Starting a Second Chance Home: A Guide for Policymakers and Practitioners.

Science.gov (United States)

Reich, Kathy; Kelly, Lisa M.

This guide outlines 10 basic steps for policymakers and practitioners interested in creating Second Chance Homes in their areas. Second Chance Homes provide stable, nurturing environments for teen families with access to child care, education, job training, counseling, and advice on parenting and life skills. The guide is based on interviews with…

Efficient relaxations for joint chance constrained AC optimal power flow

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baker, Kyri; Toomey, Bridget

2017-07-01

Evolving power systems with increasing levels of stochasticity call for a need to solve optimal power flow problems with large quantities of random variables. Weather forecasts, electricity prices, and shifting load patterns introduce higher levels of uncertainty and can yield optimization problems that are difficult to solve in an efficient manner. Solution methods for single chance constraints in optimal power flow problems have been considered in the literature, ensuring single constraints are satisfied with a prescribed probability; however, joint chance constraints, ensuring multiple constraints are simultaneously satisfied, have predominantly been solved via scenario-based approaches or by utilizing Boole's inequality as an upper bound. In this paper, joint chance constraints are used to solve an AC optimal power flow problem while preventing overvoltages in distribution grids under high penetrations of photovoltaic systems. A tighter version of Boole's inequality is derived and used to provide a new upper bound on the joint chance constraint, and simulation results are shown demonstrating the benefit of the proposed upper bound. The new framework allows for a less conservative and more computationally efficient solution to considering joint chance constraints, specifically regarding preventing overvoltages.

Talent in Female Gymnastics: a Survival Analysis Based upon Performance Characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Pion, J; Lenoir, M; Vandorpe, B; Segers, V

2015-11-01

This study investigated the link between the anthropometric, physical and motor characteristics assessed during talent identification and dropout in young female gymnasts. 3 cohorts of female gymnasts (n=243; 6-9 years) completed a test battery for talent identification. Performance-levels were monitored over 5 years of competition. Kaplan-Meier and Cox Proportional Hazards analyses were conducted to determine the survival rate and the characteristics that influence dropout respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that only 18% of the female gymnasts that passed the baseline talent identification test survived at the highest competition level 5 years later. The Cox Proportional Hazards Model indicated that gymnasts with a score in the best quartile for a specific characteristic significantly increased chances of survival by 45-129%. These characteristics being: basic motor skills (129%), shoulder strength (96%), leg strength (53%) and 3 gross motor coordination items (45-73%). These results suggest that tests batteries commonly used for talent identification in young female gymnasts may also provide valuable insights into future dropout. Therefore, multidimensional test batteries deserve a prominent place in the selection process. The individual test results should encourage trainers to invest in an early development of basic physical and motor characteristics to prevent attrition. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Longevity Chance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timon Cheng-Yi Liu

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Britton Chance pursued his research and sailing until his death at age 97. His 100th anniversary was memorialized in this paper from longevity viewpoint. His lifelong work was very creative. His life was very colorful. His aging was very successful. He has lived a longevity.

An inexact log-normal distribution-based stochastic chance-constrained model for agricultural water quality management

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu; Fan, Jie; Xu, Ye; Sun, Wei; Chen, Dong

2018-05-01

In this study, an inexact log-normal-based stochastic chance-constrained programming model was developed for solving the non-point source pollution issues caused by agricultural activities. Compared to the general stochastic chance-constrained programming model, the main advantage of the proposed model is that it allows random variables to be expressed as a log-normal distribution, rather than a general normal distribution. Possible deviations in solutions caused by irrational parameter assumptions were avoided. The agricultural system management in the Erhai Lake watershed was used as a case study, where critical system factors, including rainfall and runoff amounts, show characteristics of a log-normal distribution. Several interval solutions were obtained under different constraint-satisfaction levels, which were useful in evaluating the trade-off between system economy and reliability. The applied results show that the proposed model could help decision makers to design optimal production patterns under complex uncertainties. The successful application of this model is expected to provide a good example for agricultural management in many other watersheds.

Rural factors and survival from cancer: analysis of Scottish cancer registrations.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, N C; Elliott, A M; Sharp, L; Ritchie, L D; Cassidy, J; Little, J

2000-06-01

In this survival study 63,976 patients diagnosed with one of six common cancers in Scotland were followed up. Increasing distance from a cancer centre was associated with less chance of diagnosis before death for stomach, breast and colorectal cancers and poorer survival after diagnosis for prostate and lung cancers.

Triple-coincidence with automatic chance coincidence correction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chase, R.L.

1975-05-01

The chance coincidences in a triple-coincidence circuit are of two types--partially correlated and entirely uncorrelated. Their relative importance depends on source strength and source and detector geometry so that the total chance correction cannot, in general, be calculated. The system described makes use of several delays and straightforward integrated circuit logic to provide independent evaluation of the two components of the chance coincidence rate. (auth)

Increasing Winter Maximal Metabolic Rate Improves Intrawinter Survival in Small Birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Petit, Magali; Clavijo-Baquet, Sabrina; Vézina, François

Small resident bird species living at northern latitudes increase their metabolism in winter, and this is widely assumed to improve their chances of survival. However, the relationship between winter metabolic performance and survival has yet to be demonstrated. Using capture-mark-recapture, we followed a population of free-living black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) over 3 yr and evaluated their survival probability within and among winters. We also measured the size-independent body mass (M s ), hematocrit (Hct), basal metabolic rate (BMR), and maximal thermogenic capacity (Msum) and investigated how these parameters influenced survival within and among winters. Results showed that survival probability was high and constant both within (0.92) and among (0.96) winters. They also showed that while M s , Hct, and BMR had no significant influence, survival was positively related to Msum-following a sigmoid relationship-within but not among winter. Birds expressing an Msum below 1.26 W (i.e., similar to summer levels) had a winter. Our data therefore suggest that black-capped chickadees that are either too slow or unable to adjust their phenotype from summer to winter have little chances of survival and thus that seasonal upregulation of metabolic performance is highly beneficial. This study is the first to document in an avian system the relationship between thermogenic capacity and winter survival, a proxy of fitness.

Negotiating Life Chances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korzenevica, Marina

to and negotiate both educational and labour mobility - both of which are associated with the chance of a better life. This thesis is about young people (aged 16-31): How they negotiate their life chances and how they contribute to transformations of the socio-political space of their communities in two villages...... becoming. Aspirations prevail over political interests: young people navigate and negotiate their engagement in party and community politics by making calculations concerning their own mobility, life strategies and obligations to kin. In this way, young men engage in, but also balance and shift......, conversely, can only aspire to educational mobility due to gender norms. Furthermore, many of their hopes of ‘becoming somebody’ collapse upon marriage. Women find that they cannot continue their education, nor use the skills they have acquired in local politics, as they need to follow traditional...

Loss of chance in medical negligence.

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie, K; Bramley, D; Shulman, M; Kennedy, E

2014-05-01

Occasionally accidents and complications occur during anaesthesia and perioperative care that result in injury to the patient. Unfortunately, this is sometimes due to a breach in the anaesthetist's duty of care to the patient. Sometimes, rather than being the cause of immediate damage, the act or omission results in an alteration in the prognosis of the complaint or increased risk of complications related to the complaint. This avenue for a negligence action is known as 'loss of chance of a better outcome' and has been the subject of much legal argument in Australia in recent years. A recent High Court of Australia decision is widely seen as having 'closed the door' to, or at least made it difficult for the patient to succeed in, loss of chance cases. Many anaesthetists may not be familiar with the concept of 'loss of chance'. This review will explore the concept of loss of chance and the manner in which Australian courts have dealt with it before and after Tabet v Gett from the perspective of the anaesthetist.

Chance, purpose, and progress in evolution and christianity.

Science.gov (United States)

Mix, Lucas J; Masel, Joanna

2014-08-01

Evolutionary biology has a complex relationship with ideas of chance, purpose, and progress. Probability plays a subtle role; strikingly, founding figures in statistics were motivated by evolutionary questions. The findings of evolutionary biology have been used both in support of narratives of progress, and in their deconstruction. Likewise, professional biologists bring to their scientific work a set of preconceptions about chance and progress, grounded in their philosophical, religious, and/or political views. From the religious side, questions of purpose are ever-present. We explore this interplay in five broad categories: chance, progress, intelligence, eugenics, and the evolution of religious practices, each the subject of a semester long symposium. The intellectual influence of evolutionary biology has had a broad societal impact in these areas. Based on our experience, we draw attention to a number of relevant facts that, while accepted by experts in their respective fields, may be unfamiliar outside them. We list common areas of miscommunication, including specific examples and discussing causes: sometimes semantics and sometimes more substantive knowledge barriers. We also make recommendations for those attempting similar dialogue. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Distributionally Robust Joint Chance Constrained Problem under Moment Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ke-wei Ding

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We discuss and develop the convex approximation for robust joint chance constraints under uncertainty of first- and second-order moments. Robust chance constraints are approximated by Worst-Case CVaR constraints which can be reformulated by a semidefinite programming. Then the chance constrained problem can be presented as semidefinite programming. We also find that the approximation for robust joint chance constraints has an equivalent individual quadratic approximation form.

Taking a Chance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heinskou, Marie Bruvik; Demant, Jakob

2011-01-01

of the grey zone situations of acquaintance rape among the youth. The risk of social stigma within the gender game increases with drinking alcohol simultaneously as the chances of expanding the limitations of gender roles also increase with drinking. These social stigmas, embedded in the gender roles...

Auditor human capital and audit firm survival - The Dutch audit industry in 1930-1992

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brocheler, [No Value; Maijoor, S; van Witteloostuijn, A; Bröcheler, V.

2004-01-01

This paper studies the relationship between auditor human capital and audit firm survival. Specifically, the effects are investigated of the human capital of auditors on the survival chances of newly established audit firms. Human capital is analyzed both at the time of entry of a new audit firm and

Firms Started As Franchises Have Lower Survival Rates Than Independent Small Business Startups

OpenAIRE

Timothy Bates

1994-01-01

Aspiring entrepreneurs choosing to become franchisees certainly expect to improve their chances of survival during the turbulent early years of business startup and operation. Alignment with a franchiser parent company offers the franchisee managerial assistance, access to financial capital, and access to markets via the right to utilize the parent company trademark. This study examines survival patterns among franchise and nonfranchise small firms started between 1984 and 1987: survival thro...

Chance and luck are not the same

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagenaar, W.A.; Keren, G.B.

1988-01-01

In the mind of many people chance and luck act as real but different causes of events. Even in strictly defined situations as casino gambling, people may perceive influences of luck that help to overcome the negative expectancy defined by the rules of chance. Interviews with gamblers in casinos

Predicting ongoing pregnancy chances after IVF and ICSI: A national prospective study

OpenAIRE

Lintsen, Bea; Eijkemans, René; Hunault, C.C.; Bouwmans-Frijters, Clazien; Hakkaart-van Roijen, Leona; Habbema, Dik; Braat, Didi

2007-01-01

textabstractBackground: The Dutch IVF guideline suggests triage of patients for IVF based on diagnostic category, duration of infertility and female age. There is no evidence for the effectiveness of these criteria. We evaluated the predictive value of patient characteristics that are used in the Dutch IVF guideline and developed a model that predicts the IVF ongoing pregnancy chance within 12 months. Methods: In a national prospective cohort study, pregnancy chances after IVF and ICSI treatm...

Conditional survival is greater than overall survival at diagnosis in patients with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Benjamin J; Lynch, Charles F; Buckwalter, Joseph A

2013-11-01

Conditional survival is a measure of the risk of mortality given that a patient has survived a defined period of time. These estimates are clinically helpful, but have not been reported previously for osteosarcoma or Ewing's sarcoma. We determined the conditional survival of patients with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma given survival of 1 or more years. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database to investigate cases of osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma in patients younger than 40 years from 1973 to 2009. The SEER Program is managed by the National Cancer Institute and provides survival data gathered from population-based cancer registries. We used an actuarial life table analysis to determine any cancer cause-specific 5-year survival estimates conditional on 1 to 5 years of survival after diagnosis. We performed a similar analysis to determine 20-year survival from the time of diagnosis. The estimated 5-year survival improved each year after diagnosis. For local/regional osteosarcoma, the 5-year survival improved from 74.8% at baseline to 91.4% at 5 years-meaning that if a patient with localized osteosarcoma lives for 5 years, the chance of living for another 5 years is 91.4%. Similarly, the 5-year survivals for local/regional Ewing's sarcoma improved from 72.9% at baseline to 92.5% at 5 years, for metastatic osteosarcoma 35.5% at baseline to 85.4% at 5 years, and for metastatic Ewing's sarcoma 31.7% at baseline to 83.6% at 5 years. The likelihood of 20-year cause-specific survival from the time of diagnosis in osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma was almost 90% or greater after 10 years of survival, suggesting that while most patients will remain disease-free indefinitely, some experience cancer-related complications years after presumed eradication. The 5-year survival estimates of osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma improve with each additional year of patient survival. Knowledge of a changing risk profile is useful in counseling

Chance Events in Career Development: Influence, Control and Multiplicity

Science.gov (United States)

Bright, Jim E. H.; Pryor, Robert G. L.; Chan, Eva Wing Man; Rijanto, Jeniyanti

2009-01-01

This article reports three studies on the nature and impact of chance events. The first study investigated chance events in terms of the dimensions of influence and control. The second and third studies investigated the effects of multiplicity of chance events on career development are in terms of respondents' own careers and then in terms of…

Analysis of survival data with dependent censoring copula-based approaches

CERN Document Server

Emura, Takeshi

2018-01-01

This book introduces readers to copula-based statistical methods for analyzing survival data involving dependent censoring. Primarily focusing on likelihood-based methods performed under copula models, it is the first book solely devoted to the problem of dependent censoring. The book demonstrates the advantages of the copula-based methods in the context of medical research, especially with regard to cancer patients’ survival data. Needless to say, the statistical methods presented here can also be applied to many other branches of science, especially in reliability, where survival analysis plays an important role. The book can be used as a textbook for graduate coursework or a short course aimed at (bio-) statisticians. To deepen readers’ understanding of copula-based approaches, the book provides an accessible introduction to basic survival analysis and explains the mathematical foundations of copula-based survival models.

A simulation based research on chance constrained programming in robust facility location problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaijun Leng

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Since facility location decisions problem include long-term character and potential parameter variations, it is important to consider uncertainty in its modeling. This paper examines robust facility location problem considering supply uncertainty, in which we assume the supply of the facility in the actual operation is not equal to the supply initially established, the supply is subject to random fluctuation. The chance constraints are introduced when formulating the robust facility location model to make sure the system operate properly with a certain probability while the supply fluctuates. The chance constraints are approximated safely by using Hoeffding’s inequality and the problem is transformed to a general deterministic linear programming. Furthermore, how the facility location cost change with confidence level is investigated through a numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is conducted for important parameters of the model and we get the main factors that affect the facility location cost.

Joint Chance-Constrained Dynamic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Ono, Masahiro; Kuwata, Yoshiaki; Balaram, J. Bob

2012-01-01

This paper presents a novel dynamic programming algorithm with a joint chance constraint, which explicitly bounds the risk of failure in order to maintain the state within a specified feasible region. A joint chance constraint cannot be handled by existing constrained dynamic programming approaches since their application is limited to constraints in the same form as the cost function, that is, an expectation over a sum of one-stage costs. We overcome this challenge by reformulating the joint chance constraint into a constraint on an expectation over a sum of indicator functions, which can be incorporated into the cost function by dualizing the optimization problem. As a result, the primal variables can be optimized by a standard dynamic programming, while the dual variable is optimized by a root-finding algorithm that converges exponentially. Error bounds on the primal and dual objective values are rigorously derived. We demonstrate the algorithm on a path planning problem, as well as an optimal control problem for Mars entry, descent and landing. The simulations are conducted using a real terrain data of Mars, with four million discrete states at each time step.

Characteristics of juvenile survivors reveal spatio-temporal differences in early life stage survival of Baltic cod

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huwer, Bastian; Hinrichsen, H.H.; Böttcher, U.

2014-01-01

with previous modeling studies on the survival chances of early-stage larvae and with general spatio-temporal patterns of larval prey availability suggests that differences in survival are related to food availability during the early larval stage. Results are discussed in relation to the recruitment process...

DANIELA-SORINA ALBEANU, Equality of chances and health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

EMILIAN M. DOBRESCU

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Equality of chance is a major aim for humanity. Having a dynamic conceptualization, equalizing chances poses problems of acceptance on the part of certain socio-professional categories. Solving aspects like discrimination according to certain criteria, marginalization and social exclusion is the task of the government, agencies and of institutions set in the legislation. This work looks at the way in which the problems related to health interfere with the legislation on the equality of chances between men and women, on the one hand (gender policies, and disabled people on the other hands.

Chemotherapy increases long-term survival in patients with adult medulloblastoma--a literature-based meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kocakaya, Selin; Beier, Christoph Patrick; Beier, Dagmar

2016-03-01

Adult medulloblastoma is a potentially curable malignant entity with an incidence of 0.5-1 per million. Valid data on prognosis, treatment, and demographics are lacking, as most current knowledge stems from retrospective studies. Surgical resection followed by radiotherapy are accepted parts of treatment regimes; however, established prognostic factors and data clarifying the role of chemotherapy are missing. We investigated 227 publications from 1969-2013, with 907 identifiable, individual patients being available for meta-analysis. Demographic data, risk stratification, and treatment of these patients were similar to previous cohorts. The median overall survival (mOS) was 65 months (95% CI: 54.6-75.3) , the 5-year overall survival was 50.9% with 16% of the patients dying more than 5 years after diagnosis. Incomplete resection, clinical and radiological signs for brainstem infiltration, and abstinence from radiotherapy were predictive of worse outcome. Metastatic disease at tumor recurrence was identified as a new prognostic factor, while neither metastasis at initial diagnosis nor desmoplastic/classic histology was correlated with survival. Patients receiving chemotherapy first-line survived significantly longer (mOS: 108 mo, 95% CI: 68.6-148.4) than patients treated with radiation alone (mOS: 57 mo, 95% CI: 39.6-74.4) or patients who received chemotherapy at tumor recurrence. This effect was not biased by tumor stage or decade of treatment. Importantly, (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy also significantly increased the chance for long-term survival (>5 y) compared with radiotherapy alone or chemotherapy at tumor recurrence. This meta-analysis clarifies relevant prognostic factors and suggests that chemotherapy as part of first-line therapy improves overall survival and increases the proportion of patients with long-term survival. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Neuro-Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions

Nuclear War Survival Skills

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kearny, C.H.

2002-06-24

The purpose of this book is to provide Americans with information and instructions that will significantly increase their chances of surviving a possible nuclear attack. It brings together field-tested instructions that, if followed by a large fraction of Americans during a crisis that preceded an attack, could save millions of lives. The author is convinced that the vulnerability of our country to nuclear threat or attack must be reduced and that the wide dissemination of the information contained in this book would help achieve that objective of our overall defense strategy.

SMART literature review report on existing practice in measuring success factors in second chance education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Ulla Højmark

2015-01-01

criteria, indicators and benchmarks that measures developments of learners, impacts of informal and non-formal learning methods and evidences success factors of second chance education. The aim of the project is to build an evidence base of outcomes and impacts of second chance education and to enhance......, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. This literature review aims at developing an insight of the existing practice of measuring and evidencing success factors in second chance education. In the following, we will highlight examples of good...

ON Integrated Chance Constraints in ALM for Pension Funds

OpenAIRE

Youssouf A. F. Toukourou; Fran\\c{c}ois Dufresne

2015-01-01

We discuss the role of integrated chance constraints (ICC) as quantitative risk constraints in asset and liability management (ALM) for pension funds. We define two types of ICC: the one period integrated chance constraint (OICC) and the multiperiod integrated chance constraint (MICC). As their names suggest, the OICC covers only one period whereas several periods are taken into account with the MICC. A multistage stochastic linear programming model is therefore developed for this purpose and...

Molecular mechanism of flocculation self-recognition in yeast and its role in mating and survival

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Saccharomyces cerevisiae flocculation occurs when fermentable sugars are limiting and is therefore considered as a way to enhance the survival chance of...

Data mining in bone marrow transplant records to identify patients with high odds of survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Taati, Babak; Snoek, Jasper; Aleman, Dionne; Ghavamzadeh, Ardeshir

2014-01-01

Patients undergoing a bone marrow stem cell transplant (BMT) face various risk factors. Analyzing data from past transplants could enhance the understanding of the factors influencing success. Records up to 120 measurements per transplant procedure from 1751 patients undergoing BMT were collected (Shariati Hospital). Collaborative filtering techniques allowed the processing of highly sparse records with 22.3% missing values. Ten-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate the performance of various classification algorithms trained on predicting the survival status. Modest accuracy levels were obtained in predicting the survival status (AUC = 0.69). More importantly, however, operations that had the highest chances of success were shown to be identifiable with high accuracy, e.g., 92% or 97% when identifying 74 or 31 recipients, respectively. Identifying the patients with the highest chances of survival has direct application in the prioritization of resources and in donor matching. For patients where high-confidence prediction is not achieved, assigning a probability to their survival odds has potential applications in probabilistic decision support systems and in combination with other sources of information.

Second Chance Education: Barriers, Supports and Engagement Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Savelsberg, Harry; Pignata, Silvia; Weckert, Pauline

2017-01-01

Second chance education programs are now a well-established presence in institutions seeking to provide access and equity pathways for socio-economically disadvantaged groups. This paper focusses on the strategies used to support positive engagement in second chance equity programs, drawing upon evaluation research data from four TAFE sponsored…

CASAS: Cancer Survival Analysis Suite, a web based application.

Science.gov (United States)

Rupji, Manali; Zhang, Xinyan; Kowalski, Jeanne

2017-01-01

We present CASAS, a shiny R based tool for interactive survival analysis and visualization of results. The tool provides a web-based one stop shop to perform the following types of survival analysis:  quantile, landmark and competing risks, in addition to standard survival analysis.  The interface makes it easy to perform such survival analyses and obtain results using the interactive Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence plots.  Univariate analysis can be performed on one or several user specified variable(s) simultaneously, the results of which are displayed in a single table that includes log rank p-values and hazard ratios along with their significance. For several quantile survival analyses from multiple cancer types, a single summary grid is constructed. The CASAS package has been implemented in R and is available via http://shinygispa.winship.emory.edu/CASAS/. The developmental repository is available at https://github.com/manalirupji/CASAS/.

Advances in Chance Discovery : Extended Selection from International Workshops

CERN Document Server

Abe, Akinori

2013-01-01

Since year 2000, scientists on artificial and natural intelligences started to study chance discovery - methods for discovering events/situations that significantly affect decision making. Partially because the editors Ohsawa and Abe are teaching at schools of Engineering and of Literature with sharing the interest in chance discovery, this book reflects interdisciplinary aspects of progress: First, as an interdisciplinary melting pot of cognitive science, computational intelligence, data mining/visualization, collective intelligence, … etc, chance discovery came to reach new application domains e.g. health care, aircraft control, energy plant, management of technologies, product designs, innovations, marketing, finance etc. Second, basic technologies and sciences including sensor technologies, medical sciences, communication technologies etc. joined this field and interacted with cognitive/computational scientists in workshops on chance discovery, to obtain breakthroughs by stimulating each other. Third, �...

Life, Death, and Second Chances

Science.gov (United States)

... Bar Home Current Issue Past Issues Special Section Life, Death, and Second Chances Past Issues / Fall 2007 ... that she was beginning to fear for her life. Was there any hope at all? Dr. Richard ...

Chance-Constrained Guidance With Non-Convex Constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Ono, Masahiro

2011-01-01

Missions to small bodies, such as comets or asteroids, require autonomous guidance for descent to these small bodies. Such guidance is made challenging by uncertainty in the position and velocity of the spacecraft, as well as the uncertainty in the gravitational field around the small body. In addition, the requirement to avoid collision with the asteroid represents a non-convex constraint that means finding the optimal guidance trajectory, in general, is intractable. In this innovation, a new approach is proposed for chance-constrained optimal guidance with non-convex constraints. Chance-constrained guidance takes into account uncertainty so that the probability of collision is below a specified threshold. In this approach, a new bounding method has been developed to obtain a set of decomposed chance constraints that is a sufficient condition of the original chance constraint. The decomposition of the chance constraint enables its efficient evaluation, as well as the application of the branch and bound method. Branch and bound enables non-convex problems to be solved efficiently to global optimality. Considering the problem of finite-horizon robust optimal control of dynamic systems under Gaussian-distributed stochastic uncertainty, with state and control constraints, a discrete-time, continuous-state linear dynamics model is assumed. Gaussian-distributed stochastic uncertainty is a more natural model for exogenous disturbances such as wind gusts and turbulence than the previously studied set-bounded models. However, with stochastic uncertainty, it is often impossible to guarantee that state constraints are satisfied, because there is typically a non-zero probability of having a disturbance that is large enough to push the state out of the feasible region. An effective framework to address robustness with stochastic uncertainty is optimization with chance constraints. These require that the probability of violating the state constraints (i.e., the probability of

Second Chance or No Chance? A Case Study of One Urban Alternative Middle School

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy-Lewis, Brianna L.

2015-01-01

This qualitative case study focuses on a school created to educate expelled students, specifically examining the relationships between educators' beliefs and philosophies and daily school life. At this school, Kelly's ("Last chance high." Yale University Press, New Haven, 1993) competing philosophies of "traditionalism" and…

A chance-constrained stochastic approach to intermodal container routing problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yi; Liu, Ronghui; Zhang, Xi; Whiteing, Anthony

2018-01-01

We consider a container routing problem with stochastic time variables in a sea-rail intermodal transportation system. The problem is formulated as a binary integer chance-constrained programming model including stochastic travel times and stochastic transfer time, with the objective of minimising the expected total cost. Two chance constraints are proposed to ensure that the container service satisfies ship fulfilment and cargo on-time delivery with pre-specified probabilities. A hybrid heuristic algorithm is employed to solve the binary integer chance-constrained programming model. Two case studies are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model and to analyse the impact of stochastic variables and chance-constraints on the optimal solution and total cost.

Predictors of survival in surgically treated patients of spinal metastasis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pravin Padalkar

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background: The spinal metastasis occurs in up to 40% of cancer patient. We compared the Tokuhashi and Tomita scoring systems, two commonly used scoring systems for prognosis in spinal metastases. We also assessed the different variables separately with respect to their value in predicting postsurgical life expectancy. Finally, we suggest criteria for selecting patients for surgery based on the postoperative survival pattern. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 102 patients who had been operated for metastatic disease of the spine. Predictive scoring was done according to the scoring systems proposed by Tokuhashi and Tomita. Overall survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Using the log rank test and Cox regression model we assessed the value of the individual components of each scoring system for predicting survival in these patients. Result: The factors that were most significantly associated with survival were the general condition score (Karnofsky Performance Scale (P=.000, log rank test, metastasis to internal organs (P=.0002 log rank test, and number of extraspinal bone metastases (P=.0058. Type of primary tumor was not found to be significantly associated with survival according to the revised Tokuhashi scoring system (P=.9131, log rank test. Stepwise logistic regression revealed that the Tomita score correlated more closely with survival than the Tokuhashi score. Conclusion: The patient′s performance status, extent of visceral metastasis, and extent of bone metastases are significant predictors of survival in patients with metastatic disease. Both revised Tokuhashi and Tomita scores were significantly correlated with survival. A revised Tokuhashi score of 7 or more and a Tomita score of 6 or less indicated >50% chance of surviving 6 months postoperatively. We recommend that the Tomita score be used for prognostication in patients who are contemplating surgery, as it is simpler to score and has a higher

[Art-chance and art-experience in classical Greece].

Science.gov (United States)

Ban, Deokjin

2011-06-30

In Classical Greece, works defining the nature of art appeared in the various disciplines like medicine, rhetoric, dietetics, architecture and painting. Hippocratic authors tried to show that an art of medicine existed indeed. They contrasted the concept of art with that of chance, not experience that Plato and Aristotle distinguished from art. In fact there are similarities and discrepancies between Hippocratic epistemology and Platoic epistemology. Hippocratic authors maintained that the products of chance were not captured by art. They distinguished the domain of art charactered by explanatory knowledge and prediction from the domain of chance ruled by the unexplained and the unforeseeable. They minimized the role of luck and believed the role of art. Hippocratic authors thought that professional ability contained both knowledge and experience. In Hippocratic corpus, experience is a synonym of competence and usually has a positive meaning. But Plato gave empirical knowledge the disdainful sense and decided a ranking between two types of knowledge. Both Hippocratic authors and Plato held that a genuine art had connection with explanatory knowledge of the nature of its subject matter. A common theme that goes through arguments about art-chance and art-chance is the connection between art and nature. Hippocratic authors and Plato regarded art as a highly systematic process. Art provides us with general and explanatory knowledge of human nature. Art and nature is a mutual relationship. The systematic understanding of nature helps us gain the exactness of art and an exact art helps us understand nature well.

The Second-Chance Club

Science.gov (United States)

Hoover, Eric; Lipka, Sara

2013-01-01

Nobody wants to be here. In remedial English, earning no credit, stuck. Now--after months of commas, clauses, and four-paragraph essays--students have one last chance to write their way out. Twenty students sit at computers, poised to start the final in-class essay for English 002 at Montgomery College. Anybody can enroll here, and all kinds do.…

Fuzzy chance constrained linear programming model for scrap charge optimization in steel production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rong, Aiying; Lahdelma, Risto

2008-01-01

the uncertainty based on fuzzy set theory and constrain the failure risk based on a possibility measure. Consequently, the scrap charge optimization problem is modeled as a fuzzy chance constrained linear programming problem. Since the constraints of the model mainly address the specification of the product...

Chance Constrained Input Relaxation to Congestion in Stochastic DEA. An Application to Iranian Hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Kheirollahi, Hooshang; Matin, Behzad Karami; Mahboubi, Mohammad; Alavijeh, Mehdi Mirzaei

2015-01-01

This article developed an approached model of congestion, based on relaxed combination of inputs, in stochastic data envelopment analysis (SDEA) with chance constrained programming approaches. Classic data envelopment analysis models with deterministic data have been used by many authors to identify congestion and estimate its levels; however, data envelopment analysis with stochastic data were rarely used to identify congestion. This article used chance constrained programming approaches to replace stochastic models with "deterministic equivalents". This substitution leads us to non-linear problems that should be solved. Finally, the proposed method based on relaxed combination of inputs was used to identify congestion input in six Iranian hospital with one input and two outputs in the period of 2009 to 2012.

Bilevel Fuzzy Chance Constrained Hospital Outpatient Appointment Scheduling Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoyang Zhou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Hospital outpatient departments operate by selling fixed period appointments for different treatments. The challenge being faced is to improve profit by determining the mix of full time and part time doctors and allocating appointments (which involves scheduling a combination of doctors, patients, and treatments to a time period in a department optimally. In this paper, a bilevel fuzzy chance constrained model is developed to solve the hospital outpatient appointment scheduling problem based on revenue management. In the model, the hospital, the leader in the hierarchy, decides the mix of the hired full time and part time doctors to maximize the total profit; each department, the follower in the hierarchy, makes the decision of the appointment scheduling to maximize its own profit while simultaneously minimizing surplus capacity. Doctor wage and demand are considered as fuzzy variables to better describe the real-life situation. Then we use chance operator to handle the model with fuzzy parameters and equivalently transform the appointment scheduling model into a crisp model. Moreover, interactive algorithm based on satisfaction is employed to convert the bilevel programming into a single level programming, in order to make it solvable. Finally, the numerical experiments were executed to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

Stochastic programming problems with generalized integrated chance constraints

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Branda, Martin

2012-01-01

Roč. 61, č. 8 (2012), s. 949-968 ISSN 0233-1934 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/1610 Grant - others:SVV(CZ) 261315/2010 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : chance constraints * integrated chance constraints * penalty functions * sample approximations * blending problem Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.707, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/branda-stochastic programming problems with generalized integrated.pdf

Problem of Determining the Chance (Casus) in Criminal Law

Science.gov (United States)

Veresha, Roman V.

2016-01-01

The article considers a concept of chance (casus) in criminal law and its main features. A definition of chance (casus) was analyzed as faultless causing of harm from a perspective of delimitation of the concept from carelessness in the form of criminal negligence. Particular attention is paid to the legislative definition of faultless causing of…

The "Second Chance" Myth: Equality of Opportunity in Irish Adult Education Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Grummell, Bernie

2007-01-01

This article explores the "second chance" myth that surrounds the role of adult education in society. This myth apparently offers all citizens an equal chance to access educational opportunities to improve their life chances. I argue that recent developments in educational policy-making are increasingly shaped by neoliberal discourses…

Childhood Asthma: A Chance to HEAL

Science.gov (United States)

... Home Current Issue Past Issues Special Section Childhood Asthma: A Chance to HEAL Past Issues / Fall 2007 ... a peak flow meter. Photo courtesy of MCAN Asthma, a reality of daily life for more than ...

On Association Measures for Continuous Variables and Correction for Chance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Warrens, Matthijs J.

2015-01-01

This paper studies correction for chance for association measures for continuous variables. The set of linear transformations of Pearson's product-moment correlation is used as the domain of the correction for chance function. Examples of measures in this set are Tucker's congruence coefficient,

Chance findings in skeletal radiology; Zufallsbefunde in der Skelettradiologie

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freyschmidt, Juergen [Beratungsstelle und Referenzzentrum fuer Osteoradiologie, Bremen (Germany)

2016-08-01

The book on chance findings in skeletal radiology covers the following issues: Part (I): Introduction - what are chance findings? Part (II); change findings under different radiological modalities: most frequent skeletal radiological change findings: scintiscanning, radiography and CT, MRT, PET and PET/CT. Part (III): case studies: skull; spinal cord; shoulder/pectoral girdle, chest; pelvis and hip joints; upper extremities; lower extremities.

Entrepreneurs, Chance, and the Deterministic Concentration of Wealth

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Fargione, Joseph E.; Lehman, Clarence; Polasky, Stephen

2011-01-01

In many economies, wealth is strikingly concentrated. Entrepreneurs–individuals with ownership in for-profit enterprises–comprise a large portion of the wealthiest individuals, and their behavior may help explain patterns in the national distribution of wealth. Entrepreneurs are less diversified and more heavily invested in their own companies than is commonly assumed in economic models. We present an intentionally simplified individual-based model of wealth generation among entrepreneurs to assess the role of chance and determinism in the distribution of wealth. We demonstrate that chance alone, combined with the deterministic effects of compounding returns, can lead to unlimited concentration of wealth, such that the percentage of all wealth owned by a few entrepreneurs eventually approaches 100%. Specifically, concentration of wealth results when the rate of return on investment varies by entrepreneur and by time. This result is robust to inclusion of realities such as differing skill among entrepreneurs. The most likely overall growth rate of the economy decreases as businesses become less diverse, suggesting that high concentrations of wealth may adversely affect a country's economic growth. We show that a tax on large inherited fortunes, applied to a small portion of the most fortunate in the population, can efficiently arrest the concentration of wealth at intermediate levels. PMID:21814540

Partner resources and incidence and survival in two major causes of death

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenny Torssander

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Because people tend to marry social equals – and possibly also because partners affect each other’s health – the social position of one partner is associated with the other partner’s health and mortality. Although this link is fairly well established, the underlying mechanisms are not fully identified. Analyzing disease incidence and survival separately may help us to assess when in the course of the disease a partner’s resources are of most significance. This article addresses the importance of partner’s education, income, employment status, and health for incidence and survival in two major causes of death: cancer and cardiovascular diseases (CVD. Based on a sample of Finnish middle-aged and older couples (around 200,000 individuals we show that a partner’s education is more often connected to incidence than to survival, in particular for CVD. Once ill, any direct effect of partner’s education seems to decline: The survival chances after being hospitalized for cancer or CVD are rather associated with partner’s employment status and/or income level when other individual and partner factors are adjusted for. In addition, a partner’s history of poor health predicted higher CVD incidence and, for women, lower cancer survival. The findings suggest that various partner’s characteristics may have different implications for disease and survival, respectively. A wider focus on social determinants of health at the household level, including partner’s social resources, is needed. Keywords: Marital/cohabiting partners, Education, Income, CVD, Cancer, Survival, Finland

Survival rate of breast cancer patients in Malaysia: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, Nor Aini; Wan Mahiyuddin, Wan Rozita; Muhammad, Nor Asiah; Ali, Zainudin Mohamad; Ibrahim, Lailanor; Ibrahim Tamim, Nor Saleha; Mustafa, Amal Nasir; Kamaluddin, Muhammad Amir

2013-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among Malaysian women. Other than hospital-based results, there are no documented population-based survival rates of Malaysian women for breast cancers. This population- based retrospective cohort study was therefore conducted. Data were obtained from Health Informatics Centre, Ministry of Health Malaysia, National Cancer Registry and National Registration Department for the period from 1st Jan 2000 to 31st December 2005. Cases were captured by ICD-10 and linked to death certificates to identify the status. Only complete data were analysed. Survival time was calculated from the estimated date of diagnosis to the date of death or date of loss to follow-up. Observed survival rates were estimated by Kaplan- Meier method using SPSS Statistical Software version 17. A total of 10,230 complete data sets were analysed. The mean age at diagnosis was 50.6 years old. The overall 5-year survival rate was 49% with median survival time of 68.1 months. Indian women had a higher survival rate of 54% compared to Chinese women (49%) and Malays (45%). The overall 5-year survival rate of breast cancer patient among Malaysian women was still low for the cohort of 2000 to 2005 as compared to survival rates in developed nations. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the strategies for early detection and intervention.

Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

Science.gov (United States)

Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

2015-12-01

Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

Chemical and physical effects of crowding on growth and survival of Penaeus monodon Fabricius post-larvae

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nga, B.T.; Lürling, M.F.L.L.W.; Peeters, E.T.H.M.; Roijackers, R.M.M.; Scheffer, M.; Nghia, T.T.

2005-01-01

The hypothesis that crowding effects through physical and/or chemical interference may be an important factor in lowering the chance of survival and reducing growth of Penaeus monodon post-larvae under high stocking densities was tested. To separate physical interference from chemically-exerted

Imprecise system reliability and component importance based on survival signature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng, Geng; Patelli, Edoardo; Beer, Michael; Coolen, Frank P.A.

2016-01-01

The concept of the survival signature has recently attracted increasing attention for performing reliability analysis on systems with multiple types of components. It opens a new pathway for a structured approach with high computational efficiency based on a complete probabilistic description of the system. In practical applications, however, some of the parameters of the system might not be defined completely due to limited data, which implies the need to take imprecisions of component specifications into account. This paper presents a methodology to include explicitly the imprecision, which leads to upper and lower bounds of the survival function of the system. In addition, the approach introduces novel and efficient component importance measures. By implementing relative importance index of each component without or with imprecision, the most critical component in the system can be identified depending on the service time of the system. Simulation method based on survival signature is introduced to deal with imprecision within components, which is precise and efficient. Numerical example is presented to show the applicability of the approach for systems. - Highlights: • Survival signature is a novel way for system reliability and component importance • High computational efficiency based on a complete description of system. • Include explicitly the imprecision, which leads to bounds of the survival function. • A novel relative importance index is proposed as importance measure. • Allows to identify critical components depending on the service time of the system.

On Tradeoffs between Trust and Survivability using a Game Theoretic Approach

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-13

given group protocol. That is, the entire system is penalized or rewarded regardless of which individual entity misbehaved or behaved, so that group...study the tradeoff between group trust and system survivability in the presence of misbehaving nodes and under resource constraints. Lastly, we...threshold. However, in this case, the system penalizes the misbehaving node by evicting it, ultimately eliminating any chance of participation in any group

SURVIVAL RATES IN ORAL CANCER PATIENTS – A 10-YEAR RETROSPECTIVE STUDY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Konstantin Tonchev

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Oral cancer is the eighth most common cancer worldwide and presents a serious health problem in countries with higher alcohol consumption and smoking. The aim of the present study was to analyze the survival rates of patients with oral cancer diagnosed at a single center in Bulgaria. The clinical records of patients with oral cancer admitted to the Clinic of Maxillofacial surgery, University Hospital “St. George”, Plovdiv, Bulgaria, from 2004 till 2013 were reviewed. Additional information about follow-up was obtained from the Regional Complex Oncological Centre (RCOC. Data about patient and tumor characteristics – age, sex, site of cancer, stage, degree of differentiation and survival rates were analyzed. The overall 5-year survival rate was 36% while the disease-specific survival rate was 45%. The highest chance for survival was for upper lip (66% while the lowest was for retromolar trigone (0%. Overall survival rate depended also on the stage and grade of differentiation of the tumor. The study confirmed that oral cancer remains serious problem in terms of risk factors, delayed diagnosis, and overall survival rates.

Correlation between the genetic diversity of nosocomial pathogens and their survival time in intensive care units.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gastmeier, P; Schwab, F; Bärwolff, S; Rüden, H; Grundmann, Hajo

2006-01-01

Bacteria differ in their ability to survive in the hospital environment outside the human host. Species remaining viable and infectious have a higher chance of being transmitted, giving them a fitness advantage in hospitals. This differential fitness could be expected to alter the genetic population

A Second Chance School in Hungary

Science.gov (United States)

Limbacher, Laszlo

2008-01-01

Hungary's "Belvarosi Tanoda" Secondary School offers an informal, flexible environment and alternative teaching methods for students who have had problems in other schools. The "Belvarosi Tanoda" (which translates as downtown school) is a second chance school for students who have dropped out of upper secondary education. It…

Chemotherapy increases long-term survival in patients with adult medulloblastoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kocakaya, Selin; Beier, Christoph Patrick; Beier, Dagmar

2016-01-01

chemotherapy first-line survived significantly longer (mOS: 108 mo, 95% CI: 68.6-148.4) than patients treated with radiation alone (mOS: 57 mo, 95% CI: 39.6-74.4) or patients who received chemotherapy at tumor recurrence. This effect was not biased by tumor stage or decade of treatment. Importantly, (neo...... parts of treatment regimes; however, established prognostic factors and data clarifying the role of chemotherapy are missing. METHODS: We investigated 227 publications from 1969-2013, with 907 identifiable, individual patients being available for meta-analysis. Demographic data, risk stratification......)adjuvant chemotherapy also significantly increased the chance for long-term survival (>5 y) compared with radiotherapy alone or chemotherapy at tumor recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis clarifies relevant prognostic factors and suggests that chemotherapy as part of first-line therapy improves overall survival...

Chance-constrained programming approach to natural-gas curtailment decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guldmann, J M

1981-10-01

This paper presents a modeling methodology for the determination of optimal-curtailment decisions by a gas-distribution utility during a chronic gas-shortage situation. Based on the end-use priority approach, a linear-programming model is formulated, that reallocates the available gas supply among the utility's customers while minimizing fuel switching, unemployment, and utility operating costs. This model is then transformed into a chance-constrained program in order to account for the weather-related variability of the gas requirements. The methodology is applied to the East Ohio Gas Company. 16 references, 2 figures, 3 tables.

5 CFR 831.684 - Second chance elections to provide survivor benefits.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Second chance elections to provide survivor benefits. 831.684 Section 831.684 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT... Noncodified Statutes § 831.684 Second chance elections to provide survivor benefits. (a) A married retiree who...

A clinical tool for predicting survival in ALS.

Science.gov (United States)

Knibb, Jonathan A; Keren, Noa; Kulka, Anna; Leigh, P Nigel; Martin, Sarah; Shaw, Christopher E; Tsuda, Miho; Al-Chalabi, Ammar

2016-12-01

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive and usually fatal neurodegenerative disease. Survival from diagnosis varies considerably. Several prognostic factors are known, including site of onset (bulbar or limb), age at symptom onset, delay from onset to diagnosis and the use of riluzole and non-invasive ventilation (NIV). Clinicians and patients would benefit from a practical way of using these factors to provide an individualised prognosis. 575 consecutive patients with incident ALS from a population-based registry in South-East England register for ALS (SEALS) were studied. Their survival was modelled as a two-step process: the time from diagnosis to respiratory muscle involvement, followed by the time from respiratory involvement to death. The effects of predictor variables were assessed separately for each time interval. Younger age at symptom onset, longer delay from onset to diagnosis and riluzole use were associated with slower progression to respiratory involvement, and NIV use was associated with lower mortality after respiratory involvement, each with a clinically significant effect size. Riluzole may have a greater effect in younger patients and those with longer delay to diagnosis. A patient's survival time has a roughly 50% chance of falling between half and twice the predicted median. A simple and clinically applicable graphical method of predicting an individual patient's survival from diagnosis is presented. The model should be validated in an independent cohort, and extended to include other important prognostic factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Does disaster education of teenagers translate into better survival knowledge, knowledge of skills, and adaptive behavioral change? A systematic literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Codeanu, Tudor A; Celenza, Antonio; Jacobs, Ian

2014-12-01

An increasing number of people are affected worldwide by the effects of disasters, and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) has recognized the need for a radical paradigm shift in the preparedness and combat of the effects of disasters through the implementation of specific actions. At the governmental level, these actions translate into disaster and risk reduction education and activities at school. Fifteen years after the UNISDR declaration, there is a need to know if the current methods of disaster education of the teenage population enhance their knowledge, knowledge of skills in disasters, and whether there is a behavioral change which would improve their chances for survival post disaster. This multidisciplinary systematic literature review showed that the published evidence regarding enhancing the disaster-related knowledge of teenagers and the related problem solving skills and behavior is piecemeal in design, approach, and execution in spite of consensus on the detrimental effects on injury rates and survival. There is some evidence that isolated school-based intervention enhances the theoretical disaster knowledge which may also extend to practical skills; however, disaster behavioral change is not forthcoming. It seems that the best results are obtained by combining theoretical and practical activities in school, family, community, and self-education programs. There is a still a pressing need for a concerted educational drive to achieve disaster preparedness behavioral change. School leavers' lack of knowledge, knowledge of skills, and adaptive behavioral change are detrimental to their chances of survival.

Simulating the Emergence and Survival of Mutations Using a Self Regulating Multitype Branching Processes

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Charles J. Mode

2011-01-01

Full Text Available It is difficult for an experimenter to study the emergence and survival of mutations, because mutations are rare events so that large experimental population must be maintained to ensure a reasonable chance that a mutation will be observed. In his famous book, The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, Sir R. A. Fisher introduced branching processes into evolutionary genetics as a framework for studying the emergence and survival of mutations in an evolving population. During the lifespan of Fisher, computer technology had not advanced to a point at which it became an effective tool for simulating the phenomenon of the emergence and survival of mutations, but given the wide availability of personal desktop and laptop computers, it is now possible and financially feasible for investigators to perform Monte Carlo Simulation experiments. In this paper all computer simulation experiments were carried out within a framework of self regulating multitype branching processes, which are part of a stochastic working paradigm. Emergence and survival of mutations could also be studied within a deterministic paradigm, which raises the issue as to what sense are predictions based on the stochastic and deterministic models are consistent. To come to grips with this issue, a technique was used such that a deterministic model could be embedded in a branching process so that the predictions of both the stochastic and deterministic compared based on the same assigned values of parameters.

On meeting capital requirements with a chance-constrained optimization model.

Science.gov (United States)

Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire; Yu, Bo; Gu, Lanlan

2016-01-01

This paper deals with a capital to risk asset ratio chance-constrained optimization model in the presence of loans, treasury bill, fixed assets and non-interest earning assets. To model the dynamics of loans, we introduce a modified CreditMetrics approach. This leads to development of a deterministic convex counterpart of capital to risk asset ratio chance constraint. We pursue the scope of analyzing our model under the worst-case scenario i.e. loan default. The theoretical model is analyzed by applying numerical procedures, in order to administer valuable insights from a financial outlook. Our results suggest that, our capital to risk asset ratio chance-constrained optimization model guarantees banks of meeting capital requirements of Basel III with a likelihood of 95 % irrespective of changes in future market value of assets.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Background During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On

Conditions for the inauguration of a second nuclear era: chances of success of radical innovation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.

1999-01-01

Facing the stagnation of the world nuclear capacity, the commitments of Kyoto, the chances of re-mobilizing this technology in order to tackle the stakes of stabilisation of CO 2 emissions are assessed. The evolutionist economy of technical change offers a conceptual framework for the identification of factors of the incompatibility of nuclear technology with regard to the industrial, social and political environment in the majority of industrial economies. On the basis of this type of analysis, an examination of the conditions and chances for the re-launch of nuclear technology based on radical innovation designed to be in line with this environment is given. (author)

A spatial scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatt, Vijaya; Tiwari, Neeraj

2014-05-20

The spatial scan statistic has been developed as a geographical cluster detection analysis tool for different types of data sets such as Bernoulli, Poisson, ordinal, normal and exponential. We propose a scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution. It may also be used for other survival distributions, such as exponential, gamma, and log normal. The proposed method is applied on the survival data of tuberculosis patients for the years 2004-2005 in Nainital district of Uttarakhand, India. Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method performs well for different survival distribution functions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Deep learning predictions of survival based on MRI in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Burgh, Hannelore K; Schmidt, Ruben; Westeneng, Henk-Jan; de Reus, Marcel A; van den Berg, Leonard H; van den Heuvel, Martijn P

2017-01-01

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neuromuscular disease, with large variation in survival between patients. Currently, it remains rather difficult to predict survival based on clinical parameters alone. Here, we set out to use clinical characteristics in combination with MRI data to predict survival of ALS patients using deep learning, a machine learning technique highly effective in a broad range of big-data analyses. A group of 135 ALS patients was included from whom high-resolution diffusion-weighted and T1-weighted images were acquired at the first visit to the outpatient clinic. Next, each of the patients was monitored carefully and survival time to death was recorded. Patients were labeled as short, medium or long survivors, based on their recorded time to death as measured from the time of disease onset. In the deep learning procedure, the total group of 135 patients was split into a training set for deep learning (n = 83 patients), a validation set (n = 20) and an independent evaluation set (n = 32) to evaluate the performance of the obtained deep learning networks. Deep learning based on clinical characteristics predicted survival category correctly in 68.8% of the cases. Deep learning based on MRI predicted 62.5% correctly using structural connectivity and 62.5% using brain morphology data. Notably, when we combined the three sources of information, deep learning prediction accuracy increased to 84.4%. Taken together, our findings show the added value of MRI with respect to predicting survival in ALS, demonstrating the advantage of deep learning in disease prognostication.

On the concept of survivability, with application to spacecraft and space-based networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castet, Jean-Francois; Saleh, Joseph H.

2012-01-01

Survivability is an important attribute and requirement for military systems. Recently, survivability has become increasingly important for public infrastructure systems as well. In this work, we bring considerations of survivability to bear on space systems. We develop a conceptual framework and quantitative analyses based on stochastic Petri nets (SPN) to characterize and compare the survivability of different space architectures. The architectures here considered are a monolith spacecraft and a space-based network. To build the stochastic Petri net models for the degradations and failures of these two architectures, we conducted statistical analyses of historical multi-state failure data of spacecraft subsystems, and we assembled these subsystems, and their SPN models, in ways to create our monolith and networked systems. Preliminary results indicate, and quantify the extent to which, a space-based network is more survivable than the monolith spacecraft with respect to on-orbit anomalies and failures. For space systems, during the design and acquisition process, different architectures are benchmarked against several metrics; we argue that if survivability is not accounted for, then the evaluation process is likely to be biased in favor of the traditional dominant design, namely the monolith spacecraft. If however in a given context, survivability is a critical requirement for a customer, the survivability framework here proposed, and the stochastic modeling capability developed, can demonstrate the extent to which a networked space architecture may better satisfy this requirement than a monolith spacecraft. These results should be of interest to operators whose space assets require high levels of survivability, especially in the light of emerging threats.

Improving village poultry's survival rate through community-based poultry health management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sodjinou, Epiphane; Henningsen, Arne; Koudande, Olorounto Delphin

2012-01-01

Community-based poultry health management (CBM) is a strategy for village poultry improvement based on the installment of “poultry interest groups” in experimental villages. These groups serve as a channel for the dissemination of village poultry improvement technologies. The use of CBM is due...... to the fact that village poultry farming is practiced in a total or partial scavenging system which gives the impression that all the birds in the village belong to the same flock. Accordingly, actions that target all farmers of the same village may have a larger impact on the village poultry's survival rate...... than actions that target individual producers. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of CBM on the survival rate of village poultry. Based on data collected on 353 poultry keepers, the study shows that CBM significantly improves the survival rate of village poultry. The adoption...

Survival and Growth of Cottonwood Clones After Angle Planting and Base Angle Treatments

Science.gov (United States)

W.K. Randall; Harvey E. Kennedy

1976-01-01

Presently, commercial cottonwood plantations in the lower Mississippi Valley are established using vertically planted, unrooted cuttings with a flat (90°) base. Neither survival nor first-year growth of a group of six Stoneville clones was improved by angle planting or cutting base angles diagonally. For one clone, survival was significantly better when base angle was...

Content, Cost, Chance, and Collection

OpenAIRE

Lorenzen, Mark

2007-01-01

This Working Paper argues that the film industry is a paradigmatic example of how the organization of the cultural economy is shaped by balancing creativity with contextual issues. In the film industry, organization is far from determined only by creative concerns for content production: Issues of cost, chance and collection also play important roles. Through analyzing creativity and its context in the film industry, the paper explains the industry’s organization, and opens up for understandi...

Inter-clinic variation in the chances of natural conception of subfertile couples

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tjon-Kon-Fat, R. I.; Lar, D. N.; Steyerberg, E. W.; Broekmans, F. J.; Hompes, P.; Mol, B. W. J.; Steures, P.; Bossuyt, P. M. M.; van der Veen, F.; van der Steeg, J. W.; Eijkemans, M. J. C.

2013-01-01

Are there differences between clinics in the chances of natural conception of couples? We found significant differences between clinics in the couples' natural conception chances, which could not be explained by differences in characteristics of the patients or the clinics. In pooled data from

Chance constrained uncertain classification via robust optimization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ben-Tal, A.; Bhadra, S.; Bhattacharayya, C.; Saketha Nat, J.

2011-01-01

This paper studies the problem of constructing robust classifiers when the training is plagued with uncertainty. The problem is posed as a Chance-Constrained Program (CCP) which ensures that the uncertain data points are classified correctly with high probability. Unfortunately such a CCP turns out

Chance and necessity in eye evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Gehring, Walter J

2011-01-01

Charles Darwin has proposed the theory that evolution of live organisms is based on random variation and natural selection. Jacques Monod in his classic book Chance and Necessity, published 40 years ago, presented his thesis "that the biosphere does not contain a predictable class of objects or events, but constitutes a particular occurrence, compatible indeed with the first principles, but not deducible from those principals and therefore, essentially unpredictable." Recent discoveries in eye evolution are in agreement with both of these theses. They confirm Darwin's assumption of a simple eye prototype and lend strong support for the notion of a monophyletic origin of the various eye types. Considering the complexity of the underlying gene regulatory networks the unpredictability is obvious. The evolution of the Hox gene cluster and the specification of the body plan starting from an evolutionary prototype segment is discussed. In the course of evolution, a series of similar prototypic segments gradually undergoes cephalization anteriorly and caudalization posteriorly through diversification of the Hox genes.

Economic Dispatch of the Low-Carbon Green Certificate with Wind Farms Based on Fuzzy Chance Constraints

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiuyun Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available As the low-carbon economy continues to expand, wind power, as one form of clean energy, promotes the low-carbon power development process. In this paper, a multi-objective environmental economic dispatch (EED model is proposed considering multiple uncertainties of the system. Carbon trading costs and green certificate trading costs are introduced into the economic costs. Meanwhile, the objective function of pollutant emissions is taken into account in the model, which can further promote the reduction of pollutant emissions in the system scheduling. The output of wind turbines is uncertain and volatile, so it brings new challenges to the power system EED once the large-scale wind power accesses the power grid. For the multiple uncertainties of the system, fuzzy chance-constrained programming is introduced, and the output of the wind turbines and the load are regarded as fuzzy variables. We use the clear equivalence forms to clarify the fuzzy chance constraints. The improved multi-objective standard particle swarm optimization (SPSO algorithm is used to solve the optimization problem effectively. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm are verified by an example of a 10-unit system with two wind farms.

eLEARNING - A CHANCE FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED ENTERPRISES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ileana Hamburg

2005-12-01

Full Text Available eLearning through its flexibility and facility of access is seen as a major enabler of lifelong learning (LLL, as a catalyst of change and a chance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs to improve their business and to integrate into European market. But so far the eLearning in the context of vocational educational training has been mainly adopted by large enterprises, while only little activity can be observed in SMEs. The question arises what the chances and challenges for SMEs are and what is the experience with its usage. In this paper after a presentation of key issues in eLearning chances and challenges of eLearning for SMEs are discussed and experiences are exemplified by three EU-funded eLearning projects. The focus lies on the ongoing project ARIEL - Analysing and Reporting the Implementation of Electronic Learning in Europe - coordinated by the Institut Arbeit und Technik (IAT.

Investment in Second-Chance Education for Adults and Income Development in Sweden

Science.gov (United States)

Nordlund, Madelene; Stehlik, Tom; Strandh, Mattias

2013-01-01

This article investigates the relation between the second chance of increase in formal education amongst low-educated adults in Sweden and long-term wage development. Despite the awareness of the role of education for employability and individuals' overall life chances, surprisingly few studies have investigated the wage effects of Second-Chance…

Chance vs. necessity in living systems: a false antinomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Buiatti, Marcello; Buiatti, Marco

2008-01-01

The concepts of order and randomness are crucial to understand 'living systems' structural and dynamical rules. In the history of biology, they lay behind the everlasting debate on the relative roles of chance and determinism in evolution. Jacques Monod [1970] built a theory where chance (randomness) and determinism (order) were considered as two complementary aspects of life. In the present paper, we will give an up to date version of the problem going beyond the dichotomy between chance and determinism. To this end, we will first see how the view on living systems has evolved from the mechanistic one of the 19th century to the one stemming from the most recent literature, where they emerge as complex systems continuously evolving through multiple interactions among their components and with the surrounding environment. We will then report on the ever increasing evidence of "friendly" co-existence in living beings between a number of "variability generators", fixed by evolution, and the "spontaneous order" derived from interactions between components. We will propose that the "disorder" generated is "benevolent" because it allows living systems to rapidly adapt to changes in the environment by continuously changing, while keeping their internal harmony.

Identifying Critical Nutrient Intake in Groups at Risk of Poverty in Europe: The CHANCE Project Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Nikolić, Marina; Glibetić, Maria; Gurinović, Mirjana; Milešević, Jelena; Khokhar, Santosh; Chillo, Stefania; Abaravicius, Jonas Algis; Bordoni, Alessandra; Capozzi, Francesco

2014-01-01

The aim of the CHANCE project is to develop novel and affordable nutritious foods to optimize the diet and reduce the risk of diet-related diseases among groups at risk of poverty (ROP). This paper describes the methodology used in the two initial steps to accomplish the project’s objective as follows: 1. a literature review of existing data and 2. an identification of ROP groups with which to design and perform the CHANCE nutritional survey, which will supply new data that is useful for formulating the new CHANCE food. Based on the literature review, a low intake of fruit and vegetables, whole grain products, fish, energy, fiber, vitamins B1, B2, B3, B6, B12 and C, folate, calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and zinc and a high intake of starchy foods, processed meat and sodium were apparent. However, the available data appeared fragmented because of the different methodologies used in the studies. A more global vision of the main nutritional problems that are present among low-income people in Europe is needed, and the first step to achieve this goal is the use of common criteria to define the risk of poverty. The scoring system described here represents novel criteria for defining at-risk-of-poverty groups not only in the CHANCE-participating countries but also all over Europe. PMID:24699195

Identifying Critical Nutrient Intake in Groups at Risk of Poverty in Europe: The CHANCE Project Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marina Nikolić

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of the CHANCE project is to develop novel and affordable nutritious foods to optimize the diet and reduce the risk of diet-related diseases among groups at risk of poverty (ROP. This paper describes the methodology used in the two initial steps to accomplish the project’s objective as follows: 1. a literature review of existing data and 2. an identification of ROP groups with which to design and perform the CHANCE nutritional survey, which will supply new data that is useful for formulating the new CHANCE food. Based on the literature review, a low intake of fruit and vegetables, whole grain products, fish, energy, fiber, vitamins B1, B2, B3, B6, B12 and C, folate, calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and zinc and a high intake of starchy foods, processed meat and sodium were apparent. However, the available data appeared fragmented because of the different methodologies used in the studies. A more global vision of the main nutritional problems that are present among low-income people in Europe is needed, and the first step to achieve this goal is the use of common criteria to define the risk of poverty. The scoring system described here represents novel criteria for defining at-risk-of-poverty groups not only in the CHANCE-participating countries but also all over Europe.

Identifying critical nutrient intake in groups at risk of poverty in Europe: the CHANCE project approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Nikolić, Marina; Glibetić, Maria; Gurinović, Mirjana; Milešević, Jelena; Khokhar, Santosh; Chillo, Stefania; Abaravicius, Jonas Algis; Bordoni, Alessandra; Capozzi, Francesco

2014-04-02

The aim of the CHANCE project is to develop novel and affordable nutritious foods to optimize the diet and reduce the risk of diet-related diseases among groups at risk of poverty (ROP). This paper describes the methodology used in the two initial steps to accomplish the project's objective as follows: 1. a literature review of existing data and 2. an identification of ROP groups with which to design and perform the CHANCE nutritional survey, which will supply new data that is useful for formulating the new CHANCE food. Based on the literature review, a low intake of fruit and vegetables, whole grain products, fish, energy, fiber, vitamins B1, B2, B3, B6, B12 and C, folate, calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and zinc and a high intake of starchy foods, processed meat and sodium were apparent. However, the available data appeared fragmented because of the different methodologies used in the studies. A more global vision of the main nutritional problems that are present among low-income people in Europe is needed, and the first step to achieve this goal is the use of common criteria to define the risk of poverty. The scoring system described here represents novel criteria for defining at-risk-of-poverty groups not only in the CHANCE-participating countries but also all over Europe.

Trusting the other or taking a chance?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frederiksen, Morten; Heinskou, Marie Bruvik

2016-01-01

Theories of modernity and risk society argue that increasing levels of risk fundamentally alter or lower the level of trust in society. In this article we argue that this assumption is based in a fallacious theoretical link between trust and risk. Rather than calculative assessment of risk...... and specific events, trust directs anticipation towards process. First, we outline dominant approaches to trust as a question of actions and uncertainty of outcomes, arguing that these approaches treat trust and chance as interchangeable, conflating the different socio-temporalities within which risk and trust......, respectively, reside. Secondly, the issue of temporality is traced in Luhmann’s work on trust and it is demonstrated how his dichotomous treatment of social time conflates markedly different temporal experiences. As a solution to this, the article presents the notion of a third temporal mode of the process...

eLEARNING - A CHANCE FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED ENTERPRISES

OpenAIRE

Ileana Hamburg; Christiane Lindecke; Judith Terstriep

2005-01-01

eLearning through its flexibility and facility of access is seen as a major enabler of lifelong learning (LLL), as a catalyst of change and a chance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to improve their business and to integrate into European market. But so far the eLearning in the context of vocational educational training has been mainly adopted by large enterprises, while only little activity can be observed in SMEs. The question arises what the chances and challenges for SMEs are...

Is poker a game of skill or chance? A quasi-experimental study.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Gerhard; von Meduna, Marc; Brosowski, Tim; Hayer, Tobias

2013-09-01

Due to intensive marketing and the rapid growth of online gambling, poker currently enjoys great popularity among large sections of the population. Although poker is legally a game of chance in most countries, some (particularly operators of private poker web sites) argue that it should be regarded as a game of skill or sport because the outcome of the game primarily depends on individual aptitude and skill. The available findings indicate that skill plays a meaningful role; however, serious methodological weaknesses and the absence of reliable information regarding the relative importance of chance and skill considerably limit the validity of extant research. Adopting a quasi-experimental approach, the present study examined the extent to which the influence of poker playing skill was more important than card distribution. Three average players and three experts sat down at a six-player table and played 60 computer-based hands of the poker variant "Texas Hold'em" for money. In each hand, one of the average players and one expert received (a) better-than-average cards (winner's box), (b) average cards (neutral box) and (c) worse-than-average cards (loser's box). The standardized manipulation of the card distribution controlled the factor of chance to determine differences in performance between the average and expert groups. Overall, 150 individuals participated in a "fixed-limit" game variant, and 150 individuals participated in a "no-limit" game variant. ANOVA results showed that experts did not outperform average players in terms of final cash balance. Rather, card distribution was the decisive factor for successful poker playing. However, expert players were better able to minimize losses when confronted with disadvantageous conditions (i.e., worse-than-average cards). No significant differences were observed between the game variants. Furthermore, supplementary analyses confirm differential game-related actions dependent on the card distribution, player status

Solitary plasmacytoma: population-based analysis of survival trends and effect of various treatment modalities in the USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Thumallapally, Nishitha; Meshref, Ahmed; Mousa, Mohammed; Terjanian, Terenig

2017-01-05

Solitary plasmacytoma (SP) is a localized neoplastic plasma cell disorder with an annual incidence of less than 450 cases. Given the rarity of this disorder, it is difficult to conduct large-scale population studies. Consequently, very limited information on the disorder is available, making it difficult to estimate the incidence and survival rates. Furthermore, limited information is available on the efficacy of various treatment modalities in relation to primary tumor sites. The data for this retrospective study were drawn from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, which comprises 18 registries; patient demographics, treatment modalities and survival rates were obtained for those diagnosed with SP from 1998 to 2007. Various prognostic factors were analyzed via Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test, with 5-year relative survival rate defined as the primary outcome of interest. Cox regression analysis was employed in the multivariate analysis. The SEER search from 1998 to 2007 yielded records for 1691 SP patients. The median age at diagnosis was 63 years. The patient cohort was 62.4% male, 37.6% female, 80% Caucasian, 14.6% African American and 5.4% other races. Additionally, 57.8% had osseous plasmacytoma, and 31.9% had extraosseous involvement. Unspecified plasmacytoma was noted in 10.2% of patients. The most common treatment modalities were radiotherapy (RT) (48.8%), followed by combination surgery with RT (21.2%) and surgery alone (11.6%). Univariate analysis of prognostic factors revealed that the survival outcomes were better for younger male patients who received RT with surgery (p multiple myeloma (MM) was noted in 551 patients. Age >60 years was associated with a lower 5-year survival in patients who progressed to MM compared to those who were diagnosed initially with MM (15.1 vs 16.6%). Finally, those who received RT and progressed to MM still had a higher chance of survival than those who were diagnosed with MM initially and

Citation analysis of the scientific publications of Britton Chance in ISI citation indexes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Z. Li

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Britton Chance was a pioneer in many scientific fields such as enzymatic reaction kinetics, bioenergetics, metabolism, in vivo NMR, and biophotonics. As an engineer, physical chemist, physicist, physiologist, biophysicist, biochemist, innovator and educator, he had worked in diversified fields over extended periods between 1926 until his death in 2010, at the age of 97. In order to illustrate his scientific career and great impact on research from a new perspective, we employ scientometric analysis tools to analyze the publications of Britton Chance with data downloaded from the ISI Citation Indexes in April 2013. We included articles, reviews and proceeding papers but excluded meeting abstracts. In total, we obtained 1023 publication records with 1236 authors in 266 journals with 17,114 citations from 1945 to 2013. We show the annual publications and citations that Britton Chance received from 1945 to 2013, and generate HistCite maps on the basis of the global citations (GCS and local (self citations (LCS to show the citation relationships among the top-30 publications of Britton Chance. Metabolism and the development of physical methods to probe it appear to be the connecting thread of the lifelong research of Britton Chance. Furthermore, we generate the journal map and co-authorship map to show the broad scope of research topics and collaborators and the high impacts of the scientific oeuvre of Britton Chance ranging from physics, engineering, chemistry and biology to medicine.

Response to Gelman Comments in Chance Magazine

Science.gov (United States)

Carl Blackman Letter to the Editor of Chance Magazine: I appreciate being given the opportunity to comment on an editorial column by Andrew Gelman, entitled "Ethics and Statistics", that appeared in 2011, volume 24, no. 4, pages 51-53, in which my colleagues and I and our 1988 ...

Unique Mechanism of Chance Fracture in a Young Adult Male

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aaron Birch

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Since the first description of the Chance fracture in 1948, there have been few case reports ofunique mechanisms causing this classical flexion-extension injury to the spine in motor vehicleaccidents, sports injury, and falls. To our knowledge, this injury has not been reported from a fall withthe mechanistic forces acting laterally on the spine and with spinal support in place. We present a21-year-old male who slid down a flight of stairs onto his side wearing a heavy mountaineering stylebackpack, subsequently sustaining a Chance fracture of his first lumbar vertebrae.

Multifactorial risk assessment for survival of abutments of removable partial dentures based on practice-based longitudinal study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tada, Sayaka; Ikebe, Kazunori; Matsuda, Ken-Ichi; Maeda, Yoshinobu

2013-12-01

Predicting the tooth survival is such a great challenge for evidence-based dentistry. To prevent further tooth loss of partially edentulous patients, estimation of individualized risk and benefit for each residual tooth is important to the clinical decision-making. While there are several reports indicating a risk of losing the abutment teeth of RPDs, there are no existing reports exploring the cause of abutment loss by multifactorial analysis. The aim of this practice-based longitudinal study was to determine the prognostic factors affecting the survival period of RPD abutments using a multifactorial risk assessment. One hundred and forty-seven patients had been previously provided with a total of 236 new RPDs at the Osaka University Dental Hospital; the 856 abutments for these RPDs were analyzed. Survival of abutment teeth was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis was conducted by Cox's proportional hazard modelling. The 5-year survival rates were 86.6% for direct abutments and 93.1% for indirect abutments, compared with 95.8% survival in non-abutment teeth. The multivariate analysis showed that abutment survival was significantly associated with crown-root ratio (hazard ratio (HR): 3.13), root canal treatment (HR: 2.93), pocket depth (HR: 2.51), type of abutments (HR: 2.19) and occlusal support (HR: 1.90). From this practice-based longitudinal study, we concluded that RPD abutment teeth are more likely to be lost than other residual teeth. From the multifactorial risk factor assessment, several prognostic factors, such as occlusal support, crown-root ratio, root canal treatment, and pocket depth were suggested. These results could be used to estimate the individualized risk for the residual teeth, to predict the prognosis of RPD abutments and to facilitate an evidence-based clinical decision making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Control and Chance in Music and Art a Survey of Philosophies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuang Cai

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This article is a survey and review of several writings on the philosophies and compositional techniques involving control and chance in the creation of modern art and music. The purpose of discussing and comparing these writings is to trace different understandings, reactions, and interpretations of these philosophies in order to offer a more informed perspective on these oft misunderstood techniques. The first article analyzed is Robert Charles Clark’s “Total Control and Chance in Musics: A Philosophical Analysis,” which discusses fundamental issues regarding both total control and chance music. The second article, Stephanie Ross’ “Chance, Constraint, and Creativity: The Awfulness of Modern Music,” presents some of the adverse reactions to these methods of composition. The third and fourth articles, Roland Barthes’ “The Death of the Author” and “From Work to Text,” offer a broader philosophical viewpoint on the different roles of the author and their product when creating art. The final article, Jeongwon Joe and S. Hoon Song’s “Roland Barthes’ ‘Text’ and Aleatoric Music: Is the ‘Birth of the Reader’ the Birth of the Listener?” concludes this survey by tying Barthes’ concepts back to music.

Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

Improving village poultry’s survival rate through community-based poultry health management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sodjinou, Epiphane; Henningsen, Arne; Koudande, Olorounto D.

Community-based poultry health management (CBM) is a strategy for village poultry improvement based on the installment of “poultry interest groups” in experimental villages. These groups serve as a channel for the dissemination of village poultry improvement technologies. The use of CBM is due...... to the fact that village poultry farming is practiced in a total or partial scavenging system which gives the impression that all the birds in the village belong to the same flock. Accordingly, actions that target all farmers of the same village may have a larger impact on the village poultry’s survival rate...... than actions that target individual producers. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of CBM on the survival rate of village poultry. Based on data collected on 353 poultry keepers, the study shows that CBM significantly improves the survival rate of village poultry. The adoption...

Chance constrained problems: penalty reformulation and performance of sample approximation technique

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Branda, Martin

2012-01-01

Roč. 48, č. 1 (2012), s. 105-122 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : chance constrained problems * penalty functions * asymptotic equivalence * sample approximation technique * investment problem Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.619, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/branda-chance constrained problems penalty reformulation and performance of sample approximation technique.pdf

Decay times for second-chance fission of 239U studied by crystal blocking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersen, J.U.; Chechenin, N.G.; Jensen, A.S.; Joergensen, K.; Laegsgaard, E.

1979-01-01

Neutron-induced fission of 238 U has been studied by the crystal-blocking technique for neutron energies just below and above the threshold for second-chance fission. In agreement with earlier measurements, in this energy range the lifetime for first-chance fission is found to be too short to have an observable effect on the blocking dips. Above the threshold, however, an appreciable filling-in of the dips is observed. The results are analyzed in the terms of a two-component lifetime distribution and then indicate an average lifetime of a few fsec for second-chance fission at a neutron energy of Esub(n)approximately7.2 MeV, in agreement with results from a simple calculation. It is shown that in this analysis it is important to take into account the anisotropy of the fission-fragment distribution and, in particular, the difference between the angular distributions for first- and second-chance fission. (Auth.)

New graphic AUC-based method to estimate overall survival benefit: pomalidomide reanalysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fenix-Caballero, S; Diaz-Navarro, J; Prieto-Callejero, B; Rios-Sanchez, E; Alegre-del Rey, E J; Borrero-Rubio, J M

2016-02-01

Difference in median survival is an erratic measure and sometimes does not provide a good assessment of survival benefit. The aim of this study was to reanalyse the overall survival benefit of pomalidomide from pivotal clinical trial using a new area under curve (AUC)-based method. In the pivotal trial, pomalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone showed a significant survival benefit over high-dose dexamethasone, with a difference between medians of 4.6 months. The new AUC method applied to the survival curves, obtained an overall survival benefit of 2.6 months for the pomalidomide treatment. This average difference in OS was calculated for the 61.5% of patients for whom the time to event is reliable enough. This 2-month differential would have major clinical and pharmacoeconomic implications, on both cost-effectiveness studies and on the willingness of the healthcare systems to pay for this treatment. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Chance Fracture Secondary to a Healed Kyphotic Compression Osteoporotic Fracture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teh KK

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Chance fracture is an unstable vertebral fracture, which usually results from a high velocity injury. An elderly lady with a previously healed osteoporotic fracture of the T12 and L1 vertebra which resulted in a severe kyphotic deformity subsequently sustained a Chance fracture of the adjacent L2 vertebrae after a minor fall. The previously fracture left her with a deformity which resulted in significant sagittal imbalance therefore predisposing her to this fracture. This case highlights the importance of aggressive treatment of osteoporotic fractures in order to prevent significant sagittal imbalance from resultant (i.e. kyphotic deformity.

Prognostic factors in patients with advanced cancer: use of the patient-generated subjective global assessment in survival prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Lisa; Watanabe, Sharon; Fainsinger, Robin; Lau, Francis; Ghosh, Sunita; Quan, Hue; Atkins, Marlis; Fassbender, Konrad; Downing, G Michael; Baracos, Vickie

2010-10-01

To determine whether elements of a standard nutritional screening assessment are independently prognostic of survival in patients with advanced cancer. A prospective nested cohort of patients with metastatic cancer were accrued from different units of a Regional Palliative Care Program. Patients completed a nutritional screen on admission. Data included age, sex, cancer site, height, weight history, dietary intake, 13 nutrition impact symptoms, and patient- and physician-reported performance status (PS). Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were conducted. Concordance statistics (c-statistics) were used to test the predictive accuracy of models based on training and validation sets; a c-statistic of 0.5 indicates the model predicts the outcome as well as chance; perfect prediction has a c-statistic of 1.0. A training set of patients in palliative home care (n = 1,164) was used to identify prognostic variables. Primary disease site, PS, short-term weight change (either gain or loss), dietary intake, and dysphagia predicted survival in multivariate analysis (P statistics between predicted and observed responses for survival in the training set (0.90) and validation set (0.88; n = 603). The addition of weight change, dietary intake, and dysphagia did not further improve the c-statistic of the model. The c-statistic was also not altered by substituting physician-rated palliative PS for patient-reported PS. We demonstrate a high probability of concordance between predicted and observed survival for patients in distinct palliative care settings (home care, tertiary inpatient, ambulatory outpatient) based on patient-reported information.

A Note on Liu-Iwamura's Dependent-Chance Programming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rossi, R.; Tarim, S.A.; Hnich, B.; Prestwich, S.; Guren, C.

2009-01-01

Sometimes a complex stochastic decision system undertakes multiple tasks called events, and the decision-maker wishes to maximize the chance functions which are defined as the probabilities of satisfying these events. Originally introduced by Liu and Iwamura [B. Liu, K. Iwamura, Modelling stochastic

Cancer survival in Cixian of China, 2003-2013: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Dongfang; Li, Daojuan; Song, Guohui; Liang, Di; Chen, Chao; Zhang, Yachen; Gao, Zhaoyu; He, Yutong

2018-04-01

Cixian is one of the high-risk areas for upper gastrointestinal cancer in China and the world. From 2005, comprehensive population-based screening for upper gastrointestinal cancers has been conducted in Cixian. The aim of this study was to investigate population-based cancer survival from 2003 to 2013 and to explore the effect of screening on upper gastrointestinal cancer survival in Cixian. Observed survival was estimated using the life table method. The expected survival from the general population was calculated using all-cause mortality data from the population of Cixian with the EdererII method. Cixian cancer registry, with a total coverage of 6.88 million person years, recorded 19,628 cancer patients diagnosed during 2003-2013. In Cixian, from 2003 to 2013, there were 19,628 newly cancer cases and 13,984 cancer deaths, with an incidence rate of 285.37/100,000 and mortality rate of 203.31/100,000. The overall five-year relative cancer survival for patients diagnosed in Cixian in 2003-2013 was 22.53%. The relative survival for all cancers combined in Cixian had an overall upward trend from 2003 to 2013. Among upper gastrointestinal cancer in Cixian, the five-year relative survival for cardia gastric cancer was highest at 30.42%, followed by oesophageal cancer at 25.37% and noncardia gastric cancer at 18.93%. In 2013, the five-year relative survival for oesophageal cancer, cardia gastric cancer, and noncardia gastric cancer patients aged 45-69 years was 39.97% (95% CI: 34.52-45.43%), 51.74% (95% CI: 42.09-60.86%), and 37.43% (95% CI: 26.93-48.17%), respectively, the absolute values increasing 14.11%, 16.71%, and 14.92% compared with that in 2003. There is an increasing trend in overall survival for upper gastrointestinal cancer with early screening and treatment of cancer in Cixian. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of self-reported health and register-based prescription medicine purchases on re-employment chances: A prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Svane-Petersen, Annemette Coop; Dencker-Larsen, Sofie

2016-12-01

In this paper, we investigate the influence of self-reported health and register-based prescription medicine purchases on re-employment chances, and whether these health indicators measure similar aspects of health in this analysis. Data came from a 2006 Danish unemployment survey among a random sample of unemployed individuals enriched with register data (2006-2008, N =1806). The survey participants all received unemployment benefits from the welfare system and had been unemployed for more than 20 weeks at the time of the interview in 2006. We combined these data with longitudinal register data on individual prescription medicine purchases for somatic illnesses and prescription medicine purchases for mental illnesses, information on re-employment and various socio-demographic variables. We conducted binary logistic regression analyses to investigate the impact of self-reported health and prescription medicine purchases measured in 2006 on re-employment chances in 2007 and 2008. Our analyses show that unemployed workers with poor self-reported health and workers who had prescription medicine purchases for mental illnesses were less likely to be re-employed in 2007 and 2008. Furthermore, the impact of both prescription medicine purchases for somatic illnesses and for mental illnesses increased when adding self-reported health to the model although prescription purchases for somatic illnesses became statistically insignificant. The impact of prescription medicine purchases for somatic illnesses was mediated by self-reported health, whilst prescription medicine purchases for mental illnesses was only partly mediated. Finally, SRH seemed a much stronger prediction than prescription medicines. From these results, we propose, when possible, the inclusion of both an indicator of self-reported health and an indicator of mental health in studies on re-employment.

Childhood predictors of first chance to use and use of cannabis by young adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Storr, Carla L; Wagner, Fernando A; Chen, Chuan-Yu; Anthony, James C

2011-08-01

To prospectively examine the linkage between childhood antecedents and progression to early cannabis involvement as manifest in first chance to try it and then first onset of cannabis use. Two consecutive cohorts of children entering first grade of a public school system of a large mid-Atlantic city in the mid 1980s (n=2311) were assessed (mean age 6.5 years) and then followed into young adulthood (15 years later, mean age 21) when first chance to try and first use were assessed for 75% (n=1698) of the original sample. Assessments obtained at school included standardized readiness scores (reading; math) and teacher ratings of behavioral problems. Regression and time to event models included covariates for sex, race, and family disadvantage. Early classroom misconduct, better reading readiness, and better math readiness predicted either occurrence or timing of first chance to try cannabis, first use, or both. Higher levels of childhood concentration problems and lower social connectedness were not predictive. Childhood school readiness and behavioral problems may influence the risk for cannabis smoking indirectly via an increased likelihood of first chance to use. Prevention efforts that seek to shield youths from having a chance to try cannabis might benefit from attention to early predictive behavioral and school readiness characteristics. When a youth's chance to try cannabis is discovered, there are new windows of opportunity for prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors driving inequality in prostate cancer survival: a population based study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richéal M Burns

Full Text Available PURPOSE: As cancer control strategies have become more successful, issues around survival have become increasingly important to researchers and policy makers. The aim of this study was to examine the role of a range of clinical and socio-demographic variables in explaining variations in survival after a prostate cancer diagnosis, paying particular attention to the role of healthcare provider(s i.e. private versus public status. METHODS: Data were extracted from the National Cancer Registry Ireland, for patients diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1998-2009 (N = 26,183. A series of multivariate Cox and logistic regression models were used to examine the role of healthcare provider and socio-economic status (area-based deprivation on survival, controlling for age, stage, Gleason grade, marital status and region of residence. Survival was based on all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Older individuals who were treated in a private care setting were more likely to have survived than those who had not, when other factors were controlled for. Differences were evident with respect to marital status, region of residence, clinical stage and Gleason grade. The effect of socio-economic status was modified by healthcare provider, such that risk of death was higher in those men of lower socio-economic status treated by public, but not private providers in the Cox models. The logistic models revealed a socio-economic gradient in risk of death overall; the gradient was larger for those treated by public providers compared to those treated by private providers when controlling for a range of other confounding factors. CONCLUSION: The role of healthcare provider and socio-economic status in survival of men with prostate cancer may give rise to concerns that warrant further investigation.

Chance, determinism and the classical theory of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Vasudevan, Anubav

2018-02-01

This paper situates the metaphysical antinomy between chance and determinism in the historical context of some of the earliest developments in the mathematical theory of probability. Since Hacking's seminal work on the subject, it has been a widely held view that the classical theorists of probability were guilty of an unwitting equivocation between a subjective, or epistemic, interpretation of probability, on the one hand, and an objective, or statistical, interpretation, on the other. While there is some truth to this account, I argue that the tension at the heart of the classical theory of probability is not best understood in terms of the duality between subjective and objective interpretations of probability. Rather, the apparent paradox of chance and determinism, when viewed through the lens of the classical theory of probability, manifests itself in a much deeper ambivalence on the part of the classical probabilists as to the rational commensurability of causal and probabilistic reasoning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival of extrasolar giant planet moons in planet-planet scattering

Science.gov (United States)

CIAN HONG, YU; Lunine, Jonathan; Nicholson, Phillip; Raymond, Sean

2015-12-01

Planet-planet scattering is the best candidate mechanism for explaining the eccentricity distribution of exoplanets. Here we study the survival and dynamics of exomoons under strong perturbations during giant planet scattering. During close encounters, planets and moons exchange orbital angular momentum and energy. The most common outcomes are the destruction of moons by ejection from the system, collision with the planets and the star, and scattering of moons onto perturbed but still planet-bound orbits. A small percentage of interesting moons can remain bound to ejected (free-floating) planets or be captured by a different planet. Moons' survival rate is correlated with planet observables such as mass, semi-major axis, eccentricity and inclination, as well as the close encounter distance and the number of close encounters. In addition, moons' survival rate and dynamical outcomes are predetermined by the moons' initial semi-major axes. The survival rate drops quickly as moons' distances increase, but simulations predict a good chance of survival for the Galilean moons. Moons with different dynamical outcomes occupy different regions of orbital parameter space, which may enable the study of moons' past evolution. Potential effects of planet obliquity evolution caused by close encounters on the satellites’ stability and dynamics will be reported, as well as detailed and systematic studies of individual close encounter events.

Nuclear war survival skills

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kearney, C.H.

1979-09-01

This book includes chapters on psychological preparations, warning and communications, and evacuation. It describes the building of expedient shelters, their ventilation and cooling, the purification and storage of adequate water, the processing and cooking of whole grains and legumes, fallout meters, protection against fires and carbon monoxide, and expedient furnishings for shelters. Other chapters cover sanitation and preventive medicine, medical advice for nuclear survivors lacking the help of doctors, improvised footwear and clothing, and advice on minimum preparations that can be made at low cost and should be made before a crisis arises. One appendix of the handbook gives detailed, field-tested instructions for building six types of earth-covered expedient fallout shelters, with criteria to guide the choice of which shelter to build. Others contain instructions for making an efficient shelter-ventilating pump and a homemade fallout meter that is accurate and dependable with inexpensive materials found in most households. This report is primarily a compilation and summary of civil defense measures and inventions developed at ORNL over the past 14 years and field-tested in six states, from Florida to Utah. It is the first comprehensive handbook of survival information for use by untrained citizens who want to improve their chances of surviving a possible nuclear attack. Sections may be easily excerpted and reproduced for mass distribution through news media

Long-term survival after resection of a primary leiomyosarcoma of the innominate vein Report of a case.

Science.gov (United States)

Illuminati, Giulio; Miraldi, Fabio; A Pacilè, Maria; Palumbo, Piero; Vietri, Francesco

2012-10-29

Leiomyosarcoma of the innominate vein is a rare but usually lethal disease. We report the case of a 50-year-old woman, undergoing a curative resection of the tumor. She is alive and free of disease at 88-month follow-up. Surgical excision remains the current optimal treatment able to provide a chance of cure. KEY WORDS: Late survival, Venous leiomyosarcoma.

Contraceptive use and perceptions of chance and ability of conceiving in women electing abortion.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, P M

1983-01-01

A convenient sample of 32 women seeking abortion was studied to determine the relationship between a woman's use of birth control and her perception of her chance and ability of conceiving. Subjects were between the ages of 16 and 29 years, white, unmarried, and gravida one. The Consistency Chance and Ability inventory, a self-report questionnaire, was completed by each subject. The data show a relationship between a woman's use of birth control and her perception of her chance and ability of conceiving. How nurses can assist women in making choices about contraceptive use is discussed.

Inexact nonlinear improved fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for irrigation water management under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Chenglong; Zhang, Fan; Guo, Shanshan; Liu, Xiao; Guo, Ping

2018-01-01

An inexact nonlinear mλ-measure fuzzy chance-constrained programming (INMFCCP) model is developed for irrigation water allocation under uncertainty. Techniques of inexact quadratic programming (IQP), mλ-measure, and fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FCCP) are integrated into a general optimization framework. The INMFCCP model can deal with not only nonlinearities in the objective function, but also uncertainties presented as discrete intervals in the objective function, variables and left-hand side constraints and fuzziness in the right-hand side constraints. Moreover, this model improves upon the conventional fuzzy chance-constrained programming by introducing a linear combination of possibility measure and necessity measure with varying preference parameters. To demonstrate its applicability, the model is then applied to a case study in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwest China. An interval regression analysis method is used to obtain interval crop water production functions in the whole growth period under uncertainty. Therefore, more flexible solutions can be generated for optimal irrigation water allocation. The variation of results can be examined by giving different confidence levels and preference parameters. Besides, it can reflect interrelationships among system benefits, preference parameters, confidence levels and the corresponding risk levels. Comparison between interval crop water production functions and deterministic ones based on the developed INMFCCP model indicates that the former is capable of reflecting more complexities and uncertainties in practical application. These results can provide more reliable scientific basis for supporting irrigation water management in arid areas.

How the definition of acceptable antigens and epitope analysis can facilitate transplantation of highly sensitized patients with excellent long-term graft survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Heidt, Sebastiaan; Haasnoot, Geert W; Claas, Frans H J

2018-05-24

Highly sensitized patients awaiting a renal transplant have a low chance of receiving an organ offer. Defining acceptable antigens and using this information for allocation purposes can vastly enhance transplantation of this subgroup of patients, which is the essence of the Eurotransplant Acceptable Mismatch program. Acceptable antigens can be determined by extensive laboratory testing, as well as on basis of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) epitope analyses. Within the Acceptable Mismatch program, there is no effect of HLA mismatches on long-term graft survival. Furthermore, patients transplanted through the Acceptable Mismatch program have similar long-term graft survival to nonsensitized patients transplanted through regular allocation. Although HLA epitope analysis is already being used for defining acceptable HLA antigens for highly sensitized patients in the Acceptable Mismatch program, increasing knowledge on HLA antibody - epitope interactions will pave the way toward the definition of acceptable epitopes for highly sensitized patients in the future. Allocation based on acceptable antigens can facilitate transplantation of highly sensitized patients with excellent long-term graft survival.

Analyzing age-specific genetic effects on human extreme age survival in cohort-based longitudinal studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tan, Qihua; Jacobsen, Rune; Sørensen, Mette

2013-01-01

The analysis of age-specific genetic effects on human survival over extreme ages is confronted with a deceleration pattern in mortality that deviates from traditional survival models and sparse genetic data available. As human late life is a distinct phase of life history, exploring the genetic...... effects on extreme age survival can be of special interest to evolutionary biology and health science. We introduce a non-parametric survival analysis approach that combines population survival information with individual genotype data in assessing the genetic effects in cohort-based longitudinal studies...

Disparities in pediatric leukemia early survival in Argentina: a population-based study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gilda Garibotti

2014-10-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To identify disparities-using recursive partitioning (RP-in early survival for children with leukemias treated in Argentina, and to depict the main characteristics of the most vulnerable groups. METHODS: This secondary data analysis evaluated 12-month survival (12-ms in 3 987 children diagnosed between 2000 and 2008 with lymphoid leukemia (LL and myeloid leukemia (ML and registered in Argentina's population-based oncopediatric registry. Prognostic groups based on age at diagnosis, gender, socioeconomic index of the province of residence, and migration to a different province to receive health care were identified using the RP method. RESULTS: Overall 12-ms for LL and ML cases was 83.7% and 59.9% respectively. RP detected major gaps in 12-ms. Among 1-10-year-old LL patients from poorer provinces, 12-ms for those who did and did not migrate was 87.0% and 78.2% respectively. Survival of ML patients < 2 years old from provinces with a low/medium socioeconomic index was 38.9% compared to 62.1% for those in the same age group from richer provinces. For 2-14-year-old ML patients living in poor provinces, patient migration was associated with a 30% increase in 12-ms. CONCLUSIONS: Major disparities in leukemia survival among Argentine children were found. Patient migration and socioeconomic index of residence province were associated with survival. The RP method was instrumental in identifying and characterizing vulnerable groups.

Chance the life of games & the game of life

CERN Document Server

Marques de Sá, Joaquim P

2008-01-01

This is a unique and charming book on how probability affects our everyday lives. It guides the reader in an almost chronological trip through the fascinating and amazing laws of chance, omnipresent in the natural world and in our daily lives.

Anti-urbanisation as development chance for rural areas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herslund, Lise Byskov; Fertner, Christian

2010-01-01

to combine a dwelling far from the city, life style considerations with a continued carrier. By statistical analysis based on age-related migration data for municipalities we studied the extent of anti-urbanisation in the case area. The data indicates an ongoing and amplifying trend of amenity...... into building up regional networks of similar businesses. Some businesses have not been able to adapt. The successful businesses combine few well established customers and networks in the city with a broader array of services matching a regional market, indicating a sustainable integration of those anti...... for a less stressful life, freedom and peace and quiet; a better quality of life. Anti-urbanisation might be a development chance for more remote areas in the metropolitan region. Some in-migrants start a micro-business in knowledge or creative services at their new home in the countryside in order...

Ortholog-based screening and identification of genes related to intracellular survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xiaowen; Wang, Jiawei; Bing, Guoxia; Bie, Pengfei; De, Yanyan; Lyu, Yanli; Wu, Qingmin

2018-04-20

Bioinformatics and comparative genomics analysis methods were used to predict unknown pathogen genes based on homology with identified or functionally clustered genes. In this study, the genes of common pathogens were analyzed to screen and identify genes associated with intracellular survival through sequence similarity, phylogenetic tree analysis and the λ-Red recombination system test method. The total 38,952 protein-coding genes of common pathogens were divided into 19,775 clusters. As demonstrated through a COG analysis, information storage and processing genes might play an important role intracellular survival. Only 19 clusters were present in facultative intracellular pathogens, and not all were present in extracellular pathogens. Construction of a phylogenetic tree selected 18 of these 19 clusters. Comparisons with the DEG database and previous research revealed that seven other clusters are considered essential gene clusters and that seven other clusters are associated with intracellular survival. Moreover, this study confirmed that clusters screened by orthologs with similar function could be replaced with an approved uvrY gene and its orthologs, and the results revealed that the usg gene is associated with intracellular survival. The study improves the current understanding of intracellular pathogens characteristics and allows further exploration of the intracellular survival-related gene modules in these pathogens. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The impact of chronic GVHD on survival of Patients with acute myeloid leukemia after non-T-cell depleted HLA-identical sibling peripheral blood stem cells transplantation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

farhad Shahsavar

2012-06-01

Conclusion: These data indicate that the occurrence of cGVHD is an important predictor of outcome of non-T-cell depleted HLA-identical sibling allogeneic PBSCT, in those AML patients who develope cGVHD have a high chance of survival.

Obesity affects spontaneous pregnancy chances in subfertile, ovulatory women

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.W. van der Steeg (Jan Willem); P. Steures (Pieternel); M.J.C. Eijkemans (René); J.D.F. Habbema (Dik); P.G. Hompes (Peter); J.M. Burggraaff (Jan); G.J.E. Oosterhuis (Jur); P.M.M. Bossuyt (Patrick); F. Veen (Fulco); B.W.J. Mol (Ben)

2008-01-01

textabstractBACKGROUND: Obesity is increasing rapidly among women all over the world. Obesity is a known risk factor for subfertility due to anovulation, but it is unknown whether obesity also affects spontaneous pregnancy chances in subfertile, ovulatory women. METHODS: We evaluated whether obesity

Obesity affects spontaneous pregnancy chances in subfertile, ovulatory women

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Habbema, J. Dik F.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; Burggraaff, Jan M.; Oosterhuis, G. Jur E.; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben W. J.

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Obesity is increasing rapidly among women all over the world. Obesity is a known risk factor for subfertility due to anovulation, but it is unknown whether obesity also affects spontaneous pregnancy chances in subfertile, ovulatory women. METHODS: We evaluated whether obesity affected

Diplomas Count 2013: Second Chances--Turning Dropouts into Graduates

Science.gov (United States)

Education Week, 2013

2013-01-01

The 2013 edition of "Diplomas Count," entitled "Second Chances: Turning Dropouts into Graduates," examines dropout recovery and innovative strategies for returning to the educational fold the 1 million students who leave school without a diploma each year. "Education Week's" journalists investigate interventions that…

Survival in pediatric medulloblastoma: a population-based observational study to improve prognostication.

Science.gov (United States)

Weil, Alexander G; Wang, Anthony C; Westwick, Harrison J; Ibrahim, George M; Ariani, Rojine T; Crevier, Louis; Perreault, Sebastien; Davidson, Tom; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Fallah, Aria

2017-03-01

Medulloblastoma is the most common form of brain malignancy of childhood. The mainstay of epidemiological data regarding childhood medulloblastoma is derived from case series, hence population-based studies are warranted to improve the accuracy of survival estimates. To utilize a big-data approach to update survival estimates in a contemporary cohort of children with medulloblastoma. We performed a population-based retrospective observational cohort study utilizing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database that captures all children, less than 20 years of age, between 1973 and 2012 in 18 geographical regions representing 28% of the US population. We included all participants with a presumed or histologically diagnosis of medulloblastoma. The main outcome of interest is survivors at 1, 5 and 10 years following diagnosis. A cohort of 1735 children with a median (interquartile range) age at diagnosis of 7 (4-11) years, with a diagnosis of medulloblastoma were identified. The incidence and prevalence of pediatric medulloblastoma has remained stable over the past 4 decades. There is a critical time point at 1990 when the overall survival has drastically improved. In the contemporary cohort (1990 onwards), the percentage of participants alive was 86, 70 and 63% at 1, 5 and 10 years, respectively. Multivariate Cox-Regression model demonstrated Radiation (HR 0.37; 95% CI 0.30-0.46, p < 0.001) and Surgery (HR 0.42; 95% CI 0.30-0.58, p < 0.001) independently predict survival. The probability of mortality from a neurological cause is <5% in patients who are alive 8 years following diagnosis. The SEER cohort analysis demonstrates significant improvements in pediatric medulloblastoma survival. In contrast to previous reports, the majority of patients survive in the modern era, and those alive 8 years following initial diagnosis are likely a long-term survivor. The importance of minimizing treatment-related toxicity is increasingly apparent given

Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rogier J D Potter van Loon

Full Text Available A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom deciles perform better (worse and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play.

Population-based cancer survival in the United States: Data, quality control, and statistical methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Allemani, Claudia; Harewood, Rhea; Johnson, Christopher J; Carreira, Helena; Spika, Devon; Bonaventure, Audrey; Ward, Kevin; Weir, Hannah K; Coleman, Michel P

2017-12-15

Robust comparisons of population-based cancer survival estimates require tight adherence to the study protocol, standardized quality control, appropriate life tables of background mortality, and centralized analysis. The CONCORD program established worldwide surveillance of population-based cancer survival in 2015, analyzing individual data on 26 million patients (including 10 million US patients) diagnosed between 1995 and 2009 with 1 of 10 common malignancies. In this Cancer supplement, we analyzed data from 37 state cancer registries that participated in the second cycle of the CONCORD program (CONCORD-2), covering approximately 80% of the US population. Data quality checks were performed in 3 consecutive phases: protocol adherence, exclusions, and editorial checks. One-, 3-, and 5-year age-standardized net survival was estimated using the Pohar Perme estimator and state- and race-specific life tables of all-cause mortality for each year. The cohort approach was adopted for patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2003, and the complete approach for patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2009. Articles in this supplement report population coverage, data quality indicators, and age-standardized 5-year net survival by state, race, and stage at diagnosis. Examples of tables, bar charts, and funnel plots are provided in this article. Population-based cancer survival is a key measure of the overall effectiveness of services in providing equitable health care. The high quality of US cancer registry data, 80% population coverage, and use of an unbiased net survival estimator ensure that the survival trends reported in this supplement are robustly comparable by race and state. The results can be used by policymakers to identify and address inequities in cancer survival in each state and for the United States nationally. Cancer 2017;123:4982-93. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article is a U

[Morbidity and mortality in newborns at the limit of viability in Spain: a population-based study].

Science.gov (United States)

García-Muñoz Rodrigo, F; García-Alix Pérez, A; García Hernández, J A; Figueras Aloy, J

2014-06-01

Perinatal care in extremely immature newborns is a clinical and ethical problem of great importance for professionals and families, and requires that the available information on the chances of child survival is of the highest quality. The aim of this study was to determine the specific rates of survival at hospital discharge, and survival without major morbidity in newborns with a gestation age (GA) ≤ 26 weeks in Spain. We included live newborns ≤ 26 weeks admitted to the collaborating centers of the SEN1500 network (2004-2010). Out born patients, infants who died in delivery room, and those with congenital anomalies incompatible with life were excluded. A total of 3,236 patients were included. GA specific survival was 12.5, 13.1, 36.9, 55.7, and 71.9% at 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26 weeks of GA, respectively. Survival without severe intracranial hemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, and/or retinopathy of prematurity was 1.5, 9.5, 19.0, and 29.9% at 23, 24, 25 and 26 weeks GA, respectively. Survival without major morbidity in infants less than 23 weeks GA is exceptional, and scarce in newborns with 23 and 24 weeks GA. Infants ≥ 25 weeks GA have reasonable chances of survival and, in the absence of major malformations or other relevant complications, should be offered active resuscitation and intensive care. The continuous updating of the results of individual centers is of utmost importance, as well as their comparison with the reference population-based results. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

[The survival prediction model of advanced gallbladder cancer based on Bayesian network: a multi-institutional study].

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Z H; Geng, Z M; Chen, C; Si, S B; Cai, Z Q; Song, T Q; Gong, P; Jiang, L; Qiu, Y H; He, Y; Zhai, W L; Li, S P; Zhang, Y C; Yang, Y

2018-05-01

Objective: To investigate the clinical value of Bayesian network in predicting survival of patients with advanced gallbladder cancer(GBC)who underwent curative intent surgery. Methods: The clinical data of patients with advanced GBC who underwent curative intent surgery in 9 institutions from January 2010 to December 2015 were analyzed retrospectively.A median survival time model based on a tree augmented naïve Bayes algorithm was established by Bayesia Lab software.The survival time, number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), T stage, pathological grade, margin, jaundice, liver invasion, age, sex and tumor morphology were included in this model.Confusion matrix, the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.A priori statistical analysis of these 10 variables and a posterior analysis(survival time as the target variable, the remaining factors as the attribute variables)was performed.The importance rankings of each variable was calculated with the polymorphic Birnbaum importance calculation based on the posterior analysis results.The survival probability forecast table was constructed based on the top 4 prognosis factors. The survival curve was drawn by the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences in survival curves were compared using the Log-rank test. Results: A total of 316 patients were enrolled, including 109 males and 207 females.The ratio of male to female was 1.0∶1.9, the age was (62.0±10.8)years.There was 298 cases(94.3%) R0 resection and 18 cases(5.7%) R1 resection.T staging: 287 cases(90.8%) T3 and 29 cases(9.2%) T4.The median survival time(MST) was 23.77 months, and the 1, 3, 5-year survival rates were 67.4%, 40.8%, 32.0%, respectively.For the Bayesian model, the number of correctly predicted cases was 121(≤23.77 months) and 115(>23.77 months) respectively, leading to a 74.86% accuracy of this model.The prior probability of survival time was 0.503 2(≤23.77 months) and 0.496 8

Behavioral profiles of the captive juvenile whooping crane (Grus americana) as an indicator of reintroduction behavior and survival

Science.gov (United States)

Kreger, M.D.

2003-01-01

Predation by bobcats (Lynx rufus) has been the greatest cause of mortality of whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the reintroduced population in Florida. This study investigated whether the behavior of juvenile cranes during captive rearing and shortly after release can be used to predict their chances of survival once released in the wild. This study also examined differences in behavior based on rearing treatments and whether differences observed during rearing continued at the release site. Experimental rearing treatments were parent reared (PR), hand reared (RR), and hand reared with exercise (HRE). Two annual cycles of cranes were observed from hatch to 20 weeks of age in captivity (n=56 birds). Post-release bebavioral data were collected at the release site for a minimum of two weeks (n=34 birds), with mortality data collected up to one year post release (n=38 birds). Behavioral time budgets were compared using repeated measures ANOVA. Logistic regression was used to build a model to identify behaviors that were associated with first-year survival. During rearing, PR birds were the most vigilant. There were no behavioral differences between HR and HRE birds. Generally, rearing treatments had few long-term effects on the post-release behavior of the birds. The main behavioral differences during rearing and after release were the frequency of bouts and the percentage of time spent performing different behaviors. This may be attributed to foraging strategies and adaptation from captive conditions to the wild. Survival was not related to rearing treatment. Fifty-five percent of the birds survived the first year post-release based upon data pooled over two years. During rearing, the frequency of foraging bouts was positively correlated to survival. Survival was negatively correlated to the frequency of walking bouts during rearing, and release weight of the birds. These correlations accounted for 32 percent of the variability in survival. At the release site, 20

Chance-constrained optimization of demand response to price signals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dorini, Gianluca Fabio; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

2013-01-01

within a recursive least squares (RLS) framework using data measurable at the grid level, in an adaptive fashion. Optimal price signals are generated by embedding the FIR models within a chance-constrained optimization framework. The objective is to keep the price signal as unchanged as possible from...

Chance-constrained programming models for capital budgeting with NPV as fuzzy parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Xiaoxia

2007-01-01

In an uncertain economic environment, experts' knowledge about outlays and cash inflows of available projects consists of much vagueness instead of randomness. Investment outlays and annual net cash flows of a project are usually predicted by using experts' knowledge. Fuzzy variables can overcome the difficulties in predicting these parameters. In this paper, capital budgeting problem with fuzzy investment outlays and fuzzy annual net cash flows is studied based on credibility measure. Net present value (NPV) method is employed, and two fuzzy chance-constrained programming models for capital budgeting problem are provided. A fuzzy simulation-based genetic algorithm is provided for solving the proposed model problems. Two numerical examples are also presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Survival of Direct Posterior Composites With and Without a Bulk Fill Base.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuirk, C; Hussain, F; Millar, B J

2017-09-01

Direct composite restorations are increasingly popular and a flowable bulk-fill base material (SDR, Dentsply) claims to minimise stress through a more flexible polymerisation process. This retrospective audit of restorations placed in general practice compares SDR based restorations with conventional composite restorations. Restorations were all placed by one operator using a similar clinical technique and were audited as Group G, placed with a conventional layering composite (G-aenial, GC) and Group S which had a bulk-fill base of SDR (Dentsply) and then were covered with G-aenial (GC). Data regarding survival, post-operative sensitivity and mode of failure were recorded and analysed. In total 54 Group S restorations and 71 Group G restorations were followed for a minimum of 24 months. Group S had a 92.6% survival and Group G 93%. Group S was more prone to failure by tooth fracture (p=0.033). In both groups failure was more likely in larger cavities, in both those with an increased number of surfaces (p⟨0.001) and cuspal coverage (p=0.004). There appears to be similar survival of the two techniques in the short-term although there were significantly more tooth fractures in teeth restored with SDR. Copyright© 2017 Dennis Barber Ltd.

Cell-based neurotrophin treatment supports long-term auditory neuron survival in the deaf guinea pig.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Lisa N; Zanin, Mark P; Shepherd, Robert K

2015-01-28

The cochlear implant provides auditory cues to profoundly deaf patients by electrically stimulating the primary auditory neurons (ANs) of the cochlea. However, ANs degenerate in deafness; the preservation of a robust AN target population, in combination with advances in cochlear implant technology, may provide improved hearing outcomes for cochlear implant patients. The exogenous delivery of neurotrophins such as brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and neurotrophin-3 is well known to support AN survival in deafness, and cell-based therapies provide a potential clinically viable option for delivering neurotrophins into the deaf cochlea. This study utilized cells that were genetically modified to express BDNF and encapsulated in alginate microspheres, and investigated AN survival in the deaf guinea pig following (a) cell-based neurotrophin treatment in conjunction with chronic electrical stimulation from a cochlear implant, and (b) long-term cell-based neurotrophin delivery. In comparison to deafened controls, there was significantly greater AN survival following the cell-based neurotrophin treatment, and there were ongoing survival effects for at least six months. In addition, functional benefits were observed following cell-based neurotrophin treatment and chronic electrical stimulation, with a statistically significant decrease in electrically evoked auditory brainstem response thresholds observed during the experimental period. This study demonstrates that cell-based therapies, in conjunction with a cochlear implant, shows potential as a clinically transferable means of providing neurotrophin treatment to support AN survival in deafness. This technology also has the potential to deliver other therapeutic agents, and to be used in conjunction with other biomedical devices for the treatment of a variety of neurodegenerative conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Growth and Survival of Aquacultured Juvenile Florida Pompano fed Fishmeal and Plant-Based Diets

Science.gov (United States)

Budden, D.

2016-02-01

We investigated the growth and survival of aquacultured juvenile Florida Pompano (Trachinotus carolinus) fed two different diets. Pompano (initial weight 7.7 g /fish) were randomly assigned to one of two dietary treatments: Zeigler pellets (fishmeal; 35% protein, 5% lipid) and a plant-based Repashy Soilent Green algae gel (plant-based; 35% protein, 6% lipid). Fish were fed rations of 5% body weight twice daily for eight weeks. Despite nearly equivalent proximate compositions for the two feeds, survival rates were significantly affected by diet. All fish fed the Zeigler diet survived; however, mortality was observed in 92% of the fish fed the Repashy diet. At the end of the trial, mean weight gain of surviving pompano was highest in fish fed Zeigler pellets. Mean specific growth rate (SGR) for fish fed the Zeigler diet (0.24% per day) was higher than for fish fed Repashy (-2.44%).While plant-based feeds have been successfully used with the species, these results suggest that the plant-based Repashy diet is not suitable for survival or growth of aquacultured Florida pompano.

Radiation Therapy Administration and Survival in Stage I/II Extranodal Marginal Zone B-Cell Lymphoma of Mucosa-Associated Lymphoid Tissue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olszewski, Adam J., E-mail: adam_olszewski@brown.edu; Desai, Amrita

2014-03-01

Purpose: To determine the factors associated with the use of radiation therapy and associated survival outcomes in early-stage marginal zone lymphoma of the mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT). Methods and Materials: We extracted data on adult patients with stage I/II MALT lymphoma diagnoses between 1998 and 2010 recorded in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We studied factors associated with radiation therapy administration in a logistic regression model and described the cumulative incidence of lymphoma-related death (LRD) according to receipt of the treatment. The association of radiation therapy with survival was explored in multivariate models with adjustment for immortal time bias. Results: Of the 7774 identified patients, 36% received radiation therapy as part of the initial course of treatment. Older patients; black or Hispanic men; white, Hispanic, and black women; and socioeconomically disadvantaged and underinsured patients had a significantly lower chance of receiving radiation therapy. Radiation therapy administration was associated with a lower chance of LRD in most sites. In cutaneous, ocular, and salivary MALT lymphomas, the 5-year estimate of LRD after radiation therapy was 0%. The association of radiation therapy with overall survival in different lymphoma sites was heterogeneous, and statistically significant in cutaneous (hazard ratio 0.45, P=.009) and ocular (hazard ratio 0.47, P<.0001) locations after multivariate adjustment. Conclusions: Demographic factors are associated with the use of radiation therapy in MALT lymphoma. Clinicians should be sensitive to those disparities because the administration of radiation therapy may be associated with improved survival, particularly in cutaneous and ocular lymphomas.

Radiation Therapy Administration and Survival in Stage I/II Extranodal Marginal Zone B-Cell Lymphoma of Mucosa-Associated Lymphoid Tissue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olszewski, Adam J.; Desai, Amrita

2014-01-01

Purpose: To determine the factors associated with the use of radiation therapy and associated survival outcomes in early-stage marginal zone lymphoma of the mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT). Methods and Materials: We extracted data on adult patients with stage I/II MALT lymphoma diagnoses between 1998 and 2010 recorded in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We studied factors associated with radiation therapy administration in a logistic regression model and described the cumulative incidence of lymphoma-related death (LRD) according to receipt of the treatment. The association of radiation therapy with survival was explored in multivariate models with adjustment for immortal time bias. Results: Of the 7774 identified patients, 36% received radiation therapy as part of the initial course of treatment. Older patients; black or Hispanic men; white, Hispanic, and black women; and socioeconomically disadvantaged and underinsured patients had a significantly lower chance of receiving radiation therapy. Radiation therapy administration was associated with a lower chance of LRD in most sites. In cutaneous, ocular, and salivary MALT lymphomas, the 5-year estimate of LRD after radiation therapy was 0%. The association of radiation therapy with overall survival in different lymphoma sites was heterogeneous, and statistically significant in cutaneous (hazard ratio 0.45, P=.009) and ocular (hazard ratio 0.47, P<.0001) locations after multivariate adjustment. Conclusions: Demographic factors are associated with the use of radiation therapy in MALT lymphoma. Clinicians should be sensitive to those disparities because the administration of radiation therapy may be associated with improved survival, particularly in cutaneous and ocular lymphomas

Value-based contracting innovated Medicare advantage healthcare delivery and improved survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Mandal, Aloke K; Tagomori, Gene K; Felix, Randell V; Howell, Scott C

2017-02-01

In Medicare Advantage (MA) with its CMS Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC) payment model, CMS reimburses private plans (Medicare Advantage Organizations [MAOs]) with prospective, monthly, health-based or risk-adjusted, capitated payments. The effect of this payment methodology on healthcare delivery remains debatable. How value-based contracting generates cost efficiencies and improves clinical outcomes in MA is studied. A difference in contracting arrangements between an MAO and 2 provider groups facilitated an intervention-control, preintervention-postintervention, difference-in-differences approach among statistically similar, elderly, community-dwelling MA enrollees within one metropolitan statistical area. Starting in 2009, for intervention-group MA enrollees, the MAO and a provider group agreed to full-risk capitation combined with a revenue gainshare. The gainshare was based on increases in the Risk Adjustment Factor (RAF), which modified the CMS-HCC payments. For the control group, the MAO continued to reimburse another provider group through fee-for-service. RAF, utilization, and survival were followed until December 31, 2012. The intervention group's mean RAF increased significantly (P based visits (P based care for these MA enrollees with multiple comorbidities, a 6% survival benefit with a 32.8% lower hazard of death (P Value-based contracting can drive utilization patterns and improve clinical outcomes among chronically ill, elderly MA members.

77 FR 35743 - Requested Administrative Waiver of the Coastwise Trade Laws: Vessel SECOND CHANCE; Invitation for...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-14

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Maritime Administration [Docket No. MARAD 2012 0067] Requested Administrative Waiver of the Coastwise Trade Laws: Vessel SECOND CHANCE; Invitation for Public Comments AGENCY... SECOND CHANCE is: Intended Commercial Use of Vessel: ``Small group charters.'' Geographic Region...

Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

2015-07-01

Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Second Chances Academy: Alternative School or Pathway to Prison?

Science.gov (United States)

Horsford, Sonya Douglass; Powell, Keyona L.

2016-01-01

This case considers the leadership challenge facing district officials in a mid-sized urban-suburban school district receiving negative media coverage for the overrepresentation of poor, Black, and Latino males in its alternative high school, Second Chances Academy. Many of its students also qualify for special education and English learner…

Provision of Second-Chance Education: The Hong Kong Experience

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, David

2010-01-01

Purpose: Many students do not benefit from mainstream education and are forced to leave it. Governments and non-government organisations concerned with the social injustice and problems that such rejection could cause offer these students second-chance education programmes. This paper aims to examine the effectiveness of such opportunities, using…

Fissure sealants in caries prevention:a practice-based study using survival analysis

OpenAIRE

Leskinen, K. (Kaja)

2010-01-01

Abstract The purpose of this study was to analyse the effectiveness and cost of fissure sealant treatment in preventing dental caries in children in a practice-based research network using survival analysis. The survival times of first permanent molars in children were analysed in three countries: in Finland (age cohorts 1970–1972 and 1980–1982), in Sweden (1980–1982) and in Greece (1980–1982), and additionally at two municipal health centres in Finland (age cohorts 1988–1990 in Kemi...

Management of Adolescent Low-Risk Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma: Which Chemotherapy Backbone Gives the Best Chance of Omitting Radiotherapy Safely.

Science.gov (United States)

Algiraigri, Ali H; Essa, Mohammed F

2016-03-01

Even though more than 90% of adolescents with low-risk classical Hodgkin lymphoma (LRcHL) will be cured with first-line therapy, many will suffer serious late toxic effects from radiotherapy (RT). The goals for care have shifted toward minimizing late toxic effects without compromising the outstanding cure rates by adapting a risk and response-based therapy. Recent published and ongoing randomized clinical trials, using functional imaging, may allow for better identification of those patients for whom RT may be safely omitted while maintaining excellent cure rates. To evaluate the best chemotherapy regimens with a reasonable toxicity profile and that are expected to have a high chance of omitting RT based on a response-directed therapy while maintaining high cure rates, a mini review was conducted of the recent clinical trials in pediatric and adult LRcHL. The UK RAPID trial chemotherapy backbone (3 × ABVD) followed by a response-based positron emission tomography scan offers up to a 75% chance of safely omitting RT without compromising the cure rate, which remained well above 90%.

Community-Based Multidisciplinary Computed Tomography Screening Program Improves Lung Cancer Survival.

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Miller, Daniel L; Mayfield, William R; Luu, Theresa D; Helms, Gerald A; Muster, Alan R; Beckler, Vickie J; Cann, Aaron

2016-05-01

Lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer deaths in the United States. Overall survival is less than 20%, with the majority of patients presenting with advanced disease. The National Lung Screening Trial, performed mainly in academic medical centers, showed that cancer mortality can be reduced with computed tomography (CT) screening compared with chest radiography in high-risk patients. To determine whether this survival advantage can be duplicated in a community-based multidisciplinary thoracic oncology program, we initiated a CT scan screening program for lung cancer within an established health care system. In 2008, we launched a lung cancer CT screening program within the WellStar Health System (WHS) consisting of five hospitals, three health parks, 140 outpatient medical offices, and 12 imaging centers that provide care in a five-county area of approximately 1.4 million people in Metro-Atlanta. Screening criteria incorporated were the International Early Lung Cancer Action Program (2008 to 2010) and National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines (2011 to 2013) for moderate- and high-risk patients. A total of 1,267 persons underwent CT lung cancer screening in WHS from 2008 through 2013; 53% were men, 87% were 50 years of age or older, and 83% were current or former smokers. Noncalcified indeterminate pulmonary nodules were found in 518 patients (41%). Thirty-six patients (2.8%) underwent a diagnostic procedure for positive findings on their CT scan; 30 proved to have cancer, 28 (2.2%) primary lung cancer and 2 metastatic cancer, and 6 had benign disease. Fourteen patients (50%) had their lung cancer discovered on their initial CT scan, 11 on subsequent scans associated with indeterminate pulmonary nodules growth and 3 patients who had a new indeterminate pulmonary nodules. Only 15 (54%) of these 28 patients would have qualified as a National Lung Screening Trial high-risk patient; 75% had stage I or II disease. Overall 5-year survival was 64% and 5-year

Pancreas retransplantation: a second chance for diabetic patients?

Science.gov (United States)

Buron, Fanny; Thaunat, Olivier; Demuylder-Mischler, Sandrine; Badet, Lionel; Brunet, Maria; Ber, Charles-Eric; Thivolet, Charles; Martin, Xavier; Berney, Thierry; Morelon, Emmanuel

2013-01-27

If pancreas transplantation is a validated alternative for type 1 diabetic patients with end-stage renal disease, the management of patients who have lost their primary graft is poorly defined. This study aims at evaluating pancreas retransplantation outcome. Between 1976 and 2008, 569 pancreas transplantations were performed in Lyon and Geneva, including 37 second transplantations. Second graft survival was compared with primary graft survival of the same patients and the whole population. Predictive factors of second graft survival were sought. Patient survival and impact on kidney graft function and survival were evaluated. Second pancreas survival of the 17 patients transplanted from 1995 was close to primary graft survival of the whole population (71% vs. 79% at 1 year and 59% vs. 69% at 5 years; P=0.5075) and significantly better than their first pancreas survival (71% vs. 29% at 1 year and 59% vs. 7% at 5 years; P=0.0008) regardless of the cause of first pancreas loss. The same results were observed with all 37 retransplantations. Survival of second simultaneous pancreas and kidney transplantations was better than survival of second pancreas after kidney. Patient survival was excellent (89% at 5 years). Pancreas retransplantation had no impact on kidney graft function and survival (100% at 5 years). Pancreas retransplantation is a safe procedure with acceptable graft survival that should be proposed to diabetic patients who have lost their primary graft.

Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality, Schools, and Children's Life Chances

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Duncan, Greg J., Ed.; Murnane, Richard, Ed.

2011-01-01

As the incomes of affluent and poor families have diverged over the past three decades, so too has the educational performance of their children. But how exactly do the forces of rising inequality affect the educational attainment and life chances of low-income children? In "Whither Opportunity?" a distinguished team of economists,…

Corruption and re-election chances of incumbent parties in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The effect of information about corruption depends on whether the incumbent parties field different candidates from those in previous elections. In Africa, South and Central America, however, the effect also depends on whether the elections are free or fair. A key finding is that press freedom reduces the re-election chances ...

For-Profit Mid-Career Programmes as a Second Chance

Science.gov (United States)

Ayalon, Hanna; Menahem, Gila

2010-01-01

Israeli universities have recently established for-profit (FP) mid-career programmes, intended for holders of junior managerial positions who wish to acquire a Master's degree and improve their status and salary. We analyse the programmes as a second-chance structure, which provides working people with the opportunity to win a Master's degree from…

150 minutes of vigorous physical activity per week predicts survival and successful ageing: a population-based 11-year longitudinal study of 12 201 older Australian men.

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Osvaldo P; Khan, Karim M; Hankey, Graeme J; Yeap, Bu B; Golledge, Jonathan; Flicker, Leon

2014-02-01

Physical activity has been associated with improved survival, but it is unclear whether this increase in longevity is accompanied by preserved mental and physical functioning, also known as healthy ageing. We designed this study to determine whether physical activity is associated with healthy ageing in later life. We recruited a community-representative sample of 12 201 men aged 65-83 years and followed them for 10-13 years. We assessed physical activity at the beginning and the end of the follow-up period. Participants who reported 150 min or more of vigorous physical activity per week were considered physically active. We monitored survival during the follow-up period and, at study exit, assessed the mood, cognition and functional status of survivors. Healthy ageing was defined as being alive at the end of follow-up and having a Patient Health Questionnaire score 27, and no major difficulty in any instrumental or basic activity of daily living. Cox regression and general linear models were used to estimate HR of death and risk ratio (RR) of healthy ageing. Analyses were adjusted for age, education, marital status, smoking, body mass index and history of hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease and stroke. Two thousand and fifty-eight (16.9%) participants were physically active at study entry. Active men had lower HR of death over 10-13 years than physically inactive men (HR=0.74, 95% CI=0.68 to 0.81). Among survivors, completion of the follow-up assessment was higher in the physically active than inactive group (risk ratio, RR=1.18, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.30). Physically active men had greater chance of fulfilling criteria for healthy ageing than inactive men (RR=1.35, 95% CI=1.19 to 1.53). Men who were physically active at the baseline and follow-up assessments had the highest chance of healthy ageing compared with inactive men (RR=1.59, 95% CI=1.36 to 1.86). Sustained physical activity is associated with improved survival and healthy ageing in older men

Against all odds: Tales of survival and growth of the Foundational Approaches in Science Teaching (FAST) project

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, Karen Kina

) teaching and learning strategies that model a community of practicing scientists. This study also identified the main elements of professional development strategies essential for an innovative project's survival and growth: linking curriculum development to required pre-implementation inservice training, engaging project personnel in both of these phases recruiting, training a cadre of experienced FAST teachers as inservice trainers, and providing follow-up professional development seminars. In conclusion, the FAST project survived mainly because the longevity of its leaders gave stability and continuity to the project. Against many odds such as limited financial resources and a small number of staff positions relative to the project's scope, the leaders managed with whatever resources were available to link theory-based curriculum development with professional development and, thereby, increase the project's chances for survival and growth.

Can chance cause cancer? A causal consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

Stensrud, Mats Julius; Strohmaier, Susanne; Valberg, Morten; Aalen, Odd Olai

2017-04-01

The role of randomness, environment and genetics in cancer development is debated. We approach the discussion by using the potential outcomes framework for causal inference. By briefly considering the underlying assumptions, we suggest that the antagonising views arise due to estimation of substantially different causal effects. These effects may be hard to interpret, and the results cannot be immediately compared. Indeed, it is not clear whether it is possible to define a causal effect of chance at all. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Morphological Diversity and the Roles of Contingency, Chance and Determinism in African Cichlid Radiations

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Kyle A.; Snoeks, Jos; Seehausen, Ole

2009-01-01

Background Deterministic evolution, phylogenetic contingency and evolutionary chance each can influence patterns of morphological diversification during adaptive radiation. In comparative studies of replicate radiations, convergence in a common morphospace implicates determinism, whereas non-convergence suggests the importance of contingency or chance. Methodology/Principal Findings The endemic cichlid fish assemblages of the three African great lakes have evolved similar sets of ecomorphs but show evidence of non-convergence when compared in a common morphospace, suggesting the importance of contingency and/or chance. We then analyzed the morphological diversity of each assemblage independently and compared their axes of diversification in the unconstrained global morphospace. We find that despite differences in phylogenetic composition, invasion history, and ecological setting, the three assemblages are diversifying along parallel axes through morphospace and have nearly identical variance-covariance structures among morphological elements. Conclusions/Significance By demonstrating that replicate adaptive radiations are diverging along parallel axes, we have shown that non-convergence in the common morphospace is associated with convergence in the global morphospace. Applying these complimentary analyses to future comparative studies will improve our understanding of the relationship between morphological convergence and non-convergence, and the roles of contingency, chance and determinism in driving morphological diversification. PMID:19270732

A Second Chance at Education for Early School Leavers

Science.gov (United States)

Polidano, Cain; Tabasso, Domenico; Tseng, Yi-Ping

2015-01-01

The objective of this paper is to better understand the factors that affect the chances of re-engaging early school leavers in education, with a particular focus on the importance of time out from school (duration dependence) and school-related factors. Using data from three cohorts of the Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth and duration…

Learning Strategies of Students Attending a "Second Chance" School

Science.gov (United States)

Cartier, Sylvie C.; Langevin, Louise; Robert, Josianne

2011-01-01

This study was conducted in Quebec with 608 students (aged 16-19) in four "second chance" schools of the greater Montreal area. The objectives were twofold: (a) to identify the strategies of these students in the context of five learning activities; and (b) to compare the strategies of students who had withdrawn from school after their…

Mourning as individual chance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vuković Marko

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Motives for preparing this paper, are personal and professional, there is mutual interference. Ending of the paper is considered as synchronicity, in author s personal mourning. A mourning, as hard experience, but also as a chance for development, integration of somebody s own capacities, embodied in relationship with another, is close connected with individuation, that is represented as spontaneous, unconcious process of self development of personality with the aim of searching unity and wholesness of personality, following number of compensations toward balance and wholesness as final aim, but also is considered as ideal. In close conection with individuation is transcedental function that integrates conscious and unconcsious attitude, overcomes struggle of consiousness and unconsciousness. In paper, there are examples of two myths, myth about Demetra and Persefona, and Orpheus and Euridica, that show possible individuation directions throughout mourning process. Individation is, there, put in the context of death and Under World. Beside individual, there is consideration of colective mourning, although that approach is restricted for some reasons. There is question of capacity of society for mourning.

What Treatments Can Reduce the Chances of Preterm Labor and Birth?

Science.gov (United States)

... treatments can reduce the chances of preterm labor & birth? If a pregnant woman is showing signs of ... to stop labor (tocolytics) and medications administered before birth to improve outcomes for the infant if born ...

Corals like it waxed: paraffin-based antifouling technology enhances coral spat survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Tebben

Full Text Available The early post-settlement stage is the most sensitive during the life history of reef building corals. However, few studies have examined the factors that influence coral mortality during this period. Here, the impact of fouling on the survival of newly settled coral spat of Acropora millepora was investigated by manipulating the extent of fouling cover on settlement tiles using non-toxic, wax antifouling coatings. Survival of spat on coated tiles was double that on control tiles. Moreover, there was a significant negative correlation between percentage cover of fouling and spat survival across all tiles types, suggesting that fouling in direct proximity to settled corals has detrimental effects on early post-settlement survival. While previous studies have shown that increased fouling negatively affects coral larval settlement and health of juvenile and adult corals, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to show a direct relationship between fouling and early post-settlement survival for a broadcast spawning scleractinian coral. The negative effects of fouling on this sensitive life history stage may become more pronounced in the future as coastal eutrophication increases. Our results further suggest that targeted seeding of coral spat on artificial surfaces in combination with fouling control could prove useful to improve the efficiency of sexual reproduction-based coral propagation for reef rehabilitation.

Chance a guide to gambling, love, the stock market and just about everything else

CERN Document Server

Aczel, Amir D

2005-01-01

In Chance, celebrated mathematician Amir D. Aczel turns his sights on probability theory—the branch of mathematics that measures the likelihood of a random event. He explains probability in clear, layman's terms, and shows its practical applications. What is commonly called luck has mathematical roots and in Chance, you'll learn to increase your odds of success in everything from true love to the stock market. For thousands of years, the twin forces of chance and mischance have beguiled humanity like none other. Why does fortune smile on some people, and smirk on others? What is luck, and why does it so often visit the undeserving? How can we predict the random events happening around us? Even better, how can we manipulate them? In this delightful and lucid voyage through the realm of the random, Dr. Aczel once again makes higher mathematics intelligible to us.

Stock management in hospital pharmacy using chance-constrained model predictive control.

Science.gov (United States)

Jurado, I; Maestre, J M; Velarde, P; Ocampo-Martinez, C; Fernández, I; Tejera, B Isla; Prado, J R Del

2016-05-01

One of the most important problems in the pharmacy department of a hospital is stock management. The clinical need for drugs must be satisfied with limited work labor while minimizing the use of economic resources. The complexity of the problem resides in the random nature of the drug demand and the multiple constraints that must be taken into account in every decision. In this article, chance-constrained model predictive control is proposed to deal with this problem. The flexibility of model predictive control allows taking into account explicitly the different objectives and constraints involved in the problem while the use of chance constraints provides a trade-off between conservativeness and efficiency. The solution proposed is assessed to study its implementation in two Spanish hospitals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

Science.gov (United States)

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

2017-07-28

Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justine B. Nasejje

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Random survival forest (RSF models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. Methods In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points. The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points. Results The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Conclusion Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

Implementing a novel movement-based approach to inferring parturition and neonate caribou calf survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maegwin Bonar

Full Text Available In ungulates, parturition is correlated with a reduction in movement rate. With advances in movement-based technologies comes an opportunity to develop new techniques to assess reproduction in wild ungulates that are less invasive and reduce biases. DeMars et al. (2013, Ecology and Evolution 3:4149-4160 proposed two promising new methods (individual- and population-based; the DeMars model that use GPS inter-fix step length of adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou to infer parturition and neonate survival. Our objective was to apply the DeMars model to caribou populations that may violate model assumptions for retrospective analysis of parturition and calf survival. We extended the use of the DeMars model after assigning parturition and calf mortality status by examining herd-wide distributions of parturition date, calf mortality date, and survival. We used the DeMars model to estimate parturition and calf mortality events and compared them with the known parturition and calf mortality events from collared adult females (n = 19. We also used the DeMars model to estimate parturition and calf mortality events for collared female caribou with unknown parturition and calf mortality events (n = 43 and instead derived herd-wide estimates of calf survival as well as distributions of parturition and calf mortality dates and compared them to herd-wide estimates generated from calves fitted with VHF collars (n = 134. For our data, the individual-based method was effective at predicting calf mortality, but was not effective at predicting parturition. The population-based method was more effective at predicting parturition but was not effective at predicting calf mortality. At the herd-level, the predicted distributions of parturition date from both methods differed from each other and from the distribution derived from the parturition dates of VHF-collared calves (log-ranked test: χ2 = 40.5, df = 2, p < 0.01. The predicted distributions of calf

Chances of late surgery in relation to length of wait lists

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Levy Adrian R

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The proportion of patients who undergo surgery within a clinically safe time is an important performance indicator in health systems that use wait lists to manage access to care. However, little is known about chances of on-time surgery according to variations in existing demand. We sought to determine what proportion of patients have had late coronary bypass surgery after registration on wait lists of different size in a network of hospitals with uniform standards for timing of surgery. Methods Using records from a population-based registry, we studied wait-list times prospectively collected in a cohort of patients registered on wait lists for coronary artery bypass grafting procedures. We compared the number of weeks from registration to surgery against target access times established for three urgency groups. The chances of undergoing surgery within target time have been evaluated in relation to wait-list size at registration and the number of surgeries performed without registration on a wait list. Results In 1991–2001, two in three patients were at risk of late surgery when registered on wait lists for isolated coronary bypass procedures in British Columbia, Canada. Although urgent patients had never seen a wait list with clearance time exceeding one week, the odds of on-time surgery were reduced by 25%, odds ratio [OR] = 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65–0.87 for every additional operation performed without registration on a list. When the wait list at registration required a clearance time of over one month, semi-urgent patients had 51% lower odds of on-time surgery as compared to lists with clearance time less than one week, OR = 0.49 (95%CI 0.41–0.60, after adjustment for age, sex, comorbidity, calendar period, hospital and week on the list. In the non-urgent group, the odds were 69% lower, OR = 0.31 (95%CI 0.20–0.47. Every time an operation in the same hospital was performed without registration on a

Nonlinear Chance Constrained Problems: Optimality Conditions, Regularization and Solvers

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Adam, Lukáš; Branda, Martin

2016-01-01

Roč. 170, č. 2 (2016), s. 419-436 ISSN 0022-3239 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-00735S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Chance constrained programming * Optimality conditions * Regularization * Algorithms * Free MATLAB codes Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.289, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/MTR/adam-0460909.pdf

Behavioral health problems, ex-offender reentry policies, and the "Second Chance Act".

Science.gov (United States)

Pogorzelski, Wendy; Wolff, Nancy; Pan, Ko-Yu; Blitz, Cynthia L

2005-10-01

The federal "Second Chance Act of 2005" calls for expanding reentry services for people leaving prison, yet existing policies restrict access to needed services for those with criminal records. We examined the interaction between individual-level characteristics and policy-level restrictions related to criminal conviction, and the likely effects on access to resources upon reentry, using a sample of prisoners with Axis I mental disorders (n=3073). We identified multiple challenges related to convictions, including restricted access to housing, public assistance, and other resources. Invisible punishments embedded within existing policies were inconsistent with the call for second chances. Without modification of federal and state policies, the ability of reentry services to foster behavioral health and community reintegration is limited.

Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

2015-01-01

Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

2015-08-15

Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

Stereotypes of physical appearance and labor market chances

OpenAIRE

Arai, Mahmood; Gartell, Marie; Rödin, Magnus; Özcan, Gülay

2016-01-01

Using an experimental setup involving 436 case workers at the Swedish Public Employment Service (SPES) as subjects and the profile photographs and recorded voices of 75 jobseekers as treatments, we report results indicating that male case workers tend to favor jobseekers perceived as having a stereotypical Swedish appearance when they select candidates to be recommended for labor market programs (LMP). This bias represents a roughly 50-percent greater chance of being selected if you compare t...

Chordomas of the Skull Base, Mobile Spine, and Sacrum: An Epidemiologic Investigation of Presentation, Treatment, and Survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Zuckerman, Scott L; Bilsky, Mark H; Laufer, Ilya

2018-05-01

Chordomas are rare primary bone tumors that arise from the axial skeleton. Our objective was to analyze trends in radiation and surgery over time and determine location-based survival predictors for chordomas of the skull base, mobile spine, and sacrum. A retrospective cohort study of the SEER (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results) database from 1973 to 2013 was conducted. All patients had histologically confirmed chordomas. The principal outcome measure was overall survival (OS). The cohort included 1616 patients: skull base (664), mobile spine (444), and sacrum (508). Skull base tumors presented earliest in life (47.4 years) and sacral tumors presented latest (62.7 years). Rates of radiation remained stable for skull base and mobile spine tumors but declined for sacral tumors (P = 0.006). Rates of surgical resection remained stable for skull base and sacral tumors but declined for mobile spine tumors (P = 0.046). Skull base chordomas had the longest median survival (162 months) compared with mobile spine (94 months) and sacral tumors (87 months). Being married was independently associated with improved OS for skull base tumors (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.99; P = 0.044). Surgical resection was independently associated with improved OS for sacral chordomas (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.69; P mobile spine chordomas and radiation for sacral chordomas decreased over time. Patients with skull base tumors survived longer than did patients with mobile spine and sacral chordomas, and surgical resection was associated with improved survival in sacral chordomas only. Understanding the behavior of these tumors can help cranial and spinal surgeons improve treatment in this patient population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EqualChance: Addressing Intra-set Write Variation to Increase Lifetime of Non-volatile Caches

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mittal, Sparsh [ORNL; Vetter, Jeffrey S [ORNL

2014-01-01

To address the limitations of SRAM such as high-leakage and low-density, researchers have explored use of non-volatile memory (NVM) devices, such as ReRAM (resistive RAM) and STT-RAM (spin transfer torque RAM) for designing on-chip caches. A crucial limitation of NVMs, however, is that their write endurance is low and the large intra-set write variation introduced by existing cache management policies may further exacerbate this problem, thereby reducing the cache lifetime significantly. We present EqualChance, a technique to increase cache lifetime by reducing intra-set write variation. EqualChance works by periodically changing the physical cache-block location of a write-intensive data item within a set to achieve wear-leveling. Simulations using workloads from SPEC CPU2006 suite and HPC (high-performance computing) field show that EqualChance improves the cache lifetime by 4.29X. Also, its implementation overhead is small, and it incurs very small performance and energy loss.

Child survival and changing fertility patterns in Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Sathar, Z A

1992-01-01

Pakistan is a country with high fertility and high infant and child mortality, and declines in total mortality and substantial development initiatives. The discussion considers whether fertility patterns in Pakistan can be related to changes in child mortality, and whether current and future changes in fertility influence child survival favorably. Omran's study linked large family size to child survival. Resources, which are divided, become more important deficits in households below the poverty line: a situation common in Pakistan. High fertility is associated with short birth intervals, which are related to higher infant and child mortality. In Pakistan, the spacing and mortality link was found among both poverty and higher socioeconomic households. There is some support for the notion that it is birth weight and general health that are linked to survival rather than competition for resources. Other studies link the maternal age at birth and birth order with child mortality (Alam and Cleland). Trussel argues for limiting births in high risk ages of under 20 years and over 35 years. The exact casual link is not well documented. Institutional and community factors are also considered important in influencing child survival: sanitation, potable water, access to roads, electricity, health and family planning services, and sewage. Young infants are more vulnerable to these factors. Bangladesh and some Indian states have shown that population programs and raising per captia incomes are necessary to fertility decline. In India, female autonomy, access to education, and more equal income distribution were considered more important than economic development to child survival. In Pakistan, Sathar and Kazi have linked at least 2 years of elementary, maternal education with reductions in child mortality. The pervasiveness of female illiteracy hinders the chances of child survival. Sex preferences also impact on female children. The probably impacts of declines in breast

Survival rates of birds of tropical and temperate forests: will the dogma survive?

Science.gov (United States)

Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Klimkiewicz, M.K.; Brawn, J.D.

1990-01-01

Survival rates of tropical forest birds are widely assumed to be high relative to the survival rates of temperate forest birds. Much life-history theory is based on this assumption despite the lack of empirical data to support it. We provide the first detailed comparison of survival rates of tropical and temperate forest birds based on extensive data bases and modern capture-recapture models. We find no support for the conventional wisdom. Because clutch size is only one component of reproductive rate, the frequently assumed, simple association between clutch size and adult survival rates should not necessarily be expected. Our results emphasize the need to consider components of fecundity in addition to clutch size when comparing the life histories of tropical and temperate birds and suggest similar considerations in the development of vertebrate life-history theory.

An inexact fuzzy-chance-constrained air quality management model.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Ye; Huang, Guohe; Qin, Xiaosheng

2010-07-01

Regional air pollution is a major concern for almost every country because it not only directly relates to economic development, but also poses significant threats to environment and public health. In this study, an inexact fuzzy-chance-constrained air quality management model (IFAMM) was developed for regional air quality management under uncertainty. IFAMM was formulated through integrating interval linear programming (ILP) within a fuzzy-chance-constrained programming (FCCP) framework and could deal with uncertainties expressed as not only possibilistic distributions but also discrete intervals in air quality management systems. Moreover, the constraints with fuzzy variables could be satisfied at different confidence levels such that various solutions with different risk and cost considerations could be obtained. The developed model was applied to a hypothetical case of regional air quality management. Six abatement technologies and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission trading under uncertainty were taken into consideration. The results demonstrated that IFAMM could help decision-makers generate cost-effective air quality management patterns, gain in-depth insights into effects of the uncertainties, and analyze tradeoffs between system economy and reliability. The results also implied that the trading scheme could achieve lower total abatement cost than a nontrading one.

On signaling games with quantum chance move

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frackiewicz, Piotr

2015-01-01

We give formal conditions for a perfect Bayesian-type equilibrium in a quantum signaling game. We show that the conditions imply a classical perfect Bayesian equilibrium if the quantum game coincides with the classical one. Next, we extend the signaling game to include a quantum chance move. We prove that the classical relation between Nash equilibria and perfect Bayesian equilibria is preserved in that case—every perfect Bayesian-type equilibrium implies a Nash equilibrium, but the converse is not true. Lastly, we give a condition for equivalence between Nash equilibria and perfect Bayesian-type equilibria. (paper)

Chance, necessity and the origins of life: a physical sciences perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Hazen, Robert M.

2017-11-01

Earth's 4.5-billion-year history has witnessed a complex sequence of high-probability chemical and physical processes, as well as `frozen accidents'. Most models of life's origins similarly invoke a sequence of chemical reactions and molecular self-assemblies in which both necessity and chance play important roles. Recent research adds two important insights into this discussion. First, in the context of chemical reactions, chance versus necessity is an inherently false dichotomy-a range of probabilities exists for many natural events. Second, given the combinatorial richness of early Earth's chemical and physical environments, events in molecular evolution that are unlikely at limited laboratory scales of space and time may, nevertheless, be inevitable on an Earth-like planet at time scales of a billion years. This article is part of the themed issue 'Reconceptualizing the origins of life'.

Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio

2017-09-01

Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Small bowel entrapment and ureteropelvic junction disruption associated with L3 Chance fracture-dislocation

Science.gov (United States)

Pesenti, Sebastien; Blondel, Benjamin; Faure, Alice; Peltier, Emilie; Launay, Franck; Jouve, Jean-Luc

2016-01-01

Paediatric Chance fracture are rare lesions but often associated with abdominal injuries. We herein present the case of a seven years old patient who sustained an entrapment of small bowel and an ureteropelvic disruption associated with a Chance fracture and spine dislocation following a traffic accident. Initial X-rays and computed tomographic (CT) scan showed a Chance fracture with dislocation of L3 vertebra, with an incarceration of a small bowel loop in the spinal canal and a complete section of the left lumbar ureter. Paraplegia was noticed on the initial neurological examination. A posterior L2-L4 osteosynthesis was performed firstly. In a second time she underwent a sus umbilical laparotomy to release the incarcerated jejunum loop in the spinal canal. An end-to-end anastomosis was performed on a JJ probe to suture the left injured ureter. One month after the traumatism, she started to complain of severe headaches related to a leakage of cerebrospinalis fluid. Three months after the traumatism there was a clear regression of the leakage. One year after the trauma, an anterior intervertebral fusion was done. At final follow-up, no neurologic recovery was noticed. In case of Chance fracture, all physicians should think about abdominal injuries even if the patient is asymptomatic. Initial abdominal CT scan and magnetic resonance imaging provide in such case crucial info for management of the spine and the associated lesions. PMID:27672641

Universal doomsday: analyzing our prospects for survival

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gerig, Austin [CABDyN Complexity Centre, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1HP (United Kingdom); Olum, Ken D.; Vilenkin, Alexander, E-mail: austin.gerig@sbs.ox.ac.uk, E-mail: kdo@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: vilenkin@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu [Institute of Cosmology, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford MA 02155 (United States)

2013-05-01

Given a sufficiently large universe, numerous civilizations almost surely exist. Some of these civilizations will be short-lived and die out relatively early in their development, i.e., before having the chance to spread to other planets. Others will be long-lived, potentially colonizing their galaxy and becoming enormous in size. What fraction of civilizations in the universe are long-lived? The ''universal doomsday'' argument states that long-lived civilizations must be rare because if they were not, we should find ourselves living in one. Furthermore, because long-lived civilizations are rare, our civilization's prospects for long-term survival are poor. Here, we develop the formalism required for universal doomsday calculations and show that while the argument has some force, our future is not as gloomy as the traditional doomsday argument would suggest, at least when the number of early existential threats is small.

Inexact Multistage Stochastic Chance Constrained Programming Model for Water Resources Management under Uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In order to formulate water allocation schemes under uncertainties in the water resources management systems, an inexact multistage stochastic chance constrained programming (IMSCCP model is proposed. The model integrates stochastic chance constrained programming, multistage stochastic programming, and inexact stochastic programming within a general optimization framework to handle the uncertainties occurring in both constraints and objective. These uncertainties are expressed as probability distributions, interval with multiply distributed stochastic boundaries, dynamic features of the long-term water allocation plans, and so on. Compared with the existing inexact multistage stochastic programming, the IMSCCP can be used to assess more system risks and handle more complicated uncertainties in water resources management systems. The IMSCCP model is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. In order to construct an approximate solution for the model, a hybrid algorithm, which incorporates stochastic simulation, back propagation neural network, and genetic algorithm, is proposed. The results show that the optimal value represents the maximal net system benefit achieved with a given confidence level under chance constraints, and the solutions provide optimal water allocation schemes to multiple users over a multiperiod planning horizon.

Survival from skin cancer and its associated factors in Kurdistan province of Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmadi, Galavizh; Asadi-Lari, Mohsen; Amani, Saeid; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud

2015-01-01

We explored survival of skin cancer and its determinants in Kurdistan province of Iran. In a retrospective cohort design, we identified all registered skin cancer patients in Kurdistan Cancer Registry from year 2000 to 2009. Information on time and cause of death were obtained from Registrar's office and information on type, stage and anatomic locations were extracted from patients' hospital records. Additional demographic information was collected via a telephone interview. We calculated the 3 and 5 years survival. Survival experiences in different groups were compared using log rank test. Cox proportional hazard model was built and hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Of a total of 1353, contact information for 667 patients were available, all of which were followed up. 472 telephone interviews were conducted. Mean follow-up time was 34 months. We identified 78 deaths in this group of patients and 44 of them were because of skin cancer. After controlling for confounding, tumour type, anatomical location, and diseases stage remained significantly associated with survival. Hazard ratios for death because of squamous cell carcinoma was 74.5 (95%CI: 4.8-1146) and for melanoma was 24.4 (95%CI: 1.3-485) compared with basal cell carcinomas. Hazard ratio for tumours in stage 4 was 16.7 (95%CI: 1.8-156.6) and for stage 3 was 16.8 (95%CI: 1.07-260) compared with stage 1 and 2. Tumour stage is independently associated with survival. Relatively low survival rates suggest delayed diagnosis. Increasing public awareness through media about the warning signs of skin cancers could increase the chance of survival in these patients.

Pre-Service Mathematics Teachers' Use of Probability Models in Making Informal Inferences about a Chance Game

Science.gov (United States)

Kazak, Sibel; Pratt, Dave

2017-01-01

This study considers probability models as tools for both making informal statistical inferences and building stronger conceptual connections between data and chance topics in teaching statistics. In this paper, we aim to explore pre-service mathematics teachers' use of probability models for a chance game, where the sum of two dice matters in…

Comparison of clinical and survival characteristics between prostate cancer patients of PSA-based screening and clinical diagnosis in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Libo; Wang, Jinguo; Guo, Baofeng; Zhang, Haixia; Wang, Kaichen; Wang, Ding; Dai, Chang; Zhang, Ling; Zhao, Xuejian

2018-01-02

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based mass screening remains the most controversial topic in prostate cancer. PSA-based mass screening has not been widely used in China yet. The aim of our study was to evaluate the effect of the PSA-based screening in China. The cohort consisted of 1,012 prostate cancer patients. Data were retrospectively collected and clinical characteristics of the cohorts were investigated. Survival was analyzed for prostatic carcinoma of both PSA screened and clinically diagnosed patients according to clinical characteristics and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk classification. Cox Proportional Hazards Model analysis was done for risk predictor identification. The median age was 71 years old. Five-year overall and prostate-cancer-specific survival in prostatic adenocarcinoma patients were 77.52% and 79.65%; 10-year survivals were 62.57% and 68.60%, respectively. Survival was significantly poorer in patients with metastases and non-curative management. T staging and Gleason score by NCCN classification effectively stratified prostatic adenocarcinoma patients into different risk groups. T staging was a significant predictor of survival by COX Proportional Hazard Model. PSA screened patients had a significantly higher percentage diagnosed in early stage. PSA screened prostatic adenocarcinoma patients had a better prognosis in both overall and prostate cancer-specific survivals. This Chinese cohort had a lower overall and prostate cancer survival rate than it is reported in western countries. The incidence of early-stage prostate cancer found in PSA-based mass screening was high and there were significant differences in both overall and prostate cancer-specific survival between the PSA-screened and clinically diagnosed patients.

What affects local community hospitals' survival in turbulent times?

Science.gov (United States)

Chiang, Hung-Che; Wang, Shiow-Ing

2015-06-01

Hospital closures became a prevalent phenomenon in Taiwan after the implementation of a national health insurance program. A wide range of causes contributes to the viability of hospitals, but little is known about the situation under universal coverage health systems. The purpose of present study is to recognize the factors that may contribute to hospital survival under the universal coverage health system. This is a retrospective case-control study. Local community hospitals that contracted with the Bureau of National Health Insurance in 1998 and remained open during the period 1998-2011 are the designated cases. Controls are local community hospitals that closed during the same period. Using longitudinal representative health claim data, 209 local community hospitals that closed during 1998-2011 were compared with 165 that remained open. Variables related to institutional characteristics, degree of competition, characteristics of patients and financial performance were analyzed by logistic regression models. Hospitals' survival was positively related to specialty hospital, the number of respiratory care beds, the physician to population ratio, the number of clinics in the same region, a highly competitive market and the occupancy rate of elderly patients in the hospital. Teaching hospitals, investor-owned hospitals, the provision of obstetrics services or home care, and the number of medical centers or other local community hospitals may jeopardize the chance of survival. Factors-enhanced local hospitals to survive under the universal coverage health system have been identified. Hospital managers could manipulate these findings and adapt strategies for subsistence. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

Challenges in the estimation of Net SURvival: The CENSUR working survival group.

Science.gov (United States)

Giorgi, R

2016-10-01

Net survival, the survival probability that would be observed, in a hypothetical world, where the cancer of interest would be the only possible cause of death, is a key indicator in population-based cancer studies. Accounting for mortality due to other causes, it allows cross-country comparisons or trends analysis and provides a useful indicator for public health decision-making. The objective of this study was to show how the creation and formalization of a network comprising established research teams, which already had substantial and complementary experience in both cancer survival analysis and methodological development, make it possible to meet challenges and thus provide more adequate tools, to improve the quality and the comparability of cancer survival data, and to promote methodological transfers in areas of emerging interest. The Challenges in the Estimation of Net SURvival (CENSUR) working survival group is composed of international researchers highly skilled in biostatistics, methodology, and epidemiology, from different research organizations in France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Slovenia, and Canada, and involved in French (FRANCIM) and European (EUROCARE) cancer registry networks. The expected advantages are an interdisciplinary, international, synergistic network capable of addressing problems in public health, for decision-makers at different levels; tools for those in charge of net survival analyses; a common methodology that makes unbiased cross-national comparisons of cancer survival feasible; transfer of methods for net survival estimations to other specific applications (clinical research, occupational epidemiology); and dissemination of results during an international training course. The formalization of the international CENSUR working survival group was motivated by a need felt by scientists conducting population-based cancer research to discuss, develop, and monitor implementation of a common methodology to analyze net survival in order

Second Chances. The Value of Adult Education and the GED

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Mike

2013-01-01

This is an excerpt from "Back to School: Why Everyone Deserves a Second Chance at Education" (The New Press, 2012). It concludes that GED programs need more resources, not less. The programs tend to be populated by low-to-modest income people who failed school the first time around and now are considered less worthy of investment. GED…

Childhood cancer incidence and survival in Japan and England: A population-based study (1993-2010).

Science.gov (United States)

Nakata, Kayo; Ito, Yuri; Magadi, Winnie; Bonaventure, Audrey; Stiller, Charles A; Katanoda, Kota; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Miyashiro, Isao; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy; Rachet, Bernard

2018-02-01

The present study aimed to compare cancer incidence and trends in survival for children diagnosed in Japan and England, using population-based cancer registry data. The analysis was based on 5192 children with cancer (age 0-14 years) from 6 prefectural cancer registries in Japan and 21 295 children diagnosed in England during 1993-2010. Differences in incidence rates between the 2 countries were measured with Poisson regression models. Overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Incidence rates for Hodgkin lymphoma, renal tumors and Ewing sarcomas in England were more than twice as high as those in Japan. Incidence of germ cell tumors, hepatic tumors, neuroblastoma and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) was higher in Japan than in England. Incidence of all cancers combined decreased in Japan throughout the period 1993 to 2010, which was mainly explained by a decrease in registration of neuroblastoma in infants. For many cancers, 5-year survival improved in both countries. The improvement in survival in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) was particularly dramatic in both countries. However, 5-year survival remained less than 80% in 2005-2008 in both countries for AML, brain tumors, soft tissue sarcomas, malignant bone tumors and neuroblastoma (age 1-14 years). There were significant differences in incidence of several cancers between countries, suggesting variation in genetic susceptibility and possibly environmental factors. The decrease in incidence for all cancers combined in Japan was related to the cessation of the national screening program for neuroblastoma. The large improvement in survival in CML coincided with the introduction of effective therapy (imatinib). © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

Long-term survival among Hodgkin's lymphoma patients with gastrointestinal cancer: a population-based study

Science.gov (United States)

Youn, P.; Li, H.; Milano, M. T.; Stovall, M.; Constine, L. S.; Travis, L. B.

2013-01-01

Background The increased risk of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers after Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) is well established. However, no large population-based study has described the actuarial survival after subsequent GI cancers in HL survivors (HL-GI). Patients and methods For 209 patients with HL-GI cancers (105 colon, 35 stomach, 30 pancreas, 21 rectum, and 18 esophagus) and 484 165 patients with first primary GI cancers (GI-1), actuarial survival was compared, accounting for age, gender, race, GI cancer stage, radiation for HL, and other variables. Results Though survival of HL patients who developed localized stage colon cancer was similar to that of the GI-1 group, overall survival (OS) of HL patients with regional or distant stage colon cancer was reduced [hazard ratio, (HR) = 1.46, P = 0.01]. The HL survivors with regional or distant stage colon cancer in the transverse segment had an especially high risk of mortality (HR: 2.7, P = 0.001 for OS). For localized stomach cancer, OS was inferior among HL survivors (HR = 3.46, P = 0.006). Conclusions The HL patients who develop GI cancer experience significantly reduced survival compared with patients with a first primary GI cancer. Further research is needed to explain the inferior survival of HL patients and to define selection criteria for cancer screening in HL survivors. PMID:22855552

Estimating the chance of success in IVF treatment using a ranking algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Güvenir, H Altay; Misirli, Gizem; Dilbaz, Serdar; Ozdegirmenci, Ozlem; Demir, Berfu; Dilbaz, Berna

2015-09-01

In medicine, estimating the chance of success for treatment is important in deciding whether to begin the treatment or not. This paper focuses on the domain of in vitro fertilization (IVF), where estimating the outcome of a treatment is very crucial in the decision to proceed with treatment for both the clinicians and the infertile couples. IVF treatment is a stressful and costly process. It is very stressful for couples who want to have a baby. If an initial evaluation indicates a low pregnancy rate, decision of the couple may change not to start the IVF treatment. The aim of this study is twofold, firstly, to develop a technique that can be used to estimate the chance of success for a couple who wants to have a baby and secondly, to determine the attributes and their particular values affecting the outcome in IVF treatment. We propose a new technique, called success estimation using a ranking algorithm (SERA), for estimating the success of a treatment using a ranking-based algorithm. The particular ranking algorithm used here is RIMARC. The performance of the new algorithm is compared with two well-known algorithms that assign class probabilities to query instances. The algorithms used in the comparison are Naïve Bayes Classifier and Random Forest. The comparison is done in terms of area under the ROC curve, accuracy and execution time, using tenfold stratified cross-validation. The results indicate that the proposed SERA algorithm has a potential to be used successfully to estimate the probability of success in medical treatment.

Evaluating the efficacy of tumor markers CA 19-9 and CEA to predict operability and survival in pancreatic malignancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, Jay; Prabhu, Ramkrishna; Eshpuniyani, Priya; Kantharia, Chetan; Supe, Avinash

2010-01-01

Using CA 19-9 and CEA (elevated > 2 times of normal) as predictors in determining operability and survival in pancreatic tumors. Levels of CA 19-9 and CEA were measured (pre and post operatively) in 49 patients of pancreatic malignancy. CECT was performed for diagnosis and staging. An experienced surgeon determined the operability. The levels of tumor markers were correlated with the operability and the survival based on CECT and intra-operative findings. 16/24 (67%) patients with CA 19-9 levels (CEA levels (CEA levels (p = 0.003) were found to be non-resectable. Of the 27 patients, found resectable on CECT, 5 were non-resectable intra-operatively. All of these had elevated levels of CA 19-9 and 4/5 (80%) had elevated levels of CEA. Only 5/21 (23%) non-resectable patients, with elevated levels of CA 19-9 reported at 1 year follow up. None of the non-resectable patients with CA 19-9 levels > 1000 U/ml reported at 6 month follow-up. None of the resectable patients pre-operatively showed evidence of recurrence. All achieved normal values post surgery. Elevated levels of CA 19-9 and CEA (> 2 times) predict increased chances of inoperability and poor survival in pancreatic tumors. Levels > 3 times had increased risk of inoperability even in patients deemed resectable on CT-Scan. Diagnostic laparoscopy would be beneficial in these patients. Levels of CA 19-9 (> 1000 U/ml) indicate a dismal survival in non-resectable group of patients.

[Adolescents in Web 2.0: risks and chances ].

Science.gov (United States)

Salisch, Maria von

2014-01-01

That almost all adolescents possess an individual access to the internet and that they use it every day, lays the foundation for the improved means of self presentation and participation that are known by the notion of Web 2.0. Social networks and other interactive internet formats give rise to new risks like cyber mobbing which is the topic of three contributions. At the same time, Web 2.0 offers chances in the form of online counseling and online therapy that cater to the preferences of media-friendly target group of adolescents.

Robust and Reliable Portfolio Optimization Formulation of a Chance Constrained Problem

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Sengupta Raghu Nandan

2017-02-01

Full Text Available We solve a linear chance constrained portfolio optimization problem using Robust Optimization (RO method wherein financial script/asset loss return distributions are considered as extreme valued. The objective function is a convex combination of portfolio’s CVaR and expected value of loss return, subject to a set of randomly perturbed chance constraints with specified probability values. The robust deterministic counterpart of the model takes the form of Second Order Cone Programming (SOCP problem. Results from extensive simulation runs show the efficacy of our proposed models, as it helps the investor to (i utilize extensive simulation studies to draw insights into the effect of randomness in portfolio decision making process, (ii incorporate different risk appetite scenarios to find the optimal solutions for the financial portfolio allocation problem and (iii compare the risk and return profiles of the investments made in both deterministic as well as in uncertain and highly volatile financial markets.

Who gets a job after graduation? Factors affecting the early career employment chances of higher education graduates in Poland

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Mikołaj Jasiński

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The massification of higher education in Poland means that many students choose this educational pathway to improve their chances for a good job. Therefore, the labour market outcomes of graduates provide an important perspective for future students, higher education institutions, as well as decision makers at the national level. The Polish Graduate Tracking System (ELA, based on administrative data, is designed to monitor graduates’ outcomes in the labour market by type of studies, higher education institution, as well as individual curricula. Results of the first two years of graduate tracking show that the outcomes vary by study area, but also change over time. While in the first months after graduation, aspects such as prior experience in the labour market and place of residence have a substantial effect on employment chances, in the longer run, they lose their importance relative to other factors.

A teaching and learning sequence about the interplay of chance and determinism in nonlinear systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stavrou, D; Duit, R; Komorek, M

2008-01-01

A teaching and learning sequence aimed at introducing upper secondary school students to the interplay between chance and determinism in nonlinear systems is presented. Three experiments concerning nonlinear systems (deterministic chaos, self-organization and fractals) and one experiment concerning linear systems are introduced. Thirty upper secondary students' capabilities and difficulties in understanding the scientific point of view were investigated, using a teaching experiment design. The results show that most students were capable of sound explanations concerning the interplay of chance and determinism in nonlinear systems

"I've Always Believed in Second or Third Chance Education"

Science.gov (United States)

Stanistreet, Paul

2011-01-01

Few university leaders can speak with as much authority about the transformative power of learning as Mary Stuart, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Lincoln. She knows first-hand both what it is like to be poor and down on her luck and how "second chance" education and a willingness to work hard and take risks can turn lives around.…

Survival and health in liveborn infants with transposition of great arteries--a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Garne, Ester; Loane, Maria A; Nelen, Vera; Bakker, Marian K; Gener, Blanca; Abramsky, Lenore; Addor, Marie-Claude; Queisser-Luft, Annette

2007-01-01

To describe treatment, survival, and morbidity for liveborn infants with isolated transposition of great arteries (TGA). Population-based data from 7 European registries of congenital malformations (EUROCAT). Ninety-seven infants were diagnosed with isolated TGA and livebirth prevalence was 2.0 per 10,000 livebirths. The majority of infants were treated with prostaglandins (83%) and 57% had a catheter atrial septostomia performed. Arterial switch surgery was performed in 78 infants, other or unknown type of surgery was performed in 3 cases, and for 6 infants there was no information on surgery. At 1 year of age 69 infants were alive (71%) and 24 (25%) were dead (4 unknown). There were 10 deaths before surgery and 58% of all deaths took place during the first week. There was no statistically significant regional difference in mortality. Eight infants diagnosed prenatally all survived to 1 year and only 71% of infants diagnosed after birth survived (P = 0.08). Data on morbidity at 1 year of age was available for 57 infants. Fifty-one infants were reported with normal health and development. In this population-based study survival for liveborn infants with TGA is lower than in studies published from tertiary centers. Outcome for survivors at 1 year of age seems favorable.

Chance, choice, and the future of reproduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, W B

1983-11-01

The evolution of reproduction has been characterized by the development of complex biological and behavioral mechanisms that serve to regulate chance events. Human reproduction has been characterized by the increasing importance of individual choice. Some contemporary manifestations of this broad trend are the high incidence of contraceptive and "proceptive" behavior among couples in Western, industrialized nations. The former behavior willingly attempts to prevent conception while the latter actively attempts to induce conception (such as concentrating intercourse around the time of ovulation). Both patterns of behavior indicate that a choice is being made. A 3-year study of 1000 women revealed proceptive behavior as the most important factor predicting occurance of conception among married couples in the United States. The general strategeis people follow while making childbearing decisions: termination, sequencing, and pre-planning form a continuum following the historical trend toward greater reproductive control. In the terminating strategy, a couple makes no decision about child bearing until the number of children they have become enough or too much. In the sequencing strategy, decisions to have children are made 1 child at a time until a satisfactory limit is reached. In the pre-planning strategy, a plan is worked out ahead of time and is subsequently carried out. As new reproductive technology is introduced and as progressive change is made in society's reproductive related values and beliefs, choice will continue to dominate chance as the highly likely trend for the future of reproduction. Surrogate maternity is just 1 example of this trend. However, these new options, which culminate in the theory and practice of "progensis," (still in its infancy), as well as offering a rich opportunity, can also incur psychological burdens on a couple. Thus, as with any kind of freedom, these developments will require care, caution and responsibility.

Investigation of Prognostic Factors and Survival without Recurrence in Patients with Breast Cancer

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Ahmad Abdollahi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background: One of the major consequences of breast cancer is the recurrence of the disease. The objective of present study was to estimate the 7-year survival without recurrence as well as the effective prognostic factors in recurrence. Materials and Methods: This historical cohort survival analysis was conducted on 1329 patients diagnosed with breast cancer in Motahari Breast Clinic, Shiraz, Iran between 2004 and 2011. We estimated the rate of survival without recurrence through the Kaplan–Meier method and the difference between the survival curves was investigated using the log-rank test. Furthermore, Cox regression model was used to model the effective factors in local recurrence as well as metastasis. Results: The mean age of the patients was 54.8 ± 11.4 years. Estrogen receptor positive, progesterone receptor positive, and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 positive were observed in 70.6%, 66.6%, and 34.4% of the cases, respectively. The mean of the follow-up period was 3.7 ± 1.8 years in all patients. The results of the Kaplan–Meier method revealed 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-year rate of survival without recurrence as 96.4%, 78.4%, 66.3%, and 54.8%, respectively. There was a significant relationship between survival without recurrence and histology grade (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.66, P = 0.009, neural invasion (HR = 1.74, P = 0.006, and progesterone receptors (HR = 0.69, P = 0.031. Conclusion: In this study, the rate of survival without recurrence in breast cancer was 54.8%. Among factors, histology grade and neural involvement at the time of diagnosis increased the chance of recurrence and progesterone receptors caused a longer interval between diagnosis and recurrence.

Nomogram-based Prediction of Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma Receiving First-line Platinum-based Chemotherapy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Necchi, Andrea; Sonpavde, Guru; Lo Vullo, Salvatore

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The available prognostic models for overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC) have been derived from clinical trial populations of cisplatin-treated patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop a new model based on real-world patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICI...

Development of a cell-based treatment for long-term neurotrophin expression and spiral ganglion neuron survival.

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Zanin, M P; Hellström, M; Shepherd, R K; Harvey, A R; Gillespie, L N

2014-09-26

Spiral ganglion neurons (SGNs), the target cells of the cochlear implant, undergo gradual degeneration following loss of the sensory epithelium in deafness. The preservation of a viable population of SGNs in deafness can be achieved in animal models with exogenous application of neurotrophins such as brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and neurotrophin-3. For translation into clinical application, a suitable delivery strategy that provides ongoing neurotrophic support and promotes long-term SGN survival is required. Cell-based neurotrophin treatment has the potential to meet the specific requirements for clinical application, and we have previously reported that Schwann cells genetically modified to express BDNF can support SGN survival in deafness for 4 weeks. This study aimed to investigate various parameters important for the development of a long-term cell-based neurotrophin treatment to support SGN survival. Specifically, we investigated different (i) cell types, (ii) gene transfer methods and (iii) neurotrophins, in order to determine which variables may provide long-term neurotrophin expression and which, therefore, may be the most effective for supporting long-term SGN survival in vivo. We found that fibroblasts that were nucleofected to express BDNF provided the most sustained neurotrophin expression, with ongoing BDNF expression for at least 30 weeks. In addition, the secreted neurotrophin was biologically active and elicited survival effects on SGNs in vitro. Nucleofected fibroblasts may therefore represent a method for safe, long-term delivery of neurotrophins to the deafened cochlea to support SGN survival in deafness. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adult Student Assessment in Second Chance Schools in Greece: Teachers' Views

Science.gov (United States)

Koutrouba, Konstantina; Vamvakari, Malvina; Margara, Theodora; Anagnou, Evaggelos

2011-01-01

The present study aims at presenting the views of second chance school (SCS) teachers, seconded from formal education schools. Firstly, on the positive outcomes resulting from project and portfolio assessment and student self evaluation in SCSs, secondly, the difficulties experienced during the assessment process and, thirdly, the combined use of…

Second Chance Programmes: A Response to Educational Needs in Compulsory Education

Science.gov (United States)

Asin, Antonio Sanchez; Peinado, Jose Luis Boix

2008-01-01

This paper asks whether the integrated training provision currently offered through the different Spanish Second Chance Programmes (SCPs) constitutes a valid response to the educational needs and deficits known to exist among those young people who do not satisfactorily complete the Compulsory Secondary Education stage (ESO). The objectives of the…

L’amour comme émotion morale? Partialité parentale et égalité des chances

OpenAIRE

Merrill, Nathaniel Roberto Buil

2014-01-01

Introduction Partialité parentale et égalité des chances Quelles relations justifient la partialité de l’amour parental ? Mitiger ou neutraliser les inégalités des chances provoquées par l’amour ? Trois théories sur l’amour Que veut dire : « aimer quelqu’un » ? L’amour comme désir L’amour comme émotion L’amour comme relation Le conflit entre amour et morale Amour parental en tant que création de valeur Amour partial de la relation amoureuse Amour impartial ...

An approach to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model

Science.gov (United States)

Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Fesenko, Herman; Doukas, Nikos

2017-09-01

An approach and the algorithm to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model are proposed. The input data are the number of the drones, the drone fleet redundancy coefficient, the drone stability and restoration rate, the limit deviation from the norms of the drone fleet recovery, the drone fleet operational availability coefficient, the probability of the drone failure-free operation, time needed for performing the required tasks by the drone fleet. The ways for improving the recoverable drone fleet survivability taking into account amazing factors of system accident are suggested. Dependencies of the drone fleet survivability rate both on the drone stability and the number of the drones are analysed.

An Interval Fuzzy-Stochastic Chance-Constrained Programming Based Energy-Water Nexus Model for Planning Electric Power Systems

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Jing Liu

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In this study, an interval fuzzy-stochastic chance-constrained programming based energy-water nexus (IFSCP-WEN model is developed for planning electric power system (EPS. The IFSCP-WEN model can tackle uncertainties expressed as possibility and probability distributions, as well as interval values. Different credibility (i.e., γ levels and probability (i.e., qi levels are set to reflect relationships among water supply, electricity generation, system cost, and constraint-violation risk. Results reveal that different γ and qi levels can lead to a changed system cost, imported electricity, electricity generation, and water supply. Results also disclose that the study EPS would tend to the transition from coal-dominated into clean energy-dominated. Gas-fired would be the main electric utility to supply electricity at the end of the planning horizon, occupying [28.47, 30.34]% (where 28.47% and 30.34% present the lower bound and the upper bound of interval value, respectively of the total electricity generation. Correspondingly, water allocated to gas-fired would reach the highest, occupying [33.92, 34.72]% of total water supply. Surface water would be the main water source, accounting for more than [40.96, 43.44]% of the total water supply. The ratio of recycled water to total water supply would increase by about [11.37, 14.85]%. Results of the IFSCP-WEN model present its potential for sustainable EPS planning by co-optimizing energy and water resources.

The inflammation-based Glasgow Prognostic Score predicts survival in patients with cervical cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Polterauer, Stephan; Grimm, Christoph; Seebacher, Veronika; Rahhal, Jasmin; Tempfer, Clemens; Reinthaller, Alexander; Hefler, Lukas

2010-08-01

The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) is known to reflect the degree of tumor-associated cachexia and inflammation and is associated with survival in various malignancies. We investigated the value of the GPS in patients with cervical cancer. We included 244 consecutive patients with cervical cancer in our study. The pretherapeutic GPS was calculated as follows: patients with elevated C-reactive protein serum levels (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were allocated a score of 2, and patients with 1 or no abnormal value were allocated a score of 1 or 0, respectively. The association between GPS and survival was evaluated by univariate log-rank tests and multivariate Cox regression models. The GPS was correlated with clinicopathologic parameters as shown by performing chi2 tests. In univariate analyses, GPS (P GPS (P = 0.03, P = 0.04), FIGO stage (P = 0.006, P = 0.006), and lymph node involvement (P = 0.003, P = 0.002), but not patients' age (P = 0.5, P = 0.5), histological grade (P = 0.7, P = 0.6), and histological type (P = 0.4, P = 0.6) were associated with disease-free and overall survival, respectively. The GPS was associated with FIGO stage (P GPS can be used as an inflammation-based predictor for survival in patients with cervical cancer.

SU-E-T-574: Novel Chance-Constrained Optimization in Intensity-Modulated Proton Therapy Planning to Account for Range and Patient Setup Uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An, Y; Liang, J; Liu, W

2015-01-01

Purpose: We propose to apply a probabilistic framework, namely chanceconstrained optimization, in the intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) planning subject to range and patient setup uncertainties. The purpose is to hedge against the influence of uncertainties and improve robustness of treatment plans. Methods: IMPT plans were generated for a typical prostate patient. Nine dose distributions are computed — the nominal one and one each for ±5mm setup uncertainties along three cardinal axes and for ±3.5% range uncertainty. These nine dose distributions are supplied to the solver CPLEX as chance constraints to explicitly control plan robustness under these representative uncertainty scenarios with certain probability. This probability is determined by the tolerance level. We make the chance-constrained model tractable by converting it to a mixed integer optimization problem. The quality of plans derived from this method is evaluated using dose-volume histogram (DVH) indices such as tumor dose homogeneity (D5% – D95%) and coverage (D95%) and normal tissue sparing like V70 of rectum, V65, and V40 of bladder. We also compare the results from this novel method with the conventional PTV-based method to further demonstrate its effectiveness Results: Our model can yield clinically acceptable plans within 50 seconds. The chance-constrained optimization produces IMPT plans with comparable target coverage, better target dose homogeneity, and better normal tissue sparing compared to the PTV-based optimization [D95% CTV: 67.9 vs 68.7 (Gy), D5% – D95% CTV: 11.9 vs 18 (Gy), V70 rectum: 0.0 % vs 0.33%, V65 bladder: 2.17% vs 9.33%, V40 bladder: 8.83% vs 21.83%]. It also simultaneously makes the plan more robust [Width of DVH band at D50%: 2.0 vs 10.0 (Gy)]. The tolerance level may be varied to control the tradeoff between plan robustness and quality. Conclusion: The chance-constrained optimization generates superior IMPT plan compared to the PTV-based optimization with

One Chance to Get it Right: understanding the new guidance for care of the dying person.

Science.gov (United States)

Sykes, Nigel

2015-09-01

Following criticism of the Liverpool Care of the Dying Pathway (LCP), widely used to guide care of dying people in British health-care settings, the UK Government set up an independent review which in 2013 recommended that use of the LCP be discontinued. In response, the Leadership Alliance for the Care of Dying People, a coalition of a wide range of stakeholders, recently published guidance entitled One Chance to Get it Right. This guidance contains five Priorities of Care for the dying person that are intended to guide clinical staff and will inform Care Quality Commission inspections of health-care providers. This article summarizes the background to One Chance to Get it Right and the guidance it contains. One Chance to Get it Right, More Care, Less Pathway and related guidance documents. The need to improve the standard of end-of-life care in every clinical setting. The value of a pathway-based approach to end-of-life care in a context where well-implemented programmes of staff education in the subject are lacking. Public concern with, and scrutiny of, the quality of dying in the UK health-care system, particularly in hospitals but also the ability of patients to die well at home where that is their place of choice. Effective methods of teaching end of life care to all clinical staff; the effect upon families of caring for a dying relative at home; the optimum type, quantity and source of external support to informal carers that is perceived by them as adequate and enables the ill person to die well in in their own home; fuller understanding of the physiology of dying. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Child survival in big cities: the disadvantages of migrants.

Science.gov (United States)

Brockerhoff, M

1995-05-01

Data from 15 Demographic and Health Surveys are used to examine whether rural-urban migrants in developing countries experience higher child mortality after settling in towns and cities than do lifelong urban residents, and if so, what individual or household characteristics account for this. Findings indicate that children of female migrants from the countryside generally have much poorer survival chances than other urban children. This survival disadvantage is more pronounced in big cities than in smaller urban areas, among migrants who have lived in the city for many years than among recent migrants, and in urban Latin America than in urban North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. Within big cities, higher child mortality among migrant women is clearly related to their concentration in low-quality housing, and in part to fertility patterns at early ages of children and mother's educational attainment at later ages. Excess child mortality among urban migrants may also result from factors associated with the migration process, that are outlined in this study but not included in the analysis. Evidence of moderately high levels of residential segregation of migrant women in big cities suggests that opportunities exist for urban health programs to direct interventions to this disadvantaged segment of city populations.

First and second chance fission calculations for actinides and related topics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maino, G.; Menapace, E.; Motta, M.; Ventura, A.

1980-01-01

First and second chance contributions to neutron induced fission cross sections in an energy range of interest for reactor applications (E/sub n/less than or equal to 13 MeV) were obtained by extensive and consistent calculations for 241 Am; moreover, a simplified semiempirical approach was applied to 235 U and 239 Pu

Partitioning of excess mortality in population-based cancer patient survival studies using flexible parametric survival models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eloranta Sandra

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Relative survival is commonly used for studying survival of cancer patients as it captures both the direct and indirect contribution of a cancer diagnosis on mortality by comparing the observed survival of the patients to the expected survival in a comparable cancer-free population. However, existing methods do not allow estimation of the impact of isolated conditions (e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality on the total excess mortality. For this purpose we extend flexible parametric survival models for relative survival, which use restricted cubic splines for the baseline cumulative excess hazard and for any time-dependent effects. Methods In the extended model we partition the excess mortality associated with a diagnosis of cancer through estimating a separate baseline excess hazard function for the outcomes under investigation. This is done by incorporating mutually exclusive background mortality rates, stratified by the underlying causes of death reported in the Swedish population, and by introducing cause of death as a time-dependent effect in the extended model. This approach thereby enables modeling of temporal trends in e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality simultaneously. Furthermore, we illustrate how the results from the proposed model can be used to derive crude probabilities of death due to the component parts, i.e., probabilities estimated in the presence of competing causes of death. Results The method is illustrated with examples where the total excess mortality experienced by patients diagnosed with breast cancer is partitioned into excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality. Conclusions The proposed method can be used to simultaneously study disease patterns and temporal trends for various causes of cancer-consequent deaths. Such information should be of interest for patients and clinicians as one way of improving prognosis after cancer is

Chance in Science: The Discovery of Electromagnetism by H. C. Oersted

Science.gov (United States)

Kipnis, Nahum

2005-01-01

Ignoring the role of chance in science distorts the nature of the scientific process. Teachers can address this issue by means of several in-depth historical case studies, such as the discovery of electromagnetism by Oersted. Oersted was led to his lecture experiment by logic (two new hypotheses), but its success from the first trial was largely…

Nation-Scale Adoption of Shorter Breast Radiation Therapy Schedules Can Increase Survival in Resource Constrained Economies: Results From a Markov Chain Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khan, Atif J., E-mail: atif.j.khan@rutgers.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School/Cancer Institute of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey (United States); Rafique, Raza [Suleman Dawood School of Business, Lahore University of Management Sciences, Lahore (Pakistan); Zafar, Waleed [Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre, Lahore (Pakistan); Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio (United States); Haffty, Bruce G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School/Cancer Institute of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey (United States); Vicini, Frank [Michigan HealthCare Professionals, Farmington Hills, Michigan (United States); Jamshed, Arif [Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre, Lahore (Pakistan); Zhao, Yao [Rutgers University School of Business, Newark, New Jersey (United States)

2017-02-01

Purpose: Hypofractionated whole breast irradiation and accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) offer women options for shorter courses of breast radiation therapy. The impact of these shorter schedules on the breast cancer populations of emerging economies with limited radiation therapy resources is unknown. We hypothesized that adoption of these schedules would improve throughput in the system and, by allowing more women access to life-saving treatments, improve patient survival within the system. Methods and Materials: We designed a Markov chain model to simulate the different health states that a postlumpectomy or postmastectomy patient could enter over the course of a 20-year follow-up period. Transition rates between health states were adapted from published data on recurrence rates. We used primary data from a tertiary care hospital in Lahore, Pakistan, to populate the model with proportional use of mastectomy versus breast conservation and to estimate the proportion of patients suitable for APBI. Sensitivity analyses on the use of APBI and relative efficacy of APBI were conducted to study the impact on the population. Results: The shorter schedule resulted in more women alive and more women remaining without evidence of disease (NED) compared with the conventional schedule, with an absolute difference of about 4% and 7% at 15 years, respectively. Among women who had lumpectomies, the chance of remaining alive and with an intact breast was 62% in the hypofractionation model and 54% in the conventional fractionation model. Conclusions: Increasing throughput in the system can result in improved survival, improved chances of remaining without evidence of disease, and improved chances of remaining alive with a breast. These findings are significant and suggest that adoption of hypofractionation in emerging economies is not simply a question of efficiency and cost but one of access to care and patient survivorship.

Nation-Scale Adoption of Shorter Breast Radiation Therapy Schedules Can Increase Survival in Resource Constrained Economies: Results From a Markov Chain Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, Atif J.; Rafique, Raza; Zafar, Waleed; Shah, Chirag; Haffty, Bruce G.; Vicini, Frank; Jamshed, Arif; Zhao, Yao

2017-01-01

Purpose: Hypofractionated whole breast irradiation and accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) offer women options for shorter courses of breast radiation therapy. The impact of these shorter schedules on the breast cancer populations of emerging economies with limited radiation therapy resources is unknown. We hypothesized that adoption of these schedules would improve throughput in the system and, by allowing more women access to life-saving treatments, improve patient survival within the system. Methods and Materials: We designed a Markov chain model to simulate the different health states that a postlumpectomy or postmastectomy patient could enter over the course of a 20-year follow-up period. Transition rates between health states were adapted from published data on recurrence rates. We used primary data from a tertiary care hospital in Lahore, Pakistan, to populate the model with proportional use of mastectomy versus breast conservation and to estimate the proportion of patients suitable for APBI. Sensitivity analyses on the use of APBI and relative efficacy of APBI were conducted to study the impact on the population. Results: The shorter schedule resulted in more women alive and more women remaining without evidence of disease (NED) compared with the conventional schedule, with an absolute difference of about 4% and 7% at 15 years, respectively. Among women who had lumpectomies, the chance of remaining alive and with an intact breast was 62% in the hypofractionation model and 54% in the conventional fractionation model. Conclusions: Increasing throughput in the system can result in improved survival, improved chances of remaining without evidence of disease, and improved chances of remaining alive with a breast. These findings are significant and suggest that adoption of hypofractionation in emerging economies is not simply a question of efficiency and cost but one of access to care and patient survivorship.

Bearable development: the last chance for nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damian, M.

1994-01-01

The nuclear recession is deep, long-lived, and already getting on in years. The great divide in worldwide program developments goes back to the beginning of the seventies. Medium-term nuclear programs are now becoming less and less ambitious, and no sharp upturn can be expected on the time scale of a generation. It seems that, to maintain the nuclear option any farther into the future than that, the minimum prerequisite will be for all the power and industrial activities concerned to integrate the environmental and social costs. Paradoxically, the growing movement in search of a more ''bearable'' development might be the last chance for nuclear power. (author). 39 refs

An Equilibrium Chance-Constrained Multiobjective Programming Model with Birandom Parameters and Its Application to Inventory Problem

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Zhimiao Tao

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An equilibrium chance-constrained multiobjective programming model with birandom parameters is proposed. A type of linear model is converted into its crisp equivalent model. Then a birandom simulation technique is developed to tackle the general birandom objective functions and birandom constraints. By embedding the birandom simulation technique, a modified genetic algorithm is designed to solve the equilibrium chance-constrained multiobjective programming model. We apply the proposed model and algorithm to a real-world inventory problem and show the effectiveness of the model and the solution method.

Leadership Distinctions: The Impact of Leadership on Teachers of "Second Chance Reading"

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Rebecca Sue

2012-01-01

For as long as time, struggling adolescent readers have filled classrooms and communities. In many cases, these functional aliterates typically could read, yet could not understand or evaluate text, provide relevant details, or support inferences about the written documents they had read. "Second Chance Reading" (SCR), an instructional…

Disabled and Unmarried? Marital Chances Among Disabled People in Nineteenth-Century Northern Sweden

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Helena Haage

2017-04-01

Full Text Available To marry and form a household of one’s own was the expected life course of most people in the nineteenth century, but little is known about whether individuals with disabilities shared the same demographic experience of marriage as non-disabled did. This study examines this issue by analyzing the marital chances of a group of disabled people—i.e. blind, deaf mute, crippled and with mental disabilities—compared with a non-disabled reference group. Our results show that about a quarter of the disabled individuals did marry, even though their marital propensities were significantly lower than those of non-disabled people. These propensities also differed by gender and type of disability. We suggest that the lower marital chances and the variation we found within the group of disabled people indicate the level of social exclusion they faced in society.

Maximizing the chances of detecting pathogenic leptospires in mammals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tulsiani, Suhella; Graham, G C; Dohnt, M F

2011-01-01

. In the earlier field investigation, serum, renal tissue and urine were collected from wild mammals, for the detection of pathogenic leptospires by culture, the microscopic agglutination test (MAT), real-time PCR and silver impregnation of smears. Although 27.6% of the rodents investigated were found leptospire....../ml, did not affect the viability or the detection of leptospires in culture, and is therefore unlikely to reduce the chances of isolating leptospires from an animal that has been euthanized with the compound. It appears that collecting multiple samples from each mammal being checked will improve...

An Accidental Scientist: Chance, Failure, Risk-Taking, and Mentoring.

Science.gov (United States)

McGrath, Patrick J

2018-04-06

I never intended to become a scientist. My career developed on the basis of chance happenings, repeated failure, the willingness to take risks and the acceptance and provision of mentoring. My career has included periods of difficulty and shifted back and forth between academic health centers and universities in Canada. Although I have been amply recognized for my successes, my greatest learning has come from my failures. My greatest satisfaction has been in the development, evaluation and dissemination of interventions. The combination of intellectual stimulation and emotional gratification has meant a rewarding career.

Biomechanics of Thoracolumbar Burst and Chance-Type Fractures during Fall from Height

Science.gov (United States)

Ivancic, Paul C.

2014-01-01

Study Design In vitro biomechanical study. Objective To investigate the biomechanics of thoracolumbar burst and Chance-type fractures during fall from height. Methods Our model consisted of a three-vertebra human thoracolumbar specimen (n = 4) stabilized with muscle force replication and mounted within an impact dummy. Each specimen was subjected to a single fall from an average height of 2.1 m with average velocity at impact of 6.4 m/s. Biomechanical responses were determined using impact load data combined with high-speed movie analyses. Injuries to the middle vertebra of each spinal segment were evaluated using imaging and dissection. Results Average peak compressive forces occurred within 10 milliseconds of impact and reached 40.3 kN at the ground, 7.1 kN at the lower vertebra, and 3.6 kN at the upper vertebra. Subsequently, average peak flexion (55.0 degrees) and tensile forces (0.7 kN upper vertebra, 0.3 kN lower vertebra) occurred between 43.0 and 60.0 milliseconds. The middle vertebra of all specimens sustained pedicle and endplate fractures with comminution, bursting, and reduced height of its vertebral body. Chance-type fractures were observed consisting of a horizontal split fracture through the laminae and pedicles extending anteriorly through the vertebral body. Conclusions We hypothesize that the compression fractures of the pedicles and vertebral body together with burst fracture occurred at the time of peak spinal compression, 10 milliseconds. Subsequently, the onset of Chance-type fracture occurred at 20 milliseconds through the already fractured and weakened pedicles and vertebral body due to flexion-distraction and a forward shifting spinal axis of rotation. PMID:25083357

Prognostic factors and survival of colorectal cancer in Kurdistan province, Iran: A population-based study (2009-2014).

Science.gov (United States)

Rasouli, Mohammad Aziz; Moradi, Ghobad; Roshani, Daem; Nikkhoo, Bahram; Ghaderi, Ebrahim; Ghaytasi, Bahman

2017-02-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) survival varies at individual and geographically level. This population-based study aimed to evaluating various factors affecting the survival rate of CRC patients in Kurdistan province.In a retrospective cohort study, patients diagnosed as CRC were collected through a population-based study from March 1, 2009 to 2014. The data were collected from Kurdistan's Cancer Registry database. Additional information and missing data were collected reference to patients' homes, medical records, and pathology reports. The CRC survival was calculated from the date of diagnosis to the date of cancer-specific death or the end of follow-up (cutoff date: October 2015). Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used for the univariate analysis of survival in various subgroups. The proportional-hazard model Cox was also used in order to consider the effects of different factors on survival including age at diagnosis, place of residence, marital status, occupation, level of education, smoking, economic status, comorbidity, tumor stage, and tumor grade.A total number of 335 patients affected by CRC were assessed and the results showed that 1- and 5-year survival rate were 87% and 33%, respectively. According to the results of Cox's multivariate analysis, the following factors were significantly related to CRC survival: age at diagnosis (≥65 years old) (HR 2.08, 95% CI: 1.17-3.71), single patients (HR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.10-2.40), job (worker) (HR 2.09, 95% CI: 1.22-3.58), educational level: diploma or below (HR 0.61, 95% CI: 0.39-0.92), wealthy economic status (HR 0.51, 95% CI: 0.31-0.82), tumor grade in poorly differentiated (HR 2.25, 95% CI: 1.37-3.69), and undifferentiated/anaplastic grade (HR 2.90, 95% CI: 1.67-4.98).We found that factors such as low education, inappropriate socioeconomic status, and high tumor grade at the time of disease diagnosis were effective in the poor survival of CRC patients in Kurdistan province; this, which need more attention.

Trends in Testicular Cancer Survival: A Large Population-based Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sui, Wilson; Morrow, David C; Bermejo, Carlos E; Hellenthal, Nicholas J

2015-06-01

To determine whether discrepancies in testicular cancer outcomes between Caucasians and non-Caucasians are changing over time. Although testicular cancer is more common in Caucasians, studies have shown that other races have worse outcomes. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry, we identified 29,803 patients diagnosed with histologically confirmed testicular cancer between 1983 and 2011. Of these, 12,650 patients (42%) had 10-year follow-up data. We stratified the patients by age group, stage, race, and year of diagnosis and assessed 10-year overall and cancer-specific survival in each cohort. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the relative contributions of each stratum to cancer-specific survival. Predicted overall 10-year survival of Caucasian patients with testicular cancer increased slightly from 88% to 89% over the period studied, whereas predicted cancer-specific 10-year survival dropped slightly from 94% to 93%. In contrast, non-Caucasian men demonstrated larger changes in 10-year overall (84%-86%) and cancer-specific (88%-91%) survival. On univariate analysis, race was significantly associated with testicular cancer death, with non-Caucasian men being 1.69 times more likely to die of testicular cancer than Caucasians (hazard ratio, 1.33-2.16; 95% confidence interval, testicular cancer. These data show a convergence in cancer-specific survival between racial groups over time, suggesting that diagnostic and treatment discrepancies may be improving for non-Caucasians. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival Patterns Among Newcomers To Franchising

OpenAIRE

Timothy Bates

1997-01-01

This study analyzes survival patterns among franchisee firms and establishments that began operations in 1986 and 1987. Differing methodologies and data bases are utilized to demonstrate that 1) franchises have higher survival rates than independents, and 2) franchises have lower survival rates than independent business formations. Analyses of corporate establishment data generate high franchisee survival rates relative to independents, while analyses of young firm data generate the opposite ...

SNRFCB: sub-network based random forest classifier for predicting chemotherapy benefit on survival for cancer treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Mingguang; He, Jianmin

2016-04-01

Adjuvant chemotherapy (CTX) should be individualized to provide potential survival benefit and avoid potential harm to cancer patients. Our goal was to establish a computational approach for making personalized estimates of the survival benefit from adjuvant CTX. We developed Sub-Network based Random Forest classifier for predicting Chemotherapy Benefit (SNRFCB) based gene expression datasets of lung cancer. The SNRFCB approach was then validated in independent test cohorts for identifying chemotherapy responder cohorts and chemotherapy non-responder cohorts. SNRFCB involved the pre-selection of gene sub-network signatures based on the mutations and on protein-protein interaction data as well as the application of the random forest algorithm to gene expression datasets. Adjuvant CTX was significantly associated with the prolonged overall survival of lung cancer patients in the chemotherapy responder group (P = 0.008), but it was not beneficial to patients in the chemotherapy non-responder group (P = 0.657). Adjuvant CTX was significantly associated with the prolonged overall survival of lung cancer squamous cell carcinoma (SQCC) subtype patients in the chemotherapy responder cohorts (P = 0.024), but it was not beneficial to patients in the chemotherapy non-responder cohorts (P = 0.383). SNRFCB improved prediction performance as compared to the machine learning method, support vector machine (SVM). To test the general applicability of the predictive model, we further applied the SNRFCB approach to human breast cancer datasets and also observed superior performance. SNRFCB could provide recurrent probability for individual patients and identify which patients may benefit from adjuvant CTX in clinical trials.

Scheduling Appliances with GA, TLBO, FA, OSR and Their Hybrids Using Chance Constrained Optimization for Smart Homes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zunaira Nadeem

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we design a controller for home energy management based on following meta-heuristic algorithms: teaching learning-based optimization (TLBO, genetic algorithm (GA, firefly algorithm (FA and optimal stopping rule (OSR theory. The principal goal of designing this controller is to reduce the energy consumption of residential sectors while reducing consumer’s electricity bill and maximizing user comfort. Additionally, we propose three hybrid schemes OSR-GA, OSR-TLBO and OSR-FA, by combining the best features of existing algorithms. We have also optimized the desired parameters: peak to average ratio, energy consumption, cost, and user comfort (appliance waiting time for 20, 50, 100 and 200 heterogeneous homes in two steps. In the first step, we obtain the optimal scheduling of home appliances implementing our aforementioned hybrid schemes for single and multiple homes while considering user preferences and threshold base policy. In the second step, we formulate our problem through chance constrained optimization. Simulation results show that proposed hybrid scheduling schemes outperformed for single and multiple homes and they shift the consumer load demand exceeding a predefined threshold to the hours where the electricity price is low thus following the threshold base policy. This helps to reduce electricity cost while considering the comfort of a user by minimizing delay and peak to average ratio. In addition, chance-constrained optimization is used to ensure the scheduling of appliances while considering the uncertainties of a load hence smoothing the load curtailment. The major focus is to keep the appliances power consumption within the power constraint, while keeping power consumption below a pre-defined acceptable level. Moreover, the feasible regions of appliances electricity consumption are calculated which show the relationship between cost and energy consumption and cost and waiting time.

Survival rate in nasopharyngeal carcinoma improved by high caseload volume: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ching-Chih; Hung, Shih-Kai; Huang, Tze-Ta; Lee, Moon-Sing; Su, Yu-Chieh; Chou, Pesus; Hsiao, Shih-Hsuan; Chiou, Wen-Yen; Lin, Hon-Yi; Chien, Sou-Hsin

2011-01-01

Positive correlation between caseload and outcome has previously been validated for several procedures and cancer treatments. However, there is no information linking caseload and outcome of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treatment. We used nationwide population-based data to examine the association between physician case volume and survival rates of patients with NPC. Between 1998 and 2000, a total of 1225 patients were identified from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Survival analysis, the Cox proportional hazards model, and propensity score were used to assess the relationship between 10-year survival rates and physician caseloads. As the caseload of individual physicians increased, unadjusted 10-year survival rates increased (p < 0.001). Using a Cox proportional hazard model, patients with NPC treated by high-volume physicians (caseload ≥ 35) had better survival rates (p = 0.001) after adjusting for comorbidities, hospital, and treatment modality. When analyzed by propensity score, the adjusted 10-year survival rate differed significantly between patients treated by high-volume physicians and patients treated by low/medium-volume physicians (75% vs. 61%; p < 0.001). Our data confirm a positive volume-outcome relationship for NPC. After adjusting for differences in the case mix, our analysis found treatment of NPC by high-volume physicians improved 10-year survival rate

Survival rate in nasopharyngeal carcinoma improved by high caseload volume: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chou Pesus

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Positive correlation between caseload and outcome has previously been validated for several procedures and cancer treatments. However, there is no information linking caseload and outcome of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC treatment. We used nationwide population-based data to examine the association between physician case volume and survival rates of patients with NPC. Methods Between 1998 and 2000, a total of 1225 patients were identified from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Survival analysis, the Cox proportional hazards model, and propensity score were used to assess the relationship between 10-year survival rates and physician caseloads. Results As the caseload of individual physicians increased, unadjusted 10-year survival rates increased (p p = 0.001 after adjusting for comorbidities, hospital, and treatment modality. When analyzed by propensity score, the adjusted 10-year survival rate differed significantly between patients treated by high-volume physicians and patients treated by low/medium-volume physicians (75% vs. 61%; p Conclusions Our data confirm a positive volume-outcome relationship for NPC. After adjusting for differences in the case mix, our analysis found treatment of NPC by high-volume physicians improved 10-year survival rate.

Teaching and Learning the Interplay between Chance and Determinism in Nonlinear Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Stavrou, Dimitrios; Duit, Reinders

2014-01-01

That the interplay of random and deterministic processes may result in both the limited predictability of nonlinear systems and the formation of structures seems to be a most valuable general insight into the nature of science. This study investigates the possibility of teaching and learning the interplay of chance and determinism in nonlinear…

Information Technology & Applications Corporation v. United States: An Interested Party's "Substantial Chance" at APA Standing

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Slicker, Christina

2003-01-01

.... Building on CICA's "interested party" definition with Information Technology's refinement of "substantial chance" rule, the Federal Circuit has effectively translated "APA standing" into the language...

The influence of printing parameters on cell survival rate and printability in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yu; Li, Yang; Mao, Shuangshuang; Sun, Wei; Yao, Rui

2015-11-02

Three-dimensional (3D) cell printing technology has provided a versatile methodology to fabricate cell-laden tissue-like constructs and in vitro tissue/pathological models for tissue engineering, drug testing and screening applications. However, it still remains a challenge to print bioinks with high viscoelasticity to achieve long-term stable structure and maintain high cell survival rate after printing at the same time. In this study, we systematically investigated the influence of 3D cell printing parameters, i.e. composition and concentration of bioink, holding temperature and holding time, on the printability and cell survival rate in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology. Rheological measurements were utilized to characterize the viscoelasticity of gelatin-based bioinks. Results demonstrated that the bioink viscoelasticity was increased when increasing the bioink concentration, increasing holding time and decreasing holding temperature below gelation temperature. The decline of cell survival rate after 3D cell printing process was observed when increasing the viscoelasticity of the gelatin-based bioinks. However, different process parameter combinations would result in the similar rheological characteristics and thus showed similar cell survival rate after 3D bioprinting process. On the other hand, bioink viscoelasticity should also reach a certain point to ensure good printability and shape fidelity. At last, we proposed a protocol for 3D bioprinting of temperature-sensitive gelatin-based hydrogel bioinks with both high cell survival rate and good printability. This research would be useful for biofabrication researchers to adjust the 3D bioprinting process parameters quickly and as a referable template for designing new bioinks.

Disparities in survival after Hodgkin lymphoma: a population-based study

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Keegan, Theresa H.M.; Clarke, Christina A.; Chang, Ellen T.; Shema, Sarah J.; Glaser, Sally L.

2009-01-01

Survival after Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is generally favorable, but may vary by patient demographic characteristics. The authors examined HL survival according to race/ethnicity and neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES), determined from residential census block group at diagnosis. For 12,492 classical HL patients ≥15 years diagnosed in California during 1988-2006 and followed through 2007, we determined risk of overall and HL-specific death using Cox proportional hazards regression; analyses were stratified by age and Ann Arbor stage. Irrespective of disease stage, patients with lower neighborhood SES had worse overall and HL-specific survival than patients with higher SES. Patients with the lowest quintile of neighborhood SES had a 64% (patients aged 15-44 years) and 36% (≥45 years) increased risk of HL-death compared to patients with the highest quintile of SES; SES results were similar for overall survival. Even after adjustment for neighborhood SES, blacks and Hispanics had increased risks of HL-death 74% and 43% (15-44 years) and 40% and 17% (≥45 years), respectively, higher than white patients. The racial/ethnic differences in survival were evident for all stages of disease. These data provide evidence for substantial, and probably remediable, racial/ethnic and neighborhood SES disparities in HL outcomes. PMID:19557531

David Bohm : causality and chance, letters to three women

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

The letters transcribed in this book were written by physicist David Bohm to three close female acquaintances in the period 1950 to 1956. They provide a background to his causal interpretation of quantum mechanics and the Marxist philosophy that inspired his scientific work in quantum theory, probability and statistical mechanics. In his letters, Bohm reveals the ideas that led to his ground breaking book Causality and Chance in Modern Physics. The political arguments as well as the acute personal problems contained in these letters help to give a rounded, human picture of this leading scientist and twentieth century thinker.

IPO survival in a reputational market

OpenAIRE

Espenlaub, Susanne; Khurshed, Arif; Mohamed, Abdulkadir

2012-01-01

We examine IPO survival in a 'reputational' market, the Alternative Investment Market (AIM), where principle-based regulation pivots on the role of a regulatory agent, the nominated advisor (Nomad) to the IPO company. We find that Nomad reputation has a significant impact on IPO survival. IPOs backed by reputable Nomads 'survive longer (by about two years) than those backed by other Nomads. We also find that survival rates of AIM IPOs are broadly comparable to those of North American IPOs. Wh...

Job insecurity, chances on the labour market and decline in self-rated health in a representative sample of the Danish workforce

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rugulies, R.; Aust, B.; Burr, H.; Bultmann, U.

Objective: To investigate if job insecurity and poor labour market chances predict a decline in self-rated health in the Danish workforce. Design: Job insecurity, labour market chances, self-rated health and numerous covariates were measured in 1809 women and 1918 men who responded to a

Captive-housed male cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii) form naturalistic coalitions: measuring associations and calculating chance encounters.

Science.gov (United States)

Chadwick, Carly L; Rees, Paul A; Stevens-Wood, Barry

2013-01-01

Cheetahs are known to reproduce poorly in captivity and research suggests that the reasons for this are behavioral, rather than physiological. In the wild, male cheetahs remain in stable groups, or coalitions, throughout their lifetime. Appropriate social group housing is important in enhancing welfare and reproductive success in captivity and this study examined the effect of changes in social group composition on the behavior of four male cheetahs: two siblings and two half siblings. During the study, the cheetahs were housed both in pairs and as a group of four, before one male was relocated. The remaining cheetahs were then housed in a trio. Affiliative behaviors were frequently shown within pairs and overt aggression was seldom observed. Association indices were calculated for each cheetah pair and corrected for chance encounters based on data generated from a Monte Carlo simulation. The indices showed that two coalitions existed before the relocated male departed. Following the relocation of one of the half siblings, the remaining cheetahs appeared to form a coalition of three, as the indices of association between the unrelated male and the siblings increased and allogrooming between unrelated individuals was observed. The findings of this study indicate that natural social groupings of male cheetahs can be successfully replicated in captivity, which could potentially improve the chances of reproductive success when they are introduced to female cheetahs. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pregnancy chances on an IVF/ICSI waiting list: a national prospective cohort study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eijkemans, M.J.; Lintsen, A.M.E.; Hunault, C.C.; Bouwmans, C.A.; Hakkaart, L.; Braat, D.D.M.; Habbema, J.D.F.

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of IVF over expectant management has been proven only for bilateral tubal occlusion. We aimed to estimate the chance of pregnancy without treatment for IVF patients, using data on the waiting period before the start of IVF. METHODS: A prospective cohort study included

Reproductive tactics optimizing the survival of the offspring of Cichlasoma orientale (Perciformes: Cichlidae).

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Spíndola Linhares, Jussiara Candeira; Resende Manna, Luisa; Mazzoni, Rosana; Ferreira Rezende, Carla; Feitosa Silva, José Roberto

2014-09-01

High mortality rates have been observed in Teleost during early developmental stages, as well as great variations in reproductive tactics, which are related to adaptations towards environmental conditions and ecological niches for which different species have a specific response. The objective of this study was to describe reproductive tactics related to the survival of Cichlasoma orientale offspring, including aspects of body size, parental care, fecundity, oocyte size and spawning patterns. Samples were performed monthly from August 2011 to July 2013, in lentic and lotic environments at Curu river basin, Brazilian Northeastern semiarid region. Individual behavior (n = 13) was observed underwater for over 50 hours by ad libitum sampling and focal-animal sampling. Collected individuals (males n = 185, females n = 95) were evaluated regarding the standard length, batch fecundity, oocyte size and spawning pattern. In females with mature ovaries, oocyte groups at different developmental stages were observed, these cells were counted and measured, and fecundity was estimated by the gravimetric method. Our results showed that the species displayed biparental care behavior and, on average, males were larger than females. Based on 46 ovaries, the average batch fecundity was 2,052-849 (range: 254-3 389). Standard length and batch fecundity were positively correlated, but no correlation was found between oocyte size and standard length. The maximum diameter observed in the most developed oocytes was 1.8 mm. The observed distribution of oocyte size classes indicated synchronous oocyte development in three groups: pre- vitellogenic, vitellogenic and mature, showing that C. orientale is a multiple spawner. Differences in the amount of oocytes among the three groups were observed, with the most developed group showing the smallest number of oocytes. The combination of low fecundity and large egg size is characteristic of demersal spawners due to a greater environmental

Reproductive tactics optimizing the survival of the offspring of Cichlasoma orientale (Perciformes: Cichlidae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jussiara Candeira Spíndola Linhares

2014-09-01

Full Text Available High mortality rates have been observed in Teleost during early developmental stages, as well as great variations in reproductive tactics, which are related to adaptations towards environmental conditions and ecological niches for which different species have a specific response. The objective of this study was to describe reproductive tactics related to the survival of Cichlasoma orientale offspring, including aspects of body size, parental care, fecundity, oocyte size and spawning patterns. Samples were performed monthly from August 2011 to July 2013, in lentic and lotic environments at Curu river basin, Brazilian Northeastern semiarid region. Individual behavior (n=113 was observed underwater for over 50 hours by ad libitum sampling and focal-animal sampling. Collected individuals (males n=185, females n=95 were evaluated regarding the standard length, batch fecundity, oocyte size and spawning pattern. In females with mature ovaries, oocyte groups at different developmental stages were observed, these cells were counted and measured, and fecundity was estimated by the gravimetric method. Our results showed that the species displayed biparental care behavior and, on average, males were larger than females. Based on 46 ovaries, the average batch fecundity was 2 052±849 (range: 254-3 389. Standard length and batch fecundity were positively correlated, but no correlation was found between oocyte size and standard length. The maximum diameter observed in the most developed oocytes was 1.8mm. The observed distribution of oocyte size classes indicated synchronous oocyte development in three groups: previtellogenic, vitellogenic and mature, showing that C. orientale is a multiple spawner. Differences in the amount of oocytes among the three groups were observed, with the most developed group showing the smallest number of oocytes. The combination of low fecundity and large egg size is characteristic of demersal spawners due to a greater

The High Court's lost chance in medical negligence: Tabet v Gett (2010) 240 CLR 537.

Science.gov (United States)

Faunce, Thomas; McEwan, Alexandra

2010-12-01

In 2010 the High Court of Australia in Tabet v Gett (2010) 240 CLR 537 determined an appeal in a medical negligence case concerning a six-year-old girl who had presented to a major paediatric hospital with symptoms over several weeks of headaches and vomiting after a recent history of chicken pox. The differential diagnosis was varicella, meningitis or encephalitis and two days later, after she deteriorated neurologically, she received a lumbar puncture. Three days later she suffered a seizure and irreversible brain damage. A CT scan performed at that point showed a brain tumour. As Australia does not have a no-fault system providing compensation to cover the long-term care required for such a condition, the girl (through her parents and lawyers) sued her treating physician. She alleged that, because a cerebral CT scan was not performed when clinically indicated after the diagnosis of meningitis or encephalitis and before the lumbar puncture, she had "lost the chance" to have her brain tumour treated before she sustained permanent brain damage. She succeeded at first instance, but lost on appeal. The High Court also rejected her claim, holding unanimously that there were no policy reasons to allow recovery of damages based on possible (less than 50%) "loss of a chance" of a better medical outcome. The court held that the law of torts in Australia required "all or nothing" proof that physical injury was caused or contributed to by a negligent party. The High Court, however, did not exclude loss of chance as forming the substance of a probable (greater than 50%) claim in medical negligence in some future case. In the meantime, patients injured in Australia as a result of possible medical negligence (particularly in the intractable difficult instances of late diagnosis) must face the injustice of the significant day-to-day care needs of victims being carried by family members and the taxpayer-funded public hospital system. The High Court in Tabet v Gett again provides

Disparities in Survival with Bystander CPR following Cardiopulmonary Arrest Based on Neighborhood Characteristics

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Nina Thakkar Rivera

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The American Heart Association reports the annual incidence of out-of-hospital cardiopulmonary arrests (OHCA is greater than 300,000 with a survival rate of 9.5%. Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR saves one life for every 30, with a 10% decrease in survival associated with every minute of delay in CPR initiation. Bystander CPR and training vary widely by region. We conducted a retrospective study of 320 persons who suffered OHCA in South Florida over 25 months. Increased survival, overall and with bystander CPR, was seen with increasing income (p=0.05, with a stronger disparity between low- and high-income neighborhoods (p=0.01 and p=0.03, resp.. Survival with bystander CPR was statistically greater in white- versus black-predominant neighborhoods (p=0.04. Increased survival, overall and with bystander CPR, was seen with high- versus low-education neighborhoods (p=0.03. Neighborhoods with more high school age persons displayed the lowest survival. We discovered a significant disparity in OHCA survival within neighborhoods of low-income, black-predominance, and low-education. Reduced survival was seen in neighborhoods with larger populations of high school students. This group is a potential target for training, and instruction can conceivably change survival outcomes in these neighborhoods, closing the gap, thus improving survival for all.

Prediction of survival by texture-based automated quantitative assessment of regional disease patterns on CT in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Min; Seo, Joon Beom; Oh, Sang Young; Lee, Sang Min; Kim, Namkug; Kim, Tae Hoon; Song, Jin Woo

2018-01-01

To retrospectively investigate whether the baseline extent and 1-year change in regional disease patterns on CT can predict survival of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). A total of 144 IPF patients with CT scans at the time of diagnosis and 1 year later were included. The extents of five regional disease patterns were quantified using an in-house texture-based automated system. The fibrosis score was defined as the sum of the extent of honeycombing and reticular opacity. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the independent predictors of survival. A total of 106 patients (73.6%) died during the follow-up period. Univariate analysis revealed that age, baseline forced vital capacity, total lung capacity, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, six-minute walk distance, desaturation , honeycombing, reticular opacity, fibrosis score, and interval changes in honeycombing and fibrosis score were significantly associated with survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, desaturation, fibrosis score and interval change in fibrosis score were significant independent predictors of survival (p = 0.003, <0.001, 0.001 and <0.001). The C-index for the developed model was 0.768. Texture-based, automated CT quantification of fibrosis can be used as an independent predictor of survival in IPF patients. (orig.)

Prediction of survival by texture-based automated quantitative assessment of regional disease patterns on CT in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang Min; Seo, Joon Beom; Oh, Sang Young; Lee, Sang Min; Kim, Namkug [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Tae Hoon; Song, Jin Woo [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2018-03-15

To retrospectively investigate whether the baseline extent and 1-year change in regional disease patterns on CT can predict survival of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). A total of 144 IPF patients with CT scans at the time of diagnosis and 1 year later were included. The extents of five regional disease patterns were quantified using an in-house texture-based automated system. The fibrosis score was defined as the sum of the extent of honeycombing and reticular opacity. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the independent predictors of survival. A total of 106 patients (73.6%) died during the follow-up period. Univariate analysis revealed that age, baseline forced vital capacity, total lung capacity, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, six-minute walk distance, desaturation{sub ,} honeycombing, reticular opacity, fibrosis score, and interval changes in honeycombing and fibrosis score were significantly associated with survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, desaturation, fibrosis score and interval change in fibrosis score were significant independent predictors of survival (p = 0.003, <0.001, 0.001 and <0.001). The C-index for the developed model was 0.768. Texture-based, automated CT quantification of fibrosis can be used as an independent predictor of survival in IPF patients. (orig.)

Prognostic factors and survival in patients with radiation-related second malignant neoplasms following radiotherapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mian Xi

Full Text Available PURPOSE: To analyze the clinicopathological characteristics, treatment modalities, and potential prognostic factors of radiation-related second malignant neoplasms (SMNs in a large group of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC cases. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Institutional electronic medical records of 39,118 patients with NPC treated by definitive radiotherapy between February 1964 and December 2003 were reviewed. A total of 247 patients with confirmed SMN attributable to radiotherapy were included. RESULTS: Median latency between radiotherapy for NPC and the diagnosis of SMN was 9.5 years (range, 3.1-36.8 years. Squamous cell carcinoma was the most common histologic type, followed by fibrosarcoma and adenocarcinoma. Median progression-free survival and overall survival (OS of the 235 patients who underwent treatment were 17.3 months and 28.5 months, respectively. The 5-year OS rates were 42.9%, 23.7%, and 0% for the surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy groups, respectively. The independent prognostic factors associated with survival were sex, histologic type, and treatment modality in both the early stage subgroup and the advanced stage subgroup of SMN. CONCLUSIONS: Sex, histologic type, and treatment modality were the significant prognostic factors for SMN. Complete resection offers the best chance for long-term survival. In select patients with locally advanced and unresectable SMN, reirradiation should be strongly considered as a curative option.

Multimorbidities of asthma, allergies, and airway illnesses in childhood: Chance or not chance?

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wei; Huang, Chen; Wang, Xueying; Cai, Jiao; Hu, Yu; Zou, Zhijun; Weschler, Louise B; Shen, Li; Sundell, Jan

2017-09-01

We investigated patterns of multimorbidities among asthma, allergies, and respiratory illnesses in preschool children. We investigated multimorbidities of lifetime asthma, allergic rhinitis, eczema, food allergy, pneumonia, and ear infections; and multimorbidities of current (in the last year before the survey) wheeze, dry cough, rhinitis, eczema, and common cold during childhood. We further analyzed whether prevalences of these multimorbidities were due to chance. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 72 kindergartens of Shanghai, China. Parents of preschool children were surveyed with a modified ISAAC questionnaire. Observed prevalences (OPs), expected prevalences (EPs), absolute excess comorbidities (AECs), and relative excess comorbidities (RECs) of various combinations of illnesses were calculated to indicate whether the combined illnesses were related. We analyzed questionnaires for children aged 4-6 years, whose 13,335 questionnaires were the majority of the total 15,266 returned questionnaires (response rate: 85.3%). The studied illnesses were common. For children who had more than three lifetime or current illnesses, OPs tended to be higher than EPs. Most OPs and EPs were higher in boys than in girls, and were higher in children with a family history of atopy (FHA) than in children without FHA. AECs and RECs between boys and girls as well as between children with and without FHA were substantially different. Our findings suggest that multimorbidities among childhood asthma, allergies, and respiratory illnesses are likely not random, but rather share etiology. Specific patterns of childhood asthma multimorbidities perhaps differ between boys and girls and between children with and without FHA.

Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study

Science.gov (United States)

Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Design Population based cohort study. Setting England. Population More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Main outcome measures Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. Results One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Conclusions Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. PMID:29540358

The global energy context -- chances and challenges for the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, G.

2002-01-01

Energy is the driving force towards economic and social development. Global demand for energy will keep growing for many years to come due to ongoing, although reduced population growth, and due to the needs of up to 2000 million people who are still without access to commercial energy. To meet this growing demand for energy, all options have to be kept open, with fossil fuels, nuclear and hydro dominating the energy mix for the next decades, and 'new' renewables coming in only slowly. Considering the resulting strain on the environment, and looking at existing disparities in energy supply, the next few decades will not be free of tensions. A turning point may appear in the mid 21st century with world population coming to a halt, distinctly improved energy efficiency in the Developing World, and with new technologies available. Thus, mainly challenges will determine the first half of the century, whereas chances are on hand for the second half of the century - if we act now. The single most important instrument to meet these challenges and to take advantage of the chances is a concentrated move towards energy efficiency and innovation, supported by market reform and appropriate regulation. (author)

Celebrating Professor Britton Chance (1913-2010), a founding father of redox sciences.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohnishi, Tomoko; Zweier, Jay L

2011-12-01

Renowned great scientist and redox pioneer, Dr. Britton Chance, closed his 97 years of legendary life on November 16, 2010. He was the Eldridge Reeves Johnson emeritus professor of biophysics, physical chemistry, and radiologic physics at the University of Pennsylvania. He achieved fame as a prominent biophysicist and developer of highly innovative biomedical instrumentation. His scientific career stretched over almost one century and he achieved many scientific and engineering breakthroughs throughout his long prolific career. The advances that he and his colleagues achieved led to great strides in our understanding of biology and disease. He was among the first scientists to recognize the importance of free radicals and reactive oxygen species in mitochondrial metabolism and cells as well as to map pathways of redox biology and signaling. Dr. Chance served as a pioneer and inspiration to generations of researchers in the fields of redox biochemistry, metabolism, and disease. He will be missed by all of us in the research community but will live on through his monumental scientific accomplishments, the novel instrumentation he developed, as well as the many scientists whom he trained and influenced.

Conditional Melanoma Cancer Survival in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ray M. Merrill

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Beyond relative survival, which indicates the likelihood that patients will not die from causes associated with their cancer, conditional relative survival probabilities provide further useful prognostic information to cancer patients, tailored to the time already survived from diagnosis. This study presents conditional relative survival for melanoma patients in the United States, diagnosed during 2000–2008 and followed through 2012. Analyses are based on 62,803 male and 50,261 female cases in population-based cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute. Five-year relative survival estimates are presented for melanoma patients who have already survived one, two, three, four, or five years after the initial diagnosis. Five- and ten-year relative survival decreases with age, stage at diagnosis, and is lower among males, Blacks, and Hispanics. Five-year conditional relative survival improves with each year already survived. The potential for improvement in five-year conditional relative survival is greatest for older age, males, Blacks, Hispanics, and in later staged cases. For local disease, five-year conditional relative survival was significantly lower in ages greater than 65 years and in Blacks. It was significantly higher in females, non-Hispanics, and married individuals. Age had a greater inverse relationship with five-year survival in later staged disease. A similar result occurred for females and married individuals. In contrast, non-Hispanics had better five-year survival if diagnosed with local or regional disease, but not distant disease.

Survival of falling robots

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Jonathan M.; Arkin, Ronald C.

1992-01-01

As mobile robots are used in more uncertain and dangerous environments, it will become important to design them so that they can survive falls. In this paper, we examine a number of mechanisms and strategies that animals use to withstand these potentially catastrophic events and extend them to the design of robots. A brief survey of several aspects of how common cats survive falls provides an understanding of the issues involved in preventing traumatic injury during a falling event. After outlining situations in which robots might fall, a number of factors affecting their survival are described. From this background, several robot design guidelines are derived. These include recommendations for the physical structure of the robot as well as requirements for the robot control architecture. A control architecture is proposed based on reactive control techniques and action-oriented perception that is geared to support this form of survival behavior.

Survival of falling robots

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Jonathan M.; Arkin, Ronald C.

1992-02-01

As mobile robots are used in more uncertain and dangerous environments, it will become important to design them so that they can survive falls. In this paper, we examine a number of mechanisms and strategies that animals use to withstand these potentially catastrophic events and extend them to the design of robots. A brief survey of several aspects of how common cats survive falls provides an understanding of the issues involved in preventing traumatic injury during a falling event. After outlining situations in which robots might fall, a number of factors affecting their survival are described. From this background, several robot design guidelines are derived. These include recommendations for the physical structure of the robot as well as requirements for the robot control architecture. A control architecture is proposed based on reactive control techniques and action-oriented perception that is geared to support this form of survival behavior.

An open simulation approach to identify chances and limitations for vulnerable road user (VRU) active safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Seiniger, Patrick; Bartels, Oliver; Pastor, Claus; Wisch, Marcus

2013-01-01

It is commonly agreed that active safety will have a significant impact on reducing accident figures for pedestrians and probably also bicyclists. However, chances and limitations for active safety systems have only been derived based on accident data and the current state of the art, based on proprietary simulation models. The objective of this article is to investigate these chances and limitations by developing an open simulation model. This article introduces a simulation model, incorporating accident kinematics, driving dynamics, driver reaction times, pedestrian dynamics, performance parameters of different autonomous emergency braking (AEB) generations, as well as legal and logical limitations. The level of detail for available pedestrian accident data is limited. Relevant variables, especially timing of the pedestrian appearance and the pedestrian's moving speed, are estimated using assumptions. The model in this article uses the fact that a pedestrian and a vehicle in an accident must have been in the same spot at the same time and defines the impact position as a relevant accident parameter, which is usually available from accident data. The calculations done within the model identify the possible timing available for braking by an AEB system as well as the possible speed reduction for different accident scenarios as well as for different system configurations. The simulation model identifies the lateral impact position of the pedestrian as a significant parameter for system performance, and the system layout is designed to brake when the accident becomes unavoidable by the vehicle driver. Scenarios with a pedestrian running from behind an obstruction are the most demanding scenarios and will very likely never be avoidable for all vehicle speeds due to physical limits. Scenarios with an unobstructed person walking will very likely be treatable for a wide speed range for next generation AEB systems.

Annual Running Festival a Chance for the Frederick Community to Stretch Its Legs | Poster

Science.gov (United States)

May will soon be here, ushering in the season of cookouts, sunny days—and the annual Frederick Running Festival. Organized by Corrigan Sports Enterprises, the two-day event gives athletes of all backgrounds chances for exercise and friendly competition against their fellow community members.

Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Exarchakou, Aimilia; Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

2018-03-14

To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Population based cohort study. England. More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Kappa statistic to measure agreement beyond chance in free-response assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Carpentier, Marc; Combescure, Christophe; Merlini, Laura; Perneger, Thomas V

2017-04-19

The usual kappa statistic requires that all observations be enumerated. However, in free-response assessments, only positive (or abnormal) findings are notified, but negative (or normal) findings are not. This situation occurs frequently in imaging or other diagnostic studies. We propose here a kappa statistic that is suitable for free-response assessments. We derived the equivalent of Cohen's kappa statistic for two raters under the assumption that the number of possible findings for any given patient is very large, as well as a formula for sampling variance that is applicable to independent observations (for clustered observations, a bootstrap procedure is proposed). The proposed statistic was applied to a real-life dataset, and compared with the common practice of collapsing observations within a finite number of regions of interest. The free-response kappa is computed from the total numbers of discordant (b and c) and concordant positive (d) observations made in all patients, as 2d/(b + c + 2d). In 84 full-body magnetic resonance imaging procedures in children that were evaluated by 2 independent raters, the free-response kappa statistic was 0.820. Aggregation of results within regions of interest resulted in overestimation of agreement beyond chance. The free-response kappa provides an estimate of agreement beyond chance in situations where only positive findings are reported by raters.

Helping mothers survive bleeding after birth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Ostergaard, Doris

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate "Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth" (HMS BAB) simulation-based training in a low-resource setting. DESIGN: Educational intervention study. SETTING: Rural referral hospital in Northern Tanzania. POPULATION: Clinicians, nurse-midwives, medical attendants, and ambul......OBJECTIVE: To evaluate "Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth" (HMS BAB) simulation-based training in a low-resource setting. DESIGN: Educational intervention study. SETTING: Rural referral hospital in Northern Tanzania. POPULATION: Clinicians, nurse-midwives, medical attendants...

First recovery in anorexia nervosa patients in the long-term course: a discrete-time survival analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Herzog, W; Schellberg, D; Deter, H C

1997-02-01

The results of a 12-year follow-up study of occurrence and timing of first recovery in 69 hospitalized patients with severe anorexia nervosa (AN) are presented. For the first time discrete-time survival analysis methods were used to determine the likelihood of recovery in AN patients. Furthermore, predictors gleaned from pretreatment-posttreatment studies of long-term outcome in AN could be evaluated as to their effect on a change in the time course structure of the likelihood of first recovery. Results show that AN condition did not improve until after 6 years after the first inpatient treatment in 50% of patients. However, a restricter-type AN and low serum creatinine levels were predictors for earlier recovery. One specific effect was that AN patients who show purging behavior in combination with additional social disturbances have a lower chance of recovering. The use of discrete-time survival analysis methodology in further prospective studies will contribute to the development of more tailored treatment of AN, which also takes the individual phase of illness and specific aspects of the symptomatology into account.

Second Chance Education Matters! Income Trajectories of Poorly Educated Non-Nordics in Sweden

Science.gov (United States)

Nordlund, Madelene; Bonfanti, Sara; Strandh, Mattias

2015-01-01

In this study we examine the long-term impact of second chance education (SCE) on incomes of poorly educated individuals who live in Sweden but were not born in a Nordic country, using data on income changes from 1992 to 2003 compiled by Statistics Sweden. Ordinary Least Squares regression analyses show that participation in SCE increased the work…

Chances for earth-like planets and life around metal-poor stars

OpenAIRE

Zinnecker, Hans

2003-01-01

We discuss the difficulties of forming earth-like planets in metal-poor environments, such as those prevailing in the Galactic halo (Pop II), the Magellanic Clouds, and the early universe. We suggest that, with less heavy elements available, terrestrial planets will be smaller size and lower mass than in our solar system (solar metallicity). Such planets may not be able to sustain life as we know it. Therefore, the chances of very old lifeforms in the universe are slim, and a threshold metall...

Project selection problem under uncertainty: An application of utility theory and chance constrained programming to a real case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reza Hosnavi Atashgah

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Selecting from a pool of interdependent projects under certainty, when faced with resource constraints, has been studied well in the literature of project selection problem. After briefly reviewing and discussing popular modeling approaches for dealing with uncertainty, this paper proposes an approach based on chance constrained programming and utility theory for a certain range of problems and under some practical assumptions. Expected Utility Programming, as the proposed modeling approach, will be compared with other well-known methods and its meaningfulness and usefulness will be illustrated via two numerical examples and one real case.

Poor survival in rheumatoid arthritis associated with bronchiectasis: a family-based cohort study.

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Xavier Puéchal

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Diffuse bronchiectasis (DB may occur in rheumatoid arthritis (RA. CFTR (cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator mutations predispose RA patients to DB, but the prognosis of RA-associated DB (RA-DB is unclear. METHODS: We report long-term mortality data from a nationwide family-based association study of patients with RA only, DB only or RA-DB. We assessed mortality as a function of clinical characteristics and CF/CFTR-RD (CFTR-related disorders mutations in 137 subjects from 24 kindreds. Potential risk factors were investigated by Cox proportional-hazard analysis with shared Gaussian random effects to account for within-family correlations. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11 years after inclusion, 18 patients died, mostly from cardiorespiratory causes. Survival was significantly lower for RA-DB patients than for unaffected relatives and for patients with RA or DB only. RA patients with DB had also a poorer prognosis in terms of survival after RA diagnosis (HR, 8.6; 95% CI, 1.5-48.2; P = 0.014 and from birth (HR, 9.6; 95% CI, 1.1-81.7; P = 0.039. Early onset of DB (HR, 15.4; 95% CI, 2.1-113.2; P = 0.007 and CF/CFTR-RD mutation (HR, 7.2; 95% CI, 1.4-37.1; P = 0.018 were associated with poorer survival in patients with RA-DB. Thus, CF/CFTR-RD mutations in RA patients with early-onset DB defined a subgroup of high-risk patients with higher mortality rates (log-rank test P = 1.28×10(-5. CONCLUSION: DB is associated with poorer survival in patients with RA. Early-onset DB and CFTR mutations are two markers that identify RA patients at a high risk of death, for whom future therapeutic interventions should be designed and evaluated.

First- and second-chance proton emission in the interactions of fast neutrons with 92Mo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qaim, S.M.; Wolfle, R.; Strohmaier, B.

1989-01-01

Cross sections were measured radiochemically for the 92 Mo(n,p) 92 Nb m and 92 Mo(n,n'p +pn+d) 91 Nb m reactions over the neutron energy range of 9.0--10.6 MeV, and for the latter reaction also between 12.6 and 14.4 MeV. Use was made of high-resolution γ-ray and x-ray spectroscopy. Statistical-model calculations taking into account precompound effects were performed for fast neutron induced reactions on 92 Mo. The calculational results agree well with the experimental data on emitted proton spectra as well as on the excitation functions of various reaction channels. The second-chance proton emission is significant for incident neutron energies above 11 MeV; between 13 and 14 MeV it is comparable to the first-chance proton emission

Cancer survival in Europe 1999-2007 by country and age: results of EUROCARE--5-a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

De Angelis, Roberta; Sant, Milena; Coleman, Michel P; Francisci, Silvia; Baili, Paolo; Pierannunzio, Daniela; Trama, Annalisa; Visser, Otto; Brenner, Hermann; Ardanaz, Eva; Bielska-Lasota, Magdalena; Engholm, Gerda; Nennecke, Alice; Siesling, Sabine; Berrino, Franco; Capocaccia, Riccardo

2014-01-01

Cancer survival is a key measure of the effectiveness of health-care systems. EUROCARE-the largest cooperative study of population-based cancer survival in Europe-has shown persistent differences between countries for cancer survival, although in general, cancer survival is improving. Major changes in cancer diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation occurred in the early 2000s. EUROCARE-5 assesses their effect on cancer survival in 29 European countries. In this retrospective observational study, we analysed data from 107 cancer registries for more than 10 million patients with cancer diagnosed up to 2007 and followed up to 2008. Uniform quality control procedures were applied to all datasets. For patients diagnosed 2000-07, we calculated 5-year relative survival for 46 cancers weighted by age and country. We also calculated country-specific and age-specific survival for ten common cancers, together with survival differences between time periods (for 1999-2001, 2002-04, and 2005-07). 5-year relative survival generally increased steadily over time for all European regions. The largest increases from 1999-2001 to 2005-07 were for prostate cancer (73.4% [95% CI 72.9-73.9] vs 81.7% [81.3-82.1]), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (53.8% [53.3-54.4] vs 60.4% [60.0-60.9]), and rectal cancer (52.1% [51.6-52.6] vs 57.6% [57.1-58.1]). Survival in eastern Europe was generally low and below the European mean, particularly for cancers with good or intermediate prognosis. Survival was highest for northern, central, and southern Europe. Survival in the UK and Ireland was intermediate for rectal cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, skin melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, but low for kidney, stomach, ovarian, colon, and lung cancers. Survival for lung cancer in the UK and Ireland was much lower than for other regions for all periods, although results for lung cancer in some regions (central and eastern Europe) might be affected by overestimation. Survival usually decreased with age, although

Winning at Pocker and Games of Chance Winning at Pocker and Games of Chance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anita Flanders Rebelo

2008-04-01

Full Text Available It's the modern consumer mind - compete to eat, save to the grave, throw to the wind to win! Never the game that's im portant - it's the beer , the fag. . . and if you're broke it's just the "odds" to turn you on. "Socrates didn't play dice games. He drank a lot. And when he was drunk he would go watch the game and give advice. It was because of bad advice that he was eventually sentenced to death. . . Back then it was more fun. Nobody knew anything about odds. It was just put down your money, you toss the dice, you laugh, you take another drink." - to Cassidy,it's knowing the odds that's put everybody on pot. Rack Cassidy's Winning at Poker and Games of Chance lampoons the illogic logic of modern "instructed" man. It is a disturbingly funny caricature of a nonsensical consumer's mind trying to ratio nalize the game of life, and what comes out is "hash" - not meat and potatoes. The book is high philosophical slapstick comedy ila Charlie Chaplin on paper in today's scene. To Cassidy, consumer thinking has made intellectual nitwits of us. We're always ex plaining in detail about what we don't have the slightest real understanding of, but we go on and on like automats spitting out words and words which in the long run make no sense to our__ selves and much less to the other poor broken down human calculat ing machines - especially when we try to give logic to our il/logical vices and fears.

IMPROVING STUDENTS’ EMPLOYABILITY CHANCES - FOREIGN LANGUAGE TRAINERS’ ROLE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucia-Mihaela GROSU

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the need for educators in business schools to become more involved in discovering and cultivating not only hard skills, but also soft skills, in order to prepare students to meet the requirements of their potential employers. At the level of business undergraduate studies in Romania, educational activities focusing on soft skills (such as intercultural communication, positive attitude, flexibility become essential for increasing students’ employability chances. Foreign language teachers who use a communicative teaching method are specifically involved in such activities. But do these courses cover the entire range of top soft skills required by business executives? What is done in the classroom and what can be improved? The present study will attempt to find the answers to these questions and to formulate suggestions for a more focused approach to soft skills development through foreign language courses.

Distribution Locational Marginal Pricing for Optimal Electric Vehicle Charging through Chance Constrained Mixed-Integer Programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Oren, Shmuel S.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a distribution locational marginal pricing (DLMP) method through chance constrained mixed-integer programming designed to alleviate the possible congestion in the future distribution network with high penetration of electric vehicles (EVs). In order to represent the stochastic...

The global energy context: Chances and challenges for the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, G.

2000-01-01

Energy is the driving force towards economic and social development. Global demand for energy will keep growing for many years to come due to ongoing, although reduced population growth, and due to the needs of up to 2 billion people who are still without access to commercial energy. To meet this growing demand for energy, all options have to be kept open, with fossil fuels, nuclear and hydro dominating the energy mix for the next decades, and 'new' renewables coming in only slowly. Considering the resulting strain on the environment, and looking at existing disparities in energy supply, the next few decades will not be free of tensions. A turning point may appear in the mid 21st century with world population coming to a halt, distinctly improved energy efficiency also in the Developing World, and with new technologies available. Thus, mainly challenges will determine the first half of the century, whereas chances are on hand for the second half of the century - if we act now. The single most important instrument to meet these challenges and to take advantage of the chances is a concentrated move towards energy efficiency and innovation, supported by market reform and appropriate regulation. (author)

WE-H-BRA-08: A Monte Carlo Cell Nucleus Model for Assessing Cell Survival Probability Based On Particle Track Structure Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, B [Northwestern Memorial Hospital, Chicago, IL (United States); Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (Georgia); Wang, C [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (Georgia)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To correlate the damage produced by particles of different types and qualities to cell survival on the basis of nanodosimetric analysis and advanced DNA structures in the cell nucleus. Methods: A Monte Carlo code was developed to simulate subnuclear DNA chromatin fibers (CFs) of 30nm utilizing a mean-free-path approach common to radiation transport. The cell nucleus was modeled as a spherical region containing 6000 chromatin-dense domains (CDs) of 400nm diameter, with additional CFs modeled in a sparser interchromatin region. The Geant4-DNA code was utilized to produce a particle track database representing various particles at different energies and dose quantities. These tracks were used to stochastically position the DNA structures based on their mean free path to interaction with CFs. Excitation and ionization events intersecting CFs were analyzed using the DBSCAN clustering algorithm for assessment of the likelihood of producing DSBs. Simulated DSBs were then assessed based on their proximity to one another for a probability of inducing cell death. Results: Variations in energy deposition to chromatin fibers match expectations based on differences in particle track structure. The quality of damage to CFs based on different particle types indicate more severe damage by high-LET radiation than low-LET radiation of identical particles. In addition, the model indicates more severe damage by protons than of alpha particles of same LET, which is consistent with differences in their track structure. Cell survival curves have been produced showing the L-Q behavior of sparsely ionizing radiation. Conclusion: Initial results indicate the feasibility of producing cell survival curves based on the Monte Carlo cell nucleus method. Accurate correlation between simulated DNA damage to cell survival on the basis of nanodosimetric analysis can provide insight into the biological responses to various radiation types. Current efforts are directed at producing cell

Combining Skype with Blogging: A Chance to Stop Reinforcement of Stereotypes in Intercultural Exchanges?

Science.gov (United States)

Kirschner, L. Lynette

2015-01-01

This papers looks into whether combining Skype, blogging and class discussions reinforces or refutes stereotypes. The hypothesis was that some students do not have an adequate chance to reflect on their skype experience and course content. To see if students have made improvements in reducing stereotypes, the Standards for Foreign Language…

Conditional survival of cancer patients: an Australian perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Xue

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimated conditional survival for cancer patients diagnosed at different ages and disease stage provides important information for cancer patients and clinicians in planning follow-up, surveillance and ongoing management. Methods Using population-based cancer registry data for New South Wales Australia, we estimated conditional 5-year relative survival for 11 major cancers diagnosed 1972–2006 by time since diagnosis and age and stage at diagnosis. Results 193,182 cases were included, with the most common cancers being prostate (39,851, female breast (36,585 and colorectal (35,455. Five-year relative survival tended to increase with increasing years already survived and improvement was greatest for cancers with poor prognosis at diagnosis (lung or pancreas and for those with advanced stage or older age at diagnosis. After surviving 10 years, conditional 5-year survival was over 95% for 6 localised, 6 regional, 3 distant and 3 unknown stage cancers. For the remaining patient groups, conditional 5-year survival ranged from 74% (for distant stage bladder cancer to 94% (for 4 cancers at different stages, indicating that they continue to have excess mortality 10–15 years after diagnosis. Conclusion These data provide important information for cancer patients, based on age and stage at diagnosis, as they continue on their cancer journey. This information may also be used by clinicians as a tool to make more evidence-based decisions regarding follow-up, surveillance, or ongoing management according to patients' changing survival expectations over time.

Chance of adhesion formation after laparoscopic salpingo-ovariolysis: is there a place for second-look laparoscopy?

Science.gov (United States)

Alborzi, Saeed; Motazedian, Shahdokht; Parsanezhad, Mohammad E

2003-05-01

To evaluate the chance of adhesion formation after laparoscopic salpingo-ovariolysis and determine the efficacy of early second-look laparoscopy (SLL). Prospective, randomized study (Canadian Task Force classification I). Shiraz University hospitals. Ninety women with mean duration of infertility of 7.2 years. Operative laparoscopy, with early SLL with adhesiolysis in 46 (group 1) and no SLL in 44 women (group 2). Adnexal adhesions were evaluated according to American Society for Reproductive Medicine adhesion classification. Separation of newly reformed adhesions was performed at the time of SLL. Patients were followed for a year after operation without other infertility treatment. At the time of operation in group 1, adnexal adhesions were graded as severe (class D) in 19 women, moderate (class C) in 31, mild (class B) in 28, and minimal (class A) in 14. Respective figures in group 2 were 10, 30, 34, and 14. After salpingo-ovariolysis these figures were 12, 10, 20, and 50 in group 1 and 6, 14, 17, and 51 in group 2. In group 1 in whom early second-look laparoscopy was performed, at the start of the operation these figures were 17, 20, 21, and 34, and after operation 12, 8, 20, and 52, respectively. There were 11 term pregnancies in group 1 and 15 in group 2. No women with severe adhesions in either group conceived. In group 1, chances of term pregnancy were 18.75% for those with moderate adhesions, 35.71% for women with mild adhesions, and 42.86% in patients with minimal adhesions. Respective figures in group 2 were 26.67%, 41.18%, and 57.14%. The chance of moderate and severe adhesion reformation after laparoscopic salpingo-ovariolysis was 40.2%. Although separation of these adhesions could be performed more easily at the time of early SLL, the chance of pregnancy did not increase compared with that in patients who did not undergo SLL.

Comparative study of chance coincidence correction in measuring 223Ra and 224Ra by delay coincidence method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan Yongjun; Huang Derong; Zhou Jianliang; Qiu Shoukang

2013-01-01

The delay coincidence measurement of 220 Rn and 219 Rn has been proved to be a valid indirect method for measuring 224 Ra and 223 Ra extracted from natural water, which can provide valuable information on estuarine/ocean mixing, submarine groundwater discharge, and water/soil interactions. In practical operation chance coincidence correction must be considered, mostly Moore's correction method, but Moore's and Giffin's methods were incomplete in some ways. In this paper the modification (method 1) and a new chance coincidence correction formula (method 2) were provided. Experiments results are presented to demonstrate the conclusions. The results show that precision is improved while counting rate is less than 70 min- 1 . (authors)

Chance and necessity in the selection of nucleic acid catalysts

Science.gov (United States)

Lorsch, J. R.; Szostak, J. W.

1996-01-01

In Tom Stoppard's famous play [Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead], the ill-fated heroes toss a coin 101 times. The first 100 times they do so the coin lands heads up. The chance of this happening is approximately 1 in 10(30), a sequence of events so rare that one might argue that it could only happen in such a delightful fiction. Similarly rare events, however, may underlie the origins of biological catalysis. What is the probability that an RNA, DNA, or protein molecule of a given random sequence will display a particular catalytic activity? The answer to this question determines whether a collection of such sequences, such as might result from prebiotic chemistry on the early earth, is extremely likely or unlikely to contain catalytically active molecules, and hence whether the origin of life itself is a virtually inevitable consequence of chemical laws or merely a bizarre fluke. The fact that a priori estimates of this probability, given by otherwise informed chemists and biologists, ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-50), inspired us to begin to address the question experimentally. As it turns out, the chance that a given random sequence RNA molecule will be able to catalyze an RNA polymerase-like phosphoryl transfer reaction is close to 1 in 10(13), rare enough, to be sure, but nevertheless in a range that is comfortably accessible by experiment. It is the purpose of this Account to describe the recent advances in combinatorial biochemistry that have made it possible for us to explore the abundance and diversity of catalysts existing in nucleic acid sequence space.

Cancer survival analysis using semi-supervised learning method based on Cox and AFT models with L1/2 regularization.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yong; Chai, Hua; Liu, Xiao-Ying; Xu, Zong-Ben; Zhang, Hai; Leung, Kwong-Sak

2016-03-01

One of the most important objectives of the clinical cancer research is to diagnose cancer more accurately based on the patients' gene expression profiles. Both Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) and accelerated failure time model (AFT) have been widely adopted to the high risk and low risk classification or survival time prediction for the patients' clinical treatment. Nevertheless, two main dilemmas limit the accuracy of these prediction methods. One is that the small sample size and censored data remain a bottleneck for training robust and accurate Cox classification model. In addition to that, similar phenotype tumours and prognoses are actually completely different diseases at the genotype and molecular level. Thus, the utility of the AFT model for the survival time prediction is limited when such biological differences of the diseases have not been previously identified. To try to overcome these two main dilemmas, we proposed a novel semi-supervised learning method based on the Cox and AFT models to accurately predict the treatment risk and the survival time of the patients. Moreover, we adopted the efficient L1/2 regularization approach in the semi-supervised learning method to select the relevant genes, which are significantly associated with the disease. The results of the simulation experiments show that the semi-supervised learning model can significant improve the predictive performance of Cox and AFT models in survival analysis. The proposed procedures have been successfully applied to four real microarray gene expression and artificial evaluation datasets. The advantages of our proposed semi-supervised learning method include: 1) significantly increase the available training samples from censored data; 2) high capability for identifying the survival risk classes of patient in Cox model; 3) high predictive accuracy for patients' survival time in AFT model; 4) strong capability of the relevant biomarker selection. Consequently, our proposed semi

'Luck, chance, and happenstance? Perceptions of success and failure amongst fixed-term academic staff in UK higher education'.

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Loveday, Vik

2017-09-07

What does it mean to attribute success to 'luck', but failure to personal deficiency? In 2015/16, more than 34 per cent of academic employees in UK higher education institutions were employed on temporary contracts, and the sector itself has undergone a substantial transformation in recent years in terms of expansion, measurement, and marketization. Based on two waves of interviews conducted with fixed-term academic employees at different career stages, the article explores the narrativization of success and failure amongst staff working at the 'sharp end' of the so-called neoliberal academy. Arguing that precarious employment situations precipitate the feeling of being 'out of control', the majority of the participants' narratives were characterized by a distinct lack of agency. The paper explores the recourse to notions of chance and the consolidation of 'luck' as an explanatory factor in accounting for why good things happen; however, in tandem with this inclination is the tendency to individualize failure when expectations have been thwarted. While accounts of fixed-term work are suffused with notions of chance and fortune, 'luck' remains an under-researched concept within sociology. The article thus concludes by considering what the analysis of 'luck' might offer for a fuller, politicized understanding of processes at work in the contemporary academy. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2017.

Survival As a Quality Metric of Cancer Care: Use of the National Cancer Data Base to Assess Hospital Performance.

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Shulman, Lawrence N; Palis, Bryan E; McCabe, Ryan; Mallin, Kathy; Loomis, Ashley; Winchester, David; McKellar, Daniel

2018-01-01

Survival is considered an important indicator of the quality of cancer care, but the validity of different methodologies to measure comparative survival rates is less well understood. We explored whether the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) could serve as a source of unadjusted and risk-adjusted cancer survival data and whether these data could be used as quality indicators for individual hospitals or in the aggregate by hospital type. The NCDB, an aggregate of > 1,500 hospital cancer registries, was queried to analyze unadjusted and risk-adjusted hazards of death for patients with stage III breast cancer (n = 116,787) and stage IIIB or IV non-small-cell lung cancer (n = 252,392). Data were analyzed at the individual hospital level and by hospital type. At the hospital level, after risk adjustment, few hospitals had comparative risk-adjusted survival rates that were statistically better or worse. By hospital type, National Cancer Institute-designated comprehensive cancer centers had risk-adjusted survival ratios that were statistically significantly better than those of academic cancer centers and community hospitals. Using the NCDB as the data source, survival rates for patients with stage III breast cancer and stage IIIB or IV non-small-cell lung cancer were statistically better at National Cancer Institute-designated comprehensive cancer centers when compared with other hospital types. Compared with academic hospitals, risk-adjusted survival was lower in community hospitals. At the individual hospital level, after risk adjustment, few hospitals were shown to have statistically better or worse survival, suggesting that, using NCDB data, survival may not be a good metric to determine relative quality of cancer care at this level.

Breast cancer molecular subtypes and survival in a hospital-based sample in Puerto Rico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz, Ana Patricia; Frías, Orquidea; Pérez, Javier; Cabanillas, Fernando; Martínez, Lisa; Sánchez, Carola; Capó-Ramos, David E; González-Keelan, Carmen; Mora, Edna; Suárez, Erick

2013-01-01

Information on the impact of hormone receptor status subtypes in breast cancer (BC) prognosis is still limited for Hispanics. We aimed to evaluate the association of BC molecular subtypes and other clinical factors with survival in a hospital-based female population of BC cases in Puerto Rico. We analyzed 663 cases of invasive BC diagnosed between 2002 and 2005. Information on HER-2/neu (HER-2) overexpression, estrogen (ER), and progesterone (PR) receptor status and clinical characteristics were retrieved from hospitals cancer registries and record review. Survival probabilities by covariates of interest were described using the Kaplan–Meier estimators. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess factors associated with risk of BC death. Overall, 17.3% of BC cases were triple-negative (TN), 61.8% were Luminal-A, 13.3% were Luminal-B, and 7.5% were HER-2 overexpressed. In the multivariate Cox model, among patients with localized stage, women with TN BC had higher risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 2.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29–5.12) as compared to those with Luminal-A status, after adjusting for age at diagnosis. In addition, among women with regional/distant stage at diagnosis, those with TN BC (HR: 5.48, 95% CI: 2.63–11.47) and those HER-2+, including HER-2 overexpressed and Luminal-B, (HR: 2.73, 95% CI:1.30–5.75) had a higher mortality. This is the most comprehensive epidemiological study to date on the impact of hormone receptor expression subtypes in BC survival in Puerto Rico. Consistent to results in other populations, the TN subtype and HER-2+ tumors were associated with decreased survival

Treatment algorithm based on the multivariate survival analyses in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with trans-arterial chemoembolization.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hasmukh J Prajapati

Full Text Available To develop the treatment algorithm from multivariate survival analyses (MVA in patients with Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC C (advanced Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients treated with Trans-arterial Chemoembolization (TACE.Consecutive unresectable and non-tranplantable patients with advanced HCC, who received DEB TACE were studied. A total of 238 patients (mean age, 62.4yrs was included in the study. Survivals were analyzed according to different parameters from the time of the 1st DEB TACE. Kaplan Meier and Cox Proportional Hazard model were used for survival analysis. The SS was constructed from MVA and named BCLC C HCC Prognostic (BCHP staging system (SS.Overall median survival (OS was 16.2 months. In HCC patients with venous thrombosis (VT of large vein [main portal vein (PV, right or left PV, hepatic vein, inferior vena cava] (22.7% versus small vein (segmental/subsegmental PV (9.7% versus no VT had OSs of 6.4 months versus 20 months versus 22.8 months respectively (p<0.001. On MVA, the significant independent prognostic factors (PFs of survival were CP class, eastern cooperative oncology group (ECOG performance status (PS, single HCC<5 cm, site of VT, metastases, serum creatinine and serum alpha-feto protein. Based on these PFs, the BCHP staging system was constructed. The OSs of stages I, II and III were 28.4 months, 11.8 months and 2.4 months accordingly (p<0.001. The treatment plan was proposed according to the different stages.On MVA of patients with advanced HCC treated with TACE, significant independent prognostic factors (PFs of survival were CP class, ECOG PS, single HCC<5 cm or others, site of VT, metastases, serum creatinine and serum alpha-feto protein. New BCHP SS was proposed based on MVA data to identify the suitable advanced HCC patients for TACE treatments.

Do health complaints in adolescence negatively predict the chance of entering tertiary education in young adulthood?

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Låftman, Sara B; Magnusson, Charlotta

2017-12-01

Self-reported psychological and psychosomatic health complaints, such as nervousness, sadness, headache and stomach-ache, are common among adolescents, particularly among girls, and studies suggest that the prevalence has risen among adolescent girls during the last few decades. However, only a limited number of studies have investigated the potential long-term consequences of such health complaints. The aim of the current study was to assess whether psychological and psychosomatic health complaints in adolescence predict the chance of entering tertiary education in young adulthood among women and men. The data used are from the Swedish Young-LNU, which is based on a nationally representative sample with self-reported survey information from adolescents aged 10-18 years in 2000 and from the same individuals at ages 20-28 in 2010 ( n=783). Information was also collected from parents and from official registers. Linear probability models showed that self-reported psychological complaints in adolescence were associated with a lower chance of having entered tertiary education 10 years later. This association was accounted for by differences in grade point average (GPA), suggesting that GPA may mediate the association between psychological complaints and later education. The pattern was similar for both genders. Furthermore, among men, psychosomatic complaints in adolescence were significantly associated with a lower likelihood of having entered tertiary education 10 years later when adjusting for GPA and social class in adolescence. A similar but non-significant tendency was found among women. The findings suggest that health complaints in adolescence may have long-term consequences in terms of lower educational attainment.

Helping mothers survive bleeding after birth: an educational of simulation-based training in a low resource setting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nelissen, E.J.T.; Ersdal, H.; Ostergaard, D.; Mduma, E.; Broerse, J.E.W.; Evjen-Olsen, B.; van Roosmalen, J.; Stekelenburg, J.

2014-01-01

Objective To evaluate "Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth" (HMS BAB) simulation-based training in a low-resource setting. Design Educational intervention study. Setting Rural referral hospital in Northern Tanzania. Population Clinicians, nurse-midwives, medical attendants, and ambulance

A Teaching and Learning Sequence about the Interplay of Chance and Determinism in Nonlinear Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Stavrou, D.; Duit, R.; Komorek, M.

2008-01-01

A teaching and learning sequence aimed at introducing upper secondary school students to the interplay between chance and determinism in nonlinear systems is presented. Three experiments concerning nonlinear systems (deterministic chaos, self-organization and fractals) and one experiment concerning linear systems are introduced. Thirty upper…

Rank-based testing of equal survivorship based on cross-sectional survival data with or without prospective follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Kwun Chuen Gary; Qin, Jing

2015-10-01

Existing linear rank statistics cannot be applied to cross-sectional survival data without follow-up since all subjects are essentially censored. However, partial survival information are available from backward recurrence times and are frequently collected from health surveys without prospective follow-up. Under length-biased sampling, a class of linear rank statistics is proposed based only on backward recurrence times without any prospective follow-up. When follow-up data are available, the proposed rank statistic and a conventional rank statistic that utilizes follow-up information from the same sample are shown to be asymptotically independent. We discuss four ways to combine these two statistics when follow-up is present. Simulations show that all combined statistics have substantially improved power compared with conventional rank statistics, and a Mantel-Haenszel test performed the best among the proposal statistics. The method is applied to a cross-sectional health survey without follow-up and a study of Alzheimer's disease with prospective follow-up. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global variations in cancer survival. Study Group on Cancer Survival in Developing Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Sankaranarayanan, R; Swaminathan, R; Black, R J

1996-12-15

Population-based cancer registries from Algeria, China, Costa Rica, Cuba, India, the Philippines, and Thailand are collaborating with the International Agency for Research on Cancer in a study of cancer survival in developing countries. Comparisons with the SEER program results of the National Cancer Institute in the United States, and the EUROCARE study of survival in European countries revealed considerable differences in the survival of patients with certain tumors associated with intensive chemotherapeutic treatment regimes (Hodgkin's disease and testicular tumors), more modest differences in the survival of patients with tumors for which early diagnosis and treatment confer an improved prognosis (carcinomas of the large bowel, breast, and cervix), and only slight differences for tumors associated with poor prognosis (carcinomas of the stomach, pancreas, and lung). With limited resources to meet the challenge of the increasing incidence of cancer expected in the next few decades, health authorities in developing countries should be aware of the importance of investing in a range of cancer control activities, including primary prevention and early detection programs as well as treatment.

The effect of children on men's and women's chances of repartnering in a European context

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ivanova, K.; Kalmijn, M.; Uunk, W.

2013-01-01

This work examines what role children play in the re-partnering process in five European countries (Norway, France, Germany, Romania, and the Russian Federation) by addressing the following research questions: (1) To what extent do men and women differ in their re-partnering chances?; (2) Can gender

10 year survival after breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in early breast cancer in the Netherlands : a population-based study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Maaren, Marissa C.; de Munck, Linda; de Bock, Geertruida H.; Jobsen, Jan J.; van Dalen, Thijs; Linn, Sabine C.; Poortmans, Philip; Strobbe, Luc J. A.; Siesling, Sabine

BACKGROUND: Investigators of registry-based studies report improved survival for breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in early breast cancer. As these studies did not present long-term overall and breast cancer-specific survival, the effect of breast-conserving

10 year survival after breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in early breast cancer in the Netherlands: a population-based study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maaren, M.C. van; Munck, L.; Bock, G.H. de; Jobsen, J.J.; Dalen, T. van; Linn, S.C.; Poortmans, P.; Strobbe, L.J.A.; Siesling, S.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Investigators of registry-based studies report improved survival for breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in early breast cancer. As these studies did not present long-term overall and breast cancer-specific survival, the effect of breast-conserving

Multivariate analyses to assess the effects of surgeon and hospital volume on cancer survival rates: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun-Ming Chang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Positive results between caseloads and outcomes have been validated in several procedures and cancer treatments. However, there is limited information available on the combined effects of surgeon and hospital caseloads. We used nationwide population-based data to explore the association between surgeon and hospital caseloads and survival rates for major cancers. METHODOLOGY: A total of 11,677 patients with incident cancer diagnosed in 2002 were identified from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Survival analysis, the Cox proportional hazards model, and propensity scores were used to assess the relationship between 5-year survival rates and different caseload combinations. RESULTS: Based on the Cox proportional hazard model, cancer patients treated by low-volume surgeons in low-volume hospitals had poorer survival rates, and hazard ratios ranged from 1.3 in head and neck cancer to 1.8 in lung cancer after adjusting for patients' demographic variables, co-morbidities, and treatment modality. When analyzed using the propensity scores, the adjusted 5-year survival rates were poorer for patients treated by low-volume surgeons in low-volume hospitals, compared to those treated by high-volume surgeons in high-volume hospitals (P<0.005. CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for differences in the case mix, cancer patients treated by low-volume surgeons in low-volume hospitals had poorer 5-year survival rates. Payers may implement quality care improvement in low-volume surgeons.

Conspirators in a Neo-Liberal Agenda? Adult Educators in Second-Chance Private Training Establishments

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Judith

2008-01-01

This paper presents the findings of a qualitative study that explored the impact of neo-liberal policy and ideology on educators and directors working in second-chance Private Training Establishments (PTEs) which were created at the height of the neo-liberal reforms in New Zealand. By examining the experiences of 14 educators and directors in four…

A track-event theory of cell survival

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Besserer, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe [Zuerich Univ. (Switzerland). Inst. of Physics; Radiotherapy Hirslanden, Zuerich (Switzerland)

2015-09-01

When fractionation schemes for hypofractionation and stereotactic body radiotherapy are considered, a reliable cell survival model at high dose is needed for calculating doses of similar biological effectiveness. In this work a simple model for cell survival which is valid also at high dose is developed from Poisson statistics. An event is defined by two double strand breaks (DSB) on the same or different chromosomes. An event is always lethal due to direct lethal damage or lethal binary misrepair by the formation of chromosome aberrations. Two different mechanisms can produce events: one-track events (OTE) or two-track-events (TTE). The target for an OTE is always a lethal event, the target for an TTE is one DSB. At least two TTEs on the same or different chromosomes are necessary to produce an event. Both, the OTE and the TTE are statistically independent. From the stochastic nature of cell kill which is described by the Poisson distribution the cell survival probability was derived. It was shown that a solution based on Poisson statistics exists for cell survival. It exhibits exponential cell survival at high dose and a finite gradient of cell survival at vanishing dose, which is in agreement with experimental cell studies. The model fits the experimental data nearly as well as the three-parameter formula of Hug-Kellerer and is only based on two free parameters. It is shown that the LQ formalism is an approximation of the model derived in this work. It could be also shown that the derived model predicts a fractionated cell survival experiment better than the LQ-model. It was shown that cell survival can be described with a simple analytical formula on the basis of Poisson statistics. This solution represents in the limit of large dose the typical exponential behavior and predicts cell survival after fractionated dose application better than the LQ-model.

A track-event theory of cell survival

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besserer, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe

2015-01-01

When fractionation schemes for hypofractionation and stereotactic body radiotherapy are considered, a reliable cell survival model at high dose is needed for calculating doses of similar biological effectiveness. In this work a simple model for cell survival which is valid also at high dose is developed from Poisson statistics. An event is defined by two double strand breaks (DSB) on the same or different chromosomes. An event is always lethal due to direct lethal damage or lethal binary misrepair by the formation of chromosome aberrations. Two different mechanisms can produce events: one-track events (OTE) or two-track-events (TTE). The target for an OTE is always a lethal event, the target for an TTE is one DSB. At least two TTEs on the same or different chromosomes are necessary to produce an event. Both, the OTE and the TTE are statistically independent. From the stochastic nature of cell kill which is described by the Poisson distribution the cell survival probability was derived. It was shown that a solution based on Poisson statistics exists for cell survival. It exhibits exponential cell survival at high dose and a finite gradient of cell survival at vanishing dose, which is in agreement with experimental cell studies. The model fits the experimental data nearly as well as the three-parameter formula of Hug-Kellerer and is only based on two free parameters. It is shown that the LQ formalism is an approximation of the model derived in this work. It could be also shown that the derived model predicts a fractionated cell survival experiment better than the LQ-model. It was shown that cell survival can be described with a simple analytical formula on the basis of Poisson statistics. This solution represents in the limit of large dose the typical exponential behavior and predicts cell survival after fractionated dose application better than the LQ-model.

Breast cancer data analysis for survivability studies and prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, Nagesh; Hagenbuchner, Markus; Win, Khin Than; Yang, Jack

2018-03-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting females worldwide. Breast cancer survivability prediction is challenging and a complex research task. Existing approaches engage statistical methods or supervised machine learning to assess/predict the survival prospects of patients. The main objectives of this paper is to develop a robust data analytical model which can assist in (i) a better understanding of breast cancer survivability in presence of missing data, (ii) providing better insights into factors associated with patient survivability, and (iii) establishing cohorts of patients that share similar properties. Unsupervised data mining methods viz. the self-organising map (SOM) and density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) is used to create patient cohort clusters. These clusters, with associated patterns, were used to train multilayer perceptron (MLP) model for improved patient survivability analysis. A large dataset available from SEER program is used in this study to identify patterns associated with the survivability of breast cancer patients. Information gain was computed for the purpose of variable selection. All of these methods are data-driven and require little (if any) input from users or experts. SOM consolidated patients into cohorts of patients with similar properties. From this, DBSCAN identified and extracted nine cohorts (clusters). It is found that patients in each of the nine clusters have different survivability time. The separation of patients into clusters improved the overall survival prediction accuracy based on MLP and revealed intricate conditions that affect the accuracy of a prediction. A new, entirely data driven approach based on unsupervised learning methods improves understanding and helps identify patterns associated with the survivability of patient. The results of the analysis can be used to segment the historical patient data into clusters or subsets, which share common variable values and

Marital status, treatment, and survival in patients with glioblastoma multiforme: a population based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Susan M; Barker, Fred G

2005-11-01

Social factors influence cancer treatment choices, potentially affecting patient survival. In the current study, the authors studied the interrelations between marital status, treatment received, and survival in patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GM), using population-based data. The data source was the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Public Use Database, 1988-2001, 2004 release, all registries. Multivariate logistic, ordinal, and Cox regression analyses adjusted for demographic and clinical variables were used. Of 10,987 patients with GM, 67% were married, 31% were unmarried, and 2% were of unknown marital status. Tumors were slightly larger at the time of diagnosis in unmarried patients (49% of unmarried patients had tumors larger than 45 mm vs. 45% of married patients; P = 0.004, multivariate analysis). Unmarried patients were less likely to undergo surgical resection (vs. biopsy; 75% of unmarried patients vs. 78% of married patients) and were less likely to receive postoperative radiation therapy (RT) (70% of unmarried patients vs. 79% of married patients). On multivariate analysis, the odds ratio (OR) for resection (vs. biopsy) in unmarried patients was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.79-0.98; P = 0.02), and the OR for RT in unmarried patients was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.62-0.77; P Unmarried patients more often refused both surgical resection and RT. Unmarried patients who underwent surgical resection and RT were found to have a shorter survival than similarly treated married patients (hazard ratio for unmarried patients, 1.10; P = 0.003). Unmarried patients with GM presented with larger tumors, were less likely to undergo both surgical resection and postoperative RT, and had a shorter survival after diagnosis when compared with married patients, even after adjustment for treatment and other prognostic factors. (c) 2005 American Cancer Society.

A new chance-constrained DEA model with birandom input and output data

OpenAIRE

Tavana, M.; Shiraz, R. K.; Hatami-Marbini, A.

2013-01-01

The purpose of conventional Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is to evaluate the performance of a set of firms or Decision-Making Units using deterministic input and output data. However, the input and output data in the real-life performance evaluation problems are often stochastic. The stochastic input and output data in DEA can be represented with random variables. Several methods have been proposed to deal with the random input and output data in DEA. In this paper, we propose a new chance-...

Enhancing Students' Critical Awareness in a Second Chance School in Greece: Reality or Wishful Thinking?

Science.gov (United States)

Efstathiou, Ioannis

2009-01-01

This paper is about a case study investigating into a Second Chance School in Greece as an institution for raising students' social awareness along the principles of critical pedagogy. Through the prism of symbolic interactionism, students' and teachers' negotiated perspectives formulating school and classroom culture reveal that students'…

10 year survival after breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in early breast cancer in the Netherlands : a population-based study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Maaren, Marissa C.; de Munck, Linda; de Bock, Geertruida H.; Jobsen, Jan J.; van Dalen, Thijs; Linn, Sabine C.; Poortmans, Philip; Strobbe, Luc J A; Siesling, Sabine

Background Investigators of registry-based studies report improved survival for breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in early breast cancer. As these studies did not present long-term overall and breast cancer-specific survival, the effect of breast-conserving surgery

David Adler Lectureship Award: A Chance to Grow

Science.gov (United States)

Canfield, Paul

2014-03-01

Having a chance to grow has been a vital, key, aspect to my research career. A successful condensed matter, new materials group thrives when it can have multiple make-measure-think cycles running in parallel and series. The ability to explore phase space and design, discover and grow new compounds is the starting point for many research projects and, sometimes, new fields. In this talk I want to provide an overview of several of the motivations that can lead to sample growth and also provide some examples of how new materials can lead to the intellectual / technical growth of a group as well. Examples will be drawn, as time allows, from work on magnetic, non-magnetic, low-Tc, and high Tc superconductors as well as heavy Fermions, spin-glasses and quasicrystals. Much of this work was supported by the US DOE, Office of Basic Energy Science, Division of Materials Sciences and Engineering, under Contract No. DE-AC02-07CH11358.

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Guyot, Patricia; Ades, A E; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Welton, Nicky J

2012-02-01

The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

Comparison of continuous versus categorical tumor measurement-based metrics to predict overall survival in cancer treatment trials

Science.gov (United States)

An, Ming-Wen; Mandrekar, Sumithra J.; Branda, Megan E.; Hillman, Shauna L.; Adjei, Alex A.; Pitot, Henry; Goldberg, Richard M.; Sargent, Daniel J.

2011-01-01

Purpose The categorical definition of response assessed via the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors has documented limitations. We sought to identify alternative metrics for tumor response that improve prediction of overall survival. Experimental Design Individual patient data from three North Central Cancer Treatment Group trials (N0026, n=117; N9741, n=1109; N9841, n=332) were used. Continuous metrics of tumor size based on longitudinal tumor measurements were considered in addition to a trichotomized response (TriTR: Response vs. Stable vs. Progression). Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for treatment arm and baseline tumor burden, were used to assess the impact of the metrics on subsequent overall survival, using a landmark analysis approach at 12-, 16- and 24-weeks post baseline. Model discrimination was evaluated using the concordance (c) index. Results The overall best response rates for the three trials were 26%, 45%, and 25% respectively. While nearly all metrics were statistically significantly associated with overall survival at the different landmark time points, the c-indices for the traditional response metrics ranged from 0.59-0.65; for the continuous metrics from 0.60-0.66 and for the TriTR metrics from 0.64-0.69. The c-indices for TriTR at 12-weeks were comparable to those at 16- and 24-weeks. Conclusions Continuous tumor-measurement-based metrics provided no predictive improvement over traditional response based metrics or TriTR; TriTR had better predictive ability than best TriTR or confirmed response. If confirmed, TriTR represents a promising endpoint for future Phase II trials. PMID:21880789

Utilization pattern and survival outcomes of adjuvant therapies in high-grade nonretroperitoneal abdominal soft tissue sarcoma: A population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, William Ross; Chokshi, Ravi; Jabbour, Salma K; DeLaney, Thomas F; Mahmoud, Omar

2018-02-01

Nonretroperitoneal abdominal soft tissue sarcoma (NRA-STS) is a rare disease with limited data supporting its management. Our study aimed to reveal the utilization patterns of adjuvant therapy and its potential survival benefits using the National Cancer Data Base. The analysis included patients with resected high-grade NRA-STS. Chi-square analysis was used to evaluate distribution of patient and tumor-related factors within treatment groups. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards model were utilized to evaluate overall survival according to treatment approach. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the impact of these factors on patients' outcome. Matched propensity score analysis was implemented to control for imbalance of confounding variables. At median follow-up of 49 months, 5-year overall survival improved from 46% without adjuvant radiation therapy to 52% (P = 0.009) with radiotherapy delivery with a 30% reduction in hazard of death (95% confidence interval = 0.58-0.84). On multivariate analysis, age <50, tumor <8 cm, negative margins and radiotherapy delivery were significant predictors of improved survival. Chemotherapy was not associated with significant survival improvement (Hazard Ratios [HR]: 0.89, P = 0.28). Adjuvant radiotherapy was associated with improved survival in high-grade NRA-STS. Chemotherapy was not associated with a survival improvement; however, further studies are needed to refine treatment strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Class Differentials in Getting Parental Assistance for Seeking a Second Chance of Getting into University: An Illustration of Community-College Students in Hong Kong

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Yi-Lee

2017-01-01

While a class gap remains in obtaining a degree despite an expansion of higher education, a variety of second chances have become available. How class matters in receiving parental assistance for seeking a second chance is of increasing importance to understanding educational inequality in an altered context of higher education, but it is…

Survival Processing and the Stroop Task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephanie A. Kazanas

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This study was designed to investigate the impact of survival processing with a novel task for this paradigm: the Stroop color-naming task. As the literature is mixed with regard to task generalizability, with survival processing promoting better memory for words, but not better memory for faces or paired associates, these types of task investigations are important to a growing field of research. Using the Stroop task provides a unique contribution, as identifying items by color is an important evolutionary adaptation and not specific to humans as is the case with word recall. Our results indicate that survival processing, with its accompanying survival-relevance rating task, remains the best mnemonic strategy for word memory. However, our results also indicate that presenting the survival passage does not motivate better color-naming performance than color-naming alone. In addition, survival processing led to a larger amount of Stroop interference, though not significantly larger than the other conditions. Together, these findings suggest that considering one’s survival when performing memory and attention-based tasks does not enhance cognitive performance generally, although greater allocation of attentional resources to color-incongruent concrete objects could be considered adaptive. These findings support the notion that engaging in deeper processing via survival-relevance ratings may preserve these words across a variety of experimental manipulations.

Parental hopes, interventions, and survival of neonates with trisomy 13 and trisomy 18.

Science.gov (United States)

Janvier, Annie; Farlow, Barbara; Barrington, Keith J

2016-09-01

Trisomy 13 and 18 are life-limiting conditions for which a palliative approach is frequently recommended. The objective of this study was to examine parental goals/decisions, the length of life of their child and factors associated with survival. Parents of children who lived with trisomy 13 or 18 that were part of English-speaking social networks were invited to participate in a questionnaire study. Participants answered questions about their hopes/goals, decisions regarding neonatal interventions, and the duration of their children's lives. The participants were 332 parents who answered questions about their 272 children (87% response rate based on site visits; 67% on invitations sent). When parents were asked about their hope after the diagnosis, the main themes invoked by parents were the following: meet their child alive (80% of parents with a prenatal diagnosis), spend some time as a family (72%), bring their child home (52%), and give their child a good life (66%). Parents wanted to give them a chance, but also reported their fears were medical complexity, pain and/or life in the hospital (61%). Healthcare providers recommended comfort care at birth to all parents. Life-sustaining interventions "as for any other child" was chosen as a plan of care by 25% of parents. Of the 216 children with full trisomy, 69% were discharged home after birth and 40% lived >1 y. The presence of a prenatal diagnosis was the strongest independent factor negatively associated with longevity: 36% of children with a prenatal diagnosis lived survival (P care at birth consisted of limited interventions, whereas after a postnatal diagnosis (median age of 6 days) it consisted of various interventions, including oxygen, ventilation, tube feeding and intravenous fluids, complicating the analysis. In conclusion, the goals of parents of children with trisomy 13 or 18 were to meet their child, be discharged home and be a family. Having a postnatal diagnosis was the independent factor

Visibly marked and microchipped lost dogs have a higher chance to find their owners in Belgrade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marijana Vučinić

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of the study was to analyse the demographic characteristics of lost and found dogs in Belgrade, Serbia. The demographic data concerning the 246 lost and 81 found dogs in the period of 5 consecutive years (January, 2009 to January 2014 was sampled and analysed from the data bases of four organizations for animal protection in Belgrade. The recovery rate of lost dogs and the chance to be reunited again with their owners was 33%. The highest recovery rate was estimated in the category of lost dogs with visible marks such as tags or collars (30%.The chi-square test disclosed that besides dogs with special visible marks, significantly more females, light colour coated, friendly/sociable and neutered dogs were reunited with their owners (P<0.0001.

Improving breast cancer survival analysis through competition-based multidimensional modeling.

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Erhan Bilal

Full Text Available Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women and is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths annually. As with most cancers, it is a heterogeneous disease and different breast cancer subtypes are treated differently. Understanding the difference in prognosis for breast cancer based on its molecular and phenotypic features is one avenue for improving treatment by matching the proper treatment with molecular subtypes of the disease. In this work, we employed a competition-based approach to modeling breast cancer prognosis using large datasets containing genomic and clinical information and an online real-time leaderboard program used to speed feedback to the modeling team and to encourage each modeler to work towards achieving a higher ranked submission. We find that machine learning methods combined with molecular features selected based on expert prior knowledge can improve survival predictions compared to current best-in-class methodologies and that ensemble models trained across multiple user submissions systematically outperform individual models within the ensemble. We also find that model scores are highly consistent across multiple independent evaluations. This study serves as the pilot phase of a much larger competition open to the whole research community, with the goal of understanding general strategies for model optimization using clinical and molecular profiling data and providing an objective, transparent system for assessing prognostic models.

Cross-Validation of Survival Bump Hunting by Recursive Peeling Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J Sunil

2014-08-01

We introduce a survival/risk bump hunting framework to build a bump hunting model with a possibly censored time-to-event type of response and to validate model estimates. First, we describe the use of adequate survival peeling criteria to build a survival/risk bump hunting model based on recursive peeling methods. Our method called "Patient Recursive Survival Peeling" is a rule-induction method that makes use of specific peeling criteria such as hazard ratio or log-rank statistics. Second, to validate our model estimates and improve survival prediction accuracy, we describe a resampling-based validation technique specifically designed for the joint task of decision rule making by recursive peeling (i.e. decision-box) and survival estimation. This alternative technique, called "combined" cross-validation is done by combining test samples over the cross-validation loops, a design allowing for bump hunting by recursive peeling in a survival setting. We provide empirical results showing the importance of cross-validation and replication.

Survival benefit of glioblastoma patients after FDA approval of temozolomide concomitant with radiation and bevacizumab: A population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Ping; Du, Xianglin L; Lu, Guangrong; Zhu, Jay-Jiguang

2017-07-04

Few population-based analyses have investigated survival change in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) patients treated with concomitant radiotherapy-temozolomide (RT-TMZ) and adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ) and then bevacizumab (BEV) after Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval, respectively. We aimed to explore the effects on survival with RT-TMZ, adjuvant TMZ and BEV in general GBM population based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and Texas Cancer Registry (TCR) databases. A total of 28933 GBM patients from SEER (N = 24578) and TCR (N = 4355) between January 2000 and December 2013 were included. Patients were grouped into three calendar periods based on date of diagnosis: pre-RT-TMZ and pre-BEV (1/2000-2/2005, P1), post-RT-TMZ and pre-BEV (3/2005-4/2009, P2), and post-RT-TMZ and post-BEV (5/2009-12/2013, P3). The association between calendar period of diagnosis and survival was analyzed in SEER and TCR, separately, by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model. We found a significant increase in median overall survival (OS) across the three periods in both populations. In multivariate models, the risk of death was significantly reduced during P2 and further decreased in P3, which remained unchanged after stratification. Comparison and validation analysis were performed in the combined dataset, and consistent results were observed. We conclude that the OS of GBM patients in a "real-world" setting has been steadily improved from January 2000 to December 2013, which likely resulted from the administrations of TMZ concomitant with RT and adjuvant TMZ for newly diagnosed GBM and then BEV for recurrent GBM after respective FDA approval.

Gender Inequality in Survival at Older Ages

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, W.; Scherbov, S.

2017-01-01

Gender gaps are typically measured by subtracting the survival rates for women from that of men. In most countries and at most ages, these gender gaps indicate a survival rate disadvantage for men. This method is not informative because it is unclear whether larger or smaller gaps would be more equitable. Here we reconceptualize the gender gap in survival based on differences from gender-specific best practice rates and express those gender gaps in the metric years of age. If the age-specific...

Second Chance School Students' Attitudes toward the Use of Computers in Domokos Prison, Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Giannoukos, Georgios; Armaos, Remos

2016-01-01

This paper is an attempt to explore educational issues in a school operating in a prison in the hope that findings will be useful in further and larger-scale research. The objective of the study was to investigate the attitudes of inmates attending the Second Chance School, Domokos prison, Greece, towards the use of computers with the help of the…

Longitudinal, population-based study of racial/ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival: impact of neighborhood socioeconomic status, treatment and comorbidity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez, Scarlett Lin; O'Malley, Cynthia D; Stroup, Antoinette; Shema, Sarah J; Satariano, William A

2007-01-01

Colorectal cancer, if detected early, has greater than 90% 5-year survival. However, survival has been shown to vary across racial/ethnic groups in the United States, despite the availability of early detection methods. This study evaluated the joint effects of sociodemographic factors, tumor characteristics, census-based socioeconomic status (SES), treatment, and comorbidities on survival after colorectal cancer among and within racial/ethnic groups, using the SEER-Medicare database for patients diagnosed in 1992–1996, and followed through 1999. Unadjusted colorectal cancer-specific mortality rates were higher among Blacks and Hispanic males than whites (relative rates (95% confidence intervals) = 1.34 (1.26–1.42) and 1.16 (1.04–1.29), respectively), and lower among Japanese (0.78 (0.70–0.88)). These patterns were evident for all-cause mortality, although the magnitude of the disparity was larger for colorectal cancer mortality. Adjustment for stage accounted for the higher rate among Hispanic males and most of the lower rate among Japanese. Among Blacks, stage and SES accounted for about half of the higher rate relative to Whites, and within stage III colon and stages II/III rectal cancer, SES completely accounted for the small differentials in survival between Blacks and Whites. Comorbidity did not appear to explain the Black-White differentials in colorectal-specific nor all-cause mortality, beyond stage, and treatment (surgery, radiation, chemotherapy) explained a very small proportion of the Black-White difference. The fully-adjusted relative mortality rates comparing Blacks to Whites was 1.14 (1.09–1.20) for all-cause mortality and 1.21 (1.14–1.29) for colorectal cancer specific mortality. The sociodemographic, tumor, and treatment characteristics also had different impacts on mortality within racial/ethnic groups. In this comprehensive analysis, race/ethnic-specific models revealed differential effects of covariates on survival after colorectal

There is Still a Chance For Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexey A. Tokarev

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The authors study the sociological grounds of Georgia's foreign policy based on the long-term researches conducted by American and Georgian NGOs, yet applying a critical approach to the provided data and figures. Despite the aggressive rhetoric of Georgian politicians towards Russia and apparent social consensus as regards EU and NATO integration, the article concludes that Russia has not completely "lost" Georgia. The results of the sociological surveys show that up to one third of the population of Georgia are ready to consider Russia as main partner of their country, and this figure depends to a certain extent on the Georgian authorities' policy. In addition, the potential of the Eurasian integration of Georgia is not equal to zero, and it is supported by around one fifth of the population. In the authors' view, Georgia may appreciate help with solving its domestic economic problems far more than being called "a beacon of democracy" or "a truly European state". Although according to the results of the most surveys Russia takes the first place in the list of the threats to Georgia, exceeding even the figures for the banned "Islamic State", around one third of the population of Georgia consistently consider Russian threat exaggerated. Together with those who do not regard Russia as a threat at all, these citizens of Georgia almost equal the number of people who believe that "Russia poses a threat to Georgia". Even if Russia does not change its position on the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the West remains the goalpost of Georgia's foreign policy, the ties between the people, cultures, and economies of the two countries will not be severed. However, negligence towards the potential of developing the bilateral relations with no efforts taken on a mutual basis may significantly weaken the ties between Russia and Georgia by undermining the chances of strengthening them.

Does surgery or radiation provide the best overall survival in Ewing's sarcoma? A review of the National Cancer Data Base.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Benjamin J; Gao, Yubo; Duchman, Kyle R

2017-09-01

There is continuing debate regarding the ideal modality for local control of the primary tumor for patients with Ewing's sarcoma. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the method of local control on overall survival in patients with Ewing's sarcoma. The National Cancer Data Base was used to identify patients Ewing's sarcoma of bone. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed at 2, 5, and 10 years. Factors with a level of significance of P 8 cm, and male sex while controlling for tumor site. Surgery alone was consistently the method of local control that resulted in the highest overall survival. Surgery alone resulted in the best overall survival for patients with Ewing's sarcoma of bone. The results of this investigation provide support to the approach of surgical resection with negative margins when possible. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thinggaard, Mikael; McGue, Matt; Jeune, Bernard

2016-01-01

in 1905 and living in Denmark in 1998, were invited to participate regardless of residence and health; 2,262 (63%) participated in the survey: 1,814 (80.2%) in person and 448 (19.8%) through a proxy. MEASUREMENTS: Socioeconomic factors, medications and diseases, activities of daily living, physical...... to rise without use of hands increased the chance for men to 11.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.7-14.7) and for women to 22.0% (95% CI = 18.9-25.1). When combining this with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from 28 to 30, the chances were 21.7% (95% CI = 11.5-31.9) for men and 34.2% (95...

Equity and child-survival strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mulholland, Ek; Smith, L; Carneiro, I; Becher, H; Lehmann, D

2008-05-01

Recent advances in child survival have often been at the expense of increasing inequity. Successive interventions are applied to the same population sectors, while the same children in other sectors consistently miss out, leading to a trend towards increasing inequity in child survival. This is particularly important in the case of pneumonia, the leading cause of child death, which is closely linked to poverty and malnutrition, and for which effective community-based case management is more difficult to achieve than for other causes of child death. The key strategies for the prevention of childhood pneumonia are case management, mainly through Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI), and immunization, particularly the newer vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and pneumococcus. There is a tendency to introduce both interventions into communities that already have access to basic health care and preventive services, thereby increasing the relative disadvantage experienced by those children without such access. Both strategies can be implemented in such a way as to decrease rather than increase inequity. It is important to monitor equity when introducing child-survival interventions. Economic poverty, as measured by analyses based on wealth quintiles, is an important determinant of inequity in health outcomes but in some settings other factors may be of greater importance. Geography and ethnicity can both lead to failed access to health care, and therefore inequity in child survival. Poorly functioning health facilities are also of major importance. Countries need to be aware of the main determinants of inequity in their communities so that measures can be taken to ensure that IMCI, new vaccine implementation and other child-survival strategies are introduced in an equitable manner.

Changing cancer survival in China during 2003-15: a pooled analysis of 17 population-based cancer registries.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Hongmei; Chen, Wanqing; Zheng, Rongshou; Zhang, Siwei; Ji, John S; Zou, Xiaonong; Xia, Changfa; Sun, Kexin; Yang, Zhixun; Li, He; Wang, Ning; Han, Renqiang; Liu, Shuzheng; Li, Huizhang; Mu, Huijuan; He, Yutong; Xu, Yanjun; Fu, Zhentao; Zhou, Yan; Jiang, Jie; Yang, Yanlei; Chen, Jianguo; Wei, Kuangrong; Fan, Dongmei; Wang, Jian; Fu, Fangxian; Zhao, Deli; Song, Guohui; Chen, Jianshun; Jiang, Chunxiao; Zhou, Xin; Gu, Xiaoping; Jin, Feng; Li, Qilong; Li, Yanhua; Wu, Tonghao; Yan, Chunhua; Dong, Jianmei; Hua, Zhaolai; Baade, Peter; Bray, Freddie; Jemal, Ahmedin; Yu, Xue Qin; He, Jie

2018-05-01

From 2003 to 2005, standardised 5-year cancer survival in China was much lower than in developed countries and varied substantially by geographical area. Monitoring population-level cancer survival is crucial to the understanding of the overall effectiveness of cancer care. We therefore aimed to investigate survival statistics for people with cancer in China between 2003 and 2015. We used population-based data from 17 cancer registries in China. Data for the study population was submitted by the end of July 31, 2016, with follow-up data on vital status obtained on Dec 31, 2015. We used anonymised, individual cancer registration records of patients (aged 0-99 years) diagnosed with primary, invasive cancers from 2003 to 2013. Patients eligible for inclusion had data for demographic characteristics, date of diagnosis, anatomical site, morphology, behaviour code, vital status, and last date of contact. We analysed 5-year relative survival by sex, age, and geographical area, for all cancers combined and 26 different cancer types, between 2003 and 2015. We stratified survival estimates by calendar period (2003-05, 2006-08, 2009-11, and 2012-15). There were 678 842 records of patients with invasive cancer who were diagnosed between 2003 and 2013. Of these records, 659 732 (97·2%) were eligible for inclusion in the final analyses. From 2003-05 to 2012-15, age-standardised 5-year relative survival increased substantially for all cancers combined, for both male and female patients, from 30·9% (95% CI 30·6-31·2) to 40·5% (40·3-40·7). Age-standardised 5-year relative survival also increased for most cancer types, including cancers of the uterus (average change per calendar period 5·5% [95% CI 2·5-8·5]), thyroid (5·4% [3·2-7·6]), cervix (4·5% [2·9-6·2]), and bone (3·2% [2·1-4·4]). In 2012-15, age-standardised 5-year survival for all patients with cancer was higher in urban areas (46·7%, 95% CI 46·5-47·0) than in rural areas (33·6%, 33·3-33·9

Can Characteristics of Reciprocal Translocations Predict the Chance of Transferable Embryos in PGD Cycles?

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Elsbeth Dul

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Translocation carriers have an increased risk of miscarriage or the birth of a child with congenital anomalies. Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD is performed in translocation carriers to select for balanced embryos and, thus, increase the chance of an ongoing pregnancy. However, a common experience is that reciprocal translocation carriers produce a high percentage of unbalanced embryos, which cannot be transferred. Therefore, the pregnancy rates in PGD in this patient group are low. In a cohort of 85 reciprocal translocation carriers undergoing PGD we have searched for cytogenetic characteristics of the translocations that can predict the percentage of balanced embryos. Using shape algorithms, the most likely segregation mode per translocation was determined. Shape algorithm, breakpoint location, and relative chromosome segment sizes proved not to be independent predictors of the percentage of balanced embryos. The ratio of the relative sizes of the translocated segments of both translocation chromosomes can give some insight into the chance of transferable embryos: Very asymmetrical translocations have a higher risk of unbalanced products (p = 0.048. Counseling of the couples on the pros and cons of all their reproductive options remains very important.

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guyot Patricia

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. Methods We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. Results The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. Conclusion The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

A Chance-Constrained Economic Dispatch Model in Wind-Thermal-Energy Storage System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanzhe Hu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available As a type of renewable energy, wind energy is integrated into the power system with more and more penetration levels. It is challenging for the power system operators (PSOs to cope with the uncertainty and variation of the wind power and its forecasts. A chance-constrained economic dispatch (ED model for the wind-thermal-energy storage system (WTESS is developed in this paper. An optimization model with the wind power and the energy storage system (ESS is first established with the consideration of both the economic benefits of the system and less wind curtailments. The original wind power generation is processed by the ESS to obtain the final wind power output generation (FWPG. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM distribution is adopted to characterize the probabilistic and cumulative distribution functions with an analytical expression. Then, a chance-constrained ED model integrated by the wind-energy storage system (W-ESS is developed by considering both the overestimation costs and the underestimation costs of the system and solved by the sequential linear programming method. Numerical simulation results using the wind power data in four wind farms are performed on the developed ED model with the IEEE 30-bus system. It is verified that the developed ED model is effective to integrate the uncertain and variable wind power. The GMM distribution could accurately fit the actual distribution of the final wind power output, and the ESS could help effectively decrease the operation costs.

Survival analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Badwe, R.A.

1999-01-01

The primary endpoint in the majority of the studies has been either disease recurrence or death. This kind of analysis requires a special method since all patients in the study experience the endpoint. The standard method for estimating such survival distribution is Kaplan Meier method. The survival function is defined as the proportion of individuals who survive beyond certain time. Multi-variate comparison for survival has been carried out with Cox's proportional hazard model

Undesirable Choice Biases with Small Differences in the Spatial Structure of Chance Stimulus Sequences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Herrera

Full Text Available In two-alternative discrimination tasks, experimenters usually randomize the location of the rewarded stimulus so that systematic behavior with respect to irrelevant stimuli can only produce chance performance on the learning curves. One way to achieve this is to use random numbers derived from a discrete binomial distribution to create a 'full random training schedule' (FRS. When using FRS, however, sporadic but long laterally-biased training sequences occur by chance and such 'input biases' are thought to promote the generation of laterally-biased choices (i.e., 'output biases'. As an alternative, a 'Gellerman-like training schedule' (GLS can be used. It removes most input biases by prohibiting the reward from appearing on the same location for more than three consecutive trials. The sequence of past rewards obtained from choosing a particular discriminative stimulus influences the probability of choosing that same stimulus on subsequent trials. Assuming that the long-term average ratio of choices matches the long-term average ratio of reinforcers, we hypothesized that a reduced amount of input biases in GLS compared to FRS should lead to a reduced production of output biases. We compared the choice patterns produced by a 'Rational Decision Maker' (RDM in response to computer-generated FRS and GLS training sequences. To create a virtual RDM, we implemented an algorithm that generated choices based on past rewards. Our simulations revealed that, although the GLS presented fewer input biases than the FRS, the virtual RDM produced more output biases with GLS than with FRS under a variety of test conditions. Our results reveal that the statistical and temporal properties of training sequences interacted with the RDM to influence the production of output biases. Thus, discrete changes in the training paradigms did not translate linearly into modifications in the pattern of choices generated by a RDM. Virtual RDMs could be further employed to guide

Undesirable Choice Biases with Small Differences in the Spatial Structure of Chance Stimulus Sequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, David; Treviño, Mario

2015-01-01

In two-alternative discrimination tasks, experimenters usually randomize the location of the rewarded stimulus so that systematic behavior with respect to irrelevant stimuli can only produce chance performance on the learning curves. One way to achieve this is to use random numbers derived from a discrete binomial distribution to create a 'full random training schedule' (FRS). When using FRS, however, sporadic but long laterally-biased training sequences occur by chance and such 'input biases' are thought to promote the generation of laterally-biased choices (i.e., 'output biases'). As an alternative, a 'Gellerman-like training schedule' (GLS) can be used. It removes most input biases by prohibiting the reward from appearing on the same location for more than three consecutive trials. The sequence of past rewards obtained from choosing a particular discriminative stimulus influences the probability of choosing that same stimulus on subsequent trials. Assuming that the long-term average ratio of choices matches the long-term average ratio of reinforcers, we hypothesized that a reduced amount of input biases in GLS compared to FRS should lead to a reduced production of output biases. We compared the choice patterns produced by a 'Rational Decision Maker' (RDM) in response to computer-generated FRS and GLS training sequences. To create a virtual RDM, we implemented an algorithm that generated choices based on past rewards. Our simulations revealed that, although the GLS presented fewer input biases than the FRS, the virtual RDM produced more output biases with GLS than with FRS under a variety of test conditions. Our results reveal that the statistical and temporal properties of training sequences interacted with the RDM to influence the production of output biases. Thus, discrete changes in the training paradigms did not translate linearly into modifications in the pattern of choices generated by a RDM. Virtual RDMs could be further employed to guide the selection of

Prognostic factors and survival in primary malignant astrocytomas of the spinal cord: a population-based analysis from 1973 to 2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Hadie; Avendaño, Javier; Raza, Shaan M; Gokaslan, Ziya L; Jallo, George I; Quiñones-Hinojosa, Alfredo

2012-05-20

Observational cross-sectional study. Using data from the population-based cancer registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program, we analyzed demographic features, tumor and treatment characteristics, as well as survival rates in patients with primary malignant astrocytomas of the spinal cord (PMASC). PMASC is a rare neoplasm and is considered to carry the same dismal outcome as their cerebral counterparts. Our current knowledge is incomplete, and understanding the epidemiology, diagnosis, and optimal treatment still poses challenges. The SEER data from 1973 to 2007 were reviewed for pathologically confirmed primary anaplastic astrocytomas (AA) and glioblastomas of the spinal cord (C72.0). We compared the clinical features and outcomes of the cohort in uni- and multivariate fashion. Survival was calculated and compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank analysis. Our search criteria retrieved 135 patients diagnosed with PMASC. The median survival for PMASC was 13 months with 1-, 2-, and 5-year survival rates of 51.8%, 32.2%, and 18.7%. Patient diagnosed with AA had a median survival time of 17 months versus 10 months in patients diagnosed with glioblastomas. Adult patients observed markedly prolonged survival compared with the pediatric group, with a 16-month versus 9-month median survival, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed age at diagnosis, pediatric and adult age groups, sex, tumor histology, and extent of resection as significant predictors of survival. Interestingly, outcomes did not significantly change throughout the last decades or by receiving radiotherapy. Outcome for patients diagnosed with PMASC remains poor and presents an ongoing challenge for professionals in the field of neurospinal medicine and surgery. In our analyses of AA, adult patients, males, and patients undergoing radical resections were associated with increased survival. However, incidence of these lesions is low; hence, building strong

The effect of children on men's and women's chances of re-partnering in a European context

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ivanova, K.; Kalmijn, M.; Uunk, W.

2013-01-01

This work examines what role children play in the re-partnering process in five European countries (Norway, France, Germany, Romania, and the Russian Federation) by addressing the following research questions: (1) To what extent do men and women differ in their re-partnering chances?; (2) Can gender

Prognostic classification index in Iranian colorectal cancer patients: Survival tree analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amal Saki Malehi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aims: The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic index for separating homogenous subgroups in colorectal cancer (CRC patients based on clinicopathological characteristics using survival tree analysis. Methods: The current study was conducted at the Research Center of Gastroenterology and Liver Disease, Shahid Beheshti Medical University in Tehran, between January 2004 and January 2009. A total of 739 patients who already have been diagnosed with CRC based on pathologic report were enrolled. The data included demographic and clinical-pathological characteristic of patients. Tree-structured survival analysis based on a recursive partitioning algorithm was implemented to evaluate prognostic factors. The probability curves were calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and the hazard ratio was estimated as an interest effect size. Result: There were 526 males (71.2% of these patients. The mean survival time (from diagnosis time was 42.46± (3.4. Survival tree identified three variables as main prognostic factors and based on their four prognostic subgroups was constructed. The log-rank test showed good separation of survival curves. Patients with Stage I-IIIA and treated with surgery as the first treatment showed low risk (median = 34 months whereas patients with stage IIIB, IV, and more than 68 years have the worse survival outcome (median = 9.5 months. Conclusion: Constructing the prognostic classification index via survival tree can aid the researchers to assess interaction between clinical variables and determining the cumulative effect of these variables on survival outcome.

Seat belt syndrome with unstable Chance fracture dislocation of the second lumbar vertebra without neurological deficits.

Science.gov (United States)

Onu, David O; Hunn, Andrew W; Bohmer, Robert D

2014-01-08

The seat belt syndrome is a recognised complication of seat belt use in vehicles. Unstable Chance fractures of the spine without neurological deficits have been reported infrequently. We describe a young woman with completely disrupted Chance fracture of the second lumbar vertebra in association with left hemidiaphragmatic rupture/hernia, multiple bowel perforations, splenic capsular tear, left humeral shaft and multiple rib fractures. These injuries which resulted from high-speed vehicle collision and led to death of one of the occupants were readily detected by trauma series imaging. The patient was successfully treated by a dedicated multidisciplinary team which adopted a staged surgical approach and prioritisation of care. There were no manifested neurological or other deficits after 1 year of follow-up. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first report of such a case in Australasia. We discuss the challenging surgical management, highlighting the role of radiological imaging in such cases and provide a literature review.

LAST CHANCE TO HELP PLAN FOR THE 2001-02 LECTURE SERIES

CERN Multimedia

Academic Training; Tel. 73127

2001-01-01

Please note that you still have the chance to give your contribution to improved planning for next year's Academic Training Lectures Series. At the web site: http://wwwinfo/support/survey/academic-training/ you will find questionnaires concerning the following different categories: high energy physics, applied physics, science and society and post-graduate students lectures. Answering the questionnaire will help ensure that the selected topics are as close as possible to your interests. In particular requests and comments from students will be much appreciated. To encourage your contribution, the AT Committee will reward one lucky winner with a small prize, a 50 CHF coupon for a book purchase at CERN bookshop.

Sometimes You Do Get a Second Chance: Emergency Contraception for Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Rome, Ellen S; Issac, Veronica

2017-04-01

Unplanned or unintended pregnancy remains a significant challenge for adolescents; many teens who plan ahead but opt not to choose long-acting reversible contraceptive methods have high failure rates with condom usage, oral contraceptives, and other less long-acting methods. Emergency contraception (EC) remains a necessity for those adolescents seeking a second chance to prevent the unintended consequences of unplanned sexual activity. At present, 5 postcoital methods remain available as EC globally: intrauterine devices, ulipristal acetate, a selective progesterone modulator, mifepristone; levonorgestrel, and ethinyl estradiol plus levonorgestrel or norgestrel (rarely used now that progestin only methods are more readily available). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of comorbidity on cancer survival: a review

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Søgaard M

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Mette Søgaard,1 Reimar Wernich Thomsen,1 Kristine Skovgaard Bossen,2 Henrik Toft Sørensen,1 Mette Nørgaard1 1Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 2Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark Background: A number of studies have shown poorer survival among cancer patients with comorbidity. Several mechanisms may underlie this finding. In this review we summarize the current literature on the association between patient comorbidity and cancer prognosis. Prognostic factors examined include tumor biology, diagnosis, treatment, clinical quality, and adherence. Methods: All English-language articles published during 2002–2012 on the association between comorbidity and survival among patients with colon cancer, breast cancer, and lung cancer were identified from PubMed, MEDLINE and Embase. Titles and abstracts were reviewed to identify eligible studies and their main results were then extracted. Results: Our search yielded more than 2,500 articles related to comorbidity and cancer, but few investigated the prognostic impact of comorbidity as a primary aim. Most studies found that cancer patients with comorbidity had poorer survival than those without comorbidity, with 5-year mortality hazard ratios ranging from 1.1 to 5.8. Few studies examined the influence of specific chronic conditions. In general, comorbidity does not appear to be associated with more aggressive types of cancer or other differences in tumor biology. Presence of specific severe comorbidities or psychiatric disorders were found to be associated with delayed cancer diagnosis in some studies, while chronic diseases requiring regular medical visits were associated with earlier cancer detection in others. Another finding was that patients with comorbidity do not receive standard cancer treatments such as surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy as often as patients without comorbidity, and their chance of

How can survival processing improve memory encoding?

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Meng; Geng, Haiyan

2013-11-01

We investigated the psychological mechanism of survival processing advantage from the perspective of false memory in two experiments. Using a DRM paradigm in combination with analysis based on signal detection theory, we were able to separately examine participants' utilization of verbatim representation and gist representation. Specifically, in Experiment 1, participants rated semantically related words in a survival scenario for a survival condition but rated pleasantness of words in the same DRM lists for a non-survival control condition. The results showed that participants demonstrated more gist processing in the survival condition than in the pleasantness condition; however, the degree of item-specific processing in the two encoding conditions did not significantly differ. In Experiment 2, the control task was changed to a category rating task, in which participants were asked to make category ratings of words in the category lists. We found that the survival condition involved more item-specific processing than did the category condition, but we found no significant difference between the two encoding conditions at the level of gist processing. Overall, our study demonstrates that survival processing can simultaneously promote gist and item-specific representations. When the control tasks only promoted either item-specific representation or gist representation, memory advantages of survival processing occurred.

Bayesian Chance-Constrained Hydraulic Barrier Design under Geological Structure Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Chitsazan, Nima; Pham, Hai V; Tsai, Frank T-C

2015-01-01

The groundwater community has widely recognized geological structure uncertainty as a major source of model structure uncertainty. Previous studies in aquifer remediation design, however, rarely discuss the impact of geological structure uncertainty. This study combines chance-constrained (CC) programming with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) as a BMA-CC framework to assess the impact of geological structure uncertainty in remediation design. To pursue this goal, the BMA-CC method is compared with traditional CC programming that only considers model parameter uncertainty. The BMA-CC method is employed to design a hydraulic barrier to protect public supply wells of the Government St. pump station from salt water intrusion in the "1500-foot" sand and the "1700-foot" sand of the Baton Rouge area, southeastern Louisiana. To address geological structure uncertainty, three groundwater models based on three different hydrostratigraphic architectures are developed. The results show that using traditional CC programming overestimates design reliability. The results also show that at least five additional connector wells are needed to achieve more than 90% design reliability level. The total amount of injected water from the connector wells is higher than the total pumpage of the protected public supply wells. While reducing the injection rate can be achieved by reducing the reliability level, the study finds that the hydraulic barrier design to protect the Government St. pump station may not be economically attractive. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

Impact of reconstruction methods and pathological factors on survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy

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Salah Binziad

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Surgery remains the mainstay of therapy for pancreatic head (PH and periampullary carcinoma (PC and provides the only chance of cure. Improvements of surgical technique, increased surgical experience and advances in anesthesia, intensive care and parenteral nutrition have substantially decreased surgical complications and increased survival. We evaluate the effects of reconstruction type, complications and pathological factors on survival and quality of life. Materials and Methods: This is a prospective study to evaluate the impact of various reconstruction methods of the pancreatic remnant after pancreaticoduodenectomy and the pathological characteristics of PC patients over 3.5 years. Patient characteristics and descriptive analysis in the three variable methods either with or without stent were compared with Chi-square test. Multivariate analysis was performed with the logistic regression analysis test and multinomial logistic regression analysis test. Survival rate was analyzed by use Kaplan-Meier test. Results: Forty-one consecutive patients with PC were enrolled. There were 23 men (56.1% and 18 women (43.9%, with a median age of 56 years (16 to 70 years. There were 24 cases of PH cancer, eight cases of PC, four cases of distal CBD cancer and five cases of duodenal carcinoma. Nine patients underwent duct-to-mucosa pancreatico jejunostomy (PJ, 17 patients underwent telescoping pancreatico jejunostomy (PJ and 15 patients pancreaticogastrostomy (PG. The pancreatic duct was stented in 30 patients while in 11 patients, the duct was not stented. The PJ duct-to-mucosa caused significantly less leakage, but longer operative and reconstructive times. Telescoping PJ was associated with the shortest hospital stay. There were 5 postoperative mortalities, while postoperative morbidities included pancreatic fistula-6 patients, delayed gastric emptying in-11, GI fistula-3, wound infection-12, burst abdomen-6 and pulmonary infection-2. Factors

Survival predictors of preterm neonates: Hospital based study in Iran (2010-2011).

Science.gov (United States)

Haghighi, Ladan; Nojomi, Marzieh; Mohabbatian, Behnaz; Najmi, Zahra

2013-12-01

Preterm birth (PTB) is responsible for 70% of neonatal mortalities. Various factors influence the risk of neonatal mortality in different populations. Our objective was to evaluate neonatal survival rate of preterm infants, and to define its predictors in Iranian population. This retrospective cohort study included all preterm (26-37 weeks) infants (n=1612) born alive in Shahid Akbar-abadi university hospital, during one year period (April 2010-2011). These infants were evaluated for fetal-neonatal, maternal, and pregnancy data. Survival analysis was performed and viability threshold and risk factors of neonatal mortality were evaluated. Total overall mortality rate was 9.1%. Survival rate were 11.11% for extremely low birth weights (LBW) and 45.12% for very early PTBs. The smallest surviving infant was a 750 gr female with gestational age (GA) of 30 weeks and the youngest infants was a 970 gram female with GA of 25weeks plus 2 days. History of previous dead neonate, need to cardio-pulmonary resuscitation (CPR), need to neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission, postnatal administration of surfactant, presence of anomalies, Apgar score <7, multiple pregnancy, non-cephalic presentation, early PTB, very early PTB, LBW, very low birth weight (VLBW) and extremely low birth weight (ELBW), were risk factors for mortality in preterm neonates. Our study revealed that neonatal survival rate is dramatically influenced by birth weight especially under 1000grams, GA especially below 30 weeks, neonatal anomalies, history of previous dead fetus, multiple pregnancy, non- cephalic presentation, and need for NICU admission, resuscitation and respiratory support with surfactant.

Britton Chance's lab and thereafter: From NIR spectroscopy to molecular sensing via nanotechnology

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Kyung A. Kang

2014-03-01

Full Text Available I was fortunate to work with/for Dr Britton Chance as his postdoctoral fellow, in the Biochemistry and Biophysics Department at the University of Pennsylvania, between August 1991 and January 1994. As anyone who worked for him, I had a sufficient dosage of "Britton Chance" over the years. Initially, to me, I felt that he was someone who was above regular people and far away to reach. Then I became to know him as a person, who was simple and complicated at the same time, with a persistent pursuit for his life interests, i.e., the advancement in science related to human health. As far as it goes to science (and perhaps with sailing, he had few boundary: He communicated with any age group, any one from any country with any cultural background. Any scientists were welcomed to his lab, his own house, and even his boat. He was happy with minimal material things. He kept his friendship faithfully. From him, I came to know how much one person can actually do during a life time. I am very grateful that I got to know him during my life path. In this paper, I list some of my experiences with him scientifically and also how and what I learned from him impacted my research and personal life.

The future of HTR development and market chances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baust, E.; Weisbrodt, I.

1989-01-01

In more than thirty years of development, the pebble bed high-temperature reactor has been brought to the threshold of commercial maturity. On the basis of the experience accumulated with the 15 MW AVR reactor and the THTR-300, unit sizes tailored to demand (HTR-500, modular HTR, GHR-10) will be developed for the electricity and heat markets of the future. The high-temperature reactor is a meaningful supplement to the proven line of light-water reactors and is particularly suitable for being exported to developing countries and industrial threshold countries because of its special technical and inherent safeguards properties. There is broad worldwide interest in the HTR, as is evidenced by several existing agreements on cooperation. It is for this reason that market chances are believed to exist for the HTR after the expected revival of the nuclear power market. ABB and Siemens therefore have decided to develop and market the HTR jointly in the future as a matter of long term strategy by working through a joint subsidiary, HTR-GmbH. (orig.) [de

No association of CpG island methylator phenotype and colorectal cancer survival: population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Min; Jansen, Lina; Walter, Viola; Tagscherer, Katrin; Roth, Wilfried; Herpel, Esther; Kloor, Matthias; Bläker, Hendrik; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Brenner, Hermann; Hoffmeister, Michael

2016-11-22

Previous studies have shown adverse effects of CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) on colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis. However, sample sizes were often limited and only few studies were able to adjust for relevant molecular features associated with CIMP. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of CIMP on CRC survival in a large population-based study with comprehensive adjustment. The CIMP status and other molecular tumour features were analysed in 1385 CRC patients diagnosed between 2003 and 2010. Detailed information were obtained from standardised personal interviews and medical records. During follow-up (median: 4.9 years), we assessed vital status, cause of death and therapy details. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of survival after CRC. The CIMP-H occurred more frequently in patients with older age, female gender, cancer in the proximal colon, BRAF mutation and microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H). However, CIMP status was not associated with CRC prognosis in CRC patients (HR=1.00; 95% CI=0.72-1.40 for overall survival; HR=0.96; 95% CI=0.65-1.41 for disease-specific survival) or in any of the subgroups. Although CIMP status was associated with the presence of MSI-H and BRAF mutation, the prognostic effects of MSI-H (HR=0.49; 95% CI=0.27-0.90) and BRAF mutation (HR=1.78; 95% CI=1.10-2.84) were independent of CIMP status. Similar benefit of chemotherapy was found for CRC outcomes in both the CIMP-low/negative group and the CIMP-high group. CpG island methylator phenotype was not associated with CRC prognosis after adjusting for other important clinical factors and associated mutations.

Network survivability performance

Science.gov (United States)

1993-11-01

This technical report has been developed to address the survivability of telecommunications networks including services. It responds to the need for a common understanding of, and assessment techniques for network survivability, availability, integrity, and reliability. It provides a basis for designing and operating telecommunications networks to user expectations for network survivability and a foundation for continuing industry activities in the subject area. This report focuses on the survivability of both public and private networks and covers a wide range of users. Two frameworks are established for quantifying and categorizing service outages, and for classifying network survivability techniques and measures. The performance of the network survivability techniques is considered; however, recommended objectives are not established for network survivability performance.

Bokanmeldelse: "Fooled by randomness : the hidden role of chance in the markets and in life" / Nassim Nicholas Taleb

OpenAIRE

Sommervoll, Dag Einar

2007-01-01

Artikkelen er gjengitt med tillatelse fra Samfunnsøkonomenes Forening. Bokanmeldelse av: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2005) "Fooled by randomness : the hidden role of chance in the markets and in life", New York: Random House.

Chance for balance: Chance for balance

OpenAIRE

Sævild, Katariina; Skov Sørensen, Katrine; Kildahl Lauritsen, Louise; Fuglsang, Sofie Olivia; Arnbjerg, Stine Høegh

2015-01-01

This project investigates how (im) balance between family and career influences Danish women's desire to have children. In order to answer this question, we have chosen to use qualitative method and our analysis is based on two semi-structured research interviews with two chosen women. Thus these women’s definition of balance and their view on children define the project. We have chosen to use of work-life balance theories, Thomas Hoejrup’s lifeform-analysis and Anthony Giddens’ theories of s...

Exogenous Modulation of Retinoic Acid Signaling Affects Adult RGC Survival in the Frog Visual System after Optic Nerve Injury.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mildred V Duprey-Díaz

Full Text Available After lesions to the mammalian optic nerve, the great majority of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs die before their axons have even had a chance to regenerate. Frog RGCs, on the other hand, suffer only an approximately 50% cell loss, and we have previously investigated the mechanisms by which the application of growth factors can increase their survival rate. Retinoic acid (RA is a vitamin A-derived lipophilic molecule that plays major roles during development of the nervous system. The RA signaling pathway is also present in parts of the adult nervous system, and components of it are upregulated after injury in peripheral nerves but not in the CNS. Here we investigate whether RA signaling affects long-term RGC survival at 6 weeks after axotomy. Intraocular injection of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA, the retinoic acid receptor (RAR type-α agonist AM80, the RARβ agonist CD2314, or the RARγ agonist CD1530, returned axotomized RGC numbers to almost normal levels. On the other hand, inhibition of RA synthesis with disulfiram, or of RAR receptors with the pan-RAR antagonist Ro-41-5253, or the RARβ antagonist LE135E, greatly reduced the survival of the axotomized neurons. Axotomy elicited a strong activation of the MAPK, STAT3 and AKT pathways; this activation was prevented by disulfiram or by RAR antagonists. Finally, addition of exogenous ATRA stimulated the activation of the first two of these pathways. Future experiments will investigate whether these strong survival-promoting effects of RA are mediated via the upregulation of neurotrophins.

Does delay in diagnosing colorectal cancer in symptomatic patients affect tumor stage and survival? A population-based observational study

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Visser Otto

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Diagnosing colorectal cancer (CRC at an early stage improves survival. To what extent any delay affects outcome once patients are symptomatic is still unclear. Our objectives were to evaluate the association between diagnostic delay and survival in symptomatic patients with early stage CRC and late stage CRC. Methods Prospective population-based observational study evaluating daily clinical practice in Northern Holland. Diagnostic delay was determined through questionnaire-interviews. Dukes' stage was classified into two groups: early stage (Dukes A or B and late stage (Dukes C or D cancer. Patients were followed up for 3.5 years after diagnosis. Results In total, 272 patients were available for analysis. Early stage CRC was present in 136 patients while 136 patients had late stage CRC. The mean total diagnostic delay (SE was 31 (1.5 weeks in all CRC patients. No significant difference was observed in the mean total diagnostic delay in early versus late stage CRC (p = 0.27. In early stage CRC, no difference in survival was observed between patients with total diagnostic delay shorter and longer than the median (Kaplan-Meier, log-rank p = 0.93. In late stage CRC, patients with a diagnostic delay shorter than the median had a shorter survival than patients with a diagnostic delay longer than the median (log-rank p = 0.01. In the multivariate Cox regression model with survival as dependent variable and median delay, age, open access endoscopy, number and type of symptoms as independent variables, the odd's ratio for survival in patients with long delay (>median versus short delay (≤median was 1.8 (95% confidence interval (CI 1.1 to 3.0; p = 0.01. Tumor-site was not associated with patient survival. When separating late stage CRC in Dukes C and Dukes D tumors, a shorter delay was associated with a shorter survival in Dukes D tumors only and not in Dukes C tumors. Conclusion In symptomatic CRC patients, a longer diagnostic and

Disparities in Adolescent and Young Adult Survival After Testicular Cancer Vary by Histologic Subtype: A Population-Based Study in California 1988-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

DeRouen, Mindy C; Mujahid, Mahasin; Srinivas, Sandy; Keegan, Theresa H M

2016-03-01

Testicular cancer is the most common cancer among adolescent and young adult (AYA) men 15-39 years of age. This study aims to determine whether race/ethnicity and/or neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) contribute independently to survival of AYAs with testicular cancer. Data on 14,249 eligible AYAs with testicular cancer diagnosed in California between 1988 and 2010 were obtained from the population-based California Cancer Registry. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine overall and testicular cancer-specific survival and survival for the seminoma and nonseminoma histologic subtypes according to race/ethnicity, census-tract level neighborhood SES, and other patient and clinical characteristics. Compared with White AYAs, Hispanic AYAs had worse overall and testicular cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.37) and Black AYAs had worse overall survival (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.01-1.97), independent of neighborhood SES and other demographic and clinical factors. Racial/ethnic disparities in survival were more pronounced for nonseminoma than for seminoma. AYAs residing in middle and low SES neighborhoods experienced worse survival across both histologic subtypes independent of race/ethnicity and other factors, while improvements in survival over time were more pronounced for seminoma. Longer time to treatment was also associated with worse survival, particularly for AYAs with nonseminoma. Among AYAs, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood SES are independently associated with survival after testicular cancer. Variation in disparities by histologic type according to demographic factors, year of diagnosis, and time to treatment may reflect differences in prognosis and extent of treatment for the two histologies.

Changing cancer survival in China during 2003–15: a pooled analysis of 17 population-based cancer registries

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Hongmei Zeng, PhD

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Summary: Background: From 2003 to 2005, standardised 5-year cancer survival in China was much lower than in developed countries and varied substantially by geographical area. Monitoring population-level cancer survival is crucial to the understanding of the overall effectiveness of cancer care. We therefore aimed to investigate survival statistics for people with cancer in China between 2003 and 2015. Methods: We used population-based data from 17 cancer registries in China. Data for the study population was submitted by the end of July 31, 2016, with follow-up data on vital status obtained on Dec 31, 2015. We used anonymised, individual cancer registration records of patients (aged 0–99 years diagnosed with primary, invasive cancers from 2003 to 2013. Patients eligible for inclusion had data for demographic characteristics, date of diagnosis, anatomical site, morphology, behaviour code, vital status, and last date of contact. We analysed 5-year relative survival by sex, age, and geographical area, for all cancers combined and 26 different cancer types, between 2003 and 2015. We stratified survival estimates by calendar period (2003–05, 2006–08, 2009–11, and 2012–15. Findings: There were 678 842 records of patients with invasive cancer who were diagnosed between 2003 and 2013. Of these records, 659 732 (97·2% were eligible for inclusion in the final analyses. From 2003–05 to 2012–15, age-standardised 5-year relative survival increased substantially for all cancers combined, for both male and female patients, from 30·9% (95% CI 30·6–31·2 to 40·5% (40·3–40·7. Age-standardised 5-year relative survival also increased for most cancer types, including cancers of the uterus (average change per calendar period 5·5% [95% CI 2·5–8·5], thyroid (5·4% [3·2–7·6], cervix (4·5% [2·9–6·2], and bone (3·2% [2·1–4·4]. In 2012–15, age-standardised 5-year survival for all patients with cancer was higher in urban

A Consensual Qualitative Research Study of the Transformation from High School Dropout to Second Chance Alumni

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jayne E.

2013-01-01

This study focused on understanding the perceived process of change, outcomes and influencing factors experienced by high school graduates of Urban Corps of San Diego County (UCO) from a bioecological theory of human development standpoint. UCO is a second chance high school diploma-job training program that offers students free mental health…

A versatile test for equality of two survival functions based on weighted differences of Kaplan-Meier curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Uno, Hajime; Tian, Lu; Claggett, Brian; Wei, L J

2015-12-10

With censored event time observations, the logrank test is the most popular tool for testing the equality of two underlying survival distributions. Although this test is asymptotically distribution free, it may not be powerful when the proportional hazards assumption is violated. Various other novel testing procedures have been proposed, which generally are derived by assuming a class of specific alternative hypotheses with respect to the hazard functions. The test considered by Pepe and Fleming (1989) is based on a linear combination of weighted differences of the two Kaplan-Meier curves over time and is a natural tool to assess the difference of two survival functions directly. In this article, we take a similar approach but choose weights that are proportional to the observed standardized difference of the estimated survival curves at each time point. The new proposal automatically makes weighting adjustments empirically. The new test statistic is aimed at a one-sided general alternative hypothesis and is distributed with a short right tail under the null hypothesis but with a heavy tail under the alternative. The results from extensive numerical studies demonstrate that the new procedure performs well under various general alternatives with a caution of a minor inflation of the type I error rate when the sample size is small or the number of observed events is small. The survival data from a recent cancer comparative study are utilized for illustrating the implementation of the process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abandoning Peracetic Acid-Based Dialyzer Reuse Is Associated with Improved Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Weiling; Mooney, Ann; Ofsthun, Norma; Lazarus, J. Michael; Hakim, Raymond M.

2011-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Higher mortality risk reported with reuse versus single use of dialyzers is potentially related to reuse reagents that modify membrane surface characteristics and the blood-membrane interface. A key mechanism may involve stimulation of an inflammatory response. Design, setting, participants, & measurements In a prospective crossover design, laboratory markers and mortality from 23 hemodialysis facilities abandoning reuse with peracetic acid mixture were tracked. C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell (WBC) count, albumin, and prealbumin were measured for 2 consecutive months before abandoning reuse and subsequently within 3 and 6 months on single use. Survival models were utilized to compare the 6-month period before abandoning reuse (baseline) and the 6-month period on single use of dialyzers after a 3-month “washout period.” Results Patients from baseline and single-use periods had a mean age of approximately 63 years; 44% were female, 54% were diabetic, 60% were white, and the mean vintage was approximately 3.2 years. The unadjusted hazard ratio for death was 0.70 and after case-mix adjustment was 0.74 for single use compared with reuse. Patients with CRP ≥ 5 mg/L during reuse (mean CRP = 26.6 mg/ml in April) declined on single use to 20.2 mg/L by August and 20.4 mg/L by November. WBC count declined slightly during single use, but nutritional markers were unchanged. Conclusions Abandonment of peracetic-acid-based reuse was associated with improved survival and lower levels of inflammatory but not nutritional markers. Further study is needed to evaluate a potential link between dialyzer reuse, inflammation, and mortality. PMID:20947788

Survival rates and predictors of survival among colorectal cancer patients in a Malaysian tertiary hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Magaji, Bello Arkilla; Moy, Foong Ming; Roslani, April Camilla; Law, Chee Wei

2017-05-18

Colorectal cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed malignancy and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death globally. It is the second most common cancer among both males and females in Malaysia. The economic burden of colorectal cancer is likely to increase over time owing to its current trend and aging population. Cancer survival analysis is an essential indicator for early detection and improvement in cancer treatment. However, there was a scarcity of studies concerning survival of colorectal cancer patients as well as its predictors. Therefore, we aimed to determine the 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates, compare survival rates among ethnic groups and determine the predictors of survival among colorectal cancer patients. This was an ambidirectional cohort study conducted at the University Malaya Medical Centre (UMMC) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. All Malaysian citizens or permanent residents with histologically confirmed diagnosis of colorectal cancer seen at UMMC from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2010 were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were extracted from the medical records. Patients were followed-up until death or censored at the end of the study (31st December 2010). Censored patients' vital status (whether alive or dead) were cross checked with the National Registration Department. Survival analyses at 1-, 3- and 5-year intervals were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Log-rank test was used to compare the survival rates, while Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was carried out to determine the predictors of 5-year colorectal cancer survival. Among 1212 patients, the median survival for colorectal, colon and rectal cancers were 42.0, 42.0 and 41.0 months respectively; while the 1-, 3-, and 5-year relative survival rates ranged from 73.8 to 76.0%, 52.1 to 53.7% and 40.4 to 45.4% respectively. The Chinese patients had the lowest 5-year survival compared to Malay and Indian patients. Based on the 814

Early survival factor deprivation in the olfactory epithelium enhances activity-dependent survival

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrien eFrançois

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The neuronal olfactory epithelium undergoes permanent renewal because of environmental aggression. This renewal is partly regulated by factors modulating the level of neuronal apoptosis. Among them, we had previously characterized endothelin as neuroprotective. In this study, we explored the effect of cell survival factor deprivation in the olfactory epithelium by intranasal delivery of endothelin receptors antagonists to rat pups. This treatment induced an overall increase of apoptosis in the olfactory epithelium. The responses to odorants recorded by electroolfactogram were decreased in treated animal, a result consistent with a loss of olfactory sensory neurons (OSNs. However, the treated animal performed better in an olfactory orientation test based on maternal odor compared to non-treated littermates. This improved performance could be due to activity-dependent neuronal survival of OSNs in the context of increased apoptosis level. In order to demonstrate it, we odorized pups with octanal, a known ligand for the rI7 olfactory receptor (Olr226. We quantified the number of OSN expressing rI7 by RT-qPCR and whole mount in situ hybridization. While this number was reduced by the survival factor removal treatment, this reduction was abolished by the presence of its ligand. This improved survival was optimal for low concentration of odorant and was specific for rI7-expressing OSNs. Meanwhile, the number of rI7-expressing OSNs was not affected by the odorization in non-treated littermates; showing that the activity-dependant survival of OSNs did not affect the OSN population during the 10 days of odorization in control conditions. Overall, our study shows that when apoptosis is promoted in the olfactory mucosa, the activity-dependent neuronal plasticity allows faster tuning of the olfactory sensory neuron population towards detection of environmental odorants.

Effects of Non-Employment in Early Work-Life on Subsequent Employment Chances of Individuals in The Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Luijkx, A.R.C.M.; Wolbers, M.H.J.

2009-01-01

In this article, the effects of non-employment in early work-life on subsequent employment chances of individuals in the Netherlands are examined. A main concern is whether the experience of non-employment in the beginning of the career (permanently) damages a workers later employment opportunities

Chances of short-term cooling trends over Canada for the next decades

Science.gov (United States)

Grenier, Patrick; de Elia, Ramon; Chaumont, Diane

2014-05-01

As climate services continue to develop in Quebec, Canada, an increasing number of requests are made for providing information relevant for the near term. As a response, one approach has been to consider short-term cooling trends as a basis for climate products. This project comprises different aspects: technical steps, knowledge transfer, and societal use. Each step does represent a different challenge. The technical part, i.e. producing probabilistic distributions of short-term temperature trends, involves relatively complex scenario construction methods including bias-related post-processing, and access to wide simulation and observation databases. Calculations are performed on 60 CMIP5-based scenarios on a grid covering Canada during the period 2006-2035, and for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25-year trend durations. Knowledge transfer implies overcoming misinterpretation, given that probabilistic projections based on simulation ensembles are not perfectly related to real-Earth possible outcomes. Finally, societal use of this information remains the biggest challenge. On the one hand, users clearly state their interest in near-term relevant information, and intuitively it seems clear that short-term cooling trends embedded within the long-term warming path should be considered in adaptation plans, for avoiding over-adaptation. On the other hand, the exact way of incorporating such information within a decision-making process has proven not to be obvious. Irrespective of that, the study and communication of short-term cooling chances is necessary for preventing decision-makers to infer from the eventual occurrence of such a trend that global warming isn't happening. The presentation will discuss the three aspects aforementioned.

Body mass index and breast cancer survival

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Qi; Burgess, Stephen; Turman, Constance

2017-01-01

Background: There is increasing evidence that elevated body mass index (BMI) is associated with reduced survival for women with breast cancer. However, the underlying reasons remain unclear. We conducted a Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate a possible causal role of BMI in survival...... from breast cancer. Methods: We used individual-level data from six large breast cancer case-cohorts including a total of 36 210 individuals (2475 events) of European ancestry. We created a BMI genetic risk score (GRS) based on genotypes at 94 known BMI-associated genetic variants. Association between...... the BMI genetic score and breast cancer survival was analysed by Cox regression for each study separately. Study-specific hazard ratios were pooled using fixed-effect meta-analysis. Results: BMI genetic score was found to be associated with reduced breast cancer-specific survival for estrogen receptor (ER...

Chances of employment in women and men after surgery of congenital heart disease: comparisons between patients and the general population.

Science.gov (United States)

Geyer, Siegfried; Norozi, Kambiz; Buchhorn, Reiner; Wessel, Armin

2009-01-01

It was examined whether women and men (17-45 years) with operated congenital heart disease differ with respect to chances of employment. Patients were compared with the general population. Patients (n = 314) were classified by type of surgery (curative, reparative, palliative) as indicator of initial severity of disease. The second classification was performed according to a system proposed by the New York Heart Association in order to take reported impairments into account. Controls (n = 1165) consisted of a 10% random sample drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel. Chances of full-time employment decreased as disease severity increased. Chances of part-time and minor employment were higher in patients than among controls. These general effects were because of male patients, while the employment patterns of women did not differ from the control group. Independent of patient status, women were more likely to have lower rates of full-time employment, and the rates of part-time and minor employment were higher. Long-term adaptation to impairments as a result of congenital heart disease differs between women and men with respect to employment status. While female patients do not differ from the general population, males may lower their engagement in paid work.

Growth and survival of larval and early juvenile lesser sandeel in patchy prey field in the North Sea: An examination using individual-based modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gürkan, Zeren; Christensen, Asbjørn; Deurs, Mikael van

2012-01-01

-stages in the North Sea. Simulations of patchiness related starvation mortality are able to explain observed patterns of variation in sandeel growth. Reduced prey densities within patches decrease growth and survival rate of larvae and match–mismatch affect growth and survival of larvae with different hatch time due...... by modeling copepod size spectra dynamics and patchiness based on particle count transects and Continuous Plankton Recorder time series data. The study analyzes the effects of larval hatching time, presence of zooplankton patchiness and within patch abundance on growth and survival of sandeel early life...

About hypotheses and paradigms: exploring the Discreetness-Chance Paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaellis, Eugene

2006-01-01

Hypotheses generally conform to paradigms which, over time, change, usually tardily, after they have become increasingly difficult to sustain under the impact of non-conforming evidence and alternative hypotheses, but more important, when they no longer are comfortably ensconced in the surrounding social-economic-political-cultural milieu. It is asserted that this milieu is the most important factor in shaping scientific theorizing. Some examples are cited: the rejection of the evidence that the world orbits around the sun (suspected by Pythagoras) in favor of centuries-long firm adherence to the Ptolemaic geocentric system; the early acceptance of Natural Selection in spite of its tautological essence and only conjectural supporting evidence, because it justified contemporaneous social-political ideologies as typified by, e.g., Spencer and Malthus. Economic, social, and cultural factors are cited as providing the ground, i.e., ideational substrate, for what is cited as the Discreetness-Chance Paradigm (DCP), that has increasingly dominated physics, biology, and medicine for over a century and which invokes small, discrete packets of energy/matter (quanta, genes, microorganisms, aberrant cells) functioning within an environment of statistical, not determined, causality. There is speculation on a possible paradigmatic shift from the DCP, which has fostered the proliferation, parallel with ("splitting") taxonomy, of alleged individual disease entities, their diagnoses, and, when available, their specific remedies, something particularly prominent in, e.g., psychiatry's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, a codified compendium of alleged mental and behavioral disorders, but evident in any textbook of diagnosis and treatment of physical ailments. This presumed paradigm shift may be reflected in Western medicine, presently increasingly empirical and atomized, towards a growing acceptance of a more generalized, subject-oriented, approach to health and disease, a non-material-based

Age and case mix-standardised survival for all cancer patients in Europe 1999-2007: Results of EUROCARE-5, a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Baili, Paolo; Di Salvo, Francesca; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Siesling, Sabine; Mallone, Sandra; Santaquilani, Mariano; Micheli, Andrea; Lillini, Roberto; Francisci, Silvia

2015-10-01

Overall survival after cancer is frequently used when assessing a health care service's performance as a whole. It is mainly used by the public, politicians and the media, and is often dismissed by clinicians because of the heterogeneous mix of different cancers, risk factors and treatment modalities. Here we give survival details for all cancers combined in Europe, correlating it with economic variables to suggest reasons for differences. We computed age and cancer site case-mix standardised relative survival for all cancers combined (ACRS) for 29 countries participating in the EUROCARE-5 project with data on more than 7.5million cancer cases from 87 population-based cancer registries, using complete and period approach. Denmark, United Kingdom (UK) and Eastern European countries had lower survival than neighbouring countries. Five-year ACRS has been increasing throughout Europe, and substantial increases, between 1999-2001 and 2005-2007, have been achieved in countries where survival was lower in the past. Five-year ACRS for men and women are positively correlated with macro-economic variables like the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Total National Expenditure on Health (TNEH) (R 2 about 70%). Countries with recent larger increases in GDP and TNEH had greater increases in cancer survival. ACRS serves to compare all cancer survival in Europe taking account of the geographical variability in case-mixes. The EUROCARE-5 data on ACRS confirm previous EUROCARE findings. Survival appears to correlate with macro-economic determinants, particularly with investments in the health care system. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Free Base Lysine Increases Survival and Reduces Metastasis in Prostate Cancer Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim-Hashim, Arig; Wojtkowiak, Jonathan W; de Lourdes Coelho Ribeiro, Maria; Estrella, Veronica; Bailey, Kate M; Cornnell, Heather H; Gatenby, Robert A; Gillies, Robert J

2011-11-19

Malignant tumor cells typically metabolize glucose anaerobically to lactic acid even under normal oxygen tension, a phenomenon called aerobic glycolysis or the Warburg effect. This results in increased acid production and the acidification of the extracellular microenvironment in solid tumors. H + ions tend to flow along concentration gradients into peritumoral normal tissue causing extracellular matrix degradation and increased tumor cell motility thus promoting invasion and metastasis. We have shown that reducing this acidity with sodium bicarbonate buffer decreases the metastatic fitness of circulating tumor cells in prostate cancer and other cancer models. Mathematical models of the tumor-host dynamics predicted that buffers with a pka around 7 will be more effective in reducing intra- and peri-tumoral acidosis and, thus, and possibly more effective in inhibiting tumor metastasis than sodium bicarbonate which has a pKa around 6. Here we test this prediction the efficacy of free base lysine; a non-bicarbonate/non-volatile buffer with a higher pKa (~10), on prostate tumor metastases model. Oxygen consumption and acid production rate of PC3M prostate cancer cells and normal prostate cells were determined using the Seahorse Extracellular Flux (XF-96) analyzer. In vivo effect of 200 mM lysine started four days prior to inoculation on inhibition of metastasis was examined in PC3M-LUC-C6 prostate cancer model using SCID mice. Metastases were followed by bioluminescence imaging. PC3M prostate cancer cells are highly acidic in comparison to a normal prostate cell line indicating that reduction of intra- and perit-tumoral acidosis should inhibit metastases formation. In vivo administration of 200 mM free base lysine increased survival and reduced metastasis. PC3M prostate cancer cells are highly glycolytic and produce large amounts of acid when compared to normal prostate cells. Administration of non-volatile buffer decreased growth of metastases and improved survival

Determinants of IPO survival on the Johannesburg securities exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brownhilder Ngek Neneh

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper was to establish the determinants of IPO survival on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE. Using the Kaplan-Meier test, this study established that firms less than five years prior to listing on the JSE have a significant smaller mean survival time; firms with a gross proceed less than the median have a significant shorter mean survival time; overpriced IPOs have a significant higher survival time; IPOs listed during the hot market period on the JSE have a significant smaller mean survival time and IPOs with return on asset, operating profit margin, and return on equity less than or equal to zero have a low mean survival time. Also, being in the internet industry significantly shortens the mean survival time of an IPO. Moreover, based on the Cox Proportional Hazard model, it was established that the determinants of IPO survivability on the JSE are the firms’ age, size, market period, return on equity and operating profit margin are. These findings provide investors and companies in the JSE with empirical evidence of the determinants of IPO survivability of the JSE. As such, investors are advised to consider these factors when selecting their portfolios

Hypothermic machine perfusion reduces delayed graft function and improves one-year graft survival of kidneys from expanded criteria donors: a meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baoping Jiao

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Expanded criteria donors (ECDs are currently accepted as potential sources to increase the donor pool and to provide more chances of kidney transplantation for elderly recipients who would not survive long waiting periods. Hypothermic machine perfusion (HMP is designed to mitigate the deleterious effects of simple cold storage (CS on the quality of preserved organs, particularly when the donor is in a marginal status. METHODS: We compared the transplant outcomes in patients receiving ECD kidneys with either HMP or CS graft preservation. Articles from the MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases were searched and all studies reporting outcomes from HMP versus CS methods of kidney preservation were included in this meta-analysis. The parameters analyzed included the incidence of delayed graft function (DGF, primary non-function (PNF and one-year graft and patient survival. RESULTS: A total of seven studies qualified for the review, involving 2374 and 8716 kidney grafts with HMP or CS preservation respectively, all from ECD donors. The incidence of delayed graft function (DGF was significantly reduced with an odd ratio(OR of 0.59 (95% CI 0.54-0.66, P<0.001 and one-year graft survival was significantly improved with an OR of 1.12 (95% CI 1.03-1.21, P = 0.005 in HMP preservation compared to CS. However, there was no difference in the incidence of PNF (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.21-1.40, P = 0.20, and one-year patient survival (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.94-1.02, P = 0.36 between HMP and CS preservation. CONCLUSIONS: HMP was associated with a reduced incidence of DGF and an with increased one-year graft survival, but it was not associated with the incidence of PNF and one-year patient survival.

Conditional survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Michael Boe; Pedersen, Niels Tinggaard; Christensen, Bjarne E

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND: Prognosis of lymphoma patients is usually estimated at the time of diagnosis and the estimates are guided by the International Prognostic Index (IPI). However, conditional survival estimates are more informative clinically, as they consider those patients only who have already survive...... survival probability provides more accurate prognostic information than the conventional survival rate estimated from the time of diagnosis.......BACKGROUND: Prognosis of lymphoma patients is usually estimated at the time of diagnosis and the estimates are guided by the International Prognostic Index (IPI). However, conditional survival estimates are more informative clinically, as they consider those patients only who have already survived...... a period of time after treatment. Conditional survival data have not been reported for lymphoma patients. METHODS: Conditional survival was estimated for 1209 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) from the population-based LYFO registry of the Danish Lymphoma Group. The Kaplan-Meier method...

Survivability of SCADA Control Loop

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Camacho, José; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid

2009-01-01

The endorsement of information technologies for critical infrastructures control introduces new threats in their security and surveillance. Along with certain level of protection against attacks, it is desirable for critical processes to survive even if they succeed. A stochastic Petri Nets-based

Chances of environmental education. Chancen der Umwelterziehung. Grundlagen einer Umweltpaedagogik und Umweltdidaktik

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schmack, E.

1982-01-01

This book constitutes a first basic study on environmental education which integrates itself in the programme and the task of 'chance-opening environmental pedagogics.' The grounds for necessary environmental pedagogics and corresponding pedagogic and didactic reactions are given in a very structural form: - 14 studies present the results of the 'environmental research' of the last decade in a coherent way. - Principles of the present environmental policy are presented and differentiated. - With regard to the evaluation of an 'environmental consciousness' a random sample is taken as example. - The international and regional claim of environmental pedagogics is structured by UNESCO-documents.

[Scale Relativity Theory in living beings morphogenesis: fratal, determinism and chance].

Science.gov (United States)

Chaline, J

2012-10-01

The Scale Relativity Theory has many biological applications from linear to non-linear and, from classical mechanics to quantum mechanics. Self-similar laws have been used as model for the description of a huge number of biological systems. Theses laws may explain the origin of basal life structures. Log-periodic behaviors of acceleration or deceleration can be applied to branching macroevolution, to the time sequences of major evolutionary leaps. The existence of such a law does not mean that the role of chance in evolution is reduced, but instead that randomness and contingency may occur within a framework which may itself be structured in a partly statistical way. The scale relativity theory can open new perspectives in evolution. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Disparities in Adolescent and Young Adult Survival After Testicular Cancer Vary by Histologic Subtype: A Population-Based Study in California 1988–2010

Science.gov (United States)

Mujahid, Mahasin; Srinivas, Sandy; Keegan, Theresa H.M.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Testicular cancer is the most common cancer among adolescent and young adult (AYA) men 15–39 years of age. This study aims to determine whether race/ethnicity and/or neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) contribute independently to survival of AYAs with testicular cancer. Methods: Data on 14,249 eligible AYAs with testicular cancer diagnosed in California between 1988 and 2010 were obtained from the population-based California Cancer Registry. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine overall and testicular cancer-specific survival and survival for the seminoma and nonseminoma histologic subtypes according to race/ethnicity, census-tract level neighborhood SES, and other patient and clinical characteristics. Results: Compared with White AYAs, Hispanic AYAs had worse overall and testicular cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07–1.37) and Black AYAs had worse overall survival (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.01–1.97), independent of neighborhood SES and other demographic and clinical factors. Racial/ethnic disparities in survival were more pronounced for nonseminoma than for seminoma. AYAs residing in middle and low SES neighborhoods experienced worse survival across both histologic subtypes independent of race/ethnicity and other factors, while improvements in survival over time were more pronounced for seminoma. Longer time to treatment was also associated with worse survival, particularly for AYAs with nonseminoma. Conclusion: Among AYAs, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood SES are independently associated with survival after testicular cancer. Variation in disparities by histologic type according to demographic factors, year of diagnosis, and time to treatment may reflect differences in prognosis and extent of treatment for the two histologies. PMID:26812451

Valores de referência para macronutrientes em eucalipto obtidos pelos métodos DRIS e chance matemática

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. G. S. Wadt

1998-12-01

Full Text Available Informações de 1.213 árvores de plantios comerciais foram obtidas, entre os anos de 1988 a 1994, de híbridos de Eucalyptus grandis x E. urophylla, da Aracruz Celulose S.A., cultivados no estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil. Os resultados da produtividade e concentração dos macronutrientes em quatro órgãos das árvores foram utilizados na obtenção dos valores de referência para a concentração dos nutrientes, pelos métodos da Chance Matemática e do DRIS. Empregou-se, no cálculo dos índices DRIS, a fórmula de Jones (1981, a divisão da população-base em estratos de idade e a seleção das relações entre os nutrientes pelo teste F. O nível crítico dos nutrientes foi atingido pelo DRIS por meio de dois critérios: pela concentração média dos nutrientes nos talhões nutricionalmente balanceados e produtivos (NCO e pelo critério gráfico (NCG. O primeiro critério mostrou-se mais promissor, inclusive em relação ao método da Chance Matemática, o qual foi adequado principalmente para a determinação de faixa ótima que poderia ser adotada como referência para o limite inferior e o superior de árvores com níveis adequados dos nutrientes.

The Norwegian dietary guidelines and colorectal cancer survival (CRC-NORDIET) study: a food-based multicentre randomized controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Henriksen, Hege Berg; Ræder, Hanna; Bøhn, Siv Kjølsrud; Paur, Ingvild; Kværner, Ane Sørlie; Billington, Siv Åshild; Eriksen, Morten Tandberg; Wiedsvang, Gro; Erlund, Iris; Færden, Arne; Veierød, Marit Bragelien; Zucknick, Manuela; Smeland, Sigbjørn; Blomhoff, Rune

2017-01-30

Colorectal cancer survivors are not only at risk for recurrent disease but also at increased risk of comorbidities such as other cancers, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension and functional decline. In this trial, we aim at investigating whether a diet in accordance with the Norwegian food-based dietary guidelines and focusing at dampening inflammation and oxidative stress will improve long-term disease outcomes and survival in colorectal cancer patients. This paper presents the study protocol of the Norwegian Dietary Guidelines and Colorectal Cancer Survival study. Men and women aged 50-80 years diagnosed with primary invasive colorectal cancer (Stage I-III) are invited to this randomized controlled, parallel two-arm trial 2-9 months after curative surgery. The intervention group (n = 250) receives an intensive dietary intervention lasting for 12 months and a subsequent maintenance intervention for 14 years. The control group (n = 250) receives no dietary intervention other than standard clinical care. Both groups are offered equal general advice of physical activity. Patients are followed-up at 6 months and 1, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 15 years after baseline. The study center is located at the Department of Nutrition, University of Oslo, and patients are recruited from two hospitals within the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority. Primary outcomes are disease-free survival and overall survival. Secondary outcomes are time to recurrence, cardiovascular disease-free survival, compliance to the dietary recommendations and the effects of the intervention on new comorbidities, intermediate biomarkers, nutrition status, physical activity, physical function and quality of life. The current study is designed to gain a better understanding of the role of a healthy diet aimed at dampening inflammation and oxidative stress on long-term disease outcomes and survival in colorectal cancer patients. Since previous research on the role of diet for

Camouflage predicts survival in ground-nesting birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Troscianko, Jolyon; Wilson-Aggarwal, Jared; Stevens, Martin; Spottiswoode, Claire N

2016-01-29

Evading detection by predators is crucial for survival. Camouflage is therefore a widespread adaptation, but despite substantial research effort our understanding of different camouflage strategies has relied predominantly on artificial systems and on experiments disregarding how camouflage is perceived by predators. Here we show for the first time in a natural system, that survival probability of wild animals is directly related to their level of camouflage as perceived by the visual systems of their main predators. Ground-nesting plovers and coursers flee as threats approach, and their clutches were more likely to survive when their egg contrast matched their surrounds. In nightjars - which remain motionless as threats approach - clutch survival depended on plumage pattern matching between the incubating bird and its surrounds. Our findings highlight the importance of pattern and luminance based camouflage properties, and the effectiveness of modern techniques in capturing the adaptive properties of visual phenotypes.

Marital status and survival of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study

OpenAIRE

Shi, Xiao; Zhang, Ting-ting; Hu, Wei-ping; Ji, Qing-hai

2017-01-01

Background The relationship between marital status and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) survival has not been explored. The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of marital status on OCSCC survival and investigate the potential mechanisms. Results Married patients had better 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) (66.7% vs 54.9%) and 5-year overall survival (OS) (56.0% vs 41.1%). In multivariate Cox regression models, unmarried patients also showed higher mortality risk ...

Comparison of Back propagation neural network and Back propagation neural network Based Particle Swarm intelligence in Diagnostic Breast Cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farahnaz SADOUGHI

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the most common cause of death in women all over the world. Use of computer technology supporting breast cancer diagnosing is now widespread and pervasive across a broad range of medical areas. Early diagnosis of this disease can greatly enhance the chances of long-term survival of breast cancer victims. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN as mainly method play important role in early diagnoses breast cancer. This paper studies Levenberg Marquardet Backpropagation (LMBP neural network and Levenberg Marquardet Backpropagation based Particle Swarm Optimization(LMBP-PSO for the diagnosis of breast cancer. The obtained results show that LMBP and LMBP based PSO system provides higher classification efficiency. But LMBP based PSO needs minimum training and testing time. It helps in developing Medical Decision System (MDS for breast cancer diagnosing. It can also be used as secondary observer in clinical decision making.

Treatment and survival outcomes of small cell carcinoma of the esophagus: an analysis of the National Cancer Data Base.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Andrew T; Shao, Meng; Rineer, Justin; Osborn, Virginia; Schwartz, David; Schreiber, David

2017-02-01

Given the paucity of esophageal small cell carcinoma (SCC) cases, there are few large studies evaluating this disease. In this study, the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) was utilized to analyze the clinical features, treatment, and survival of patients with esophageal SCC in a large, population-based dataset. We selected patients diagnosed with esophageal SCC from 1998 to 2011. Patients were identified as having no treatment, chemotherapy alone, radiation ± sequential chemotherapy, concurrent chemoradiation, and esophagectomy ± chemotherapy and/or radiation. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify factors associated with OS. A total of 583 patients were identified. Most patients had stage IV disease (41.7%). Regarding treatment selection, chemoradiation was the most commonly utilized for patients with nonmetasatic disease, whereas chemotherapy alone was most common for metastatic patients. Esophagectomy (median survival 44.9 months with 3 year OS 50.5%) was associated with the best OS for patients with localized (node-negative) disease compared with chemotherapy alone (p < 0.001) or chemoradiation (p = 0.01). For locoregional (node-positive) disease, treatment with chemoradiation resulted in a median survival of 17.8 months and a 3 year OS 31.6%. On multivariate analysis, treatment with chemotherapy alone (p = 0.003) was associated with worse OS while esophagectomy (p = 0.04) was associated with improved OS compared to chemoradiation. Esophageal SCC is an aggressive malignancy with most patients presenting with metastatic disease. Either esophagectomy or chemoradiation as part of multimodality treatment appear to improve OS for selected patients with nonmetastatic disease. © 2016 International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

Overall survival patterns in patients with multiple myeloma in the era of novel agents and the role of initial clinical presentation and comorbidities: A population-based study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oortgiesen, Berdien; Van Roon, Eric N.; Joosten, Peter; Kibbelaar, Robby; Storm, Huib; Hovenga, Sjoerd; Van Rees, Bas P.; Woolthuis, Gerhard; Veeger, Nic J. G. M.; Hoogendoorn, Mels

2014-01-01

Introduction Clinical trials have shown improved response rates, progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) when using the novel agents thalidomide, lenalidomide and bortezomib. However, outcome data provided by population-based registries, reflecting

How Well Does the “Safety Net” Work for Family Safety Nets? Economic Survival Strategies Among Grandmother Caregivers in Severe Deprivation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LaShawnDa Pittman

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Using qualitative data collected from fifty-eight African American grandmothers raising grandchildren in skipped-generation households (SGHs, I reveal how and why women in non-normative families, lacking legal protections and publicly recognized authority as parents, must negotiate risk in pursuit of resources. I demonstrate that these grandmothers struggle for economic survival while seeking simultaneously to minimize the risk of losing their grandchildren and maximize their chances of receiving public assistance. I argue that grandmothers in SGHs face significant challenges obtaining government benefits owing to policy eligibility guidelines, street-level implementation, and family dynamics. Ultimately, I illustrate how the severe deprivation experienced by these grandmothers is exacerbated by their exclusion from safety net programs that could help them support the children in their care.

Improved overall survival after early recurrence of lung cancer following the introduction of CT-based follow-up for patients initially treated with curative intent by (chemo)radiotherapy (CRT)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Niels-Chr. G.; Laursen, Christian B.; Jeppesen, Stefan S.

2017-01-01

years after the introduction of CT-based follow-up. The difference between the periods is statistically significant (p = 0.009, log rank test).View this table:Conclusion: The CT-based follow-up program has most likely contributed to the improved survival as the survival difference between the periods......Background: After introduction in July 2010 of follow-up by contrast enhanced CT of thorax and upper abdomen every 3 months for two years and then every 6 months for three years we found improved survival after early recurrence in patients initially treated by surgery (Eur Respir J 2015; 46 suppl...

Third-line therapy in recurrent glioblastoma: is it another chance for bevacizumab?

Science.gov (United States)

Franceschi, Enrico; Lamberti, Giuseppe; Paccapelo, Alexandro; Di Battista, Monica; Genestreti, Giovenzio; Minichillo, Santino; Mura, Antonella; Bartolini, Stefania; Agati, Raffaele; Brandes, Alba A

2018-04-18

Standard glioblastoma therapy is long-lasting. Among second-line therapy, choices could be bevacizumab and nitrosoureas depending on National Agencies approval. There is no consensus on 3rd line therapy or clinical trials specifically designed for this setting. We reviewed our institutional database on all consecutive patients who received 3rd line therapy for glioblastoma. Data on 168 out of 1337 (12.6%) glioblastoma patients who underwent 3rd line therapy treatment were collected. Third line treatments were bevacizumab or chemotherapy (nitrosourea, temozolomide or carboplatin plus etoposide). Median progression free survival was 2.9 months and median survival time was 6.6 months from the start of 3rd line therapy. Bevacizumab significantly improved progression-free survival (4.7 vs. 2.6 months, p = .020) and survival from 3rd line start (8.0 vs. 6.0 months, p = .014) in respect to chemotherapy. Toxicity of grade ≥ 3 occurred in 13.7% of patients. In multivariate analysis, survival in 3rd line treatment depends on MGMT methylation (p = .006) and treatment with Bevacizumab (p = .011). Third line therapy in selected glioblastoma patients may be feasible and well tolerated. Bevacizumab improved outcome in 3rd line in respect to chemotherapy.

Hospital-based colorectal cancer survival trend of different tumor locations from 1960s to 2000s.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Jing Fang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Our aim is to explore the trend of association between the survival rates of colorectal cancer (CRC and the different clinical characteristics in patients registered from 1960s to 2000s. We hypothesized that the survival rate of CRC increases over time and varies according to anatomic subsites. METHODS: Information from a total of 4558 stage T(1-4N(1-2M0 CRC patients registered from 1960s to 2008 were analyzed. The association of CRC overall survival with age, gender, tumor locations, time, histopathology types, pathology grades, no. of examined lymph nodes, the T stage, and the N stage was analyzed. The assessment of the influence of prognostic factors on patient survival was performed using Cox's proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS: From 1960 to 2008, the studied CRC patients included 2625 (57.6% and 1933 (42.4% males and females, respectively. These included 1896 (41.6% colon cancers, and 2662 (58.4% rectum cancers. The 5-year survival rate was 49%, 58%, 58%, 70%, and 77% for the time duration of 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. An increased 5-year survival rate was observed in the colon cancer and rectum cancer patients. Patients older than 60 years of age were more likely to develop colonic cancer (sigmoid than rectum cancer (49.2% vs. 39.9%. The Cox regression model showed that only rectum cancer survival was related to time duration. CONCLUSION: The overall survival and 5-year survival rates showed an increase from the 1960s to 2000s. There is a trend of rightward shift of tumor location in CRC patients.

Chances and risks in the sale of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spaeth, F.

1995-01-01

'Natural gas is number one among the growth industries of the energy sector' proclaim today's augurs. What with growth rates of 20% in western and more than 100% in eastern Germany, the gas supply companies could really look ahead in confidence. However, the situation does not merit unrestrained euphoria. For one thing, predictions should quite generally be viewed with a good measure of healthy scepticism, or, as Prof. Dr. Dieter Schmitt, energy economist from Essen, recently put it in a nutshell: 'Prognoses are no prophecies. Only prophets are really able to tell the future'. The other point is that natural gas will only be able to carry its past success on into the future if it can fulfill the consumer's expectations regarding security of supply, environment and climate friendly utilisation, possibilities to save energy, and, most important of all, competitivity. The last point, in particular, is beset with many imponderabilities on which gas supply companies have little influence. Therefore, despite the favourable forecasts, the chances and risks involved in the sale of natural gas must be assessed judiciously. (orig.) [de

Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

2016-01-01

One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets.

Patients undergoing radical prostatectomy have a better survival than the background population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andreas Røder, Martin; Brasso, Klaus; Drimer Berg, Kasper

2013-01-01

underwent radical prostatectomy. Patients were followed prospectively per protocol. No patients were lost to follow-up. Overall and cause-specific survival were described using Kaplan-Meier plots. Standardized relative survival and mortality ratio were calculated based on expected survival in the age......INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to investigate standardised relative survival and mortality ratio for patients undergoing radical prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer at our institution. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Between 1995 and 2010, a total of 1,350 consecutive patients......-matched Danish population using the methods and macros described by Dickmann. The country-specific population mortality rates used for calculation of the expected survival were based on data from The Human Mortality Database. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 3.4 years (range: 0-14.3 years). A total of 59 (4...

Life-Satisfaction, Values and Goal Achievement: The Case of Planned versus by Chance Searches on the Internet

Science.gov (United States)

Casas, Ferran; Gonzalez, Monica; Figuer, Cristina; Coenders, Germa

2004-01-01

The relation between life domains satisfaction and overall life satisfaction, values, internal/external perceived control and the option of planning or by chance searching information on the Internet has been explored in a sample of Spanish adolescents aged 12 to 16 (N=968). Age and sex differences have been examined. Results clearly confirm a…

Survival of Patients with Oral Cavity Cancer in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Listl, Stefan; Jansen, Lina; Stenzinger, Albrecht; Freier, Kolja; Emrich, Katharina; Holleczek, Bernd; Katalinic, Alexander; Gondos, Adam; Brenner, Hermann

2013-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to describe the survival of patients diagnosed with oral cavity cancer in Germany. The analyses relied on data from eleven population-based cancer registries in Germany covering a population of 33 million inhabitants. Patients with a diagnosis of oral cavity cancer (ICD-10: C00-06) between 1997 and 2006 are included. Period analysis for 2002–2006 was applied to estimate five-year age-standardized relative survival, taking into account patients' sex as well as grade and tumor stage. Overall five-year relative survival for oral cavity cancer patients was 54.6%. According to tumor localization, five-year survival was 86.5% for lip cancer, 48.1% for tongue cancer and 51.7% for other regions of the oral cavity. Differences in survival were identified with respect to age, sex, tumor grade and stage. The present study is the first to provide a comprehensive overview on survival of oral cavity cancer patients in Germany. PMID:23349710

Modelling survival

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

2016-01-01

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test...

GSTP1 Loss results in accumulation of oxidative DNA base damage and promotes prostate cancer cell survival following exposure to protracted oxidative stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Mian, Omar Y; Khattab, Mohamed H; Hedayati, Mohammad; Coulter, Jonathan; Abubaker-Sharif, Budri; Schwaninger, Julie M; Veeraswamy, Ravi K; Brooks, James D; Hopkins, Lisa; Shinohara, Debika Biswal; Cornblatt, Brian; Nelson, William G; Yegnasubramanian, Srinivasan; DeWeese, Theodore L

2016-02-01

Epigenetic silencing of glutathione S-transferase π (GSTP1) is a hallmark of transformation from normal prostatic epithelium to adenocarcinoma of the prostate. The functional significance of this loss is incompletely understood. The present study explores the effects of restored GSTP1 expression on glutathione levels, accumulation of oxidative DNA damage, and prostate cancer cell survival following oxidative stress induced by protracted, low dose rate ionizing radiation (LDR). GSTP1 protein expression was stably restored in LNCaP prostate cancer cells. The effect of GSTP1 restoration on protracted LDR-induced oxidative DNA damage was measured by GC-MS quantitation of modified bases. Reduced and oxidized glutathione levels were measured in control and GSTP1 expressing populations. Clonogenic survival studies of GSTP1- transfected LNCaP cells after exposure to protracted LDR were performed. Global gene expression profiling and pathway analysis were performed. GSTP1 expressing cells accumulated less oxidized DNA base damage and exhibited decreased survival compared to control LNCaP-Neo cells following oxidative injury induced by protracted LDR. Restoration of GSTP1 expression resulted in changes in modified glutathione levels that correlated with GSTP1 protein levels in response to protracted LDR-induced oxidative stress. Survival differences were not attributable to depletion of cellular glutathione stores. Gene expression profiling and pathway analysis following GSTP1 restoration suggests this protein plays a key role in regulating prostate cancer cell survival. The ubiquitous epigenetic silencing of GSTP1 in prostate cancer results in enhanced survival and accumulation of potentially promutagenic DNA adducts following exposure of cells to protracted oxidative injury suggesting a protective, anti-neoplastic function of GSTP1. The present work provides mechanistic backing to the tumor suppressor function of GSTP1 and its role in prostate carcinogenesis. © 2015

Combining Skype with Blogging: A chance to stop reinforcement of stereotypes in intercultural exchanges?

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L. Lynette Kirschner

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This papers looks into whether combining Skype, blogging and class discussions reinforces or refutes stereotypes. The hypothesis was that some students do not have an adequate chance to reflect on their skype experience and course content. To see if students have made improvements in reducing stereotypes, the Standards for Foreign Language Learning: Culture will be used to evaluate their blog entries. In addition a survey will be given at end of the semester to analyse the student's perspective of their own learning.

The lepton asymmetry the last chance for a critical-density cosmology?

CERN Document Server

Lesgourgues, Julien; Lesgourgues, Julien; Liddle, Andrew R.

2001-01-01

We use a wide range of observations to constrain cosmological models possessing a significant asymmetry in the lepton sector, which offer perhaps the best chance of reconciling a critical-density Universe with current observations. The simplest case, with massless neutrinos, fails to fit many experimental data and does not lead to an acceptable model. If the neutrinos have mass of order one electron-volt (which is favoured by some neutrino observations), then models can be implemented which prove a good fit to microwave anisotropies and large-scale structure data. However, taking into account the latest microwave anisotropy results, especially those from Boomerang, we show that the model can no longer accommodate the observed baryon fraction in clusters. Together with the observed acceleration of the present Universe, this puts considerable pressure on such critical-density models.

Changing Pattern in Malignant Mesothelioma Survival

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Jennifer Faig

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Survival for mesothelioma has been shown to be poor, with marginal improvement over time. Recent advances in the understanding of pathophysiology and treatment of mesothelioma may impact therapy to improve survival that may not be evident from available clinical trials that are often small and not randomized. Therapies may affect survival differently based on mesothelioma location (pleural vs peritoneal. Data are conflicting regarding the effect of asbestos exposure on mesothelioma location. OBJECTIVES: We examined survival in a large cohort of mesothelioma subjects analyzed by tumor location and presence and mode of asbestos exposure. METHODS: Data were analyzed from cases (n = 380 diagnosed with mesothelioma from 1992 to 2012. Cases were either drawn from treatment referrals, independent medical evaluation for medical legal purposes, or volunteers who were diagnosed with mesothelioma. Subjects completed an occupational medical questionnaire, personal interview with the examining physician, and physician review of the medical record. RESULTS: This study reports better survival for mesothelioma than historical reports. Survival for peritoneal mesothelioma was longer than that for pleural mesothelioma (hazard ratio = 0.36, 95% confidence interval = 0.24-0.54, P < .001 after adjusting for gender and age at diagnosis. Non-occupational cases were more likely to be 1 diagnosed with peritoneal mesothelioma, 2 female, 3 exposed, and 4 diagnosed at a younger age and to have a 5 shorter latency compared to occupational cases (P < .001. CONCLUSION: Peritoneal mesothelioma was more likely associated with non-occupational exposure, thus emphasizing the importance of exposure history in enhancing early diagnosis and treatment impact.

Treatment, therapy results and survival for non-small cell lung cancer in a period of new therapeutic modalities and cytotoxic substances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Treff, J.

2002-09-01

During the last years considerable changes have been made in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. This retrospective study analyzed besides the common characteristics the treatment, response rates and overall survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer in a central internistical and oncological outpatient department. 328 patients treated at the haematology-oncology outpatient department were included in this study. Requirements have been patients with histologically or cytologically verified non-small cell lung cancer, diagnosis between 1989 and 2001 and comprehensible courses of disease and treatment. Results: Most of the patients were men (72 %) and only 28 % were women. Median age at diagnosis was 61 years; 8.8 % of the patients were aged under 45 years. Adenocarcinoma (46 %) and squamous cell carcinoma (36 %) were the most frequent histologic types. At time of diagnosis 68 % of the patients have been in an already advanced stage IIIB or IV. Surprisingly the diagnosis resulted for 25 % of the patients by chance, 75 % of the patients were diagnosed due to symptoms. Only 8 % of the patients did not receive a specific therapy (surgery, radiation therapy, chemotherapy) due to their advanced disease. 21 patients were treated in a neoadjuvant setting and for 10 (48 %) surgery with curative intention could be performed. The most frequently given chemotherapy in the first-line palliative therapy were Cis-, Carboplatin/VP 16 (40 %) and Cis-, Carboplatin/Navelbine (27 %). The response rate was poor - six complete responses (2.5 %) and 34 (14.3 %) partial responses. 107 patients received a second-line chemotherapy. The overall median survival of all patients was 13.5 months. The stage at time of diagnosis was the most important prognostic factor. Interestingly enough also a survival benefit for women could be demonstrated (15.5 months vs. 13 months). The common characteristics of the analyzed patients correspond to the typical collective of patients in a

Occupational inequalities in health expectancies in France in the early 2000s: Unequal chances of reaching and living retirement in good health

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Emmanuelle Cambois

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Increasing life expectancy (LE raises expectations for social participation at later ages. We computed health expectancies (HE to assess the (unequal chances of social/work participation after age 50 in the context of France in 2003. We considered five HEs, covering various health situations which can jeopardize participation, and focused on both older ages and the pre-retirement period. HEs reveal large inequalities for both sexes in the chances of remaining healthy after retirement, and also of reaching retirement age in good health and without disability, especially in low-qualified occupations. These results challenge the policy expectation of an overall increase in social participation at later ages.

Regulatory activity based risk model identifies survival of stage II and III colorectal carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Gang; Dong, Chuanpeng; Wang, Xing; Hou, Guojun; Zheng, Yu; Xu, Huilin; Zhan, Xiaohui; Liu, Lei

2017-11-17

Clinical and pathological indicators are inadequate for prognosis of stage II and III colorectal carcinoma (CRC). In this study, we utilized the activity of regulatory factors, univariate Cox regression and random forest for variable selection and developed a multivariate Cox model to predict the overall survival of Stage II/III colorectal carcinoma in GSE39582 datasets (469 samples). Patients in low-risk group showed a significant longer overall survival and recurrence-free survival time than those in high-risk group. This finding was further validated in five other independent datasets (GSE14333, GSE17536, GSE17537, GSE33113, and GSE37892). Besides, associations between clinicopathological information and risk score were analyzed. A nomogram including risk score was plotted to facilitate the utilization of risk score. The risk score model is also demonstrated to be effective on predicting both overall and recurrence-free survival of chemotherapy received patients. After performing Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) between high and low risk groups, we found that several cell-cell interaction KEGG pathways were identified. Funnel plot results showed that there was no publication bias in these datasets. In summary, by utilizing the regulatory activity in stage II and III colorectal carcinoma, the risk score successfully predicts the survival of 1021 stage II/III CRC patients in six independent datasets.

Perspectives for hydropower in Switzerland - chances offered by the 'green power' market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spreng, D.; Truffer, B.; Wuestenhagen, R.

2003-01-01

This short article discusses the chances offered to operators of hydropower stations by 'green power' markets for the sale of power produced under strict conditions in environment-friendly power generation facilities. The development of these markets is discussed as are the interdependencies between the public's use of green power markets and measures taken by the state to promote the use of renewable forms of energy. The results of market research on customer willingness to purchase environment-friendly electricity are discussed and the important role of hydropower in this business is stressed. The differing interests of various customer segments are discussed and the part played by 'green stocks' and other sustainable investments in the financial market is looked at

Individualized decision-making in IVF: calculating the chances of pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

van Loendersloot, L L; van Wely, M; Repping, S; Bossuyt, P M M; van der Veen, F

2013-11-01

.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.63-0.73) but calibrated well, with a range from 0.01 to 0.56 in calculated probabilities. In our study, the outcome of interest was ongoing pregnancy. Live birth may have been a more appropriate outcome, although only 1-2% of all ongoing pregnancies result in late miscarriage or stillbirth. The model was based on data from a single centre. The IVF model presented here is the first to calculate the chances of an ongoing pregnancy with IVF, both for the first cycle and after any number of failed cycles. The generalizability of the model to other clinics has to be evaluated more extensively in future studies (geographical validation). Centres with higher or lower success rates could use the model, after recalibration, by adjusting the intercept to reflect the IVF success rates in their centre. This project was funded by the NutsOhra foundation (Grant 1004-179). The NutsOhra foundation had no role in the development of our study, in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data; in writing of the manuscript, and in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. There were no competing interests.

Impolitic Gambling. Chance and Inequality in Contemporary Italy

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Sabino Di Chio

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The liberalization of gambling is a measure equally taken and implemented by both sides with-in the bipolar system that typified Italian politics over the years 1990-2000. For 25 years, the growing number of operators, players and betting opportunities has been blessed as a "necessity", a forced deci-sion that does not respect the reference values represented by the political forces that have in turn been part of the ruling majorities. The assumption of this paper is that the financial and regulatory consolidation path of the "lawful game" provides, both from the governmental and cultural viewpoint, a privileged indi-cation to describe the depoliticization of the Second Italian Republic compared to the conflict that should have raged within it as a competitive democracy. From the government viewpoint, the elected institutions renounced the political direction of the field to support the neo-liberal axioms that consider the accuracy of public accounting, the encouragement of consumption and the transfer of public assets to private capitals as three indisputable methods to pursue economic growth. From a cultural viewpoint, the silent consensus of Italian voters for gambling seems to reflect a more general consensus for the "chance" factor, the tolerance for uncertainty that deeply per-meates Italy as the other neo-capitalist societies.

Rectal cancer survival in the Nordic countries and Scotland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Folkesson, J.; Engholm, G.; Ehrnrooth, E.

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to present detailed population-based survival estimates four patients with a rectal adenocarcinoma, using cancer register data supplemented with clinical data. Based oil cancer register data. differences in rectal cancer survival have been reported between countries ill...... Europe. Variation ill the distribution of stage at diagnosis. initial therapy including surgical technique, and comorbidity are possible explanatory factors. Adenocarcinomas in the rectum. diagnosed in 1997 and identified in the national cancer registries in the Nordic countries and Scotland were...

Rectal cancer survival in the Nordic countries and Scotland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Folkesson, Joakim; Engholm, Gerda; Ehrnrooth, Eva

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to present detailed population-based survival estimates for patients with a rectal adenocarcinoma, using cancer register data supplemented with clinical data. Based on cancer register data, differences in rectal cancer survival have been reported between countries...... in Europe. Variation in the distribution of stage at diagnosis, initial therapy including surgical technique, and comorbidity are possible explanatory factors. Adenocarcinomas in the rectum, diagnosed in 1997 and identified in the national cancer registries in the Nordic countries and Scotland were included...

Complete hazard ranking to analyze right-censored data: An ALS survival study.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Zhengnan; Zhang, Hongjiu; Boss, Jonathan; Goutman, Stephen A; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Dinov, Ivo D; Guan, Yuanfang

2017-12-01

Survival analysis represents an important outcome measure in clinical research and clinical trials; further, survival ranking may offer additional advantages in clinical trials. In this study, we developed GuanRank, a non-parametric ranking-based technique to transform patients' survival data into a linear space of hazard ranks. The transformation enables the utilization of machine learning base-learners including Gaussian process regression, Lasso, and random forest on survival data. The method was submitted to the DREAM Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Stratification Challenge. Ranked first place, the model gave more accurate ranking predictions on the PRO-ACT ALS dataset in comparison to Cox proportional hazard model. By utilizing right-censored data in its training process, the method demonstrated its state-of-the-art predictive power in ALS survival ranking. Its feature selection identified multiple important factors, some of which conflicts with previous studies.

Educational attainment and differences in relative survival after acute myocardial infarction in Norway: a registry-based population study.

Science.gov (United States)

Klitkou, Søren Toksvig; Wangen, Knut R

2017-08-28

Although there is a broad societal interest in socioeconomic differences in survival after an acute myocardial infarction, only a few studies have investigated how such differences relate to the survival in general population groups. We aimed to investigate education-specific survival after acute myocardial infarction and to compare this with the survival of corresponding groups in the general population. Our study included the entire population of Norwegian patients admitted to hospitals for acute myocardial infarction during 2008-2010, with a 6- year follow-up period. Patient survival was measured relative to the expected survival in the general population for three educational groups: primary, secondary and tertiary. Education, sex, age and calendar year-specific expected survival were obtained from population life tables and adjusted for the presence of infarction-related mortality. Six-year patient survivals were 56.3% (55.3-57.2) and 65.5% (65.6-69.3) for the primary and tertiary educational groups (95% CIs), respectively. Also 6-year relative survival was markedly lower for the primary educational group: 70.2% (68.6-71.8) versus 81.2% (77.4-84.4). Throughout the follow-up period, patient survival tended to remain lower than the survival in the general population with the same educational background. Both patient survival and relative survival after acute myocardial infarction are positively associated with educational level. Our findings may suggest that secondary prevention has been more effective for the highly educated. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Mortality and major morbidity of very low birth weight infants in Germany 2008-2012: A report based on administrative data

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Elke eJeschke

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Expectant parents of very preterm infants, physicians and policy makers require estimates for chances of survival and survival without morbidity. Such estimates should derive from a large, reliable and contemporary data base of easily available items known at birth.Objective: To determine short-term outcome and risk factors in very low birth weight preterm infants based on administrative dataMethods: Anonymized routine data sets transmitted from hospital administrations to statutory health insurance companies were used to assess survival and survival free of major morbidities in a large cohort of preterm infants in Germany.Results: After exclusion of infants with lethal malformations, there were 13,147 infants with a birth weight below 1,500 g admitted to neonatal care 2008-2012, of whom 1,432 infants (10.9% died within 180 d. Estimated 180 d survival probabilities were 0.632 [95% confidence interval 0.583-0.677] for infants with 250-499 g birth weight, 0.817 [0.799-0.834] for 500-749 g, 0.931 [0.920-0.940] for 750-999 g, 0.973 [0.967-0.979] for 1,000-1,249 g and 0.985 [0.981-0.988] for 1,250-1,499 g. Estimated probabilities for survival without major morbidity (surgically treated intraventricular hemorrhage, necrotizing enterocolitis, intestinal perforation, or retinopathy were 0.433 [0.384-0.481] (250-499 g, 0.622 [0.600-0.643] (500-749 g, 0.836 [0.821-0.849] (750-999 g, 0.938 [0.928-0.946] (1,000-1,249 g, and 0.969 [0.964-0.974] (1,250-1,499 g, respectively. Prediction of survival and survival without major morbidities was moderately improved by adding sex, small-for-gestational-age, and severe or moderate congenital malformation, increasing ROC areas under the curve from 0.839 [0.827-0.850] to 0.862 [0.852-0.874] (survival and from 0.827 [0.822-0.842] to 0.852 [0.846-0.863] (survival without major morbidities, respectively. Conclusion: The present analysis encourages attempts to use administrative data to investigate the

Surrogacy of progression-free survival (PFS) for overall survival (OS) in esophageal cancer trials with preoperative therapy: Literature-based meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kataoka, K; Nakamura, K; Mizusawa, J; Kato, K; Eba, J; Katayama, H; Shibata, T; Fukuda, H

2017-10-01

There have been no reports evaluating progression-free survival (PFS) as a surrogate endpoint in resectable esophageal cancer. This study was conducted to evaluate the trial level correlations between PFS and overall survival (OS) in resectable esophageal cancer with preoperative therapy and to explore the potential benefit of PFS as a surrogate endpoint for OS. A systematic literature search of randomized trials with preoperative chemotherapy or preoperative chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer reported from January 1990 to September 2014 was conducted using PubMed and the Cochrane Library. Weighted linear regression using sample size of each trial as a weight was used to estimate coefficient of determination (R 2 ) within PFS and OS. The primary analysis included trials in which the HR for both PFS and OS was reported. The sensitivity analysis included trials in which either HR or median survival time of PFS and OS was reported. In the sensitivity analysis, HR was estimated from the median survival time of PFS and OS, assuming exponential distribution. Of 614 articles, 10 trials were selected for the primary analysis and 15 for the sensitivity analysis. The primary analysis did not show a correlation between treatment effects on PFS and OS (R 2 0.283, 95% CI [0.00-0.90]). The sensitivity analysis did not show an association between PFS and OS (R 2 0.084, 95% CI [0.00-0.70]). Although the number of randomized controlled trials evaluating preoperative therapy for esophageal cancer is limited at the moment, PFS is not suitable for primary endpoint as a surrogate endpoint for OS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Rare genetic variation in UNC13A may modify survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gaastra, Benjamin; Shatunov, Aleksey; Pulit, Sara; Jones, Ashley R; Sproviero, William; Gillett, Alexandra; Chen, Zhongbo; Kirby, Janine; Fogh, Isabella; Powell, John F; Leigh, P Nigel; Morrison, Karen E; Shaw, Pamela J; Shaw, Christopher E; van den Berg, Leonard H; Veldink, Jan H; Lewis, Cathryn M; Al-Chalabi, Ammar

2016-01-01

Our objective was to identify whether rare genetic variation in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) candidate survival genes modifies ALS survival. Candidate genes were selected based on evidence for modifying ALS survival. Each tail of the extreme 1.5% of survival was selected from the UK MND DNA

A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with breast cancer brain metastasis.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Zhou; Sun, Bing; Wu, Shikai; Meng, Xiangying; Cong, Yang; Shen, Ge; Song, Santai

2018-05-01

Brain metastasis (BM) is common in patients with breast cancer. Predicting patient survival is critical for the clinical management of breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM). The present study was designed to develop and evaluate a prognostic model for patients with newly diagnosed BCBM. Based on the clinical data of patients with BCBM treated in the Affiliated Hospital of Academy of Military Medical Sciences (Beijing, China) between 2002 and 2014, a nomogram was developed to predict survival using proportional hazards regression analysis. The model was validated internally by bootstrapping, and the concordance index (c-index) was calculated. A calibration curve and c-index were used to evaluate discriminatory and predictive ability, in order to compare the nomogram with widely used models, including recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), graded prognostic assessment (GPA) and breast-graded prognostic assessment (Breast-GPA). A total of 411 patients with BCBM were included in the development of this predictive model. The median overall survival time was 14.1 months. Statistically significant predictors for patient survival included biological subtype, Karnofsky performance score, leptomeningeal metastasis, extracranial metastasis, the number of brain metastases and disease-free survival. A nomogram for predicting 1- and 2-year overall survival rates was constructed, which exhibited good accuracy in predicting overall survival with a concordance index of 0.735. This model outperformed RPA, GPA and Breast-GPA, based on the comparisons of the c-indexes. The nomogram constructed based on a multiple factor analysis was able to more accurately predict the individual survival probability of patients with BCBM, compared with existing models.

Chance Encounters: Rap Music as a Relational and Pedagogical Resource in Clinical Pastoral Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilmore, Jeremy

2018-03-01

Music has long been regarded as a valuable tool for educators. Over the last three decades, rap music has grown to become a global phenomenon. However, due to historical and cultural factors, rap music is often underutilized in Clinical Pastoral Education. This article discusses the social significance of rap music, highlights how rap music informed my supervision of a clinical pastoral education student, and examines Chance the Rapper's mixtape Coloring Book as a case study on the utilization of rap music as a relational and pedagogical resource in spiritual education.

Incorporating movement patterns to improve survival estimates for juvenile bull trout

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, Tracy; Budy, Phaedra

2012-01-01

Populations of many fish species are sensitive to changes in vital rates during early life stages, but our understanding of the factors affecting growth, survival, and movement patterns is often extremely limited for juvenile fish. These critical information gaps are particularly evident for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a threatened Pacific Northwest char. We combined several active and passive mark–recapture and resight techniques to assess migration rates and estimate survival for juvenile bull trout (70–170 mm total length). We evaluated the relative performance of multiple survival estimation techniques by comparing results from a common Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, the less widely used Barker model, and a simple return rate (an index of survival). Juvenile bull trout of all sizes emigrated from their natal habitat throughout the year, and thereafter migrated up to 50 km downstream. With the CJS model, high emigration rates led to an extreme underestimate of apparent survival, a combined estimate of site fidelity and survival. In contrast, the Barker model, which allows survival and emigration to be modeled as separate parameters, produced estimates of survival that were much less biased than the return rate. Estimates of age-class-specific annual survival from the Barker model based on all available data were 0.218±0.028 (estimate±SE) for age-1 bull trout and 0.231±0.065 for age-2 bull trout. This research demonstrates the importance of incorporating movement patterns into survival analyses, and we provide one of the first field-based estimates of juvenile bull trout annual survival in relatively pristine rearing conditions. These estimates can provide a baseline for comparison with future studies in more impacted systems and will help managers develop reliable stage-structured population models to evaluate future recovery strategies.

Survival of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts through a hydropower complex.

Science.gov (United States)

Stich, D S; Bailey, M M; Zydlewski, J D

2014-10-01

This study evaluated Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolt survival through the lower Penobscot River, Maine, U.S.A., and characterized relative differences in proportional use and survival through the main-stem of the river and an alternative migration route, the Stillwater Branch. The work was conducted prior to removal of two main-stem dams and operational changes in hydropower facilities in the Stillwater Branch. Survival and proportional use of migration routes in the lower Penobscot were estimated from multistate (MS) models based on 6 years of acoustic telemetry data from 1669 smolts and 2 years of radio-telemetry data from 190 fish. A small proportion (0·12, 95% c.i. = 0·06-0·25) of smolts used the Stillwater Branch, and mean survival through the two operational dams in this part of the river was relatively high (1·00 and 0·97). Survival at Milford Dam, the dam that will remain in the main-stem of the Penobscot River, was relatively low (0·91), whereas survival through two dams that were removed was relatively high (0·99 and 0·98). Smolt survival could decrease in the Stillwater Branch with the addition of two new powerhouses while continuing to meet fish passage standards. The effects of removing two dams in the main-stem are expected to be negligible for smolt survival based on high survival observed from 2005 to 2012 at those locations. Survival through Milford Dam was been well below current regulatory standards, and thus improvement of passage at this location offers the best opportunity for improving overall smolt survival in the lower river. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Optimization of a fermented pumpkin-based beverage to improve Lactobacillus mali survival and α-glucosidase inhibitory activity: A response surface methodology approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W.Y. Koh

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research was to develop an optimum fermentation and composition model for a new fermented pumpkin-based beverage with high probiotic survival and α-glucosidase inhibitory activity. Relationship between fermentation temperature, inoculum and ingredient concentration with response variables (fermentation time at the fermentation endpoint pH 4.5, survival rate of Lactobacillus mali K8 in pumpkin-based beverage treated with simulated gastrointestinal tract enzyme fluids, α-glucosidase inhibitory activity and sensory overall acceptability after 4 weeks of refrigerated storage was investigated using response surface methodology. Optimal formulation was obtained at an approximation of 40% pumpkin puree concentration, 8 Log CFU/mL inoculum and at 35 °C. The product derived from this optimum formula reached the fermentation endpoint after 28.34 ± 0.10 h and the quality change during 4 weeks storage was studied. The product achieved 88.56 ± 0.67% of L. mali survival after treatment with simulated gastric and intestinal juices; demonstrated 95.89 ± 0.30% α-glucosidase inhibitory activity, as well as scored 6.99 ± 0.40 on sensory overall acceptability after 4 weeks of storage. These findings illustrated that the model is effective in improving probiotic survival and α-glucosidase inhibitory activity with excellent sensory acceptability, thus may offer a dietary means for the management of hyperglycaemia. Keywords: Probiotics, Response surface methodology, Box-Behnken, Hyperglycaemia, Functional food

Survival of spores of the UV-resistant Bacillus subtilis strain MW01 after exposure to low-earth orbit and simulated martian conditions: data from the space experiment ADAPT on EXPOSE-E.

Science.gov (United States)

Wassmann, Marko; Moeller, Ralf; Rabbow, Elke; Panitz, Corinna; Horneck, Gerda; Reitz, Günther; Douki, Thierry; Cadet, Jean; Stan-Lotter, Helga; Cockell, Charles S; Rettberg, Petra

2012-05-01

In the space experiment "Molecular adaptation strategies of microorganisms to different space and planetary UV climate conditions" (ADAPT), bacterial endospores of the highly UV-resistant Bacillus subtilis strain MW01 were exposed to low-Earth orbit (LEO) and simulated martian surface conditions for 559 days on board the European Space Agency's exposure facility EXPOSE-E, mounted outside the International Space Station. The survival of B. subtilis MW01 spores from both assays (LEO and simulated martian conditions) was determined by a colony-formation assay after retrieval. It was clearly shown that solar extraterrestrial UV radiation (λ≥110 nm) as well as the martian UV spectrum (λ≥200 nm) was the most deleterious factor applied; in some samples only a few spore survivors were recovered from B. subtilis MW01 spores exposed in monolayers. However, if shielded from solar irradiation, about 8% of MW01 spores survived in LEO conditions, and 100% survived in simulated martian conditions, compared to the laboratory controls. The results demonstrate the effect of shielding against the high inactivation potential of extraterrestrial solar UV radiation, which limits the chances of survival of even the highly UV-resistant strain of B. subtilis MW01 in the harsh environments of outer space and the martian surface.

Survival in common cancers defined by risk and survival of family members

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianguang Ji

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Studies on survival between familial and sporadic cancers have been inconclusive and only recent data on a limited number of cancers are available on the concordance of survival between family members. In this review, we address these questions by evaluating the published and unpublished data from the nation-wide Swedish Family-Cancer Database and a total of 13 cancer sites were assessed. Using sporadic cancer as reference, HRs were close to 1.0 for most of the familial cancers in both the offspring and parental generations, which suggested that survival in patients with familial and sporadic cancers was equal, with an exception for ovarian cancer with a worse prognosis. Compared to offspring whose parents had a poor survival, those with a good parental survival had a decreased risk of death for most cancers and HR was significantly decreased for cancers in the breast, prostate, bladder, and kidney. For colorectal and nervous system cancers, favorable survival between the generations showed a borderline significance. These data are consistent in showing that both good and poor survival in certain cancers aggregate in families. Genetic factors are likely to contribute to the results. These observations call for intensified efforts to consider heritability in survival as one mechanism regulating prognosis in cancer patients.

The narrative of 'equality of chances' as an approach to interpreting PIAAC results on perceived political efficacy, social trust and volunteering and the quest for political literacy

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Anke Grotlüschen

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The article focuses on the theoretically and empirically addressed question of whether workforce literacy strategies in research and policies may tend to exclude relevant fields of literacy, which have emancipatory chances for participants, but which regularly fail to include low qualified or literate adults (Hufer, 2013, namely the area of basic civic education or political literacy. First, a theoretical discussion makes use of recent publications. The relevance of basic civic education will be discussed using contemporary theories, which point at a crisis of democracy and explain this by the spread of income and capital (Piketty, 2014 and its legitimation (Rosanvallon, 2013. Further detail is provided by using Rosanvallons criticism of the term 'equality of chances'. The everyday unfairness, covered by the narrative of equal chances, leads to peoples' disengagement from reciprocal relations and disintegration of solidarity within a society. This theoretical approach will then be supplemented by empirical data. The empirical research question is: Do adults with low literacy skills agree less often on feelings of political efficacy and social trust than adults with high literacy skills? Do they engage less often in volunteering than adults with high literacy skills? This is based the PIAAC 2012 dataset which relates literacy on the one hand with variables of political efficacy, social trust and volunteering on the other hand. Results will be compared with volunteer and youth surveys. Furthermore, the connection of a 'Nouvelle Droite' (contemporary right-wing populism and peoples' low feelings of political efficacy will be reflected in order to refute the stereotype that marginalized groups automatically become voters of right-wing populists.

Survivability of systems under multiple factor impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korczak, Edward; Levitin, Gregory

2007-01-01

The paper considers vulnerable multi-state series-parallel systems operating under influence of external impacts. Both the external impacts and internal failures affect system survivability, which is determined as the probability of meeting a given demand. The external impacts are characterized by several destructive factors affecting the system or its parts simultaneously. In order to increase the system's survivability a multilevel protection against the destructive factors can be applied to its subsystems. In such systems, the protected subsystems can be destroyed only if all of the levels of their protection are destroyed. The paper presents an algorithm for evaluating the survivability of series-parallel systems with arbitrary configuration of multilevel protection against multiple destructive factor impacts. The algorithm is based on a composition of Boolean and the Universal Generating Function techniques. Illustrative examples are presented

Increasing incidence and survival in oral cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karnov, Kirstine Kim Schmidt; Grønhøj, Christian; Jensen, David Hebbelstrup

2017-01-01

Background: Oral carcinomas (OCs) make up a significant proportion of head and neck carcinomas (HNCs) and are an important cause of morbidity and mortality globally. The purpose of this population-based study was to determine trends in incidence and survival in OC in the Danish population from 1980...... to 2014. Material and methods: This study covered all patients registered in the nationwide Danish cancer registry (DCR) in the period 1980–2014. Age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) per 100,000 and annual percentage change (APC) were evaluated. Also, 5-year overall survival (OS) was calculated with Cox......-standardized incidence of OC during the last 30 years in Denmark, and also an improvement in survival. The 5-year OS was significantly better in recent years even when we adjusted the analysis for relevant covariates....

Survival and Transcendence of Transnational Indigenous Latina Immigrants (ILIs in the US

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Margarita Machado-Casas

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Transnational indigenous Latino immigrants today seem to live multiple lives across multiple borders. Based on a 3-year Mix methods research study that took place in a new immigrant-receiving community in North Carolina, the manuscript describes the experiences of Indigenous Latina Immigrants (ILIs living in the United States, specifically pedagogies of survival based on fluid social identities. The indigenous women who took part in this study had to adopt fluid unknown identities both in the home for cultural survival, and also outside the home (external identities for physical and social survival, often in hostile environments. In addition, it raises questions about the ways multilingualism affects border mobility and transnationality as well as how indigenous Latina immigrants become Camaleónas guerreras (Chameleon Warriors who use “critical survival tools” as a transnational bridge to facilitate their survival in a hostile US environment, the community, and in schools.

Complete hazard ranking to analyze right-censored data: An ALS survival study.

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Zhengnan Huang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Survival analysis represents an important outcome measure in clinical research and clinical trials; further, survival ranking may offer additional advantages in clinical trials. In this study, we developed GuanRank, a non-parametric ranking-based technique to transform patients' survival data into a linear space of hazard ranks. The transformation enables the utilization of machine learning base-learners including Gaussian process regression, Lasso, and random forest on survival data. The method was submitted to the DREAM Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS Stratification Challenge. Ranked first place, the model gave more accurate ranking predictions on the PRO-ACT ALS dataset in comparison to Cox proportional hazard model. By utilizing right-censored data in its training process, the method demonstrated its state-of-the-art predictive power in ALS survival ranking. Its feature selection identified multiple important factors, some of which conflicts with previous studies.

Rural-urban migration and child survival in urban Bangladesh: are the urban migrants and poor disadvantaged?

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Islam, M Mazharul; Azad, Kazi Md Abul Kalam

2008-01-01

This paper analyses the levels and trends of childhood mortality in urban Bangladesh, and examines whether children's survival chances are poorer among the urban migrants and urban poor. It also examines the determinants of child survival in urban Bangladesh. Data come from the 1999-2000 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. The results indicate that, although the indices of infant and child mortality are consistently better in urban areas, the urban-rural differentials in childhood mortality have diminished in recent years. The study identifies two distinct child morality regimes in urban Bangladesh: one for urban natives and one for rural-urban migrants. Under-five mortality is higher among children born to urban migrants compared with children born to life-long urban natives (102 and 62 per 1000 live births, respectively). The migrant-native mortality differentials more-or-less correspond with the differences in socioeconomic status. Like childhood mortality rates, rural-urban migrants seem to be moderately disadvantaged by economic status compared with their urban native counterparts. Within the urban areas, the child survival status is even worse among the migrant poor than among the average urban poor, especially recent migrants. This poor-non-poor differential in childhood mortality is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. The study findings indicate that rapid growth of the urban population in recent years due to rural-to-urban migration, coupled with higher risk of mortality among migrant's children, may be considered as one of the major explanations for slower decline in under-five mortality in urban Bangladesh, thus diminishing urban-rural differentials in childhood mortality in Bangladesh. The study demonstrates that housing conditions and access to safe drinking water and hygienic toilet facilities are the most critical determinants of child survival in urban areas, even after controlling for migration status. The findings of the study may

On the Survival Time of a Duplex System: A Sokhotski-Plemelj Problem

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Edmond J. Vanderperre

2008-12-01

Full Text Available We analyze the survival time of a renewable duplex system characterized by warm standby and subjected to a priority rule. In order to obtain the Laplace transform of the survival function, we employ a stochastic process endowed with time-dependent transition measures satisfying coupled partial differential equations. The solution procedure is based on the theory of sectionally holomorphic functions combined with the notion of dual transforms. Finally, we introduce a security interval related to a prescribed security level and a suitable risk criterion based on the survival function of the system. As an example, we consider the particular case of deterministic repair. A computer-plotted graph displays the survival function together with the security interval corresponding to a security level of 90%.

A Hyaluronan-Based Injectable Hydrogel Improves the Survival and Integration of Stem Cell Progeny following Transplantation

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Brian G. Ballios

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The utility of stem cells and their progeny in adult transplantation models has been limited by poor survival and integration. We designed an injectable and bioresorbable hydrogel blend of hyaluronan and methylcellulose (HAMC and tested it with two cell types in two animal models, thereby gaining an understanding of its general applicability for enhanced cell distribution, survival, integration, and functional repair relative to conventional cell delivery in saline. HAMC improves cell survival and integration of retinal stem cell (RSC-derived rods in the retina. The pro-survival mechanism of HAMC is ascribed to the interaction of the CD44 receptor with HA. Transient disruption of the retinal outer limiting membrane, combined with HAMC delivery, results in significantly improved rod survival and visual function. HAMC also improves the distribution, viability, and functional repair of neural stem and progenitor cells (NSCs. The HAMC delivery system improves cell transplantation efficacy in two CNS models, suggesting broad applicability.

Trends in scale and shape of survival curves.

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Weon, Byung Mook; Je, Jung Ho

2012-01-01

The ageing of the population is an issue in wealthy countries worldwide because of increasing costs for health care and welfare. Survival curves taken from demographic life tables may help shed light on the hypotheses that humans are living longer and that human populations are growing older. We describe a methodology that enables us to obtain separate measurements of scale and shape variances in survival curves. Specifically, 'living longer' is associated with the scale variance of survival curves, whereas 'growing older' is associated with the shape variance. We show how the scale and shape of survival curves have changed over time during recent decades, based on period and cohort female life tables for selected wealthy countries. Our methodology will be useful for performing better tracking of ageing statistics and it is possible that this methodology can help identify the causes of current trends in human ageing.

Cancer survival classification using integrated data sets and intermediate information.

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Kim, Shinuk; Park, Taesung; Kon, Mark

2014-09-01

Although numerous studies related to cancer survival have been published, increasing the prediction accuracy of survival classes still remains a challenge. Integration of different data sets, such as microRNA (miRNA) and mRNA, might increase the accuracy of survival class prediction. Therefore, we suggested a machine learning (ML) approach to integrate different data sets, and developed a novel method based on feature selection with Cox proportional hazard regression model (FSCOX) to improve the prediction of cancer survival time. FSCOX provides us with intermediate survival information, which is usually discarded when separating survival into 2 groups (short- and long-term), and allows us to perform survival analysis. We used an ML-based protocol for feature selection, integrating information from miRNA and mRNA expression profiles at the feature level. To predict survival phenotypes, we used the following classifiers, first, existing ML methods, support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF), second, a new median-based classifier using FSCOX (FSCOX_median), and third, an SVM classifier using FSCOX (FSCOX_SVM). We compared these methods using 3 types of cancer tissue data sets: (i) miRNA expression, (ii) mRNA expression, and (iii) combined miRNA and mRNA expression. The latter data set included features selected either from the combined miRNA/mRNA profile or independently from miRNAs and mRNAs profiles (IFS). In the ovarian data set, the accuracy of survival classification using the combined miRNA/mRNA profiles with IFS was 75% using RF, 86.36% using SVM, 84.09% using FSCOX_median, and 88.64% using FSCOX_SVM with a balanced 22 short-term and 22 long-term survivor data set. These accuracies are higher than those using miRNA alone (70.45%, RF; 75%, SVM; 75%, FSCOX_median; and 75%, FSCOX_SVM) or mRNA alone (65.91%, RF; 63.64%, SVM; 72.73%, FSCOX_median; and 70.45%, FSCOX_SVM). Similarly in the glioblastoma multiforme data, the accuracy of miRNA/mRNA using IFS

Survival benefit of postoperative radiation in papillary meningioma: Analysis of the National Cancer Data Base.

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Sumner, Whitney A; Amini, Arya; Hankinson, Todd C; Foreman, Nicholas K; Gaspar, Laurie E; Kavanagh, Brian D; Karam, Sana D; Rusthoven, Chad G; Liu, Arthur K

2017-01-01

Papillary meningioma represents a rare subset of World Health Organization (WHO) Grade III meningioma that portends an overall poor prognosis. There is relatively limited data regarding the benefit of postoperative radiation therapy (PORT). We used the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to compare overall survival (OS) outcomes of surgically resected papillary meningioma cases undergoing PORT compared to post-operative observation. The NCDB was queried for patients with papillary meningioma, diagnosed between 2004 and 2013, who underwent upfront surgery with or without PORT. Overall survival (OS) was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate (UVA) and multivariate (MVA) analyses were performed. In total, 190 patients were identified; 89 patients underwent PORT, 101 patients were observed. Eleven patients received chemotherapy (6 with PORT, 5 without). 2-Year OS was significantly improved with PORT vs. no PORT (93.0% vs. 74.4%), as was 5-year OS (78.5% vs. 62.5%) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27-0.85; p  = 0.01). On MVA, patients receiving PORT had improved OS compared to observation (HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.22-0.76; p  = 0.005). On subset analysis by age group, the benefit of PORT vs. no PORT was significant in patients ≤18 years ( n  = 13), with 2-year OS of 85.7% vs. 50.0% (HR, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.01-0.80; p  = 0.032) and for patients >18 years ( n  = 184), with 2-year OS of 94.7% vs. 76.1% (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.31-1.00; p  = 0.049), respectively. In this large contemporary analysis, PORT was associated with improved survival for both adult and pediatric patients with papillary meningioma. PORT should be considered in those who present with this rare, aggressive tumor.

Improved survival after rectal cancer in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bülow, S; Harling, H; Iversen, L H

2010-01-01

Objective In 1995, an analysis showed an inferior prognosis after rectal cancer in Denmark compared with the other Scandinavian countries. The Danish Colorectal Cancer Group (DCCG) was established with the aim of improving the prognosis, and in this study we present a survival analysis of patients...... treated from 1994 to 2006. Method The study was based on the National Rectal Cancer Registry and the National Colorectal Cancer Database, supplemented with data from the Central Population Registry. The analysis included actuarial overall and relative survival. Results A total of 10 632 patients were...

Discussions on attitude determination and control system for micro/nano/pico-satellites considering survivability based on Hodoyoshi-3 and 4 experiences

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Nakasuka, Shinichi; Miyata, Kikuko; Tsuruda, Yoshihiro; Aoyanagi, Yoshihide; Matsumoto, Takeshi

2018-04-01

The recent advancement of micro/nano/pico-satellites technologies encourages many universities to develop three axis stabilized satellites. As three axis stabilization is high level technology requiring the proper functioning of various sensors, actuators and control software, many early satellites failed in their initial operation phase because of shortage of solar power generation or inability to realize the initial step of missions because of unexpected attitude control system performance. These results come from failure to design the satellite attitude determination and control system (ADCS) appropriately and not considering "satellite survivability." ADCS should be designed such that even if some sensors or actuators cannot work as expected, the satellite can survive and carry out some of its missions, even if not full. This paper discusses how to realize ADCS while taking satellite survivability into account, based on our experiences of design and in-orbit operations of Hodoyoshi-3 and 4 satellites launched in 2014, which suffered from various component anomalies but could complete their missions.

Chance performance and floor effects: threats to the validity of the Wechsler Memory Scale--fourth edition designs subtest.

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Martin, Phillip K; Schroeder, Ryan W

2014-06-01

The Designs subtest allows for accumulation of raw score points by chance alone, creating the potential for artificially inflated performances, especially in older patients. A random number generator was used to simulate the random selection and placement of cards by 100 test naive participants, resulting in a mean raw score of 36.26 (SD = 3.86). This resulted in relatively high-scaled scores in the 45-54, 55-64, and 65-69 age groups on Designs II. In the latter age group, in particular, the mean simulated performance resulted in a scaled score of 7, with scores 1 SD below and above the performance mean translating to scaled scores of 5 and 8, respectively. The findings indicate that clinicians should use caution when interpreting Designs II performance in these age groups, as our simulations demonstrated that low average to average range scores occur frequently when patients are relying solely on chance performance. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Marital status and survival of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study.

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Shi, Xiao; Zhang, Ting-Ting; Hu, Wei-Ping; Ji, Qing-Hai

2017-04-25

The relationship between marital status and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) survival has not been explored. The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of marital status on OCSCC survival and investigate the potential mechanisms. Married patients had better 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) (66.7% vs 54.9%) and 5-year overall survival (OS) (56.0% vs 41.1%). In multivariate Cox regression models, unmarried patients also showed higher mortality risk for both CSS (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.260, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.187-1.339, P married patients were more likely to be diagnosed at earlier stage (P Married patients still demonstrated better prognosis in the 1:1 matched group analysis (CSS: 62.9% vs 60.8%, OS: 52.3% vs 46.5%). 11022 eligible OCSCC patients were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, including 5902 married and 5120 unmarried individuals. Kaplan-Meier analysis, Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to analyze survival and mortality risk. Influence of marital status on stage, age at diagnosis and selection of treatment was determined by binomial and multinomial logistic regression. Propensity score matching method was adopted to perform a 1:1 matched cohort. Marriage has an independently protective effect on OCSCC survival. Earlier diagnosis and more sufficient treatment are possible explanations. Besides, even after 1:1 matching, survival advantage of married group still exists, indicating that spousal support from other aspects may also play an important role.

Trends in colorectal cancer survival in northern Denmark: 1985-2004

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Lene Hjerrild; Nørgaard, Mette; Jepsen, Peter

2007-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The prognosis for colorectal cancer (CRC) is less favourable in Denmark than in neighbouring countries. To improve cancer treatment in Denmark, a National Cancer Plan was proposed in 2000. We conducted this population-based study to monitor recent trends in CRC survival and mortality...... for age and gender. A total of 19,515 CRC patients were identified and linked with the Central Office of Civil Registration to ascertain survival through January 2005. Results: From 1985 to 2004, 1-year and 5-year survival improved both for patients with colon and rectal cancer. From 1995-1999 to 2000......-2004, overall 1-year survival of 65% for colon cancer did not improve, and some age groups experienced a decreasing 1-year survival probability. For rectal cancer, overall 1-year survival increased from 71% in 1995-1999 to 74% in 2000-2004. Using 1985-1989 as reference period, 30-day mortality did not decrease...

A survival analysis of the liver-first reversed management of advanced simultaneous colorectal liver metastases: a LiverMetSurvey-based study.

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Andres, Axel; Toso, Christian; Adam, Rene; Barroso, Eduardo; Hubert, Catherine; Capussotti, Lorenzo; Gerstel, Eric; Roth, Arnaud; Majno, Pietro E; Mentha, Gilles

2012-11-01

Liver-first reversed management (RM) for the treatment of patients with simultaneous colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) includes liver-directed chemotherapy, the resection of the CRLM, and the subsequent resection of the primary cancer. Retrospective data have shown that up to 80% of patients can successfully undergo a complete RM, whereas less than 30% of those undergoing classical management (CM) do so. This registry-based study compared the 2 approaches. The study was based on the LiverMetSurvey (January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010) and included patients with 2 or more metastases. All patients had irinotecan and/or oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy before liver surgery. Patients undergoing simultaneous liver and colorectal surgery were excluded. A total of 787 patients were included: 729 in the CM group and 58 in the RM group. Patients in the 2 groups had similar numbers of metastases (4.20 vs 4.80 for RM and CM, P = 0.231) and Fong scores of 3 or more (79% vs 87%, P = 0.164). Rectal cancer, neoadjuvant rectal radiotherapy, and the use of combined irinotecan/oxaliplatin chemotherapy were more frequent in the RM group (P < 0.001), whereas colorectal lymph node involvement was more frequent in the CM group (P < 0.001). Overall survival and disease-free survival were similar in the RM and CM groups (48% vs 46% at 5 years, P = 0.965 and 30% vs 26%, P = 0.992). Classical and reversed managements of metastatic liver disease in colorectal cancer are associated with similar survival when successfully completed.

Addressing issues associated with evaluating prediction models for survival endpoints based on the concordance statistic.

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Wang, Ming; Long, Qi

2016-09-01

Prediction models for disease risk and prognosis play an important role in biomedical research, and evaluating their predictive accuracy in the presence of censored data is of substantial interest. The standard concordance (c) statistic has been extended to provide a summary measure of predictive accuracy for survival models. Motivated by a prostate cancer study, we address several issues associated with evaluating survival prediction models based on c-statistic with a focus on estimators using the technique of inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW). Compared to the existing work, we provide complete results on the asymptotic properties of the IPCW estimators under the assumption of coarsening at random (CAR), and propose a sensitivity analysis under the mechanism of noncoarsening at random (NCAR). In addition, we extend the IPCW approach as well as the sensitivity analysis to high-dimensional settings. The predictive accuracy of prediction models for cancer recurrence after prostatectomy is assessed by applying the proposed approaches. We find that the estimated predictive accuracy for the models in consideration is sensitive to NCAR assumption, and thus identify the best predictive model. Finally, we further evaluate the performance of the proposed methods in both settings of low-dimensional and high-dimensional data under CAR and NCAR through simulations. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Assessing survivability to support power grid investment decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koziolek, Anne; Avritzer, Alberto; Suresh, Sindhu; Menasché, Daniel S.; Diniz, Morganna; Souza e Silva, Edmundo de; Leão, Rosa M.; Trivedi, Kishor; Happe, Lucia

2016-01-01

The reliability of power grids has been subject of study for the past few decades. Traditionally, detailed models are used to assess how the system behaves after failures. Such models, based on power flow analysis and detailed simulations, yield accurate characterizations of the system under study. However, they fall short on scalability. In this paper, we propose an efficient and scalable approach to assess the survivability of power systems. Our approach takes into account the phased-recovery of the system after a failure occurs. The proposed phased-recovery model yields metrics such as the expected accumulated energy not supplied between failure and full recovery. Leveraging the predictive power of the model, we use it as part of an optimization framework to assist in investment decisions. Given a budget and an initial circuit to be upgraded, we propose heuristics to sample the solution space in a principled way accounting for survivability-related metrics. We have evaluated the feasibility of this approach by applying it to the design of a benchmark distribution automation circuit. Our empirical results indicate that the combination of survivability and power flow analysis can provide meaningful investment decision support for power systems engineers. - Highlights: • We propose metrics and models for scalable survivability analysis of power systems. • The survivability model captures the system phased-recovery, from failure to repair. • The survivability model is used as a building block of an optimization framework. • Heuristics assist in investment options accounting for survivability-related metrics.

The Relative Value of Investment in "Second Chance" Educational Opportunities for Adults in Sweden and Australia: A Comparative Analysis

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Stehlik, Tom; Christie, Michael

2007-01-01

The article presents a comparative analysis of educational policy and provision in Sweden and Australia, with particular emphasis on the relative investment in continuing and further education in both countries. The authors investigate the extent to which further education opportunities provide a "second chance" at learning for adults…

A UTÓPICA APLICAÇÃO DA TEORIA DA PERDA DE UMA CHANCE NO ÂMBITO DO DIREITO MÉDICO:UMA ANÁLISE DA JURISPRUDÊNCIA DO TJRS, TJPR E TJPE/THE UTOPIAN APPLICATION OF THE LOSS OF CHANCE DOCTRINE IN MEDICAL LAW:AN ANALISYS OF THE CASES JUDGED BY TJRS TJPR AND TJPE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Igor de Lucena Mascarenhas

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This essay analyzes the application of the Loss of Chance Doctrine in cases of medical civil liability. The growth of lawsuits due to medical malpractice allowed the application of multiple theories to solve the civil liability of the physician. Through a bibliographical analysis, it was observed that the Loss of Chance Doctrine cannot be applied in the medical law, because it uses data observed in studies that may not be the same of the real case. Thus, the objectification of the human body, a subjective element, demonstrates that the nuclear element of the theory is incompatible with the medical law. It was observed that 80% of judicial decisions of TJPR, TJRS and TJPE between 01.01.2014 and 09.22.2015, did not include the percentage of the chance, a violation to the contradictory and full defense. Finally, it is proposed that the percentage of recovering and healing can be used to establish the indemnity, but cannot be the only element of the judicial consideration.

Apparent survival rates of forest birds in eastern Ecuador revisited: improvement in precision but no change in estimates.

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John G Blake

Full Text Available Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relatively few sites and species. Previously, capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate apparent survival of 31 species (30 passerines, 1 Trochilidae from eastern Ecuador based on data collected from 2001 to 2006. Here, estimates are updated with data from 2001-2012 to determine how additional years of data affect estimates; estimates for six additional species are provided. Models assuming constant survival had highest support for 19 of 31 species when based on 12 years of data compared to 27 when based on six; models incorporating effects of transients had the highest support for 12 of 31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supported model (based on model averaging, when appropriate was 0.59 (± 0.02 SE across 30 species of passerines when based on 12 years and 0.57 (± 0.02 when based on six. Standard errors of survival estimates based on 12 years were approximately half those based on six years. Of 31 species in both data sets, estimates of apparent survival were somewhat lower for 13, somewhat higher for 17, and remained unchanged for one; confidence intervals for estimates based on six and 12 years of data overlapped for all species. Results indicate that estimates of apparent survival are comparable but more precise when based on longer-term data sets; standard error of the estimates was negatively correlated with numbers of captures (rs  = -0.72 and recaptures (rs  = -0.93, P<0.001 in both cases. Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival may be obtained with relatively few years of data if sample sizes are sufficient.

Second chance for a totally thoracoscopic video-assisted pulmonary vein isolation for atrial fibrillation.

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Driessen, Antoine H G; Krul, Sébastien P J; de Mol, Bas A J M; de Groot, Joris R

2012-06-01

Thoracoscopic surgery for atrial fibrillation (AF) is an attractive and emerging treatment modality. However, when a bleeding occurs access for hemostasis is limited. Therefore, a sternotomy might be necessary to stop the bleeding and continue the operation. We report 2 patients with a periprocedural bleeding in whom sternotomy could be prevented by tamponading the bleeding, interrupting the operation and resuming 3 weeks later. Our cases show that sternotomies can be prevented and that there is a second chance for thoracoscopic surgery for AF. Copyright © 2012 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comorbidity and cervical cancer survival of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian women: A semi-national registry-based cohort study (2003-2012).

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Diaz, Abbey; Baade, Peter D; Valery, Patricia C; Whop, Lisa J; Moore, Suzanne P; Cunningham, Joan; Garvey, Gail; Brotherton, Julia M L; O'Connell, Dianne L; Canfell, Karen; Sarfati, Diana; Roder, David; Buckley, Elizabeth; Condon, John R

2018-01-01

Little is known about the impact of comorbidity on cervical cancer survival in Australian women, including whether Indigenous women's higher prevalence of comorbidity contributes to their lower survival compared to non-Indigenous women. Data for cervical cancers diagnosed in 2003-2012 were extracted from six Australian state-based cancer registries and linked to hospital inpatient records to identify comorbidity diagnoses. Five-year cause-specific and all-cause survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Flexible parametric models were used to estimate excess cause-specific mortality by Charlson comorbidity index score (0,1,2+), for Indigenous women compared to non-Indigenous women. Of 4,467 women, Indigenous women (4.4%) compared to non-Indigenous women had more comorbidity at diagnosis (score ≥1: 24.2% vs. 10.0%) and lower five-year cause-specific survival (60.2% vs. 76.6%). Comorbidity was associated with increased cervical cancer mortality for non-Indigenous women, but there was no evidence of such a relationship for Indigenous women. There was an 18% reduction in the Indigenous: non-Indigenous hazard ratio (excess mortality) when comorbidity was included in the model, yet this reduction was not statistically significant. The excess mortality for Indigenous women was only evident among those without comorbidity (Indigenous: non-Indigenous HR 2.5, 95%CI 1.9-3.4), indicating that factors other than those measured in this study are contributing to the differential. In a subgroup of New South Wales women, comorbidity was associated with advanced-stage cancer, which in turn was associated with elevated cervical cancer mortality. Survival was lowest for women with comorbidity. However, there wasn't a clear comorbidity-survival gradient for Indigenous women. Further investigation of potential drivers of the cervical cancer survival differentials is warranted. The results highlight the need for cancer care guidelines and multidisciplinary

Comorbidity and cervical cancer survival of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian women: A semi-national registry-based cohort study (2003-2012.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abbey Diaz

Full Text Available Little is known about the impact of comorbidity on cervical cancer survival in Australian women, including whether Indigenous women's higher prevalence of comorbidity contributes to their lower survival compared to non-Indigenous women.Data for cervical cancers diagnosed in 2003-2012 were extracted from six Australian state-based cancer registries and linked to hospital inpatient records to identify comorbidity diagnoses. Five-year cause-specific and all-cause survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Flexible parametric models were used to estimate excess cause-specific mortality by Charlson comorbidity index score (0,1,2+, for Indigenous women compared to non-Indigenous women.Of 4,467 women, Indigenous women (4.4% compared to non-Indigenous women had more comorbidity at diagnosis (score ≥1: 24.2% vs. 10.0% and lower five-year cause-specific survival (60.2% vs. 76.6%. Comorbidity was associated with increased cervical cancer mortality for non-Indigenous women, but there was no evidence of such a relationship for Indigenous women. There was an 18% reduction in the Indigenous: non-Indigenous hazard ratio (excess mortality when comorbidity was included in the model, yet this reduction was not statistically significant. The excess mortality for Indigenous women was only evident among those without comorbidity (Indigenous: non-Indigenous HR 2.5, 95%CI 1.9-3.4, indicating that factors other than those measured in this study are contributing to the differential. In a subgroup of New South Wales women, comorbidity was associated with advanced-stage cancer, which in turn was associated with elevated cervical cancer mortality.Survival was lowest for women with comorbidity. However, there wasn't a clear comorbidity-survival gradient for Indigenous women. Further investigation of potential drivers of the cervical cancer survival differentials is warranted.The results highlight the need for cancer care guidelines and

Neighborhood influences on recreational physical activity and survival after breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Keegan, Theresa H M; Shariff-Marco, Salma; Sangaramoorthy, Meera; Koo, Jocelyn; Hertz, Andrew; Schupp, Clayton W; Yang, Juan; John, Esther M; Gomez, Scarlett L

2014-10-01

Higher levels of physical activity have been associated with improved survival after breast cancer diagnosis. However, no previous studies have considered the influence of the social and built environment on physical activity and survival among breast cancer patients. Our study included 4,345 women diagnosed with breast cancer (1995-2008) from two population-based studies conducted in the San Francisco Bay Area. We examined questionnaire-based moderate/strenuous recreational physical activity during the 3 years before diagnosis. Neighborhood characteristics were based on data from the 2000 US Census, business listings, parks, farmers' markets, and Department of Transportation. Survival was evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, with follow-up through 2009. Women residing in neighborhoods with no fast-food restaurants (vs. fewer fast-food restaurants) to other restaurants, high traffic density, and a high percentage of foreign-born residents were less likely to meet physical activity recommendations set by the American Cancer Society. Women who were not recreationally physically active had a 22% higher risk of death from any cause than women that were the most active. Poorer overall survival was associated with lower neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) (p(trend) = 0.02), whereas better breast cancer-specific survival was associated with a lack of parks, especially among women in high-SES neighborhoods. Certain aspects of the neighborhood have independent associations with recreational physical activity among breast cancer patients and their survival. Considering neighborhood factors may aide in the design of more effective, tailored physical activity programs for breast cancer survivors.

The Role of Chance Events in the School-to-Work Transition: The Influence of Demographic, Personality and Career Development Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Hirschi, Andreas

2010-01-01

Chance events are considered important in career development, yet little empirical research is available on their predictors and consequences. The present study investigated socio-demographic (gender, nationality, school-type), personality (openness, locus of control) and career development variables (career decidedness, career planning) in…

Poor survival of treatment-related acute nonlymphocytic leukemia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neugut, A.I.; Nieves, J.; Murray, T.; Tsai, Weiyann; Robinson, E.

1990-01-01

Population-based data on more than 1 million patients registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results Program of the National Cancer Institute, 1973-1984, were analyzed to determine the survival of patients with de novo acute nonlymphocytic leukemia (ANLL) and following a first primary tumor treated (with chemotherapy and/or radiation therapy) or untreated. Cases that occurred within 12 months of the first malignant neoplasm were excluded. Survival was estimated using Cox proportional-hazards modeling, with age, sex, and specific type of ANLL as covariates. The 6,271 patients with de novo ANLL had an estimated 12-month survival of 30%, while the 107 patients with treatment-related ANLL had an estimated 12-month survival of 10%. The authors conclude that ANLL that occurs after chemotherapy or radiation therapy is biologically more aggressive and/or resistant to therapy than spontaneous ANLL. This provides a rationale for current studies on treatment-induced cellular changes and on more aggressive therapy for these patients

Multinationals and plant survival

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bandick, Roger

2010-01-01

The aim of this paper is twofold: first, to investigate how different ownership structures affect plant survival, and second, to analyze how the presence of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) affects domestic plants’ survival. Using a unique and detailed data set on the Swedish manufacturing...... sector, I am able to separate plants into those owned by foreign MNEs, domestic MNEs, exporting non-MNEs, and purely domestic firms. In line with previous findings, the result, when conditioned on other factors affecting survival, shows that foreign MNE plants have lower survival rates than non......-MNE plants. However, separating the non-MNEs into exporters and non-exporters, the result shows that foreign MNE plants have higher survival rates than non-exporting non-MNEs, while the survival rates of foreign MNE plants and exporting non-MNE plants do not seem to differ. Moreover, the simple non...

Survival from tumours of the central nervous system in Danish children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erdmann, Friederike; Winther, Jeanette Falck; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg

2018-01-01

associations between survival and any family characteristic. Analyses by CNS tumour subtypes showed reduced survival for children with glioma when living outside of Copenhagen (HR 1.55; CI 1.03; 2.35). For embryonal CNS tumours, the number of full siblings was associated with worse survival (HR for having 3......Little is known about social inequalities in childhood cancer survival. We investigated the impact of family circumstances on survival from paediatric central nervous system (CNS) tumours in a nationwide, register-based cohort of Danish children. All children born between 1973 and 2006...... and diagnosed with a CNS tumour before the age of 20 years (N = 1,261) were followed until 10 years from diagnosis. Using Cox proportional hazards models, the impact of various family characteristics on overall survival was estimated. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all CNS tumours combined did not show strong...

The cosmological model of eternal inflation and the transition from chance to biological evolution in the history of life

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koonin Eugene V

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent developments in cosmology radically change the conception of the universe as well as the very notions of "probable" and "possible". The model of eternal inflation implies that all macroscopic histories permitted by laws of physics are repeated an infinite number of times in the infinite multiverse. In contrast to the traditional cosmological models of a single, finite universe, this worldview provides for the origin of an infinite number of complex systems by chance, even as the probability of complexity emerging in any given region of the multiverse is extremely low. This change in perspective has profound implications for the history of any phenomenon, and life on earth cannot be an exception. Hypothesis Origin of life is a chicken and egg problem: for biological evolution that is governed, primarily, by natural selection, to take off, efficient systems for replication and translation are required, but even barebones cores of these systems appear to be products of extensive selection. The currently favored (partial solution is an RNA world without proteins in which replication is catalyzed by ribozymes and which serves as the cradle for the translation system. However, the RNA world faces its own hard problems as ribozyme-catalyzed RNA replication remains a hypothesis and the selective pressures behind the origin of translation remain mysterious. Eternal inflation offers a viable alternative that is untenable in a finite universe, i.e., that a coupled system of translation and replication emerged by chance, and became the breakthrough stage from which biological evolution, centered around Darwinian selection, took off. A corollary of this hypothesis is that an RNA world, as a diverse population of replicating RNA molecules, might have never existed. In this model, the stage for Darwinian selection is set by anthropic selection of complex systems that rarely but inevitably emerge by chance in the infinite universe

The cosmological model of eternal inflation and the transition from chance to biological evolution in the history of life.

Science.gov (United States)

Koonin, Eugene V

2007-05-31

Recent developments in cosmology radically change the conception of the universe as well as the very notions of "probable" and "possible". The model of eternal inflation implies that all macroscopic histories permitted by laws of physics are repeated an infinite number of times in the infinite multiverse. In contrast to the traditional cosmological models of a single, finite universe, this worldview provides for the origin of an infinite number of complex systems by chance, even as the probability of complexity emerging in any given region of the multiverse is extremely low. This change in perspective has profound implications for the history of any phenomenon, and life on earth cannot be an exception. Origin of life is a chicken and egg problem: for biological evolution that is governed, primarily, by natural selection, to take off, efficient systems for replication and translation are required, but even barebones cores of these systems appear to be products of extensive selection. The currently favored (partial) solution is an RNA world without proteins in which replication is catalyzed by ribozymes and which serves as the cradle for the translation system. However, the RNA world faces its own hard problems as ribozyme-catalyzed RNA replication remains a hypothesis and the selective pressures behind the origin of translation remain mysterious. Eternal inflation offers a viable alternative that is untenable in a finite universe, i.e., that a coupled system of translation and replication emerged by chance, and became the breakthrough stage from which biological evolution, centered around Darwinian selection, took off. A corollary of this hypothesis is that an RNA world, as a diverse population of replicating RNA molecules, might have never existed. In this model, the stage for Darwinian selection is set by anthropic selection of complex systems that rarely but inevitably emerge by chance in the infinite universe (multiverse). The plausibility of different models

Marital status and survival in patients with rectal cancer: A population-based STROBE cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhuyue; Wang, Kang; Zhang, Xuemei; Wen, Jin

2018-05-01

To examine the impact of marital status on overall survival (OS) and rectal cancer-specific survival (RCSS) for aged patients.We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database to identify aged patients (>65 years) with early stage rectal cancer (RC) (T1-T4, N0, M0) in the United States from 2004 to 2010. Propensity score matching was conducted to avoid potential confounding factors with ratio at 1:1. We used Kaplan-Meier to compare OS and RCSS between the married patients and the unmarried, respectively. We used cox proportion hazard regressions to obtain hazard rates for OS, and proportional subdistribution hazard model was performed to calculate hazard rates for RCSS.Totally, 5196 patients were included. The married (2598 [50%]) aged patients had better crude 5-year overall survival rate (64.2% vs 57.3%, P vs 75.9%, P unmarried (2598 (50%)), respectively. In multivariate analyses, married patients had significantly lower overall death than unmarried patients (HR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.71-0.83, P married patients had no cancer-specific survival benefit versus the unmarried aged patients (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.81-1.04, P = .17).Among old population, married patients with early stage RC had better OS than the unmarried, while current evidence showed that marital status might have no protective effect on cancer-specific survival.

Design and analysis methods for fish survival experiments based on release-recapture

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Burnham, Kenneth P

1987-01-01

.... The application of the methods developed here is more general, however, as it includes experiments to estimate survival of fish as they pass over spillways or through bypass systems and several dams...

Survival of HIV-TB co-infected adult patients under ART in Ambo ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

admin

Objectives: To estimate the survival of HIV/AIDS co-infected patients and to identify predictors of survival based on data obtained from Ambo .... done using SPSS, SAS, and STATA software. ..... Control Program Manual, Fourth Edition. Addis.

Providing clinicians and patients with actual prognosis: cancer in the context of competing causes of death.

Science.gov (United States)

Howlader, Nadia; Mariotto, Angela B; Woloshin, Steven; Schwartz, Lisa M

2014-11-01

To isolate progress against cancer from changes in competing causes of death, population cancer registries have traditionally reported cancer prognosis (net measures). But clinicians and cancer patients generally want to understand actual prognosis (crude measures): the chance of surviving, dying from the specific cancer and from competing causes of death in a given time period. To compare cancer and actual prognosis in the United States for four leading cancers-lung, breast, prostate, and colon-by age, comorbidity, and cancer stage and to provide templates to help patients, clinicians, and researchers understand actual prognosis. Using population-based registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, we calculated cancer prognosis (relative survival) and actual prognosis (five-year overall survival and the "crude" probability of dying from cancer and competing causes) for three important prognostic determinants (age, comorbidity [Charlson-score from 2012 SEER-Medicare linkage dataset] and cancer stage at diagnosis). For younger, healthier, and earlier stage cancer patients, cancer and actual prognosis estimates were quite similar. For older and sicker patients, these prognosis estimates differed substantially. For example, the five-year overall survival for an 85-year-old patient with colorectal cancer is 54% (cancer prognosis) versus 22% (actual prognosis)-the difference reflecting the patient's substantial chance of dying from competing causes. The corresponding five-year chances of dying from the patient's cancer are 46% versus 37%. Although age and comorbidity lowered actual prognosis, stage at diagnosis was the most powerful factor: The five-year chance of colon cancer death was 10% for localized stage and 83% for distant stage. Both cancer and actual prognosis measures are important. Cancer registries should routinely report both cancer and actual prognosis to help clinicians and researchers understand the difference between

Survival analysis models and applications

CERN Document Server

Liu, Xian

2012-01-01

Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws.  Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis.Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enablin

Cougar survival and source-sink structure on Greater Yellowstone's Northern Range

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Ruth, T.K.; Haroldson, M.A.; Murphy, K.M.; Buotte, P.C.; Hornocker, M.G.; Quigley, H.B.

2011-01-01

We studied survival and causes of mortality of radiocollared cougars (Puma concolor) on the Greater Yellowstone Northern Range (GYNR) prior to (1987–1994) and after wolf (Canis lupus) reintroduction (1998–2005) and evaluated temporal, spatial, and environmental factors that explain variation in adult, subadult, and kitten survival. Using Program MARK and multimodel inference, we modeled cougar survival based on demographic status, season, and landscape attributes. Our best models for adult and independent subadults indicated that females survived better than males and survival increased with age until cougars reached older ages. Lower elevations and increasing density of roads, particularly in areas open to cougar hunting north of Yellowstone National Park (YNP), increased mortality risks for cougars on the GYNR. Indices of ungulate biomass, cougar and wolf population size, winter severity, rainfall, and individual characteristics such as the presence of dependent young, age class, and use of Park or Wilderness were not important predictors of survival. Kitten survival increased with age, was lower during winter, increased with increasing minimum estimates of elk calf biomass, and increased with increasing density of adult male cougars. Using our best model, we mapped adult cougar survival on the GYNR landscape. Results of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated a good model fit for both female (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.70–0.92, n = 35 locations) and male cougars (AUC = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.74–0.94, n = 49 locations) relative to hunter harvest locations in our study area. Using minimum estimates of survival necessary to sustain the study population, we developed a source-sink surface and we identify several measures that resource management agencies can take to enhance cougar population management based on a source-sink strategy.

Biofilm formation enhances Helicobacter pylori survivability in vegetables.

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Chow Goon; Loke, Mun Fai; Goh, Khean Lee; Vadivelu, Jamuna; Ho, Bow

2017-04-01

To date, the exact route and mode of transmission of Helicobacter pylori remains elusive. The detection of H. pylori in food using molecular approaches has led us to postulate that the gastric pathogen may survive in the extragastric environment for an extended period. In this study, we show that H. pylori prolongs its survival by forming biofilm and micro-colonies on vegetables. The biofilm forming capability of H. pylori is both strain and vegetable dependent. H. pylori strains were classified into high and low biofilm formers based on their highest relative biofilm units (BU). High biofilm formers survived longer on vegetables compared to low biofilm formers. The bacteria survived better on cabbage compared to other vegetables tested. In addition, images captured on scanning electron and confocal laser scanning microscopes revealed that the bacteria were able to form biofilm and reside as micro-colonies on vegetable surfaces, strengthening the notion of possible survival of H. pylori on vegetables for an extended period of time. Taken together, the ability of H. pylori to form biofilm on vegetables (a common food source for human) potentially plays an important role in its survival, serving as a mode of transmission of H. pylori in the extragastric environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fledgling survival increases with development time and adult survival across north and south temperate zones

Science.gov (United States)

Lloyd, Penn; Martin, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Slow life histories are characterized by high adult survival and few offspring, which are thought to allow increased investment per offspring to increase juvenile survival. Consistent with this pattern, south temperate zone birds are commonly longer-lived and have fewer young than north temperate zone species. However, comparative analyses of juvenile survival, including during the first few weeks of the post-fledging period when most juvenile mortality occurs, are largely lacking. We combined our measurements of fledgling survival for eight passerines in South Africa with estimates from published studies of 57 north and south temperate zone songbird species to test three predictions: (1) fledgling survival increases with length of development time in the nest; (2) fledgling survival increases with adult survival and reduced brood size controlled for development time; and (3) south temperate zone species, with their higher adult survival and smaller brood sizes, exhibit higher fledgling survival than north temperate zone species controlled for development time. We found that fledgling survival was higher among south temperate zone species and generally increased with development time and adult survival within and between latitudinal regions. Clutch size did not explain additional variation, but was confounded with adult survival. Given the importance of age-specific mortality to life history evolution, understanding the causes of these geographical patterns of mortality is important.

A model of survival following pre-hospital cardiac arrest based on the Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Register.

Science.gov (United States)

Fridman, Masha; Barnes, Vanessa; Whyman, Andrew; Currell, Alex; Bernard, Stephen; Walker, Tony; Smith, Karen L

2007-11-01

This study describes the epidemiology of sudden cardiac arrest patients in Victoria, Australia, as captured via the Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Register (VACAR). We used the VACAR data to construct a new model of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), which was specified in accordance with observed trends. All cases of cardiac arrest in Victoria that were attended by Victorian ambulance services during the period of 2002-2005. Overall survival to hospital discharge was 3.8% among 18,827 cases of OHCA. Survival was 15.7% among 1726 bystander witnessed, adult cardiac arrests of presumed cardiac aetiology, presenting in ventricular fibrillation or ventricular tachycardia (VF/VT), where resuscitation was attempted. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, bystander CPR, cardiac arrest (CA) location, response time, age and sex were predictors of VF/VT, which, in turn, was a strong predictor of survival. The same factors that affected VF/VT made an additional contribution to survival. However, for bystander CPR, CA location and response time this additional contribution was limited to VF/VT patients only. There was no detectable association between survival and age younger than 60 years or response time over 15min. The new model accounts for relationships among predictors of survival. These relationships indicate that interventions such as reduced response times and bystander CPR act in multiple ways to improve survival.

A Novel Inflammation-Based Stage (I Stage Predicts Overall Survival of Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian-Pei Li

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Recent studies have indicated that inflammation-based prognostic scores, such as the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS, modified GPS (mGPS and C-reactive protein/Albumin (CRP/Alb ratio, platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR, and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR, have been reported to have prognostic value in patients with many types of cancer, including nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC. In this study, we proposed a novel inflammation-based stage, named I stage, for patients with NPC. A retrospective study of 409 newly-diagnosed cases of NPC was conducted. The prognostic factors (GPS, mGPS, CRP/Alb ratios, PLR, and NLR were evaluated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Then, according to the results of the multivariate analyses, we proposed a I stage combination of independent risk factors (CRP/Alb ratio and PLR. The I stage was calculated as follows: patients with high levels of CRP/Alb ratio (>0.03 and PLR (>146.2 were defined as I2; patients with one or no abnormal values were defined as I1 or I0, respectively. The relationships between the I stage and clinicopathological variables and overall survival (OS were evaluated. In addition, the discriminatory ability of the I stage with other inflammation-based prognostic scores was assessed using the AUCs (areas under the curves analyzed by receiver operating characteristics (ROC curves. The p value of <0.05 was considered to be significant. A total of 409 patients with NPC were enrolled in this study. Multivariate analyses revealed that only the CRP/Alb ratio (Hazard ratio (HR = 2.093; 95% Confidence interval (CI: 1.222–3.587; p = 0.007 and PLR (HR: 2.003; 95% CI: 1.177–3.410; p = 0.010 were independent prognostic factors in patients with NPC. The five-year overall survival rates for patients with I0, I1, and I2 were 92.1% ± 2.9%, 83.3% ± 2.6%, and 63.1% ± 4.6%, respectively (p < 0.001. The I stage had a higher area under the curve value (0.670 compared with other systemic inflammation-based

Common germline polymorphisms associated with breast cancer-specific survival

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pirie, Ailith; Guo, Qi; Kraft, Peter

2015-01-01

in the meta-analysis. Fifty-four of these were evaluated in the full set of 37,954 breast cancer cases with 2,900 events and the two additional variants were evaluated in a reduced sample size of 30,000 samples in order to ensure independence from the previously published studies. Five variants reached...... evaluated in the pooled analysis of over 37,000 breast cancer cases for association with breast cancer-specific survival. Previous associations were evaluated using a one-sided test based on the reported direction of effect. RESULTS: Fifty-six variants from 45 previous publications were evaluated......-specific survival using data from a pooled analysis of eight breast cancer survival genome-wide association studies (GWAS) from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. METHODS: A literature review was conducted of all previously published associations between common germline variants and three survival outcomes...

Pricing of premiums for equity-linked life insurance based on joint mortality models

Science.gov (United States)

Riaman; Parmikanti, K.; Irianingsih, I.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

Life insurance equity - linked is a financial product that not only offers protection, but also investment. The calculation of equity-linked life insurance premiums generally uses mortality tables. Because of advances in medical technology and reduced birth rates, it appears that the use of mortality tables is less relevant in the calculation of premiums. To overcome this problem, we use a combination mortality model which in this study is determined based on Indonesian Mortality table 2011 to determine the chances of death and survival. In this research, we use the Combined Mortality Model of the Weibull, Inverse-Weibull, and Gompertz Mortality Model. After determining the Combined Mortality Model, simulators calculate the value of the claim to be given and the premium price numerically. By calculating equity-linked life insurance premiums well, it is expected that no party will be disadvantaged due to the inaccuracy of the calculation result

The impact of geographic unit of analysis on socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival and distant summary stage - a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tervonen, Hanna E; Morrell, Stephen; Aranda, Sanchia; Roder, David; You, Hui; Niyonsenga, Theo; Walton, Richard; Baker, Deborah; Currow, David

2016-12-13

When using area-level disadvantage measures, size of geographic unit can have major effects on recorded socioeconomic cancer disparities. This study examined the extent of changes in recorded socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival and distant stage when the measure of socioeconomic disadvantage was based on smaller Census Collection Districts (CDs) instead of Statistical Local Areas (SLAs). Population-based New South Wales Cancer Registry data were used to identify cases diagnosed with primary invasive cancer in 2000-2008 (n=264,236). Logistic regression and competing risk regression modelling were performed to examine socioeconomic differences in odds of distant stage and hazard of cancer death for all sites combined and separately for breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancers. For all sites collectively, associations between socioeconomic disadvantage and cancer survival and distant stage were stronger when the CD-based socioeconomic disadvantage measure was used compared with the SLA-based measure. The CD-based measure showed a more consistent socioeconomic gradient with a linear upward trend of risk of cancer death/distant stage with increasing socioeconomic disadvantage. Site-specific analyses provided similar findings for the risk of death but less consistent results for the likelihood of distant stage. The use of socioeconomic disadvantage measure based on the smallest available spatial unit should be encouraged in the future. Implications for Public Health: Disadvantage measures based on small spatial units can more accurately identify socioeconomic cancer disparities to inform priority settings in service planning. © 2016 Public Health Association of Australia.

Socioeconomic Status, Not Race, Is Associated With Reduced Survival in Esophagectomy Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Erhunmwunsee, Loretta; Gulack, Brian C; Rushing, Christel; Niedzwiecki, Donna; Berry, Mark F; Hartwig, Matthew G

2017-07-01

Black patients with esophageal cancer have worse survival than white patients. This study examines this racial disparity in conjunction with socioeconomic status (SES) and explores whether race-based outcome differences exist using a national database. The associations between race and SES with overall survival of patients treated with esophagectomy for stages I to III esophageal cancer between 2003 and 2011 in the National Cancer Data Base were investigated using the Kaplan-Meier method and proportional hazards analyses. Median income by zip code and proportion of the zip code residents without a high school diploma were grouped into income and education quartiles, respectively and used as surrogates for SES. The association between race and overall survival stratified by SES is explored. Of 11,599 esophagectomy patients who met study criteria, 3,503 (30.2%) were in the highest income quartile, 2,847 (24.5%) were in the highest education quartile, and 610 patients (5%) were black. Before adjustment for SES, black patients had worse overall survival than white patients (median survival 23.0 versus 34.7 months, log rank p race was not. Prior studies have suggested that survival of esophageal cancer patients after esophagectomy is associated with race. Our study suggests that race is not significantly related to overall survival when adjusted for other prognostic variables. Socioeconomic status, however, remains significantly related to overall survival in our model. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fuel cells. Technology and future chances of electrochemical power generation. Brennstoffzellen. Technik und Zukunft der elektrochemischen Stromerzeugung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDougall, A.

1980-01-01

This is a translation of the original edition which appeared in 1976 in Great Britain under the title 'Fuel Cells'. The emphasis of this book lies on a simplified presentation of the general fundamentals of the direct electrochemical transformation of chemical energy into electrical energy. Application areas of high-, middle- and low-temperature fuel cells as well as economic aspects and future chances are shortly outlined.

A model of the radiation-induced bystander effect based on an analogy with ferromagnets. Application to modelling tissue response in a uniform field

Science.gov (United States)

Vassiliev, O. N.

2014-12-01

We propose a model of the radiation-induced bystander effect based on an analogy with magnetic systems. The main benefit of this approach is that it allowed us to apply powerful methods of statistical mechanics. The model exploits the similarity between how spin-spin interactions result in correlations of spin states in ferromagnets, and how signalling from a damaged cell reduces chances of survival of neighbour cells, resulting in correlated cell states. At the root of the model is a classical Hamiltonian, similar to that of an Ising ferromagnet with long-range interactions. The formalism is developed in the framework of the Mean Field Theory. It is applied to modelling tissue response in a uniform radiation field. In this case the results are remarkably simple and at the same time nontrivial. They include cell survival curves, expressions for the tumour control probability and effects of fractionation. The model extends beyond of what is normally considered as bystander effects. It offers an insight into low-dose hypersensitivity and into mechanisms behind threshold doses for deterministic effects.

Did Educational Expansion Trigger the Development of an Education Society? Chances and Risks of a New Model of Society

Science.gov (United States)

Haunberger, Sigrid

2010-01-01

This article focuses on the question of whether educational expansion leads to a new type of society, the education society. Taking into consideration the combined elements of three models of society (the post-industrial society, the knowledge society and the information society)--the chances and risks of an educational society will be elicited…

Childhood cancer survival in Switzerland (1976-2013): Time-trends and predictors.

Science.gov (United States)

Schindler, Matthias; Belle, Fabiën N; Grotzer, Michael A; von der Weid, Nicolas X; Kuehni, Claudia E

2017-01-01

Population-based studies on childhood cancer survival are key to monitor progress against cancer and to detect potential differences between regions and other subgroups in the population. We investigated time trends and factors associated with childhood cancer survival on a national level in Switzerland, from 1976 to 2013. We extracted data from the population-based Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry of 5,776 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer from 1985 to 2014 in Switzerland. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival, defined the annual reduction in risk of death (ARR), and explored associations of survival with clinical and demographic factors. Overall, 5-year survival improved significantly, from 64% in 1976-1983 to 88% in 2004-2013. ARR over the whole period was 4% for all diagnostic groups, greatest for Hodgkin lymphomas (8%), ependymomas (6%), Burkitt's lymphomas (6%) and germ cell tumours (6%). Children treated in hospitals without specialised paediatric cancer centre for leukaemia (HR 12.9), lymphoma (HR 5.0) and neuroblastoma (HR 3.7) were at higher risk of death. In French-speaking Switzerland, risk of death was lower for lymphoma (HR 0.6), CNS tumours (HR 0.7) and neuroblastoma (HR 0.5). Children with migration background had a higher risk of death from all tumours except bone tumours. Childhood cancer survival significantly improved from 1976 to 2013, but there is room for further improvement. Survival rates varied by type of clinical treatment, language region and nationality. All paediatric cancer patients should be referred to a specialised paediatric cancer centre. Further research is needed to intervene and completely eliminate inequalities in survival. © 2016 UICC.

Survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in relation to sex: a nationwide registry-based study.