cervical Involvement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bingham, Brian [Department of Radiation Oncology, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (United States); Orton, Andrew; Boothe, Dustin [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States); Stoddard, Greg [Division of Epidemiology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States); Huang, Y. Jessica; Gaffney, David K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States); Poppe, Matthew M., E-mail: Matthew.poppe@hci.utah.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States)

2017-04-01

Purpose: To evaluate the survival benefit of adding vaginal brachytherapy (BT) to pelvic external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) in women with stage III endometrial cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was used to identify patients with stage III endometrial cancer from 2004 to 2013. Only women who received adjuvant EBRT were analyzed. Women were grouped according to receipt of BT. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify predictors of receiving BT. Log–rank statistics were used to compare survival outcomes. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to evaluate the effect of BT on survival. A propensity score–matched analysis was also conducted among women with cervical involvement. Results: We evaluated 12,988 patients with stage III endometrial carcinoma, 39% of whom received EBRT plus BT. Women who received BT were more likely to have endocervical or cervical stromal involvement (odds ratios 2.03 and 1.77; P<.01, respectively). For patients receiving EBRT alone, the 5-year survival was 66% versus 69% with the addition of BT at 5 years (P<.01). Brachytherapy remained significantly predictive of decreased risk of death (hazard ratio 0.86; P<.01) on multivariate Cox regression. The addition of BT to EBRT did not affect survival among women without cervical involvement (P=.84). For women with endocervical or cervical stromal invasion, the addition of BT significantly improved survival (log–rank P<.01). Receipt of EBRT plus BT was associated with improved survival in women with positive and negative surgical margins, and receiving chemotherapy did not alter the benefit of BT. Propensity score–matched analysis results confirmed the benefit of BT among women with cervical involvement (hazard ratio 0.80; P=.01). Conclusions: In this population of women with stage III endometrial cancer the addition of BT to EBRT was associated with an improvement in survival for women with endocervical or cervical stromal invasion.

Brachytherapy Improves Survival in Stage III Endometrial Cancer With Cervical Involvement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bingham, Brian; Orton, Andrew; Boothe, Dustin; Stoddard, Greg; Huang, Y. Jessica; Gaffney, David K.; Poppe, Matthew M.

2017-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the survival benefit of adding vaginal brachytherapy (BT) to pelvic external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) in women with stage III endometrial cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was used to identify patients with stage III endometrial cancer from 2004 to 2013. Only women who received adjuvant EBRT were analyzed. Women were grouped according to receipt of BT. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify predictors of receiving BT. Log–rank statistics were used to compare survival outcomes. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to evaluate the effect of BT on survival. A propensity score–matched analysis was also conducted among women with cervical involvement. Results: We evaluated 12,988 patients with stage III endometrial carcinoma, 39% of whom received EBRT plus BT. Women who received BT were more likely to have endocervical or cervical stromal involvement (odds ratios 2.03 and 1.77; P<.01, respectively). For patients receiving EBRT alone, the 5-year survival was 66% versus 69% with the addition of BT at 5 years (P<.01). Brachytherapy remained significantly predictive of decreased risk of death (hazard ratio 0.86; P<.01) on multivariate Cox regression. The addition of BT to EBRT did not affect survival among women without cervical involvement (P=.84). For women with endocervical or cervical stromal invasion, the addition of BT significantly improved survival (log–rank P<.01). Receipt of EBRT plus BT was associated with improved survival in women with positive and negative surgical margins, and receiving chemotherapy did not alter the benefit of BT. Propensity score–matched analysis results confirmed the benefit of BT among women with cervical involvement (hazard ratio 0.80; P=.01). Conclusions: In this population of women with stage III endometrial cancer the addition of BT to EBRT was associated with an improvement in survival for women with endocervical or cervical stromal invasion.

Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Evaluating Wetland Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary using Hydroacoustic Telemetry Arrays to Estimate Movement, Survival, and Residence Times of Juvenile Salmonids, Volume XXII (22).

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perry, Russell W.; Skalski, John R.

2008-08-01

Wetlands in the Columbia River estuary are actively being restored by reconnecting these habitats to the estuary, making more wetland habitats available to rearing and migrating juvenile salmon. Concurrently, thousands of acoustically tagged juvenile salmonids are released into the Columbia River to estimate their survival as they migrate through the estuary. Here, we develop a release-recapture model that makes use of these tagged fish to measure the success of wetland restoration projects in terms of their contribution to populations of juvenile salmon. Specifically, our model estimates the fraction of the population that enter the wetland, survival within the wetland, and the mean residence time of fish within the wetland. Furthermore, survival in mainstem Columbia River downstream of the wetland can be compared between fish that remained the mainstem and entered the wetland. These conditional survival estimates provide a means of testing whether the wetland improves the subsequent survival of juvenile salmon by fostering growth or improving their condition. Implementing such a study requires little additional cost because it takes advantage of fish already released to estimate survival through the estuary. Thus, such a study extracts the maximum information at minimum cost from research projects that typically cost millions of dollars annually.

VEGF improves survival of mesenchymal stem cells in infarcted hearts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pons, Jennifer; Huang Yu; Arakawa-Hoyt, Janice; Washko, Daniel; Takagawa, Junya; Ye, Jianqin; Grossman, William; Su Hua

2008-01-01

Bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) are a promising source for cell-based treatment of myocardial infarction (MI), but existing strategies are restricted by low cell survival and engraftment. We examined whether vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) improve MSC viability in infracted hearts. We found long-term culture increased MSC-cellular stress: expressing more cell cycle inhibitors, p16 INK , p21 and p19 ARF . VEGF treatment reduced cellular stress, increased pro-survival factors, phosphorylated-Akt and Bcl-xL expression and cell proliferation. Co-injection of MSCs with VEGF to MI hearts increased cell engraftment and resulted in better improvement of cardiac function than that injected with MSCs or VEGF alone. In conclusion, VEGF protects MSCs from culture-induce cellular stress and improves their viability in ischemic myocardium, which results in improvements of their therapeutic effect for the treatment of MI

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

Improved survival of colorectal cancer in Denmark during 2001-2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Lene Hjerrild; Green, Anders; Ingeholm, Peter

2016-01-01

cancer and 15 213 patients with rectal cancer were included. The stage distribution was almost stable over time. The mortality rate per 100 patient year within one year decreased from 32 to 26 in colon cancer and from 26 to 19 in rectal cancer with associated improvements in absolute survival from 73......% to 78% in colon cancer and from 78% to 83% in rectal cancer. The five-year relative survival of colon cancer improved from 58% to 63% and in rectal cancer from 59% to 65%. Comorbidity had major negative impact on outcome. Irrespective of tumor location, outcome improved relatively more in patients...... with stage III and IV disease. The proportion of patients who were spared surgery increased from 8% to 15% in colon cancer and from 13% to 19% in rectal cancer, and these changes were associated with improved outcome for rectal cancer patients, whereas outcome worsened for colon cancer patients. Conclusion...

Combining Gene Signatures Improves Prediction of Breast Cancer Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xi; Naume, Bjørn; Langerød, Anita; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Lingjærde, Ole Christian

2011-01-01

Background Several gene sets for prediction of breast cancer survival have been derived from whole-genome mRNA expression profiles. Here, we develop a statistical framework to explore whether combination of the information from such sets may improve prediction of recurrence and breast cancer specific death in early-stage breast cancers. Microarray data from two clinically similar cohorts of breast cancer patients are used as training (n = 123) and test set (n = 81), respectively. Gene sets from eleven previously published gene signatures are included in the study. Principal Findings To investigate the relationship between breast cancer survival and gene expression on a particular gene set, a Cox proportional hazards model is applied using partial likelihood regression with an L2 penalty to avoid overfitting and using cross-validation to determine the penalty weight. The fitted models are applied to an independent test set to obtain a predicted risk for each individual and each gene set. Hierarchical clustering of the test individuals on the basis of the vector of predicted risks results in two clusters with distinct clinical characteristics in terms of the distribution of molecular subtypes, ER, PR status, TP53 mutation status and histological grade category, and associated with significantly different survival probabilities (recurrence: p = 0.005; breast cancer death: p = 0.014). Finally, principal components analysis of the gene signatures is used to derive combined predictors used to fit a new Cox model. This model classifies test individuals into two risk groups with distinct survival characteristics (recurrence: p = 0.003; breast cancer death: p = 0.001). The latter classifier outperforms all the individual gene signatures, as well as Cox models based on traditional clinical parameters and the Adjuvant! Online for survival prediction. Conclusion Combining the predictive strength of multiple gene signatures improves prediction of breast

Combining gene signatures improves prediction of breast cancer survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xi Zhao

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several gene sets for prediction of breast cancer survival have been derived from whole-genome mRNA expression profiles. Here, we develop a statistical framework to explore whether combination of the information from such sets may improve prediction of recurrence and breast cancer specific death in early-stage breast cancers. Microarray data from two clinically similar cohorts of breast cancer patients are used as training (n = 123 and test set (n = 81, respectively. Gene sets from eleven previously published gene signatures are included in the study. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To investigate the relationship between breast cancer survival and gene expression on a particular gene set, a Cox proportional hazards model is applied using partial likelihood regression with an L2 penalty to avoid overfitting and using cross-validation to determine the penalty weight. The fitted models are applied to an independent test set to obtain a predicted risk for each individual and each gene set. Hierarchical clustering of the test individuals on the basis of the vector of predicted risks results in two clusters with distinct clinical characteristics in terms of the distribution of molecular subtypes, ER, PR status, TP53 mutation status and histological grade category, and associated with significantly different survival probabilities (recurrence: p = 0.005; breast cancer death: p = 0.014. Finally, principal components analysis of the gene signatures is used to derive combined predictors used to fit a new Cox model. This model classifies test individuals into two risk groups with distinct survival characteristics (recurrence: p = 0.003; breast cancer death: p = 0.001. The latter classifier outperforms all the individual gene signatures, as well as Cox models based on traditional clinical parameters and the Adjuvant! Online for survival prediction. CONCLUSION: Combining the predictive strength of multiple gene signatures improves

Cross-Validation of Survival Bump Hunting by Recursive Peeling Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J Sunil

2014-08-01

We introduce a survival/risk bump hunting framework to build a bump hunting model with a possibly censored time-to-event type of response and to validate model estimates. First, we describe the use of adequate survival peeling criteria to build a survival/risk bump hunting model based on recursive peeling methods. Our method called "Patient Recursive Survival Peeling" is a rule-induction method that makes use of specific peeling criteria such as hazard ratio or log-rank statistics. Second, to validate our model estimates and improve survival prediction accuracy, we describe a resampling-based validation technique specifically designed for the joint task of decision rule making by recursive peeling (i.e. decision-box) and survival estimation. This alternative technique, called "combined" cross-validation is done by combining test samples over the cross-validation loops, a design allowing for bump hunting by recursive peeling in a survival setting. We provide empirical results showing the importance of cross-validation and replication.

Cyber Foraging for Improving Survivability of Mobile Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2016-02-10

Cyber-Foraging for Improving Survivability of Mobile Systems Sebastián Echeverría ( Universidad de los Andes) Grace A. Lewis James Root Ben...NUMBERS FA8721-05-C-0003 6. AUTHOR(S) Sebastián Echeverría ( Universidad de los Andes), Grace A. Lewis, James Root, & Ben Bradshaw 7. PERFORMING

Estimating movement and survival rates of a small saltwater fish using autonomous antenna receiver arrays and passive integrated transponder tags

Science.gov (United States)

Rudershausen, Paul J.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Dubreuil, Todd; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Poland, Steven J.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the performance of small (12.5 mm long) passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and custom detection antennas for obtaining fine-scale movement and demographic data of mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus in a salt marsh creek. Apparent survival and detection probability were estimated using a Cormack Jolly Seber (CJS) model fitted to detection data collected by an array of 3 vertical antennas from November 2010 to March 2011 and by a single horizontal antenna from April to August 2011. Movement of mummichogs was monitored during the period when the array of vertical antennas was used. Antenna performance was examined in situ using tags placed in wooden dowels (drones) and in live mummichogs. Of the 44 tagged fish, 42 were resighted over the 9 mo monitoring period. The in situ detection probabilities of the drone and live mummichogs were high (~80-100%) when the ambient water depth was less than ~0.8 m. Upstream and downstream movement of mummichogs was related to hourly water depth and direction of tidal current in a way that maximized time periods over which mummichogs utilized the intertidal vegetated marsh. Apparent survival was lower during periods of colder water temperatures in December 2010 and early January 2011 (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.979) than during other periods of the study (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.992). During late fall and winter, temperature had a positive effect on the CJS detection probability of a tagged mummichog, likely due to greater fish activity over warmer periods. During the spring and summer, this pattern reversed possibly due to mummichogs having reduced activity during the hottest periods. This study demonstrates the utility of PIT tags and continuously operating autonomous detection systems for tracking fish at fine temporal scales, and improving estimates of demographic parameters in salt marsh creeks that are difficult or impractical to sample with active fishing gear.

Colonoscopic surveillance improves survival after colorectal cancer diagnosis in inflammatory bowel disease

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutgens, M. W. M. D.; Oldenburg, B.; Siersema, P. D.; van Bodegraven, A. A.; Dijkstra, G.; Hommes, D. W.; de Jong, D. J.; Stokkers, P. C. F.; van der Woude, C. J.; Vleggaar, F. P.

2009-01-01

Colonoscopic surveillance provides the best practical means for preventing colorectal cancer (CRC) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Strong evidence for improved survival from surveillance programmes is sparse. The aim of this study was to compare tumour stage and survival of IBD

Improving village poultry’s survival rate through community-based poultry health management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sodjinou, Epiphane; Henningsen, Arne; Koudande, Olorounto D.

Community-based poultry health management (CBM) is a strategy for village poultry improvement based on the installment of “poultry interest groups” in experimental villages. These groups serve as a channel for the dissemination of village poultry improvement technologies. The use of CBM is due...... to the fact that village poultry farming is practiced in a total or partial scavenging system which gives the impression that all the birds in the village belong to the same flock. Accordingly, actions that target all farmers of the same village may have a larger impact on the village poultry’s survival rate...... than actions that target individual producers. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of CBM on the survival rate of village poultry. Based on data collected on 353 poultry keepers, the study shows that CBM significantly improves the survival rate of village poultry. The adoption...

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1994 Annual Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muir, William D.

1995-02-01

In 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the second year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through the dams and reservoirs of the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected at selected locations above, at, and below Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release, Modified Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models.

Hydroxyapatite coating does not improve uncemented stem survival after total hip arthroplasty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hailer, N. P.; Lazarinis, S.; MaKela, K. T.

2015-01-01

Background and purpose - It is still being debated whether HA coating of uncemented stems used in total hip arthroplasty (THA) improves implant survival. We therefore investigated different uncemented stem brands, with and without HA coating, regarding early and long-term survival. Patients and m...

An Example of an Improvable Rao-Blackwell Improvement, Inefficient Maximum Likelihood Estimator, and Unbiased Generalized Bayes Estimator.

Science.gov (United States)

Galili, Tal; Meilijson, Isaac

2016-01-02

The Rao-Blackwell theorem offers a procedure for converting a crude unbiased estimator of a parameter θ into a "better" one, in fact unique and optimal if the improvement is based on a minimal sufficient statistic that is complete. In contrast, behind every minimal sufficient statistic that is not complete, there is an improvable Rao-Blackwell improvement. This is illustrated via a simple example based on the uniform distribution, in which a rather natural Rao-Blackwell improvement is uniformly improvable. Furthermore, in this example the maximum likelihood estimator is inefficient, and an unbiased generalized Bayes estimator performs exceptionally well. Counterexamples of this sort can be useful didactic tools for explaining the true nature of a methodology and possible consequences when some of the assumptions are violated. [Received December 2014. Revised September 2015.].

Survival probabilities of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta estimated from capture-mark-recapture data in the Mediterranean Sea

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Paolo Casale

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Survival probabilities of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta are estimated for the first time in the Mediterranean by analysing 3254 tagging and 134 re-encounter data from this region. Most of these turtles were juveniles found at sea. Re-encounters were live resightings and dead recoveries and data were analysed with Barker’s model, a modified version of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model which can combine recapture, live resighting and dead recovery data. An annual survival probability of 0.73 (CI 95% = 0.67-0.78; n=3254 was obtained, and should be considered as a conservative estimate due to an unknown, though not negligible, tag loss rate. This study makes a preliminary estimate of the survival probabilities of in-water developmental stages for the Mediterranean population of endangered loggerhead sea turtles and provides the first insights into the magnitude of the suspected human-induced mortality in the region. The model used here for the first time on sea turtles could be used to obtain survival estimates from other data sets with few or no true recaptures but with other types of re-encounter data, which are a common output of tagging programmes involving these wide-ranging animals.

Improved Estimates of Thermodynamic Parameters

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Lawson, D. D.

1982-01-01

Techniques refined for estimating heat of vaporization and other parameters from molecular structure. Using parabolic equation with three adjustable parameters, heat of vaporization can be used to estimate boiling point, and vice versa. Boiling points and vapor pressures for some nonpolar liquids were estimated by improved method and compared with previously reported values. Technique for estimating thermodynamic parameters should make it easier for engineers to choose among candidate heat-exchange fluids for thermochemical cycles.

Estimation of failure criteria in multivariate sensory shelf life testing using survival analysis.

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Giménez, Ana; Gagliardi, Andrés; Ares, Gastón

2017-09-01

For most food products, shelf life is determined by changes in their sensory characteristics. A predetermined increase or decrease in the intensity of a sensory characteristic has frequently been used to signal that a product has reached the end of its shelf life. Considering all attributes change simultaneously, the concept of multivariate shelf life allows a single measurement of deterioration that takes into account all these sensory changes at a certain storage time. The aim of the present work was to apply survival analysis to estimate failure criteria in multivariate sensory shelf life testing using two case studies, hamburger buns and orange juice, by modelling the relationship between consumers' rejection of the product and the deterioration index estimated using PCA. In both studies, a panel of 13 trained assessors evaluated the samples using descriptive analysis whereas a panel of 100 consumers answered a "yes" or "no" question regarding intention to buy or consume the product. PC1 explained the great majority of the variance, indicating all sensory characteristics evolved similarly with storage time. Thus, PC1 could be regarded as index of sensory deterioration and a single failure criterion could be estimated through survival analysis for 25 and 50% consumers' rejection. The proposed approach based on multivariate shelf life testing may increase the accuracy of shelf life estimations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addition of gemtuzumab ozogamicin to induction chemotherapy improves survival in older patients with acute myeloid leukemia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burnett, Alan K; Russell, Nigel H; Hills, Robert K

2012-01-01

PURPOSE There has been little survival improvement in older patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in the last two decades. Improving induction treatment may improve the rate and quality of remission and consequently survival. In our previous trial, in younger patients, we showed improved...

Direct Survival Analysis: a new stock assessment method

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Eduardo Ferrandis

2007-03-01

Full Text Available In this work, a new stock assessment method, Direct Survival Analysis, is proposed and described. The parameter estimation of the Weibull survival model proposed by Ferrandis (2007 is obtained using trawl survey data. This estimation is used to establish a baseline survival function, which is in turn used to estimate the specific survival functions in the different cohorts considered through an adaptation of the separable model of the fishing mortality rates introduced by Pope and Shepherd (1982. It is thus possible to test hypotheses on the evolution of survival during the period studied and to identify trends in recruitment. A link is established between the preceding analysis of trawl survey data and the commercial catch-at-age data that are generally obtained to evaluate the population using analytical models. The estimated baseline survival, with the proposed versions of the stock and catch equations and the adaptation of the Separable Model, may be applied to commercial catch-at-age data. This makes it possible to estimate the survival corresponding to the landing data, the initial size of the cohort and finally, an effective age of first capture, in order to complete the parameter model estimation and consequently the estimation of the whole survival and mortality, along with the reference parameters that are useful for management purposes. Alternatively, this estimation of an effective age of first capture may be obtained by adapting the demographic structure of trawl survey data to that of the commercial fleet through suitable selectivity models of the commercial gears. The complete model provides the evaluation of the stock at any age. The coherence (and hence the mutual “calibration” between the two kinds of information may be analysed and compared with results obtained by other methods, such as virtual population analysis (VPA, in order to improve the diagnosis of the state of exploitation of the population. The model may be

Intestine-specific overexpression of IL-10 improves survival in polymicrobial sepsis.

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Rajan, Saju; Vyas, Dinesh; Clark, Andrew T; Woolsey, Cheryl A; Clark, Jessica A; Hotchkiss, Richard S; Buchman, Timothy G; Coopersmith, Craig M

2008-04-01

Targeted IL-10 therapy improves survival in preclinical models of critical illness, and intestine-specific IL-10 decreases inflammation in models of chronic Inflammatory disease. We therefore sought to determine whether intestine-specific overexpression of IL-10 would improve survival in sepsis. Transgenic mice that overexpress IL-10 in their gut epithelium (Fabpi-IL-10 mice) and wild-type (WT) littermates (n = 127) were subjected to cecal ligation and puncture with a 27-gauge needle. The 7-day survival rate was 45% in transgenic animals and 30% in WT animals (P < or = 0.05). Systemic levels of IL-10 were undetectable in both groups of animals under basal conditions and were elevated to a similar degree in septic animals regardless of whether they expressed the transgene. Local parameter of injury, including gut epithelial apoptosis, intestinal permeability, peritoneal lavage cytokines, and stimulated cytokines from intraepithelial lymphocytes, were similar between transgenic and WT mice. However, in stimulated splenocytes, proinflammatory cytokines monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (189 +/- 43 vs. 40 +/- 8 pg/mL) and IL-6 (116 +/- 28 vs. 34 +/- 9 pg/mL) were lower in Fabpi-IL-10 mice than WT littermates despite the intestine-specific nature of the transgene (P < 0.05). Cytokine levels were similar in blood and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid between the 2 groups, as were circulating LPS levels. Transgenic mice also had lower white blood cell counts associated with lower absolute neutrophil counts (0.5 +/- 0.1 vs. 1.0 +/- 0.2 10(3)/mm3; P < 0.05). These results indicate that gut-specific overexpression of IL-10 improves survival in a murine model of sepsis, and interactions between the intestinal epithelium and the systemic immune system may play a role in conferring this survival advantage.

Improved survival after an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest using new guidelines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steinmetz, Jacob; Barnung, S.; Nielsen, S.L.

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: An out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is associated with a poor prognosis. We hypothesized that the implementations of 2005 European Resuscitation Council resuscitation guidelines were associated with improved 30-day survival after OHCA. METHODS: We prospectively recorded data on all....... Treatment after implementation was confirmed as a significant predictor of better 30-day survival in a logistic regression analysis. CONCLUSION: The implementation of new resuscitation guidelines was associated with improved 30-day survival after OHCA Udgivelsesdato: 2008/8...... patients with OHCA treated by the Mobile Emergency Care Unit of Copenhagen in two periods: 1 June 2004 until 31 August 2005 (before implementation) and 1 January 2006 until 31 March 2007 (after implementation), separated by a 4-month period in which the above-mentioned change took place. RESULTS: We found...

The Application of Extended Cox Proportional Hazard Method for Estimating Survival Time of Breast Cancer

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Husain, Hartina; Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Tahir, Sulaiha; Mukhlisin, Ahmad; Mirna Apriani, M.

2018-03-01

Breast cancer is one type of cancer that is the leading cause of death worldwide. This study aims to model the factors that affect the survival time and rate of cure of breast cancer patients. The extended cox model, which is a modification of the proportional hazard cox model in which the proportional hazard assumptions are not met, is used in this study. The maximum likelihood estimation approach is used to estimate the parameters of the model. This method is then applied to medical record data of breast cancer patient in 2011-2016, which is taken from Hasanuddin University Education Hospital. The results obtained indicate that the factors that affect the survival time of breast cancer patients are malignancy and leukocyte levels.

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zabel, Richard; Williams, John G.; Smith, Steven G. (Northwest and Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Fish Ecology Division, Seattle, WA)

2002-06-01

In 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the ninth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagged fish. We PIT tagged and released at Lower Granite Dam a total of 17,028 hatchery and 3,550 wild steelhead. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream of the hydropower system and sites within the hydropower system. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release Model. Primary research objectives in 2001 were to: (1) estimate reach and project survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2001 for PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures with a minimum of text. More details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited in the text. Results for summer-migrating chinook salmon will be reported separately.

Will Incremental Hemodialysis Preserve Residual Function and Improve Patient Survival?

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Davenport, Andrew

2015-01-01

The progressive loss of residual renal function in peritoneal dialysis patients is associated with increased mortality. It has been suggested that incremental dialysis may help preserve residual renal function and improve patient survival. Residual renal function depends upon both patient related and dialysis associated factors. Maintaining patients in an over-hydrated state may be associated with better preservation of residual renal function but any benefit comes with a significant risk of cardiovascular consequences. Notably, it is only observational studies that have reported an association between dialysis patient survival and residual renal function; causality has not been established for dialysis patient survival. The tenuous connections between residual renal function and outcomes and between incremental hemodialysis and residual renal function should temper our enthusiasm for interventions in this area. PMID:25385441

A Hyaluronan-Based Injectable Hydrogel Improves the Survival and Integration of Stem Cell Progeny following Transplantation

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Brian G. Ballios

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The utility of stem cells and their progeny in adult transplantation models has been limited by poor survival and integration. We designed an injectable and bioresorbable hydrogel blend of hyaluronan and methylcellulose (HAMC and tested it with two cell types in two animal models, thereby gaining an understanding of its general applicability for enhanced cell distribution, survival, integration, and functional repair relative to conventional cell delivery in saline. HAMC improves cell survival and integration of retinal stem cell (RSC-derived rods in the retina. The pro-survival mechanism of HAMC is ascribed to the interaction of the CD44 receptor with HA. Transient disruption of the retinal outer limiting membrane, combined with HAMC delivery, results in significantly improved rod survival and visual function. HAMC also improves the distribution, viability, and functional repair of neural stem and progenitor cells (NSCs. The HAMC delivery system improves cell transplantation efficacy in two CNS models, suggesting broad applicability.

A Decade of Never-smokers Among Lung Cancer Patients-Increasing Trend and Improved Survival.

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Toh, Chee-Keong; Ong, Whee-Sze; Lim, Wan-Teck; Tan, Daniel Shao-Weng; Ng, Quan-Sing; Kanesvaran, Ravindran; Seow, Wei-Jie; Ang, Mei-Kim; Tan, Eng-Huat

2018-03-17

It is not known whether clinicopathologic characteristics, treatment, and survival of never-smokers among lung cancer incident cases have changed over time. We assessed the trend and overall survival (OS) of these patients within our institution during a 10-year period. We reviewed 2 cohorts of non-small-cell lung cancer patients with a diagnosis from 1999 to 2002 and from 2008 to 2011. The patient characteristics and OS were compared by smoking status within each cohort and between the 2 cohorts over time. Of the 992 patients in the 1999-2002 cohort and the 1318 patients in the 2008-2011 cohort, 902 and 1272 had a known smoking status, respectively. The proportion of never-smokers increased from 31% in 1999-2002 to 48% in 2008-2011 (P never-, former-, and current-smokers have remained largely constant over time. A greater proportion of never-smokers had Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0 to 1 and adenocarcinoma. The median OS increased from 15.5 months in 1999-2002 to 24.9 months in 2008-2011 (P = .001) for never-smokers, 12.3 to 15.9 months (P = .150) for former-smokers, and 10.5 to 13.9 months (P = .011) for current-smokers. The larger survival improvement among never-smokers was likely accounted for by the larger increase in never-smokers who were treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors and pemetrexed over time. We found an increasing trend of never-smokers among incident lung cancer cases and improved survival for these patients during a 10-year period. The documentation of smoking status in any national cancer registry is vital to estimate the true incidence of lung cancer among never-smokers over time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increasing Winter Maximal Metabolic Rate Improves Intrawinter Survival in Small Birds.

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Petit, Magali; Clavijo-Baquet, Sabrina; Vézina, François

Small resident bird species living at northern latitudes increase their metabolism in winter, and this is widely assumed to improve their chances of survival. However, the relationship between winter metabolic performance and survival has yet to be demonstrated. Using capture-mark-recapture, we followed a population of free-living black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) over 3 yr and evaluated their survival probability within and among winters. We also measured the size-independent body mass (M s ), hematocrit (Hct), basal metabolic rate (BMR), and maximal thermogenic capacity (Msum) and investigated how these parameters influenced survival within and among winters. Results showed that survival probability was high and constant both within (0.92) and among (0.96) winters. They also showed that while M s , Hct, and BMR had no significant influence, survival was positively related to Msum-following a sigmoid relationship-within but not among winter. Birds expressing an Msum below 1.26 W (i.e., similar to summer levels) had a winter. Our data therefore suggest that black-capped chickadees that are either too slow or unable to adjust their phenotype from summer to winter have little chances of survival and thus that seasonal upregulation of metabolic performance is highly beneficial. This study is the first to document in an avian system the relationship between thermogenic capacity and winter survival, a proxy of fitness.

Improving Survival and Promoting Respiratory Motor Function After Cervical Spinal Cord Injury

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0378 TITLE: Improving Survival and Promoting Respiratory Motor Function After Cervical Spinal Cord Injury PRINCIPAL...TITLE AND SUBTITLE CordCorInjury 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Improvi g Survival and Promoting Respiratory Motor Function After Cervical Spinal Cord...care. However, despite these drastic interventions, the cervical injured patient is still susceptible to death due to respiratory complications

[Medulloblastoma: improved survival in recent decades. Unicentric experience].

Science.gov (United States)

Igual Estellés, Lucía; Berlanga Charriel, Pablo; Cañete Nieto, Adela

2017-01-01

The aim of the study is to analyse variations in the treatment of medulloblastoma, the most common childhood brain tumour, and its impact on survival over the past two decades, as well as its clinical and pathological features. Survival analysis of all patients under 14 years old diagnosed with medulloblastoma between January 1990 and December 2013 in a Paediatric Oncology Unit. Sixty-three patients were diagnosed and treated for medulloblastoma, with a median follow-up of 5.1 years (range 0.65-21.7 years). The overall survival (OS) at 3 and 5 years was 66±13% and 55±14%, respectively. The OS at 5 years was 44%±25% in patients diagnosed in the 1990's, showing an increase to 70%±23% (p=0.032) since 2000. Clinical prognosis factors were included in the logistic regression model: age (p=0.008), presence of metastases and/or residual tumour (p=0.007), and receiving chemotherapy with radiotherapy after surgery (p=0.008). Statistically significant differences were observed for all of them. In our institution there has been a significant increase in medulloblastoma survival in the last decades. Multivariate analysis showed that this improvement was not related to the date of diagnosis, but with the introduction of chemotherapy in adjuvant treatment. This study confirmed that clinical factors significantly associated with worse outcome were age and presence of metastases at diagnosis. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Rac1 selective activation improves retina ganglion cell survival and regeneration.

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Erika Lorenzetto

Full Text Available In adult mammals, after optic nerve injury, retinal ganglion cells (RGCs do not regenerate their axons and most of them die by apoptosis within a few days. Recently, several strategies that activate neuronal intracellular pathways were proposed to prevent such degenerative processes. The rho-related small GTPase Rac1 is part of a complex, still not fully understood, intracellular signaling network, mediating in neurons many effects, including axon growth and cell survival. However, its role in neuronal survival and regeneration in vivo has not yet been properly investigated. To address this point we intravitreally injected selective cell-penetrating Rac1 mutants after optic nerve crush and studied the effect on RGC survival and axonal regeneration. We injected two well-characterized L61 constitutively active Tat-Rac1 fusion protein mutants, in which a second F37A or Y40C mutation confers selectivity in downstream signaling pathways. Results showed that, 15 days after crush, both mutants were able to improve survival and to prevent dendrite degeneration, while the one harboring the F37A mutation also improved axonal regeneration. The treatment with F37A mutant for one month did not improve the axonal elongation respect to 15 days. Furthermore, we found an increase of Pak1 T212 phosphorylation and ERK1/2 expression in RGCs after F37A treatment, whereas ERK1/2 was more activated in glial cells after Y40C administration. Our data suggest that the selective activation of distinct Rac1-dependent pathways could represent a therapeutic strategy to counteract neuronal degenerative processes in the retina.

Improved survival for non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients in New South Wales, Australia

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O'Connell Dianne L

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We evaluated if the survival benefit of adding rituximab to standard chemotherapy for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL observed in clinical trials has been experienced by an Australian NHL patient population. Methods NHL cases diagnosed in 1985-2004 in New South Wales (NSW were followed-up to the end of 2004. Rituximab prescription data were obtained from Medicare Australia. Using a Poisson regression model adjusted for age group, sex, NHL subtype and time period (1990-1994, 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, we estimated excess risk of death after a diagnosis of NHL. To give context to the survival trend, trends in incidence and mortality were also estimated. Results Compared with 1990-1994, after adjusting for age, sex and NHL subtype the relative excess risk of death was significantly lower (p Conclusion It is likely that some benefit of adding rituximab to the standard chemotherapy for NHL has been experienced at the population level.

Survival of radio-marked mallard ducklings in northeastern California

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Mauser, D.M.; Jarvis, R.L.; Gilmer, D.S.

1994-01-01

Estimates of duckling survival are necessary to accurately assess recruitment of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), yet few reliable estimates exist. During 1988-90, we estimated survival rates for 127 radio-marked mallard ducklings from 64 broods on Lower Klamath National Wildlife Refuge, California. In 1988, we restricted the survival estimate to the first 10 days post-hatch (S = 0.18, SE = 0.07). Survival from hatching to 50 days was 0.37 (SE = 0.09) in 1989 and 0.34 (SE = 0.07) in 1990. Total brood loss differed among years (P < 0.05); 81.2% in 1988 (n = 16), 36.8% in 1989 (n = 19), and 37.5% in 1990 (n = 24). Ninety-three percent of mortality occurred during the first 10 days of life. We detected no differences in the proportion of radio-marked ducklings fledged from early-hatched versus late-hatched nests (P = 0.74). During 1989-90, 16 females appeared to lose their entire brood; however, 3 radio-marked ducklings from 2 of these broods were fledged by other brood hens. Of 29 radio-marked ducklings that reached 44 days of life, 6 (20.7%) joined other broods. Habitat enhancement is the key to improving duckling survival because the large number of predator species that consume ducklings makes predator control difficult.

Estimation of Unemployment Duration in Botoşani County Using Survival Analysis

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Darabă Gabriel

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we aim at estimating the unemployment duration in Botosani County in order tostudy the impact of individual characteristics (gender, age, place of residence, unemploymentbenefit, etc. on the length of unemployment spells. We use Cox regression model to measure theeffects of gender, age, residential environment, etc. on the hazard rate of leaving unemploymentandKaplan-Meier estimator to compare survival probabilities among different categories ofunemployed persons. The study is carried out on a sample of 200 unemployment spellsregisteredwith the Employment Agency of Botoşani County from January 2012 to December 2015. Theresults reveal that place of residence, unemployment benefit and unemployed category have asignificant impact on unemployment spells.

Survival and maturation rates of the African rodent Mastomys natalensis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sluydts, Vincent; Crespin, Laurent; Davis, Stephen

2008-01-01

the model fit. On the other hand we showed that maturation rates were correlated negatively with density the previous month and positively to cumulative rainfall over the past three months. Survival estimates of both adults and subadults varied seasonally, with higher estimates during the increase phase......Survival and maturation rates of female Mastomys natalensis were analysed based on a ten-year onthly capture-recapture data set. We investigated whether direct and delayed density dependent and independent (rainfall) variables accounted for the considerable variation in demographic traits....... It was estimated that seasonal and annual covariates accounted for respectively 29 and 26% of the total variation in maturation rates and respectively 17 and 11% of the variation in survival rates. Explaining the between-year differences in maturation rates with annual past rainfall or density did not improve...

Shifting paradigms in the estimation of survival for castration-resistant prostate cancer: A tertiary academic center experience.

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Afshar, Mehran; Evison, Felicity; James, Nicholas D; Patel, Prashant

2015-08-01

Castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) has retained a guarded prognosis, with historical survival estimates of 18 to 24 months. However, the landscape of available therapy has changed, and the emphasis has altered from supportive to active treatment. Few large series from real-world populations exist in the contemporary era with fully mature survival data to confirm the indication based on clinical trials that patients with CRPC are surviving far longer than the historical estimates. We aim to review a large patient cohort with CRPC and provide mature survival data. Using the electronic histopathology database at Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, UK, all prostate-specific antigentest results between April 2006 and September 2007 were extracted, and patients satisfying the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) definition of hormone failure were identified. Electronic records were reviewed and variables were collected, including survival, treatment, biochemistry, histopathology, and demographics. Probability of survival, and of developing metastasis or CRPC, was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. Patients were stratified into 3 groups, namely, D0--no metastasis at diagnosis but later appearance, D1--no metastasis at diagnosis or at last follow-up, and D2--metastasis at diagnosis. From 8,062 patient-prostate-specific antigen episodes, we identified 447 patients meeting the criteria. A notes review revealed 147 patients with CRPC. Median overall survival (OS) from diagnosis was 84.7 months (95% CI: 73-89), and 129 deaths had occurred (88%). Median OS from diagnosis for D0, D1, and D2 patients was 100.4, 180.1, and 58.9 months, respectively (Pdata benefit clinicians and patients in understanding prognosis and treatment choices. Importantly, our patients were diagnosed before the current wave of novel therapeutics for CRPC, so survival for men diagnosed today may be more than our findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lung cancer survival in Norway, 1997-2011: from nihilism to optimism.

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Nilssen, Yngvar; Strand, Trond Eirik; Fjellbirkeland, Lars; Bartnes, Kristian; Møller, Bjørn

2016-01-01

We examine changes in survival and patient-, tumour- and treatment-related factors among resected and nonresected lung cancer patients, and identify subgroups with the largest and smallest survival improvements.National population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway, Statistics Norway and the Norwegian Patient Register were linked for lung cancer patients diagnosed during 1997-2011. The 1- and 5-year relative survival were estimated, and Cox proportional hazard regression, adjusted for selected patient characteristics, was used to assess prognostic factors for survival in lung cancer patients overall and stratified by resection status.We identified 34 157 patients with lung cancer. The proportion of histological diagnoses accompanied by molecular genetics testing increased from 0% to 26%, while those accompanied by immunohistochemistry increased from 8% to 26%. The 1-year relative survival among nonresected and resected patients increased from 21.7% to 34.2% and 75.4% to 91.5%, respectively. The improved survival remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, stage and histology. The largest improvements in survival occurred among resected and adenocarcinoma patients, while patients ≥80 years experienced the smallest increase.Lung cancer survival has increased considerably in Norway. The explanation is probably multifactorial, including improved attitude towards diagnostic work-up and treatment, and more accurate diagnostic testing that allows for improved selection for resection and improved treatment options. Copyright ©ERS 2016.

How can survival processing improve memory encoding?

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Meng; Geng, Haiyan

2013-11-01

We investigated the psychological mechanism of survival processing advantage from the perspective of false memory in two experiments. Using a DRM paradigm in combination with analysis based on signal detection theory, we were able to separately examine participants' utilization of verbatim representation and gist representation. Specifically, in Experiment 1, participants rated semantically related words in a survival scenario for a survival condition but rated pleasantness of words in the same DRM lists for a non-survival control condition. The results showed that participants demonstrated more gist processing in the survival condition than in the pleasantness condition; however, the degree of item-specific processing in the two encoding conditions did not significantly differ. In Experiment 2, the control task was changed to a category rating task, in which participants were asked to make category ratings of words in the category lists. We found that the survival condition involved more item-specific processing than did the category condition, but we found no significant difference between the two encoding conditions at the level of gist processing. Overall, our study demonstrates that survival processing can simultaneously promote gist and item-specific representations. When the control tasks only promoted either item-specific representation or gist representation, memory advantages of survival processing occurred.

Probiotics improve survival of septic rats by suppressing conditioned pathogens in ascites

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Liu, Da-Quan; Gao, Qiao-Ying; Liu, Hong-Bin; Li, Dong-Hua; Wu, Shang-Wei

2013-01-01

AIM: To investigate the benefits of probiotics treatment in septic rats. METHODS: The septic rats were induced by cecal ligation and puncture. The animals of control, septic model and probiotics treated groups were treated with vehicle and mixed probiotics, respectively. The mixture of probiotics included Bifidobacterium longum, Lactobacillus bulgaricus and Streptococcus thermophilus. We observed the survival of septic rats using different amounts of mixed probiotics. We also detected the bacterial population in ascites and blood of experimental sepsis using cultivation and real-time polymerase chain reaction. The severity of mucosal inflammation in colonic tissues was determined. RESULTS: Probiotics treatment improved survival of the rats significantly and this effect was dose dependent. The survival rate was 30% for vehicle-treated septic model group. However, 1 and 1/4 doses of probiotics treatment increased survival rate significantly compared with septic model group (80% and 55% vs 30%, P probiotics treated group compared with septic model group (5.20 ± 0.57 vs 9.81 ± 0.67, P probiotics treated group compared with septic model group (33.3% vs 100.0%, P probiotics treated group were decreased significantly compared with that of septic model group (3.93 ± 0.73 vs 8.80 ± 0.83, P probiotics treatment, there was a decrease in the scores of inflammatory cell infiltration into the intestinal mucosa in septic animals (1.50 ± 0.25 vs 2.88 ± 0.14, P Probiotics improve survival of septic rats by suppressing these conditioned pathogens. PMID:23840152

Conditional Melanoma Cancer Survival in the United States

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Ray M. Merrill

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Beyond relative survival, which indicates the likelihood that patients will not die from causes associated with their cancer, conditional relative survival probabilities provide further useful prognostic information to cancer patients, tailored to the time already survived from diagnosis. This study presents conditional relative survival for melanoma patients in the United States, diagnosed during 2000–2008 and followed through 2012. Analyses are based on 62,803 male and 50,261 female cases in population-based cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute. Five-year relative survival estimates are presented for melanoma patients who have already survived one, two, three, four, or five years after the initial diagnosis. Five- and ten-year relative survival decreases with age, stage at diagnosis, and is lower among males, Blacks, and Hispanics. Five-year conditional relative survival improves with each year already survived. The potential for improvement in five-year conditional relative survival is greatest for older age, males, Blacks, Hispanics, and in later staged cases. For local disease, five-year conditional relative survival was significantly lower in ages greater than 65 years and in Blacks. It was significantly higher in females, non-Hispanics, and married individuals. Age had a greater inverse relationship with five-year survival in later staged disease. A similar result occurred for females and married individuals. In contrast, non-Hispanics had better five-year survival if diagnosed with local or regional disease, but not distant disease.

Survival analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Badwe, R.A.

1999-01-01

The primary endpoint in the majority of the studies has been either disease recurrence or death. This kind of analysis requires a special method since all patients in the study experience the endpoint. The standard method for estimating such survival distribution is Kaplan Meier method. The survival function is defined as the proportion of individuals who survive beyond certain time. Multi-variate comparison for survival has been carried out with Cox's proportional hazard model

 Higher Order Improvements for Approximate Estimators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Dennis; Salanié, Bernard

Many modern estimation methods in econometrics approximate an objective function, through simulation or discretization for instance. The resulting "approximate" estimator is often biased; and it always incurs an efficiency loss. We here propose three methods to improve the properties of such appr......Many modern estimation methods in econometrics approximate an objective function, through simulation or discretization for instance. The resulting "approximate" estimator is often biased; and it always incurs an efficiency loss. We here propose three methods to improve the properties...... of such approximate estimators at a low computational cost. The first two methods correct the objective function so as to remove the leading term of the bias due to the approximation. One variant provides an analytical bias adjustment, but it only works for estimators based on stochastic approximators......, such as simulation-based estimators. Our second bias correction is based on ideas from the resampling literature; it eliminates the leading bias term for non-stochastic as well as stochastic approximators. Finally, we propose an iterative procedure where we use Newton-Raphson (NR) iterations based on a much finer...

Modelling survival

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

2016-01-01

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test...

Survival prediction algorithms miss significant opportunities for improvement if used for case selection in trauma quality improvement programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Heim, Catherine; Cole, Elaine; West, Anita; Tai, Nigel; Brohi, Karim

2016-09-01

Quality improvement (QI) programs have shown to reduce preventable mortality in trauma care. Detailed review of all trauma deaths is a time and resource consuming process and calculated probability of survival (Ps) has been proposed as audit filter. Review is limited on deaths that were 'expected to survive'. However no Ps-based algorithm has been validated and no study has examined elements of preventability associated with deaths classified as 'expected'. The objective of this study was to examine whether trauma performance review can be streamlined using existing mortality prediction tools without missing important areas for improvement. We conducted a retrospective study of all trauma deaths reviewed by our trauma QI program. Deaths were classified into non-preventable, possibly preventable, probably preventable or preventable. Opportunities for improvement (OPIs) involve failure in the process of care and were classified into clinical and system deviations from standards of care. TRISS and PS were used for calculation of probability of survival. Peer-review charts were reviewed by a single investigator. Over 8 years, 626 patients were included. One third showed elements of preventability and 4% were preventable. Preventability occurred across the entire range of the calculated Ps band. Limiting review to unexpected deaths would have missed over 50% of all preventability issues and a third of preventable deaths. 37% of patients showed opportunities for improvement (OPIs). Neither TRISS nor PS allowed for reliable identification of OPIs and limiting peer-review to patients with unexpected deaths would have missed close to 60% of all issues in care. TRISS and PS fail to identify a significant proportion of avoidable deaths and miss important opportunities for process and system improvement. Based on this, all trauma deaths should be subjected to expert panel review in order to aim at a maximal output of performance improvement programs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier

Home visit program improves technique survival in peritoneal dialysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Martino, Francesca; Adıbelli, Z; Mason, G; Nayak, A; Ariyanon, W; Rettore, E; Crepaldi, Carlo; Rodighiero, Mariapia; Ronco, Claudio

2014-01-01

Peritoneal dialysis (PD) is a home therapy, and technique survival is related to the adherence to PD prescription at home. The presence of a home visit program could improve PD outcomes. We evaluated its effects on clinical outcome during 1 year of follow-up. This was a case-control study. The case group included all 96 patients who performed PD in our center on January 1, 2013, and who attended a home visit program; the control group included all 92 patients who performed PD on January 1, 2008. The home visit program consisted of several additional visits to reinforce patients' confidence in PD management in their own environment. Outcomes were defined as technique failure, peritonitis episode, and hospitalization. Clinical and dialysis features were evaluated for each patient. The case group was significantly older (p = 0.048), with a lower grade of autonomy (p = 0.033), but a better hemoglobin level (p = 0.02) than the control group. During the observational period, we had 11 episodes of technique failure. We found a significant reduction in the rate of technique failure in the case group (p = 0.004). Furthermore, survival analysis showed a significant extension of PD treatment in the patients supported by the home visit program (52 vs. 48.8 weeks, p = 0.018). We did not find any difference between the two groups in terms of peritonitis and hospitalization rate; however, trends toward a reduction of Gram-positive peritonitis rates as well as prevalence and duration of hospitalization related to PD problems were identified in the case group. The retrospective nature of the analysis was a limitation of this study. The home visit program improves the survival of PD patients and could reduce the rate of Gram-positive peritonitis and hospitalization. Video Journal Club "Cappuccino with Claudio Ronco" at http://www.karger.com/?doi=365168.

Improving Collective Estimations Using Resistance to Social Influence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Madirolas

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Groups can make precise collective estimations in cases like the weight of an object or the number of items in a volume. However, in others tasks, for example those requiring memory or mental calculation, subjects often give estimations with large deviations from factual values. Allowing members of the group to communicate their estimations has the additional perverse effect of shifting individual estimations even closer to the biased collective estimation. Here we show that this negative effect of social interactions can be turned into a method to improve collective estimations. We first obtained a statistical model of how humans change their estimation when receiving the estimates made by other individuals. We confirmed using existing experimental data its prediction that individuals use the weighted geometric mean of private and social estimations. We then used this result and the fact that each individual uses a different value of the social weight to devise a method that extracts the subgroups resisting social influence. We found that these subgroups of individuals resisting social influence can make very large improvements in group estimations. This is in contrast to methods using the confidence that each individual declares, for which we find no improvement in group estimations. Also, our proposed method does not need to use historical data to weight individuals by performance. These results show the benefits of using the individual characteristics of the members in a group to better extract collective wisdom.

Improving Collective Estimations Using Resistance to Social Influence.

Science.gov (United States)

Madirolas, Gabriel; de Polavieja, Gonzalo G

2015-11-01

Groups can make precise collective estimations in cases like the weight of an object or the number of items in a volume. However, in others tasks, for example those requiring memory or mental calculation, subjects often give estimations with large deviations from factual values. Allowing members of the group to communicate their estimations has the additional perverse effect of shifting individual estimations even closer to the biased collective estimation. Here we show that this negative effect of social interactions can be turned into a method to improve collective estimations. We first obtained a statistical model of how humans change their estimation when receiving the estimates made by other individuals. We confirmed using existing experimental data its prediction that individuals use the weighted geometric mean of private and social estimations. We then used this result and the fact that each individual uses a different value of the social weight to devise a method that extracts the subgroups resisting social influence. We found that these subgroups of individuals resisting social influence can make very large improvements in group estimations. This is in contrast to methods using the confidence that each individual declares, for which we find no improvement in group estimations. Also, our proposed method does not need to use historical data to weight individuals by performance. These results show the benefits of using the individual characteristics of the members in a group to better extract collective wisdom.

Capture-recapture abundance and survival estimates of three cetacean species in Icelandic coastal waters using trained scientist-volunteers

Science.gov (United States)

Bertulli, Chiara G.; Guéry, Loreleï; McGinty, Niall; Suzuki, Ailie; Brannan, Naomi; Marques, Tania; Rasmussen, Marianne H.; Gimenez, Olivier

2018-01-01

Knowledge of abundance and survival of humpback whales, white-beaked dolphins and minke whales are essential to manage and conserve these species in Icelandic coastal shelf waters. Our main goal was to test the feasibility of employing inexpensive research methods (data collected by trained-scientist volunteers onboard opportunistic vessels) to assess abundance and apparent survival. No previous studies in Iceland have investigated these two demographic parameters in these three cetacean species using open capture-recapture models accounting for imperfect and possibly heterogeneous detection. A transient effect was accounted for whenever required to estimate the population of resident individuals. Identification photographs were collected by scientist-trained volunteers for 7 years (2006-2013) from onboard commercial whale-watching vessels in the coastal waters of Faxaflói (southwest coast, 4400 km2) and Skjálfandi (northeast coast, 1100 km2), Iceland. We estimated an average abundance of 83 humpback whales (Mn; 95% confidence interval: 54-130) in Skjálfandi; 238 white-beaked dolphins (La; [163-321]) in Faxaflói; and 67 minke whales (Ba; [53-82]) in Faxaflói and 24 (14-31) in Skjálfandi. We also found that apparent survival was constant for all three species (Mn: 0.52 [0.41-0.63], La: 0.79 [0.64-0.88], Ba-Faxaflói: 0.80 [0.67-0.88], Ba-Skjálfandi: 0.96 [0.60-0.99]). Our results showed inter-annual variation in abundance estimates which were small for all species, and the presence of transience for minke whales. A significant increase in abundance during the study period was solely found in minke whale data from Skjálfandi. Humpback whales and white-beaked dolphins showed lower apparent survival rates compared to similar baleen whale and dolphin populations. Our results show data collected by trained-scientist volunteers can produce viable estimates of abundance and survival although bias in the methods we employed exist and need to be addressed. With the

Clustered survival data with left-truncation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eriksson, Frank; Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

2015-01-01

Left-truncation occurs frequently in survival studies, and it is well known how to deal with this for univariate survival times. However, there are few results on how to estimate dependence parameters and regression effects in semiparametric models for clustered survival data with delayed entry....... Surprisingly, existing methods only deal with special cases. In this paper, we clarify different kinds of left-truncation and suggest estimators for semiparametric survival models under specific truncation schemes. The large-sample properties of the estimators are established. Small-sample properties...

Opioid growth factor improves clinical benefit and survival in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jill P Smith

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Jill P Smith1, Sandra I Bingaman1, David T Mauger2, Harold H Harvey1, Laurence M Demers3, Ian S Zagon41Departments of Medicine, 2Public Health Sciences, 3Pathology, and 4Neurosciences and Anatomy, Pennsylvania State University, College of Medicine, Hershey Medical Center, Hershey, PA, USABackground: Advanced pancreatic cancer carries the poorest prognosis of all gastrointestinal malignancies. Once the tumor has spread beyond the margins of the pancreas, chemotherapy is the major treatment modality offered to patients; however, chemotherapy does not significantly improve survival.Objective: Opioid growth factor (OGF; [Met5]-enkephalin is a natural peptide that has been shown to inhibit growth of pancreatic cancer in cell culture and in nude mice. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of OGF biotherapy on subjects with advanced pancreatic cancer who failed chemotherapy.Methods: In a prospective phase II open-labeled clinical trial, 24 subjects who failed standard chemotherapy for advanced pancreatic cancer were treated weekly with OGF 250 μg/kg intravenously. Outcomes measured included clinical benefit, tumor response by radiographic imaging, quality of life, and survival.Results: Clinical benefit response was experienced by 53% of OGF-treated patients compared to historical controls of 23.8% and 4.8% for gemcitabine and 5-fluorouracil (5-FU, respectively. Of the subjects surviving more than eight weeks, 62% showed either a decrease or stabilization in tumor size by computed tomography. The median survival time for OGF-treated patients was three times that of untreated patients (65.5 versus 21 days, p < 0.001. No adverse effects on hematologic or chemistry parameters were noted, and quality of life surveys suggested improvement with OGF. Limitations: Measurements other than survival were not allowed in control patients, and clinical benefit comparisons were made to historical controls.Conclusion: OGF biotherapy improves the

Colonoscopic surveillance improves survival after colorectal cancer diagnosis in inflammatory bowel disease

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutgens, M. W. M. D.; Oldenburg, B.; Siersema, P. D.; van Bodegraven, A. A.; Dijkstra, G.; Hommes, D. W.; de Jong, D. J.; Stokkers, P. C. F.; van der Woude, C. J.; Vleggaar, F. P.

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: Colonoscopic surveillance provides the best practical means for preventing colorectal cancer (CRC) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Strong evidence for improved survival from surveillance programmes is sparse. METHOD: The aim of this study was to compare tumour stage and

An Improved Cluster Richness Estimator

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rozo, Eduardo; /Ohio State U.; Rykoff, Eli S.; /UC, Santa Barbara; Koester, Benjamin P.; /Chicago U. /KICP, Chicago; McKay, Timothy; /Michigan U.; Hao, Jiangang; /Michigan U.; Evrard, August; /Michigan U.; Wechsler, Risa H.; /SLAC; Hansen, Sarah; /Chicago U. /KICP, Chicago; Sheldon, Erin; /New York U.; Johnston, David; /Houston U.; Becker, Matthew R.; /Chicago U. /KICP, Chicago; Annis, James T.; /Fermilab; Bleem, Lindsey; /Chicago U.; Scranton, Ryan; /Pittsburgh U.

2009-08-03

Minimizing the scatter between cluster mass and accessible observables is an important goal for cluster cosmology. In this work, we introduce a new matched filter richness estimator, and test its performance using the maxBCG cluster catalog. Our new estimator significantly reduces the variance in the L{sub X}-richness relation, from {sigma}{sub lnL{sub X}}{sup 2} = (0.86 {+-} 0.02){sup 2} to {sigma}{sub lnL{sub X}}{sup 2} = (0.69 {+-} 0.02){sup 2}. Relative to the maxBCG richness estimate, it also removes the strong redshift dependence of the richness scaling relations, and is significantly more robust to photometric and redshift errors. These improvements are largely due to our more sophisticated treatment of galaxy color data. We also demonstrate the scatter in the L{sub X}-richness relation depends on the aperture used to estimate cluster richness, and introduce a novel approach for optimizing said aperture which can be easily generalized to other mass tracers.

Concurrent chemoradiotherapy improves survival outcome in muscle-invasive bladder cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byun, Sang Jun; Kim, Jin Hee; Oh, Young Kee; Kim, Byung Hoon

2015-01-01

To evaluate survival rates and prognostic factors related to treatment outcomes after bladder preserving therapy including transurethral resection of bladder tumor, radiotherapy (RT) with or without concurrent chemotherapy in bladder cancer with a curative intent. We retrospectively studied 50 bladder cancer patients treated with bladder-preserving therapy at Keimyung University Dongsan Medical Center from January 1999 to December 2010. Age ranged from 46 to 89 years (median, 71.5 years). Bladder cancer was the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage II, III, and IV in 9, 27, and 14 patients, respectively. Thirty patients were treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) and 20 patients with RT alone. Nine patients received chemotherapy prior to CCRT or RT alone. Radiation was delivered with a four-field box technique (median, 63 Gy; range, 48.6 to 70.2 Gy). The follow-up periods ranged from 2 to 169 months (median, 34 months). Thirty patients (60%) showed complete response and 13 (26%) a partial response. All patients could have their own bladder preserved. Five-year overall survival (OS) rate was 37.2%, and the 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 30.2%. In multivariate analysis, tumor grade and CCRT were statistically significant in OS. Tumor grade was a significant prognostic factor related to OS. CCRT is also considered to improve survival outcomes. Further multi-institutional studies are needed to elucidate the impact of RT in bladder cancer

Partitioning of excess mortality in population-based cancer patient survival studies using flexible parametric survival models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eloranta Sandra

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Relative survival is commonly used for studying survival of cancer patients as it captures both the direct and indirect contribution of a cancer diagnosis on mortality by comparing the observed survival of the patients to the expected survival in a comparable cancer-free population. However, existing methods do not allow estimation of the impact of isolated conditions (e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality on the total excess mortality. For this purpose we extend flexible parametric survival models for relative survival, which use restricted cubic splines for the baseline cumulative excess hazard and for any time-dependent effects. Methods In the extended model we partition the excess mortality associated with a diagnosis of cancer through estimating a separate baseline excess hazard function for the outcomes under investigation. This is done by incorporating mutually exclusive background mortality rates, stratified by the underlying causes of death reported in the Swedish population, and by introducing cause of death as a time-dependent effect in the extended model. This approach thereby enables modeling of temporal trends in e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality simultaneously. Furthermore, we illustrate how the results from the proposed model can be used to derive crude probabilities of death due to the component parts, i.e., probabilities estimated in the presence of competing causes of death. Results The method is illustrated with examples where the total excess mortality experienced by patients diagnosed with breast cancer is partitioned into excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality. Conclusions The proposed method can be used to simultaneously study disease patterns and temporal trends for various causes of cancer-consequent deaths. Such information should be of interest for patients and clinicians as one way of improving prognosis after cancer is

Using Survival Analysis to Evaluate Medical Equipment Battery Life.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuhajda, David

2016-01-01

As hospital medical device managers obtain more data, opportunities exist for using the data to improve medical device management, enhance patient safety, and evaluate costs of decisions. As a demonstration of the ability to use data analytics, this article applies survival analysis statistical techniques to assist in making decisions on medical equipment maintenance. The analysis was performed on a large amount of data related to failures of an infusion pump manufacturer's lithium battery and two aftermarket replacement lithium batteries from one hospital facility. The survival analysis resulted in statistical evidence showing that one of the third-party batteries had a lower survival curve than the infusion pump manufacturer's battery. This lower survival curve translates to a shorter expected life before replacement is needed. The data suggested that to limit unexpected failures, replacing batteries at a two-year interval, rather than the current industry recommendation of three years, may be warranted. For less than $5,400 in additional annual cost, the risk of unexpected battery failures can be reduced from an estimated 28% to an estimated 7%.

Updated estimates of survival and cost effectiveness for imatinib versus interferon-alpha plus low-dose cytarabine for newly diagnosed chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukaemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, Shelby D; Anstrom, Kevin J; Li, Yanhong; Schulman, Kevin A

2008-01-01

For trials in which participants are followed beyond the main study period to assess long-term outcomes, economic evaluations conducted using short-term data should be systematically updated to reflect new information. We used 60-month survival data from the IRIS (International Randomized study of Interferon vs STI571) trial to update previously published cost-effectiveness estimates, based on 19 months of follow-up, of imatinib versus interferon (IFN)-alpha plus low-dose cytarabine in patients with chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukaemia. For patients treated with imatinib, we used the 60-month data to calibrate the survival curves generated from the original cost-effectiveness model. We used historical data to model survival for patients randomized to IFNalpha. We updated costs for medical resources using 2006 Medicare reimbursement rates and applied average wholesale prices (AWPs) and wholesale acquisition costs (WACs) to study medications. Five-year survival for patients randomized to imatinib was better than predicted in the original model (89.4% vs 83.2%). We estimated remaining life expectancy with first-line imatinib to be 19.1 life-years (3.8 life-years over the original model) and 15.2 QALYs (3.1 QALYs over the original estimate). Estimates for IFNalpha remained at 9.1 life-years and 6.3 QALYs. When we applied AWPs to study medications, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were $US 51,800-57,500 per QALY. When we applied WACs, ICERs were $US 42,000-46,200 per QALY. Although the analysis revealed that the original survival estimates were conservative, the updated cost-effectiveness ratios were consistent with, or slightly higher than, the original estimates, depending on the method for assigning costs to study medications.

Conditional survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Michael Boe; Pedersen, Niels Tinggaard; Christensen, Bjarne E

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND: Prognosis of lymphoma patients is usually estimated at the time of diagnosis and the estimates are guided by the International Prognostic Index (IPI). However, conditional survival estimates are more informative clinically, as they consider those patients only who have already survive...... survival probability provides more accurate prognostic information than the conventional survival rate estimated from the time of diagnosis.......BACKGROUND: Prognosis of lymphoma patients is usually estimated at the time of diagnosis and the estimates are guided by the International Prognostic Index (IPI). However, conditional survival estimates are more informative clinically, as they consider those patients only who have already survived...... a period of time after treatment. Conditional survival data have not been reported for lymphoma patients. METHODS: Conditional survival was estimated for 1209 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) from the population-based LYFO registry of the Danish Lymphoma Group. The Kaplan-Meier method...

Conditional survival of cancer patients: an Australian perspective

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Yu Xue

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimated conditional survival for cancer patients diagnosed at different ages and disease stage provides important information for cancer patients and clinicians in planning follow-up, surveillance and ongoing management. Methods Using population-based cancer registry data for New South Wales Australia, we estimated conditional 5-year relative survival for 11 major cancers diagnosed 1972–2006 by time since diagnosis and age and stage at diagnosis. Results 193,182 cases were included, with the most common cancers being prostate (39,851, female breast (36,585 and colorectal (35,455. Five-year relative survival tended to increase with increasing years already survived and improvement was greatest for cancers with poor prognosis at diagnosis (lung or pancreas and for those with advanced stage or older age at diagnosis. After surviving 10 years, conditional 5-year survival was over 95% for 6 localised, 6 regional, 3 distant and 3 unknown stage cancers. For the remaining patient groups, conditional 5-year survival ranged from 74% (for distant stage bladder cancer to 94% (for 4 cancers at different stages, indicating that they continue to have excess mortality 10–15 years after diagnosis. Conclusion These data provide important information for cancer patients, based on age and stage at diagnosis, as they continue on their cancer journey. This information may also be used by clinicians as a tool to make more evidence-based decisions regarding follow-up, surveillance, or ongoing management according to patients' changing survival expectations over time.

Interact to survive: Phyllobacterium brassicacearum improves Arabidopsis tolerance to severe water deficit and growth recovery.

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Justine Bresson

Full Text Available Mutualistic bacteria can alter plant phenotypes and confer new abilities to plants. Some plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR are known to improve both plant growth and tolerance to multiple stresses, including drought, but reports on their effects on plant survival under severe water deficits are scarce. We investigated the effect of Phyllobacterium brassicacearum STM196 strain, a PGPR isolated from the rhizosphere of oilseed rape, on survival, growth and physiological responses of Arabidopsis thaliana to severe water deficits combining destructive and non-destructive high-throughput phenotyping. Soil inoculation with STM196 greatly increased the survival rate of A. thaliana under several scenarios of severe water deficit. Photosystem II efficiency, assessed at the whole-plant level by high-throughput fluorescence imaging (Fv/Fm, was related to the probability of survival and revealed that STM196 delayed plant mortality. Inoculated surviving plants tolerated more damages to the photosynthetic tissues through a delayed dehydration and a better tolerance to low water status. Importantly, STM196 allowed a better recovery of plant growth after rewatering and stressed plants reached a similar biomass at flowering than non-stressed plants. Our results highlight the importance of plant-bacteria interactions in plant responses to severe drought and provide a new avenue of investigations to improve drought tolerance in agriculture.

Improving Survival in Decompensated Cirrhosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amar Nath Mukerji

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Mortality in cirrhosis is consequent of decompensation, only treatment being timely liver transplantation. Organ allocation is prioritized for the sickest patients based on Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD score. In order to improve survival in patients with high MELD score it is imperative to preserve them in suitable condition till transplantation. Here we examine means to prolong life in high MELD score patients till a suitable liver is available. We specially emphasize protection of airways by avoidance of sedatives, avoidance of Bilevel Positive Airway Pressure, elective intubation in grade III or higher encephalopathy, maintaining a low threshold for intubation with lesser grades of encephalopathy when undergoing upper endoscopy or colonoscopy as pre transplant evaluation or transferring patient to a transplant center. Consider post-pyloric tube feeding in encephalopathy to maintain muscle mass and minimize risk of aspiration. In non intubated and well controlled encephalopathy, frequent physical mobility by active and passive exercises are recommended. When renal replacement therapy is needed, night-time Continuous Veno-Venous Hemodialysis may be useful in keeping the daytime free for mobility. Sparing and judicious use of steroids needs to be borne in mind in treatment of ARDS and acute hepatitis from alcohol or autoimmune process.

Improved linear least squares estimation using bounded data uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Ballal, Tarig

2015-04-01

This paper addresses the problemof linear least squares (LS) estimation of a vector x from linearly related observations. In spite of being unbiased, the original LS estimator suffers from high mean squared error, especially at low signal-to-noise ratios. The mean squared error (MSE) of the LS estimator can be improved by introducing some form of regularization based on certain constraints. We propose an improved LS (ILS) estimator that approximately minimizes the MSE, without imposing any constraints. To achieve this, we allow for perturbation in the measurement matrix. Then we utilize a bounded data uncertainty (BDU) framework to derive a simple iterative procedure to estimate the regularization parameter. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed BDU-ILS estimator is superior to the original LS estimator, and it converges to the best linear estimator, the linear-minimum-mean-squared error estimator (LMMSE), when the elements of x are statistically white.

Improved linear least squares estimation using bounded data uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Ballal, Tarig; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the problemof linear least squares (LS) estimation of a vector x from linearly related observations. In spite of being unbiased, the original LS estimator suffers from high mean squared error, especially at low signal-to-noise ratios. The mean squared error (MSE) of the LS estimator can be improved by introducing some form of regularization based on certain constraints. We propose an improved LS (ILS) estimator that approximately minimizes the MSE, without imposing any constraints. To achieve this, we allow for perturbation in the measurement matrix. Then we utilize a bounded data uncertainty (BDU) framework to derive a simple iterative procedure to estimate the regularization parameter. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed BDU-ILS estimator is superior to the original LS estimator, and it converges to the best linear estimator, the linear-minimum-mean-squared error estimator (LMMSE), when the elements of x are statistically white.

Estimating freshwater productivity, overwinter survival, and migration patterns of Klamath River Coho Salmon

Science.gov (United States)

Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Faukner, Jimmy; Soto, Toz

2018-01-01

An area of great importance to resource management and conservation biology in the Klamath Basin is balancing water usage against the life history requirements of threatened Coho Salmon. One tool for addressing this topic is a freshwater dynamics model to forecast Coho Salmon productivity based on environmental inputs. Constructing such a forecasting tool requires local data to quantify the unique life history processes of Coho Salmon inhabiting this region. Here, we describe analytical methods for estimating a series of sub-models, each capturing a different life history process, which will eventually be synchronized as part of a freshwater dynamics model for Klamath River Coho Salmon. Specifically, we draw upon extensive population monitoring data collected in the basin to estimate models of freshwater productivity, overwinter survival, and migration patterns. Our models of freshwater productivity indicated that high summer temperatures and high winter flows can both adversely affect smolt production and that such relationships are more likely in tributaries with naturally regulated flows due to substantial intraannual environmental variation. Our models of overwinter survival demonstrated extensive variability in survival among years, but not among rearing locations, and demonstrated that a substantial proportion (~ 20%) of age-0+ fish emigrate from some rearing sites in the winter. Our models of migration patterns indicated that many age-0+ fish redistribute in the basin during the summer and winter. Further, we observed that these redistributions can entail long migrations in the mainstem where environmental stressors likely play a role in cueing refuge entry. Finally, our models of migration patterns indicated that changes in discharge are important in cueing the seaward migration of smolts, but that the nature of this behavioral response can differ dramatically between tributaries with naturally and artificially regulated flows. Collectively, these analyses

Estimating tag loss of the Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, using a multi-state model

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Catherine Alyssa; McGowan, Conor P.; Grand, James B.; Smith, David

2012-01-01

The Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is a valuable resource along the Mid-Atlantic coast which has, in recent years, experienced new management paradigms due to increased concern about this species role in the environment. While current management actions are underway, many acknowledge the need for improved and updated parameter estimates to reduce the uncertainty within the management models. Specifically, updated and improved estimates of demographic parameters such as adult crab survival in the regional population of interest, Delaware Bay, could greatly enhance these models and improve management decisions. There is however, some concern that difficulties in tag resighting or complete loss of tags could be occurring. As apparent from the assumptions of a Jolly-Seber model, loss of tags can result in a biased estimate and underestimate a survival rate. Given that uncertainty, as a first step towards estimating an unbiased estimate of adult survival, we first took steps to estimate the rate of tag loss. Using data from a double tag mark-resight study conducted in Delaware Bay and Program MARK, we designed a multi-state model to allow for the estimation of mortality of each tag separately and simultaneously.

Multiple Imputation for Estimating the Risk of Developing Dementia and Its Impact on Survival

OpenAIRE

Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S.; Launer, Lenore J.

2010-01-01

Dementia, Alzheimer’s disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. I...

Vaccinia scars associated with improved survival among adults in rural Guinea-Bissau.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mette Lundsby Jensen

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In urban Guinea-Bissau, adults with a vaccinia scar had better survival but also a higher prevalence of HIV-2 infection. We therefore investigated the association between vaccinia scar and survival and HIV infection in a rural area of Guinea-Bissau. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In connection with a study of HIV in rural Guinea-Bissau, we assessed vaccinia and BCG scars in 193 HIV-1 or HIV-2 infected and 174 uninfected participants. Mortality was assessed after 2(1/2-3 years of follow-up. The analyses were adjusted for age, sex, village, and HIV status. The prevalence of vaccinia scar was associated with age, village, and HIV-2 status but not with sex and schooling. Compared with individuals without any scar, individuals with a vaccinia scar had better survival (mortality rate ratio (MR = 0.22 (95% CI 0.08-0.61, the MR being 0.19 (95% CI 0.06-0.57 for women and 0.40 (95% CI 0.04-3.74 for men. Estimates were similar for HIV-2 infected and HIV-1 and HIV-2 uninfected individuals. The HIV-2 prevalence was higher among individuals with a vaccinia scar compared to individuals without a vaccinia scar (RR = 1.57 (95% CI 1.02-2.36. CONCLUSION: The present study supports the hypothesis that vaccinia vaccination may have a non-specific beneficial effect on adult survival.

Improved survival for rectal cancer compared to colon cancer: the four cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchwald, Pamela; Hall, Claire; Davidson, Callum; Dixon, Liane; Dobbs, Bruce; Robinson, Bridget; Frizelle, Frank

2018-03-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. This study was undertaken to evaluate survival outcomes and changes of disease outcomes of CRC patients over the last decades. A retrospective analysis of CRC patients in Christchurch was performed in four patient cohorts at 5 yearly intervals; 1993-94, 1998-99, 2004-05 and 2009. Data on cancer location, stage, surgical and oncological treatment and survival were collected. Univariate, multivariate and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were performed. There were 1391 patients (355, 317, 419 and 300 per cohort), 1037 colon and 354 rectal cancers, respectively. For colon cancer, right-sided cancers appeared more common in later cohorts (P = 0.01). There was a significant decrease in the number of permanent stomas for colon cancer patients (P = 0.001). There was an analogous trend for rectal cancers (P = 0.075). More CRC patients with stage IV disease were treated surgically (P = 0.001) and colon cancer stages I and II tended to have increased survival if operated by a colorectal surgeon (P = 0.06). Oncology referrals have increased remarkably (P = 0.001). Overall 56% of patients were alive at 5 years however rectal cancer patients had significantly better 5-year survival than those with colon cancer (P rectal cancer patients have a better 5-year survival than colon cancer patients. The improved survival with early stage colon cancers operated on by specialist colorectal surgeons needs further exploration. © 2016 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Physical activity and survival in breast cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ammitzbøll, Gunn; Søgaard, Karen; Karlsen, Randi V

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: Knowledge about lifestyle factors possibly influencing survival after breast cancer (BC) is paramount. We examined associations between two types of postdiagnosis physical activity (PA) and overall survival after BC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used prospective data on 959 BC survivors from...... the Diet, Cancer, and Health cohort, all enrolled before diagnosis. Self-reported PA was measured as time per activity, and estimated metabolic equivalent task (MET)-hours per week were summed for each activity. We constructed measures for household, exercise, and total PA. The association between...... from all causes during the study period. In adjusted analyses, exercise PA above eight MET h/week compared to lower levels of activity was significantly associated with improved overall survival (HR, 0.68; confidence interval [CI]: 0.47-0.99). When comparing participation in exercise to non...

Combined treatment with atorvastatin and imipenem improves survival and vascular functions in mouse model of sepsis.

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Choudhury, Soumen; Kannan, Kandasamy; Pule Addison, M; Darzi, Sazad A; Singh, Vishakha; Singh, Thakur Uttam; Thangamalai, Ramasamy; Dash, Jeevan Ranjan; Parida, Subhashree; Debroy, Biplab; Paul, Avishek; Mishra, Santosh Kumar

2015-08-01

We have recently reported that pre-treatment, but not the post-treatment with atorvastatin showed survival benefit and improved hemodynamic functions in cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) model of sepsis in mice. Here we examined whether combined treatment with atorvastatin and imipenem after onset of sepsis can prolong survival and improve vascular functions. At 6 and 18h after sepsis induction, treatment with atorvastatin plus imipenem, atorvastatin or imipenem alone or placebo was initiated. Ex vivo experiments were done on mouse aorta to examine the vascular reactivity to nor-adrenaline and acetylcholine and mRNA expressions of α1D AR, GRK2 and eNOS. Atorvastatin plus imipenem extended the survival time to 56.00±4.62h from 20.00±1.66h observed in CLP mice. The survival time with atorvastatin or imipenem alone was 20.50±1.89h and 27.00±4.09h, respectively. The combined treatment reversed the hyporeactivity to nor-adrenaline through preservation of α1D AR mRNA/protein expression and reversal of α1D AR desensitization mediated by GRK2/Gβγ pathway. The treatment also restored endothelium-dependent relaxation to ACh through restoration of aortic eNOS mRNA expression and NO availability. In conclusion, combined treatment with atorvastatin and imipenem exhibited survival benefit and improved vascular functions in septic mice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Robust estimation of the expected survival probabilities from high-dimensional Cox models with biomarker-by-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nils Ternès

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Thanks to the advances in genomics and targeted treatments, more and more prediction models based on biomarkers are being developed to predict potential benefit from treatments in a randomized clinical trial. Despite the methodological framework for the development and validation of prediction models in a high-dimensional setting is getting more and more established, no clear guidance exists yet on how to estimate expected survival probabilities in a penalized model with biomarker-by-treatment interactions. Methods Based on a parsimonious biomarker selection in a penalized high-dimensional Cox model (lasso or adaptive lasso, we propose a unified framework to: estimate internally the predictive accuracy metrics of the developed model (using double cross-validation; estimate the individual survival probabilities at a given timepoint; construct confidence intervals thereof (analytical or bootstrap; and visualize them graphically (pointwise or smoothed with spline. We compared these strategies through a simulation study covering scenarios with or without biomarker effects. We applied the strategies to a large randomized phase III clinical trial that evaluated the effect of adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy in 1574 early breast cancer patients, for which the expression of 462 genes was measured. Results In our simulations, penalized regression models using the adaptive lasso estimated the survival probability of new patients with low bias and standard error; bootstrapped confidence intervals had empirical coverage probability close to the nominal level across very different scenarios. The double cross-validation performed on the training data set closely mimicked the predictive accuracy of the selected models in external validation data. We also propose a useful visual representation of the expected survival probabilities using splines. In the breast cancer trial, the adaptive lasso penalty selected a prediction model with 4

Valproic acid reduces hair loss and improves survival in patients receiving temozolomide-based radiation therapy for high-grade glioma.

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Watanabe, Shinichi; Kuwabara, Yui; Suehiro, Satoshi; Yamashita, Daisuke; Tanaka, Mamoru; Tanaka, Akihiro; Ohue, Shiro; Araki, Hiroaki

2017-03-01

Valproic acid (VPA), a histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor, is also used to manage seizures in glioblastoma patients. HDAC inhibitors can protect normal cells and tissues from the deleterious effects of radiotherapy, and VPA is reported to improve the survival of glioblastoma patients receiving chemoradiation therapy. VPA also promotes hair growth, and thus has the potential to reduce the radiotherapy side effect of hair loss while improving the survival of patients with glioblastoma. The purpose of this study was to determine whether VPA use during radiotherapy for high-grade glioma is associated with decreased side effects of radiotherapy and an improvement in overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Medical records of 112 patients with high-grade glioma were retrospectively reviewed. We grouped patients by VPA use or non-use during radiotherapy, and evaluated hair loss, OS, and PFS. The radiation dose and fractionation at the onset of hair loss were 4 Gy and two fractions higher, respectively, in the VPA group compared with the VPA non-use group (P hair loss and improvement in survival. Hair loss prevention benefits patients suffering from the deleterious effects of radiation.

Invited review: Improving neonatal survival in small ruminants: science into practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Dwyer, C M; Conington, J; Corbiere, F; Holmøy, I H; Muri, K; Nowak, R; Rooke, J; Vipond, J; Gautier, J-M

2016-03-01

Neonatal mortality in small ruminant livestock has remained stubbornly unchanging over the past 40 years, and represents a significant loss of farm income, contributes to wastage and affects animal welfare. Scientific knowledge about the biology of neonatal adaptation after birth has been accumulating but does not appear to have had an impact in improving survival. In this paper, we ask what might be the reasons for the lack of impact of the scientific studies of lamb and kid mortality, and suggest strategies to move forward. Biologically, it is clear that achieving a good intake of colostrum, as soon as possible after birth, is crucial for neonatal survival. This provides fuel for thermoregulation, passive immunological protection and is involved in the development of attachment between the ewe and lamb. The behaviour of the lamb in finding the udder and sucking rapidly after birth is a key component in ensuring sufficient colostrum is ingested. In experimental studies, the main risk factors for lamb mortality are low birthweight, particularly owing to poor maternal nutrition during gestation, birth difficulty, litter size and genetics, which can all be partly attributed to their effect on the speed with which the lamb reaches the udder and sucks. Similarly, on commercial farms, low birthweight and issues with sucking were identified as important contributors to mortality. In epidemiological studies, management factors such as providing assistance with difficult births, were found to be more important than risk factors associated with housing. Social science studies suggest that farmers generally have a positive attitude to improving neonatal mortality but may differ in beliefs about how this can be achieved, with some farmers believing they had no control over early lamb mortality. Facilitative approaches, where farmers and advisors work together to develop neonatal survival strategies, have been shown to be effective in achieving management goals, such as

On Improving Convergence Rates for Nonnegative Kernel Density Estimators

OpenAIRE

Terrell, George R.; Scott, David W.

1980-01-01

To improve the rate of decrease of integrated mean square error for nonparametric kernel density estimators beyond $0(n^{-\\frac{4}{5}}),$ we must relax the constraint that the density estimate be a bonafide density function, that is, be nonnegative and integrate to one. All current methods for kernel (and orthogonal series) estimators relax the nonnegativity constraint. In this paper we show how to achieve similar improvement by relaxing the integral constraint only. This is important in appl...

An enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay for estimating red cell survival of transfused red cells-validation using CR-51 labeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drew, H.; Kickler, T.; Smith, B.; LaFrance, N.

1984-01-01

The survival time of transfused red cells antigenically distinct from the recipient's red cells was determined using an indirect enzyme linked antiglobulin test. These results were then compared to those determined by Cr-51 labeling. Three patients with hypoproliferative anemias and one patient (2 studies) with traumatic hemolytic anemia caused by a prosthetic heart valve were studied. Survival times were performed by transfusing a 5cc aliquot of Cr-51 labeled cells along with the remaining unit. One hour post transfusion, a blood sample was drawn and used as the 100% value. Subsequent samples drawn over a 2-3 week period were then compared to the initial sample to determine percent survival for both methods. The ELISA method for measuring red cell survival in antigenically distinct cells is in close agreement with the Cr-51 method. Although CR-51 labeling is the accepted method for red cell survival determination the ELISA method can be used when radioisotopes are unavailable or contraindicated or when the decision to estimate red cell survival is made after transfusion

A Dependable Localization Algorithm for Survivable Belt-Type Sensor Networks.

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Zhu, Mingqiang; Song, Fei; Xu, Lei; Seo, Jung Taek; You, Ilsun

2017-11-29

As the key element, sensor networks are widely investigated by the Internet of Things (IoT) community. When massive numbers of devices are well connected, malicious attackers may deliberately propagate fake position information to confuse the ordinary users and lower the network survivability in belt-type situation. However, most existing positioning solutions only focus on the algorithm accuracy and do not consider any security aspects. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive scheme for node localization protection, which aims to improve the energy-efficient, reliability and accuracy. To handle the unbalanced resource consumption, a node deployment mechanism is presented to satisfy the energy balancing strategy in resource-constrained scenarios. According to cooperation localization theory and network connection property, the parameter estimation model is established. To achieve reliable estimations and eliminate large errors, an improved localization algorithm is created based on modified average hop distances. In order to further improve the algorithms, the node positioning accuracy is enhanced by using the steepest descent method. The experimental simulations illustrate the performance of new scheme can meet the previous targets. The results also demonstrate that it improves the belt-type sensor networks' survivability, in terms of anti-interference, network energy saving, etc.

Witnessed arrest, but not delayed bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation improves prehospital cardiac arrest survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Vukmir, R B

2004-05-01

This study correlated the effect of witnessing a cardiac arrest and instituting bystander CPR (ByCPR), as a secondary end point in a study evaluating the effect of bicarbonate on survival. This prospective, randomised, double blinded clinical intervention trial enrolled 874 prehospital cardiopulmonary arrest patients encountered in a prehospital urban, suburban, and rural regional emergency medical service (EMS) area. This group underwent conventional advanced cardiac life support intervention followed by empiric early administration of sodium bicarbonate (1 mEq/l), monitoring conventional resuscitation parameters. Survival was measured as presence of vital signs on emergency department (ED) arrival. Data were analysed using chi(2) with Pearson correlation and odds ratio where appropriate. The overall survival rate was 13.9% (110 of 792) of prehospital cardiac arrest patients. The mean (SD) time until provision of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ByCPR) by laymen was 2.08 (2.77) minutes, and basic life support (BLS) by emergency medical technicians was 6.62 (5.73) minutes. There was improved survival noted with witnessed cardiac arrest-a 2.2-fold increase in survival, 18.9% (76 of 402) versus 8.6% (27 of 315) compared with unwitnessed arrests (ptwo minutes (p = 0.3752). Survival after prehospital cardiac arrest is more likely when witnessed, but not necessarily when ByCPR was performed by laymen.

Improving estimation of flight altitude in wildlife telemetry studies

Science.gov (United States)

Poessel, Sharon; Duerr, Adam E.; Hall, Jonathan C.; Braham, Melissa A.; Katzner, Todd

2018-01-01

Altitude measurements from wildlife tracking devices, combined with elevation data, are commonly used to estimate the flight altitude of volant animals. However, these data often include measurement error. Understanding this error may improve estimation of flight altitude and benefit applied ecology.There are a number of different approaches that have been used to address this measurement error. These include filtering based on GPS data, filtering based on behaviour of the study species, and use of state-space models to correct measurement error. The effectiveness of these approaches is highly variable.Recent studies have based inference of flight altitude on misunderstandings about avian natural history and technical or analytical tools. In this Commentary, we discuss these misunderstandings and suggest alternative strategies both to resolve some of these issues and to improve estimation of flight altitude. These strategies also can be applied to other measures derived from telemetry data.Synthesis and applications. Our Commentary is intended to clarify and improve upon some of the assumptions made when estimating flight altitude and, more broadly, when using GPS telemetry data. We also suggest best practices for identifying flight behaviour, addressing GPS error, and using flight altitudes to estimate collision risk with anthropogenic structures. Addressing the issues we describe would help improve estimates of flight altitude and advance understanding of the treatment of error in wildlife telemetry studies.

Parasitic infection improves survival from septic peritonitis by enhancing mast cell responses to bacteria in mice.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel E Sutherland

Full Text Available Mammals are serially infected with a variety of microorganisms, including bacteria and parasites. Each infection reprograms the immune system's responses to re-exposure and potentially alters responses to first-time infection by different microorganisms. To examine whether infection with a metazoan parasite modulates host responses to subsequent bacterial infection, mice were infected with the hookworm-like intestinal nematode Nippostrongylus brasiliensis, followed in 2-4 weeks by peritoneal injection of the pathogenic bacterium Klebsiella pneumoniae. Survival from Klebsiella peritonitis two weeks after parasite infection was better in Nippostrongylus-infected animals than in unparasitized mice, with Nippostrongylus-infected mice having fewer peritoneal bacteria, more neutrophils, and higher levels of protective interleukin 6. The improved survival of Nippostrongylus-infected mice depends on IL-4 because the survival benefit is lost in mice lacking IL-4. Because mast cells protect mice from Klebsiella peritonitis, we examined responses in mast cell-deficient Kit(W-sh/Kit(W-sh mice, in which parasitosis failed to improve survival from Klebsiella peritonitis. However, adoptive transfer of cultured mast cells to Kit(W-sh/Kit(W-sh mice restored survival benefits of parasitosis. These results show that recent infection with Nippostrongylus brasiliensis protects mice from Klebsiella peritonitis by modulating mast cell contributions to host defense, and suggest more generally that parasitosis can yield survival advantages to a bacterially infected host.

Key factors influencing lung cancer survival in northern Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Mangone, Lucia; Minicozzi, Pamela; Vicentini, Massimo; Giacomin, Adriano; Caldarella, Adele; Cirilli, Claudia; Falcini, Fabio; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Sant, Milena

2013-06-01

Lung cancer is a major cause of cancer death worldwide. The aims of this study were to analyze presentation, treatment and survival for lung cancer in northern Italy, and identify factors influencing survival. A total of 1180 lung cancer cases diagnosed in four north Italian cancer registries (Biella, Modena, Reggio Emilia, Romagna) in 2003-2005 were analyzed. Information on morphology, stage, diagnostic examinations, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgical treatment was collected from clinical records. Three-year relative survival and relative excess risks of death were estimated. Overall, 10% of cases were stage I, 50% stage IV, and 12% stage unknown. Romagna - where sophisticated diagnostic examinations were performed more often - had proportionately more microscopically verified cases and resected cases than Biella. Romagna had also high proportions of cases given chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Three-year survival was 14%, range 10% (Biella) to 19% (Romagna); 69% for stage I, 3% for stage IV. Stage I survival was higher in Romagna (82%) than Reggio Emilia and Biella (60-61%) but for operated stage I cases, survival was similar (88%) in Romagna and Biella. The fully adjusted model showed a higher risk of death in Biella (1.23, 95%CI 1.02-1.48) than Modena (reference). Stage and surgery are key factors influencing survival. Centralizing lung cancer treatment to improve diagnostic work-up may improve outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvement in survival of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: An international collaborative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Amit, Moran; Yen, Tzu-Chen; Liao, Chun-Ta; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Agarwal, Jai Prakash; Kowalski, Luiz P; Ebrahimi, Ardalan; Clark, Jonathan R; Kreppel, Matthias; Zöller, Joachim; Fridman, Eran; Bolzoni, Villaret A; Shah, Jatin P; Binenbaum, Yoav; Patel, Snehal G; Gil, Ziv

2013-12-15

An association between the survival of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) and advancements in diagnosis and therapy has not been established. This was a retrospective, longitudinal, international, population-based study of 2738 patients who underwent resection of OCSCC during 2 different decades. Characteristics of patients from 7 international cancer centers who received treatment between 1990 and 2000 (group A; n = 735) were compared with patients who received treatment between 2001 and 2011 (group B; n = 2003). Patients in group B had more advanced tumors and tended to develop distant metastases more frequently than patients in group A (P = .005). More group B patients underwent selective neck dissection and received adjuvant radiotherapy (P < .001). Outcome analysis revealed a significant improvement in 5-year overall survival, from 59% for group A to 70% for group B (P < .001). There was also a significant improvement in disease-specific survival associated with operations performed before and after 2000 (from 69% to 81%, respectively; P < .001). Surgery after 2000, negative margins, adjuvant treatment, and early stage disease were independent predictors of a better outcome in multivariate analysis. The decade of treatment was an independent prognostic factor for cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio, 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.3-0.6). The survival rate of patients with OCSCC improved significantly during the past 2 decades despite older age, more advanced disease stage, and a higher rate of distant metastases. The current results suggest that the prognosis for patients with OCSCC has improved over time, presumably because of advances in imaging and therapy. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Improvement Schemes for Indoor Mobile Location Estimation: A Survey

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Jianga Shang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Location estimation is significant in mobile and ubiquitous computing systems. The complexity and smaller scale of the indoor environment impose a great impact on location estimation. The key of location estimation lies in the representation and fusion of uncertain information from multiple sources. The improvement of location estimation is a complicated and comprehensive issue. A lot of research has been done to address this issue. However, existing research typically focuses on certain aspects of the problem and specific methods. This paper reviews mainstream schemes on improving indoor location estimation from multiple levels and perspectives by combining existing works and our own working experiences. Initially, we analyze the error sources of common indoor localization techniques and provide a multilayered conceptual framework of improvement schemes for location estimation. This is followed by a discussion of probabilistic methods for location estimation, including Bayes filters, Kalman filters, extended Kalman filters, sigma-point Kalman filters, particle filters, and hidden Markov models. Then, we investigate the hybrid localization methods, including multimodal fingerprinting, triangulation fusing multiple measurements, combination of wireless positioning with pedestrian dead reckoning (PDR, and cooperative localization. Next, we focus on the location determination approaches that fuse spatial contexts, namely, map matching, landmark fusion, and spatial model-aided methods. Finally, we present the directions for future research.

Macrophages improve survival, proliferation and migration of engrafted myogenic precursor cells into MDX skeletal muscle.

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Pierre-François Lesault

Full Text Available Transplantation of muscle precursor cells is of therapeutic interest for focal skeletal muscular diseases. However, major limitations of cell transplantation are the poor survival, expansion and migration of the injected cells. The massive and early death of transplanted myoblasts is not fully understood although several mechanisms have been suggested. Various attempts have been made to improve their survival or migration. Taking into account that muscle regeneration is associated with the presence of macrophages, which are helpful in repairing the muscle by both cleansing the debris and deliver trophic cues to myoblasts in a sequential way, we attempted in the present work to improve myoblast transplantation by coinjecting macrophages. The present data showed that in the 5 days following the transplantation, macrophages efficiently improved: i myoblast survival by limiting their massive death, ii myoblast expansion within the tissue and iii myoblast migration in the dystrophic muscle. This was confirmed by in vitro analyses showing that macrophages stimulated myoblast adhesion and migration. As a result, myoblast contribution to regenerating host myofibres was increased by macrophages one month after transplantation. Altogether, these data demonstrate that macrophages are beneficial during the early steps of myoblast transplantation into skeletal muscle, showing that coinjecting these stromal cells may be used as a helper to improve the efficiency of parenchymal cell engraftment.

Ewe maternal behavior score to estimate lamb survival and performance during lactation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreia Barros de Moraes

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Mortality of perinatal lambs and low weight at weaning cause huge liabilities to farmers. Current study describes maternal-filial behavior and evaluates the use of maternal behavior score (MBS to estimate the behavior of ewes and lambs soon after birth, and correlate it with lamb mortality and performance during lactation. Thirty-seven Corriedale ewes were used in a completely randomized design. MBS was assessed up to 24 hours after birth, taking into consideration the distance of the ewe from the lamb at the approach of a person. Maternal behavior, placental weight, weight gain of the lambs until weaning and their survival rate were also evaluated until two hours after lambing. More than 90% of the ewes had adequate maternal behavior, with parental care, even though ewes were very sensitive to the presence of people. There was no significant correlation between MBS and maternal behavior, lamb mortality rate and live weight gain. Under these conditions, MBS was not a useful tool to estimate maternal behavior and performance of lambs.

Improved Differential Evolution Algorithm for Parameter Estimation to Improve the Production of Biochemical Pathway

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Chuii Khim Chong

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper introduces an improved Differential Evolution algorithm (IDE which aims at improving its performance in estimating the relevant parameters for metabolic pathway data to simulate glycolysis pathway for yeast. Metabolic pathway data are expected to be of significant help in the development of efficient tools in kinetic modeling and parameter estimation platforms. Many computation algorithms face obstacles due to the noisy data and difficulty of the system in estimating myriad of parameters, and require longer computational time to estimate the relevant parameters. The proposed algorithm (IDE in this paper is a hybrid of a Differential Evolution algorithm (DE and a Kalman Filter (KF. The outcome of IDE is proven to be superior than Genetic Algorithm (GA and DE. The results of IDE from experiments show estimated optimal kinetic parameters values, shorter computation time and increased accuracy for simulated results compared with other estimation algorithms

The impact of household wealth on child survival in Ghana.

Science.gov (United States)

Lartey, Stella T; Khanam, Rasheda; Takahashi, Shingo

2016-11-22

Improving child health is one of the major policy agendas for most of the governments, especially in the developing countries. These governments have been implementing various strategies such as improving healthcare financing, improving access to health, increasing educational level, and income level of the household to improve child health. Despite all these efforts, under-five and infant mortality rates remain high in many developing nations. Some previous studies examined how economic development or household's economic condition contributes to child survival in developing countries. In Ghana, the question as to what extent does economic circumstances of households reduces infant and child mortality still remain largely unanswered. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the extent to which wealth affects the survival of under-five children, using data from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of Ghana. In this study, we use four waves of data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of Ghana from 1993 to 2008. The DHS is a detailed data set that provides comprehensive information on households and their demographic characteristics in Ghana. Data was obtained by distributing questionnaires to women (from 6000 households) of reproductive age between 15 and 49 years, which asked, among other things, their birth history information. The Weibull hazard model with gamma frailty was used to estimate wealth effect, as well as the trend of wealth effect on child's survival probability. We find that household wealth status has a significant effect on the child survival in Ghana. A child is more likely to survive when he/she is from a household with high wealth status. Among other factors, birth spacing and parental education were found to be highly significant to increase a child's survival probability. Our findings offer plausible mechanisms for the association of household wealth and child survival. We therefore suggest that the Government of Ghana

Estimating survival of dental fillings on the basis of interval-censored data and multi-state models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Joly, Pierre; Gerds, Thomas A; Qvist, Vibeke

2012-01-01

We aim to compare the life expectancy of a filling in a primary tooth between two types of treatments. We define the probabilities that a dental filling survives without complication until the permanent tooth erupts from beneath (exfoliation). We relate the time to exfoliation of the tooth...... with all these particularities, we propose to use a parametric four-state model with three random effects to take into account the hierarchical cluster structure. For inference, right and interval censoring as well as left truncation have to be dealt with. With the proposed approach, we can conclude...... that the estimated probability that a filling survives without complication until exfoliation is larger for one treatment than for the other, for all ages of the child at the time of treatment....

Improving multisensor estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation via conditional bias-penalized optimal estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Beomgeun; Seo, Dong-Jun; Noh, Seong Jin; Prat, Olivier P.; Nelson, Brian R.

2018-01-01

A new technique for merging radar precipitation estimates and rain gauge data is developed and evaluated to improve multisensor quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), in particular, of heavy-to-extreme precipitation. Unlike the conventional cokriging methods which are susceptible to conditional bias (CB), the proposed technique, referred to herein as conditional bias-penalized cokriging (CBPCK), explicitly minimizes Type-II CB for improved quantitative estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation. CBPCK is a bivariate version of extended conditional bias-penalized kriging (ECBPK) developed for gauge-only analysis. To evaluate CBPCK, cross validation and visual examination are carried out using multi-year hourly radar and gauge data in the North Central Texas region in which CBPCK is compared with the variant of the ordinary cokriging (OCK) algorithm used operationally in the National Weather Service Multisensor Precipitation Estimator. The results show that CBPCK significantly reduces Type-II CB for estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation, and that the margin of improvement over OCK is larger in areas of higher fractional coverage (FC) of precipitation. When FC > 0.9 and hourly gauge precipitation is > 60 mm, the reduction in root mean squared error (RMSE) by CBPCK over radar-only (RO) is about 12 mm while the reduction in RMSE by OCK over RO is about 7 mm. CBPCK may be used in real-time analysis or in reanalysis of multisensor precipitation for which accurate estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation is of particular importance.

Improving evapotranspiration estimates in Mediterranean drylands

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morillas, Laura; Leuning, Ray; Villagarcia, Luis

2013-01-01

An adaptation of a simple model for evapotranspiration (E) estimations in drylands based on remotely sensed leaf area index and the Penman-Monteith equation (PML model) (Leuning et al., 2008) is presented. Three methods for improving the consideration of soil evaporation influence in total evapo-...

Introduction to SURPH.1 analysis of release-recapture data for survival studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, S.G.; Skalski, J.R.; Schlechte, J.W.; Hoffmann, A.; Cassen, V.

1994-12-01

Program SURPH is the culmination of several years of research to develop a comprehensive computer program to analyze survival studies of fish and wildlife populations. Development of this software was motivated by the advent of the PIT-tag (Passive Integrated Transponder) technology that permits the detection of salmonid smolt as they pass through hydroelectric facilities on the Snake and Columbia Rivers in the Pacific Northwest. Repeated detections of individually tagged smolt and analysis of their capture-histories permits estimates of downriver survival probabilities. Eventual installation of detection facilities at adult fish ladders will also permit estimation of ocean survival and upstream survival of returning salmon using the statistical methods incorporated in SURPH.1. However, the utility of SURPH.1 far exceeds solely the analysis of salmonid tagging studies. Release-recapture and radiotelemetry studies from a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic species have been analyzed using SURPH.1 to estimate discrete time survival probabilities and investigate survival relationships. The interactive computing environment of SURPH.1 was specifically developed to allow researchers to investigate the relationship between survival and capture processes and environmental, experimental and individual-based covariates. Program SURPH.1 represents a significant advancement in the ability of ecologists to investigate the interplay between morphologic, genetic, environmental and anthropogenic factors on the survival of wild species. It is hoped that this better understanding of risk factors affecting survival will lead to greater appreciation of the intricacies of nature and to improvements in the management of wild resources. This technical report is an introduction to SURPH.1 and provides a user guide for both the UNIX and MS-Windows reg-sign applications of the SURPH software

Improving the quality of adult mortality data collected in demographic surveys: validation study of a new siblings' survival questionnaire in Niakhar, Senegal.

Science.gov (United States)

Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Masquelier, Bruno; Kanté, Almamy Malick; Douillot, Laetitia; Duthé, Géraldine; Sokhna, Cheikh; Delaunay, Valérie

2014-05-01

In countries with limited vital registration, adult mortality is frequently estimated using siblings' survival histories (SSHs) collected during Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). These data are affected by reporting errors. We developed a new SSH questionnaire, the siblings' survival calendar (SSC). It incorporates supplementary interviewing techniques to limit omissions of siblings and uses an event history calendar to improve reports of dates and ages. We hypothesized that the SSC would improve the quality of adult mortality data. We conducted a retrospective validation study among the population of the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Senegal. We randomly assigned men and women aged 15-59 y to an interview with either the DHS questionnaire or the SSC. We compared SSHs collected in each group to prospective data on adult mortality collected in Niakhar. The SSC reduced respondents' tendency to round reports of dates and ages to the nearest multiple of five or ten ("heaping"). The SSC also had higher sensitivity in recording adult female deaths: among respondents whose sister(s) had died at an adult age in the past 15 y, 89.6% reported an adult female death during SSC interviews versus 75.6% in DHS interviews (p = 0.027). The specificity of the SSC was similar to that of the DHS questionnaire, i.e., it did not increase the number of false reports of deaths. However, the SSC did not improve the reporting of adult deaths among the brothers of respondents. Study limitations include sample selectivity, limited external validity, and multiple testing. The SSC has the potential to collect more accurate SSHs than the questionnaire used in DHS. Further research is needed to assess the effects of the SSC on estimates of adult mortality rates. Additional validation studies should be conducted in different social and epidemiological settings. Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN06849961

Value-based contracting innovated Medicare advantage healthcare delivery and improved survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Mandal, Aloke K; Tagomori, Gene K; Felix, Randell V; Howell, Scott C

2017-02-01

In Medicare Advantage (MA) with its CMS Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC) payment model, CMS reimburses private plans (Medicare Advantage Organizations [MAOs]) with prospective, monthly, health-based or risk-adjusted, capitated payments. The effect of this payment methodology on healthcare delivery remains debatable. How value-based contracting generates cost efficiencies and improves clinical outcomes in MA is studied. A difference in contracting arrangements between an MAO and 2 provider groups facilitated an intervention-control, preintervention-postintervention, difference-in-differences approach among statistically similar, elderly, community-dwelling MA enrollees within one metropolitan statistical area. Starting in 2009, for intervention-group MA enrollees, the MAO and a provider group agreed to full-risk capitation combined with a revenue gainshare. The gainshare was based on increases in the Risk Adjustment Factor (RAF), which modified the CMS-HCC payments. For the control group, the MAO continued to reimburse another provider group through fee-for-service. RAF, utilization, and survival were followed until December 31, 2012. The intervention group's mean RAF increased significantly (P based visits (P based care for these MA enrollees with multiple comorbidities, a 6% survival benefit with a 32.8% lower hazard of death (P Value-based contracting can drive utilization patterns and improve clinical outcomes among chronically ill, elderly MA members.

Nesting success and survival rates of suburban Olive Thrushes ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Reproductive rate, clutch size, nesting success and survival rate of dependent fledglings were estimated from breeding records in the Eastern Cape. These data were used to estimate survival rate of independent fledglings. The estimated adult survival rate in this region was high and the clutch size was small, compared to ...

Improved long-term survival after intra-operative single high-dose ATG-Fresenius induction in renal transplantation: a single centre experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaden, Jürgen; May, Gottfried; Völp, Andreas; Wesslau, Claus

2009-01-01

In organ grafts donor-specific sensitization is initiated immediately after revascularization. Therefore, in 1990 we introduced the intra-operative single high-dose ATG-Fresenius (ATG-F) induction in addition to standard triple drug therapy (TDT) consisting of steroids, azathioprine and cyclosporin. A total of 778 first renal transplantations from deceased donors, performed between 1987 and 1998, were included in this evaluation. This retrospective analysis of clinic records and electronic databases presents data of all recipients of first kidney grafts who received two different ATG-F inductions (1(st) group: 9 mg/kg body weight as single high-dose intra-operatively, n=484; 2(nd) group: 3 mg/kg body weight on 7 or 8 consecutive days as multiple-dose starting also intra-operatively, n=78) and standard TDT alone (3(rd) group: TDT alone, n=216). The 10-year patient survival rates were 72.6+/-2.6% (TDT + ATG-F single high-dose), 79.5+/-5.1% (TDT + ATG-F multiple-dose) and 67.2+/-3.7%% (TDT alone; Kaplan-Meier estimates with standard errors; ATG-F vs TDT alone, p=0.001). The 10-year graft survival rates with censoring of patients that died with a functioning graft were 73.8+/-2.4%, 57.7+/-5.8% and 58.4+/-3.6% (Kaplan-Meier estimates with standard errors; 1(st) vs 2(nd )and 3(rd) group, respectively, p<0.001) and the 10-year graft survival rates with patient death counted as graft failure were 58.3+/-2.7%, 55.7+/-5.8% and 48.2+/-3.5% (Kaplan-Meier estimates with standard errors; ATG-F single high-dose vs TDT, p=0.023). In pre-sensitized recipients there were also significant differences in favour of ATG-F, more notably in the single high-dose ATG-F induction. A total of 69% of the patients in the two cohorts receiving ATG-F did not experience any transplant rejections compared to 56% in patients undergoing TDT alone (p=0.018). The incidence of infectious complications was comparable across all groups. According to evidence obtained from the routine documentation of 778

Estimation of direct effects for survival data by using the Aalen additive hazards model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Gerster, Mette

2011-01-01

We extend the definition of the controlled direct effect of a point exposure on a survival outcome, other than through some given, time-fixed intermediate variable, to the additive hazard scale. We propose two-stage estimators for this effect when the exposure is dichotomous and randomly assigned...... Aalen's additive regression for the event time, given exposure, intermediate variable and confounders. The second stage involves applying Aalen's additive model, given the exposure alone, to a modified stochastic process (i.e. a modification of the observed counting process based on the first...

Improving photometric redshift estimation using GPZ: size information, post processing, and improved photometry

Science.gov (United States)

Gomes, Zahra; Jarvis, Matt J.; Almosallam, Ibrahim A.; Roberts, Stephen J.

2018-03-01

The next generation of large-scale imaging surveys (such as those conducted with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and Euclid) will require accurate photometric redshifts in order to optimally extract cosmological information. Gaussian Process for photometric redshift estimation (GPZ) is a promising new method that has been proven to provide efficient, accurate photometric redshift estimations with reliable variance predictions. In this paper, we investigate a number of methods for improving the photometric redshift estimations obtained using GPZ (but which are also applicable to others). We use spectroscopy from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly Data Release 2 with a limiting magnitude of r Program Data Release 1 and find that it produces significant improvements in accuracy, similar to the effect of including additional features.

Hydration measured by doubly labeled water in ALS and its effects on survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Scagnelli, Connor N; Howard, Diantha B; Bromberg, Mark B; Kasarskis, Edward J; Matthews, Dwight E; Mitsumoto, Hiroshi M; Simmons, Zachary; Tandan, Rup

2018-05-01

We present a study of hydration in ALS patients and its effects on survival. This was a multicenter study over 48 weeks in 80 ALS patients who underwent 250 individual measurements using doubly labeled water (DLW). Total body water (TBW) and water turnover (a surrogate for water intake) were 3.4% and 8.6% lower, respectively, in patients compared to age- and gender-matched healthy controls, and both significantly decreased over study duration. In 20% of patients, water turnover measured over 10 d was 2 standard deviations below the mean value in healthy controls. In a separate clinic cohort of 208 patients, water intake estimated from a de novo equation created from common clinical endpoints was a prognostic indicator of survival. Regardless of nutritional state assessed by BMI, survival was two-fold longer in the group above the median for estimated water intake, suggesting that hydration may be a more important predictor of survival than malnutrition. Risk factors for poor hydration were identified. Water intake equations recommended by US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in healthy elderly were inaccurate for use in ALS patients. We developed equations to estimate TBW and water intake in ALS patients for use in clinics to accurately estimate hydration and improve clinical care.

Erythropoietin improves the survival of fat tissue after its transplantation in nude mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamed, Saher; Egozi, Dana; Kruchevsky, Danny; Teot, Luc; Gilhar, Amos; Ullmann, Yehuda

2010-11-15

Autologous transplanted fat has a high resorption rate, providing a clinical challenge for the means to reduce it. Erythropoietin (EPO) has non-hematopoietic targets, and we hypothesized that EPO may improve long-term fat graft survival because it has both pro-angiogenic and anti-apoptotic properties. We aimed to determine the effect of EPO on the survival of human fat tissue after its transplantation in nude mice. Human fat tissue was injected subcutaneously into immunologically-compromised nude mice, and the grafts were then treated with either 20 IU or 100 IU EPO. At the end of the 15-week study period, the extent of angiogenesis, apoptosis, and histology were assessed in the fat grafts. The results were compared to vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-treated and phosphate-buffered saline (PBS)-treated fat grafts. The weight and volume of the EPO-treated grafts were higher than those of the PBS-treated grafts, whose weights and volumes were not different from those of the VEGF-treated grafts. EPO treatment also increased the expression of angiogenic factors and microvascular density, and reduced inflammation and apoptosis in a dose-dependent manner in the fat grafts. Our data suggest that stimulation of angiogenesis by a cluster of angiogenic factors and decreased fat cell apoptosis account for potential mechanisms that underlie the improved long-term survival of fat transplants following EPO treatment.

Estimating survival probabilities by exposure levels: utilizing vital statistics and complex survey data with mortality follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Landsman, V; Lou, W Y W; Graubard, B I

2015-05-20

We present a two-step approach for estimating hazard rates and, consequently, survival probabilities, by levels of general categorical exposure. The resulting estimator utilizes three sources of data: vital statistics data and census data are used at the first step to estimate the overall hazard rate for a given combination of gender and age group, and cohort data constructed from a nationally representative complex survey with linked mortality records, are used at the second step to divide the overall hazard rate by exposure levels. We present an explicit expression for the resulting estimator and consider two methods for variance estimation that account for complex multistage sample design: (1) the leaving-one-out jackknife method, and (2) the Taylor linearization method, which provides an analytic formula for the variance estimator. The methods are illustrated with smoking and all-cause mortality data from the US National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, and the proposed estimator is compared with a previously studied crude hazard rate estimator that uses survey data only. The advantages of a two-step approach and possible extensions of the proposed estimator are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Edaravone improves survival and neurological outcomes after CPR in a ventricular fibrillation model of rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Tao; Lei, Ling-Yan; Li, Nuo; Shi, Fangying Ruan; Chen, Meng-Hua; Xie, Lu

2016-10-01

Overproduction of free radicals is a main factor contributing to cerebral injury after cardiac arrest (CA)/cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). We sought to evaluate the impact of edaravone on the survival and neurological outcomes after CA/CPR in rats. Rats were subjected to CA following CPR. For survival study, the rats with restoration of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) were randomly allocated to one of the two groups (edaravone and saline group, n=20/each group) to received Edaravone (3 mg/kg) or normal saline. Another 10 rats without experiencing CA and CPR served as the sham group. Survival was observed for 72 hours and the neurological deficit score (NDS) was calculated at 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours after ROSC. For the neurological biochemical analysis study, rats were subjected to the same experimental procedures. Then, edaravone group (n=24), saline group (n=24) and sham group (n=16) were further divided into 4 subgroups according to the different time intervals (12, 24, 48, and 72 hours following ROSC). Brain tissues were harvested at relative time intervals for evaluation of oxidative stress, TUNEL staining and apoptotic gene expression. Edaravone improved postresuscitative survival time and neurological deficit, decreased brain malonylaldehyde level, increased superoxide dismutase activities, decreased proapoptotic gene expression of capase-8, capase-3, and Bax, and increased antiapoptotic Bcl-2 expression at 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours after ROSC. Edaravone improves survival and neurological outcomes following CPR via antioxidative and antiapoptotic effects in rats. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reducing macrophages to improve bone marrow stromal cell survival in the contused spinal cord.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ritfeld, G.J.; Nandoe Tewarie, R.D.S.; Rahiem, S.T.; Hurtado, A.; Roos, R.A.; Grotenhuis, A.; Oudega, M.

2010-01-01

We tested whether reducing macrophage infiltration would improve the survival of allogeneic bone marrow stromal cells (BMSC) transplanted in the contused adult rat thoracic spinal cord. Treatment with cyclosporine, minocycline, or methylprednisolone all resulted in a significant decrease in

Auto-SCT improves survival in systemic light chain amyloidosis: a retrospective analysis with 14-year follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Parmar, S; Kongtim, P; Champlin, R; Dinh, Y; Elgharably, Y; Wang, M; Bashir, Q; Shah, J J; Shah, N; Popat, U; Giralt, S A; Orlowski, R Z; Qazilbash, M H

2014-08-01

Optimal treatment approach continues to remain a challenge for systemic light chain amyloidosis (AL). So far, Auto-SCT is the only modality associated with long-term survival. However, failure to show survival benefit in randomized study raises questions regarding its efficacy. We present a comparative outcome analysis of Auto-SCT to conventional therapies (CTR) in AL patients treated over a 14-year period at our institution. Out of the 145 AL amyloidosis patients, Auto-SCT was performed in 80 patients with 1-year non-relapse mortality rate of 12.5%. Novel agents were used as part of induction therapy in 56% of transplant recipients vs 46% of CTR patients. Hematological and organ responses were seen in 74.6% and 39% in the Auto-SCT arm vs 53% and 12% in the CTR arm, respectively. The projected 5-year survival for Auto-SCT vs CTR was 63% vs 38%, respectively. Landmark analysis of patients alive at 1-year after diagnosis showed improved 5-year OS of 72% with Auto-SCT vs 65% in the CTR arm. In the multivariate analysis, age SCT were associated with improved survival. In conclusion, Auto-SCT is associated with long-term survival for patients with AL amyloidosis.

Hepatocyte nuclear factor 4A improves hepatic differentiation of immortalized adult human hepatocytes and improves liver function and survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Hang, Hua-Lian; Liu, Xin-Yu; Wang, Hai-Tian; Xu, Ning; Bian, Jian-Min; Zhang, Jian-Jun; Xia, Lei; Xia, Qiang

2017-11-15

Immortalized human hepatocytes (IHH) could provide an unlimited supply of hepatocytes, but insufficient differentiation and phenotypic instability restrict their clinical application. This study aimed to determine the role of hepatocyte nuclear factor 4A (HNF4A) in hepatic differentiation of IHH, and whether encapsulation of IHH overexpressing HNF4A could improve liver function and survival in rats with acute liver failure (ALF). Primary human hepatocytes were transduced with lentivirus-mediated catalytic subunit of human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT) to establish IHH. Cells were analyzed for telomerase activity, proliferative capacity, hepatocyte markers, and tumorigenicity (c-myc) expression. Hepatocyte markers, hepatocellular functions, and morphology were studied in the HNF4A-overexpressing IHH. Hepatocyte markers and karyotype analysis were completed in the primary hepatocytes using shRNA knockdown of HNF4A. Nuclear translocation of β-catenin was assessed. Rat models of ALF were treated with encapsulated IHH or HNF4A-overexpressing IHH. A HNF4A-positive IHH line was established, which was non-tumorigenic and conserved properties of primary hepatocytes. HNF4A overexpression significantly enhanced mRNA levels of genes related to hepatic differentiation in IHH. Urea levels were increased by the overexpression of HNF4A, as measured 24h after ammonium chloride addition, similar to that of primary hepatocytes. Chromosomal abnormalities were observed in primary hepatocytes transfected with HNF4A shRNA. HNF4α overexpression could significantly promote β-catenin activation. Transplantation of HNF4A overexpressing IHH resulted in better liver function and survival of rats with ALF compared with IHH. HNF4A improved hepatic differentiation of IHH. Transplantation of HNF4A-overexpressing IHH could improve the liver function and survival in a rat model of ALF. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival of fishes after impingement on traveling screens at Hudson River power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muessig, P.H.; Hutchison, J.B.; King, L.R.; Ligotino, R.J.; Daley, M.

1988-01-01

The survival of Hudson River fishes, juveniles and adults, after they had been impinged on continuously rotated traveling screens at the Bowline Point and Danskammer Point power plants was examined. Survival of principal species was similar at the two plants, and estimates of survival improved as monitoring stress was reduced. Adjusted for survival of control fish, survival over 84-108 h after fish were recovered from the screens was highest for Atlantic tomcod, striped bass, and white perch (50-90%) and lowest for bay anchovy, alewife, and blueback herring; other species showed intermediate survival. Survival of striped bass and white perch was positively correlated with water temperature in winter and with conductivity in spring and fall. Continual rotation of the screens, which shortens the average time that fish are impinged, increased survival over that associated with intermittent rotation. 24 refs., 9 figs., 4 tabs

Phosphodiesterase type 4 inhibitor rolipram improves survival of spiral ganglion neurons in vitro.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katharina Kranz

Full Text Available Sensorineural deafness is caused by damage of hair cells followed by degeneration of the spiral ganglion neurons and can be moderated by cochlear implants. However, the benefit of the cochlear implant depends on the excitability of the spiral ganglion neurons. Therefore, current research focuses on the identification of agents that will preserve their degeneration. In this project we investigated the neuroprotective effect of Rolipram as a promising agent to improve the viability of the auditory neurons. It is a pharmaceutical agent that acts by selective inhibition of the phosphodiesterase 4 leading to an increase in cyclic AMP. Different studies reported a neuroprotective effect of Rolipram. However, its significance for the survival of SGN has not been reported so far. Thus, we isolated spiral ganglion cells of neonatal rats for cultivation with different Rolipram concentrations and determined the neuronal survival rate. Furthermore, we examined immunocytologically distinct proteins that might be involved in the neuroprotective signalling pathway of Rolipram and determined endogenous BDNF by ELISA. When applied at a concentration of 0.1 nM, Rolipram improved the survival of SGN in vitro. According to previous studies, our immunocytological data showed that Rolipram application induces the phosphorylation and thereby activation of the transcription factor CREB. This activation can be mediated by the cAMP-PKA-signalling pathway as well as via ERK as a part of the MAP-kinase pathway. However, only in cultures pre-treated with BDNF, an endogenous increase of BDNF was detected. We conclude that Rolipram has the potential to improve the vitality of neonatal auditory nerve cells in vitro. Further investigations are necessary to prove the effect of Rolipram in vivo in the adult organism after lesion of the hair cells and insertion of cochlear implants.

Erythropoietin improves the survival of fat tissue after its transplantation in nude mice.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saher Hamed

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Autologous transplanted fat has a high resorption rate, providing a clinical challenge for the means to reduce it. Erythropoietin (EPO has non-hematopoietic targets, and we hypothesized that EPO may improve long-term fat graft survival because it has both pro-angiogenic and anti-apoptotic properties. We aimed to determine the effect of EPO on the survival of human fat tissue after its transplantation in nude mice. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Human fat tissue was injected subcutaneously into immunologically-compromised nude mice, and the grafts were then treated with either 20 IU or 100 IU EPO. At the end of the 15-week study period, the extent of angiogenesis, apoptosis, and histology were assessed in the fat grafts. The results were compared to vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF-treated and phosphate-buffered saline (PBS-treated fat grafts. The weight and volume of the EPO-treated grafts were higher than those of the PBS-treated grafts, whose weights and volumes were not different from those of the VEGF-treated grafts. EPO treatment also increased the expression of angiogenic factors and microvascular density, and reduced inflammation and apoptosis in a dose-dependent manner in the fat grafts. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our data suggest that stimulation of angiogenesis by a cluster of angiogenic factors and decreased fat cell apoptosis account for potential mechanisms that underlie the improved long-term survival of fat transplants following EPO treatment.

Pravastatin But Not Simvastatin Improves Survival and Neurofunctional Outcome After Cardiac Arrest and Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Bergt, MD

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Summary: Cardiac arrest (CA followed by cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR is associated with high mortality and poor neurological outcome. We compared the effects of pravastatin and simvastatin on survival and neurofunction in a murine model of CA/CPR. Pravastatin, a hydrophilic statin, increased survival and neurofunction during a 28-day follow-up period. This therapy was associated with improved pulmonary function, reduced pulmonary edema, and increased endothelial cell function in vitro. In contrast, lipophilic simvastatin did not modulate survival but increased pulmonary edema and impaired endothelial cell function. Although pravastatin may display a therapeutic option for post-CA syndrome, the application of simvastatin may require re-evaluation. Key Words: cardiac arrest, endothelial cell function, ischemia and reperfusion injury, pravastatin, resuscitation, simvastatin

Survival of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Passing the Bonneville Dam Spillway in 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ploskey, Gene R.; Weiland, Mark A.; Hughes, James S.; Zimmerman, Shon A.; Durham, Robin E.; Fischer, Eric S.; Kim, Jina; Townsend, R. L.; Skalski, J. R.; Buchanan, Rebecca A.; McComas, Roy L.

2008-12-01

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (CENWP) funds numerous evaluations of fish passage and survival on the Columbia River. In 2007, the CENWP asked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to conduct an acoustic telemetry study to estimate the survival of juvenile Chinook salmon passing the spillway at Bonneville Dam. This report documents the study results which are intended to be used to improve the conditions juvenile anadromous fish experience when passing through the dams that the Corps operates on the river.

Suspension Matrices for Improved Schwann-Cell Survival after Implantation into the Injured Rat Spinal Cord

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Vivek; Joseph, Gravil; Patel, Amit; Patel, Samik; Bustin, Devin; Mawson, David; Tuesta, Luis M.; Puentes, Rocio; Ghosh, Mousumi

2010-01-01

Abstract Trauma to the spinal cord produces endogenously irreversible tissue and functional loss, requiring the application of therapeutic approaches to achieve meaningful restoration. Cellular strategies, in particular Schwann-cell implantation, have shown promise in overcoming many of the obstacles facing successful repair of the injured spinal cord. Here, we show that the implantation of Schwann cells as cell suspensions with in-situ gelling laminin:collagen matrices after spinal-cord contusion significantly enhances long-term cell survival but not proliferation, as well as improves graft vascularization and the degree of axonal in-growth over the standard implantation vehicle, minimal media. The use of a matrix to suspend cells prior to implantation should be an important consideration for achieving improved survival and effectiveness of cellular therapies for future clinical application. PMID:20144012

Community-Based Multidisciplinary Computed Tomography Screening Program Improves Lung Cancer Survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Daniel L; Mayfield, William R; Luu, Theresa D; Helms, Gerald A; Muster, Alan R; Beckler, Vickie J; Cann, Aaron

2016-05-01

cancer specific survival was 71% in the screened patients, whereas nonscreened lung cancer patients during that time in WHS had an overall survival of only 19% (p < 0.001). A community-based multidisciplinary lung cancer screening program can improve survival of patients with lung cancer outside of a large multicenter study. This survival advantage was caused by a significant stage shift to earlier disease. Lung cancer CT screening may also benefit patients not meeting the National Lung Screening Trial criteria who are at moderate or high risk for lung cancer. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

2017-12-01

The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

How social information can improve estimation accuracy in human groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Jayles, Bertrand; Kim, Hye-Rin; Escobedo, Ramón; Cezera, Stéphane; Blanchet, Adrien; Kameda, Tatsuya; Sire, Clément; Theraulaz, Guy

2017-11-21

In our digital and connected societies, the development of social networks, online shopping, and reputation systems raises the questions of how individuals use social information and how it affects their decisions. We report experiments performed in France and Japan, in which subjects could update their estimates after having received information from other subjects. We measure and model the impact of this social information at individual and collective scales. We observe and justify that, when individuals have little prior knowledge about a quantity, the distribution of the logarithm of their estimates is close to a Cauchy distribution. We find that social influence helps the group improve its properly defined collective accuracy. We quantify the improvement of the group estimation when additional controlled and reliable information is provided, unbeknownst to the subjects. We show that subjects' sensitivity to social influence permits us to define five robust behavioral traits and increases with the difference between personal and group estimates. We then use our data to build and calibrate a model of collective estimation to analyze the impact on the group performance of the quantity and quality of information received by individuals. The model quantitatively reproduces the distributions of estimates and the improvement of collective performance and accuracy observed in our experiments. Finally, our model predicts that providing a moderate amount of incorrect information to individuals can counterbalance the human cognitive bias to systematically underestimate quantities and thereby improve collective performance. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Adjuvant Autologous Melanoma Vaccine for Macroscopic Stage III Disease: Survival, Biomarkers, and Improved Response to CTLA-4 Blockade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michal Lotem

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background. There is not yet an agreed adjuvant treatment for melanoma patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer stages III B and C. We report administration of an autologous melanoma vaccine to prevent disease recurrence. Patients and Methods. 126 patients received eight doses of irradiated autologous melanoma cells conjugated to dinitrophenyl and mixed with BCG. Delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH response to unmodified melanoma cells was determined on the vaccine days 5 and 8. Gene expression analysis was performed on 35 tumors from patients with good or poor survival. Results. Median overall survival was 88 months with a 5-year survival of 54%. Patients attaining a strong DTH response had a significantly better (p=0.0001 5-year overall survival of 75% compared with 44% in patients without a strong response. Gene expression array linked a 50-gene signature to prognosis, including a cluster of four cancer testis antigens: CTAG2 (NY-ESO-2, MAGEA1, SSX1, and SSX4. Thirty-five patients, who received an autologous vaccine, followed by ipilimumab for progressive disease, had a significantly improved 3-year survival of 46% compared with 19% in nonvaccinated patients treated with ipilimumab alone (p=0.007. Conclusion. Improved survival in patients attaining a strong DTH and increased response rate with subsequent ipilimumab suggests that the autologous vaccine confers protective immunity.

Implantable cardioverter-defibrillators improve survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with severely impaired left ventricular function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pasque Michael K

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Objective Patients with severe left ventricular (LV dysfunction have a poor long term survival despite complete surgical revascularization. Recent data suggests that the use of Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator (ICD improves survival in patients with severe LV dysfunction. We compared the survival impact of ICD implantation in patients with severe LV dysfunction who underwent CABG. Methods Between January 1996 and August 2004, 305 patients with LV ejection fraction (EF ≤25% had CABG surgery at our institution. Demographics of patients who had received an ICD (ICD+ in the post -operative period was compared to those without ICD (ICD-. Survival was evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results Of the entire group, 35 (11.5% patients received an ICD with a median of 2 (+/-2 years after CABG. Indication for ICD implantation was clinical evidence of non sustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT. There were no differences between the 2 groups with respect to age, gender, NYHA classification, number of bypasses, or other co-morbidities. Survival at 1, 3 and 5 years was 88%, 79%, and 67% for the ICD- group compared to 94%, 89% and 83% for the ICD+ group, respectively (figure, p Conclusion Implantation of ICD after CABG confers improved short and long term survival benefit to patients with severe LV dysfunction. Prophylactic ICD implantation in the setting of severe LV dysfunction and CABG surgery should be considered.

Myosin light chain kinase knockout improves gut barrier function and confers a survival advantage in polymicrobial sepsis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorentz, C Adam; Liang, Zhe; Meng, Mei; Chen, Ching-Wen; Yoseph, Benyam P; Breed, Elise R; Mittal, Rohit; Klingensmith, Nathan J; Farris, Alton B; Burd, Eileen M; Koval, Michael; Ford, Mandy L; Coopersmith, Craig M

2017-06-07

Sepsis-induced intestinal hyperpermeability is mediated by disruption of the epithelial tight junction, which is closely associated with the peri-junctional actin-myosin ring. Myosin light chain kinase (MLCK) phosphorylates the myosin regulatory light chain, resulting in increased permeability. The purpose of this study was to determine whether genetic deletion of MLCK would alter gut barrier function and survival from sepsis. MLCK -/- and wild type (WT) mice were subjected to cecal ligation and puncture and assayed for both survival and mechanistic studies. Survival was significantly increased in MLCK -/- mice (95% vs. 24%, p<0.0001). Intestinal permeability increased in septic WT mice compared to unmanipulated mice. In contrast, permeability in septic MLCK -/- mice was similar to that seen in unmanipulated animals. Improved gut barrier function in MLCK -/- mice was associated with increases in the tight junction mediators ZO-1 and claudin 15 without alterations in claudin 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 13, occludin or JAM-A. Other components of intestinal integrity (apoptosis, proliferation and villus length) were unaffected by MLCK deletion as were local peritoneal inflammation and distant lung injury. Systemic IL-10 was decreased greater than 10-fold in MLCK -/- mice; however, survival was similar between septic MLCK -/- mice given exogenous IL-10 or vehicle. These data demonstrate that deletion of MLCK improves survival following sepsis, associated with normalization of intestinal permeability and selected tight junction proteins.

[Prognostic estimation in critical patients. Validation of a new and very simple system of prognostic estimation of survival in an intensive care unit].

Science.gov (United States)

Abizanda, R; Padron, A; Vidal, B; Mas, S; Belenguer, A; Madero, J; Heras, A

2006-04-01

To make the validation of a new system of prognostic estimation of survival in critical patients (EPEC) seen in a multidisciplinar Intensive care unit (ICU). Prospective analysis of a patient cohort seen in the ICU of a multidisciplinar Intensive Medicine Service of a reference teaching hospital with 19 beds. Four hundred eighty four patients admitted consecutively over 6 months in 2003. Data collection of a basic minimum data set that includes patient identification data (gender, age), reason for admission and their origin, prognostic estimation of survival by EPEC, MPM II 0 and SAPS II (the latter two considered as gold standard). Mortality was evaluated on hospital discharge. EPEC validation was done with analysis of its discriminating capacity (ROC curve), calibration of its prognostic capacity (Hosmer Lemeshow C test), resolution of the 2 x 2 Contingency tables around different probability values (20, 50, 70 and mean value of prognostic estimation). The standardized mortality rate (SMR) for each one of the methods was calculated. Linear regression of the EPEC regarding the MPM II 0 and SAPS II was established and concordance analyses were done (Bland-Altman test) of the prediction of mortality by the three systems. In spite of an apparently good linear correlation, similar accuracy of prediction and discrimination capacity, EPEC is not well-calibrated (no likelihood of death greater than 50%) and the concordance analyses show that more than 10% of the pairs were outside the 95% confidence interval. In spite of its ease of application and calculation and of incorporating delay of admission in ICU as a variable, EPEC does not offer any predictive advantage on MPM II 0 or SAPS II, and its predictions adapt to reality worse.

ASURV: Astronomical SURVival Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Feigelson, E. D.; Nelson, P. I.; Isobe, T.; LaValley, M.

2014-06-01

ASURV (Astronomical SURVival Statistics) provides astronomy survival analysis for right- and left-censored data including the maximum-likelihood Kaplan-Meier estimator and several univariate two-sample tests, bivariate correlation measures, and linear regressions. ASURV is written in FORTRAN 77, and is stand-alone and does not call any specialized libraries.

Improved Survival With Radiation Therapy in High-Grade Soft Tissue Sarcomas of the Extremities: A SEER Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koshy, Matthew; Rich, Shayna E.; Mohiuddin, Majid M.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The benefit of radiation therapy in extremity soft tissue sarcomas remains controversial. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of radiation therapy on overall survival among patients with primary soft tissue sarcomas of the extremity who underwent limb-sparing surgery. Methods and Materials: A retrospective study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database that included data from January 1, 1988, to December 31, 2005. A total of 6,960 patients constituted the study population. Overall survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meir method and for patients with low- and high-grade tumors. Hazard ratios were calculated based on multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Of the cohort, 47% received radiation therapy. There was no significant difference in overall survival among patients with low-grade tumors by radiation therapy. In high-grade tumors, the 3-year overall survival was 73% in patients who received radiation therapy vs. 63% for those who did not receive radiation therapy (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, patients with high-grade tumors who received radiation therapy had an improved overall survival (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.57-0.79). In patients receiving radiation therapy, 13.5% received it in a neoadjuvant setting. The incidence of patients receiving neoadjuvant radiation did not change significantly between 1988 and 2005. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the largest population-based study reported in patients undergoing limb-sparing surgery for soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities. It reports that radiation was associated with improved survival in patients with high-grade tumors.

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1997 Annual Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hockersmith, Eric E.

1999-03-01

This report consists of two parts describing research activities completed during 1997 under Bonneville Power Administration Project Number 93-29. Part 1 provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 1997 for PIT-tagged hatchery steelhead and yearling chinook salmon in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. The results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures with a minimum of text. More detailed information on methodology and the statistical models used in the analysis are provided in previous annual reports cited in the text. Analysis of the relationships among travel time, survival, and environmental factors for 1997 and previous years of the study will be reported elsewhere. Part 2 of this report describes research to determine areas of loss and delay for juvenile hatchery salmonids above Lower Granite Reservoir.

Development of known-fate survival monitoring techniques for juvenile wild pigs (Sus scrofa)

Science.gov (United States)

David A. Keiter; John C. Kilgo; Mark A. Vukovich; Fred L. Cunningham; James C. Beasley

2017-01-01

Context. Wild pigs are an invasive species linked to numerous negative impacts on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems in many regions of the world. Robust estimates of juvenile wild pig survival are needed to improve population dynamics models to facilitate management of this economically and ecologically...

Adaptive OFDM Radar Waveform Design for Improved Micro-Doppler Estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sen, Satyabrata [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Center for Engineering Science Advanced Research, Computer Science and Mathematics Division

2014-07-01

Here we analyze the performance of a wideband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal in estimating the micro-Doppler frequency of a rotating target having multiple scattering centers. The use of a frequency-diverse OFDM signal enables us to independently analyze the micro-Doppler characteristics with respect to a set of orthogonal subcarrier frequencies. We characterize the accuracy of micro-Doppler frequency estimation by computing the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) on the angular-velocity estimate of the target. Additionally, to improve the accuracy of the estimation procedure, we formulate and solve an optimization problem by minimizing the CRB on the angular-velocity estimate with respect to the OFDM spectral coefficients. We present several numerical examples to demonstrate the CRB variations with respect to the signal-to-noise ratios, number of temporal samples, and number of OFDM subcarriers. We also analysed numerically the improvement in estimation accuracy due to the adaptive waveform design. A grid-based maximum likelihood estimation technique is applied to evaluate the corresponding mean-squared error performance.

The Green Roof Microbiome: Improving Plant Survival for Ecosystem Service Delivery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberta Fulthorpe

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Plants are key contributors to ecosystem services delivered by green roofs in cities including stormwater capture, temperature regulation, and wildlife habitat. As a result, current research has primarily focused on their growth in relationship to extensive green roof (e.g., substrates <15 cm depth ecosystem services. Green roofs are exposed to a variety of harsh abiotic factors such as intense solar radiation, wind, and isolation from ground-level habitats, making survival exceedingly difficult. Plants in natural habitats benefit from a variety of interactions with fungi and bacteria. These plant-microbial interactions improve mechanisms of survival and productivity; however, many green roof substrates are sterilized prior to installation and lack microbial communities with unstudied consequences for green roof plant health and subsequent survival and performance. In this paper, we present six hypotheses on the positive role of microbes in green roof applications. In natural and experimental systems, microbial interactions have been linked to plant (1 drought tolerance, (2 pathogen protection, (3 nutrient availability, (4 salt tolerance, (5 phytohormone production, and (6 substrate stabilization, all of which are desirable properties of green roof ecosystems. As few studies exist that directly examine these relationships on green roofs, we explore the existing ecological literature on these topics to unravel the mechanisms that could support more complex green roof ecosystem and lead to new insight into the design, performance, and broader applications in green infrastructure.

Improving the Quality of Adult Mortality Data Collected in Demographic Surveys: Validation Study of a New Siblings' Survival Questionnaire in Niakhar, Senegal

Science.gov (United States)

Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Masquelier, Bruno; Kanté, Almamy Malick; Douillot, Laetitia; Duthé, Géraldine; Sokhna, Cheikh; Delaunay, Valérie

2014-01-01

Background In countries with limited vital registration, adult mortality is frequently estimated using siblings' survival histories (SSHs) collected during Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). These data are affected by reporting errors. We developed a new SSH questionnaire, the siblings' survival calendar (SSC). It incorporates supplementary interviewing techniques to limit omissions of siblings and uses an event history calendar to improve reports of dates and ages. We hypothesized that the SSC would improve the quality of adult mortality data. Methods and Findings We conducted a retrospective validation study among the population of the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Senegal. We randomly assigned men and women aged 15–59 y to an interview with either the DHS questionnaire or the SSC. We compared SSHs collected in each group to prospective data on adult mortality collected in Niakhar. The SSC reduced respondents' tendency to round reports of dates and ages to the nearest multiple of five or ten (“heaping”). The SSC also had higher sensitivity in recording adult female deaths: among respondents whose sister(s) had died at an adult age in the past 15 y, 89.6% reported an adult female death during SSC interviews versus 75.6% in DHS interviews (p = 0.027). The specificity of the SSC was similar to that of the DHS questionnaire, i.e., it did not increase the number of false reports of deaths. However, the SSC did not improve the reporting of adult deaths among the brothers of respondents. Study limitations include sample selectivity, limited external validity, and multiple testing. Conclusions The SSC has the potential to collect more accurate SSHs than the questionnaire used in DHS. Further research is needed to assess the effects of the SSC on estimates of adult mortality rates. Additional validation studies should be conducted in different social and epidemiological settings. Trial Registration Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN06849961

Chronic intermittent fasting improves the survival following large myocardial ischemia by activation of BDNF/VEGF/PI3K signaling pathway.

Science.gov (United States)

Katare, Rajesh G; Kakinuma, Yoshihiko; Arikawa, Mikihiko; Yamasaki, Fumiyasu; Sato, Takayuki

2009-03-01

Chronic heart failure (CHF) is the major cause of death in the developed countries. Calorie restriction is known to improve the recovery in these patients; however, the exact mechanism behind this protective effect is unknown. Here we demonstrate the activation of cell survival PI3kinase/Akt and VEGF pathway as the mechanism behind the protection induced by intermittent fasting in a rat model of established chronic myocardial ischemia (MI). Chronic MI was induced in rats by occlusion of the left coronary artery. Two weeks later, the rats were randomly assigned to a normal feeding group (MI-NF) and an alternate-day feeding group (MI-IF). After 6 weeks of observation, we evaluated the effect of intermittent fasting on cellular and ventricular remodeling and long-term survival after CHF. Compared with the normally fed group, intermittent fasting markedly improved the survival of rats with CHF (88.5% versus 23% survival, Pfasted hearts. Immunohistochemical studies confirmed increased capillary density (Pfasting also upregulated the expression of other anti-apoptotic factors such as Akt and Bcl-2 and reduced the TUNEL positive apoptotic nuclei in the border zone. Chronic intermittent fasting markedly improves the long-term survival after CHF by activation through its pro-angiogenic, anti-apoptotic and anti-remodeling effects.

Nest survival modelling using a multi-species approach in forests managed for timber and biofuel feedstock

Science.gov (United States)

Loman, Zachary G.; Monroe, Adrian; Riffell, Samuel K.; Miller, Darren A.; Vilella, Francisco; Wheat, Bradley R.; Rush, Scott A.; Martin, James A.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) intercropping is a novel forest management practice for biomass production intended to generate cellulosic feedstocks within intensively managed loblolly pine‐dominated landscapes. These pine plantations are important for early‐successional bird species, as short rotation times continually maintain early‐successional habitat. We tested the efficacy of using community models compared to individual surrogate species models in understanding influences on nest survival. We analysed nest data to test for differences in habitat use for 14 bird species in plots managed for switchgrass intercropping and controls within loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations in Mississippi, USA.We adapted hierarchical models using hyper‐parameters to incorporate information from both common and rare species to understand community‐level nest survival. This approach incorporates rare species that are often discarded due to low sample sizes, but can inform community‐level demographic parameter estimates. We illustrate use of this approach in generating both species‐level and community‐wide estimates of daily survival rates for songbird nests. We were able to include rare species with low sample size (minimum n = 5) to inform a hyper‐prior, allowing us to estimate effects of covariates on daily survival at the community level, then compare this with a single‐species approach using surrogate species. Using single‐species models, we were unable to generate estimates below a sample size of 21 nests per species.Community model species‐level survival and parameter estimates were similar to those generated by five single‐species models, with improved precision in community model parameters.Covariates of nest placement indicated that switchgrass at the nest site (<4 m) reduced daily nest survival, although intercropping at the forest stand level increased daily nest survival.Synthesis and applications. Community models represent a viable

Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume XXI; A Summary of Methods for Conducting Salmonid Fry Mark-Recapture Studies for Estimating Survival in Tributaries, Technical Report 2005-2006.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skalski, John

2007-02-01

Productivity and early fry survival can have a major influence on the dynamics of fish stocks. To investigate the early life history of fish, numerous methods have been developed or adapted to these much smaller fish. Some of the marking techniques provide individual identification; many others, only class identification. Some of the tagging techniques require destructive sampling to identify a mark; other methods permit benign examination and rerelease of captured fish. Sixteen alternative release-recapture designs for conducting fry survival investigations were examined. Eleven approaches were found capable of estimating survival parameters; five were not. Of those methods capable of estimating fry survival, five required unique marks, four required batch-specific marks, and two approaches required remarking and rereleasing captured fry. No approach based on a simple batch mark was capable of statistically estimating survival.

Adult Rhabdomyosarcoma Survival Improved With Treatment on Multimodality Protocols

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerber, Naamit Kurshan; Wexler, Leonard H.; Singer, Samuel; Alektiar, Kaled M.; Keohan, Mary Louise; Shi, Weiji; Zhang, Zhigang; Wolden, Suzanne

2013-01-01

Purpose: Rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) is a pediatric sarcoma rarely occurring in adults. For unknown reasons, adults with RMS have worse outcomes than do children. Methods and Materials: We analyzed data from all patients who presented to Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1990 and 2011 with RMS diagnosed at age 16 or older. One hundred forty-eight patients met the study criteria. Ten were excluded for lack of adequate data. Results: The median age was 28 years. The histologic diagnoses were as follows: embryonal 54%, alveolar 33%, pleomorphic 12%, and not otherwise specified 2%. The tumor site was unfavorable in 67% of patients. Thirty-three patients (24%) were at low risk, 61 (44%) at intermediate risk, and 44 (32%) at high risk. Forty-six percent were treated on or according to a prospective RMS protocol. The 5-year rate of overall survival (OS) was 45% for patients with nonmetastatic disease. The failure rates at 5 years for patients with nonmetastatic disease were 34% for local failure and 42% for distant failure. Among patients with nonmetastatic disease (n=94), significant factors associated with OS were histologic diagnosis, site, risk group, age, and protocol treatment. On multivariate analysis, risk group and protocol treatment were significant after adjustment for age. The 5-year OS was 54% for protocol patients versus 36% for nonprotocol patients. Conclusions: Survival in adult patients with nonmetastatic disease was significantly improved for those treated on RMS protocols, most of which are now open to adults

Adult Rhabdomyosarcoma Survival Improved With Treatment on Multimodality Protocols

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gerber, Naamit Kurshan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Wexler, Leonard H. [Department of Pediatrics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Singer, Samuel [Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Alektiar, Kaled M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Keohan, Mary Louise [Department of Medicine, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Shi, Weiji; Zhang, Zhigang [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Wolden, Suzanne, E-mail: woldens@mskcc.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States)

2013-05-01

Purpose: Rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) is a pediatric sarcoma rarely occurring in adults. For unknown reasons, adults with RMS have worse outcomes than do children. Methods and Materials: We analyzed data from all patients who presented to Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1990 and 2011 with RMS diagnosed at age 16 or older. One hundred forty-eight patients met the study criteria. Ten were excluded for lack of adequate data. Results: The median age was 28 years. The histologic diagnoses were as follows: embryonal 54%, alveolar 33%, pleomorphic 12%, and not otherwise specified 2%. The tumor site was unfavorable in 67% of patients. Thirty-three patients (24%) were at low risk, 61 (44%) at intermediate risk, and 44 (32%) at high risk. Forty-six percent were treated on or according to a prospective RMS protocol. The 5-year rate of overall survival (OS) was 45% for patients with nonmetastatic disease. The failure rates at 5 years for patients with nonmetastatic disease were 34% for local failure and 42% for distant failure. Among patients with nonmetastatic disease (n=94), significant factors associated with OS were histologic diagnosis, site, risk group, age, and protocol treatment. On multivariate analysis, risk group and protocol treatment were significant after adjustment for age. The 5-year OS was 54% for protocol patients versus 36% for nonprotocol patients. Conclusions: Survival in adult patients with nonmetastatic disease was significantly improved for those treated on RMS protocols, most of which are now open to adults.

An Improvement to Interval Estimation for Small Samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUN Hui-Ling

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Because it is difficult and complex to determine the probability distribution of small samples，it is improper to use traditional probability theory to process parameter estimation for small samples. Bayes Bootstrap method is always used in the project. Although，the Bayes Bootstrap method has its own limitation，In this article an improvement is given to the Bayes Bootstrap method，This method extended the amount of samples by numerical simulation without changing the circumstances in a small sample of the original sample. And the new method can give the accurate interval estimation for the small samples. Finally，by using the Monte Carlo simulation to model simulation to the specific small sample problems. The effectiveness and practicability of the Improved-Bootstrap method was proved.

Improved ice loss estimate of the northwestern Greenland ice sheet

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Wahr, J.

2013-01-01

We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003–2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change...... estimate, we supplement the ICESat data with altimeter surveys from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper from 2002 to 2010 and NASA's Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor from 2010. The Airborne data are mainly concentrated along the ice margin and thus have a significant impact on the estimate of the volume...... change. Our results show that adding Airborne Topographic Mapper and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor data to the ICESat data increases the catchment-wide estimate of ice volume loss by 11%, mainly due to an improved volume loss estimate along the ice sheet margin. Furthermore, our results show...

Endothelial Progenitor Cell Mobilization in Preterm Infants With Sepsis Is Associated With Improved Survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Siavashi, Vahid; Asadian, Simin; Taheri-Asl, Masoud; Keshavarz, Samaneh; Zamani-Ahmadmahmudi, Mohamad; Nassiri, Seyed Mahdi

2017-10-01

Microvascular dysfunction plays a key role in the pathology of sepsis, leading to multi-organ failure, and death. Circulating endothelial progenitor cells (cEPCs) are critically involved in the maintenance of the vascular homeostasis in both physiological and pathological contexts. In this study, concentration of cEPCs in preterm infants with sepsis was determined to recognize whether the EPC mobilization would affect the clinical outcome of infantile sepsis. One hundred and thirty-three preterm infants (81 with sepsis and 52 without sepsis) were enrolled in this study. The release of EPCs in circulation was first quantified. Thereafter, these cells were cultivated and biological features of these cells such as, proliferation and colony forming efficiency were analyzed. The levels of chemoattractant cytokines were also measured in infants. In mouse models of sepsis, effects of VEGF and SDF-1 as well as anti-VEGF and anti-SDF-1 were evaluated in order to shed light upon the role which the EPC mobilization plays in the overall survival of septic animals. Circulating EPCs were significantly higher in preterm infants with sepsis than in the non-sepsis group. Serum levels of VEGF, SDF-1, and Angiopoietin-2 were also higher in preterm infants with sepsis than in control non-sepsis. In the animal experiments, injection of VEGF and SDF-1 prompted the mobilization of EPCs, leading to an improvement in survival whereas injection of anti-VEGF and anti-SDF-1 was associated with significant deterioration of survival. Overall, our results demonstrated the beneficial effects of EPC release in preterm infants with sepsis, with increased mobilization of these cells was associated with improved survival. J. Cell. Biochem. 118: 3299-3307, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Improving real-time estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation using rain gauge data via conditional bias-penalized optimal estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Dong-Jun; Siddique, Ridwan; Zhang, Yu; Kim, Dongsoo

2014-11-01

A new technique for gauge-only precipitation analysis for improved estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation is described and evaluated. The technique is based on a novel extension of classical optimal linear estimation theory in which, in addition to error variance, Type-II conditional bias (CB) is explicitly minimized. When cast in the form of well-known kriging, the methodology yields a new kriging estimator, referred to as CB-penalized kriging (CBPK). CBPK, however, tends to yield negative estimates in areas of no or light precipitation. To address this, an extension of CBPK, referred to herein as extended conditional bias penalized kriging (ECBPK), has been developed which combines the CBPK estimate with a trivial estimate of zero precipitation. To evaluate ECBPK, we carried out real-world and synthetic experiments in which ECBPK and the gauge-only precipitation analysis procedure used in the NWS's Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) were compared for estimation of point precipitation and mean areal precipitation (MAP), respectively. The results indicate that ECBPK improves hourly gauge-only estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation significantly. The improvement is particularly large for estimation of MAP for a range of combinations of basin size and rain gauge network density. This paper describes the technique, summarizes the results and shares ideas for future research.

Factors predictive of survival and estimated years of life lost in the decade following nontraumatic and traumatic spinal cord injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Hatch, B B; Wood-Wentz, C M; Therneau, T M; Walker, M G; Payne, J M; Reeves, R K

2017-06-01

Retrospective chart review. To identify factors predictive of survival after spinal cord injury (SCI). Tertiary care institution. Multiple-variable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis for 759 patients with SCI (535 nontraumatic and 221 traumatic) included age, sex, completeness of injury, level of injury, functional independence measure (FIM) scores, rehabilitation length of stay and SCI cause. Estimated years of life lost in the decade after injury was calculated for patients vs uninjured controls. Median follow-up was 11.4 years. Population characteristics included paraplegia, 58%; complete injury, 11%; male sex, 64%; and median rehabilitation length of stay, 16 days. Factors independently predictive of decreased survival were increased age (+10 years; hazard ratio (HR (95% CI)), 1.6 (1.4-1.7)), male sex (1.3 (1.0-1.6)), lower dismissal FIM score (-10 points; 1.3 (1.2-1.3)) and all nontraumatic causes. Metastatic cancer had the largest decrease in survival (HR (95% CI), 13.3 (8.7-20.2)). Primary tumors (HR (95% CI), 2.5 (1.7-3.8)), vascular (2.5 (1.6-3.8)), musculoskeletal/stenosis (1.7 (1.2-2.5)) and other nontraumatic SCI (2.3 (1.5-3.6)) were associated with decreased survival. Ten-year survival was decreased in nontraumatic SCI (mean (s.d.), 1.8 (0.3) years lost), with largest decreases in survival for metastatic cancer and spinal cord ischemia. Age, male sex and lower dismissal FIM score were associated with decreased survival, but neither injury severity nor level was associated with it. Survival after SCI varies depending on SCI cause, with survival better after traumatic SCI than after nontraumatic SCI. Metastatic cancer and vascular ischemia were associated with the greatest survival reduction.

Hepatocyte transplantation improves early survival after partial hepatic resection and irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guha, C.; Sharma, A.; Alfieri, A.; Guha, U.; Sokhi, R.; Gagandeep, S.; Gupta, S.; Vikram, B.; RoyChowdhury, J.

1997-01-01

Purpose: Radiation therapy (RT) is limited in its role as an adjuvant therapy of intrahepatic malignancies because of lower tolerance of human liver to irradiation (TD (5(5)) -TD (50(5)) ∼ 30-40 Gy). Although, surgical resection of primary or metastatic hepatic tumors has been shown to prolong survival, it is often limited by the presence of residual disease. RT could potentially improve survival of patients with positive surgical margins. However, radiation damage to the liver may be enhanced by hepatocellular proliferation induced by partial hepatic (PH) resection. We hypothesize that hepatocyte transplantation would be able to provide metabolic support and modulate the development of radiation-induced liver disease post-resection. The present study was designed to test the potential of hepatocyte transplantation in modifying the outcome of hepatocellular damage induced by PH and RT. Methods: Adult male Fischer 344 rats (Charles River) received hepatic irradiation of 50 Gy in a single fraction, after surgical exposure and shielding of the stomach and intestine, using a 320 MGC Philips orthovoltage unit. Immediately following irradiation, a two-third partial hepatectomy was performed. Four days post-radiation, the treatment group was injected with 5 x 10 6 syngeneic hepatocytes into the splenic pulp after a left subcostal incision, which allows homogeneous liver engraftment of the transplanted hepatocytes. Hematoxylin and eosin stains of liver biopsies, performed at various time points (3 days, 1, 2, 3 weeks or, anytime when animals died) were used for histologic evaluation. Time-adjusted survival was calculated from the date of irradiation by the product-limit Kaplan-Meier method, adjusting the denominator at every time point for the number of rats at risk. Results: Eight weeks after RT, 30% (n = 11) of the control animals (PH + 50 Gy) were alive compared to 100% (n = 9) of the transplant recipients (p <0.05). The median survival of the control group was 15

New graphic AUC-based method to estimate overall survival benefit: pomalidomide reanalysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fenix-Caballero, S; Diaz-Navarro, J; Prieto-Callejero, B; Rios-Sanchez, E; Alegre-del Rey, E J; Borrero-Rubio, J M

2016-02-01

Difference in median survival is an erratic measure and sometimes does not provide a good assessment of survival benefit. The aim of this study was to reanalyse the overall survival benefit of pomalidomide from pivotal clinical trial using a new area under curve (AUC)-based method. In the pivotal trial, pomalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone showed a significant survival benefit over high-dose dexamethasone, with a difference between medians of 4.6 months. The new AUC method applied to the survival curves, obtained an overall survival benefit of 2.6 months for the pomalidomide treatment. This average difference in OS was calculated for the 61.5% of patients for whom the time to event is reliable enough. This 2-month differential would have major clinical and pharmacoeconomic implications, on both cost-effectiveness studies and on the willingness of the healthcare systems to pay for this treatment. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis.

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, E L; Fewster, R M; Childerhouse, S J; Patenaude, N J; Boren, L; Baker, C S

2016-01-01

Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6-12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species' primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995-1998 and 2006-2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2-8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time.

Survival following ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm before and during the IMPROVE Trial: a single-centre series.

Science.gov (United States)

Ambler, G K; Twine, C P; Shak, J; Rollins, K E; Varty, K; Coughlin, P A; Hayes, P D; Boyle, J R

2014-04-01

The first large-scale randomised trial (Immediate Management of the Patient with Rupture: Open Versus Endovascular repair [IMPROVE]) for endovascular repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rEVAR) has recently finished recruiting patients. The aim of this study was to examine the impact on survival after rEVAR when the IMPROVE protocol was initiated in a high volume abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) centre previously performing rEVAR. One hundred and sixty-nine patients requiring emergency infrarenal AAA repair from January 2006 to April 2013 were included. Eighty-four patients were treated before (38 rEVAR, 46 open) and 85 (31 rEVAR, 54 open) were treated during the trial period. A retrospective analysis was performed. Before the trial, there was a significant survival benefit for rEVAR over open repair (90-day mortality 13% vs. 30%, p = .04, difference remained significant up to 2 years postoperatively). This survival benefit was lost after starting randomisation (90-day mortality 35% vs. 33%, p = .93). There was an increase in overall 30-day mortality from 15% to 31% (p = .02), while there was no change for open repair (p = .438). There was a significant decrease in general anaesthetic use (p = .002) for patients treated during the trial. Randomised patients had shorter hospital and intensive treatment unit stays (p = .006 and p = .03 respectively). The change in survival seen during the IMROVE trial highlights the need for randomised rather than cohort data to eliminate selection bias. These results from a single centre reinforce those recently reported in IMPROVE. Copyright © 2014 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does Surgical Repair of Moderate Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation Improve Survival? A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Saurav; Tripathi, Byomesh; Virk, Hafeez Ul Hassan; Ahmed, Mohammed; Bavishi, Chirag; Krishnamoorthy, Parasuram; Sardar, Partha; Giri, Jay; Omidvari, Karan; Chikwe, Joanna

2016-03-01

Mitral regurgitation (MR) is one of the common complications in myocardial infarction (MI) patients. Almost half of the post MI patients have MR (ischemic MR)(17) which is moderate to severe (grade II-IV). Whether there is a mortality benefit of performing mitral valve repair (MVR) along with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with post MI moderate MR remains inconclusive. Literature search was done from PubMed, Google scholar, Ovid, and Medline databases. Studies which included post MI patients with moderate ischemic MR and reported mortality outcomes of performing CABG and MVR were chosen for the systematic review. Our preliminary literature search identified 194 studies, of which 11 studies met our inclusion criteria. Nine studies showed no survival benefit of performing simultaneous MVR and CABG. One study demonstrated survival benefit of performing CABG plus MVR only in the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III-IV, and one study suggested survival benefit of performing CABG plus MVR as compared to CABG alone in patient with ischemic MR irrespective of preoperative NYHA functional class. Review of current literature showed mixed results in terms of improvement in functional status but failed to show any survival benefit of performing MVR along with CABG. Limitations of studies include small sample size, difference in baseline demographic variables, and short follow-up period which might influence the outcome of the study. Prospective randomized studies are required to establish clear benefit of performing MVR simultaneously with CABG.

Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study

Science.gov (United States)

Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Design Population based cohort study. Setting England. Population More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Main outcome measures Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. Results One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Conclusions Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. PMID:29540358

Survival of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts through a hydropower complex.

Science.gov (United States)

Stich, D S; Bailey, M M; Zydlewski, J D

2014-10-01

This study evaluated Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolt survival through the lower Penobscot River, Maine, U.S.A., and characterized relative differences in proportional use and survival through the main-stem of the river and an alternative migration route, the Stillwater Branch. The work was conducted prior to removal of two main-stem dams and operational changes in hydropower facilities in the Stillwater Branch. Survival and proportional use of migration routes in the lower Penobscot were estimated from multistate (MS) models based on 6 years of acoustic telemetry data from 1669 smolts and 2 years of radio-telemetry data from 190 fish. A small proportion (0·12, 95% c.i. = 0·06-0·25) of smolts used the Stillwater Branch, and mean survival through the two operational dams in this part of the river was relatively high (1·00 and 0·97). Survival at Milford Dam, the dam that will remain in the main-stem of the Penobscot River, was relatively low (0·91), whereas survival through two dams that were removed was relatively high (0·99 and 0·98). Smolt survival could decrease in the Stillwater Branch with the addition of two new powerhouses while continuing to meet fish passage standards. The effects of removing two dams in the main-stem are expected to be negligible for smolt survival based on high survival observed from 2005 to 2012 at those locations. Survival through Milford Dam was been well below current regulatory standards, and thus improvement of passage at this location offers the best opportunity for improving overall smolt survival in the lower river. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

An improved method for estimating the frequency correlation function

KAUST Repository

Chelli, Ali; Pä tzold, Matthias

2012-01-01

For time-invariant frequency-selective channels, the transfer function is a superposition of waves having different propagation delays and path gains. In order to estimate the frequency correlation function (FCF) of such channels, the frequency averaging technique can be utilized. The obtained FCF can be expressed as a sum of auto-terms (ATs) and cross-terms (CTs). The ATs are caused by the autocorrelation of individual path components. The CTs are due to the cross-correlation of different path components. These CTs have no physical meaning and leads to an estimation error. We propose a new estimation method aiming to improve the estimation accuracy of the FCF of a band-limited transfer function. The basic idea behind the proposed method is to introduce a kernel function aiming to reduce the CT effect, while preserving the ATs. In this way, we can improve the estimation of the FCF. The performance of the proposed method and the frequency averaging technique is analyzed using a synthetically generated transfer function. We show that the proposed method is more accurate than the frequency averaging technique. The accurate estimation of the FCF is crucial for the system design. In fact, we can determine the coherence bandwidth from the FCF. The exact knowledge of the coherence bandwidth is beneficial in both the design as well as optimization of frequency interleaving and pilot arrangement schemes. © 2012 IEEE.

An improved method for estimating the frequency correlation function

KAUST Repository

Chelli, Ali

2012-04-01

For time-invariant frequency-selective channels, the transfer function is a superposition of waves having different propagation delays and path gains. In order to estimate the frequency correlation function (FCF) of such channels, the frequency averaging technique can be utilized. The obtained FCF can be expressed as a sum of auto-terms (ATs) and cross-terms (CTs). The ATs are caused by the autocorrelation of individual path components. The CTs are due to the cross-correlation of different path components. These CTs have no physical meaning and leads to an estimation error. We propose a new estimation method aiming to improve the estimation accuracy of the FCF of a band-limited transfer function. The basic idea behind the proposed method is to introduce a kernel function aiming to reduce the CT effect, while preserving the ATs. In this way, we can improve the estimation of the FCF. The performance of the proposed method and the frequency averaging technique is analyzed using a synthetically generated transfer function. We show that the proposed method is more accurate than the frequency averaging technique. The accurate estimation of the FCF is crucial for the system design. In fact, we can determine the coherence bandwidth from the FCF. The exact knowledge of the coherence bandwidth is beneficial in both the design as well as optimization of frequency interleaving and pilot arrangement schemes. © 2012 IEEE.

Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture–recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network

Science.gov (United States)

Letcher, Benjamin H.; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B.; Whiteley, Andrew R.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

2015-01-01

Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses.We developed an integrated capture–recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival.We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature.Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative

Improving survival of culture bacteria in frozen desserts by microentrapment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheu, T Y; Marshall, R T; Heymann, H

1993-07-01

Lactobacillus bulgaricus cells were entrapped in beads of calcium alginate and evaluated for their ability to survive freezing processes. Cells survived freezing (without agitation) in ice milk mix much better than in distilled water, and more entrapped cells survived than did cells that were not entrapped. Glycerol and mannitol were cryoprotective, but glucose was not, when each was added (6%) separately to the beads. Entrapment protected the lactobacilli in batch frozen and continuously frozen ice milk mixes. The percentage of survival for entrapped and unentrapped cells in continuously frozen ice milk approximated 90 and 40%, respectively. Lactobacilli survived better in beads with mean diameters > 30 microns than in those averaging 15 microns. Addition of entrapped lactobacilli had no measurable effect on the sensory characteristics of the ice milk.

Important prognostic factors for the long-term survival of lung cancer subjects in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiang, Tai-An; Chen, Ping-Ho; Wu, Pei-Fen; Wang, Tsu-Nai; Chang, Po-Ya; Ko, Albert Min-Shan; Huang, Ming-Shyan; Ko, Ying-Chin

2008-01-01

This study used a large-scale cancer database in determination of prognostic factors for the survival of lung cancer subjects in Taiwan. Total of 24,910 subjects diagnosed with lung cancer was analysed. Survival estimates by Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox proportional-hazards model estimated the death risk (hazard ratio (HR)) for various prognostic factors. The prognostic indicators associated with a higher risk of lung cancer deaths are male gender (males versus females; HR = 1.07, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.03–1.11), males diagnosed in later periods (shown in 1991–1994 versus 1987–1990; HR = 1.13), older age at diagnosis, large cell carcinoma (LCC)/small cell carcinoma (SCC), and supportive care therapy over chemotherapy. The overall 5-year survival rate for lung cancer death was significantly poorer for males (21.3%) than females (23.6%). Subjects with squamous cell carcinoma (SQCC) and treatment by surgical resection alone had better prognosis. We find surgical resections to markedly increase 5-year survival rate from LCC, decreased risk of death from LCC, and no improved survival from SCC. Gender and clinical characteristics (i.e. diagnostic period, diagnostic age, histological type and treatment modality) play important roles in determining lung cancer survival

Survival rate in nasopharyngeal carcinoma improved by high caseload volume: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ching-Chih; Hung, Shih-Kai; Huang, Tze-Ta; Lee, Moon-Sing; Su, Yu-Chieh; Chou, Pesus; Hsiao, Shih-Hsuan; Chiou, Wen-Yen; Lin, Hon-Yi; Chien, Sou-Hsin

2011-01-01

Positive correlation between caseload and outcome has previously been validated for several procedures and cancer treatments. However, there is no information linking caseload and outcome of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treatment. We used nationwide population-based data to examine the association between physician case volume and survival rates of patients with NPC. Between 1998 and 2000, a total of 1225 patients were identified from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Survival analysis, the Cox proportional hazards model, and propensity score were used to assess the relationship between 10-year survival rates and physician caseloads. As the caseload of individual physicians increased, unadjusted 10-year survival rates increased (p < 0.001). Using a Cox proportional hazard model, patients with NPC treated by high-volume physicians (caseload ≥ 35) had better survival rates (p = 0.001) after adjusting for comorbidities, hospital, and treatment modality. When analyzed by propensity score, the adjusted 10-year survival rate differed significantly between patients treated by high-volume physicians and patients treated by low/medium-volume physicians (75% vs. 61%; p < 0.001). Our data confirm a positive volume-outcome relationship for NPC. After adjusting for differences in the case mix, our analysis found treatment of NPC by high-volume physicians improved 10-year survival rate

Option A improved HIV-free infant survival and mother to child HIV transmission at 9-18 months in Zimbabwe.

Science.gov (United States)

Buzdugan, Raluca; Kang Dufour, Mi-Suk; McCoy, Sandra I; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Mushavi, Angela; Mujuru, Hilda Angela; Mahomva, Agnes; Kangwende, Rugare Abigail; Hakobyan, Anna; Mugurungi, Owen; Cowan, Frances M; Padian, Nancy S

2016-06-19

We evaluated the impact of Option A on HIV-free infant survival and mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) in Zimbabwe. Serial cross-sectional community-based serosurveys. We analyzed serosurvey data collected in 2012 and 2014 among mother-infant pairs from catchment areas of 132 health facilities from five of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Eligible infants (alive or deceased) were born 9-18 months before each survey to mothers at least 16 years old. We randomly selected mother-infant pairs and conducted questionnaires, verbal autopsies, and collected blood samples. We estimated the HIV-free infant survival and MTCT rate within each catchment area and compared the 2012 and 2014 estimates using a paired t test and number of HIV infections averted because of the intervention. We analyzed 7249 mother-infant pairs with viable maternal specimens collected in 2012 and 8551 in 2014. The mean difference in the catchment area level MTCT between 2014 and 2012 was -5.2 percentage points (95% confidence interval = -8.1, -2.3, P Option A regimen. The association between HIV-free infant survival and duration of Option A implementation was NS at the multivariate level (P = 0.093). We found a substantial and statistically significant increase in HIV-free survival and decrease in MTCT among infants aged 9-18 months following Option A rollout in Zimbabwe. This is the only evaluation of Option A and shows the effectiveness of Option A and Zimbabwe's remarkable progress toward eMTCT.

Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate survival in patients with colorectal cancer: cohort study

OpenAIRE

Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

2017-01-01

Objective: To develop and externally validate risk prediction equations to estimate absolute and conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer. \\ud \\ud Design: Cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database linked to the national cancer registry.\\ud \\ud Participants: 44 145 patients aged 15-99 with colorectal cancer from 947 practices to derive the equations. The equations were validated in 15 214 patients with colorectal cancer ...

Can survival prediction be improved by merging gene expression data sets?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haleh Yasrebi

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: High-throughput gene expression profiling technologies generating a wealth of data, are increasingly used for characterization of tumor biopsies for clinical trials. By applying machine learning algorithms to such clinically documented data sets, one hopes to improve tumor diagnosis, prognosis, as well as prediction of treatment response. However, the limited number of patients enrolled in a single trial study limits the power of machine learning approaches due to over-fitting. One could partially overcome this limitation by merging data from different studies. Nevertheless, such data sets differ from each other with regard to technical biases, patient selection criteria and follow-up treatment. It is therefore not clear at all whether the advantage of increased sample size outweighs the disadvantage of higher heterogeneity of merged data sets. Here, we present a systematic study to answer this question specifically for breast cancer data sets. We use survival prediction based on Cox regression as an assay to measure the added value of merged data sets. RESULTS: Using time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC and hazard ratio as performance measures, we see in overall no significant improvement or deterioration of survival prediction with merged data sets as compared to individual data sets. This apparently was due to the fact that a few genes with strong prognostic power were not available on all microarray platforms and thus were not retained in the merged data sets. Surprisingly, we found that the overall best performance was achieved with a single-gene predictor consisting of CYB5D1. CONCLUSIONS: Merging did not deteriorate performance on average despite (a The diversity of microarray platforms used. (b The heterogeneity of patients cohorts. (c The heterogeneity of breast cancer disease. (d Substantial variation of time to death or relapse. (e The reduced number of genes in the merged data

Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Petersen, Japke F.; Stuiver, Martijn M.; Timmermans, Adriana J.; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P.; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T.; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W. M.

2017-01-01

TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442

Increasing fMRI sampling rate improves Granger causality estimates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fa-Hsuan Lin

Full Text Available Estimation of causal interactions between brain areas is necessary for elucidating large-scale functional brain networks underlying behavior and cognition. Granger causality analysis of time series data can quantitatively estimate directional information flow between brain regions. Here, we show that such estimates are significantly improved when the temporal sampling rate of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI is increased 20-fold. Specifically, healthy volunteers performed a simple visuomotor task during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD contrast based whole-head inverse imaging (InI. Granger causality analysis based on raw InI BOLD data sampled at 100-ms resolution detected the expected causal relations, whereas when the data were downsampled to the temporal resolution of 2 s typically used in echo-planar fMRI, the causality could not be detected. An additional control analysis, in which we SINC interpolated additional data points to the downsampled time series at 0.1-s intervals, confirmed that the improvements achieved with the real InI data were not explainable by the increased time-series length alone. We therefore conclude that the high-temporal resolution of InI improves the Granger causality connectivity analysis of the human brain.

A generalized additive regression model for survival times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.

2001-01-01

Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

Survival rate in nasopharyngeal carcinoma improved by high caseload volume: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chou Pesus

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Positive correlation between caseload and outcome has previously been validated for several procedures and cancer treatments. However, there is no information linking caseload and outcome of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC treatment. We used nationwide population-based data to examine the association between physician case volume and survival rates of patients with NPC. Methods Between 1998 and 2000, a total of 1225 patients were identified from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Survival analysis, the Cox proportional hazards model, and propensity score were used to assess the relationship between 10-year survival rates and physician caseloads. Results As the caseload of individual physicians increased, unadjusted 10-year survival rates increased (p p = 0.001 after adjusting for comorbidities, hospital, and treatment modality. When analyzed by propensity score, the adjusted 10-year survival rate differed significantly between patients treated by high-volume physicians and patients treated by low/medium-volume physicians (75% vs. 61%; p Conclusions Our data confirm a positive volume-outcome relationship for NPC. After adjusting for differences in the case mix, our analysis found treatment of NPC by high-volume physicians improved 10-year survival rate.

Focal Radiation Therapy Dose Escalation Improves Overall Survival in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Patients Receiving Induction Chemotherapy and Consolidative Chemoradiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krishnan, Sunil, E-mail: skrishnan@mdanderson.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas, Houston, Texas (United States); Chadha, Awalpreet S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas, Houston, Texas (United States); Suh, Yelin [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas, Houston, Texas (United States); Chen, Hsiang-Chun [Department of Biostatistics, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Rao, Arvind [Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Das, Prajnan; Minsky, Bruce D.; Mahmood, Usama; Delclos, Marc E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas, Houston, Texas (United States); Sawakuchi, Gabriel O. [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas, Houston, Texas (United States); Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, The University of Texas, Houston, Texas (United States); Beddar, Sam [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas, Houston, Texas (United States); Katz, Matthew H.; Fleming, Jason B. [Department of Surgical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Javle, Milind M.; Varadhachary, Gauri R.; Wolff, Robert A. [Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Crane, Christopher H. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas, Houston, Texas (United States)

2016-03-15

Purpose: To review outcomes of locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) patients treated with dose-escalated intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with curative intent. Methods and Materials: A total of 200 patients with LAPC were treated with induction chemotherapy followed by chemoradiation between 2006 and 2014. Of these, 47 (24%) having tumors >1 cm from the luminal organs were selected for dose-escalated IMRT (biologically effective dose [BED] >70 Gy) using a simultaneous integrated boost technique, inspiration breath hold, and computed tomographic image guidance. Fractionation was optimized for coverage of gross tumor and luminal organ sparing. A 2- to 5-mm margin around the gross tumor volume was treated using a simultaneous integrated boost with a microscopic dose. Overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), local-regional and distant RFS, and time to local-regional and distant recurrence, calculated from start of chemoradiation, were the outcomes of interest. Results: Median radiation dose was 50.4 Gy (BED = 59.47 Gy) with a concurrent capecitabine-based (86%) regimen. Patients who received BED >70 Gy had a superior OS (17.8 vs 15.0 months, P=.03), which was preserved throughout the follow-up period, with estimated OS rates at 2 years of 36% versus 19% and at 3 years of 31% versus 9% along with improved local-regional RFS (10.2 vs 6.2 months, P=.05) as compared with those receiving BED ≤70 Gy. Degree of gross tumor volume coverage did not seem to affect outcomes. No additional toxicity was observed in the high-dose group. Higher dose (BED) was the only predictor of improved OS on multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Radiation dose escalation during consolidative chemoradiation therapy after induction chemotherapy for LAPC patients improves OS and local-regional RFS.

Improving RNA-Seq expression estimates by correcting for fragment bias

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

The biochemistry of RNA-Seq library preparation results in cDNA fragments that are not uniformly distributed within the transcripts they represent. This non-uniformity must be accounted for when estimating expression levels, and we show how to perform the needed corrections using a likelihood based approach. We find improvements in expression estimates as measured by correlation with independently performed qRT-PCR and show that correction of bias leads to improved replicability of results across libraries and sequencing technologies. PMID:21410973

On Improving Density Estimators which are not Bona Fide Functions

OpenAIRE

Gajek, Leslaw

1986-01-01

In order to improve the rate of decrease of the IMSE for nonparametric kernel density estimators with nonrandom bandwidth beyond $O(n^{-4/5})$ all current methods must relax the constraint that the density estimate be a bona fide function, that is, be nonnegative and integrate to one. In this paper we show how to achieve similar improvement without relaxing any of these constraints. The method can also be applied for orthogonal series, adaptive orthogonal series, spline, jackknife, and other ...

Improved survival after an educational project on colon cancer management in the county of Stockholm--a population based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernhoff, R; Martling, A; Sjövall, A; Granath, F; Hohenberger, W; Holm, T

2015-11-01

Outcomes in rectal cancer have improved dramatically after the introduction of total mesorectal excision (TME). Recently, the TME concept has been transformed into that of complete mesocolic excision (CME) in an attempt to improve prognosis for patients with colon cancer. Multidisciplinary team (MDT) workshops including the CME concept were held annually between 2004 and 2008 at the Karolinska University Hospital. The workshops focused on preoperative staging, surgery and histopathology and included lectures and live surgery sessions. To compare survival before and after the "Stockholm Colon Cancer Project" all patients diagnosed with a right sided colon cancer between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2003 (Group 1) and from January 1, 2006 until December 31, 2008 (Group 2) in Stockholm were identified from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry (SCRCR). The proportion of patients having a tumour resection and the proportion having emergency surgery was higher in Group 1. There were more early tumours and more R0 resections in Group 2. Overall survival in all diagnosed patients and disease free survival after tumour resection was improved in the second time period. Surgical teaching programmes may have an impact on the management and outcome in colon cancer. The exact impact from the "Stockholm Colon Cancer Project" cannot be established, however it is likely that it contributed to the improved survival. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reporting Errors in Siblings’ Survival Histories and Their Impact on Adult Mortality Estimates: Results From a Record Linkage Study in Senegal

Science.gov (United States)

Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Kanté, Almamy M.; Duthé, Géraldine; Andro, Armelle

2014-01-01

Estimates of adult mortality in countries with limited vital registration (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa) are often derived from information about the survival of a respondent’s siblings. We evaluated the completeness and accuracy of such data through a record linkage study conducted in Bandafassi, located in southeastern Senegal. We linked at the individual level retrospective siblings’ survival histories (SSH) reported by female respondents (n = 268) to prospective mortality data and genealogies collected through a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Respondents often reported inaccurate lists of siblings. Additions to these lists were uncommon, but omissions were frequent: respondents omitted 3.8 % of their live sisters, 9.1 % of their deceased sisters, and 16.6 % of their sisters who had migrated out of the DSS area. Respondents underestimated the age at death of the siblings they reported during the interview, particularly among siblings who had died at older ages (≥45 years). Restricting SSH data to person-years and events having occurred during a recent reference period reduced list errors but not age and date errors. Overall, SSH data led to a 20 % underestimate of 45q15 relative to HDSS data. Our study suggests new quality improvement strategies for SSH data and demonstrates the potential use of HDSS data for the validation of “unconventional” demographic techniques. PMID:24493063

Reporting errors in siblings' survival histories and their impact on adult mortality estimates: results from a record linkage study in Senegal.

Science.gov (United States)

Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Kanté, Almamy M; Duthé, Géraldine; Andro, Armelle

2014-04-01

Estimates of adult mortality in countries with limited vital registration (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa) are often derived from information about the survival of a respondent's siblings. We evaluated the completeness and accuracy of such data through a record linkage study conducted in Bandafassi, located in southeastern Senegal. We linked at the individual level retrospective siblings' survival histories (SSH) reported by female respondents (n = 268) to prospective mortality data and genealogies collected through a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Respondents often reported inaccurate lists of siblings. Additions to these lists were uncommon, but omissions were frequent: respondents omitted 3.8 % of their live sisters, 9.1 % of their deceased sisters, and 16.6 % of their sisters who had migrated out of the DSS area. Respondents underestimated the age at death of the siblings they reported during the interview, particularly among siblings who had died at older ages (≥45 years). Restricting SSH data to person-years and events having occurred during a recent reference period reduced list errors but not age and date errors. Overall, SSH data led to a 20 % underestimate of 45 q 15 relative to HDSS data. Our study suggests new quality improvement strategies for SSH data and demonstrates the potential use of HDSS data for the validation of "unconventional" demographic techniques.

Conservation implications of ameliorating survival of little brown bats with white-nose syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Maslo, Brooke; Valent, Mick; Gumbs, John F; Frick, Winifred F

2015-10-01

Management of wildlife populations impacted by novel threats is often challenged by a lack of data on temporal changes in demographic response. Populations may suffer rapid declines from the introduction of new stressors, but how demography changes over time is critical to determining long-term outcomes for populations. White-nose syndrome (WNS), an infectious disease of hibernating bats, has caused massive and rapid population declines in several hibernating species of bats in North America since the disease was first observed on the continent in 2006. Estimating annual survival rates and demographic trends among remnant colonies of hibernating bats that experienced mass mortality from WNS is needed to determine long-term population viability of species impacted by this disease. Using mark-recapture data on infected little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus), we estimated the first apparent annual survival rates for four years following WNS detection at a site. We found strong support for an increasing trend in annual survival, which improved from 0.68 (95% CI = 0.44-0.85) to 0.75 (95% CI = 0.51-0.89) for males and 0.65 (95% CI = 0.44-0.81) to 0.70 (95% CI = 0.50-0.84) for females. These results suggest that stabilization at remnant colonies after mass mortality from WNS may be due to improved survival and not from immigration from other areas. Despite ameliorating survival, our stochastic matrix projection model predicts continued declines for little brown bat populations (λ = 0.95), raising concern for the regional persistence of this species. We conducted a vital rate sensitivity analysis and determined that adult and juvenile survival, as opposed to fecundity, are the demographic parameters most important to target to maximize recovery potential of little brown bat populations in areas impacted by WNS.

Chronic kidney disease in dogs in UK veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors, and survival.

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O'Neill, D G; Elliott, J; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

2013-01-01

The prevalence for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dogs varies widely (0.05-3.74%). Identified risk factors include advancing age, specific breeds, small body size, and periodontal disease. To estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors associated with CKD diagnosis and survival in dogs. Purebred dogs were hypothesized to have higher CKD risk and poorer survival characteristics than crossbred dogs. A merged clinical database of 107,214 dogs attending 89 UK veterinary practices over a 2-year period (January 2010-December 2011). A longitudinal study design estimated the apparent prevalence (AP) whereas the true prevalence (TP) was estimated using Bayesian analysis. A nested case-control study design evaluated risk factors. Survival analysis used the Kaplan-Meier survival curve method and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. The CKD AP was 0.21% (95% CI: 0.19-0.24%) and TP was 0.37% (95% posterior credibility interval 0.02-1.44%). Significant risk factors included increasing age, being insured, and certain breeds (Cocker Spaniel, Cavalier King Charles Spaniel). Cardiac disease was a significant comorbid disorder. Significant clinical signs included halitosis, weight loss, polyuria/polydipsia, urinary incontinence, vomiting, decreased appetite, lethargy, and diarrhea. The median survival time from diagnosis was 226 days (95% CI 112-326 days). International Renal Interest Society stage and blood urea nitrogen concentration at diagnosis were significantly associated with hazard of death due to CKD. Chronic kidney disease compromises dog welfare. Increased awareness of CKD risk factors and association of blood biochemistry results with survival time should facilitate diagnosis and optimize case management to improve animal survival and welfare. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Precision oncology in advanced cancer patients improves overall survival with lower weekly healthcare costs

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Haslem, Derrick S.; Chakravarty, Ingo; Fulde, Gail; Gilbert, Heather; Tudor, Brian P.; Lin, Karen; Ford, James M.; Nadauld, Lincoln D.

2018-01-01

The impact of precision oncology on guiding treatment decisions of late-stage cancer patients was previously studied in a retrospective analysis. However, the overall survival and costs were not previously evaluated. We report the overall survival and healthcare costs associated with precision oncology in these patients with advanced cancer. Building on a matched cohort study of 44 patients with metastatic cancer who received all of their care within a single institution, we evaluated the overall survival and healthcare costs for each patient. We analyzed the outcomes of 22 patients who received genomic testing and targeted therapy (precision oncology) between July 1, 2013 and January 31, 2015, and compared to 22 historically controlled patients (control) who received standard chemotherapy (N = 17) or best supportive care (N = 5). The median overall survival was 51.7 weeks for the targeted treatment group and 25.8 weeks for the control group (P = 0.008) when matching on age, gender, histological diagnosis and previous treatment lines. Average costs over the entire period were $2,720 per week for the targeted treatment group and $3,453 per week for the control group, (P = 0.036). A separate analysis of 1,814 patients with late-stage cancer diagnoses found that those who received a targeted cancer treatment (N = 93) had 6.9% lower costs in the last 3 months of life compared with those who did not. These findings suggest that precision oncology may improve overall survival for refractory cancer patients while lowering average per-week healthcare costs, resource utilization and end-of-life costs. PMID:29552312

The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia River. Volume 7: Monte-Carlo comparison of confidence internal procedures for estimating survival in a release-recapture study, with applications to Snake River salmonids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowther, A.B.; Skalski, J.

1996-06-01

Confidence intervals for survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities of migrating juvenile salmonids can be computed from the output of the SURPH software developed at the Center for Quantitative Science at the University of Washington. These intervals have been constructed using the estimate of the survival probability, its associated standard error, and assuming the estimate is normally distributed. In order to test the validity and performance of this procedure, two additional confidence interval procedures for estimating survival probabilities were tested and compared using simulated mark-recapture data. Intervals were constructed using normal probability theory, using a percentile-based empirical bootstrap algorithm, and using the profile likelihood concept. Performance of each method was assessed for a variety of initial conditions (release sizes, survival probabilities, detection probabilities). These initial conditions were chosen to encompass the range of parameter values seen in the 1993 and 1994 Snake River juvenile salmonid survival studies. The comparisons among the three estimation methods included average interval width, interval symmetry, and interval coverage

The Source Signature Estimator - System Improvements and Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sabel, Per; Brink, Mundy; Eidsvig, Seija; Jensen, Lars

1998-12-31

This presentation relates briefly to the first part of the joint project on post-survey analysis of shot-by-shot based source signature estimation. The improvements of a Source Signature Estimator system are analysed. The notional source method can give suboptimal results when not inputting the real array geometry, i.e. actual separations between the sub-arrays of an air gun array, to the notional source algorithm. This constraint has been addressed herein and was implemented for the first time in the field in summer 1997. The second part of this study will show the potential advantages for interpretation when the signature estimates are then to be applied in the data processing. 5 refs., 1 fig.

Whole brain radiotherapy for brain metastases from breast cancer: estimation of survival using two stratification systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viani, Gustavo A; Castilho, Marcus S; Salvajoli, João V; Pellizzon, Antonio Cassio A; Novaes, Paulo E; Guimarães, Flavio S; Conte, Maria A; Fogaroli, Ricardo C

2007-01-01

Brain metastases (BM) are the most common form of intracranial cancer. The incidence of BM seems to have increased over the past decade. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) of data from three Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) trials (1200 patients) has allowed three prognostic groups to be identified. More recently a simplified stratification system that uses the evaluation of three main prognostics factors for radiosurgery in BM was developed. To analyze the overall survival rate (OS), prognostic factors affecting outcomes and to estimate the potential improvement in OS for patients with BM from breast cancer, stratified by RPA class and brain metastases score (BS-BM). From January 1996 to December 2004, 174 medical records of patients with diagnosis of BM from breast cancer, who received WBRT were analyzed. The surgery followed by WBRT was used in 15.5% of patients and 84.5% of others patients were submitted at WBRT alone; 108 patients (62.1%) received the fractionation schedule of 30 Gy in 10 fractions. Solitary BM was present in 37.9 % of patients. The prognostic factors evaluated for OS were: age, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), number of lesions, localization of lesions, neurosurgery, chemotherapy, absence extracranial disease, RPA class, BS-BM and radiation doses and fractionation. The OS in 1, 2 and 3 years was 33.4 %, 16.7%, and 8.8 %, respectively. The RPA class analysis showed strong relation with OS (p < 0.0001). The median survival time by RPA class in months was: class I 11.7, class II 6.2 and class III 3.0. The significant prognostic factors associated with better OS were: higher KPS (p < 0.0001), neurosurgery (P < 0.0001), single metastases (p = 0.003), BS-BM (p < 0.0001), control primary tumor (p = 0.002) and absence of extracranial metastases (p = 0.001). In multivariate analysis, the factors associated positively with OS were: neurosurgery (p < 0.0001), absence of extracranial metastases (p <0.0001) and RPA class I (p < 0.0001). Our

Genetic algorithm-based improved DOA estimation using fourth-order cumulants

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Ahmed, Ammar; Tufail, Muhammad

2017-05-01

Genetic algorithm (GA)-based direction of arrival (DOA) estimation is proposed using fourth-order cumulants (FOC) and ESPRIT principle which results in Multiple Invariance Cumulant ESPRIT algorithm. In the existing FOC ESPRIT formulations, only one invariance is utilised to estimate DOAs. The unused multiple invariances (MIs) must be exploited simultaneously in order to improve the estimation accuracy. In this paper, a fitness function based on a carefully designed cumulant matrix is developed which incorporates MIs present in the sensor array. Better DOA estimation can be achieved by minimising this fitness function. Moreover, the effectiveness of Newton's method as well as GA for this optimisation problem has been illustrated. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm provides improved estimation accuracy compared to existing algorithms, especially in the case of low SNR, less number of snapshots, closely spaced sources and high signal and noise correlation. Moreover, it is observed that the optimisation using Newton's method is more likely to converge to false local optima resulting in erroneous results. However, GA-based optimisation has been found attractive due to its global optimisation capability.

The Evaluation of More Lymph Nodes in Colon Cancer Is Associated with Improved Survival in Patients of All Ages.

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Wouter B Aan de Stegge

Full Text Available Improvement in survival of patients with colon cancer is reduced in elderly patients compared to younger patients. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the removal of ≥ 12 lymph nodes can explain differences in survival rates between elderly and younger patients diagnosed with colon cancer.In a population-based cohort study, all patients (N = 41,074 diagnosed with colon cancer stage I to III from 2003 through 2010 from the Netherlands Cancer Registry were included. Age groups were defined as 75 years of age. Main outcome measures were overall and relative survival, the latter as a proxy for disease specific survival.Over an eight years time period there was a 41.2% increase in patients with ≥ 12 lymph nodes removed, whereas the percentage of patients with the presence of lymph node metastases remained stable (35.7% to 37.5%. After adjustment for patient and tumour characteristics and adjuvant chemotherapy, it was found that for patients in which ≥ 12 lymph nodes were removed compared to patients with 75: HR: 0.734 (95% CI, 0.700-0.771 and relative survival ( 75: RER: 0.621 (95% CI, 0.567-0.681 in all three age groups.The removal of ≥ 12 lymph nodes is associated with an improvement in both overall and relative survival in all patients. This association was stronger in the elderly patient. The biology of this association needs further clarification.

Long-term survival in advanced melanoma patients using repeated therapies: successive immunomodulation improving the odds?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coventry, Brendon J; Baume, Dominique; Lilly, Carrie

2015-01-01

. Even with recent therapies, the factors for improved survival remain enigmatic; however, one apparent common denominator in most cases was the persistent use of repeated therapies to reduce tumor bulk, induce tumor necrosis, and/or cause immunostimulation. These cases are instructive, suggesting manipulation of an established, endogenous, existing immune response. These observations provide practical evidence that the course for any patient with advanced melanoma at the outset should be considered unpredictable, open to immunomanipulation, and thus not uniformly fatal. The findings were compared and interpreted with reported newer immunotherapeutic approaches

SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND LENGTH-BIASED SAMPLING

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Masoud Asgharian

2010-12-01

Full Text Available When survival data are colleted as part of a prevalent cohort study, the recruited cases have already experienced their initiating event. These prevalent cases are then followed for a fixed period of time at the end of which the subjects will either have failed or have been censored. When interests lies in estimating the survival distribution, from onset, of subjects with the disease, one must take into account that the survival times of the cases in a prevalent cohort study are left truncated. When it is possible to assume that there has not been any epidemic of the disease over the past period of time that covers the onset times of the subjects, one may assume that the underlying incidence process that generates the initiating event times is a stationary Poisson process. Under such assumption, the survival times of the recruited subjects are called “lengthbiased”. I discuss the challenges one is faced with in analyzing these type of data. To address the theoretical aspects of the work, I present asymptotic results for the NPMLE of the length-biased as well as the unbiased survival distribution. I also discuss estimating the unbiased survival function using only the follow-up time. This addresses the case that the onset times are either unknown or known with uncertainty. Some of our most recent work and open questions will be presented. These include some aspects of analysis of covariates, strong approximation, functional LIL and density estimation under length-biased sampling with right censoring. The results will be illustrated with survival data from patients with dementia, collected as part of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA.

Applied survival analysis using R

CERN Document Server

Moore, Dirk F

2016-01-01

Applied Survival Analysis Using R covers the main principles of survival analysis, gives examples of how it is applied, and teaches how to put those principles to use to analyze data using R as a vehicle. Survival data, where the primary outcome is time to a specific event, arise in many areas of biomedical research, including clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and studies of animals. Many survival methods are extensions of techniques used in linear regression and categorical data, while other aspects of this field are unique to survival data. This text employs numerous actual examples to illustrate survival curve estimation, comparison of survivals of different groups, proper accounting for censoring and truncation, model variable selection, and residual analysis. Because explaining survival analysis requires more advanced mathematics than many other statistical topics, this book is organized with basic concepts and most frequently used procedures covered in earlier chapters, with more advanced topics...

ESC guidelines adherence is associated with improved survival in patients from the Norwegian Heart Failure Registry.

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De Blois, Jonathan; Fagerland, Morten Wang; Grundtvig, Morten; Semb, Anne Grete; Gullestad, Lars; Westheim, Arne; Hole, Torstein; Atar, Dan; Agewall, Stefan

2015-01-01

To assess the adherence to heart failure (HF) guidelines for angiotensin-converting enzyme-I (ACE-I), angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB), and β-blockers and the possible association of ACE-I or ARB, β-blockers, and statins with survival in the large contemporary Norwegian Heart Failure Registry. The study included 5761 outpatients who were diagnosed with HF of any aetiology (mean left ventricular ejection fraction 32% ± 11%) from January 2000 to January 2010 and followed up until death or February 2010. Adherence to treatment according to the guidelines was high. Cox regression analysis to identify risk factors for all-cause mortality, after adjustment for many factors, showed that ACE-I ≥ 50% of target dose, use of beta-blockers, and statins were significantly related to improved survival (P = 0.003, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001, respectively). Propensity scoring showed the same benefit for these variables. Both multivariable and propensity scoring analyses showed survival benefits with β-blockers, statins, and adequate doses of ACE-I in this contemporary HF cohort. This study stresses the importance of guidelines adherence, even in the context of high levels of adherence to guidelines. Moreover, respecting the recommended target doses of ACE-I appears to have a crucial role in survival improvement and, in the multivariate Cox regression analysis, ARB treatment was not significantly associated with a lower all-cause mortality. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. ©The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Exarchakou, Aimilia; Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

2018-03-14

To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Population based cohort study. England. More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Improved Sparse Channel Estimation for Cooperative Communication Systems

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Guan Gui

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate channel state information (CSI is necessary at receiver for coherent detection in amplify-and-forward (AF cooperative communication systems. To estimate the channel, traditional methods, that is, least squares (LS and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO, are based on assumptions of either dense channel or global sparse channel. However, LS-based linear method neglects the inherent sparse structure information while LASSO-based sparse channel method cannot take full advantage of the prior information. Based on the partial sparse assumption of the cooperative channel model, we propose an improved channel estimation method with partial sparse constraint. At first, by using sparse decomposition theory, channel estimation is formulated as a compressive sensing problem. Secondly, the cooperative channel is reconstructed by LASSO with partial sparse constraint. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to confirm the superiority of proposed methods over global sparse channel estimation methods.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty.

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Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B; Van den Brink, Paul J; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I; Preuss, Thomas G

2016-07-06

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

Does chemotherapy improve survival in high-risk stage I and II Merkel cell carcinoma of the skin?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poulsen, Michael G.; Rischin, Danny; Porter, Ian; Walpole, Euan; Harvey, Jennifer; Hamilton, Chris; Keller, Jacqui; Tripcony, Lee

2006-01-01

Purpose: The effectiveness of synchronous carboplatin, etoposide, and radiation therapy in improving survival was evaluated by comparison of a matched set of historic control subjects with patients treated in a prospective Phase II study that used synchronous chemotherapy and radiation and adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients and Methods: Patients were included in the analysis if they had disease localized to the primary site and nodes, and they were required to have at least one of the following high-risk features: recurrence after initial therapy, involved nodes, primary size greater than 1 cm, or gross residual disease after surgery. All patients who received chemotherapy were treated in a standardized fashion as part of a Phase II study (Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group TROG 96:07) from 1997 to 2001. Radiation was delivered to the primary site and nodes to a dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks, and synchronous carboplatin (AUC 4.5) and etoposide, 80 mg/m 2 i.v. on Days 1 to 3, were given in Weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10. The historic group represents a single institution's experience from 1988 to 1996 and was treated with surgery and radiation alone, and patients were included if they fulfilled the eligibility criteria of TROG 96:07. Patients with occult cutaneous disease were not included for the purpose of this analysis. Because of imbalances in the prognostic variables between the two treatment groups, comparisons were made by application of Cox's proportional hazard modeling. Overall survival, disease-specific survival, locoregional control, and distant control were used as endpoints for the study. Results: Of the 102 patients who had high-risk Stage I and II disease, 40 were treated with chemotherapy (TROG 96:07) and 62 were treated without chemotherapy (historic control subjects). When Cox's proportional hazards modeling was applied, the only significant factors for overall survival were recurrent disease, age, and the presence of residual disease. For

Long-term survival in advanced melanoma patients using repeated therapies: successive immunomodulation improving the odds?

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Coventry BJ

2015-04-01

had died. Published studies of melanoma therapies were tabled for comparison. Conclusion: The fact that 18 cases of exceptional survival in advanced melanoma were identified is remarkable in itself. Even with recent therapies, the factors for improved survival remain enigmatic; however, one apparent common denominator in most cases was the persistent use of repeated therapies to reduce tumor bulk, induce tumor necrosis, and/or cause immunostimulation. These cases are instructive, suggesting manipulation of an established, endogenous, existing immune response. These observations provide practical evidence that the course for any patient with advanced melanoma at the outset should be considered unpredictable, open to immunomanipulation, and thus not uniformly fatal. The findings were compared and interpreted with reported newer immunotherapeutic approaches. Keywords: advanced melanoma, clinical responses, immunotherapy, prolonged survival

Survival of adult martens in Northern Wisconsin

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholas P. McCann; Patrick A. Zollner; Jonathan H. Gilbert

2010-01-01

Low adult marten (Martes americana) survival may be one factor limiting their population growth >30 yr after their reintroduction in Wisconsin, USA. We estimated annual adult marten survival at 0.81 in northern Wisconsin, with lower survival during winter (0.87) than summer-fall (1.00). Fisher (Martes pennanti) and raptor kills...

 Alkaline phosphatase normalization is a biomarker of improved survival in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilscher, Moira; Enders, Felicity B; Carey, Elizabeth J; Lindor, Keith D; Tabibian, James H

2016-01-01

 Introduction. Recent studies suggest that serum alkaline phosphatase may represent a prognostic biomarker in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis. However, this association remains poorly understood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance and clinical correlates of alkaline phosphatase normalization in primary sclerosing cholangitis. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with a new diagnosis of primary sclerosing cholangitis made at an academic medical center. The primary endpoint was time to hepatobiliaryneoplasia, liver transplantation, or liver-related death. Secondary endpoints included occurrence of and time to alkaline phosphatase normalization. Patients who did and did not achieve normalization were compared with respect to clinical characteristics and endpoint-free survival, and the association between normalization and the primary endpoint was assessed with univariate and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards analyses. Eighty six patients were included in the study, with a total of 755 patient-years of follow-up. Thirty-eight patients (44%) experienced alkaline phosphatase normalization within 12 months of diagnosis. Alkaline phosphatase normalization was associated with longer primary endpoint-free survival (p = 0.0032) and decreased risk of requiring liver transplantation (p = 0.033). Persistent normalization was associated with even fewer adverse endpoints as well as longer survival. In multivariate analyses, alkaline phosphatase normalization (adjusted hazard ratio 0.21, p = 0.012) and baseline bilirubin (adjusted hazard ratio 4.87, p = 0.029) were the only significant predictors of primary endpoint-free survival. Alkaline phosphatase normalization, particularly if persistent, represents a robust biomarker of improved long-term survival and decreased risk of requiring liver transplantation in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia Basin. Volume 2: Estimating salmonid survival with combined PIT-CWT tagging. Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newman, K.

1997-06-01

Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags and Coded Wire Tags (CWTs) in combination can provide information about salmonid survival that single tag releases may not. The release and recapture protocol affects which survival and recapture rates can be estimated and the precision of the estimates. For the particular case of Columbia river salmonids tagged with both PIT tags and CWTs, three different release and recapture protocols were evaluated. This report addresses the need to study the fate of salmon smolt in-river and their subsequent return as adults. Double-tagging procedures are investigated where PIT-tags would be used to provide in-river survival data during smolt outmigrations and coded-wire tags (CWT) used to provide adult return information. This report provides statistical models for the analysis of the joint data as well as recommendations on optimal tagging studies. Study costs and stress on smolt can be reduced by only PIT-tagging a subset of all the fish coded-wire-tagged, while retaining the information content and sampling precision

Improved dose estimates for nuclear criticality accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkinson, A.D.; Basoglu, B.; Bentley, C.L.; Dunn, M.E.; Plaster, M.J.; Dodds, H.L.; Yamamoto, T.

1995-01-01

Slide rules are improved for estimating doses and dose rates resulting from nuclear criticality accidents. The original slide rules were created for highly enriched uranium solutions and metals using hand calculations along with the decades old Way-Wigner radioactive decay relationship and the inverse square law. This work uses state-of-the-art methods and better data to improve the original slide rules and also to extend the slide rule concept to three additional systems; i.e., highly enriched (93.2 wt%) uranium damp (H/ 235 U = 10) powder (U 3 O 8 ) and low-enriched (5 wt%) uranium mixtures (UO 2 F 2 ) with a H/ 235 U ratio of 200 and 500. Although the improved slide rules differ only slightly from the original slide rules, the improved slide rules and also the new slide rules can be used with greater confidence since they are based on more rigorous methods and better nuclear data

Modified Weighted Kaplan-Meier Estimator

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Mohammad Shafiq

2007-01-01

Full Text Available In many medical studies majority of the study subjects do not reach to the event of interest during the study period. In such situations survival probabilities can be estimated for censored observation by Kaplan Meier estimator. However in case of heavy censoring these estimates are biased and over estimate the survival probabilities. For heavy censoring a new method was proposed (Bahrawar Jan, 2005 to estimate the survival probabilities by weighting the censored observations by non-censoring rate. But the main defect in this weighted method is that it gives zero weight to the last censored observation. To over come this difficulty a new weight is proposed which also gives a non-zero weight to the last censored observation.

Anti-inflammatory thalidomide improves islet grafts survival and functions in a xenogenic environment.

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Chunguang Chen

Full Text Available Thalidomide possesses both anti-inflammatory and anti-angiogenic properties. This study investigates its potential application in islet transplantation with a xenogenic transplantation model. Transplantation was performed using C57Bl/6 mice and NMRI nu/nu mice as recipients of porcine islets. Moreover, islet graft vasculature and inflammation were investigated to identify the mechanisms of thalidomide action. In the immunocompetent environment of C57Bl/6 mice, a fast graft rejection was observed. The group treated with thalidomide 200 mg/kg BW per day achieved and maintained euglycemia in the complete observation period for 42 days. The treated mice had more functional islet graft mass with less leukocyte infiltration. The pro-inflammatory TNF-alpha and VEGF content in islet grafted kidneys was significantly lowered by the treatment. By comparison, thalidomide was not effective in improving graft survival in immunocompromised nude mice. It strongly inhibited the VEGF and TNF-alpha-induced endothelial proliferation of isolated pig islets in a dose dependent manner. The magnitude of thalidomide's inhibitory effect was nearly identical to the effect of VEGF- receptor 2 inhibitor SU416 and anti-TNF-receptor 1 neutralizing antibody, and was reversed by sphingosine-1-phosphate. In conclusion, the anti-inflammatory effect of thalidomide improved islet graft survival and function in a transplantation model with a maximum immune barrier.

Adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with improved survival in patients with stage II colon cancer.

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Casadaban, Leigh; Rauscher, Garth; Aklilu, Mebea; Villenes, Dana; Freels, Sally; Maker, Ajay V

2016-11-15

The role of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer remains to be elucidated and its use varies between patients and institutions. Currently, clinical guidelines suggest discussing adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with high-risk stage II disease in the absence of conclusive randomized controlled trial data. To further investigate this relationship, the objective of the current study was to determine whether an association exists between overall survival (OS) and adjuvant chemotherapy in patients stratified by age and pathological risk features. Data from the National Cancer Data Base were analyzed for demographics, tumor characteristics, management, and survival of patients with stage II colon cancer who were diagnosed from 1998 to 2006 with survival information through 2011. Pearson Chi-square tests and binary logistic regression were used to analyze disease and demographic data. Survival analysis was performed with the log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. Propensity score weighting was used to match cohorts. Among 153,110 patients with stage II colon cancer, predictors of receiving chemotherapy included age clinically relevant OS was associated with the receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy in all patient subgroups regardless of high-risk tumor pathologic features (poor or undifferentiated histology, colon cancer evaluated to date, improved OS was found to be associated with adjuvant chemotherapy regardless of treatment regimen, patient age, or high-risk pathologic risk features. Cancer 2016;122:3277-3287. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Significant survival improvement of patients with recurrent breast cancer in the periods 2001-2008 vs. 1992-2000

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Nishimura Sumiko

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is unclear whether individualized treatments based on biological factors have improved the prognosis of recurrent breast cancer. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the survival improvement of patients with recurrent breast cancer after the introduction of third generation aromatase inhibitors (AIs and trastuzumab. Methods A total of 407 patients who received first diagnosis of recurrent breast cancer and treatment at National Kyushu Cancer Center between 1992 and 2008 were retrospectively evaluated. As AIs and trastuzumab were approved for clinical use in Japan in 2001, the patients were divided into two time cohorts depending on whether the cancer recurred before or after 2001. Cohort A: 170 patients who were diagnosed between 1992 and 2000. Cohort B: 237 patients who were diagnosed between 2001 and 2008. Tumor characteristics, treatments, and outcome were compared. Results Fourteen percent of cohort A and 76% of cohort B received AIs and/or trastuzumab (P Conclusions The prognosis of patients with recurrent breast cancer was improved over time following the introduction of AIs and trastuzumab and the survival improvement was apparent in HR- and/or HER-2-positive tumors.

Status after 5 Years of Survival Compliance Testing in the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS)

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Skalski, John R.; Weiland, Mark A.; Ham, Kenneth D.; Ploskey, Gene R.; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Colotelo, Alison H.; Carlson, Thomas J.; Woodley, Christa M.; Eppard, M. Brad; Hockersmith, Eric E.

2016-06-27

Survival studies of juvenile salmonids implanted with acoustic tags have been conducted at hydroelectric dams within the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) in the Columbia and Snake rivers between 2010 and 2014 to assess compliance with dam passage survival standards stipulated in the 2008 Biological Opinion (BiOp). For juvenile salmonids migrating downstream in the spring, dam passage survival defined as survival from the upstream dam face to the tailrace mixing zone must be ≥96% and for summer migrants, ≥93%, and estimated with a standard error ≤1.5% (i.e., 95% confidence interval of ±3%). A total of 29 compliance tests have been conducted at 6 of 8 FCRPS main-stem dams, using over 109,000 acoustic-tagged salmonid smolts. Of these 29 compliance studies, 23 met the survival standards and 26 met the precision requirements. Of the 6 dams evaluated to date, individual survival estimates range from 0.9597 to 0.9868 for yearling Chinook Salmon, 0.9534 to 0.9952 for steelhead, and 0.9076 to 0.9789 for subyearling Chinook Salmon. These investigations suggest the large capital investment over the last 20 years to improve juvenile salmon passage through the FCRPS dams has been beneficial.

Poor survival of treatment-related acute nonlymphocytic leukemia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neugut, A.I.; Nieves, J.; Murray, T.; Tsai, Weiyann; Robinson, E.

1990-01-01

Population-based data on more than 1 million patients registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results Program of the National Cancer Institute, 1973-1984, were analyzed to determine the survival of patients with de novo acute nonlymphocytic leukemia (ANLL) and following a first primary tumor treated (with chemotherapy and/or radiation therapy) or untreated. Cases that occurred within 12 months of the first malignant neoplasm were excluded. Survival was estimated using Cox proportional-hazards modeling, with age, sex, and specific type of ANLL as covariates. The 6,271 patients with de novo ANLL had an estimated 12-month survival of 30%, while the 107 patients with treatment-related ANLL had an estimated 12-month survival of 10%. The authors conclude that ANLL that occurs after chemotherapy or radiation therapy is biologically more aggressive and/or resistant to therapy than spontaneous ANLL. This provides a rationale for current studies on treatment-induced cellular changes and on more aggressive therapy for these patients

Improved survival of macroencapsulated islets of Langerhans by preimplantation of the immunoisolating device: a morphometric study.

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Rafael, E; Wu, G S; Hultenby, K; Tibell, A; Wernerson, A

2003-01-01

Encapsulation of cells in a semipermeable membrane may in the future provide an opportunity to treat a variety of endocrine and neurological disorders, without the need for lifelong immunosuppression. The physiological conditions in the device are crucial factors for graft survival. Previously, we have shown that the exchange across the immunoisolating membrane and the microcirculation around the TheraCyte device increase around 3 months after implantation. The aim of this study was to determine whether preimplantation of the TheraCyte device would improve the survival of a later transplanted islet graft. A TheraCyte device was implanted SC on one side of the back of a nondiabetic SD rat. After 3 months, 1500 islets isolated from SD rats were transplanted via the device port. At the same time, another device, loaded with the same number of islets, was implanted on the other side of the back. Both devices were explanted 2 weeks after islet transplantation (i.e., 3.5 months and 0.5 month after device implantation, respectively). Six pairs of devices were evaluated by morphometery. The volume densities of viable islets were 0.22 +/- 0.04 in the preimplanted device vs. 0.06 +/- 0.03 in the nonpreimplanted one (p TheraCyte device seems to improve the survival of an encapsulated islet graft and reduce fibroblast outgrowth in the device.

A bias correction for covariance estimators to improve inference with generalized estimating equations that use an unstructured correlation matrix.

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Westgate, Philip M

2013-07-20

Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) are routinely used for the marginal analysis of correlated data. The efficiency of GEE depends on how closely the working covariance structure resembles the true structure, and therefore accurate modeling of the working correlation of the data is important. A popular approach is the use of an unstructured working correlation matrix, as it is not as restrictive as simpler structures such as exchangeable and AR-1 and thus can theoretically improve efficiency. However, because of the potential for having to estimate a large number of correlation parameters, variances of regression parameter estimates can be larger than theoretically expected when utilizing the unstructured working correlation matrix. Therefore, standard error estimates can be negatively biased. To account for this additional finite-sample variability, we derive a bias correction that can be applied to typical estimators of the covariance matrix of parameter estimates. Via simulation and in application to a longitudinal study, we show that our proposed correction improves standard error estimation and statistical inference. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Improving the accuracy of livestock distribution estimates through spatial interpolation.

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Bryssinckx, Ward; Ducheyne, Els; Muhwezi, Bernard; Godfrey, Sunday; Mintiens, Koen; Leirs, Herwig; Hendrickx, Guy

2012-11-01

Animal distribution maps serve many purposes such as estimating transmission risk of zoonotic pathogens to both animals and humans. The reliability and usability of such maps is highly dependent on the quality of the input data. However, decisions on how to perform livestock surveys are often based on previous work without considering possible consequences. A better understanding of the impact of using different sample designs and processing steps on the accuracy of livestock distribution estimates was acquired through iterative experiments using detailed survey. The importance of sample size, sample design and aggregation is demonstrated and spatial interpolation is presented as a potential way to improve cattle number estimates. As expected, results show that an increasing sample size increased the precision of cattle number estimates but these improvements were mainly seen when the initial sample size was relatively low (e.g. a median relative error decrease of 0.04% per sampled parish for sample sizes below 500 parishes). For higher sample sizes, the added value of further increasing the number of samples declined rapidly (e.g. a median relative error decrease of 0.01% per sampled parish for sample sizes above 500 parishes. When a two-stage stratified sample design was applied to yield more evenly distributed samples, accuracy levels were higher for low sample densities and stabilised at lower sample sizes compared to one-stage stratified sampling. Aggregating the resulting cattle number estimates yielded significantly more accurate results because of averaging under- and over-estimates (e.g. when aggregating cattle number estimates from subcounty to district level, P interpolation to fill in missing values in non-sampled areas, accuracy is improved remarkably. This counts especially for low sample sizes and spatially even distributed samples (e.g. P <0.001 for a sample of 170 parishes using one-stage stratified sampling and aggregation on district level

Improvement of Source Number Estimation Method for Single Channel Signal.

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Zhi Dong

Full Text Available Source number estimation methods for single channel signal have been investigated and the improvements for each method are suggested in this work. Firstly, the single channel data is converted to multi-channel form by delay process. Then, algorithms used in the array signal processing, such as Gerschgorin's disk estimation (GDE and minimum description length (MDL, are introduced to estimate the source number of the received signal. The previous results have shown that the MDL based on information theoretic criteria (ITC obtains a superior performance than GDE at low SNR. However it has no ability to handle the signals containing colored noise. On the contrary, the GDE method can eliminate the influence of colored noise. Nevertheless, its performance at low SNR is not satisfactory. In order to solve these problems and contradictions, the work makes remarkable improvements on these two methods on account of the above consideration. A diagonal loading technique is employed to ameliorate the MDL method and a jackknife technique is referenced to optimize the data covariance matrix in order to improve the performance of the GDE method. The results of simulation have illustrated that the performance of original methods have been promoted largely.

Improved Motion Estimation Using Early Zero-Block Detection

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Y. Lin

2008-07-01

Full Text Available We incorporate the early zero-block detection technique into the UMHexagonS algorithm, which has already been adopted in H.264/AVC JM reference software, to speed up the motion estimation process. A nearly sufficient condition is derived for early zero-block detection. Although the conventional early zero-block detection method can achieve significant improvement in computation reduction, the PSNR loss, to whatever extent, is not negligible especially for high quantization parameter (QP or low bit-rate coding. This paper modifies the UMHexagonS algorithm with the early zero-block detection technique to improve its coding performance. The experimental results reveal that the improved UMHexagonS algorithm greatly reduces computation while maintaining very high coding efficiency.

An Improved BeiDou-2 Satellite-Induced Code Bias Estimation Method

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Jingyang Fu

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Different from GPS, GLONASS, GALILEO and BeiDou-3, it is confirmed that the code multipath bias (CMB, which originate from the satellite end and can be over 1 m, are commonly found in the code observations of BeiDou-2 (BDS IGSO and MEO satellites. In order to mitigate their adverse effects on absolute precise applications which use the code measurements, we propose in this paper an improved correction model to estimate the CMB. Different from the traditional model which considering the correction values are orbit-type dependent (estimating two sets of values for IGSO and MEO, respectively and modeling the CMB as a piecewise linear function with a elevation node separation of 10°, we estimate the corrections for each BDS IGSO + MEO satellite on one hand, and a denser elevation node separation of 5° is used to model the CMB variations on the other hand. Currently, the institutions such as IGS-MGEX operate over 120 stations which providing the daily BDS observations. These large amounts of data provide adequate support to refine the CMB estimation satellite by satellite in our improved model. One month BDS observations from MGEX are used for assessing the performance of the improved CMB model by means of precise point positioning (PPP. Experimental results show that for the satellites on the same orbit type, obvious differences can be found in the CMB at the same node and frequency. Results show that the new correction model can improve the wide-lane (WL ambiguity usage rate for WL fractional cycle bias estimation, shorten the WL and narrow-lane (NL time to first fix (TTFF in PPP ambiguity resolution (AR as well as improve the PPP positioning accuracy. With our improved correction model, the usage of WL ambiguity is increased from 94.1% to 96.0%, the WL and NL TTFF of PPP AR is shorten from 10.6 to 9.3 min, 67.9 to 63.3 min, respectively, compared with the traditional correction model. In addition, both the traditional and improved CMB model have

Exogenous Catalase and Pyruvate Dehydrogenase Improve Survival and Regeneration and Affect Oxidative Stress in Cryopreserved Dendrobium nobile Protocorm-like Bodies.

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Di, W; Jia, M X; Xu, J; Li, B L; Liu, Y

Reactive oxygen species (ROS)-induced oxidative damage is responsible for viability loss in plant tissues following cryopreservation. Antioxidants may improve viability by preventing or repairing the injury. This work aimed at studying the effect of catalase (CAT) and pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH), which are involved in ROS metabolism and are differentially expressed during pollen cryopreservation, for cryopreservation of Dendrobium nobile Lindl. 'Hamana Lake Dream' protocorm-like bodies (PLBs). Different concentrations of exogenous CAT or PDH were added at the loading, PVS2 treatment, unloading steps during vitrification-cryopreservation of PLBs. Their survival and regeneration were evaluated and correlated with physiological oxidative indexes. PLB survival increased significantly when CAT and PDH were added separately to the unloading solution at a suitable concentration. CAT at 400 U·ml -1 increased PLB survival and regeneration by 33.5 and 14.6 percent respectively. It had no impact on the production of superoxide anion radical (·O2-) and on superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, but it reduced the hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) and malondialdehyde (MDA) contents and enhanced ascorbic acid (AsA) and endogenous CAT levels compared to PLBs cryopreserved using the standard vitrification protocol (CK1). PDH at 0.1 U·ml -1 significantly improved PLB survival (by 2.5 percent), but it had no marked effect on regeneration compared to the CK1 group. It induced the same variations in ·O2-, AsA and endogenous CAT levels that were observed following CAT addition. However, PDH did not affect the H 2 O 2 and MDA content but significantly increased SOD activity. These results indicate that the addition of 400 U·ml -1 CAT and 0.1 U·ml -1 PDH at the unloading step increased survival of cryopreserved PLBs and that this improvement was associated with scavenging of H 2 O 2 and the repair of oxidative damage. Exogenous CAT also significantly improved PLB regeneration after

The Influence of Tag Presence on the Mortality of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Exposed to Simulated Hydroturbine Passage: Implications for Survival Estimates and Management of Hydroelectric Facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlson, Thomas J.; Brown, Richard S.; Stephenson, John R.; Pflugrath, Brett D.; Colotelo, Alison HA; Gingerich, Andrew J.; Benjamin, Piper L.; Langeslay, Mike; Ahmann, Martin L.; Johnson, Robert L.; Skalski, John R.; Seaburg, Adam; Townsend, Richard L.

2012-05-01

Each year, millions of fish have telemetry tags (acoustic, radio, inductive) surgically implanted to assess their passage and survival through hydropower facilities. One route of passage of particular concern is through hydro turbines, in which fish may be exposed to a range of potential injuries, including barotraumas from rapid decompression. The change in pressure from acclimation to exposure (nadir) has been found to be an important factor in predicting the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon undergoing rapid decompression associated with simulated turbine passage. The presence of telemetry tags has also been shown to influence the likelihood of injury and mortality for juvenile Chinook salmon. This research investigated the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon carrying telemetry tags and exposed to a range of simulated turbine passage. Several factors were examined as predictors of mortal injury for fish undergoing rapid decompression, and the ratio of pressure change and tag burden were determined to be the most predictive factors. As the ratio of pressure change and tag burden increase, the likelihood of mortal injury also increases. The results of this study suggest that previous survival estimates of juvenile Chinook salmon passing through hydro turbines may have been biased due to the presence of telemetry tags, and this has direct implications to the management of hydroelectric facilities. Realistic examples indicate how the bias in turbine passage survival estimates could be 20% or higher, depending on the mass of the implanted tags and the ratio of acclimation to exposure pressures. Bias would increase as the tag burden and pressure ratio increase, and have direct implications on survival estimates. It is recommended that future survival studies use the smallest telemetry tags possible to minimize the potential bias that may be associated with carrying the tag.

Option A Improved HIV-free Infant Survival and Mother to Child HIV Transmission at 9–18 Months in Zimbabwe

Science.gov (United States)

BUZDUGAN, Raluca; KANG DUFOUR, Mi-Suk; MCCOY, Sandra I; WATADZAUSHE, Constancia; DIRAWO, Jeffrey; MUSHAVI, Angela; MUJURU, Hilda Angela; MAHOMVA, Agnes; KANGWENDE, Rugare Abigail; HAKOBYAN, Anna; MUGURUNGI, Owen; COWAN, Frances M; PADIAN, Nancy S

2016-01-01

Objective We evaluated the impact of Option A on HIV-free infant survival and mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) in Zimbabwe. Design Serial cross-sectional community-based serosurveys. Methods We analyzed serosurvey data collected in 2012 and 2014 among mother-infant pairs from catchment areas (CAs) of 132 health facilities from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Eligible infants (alive or deceased) were born 9–18 months before each survey to mothers ≥16 years old. We randomly selected mother-infant pairs and conducted questionnaires, verbal autopsies and collected blood samples. We estimated: 1) the HIV-free infant survival and MTCT rate within each CA and compared the 2012 and 2014 estimates using a paired t-test, 2) number of HIV infections averted due to the intervention. Results We analyzed 7,249 mother-infant pairs with viable maternal specimens collected in 2012 and 8,551 in 2014. The mean difference in the CA-level MTCT between 2014 and 2012 was −5.2 percentage points (95% confidence interval (CI)=−8.1, −2.3, pOption A regimen. The association between HIV-free infant survival and duration of Option A implementation was not significant at the multivariate level (p=0.093). Conclusions We found a substantial and statistically significant increase in HIV-free survival and decrease in MTCT among infants aged 9–18 months following Option A rollout in Zimbabwe. This is the only impact evaluation of Option A and shows the effectiveness of Option A and Zimbabwe’s remarkable progress towards eMTCT. PMID:27058354

Role of Intra-operative MRI (iMRI) in Improving Extent of Resection and Survival in Patients with Glioblastoma Multiforme.

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Khan, Inamullah; Waqas, Muhammad; Shamim, Muhammad Shahzad

2017-07-01

Multiple intraoperative aids have been introduced to improve the extent of resection (EOR) in Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) patients, avoiding any new neurological deficits. Intraoperative MRI (iMRI) has been debated for its utility and cost for nearly two decades in neurosurgical literature. Review of literature suggests improved EOR in GBM patients who underwent iMRI assisted surgical resections leading to higher overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). iMRI provides real time intraoperative imaging with reasonable quality. Higher risk for new postoperative deficits with increased EOR is not reported in any study using iMRI. The level of evidence regarding prognostic benefits of iMRI is still of low quality..

Systematic review of survival time in experimental mouse stroke with impact on reliability of infarct estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klarskov, Carina Kirstine; Klarskov, Mikkel Buster; Hasseldam, Henrik

2016-01-01

infarcts with more substantial edema. Purpose: This paper will give an overview of previous studies of experimental mouse stroke, and correlate survival time to peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, investigations of whether the included studies corrected the infarct measurements for edema...... of reasons for the translational problems from mouse experimental stroke to clinical trials probably exists, including infarct size estimations around the peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, edema is a more prominent feature of stroke in mice than in humans, because of the tendency to produce larger...... of the investigated process. Our findings indicate a need for more research in this area, and establishment of common correction methodology....

Sodium nitroprusside enhanced cardiopulmonary resuscitation improves short term survival in a porcine model of ischemic refractory ventricular fibrillation.

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Yannopoulos, Demetris; Bartos, Jason A; George, Stephen A; Sideris, George; Voicu, Sebastian; Oestreich, Brett; Matsuura, Timothy; Shekar, Kadambari; Rees, Jennifer; Aufderheide, Tom P

2017-01-01

Sodium nitroprusside (SNP) enhanced CPR (SNPeCPR) demonstrates increased vital organ blood flow and survival in multiple porcine models. We developed a new, coronary occlusion/ischemia model of prolonged resuscitation, mimicking the majority of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests presenting with shockable rhythms. SNPeCPR will increase short term (4-h) survival compared to standard 2015 Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) guidelines in an ischemic refractory ventricular fibrillation (VF), prolonged CPR model. Sixteen anesthetized pigs had the ostial left anterior descending artery occluded leading to ischemic VF arrest. VF was untreated for 5min. Basic life support was performed for 10min. At minute 10 (EMS arrival), animals received either SNPeCPR (n=8) or standard ACLS (n=8). Defibrillation (200J) occurred every 3min. CPR continued for a total of 45min, then the balloon was deflated simulating revascularization. CPR continued until return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) or a total of 60min, if unsuccessful. SNPeCPR animals received 2mg of SNP at minute 10 followed by 1mg every 5min until ROSC. Standard ACLS animals received 0.5mg epinephrine every 5min until ROSC. Primary endpoints were ROSC and 4-h survival. All SNPeCPR animals (8/8) achieved sustained ROSC versus 2/8 standard ACLS animals within one hour of resuscitation (p=0.04). The 4-h survival was significantly improved with SNPeCPR compared to standard ACLS, 7/8 versus 1/8 respectively, p=0.0019. SNPeCPR significantly improved ROSC and 4-h survival compared with standard ACLS CPR in a porcine model of prolonged ischemic, refractory VF cardiac arrest. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

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Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

2017-12-01

We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Improving Accuracy of Influenza-Associated Hospitalization Rate Estimates

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Reed, Carrie; Kirley, Pam Daily; Aragon, Deborah; Meek, James; Farley, Monica M.; Ryan, Patricia; Collins, Jim; Lynfield, Ruth; Baumbach, Joan; Zansky, Shelley; Bennett, Nancy M.; Fowler, Brian; Thomas, Ann; Lindegren, Mary L.; Atkinson, Annette; Finelli, Lyn; Chaves, Sandra S.

2015-01-01

Diagnostic test sensitivity affects rate estimates for laboratory-confirmed influenza–associated hospitalizations. We used data from FluSurv-NET, a national population-based surveillance system for laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations, to capture diagnostic test type by patient age and influenza season. We calculated observed rates by age group and adjusted rates by test sensitivity. Test sensitivity was lowest in adults >65 years of age. For all ages, reverse transcription PCR was the most sensitive test, and use increased from 65 years. After 2009, hospitalization rates adjusted by test sensitivity were ≈15% higher for children 65 years of age. Test sensitivity adjustments improve the accuracy of hospitalization rate estimates. PMID:26292017

Improved Battery Parameter Estimation Method Considering Operating Scenarios for HEV/EV Applications

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Jufeng Yang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted dataset is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.

Improving the Prediction of Prostate Cancer Overall Survival by Supplementing Readily Available Clinical Data with Gene Expression Levels of IGFBP3 and F3 in Formalin-Fixed Paraffin Embedded Core Needle Biopsy Material.

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Zhuochun Peng

Full Text Available A previously reported expression signature of three genes (IGFBP3, F3 and VGLL3 was shown to have potential prognostic value in estimating overall and cancer-specific survivals at diagnosis of prostate cancer in a pilot cohort study using freshly frozen Fine Needle Aspiration (FNA samples.We carried out a new cohort study with 241 prostate cancer patients diagnosed from 2004-2007 with a follow-up exceeding 6 years in order to verify the prognostic value of gene expression signature in formalin fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE prostate core needle biopsy tissue samples. The cohort consisted of four patient groups with different survival times and death causes. A four multiplex one-step RT-qPCR test kit, designed and optimized for measuring the expression signature in FFPE core needle biopsy samples, was used. In archive FFPE biopsy samples the expression differences of two genes (IGFBP3 and F3 were measured. The survival time predictions using the current clinical parameters only, such as age at diagnosis, Gleason score, PSA value and tumor stage, and clinical parameters supplemented with the expression levels of IGFBP3 and F3, were compared.When combined with currently used clinical parameters, the gene expression levels of IGFBP3 and F3 are improving the prediction of survival time as compared to using clinical parameters alone.The assessment of IGFBP3 and F3 gene expression levels in FFPE prostate cancer tissue would provide an improved survival prediction for prostate cancer patients at the time of diagnosis.

Survival Rate and Associated Factors of Childhood Leukemia in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta Analysis

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Yousef Veisani

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Context Resent reviews have shown that about 18% of all child cancers are leukemia. Track of the survival rate can help researchers improve quality of life of patients through improving screening or discovery of better treatments. Objectives This review aimed at estimating the 5-year survival rates and associated factors of childhood leukemia in Iran. Data Sources We carried out a systematic review through search of relevant studies published in English (PubMed, Scopus, Google scholar, and ISI and Persian databases (Magiran, Medlib, SID, and Iran Medex. Study Selection The study included all epidemiologic studies that estimated survival rate in children with leukemia in Iran during years 2002 to 2015, and a standardized manner was used for extraction of information. Data Extraction The entire text or summary of all searched articles was extracted and then, related articles were selected, and irrelevant ones were excluded. Fixed and random effects models were calculated by the STATA using standard meta-analysis methods. Heterogeneity was assessed by I² statistics. Results The overall 5-year survival rate in patients with childhood leukemia in Iran was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62 to 0.67, 10 studies, in the acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL subtype was 71.0% (95% CI: 68.0 to 74.0, and in the acute myeloid leukemia (AML subtype was 46.0%. Results of the meta analysis showed significant poor survival with relapse (heart rate (HR 1.59, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.27 to 1.98 and white blood count (WBC counts ≥ 50,000 (HR 2.92, 95% CI 1.23 to 4.60. Conclusions The results showed that 5-year survival rates in patients with AML were lower than patients with ALL. The results of this meta analysis strongly support the need for future research, action, and guidance for clinicians to improve health-related quality of life and outcomes for children with leukemia.

Carfilzomib significantly improves the progression-free survival of high-risk patients in multiple myeloma.

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Avet-Loiseau, Hervé; Fonseca, Rafael; Siegel, David; Dimopoulos, Meletios A; Špička, Ivan; Masszi, Tamás; Hájek, Roman; Rosiñol, Laura; Goranova-Marinova, Vesselina; Mihaylov, Georgi; Maisnar, Vladimír; Mateos, Maria-Victoria; Wang, Michael; Niesvizky, Ruben; Oriol, Albert; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Minarik, Jiri; Palumbo, Antonio; Bensinger, William; Kukreti, Vishal; Ben-Yehuda, Dina; Stewart, A Keith; Obreja, Mihaela; Moreau, Philippe

2016-09-01

The presence of certain high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, such as translocations (4;14) and (14;16) and deletion (17p), are known to have a negative impact on survival in multiple myeloma (MM). The phase 3 study ASPIRE (N = 792) demonstrated that progression-free survival (PFS) was significantly improved with carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone (KRd), compared with lenalidomide and dexamethasone (Rd) in relapsed MM. This preplanned subgroup analysis of ASPIRE was conducted to evaluate KRd vs Rd by baseline cytogenetics according to fluorescence in situ hybridization. Of 417 patients with known cytogenetic risk status, 100 patients (24%) were categorized with high-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 48; Rd, n = 52) and 317 (76%) were categorized with standard-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 147; Rd, n = 170). For patients with high-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd resulted in a median PFS of 23.1 months, a 9-month improvement relative to treatment with Rd. For patients with standard-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd led to a 10-month improvement in median PFS vs Rd. The overall response rates for KRd vs Rd were 79.2% vs 59.6% (high-risk cytogenetics) and 91.2% vs 73.5% (standard-risk cytogenetics); approximately fivefold as many patients with high- or standard-risk cytogenetics achieved a complete response or better with KRd vs Rd (29.2% vs 5.8% and 38.1% vs 6.5%, respectively). KRd improved but did not abrogate the poor prognosis associated with high-risk cytogenetics. This regimen had a favorable benefit-risk profile in patients with relapsed MM, irrespective of cytogenetic risk status, and should be considered a standard of care in these patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01080391. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology.

Relative effects of survival and reproduction on the population dynamics of emperor geese

Science.gov (United States)

Schmutz, Joel A.; Rockwell, Robert F.; Petersen, Margaret R.

1997-01-01

Populations of emperor geese (Chen canagica) in Alaska declined sometime between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s and have increased little since. To promote recovery of this species to former levels, managers need to know how much their perturbations of survival and/or reproduction would affect population growth rate (λ). We constructed an individual-based population model to evaluate the relative effect of altering mean values of various survival and reproductive parameters on λ and fall age structure (AS, defined as the proportion of juv), assuming additive rather than compensatory relations among parameters. Altering survival of adults had markedly greater relative effects on λ than did equally proportionate changes in either juvenile survival or reproductive parameters. We found the opposite pattern for relative effects on AS. Due to concerns about bias in the initial parameter estimates used in our model, we used 5 additional sets of parameter estimates with this model structure. We found that estimates of survival based on aerial survey data gathered each fall resulted in models that corresponded more closely to independent estimates of λ than did models that used mark-recapture estimates of survival. This disparity suggests that mark-recapture estimates of survival are biased low. To further explore how parameter estimates affected estimates of λ, we used values of survival and reproduction found in other goose species, and we examined the effect of an hypothesized correlation between an individual's clutch size and the subsequent survival of her young. The rank order of parameters in their relative effects on λ was consistent for all 6 parameter sets we examined. The observed variation in relative effects on λ among the 6 parameter sets is indicative of how relative effects on λ may vary among goose populations. With this knowledge of the relative effects of survival and reproductive parameters on λ, managers can make more informed decisions about

The Role of Satellite Imagery to Improve Pastureland Estimates in South America

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Graesser, J.

2015-12-01

Agriculture has changed substantially across the globe over the past half century. While much work has been done to improve spatial-temporal estimates of agricultural changes, we still know more about the extent of row-crop agriculture than livestock-grazed land. The gap between cropland and pastureland estimates exists largely because it is challenging to characterize natural versus grazed grasslands from a remote sensing perspective. However, the impasse of pastureland estimates is set to break, with an increasing number of spaceborne sensors and freely available satellite data. The Landsat satellite archive in particular provides researchers with immense amounts of data to improve pastureland information. Here we focus on South America, where pastureland expansion has been scrutinized for the past few decades. We explore the challenges of estimating pastureland using temporal Landsat imagery and focus on key agricultural countries, regions, and ecosystems. We focus on the suggested shift of pastureland from the Argentine Pampas to northern Argentina, and the mixing of small-scale and large-scale ranching in eastern Paraguay and how it could impact the Chaco forest to the west. Further, the Beni Savannahs of northern Bolivia and the Colombian Llanos—both grassland and savannah regions historically used for livestock grazing—have been hinted at as future areas for cropland expansion. There are certainly environmental concerns with pastureland expansion into forests; but what are the environmental implications when well-managed pasture systems are converted to intensive soybean or palm oil plantation? Tropical, grazed grasslands are important habitats for biodiversity, and pasturelands can mitigate soil erosion when well managed. Thus, we must improve estimates of grazed land before we can make informed policy and conservation decisions. This talk presents insights into pastureland estimates in South America and discusses the feasibility to improve current

Modeling nest-survival data: a comparison of recently developed methods that can be implemented in MARK and SAS

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Rotella, J. J.

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Estimating nest success and evaluating factors potentially related to the survival rates of nests are key aspects of many studies of avian populations. A strong interest in nest success has led to a rich literature detailing a variety of estimation methods for this vital rate. In recent years, modeling approaches have undergone especially rapid development. Despite these advances, most researchers still employ Mayfield’s ad-hoc method (Mayfield, 1961 or, in some cases, the maximum-likelihood estimator of Johnson (1979 and Bart & Robson (1982. Such methods permit analyses of stratified data but do not allow for more complex and realistic models of nest survival rate that include covariates that vary by individual, nest age, time, etc. and that may be continuous or categorical. Methods that allow researchers to rigorously assess the importance of a variety of biological factors that might affect nest survival rates can now be readily implemented in Program MARK and in SAS’s Proc GENMOD and Proc NLMIXED. Accordingly, use of Mayfield’s estimator without first evaluating the need for more complex models of nest survival rate cannot be justified. With the goal of increasing the use of more flexible methods, we first describe the likelihood used for these models and then consider the question of what the effective sample size is for computation of AICc. Next, we consider the advantages and disadvantages of these different programs in terms of ease of data input and model construction; utility/flexibility of generated estimates and predictions; ease of model selection; and ability to estimate variance components. An example data set is then analyzed using both MARK and SAS to demonstrate implementation of the methods with various models that contain nest-, group- (or block-, and time-specific covariates. Finally, we discuss improvements that would, if they became available, promote a better general understanding of nest survival rates.

Data on empirically estimated corporate survival rate in Russia.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuzmin, Evgeny A

2018-02-01

The article presents data on the corporate survival rate in Russia in 1991-2014. The empirical survey was based on a random sample with the average number of non-repeated observations (number of companies) for the survey each year equal to 75,958 (24,236 minimum and 126,953 maximum). The actual limiting mean error ∆ p was 2.24% with 99% integrity. The survey methodology was based on a cross joining of various formal periods in the corporate life cycles (legal and business), which makes it possible to talk about a conventionally active time life of companies' existence with a number of assumptions. The empirical survey values were grouped by Russian regions and industries according to the classifier and consolidated into a single database for analysing the corporate life cycle and their survival rate and searching for deviation dependencies in calculated parameters. Preliminary and incomplete figures were available in the paper entitled "Survival Rate and Lifecycle in Terms of Uncertainty: Review of Companies from Russia and Eastern Europe" (Kuzmin and Guseva, 2016) [3]. The further survey led to filtered processed data with clerical errors excluded. These particular values are available in the article. The survey intended to fill a fact-based gap in various fundamental surveys that involved matters of the corporate life cycle in Russia within the insufficient statistical framework. The data are of interest for an analysis of Russian entrepreneurship, assessment of the market development and incorporation risks in the current business environment. A further heuristic potential is achievable through an ability of forecasted changes in business demography and model building based on the representative data set.

An analytical solution for improved HIFU SAR estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dillon, C R; Vyas, U; Christensen, D A; Roemer, R B; Payne, A

2012-01-01

Accurate determination of the specific absorption rates (SARs) present during high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) experiments and treatments provides a solid physical basis for scientific comparison of results among HIFU studies and is necessary to validate and improve SAR predictive software, which will improve patient treatment planning, control and evaluation. This study develops and tests an analytical solution that significantly improves the accuracy of SAR values obtained from HIFU temperature data. SAR estimates are obtained by fitting the analytical temperature solution for a one-dimensional radial Gaussian heating pattern to the temperature versus time data following a step in applied power and evaluating the initial slope of the analytical solution. The analytical method is evaluated in multiple parametric simulations for which it consistently (except at high perfusions) yields maximum errors of less than 10% at the center of the focal zone compared with errors up to 90% and 55% for the commonly used linear method and an exponential method, respectively. For high perfusion, an extension of the analytical method estimates SAR with less than 10% error. The analytical method is validated experimentally by showing that the temperature elevations predicted using the analytical method's SAR values determined for the entire 3D focal region agree well with the experimental temperature elevations in a HIFU-heated tissue-mimicking phantom. (paper)

Improved Survival With Radiation Therapy in Stage I-II Primary Mediastinal B Cell Lymphoma: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jackson, Matthew W., E-mail: matthew.jackson@ucdenver.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Colorado Cancer Center, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Rusthoven, Chad G.; Jones, Bernard L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Colorado Cancer Center, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Kamdar, Manali [Department of Medical Oncology, University of Colorado Cancer Center, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Rabinovitch, Rachel [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Colorado Cancer Center, Aurora, Colorado (United States)

2016-01-01

Background: Primary mediastinal B cell lymphoma (PMBCL) is an uncommon lymphoma for which trials are few with small patient numbers. The role of radiation therapy (RT) after standard immunochemotherapy for early-stage disease has never been studied prospectively. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to evaluate PMBCL and the impact of RT on outcomes. Methods and Materials: We queried the SEER database for patients with stage I-II PMBCL diagnosed from 2001 to 2011. Retrievable data included age, gender, race (white/nonwhite), stage, extranodal disease, year of diagnosis, and use of RT as a component of definitive therapy. Kaplan-Meier overall survival (OS) estimates, univariate (UVA) log-rank and multivariate (MVA) Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed. Results: Two hundred fifty patients with stage I-II disease were identified, with a median follow-up time of 39 months (range, 3-125 months). The median age was 36 years (range, 18-89 years); 61% were female; 76% were white; 45% had stage I disease, 60% had extranodal disease, and 55% were given RT. The 5-year OS for the entire cohort was 86%. On UVA, OS was improved with RT (hazard ratio [HR] 0.446, P=.029) and decreased in association with nonwhite race (HR 2.70, P=.006). The 5-year OS was 79% (no RT) and 90% (RT). On MVA, white race and RT remained significantly associated with improved OS (P=.007 and .018, respectively). The use of RT decreased over time: 61% for the 67 patients whose disease was diagnosed from 2001 to 2005 and 53% in the 138 patients treated from 2006 to 2010. Conclusion: This retrospective population-based analysis is the largest PMBCL dataset to date and demonstrates a significant survival benefit associated with RT. Nearly half of patients treated in the United States do not receive RT, and its use appears to be declining. In the absence of phase 3 data, the use of RT should be strongly considered for its survival benefit in early

Low-dose radiation pretreatment improves survival of human ceiling culture-derived proliferative adipocytes (ccdPAs) under hypoxia via HIF-1 alpha and MMP-2 induction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adachi, Naoki; Kubota, Yoshitaka; Kosaka, Kentarou; Akita, Shinsuke; Sasahara, Yoshitarou; Kira, Tomoe; Kuroda, Masayuki; Mitsukawa, Nobuyuki; Bujo, Hideaki; Satoh, Kaneshige

2015-01-01

Poor survival is a major problem of adipocyte transplantation. We previously reported that VEGF and MMPs secreted from transplanted adipocytes are essential for angiogenesis and adipogenesis. Pretreatment with low-dose (5 Gy) radiation (LDR) increased VEGF, MMP-2, and HIF-1 alpha mRNA expression in human ceiling culture-derived proliferative adipocytes (hccdPAs). Gene expression after LDR differed between adipose-derived stem cells (hASCs) and hccdPAs. Pretreatment with LDR improved the survival of hccdPAs under hypoxia, which is inevitable in the early stages after transplantation. Upregulation of VEGF and MMP-2 after LDR in hccdPAs is mediated by HIF-1 alpha expression. Our results suggest that pretreatment with LDR may improve adipocyte graft survival in a clinical setting through upregulation of VEGF and MMP-2 via HIF-1 alpha. - Highlights: • Ceiling culture-derived proliferative adipocytes (ccdPAs) react to radiation. • Low-dose radiation (LDR) pretreatment improves survival of ccdPAs under hypoxia. • Gene expression after LDR differs between ccdPAs and adipose-derived stem cells. • LDR-induced increase in MMP-2 and VEGF is dependent on HIF-1 alpha induction. • LDR pretreatment may improve the adipocyte graft survival rate in clinical settings

Low-dose radiation pretreatment improves survival of human ceiling culture-derived proliferative adipocytes (ccdPAs) under hypoxia via HIF-1 alpha and MMP-2 induction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adachi, Naoki [Department of Plastic Surgery, Chiba University, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba-city, Chiba, #260-8677 (Japan); Kubota, Yoshitaka, E-mail: kubota-cbu@umin.ac.jp [Department of Plastic Surgery, Chiba University, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba-city, Chiba, #260-8677 (Japan); Kosaka, Kentarou; Akita, Shinsuke; Sasahara, Yoshitarou; Kira, Tomoe [Department of Plastic Surgery, Chiba University, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba-city, Chiba, #260-8677 (Japan); Kuroda, Masayuki [Center for Advanced Medicine, Chiba University, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba-city, Chiba, #260-8677 (Japan); Mitsukawa, Nobuyuki [Department of Plastic Surgery, Chiba University, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba-city, Chiba, #260-8677 (Japan); Bujo, Hideaki [Department of Clinical-Laboratory and Experimental-Research Medicine, Toho University, Sakura Medical Center, 564-1 Shimoshizu, Sakura-shi, Chiba, #285-8741 (Japan); Satoh, Kaneshige [Department of Plastic Surgery, Chiba University, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba-city, Chiba, #260-8677 (Japan)

2015-08-07

Poor survival is a major problem of adipocyte transplantation. We previously reported that VEGF and MMPs secreted from transplanted adipocytes are essential for angiogenesis and adipogenesis. Pretreatment with low-dose (5 Gy) radiation (LDR) increased VEGF, MMP-2, and HIF-1 alpha mRNA expression in human ceiling culture-derived proliferative adipocytes (hccdPAs). Gene expression after LDR differed between adipose-derived stem cells (hASCs) and hccdPAs. Pretreatment with LDR improved the survival of hccdPAs under hypoxia, which is inevitable in the early stages after transplantation. Upregulation of VEGF and MMP-2 after LDR in hccdPAs is mediated by HIF-1 alpha expression. Our results suggest that pretreatment with LDR may improve adipocyte graft survival in a clinical setting through upregulation of VEGF and MMP-2 via HIF-1 alpha. - Highlights: • Ceiling culture-derived proliferative adipocytes (ccdPAs) react to radiation. • Low-dose radiation (LDR) pretreatment improves survival of ccdPAs under hypoxia. • Gene expression after LDR differs between ccdPAs and adipose-derived stem cells. • LDR-induced increase in MMP-2 and VEGF is dependent on HIF-1 alpha induction. • LDR pretreatment may improve the adipocyte graft survival rate in clinical settings.

The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia basin. Volume 8: A new model for estimating survival probabilities and residualization from a release-recapture study of fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) smolts in the Snake River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowther, A.B.; Skalski, J.

1997-09-01

Standard release-recapture analysis using Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models to estimate survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities for Snake river fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) ignore the possibility of individual fish residualizing and completing their migration in the year following tagging. These models do not utilize available capture history data from this second year and, thus, produce negatively biased estimates of survival probabilities. A new multinomial likelihood model was developed that results in biologically relevant, unbiased estimates of survival probabilities using the full two years of capture history data. This model was applied to 1995 Snake River fall chinook hatchery releases to estimate the true survival probability from one of three upstream release points (Asotin, Billy Creek, and Pittsburgh Landing) to Lower Granite Dam. In the data analyzed here, residualization is not a common physiological response and thus the use of CJS models did not result in appreciably different results than the true survival probability obtained using the new multinomial likelihood model

Covariate analysis of bivariate survival data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bennett, L.E.

1992-01-01

The methods developed are used to analyze the effects of covariates on bivariate survival data when censoring and ties are present. The proposed method provides models for bivariate survival data that include differential covariate effects and censored observations. The proposed models are based on an extension of the univariate Buckley-James estimators which replace censored data points by their expected values, conditional on the censoring time and the covariates. For the bivariate situation, it is necessary to determine the expectation of the failure times for one component conditional on the failure or censoring time of the other component. Two different methods have been developed to estimate these expectations. In the semiparametric approach these expectations are determined from a modification of Burke's estimate of the bivariate empirical survival function. In the parametric approach censored data points are also replaced by their conditional expected values where the expected values are determined from a specified parametric distribution. The model estimation will be based on the revised data set, comprised of uncensored components and expected values for the censored components. The variance-covariance matrix for the estimated covariate parameters has also been derived for both the semiparametric and parametric methods. Data from the Demographic and Health Survey was analyzed by these methods. The two outcome variables are post-partum amenorrhea and breastfeeding; education and parity were used as the covariates. Both the covariate parameter estimates and the variance-covariance estimates for the semiparametric and parametric models will be compared. In addition, a multivariate test statistic was used in the semiparametric model to examine contrasts. The significance of the statistic was determined from a bootstrap distribution of the test statistic.

Improving PAGER's real-time earthquake casualty and loss estimation toolkit: a challenge

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.

2012-01-01

We describe the on-going developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models, and discuss value-added web content that can be generated related to exposure, damage and loss outputs for a variety of PAGER users. These developments include identifying vulnerable building types in any given area, estimating earthquake-induced damage and loss statistics by building type, and developing visualization aids that help locate areas of concern for improving post-earthquake response efforts. While detailed exposure and damage information is highly useful and desirable, significant improvements are still necessary in order to improve underlying building stock and vulnerability data at a global scale. Existing efforts with the GEM’s GED4GEM and GVC consortia will help achieve some of these objectives. This will benefit PAGER especially in regions where PAGER’s empirical model is less-well constrained; there, the semi-empirical and analytical models will provide robust estimates of damage and losses. Finally, we outline some of the challenges associated with rapid casualty and loss estimation that we experienced while responding to recent large earthquakes worldwide.

Survival Analysis of Patients with End Stage Renal Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Urrutia, J. D.; Gayo, W. S.; Bautista, L. A.; Baccay, E. B.

2015-06-01

This paper provides a survival analysis of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) under Kaplan-Meier Estimates and Weibull Distribution. The data were obtained from the records of V. L. MakabaliMemorial Hospital with respect to time t (patient's age), covariates such as developed secondary disease (Pulmonary Congestion and Cardiovascular Disease), gender, and the event of interest: the death of ESRD patients. Survival and hazard rates were estimated using NCSS for Weibull Distribution and SPSS for Kaplan-Meier Estimates. These lead to the same conclusion that hazard rate increases and survival rate decreases of ESRD patient diagnosed with Pulmonary Congestion, Cardiovascular Disease and both diseases with respect to time. It also shows that female patients have a greater risk of death compared to males. The probability risk was given the equation R = 1 — e-H(t) where e-H(t) is the survival function, H(t) the cumulative hazard function which was created using Cox-Regression.

Piecewise Geometric Estimation of a Survival Function.

Science.gov (United States)

1985-04-01

Langberg (1982). One of the by- products of the estimation process is an estimate of the failure rate function: here, another issue is raised. It is evident...envisaged as the infinite product probability space that may be constructed in the usual way from the sequence of probability spaces corresponding to the...received 6 MP (a mercaptopurine used in the treatment of leukemia). The ordered remis- sion times in weeks are: 6, 6, 6, 6+, 7, 9+, 10, 10+, 11+, 13, 16

Fledgling survival increases with development time and adult survival across north and south temperate zones

Science.gov (United States)

Lloyd, Penn; Martin, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Slow life histories are characterized by high adult survival and few offspring, which are thought to allow increased investment per offspring to increase juvenile survival. Consistent with this pattern, south temperate zone birds are commonly longer-lived and have fewer young than north temperate zone species. However, comparative analyses of juvenile survival, including during the first few weeks of the post-fledging period when most juvenile mortality occurs, are largely lacking. We combined our measurements of fledgling survival for eight passerines in South Africa with estimates from published studies of 57 north and south temperate zone songbird species to test three predictions: (1) fledgling survival increases with length of development time in the nest; (2) fledgling survival increases with adult survival and reduced brood size controlled for development time; and (3) south temperate zone species, with their higher adult survival and smaller brood sizes, exhibit higher fledgling survival than north temperate zone species controlled for development time. We found that fledgling survival was higher among south temperate zone species and generally increased with development time and adult survival within and between latitudinal regions. Clutch size did not explain additional variation, but was confounded with adult survival. Given the importance of age-specific mortality to life history evolution, understanding the causes of these geographical patterns of mortality is important.

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVII : Effects of Ocean Covariates and Release Timing on First Ocean-Year Survival of Fall Chinook Salmon from Oregon and Washington Coastal Hatcheries.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burgess, Caitlin; Skalski, John R.

2001-05-01

Effects of oceanographic conditions, as well as effects of release-timing and release-size, on first ocean-year survival of subyearling fall chinook salmon were investigated by analyzing CWT release and recovery data from Oregon and Washington coastal hatcheries. Age-class strength was estimated using a multinomial probability likelihood which estimated first-year survival as a proportional hazards regression against ocean and release covariates. Weight-at-release and release-month were found to significantly effect first year survival (p < 0.05) and ocean effects were therefore estimated after adjusting for weight-at-release. Negative survival trend was modeled for sea surface temperature (SST) during 11 months of the year over the study period (1970-1992). Statistically significant negative survival trends (p < 0.05) were found for SST during April, June, November and December. Strong pairwise correlations (r > 0.6) between SST in April/June, April/November and April/December suggest the significant relationships were due to one underlying process. At higher latitudes (45{sup o} and 48{sup o}N), summer upwelling (June-August) showed positive survival trend with survival and fall (September-November) downwelling showed positive trend with survival, indicating early fall transition improved survival. At 45{sup o} and 48{sup o}, during spring, alternating survival trends with upwelling were observed between March and May, with negative trend occurring in March and May, and positive trend with survival occurring in April. In January, two distinct scenarios of improved survival were linked to upwelling conditions, indicated by (1) a significant linear model effect (p < 0.05) showing improved survival with increasing upwelling, and (2) significant bowl-shaped curvature (p < 0.05) of survival with upwelling. The interpretation of the effects is that there was (1) significantly improved survival when downwelling conditions shifted to upwelling conditions in January (i

Evaluating the Impact of Zimbabwe's Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission Program: Population-Level Estimates of HIV-Free Infant Survival Pre-Option A.

Science.gov (United States)

Buzdugan, Raluca; McCoy, Sandra I; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Kang Dufour, Mi-Suk; Petersen, Maya; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Mushavi, Angela; Mujuru, Hilda Angela; Mahomva, Agnes; Musarandega, Reuben; Hakobyan, Anna; Mugurungi, Owen; Cowan, Frances M; Padian, Nancy S

2015-01-01

We estimated HIV-free infant survival and mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) rates in Zimbabwe, some of the first community-based estimates from a UNAIDS priority country. In 2012 we surveyed mother-infant pairs residing in the catchment areas of 157 health facilities randomly selected from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Enrolled infants were born 9-18 months before the survey. We collected questionnaires, blood samples for HIV testing, and verbal autopsies for deceased mothers/infants. Estimates were assessed among i) all HIV-exposed infants, as part of an impact evaluation of Option A of the 2010 WHO guidelines (rolled out in Zimbabwe in 2011), and ii) the subgroup of infants unexposed to Option A. We compared province-level MTCT rates measured among women in the community with MTCT rates measured using program monitoring data from facilities serving those communities. Among 8568 women with known HIV serostatus, 1107 (12.9%) were HIV-infected. Among all HIV-exposed infants, HIV-free infant survival was 90.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88.7-92.7) and MTCT was 8.8% (95% CI: 6.9-11.1). Sixty-six percent of HIV-exposed infants were still breastfeeding. Among the 762 infants born before Option A was implemented, 90.5% (95% CI: 88.1-92.5) were alive and HIV-uninfected at 9-18 months of age, and 9.1% (95%CI: 7.1-11.7) were HIV-infected. In four provinces, the community-based MTCT rate was higher than the facility-based MTCT rate. In Harare, the community and facility-based rates were 6.0% and 9.1%, respectively. By 2012 Zimbabwe had made substantial progress towards the elimination of MTCT. Our HIV-free infant survival and MTCT estimates capture HIV transmissions during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding regardless of whether or not mothers accessed health services. These estimates also provide a baseline against which to measure the impact of Option A guidelines (and subsequently Option B+).

Single Agent Polysaccharopeptide Delays Metastases and Improves Survival in Naturally Occurring Hemangiosarcoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorothy Cimino Brown

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The 2008 World Health Organization World Cancer Report describes global cancer incidence soaring with many patients living in countries that lack resources for cancer control. Alternative treatment strategies that can reduce the global disease burden at manageable costs must be developed. Polysaccharopeptide (PSP is the bioactive agent from the mushroom Coriolus versicolor. Studies indicate PSP has in vitro antitumor activities and inhibits the growth of induced tumors in animal models. Clear evidence of clinically relevant benefits of PSP in cancer patients, however, is lacking. The investment of resources required to complete large-scale, randomized controlled trials of PSP in cancer patients is more easily justified if antitumor and survival benefits are documented in a complex animal model of a naturally occurring cancer that parallels human disease. Because of its high metastatic rate and vascular origin, canine hemangiosarcoma is used for investigations in antimetastatic and antiangiogenic therapies. In this double-blind randomized multidose pilot study, high-dose PSP significantly delayed the progression of metastases and afforded the longest survival times reported in canine hemangiosarcoma. These data suggest that, for those cancer patients for whom advanced treatments are not accessible, PSP as a single agent might offer significant improvements in morbidity and mortality.

The effect of clinical performance on the survival estimates of direct restorations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyou-Li Kim

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Objectives In most retrospective studies, the clinical performance of restorations had not been considered in survival analysis. This study investigated the effect of including the clinically unacceptable cases according to modified United States Public Health Service (USPHS criteria into the failed data on the survival analysis of direct restorations as to the longevity and prognostic variables. Materials and Methods Nine hundred and sixty-seven direct restorations were evaluated. The data of 204 retreated restorations were collected from the records, and clinical performance of 763 restorations in function was evaluated according to modified USPHS criteria by two observers. The longevity and prognostic variables of the restorations were compared with a factor of involving clinically unacceptable cases into the failures using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard model. Results The median survival times of amalgam, composite resin and glass ionomer were 11.8, 11.0 and 6.8 years, respectively. Glass ionomer showed significantly lower longevity than composite resin and amalgam. When clinically unacceptable restorations were included into the failure, the median survival times of them decreased to 8.9, 9.7 and 6.4 years, respectively. Conclusions After considering the clinical performance, composite resin was the only material that showed a difference in the longevity (p < 0.05 and the significantly higher relative risk of student group than professor group disappeared in operator groups. Even in the design of retrospective study, clinical evaluation needs to be included.

MODIS Data Assimilation in the CROPGRO model for improving soybean yield estimations

Science.gov (United States)

Richetti, J.; Monsivais-Huertero, A.; Ahmad, I.; Judge, J.

2017-12-01

Soybean is one of the main agricultural commodities in the world. Thus, having better estimates of its agricultural production is important. Improving the soybean crop models in Brazil is crucial for better understanding of the soybean market and enhancing decision making, because Brazil is the second largest soybean producer in the world, Parana state is responsible for almost 20% of it, and by itself would be the fourth greatest soybean producer in the world. Data assimilation techniques provide a method to improve spatio-temporal continuity of crops through integration of remotely sensed observations and crop growth models. This study aims to use MODIS EVI to improve DSSAT-CROPGRO soybean yield estimations in the Parana state, southern Brazil. The method uses the Ensemble Kalman filter which assimilates MODIS Terra and Aqua combined products (MOD13Q1 and MYD13Q1) into the CROPGRO model to improve the agricultural production estimates through update of light interception data over time. Expected results will be validated with monitored commercial farms during the period of 2013-2014.

Parameter Estimation for Improving Association Indicators in Binary Logistic Regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahdi Bashiri

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is estimation of Binary logistic regression parameters for maximizing the log-likelihood function with improved association indicators. In this paper the parameter estimation steps have been explained and then measures of association have been introduced and their calculations have been analyzed. Moreover a new related indicators based on membership degree level have been expressed. Indeed association measures demonstrate the number of success responses occurred in front of failure in certain number of Bernoulli independent experiments. In parameter estimation, existing indicators values is not sensitive to the parameter values, whereas the proposed indicators are sensitive to the estimated parameters during the iterative procedure. Therefore, proposing a new association indicator of binary logistic regression with more sensitivity to the estimated parameters in maximizing the log- likelihood in iterative procedure is innovation of this study.

IMPROVEMENT OF THE RICHNESS ESTIMATES OF maxBCG CLUSTERS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozo, Eduardo; Rykoff, Eli S.; Koester, Benjamin P.; Hansen, Sarah; Becker, Matthew; Bleem, Lindsey; McKay, Timothy; Hao Jiangang; Evrard, August; Wechsler, Risa H.; Sheldon, Erin; Johnston, David; Annis, James; Scranton, Ryan

2009-01-01

Minimizing the scatter between cluster mass and accessible observables is an important goal for cluster cosmology. In this work, we introduce a new matched filter richness estimator, and test its performance using the maxBCG cluster catalog. Our new estimator significantly reduces the variance in the L X -richness relation, from σ lnLx 2 = (0.86±0.02) 2 to σ lnLx 2 = (0.69±0.02) 2 . Relative to the maxBCG richness estimate, it also removes the strong redshift dependence of the L X -richness scaling relations, and is significantly more robust to photometric and redshift errors. These improvements are largely due to the better treatment of galaxy color data. We also demonstrate the scatter in the L X -richness relation depends on the aperture used to estimate cluster richness, and introduce a novel approach for optimizing said aperture which can easily be generalized to other mass tracers.

Error Estimation and Accuracy Improvements in Nodal Transport Methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamonsky, O.M.

2000-01-01

The accuracy of the solutions produced by the Discrete Ordinates neutron transport nodal methods is analyzed.The obtained new numerical methodologies increase the accuracy of the analyzed scheems and give a POSTERIORI error estimators. The accuracy improvement is obtained with new equations that make the numerical procedure free of truncation errors and proposing spatial reconstructions of the angular fluxes that are more accurate than those used until present. An a POSTERIORI error estimator is rigurously obtained for one dimensional systems that, in certain type of problems, allows to quantify the accuracy of the solutions. From comparisons with the one dimensional results, an a POSTERIORI error estimator is also obtained for multidimensional systems. LOCAL indicators, which quantify the spatial distribution of the errors, are obtained by the decomposition of the menctioned estimators. This makes the proposed methodology suitable to perform adaptive calculations. Some numerical examples are presented to validate the theoretical developements and to illustrate the ranges where the proposed approximations are valid

Improvement of Accuracy for Background Noise Estimation Method Based on TPE-AE

Science.gov (United States)

Itai, Akitoshi; Yasukawa, Hiroshi

This paper proposes a method of a background noise estimation based on the tensor product expansion with a median and a Monte carlo simulation. We have shown that a tensor product expansion with absolute error method is effective to estimate a background noise, however, a background noise might not be estimated by using conventional method properly. In this paper, it is shown that the estimate accuracy can be improved by using proposed methods.

Dictionary-based fiber orientation estimation with improved spatial consistency.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Chuyang; Prince, Jerry L

2018-02-01

Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) has enabled in vivo investigation of white matter tracts. Fiber orientation (FO) estimation is a key step in tract reconstruction and has been a popular research topic in dMRI analysis. In particular, the sparsity assumption has been used in conjunction with a dictionary-based framework to achieve reliable FO estimation with a reduced number of gradient directions. Because image noise can have a deleterious effect on the accuracy of FO estimation, previous works have incorporated spatial consistency of FOs in the dictionary-based framework to improve the estimation. However, because FOs are only indirectly determined from the mixture fractions of dictionary atoms and not modeled as variables in the objective function, these methods do not incorporate FO smoothness directly, and their ability to produce smooth FOs could be limited. In this work, we propose an improvement to Fiber Orientation Reconstruction using Neighborhood Information (FORNI), which we call FORNI+; this method estimates FOs in a dictionary-based framework where FO smoothness is better enforced than in FORNI alone. We describe an objective function that explicitly models the actual FOs and the mixture fractions of dictionary atoms. Specifically, it consists of data fidelity between the observed signals and the signals represented by the dictionary, pairwise FO dissimilarity that encourages FO smoothness, and weighted ℓ 1 -norm terms that ensure the consistency between the actual FOs and the FO configuration suggested by the dictionary representation. The FOs and mixture fractions are then jointly estimated by minimizing the objective function using an iterative alternating optimization strategy. FORNI+ was evaluated on a simulation phantom, a physical phantom, and real brain dMRI data. In particular, in the real brain dMRI experiment, we have qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated the reproducibility of the proposed method. Results demonstrate that

Neuregulin-1/erbB-activation improves cardiac function and survival in models of ischemic, dilated, and viral cardiomyopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xifu; Gu, Xinhua; Li, Zhaoming; Li, Xinyan; Li, Hui; Chang, Jianjie; Chen, Ping; Jin, Jing; Xi, Bing; Chen, Denghong; Lai, Donna; Graham, Robert M; Zhou, Mingdong

2006-10-03

We evaluated the therapeutic potential of a recombinant 61-residue neuregulin-1 (beta2a isoform) receptor-active peptide (rhNRG-1) in multiple animal models of heart disease. Activation of the erbB family of receptor tyrosine kinases by rhNRG-1 could provide a treatment option for heart failure, because neuregulin-stimulated erbB2/erbB4 heterodimerization is not only critical for myocardium formation in early heart development but prevents severe dysfunction of the adult heart and premature death. Disabled erbB-signaling is also implicated in the transition from compensatory hypertrophy to failure, whereas erbB receptor-activation promotes myocardial cell growth and survival and protects against anthracycline-induced cardiomyopathy. rhNRG-1 was administered IV to animal models of ischemic, dilated, and viral cardiomyopathy, and cardiac function and survival were evaluated. Short-term intravenous administration of rhNRG-1 to normal dogs and rats did not alter hemodynamics or cardiac contractility. In contrast, rhNRG-1 improved cardiac performance, attenuated pathological changes, and prolonged survival in rodent models of ischemic, dilated, and viral cardiomyopathy, with the survival benefits in the ischemic model being additive to those of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy. In addition, despite continued pacing, rhNRG-1 produced global improvements in cardiac function in a canine model of pacing-induced heart failure. These beneficial effects make rhNRG-1 promising as a broad-spectrum therapeutic for the treatment of heart failure due to a variety of common cardiac diseases.

Microencapsulation of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG by Transglutaminase Cross-Linked Soy Protein Isolate to Improve Survival in Simulated Gastrointestinal Conditions and Yoghurt.

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Li, Chun; Wang, Chun-Ling; Sun, Yu; Li, Ai-Li; Liu, Fei; Meng, Xiang-Chen

2016-07-01

Microencapsulation is an effective way to improve the survival of probiotics in simulated gastrointestinal (GI) conditions and yoghurt. In this study, microencapsulation of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG) was prepared by first cross-linking of soy protein isolate (SPI) using transglutaminase (TGase), followed by embedding the bacteria in cross-linked SPI, and then freeze-drying. The survival of microencapsulated LGG was evaluated in simulated GI conditions and yoghurt. The results showed that a high microencapsulation yield of 67.4% was obtained. The diameter of the microencapsulated LGG was in the range of 52.83 to 275.16 μm. Water activity did not differ between free and microencapsulated LGG after freeze-drying. The survival of microencapsulated LGG under simulated gastric juice (pH 2.5 and 3.6), intestinal juice (0.3% and 2% bile salt) and storage at 4 °C were significantly higher than that of free cells. The survival of LGG in TGase cross-linked SPI microcapsules was also improved to 14.5 ± 0.5% during storage in yoghurt. The microencapsulation of probiotics by TGase-treated SPI can be a suitable alternative to polysaccharide gelation technologies. © 2016 Institute of Food Technologists®

Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

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O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

2011-01-01

We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

Compensatory effects of recruitment and survival when amphibian populations are perturbed by disease

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Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Pilliod, D.S.

2011-01-01

The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. We applied the reverse-time model of Pradel in Program mark to 6years of capture-recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. High recruitment rates (0??41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0??51-0??54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0??75-0??78) but lower recruitment rates (0??25). Synthesis and applications.We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of

Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

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Eran Bendavid

Full Text Available Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data.Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5q(x. We then compare our (5q(x estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old.We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased. WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%. However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9% and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%. Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60.Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with

Soluble guanylate cyclase stimulation prevents fibrotic tissue remodeling and improves survival in salt-sensitive Dahl rats.

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Sandra Geschka

Full Text Available A direct pharmacological stimulation of soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC is an emerging therapeutic approach to the management of various cardiovascular disorders associated with endothelial dysfunction. Novel sGC stimulators, including riociguat (BAY 63-2521, have a dual mode of action: They sensitize sGC to endogenously produced nitric oxide (NO and also directly stimulate sGC independently of NO. Little is known about their effects on tissue remodeling and degeneration and survival in experimental malignant hypertension.Mortality, hemodynamics and biomarkers of tissue remodeling and degeneration were assessed in Dahl salt-sensitive rats maintained on a high salt diet and treated with riociguat (3 or 10 mg/kg/d for 14 weeks. Riociguat markedly attenuated systemic hypertension, improved systolic heart function and increased survival from 33% to 85%. Histological examination of the heart and kidneys revealed that riociguat significantly ameliorated fibrotic tissue remodeling and degeneration. Correspondingly, mRNA expression of the pro-fibrotic biomarkers osteopontin (OPN, tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1 and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1 in the myocardium and the renal cortex was attenuated by riociguat. In addition, riociguat reduced plasma and urinary levels of OPN, TIMP-1, and PAI-1.Stimulation of sGC by riociguat markedly improves survival and attenuates systemic hypertension and systolic dysfunction, as well as fibrotic tissue remodeling in the myocardium and the renal cortex in a rodent model of pressure and volume overload. These findings suggest a therapeutic potential of sGC stimulators in diseases associated with impaired cardiovascular and renal functions.

Improved moment scaling estimation for multifractal signals

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D. Veneziano

2009-11-01

Full Text Available A fundamental problem in the analysis of multifractal processes is to estimate the scaling exponent K(q of moments of different order q from data. Conventional estimators use the empirical moments μ^_r^q=⟨ | ε_r(τ|^q⟩ of wavelet coefficients ε_r(τ, where τ is location and r is resolution. For stationary measures one usually considers "wavelets of order 0" (averages, whereas for functions with multifractal increments one must use wavelets of order at least 1. One obtains K^(q as the slope of log( μ^_r^q against log(r over a range of r. Negative moments are sensitive to measurement noise and quantization. For them, one typically uses only the local maxima of | ε_r(τ| (modulus maxima methods. For the positive moments, we modify the standard estimator K^(q to significantly reduce its variance at the expense of a modest increase in the bias. This is done by separately estimating K(q from sub-records and averaging the results. For the negative moments, we show that the standard modulus maxima estimator is biased and, in the case of additive noise or quantization, is not applicable with wavelets of order 1 or higher. For these cases we propose alternative estimators. We also consider the fitting of parametric models of K(q and show how, by splitting the record into sub-records as indicated above, the accuracy of standard methods can be significantly improved.

Improving Estimates of Cloud Radiative Forcing over Greenland

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Wang, W.; Zender, C. S.

2014-12-01

Multiple driving mechanisms conspire to increase melt extent and extreme melt events frequency in the Arctic: changing heat transport, shortwave radiation (SW), and longwave radiation (LW). Cloud Radiative Forcing (CRF) of Greenland's surface is amplified by a dry atmosphere and by albedo feedback, making its contribution to surface melt even more variable in time and space. Unfortunately accurate cloud observations and thus CRF estimates are hindered by Greenland's remoteness, harsh conditions, and low contrast between surface and cloud reflectance. In this study, cloud observations from satellites and reanalyses are ingested into and evaluated within a column radiative transfer model. An improved CRF dataset is obtained by correcting systematic discrepancies derived from sensitivity experiments. First, we compare the surface radiation budgets from the Column Radiation Model (CRM) driven by different cloud datasets, with surface observations from Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net). In clear skies, CRM-estimated surface radiation driven by water vapor profiles from both AIRS and MODIS during May-Sept 2010-2012 are similar, stable, and reliable. For example, although AIRS water vapor path exceeds MODIS by 1.4 kg/m2 on a daily average, the overall absolute difference in downwelling SW is CRM estimates are within 20 W/m2 range of GC-Net downwelling SW. After calibrating CRM in clear skies, the remaining differences between CRM and observed surface radiation are primarily attributable to differences in cloud observations. We estimate CRF using cloud products from MODIS and from MERRA. The SW radiative forcing of thin clouds is mainly controlled by cloud water path (CWP). As CWP increases from near 0 to 200 g/m2, the net surface SW drops from over 100 W/m2 to 30 W/m2 almost linearly, beyond which it becomes relatively insensitive to CWP. The LW is dominated by cloud height. For clouds at all altitudes, the lower the clouds, the greater the LW forcing. By applying

Genetic architecture of rainbow trout survival from egg to adult

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vehvilainen, H.; Kause, A.; Quiton, C.; Kuukka-Anttila, H.; Koskinen, H.; Paananen, T.

2010-01-01

Survival from birth to a reproductive adult is a challenge that only robust individuals resistant to a variety of mortality factors will overcome. To assess whether survival traits share genetic architecture throughout the life cycle, we estimated genetic correlations for survival within fingerling

Joint estimation over multiple individuals improves behavioural state inference from animal movement data.

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Jonsen, Ian

2016-02-08

State-space models provide a powerful way to scale up inference of movement behaviours from individuals to populations when the inference is made across multiple individuals. Here, I show how a joint estimation approach that assumes individuals share identical movement parameters can lead to improved inference of behavioural states associated with different movement processes. I use simulated movement paths with known behavioural states to compare estimation error between nonhierarchical and joint estimation formulations of an otherwise identical state-space model. Behavioural state estimation error was strongly affected by the degree of similarity between movement patterns characterising the behavioural states, with less error when movements were strongly dissimilar between states. The joint estimation model improved behavioural state estimation relative to the nonhierarchical model for simulated data with heavy-tailed Argos location errors. When applied to Argos telemetry datasets from 10 Weddell seals, the nonhierarchical model estimated highly uncertain behavioural state switching probabilities for most individuals whereas the joint estimation model yielded substantially less uncertainty. The joint estimation model better resolved the behavioural state sequences across all seals. Hierarchical or joint estimation models should be the preferred choice for estimating behavioural states from animal movement data, especially when location data are error-prone.

Improving breast cancer survival analysis through competition-based multidimensional modeling.

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Erhan Bilal

Full Text Available Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women and is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths annually. As with most cancers, it is a heterogeneous disease and different breast cancer subtypes are treated differently. Understanding the difference in prognosis for breast cancer based on its molecular and phenotypic features is one avenue for improving treatment by matching the proper treatment with molecular subtypes of the disease. In this work, we employed a competition-based approach to modeling breast cancer prognosis using large datasets containing genomic and clinical information and an online real-time leaderboard program used to speed feedback to the modeling team and to encourage each modeler to work towards achieving a higher ranked submission. We find that machine learning methods combined with molecular features selected based on expert prior knowledge can improve survival predictions compared to current best-in-class methodologies and that ensemble models trained across multiple user submissions systematically outperform individual models within the ensemble. We also find that model scores are highly consistent across multiple independent evaluations. This study serves as the pilot phase of a much larger competition open to the whole research community, with the goal of understanding general strategies for model optimization using clinical and molecular profiling data and providing an objective, transparent system for assessing prognostic models.

Estimating quality adjusted progression free survival of first-line treatments for EGFR mutation positive non small cell lung cancer patients in The Netherlands

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Verduyn S

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Gefitinib, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor, is an effective treatment in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC patients with an activating mutation in the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR. Randomised clinical trials showed a benefit in progression free survival for gefitinib versus doublet chemotherapy regimens in patients with an activated EGFR mutation (EGFR M+. From a patient perspective, progression free survival is important, but so is health-related quality of life. Therefore, this analysis evaluates the Quality Adjusted progression free survival of gefitinib versus three relevant doublet chemotherapies (gemcitabine/cisplatin (Gem/Cis; pemetrexed/cisplatin (Pem/Cis; paclitaxel/carboplatin (Pac/Carb in a Dutch health care setting in patients with EGFR M+ stage IIIB/IV NSCLC. This study uses progression free survival rather than overall survival for its time frame in order to better compare the treatments and to account for the influence that subsequent treatment lines would have on overall survival analysis. Methods Mean progression free survival for Pac/Carb was obtained by extrapolating the median progression free survival as reported in the Iressa-Pan-Asia Study (IPASS. Data from a network meta-analysis was used to estimate the mean progression free survival for therapies of interest relative to Pac/Carb. Adjustment for health-related quality of life was done by incorporating utilities for the Dutch population, obtained by converting FACT-L data (from IPASS to utility values and multiplying these with the mean progression free survival for each treatment arm to determine the Quality Adjusted progression free survival. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine 95% credibility intervals. Results The Quality Adjusted progression free survival (PFS (mean, (95% credibility interval was 5.2 months (4.5; 5.8 for Gem/Cis, 5.3 months (4.6; 6.1 for Pem/Cis; 4.9 months (4.4; 5.5 for Pac/Carb and 8

Post-release survival of surf scoters following an oil spill: an experimental approach to evaluating rehabilitation success

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De La Cruz, Susan E. W.; Takekawa, John Y.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Yee, Julie; Golightly, Richard T.; Massey, Greg; Henkel, Laird A.; Larsen, Scott; Ziccardi, Michael

2013-01-01

Birds are often the most numerous vertebrates damaged and rehabilitated in marine oil spills; however, the efficacy of avian rehabilitation is frequently debated and rarely examined experimentally. We compared survival of three radio-marked treatment groups, oiled, rehabilitated (ORHB), un-oiled, rehabilitated (RHB), and un-oiled, non-rehabilitated (CON), in an experimental approach to examine post-release survival of surf scoters (Melanitta perspicillata) following the 2007 M/V Cosco Busan spill in San Francisco Bay. Live encounter-dead recovery modeling indicated that survival differed among treatment groups and over time since release. The survival estimate (±SE) for ORHB was 0.143 ± 0.107 compared to CON (0.498 ± 0.168) and RHB groups (0.772 ± 0.229), suggesting scoters tolerated the rehabilitation process itself well, but oiling resulted in markedly lower survival. Future efforts to understand the physiological effects of oil type and severity on scoters are needed to improve post-release survival of this species.

State Estimation of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor Using Improved Square Root UKF

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Bo Xu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on an improved square root unscented Kalman filter (SRUKF and its application for rotor speed and position estimation of permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM. The approach, which combines the SRUKF and strong tracking filter, uses the minimal skew simplex transformation to reduce the number of the sigma points, and utilizes the square root filtering to reduce computational errors. The time-varying fading factor and softening factor are introduced to self-adjust the gain matrices and the state forecast covariance square root matrix, which can realize the residuals orthogonality and force the SRUKF to track the real state rapidly. The theoretical analysis of the improved SRUKF and implementation details for PMSM state estimation are examined. The simulation results show that the improved SRUKF has higher nonlinear approximation accuracy, stronger numerical stability and computational efficiency, and it is an effective and powerful tool for PMSM state estimation under the conditions of step response or load disturbance.

Interventions for weight reduction in obesity to improve survival in women with endometrial cancer.

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Kitson, Sarah; Ryan, Neil; MacKintosh, Michelle L; Edmondson, Richard; Duffy, James Mn; Crosbie, Emma J

2018-02-01

Diagnoses of endometrial cancer are increasing secondary to the rising prevalence of obesity. Obesity plays an important role in promoting the development of endometrial cancer, by inducing a state of unopposed oestrogen excess, insulin resistance and inflammation. It also affects treatment, increasing the risk of surgical complications and the complexity of radiotherapy planning, and may additionally impact on subsequent survival. Weight-loss interventions have been associated with improvements in breast and colorectal cancer-specific survival as well as a reduction in the risk of cardiovascular disease, a frequent cause of death in endometrial cancer survivors. To determine the impact of weight-loss interventions, in addition to standard management of endometrial cancer, on overall survival and the frequency of adverse events.Secondary objectives include an assessment of weight-loss interventions on endometrial cancer-specific survival, weight loss achieved, cardiovascular event frequency and quality of life both overall and stratified according to patient body mass index (BMI), where possible. This review searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase and reference lists of articles, trial registries, and international gynaecological oncology conference abstracts from inception to January 2018. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions to facilitate weight loss in overweight or obese women undergoing treatment for, or previously treated for, endometrial cancer were selected. Two review authors independently selected studies, assessed trial quality, and extracted data with disagreements resolved by a third review author. Study authors were contacted to obtain missing data, including details of any adverse events. We included three RCTs in the review, randomising a total of 161 overweight and obese women with endometrial cancer. All studies compared combined behavioural and lifestyle interventions to facilitate weight loss

Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

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Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

2015-07-01

Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Traditional Chinese medicine as adjunctive therapy improves the long-term survival of lung cancer patients.

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Liao, Yueh-Hsiang; Li, Chia-Ing; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Lin, Jaung-Geng; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Li, Tsai-Chung

2017-12-01

Traditional Chinese medicine is one of the popular alternative treatments for cancer, mainly enhancing host immune response and reducing adverse effect of chemotherapy. This study first explored traditional Chinese medicine treatment effect on long-term survival of lung cancer patients. This study evaluated whether traditional Chinese medicine combined with conventional cancer treatment improved overall survival of lung cancer patients. We had conducted a retrospective cohort study on 111,564 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients in 2000-2009 from National Health Insurance Program database. A total of 23,803 (21.31%) patients used traditional Chinese medicine for lung cancer care. Eligible participants were followed up until 2011 with a mean follow-up period of 1.96 years (standard deviation 2.55) for non-TCM users and 3.04 years (2.85) for traditional Chinese medicine users. Patients with traditional Chinese medicine utilization were significantly more likely to have a 32% decreased risk of death [hazard ratio = 0.62; 95% confidence interval = 0.61-0.63], compared with patients without traditional Chinese medicine utilization after multivariate adjustment. We also observed a similar significant reduction risk across various subgroups of chronic lung diseases. Qing Zao Jiu Fei Tang was the most effective traditional Chinese medicine agent for mortality reduction both in the entire lung cancer (0.81; 0.72-0.91) and matched populations (0.86; 0.78-0.95). This study demonstrated adjunctive therapy with traditional Chinese medicine may improve overall survival of lung cancer patients. This study also suggested traditional Chinese medicine may be used as an adjunctive therapy for cancer treatment. These observational findings need being validated by future randomized controlled trials to rule out the possibility of effect due to holistic care.

Genetic modification of embryonic stem cells with VEGF enhances cell survival and improves cardiac function.

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Xie, Xiaoyan; Cao, Feng; Sheikh, Ahmad Y; Li, Zongjin; Connolly, Andrew J; Pei, Xuetao; Li, Ren-Ke; Robbins, Robert C; Wu, Joseph C

2007-01-01

Cardiac stem cell therapy remains hampered by acute donor cell death posttransplantation and the lack of reliable methods for tracking cell survival in vivo. We hypothesize that cells transfected with inducible vascular endothelial growth factor 165 (VEGF(165)) can improve their survival as monitored by novel molecular imaging techniques. Mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells were transfected with an inducible, bidirectional tetracycline (Bi-Tet) promoter driving VEGF(165) and renilla luciferase (Rluc). Addition of doxycycline induced Bi-Tet expression of VEGF(165) and Rluc significantly compared to baseline (p<0.05). Expression of VEGF(165) enhanced ES cell proliferation and inhibited apoptosis as determined by Annexin-V staining. For noninvasive imaging, ES cells were transduced with a double fusion (DF) reporter gene consisting of firefly luciferase and enhanced green fluorescence protein (Fluc-eGFP). There was a robust correlation between cell number and Fluc activity (R(2)=0.99). Analysis by immunostaining, histology, and RT-PCR confirmed that expression of Bi-Tet and DF systems did not affect ES cell self-renewal or pluripotency. ES cells were differentiated into beating embryoid bodies expressing cardiac markers such as troponin, Nkx2.5, and beta-MHC. Afterward, 5 x 10(5) cells obtained from these beating embryoid bodies or saline were injected into the myocardium of SV129 mice (n=36) following ligation of the left anterior descending (LAD) artery. Bioluminescence imaging (BLI) and echocardiography showed that VEGF(165) induction led to significant improvements in both transplanted cell survival and cardiac function (p<0.05). This is the first study to demonstrate imaging of embryonic stem cell-mediated gene therapy targeting cardiovascular disease. With further validation, this platform may have broad applications for current basic research and further clinical studies.

Counteracting estimation bias and social influence to improve the wisdom of crowds.

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Kao, Albert B; Berdahl, Andrew M; Hartnett, Andrew T; Lutz, Matthew J; Bak-Coleman, Joseph B; Ioannou, Christos C; Giam, Xingli; Couzin, Iain D

2018-04-01

Aggregating multiple non-expert opinions into a collective estimate can improve accuracy across many contexts. However, two sources of error can diminish collective wisdom: individual estimation biases and information sharing between individuals. Here, we measure individual biases and social influence rules in multiple experiments involving hundreds of individuals performing a classic numerosity estimation task. We first investigate how existing aggregation methods, such as calculating the arithmetic mean or the median, are influenced by these sources of error. We show that the mean tends to overestimate, and the median underestimate, the true value for a wide range of numerosities. Quantifying estimation bias, and mapping individual bias to collective bias, allows us to develop and validate three new aggregation measures that effectively counter sources of collective estimation error. In addition, we present results from a further experiment that quantifies the social influence rules that individuals employ when incorporating personal estimates with social information. We show that the corrected mean is remarkably robust to social influence, retaining high accuracy in the presence or absence of social influence, across numerosities and across different methods for averaging social information. Using knowledge of estimation biases and social influence rules may therefore be an inexpensive and general strategy to improve the wisdom of crowds. © 2018 The Author(s).

Cancer survival for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: a national study of survival rates and excess mortality.

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Condon, John R; Zhang, Xiaohua; Baade, Peter; Griffiths, Kalinda; Cunningham, Joan; Roder, David M; Coory, Michael; Jelfs, Paul L; Threlfall, Tim

2014-01-31

National cancer survival statistics are available for the total Australian population but not Indigenous Australians, although their cancer mortality rates are known to be higher than those of other Australians. We aimed to validate analysis methods and report cancer survival rates for Indigenous Australians as the basis for regular national reporting. We used national cancer registrations data to calculate all-cancer and site-specific relative survival for Indigenous Australians (compared with non-Indigenous Australians) diagnosed in 2001-2005. Because of limited availability of Indigenous life tables, we validated and used cause-specific survival (rather than relative survival) for proportional hazards regression to analyze time trends and regional variation in all-cancer survival between 1991 and 2005. Survival was lower for Indigenous than non-Indigenous Australians for all cancers combined and for many cancer sites. The excess mortality of Indigenous people with cancer was restricted to the first three years after diagnosis, and greatest in the first year. Survival was lower for rural and remote than urban residents; this disparity was much greater for Indigenous people. Survival improved between 1991 and 2005 for non-Indigenous people (mortality decreased by 28%), but to a much lesser extent for Indigenous people (11%) and only for those in remote areas; cancer survival did not improve for urban Indigenous residents. Cancer survival is lower for Indigenous than other Australians, for all cancers combined and many individual cancer sites, although more accurate recording of Indigenous status by cancer registers is required before the extent of this disadvantage can be known with certainty. Cancer care for Indigenous Australians needs to be considerably improved; cancer diagnosis, treatment, and support services need to be redesigned specifically to be accessible and acceptable to Indigenous people.

Improving PERSIANN-CCS rain estimation using probabilistic approach and multi-sensors information

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Karbalaee, N.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; Kirstetter, P.; Hong, Y.

2016-12-01

This presentation discusses the recent implemented approaches to improve the rainfall estimation from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS). PERSIANN-CCS is an infrared (IR) based algorithm being integrated in the IMERG (Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission GPM) to create a precipitation product in 0.1x0.1degree resolution over the chosen domain 50N to 50S every 30 minutes. Although PERSIANN-CCS has a high spatial and temporal resolution, it overestimates or underestimates due to some limitations.PERSIANN-CCS can estimate rainfall based on the extracted information from IR channels at three different temperature threshold levels (220, 235, and 253k). This algorithm relies only on infrared data to estimate rainfall indirectly from this channel which cause missing the rainfall from warm clouds and false estimation for no precipitating cold clouds. In this research the effectiveness of using other channels of GOES satellites such as visible and water vapors has been investigated. By using multi-sensors the precipitation can be estimated based on the extracted information from multiple channels. Also, instead of using the exponential function for estimating rainfall from cloud top temperature, the probabilistic method has been used. Using probability distributions of precipitation rates instead of deterministic values has improved the rainfall estimation for different type of clouds.

Augmented therapy of extensive Hodgkin's disease: radiation to bulk disease or prolongation of induction chemotherapy did not improve survival

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rafla, S.; Coleman, M.; Propert, K.; Glicksman, A.; Peterson, B.; Nissen, N.; Brunner, K.; Kaufmann, T.; Holland, J.; Anderson, J.; Gottlieb, A.

1996-01-01

Purpose: This prospective, randomized trial in extensive, untreated Hodgkin's disease was undertaken to assess the potential benefit of augmented therapy (12 months chemotherapy or radiation to 'bulk' disease) compared to standard, six months chemotherapy. Materials and Methods: Two-hundred fifty-eight patients, mostly stage IV, were randomized to four treatment regimens consisting of 6 cycles of CCNU, vinblastine, procarbazine, and prednisone (CVPP); 12 cycles of CVPP; 6 cycles of CVPP followed by 25 Gray (Gy) radiotherapy; or 3 cycles CVPP, 25 Gy radiotherapy, and 3 cycles CVPP. Results: Complete remissions were achieved in 65% of all patients. A 58% overall 5 year survival was obtained. Relapses in irradiated areas of bulk disease occurred in only 6% of responding patients. There was, however, no statistical difference in response frequency, disease free survival or overall survival amongst the four regimens. Elderly patients responded less frequently. Conclusion: While radiotherapy provided control of local (bulk) disease, no impact on overall survival was apparent. Likewise doubling the duration of chemotherapy did not improve response or survival. Augmentation of therapy with either radiotherapy or more chemotherapy in this study was of no benefit when compared to the standard six months of treatment

The accuracy of survival time prediction for patients with glioma is improved by measuring mitotic spindle checkpoint gene expression.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Bie

Full Text Available Identification of gene expression changes that improve prediction of survival time across all glioma grades would be clinically useful. Four Affymetrix GeneChip datasets from the literature, containing data from 771 glioma samples representing all WHO grades and eight normal brain samples, were used in an ANOVA model to screen for transcript changes that correlated with grade. Observations were confirmed and extended using qPCR assays on RNA derived from 38 additional glioma samples and eight normal samples for which survival data were available. RNA levels of eight major mitotic spindle assembly checkpoint (SAC genes (BUB1, BUB1B, BUB3, CENPE, MAD1L1, MAD2L1, CDC20, TTK significantly correlated with glioma grade and six also significantly correlated with survival time. In particular, the level of BUB1B expression was highly correlated with survival time (p<0.0001, and significantly outperformed all other measured parameters, including two standards; WHO grade and MIB-1 (Ki-67 labeling index. Measurement of the expression levels of a small set of SAC genes may complement histological grade and other clinical parameters for predicting survival time.

Postmastectomy Radiation Therapy Is Associated With Improved Survival in Node-Positive Male Breast Cancer: A Population Analysis

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Abrams, Matthew J., E-mail: mabrams@tuftsmedicalcenter.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tufts University School of Medicine, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Koffer, Paul P. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tufts University School of Medicine, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Wazer, David E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tufts University School of Medicine, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, The Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Rhode Island Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island (United States); Hepel, Jaroslaw T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Rhode Island Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island (United States)

2017-06-01

Purpose: Because of its rarity, there are no randomized trials investigating postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT) in male breast cancer. This study retrospectively examines the impact of PMRT in male breast cancer patients in the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Methods and Materials: The SEER database 8.3.2 was queried for men ages 20+ with a diagnosis of localized or regional nonmetastatic invasive ductal/lobular carcinoma from 1998 to 2013. Included patients were treated by modified radical mastectomy (MRM), with or without adjuvant external beam radiation. Univariate and multivariate analyses evaluated predictors for PMRT use after MRM. Kaplan-Meier overall survival (OS) curves of the entire cohort and a case-matched cohort were calculated and compared by the log-rank test. Cox regression was used for multivariate survival analyses. Results: A total of 1933 patients were included in the unmatched cohort. There was no difference in 5-year OS between those who received PMRT and those who did not (78% vs 77%, respectively, P=.371); however, in the case-matched analysis, PMRT was associated with improved OS at 5 years (83% vs 54%, P<.001). On subset analysis of the unmatched cohort, PMRT was associated with improved OS in men with 1 to 3 positive nodes (5-year OS 79% vs 72% P=.05) and those with 4+ positive nodes (5-year OS 73% vs 53% P<.001). On multivariate analysis of the unmatched cohort, independent predictors for improved OS were use of PMRT: HR=0.551 (0.412-0.737) and estrogen receptor–positive disease: HR=0.577 (0.339-0.983). Predictors for a survival detriment were higher grade 3/4: HR=1.825 (1.105-3.015), larger tumor T2: HR=1.783 (1.357-2.342), T3/T4: HR=2.683 (1.809-3.978), higher N-stage: N1 HR=1.574 (1.184-2.091), N2/N3: HR=2.328 (1.684-3.218), black race: HR=1.689 (1.222-2.336), and older age 81+: HR=4.164 (1.497-11.582). Conclusions: There may be a survival benefit with the

Vibration Suppression for Improving the Estimation of Kinematic Parameters on Industrial Robots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Alejandro Elvira-Ortiz

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Vibration is a phenomenon that is present on every industrial system such as CNC machines and industrial robots. Moreover, sensors used to estimate angular position of a joint in an industrial robot are severely affected by vibrations and lead to wrong estimations. This paper proposes a methodology for improving the estimation of kinematic parameters on industrial robots through a proper suppression of the vibration components present on signals acquired from two primary sensors: accelerometer and gyroscope. A Kalman filter is responsible for the filtering of spurious vibration. Additionally, a sensor fusion technique is used to merge information from both sensors and improve the results obtained using each sensor separately. The methodology is implemented in a proprietary hardware signal processor and tested in an ABB IRB 140 industrial robot, first by analyzing the motion profile of only one joint and then by estimating the path tracking of two welding tasks: one rectangular and another one circular. Results from this work prove that the sensor fusion technique accompanied by proper suppression of vibrations delivers better estimation than other proposed techniques.

Evaluating the Impact of Zimbabwe’s Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission Program: Population-Level Estimates of HIV-Free Infant Survival Pre-Option A

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Buzdugan, Raluca; McCoy, Sandra I.; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Kang Dufour, Mi-Suk; Petersen, Maya; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Mushavi, Angela; Mujuru, Hilda Angela; Mahomva, Agnes; Musarandega, Reuben; Hakobyan, Anna; Mugurungi, Owen; Cowan, Frances M.; Padian, Nancy S.

2015-01-01

Objective We estimated HIV-free infant survival and mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) rates in Zimbabwe, some of the first community-based estimates from a UNAIDS priority country. Methods In 2012 we surveyed mother-infant pairs residing in the catchment areas of 157 health facilities randomly selected from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Enrolled infants were born 9–18 months before the survey. We collected questionnaires, blood samples for HIV testing, and verbal autopsies for deceased mothers/infants. Estimates were assessed among i) all HIV-exposed infants, as part of an impact evaluation of Option A of the 2010 WHO guidelines (rolled out in Zimbabwe in 2011), and ii) the subgroup of infants unexposed to Option A. We compared province-level MTCT rates measured among women in the community with MTCT rates measured using program monitoring data from facilities serving those communities. Findings Among 8568 women with known HIV serostatus, 1107 (12.9%) were HIV-infected. Among all HIV-exposed infants, HIV-free infant survival was 90.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88.7–92.7) and MTCT was 8.8% (95% CI: 6.9–11.1). Sixty-six percent of HIV-exposed infants were still breastfeeding. Among the 762 infants born before Option A was implemented, 90.5% (95% CI: 88.1–92.5) were alive and HIV-uninfected at 9–18 months of age, and 9.1% (95%CI: 7.1–11.7) were HIV-infected. In four provinces, the community-based MTCT rate was higher than the facility-based MTCT rate. In Harare, the community and facility-based rates were 6.0% and 9.1%, respectively. Conclusion By 2012 Zimbabwe had made substantial progress towards the elimination of MTCT. Our HIV-free infant survival and MTCT estimates capture HIV transmissions during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding regardless of whether or not mothers accessed health services. These estimates also provide a baseline against which to measure the impact of Option A guidelines (and subsequently Option B+). PMID:26248197

Net survival after exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls and dioxins: the Yusho study.

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Onozuka, Daisuke; Hirata, Teruaki; Furue, Masutaka

2014-12-01

Net survival is an important measure of the overall outcome of disease management. This net survival is the most appropriate for international comparisons of disease impact between countries or time periods with different patterns of all-cause mortality because it is not influenced by other causes of death. However, little information is available on net survival among Yusho patients, who were accidentally exposed to PCBs and other dioxin-related compounds. We estimated the net survival of 1664 Yusho patients (860 males, 804 females) as Yusho cohort subjects using the unbiased Pohar-Perme method. Among males, 1-, 5-, 10-, and 15-year net survival were 99.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 97.9, 99.9), 99.1% (CI: 95.0, 99.9), 97.4% (CI: 86.5, 99.5), and 97.4% (CI: 84.2, 99.6), respectively. Among females, net survival remained almost constant. 1-, 5-, 10-, and 15-year net survival were generally higher in females than in males. This study provides the first unbiased estimations of net survival among Yusho patients. We confirmed that older male Yusho patients have experienced a significant decrease in net survival. Our results suggest that the excess hazard of PCBs and dioxins must be taken into account when evaluating unbiased estimates of net survival. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvements in breast cancer survival between 1995 and 2012 in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Maj-Britt; Ejlertsen, Bent; Mouridsen, Henning T

2016-01-01

Background Breast cancer mortality has declined from 1995 through 2012 which may be attributed to earlier diagnosis, changes in lifestyle risk factors, and improved treatments. To a large extent the relative contribution of these modalities are unknown. Mammography screening was introduced late...... was extended considerable. Methods A population-based study of 68 842 breast cancer patients registered in the clinical database of the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group in 1995-2012. Comprehensive data on prognostic factors, comorbidity and treatment together with complete follow-up for survival were...... in Denmark; in 1995 around 20% of the Danish female population aged 50-69 was covered by population-based screening, and this was in 2008 extended to the entire population. Breast conserving surgery gradually replaced mastectomy, and sentinel node biopsy was introduced. In the same period adjuvant treatment...

September-March survival of female northern pintails radiotagged in San Joaquin Valley, California

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Fleskes, J.P.; Jarvis, R.L.; Gilmer, D.S.

2002-01-01

To improve understanding of pintail ecology, we radiotagged 191 hatch-year (HY) and 228 after-hatch-year (AHY) female northern pintails (Anas acuta) in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), and studied their survival throughout central California, USA, during September-March, 1991-1994. We used adjusted Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) values to contrast known-fate models and examine variation in survival rates relative to year, interval, wintering region (AJV, other central California), pintail age, body mass at capture, capture date, capture area, and radio type. The best-fitting model included only interval x year and age x body mass; the next 2 best-fitting models also included wintering region and capture date. Hunting caused 83% of the mortalities we observed, and survival was consistently lower during hunting than nonhunting intervals. Nonhunting and hunting mortality during early winter was highest during the 1991-1992 drought year. Early-winter survival improved during the study along with habitat conditions in the Grassland Ecological Area (EA), where most radiotagged pintails spent early winter. Survival was more closely related to body mass at capture for HY than AHY pintails, even after accounting for the later arrival (based on capture date) of HY pintails, suggesting HY pintails are less adept at improving their condition. Thus, productivity estimates based on harvest age ratios may be biased if relative vulnerability of HY and AHY pintails is assumed to be constant because fall body condition of pintails may vary greatly among years. Cumulative winter survival was 75.6% (95% CI = 68.3% to 81.7%) for AHY and 65.4% (56.7% to 73.1%) for HY female pintails. Daily odds of survival in the cotton-agriculture landscape of the SJV were -21.3% (-40.3% to +3.7%) lower than in the rice-agriculture landscape of the Sacramento Valley (SACV) and other central California areas. Higher hunting mortality may be 1 reason pintails have declined more in SJV than in SACV.

Prognostic and survival analysis of 837 Chinese colorectal cancer patients.

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Yuan, Ying; Li, Mo-Dan; Hu, Han-Guang; Dong, Cai-Xia; Chen, Jia-Qi; Li, Xiao-Fen; Li, Jing-Jing; Shen, Hong

2013-05-07

To develop a prognostic model to predict survival of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). Survival data of 837 CRC patients undergoing surgery between 1996 and 2006 were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression model to reveal the prognostic factors for CRC. All data were recorded using a standard data form and analyzed using SPSS version 18.0 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, United States). Survival curves were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The log rank test was used to assess differences in survival. Univariate hazard ratios and significant and independent predictors of disease-specific survival and were identified by Cox proportional hazard analysis. The stepwise procedure was set to a threshold of 0.05. Statistical significance was defined as P analysis suggested age, preoperative obstruction, serum carcinoembryonic antigen level at diagnosis, status of resection, tumor size, histological grade, pathological type, lymphovascular invasion, invasion of adjacent organs, and tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging were positive prognostic factors (P analysis showed a significant statistical difference in 3-year survival among these groups: LNR1, 73%; LNR2, 55%; and LNR3, 42% (P analysis results showed that histological grade, depth of bowel wall invasion, and number of metastatic lymph nodes were the most important prognostic factors for CRC if we did not consider the interaction of the TNM staging system (P < 0.05). When the TNM staging was taken into account, histological grade lost its statistical significance, while the specific TNM staging system showed a statistically significant difference (P < 0.0001). The overall survival of CRC patients has improved between 1996 and 2006. LNR is a powerful factor for estimating the survival of stage III CRC patients.

Is low survival for cancer in Eastern Europe due principally to late stage at diagnosis?

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Minicozzi, Pamela; Walsh, Paul M; Sánchez, Maria-José; Trama, Annalisa; Innos, Kaire; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Dimitrova, Nadya; Botta, Laura; Johannesen, Tom B; Rossi, Silvia; Sant, Milena

2018-04-01

Cancer survival has persistently been shown to be worse for Eastern European and UK/Ireland patients than those of other European regions. This is often attributed to later stage at diagnosis. However, few stage-specific survival comparisons are available, so it is unclear whether poorer quality treatment or other factors also contribute. For the first time, European cancer registries have provided stage-at-diagnosis data to EUROCARE, enabling population-based stage-specific survival estimates across Europe. In this retrospective observational study, stage at diagnosis (as TNM, condensed TNM, or Extent of Disease) was analysed for patients (≥15 years) from 15 countries grouped into 4 regions (Northern Europe: Norway; Central Europe: Austria, France, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands; Southern Europe: Croatia, Italy, Slovenia, and Spain; and Eastern Europe: Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia), diagnosed with 7 malignant cancers in 2000-2007, and followed to end of 2008. A new variable (reconstructed stage) was created which used all available stage information. Age-standardised 5-year relative survival (RS) by reconstructed stage was estimated and compared between regions. Excess risks of cancer death in the 5 years after diagnosis were also estimated, taking age, sex and stage into account. Low proportions of Eastern European patients were diagnosed with local stage cancers and high proportions with metastatic stage cancers. Stage-specific RS (especially for non-metastatic disease) was generally lower for Eastern European patients. After adjusting for age, sex, and stage, excess risks of death remained higher for Eastern European patients than for European patients in general. Late diagnosis alone does not explain worse cancer survival in Eastern Europe: greater risk of cancer death together with worse stage-specific survival suggest less effective care, probably in part because fewer resources are allocated to health care than in the rest of

Childhood cancer incidence and survival in Japan and England: A population-based study (1993-2010).

Science.gov (United States)

Nakata, Kayo; Ito, Yuri; Magadi, Winnie; Bonaventure, Audrey; Stiller, Charles A; Katanoda, Kota; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Miyashiro, Isao; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy; Rachet, Bernard

2018-02-01

The present study aimed to compare cancer incidence and trends in survival for children diagnosed in Japan and England, using population-based cancer registry data. The analysis was based on 5192 children with cancer (age 0-14 years) from 6 prefectural cancer registries in Japan and 21 295 children diagnosed in England during 1993-2010. Differences in incidence rates between the 2 countries were measured with Poisson regression models. Overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Incidence rates for Hodgkin lymphoma, renal tumors and Ewing sarcomas in England were more than twice as high as those in Japan. Incidence of germ cell tumors, hepatic tumors, neuroblastoma and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) was higher in Japan than in England. Incidence of all cancers combined decreased in Japan throughout the period 1993 to 2010, which was mainly explained by a decrease in registration of neuroblastoma in infants. For many cancers, 5-year survival improved in both countries. The improvement in survival in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) was particularly dramatic in both countries. However, 5-year survival remained less than 80% in 2005-2008 in both countries for AML, brain tumors, soft tissue sarcomas, malignant bone tumors and neuroblastoma (age 1-14 years). There were significant differences in incidence of several cancers between countries, suggesting variation in genetic susceptibility and possibly environmental factors. The decrease in incidence for all cancers combined in Japan was related to the cessation of the national screening program for neuroblastoma. The large improvement in survival in CML coincided with the introduction of effective therapy (imatinib). © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

Juvenile survival in a neotropical migratory songbird is lower than expected.

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Matthew I McKim-Louder

Full Text Available Attempts to estimate and identify factors influencing first-year survival in passerines, survival between fledging and the first reproductive attempt (i.e. juvenile survival, have largely been confounded by natal dispersal, particularly in long-distance migratory passerines. We studied Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea breeding in nest boxes to estimate first-year survival while accounting for biases related to dispersal that are common in mark-recapture studies. The natal dispersal distribution (median = 1420 m; n = 429 and a distance-dependent recruitment rate, which controls for effects of study site configuration, both indicated a pattern of short-distance natal dispersal. This pattern was consistent with results of a systematic survey for birds returning outside the nest box study sites (up to 30 km in all directions within a majority (81% of total available bottomland forest habitat, further suggesting that permanent emigration outside of the study system was rare. We used multistate mark-recapture modeling to estimate first-year survival and incorporated factors thought to influence survival while accounting for the potential confounding effects of dispersal on recapture probabilities for warblers that fledged during 2004-2009 (n = 6093. Overall, the average first-year survival for warblers reared without cowbird nestmates was 0.11 (95% CI = 0.09-0.13, decreased with fledging date (0.22 early to 0.03 late and averaged 40% lower for warblers reared with a brood parasite nestmate. First-year survival was less than half of the rate thought to represent population replacement in migratory passerines (∼0.30. This very low rate suggests that surviving the first year of life for many Neotropical migratory species is even more difficult than previously thought, forcing us to rethink estimates used in population models.

Improved estimates of coordinate error for molecular replacement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oeffner, Robert D.; Bunkóczi, Gábor; McCoy, Airlie J.; Read, Randy J.

2013-01-01

A function for estimating the effective root-mean-square deviation in coordinates between two proteins has been developed that depends on both the sequence identity and the size of the protein and is optimized for use with molecular replacement in Phaser. A top peak translation-function Z-score of over 8 is found to be a reliable metric of when molecular replacement has succeeded. The estimate of the root-mean-square deviation (r.m.s.d.) in coordinates between the model and the target is an essential parameter for calibrating likelihood functions for molecular replacement (MR). Good estimates of the r.m.s.d. lead to good estimates of the variance term in the likelihood functions, which increases signal to noise and hence success rates in the MR search. Phaser has hitherto used an estimate of the r.m.s.d. that only depends on the sequence identity between the model and target and which was not optimized for the MR likelihood functions. Variance-refinement functionality was added to Phaser to enable determination of the effective r.m.s.d. that optimized the log-likelihood gain (LLG) for a correct MR solution. Variance refinement was subsequently performed on a database of over 21 000 MR problems that sampled a range of sequence identities, protein sizes and protein fold classes. Success was monitored using the translation-function Z-score (TFZ), where a TFZ of 8 or over for the top peak was found to be a reliable indicator that MR had succeeded for these cases with one molecule in the asymmetric unit. Good estimates of the r.m.s.d. are correlated with the sequence identity and the protein size. A new estimate of the r.m.s.d. that uses these two parameters in a function optimized to fit the mean of the refined variance is implemented in Phaser and improves MR outcomes. Perturbing the initial estimate of the r.m.s.d. from the mean of the distribution in steps of standard deviations of the distribution further increases MR success rates

Improving chemical species tomography of turbulent flows using covariance estimation.

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Grauer, Samuel J; Hadwin, Paul J; Daun, Kyle J

2017-05-01

Chemical species tomography (CST) experiments can be divided into limited-data and full-rank cases. Both require solving ill-posed inverse problems, and thus the measurement data must be supplemented with prior information to carry out reconstructions. The Bayesian framework formalizes the role of additive information, expressed as the mean and covariance of a joint-normal prior probability density function. We present techniques for estimating the spatial covariance of a flow under limited-data and full-rank conditions. Our results show that incorporating a covariance estimate into CST reconstruction via a Bayesian prior increases the accuracy of instantaneous estimates. Improvements are especially dramatic in real-time limited-data CST, which is directly applicable to many industrially relevant experiments.

The utility of harvest recoveries of marked individuals to assess polar bear (Ursus maritimus) survival

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Peacock, Elizabeth; Laake, Jeff; Laidre, Kristin L.; Born, Erik W.; Atkinson, Stephen N.

2012-01-01

Management of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations requires the periodic assessment of life history metrics such as survival rate. This information is frequently obtained during short-term capture and marking efforts (e.g., over the course of three years) that result in hundreds of marked bears remaining in the population after active marking is finished. Using 10 additional years of harvest recovery subsequent to a period of active marking, we provide updated estimates of annual survival for polar bears in the Baffin Bay population of Greenland and Canada. Our analysis suggests a decline in survival of polar bears since the period of active marking that ended in 1997; some of the decline in survival can likely be attributed to a decline in springtime ice concentration over the continental shelf of Baffin Island. The variance around the survival estimates is comparatively high because of the declining number of marks available; therefore, results must be interpreted with caution. The variance of the estimates of survival increased most substantially in the sixth year post-marking. When survival estimates calculated with recovery-only and recapture-recovery data sets from the period of active marking were compared, survival rates were indistinguishable. However, for the period when fewer marks were available, survival estimates were lower using the recovery-only data set, which indicates that part of the decline we detected for 2003 – 09 may be due to using only harvest recovery data. Nevertheless, the decline in the estimates of survival is consistent with population projections derived from harvest numbers and earlier vital rates, as well as with an observed decline in the extent of sea ice habitat.

Positive end-expiratory pressure improves survival in a rodent model of cardiopulmonary resuscitation using high-dose epinephrine.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

McCaul, Conán

2009-10-01

Multiple interventions have been tested in models of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) to optimize drug use, chest compressions, and ventilation. None has studied the effects of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) on outcome. We hypothesized that because PEEP can reverse pulmonary atelectasis, lower pulmonary vascular resistance, and potentially improve cardiac output, its use during CPR would increase survival.

Association Between Treatment at a High-Volume Facility and Improved Survival for Radiation-Treated Men With High-Risk Prostate Cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Yu-Wei [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Mahal, Brandon A. [Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Muralidhar, Vinayak [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Nezolosky, Michelle [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Beard, Clair J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Den, Robert B. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Feng, Felix Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan Medical Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Hoffman, Karen E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Martin, Neil E.; Orio, Peter F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Nguyen, Paul L., E-mail: pnguyen@LROC.harvard.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

2016-03-15

Purpose: Although the association between higher hospital volume and improved outcomes has been well-documented in surgery, there is little data about whether this effect exists for radiation-treated patients. We investigated whether treatment at a radiation facility that treats a high volume of prostate cancer patients is associated with improved survival for men with high-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We used the National Cancer Database (NCDB) to identity patients diagnosed with prostate cancer from 2004 to 2006. The radiation case volume (RCV) of each hospital was based on its number of radiation-treated prostate cancer patients. We used propensity-score based analysis to compare the overall survival (OS) of high-risk prostate cancer patients in high versus low RCV hospitals. Primary endpoint is overall survival. Covariates adjusted for were tumor characteristics, sociodemographic factors, radiation type, and use of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Results: A total of 19,565 radiation-treated high-risk patients were identified. Median follow-up was 81.0 months (range: 1-108 months). When RCV was coded as a continuous variable, each increment of 100 radiation-managed patients was associated with improved OS (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95-0.98; P<.0001) after adjusting for known confounders. For illustrative purposes, when RCV was dichotomized at the 80th percentile (43 patients/year), high RCV was associated with improved OS (7-year overall survival 76% vs 74%, log-rank test P=.0005; AHR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86-0.96, P=.0005). This association remained significant when RCV was dichotomized at 75th (37 patients/year), 90th (60 patients/year), and 95th (84 patients/year) percentiles but not the 50th (19 patients/year). Conclusions: Our results suggest that treatment at centers with higher prostate cancer radiation case volume is associated with improved OS for radiation-treated men with high-risk prostate

Monitoring of Subyearling Chinook Salmon Survival and Passage at Bonneville Dam, Summer 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ploskey, Gene R.; Weiland, Mark A.; Carlson, Thomas J.

2012-09-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate dam passage and route specific survival rates for subyearling Chinook salmon smolts to a primary survival-detection array located 81 km downstream of the dam, evaluate a BGS located in the B2 forebay, and evaluate effects of two spill treatments. The 2010 study also provided estimates of forebay residence time, tailrace egress time, spill passage efficiency (SPE), and spill + B2 Corner Collector (B2CC) efficiency, as required in the Columbia Basin Fish Accords. In addition, the study estimated forebay passage survival and survival of fish traveling from the forebay entrance array, through the dam and downstream through 81 km of tailwater.

Modeling the airborne survival of influenza virus in a residential setting: the impacts of home humidification

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Background Laboratory research studies indicate that aerosolized influenza viruses survive for longer periods at low relative humidity (RH) conditions. Further analysis has shown that absolute humidity (AH) may be an improved predictor of virus survival in the environment. Maintaining airborne moisture levels that reduce survival of the virus in the air and on surfaces could be another tool for managing public health risks of influenza. Methods A multi-zone indoor air quality model was used to evaluate the ability of portable humidifiers to control moisture content of the air and the potential related benefit of decreasing survival of influenza viruses in single-family residences. We modeled indoor AH and influenza virus concentrations during winter months (Northeast US) using the CONTAM multi-zone indoor air quality model. A two-story residential template was used under two different ventilation conditions - forced hot air and radiant heating. Humidity was evaluated on a room-specific and whole house basis. Estimates of emission rates for influenza virus were particle-size specific and derived from published studies and included emissions during both tidal breathing and coughing events. The survival of the influenza virus was determined based on the established relationship between AH and virus survival. Results The presence of a portable humidifier with an output of 0.16 kg water per hour in the bedroom resulted in an increase in median sleeping hours AH/RH levels of 11 to 19% compared to periods without a humidifier present. The associated percent decrease in influenza virus survival was 17.5 - 31.6%. Distribution of water vapor through a residence was estimated to yield 3 to 12% increases in AH/RH and 7.8-13.9% reductions in influenza virus survival. Conclusion This modeling analysis demonstrates the potential benefit of portable residential humidifiers in reducing the survival of aerosolized influenza virus by controlling humidity indoors. PMID:20815876

Modeling the airborne survival of influenza virus in a residential setting: the impacts of home humidification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Myatt Theodore A

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Laboratory research studies indicate that aerosolized influenza viruses survive for longer periods at low relative humidity (RH conditions. Further analysis has shown that absolute humidity (AH may be an improved predictor of virus survival in the environment. Maintaining airborne moisture levels that reduce survival of the virus in the air and on surfaces could be another tool for managing public health risks of influenza. Methods A multi-zone indoor air quality model was used to evaluate the ability of portable humidifiers to control moisture content of the air and the potential related benefit of decreasing survival of influenza viruses in single-family residences. We modeled indoor AH and influenza virus concentrations during winter months (Northeast US using the CONTAM multi-zone indoor air quality model. A two-story residential template was used under two different ventilation conditions - forced hot air and radiant heating. Humidity was evaluated on a room-specific and whole house basis. Estimates of emission rates for influenza virus were particle-size specific and derived from published studies and included emissions during both tidal breathing and coughing events. The survival of the influenza virus was determined based on the established relationship between AH and virus survival. Results The presence of a portable humidifier with an output of 0.16 kg water per hour in the bedroom resulted in an increase in median sleeping hours AH/RH levels of 11 to 19% compared to periods without a humidifier present. The associated percent decrease in influenza virus survival was 17.5 - 31.6%. Distribution of water vapor through a residence was estimated to yield 3 to 12% increases in AH/RH and 7.8-13.9% reductions in influenza virus survival. Conclusion This modeling analysis demonstrates the potential benefit of portable residential humidifiers in reducing the survival of aerosolized influenza virus by controlling humidity

Estimation of body-size traits by photogrammetry in large mammals to inform conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Berger, Joel

2012-10-01

Photography, including remote imagery and camera traps, has contributed substantially to conservation. However, the potential to use photography to understand demography and inform policy is limited. To have practical value, remote assessments must be reasonably accurate and widely deployable. Prior efforts to develop noninvasive methods of estimating trait size have been motivated by a desire to answer evolutionary questions, measure physiological growth, or, in the case of illegal trade, assess economics of horn sizes; but rarely have such methods been directed at conservation. Here I demonstrate a simple, noninvasive photographic technique and address how knowledge of values of individual-specific metrics bears on conservation policy. I used 10 years of data on juvenile moose (Alces alces) to examine whether body size and probability of survival are positively correlated in cold climates. I investigated whether the presence of mothers improved juvenile survival. The posited latter relation is relevant to policy because harvest of adult females has been permitted in some Canadian and American jurisdictions under the assumption that probability of survival of young is independent of maternal presence. The accuracy of estimates of head sizes made from photographs exceeded 98%. The estimates revealed that overwinter juvenile survival had no relation to the juvenile's estimated mass (p < 0.64) and was more strongly associated with maternal presence (p < 0.02) than winter snow depth (p < 0.18). These findings highlight the effects on survival of a social dynamic (the mother-young association) rather than body size and suggest a change in harvest policy will increase survival. Furthermore, photographic imaging of growth of individual juvenile muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) over 3 Arctic winters revealed annual variability in size, which supports the idea that noninvasive monitoring may allow one to detect how some environmental conditions ultimately affect body growth. �

Improving Distribution Resiliency with Microgrids and State and Parameter Estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tuffner, Francis K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Williams, Tess L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Schneider, Kevin P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Elizondo, Marcelo A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sun, Yannan [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Chen-Ching [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xu, Yin [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gup [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-09-30

Modern society relies on low-cost reliable electrical power, both to maintain industry, as well as provide basic social services to the populace. When major disturbances occur, such as Hurricane Katrina or Hurricane Sandy, the nation’s electrical infrastructure can experience significant outages. To help prevent the spread of these outages, as well as facilitating faster restoration after an outage, various aspects of improving the resiliency of the power system are needed. Two such approaches are breaking the system into smaller microgrid sections, and to have improved insight into the operations to detect failures or mis-operations before they become critical. Breaking the system into smaller sections of microgrid islands, power can be maintained in smaller areas where distribution generation and energy storage resources are still available, but bulk power generation is no longer connected. Additionally, microgrid systems can maintain service to local pockets of customers when there has been extensive damage to the local distribution system. However, microgrids are grid connected a majority of the time and implementing and operating a microgrid is much different than when islanded. This report discusses work conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory that developed improvements for simulation tools to capture the characteristics of microgrids and how they can be used to develop new operational strategies. These operational strategies reduce the cost of microgrid operation and increase the reliability and resilience of the nation’s electricity infrastructure. In addition to the ability to break the system into microgrids, improved observability into the state of the distribution grid can make the power system more resilient. State estimation on the transmission system already provides great insight into grid operations and detecting abnormal conditions by leveraging existing measurements. These transmission-level approaches are expanded to using

Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

2014-02-01

Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model

Simvastatin Treatment Improves Survival in a Murine Model of Burn Sepsis

Science.gov (United States)

Beffa, David C; Fischman, Alan J.; Fagan, Shawn P.; Hamrahi, Victoria F.; Kaneki, Masao; Yu, Yong-Ming; Tompkins, Ronald G.; Carter, Edward A.

2014-01-01

Infection is the most common and most serious complication of a major burn injury related to burn size. Despite improvements in antimicrobial therapies sepsis still accounts for 50–60% of deaths in burn patients. Given the acute onset and unpredictable nature of sepsis, primary prevention was rarely attempted in its management. However, recent studies have demonstrated that statin treatment can decrease mortality is a murine model of sepsis by preservation of cardiac function and reversal of inflammatory alterations. In addition, it has been shown that treatment with statins is associated with reduced incidence of sepsis in human patients. In the current study groups of CD1 male mice (n=12) were anesthetized and subjected to a dorsal 30% TBSA scald burn injury. Starting 2 hours post burn, the animals were divided into a treatment group receiving 0.2 µ/g simvastatin or a sham group receiving placebo. Simvastatin and placebo were administered by intraperitoneal injection with two dosing regimens; once daily and every 12 hours. On Post burn day 7 cecal ligation and puncture with a 21-gauge needle was performed under ketamine/xylazine anesthesia and the two different dosing schedules were continued. A simvastatin dose dependant improvement in survival was observed in the burn sepsis model. PMID:21145172

Improved survival with an innovative approach to the treatment of severely burned patients: development of a burn treatment manual.

Science.gov (United States)

Morisada, S; Nosaka, N; Tsukahara, K; Ugawa, T; Sato, K; Ujike, Y

2015-09-30

The management of severely burned patients remains a major issue worldwide as indicated by the high incidence of permanent debilitating complications and poor survival rates. In April 2012, the Advanced Emergency & Critical Care Medical Center of the Okayama University Hospital began implementing guidelines for severely burned patients, distributed as a standard burn treatment manual. The protocol, developed in-house, was validated by comparing the outcomes of patients with severe extensive burns (SEB) treated before and after implementation of these new guidelines at this institution. The patients included in this study had a burn index (BI) ≥30 or a prognostic burn index (PBI = BI + patient's age) ≥100. The survival rate of the patients with BI ≥30 was 65.2% with the traditional treatment and 100% with the new guidelines. Likewise, the survival rate of the patients with PBI ≥100 was 61.1% with the traditional treatment compared to 100% with the new guidelines. Together, these data demonstrate that the new treatment guidelines dramatically improved the treatment outcome and survival of SEB patients.

Anti-viral therapy is associated with improved survival but is underutilised in patients with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma: real-world east and west experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, V L; Yeh, M-L; Le, A K; Jun, M; Saeed, W K; Yang, J D; Huang, C-F; Lee, H Y; Tsai, P-C; Lee, M-H; Giama, N; Kim, N G; Nguyen, P P; Dang, H; Ali, H A; Zhang, N; Huang, J-F; Dai, C-Y; Chuang, W-L; Roberts, L R; Jun, D W; Lim, Y-S; Yu, M-L; Nguyen, M H

2018-07-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. It remains incompletely understood in the real world how anti-viral therapy affects survival after HCC diagnosis. This was an international multicentre cohort study of 2518 HBV-related HCC cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2015. Cox proportional hazards models were utilised to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% (CI) for anti-viral therapy and cirrhosis on patients' risk of death. Approximately, 48% of patients received anti-viral therapy at any time, but only 17% were on therapy at HCC diagnosis (38% at US centres, 11% at Asian centres). Anti-viral therapy would have been indicated for >60% of the patients not on anti-viral therapy based on American criteria. Patients with cirrhosis had lower 5-year survival (34% vs 46%; P < 0.001) while patients receiving anti-viral therapy had increased 5-year survival compared to untreated patients (42% vs 25% with cirrhosis and 58% vs 36% without cirrhosis; P < 0.001 for both). Similar findings were seen for other patient subgroups by cancer stages and cancer treatment types. Anti-viral therapy was associated with a decrease in risk of death, whether started before or after HCC diagnosis (adjusted HR 0.62 and 0.79, respectively; P < 0.001). Anti-viral therapy improved overall survival in patients with HBV-related HCC across cancer stages and treatment types but was underutilised at both US and Asia centres. Expanded use of anti-viral therapy in HBV-related HCC and better linkage-to-care for HBV patients are needed. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

Science.gov (United States)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Epidermal Growth Factor Improves Intestinal Integrity and Survival in Murine Sepsis Following Chronic Alcohol Ingestion.

Science.gov (United States)

Klingensmith, Nathan J; Yoseph, Benyam P; Liang, Zhe; Lyons, John D; Burd, Eileen M; Margoles, Lindsay M; Koval, Michael; Ford, Mandy L; Coopersmith, Craig M

2017-02-01

Epidermal growth factor (EGF) is a cytoprotective protein that improves survival in preclinical models of sepsis through its beneficial effects on intestinal integrity. Alcohol use disorder worsens intestinal integrity and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in critical illness. We sought to determine whether chronic alcohol ingestion alters the host response to systemic administration of EGF in sepsis. Six-week-old FVB/N mice were randomized to receive 20% alcohol or water for 12 weeks. All mice then underwent cecal ligation and puncture to induce polymicrobial sepsis. Mice were then randomized to receive either intraperitoneal injection of EGF (150 μg/kg/day) or normal saline. Water-fed mice given EGF had decreased 7-day mortality compared with water-fed mice (18% vs. 55%). Alcohol-fed mice given EGF also had decreased 7-day mortality compared with alcohol-fed mice (48% vs. 79%). Notably, while systemic EGF improved absolute survival to a similar degree in both water-fed and alcohol-fed mice, mortality was significantly higher in alcohol+EGF mice compared with water+EGF mice. Compared with water-fed septic mice, alcohol-fed septic mice had worsened intestinal integrity with intestinal hyperpermeability, increased intestinal epithelial apoptosis, decreased proliferation and shorter villus length. Systemic administration of EGF to septic alcohol-fed mice decreased intestinal permeability compared with septic alcohol-fed mice given vehicle, with increased levels of the tight junction mediators claudin-5 and JAM-A. Systemic administration of EGF to septic alcohol-fed mice also decreased intestinal apoptosis with an improvement in the Bax/Bcl-2 ratio. EGF also improved both crypt proliferation and villus length in septic alcohol-fed mice. EGF administration resulted in lower levels of both pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, tumor necrosis factor, and interleukin 10 in alcohol-fed mice. EGF is therefore

Improved survival of baby boomer women with early-stage uterine cancer: A Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Elshaikh, Mohamed A; Ruterbusch, Julie; Cote, Michele L; Cattaneo, Richard; Munkarah, Adnan R

2013-11-01

To study the prognostic impact of baby boomer (BB) generation on survival end-points of patients with early-stage endometrial carcinoma (EC). Data were obtained from the SEER registry between 1988-2009. Inclusion criteria included women who underwent hysterectomy for stage I-II EC. Patients were divided into two birth cohorts: BB (women born between 1946 and 1964) and pre-boomers (PB) (born between 1926 and 1945). A total of 30,956 patients were analyzed. Considering that women in the PB group were older than those of the BB generation, the statistical analysis was limited to women 50-59 years of age at the time of diagnosis (n=11,473). Baby boomers had a significantly higher percentage of endometrioid histology (pgeneration compared to the PB generation (p=0.0003) with a trend for improved uterine cancer-specific survival (p=0.0752). On multivariate analysis, birth cohort (BB vs. PB) was not a significant predictor of survival end-points. Factors predictive of survival included: tumor grade, FIGO stage, African-American race, and increased number of dissected LN. Our study suggests that the survival of BB women between 50-60 years of age is better compared to women in the PB generation. As more BB patients are diagnosed with EC, further research is warranted.

Biostatistics series module 9: Survival analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avijit Hazra

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Survival analysis is concerned with “time to event“ data. Conventionally, it dealt with cancer death as the event in question, but it can handle any event occurring over a time frame, and this need not be always adverse in nature. When the outcome of a study is the time to an event, it is often not possible to wait until the event in question has happened to all the subjects, for example, until all are dead. In addition, subjects may leave the study prematurely. Such situations lead to what is called censored observations as complete information is not available for these subjects. The data set is thus an assemblage of times to the event in question and times after which no more information on the individual is available. Survival analysis methods are the only techniques capable of handling censored observations without treating them as missing data. They also make no assumption regarding normal distribution of time to event data. Descriptive methods for exploring survival times in a sample include life table and Kaplan–Meier techniques as well as various kinds of distribution fitting as advanced modeling techniques. The Kaplan–Meier cumulative survival probability over time plot has become the signature plot for biomedical survival analysis. Several techniques are available for comparing the survival experience in two or more groups – the log-rank test is popularly used. This test can also be used to produce an odds ratio as an estimate of risk of the event in the test group; this is called hazard ratio (HR. Limitations of the traditional log-rank test have led to various modifications and enhancements. Finally, survival analysis offers different regression models for estimating the impact of multiple predictors on survival. Cox's proportional hazard model is the most general of the regression methods that allows the hazard function to be modeled on a set of explanatory variables without making restrictive assumptions concerning the

Chloroquine Improves Survival and Hematopoietic Recovery After Lethal Low-Dose-Rate Radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim Yiting; Hedayati, Mohammad; Merchant, Akil A.; Zhang Yonggang; Yu, Hsiang-Hsuan M.; Kastan, Michael B.; Matsui, William; DeWeese, Theodore L.

2012-01-01

Purpose: We have previously shown that the antimalarial agent chloroquine can abrogate the lethal cellular effects of low-dose-rate (LDR) radiation in vitro, most likely by activating the ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) protein. Here, we demonstrate that chloroquine treatment also protects against lethal doses of LDR radiation in vivo. Methods and Materials: C57BL/6 mice were irradiated with a total of 12.8 Gy delivered at 9.4 cGy/hour. ATM null mice from the same background were used to determine the influence of ATM. Chloroquine was administered by two intraperitoneal injections of 59.4 μg per 17 g of body weight, 24 hours and 4 hours before irradiation. Bone marrow cells isolated from tibia, fibula, and vertebral bones were transplanted into lethally irradiated CD45 congenic recipient mice by retroorbital injection. Chimerism was assessed by flow cytometry. In vitro methylcellulose colony-forming assay of whole bone marrow cells and fluorescence activated cell sorting analysis of lineage depleted cells were used to assess the effect of chloroquine on progenitor cells. Results: Mice pretreated with chloroquine before radiation exhibited a significantly higher survival rate than did mice treated with radiation alone (80% vs. 31%, p = 0.0026). Chloroquine administration before radiation did not affect the survival of ATM null mice (p = 0.86). Chloroquine also had a significant effect on the early engraftment of bone marrow cells from the irradiated donor mice 6 weeks after transplantation (4.2% vs. 0.4%, p = 0.015). Conclusion: Chloroquine administration before radiation had a significant effect on the survival of normal but not ATM null mice, strongly suggesting that the in vivo effect, like the in vitro effect, is also ATM dependent. Chloroquine improved the early engraftment of bone marrow cells from LDR-irradiated mice, presumably by protecting the progenitor cells from radiation injury. Chloroquine thus could serve as a very useful drug for protection

Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

Females increase reproductive investment in response to helper-mediated improvements in allo-feeding, nest survival, nestling provisioning and post-fledging survival in the Karoo scrub-robin Cercotrichas coryphaeus

Science.gov (United States)

Lloyd, P.; Andrew, Taylor W.; du Plessis, Morné A.; Martin, T.E.

2009-01-01

In many cooperatively-breeding species, the presence of one or more helpers improves the reproductive performance of the breeding pair receiving help. Helper contributions can take many different forms, including allo-feeding, offspring provisioning, and offspring guarding or defence. Yet, most studies have focussed on single forms of helper contribution, particularly offspring provisioning, and few have evaluated the relative importance of a broader range of helper contributions to group reproductive performance. We examined helper contributions to multiple components of breeding performance in the Karoo scrub-robin Cercotrichas coryphaeus, a facultative cooperative breeder. We also tested a prediction of increased female investment in reproduction when helpers improve conditions for rearing young. Helpers assisted the breeding male in allo-feeding the incubating female, increasing allo-feeding rates. Greater allo-feeding correlated with greater female nest attentiveness during incubation. Nest predation was substantially lower among pairs breeding with a helper, resulting in a 74% increase in the probability of nest survival. Helper contributions to offspring provisioning increased nestling feeding rates, resulting in a reduced incidence of nestling starvation and increased nestling mass. Nestling mass had a strong, positive effect on post-fledging survival. Controlling for female age and habitat effects, annual production of fledged young was 130% greater among pairs breeding with a helper, and was influenced most strongly by helper correlates with nest survival, despite important helper effects on offspring provisioning. Females breeding with a helper increased clutch size, supporting the prediction of increased female investment in reproduction in response to helper benefits. ?? 2009 J. Avian Biol.

Implementation of Extensive Cytoreduction Resulted in Improved Survival Outcomes for Patients with Newly Diagnosed Advanced-Stage Ovarian, Tubal, and Peritoneal Cancers.

Science.gov (United States)

Raspagliesi, Francesco; Bogani, Giorgio; Ditto, Antonino; Martinelli, Fabio; Chiappa, Valentina; Borghi, Chiara; Scaffa, Cono; Morano, Federica; Maltese, Giuseppa; Lorusso, Domenica

2017-10-01

Residual disease (RD) after primary debulking surgery (PDS) is one of the main factors driving ovarian cancer prognosis. The primary end point of this study was assessment of the impact that surgery had on survival outcomes for patients with advanced ovarian cancer. Data on the effect of newly diagnosed advanced-stage ovarian, tubal, and peritoneal cancers were analyzed during two study periods (T1: 2001-2006 and T2: 2007-2012), in which the concepts of optimal and complete cytoreduction were introduced and implemented. In this study, 260 patients (36%) had surgery during T1 and 462 patients (64%) had surgery during T2. The rate of PDS increased, from 55.4% (144/260) during T1 to 85.5% (395/462) during T2 (p < 0.001). At the time of PDS, complete resection (RD0) was achieved for 45.1% of the patients during T1 and 76.7% of the patients during T2 (p < 0.001), whereas optimal resection (RD < 1 cm) was achieved for 60.4% of the patients during T1 and 85.3% of the patients during T2 (p < 0.001). Disease-free survival improved during the study periods (p = 0.006). Overall survival was similar in T1 and T2 (p = 0.18). The preoperative CA125 level, disease stage, and RD remained independently associated with disease-free survival (p ≤ 0.05). The performance of interval debulking surgery (IDS) instead of PDS correlated with worse survival outcomes (hazard ratio [HR] 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24-1.92; p = 0.02), whereas achievement of RD0 and RD < 1 cm independently improved overall survival (HR 0.45; 95% CI 0.22-0.91; p = 0.02 for RD0 and HR 0.47; 95% CI 0.23-0.96; p = 0.03 for RD0). The implementation of extensive cytoreduction allows improvement of patient outcomes. Further studies are needed to assess the risk-to-benefit ratio between PDS and IDS and to identify patients who benefit much more from one treatment method than from another.

Stereotactic body radiotherapy and treatment at a high volume facility is associated with improved survival in patients with inoperable stage I non-small cell lung cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koshy, Matthew; Malik, Renuka; Mahmood, Usama; Husain, Zain; Sher, David J.

2015-01-01

Background: This study examined the comparative effectiveness of no treatment (NoTx), conventional fractionated radiotherapy (ConvRT), and stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in patients with inoperable stage I non-small cell lung cancer. This population based cohort also allowed us to examine what facility level characteristics contributed to improved outcomes. Methods: We included patients in the National Cancer Database from 2003 to 2006 with T1-T2N0M0 inoperable lung cancer (n = 13,036). Overall survival (OS) was estimated using Kaplan–Meier methods and Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: The median follow up was 68 months (interquartile range: 35–83 months) in surviving patients. Among the cohort, 52% received NoTx, 41% received ConvRT and 6% received SBRT. The 3-year OS was 28% for NoTx, 36% for ConvRT radiotherapy, and 48% for the SBRT cohort (p < 0.0001). On multivariate analysis, the hazard ratio for SBRT and ConvRT were 0.67 and 0.77, respectively, as compared to NoTx (1.0 ref) (p < 0.0001). Patients treated at a high volume facility vs. low volume facility had a hazard ratio of 0.94 vs. 1.0 (p = 0.01). Conclusions: Patients with early stage inoperable lung cancer treated with SBRT and at a high volume facility had a survival benefit compared to patients treated with ConvRT or NoTx or to those treated at a low volume facility

Survival of HIV-positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy between 1996 and 2013

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trickey, Adam; May, Margaret T.; Vehreschild, Jorg Janne

2017-01-01

Background Health care for people living with HIV has improved substantially in the past two decades. Robust estimates of how these improvements have affected prognosis and life expectancy are of utmost importance to patients, clinicians, and health-care planners. We examined changes in 3 year...... survival and life expectancy of patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 1996 and 2013. Methods We analysed data from 18 European and North American HIV-1 cohorts. Patients (aged ≥16 years) were eligible for this analysis if they had started ART with three or more drugs between...... ART initiation in four calendar periods (1996–99, 2000–03 [comparator], 2004–07, 2008–10). We estimated life expectancy by calendar period of initiation of ART. Findings 88 504 patients were included in our analyses, of whom 2106 died during the first year of ART and 2302 died during the second...

Improving observational study estimates of treatment effects using joint modeling of selection effects and outcomes: the case of AAA repair.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Malley, A James; Cotterill, Philip; Schermerhorn, Marc L; Landon, Bruce E

2011-12-01

When 2 treatment approaches are available, there are likely to be unmeasured confounders that influence choice of procedure, which complicates estimation of the causal effect of treatment on outcomes using observational data. To estimate the effect of endovascular (endo) versus open surgical (open) repair, including possible modification by institutional volume, on survival after treatment for abdominal aortic aneurysm, accounting for observed and unobserved confounding variables. Observational study of data from the Medicare program using a joint model of treatment selection and survival given treatment to estimate the effects of type of surgery and institutional volume on survival. We studied 61,414 eligible repairs of intact abdominal aortic aneurysms during 2001 to 2004. The outcome, perioperative death, is defined as in-hospital death or death within 30 days of operation. The key predictors are use of endo, transformed endo and open volume, and endo-volume interactions. There is strong evidence of nonrandom selection of treatment with potential confounding variables including institutional volume and procedure date, variables not typically adjusted for in clinical trials. The best fitting model included heterogeneous transformations of endo volume for endo cases and open volume for open cases as predictors. Consistent with our hypothesis, accounting for unmeasured selection reduced the mortality benefit of endo. The effect of endo versus open surgery varies nonlinearly with endo and open volume. Accounting for institutional experience and unmeasured selection enables better decision-making by physicians making treatment referrals, investigators evaluating treatments, and policy makers.

Overall survival and disease-free survival in endometrial cancer: prognostic factors in 276 patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tejerizo-García A

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Álvaro Tejerizo-García,1 Jesús S Jiménez-López,1 José L Muñoz-González,1 Sara Bartolomé-Sotillos,1 Laura Marqueta-Marqués,1 Gregorio López-González,1 José F Pérez-Regadera Gómez21Service of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 2Radiation Oncology Service, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, SpainObjective: The aim of the study reported here was to assess the disease-free survival and overall survival of patients with endometrial cancer and to determine independent factors affecting the prognosis.Materials and methods: This was a retrospective study of a single-center clinical series of 276 patients (mean age 64 years with histologically confirmed cancer of the corpus uteri. The standard treatments were extrafascial total hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy with selective pelvic/para-aortic node dissection, according to risk for recurrence. Actuarial overall survival and disease-free survival were estimated according to the Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to assess the prognostic significance of the different variables.Results: The estimated median follow-up, determined using the inverse Kaplan–Meier method, was 45 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 41.2–48.8 for disease-free survival and 46 months (95% CI 43.0–49.0 for overall survival. The statistically significant variables affecting disease-free survival and overall survival were age, serous-papillary and clear-cell histological types, outer-half myometrial invasion, advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO stage, tumor grades G2 and G3, incomplete surgical resection, positive lymph nodes, lymphovascular space invasion, tumor remnants of >1 cm after surgery, and high-risk group. In the multivariate Cox regression model, predictors of tumor recurrence included advanced FIGO stage (hazard ratio [HR] 4.90, 95% CI 2.57–9.36, P < 0.001 and tumor grades G2 (HR 4.79, 95

Abandoning Peracetic Acid-Based Dialyzer Reuse Is Associated with Improved Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Weiling; Mooney, Ann; Ofsthun, Norma; Lazarus, J. Michael; Hakim, Raymond M.

2011-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Higher mortality risk reported with reuse versus single use of dialyzers is potentially related to reuse reagents that modify membrane surface characteristics and the blood-membrane interface. A key mechanism may involve stimulation of an inflammatory response. Design, setting, participants, & measurements In a prospective crossover design, laboratory markers and mortality from 23 hemodialysis facilities abandoning reuse with peracetic acid mixture were tracked. C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell (WBC) count, albumin, and prealbumin were measured for 2 consecutive months before abandoning reuse and subsequently within 3 and 6 months on single use. Survival models were utilized to compare the 6-month period before abandoning reuse (baseline) and the 6-month period on single use of dialyzers after a 3-month “washout period.” Results Patients from baseline and single-use periods had a mean age of approximately 63 years; 44% were female, 54% were diabetic, 60% were white, and the mean vintage was approximately 3.2 years. The unadjusted hazard ratio for death was 0.70 and after case-mix adjustment was 0.74 for single use compared with reuse. Patients with CRP ≥ 5 mg/L during reuse (mean CRP = 26.6 mg/ml in April) declined on single use to 20.2 mg/L by August and 20.4 mg/L by November. WBC count declined slightly during single use, but nutritional markers were unchanged. Conclusions Abandonment of peracetic-acid-based reuse was associated with improved survival and lower levels of inflammatory but not nutritional markers. Further study is needed to evaluate a potential link between dialyzer reuse, inflammation, and mortality. PMID:20947788

Estimating the probability of survival of individual shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata mill.) trees

Science.gov (United States)

Sudip Shrestha; Thomas B. Lynch; Difei Zhang; James M. Guldin

2012-01-01

A survival model is needed in a forest growth system which predicts the survival of trees on individual basis or on a stand basis (Gertner, 1989). An individual-tree modeling approach is one of the better methods available for predicting growth and yield as it provides essential information about particular tree species; tree size, tree quality and tree present status...

Racial residential segregation, socioeconomic disparities, and the White-Black survival gap

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, Erin; Mendelsohn, Joshua; Escarce, José J.

2018-01-01

Objective To evaluate the association between racial residential segregation, a prominent manifestation of systemic racism, and the White-Black survival gap in a contemporary cohort of adults, and to assess the extent to which socioeconomic inequality explains this association. Design This was a cross sectional study of White and Black men and women aged 35–75 living in 102 large US Core Based Statistical Areas. The main outcome was the White-Black survival gap. We used 2009–2013 CDC mortality data for Black and White men and women to calculate age-, sex- and race adjusted White and Black mortality rates. We measured segregation using the Dissimilarity index, obtained from the Manhattan Institute. We used the 2009–2013 American Community Survey to define indicators of socioeconomic inequality. We estimated the CBSA-level White–Black gap in probability of survival using sequential linear regression models accounting for the CBSA dissimilarity index and race-specific socioeconomic indicators. Results Black men and women had a 14% and 9% lower probability of survival from age 35 to 75 than their white counterparts. Residential segregation was strongly associated with the survival gap, and this relationship was partly, but not fully, explained by socioeconomic inequality. At the lowest observed level of segregation, and with the Black socioeconomic status (SES) assumed to be at the White SES level scenario, the survival gap is essentially eliminated. Conclusion White-Black differences in survival remain wide notwithstanding public health efforts to improve life expectancy and initiatives to reduce health disparities. Eliminating racial residential segregation and bringing Black socioeconomic status (SES) to White SES levels would eliminate the White-Black survival gap. PMID:29474451

Racial residential segregation, socioeconomic disparities, and the White-Black survival gap.

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Ioana Popescu

Full Text Available To evaluate the association between racial residential segregation, a prominent manifestation of systemic racism, and the White-Black survival gap in a contemporary cohort of adults, and to assess the extent to which socioeconomic inequality explains this association.This was a cross sectional study of White and Black men and women aged 35-75 living in 102 large US Core Based Statistical Areas. The main outcome was the White-Black survival gap. We used 2009-2013 CDC mortality data for Black and White men and women to calculate age-, sex- and race adjusted White and Black mortality rates. We measured segregation using the Dissimilarity index, obtained from the Manhattan Institute. We used the 2009-2013 American Community Survey to define indicators of socioeconomic inequality. We estimated the CBSA-level White-Black gap in probability of survival using sequential linear regression models accounting for the CBSA dissimilarity index and race-specific socioeconomic indicators.Black men and women had a 14% and 9% lower probability of survival from age 35 to 75 than their white counterparts. Residential segregation was strongly associated with the survival gap, and this relationship was partly, but not fully, explained by socioeconomic inequality. At the lowest observed level of segregation, and with the Black socioeconomic status (SES assumed to be at the White SES level scenario, the survival gap is essentially eliminated.White-Black differences in survival remain wide notwithstanding public health efforts to improve life expectancy and initiatives to reduce health disparities. Eliminating racial residential segregation and bringing Black socioeconomic status (SES to White SES levels would eliminate the White-Black survival gap.

Use of cardiocerebral resuscitation or AHA/ERC 2005 Guidelines is associated with improved survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

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Salmen, Marcus; Ewy, Gordon A; Sasson, Comilla

2012-01-01

To determine whether the use of cardiocerebral resuscitation (CCR) or AHA/ERC 2005 Resuscitation Guidelines improved patient outcomes from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) compared to older guidelines. Systematic review and meta-analysis. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library databases. We also hand-searched study references and consulted experts. Design: randomised controlled trials and observational studies. OHCA patients, age >17 years. 'Control' protocol versus 'Study' protocol. 'Control' protocol defined as AHA/ERC 2000 Guidelines for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). 'Study' protocol defined as AHA/ERC 2005 Guidelines for CPR, or a CCR protocol. Survival to hospital discharge. High-quality or medium-quality studies, as measured by the Newcastle Ottawa Scale using predefined categories. Twelve observational studies met inclusion criteria. All the three studies using CCR demonstrated significantly improved survival compared to use of AHA 2000 Guidelines, as did five of the nine studies using AHA/ERC 2005 Guidelines. Pooled data demonstrate that use of a CCR protocol has an unadjusted OR of 2.26 (95% CI 1.64 to 3.12) for survival to hospital discharge among all cardiac arrest patients. Among witnessed ventricular fibrillation/ventricular tachycardia (VF/VT) patients, CCR increased survival by an OR of 2.98 (95% CI 1.92 to 4.62). Studies using AHA/ERC 2005 Guidelines showed an overall trend towards increased survival, but significant heterogeneity existed among these studies. We demonstrate an association with improved survival from OHCA when CCR protocols or AHA/ERC 2005 Guidelines are compared to use of older guidelines. In the subgroup of patients with witnessed VF/VT, there was a threefold increase in OHCA survival when CCR was used. CCR appears to be a promising resuscitation protocol for Emergency Medical Services providers in increasing survival from OHCA. Future research will need to be conducted to directly compare AHA/ERC 2010

Geographic Variation in Oxaliplatin Chemotherapy and Survival in Patients With Colon Cancer.

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Panchal, Janki M; Lairson, David R; Chan, Wenyaw; Du, Xianglin L

2016-01-01

Geographic disparity in colon cancer survival has received less attention, despite the fact that health care delivery varied across regions. To examine geographic variation in colon cancer survival and explore factors affecting this variation, including the use of oxaliplatin chemotherapy, we studied cases with resected stage-III colon cancer in 2004-2009, identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare linked database. Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effect of oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy on survival across regions. Propensity score adjustments were made to control for potential selection bias and confounding. Rural regions showed lowest 3-year survival, whereas big metro regions showed better 3-year survival rate than any other region (67.3% in rural regions vs. 69.5% in big metro regions). Hazard ratio for patients residing in metro region was comparable with those residing in big metro region (1.27, 95% confidence interval: 0.90-1.80). However, patients residing in urban area were exhibiting lower mortality than those in other regions, although not statistically significant. Patients who received oxaliplatin chemotherapy were 23% significantly less likely to die of cancer than those received 5-fluorouracil only chemotherapy (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.77, 95% confidence interval: 0.63-0.95). In conclusion, there were some differences in survival across geographic regions, which were not statistically significant after adjusting for sociodemographic, tumor, chemotherapy, and other treatment characteristics. Oxaliplatin chemotherapy was associated with improved survival outcomes compared with 5-fluorouracil only chemotherapy across regions. Further studies may evaluate other factors and newer chemotherapy regimens on mortality/survival of older patients.

Ten-Year Experience of Renal Transplantation at the Northwest National Medical Center, Sonora Mexico: A Survival Study.

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Ma, M A; Laguna-Teniente, I R

2016-03-01

To improve survival after kidney transplantation, it is important to identify the variables that affect it. The aim of this work was to determine the survival of renal grafts from living and cadaveric donors and the survival of patients with graft failure in a tertiary medical unit in northwest Mexico. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients who received transplants since 2004 at the center. Database and medical records of patients were reviewed. The data were captured in a database previously designed in the SPSS v21.1 program for statistical processing. A descriptive analysis with frequencies and percentages and numeric variables measure of central tendency and dispersion was conducted. The survival analysis was made with the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate the graft survive. A total of 412 transplantations were performed during the 2004-2013 period. We analyzed 331 records, and the 10-year survival rates of donor allografts from living and cadaveric donors were 86.64% and 72.78%, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Practitioner's knowledge representation a pathway to improve software effort estimation

CERN Document Server

Mendes, Emilia

2014-01-01

The main goal of this book is to help organizations improve their effort estimates and effort estimation processes by providing a step-by-step methodology that takes them through the creation and validation of models that are based on their own knowledge and experience. Such models, once validated, can then be used to obtain predictions, carry out risk analyses, enhance their estimation processes for new projects and generally advance them as learning organizations.Emilia Mendes presents the Expert-Based Knowledge Engineering of Bayesian Networks (EKEBNs) methodology, which she has used and adapted during the course of several industry collaborations with different companies world-wide over more than 6 years. The book itself consists of two major parts: first, the methodology's foundations in knowledge management, effort estimation (with special emphasis on the intricacies of software and Web development) and Bayesian networks are detailed; then six industry case studies are presented which illustrate the pra...

The quiet revolution. Child survival comes of age.

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Bendahmane, D B

1994-01-01

Programs to reduce infant and child mortality have led to improvements in most countries of the world, developed and developing alike. These improvements can be seen graphically on maps produced by the USAID Child Survival Program which was launched in 1985 and which provided a "package" of health interventions that has led to a 10% mortality decline. These interventions have led to an increase in life expectancy in developing countries from 50 years in 1965 to over 60 years in 1986. Unfortunately, the children whose lives have been saved face a cruel paradox because their prospects for improving their lives are slim. They are the victims of deepening poverty, the stresses of urban life, and war and violence. In addition, the education which could allow them to escape their fate is largely denied to them. Although 90% of the children in developing countries enter school, an estimated 100 million drop out before grade 5. To make matters worse, most of the child survivors live in countries where the young age of the majority of the citizens is straining government resources. Even young people in the developed world are not immune from these problems; in the US, children are worse off than they were 25 years ago. While the struggle to increase child survival must continue, the world must also nurture the children who survive. The vicious cycle of population growth, poverty, and environmental degradation (PPE), which causes and is exacerbated by political and social instability, has been weakened by child survival programs which have reduced fertility rates. Education, especially of girls, also has a positive effect on the spiral. The effects of education, health and nutrition, and family planning programs can create a "virtuous" cycle which can increase gross domestic income and equity of income distribution (resulting in shared growth and "human capital accumulation"). Such initiatives as innovative community youth programs and new financing mechanisms can have a

Improved ice loss estimate of the northwestern Greenland ice sheet

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kjeldsen, K.K.; Khan, S.A.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Angelen, J.H.

2013-01-01

We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003–2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change

STI571 (Gleevec) improves tumor growth delay and survival in irradiated mouse models of glioblastoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geng Ling; Shinohara, Eric T.; Kim, Dong; Tan Jiahuai; Osusky, Kate; Shyr, Yu; Hallahan, Dennis E.

2006-01-01

Purpose: Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a devastating brain neoplasm that is essentially incurable. Although radiation therapy prolongs survival, GBMs progress within areas of irradiation. Recent studies in invertebrates have shown that STI571 (Gleevec; Novartis, East Hanover, NJ) enhances the cytotoxicity of ionizing radiation. In the present study, the effectiveness of STI571 in combination with radiation was studied in mouse models of GBM. Methods and Materials: Murine GL261 and human D54 GBM cell lines formed tumors in brains and hind limbs of C57BL6 and nude mice, respectively. GL261 and D54 cells were treated with 5 μmol/L of STI571 for 1 h and/or irradiated with 3 Gy. Protein was analyzed by Western immunoblots probed with antibodies to caspase 3, cleaved caspase 3, phospho-Akt, Akt, and platelet-derived growth factor receptor (PDGFR) α and β. Tumor volumes were assessed in mice bearing GL261 or D54 tumors treated with 21 Gy administered in seven fractionated doses. Histologic sections from STI571-treated mice were stained with phospho-Akt and phospho-PDGFR β antibodies. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to study the response of mice bearing intracranial implants of GL261. Results: STI571 penetrated the blood-brain barrier, which resulted in a reduction in phospho-PDGFR in GBM. STI571-induced apoptosis in GBM was significantly enhanced by irradiation. STI571 combined with irradiation induced caspase 3 cleavage in GBM cells. Glioblastoma multiforme response to therapy correlated with an increase in tumor growth delay and survival when STI571 was administered in conjunction with daily irradiation. Conclusion: These findings suggest that STI571 has the potential to augment radiotherapy and thereby improve median survival

Acylcarnitines profile best predicts survival in horses with atypical myopathy.

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François Boemer

Full Text Available Equine atypical myopathy (AM is caused by hypoglycin A intoxication and is characterized by a high fatality rate. Predictive estimation of survival in AM horses is necessary to prevent unnecessary suffering of animals that are unlikely to survive and to focus supportive therapy on horses with a possible favourable prognosis of survival. We hypothesized that outcome may be predicted early in the course of disease based on the assumption that the acylcarnitine profile reflects the derangement of muscle energetics. We developed a statistical model to prognosticate the risk of death of diseased animals and found that estimation of outcome may be drawn from three acylcarnitines (C2, C10:2 and C18 -carnitines with a high sensitivity and specificity. The calculation of the prognosis of survival makes it possible to distinguish the horses that will survive from those that will die despite severe signs of acute rhabdomyolysis in both groups.

Acylcarnitines profile best predicts survival in horses with atypical myopathy

Science.gov (United States)

Detilleux, Johann; Cello, Christophe; Amory, Hélène; Marcillaud-Pitel, Christel; Richard, Eric; van Galen, Gaby; van Loon, Gunther; Lefère, Laurence; Votion, Dominique-Marie

2017-01-01

Equine atypical myopathy (AM) is caused by hypoglycin A intoxication and is characterized by a high fatality rate. Predictive estimation of survival in AM horses is necessary to prevent unnecessary suffering of animals that are unlikely to survive and to focus supportive therapy on horses with a possible favourable prognosis of survival. We hypothesized that outcome may be predicted early in the course of disease based on the assumption that the acylcarnitine profile reflects the derangement of muscle energetics. We developed a statistical model to prognosticate the risk of death of diseased animals and found that estimation of outcome may be drawn from three acylcarnitines (C2, C10:2 and C18 -carnitines) with a high sensitivity and specificity. The calculation of the prognosis of survival makes it possible to distinguish the horses that will survive from those that will die despite severe signs of acute rhabdomyolysis in both groups. PMID:28846683

An Accurate Link Correlation Estimator for Improving Wireless Protocol Performance

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Zhao, Zhiwei; Xu, Xianghua; Dong, Wei; Bu, Jiajun

2015-01-01

Wireless link correlation has shown significant impact on the performance of various sensor network protocols. Many works have been devoted to exploiting link correlation for protocol improvements. However, the effectiveness of these designs heavily relies on the accuracy of link correlation measurement. In this paper, we investigate state-of-the-art link correlation measurement and analyze the limitations of existing works. We then propose a novel lightweight and accurate link correlation estimation (LACE) approach based on the reasoning of link correlation formation. LACE combines both long-term and short-term link behaviors for link correlation estimation. We implement LACE as a stand-alone interface in TinyOS and incorporate it into both routing and flooding protocols. Simulation and testbed results show that LACE: (1) achieves more accurate and lightweight link correlation measurements than the state-of-the-art work; and (2) greatly improves the performance of protocols exploiting link correlation. PMID:25686314

Second-line treatments: moving towards an opportunity to improve survival in advanced gastric cancer?

Science.gov (United States)

Salati, Massimiliano; Di Emidio, Katia; Tarantino, Vittoria; Cascinu, Stefano

2017-01-01

Gastric cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related death globally with approximately 723 000 deaths every year. Most patients present with advanced unresectable or metastatic disease, only amenable to palliative systemic treatment and a median survival uncommonly exceeding 12 months. Over the last years, the efficacy of chemotherapy combination has plateaued and the introduction of the anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 trastuzumab has resulted in a limited survival gain in the upfront setting. After this positive experience, first-line treatment with new targeted therapies failed to improve the outcome of advanced gastric cancer. On the contrary, second-line options, including monochemotherapy with taxanes or irinotecan and the anti-vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 ramucirumab, either alone or combined with paclitaxel, opened new therapeutic rooms for an ever-increasing number of patients who maintain an acceptable performance status across multiple lines. This article provides an updated overview on the current management of advanced gastric cancer and discusses how the different treatment options available may be best combined to favourably impact the outcome of patients following the logic of a treatment strategy.

Demand assessment and price-elasticity estimation of quality-improved primary health care in Palestine: a contribution from the contingent valuation method.

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Mataria, Awad; Luchini, Stéphane; Daoud, Yousef; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2007-10-01

This paper proposes a new methodology to assess demand and price-elasticity for health care, based on patients' stated willingness to pay (WTP) values for certain aspects of health care quality improvements. A conceptual analysis of how respondents consider contingent valuation (CV) questions allowed us to specify a probability density function of stated WTP values, and consequently, to model a demand function for quality-improved health care, using a parametric survival approach. The model was empirically estimated using a CV study intended to assess patients' values for improving the quality of primary health care (PHC) services in Palestine. A random sample of 499 individuals was interviewed following medical consultation in four PHC centers. Quality was assessed using a multi-attribute approach; and respondents valued seven specific quality improvements using a decomposed valuation scenario and a payment card elicitation technique. Our results suggest an inelastic demand at low user fees levels, and when the price-increase is accompanied with substantial quality-improvements. Nevertheless, demand becomes more and more elastic if user fees continue to rise. On the other hand, patients' reactions to price-increase turn out to depend on their level of income. Our results can be used to design successful health care financing strategies that include a consideration of patients' preferences and financial capacities. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Acoustic Telemetry Evaluation of Juvenile Salmonid Passage and Survival at John Day Dam, 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weiland, Mark A.; Woodley, Christa M.; Ploskey, Gene R.; Hughes, James S.; Kim, Jin A.; Deng, Zhiqun; Fu, Tao; Fischer, Eric S.; Skalski, J. R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Duncan, Joanne P.; Hennen, Matthew J.; Wagner, Katie A.; Arntzen, Evan V.; Miller, Benjamin L.; Miracle, Ann L.; Zimmerman, Shon A.; Royer, Ida M.; Khan, Fenton; Cushing, Aaron W.; Etherington, D. J.; Mitchell, T. D.; Elder, T.; Batton, George; Johnson, Gary E.; Carlson, Thomas J.

2013-05-01

This report presents survival, behavioral, and fish passage results for yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon smolts and juvenile steelhead tagged with JSATS acoustic micro-transmitters as part of a survival study conducted at John Day Dam during 2010. This study was designed to evaluate the passage and survival of yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead to assist managers in identifying dam operations for compliance testing as stipulated by the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion and the 2008 Columbia Basin Fish Accords. Survival estimates were based on a single-release survival estimate model.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

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Janet L. Rachlow

2013-08-01

Full Text Available United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1 if a current population size was given, (2 if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3 if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

Improved leukemia-free survival after postconsolidation immunotherapy with histamine dihydrochloride and interleukin-2 in acute myeloid leukemia: results of a randomized phase 3 trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Brune, Mats; Castaigne, Sylvie; Catalano, John; Gehlsen, Kurt; Ho, Anthony D; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Hogge, Donna E; Nilsson, Bo; Or, Reuven; Romero, Ana I; Rowe, Jacob M; Simonsson, Bengt; Spearing, Ruth; Stadtmauer, Edward A; Szer, Jeff; Wallhult, Elisabeth; Hellstrand, Kristoffer

2006-07-01

The primary objective of this phase 3 study was to determine whether postconsolidation immunotherapy with interleukin-2 (IL-2) and histamine dihydrochloride (HDC) improved the leukemia-free survival (LFS) of adult patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in complete remission (CR). Three hundred twenty patients with AML (median age, 57 years; range, 18-84 years) were stratified by CR1 or subsequent CR (CR > 1) and randomly assigned to treatment with HDC/IL-2 or no treatment (control). Treatment comprised 10 21-day cycles with IL-2 (16 400 U/kg) plus HDC (0.5 mg); both compounds were administered by subcutaneous injection twice daily. Study arms were balanced for age, sex, previous treatment, leukemic karyotypes, time from CR to inclusion, and frequency of secondary leukemia. Three years after enrollment of the last patient, treatment with HDC/IL-2 was found to improve LFS over control in the study population (CR1 + CR > 1, n = 320; P < .01, log-rank test). For patients in CR1 (n = 261), treatment significantly improved LFS (P = .01) with 3-year LFS estimates of 40% (HDC/IL-2) compared with 26% (control). Side effects were typically mild to moderate. These results indicate that HDC/IL-2 treatment offers an efficacious and tolerable treatment for patients with AML in remission.

A dose-surviving fraction curve for mouse colonic mucosa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tucker, S.L.; Thames, H.D. Jr.; Withers, H.R.; Mason, K.A.

1983-01-01

A dose-surviving fraction curve representing the response of the mouse colonic mucosa to single doses of 137 Cs gamma radiation was obtained from the results of a multifraction in vivo colony assay. Construction of the curve required an estimated of the average number of clonogens initially present per colonic crypt. The estimated clonogen count (88) was determined by a statistical method based on the use of doses per fraction common to different fractionation protocols. Parameters for the LQ and TC models of cell survival were obtained by weighted least-squares fits to the data. A comparison of the survival characteristics of cells from the mouse colonic and jejunal crypts suggested that the epithelium of the colon is less radiosensitive than that of the jejunum. (author)

Is cancer survival associated with cancer symptom awareness and barriers to seeking medical help in England? An ecological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Niksic, Maja; Rachet, Bernard; Duffy, Stephen W; Quaresma, Manuela; Møller, Henrik; Forbes, Lindsay Jl

2016-09-27

Campaigns aimed at raising cancer awareness and encouraging early presentation have been implemented in England. However, little is known about whether people with low cancer awareness and increased barriers to seeking medical help have worse cancer survival, and whether there is a geographical variation in cancer awareness and barriers in England. From population-based surveys (n=35 308), using the Cancer Research UK Cancer Awareness Measure, we calculated the age- and sex-standardised symptom awareness and barriers scores for 52 primary care trusts (PCTs). These measures were evaluated in relation to the sex-, age-, and type of cancer-standardised cancer survival index of the corresponding PCT, from the National Cancer Registry, using linear regression. Breast, lung, and bowel cancer survival were analysed separately. Cancer symptom awareness and barriers scores varied greatly between geographical regions in England, with the worst scores observed in socioeconomically deprived parts of East London. Low cancer awareness score was associated with poor cancer survival at PCT level (estimated slope=1.56, 95% CI: 0.56; 2.57). The barriers score was not associated with overall cancer survival, but it was associated with breast cancer survival (estimated slope=-0.66, 95% CI: -1.20; -0.11). Specific barriers, such as embarrassment and difficulties in arranging transport to the doctor's surgery, were associated with worse breast cancer survival. Cancer symptom awareness and cancer survival are associated. Campaigns should focus on improving awareness about cancer symptoms, especially in socioeconomically deprived areas. Efforts should be made to alleviate barriers to seeking medical help in women with symptoms of breast cancer.