Beyond expected utility: rethinking behavioral decision research.

Science.gov (United States)

Frisch, D; Clemen, R T

1994-07-01

Much research in psychology has evaluated the quality of people's decisions by comparisons with subjective expected utility (SEU) theory. This article suggests that typical arguments made for the status of utility theory as normative do not justify its use by psychologists as a standard by which to evaluate decision quality. It is argued that to evaluate decision quality, researchers need to identify those decision processes that tend to lead to desirable outcomes. It is contended that a good decision-making process must be concerned with how (and whether) decision makers evaluate potential consequences of decisions, the extent to which they accurately identify all relevant consequences, and the way in which they make final choices. Research that bears on these issues is reviewed.

Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

OpenAIRE

Han Bleichrodt; José María Abellán-Perpiñan; JoséLuis Pinto; Ildefonso Méndez-Martínez

2005-01-01

This paper explores inconsistencies that occur in utility measurement under risk when expected utility theory is assumed and the contribution that prospect theory and some other generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these inconsistencies. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studied, prospect theory was the most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expe...

Are prescription drug insurance choices consistent with expected utility theory?

Science.gov (United States)

Bundorf, M Kate; Mata, Rui; Schoenbaum, Michael; Bhattacharya, Jay

2013-09-01

To determine the extent to which people make choices inconsistent with expected utility theory when choosing among prescription drug insurance plans and whether tabular or graphical presentation format influences the consistency of their choices. Members of an Internet-enabled panel chose between two Medicare prescription drug plans. The "low variance" plan required higher out-of-pocket payments for the drugs respondents usually took but lower out-of-pocket payments for the drugs they might need if they developed a new health condition than the "high variance" plan. The probability of a change in health varied within subjects and the presentation format (text vs. graphical) and the affective salience of the clinical condition (abstract vs. risk related to specific clinical condition) varied between subjects. Respondents were classified based on whether they consistently chose either the low or high variance plan. Logistic regression models were estimated to examine the relationship between decision outcomes and task characteristics. The majority of respondents consistently chose either the low or high variance plan, consistent with expected utility theory. Half of respondents consistently chose the low variance plan. Respondents were less likely to make discrepant choices when information was presented in graphical format. Many people, although not all, make choices consistent with expected utility theory when they have information on differences among plans in the variance of out-of-pocket spending. Medicare beneficiaries would benefit from information on the extent to which prescription drug plans provide risk protection. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Under stochastic dominance choquet-expected utility and anticipated utility are identical

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.

1990-01-01

The aim of this paper is to convince the reader that Choquet-expected utility, as initiated by Schmeidler (1982) for decision making under uncertainty, when formulated for decision making under risk naturally leads to Yaari (1987)'s anticipated utility. Thus the two generalizations of expected

Evolution of non-expected utility preferences

CERN Document Server

Widekind, Sven von; Fandel, G

2008-01-01

The theory on the evolution of preferences deals with the endogenous formation of preference relations in strategic situations. It is related to the field of evolutionary game theory. In this book we analyze the role and the influence of general, possibly non-expected utility preferences in such an evolutionary setup. In particular, we demonstrate that preferences which diverge from von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility may potentially prove to be successful under evolutionary pressures.

Why environmental and resource economists should care about non-expected utility models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shaw, W. Douglass; Woodward, Richard T. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A and M University (United States)

2008-01-15

Experimental and theoretical analysis has shown that the conventional expected utility (EU) and subjective expected utility (SEU) models, which are linear in probabilities, have serious limitations in certain situations. We argue here that these limitations are often highly relevant to the work that environmental and natural resource economists do. We discuss some of the experimental evidence and alternatives to the SEU. We consider the theory used, the problems studied, and the methods employed by resource economists. Finally, we highlight some recent work that has begun to use some of the alternatives to the EU and SEU frameworks and discuss areas where much future work is needed. (author)

Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem.

OpenAIRE

Matthew Rabin.

2000-01-01

Within the expected-utility framework, the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave: A person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor. This paper provides a theorem showing that expected-utility theory is an utterly implausible explanation for appreciable risk aversion over modest stakes: Within expected-utility theory, for any concave utility function, even very little risk aversion over modest st...

Expected utility with lower probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

1994-01-01

An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

Preferences UnderUncertainty and the Deficiencies of the Expected Utility Model

OpenAIRE

Murat Tasdemir

2007-01-01

In economics, the prevailing framework to explain preferences under uncerta- inty is the Expected Utility theory. Despite its widespread use, the Expected Utility theory is not free from problems. Experimental and empirical works shows that, in real life, the choices of individuals among risky alternatives conflict with the axioms of the Expected Utility theory. This study, in the light of experimental studies, investigates the problems with the Expected Utility theory regarding the individua...

Under stochastic dominance Choquet-expected utility and anticipated utility are identical

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.P. Wakker (Peter)

1990-01-01

textabstractThe aim of this paper is to convince the reader that Choquet-expected utility, as initiated by Schmeidler (1982, 1989) for decision making under uncertainty, when formulated for decision making under risk naturally leads to anticipated utility, as initiated by Quiggin/Yaari. Thus the two

Promoting Physical Activity in Hong Kong Chinese Young People: Factors Influencing Their Subjective Task Values and Expectancy Beliefs in Physical Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Pang, Bonnie

2014-01-01

According to Eccles et al.'s (1983) Expectancy Value Model, the two major constructs that influence young people's activity choice are subjective task value and expectancy beliefs (Eccles et al., 1983). Eccles et al. (1983) conceptually distinguished four dimensions of subjective task value: attainment value, intrinsic value, utility value and…

Defining Trust Using Expected Utility Theory

OpenAIRE

Arai, Kazuhiro

2009-01-01

Trust has been discussed in many social sciences including economics, psychology, and sociology. However, there is no widely accepted definition of trust. Inparticular, there is no definition that can be used for economic analysis. This paper regards trust as expectation and defines it using expected utility theory together with concepts such as betrayal premium. In doing so, it rejects the widely accepted black-and-white view that (un) trustworthy people are always (un)trustworthy. This pape...

Optimal provision of public goods with rank dependent expected utility

OpenAIRE

Eide, Erling

2003-01-01

In this paper the theory of rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU) is substituted for the theory of expected utility (EU) in a model of optimal provision of public goods. The substitution generalizes the Samuelson rule, previously modified to include deadweight loss and tax evasion loss.

Is expected utility theory normative for medical decision making?

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, B J

1996-01-01

Expected utility theory is felt by its proponents to be a normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. The theory starts with some simple axioms that are held to be rules that any rational person would follow. It can be shown that if one adheres to these axioms, a numerical quantity, generally referred to as utility, can be assigned to each possible outcome, with the preferred course of action being that which has the highest expected utility. One of these axioms, the independence principle, is controversial, and is frequently violated in experimental situations. Proponents of the theory hold that these violations are irrational. The independence principle is simply an axiom dictating consistency among preferences, in that it dictates that a rational agent should hold a specified preference given another stated preference. When applied to preferences between lotteries, the independence principle can be demonstrated to be a rule that is followed only when preferences are formed in a particular way. The logic of expected utility theory is that this demonstration proves that preferences should be formed in this way. An alternative interpretation is that this demonstrates that the independence principle is not a valid general rule of consistency, but in particular, is a rule that must be followed if one is to consistently apply the decision rule "choose the lottery that has the highest expected utility." This decision rule must be justified on its own terms as a valid rule of rationality by demonstration that violation would lead to decisions that conflict with the decision maker's goals. This rule does not appear to be suitable for medical decisions because often these are one-time decisions in which expectation, a long-run property of a random variable, would not seem to be applicable. This is particularly true for those decisions involving a non-trivial risk of death.

Risk measures on networks and expected utility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

2016-01-01

In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

Do violations of the axioms of expected utility theory threaten decision analysis?

Science.gov (United States)

Nease, R F

1996-01-01

Research demonstrates that people violate the independence principle of expected utility theory, raising the question of whether expected utility theory is normative for medical decision making. The author provides three arguments that violations of the independence principle are less problematic than they might first appear. First, the independence principle follows from other more fundamental axioms whose appeal may be more readily apparent than that of the independence principle. Second, the axioms need not be descriptive to be normative, and they need not be attractive to all decision makers for expected utility theory to be useful for some. Finally, by providing a metaphor of decision analysis as a conversation between the actual decision maker and a model decision maker, the author argues that expected utility theory need not be purely normative for decision analysis to be useful. In short, violations of the independence principle do not necessarily represent direct violations of the axioms of expected utility theory; behavioral violations of the axioms of expected utility theory do not necessarily imply that decision analysis is not normative; and full normativeness is not necessary for decision analysis to generate valuable insights.

Expected utility and catastrophic risk in a stochastic economy-climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ikefuji, M. [Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka (Japan); Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

2010-11-15

In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected utility with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typically model economic catastrophes by probability distributions with heavy tails. Unfortunately, the expected utility framework is fragile with respect to heavy-tailed distributional assumptions. We specify a stochastic economy-climate model with power utility and explicitly demonstrate this fragility. We derive necessary and sufficient compatibility conditions on the utility function to avoid fragility and solve our stochastic economy-climate model for two examples of such compatible utility functions. We further develop and implement a procedure to learn the input parameters of our model and show that the model thus specified produces quite robust optimal policies. The numerical results indicate that higher levels of uncertainty (heavier tails) lead to less abatement and consumption, and to more investment, but this effect is not unlimited.

Beyond Expected Utility in the Economics of Health and Longevity

OpenAIRE

Cordoba, Juan Carlos; Ripoll, Marla

2013-01-01

We document various limitations of the expected utility model for the study of health and longevity. The model assumes individuals are indifferent between early and late resolution of uncertainty. This assumption gives rise to predictions regarding the economic value of life that are inconsistent with relevant evidence. For example, poor individuals would price life below the present value of foregone income or even negatively. We show that a non-expected utility model disentangling intertemp...

Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety

Science.gov (United States)

Howlett, Jonathon R.; Paulus, Martin P.

2017-01-01

Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate

Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Howlett, Jonathon R; Paulus, Martin P

2017-01-01

Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate

Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathon R. Howlett

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not. We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points. Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve, while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway

Stock Selection for Portfolios Using Expected Utility-Entropy Decision Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiping Yang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Yang and Qiu proposed and then recently improved an expected utility-entropy (EU-E measure of risk and decision model. When segregation holds, Luce et al. derived an expected utility term, plus a constant multiplies the Shannon entropy as the representation of risky choices, further demonstrating the reasonability of the EU-E decision model. In this paper, we apply the EU-E decision model to selecting the set of stocks to be included in the portfolios. We first select 7 and 10 stocks from the 30 component stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and then derive and compare the efficient portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The conclusions imply that efficient portfolios composed of 7(10 stocks selected using the EU-E model with intermediate intervals of the tradeoff coefficients are more efficient than that composed of the sets of stocks selected using the expected utility model. Furthermore, the efficient portfolio of 7(10 stocks selected by the EU-E decision model have almost the same efficient frontier as that of the sample of all stocks. This suggests the necessity of incorporating both the expected utility and Shannon entropy together when taking risky decisions, further demonstrating the importance of Shannon entropy as the measure of uncertainty, as well as the applicability of the EU-E model as a decision-making model.

Nash was a first to axiomatize expected utility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H. Bleichrodt (Han); C. Li (Chen); I. Moscati (Ivan); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

2016-01-01

textabstractNash is famous for many inventions, but it is less known that he, simultaneously with Marschak, also was the first to axiomatize expected utility for risk. In particular, these authors were the first to state the independence condition, a condition that should have been but was not

Power Dependence in Individual Bargaining: The Expected Utility of Influence.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawler, Edward J.; Bacharach, Samuel B.

1979-01-01

This study uses power-dependence theory as a framework for examining whether and how parties use information on each other's dependence to estimate the utility of an influence attempt. The effect of dependence in expected utilities is investigated (by role playing) in bargaining between employer and employee for a pay raise. (MF)

Factors Associated With Subjective Life Expectancy: Comparison With Actuarial Life Expectancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaekyoung Bae

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives Subjective life expectancy (SLE has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE in Korea. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Korea was used to evaluate differences between SLE and actuarial LE. Age-adjusted least-squares means, correlations, and regression analyses were used to test the relationship of SLE with four categories of predictors: demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Results Among the 1000 participants, women (mean SLE, 83.43 years; 95% confidence interval, 82.41 to 84.46 years; 48% of the total sample had an expected LE 1.59 years longer than that of men. The socioeconomic factors of household income and housing arrangements were related to SLE. Among the health behaviors, smoking status, alcohol status, and physical activity were associated with SLE. Among the psychosocial factors, stress, self-rated health, and social connectedness were related to SLE. SLE had a positive correlation with actuarial estimates (r=0.61, p<0.001. Gender, household income, history of smoking, and distress were related to the presence of a gap between SLE and actuarial LE. Conclusions Demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors showed significant associations with SLE, in the expected directions. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for these results.

Deriving the expected utility of a predictive model when the utilities are uncertain.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Gregory F; Visweswaran, Shyam

2005-01-01

Predictive models are often constructed from clinical databases with the goal of eventually helping make better clinical decisions. Evaluating models using decision theory is therefore natural. When constructing a model using statistical and machine learning methods, however, we are often uncertain about precisely how the model will be used. Thus, decision-independent measures of classification performance, such as the area under an ROC curve, are popular. As a complementary method of evaluation, we investigate techniques for deriving the expected utility of a model under uncertainty about the model's utilities. We demonstrate an example of the application of this approach to the evaluation of two models that diagnose coronary artery disease.

Multiattribute utility theory without expected utility foundations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Miyamoto, J.

1996-01-01

Methods for determining the form of utilities are needed for the implementation of utility theory in specific decisions. An important step forward was achieved when utility theorists characterized useful parametric families of utilities, and simplifying decompositions of multiattribute utilities.

Multiattribute Utility Theory without Expected Utility Foundations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stiggelbout, A.M.; Wakker, P.P.

1995-01-01

Methods for determining the form of utilities are needed for the implementation of utility theory in specific decisions. An important step forward was achieved when utility theorists characterized useful parametric families of utilities, and simplifying decompositions of multiattribute utilities.

Expected Utility Illustrated: A Graphical Analysis of Gambles with More than Two Possible Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Frederick H.

2010-01-01

The author presents a simple geometric method to graphically illustrate the expected utility from a gamble with more than two possible outcomes. This geometric result gives economics students a simple visual aid for studying expected utility theory and enables them to analyze a richer set of decision problems under uncertainty compared to what…

Multiattribute Utility Theory without Expected Utility Foundations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Miyamoto (John); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

1996-01-01

textabstractMethods for determining the form of utilities are needed for the implementation of utility theory in specific decisions. An important step forward was achieved when utility theorists characterized useful parametric families of utilities and simplifying decompositions of multiattribute

Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: a comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Acremont, Mathieu; Bossaerts, Peter

2008-12-01

When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely cumbersome when it comes to learning. Finance academics and professionals, however, prefer to value risky prospects in terms of a trade-off between expected reward and risk, where the latter is usually measured in terms of reward variance. This mean-variance approach is fast and simple and greatly facilitates learning, but it impedes assigning values to new gambles on the basis of those of known ones. To date, it is unclear whether the human brain computes values in accordance with expected utility theory or with mean-variance analysis. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical arguments that favor one or the other theory. We also propose a new experimental paradigm that could determine whether the human brain follows the expected utility or the mean-variance approach. Behavioral results of implementation of the paradigm are discussed.

A comparison of probability of ruin and expected discounted utility ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Individuals in defined-contribution retirement funds currently have a number of options as to how to finance their post-retirement spending. The paper considers the ranking of selected annuitisation strategies by the probability of ruin and by expected discounted utility under different scenarios. 'Ruin' is defined as occurring ...

Subjective residual life expectancy in health self-regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ziegelmann, Jochen P; Lippke, Sonia; Schwarzer, Ralf

2006-07-01

Applying socioemotional selectivity theory to the domain of health, we examined the interplay of social-cognitive predictors of physical exercise in two groups of people who perceived their remaining lifetime as either expansive or limited (based on subjective longevity ratings). Individuals (N = 370) who were prescribed physical exercise were assessed at discharge from orthopedic rehabilitation as well as 6 and 12 months later. Multigroup structural equation modeling showed differences in latent means, interrelations of predictors, and amount of explained variance. Individuals who perceived their time as limited reported a less favorable profile on social-cognitive variables and less exercise goal attainment. We give first insights on how health self-regulation differs in these groups, and we discuss avenues for intervention based on socioemotional selectivity theory. In contrast to chronological age, subjective life expectancy can be targeted by intervention.

Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: A comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches

OpenAIRE

d'Acremont, M.; Bossaerts, Peter

2008-01-01

When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely ...

Expected utility violations evolve under status-based selection mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickson, Eric S

2008-10-07

The expected utility theory of decision making under uncertainty, a cornerstone of modern economics, assumes that humans linearly weight "utilities" for different possible outcomes by the probabilities with which these outcomes occur. Despite the theory's intuitive appeal, both from normative and from evolutionary perspectives, many experiments demonstrate systematic, though poorly understood, patterns of deviation from EU predictions. This paper offers a novel theoretical account of such patterns of deviation by demonstrating that EU violations can emerge from evolutionary selection when individual "status" affects inclusive fitness. In humans, battles for resources and social standing involve high-stakes decision making, and assortative mating ensures that status matters for fitness outcomes. The paper therefore proposes grounding the study of decision making under uncertainty in an evolutionary game-theoretic framework.

The Temporal Derivative of Expected Utility: A Neural Mechanism for Dynamic Decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xian; Hirsch, Joy

2012-01-01

Real world tasks involving moving targets, such as driving a vehicle, are performed based on continuous decisions thought to depend upon the temporal derivative of the expected utility (∂V/∂t), where the expected utility (V) is the effective value of a future reward. However, those neural mechanisms that underlie dynamic decision-making are not well understood. This study investigates human neural correlates of both V and ∂V/∂t using fMRI and a novel experimental paradigm based on a pursuit-evasion game optimized to isolate components of dynamic decision processes. Our behavioral data show that players of the pursuit-evasion game adopt an exponential discounting function, supporting the expected utility theory. The continuous functions of V and ∂V/∂t were derived from the behavioral data and applied as regressors in fMRI analysis, enabling temporal resolution that exceeded the sampling rate of image acquisition, hyper-temporal resolution, by taking advantage of numerous trials that provide rich and independent manipulation of those variables. V and ∂V/∂t were each associated with distinct neural activity. Specifically, ∂V/∂t was associated with anterior and posterior cingulate cortices, superior parietal lobule, and ventral pallidum, whereas V was primarily associated with supplementary motor, pre and post central gyri, cerebellum, and thalamus. The association between the ∂V/∂t and brain regions previously related to decision-making is consistent with the primary role of the temporal derivative of expected utility in dynamic decision-making. PMID:22963852

The temporal derivative of expected utility: a neural mechanism for dynamic decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xian; Hirsch, Joy

2013-01-15

Real world tasks involving moving targets, such as driving a vehicle, are performed based on continuous decisions thought to depend upon the temporal derivative of the expected utility (∂V/∂t), where the expected utility (V) is the effective value of a future reward. However, the neural mechanisms that underlie dynamic decision-making are not well understood. This study investigates human neural correlates of both V and ∂V/∂t using fMRI and a novel experimental paradigm based on a pursuit-evasion game optimized to isolate components of dynamic decision processes. Our behavioral data show that players of the pursuit-evasion game adopt an exponential discounting function, supporting the expected utility theory. The continuous functions of V and ∂V/∂t were derived from the behavioral data and applied as regressors in fMRI analysis, enabling temporal resolution that exceeded the sampling rate of image acquisition, hyper-temporal resolution, by taking advantage of numerous trials that provide rich and independent manipulation of those variables. V and ∂V/∂t were each associated with distinct neural activity. Specifically, ∂V/∂t was associated with anterior and posterior cingulate cortices, superior parietal lobule, and ventral pallidum, whereas V was primarily associated with supplementary motor, pre and post central gyri, cerebellum, and thalamus. The association between the ∂V/∂t and brain regions previously related to decision-making is consistent with the primary role of the temporal derivative of expected utility in dynamic decision-making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Loss Modification Incentives for Insurers Under Expected Utility and Loss Aversion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Zhou, Liting

We investigate whether a profit-maximizing insurer with the opportunity to modify the loss probability will engage in loss prevention or instead spend effort to increase the loss probability. First we study this question within a traditional expected utility framework; then we apply Koszegi and

Children's utilization of emotion expectancies in moral decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hertz, Steven G; Krettenauer, Tobias

2014-09-01

This study investigated the relevance of emotion expectancies for children's moral decision-making. The sample included 131 participants from three different grade levels (M = 8.39 years, SD = 2.45, range 4.58-12.42). Participants were presented a set of scenarios that described various emotional outcomes of (im)moral actions and asked to decide what they would do if they were in the protagonists' shoes. Overall, it was found that the anticipation of moral emotions predicted an increased likelihood of moral choices in antisocial and prosocial contexts. In younger children, anticipated moral emotions predicted moral choice for prosocial actions, but not for antisocial actions. Older children showed evidence for the utilization of anticipated emotions in both prosocial and antisocial behaviours. Moreover, for older children, the decision to act prosocially was less likely in the presence of non-moral emotions. Findings suggest that the impact of emotion expectancies on children's moral decision-making increases with age. Contrary to happy victimizer research, the study does not support the notion that young children use moral emotion expectancies for moral decision-making in the context of antisocial actions. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

A simple test of expected utility theory using professional traders.

Science.gov (United States)

List, John A; Haigh, Michael S

2005-01-18

We compare behavior across students and professional traders from the Chicago Board of Trade in a classic Allais paradox experiment. Our experiment tests whether independence, a necessary condition in expected utility theory, is systematically violated. We find that both students and professionals exhibit some behavior consistent with the Allais paradox, but the data pattern does suggest that the trader population falls prey to the Allais paradox less frequently than the student population.

Utility Expectations for Human Performance and Safety Culture in the Supplier Community

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clewett, L. K.

2016-01-01

Canadian NPPs, like many others around the world, make use of suppliers for the design and execution of major projects, and to support on-going inspection and maintenance activities. The work performed by suppliers today represents a significant portion of the work performed at utility NPPs, and, at times, can even exceed the work performed by utility staff. It is imperative for both the utility and the supplier work forces to work in collaboration to ensure that the probability of consequential errors impacting plant safety or contributing to broader enterprise risk is kept very low. An important element for keeping the risk low is for utilities to work with their suppliers to develop a high degree of confidence that the supplier workforce is performing to the same standards of human performance and safety culture as its own staff. This paper will provide a senior utility executive’s expectations and perspective on achieving excellence in supplier human performance and safety culture. (author)

A Unifying Approach to Axiomatic Non-Expected Utility Theories: Correction and Comment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S.H. Chew; L.G. Epstein (Larry); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

1993-01-01

textabstractChew and Epstein attempted to provide a unifying axiomatic framework for a number of generalizations of expected utility theory. Wakker pointed out that Theorem A, on which the central unifying proposition is based, is false. In this note, we apply Segal′s result to prove that Theorem 2

A unifying approach to axiomatic non-expected utility theories: correction and comment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hong, C.S.; Epstein, L.G.; Wakker, P.

1993-01-01

Chew and Epstein attempted to provide a unifying axiomatic framework for a number of generalizations of expected utility theory. Wakker pointed out that Theorem A, on which the central unifying proposition is based, is false. In this note, we apply Segal's result to prove that Theorem 2 is

Altered brain responses in subjects with irritable bowel syndrome during cued and uncued pain expectation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, J-Y; Naliboff, B; Labus, J S; Gupta, A; Kilpatrick, L A; Ashe-McNalley, C; Stains, J; Heendeniya, N; Smith, S R; Tillisch, K; Mayer, E A

2016-01-01

A majority of the subjects with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) show increased behavioral and brain responses to expected and delivered aversive visceral stimuli during controlled rectal balloon distension, and during palpation of the sigmoid colon. We aimed to determine if altered brain responses to cued and uncued pain expectation are also seen in the context of a noxious somatic pain stimulus applied to the same dermatome as the sigmoid colon. A task-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging technique was used to investigate the brain activity of 37 healthy controls (18 females) and 37 IBS subjects (21 females) during: (i) a cued expectation of an electric shock to the abdomen vs a cued safe condition; and (ii) an uncued cross-hair condition in which the threat is primarily based on context vs a cued safe condition. Regions within the salience, attention, default mode, and emotional arousal networks were more activated by the cued abdominal threat condition and the uncued condition than in the cued safe condition. During the uncued condition contrasted to the cued safe condition, IBS subjects (compared to healthy control subjects) showed greater brain activations in the affective (amygdala, anterior insula) and attentional (middle frontal gyrus) regions, and in the thalamus and precuneus. These disease-related differences were primarily seen in female subjects. The observed greater engagement of cognitive and emotional brain networks in IBS subjects during contextual threat may reflect the propensity of IBS subjects to overestimate the likelihood and severity of future abdominal pain. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Expected Power-Utility Maximization Under Incomplete Information and with Cox-Process Observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujimoto, Kazufumi; Nagai, Hideo; Runggaldier, Wolfgang J.

2013-01-01

We consider the problem of maximization of expected terminal power utility (risk sensitive criterion). The underlying market model is a regime-switching diffusion model where the regime is determined by an unobservable factor process forming a finite state Markov process. The main novelty is due to the fact that prices are observed and the portfolio is rebalanced only at random times corresponding to a Cox process where the intensity is driven by the unobserved Markovian factor process as well. This leads to a more realistic modeling for many practical situations, like in markets with liquidity restrictions; on the other hand it considerably complicates the problem to the point that traditional methodologies cannot be directly applied. The approach presented here is specific to the power-utility. For log-utilities a different approach is presented in Fujimoto et al. (Preprint, 2012).

Expected Power-Utility Maximization Under Incomplete Information and with Cox-Process Observations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fujimoto, Kazufumi, E-mail: m_fuji@kvj.biglobe.ne.jp [Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd., Corporate Risk Management Division (Japan); Nagai, Hideo, E-mail: nagai@sigmath.es.osaka-u.ac.jp [Osaka University, Division of Mathematical Science for Social Systems, Graduate School of Engineering Science (Japan); Runggaldier, Wolfgang J., E-mail: runggal@math.unipd.it [Universita di Padova, Dipartimento di Matematica Pura ed Applicata (Italy)

2013-02-15

We consider the problem of maximization of expected terminal power utility (risk sensitive criterion). The underlying market model is a regime-switching diffusion model where the regime is determined by an unobservable factor process forming a finite state Markov process. The main novelty is due to the fact that prices are observed and the portfolio is rebalanced only at random times corresponding to a Cox process where the intensity is driven by the unobserved Markovian factor process as well. This leads to a more realistic modeling for many practical situations, like in markets with liquidity restrictions; on the other hand it considerably complicates the problem to the point that traditional methodologies cannot be directly applied. The approach presented here is specific to the power-utility. For log-utilities a different approach is presented in Fujimoto et al. (Preprint, 2012).

Question order sensitivity of subjective well-being measures: focus on life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy in survey instruments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sunghee; McClain, Colleen; Webster, Noah; Han, Saram

2016-10-01

This study examines the effect of question context created by order in questionnaires on three subjective well-being measures: life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy. We conducted two Web survey experiments. The first experiment (n = 648) altered the order of life satisfaction and self-rated health: (1) life satisfaction asked immediately after self-rated health; (2) self-rated health immediately after life satisfaction; and (3) two items placed apart. We examined their correlation coefficient by experimental condition and further examined its interaction with objective health. The second experiment (n = 479) asked life expectancy before and after parental mortality questions. Responses to life expectancy were compared by order using ANOVA, and we examined interaction with parental mortality status using ANCOVA. Additionally, response time and probes were examined. Correlation coefficients between self-rated health and life satisfaction differed significantly by order: 0.313 (life satisfaction first), 0.508 (apart), and 0.643 (self-rated health first). Differences were larger among respondents with chronic conditions. Response times were the shortest when self-rated health was asked first. When life expectancy asked after parental mortality questions, respondents reported considering parents more for answering life expectancy; and respondents with deceased parents reported significantly lower expectancy, but not those whose parents were alive. Question context effects exist. Findings suggest placing life satisfaction and self-rated health apart to avoid artificial attenuation or inflation in their association. Asking about parental mortality prior to life expectancy appears advantageous as this leads respondents to consider parental longevity more, an important factor for true longevity.

Expected Utility Based Decision Making under Z-Information and Its Application.

Science.gov (United States)

Aliev, Rashad R; Mraiziq, Derar Atallah Talal; Huseynov, Oleg H

2015-01-01

Real-world decision relevant information is often partially reliable. The reasons are partial reliability of the source of information, misperceptions, psychological biases, incompetence, and so forth. Z-numbers based formalization of information (Z-information) represents a natural language (NL) based value of a variable of interest in line with the related NL based reliability. What is important is that Z-information not only is the most general representation of real-world imperfect information but also has the highest descriptive power from human perception point of view as compared to fuzzy number. In this study, we present an approach to decision making under Z-information based on direct computation over Z-numbers. This approach utilizes expected utility paradigm and is applied to a benchmark decision problem in the field of economics.

From outcomes to acts : a non-standard axiomatization of the expected utility principle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peterson, M.B.

2004-01-01

This paper presents an axiomatization of the principle of maximizing expected utility that does not rely on the independence axiom or sure-thing principle. Perhaps more importantly the new axiomatization is based on an ex ante approach, instead of the standard ex post approach. An ex post approach

Explanation of asymmetric dynamics of human water consumption in arid regions: prospect theory versus expected utility theory

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, F.; Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Based on socioeconomic and hydrological data in three arid inland basins and error analysis, the dynamics of human water consumption (HWC) are analyzed to be asymmetric, i.e., HWC increase rapidly in wet periods while maintain or decrease slightly in dry periods. Besides the qualitative analysis that in wet periods great water availability inspires HWC to grow fast but the now expanded economy is managed to sustain by over-exploitation in dry periods, two quantitative models are established and tested, based on expected utility theory (EUT) and prospect theory (PT) respectively. EUT states that humans make decisions based on the total expected utility, namely the sum of utility function multiplied by probability of each result, while PT states that the utility function is defined over gains and losses separately, and probability should be replaced by probability weighting function.

Expected Utility and Entropy-Based Decision-Making Model for Large Consumers in the Smart Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bingtuan Gao

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In the smart grid, large consumers can procure electricity energy from various power sources to meet their load demands. To maximize its profit, each large consumer needs to decide their energy procurement strategy under risks such as price fluctuations from the spot market and power quality issues. In this paper, an electric energy procurement decision-making model is studied for large consumers who can obtain their electric energy from the spot market, generation companies under bilateral contracts, the options market and self-production facilities in the smart grid. Considering the effect of unqualified electric energy, the profit model of large consumers is formulated. In order to measure the risks from the price fluctuations and power quality, the expected utility and entropy is employed. Consequently, the expected utility and entropy decision-making model is presented, which helps large consumers to minimize their expected profit of electricity procurement while properly limiting the volatility of this cost. Finally, a case study verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.

Life expectancy impacts due to heating energy utilization in China: Distribution, relations, and policy implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shaobin; Luo, Kunli

2018-01-01

The relation between life expectancy and energy utilization is of particular concern. Different viewpoints concerned the health impacts of heating policy in China. However, it is still obscure that what kind of heating energy or what pattern of heating methods is the most related with the difference of life expectancies in China. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively investigate the spatial relations between life expectancy at birth (LEB) and different heating energy utilization in China by using spatial autocorrelation models including global spatial autocorrelation, local spatial autocorrelation and hot spot analysis. The results showed that: (1) Most of heating energy exhibit a distinct north-south difference, such as central heating supply, stalks and domestic coal. Whereas spatial distribution of domestic natural gas and electricity exhibited west-east differences. (2) Consumption of central heating, stalks and domestic coal show obvious spatial dependence. Whereas firewood, natural gas and electricity did not show significant spatial autocorrelation. It exhibited an extinct south-north difference of heat supply, stalks and domestic coal which were identified to show significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (3) Central heating, residential boilers and natural gas did not show any significant correlations with LEB. While, the utilization of domestic coal and biomass showed significant negative correlations with LEB, and household electricity shows positive correlations. The utilization of domestic coal in China showed a negative effect on LEB, rather than central heating. To improve the solid fuel stoves and control consumption of domestic coal consumption and other low quality solid fuel is imperative to improve the public health level in China in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On how access to an insurance market affects investments in safety measures, based on the expected utility theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Eirik; Asche, Frank

2011-01-01

This paper focuses on how access to an insurance market should influence investments in safety measures in accordance with the ruling paradigm for decision-making under uncertainty-the expected utility theory. We show that access to an insurance market in most situations will influence investments in safety measures. For an expected utility maximizer, an overinvestment in safety measures is likely if access to an insurance market is ignored, while an underinvestment in safety measures is likely if insurance is purchased without paying attention to the possibility for reducing the probability and/or consequences of an accidental event by safety measures.

The Influence of Subjective Life Expectancy on Retirement Transition and Planning: A Longitudinal Study

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, Barbara; Hesketh, Beryl; Loh, Vanessa

2012-01-01

This study examines the construct of subjective life expectancy (SLE), or the estimation of one's probable age of death. Drawing on the tenets of socioemotional selectivity theory (Carstensen, Isaacowitz, & Charles, 1999), we propose that SLE provides individuals with their own unique mental model of remaining time that is likely to affect their…

Expectation versus Reality: The Impact of Utility on Emotional Outcomes after Returning Individualized Genetic Research Results in Pediatric Rare Disease Research, a Qualitative Interview Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cacioppo, Cara N; Chandler, Ariel E; Towne, Meghan C; Beggs, Alan H; Holm, Ingrid A

2016-01-01

Much information on parental perspectives on the return of individual research results (IRR) in pediatric genomic research is based on hypothetical rather than actual IRR. Our aim was to understand how the expected utility to parents who received IRR on their child from a genetic research study compared to the actual utility of the IRR received. We conducted individual telephone interviews with parents who received IRR on their child through participation in the Manton Center for Orphan Disease Research Gene Discovery Core (GDC) at Boston Children's Hospital (BCH). Five themes emerged around the utility that parents expected and actually received from IRR: predictability, management, family planning, finding answers, and helping science and/or families. Parents expressing negative or mixed emotions after IRR return were those who did not receive the utility they expected from the IRR. Conversely, parents who expressed positive emotions were those who received as much or greater utility than expected. Discrepancies between expected and actual utility of IRR affect the experiences of parents and families enrolled in genetic research studies. An informed consent process that fosters realistic expectations between researchers and participants may help to minimize any negative impact on parents and families.

Utility procurement policies in the USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lurf, G.; Nikazmerad, N.M.

1983-01-01

The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; market history (historical uranium demand and production in the USA); recent long-term contract activity (expected US reactor demand and uranium production; expected US reactor demand and contracted uranium supplies); utility procurement attitudes; impact of inventories on procurement; current regulatory environment (spot-market price vs average long-term contract price); embargo and imports; conclusion. (U.K.)

A quantitative approach to choose among multiple mutually exclusive decisions: comparative expected utility theory

OpenAIRE

Zhu, Pengyu

2018-01-01

Mutually exclusive decisions have been studied for decades. Many well-known decision theories have been defined to help people either to make rational decisions or to interpret people's behaviors, such as expected utility theory, regret theory, prospect theory, and so on. The paper argues that none of these decision theories are designed to provide practical, normative and quantitative approaches for multiple mutually exclusive decisions. Different decision-makers should naturally make differ...

The Combined Effects of Alcohol, Caffeine and Expectancies on Subjective Experience, Impulsivity and Risk-Taking

Science.gov (United States)

Heinz, Adrienne J.; de Wit, Harriet; Lilje, Todd C.; Kassel, Jon D.

2013-01-01

Caffeinated alcoholic beverage (CAB) consumption is a rapidly growing phenomenon among young adults and is associated with a variety of health-risk behaviors. The current study examined whether either caffeinated alcohol or the expectation of receiving caffeinated alcohol altered affective, cognitive and behavioral outcomes hypothesized to contribute to risk behavior. Young adult social drinkers (N=146) participated in a single session where they received alcohol (peak Breath Alcohol Content = .088 g/dL, SD = .019; equivalent to about 4 standard drinks) and were randomly assigned to one of four further conditions 1) no caffeine, no caffeine expectancy, 2) caffeine and caffeine expectancy, 3) no caffeine but caffeine expectancy, 4) caffeine but no caffeine expectancy. Participants’ habitual CAB consumption was positively correlated with measures of impulsivity and risky behavior, independently of study drugs. Administration of caffeine (mean dose = 220 mg, SD = 38; equivalent to about 2.75 Red Bulls) in the study reduced subjective ratings of intoxication and reversed the decrease in desire to continue drinking, regardless of expectancy. Caffeine also reduced the effect of alcohol on inhibitory reaction time (faster incorrect responses). Participants not expecting caffeine were less attentive after alcohol, whereas participants expecting caffeine were not, regardless of caffeine administration. Alcohol decreased response accuracy in all participants except those who both expected and received caffeine. Findings suggest that CABs may elevate risk for continued drinking by reducing perceived intoxication, and by maintaining the desire to continue drinking. Simply expecting to consume caffeine may reduce the effects of alcohol on inattention, and either expecting or consuming caffeine may protect against other alcohol-related performance decrements. Caffeine, when combined with alcohol, has both beneficial and detrimental effects on mechanisms known to contribute to

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

Science.gov (United States)

HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

2011-01-01

SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudomiet, Péter; Kézdi, Gábor; Willis, Robert J

2011-01-01

This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

What a utility expects from its supplier organizations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winitsky, H.B.

1986-01-01

The suppliers of its goods and services are a most important resource of the utility industry. The unique and mutually beneficial technical relationship between utilities and their suppliers has been and continues to be a major contributor to the power industry's viability, vitality and growth, and thus to America's standard of living. The commercial and legal aspects of this relationship have been changing. This paper addresses the principles of: reasonably allocating and responsibility and accountability for ''the products'' provided to utilities including nuclear utilities; equitable risk-sharing as a prime requirement of utility procurement decision making; and the present and future relationship of the unique supplier/utility partnership as influenced and shaped by these requirements

Learning and dynamic choices under uncertainty: from weighted regret and rejoice to expected utility

OpenAIRE

Zagonari, Fabio

2016-01-01

This paper identifies the globally stable conditions under which an individual facing the same choice in many subsequent times learns to behave as prescribed by the expected-utility model. To do so, the analysis moves from the relevant behavioural models suggested by psychology (i.e., weighted probabilities applied to regret and rejoice theory), and by updating probability estimations and outcome preferences according to the learning models suggested by neuroscience (i.e., adaptive learning a...

Expectation, information processing, and subjective duration.

Science.gov (United States)

Simchy-Gross, Rhimmon; Margulis, Elizabeth Hellmuth

2018-01-01

In research on psychological time, it is important to examine the subjective duration of entire stimulus sequences, such as those produced by music (Teki, Frontiers in Neuroscience, 10, 2016). Yet research on the temporal oddball illusion (according to which oddball stimuli seem longer than standard stimuli of the same duration) has examined only the subjective duration of single events contained within sequences, not the subjective duration of sequences themselves. Does the finding that oddballs seem longer than standards translate to entire sequences, such that entire sequences that contain oddballs seem longer than those that do not? Is this potential translation influenced by the mode of information processing-whether people are engaged in direct or indirect temporal processing? Two experiments aimed to answer both questions using different manipulations of information processing. In both experiments, musical sequences either did or did not contain oddballs (auditory sliding tones). To manipulate information processing, we varied the task (Experiment 1), the sequence event structure (Experiments 1 and 2), and the sequence familiarity (Experiment 2) independently within subjects. Overall, in both experiments, the sequences that contained oddballs seemed shorter than those that did not when people were engaged in direct temporal processing, but longer when people were engaged in indirect temporal processing. These findings support the dual-process contingency model of time estimation (Zakay, Attention, Perception & Psychophysics, 54, 656-664, 1993). Theoretical implications for attention-based and memory-based models of time estimation, the pacemaker accumulator and coding efficiency hypotheses of time perception, and dynamic attending theory are discussed.

Traditional finance : behavioral finance distinction in the context of expected utility and prospect theories

OpenAIRE

Tekin, Bilgehan

2016-01-01

Traditional finance has developed based on two fundamental assumptions, including the expected utility theory and rational choice or decision. However, this hypothesis has been criticized heavily by put forward that are not realistic enough. The basis of behavioral finance theory is based on the “prospect theory”. According to this theory individuals cannot act fully rational, they install more sense to loses than at the same amount of profit and they exhibit risk and loss aversion behaviour....

Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality: results of a 10‑year panel study among older workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Solinge, H.; Henkens, K.

2017-01-01

This research examined the judgemental process underlying subjective life expectancy (SLE) and the predictive value of SLE on actual mortality in older adults in the Netherlands. We integrated theoretical insights from life satisfaction research with existing models of SLE. Our model differentiates

Statistical utility theory for comparison of nuclear versus fossil power plant alternatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garribba, S.; Ovi, A.

1977-01-01

A statistical formulation of utility theory is developed for decision problems concerned with the choice among alternative strategies in electric energy production. Four alternatives are considered: nuclear power, fossil power, solar energy, and conservation policy. Attention is focused on a public electric utility thought of as a rational decision-maker. A framework for decisions is then suggested where the admissible strategies and their possible consequences represent the information available to the decision-maker. Once the objectives of the decision process are assessed, consequences can be quantified in terms of measures of effectiveness. Maximum expected utility is the criterion of choice among alternatives. Steps toward expected values are the evaluation of the multidimensional utility function and the assessment of subjective probabilities for consequences. In this respect, the multiplicative form of the utility function seems less restrictive than the additive form and almost as manageable to implement. Probabilities are expressed through subjective marginal probability density functions given at a discrete number of points. The final stage of the decision model is to establish the value of each strategy. To this scope, expected utilities are computed and scaled. The result is that nuclear power offers the best alternative. 8 figures, 9 tables, 32 references

[The subjective quality of life of patients with schizophrenia: influence of psychopathology and patients' expectations. A comparative study].

Science.gov (United States)

Salomé, F; Petitjean, F; Germain, C; Demant, J-C

2004-01-01

Most studies on the quality of life (Qol) of patients with schizophrenia deal with objective living conditions and how they are perceived by hospitalized patients. The few studies that compare Qol for patients treated in part time services with the Qol of ambulatory patients do not show any significant difference in terms of subjective Qol. Some stu-dies evaluate the influence of psychopathology and needs (or expectations) on the subjective Qol in these groups of patients. Available data indicate that the general well-being is influenced by psychopathology (positive, negative or depressive symptoms) and unmet needs in ambulatory patients. They also show that subjective Qol in certain life domains (social relations, family relations, leisure, health, law and security) is influenced by negative symptoms, anxiety and depression in patients treated in part-time services. The aim of this study is to compare the objective and subjective Qol of patients with schizophrenia treated in part time services (day hospital and day care center) to the Qol of out-patients treated on a purely ambulatory basis (out patient clinic). We studied the Qol of 2 groups of 30 patients with schizophrenia (ICD 10 criteria) treated in various centers. The first group was made of ambulatory patients, the second one was constituted of patients treated in a day hospital or a day care center. Patients were matched for age, duration of illness, number of hospitalizations. The instruments used for rating were the following: Clinical Global Impression (CGI), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), Positive And Negative Symptoms Scale (PANSS), Drug Attitude Inventory (DAI-10). The Qol was measured with a french version of the Lancashire Quality Of Life Profile (LQOLP) (Salomé, Germain, Petitjean, Demant and Boyer, 2000). This instrument measures the objective Qol as well as the subjective Qol. It does possess satisfying psychometric properties and offers the possibility to establish Qol profiles. All

Efficient elicitation of utility and probability weighting functions

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Blavatskyy, Pavlo R.

-, č. 211 (2004), s. 1-31 ISSN 1424-0459 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : decision theory * rank-dependent expected utility * cumulative prospect theory Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.iew.unizh.ch/wp/iewwp211.pdf

Happier countries, longer lives: an ecological study on the relationship between subjective sense of well-being and life expectancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Grahame F; Soliman, Elsayed Z

2017-08-01

The relationship between sense of well-being and longevity is not well-established across populations of varying levels of socioeconomic status. We sought to examine the relationship between happiness, or subjective sense of well-being and life expectancy using data from 151 countries. This analysis is based on the 2012 Happy Planet Index project conducted by the Center of Well-Being of the New Economics Foundation, based in the United Kingdom. Well-being data for each country were taken from responses to the 'Ladder of Life' question in the 2012 Gallup World Poll in which participants were asked to rate their quality of life on a scale from 1 (worst possible life) to 10 (best possible life). Life expectancy and gross domestic product data were taken from the 2011 United Nations records. Ecological footprint data were taken from Global Footprint Network records. Subjective sense of well-being was highly correlated with life expectancy (Pearson correlation r = 0.71, p ecological footprint, and population, each 1 unit of the well-being scale was associated with an increase in life expectancy of 4.0 years (95% confidence interval = 2.7-5.3). In conclusion, better sense of well-being has a strong relationship with life expectancy regardless of economic status or population size, suggesting that governments should foster happiness in order to support long-living populations.

Selecting a cutoff point for a developmental screening test based on overall diagnostic indices and total expected utilities of professional preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Hua-Fang; Cheng, Ling-Yee; Hsieh, Wu-Shiun; Yang, Ming-Chin

2010-03-01

A cutoff point in a test with sounded validity and professional preferences can help to make an accurate clinical decision. This study aimed to determine a cutoff point between two strategies for a developmental screening checklist (referred to as Taipei II). Cutoff point A was set as one or more item failed and cutoff point B was set as two or more items failed or one or more marked item failed. This study was based on the total expected utilities of professional preferences and overall diagnostic indices. A self-administered questionnaire was developed to collect the estimated utility from professionals involved in early childhood interventions (n = 81) regarding four screening outcomes (probabilities of true positive, false positive, true negative, or false negative) and costs. The total expected utilities were calculated from the probabilities of four screening outcomes and utility values. The diagnostic odds ratio was higher for strategy B (695 and 209, respectively) than that of strategy A (184 and 150, respectively) when using the Taipei II on children under 3 years of age and age 3 and over. Strategy B also had a higher median total expected utilities score than strategy A (0.78 vs. 0.72 for children or = 3). If only one cutoff point can be chosen, the authors suggest that clinicians should choose cutoff point B when using the Taipei II for screening. However, two cutoff points of Taipei II, a combination of strategy A and B, can also be used clinically. 2010 Formosan Medical Association & Elsevier. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expecting the unexpected

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Heath, Jonathan B.

2013-01-01

People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural......) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire...

Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly...... report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...... to distort reports. We characterize the comparable implications of the general case of a risk averse agent when facing a popular scoring rule over continuous events, and find that these concerns do not apply with anything like the same force. For empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can...

Neural Mechanisms of the Transformation from Objective Value to Subjective Utility: Converting from Count to Worth

Science.gov (United States)

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A.

2016-01-01

When deciding, we aim to choose the “best” possible outcome. This is not just selection of the option that is the most numerous or physically largest, as options are translated from objective value (count) to subjective value (worth or utility). We localized the neural instantiation of the value-to-utility transformation to the dorsal anterior midcingulate cortex (daMCC), with independent replication. The daMCC encodes the context-specific information necessary to convert from count to worth. This encoding is not simply a representation of utility or preference, but the interaction of the two. Specifically, the relationship of brain activation to value is dependent on individual preference, with both positive and negative slopes across the population depending on whether each individual's preference results in enhancement or diminishment of the valuation. For a given value, across participants, enhanced daMCC activation corresponds to diminished subjective valuation, deactivation to enhanced subjective valuation, and non-modulated activation with non-modulated subjective valuation. Further, functional connectivity analyses identified brain regions (positive connectivity with the inferior frontal gyrus and negative connectivity with the nucleus accumbens) through which contextual information may be integrated into the daMCC and allow for outputs to modulate valuation signals. All analyses were replicated through an independent within-study replication, with initial testing in the gains domain and replication in the intermixed and mirrored losses trials. We also present and discuss an ancillary finding: we were unable to identify parametric value signals for losses through whole-brain analyses, and ROI analyses of the vmPFC presented non-modulation across loss value levels. These results identify the neural locus of the value-to-utility transformation, and provide a specific computational function for the daMCC in the production of subjective valuation through

Substrate utilization and thermogenic responses to beta-adrenergic stimulation in obese subjects with NIDDM.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blaak, E.E.; Saris, W.H.M.; Wolffenbuttel, B.H.R.

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVE: This study intended to investigate disturbances in beta-adrenergically-mediated substrate utilization and thermogenesis in obese subjects with mild non insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). DESIGN: Following a baseline period of 30 min, the beta-agonist isoproterenol (ISO) was

Substrate utilization and thermogenic responses to beta-adrenergic stimulation in obese subjects with NIDDM

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blaak, E E; Saris, W H; Wolffenbuttel, B H

OBJECTIVE: This study intended to investigate disturbances in beta-adrenergically-mediated substrate utilization and thermogenesis in obese subjects with mild non insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). DESIGN: Following a baseline period of 30 min, the beta-agonist isoproterenol (ISO) was

Expectancy-Value Theory of Achievement Motivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wigfield; Eccles

2000-01-01

We discuss the expectancy-value theory of motivation, focusing on an expectancy-value model developed and researched by Eccles, Wigfield, and their colleagues. Definitions of crucial constructs in the model, including ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and the components of subjective task values, are provided. These definitions are compared to those of related constructs, including self-efficacy, intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and interest. Research is reviewed dealing with two issues: (1) change in children's and adolescents' ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and subjective values, and (2) relations of children's and adolescents' ability-expectancy beliefs and subjective task values to their performance and choice of activities. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Expected roles and utilization of specialist nurses in Japan: the nurse administrators' perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Onishi, Mami; Kanda, Katsuya

2010-04-01

This study explored (1) expected roles for specialist nurses in Japan and (2) nurse administrators' experience-based management strategies for effective implementation of these roles. Background In Japan, specialist nurses have begun to be recognized as valuable human resources. However, managerial issues in utilizing specialist nurses, including unclear roles and lack of reports on effective management strategies, remain. Three focus-group discussions were conducted. Nine nurse administrators participated. Data were analysed using qualitative content analysis techniques. The expected roles for specialist nurses were: (1) facilitating general nurses' learning; (2) monitoring and improving the patient care standard; and (3) developing new roles for nursing. Two management strategies were: (1) enhancing specialist nurses' influence, and (2) enhancing specialist nurses' motivation. Specialist nurses are important human resources able to assume responsibility for process improvement in nursing care. Effective ways to enhance specialist nurses' influence and motivation include developing their management and communication skills, and coordinating their workload and relationships with other health care professionals. Process improvement indicators may be useful for evaluating specialist nurses' work. Nurse administrators can contribute to effective implementation of specialist nurses' roles not only by clarifying their roles but also by empowering them to keep up with changing organizational needs.

Modified Dempster-Shafer approach using an expected utility interval decision rule

Science.gov (United States)

Cheaito, Ali; Lecours, Michael; Bosse, Eloi

1999-03-01

The combination operation of the conventional Dempster- Shafer algorithm has a tendency to increase exponentially the number of propositions involved in bodies of evidence by creating new ones. The aim of this paper is to explore a 'modified Dempster-Shafer' approach of fusing identity declarations emanating form different sources which include a number of radars, IFF and ESM systems in order to limit the explosion of the number of propositions. We use a non-ad hoc decision rule based on the expected utility interval to select the most probable object in a comprehensive Platform Data Base containing all the possible identity values that a potential target may take. We study the effect of the redistribution of the confidence levels of the eliminated propositions which otherwise overload the real-time data fusion system; these eliminated confidence levels can in particular be assigned to ignorance, or uniformly added to the remaining propositions and to ignorance. A scenario has been selected to demonstrate the performance of our modified Dempster-Shafer method of evidential reasoning.

[Professional's expectations to improve quality of care and social services utilization in geriatric oncology].

Science.gov (United States)

Antoine, Valéry; de Wazières, Benoît; Houédé, Nadine

2015-02-01

Coordination of a multidisciplinary and multi-professional intervention is a key issue in the management of elderly cancer patients to improve health status and quality of life. Optimizing the links between professionals is needed to improve care planning, health and social services utilization. Descriptive study in a French University Hospital. A 6-item structured questionnaire was addressed to professionals involved in global and supportive cares of elderly cancer patients (name, location, effective health care and services offered, needs to improve the quality of their intervention). After the analysis of answers, definition of propositions to improve cares and services utilization. The 37 respondents identified a total of 166 needs to improve quality of care in geriatric oncology. Major expectations were concerning improvement of global/supportive cares and health care services utilization, a better coordination between geriatric teams and oncologists. Ten propositions, including a model of in-hospital health care planning, were defined to answer to professional's needs with the aim of optimizing cancer treatment and global cares. Identification of effective services and needs can represent a first step in a continuous program to improve quality of cares, according to the French national cancer plan 2014-2019. It allows federating professionals for a coordination effort, a better organization of the clinical activity in geriatric oncology, to optimize clinical practice and global cares. Copyright © 2014 Société Française du Cancer. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The expected model of a cadastre in Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jolanta Ciak

2015-03-01

Full Text Available A cadastre is a based on a cadastral map official register of land, property and other utilities that constitute subjects of taxation as well as the source of information on cadastral objects. As indicated in the reference books, it constitutes an institution of law, which in the social perception is seen as providing legal order in the scope of establishing the range of laws, of the sense of security resulting from the fact of the entering of the subjects of taxation and the possibility to exert one’s rights under the registration proceedings. However, the current shape of the register does not meet social expectations. The suggested reform of the taxation of property in Poland (cadastre meets numerous obstacles such as a formal and legal, political, financial or social barrier.

Current maternal age recommendations for prenatal diagnosis: a reappraisal using the expected utility theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Sicherman, N; Bombard, A T; Rappoport, P

1995-01-01

The expected utility theory suggests eliminating an age-specific criterion for recommending prenatal diagnosis to patients. We isolate the factors which patients and physicians need to consider intelligently in prenatal diagnosis, and show that the sole use of a threshold age as a screening device is inadequate. Such a threshold fails to consider adequately patients' attitudes regarding many of the possible outcomes of prenatal diagnosis; in particular, the birth of a chromosomally abnormal child and procedural-related miscarriages. It also precludes testing younger women and encourages testing in patients who do not necessarily require or desire it. All pregnant women should be informed about their prenatal diagnosis options, screening techniques, and diagnostic procedures, including their respective limitations, risks, and benefits.

Measuring population health in Moldova: health expectancies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Avram

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Health measures are decisive for the development and implementation of population health policies. Monitoring health indicators can lead to improvements in health and decrease in the inequalities among subpopulations. The life expectancy at birth for the Moldovan population did not increase considerably during the last decades, due to the social and economic crisis which led to high mortality and poor health. In Moldova, no aggregated health indicators are utilized for health monitoring. Therefore, the authors calculated health indicators to assess the population health and argue their importance. Mortality and subjective data on self-perceived health and self-rated morbidity from the Household Budget Survey was used for constructing period morbidity-mortality tables. Thus, the authors applied Sullivan’s method to calculate the life expectancy in very good/good/fair health and the life expectancy without chronic morbidity for the period 2006 - 2015. The life expectancies in very good/good/fair health showed a compression of morbidity in the older ages for both sexes, and for rural and urban types of residence. The life expectancies without chronic morbidity for males and for urban dwellers demonstrated an expansion of morbidity. Although the life expectancy is slowly increasing, the trends in population health are contradictory, depending on the applied measures. The health expectancy indicators, based on self-perceived health, depict the actual situation in the population health. These indicators are becoming more essential with the ageing process and can be used for the tailoring of social and health policies and services to the real needs of the population.

Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2015-01-01

This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...... subjects and if placement contradicts tracking experiences in middle school. My findings support the hypothesis that adolescents adapt their educational expectations to ability signals sent by schools....

Development and validation of a questionnaire to measure preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy: EXPECT questionnaire.

Science.gov (United States)

Patil, V M; Chakraborty, S; Jithin, T K; Dessai, S; Sajith Babu, T P; Raghavan, V; Geetha, M; Kumar, T Shiva; Biji, M S; Bhattacharjee, A; Nair, C

2016-01-01

The objective was to design and validate the questionnaire for capturing palliative chemotherapy-related preferences and expectations. Single arm, unicentric, prospective observational study. EXPECT questionnaire was designed to capture preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy. This questionnaire underwent a linguistic validation and then was tested in patients. Ten patients are undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria self-administered the EXPECT questionnaire in regional language. After filling this questionnaire, they self-administered quick questionnaire-10 (QQ-10). SPSS version 16 (IBM New York) was used for analysis. Completion rate of EXPECT questionnaire was calculated. The feasibility, face validity, utility and time taken for completion of EXPECT questionnaire was also assessed. The completion rate of this questionnaire was 100%. All patients completed questionnaire within 5 min. The QQ-10 tool confirmed the feasibility, face validity and utility of the questionnaire. EXPECT questionnaire was validated in the regional language, and it's an effective tool for capturing patient's preferences and expectation from chemotherapy.

Pareto utility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ikefuji, M.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R.; Muris, C.H.M.

2013-01-01

In searching for an appropriate utility function in the expected utility framework, we formulate four properties that we want the utility function to satisfy. We conduct a search for such a function, and we identify Pareto utility as a function satisfying all four desired properties. Pareto utility

The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Lee, Jinkook

these expectations and savings behavior, using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We find a clear relation between subjective expectations and probability of future nursing home entry, and a positive effect of these expectations on savings behavior. Surprisingly, we find no difference of this effect...... by wealth group, so it seems that Medicaid eligibility in the context of nursing home entry plays no factor in the decision to save....

Adaptation gap hypothesis: How differences between users’ expected and perceived agent functions affect their subjective impression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takanori Komatsu

2011-02-01

Full Text Available We describe an “adaptation gap” that indicates the differences between the functions of artificial agents that users expect before starting their interactions and the functions they perceive after their interactions. We investigated the effect of this adaptation gap on users’ impressions of artificial agents because any variations in impression before and after the start of an interaction determines whether the user feels that this agent is worth interacting with. The results showed that positive or negative signs of the adaptation gap and subjective impression scores of agents before the experiment significantly affected the users’ final impressions of the agents.

Subjective health complaints and self-rated health: are expectancies more important than socioeconomic status and workload?

Science.gov (United States)

Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

2014-06-01

The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative effect of SES (as measured by level of education), physical workload, and response outcome expectancies on subjective health complaints (SHC) and self-rated health, and if response outcome expectancies mediate the effects of education and physical workload on SHC and self-rated health. A survey was carried out among 1,746 Norwegian municipal employees (mean age 44.2, 81 % females). Structural Equation Models with SHC and self-rated health as outcomes were conducted. Education, physical workload, and response outcome expectancies, were the independent 28 variables in the model. Helplessness/hopelessness had a stronger direct effect on self-rated health and SHC than education and physical workload, for both men and women. Helplessness/hopelessness fully mediated the effect of physical workload on SHC for men (0.121), and mediated 30 % of a total effect of 0.247 for women. For women, education had a small but significant indirect effect through helplessness/hopelessness on self-rated health (0.040) and SHC (-0.040), but no direct effects were found. For men, there was no effect of education on SHC, and only a direct effect on self-rated health (0.134). The results indicated that helplessness/hopelessness is more important for SHC and health than well-established measures on SES such as years of education and perceived physical workload in this sample. Helplessness/hopelessness seems to function as a mechanism between physical workload and health.

WHAT INFLUENCES STUDENTS' EXPECTATIONS IN WHAT REGARDS GRADES?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mare Codruta

2013-07-01

Full Text Available After a period of studying a certain subject, students form an opinion about it and begin having certain expectations. These expectations and the degree in which, in the end, they fulfil, contribute to the reputation of the university. Consequently, a continuous evaluation of the quality of the educational process is needed. The present research presents a part of a more complex study made on a sample of master students in Audit and Financial Management in Romania. The goal was to evidence the main factors that affect students' expectations in what regards the grades they will obtain at the end of the semester. For this, a questionnaire of 20 questions was applied to 250 such students. After factor reduction procedures were applied, six most significant variables were kept in the analysis: the proportion of knowledge acquired, the perceived level of utility of the discipline in the professional career of the student, the proportion in which the subject could contribute to getting employed in the field it belongs to, the evaluation method and two variables evaluating through grades the didactic performance during the course and the overall performance of the tenure professor. The influence of these variables upon the grade expected by the student was assessed with the help of the OLS regression, both in the simple and multiple forms. Out of the six hypotheses formulated, only one proved to be false based on the simple regression analysis. When individually assessed, the evaluation method announced by the teacher at the beginning of the semester turned out to have no statistically significant influence upon students' expectations. For the rest of the variables, results were according to the assumptions made, i.e. all determine in a significant positive manner the students' opinion about the grade they will get. We have also constructed the multiple regression models. When putting all variables together, the significance changes. The level of

Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

OpenAIRE

Gollier, Christian

2010-01-01

Weitzman (1998) showed that when future interest rates are uncertain, using the expected net present value implies a term structure of discount rates that is decreasing to the smallest possible interest rate. On the contrary, using the expected net future value criteria implies an increasing term structure of discount rates up to the largest possible interest rate. We reconcile the two approaches by introducing risk aversion and utility maximization. We show that if the aggregate consumption ...

Expected utility versus expected regret theory versions of decision curve analysis do generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account.

Science.gov (United States)

Hozo, Iztok; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2018-02-01

Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method for evaluating diagnostic tests and predictive models. It was developed based on expected utility theory (EUT) and has been reformulated using expected regret theory (ERG). Under certain circumstances, these 2 formulations yield different results. Here we describe these situations and explain the variation. We compare the derivations of the EUT- and ERG-based formulations of DCA for a typical medical decision problem: "treat none," "treat all," or "use model" to guide treatment. We illustrate the differences between the 2 formulations when applied to the following clinical question: at which probability of death we should refer a terminally ill patient to hospice? Both DCA formulations yielded identical but mirrored results when treatment effects are ignored; they generated significantly different results otherwise. Treatment effect has a significant effect on the results derived by EUT DCA and less so on ERG DCA. The elicitation of specific values for disutilities affected the results even more significantly in the context of EUT DCA, whereas no such elicitation was required within the ERG framework. EUT and ERG DCA generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account. The magnitude of the difference depends on the effect of treatment and the disutilities associated with disease and treatment effects. This is important to realize as the current practice guidelines are uniformly based on EUT; the same recommendations can significantly differ if they are derived based on ERG framework. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A case for teaching English as a service subject at universities in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A case for teaching English as a service subject at universities in Kenya. ... of this is that the learner is expected to acquire and utilize skills using a language he or she is not quite ... paper discusses the English language needs of Kenyan students at the time of entry to ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

2004-01-01

In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality: results of a 10-year panel study among older workers.

Science.gov (United States)

van Solinge, Hanna; Henkens, Kène

2018-06-01

This research examined the judgemental process underlying subjective life expectancy (SLE) and the predictive value of SLE on actual mortality in older adults in the Netherlands. We integrated theoretical insights from life satisfaction research with existing models of SLE. Our model differentiates between bottom-up (objective data of any type) and top-down factors (psychological variables). The study used data from the first wave of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute Work and Retirement Panel. This is a prospective cohort study among Dutch older workers. The analytical sample included 2278 individuals, assessed at age 50-64 in 2001, with vital statistics tracked through 2011. We used a linear regression model to estimate the impact of bottom-up and top-down factors on SLE. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the impact of SLE on the timing of mortality, crude and adjusted for actuarial correlates of general life expectancy, family history, health and trait-like dispositions. Results reveal that psychological variables play a role in the formation of SLE. Further, the results indicate that SLE predicts actual mortality, crude and adjusted for socio-demographic, biomedical and psychological confounders. Education has an additional effect on mortality. Those with higher educational attainment were less likely to die within the follow-up period. This SES gradient in mortality was not captured in SLE. The findings indicate that SLE is an independent predictor of mortality in a pre-retirement cohort in the Netherlands. SLE does not fully capture educational differences in mortality. Particularly, higher-educated individuals underestimate their life expectancy.

Regression analysis utilizing subjective evaluation of emotional experience in PET studies on emotions.

Science.gov (United States)

Aalto, Sargo; Wallius, Esa; Näätänen, Petri; Hiltunen, Jaana; Metsähonkala, Liisa; Sipilä, Hannu; Karlsson, Hasse

2005-09-01

A methodological study on subject-specific regression analysis (SSRA) exploring the correlation between the neural response and the subjective evaluation of emotional experience in eleven healthy females is presented. The target emotions, i.e., amusement and sadness, were induced using validated film clips, regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) was measured using positron emission tomography (PET), and the subjective intensity of the emotional experience during the PET scanning was measured using a category ratio (CR-10) scale. Reliability analysis of the rating data indicated that the subjects rated the intensity of their emotional experience fairly consistently on the CR-10 scale (Cronbach alphas 0.70-0.97). A two-phase random-effects analysis was performed to ensure the generalizability and inter-study comparability of the SSRA results. Random-effects SSRAs using Statistical non-Parametric Mapping 99 (SnPM99) showed that rCBF correlated with the self-rated intensity of the emotional experience mainly in the brain regions that were identified in the random-effects subtraction analyses using the same imaging data. Our results give preliminary evidence of a linear association between the neural responses related to amusement and sadness and the self-evaluated intensity of the emotional experience in several regions involved in the emotional response. SSRA utilizing subjective evaluation of emotional experience turned out a feasible and promising method of analysis. It allows versatile exploration of the neurobiology of emotions and the neural correlates of actual and individual emotional experience. Thus, SSRA might be able to catch the idiosyncratic aspects of the emotional response better than traditional subtraction analysis.

Dishonest Academic Conduct: From the Perspective of the Utility Function.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Ying; Tian, Rui

Dishonest academic conduct has aroused extensive attention in academic circles. To explore how scholars make decisions according to the principle of maximal utility, the author has constructed the general utility function based on the expected utility theory. The concrete utility functions of different types of scholars were deduced. They are as follows: risk neutral, risk averse, and risk preference. Following this, the assignment method was adopted to analyze and compare the scholars' utilities of academic conduct. It was concluded that changing the values of risk costs, internal condemnation costs, academic benefits, and the subjective estimation of penalties following dishonest academic conduct can lead to changes in the utility of academic dishonesty. The results of the current study suggest that within scientific research, measures to prevent and govern dishonest academic conduct should be formulated according to the various effects of the above four variables.

Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

Science.gov (United States)

Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

2003-06-01

This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

Expectations about Expectations of the Public. Political Elections and the Segmentation of the Political Public

OpenAIRE

Kusche, Isabel

2012-01-01

This article analyzes the role that expectations about particularistic expectations of the political public play in the relationship between political actors and voters. It questions the systems-theoretical assumption that political elections and public communication about politics create an unknown public and that parties therefore can attract voters only with the help of relatively universalistic programs. Beyond the universalism induced by the mass media parties and politicians utilize opp...

Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

DuGoff, Eva H; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Buttorff, Christine

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The number of people living with multiple chronic conditions is increasing, but we know little about the impact of multimorbidity on life expectancy. OBJECTIVE: We analyze life expectancy in Medicare beneficiaries by number of chronic conditions. RESEARCH DESIGN: A retrospective cohort...... study using single-decrement period life tables. SUBJECTS: Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. MEASURES: Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer...... and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency....

The Utility of the Prototype/Willingness Model in Predicting Alcohol Use among North American Indigenous Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Armenta, Brian E.; Hautala, Dane S.; Whitbeck, Les B.

2015-01-01

In the present study, we considered the utility of the prototype/willingness model in predicting alcohol use among North-American Indigenous adolescents. Specifically, using longitudinal data, we examined the associations among subjective drinking norms, positive drinker prototypes, drinking expectations (as a proxy of drinking willingness), and…

The significance of belief and expectancy within the spiritual healing encounter.

Science.gov (United States)

Wirth, D P

1995-07-01

Historically, traditional cultures recognized the importance of belief and expectancy within the healing encounter and created complex rituals and ceremonies designed to elicit or foster the expectancy and participation of both the healer and patient, as well as the community as a whole. This holistic approach to health care was a fundamental component in the spiritual healing rituals of virtually all traditional native cultures. The focus of the current study was to assess the impact of healer and patient expectations on mental and physical health parameters following a spiritual healing session. A pre-post methodological design which incorporated extensive psychophysiological health outcome measures along with independent medical diagnoses was utilized. The study was conducted in a northern California suburb of Marin County utilizing an American-born spiritual healer trained in the Philippines. The results indicated that there was a statistically significant difference between the pre-treatment and post-treatment scores for all fourteen dependent variables examined. The data also demonstrated a significant difference between the high versus low expectancy subjects for both patient and healer groups, as well as a significant relationship between high expectancy in patients and healer and the effectiveness of the spiritual healing encounter. The results of the study therefore suggest that high healer and patient expectancy may be important elements which can serve as both predictors as well as facilitators of the healing process. The degree of bonding or communication between the healer and patient was postulated as an important factor in this regard. Due to the fact that a majority of the conditions reported (75%) were organic disorders that would not commonly disappear within the 3 week time frame of the study, the significant results obtained suggest that spiritual healing in combination with traditional allopathic medicine may have the potential to be an

Illustrated Examples of the Effects of Risk Preferences and Expectations on Bargaining Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickinson, David L.

2003-01-01

Describes bargaining examples that use expected utility theory. Provides example results that are intuitive, shown graphically and algebraically, and offer upper-level student samples that illustrate the usefulness of the expected utility theory. (JEH)

Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

2009-01-01

In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

Risk aversion and uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis: the expected-utility, moment-generating function approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Elbasha, Elamin H

2005-05-01

The availability of patient-level data from clinical trials has spurred a lot of interest in developing methods for quantifying and presenting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Although the majority has focused on developing methods for using sample data to estimate a confidence interval for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), a small strand of the literature has emphasized the importance of incorporating risk preferences and the trade-off between the mean and the variance of returns to investment in health and medicine (mean-variance analysis). This paper shows how the exponential utility-moment-generating function approach is a natural extension to this branch of the literature for modelling choices from healthcare interventions with uncertain costs and effects. The paper assumes an exponential utility function, which implies constant absolute risk aversion, and is based on the fact that the expected value of this function results in a convenient expression that depends only on the moment-generating function of the random variables. The mean-variance approach is shown to be a special case of this more general framework. The paper characterizes the solution to the resource allocation problem using standard optimization techniques and derives the summary measure researchers need to estimate for each programme, when the assumption of risk neutrality does not hold, and compares it to the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The importance of choosing the correct distribution of costs and effects and the issues related to estimation of the parameters of the distribution are also discussed. An empirical example to illustrate the methods and concepts is provided. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

Science.gov (United States)

Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

2011-04-01

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

Correlations between coping styles and symptom expectation for whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, Robert; Russell, Anthony S

2010-11-01

In pain conditions, active coping has been found to be associated with less severe depression, increased activity level, and less functional impairment. Studies indicate that Canadians have a high expectation for chronic pain following whiplash injury. Expectation of recovery has been shown to predict recovery in whiplash victims. The objective of this study was to compare both the expectations and the coping style for whiplash injury in injury-naive subjects. The Vanderbilt Pain Management Inventory was administered to university students. Subjects who had not yet experienced whiplash injury were given a vignette concerning a neck sprain (whiplash injury) in a motor vehicle collision and were asked to indicate how likely they were to have thoughts or behaviors indicated in the coping style questionnaire. Subjects also completed expectation questionnaires regarding whiplash injury. Subjects (57%) held an expectation of chronic pain after whiplash injury. The mean active coping style score was 28.5±6.6 (40 is the maximum score for active coping). The mean passive coping style score was 28.5±6.6 (50 is the maximum score for passive coping). Those with high passive coping styles had a higher mean expectation score. The correlation between passive coping style score and expectation score was 0.62, while the correlation between active coping style score and expectation was -0.48. Both expectations and coping styles may interact or be co-modifiers in the outcomes of whiplash injury in whiplash victims. Further studies of coping style as an etiologic factor in the chronic whiplash syndrome are needed.

Marital Expectations in Strong African American Marriages.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaterlaus, J Mitchell; Skogrand, Linda; Chaney, Cassandra; Gahagan, Kassandra

2017-12-01

The current exploratory study utilized a family strengths framework to identify marital expectations in 39 strong African American heterosexual marriages. Couples reflected on their marital expectations over their 10 or more years of marriage. Three themes emerged through qualitative analysis and the participants' own words were used in the presentation of the themes. African Americans indicated that there was growth in marital expectations over time, with marital expectations often beginning with unrealistic expectations that grew into more realistic expectations as their marriages progressed. Participants also indicated that core expectations in strong African American marriages included open communication, congruent values, and positive treatment of spouse. Finally, participants explained there is an "I" in marriage as they discussed the importance of autonomy within their marital relationships. Results are discussed in association with existing research and theory. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Teacher Expectancy Related to Student Performance in Vocational Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Samuel M.; Pandya, Himanshu S.

1980-01-01

This experiment explored the effect of teacher expectations on vocational students' cognitive and psychomotor skills and on attitudes. Although teachers' expectations changed student attitudes toward teachers and subjects, neither expectations nor attitude change had an effect on student achievement. (SK)

Ethical aspects of trade subject to risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gethmann, C.F.

1987-01-01

The paper pleads for unrestricted use of the requirement of rational risk comparison. The ethical aspects of the problem are that human beings cannot help expecting certain people to take risks and others to forsake them. Expectation of risk requires an ethical justification. Consideration of justification has of course to originate from the fact that both readiness to accept risk and also the preference system are subject to strong subjective variations. Consequently, intercession has to be made to compare the definition of subjective probability (competitiveness) and a subjective preference matrix as the basis for a rational definition of risk. General liability results first due to the fact that consistency can be expected from each individual in relation to the readiness to accept risk expected of him. According to the requirement for consistency introduced here, a readiness to accept risk may be expected of an individual which is otherwise already accepted. (orig.) [de

Dopamine reward prediction error responses reflect marginal utility.

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Schultz, Wolfram

2014-11-03

Optimal choices require an accurate neuronal representation of economic value. In economics, utility functions are mathematical representations of subjective value that can be constructed from choices under risk. Utility usually exhibits a nonlinear relationship to physical reward value that corresponds to risk attitudes and reflects the increasing or decreasing marginal utility obtained with each additional unit of reward. Accordingly, neuronal reward responses coding utility should robustly reflect this nonlinearity. In two monkeys, we measured utility as a function of physical reward value from meaningful choices under risk (that adhered to first- and second-order stochastic dominance). The resulting nonlinear utility functions predicted the certainty equivalents for new gambles, indicating that the functions' shapes were meaningful. The monkeys were risk seeking (convex utility function) for low reward and risk avoiding (concave utility function) with higher amounts. Critically, the dopamine prediction error responses at the time of reward itself reflected the nonlinear utility functions measured at the time of choices. In particular, the reward response magnitude depended on the first derivative of the utility function and thus reflected the marginal utility. Furthermore, dopamine responses recorded outside of the task reflected the marginal utility of unpredicted reward. Accordingly, these responses were sufficient to train reinforcement learning models to predict the behaviorally defined expected utility of gambles. These data suggest a neuronal manifestation of marginal utility in dopamine neurons and indicate a common neuronal basis for fundamental explanatory constructs in animal learning theory (prediction error) and economic decision theory (marginal utility). Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developmental changes and gender effects on motivational constructs based on the expectancy-value model in Czech and United States students regarding learning of science, mathematics, and other subjects

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Eun-Mi

This study employed American and Czech student samples to investigate the motivational constructs used in Eccles and Wigfield's (1983) expectancy-value model. To predict achievement behavior, the model specifies relationships among expectancy for-success and task value, task-specific self-concept, perception of task-difficulty, perceptions of social environment, and interpretations and attributions for past events in relation to the social world. Czech and American students (n = 1,145) in grades 4--12 were the participants in this study. The causal relationships among the constructs were tested to investigate structural similarities and differences in the models for both countries. This study also explored developmental changes, gender, and national differences in the students' motivational beliefs for these motivational constructs: Expectancy for Success, Intrinsic Interest Value, Task-specific Self-concept, Perception of Task-difficulty, and Perceived Vocational Gender Dominance for science, mathematics, and other school subjects. The findings indicated that, for both countries, with respect to changes over grade level, compared to the younger students, the older students showed lower motivational beliefs for most subject areas except reading. However, the Czech students in grades 6--8 showed more positive motivational beliefs in life science and social studies than did the Czech students in other grade levels. In comparing genders, the male students exhibited more positive motivational beliefs in physical science than did the female students, and female students showed more positive motivational beliefs in reading than did the male students. For life science, the Czech female students rated Intrinsic Interest Value and Task-specific Self-concept higher than did their peer male students. The American students' motivational beliefs in reading were more positive than were Czech students', and the Czech students held more positive motivational beliefs in life

Ethics, rhetoric, and expectations: responsibilities and obligations of health care systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Foreman, Thomas

2014-09-01

Health care organization foundations and other fund-raising departments often function at an arm's length from the system at large. As such, operations related to their mandate to raise funds and market the organization do not receive the same level of ethical scrutiny brought to bear on other arms within the organization. An area that could benefit from a more focused ethics lens is the use of language and rhetoric employed in order to raise funds and market the organization. Such departments and divisions often utilize overblown promises of miracles and extraordinary advances to convince donors to contribute and to persuade the general public. The result can be a heightened sense of expectation on the part of patients, their families, and the general public as to what can realistically be achieved by the health care system, leading to disappointment and conflict when these expectations are not or cannot be met. This article suggests that such advertising and marketing be subject to the same advertising standards as other businesses.

Encouragement of Enzyme Reaction Utilizing Heat Generation from Ferromagnetic Particles Subjected to an AC Magnetic Field.

Science.gov (United States)

Suzuki, Masashi; Aki, Atsushi; Mizuki, Toru; Maekawa, Toru; Usami, Ron; Morimoto, Hisao

2015-01-01

We propose a method of activating an enzyme utilizing heat generation from ferromagnetic particles under an ac magnetic field. We immobilize α-amylase on the surface of ferromagnetic particles and analyze its activity. We find that when α-amylase/ferromagnetic particle hybrids, that is, ferromagnetic particles, on which α-amylase molecules are immobilized, are subjected to an ac magnetic field, the particles generate heat and as a result, α-amylase on the particles is heated up and activated. We next prepare a solution, in which α-amylase/ferromagnetic particle hybrids and free, nonimmobilized chitinase are dispersed, and analyze their activities. We find that when the solution is subjected to an ac magnetic field, the activity of α-amylase immobilized on the particles increases, whereas that of free chitinase hardly changes; in other words, only α-amylase immobilized on the particles is selectively activated due to heat generation from the particles.

Cannabis expectancies in substance misusers: French validation of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire.

Science.gov (United States)

Guillem, Eric; Notides, Christine; Vorspan, Florence; Debray, Marcel; Nieto, Isabel; Leroux, Mayliss; Lépine, Jean-Pierre

2011-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the French version of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire (48 items) and study the cannabis expectancies according to the patterns of substance use and psychiatric disorders (DSM-IV). A sample of 263 subjects (average age 33.1 years [SD = 8.7], 56% men) consisting of cannabis users (n = 64), psychiatric inpatients (n = 175, most of whom were hospitalized for withdrawal), and a control group (n = 24) completed the questionnaire. Internal reliability was good (α= .87) and temporal reliability was satisfactory, with 24 of 48 items having a significant κ ≥ .41. Factor analysis showed four main factors that explained 42.1% of the total variance. The women feared Cognitive Impairment and Negative Effects, and Negative Behavioral Effects more than the men. The onset age of cannabis use, onset age of abuse, abuse and dependence were associated with fewer negative expectancies. Cannabis dependents differed from abusers by more Relaxation and Social Facilitation expectancies. Patients with major depressive episodes, panic disorder, social anxiety disorder, or posttraumatic stress disorder feared negative effects the most. Schizophrenic patients expected more Perceptual Enhancement and Craving. The French version of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire has good psychometric properties and is valid to assess cannabis expectancies in adolescents and adults with substance use disorders. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

Dispositional Optimism and Therapeutic Expectations in Early Phase Oncology Trials

Science.gov (United States)

Jansen, Lynn A.; Mahadevan, Daruka; Appelbaum, Paul S.; Klein, William MP; Weinstein, Neil D.; Mori, Motomi; Daffé, Racky; Sulmasy, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Purpose Prior research has identified unrealistic optimism as a bias that might impair informed consent among patient-subjects in early phase oncology trials. Optimism, however, is not a unitary construct – it can also be defined as a general disposition, or what is called dispositional optimism. We assessed whether dispositional optimism would be related to high expectations for personal therapeutic benefit reported by patient-subjects in these trials but not to the therapeutic misconception. We also assessed how dispositional optimism related to unrealistic optimism. Methods Patient-subjects completed questionnaires designed to measure expectations for therapeutic benefit, dispositional optimism, unrealistic optimism, and the therapeutic misconception. Results Dispositional optimism was significantly associated with higher expectations for personal therapeutic benefit (Spearman r=0.333, poptimism was weakly associated with unrealistic optimism (Spearman r=0.215, p=0.005). In multivariate analysis, both dispositional optimism (p=0.02) and unrealistic optimism (poptimism (p=.0001), but not dispositional optimism, was independently associated with the therapeutic misconception. Conclusion High expectations for therapeutic benefit among patient-subjects in early phase oncology trials should not be assumed to result from misunderstanding of specific information about the trials. Our data reveal that these expectations are associated with either a dispositionally positive outlook on life or biased expectations about specific aspects of trial participation. Not all manifestations of optimism are the same, and different types of optimism likely have different consequences for informed consent in early phase oncology research. PMID:26882017

The Utility of Single Subject Design Research

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Kyle D.

2016-01-01

Single subject design (SSD) research is a quantitative approach used to investigate basic and applied research questions. It has been used for decades to examine issues of social importance such as those related to general and special education strategies, therapeutic approaches in mental health, community health practices, safety, and business…

Encouragement of Enzyme Reaction Utilizing Heat Generation from Ferromagnetic Particles Subjected to an AC Magnetic Field.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masashi Suzuki

Full Text Available We propose a method of activating an enzyme utilizing heat generation from ferromagnetic particles under an ac magnetic field. We immobilize α-amylase on the surface of ferromagnetic particles and analyze its activity. We find that when α-amylase/ferromagnetic particle hybrids, that is, ferromagnetic particles, on which α-amylase molecules are immobilized, are subjected to an ac magnetic field, the particles generate heat and as a result, α-amylase on the particles is heated up and activated. We next prepare a solution, in which α-amylase/ferromagnetic particle hybrids and free, nonimmobilized chitinase are dispersed, and analyze their activities. We find that when the solution is subjected to an ac magnetic field, the activity of α-amylase immobilized on the particles increases, whereas that of free chitinase hardly changes; in other words, only α-amylase immobilized on the particles is selectively activated due to heat generation from the particles.

When Kahneman meets Manski: Using dual systems of reasoning to interpret subjective expectations of equity returns

OpenAIRE

Gouret , Fabian; Hollard , Guillaume

2011-01-01

International audience; To understand how decisions to invest in stocks are taken, economists need to elicit expectations relative to expected risk-return trade-off. One of the few surveys which have included such questions is the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999-2001. Using this survey, Dominitz and Manski find an important heterogeneity across respondents that can hardly be accounted for by simple models of expectations formation. This paper claims that much of the heterogeneity deri...

In search of the comfortable indoor environment: A comparison of the utility of objective and subjective indicators of indoor comfort

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fransson, Niklas; Skoog, Jennie [Building Services Engineering, Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg (Sweden); Vaestfjaell, Daniel [Department of Psychology, Goeteborg University (Sweden)

2007-05-15

Today, many procedures for assessing the indoor environment rely on both subjective and objective indicators (e.g. ANSI/ASHRAE 55-2004; ISO 10551). It is however unclear how these two types of measurements are related to perceived comfort. This article aims at assessing the relative utility of subjective (rating scale measures) and objective indicators of perceived comfort of indoor environments. In a hospital setting, physical environmental variables (e.g. temperature, relative humidity and noise level) were simultaneously measured as respondents (both patients and staff) rated their perception of the indoor environment. Regression analyses indicated that the subjective sensory ratings were significantly better than objective indicators at predicting overall rated indoor comfort. These results are discussed in relation to existing measurement procedures and standards. (author)

Multiattribute Utility Theory, Intertemporal Utility and Correlation Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten

2018-01-01

Convenient assumptions about qualitative properties of the intertemporal utility function have generated counterintuitive implications for the relationship between atemporal risk aversion and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. If the intertemporal utility function is additively separable...... aversion. Our results show that subjects are correlation averse over lotteries with intertemporal income profiles....

Crack initiation behaviors of metallic walls subjected to high heat flux expected at plasma disruption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamazaki, Seiichiro; Uno, Masayoshi; Seki, Masahiro.

1989-01-01

Experimental and numerical studies were performed to investigate crack initiation behavior near a surface of stainless steel and tungsten when subjected to extremely high heat flux. The improved electron beam test facility was used as the heat source. Two-dimensional thermal and elasto-plastic stress analyses were also performed. From the results for stainless steel, micro-cracks about 0.1 mm deep only initiated in the resolidified layer along dendrites. No cracks propagated into the non-melted zone, and repeated heating of up to 20 times did not affect the depth and population of the cracks. According to the elasto-plastic stress analyses, no fatigue cracks were expected. Cracks with a depth of more than a few millimeters were observed in a tungsten plate. The cracks initiated at a boundary between heated and unheated areas. They grew into the non-melted zone, and curved towards the center part of the heated area. The elasto-plastic stress analyses indicated that the cracks were initiated due to the residual tensile strain after heated at the surface of the test specimen. When the heat flux was repeated, the cracks propagated and penetrated to the rear side of the test specimen in several repetition. (author)

Dispositional optimism and therapeutic expectations in early-phase oncology trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Jansen, Lynn A; Mahadevan, Daruka; Appelbaum, Paul S; Klein, William M P; Weinstein, Neil D; Mori, Motomi; Daffé, Racky; Sulmasy, Daniel P

2016-04-15

Prior research has identified unrealistic optimism as a bias that might impair informed consent among patient-subjects in early-phase oncology trials. However, optimism is not a unitary construct; it also can be defined as a general disposition, or what is called dispositional optimism. The authors assessed whether dispositional optimism would be related to high expectations for personal therapeutic benefit reported by patient-subjects in these trials but not to the therapeutic misconception. The authors also assessed how dispositional optimism related to unrealistic optimism. Patient-subjects completed questionnaires designed to measure expectations for therapeutic benefit, dispositional optimism, unrealistic optimism, and the therapeutic misconception. Dispositional optimism was found to be significantly associated with higher expectations for personal therapeutic benefit (Spearman rank correlation coefficient [r], 0.333; Poptimism was found to be weakly associated with unrealistic optimism (Spearman r, 0.215; P = .005). On multivariate analysis, both dispositional optimism (P = .02) and unrealistic optimism (Poptimism (P = .0001), but not dispositional optimism, was found to be independently associated with the therapeutic misconception. High expectations for therapeutic benefit among patient-subjects in early-phase oncology trials should not be assumed to result from misunderstanding of specific information regarding the trials. The data from the current study indicate that these expectations are associated with either a dispositionally positive outlook on life or biased expectations concerning specific aspects of trial participation. Not all manifestations of optimism are the same, and different types of optimism likely have different consequences for informed consent in early-phase oncology research. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

The Influence of Time Attitudes on Alcohol-Related Attitudes, Behaviors and Subjective Life Expectancy in Early Adolescence: A Longitudinal Examination Using Mover-Stayer Latent Transition Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Kevin Eugene; Morgan, Grant; Worrell, Frank C.; Sumnall, Harry; McKay, Michael Thomas

2018-01-01

The goal of the present study is to examine the stability of time attitudes profiles across a one-year period as well as the association between time attitudes profiles and several variables. These variables include attitudes towards alcohol, context of alcohol use, consumption of a full drink, and subjective life expectancy. We assessed the…

Children's motivation in elementary physical education: an expectancy-value model of achievement choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin; Solmon, Melinda

2003-03-01

This study examined children's motivation in elementary physical education within an expectancy-value model developed by Eccles and her colleagues. Four hundred fourteen students in second and fourth grades completed questionnaires assessing their expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values, and intention for future participation in physical education. Results indicated that expectancy-related beliefs and subjective task values were clearly distinguishable from one another across physical education and throwing. The two constructs were related to each other positively. Children's intention for future participation in physical education was positively associated with their subjective task values and/or expectancy-related beliefs. Younger children had higher motivation for learning in physical education than older children. Gender differences emerged and the findings provided empirical evidence supporting the validity of the expectancy-value model in elementary physical education.

Utility guidance to advanced LWR designers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yedidia, J.M.

1990-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe the process envisioned for the development of advanced reactors for future use by the utility industry. The role of the potential utility customer is gradually evolving from that of an owner-operator of such plants to that of a sponsor-participant in the actual design process. The author discusses development of a set of utility requirements, intended to describe in detail utility needs and expectations relative to the performance of future reactors. The reactor vendors, who participated actively in the preparation of the requirements documents, pledged to make every effort to meet them in their future designs. At that stage, when the requirements have been finalized and agreed to by all parties involved, including the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the utilities were expected to move to the sidelines and wait for the reactor vendors to come up with the product

Identifying public expectations of genetic biobanks.

Science.gov (United States)

Critchley, Christine; Nicol, Dianne; McWhirter, Rebekah

2017-08-01

Understanding public priorities for biobanks is vital for maximising utility and efficiency of genetic research and maintaining respect for donors. This research directly assessed the relative importance the public place on different expectations of biobanks. Quantitative and qualitative results from a national sample of 800 Australians revealed that the majority attributed more importance to protecting privacy and ethical conduct than maximising new healthcare benefits, which was in turn viewed as more important than obtaining specific consent, benefit sharing, collaborating and sharing data. A latent class analysis identified two distinct classes displaying different patterns of expectations. One placed higher priority on behaviours that respect the donor ( n = 623), the other on accelerating science ( n = 278). Additional expectations derived from qualitative data included the need for biobanks to be transparent and to prioritise their research focus, educate the public and address commercialisation.

[Expectations and patient satisfaction in hospitals: construction and application of an expectation-based experience typology and its use in the management of quality and expectations].

Science.gov (United States)

Gehrlach, Christoph; Güntert, Bernhard

2015-01-01

Patient satisfaction (PS) surveys are frequently used evaluation methods to show performance from the customer's view. This approach has some fundamental deficits, especially with respect to theory, methodology and usage. Because of the significant theoretical value of the expectation confirmation/disconfirmation concept in the development of PS, an expectation-based experience typology has been developed and tested to check whether this approach could be a theoretical and practical alternative to the survey of PS. Due to the mainly cognitive-rational process of comparison between expectations and expectation fulfilment, it is easier to make changes in this stage of the process than in the subsequent stage of the development of PS that is mainly based on emotional-affective processes. The paper contains a literature review of the common concept of PS and its causal and influencing factors. Based on the theoretical part of this study, an expectation-based experience typology was developed. In the next step, the typology was subjected to exploratory testing, based on two patient surveys. In some parts of the tested typology explorative differences could be found between hospitals. Despite this rather more complex and unusual approach to expectation-based experience typology, this concept offers the chance to change conditions not only retrospectively (based on data), but also in a prospective way in terms of a "management of expectations". Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

An empirical analysis of price expectations formation: Evidence from the crude oil reserves acquisitions market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vielhaber, L.M.

1991-01-01

Reasons for the recent scant empirical attention to price expectations theory are twofold. First, except for futures markets and the occasional expectations survey, price expectations are rarely documented. Second, results of empirical tests of rational expectations are fundamentally flawed by the subjective input of the researcher. Subjectivity taints the results of the test, first, in the form of model specification and, second, in the form of the identification of the relevant information set. This study addresses each of these shortcomings. First, crude oil price expectations are recovered in the market for reserves by using a standard engineering model commonly used in reserves evaluation. Second, the crude oil futures market is used to estimate an index of information. This index circumvents the need to subjectively identify the elements of the information set, removing a key source of subjective input. The results show that agents involved in the crude oil reserves acquisitions market form expectations of futures prices in a way that does not conform with the adaptive expectations model

Suggestibility and Expectancy in a Counseling Analogue

Science.gov (United States)

Kaul, Theodore J.; Parker, Clyde A.

1971-01-01

The data indicated that (a) subjectively experienced suggestibility was more closely related to attitude change than was objective suggestibility, and (b) the generalized expectancy treatments were ineffective in influencing different criterion scores. (Author)

Expected Term Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

We construct and study the cross-sectional properties of survey-based bond risk premia and compare them to their traditional statistical counterparts. We document large heterogeneity in skill, identify top forecasters, and learn about the importance of subjective risk premia in long-term bonds...... dynamics. The consensus is not a sufficient statistics of the cross-section of expectations and we propose an alternative real-time aggregate measure of risk premia consistent with Friedmans market selection hypothesis. We then use this measure to evaluate structural models and find support...

Predictions of dental pain: the fear of any expected evil, is worse than the evil itself.

Science.gov (United States)

Arntz, A; van Eck, M; Heijmans, M

1990-01-01

In a study of 40 subjects, who twice underwent extensive dental treatment, the relationships between expectations and experiences of pain and of anxiety were investigated. Inaccurate expectations were adjusted in the same way as observed in the laboratory. Especially anxious subjects expected more pain and anxiety than they experienced, and they appeared to need more experiences before their predictions became accurate. In the course of time, the expectations (and memories) of anxious subjects returned to their original more inaccurate level of prediction. The results suggest that the old schema is ultimately reinstated if disconfirmations are few and far between. Anxious subjects did not experience more pain, but they did experience more anxiety than fearless subjects. Detailed investigation of processes of change after disconfirmation showed that anxiety experienced during treatment is a factor that plays a part in maintaining the problem of inaccurate expectations and fear of treatment. Theoretical and clinical implications of these findings are discussed.

The upgraded JRR-3 and future scope of its utilization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyasaka, Yasuhiko; Umei, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Hidetake; Sakamoto, Masanobu

1985-10-01

At the time of start to construct the upgraded JRR-3, the present report describes general features on the upgraded JRR-3 and future scope of its utilization on the purpose of the mutual understanding with researchers who use the reactor and the utilization facilities. The materials edited in the report have been written by 28 reactor engineers and scientists in JAERI, and 35 scientists in universities. According to the reviewed subjects as shown below, it was confirmed that the upgraded JRR-3 would be extensively expected by much more fields. (1) Reactor and utilization facilities. 1. Plan and main features of the upgraded JRR-3, Reactor building 2. Irradiation facilities: Hydraulic rabbits, Pneumatic tubes, Rig Hot Cell, etc. 3. Neutron beam facilities: Horizontal tubes, Cold neutron source and Neutron guide tubes (2) Neutron beam experimental facilities. 1. Neutron diffractometer, neutron spectrometer, Small-angle neutron scattering, Neutron radiography, etc. (3) Recent trends. 1. Irradiation research of fuels and materials in research reactor 2. Activation analysis, Radioisotope, Neutron transmutation doping, etc. 3. Neutron scattering research. (author)

RTNS-II utilization plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zwilsky, Klaus M.

1978-09-01

This plan describes a general program for the effective utilization of this resource by the fusion materials community. Because its flux is low relative to levels expected in commercial fusion reactors, the RINS-II is not expected to produce data of direct engineering significance (with some exceptions). Rather, it will be used chiefly to aid in the development of models of high energy neutron effects. Such models are needed in projecting engineering data obtained in high flux fission reactors to the fusion environment. Fission reactors, because of their relatively soft neutron spectra, cannot produce the high ratio of transmutations to displacements (except in an important special case) or the high energy recoil atoms appropriate to fusion reactors utilizing the D-T reaction.

What characterises the expectations of gamblers?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Connie

the gamblers have erroneous thoughts of gambling, their subjective estimates of the return rates of the games, expected gains and motives of consumption and investment for playing. These aspects will help to create a picture of how rational the gamblers are and whether there are significant differences between...

Stolarsky's inequality for Choquet-like expectation

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

2016-01-01

Roč. 66, č. 5 (2016), s. 1235-1248 ISSN 0139-9918 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Choquet-like expectation * Stolarsky’s inequality * Minkowski’s inequality Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.346, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/mesiar-0469701.pdf

Why high-risk, non-expected-utility-maximising gambles can be rational and beneficial: the case of HIV cure studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchak, Lara

2017-02-01

Some early phase clinical studies of candidate HIV cure and remission interventions appear to have adverse medical risk-benefit ratios for participants. Why, then, do people participate? And is it ethically permissible to allow them to participate? Recent work in decision theory sheds light on both of these questions, by casting doubt on the idea that rational individuals prefer choices that maximise expected utility, and therefore by casting doubt on the idea that researchers have an ethical obligation not to enrol participants in studies with high risk-benefit ratios. This work supports the view that researchers should instead defer to the considered preferences of the participants themselves. This essay briefly explains this recent work, and then explores its application to these two questions in more detail. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Inflation expectations in the Czech interbank market

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Fukač, Martin

-, č. 253 (2005), s. 1-30 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation expectations * nominal interest rate * Fisher rule Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp253.pdf

Retirement expectations and satisfaction with retirement provisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Bresser, Jochem; van Soest, Arthur

This paper investigates the relationship between subjective expectations regarding the replacement rate of income at retirement and several measures of pension satisfaction. We use panel data on Dutch employees, analyzed with fixed effects models, allowing for correlation between unobserved

Framing effects in choices between multioutcome life-expectancy lotteries.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernstein, L M; Chapman, G B; Elstein, A S

1999-01-01

To explore framing or editing effects and a method to debias framing in a clinical context. Clinical scenarios using multioutcome life-expectancy lotteries of equal value required choices between two supplementary drugs that either prolonged or shortened life from the 20-year beneficial effect of a baseline drug. The effects of these supplementary drugs were presented in two conditions, using a between-subjects design. In segregated editing (n = 116) the effects were presented separately from the effects of the baseline drug. In integrated editing (n = 100), effects of supplementary and baseline drugs were combined in the lottery presentation. Each subject responded to 30 problems. To explore one method of debiasing, another 100 subjects made choices after viewing both segregated and integrated editings of 20 problems (dual framing). Statistically significant preference reversals between segregated and integrated editing of pure lotteries occurred only when one framing placed outcomes in the gain domain, and the other framing placed them in the loss domain. When both editings resulted in gain-domain outcomes only, there was no framing effect. There was a related relationship of framing-effect shifts from losses to gains in mixed-lottery-choice problems. Responses to the dual framing condition did not consistently coincide with responses to either single framing. In some situations, dual framing eliminated or lessened framing effects. The results support two components of prospect theory, coding outcomes as gains or losses from a reference point, and an s-shaped utility function (concave in gain, convex in loss domains). Presenting both alternative editings of a complex situation prior to choice more fully informs the decision maker and may help to reduce framing effects. Given the extent to which preferences shift in response to alternative presentations, it is unclear which choice represents the subject's "true preferences."

Pharmacy users' expectations of pharmacy encounters: a Q-methodological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Renberg, Tobias; Wichman Törnqvist, Kristina; Kälvemark Sporrong, Sofia; Kettis Lindblad, Asa; Tully, Mary P

2011-12-01

Pharmacy practice is evolving according to general health-care trends such as increased patient involvement and public health initiatives. In addition, pharmacists strive to find new professional roles. Clients' expectations of service encounters at pharmacies is an under-explored topic but crucial to understanding how pharmacy practice can evolve efficiently. To identify and describe different normative expectations of the pharmacy encounter among pharmacy clients. Q methodology, an approach to systematically explore subjectivity that retains complete patterns of responses and organizes these into factors of operant subjectivity. Eighty-five regular prescription medication users recruited at Swedish community pharmacies and by snowballing. Seven factors of operant subjectivity were identified, and organized into two groups. Factors that emphasized the physical drug product as the central object of the pharmacy encounter were labelled as independent drug shopping; logistics of drug distribution; and supply of individual's own drugs. Factors that emphasized personal support as desirable were labelled competence as individual support; individualist professional relations, just take care of me; and practical health-care and lifestyle support. The systematic Q-methodological approach yielded valuable insights into how pharmacy clients construct their expectations for service encounters. They hold differentiating normative expectations for pharmacy services. Understanding these varying viewpoints may be important for developing and prioritizing among efficient pharmacy services. Clients' expectations do not correspond with trends that guide current pharmacy practice development. This might be a challenge for promoting or implementing services based on such trends. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

[Expectations of hospital administrators about administrative functions of nurses].

Science.gov (United States)

Melo, M R; Fávero, N; Trevizan, M A; Hayashida, M

1996-01-01

The objective of the present study was to investigate hospital administrator's expectations about the administrative role played by nurses, utilizing functions proposed by the Neoclassical Theory of Administration: planning, organization, direction, and control as theoretical references. An instrument established in TREVIZAN (1989) was applied to 11 hospital administrators. The results showed they expect the four functions to be done by nurses. Therefore, the interaction between nurses and hospital administrators is critical to improve the patient's assistance.

Mox fuel utilization in ATR

OpenAIRE

下村 和生; 川太 徳夫

1987-01-01

ATR, a heavy-water moderated boiling-light-water cooled reactor developed in Japan, is a unique reactor with out-standing flexibility regarding nuclear fuel utilization, because it has superior properties concerning the utilization of plutonium, recovered uranium and depleted uranium. The development of this type of reactor is expected to contribute both to the stable supply of energy and to the establishment of plutonium utilization in Japan. Much effort has been and will be made on the deve...

The changing utility workforce and the evolution of utility design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saunders, A. [Autodesk Inc., (United States); Zeiss, G. [Autodesk Inc., (Canada)

2008-07-01

Electric utilities are experiencing an unprecedented workforce turnover as a wave of retirement approaches. The challenge for the industry is to mitigate the loss of industry knowledge and attract talented new designers and engineers. Utilities need to effectively transfer knowledge from an existing workforce with up to three decades of experience to their new hires who have very different skill levels as well as different expectations regarding design tools compared to their predecessors. Knowledge transfer from the retiring workforce to the new hires can be facilitated with rules-based design software. Easy-to-use design software with built-in validations can accelerate training. By investing in utility design software that incorporates the best elements of design processes from other industries, utilities can attract the new generation of engineers and designers to help utilities define new processes to upgrade existing infrastructure, bring online new distributed and renewable generation facilities, implement smart devices and meters, and improve customer service. 3 refs.

The dimensional salience solution to the expectancy-value muddle: an extension.

Science.gov (United States)

Newton, Joshua D; Newton, Fiona J; Ewing, Michael T

2014-01-01

The theory of reasoned action (TRA) specifies a set of expectancy-value, belief-based frameworks that underpin attitude (behavioural beliefs × outcome evaluations) and subjective norm (normative beliefs × motivation to comply). Unfortunately, the most common method for analysing these frameworks generates statistically uninterpretable findings, resulting in what has been termed the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Recently, however, a dimensional salience approach was found to resolve this muddle for the belief-based framework underpinning attitude. An online survey of 262 participants was therefore conducted to determine whether the dimensional salience approach could also be applied to the belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm. Results revealed that motivations to comply were greater for salient, as opposed to non-salient, social referents. The belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm was therefore represented by evaluating normative belief ratings for salient social referents. This modified framework was found to predict subjective norm, although predictions were greater when participants were forced to select five salient social referents rather than being free to select any number of social referents. These findings validate the use of the dimensional salience approach for examining the belief-based frameworks underpinning subjective norm. As such, this approach provides a complete solution to addressing the expectancy-value muddle in the TRA.

Managing reality shock: Expectations versus experiences of graduate engineers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Riordan

2007-10-01

Full Text Available The objective of the study is an analysis of the relationship between the work expectations and experiences of graduate engineers during their early career period. It reports on discrepancies in graduates’ expectations of the world of work and the reality of the early career stage. Conclusions include recommendations of how "reality shock" can be managed better by both organisations and individuals. Qualitative data were obtained through in-depth interviews with sixteen participants with less than five years work experience, employed in a large utility organisation in the Western Cape. Results indicate that participants experience significant incongruence between their expectations of work and work experiences.

Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Wei; Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

Utility and performance relative to consumer product energy efficiency standards. Final technical report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coggins, J.L.

1979-12-14

An investigation of the relative utility and performance of nine major household consumer products covered by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act is summarized. The objective was to define the terms utility and performance, to recommend methods for quantifying these two concepts, and to recommend an approach for dealing with utility and performance issues in the energy efficiency standards program. The definitions developed are: performance of a consumer product is the objective measure of how well, with the expected level of consumer input (following the manufacturer's instructions for installation and operation), the product does its intended job; and utility of a consumer product is a subjective measure, based on the consumer's perception, of the capability of the product to satisfy human needs. Quantification is based on test procedures and consumer survey methods which are largely already in use by industry. Utility and performance issues are important in product classification for prescribing energy efficiency standards. The recommended approach to utility and performance issues and classification is: prior to setting standards, evaluate utility and performance issues in the most quantitative way allowed by resources and schedules in order to develop classification guidelines. This approach requires no changes in existing Department of Energy test procedures.

An instrument to assess subjective task value beliefs regarding the decision to pursue postgraduate training.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagemeier, Nicholas E; Murawski, Matthew M

2014-02-12

To develop and validate an instrument to assess subjective ratings of the perceived value of various postgraduate training paths followed using expectancy-value as a theoretical framework; and to explore differences in value beliefs across type of postgraduate training pursued and type of pharmacy training completed prior to postgraduate training. A survey instrument was developed to sample 4 theoretical domains of subjective task value: intrinsic value, attainment value, utility value, and perceived cost. Retrospective self-report methodology was employed to examine respondents' (N=1,148) subjective task value beliefs specific to their highest level of postgraduate training completed. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analytic techniques were used to evaluate and validate value belief constructs. Intrinsic, attainment, utility, cost, and financial value constructs resulted from exploratory factor analysis. Cross-validation resulted in a 26-item instrument that demonstrated good model fit. Differences in value beliefs were noted across type of postgraduate training pursued and pharmacy training characteristics. The Postgraduate Training Value Instrument demonstrated evidence of reliability and construct validity. The survey instrument can be used to assess value beliefs regarding multiple postgraduate training options in pharmacy and potentially inform targeted recruiting of individuals to those paths best matching their own value beliefs.

Network approach for decision making under risk—How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing ‘goal’ and ‘time’ factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight. PMID:29702665

Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Pan

Full Text Available Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hommes, C.; Sonnemans, J.; Tuinstra, J.; van de Velden, H.

2008-01-01

We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset. The realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts. In most

On the Expected Value of Fuzzy Events

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Klement, E.P.; Mesiar, Radko

2015-01-01

Roč. 23, Supplement 1 (2015), s. 57-74 ISSN 0218-4885 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : expected value * fuzzy event * Choquet integral Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/E/mesiar-0452568.pdf

Why electric utilities and affiliates are handicapped in a partly regulated and partly competitive environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

St.Marie, S.M.

1999-11-01

As the electric utility industry continues to go through the process of restructuring, utilities are finding themselves operating not only as regulated entities but also as firms that compete for customers and sales. Some services, including services associated with distribution, are being unbundled or peeled off from the core of operations and, where possible, are being opened to competition. But these partly regulated and partly competitive areas are treacherous for utilities and their affiliates, who will be handicapped in their competitive efforts and subject to constraints not placed on their competitors. There are good reasons why such difficulties should be expected. And there are guidelines for pricing and competitive positioning that can assist in avoiding the worst problems. The first step is to recognize the archetypes of the regulated electric distribution utility and the competitive firm. In plotting their deregulation strategies, utilities and their affiliates must recognize that they will continue to be disadvantaged by regulators who are more concerned with keeping them in check than freeing them to compete.

Why electric utilities and affiliates are handicapped in a partly regulated and partly competitive environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

St Marie, S.M.

1999-01-01

As the electric utility industry continues to go through the process of restructuring, utilities are finding themselves operating not only as regulated entities but also as firms that compete for customers and sales. Some services, including services associated with distribution, are being unbundled or peeled off from the core of operations and, where possible, are being opened to competition. But these partly regulated and partly competitive areas are treacherous for utilities and their affiliates, who will be handicapped in their competitive efforts and subject to constraints not placed on their competitors. There are good reasons why such difficulties should be expected. And there are guidelines for pricing and competitive positioning that can assist in avoiding the worst problems. The first step is to recognize the archetypes of the regulated electric distribution utility and the competitive firm. In plotting their deregulation strategies, utilities and their affiliates must recognize that they will continue to be disadvantaged by regulators who are more concerned with keeping them in check than freeing them to compete

[Utilities: a solution of a decision problem?].

Science.gov (United States)

Koller, Michael; Ohmann, Christian; Lorenz, Wilfried

2008-01-01

Utility is a concept that originates from utilitarianism, a highly influential philosophical school in the Anglo-American world. The cornerstone of utilitarianism is the principle of maximum happiness or utility. In the medical sciences, this utility approach has been adopted and developed within the field of medical decision making. On an operational level, utility is the evaluation of a health state or an outcome on a one-dimensional scale ranging from 0 (death) to 1 (perfect health). By adding the concept of expectancy, the graphic representation of both concepts in a decision tree results in the specification of expected utilities and helps to resolve complex medical decision problems. Criticism of the utility approach relates to the rational perspective on humans (which is rejected by a considerable fraction of research in psychology) and to the artificial methods used in the evaluation of utility, such as Standard Gamble or Time Trade Off. These may well be the reason why the utility approach has never been accepted in Germany. Nevertheless, innovative concepts for defining goals in health care are urgently required, as the current debate in Germany on "Nutzen" (interestingly translated as 'benefit' instead of as 'utility') and integrated outcome models indicates. It remains to be seen whether this discussion will lead to a re-evaluation of the utility approach.

Illusory expectations can affect retrieval-monitoring accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

McDonough, Ian M; Gallo, David A

2012-03-01

The present study investigated how expectations, even when illusory, can affect the accuracy of memory decisions. Participants studied words presented in large or small font for subsequent memory tests. Replicating prior work, judgments of learning indicated that participants expected to remember large words better than small words, even though memory for these words was equivalent on a standard test of recognition memory and subjective judgments. Critically, we also included tests that instructed participants to selectively search memory for either large or small words, thereby allowing different memorial expectations to contribute to performance. On these tests we found reduced false recognition when searching memory for large words relative to small words, such that the size illusion paradoxically affected accuracy measures (d' scores) in the absence of actual memory differences. Additional evidence for the role of illusory expectations was that (a) the accuracy effect was obtained only when participants searched memory for the aspect of the stimuli corresponding to illusory expectations (size instead of color) and (b) the accuracy effect was eliminated on a forced-choice test that prevented the influence of memorial expectations. These findings demonstrate the critical role of memorial expectations in the retrieval-monitoring process. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Demystify Learning Expectations to Address Grade Inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Hodges, Linda C.

2014-01-01

This article describes the subject of "grade inflation," a reference to educators giving higher grades to student work than their expectations for student achievement warrant. Of the many reasons why this practice happens, Hodges specifically discusses inflating grades as "a natural consequence" when the faculty really…

Too good to be true: rhesus monkeys react negatively to better-than-expected offers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily J Knight

Full Text Available To succeed in a dynamically changing world, animals need to predict their environments. Humans, in fact, exhibit such a strong desire for consistency that one of the most well-established findings in social psychology is the effort people make to maintain consistency among their beliefs, attitudes, and behavior. However, displeasure with unpredictability leads to a potential paradox, because a positive outcome that exceeds one's expectations often leads to increased subjective value and positive affect, not the opposite. We tested the hypothesis that two evolutionarily-conserved evaluation processes underlie goal-directed behavior: (1 consistency, concerned with prediction errors, and (2 valuation, concerned with outcome utility. Rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta viewed a food item and then were offered an identical, better, or worse food, which they could accept or reject. The monkeys ultimately accepted all offers, attesting to the influence of the valuation process. However, they were slower to accept the unexpected offers, and they exhibited aversive reactions, especially to the better-than-expected offers, repeatedly turning their heads and looking away before accepting the food item. Our findings (a provide evidence for two separable evaluation processes in primates, consistency and value assessment, (b reveal a direct relationship between consistency assessment and emotional processes, and (c show that our wariness with events that are much better than expected is shared with other social primates.

A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

2004-09-01

The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

An elicitation of utility for quality of life under prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; l'Haridon, Olivier; Pinto, Jose Luis

2016-07-01

This paper performs several tests of decision analysis applied to the health domain. First, we conduct a test of the normative expected utility theory. Second, we investigate the possibility to elicit the more general prospect theory. We observe risk aversion for gains and losses and violations of expected utility. These results imply that mechanisms governing decisions in the health domain are similar to those in the monetary domain. However, we also report one important deviation: utility is universally concave for the health outcomes used in this study, in contrast to the commonly found S-shaped utility for monetary outcomes, with concave utility for gains and convex utility for losses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Professional Development in Integrated STEM Education on Teacher Self-Efficacy, Outcome Expectancy, and Stem Career Awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Knowles, J. Geoff

This research analyzed the effects of teacher professional development and lesson implementation in integrated Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) on: 1.) Teacher self-efficacy and their confidence to teach specific STEM subjects; 2.) Teaching outcome expectancy beliefs concerning the impact of actions by teachers on student learning; and 3.) Teacher awareness of STEM careers. High school science and technology education teachers participating in the Teachers and Researchers Advancing Integrated Lessons in STEM (TRAILS) project experimental group attended a ten-day summer professional development institute designed to educate teachers in using an integrated STEM education model to implement integrated STEM lessons. The research design utilized a quasi-experimental nonequivalent comparison group design that incorporated an experimental group and an untreated comparison group with both pretest, posttest, and delayed posttest assessments on non-randomized participants. Teacher self-efficacy has been identified as a key factor in effective teaching and student learning, and teacher awareness of STEM careers impacts students as they consider career choices. The T-STEM Survey for teachers was given for the pretest and posttest assessments to measure attitudes and beliefs toward the specific constructs of this study. Significant effects of the TRAILS professional development were found in the teacher group (experimental or comparison) and teacher subject (technology or science) in pretest and posttest scores using cumulative link models for the constructs of teacher self-efficacy and beliefs to teach STEM subjects, teacher outcome expectancy beliefs, and teacher awareness of STEM careers. Effect sizes ranged from small to large varying by construct and assessment time. Highly significant p-values and effect sizes revealed impacts on science teachers were greater when teacher subject groups were analyzed separately.

Placebo expectancy effects in the relationship between glucose and cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, M W; Taylor, M A; Elliman, N A; Rhodes, O

2001-08-01

The present study investigated the extent of expectancy in the ability of glucose to affect cognitive performance. Using a within-subjects design, subjects (n 26) completed four experimental sessions (in counterbalanced order and after an initial practice session) during which they were given a 500 ml drink 30 min prior to completing a cognitive assessment battery. In addition, all subjects completed a baseline practice session during which they were given no drink. During two of the sessions, subjects were given a drink containing 50 g glucose and on the other two they were given a drink containing aspartame. A balanced placebo design was used, such that for half the sessions subjects were accurately informed as to the content of the drink (glucose or aspartame), whereas in the other two sessions they were misinformed as to the content of the drink. The task battery comprised a 6 min visual analogue of the Bakan vigilance task, an immediate verbal free-recall task, an immediate verbal recognition memory task and a measure of motor speed (two-finger tapping). Blood glucose and self-reported mood were also recorded at several time points during each session. Glucose administration was found to improve recognition memory times, in direct contrast to previous findings in the literature. Glucose administration also improved performance on the Bakan task (relative to the control drink), but only in sessions where subjects were informed that they would receive glucose and not when they were told that they would receive aspartame. There were no effects either of the nature of the drink or expectancy on the other measures. These results are interpreted in terms of there being some contribution of expectancy concerning the positive effects of glucose on cognition in studies which have not used an equi-sweet dose of aspartame as a control drink.

Effects of Evaluation Expectation on Artistic Creativity.

Science.gov (United States)

Amabile, Teresa M.

Conditions are examined under which the imposition of an extrinsic constraint upon performance of an activity can lead to decrements in creativity. Female college students worked on an art activity either with or without the expectation of external evaluation. In addition, subjects were asked to focus upon either the creative or the technical…

Strategic Risk Management Behavior: What Can Utility Functions Tell Us

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

2004-01-01

Abstract The validity of the utility concept, particularly in an expected utility framework, has been questioned because of its inability to predict revealed behavior. In this paper we focus on the global shape of the utility function instead of the local shape of the utility function. We examine

Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...

Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

Science.gov (United States)

Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

2017-06-01

Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

An examination of coping styles and expectations for whiplash injury in Germany: comparison with Canadian data.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, Robert; Pieschl, Stephanie

2011-09-01

Cross-sectional cohort study: to examine concurrent expectations and coping style for whiplash injury in injury-naive subjects in Germany. Studies suggest the recovery rate from whiplash injury may be faster in Germany than in Canada. Canadians have a high expectation for chronic pain following whiplash injury and Germans do not. Expectation of recovery not only predicts recovery in whiplash victims but is also known to correlate with coping style. The Vanderbilt Pain Management Inventory was administered to university students and staff in Germany. Subjects who had not yet experienced whiplash injury were given a vignette concerning a neck sprain (whiplash injury) in a motor vehicle collision and were asked to indicate how likely they were to have thoughts or behaviours indicated in the coping style questionnaire. Subjects also completed expectation questionnaires regarding whiplash injury. Sixteen percent of subjects held an expectation of chronic neck or back pain after whiplash injury. The mean active coping style score was 27.4±3.6 (40 is the maximum score for active coping). The mean passive coping style score was 27.0±6.3 (50 is the maximum score for passive coping). Coping style scores and patterns were not different from those previously observed in Canadian studies, but there was no correlation between expectations and coping style among German subjects, a finding that differs from Canadian studies. Although expectations and coping styles may interact or be co-modifiers in the outcomes of whiplash injury in Canadian whiplash victims, in Germany, despite having similar coping styles to Canadians, the lack of expectation for chronic pain may be protective from the effect of passive coping styles. Further studies of coping style as an aetiologic factor in the chronic whiplash syndrome are needed.

College Students' Motivation toward Weight Training: An Application of Expectancy-Value Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Zan; Xiang, Ping

2008-01-01

Guided by an expectancy-value model of achievement choice (Eccles et al., 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000), the relationships among expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values (importance, interest, and usefulness), and achievement outcomes (intention, engagement, and performance) were examined in a college-level beginning weight training…

Effects of Teacher Expectancies: Myth or Reality?

Science.gov (United States)

Aron, Robert; And Others

This study manipulates the variables of children's ethnicity, sex, and ability to ascertain the nature of the interaction relationship between teacher expectancies and student performance. The subjects were urban teachers who were asked to read case histories and then rate the child on a Likert-type family and pupil behavior rating form and a…

Multiattribute Fixed-State Utility Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

1981-03-27

of a companion distribution, are presented in Appendix A. Because of the theory of conditional expected utility and the modelling of the utilities by...obtain approximations to the moments, using the companion V ) ) distribution discussed in Section 3. The moments of both distributions are discussed...1956b, 21, 207-216. Slavic, P. "From Shakespeare to Simon: Speculation -- and some evidence -- about man’s ability to process information." O g . a

Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on the Retail Trade Sector Using Survey Data from Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Puah, Chin-Hong; Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun; Jais, Mohamad

2011-01-01

The rational expectations hypothesis states that when people are expecting things to happen, using the available information, the predicted outcomes usually occur. This study utilized survey data provided by the Business Expectations Survey of Limited Companies to test whether forecasts of the Malaysian retail sector, based on gross revenue and capital expenditures, are rational. The empirical evidence illustrates that the decision-makers expectations in the retail sector are biased and too o...

Advancing the expectancy concept via the interplay between theory and research.

Science.gov (United States)

Del Boca, Frances K; Darkes, Jack; Goldman, Mark S; Smith, Gregory T

2002-06-01

Four papers from a 2001 Research Society on Alcoholism symposium on expectancy theory and research are summarized. The symposium contributors describe recent advances in expectancy theory and discuss their implications for assessment and for understanding the processes of development and change in the behavioral domain of alcohol use. First, findings are integrated across the diverse domains in which the expectancy concept has been applied. Second, the implications of expectancy theory for the measurement of expectancy structure and process are examined. Third, research and theory regarding alcohol expectancy development and change are presented, with an emphasis on the role of expectancies as mediators of known antecedents of drinking. Finally, an experimental procedure for investigating the causal role of expectancies is described, together with its implications for theory testing and prevention or intervention programming. Collectively, the symposium contributions demonstrate the utility of an integrated expectancy theory for the generation of innovative research operations and new insights regarding behavior development and change. Consistent with the notion of consilience, expectancy theory has demonstrated a convergence of findings across different levels of analysis, as well as across different operations, methods, and research designs.

Patients' and parents' expectations of orthodontic treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hiemstra, Renske; Bos, Annemieke; Hoogstraten, Johan

2009-12-01

To investigate the expectations of children and their primary care-givers towards orthodontic treatment and to compare the results with those of a UK sample. A questionnaire survey of children and their primary care-givers attending for their first consultation. The Department of Orthodontics at the Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), the Netherlands. A total of 168 subjects (84 patients and 84 parents) completed the questionnaire. The children were aged 10 to 14 years. The responses of the children and parents and differences between boys and girls were examined using parametric statistical methods. The data from the Dutch sample were compared with a similar UK sample. Patients and parents shared similar expectations of orthodontic treatment, with the exception of expectations of having a brace fitted at the first appointment, orthodontic treatment involving headgear, any problems with orthodontic treatment, duration of orthodontic treatment and concerning reactions from the public. Among the child participants, boys and girls only differed in their expectations of orthodontic treatment involving jaw surgery. Differences between Dutch and English participants were found regarding the first visit, type of orthodontic treatment, reactions from the public, and pain and problems with orthodontic treatment. Since the expectations of patients and their parents differ on several aspects, effective communication between the orthodontist, patient and parent is considered to be essential. Our hypothesis that Dutch patients' and parents' expectations of orthodontic treatment differ from the expectations of English patients and parents was supported.

A cross-cultural comparison between Canada and Germany of symptom expectation for whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, Robert; Lang, Christoph

2005-02-01

Symptom expectation for whiplash injury has been shown to be low in countries with low rates of chronic whiplash when compared with countries like Canada, where chronic whiplash is common. The objective of the current study is to compare the frequency and nature of expected "whiplash" symptoms in Germany with that in Canada. A symptom checklist was administered to two subject groups selected from local companies in Germany and Canada. Subjects were asked to imagine having suffered a neck sprain (whiplash injury) with no loss of consciousness in a motor vehicle collision and to check which, of a variety of symptoms, they would expect might arise from the injury. For symptoms they anticipated, they were asked to select the period of time they expected those symptoms to persist. In both groups, the pattern of acute symptoms anticipated closely resembled the symptoms of acute whiplash victims, but 50% of Canadians also anticipated symptoms to last months or years, whereas few German subjects selected any symptoms as likely to persist. In Germany, despite the documented occurrence of neck sprain symptoms in individuals following motor vehicle collisions, there is a very low rate of expectation of any sequelae from this injury. The current or previous aspects of society that underlie this remain uncertain. This lack of expectation of chronicity in Germany may, in part, determine the low prevalence of the chronic whiplash syndrome there. Further studies of symptom expectation as an etiologic factor in the chronic whiplash syndrome are needed.

The prediction of drug dependence from expectancy for hostility while intoxicated.

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, D; Nagoshi, C; Muntaner, C; Haertzen, C A

1990-10-01

Three hundred seventy-one male substance-abusing volunteers for drug studies were administered the Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory (B-D). One hundred nineteen of these subjects were readministered the B-D with the instruction to answer the items in terms of their behavior while drinking alcohol, with 67 of these subjects also completing a heroin use condition. Expectancies for hostility under alcohol or heroin were generally uncorrelated with other measures of personality, psychopathology, antisocial personality, impulsiveness, or criminality; but expectancies for hostility under alcohol were predictive of diagnoses of alcohol, opioid, and marijuana abuse and dependence over and above the influence of these other measures.

49 CFR 218.22 - Utility employee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Utility employee. 218.22 Section 218.22... employee. (a) A utility employee shall be subject to the Hours of Service Act, and the requirements for... parts 217, 219, and 228 of this chapter. (b) A utility employee shall perform service as a member of...

Subjective knowledge and fear appeal effectiveness: implications for message design.

Science.gov (United States)

Nabi, Robin L; Roskos-Ewoldsen, David; Carpentier, Francesca Dillman

2008-01-01

This research investigates the role of perceived health knowledge on the effectiveness of fear-based persuasive appeals. Undergraduates (N = 263) read a strong fear, weak fear, or efficacy-only message encouraging breast or testicular self-examination. As expected, results indicated that men high in subjective knowledge were less reactant and more persuaded by the efficacy-only message whereas those low in subjective knowledge did not evidence this pattern. Contrary to expectation, women high in subjective knowledge had comparable reactions to each of the 3 messages. Implications for fear appeal theory and message design are discussed.

Examining the Feasibility and Utility of Estimating Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information (via a Nonparametric Approach) as Part of the Reimbursement Decision-Making Process in Ireland: Application to Drugs for Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

McCullagh, Laura; Schmitz, Susanne; Barry, Michael; Walsh, Cathal

2017-11-01

In Ireland, all new drugs for which reimbursement by the healthcare payer is sought undergo a health technology assessment by the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics. The National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics estimate expected value of perfect information but not partial expected value of perfect information (owing to computational expense associated with typical methodologies). The objective of this study was to examine the feasibility and utility of estimating partial expected value of perfect information via a computationally efficient, non-parametric regression approach. This was a retrospective analysis of evaluations on drugs for cancer that had been submitted to the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics (January 2010 to December 2014 inclusive). Drugs were excluded if cost effective at the submitted price. Drugs were excluded if concerns existed regarding the validity of the applicants' submission or if cost-effectiveness model functionality did not allow required modifications to be made. For each included drug (n = 14), value of information was estimated at the final reimbursement price, at a threshold equivalent to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at that price. The expected value of perfect information was estimated from probabilistic analysis. Partial expected value of perfect information was estimated via a non-parametric approach. Input parameters with a population value at least €1 million were identified as potential targets for research. All partial estimates were determined within minutes. Thirty parameters (across nine models) each had a value of at least €1 million. These were categorised. Collectively, survival analysis parameters were valued at €19.32 million, health state utility parameters at €15.81 million and parameters associated with the cost of treating adverse effects at €6.64 million. Those associated with drug acquisition costs and with the cost of care were valued at €6.51 million and €5.71�

Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as ...

PEM-PCA: A Parallel Expectation-Maximization PCA Face Recognition Architecture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kanokmon Rujirakul

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Principal component analysis or PCA has been traditionally used as one of the feature extraction techniques in face recognition systems yielding high accuracy when requiring a small number of features. However, the covariance matrix and eigenvalue decomposition stages cause high computational complexity, especially for a large database. Thus, this research presents an alternative approach utilizing an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to reduce the determinant matrix manipulation resulting in the reduction of the stages’ complexity. To improve the computational time, a novel parallel architecture was employed to utilize the benefits of parallelization of matrix computation during feature extraction and classification stages including parallel preprocessing, and their combinations, so-called a Parallel Expectation-Maximization PCA architecture. Comparing to a traditional PCA and its derivatives, the results indicate lower complexity with an insignificant difference in recognition precision leading to high speed face recognition systems, that is, the speed-up over nine and three times over PCA and Parallel PCA.

PEM-PCA: a parallel expectation-maximization PCA face recognition architecture.

Science.gov (United States)

Rujirakul, Kanokmon; So-In, Chakchai; Arnonkijpanich, Banchar

2014-01-01

Principal component analysis or PCA has been traditionally used as one of the feature extraction techniques in face recognition systems yielding high accuracy when requiring a small number of features. However, the covariance matrix and eigenvalue decomposition stages cause high computational complexity, especially for a large database. Thus, this research presents an alternative approach utilizing an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to reduce the determinant matrix manipulation resulting in the reduction of the stages' complexity. To improve the computational time, a novel parallel architecture was employed to utilize the benefits of parallelization of matrix computation during feature extraction and classification stages including parallel preprocessing, and their combinations, so-called a Parallel Expectation-Maximization PCA architecture. Comparing to a traditional PCA and its derivatives, the results indicate lower complexity with an insignificant difference in recognition precision leading to high speed face recognition systems, that is, the speed-up over nine and three times over PCA and Parallel PCA.

Praying for Mr. Right? Religion, Family Background, and Marital Expectations among College Women

Science.gov (United States)

Ellison, Christopher G.; Burdette, Amy M.; Glenn, Norval D.

2011-01-01

This study explores the relationship between multiple aspects of religious involvement--affiliation, church attendance, subjective religiosity--and marital expectations among college women. In addition, the authors investigate whether religious involvement mediates the link between family background and marital expectations. These issues are…

Computational-Model-Based Analysis of Context Effects on Harmonic Expectancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Morimoto, Satoshi; Remijn, Gerard B; Nakajima, Yoshitaka

2016-01-01

Expectancy for an upcoming musical chord, harmonic expectancy, is supposedly based on automatic activation of tonal knowledge. Since previous studies implicitly relied on interpretations based on Western music theory, the underlying computational processes involved in harmonic expectancy and how it relates to tonality need further clarification. In particular, short chord sequences which cannot lead to unique keys are difficult to interpret in music theory. In this study, we examined effects of preceding chords on harmonic expectancy from a computational perspective, using stochastic modeling. We conducted a behavioral experiment, in which participants listened to short chord sequences and evaluated the subjective relatedness of the last chord to the preceding ones. Based on these judgments, we built stochastic models of the computational process underlying harmonic expectancy. Following this, we compared the explanatory power of the models. Our results imply that, even when listening to short chord sequences, internally constructed and updated tonal assumptions determine the expectancy of the upcoming chord.

Increased healthcare service utilizations for patients with dementia: a population-based study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shiu-Dong Chung

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The majority of previous studies investigating the health care utilization of people with dementia were conducted in Western societies. There is little information on the economic burden on the healthcare system attributable to dementia in Asian countries. This study thus investigated differences in utilization of healthcare services between subjects with and those without a diagnosis of dementia using Taiwan's National Health Insurance population-based database. METHODS: This study comprised 5,666 subjects with a dementia diagnosis and 5,666 age- and gender-matched comparison subjects without a dementia diagnosis. We individually followed each subject for a 1-year period starting from their index date to evaluate their healthcare resource utilization. Healthcare resource utilization included the number of outpatient visits and inpatient days, and the mean costs of outpatient and inpatient treatments. In addition, we divided healthcare resource utilization into psychiatric and non-psychiatric services. RESULTS: As for utilization of psychiatric services, subjects with a dementia diagnosis had significantly more outpatient visits (2.2 vs. 0.3, p<0.001 and significantly higher outpatient costs (US$124 vs. US$16, p<0.001 than comparison subjects. For non-psychiatric services, subjects with a dementia diagnosis also had significantly more outpatient visits (34.4 vs. 31.6, p<0.001 and significantly higher outpatient costs (US$1754 vs. US$1322, p<0.001 than comparison subjects. For all healthcare services, subjects with a dementia diagnosis had significantly more outpatient visits (36.7 vs. 32.0, p<0.001 and significantly higher outpatient costs (US$1878 vs. US$1338, p<0.001 than comparison subjects. Furthermore, the total cost was about 2-fold greater for subjects with a dementia diagnosis than for comparison subjects (US$3997 vs. US$2409, p<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that subjects who had received a clinical dementia diagnosis had

Sex differences in subjective distress to unfaithfulness: testing competing evolutionary and violation of infidelity expectations hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Cramer, Robert Ervin; Lipinski, Ryan E; Meteer, John D; Houska, Jeremy Ashton

2008-08-01

According to an evolutionary psychology perspective, men's and women's processing of threats to their sex-linked mate selection strategies cause sex differences in infidelity distress. An alternative account assumes that the distress results from men's and women's processing of expectation violations regarding the content of an unfaithful partner's actions with a rival. Logistic regressions supported the conclusion that the participant's sex-but not the processing of expectation violations-was the best predictor of the most distressing infidelity presented in forced-choice, mutually exclusive, and combined formats. Our results also indicated that the sex differences in infidelity distress were neither limited to using data from a forced-choice response format nor caused by the distinct inferences that men and women draw about the relation between love and sex.

The causal structure of utility conditionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnefon, Jean-François; Sloman, Steven A

2013-01-01

The psychology of reasoning is increasingly considering agents' values and preferences, achieving greater integration with judgment and decision making, social cognition, and moral reasoning. Some of this research investigates utility conditionals, ''if p then q'' statements where the realization of p or q or both is valued by some agents. Various approaches to utility conditionals share the assumption that reasoners make inferences from utility conditionals based on the comparison between the utility of p and the expected utility of q. This article introduces a new parameter in this analysis, the underlying causal structure of the conditional. Four experiments showed that causal structure moderated utility-informed conditional reasoning. These inferences were strongly invited when the underlying structure of the conditional was causal, and significantly less so when the underlying structure of the conditional was diagnostic. This asymmetry was only observed for conditionals in which the utility of q was clear, and disappeared when the utility of q was unclear. Thus, an adequate account of utility-informed inferences conditional reasoning requires three components: utility, probability, and causal structure. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Modifier words in the financial press and investor expectations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosman, Ronald; Kräussl, Roman; Mirgorodskaya, Elizaveta

2017-01-01

We experimentally investigate the priming effect of modifier words in the news media by looking at how different formulation of news affects investor expectations and beliefs. We asked subjects to estimate the future stock price for twelve real (anonymous) listed companies. They received information

Effectiveness of a Marijuana Expectancy Manipulation: Piloting the Balanced-Placebo Design for Marijuana

OpenAIRE

Metrik, Jane; Rohsenow, Damaris J.; Monti, Peter M.; McGeary, John; Cook, Travis A. R.; de Wit, Harriet; Haney, Margaret; Kahler, Christopher W.

2009-01-01

Although alcohol and nicotine administration studies have demonstrated that manipulating subjects’ expectancies regarding drug content affects drug response, research with marijuana has not adequately studied drug expectancy effects. The present pilot study was the first to evaluate the credibility and effect of expectancy manipulation on subjective measures and smoking patterns using a marijuana administration balanced-placebo design (BPD). In a 2 × 2 instructional set (told delta-9-tetrahyd...

Subjective evaluation of HEVC in mobile devices

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Ray; Kalva, Hari

2013-03-01

Mobile compute environments provide a unique set of user needs and expectations that designers must consider. With increased multimedia use in mobile environments, video encoding methods within the smart phone market segment are key factors that contribute to positive user experience. Currently available display resolutions and expected cellular bandwidth are major factors the designer must consider when determining which encoding methods should be supported. The desired goal is to maximize the consumer experience, reduce cost, and reduce time to market. This paper presents a comparative evaluation of the quality of user experience when HEVC and AVC/H.264 video coding standards were used. The goal of the study was to evaluate any improvements in user experience when using HEVC. Subjective comparisons were made between H.264/AVC and HEVC encoding standards in accordance with Doublestimulus impairment scale (DSIS) as defined by ITU-R BT.500-13. Test environments are based on smart phone LCD resolutions and expected cellular bit rates, such as 200kbps and 400kbps. Subjective feedback shows both encoding methods are adequate at 400kbps constant bit rate. However, a noticeable consumer experience gap was observed for 200 kbps. Significantly less H.264 subjective quality is noticed with video sequences that have multiple objects moving and no single point of visual attraction. Video sequences with single points of visual attraction or few moving objects tended to have higher H.264 subjective quality.

On deciding to have a lobotomy: either lobotomies were justified or decisions under risk should not always seek to maximise expected utility.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Rachel

2014-02-01

In the 1940s and 1950s thousands of lobotomies were performed on people with mental disorders. These operations were known to be dangerous, but thought to offer great hope. Nowadays, the lobotomies of the 1940s and 1950s are widely condemned. The consensus is that the practitioners who employed them were, at best, misguided enthusiasts, or, at worst, evil. In this paper I employ standard decision theory to understand and assess shifts in the evaluation of lobotomy. Textbooks of medical decision making generally recommend that decisions under risk are made so as to maximise expected utility (MEU) I show that using this procedure suggests that the 1940s and 1950s practice of psychosurgery was justifiable. In making sense of this finding we have a choice: Either we can accept that psychosurgery was justified, in which case condemnation of the lobotomists is misplaced. Or, we can conclude that the use of formal decision procedures, such as MEU, is problematic.

[Patterns of utilization of external employee assistance program--analysis of employees who have their psychiatrists].

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, H; Fujii, K; Sasaki, Y

1998-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to clarify some patterns of utilization of an external employee assistance program (EAP) we have conducted for other public and private facilities in the Tokyo Kenbikyoin Foundation between April, 1986 and December, 1996. The subjects were 26 men and 12 women in 7 facilities under the following conditions: (1) Employees who have already had their own psychiatrists at the first interview of the external EAP; (2) Facilities utilize the EAP for two or more employees who met the first criterion. As a result, utilization patterns differed depending on medical staff's attitude toward the external EAP. There was a significant difference according to sex. The rate for men was 54% in worksites where medical staff understood this external program (worksite A1) and 93% in worksites where they did not (worksite A2-3, B). As to expectations for the program, there were more consultations for organizational measurements (63%) in worksite A1, while less organizational matters (27%) and more personal complains about their psychiatrists in the worksite A2-3, and B. These results suggest that the involvement of medical staff is the key to utilizing the external EAP effectively.

Use of Groundwater Lifetime Expectancy for the Performance Assessment of Deep Geologic Radioactive Waste Repositories.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornaton, F.; Park, Y.; Normani, S.; Sudicky, E.; Sykes, J.

2005-12-01

Long-term solutions for the disposal of toxic wastes usually involve isolation of the wastes in a deep subsurface geologic environment. In the case of spent nuclear fuel, the safety of the host repository depends on two main barriers: the engineered barrier and the natural geological barrier. If radionuclide leakage occurs from the engineered barrier, the geological medium represents the ultimate barrier that is relied upon to ensure safety. Consequently, an evaluation of radionuclide travel times from the repository to the biosphere is critically important in a performance assessment analysis. In this study, we develop a travel time framework based on the concept of groundwater lifetime expectancy as a safety indicator. Lifetime expectancy characterizes the time radionuclides will spend in the subsurface after their release from the repository and prior to discharging into the biosphere. The probability density function of lifetime expectancy is computed throughout the host rock by solving the backward-in-time solute transport equation subject to a properly posed set of boundary conditions. It can then be used to define optimal repository locations. In a second step, the risk associated with selected sites can be evaluated by simulating an appropriate contaminant release history. The proposed methodology is applied in the context of a typical Canadian Shield environment. Based on a statistically-generated three-dimension network of fracture zones embedded in the granitic host rock, the sensitivity and the uncertainty of lifetime expectancy to the hydraulic and dispersive properties of the fracture network, including the impact of conditioning via their surface expressions, is computed in order to demonstrate the utility of the methodology.

Paradox-Proof Utility Functions for Heavy-Tailed Payoffs: Two Instructive Two-Envelope Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R. Powers

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We identify restrictions on a decision maker’s utility function that are both necessary and sufficient to preserve dominance reasoning in each of two versions of the Two-Envelope Paradox (TEP. For the classical TEP, the utility function must satisfy a certain recurrence inequality. For the St. Petersburg TEP, the utility function must be bounded above asymptotically by a power function, which can be tightened to a constant. By determining the weakest conditions for dominance reasoning to hold, the article settles an open question in the research literature. Remarkably, neither constant-bounded utility nor finite expected utility is necessary for resolving the classical TEP; instead, finite expected utility is both necessary and sufficient for resolving the St. Petersburg TEP.

Expectation requires treatment to boost pain relief: an fMRI study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schenk, Lieven A; Sprenger, Christian; Geuter, Stephan; Büchel, Christian

2014-01-01

We investigated the effect of a possible interaction between topical analgesic treatment and treatment expectation on pain at the behavioral and neuronal level by combining topical lidocaine/prilocaine treatment with an expectancy manipulation in a 2 by 2 within-subject design (open treatment, hidden treatment, placebo, control). Thirty-two healthy subjects received heat pain stimuli on capsaicin-pretreated skin and rated their experienced pain during functional magnetic resonance imaging. This allowed us to separate drug- and expectancy-related effects at the behavioral and neuronal levels and to test whether they interact during the processing of painful stimuli. Pain ratings were reduced during active treatment and were associated with reduced activity in the anterior insular cortex. Pain ratings were lower in open treatment compared with hidden treatment and were related to reduced activity in the anterior insular cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, the secondary somatosensory cortex, and the thalamus. Testing for an interaction revealed that the expectation effect was significantly larger in the active treatment conditions compared with the no-treatment conditions and was associated with signal changes in the anterior insular cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the ventral striatum. In conclusion, this study shows that even in the case of a topical analgesic, expectation interacts with treatment at the level of pain ratings and neuronal responses in placebo-related brain regions. Our results are highly relevant in the clinical context as they show (i) that expectation can boost treatment and (ii) that expectation and treatment are not necessarily additive as assumed in placebo-controlled clinical trials. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Rational Expectations Hypothesis: An assessment on its real world application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Santiago Tobón

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The Rational Expectations Hypothesis was first developed as a theoretical technique aimed at explaining agents’ behavior in a given environment. In particular, it describes how the outcome of a given economic phenomenon depends to a certain degree on what agents expect to happen. Subsequently, it was introduced into macroeconomic models as a way to explain the ineffectiveness of monetary policy. Since then, most of these models have been based on the rational expectations assumption. This paper assesses the real life application of this feature based on two arguments: the determination of an objective reality through beliefs and subjective expectations; and the exclusion of the evolution of human knowledge and innovation in macroeconomic models.

The effects of alcohol expectancy and intake on slot machine gambling behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Sagoe, Dominic; Mentzoni, Rune Aune; Leino, Tony; Molde, Helge; Haga, Sondre; Gjernes, Mikjel Fredericson; Hanss, Daniel; Pallesen, Ståle

2017-06-01

Background and aims Although alcohol intake and gambling often co-occur in related venues, there is conflicting evidence regarding the effects of alcohol expectancy and intake on gambling behavior. We therefore conducted an experimental investigation of the effects of alcohol expectancy and intake on slot machine gambling behavior. Methods Participants were 184 (females = 94) individuals [age range: 18-40 (mean = 21.9) years] randomized to four independent conditions differing in information/expectancy about beverage (told they received either alcohol or placebo) and beverage intake [actually ingesting low (target blood alcohol concentration [BAC]  0.40 mg/L; ≈0.80 mg/L) amounts of alcohol]. All participants completed self-report questionnaires assessing demographic variables, subjective intoxication, alcohol effects (stimulant and sedative), and gambling factors (behavior and problems, evaluation, and beliefs). Participants also gambled on a simulated slot machine. Results A significant main effect of beverage intake on subjective intoxication and alcohol effects was detected as expected. No significant main or interaction effects were detected for number of gambling sessions, bet size and variation, remaining credits at termination, reaction time, and game evaluation. Conclusion Alcohol expectancy and intake do not affect gambling persistence, dissipation of funds, reaction time, or gambling enjoyment.

Beyond Bentham – Measuring Procedural Utility

OpenAIRE

Bruno S. Frey; Alois Stutzer

2001-01-01

We propose that outcome utility and process utility can be distinguished and empirically measured. People gain procedural utility from participating in the political decision-making process itself, irrespective of the outcome. Nationals enjoy both outcome and process utility, while foreigners are excluded from political decision-making and therefore cannot enjoy the corresponding procedural utility. Utility is measured by individuals’ reported subjective well-being or happiness. We find tha...

The Effects of Objective and Subjective Socioeconomic Status on Subjective Well-Being among Rural-to-Urban Migrants in China: The Moderating Role of Subjective Social Mobility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silin Huang

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Although previous investigations have agreed that Chinese rural-to-urban migrants’ socioeconomic status (SES increases with their migration, the association between SES and subjective well-being is uncertain. To address this research gap, the present study proposed that the association between objective SES and subjective well-being is mediated by subjective SES. This model was tested with a sample of 432 Chinese rural-to-urban migrants. The results indicate a significant association between objective SES and subjective well-being and a partial mediating effect of subjective SES. Furthermore, subjective social mobility, which is one’s expectation about the possibility to move upward in the social hierarchy, was found to moderate both the direct path from objective SES to subjective well-being and the indirect path from subjective SES to subjective well-being. These findings suggest that Chinese rural-to-urban migrants gained in subjective well-being not only because of direct financial achievement but also because of their perceptions and beliefs about their relative social status.

The mediating role of parental expectations in culture and well-being.

Science.gov (United States)

Oishi, Shigehiro; Sullivan, Helen W

2005-10-01

In two studies, we examined the role of perceived fulfillment of parental expectations in the subjective well-being of college students. In Study 1, we found that American college students reported having higher levels of life satisfaction and self-esteem than did Japanese college students. American college students also reported having fulfilled parental expectations to a greater degree than did Japanese college students. Most importantly, the cultural difference in well-being was mediated by perceived fulfillment of parental expectations. In Study 2, we replicated the mediational finding with Asian American and European American college students. Asian American participants also perceived their parents' expectations about their academic performance to be more specific than did European Americans, which was associated with the cultural difference in perceived fulfillment of parental expectations. In short, perceived parental expectations play an important role in the cultural difference in the well-being of Asians and European Americans.

Motivation, expectations and the gender pay gap for UK graduates

OpenAIRE

Arnaud Chevalier

2004-01-01

Focussing on recent UK graduates, a wage gap of 12% is found. The unexplained component of the gap is small and a large fraction of the gap can be explained by subject choice, job characteristics, motivation and expectation variables. Motivation and expectations account for 44% of the explained gap, thus most studies over-estimate the unexplained component of the gender wage gap. Following stereotypes, women tend to be more altruistic and less career oriented than men, character traits that a...

The changing utility workforce and the emergence of building information modeling in utilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saunders, A. [Autodesk Inc., San Rafael, CA (United States)

2010-07-01

Utilities are faced with the extensive replacement of a workforce that is now reaching retirement age. New personnel will have varying skill levels and different expectations in relation to design tools. This paper discussed methods of facilitating knowledge transfer from the retiring workforce to new staff using rules-based design software. It was argued that while nothing can replace the experiential knowledge of long-term engineers, software with built-in validations can accelerate training and building information modelling (BIM) processes. Younger personnel will expect a user interface paradigm that is based on their past gaming and work experiences. Visualization, simulation, and modelling approaches were reviewed. 3 refs.

Expectancies, socioeconomic status, and self-rated health: use of the simplified TOMCATS Questionnaire.

Science.gov (United States)

Odéen, Magnus; Westerlund, Hugo; Theorell, Töres; Leineweber, Constanze; Eriksen, Hege R; Ursin, Holger

2013-06-01

Coping has traditionally been measured with inventories containing many items meant to identify specific coping strategies. An alternative is to develop a shorter inventory that focusses on coping expectancies which may determine the extent to which an individual attempts to cope actively. This paper explores the usefulness and validity of a simplified seven-item questionnaire (Theoretically Originated Measure of the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress, TOMCATS) for response outcome expectancies defined either as positive ("coping"), negative ("hopelessness"), or none ("helplessness"). The definitions are based on the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS; Ursin and Eriksen, Psychoneuroendocrinology, 29(5):567–92, 2004). The questionnaire was tested in two different samples. First, the questionnaire was compared with a traditional test of coping and then tested for validity in relation to socioeconomic differences in self-reported health. The first study was a comparison of the brief TOMCATS with a short version of the Utrecht Coping List (UCL; Eriksen et al., Scand J Psychol, 38(3):175–82, 1997). Both questionnaires were tested in a population of 1,704 Norwegian municipality workers. The second study was a cross-sectional analysis of TOMCATS, subjective and objective socioeconomic status, and health in a representative sample of the Swedish working population in 2003–2005 (N = 11,441). In the first study, the coping item in the TOMCATS questionnaire showed an expected significant positive correlation with the UCL factors of instrumental mastery-oriented coping and negative correlations with passive and depressive scores. There were also the expected correlations for the helplessness and hopelessness scores, but there was no clear distinction between helplessness and hopelessness in the way they correlated with the UCL. In the second study, the coping item in TOMCATS and the three-item helplessness scores showed clear and monotonous gradients over

Asset transformation and the challenges to servitize a utility business model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helms, Thorsten

2016-01-01

The traditional energy utility business model is under pressure, and energy services are expected to play an important role for the energy transition. Experts and scholars argue that utilities need to innovate their business models, and transform from commodity suppliers to service providers. The transition from a product-oriented, capital-intensive business model based on tangible assets, towards a service-oriented, expense-intensive business model based on intangible assets may present great managerial and organizational challenges. Little research exists about such transitions for capital-intensive commodity providers, and particularly energy utilities, where the challenges to servitize are expected to be greatest. This qualitative paper explores the barriers to servitization within selected Swiss and German utility companies through a series of interviews with utility managers. One of them is ‘asset transformation’, the shift from tangible to intangible assets as major input factor for the value proposition, which is proposed as a driver for the complexity of business model transitions. Managers need to carefully manage those challenges, and find ways to operate both new service and established utility business models aside. Policy makers can support the transition of utilities through more favorable regulatory frameworks for energy services, and by supporting the exchange of knowledge in the industry. - Highlights: •The paper analyses the expected transformation of utilities into service-providers. •Service and utility business models possess very different attributes. •The former is based on intangible, the latter on tangible assets. •The transformation into a service-provider is related with great challenges. •Asset transformation is proposed as a barrier for business model innovation.

Subjective Life Horizon and Portfolio Choice

OpenAIRE

Spaenjers , Christophe; Spira, Sven Michael

2013-01-01

Using data from a U.S. household survey, we examine the empirical relation between subjective life horizon (i.e., the self-reported expectation of remaining life span) and portfolio choice. We find that equity portfolio shares are higher for investors with longer horizons, ceteris paribus, in line with theoretical predictions. This result is robust to controlling for optimism and health status, accounting for the endogeneity of equity market participation, or instrumenting subjective life hor...

Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

2013-01-01

as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

Delays help German utilities maintain self-financing ratios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radtke, G.

1979-01-01

Estimates of electricity consumption have been substantially reduced and nuclear plant is now expected to be 22% of total generating capacity in 1985 instead of the earlier forecast of 36%. The decline in the ordering of new plant has benefited the financial position of the electricity utilities and the expected fall in self-financing ratios has not occurred. (U.K.)

Swedish medical students' expectations of their future life.

OpenAIRE

Diderichsen, S.; Andersson, J.; Johansson, E.E.; Verdonk, P.; Lagro-Janssen, T.; Hamberg, K.

2011-01-01

Objectives: To investigate future life expectations among male and female medical students in their first and final year. Methods: The study was cross-sectional and conducted at a Swedish medical school. Out of 600 invited students, 507 (85%) answered an open-ended question about their future life, 298 (59%) first-year students and 209 (41%) last-year students. Women constituted 60% of the respondents. A mixed model design was applied; qualitative content analysis was utilized to create stati...

Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

Autonomy Support and Intrinsic Goal Progress Expectancy and Its Links to Longitudinal Study Effort and Subjective Wellbeing: The Differential Mediating Effect of Intrinsic and Identified Regulations and the Moderator Effects of Effort and Intrinsic Goals

Science.gov (United States)

Waaler, Rune; Halvari, Halgeir; Skjesol, Knut; Bagoien, Tor Egil

2013-01-01

The authors tested a self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) process model of subjective wellbeing among students at Norwegian Folk High Schools. In this model the authors hypothesized that students' intrinsic goal progress expectancy in the chosen study activity and perceived autonomy support from teachers would be positively associated…

Decision Utility Theory: Back to von Neumann, Morgenstern, and Markowitz

OpenAIRE

Kontek, Krzysztof

2010-01-01

Prospect Theory (1979) and its Cumulative version (1992) argue for probability weighting to explain lottery choices. Decision Utility Theory presents an alternative solution, which makes no use of this concept. The new theory distinguishes decision and perception utility, postulates a double S-shaped decision utility curve similar to one hypothesized by Markowitz (1952), and applies the expected decision utility value similarly to the theory by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944). Decision Uti...

The effects of caffeine and expectancy on attention and memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Oei, Adam; Hartley, Laurence R

2005-04-01

The present study contrasted caffeine's effects on individuals who expect caffeine to stimulate them and those who do not. Secondly, whether a message that caffeine rather than placebo was administered would also affect these two groups of subjects differently was investigated. The study was conducted single-blind in a 2x2x2 mixed design. The between subjects factor was whether they expected caffeine to stimulate them (E+) or not (E-) according to their self reports obtained before the experiment began. The within subjects factors were message (told caffeine vs told placebo) and beverage type (given caffeine vs placebo). Sixteen subjects in each group (n=32) performed on signal detection, memory scanning and delayed free recall tasks following ingestion of either caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee on two sessions each, a total of four experimental sessions. On each session, subjects were given a message regarding their drink (told caffeine vs told placebo). However, on two sessions there was a mismatch between the message and drink given. For signal detection, performance under caffeine was better than placebo in the E+ but not the E- group. However, subjects in the E+ group did not benefit more than the E- group in either message condition. On memory scanning, detections and false alarms did not differ for either beverage, nor was there a differential finding in the E+ and E- groups. However, reaction time under caffeine condition was shorter. No effects of message were found. Caffeine and message also did not have any effect on performance on the delayed free recall task. The hypothesis that caffeine and message would affect E+ and E- subjects differentially was partly supported. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

2008-07-01

Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

Segmentation of Portuguese customers’ expectations from fitness programs

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Ricardo Gouveia Rodrigues

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Expectations towards fitness exercises are the major factor in customer satisfaction in the service sector in question. The purpose of this study is to present a segmentation framework for fitness customers, based on their individual expectations. The survey was designed and validated to evaluate individual expectations towards exercises. The study included a randomly recruited sample of 723 subjects (53% males; 47% females; 42.1±19.7 years. Factor analysis and cluster analysis with Ward’s cluster method with squared Euclidean distance were used to analyse the data obtained. Four components were extracted (performance, enjoyment, beauty and health explaining 68.7% of the total variance and three distinct segments were found: Exercise Lovers (n=312, Disinterested (n=161 and Beauty Seekers (n=250. All the factors identified have a significant contribution to differentiate the clusters, the first and third clusters being most similar. The segmentation framework obtained based on customer expectations allows better understanding of customers’ profiles, thus helping the fitness industry develop services more suitable for each type of customers. A follow-up study was conducted 5 years later and the results concur with the initial study.

PSA, subjective probability and decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarotti, C.A.

1989-01-01

PSA is the natural way to making decisions in face of uncertainty relative to potentially dangerous plants; subjective probability, subjective utility and Bayes statistics are the ideal tools for carrying out a PSA. This paper reports that in order to support this statement the various stages of the PSA procedure are examined in detail and step by step the superiority of Bayes techniques with respect to sampling theory machinery is proven

Acne treatment patterns, expectations, and satisfaction among adult females of different races/ethnicities

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Rendon MI

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Marta I Rendon,1 David A Rodriguez,2 Ariane K Kawata,3 Arnold N Degboe,4 Teresa K Wilcox,3 Caroline T Burk,5 Selena R Daniels,4 Wendy E Roberts6 1Rendon Center for Dermatology and Aesthetic Medicine, Boca Raton, FL, USA; 2Dermatology Associates and Research, Coral Gables, FL, USA; 3Evidera, Bethesda, MD, USA; 4Allergan Inc., Irvine, CA, USA; 5Health Outcomes Consultant, Laguna Beach, CA, USA; 6Generational and Cosmetic Dermatology, Rancho Mirage, CA, USA Background: Limited data are available on acne treatment patterns, expectations, and satisfaction in the adult female subpopulation, particularly among different racial and ethnic groups. Objective: Describe acne treatment patterns and expectations in adult females of different racial/ethnic groups and analyze and explore their potential effects on medication compliance and treatment satisfaction. Methods: A cross-sectional, Web-based survey was administered to US females (25–45 years with facial acne (≥25 visible lesions. Data collected included sociodemographics, self-reported clinical characteristics, acne treatment use, and treatment expectations and satisfaction. Results: Three hundred twelve subjects completed the survey (mean age, 35.3±5.9 years, comprising black (30.8%, Hispanic (17.6%, Asian/other (17.3%, and white (34.3%. More than half of the subjects in each racial group recently used an acne treatment or procedure (black, 63.5%; Hispanic, 54.5%; Asian/other, 66.7%; white, 66.4%. Treatment use was predominantly over-the-counter (OTC (47.4% versus prescription medications (16.6%. OTC use was highest in white subjects (black, 42.7%; Hispanic, 34.5%; Asian/other, 44.4%; white, 59.8%; P<0.05. The most frequently used OTC treatments in all racial/ethnic groups were salicylic acid (SA (34.3% and benzoyl peroxide (BP (32.1%. Overall, compliance with acne medications was highest in white versus black (57.0±32.4 vs 42.7±33.5 days, P>0.05, Hispanic (57.0±32.4 vs 43.2±32.9 days, P>0

Does Physical Activity Increase Life Expectancy? A Review of the Literature

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C. D. Reimers

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Physical activity reduces many major mortality risk factors including arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus type 2, dyslipidemia, coronary heart disease, stroke, and cancer. All-cause mortality is decreased by about 30% to 35% in physically active as compared to inactive subjects. The purpose of this paper was to synthesize the literature on life expectancy in relation to physical activity. A systematic PubMed search on life expectancy in physically active and inactive individuals was performed. In addition, articles comparing life expectancy of athletes compared to that of nonathletes were reviewed. Results of 13 studies describing eight different cohorts suggest that regular physical activity is associated with an increase of life expectancy by 0.4 to 6.9 years. Eleven studies included confounding risk factors for mortality and revealed an increase in life expectancy by 0.4 to 4.2 years with regular physical activity. Eleven case control studies on life expectancy in former athletes revealed consistently greater life expectancy in aerobic endurance athletes but inconsistent results for other athletes. None of these studies considered confounding risk factors for mortality. In conclusion, while regular physical activity increases life expectancy, it remains unclear if high-intensity sports activities further increase life expectancy.

Is Recess an Achievement Context? An Application of Expectancy-Value Theory to Playground Choices

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Spencer-Cavaliere, Nancy; Dunn, Janice Causgrove; Watkinson, E. Jane

2009-01-01

This study investigated the application of an expectancy-value model to children's activity choices on the playground at recess. The purpose was to test the prediction that expectancies for success and subjective task values are related to decisions to engage in specific recess activities such as climbing, playing soccer, or skipping rope.…

The European Utility Requirement Document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roche, I.I.

1999-01-01

The major European electricity producers work on a common requirement document for future LWR plants since 1992. They aim at requirements acceptable together by the owners, the public and the authorities. Thus the designers can develop standard LWR designs acceptable everywhere in Europe and the utilities can open their consultations to vendors on common bases. Such a standardisation promotes an improvement of generation costs and of safety : public and authorities acceptance should be improved as well ; significant savings are expected in development and construction costs. Since the early stages of the project, the EUR group has grown significantly. It now includes utilities from nine European countries. Utilities from two other European countries are joining the group. Specific cooperation agreements are also in progress with a few extra-European partners

Mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions: an application to vestibular schwannoma management.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Steven W; Aranda, Derick; Driscoll, Colin L W; Parsa, Andrew T

2010-02-01

Complex medical decision making obligates tradeoff assessments among treatment outcomes expectations, but an accessible tool to perform the necessary analysis is conspicuously absent. We aimed to demonstrate methodology and feasibility of adapting conjoint analysis for mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions in vestibular schwannoma (VS) management. Prospective. Tertiary medical center and US-based otologists/neurotologists. Treatment preference profiles among VS stakeholders-61 younger and 74 older prospective patients, 61 observation patients, and 60 surgeons-were assessed for the synthetic VS case scenario of a 10-mm tumor in association with useful hearing and normal facial function. Treatment attribute utility. Conjoint analysis attribute levels were set in accordance to the results of a meta-analysis. Forty-five case series were disaggregated to formulate microsurgery facial nerve and hearing preservation outcomes expectations models. Attribute utilities were computed and mapped to the realistic treatment choices of translabyrinthine craniotomy, middle fossa craniotomy, and gamma knife radiosurgery. Among the treatment attributes of likelihoods of causing deafness, temporary facial weakness for 2 months, and incurable cancer within 20 years, and recovery time, permanent deafness was less important to tumor surgeons, and temporary facial weakness was more important to tumor surgeons and observation patients (Wilcoxon rank-sum, p knife radiosurgery. Mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions for a synthetic clinical scenario revealed inhomogeneous drivers of choice selection among study cohorts. Medical decision engines that analyze personal preferences of outcomes expectations for VS and many other diseases may be developed to promote shared decision making among health care stakeholders and transparency in the informed consent process.

Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity*

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Benítez-Silva, Hugo; Ni, Huan

2010-01-01

Expected longevity is an important factor influencing older individuals’ decisions such as consumption, savings, purchase of life insurance and annuities, claiming of Social Security benefits, and labor supply. It has also been shown to be a good predictor of actual longevity, which in turn is highly correlated with health status. A relatively new literature on health investments under uncertainty, which builds upon the seminal work by Grossman (1972), has directly linked longevity with characteristics, behaviors, and decisions by utility maximizing agents. Our empirical model can be understood within that theoretical framework as estimating a production function of longevity. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, we directly incorporate health dynamics in explaining the variation in expected longevities, and compare two alternative measures of health dynamics: the self-reported health change, and the computed health change based on self-reports of health status. In 38% of the reports in our sample, computed health changes are inconsistent with the direct report on health changes over time. And another 15% of the sample can suffer from information losses if computed changes are used to assess changes in actual health. These potentially serious problems raise doubts regarding the use and interpretation of the computed health changes and even the lagged measures of self-reported health as controls for health dynamics in a variety of empirical settings. Our empirical results, controlling for both subjective and objective measures of health status and unobserved heterogeneity in reporting, suggest that self-reported health changes are a preferred measure of health dynamics. PMID:18187217

Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

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Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

Math-related career aspirations and choices within Eccles et al.'s expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lauermann, Fani; Tsai, Yi-Miau; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

2017-08-01

Which occupation to pursue is one of the more consequential decisions people make and represents a key developmental task. Yet the underlying developmental processes associated with either individual or group differences in occupational choices are still not well understood. This study contributes toward filling this gap, focusing in particular on the math domain. We examined two aspects of Eccles et al.'s (1983) expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors: (a) the reciprocal associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs and adolescents' career plans and (b) the multiplicative association between expectancies and values in predicting occupational outcomes in the math domain. Our analyses indicate that adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math and their math- or science-related career plans reported at the beginning and end of high school predict each other over time, with the exception of intrinsic interest in math. Furthermore, multiplicative associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math predict math-related career attainment approximately 15 years after graduation from high school. Gender differences emerged regarding career-related beliefs and career attainment, with male students being more likely than female to both pursue and attain math-related careers. These gender differences could not be explained by differences in beliefs about math as an academic subject. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects

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Shanna eErickson

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

Risk and utility in portfolio optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Morrel H.; Natoli, Vincent D.

2003-06-01

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) addresses the problem of determining the optimum allocation of investment resources among a set of candidate assets. In the original mean-variance approach of Markowitz, volatility is taken as a proxy for risk, conflating uncertainty with risk. There have been many subsequent attempts to alleviate that weakness which, typically, combine utility and risk. We present here a modification of MPT based on the inclusion of separate risk and utility criteria. We define risk as the probability of failure to meet a pre-established investment goal. We define utility as the expectation of a utility function with positive and decreasing marginal value as a function of yield. The emphasis throughout is on long investment horizons for which risk-free assets do not exist. Analytic results are presented for a Gaussian probability distribution. Risk-utility relations are explored via empirical stock-price data, and an illustrative portfolio is optimized using the empirical data.

Scheduling stochastic two-machine flow shop problems to minimize expected makespan

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Mehdi Heydari

2013-07-01

Full Text Available During the past few years, despite tremendous contribution on deterministic flow shop problem, there are only limited number of works dedicated on stochastic cases. This paper examines stochastic scheduling problems in two-machine flow shop environment for expected makespan minimization where processing times of jobs are normally distributed. Since jobs have stochastic processing times, to minimize the expected makespan, the expected sum of the second machine’s free times is minimized. In other words, by minimization waiting times for the second machine, it is possible to reach the minimum of the objective function. A mathematical method is proposed which utilizes the properties of the normal distributions. Furthermore, this method can be used as a heuristic method for other distributions, as long as the means and variances are available. The performance of the proposed method is explored using some numerical examples.

17 CFR 250.27 - Classification of accounts prescribed for utility companies not already subject thereto.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... any company whose public utility activities are so limited that the application to it of such system of accounts is clearly inappropriate. A company claiming that its activities are thus limited, shall... thereof, which is a public utility company and which is not required by either the Federal Energy...

Methodological Aspects of Subjective Life Expectancy: Effects of Culture-Specific Reporting Heterogeneity Among Older Adults in the United States.

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Lee, Sunghee; Smith, Jacqui

2016-05-01

Subjective life expectancy (SLE) has been suggested as a predictor of mortality and mortality-related behaviors. Although critical for culturally diverse societies, these findings do not consider cross-cultural methodological comparability. Culture-specific reporting heterogeneity is a well-known phenomenon introducing biases, and research on this issue with SLE is not established. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined reporting heterogeneity in SLE focusing on item nonresponse, focal points, and reports over time for five ethnic-cultural groups: non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, non-Hispanic other races, English-interviewed Hispanics, and Spanish-interviewed Hispanics. On item nonresponse, Spanish-interviewed Hispanics said, "I don't know," to SLE significantly more than any other groups. Nearly half of the respondents chose 0, 50, or 100, making them focal points. However, the focal points differed: 50 for Whites, 100 for Blacks, and 0 for Spanish-interviewed Hispanics. The relationship of SLE measured at two time points was higher for Whites than minorities. Moreover, those who said "I don't know" to SLE showed higher subsequent mortality than those who gave an answer. SLE was not a significant mortality predictor for Hispanics. Overall, SLE is not free from culture-specific reporting heterogeneity. This warrants further research about its culture-relevant measurement mechanisms. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

State of expectancy modulates the neural response to visual food stimuli in humans.

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Malik, Saima; McGlone, Francis; Dagher, Alain

2011-04-01

Human brain imaging studies demonstrate distributed activation of limbic, paralimbic and sensory systems to food and food-associated cues. Activity in this circuit may be modulated by internal factors, such as hunger, and cognitive factors. Anticipation to eat is one such factor, which likely impacts consummatory behavior. Here, the neural substrates of food expectancy were identified in 10 healthy male participants who underwent two whole-brain functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging scans on separate days. Fasted subjects viewed images of food and scenery, in two counterbalanced states. During one condition, subjects were 'expecting' to eat right after the scan and during the other they were 'not expecting' to eat for 1 h after the scan. Food pictures compared with scenery yielded bilateral activation in visual areas as well as in the left insula and amygdala in both conditions. The left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, hippocampus and putamen were additionally activated in the 'not expecting' condition while right orbitofrontal cortex activity was enhanced in the 'expecting' condition. These data suggest that cognitive manipulations affect the response to food cues in the prefrontal cortex, in areas involved in the planning and control of motivated behaviors, while the amygdala and insula responded equally in both conditions, consistent with a more basic role in homeostatically driven appetitive behavior. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personality factors versus expectations and self-reported symptoms among patients awaiting advanced prosthodontic treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hakestam, U; Söderfeldt, B; Rydén, O; Glantz, P O

1997-09-01

To assess simple questions for identifying patient personality traits among a normal Swedish population and to assess possible relationships between personality and symptoms, attitudes, dental problems, and received dental care, a questionnaire was sent to 489 subjects awaiting prosthodontic treatment (response rate 84.2%). Three personality traits could be identified: "Fearful-depressed" subjects consumed more tranquillisers, were worried and had many symptoms, whilst "Open-minded" were optimistic about treatment, had high expectations and few symptoms. "Control-minded" did not reveal worries and guarded their autonomy. It was concluded that personality indicators were related to clinically relevant factors: salience of teeth, perceptions of problems, dental attendance pattern, expectations and perceptions of symptoms.

Electric utility preferred stock financing - twilight or new dawn?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, R.

1991-01-01

The tax laws have greatly diminished the importance of utility preferred stock. But with utility construction programs expected to rise, it is an opportune time to see if preferreds can be an attractive option again. As recently as 1980, preferred stock financing by electric utilities comprised 55% of all U.S. corporate preferred stock issued. By 1989, this percentage had declined to under 12%. In dollar amounts, electric utility preferred stock financing had decreased by two-thirds over the same time period. The author analyzes just why this decline occurred and what it portends for the future

When expectation confounds iconic memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bachmann, Talis; Aru, Jaan

2016-10-01

In response to the methodological criticism (Bachmann & Aru, 2015) of the interpretation of their earlier experimental results (Mack, Erol, & Clarke, 2015) Mack, Erol, Clarke, and Bert (2016) presented new results that they interpret again in favor of the stance that an attention-free phenomenal iconic store does not exist. Here we once more question their conclusions. When their subjects were unexpectedly asked to report the letters instead of the post-cued circles in the 101th trial where letters were actually absent, they likely failed to see the empty display area because prior experience with letters in the preceding trials produced expectancy based illusory experience of letter-like objects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Harm expectancy violation during exposure therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

de Kleine, Rianne A; Hendriks, Lotte; Becker, Eni S; Broekman, Theo G; van Minnen, Agnes

2017-06-01

Exposure therapy has proven efficacy in the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Emotional processing theory proposes that fear habituation is a central mechanism in symptom reduction, but the empirical evidence supporting this is mixed. Recently it has been proposed that violation of harm expectancies is a crucial mechanism of action in exposure therapy. But to date, changes in harm expectancies have not been examined during exposure therapy in PTSD. The goal of the current study was to examine harm expectancy violation as mechanism of change in exposure therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Patients (N=50, 44 female) with a primary diagnosis of chronic PTSD received intensive exposure therapy. Harm expectancies, harm experiences and subjective units of distress (SUDs) were assessed at each imaginal exposure session, and PTSD symptoms were assessed pre- and posttreatment with the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS). Results showed that harm expectancies were violated within and strongly declined in-between exposure therapy sessions. However, expectancy violation was not related to PTSD symptom change. Fear habituation measures were moderately related to PTSD symptom reductions. In line with theory, exposure therapy promotes expectancy violation in PTSD patients, but this is not related to exposure therapy outcome. More work is warranted to investigate mechanisms of change during exposure therapy in PTSD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expected usability is not a valid indicator of experienced usability

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Meinald T. Thielsch

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Usability is a core construct of website evaluation and inherently defined as interactive. Yet, when analysing first impressions of websites, expected usability, i.e., before use, is of interest. Here we investigate to what extend ratings of expected usability are related to (a experienced usability, i.e., ratings after use, and (b objective usability measures, i.e., task performance. Furthermore, we try to elucidate how ratings of expected usability are correlated to aesthetic judgments. In an experiment, 57 participants submitted expected usability ratings after the presentation of website screenshots in three viewing-time conditions (50, 500, and 10,000 ms and after an interactive task (experienced usability. Additionally, objective usability measures (task completion and duration and subjective aesthetics evaluations were recorded for each website. The results at both the group and individual level show that expected usability ratings are not significantly related either to experienced usability or objective usability measures. Instead, they are highly correlated with aesthetics ratings. Taken together, our results highlight the need for interaction in empirical website usability testing, even when exploring very early usability impressions. In our study, user ratings of expected usability were no valid proxy neither for objective usability nor for experienced website usability.

Evaluation of alternative institutional arrangements in public utilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ermishina Anna, V.

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Since early 2000s a policy of attracting private operators to public utilities, which should help to increase productivity, reduce costs, and as a result, reduce utility prices takes place in Russia. The aim of the study is to identify the relationship between institutional arrangements and pricing for water and wastewater services. Applying statistical and cluster analysis to empirical data on water utilities in 13 largest cities has revealed the differences in the level and dynamics of prices for water and wastewater services in the group of public utilities and public private water utilities. In 2011-2014 the level and growth price rates in the group of public private partnerships were higher than in group of municipal water utilities. Thus, the involvement of private operators has not yet lead to the expected reduction in prices.

Expectations of emotions during testimony: the role of communicator and perceiver characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bederian-Gardner, Daniel; Goldfarb, Deborah

2014-01-01

This study investigated the influence of communicator (child victim) and perceiver (adult participant) characteristics on expectations about witnesses' emotional displays during testimony. In total, 191 adults were asked whether or not they expected child victims who were testifying about sexual abuse to display sadness, fear, anger, disgust, happiness, or a neutral demeanor, and how intensely the adults expected each emotion to be displayed. In describing the victims, child age (5 vs. 13 years old) and child gender (female vs. male) were factorially combined as within-subject factors. Results included that victim gender predicted expectations of fear, and victim age predicted expectations of anger and disgust. There was a significant interaction of victim age and victim gender for expectations of sadness. Of participants who expected multiple emotions, a combination of negative and neutral emotions was expected more from 13-year-old female victims than from 5-year-old female victims. Child victim empathy predicted ratings of how intensely sad and fearful the child victim would look. Implications of these findings for psychological research and the legal system are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Strategies for the plutonium utilization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zouain, D.M.; Lima, J.O.V.; Sakamoto, L.H.

1981-11-01

A review of the activities involving plutonium (its recycle, utilization and technological status and perspectives) is done. These informations are useful for an economic viability study for the plutonium utilization in thermal reactors (recycling) and in fast breeders reactor (FBR), trying to collect the major number of informations about these subjects. The initial phase describes the present status and projections of plutonium accumulation and requirements. Then, the technological process are described and some strategies are analyzed. (E.G.) [pt

The Naïve Utility Calculus: Computational Principles Underlying Commonsense Psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Jara-Ettinger, Julian; Gweon, Hyowon; Schulz, Laura E; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2016-08-01

We propose that human social cognition is structured around a basic understanding of ourselves and others as intuitive utility maximizers: from a young age, humans implicitly assume that agents choose goals and actions to maximize the rewards they expect to obtain relative to the costs they expect to incur. This 'naïve utility calculus' allows both children and adults observe the behavior of others and infer their beliefs and desires, their longer-term knowledge and preferences, and even their character: who is knowledgeable or competent, who is praiseworthy or blameworthy, who is friendly, indifferent, or an enemy. We review studies providing support for the naïve utility calculus, and we show how it captures much of the rich social reasoning humans engage in from infancy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Laypersons' expectation of the sequelae of whiplash injury: a cross-cultural comparative study between Canada and Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, Robert; Constantoyannis, Constantine; Papadakis, Nikolas

2003-03-01

The objective of the present study is to compare the frequency and nature of expected 'whiplash' symptoms in Greece [a country where the chronic whiplash syndrome is rare or unknown] with that in Canada. A symptom checklist was administered to 2 subject groups selected from local companies in Patras Greece, and Edmonton, Canada, respectively. Subjects were asked to imagine having suffered a neck sprain [whiplash injury] with no loss of consciousness in a motor vehicle collision, and to check which, of a variety of symptoms, they would expect might arise from the injury. For symptoms they anticipated, they were asked to select the period of time they expected those symptoms to persist. In both the Greek and Edmontonian groups, the pattern of symptoms anticipated closely resembled the acute symptoms commonly reported by accident victims with acute neck sprain, but while up to 50% of Edmontonians also anticipated symptoms to last months or years, very few Greek subjects selected any symptoms as likely to persist. In Greece, despite the documented occurrence of neck sprain symptoms in individuals following motor vehicle collisions, there is a very low rate of expectation of any sequelae from this injury. What current or previous aspects of society that underlie this remain uncertain. This lack of expectation of chronicity in Greece may, in part, determine the low prevalence of the chronic whiplash syndrome there. Further studies of symptom expectation as an etiologic factor in the chronic whiplash syndrome are needed.

Laypersons' expectation of the sequelae of whiplash injury. A cross-cultural comparative study between Canada and Lithuania.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, Robert; Obelieniene, Diana; Russell, Anthony; Darlington, Paul; Gervais, Roger; Green, Paul

2002-11-01

The objective of the present study is to compare the frequency and nature of expected 'whiplash' symptoms in Lithuania (a country where the late whiplash syndrome is rare or unknown) with that in Canada. A symptom checklist was administered to 2 subject groups selected from local companies in Kaunas, Lithuania, and Edmonton, Canada, respectively. Subjects were asked to imagine having suffered a neck sprain (whiplash injury) with no loss of consciousness in a motor vehicle accident, and to check which, of a variety of symptoms, they would expect might arise from the injury. For symptoms they anticipated, they were asked to select the period of time they expected those symptoms to persist. In both the Lithuanian and Edmontonian groups, the pattern of symptoms anticipated closely resembled the acute symptoms commonly reported by accident victims with acute neck sprain, but while up to 50% of Edmontonians also anticipated symptoms to last months or years, very few Lithuanian subjects selected any symptoms as likely to persist. In Lithuania, despite the documented occurrence of neck sprain symptoms in some 50% of individuals following motor vehicle accidents, there is a very low rate of expectation of any sequelae from this injury. What current or previous aspects of society that underlie this remain uncertain. This lack of expectation of chronicity in Lithuania may, in part, determine the low prevalence of the late whiplash syndrome there. Further studies of symptom expectation as an etiologic factor in the late whiplash syndrome are needed.

Are subjective memory problems related to suggestibility, compliance, false memories, and objective memory performance?

Science.gov (United States)

Van Bergen, Saskia; Jelicic, Marko; Merckelbach, Harald

2009-01-01

The relationship between subjective memory beliefs and suggestibility, compliance, false memories, and objective memory performance was studied in a community sample of young and middle-aged people (N = 142). We hypothesized that people with subjective memory problems would exhibit higher suggestibility and compliance levels and would be more susceptible to false recollections than those who are optimistic about their memory. In addition, we expected a discrepancy between subjective memory judgments and objective memory performance. We found that subjective memory judgments correlated significantly with compliance, with more negative memory judgments accompanying higher levels of compliance. Contrary to our expectation, subjective memory problems did not correlate with suggestibility or false recollections. Furthermore, participants were accurate in estimating their objective memory performance.

Understanding initial undergraduate expectations and identity in computing studies

Science.gov (United States)

Kinnunen, Päivi; Butler, Matthew; Morgan, Michael; Nylen, Aletta; Peters, Anne-Kathrin; Sinclair, Jane; Kalvala, Sara; Pesonen, Erkki

2018-03-01

There is growing appreciation of the importance of understanding the student perspective in Higher Education (HE) at both institutional and international levels. This is particularly important in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics subjects such as Computer Science (CS) and Engineering in which industry needs are high but so are student dropout rates. An important factor to consider is the management of students' initial expectations of university study and career. This paper reports on a study of CS first-year students' expectations across three European countries using qualitative data from student surveys and essays. Expectation is examined from both short-term (topics to be studied) and long-term (career goals) perspectives. Tackling these issues will help paint a picture of computing education through students' eyes and explore their vision of its and their role in society. It will also help educators prepare students more effectively for university study and to improve the student experience.

Non-parametric estimation of the individual's utility map

OpenAIRE

Noguchi, Takao; Sanborn, Adam N.; Stewart, Neil

2013-01-01

Models of risky choice have attracted much attention in behavioural economics. Previous research has repeatedly demonstrated that individuals' choices are not well explained by expected utility theory, and a number of alternative models have been examined using carefully selected sets of choice alternatives. The model performance however, can depend on which choice alternatives are being tested. Here we develop a non-parametric method for estimating the utility map over the wide range of choi...

Evaluation of actual vs expected photodynamic therapy spot size.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranchod, Tushar M; Brucker, Alexander J; Liu, Chengcheng; Cukras, Catherine A; Hopkins, Tim B; Ying, Gui-Shuang

2009-05-01

To determine the accuracy of the photodynamic therapy (PDT) laser spot size on the retina as generated by 2 Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved lasers. Prospective observational case series. Fundus photographs were taken of 1 eye of each of 10 subjects with the WinStation 4000 fundus photography system (OIS; Ophthalmic Imaging Systems, Sacramento, California, USA); disc size was calculated using OIS software. Slit-lamp photographs were taken of the PDT laser spot focused on the retina adjacent to the optic disc, using various spot sizes in combination with 3 different contact lenses and 2 different lasers. Spot size at the retina was determined by measuring the ratio of disc diameter to spot diameter in Adobe Photoshop (San Jose, California, USA) and applying this ratio to the OIS disc measurements. Spot size at the retina averaged 87% of expected spot size for the Coherent Opal laser (Coherent Inc, Santa Clara, California, USA) and 104% of expected spot size for the Zeiss Visulas laser (Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc, Dublin, California, USA)(P = .002). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that percentage of expected spot size decreased with larger spot diameter (P = .01 for Coherent laser; P = .02 for Zeiss laser). PDT spot size at the retina appears to be consistently smaller than expected for the Coherent laser while the spot size was consistently within 10% of expected size for the Zeiss laser. The deviation from expected size increased with larger spot size using the Coherent laser.

Expectations, gender, and norms in migration decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

DE Jong, Gordon F

2000-01-01

This paper argues that expectations - the process of evaluating the chances for future attainment of valued goals in the home community (stay decision) vs. alternative locations (move decision) - along with family norms about migration are major predictors of intention to move, which in turn is a proximate determinant of migration behaviour. Utilizing longitudinal data from the 1992 and 1994 waves of the Thailand National Migration Survey, logistic regression models show that a strikingly different set of expectations, household demographic indicators, and migrant capital factors were significant determinants of migration intentions for men and women; reflecting Thai gender roles. Migration intentions, in turn, predicted more permanent, but not temporary, survival strategy migration behaviour, while low household income predicted temporary but not more permanent migration behaviour. The measure of perceived family migration norms was a powerful determinant of migration behaviour, but the size of migrant networks was not a statistically significant determinant of either migration intentions or behaviour.

PARENTS’ EXPECTATIONS OF THE TEACHING AND LEARNING ISLAMIC EDUCATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nur Hasanah

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The focuses of this research is on parents’ expectation of the teaching and learning Islamic Education among students of SDLB N Ungaran. The subject is Islamic Education teachers and the parents of students in SDLB N Ungaran. The methods of data collections are observation, interview and documentation. The technique of data analysis is inductive analysis. The result shows that the teaching and learning Islamic Education among students of SDLB N Ungaran is generally almost the same with the teaching and learning Islamic Education among students of general school. The difference is only in the psychological aspect. The majority of parents’ expectation of the teaching and learning Islamic Education is the same: in order the students can understand and apply the subject of Islamic Education in their everyday life so that they can become the righteous children. The factors that support the teaching and learning Islamic Education among students of SDLB N Ungaran are the Islamic Education teachers’ patients and meticulous, cooperation between parents, teachers and the school, the extracurricular subjects which are suitable with the students’ talent and ability, and teachers’ creativity in teaching and learning. The factors that hinder the teaching and learning Islamic Education are inefficient and ineffective time (not suitable with the students with physical disabilities, using the same curriculum with the curriculum in the general school, the low quality teachers, and the lack of teaching and learning facilities. 

Alternative outcomes create biased expectations regarding the received outcome: Evidence from event-related potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Marciano, Déborah; Bentin, Shlomo; Deouell, Leon Y

2018-05-01

After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option (the alternative). Behavioral research has shown that in such cases people engage in outcome comparison, and that the alternative outcome influences the way one evaluates his own received outcome. Moreover, this influence differs whether one was responsible or not for the choice made. In two studies, we looked for the electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison. Subjects chose one of two boxes shown on the screen, each box contained a gain or a loss. The alternative outcome was always revealed first, followed by the received outcome. In half of the trials the software picked one box instead of subjects. We tested whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P3 elicited by the received reflect outcome comparison. As expected, we found that the FRN and P3 were more positive when the received outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). The FRN and P3 were also sensitive to the value of the alternative outcome, but contrary to our predictions, they were more positive when the alternative outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). As the FRN and P3 are sensitive to expectations, we hypothesized that our findings might result from subjects' biased expectations: subjects might have wrongly believed that a good (bad) alternative outcome signaled a bad (good) received outcome. This hypothesis, coined as the Alternative Omen Effect, was confirmed in parallel in a series of behavioral experiments: people see an illusory negative correlation between the uncorrelated outcomes of choice options (reported in Marciano-Romm et al. (2016)). A challenge for future research will be to disentangle the effects of expectation from those of outcome comparison. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical evaluation of iterative reconstruction (ordered-subset expectation maximization) in dynamic positron emission tomography: quantitative effects on kinetic modeling with N-13 ammonia in healthy subjects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hove, Jens D; Rasmussen, Rune; Freiberg, Jacob

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate the quantitative properties of ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM) on kinetic modeling with nitrogen 13 ammonia compared with filtered backprojection (FBP) in healthy subjects. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cardiac N-13 ammonia positron...... emission tomography (PET) studies from 20 normal volunteers at rest and during dipyridamole stimulation were analyzed. Image data were reconstructed with either FBP or OSEM. FBP- and OSEM-derived input functions and tissue curves were compared together with the myocardial blood flow and spillover values...... and OSEM flow values were observed with a flow underestimation of 45% (rest/dipyridamole) in the septum and of 5% (rest) and 15% (dipyridamole) in the lateral myocardial wall. CONCLUSIONS: OSEM reconstruction of myocardial perfusion images with N-13 ammonia and PET produces high-quality images for visual...

Raw material utilization in slaughterhouses – optimizing expected profit using mixed-integer programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Toke Koldborg; Kjærsgaard, Niels Christian

Slaughterhouses are major players in the pork supply chain, and supply and demand must be matched in order to generate the highest profit. In particular, carcasses must be sorted in order to produce the “right” final products from the “right” carcasses. We develop a mixed-integer programming (MIP) ...... at slaughterhouses. Finally, we comment on the expected effect of variations in the raw material supply and the demand as well as future research concerning joint modelling of supply chain aspects.......Slaughterhouses are major players in the pork supply chain, and supply and demand must be matched in order to generate the highest profit. In particular, carcasses must be sorted in order to produce the “right” final products from the “right” carcasses. We develop a mixed-integer programming (MIP...

Travel mode choice and travel satisfaction : bridging the gap between decision utility and experienced utility

OpenAIRE

De Vos, Jonas; Mokhtarian, Patricia L; Schwanen, Tim; Van Acker, Veronique; Witlox, Frank

2016-01-01

Over the past decades research on travel mode choice has evolved from work that is informed by utility theory, examining the effects of objective determinants, to studies incorporating more subjective variables such as habits and attitudes. Recently, the way people perceive their travel has been analyzed with transportation-oriented scales of subjective wellbeing, and particularly the satisfaction with travel scale. However, studies analyzing the link between travel mode choice (i.e., decisio...

Evolutionary Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nash, Ulrik William

2014-01-01

, they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical...... cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

Influence diagram in evaluating the subjective judgment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Y.

1997-01-01

The author developed the idea of the subjective influence diagrams to evaluate subjective judgment. The subjective judgment of a stake holder is a primary decision making proposition. It involves a basic decision process an the individual attitude of the stake holder for his decision purpose. The subjective judgment dominates the some final decisions. A complex decision process may include the subjective judgment. An influence diagram framework is a simplest tool for analyzing subjective judgment process. In the framework, the characters of influence diagrams generate the describing the analyzing, and the evaluating of the subjective judgment. The relationship between the information and the decision, such as independent character between them, is the main issue. Then utility function is the calculating tool to evaluation, the stake holder can make optimal decision. Through the analysis about the decision process and relationship, the building process of the influence diagram identically describes the subjective judgment. Some examples are given to explain the property of subjective judgment and the analysis process

Subjective Health Complaints and Self-Rated Health: Are Expectancies More Important Than Socioeconomic Status and Workload?

OpenAIRE

Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R.; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

2013-01-01

Background The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. Purpose The purpose of this study...

Pressurizing the STEM Pipeline: an Expectancy-Value Theory Analysis of Youths' STEM Attitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Ball, Christopher; Huang, Kuo-Ting; Cotten, Shelia R.; Rikard, R. V.

2017-08-01

Over the past decade, there has been a strong national push to increase minority students' positive attitudes towards STEM-related careers. However, despite this focus, minority students have remained underrepresented in these fields. Some researchers have directed their attention towards improving the STEM pipeline which carries students through our educational system and into STEM careers. Previous research has shown that expectancy-value theory (EVT) is useful for examining the short-term as well as long-term academic motivations and intentions of elementary age minority students. These findings provide insights into ways we may be able to potentially "patch" particular STEM pipeline leaks. In the current study, we advance this research by using EVT as a framework to examine the STEM attitudes of young students directly. We hypothesize that students' academic-related expectancies for success and subjective task values will be associated with an increase in STEM attitudes. Data for this study was gathered over the course of a large-scale computing intervention which sought to increase students' STEM interest. This computing intervention took place in an urban elementary school district located within the southeastern USA. Results from this study indicate that both intrinsic values and utility values predict students' STEM attitudes but they influence attitudes related to the various dimensions of STEM differently. These findings demonstrate that EVT provides a useful framework, which can be integrated into future computing interventions, to help encourage positive STEM attitudes in young children, thus increasing the internal pressure (or flow) within the STEM pipeline.

PhD students’ expectations from their supervisors: A qualitative content analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SH Rimaz

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Quality of research in PhD programs increases if supervisors become aware of students' expectations from them. This qualitative study aimed to explore expectations of PhD students from their supervisors was done.   Methods: This qualitative content analysis study was conducted on 22 graduated PhD students of Iran University of Medical Sciences, in 2014. The samples were purposefully selected and interviewed. All interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim.   Results: After analyzing and coding data, it was found that PhD students have four main expectations from their supervisors. These expectations consist of scientific support including help with selection of subject, preparation and registration of proposal, data collection and support for writing and examination of the thesis. Developing scientific skills and help with preparing manuscripts were other expectations. Emotional-social support with five categories including relationship between supervisor-student, general expectations of supervisor, supervisor personality characteristics, needed emotional skills and social activities related to thesis and finally providing adequate resources including financial support and access to facilities inside and outside the university were among the other expectations.   Conclusion: PhD students need to scientific, emotional, social and material supports from their supervisors in the process of performing thesis. These expectations should be told to supervisors.

Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

2004-01-01

Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

A Qualitative Linear Utility Theory for Spohn's Theory of Epistemic Beliefs

OpenAIRE

Giang, Phan H.; Shenoy, Prakash P.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we formulate a qualitative "linear" utility theory for lotteries in which uncertainty is expressed qualitatively using a Spohnian disbelief function. We argue that a rational decision maker facing an uncertain decision problem in which the uncertainty is expressed qualitatively should behave so as to maximize "qualitative expected utility." Our axiomatization of the qualitative utility is similar to the axiomatization developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern for probabilistic l...

The decision to engage cognitive control is driven by expected reward-value: neural and behavioral evidence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew L Dixon

Full Text Available Cognitive control is a fundamental skill reflecting the active use of task-rules to guide behavior and suppress inappropriate automatic responses. Prior work has traditionally used paradigms in which subjects are told when to engage cognitive control. Thus, surprisingly little is known about the factors that influence individuals' initial decision of whether or not to act in a reflective, rule-based manner. To examine this, we took three classic cognitive control tasks (Stroop, Wisconsin Card Sorting Task, Go/No-Go task and created novel 'free-choice' versions in which human subjects were free to select an automatic, pre-potent action, or an action requiring rule-based cognitive control, and earned varying amounts of money based on their choices. Our findings demonstrated that subjects' decision to engage cognitive control was driven by an explicit representation of monetary rewards expected to be obtained from rule-use. Subjects rarely engaged cognitive control when the expected outcome was of equal or lesser value as compared to the value of the automatic response, but frequently engaged cognitive control when it was expected to yield a larger monetary outcome. Additionally, we exploited fMRI-adaptation to show that the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC represents associations between rules and expected reward outcomes. Together, these findings suggest that individuals are more likely to act in a reflective, rule-based manner when they expect that it will result in a desired outcome. Thus, choosing to exert cognitive control is not simply a matter of reason and willpower, but rather, conforms to standard mechanisms of value-based decision making. Finally, in contrast to current models of LPFC function, our results suggest that the LPFC plays a direct role in representing motivational incentives.

What can we expect from future accelerators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panofsky, W.K.H.

1984-06-01

This talk covers a general but highly subjective overview of the expectation for new accelerator development. An updated version of the Livingston chart demonstrates the exponential growth in time of the equivalent laboratory energy of accelerators. A similar Livingston chart pertaining only to electron-positron colliders shows an exponential growth but in the past only one technology - electron-positron storage rings - have been responsible for this development. The question addressed is whether the type of exponential growth reflected by these two charts can be sustained in the future

Fiscal Effectiveness and Debt Illusion in a Rational Expectations Model

OpenAIRE

Basil A. DALAMAGAS

1993-01-01

The question of how substitution of debt for taxes affects private sector wealth and consumption has long been an unresolved macroeconomic theory and policy dispute. The present study attempts to address this problem within a modified fiscal-illusion setting, by utilizing an explicit rational expectations optimizing model of consumer behaviour for a sample of six developed countries. The empirical evidence presented is strongly supportive of the assertion that consumers make their consumption...

Utilization of the terrestrial cyanobacteria

Science.gov (United States)

Katoh, Hiroshi; Tomita-Yokotani, Kaori; Furukawa, Jun; Kimura, Shunta; Yokoshima, Mika; Yamaguchi, Yuji; Takenaka, Hiroyuki

The terrestrial, N _{2}-fixing cyanobacterium, Nostoc commune has expected to utilize for agriculture, food and terraforming cause of its extracellular polysaccharide, desiccation tolerance and nitrogen fixation. Previously, the first author indicated that desiccation related genes were analyzed and the suggested that the genes were related to nitrogen fixation and metabolisms. In this report, we suggest possibility of agriculture, using the cyanobacterium. Further, we also found radioactive compounds accumulated N. commune (cyanobacterium) in Fukushima, Japan after nuclear accident. Thus, it is investigated to decontaminate radioactive compounds from the surface soil by the cyanobacterium and showed to accumulate radioactive compounds using the cyanobacterium. We will discuss utilization of terrestrial cyanobacteria under closed environment. Keyword: Desiccation, terrestrial cyanobacteria, bioremediation, agriculture

Unequal Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlson, Kristian Bernt

the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

A Weakest Pre-Expectation Semantics for Mixed-Sign Expectations

OpenAIRE

Kaminski, Benjamin Lucien; Katoen, Joost-Pieter

2017-01-01

We present a weakest-precondition-style calculus for reasoning about the expected values (pre-expectations) of \\emph{mixed-sign unbounded} random variables after execution of a probabilistic program. The semantics of a while-loop is well-defined as the limit of iteratively applying a functional to a zero-element just as in the traditional weakest pre-expectation calculus, even though a standard least fixed point argument is not applicable in this context. A striking feature of our semantics i...

Tempest in a teapot: utility advertising

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ciscel, D.H.

1976-08-12

Utility sales programs represent a form of organizational slack. It is an expense that can be traded off in times of administrative stress, providing a satisfactory payment to the consumer while maintaining the integrity of the present institutional arrangement. Because it is a trade-off commodity, regulatory control of utility advertising will remain a ''tempest in a teapot.'' Marketing programs are an integral part of the selling process in the modern corporation, and severe restrictions on advertising must be temporary in nature. Court cases have pointed out that utility companies need to inform the consumer about the use of the product and to promote demand for the product. These actions will be considered legally reasonable no matter what the final disposition of current environmental regulations and energy restrictions. In fact, as acceptable social solutions develop for environmental and energy supply problems, the pressure on utility advertising can be expected to fall proportionately. However, the utility still represents the largest industrial concern in most locales. The utility advertising program makes the company even more visible. When there is public dissatisfaction with the more complex parts of the utility delivery system, the raucous voice of outrage will emerge from this tempestuous teapot.

Nuclear energy policy analysis under uncertainties : applications of new utility theoretic approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ra, Ki Yong

1992-02-01

For the purpose of analyzing the nuclear energy policy under uncertainties, new utility theoretic approaches were applied. The main discoveries of new utility theories are that, firstly, the consequences can affect the perceived probabilities, secondly, the utilities are not fixed but can change, and finally, utilities and probabilities thus should be combined dependently to determine the overall worth of risky option. These conclusions were applied to develop the modified expected utility model and to establish the probabilistic nuclear safety criterion. The modified expected utility model was developed in order to resolve the inconsistencies between the expected utility model and the actual decision behaviors. Based on information theory and Bayesian inference, the modified probabilities were obtained as the stated probabilities times substitutional factors. The model theoretically predicts that the extreme value outcomes are perceived as to be more likely to occur than medium value outcomes. This prediction is consistent with the first finding of new utility theories that the consequences can after the perceived probabilities. And further with this theoretical prediction, the decision behavior of buying lottery ticket, of paying for insurance and of nuclear catastrophic risk aversion can well be explained. Through the numerical application, it is shown that the developed model can well explain the common consequence effect, common ratio effect and reflection effect. The probabilistic nuclear safety criterion for core melt frequency was established: Firstly, the distribution of the public's safety goal (DPSG) was proposed for representing the public's group preference under risk. Secondly, a new probabilistic safety criterion (PSC) was established, in which the DPSG was used as a benchmark for evaluating the results of probabilistic safety assessment. Thirdly, a log-normal distribution was proposed as the appropriate DPSG for core melt frequency using the

Calculating utility prudency issue costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, K.R.

1985-01-01

The nuclear industry, particularly utilities and their construction, engineering and vendor agents, is faced with a surging increase in prudency management audits. What started as primarily a nuclear project-oriented requirement has spread to encompass most significant utility capital construction projects. Such audits are often a precedent condition to commencement of rate hearings. The cost engineer, a primary major capital construction project participant, is required to develop or critique ''prudency issue'' costs as part of such audits. Although utility costs in the broadest sense are potentially at issue, this paper concentrates on the typical project/construction management costs. The costs of design, procurement and construction are all subject to the calculation process

Utility as a rationale for choosing observer performance assessment paradigms for detection tasks in medical imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Wunderlich, Adam; Abbey, Craig K

2013-11-01

Studies of lesion detectability are often carried out to evaluate medical imaging technology. For such studies, several approaches have been proposed to measure observer performance, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), the localization ROC (LROC), the free-response ROC (FROC), the alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and the exponentially transformed FROC (EFROC) paradigms. Therefore, an experimenter seeking to carry out such a study is confronted with an array of choices. Traditionally, arguments for different approaches have been made on the basis of practical considerations (statistical power, etc.) or the gross level of analysis (case-level or lesion-level). This article contends that a careful consideration of utility should form the rationale for matching the assessment paradigm to the clinical task of interest. In utility theory, task performance is commonly evaluated with total expected utility, which integrates the various event utilities against the probability of each event. To formalize the relationship between expected utility and the summary curve associated with each assessment paradigm, the concept of a "natural" utility structure is proposed. A natural utility structure is defined for a summary curve when the variables associated with the summary curve axes are sufficient for computing total expected utility, assuming that the disease prevalence is known. Natural utility structures for ROC, LROC, FROC, AFROC, and EFROC curves are introduced, clarifying how the utilities of correct and incorrect decisions are aggregated by summary curves. Further, conditions are given under which general utility structures for localization-based methodologies reduce to case-based assessment. Overall, the findings reveal how summary curves correspond to natural utility structures of diagnostic tasks, suggesting utility as a motivating principle for choosing an assessment paradigm.

The importance, measurement and practical implications of worker's expectations for return to work.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Amanda E; Besen, Elyssa; Choi, YoonSun

2015-01-01

Workers' own expectations for return to work consistently predict work status. To advance the understanding of the relationship between RTW expectations and outcomes, we reviewed existing measures to determine those which we felt were the most likely to capture the construct. A comprehensive search of the work-disability rehabilitation literature was undertaken. The review of the measures was conducted in three steps: first, a review of terminology; second, an examination of whether a time reference was included; third, an evaluation of ease of comprehension, and applicability across contexts. A total of 42 different measures were identified. One of the most striking findings was the inconsistency in terminology. Measures were also limited by not including a time reference. Problems were also identified with regards to ease of understanding, utility of response options, and applicability in a wide variety of research and applied settings. Most previously used measures contain elements that potentially limit utility. However, it would seem that further development can overcome these, resulting in a tool that provides risk prediction information, and an opportunity to start a conversation to help identify problems that might negatively impact a worker's movement through the RTW process and the outcomes achieved. Implications for Rehabilitation Return to work is an integral part of workplace injury management. The capture of RTW expectations affords a way to identify the potential for less than optimal RTW processes and outcomes. A mismatch between an injured worker's expectations and what other stakeholders might expect suggests that efforts could be made to determine what is causing the injured worker's concerns. Once underling issues are identified, work can be put into resolving these so that the worker's return to the workplace is not impeded.

Expectation creates something out of nothing: The role of attention in iconic memory reconsidered.

Science.gov (United States)

Aru, Jaan; Bachmann, Talis

2017-08-01

Conscious experience is modulated by attention and expectation, yet is believed to be independent of attention. The experiments on iconic memory (IM) are usually taken as support for this claim. However, a recent experiment demonstrated that when attention is diverted away from the IM letter display subjects fail to see the absence of IM letters. Here we contribute to the ongoing debate by overcoming experimental shortcomings of this previous experiment, by measuring subjective visibility and by testing the effect of the post-cue. We were able to replicate these earlier findings and extend them by demonstrating that subjects who do not realize the absence of letters perceive illusory letters. This result means that there is still phenomenal consciousness, even when attention is diverted. Expectation creates illusory content that overwrites valid IM content. Taken together these findings suggest that the present experimental paradigm is not appropriate to make claims about IM content. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Availability/reliability of gas supplies are concerns for utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that long-term economical and reliable fuel contracts are imperative for increased use of natural gas. Demand for natural gas grew by 3.3% in 1991 to 19.3 trillion cubic feet (tcf) according to the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA). during 1992, EIA expects natural gas demand to grow about 1.8%. However, EIA predicts that natural gas demand will be down slightly in the electric power sector. This is despite the potential for continuing lower gas prices and availability. wellhead prices for natural gas fell by more than 9% in 1991. Although EIA forecasts a decline in natural gas use by electric utilities, a study undertaken by ICF Resources for Enron Power Services, Inc. expects natural gas consumption in the power industry to increase in the 1990s. ICF says that the growth will occur because many new plants will be gas-fired, many existing electric utility power plants designed for oil and/or natural gas operation will use natural gas, and about half of new non-utility power plants will be gas-fired

The effects of current and expected future income on stated preferences for environmental improvements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Lundhede, Thomas; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

2013-01-01

We formulate and test the hypothesis that expectations regarding changes in future income influences the WTP for environmental goods. For valuation of environmental goods in forests and other habitats in Denmark, we find that both current income and expected changes in future income are significant...... determinants for preferences. The effect of income on WTP seems to be caused by changes in preferences for environmental attributes rather than by marginal utility of income. The results suggest that to evaluate the distributional impacts of environmental improvements, researchers need a better measure...

Subjective Population of Personality: Socio-Psychological Aspects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vadym Zavatskyi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The paper is aimed at identifying the influence of socio-psychological factors on the formation of subjective wellbeing of a married person. The following methods were used: questionnaire, psycho diagnostic techniques for investigating satisfaction with marriage, personal self-fulfillment in the family (on the operational level and the level of values and role sets, socio-psychological adaptation, conformity of family values and role expectations in marriage. The data about the content, structural components (cognitive and evaluation, value and motivational, emotional and behavioral and functions (regulatory, prognostic, developmental of subjective well-being of a married person have been presented. Socio-psychological factors of subjective well-being of a married person have been specified.

A Phenomenological Study to Discover Low-Income Adults' Perceptions and Expectations Regarding Financial Literacy

Science.gov (United States)

Schaffer, Brigid Ann

2013-01-01

This phenomenological study explored the perceptions and expectations of low income adults regarding financial literacy to discover ways to increase attendance in financial literacy programs designs for this cohort. The study utilized interviews with closed-ended questions to establish the participants' backgrounds, then opened-ended questions to…

76 FR 49841 - Transmission Planning and Cost Allocation by Transmission Owning and Operating Public Utilities

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-11

... Commission-approved RTOs and ISOs. The Commission stated that it expected all non-public utility transmission... transmission planning processes that public utility transmission providers in regions outside of RTOs and ISOs...

Neural mechanisms of interference control in working memory: effects of interference expectancy and fluid intelligence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregory C Burgess

2010-09-01

Full Text Available A critical aspect of executive control is the ability to limit the adverse effects of interference. Previous studies have shown activation of left ventrolateral prefrontal cortex after the onset of interference, suggesting that interference may be resolved in a reactive manner. However, we suggest that interference control may also operate in a proactive manner to prevent effects of interference. The current study investigated the temporal dynamics of interference control by varying two factors - interference expectancy and fluid intelligence (gF - that could influence whether interference control operates proactively versus reactively.A modified version of the recent negatives task was utilized. Interference expectancy was manipulated across task blocks by changing the proportion of recent negative (interference trials versus recent positive (facilitation trials. Furthermore, we explored whether gF affected the tendency to utilize specific interference control mechanisms. When interference expectancy was low, activity in lateral prefrontal cortex replicated prior results showing a reactive control pattern (i.e., interference-sensitivity during probe period. In contrast, when interference expectancy was high, bilateral prefrontal cortex activation was more indicative of proactive control mechanisms (interference-related effects prior to the probe period. Additional results suggested that the proactive control pattern was more evident in high gF individuals, whereas the reactive control pattern was more evident in low gF individuals.The results suggest the presence of two neural mechanisms of interference control, with the differential expression of these mechanisms modulated by both experimental (e.g., expectancy effects and individual difference (e.g., gF factors.

Implicit associations and explicit expectancies towards cannabis in heavy cannabis users and controls

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esther eBeraha

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Cognitive biases, including implicit memory associations are thought to play an important role in the development of addictive behaviors. The aim of the present study was to investigate implicit affective memory associations in heavy cannabis users. Implicit positive-arousal, sedation, and negative associations towards cannabis were measured with three Single Category Implicit Association Tests (SC-IAT’s and compared between 59 heavy cannabis users and 89 controls. Moreover, we investigated the relationship between these implicit affective associations and explicit expectancies, subjective craving, cannabis use, and cannabis related problems. Results show that heavy cannabis users had stronger implicit positive-arousal associations but weaker implicit negative associations towards cannabis compared to controls. Moreover, heavy cannabis users had stronger sedation but weaker negative explicit expectancies towards cannabis compared to controls. Within heavy cannabis users, more cannabis use was associated with stronger implicit negative associations whereas more cannabis use related problems was associated with stronger explicit negative expectancies, decreasing the overall difference on negative associations between cannabis users and controls. No other associations were observed between implicit associations, explicit expectancies, measures of cannabis use, cannabis use related problems, or subjective craving. These findings indicate that, in contrast to other substances of abuse like alcohol and tobacco, the relationship between implicit associations and cannabis use appears to be weak in heavy cannabis users.

Generalized expectation with general kernels on g-semirings and its applications

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko; Babakhani, A.

2017-01-01

Roč. 111, č. 3 (2017), s. 863-875 ISSN 1578-7303 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fractional integral * g-expectation * Jensen’s inequality * Probability theory Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Pure mathematics Impact factor: 0.690, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0477104.pdf

Using Neural Data to Test A Theory of Investor Behavior: An Application to Realization Utility.

Science.gov (United States)

Frydman, Cary; Barberis, Nicholas; Camerer, Colin; Bossaerts, Peter; Rangel, Antonio

2014-04-01

We use measures of neural activity provided by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to test the "realization utility" theory of investor behavior, which posits that people derive utility directly from the act of realizing gains and losses. Subjects traded stocks in an experimental market while we measured their brain activity. We find that all subjects exhibit a strong disposition effect in their trading, even though it is suboptimal. Consistent with the realization utility explanation for this behavior, we find that activity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, an area known to encode the value of options during choices, correlates with the capital gains of potential trades; that the neural measures of realization utility correlate across subjects with their individual tendency to exhibit a disposition effect; and that activity in the ventral striatum, an area known to encode information about changes in the present value of experienced utility, exhibits a positive response when subjects realize capital gains. These results provide support for the realization utility model and, more generally, demonstrate how neural data can be helpful in testing models of investor behavior.

The role of multisensory interplay in enabling temporal expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ball, Felix; Michels, Lara E; Thiele, Carsten; Noesselt, Toemme

2018-01-01

Temporal regularities can guide our attention to focus on a particular moment in time and to be especially vigilant just then. Previous research provided evidence for the influence of temporal expectation on perceptual processing in unisensory auditory, visual, and tactile contexts. However, in real life we are often exposed to a complex and continuous stream of multisensory events. Here we tested - in a series of experiments - whether temporal expectations can enhance perception in multisensory contexts and whether this enhancement differs from enhancements in unisensory contexts. Our discrimination paradigm contained near-threshold targets (subject-specific 75% discrimination accuracy) embedded in a sequence of distractors. The likelihood of target occurrence (early or late) was manipulated block-wise. Furthermore, we tested whether spatial and modality-specific target uncertainty (i.e. predictable vs. unpredictable target position or modality) would affect temporal expectation (TE) measured with perceptual sensitivity (d ' ) and response times (RT). In all our experiments, hidden temporal regularities improved performance for expected multisensory targets. Moreover, multisensory performance was unaffected by spatial and modality-specific uncertainty, whereas unisensory TE effects on d ' but not RT were modulated by spatial and modality-specific uncertainty. Additionally, the size of the temporal expectation effect, i.e. the increase in perceptual sensitivity and decrease of RT, scaled linearly with the likelihood of expected targets. Finally, temporal expectation effects were unaffected by varying target position within the stream. Together, our results strongly suggest that participants quickly adapt to novel temporal contexts, that they benefit from multisensory (relative to unisensory) stimulation and that multisensory benefits are maximal if the stimulus-driven uncertainty is highest. We propose that enhanced informational content (i.e. multisensory

Utilities reforms and corruption in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Estache, Antonio; Goicoechea, Ana; Trujillo, Lourdes

2009-01-01

This paper shows empirically that 'privatization' in the energy, telecommunications, and water sectors, and the introduction of independent regulators in those sectors, have not always had the expected effects on access, affordability, or quality of services. It also shows that corruption leads to adjustments in the quantity, quality, and price of services consistent with the profit-maximizing behavior that one would expect from monopolies in the sector. Finally, our results suggest that privatization and the introduction of independent regulators have, at best, only partial effects on the consequences of corruption for access, affordability, and quality of utilities services. (author)

Utilities reforms and corruption in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Estache, Antonio [ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels (Belgium); Goicoechea, Ana [The World Bank, Washington, DC (United States); Trujillo, Lourdes [DAEA, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain); Centre for Transport Studies, University College of London (United Kingdom)

2009-06-15

This paper shows empirically that 'privatization' in the energy, telecommunications, and water sectors, and the introduction of independent regulators in those sectors, have not always had the expected effects on access, affordability, or quality of services. It also shows that corruption leads to adjustments in the quantity, quality, and price of services consistent with the profit-maximizing behavior that one would expect from monopolies in the sector. Finally, our results suggest that privatization and the introduction of independent regulators have, at best, only partial effects on the consequences of corruption for access, affordability, and quality of utilities services. (author)

Travel mode choice and travel satisfaction: bridging the gap between decision utility and experienced utility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Vos, J.; Mokhtarian, P.L.; Schwanen, T.; Van Acker, V.; Witlox, F.

2016-01-01

Over the past decades research on travel mode choice has evolved from work that is informed by utility theory, examining the effects of objective determinants, to studies incorporating more subjective variables such as habits and attitudes. Recently, the way people perceive their travel has been

Utilization of the ion traps by SPIRAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Brun, C.; Lienard, E.; Mauger, F.; Tamain, B.

1997-01-01

An ion trap is a device capable of confine particles, ions or atoms in a well-controlled environment isolated from any exterior perturbations. There are different traps. They are utilized to collect or stock ions, to cool them after in order to subject them to high precision measurement of masses, magnetic moments, hyperfine properties, beta decay properties, etc. Some dozen of traps are currently used all over the world to study stable or radioactive ions.. SPIRAL has been designed and built to produce radioactive ions starting from various heavy ion beams. SPIRAL has the advantage that the projectile parameters, the target and the energy can be chosen to optimize the production in various regions of the nuclear chart. Also, in SPIRAL it is possible to extract more rapidly the radioactive ions formed in the targets. In addition, in SPIRAL the multicharged ion production in a ECR source is possible. The utilization of multicharged ions is indeed very useful for fast mass measurements or for the study of the interaction between the nucleus and the electronic cloud. Finally, utilization of a ion trap on SPIRAL can be designed first at the level of production target by installing a low energy output line. Than, the trap system could be up-graded and brought to its full utilization behind of the recoil spectrometer. It must be capable of selecting and slowing down the ions produced in the reactions (fusion transfer, very inelastic collisions, etc.) induced by the radioactive ions accelerated in CIME. At present, the collaboration is debating on the most favored subject to study and the most suited experimental setups. The following subjects were selected: ion capture, purification and manipulation; isomers (separation and utilization); mass measurements; hyperfine interactions; lifetimes, nuclear electric cloud; β decays; study of the N = Z nuclei close to the proton drip line; physical and chemical properties of transuranium systems

Utility DSM Programs from 1989 Through 1998: Continuation or Cross-Roads?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hadley, S.

1995-01-01

Over the past five years, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has been collecting data annually from US electric utilities on their demand-side management (DSM) programs, both current and projected. The latest data cover activities for 1993 and projections for 1994 and 1998. In 1993, 991 utilities operated DSM programs. That year, they spent $2.8 billion, a 13% increase over 1992 expenditures. These and earlier DSM programs saved 44,000 GWh of energy and reduced potential peak demand by 40,000 MW, 30% and 22% increases over the 1992 values, respectively. While some people predict the demise of electric-utility DSM programs, the data do not paint so bleak a picture. In most parts of the country, DSM programs grew in 1993 and utilities (as of Spring 1994) projected continued growth through 1998. Expenditures grew from 1.3% of revenues in 1992 to 1.5% in 1993, and are expected to grow 2.5% per year faster than inflation, which is equivalent to revenue growth. Thus, DSM spending is expected to stay constant at 1.5% of revenues through 1998. Because of the cumulative effect of DSM programs, energy savings are expected to grow from 1.2% of sales in 1992 to 1.6% in 1993 and 3.0% in 1998. Potential-peak reductions are expected to increase from 5.9% of peak demand in 1992 to 6.8% in 1993 and 8.9% in 1998. However, the growth in spending is not as rapid as the 8% annual real growth projected a year earlier. Actual expenditures in 1993 were 6.5% lower than projected early that year. Energy savings, on the other hand, were the same as projected earlier. Potential peak reductions were actually 9% higher than previously projected.

Expected characteristics of future reactors for human beings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taketani, Kiyoaki

1992-01-01

Based on four reactor safety components (namely: a) God-given safety, b) Equipment safety, c) Quick-response safety, d) Containing safety), categorical assessment is made of various nuclear reactor concepts ranging from present existing reactors to future reactors based on innovative reactor design. In pursuit of nuclear reactor safety, ultimate characteristics of the ideal nuclear reactor are expected to coincide with those of an inherently safe reactor. A definition of 'inherently safe' has already been proposed by a committee in Japan. As a realistic and existable reactor, which is as close to the ideal reactor, a future reactor which is almost the same as a global reactor, is proposed. This global reactor must be constructable anywhere on earth and must permit easy operation and maintenance by anyone. It is also discussed to identify what behavior is expected of the global reactor under various conditions. At the same time, this future reactor which includes the global reactor, should solve a) the nuclear fuel resource issue, b) efficient utilization of fission energy and c) environmental issues as the greenhouse effect. (author). 7 refs., 2 figs

Poor expectations of knee replacement benefit are associated with modifiable psychological factors and influence the decision to have surgery: A cross-sectional and longitudinal study of a community-based sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Riddle, Daniel L; Golladay, Gregory J; Hayes, Amanda; Ghomrawi, Hassan M K

2017-03-01

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a highly effective surgery, but is underutilized by some patient groups. This study determined factors associated with a person's expectations with respect to pain and walking function following a TKA procedure, should they elect to undergo a TKA. A total of 3542 people were studied with or at risk of knee osteoarthritis and enrolled in the community-based Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Multivariable logistic regression analyses identified demographic, socioeconomic, osteoarthritis-related, joint replacement awareness, and psychological correlates as poor outcome expectations. Logistic regression determined if outcome expectation was associated with future knee arthroplasty utilization. Approximately 25% of the sample expected a poor outcome. Several factors were associated with poor pain outcome expectation, with the most powerful being African American race (Odds Ratio (OR)=2.11, 95% CI=1.69, 2.64) and an interaction between clinical depression symptoms and pain catastrophizing (OR=3.17, 95% CI=2.26, 4.44 when both were coded 'yes'). Whether a person had knee OA did not affect expectations. Pain outcome expectations were strongly associated with future TKA utilization (OR=4.9, 95% CI=2.2, 11.1). A variety of modifiable psychological factors impact people's expectations of the extent of pain and walking difficulty following a potential future TKA. Expectations strongly predict future TKA utilization. Given the high prevalence of knee osteoarthritis, mass media educational interventions for the population may assist in better aligning expectations with evidence-based knee arthroplasty outcomes and lead to more appropriate utilization of an effective procedure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decrements in Intrinsic Motivation among Rewarded and Observer Subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, Mark

1983-01-01

Two studies examined the extent to which overjustification effects in five- and ten-year-old subjects can be explained in terms of expectations deriving from the offer of a reward by the experimenter. (Author/MP)

Do patient expectations about arthroplasty at initial presentation for hip or knee pain differ by sex and ethnicity?

Science.gov (United States)

Lavernia, Carlos J; Contreras, Juan S; Parvizi, Javad; Sharkey, Peter F; Barrack, Robert; Rossi, Mark D

2012-10-01

Many studies show gender and ethnic differences in healthcare utilization and outcomes. Patients' presurgical cognitions regarding surgical outcomes also may vary by gender and ethnicity and play a role in explaining utilization and outcome differences. However, it is unclear whether and to what extent gender and ethnicity play a role in patients' presurgical cognitions. Do gender and ethnicity influence outcome expectations? Is arthroplasty-related knowledge affected by gender and ethnicity? Do gender and ethnicity influence willingness to pay for surgery? In a prospective, multicenter study we gave 765 patients an anonymous questionnaire on expectations, arthroplasty knowledge, and preferences before their consultation for hip and/or knee pain, from March 2005 to July 2007. Six hundred seventy-two of the 765 patients (88%) completed questionnaires. Non-Hispanics and men were more likely to indicate they would be able to engage in more activities. Non-Hispanics and men had greater arthroplasty knowledge. Hispanics and women were more likely to report they would not pay for a total joint arthroplasty (TJA) relative to non-Hispanics and men. Sex and ethnic differences in patients presenting for their initial visit to the orthopaedists for hip or knee pain influence expectations, knowledge, and preferences concerning TJAs. Longitudinal study of relationships between patients' perceptions and utilization or outcomes regarding TJA is warranted.

Laboratory cost and utilization containment.

Science.gov (United States)

Steiner, J W; Root, J M; White, D C

1991-01-01

The authors analyzed laboratory costs and utilization in 3,771 cases of Medicare inpatients admitted to a New England academic medical center ("the Hospital") from October 1, 1989 to September 30, 1990. The data were derived from the Hospital's Decision Resource System comprehensive data base. The authors established a historical reference point for laboratory costs as a percentage of total inpatient costs using 1981-82 Medicare claims data and cost report information. Inpatient laboratory costs were estimated at 9.5% of total inpatient costs for pre-Diagnostic Related Groups (DRGs) Medicare discharges. Using this reference point and adjusting for the Hospital's 1990 case mix, the "expected" laboratory cost was 9.3% of total cost. In fact, the cost averaged 11.5% (i.e., 24% above the expected cost level), and costs represented an even greater percentage of DRG reimbursement at 12.9%. If we regard the reimbursement as a total cost target (to eliminate losses from Medicare), then that 12.9% is 39% above the "expected" laboratory proportion of 9.3%. The Hospital lost an average of $1,091 on each DRG inpatient. The laboratory contributed 29% to this loss per case. Compared to other large hospitals, the Hospital was slightly (3%) above the mean direct cost per on-site test and significantly (58%) above the mean number of inpatient tests per inpatient day compared to large teaching hospitals. The findings suggest that careful laboratory cost analyses will become increasingly important as the proportion of patients reimbursed in a fixed manner grows. The future may hold a prospective zero-based laboratory budgeting process based on predictable patterns of DRG admissions or other fixed-reimbursement admission and laboratory utilization patterns.

Relationship of Services Utility with Patients Tending to Hospitals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. Nasiripour

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Background & purpose: In the health sector, in addition to the important consequence of treatment, health system should meet the expectations regarding the desirability of services. Expectations and perceptions of patients about the desirability of services play an important role in selecting hospitals, their loyalty to the organization & replanning to purchase. Thus the present study has been done with the aim to determine the relationship between services desirability and patients’ tendency to public or private hospitals in Sari. Materials & Methods: This study is a descriptive and analytical type done in 2012 in four private and public hospitals located in Sari. The study population consists of hospitalized patients that have been subjected to inquiry by using 361stratified random samples. The survey tool was questionnaire that its validity was judged and approved by the teachers and its reliability was obtained by alpha Cronbach as 0.972. The collected data was analyzed by SPSS software, independent t-test, t-sample test and descriptive statistics. Results: Findings show that in services cost indexes, there are not any significant differences between public and private hospitals while in the other services desirability indexes such as accessibility, availability, speed, quality, and complete package of services and …, there is a significant difference between public and private hospitals. Conclusion: In patients’ tendency to hospitals, utility service indicators satisfy a significant impact. So, codified planning to improve these indexes in order to absorb more patients by authorities is required.

Associated Information Increases Subjective Perception of Duration.

Science.gov (United States)

Schweitzer, Richard; Trapp, Sabrina; Bar, Moshe

2017-08-01

Our sense of time is prone to various biases. For instance, one factor that can dilate an event's perceived duration is the violation of predictions; when a series of repeated stimuli is interrupted by an unpredictable oddball. On the other hand, when the probability of a repetition itself is manipulated, predictable conditions can also increase estimated duration. This suggests that manipulations of expectations have different or even opposing effects on time perception. In previous studies, expectations were generated because stimuli were repeated or because the likelihood of a sequence or a repetition was varied. In the natural environment, however, expectations are often built via associative processes, for example, the context of a kitchen promotes the expectation of plates, appliances, and other associated objects. Here, we manipulated such association-based expectations by using oddballs that were either contextually associated or nonassociated with the standard items. We find that duration was more strongly overestimated for contextually associated oddballs. We reason that top-down attention is biased toward associated information, and thereby dilates subjective duration for associated oddballs. Based on this finding, we propose an interplay between top-down attention and predictive processing in the perception of time.

Expectancy-Value models of health behaviour: the role of salience and anticipated affect

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Pligt, J.; de Vries, N.K.

1998-01-01

Expectancy-value models of health behaviour are based upon the assumption that this behaviour is determined by a subjective cost-benefit analysis. Generally, these models emphasize cognitive appraisal processes focusing on the likelihood and evaluation of the consequences of health-related

Subjective and objective quantification of physician's workload and performance during radiation therapy planning tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazur, Lukasz M; Mosaly, Prithima R; Hoyle, Lesley M; Jones, Ellen L; Marks, Lawrence B

2013-01-01

To quantify, and compare, workload for several common physician-based treatment planning tasks using objective and subjective measures of workload. To assess the relationship between workload and performance to define workload levels where performance could be expected to decline. Nine physicians performed the same 3 tasks on each of 2 cases ("easy" vs "hard"). Workload was assessed objectively throughout the tasks (via monitoring of pupil size and blink rate), and subjectively at the end of each case (via National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index; NASA-TLX). NASA-TLX assesses the 6 dimensions (mental, physical, and temporal demands, frustration, effort, and performance); scores > or ≈ 50 are associated with reduced performance in other industries. Performance was measured using participants' stated willingness to approve the treatment plan. Differences in subjective and objective workload between cases, tasks, and experience were assessed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The correlation between subjective and objective workload measures were assessed via the Pearson correlation test. The relationships between workload and performance measures were assessed using the t test. Eighteen case-wise and 54 task-wise assessments were obtained. Subjective NASA-TLX scores (P .1), were significantly lower for the easy vs hard case. Most correlations between the subjective and objective measures were not significant, except between average blink rate and NASA-TLX scores (r = -0.34, P = .02), for task-wise assessments. Performance appeared to decline at NASA-TLX scores of ≥55. The NASA-TLX may provide a reasonable method to quantify subjective workload for broad activities, and objective physiologic eye-based measures may be useful to monitor workload for more granular tasks within activities. The subjective and objective measures, as herein quantified, do not necessarily track each other, and more work is needed to assess their utilities. From a

US versus non-US utility procurement practices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, H.

1991-01-01

Utilities, particularly in the USA, have often been accused by the uranium industry of behaving like a herd with respect to their activities in the nuclear fuel market. While I disagree with this characterization, I do recognize that utilities in general have certain common motivations influencing their nuclear fuel procurement activities which may make them appear to follow each other. This paper reviews these motivations, how they differ between US and non-US utilities, how such differences lead to different procurement practices in the USA and elsewhere, the resulting impacts on the nuclear fuel market, and the changes, if, any, which one may expect in the future. The discussion in this paper is geared mainly towards the uranium market, though the concepts discussed are also somewhat applicable to the other components of nuclear fuel. (author)

The contribution of general practice to medical education: expectations and fulfillment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lloyd, M H; Rosenthal, J J

1992-11-01

The aim of this study was to discover what students expected to learn during their fourth-year general practice attachment, to compare this with their GP tutors' expectations and to determine the extent to which the students' expectations were fulfilled. Questionnaires were used to gather this information; students completed them on the first and last days of the 4-week attachment and tutors shortly after the attachment. Students and their tutors had the highest expectations of the course in helping to raise awareness of the psychological and social aspects of ill health and develop clinical decision-making and management skills. At the end of the course students thought that they had gained most in these areas. Both students and tutors had lower expectations of the course helping to develop physical examination and practical skills and to improve knowledge in certain clinical areas. These were also rated lowest in terms of fulfillment. This study was carried out at a time when it is being suggested that more undergraduate teaching should take place in general practice and that this could include the teaching of practical skills and clinical subjects traditionally associated with hospital-based teaching. The results suggest that the expectations of students and GP tutors would need to be modified, as well as extra resources provided, if there is to be a shift in teaching towards the community.

The irradiation of human volunteer subjects in research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosen, R.

1980-01-01

In medical research radiation is sometimes used to obtain data from healthy individuals. These subjects gain no specific benefit from the research. To safeguard their welfare, constraints are imposed on the dose to be received, on the selection of volunteer subjects, on ensuring their understanding of the procedures and risks, and on obtaining their free consent to participate. The research proposals are assessed by peer review prior to being approved by the host institution. The first example presented describes the use of diagnostic radiography to obtain in vivo data on the femur bone. Conservative dosimetry indicates an expected dose-equivalent per film of 0.5 mSv in bone and 0.18 mSv in bone marrow and gonad tissue. The critical organ total dose-equivalent is estimated to be 7% of the dose-equivalent limit for a volunteer. The second example involves the internal administration of radioactive tracers. Dosimetric calculations indicate an expected whole-body dose-equivalent of 0.5 mSv in the case of C-14 and 0.37 mSv in the case of H-3, these values bejng 10% and 7% of the relevant dose-equivalent limit. Both proposals were given conditional approval. In the generalized research use of volunteer human subjects the rights of the subject, the investigator and the institution need to be protected. At the University of New South Wales procedures have been introduced to govern all experjmental procedures involving human subjects. Some interesting problems which have arisen are discussed. (author)

Integrated Transport Planning Framework Involving Combined Utility Regret Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Yang; Monzon, Andres; Di Ciommo, Floridea

2014-01-01

Sustainable transport planning requires an integrated approach involving strategic planning, impact analysis, and multicriteria evaluation. This study aimed at relaxing the utility-based decision-making assumption by newly embedding anticipated-regret and combined utility regret decision mechanisms...... in a framework for integrated transport planning. The framework consisted of a two-round Delphi survey, integrated land use and transport model for Madrid, and multicriteria analysis. Results show that (a) the regret-based ranking has a similar mean but larger variance than the utility-based ranking does, (b......) the least-regret scenario forms a compromise between the desired and the expected scenarios, (c) the least-regret scenario can lead to higher user benefits in the short term and lower user benefits in the long term, (d) the utility-based, the regret-based, and the combined utility- and regret...

Delays help German utilities maintain self-financing ratios. [Financing nuclear power projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Radtke, G [Dresden Bank, AG (Germany, F.R.)

1979-05-01

Estimates of electricity consumption have been substantially reduced and nuclear plant is now expected to be 22% of total generating capacity in 1985 instead of the earlier forecast of 36%. The decline in the ordering of new plant has benefited the financial position of the electricity utilities and the expected fall in self-financing ratios has not occurred.

Energy Data Base: subject categories and scope

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bost, D.E.

1985-03-01

The subject scope of the Energy Data Base (EDB) encompasses all DOE-sponsored research. Broadly defined, EDB subject scope includes all technological aspects of energy production, conversion, and efficient utilization, and the economic, social, and political aspects as well. Scope notes are provided to define the extent of interest in certain subject areas, particularly areas of basic research. Cross references between categories are provided to aid both the categorization of information and its retrieval. Citations entered into DOE's computerized bibliographic information system are assigned six-digit subject category numbers to broadly group information for storage, retrieval, and manipulation. These numbers are used in the preparation of printed documents, such as bibliographies and abstract journals, to arrange the citations and to aid searching on the DOE/RECON on-line system

Subjective Well-Being in Rural India: The Curse of Conspicuous Consumption

Science.gov (United States)

Linssen, Rik; van Kempen, Luuk; Kraaykamp, Gerbert

2011-01-01

Using data on 697 individuals from 375 rural low income households in India, we test expectations on the effects of relative income and conspicuous consumption on subjective well-being. The results of the multi-level regression analyses show that individuals who spent more on conspicuous consumption report lower levels of subjective well-being.…

An Empirical Assessment of the Form of Utility Functions

Science.gov (United States)

Kirby, Kris N.

2011-01-01

Utility functions, which relate subjective value to physical attributes of experience, are fundamental to most decision theories. Seven experiments were conducted to test predictions of the most widely assumed mathematical forms of utility (power, log, and negative exponential), and a function proposed by Rachlin (1992). For pairs of gambles for…

Self-Esteem and Achievement Expectation for White and Negro Children. Curriculum Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Guggenheim, Fred

The relationship between self-esteem, academic expectations, and ethnic group membership was studied in a New York City elementary school which had an approximately equal enrollment of Negro, white, and Spanish-background pupils. Subjects were 162 sixth-grade students who were tested with two projective tests and one specifically designed…

A Bayesian truth serum for subjective data.

Science.gov (United States)

Prelec, Drazen

2004-10-15

Subjective judgments, an essential information source for science and policy, are problematic because there are no public criteria for assessing judgmental truthfulness. I present a scoring method for eliciting truthful subjective data in situations where objective truth is unknowable. The method assigns high scores not to the most common answers but to the answers that are more common than collectively predicted, with predictions drawn from the same population. This simple adjustment in the scoring criterion removes all bias in favor of consensus: Truthful answers maximize expected score even for respondents who believe that their answer represents a minority view.

Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy: a life table analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

DuGoff, Eva H; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Buttorff, Christine; Leff, Bruce; Anderson, Gerard F

2014-08-01

The number of people living with multiple chronic conditions is increasing, but we know little about the impact of multimorbidity on life expectancy. We analyze life expectancy in Medicare beneficiaries by number of chronic conditions. A retrospective cohort study using single-decrement period life tables. Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, and Alzheimer disease), and number of comorbid conditions. Comorbidity was measured as a count of conditions collected by Chronic Conditions Warehouse and the Charlson Comorbidity Index. Life expectancy decreases with each additional chronic condition. A 67-year-old individual with no chronic conditions will live on average 22.6 additional years. A 67-year-old individual with 5 chronic conditions and ≥10 chronic conditions will live 7.7 fewer years and 17.6 fewer years, respectively. The average marginal decline in life expectancy is 1.8 years with each additional chronic condition-ranging from 0.4 fewer years with the first condition to 2.6 fewer years with the sixth condition. These results are consistent by sex and race. We observe differences in life expectancy by selected conditions at 67, but these differences diminish with age and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency.

The expected well-being of urban refugees and asylum-seekers in Johannesburg

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Talita Greyling

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The influx of asylum-seekers and refugees from across Africa into democratic South Africa has increased significantly. The aim of this paper is to determine the factors that influences the expect well-being of this unique group. Expected well-being is an important determinant of both the decision to migrate and the choice of a country of destination. Knowledge about this determinant therefore informs refugee policies. The results show that only a few of the factors found in the literature explaining the expected well-being of voluntary migrants also explain the expected well-being of forced migrants. However, a number of factors found in the literature that explain the subjective well-being and well-being in general of refugees and asylum-seekers also went towards explaining the expected well-being of this group. These factors include: government assistance, culture, the time spent in South Africa, economic factors, crime, refugee status, reasons for leaving the home countries and the number of people staying in a house in the receiving country. The findings of this study emphasise the differences between forced and voluntary migrants and highlight the factors that influence the expected well-being of forced migrants. These in turn shed light on migration decisions and the choice of destination countries.

The Integration of Renewable Energy Sources into Electric Power Distribution Systems, Vol. II Utility Case Assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zaininger, H.W.

1994-01-01

Electric utility distribution system impacts associated with the integration of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind turbines (WT) are considered in this project. The impacts are expected to vary from site to site according to the following characteristics: the local solar insolation and/or wind characteristics, renewable energy source penetration level, whether battery or other energy storage systems are applied, and local utility distribution design standards and planning practices. Small, distributed renewable energy sources are connected to the utility distribution system like other, similar kW- and MW-scale equipment and loads. Residential applications are expected to be connected to single-phase 120/240-V secondaries. Larger kW-scale applications may be connected to three+phase secondaries, and larger hundred-kW and y-scale applications, such as MW-scale windfarms, or PV plants, may be connected to electric utility primary systems via customer-owned primary and secondary collection systems. In any case, the installation of small, distributed renewable energy sources is expected to have a significant impact on local utility distribution primary and secondary system economics. Small, distributed renewable energy sources installed on utility distribution systems will also produce nonsite-specific utility generation system benefits such as energy and capacity displacement benefits, in addition to the local site-specific distribution system benefits. Although generation system benefits are not site-specific, they are utility-specific, and they vary significantly among utilities in different regions. In addition, transmission system benefits, environmental benefits and other benefits may apply. These benefits also vary significantly among utilities and regions. Seven utility case studies considering PV, WT, and battery storage were conducted to identify a range of potential renewable energy source distribution system applications. The

Synergistic Effects of Expectancy and Value on Homework Engagement: The Case for a Within-Person Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagengast, Benjamin; Trautwein, Ulrich; Kelava, Augustin; Lüdtke, Oliver

2013-05-01

Historically, expectancy-value models of motivation assumed a synergistic relation between expectancy and value: motivation is high only when both expectancy and value are high. Motivational processes were studied from a within-person perspective, with expectancies and values being assessed or experimentally manipulated across multiple domains and the focus being placed on intraindividual differences. In contrast, contemporary expectancy-value models in educational psychology concentrate almost exclusively on linear effects of expectancy and value on motivational outcomes, with a focus on between-person differences. Recent advances in latent variable methodology allow both issues to be addressed in observational studies. Using the expectancy-value model of homework motivation as a theoretical framework, this study estimated multilevel structural equation models with latent interactions in a sample of 511 secondary school students and found synergistic effects between domain-specific homework expectancy and homework value in predicting homework engagement in 6 subjects. This approach not only brings the "×" back into expectancy-value theory but also reestablishes the within-person perspective as the appropriate level of analysis for latent expectancy-value models.

Best Practice Life Expectancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Medford, Anthony

2017-01-01

been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

Report on progress of researches by common utilization of JAERI nuclear facilities, for fiscal, 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-08-01

The results of the joint researches by utilizing the facilities of JAERI in 1991 fiscal year were summarized, and this report was able to be completed. Many researchers in whole Japan took part in many themes, and the very significant results were obtained. Now this joint research has reached the great turnabout period. The reconstructed JRR-3M was offered for joint utilization since April, 1991, and the utilization for neutron diffraction and scattering increased largely. As for the ion irradiation facility in Takasaki Research Establishment, the partial operation will be started in the next year, and the joint utilization is expected to begin. Accompanying the diversification of the utilization of facilities, in order to properly meet the needs of users, the thorough revision of the system seems necessary. The number of research themes in 1991 was 222 cases. JRR-3M accomplished the joint utilization operation of 8 cycles as expected, but JRR-2 caused a trouble during 5th cycle, and the operation thereafter was canceled. In this book, 159 reports are collected. (K.I.)

Analysis of status of radiation/radioisotopes utilization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Chan Hee; Lee, Seung Hyun; Kim, Na Kyung; Kim, Kon Wuk [Business Innovation Office, Korean Association for Radiation Application, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2017-03-15

The use of radiation and radioisotopes in Korea has been increasing each year, and its impact on economy and industry is expected to be increasing progressively following the development of industrial technology and the expansion of their usage. To establish and supporting policies for industries using radiation and radioisotopes, it is necessary to check the status of related industries accurately, as well as to gather data required to establish plans for industrial development by studying both revenues and economic scale (contributing to revenue). o analyze the status of utilization, surveys were carried out on 6,621 organizations engaged in nuclear operations handling radiation and radioisotopes pursuant to the Nuclear Safety Act as of end 2014, on 33,471 medical institutions using radiation generators for medical and diagnostic purposes pursuant to the Medical Service Act, and on 2,218 organizations using radiation generators for animal diagnostics pursuant to the Veterinary License Act. he overall status of the domestic radiation market including the number of user organizations, that of employees, and the size of distributions (imports, productions, and exports) with which the scale of domestic radiation market can be judged showed a growth trend compared to the previous year, though the number of employees for radiation operation in industrial sector, research sector, education sector, military sector, and power plants (nuclear power plants) and the size of imports was reduced somewhat. t is expected that data acquired through periodic surveys on the status of utilization would be utilized practically in establishing governmental policies related to the promotion of usage of radiation and radioisotopes, and also be utilized widely in cultivating and developing the industry efficiently to invigorate the related industries.

Analysis of status of radiation/radioisotopes utilization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Chan Hee; Lee, Seung Hyun; Kim, Na Kyung; Kim, Kon Wuk

2017-01-01

The use of radiation and radioisotopes in Korea has been increasing each year, and its impact on economy and industry is expected to be increasing progressively following the development of industrial technology and the expansion of their usage. To establish and supporting policies for industries using radiation and radioisotopes, it is necessary to check the status of related industries accurately, as well as to gather data required to establish plans for industrial development by studying both revenues and economic scale (contributing to revenue). o analyze the status of utilization, surveys were carried out on 6,621 organizations engaged in nuclear operations handling radiation and radioisotopes pursuant to the Nuclear Safety Act as of end 2014, on 33,471 medical institutions using radiation generators for medical and diagnostic purposes pursuant to the Medical Service Act, and on 2,218 organizations using radiation generators for animal diagnostics pursuant to the Veterinary License Act. he overall status of the domestic radiation market including the number of user organizations, that of employees, and the size of distributions (imports, productions, and exports) with which the scale of domestic radiation market can be judged showed a growth trend compared to the previous year, though the number of employees for radiation operation in industrial sector, research sector, education sector, military sector, and power plants (nuclear power plants) and the size of imports was reduced somewhat. t is expected that data acquired through periodic surveys on the status of utilization would be utilized practically in establishing governmental policies related to the promotion of usage of radiation and radioisotopes, and also be utilized widely in cultivating and developing the industry efficiently to invigorate the related industries

The RWE utility - a beaming giant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoefer-Bosse, T.; Mez, L.; Moeller, F.; Osnowski, R.; Rebentisch, M.; Theissen, A.; Uka, W.

1984-01-01

West Germany's biggest electric utility has become the subject of gossip. Formerly only known - if ever - as the sender of electricity bills, the Rheinisch-Westfaelisches Elektrizitaetswerk (RWE) now is talked about and brought in for controversial issues in the field of energy and environmental policy. The book deals with the history of the RWE utility, developing from a municipal utility to the Federal Republic's biggest electricity supplier, the people that have given guidance and support to RWE, the highly interesting system of owner-ship rights, the role of RWE as a contributor to environmental pollution, the interlockings and manifold interests, the utility's behaviour and attitude in the nuclear business, the ingenious business policy at the taxpayers' expense, chances of exerting an impact on, or developing means of resistance against, the business policy of RWE. (orig./HP) [de

Transactional price of an expected child and its application in birth control.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, X

1993-01-01

The theoretical presentation of the impact of the transactional price of an expected child (TPEC) on birth control led to the conclusion that successful birth control was a combination of birth utility theory and TPEC theory. In a hypothetical market, the assumption can be made that an expected price can be attached to a desired child or a transactional price can be attached for giving up the reproductive right to have an excess child. A consumer equilibrium model can characterize the changes in financial resources necessary in deciding on an appropriate number of children. In a general equilibrium model, couples would have to be compensated a certain amount as an inducement to forgo the right to have a second child. Prices of children can be determined by a distributional curve of this transactional price of expected excess children and the estimated marginal price for couples with two children. Under circumstances of limited resources, it would be cheaper to buy some couple's rights to forgo a child, and this price would vary with parity. The exact transactional price of each child by parity by each couple could be theoretically determined, if all couples told the truth about desired number of children. However, the complication is that this condition may not be possible, and couples may charge more for forgoing the right to a subsequent child that what they would actually accept. Also, the seller could ask one price and then charge more. A compromise would be to set prices only for lower parities and to set prices subject to the total funds available to the buyer. Very low prices would also decrease the effectiveness of birth control. The government could be a buyer or seller. Taxing couples for additional children would make the government a seller. When the government is the buyer, couples would be compensated for not having an additional child. Another possibility is a reward for having only a certain number of children and a tax for excess children, which

Maternal Expectations for Toddlers' Reactions to Novelty: Relations of Maternal Internalizing Symptoms and Parenting Dimensions to Expectations and Accuracy of Expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiel, Elizabeth J; Buss, Kristin A

2010-07-03

OBJECTIVE: Although maternal internalizing symptoms and parenting dimensions have been linked to reports and perceptions of children's behavior, it remains relatively unknown whether these characteristics relate to expectations or the accuracy of expectations for toddlers' responses to novel situations. DESIGN: A community sample of 117 mother-toddler dyads participated in a laboratory visit and questionnaire completion. At the laboratory, mothers were interviewed about their expectations for their toddlers' behaviors in a variety of novel tasks; toddlers then participated in these activities, and trained coders scored their behaviors. Mothers completed questionnaires assessing demographics, depressive and worry symptoms, and parenting dimensions. RESULTS: Mothers who reported more worry expected their toddlers to display more fearful behavior during the laboratory tasks, but worry did not moderate how accurately maternal expectations predicted toddlers' observed behavior. When also reporting a low level of authoritative-responsive parenting, maternal depressive symptoms moderated the association between maternal expectations and observed toddler behavior, such that, as depressive symptoms increased, maternal expectations related less strongly to toddler behavior. CONCLUSIONS: When mothers were asked about their expectations for their toddlers' behavior in the same novel situations from which experimenters observe this behavior, symptoms and parenting had minimal effect on the accuracy of mothers' expectations. When in the context of low authoritative-responsive parenting, however, depressive symptoms related to less accurate predictions of their toddlers' fearful behavior.

Maternal Expectations for Toddlers’ Reactions to Novelty: Relations of Maternal Internalizing Symptoms and Parenting Dimensions to Expectations and Accuracy of Expectations

Science.gov (United States)

Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Buss, Kristin A.

2010-01-01

SYNOPSIS Objective Although maternal internalizing symptoms and parenting dimensions have been linked to reports and perceptions of children’s behavior, it remains relatively unknown whether these characteristics relate to expectations or the accuracy of expectations for toddlers’ responses to novel situations. Design A community sample of 117 mother-toddler dyads participated in a laboratory visit and questionnaire completion. At the laboratory, mothers were interviewed about their expectations for their toddlers’ behaviors in a variety of novel tasks; toddlers then participated in these activities, and trained coders scored their behaviors. Mothers completed questionnaires assessing demographics, depressive and worry symptoms, and parenting dimensions. Results Mothers who reported more worry expected their toddlers to display more fearful behavior during the laboratory tasks, but worry did not moderate how accurately maternal expectations predicted toddlers’ observed behavior. When also reporting a low level of authoritative-responsive parenting, maternal depressive symptoms moderated the association between maternal expectations and observed toddler behavior, such that, as depressive symptoms increased, maternal expectations related less strongly to toddler behavior. Conclusions When mothers were asked about their expectations for their toddlers’ behavior in the same novel situations from which experimenters observe this behavior, symptoms and parenting had minimal effect on the accuracy of mothers’ expectations. When in the context of low authoritative-responsive parenting, however, depressive symptoms related to less accurate predictions of their toddlers’ fearful behavior. PMID:21037974

2000 survey of window manufacturers on the subject of switchable glass

Science.gov (United States)

LaPointe, Michael R.; Sottile, Gregory M.

2001-11-01

The results of a 2000 survey of United States window manufacturers on the subject of switchable glass are discussed. The areas covered in this paper include awareness of the overall product category of switchable glass and various types of switchable glass, attitudes toward specific features of switchable glass, expectations for manufacturer production of such products, expectations for market penetration rates among end-product consumers, levels of price sensitivity among window manufacturers regarding switchable glass, and expectations for the pace of new product development within the window industry over the next five years.

Differentiation chronic post traumatic stress disorder patients from healthy subjects using objective and subjective sleep-related parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Tahmasian, Masoud; Jamalabadi, Hamidreza; Abedini, Mina; Ghadami, Mohammad R; Sepehry, Amir A; Knight, David C; Khazaie, Habibolah

2017-05-22

Sleep disturbance is common in chronic post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, prior work has demonstrated that there are inconsistencies between subjective and objective assessments of sleep disturbance in PTSD. Therefore, we investigated whether subjective or objective sleep assessment has greater clinical utility to differentiate PTSD patients from healthy subjects. Further, we evaluated whether the combination of subjective and objective methods improves the accuracy of classification into patient versus healthy groups, which has important diagnostic implications. We recruited 32 chronic war-induced PTSD patients and 32 age- and gender-matched healthy subjects to participate in this study. Subjective (i.e. from three self-reported sleep questionnaires) and objective sleep-related data (i.e. from actigraphy scores) were collected from each participant. Subjective, objective, and combined (subjective and objective) sleep data were then analyzed using support vector machine classification. The classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for subjective variables were 89.2%, 89.3%, and 89%, respectively. The classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for objective variables were 65%, 62.3%, and 67.8%, respectively. The classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for the aggregate variables (combination of subjective and objective variables) were 91.6%, 93.0%, and 90.3%, respectively. Our findings indicate that classification accuracy using subjective measurements is superior to objective measurements and the combination of both assessments appears to improve the classification accuracy for differentiating PTSD patients from healthy individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rough Set Theory based prognostication of life expectancy for terminally ill patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Gil-Herrera, Eleazar; Yalcin, Ali; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Barnes, Laura E; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2011-01-01

We present a novel knowledge discovery methodology that relies on Rough Set Theory to predict the life expectancy of terminally ill patients in an effort to improve the hospice referral process. Life expectancy prognostication is particularly valuable for terminally ill patients since it enables them and their families to initiate end-of-life discussions and choose the most desired management strategy for the remainder of their lives. We utilize retrospective data from 9105 patients to demonstrate the design and implementation details of a series of classifiers developed to identify potential hospice candidates. Preliminary results confirm the efficacy of the proposed methodology. We envision our work as a part of a comprehensive decision support system designed to assist terminally ill patients in making end-of-life care decisions.

Measuring inequity aversion in a heterogeneous population using experimental decisions and subjective probabilities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bellemare, C.; Kroger, S.; van Soest, A.H.O.

2008-01-01

We combine choice data in the ultimatum game with the expectations of proposers elicited by subjective probability questions to estimate a structural model of decision making under uncertainty. The model, estimated using a large representative sample of subjects from the Dutch population, allows

Childbirth expectations and correlates at the final stage of pregnancy in Chinese expectant parents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xian Zhang

2014-06-01

Conclusion: This study adds to understanding of the childbirth expectations of Chinese expectant parents. It is suggested that maternity healthcare providers pay close attention to the childbirth expectations of expectant parents, and improve the nursing care service to promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction of expectant parents.

Harm beliefs and coping expectancies in youth with specific phobias.

Science.gov (United States)

Ollendick, Thomas H; Öst, Lars-Göran; Ryan, Sarah M; Capriola, Nicole N; Reuterskiöld, Lena

2017-04-01

Catastrophic beliefs and lowered coping expectancies are often present in individuals with specific phobias (SPs). The current study examined these beliefs and expectancies in 251 youth who received One Session Treatment for one of the three most common types of SP in youth (animals, natural environment, and situational). We compared the children's subjective beliefs to objective ratings of the likelihood of occurrence and the dangerousness of the feared events. Results revealed pre-treatment differences in the youths' beliefs across phobia types and age. Specifically, children with animal phobias rated their beliefs as more likely to occur than did children with environmental and situational phobias. In addition, older children rated their beliefs as more dangerous than younger children. However, regardless of phobia type or child age, the beliefs improved following treatment. Changes in catastrophic beliefs and coping expectancies were related to changes in clinical severity following treatment but not 6-months following treatment. Moreover, at pre-treatment, children viewed their beliefs as significantly more catastrophic and likely to occur than did independent coders of these beliefs; however, these differences were no longer evident following treatment. Clinical implications are discussed, highlighting how changes in beliefs and expectancies might be associated with treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sequential, solid-phase assay for biotin in physiologic fluids that correlates with expected biotin status

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mock, D.M.; DuBois, D.B.

1986-01-01

Interest in accurate measurement of biotin concentrations in plasma and urine has been stimulated by recent advances in the understanding of biotin-responsive inborn errors of metabolism and by several reports describing acquired biotin deficiency during parenteral alimentation. This paper presents a biotin assay utilizing radiolabeled avidin in a sequential, solid-phase method; the assay has increased sensitivity compared to previous methods (greater than or equal to 10 fmol/tube), correlates with expected trends in biotin concentrations in blood and urine in a rat model of biotin deficiency, and can utilize commercially available radiolabeled avidin

prevalence and correlates of utilization of health facilities in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Musumali

2007-10-11

Oct 11, 2007 ... of the expectant women did not deliver at a health facility ... health service utilization for childbirth such as education5-8, maternal age 3,6, parity6,8, economic status7, cultural factors and beliefs, lack of skilled staff at primary.

Time management problems and discounted utility.

Science.gov (United States)

König, Cornelius J; Kleinmann, Martin

2007-05-01

The lens of behavioral decision theory offers a new perspective for research on time management. The basic idea of this approach is that people discount future consequences of their time management decisions, meaning that they work on tasks with smaller but sooner outcomes rather than on tasks with larger but later outcomes. The authors performed 2 experimental studies to test whether people are sensitive to differences in the discounted utility of time management decisions. In Experiment 1, they used vignettes of typical time management situations; Experiment 2 was a laboratory simulation (an in-basket task that was part of a training assessment). Participants in both studies were German students. As expected, manipulating the discounted utility of options resulted in different time management decisions. In Experiment 1, reactions to time management situations were judged as less likely if the reactions had lower discounted utilities. In Experiment 2, people spent less time on an interruption.

The subjectivity of scientists and the Bayesian approach

CERN Document Server

Press, James S

2001-01-01

Comparing and contrasting the reality of subjectivity in the work of history's great scientists and the modern Bayesian approach to statistical analysisScientists and researchers are taught to analyze their data from an objective point of view, allowing the data to speak for themselves rather than assigning them meaning based on expectations or opinions. But scientists have never behaved fully objectively. Throughout history, some of our greatest scientific minds have relied on intuition, hunches, and personal beliefs to make sense of empirical data-and these subjective influences have often a

FAIR VALUE: UTILITY AND LIMITS

OpenAIRE

Valentin Gabriel Cristea

2015-01-01

This paper presents the utility and the limits of the fair value. We believe that any new product must be tried and tested before being imposed on the market and must be accepted by all potential users and those who will be affected, directly or indirectly and its advantages, disadvantages, risks, its cost must be predetermined and analyzed in a comprehensive and objective.We ask: Do financial statements at fair value meet users' expectations? The requirement to use fair value pricing mode...

Estimating the relative utility of screening mammography.

Science.gov (United States)

Abbey, Craig K; Eckstein, Miguel P; Boone, John M

2013-05-01

The concept of diagnostic utility is a fundamental component of signal detection theory, going back to some of its earliest works. Attaching utility values to the various possible outcomes of a diagnostic test should, in principle, lead to meaningful approaches to evaluating and comparing such systems. However, in many areas of medical imaging, utility is not used because it is presumed to be unknown. In this work, we estimate relative utility (the utility benefit of a detection relative to that of a correct rejection) for screening mammography using its known relation to the slope of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve at the optimal operating point. The approach assumes that the clinical operating point is optimal for the goal of maximizing expected utility and therefore the slope at this point implies a value of relative utility for the diagnostic task, for known disease prevalence. We examine utility estimation in the context of screening mammography using the Digital Mammographic Imaging Screening Trials (DMIST) data. We show how various conditions can influence the estimated relative utility, including characteristics of the rating scale, verification time, probability model, and scope of the ROC curve fit. Relative utility estimates range from 66 to 227. We argue for one particular set of conditions that results in a relative utility estimate of 162 (±14%). This is broadly consistent with values in screening mammography determined previously by other means. At the disease prevalence found in the DMIST study (0.59% at 365-day verification), optimal ROC slopes are near unity, suggesting that utility-based assessments of screening mammography will be similar to those found using Youden's index.

Diverse Expected Gradient Active Learning for Relative Attributes.

Science.gov (United States)

You, Xinge; Wang, Ruxin; Tao, Dacheng

2014-06-02

The use of relative attributes for semantic understanding of images and videos is a promising way to improve communication between humans and machines. However, it is extremely labor- and time-consuming to define multiple attributes for each instance in large amount of data. One option is to incorporate active learning, so that the informative samples can be actively discovered and then labeled. However, most existing active-learning methods select samples one at a time (serial mode), and may therefore lose efficiency when learning multiple attributes. In this paper, we propose a batch-mode active-learning method, called Diverse Expected Gradient Active Learning (DEGAL). This method integrates an informativeness analysis and a diversity analysis to form a diverse batch of queries. Specifically, the informativeness analysis employs the expected pairwise gradient length as a measure of informativeness, while the diversity analysis forces a constraint on the proposed diverse gradient angle. Since simultaneous optimization of these two parts is intractable, we utilize a two-step procedure to obtain the diverse batch of queries. A heuristic method is also introduced to suppress imbalanced multi-class distributions. Empirical evaluations of three different databases demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Vision 2021. The utilities future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liere, J van [KEMA, Arnhem (Netherlands)

1996-12-01

The electricity industry is gradually making the transition to a free market economy characterized by competition. With the arrival of a more market-oriented structure, the electricity companies have taken measures to reduce costs while retaining reliability and safety of the production and distribution. Today the majority of these efforts are oriented towards optimizing the scope and the structure of the organizations and towards streamlining internal processes in order to improve productivity. Throughout the world, the increasing competition among utilities is accompanied by the unbundling of production, transport, distribution and customer service functions. There is a remarkable similarity between the transitions in the computer industry some years ago (from main frame to personal PC`s) and in the electric utility industry today. The new structure is expected to be less centralized and more dispersed. In the dispersed generation concept the locally deployed power plant must become smaller, more flexible, more efficient and less expensive than today`s power plants. Power generation is gradually changing from a steam cycle (Rankine cycle) via the combined cycle to the gas cycle (Brayton cycle). The fuel used to power the gas turbine is expected to change in the future from high calorific to low calorific gas, generated from biomass, waste, oil residues, blast furnaces, coal, etc. Five new areas to be addressed have been identified that can be characterized as follows: (a) improved utilization of capital-intensive production resources to reduce costs, (b) electrification and the supply of heat to increase sales and market share, (c) sustainable developments to broaden our future resource base, (d) improved efficiency based on the Brayton cycle to increase flexibility, (e) development of energy services with new secondary services to stay in the market. (EG) 10 refs.

Gender, Ethnicity, and Their Intersectionality in the Prediction of Smoking Outcome Expectancies in Regular Cigarette Smokers.

Science.gov (United States)

Aguirre, Claudia G; Bello, Mariel S; Andrabi, Nafeesa; Pang, Raina D; Hendricks, Peter S; Bluthenthal, Ricky N; Leventhal, Adam M

2016-01-01

The current study utilized the intersectionality framework to explore whether smoking outcome expectancies (i.e., cognitions about the anticipated effects of smoking) were predicted by gender and ethnicity, and the gender-by-ethnicity interaction. In a cross-sectional design, daily smokers from the general community (32.2% women; non-Hispanic African American [n = 175], non-Hispanic White [n = 109], or Hispanic [n = 26]) completed self-report measures on smoking expectancies and other co-factors. Results showed that women reported greater negative reinforcement (i.e., anticipated smoking-induced negative affect reduction) and weight control (i.e., anticipated smoking-induced appetite/weight suppression) expectancies than men. Hispanic (vs. African American or White) smokers endorsed greater negative reinforcement expectancies. A gender-by-ethnicity interaction was found for weight control expectancies, such that White women reported greater weight control expectancies than White men, but no gender differences among African American and Hispanic smokers were found. These findings suggest that gender, ethnicity, and their intersectionality should be considered in research on cognitive mechanisms that may contribute to tobacco-related health disparities. © The Author(s) 2015.

Life Expectancy in Police Officers: A Comparison with the U.S. General Population

Science.gov (United States)

Violanti, John M.; Hartley, Tara A.; Gu, Ja K.; Fekedulegn, Desta; Andrew, Michael E.; Burchfiel, Cecil M.

2016-01-01

Previous epidemiological research indicates that police officers have an elevated risk of death relative to the general population overall and for several specific causes. Despite the increased risk for mortality found in previous research, controversy still exists over the life expectancy of police officers. The goal of the present study was to compare life expectancy of male police officers from Buffalo New York with the U.S. general male population utilizing an abridged life table method. On average, the life expectancy of Buffalo police officers in our sample was significantly lower than the U.S. population (mean difference in life expectancy =21.9 years; 95% CI: 14.5-29.3; ppolice officers was shorter and differences were more pronounced in younger age categories. Additionally, police officers had a significantly higher average probability of death than did males in the general population (mean difference= 0.40; 95% CI: 0.26,-0.54; ppolice officers was 21 times larger than that of the general population (Buffalo male officers vs. U.S. males = 21.7, 95% CI: 5.8-37.7). Possible reasons for shorter life expectancy among police are discussed, including stress, shift work, obesity, and hazardous environmental work exposures. PMID:24707585

Enhancing Interest and Performance with a Utility Value Intervention

Science.gov (United States)

Hulleman, Chris S.; Godes, Olga; Hendricks, Bryan L.; Harackiewicz, Judith M.

2010-01-01

We tested whether a utility value intervention (via manipulated relevance) influenced interest and performance on a task and whether this intervention had different effects depending on an individual's performance expectations or prior performance. Interest was defined as triggered situational interest (i.e., affective and emotional task…

Development of coal energy utilization technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-09-01

Coal liquefaction produces new and clean energy by performing hydrogenation, decomposition and liquefaction on coal under high temperatures and pressures. NEDO has been developing bituminous coal liquefaction technologies by using a 150-t/d pilot plant. It has also developed quality improving and utilization technologies for liquefied coal, whose practical use is expected. For developing coal gasification technologies, construction is in progress for a 200-t/d pilot plant for spouted bed gasification power generation. NEDO intends to develop coal gasification composite cycle power generation with high efficiency and of environment harmonious type. This paper summarizes the results obtained during fiscal 1994. It also dwells on technologies to manufacture hydrogen from coal. It further describes development of technologies to manufacture methane and substituting natural gas (SNG) by hydrogenating and gasifying coal. The ARCH process can select three operation modes depending on which of SNG yield, thermal efficiency or BTX yield is targeted. With respect to promotion of coal utilization technologies, description is given on surveys on development of next generation technologies for coal utilization, and clean coal technology promotion projects. International coal utilization and application projects are also described. 9 figs., 3 tabs.

The future of retirement and the pension system : How the public's expectations vary over time and across socio-economic groups

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bissonnette, L.; van Soest, A.H.O.

2012-01-01

We analyze expectations of the Dutch population ages 25 and older concerning future generosity of state and occupational pensions, the main pillars of the Dutch pension system. We use rotating panel data with monthly observations from 2006 until 2012 on individuals’ subjective expectations

Investigating cardiovascular patients' preferences and expectations regarding the use of social media in health education.

Science.gov (United States)

Eshah, Nidal F

2018-02-01

To reach more people in the community, health educators have considered employing social media alongside traditional health education methods. To understand the preferences and expectations of patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) regarding the use of social media in health education. To assess the association between patients' socio-demographics with their preferences and expectations about the use of social media in health education. This is a cross-sectional descriptive study, which included 135 subjects with an established diagnosis of CVDs. The subjects were met at three cardiac outpatient clinics and recruited through a convenience sampling technique. They were recruited if they were adults, oriented and diagnosed with the CVDs for at least six months. Most subjects (50.3%) were interested in receiving health education through social media, and 74.8% of them felt that using social media in health education would improve the process and lead to better outcomes. Preference for social media was significantly related to younger age, higher education, lower income, watching health education programmes on television, positive family history of CVDs, and currently has a job. Furthermore, higher positive expectations regarding using social media in health education were significantly related to higher education, watching health education programmes on television, being single, and currently has a job. Subjects with CVDs are enthusiastic about health education through social media, believing that it will be good for educating them and providing them with the up-to-date information they need to live with their diseases. Findings of this study may positively contribute to the international efforts of improving health education through employing social media to improve accessibility to health education materials, and consequently decrease the burden of CVDs.

On the Computation of Optimal Monotone Mean-Variance Portfolios via Truncated Quadratic Utility

OpenAIRE

Ales Cerný; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci; Aldo Rustichini

2008-01-01

We report a surprising link between optimal portfolios generated by a special type of variational preferences called divergence preferences (cf. [8]) and optimal portfolios generated by classical expected utility. As a special case we connect optimization of truncated quadratic utility (cf. [2]) to the optimal monotone mean-variance portfolios (cf. [9]), thus simplifying the computation of the latter.

A parameter-free analysis of the utility of money for the general population under prospect theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Booij, A.S.; van de Kuilen, G.

2009-01-01

Extensive data has convincingly demonstrated that expected utility, the reigning economic theory of rational decision making, fails descriptively. This descriptive failure casts doubt on the validity of classical utility measurements. Prospect theory can better explain choice behaviour because it

Ethnic minority youth in youth mental health care : utilization and dropout

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haan, Anna Marte de

2014-01-01

This thesis focuses on differences between ethnic groups in youth mental health care (YMHC). Three subjects are elaborated: utilization of YMHC, given diagnoses in YMHC, and premature termination (dropout) of therapy in YMHC. The utilization of YMHC services is unequally distributed over different

Empirical prediction of ash deposition propensities in coal-fired utilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frandsen, F.

1997-01-01

This report contain an outline of some of the ash chemistry indices utilized in the EPREDEPO (Empirical PREdiction of DEPOsition) PC-program, version 1.0 (DEPO10), developed by Flemming Frandsen, The CHEC Research Programme, at the Department of Chemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark. DEPO10 is a 1st generation FTN77 Fortran PC-programme designed to empirically predict ash deposition propensities in coal-fired utility boilers. Expectational data (empirical basis) from an EPRI-sponsored survey of ash deposition experiences at coal-fired utility boilers, performed by Battelle, have been tested for use on Danish coal chemistry - boiler operational conditions, in this study. (au) 31 refs.

Energy policy and nuclear power. Expectations of the power industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harig, H.D.

1995-01-01

In the opinion of the power industry, using nuclear power in Germany is a responsible attitude, while opting out of nuclear power is not. Electricity utilities will build new nuclear power plants only if the structural economic and ecological advantages of nuclear power are preserved and can be exploited in Germany. The power industry will assume responsibility for new complex, capital-intensive nuclear plants only if a broad societal consensus about this policy can be reached in this country. The power industry expects that the present squandering of nuclear power resources in Germany will be stopped. The power industry is prepared to contribute to finding a speedy consensus in energy policy, which would leave open all decisions which must not be taken today, and which would not constrain the freedom of decision of coming generations. The electricity utilities remain committed proponents of nuclear power. However, what they sell to their customers is electricity, not nuclear power. (orig.) [de

Conformity expectations: Differential effects on IVF twins and singletons' parent-child relationships and adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Kayla N; Rueter, Martha A; Connor, Jennifer J; Chen, Muzi; Damario, Mark

2015-08-01

Increased utilization of in vitro fertilization (IVF) to treat infertility has resulted in a growing twin birthrate. Despite early childhood risks, twins have fewer psychosocial problems in middle childhood than singleton children. This study proposes that parents' conformity expectations for children have differential effects on parent-child relationships for twin and singleton children, which indirectly explains twins' more optimum psychosocial adjustment. Parental conformity expectations, parent-child relationship satisfaction, and children's emotional, behavioral, and attention problems were assessed in a sample of 288 6- to 12-year-old IVF-conceived twins and singletons. Overall, parents of twins had higher expectations for child conformity to parent rules than singleton parents. Path models demonstrate that twin status and parental expectations for child conformity interact to influence parent-child relationships, and this interaction indirectly accounted for differences in twins' and singletons' psychosocial adjustment. Findings suggest parenting constructs have differential influences on the association between twin status and parent-child relationships. Parenting research, predominantly conducted with singletons, should be reexamined before applying existing research to twin children and their families. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Parametric utility comparison of coal and nuclear electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maurer, K.M.

1977-02-01

The advantages and limitations of an explicit quantitative model for decision making are discussed. Several different quantitative models are presented, noting that the use of an expected utility maximization decision rule allows both the direct incorporation of multidimensional descriptions of the possible outcomes, and considerations of risk averse behavior. A broad class of utility functions, characterized by linear risk tolerance, was considered and extended to a multidimensional form. Choosing a multivariate risk neutral extension, using constant absolute risk aversion utility functions for monetary effects and for increased mortality, the author indicated how the parameters of this utility function can be selected to represent the decision maker's preferences, and suggest a reasonable range of values for the parameters. After describing an illustrative set of data on the risks inherent in coal burning and nuclear electricity generation facilities, the author used the chosen utility model to compare the overall risks associated with each technology, observing the effect of variations in the utility parameters and in the risk distributions on the implied preferences

Combined utilization of biogas and natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jensen, J.; Tafdrup, S.; Christensen, J.

1997-01-01

The Danish natural gas network has been established during the past 10 years. Running parallel with this a small but growing production of biogas from centralized biogas plants and landfills has been developed. The annual biogas production is expected to keep growing and increase tenfold in the next 25 year period with a reduction of green house gas emissions as one of the important incentives. The last years' development and expansion of the Danish biogas sector has shown a need for combined utilization of biogas and natural gas. If larger volumes of biogas are present, upgrading and distribution by the natural gas network may be an alternative to combined utilization. (au) 12 refs

The impact of individual expectations and expectation conflicts on virtual teams

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosch-Sijtsema, Petra

Virtual teams are characterized by geographical dispersion, organizational, and cultural heterogeneity, and their members have little history and lateral and weak relationships. Literature denotes the importance of expectations in virtual settings, but individual expectations of virtual team members

Neural representation of expected value in the adolescent brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Galván, Adriana

2014-01-28

Previous work shows that the adolescent reward system is hyperactive, but this finding may be confounded by differences in how teens value money. To address this, we examined the neural ontogeny of objective value representation. Adolescent and adult participants performed a monetary gambling task in which they chose to accept or reject gambles of varying expected value. Increasing expected value had a stronger influence over gambling choices in adolescents relative to adults, an effect that was paralleled by greater activation in the ventral striatum in adolescents. This unique adolescent ventral striatum response remained even after matching groups on acceptance behavior. These behavioral and neural data suggest that the value of available options has a greater influence in adolescent versus adult choices, even when objective value and subjective choice are held constant. This research provides further evidence that hyperactivation of reward circuitry in adolescence may be a normative ontogenetic shift that is due to greater valuation in the adolescent brain.

[Home health resource utilization measures using a case-mix adjustor model].

Science.gov (United States)

You, Sun-Ju; Chang, Hyun-Sook

2005-08-01

The purpose of this study was to measure home health resource utilization using a Case-Mix Adjustor Model developed in the U.S. The subjects of this study were 484 patients who had received home health care more than 4 visits during a 60-day episode at 31 home health care institutions. Data on the 484 patients had to be merged onto a 60-day payment segment. Based on the results, the researcher classified home health resource groups (HHRG). The subjects were classified into 34 HHRGs in Korea. Home health resource utilization according to clinical severity was in order of Minimum (C0) service utilization moderate), and the lowest 97,000 won in group C2F3S1, so the former was 5.82 times higher than the latter. Resource utilization in home health care has become an issue of concern due to rising costs for home health care. The results suggest the need for more analytical attention on the utilization and expenditures for home care using a Case-Mix Adjustor Model.

Development of beam utilization/application technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, B H; Kim, Y K; Song, T Y [and others

1999-05-01

High power proton accelerator is considered as one of national fundamental research facilities and a key to advanced nuclear technology development, having been widely used in an un detachable relationship with nuclear research in advanced countries. The high power proton accelerator will be installed in several phases as an up front facility of the nuclear waste transmutation system. It is expected that a common understanding and a general agreement over proper utilization of the accelerator should be deduced and that a user program for beam utilization and application should be firmly established in time for the completion of each phase of the accelerator. This high power proton accelerator will consist of several component accelerators and, from up front, accelerators such as injector, RFQ, CCDTL, etc. will be installed in sequence and deliver respectively at each stage beams of 3MeV, 20MeV, 100Mev, etc. to be variously utilized forindustries, defence industry, medical treatment, environmental protection and basic science research. In order for the accelerator to be fully utilized as a national fundamental research facility beyond nuclear field, it is necessary to formulate a proceeding plan of the user program for the accelerator and to cultivate industrial utilization/application studies of proton beams accelerated by injector or RFQ of the accelerator. (author). 38 refs., 84 tabs., 39 figs.

Development of beam utilization/application technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, B. H.; Kim, Y.K.; Song, T.Y.

1999-05-01

High power proton accelerator is considered as one of national fundamental research facilities and a key to advanced nuclear technology development, having been widely used in an un detachable relationship with nuclear research in advanced countries. The high power proton accelerator will be installed in several phases as an up front facility of the nuclear waste transmutation system. It is expected that a common understanding and a general agreement over proper utilization of the accelerator should be deduced and that a user program for beam utilization and application should be firmly established in time for the completion of each phase of the accelerator. This high power proton accelerator will consist of several component accelerators and, from up front, accelerators such as injector, RFQ, CCDTL, etc. will be installed in sequence and deliver respectively at each stage beams of 3MeV, 20MeV, 100Mev, etc. to be variously utilized for industries, defence industry, medical treatment, environmental protection and basic science research. In order for the accelerator to be fully utilized as a national fundamental research facility beyond nuclear field, it is necessary to formulate a proceeding plan of the user program for the accelerator and to cultivate industrial utilization/application studies of proton beams accelerated by injector or RFQ of the accelerator. (author). 38 refs., 84 tabs., 39 figs

Workplace productivity, employment issues, and resource utilization in patients with bipolar I disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

McMorris, Barbara J; Downs, Kristen E; Panish, Jessica M; Dirani, Riad

2010-03-01

To collect workplace productivity and healthcare utilization data from subjects with bipolar I disorder and compare the results with those from normative subjects. A cross sectional survey was administered to patients and recruiting physicians. Data collected included employment status, Endicott Workplace Productivity Scale (EWPS) results, healthcare resource utilization, and quality-of-life. In comparison with normative subjects, bipolar I subjects reported lower levels of work productivity (measured by the EWPS). Bipolar I subjects also reported more frequent outpatient visits and more prescribed pharmaceuticals. Bipolar I subjects were more likely to miss work, have worked reduced hours due to medical or mental health issues, receive disability payments, been involved in a crime, be uninsured or covered by Medicare, or have been fired or laid off. The study groups were age- and gender-matched to reduce the impact of selection bias associated with a non-randomized study design. Other potential limitations affecting the results of the study include recall bias and possibly an impact of different data collection methods (e.g. Internet versus telephone). Bipolar I disorder is associated with a negative effect on work productivity and resource utilization and is an appropriate disease management target for employers and healthcare decision makers.

Expectations and disappointments of industrial innovations

CERN Document Server

Halevi, Gideon

2017-01-01

The Integrated Manufacturing System (IMS), Group Technology, Numerical Control, and Computer Aided Design (CAD) were four outstanding innovations that were one-time milestones of scientific industrial management. This book describes the expectations and disappointments of the common pitfalls of these ingenious ideas, which leads to understanding of their gradual disappearing, and proposes a way to restore these methods for long term utility and value. The first three innovations dominated the industry till the mid-1970s. Surprisingly, the reason for them being replaced is the same: research of the “routine” was misleading regardless of its ingenuity. In the fourth case, CAD does not support CAPP (Computer Aided Process Planning) and thus Numerical Control could no longer support developments of a system such as a flexible and automated factory. However, they incorporate many features in a specific resource instead within a manufacturing system. CAD technology and machining centers remain remarkable as a s...

Visually suboptimal bananas: How ripeness affects consumer expectation and perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Symmank, Claudia; Zahn, Susann; Rohm, Harald

2018-01-01

One reason for the significant amount of food that is wasted in developed countries is that consumers often expect visually suboptimal food as being less palatable. Using bananas as example, the objective of this study was to determine how appearance affects consumer overall liking, the rating of sensory attributes, purchase intention, and the intended use of bananas. The ripeness degree (RD) of the samples was adjusted to RD 5 (control) and RD 7 (more ripened, visually suboptimal). After preliminary experiments, a total of 233 participants were asked to judge their satisfaction with the intensity of sensory attributes that referred to flavor, taste, and texture using just-about-right scales. Subjects who received peeled samples were asked after tasting, whereas subjects who received unpeeled bananas judged expectation and, after peeling and tasting, perception. Expected overall liking and purchase intention were significantly lower for RD 7 bananas. Purchase intention was still significantly different between RD 5 and RD 7 after tasting, whereas no difference in overall liking was observed. Significant differences between RD 5 and RD 7 were observed when asking participants for their intended use of the bananas. Concerning the sensory attributes, penalty analysis revealed that only the firmness of the RD 7 bananas was still not just-about-right after tasting. The importance that consumers attribute to the shelf-life of food had a pronounced impact on purchase intention of bananas with different ripeness degree. In the case of suboptimal bananas, the results demonstrate a positive relationship between the sensory perception and overall liking and purchase intention. Convincing consumers that visually suboptimal food is still tasty is of high relevance for recommending different ways of communication. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wood fuels utilization in Central Europe - the wood fuels consumption and the targets of utilization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alakangas, E.

1999-01-01

Following subjects are discussed in this presentation: The share of bioenergy of the total energy consumption in EU region; the wood fuels consumption in EU region in 1995; the division of bioenergy utilization (households, wood- based district heating, wood consumption in industry, power generation from wood and residues, biofuels, biogas and sludges); wood fuels consumption in households in EU countries in 1995; wood consumption in France; the additional wood fuel consumption potential in France; Blan bois - wood energy program; French wood energy markets; German wood energy markets; energy consumption in Germany; wood consumption in Bavaria; the wood fuels potential in Bavaria; wood fuels consumption in households in Bavaria; wood fuels consumption for district heating in Bavaria; fuel prices in Bavaria; Environmental regulations in Germany; small boiler markets in Germany; Energy consumption in Austria; small-scale utilization of wood fuels; utilization of wood energy. (Slides, additional information from the author)

The relations among relatedness needs, subjective well-being, and depression of Korean elderly.

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, SuGyun; Jeon, JeeHye; Chong, YoungSook; An, JeongShin

2015-01-01

The first part of the study examined what the relatedness needs Korean elderly have in close relationships (spouse, children, friends) are. The most salient needs were "love and care" for spouse and "contact and often meeting" for children and friends. The second part of the study assessed the relations among the difference between expectation and satisfaction of relatedness needs, subjective well-being, and depression of Korean elderly. Regression analyses showed that the difference between expectation and satisfaction of relatedness needs for spouse and children significantly predicted subjective well-being and depression. Finally, gender differences are discussed in terms of the patriarchal culture of Korean society.

Human subject research for engineers a practical guide

CERN Document Server

de Winter, Joost C F

2017-01-01

This Brief introduces engineers to the main principles in ethics, research design, statistics, and publishing of human subject research. In recent years, engineering has become strongly connected to disciplines such as biology, medicine, and psychology. Often, engineers (and engineering students) are expected to perform human subject research. Typical human subject research topics conducted by engineers include human-computer interaction (e.g., evaluating the usability of software), exoskeletons, virtual reality, teleoperation, modelling of human behaviour and decision making (often within the framework of ‘big data’ research), product evaluation, biometrics, behavioural tracking (e.g., of work and travel patterns, or mobile phone use), transport and planning (e.g., an analysis of flows or safety issues), etc. Thus, it can be said that knowledge on how to do human subject research is indispensable for a substantial portion of engineers. Engineers are generally well trained in calculus and mechanics, but m...

Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

Utility function under decision theory: A construction arbitration application

Science.gov (United States)

Alozn, Ahmad E.; Galadari, Abdulla

2017-08-01

While a wide range of dispute resolution mechanisms exist, practitioners favor legally binding ones such as litigation and arbitration. Since initiating a litigation or arbitration case against a business partner may dissolve the business relationship between them, predicting the arbitrator's decision becomes valuable to the arbitrating parties. This paper proposes a construction-specific utility framework for the arbitrating party through decision theory, and based on expected utility theory. The proposed framework preserves the industry practicality and most importantly, considers direct short-term factors and indirect long-term factors as well. It is suggested that the arbitrating parties' utility functions could be then used to identify equilibrium points among them when interact via game theory principles, which would serve the purpose of predicting the arbitration outcome.

Assessment of emerging biomarkers of liver injury in human subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Schomaker, Shelli; Warner, Roscoe; Bock, Jeff; Johnson, Kent; Potter, David; Van Winkle, Joyce; Aubrecht, Jiri

2013-04-01

Hepatotoxicity remains a major challenge in drug development. Although alanine aminotransferase (ALT) remains the gold standard biomarker of liver injury, alternative biomarker strategies to better predict the potential for severe drug-induced liver injury (DILI) are essential. In this study, we evaluated the utility of glutamate dehydrogenase (GLDH), purine nucleoside phosphorylase (PNP), malate dehydrogenase (MDH), and paraxonase 1 (PON1) as indicators of liver injury in cohorts of human subjects, including healthy subjects across age and gender, subjects with a variety of liver impairments, and several cases of acetaminophen poisoning. In the healthy subjects, levels of GLDH and MDH were not affected by age or gender. Reference ranges for GLDH and MDH in healthy subjects were 1-10 and 79-176U/L, respectively. In contrast, the levels of PON1 and PNP were not consistent across cohorts of healthy subjects. Furthermore, GLDH and MDH had a strong correlation with elevated ALT levels and possessed a high predictive power for liver injury, as determined by ROC analysis. In contrast, PON1 and PNP did not detect liver injury in our study. Finally, evaluation of patients with acetaminophen-induced liver injury provided evidence that both GLDH and MDH might have utility as biomarkers of DILI in humans. This study is the first to evaluate GLDH, MDH, PON1, and PNP in a large number of human subjects and, and it provides an impetus for prospective clinical studies to fully evaluate the diagnostic value of GLDH and MDH for detection of liver injury.

Maternal health service utilization in urban slums of selected towns ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Maternal health service utilization in urban slums of selected towns in Ethiopia: Qualitative study. ... Reasons were found to be attributed to individual characteristics, perceived capacities of health facilities and friendliness of service providers and socio-cultural factors including socially sanctioned expectations at community ...

Hypochondriasis, somatization, and perceived health and utilization of health care services.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollifield, M; Paine, S; Tuttle, L; Kellner, R

1999-01-01

The authors determined the different effects of hypochondriasis and somatization on health perceptions, health status, and service utilization in a primary care population. The subjects with hypochondriacal responses (HR) on the Illness Attitudes Scales or high somatic concern (HSC) on the Symptom Questionnaire had a worse perception of health and variably used more health services than the control subjects, even though the HR and HSC subjects had the same level of chronic medical disorders. Regression analyses determined that somatization contributed more to negative health perception and service utilization than did hypochondriasis, although an interaction between the two contributed to the use of psychiatric care. The authors discuss the boundary between hypochondriasis and somatization for its implications for research and clinical practice.

Reduced Nicotine Content Expectancies Affect Initial Responses to Smoking.

Science.gov (United States)

Mercincavage, Melissa; Smyth, Joshua M; Strasser, Andrew A; Branstetter, Steven A

2016-10-01

We sought to determine if negative responses to reduced nicotine content (RNC) cigarettes during open-label trials result from smokers' (negative) expectancies. We examined the effects of nicotine content description - independent of actual nicotine content - on subjective responses (craving reduction, withdrawal suppression, mood changes, and sensory ratings) and smoking behaviors (topography measures and carbon monoxide [CO] boost). Thirty-six 12-hour-abstinent daily smokers completed a 3-session crossover trial. During each session, participants smoked their preferred brand cigarette - blinded and described as containing "usual," "low," and "very low" nicotine content - through a topography device and completed CO and subjective response assessments. Although nicotine content was identical, compared to the "usual" content cigarette, participants experienced less craving reduction after smoking the "very low" nicotine cigarette, and rated its smoke as weaker (p marketing and labeling are likely important considerations if a federal nicotine reduction policy is initiated.

Impact of bariatric surgery on life expectancy in severely obese patients with diabetes: A Decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Schauer, Daniel P.; Arterburn, David E.; Livingston, Edward H.; Coleman, Karen J.; Sidney, Steve; Fisher, David; O'Connor, Patrick; Fischer, David; Eckman, Mark H.

2014-01-01

Objective To create a decision analytic model to estimate the balance between treatment risks and benefits for severely obese patients with diabetes. Summary Background Data Bariatric surgery leads to many desirable metabolic changes, but long-term impact of bariatric surgery on life expectancy in patients with diabetes has not yet been quantified. Methods We developed a Markov state transition model with multiple Cox proportional hazards models and logistic regression models as inputs to compare bariatric surgery versus no surgical treatment for severely obese diabetic patients. The model is informed by data from three large cohorts: 1) 159,000 severely obese diabetic patients (4,185 had bariatric surgery) from 3 HMO Research Network sites, 2) 23,000 subjects from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), and 3) 18,000 subjects from the National Health Interview Survey linked to the National Death Index. Results In our main analyses, we found that a 45 year-old female with diabetes and a BMI of 45 kg/m2 gained an additional 6.7 years of life expectancy with bariatric surgery (38.4 years with surgery vs. 31.7 without). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the gain in life expectancy decreased with increasing BMI, until a BMI of 62 kg/m2 is reached, at which point nonsurgical treatment was associated with greater life expectancy. Similar results were seen for both men and women in all age groups. Conclusions For most severely obese patients with diabetes, bariatric surgery appears to improve life expectancy; however, surgery may reduce life expectancy for the super obese with BMIs over 62 kg/m2. PMID:25844968

Life expectancy in individuals with type 2 diabetes: implications for annuities.

Science.gov (United States)

Price, Hermione C; Clarke, Philip M; Gray, Alastair M; Holman, Rury R

2010-01-01

Insurance companies often offer people with diabetes ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' at preferential rates, in view of their reduced life expectancy. To assess the appropriateness of ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' rates for individuals with type 2 diabetes. Patients. There were 4026 subjects with established type 2 diabetes (but not known cardiovascular or other life-threatening diseases) enrolled into the UK Lipids in Diabetes Study. Measurements. Estimated individual life expectancy using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model. Subjects were a mean (SD) age of 60.7 (8.6) years, had a blood pressure of 141/83 (17/10) mm Hg, total cholesterol level of 4.5 (0.75) mmol/L, HDL cholesterol level of 1.2 (0.29) mmol/L, with median (interquartile range [IQR]) known diabetes duration of 6 (3-11) years, and HbA(1c) of 8.0% (7.2-9.0). Sixty-five percent were male, 91% white, 4% Afro-Caribbean, 5% Indian-Asian, and 15% current smokers. The UKPDS Outcomes Model median (IQR) estimated age at death was 76.6 (73.8-79.5) years compared with 81.6 (79.4-83.2) years, estimated using the UK Government Actuary's Department data for a general population of the same age and gender structure. The median (IQR) difference was 4.3 (2.8-6.1) years, a remaining life expectancy reduction of almost one quarter. The highest value annuity identified, which commences payments immediately for a 60-year-old man with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes investing 100,000, did not reflect this difference, offering 7.4K per year compared with 7.0K per year if not diabetic. The UK Government Actuary's Department data overestimate likely age at death in individuals with type 2 diabetes, and at present, ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' rates do not provide equity for people with type 2 diabetes. Using a diabetes-specific model to estimate life expectancy could provide valuable information to the annuity industry and permit more equitable annuity rates for those with type 2

Feasible sets, comparative risk aversion, and comparative uncertainty aversion in bargaining

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driesen, B.W.I.; Lombardi, M.; Peters, H.J.M.

2015-01-01

We study feasible sets of the bargaining problem under two different assumptions: the players are subjective expected utility maximizers or the players are Choquet expected utility maximizers. For the latter case, we consider the effects on bargaining solutions when players become more risk averse

Top-down versus bottom-up theories of subjective well-being

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Headey; R. Veenhoven (Ruut); A.J. Wearing

1991-01-01

textabstractThis paper addresses issues of causal direction in research on subjective well being (SWB). Previous researchers have generally assumed that such variables as domain satisfactions, social support, life events, and levels of expectation and aspiration are causes of SWB. Critics have

The plutonium utilization in thermal and fast reactor in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amanuma, T.; Uematsu, K.

1977-01-01

The nuclear power development in Japan is rather extensive one, and the installed nuclear power capacity is expected to reach 49,000 MWe by 1985 and possibly to reach 170,000 MWe by 2000 according to a prediction. Currently istalled nuclear power is mainly based on Light Water type Reactor, and this trend is expected to persist for the time-being. The plutonium produced by LWR will be accumulated to 20 tons by 1985 and to more than 200 tons by 2000. If the produced plutonium will simply be stored, it will raise the economic pressure to utilities and the management and physical protection problems associated with plutonium storing. Therefore, it is not too wise simply to store plutonium in a locked vault. In Japan, there are three ways of solving these problems which are currently worked out. There is no doubt that the best solution is to use plutonium in fast reactors. To reach this goal, an Experimental Fast Reactor ''JOYO''has been constructed and it is waiting for criticality in very near future. A prototype fast breeder reactor ''MONJU'', which is designed for about 300 MWe, is nearing to the last stage of the design work. The start of its construction will take place in a few yesars. The domonstration fast breeder reactor will come next to ''MONJU'' and the large scale commercial use of fast breeder reactor is expected to start around 1995. To anwer the near-term need for plutonium utilization, two technologies, which are equally important to Japan, are currently developed. One is the recycle use of plutonium into LWR. This technology has long been jointly developed by research organizations and utilities. Some of fuel irradiation data are already obtained and the physics study has also been extensive. The application of this technology is expected to start about 1987. The other is to burn plutonium in an Advanced Thermal Reactor (D 2 O moderated, Boiling Water Cooled) which shows better characteristics of using plutonium. The 160 MWe ''Fugen'' is a prototype

Calculation of expected rates of fisheries‐induced evolution in data‐poor situations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ken Haste

2010-01-01

A central part of an impact assessment of the evolutionary effects of fishing is a calculation of the expected rates of fishing induced by current fishing practice and an evaluation of how alternative fishing patterns may reduce evolutionary impacts of fishing. Here a general size-based framework...... for modeling the demography of fish based on size-based prescriptions of natural mortality, growth, and fishing is presented. Life history theory is used to reduce the necessary parameter set by utilizing relations between parameters making the framework particularly well suited for data-poor situations where...... only the size at maturation or the asymptotic size is known. The framework is applied to perform the modeling part of an evolutionary impact assessment using basic quantitative genetics to calculated expected rates of evolution on size at maturation, growth rate, and investment in gonads. A sensitivity...

Energy Data Base: Subject categories and scope: A reference manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grissom, M.C.

1987-04-01

The subject scope of the Energy Data Base (EDB) is defined, encompassing all technological aspects of energy production, conversion, and efficient utilization, and the economic, social, and political aspects as well. Coverage also includes the basic sciences as applicable. The subject areas within the scope of EDB are defined and hierarchically numbered, and scope notes are provided to define the extent of interest in certain areas, particularly areas of basic research

Domestic utility attitudes toward foreign uranium supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1981-06-01

The current embargo on the enrichment of foreign-origin uranium for use in domestic utilization facilities is scheduled to be removed in 1984. The pending removal of this embargo, complicated by a depressed worldwide market for uranium, has prompted consideration of a new or extended embargo within the US Government. As part of its on-going data collection activities, Nuclear Resources International (NRI) has surveyed 50 domestic utility/utility holding companies (representing 60 lead operator-utilities) on their foreign uranium purchase strategies and intentions. The most recent survey was conducted in early May 1981. A number of qualitative observations were made during the course of the survey. The major observations are: domestic utility views toward foreign uranium purchase are dynamic; all but three utilities had some considered foreign purchase strategy; some utilities have problems with buying foreign uranium from particular countries; an inducement is often required by some utilities to buy foreign uranium; opinions varied among utilities concerning the viability of the domestic uranium industry; and many utilities could have foreign uranium fed through their domestic uranium contracts (indirect purchases). The above observations are expanded in the final section of the report. However, it should be noted that two of the observations are particularly important and should be seriously considered in formulation of foreign uranium import restrictions. These important observations are the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the potentially large and imbalanced effect the indirect purchases could have on utility foreign uranium procurement

Home care technology through an ability expectation lens.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolbring, Gregor; Lashewicz, Bonnie

2014-06-20

Home care is on the rise, and its delivery is increasingly reliant on an expanding variety of health technologies ranging from computers to telephone "health apps" to social robots. These technologies are most often predicated on expectations that people in their homes (1) can actively interact with these technologies and (2) are willing to submit to the action of the technology in their home. Our purpose is to use an "ability expectations" lens to bring together, and provide some synthesis of, the types of utility and disadvantages that can arise for people with disabilities in relation to home care technology development and use. We searched the academic databases Scopus, Web of Science, EBSCO ALL, IEEE Xplore, and Compendex to collect articles that had the term "home care technology" in the abstract or as a topic (in the case of Web of Science). We also used our background knowledge and related academic literature pertaining to self-diagnosis, health monitoring, companionship, health information gathering, and care. We examined background articles and articles collected through our home care technology search in terms of ability expectations assumed in the presentation of home care technologies, or discussed in relation to home care technologies. While advances in health care support are made possible through emerging technologies, we urge critical examination of such technologies in terms of implications for the rights and dignity of people with diverse abilities. Specifically, we see potential for technologies to result in new forms of exclusion and powerlessness. Ableism influences choices made by funders, policy makers, and the public in the development and use of home health technologies and impacts how people with disabilities are served and how useful health support technologies will be for them. We urge continued critical examination of technology development and use according to ability expectations, and we recommend increasing incorporation of

Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the major digital currencies

OpenAIRE

Stavroyiannis, Stavros

2017-01-01

Digital currencies and cryptocurrencies have hesitantly started to penetrate the investors, and the next step will be the regulatory risk management framework. We examine the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall properties for the major digital currencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. The methodology used is GARCH modelling followed by Filtered Historical Simulation. We find that digital currencies are subject to a higher risk, therefore, to higher sufficient buffer and risk capit...

"Expectations to Change" ((E2C): A Participatory Method for Facilitating Stakeholder Engagement with Evaluation Findings

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Adrienne E.; Nnawulezi, Nkiru A.; Vandenberg, Lela

2015-01-01

From a utilization-focused evaluation perspective, the success of an evaluation is rooted in the extent to which the evaluation was used by stakeholders. This paper details the "Expectations to Change" (E2C) process, an interactive, workshop-based method designed to engage primary users with their evaluation findings as a means of…

Placebo versus "standard" hypnosis rationale: attitudes, expectancies, hypnotic responses, and experiences.

Science.gov (United States)

Accardi, Michelle; Cleere, Colleen; Lynn, Steven Jay; Kirsch, Irving

2013-10-01

In this study participants were provided with either the standard rationale that accompanies the Harvard Group Scale of Hypnotic Susceptibility: A (Shor & Orne, 1962) or a rationale that presented hypnosis as a nondeceptive placebo, consistent with Kirsch's (1994) sociocognitive perspective of hypnosis. The effects of the placebo and standard rationales were highly comparable with respect to hypnotic attitudes; prehypnotic expectancies; objective, subjective, and involuntariness measures of hypnotic responding; as well as a variety of subjective experiences during hypnosis, as measured by the Phenomenology of Consciousness Inventory (Pekala, 1982). Differences among correlations were not evident when measures were compared across groups. However, indices of hypnotic responding were correlated with attitudes in the hypnosis but not the placebo condition, and, generally speaking, the link between subjective experiences during hypnosis and measures of hypnotic responding were more reliable in the placebo than the hypnosis group. Researcher findings are neutral with respect to providing support for altered state versus sociocognitive models of hypnosis.

Utilization of geothermal energy in the USSR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kononov, V.I.; Dvorov, I.M.

1990-01-01

This paper reports that at present geothermal energy is utilized in the USSR mostly for district heating, and for industrial and agricultural purposes. The populations of 7 towns have district heating that is supplied by thermal waters. The population supplied totals about 125,000 people. The total area of greenhouses is 850,000 m 2 . Electric energy generated at geothermal power stations still remains negligible with the installed capacity of the single Pauzhetka station (Kamchatka) being 11 MW. another station at Mutnovka is currently under construction and is expected to be producing 50 MW by 1992 and 200 MW by 1998. The proven geothermal resources in the USSR provide hope for a significant increase in the utilization of the earth's deep heat in the near future

Employment status and subjective well-being: The role of the social norm to work

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stam, K.; Sieben, I.J.P.; Verbakel, C.M.C.; Graaf, P.M. de

2016-01-01

This article examines to what extent a social norm to work moderates the relationship between employment status and subjective well-being. It was expected that the detrimental impact of non-employment on subjective well-being would be larger in countries with a stronger social norm. Using a direct

Employment status and subjective well-being : The role of the social norm to work

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stam, K.; Sieben, I.J.P.; Verbakel, C.M.C.; de Graaf, P.M.

2016-01-01

This article examines to what extent a social norm to work moderates the relationship between employment status and subjective well-being. It was expected that the detrimental impact of non-employment on subjective well-being would be larger in countries with a stronger social norm. Using a direct

Effect of Pediatric Behavioral Health Screening and Colocated Services on Ambulatory and Inpatient Utilization.

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, Karen A; Penfold, Robert B; Arsenault, Lisa N; Zhang, Fang; Soumerai, Stephen B; Wissow, Lawrence S

2015-11-01

The study sought to determine the impact of a pediatric behavioral health screening and colocation model on utilization of behavioral health care. In 2003, Cambridge Health Alliance, a Massachusetts public health system, introduced behavioral health screening and colocation of social workers sequentially within its pediatric practices. An interrupted time-series study was conducted to determine the impact on behavioral health care utilization in the 30 months after model implementation compared with the 18 months prior. Specifically, the change in trends of ambulatory, emergency, and inpatient behavioral health utilization was examined. Utilization data for 11,223 children ages ≥4 years 9 months to <18 years 3 months seen from 2003 to 2008 contributed to the study. In the 30 months after implementation of pediatric behavioral health screening and colocation, there was a 20.4% cumulative increase in specialty behavioral health visit rates (trend of .013% per month, p=.049) and a 67.7% cumulative increase in behavioral health primary care visit rates (trend of .019% per month, p<.001) compared with the expected rates predicted by the 18-month preintervention trend. In addition, behavioral health emergency department visit rates increased 245% compared with the expected rate (trend .01% per month, p=.002). After the implementation of a behavioral health screening and colocation model, more children received behavioral health treatment. Contrary to expectations, behavioral health emergency department visits also increased. Further study is needed to determine whether this is an effect of how care was organized for children newly engaged in behavioral health care or a reflection of secular trends in behavioral health utilization or both.

Formerly utilized sites: remedial action, a bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McLaren, L.H.

1982-11-01

This bibliography contains information on formerly utilized sites included in the Department of Energy's Data Base from January 1981 through October 1982. The abstracts are grouped by subject category. Within each category the arrangement is by report number for reports, followed by nonreports in reverse chronological order. These citations are to research reports, journal articles, books, patents, theses, and conference papers from worldwide sources. Five indexes, each preceded by a brief description, are provided: corporate author, personal author, subject, contract number, and report number. (115 abstracts)

Utilizing of marketing research for marketing communication

OpenAIRE

Bielová, Zuzana

2008-01-01

The subject of bachelor's thesis "Utilizing of marketing research for marketing communication" is analyze problematic of marketing communications in sector of educational services. The aims are potential clients of education. I will try to make out import of marketing research for marketing communication of the company.

Ensaio sobre o agente racional: esparadrapos para um paciente terminal?

OpenAIRE

Moura, David Miranda de

2007-01-01

The Rational Agent model have been a foundational basis for theoretical models such as Economics, Management Science, Artificial Intelligence and Game Theory, mainly by the ¿maximization under constraints¿ principle, e.g. the ¿Expected Utility Models¿, among them, the Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) Theory, from Savage, placed as most influence player over theoretical models we¿ve seen nowadays, even though many other developments have been done, indeed also in non-expected utility theories...

Information Integration in Risky Choice: Identification and Stability

OpenAIRE

Stewart, Neil

2011-01-01

How is information integrated across the\\ud attributes of an option when making risky\\ud choices? In most descriptive models of\\ud decision under risk, information about\\ud risk, and reward is combined multiplicatively\\ud (e.g., expected value; expected utility\\ud theory, Bernouli, 1738/1954; subjective\\ud expected utility theory, Savage, 1954;\\ud Edwards, 1955; prospect theory, Kahneman\\ud and Tversky, 1979; rank-dependent utility,\\ud Quiggin, 1993; decision field theory,\\ud Busemeyer and To...

The future of the electric utility industry in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Threlkeld, R.

1995-01-01

A discussion of future changes in the electric power utility industry in Canada was presented. The impacts of deregulation were considered, including increased competition, and reduced profits resulting from it. Restructuring measures taken by BC Hydro to prepare for industry changes were described. Competition was not only expected to result from new electric utilities, but also gas utilities that are establishing themselves in the home heating business. Emphasis was placed on making the utilities' priorities, the same as their customers'. Flexibility of rate scheduling and increased dependence on customer-owned generation were needed to remain competitive. Exportation of surplus electricity and development of power utilities in developing nations was considered as a potentially lucrative development strategy. It was suggested that making use of strategic alliances within Canada and worldwide, will help to keep utilities ahead of the competition. A warning was issued to the effect that environmental concerns must always be considered well in advance of regulations since they are continually becoming more stringent. Making common cause with customers, and continuous improvement were considered to be the most important keys to future success for the industry

Future Expectations of High School Students In Southeastern Turkey: Factors behind Future Expectations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hüseyin Şimşek

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This study was conducted to identify various future expectations of high school students in southeastern Turkey and factors behind their expectations. The sample of the study, which had a descriptive and associational survey design consisted of 1106 students randomly selected from 54 different high schools located in nine cities in southeastern Turkey. Data were collected through the “Future Expectation Scale (FES” developed by the researcher. Results indicated that personal and professional future, educational future, economic future and social future expectations of high school students in southeastern Turkey were generally above the average level. According to the study, being a teacher and a doctor took the first place among several professions to be further preferred by high school students. It was also concluded that future expectations of high school students did not differ on gender, high school type, CGPA, level of mother education, father’s occupation, family income level, the number of siblings, receiving pre-school education, and language spoken at home. On the other hand, future expectations of high school students were found to differ on the city where students being taught, grade level, corporal punishment, and tendency toward being a dropout.

Considerable hazards to be expected by nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, H.

1980-01-01

The author examines the military aspects of Pu production. As reactor-Pu is applicable for nuclear weapons the civil utilization of nuclear power provides plutonium concentrations apt for military use for the goverments when closing the fuel cycle by commercial fuel reprocessing. Whether the last threshold shall be trespassed shall depend on how the political intentions of the authorities cooperate with the developments in the international area. After having illustrated the effects on the most important formations of the conflict the author concludes that a radical - utopian - solution alone can grant safety: If the whole fuel cycle is internationalized and controlled by an international authority supported by power of police. In fact, it must be expected that diplomatic and institutional solutions shall have a slower development than political risks. (HSCH) [de

Great Expectations: How Role Expectations and Role Experiences Relate to Perceptions of Group Cohesion.

Science.gov (United States)

Benson, Alex J; Eys, Mark A; Irving, P Gregory

2016-04-01

Many athletes experience a discrepancy between the roles they expect to fulfill and the roles they eventually occupy. Drawing from met expectations theory, we applied response surface methodology to examine how role expectations, in relation to role experiences, influence perceptions of group cohesion among Canadian Interuniversity Sport athletes (N = 153). On the basis of data from two time points, as athletes approached and exceeded their role contribution expectations, they reported higher perceptions of task cohesion. Furthermore, as athletes approached and exceeded their social involvement expectations, they reported higher perceptions of social cohesion. These response surface patterns-pertaining to task and social cohesion-were driven by the positive influence of role experiences. On the basis of the interplay between athletes' role experiences and their perception of the group environment, efforts to improve team dynamics may benefit from focusing on improving the quality of role experiences, in conjunction with developing realistic role expectations.

Managing Media: Segmenting Media Through Consumer Expectancies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matt Eastin

2014-04-01

Full Text Available It has long been understood that consumers are motivated to media differently. However, given the lack of comparative model analysis, this assumption is without empirical validation, and thus, the orientation of segmentation from a media management perspective is without motivational grounds. Thus, evolving the literature on media consumption, the current study develops and compares models of media segmentation within the context of use. From this study, six models of media expectancies were constructed so that motivational differences between media (i.e., local and national newspapers, network and cable television, radio, and Internet could be observed. Utilizing higher order statistical analyses the data indicates differences across a model comparison approach for media motivations. Furthermore, these differences vary across numerous demographic factors. Results afford theoretical advancement within the literature of consumer media consumption as well as provide media planners’ insight into consumer choices.

Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

2017-12-01

We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Report of joint utilization results in fiscal year 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

Joint utilization seems to aim at the effective use of limited funds by concentrating facilities. There is a demerit that for doing experiment, it is necessary to take a trouble of going to the place. However by utilizing jointly one facility, there is the possibility of the occurrence of sympathizing phenomena directly connected to new ideas among researchers, and it is just the state joint utilization should be in. In fiscal year 1994, the Yayoi and the linac were put to joint utilization as expected, and many results of researches were obtained by the users. In this book, in addition to the report of the results of joint utilization, the report of the Yayoi research meetings held in fiscal year 1994 is included. Eight lectures on fast neutron science, the reports of joint utilization results of 15 Yayoi on-pile studies, 9 Yayoi off-pile studies and 16 linac studies, and the reports of 11 Yayoi research meetings are included in this book. The list of the events held in the Nuclear Engineering Research Laboratory, University of Tokyo, in fiscal year 1994, the list of the names of various committee members, and the list of the names of the persons in charge of joint utilization experiments are attached. (K.I.)

Social Security Measures for Elderly Population in Delhi, India: Awareness, Utilization and Barriers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kohli, Charu; Gupta, Kalika; Banerjee, Bratati; Ingle, Gopal Krishna

2017-05-01

World population of elderly is increasing at a fast pace. The number of elderly in India has increased by 54.77% in the last 15 years. A number of social security measures have been taken by Indian government. To assess awareness, utilization and barriers faced while utilizing social security schemes by elderly in a secondary care hospital situated in a rural area in Delhi, India. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 360 individuals aged 60 years and above in a secondary care hospital situated in a rural area in Delhi. A pre-tested, semi-structured schedule prepared in local language was used. Data was analysed using SPSS software (version 17.0). Chi-square test was used to observe any statistical association between categorical variables. The results were considered statistically significant if p-value was less than 0.05. A majority of study subjects were females (54.2%), Hindu (89.7%), married (60.3%) and were not engaged in any occupation (82.8%). Awareness about Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme (IGNOAPS) was present among 286 (79.4%) and Annapurna scheme in 193 (53.6%) subjects. Among 223 subjects who were below poverty line, 179 (80.3%) were aware of IGNOAPS; while, 112 (50.2%) were utilizing the scheme. There was no association of awareness with education status, occupation, religion, family type, marital status and caste (p>0.05). Corruption and tedious administrative formalities were major barriers reported. Awareness generation, provision of information on how to approach the concerned authority for utilizing the scheme and ease of administrative procedures should be an integral part of any social security scheme or measure. In the present study, about 79.4% of elderly were aware and 45% of the eligible subjects were utilizing pension scheme. Major barriers reported in utilization of schemes were corruption and tedious administrative procedures.

Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, S.H.

1983-01-01

Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

Trade-off decisions in distribution utility management

Science.gov (United States)

Slavickas, Rimas Anthony

As a result of the "unbundling" of traditional monopolistic electricity generation and transmission enterprises into a free-market economy, power distribution utilities are faced with very difficult decisions pertaining to electricity supply options and quality of service to the customers. The management of distribution utilities has become increasingly complex, versatile, and dynamic to the extent that conventional, non-automated management tools are almost useless and obsolete. This thesis presents a novel and unified approach to managing electricity supply options and quality of service to customers. The technique formulates the problem in terms of variables, parameters, and constraints. An advanced Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) optimization formulation is developed together with novel, logical, decision-making algorithms. These tools enable the utility management to optimize various cost components and assess their time-trend impacts, taking into account the intangible issues such as customer perception, customer expectation, social pressures, and public response to service deterioration. The above concepts are further generalized and a Logical Proportion Analysis (LPA) methodology and associated software have been developed. Solutions using numbers are replaced with solutions using words (character strings) which more closely emulate the human decision-making process and advance the art of decision-making in the power utility environment. Using practical distribution utility operation data and customer surveys, the developments outlined in this thesis are successfully applied to several important utility management problems. These involve the evaluation of alternative electricity supply options, the impact of rate structures on utility business, and the decision of whether to continue to purchase from a main grid or generate locally (partially or totally) by building Non-Utility Generation (NUG).

Patient (customer) expectations in hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Bostan, Sedat; Acuner, Taner; Yilmaz, Gökhan

2007-06-01

The expectations of patient are one of the determining factors of healthcare service. The purpose of this study is to measure the Patients' Expectations, based on Patient's Rights. This study was done with Likert-Survey in Trabzon population. The analyses showed that the level of the expectations of the patient was high on the factor of receiving information and at an acceptable level on the other factors. Statistical meaningfulness was determined between age, sex, education, health insurance, and the income of the family and the expectations of the patients (pstudy, the current legal regulations have higher standards than the expectations of the patients. The reason that the satisfaction of the patients high level is interpreted due to the fact that the level of the expectation is low. It is suggested that the educational and public awareness studies on the patients' rights must be done in order to increase the expectations of the patients.

Can Human Subject Pool Participation Benefit Sociology Students?

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, Lynn Gencianeo; Gibbs Stayte, Patricia

2015-01-01

Instructors at non-research institutions are less able to expose their students to research firsthand. Utilizing human subject pools (HSPs) in class may be a solution. Given that HSPs tend to be used in introduction to psychology classes at research institutions, we examine a community college HSP to answer three questions: (1) Do community…

Testing rank-dependent utility theory for health outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Adam

2003-10-01

Systematic violations of expected utility theory (EU) have been reported in the context of both money and health outcomes. Rank-dependent utility theory (RDU) is currently the most popular and influential alternative theory of choice under circumstances of risk. This paper reports a test of the descriptive performance of RDU compared to EU in the context of health. When one of the options is certain, violations of EU that can be explained by RDU are found. When both options are risky, no evidence that RDU is a descriptive improvement over EU is found, though this finding may be due to the low power of the tests. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relative Standing and Subjective Well-Being in South Africa: The Role of Perceptions, Expectations and Income Mobility

Science.gov (United States)

Posel, Dorrit Ruth; Casale, Daniela Maria

2011-01-01

Most studies that explore the impact of relative standing on subjective well-being use objective measures of the individual's relative position, such as the mean income of the reference group or the individual's ranking in the relevant income distribution. In this paper, using a new household survey from South Africa, we are able to derive…

Research and development of radiation utilization in 1986 at JAERI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-01-01

In the peaceful utilization of atomic energy, in addition to the method of utilizing the energy obtained by nuclear fission and nuclear fusion as electric power or heat source, there is the field of utilizing radiation, in which the effect that radiation exerts on substances and the properties of radiation are used for measurement, analysis and others. The fields of utilizing radiation are diverse such as medicine, technology and agriculture, and those directly related to the health and daily life of people are many. Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute has positively advanced the research and development on radiation utilization, which are related to the utilization of irradiation and the production and use of radioisotopes. The former is carried out in Takasaki Radiation Chemistry Research Establishment, and the latter in the Isotope Division, Tokai Research Establishment. Also, the research and development on the radiation-withstanding properties of organic materials and the production techniques for tritium are advanced, and it is expected to begin the highly advanced scientific and technological research using ion beam. The research and development of polymer materials, the techniques of using irradiation, the production and utilization of radioisotopes and others are reported. (Kako, I.)

FAIR VALUE: UTILITY AND LIMITS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentin Gabriel Cristea

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the utility and the limits of the fair value. We believe that any new product must be tried and tested before being imposed on the market and must be accepted by all potential users and those who will be affected, directly or indirectly and its advantages, disadvantages, risks, its cost must be predetermined and analyzed in a comprehensive and objective.We ask: Do financial statements at fair value meet users' expectations? The requirement to use fair value pricing model that was carrying was not accompanied by a parallel examination of its impact on the presentation of accounts.

Sex and life expectancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Seifarth, Joshua E; McGowan, Cheri L; Milne, Kevin J

2012-12-01

A sexual dimorphism in human life expectancy has existed in almost every country for as long as records have been kept. Although human life expectancy has increased each year, females still live longer, on average, than males. Undoubtedly, the reasons for the sex gap in life expectancy are multifaceted, and it has been discussed from both sociological and biological perspectives. However, even if biological factors make up only a small percentage of the determinants of the sex difference in this phenomenon, parity in average life expectancy should not be anticipated. The aim of this review is to highlight biological mechanisms that may underlie the sexual dimorphism in life expectancy. Using PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar, as well as cited and citing reference histories of articles through August 2012, English-language articles were identified, read, and synthesized into categories that could account for biological sex differences in human life expectancy. The examination of biological mechanisms accounting for the female-based advantage in human life expectancy has been an active area of inquiry; however, it is still difficult to prove the relative importance of any 1 factor. Nonetheless, biological differences between the sexes do exist and include differences in genetic and physiological factors such as progressive skewing of X chromosome inactivation, telomere attrition, mitochondrial inheritance, hormonal and cellular responses to stress, immune function, and metabolic substrate handling among others. These factors may account for at least a part of the female advantage in human life expectancy. Despite noted gaps in sex equality, higher body fat percentages and lower physical activity levels globally at all ages, a sex-based gap in life expectancy exists in nearly every country for which data exist. There are several biological mechanisms that may contribute to explaining why females live longer than men on average, but the complexity of the

Shareveillance: Subjectivity between open and closed data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clare Birchall

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This article attempts to question modes of sharing and watching to rethink political subjectivity beyond that which is enabled and enforced by the current data regime. It identifies and examines a ‘shareveillant’ subjectivity: a form configured by the sharing and watching that subjects have to withstand and enact in the contemporary data assemblage. Looking at government open and closed data as case studies, this article demonstrates how ‘shareveillance’ produces an anti-political role for the public. In describing shareveillance as, after Jacques Rancière, a distribution of the (digital sensible, this article posits a politico-ethical injunction to cut into the share and flow of data in order to arrange a more enabling assemblage of data and its affects. In order to interrupt shareveillance, this article borrows a concept from Édouard Glissant and his concern with raced otherness to imagine what a ‘right to opacity’ might mean in the digital context. To assert this right is not to endorse the individual subject in her sovereignty and solitude, but rather to imagine a collective political subjectivity and relationality according to the important question of what it means to ‘share well’ beyond the veillant expectations of the state.

System and method for acquisition management of subject position information

Science.gov (United States)

Carrender, Curt

2005-12-13

A system and method for acquisition management of subject position information that utilizes radio frequency identification (RF ID) to store position information in position tags. Tag programmers receive position information from external positioning systems, such as the Global Positioning System (GPS), from manual inputs, such as keypads, or other tag programmers. The tag programmers program each position tag with the received position information. Both the tag programmers and the position tags can be portable or fixed. Implementations include portable tag programmers and fixed position tags for subject position guidance, and portable tag programmers for collection sample labeling. Other implementations include fixed tag programmers and portable position tags for subject route recordation. Position tags can contain other associated information such as destination address of an affixed subject for subject routing.

System and method for acquisition management of subject position information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carrender, Curt [Morgan Hill, CA

2007-01-23

A system and method for acquisition management of subject position information that utilizes radio frequency identification (RF ID) to store position information in position tags. Tag programmers receive position information from external positioning systems, such as the Global Positioning System (GPS), from manual inputs, such as keypads, or other tag programmers. The tag programmers program each position tag with the received position information. Both the tag programmers and the position tags can be portable or fixed. Implementations include portable tag programmers and fixed position tags for subject position guidance, and portable tag programmers for collection sample labeling. Other implementations include fixed tag programmers and portable position tags for subject route recordation. Position tags can contain other associated information such as destination address of an affixed subject for subject routing.

An Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for Amplitude Estimation of Saturated Optical Transient Signals.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kagie, Matthew J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lanterman, Aaron D. [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2017-12-01

This paper addresses parameter estimation for an optical transient signal when the received data has been right-censored. We develop an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the amplitude of a Poisson intensity with a known shape in the presence of additive background counts, where the measurements are subject to saturation effects. We compare the results of our algorithm with those of an EM algorithm that is unaware of the censoring.

Subjective discount rates in the general population and their predictive power for energy saving behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruderer Enzler, Heidi; Diekmann, Andreas; Meyer, Reto

2014-01-01

Why do people sometimes refrain from saving energy even if it would pay off in monetary terms? Subjective discount rates present one possible explanation for this lack of foresight, but little is known about their level and reliability in the general population. With regard to behavior, persons with lower discount rates are expected to accept additional costs upfront more readily than those with higher discount rates. Based on a representative nation-wide study, the Swiss Environmental Survey 2007, and a follow-up survey, our analyses reveal that on average subjective discount rates are well above market interest rates and moderately stable over a time interval of four years. Income and education are negatively correlated with discount rates. Contrary to expectations, we did not find convincing support for an impact of discount rates on energy saving behavior. - Highlights: • Results of a large panel study in Switzerland. • Mean subjective discount rates in population are well above market interest rates. • Subjective discount rates are moderately stable over four years. • Theory suggests impact of subjective discount rates on energy saving behavior. • However, subjective discount rates do not contribute to explanation of energy saving behavior

Monitoring treatment expectations in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator using the EXPECT-ICD scale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Habibovic, Mirela; Pedersen, Susanne S.; van den Broek, Krista C

2014-01-01

AIMS: Patient treatment expectations may affect cardiac outcomes; however, till date, no validated instruments have been developed to monitor treatment expectations in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). This study evaluates the predictive value of the newly developed 10...... with a two-factor model involving both negative (α = 0.84) and positive expectations (α = 0.77) with a score range of 0-20 for each factor. Negative treatment expectations were associated with higher levels of anxiety (β = 0.443; P ...-item EXPECtations Towards ICD therapy (EXPECT-ICD) in relation to anxiety, depression, and ICD related concerns 3 months post-implant.METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive implanted ICD patients were included as part of the WEB-based distress management programme for ICD patients (WEBCARE) trial from six...

Anomalous vacuum expectation values

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, H.

1986-01-01

The anomalous vacuum expectation value is defined as the expectation value of a quantity that vanishes by means of the field equations. Although this value is expected to vanish in quantum systems, regularization in general produces a finite value of this quantity. Calculation of this anomalous vacuum expectation value can be carried out in the general framework of field theory. The result is derived by subtraction of divergences and by zeta-function regularization. Various anomalies are included in these anomalous vacuum expectation values. This method is useful for deriving not only the conformal, chiral, and gravitational anomalies but also the supercurrent anomaly. The supercurrent anomaly is obtained in the case of N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory in four, six, and ten dimensions. The original form of the energy-momentum tensor and the supercurrent have anomalies in their conservation laws. But the modification of these quantities to be equivalent to the original one on-shell causes no anomaly in their conservation laws and gives rise to anomalous traces

Subjective burden on spouses of schizophrenia patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Surekha Kumari

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Background : There is limited information from India on subjective burden on spouses of schizophrenia patients. The aim of the present study was to assess and compare patterns of subjective burden on spouses of schizophrenia patients. Materials and Methods: The present study was conducted at the OPD level, and follow-up was done at the Ranchi Institute of Neuropsychiatry and Sciences (RINPAS during the period May 2008 to November 2008. Tools utilized were sociodemographic data sheet, Family Burden Interview Schedule developed by Pai and R. L. Kapur (1981. The sample comprised of 50 samples of spouses (25 male and 25 female spouses of schizophrenia patients. Results: The findings suggest that both the groups, viz., male and female spouses of schizophrenia patients, showed moderate level of subjective burden, i.e., 13 (52% and 15 (60% male and female spouses, respectively, which was statistically found to be insignificant. Conclusion : No significant difference was found between male and female spouses of schizophrenia patients with regard to the level of subjective burden.

Enhancement of research reactor utilization in the developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashir, J.; Butt, N.M.

1994-06-01

As the research reactor represents a significant capital investment on the part of any institution and in addition there are recurring annual operating costs, therefore, the subject of its effective utilization has always been of interest. World wide there are about three hundred research reactors. Of these, 92 are located in the developing countries. Together, these reactors represent quite significant research potential. In the present paper, reasons of under utilization, procedures necessary to measure the productivity, ways and means of enhancing the utilization of research reactors are described. In the end, use of two research reactors at PINSTECH are described to illustrate some of the ways in which a successful utilization of a research reactor can made in the developing country. (author) 9 figs

Public utility service in energy field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abenante, R.

2000-01-01

Under the current legislation, the idea of public utility service is thoroughly expressed and settled within that of public service. Lacking a new definition, not all businesses in the electricity and gas industries are subjected to the authoritative and regulatory opinions of the Authority established by act 481/95 which can only be expressed in matters strictly concerning public services [it

Does prospect theory warrant a paradigm shift in the economics of risk?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

PL Mohapi

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This paper assesses whether a paradigm shift should be made from expected utility framework to prospect theory framework – in the economics of choice under risk. A brief overview of the subject is outlined, starting with expected utility theory and noting its descriptive limitations. Proposed theories to make up for these limitations is also provided. Prospect theory emerged as the most serious challenger to expected utility theory. A review of some descriptive predictions of prospect theory, suggests that there is no scientific reason why expected utility should not be ousted from dominance by prospect theory. The shift to prospect theory however is not without costs. Conceptual complexities and non-universality of application associated with prospect theory should be embraced with the shift while not entirely abandoning expected utility theory.

Response Expectancy and the Placebo Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirsch, Irving

2018-01-01

In this chapter, I review basic tenets of response expectancy theory (Kirsch, 1985), beginning with the important distinction between response expectancies and stimulus expectancies. Although both can affect experience, the effects of response expectancies are stronger and more resistant to extinction than those of stimulus expectancies. Further, response expectancies are especially important to understanding placebo effects. The response expectancy framework is consistent with and has been amplified by the Bayesian model of predictive coding. Clinical implications of these phenomena are exemplified. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Program Evaluation in Cost Benefit Terms.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanner, C. Kenneth

This paper advances a model, called the expected opportunity loss model, for curriculum evaluation. This decision-making technique utilizes subjective data by ranking courses according to their expected contributions to the primary objective of the total program. The model also utilizes objective data in the form of component costs, and differs…

A Rational Decision Maker with Ordinal Utility under Uncertainty: Optimism and Pessimism

OpenAIRE

Han, Ji

2009-01-01

In game theory and artificial intelligence, decision making models often involve maximizing expected utility, which does not respect ordinal invariance. In this paper, the author discusses the possibility of preserving ordinal invariance and still making a rational decision under uncertainty.

Swedish medical students' expectations of their future life

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, Jenny; Johansson, Eva E.; Verdonk, Petra; Lagro-Janssen, Antoine; Hamberg, Katarina

2011-01-01

Objectives: To investigate future life expectations among male and female medical students in their first and final year. Methods The study was cross-sectional and conducted at a Swedish medical school. Out of 600 invited students, 507 (85%) answered an open-ended question about their future life, 298 (59%) first-year students and 209 (41%) last-year students. Women constituted 60% of the respondents. A mixed model design was applied; qualitative content analysis was utilized to create statistically comparable themes and categories. Results Students’ written answers were coded, categorized and clustered into four themes: “Work”, “Family”, “Leisure” and “Quality of personal life”. Almost all students included aspects of work in their answers. Female students were more detailed than male ones in their family concerns. Almost a third of all students reflected on a future work-life balance, but considerations regarding quality of personal life and leisure were more common among last-year students. Conclusions Today’s medical students expect more of life than work, especially those standing on the doorstep of working life. They intend to balance work not only with a family but also with leisure activities. Our results reflect work attitudes that challenge the health care system for more adaptive working conditions. We suggest that discussions about work-life balance should be included in medical curricula.

Discussing Landscape Compositional Scenarios Generated with Maximization of Non-Expected Utility Decision Models Based on Weighted Entropies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Pinto Casquilho

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The search for hypothetical optimal solutions of landscape composition is a major issue in landscape planning and it can be outlined in a two-dimensional decision space involving economic value and landscape diversity, the latter being considered as a potential safeguard to the provision of services and externalities not accounted in the economic value. In this paper, we use decision models with different utility valuations combined with weighted entropies respectively incorporating rarity factors associated to Gini-Simpson and Shannon measures. A small example of this framework is provided and discussed for landscape compositional scenarios in the region of Nisa, Portugal. The optimal solutions relative to the different cases considered are assessed in the two-dimensional decision space using a benchmark indicator. The results indicate that the likely best combination is achieved by the solution using Shannon weighted entropy and a square root utility function, corresponding to a risk-averse behavior associated to the precautionary principle linked to safeguarding landscape diversity, anchoring for ecosystem services provision and other externalities. Further developments are suggested, mainly those relative to the hypothesis that the decision models here outlined could be used to revisit the stability-complexity debate in the field of ecological studies.

Prospect of radioisotopes and radiation utilization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tabata, Yoneho

1994-01-01

Radiation Utilization in Japan has been positioned, together with nuclear power generation, as one of the important cornerstones, and research and development and practical usage of it has been proceeded with steadily in the fields of industry, agriculture, medicine, and so on. In the field of medicine, SPECT and PET facilities, radio-immunoassay, radiotherapy has come widely to practical use. In the field of agriculture and fisheries, improvement of breed, sterile insect technique have been implemented, and eradication of melon fly has been achieved. In the field of industry, it is expected that the practical use of neutron radiography technique and research and development of synthesizing high performance, high function materials are progressed. In the environment preservation area, a pilot test using electron beam to treat the exhaust gases out of coal fired power plants, city garbages combustion facilities, city high way tunnels in order to establish de- sulphur/de-nitrogen technique is carried out. As the international contribution in the field of radiation utilization, the cooperation with developing countries and the cooperation among advanced countries are reported. In this paper, a prospect of radioisotopes and radiation utilization is described. (J.P.N.)

Chronically ill patients’ expectations of therapeutic education and their health locus of control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Małgorzata Anna Basińska

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Background Beliefs as cognitive components of personality indicate what we consider as true or false and help us to answer questions concerning others, the world surrounding us and situations that we encounter. Beliefs about the health locus of control and their relations with expectations pertaining to therapeutic education seem to be of vital importance in the case of occurrence of a chronic illness. The aim of this paper is to verify whether expectations concerning therapeutic education in chronically ill patients demonstrate a relation with beliefs about the health locus of control and whether they vary according to gender, age and health, and to present the results of research that applies the Polish OE-15 scale for the evaluation of therapeutic education expectations depending on the health condition. Participants and procedure Two hundred and ninety-one persons were examined, including 180 patients and 111 healthy controls (the control group, 187 women and 104 men. The average age of subjects was 45.71 (SD = 13.51 years, ranging from 21 to 80 years. The OE-15 Therapeutic Education Expectations Scale and the Multidimensional Health Locus of Control Scale in versions relevant for patients and healthy controls as well as demographics were used. Results Age, gender and beliefs about the health locus of control are related to expectations of therapeutic education. Conclusions When providing therapeutic education for chronically ill patients, one should assess their expectations and pay attention to patients’ beliefs about the health locus of control.

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Network bandwidth utilization forecast model on high bandwidth networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Wuchert (William) [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sim, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2015-03-30

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2%. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Analysis of Service Quality Gap between Perceptions and Expectations of Service Recipients using SERVQUAL Approach in Selected Hospitals in Golestan Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Hoseini Rostami

2018-03-01

Conclusions: The largest gap between perceptions and expectances was about reliability and tangibles dimensions that can likely be reduced by the staff appearance, physical environment, and utilization of suitable equipment and assurance to patients.

Fiscal 1996 survey report on the environmentally friendly type coal utilization system feasibility study. Feasibility study of the environmentally friendly type coal utilization system in Thailand; Kankyo chowagata sekitan riyo system kanosei chosa. Tai ni okeru kankyo chowagata sekitan riyo system kanosei chosa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-03-01

The paper investigated and studied the present situation and future trend of coal utilization and distribution in Thailand, and the present situation of environmental effects and the measures taken for environmental protection. Around 2010, coal will probably be produced only at EGAT`s Mae Moh (MM) coal mine. Demand for overseas coal is expected to be 40-50 million tons in 2011, and preparation of the coal center becomes a subject. For general industry use coal, pretreatment such as coal preparation, coal blending and briquetting is needed, considering coal quality, usage, transport distance and environmental effects. Brown coal of MM coal mine is a lignite with high sulfur, high ash content and low heating value. Wide spread of its use can be expected if upgrading is possible such as desulfurization, deashing, increasing heating value. In the electric power generation field, the absorber was installed at the existing boiler of the mine-mouth generating plant to conduct a verification test on high grade desulfurization of ultra-high sulfur lignite. In the industry field, the circulating fluidized bed boiler was adopted. In the residential/commercial field, introduction of briquette was proposed. 80 refs., 84 tabs.

Framing and Claiming: How Information-Framing Affects Expected Social Security Claiming Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Jeffrey R; Kapteyn, Arie; Mitchell, Olivia S

2016-03-01

This paper provides evidence that Social Security benefit claiming decisions are strongly affected by framing and are thus inconsistent with expected utility theory. Using a randomized experiment that controls for both observable and unobservable differences across individuals, we find that the use of a "breakeven analysis" encourages early claiming. Respondents are more likely to delay when later claiming is framed as a gain, and the claiming age is anchored at older ages. Additionally, the financially less literate, individuals with credit card debt, and those with lower earnings are more influenced by framing than others.

Prudence, preapproval, risk, and utility accountability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This section discusses the inherent risk in utility compliance planning and some means of reducing this risk. The risk originates from the fact that a compliance plan is extremely complex and involves forecasting situations fifteen or twenty years into the future. Two additional uncertainties peculiar to CAAA compliance are that the increased demand for low-sulfur coal and other substitute fuels is expected to place an unanticipatable premium on them and that the price of future emissions allowances is unknown. The prudent investment test and the issue of preapproval are also discussed. 14 refs

Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy: the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE).

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, M G; Kennedy, K P; MacDonagh, R P

2009-01-01

To develop a clinical prediction model enabling the calculation of an individual patient's life expectancy (LE) and survival probability based on age, sex, and comorbidity for use in the joint decision-making process regarding medical treatment. A computer software program was developed with a team of 3 clinicians, 2 professional actuaries, and 2 professional computer programmers. This incorporated statistical spreadsheet and database access design methods. Data sources included life insurance industry actuarial rating factor tables (public and private domain), Government Actuary Department UK life tables, professional actuarial sources, and evidence-based medical literature. The main outcome measures were numerical and graphical display of comorbidity-adjusted LE; 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probability; in addition to generic UK population LE. Nineteen medical conditions, which impacted significantly on LE in actuarial terms and were commonly encountered in clinical practice, were incorporated in the final model. Numerical and graphical representations of statistical predictions of LE and survival probability were successfully generated for patients with either no comorbidity or a combination of the 19 medical conditions included. Validation and testing, including actuarial peer review, confirmed consistency with the data sources utilized. The evidence-based actuarial data utilized in this computer program design represent a valuable resource for use in the clinical decision-making process, where an accurate objective assessment of patient LE can so often make the difference between patients being offered or denied medical and surgical treatment. Ongoing development to incorporate additional comorbidities and enable Web-based access will enhance its use further.

A Panel Data Model for Subjective Information on Household Income Growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Das, J.W.M.; van Soest, A.H.O.

1996-01-01

Subjective expectations about future income changes are analyzed, using household panel data.The models used are extensions of existing binary choice panel data models to the case of ordered response.We consider both random and fixed individual effects.The random effects model is estimated by

Long term plan of atomic energy development and utilization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

The atomic energy utilization and development in Japan have progressed remarkably, and already nuclear power generation has borne an important part in electric power supply, while radiation has been utilized in the fields of industry, agriculture, medicine and so on. Now, atomic energy is indispensable for national life and industrial activity. The former long term plan was decided in September, 1978, and the new long term plan should be established since the situation has changed largely. The energy substituting for petroleum has been demanded, and the expectation to nuclear power generation has heightened because it enables stable and economical power supply. The independently developed technology related to atomic energy must be put in practical use. The peaceful utilization of atomic energy must be promoted, while contributing to the nuclear non-proliferation policy. The Atomic Energy Commission of Japan decided the new long term plan to clearly show the outline of the important measures related to atomic energy development and utilization in 10 years hereafter, and the method of its promotion. The basic concept of atomic energy development and utilization, the long term prospect and the concept on the promotion, the method of promoting the development and utilization, and the problems of funds, engineers and location are described. (kako, I.)

Cost-utility analysis of antithyroid drug therapy versus 131I therapy for Graves' disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Katsumi; Abe, Katsumi; Sakata, Ikuko; Sakaguchi, Chiharu; Yamamoto, Kentaro; Kosuda, Shigeru

2005-01-01

There is no comparative cost-utility study between 131 I therapy and antithyroid drugs (ATD) therapy for Graves' disease, though 131 I therapy has higher remission rate and less side effects. The objective of the study was to analyze the cost-utility of ATD therapy versus 131 I therapy by calculating life-long medical costs and utility, based on the responses of Graves' disease patients to questionnaires. To determine the expected cost and expected utility, a decision tree analysis was designed on the basis of the 2 competing strategies of ATD therapy versus 131 I therapy. A simulation of 1,000 female patients weighing≥50 kg who assumed to experience the onset of Graves' disease at the age of 30, to first complain of thyrotoxic symptoms and moderate goiter 2-3 mo. previously, and to undergo a 40-years-long cohort study, was created for each strategy using a decision tree and baselines of other relevant variables. The variables and costs were based on the literature and hospital bills. The maximum and minimum values of utility were defined as 1.0 and 0.0, respectively. Future costs and utilities were discounted 5%. The medical costs and utilities were 85,739-88,650 yen/patient/40 years and 16.47-16.56/patient/40 years, respectively, for the ATD therapy strategy, and 81,842 yen/patient/40 years and 17.41/patient/40 years, respectively, for the 131 I therapy strategy. These results quantitatively demonstrated that the 131 I therapy strategy was superior to the ATD therapy strategy in terms of both cost and utility. 131 I therapy should be used more widely in Japan because of its greater utility and lower cost. (author)

Sustainable development and quality of life : expected effects of prospective changes in economic and environmental conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vlek, C.A.J.; Skolnik, M; Gatersleben, B.C.M.

1998-01-01

In the context of "sustainable development", we studied which attributes are important to people's quality of life (QoL) and which changes in QoL people would expect from future economic and environmental improvements or deteriorations. About 200 adult subjects evaluated the relative importance of

Performance appraisal of expectations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Russkikh G.A.

2016-11-01

Full Text Available this article provides basic concepts for teachers to estimate and reach planned students’ expectations, describes functions and elements of expectations; nature of external and internal estimate, technology to estimate the results, gives recommendations how to create diagnostic assignments.

Expected Classification Accuracy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lawrence M. Rudner

2005-08-01

Full Text Available Every time we make a classification based on a test score, we should expect some number..of misclassifications. Some examinees whose true ability is within a score range will have..observed scores outside of that range. A procedure for providing a classification table of..true and expected scores is developed for polytomously scored items under item response..theory and applied to state assessment data. A simplified procedure for estimating the..table entries is also presented.

The role of clean coal technologies in a deregulated rural utility market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neal, J.W. [National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, Arlington, VA (United States)

1997-12-31

The nation`s rural electric cooperatives own a high proportion of coal-fired generation, in excess of 80 percent of their generating capacity. As the electric utility industry moves toward a competitive electricity market, the generation mix for electric cooperatives is expected to change. Distributed generation will likely serve more customer loads than is now the case, and that will lead to an increase in gas-fired generation capacity. But, clean low-cost central station coal-fired capacity is expected to continue to be the primary source of power for growing rural electric cooperatives. Gasification combined cycle could be the lowest cost coal based generation option in this new competitive market if both capital cost and electricity production costs can be further reduced. This paper presents anticipated utility business scenarios for the deregulated future and identifies combined cycle power plant configurations that might prove most competitive.

[The impact of hypertension on active life expectancy among senior citizens of Beijing].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhong-ying; Tang, Zhe; Feng, Ming

2010-07-01

The aim of the study is to explore the influence of hypertension on life expectancy (LE), active life expectancy (ALE) and active life expectancy/life expectancy (ALE/LE) among senior citizens in Beijin. The sample derived from Beijing multidimensional longitudinal study on aging, baseline survey consisted of 1847 elderly people aged 60 years and over dwelling in the communities from one urban district (Xuanwu), one suburban country (Daxing) and one mountainous country (Huairou) in Beijing, 2004. Cluster, stratified and randomly selected sampling technique was used and a follow-up program was carried out in 2007. The subjects were invited to fill in questionnaires at home through well-trained interviewers, together with medical history of hypertension and repeated blood pressure measurements adopted. The state of activity was defined according to whether they could perform activities of daily life (ADL). IMaCH software for multi-state life table method was used to calculate the life expectancy (LE), active life expectancy (ALE) and active life expectancy/life expectancy (ALE/LE) in people with hypertension and normal blood tension, as well as on those people with hypertension with or without cardio-cerebral disease. The study manifested that hypertensives were associated with the reduction of LE, ALE and ALE/LE compared to the normotensives. The ALE/LE was descending along with ageing, and the speed of reduction was much faster in the hypertensive group, especially within senile population. LE, ALE and LE/LE among the hypertensives with cardio-cerebral vascular diseases were shorter than the hypertensives without the disease. Difference in ALE/LE was striking in people with virile senility. Hypertension remarkably impacted the active life expectancy on senior citizens living in Beijing, especially for elderly. Hypertensives with cardio-cerebral vascular diseases exerted further influence on active life expectancy, particularly among population of virile senility

Spiking the expectancy profiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

Melodic expectations are generated with different degrees of certainty. Given distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations of each context, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm, this certainty can be quantified in terms of Shannon entropy. Because expectations arise from s...

Adolescent expectations of early death predict adult risk behaviors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quynh C Nguyen

Full Text Available Only a handful of public health studies have investigated expectations of early death among adolescents. Associations have been found between these expectations and risk behaviors in adolescence. However, these beliefs may not only predict worse adolescent outcomes, but worse trajectories in health with ties to negative outcomes that endure into young adulthood. The objectives of this study were to investigate perceived chances of living to age 35 (Perceived Survival Expectations, PSE as a predictor of suicidal ideation, suicide attempt and substance use in young adulthood. We examined the predictive capacity of PSE on future suicidal ideation/attempt after accounting for sociodemographics, depressive symptoms, and history of suicide among family and friends to more fully assess its unique contribution to suicide risk. We investigated the influence of PSE on legal and illegal substance use and varying levels of substance use. We utilized the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health initiated in 1994-95 among 20,745 adolescents in grades 7-12 with follow-up interviews in 1996 (Wave II, 2001-02 (Wave III and 2008 (Wave IV; ages 24-32. Compared to those who were almost certain of living to age 35, perceiving a 50-50 or less chance of living to age 35 at Waves I or III predicted suicide attempt and ideation as well as regular substance use (i.e., exceeding daily limits for moderate drinking; smoking ≥ a pack/day; and using illicit substances other than marijuana at least weekly at Wave IV. Associations between PSE and detrimental adult outcomes were particularly strong for those reporting persistently low PSE at both Waves I and III. Low PSE at Wave I or Wave III was also related to a doubling and tripling, respectively, of death rates in young adulthood. Long-term and wide-ranging ties between PSE and detrimental outcomes suggest these expectations may contribute to identifying at-risk youth.