Real-time 3D radiation risk assessment supporting simulation of work in nuclear environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Szőke, I; Louka, M N; Bryntesen, T R; Bratteli, J; Edvardsen, S T; RøEitrheim, K K; Bodor, K

2014-06-01

This paper describes the latest developments at the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) in Norway, in the field of real-time 3D (three-dimensional) radiation risk assessment for the support of work simulation in nuclear environments. 3D computer simulation can greatly facilitate efficient work planning, briefing, and training of workers. It can also support communication within and between work teams, and with advisors, regulators, the media and public, at all the stages of a nuclear installation's lifecycle. Furthermore, it is also a beneficial tool for reviewing current work practices in order to identify possible gaps in procedures, as well as to support the updating of international recommendations, dissemination of experience, and education of the current and future generation of workers.IFE has been involved in research and development into the application of 3D computer simulation and virtual reality (VR) technology to support work in radiological environments in the nuclear sector since the mid 1990s. During this process, two significant software tools have been developed, the VRdose system and the Halden Planner, and a number of publications have been produced to contribute to improving the safety culture in the nuclear industry.This paper describes the radiation risk assessment techniques applied in earlier versions of the VRdose system and the Halden Planner, for visualising radiation fields and calculating dose, and presents new developments towards implementing a flexible and up-to-date dosimetric package in these 3D software tools, based on new developments in the field of radiation protection. The latest versions of these 3D tools are capable of more accurate risk estimation, permit more flexibility via a range of user choices, and are applicable to a wider range of irradiation situations than their predecessors.

Computerised Genetic Risk Assessment and Decision Support in Primary Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Coulson

2000-09-01

To address these issues, a new computer application called RAGs (Risk Assessment in Genetics has been designed. The system allows a doctor to create family trees and assess genetic risk of breast cancer. RAGs possesses two features that distinguish it from similar software: (a a user-centred design, which takes into account the requirements of the doctor-patient encounter; (b risk reporting using qualitative evidence for or against an increased risk, which the authors believe to be more useful and accessible than numerical probabilities are. In that the system allows for any genetic risk guideline to be implemented, it can be used with all diseases for which evaluation guidelines exist. The software may be easily modified to cater for the amount of detail required by different specialists.

NRC Support for the Kalinin (VVER) probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bley, D.; Diamond, D.J.; Chu, T.L.; Azarm, A.; Pratt, W.T.; Johnson, D.; Szukiewicz, A.; Drouin, M.; El-Bassioni, A.; Su, T.M.

1998-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Federal Nuclear and Radiation Safety Authority of the Russian Federation have been working together since 1994 to carry out a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a VVER-1000 in the Russian Federation. This was a recognition by both parties that this technology has had a profound effect on the discipline of nuclear reactor safety in the West and that the technology should be transferred to others so that it can be applied to Soviet-designed plants. The NRC provided funds from the Agency for International Development and technical support primarily through Brookhaven National Laboratory and its subcontractors. The latter support was carried out through workshops, by documenting the methodology to be used in a set of guides, and through periodic review of the technical activity. The result of this effort to date includes a set of procedure guides, a draft final report on the Level 1 PRA for internal events (excluding internal fires and floods), and progress reports on the fire, flood, and seismic analysis. It is the authors belief that the type of assistance provided by the NRC has been instrumental in assuring a quality product and transferring important technology for use by regulators and operators of Soviet-designed reactors. After a thorough review, the report will be finalized, lessons learned will be applied in the regulatory and operational regimes in the Russian Federation, and consideration will be given to supporting a containment analysis in order to complete a simplified Level 2 PRA

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA - Updated 2017

Science.gov (United States)

This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling: • QMRA Installation • SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial ...

Air Risk Information Support Center

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shoaf, C.R.; Guth, D.J. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

1990-12-31

The Air Risk Information Support Center (Air RISC) was initiated in early 1988 by the US Environmental Protection Agency`s (EPA) Office of Health and Environmental Assessment (OHEA) and the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) as a technology transfer effort that would focus on providing information to state and local environmental agencies and to EPA Regional Offices in the areas of health, risk, and exposure assessment for toxic air pollutants. Technical information is fostered and disseminated by Air RISCs three primary activities: (1) a {open_quotes}hotline{close_quotes}, (2) quick turn-around technical assistance projects, and (3) general technical guidance projects. 1 ref., 2 figs.

Aggregate exposure pathways in support of risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Over time, risk assessment has shifted from establishing relationships between exposure to a single chemical and a resulting adverse health outcome, to evaluating multiple chemicals and disease outcomes simultaneously. As a result, there is an increasing need to better understand...

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

Nutrition support in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Feinberg, Joshua; Nielsen, Emil Eik; Korang, Steven Kwasi; Halberg Engell, Kirstine; Nielsen, Marie Skøtt; Zhang, Kang; Didriksen, Maria; Lund, Lisbeth; Lindahl, Niklas; Hallum, Sara; Liang, Ning; Xiong, Wenjing; Yang, Xuemei; Brunsgaard, Pernille; Garioud, Alexandre; Safi, Sanam; Lindschou, Jane; Kondrup, Jens; Gluud, Christian; Jakobsen, Janus C

2017-05-19

The prevalence of disease-related malnutrition in Western European hospitals is estimated to be about 30%. There is no consensus whether poor nutritional status causes poorer clinical outcome or if it is merely associated with it. The intention with all forms of nutrition support is to increase uptake of essential nutrients and improve clinical outcome. Previous reviews have shown conflicting results with regard to the effects of nutrition support. To assess the benefits and harms of nutrition support versus no intervention, treatment as usual, or placebo in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk. We searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (Ovid SP), Embase (Ovid SP), LILACS (BIREME), and Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science). We also searched the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (www.who.int/ictrp); ClinicalTrials.gov; Turning Research Into Practice (TRIP); Google Scholar; and BIOSIS, as well as relevant bibliographies of review articles and personal files. All searches are current to February 2016. We include randomised clinical trials, irrespective of publication type, publication date, and language, comparing nutrition support versus control in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk. We exclude trials assessing non-standard nutrition support. We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group. We used trial domains to assess the risks of systematic error (bias). We conducted Trial Sequential Analyses to control for the risks of random errors. We considered a P value of 0.025 or less as statistically significant. We used GRADE methodology. Our primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, serious adverse events, and health-related quality of life. We included 244 randomised clinical trials with 28,619 participants that met our inclusion criteria. We considered all trials to be at high risk of bias. Two

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; Harmelen, Toon van; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-01-01

The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit–risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Subramanian, Vrishali, E-mail: vrishali.subramanian@unive.it; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex [University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics (Italy); Malsch, Ineke [Malsch TechnoValuation (Netherlands); McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin [University of Limerick, Kemmy Business School (Ireland); Harmelen, Toon van; Ligthart, Tom [TNO (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio, E-mail: marcom@unive.it [University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics (Italy)

2016-04-15

The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit–risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

Further assessment of seismic hazard/risk in the Bushveld Complex platinum mines and the implication for regional and local support design.

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Brink, AVZ

2002-03-01

Full Text Available Final Project Report Further assessment of seismic hazard/risk in the Bushveld Complex platinum mines and the implication for regional and local support design. A.v.Z Brink, M.K.C. Roberts, S.M Spottiswoode Research Agency: CSIR: Division of Mining... on the VCR. An industry workshop on local support requirements in areas of higher seismic risk resulted in the specification of support requirements. A maximum design parameter for yielding support in terms of the ground motion velocity is 1 m...

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

Social network, social support, and risk of incident stroke: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagayoshi, Mako; Everson-Rose, Susan A; Iso, Hiroyasu; Mosley, Thomas H; Rose, Kathryn M; Lutsey, Pamela L

2014-10-01

Having a small social network and lack of social support have been associated with incident coronary heart disease; however, epidemiological evidence for incident stroke is limited. We assessed the longitudinal association of a small social network and lack of social support with risk of incident stroke and evaluated whether the association was partly mediated by vital exhaustion and inflammation. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study measured social network and social support in 13 686 men and women (mean, 57 years; 56% women; 24% black; 76% white) without a history of stroke. Social network was assessed by the 10-item Lubben Social Network Scale and social support by a 16-item Interpersonal Support Evaluation List-Short Form. During a median follow-up of 18.6 years, 905 incident strokes occurred. Relative to participants with a large social network, those with a small social network had a higher risk of stroke (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.44 [1.02-2.04]) after adjustment for demographics, socioeconomic variables, marital status, behavioral risk factors, and major stroke risk factors. Vital exhaustion, but not inflammation, partly mediated the association between a small social network and incident stroke. Social support was unrelated to incident stroke. In this sample of US community-dwelling men and women, having a small social network was associated with excess risk of incident stroke. As with other cardiovascular conditions, having a small social network may be associated with a modestly increased risk of incident stroke. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

The American Petroleum Institute's Decision Support System for performing exposure and risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spence, L.R.

1994-01-01

The author has developed the American Petroleum Institute's (API) Exposure and Risk Assessment Decision Support System (DSS) to assist environmental professionals in estimating human exposure and risk from sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons. The DSS is a valuable, user-friendly tool that can be used to (1) estimate site-specific risks, (2) identify the need for site remediation, (3) develop and negotiate site-specific cleanup levels with regulatory agencies, and (4) efficiently and effectively evaluate the effect of parameter uncertainty and variability on estimated risk. API DSS Version 1.0 consists of four modules. Specifically, the Development of Risk Scenario module allows the user to develop a conceptual model for estimating the risk. The Fate and Transport module includes a number of contaminant fate and transport models to estimate receptor point concentrations using site-specific hydrogeological and meteorological data entered by the user. The Chemical Intake and Risk Calculation module uses estimated or user-entered receptor point concentrations to estimate chemical intake by a human receptor for several different exposure routes. Finally, the Risk Presentation module allows the user to view the results of the analysis in tabular and graphical formats. The DSS includes chemical databases for 25 hydrocarbons containing transport and toxicity information. These databases may be expanded to include many additional (non-hydrocarbon) chemicals. The computational modules of the DSS can be implemented in either a deterministic or a Monte Carlo simulation mode. The latter is used to quantify the uncertainty in the exposure and risk results due to uncertainty in the input parameters

Protective effects of self-esteem and family support on suicide risk behaviors among at-risk adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharaf, Amira Y; Thompson, Elaine A; Walsh, Elaine

2009-08-01

If and how family support and self-esteem might interact to protect against adolescent suicide risk is not well understood. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to examine the moderating effect of family support on the relationship between self-esteem and suicide risk behaviors among potential high school dropouts (N = 849), using questionnaires and in-depth assessment interviews. Family support moderated the impact of self-esteem on suicide risk; the ameliorating effect of self-esteem was stronger among adolescents with low versus high family support. Self-esteem influences adolescent suicide risk behaviors for youth with low as well as high family support. Interventions designed to strengthen both self-esteem and support resources are appropriate.

The Volcanic Hazards Assessment Support System for the Online Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation of Quaternary Volcanoes in the World

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shinji Takarada

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Volcanic hazards assessment tools are essential for risk mitigation of volcanic activities. A number of offline volcanic hazard assessment tools have been provided, but in most cases, they require relatively complex installation procedure and usage. This situation causes limited usage of volcanic hazard assessment tools among volcanologists and volcanic hazards communities. In addition, volcanic eruption chronology and detailed database of each volcano in the world are essential key information for volcanic hazard assessment, but most of them are isolated and not connected to and with each other. The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Support System aims to implement a user-friendly, WebGIS-based, open-access online system for potential hazards assessment and risk-mitigation of Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The users can get up-to-date information such as eruption chronology and geophysical monitoring data of a specific volcano using the direct link system to major volcano databases on the system. Currently, the system provides 3 simple, powerful and notable deterministic modeling simulation codes of volcanic processes, such as Energy Cone, Titan2D and Tephra2. The system provides deterministic tools because probabilistic assessment tools are normally much more computationally demanding. By using the volcano hazard assessment system, the area that would be affected by volcanic eruptions in any location near the volcano can be estimated using numerical simulations. The system is being implemented using the ASTER Global DEM covering 2790 Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The system can be used to evaluate volcanic hazards and move this toward risk-potential by overlaying the estimated distribution of volcanic gravity flows or tephra falls on major roads, houses and evacuation areas using the GIS-enabled systems. The system is developed for all users in the world who need volcanic hazards assessment tools.

Ergonomics Risk Assessment among support staff in Universiti Malaysia Pahang

Science.gov (United States)

Jusoh, Faisal; Nafis Osman Zahid, Muhammed

2018-03-01

Awareness of ergonomic risk assessment among workers are getting intense in many industries nowadays. It is essential since most of the workers spend 7 to 8 hours of their time in the workplaces. Previous study shown that spending too much time with static posture in sitting at workplace leads to the problem of Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs). The implications are not only harmful to human body but also effect the productivity. Currently, there are no scientific study conducted to assess the conditions of workers in Universiti Malaysia Pahang (UMP). Therefore, the problem of MSDs could not be justified clearly and the top management did not acknowledge this issue. This study aims to present current scenario of ergonomic risk level at UMP by using structured model. It focuses on operational staff from faculties and Human Resources Department (HRD). Initially, three types of assessments are executed based on general working condition, Cornell Muscokeletal Discomfort Questionnaire (CMDQ) and Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA). Based on the findings, 90% of the respondents felt discomfort at workplace but prefer to rectify the issues by themselves. Almost 50% of them evaluated themselves in level 4-5 of discomfort level. The CMDQ result shown the discomfort area at faculties and HRD. The workplace at faculties and HRD had been assessed through ROSA and the overall result shown the risk level is medium level respectively. Therefore, further investigation is requires and improvement of workplace need to be proposed to establish good working condition.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Derivation of endogenous equivalent values to support risk assessment and risk management decisions for an endogenous carcinogen: Ethylene oxide.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirman, C R; Hays, S M

2017-12-01

An approach is presented for ethylene oxide (EO) to derive endogenous equivalent (EE) values, which are endogenous levels normally found within the body expressed in terms of exogenous exposures. EE values can be used to support risk assessment and risk management decisions for chemicals such as EO that have both endogenous and exogenous exposure pathways. EE values were derived using a meta-analysis of data from the published literature characterizing the distribution for an EO biomarker of exposure, hemoglobin N-(2-hydroxyethyl)-valine (HEV), in unexposed populations. These levels are compared to the those reported in exposed populations (smokers, workers). Correlation between the biomarker of exposure and external exposures of EO were applied to this distribution to determine corresponding EE values, which range from 0.13 to 6.9 ppb for EO in air. These values are orders of magnitude higher than risk-based concentration values derived for EO using default methods, and are provided as a pragmatic, data-driven alternative approach to managing the potential risks from exogenous exposures to EO. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Youth at risk of physical inactivity may benefit more from activity-related support than youth not at risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schmalz Dorothy L

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Background This study examines whether associations between activity-related support and adolescents' physical activity differ for adolescents at high versus low risk of physical inactivity. Methods: Participants included 202 middle-school-aged girls (N = 92 and boys (N = 110. Physical activity was assessed using three self-report questionnaires. Activity-related support from mothers, fathers, siblings, and peers was assessed using the Activity Support Scale. Perceived sport competence was assessed using the Physical Activity Self Description Questionnaire. Participants' height and weight were measured and used to calculate their age- and sex-adjusted Body Mass Index percentile. Participants were classified as being at high risk for physical inactivity if they fulfilled two of the following three criteria: (1 overweight; (2 female; or (3 having low perceived sport competence. Results: Activity-related support from all sources was associated with higher levels of physical activity among adolescents. A stronger association between activity support and physical activity was found for adolescents at high risk for physical inactivity in comparison to adolescents at low risk. Conclusions: Findings from this study suggest that the activity-related support from family and friends may be an effective tool in promoting physical activity among youth at risk of physical inactivity.

Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang

2008-01-01

functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias...... choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects....

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Governance in support of integrated flood risk management? The case of Romania

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vinke-de Kruijf, Joanne; Kuks, Stefanus M.M.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

2015-01-01

Building on an existing model of governance, this paper aims to assess the supportiveness of Romania׳s structural flood risk governance context towards integrated flood risk management. We assert that a governance structure supports the development and implementation of integrated flood risk

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact

Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

2001-01-01

the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

Caries risk assessment in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, S

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

Science.gov (United States)

Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

2016-12-01

Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the

Investigating patients' and general practitioners' views of computerised decision support software for the assessment and management of cardiovascular risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne Wilson

2007-01-01

Conclusion Computer decision support programs are becoming more prevalent, but little is known about their usability and acceptability to both health professionals and consumers. The complexities of cardiovascular risk assessment and management can be adequately managed with such programs. As a contemporary report this study contributes to the growing knowledge required for developers of medical software and decision support systems to better understand the needs of endusers.

Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

2004-04-15

Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

A comparison of risk assessments on Campylobacter in broiler meat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nauta, Maarten; Hill, Andy; Rosenquist, Hanne

2009-01-01

In recent years. several quantitative risk assessments for Campylobacter in broiler meat have been developed to support risk managers in controlling this pathogen. The models encompass some or all of the consecutive stages in the broiler meat production chain: primary production, industrial...... of slaughter, the prevalence is most likely to be either very low (95%). In evaluating control strategies, all models find a negligible effect of logistic slaughter, the separate processing of positive and negative flocks. Also, all risk assessments conclude that the most effective intervention measures aim...... processing, consumer food preparation,and the close-response relationship. The modelling approaches vary between the models, and this has supported the progress of risk assessment as a research discipline. The risk assessments are not only used to assess the human incidence of campylobacteriosis due...

[Informatics support for risk assessment and identification of preventive measures in small and micro-enterprises: occupational hazard datasheets].

Science.gov (United States)

de Merich, D; Forte, Giulia

2011-01-01

particular small and micro-enterprises with risk assessment, providing a flexible and standardized tool in the form of a datasheet, that can be updated with more detailed information on the various work contexts in Italy. The model proposed by ISPESL selected the ILO's "Hazard Datasheet on Occupation" as an initial information tool to steer efforts to assess and manage hazards in small and micro-enterprises. In addition to being an internationally validated tool, the occupation datasheet has a very simple structure that is very effective in communicating and updating information in relation to the local context. According to the logic based on the providing support to enterprises by means of a collaborative network among institutions, local supervisory services and social partners, standardised hazard assessment procedures should be, irrespective of any legal obligations, the preferred tools of an "updatable information system" capable of providing support for the need to improve the process of assessing and managing hazards in enterprises.

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

Science.gov (United States)

We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

Supporting nanomaterial risk assessment by case studies of nano-titanium dioxide using comprehensive environmental assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Here we describe a comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) approach for two case studies of nano-titanium dioxide (nano-TiO2) in real world applications: water treatment and sunscreen. CEA combines a product life cycle framework with the risk assessment paradigm.

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.

2002-10-01

. Supporting calculations to explore these issues quantitatively could provide additional support for conducting such a review. Regulatory guidance on these issues would be a further means of supporting the review process. In addition to a review of approaches to the calculation of risk, the report also examines alternative measures that have been proposed for assessing long-term performance of a disposal system. Such alternative performance measures include environmental concentrations, radionuclide fluxes and radiotoxicity. Such measures have been adopted in some regulatory regimes, but their use is not sufficiently widespread to draw definitive conclusions as to their usefulness. Alternative performance measures may be of value in developing an understanding of system performance, but stakeholders may find their use as regulatory criteria less easy to understand than measures of dose or risk. Additional work on developing a methodology for formulating and quantifying alternative performance measures is therefore suggested, together with consultation on the benefits and disadvantages associated with the adoption of such measures

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

2002-10-01

. Supporting calculations to explore these issues quantitatively could provide additional support for conducting such a review. Regulatory guidance on these issues would be a further means of supporting the review process. In addition to a review of approaches to the calculation of risk, the report also examines alternative measures that have been proposed for assessing long-term performance of a disposal system. Such alternative performance measures include environmental concentrations, radionuclide fluxes and radiotoxicity. Such measures have been adopted in some regulatory regimes, but their use is not sufficiently widespread to draw definitive conclusions as to their usefulness. Alternative performance measures may be of value in developing an understanding of system performance, but stakeholders may find their use as regulatory criteria less easy to understand than measures of dose or risk. Additional work on developing a methodology for formulating and quantifying alternative performance measures is therefore suggested, together with consultation on the benefits and disadvantages associated with the adoption of such measures.

Baseline Risk Assessment Supporting Closure at Waste Management Area C at the Hanford Site Washington

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singleton, Kristin M.

2015-01-01

contamination impacts on groundwater. Waste Management Area C is the first of the Hanford tank farms to begin the closure planning process. The current baseline risk assessment will provide valuable information for making corrective actions and closure decisions for WMA C, and will also support the planning for future tank farm soil investigation and baseline risk assessments.

Baseline Risk Assessment Supporting Closure at Waste Management Area C at the Hanford Site Washington

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singleton, Kristin M. [Washington River Protection Solutions LLC, Richland, WA (United States)

2015-01-07

contamination impacts on groundwater. Waste Management Area C is the first of the Hanford tank farms to begin the closure planning process. The current baseline risk assessment will provide valuable information for making corrective actions and closure decisions for WMA C, and will also support the planning for future tank farm soil investigation and baseline risk assessments.

Assessing the Effects of Information About Global Population Growth on Risk Perceptions and Support for Mitigation and Prevention Strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Ian G J

2018-05-16

The human population is forecast to increase by 3-4 billion people during this century and many scientists have expressed concerns that this could increase the likelihood of certain adverse events (e.g., climate change and resource shortages). Recent research shows that these concerns are mirrored in public risk perceptions and that these perceptions correlate with a willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support actions to limit growth). However, little research has assessed the factors that influence risk perceptions of global population growth (GPG). To contribute to this important goal, this article presents three studies that examined how risk perceptions of GPG might be influenced by textual-visual representations (like those in media and Internet articles) of the potential effects of GPG. Study 1 found that a textual narrative that highlighted the potential negative (cf. positive) consequences of GPG led to higher perceived risk and greater willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors, but not to support preventative actions. Notably, the influence of the narratives on perceived risk was largely moderated by the participant's prior knowledge and perceptions of GPG. Contrary to expectations, studies 2 and 3 revealed, respectively, that photographs depicting GPG-related imagery and graphs depicting GPG rates had no significant effect on the perceived risk of GPG or the willingness to embrace mitigation or preventative actions. However, study 3 found that individuals with higher "graph literacy" perceived GPG as a higher risk and were more willing to adopt mitigation behaviors and support preventative actions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1998-01-01

This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje

2011-01-01

Risk assessments are often criticised for defending activities that could harm the environment and human health. The risk assessments produce numbers which are used to prove that the risk associated with the activity is acceptable. In this way, risk assessments seem to be a tool generally serving business. Government agencies have based their regulations on the use of risk assessment and the prevailing practise is supported by the regulations. In this paper, we look more closely into this critique. Are risk assessments being misused or are risk assessments simply not a suitable tool for guiding decision-making in the face of risks and uncertainties? Is the use of risk assessments not servicing public interests? We argue that risk assessments may provide useful decision support but the quality of the risk assessments and the associated risk assessment processes need to be improved. In this paper, three main improvement areas (success factors) are identified and discussed: (1) the scientific basis of the risk assessments needs to be strengthened, (2) the risk assessments need to provide a much broader risk picture than what is typically the case today. Separate uncertainty analyses should be carried out, extending the traditional probabilistic-based analyses and (3) the cautionary and precautionary principles need to be seen as rational risk management approaches, and their application would, to a large extent, be based on risk and uncertainty assessments.

Assessment of health risks caused by air pollutants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsson, Robert.

1991-02-01

This report is a support document to an other report from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 'Risk assessment - a research programme aimed at health risks from air pollution in the general environment', report 3890, 1991 and is a survey of the scientific 'state of the art' in the different parts of risk assessment. Furthermore certain proposals are made concerning the scientific content of the future research in this area. (au)

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

2017-01-01

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

Assessments of risk indices and decision-making support within risk based land management and sustainable rehabilitation of radioactive contaminated territories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yatsalo, B.; Didenko, V.; Golikov, V.

2002-01-01

Description of the applied Geoinformation Decision-Support System PRANA for risk based land management and rehabilitation of territories of Bryansk region (Russia), subjected to radioactive contamination as a result of the Chernobyl accident, is presented. The main blocks of PRANA DSS, including electronic maps, databases and models are described. Implementation of vector land use map with corresponding integration of different models allows integrating both local and regional level of analysis and practical implementation (from each field and settlement up to farm and district and regional levels). Some examples of model assessments (map of countermeasures and doses) are presented

Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-05-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Risk Assessments by Female Victims of Intimate Partner Violence: Predictors of Risk Perceptions and Comparison to an Actuarial Measure

Science.gov (United States)

Connor-Smith, Jennifer K.; Henning, Kris; Moore, Stephanie; Holdford, Robert

2011-01-01

Recent studies support the validity of both structured risk assessment tools and victim perceptions as predictors of risk for repeat intimate partner violence (IPV). Combining structured risk assessments and victim risk assessments leads to better predictions of repeat violence than either alone, suggesting that the two forms of assessment provide…

Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Fielder

2018-06-01

Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

Risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1990-09-01

The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

Application of epigenetic data in human health risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Cote, Ila L; McCullough, Shaun D; Hines, Ronald N; Vandenberg, John J

2017-11-06

Despite the many recent advances in the field of epigenetics, application of this knowledge in environmental health risk assessment has been limited. In this paper, we identify opportunities for application of epigenetic data to support health risk assessment. We consider current applications and present a vision for the future.

Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

Preface This publication is a first version of a manual identifying the data needs for ecological risk assessment of genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). It is the intention of the authors to stimulate further discussion of what data are needed in order to conduct a proper ecological risk...... of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... in the amendment to the directive. This report suggests a structured way to identify the type of data needed to perform a sound ecological risk assessment for genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). The identified data types are intended to support the evaluation of the following risks: risk of invasion...

Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khorsandi, Jahon; Aven, Terje

2017-01-01

Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation. - Highlights: • An approach for assessing the risk of deviations in QRA assumptions is presented. • Critical deviations and uncertainties related to their occurrence are addressed. • The analysis promotes critical thinking about the foundation and results of QRAs. • The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.

Comprehensive risk assessment for rail transportation of dangerous goods: a validated platform for decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gheorghe, Adrian V.; Birchmeier, Juerg; Vamanu, Dan; Papazoglou, Ioannis; Kroeger, Wolfgang

2005-01-01

Currently, the most advanced and well documented risk assessments for the transportation of dangerous goods by railway take into account:(i)statistics-based loss of containment frequencies, (ii) specification of potential consequences for a given release situations using event tree methodology as an organisational tool and (iii) consequence calculation models to determine a risk figure known as CCDF (Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function). Such procedures for the risk assessment (including for example decision-making on preventive measures) may offer only a limited insight into the causes and sequences leading to an accident and do not allow for any kind of predictive analysis. The present work introduces an enhanced solution, and a related software platform, which attempts to integrate loss of containment causes and consequences with system's infrastructure and its environment. The solution features:(i)the use of a detailed Master Logical Diagram, including fault/event tree analysis to determine a loss of containment frequency based on different initiating events, scenarios and specific basic data, (ii) the characterization of a resulting source term following a release situation, and (iii) the calculation of various potential impacts on the neighbouring site. Results are wrapped into a CCDF format for each selected traffic segment. The risk-related results are integrated on a software platform, structured as a decision support system using intelligent maps and a variety of GIS (Geographical Information System) data processing procedures. The introduction of the hot spot approach, allows us to focus on the most risk-relevant areas and to use information on various railway infrastructure elements (e.g. points, tunnels), are the basis of the new models employed. The software is applicable to any railway transportation system, comprising its technical infrastructure, rolling stock, human actions, regulation and management procedures. It provides the

Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

2009-01-01

The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

The moderating role of social support on the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleiman, Evan M; Riskind, John H; Schaefer, Karen E; Weingarden, Hilary

2012-01-01

Suicide is the second leading cause of death among college students. There has been considerable research into risk factors for suicide, such as impulsivity, but considerably less research on protective factors. The present study examines the role that social support plays in the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk. Participants were 169 undergraduates who completed self-report measures of impulsivity and social support. Suicide risk was assessed using an interview measure. Social support moderates the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk, such that those who are highly impulsive are less likely to be at risk for suicide if they also have high levels of social support. Social support can be a useful buffer to suicide risk for at-risk individuals who are highly impulsive.

A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mutekanga, F.P.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.

2010-01-01

This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

2013-10-01

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Humans vs Hardware: The Unique World of NASA Human System Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.; Overton, Eric

2016-01-01

Understanding spaceflight risks to crew health and performance is a crucial aspect of preparing for exploration missions in the future. The research activities of the Human Research Program (HRP) provide substantial evidence to support most risk reduction work. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), acting on behalf of the Office of Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO), assesses these risks and assigns likelihood and consequence ratings to track progress. Unfortunately, many traditional approaches in risk assessment such as those used in the engineering aspects of spaceflight are difficult to apply to human system risks. This presentation discusses the unique aspects of risk assessment from the human system risk perspective and how these limitations are accommodated and addressed in order to ensure that reasonable inputs are provided to support the OCHMO's overall risk posture for manned exploration missions.

Risk assessment for transportation of radioactive materials and nuclear explosives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.; Wilson, R.K.; Hartman, W.F.

1991-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories has the lead technical role for probabilistic risk assessments of transportation of nuclear weapons, components, and special nuclear material in support of the US Department of Energy. The emphasis of the risk assessments is on evaluating the probability of inadvertent disposal of radioactive material and the consequences of such a release. This paper will provide an overview of the methodology being developed for the risk assessment and will discuss the interpretation and use of the results. The advantages and disadvantages of using risk assessment as an alternative to performance-based criteria for packaging will be described. 2 refs., 1 fig

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Need for realistic risk assessments at DOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.

1993-01-01

Widespread environmental contamination has been documented at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. Human health risk assessments are increasingly being used to support decisions concerning remediation at these sites. Current methods for assessing risk at DOE facilities are generally excessively conservative or simplistic. Generic models, conservative parameter default values, and assumptions are often used, and unrealistic exposure and land-use scenarios are embedded in the analyses. These approaches are appropriate only as first-level screening analyses and identify contaminants or pathways that are not important in terms of risk to human health

An expert panel approach to support risk-informed decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

2000-01-01

The report describes the expert panel methodology developed for supporting risk-informed decision making. The aim of an expert panel is to achieve a balanced utilisation of information and expertise from several disciplines in decision-making including probabilistic safety assessment as one decision criterion. We also summarise the application of the methodology in the STUK's RI-ISI (Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection) pilot study, where the expert panel approach was used to combine the deterministic information on degradation mechanisms and probabilistic information on pipe break consequences. The expert panel served both as a critical review of the preliminary results and as a decision support for the final definition of risk categories of piping. (orig.)

'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score': testing the clinical validity of a new risk assessment instrument.

Science.gov (United States)

Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise; Alkier Gildberg, Frederik

2017-08-01

Unstructured risk assessment, as well as confounders (underlying reasons for the patient's risk behaviour and alliance), risk behaviour, and parameters of alliance, have been identified as factors that prolong the duration of mechanical restraint among forensic mental health inpatients. To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical restraint. The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. The three sub-scales (Confounders, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items, and the instrument can be used to support the clinical decision-making regarding the possibility of releasing the patient from mechanical restraint. The present three studies have clinically validated a short MR-CRAS scale that is currently being psychometrically tested in a larger study.

Do pressure ulcer risk assessment scales improve clinical practice?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Kottner

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Jan Kottner1, Katrin Balzer21Department of Nursing Science, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; 2Nursing Research Group, Institute for Social Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, GermanyAbstract: Standardized assessment instruments are deemed important for estimating pressure ulcer risk. Today, more than 40 so-called pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are available but still there is an ongoing debate about their usefulness. From a measurement point of view pressure ulcer (PU risk assessment scales have serious limitations. Empirical evidence supporting the validity of PU risk assessment scale scores is weak and obtained scores contain varying amounts of measurement error. The concept of pressure ulcer risk is strongly related to the general health status and severity of illness. A clinical impact due do the application of these scales could also not be demonstrated. It is questionable whether completion of standardized pressure ulcer risk scales in clinical practice is really needed.Keywords: Braden pressure ulcer, prevention, risk assessment, nursing assessment, predictive value, clinical effectiveness, review

Hanford Waste Vitrification Project Building limited scope risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, D.J.; Lindberg, S.E.; Reardon, M.F.; Wilson, G.P.

1992-10-01

A limited scope risk assessment was performed on the preliminary design of a high-level waste interim storage facility. The Canister Storage Building (CSB) facility will be built to support remediation at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State. The CSB will be part of the support facilities for a high level Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP). The limited scope risk assessment is based on a preliminary design which uses forced air circulation systems to move air through the building vault. The current building design calls for natural circulation to move air through the building vault

U.S. Department of energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.; Scofield, P.A.

1995-06-01

This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments

U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Center for Risk Management; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Scofield, P.A. [Office of Environmental Compliance and Documentation (United States)

1995-06-01

This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pertry, I.; Nothegger, C.; Sweet, J.; Kuiper, H.A.; Davies, H.; Iserentant, D.; Hull, R.; Mezzetti, B.; Messens, K.; Loose, De M.; Oliveira, de D.; Burssens, S.; Gheysen, G.; Tzotzos, G.

2014-01-01

Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems

Risk-based analyses in support of California hazardous site remediation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringland, J.T.

1995-08-01

The California Environmental Enterprise (CEE) is a joint program of the Department of Energy (DOE), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Its goal is to make DOE laboratory expertise accessible to hazardous site cleanups in the state This support might involve working directly with parties responsible for individual cleanups or it might involve working with the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop tools that would be applicable across a broad range of sites. As part of its initial year's activities, the CEE supported a review to examine where laboratory risk and risk-based systems analysis capabilities might be most effectively applied. To this end, this study draws the following observations. The labs have a clear role in analyses supporting the demonstration and transfer of laboratory characterization or remediation technologies. The labs may have opportunities in developing broadly applicable analysis tools and computer codes for problems such as site characterization or efficient management of resources. Analysis at individual sites, separate from supporting lab technologies or prototyping general tools, may be appropriate only in limited circumstances. In any of these roles, the labs' capabilities extend beyond health risk assessment to the broader areas of risk management and risk-based systems analysis

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

2017-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

Probabilistic safety assessment support for the maintenance rule at Duke Power Company

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brewer, H. Duncan; Canady, Ken S.

1999-01-01

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) published the Maintenance Rule on July 10, 1991 with an implementation date of July 10, 1996 . Maintenance rule implementation at the Duke Power Company has used probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) insights to help focus the monitoring of structures, systems and components (SSC) performance and to ensure that maintenance is effectively performed. This paper describes how the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) group at the Duke Power Company provides support for the maintenance rule by performing the following tasks: (1) providing a member of the expert panel; (2) determining the risk-significant SSCs; (3) establishing SSC performance criteria for availability and reliability; (4) evaluating past performance and its impact on core damage risk as part of the periodic assessment; (5) providing input to the PRA matrix; (6) providing risk analyses of combinations of SSCs out of service; (7) providing support for the SENTINEL program; and (8) providing support for PSA training. These tasks are not simply tied to the initial implementation of the rule. The maintenance rule must be kept consistent with the current design and operation of the plant. This will require that the PRA models and the many PSA calculations performed to support the maintenance rule are kept up-to-date. Therefore, support of the maintenance rule will be one of the primary roles of the PSA group for the remainder of the life of the plant

Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

OpenAIRE

Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Kelly, S.

2013-01-01

A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for th...

On the use of conservatism in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje

2016-01-01

It is common to use conservatism in risk assessments, replacing uncertain quantities with values that lead to a higher level of risk. It is argued that the approach represents a practical method for dealing with uncertainties and lack of knowledge in risk assessment. If the computed probabilities meet the pre-defined criteria with the conservative quantities, there is strong support for the “real risk” to meet these criteria. In this paper we look more closely into this practice, the main aims being to clarify what it actually means and what the implications are, as well as providing some recommendations. The paper concludes that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments – “best judgements” should be the ruling thinking, to allow for meaningful comparisons of options. By incorporating sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements for the background knowledge on which the assigned probabilities are based, the robustness of the conclusions can be more adequately assessed. - Highlights: • The paper clarifies the meaning of conservatism in risk assessments. • It is shown that a conservative policy has severe shortcomings. • It is concluded that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments. • “Best judgements” should be the ruling thinking. • Sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements are required.

Current issues and perspectives in food safety and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenbrand, G

2015-12-01

In this review, current issues and opportunities in food safety assessment are discussed. Food safety is considered an essential element inherent in global food security. Hazard characterization is pivotal within the continuum of risk assessment, but it may be conceived only within a very limited frame as a true alternative to risk assessment. Elucidation of the mode of action underlying a given hazard is vital to create a plausible basis for human toxicology evaluation. Risk assessment, to convey meaningful risk communication, must be based on appropriate and reliable consideration of both exposure and mode of action. New perspectives, provided by monitoring human exogenous and endogenous exposure biomarkers, are considered of great promise to support classical risk extrapolation from animal toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

2012-05-01

A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rojo, F J Romero; Roy, R; Kelly, S

2012-01-01

A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

2015-01-01

.72-1.17). CONCLUSION: The women who are referred for occupational risk assessment at two large occupational university departments are not at an increased risk of preterm birth or of delivering low birth weight children. This may reflect that reproductive hazards in Danish workplaces are limited and....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study......INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Enact legislation supporting residential property assessed clean energy financing (PACE)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saha, Devashree

2012-11-15

Congress should enact legislation that supports residential property assessed clean energy (PACE) programs in the nation’s states and metropolitan areas. Such legislation should require the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase residential mortgages with PACE assessments while at the same time providing responsible underwriting standards and a set of benchmarks for residential PACE assessments in order to minimize financial risks to mortgage holders. Congressional support of residential PACE financing will improve energy efficiency, encourage job creation, and foster economic growth in the nation’s state and metropolitan areas.

Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program scientific peer review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentz, E.J. Jr.; Bentz, C.B.; O'Hora, T.D.; Chen, S.Y.

1997-01-01

The 1,350 square-mile Nevada Test Site and additional sites in Nevada served as the continental sites for US nuclear weapons testing from 1951 to 1992. The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is a currently on-going effort of the Harry Reid Center for Environmental Studies at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) and the firm of E. J. Bentz and Associates, Inc., in cooperation with the US Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management Program. Argonne National Laboratory is one of several public and private organizations supporting personnel appointed by the NRAMP to the NRAMP Scientific Peer Review Panel. The NRAMP is part of a national effort by the DOE to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication, and public outreach relevant to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous materials management and site remediation activities. This paper describes the development, conduct, and current results of the scientific peer review process which supports the goals of the NRAMP

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

The challenges of risk society for impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen

2017-01-01

, the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions and the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate. Through a case example of integration of climate change in strategic environmental assessment, the paper uses empirical evidence from a survey and a series of interviews to carry out......This paper takes its point of departure in Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. The paper puts forward a hypothe- sis, on which theoretical challenges the characteristics of risk society pose to impact assessment as a decision support tool; namely...... a preliminary discussion of how the theoretical challenges are reflected in practice. The case study results show that the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions in a risk society is reflected in the current state of practice, while the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate...

New developments in quantitative risk assessment of campylobacteriosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Havelaar, Arie; Nauta, Maarten

meat to ready-to-eat foods is the main pathway of consumer exposure. Undercooking appears to be of minor importance. However, this conclusion may need to be reconsidered in the light of increasing consumption of minced meat preparations. Five QMRA models have been compared in detail, and detailed......Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is now broadly accepted as an important decision support tool in food safety risk management. It has been used to support decision making at the global level (Codex Alimentarius, FAO and WHO), at the European level (European Food Safety Authority...

Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

Science.gov (United States)

The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

Science.gov (United States)

2003-06-01

This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

A fuzzy logic decision support system for assessing clinical nutritional risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Mohammad Hadianfard

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Studies have indicated a global high prevalence of hospital malnutrition on admission and during hospitalization. Clinical Nutritional Risk Screen (CNRS is a way to identify malnutrition and manage nutritional interventions. Several traditional and non-computer based tools have been suggested for screening nutritional risk levels. The present study was an attempt to employ a computer based fuzzy model decision support system as a nutrition-screening tool for inpatients. Method: This is an applied modeling study. The system architecture was designed based on the fuzzy logic model including input data, inference engine, and output. A clinical nutritionist entered nineteen input variables using a windows-based graphical user interface. The inference engine was involved with knowledge obtained from literature and the construction of ‘IF-THEN’ rules. The output of the system was stratification of patients into four risk levels from ‘No’ to ‘High’ where a number was also allocated to them as a nutritional risk grade. All patients (121 people admitted during implementing the system participated in testing the model. The classification tests were used to measure the CNRS fuzzy model performance. IBM SPSS version 21 was utilized as a tool for data analysis with α = 0.05 as a significance level. Results: Results showed that sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and precision of the fuzzy model performance were 91.67% (±4.92, 76% (±7.6, 88.43% (±5.7, and 93.62% (±4.32, respectively. Instant performance on admission and very low probability of mistake in predicting malnutrition risk level may justify using the model in hospitals. Conclusion: To conclude, the fuzzy model-screening tool is based on multiple nutritional risk factors, having the capability of classifying inpatients into several nutritional risk levels and identifying the level of required nutritional intervention.

Weed risk assessments are an effective component of invasion risk management

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gordon, D. R.; Flory, S. L.; Lieurance, D.; Hulme, P. E.; Buddenhagen, C.; Caton, B.; Champion, P. D.; Culley, T. M.; Daehler, C. C.; Essl, F.; Hill, J. E.; Keller, R. P.; Kohl, L.; Koop, A. L.; Kumschick, S.; Lodge, D. M.; Mack, R. N.; Meyerson, L. A.; Pallipparambil, G. R.; Panetta, F. D.; Porter, R.; Pyšek, Petr; Quinn, L. D.; Richardson, D. M.; Simberloff, D.; Vila, M.

2016-01-01

Roč. 9, č. 1 (2016), s. 81-83 ISSN 1939-7291 Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : weed risk assessment * interspecific variation * invasions Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.952, year: 2016

Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Horie, Seichi

2010-09-01

Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

Occupational Health Policies on Risk Assessment in Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seichi Horie

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law of Japan requires abnormalities identifi ed in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording “employers shall endeavor.” Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifi es criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer signifi cant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, fi nancial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

2015-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (METHODS: In a cohort study, 1,202 deliveries among....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study.......72-1.17). CONCLUSION: The women who are referred for occupational risk assessment at two large occupational university departments are not at an increased risk of preterm birth or of delivering low birth weight children. This may reflect that reproductive hazards in Danish workplaces are limited and...

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

Science.gov (United States)

Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

Deciding which chemical mixtures risk assessment methods work best for what mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teuschler, Linda K.

2007-01-01

The most commonly used chemical mixtures risk assessment methods involve simple notions of additivity and toxicological similarity. Newer methods are emerging in response to the complexities of chemical mixture exposures and effects. Factors based on both science and policy drive decisions regarding whether to conduct a chemical mixtures risk assessment and, if so, which methods to employ. Scientific considerations are based on positive evidence of joint toxic action, elevated human exposure conditions or the potential for significant impacts on human health. Policy issues include legislative drivers that may mandate action even though adequate toxicity data on a specific mixture may not be available and risk assessment goals that impact the choice of risk assessment method to obtain the amount of health protection desired. This paper discusses three important concepts used to choose among available approaches for conducting a chemical mixtures risk assessment: (1) additive joint toxic action of mixture components; (2) toxicological interactions of mixture components; and (3) chemical composition of complex mixtures. It is proposed that scientific support for basic assumptions used in chemical mixtures risk assessment should be developed by expert panels, risk assessment methods experts, and laboratory toxicologists. This is imperative to further develop and refine quantitative methods and provide guidance on their appropriate applications. Risk assessors need scientific support for chemical mixtures risk assessment methods in the form of toxicological data on joint toxic action for high priority mixtures, statistical methods for analyzing dose-response for mixtures, and toxicological and statistical criteria for determining sufficient similarity of complex mixtures

Overview of DOE-NE Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadasivan, Pratap

2012-01-01

Research objectives are: (1) Develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of current reactors; (2) Develop improvements in the affordability of new reactors to enable nuclear energy; (3) Develop Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and (4) Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism. The goal is to enable the use of risk information to inform NE R and D program planning. The PTRA program supports DOE-NE's goal of using risk information to inform R and D program planning. The FY12 PTRA program is focused on terrorism risk. The program includes a mix of innovative methods that support the general practice of risk assessments, and selected applications.

Systematic assessment of environmental risk factors for bipolar disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bortolato, Beatrice; Köhler, Cristiano A.; Evangelou, Evangelos

2017-01-01

factors supported by high epidemiological credibility. Methods: We searched the Pubmed/MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycInfo databases up to 7 October 2016 to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies that assessed associations between putative environmental risk factors and BD......Objectives: The pathophysiology of bipolar disorder is likely to involve both genetic and environmental risk factors. In our study, we aimed to perform a systematic search of environmental risk factors for BD. In addition, we assessed possible hints of bias in this literature, and identified risk...... met the inclusion criteria (seven meta-analyses and nine qualitative systematic reviews). Fifty-one unique environmental risk factors for BD were evaluated. Six meta-analyses investigated associations with a risk factor for BD. Only irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) emerged as a risk factor for BD...

Development of a non-expert risk assessment method for hand-arm related tasks (HARM)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Douwes, M.; Kraker, H. de

2014-01-01

To support health and safety practitioners in their obligation of risk assessment the 'Hand Arm Risk Assessment Method' (HARM) was developed. This tool can be used by any type of company for risk assessment of developing arm, neck or shoulders symptoms (pain) resulting from light manual tasks.This

What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K

2012-01-01

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Ravi Rajan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2008-01-01

Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

Science.gov (United States)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Effects of Social Support Network Size on Mortality Risk: Considerations by Diabetes Status.

Science.gov (United States)

Loprinzi, Paul D; Ford, M Allison

2018-05-01

Previous work demonstrates that social support is inversely associated with mortality risk. Less research, however, has examined the effects of the size of the social support network on mortality risk among those with and without diabetes, which was the purpose of this study. Data from the 1999-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed through 2011. This study included 1,412 older adults (≥60 years of age) with diabetes and 5,872 older adults without diabetes. The size of the social support network was assessed via self-report and reported as the number of participants' close friends. Among those without diabetes, various levels of social support network size were inversely associated with mortality risk. However, among those with diabetes, only those with a high social support network size (i.e., at least six close friends) had a reduced risk of all-cause mortality. That is, compared to those with zero close friends, those with diabetes who had six or more close friends had a 49% reduced risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.51, 95% CI 0.27-0.94). To mitigate mortality risk, a greater social support network size may be needed for those with diabetes.

Risk assessment activities at NIOSH: Information resources and needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stayner, L.T.; Meinhardt, T.; Hardin, B. [National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Cincinnati, OH (United States)

1990-12-31

Under the Occupational Safety and Health, and Mine Safety and Health Acts, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) is charged with development of recommended occupational safety and health standards, and with conducting research to support the development of these standards. Thus, NIOSH has been actively involved in the analysis of risk associated with occupational exposures, and in the development of research information that is critical for the risk assessment process. NIOSH research programs and other information resources relevant to the risk assessment process are described in this paper. Future needs for information resources are also discussed.

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margaret M. MacDonell

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.;

Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

An economic assessment of population health risk in region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina Vladimirovna Zaytseva

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of economic assessment of population health risk as a tool of life qualitymanagement and qualityof labor resources in the region (as factors of a region’s economic security. The technique is based on the cost of reducing the period of disability in the implementation of population health risk and takes into account the effects of risk prevention on levels of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation. The method intends to support making decisions on planning measures to reduce population health risk at the level of regions, territories and separate objects to assess their cost-performance, optimization of investment and operating costs to reduce the population health risk and sustainable development of the territory

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Progress of environmental management and risk assessment of industrial chemicals in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Hong; Yan Zhenguang; Li Hong; Yang Niyun; Leung, Kenneth M.Y.; Wang Yizhe; Yu Ruozhen; Zhang Lai; Wang Wanhua; Jiao Congying

2012-01-01

With China’s rapid economic growth, chemical-related environmental issues have become increasingly prominent, and the environmental management of chemicals has garnered increased attention from the government. This review focuses on the current situation and the application of risk assessment in China’s environmental management of industrial chemicals. The related challenges and research needs of the country are also discussed. The Chinese government promulgated regulations for the import and export of toxic chemicals in 1994. Regulations for new chemical substances came into force in 2003, and were revised in 2010 based on the concept of risk management. In order to support the implementation of new regulations, Guidance for Risk Assessment of Chemicals is under development in an attempt to provide the concepts and techniques of risk assessment. With increasing concern and financial support from Chinese government, China is embarking on the fast track of research and development in environmental management of industrial chemicals. - This paper reviews the current situation of industrial chemical management in China, and discusses the application of risk assessment and further research needs in this field.

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

2018-03-01

Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 2: Supporting documents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tortorelli, J.P. [ed.] [Lockheed Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

1995-08-01

A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains presentation material and a transcript of the workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report.

A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 2: Supporting documents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tortorelli, J.P.

1995-08-01

A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains presentation material and a transcript of the workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC's intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report

Operational Performance Risk Assessment in Support of A Supervisory Control System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denning, Richard S. [Self Employed; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL; Cetiner, Sacit M. [ORNL; Guler Yigitoglu, Askin [ORNL

2017-06-01

Supervisory control system (SCS) is developed for multi-unit advanced small modular reactors to minimize human interventions in both normal and abnormal operations. In SCS, control action decisions made based on probabilistic risk assessment approach via Event Trees/Fault Trees. Although traditional PRA tools are implemented, their scope is extended to normal operations and application is reversed; success of non-safety related system instead failure of safety systems this extended PRA approach called as operational performance risk assessment (OPRA). OPRA helps to identify success paths, combination of control actions for transients and to quantify these success paths to provide possible actions without activating plant protection system. In this paper, a case study of the OPRA in supervisory control system is demonstrated within the context of the ALMR PRISM design, specifically power conversion system. The scenario investigated involved a condition that the feed water control valve is observed to be drifting to the closed position. Alternative plant configurations were identified via OPRA that would allow the plant to continue to operate at full or reduced power. Dynamic analyses were performed with a thermal-hydraulic model of the ALMR PRISM system using Modelica to evaluate remained safety margins. Successful recovery paths for the selected scenario are identified and quantified via SCS.

Maternal adverse childhood experiences and antepartum risks: the moderating role of social support.

Science.gov (United States)

Racine, Nicole; Madigan, Sheri; Plamondon, Andre; Hetherington, Erin; McDonald, Sheila; Tough, Suzanne

2018-03-28

The aims of the current study were to examine the association between maternal adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and antepartum health risks, and to investigate whether social support moderated this association. It was hypothesized that ACEs would be associated with antepartum health risks; however, social support in the prenatal period would buffer mothers from the deleterious consequences of ACEs. Data from 1994 women (mean age = 31 years) and their infants were collected from a longitudinal cohort recruited in health care offices in Alberta, Canada. Pregnant women completed questionnaires related to ACEs prior to the age of 18 and prenatal social support, and a health care professional assessed the mother's antepartum health risk. ACEs included physical, emotional, and sexual abuse, exposure to domestic violence, as well as exposure to household dysfunction such as parental substance use, mental illness, or incarceration. Regression analyses demonstrated a positive association between ACEs and antepartum health risks. However, a significant interaction between maternal ACEs and social support was also observed. Specifically, women exposed to high ACEs and low social support in pregnancy had high antepartum health risks. However, among mothers who had high ACEs but also high levels of social support, there was no association between ACEs and antepartum health risk. A history of ACEs can place mothers at risk of antepartum health complications. However, a resiliency effect was observed: women with a history of ACEs were buffered from experiencing antepartum health risks if they reported high levels of social support in pregnancy.

Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders.

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

2017-06-04

This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as "relatively low", contrasting with 21.4% rated as "relatively high". Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders.

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Exploring the development of a decision support system (DSS) to prioritize engineered nanoparticles for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marvin, Hans J. P.; Bouwmeester, Hans; Bakker, Martine; Kroese, E. Dinant; Meent, Dik van de; Bourgeois, Francois; Lokers, Rob; Ham, Henk van der; Verhelst, Lieke

2013-01-01

Engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) have gained huge commercial interest because of their unique and size-related physicochemical properties. The diversity and complexity of ENPs is increasing with the introduction of next generation nanoparticles. The current approaches are not able to assess the safety of all types and applications of ENPs. Therefore, we are developing a decision support system (DSS) that helps to identify those ENPs and applications that should get priority in the risk assessment. This DSS smartly uses existing knowledge in publicly available databases. With the aid of vocabularies, knowledge rules and logic reasoning new knowledge will be derived. In this paper, the procedure for a DSS is described. Since this system is open by design, others can re-use and extend the DSS content, and newly developed DSS tools can be easily accommodated, which will make the DSS more effective over the years. Data of newly emerging studies will be used for the validation of the DSS. The results will benefit regulating authorities and scientists focussing on the development of inherently safe ENPs

Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

2014-09-01

Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Hong

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs. The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

2010-04-01

Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

Hazard waste risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

1986-01-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

Innovative human health and ecological risk assessment techniques at Hanford

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, S.; Jones, K.; Goller, E.

1993-01-01

The open-quotes Hanford Site Baseline Risk Assessment Methodologyclose quotes (HSBRAM) was developed to enhance the preparation of risk assessments supporting the Hanford site cleanup mission. This methodology satisfies a Hanford federal facility agreement and consent order (tri-party agreement) milestone and is used to evaluate the risk to human health and the environment under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). The methodology was prepared by the Hanford Risk Assessment Committee (RAC) consisting of tri-party representatives: the U.S. Department of Energy, the State of Washington Department of Ecology, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with associated contractors. The risk assessment guidance provided by EPA is sufficiently general to permit tailoring of specific parameters to meet the risk assessment needs of individual sites. The RAC utilized EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, (RAGS) as the cornerstone of the HSBRAM. The RAC added necessary Hanford-specific elements to construct a complete risk assessment guidance for utilization as an independent document. The HSBRAM is a living document because the RAC charter emphasizes the importance of continued methodology reevaluation. The HSBRAM also provides guidelines for the application of EPA's open-quotes Framework for Ecological Risk Assessmentclose quotes to Hanford-specific environmental baseline risk assessments by including endangered and threatened species in addition to sensitive habitats potentially associated with the Hanford site and guidance for selection of ecotoxicological data. Separate negotiations for the selection of risk parameters for each operable unit were avoided by defining parameters in the HSBRAM. There are 78 past-practice operable units at Hanford requiring risk assessments

Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

2011-06-01

Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

2015-01-01

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

2015-12-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Verbeke Sven

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

1997-01-01

This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

A Chemical Activity Approach to Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemicals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gobas, Frank A. P. C.; Mayer, Philipp; Parkerton, Thomas F.

2018-01-01

activity approach, its strengths and limitations, and provides examples of how this concept may be applied to the management of single chemicals and chemical mixtures. The examples demonstrate that the chemical activity approach provides a useful framework for 1) compiling and evaluating exposure......To support the goals articulated in the vision for exposure and risk assessment in the twenty-first century, we highlight the application of a thermodynamic chemical activity approach for the exposure and risk assessment of chemicals in the environment. The present article describes the chemical...... assessment. The article further illustrates that the chemical activity approach can support an adaptive management strategy for environmental stewardship of chemicals where “safe” chemical activities are established based on toxicological studies and presented as guidelines for environmental quality...

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-04-01

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

Progress in violence risk assessment and communication: hypothesis versus evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E

2015-02-01

We draw a distinction between hypothesis and evidence with respect to the assessment and communication of the risk of violent recidivism. We suggest that some authorities in the field have proposed quite valid and reasonable hypotheses with respect to several issues. Among these are the following: that accuracy will be improved by the adjustment or moderation of numerical scores based on clinical opinions about rare risk factors or other considerations pertaining to the applicability to the case at hand; that there is something fundamentally distinct about protective factors so that they are not merely the obverse of risk factors, such that optimal accuracy cannot be achieved without consideration of such protective factors; and that assessment of dynamic factors is required for optimal accuracy and furthermore interventions aimed at such dynamic factors can be expected to cause reductions in violence risk. We suggest here that, while these are generally reasonable hypotheses, they have been inappropriately presented to practitioners as empirically supported facts, and that practitioners' assessment and communication about violence risk run beyond that supported by the available evidence as a result. We further suggest that this represents harm, especially in impeding scientific progress. Nothing here justifies stasis or simply surrendering to authoritarian custody with somatic treatment. Theoretically motivated and clearly articulated assessment and intervention should be provided for offenders, but in a manner that moves the field more firmly from hypotheses to evidence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

Progress of environmental management and risk assessment of industrial chemicals in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hong; Yan, Zhen-Guang; Li, Hong; Yang, Ni-Yun; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Wang, Yi-Zhe; Yu, Ruo-Zhen; Zhang, Lai; Wang, Wan-Hua; Jiao, Cong-Ying; Liu, Zheng-Tao

2012-06-01

With China's rapid economic growth, chemical-related environmental issues have become increasingly prominent, and the environmental management of chemicals has garnered increased attention from the government. This review focuses on the current situation and the application of risk assessment in China's environmental management of industrial chemicals. The related challenges and research needs of the country are also discussed. The Chinese government promulgated regulations for the import and export of toxic chemicals in 1994. Regulations for new chemical substances came into force in 2003, and were revised in 2010 based on the concept of risk management. In order to support the implementation of new regulations, Guidance for Risk Assessment of Chemicals is under development in an attempt to provide the concepts and techniques of risk assessment. With increasing concern and financial support from Chinese government, China is embarking on the fast track of research and development in environmental management of industrial chemicals. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

Web-enabling Ecological Risk Assessment for Accessibility and Transparency

Science.gov (United States)

Ecological risk methods and tools are necessarily diverse to account for different combinations of receptors, exposure processes, effects estimation, and degree of conservatism/realism necessary to support chemical-based assessments. These tools have been continuously developed s...

Neonicotinoids and bees: The case of the European regulatory risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Auteri, Domenica; Arena, Maria; Barmaz, Stefania; Ippolito, Alessio; Linguadoca, Alberto; Molnar, Tunde; Sharp, Rachel; Szentes, Csaba; Vagenende, Benedicte; Verani, Alessia

2017-02-01

Neonicotinoid insecticides are systemic pesticides authorised in Europe since 1991. From their introduction on the market, they have received significant attention from the scientific community, particularly regarding the assessment of lethal and sublethal effects on bees. The availability of scientific evidence alongside some concerns raised on the bee health led to the development of more articulate risk assessment methodologies for pesticides. To support the European Commission in its decision-making process, since 2012 EFSA has been requested to evaluate the risk to bees posed by the exposure to neonicotinoids. The outcome of the EFSA evaluations has been used by risk managers to revise the approval conditions of the substances clothianidin, imidacloprid and thiamethoxam and to impose severe restrictions on their use. Meanwhile, a number of new studies have been carried out. EFSA is evaluating these data in order to further support the decision-making process with updated scientific assessments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological models in support of regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: developing a strategy for the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Forbes, Valery E; Hommen, Udo; Thorbek, Pernille; Heimbach, Fred; Van den Brink, Paul J; Wogram, Jörn; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Grimm, Volker

2009-01-01

This brief communication reports on the main findings of the LEMTOX workshop, held from 9 to 12 September 2007, at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, Germany. The workshop brought together a diverse group of stakeholders from academia, regulatory authorities, contract research organizations, and industry, representing Europe, the United States, and Asia, to discuss the role of ecological modeling in risk assessments of pesticides, particularly under the European regulatory framework. The following questions were addressed: What are the potential benefits of using ecological models in pesticide registration and risk assessment? What obstacles prevent ecological modeling from being used routinely in regulatory submissions? What actions are needed to overcome the identified obstacles? What recommendations should be made to ensure good modeling practice in this context? The workshop focused exclusively on population models, and discussion was focused on those categories of population models that link effects on individuals (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction, behavior) to effects on population dynamics. The workshop participants concluded that the overall benefits of ecological modeling are that it could bring more ecology into ecological risk assessment, and it could provide an excellent tool for exploring the importance of, and interactions among, ecological complexities. However, there are a number of challenges that need to be overcome before such models will receive wide acceptance for pesticide risk assessment, despite having been used extensively in other contexts (e.g., conservation biology). The need for guidance on Good Modeling Practice (on model development, analysis, interpretation, evaluation, documentation, and communication), as well as the need for case studies that can be used to explore the added value of ecological models for risk assessment, were identified as top priorities. Assessing recovery potential of exposed

Who comes to a workplace health risk assessment?

Science.gov (United States)

Dobbins, T A; Simpson, J M; Oldenburg, B; Owen, N; Harris, D

1998-01-01

Workplace health promotion initiatives have proliferated, but there are difficulties in recruiting employees of lower socioeconomic status and at higher risk of disease. A survey of health behaviors and attitudes was administered in 20 worksites and the opportunity to attend a health risk assessment promoted. Those more likely to attend were women, those of higher occupational prestige, and those from a non-English-speaking background. After adjustment for these variables, the only health behavior associated with attendance was smoking status. Perceived risk of lung cancer was significant, even after adjustment for smoking status. Stage of readiness to change health behaviors was associated with attendance, with those in the preparation stage being more likely to attend than those in the precontemplation stage. However, this association was statistically significant only for fruit and vegetable consumption. There was no relation between attendance and support for health promotion, perceived general health, or other perceived risk of disease. These findings suggest that additional risk communication strategies and environmental support are required to involve those with less prestigious occupations.

Money laundering: correlation between risk assessment and suspicious transactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonja Cindori

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The risk assessment system was introduced in the Republic of Croatia in 2009, as a result of harmonization with international standards, especially the Directive 2005/60/EC on the prevention of the use of the financial system for the purpose of money laundering and terrorist financing. Risk assessment is an extensive concept which requires not only a legislative framework, but also the application of numerous criteria for its effective implementation in practice. Among these criteria are suspicious transactions, closely related to the assessment of the customer, transaction, product or service.The undeniable contribution of suspicious transactions to the quality of the risk assessment system will be confirmed by a statistical analysis of a number of West and East European countries. A combination of strict, but sufficiently flexible legal provisions governing the system for prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing and a statistical analysis of reported suspicious transactions will lead to conclusions that either support or represent criticism of the efficiency of application of the risk assessment system in practice.The aforementioned statistical analysis will show whether suspicious transactions are a reliable criterion for the risk assessment analysis, and whether they can be considered the only such criterion. There is a possibility that the findings of the analysis will be contradictory to those of some international studies.

Health risk assessment of dichloromethane (methylene chloride) in California ground water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogen, K.T.; Hall, L.C.; Wright, K.; McKone, T.E.

1992-01-01

This document presents an assessment of potential health risks associated with exposure to dichloromethane (DCM) dissolved in California drinking water, focusing primarily on information relevant to a determination of potential cancer risk that may be associated with such exposures to DCM. This assessment is being provided to the California Environmental Protection Agency for the development of drinking-water standards to manage the health risks of DCM exposures. Other assessments required in the risk-management process include analyses of the technical and economic feasibilities of treating water supplies contaminated with DCM. The primary goal of this health-risk assessment is to evaluate scientifically plausible dose-response relationships for observed and potential DCM-induced cancer in order to define dose rates that can be used to establish standards that win protect members of the general public from this chronic toxicity endpoint resulting solely from groundwater-based exposures to DCM, based on information obtained from the scientific literature. The document consists of seven sections, plus one supporting appendix. Each section provides information that can be used to develop DCM drinking-water standards that will safeguard human health. Evaluation of this information in support of specific groundwater safety standards for DCM was not conducted in this report; rather, the basis for selection of alternative standards, along with a narrative description of certain key sources of underlying uncertainty, are presented for evaluation through the regulatory risk-management process

Strategy for integrated CERCLA/NEPA risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; Blunt, D.A.; Fingleton, D.J.; Picel, M.H.

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has established a policy whereby, for remedial actions, the procedural and documentational requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are integrated with those of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. However, the objectives of risk assessment under NEPA and CERCLA differ somewhat. Until its recent application at contaminated sites, NEPA analysis has typically been applied to impacts from taking actions at clean sites (e.g., for construction activities), and a somewhat loosely structured process has historically been used to estimate relative risks for NEPA analyses. Decisions such as cleanup levels were not made on the basis of the risk estimates, and they therefore tended to be conservative and were not discussed in detail. In contrast, risks estimated for Superfund (CERCLA) sites are used to focus the decision-making process for those sites and support national prioritization for cleanup, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a detailed framework for preparing baseline health risk assessments for these sites. The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to intergrating the CERCLA and NEPA approaches into the risk assessments that have been prepared for a DOE remedial action project at the Weldon Spring site near St. Charles, Missouri. These issues are grouped into three basic categories: general assumptions for the impact evaluation, data management, and presentation of the methodology and results. This paper is not intended to represent DOE policy and guidance, nor does it represent the only approach that can be used for integrated risk assessments. It merely discusses the process that was used for the Weldon Spring project, articulating the issues that were encountered and how they were addressed

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Online application of a risk management system for risk assessment and monitoring at NPPs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Jun, E-mail: youngjun51@hotmail.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Yang, Ming, E-mail: yangming@hrbeu.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Wang, Wenlin, E-mail: wlwang0618@126.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Li, Fengjun, E-mail: leefengjun@163.com [China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. Ltd (China)

2016-08-15

Highlights: • A generic GO-FLOW modeling structure is proposed for easily Living PSA development and analysis. • Hierarchical and modularized scheme is applied in the development of Living PSA models and database. • A risk management system is developed by GO-FLOW method. • Functional testing is conducted on the risk management system for performance evaluation. • The fast solution time derived from Living PSA application is supportive in plant safety management. - Abstract: The paper presents a risk management system on the basis of Living PSA models which are developed under a proposed generic GO-FLOW modeling method with a hierarchical and modular structure. The design of the risk management system is aiming at assisting plant personnel to manage maintenance plan and system configuration, and conduct system reliability monitoring, risk monitoring and risk management quickly and conveniently through graphical user interfaces without going deep into the details of building, updating and analyzing reliability and risk models. The performance of the proposed risk management system was tested on a full-scale simulator of PWR nuclear power plant and demonstrated that the fast solution time derived from utilization of hierarchical and modularized Living PSA models is strongly supportive for instantaneous risk assessment as well as for daily risk management at NPPs.

Evaluating Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Interactions with Computational Models in Supporting Cumulative Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Yu-Mei; Clewell, Harvey; Campbell, Jerry; Andersen, Melvin

2011-01-01

Simultaneous or sequential exposure to multiple chemicals may cause interactions in the pharmacokinetics (PK) and/or pharmacodynamics (PD) of the individual chemicals. Such interactions can cause modification of the internal or target dose/response of one chemical in the mixture by other chemical(s), resulting in a change in the toxicity from that predicted from the summation of the effects of the single chemicals using dose additivity. In such cases, conducting quantitative cumulative risk assessment for chemicals present as a mixture is difficult. The uncertainties that arise from PK interactions can be addressed by developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to describe the disposition of chemical mixtures. Further, PK models can be developed to describe mechanisms of action and tissue responses. In this article, PBPK/PD modeling efforts conducted to investigate chemical interactions at the PK and PD levels are reviewed to demonstrate the use of this predictive modeling framework in assessing health risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures. PMID:21655141

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

2010-01-01

The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling, already exist with multipollutant characteristics. However, the framework needs to be supported with information on exposure and concentration response relationships that result from multipollutant health studies. Because the causal chain that links management actions to emission reductions, air quality improvements, exposure reductions and health outcomes is parallel between prospective risk analyses and retrospective accountability assessments, both types of assessment should be placed within a single framework with common metrics and indicators where possible. Improvements in risk reductions can be obtained by adopting a multipollutant risk analysis framework within the current air quality management

Failure rate data for fusion safety and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.

1993-01-01

The Fusion Safety Program (FSP) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) conducts safety research in materials, chemical reactions, safety analysis, risk assessment, and in component research and development to support existing magnetic fusion experiments and also to promote safety in the design of future experiments. One of the areas of safety research is applying probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to fusion experiments. To apply PRA, we need a fusion-relevant radiological dose code and a component failure rate data base. This paper describes the FSP effort to develop a failure rate data base for fusion-specific components

Study of Risk Assessment Programs at Federal Agencies and Commercial Industry Related to the Conduct or Regulation of High Hazard Operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.; Rosenbloom, S.; O'Brien, J.

2011-01-01

In the Department of Energy (DOE) Implementation Plan (IP) for Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board's Recommendation 2009-1, the DOE committed to studying the use of quantitative risk assessment methodologies at government agencies and industry. This study consisted of document reviews and interviews of senior management and risk assessment staff at six organizations. Data were collected and analyzed on risk assessment applications, risk assessment tools, and controls and infrastructure supporting the correct usage of risk assessment and risk management tools. The study found that the agencies were in different degrees of maturity in the use of risk assessment to support the analysis of high hazard operations and to support decisions related to these operations. Agencies did not share a simple, 'one size fits all' approach to tools, controls, and infrastructure needs. The agencies recognized that flexibility was warranted to allow use of risk assessment tools in a manner that is commensurate with the complexity of the application. The study also found that, even with the lack of some data, agencies application of the risk analysis structured approach could provide useful insights such as potential system vulnerabilities. This study, in combination with a companion study of risk assessment programs in the DOE Offices involved in high hazard operations, is being used to determine the nature and type of controls and infrastructure needed to support risk assessments at the DOE.

Intrapersonal, interpersonal, and contextual risk factors for overprovision of partner support in marriage.

Science.gov (United States)

Brock, Rebecca L; Lawrence, Erika

2014-02-01

Recent research indicates that receiving too much support from one's spouse (i.e., overprovision of support) is actually more detrimental to marriage than not receiving enough support. The principal goal of the present study was to develop a novel framework for explaining the pathways through which couples experience overprovision of support in their marriages. Intrapersonal factors (anxious and avoidant attachment), interpersonal factors (conflict management and emotional intimacy), and contextual factors (stress originating outside of the marriage) were assessed during the transition into marriage as potential risk factors for experiencing higher levels of support overprovision during the first 5 years of marriage in a sample of 103 couples using growth curve analytic techniques. To the extent that (a) husbands were higher in avoidant attachment, (b) husbands reported greater chronic role strain, and (c) couples had lower levels of emotional intimacy, support overprovision was greater for both husbands and wives. In addition, emotional intimacy (lower levels) was a partial pathway through which husband avoidant attachment contributed to support overprovision. Finally, factors placing couples at risk for support overprovision in their marriages appear to be distinct from those increasing the risk for support underprovision. The potential for results to inform contemporary marital theories and marital preparation programs is discussed.

Development and application of an innovative expert decision support system to manage sediments and to assess environmental risk in freshwater ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Dagnino, Alessandro; Bo, Tiziano; Copetta, Andrea; Fenoglio, Stefano; Oliveri, Caterina; Bencivenga, Mauro; Felli, Angelo; Viarengo, Aldo

2013-10-01

With the aim of supporting decision makers to manage contamination in freshwater environments, an innovative expert decision support system (EDSS) was developed. The EDSS was applied in a sediment quality assessment along the Bormida river (NW, Italy) which has been heavily contaminated by an upstream industrial site for more than a century. Sampling sites were classified by means of comparing chemical concentrations with effect-based target values (threshold and probable effect concentrations). The level of each contaminant and the combined toxic pressure were used to rank sites into three categories: (i) uncontaminated (8 sites), (ii) mildly contaminated (4) and (iii) heavily contaminated (19). In heavily contaminated sediments, an environmental risk index (EnvRI) was determined by means of integrating chemical data with ecotoxicological and ecological parameters (triad approach). In addition a sediment risk index (SedRI) was computed from combining chemical and ecotoxicological data. Eight sites exhibited EnvRI values ≥0.25, the safety threshold level (range of EnvRI values: 0.14-0.31) whereas SedRI exceeded the safety threshold level at 6 sites (range of SedRI values: 0.16-0.36). At sites classified as mildly contaminated, sublethal biomarkers were integrated with chemical data into a biological vulnerability index (BVI), which exceeded the safety threshold level at one site (BVI value: 0.28). Finally, potential human risk was assessed in selected stations (11 sites) by integrating genotoxicity biomarkers (GTI index falling in the range 0.00-0.53). General conclusions drawn from the EDSS data include: (i) in sites classified as heavily contaminated, only a few exhibited some significant, yet limited, effects on biodiversity; (ii) restrictions in re-using sediments from heavily contaminated sites found little support in ecotoxicological data; (iii) in the majority of the sites classified as mildly contaminated, tested organisms exhibited low response levels

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

Science.gov (United States)

Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

2009-01-01

The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

Risk reduction using DDP (Defect Detection and Prevention): Software support and software applications

Science.gov (United States)

Feather, M. S.

2001-01-01

Risk assessment and mitigation is the focus of the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) process, which has been applied to spacecraft technology assessments and planning, both hardware and software. DDP's major elements and their relevance to core requirement engineering concerns are summarized. The accompanying research demonstration illustrates DDP's tool support, and further customizations for application to software.

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

THE USE OF STEM CELLS FOR TOXICOLOGY STUDIES AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

Science.gov (United States)

In general terms, toxicology studies are used in support of risk assessments of adverse health outcomes as a result of exposures to chemical and physical agents. In particular, toxicological data are used to provide information that aids in the assessment of disease outcomes at e...

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Methodology for Radiological Risk Assessment of Deep Borehole Disposal Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hardin, Ernest; Su, Jiann-Cherng; Peretz, Fred(ORNL)

2017-03-01

The primary purpose of the preclosure radiological safety assessment (that this document supports) is to identify risk factors for disposal operations, to aid in design for the deep borehole field test (DBFT) engineering demonstration.

Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

2011-12-01

In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

The socio-economic dimension of flood risk assessment: insights of KULTURisk framework

Science.gov (United States)

Giupponi, Carlo; Gain, Animesh; Mojtahed, Vahid; Balbi, Stefano

2013-04-01

The approaches for vulnerability and risk assessment have found different and often contrasting solutions by various schools of thought. The two most prominent communities in this field are: climate change adaptation (CCA), and disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although those communities have usually in common the aim of reducing socio-economic vulnerability and risk to natural hazards, they have usually referred to different definitions and conceptualizations. For example, the DRR community has always driven more emphasis on the concept of risk and vulnerability is considered as a physical/environmental input for the quantification of risk, while the CCA research stream, mainly under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), considered vulnerability as an output deriving from social conditions and processes such as adaptation or maladaptation. Recently, with the publication of the IPCC Special Report on extreme events and disasters (IPCC-SREX), the notions of vulnerability and risk are somehow integrated in order to jointly consider both climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. The IPCC-SREX indeed is expected to significantly contribute to find common language and methodological approaches across disciplines and, therefore, the opportunity emerges for proposing new operational solutions, consistent with the most recent evolution of concepts and terminology. Based on the development of the IPCC Report, the KULTURisk project developed an operational framework to support integrated assessment and decision support through the combination of contributions from diverse disciplinary knowledge, with emphasis on the social and economic dimensions. KIRAF (KULTURisk Integrated Risk Assessment Framework) is specifically aimed at comprehensively evaluate the benefits of risk mitigation measures with consideration of the dynamic context deriving from the consideration of climatic changes and their effects on natural disasters, within the

Optimizing Tailored Communications for Health Risk Assessment: A Randomized Factorial Experiment of the Effects of Expectancy Priming, Autonomy Support, and Exemplification

Science.gov (United States)

Ribisl, Kurt M; Mayer, Deborah K; Tate, Deborah F

2018-01-01

Background Health risk assessments with tailored feedback plus health education have been shown to be effective for promoting health behavior change. However, there is limited evidence to guide the development and delivery of online automated tailored feedback. Objective The goal of this study was to optimize tailored feedback messages for an online health risk assessment to promote enhanced user engagement, self-efficacy, and behavioral intentions for engaging in healthy behaviors. We examined the effects of three theory-based message factors used in developing tailored feedback messages on levels of engagement, self-efficacy, and behavioral intentions. Methods We conducted a randomized factorial experiment to test three different components of tailored feedback messages: tailored expectancy priming, autonomy support, and use of an exemplar. Individuals (N=1945) were recruited via Amazon Mechanical Turk and randomly assigned to one of eight different experimental conditions within one of four behavioral assessment and feedback modules (tobacco use, physical activity [PA], eating habits, and weight). Participants reported self-efficacy and behavioral intentions pre- and postcompletion of an online health behavior assessment with tailored feedback. Engagement and message perceptions were assessed at follow-up. Results For the tobacco module, there was a significant main effect of the exemplar factor (P=.04); participants who received exemplar messages (mean 3.31, SE 0.060) rated their self-efficacy to quit tobacco higher than those who did not receive exemplar messages (mean 3.14, SE 0.057). There was a three-way interaction between the effect of message conditions on self-efficacy to quit tobacco (P=.02), such that messages with tailored priming and an exemplar had the greatest impact on self-efficacy to quit tobacco. Across PA, eating habits, and weight modules, there was a three-way interaction among conditions on self-efficacy (P=.048). The highest self

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: An introduction

Science.gov (United States)

Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease r...

Is risk assessment the new clinical model in public mental health?

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Alex

2013-12-01

Australian public mental health services have seen a rapid adoption of risk assessment into clinical practice over the past decade. It is timely to review the role of risk assessment in clinical practice, evidence for its validity and to explore its role in clinical decision-making. There is little evidence to support the current form of risk assessment used in public mental health. The continued focus in risk may lead public psychiatrists into a bind where their specialist role is defined by a capacity that they do not fully possess. Further work is required to find ways of demonstrating our attention to the possibility of adverse outcomes whilst maintaining our skills and capacity to manage mental illness with complexity and balance within the limitations of rational decision-making.

Risk assessment of nanomaterials and nanoproducts – adaptation of traditional approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jahnel, J; Fleischer, T; Seitz, S B

2013-01-01

Different approaches have been adopted for assessing the potential risks of conventional chemicals and products for human health. In general, the traditional paradigm is a toxicological-driven chemical-by-chemical approach, focusing on single toxic endpoints. Scope and responsibilities for the development and implementation of a risk assessment concept vary across sectors and areas and depends on the specific regulatory environment and the specific protection goals. Thus, risk assessment implication is a complex task based not only on science based knowledge but also on the regulatory context involving different parties and stakeholders. Questions have been raised whether standard paradigms for conventional chemicals would be applicable and adequate for new materials, products and applications of nanotechnology. Most scientists and stakeholders assume that current standard methods are in principle applicable to nanomaterials, but specific aspects require further development. The paper presents additional technical improvements like the complementary use of the life cycle methodology and the support of risk-based classification systems. But also aspects improving the utility of risk assessment with regard to societal impacts on risk governance are discussed.

Current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. 1. Features and issues of probabilistic risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamashita, Masahiro

2012-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) could play an important role in assuring safety of NPPs. However PRA had not always effectively used, which was indicated in Japanese government's report on Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. At the Risk Technical Committee (RTC) of Standards Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan, preparation of standards (implementing criteria) focusing on PRA methodology and investigation on basic philosophy for use of PRA had been in progress. Based on activities of RTC, a serial in three articles including this described current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. This article introduced features and issues of PRA methodology related to the use of PRA. Features of PRA methodology could be shown as (1) systematic and comprehensive understanding of risk, (2) support of grading approach, (3) identification of effective safety upgrade measures and (4) quantitative understanding of effects of uncertainty. Issues of PRA methodology were (1) extension of PRA application area, (2) upgrade of PRA methodology, (3) quality assurance of PRA, (4) treatment of uncertainty and (5) quantitative evaluation criteria. (T. Tanaka)

Evaluation of Lay Support in Pregnant women with Social risk (ELSIPS: a randomised controlled trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenyon Sara

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Maternal, neonatal and child health outcomes are worse in families from black and ethnic minority groups and disadvantaged backgrounds. There is little evidence on whether lay support improves maternal and infant outcomes among women with complex social needs within a disadvantaged multi-ethnic population in the United Kingdom (UK. Method/Design The aim of this study is to evaluate a lay Pregnancy Outreach Worker (POW service for nulliparous women identified as having social risk within a maternity service that is systematically assessing social risks alongside the usual obstetric and medical risks. The study design is a randomised controlled trial (RCT in nulliparous women assessed as having social risk comparing standard maternity care with the addition of referral to the POW support service. The POWs work alongside community midwifery teams and offer individualised support to women to encourage engagement with services (health and social care from randomisation (before 28 weeks gestation until 6 weeks after birth. The primary outcomes have been chosen on the basis that they are linked to maternal and infant health. The two primary outcomes are engagement with antenatal care, assessed by the number of antenatal visits; and maternal depression, assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale at 8-12 weeks after birth. Secondary outcomes include maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, routine child health assessments, including immunisation uptake and breastfeeding at 6 weeks. Other psychological outcomes (self efficacy and mother-to-infant bonding will also be collected using validated tools. A sample size of 1316 will provide 90% power (at the 5% significance level to detect increased engagement with antenatal services of 1.5 visits and a reduction of 1.5 in the average EPDS score for women with two or more social risk factors, with power in excess of this for women with any social risk factor. Analysis will

Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

2016-04-01

In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baxter, J.T.

1989-01-01

An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

Social Support and Its Impact on Ethnic Identity and HIV Risk among Migrant Workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Shehadeh, Nancy; Rubens, Muni; Attonito, Jennifer; Jennings, Terri

2018-02-01

Migrant workers are disproportionately affected by HIV due to poverty, social isolation, lack of access to and availability of health care services, acculturation, language barriers, constant mobility, and lack of knowledge. This study examined the impact of changes in social support on ethnic identity and HIV risk behaviors among migrant workers in South Florida. For this study, baseline and 6-month follow-up data were collected from an HIV intervention study among migrant workers in South Florida (n = 270) who reported unprotected sex in the past 30 days. The Multigroup Identity Measure was used to assess ethnic identity and the Social Provisions Scale examined the degree to which respondents' social relationships provide various dimensions of social support. Social support was a significant predictor of ethnic identity and of ethnic identity subscales, ethnic identity belonging and ethnic identity explore. There were small but statistically significant short-term changes in ethnic identity and ethnic identity subscales among the migrant workers over the 6-month time period assessed after controlling for the intervention. Future studies should be conducted over a longer period of time to better assess this relationship and possible factors to reduce HIV risk behaviors. There is a need to focus on improving the quality of health and reduce HIV and other risks experienced by this marginalized community.

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

The importance of data collection for timely and accurate risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Gilsenan, MB

2017-09-01

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is responsible for food safety risk assessments at EU level. It provides independent scientific advice on risks associated with the food chain to support EU risk management decisions. Since its establishment, EFSA has amassed a wealth of data to underpin its risk assessments, such as food consumption data, monitoring data and experimental data. Increasing transparency of its risk assessments is a core objective of EFSA. EFSA aims to enhance the quality and transparency of its outputs by giving insofar as possible access to data and methods underpinning its scientific outputs. This paper provides an overview of the role of EFSA, its core data collections and their regulatory framework, as well as data quality and standardisation aspects. Finally, the paper elaborates on EFSA’s 2020 strategy in relation to data, and describes EFSA scientific data warehouse and Knowledge Junction in this regard.

Integrating LCA and Risk Assessment for Decision Support

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks.......The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks....

Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, R. F.; Wilby, R. L.; Brown, K.; Watkiss, P.; Betts, Richard A.; Murphy, James M.; Lowe, Jason A.

2018-06-01

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Framework for integrating human and animal data in chemical risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavelle, Karlene S; Robert Schnatter, A; Travis, Kim Z; Swaen, Gerard M H; Pallapies, Dirk; Money, Chris; Priem, Peter; Vrijhof, Henk

2012-03-01

Although regulatory agencies formally encourage the integration of all available data in chemical risk assessment, consistent implementation of this practice has been constrained by the lack of a clear, systematic method for doing so. In this paper, we describe a methodology for evaluating, classifying and integrating human and animal data into the risk assessment process that incorporates: (1) a balanced appraisal of human and animal data, (2) relevance to different stages of the risk assessment process, and (3) accommodation for different data quality requirements. The proposed framework offers a flexible, step-wise approach for determining which set of available data best support the chemical risk assessment that involves the rating and relative ranking of human and animal data quality. The evaluation of human data incorporates seven data quality elements, nature and specificity of the lead effect; evaluation of animal data incorporates data quality and relevance to humans. Results of simulations with selected chemicals previously evaluated in a formal risk assessment generally agreed with existing regulatory guidance. Application of the proposed framework across a wider range of chemical agents will improve transparency of the risk assessment process and validity of results, while informing continuous refinements to this evolving methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, R F; Wilby, R L; Brown, K; Watkiss, P; Betts, Richard A; Murphy, James M; Lowe, Jason A

2018-06-13

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Microbial aerosol generation during laboratory accidents and subsequent risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, A; Parks, S

2006-04-01

To quantify microbial aerosols generated by a series of laboratory accidents and to use these data in risk assessment. A series of laboratory accident scenarios have been devised and the microbial aerosol generated by them has been measured using a range of microbial air samplers. The accident scenarios generating the highest aerosol concentrations were, dropping a fungal plate, dropping a large bottle, centrifuge rotor leaks and a blocked syringe filter. Many of these accidents generated low particle size aerosols, which would be inhaled into the lungs of any exposed laboratory staff. Spray factors (SFs) have been calculated using the results of these experiments as an indicator of the potential for accidents to generate microbial aerosols. Model risk assessments have been described using the SF data. Quantitative risk assessment of laboratory accidents can provide data that can aid the design of containment laboratories and the response to laboratory accidents. A methodology has been described and supporting data provided to allow microbiological safety officers to carry out quantitative risk assessment of laboratory accidents.

Risk Assessment supporting the decision on the initial selection of supplemental ILAW technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MANN, F. M.

2003-09-29

A risk assessment on the long-term environmental impact of various potential waste forms was conducted at the request of the Hanford Site's Mission Acceleration Initiative Team. These potential waste forms (bulk vitrification, cast stone, and steam reformer) may treat some of the low-activity waste currently planned to be treated at the Waste Treatment Plant.

Genetic Stratification in Myeloid Diseases: From Risk Assessment to Clinical Decision Support Tool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yishai Ofran

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Genetic aberrations have become a dominant factor in the stratification of myeloid malignancies. Cytogenetic and a few mutation studies are the backbone of risk assessment models of myeloid malignancies which are a major consideration in clinical decisions, especially patient assignment for allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Progress in our understanding of the genetic basis of the pathogenesis of myeloid malignancies and the growing capabilities of mass sequencing may add new roles for the clinical usage of genetic data. A few recently identified mutations recognized to be associated with specific diseases or clinical scenarios may soon become part of the diagnostic criteria of such conditions. Mutational studies may also advance our capabilities for a more efficient patient selection process, assigning the most effective therapy at the best timing for each patient. The clinical utility of genetic data is anticipated to advance further with the adoption of deep sequencing and next-generation sequencing techniques. We herein suggest some future potential applications of sequential genetic data to identify pending deteriorations at time points which are the best for aggressive interventions such as allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Genetics is moving from being mostly a prognostic factor to becoming a multitasking decision support tool for hematologists. Physicians must pay attention to advances in molecular hematology as it will soon be accessible and influential for most of our patients.

Protection goals in environmental risk assessment: a practical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Alonso, Monica; Raybould, Alan

2014-12-01

Policy protection goals are set up in most countries to minimise harm to the environment, humans and animals caused by human activities. Decisions on whether to approve new agricultural products, like pesticides or genetically modified (GM) crops, take into account these policy protection goals. To support decision-making, applications for approval of commercial uses of GM crops usually comprise an environmental risk assessment (ERA). These risk assessments are analytical tools, based on science, that follow a conceptual model that includes a problem formulation step where policy protection goals are considered. However, in most countries, risk assessors face major problems in that policy protection goals set in the legislation are stated in very broad terms and are too ambiguous to be directly applicable in ERAs. This means that risk assessors often have to interpret policy protection goals without clear guidance on what effects would be considered harmful. In this paper we propose a practical approach that may help risk assessors to translate policy protection goals into unambiguous (i.e., operational) protection goals and to establish relevant assessment endpoints and risk hypotheses that can be used in ERAs. Examples are provided to show how this approach can be applied to two areas of environmental concern relevant to the ERAs of GM crops.

Microbiological criteria for Listeria monocytogenes in foods under special consideration of risk assessment approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørrung, Birgit

2000-01-01

This paper shortly summarizes data related to risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes. From available data on risk assessment, it is concluded that the levels of L. monocytogenes consumed is an important factor affecting the incidence of listeriosis. Foods that do not support the growth of L....... monocytogenes are unlikely to be a source of listeriosis, whereas foods that support the growth to high levels, should be the target of risk management efforts. Based on current epidemiological information from several countries, a concentration of L. monocytogenes not exceeding 100/g of food at the time...... of L. monocytogenes in the food during prevailing storage and distribution conditions is needed....

A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

2016-01-01

Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Decision support for utility environmental risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balson, W.E.; Wilson, D.S.

1991-01-01

This paper reviews a number of decision support methods developed and applied by Decision Focus Incorporated to help utility personnel manage current environmental problems. This work has been performed for the Environmental Risk Analysis Program of EPRI's Environment Division, and also for a number of electric utilities across the country. These are two distinct types of decision support software tools that have been created: economic risk management and environmental risk analysis. These types differ primarily in the identification of who will make a decision. Economic risk management tools are directed primarily at decisions made by electric utilities. Environmental risk analysis tools are directed primarily at decisions made by legislative or regulatory agencies, about which a utility may wish to comment

Assessment and presentation of uncertainties in probabilistic risk assessment: how should this be done

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garlick, A.R.; Holloway, N.J.

1987-01-01

Despite continuing improvements in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques, PRA results, particularly those including degraded core analysis, will have maximum uncertainties of several orders of magnitude. This makes the expression of results, a matter no less important than their estimation. We put forward some ideas on the assessment and expression of highly uncertain quantities, such as probabilities of outcomes of a severe accident. These do not form a consistent set, but rather a number of alternative approaches aimed at stimulating discussion. These include non-probability expressions, such as fuzzy logic or Schafer's support and plausibility which abandon the purely probabilistic expression of risk for a more flexible type of expression, in which other types of measure are possible. The 'risk equivalent plant' concepts represent the opposite approach. Since uncertainty in a risk measure is in itself a form of risk, an attempt is made to define a 'risk equivalent' which is a risk with perfectly defined parameters, regarded (by means of suitable methods of judgement) as 'equally undesirable' with the actual plant. Some guidelines are given on the use of Bayesian methods in data-free or limited data situations. (author)

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

A generic rabies risk assessment tool to support surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Michael P; Hernández-Jover, Marta

2015-06-01

The continued spread of rabies in Indonesia poses a risk to human and animal populations in the remaining free islands, as well as the neighbouring rabies-free countries of Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and Australia. Here we describe the development of a generic risk assessment tool which can be used to rapidly determine the vulnerability of rabies-free islands, so that scarce resources can be targeted to surveillance activities and the sensitivity of surveillance systems increased. The tool was developed by integrating information on the historical spread of rabies, anthropological studies, and the opinions of local animal health experts. The resulting tool is based on eight critical parameters that can be estimated from the literature, expert opinion, observational studies and information generated from routine surveillance. In the case study presented, results generated by this tool were most sensitive to the probability that dogs are present on private and fishing boats and it was predicted that rabies-infection (one infected case) might occur in a rabies-free island (upper 95% prediction interval) with a volume of 1000 boats movements. With 25,000 boat movements, the median of the probability distribution would be equal to one infected case, with an upper 95% prediction interval of six infected cases. This tool could also be used at the national-level to guide control and eradication plans. An initial recommendation from this study is to develop a surveillance programme to determine the likelihood that boats transport dogs, for example by port surveillance or regularly conducted surveys of fisherman and passenger ferries. However, the illegal nature of dog transportation from rabies-infected to rabies-free islands is a challenge for developing such surveillance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toward risk assessment 2.0: Safety supervisory control and model-based hazard monitoring for risk-informed safety interventions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favarò, Francesca M.; Saleh, Joseph H.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a staple in the engineering risk community, and it has become to some extent synonymous with the entire quantitative risk assessment undertaking. Limitations of PRA continue to occupy researchers, and workarounds are often proposed. After a brief review of this literature, we propose to address some of PRA's limitations by developing a novel framework and analytical tools for model-based system safety, or safety supervisory control, to guide safety interventions and support a dynamic approach to risk assessment and accident prevention. Our work shifts the emphasis from the pervading probabilistic mindset in risk assessment toward the notions of danger indices and hazard temporal contingency. The framework and tools here developed are grounded in Control Theory and make use of the state-space formalism in modeling dynamical systems. We show that the use of state variables enables the definition of metrics for accident escalation, termed hazard levels or danger indices, which measure the “proximity” of the system state to adverse events, and we illustrate the development of such indices. Monitoring of the hazard levels provides diagnostic information to support both on-line and off-line safety interventions. For example, we show how the application of the proposed tools to a rejected takeoff scenario provides new insight to support pilots’ go/no-go decisions. Furthermore, we augment the traditional state-space equations with a hazard equation and use the latter to estimate the times at which critical thresholds for the hazard level are (b)reached. This estimation process provides important prognostic information and produces a proxy for a time-to-accident metric or advance notice for an impending adverse event. The ability to estimate these two hazard coordinates, danger index and time-to-accident, offers many possibilities for informing system control strategies and improving accident prevention and risk mitigation

Transparency of chemical risk assessment data under REACH.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingre-Khans, Ellen; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Beronius, Anna; Rudén, Christina

2016-12-08

The REACH regulation requires EU manufacturers and importers of substances to register information on the hazard and risk of their substances with the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Risk management of the substances is based on the provided information. It is known that conclusions on hazard and risk are influenced by expert judgements as well as potential conflict of interests. Thus, it is important that hazard and risk assessments are transparent and can be evaluated by a third party. The aim of this study is to scrutinize the transparency, i.e. the accessibility and comprehensibility, of information on substances registered under REACH. Data on repeated dose toxicity and hazard assessment conclusions were extracted for 60 substances from the REACH registration database available on the ECHA website. The data were compiled in a database for systematically evaluating the transparency of information related to the conclusions on hazard or risk. In addition, chemical safety reports (CSR) were requested from ECHA for five substances. The transparency of information on the hazard and risk of substances was found to be limited for several reasons. First, certain information was removed due to confidentiality and certain fields were not published because they could contain confidential information although the information had not been claimed confidential. Also, the extent to which registrants reported information varied, and the presentation of some data and certain terminology required further clarification. In addition, the data source for the majority of the key and supporting studies could not be identified due to confidentiality. Since registrants are only required to summarise studies, it cannot be verified whether all relevant information from non-public industry reports have been reported. Lastly, certain information related to the hazard and risk assessment were only reported in the CSR which is only available upon request; a time-consuming and work

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

COMPARISON OF THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS FOR PESTICIDES AND BIOPESTICIDES

Science.gov (United States)

In the risk assessment process for pesticides, a number of variables are used, including the results obtained from the studies that support registration. Some of these variables are physical and chemical properties of the organisms (crops, growing cycles) and their environments ...

Site-Specific ecological risk assessment. Case-study 2

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, John

“Development of a decision support system for sustainable management of contaminated land by linking bioavailability, ecological risk and ground water pollution of organic pollutants”or in short “LIBERATION”. The presentation includes examples on how to scale and integrate the results from various scientific......The decision supporting and integrating assessment tool, TRIAD, is used site-specific on PAH- and heavy metal contaminated sites in Denmark. The various aspects of the TRIAD approach are used on a set of chemistry-, ecotoxicology- and ecology related data collected among others in the EU project...

Risk assessment guidance document for the UMTRA project groundwater remediation phase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-05-01

The purpose of the groundwater remedial activities at the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) sites is to reduce, control, or eliminate risks to human health and the environment. This is in accordance with Subpart B of 40 CFR 192. According to this regulation, the need for groundwater restoration is based upon US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-defined groundwater cleanup standards and must be consistent with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process. Risk assessments will be used in the UMTRA Groundwater Program to aid in the evaluation of sites. Risk assessments are conducted for four purposes: (1) Preliminary risk assessments are used to aid in prioritizing sites, scope data collection, end determine if a site presents immediate health risks. (2) Baseline risk assessments provide a comprehensive integration and interpretation of demographic, geographic, physical, chemical, and biological factors at a site to determine the extent of actual or potential harm. This information Is used to determine the need for remedial action. (3) Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives is performed to evaluate risks to humans or the environment associated with the various remedial strategies. (4) After remediation, an evaluation of residual risks is conducted. The information gathered for each of these risk evaluations is used to determine the need for subsequent evaluation. Several sites may be eliminated after a preliminary risk assessment if there is no current or future threat to humans or the environment. Likewise, much of the data from a baseline risk assessment can be used to support alternate concentration limits or supplemental standards demonstrations, or identify sensitive habitats or receptors that may be of concern in selecting a remedy

Risk assessment in the DOE Assurance Program for Remedial Action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marks, S.; Cross, F.T.; Denham, D.H.; Kennedy, W.E.; Stenner, R.D.

1985-08-01

This document provides information obtained during the performance of risk assessment tasks in support of the Assurance Program for Remedial Action (APRA) sponsored by the Office of Operational Safety of the Department of Energy. We have presented a method for the estimation of projected health effects at properties in the vicinity of uranium mill tailing piles due to transported tailings or emissions from the piles. Because radon and radon daughter exposure is identified as the principal factor contributing to health effects at such properties, the basis for estimating lung cancer risk as a result of such exposure is discussed in detail. Modeling of health risk due to a secondary pathway, ingestion of contaminated, home-grown food products, is also discussed since it is a potentially important additional source of exposure in certain geographic locations. Risk assessment methods used in various mill tailings reports are reviewed. The protocols for radiological surveys conducted in DOE-sponsored remedial action programs are critically reviewed with respect to their relevance to the needs of health risk estimation. The relevance of risk assessment to the APRA program is discussed briefly

Methods and tools to support real time risk-based flood forecasting - a UK pilot application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brown Emma

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flood managers have traditionally used probabilistic models to assess potential flood risk for strategic planning and non-operational applications. Computational restrictions on data volumes and simulation times have meant that information on the risk of flooding has not been available for operational flood forecasting purposes. In practice, however, the operational flood manager has probabilistic questions to answer, which are not completely supported by the outputs of traditional, deterministic flood forecasting systems. In a collaborative approach, HR Wallingford and Deltares have developed methods, tools and techniques to extend existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, including probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the results of the application of these new operational flood risk management tools to a pilot catchment in the UK. It discusses the problems of performing probabilistic flood risk assessment in real time and how these have been addressed in this study. It also describes the challenges of the communication of risk to operational flood managers and to the general public, and how these new methods and tools can provide risk-based supporting evidence to assist with this process.

Information resources used in health risk assessment by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Post, G.B.; Baratta, M.; Wolfson, S.; McGeorge, L. [New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, Trenton (United States)

1990-12-31

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection`s responsibilities related to health-based risk assessment are described, including its research projects and its development of health based compound specific standards and guidance levels. The resources used by the agency to support health risk assessment work are outlined.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

Fuzzy hierarchical model for risk assessment principles, concepts, and practical applications

CERN Document Server

Chan, Hing Kai

2013-01-01

Risk management is often complicated by situational uncertainties and the subjective preferences of decision makers. Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment introduces a fuzzy-based hierarchical approach to solve risk management problems considering both qualitative and quantitative criteria to tackle imprecise information.   This approach is illustrated through number of case studies using examples from the food, fashion and electronics sectors to cover a range of applications including supply chain management, green product design and green initiatives. These practical examples explore how this method can be adapted and fine tuned to fit other industries as well.   Supported by an extensive literature review, Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment  comprehensively introduces a new method for project managers across all industries as well as researchers in risk management.

Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana open bays. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

1996-01-01

The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has a program of research in the environmental aspects of oil and gas extraction. This sampling project will characterize the environmental impacts associated with the discharge of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM), metals and organics in produced water. This report is part of a series of studies of the health and ecological risks from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico, supported by the USDOE. These assessments are being coordinated with the field study, using the collected data to perform human health and ecological risk assessments. These assessments will provide input to regulators in the development of guidelines and permits, and to industry in the development and use of appropriate discharge practices. The initial human health and ecological risk assessments consist of conservative screening analyses meant to identify potentially important contaminants, and to eliminate others from further consideration. More quantitative assessments were done for contaminants identified, in the screening analysis, as being of potential concern. Section 2 gives an overview of human health and ecological risk assessment to help put the analyses presented here in perspective. Section 3 provides the hazard assessment portion of the risk assessment, and identifies the important receptors and pathways of concern. Section 3 also outlines the approach taken to the risk assessments presented in the rest of the report. The remaining sections (4 through 9) present the human health and ecological risk assessments for discharges of produced water to open bays in Louisiana

Optimizing Tailored Communications for Health Risk Assessment: A Randomized Factorial Experiment of the Effects of Expectancy Priming, Autonomy Support, and Exemplification.

Science.gov (United States)

Valle, Carmina G; Queen, Tara L; Martin, Barbara A; Ribisl, Kurt M; Mayer, Deborah K; Tate, Deborah F

2018-03-01

Health risk assessments with tailored feedback plus health education have been shown to be effective for promoting health behavior change. However, there is limited evidence to guide the development and delivery of online automated tailored feedback. The goal of this study was to optimize tailored feedback messages for an online health risk assessment to promote enhanced user engagement, self-efficacy, and behavioral intentions for engaging in healthy behaviors. We examined the effects of three theory-based message factors used in developing tailored feedback messages on levels of engagement, self-efficacy, and behavioral intentions. We conducted a randomized factorial experiment to test three different components of tailored feedback messages: tailored expectancy priming, autonomy support, and use of an exemplar. Individuals (N=1945) were recruited via Amazon Mechanical Turk and randomly assigned to one of eight different experimental conditions within one of four behavioral assessment and feedback modules (tobacco use, physical activity [PA], eating habits, and weight). Participants reported self-efficacy and behavioral intentions pre- and postcompletion of an online health behavior assessment with tailored feedback. Engagement and message perceptions were assessed at follow-up. For the tobacco module, there was a significant main effect of the exemplar factor (P=.04); participants who received exemplar messages (mean 3.31, SE 0.060) rated their self-efficacy to quit tobacco higher than those who did not receive exemplar messages (mean 3.14, SE 0.057). There was a three-way interaction between the effect of message conditions on self-efficacy to quit tobacco (P=.02), such that messages with tailored priming and an exemplar had the greatest impact on self-efficacy to quit tobacco. Across PA, eating habits, and weight modules, there was a three-way interaction among conditions on self-efficacy (P=.048). The highest self-efficacy scores were reported among those who

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Contents of risk assessments to support the retrieval and closure of tanks for the Washington State Department of Ecology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MANN, F.M.

2003-01-01

Before the Integrated Mission Acceleration Plan can be performed, risk assessments of various options must be performed for ORP, DOE Headquarters, and the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This document focuses on the risk assessments for Ecology

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

Science.gov (United States)

Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-07-15

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Professional Growth & Support System Self-Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Education Resource Strategies, 2013

2013-01-01

The "Professional Growth & Support System Self-Assessment" is designed to help school systems evaluate their current Professional Growth & Support strategy. The self-assessment is organized around the "Eight Principles of Strategic Professional Growth & Support." Each section allows school leaders to identify the…

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

HIV-Risk Behaviors and Social Support Among Men and Women Attending Alcohol-Serving Venues in South Africa: Implications for HIV Prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Velloza, Jennifer; Watt, Melissa H; Abler, Laurie; Skinner, Donald; Kalichman, Seth C; Dennis, Alexis C; Sikkema, Kathleen J

2017-11-01

Alcohol use is associated with increased HIV-risk behaviors, including unprotected sex and number of sex partners. Alcohol-serving venues can be places to engage in HIV-related sexual risk behaviors, but are also important sites of social support for patrons, which may mitigate risks. We sought to examine the relationship between alcohol-serving venue attendance, social support, and HIV-related sexual risk behavior, by gender, in South Africa. Adult patrons (n = 496) were recruited from six alcohol-serving venues and completed surveys assessing frequency of venue attendance, venue-based social support, and recent sexual behaviors. Generalized estimating equations tested associations between daily venue attendance, social support, and sexual behaviors, separately by gender. Interaction effects between daily attendance and social support were assessed. Models were adjusted for venue, age, education, and ethnicity. Daily attendance at venues was similar across genders and was associated with HIV-related risk behaviors, but the strength and direction of associations differed by gender. Among women, daily attendance was associated with greater number of partners and higher proportion of unprotected sex. Social support was a significant moderator, with more support decreasing the strength of the relationship between attendance and risk. Among men, daily attendance was associated with a lower proportion of unprotected sex; no interaction effects were found for attendance and social support. Frequent venue attendance is associated with additional HIV-related risks for women, but this risk is mitigated by social support in venues. These results were not seen for men. Successful HIV interventions in alcohol-serving venues should address the gendered context of social support and sexual risk behavior.

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

How TK-TD and population models for aquatic macrophytes could support the risk assessment for plant protection products.

Science.gov (United States)

Hommen, Udo; Schmitt, Walter; Heine, Simon; Brock, Theo Cm; Duquesne, Sabine; Manson, Phil; Meregalli, Giovanna; Ochoa-Acuña, Hugo; van Vliet, Peter; Arts, Gertie

2016-01-01

This case study of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) workshop MODELINK demonstrates the potential use of mechanistic effects models for macrophytes to extrapolate from effects of a plant protection product observed in laboratory tests to effects resulting from dynamic exposure on macrophyte populations in edge-of-field water bodies. A standard European Union (EU) risk assessment for an example herbicide based on macrophyte laboratory tests indicated risks for several exposure scenarios. Three of these scenarios are further analyzed using effect models for 2 aquatic macrophytes, the free-floating standard test species Lemna sp., and the sediment-rooted submerged additional standard test species Myriophyllum spicatum. Both models include a toxicokinetic (TK) part, describing uptake and elimination of the toxicant, a toxicodynamic (TD) part, describing the internal concentration-response function for growth inhibition, and a description of biomass growth as a function of environmental factors to allow simulating seasonal dynamics. The TK-TD models are calibrated and tested using laboratory tests, whereas the growth models were assumed to be fit for purpose based on comparisons of predictions with typical growth patterns observed in the field. For the risk assessment, biomass dynamics are predicted for the control situation and for several exposure levels. Based on specific protection goals for macrophytes, preliminary example decision criteria are suggested for evaluating the model outputs. The models refined the risk indicated by lower tier testing for 2 exposure scenarios, while confirming the risk associated for the third. Uncertainties related to the experimental and the modeling approaches and their application in the risk assessment are discussed. Based on this case study and the assumption that the models prove suitable for risk assessment once fully evaluated, we recommend that 1) ecological scenarios be developed that are also

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

2007-01-01

Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

Novel public health risk assessment process developed to support syndromic surveillance for the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Gillian E; Elliot, Alex J; Ibbotson, Sue; Morbey, Roger; Edeghere, Obaghe; Hawker, Jeremy; Catchpole, Mike; Endericks, Tina; Fisher, Paul; McCloskey, Brian

2017-09-01

Syndromic surveillance aims to provide early warning and real time estimates of the extent of incidents; and reassurance about lack of impact of mass gatherings. We describe a novel public health risk assessment process to ensure those leading the response to the 2012 Olympic Games were alerted to unusual activity that was of potential public health importance, and not inundated with multiple statistical 'alarms'. Statistical alarms were assessed to identify those which needed to result in 'alerts' as reliably as possible. There was no previously developed method for this. We identified factors that increased our concern about an alarm suggesting that an 'alert' should be made. Between 2 July and 12 September 2012, 350 674 signals were analysed resulting in 4118 statistical alarms. Using the risk assessment process, 122 'alerts' were communicated to Olympic incident directors. Use of a novel risk assessment process enabled the interpretation of large number of statistical alarms in a manageable way for the period of a sustained mass gathering. This risk assessment process guided the prioritization and could be readily adapted to other surveillance systems. The process, which is novel to our knowledge, continues as a legacy of the Games. © Crown copyright 2016.

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) Iteration 3.2

Science.gov (United States)

Boyer, Roger L.

2010-01-01

The Shuttle is a very reliable vehicle in comparison with other launch systems. Much of the risk posed by Shuttle operations is related to fundamental aspects of the spacecraft design and the environments in which it operates. It is unlikely that significant design improvements can be implemented to address these risks prior to the end of the Shuttle program. The model will continue to be used to identify possible emerging risk drivers and allow management to make risk-informed decisions on future missions. Potential uses of the SPRA in the future include: - Calculate risk impact of various mission contingencies (e.g. late inspection, crew rescue, etc.). - Assessing the risk impact of various trade studies (e.g. flow control valves). - Support risk analysis on mission specific events, such as in flight anomalies. - Serve as a guiding star and data source for future NASA programs.

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Social Support and Personal Agency in At-Risk Mothers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María José Rodrigo

2011-04-01

Full Text Available This study investigated: a mothers´ use and satisfaction with informal and formal supports in at-risk psychosocial contexts, and b the relationships between satisfaction with help and the mothers´ perception of their role (personal agency. Self-report data about the use and satisfaction with sources of help, and levels of internal control, self-efficacy, couple agreement, role difficulty and motivation for change were obtained from 519 mothers referred by Social Services and 519 non-referred mothers. Results indicated that at-risk mothers relied less upon close informal support and more on formal support than non atrisk mothers. They were also more satisfied with the formal sources of support and had lower levels of personal agency. There were beneficial effects of satisfaction with informal help and school support on several aspects of personal agency for both groups. However, satisfaction with school and social services support had a detrimental effect on couple agreement in the at-risk group. Implications of the results for providing social support to at-risk families are discussed.

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Reaching and Supporting At-Risk Community Based Seniors: Results of a Multi-church Partnership.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Julie L; Morzinski, Jeffrey A

2018-04-26

The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of a nurse-led, church-based educational support group for "at-risk," older African Americans on hospitalization and emergency department use. Study nurses enrolled 81 "at-risk" older adult members of ten churches. Participants completed a trifold pamphlet identifying personal health information and support, and they attended eight monthly educational/support group sessions in their church during the 10-month intervention. Study nurses completed a risk assessment interview with each senior both pre- and post-participation. The study nurse completed post-program assessments with 64 seniors, a 79% retention rate. At the program's conclusion researchers conducted a focus group with the study RNs and used an anonymous written survey to gather participant appraisals of program elements. Neither hospitalization nor emergency department/urgent care usage was significantly different from pre- to post-program. Session attendance was moderate to high and over half of the seniors brought a family member or friend to one or more sessions. The majority of seniors initiated positive health changes (e.g., smoking cessation, weight loss, or diet changes). Participants expressed high satisfaction and expressed satisfaction to perceive that they were supporting other seniors in their community. We conclude that this intervention was successful in engaging and motivating seniors to initiate health behavior change and contributed to a health-supportive church-based community. To demonstrate a statistically significant difference in hospital and ED usage, however, a stronger intervention or a larger sample size is needed.

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

Risk assessments for dating violence in mid to late adolescence and early adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Tapp, James; Moore, Estelle

2016-10-01

The objective of this paper is to review risk instruments that have been used in the assessment of the potential for violence within the dating relationships of young people. A review of the dating violence literature was conducted to identify risk assessment approaches that have been used to predict harmful behaviour within the dating relationships of people aged between 15 and 30 years. Risk assessments were evaluated on recommended quality criteria: predictive validity, accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) and inter-rater reliability. Only five studies describing assessments that focused specifically on dating violence risk factors were selected for review. Three assessments encompassed dating behaviours by victims that have been associated with an increased risk of further victimisation. Drawing on this evidence, we conclude that young people appear to be at greater risk of encountering dating violence if they have experienced violence in earlier attachment relationships; if their skills for coping with conflict and responding to coercion are limited and if the presence of peer influences reinforces offence supportive attitudes. The reliability and validity of existing intimate partner violence risk assessments that conceptually overlap with elements of dating violence risk warrant investigation to inform risk assessment developments in this field and, building on this, possible interventions to minimise future harm. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Use of information resources by the state of Tennessee in risk assessment applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bashor, B.S. [Tennessee Department of Health and Environment, Nashville (United States)

1990-12-31

The major resources used by the Bureau of Environment, and Environmental Epidemiology (EEP) for risk assessment are: the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Health and Environmental Effects Summary Table (HEAST), Agency for Toxic Substances and disease Registry (ATSDR) Toxicological Profiles, databases at the National Library of Medicine (NLM), World Health Organization (WHO) ENvironmental Criteria, and documents that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published on Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) risk assessment activities. The Risk Assessment Review has been helpful in providing information about availability of new documents or information. No systematic method has been made available to us to locate information resources. IRIS User`s Support has been helpful in making appropriate and timely referrals. Most other EPA resources were located by serendipity and persistence. The CERCLA methodology for risk assessments is being used in environmental programs, and at present, one person is responsible for all risk assessment activities in the department, but plans are underway to train one or two people from each program area. 2 figs.

Assessment of human and ecological risks from uranium and gold mining activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, D.; McKee, P.; Garisto, N.

1995-01-01

Forecasting of ecological and human health risk has been widely used in the uranium mining industry to support decisions regarding acceptability of proposed mine developments and mine closure plans. Probabilistic assessment has been less frequently used in other mining sectors where radiological issues are less prominent, but is now beginning to be more broadly applied. Case studies are presented to illustrate probabilistic approaches in opening and closing assessments of uranium and gold mines. Risks to man and biota from operational emissions (radionuclides, arsenic, cyanide) and risk reductions following mine closure are forecast using probabilistic models of chemical fate, transport and exposure. These forecasts permit selection of operational and closure alternatives which produce acceptably low risks

Development of methodological tools for assessing enterprise credit worthiness taking into account off-balance sheet risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N.G. Vygovska

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the improvement of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of enterprises’ legal entities taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks on the definite integral class of a debtor-borrower. The authors substantiate that the non-accounting of off-balance sheet commitments in assessing the borrower’s credit worthiness leads to false managerial decisions on granting a loan and increasing the level of credit risk of the bank. The purpose of the article is to study the questions of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of economic entities and develop directions for improving its analytical support taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks. The object of the research is the analytical support for assessing the credit worthiness of a borrower-legal entity taking into account off-balance-sheet risks. The authors put forward and proved the hypothesis that, acting as the guarantor or principal of another enterprise, the assessment of the borrower's credit worthiness undergoes significant changes. The coefficient analysis of the methodological provision for assessing the borrower's credit rating by the current method number 351 is carried out, as a result of which the influence on the integral index and the debtor class is proved. When determining the reliability class of the borrower, the most affected are solvency ratios (especially for short-term loans and financial sustainability (for long-term loans to the borrower. The current methodology for defining these indicators does not take into account the effect of off-balance sheet risks, which is due to the use of financial reporting data, which does not include data on off-balance sheet instruments. The methodological support of credit-worthiness analysis is proposed, taking into account the impact of off-balance sheet risks on it. The prospects for further research should be formulated in the direction of improving the

Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gran, Bjorn Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J.

2007-01-01

This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development

Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: bjorn.axel.gran@hrp.no; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: rune.fredriksen@hrp.no; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: atoosa.p-j.thunem@hrp.no

2007-11-15

This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Erica J; Turner, Paul; Meinke, Holger; Holbrook, Neil J

2015-01-01

This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites

Integrated Clinical Decision Support Systems Promote Absolute Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: An Important Primary Prevention Measure in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Primary Health Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veronica Matthews

2017-09-01

Full Text Available BackgroundAboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians experience a greater burden of disease compared to non-Indigenous Australians. Around one-fifth of the health disparity is caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD. Despite the importance of absolute cardiovascular risk assessment (CVRA as a screening and early intervention tool, few studies have reported its use within the Australian Indigenous primary health care (PHC sector. This study utilizes data from a large-scale quality improvement program to examine variation in documented CVRA as a primary prevention strategy for individuals without prior CVD across four Australian jurisdictions. We also examine the proportion with elevated risk and follow-up actions recorded.MethodsWe undertook cross-sectional analysis of 2,052 client records from 97 PHC centers to assess CVRA in Indigenous adults aged ≥20 years with no recorded chronic disease diagnosis (2012–2014. Multilevel regression was used to quantify the variation in CVRA attributable to health center and client level factors. The main outcome measure was the proportion of eligible adults who had CVRA recorded. Secondary outcomes were the proportion of clients with elevated risk that had follow-up actions recorded.ResultsApproximately 23% (n = 478 of eligible clients had documented CVRA. Almost all assessments (99% were conducted in the Northern Territory. Within this jurisdiction, there was wide variation between centers in the proportion of clients with documented CVRA (median 38%; range 0–86%. Regression analysis showed health center factors accounted for 48% of the variation. Centers with integrated clinical decision support systems were more likely to document CVRA (OR 21.1; 95% CI 5.4–82.4; p < 0.001. Eleven percent (n = 53 of clients were found with moderate/high CVD risk, of whom almost one-third were under 35 years (n = 16. Documentation of follow-up varied with respect to the targeted risk factor

Decision making support of the management of technogenically contaminated territories basing on risk analysis with use of geographic information technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yatsalo, B.I.; Demin, V.F.

2002-01-01

Overall questions of decision making support of the contaminated territories management on a basis of risk assessment were considered. Characteristics and possibilities of the applied geoinformation system of decision making support PRANA developed for the risk control and rehabilitation of contaminated territories are demonstrated. The PRANA system involves estimations of all fundamental characteristics of risk during analysis of results and contaminated territories management [ru

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilson, Vickie S., E-mail: wilson.vickie@epa.gov [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Keshava, Nagalakshmi [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Hester, Susan [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Euling, Susan Y. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States)

2013-09-15

The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.

Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, Vickie S.; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan; Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh; Thompson, Chad M.; Euling, Susan Y.

2013-01-01

The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment

Probabilistic risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations: robust design and support for decision making under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Oladyshkin, Sergey; Class, Holger; Helmig, Rainer; Nowak, Wolfgang

2010-05-01

leads to a systematic and significant shift of predicted leakage rates towards higher values compared with deterministic simulations, affecting both risk estimates and the design of injection scenarios. This implies that, neglecting uncertainty can be a strong simplification for modeling CO2 injection, and the consequences can be stronger than when neglecting several physical phenomena (e.g. phase transition, convective mixing, capillary forces etc.). The authors would like to thank the German Research Foundation (DFG) for financial support of the project within the Cluster of Excellence in Simulation Technology (EXC 310/1) at the University of Stuttgart. Keywords: polynomial chaos; CO2 storage; multiphase flow; porous media; risk assessment; uncertainty; integrative response surfaces

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

Science.gov (United States)

Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

2013-01-01

The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

2015-01-01

pregnant women referred to two Danish clinics of occupational medicine (Copenhagen and Aarhus) from 1984 to 2010 were compared with the referred women's 1,077 non-referred pregnancy outcomes and with the pregnancy outcomes of 345,467 gainfully employed women from the same geographical areas and time period.......72-1.17). CONCLUSION: The women who are referred for occupational risk assessment at two large occupational university departments are not at an increased risk of preterm birth or of delivering low birth weight children. This may reflect that reproductive hazards in Danish workplaces are limited and....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study...

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Hrdová, Edita

2012-01-01

This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Risk assessment for the transportation of radioactive zeolite liners

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

The risk is estimated for the shipment of radioactive zeolite liners in support of the Zeolite Vitrification Demonstration Program currently underway at Pacific Northwest Laboratory under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy. This program will establish the feasibility of zeolite vitrification as an effective means of immobilizing high-specific-activity wastes. In this risk assessment, it is assumed that two zeolite liners, each loaded around July 1, 1981 to 60,000 Ci, will be shipped by truck around January 1, 1982. However, to provide a measure of conservatism, each liner is assumed to initially hole 70,000 Ci, with the major radioisotopes as follow: 90 Sr = 3000 Ci, 134 Cs = 7000 Ci, 137 Cs = 60,000 Ci. Should shipment take place with essentially no delay after initial loading (regardless of loading date), the shipment loading would be only 2.7% higher than that for the assumed six-month delay. This would negligibly affect the overall risk. As a result of this risk assessment, it is concluded that the transport of the radioactive zeolite liners from TMI to PNL by truck can be conducted at an insignificant level of risk to the public

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Supporting risk-informed decisions during business process execution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Conforti, R.; Leoni, de M.; La Rosa, M.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Salinesi, C.; Norrie, M.C.; Pastor, O.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a technique that supports process participants in making risk-informed decisions, with the aim to reduce the process risks. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process

Response to Ecological Risk Assessment Forum Request for Information on the Benefits of PCB Congener-Specific Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

In August, 2001, the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF) submitted a formal question to the Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) on the benefits of evaluating PCB congeners in environmental samples. This question was developed by ERAF members Bruce Duncan and Cla...

Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

1985-11-01

The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs

Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1988-01-01

A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Triggered lightning risk assessment for reusable launch vehicles at four regional spaceports

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-30

The Aerospace Corporation was tasked by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center to provide technical support to the Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Commercial Space Transportation, in assessing the risks involved with triggered li...

Spatial interactions database development for effective probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liming, J. K.; Dunn, R. F.

2008-01-01

In preparation for a subsequent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) fire risk analysis update, the STP Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) is updating its spatial interactions database (SID). This work is being performed to support updating the spatial interactions analysis (SIA) initially performed for the original South Texas Project Electric Generating Station (STPEGS) probabilistic safely assessment (PSA) and updated in the STPEGS Level 2 PSA and IPE Report. S/A is a large-scope screening analysis performed for nuclear power plant PRA that serves as a prerequisite basis for more detailed location-dependent, hazard-spec analyses in the PRA, such as fire risk analysis, flooding risk analysis, etc. SIA is required to support the 'completeness' argument for the PRA scope. The objectives of the current SID development effort are to update the spatial interactions analysis data, to the greatest degree practical, to be consistent with the following: the as-built plant as of December 31, 2007 the in-effect STPNOC STPEGS Units 1 and 2 PRA the current technology and intent of NUREG/CR-6850 guidance for lire risk analysis database support the requirements for PRA SIA, including fire and flooding risk analysis, established by NRC Regulatory Guide 1.200 and the ASME PRA Standard (ASME RA-S-2002 updated through ASME RA-Sc-2007,) This paper presents the approach and methodology for state-of-the-art SID development and applications, including an overview of the SIA process for nuclear power plant PRA. The paper shows how current relational database technology and existing, conventional station information sources can be employed to collect, process, and analyze spatial interactions data for the plant in an effective and efficient manner to meet the often challenging requirements of industry guidelines and standards such as NUREG/CR-6850, NRC Regulatory Guide 1.200, and ASME RA-S-2002 (updated through ASME RA-Sc 2007). This paper includes tables and figures illustrating how SIA

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, K.C.

1992-01-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

1992-07-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

77 FR 61446 - Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-09

... Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Standard... its Standard Review Plan (SRP), Section 19.0, ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident... assessment (PRA) information and severe accident assessments for new reactors submitted to support design...

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

Inter- and intra- observer reliability of risk assessment of repetitive work without an explicit method.

Science.gov (United States)

Eliasson, Kristina; Palm, Peter; Nyman, Teresia; Forsman, Mikael

2017-07-01

A common way to conduct practical risk assessments is to observe a job and report the observed long term risks for musculoskeletal disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter- and intra-observer reliability of ergonomists' risk assessments without the support of an explicit risk assessment method. Twenty-one experienced ergonomists assessed the risk level (low, moderate, high risk) of eight upper body regions, as well as the global risk of 10 video recorded work tasks. Intra-observer reliability was assessed by having nine of the ergonomists repeat the procedure at least three weeks after the first assessment. The ergonomists made their risk assessment based on his/her experience and knowledge. The statistical parameters of reliability included agreement in %, kappa, linearly weighted kappa, intraclass correlation and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. The average inter-observer agreement of the global risk was 53% and the corresponding weighted kappa (K w ) was 0.32, indicating fair reliability. The intra-observer agreement was 61% and 0.41 (K w ). This study indicates that risk assessments of the upper body, without the use of an explicit observational method, have non-acceptable reliability. It is therefore recommended to use systematic risk assessment methods to a higher degree. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

An approach for risk informed safety culture assessment for Canadian nuclear power stations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.

2010-01-01

One of the most important components of effective safety and risk management for nuclear power stations is a healthy safety culture. DNV has developed an approach for risk informed safety culture assessment that combines two complementary paradigms for safety and risk management: loss prevention - for preventing and intervening in accidents; and critical function management - for achieving safety and performance goals. Combining these two paradigms makes it possible to provide more robust systems for safety management and to support a healthy safety culture. This approach is being applied to safety culture assessment in partnership with a Canadian nuclear utility. (author)

Toxic element mobility assessment and modeling for regional geo-scientific survey to support Risk Assessment in a European Union context

Science.gov (United States)

Abdaal, Ahmed; Jordan, Gyozo; Bartha, Andras; Fugedi, Ubul

2013-04-01

The Mine Waste Directive 2006/21/EC requires the risk-based inventory of all mine waste sites in Europe. The geochemical documentation concerning inert classification and ranking of the mine wastes requires detailed field study and laboratory testing and analyses of waste material to assess the Acid Mine Drainage potential and toxic element mobility. The procedure applied in this study used a multi-level decision support scheme including: 1) expert judgment, 2) data review, 3) representative field sampling and laboratory analysis of formations listed in the Inert Mining Waste List, and 4) requesting available laboratory analysis data from selected operating mines. Based on expert judgment, the listed formations were classified into three categories. A: inert B: probably inert, but has to be checked, C: probably not inert, has to be examined. This paper discusses the heavy metal contamination risk assessment (RA) in leached quarry-mine waste sites in Hungary. In total 34 mine waste sites (including tailing lagoons and heaps of both abandoned mines and active quarries) have been selected for scientific testing using the EU Pre-selection Protocol. Over 93 field samples have been collected from the mine sites including Ore (Andesite and Ryolite), Coal (Lignite, black and brown coals), Peat, Alginite, Bauxite, Clay and Limestone. Laboratory analyses of the total toxic element content (aqua regia extraction), the mobile toxic element content (deionized water leaching) and the analysis of different forms of sulfur (sulfuric acid potential) ) on the base of Hungarian GKM Decree No. 14/2008. (IV. 3) concerning mining waste management. A detailed geochemical study together with spatial analysis and GIS has been performed to derive a geochemically sound contamination RA of the mine waste sites. Key parameters such as heavy metal and sulphur content, in addition to the distance to the nearest surface and ground water bodies, or to sensitive receptors such as settlements and

Understanding the Needs of Young Women Regarding Breast Cancer Risk Assessment and Genetic Testing: Convergence and Divergence among Patient-Counselor Perceptions and the Promise of Peer Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chalanda Evans

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Young women from hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC families face a series of medical decisions regarding their cancer risk management and integrating this information into their life planning. This presents unique medical and psychosocial challenges that exist without comprehensive intervention. To help lay the groundwork for intervention, we conducted a qualitative study among young women from HBOC families (N = 12; Mean age = 22 and cancer genetic counselors (N = 12 to explicate domains most critical to caring for this population. Women and counselors were interviewed by telephone. The predominant interview themes included preventative care planning and risk management, decision making around the pros and cons of cancer risk assessment, medical management, and psychosocial stresses experienced. Young women endorsed psychosocial stress significantly more frequently than did counselors. Both groups noted the short- and long-term decision making challenges and the support and conflict engendered among familial relationships. Our results suggest young women value the support they receive from their families and their genetic counselors, but additional, external supports are needed to facilitate adaptation to HBOC risk. In feedback interviews focused on intervention planning with a subset of these young women (N = 9, they endorsed the predominant interview themes discovered as important intervention content, a structure that would balance discussion of medical information and psychosocial skill-building that could be tailored to the young women’s needs, and delivery by trained peers familiar with HBOC risk.

Risk-based emergency decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koerte, Jens

2003-01-01

In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Assessing the risk of carbon dioxide emissions from blue carbon ecosystems

KAUST Repository

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Atwood, Trisha; Baldock, Jeff; Duarte, Carlos M.; Hickey, Sharyn; Lavery, Paul S.; Masque, Pere; Macreadie, Peter I.; Ricart, Aurora M.; Serrano, Oscar; Steven, Andy

2017-01-01

to the atmosphere in the form of CO. We present a framework to help assess the relative risk of CO emissions from degraded soils, thereby supporting inclusion of soil C into blue carbon projects and establishing a means to prioritize management for their carbon

Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1996-12-01

Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees

2013-04-01

In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Cardiovascular risk assessment: audit findings from a nurse clinic--a quality improvement initiative.

Science.gov (United States)

Waldron, Sarah; Horsburgh, Margaret

2009-09-01

Evidence has shown the effectiveness of risk factor management in reducing mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular disease (CVD). An audit of a nurse CVD risk assessment programme undertaken between November 2005 and December 2008 in a Northland general practice. A retrospective audit of CVD risk assessment with data for the first entry of 621 patients collected exclusively from PREDICT-CVDTM, along with subsequent data collected from 320 of these patients who had a subsequent assessment recorded at an interval ranging from six months to three years (18 month average). Of the eligible population (71%) with an initial CVD risk assessment, 430 (69.2%) had afive-year absolute risk less than 15%, with 84 (13.5%) having a risk greater than 15% and having not had a cardiovascular event. Of the patients with a follow-up CVD risk assessment, 34 showed improvement. Medication prescribing for patients with absolute CVD risk greater than 15% increased from 71% to 86% for anti-platelet medication and for lipid lowering medication from 65% to 72% in the audit period. The recently available 'heart health' trajectory tool will help patients become more aware of risks that are modifiable, together with community support to engage more patients in the nurse CVD prevention programme. Further medication audits to monitor prescribing trends. Patients who showed an improvement in CVD risk had an improvement in one or more modifiable risk factors and became actively involved in making changes to their health.

Assessing Wheat Frost Risk with the Support of GIS: An Approach Coupling a Growing Season Meteorological Index and a Hybrid Fuzzy Neural Network Model

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Yaojie Yue

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Crop frost, one kind of agro-meteorological disaster, often causes significant loss to agriculture. Thus, evaluating the risk of wheat frost aids scientific response to such disasters, which will ultimately promote food security. Therefore, this paper aims to propose an integrated risk assessment model of wheat frost, based on meteorological data and a hybrid fuzzy neural network model, taking China as an example. With the support of a geographic information system (GIS, a comprehensive method was put forward. Firstly, threshold temperatures of wheat frost at three growth stages were proposed, referring to phenology in different wheat growing areas and the meteorological standard of Degree of Crop Frost Damage (QX/T 88-2008. Secondly, a vulnerability curve illustrating the relationship between frost hazard intensity and wheat yield loss was worked out using hybrid fuzzy neural network model. Finally, the wheat frost risk was assessed in China. Results show that our proposed threshold temperatures are more suitable than using 0 °C in revealing the spatial pattern of frost occurrence, and hybrid fuzzy neural network model can further improve the accuracy of the vulnerability curve of wheat subject to frost with limited historical hazard records. Both these advantages ensure the precision of wheat frost risk assessment. In China, frost widely distributes in 85.00% of the total winter wheat planting area, but mainly to the north of 35°N; the southern boundary of wheat frost has moved northward, potentially because of the warming climate. There is a significant trend that suggests high risk areas will enlarge and gradually expand to the south, with the risk levels increasing from a return period of 2 years to 20 years. Among all wheat frost risk levels, the regions with loss rate ranges from 35.00% to 45.00% account for the largest area proportion, ranging from 58.60% to 63.27%. We argue that for wheat and other frost-affected crops, it is

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

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Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Supporting the Support System: How Assessment and Communication Can Help Patients and Their Support Systems.

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Harkey, Jane; Young, Jared; Carter, Jolynne Jo; Demoratz, Michael

The benefits of having a support system, such as social relationships with close friends and family, have been well documented for patients with serious health issues. As scientific evidence has shown, individuals who have the lowest level of involvement in social relationships face a greater mortality risk. Support systems, however, are not infallible. Relationship stress can have a negative impact on people-patient and caregiver alike-behaviorally, psychosocially, and physiologically. The purpose of this article is to encourage case managers who take a patient-centered approach to also consider the existence and extent of the support system, as well as any stresses or tensions that are observable within the support system. Although the case manager is ethically obliged to advocate for the individual receiving case management services, that advocacy can be extended to the support system for the good of all. This discussion applies to numerous case management practices and work settings including (but not limited to) hospital-based case management, home health, geriatrics, catastrophic case management, mental health, palliative care, and end of life/hospice. As part of the assessment phase of the case management process, case managers determine the extent of the patient's support system or social support network such as family and close friends. Although their advocacy is primarily for the patient receiving case management services, case managers also become aware of the needs of the support system members as they face their loved one's serious illness, severe injury, geriatric care demands, or end of life. Case managers can use their communication skills, especially motivational interviewing, with patients and their support systems to identify stresses and issues that can impact the pursuit of health goals. In addition, case managers ensure that individuals and their support systems are kept informed such as about the health condition, stage of disease, plan of

Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

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Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

2015-04-01

The increasing number of geological hazards in Malaysia has often resulted in casualties and extensive devastation with high mitigation cost. Given the destructive capacity and high frequency of disaster, Malaysia has taken a step forward to address the multi-scale landslide risk reduction emphasizing pre-disaster action rather than post-disaster reaction. Slope hazard and risk assessment in a quantitative manner at regional and national scales remains challenging in Malaysia. This paper presents the comprehensive methodology framework and operational needs driven by modern and advanced geospatial technology to address the aforementioned issues in the tropics. The Slope Hazard and Risk Mapping, the first national project in Malaysia utilizing the multi-sensor LIDAR has been critically implemented with the support of multi- and trans-disciplinary partners. The methodological model has been formulated and evaluated given the complexity of risk scenarios in this knowledge driven project. Instability slope problems in the urban, mountainous and tectonic landscape are amongst them, and their spatial information is of crucial for regional landslide assessment. We develop standard procedures with optimal parameterization for susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment in the selected regions. Remarkably, we are aiming at producing an utmost complete landslide inventory in both space and time. With the updated reliable terrain and landscape models, the landslide conditioning factor maps can be accurately derived depending on the landslide types and failure mechanisms which crucial for hazard and risk assessment. We also aim to improve the generation of elements at risk for landslide and promote integrated approaches for a better disaster risk analysis. As a result, a new tool, notably multi-sensor LIDAR technology is a very promising tool for an old geological problem and its derivative data for hazard and risk analysis is an effective preventive measure in Malaysia

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements

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John Twigg

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements.

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Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

2017-02-01

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

Critical infrastructures risk and vulnerability assessment in transportation of dangerous goods transportation by road and rail

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Vamanu, Bogdan I; Katina, Polinpapilinho F

2016-01-01

This book addresses a key issue in today’s society: the safer transport of dangerous goods, taking into account people, the environment and economics. In particular, it offers a potential approach to identifying the issues, developing the models, providing the methods and recommending the tools to address the risks and vulnerabilities involved. We believe this can only be achieved by assessing those risks in a comprehensive, quantifiable and integrated manner. Examining both rail and road transportation, the book is divided into three sections, covering: the mature and accepted (by both academia and practitioners) methodology of risk assessment; the vulnerability assessment – a novel approach proposed as a vital complement to risk; guidance and support to build the tools that make methods and equations to yield: the Decision Support Systems. Throughout the book, the authors do not endeavor to provide THE solution. Instead, the book offers insightful food for thought for students, researchers, practitioner...

Systematic assessment of environmental risk factors for bipolar disorder: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

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Bortolato, Beatrice; Köhler, Cristiano A; Evangelou, Evangelos; León-Caballero, Jordi; Solmi, Marco; Stubbs, Brendon; Belbasis, Lazaros; Pacchiarotti, Isabella; Kessing, Lars V; Berk, Michael; Vieta, Eduard; Carvalho, André F

2017-03-01