WorldWideScience

Sample records for subjective expected utility

  1. Subjective expected utility without preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Bouyssou , Denis; Marchant , Thierry

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a theory of subjective expected utility based on primitives only involving the fact that an act can be judged either "attractive" or "unattractive". We give conditions implying that there are a utility function on the set of consequences and a probability distribution on the set of states such that attractive acts have a subjective expected utility above some threshold. The numerical representation that is obtained has strong uniqueness properties.

  2. Subjective Expected Utility Theory with "Small Worlds"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gyntelberg, Jacob; Hansen, Frank

    which is a more general construction than a state space. We retain preference axioms similar in spirit to the Savage axioms and obtain, without abandoning linearity of expectations, a subjective expected utility theory which allows for an intuitive distinction between risk and uncertainty. We also...

  3. Subjective expected utility with non-increasing risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.

    1989-01-01

    It is shown that assumptions about risk aversion, usually studied under the presupposition of expected utility maximization, have a surprising extra merit at an earlier stage of the measurement work: together with the sure-thing principle, these assumptions imply subjective expected utility

  4. Subjective Expected Utility Theory without States of the World

    OpenAIRE

    Edi Karni

    2005-01-01

    This paper develops an axiomatic theory of decision making under uncertainty that dispenses with the state space. The results are subjective expected utility models with unique, action-dependent, subjective probabilities, and a utility function defined over wealth-effect pairs that is unique up to positive linear transformation.

  5. Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischoff, Baruch; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

  6. Expected utility without utility

    OpenAIRE

    Castagnoli, E.; Licalzi, M.

    1996-01-01

    This paper advances an interpretation of Von Neumann–Morgenstern’s expected utility model for preferences over lotteries which does not require the notion of a cardinal utility over prizes and can be phrased entirely in the language of probability. According to it, the expected utility of a lottery can be read as the probability that this lottery outperforms another given independent lottery. The implications of this interpretation for some topics and models in decision theory are considered....

  7. Comparison between the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory: predicting incontinence prevention behaviour in post-partum women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolman, M; Chase, J

    1996-08-01

    A small-scale study was undertaken to test the relative predictive power of the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory for the uptake of a behaviour (pelvic floor exercises) to reduce post-partum urinary incontinence in primigravida females. A structured questionnaire was used to gather data relevant to both models from a sample antenatal and postnatal primigravida women. Questions examined the perceived probability of becoming incontinent, the perceived (dis)utility of incontinence, the perceived probability of pelvic floor exercises preventing future urinary incontinence, the costs and benefits of performing pelvic floor exercises and sources of information and knowledge about incontinence. Multiple regression analysis focused on whether or not respondents intended to perform pelvic floor exercises and the factors influencing their decisions. Aggregated data were analysed to compare the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory directly.

  8. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  9. Cardinal Coordinate Independence for Expected Utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.

    1984-01-01

    A representation theorem for binary relations on (Re)n is derived. It is interpreted in the context of decision making under uncertainty. There we consider the existence of a subjective expected utility model to represent a preference relation of a person on the set of bets for money on a finite

  10. Cardinal Coordinate Independence for Expected Utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1984-01-01

    textabstractA representation theorem for binary relations on n is derived. It is interpreted in the context of decision making under uncertainty. There we consider the existence of a subjective expected utility model to represent a preference relation of a person on the set of bets for money on a

  11. A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.K. Sarin (Rakesh); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides an extension of Savage's subjective expected utility theory for decisions under uncertainty. It includes in the set of events both unambiguous events for which probabilities are additive and ambiguous events for which probabilities are permitted to be nonadditive. The

  12. A simple axiomatization of nonadditive expected utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Sarin, R.K.

    1992-01-01

    This paper provides an extension of Savage's subjective expected utility theory for decisions under uncertainty. It includes in the set of events both unambiguous events for which probabilities are additive as well as ambiguous events for which probabilities are permitted to be nonadditive. The main

  13. Multiattribute Utility Theory without Expected Utility Foundations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiggelbout, A.M.; Wakker, P.P.

    1995-01-01

    Methods for determining the form of utilities are needed for the implementation of utility theory in specific decisions. An important step forward was achieved when utility theorists characterized useful parametric families of utilities, and simplifying decompositions of multiattribute utilities.

  14. Multiattribute utility theory without expected utility foundations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Miyamoto, J.

    1996-01-01

    Methods for determining the form of utilities are needed for the implementation of utility theory in specific decisions. An important step forward was achieved when utility theorists characterized useful parametric families of utilities, and simplifying decompositions of multiattribute utilities.

  15. Multiattribute Utility Theory without Expected Utility Foundations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Miyamoto (John); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractMethods for determining the form of utilities are needed for the implementation of utility theory in specific decisions. An important step forward was achieved when utility theorists characterized useful parametric families of utilities and simplifying decompositions of multiattribute

  16. NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Tuthill, Jonathan W.; Frechette, Darren L.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.

  17. Stochastic Dominance under the Nonlinear Expected Utilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinling Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1947, von Neumann and Morgenstern introduced the well-known expected utility and the related axiomatic system (see von Neumann and Morgenstern (1953. It is widely used in economics, for example, financial economics. But the well-known Allais paradox (see Allais (1979 shows that the linear expected utility has some limitations sometimes. Because of this, Peng proposed a concept of nonlinear expected utility (see Peng (2005. In this paper we propose a concept of stochastic dominance under the nonlinear expected utilities. We give sufficient conditions on which a random choice X stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the nonlinear expected utilities. We also provide sufficient conditions on which a random choice X strictly stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the sublinear expected utilities.

  18. Beyond expected utility: rethinking behavioral decision research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frisch, D; Clemen, R T

    1994-07-01

    Much research in psychology has evaluated the quality of people's decisions by comparisons with subjective expected utility (SEU) theory. This article suggests that typical arguments made for the status of utility theory as normative do not justify its use by psychologists as a standard by which to evaluate decision quality. It is argued that to evaluate decision quality, researchers need to identify those decision processes that tend to lead to desirable outcomes. It is contended that a good decision-making process must be concerned with how (and whether) decision makers evaluate potential consequences of decisions, the extent to which they accurately identify all relevant consequences, and the way in which they make final choices. Research that bears on these issues is reviewed.

  19. Dynamic decision making without expected utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jaffray, Jean-Yves

    2006-01-01

    Non-expected utility theories, such as rank dependent utility (RDU) theory, have been proposed as alternative models to EU theory in decision making under risk. These models do not share the separability property of expected utility theory. This implies that, in a decision tree, if the reduction...... maker’s discordant goals at the different decision nodes. Relative to the computations involved in the standard expected utility evaluation of a decision problem, the main computational increase is due to the identification of non-dominated strategies by linear programming. A simulation, using the rank...

  20. Evolution of non-expected utility preferences

    CERN Document Server

    Widekind, Sven von; Fandel, G

    2008-01-01

    The theory on the evolution of preferences deals with the endogenous formation of preference relations in strategic situations. It is related to the field of evolutionary game theory. In this book we analyze the role and the influence of general, possibly non-expected utility preferences in such an evolutionary setup. In particular, we demonstrate that preferences which diverge from von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility may potentially prove to be successful under evolutionary pressures.

  1. Defining Trust Using Expected Utility Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Arai, Kazuhiro

    2009-01-01

    Trust has been discussed in many social sciences including economics, psychology, and sociology. However, there is no widely accepted definition of trust. Inparticular, there is no definition that can be used for economic analysis. This paper regards trust as expectation and defines it using expected utility theory together with concepts such as betrayal premium. In doing so, it rejects the widely accepted black-and-white view that (un) trustworthy people are always (un)trustworthy. This pape...

  2. Risk measures on networks and expected utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

  3. Rank dependent expected utility models of tax evasion.

    OpenAIRE

    Erling Eide

    2001-01-01

    In this paper the rank-dependent expected utility theory is substituted for the expected utility theory in models of tax evasion. It is demonstrated that the comparative statics results of the expected utility, portfolio choice model of tax evasion carry over to the more general rank dependent expected utility model.

  4. Expectation, information processing, and subjective duration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simchy-Gross, Rhimmon; Margulis, Elizabeth Hellmuth

    2018-01-01

    In research on psychological time, it is important to examine the subjective duration of entire stimulus sequences, such as those produced by music (Teki, Frontiers in Neuroscience, 10, 2016). Yet research on the temporal oddball illusion (according to which oddball stimuli seem longer than standard stimuli of the same duration) has examined only the subjective duration of single events contained within sequences, not the subjective duration of sequences themselves. Does the finding that oddballs seem longer than standards translate to entire sequences, such that entire sequences that contain oddballs seem longer than those that do not? Is this potential translation influenced by the mode of information processing-whether people are engaged in direct or indirect temporal processing? Two experiments aimed to answer both questions using different manipulations of information processing. In both experiments, musical sequences either did or did not contain oddballs (auditory sliding tones). To manipulate information processing, we varied the task (Experiment 1), the sequence event structure (Experiments 1 and 2), and the sequence familiarity (Experiment 2) independently within subjects. Overall, in both experiments, the sequences that contained oddballs seemed shorter than those that did not when people were engaged in direct temporal processing, but longer when people were engaged in indirect temporal processing. These findings support the dual-process contingency model of time estimation (Zakay, Attention, Perception & Psychophysics, 54, 656-664, 1993). Theoretical implications for attention-based and memory-based models of time estimation, the pacemaker accumulator and coding efficiency hypotheses of time perception, and dynamic attending theory are discussed.

  5. Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem.

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew Rabin.

    2000-01-01

    Within the expected-utility framework, the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave: A person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor. This paper provides a theorem showing that expected-utility theory is an utterly implausible explanation for appreciable risk aversion over modest stakes: Within expected-utility theory, for any concave utility function, even very little risk aversion over modest st...

  6. Are prescription drug insurance choices consistent with expected utility theory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundorf, M Kate; Mata, Rui; Schoenbaum, Michael; Bhattacharya, Jay

    2013-09-01

    To determine the extent to which people make choices inconsistent with expected utility theory when choosing among prescription drug insurance plans and whether tabular or graphical presentation format influences the consistency of their choices. Members of an Internet-enabled panel chose between two Medicare prescription drug plans. The "low variance" plan required higher out-of-pocket payments for the drugs respondents usually took but lower out-of-pocket payments for the drugs they might need if they developed a new health condition than the "high variance" plan. The probability of a change in health varied within subjects and the presentation format (text vs. graphical) and the affective salience of the clinical condition (abstract vs. risk related to specific clinical condition) varied between subjects. Respondents were classified based on whether they consistently chose either the low or high variance plan. Logistic regression models were estimated to examine the relationship between decision outcomes and task characteristics. The majority of respondents consistently chose either the low or high variance plan, consistent with expected utility theory. Half of respondents consistently chose the low variance plan. Respondents were less likely to make discrepant choices when information was presented in graphical format. Many people, although not all, make choices consistent with expected utility theory when they have information on differences among plans in the variance of out-of-pocket spending. Medicare beneficiaries would benefit from information on the extent to which prescription drug plans provide risk protection. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  7. Subjective Probabilities for State-Dependent Continuous Utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1987-01-01

    textabstractFor the expected utility model with state dependent utilities, Karni, Schmeidler and Vind (1983) have shown how to recover uniquely the involved subjective probabilities if the preferences, contingent on a hypothetical probability distribution over the state space, are known. This they

  8. Optimal provision of public goods with rank dependent expected utility

    OpenAIRE

    Eide, Erling

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the theory of rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU) is substituted for the theory of expected utility (EU) in a model of optimal provision of public goods. The substitution generalizes the Samuelson rule, previously modified to include deadweight loss and tax evasion loss.

  9. The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

    2009-12-01

    Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

  10. Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

    OpenAIRE

    Han Bleichrodt; José María Abellán-Perpiñan; JoséLuis Pinto; Ildefonso Méndez-Martínez

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores inconsistencies that occur in utility measurement under risk when expected utility theory is assumed and the contribution that prospect theory and some other generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these inconsistencies. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studied, prospect theory was the most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expe...

  11. Beyond Expected Utility in the Economics of Health and Longevity

    OpenAIRE

    Cordoba, Juan Carlos; Ripoll, Marla

    2013-01-01

    We document various limitations of the expected utility model for the study of health and longevity. The model assumes individuals are indifferent between early and late resolution of uncertainty. This assumption gives rise to predictions regarding the economic value of life that are inconsistent with relevant evidence. For example, poor individuals would price life below the present value of foregone income or even negatively. We show that a non-expected utility model disentangling intertemp...

  12. Economics versus psychology.Risk, uncertainty and the expected utility theory

    OpenAIRE

    Schilirò, Daniele

    2017-01-01

    The present contribution examines the emergence of expected utility theory by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, the subjective the expected utility theory by Savage, and the problem of choice under risk and uncertainty, focusing in particular on the seminal work “The Utility Analysis of Choices involving Risk" (1948) by Milton Friedman and Leonard Savage to show how the evolution of the theory of choice has determined a separation of economics from psychology.

  13. Power Dependence in Individual Bargaining: The Expected Utility of Influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawler, Edward J.; Bacharach, Samuel B.

    1979-01-01

    This study uses power-dependence theory as a framework for examining whether and how parties use information on each other's dependence to estimate the utility of an influence attempt. The effect of dependence in expected utilities is investigated (by role playing) in bargaining between employer and employee for a pay raise. (MF)

  14. A comparison of probability of ruin and expected discounted utility ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Individuals in defined-contribution retirement funds currently have a number of options as to how to finance their post-retirement spending. The paper considers the ranking of selected annuitisation strategies by the probability of ruin and by expected discounted utility under different scenarios. 'Ruin' is defined as occurring ...

  15. Nash was a first to axiomatize expected utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Bleichrodt (Han); C. Li (Chen); I. Moscati (Ivan); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractNash is famous for many inventions, but it is less known that he, simultaneously with Marschak, also was the first to axiomatize expected utility for risk. In particular, these authors were the first to state the independence condition, a condition that should have been but was not

  16. Under stochastic dominance choquet-expected utility and anticipated utility are identical

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.

    1990-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to convince the reader that Choquet-expected utility, as initiated by Schmeidler (1982) for decision making under uncertainty, when formulated for decision making under risk naturally leads to Yaari (1987)'s anticipated utility. Thus the two generalizations of expected

  17. Subjective residual life expectancy in health self-regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegelmann, Jochen P; Lippke, Sonia; Schwarzer, Ralf

    2006-07-01

    Applying socioemotional selectivity theory to the domain of health, we examined the interplay of social-cognitive predictors of physical exercise in two groups of people who perceived their remaining lifetime as either expansive or limited (based on subjective longevity ratings). Individuals (N = 370) who were prescribed physical exercise were assessed at discharge from orthopedic rehabilitation as well as 6 and 12 months later. Multigroup structural equation modeling showed differences in latent means, interrelations of predictors, and amount of explained variance. Individuals who perceived their time as limited reported a less favorable profile on social-cognitive variables and less exercise goal attainment. We give first insights on how health self-regulation differs in these groups, and we discuss avenues for intervention based on socioemotional selectivity theory. In contrast to chronological age, subjective life expectancy can be targeted by intervention.

  18. Is expected utility theory normative for medical decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, B J

    1996-01-01

    Expected utility theory is felt by its proponents to be a normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. The theory starts with some simple axioms that are held to be rules that any rational person would follow. It can be shown that if one adheres to these axioms, a numerical quantity, generally referred to as utility, can be assigned to each possible outcome, with the preferred course of action being that which has the highest expected utility. One of these axioms, the independence principle, is controversial, and is frequently violated in experimental situations. Proponents of the theory hold that these violations are irrational. The independence principle is simply an axiom dictating consistency among preferences, in that it dictates that a rational agent should hold a specified preference given another stated preference. When applied to preferences between lotteries, the independence principle can be demonstrated to be a rule that is followed only when preferences are formed in a particular way. The logic of expected utility theory is that this demonstration proves that preferences should be formed in this way. An alternative interpretation is that this demonstrates that the independence principle is not a valid general rule of consistency, but in particular, is a rule that must be followed if one is to consistently apply the decision rule "choose the lottery that has the highest expected utility." This decision rule must be justified on its own terms as a valid rule of rationality by demonstration that violation would lead to decisions that conflict with the decision maker's goals. This rule does not appear to be suitable for medical decisions because often these are one-time decisions in which expectation, a long-run property of a random variable, would not seem to be applicable. This is particularly true for those decisions involving a non-trivial risk of death.

  19. A simple test of expected utility theory using professional traders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, John A; Haigh, Michael S

    2005-01-18

    We compare behavior across students and professional traders from the Chicago Board of Trade in a classic Allais paradox experiment. Our experiment tests whether independence, a necessary condition in expected utility theory, is systematically violated. We find that both students and professionals exhibit some behavior consistent with the Allais paradox, but the data pattern does suggest that the trader population falls prey to the Allais paradox less frequently than the student population.

  20. Factors Associated With Subjective Life Expectancy: Comparison With Actuarial Life Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaekyoung Bae

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives Subjective life expectancy (SLE has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE in Korea. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Korea was used to evaluate differences between SLE and actuarial LE. Age-adjusted least-squares means, correlations, and regression analyses were used to test the relationship of SLE with four categories of predictors: demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Results Among the 1000 participants, women (mean SLE, 83.43 years; 95% confidence interval, 82.41 to 84.46 years; 48% of the total sample had an expected LE 1.59 years longer than that of men. The socioeconomic factors of household income and housing arrangements were related to SLE. Among the health behaviors, smoking status, alcohol status, and physical activity were associated with SLE. Among the psychosocial factors, stress, self-rated health, and social connectedness were related to SLE. SLE had a positive correlation with actuarial estimates (r=0.61, p<0.001. Gender, household income, history of smoking, and distress were related to the presence of a gap between SLE and actuarial LE. Conclusions Demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors showed significant associations with SLE, in the expected directions. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for these results.

  1. Under stochastic dominance Choquet-expected utility and anticipated utility are identical

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractThe aim of this paper is to convince the reader that Choquet-expected utility, as initiated by Schmeidler (1982, 1989) for decision making under uncertainty, when formulated for decision making under risk naturally leads to anticipated utility, as initiated by Quiggin/Yaari. Thus the two

  2. A Single-Stage Approach to Anscombe and Aumann's Expected Utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.K. Sarin (Rakesh); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractAnscombe and Aumann showed that if one accepts the existence of a physical randomizing device such as a roulette wheel then Savage's derivation of subjective expected utility can be considerably simplified. They, however, invoked compound gambles to define their axioms. We demonstrate

  3. A single-stage approach to Ancombe and Aumann's expected utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Sarin, R.K.

    1997-01-01

    Anscombe and Aumann showed that if one accepts the existence of a physical randomizing device such as a roulette wheel then Savage's derivation of subjective expected utility can be considerably simplified. They, however, invoked compound gambles to define their axioms. We demonstrate that the

  4. Expected utility violations evolve under status-based selection mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickson, Eric S

    2008-10-07

    The expected utility theory of decision making under uncertainty, a cornerstone of modern economics, assumes that humans linearly weight "utilities" for different possible outcomes by the probabilities with which these outcomes occur. Despite the theory's intuitive appeal, both from normative and from evolutionary perspectives, many experiments demonstrate systematic, though poorly understood, patterns of deviation from EU predictions. This paper offers a novel theoretical account of such patterns of deviation by demonstrating that EU violations can emerge from evolutionary selection when individual "status" affects inclusive fitness. In humans, battles for resources and social standing involve high-stakes decision making, and assortative mating ensures that status matters for fitness outcomes. The paper therefore proposes grounding the study of decision making under uncertainty in an evolutionary game-theoretic framework.

  5. Why environmental and resource economists should care about non-expected utility models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaw, W. Douglass; Woodward, Richard T. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A and M University (United States)

    2008-01-15

    Experimental and theoretical analysis has shown that the conventional expected utility (EU) and subjective expected utility (SEU) models, which are linear in probabilities, have serious limitations in certain situations. We argue here that these limitations are often highly relevant to the work that environmental and natural resource economists do. We discuss some of the experimental evidence and alternatives to the SEU. We consider the theory used, the problems studied, and the methods employed by resource economists. Finally, we highlight some recent work that has begun to use some of the alternatives to the EU and SEU frameworks and discuss areas where much future work is needed. (author)

  6. Children's utilization of emotion expectancies in moral decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertz, Steven G; Krettenauer, Tobias

    2014-09-01

    This study investigated the relevance of emotion expectancies for children's moral decision-making. The sample included 131 participants from three different grade levels (M = 8.39 years, SD = 2.45, range 4.58-12.42). Participants were presented a set of scenarios that described various emotional outcomes of (im)moral actions and asked to decide what they would do if they were in the protagonists' shoes. Overall, it was found that the anticipation of moral emotions predicted an increased likelihood of moral choices in antisocial and prosocial contexts. In younger children, anticipated moral emotions predicted moral choice for prosocial actions, but not for antisocial actions. Older children showed evidence for the utilization of anticipated emotions in both prosocial and antisocial behaviours. Moreover, for older children, the decision to act prosocially was less likely in the presence of non-moral emotions. Findings suggest that the impact of emotion expectancies on children's moral decision-making increases with age. Contrary to happy victimizer research, the study does not support the notion that young children use moral emotion expectancies for moral decision-making in the context of antisocial actions. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  7. The Utility of Single Subject Design Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Kyle D.

    2016-01-01

    Single subject design (SSD) research is a quantitative approach used to investigate basic and applied research questions. It has been used for decades to examine issues of social importance such as those related to general and special education strategies, therapeutic approaches in mental health, community health practices, safety, and business…

  8. Deriving the expected utility of a predictive model when the utilities are uncertain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Gregory F; Visweswaran, Shyam

    2005-01-01

    Predictive models are often constructed from clinical databases with the goal of eventually helping make better clinical decisions. Evaluating models using decision theory is therefore natural. When constructing a model using statistical and machine learning methods, however, we are often uncertain about precisely how the model will be used. Thus, decision-independent measures of classification performance, such as the area under an ROC curve, are popular. As a complementary method of evaluation, we investigate techniques for deriving the expected utility of a model under uncertainty about the model's utilities. We demonstrate an example of the application of this approach to the evaluation of two models that diagnose coronary artery disease.

  9. Preferences UnderUncertainty and the Deficiencies of the Expected Utility Model

    OpenAIRE

    Murat Tasdemir

    2007-01-01

    In economics, the prevailing framework to explain preferences under uncerta- inty is the Expected Utility theory. Despite its widespread use, the Expected Utility theory is not free from problems. Experimental and empirical works shows that, in real life, the choices of individuals among risky alternatives conflict with the axioms of the Expected Utility theory. This study, in the light of experimental studies, investigates the problems with the Expected Utility theory regarding the individua...

  10. What a utility expects from its supplier organizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winitsky, H.B.

    1986-01-01

    The suppliers of its goods and services are a most important resource of the utility industry. The unique and mutually beneficial technical relationship between utilities and their suppliers has been and continues to be a major contributor to the power industry's viability, vitality and growth, and thus to America's standard of living. The commercial and legal aspects of this relationship have been changing. This paper addresses the principles of: reasonably allocating and responsibility and accountability for ''the products'' provided to utilities including nuclear utilities; equitable risk-sharing as a prime requirement of utility procurement decision making; and the present and future relationship of the unique supplier/utility partnership as influenced and shaped by these requirements

  11. Promoting Physical Activity in Hong Kong Chinese Young People: Factors Influencing Their Subjective Task Values and Expectancy Beliefs in Physical Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Bonnie

    2014-01-01

    According to Eccles et al.'s (1983) Expectancy Value Model, the two major constructs that influence young people's activity choice are subjective task value and expectancy beliefs (Eccles et al., 1983). Eccles et al. (1983) conceptually distinguished four dimensions of subjective task value: attainment value, intrinsic value, utility value and…

  12. Expected Utility Illustrated: A Graphical Analysis of Gambles with More than Two Possible Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Frederick H.

    2010-01-01

    The author presents a simple geometric method to graphically illustrate the expected utility from a gamble with more than two possible outcomes. This geometric result gives economics students a simple visual aid for studying expected utility theory and enables them to analyze a richer set of decision problems under uncertainty compared to what…

  13. Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howlett, Jonathon R; Paulus, Martin P

    2017-01-01

    Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate

  14. Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathon R. Howlett

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not. We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points. Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve, while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway

  15. Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howlett, Jonathon R.; Paulus, Martin P.

    2017-01-01

    Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate

  16. Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

  17. Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: A comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches

    OpenAIRE

    d'Acremont, M.; Bossaerts, Peter

    2008-01-01

    When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely ...

  18. Altered brain responses in subjects with irritable bowel syndrome during cued and uncued pain expectation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, J-Y; Naliboff, B; Labus, J S; Gupta, A; Kilpatrick, L A; Ashe-McNalley, C; Stains, J; Heendeniya, N; Smith, S R; Tillisch, K; Mayer, E A

    2016-01-01

    A majority of the subjects with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) show increased behavioral and brain responses to expected and delivered aversive visceral stimuli during controlled rectal balloon distension, and during palpation of the sigmoid colon. We aimed to determine if altered brain responses to cued and uncued pain expectation are also seen in the context of a noxious somatic pain stimulus applied to the same dermatome as the sigmoid colon. A task-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging technique was used to investigate the brain activity of 37 healthy controls (18 females) and 37 IBS subjects (21 females) during: (i) a cued expectation of an electric shock to the abdomen vs a cued safe condition; and (ii) an uncued cross-hair condition in which the threat is primarily based on context vs a cued safe condition. Regions within the salience, attention, default mode, and emotional arousal networks were more activated by the cued abdominal threat condition and the uncued condition than in the cued safe condition. During the uncued condition contrasted to the cued safe condition, IBS subjects (compared to healthy control subjects) showed greater brain activations in the affective (amygdala, anterior insula) and attentional (middle frontal gyrus) regions, and in the thalamus and precuneus. These disease-related differences were primarily seen in female subjects. The observed greater engagement of cognitive and emotional brain networks in IBS subjects during contextual threat may reflect the propensity of IBS subjects to overestimate the likelihood and severity of future abdominal pain. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Do violations of the axioms of expected utility theory threaten decision analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nease, R F

    1996-01-01

    Research demonstrates that people violate the independence principle of expected utility theory, raising the question of whether expected utility theory is normative for medical decision making. The author provides three arguments that violations of the independence principle are less problematic than they might first appear. First, the independence principle follows from other more fundamental axioms whose appeal may be more readily apparent than that of the independence principle. Second, the axioms need not be descriptive to be normative, and they need not be attractive to all decision makers for expected utility theory to be useful for some. Finally, by providing a metaphor of decision analysis as a conversation between the actual decision maker and a model decision maker, the author argues that expected utility theory need not be purely normative for decision analysis to be useful. In short, violations of the independence principle do not necessarily represent direct violations of the axioms of expected utility theory; behavioral violations of the axioms of expected utility theory do not necessarily imply that decision analysis is not normative; and full normativeness is not necessary for decision analysis to generate valuable insights.

  20. The Combined Effects of Alcohol, Caffeine and Expectancies on Subjective Experience, Impulsivity and Risk-Taking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinz, Adrienne J.; de Wit, Harriet; Lilje, Todd C.; Kassel, Jon D.

    2013-01-01

    Caffeinated alcoholic beverage (CAB) consumption is a rapidly growing phenomenon among young adults and is associated with a variety of health-risk behaviors. The current study examined whether either caffeinated alcohol or the expectation of receiving caffeinated alcohol altered affective, cognitive and behavioral outcomes hypothesized to contribute to risk behavior. Young adult social drinkers (N=146) participated in a single session where they received alcohol (peak Breath Alcohol Content = .088 g/dL, SD = .019; equivalent to about 4 standard drinks) and were randomly assigned to one of four further conditions 1) no caffeine, no caffeine expectancy, 2) caffeine and caffeine expectancy, 3) no caffeine but caffeine expectancy, 4) caffeine but no caffeine expectancy. Participants’ habitual CAB consumption was positively correlated with measures of impulsivity and risky behavior, independently of study drugs. Administration of caffeine (mean dose = 220 mg, SD = 38; equivalent to about 2.75 Red Bulls) in the study reduced subjective ratings of intoxication and reversed the decrease in desire to continue drinking, regardless of expectancy. Caffeine also reduced the effect of alcohol on inhibitory reaction time (faster incorrect responses). Participants not expecting caffeine were less attentive after alcohol, whereas participants expecting caffeine were not, regardless of caffeine administration. Alcohol decreased response accuracy in all participants except those who both expected and received caffeine. Findings suggest that CABs may elevate risk for continued drinking by reducing perceived intoxication, and by maintaining the desire to continue drinking. Simply expecting to consume caffeine may reduce the effects of alcohol on inattention, and either expecting or consuming caffeine may protect against other alcohol-related performance decrements. Caffeine, when combined with alcohol, has both beneficial and detrimental effects on mechanisms known to contribute to

  1. The Influence of Subjective Life Expectancy on Retirement Transition and Planning: A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Barbara; Hesketh, Beryl; Loh, Vanessa

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the construct of subjective life expectancy (SLE), or the estimation of one's probable age of death. Drawing on the tenets of socioemotional selectivity theory (Carstensen, Isaacowitz, & Charles, 1999), we propose that SLE provides individuals with their own unique mental model of remaining time that is likely to affect their…

  2. Expected utility and catastrophic risk in a stochastic economy-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikefuji, M. [Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka (Japan); Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

    2010-11-15

    In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected utility with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typically model economic catastrophes by probability distributions with heavy tails. Unfortunately, the expected utility framework is fragile with respect to heavy-tailed distributional assumptions. We specify a stochastic economy-climate model with power utility and explicitly demonstrate this fragility. We derive necessary and sufficient compatibility conditions on the utility function to avoid fragility and solve our stochastic economy-climate model for two examples of such compatible utility functions. We further develop and implement a procedure to learn the input parameters of our model and show that the model thus specified produces quite robust optimal policies. The numerical results indicate that higher levels of uncertainty (heavier tails) lead to less abatement and consumption, and to more investment, but this effect is not unlimited.

  3. Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: a comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Acremont, Mathieu; Bossaerts, Peter

    2008-12-01

    When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely cumbersome when it comes to learning. Finance academics and professionals, however, prefer to value risky prospects in terms of a trade-off between expected reward and risk, where the latter is usually measured in terms of reward variance. This mean-variance approach is fast and simple and greatly facilitates learning, but it impedes assigning values to new gambles on the basis of those of known ones. To date, it is unclear whether the human brain computes values in accordance with expected utility theory or with mean-variance analysis. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical arguments that favor one or the other theory. We also propose a new experimental paradigm that could determine whether the human brain follows the expected utility or the mean-variance approach. Behavioral results of implementation of the paradigm are discussed.

  4. Loss Modification Incentives for Insurers Under Expected Utility and Loss Aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Zhou, Liting

    We investigate whether a profit-maximizing insurer with the opportunity to modify the loss probability will engage in loss prevention or instead spend effort to increase the loss probability. First we study this question within a traditional expected utility framework; then we apply Koszegi and

  5. A Unifying Approach to Axiomatic Non-Expected Utility Theories: Correction and Comment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.H. Chew; L.G. Epstein (Larry); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1993-01-01

    textabstractChew and Epstein attempted to provide a unifying axiomatic framework for a number of generalizations of expected utility theory. Wakker pointed out that Theorem A, on which the central unifying proposition is based, is false. In this note, we apply Segal′s result to prove that Theorem 2

  6. From outcomes to acts : a non-standard axiomatization of the expected utility principle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterson, M.B.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents an axiomatization of the principle of maximizing expected utility that does not rely on the independence axiom or sure-thing principle. Perhaps more importantly the new axiomatization is based on an ex ante approach, instead of the standard ex post approach. An ex post approach

  7. A unifying approach to axiomatic non-expected utility theories: correction and comment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hong, C.S.; Epstein, L.G.; Wakker, P.

    1993-01-01

    Chew and Epstein attempted to provide a unifying axiomatic framework for a number of generalizations of expected utility theory. Wakker pointed out that Theorem A, on which the central unifying proposition is based, is false. In this note, we apply Segal's result to prove that Theorem 2 is

  8. Stock Selection for Portfolios Using Expected Utility-Entropy Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiping Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Yang and Qiu proposed and then recently improved an expected utility-entropy (EU-E measure of risk and decision model. When segregation holds, Luce et al. derived an expected utility term, plus a constant multiplies the Shannon entropy as the representation of risky choices, further demonstrating the reasonability of the EU-E decision model. In this paper, we apply the EU-E decision model to selecting the set of stocks to be included in the portfolios. We first select 7 and 10 stocks from the 30 component stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and then derive and compare the efficient portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The conclusions imply that efficient portfolios composed of 7(10 stocks selected using the EU-E model with intermediate intervals of the tradeoff coefficients are more efficient than that composed of the sets of stocks selected using the expected utility model. Furthermore, the efficient portfolio of 7(10 stocks selected by the EU-E decision model have almost the same efficient frontier as that of the sample of all stocks. This suggests the necessity of incorporating both the expected utility and Shannon entropy together when taking risky decisions, further demonstrating the importance of Shannon entropy as the measure of uncertainty, as well as the applicability of the EU-E model as a decision-making model.

  9. Utility Expectations for Human Performance and Safety Culture in the Supplier Community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clewett, L. K.

    2016-01-01

    Canadian NPPs, like many others around the world, make use of suppliers for the design and execution of major projects, and to support on-going inspection and maintenance activities. The work performed by suppliers today represents a significant portion of the work performed at utility NPPs, and, at times, can even exceed the work performed by utility staff. It is imperative for both the utility and the supplier work forces to work in collaboration to ensure that the probability of consequential errors impacting plant safety or contributing to broader enterprise risk is kept very low. An important element for keeping the risk low is for utilities to work with their suppliers to develop a high degree of confidence that the supplier workforce is performing to the same standards of human performance and safety culture as its own staff. This paper will provide a senior utility executive’s expectations and perspective on achieving excellence in supplier human performance and safety culture. (author)

  10. Adaptation gap hypothesis: How differences between users’ expected and perceived agent functions affect their subjective impression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takanori Komatsu

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available We describe an “adaptation gap” that indicates the differences between the functions of artificial agents that users expect before starting their interactions and the functions they perceive after their interactions. We investigated the effect of this adaptation gap on users’ impressions of artificial agents because any variations in impression before and after the start of an interaction determines whether the user feels that this agent is worth interacting with. The results showed that positive or negative signs of the adaptation gap and subjective impression scores of agents before the experiment significantly affected the users’ final impressions of the agents.

  11. The Temporal Derivative of Expected Utility: A Neural Mechanism for Dynamic Decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xian; Hirsch, Joy

    2012-01-01

    Real world tasks involving moving targets, such as driving a vehicle, are performed based on continuous decisions thought to depend upon the temporal derivative of the expected utility (∂V/∂t), where the expected utility (V) is the effective value of a future reward. However, those neural mechanisms that underlie dynamic decision-making are not well understood. This study investigates human neural correlates of both V and ∂V/∂t using fMRI and a novel experimental paradigm based on a pursuit-evasion game optimized to isolate components of dynamic decision processes. Our behavioral data show that players of the pursuit-evasion game adopt an exponential discounting function, supporting the expected utility theory. The continuous functions of V and ∂V/∂t were derived from the behavioral data and applied as regressors in fMRI analysis, enabling temporal resolution that exceeded the sampling rate of image acquisition, hyper-temporal resolution, by taking advantage of numerous trials that provide rich and independent manipulation of those variables. V and ∂V/∂t were each associated with distinct neural activity. Specifically, ∂V/∂t was associated with anterior and posterior cingulate cortices, superior parietal lobule, and ventral pallidum, whereas V was primarily associated with supplementary motor, pre and post central gyri, cerebellum, and thalamus. The association between the ∂V/∂t and brain regions previously related to decision-making is consistent with the primary role of the temporal derivative of expected utility in dynamic decision-making. PMID:22963852

  12. Traditional finance : behavioral finance distinction in the context of expected utility and prospect theories

    OpenAIRE

    Tekin, Bilgehan

    2016-01-01

    Traditional finance has developed based on two fundamental assumptions, including the expected utility theory and rational choice or decision. However, this hypothesis has been criticized heavily by put forward that are not realistic enough. The basis of behavioral finance theory is based on the “prospect theory”. According to this theory individuals cannot act fully rational, they install more sense to loses than at the same amount of profit and they exhibit risk and loss aversion behaviour....

  13. The temporal derivative of expected utility: a neural mechanism for dynamic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xian; Hirsch, Joy

    2013-01-15

    Real world tasks involving moving targets, such as driving a vehicle, are performed based on continuous decisions thought to depend upon the temporal derivative of the expected utility (∂V/∂t), where the expected utility (V) is the effective value of a future reward. However, the neural mechanisms that underlie dynamic decision-making are not well understood. This study investigates human neural correlates of both V and ∂V/∂t using fMRI and a novel experimental paradigm based on a pursuit-evasion game optimized to isolate components of dynamic decision processes. Our behavioral data show that players of the pursuit-evasion game adopt an exponential discounting function, supporting the expected utility theory. The continuous functions of V and ∂V/∂t were derived from the behavioral data and applied as regressors in fMRI analysis, enabling temporal resolution that exceeded the sampling rate of image acquisition, hyper-temporal resolution, by taking advantage of numerous trials that provide rich and independent manipulation of those variables. V and ∂V/∂t were each associated with distinct neural activity. Specifically, ∂V/∂t was associated with anterior and posterior cingulate cortices, superior parietal lobule, and ventral pallidum, whereas V was primarily associated with supplementary motor, pre and post central gyri, cerebellum, and thalamus. The association between the ∂V/∂t and brain regions previously related to decision-making is consistent with the primary role of the temporal derivative of expected utility in dynamic decision-making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Learning and dynamic choices under uncertainty: from weighted regret and rejoice to expected utility

    OpenAIRE

    Zagonari, Fabio

    2016-01-01

    This paper identifies the globally stable conditions under which an individual facing the same choice in many subsequent times learns to behave as prescribed by the expected-utility model. To do so, the analysis moves from the relevant behavioural models suggested by psychology (i.e., weighted probabilities applied to regret and rejoice theory), and by updating probability estimations and outcome preferences according to the learning models suggested by neuroscience (i.e., adaptive learning a...

  15. A quantitative approach to choose among multiple mutually exclusive decisions: comparative expected utility theory

    OpenAIRE

    Zhu, Pengyu

    2018-01-01

    Mutually exclusive decisions have been studied for decades. Many well-known decision theories have been defined to help people either to make rational decisions or to interpret people's behaviors, such as expected utility theory, regret theory, prospect theory, and so on. The paper argues that none of these decision theories are designed to provide practical, normative and quantitative approaches for multiple mutually exclusive decisions. Different decision-makers should naturally make differ...

  16. Expected Power-Utility Maximization Under Incomplete Information and with Cox-Process Observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimoto, Kazufumi; Nagai, Hideo; Runggaldier, Wolfgang J.

    2013-01-01

    We consider the problem of maximization of expected terminal power utility (risk sensitive criterion). The underlying market model is a regime-switching diffusion model where the regime is determined by an unobservable factor process forming a finite state Markov process. The main novelty is due to the fact that prices are observed and the portfolio is rebalanced only at random times corresponding to a Cox process where the intensity is driven by the unobserved Markovian factor process as well. This leads to a more realistic modeling for many practical situations, like in markets with liquidity restrictions; on the other hand it considerably complicates the problem to the point that traditional methodologies cannot be directly applied. The approach presented here is specific to the power-utility. For log-utilities a different approach is presented in Fujimoto et al. (Preprint, 2012).

  17. Expected Power-Utility Maximization Under Incomplete Information and with Cox-Process Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujimoto, Kazufumi, E-mail: m_fuji@kvj.biglobe.ne.jp [Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd., Corporate Risk Management Division (Japan); Nagai, Hideo, E-mail: nagai@sigmath.es.osaka-u.ac.jp [Osaka University, Division of Mathematical Science for Social Systems, Graduate School of Engineering Science (Japan); Runggaldier, Wolfgang J., E-mail: runggal@math.unipd.it [Universita di Padova, Dipartimento di Matematica Pura ed Applicata (Italy)

    2013-02-15

    We consider the problem of maximization of expected terminal power utility (risk sensitive criterion). The underlying market model is a regime-switching diffusion model where the regime is determined by an unobservable factor process forming a finite state Markov process. The main novelty is due to the fact that prices are observed and the portfolio is rebalanced only at random times corresponding to a Cox process where the intensity is driven by the unobserved Markovian factor process as well. This leads to a more realistic modeling for many practical situations, like in markets with liquidity restrictions; on the other hand it considerably complicates the problem to the point that traditional methodologies cannot be directly applied. The approach presented here is specific to the power-utility. For log-utilities a different approach is presented in Fujimoto et al. (Preprint, 2012).

  18. Life expectancy impacts due to heating energy utilization in China: Distribution, relations, and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shaobin; Luo, Kunli

    2018-01-01

    The relation between life expectancy and energy utilization is of particular concern. Different viewpoints concerned the health impacts of heating policy in China. However, it is still obscure that what kind of heating energy or what pattern of heating methods is the most related with the difference of life expectancies in China. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively investigate the spatial relations between life expectancy at birth (LEB) and different heating energy utilization in China by using spatial autocorrelation models including global spatial autocorrelation, local spatial autocorrelation and hot spot analysis. The results showed that: (1) Most of heating energy exhibit a distinct north-south difference, such as central heating supply, stalks and domestic coal. Whereas spatial distribution of domestic natural gas and electricity exhibited west-east differences. (2) Consumption of central heating, stalks and domestic coal show obvious spatial dependence. Whereas firewood, natural gas and electricity did not show significant spatial autocorrelation. It exhibited an extinct south-north difference of heat supply, stalks and domestic coal which were identified to show significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (3) Central heating, residential boilers and natural gas did not show any significant correlations with LEB. While, the utilization of domestic coal and biomass showed significant negative correlations with LEB, and household electricity shows positive correlations. The utilization of domestic coal in China showed a negative effect on LEB, rather than central heating. To improve the solid fuel stoves and control consumption of domestic coal consumption and other low quality solid fuel is imperative to improve the public health level in China in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality: results of a 10-year panel study among older workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Solinge, Hanna; Henkens, Kène

    2018-06-01

    This research examined the judgemental process underlying subjective life expectancy (SLE) and the predictive value of SLE on actual mortality in older adults in the Netherlands. We integrated theoretical insights from life satisfaction research with existing models of SLE. Our model differentiates between bottom-up (objective data of any type) and top-down factors (psychological variables). The study used data from the first wave of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute Work and Retirement Panel. This is a prospective cohort study among Dutch older workers. The analytical sample included 2278 individuals, assessed at age 50-64 in 2001, with vital statistics tracked through 2011. We used a linear regression model to estimate the impact of bottom-up and top-down factors on SLE. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the impact of SLE on the timing of mortality, crude and adjusted for actuarial correlates of general life expectancy, family history, health and trait-like dispositions. Results reveal that psychological variables play a role in the formation of SLE. Further, the results indicate that SLE predicts actual mortality, crude and adjusted for socio-demographic, biomedical and psychological confounders. Education has an additional effect on mortality. Those with higher educational attainment were less likely to die within the follow-up period. This SES gradient in mortality was not captured in SLE. The findings indicate that SLE is an independent predictor of mortality in a pre-retirement cohort in the Netherlands. SLE does not fully capture educational differences in mortality. Particularly, higher-educated individuals underestimate their life expectancy.

  20. Expected Utility Based Decision Making under Z-Information and Its Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliev, Rashad R; Mraiziq, Derar Atallah Talal; Huseynov, Oleg H

    2015-01-01

    Real-world decision relevant information is often partially reliable. The reasons are partial reliability of the source of information, misperceptions, psychological biases, incompetence, and so forth. Z-numbers based formalization of information (Z-information) represents a natural language (NL) based value of a variable of interest in line with the related NL based reliability. What is important is that Z-information not only is the most general representation of real-world imperfect information but also has the highest descriptive power from human perception point of view as compared to fuzzy number. In this study, we present an approach to decision making under Z-information based on direct computation over Z-numbers. This approach utilizes expected utility paradigm and is applied to a benchmark decision problem in the field of economics.

  1. Crack initiation behaviors of metallic walls subjected to high heat flux expected at plasma disruption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamazaki, Seiichiro; Uno, Masayoshi; Seki, Masahiro.

    1989-01-01

    Experimental and numerical studies were performed to investigate crack initiation behavior near a surface of stainless steel and tungsten when subjected to extremely high heat flux. The improved electron beam test facility was used as the heat source. Two-dimensional thermal and elasto-plastic stress analyses were also performed. From the results for stainless steel, micro-cracks about 0.1 mm deep only initiated in the resolidified layer along dendrites. No cracks propagated into the non-melted zone, and repeated heating of up to 20 times did not affect the depth and population of the cracks. According to the elasto-plastic stress analyses, no fatigue cracks were expected. Cracks with a depth of more than a few millimeters were observed in a tungsten plate. The cracks initiated at a boundary between heated and unheated areas. They grew into the non-melted zone, and curved towards the center part of the heated area. The elasto-plastic stress analyses indicated that the cracks were initiated due to the residual tensile strain after heated at the surface of the test specimen. When the heat flux was repeated, the cracks propagated and penetrated to the rear side of the test specimen in several repetition. (author)

  2. When Kahneman meets Manski: Using dual systems of reasoning to interpret subjective expectations of equity returns

    OpenAIRE

    Gouret , Fabian; Hollard , Guillaume

    2011-01-01

    International audience; To understand how decisions to invest in stocks are taken, economists need to elicit expectations relative to expected risk-return trade-off. One of the few surveys which have included such questions is the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999-2001. Using this survey, Dominitz and Manski find an important heterogeneity across respondents that can hardly be accounted for by simple models of expectations formation. This paper claims that much of the heterogeneity deri...

  3. [Professional's expectations to improve quality of care and social services utilization in geriatric oncology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoine, Valéry; de Wazières, Benoît; Houédé, Nadine

    2015-02-01

    Coordination of a multidisciplinary and multi-professional intervention is a key issue in the management of elderly cancer patients to improve health status and quality of life. Optimizing the links between professionals is needed to improve care planning, health and social services utilization. Descriptive study in a French University Hospital. A 6-item structured questionnaire was addressed to professionals involved in global and supportive cares of elderly cancer patients (name, location, effective health care and services offered, needs to improve the quality of their intervention). After the analysis of answers, definition of propositions to improve cares and services utilization. The 37 respondents identified a total of 166 needs to improve quality of care in geriatric oncology. Major expectations were concerning improvement of global/supportive cares and health care services utilization, a better coordination between geriatric teams and oncologists. Ten propositions, including a model of in-hospital health care planning, were defined to answer to professional's needs with the aim of optimizing cancer treatment and global cares. Identification of effective services and needs can represent a first step in a continuous program to improve quality of cares, according to the French national cancer plan 2014-2019. It allows federating professionals for a coordination effort, a better organization of the clinical activity in geriatric oncology, to optimize clinical practice and global cares. Copyright © 2014 Société Française du Cancer. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. Current maternal age recommendations for prenatal diagnosis: a reappraisal using the expected utility theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicherman, N; Bombard, A T; Rappoport, P

    1995-01-01

    The expected utility theory suggests eliminating an age-specific criterion for recommending prenatal diagnosis to patients. We isolate the factors which patients and physicians need to consider intelligently in prenatal diagnosis, and show that the sole use of a threshold age as a screening device is inadequate. Such a threshold fails to consider adequately patients' attitudes regarding many of the possible outcomes of prenatal diagnosis; in particular, the birth of a chromosomally abnormal child and procedural-related miscarriages. It also precludes testing younger women and encourages testing in patients who do not necessarily require or desire it. All pregnant women should be informed about their prenatal diagnosis options, screening techniques, and diagnostic procedures, including their respective limitations, risks, and benefits.

  5. Expected roles and utilization of specialist nurses in Japan: the nurse administrators' perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onishi, Mami; Kanda, Katsuya

    2010-04-01

    This study explored (1) expected roles for specialist nurses in Japan and (2) nurse administrators' experience-based management strategies for effective implementation of these roles. Background In Japan, specialist nurses have begun to be recognized as valuable human resources. However, managerial issues in utilizing specialist nurses, including unclear roles and lack of reports on effective management strategies, remain. Three focus-group discussions were conducted. Nine nurse administrators participated. Data were analysed using qualitative content analysis techniques. The expected roles for specialist nurses were: (1) facilitating general nurses' learning; (2) monitoring and improving the patient care standard; and (3) developing new roles for nursing. Two management strategies were: (1) enhancing specialist nurses' influence, and (2) enhancing specialist nurses' motivation. Specialist nurses are important human resources able to assume responsibility for process improvement in nursing care. Effective ways to enhance specialist nurses' influence and motivation include developing their management and communication skills, and coordinating their workload and relationships with other health care professionals. Process improvement indicators may be useful for evaluating specialist nurses' work. Nurse administrators can contribute to effective implementation of specialist nurses' roles not only by clarifying their roles but also by empowering them to keep up with changing organizational needs.

  6. Modified Dempster-Shafer approach using an expected utility interval decision rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheaito, Ali; Lecours, Michael; Bosse, Eloi

    1999-03-01

    The combination operation of the conventional Dempster- Shafer algorithm has a tendency to increase exponentially the number of propositions involved in bodies of evidence by creating new ones. The aim of this paper is to explore a 'modified Dempster-Shafer' approach of fusing identity declarations emanating form different sources which include a number of radars, IFF and ESM systems in order to limit the explosion of the number of propositions. We use a non-ad hoc decision rule based on the expected utility interval to select the most probable object in a comprehensive Platform Data Base containing all the possible identity values that a potential target may take. We study the effect of the redistribution of the confidence levels of the eliminated propositions which otherwise overload the real-time data fusion system; these eliminated confidence levels can in particular be assigned to ignorance, or uniformly added to the remaining propositions and to ignorance. A scenario has been selected to demonstrate the performance of our modified Dempster-Shafer method of evidential reasoning.

  7. Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

    2009-01-01

    In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

  8. Sex differences in subjective distress to unfaithfulness: testing competing evolutionary and violation of infidelity expectations hypotheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Robert Ervin; Lipinski, Ryan E; Meteer, John D; Houska, Jeremy Ashton

    2008-08-01

    According to an evolutionary psychology perspective, men's and women's processing of threats to their sex-linked mate selection strategies cause sex differences in infidelity distress. An alternative account assumes that the distress results from men's and women's processing of expectation violations regarding the content of an unfaithful partner's actions with a rival. Logistic regressions supported the conclusion that the participant's sex-but not the processing of expectation violations-was the best predictor of the most distressing infidelity presented in forced-choice, mutually exclusive, and combined formats. Our results also indicated that the sex differences in infidelity distress were neither limited to using data from a forced-choice response format nor caused by the distinct inferences that men and women draw about the relation between love and sex.

  9. Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality: results of a 10‑year panel study among older workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Solinge, H.; Henkens, K.

    2017-01-01

    This research examined the judgemental process underlying subjective life expectancy (SLE) and the predictive value of SLE on actual mortality in older adults in the Netherlands. We integrated theoretical insights from life satisfaction research with existing models of SLE. Our model differentiates

  10. Question order sensitivity of subjective well-being measures: focus on life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy in survey instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; McClain, Colleen; Webster, Noah; Han, Saram

    2016-10-01

    This study examines the effect of question context created by order in questionnaires on three subjective well-being measures: life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy. We conducted two Web survey experiments. The first experiment (n = 648) altered the order of life satisfaction and self-rated health: (1) life satisfaction asked immediately after self-rated health; (2) self-rated health immediately after life satisfaction; and (3) two items placed apart. We examined their correlation coefficient by experimental condition and further examined its interaction with objective health. The second experiment (n = 479) asked life expectancy before and after parental mortality questions. Responses to life expectancy were compared by order using ANOVA, and we examined interaction with parental mortality status using ANCOVA. Additionally, response time and probes were examined. Correlation coefficients between self-rated health and life satisfaction differed significantly by order: 0.313 (life satisfaction first), 0.508 (apart), and 0.643 (self-rated health first). Differences were larger among respondents with chronic conditions. Response times were the shortest when self-rated health was asked first. When life expectancy asked after parental mortality questions, respondents reported considering parents more for answering life expectancy; and respondents with deceased parents reported significantly lower expectancy, but not those whose parents were alive. Question context effects exist. Findings suggest placing life satisfaction and self-rated health apart to avoid artificial attenuation or inflation in their association. Asking about parental mortality prior to life expectancy appears advantageous as this leads respondents to consider parental longevity more, an important factor for true longevity.

  11. Happier countries, longer lives: an ecological study on the relationship between subjective sense of well-being and life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Grahame F; Soliman, Elsayed Z

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between sense of well-being and longevity is not well-established across populations of varying levels of socioeconomic status. We sought to examine the relationship between happiness, or subjective sense of well-being and life expectancy using data from 151 countries. This analysis is based on the 2012 Happy Planet Index project conducted by the Center of Well-Being of the New Economics Foundation, based in the United Kingdom. Well-being data for each country were taken from responses to the 'Ladder of Life' question in the 2012 Gallup World Poll in which participants were asked to rate their quality of life on a scale from 1 (worst possible life) to 10 (best possible life). Life expectancy and gross domestic product data were taken from the 2011 United Nations records. Ecological footprint data were taken from Global Footprint Network records. Subjective sense of well-being was highly correlated with life expectancy (Pearson correlation r = 0.71, p ecological footprint, and population, each 1 unit of the well-being scale was associated with an increase in life expectancy of 4.0 years (95% confidence interval = 2.7-5.3). In conclusion, better sense of well-being has a strong relationship with life expectancy regardless of economic status or population size, suggesting that governments should foster happiness in order to support long-living populations.

  12. On how access to an insurance market affects investments in safety measures, based on the expected utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Eirik; Asche, Frank

    2011-01-01

    This paper focuses on how access to an insurance market should influence investments in safety measures in accordance with the ruling paradigm for decision-making under uncertainty-the expected utility theory. We show that access to an insurance market in most situations will influence investments in safety measures. For an expected utility maximizer, an overinvestment in safety measures is likely if access to an insurance market is ignored, while an underinvestment in safety measures is likely if insurance is purchased without paying attention to the possibility for reducing the probability and/or consequences of an accidental event by safety measures.

  13. Explanation of asymmetric dynamics of human water consumption in arid regions: prospect theory versus expected utility theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, F.; Lu, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Based on socioeconomic and hydrological data in three arid inland basins and error analysis, the dynamics of human water consumption (HWC) are analyzed to be asymmetric, i.e., HWC increase rapidly in wet periods while maintain or decrease slightly in dry periods. Besides the qualitative analysis that in wet periods great water availability inspires HWC to grow fast but the now expanded economy is managed to sustain by over-exploitation in dry periods, two quantitative models are established and tested, based on expected utility theory (EUT) and prospect theory (PT) respectively. EUT states that humans make decisions based on the total expected utility, namely the sum of utility function multiplied by probability of each result, while PT states that the utility function is defined over gains and losses separately, and probability should be replaced by probability weighting function.

  14. [The subjective quality of life of patients with schizophrenia: influence of psychopathology and patients' expectations. A comparative study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomé, F; Petitjean, F; Germain, C; Demant, J-C

    2004-01-01

    Most studies on the quality of life (Qol) of patients with schizophrenia deal with objective living conditions and how they are perceived by hospitalized patients. The few studies that compare Qol for patients treated in part time services with the Qol of ambulatory patients do not show any significant difference in terms of subjective Qol. Some stu-dies evaluate the influence of psychopathology and needs (or expectations) on the subjective Qol in these groups of patients. Available data indicate that the general well-being is influenced by psychopathology (positive, negative or depressive symptoms) and unmet needs in ambulatory patients. They also show that subjective Qol in certain life domains (social relations, family relations, leisure, health, law and security) is influenced by negative symptoms, anxiety and depression in patients treated in part-time services. The aim of this study is to compare the objective and subjective Qol of patients with schizophrenia treated in part time services (day hospital and day care center) to the Qol of out-patients treated on a purely ambulatory basis (out patient clinic). We studied the Qol of 2 groups of 30 patients with schizophrenia (ICD 10 criteria) treated in various centers. The first group was made of ambulatory patients, the second one was constituted of patients treated in a day hospital or a day care center. Patients were matched for age, duration of illness, number of hospitalizations. The instruments used for rating were the following: Clinical Global Impression (CGI), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), Positive And Negative Symptoms Scale (PANSS), Drug Attitude Inventory (DAI-10). The Qol was measured with a french version of the Lancashire Quality Of Life Profile (LQOLP) (Salomé, Germain, Petitjean, Demant and Boyer, 2000). This instrument measures the objective Qol as well as the subjective Qol. It does possess satisfying psychometric properties and offers the possibility to establish Qol profiles. All

  15. Substrate utilization and thermogenic responses to beta-adrenergic stimulation in obese subjects with NIDDM.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blaak, E.E.; Saris, W.H.M.; Wolffenbuttel, B.H.R.

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study intended to investigate disturbances in beta-adrenergically-mediated substrate utilization and thermogenesis in obese subjects with mild non insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). DESIGN: Following a baseline period of 30 min, the beta-agonist isoproterenol (ISO) was

  16. Substrate utilization and thermogenic responses to beta-adrenergic stimulation in obese subjects with NIDDM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blaak, E E; Saris, W H; Wolffenbuttel, B H

    OBJECTIVE: This study intended to investigate disturbances in beta-adrenergically-mediated substrate utilization and thermogenesis in obese subjects with mild non insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). DESIGN: Following a baseline period of 30 min, the beta-agonist isoproterenol (ISO) was

  17. Expected utility versus expected regret theory versions of decision curve analysis do generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hozo, Iztok; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2018-02-01

    Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method for evaluating diagnostic tests and predictive models. It was developed based on expected utility theory (EUT) and has been reformulated using expected regret theory (ERG). Under certain circumstances, these 2 formulations yield different results. Here we describe these situations and explain the variation. We compare the derivations of the EUT- and ERG-based formulations of DCA for a typical medical decision problem: "treat none," "treat all," or "use model" to guide treatment. We illustrate the differences between the 2 formulations when applied to the following clinical question: at which probability of death we should refer a terminally ill patient to hospice? Both DCA formulations yielded identical but mirrored results when treatment effects are ignored; they generated significantly different results otherwise. Treatment effect has a significant effect on the results derived by EUT DCA and less so on ERG DCA. The elicitation of specific values for disutilities affected the results even more significantly in the context of EUT DCA, whereas no such elicitation was required within the ERG framework. EUT and ERG DCA generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account. The magnitude of the difference depends on the effect of treatment and the disutilities associated with disease and treatment effects. This is important to realize as the current practice guidelines are uniformly based on EUT; the same recommendations can significantly differ if they are derived based on ERG framework. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Subjective health complaints and self-rated health: are expectancies more important than socioeconomic status and workload?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

    2014-06-01

    The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative effect of SES (as measured by level of education), physical workload, and response outcome expectancies on subjective health complaints (SHC) and self-rated health, and if response outcome expectancies mediate the effects of education and physical workload on SHC and self-rated health. A survey was carried out among 1,746 Norwegian municipal employees (mean age 44.2, 81 % females). Structural Equation Models with SHC and self-rated health as outcomes were conducted. Education, physical workload, and response outcome expectancies, were the independent 28 variables in the model. Helplessness/hopelessness had a stronger direct effect on self-rated health and SHC than education and physical workload, for both men and women. Helplessness/hopelessness fully mediated the effect of physical workload on SHC for men (0.121), and mediated 30 % of a total effect of 0.247 for women. For women, education had a small but significant indirect effect through helplessness/hopelessness on self-rated health (0.040) and SHC (-0.040), but no direct effects were found. For men, there was no effect of education on SHC, and only a direct effect on self-rated health (0.134). The results indicated that helplessness/hopelessness is more important for SHC and health than well-established measures on SES such as years of education and perceived physical workload in this sample. Helplessness/hopelessness seems to function as a mechanism between physical workload and health.

  19. Raw material utilization in slaughterhouses – optimizing expected profit using mixed-integer programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Toke Koldborg; Kjærsgaard, Niels Christian

    Slaughterhouses are major players in the pork supply chain, and supply and demand must be matched in order to generate the highest profit. In particular, carcasses must be sorted in order to produce the “right” final products from the “right” carcasses. We develop a mixed-integer programming (MIP) ...... at slaughterhouses. Finally, we comment on the expected effect of variations in the raw material supply and the demand as well as future research concerning joint modelling of supply chain aspects.......Slaughterhouses are major players in the pork supply chain, and supply and demand must be matched in order to generate the highest profit. In particular, carcasses must be sorted in order to produce the “right” final products from the “right” carcasses. We develop a mixed-integer programming (MIP...

  20. Expected Utility and Entropy-Based Decision-Making Model for Large Consumers in the Smart Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingtuan Gao

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the smart grid, large consumers can procure electricity energy from various power sources to meet their load demands. To maximize its profit, each large consumer needs to decide their energy procurement strategy under risks such as price fluctuations from the spot market and power quality issues. In this paper, an electric energy procurement decision-making model is studied for large consumers who can obtain their electric energy from the spot market, generation companies under bilateral contracts, the options market and self-production facilities in the smart grid. Considering the effect of unqualified electric energy, the profit model of large consumers is formulated. In order to measure the risks from the price fluctuations and power quality, the expected utility and entropy is employed. Consequently, the expected utility and entropy decision-making model is presented, which helps large consumers to minimize their expected profit of electricity procurement while properly limiting the volatility of this cost. Finally, a case study verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.

  1. Neural Mechanisms of the Transformation from Objective Value to Subjective Utility: Converting from Count to Worth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A.

    2016-01-01

    When deciding, we aim to choose the “best” possible outcome. This is not just selection of the option that is the most numerous or physically largest, as options are translated from objective value (count) to subjective value (worth or utility). We localized the neural instantiation of the value-to-utility transformation to the dorsal anterior midcingulate cortex (daMCC), with independent replication. The daMCC encodes the context-specific information necessary to convert from count to worth. This encoding is not simply a representation of utility or preference, but the interaction of the two. Specifically, the relationship of brain activation to value is dependent on individual preference, with both positive and negative slopes across the population depending on whether each individual's preference results in enhancement or diminishment of the valuation. For a given value, across participants, enhanced daMCC activation corresponds to diminished subjective valuation, deactivation to enhanced subjective valuation, and non-modulated activation with non-modulated subjective valuation. Further, functional connectivity analyses identified brain regions (positive connectivity with the inferior frontal gyrus and negative connectivity with the nucleus accumbens) through which contextual information may be integrated into the daMCC and allow for outputs to modulate valuation signals. All analyses were replicated through an independent within-study replication, with initial testing in the gains domain and replication in the intermixed and mirrored losses trials. We also present and discuss an ancillary finding: we were unable to identify parametric value signals for losses through whole-brain analyses, and ROI analyses of the vmPFC presented non-modulation across loss value levels. These results identify the neural locus of the value-to-utility transformation, and provide a specific computational function for the daMCC in the production of subjective valuation through

  2. Encouragement of Enzyme Reaction Utilizing Heat Generation from Ferromagnetic Particles Subjected to an AC Magnetic Field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Masashi; Aki, Atsushi; Mizuki, Toru; Maekawa, Toru; Usami, Ron; Morimoto, Hisao

    2015-01-01

    We propose a method of activating an enzyme utilizing heat generation from ferromagnetic particles under an ac magnetic field. We immobilize α-amylase on the surface of ferromagnetic particles and analyze its activity. We find that when α-amylase/ferromagnetic particle hybrids, that is, ferromagnetic particles, on which α-amylase molecules are immobilized, are subjected to an ac magnetic field, the particles generate heat and as a result, α-amylase on the particles is heated up and activated. We next prepare a solution, in which α-amylase/ferromagnetic particle hybrids and free, nonimmobilized chitinase are dispersed, and analyze their activities. We find that when the solution is subjected to an ac magnetic field, the activity of α-amylase immobilized on the particles increases, whereas that of free chitinase hardly changes; in other words, only α-amylase immobilized on the particles is selectively activated due to heat generation from the particles.

  3. Encouragement of Enzyme Reaction Utilizing Heat Generation from Ferromagnetic Particles Subjected to an AC Magnetic Field.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masashi Suzuki

    Full Text Available We propose a method of activating an enzyme utilizing heat generation from ferromagnetic particles under an ac magnetic field. We immobilize α-amylase on the surface of ferromagnetic particles and analyze its activity. We find that when α-amylase/ferromagnetic particle hybrids, that is, ferromagnetic particles, on which α-amylase molecules are immobilized, are subjected to an ac magnetic field, the particles generate heat and as a result, α-amylase on the particles is heated up and activated. We next prepare a solution, in which α-amylase/ferromagnetic particle hybrids and free, nonimmobilized chitinase are dispersed, and analyze their activities. We find that when the solution is subjected to an ac magnetic field, the activity of α-amylase immobilized on the particles increases, whereas that of free chitinase hardly changes; in other words, only α-amylase immobilized on the particles is selectively activated due to heat generation from the particles.

  4. Methodological Aspects of Subjective Life Expectancy: Effects of Culture-Specific Reporting Heterogeneity Among Older Adults in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; Smith, Jacqui

    2016-05-01

    Subjective life expectancy (SLE) has been suggested as a predictor of mortality and mortality-related behaviors. Although critical for culturally diverse societies, these findings do not consider cross-cultural methodological comparability. Culture-specific reporting heterogeneity is a well-known phenomenon introducing biases, and research on this issue with SLE is not established. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined reporting heterogeneity in SLE focusing on item nonresponse, focal points, and reports over time for five ethnic-cultural groups: non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, non-Hispanic other races, English-interviewed Hispanics, and Spanish-interviewed Hispanics. On item nonresponse, Spanish-interviewed Hispanics said, "I don't know," to SLE significantly more than any other groups. Nearly half of the respondents chose 0, 50, or 100, making them focal points. However, the focal points differed: 50 for Whites, 100 for Blacks, and 0 for Spanish-interviewed Hispanics. The relationship of SLE measured at two time points was higher for Whites than minorities. Moreover, those who said "I don't know" to SLE showed higher subsequent mortality than those who gave an answer. SLE was not a significant mortality predictor for Hispanics. Overall, SLE is not free from culture-specific reporting heterogeneity. This warrants further research about its culture-relevant measurement mechanisms. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Regression analysis utilizing subjective evaluation of emotional experience in PET studies on emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalto, Sargo; Wallius, Esa; Näätänen, Petri; Hiltunen, Jaana; Metsähonkala, Liisa; Sipilä, Hannu; Karlsson, Hasse

    2005-09-01

    A methodological study on subject-specific regression analysis (SSRA) exploring the correlation between the neural response and the subjective evaluation of emotional experience in eleven healthy females is presented. The target emotions, i.e., amusement and sadness, were induced using validated film clips, regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) was measured using positron emission tomography (PET), and the subjective intensity of the emotional experience during the PET scanning was measured using a category ratio (CR-10) scale. Reliability analysis of the rating data indicated that the subjects rated the intensity of their emotional experience fairly consistently on the CR-10 scale (Cronbach alphas 0.70-0.97). A two-phase random-effects analysis was performed to ensure the generalizability and inter-study comparability of the SSRA results. Random-effects SSRAs using Statistical non-Parametric Mapping 99 (SnPM99) showed that rCBF correlated with the self-rated intensity of the emotional experience mainly in the brain regions that were identified in the random-effects subtraction analyses using the same imaging data. Our results give preliminary evidence of a linear association between the neural responses related to amusement and sadness and the self-evaluated intensity of the emotional experience in several regions involved in the emotional response. SSRA utilizing subjective evaluation of emotional experience turned out a feasible and promising method of analysis. It allows versatile exploration of the neurobiology of emotions and the neural correlates of actual and individual emotional experience. Thus, SSRA might be able to catch the idiosyncratic aspects of the emotional response better than traditional subtraction analysis.

  6. Subjectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Vega Encabo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I claim that subjectivity is a way of being that is constituted through a set of practices in which the self is subject to the dangers of fictionalizing and plotting her life and self-image. I examine some ways of becoming subject through narratives and through theatrical performance before others. Through these practices, a real and active subjectivity is revealed, capable of self-knowledge and self-transformation. 

  7. Expectation versus Reality: The Impact of Utility on Emotional Outcomes after Returning Individualized Genetic Research Results in Pediatric Rare Disease Research, a Qualitative Interview Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacioppo, Cara N; Chandler, Ariel E; Towne, Meghan C; Beggs, Alan H; Holm, Ingrid A

    2016-01-01

    Much information on parental perspectives on the return of individual research results (IRR) in pediatric genomic research is based on hypothetical rather than actual IRR. Our aim was to understand how the expected utility to parents who received IRR on their child from a genetic research study compared to the actual utility of the IRR received. We conducted individual telephone interviews with parents who received IRR on their child through participation in the Manton Center for Orphan Disease Research Gene Discovery Core (GDC) at Boston Children's Hospital (BCH). Five themes emerged around the utility that parents expected and actually received from IRR: predictability, management, family planning, finding answers, and helping science and/or families. Parents expressing negative or mixed emotions after IRR return were those who did not receive the utility they expected from the IRR. Conversely, parents who expressed positive emotions were those who received as much or greater utility than expected. Discrepancies between expected and actual utility of IRR affect the experiences of parents and families enrolled in genetic research studies. An informed consent process that fosters realistic expectations between researchers and participants may help to minimize any negative impact on parents and families.

  8. Risk aversion and uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis: the expected-utility, moment-generating function approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbasha, Elamin H

    2005-05-01

    The availability of patient-level data from clinical trials has spurred a lot of interest in developing methods for quantifying and presenting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Although the majority has focused on developing methods for using sample data to estimate a confidence interval for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), a small strand of the literature has emphasized the importance of incorporating risk preferences and the trade-off between the mean and the variance of returns to investment in health and medicine (mean-variance analysis). This paper shows how the exponential utility-moment-generating function approach is a natural extension to this branch of the literature for modelling choices from healthcare interventions with uncertain costs and effects. The paper assumes an exponential utility function, which implies constant absolute risk aversion, and is based on the fact that the expected value of this function results in a convenient expression that depends only on the moment-generating function of the random variables. The mean-variance approach is shown to be a special case of this more general framework. The paper characterizes the solution to the resource allocation problem using standard optimization techniques and derives the summary measure researchers need to estimate for each programme, when the assumption of risk neutrality does not hold, and compares it to the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The importance of choosing the correct distribution of costs and effects and the issues related to estimation of the parameters of the distribution are also discussed. An empirical example to illustrate the methods and concepts is provided. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

  9. Subjective Health Complaints and Self-Rated Health: Are Expectancies More Important Than Socioeconomic Status and Workload?

    OpenAIRE

    Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R.; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

    2013-01-01

    Background The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. Purpose The purpose of this study...

  10. The Influence of Time Attitudes on Alcohol-Related Attitudes, Behaviors and Subjective Life Expectancy in Early Adolescence: A Longitudinal Examination Using Mover-Stayer Latent Transition Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Kevin Eugene; Morgan, Grant; Worrell, Frank C.; Sumnall, Harry; McKay, Michael Thomas

    2018-01-01

    The goal of the present study is to examine the stability of time attitudes profiles across a one-year period as well as the association between time attitudes profiles and several variables. These variables include attitudes towards alcohol, context of alcohol use, consumption of a full drink, and subjective life expectancy. We assessed the…

  11. Relative Standing and Subjective Well-Being in South Africa: The Role of Perceptions, Expectations and Income Mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posel, Dorrit Ruth; Casale, Daniela Maria

    2011-01-01

    Most studies that explore the impact of relative standing on subjective well-being use objective measures of the individual's relative position, such as the mean income of the reference group or the individual's ranking in the relevant income distribution. In this paper, using a new household survey from South Africa, we are able to derive…

  12. 17 CFR 250.27 - Classification of accounts prescribed for utility companies not already subject thereto.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... any company whose public utility activities are so limited that the application to it of such system of accounts is clearly inappropriate. A company claiming that its activities are thus limited, shall... thereof, which is a public utility company and which is not required by either the Federal Energy...

  13. Selecting a cutoff point for a developmental screening test based on overall diagnostic indices and total expected utilities of professional preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Hua-Fang; Cheng, Ling-Yee; Hsieh, Wu-Shiun; Yang, Ming-Chin

    2010-03-01

    A cutoff point in a test with sounded validity and professional preferences can help to make an accurate clinical decision. This study aimed to determine a cutoff point between two strategies for a developmental screening checklist (referred to as Taipei II). Cutoff point A was set as one or more item failed and cutoff point B was set as two or more items failed or one or more marked item failed. This study was based on the total expected utilities of professional preferences and overall diagnostic indices. A self-administered questionnaire was developed to collect the estimated utility from professionals involved in early childhood interventions (n = 81) regarding four screening outcomes (probabilities of true positive, false positive, true negative, or false negative) and costs. The total expected utilities were calculated from the probabilities of four screening outcomes and utility values. The diagnostic odds ratio was higher for strategy B (695 and 209, respectively) than that of strategy A (184 and 150, respectively) when using the Taipei II on children under 3 years of age and age 3 and over. Strategy B also had a higher median total expected utilities score than strategy A (0.78 vs. 0.72 for children or = 3). If only one cutoff point can be chosen, the authors suggest that clinicians should choose cutoff point B when using the Taipei II for screening. However, two cutoff points of Taipei II, a combination of strategy A and B, can also be used clinically. 2010 Formosan Medical Association & Elsevier. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Discussing Landscape Compositional Scenarios Generated with Maximization of Non-Expected Utility Decision Models Based on Weighted Entropies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Pinto Casquilho

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The search for hypothetical optimal solutions of landscape composition is a major issue in landscape planning and it can be outlined in a two-dimensional decision space involving economic value and landscape diversity, the latter being considered as a potential safeguard to the provision of services and externalities not accounted in the economic value. In this paper, we use decision models with different utility valuations combined with weighted entropies respectively incorporating rarity factors associated to Gini-Simpson and Shannon measures. A small example of this framework is provided and discussed for landscape compositional scenarios in the region of Nisa, Portugal. The optimal solutions relative to the different cases considered are assessed in the two-dimensional decision space using a benchmark indicator. The results indicate that the likely best combination is achieved by the solution using Shannon weighted entropy and a square root utility function, corresponding to a risk-averse behavior associated to the precautionary principle linked to safeguarding landscape diversity, anchoring for ecosystem services provision and other externalities. Further developments are suggested, mainly those relative to the hypothesis that the decision models here outlined could be used to revisit the stability-complexity debate in the field of ecological studies.

  15. Portability, Salary and Asset Price Risk: A Continuous-Time Expected Utility Comparison of DB and DC Pension Plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An Chen

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares two different types of private retirement plans from the perspective of a representative beneficiary: a defined benefit (DB and a defined contribution (DC plan. While salary risk is the main common risk factor in DB and DC pension plans, one of the key differences is that DB plans carry portability risks, whereas DC plans bear asset price risk. We model these tradeoffs explicitly in this paper and compare these two plans in a utility-based framework. Our numerical analysis focuses on answering the question of when the beneficiary is indifferent between the DB and DC plan. Most of our results confirm the findings in the existing literature, among which, e.g., portability losses considerably reduce the relative attractiveness of the DB plan. However, we also find that the attractiveness of the DB plan can decrease in the level of risk aversion, which is inconsistent with the existing literature.

  16. Managing Expectations: Results from Case Studies of US Water Utilities on Preparing for, Coping with, and Adapting to Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beller-Simms, N.; Metchis, K.

    2014-12-01

    Water utilities, reeling from increased impacts of successive extreme events such as floods, droughts, and derechos, are taking a more proactive role in preparing for future incursions. A recent study by Federal and water foundation investigators, reveals how six US water utilities and their regions prepared for, responded to, and coped with recent extreme weather and climate events and the lessons they are using to plan future adaptation and resilience activities. Two case studies will be highlighted. (1) Sonoma County, CA, has had alternating floods and severe droughts. In 2009, this area, home to competing water users, namely, agricultural crops, wineries, tourism, and fisheries faced a three-year drought, accompanied at the end by intense frosts. Competing uses of water threatened the grape harvest, endangered the fish industry and resulted in a series of regulations, and court cases. Five years later, new efforts by partners in the entire watershed have identified mutual opportunities for increased basin sustainability in the face of a changing climate. (2) Washington DC had a derecho in late June 2012, which curtailed water, communications, and power delivery during a record heat spell that impacted hundreds of thousands of residents and lasted over the height of the tourist-intensive July 4th holiday. Lessons from this event were applied three months later in anticipation of an approaching Superstorm Sandy. This study will help other communities in improving their resiliency in the face of future climate extremes. For example, this study revealed that (1) communities are planning with multiple types and occurrences of extreme events which are becoming more severe and frequent and are impacting communities that are expanding into more vulnerable areas and (2) decisions by one sector can not be made in a vacuum and require the scientific, sectoral and citizen communities to work towards sustainable solutions.

  17. Renewable energy burden sharing. REBUS. Requirements and expectations of utilities and consumer organisations in the European energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voogt, M.H.; Uyterlinde, M.A.; Skytte, K.; Leonardi, M.; Whiteley, M.H.

    2001-05-01

    Creation of an internal market for renewable electricity will involve a political negotiation process, similar to previous EU greenhouse gas negotiations. The Energy Ministers in the EU have agreed on an overall target of 21.7% of electricity supply from Renewable Energy Sources (RES-E) and a distribution of targets over the individual Member States. The REBUS project aimed at providing insights in the effects of implementing targets for renewable electricity generation at EU Member State level and the impact of introducing burden sharing systems within the EU, such as a Tradable Green Certificate (TGC) system. Member States can participate in such burden sharing systems to reduce the costs of achieving targets for electricity from renewable sources (RES-E), compared to strictly national implementation measures. The project concentrated on the development of the REBUS model, which quantifies the impact of trade (in green certificates, quotas or targets) and the implementation of different rules to setting targets at individual Member State level. In addition, the project has paid special attention to the participation of stakeholders such as utilities, traders, and consumers of electricity. What is their opinion on the target setting, on the design of a trading system and its practical implementation and monitoring aspects? Utilities and consumer organisations in Denmark, Italy, The Netherlands and the United Kingdom have been asked to comment on these issues. This report is a result of a series of interviews with these stakeholders on their reaction to different burden sharing proposals, and on the socio-economic and financial impacts they foresee. The utilities take a critical view of their position in the renewable energy market and possible future international trading scheme. The main conclusions from the interviews are: Generally, target setting and burden sharing are regarded political questions, on which governments should decide; Stakeholders emphasise

  18. In search of the comfortable indoor environment: A comparison of the utility of objective and subjective indicators of indoor comfort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fransson, Niklas; Skoog, Jennie [Building Services Engineering, Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg (Sweden); Vaestfjaell, Daniel [Department of Psychology, Goeteborg University (Sweden)

    2007-05-15

    Today, many procedures for assessing the indoor environment rely on both subjective and objective indicators (e.g. ANSI/ASHRAE 55-2004; ISO 10551). It is however unclear how these two types of measurements are related to perceived comfort. This article aims at assessing the relative utility of subjective (rating scale measures) and objective indicators of perceived comfort of indoor environments. In a hospital setting, physical environmental variables (e.g. temperature, relative humidity and noise level) were simultaneously measured as respondents (both patients and staff) rated their perception of the indoor environment. Regression analyses indicated that the subjective sensory ratings were significantly better than objective indicators at predicting overall rated indoor comfort. These results are discussed in relation to existing measurement procedures and standards. (author)

  19. Energy utilization of light and heavy weaned piglets subjected to different dietary energy levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréa Machado Leal Ribeiro

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of dietary metabolisable energy (ME: 3.25, 3.40, 3.55, or 3.70 Mcal kg−1 and weaning weight (WW: light 4.0±0.7 kg, and heavy: 6.3±0.6 kg on productive response and energy utilization of weaned piglets. Sixty-four male piglets were housed in 32 metabolic cages (two animals per cage during the first 14 d postweaning. At day 15, only one animal per cage was kept until day 28. Body composition, energy, and nutrient deposition rates and energy utilization efficiency were measured through a comparative slaughter procedure. Piglets with light WW had a poorer feed conversion ratio and lower weight gain and feed intake when expressed per live weight. Increased ME led to greater daily fat deposition in the empty bodies (defined as weighted mean of the carcass + organs + blood, no intestinal content, while light WW piglets had a reduced protein deposition. Light WW piglets increased heat production with increased ME, but no effect was seen for the heavy WW piglets. By contrast, heavy WW piglets increased empty body gross energy as ME increased, while no influence was observed on light WW piglets. Increasing dietary energy levels did not contribute to the subsequent growth performance of piglets that were lighter at weaning. The lack of interaction between weaning weight and dietary ME content on growth performance does not support the hypothesis that light piglets at weaning do not exhibit compensatory growth because of limitations in energy intake.

  20. Clinical evaluation of iterative reconstruction (ordered-subset expectation maximization) in dynamic positron emission tomography: quantitative effects on kinetic modeling with N-13 ammonia in healthy subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hove, Jens D; Rasmussen, Rune; Freiberg, Jacob

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate the quantitative properties of ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM) on kinetic modeling with nitrogen 13 ammonia compared with filtered backprojection (FBP) in healthy subjects. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cardiac N-13 ammonia positron...... emission tomography (PET) studies from 20 normal volunteers at rest and during dipyridamole stimulation were analyzed. Image data were reconstructed with either FBP or OSEM. FBP- and OSEM-derived input functions and tissue curves were compared together with the myocardial blood flow and spillover values...... and OSEM flow values were observed with a flow underestimation of 45% (rest/dipyridamole) in the septum and of 5% (rest) and 15% (dipyridamole) in the lateral myocardial wall. CONCLUSIONS: OSEM reconstruction of myocardial perfusion images with N-13 ammonia and PET produces high-quality images for visual...

  1. On deciding to have a lobotomy: either lobotomies were justified or decisions under risk should not always seek to maximise expected utility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Rachel

    2014-02-01

    In the 1940s and 1950s thousands of lobotomies were performed on people with mental disorders. These operations were known to be dangerous, but thought to offer great hope. Nowadays, the lobotomies of the 1940s and 1950s are widely condemned. The consensus is that the practitioners who employed them were, at best, misguided enthusiasts, or, at worst, evil. In this paper I employ standard decision theory to understand and assess shifts in the evaluation of lobotomy. Textbooks of medical decision making generally recommend that decisions under risk are made so as to maximise expected utility (MEU) I show that using this procedure suggests that the 1940s and 1950s practice of psychosurgery was justifiable. In making sense of this finding we have a choice: Either we can accept that psychosurgery was justified, in which case condemnation of the lobotomists is misplaced. Or, we can conclude that the use of formal decision procedures, such as MEU, is problematic.

  2. Why high-risk, non-expected-utility-maximising gambles can be rational and beneficial: the case of HIV cure studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchak, Lara

    2017-02-01

    Some early phase clinical studies of candidate HIV cure and remission interventions appear to have adverse medical risk-benefit ratios for participants. Why, then, do people participate? And is it ethically permissible to allow them to participate? Recent work in decision theory sheds light on both of these questions, by casting doubt on the idea that rational individuals prefer choices that maximise expected utility, and therefore by casting doubt on the idea that researchers have an ethical obligation not to enrol participants in studies with high risk-benefit ratios. This work supports the view that researchers should instead defer to the considered preferences of the participants themselves. This essay briefly explains this recent work, and then explores its application to these two questions in more detail. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  3. Autonomy Support and Intrinsic Goal Progress Expectancy and Its Links to Longitudinal Study Effort and Subjective Wellbeing: The Differential Mediating Effect of Intrinsic and Identified Regulations and the Moderator Effects of Effort and Intrinsic Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waaler, Rune; Halvari, Halgeir; Skjesol, Knut; Bagoien, Tor Egil

    2013-01-01

    The authors tested a self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) process model of subjective wellbeing among students at Norwegian Folk High Schools. In this model the authors hypothesized that students' intrinsic goal progress expectancy in the chosen study activity and perceived autonomy support from teachers would be positively associated…

  4. The impact of diagnosis subject to reimbursement on life expectancy, the ability to work, and the quality of life: The experts’ assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Araja D.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ex-post retrospective analysis of the health care reform in Latvia has been performed by several authors; therefore in writing this paper, the author also considered it essential to try and predict its future prospects, specifically, to carry out an ex-ante analysis of reimbursement arrangements for medicines and medical devices in outpatient treatment (“reimbursement arrangements”. An ex-antepolicy impact analysis takes place at the beginning of the policy development process when policy planners and experts try to project, by means of various quantitative and qualitative methods, the various kinds of consequences that the society will face as a result of implementation of the policy. Taking into account the circumstances of limited state budget resources for the medicines reimbursement arrangements in Latvia, the aim of this research is to evaluate by the experts’ method the impact of the reimbursed diseases on the life expectancy, the ability to work, and the quality of life, to identify the priorities. According to the experts’ judgments the group of diagnoses “Neoplasms” gives the greatest common impact on the life expectancy, the ability to work, and quality of life, followed by the “Diseases of the circulatory system” and “Diseases of the blood and blood forming organs and certain disorders involving the immune mechanisms”.

  5. Expecting the unexpected

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Heath, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural......) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire...

  6. Pareto utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R.; Muris, C.H.M.

    2013-01-01

    In searching for an appropriate utility function in the expected utility framework, we formulate four properties that we want the utility function to satisfy. We conduct a search for such a function, and we identify Pareto utility as a function satisfying all four desired properties. Pareto utility

  7. Disaster and subsequent health care utilization: a longitudinal study among victims, their family members, and control subjects.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dorn, T.; Yzermans, C.J.; Kerssens, J.J.; Spreeuwenberg, P.M.M.; Zee, J. van der

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The impact of disasters on primary healthcare utilization is largely unknown. Moreover, it is often overlooked how disaster affects those closest to the primary victims, their family members. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine the long-term effects of a catastrophic

  8. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    , they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical...... cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

  9. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

  10. Developmental changes and gender effects on motivational constructs based on the expectancy-value model in Czech and United States students regarding learning of science, mathematics, and other subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Eun-Mi

    This study employed American and Czech student samples to investigate the motivational constructs used in Eccles and Wigfield's (1983) expectancy-value model. To predict achievement behavior, the model specifies relationships among expectancy for-success and task value, task-specific self-concept, perception of task-difficulty, perceptions of social environment, and interpretations and attributions for past events in relation to the social world. Czech and American students (n = 1,145) in grades 4--12 were the participants in this study. The causal relationships among the constructs were tested to investigate structural similarities and differences in the models for both countries. This study also explored developmental changes, gender, and national differences in the students' motivational beliefs for these motivational constructs: Expectancy for Success, Intrinsic Interest Value, Task-specific Self-concept, Perception of Task-difficulty, and Perceived Vocational Gender Dominance for science, mathematics, and other school subjects. The findings indicated that, for both countries, with respect to changes over grade level, compared to the younger students, the older students showed lower motivational beliefs for most subject areas except reading. However, the Czech students in grades 6--8 showed more positive motivational beliefs in life science and social studies than did the Czech students in other grade levels. In comparing genders, the male students exhibited more positive motivational beliefs in physical science than did the female students, and female students showed more positive motivational beliefs in reading than did the male students. For life science, the Czech female students rated Intrinsic Interest Value and Task-specific Self-concept higher than did their peer male students. The American students' motivational beliefs in reading were more positive than were Czech students', and the Czech students held more positive motivational beliefs in life

  11. Great Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickens, Charles

    2005-01-01

    One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

  12. Experiments expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Gorini, B; Meschi, E

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the expectations and the constraints of the experiments relatively to the commissioning procedure and the running conditions for the 2015 data taking period. The views about the various beam parameters for the p-p period, like beam energy, maximum pileup, bunch spacing and luminosity limitation in IP2 and IP8, are discussed. The goals and the constraints of the 2015 physics program are also presented, including the heavy ions period as well as the special...

  13. Examining the Feasibility and Utility of Estimating Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information (via a Nonparametric Approach) as Part of the Reimbursement Decision-Making Process in Ireland: Application to Drugs for Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCullagh, Laura; Schmitz, Susanne; Barry, Michael; Walsh, Cathal

    2017-11-01

    In Ireland, all new drugs for which reimbursement by the healthcare payer is sought undergo a health technology assessment by the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics. The National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics estimate expected value of perfect information but not partial expected value of perfect information (owing to computational expense associated with typical methodologies). The objective of this study was to examine the feasibility and utility of estimating partial expected value of perfect information via a computationally efficient, non-parametric regression approach. This was a retrospective analysis of evaluations on drugs for cancer that had been submitted to the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics (January 2010 to December 2014 inclusive). Drugs were excluded if cost effective at the submitted price. Drugs were excluded if concerns existed regarding the validity of the applicants' submission or if cost-effectiveness model functionality did not allow required modifications to be made. For each included drug (n = 14), value of information was estimated at the final reimbursement price, at a threshold equivalent to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at that price. The expected value of perfect information was estimated from probabilistic analysis. Partial expected value of perfect information was estimated via a non-parametric approach. Input parameters with a population value at least €1 million were identified as potential targets for research. All partial estimates were determined within minutes. Thirty parameters (across nine models) each had a value of at least €1 million. These were categorised. Collectively, survival analysis parameters were valued at €19.32 million, health state utility parameters at €15.81 million and parameters associated with the cost of treating adverse effects at €6.64 million. Those associated with drug acquisition costs and with the cost of care were valued at €6.51 million and €5.71

  14. Community expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraemer, L.

    2004-01-01

    Historically, the relationship between the nuclear generator and the local community has been one of stability and co-operation. However in more recent times (2000-2003) the nuclear landscape has had several major issues that directly effect the local nuclear host communities. - The associations mandate is to be supportive of the nuclear industry through ongoing dialogue, mutual cooperation and education, - To strengthen community representation with the nuclear industry and politically through networking with other nuclear host communities. As a result of these issues, the Mayors of a number of communities started having informal meetings to discuss the issues at hand and how they effect their constituents. These meetings led to the official formation of the CANHC with representation from: In Canada it is almost impossible to discuss decommissioning and dismantling of Nuclear Facilities without also discussing Nuclear Waste disposal for reasons that I will soon make clear. Also I would like to briefly touch on how and why expectation of communities may differ by geography and circumstance. (author)

  15. Gains and losses in nonadditive expected utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rakesh, S.; Wakker, P.P.; Machina, M.J.; Munier, B.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper provides a simple approach for deriving cumulative prospect theory. The key axiom is a cumulative dominance axiom which requires that a prospect be judged more attractive if in it greater gains are more likely and greater losses are less likely. In the presence of this cumulative

  16. Brain perfusion ratios by 99mTc HMPAO SPECT utilizing a mean value of the visual cortex to the cerebellum ratio derived from normal subjects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez Catasus, C.; Rodriguez, R.; Cisnero, M.; Palmero, R.; Diaz, O.; Aguila, A.

    2002-01-01

    Aim: Previous results shows that the cerebellum (CER) is the best reference to calculate relative indexes of perfusion (IP) by brain SPECT. However, it can not be used on patients with bilateral cerebellar hypoperfusion. In such cases visual cortex (VC) or an average of the whole brain activity is recommended (WB). VC and WB are less reliable than CER, making it difficult to compare SPECT scans that have been normalized with different values. Materials and Methods: To overcome this difficulty, we developed a method to calculate IP utilizing a reference value defined as (VC / ), where is the mean value of the VC/CER ratio derived from a normal database which was assumed to be constant. We called the value VC/ the 'Pseudocerebellum' (PCER). For clinical validation, we first tested statistically the VC/CER ratio on a group of 60 [ 99m Tc]-HMPAO SPECT scans of 20 normal subjects and 40 neurological patients with positive SPECT but without involvement of VC and CER. To demonstrate that IP PCER approx. IP CER , we calculated the mean value of the absolute differences CER - IP PCER vertical bar> on two groups of scans from subjects without involvement of VC and CER: 10 normal subjects (GI); and 40 patients (GII). Finally, using an indirect procedure the method was tested on a third group of SPECT scans of 30 patients with bilateral cerebellar hypoperfusion (G III). Results: The VC/CER ratio was approximately constant with gender and age at a 95% confidence level; CER - IP PCER vertical bar> was 1.22%±0.35 and 1.20%±0.42 for GI and GII, respectively. This is less than the within-subject replicability of the HMPAO SPECT studies; and thus demonstrated by an indirect approach that IP PCER is a valid procedure by which to evaluate relative perfusion on patients with bilateral cerebellar hypoperfusion and quantitatively comparable to using CER as reference region. Conclusion: The VC/CER ratio has very little inter-subject variability in individuals where these regions are not

  17. Identification of BDNF sensitive electrophysiological markers of synaptic activity and their structural correlates in healthy subjects using a genetic approach utilizing the functional BDNF Val66Met polymorphism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fruzsina Soltész

    Full Text Available Increasing evidence suggests that synaptic dysfunction is a core pathophysiological hallmark of neurodegenerative disorders. Brain-derived neurotropic factor (BDNF is key synaptogenic molecule and targeting synaptic repair through modulation of BDNF signalling has been suggested as a potential drug discovery strategy. The development of such "synaptogenic" therapies depend on the availability of BDNF sensitive markers of synaptic function that could be utilized as biomarkers for examining target engagement or drug efficacy in humans. Here we have utilized the BDNF Val66Met genetic polymorphism to examine the effect of the polymorphism and genetic load (i.e. Met allele load on electrophysiological (EEG markers of synaptic activity and their structural (MRI correlates. Sixty healthy adults were prospectively recruited into the three genetic groups (Val/Val, Val/Met, Met/Met. Subjects also underwent fMRI, tDCS/TMS, and cognitive assessments as part of a larger study. Overall, some of the EEG markers of synaptic activity and brain structure measured with MRI were the most sensitive markers of the polymorphism. Met carriers showed decreased oscillatory activity and synchrony in the neural network subserving error-processing, as measured during a flanker task (ERN; and showed increased slow-wave activity during resting. There was no evidence for a Met load effect on the EEG measures and the polymorphism had no effects on MMN and P300. Met carriers also showed reduced grey matter volume in the anterior cingulate and in the (left prefrontal cortex. Furthermore, anterior cingulate grey matter volume, and oscillatory EEG power during the flanker task predicted subsequent behavioural adaptation, indicating a BDNF dependent link between brain structure, function and behaviour associated with error processing and monitoring. These findings suggest that EEG markers such as ERN and resting EEG could be used as BDNF sensitive functional markers in early

  18. Students’ Perception of the Availability and Utilization of Information and Communication Technology (ICT in the Teaching and Learning of Science Subjects in Secondary Schools in Ekiti State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jegede Samuel Akingbade

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The study investigated students’ perception of the availability and utilization of Information and Communication Technology (ICT in the teaching and learning of science subjects in secondary schools in Ekiti State, Nigeria. The population of the study was made up of all secondary school students in public and private secondary schools in Ekiti State, Nigeria. The sample was 400 students selected from both public and private secondary schools in the state using the multi-stage sampling. The only instrument used in collecting relevant data for the study was a questionnaire consisting of two sections A and B. Section A consisted of personal biodata of the respondents, while section B consisted of 22 items which elicited information on the application of ICT in schools for learning science. Four research questions were raised and two hypotheses tested. Data collected were analysed using frequency counts and percentages as well as inferential statistics of t-test. The results showed that apart from the computer, which is available in most schools, the other identified ICT equipment were not available. The findings also showed that there is no significant difference in the availability of ICT facilities in public and private secondary schools, and that students in private schools are more exposed to ICT than their counterparts in public schools.

  19. Expected Term Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

    We construct and study the cross-sectional properties of survey-based bond risk premia and compare them to their traditional statistical counterparts. We document large heterogeneity in skill, identify top forecasters, and learn about the importance of subjective risk premia in long-term bonds...... dynamics. The consensus is not a sufficient statistics of the cross-section of expectations and we propose an alternative real-time aggregate measure of risk premia consistent with Friedmans market selection hypothesis. We then use this measure to evaluate structural models and find support...

  20. Measuring population health in Moldova: health expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Avram

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Health measures are decisive for the development and implementation of population health policies. Monitoring health indicators can lead to improvements in health and decrease in the inequalities among subpopulations. The life expectancy at birth for the Moldovan population did not increase considerably during the last decades, due to the social and economic crisis which led to high mortality and poor health. In Moldova, no aggregated health indicators are utilized for health monitoring. Therefore, the authors calculated health indicators to assess the population health and argue their importance. Mortality and subjective data on self-perceived health and self-rated morbidity from the Household Budget Survey was used for constructing period morbidity-mortality tables. Thus, the authors applied Sullivan’s method to calculate the life expectancy in very good/good/fair health and the life expectancy without chronic morbidity for the period 2006 - 2015. The life expectancies in very good/good/fair health showed a compression of morbidity in the older ages for both sexes, and for rural and urban types of residence. The life expectancies without chronic morbidity for males and for urban dwellers demonstrated an expansion of morbidity. Although the life expectancy is slowly increasing, the trends in population health are contradictory, depending on the applied measures. The health expectancy indicators, based on self-perceived health, depict the actual situation in the population health. These indicators are becoming more essential with the ageing process and can be used for the tailoring of social and health policies and services to the real needs of the population.

  1. Utility procurement policies in the USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lurf, G.; Nikazmerad, N.M.

    1983-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; market history (historical uranium demand and production in the USA); recent long-term contract activity (expected US reactor demand and uranium production; expected US reactor demand and contracted uranium supplies); utility procurement attitudes; impact of inventories on procurement; current regulatory environment (spot-market price vs average long-term contract price); embargo and imports; conclusion. (U.K.)

  2. Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...... subjects and if placement contradicts tracking experiences in middle school. My findings support the hypothesis that adolescents adapt their educational expectations to ability signals sent by schools....

  3. Expectancy-Value Theory of Achievement Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigfield; Eccles

    2000-01-01

    We discuss the expectancy-value theory of motivation, focusing on an expectancy-value model developed and researched by Eccles, Wigfield, and their colleagues. Definitions of crucial constructs in the model, including ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and the components of subjective task values, are provided. These definitions are compared to those of related constructs, including self-efficacy, intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and interest. Research is reviewed dealing with two issues: (1) change in children's and adolescents' ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and subjective values, and (2) relations of children's and adolescents' ability-expectancy beliefs and subjective task values to their performance and choice of activities. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

  4. The Utility of the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test in Differential Diagnosis of Cognitive Disorders in Iranian Psychiatric Patients and Healthy Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razieh Hashemi, MA

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The Wisconsin Test Card Sorting Test (WCST is a neuropsychological test that has been suggested as a more specific test for frontal lobes dysfunctions. This study was designed to determine whether WCST is able to differentiate between Iranian psychiatric patients with cognitive disorders and normal subjects, and whether WCST scores are related to severity of symptoms in depressive and schizophrenic patients.Method: Participants were four groups: schizophrenics with positive symptoms (n=25; schizophrenics with negative symptoms (n=25; major depressives (n=25; and normal subjects (n=25. All subjects were tested individually using WCST. To analyze the data, various descriptive statistics, ANOVA, t-test and multiple regression analysis were used.Results: Regarding the number of categories (P<0.001 and the rate of perseverative errors (P<0.01, according to the results, the normal subjects performed significantly better than patient groups on WCST, although the differences between patient groups were not significant. Our results also showed that greater positive or depressive symptoms were not associated with poorer scores on WCST performance. Only the level of severity of negative symptoms predicted scores on perseverative errors.Conclusion: It is concluded that WCST can differentiate Iranian psychiatric patients with cognitive disorders from normal subjects, but it is not able to clearly differentiate schizophrenic patients with negative symptoms from those with positive symptoms and depressives. Only severity of negative symptoms affects WCST performance

  5. Clinical Utility of Additional Measurement of Total Lung Capacity in Diagnosing Obstructive Lung Disease in Subjects With Restrictive Pattern of Spirometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun; Chang, Boksoon; Kim, Kyunga; Song, Won Jun; Chon, Hae Ri; Kang, Hyung Koo; Kim, Jung Soo; Jeong, Byeong-Ho; Oh, Yeon-Mok; Koh, Won-Jung; Park, Hye Yun

    2016-04-01

    Total lung capacity (TLC), forced expiratory flow between 25 and 75% (FEF25-75%), peak expiratory flow (PEF), or post-bronchodilator volume response is recommended to detect obstructive abnormalities in the lung. The present study was performed to evaluate the usefulness of these pulmonary function test (PFT) parameters to diagnose obstructive lung disease in subjects with a restrictive pattern of spirometry. A retrospective study was conducted in 64 subjects with a restrictive pattern of spirometry (normal FEV1/FVC and low FVC) out of 3,030 patients who underwent all pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry and lung volume measurement between April 2008 and December 2010. After subjects were clinically classified into those with obstructive lung disease, restrictive lung disease, and mixed lung disease, the agreements between the clinical diagnosis and PFT classification according to TLC, FEF(25-75%), PEF, and post-bronchodilator response criteria were compared. Of 64 subjects, 18 (28.1%) were classified with obstructive lung disease, 39 (60.9%) had restrictive lung disease, 1 (1.6%) had mixed lung disease, and 6 (9.4%) had no clinical lung disease. Among the 58 subjects with clinical lung disease, 22 (37.9%), 37 (63.8%), 33 (56.9%), and 3 (5.2%) were classified as having obstructive pattern based on TLC, FEF25-75%, PEF, and post-bronchodilator response criteria, respectively. The kappa coefficients for the agreement between the clinical classification and PFT classification using TLC, FEF25-75%, PEF, and post-bronchodilator response criteria in 58 subjects were 0.59, 0.18, 0.17, and spirometry, when obstructive lung disease is clinically suspected. Copyright © 2016 by Daedalus Enterprises.

  6. Evaluating the utility of subjective effects measures for predicting product sampling, enrollment, and retention in a clinical trial of a smokeless tobacco product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Richard J; Lindgren, Bruce R; Schneller, Liane M; Shields, Peter G; Hatsukami, Dorothy K

    2018-01-01

    Subjective effects of drugs, representing pharmacological and non-pharmacological effects, have been shown to be associated with future use and abuse. This also is the case for tobacco products and so measuring subjective effects, such as liking, satisfaction, and aversion, is crucial to gaining an understanding of consumer perception leading to increased use. This study examined the predictive validity of subjective drug and product effects with respect to product adoption. Smokers (N=151) were enrolled in Minneapolis, Columbus, and Buffalo. Participants were shown two snus products (Camel Snus Winterchill and Robust), asked to try each of the products for 5min and to rate them using the Product Evaluation Scale (PES) and Drug Effects Questionnaire (DEQ). This was followed by a one-week use period of their preferred product and those who used at least 1 unit of Camel Snus per day (or at least 7 pouches total) were eligible to enroll in the Clinical Trial Phase assessing the impact of complete switching or dual use with smoking. Key outcomes for this study were product evaluation, extent of product use, and Clinical Trial enrollment. We noted no relationships between participant characteristics such as gender, age, prior smokeless use, baseline cigarettes per day (CPD), or PES and DEQ scores with any of these outcome variables. Subjective effects were weak predictors of product use, which totaled approximately 3units of snus per day. Regardless of product, it appears that PES and DEQ ratings were uniformly poor predictors of trial enrollment and retention, though they do predict the amount of snus used during the sampling phase. Findings indicate that while subjective effects predict product preference in the short-term, they did not consistently predict extent of use or enrollment in the trial, suggesting that these initial measures have limited implications for long-term behavior. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Diagnostic utility of magnetic resonance imaging and radiography in juvenile spondyloarthritis: evaluation of the sacroiliac joints in controls and affected subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaremko, Jacob L; Liu, Lei; Winn, Naomi J; Ellsworth, Janet E; Lambert, Robert G W

    2014-05-01

    To compare the utility of radiography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the diagnosis of juvenile-onset spondyloarthritis in pediatric patients presenting with low back and/or sacroiliac (SI) pain of potentially inflammatory etiology. Radiographs and MRI studies of the SI joints in 26 patients with juvenile spondyloarthritis (JSpA) and 35 controls were assessed independently by 2 radiologists, with discrepancies arbitrated by a third. Radiographs and MRI were blinded and read in separate batches in random order. Erosion was common and was the most useful diagnostic feature on radiography [positive likelihood ratio (LR) = 3.5] and was especially diagnostic of SpA on MRI (LR = 6.7). Subchondral sclerosis was common but was the least specific feature for both modalities. Joint space narrowing had some utility on radiography (LR = 2.0) and MRI (LR = 2.7) but was uncommon and had poor reader reliability. Bone marrow edema (LR = 3.1) and subarticular fat infiltration (LR = 4.5), detectable only on MRI, were both useful features. Global diagnostic impression of MRI (LR = 9.4) had very high utility for the diagnosis of JSpA, exceeding radiography (LR = 4.4) because of superior specificity. In addition, global diagnosis of SpA is much more reliably made on MRI (κ = 0.80) compared to radiography (κ = 0.30). Specificity and reliability of MRI of the SI joints are superior to radiography for the diagnosis of juvenile-onset SpA and, where available, MRI should replace radiography as the first line of investigation.

  8. Utility of Neck Circumference for Identifying Metabolic Syndrome by Different Definitions in Chinese Subjects over 50 Years Old: A Community-Based Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuo Lin

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. Whether neck circumference (NC could be used as a valuable tool for identifying metabolic syndrome (MS by different criteria in Chinese is still unclear. Methods. We conducted a cross-sectional survey from October 2010 to January 2011 in Shipai community, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China. A total of 1473 subjects aged over 50 years were investigated. We measured height, weight, NC, waist circumference, blood pressure, blood glucose, and lipids in all subjects. MS was identified by criteria of the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III, Chinese Diabetes Society (CDS, and International Diabetes Federation (IDF. Results. Mean NC was 38.0 ± 2.7 cm in men and 34.2 ± 2.5 cm in women. By using receiver operating characteristic curves, the area under the curve (AUC of NC for identifying MS (IDF was 0.823 in men and 0.777 in women, while for identifying MS (CDS, it was 0.788 in men and 0.762 in women. The AUC of NC for diagnosing MS (ATP III was 0.776 in men and 0.752 in women. The optimal cut points of NC for MS were 38.5 cm by three definitions in men, while those were 34.2 cm, 33.4 cm, and 34.0 cm in women by IDF, ATP III, and CDS definitions, respectively. No significant difference was observed between the AUC of NC and BMI for diagnosing MS by using different criteria (all p>0.05. Conclusions. NC is associated with MS by different definitions in Chinese subjects over 50 years old. It may be a useful tool to identify MS in a community population.

  9. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

    Science.gov (United States)

    HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

  10. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudomiet, Péter; Kézdi, Gábor; Willis, Robert J

    2011-01-01

    This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

  11. Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly...... report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...... to distort reports. We characterize the comparable implications of the general case of a risk averse agent when facing a popular scoring rule over continuous events, and find that these concerns do not apply with anything like the same force. For empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can...

  12. Teacher Expectancy Related to Student Performance in Vocational Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Samuel M.; Pandya, Himanshu S.

    1980-01-01

    This experiment explored the effect of teacher expectations on vocational students' cognitive and psychomotor skills and on attitudes. Although teachers' expectations changed student attitudes toward teachers and subjects, neither expectations nor attitude change had an effect on student achievement. (SK)

  13. Best Practice Life Expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

  14. Determining health expectancies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robine, Jean-Marie

    2003-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jean-Marie Robine 9 1 Increase in Life Expectancy and Concentration of Ages at Death . . . . France Mesle´ and Jacques Vallin 13 2 Compression of Morbidity...

  15. Performance appraisal of expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russkikh G.A.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available this article provides basic concepts for teachers to estimate and reach planned students’ expectations, describes functions and elements of expectations; nature of external and internal estimate, technology to estimate the results, gives recommendations how to create diagnostic assignments.

  16. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations are generated with different degrees of certainty. Given distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations of each context, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm, this certainty can be quantified in terms of Shannon entropy. Because expectations arise from s...

  17. Study on the influence of storage life expectancy of the Valve Regulated Lead-Acid - VRLA battery; Estudo sobre a influencia da estocagem na expectativa de vida util da bateria chumbo-acida regulada por valvula - VRLA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, A. Pinhel [FURNAS Centrais Eletricas S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], Email: pinhel@furnas.com.br; Rosolem, Maria de F.N.C.; Santos, G.R. dos; Frare, P.T.; Arioli, V.T.; Beck, R.F. [Telecomunicacoes do CPqD, Campinas, SP (Brazil)], Emails: mfatima@cpqd.com.br, glauco@cpqd.com.br, pfrare@cpqd.com.br, varioli@cpqd.com.br, raul@cpqd.com; Soares, L.A., Email: luiz.las@gmail.com

    2009-07-01

    When valve regulated lead-acid (VRLA) batteries are acquired and are not placed in operation immediately and remain stored in open circuit, they can loose autonomy and life. In these cases the current practice recommends, that the batteries receive quarterly recharges, which is often unfeasible. Given this scenario, Furnas by the CPqD, decided to verify the real impact of stockpiling in the expectancy of VRLAs battery life to establish the veracity of practice adopted or establish new procedures. The influences of time, the temperature of the local storage and application of charges are evaluated. It was also studied the application of techniques for measuring the internal resistance battery (conductance and impedance) for degradation monitoring and identification of the need for application of charges. As final products, it was developed novel diagnostic techniques that allow more accurate monitoring of the storage process.

  18. Marital Expectations in Strong African American Marriages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaterlaus, J Mitchell; Skogrand, Linda; Chaney, Cassandra; Gahagan, Kassandra

    2017-12-01

    The current exploratory study utilized a family strengths framework to identify marital expectations in 39 strong African American heterosexual marriages. Couples reflected on their marital expectations over their 10 or more years of marriage. Three themes emerged through qualitative analysis and the participants' own words were used in the presentation of the themes. African Americans indicated that there was growth in marital expectations over time, with marital expectations often beginning with unrealistic expectations that grew into more realistic expectations as their marriages progressed. Participants also indicated that core expectations in strong African American marriages included open communication, congruent values, and positive treatment of spouse. Finally, participants explained there is an "I" in marriage as they discussed the importance of autonomy within their marital relationships. Results are discussed in association with existing research and theory. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

  19. Suggestibility and Expectancy in a Counseling Analogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaul, Theodore J.; Parker, Clyde A.

    1971-01-01

    The data indicated that (a) subjectively experienced suggestibility was more closely related to attitude change than was objective suggestibility, and (b) the generalized expectancy treatments were ineffective in influencing different criterion scores. (Author)

  20. Retirement expectations and satisfaction with retirement provisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bresser, Jochem; van Soest, Arthur

    This paper investigates the relationship between subjective expectations regarding the replacement rate of income at retirement and several measures of pension satisfaction. We use panel data on Dutch employees, analyzed with fixed effects models, allowing for correlation between unobserved

  1. Efficient elicitation of utility and probability weighting functions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blavatskyy, Pavlo R.

    -, č. 211 (2004), s. 1-31 ISSN 1424-0459 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : decision theory * rank-dependent expected utility * cumulative prospect theory Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.iew.unizh.ch/wp/iewwp211.pdf

  2. Life expectancy and education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger

    2017-01-01

    , we find that US states with higher mortality rates from cardiovascular disease prior to the 1970s experienced greater increases in adult life expectancy and higher education enrollment. Our estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation higher treatment intensity is associated with an increase...... in adult life expectancy of 0.37 years and 0.07–0.15 more years of higher education....

  3. Expected Classification Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence M. Rudner

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Every time we make a classification based on a test score, we should expect some number..of misclassifications. Some examinees whose true ability is within a score range will have..observed scores outside of that range. A procedure for providing a classification table of..true and expected scores is developed for polytomously scored items under item response..theory and applied to state assessment data. A simplified procedure for estimating the..table entries is also presented.

  4. Sex and life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifarth, Joshua E; McGowan, Cheri L; Milne, Kevin J

    2012-12-01

    A sexual dimorphism in human life expectancy has existed in almost every country for as long as records have been kept. Although human life expectancy has increased each year, females still live longer, on average, than males. Undoubtedly, the reasons for the sex gap in life expectancy are multifaceted, and it has been discussed from both sociological and biological perspectives. However, even if biological factors make up only a small percentage of the determinants of the sex difference in this phenomenon, parity in average life expectancy should not be anticipated. The aim of this review is to highlight biological mechanisms that may underlie the sexual dimorphism in life expectancy. Using PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar, as well as cited and citing reference histories of articles through August 2012, English-language articles were identified, read, and synthesized into categories that could account for biological sex differences in human life expectancy. The examination of biological mechanisms accounting for the female-based advantage in human life expectancy has been an active area of inquiry; however, it is still difficult to prove the relative importance of any 1 factor. Nonetheless, biological differences between the sexes do exist and include differences in genetic and physiological factors such as progressive skewing of X chromosome inactivation, telomere attrition, mitochondrial inheritance, hormonal and cellular responses to stress, immune function, and metabolic substrate handling among others. These factors may account for at least a part of the female advantage in human life expectancy. Despite noted gaps in sex equality, higher body fat percentages and lower physical activity levels globally at all ages, a sex-based gap in life expectancy exists in nearly every country for which data exist. There are several biological mechanisms that may contribute to explaining why females live longer than men on average, but the complexity of the

  5. Anomalous vacuum expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, H.

    1986-01-01

    The anomalous vacuum expectation value is defined as the expectation value of a quantity that vanishes by means of the field equations. Although this value is expected to vanish in quantum systems, regularization in general produces a finite value of this quantity. Calculation of this anomalous vacuum expectation value can be carried out in the general framework of field theory. The result is derived by subtraction of divergences and by zeta-function regularization. Various anomalies are included in these anomalous vacuum expectation values. This method is useful for deriving not only the conformal, chiral, and gravitational anomalies but also the supercurrent anomaly. The supercurrent anomaly is obtained in the case of N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory in four, six, and ten dimensions. The original form of the energy-momentum tensor and the supercurrent have anomalies in their conservation laws. But the modification of these quantities to be equivalent to the original one on-shell causes no anomaly in their conservation laws and gives rise to anomalous traces

  6. Relative utility of a visual analogue scale vs. a six-point Likert scale in the measurement of global subject outcome in patients with low back pain receiving physiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harland, N J; Dawkin, M J; Martin, D

    2015-03-01

    Patients' subjective impression of change is an important construct to measure following physiotherapy, but little evidence exists about the best type of measure to use. To compare the construct validity and utility of two forms of a global subjective outcome scale (GSOS) in patients with back pain: Likert and visual analogue scale (VAS) GSOS. Two samples of patients attending physiotherapy for back pain completed a questionnaire battery at discharge from physiotherapy including either a Likert or VAS GSOS. One hundred and eighty-seven {79 males, mean age 52.1 [standard deviation (SD) 15.5] years} patients completed the Likert GSOS and a separate sample of 144 patients [62 males, mean age 55.7 (SD 15.9) years] completed the VAS GSOS upon discharge from physiotherapy. The two versions of the GSOS were compared using pre- and post-treatment changes in scores using a VAS (pain), Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (18-item version) and catastrophising subscale of the Coping Strategies Questionnaire 24. Both versions of the GSOS showed significant (PPhysiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The expected model of a cadastre in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolanta Ciak

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available A cadastre is a based on a cadastral map official register of land, property and other utilities that constitute subjects of taxation as well as the source of information on cadastral objects. As indicated in the reference books, it constitutes an institution of law, which in the social perception is seen as providing legal order in the scope of establishing the range of laws, of the sense of security resulting from the fact of the entering of the subjects of taxation and the possibility to exert one’s rights under the registration proceedings. However, the current shape of the register does not meet social expectations. The suggested reform of the taxation of property in Poland (cadastre meets numerous obstacles such as a formal and legal, political, financial or social barrier.

  8. Performance expectation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.E.

    1998-09-04

    This document outlines the significant accomplishments of fiscal year 1998 for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team. Opportunities for improvement to better meet some performance expectations have been identified. The PHMC has performed at an excellent level in administration of leadership, planning, and technical direction. The contractor has met and made notable improvement of attaining customer satisfaction in mission execution. This document includes the team`s recommendation that the PHMC TWRS Performance Expectation Plan evaluation rating for fiscal year 1998 be an Excellent.

  9. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    2017-01-01

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economistís model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  10. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economist's model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  11. Expanding subjectivities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundgaard Andersen, Linda; Soldz, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    A major theme in recent psychoanalytic thinking concerns the use of therapist subjectivity, especially “countertransference,” in understanding patients. This thinking converges with and expands developments in qualitative research regarding the use of researcher subjectivity as a tool......-Saxon and continental traditions, this special issue provides examples of the use of researcher subjectivity, informed by psychoanalytic thinking, in expanding research understanding....

  12. Behavior, Expectations and Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Jr, Murray; Rashotte, Lisa Slattery

    2010-01-01

    We predict effects of behavior patterns and status on performance expectations and group inequality using an integrated theory developed by Fisek, Berger and Norman (1991). We next test those predictions using new experimental techniques we developed to control behavior patterns as independent variables. In a 10-condition experiment, predictions…

  13. Life Expectancy in 2040

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; DuGoff, Eva H; Wu, Albert W.

    2016-01-01

    We use expert clinical and public health opinion to estimate likely changes in the prevention and treatment of important disease conditions and how they will affect future life expectancy. Focus groups were held including clinical and public health faculty with expertise in the six leading causes...

  14. Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

  15. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations have long been quantified using expectedness ratings. Motivated by statistical learning and sharper key profiles in musicians, we model musical learning as a process of reducing the relative entropy between listeners' prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions...... of a given musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians are revisited. Exp. 1-2 used jazz, classical and hymn melodies. Exp. 3-5 collected ratings before and after exposure to 5, 15 or 400 novel melodies generated from...... a finite-state grammar using the Bohlen-Pierce scale. We find group differences in entropy corresponding to degree and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions by default, statistical...

  16. Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

    2003-06-01

    This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

  17. Chinese students' great expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Stig

    2013-01-01

    The article focuses on Chinese students' hopes and expectations before leaving to study abroad. The national political environment for their decision to go abroad is shaped by an official narrative of China's transition to a more creative and innovative economy. Students draw on this narrative to...... system, they think of themselves as having a role in the transformation of Chinese attitudes to education and parent-child relations....

  18. Expectancy Theory Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-08-01

    accomplish the task, (2) the instrumentality of task performance for job outcomes, and (3) the instrumentality of outcomes for need satisfaction . We...in this discussion: effort, performance , outcomes, and needs. In order to present briefly the conventional approach to the Vroom models, another...Presumably, this is the final event in the sequence of effort, performance , outcome, and need satisfaction . The actual research reported in expectancy

  19. Expectations from the child

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erdal Atabek

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Transition from agricultural society to industry society, from industrial society to science society has taken place. In all these societies, expectations from children also vary. In the agricultural community, human labor is based on arm power. For this reason, expectation from children is to increase work power. Having more children is the basis for the expectations in this community to see that the boy is valuable because he has increased his work power. In the industrial society, the power of the arm changed its place with the machine power. The knowledgeable person is not a family grown-up but a foreman. Childhood was distinguished during this period. It has been investigated that the child has a separate development.  In the information society, communication and information has never been as fast as it is in this period.  The widespread use of the Internet, and the use of social networks such as Facebook and Twitter are in this period. In this society, families are panicked to prepare a future in their own heads for their children. Because the parents thought of their children, they decided about the child's life instead of the child making these decisions. This has had a negative impact on children's sense of autonomy and their ability to take responsibility. To change this, parents should train their children in auto control and develop children's impulse control skills. The children should be able to understand their emotions and make decisions by reasoning and reasoning.

  20. The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Lee, Jinkook

    these expectations and savings behavior, using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We find a clear relation between subjective expectations and probability of future nursing home entry, and a positive effect of these expectations on savings behavior. Surprisingly, we find no difference of this effect...... by wealth group, so it seems that Medicaid eligibility in the context of nursing home entry plays no factor in the decision to save....

  1. SUBJECT INDEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    2- and 4-mercaptopyridines and their application as corrosion ... ring: Synthesis, structures, stability and utility. 23. Amide ..... HPLC. Isolation and characterization of higher metallo- fullerenes Ca@C92 and Ca@C94. 297 .... m-aminophenol.

  2. Subject Index

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Seismic Study of Magnetic Field in the Solar Interior (H. M. Antia), 85 ... Hα Intensity Oscillations in Large Flares (Ram Ajor Maurya & Ashok Ambastha), 249 .... Utilization of GPS Satellites for Precise Irradiation Measurement and Monitoring.

  3. An expected utility maximizer walks into a bar…

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burghart, Daniel R; Glimcher, Paul W; Lazzaro, Stephanie C

    2013-06-01

    We conducted field experiments at a bar to test whether blood alcohol concentration (BAC) correlates with violations of the generalized axiom of revealed preference (GARP) and the independence axiom. We found that individuals with BACs well above the legal limit for driving adhere to GARP and independence at rates similar to those who are sober. This finding led to the fielding of a third experiment to explore how risk preferences might vary as a function of BAC. We found gender-specific effects: Men did not exhibit variations in risk preferences across BACs. In contrast, women were more risk averse than men at low BACs but exhibited increasing tolerance towards risks as BAC increased. Based on our estimates, men and women's risk preferences are predicted to be identical at BACs nearly twice the legal limit for driving. We discuss the implications for policy-makers.

  4. Referral expectations of radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, W.L.; Altmaier, E.; Berberoglu, L.; Morris, K.

    1989-01-01

    The expectation of the referring physician are key to developing a successful practice in radiology. Structured interviews with 17 clinicians in both community care and academic practice documented that accuracy of the radiologic report was the single most important factor in clinician satisfaction. Data intercorrelation showed that accuracy of report correlated with frequency of referral (r = .49). Overall satisfaction of the referring physician with radiology correlated with accuracy (r = .69), patient satisfaction (r = .36), and efficiency in archiving (r = .42). These data may be weighted by departmental managers to allocate resources for improving referring physician satisfaction

  5. Agreeing on expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian; Bentsen, Martin Juul

    Commitment and trust are often mentioned as important aspects of creating a perception of reliability between counterparts. In the context of university-industry collaborations (UICs), agreeing on ambitions and expectations are adamant to achieving outcomes that are equally valuable to all parties...... involved. Despite this, our initial probing indicated that such covenants rarely exist. As such, this paper draws on project management theory and proposes the possibility of structuring assessments of potential partners before university-industry collaborations are brought to life. Our analysis suggests...

  6. Dishonest Academic Conduct: From the Perspective of the Utility Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ying; Tian, Rui

    Dishonest academic conduct has aroused extensive attention in academic circles. To explore how scholars make decisions according to the principle of maximal utility, the author has constructed the general utility function based on the expected utility theory. The concrete utility functions of different types of scholars were deduced. They are as follows: risk neutral, risk averse, and risk preference. Following this, the assignment method was adopted to analyze and compare the scholars' utilities of academic conduct. It was concluded that changing the values of risk costs, internal condemnation costs, academic benefits, and the subjective estimation of penalties following dishonest academic conduct can lead to changes in the utility of academic dishonesty. The results of the current study suggest that within scientific research, measures to prevent and govern dishonest academic conduct should be formulated according to the various effects of the above four variables.

  7. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  8. Gender Roles and Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana A. Eisenchlas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available One consequence of the advent of cyber communication is that increasing numbers of people go online to ask for, obtain, and presumably act upon advice dispensed by unknown peers. Just as advice seekers may not have access to information about the identities, ideologies, and other personal characteristics of advice givers, advice givers are equally ignorant about their interlocutors except for the bits of demographic information that the latter may offer freely. In the present study, that information concerns sex. As the sex of the advice seeker may be the only, or the predominant, contextual variable at hand, it is expected that that identifier will guide advice givers in formulating their advice. The aim of this project is to investigate whether and how the sex of advice givers and receivers affects the type of advice, through the empirical analysis of a corpus of web-based Spanish language forums on personal relationship difficulties. The data revealed that, in the absence of individuating information beyond that implicit in the advice request, internalized gender expectations along the lines of agency and communality are the sources from which advice givers draw to guide their counsel. This is despite the trend in discursive practices used in formulating advice, suggesting greater language convergence across sexes.

  9. ATLAS: Exceeding all expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    “One year ago it would have been impossible for us to guess that the machine and the experiments could achieve so much so quickly”, says Fabiola Gianotti, ATLAS spokesperson. The whole chain – from collision to data analysis – has worked remarkably well in ATLAS.   The first LHC proton run undoubtedly exceeded expectations for the ATLAS experiment. “ATLAS has worked very well since the beginning. Its overall data-taking efficiency is greater than 90%”, says Fabiola Gianotti. “The quality and maturity of the reconstruction and simulation software turned out to be better than we expected for this initial stage of the experiment. The Grid is a great success, and right from the beginning it has allowed members of the collaboration all over the world to participate in the data analysis in an effective and timely manner, and to deliver physics results very quickly”. In just a few months of data taking, ATLAS has observed t...

  10. When expectation confounds iconic memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Talis; Aru, Jaan

    2016-10-01

    In response to the methodological criticism (Bachmann & Aru, 2015) of the interpretation of their earlier experimental results (Mack, Erol, & Clarke, 2015) Mack, Erol, Clarke, and Bert (2016) presented new results that they interpret again in favor of the stance that an attention-free phenomenal iconic store does not exist. Here we once more question their conclusions. When their subjects were unexpectedly asked to report the letters instead of the post-cued circles in the 101th trial where letters were actually absent, they likely failed to see the empty display area because prior experience with letters in the preceding trials produced expectancy based illusory experience of letter-like objects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Illustrated Examples of the Effects of Risk Preferences and Expectations on Bargaining Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, David L.

    2003-01-01

    Describes bargaining examples that use expected utility theory. Provides example results that are intuitive, shown graphically and algebraically, and offer upper-level student samples that illustrate the usefulness of the expected utility theory. (JEH)

  12. WHAT INFLUENCES STUDENTS' EXPECTATIONS IN WHAT REGARDS GRADES?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mare Codruta

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available After a period of studying a certain subject, students form an opinion about it and begin having certain expectations. These expectations and the degree in which, in the end, they fulfil, contribute to the reputation of the university. Consequently, a continuous evaluation of the quality of the educational process is needed. The present research presents a part of a more complex study made on a sample of master students in Audit and Financial Management in Romania. The goal was to evidence the main factors that affect students' expectations in what regards the grades they will obtain at the end of the semester. For this, a questionnaire of 20 questions was applied to 250 such students. After factor reduction procedures were applied, six most significant variables were kept in the analysis: the proportion of knowledge acquired, the perceived level of utility of the discipline in the professional career of the student, the proportion in which the subject could contribute to getting employed in the field it belongs to, the evaluation method and two variables evaluating through grades the didactic performance during the course and the overall performance of the tenure professor. The influence of these variables upon the grade expected by the student was assessed with the help of the OLS regression, both in the simple and multiple forms. Out of the six hypotheses formulated, only one proved to be false based on the simple regression analysis. When individually assessed, the evaluation method announced by the teacher at the beginning of the semester turned out to have no statistically significant influence upon students' expectations. For the rest of the variables, results were according to the assumptions made, i.e. all determine in a significant positive manner the students' opinion about the grade they will get. We have also constructed the multiple regression models. When putting all variables together, the significance changes. The level of

  13. A case for teaching English as a service subject at universities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A case for teaching English as a service subject at universities in Kenya. ... of this is that the learner is expected to acquire and utilize skills using a language he or she is not quite ... paper discusses the English language needs of Kenyan students at the time of entry to ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  14. Energy providers: customer expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pridham, N.F.

    1997-01-01

    The deregulation of the gas and electric power industries, and how it will impact on customer service and pricing rates was discussed. This paper described the present situation, reviewed core competencies, and outlined future expectations. The bottom line is that major energy consumers are very conscious of energy costs and go to great lengths to keep them under control. At the same time, solutions proposed to reduce energy costs must benefit all classes of consumers, be they industrial, commercial, institutional or residential. Deregulation and competition at an accelerated pace is the most likely answer. This may be forced by external forces such as foreign energy providers who are eager to enter the Canadian energy market. It is also likely that the competition and convergence between gas and electricity is just the beginning, and may well be overshadowed by other deregulated industries as they determine their core competencies

  15. Customer experiences and expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morton, C. R.

    1997-01-01

    Customer experiences and expectations from competition and cogeneration in the power industry were reviewed by Charles Morton, Director of Energy at CPC International, by describing Casco's decision to get into cogeneration in the early 1990s in three small corn milling plants in Cardinal, London and Port Colborne, Ontario, mainly as result of the threat of a 40 per cent increase in power prices. He stressed that cost competitiveness of cogeneration is entirely site-specific, but it is generally more attractive in larger facilities that operate 24 hours a day, where grid power is expensive or unreliable. Because it is reliable, cogeneration holds out the prospect of increased production-up time, as well as offering a hedge against higher energy costs, reducing the company's variable costs when incoming revenues fall short of costs, and providing an additional tool in head-to-head competition

  16. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as ...

  17. A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

    2004-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

  18. What characterises the expectations of gamblers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Connie

    the gamblers have erroneous thoughts of gambling, their subjective estimates of the return rates of the games, expected gains and motives of consumption and investment for playing. These aspects will help to create a picture of how rational the gamblers are and whether there are significant differences between...

  19. Stolarsky's inequality for Choquet-like expectation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 66, č. 5 (2016), s. 1235-1248 ISSN 0139-9918 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Choquet-like expectation * Stolarsky’s inequality * Minkowski’s inequality Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.346, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/mesiar-0469701.pdf

  20. Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; Sonnemans, J.; Tuinstra, J.; van de Velden, H.

    2008-01-01

    We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset. The realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts. In most

  1. Demystify Learning Expectations to Address Grade Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodges, Linda C.

    2014-01-01

    This article describes the subject of "grade inflation," a reference to educators giving higher grades to student work than their expectations for student achievement warrant. Of the many reasons why this practice happens, Hodges specifically discusses inflating grades as "a natural consequence" when the faculty really…

  2. Effects of Evaluation Expectation on Artistic Creativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amabile, Teresa M.

    Conditions are examined under which the imposition of an extrinsic constraint upon performance of an activity can lead to decrements in creativity. Female college students worked on an art activity either with or without the expectation of external evaluation. In addition, subjects were asked to focus upon either the creative or the technical…

  3. On the Expected Value of Fuzzy Events

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klement, E.P.; Mesiar, Radko

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 23, Supplement 1 (2015), s. 57-74 ISSN 0218-4885 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : expected value * fuzzy event * Choquet integral Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/E/mesiar-0452568.pdf

  4. Inflation expectations in the Czech interbank market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fukač, Martin

    -, č. 253 (2005), s. 1-30 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation expectations * nominal interest rate * Fisher rule Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp253.pdf

  5. Effects of Teacher Expectancies: Myth or Reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aron, Robert; And Others

    This study manipulates the variables of children's ethnicity, sex, and ability to ascertain the nature of the interaction relationship between teacher expectancies and student performance. The subjects were urban teachers who were asked to read case histories and then rate the child on a Likert-type family and pupil behavior rating form and a…

  6. Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Gollier, Christian

    2010-01-01

    Weitzman (1998) showed that when future interest rates are uncertain, using the expected net present value implies a term structure of discount rates that is decreasing to the smallest possible interest rate. On the contrary, using the expected net future value criteria implies an increasing term structure of discount rates up to the largest possible interest rate. We reconcile the two approaches by introducing risk aversion and utility maximization. We show that if the aggregate consumption ...

  7. Expectations about Expectations of the Public. Political Elections and the Segmentation of the Political Public

    OpenAIRE

    Kusche, Isabel

    2012-01-01

    This article analyzes the role that expectations about particularistic expectations of the political public play in the relationship between political actors and voters. It questions the systems-theoretical assumption that political elections and public communication about politics create an unknown public and that parties therefore can attract voters only with the help of relatively universalistic programs. Beyond the universalism induced by the mass media parties and politicians utilize opp...

  8. Expectations from ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. Patricia Fleming, centred her presentation on ethical expectations in regulating safety for future generations. The challenge is to find a just solution, one that provides for a defensible approach to inter-generational equity. The question on equity is about whether we are permitted to treat generations differently and to still meet the demands of justice. And the question must be asked regarding these differences: 'in what ways do they make a moral difference?' She asked the question regarding the exact meaning of the ethical principle 'Radioactive waste shall be managed in such a way that predicted impacts on the health of future generations will not be greater than relevant levels of impact that are acceptable today'. Some countries have proposed different standards for different time periods, either implicitly or explicitly. In doing so, have they preserved our standards of justice or have they abandoned them? Prof. Fleming identified six points to provide with some moral maps which might be used to negotiate our way to a just solution to the disposal of nuclear waste. (author)

  9. Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    DuGoff, Eva H; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Buttorff, Christine

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The number of people living with multiple chronic conditions is increasing, but we know little about the impact of multimorbidity on life expectancy. OBJECTIVE: We analyze life expectancy in Medicare beneficiaries by number of chronic conditions. RESEARCH DESIGN: A retrospective cohort...... study using single-decrement period life tables. SUBJECTS: Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. MEASURES: Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer...... and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency....

  10. Expectations from Society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blowers, A.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. A. Blowers observed that the social context within which radioactive waste management is considered has evolved over time. The early period where radioactive waste was a non-issue was succeeded by a period of intense conflict over solutions. The contemporary context is more consensual, in which solutions are sought that are both technically sound and socially acceptable. Among the major issues is that of inter-generational equity embraced in the question: how long can or should our responsibility to the future extend? He pointed out the differences in timescales. On the one hand, geo-scientific timescales are very long term, emphasizing the issue of how far into the future it is possible to make predictions about repository safety. By contrast, socio cultural timescales are much shorter, focusing on the foreseeable future of one or two generations and raising the issue of how far into the future we should be concerned. He listed. the primary expectations from society which are: safety and security to alleviate undue burdens to future generations and flexibility in order to enable the future generations to have a stake in decision making. The need to reconcile the two had led to a contemporary emphasis on phased geological disposal incorporating retrievability. However, the long timescales for implementation of disposal provided for sufficient flexibility without the need for retrievability. Future generations would inevitably have sold stake in decision making. Prof. A.. Blowers pointed out that society is also concerned with participation in decision making for implementation. The key elements for success are: openness and transparency, staged process, participation, partnership, benefits to enhance the well being of communities and a democratic framework for decision making, including the ratification of key decisions and the right for communities to withdraw from the process up to a predetermined point. This approach for decision making may also have

  11. Expected years ever married

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryohei Mogi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the second half of the 20th century, remarkable marriage changes were seen: a great proportion of never married population, high average age at first marriage, and large variance in first marriage timing. Although it is theoretically possible to separate these three elements, disentangling them analytically remains a challenge. Objective: This study's goal is to answer the following questions: Which of the three effects, nonmarriage, delayed marriage, or expansion, has the most impact on nuptiality changes? How does the most influential factor differ by time periods, birth cohorts, and countries? Methods: To quantify nuptiality changes over time, we define the measure 'expected years ever married' (EYEM. We illustrate the use of EYEM, looking at time trends in 15 countries (six countries for cohort analysis and decompose these trends into three components: scale (the changes in the proportion of never married - nonmarriage, location (the changes in timing of first marriage - delayed marriage, and variance (the changes in the standard deviation of first marriage age - expansion. We used population counts by sex, age, and marital status from national statistical offices and the United Nations database. Results: Results show that delayed marriage is the most influential factor on period EYEM's changes, while nonmarriage has recently begun to contribute to the change in North and West Europe and Canada. Period and cohort analysis complement each other. Conclusions: This study introduces a new index of nuptiality and decomposes its change into the contribution of three components: scale, location, and variance. The decomposition steps presented here offer an open possibility for more elaborate parametric marriage models.

  12. Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

    2004-01-01

    In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

  13. Expectations from implementers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biurrun, E.; Zuidema, P.

    2008-01-01

    Enrique Biurrun (DBE) presented the expectations from the implementer. He explained that the implementer needs a framework to successfully develop a repository which means the definition of requirements and guidance (for repository system development, analysis, licences, etc.) as well as the decision-making process (stepwise approach, roles of different players, etc.). He also needs a reasonable stability of the regulatory system. The regulatory framework should be developed in a clear, reasonable and consistent manner. In the context of the long duration of the project (100 years) there will be technological progress. In that context E. Biurrun asked what is the meaning of best practice. How can one deal with judgmental issues in a step-wise approach? Regulatory criteria and guidance must deal with the repository system for which an iterative process is necessary where dialogue is needed with the regulator despite the need to maintain his independence. The safety case, which is a periodic documentation of the status of the project, must provide a synthesis of the underlying scientific understanding and evidence and becomes part of the design process through feedback. E. Biurrun pointed out that safety is not calculated or assessed, but designed and built into the repository system (by geological and engineered barriers). He stressed the importance of the operational aspects since the implementer has to build and operate the repository safely. He asked the question: is it 'Ethical' to buy 'peace of mind' of some stakeholders with casualties of the implementer's staff because of mining accidents if the repository is left open during a phase of reversibility. The implementer needs dependable criteria, legal security and investment security. He interpreted the 'Precautionary principle' as meaning 'do it now'. Long-lasting solutions are very uncertain. Will we heave the money and the technology to do it later? He made some reflections regarding the ethical need to

  14. Patients' and parents' expectations of orthodontic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiemstra, Renske; Bos, Annemieke; Hoogstraten, Johan

    2009-12-01

    To investigate the expectations of children and their primary care-givers towards orthodontic treatment and to compare the results with those of a UK sample. A questionnaire survey of children and their primary care-givers attending for their first consultation. The Department of Orthodontics at the Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), the Netherlands. A total of 168 subjects (84 patients and 84 parents) completed the questionnaire. The children were aged 10 to 14 years. The responses of the children and parents and differences between boys and girls were examined using parametric statistical methods. The data from the Dutch sample were compared with a similar UK sample. Patients and parents shared similar expectations of orthodontic treatment, with the exception of expectations of having a brace fitted at the first appointment, orthodontic treatment involving headgear, any problems with orthodontic treatment, duration of orthodontic treatment and concerning reactions from the public. Among the child participants, boys and girls only differed in their expectations of orthodontic treatment involving jaw surgery. Differences between Dutch and English participants were found regarding the first visit, type of orthodontic treatment, reactions from the public, and pain and problems with orthodontic treatment. Since the expectations of patients and their parents differ on several aspects, effective communication between the orthodontist, patient and parent is considered to be essential. Our hypothesis that Dutch patients' and parents' expectations of orthodontic treatment differ from the expectations of English patients and parents was supported.

  15. Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

    2004-01-01

    Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

  16. Teorías subjetivas de profesores sobre la motivación y sus expectativas de éxito y fracaso escolar Teorias subjetivas de professores sobre a motivação e suas expectativas de sucesso e fracasso escolar Subjective theories of teachers about motivation and their expectancies about school success and failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Javier Castro-Carrasco

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Investigación cualitativa que busca describir e interpretar las teorías subjetivas de un grupo de profesores de un liceo técnico público acerca de la motivación escolar (rol como agente motivacional y motivación inherente a las alumnas y sus expectativas acerca del éxito y fracaso escolar. Los datos recolectados mediante observación directa de reuniones de profesores y de una entrevista grupal en profundidad, fueron analizados mediante el programa Atlas-Ti, siguiendo orientaciones de la Grounded Theory. Los resultados muestran que la sobreatribución que hacen los profesores acerca de su responsabilidad como agente motivacional ignora otras variables del proceso enseñanza-aprendizaje, dependientes tanto de las alumnas como del contexto educativo, y que sus expectativas de éxito o fracaso se relacionan directamente con los objetivos del establecimiento.Pesquisa qualitativa que procura descrever e interpretar as teorias subjetivas de um grupo de professores de uma escola técnica pública sobre a motivação escolar (seu papel como agente motivacional e motivação relacionada às alunas e suas expectativas a respeito do sucesso e fracasso escolar. Os dados coletados, mediante observação direta de reuniões dos professores e de uma entrevista grupal em profundidade, foram analisados utilizando-se o programa Atlas-Ti, seguindo as orientações da Grounded Theory. Os resultados mostram que a supervalorização, por parte dos professores, quanto à sua responsabilidade como agente motivacional ignora outras variáveis no processo ensino-aprendizagem, dependentes tanto das alunas como do contexto educativo, e que suas expectativas de sucesso ou fracasso se relacionam diretamente com os objetivos do estabelecimento.Qualitative research that looks to describe and to interpret the subjective theories of a group of teachers from a public technical high school about school motivation (its role as a motivational agent and the motivation inherent

  17. Identifying public expectations of genetic biobanks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchley, Christine; Nicol, Dianne; McWhirter, Rebekah

    2017-08-01

    Understanding public priorities for biobanks is vital for maximising utility and efficiency of genetic research and maintaining respect for donors. This research directly assessed the relative importance the public place on different expectations of biobanks. Quantitative and qualitative results from a national sample of 800 Australians revealed that the majority attributed more importance to protecting privacy and ethical conduct than maximising new healthcare benefits, which was in turn viewed as more important than obtaining specific consent, benefit sharing, collaborating and sharing data. A latent class analysis identified two distinct classes displaying different patterns of expectations. One placed higher priority on behaviours that respect the donor ( n = 623), the other on accelerating science ( n = 278). Additional expectations derived from qualitative data included the need for biobanks to be transparent and to prioritise their research focus, educate the public and address commercialisation.

  18. Dopamine reward prediction error responses reflect marginal utility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Schultz, Wolfram

    2014-11-03

    Optimal choices require an accurate neuronal representation of economic value. In economics, utility functions are mathematical representations of subjective value that can be constructed from choices under risk. Utility usually exhibits a nonlinear relationship to physical reward value that corresponds to risk attitudes and reflects the increasing or decreasing marginal utility obtained with each additional unit of reward. Accordingly, neuronal reward responses coding utility should robustly reflect this nonlinearity. In two monkeys, we measured utility as a function of physical reward value from meaningful choices under risk (that adhered to first- and second-order stochastic dominance). The resulting nonlinear utility functions predicted the certainty equivalents for new gambles, indicating that the functions' shapes were meaningful. The monkeys were risk seeking (convex utility function) for low reward and risk avoiding (concave utility function) with higher amounts. Critically, the dopamine prediction error responses at the time of reward itself reflected the nonlinear utility functions measured at the time of choices. In particular, the reward response magnitude depended on the first derivative of the utility function and thus reflected the marginal utility. Furthermore, dopamine responses recorded outside of the task reflected the marginal utility of unpredicted reward. Accordingly, these responses were sufficient to train reinforcement learning models to predict the behaviorally defined expected utility of gambles. These data suggest a neuronal manifestation of marginal utility in dopamine neurons and indicate a common neuronal basis for fundamental explanatory constructs in animal learning theory (prediction error) and economic decision theory (marginal utility). Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Patient (customer) expectations in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostan, Sedat; Acuner, Taner; Yilmaz, Gökhan

    2007-06-01

    The expectations of patient are one of the determining factors of healthcare service. The purpose of this study is to measure the Patients' Expectations, based on Patient's Rights. This study was done with Likert-Survey in Trabzon population. The analyses showed that the level of the expectations of the patient was high on the factor of receiving information and at an acceptable level on the other factors. Statistical meaningfulness was determined between age, sex, education, health insurance, and the income of the family and the expectations of the patients (pstudy, the current legal regulations have higher standards than the expectations of the patients. The reason that the satisfaction of the patients high level is interpreted due to the fact that the level of the expectation is low. It is suggested that the educational and public awareness studies on the patients' rights must be done in order to increase the expectations of the patients.

  20. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

  1. Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. “Life-experience inflation” has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncra...

  2. Framing effects in choices between multioutcome life-expectancy lotteries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstein, L M; Chapman, G B; Elstein, A S

    1999-01-01

    To explore framing or editing effects and a method to debias framing in a clinical context. Clinical scenarios using multioutcome life-expectancy lotteries of equal value required choices between two supplementary drugs that either prolonged or shortened life from the 20-year beneficial effect of a baseline drug. The effects of these supplementary drugs were presented in two conditions, using a between-subjects design. In segregated editing (n = 116) the effects were presented separately from the effects of the baseline drug. In integrated editing (n = 100), effects of supplementary and baseline drugs were combined in the lottery presentation. Each subject responded to 30 problems. To explore one method of debiasing, another 100 subjects made choices after viewing both segregated and integrated editings of 20 problems (dual framing). Statistically significant preference reversals between segregated and integrated editing of pure lotteries occurred only when one framing placed outcomes in the gain domain, and the other framing placed them in the loss domain. When both editings resulted in gain-domain outcomes only, there was no framing effect. There was a related relationship of framing-effect shifts from losses to gains in mixed-lottery-choice problems. Responses to the dual framing condition did not consistently coincide with responses to either single framing. In some situations, dual framing eliminated or lessened framing effects. The results support two components of prospect theory, coding outcomes as gains or losses from a reference point, and an s-shaped utility function (concave in gain, convex in loss domains). Presenting both alternative editings of a complex situation prior to choice more fully informs the decision maker and may help to reduce framing effects. Given the extent to which preferences shift in response to alternative presentations, it is unclear which choice represents the subject's "true preferences."

  3. Expectation-based intelligent control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zak, Michail

    2006-01-01

    New dynamics paradigms-negative diffusion and terminal attractors-are introduced to control noise and chaos. The applied control forces are composed of expectations governed by the associated Fokker-Planck and Liouville equations. The approach is expanded to a general concept of intelligent control via expectations. Relevance to control in livings is emphasized and illustrated by neural nets with mirror neurons

  4. Decomposing change in life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir

    2003-01-01

    We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates...... in Sweden and Japan....

  5. Sibling Status Effects: Adult Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskett, Linda Musun

    1985-01-01

    This study attempted to determine what expectations or beliefs adults might hold about a child based on his or her sibling status alone. Ratings on 50 adjective pairs for each of three sibling status types, only, oldest, and youngest child, were assessed in relation to adult expectations, birth order, and parental status of rater. (Author/DST)

  6. Evaluation of a Topical Anti-inflammatory/Antifungal Combination Cream in Mild-to-moderate Facial Seborrheic Dermatitis: An Intra-subject Controlled Trial Examining Treated vs. Untreated Skin Utilizing Clinical Features and Erythema-directed Digital Photography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall'Oglio, Federica; Tedeschi, Aurora; Guardabasso, Vincenzo; Micali, Giuseppe

    2015-09-01

    To evaluate if nonprescription topical agents may provide positive outcomes in the management of mild-to-moderate facial seborrheic dermatitis by reducing inflammation and scale production through clinical evaluation and erythema-directed digital photography. Open-label, prospective, not-blinded, intra-patient, controlled, clinical trial (target area). Twenty adult subjects affected by mild-to-moderate facial seborrheic dermatitis were enrolled and instructed to apply the study cream two times daily, initially on a selected target area only for seven days. If the subject developed visible improvement, it was advised to extend the application to all facial affected area for 21 additional days. Efficacy was evaluated by measuring the grade of erythema (by clinical examination and by erythema-directed digital photography), desquamation (by clinical examination), and pruritus (by subject-completed visual analog scale). Additionally, at the end of the protocol, a Physician Global Assessment was carried out. Eighteen subjects completed the study, whereas two subjects were lost to follow-up for nonadherence and personal reasons, respectively. Day 7 data from target areas showed a significant reduction in erythema. At the end of study, a significant improvement was recorded for erythema, desquamation, and pruritus compared to baseline. Physician Global Assessment showed improvement in 89 percent of patients, with a complete response in 56 percent of cases. These preliminary results indicate that the study cream may be a viable nonprescription therapeutic option for patients affected by facial seborrheic dermatitis able to determine early and significant improvement. This study also emphasizes the advantages of using an erythema-directed digital photography system for assisting in a simple, more accurate erythema severity grading and therapeutic monitoring in patients affected by seborrheic dermatitis.

  7. Cannabis expectancies in substance misusers: French validation of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillem, Eric; Notides, Christine; Vorspan, Florence; Debray, Marcel; Nieto, Isabel; Leroux, Mayliss; Lépine, Jean-Pierre

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the French version of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire (48 items) and study the cannabis expectancies according to the patterns of substance use and psychiatric disorders (DSM-IV). A sample of 263 subjects (average age 33.1 years [SD = 8.7], 56% men) consisting of cannabis users (n = 64), psychiatric inpatients (n = 175, most of whom were hospitalized for withdrawal), and a control group (n = 24) completed the questionnaire. Internal reliability was good (α= .87) and temporal reliability was satisfactory, with 24 of 48 items having a significant κ ≥ .41. Factor analysis showed four main factors that explained 42.1% of the total variance. The women feared Cognitive Impairment and Negative Effects, and Negative Behavioral Effects more than the men. The onset age of cannabis use, onset age of abuse, abuse and dependence were associated with fewer negative expectancies. Cannabis dependents differed from abusers by more Relaxation and Social Facilitation expectancies. Patients with major depressive episodes, panic disorder, social anxiety disorder, or posttraumatic stress disorder feared negative effects the most. Schizophrenic patients expected more Perceptual Enhancement and Craving. The French version of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire has good psychometric properties and is valid to assess cannabis expectancies in adolescents and adults with substance use disorders. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  8. Mox fuel utilization in ATR

    OpenAIRE

    下村 和生; 川太 徳夫

    1987-01-01

    ATR, a heavy-water moderated boiling-light-water cooled reactor developed in Japan, is a unique reactor with out-standing flexibility regarding nuclear fuel utilization, because it has superior properties concerning the utilization of plutonium, recovered uranium and depleted uranium. The development of this type of reactor is expected to contribute both to the stable supply of energy and to the establishment of plutonium utilization in Japan. Much effort has been and will be made on the deve...

  9. Neural correlates of rhythmic expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore P. Zanto

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Temporal expectancy is thought to play a fundamental role in the perception of rhythm. This review summarizes recent studies that investigated rhythmic expectancy by recording neuroelectric activity with high temporal resolution during the presentation of rhythmic patterns. Prior event-related brain potential (ERP studies have uncovered auditory evoked responses that reflect detection of onsets, offsets, sustains,and abrupt changes in acoustic properties such as frequency, intensity, and spectrum, in addition to indexing higher-order processes such as auditory sensory memory and the violation of expectancy. In our studies of rhythmic expectancy, we measured emitted responses - a type of ERP that occurs when an expected event is omitted from a regular series of stimulus events - in simple rhythms with temporal structures typical of music. Our observations suggest that middle-latency gamma band (20-60 Hz activity (GBA plays an essential role in auditory rhythm processing. Evoked (phase-locked GBA occurs in the presence of physically presented auditory events and reflects the degree of accent. Induced (non-phase-locked GBA reflects temporally precise expectancies for strongly and weakly accented events in sound patterns. Thus far, these findings support theories of rhythm perception that posit temporal expectancies generated by active neural processes.

  10. Dialysis centers - what to expect

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... kidneys - dialysis centers; Dialysis - what to expect; Renal replacement therapy - dialysis centers; End-stage renal disease - dialysis ... to a tube that connects to the dialysis machine. Your blood will flow through the tube, into ...

  11. Life expectancy in bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Life expectancy in patients with bipolar disorder has been reported to be decreased by 11 to 20 years. These calculations are based on data for individuals at the age of 15 years. However, this may be misleading for patients with bipolar disorder in general as most patients have a later...... onset of illness. The aim of the present study was to calculate the remaining life expectancy for patients of different ages with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. METHODS: Using nationwide registers of all inpatient and outpatient contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark from 1970 to 2012 we...... remaining life expectancy in bipolar disorder and that of the general population decreased with age, indicating that patients with bipolar disorder start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy in bipolar disorder is decreased substantially, but less so than previously...

  12. FastStats: Life Expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What's this? Submit What's this? Submit Button NCHS Home ... expectancy at birth, at 65, and 75 years of age by sex, race and Hispanic origin Health, United States 2016, table 15 [PDF – 9.8 MB] Life ...

  13. Physical activity extends life expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisure-time physical activity is associated with longer life expectancy, even at relatively low levels of activity and regardless of body weight, according to a study by a team of researchers led by the NCI.

  14. Statistical utility theory for comparison of nuclear versus fossil power plant alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garribba, S.; Ovi, A.

    1977-01-01

    A statistical formulation of utility theory is developed for decision problems concerned with the choice among alternative strategies in electric energy production. Four alternatives are considered: nuclear power, fossil power, solar energy, and conservation policy. Attention is focused on a public electric utility thought of as a rational decision-maker. A framework for decisions is then suggested where the admissible strategies and their possible consequences represent the information available to the decision-maker. Once the objectives of the decision process are assessed, consequences can be quantified in terms of measures of effectiveness. Maximum expected utility is the criterion of choice among alternatives. Steps toward expected values are the evaluation of the multidimensional utility function and the assessment of subjective probabilities for consequences. In this respect, the multiplicative form of the utility function seems less restrictive than the additive form and almost as manageable to implement. Probabilities are expressed through subjective marginal probability density functions given at a discrete number of points. The final stage of the decision model is to establish the value of each strategy. To this scope, expected utilities are computed and scaled. The result is that nuclear power offers the best alternative. 8 figures, 9 tables, 32 references

  15. Estimating Utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Simler, Kenneth R.

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental premise of absolute poverty lines is that they represent the same level of utility through time and space. Disturbingly, a series of recent studies in middle- and low-income economies show that even carefully derived poverty lines rarely satisfy this premise. This article proposes a......, with the current approach tending to systematically overestimate (underestimate) poverty in urban (rural) zones.......A fundamental premise of absolute poverty lines is that they represent the same level of utility through time and space. Disturbingly, a series of recent studies in middle- and low-income economies show that even carefully derived poverty lines rarely satisfy this premise. This article proposes...... an information-theoretic approach to estimating cost-of-basic-needs (CBN) poverty lines that are utility consistent. Applications to date illustrate that utility-consistent poverty measurements derived from the proposed approach and those derived from current CBN best practices often differ substantially...

  16. Ethical aspects of trade subject to risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gethmann, C.F.

    1987-01-01

    The paper pleads for unrestricted use of the requirement of rational risk comparison. The ethical aspects of the problem are that human beings cannot help expecting certain people to take risks and others to forsake them. Expectation of risk requires an ethical justification. Consideration of justification has of course to originate from the fact that both readiness to accept risk and also the preference system are subject to strong subjective variations. Consequently, intercession has to be made to compare the definition of subjective probability (competitiveness) and a subjective preference matrix as the basis for a rational definition of risk. General liability results first due to the fact that consistency can be expected from each individual in relation to the readiness to accept risk expected of him. According to the requirement for consistency introduced here, a readiness to accept risk may be expected of an individual which is otherwise already accepted. (orig.) [de

  17. The Utility of the Prototype/Willingness Model in Predicting Alcohol Use among North American Indigenous Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armenta, Brian E.; Hautala, Dane S.; Whitbeck, Les B.

    2015-01-01

    In the present study, we considered the utility of the prototype/willingness model in predicting alcohol use among North-American Indigenous adolescents. Specifically, using longitudinal data, we examined the associations among subjective drinking norms, positive drinker prototypes, drinking expectations (as a proxy of drinking willingness), and…

  18. What can we expect from future accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panofsky, W.K.H.

    1984-06-01

    This talk covers a general but highly subjective overview of the expectation for new accelerator development. An updated version of the Livingston chart demonstrates the exponential growth in time of the equivalent laboratory energy of accelerators. A similar Livingston chart pertaining only to electron-positron colliders shows an exponential growth but in the past only one technology - electron-positron storage rings - have been responsible for this development. The question addressed is whether the type of exponential growth reflected by these two charts can be sustained in the future

  19. Broken Expectations: Violation of Expectancies, Not Novelty, Captures Auditory Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, Francois; Hughes, Robert W.; Jones, Dylan M.

    2012-01-01

    The role of memory in behavioral distraction by auditory attentional capture was investigated: We examined whether capture is a product of the novelty of the capturing event (i.e., the absence of a recent memory for the event) or its violation of learned expectancies on the basis of a memory for an event structure. Attentional capture--indicated…

  20. Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Ormonde Teixeira

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices, professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

  1. Test expectancy affects metacomprehension accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiede, Keith W; Wiley, Jennifer; Griffin, Thomas D

    2011-06-01

    Theory suggests that the accuracy of metacognitive monitoring is affected by the cues used to judge learning. Researchers have improved monitoring accuracy by directing attention to more appropriate cues; however, this is the first study to more directly point students to more appropriate cues using instructions regarding tests and practice tests. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether the accuracy metacognitive monitoring was affected by the nature of the test expected. Students (N= 59) were randomly assigned to one of two test expectancy groups (memory vs. inference). Then after reading texts, judging learning, completed both memory and inference tests. Test performance and monitoring accuracy were superior when students received the kind of test they had been led to expect rather than the unexpected test. Tests influence students' perceptions of what constitutes learning. Our findings suggest that this could affect how students prepare for tests and how they monitoring their own learning. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

  2. Expectations for a scientific collaboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonnenwald, Diane H.

    2003-01-01

    In the past decade, a number of scientific collaboratories have emerged, yet adoption of scientific collaboratories remains limited. Meeting expectations is one factor that influences adoption of innovations, including scientific collaboratories. This paper investigates expectations scientists have...... with respect to scientific collaboratories. Interviews were conducted with 17 scientists who work in a variety of settings and have a range of experience conducting and managing scientific research. Results indicate that scientists expect a collaboratory to: support their strategic plans; facilitate management...... of the scientific process; have a positive or neutral impact on scientific outcomes; provide advantages and disadvantages for scientific task execution; and provide personal conveniences when collaborating across distances. These results both confirm existing knowledge and raise new issues for the design...

  3. Multiattribute Utility Theory, Intertemporal Utility and Correlation Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten

    2018-01-01

    Convenient assumptions about qualitative properties of the intertemporal utility function have generated counterintuitive implications for the relationship between atemporal risk aversion and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. If the intertemporal utility function is additively separable...... aversion. Our results show that subjects are correlation averse over lotteries with intertemporal income profiles....

  4. [Expectations of hospital administrators about administrative functions of nurses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, M R; Fávero, N; Trevizan, M A; Hayashida, M

    1996-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to investigate hospital administrator's expectations about the administrative role played by nurses, utilizing functions proposed by the Neoclassical Theory of Administration: planning, organization, direction, and control as theoretical references. An instrument established in TREVIZAN (1989) was applied to 11 hospital administrators. The results showed they expect the four functions to be done by nurses. Therefore, the interaction between nurses and hospital administrators is critical to improve the patient's assistance.

  5. Career Expectations of Accounting Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elam, Dennis; Mendez, Francis

    2010-01-01

    The demographic make-up of accounting students is dramatically changing. This study sets out to measure how well the profession is ready to accommodate what may be very different needs and expectations of this new generation of students. Non-traditional students are becoming more and more of a tradition in the current college classroom.…

  6. Primary expectations of secondary metabolites

    Science.gov (United States)

    My program examines the plant secondary metabolites (i.e. phenolics) important for human health, and which impart the organoleptic properties that are quality indicators for fresh and processed foods. Consumer expectations such as appearance, taste, or texture influence their purchasing decisions; a...

  7. Privacy Expectations in Online Contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pure, Rebekah Abigail

    2013-01-01

    Advances in digital networked communication technology over the last two decades have brought the issue of personal privacy into sharper focus within contemporary public discourse. In this dissertation, I explain the Fourth Amendment and the role that privacy expectations play in the constitutional protection of personal privacy generally, and…

  8. Development and validation of a questionnaire to measure preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy: EXPECT questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, V M; Chakraborty, S; Jithin, T K; Dessai, S; Sajith Babu, T P; Raghavan, V; Geetha, M; Kumar, T Shiva; Biji, M S; Bhattacharjee, A; Nair, C

    2016-01-01

    The objective was to design and validate the questionnaire for capturing palliative chemotherapy-related preferences and expectations. Single arm, unicentric, prospective observational study. EXPECT questionnaire was designed to capture preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy. This questionnaire underwent a linguistic validation and then was tested in patients. Ten patients are undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria self-administered the EXPECT questionnaire in regional language. After filling this questionnaire, they self-administered quick questionnaire-10 (QQ-10). SPSS version 16 (IBM New York) was used for analysis. Completion rate of EXPECT questionnaire was calculated. The feasibility, face validity, utility and time taken for completion of EXPECT questionnaire was also assessed. The completion rate of this questionnaire was 100%. All patients completed questionnaire within 5 min. The QQ-10 tool confirmed the feasibility, face validity and utility of the questionnaire. EXPECT questionnaire was validated in the regional language, and it's an effective tool for capturing patient's preferences and expectation from chemotherapy.

  9. Dispositional Optimism and Therapeutic Expectations in Early Phase Oncology Trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Lynn A.; Mahadevan, Daruka; Appelbaum, Paul S.; Klein, William MP; Weinstein, Neil D.; Mori, Motomi; Daffé, Racky; Sulmasy, Daniel P.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Prior research has identified unrealistic optimism as a bias that might impair informed consent among patient-subjects in early phase oncology trials. Optimism, however, is not a unitary construct – it can also be defined as a general disposition, or what is called dispositional optimism. We assessed whether dispositional optimism would be related to high expectations for personal therapeutic benefit reported by patient-subjects in these trials but not to the therapeutic misconception. We also assessed how dispositional optimism related to unrealistic optimism. Methods Patient-subjects completed questionnaires designed to measure expectations for therapeutic benefit, dispositional optimism, unrealistic optimism, and the therapeutic misconception. Results Dispositional optimism was significantly associated with higher expectations for personal therapeutic benefit (Spearman r=0.333, poptimism was weakly associated with unrealistic optimism (Spearman r=0.215, p=0.005). In multivariate analysis, both dispositional optimism (p=0.02) and unrealistic optimism (poptimism (p=.0001), but not dispositional optimism, was independently associated with the therapeutic misconception. Conclusion High expectations for therapeutic benefit among patient-subjects in early phase oncology trials should not be assumed to result from misunderstanding of specific information about the trials. Our data reveal that these expectations are associated with either a dispositionally positive outlook on life or biased expectations about specific aspects of trial participation. Not all manifestations of optimism are the same, and different types of optimism likely have different consequences for informed consent in early phase oncology research. PMID:26882017

  10. Correlations between coping styles and symptom expectation for whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Robert; Russell, Anthony S

    2010-11-01

    In pain conditions, active coping has been found to be associated with less severe depression, increased activity level, and less functional impairment. Studies indicate that Canadians have a high expectation for chronic pain following whiplash injury. Expectation of recovery has been shown to predict recovery in whiplash victims. The objective of this study was to compare both the expectations and the coping style for whiplash injury in injury-naive subjects. The Vanderbilt Pain Management Inventory was administered to university students. Subjects who had not yet experienced whiplash injury were given a vignette concerning a neck sprain (whiplash injury) in a motor vehicle collision and were asked to indicate how likely they were to have thoughts or behaviors indicated in the coping style questionnaire. Subjects also completed expectation questionnaires regarding whiplash injury. Subjects (57%) held an expectation of chronic pain after whiplash injury. The mean active coping style score was 28.5±6.6 (40 is the maximum score for active coping). The mean passive coping style score was 28.5±6.6 (50 is the maximum score for passive coping). Those with high passive coping styles had a higher mean expectation score. The correlation between passive coping style score and expectation score was 0.62, while the correlation between active coping style score and expectation was -0.48. Both expectations and coping styles may interact or be co-modifiers in the outcomes of whiplash injury in whiplash victims. Further studies of coping style as an etiologic factor in the chronic whiplash syndrome are needed.

  11. Managing reality shock: Expectations versus experiences of graduate engineers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Riordan

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study is an analysis of the relationship between the work expectations and experiences of graduate engineers during their early career period. It reports on discrepancies in graduates’ expectations of the world of work and the reality of the early career stage. Conclusions include recommendations of how "reality shock" can be managed better by both organisations and individuals. Qualitative data were obtained through in-depth interviews with sixteen participants with less than five years work experience, employed in a large utility organisation in the Western Cape. Results indicate that participants experience significant incongruence between their expectations of work and work experiences.

  12. Ethical issues and societal expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metlay, D.

    2010-01-01

    Daniel Metlay (NWTRB) declared that institutions had always recognised an ethical obligation to manage high- level radioactive waste in unprecedented ways. This obligation has not only endured, but has become more explicit and multidimensional and it now subsumed under a more general rubric of 'societal expectations'. D. Metlay directed attention toward the proceedings of previous RWMC-RF workshop ', which contains five essays, authored by Kjell Andersson, Andrew Blowers, Carl-Reinhold Braakenhielm, Francois Dermange, and Patricia Fleming, that are relevant to the question of ethical issues and societal expectations. D. Metlay observed that 'societal expectations' are hard to define and thus very hard to measure. They may vary considerably with time and from country to country. As an illustration he referred to an inquiry performed by a task group 30 years ago in a document entitled 'Proposed Goals for Radioactive Waste Management' (NUREG-0300) on behalf of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Conclusions from D. Metlay are that, for the most part, societal expectations in the United States appear to be quite stable over a period of more than 30 years. In two areas, however, there are clear differences in emphasis between expectations articulated in the last few years and those recorded in 1978. (1) While then there was emphasis on the operational reliability of organisations and institutions. In particular, much care was taken to discuss the inherent limitations on bureaucratic error-correction in the future. The focus is nowadays more on bureaucratic behaviours associated with carrying out decision-making processes in the present. (2) While there is current emphasis on the importance of trust, transparency, and accountability, the NRC document may cast some doubt on the reliability of a stepwise decision-making process. In the domain of radioactive waste management, error signals are notoriously unclear, and strong disagreements over objectives and value trade

  13. Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillen, Montserrat; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni

    2005-10-01

    Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

  14. The construction of normal expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Røpke, Inge

    2008-01-01

    The gradual upward changes of standards in normal everyday life have significant environmental implications, and it is therefore important to study how these changes come about. The intention of the article is to analyze the social construction of normal expectations through a case study. The case...... concerns the present boom in bathroom renovations in Denmark, which offers an excellent opportunity to study the interplay between a wide variety of consumption drivers and social changes pointing toward long-term changes of normal expectations regarding bathroom standards. The study is problemoriented...... and transdisciplinary and draws on a wide range of sociological, anthropological, and economic theories. The empirical basis comprises a combination of statistics, a review of magazine and media coverage, visits to exhibitions, and qualitative interviews. A variety of consumption drivers are identified. Among...

  15. FRANCHISE EXPECTATIONS: CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN

    OpenAIRE

    Raissa Kaziyeva

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the article is to provide a critical review of franchising development in Kazakhstan by focusing on the relationship between the franchisor and the franchisee. We have conducted extensive research and communicated with lots of potential and existing Kazakhstani franchisors and franchisees, operating since 2003. Our findings show that the process of signing franchising agreements is quite challenging in Kazakhstan.  Thorough investigation of the differences between expectations ...

  16. Managing Media: Segmenting Media Through Consumer Expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt Eastin

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available It has long been understood that consumers are motivated to media differently. However, given the lack of comparative model analysis, this assumption is without empirical validation, and thus, the orientation of segmentation from a media management perspective is without motivational grounds. Thus, evolving the literature on media consumption, the current study develops and compares models of media segmentation within the context of use. From this study, six models of media expectancies were constructed so that motivational differences between media (i.e., local and national newspapers, network and cable television, radio, and Internet could be observed. Utilizing higher order statistical analyses the data indicates differences across a model comparison approach for media motivations. Furthermore, these differences vary across numerous demographic factors. Results afford theoretical advancement within the literature of consumer media consumption as well as provide media planners’ insight into consumer choices.

  17. Expectations and disappointments of industrial innovations

    CERN Document Server

    Halevi, Gideon

    2017-01-01

    The Integrated Manufacturing System (IMS), Group Technology, Numerical Control, and Computer Aided Design (CAD) were four outstanding innovations that were one-time milestones of scientific industrial management. This book describes the expectations and disappointments of the common pitfalls of these ingenious ideas, which leads to understanding of their gradual disappearing, and proposes a way to restore these methods for long term utility and value. The first three innovations dominated the industry till the mid-1970s. Surprisingly, the reason for them being replaced is the same: research of the “routine” was misleading regardless of its ingenuity. In the fourth case, CAD does not support CAPP (Computer Aided Process Planning) and thus Numerical Control could no longer support developments of a system such as a flexible and automated factory. However, they incorporate many features in a specific resource instead within a manufacturing system. CAD technology and machining centers remain remarkable as a s...

  18. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Jan R.; Peresetsky, Anatoly A.

    2018-01-01

    Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (over)confidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly. PMID:29375449

  19. Life Expectancy of Brazilian Neurosurgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botelho, Ricardo Vieira; Jardim Miranda, Bárbara Cristina; Nishikuni, Koshiro; Waisberg, Jaques

    2018-06-01

    Life expectancy (LE) refers to the number of years that an individual is expected to survive. Emphasis is frequently placed on the relationship between LE and the conditions under which a population lives, but fewer studies have investigated the relationship between stress factors associated with specific professions and their effects on LE. The aim of this study is to evaluate Brazilian neurosurgeons' life expectancies (BNLEs) and compare them with those of physicians (both Brazilian and foreign) from other fields, as well as with Brazilian nondoctors. The Brazilian Society of Neurosurgery death registry was used to obtain data that compared LEs from non-neurosurgeon physicians, as described in the national and international literature. BNLEs were also compared with the LEs of Brazilian citizens. Fifty-one neurosurgeons died between 2009 and 2016. All were males. The mean age at death was 68.31 ± 17.71 years. Among all-cause mortality, the breakdown was 20% cardiovascular diseases, 39% malignancies, 10% external factors, 6% gastrointestinal disorders, 12% neurologic illnesses, and 14% unknown causes. BNLE was shorter than LE of male Brazilian citizens. LE was similar among neurosurgeons and other doctors but shorter compared with Brazilian citizens. Further research is needed to provide data that can add to and confirm these results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan R. Magnus

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (overconfidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (overconfidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly.

  1. Price expectations and petroleum development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

  2. Motivation, expectations and the gender pay gap for UK graduates

    OpenAIRE

    Arnaud Chevalier

    2004-01-01

    Focussing on recent UK graduates, a wage gap of 12% is found. The unexplained component of the gap is small and a large fraction of the gap can be explained by subject choice, job characteristics, motivation and expectation variables. Motivation and expectations account for 44% of the explained gap, thus most studies over-estimate the unexplained component of the gender wage gap. Following stereotypes, women tend to be more altruistic and less career oriented than men, character traits that a...

  3. Utilities objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cousin, Y.; Fabian, H.U.

    1996-01-01

    The policy of French and german utilities is to make use of nuclear energy as a long term, competitive and environmentally friendly power supply. The world electricity generation is due to double within the next 30 years. In the next 20 to 30 years the necessity of nuclear energy will be broadly recognized. More than for most industries, to deal properly with nuclear energy requires the combination of a consistent political will, of a proper institutional framework, of strong and legitimate control authorities, of a sophisticated industry and of operators with skilled management and human resources. One of the major risk facing nuclear energy is the loss of competitiveness. This can be achieved only through the combination of an optimized design, a consistent standardization, a proper industrial partnership and a stable long term strategy. Although the existing plants in Western Europe are already very safe, the policy is clearly to enhance the safety of the next generation of nuclear plants which are designing today. The French and German utilities have chosen an evolutionary approach based on experience and proven technologies, with an enhanced defense in depth and an objective of easier operation and maintenance. The cost objective is to maintain and improve what has been achieved in the best existing power plants in both countries. This calls for rational choices and optimized design to meet the safety objectives, a strong standardization policy, short construction times, high availability and enough flexibility to enable optimization of the fuel cycle throughout the lifetime of the plants. The conceptual design phase has proven that the French and German teams from industry and from the utilities are able to pursue both the safety and the cost objectives, basing their decision on a rational approach which could be accepted by the safety authorities. (J.S.)

  4. The significance of belief and expectancy within the spiritual healing encounter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirth, D P

    1995-07-01

    Historically, traditional cultures recognized the importance of belief and expectancy within the healing encounter and created complex rituals and ceremonies designed to elicit or foster the expectancy and participation of both the healer and patient, as well as the community as a whole. This holistic approach to health care was a fundamental component in the spiritual healing rituals of virtually all traditional native cultures. The focus of the current study was to assess the impact of healer and patient expectations on mental and physical health parameters following a spiritual healing session. A pre-post methodological design which incorporated extensive psychophysiological health outcome measures along with independent medical diagnoses was utilized. The study was conducted in a northern California suburb of Marin County utilizing an American-born spiritual healer trained in the Philippines. The results indicated that there was a statistically significant difference between the pre-treatment and post-treatment scores for all fourteen dependent variables examined. The data also demonstrated a significant difference between the high versus low expectancy subjects for both patient and healer groups, as well as a significant relationship between high expectancy in patients and healer and the effectiveness of the spiritual healing encounter. The results of the study therefore suggest that high healer and patient expectancy may be important elements which can serve as both predictors as well as facilitators of the healing process. The degree of bonding or communication between the healer and patient was postulated as an important factor in this regard. Due to the fact that a majority of the conditions reported (75%) were organic disorders that would not commonly disappear within the 3 week time frame of the study, the significant results obtained suggest that spiritual healing in combination with traditional allopathic medicine may have the potential to be an

  5. Thorium utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trauger, D B [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)

    1978-01-01

    Some of the factors that provide incentive for the utilization of thorium in specific reactor types are explored and the constraints that stand in the way are pointed out. The properties of thorium and derived fuels are discussed, and test and reactor operating experience is reviewed. In addition, symbiotic systems of breeder and converter reactor are suggested as being particularly attractive systems for energy production. Throughout the discussion, the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor and Molten Salt Reactor are treated in some detail because they have been developed primarily for use with thorium fuel cycles.

  6. Japanese utilities' plutonium utilization program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuichiro.

    1996-01-01

    Japan's 10 utility companies are working and will continue to work towards establishing a fully closed nuclear fuel cycle. The key goals of which are: (1) reprocessing spent fuel; (2) recycling recovered uranium and plutonium; and (3) commercializing fast breeder technology by around the year 2030. This course of action by the Japanese electric power industry is in full accordance with Japan's national policy outlined in the government's report ''The Long-Term Program for Research, Development, and Nuclear Energy,'' which was published in June 1994. The Japanese civilian nuclear program is a long-term program that looks into the 21st century and beyond. It is quite true that sustaining the recycling option for energy security and the global environment demands a large investment. For it to be accepted by the public, safety must be the highest priority and will be pursued at a great cost if necessary. In its history, Japan has learned that as technology advances, costs will come down. The Japanese utility industry will continue investment in technology without compromising safety until the recycling option becomes more competitive with other options. This effort will be equally applied to the development of the commercial FBRs. The Japanese utility industry is confident that Japan's stable policy and strong objective to develop competitive and peaceful technology will contribute to the global economy and the environment without increasing the threat of plutonium proliferation

  7. The changing utility workforce and the evolution of utility design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saunders, A. [Autodesk Inc., (United States); Zeiss, G. [Autodesk Inc., (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    Electric utilities are experiencing an unprecedented workforce turnover as a wave of retirement approaches. The challenge for the industry is to mitigate the loss of industry knowledge and attract talented new designers and engineers. Utilities need to effectively transfer knowledge from an existing workforce with up to three decades of experience to their new hires who have very different skill levels as well as different expectations regarding design tools compared to their predecessors. Knowledge transfer from the retiring workforce to the new hires can be facilitated with rules-based design software. Easy-to-use design software with built-in validations can accelerate training. By investing in utility design software that incorporates the best elements of design processes from other industries, utilities can attract the new generation of engineers and designers to help utilities define new processes to upgrade existing infrastructure, bring online new distributed and renewable generation facilities, implement smart devices and meters, and improve customer service. 3 refs.

  8. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety.

  9. Expectation values in quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, R.D.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation is to develop new methods for calculating expectation values of field operators, in situations where particle creation is important. The goal is to apply these techniques to quantum gravity, to see if the initial singularity in the universe might be avoided in the quantum theory. Standard effective action theory is modified to produce effective field equations satisfied by the expectation value of the field in an in state, as opposed to the usual in-out amplitude. Diagrammatic rules are found for calculation of the new field equations, and are used to show that the equations are real and causal up to two loop order. The theory also provides a simple check of unitarity, which is carried out, again up to two loops. Just as the standard effective field equations can be derived by analytic continuation from a theory defined in Euclidean space, so can the modified equations be obtained from a modified contour rotation of the Euclidean theory. This result is used to prove a recent conjecture which yields a simple rule for finding the real, causal equations. The new formalism is applied to two gravitational systems. First, the stability of flat space time is studied by finding the equation satisfied by small perturbations of Minkowski space

  10. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung

    2014-01-01

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety

  11. Life Expectancy in Patients Treated for Osteoporosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Osmond, Clive; Cooper, Cyrus

    2015-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a chronic disease, carrying an elevated risk of fractures, morbidity, and death. Long-term treatment may be required, but the long-term risks with osteoporosis drugs remain incompletely understood. The competing risk of death may be a barrier to treating the oldest, yet this may...... not be rational if the risk of death is reduced by treatment. It is difficult to devise goal-directed long-term strategies for managing osteoporosis without firm information about residual life expectancy in treated patients. We conducted an observational study in Danish national registries tracking prescriptions...... for osteoporosis drugs, comorbid conditions, and deaths. We included 58,637 patients and 225,084 age- and sex-matched control subjects. Information on deaths until the end of 2013 was retrieved, providing a follow-up period of 10 to 17 years. In men younger than 80 years and women younger than 60 years...

  12. [Expectations and patient satisfaction in hospitals: construction and application of an expectation-based experience typology and its use in the management of quality and expectations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrlach, Christoph; Güntert, Bernhard

    2015-01-01

    Patient satisfaction (PS) surveys are frequently used evaluation methods to show performance from the customer's view. This approach has some fundamental deficits, especially with respect to theory, methodology and usage. Because of the significant theoretical value of the expectation confirmation/disconfirmation concept in the development of PS, an expectation-based experience typology has been developed and tested to check whether this approach could be a theoretical and practical alternative to the survey of PS. Due to the mainly cognitive-rational process of comparison between expectations and expectation fulfilment, it is easier to make changes in this stage of the process than in the subsequent stage of the development of PS that is mainly based on emotional-affective processes. The paper contains a literature review of the common concept of PS and its causal and influencing factors. Based on the theoretical part of this study, an expectation-based experience typology was developed. In the next step, the typology was subjected to exploratory testing, based on two patient surveys. In some parts of the tested typology explorative differences could be found between hospitals. Despite this rather more complex and unusual approach to expectation-based experience typology, this concept offers the chance to change conditions not only retrospectively (based on data), but also in a prospective way in terms of a "management of expectations". Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  13. Reservation wages, expected wages and unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, S; Taylor, K

    2013-01-01

    We model unemployment duration, reservation and expected wages simultaneously for individuals not in work, where wage expectations are identified via an exogenous policy shock. The policy shock increased expected wages, which were found to be positively associated with reservation wages.

  14. Great expectations: large wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Vries, E.

    2001-01-01

    This article focuses on wind turbine product development, and traces the background to wind turbines from the first generation 1.5 MW machines in 1995-6, plans for the second generation 3-5 MW class turbines to meet the expected boom in offshore wind projects, to the anticipated installation of a 4.5 MW turbine, and offshore wind projects planned for 2000-2002. The switch by the market leader Vestas to variable speed operation in 2000, the new product development and marketing strategy taken by the German Pro + Pro consultancy in their design of a 1.5 MW variable speed pitch control concept, the possible limiting of the size of turbines due to logistical difficulties, opportunities offered by air ships for large turbines, and the commissioning of offshore wind farms are discussed. Details of some 2-5 MW offshore wind turbine design specifications are tabulated

  15. Too good to be true: rhesus monkeys react negatively to better-than-expected offers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily J Knight

    Full Text Available To succeed in a dynamically changing world, animals need to predict their environments. Humans, in fact, exhibit such a strong desire for consistency that one of the most well-established findings in social psychology is the effort people make to maintain consistency among their beliefs, attitudes, and behavior. However, displeasure with unpredictability leads to a potential paradox, because a positive outcome that exceeds one's expectations often leads to increased subjective value and positive affect, not the opposite. We tested the hypothesis that two evolutionarily-conserved evaluation processes underlie goal-directed behavior: (1 consistency, concerned with prediction errors, and (2 valuation, concerned with outcome utility. Rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta viewed a food item and then were offered an identical, better, or worse food, which they could accept or reject. The monkeys ultimately accepted all offers, attesting to the influence of the valuation process. However, they were slower to accept the unexpected offers, and they exhibited aversive reactions, especially to the better-than-expected offers, repeatedly turning their heads and looking away before accepting the food item. Our findings (a provide evidence for two separable evaluation processes in primates, consistency and value assessment, (b reveal a direct relationship between consistency assessment and emotional processes, and (c show that our wariness with events that are much better than expected is shared with other social primates.

  16. Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on the Retail Trade Sector Using Survey Data from Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Puah, Chin-Hong; Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun; Jais, Mohamad

    2011-01-01

    The rational expectations hypothesis states that when people are expecting things to happen, using the available information, the predicted outcomes usually occur. This study utilized survey data provided by the Business Expectations Survey of Limited Companies to test whether forecasts of the Malaysian retail sector, based on gross revenue and capital expenditures, are rational. The empirical evidence illustrates that the decision-makers expectations in the retail sector are biased and too o...

  17. Modifier words in the financial press and investor expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosman, Ronald; Kräussl, Roman; Mirgorodskaya, Elizaveta

    2017-01-01

    We experimentally investigate the priming effect of modifier words in the news media by looking at how different formulation of news affects investor expectations and beliefs. We asked subjects to estimate the future stock price for twelve real (anonymous) listed companies. They received information

  18. Utility training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villaros, P.E.; Luxo, Armando; Bruant, Jacques

    1977-01-01

    The study of operational training systems for electro-nuclear utilities may be conducted through two different approaches. A first analytical approach consists of determining, for each position of a given organization chart, the necessary qualifications required and the corresponding complementary training to be provided. This approach applies preferentially to existing classical systems which are converted to nuclear operation with objectives of minimum structural changes and conservation of maximum efficiency. A second synthetical approach consists of determining the specific characteristics of nuclear plant operation, then, of deducting the training contingencies and the optimized organization chart of the plant, while taking into account, at each step, the parameters linked to local conditions. This last approach is studied in some detail in the present paper, taking advantage of its better suitability to the problems raised at the first stage of an electro-nuclear program development. In this respect, the possibility offered by this apprach to coordinate the training system of a given nuclear power station personnel with the overall problem of developing a skilled industrial labor force in the country, may lead to reconsideration of some usual priorities in the economy of operation of the nuclear power plant

  19. Educational Expectations and Media Cultures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Missomelius

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates themedia-supported educational resources that arecurrently under discussion, such as OERs and MOOCs. Considering the discursive connection between these formats, which is couched in terms of educational freedom and openness, the article’sthesis is that these are expectations which are placed on the media technologies themselves, andthen transferred to learning scenarios. To this end, the article will pursue such questions as: What are the learners, learning materials and learning scenarios allegedly free from or free for? What obstructive configurations should be omitted? To what extent are these characteristics which are of a nature to guaranteelearning processes in the context of lifelong learning or can these characteristics better be attributed to the media technologies themselves and the ways in which they are used? What advantages or new accentuations are promised by proponents of theeducation supplied by media technology? Which discourses provide sustenance for such implied “post-typographic educational ideals” (Giesecke 2001 and Lemke 1998? The importance to learners, teachers and decision-makers at educational institutions of being well informed as far as media is concerned is becoming increasingly apparent.

  20. CMS: Beyond all possible expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    After having retraced the entire Standard Model up to the Top, the CMS collaboration is ready to go further and continue the success of what Guido Tonelli – its spokesperson – defines as a ‘magic year’. Things evolve fast at CMS, but scientists have taken up the challenge and are ready for the future.   ‘Enthusiasm’ is the word that best describes the feeling one gets when talking to Guido Tonelli. “In just a few months we have rediscovered the Standard Model and have gone even further by producing new results for cross-sections, placing new limits on the creation of heavy masses, making studies on the excited states of quarks, and seeking new resonances. We could not have expected so much such a short space of time. It’s fantastic”, he says. “We went through the learning phase very smoothly. Our detector was very quickly ready to do real physics and we were able to start to produce results almost ...

  1. 49 CFR 218.22 - Utility employee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Utility employee. 218.22 Section 218.22... employee. (a) A utility employee shall be subject to the Hours of Service Act, and the requirements for... parts 217, 219, and 228 of this chapter. (b) A utility employee shall perform service as a member of...

  2. Sensibility and Subjectivity: Levinas’ Traumatic Subject

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashmika Pandya

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The importance of Levinas’ notions of sensibility and subjectivity are evident in the revision of phenomenological method by current phenomenologists such as Jean-Luc Marion and Michel Henry. The criticisms of key tenants of classical phenomenology, intentionality and reduction, are of a particular note. However, there are problems with Levinas’ characterization of subjectivity as essentially sensible. In “Totality and Infinity” and “Otherwise than Being”, Levinas criticizes and recasts a traditional notion of subjectivity, particularly the notion of the subject as the first and foremost rational subject. The subject in Levinas’ works is characterized more by its sensibility and affectedness than by its capacity to reason or affect its world. Levinas ties rationality to economy and suggests an alternative notion of reason that leads to his analysis of the ethical relation as the face-to-face encounter. The ‘origin’ of the social relation is located not in our capacity to know but rather in a sensibility that is diametrically opposed to the reason understood as economy. I argue that the opposition in Levinas’ thought between reason and sensibility is problematic and essentially leads to a self-conflicted subject. In fact, it would seem that violence characterizes the subject’s self-relation and, thus, is also inscribed at the base of the social relation. Rather than overcoming a problematic tendency to dualistic thought in philosophy Levinas merely reverses traditional hierarchies of reason/emotion, subject/object and self/other. 

  3. Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...

  4. Strategies for the plutonium utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zouain, D.M.; Lima, J.O.V.; Sakamoto, L.H.

    1981-11-01

    A review of the activities involving plutonium (its recycle, utilization and technological status and perspectives) is done. These informations are useful for an economic viability study for the plutonium utilization in thermal reactors (recycling) and in fast breeders reactor (FBR), trying to collect the major number of informations about these subjects. The initial phase describes the present status and projections of plutonium accumulation and requirements. Then, the technological process are described and some strategies are analyzed. (E.G.) [pt

  5. Response Expectancy and the Placebo Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Irving

    2018-01-01

    In this chapter, I review basic tenets of response expectancy theory (Kirsch, 1985), beginning with the important distinction between response expectancies and stimulus expectancies. Although both can affect experience, the effects of response expectancies are stronger and more resistant to extinction than those of stimulus expectancies. Further, response expectancies are especially important to understanding placebo effects. The response expectancy framework is consistent with and has been amplified by the Bayesian model of predictive coding. Clinical implications of these phenomena are exemplified. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Reactor utilization, Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinc, R.; Stanic, A.

    1981-01-01

    The reactor operating plan for 1981 was subject to the needs of testing operation with the 80% enriched fuel and was fulfilled on the whole. This annex includes data about reactor operation, review of shorter interruptions due to demands of the experiments, data about safety shutdowns caused by power cuts. Period of operation at low power levels was used mostly for activation analyses, and the operation at higher power levels were used for testing and regular isotope production. Detailed data about samples activation are included as well as utilization of the reactor as neutron source and the operating plan for 1982 [sr

  7. Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher D Carroll

    2002-01-01

    Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional foreca...

  8. Predictions of dental pain: the fear of any expected evil, is worse than the evil itself.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arntz, A; van Eck, M; Heijmans, M

    1990-01-01

    In a study of 40 subjects, who twice underwent extensive dental treatment, the relationships between expectations and experiences of pain and of anxiety were investigated. Inaccurate expectations were adjusted in the same way as observed in the laboratory. Especially anxious subjects expected more pain and anxiety than they experienced, and they appeared to need more experiences before their predictions became accurate. In the course of time, the expectations (and memories) of anxious subjects returned to their original more inaccurate level of prediction. The results suggest that the old schema is ultimately reinstated if disconfirmations are few and far between. Anxious subjects did not experience more pain, but they did experience more anxiety than fearless subjects. Detailed investigation of processes of change after disconfirmation showed that anxiety experienced during treatment is a factor that plays a part in maintaining the problem of inaccurate expectations and fear of treatment. Theoretical and clinical implications of these findings are discussed.

  9. Evolving expectations from international organisations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz Lopez, C.

    2008-01-01

    The author stated that implementation of the geological disposal concept requires a strategy that provides national decision makers with sufficient confidence in the level of long-term safety and protection ultimately achieved. The concept of protection against harm has a broader meaning than radiological protection in terms of risk and dose. It includes the protection of the environment and socio-economic interests of communities. She recognised that a number of countries have established regulatory criteria already, and others are now discussing what constitutes a proper regulatory test and suitable time frame for judging the safety of long-term disposal. Each regulatory programme seeks to define reasonable tests of repository performance, using protection criteria and safety approaches consistent with the culture, values and expectations of the citizens of the country concerned. This means that there are differences in how protection and safety are addressed in national approaches to regulation and in the bases used for that. However, as was recognised in the Cordoba Workshop, it would be important to reach a minimum level of consistency and be able to explain the differences. C. Ruiz-Lopez presented an overview of the development of international guidance from ICRP, IAEA and NEA from the Cordoba workshop up to now, and positions of independent National Advisory Bodies. The evolution of these guidelines over time demonstrates an evolving understanding of long-term implications, with the recognition that dose and risk constraints should not be seen as measures of detriment beyond a few hundred years, the emphasis on sound engineering practices, and the introduction of new concepts and approaches which take into account social and economical aspects (e.g. constrained optimisation, BAT, managerial principles). In its new recommendations, ICRP (draft 2006) recognizes. in particular, that decision making processes may depend on other societal concerns and considers

  10. Illusory expectations can affect retrieval-monitoring accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonough, Ian M; Gallo, David A

    2012-03-01

    The present study investigated how expectations, even when illusory, can affect the accuracy of memory decisions. Participants studied words presented in large or small font for subsequent memory tests. Replicating prior work, judgments of learning indicated that participants expected to remember large words better than small words, even though memory for these words was equivalent on a standard test of recognition memory and subjective judgments. Critically, we also included tests that instructed participants to selectively search memory for either large or small words, thereby allowing different memorial expectations to contribute to performance. On these tests we found reduced false recognition when searching memory for large words relative to small words, such that the size illusion paradoxically affected accuracy measures (d' scores) in the absence of actual memory differences. Additional evidence for the role of illusory expectations was that (a) the accuracy effect was obtained only when participants searched memory for the aspect of the stimuli corresponding to illusory expectations (size instead of color) and (b) the accuracy effect was eliminated on a forced-choice test that prevented the influence of memorial expectations. These findings demonstrate the critical role of memorial expectations in the retrieval-monitoring process. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

  11. Harm expectancy violation during exposure therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Kleine, Rianne A; Hendriks, Lotte; Becker, Eni S; Broekman, Theo G; van Minnen, Agnes

    2017-06-01

    Exposure therapy has proven efficacy in the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Emotional processing theory proposes that fear habituation is a central mechanism in symptom reduction, but the empirical evidence supporting this is mixed. Recently it has been proposed that violation of harm expectancies is a crucial mechanism of action in exposure therapy. But to date, changes in harm expectancies have not been examined during exposure therapy in PTSD. The goal of the current study was to examine harm expectancy violation as mechanism of change in exposure therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Patients (N=50, 44 female) with a primary diagnosis of chronic PTSD received intensive exposure therapy. Harm expectancies, harm experiences and subjective units of distress (SUDs) were assessed at each imaginal exposure session, and PTSD symptoms were assessed pre- and posttreatment with the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS). Results showed that harm expectancies were violated within and strongly declined in-between exposure therapy sessions. However, expectancy violation was not related to PTSD symptom change. Fear habituation measures were moderately related to PTSD symptom reductions. In line with theory, exposure therapy promotes expectancy violation in PTSD patients, but this is not related to exposure therapy outcome. More work is warranted to investigate mechanisms of change during exposure therapy in PTSD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Strategic Risk Management Behavior: What Can Utility Functions Tell Us

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract The validity of the utility concept, particularly in an expected utility framework, has been questioned because of its inability to predict revealed behavior. In this paper we focus on the global shape of the utility function instead of the local shape of the utility function. We examine

  13. Multicultural Differences in Women's Expectations of Birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Marianne F

    2016-01-01

    This review surveyed qualitative and quantitative studies to explore the expectations around birth that are held by women from different cultures. These studies are grouped according to expectations of personal control expectations of support from partner/others/family; expectations of carel behavior from providers such as nurses, doctors, and/or midwives; expectations about the health of the baby; and expectations about pain in childbirth. Discussed are the findings and the role that Western culture in medicine, power and privilege are noted in providing care to these women.

  14. Fiscal Effectiveness and Debt Illusion in a Rational Expectations Model

    OpenAIRE

    Basil A. DALAMAGAS

    1993-01-01

    The question of how substitution of debt for taxes affects private sector wealth and consumption has long been an unresolved macroeconomic theory and policy dispute. The present study attempts to address this problem within a modified fiscal-illusion setting, by utilizing an explicit rational expectations optimizing model of consumer behaviour for a sample of six developed countries. The empirical evidence presented is strongly supportive of the assertion that consumers make their consumption...

  15. Swedish medical students' expectations of their future life.

    OpenAIRE

    Diderichsen, S.; Andersson, J.; Johansson, E.E.; Verdonk, P.; Lagro-Janssen, T.; Hamberg, K.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate future life expectations among male and female medical students in their first and final year. Methods: The study was cross-sectional and conducted at a Swedish medical school. Out of 600 invited students, 507 (85%) answered an open-ended question about their future life, 298 (59%) first-year students and 209 (41%) last-year students. Women constituted 60% of the respondents. A mixed model design was applied; qualitative content analysis was utilized to create stati...

  16. Use of Groundwater Lifetime Expectancy for the Performance Assessment of Deep Geologic Radioactive Waste Repositories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornaton, F.; Park, Y.; Normani, S.; Sudicky, E.; Sykes, J.

    2005-12-01

    Long-term solutions for the disposal of toxic wastes usually involve isolation of the wastes in a deep subsurface geologic environment. In the case of spent nuclear fuel, the safety of the host repository depends on two main barriers: the engineered barrier and the natural geological barrier. If radionuclide leakage occurs from the engineered barrier, the geological medium represents the ultimate barrier that is relied upon to ensure safety. Consequently, an evaluation of radionuclide travel times from the repository to the biosphere is critically important in a performance assessment analysis. In this study, we develop a travel time framework based on the concept of groundwater lifetime expectancy as a safety indicator. Lifetime expectancy characterizes the time radionuclides will spend in the subsurface after their release from the repository and prior to discharging into the biosphere. The probability density function of lifetime expectancy is computed throughout the host rock by solving the backward-in-time solute transport equation subject to a properly posed set of boundary conditions. It can then be used to define optimal repository locations. In a second step, the risk associated with selected sites can be evaluated by simulating an appropriate contaminant release history. The proposed methodology is applied in the context of a typical Canadian Shield environment. Based on a statistically-generated three-dimension network of fracture zones embedded in the granitic host rock, the sensitivity and the uncertainty of lifetime expectancy to the hydraulic and dispersive properties of the fracture network, including the impact of conditioning via their surface expressions, is computed in order to demonstrate the utility of the methodology.

  17. Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehrmann, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

    2017-01-01

    situation, their purchasing attitudes, and their expectations about the macroeconomy. Respondents with current or expected financial difficulties and those with pessimistic attitudes about major purchases, income developments, or unemployment have a stronger upward bias than other households. However...

  18. Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assenza, Tiziana; Bao, Te; Hommes, Cars; Massaro, Domenico; Duffy, John

    Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the

  19. Interest rate rules with heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2011-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless DSGE model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations and

  20. Price Changes, Resource Adjustments and Rational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Kira

    This study investigates the relationship between the accuracy of managerial demand expectations, resource adjustment decisions and selling price changes. In line with rational expectation theory, it is argued that managers adjust resources and selling prices differently in response to expected...... that cost elasticity is higher when a demand decrease is expected among companies with similar exposure to demand uncertainty. Overall, this implies that managerial competences in predicting future demand significantly determines firms’ profitability; especially when demand uncertainty is high...

  1. RTNS-II utilization plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zwilsky, Klaus M.

    1978-09-01

    This plan describes a general program for the effective utilization of this resource by the fusion materials community. Because its flux is low relative to levels expected in commercial fusion reactors, the RINS-II is not expected to produce data of direct engineering significance (with some exceptions). Rather, it will be used chiefly to aid in the development of models of high energy neutron effects. Such models are needed in projecting engineering data obtained in high flux fission reactors to the fusion environment. Fission reactors, because of their relatively soft neutron spectra, cannot produce the high ratio of transmutations to displacements (except in an important special case) or the high energy recoil atoms appropriate to fusion reactors utilizing the D-T reaction.

  2. Expectancies as core features of mental disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rief, Winfried; Glombiewski, Julia A; Gollwitzer, Mario; Schubö, Anna; Schwarting, Rainer; Thorwart, Anna

    2015-09-01

    Expectancies are core features of mental disorders, and change in expectations is therefore one of the core mechanisms of treatment in psychiatry. We aim to improve our understanding of expectancies by summarizing factors that contribute to their development, persistence, and modification. We pay particular attention to the issue of persistence of expectancies despite experiences that contradict them. Based on recent research findings, we propose a new model for expectation persistence and expectation change. When expectations are established, effects are evident in neural and other biological systems, for example, via anticipatory reactions, different biological reactions to expected versus unexpected stimuli, etc. Psychological 'immunization' and 'assimilation', implicit self-confirming processes, and stability of biological processes help us to better understand why expectancies persist even in the presence of expectation violations. Learning theory, attentional processes, social influences, and biological determinants contribute to the development, persistence, and modification of expectancies. Psychological interventions should focus on optimizing expectation violation to achieve optimal treatment outcome and to avoid treatment failures.

  3. Expectancies as a Determinant of Interference Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasher, Lynn; Greenberg, Michael

    1977-01-01

    One version, by Lockhart, Craik, and Jacoby, of a levels-of-processing model of memory asserts the importance of the role of expectancies about forthcoming information in determining the elaborateness of a memory trace. Confirmed expectancies result in less-elaborated memory traces; disconfirmed expectancies result in elaborate memory traces.…

  4. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  5. Parental Expectations of Their Adolescents' Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatar, Moshe; Horenczyk, Gabriel

    2000-01-01

    Examines parental expectations of their children's teachers through use of the Expectations of Teachers questionnaire. Participating parents (N=765) reported greater expectations for help and assistance, followed by teaching competence and fairness on the part of the teacher. Mothers were found to hold higher fairness, help, and assistance…

  6. Role Of Expectancy Manipulation In Systematic Desensitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, H. Alan

    1973-01-01

    Expectancy, relaxation, and hierarchy content were manipulated. Findings did not support the hypothesis that expectancy was the only factor in desensitization, but did clarify the role of expectancy vis-a-vis the counterconditioning elements typically discussed in the literature. (Author)

  7. Childbirth expectations and correlates at the final stage of pregnancy in Chinese expectant parents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian Zhang

    2014-06-01

    Conclusion: This study adds to understanding of the childbirth expectations of Chinese expectant parents. It is suggested that maternity healthcare providers pay close attention to the childbirth expectations of expectant parents, and improve the nursing care service to promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction of expectant parents.

  8. FAIR VALUE: UTILITY AND LIMITS

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Gabriel Cristea

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the utility and the limits of the fair value. We believe that any new product must be tried and tested before being imposed on the market and must be accepted by all potential users and those who will be affected, directly or indirectly and its advantages, disadvantages, risks, its cost must be predetermined and analyzed in a comprehensive and objective.We ask: Do financial statements at fair value meet users' expectations? The requirement to use fair value pricing mode...

  9. Expected usability is not a valid indicator of experienced usability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meinald T. Thielsch

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Usability is a core construct of website evaluation and inherently defined as interactive. Yet, when analysing first impressions of websites, expected usability, i.e., before use, is of interest. Here we investigate to what extend ratings of expected usability are related to (a experienced usability, i.e., ratings after use, and (b objective usability measures, i.e., task performance. Furthermore, we try to elucidate how ratings of expected usability are correlated to aesthetic judgments. In an experiment, 57 participants submitted expected usability ratings after the presentation of website screenshots in three viewing-time conditions (50, 500, and 10,000 ms and after an interactive task (experienced usability. Additionally, objective usability measures (task completion and duration and subjective aesthetics evaluations were recorded for each website. The results at both the group and individual level show that expected usability ratings are not significantly related either to experienced usability or objective usability measures. Instead, they are highly correlated with aesthetics ratings. Taken together, our results highlight the need for interaction in empirical website usability testing, even when exploring very early usability impressions. In our study, user ratings of expected usability were no valid proxy neither for objective usability nor for experienced website usability.

  10. Evaluation of actual vs expected photodynamic therapy spot size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranchod, Tushar M; Brucker, Alexander J; Liu, Chengcheng; Cukras, Catherine A; Hopkins, Tim B; Ying, Gui-Shuang

    2009-05-01

    To determine the accuracy of the photodynamic therapy (PDT) laser spot size on the retina as generated by 2 Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved lasers. Prospective observational case series. Fundus photographs were taken of 1 eye of each of 10 subjects with the WinStation 4000 fundus photography system (OIS; Ophthalmic Imaging Systems, Sacramento, California, USA); disc size was calculated using OIS software. Slit-lamp photographs were taken of the PDT laser spot focused on the retina adjacent to the optic disc, using various spot sizes in combination with 3 different contact lenses and 2 different lasers. Spot size at the retina was determined by measuring the ratio of disc diameter to spot diameter in Adobe Photoshop (San Jose, California, USA) and applying this ratio to the OIS disc measurements. Spot size at the retina averaged 87% of expected spot size for the Coherent Opal laser (Coherent Inc, Santa Clara, California, USA) and 104% of expected spot size for the Zeiss Visulas laser (Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc, Dublin, California, USA)(P = .002). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that percentage of expected spot size decreased with larger spot diameter (P = .01 for Coherent laser; P = .02 for Zeiss laser). PDT spot size at the retina appears to be consistently smaller than expected for the Coherent laser while the spot size was consistently within 10% of expected size for the Zeiss laser. The deviation from expected size increased with larger spot size using the Coherent laser.

  11. A subjective scheduler for subjective dedicated networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suherman; Fakhrizal, Said Reza; Al-Akaidi, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Multiple access technique is one of important techniques within medium access layer in TCP/IP protocol stack. Each network technology implements the selected access method. Priority can be implemented in those methods to differentiate services. Some internet networks are dedicated for specific purpose. Education browsing or tutorial video accesses are preferred in a library hotspot, while entertainment and sport contents could be subjects of limitation. Current solution may use IP address filter or access list. This paper proposes subjective properties of users or applications are used for priority determination in multiple access techniques. The NS-2 simulator is employed to evaluate the method. A video surveillance network using WiMAX is chosen as the object. Subjective priority is implemented on WiMAX scheduler based on traffic properties. Three different traffic sources from monitoring video: palace, park, and market are evaluated. The proposed subjective scheduler prioritizes palace monitoring video that results better quality, xx dB than the later monitoring spots.

  12. Placebo expectancy effects in the relationship between glucose and cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, M W; Taylor, M A; Elliman, N A; Rhodes, O

    2001-08-01

    The present study investigated the extent of expectancy in the ability of glucose to affect cognitive performance. Using a within-subjects design, subjects (n 26) completed four experimental sessions (in counterbalanced order and after an initial practice session) during which they were given a 500 ml drink 30 min prior to completing a cognitive assessment battery. In addition, all subjects completed a baseline practice session during which they were given no drink. During two of the sessions, subjects were given a drink containing 50 g glucose and on the other two they were given a drink containing aspartame. A balanced placebo design was used, such that for half the sessions subjects were accurately informed as to the content of the drink (glucose or aspartame), whereas in the other two sessions they were misinformed as to the content of the drink. The task battery comprised a 6 min visual analogue of the Bakan vigilance task, an immediate verbal free-recall task, an immediate verbal recognition memory task and a measure of motor speed (two-finger tapping). Blood glucose and self-reported mood were also recorded at several time points during each session. Glucose administration was found to improve recognition memory times, in direct contrast to previous findings in the literature. Glucose administration also improved performance on the Bakan task (relative to the control drink), but only in sessions where subjects were informed that they would receive glucose and not when they were told that they would receive aspartame. There were no effects either of the nature of the drink or expectancy on the other measures. These results are interpreted in terms of there being some contribution of expectancy concerning the positive effects of glucose on cognition in studies which have not used an equi-sweet dose of aspartame as a control drink.

  13. Citizen Expectations and Satisfaction Over Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjortskov, Morten

    2018-01-01

    Expectations are thought to affect how citizens form their attitudes and behavior toward public services. Such attitudes may include citizen satisfaction, where expectations play a fundamental role, and relevant behaviors include choice of services and the decision to voice opinions about them....... However, there are few investigations into what drives citizen expectations and even fewer that consider these relationships across time. This article tests whether prior expectations, perceived performance, and citizen satisfaction influence future expectations, using a unique dataset that follows...... individual citizens across two subsequent school satisfaction surveys from 2011 and 2013. The results show that prior expectations have a large and consistent influence on future expectations, as predicted by the literature, whereas the influence from prior perceived performance seems less consistent. Prior...

  14. Subjective Life Horizon and Portfolio Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Spaenjers , Christophe; Spira, Sven Michael

    2013-01-01

    Using data from a U.S. household survey, we examine the empirical relation between subjective life horizon (i.e., the self-reported expectation of remaining life span) and portfolio choice. We find that equity portfolio shares are higher for investors with longer horizons, ceteris paribus, in line with theoretical predictions. This result is robust to controlling for optimism and health status, accounting for the endogeneity of equity market participation, or instrumenting subjective life hor...

  15. Ethics, rhetoric, and expectations: responsibilities and obligations of health care systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, Thomas

    2014-09-01

    Health care organization foundations and other fund-raising departments often function at an arm's length from the system at large. As such, operations related to their mandate to raise funds and market the organization do not receive the same level of ethical scrutiny brought to bear on other arms within the organization. An area that could benefit from a more focused ethics lens is the use of language and rhetoric employed in order to raise funds and market the organization. Such departments and divisions often utilize overblown promises of miracles and extraordinary advances to convince donors to contribute and to persuade the general public. The result can be a heightened sense of expectation on the part of patients, their families, and the general public as to what can realistically be achieved by the health care system, leading to disappointment and conflict when these expectations are not or cannot be met. This article suggests that such advertising and marketing be subject to the same advertising standards as other businesses.

  16. Pressurizing the STEM Pipeline: an Expectancy-Value Theory Analysis of Youths' STEM Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Christopher; Huang, Kuo-Ting; Cotten, Shelia R.; Rikard, R. V.

    2017-08-01

    Over the past decade, there has been a strong national push to increase minority students' positive attitudes towards STEM-related careers. However, despite this focus, minority students have remained underrepresented in these fields. Some researchers have directed their attention towards improving the STEM pipeline which carries students through our educational system and into STEM careers. Previous research has shown that expectancy-value theory (EVT) is useful for examining the short-term as well as long-term academic motivations and intentions of elementary age minority students. These findings provide insights into ways we may be able to potentially "patch" particular STEM pipeline leaks. In the current study, we advance this research by using EVT as a framework to examine the STEM attitudes of young students directly. We hypothesize that students' academic-related expectancies for success and subjective task values will be associated with an increase in STEM attitudes. Data for this study was gathered over the course of a large-scale computing intervention which sought to increase students' STEM interest. This computing intervention took place in an urban elementary school district located within the southeastern USA. Results from this study indicate that both intrinsic values and utility values predict students' STEM attitudes but they influence attitudes related to the various dimensions of STEM differently. These findings demonstrate that EVT provides a useful framework, which can be integrated into future computing interventions, to help encourage positive STEM attitudes in young children, thus increasing the internal pressure (or flow) within the STEM pipeline.

  17. Utility guidance to advanced LWR designers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yedidia, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe the process envisioned for the development of advanced reactors for future use by the utility industry. The role of the potential utility customer is gradually evolving from that of an owner-operator of such plants to that of a sponsor-participant in the actual design process. The author discusses development of a set of utility requirements, intended to describe in detail utility needs and expectations relative to the performance of future reactors. The reactor vendors, who participated actively in the preparation of the requirements documents, pledged to make every effort to meet them in their future designs. At that stage, when the requirements have been finalized and agreed to by all parties involved, including the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the utilities were expected to move to the sidelines and wait for the reactor vendors to come up with the product

  18. Understanding initial undergraduate expectations and identity in computing studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnunen, Päivi; Butler, Matthew; Morgan, Michael; Nylen, Aletta; Peters, Anne-Kathrin; Sinclair, Jane; Kalvala, Sara; Pesonen, Erkki

    2018-03-01

    There is growing appreciation of the importance of understanding the student perspective in Higher Education (HE) at both institutional and international levels. This is particularly important in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics subjects such as Computer Science (CS) and Engineering in which industry needs are high but so are student dropout rates. An important factor to consider is the management of students' initial expectations of university study and career. This paper reports on a study of CS first-year students' expectations across three European countries using qualitative data from student surveys and essays. Expectation is examined from both short-term (topics to be studied) and long-term (career goals) perspectives. Tackling these issues will help paint a picture of computing education through students' eyes and explore their vision of its and their role in society. It will also help educators prepare students more effectively for university study and to improve the student experience.

  19. [Utilities: a solution of a decision problem?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koller, Michael; Ohmann, Christian; Lorenz, Wilfried

    2008-01-01

    Utility is a concept that originates from utilitarianism, a highly influential philosophical school in the Anglo-American world. The cornerstone of utilitarianism is the principle of maximum happiness or utility. In the medical sciences, this utility approach has been adopted and developed within the field of medical decision making. On an operational level, utility is the evaluation of a health state or an outcome on a one-dimensional scale ranging from 0 (death) to 1 (perfect health). By adding the concept of expectancy, the graphic representation of both concepts in a decision tree results in the specification of expected utilities and helps to resolve complex medical decision problems. Criticism of the utility approach relates to the rational perspective on humans (which is rejected by a considerable fraction of research in psychology) and to the artificial methods used in the evaluation of utility, such as Standard Gamble or Time Trade Off. These may well be the reason why the utility approach has never been accepted in Germany. Nevertheless, innovative concepts for defining goals in health care are urgently required, as the current debate in Germany on "Nutzen" (interestingly translated as 'benefit' instead of as 'utility') and integrated outcome models indicates. It remains to be seen whether this discussion will lead to a re-evaluation of the utility approach.

  20. The European Utility Requirement Document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, I.I.

    1999-01-01

    The major European electricity producers work on a common requirement document for future LWR plants since 1992. They aim at requirements acceptable together by the owners, the public and the authorities. Thus the designers can develop standard LWR designs acceptable everywhere in Europe and the utilities can open their consultations to vendors on common bases. Such a standardisation promotes an improvement of generation costs and of safety : public and authorities acceptance should be improved as well ; significant savings are expected in development and construction costs. Since the early stages of the project, the EUR group has grown significantly. It now includes utilities from nine European countries. Utilities from two other European countries are joining the group. Specific cooperation agreements are also in progress with a few extra-European partners

  1. Misconceptions and false expectations in neutral evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARLOS Y. VALENZUELA

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Neutral evolution results from random recurrent mutation and genetic drift. A small part of random evolution, that which is related to protein or DNA polymorphisms, is the subject of the Neutral Theory of Evolution. One of the foundations of this theory is the demonstration that the mutation rate (m is equal to the substitution rate. Since both rates are independent of population size, they are independent of drift, which is dependent upon population size. Neutralists have erroneously equated the substitution rate with the fixation rate, despite the fact that they are antithetical conceptions. The neutralists then applied the random walk stochastic model to justify alleles or bases that were fixated or eliminated. In this model, once the allele or base frequencies reach the monomorphic states (values of 1.0 or 0.0, the absorbing barriers, they can no longer return to the polymorphic state. This operates in a pure mathematical model. If recurrent mutation occurs (as in biotic real systems fixation and elimination are impossible. A population of bacteria in which m=10-8 base mutation (or substitution/site/generation and the reproduction rate is 1000 cell cycle/year should replace all its genome bases in approximately 100,000 years. The expected situation for all sites is polymorphism for the four bases rather than monomorphism at 1.0 or 0.0 frequencies. If fixation and elimination of a base for more than 500,000 years are impossible, then most of the neutral theory is untenable. A new complete neutral model, which allows for recurrent substitutions, is proposed here based on recurrent mutation or substitution and drift alone. The model fits a binomial or Poisson distribution and not a geometric one, as does neutral theory.

  2. Mental health expectancy--the European perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jagger, C; Ritchie, K; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    The increase in life expectancy observed over the last decade has particular relevance for mental health conditions of old age, such as dementia. Although mental disorders have been estimated to be responsible for 60% of all disabilities, until recently population health indicators such as health...... expectancies have concentrated on calculating disability-free life expectancy based on physical functioning. In 1994, a European Network for the Calculation of Health Expectancies (Euro-REVES) was established, one of its aims being the development and promotion of mental health expectancies. Such indicators...... may have an important role in monitoring future changes in the mental health of populations and predicting service needs. This article summarizes the proceedings and recommendations of the first European Conference on Mental Health Expectancy....

  3. The effects of caffeine and expectancy on attention and memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oei, Adam; Hartley, Laurence R

    2005-04-01

    The present study contrasted caffeine's effects on individuals who expect caffeine to stimulate them and those who do not. Secondly, whether a message that caffeine rather than placebo was administered would also affect these two groups of subjects differently was investigated. The study was conducted single-blind in a 2x2x2 mixed design. The between subjects factor was whether they expected caffeine to stimulate them (E+) or not (E-) according to their self reports obtained before the experiment began. The within subjects factors were message (told caffeine vs told placebo) and beverage type (given caffeine vs placebo). Sixteen subjects in each group (n=32) performed on signal detection, memory scanning and delayed free recall tasks following ingestion of either caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee on two sessions each, a total of four experimental sessions. On each session, subjects were given a message regarding their drink (told caffeine vs told placebo). However, on two sessions there was a mismatch between the message and drink given. For signal detection, performance under caffeine was better than placebo in the E+ but not the E- group. However, subjects in the E+ group did not benefit more than the E- group in either message condition. On memory scanning, detections and false alarms did not differ for either beverage, nor was there a differential finding in the E+ and E- groups. However, reaction time under caffeine condition was shorter. No effects of message were found. Caffeine and message also did not have any effect on performance on the delayed free recall task. The hypothesis that caffeine and message would affect E+ and E- subjects differentially was partly supported. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    2011-01-01

    expectations about inflation, output growth, and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields. Estimates from a forward-looking monetary policy rule suggest that the central bank exhibits a preemptive response to inflationary expectations...... of this type may provide traders and policymakers with a new set of tools for formally assessing the reaction of bond yields to shifts in market expectations...

  5. Heterogeneous inflation expectations, learning, and market outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for heterogeneity in both private information and updating. Our model vastly outperforms existing models of inflation expectations in explaining the heterogeneity in the data. We find that women, ethnic mino...

  6. Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe BACCHETTA; Eric VAN WINCOOP

    2004-01-01

    We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. Higher order expectations add an additional term to a standard asset pricing equation. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact on the equilibrium price. In the context of a dynamic noisy r...

  7. Beyond Bentham – Measuring Procedural Utility

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno S. Frey; Alois Stutzer

    2001-01-01

    We propose that outcome utility and process utility can be distinguished and empirically measured. People gain procedural utility from participating in the political decision-making process itself, irrespective of the outcome. Nationals enjoy both outcome and process utility, while foreigners are excluded from political decision-making and therefore cannot enjoy the corresponding procedural utility. Utility is measured by individuals’ reported subjective well-being or happiness. We find tha...

  8. Manual for subject analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This document is one in a series of publications known as the ETDE/INIS Joint Reference Series and also constitutes a part of the ETDE Procedures Manual. It presents the rules, guidelines and procedures to be adopted by centers submitting input to the International Nuclear Information System (INIS) or the Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDE). It is a manual for the subject analysis part of input preparation, meaning the selection, subject classification, abstracting and subject indexing of relevant publications, and is to be used in conjunction with the Thesauruses, Subject Categories documents and the documents providing guidelines for the preparation of abstracts. The concept and structure of the new manual are intended to describe in a logical and efficient sequence all the steps comprising the subject analysis of documents to be reported to INIS or ETDE. The manual includes new chapters on preparatory analysis, subject classification, abstracting and subject indexing, as well as rules, guidelines, procedures, examples and a special chapter on guidelines and examples for subject analysis in particular subject fields. (g.t.; a.n.)

  9. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  10. PSA, subjective probability and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarotti, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    PSA is the natural way to making decisions in face of uncertainty relative to potentially dangerous plants; subjective probability, subjective utility and Bayes statistics are the ideal tools for carrying out a PSA. This paper reports that in order to support this statement the various stages of the PSA procedure are examined in detail and step by step the superiority of Bayes techniques with respect to sampling theory machinery is proven

  11. On the evaluation of marginal expected shortfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caporin, Massimiliano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2012-01-01

    In the analysis of systemic risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall may be considered to evaluate the marginal impact of a single stock on the market Expected Shortfall. These quantities are generally computed using log-returns, in particular when there is also a focus on returns conditional distribution....... In this case, the market log-return is only approximately equal to the weighed sum of equities log-returns. We show that the approximation error is large during turbulent market phases, with a subsequent impact on Marginal Expected Shortfall. We then suggest how to improve the evaluation of Marginal Expected...

  12. Gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trifon I. Missov

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The gamma-Gompertz multiplicative frailty model is the most common parametric modelapplied to human mortality data at adult and old ages. The resulting life expectancy hasbeen calculated so far only numerically. OBJECTIVE Properties of the gamma-Gompertz distribution have not been thoroughly studied. The focusof the paper is to shed light onto its first moment or, demographically speaking, characterizelife expectancy resulting from a gamma-Gompertz force of mortality. The paperprovides an exact formula for gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth and a simplerhigh-accuracy approximation that can be used in practice for computational convenience.In addition, the article compares actual (life-table to model-based (gamma-Gompertzlife expectancy to assess on aggregate how many years of life expectancy are not captured(or overestimated by the gamma-Gompertz mortality mechanism. COMMENTS A closed-form expression for gamma-Gomeprtz life expectancy at birth contains a special(the hypergeometric function. It aids assessing the impact of gamma-Gompertz parameterson life expectancy values. The paper shows that a high-accuracy approximation canbe constructed by assuming an integer value for the shape parameter of the gamma distribution.A historical comparison between model-based and actual life expectancy forSwedish females reveals a gap that is decreasing to around 2 years from 1950 onwards.Looking at remaining life expectancies at ages 30 and 50, we see this gap almost disappearing.

  13. Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

  14. The role of multisensory interplay in enabling temporal expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Felix; Michels, Lara E; Thiele, Carsten; Noesselt, Toemme

    2018-01-01

    Temporal regularities can guide our attention to focus on a particular moment in time and to be especially vigilant just then. Previous research provided evidence for the influence of temporal expectation on perceptual processing in unisensory auditory, visual, and tactile contexts. However, in real life we are often exposed to a complex and continuous stream of multisensory events. Here we tested - in a series of experiments - whether temporal expectations can enhance perception in multisensory contexts and whether this enhancement differs from enhancements in unisensory contexts. Our discrimination paradigm contained near-threshold targets (subject-specific 75% discrimination accuracy) embedded in a sequence of distractors. The likelihood of target occurrence (early or late) was manipulated block-wise. Furthermore, we tested whether spatial and modality-specific target uncertainty (i.e. predictable vs. unpredictable target position or modality) would affect temporal expectation (TE) measured with perceptual sensitivity (d ' ) and response times (RT). In all our experiments, hidden temporal regularities improved performance for expected multisensory targets. Moreover, multisensory performance was unaffected by spatial and modality-specific uncertainty, whereas unisensory TE effects on d ' but not RT were modulated by spatial and modality-specific uncertainty. Additionally, the size of the temporal expectation effect, i.e. the increase in perceptual sensitivity and decrease of RT, scaled linearly with the likelihood of expected targets. Finally, temporal expectation effects were unaffected by varying target position within the stream. Together, our results strongly suggest that participants quickly adapt to novel temporal contexts, that they benefit from multisensory (relative to unisensory) stimulation and that multisensory benefits are maximal if the stimulus-driven uncertainty is highest. We propose that enhanced informational content (i.e. multisensory

  15. Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

  16. Utility and performance relative to consumer product energy efficiency standards. Final technical report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coggins, J.L.

    1979-12-14

    An investigation of the relative utility and performance of nine major household consumer products covered by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act is summarized. The objective was to define the terms utility and performance, to recommend methods for quantifying these two concepts, and to recommend an approach for dealing with utility and performance issues in the energy efficiency standards program. The definitions developed are: performance of a consumer product is the objective measure of how well, with the expected level of consumer input (following the manufacturer's instructions for installation and operation), the product does its intended job; and utility of a consumer product is a subjective measure, based on the consumer's perception, of the capability of the product to satisfy human needs. Quantification is based on test procedures and consumer survey methods which are largely already in use by industry. Utility and performance issues are important in product classification for prescribing energy efficiency standards. The recommended approach to utility and performance issues and classification is: prior to setting standards, evaluate utility and performance issues in the most quantitative way allowed by resources and schedules in order to develop classification guidelines. This approach requires no changes in existing Department of Energy test procedures.

  17. Subjective poverty line definitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Flik; B.M.S. van Praag (Bernard)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we will deal with definitions of subjective poverty lines. To measure a poverty threshold value in terms of household income, which separates the poor from the non-poor, we take into account the opinions of all people in society. Three subjective methods will be discussed

  18. Children's motivation in elementary physical education: an expectancy-value model of achievement choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin; Solmon, Melinda

    2003-03-01

    This study examined children's motivation in elementary physical education within an expectancy-value model developed by Eccles and her colleagues. Four hundred fourteen students in second and fourth grades completed questionnaires assessing their expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values, and intention for future participation in physical education. Results indicated that expectancy-related beliefs and subjective task values were clearly distinguishable from one another across physical education and throwing. The two constructs were related to each other positively. Children's intention for future participation in physical education was positively associated with their subjective task values and/or expectancy-related beliefs. Younger children had higher motivation for learning in physical education than older children. Gender differences emerged and the findings provided empirical evidence supporting the validity of the expectancy-value model in elementary physical education.

  19. Hualapai Tribal Utility Development Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hualapai Tribal Nation

    2008-05-25

    The first phase of the Hualapai Tribal Utility Development Project (Project) studied the feasibility of establishing a tribally operated utility to provide electric service to tribal customers at Grand Canyon West (see objective 1 below). The project was successful in completing the analysis of the energy production from the solar power systems at Grand Canyon West and developing a financial model, based on rates to be charged to Grand Canyon West customers connected to the solar systems, that would provide sufficient revenue for a Tribal Utility Authority to operate and maintain those systems. The objective to establish a central power grid over which the TUA would have authority and responsibility had to be modified because the construction schedule of GCW facilities, specifically the new air terminal, did not match up with the construction schedule for the solar power system. Therefore, two distributed systems were constructed instead of one central system with a high voltage distribution network. The Hualapai Tribal Council has not taken the action necessary to establish the Tribal Utility Authority that could be responsible for the electric service at GCW. The creation of a Tribal Utility Authority (TUA) was the subject of the second objective of the project. The second phase of the project examined the feasibility and strategy for establishing a tribal utility to serve the remainder of the Hualapai Reservation and the feasibility of including wind energy from a tribal wind generator in the energy resource portfolio of the tribal utility (see objective 2 below). It is currently unknown when the Tribal Council will consider the implementation of the results of the study. Objective 1 - Develop the basic organizational structure and operational strategy for a tribally controlled utility to operate at the Tribe’s tourism enterprise district, Grand Canyon West. Coordinate the development of the Tribal Utility structure with the development of the Grand Canyon

  20. Using Daily Horoscopes To Demonstrate Expectancy Confirmation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munro, Geoffrey D.; Munro, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Describes a classroom demonstration that uses daily horoscopes to show the effect that expectation can have on judgment. Addresses the preparation, procedure, and results of the demonstration, and student evaluations. States that the demonstration appears to be effective for teaching students about expectancy confirmation. (CMK)

  1. Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweri, Juerg; Hartog, Joop; Wolter, Stefan C.

    2011-01-01

    We use a unique data set about the wage distribution that Swiss students expect for themselves ex ante, deriving parametric and non-parametric measures to capture expected wage risk. These wage risk measures are unfettered by heterogeneity which handicapped the use of actual market wage dispersion as risk measure in earlier studies. Students in…

  2. Expectancy Theory in Media and Message Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Leuven, Jim

    1981-01-01

    Argues for reversing emphasis on uses and gratifications research in favor of an expectancy model which holds that selection of a particular medium depends on (1) the expectation that the choice will be followed by a message of interest and (2) the importance of that message in satisfying user's values. (PD)

  3. Memory, expectation formation and scheduling choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, P.R.; Peer, S.; Dekker, T.

    2015-01-01

    Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is

  4. Socioeconomic differences in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups.......Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups....

  5. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard

    2017-01-01

    In this article, I study the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. I show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of exp...

  6. Smoking expands expected lifetime with musculoskeletal disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud

    2003-01-01

    By indirect estimation of mortality from smoking and life table methods we estimated expected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases among never smokers, ex-smokers, and smokers. We found that although life expectancy of a heavy smoker is 7 years shorter than that of a never smoker, heavy...

  7. Test Expectancy and Memory for Important Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middlebrooks, Catherine D.; Murayama, Kou; Castel, Alan D.

    2017-01-01

    Prior research suggests that learners study and remember information differently depending upon the type of test they expect to later receive. The current experiments investigate how testing expectations impact the study of and memory for valuable information. Participants studied lists of words ranging in value from 1 to 10 points with the goal…

  8. Expectation formation in dynamic market experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemeijer, P.

    2009-01-01

    People often make mistakes when predicting economic variables such as prices. It is important to understand how these predictions are formed, since people's expectations have a large impact on the development and stability of economic systems. In this thesis the expectation formation of individuals

  9. Expectation of recovery from low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsted, Alice; Vach, Werner; Axø, Marie

    2014-01-01

    Study Design. A prospective cohort study conducted in general practice (GP) and chiropractic practice (CP).Objectives. To explore which patient characteristics were associated with recovery expectations in low back pain (LBP) patients, whether expectations predicted 3-month outcome, and to what...

  10. Perceptual grouping effects on cursor movement expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorneich, Michael C; Hamblin, Christopher J; Lancaster, Jeff A; Olofinboba, Olu

    2014-05-01

    Two studies were conducted to develop an understanding of factors that drive user expectations when navigating between discrete elements on a display via a limited degree-of-freedom cursor control device. For the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle spacecraft, a free-floating cursor with a graphical user interface (GUI) would require an unachievable level of accuracy due to expected acceleration and vibration conditions during dynamic phases of flight. Therefore, Orion program proposed using a "caged" cursor to "jump" from one controllable element (node) on the GUI to another. However, nodes are not likely to be arranged on a rectilinear grid, and so movements between nodes are not obvious. Proximity between nodes, direction of nodes relative to each other, and context features may all contribute to user cursor movement expectations. In an initial study, we examined user expectations based on the nodes themselves. In a second study, we examined the effect of context features on user expectations. The studies established that perceptual grouping effects influence expectations to varying degrees. Based on these results, a simple rule set was developed to support users in building a straightforward mental model that closely matches their natural expectations for cursor movement. The results will help designers of display formats take advantage of the natural context-driven cursor movement expectations of users to reduce navigation errors, increase usability, and decrease access time. The rules set and guidelines tie theory to practice and can be applied in environments where vibration or acceleration are significant, including spacecraft, aircraft, and automobiles.

  11. Expectations as a key element in trusting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mette Apollo; Hansen, Uffe Kjærgaard; Conradsen, Maria Bosse

    Considering the need for a tangible focus for qualitative research on trusting, we propose that expectations to the behavior of others can provide that. By focusing on expectations, researchers can produce narrative descriptions that explains how trusting develops and changes. Then the key theore...

  12. Grief Experiences and Expectance of Suicide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojtkowiak, Joanna; Wild, Verena; Egger, Jos

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is generally viewed as an unexpected cause of death. However, some suicides might be expected to a certain extent, which needs to be further studied. The relationships between expecting suicide, feeling understanding for the suicide, and later grief experiences were explored. In total, 142 bereaved participants completed the Grief…

  13. International Variations in Measuring Customer Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Philip J.

    2001-01-01

    Discussion of customer expectations of library service quality and SERVQUAL as a measurement tool focuses on two studies: one that compared a survey of Chinese university students' expectations of service quality to New Zealand students; and one that investigated national culture as a source of attitudes to customer service. (Author/LRW)

  14. Memory for expectation-violating concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Porubanova, Michaela; Shaw, Daniel; McKay, Ryan

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has shown that ideas which violate our expectations, such as schema-inconsistent concepts, enjoy privileged status in terms of memorability. In our study, memory for concepts that violate cultural (cultural schema-level) expectations (e.g., ‘‘illiterate teacher’’, ‘‘wooden bottle...... expectations and with intuitive concepts (e.g., ‘‘galloping pony’’, ‘‘drying orchid’’, or ‘‘convertible car’’), in both immediate recall, and delayed recognition tests. Importantly, concepts related to agents showed a memory advantage over concepts not pertaining to agents, but this was true only...... for expectation-violating concepts. Our results imply that intuitive, everyday concepts are equally attractive and memorable regardless of the presence or absence of agents. However, concepts that violate our expectations (cultural-schema or domain-level) are more memorable when pertaining to agents (humans...

  15. Expectations, gender, and norms in migration decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DE Jong, Gordon F

    2000-01-01

    This paper argues that expectations - the process of evaluating the chances for future attainment of valued goals in the home community (stay decision) vs. alternative locations (move decision) - along with family norms about migration are major predictors of intention to move, which in turn is a proximate determinant of migration behaviour. Utilizing longitudinal data from the 1992 and 1994 waves of the Thailand National Migration Survey, logistic regression models show that a strikingly different set of expectations, household demographic indicators, and migrant capital factors were significant determinants of migration intentions for men and women; reflecting Thai gender roles. Migration intentions, in turn, predicted more permanent, but not temporary, survival strategy migration behaviour, while low household income predicted temporary but not more permanent migration behaviour. The measure of perceived family migration norms was a powerful determinant of migration behaviour, but the size of migrant networks was not a statistically significant determinant of either migration intentions or behaviour.

  16. Energy policy and nuclear power. Expectations of the power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harig, H.D.

    1995-01-01

    In the opinion of the power industry, using nuclear power in Germany is a responsible attitude, while opting out of nuclear power is not. Electricity utilities will build new nuclear power plants only if the structural economic and ecological advantages of nuclear power are preserved and can be exploited in Germany. The power industry will assume responsibility for new complex, capital-intensive nuclear plants only if a broad societal consensus about this policy can be reached in this country. The power industry expects that the present squandering of nuclear power resources in Germany will be stopped. The power industry is prepared to contribute to finding a speedy consensus in energy policy, which would leave open all decisions which must not be taken today, and which would not constrain the freedom of decision of coming generations. The electricity utilities remain committed proponents of nuclear power. However, what they sell to their customers is electricity, not nuclear power. (orig.) [de

  17. RUSSIAN LAW SUBJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.N. Bakhrakh

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The question about the subjects of law branches is concerning the number of most important and difficult in law science. Its right decision influences on the subject of law regulation, precise definition of addressees of law norms, the volume of their rights and duties, the limits of action of norms of Main part of the branch, its principles. Scientific investigations, dedicated to law subjects system, promote the development of recommendations for the legislative and law applying activity; they are needed for scientific work organization and student training, for preparing qualified lawyers.

  18. Writing and the 'Subject'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Charlotte

    /page. It is, moreover, an index pointing to the painting/writing subject; it is a special deictic mode of painting/writing. The handwriting of the Russian avant-garde books, the poetics of handwriting, and the way handwriting is represented in poetry emphasize the way the subject (the speaking and the viewing...... in the early as well as the contemporary avant-garde, it becomes clear that the ‘subject’ is an unstable category that can be exposed to manipulation and play. Handwriting is performing as a signature (as an index), but is at the same time similar to the signature of a subject (an icon) and a verbal construct...

  19. Subject (of documents)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjørland, Birger

    2017-01-01

    This article presents and discuss the concept “subject” or subject matter (of documents) as it has been examined in library and information science (LIS) for more than 100 years. Different theoretical positions are outlined and it is found that the most important distinction is between document......-oriented views versus request-oriented views. The document-oriented view conceive subject as something inherent in documents, whereas the request-oriented view (or the policy based view) understand subject as an attribution made to documents in order to facilitate certain uses of them. Related concepts...

  20. Gnuastro: GNU Astronomy Utilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhlaghi, Mohammad

    2018-01-01

    Gnuastro (GNU Astronomy Utilities) manipulates and analyzes astronomical data. It is an official GNU package of a large collection of programs and C/C++ library functions. Command-line programs perform arithmetic operations on images, convert FITS images to common types like JPG or PDF, convolve an image with a given kernel or matching of kernels, perform cosmological calculations, crop parts of large images (possibly in multiple files), manipulate FITS extensions and keywords, and perform statistical operations. In addition, it contains programs to make catalogs from detection maps, add noise, make mock profiles with a variety of radial functions using monte-carlo integration for their centers, match catalogs, and detect objects in an image among many other operations. The command-line programs share the same basic command-line user interface for the comfort of both the users and developers. Gnuastro is written to comply fully with the GNU coding standards and integrates well with all Unix-like operating systems. This enables astronomers to expect a fully familiar experience in the source code, building, installing and command-line user interaction that they have seen in all the other GNU software that they use. Gnuastro's extensive library is included for users who want to build their own unique programs.

  1. Effectiveness of a Marijuana Expectancy Manipulation: Piloting the Balanced-Placebo Design for Marijuana

    OpenAIRE

    Metrik, Jane; Rohsenow, Damaris J.; Monti, Peter M.; McGeary, John; Cook, Travis A. R.; de Wit, Harriet; Haney, Margaret; Kahler, Christopher W.

    2009-01-01

    Although alcohol and nicotine administration studies have demonstrated that manipulating subjects’ expectancies regarding drug content affects drug response, research with marijuana has not adequately studied drug expectancy effects. The present pilot study was the first to evaluate the credibility and effect of expectancy manipulation on subjective measures and smoking patterns using a marijuana administration balanced-placebo design (BPD). In a 2 × 2 instructional set (told delta-9-tetrahyd...

  2. Praying for Mr. Right? Religion, Family Background, and Marital Expectations among College Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellison, Christopher G.; Burdette, Amy M.; Glenn, Norval D.

    2011-01-01

    This study explores the relationship between multiple aspects of religious involvement--affiliation, church attendance, subjective religiosity--and marital expectations among college women. In addition, the authors investigate whether religious involvement mediates the link between family background and marital expectations. These issues are…

  3. Is Recess an Achievement Context? An Application of Expectancy-Value Theory to Playground Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer-Cavaliere, Nancy; Dunn, Janice Causgrove; Watkinson, E. Jane

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the application of an expectancy-value model to children's activity choices on the playground at recess. The purpose was to test the prediction that expectancies for success and subjective task values are related to decisions to engage in specific recess activities such as climbing, playing soccer, or skipping rope.…

  4. College Students' Motivation toward Weight Training: An Application of Expectancy-Value Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zan; Xiang, Ping

    2008-01-01

    Guided by an expectancy-value model of achievement choice (Eccles et al., 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000), the relationships among expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values (importance, interest, and usefulness), and achievement outcomes (intention, engagement, and performance) were examined in a college-level beginning weight training…

  5. Prior expectations facilitate metacognition for perceptual decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, M T; Seth, A K; Barrett, A B; Kanai, R

    2015-09-01

    The influential framework of 'predictive processing' suggests that prior probabilistic expectations influence, or even constitute, perceptual contents. This notion is evidenced by the facilitation of low-level perceptual processing by expectations. However, whether expectations can facilitate high-level components of perception remains unclear. We addressed this question by considering the influence of expectations on perceptual metacognition. To isolate the effects of expectation from those of attention we used a novel factorial design: expectation was manipulated by changing the probability that a Gabor target would be presented; attention was manipulated by instructing participants to perform or ignore a concurrent visual search task. We found that, independently of attention, metacognition improved when yes/no responses were congruent with expectations of target presence/absence. Results were modeled under a novel Bayesian signal detection theoretic framework which integrates bottom-up signal propagation with top-down influences, to provide a unified description of the mechanisms underlying perceptual decision and metacognition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Patient/parent expectations of orthodontic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obilade, Omolara Abiodun; da Costa, Oluranti Olatokunbo; Sanu, Oluwatosin Oluyemi

    2017-03-01

    Expectations of orthodontic treatment may differ between the patient and their parents, as the parents' expectations may not reflect those of the child. The aim of this study, therefore, was to determine the expectations of patients and their parents. This was a clinic-based, comparative, cross-sectional study involving 110 patients aged between 10 and 19 years, as well as their accompanying parents or guardians. The expectations of both patients and parents were determined using a questionnaire developed by Sayers and Newton. Results showed that the expectations of the patients and parents differed significantly in a number of areas with the parents' expectations often exceeding those of the patients. Both patients and parents were found to be ignorant about some aspects of orthodontic treatment, with 47.3% of patients and 39.1% of parents unaware of the duration of orthodontic treatment and, as such, requiring information from their clinicians. The results highlight the importance of patient education and counseling as well as the need to focus on the individual patient and not assume that their expectations mirror those of the accompanying parent. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  7. Expectations in patients with total knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekin, Burcu; Unver, Bayram; Karatosun, Vasfi

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is to decrease pain and restore functional knee joint. Current hypotheses indicate higher knee flexion is required in terms of life style, culture and expectations in Eastern communities. Therefore, society-specific features related to life style and cultural habits are needed. The objective of this study was to investigate the expectations of patients undergoing TKA. The study included 131 patients (18 male, 113 female; mean age: 66.2 ± 8.3 years) who underwent cemented TKA due to knee osteoarthritis. All patients were operated by the same surgeon using the same implant and surgical technique. Patients were evaluated using the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) knee score, a 15-item clinical knee assessment questionnaire and the HSS knee arthroplasty expectation questionnaire. Mean HSS score for the right knee was 89.2 ± 10.5 and for the left knee was 89.6 ± 9.4. The two most expected outcomes were improvements in pain (99.2%) and gait (96.2%) and the two least expected outcomes were improvements in psychological well-being (22.9%) and communicative skills (35.1%). Expectations were not affected by education and working conditions. Patients' most expected outcomes were improvement in pain and restoration of function (gait, climbing stairs and no need of assistive devices), similar to Western and American communities.

  8. Calculating utility prudency issue costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, K.R.

    1985-01-01

    The nuclear industry, particularly utilities and their construction, engineering and vendor agents, is faced with a surging increase in prudency management audits. What started as primarily a nuclear project-oriented requirement has spread to encompass most significant utility capital construction projects. Such audits are often a precedent condition to commencement of rate hearings. The cost engineer, a primary major capital construction project participant, is required to develop or critique ''prudency issue'' costs as part of such audits. Although utility costs in the broadest sense are potentially at issue, this paper concentrates on the typical project/construction management costs. The costs of design, procurement and construction are all subject to the calculation process

  9. The remembering subjectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Angélica Garzón Martínez

    2015-07-01

    More concretely this article presents the idea of remembrance subjectivity that becomes converted into a political platform for reclaiming the right to recollect and change based on those recollections

  10. Multiattribute Fixed-State Utility Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-03-27

    of a companion distribution, are presented in Appendix A. Because of the theory of conditional expected utility and the modelling of the utilities by...obtain approximations to the moments, using the companion V ) ) distribution discussed in Section 3. The moments of both distributions are discussed...1956b, 21, 207-216. Slavic, P. "From Shakespeare to Simon: Speculation -- and some evidence -- about man’s ability to process information." O g . a

  11. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard

    This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected...... business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables. The results are confirmed in a real-time out-of-sample exercise, where the predictive accuracy of the models...... is evaluated both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market....

  12. Towards a Characterization of Rational Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Itai Arieli

    2008-01-01

    R. J. Aumann and J. H. Drèze (2008) define a rational expectation of a player i in a game G as the expected payo of some type of i in some belief system for G in which common knowledge of rationality and common priors obtain. Our goal is to characterize the set of rational expectations in terms of the game's payoff matrix. We provide such a characterization for a specific class of strategic games, called semi-elementary, which includes Myerson's "elementary" games.

  13. The Probability Model of Expectation Disconfirmation Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-Hsin HUANG

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a probability model to explore the dynamic process of customer’s satisfaction. Bases on expectation disconfirmation theory, the satisfaction is constructed with customer’s expectation before buying behavior and the perceived performance after purchase. The experiment method is designed to measure expectation disconfirmation effects and we also use the collection data to estimate the overall satisfaction and model calibration. The results show good fitness between the model and the real data. This model has application for business marketing areas in order to manage relationship satisfaction.

  14. Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy: a life table analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuGoff, Eva H; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Buttorff, Christine; Leff, Bruce; Anderson, Gerard F

    2014-08-01

    The number of people living with multiple chronic conditions is increasing, but we know little about the impact of multimorbidity on life expectancy. We analyze life expectancy in Medicare beneficiaries by number of chronic conditions. A retrospective cohort study using single-decrement period life tables. Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, and Alzheimer disease), and number of comorbid conditions. Comorbidity was measured as a count of conditions collected by Chronic Conditions Warehouse and the Charlson Comorbidity Index. Life expectancy decreases with each additional chronic condition. A 67-year-old individual with no chronic conditions will live on average 22.6 additional years. A 67-year-old individual with 5 chronic conditions and ≥10 chronic conditions will live 7.7 fewer years and 17.6 fewer years, respectively. The average marginal decline in life expectancy is 1.8 years with each additional chronic condition-ranging from 0.4 fewer years with the first condition to 2.6 fewer years with the sixth condition. These results are consistent by sex and race. We observe differences in life expectancy by selected conditions at 67, but these differences diminish with age and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency.

  15. Impacts of Professional Development in Integrated STEM Education on Teacher Self-Efficacy, Outcome Expectancy, and Stem Career Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, J. Geoff

    This research analyzed the effects of teacher professional development and lesson implementation in integrated Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) on: 1.) Teacher self-efficacy and their confidence to teach specific STEM subjects; 2.) Teaching outcome expectancy beliefs concerning the impact of actions by teachers on student learning; and 3.) Teacher awareness of STEM careers. High school science and technology education teachers participating in the Teachers and Researchers Advancing Integrated Lessons in STEM (TRAILS) project experimental group attended a ten-day summer professional development institute designed to educate teachers in using an integrated STEM education model to implement integrated STEM lessons. The research design utilized a quasi-experimental nonequivalent comparison group design that incorporated an experimental group and an untreated comparison group with both pretest, posttest, and delayed posttest assessments on non-randomized participants. Teacher self-efficacy has been identified as a key factor in effective teaching and student learning, and teacher awareness of STEM careers impacts students as they consider career choices. The T-STEM Survey for teachers was given for the pretest and posttest assessments to measure attitudes and beliefs toward the specific constructs of this study. Significant effects of the TRAILS professional development were found in the teacher group (experimental or comparison) and teacher subject (technology or science) in pretest and posttest scores using cumulative link models for the constructs of teacher self-efficacy and beliefs to teach STEM subjects, teacher outcome expectancy beliefs, and teacher awareness of STEM careers. Effect sizes ranged from small to large varying by construct and assessment time. Highly significant p-values and effect sizes revealed impacts on science teachers were greater when teacher subject groups were analyzed separately.

  16. On English Locative Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Brůhová

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses English sentences with thematic locative subjects. These subjects were detected as translation counterparts of Czech sentenceinitial locative adverbials realized by prepositional phrases with the prepositions do (into, na (on, v/ve (in, z/ze (from complemented by a noun. In the corresponding English structure, the initial scene-setting adverbial is reflected in the thematic subject, which results in the locative semantics of the subject. The sentences are analysed from syntactic, semantic and FSP aspects. From the syntactic point of view, we found five syntactic patterns of the English sentences with a locative subject (SV, SVA, SVO, SVpassA and SVCs that correspond to Czech sentences with initial locative adverbials. On the FSP level the paper studies the potential of the sentences to implement the Presentation or Quality Scale. Since it is the “semantic content of the verb that actuates the presentation semantics of the sentence” (Duškova, 2015a: 260, major attention is paid to the syntactic-semantic structure of the verb. The analysis of the semantics of the English sentences results in the identification of two semantic classes of verbs which co-occur with the English locative subject.

  17. Postural control in blind subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Antonio Vinicius; Oliveira, Cláudia Silva Remor de; Knabben, Rodrigo José; Domenech, Susana Cristina; Borges Junior, Noe Gomes

    2011-12-01

    To analyze postural control in acquired and congenitally blind adults. A total of 40 visually impaired adults participated in the research, divided into 2 groups, 20 with acquired blindness and 20 with congenital blindness - 21 males and 19 females, mean age 35.8 ± 10.8. The Brazilian version of Berg Balance Scale and the motor domain of functional independence measure were utilized. On Berg Balance Scale the mean for acquired blindness was 54.0 ± 2.4 and 54.4 ± 2.5 for congenitally blind subjects; on functional independence measure the mean for acquired blind group was 87.1 ± 4.8 and 87.3 ± 2.3 for congenitally blind group. Based upon the scale used the results suggest the ability to control posture can be developed by compensatory mechanisms and it is not affected by visual loss in congenitally and acquired blindness.

  18. Postural control in blind subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Vinicius Soares

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To analyze postural control in acquired and congenitally blind adults. Methods: A total of 40 visually impaired adults participated in the research, divided into 2 groups, 20 with acquired blindness and 20 with congenital blindness - 21 males and 19 females, mean age 35.8 ± 10.8. The Brazilian version of Berg Balance Scale and the motor domain of functional independence measure were utilized. Results: On Berg Balance Scale the mean for acquired blindness was 54.0 ± 2.4 and 54.4 ± 2.5 for congenitally blind subjects; on functional independence measure the mean for acquired blind group was 87.1 ± 4.8 and 87.3 ± 2.3 for congenitally blind group. Conclusion: Based upon the scale used the results suggest the ability to control posture can be developed by compensatory mechanisms and it is not affected by visual loss in congenitally and acquired blindness.

  19. The upgraded JRR-3 and future scope of its utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyasaka, Yasuhiko; Umei, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Hidetake; Sakamoto, Masanobu

    1985-10-01

    At the time of start to construct the upgraded JRR-3, the present report describes general features on the upgraded JRR-3 and future scope of its utilization on the purpose of the mutual understanding with researchers who use the reactor and the utilization facilities. The materials edited in the report have been written by 28 reactor engineers and scientists in JAERI, and 35 scientists in universities. According to the reviewed subjects as shown below, it was confirmed that the upgraded JRR-3 would be extensively expected by much more fields. (1) Reactor and utilization facilities. 1. Plan and main features of the upgraded JRR-3, Reactor building 2. Irradiation facilities: Hydraulic rabbits, Pneumatic tubes, Rig Hot Cell, etc. 3. Neutron beam facilities: Horizontal tubes, Cold neutron source and Neutron guide tubes (2) Neutron beam experimental facilities. 1. Neutron diffractometer, neutron spectrometer, Small-angle neutron scattering, Neutron radiography, etc. (3) Recent trends. 1. Irradiation research of fuels and materials in research reactor 2. Activation analysis, Radioisotope, Neutron transmutation doping, etc. 3. Neutron scattering research. (author)

  20. Segmentation of Portuguese customers’ expectations from fitness programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Gouveia Rodrigues

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Expectations towards fitness exercises are the major factor in customer satisfaction in the service sector in question. The purpose of this study is to present a segmentation framework for fitness customers, based on their individual expectations. The survey was designed and validated to evaluate individual expectations towards exercises. The study included a randomly recruited sample of 723 subjects (53% males; 47% females; 42.1±19.7 years. Factor analysis and cluster analysis with Ward’s cluster method with squared Euclidean distance were used to analyse the data obtained. Four components were extracted (performance, enjoyment, beauty and health explaining 68.7% of the total variance and three distinct segments were found: Exercise Lovers (n=312, Disinterested (n=161 and Beauty Seekers (n=250. All the factors identified have a significant contribution to differentiate the clusters, the first and third clusters being most similar. The segmentation framework obtained based on customer expectations allows better understanding of customers’ profiles, thus helping the fitness industry develop services more suitable for each type of customers. A follow-up study was conducted 5 years later and the results concur with the initial study.

  1. Harm beliefs and coping expectancies in youth with specific phobias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollendick, Thomas H; Öst, Lars-Göran; Ryan, Sarah M; Capriola, Nicole N; Reuterskiöld, Lena

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic beliefs and lowered coping expectancies are often present in individuals with specific phobias (SPs). The current study examined these beliefs and expectancies in 251 youth who received One Session Treatment for one of the three most common types of SP in youth (animals, natural environment, and situational). We compared the children's subjective beliefs to objective ratings of the likelihood of occurrence and the dangerousness of the feared events. Results revealed pre-treatment differences in the youths' beliefs across phobia types and age. Specifically, children with animal phobias rated their beliefs as more likely to occur than did children with environmental and situational phobias. In addition, older children rated their beliefs as more dangerous than younger children. However, regardless of phobia type or child age, the beliefs improved following treatment. Changes in catastrophic beliefs and coping expectancies were related to changes in clinical severity following treatment but not 6-months following treatment. Moreover, at pre-treatment, children viewed their beliefs as significantly more catastrophic and likely to occur than did independent coders of these beliefs; however, these differences were no longer evident following treatment. Clinical implications are discussed, highlighting how changes in beliefs and expectancies might be associated with treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Subjective evaluation of HEVC in mobile devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ray; Kalva, Hari

    2013-03-01

    Mobile compute environments provide a unique set of user needs and expectations that designers must consider. With increased multimedia use in mobile environments, video encoding methods within the smart phone market segment are key factors that contribute to positive user experience. Currently available display resolutions and expected cellular bandwidth are major factors the designer must consider when determining which encoding methods should be supported. The desired goal is to maximize the consumer experience, reduce cost, and reduce time to market. This paper presents a comparative evaluation of the quality of user experience when HEVC and AVC/H.264 video coding standards were used. The goal of the study was to evaluate any improvements in user experience when using HEVC. Subjective comparisons were made between H.264/AVC and HEVC encoding standards in accordance with Doublestimulus impairment scale (DSIS) as defined by ITU-R BT.500-13. Test environments are based on smart phone LCD resolutions and expected cellular bit rates, such as 200kbps and 400kbps. Subjective feedback shows both encoding methods are adequate at 400kbps constant bit rate. However, a noticeable consumer experience gap was observed for 200 kbps. Significantly less H.264 subjective quality is noticed with video sequences that have multiple objects moving and no single point of visual attraction. Video sequences with single points of visual attraction or few moving objects tended to have higher H.264 subjective quality.

  3. Anesthesia -- What to Expect (For Teens)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Staying Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Anesthesia - What to Expect KidsHealth / For Teens / Anesthesia - What ... Operating Room After Surgery Print Different Kinds of Anesthesia If you're having any kind of procedure ...

  4. Stakeholder expectation and satisfaction in road maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hietbrink, M.; Hartmann, Andreas; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the process of stakeholder satisfaction is a prerequisite for successful stakeholder management. The expectancy disconfirmation model describes the process of stakeholder satisfaction by relating customers’ satisfaction with a product or service to discrepancy between the perceived

  5. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Earn your CME from the convenience of your home or office by accessing ACG's web-based educational ... ACG Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What ...

  6. AUDIT EXPECTATION GAP: AUDITORS IN UNENDING ROLE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GRACE

    Key Words: Expectation gap, Auditors, Shareholders, Self-regulation, Audit ... of auditing has changed from fraud detection to ‗verification of financial .... According to the role theory, the role of the auditors can be viewed in terms of the.

  7. Enhanced Patient Expectant and Antiemetic Drug Efficacy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roscoe, Joseph

    1999-01-01

    ...; and writing abstracts, papers, and book chapters. The training also includes the design, implementation and analyses of a randomized controlled experiment examining the relationship between cancer patient expectations for experiencing chemotherapy...

  8. Components of attention modulated by temporal expectation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Bundesen, Claus

    2015-01-01

    By varying the probabilities that a stimulus would appear at particular times after the presentation of a cue and modeling the data by the theory of visual attention (Bundesen, 1990), Vangkilde, Coull, and Bundesen (2012) provided evidence that the speed of encoding a singly presented stimulus...... letter into visual short-term memory (VSTM) is modulated by the observer’s temporal expectations. We extended the investigation from single-stimulus recognition to whole report (Experiment 1) and partial report (Experiment 2). Cue–stimulus foreperiods were distributed geometrically using time steps...... of 500 ms. In high expectancy conditions, the probability that the stimulus would appear on the next time step, given that it had not yet appeared, was high, whereas in low expectancy conditions, the probability was low. The speed of encoding the stimuli into VSTM was higher in the high expectancy...

  9. Training across Cultures: What To Expect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weech, William A.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses four critical dimensions that help explain the variation in cultural expectations: (1) egalitarianism versus hierarchy; (2) individualism versus collectivism; (3) achievement versus relationship orientation; and (4) loose versus tight structure. Explains how to apply these dimensions in training. (JOW)

  10. Using Expectancy Theory to Explain Performance Appraisal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pc

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... appraisal conducting style, the relation between the performance appraisal system and task ... the article first explains the theory model which is based expectancy theory. II. ... which in return lead to rewards. According to [12],.

  11. The impact of individual expectations and expectation conflicts on virtual teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch-Sijtsema, Petra

    Virtual teams are characterized by geographical dispersion, organizational, and cultural heterogeneity, and their members have little history and lateral and weak relationships. Literature denotes the importance of expectations in virtual settings, but individual expectations of virtual team members

  12. Understanding the Hows and Whys of Decision-Making: From Expected Utility to Divisive Normalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glimcher, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of the last century, economists and ethologists have built detailed models from first principles of how humans and animals should make decisions. Over the course of the last few decades, psychologists and behavioral economists have gathered a wealth of data at variance with the predictions of these economic models. This has led to the development of highly descriptive models that can often predict what choices people or animals will make but without offering any insight into why people make the choices that they do--especially when those choices reduce a decision-maker's well-being. Over the course of the last two decades, neurobiologists working with economists and psychologists have begun to use our growing understanding of how the nervous system works to develop new models of how the nervous system makes decisions. The result, a growing revolution at the interdisciplinary border of neuroscience, psychology, and economics, is a new field called Neuroeconomics. Emerging neuroeconomic models stand to revolutionize our understanding of human and animal choice behavior by combining fundamental properties of neurobiological representation with decision-theoretic analyses. In this overview, one class of these models, based on the widely observed neural computation known as divisive normalization, is presented in detail. The work demonstrates not only that a discrete class of computation widely observed in the nervous system is fundamentally ubiquitous, but how that computation shapes behaviors ranging from visual perception to financial decision-making. It also offers the hope of reconciling economic analysis of what choices we should make with psychological observations of the choices we actually do make. Copyright © 2014 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

  13. The difference between expected and experienced utility : Some studies on having children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Kamilçelebi (Hatime); R. Veenhoven (Ruut)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstract_Turkish_ Daniel Kahneman faydanın iki formu olduğunu söyleyerek faydayı beklenen fayda ve deneyimlenen fayda olmak üzere ikiye ayırır. Kahneman’a göre deneyimlenen fayda hem insanlar tarafından ölçülebilir hem de deneyimlenen faydanın deneysel olarak beklenen faydadan

  14. Trade reform, policy uncertainty, and the current account: a non expected-utility approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1992-01-01

    Rapid and comprehensive reduction in barriers to international trade has often been followed by a sharp deterioration in the current account. The macroeconomic counterpart of the deterioration has typically been a decline in private savings; no clear response pattern has been observed for private

  15. THE QUALITY AND UTILITY OF ANNUAL FINANCIAL REPORTS BETWEEN EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Mihai

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Any company makes its presence felt in the market by providing financial - accounting. Users will be more interested in issuing entity, to the extent that the information provided is attractive and quality, showing favorable results. So any accounting information quality is a measure of objectivity and transparency pursued transposition. Setting targets for financial statements depends on many factors and in addition, there is a universal set of objective, valid for all businesses, whatever the accounting system adopted. Over time, in our country, the accounting system has undergone various changes aimed at ensuring financial accounting information as qualitative targets, so try to bring the national accounting system close to international accounting standards. From an analysis of the three periods to improve national accounting system, no one can see only instability reform process accounting, which included regulations associated initially with European directives (which is also found in French accounting system, then with IAS and European directives, in order to subsequently take place reversing the order of accounting regulations, putting in this regard, European directives first, and IFRS (whose application is reduced on the second place, combination that has led to the emergence of contradictory situation in some cases.

  16. Future perspective of nuclear energy utilization and expected role of HTGR. JAERI's energy systems analysis research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Osamu

    1996-01-01

    Studies have been made in JAERI in order to assess the possibility of using nuclear energy symbiotically with fossil and biomass fuels, and to evaluate its implications for the environment. The application system of high temperature nuclear heat has been designed for this purpose with various technology options. The core of the system is a set of technologies for hydrogen production and its application to produce clean and convenient fuels from fossil or biomass sources. The results of analytical studies using the MARKAL model have indicated sufficient possibilities of combining nuclear energy effectively with fossil or biomass fuels via hydrogen produced by high temperature nuclear heat. In addition to providing clean and convenient liquid fuels on a large scale, the combined system will contribute to the substantial reduction of long-term CO 2 emissions. The relatively high cost of this system will be well justified when CO 2 emission penalties are taken into account. (J.P.N.)

  17. Explaining the energy efficiency gap - expected utility theory versus cumulative prospect theory

    OpenAIRE

    Häckel, Björn; Pfosser, Stefan; Tränkler, Timm

    2017-01-01

    Energy efficiency is one of the key factors in mitigating the impact of climate change and preserving non-renewable resources. Although environmental and economic justifications for energy efficiency investments are compelling, there is a gap between the observable and some notion of optimized energy consumption - the so-called energy efficiency gap. Behavioral biases in individual decision making have been resonated by environmental research to explain this gap. To analyze the influence of b...

  18. Forecasting Complex Political and Military Events: The Application of Expected Utility to Crisis Situations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kugler, Jacek; Abdollahian, Mark A; Tammen, Ronald L

    2000-01-01

    .... There is a need to create "real time" crisis decision-making environments where players can apply their current information base and manipulate hundreds of variables to achieve optimum outcomes...

  19. PARENTS’ EXPECTATIONS OF THE TEACHING AND LEARNING ISLAMIC EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nur Hasanah

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The focuses of this research is on parents’ expectation of the teaching and learning Islamic Education among students of SDLB N Ungaran. The subject is Islamic Education teachers and the parents of students in SDLB N Ungaran. The methods of data collections are observation, interview and documentation. The technique of data analysis is inductive analysis. The result shows that the teaching and learning Islamic Education among students of SDLB N Ungaran is generally almost the same with the teaching and learning Islamic Education among students of general school. The difference is only in the psychological aspect. The majority of parents’ expectation of the teaching and learning Islamic Education is the same: in order the students can understand and apply the subject of Islamic Education in their everyday life so that they can become the righteous children. The factors that support the teaching and learning Islamic Education among students of SDLB N Ungaran are the Islamic Education teachers’ patients and meticulous, cooperation between parents, teachers and the school, the extracurricular subjects which are suitable with the students’ talent and ability, and teachers’ creativity in teaching and learning. The factors that hinder the teaching and learning Islamic Education are inefficient and ineffective time (not suitable with the students with physical disabilities, using the same curriculum with the curriculum in the general school, the low quality teachers, and the lack of teaching and learning facilities. 

  20. Preschool Children's Expectations for Parental Discipline

    OpenAIRE

    Graham, Angie Geertsen

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence preschool children's expectations for parental discipline. Parent characteristics such as personality, values, social class, and disciplinary methods can affect the expectations children have for parental discipline. Children's ability to understand and interpret parental messages can also influence how they will respond. All of these factors need to be taken into consideration in order for effective communication between parents and children to occur. In this study,...

  1. Lessons from Learning to Have Rational Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Lindh, Thomas

    1989-01-01

    This paper reviews a growing literature investigating how economic agents may learn rational expectations. Fully rational learning requires implausible initial information assumptions, therefore some form of bounded rationality has come into focus. Such learning models often converge to rational expectations equilibria within certain bounds. Convergence analysis has been much simplified by methods from adaptive control theory. Learning stability as a correspondence principle show some promise...

  2. Are women expected to be more generous?

    OpenAIRE

    Aguiar, Fernando

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes if men and women are expected to behave differently regarding altruism. Since the dictator game provides the most suitable design for studying altruism and generosity in the lab setting, we use a modified version to study the beliefs involved in the game. Our results are substantial: men and women are expected to behave differently. Moreover, while women believe that women are more generous, men consider that women are as generous as men. © 2008 Economic Science Association.

  3. Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Madeira; Basit Zafar

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. We find that women, ethnic minorities, and less educated agents have a higher degree of heterogeneity in their private information, and are slower to update their expectations. During the 2000s, consumers believe inflation to be more persistent in the short term, but temporary fluctua...

  4. Telaah Kritis Expectancy Theory Victor Harold Vroom

    OpenAIRE

    Anatan, Lina

    2010-01-01

    Expectancy theory has emerge as the dominant process theory of motivation, originally developed by Vroom is a theory explaining the process individual use to make decision on a various behavioral alternatives. The motivational force for a behavior, action, or task is a function of three distinctive perceptions: expectancy, instrumentality, and valance. The theory contains of two models: for the precition of valance of an outcome, and the other for the prediction of force toward behavior. It p...

  5. Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Ermisch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is plausible that people take into account anticipated changes in family size in choosing where to live. But estimation of the impact of anticipated events on current transitions in an event history framework is challenging because expectations must be measured in some way and, like indicators of past childbearing, expected future childbearing may be endogenous with respect to housing decisions. Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate how expected changes in family size affect residential movement in Great Britain in a way which addresses these challenges. Methods: We use longitudinal data from a mature 18-wave panel survey, the British Household Panel Survey, which incorporates a direct measure of fertility expectations. The statistical methods allow for the potential endogeneity of expectations in our estimation and testing framework. Results: We produce evidence consistent with the idea that past childbearing mainly affects residential mobility through expectations of future childbearing, not directly through the number of children in the household. But there is heterogeneity in response. In particular, fertility expectations have a much greater effect on mobility among women who face lower costs of mobility, such as private tenants. Conclusions: Our estimates indicate that expecting to have a(nother child in the future increases the probability of moving by about 0.036 on average, relative to an average mobility rate of 0.14 per annum in our sample. Contribution: Our contribution is to incorporate anticipation of future events into an empirical model of residential mobility. We also shed light on how childbearing affects mobility.

  6. Young infants have biological expectations about animals

    OpenAIRE

    Setoh, Peipei; Wu, Di; Baillargeon, Renée; Gelman, Rochel

    2013-01-01

    We provide an experimental demonstration that young infants possess abstract biological expectations about animals. Our findings represent a major breakthrough in the study of the foundations of human knowledge. In four experiments, 8-mo-old infants expected novel objects they categorized as animals to have filled insides. Thus, infants detected a violation when objects that were self-propelled and agentive were revealed to be hollow, or when an object that was self-propelled and furry rattle...

  7. Gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth

    OpenAIRE

    Trifon I. Missov

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND The gamma-Gompertz multiplicative frailty model is the most common parametric modelapplied to human mortality data at adult and old ages. The resulting life expectancy hasbeen calculated so far only numerically. OBJECTIVE Properties of the gamma-Gompertz distribution have not been thoroughly studied. The focusof the paper is to shed light onto its first moment or, demographically speaking, characterizelife expectancy resulting from a gamma-Gompertz force of mortality. The paperprov...

  8. Converting customer expectations into achievable results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, G A

    1999-11-01

    It is not enough in today's environment to just meet customers' expectations--we must exceed them. Therefore, one must learn what constitutes expectations. These needs have expanded during the past few years from just manufacturing the product and looking at the outcome from a provincial standpoint. Now we must understand and satisfy the entire supply chain. To manage this process and satisfy the customer, the process now involves the supplier, the manufacturer, and the entire distribution system.

  9. FAIR VALUE: UTILITY AND LIMITS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Gabriel Cristea

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the utility and the limits of the fair value. We believe that any new product must be tried and tested before being imposed on the market and must be accepted by all potential users and those who will be affected, directly or indirectly and its advantages, disadvantages, risks, its cost must be predetermined and analyzed in a comprehensive and objective.We ask: Do financial statements at fair value meet users' expectations? The requirement to use fair value pricing model that was carrying was not accompanied by a parallel examination of its impact on the presentation of accounts.

  10. Utilization of the terrestrial cyanobacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katoh, Hiroshi; Tomita-Yokotani, Kaori; Furukawa, Jun; Kimura, Shunta; Yokoshima, Mika; Yamaguchi, Yuji; Takenaka, Hiroyuki

    The terrestrial, N _{2}-fixing cyanobacterium, Nostoc commune has expected to utilize for agriculture, food and terraforming cause of its extracellular polysaccharide, desiccation tolerance and nitrogen fixation. Previously, the first author indicated that desiccation related genes were analyzed and the suggested that the genes were related to nitrogen fixation and metabolisms. In this report, we suggest possibility of agriculture, using the cyanobacterium. Further, we also found radioactive compounds accumulated N. commune (cyanobacterium) in Fukushima, Japan after nuclear accident. Thus, it is investigated to decontaminate radioactive compounds from the surface soil by the cyanobacterium and showed to accumulate radioactive compounds using the cyanobacterium. We will discuss utilization of terrestrial cyanobacteria under closed environment. Keyword: Desiccation, terrestrial cyanobacteria, bioremediation, agriculture

  11. An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barış Soybilgen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Expectations of inflation play a critical role in the process of price setting in the market. Central banks closely follow developments in inflation expectations to implement a successful monetary policy. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT conducts a survey of experts and decision makers in the financial and real sectors to reveal market expectations and predictions of current and future inflation. The survey is conducted every month. This paper examines the accuracy of these survey predictions using forecast evaluation techniques. We focus on both point and sign accuracy of the predictions. Although point predictions from CBRT surveys are compared with those of autoregressive models, sign predictions are evaluated on their value to a user. We also test the predictions for bias. Unlike the empirical evidence from other economies, our results show that autoregressive models outperform most of inflation expectations in forecasting inflation. This indicates that inflation expectations have poor point forecast accuracies. However, we show that sign predictions for all inflation expectations have value to a user.

  12. Decrements in Intrinsic Motivation among Rewarded and Observer Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Mark

    1983-01-01

    Two studies examined the extent to which overjustification effects in five- and ten-year-old subjects can be explained in terms of expectations deriving from the offer of a reward by the experimenter. (Author/MP)

  13. Influence diagram in evaluating the subjective judgment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Y.

    1997-01-01

    The author developed the idea of the subjective influence diagrams to evaluate subjective judgment. The subjective judgment of a stake holder is a primary decision making proposition. It involves a basic decision process an the individual attitude of the stake holder for his decision purpose. The subjective judgment dominates the some final decisions. A complex decision process may include the subjective judgment. An influence diagram framework is a simplest tool for analyzing subjective judgment process. In the framework, the characters of influence diagrams generate the describing the analyzing, and the evaluating of the subjective judgment. The relationship between the information and the decision, such as independent character between them, is the main issue. Then utility function is the calculating tool to evaluation, the stake holder can make optimal decision. Through the analysis about the decision process and relationship, the building process of the influence diagram identically describes the subjective judgment. Some examples are given to explain the property of subjective judgment and the analysis process

  14. Neural representation of expected value in the adolescent brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Galván, Adriana

    2014-01-28

    Previous work shows that the adolescent reward system is hyperactive, but this finding may be confounded by differences in how teens value money. To address this, we examined the neural ontogeny of objective value representation. Adolescent and adult participants performed a monetary gambling task in which they chose to accept or reject gambles of varying expected value. Increasing expected value had a stronger influence over gambling choices in adolescents relative to adults, an effect that was paralleled by greater activation in the ventral striatum in adolescents. This unique adolescent ventral striatum response remained even after matching groups on acceptance behavior. These behavioral and neural data suggest that the value of available options has a greater influence in adolescent versus adult choices, even when objective value and subjective choice are held constant. This research provides further evidence that hyperactivation of reward circuitry in adolescence may be a normative ontogenetic shift that is due to greater valuation in the adolescent brain.

  15. The causal structure of utility conditionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnefon, Jean-François; Sloman, Steven A

    2013-01-01

    The psychology of reasoning is increasingly considering agents' values and preferences, achieving greater integration with judgment and decision making, social cognition, and moral reasoning. Some of this research investigates utility conditionals, ''if p then q'' statements where the realization of p or q or both is valued by some agents. Various approaches to utility conditionals share the assumption that reasoners make inferences from utility conditionals based on the comparison between the utility of p and the expected utility of q. This article introduces a new parameter in this analysis, the underlying causal structure of the conditional. Four experiments showed that causal structure moderated utility-informed conditional reasoning. These inferences were strongly invited when the underlying structure of the conditional was causal, and significantly less so when the underlying structure of the conditional was diagnostic. This asymmetry was only observed for conditionals in which the utility of q was clear, and disappeared when the utility of q was unclear. Thus, an adequate account of utility-informed inferences conditional reasoning requires three components: utility, probability, and causal structure. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  16. Interaction, transference, and subjectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundgaard Andersen, Linda

    2012-01-01

    Fieldwork is one of the important methods in educational, social, and organisational research. In fieldwork, the researcher takes residence for a shorter or longer period amongst the subjects and settings to be studied. The aim of this is to study the culture of people: how people seem to make...... sense of their lives and which moral, professional, and ethical values seem to guide their behaviour and attitudes. In fieldwork, the researcher has to balance participation and observation in her attempts at representation. Consequently, the researcher’s academic and life-historical subjectivity...... is also subjected to psychodynamic processes. In this article, I draw upon a number of research inquiries to illustrate how psychodynamic processes influence research processes: data production, research questions and methodology, relations to informants, as well as interpretation and analysis. I further...

  17. Decision Utility Theory: Back to von Neumann, Morgenstern, and Markowitz

    OpenAIRE

    Kontek, Krzysztof

    2010-01-01

    Prospect Theory (1979) and its Cumulative version (1992) argue for probability weighting to explain lottery choices. Decision Utility Theory presents an alternative solution, which makes no use of this concept. The new theory distinguishes decision and perception utility, postulates a double S-shaped decision utility curve similar to one hypothesized by Markowitz (1952), and applies the expected decision utility value similarly to the theory by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944). Decision Uti...

  18. Network approach for decision making under risk—How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi-Shin

    2018-01-01

    Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing ‘goal’ and ‘time’ factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight. PMID:29702665

  19. Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Wei; Chen, Yi-Shin

    2018-01-01

    Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

  20. Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Pan

    Full Text Available Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

  1. An empirical analysis of price expectations formation: Evidence from the crude oil reserves acquisitions market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vielhaber, L.M.

    1991-01-01

    Reasons for the recent scant empirical attention to price expectations theory are twofold. First, except for futures markets and the occasional expectations survey, price expectations are rarely documented. Second, results of empirical tests of rational expectations are fundamentally flawed by the subjective input of the researcher. Subjectivity taints the results of the test, first, in the form of model specification and, second, in the form of the identification of the relevant information set. This study addresses each of these shortcomings. First, crude oil price expectations are recovered in the market for reserves by using a standard engineering model commonly used in reserves evaluation. Second, the crude oil futures market is used to estimate an index of information. This index circumvents the need to subjectively identify the elements of the information set, removing a key source of subjective input. The results show that agents involved in the crude oil reserves acquisitions market form expectations of futures prices in a way that does not conform with the adaptive expectations model

  2. Economic Loan Loss Provision and Expected Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Hlawatsch

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The intention of a loan loss provision is the anticipation of the loan's expected losses by adjusting the book value of the loan. Furthermore, this loan loss provision has to be compared to the expected loss according to Basel II and, in the case of a difference, liable equity has to be adjusted. This however assumes that the loan loss provision and the expected loss are based on a similar economic rationale, which is only valid conditionally in current loan loss provisioning methods according to IFRS. Therefore, differences between loan loss provisions and expected losses should only result from different approaches regarding the parameter estimation within each model and not due to different assumptions regarding the outcome of the model. The provisioning and accounting model developed in this paper overcomes the before-mentioned shortcomings and is consistent with an economic rationale of expected losses. Additionally, this model is based on a close-to-market valuation of the loan that is in favor of the basic idea of IFRS. Suggestions for changes in current accounting and capital requirement rules are provided.

  3. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE, to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

  4. A Bayesian truth serum for subjective data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prelec, Drazen

    2004-10-15

    Subjective judgments, an essential information source for science and policy, are problematic because there are no public criteria for assessing judgmental truthfulness. I present a scoring method for eliciting truthful subjective data in situations where objective truth is unknowable. The method assigns high scores not to the most common answers but to the answers that are more common than collectively predicted, with predictions drawn from the same population. This simple adjustment in the scoring criterion removes all bias in favor of consensus: Truthful answers maximize expected score even for respondents who believe that their answer represents a minority view.

  5. Subjectivity of embodiment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novotný, Karel

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 1 (2014), s. 187-195 ISSN 1804-624X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP401/10/1164 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : Levinas * phenomenology * factivity * body * experience Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion

  6. Miscellaneous subjects, ch. 18

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brussaard, P.J.; Glaudemans, P.W.M.

    1977-01-01

    Attention is paid to a variery of subjects which are related to shell model applications, e.g. the Lanczos method for matrix diagonalization, truncation methods (seniority truncation, single-particle energy truncation and diagonal energy truncation which can be used for reducing the configuration space.) Coulomb energies and spurious states are briefly discussed. Finally attention is paid to the particle-vibrator model

  7. Barron's SAT subject test

    CERN Document Server

    Jansen, MA, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Includes one diagnostic test and three complete tests, all questions answered and explained, self-assessment guides, and subject reviews. Also features test strategies, QR codes to short instructional videos, and a detailed appendix with equations, physical constants, and a basic math review.

  8. Domestic utility attitudes toward foreign uranium supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-06-01

    The current embargo on the enrichment of foreign-origin uranium for use in domestic utilization facilities is scheduled to be removed in 1984. The pending removal of this embargo, complicated by a depressed worldwide market for uranium, has prompted consideration of a new or extended embargo within the US Government. As part of its on-going data collection activities, Nuclear Resources International (NRI) has surveyed 50 domestic utility/utility holding companies (representing 60 lead operator-utilities) on their foreign uranium purchase strategies and intentions. The most recent survey was conducted in early May 1981. A number of qualitative observations were made during the course of the survey. The major observations are: domestic utility views toward foreign uranium purchase are dynamic; all but three utilities had some considered foreign purchase strategy; some utilities have problems with buying foreign uranium from particular countries; an inducement is often required by some utilities to buy foreign uranium; opinions varied among utilities concerning the viability of the domestic uranium industry; and many utilities could have foreign uranium fed through their domestic uranium contracts (indirect purchases). The above observations are expanded in the final section of the report. However, it should be noted that two of the observations are particularly important and should be seriously considered in formulation of foreign uranium import restrictions. These important observations are the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the potentially large and imbalanced effect the indirect purchases could have on utility foreign uranium procurement

  9. Reduced Nicotine Content Expectancies Affect Initial Responses to Smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercincavage, Melissa; Smyth, Joshua M; Strasser, Andrew A; Branstetter, Steven A

    2016-10-01

    We sought to determine if negative responses to reduced nicotine content (RNC) cigarettes during open-label trials result from smokers' (negative) expectancies. We examined the effects of nicotine content description - independent of actual nicotine content - on subjective responses (craving reduction, withdrawal suppression, mood changes, and sensory ratings) and smoking behaviors (topography measures and carbon monoxide [CO] boost). Thirty-six 12-hour-abstinent daily smokers completed a 3-session crossover trial. During each session, participants smoked their preferred brand cigarette - blinded and described as containing "usual," "low," and "very low" nicotine content - through a topography device and completed CO and subjective response assessments. Although nicotine content was identical, compared to the "usual" content cigarette, participants experienced less craving reduction after smoking the "very low" nicotine cigarette, and rated its smoke as weaker (p marketing and labeling are likely important considerations if a federal nicotine reduction policy is initiated.

  10. Risk and utility in portfolio optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Morrel H.; Natoli, Vincent D.

    2003-06-01

    Modern portfolio theory (MPT) addresses the problem of determining the optimum allocation of investment resources among a set of candidate assets. In the original mean-variance approach of Markowitz, volatility is taken as a proxy for risk, conflating uncertainty with risk. There have been many subsequent attempts to alleviate that weakness which, typically, combine utility and risk. We present here a modification of MPT based on the inclusion of separate risk and utility criteria. We define risk as the probability of failure to meet a pre-established investment goal. We define utility as the expectation of a utility function with positive and decreasing marginal value as a function of yield. The emphasis throughout is on long investment horizons for which risk-free assets do not exist. Analytic results are presented for a Gaussian probability distribution. Risk-utility relations are explored via empirical stock-price data, and an illustrative portfolio is optimized using the empirical data.

  11. Policing Challenged and People’s Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Mohan Shrestha

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Peace, security, rule of law, and sustainable development are driving principles in a democratic notion of developing country like Nepal. "3Is': Injustice, Insecurity and Imbalance have been reflecting in the post transitional Nepal. The study came with the objectives of investigating the peoples' perceptions on the adaptation of policing, the challenges and expectation. The information was collected from 1111(N respondents all over the country from different ways of life, applying mixed method questionnaire survey and interview. The research show the need of system based policing like 'intelligence-led'; 'police public partnership', and 'proactive' respectively. The influence of politicization, political instability, external influence, lack of role model leadership, open border, rampant corruption, nepotism-favoritism, lack of research are the major challenges in the security organizations. Furthermore, most educated and high profile personalities have less interest to encourage their generation in police services. People are expecting proficient and accountable police forces. Keywords: Policing, Challenges, People's Expectation

  12. The Subject of Exemption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamre, Bjørn; Fristrup, Tine; Christensen, Gerd

    2016-01-01

    ’s understanding of the relation between normality and deviancy. On the other hand, an examination of Danish Foucauldian disability research shows that this conception of ‘the deviant subject’ has changed over time. Hence, the present expectations of ‘the disabled’ are – more or less – influenced by contemporary...... discourses of general education. Thus, this article argues that Foucauldian disability studies could benefit from taking into account Foucauldian research in the field of general education. Until recently, the two research fields have been mutually isolated....

  13. Adolescent pregnancy: do expectations affect intentions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens-Simon, Catherine; Sheeder, Jeanelle; Beach, Roberta; Harter, Susan

    2005-09-01

    To establish the relationship between expectations about the effects of childbearing on specific aspects of life and the strength of the desire to remain nonpregnant during adolescence. We hypothesized that the absence of negative childbearing expectations is associated with an increase in the odds that sexually active, inadequately contracepting teenage girls are cognitively susceptible to conception. A racially and ethnically diverse group of 351 nulligravida, inadequately contracepting teenagers was studied. Participants responded to 60 items that asked about their expectation about the effects of becoming pregnant and not doing so. Analyses were performed to determine the factorial structure of the childbearing expectations items and their relationship to cognitive susceptibility to conception, defined as the lack of desire to remain nonpregnant. The analysis yielded a 9-factor solution for the childbearing expectations items. All 9 sub-scales exhibited acceptable reliability coefficients, stable factor patterns, and correlated significantly with the desire to remain nonpregnant. A dose-dependent relationship suggestive of causality was also apparent. In stepwise regression the sub-scales that assessed the anticipated effect of childbearing on future plans, self-esteem, and boyfriend relations remained significant and accounted for 56% of the variance in the desire to remain nonpregnant. The lengthy research instrument was reduced to an 8-item screening tool without loss of psychometric integrity or explanatory power. Childbearing expectations reflect distinct concepts and account for a significant portion of the variance in the desire to remain nonpregnant during adolescence. Thus the 8-item screening tool we validated might be used to formulate a differential diagnosis for the enigmatic behavior of teens who say they do not "want" to become pregnant but do not "mind" doing so enough to try to avoid conceiving by default.

  14. An instrument to assess subjective task value beliefs regarding the decision to pursue postgraduate training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemeier, Nicholas E; Murawski, Matthew M

    2014-02-12

    To develop and validate an instrument to assess subjective ratings of the perceived value of various postgraduate training paths followed using expectancy-value as a theoretical framework; and to explore differences in value beliefs across type of postgraduate training pursued and type of pharmacy training completed prior to postgraduate training. A survey instrument was developed to sample 4 theoretical domains of subjective task value: intrinsic value, attainment value, utility value, and perceived cost. Retrospective self-report methodology was employed to examine respondents' (N=1,148) subjective task value beliefs specific to their highest level of postgraduate training completed. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analytic techniques were used to evaluate and validate value belief constructs. Intrinsic, attainment, utility, cost, and financial value constructs resulted from exploratory factor analysis. Cross-validation resulted in a 26-item instrument that demonstrated good model fit. Differences in value beliefs were noted across type of postgraduate training pursued and pharmacy training characteristics. The Postgraduate Training Value Instrument demonstrated evidence of reliability and construct validity. The survey instrument can be used to assess value beliefs regarding multiple postgraduate training options in pharmacy and potentially inform targeted recruiting of individuals to those paths best matching their own value beliefs.

  15. Diverging expectations in buyer-seller relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Poul Houman; Christensen, Poul Rind; Damgaard, Torben

    2009-01-01

    Many firms assume that outsourcing partnerships may allow them to strengthen their overall competitiveness. Lured by its intuitive appeal, several enter into such partnerships, only to realize that they represent a marginal rather than a magical solution to their quest for increasing market...... performance. We explore the proposed impact of diverging relationship norms on relationship expectations using data from an ongoing field study of Danish buyers and Chinese suppliers. We link these diverging expectations to the business practices of Danish buyers and Chinese and their institutional contexts...

  16. Energy Data Base: subject categories and scope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bost, D.E.

    1985-03-01

    The subject scope of the Energy Data Base (EDB) encompasses all DOE-sponsored research. Broadly defined, EDB subject scope includes all technological aspects of energy production, conversion, and efficient utilization, and the economic, social, and political aspects as well. Scope notes are provided to define the extent of interest in certain subject areas, particularly areas of basic research. Cross references between categories are provided to aid both the categorization of information and its retrieval. Citations entered into DOE's computerized bibliographic information system are assigned six-digit subject category numbers to broadly group information for storage, retrieval, and manipulation. These numbers are used in the preparation of printed documents, such as bibliographies and abstract journals, to arrange the citations and to aid searching on the DOE/RECON on-line system

  17. Entrez Programming Utilities

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Entrez Programming Utilities (E-utilities) are a set of eight server-side programs that provide a stable interface into the Entrez query and database system at...

  18. Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez-Silva, Hugo; Ni, Huan

    2010-01-01

    Expected longevity is an important factor influencing older individuals’ decisions such as consumption, savings, purchase of life insurance and annuities, claiming of Social Security benefits, and labor supply. It has also been shown to be a good predictor of actual longevity, which in turn is highly correlated with health status. A relatively new literature on health investments under uncertainty, which builds upon the seminal work by Grossman (1972), has directly linked longevity with characteristics, behaviors, and decisions by utility maximizing agents. Our empirical model can be understood within that theoretical framework as estimating a production function of longevity. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, we directly incorporate health dynamics in explaining the variation in expected longevities, and compare two alternative measures of health dynamics: the self-reported health change, and the computed health change based on self-reports of health status. In 38% of the reports in our sample, computed health changes are inconsistent with the direct report on health changes over time. And another 15% of the sample can suffer from information losses if computed changes are used to assess changes in actual health. These potentially serious problems raise doubts regarding the use and interpretation of the computed health changes and even the lagged measures of self-reported health as controls for health dynamics in a variety of empirical settings. Our empirical results, controlling for both subjective and objective measures of health status and unobserved heterogeneity in reporting, suggest that self-reported health changes are a preferred measure of health dynamics. PMID:18187217

  19. Home care technology through an ability expectation lens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolbring, Gregor; Lashewicz, Bonnie

    2014-06-20

    Home care is on the rise, and its delivery is increasingly reliant on an expanding variety of health technologies ranging from computers to telephone "health apps" to social robots. These technologies are most often predicated on expectations that people in their homes (1) can actively interact with these technologies and (2) are willing to submit to the action of the technology in their home. Our purpose is to use an "ability expectations" lens to bring together, and provide some synthesis of, the types of utility and disadvantages that can arise for people with disabilities in relation to home care technology development and use. We searched the academic databases Scopus, Web of Science, EBSCO ALL, IEEE Xplore, and Compendex to collect articles that had the term "home care technology" in the abstract or as a topic (in the case of Web of Science). We also used our background knowledge and related academic literature pertaining to self-diagnosis, health monitoring, companionship, health information gathering, and care. We examined background articles and articles collected through our home care technology search in terms of ability expectations assumed in the presentation of home care technologies, or discussed in relation to home care technologies. While advances in health care support are made possible through emerging technologies, we urge critical examination of such technologies in terms of implications for the rights and dignity of people with diverse abilities. Specifically, we see potential for technologies to result in new forms of exclusion and powerlessness. Ableism influences choices made by funders, policy makers, and the public in the development and use of home health technologies and impacts how people with disabilities are served and how useful health support technologies will be for them. We urge continued critical examination of technology development and use according to ability expectations, and we recommend increasing incorporation of

  20. Adolescent expectations of early death predict adult risk behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quynh C Nguyen

    Full Text Available Only a handful of public health studies have investigated expectations of early death among adolescents. Associations have been found between these expectations and risk behaviors in adolescence. However, these beliefs may not only predict worse adolescent outcomes, but worse trajectories in health with ties to negative outcomes that endure into young adulthood. The objectives of this study were to investigate perceived chances of living to age 35 (Perceived Survival Expectations, PSE as a predictor of suicidal ideation, suicide attempt and substance use in young adulthood. We examined the predictive capacity of PSE on future suicidal ideation/attempt after accounting for sociodemographics, depressive symptoms, and history of suicide among family and friends to more fully assess its unique contribution to suicide risk. We investigated the influence of PSE on legal and illegal substance use and varying levels of substance use. We utilized the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health initiated in 1994-95 among 20,745 adolescents in grades 7-12 with follow-up interviews in 1996 (Wave II, 2001-02 (Wave III and 2008 (Wave IV; ages 24-32. Compared to those who were almost certain of living to age 35, perceiving a 50-50 or less chance of living to age 35 at Waves I or III predicted suicide attempt and ideation as well as regular substance use (i.e., exceeding daily limits for moderate drinking; smoking ≥ a pack/day; and using illicit substances other than marijuana at least weekly at Wave IV. Associations between PSE and detrimental adult outcomes were particularly strong for those reporting persistently low PSE at both Waves I and III. Low PSE at Wave I or Wave III was also related to a doubling and tripling, respectively, of death rates in young adulthood. Long-term and wide-ranging ties between PSE and detrimental outcomes suggest these expectations may contribute to identifying at-risk youth.

  1. Advancing the expectancy concept via the interplay between theory and research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Boca, Frances K; Darkes, Jack; Goldman, Mark S; Smith, Gregory T

    2002-06-01

    Four papers from a 2001 Research Society on Alcoholism symposium on expectancy theory and research are summarized. The symposium contributors describe recent advances in expectancy theory and discuss their implications for assessment and for understanding the processes of development and change in the behavioral domain of alcohol use. First, findings are integrated across the diverse domains in which the expectancy concept has been applied. Second, the implications of expectancy theory for the measurement of expectancy structure and process are examined. Third, research and theory regarding alcohol expectancy development and change are presented, with an emphasis on the role of expectancies as mediators of known antecedents of drinking. Finally, an experimental procedure for investigating the causal role of expectancies is described, together with its implications for theory testing and prevention or intervention programming. Collectively, the symposium contributions demonstrate the utility of an integrated expectancy theory for the generation of innovative research operations and new insights regarding behavior development and change. Consistent with the notion of consilience, expectancy theory has demonstrated a convergence of findings across different levels of analysis, as well as across different operations, methods, and research designs.

  2. College for some to college for all: social background, occupational expectations, and educational expectations over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyette, Kimberly A

    2008-06-01

    The educational expectations of 10th-graders have dramatically increased from 1980 to 2002. Their rise is attributable in part to the changing educational composition of students' parents and related to the educational profiles of their expected occupations. Students whose parents have gone to college are more likely to attend college themselves, and students expect occupations that are more prestigious in 2002 than in 1980. The educational requirements of particular occupation categories have risen only slightly. These analyses also reveal that educational expectations in recent cohorts are more loosely linked to social background and occupational plans than they were in 1980. The declining importance of parents' background and the decoupling of educational and occupational plans, in addition to a strong and significant effect of cohort on educational expectations, suggest that the expectation of four-year college attainment is indeed becoming the norm.

  3. Great Expectations: How Role Expectations and Role Experiences Relate to Perceptions of Group Cohesion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Alex J; Eys, Mark A; Irving, P Gregory

    2016-04-01

    Many athletes experience a discrepancy between the roles they expect to fulfill and the roles they eventually occupy. Drawing from met expectations theory, we applied response surface methodology to examine how role expectations, in relation to role experiences, influence perceptions of group cohesion among Canadian Interuniversity Sport athletes (N = 153). On the basis of data from two time points, as athletes approached and exceeded their role contribution expectations, they reported higher perceptions of task cohesion. Furthermore, as athletes approached and exceeded their social involvement expectations, they reported higher perceptions of social cohesion. These response surface patterns-pertaining to task and social cohesion-were driven by the positive influence of role experiences. On the basis of the interplay between athletes' role experiences and their perception of the group environment, efforts to improve team dynamics may benefit from focusing on improving the quality of role experiences, in conjunction with developing realistic role expectations.

  4. Laboratory cost and utilization containment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, J W; Root, J M; White, D C

    1991-01-01

    The authors analyzed laboratory costs and utilization in 3,771 cases of Medicare inpatients admitted to a New England academic medical center ("the Hospital") from October 1, 1989 to September 30, 1990. The data were derived from the Hospital's Decision Resource System comprehensive data base. The authors established a historical reference point for laboratory costs as a percentage of total inpatient costs using 1981-82 Medicare claims data and cost report information. Inpatient laboratory costs were estimated at 9.5% of total inpatient costs for pre-Diagnostic Related Groups (DRGs) Medicare discharges. Using this reference point and adjusting for the Hospital's 1990 case mix, the "expected" laboratory cost was 9.3% of total cost. In fact, the cost averaged 11.5% (i.e., 24% above the expected cost level), and costs represented an even greater percentage of DRG reimbursement at 12.9%. If we regard the reimbursement as a total cost target (to eliminate losses from Medicare), then that 12.9% is 39% above the "expected" laboratory proportion of 9.3%. The Hospital lost an average of $1,091 on each DRG inpatient. The laboratory contributed 29% to this loss per case. Compared to other large hospitals, the Hospital was slightly (3%) above the mean direct cost per on-site test and significantly (58%) above the mean number of inpatient tests per inpatient day compared to large teaching hospitals. The findings suggest that careful laboratory cost analyses will become increasingly important as the proportion of patients reimbursed in a fixed manner grows. The future may hold a prospective zero-based laboratory budgeting process based on predictable patterns of DRG admissions or other fixed-reimbursement admission and laboratory utilization patterns.

  5. A multiresolution model of rhythmic expectancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smith, L.M.; Honing, H.; Miyazaki, K.; Hiraga, Y.; Adachi, M.; Nakajima, Y.; Tsuzaki, M.

    2008-01-01

    We describe a computational model of rhythmic cognition that predicts expected onset times. A dynamic representation of musical rhythm, the multiresolution analysis using the continuous wavelet transform is used. This representation decomposes the temporal structure of a musical rhythm into time

  6. Expecting Too Much of Performance Pay?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Susan Moore; Papay, John P.

    2010-01-01

    Pay for performance is not a new idea, and reformers should not ignore the dismal record of merit pay over the past century. Initially adopted with a flourish of expectations during several waves of popularity in the past, every plan eventually fell into disuse. These plans proved to be unexpectedly costly and cumbersome to run. They often…

  7. Characterizing Student Expectations: A Small Empirical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warwick, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the results of a small empirical study (n = 130), in which undergraduate students in the Business Faculty of a UK university were asked to express views and expectations relating to the study of a mathematics. Factor analysis is used to identify latent variables emerging from clusters of the measured variables and these are…

  8. Provider expectations and father involvement: learning from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-12-17

    Dec 17, 2013 ... in Gauteng's poor and black communities with fathers that did not ... affect fathers' ability to live up to provider expectations. ... On the contrary, father absence can exacerbate household poverty and “can ... socio-emotional development of the children, although such effects are not uniformly .... explanation.

  9. Expected energy production evaluation for photovoltaic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Yi; Østergaard, Jacob; Peng, Wang

    2011-01-01

    A photovoltaic (PV) system consists of many solar panels, which are connected in series, parallel or a combination of both. Energy production for the PV system with various configurations is different. In this paper, a methodology is developed to evaluate and analyze the expected energy production...

  10. Enhanced Patient Expectant and Antiemetic Drug Efficacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-07-01

    Breast Cancer Nausea and Vomiting Expectancy Patient Information Antiemetic Side Effect 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 15 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY ...CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT Unclassified 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE Unclassified 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT...5-HT3 receptor antagonist class of antiemetics (ondansetron, granisetron , tropisitron) have greatly reduced chemotherapy-related vomiting, this has

  11. Enhanced Patient Expectation and Antiemetic Drug Efficacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-07-01

    NUMBER OF PAGES 15 Breast Cancer Expectancy Antiemetic Nausea and Vomiting Patient Information Side Effect 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18... SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT OF REPORT PAGE OF ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified...by the introduction of the 5-HT 3 receptor antagonist class of antiemetics (ondansetron, granisetron , tropisitron) have greatly reduced chemotherapy

  12. Expectations and voluntary attrition in nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Hugh

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a series of findings generated during a larger study which aimed to develop a theoretical understanding of the reasons why nursing students voluntarily leave pre-registration nursing programmes. In this study, significant incongruence was found to exist between student expectations of pre-registration nursing programmes and the reality of these programmes following entry. The resulting dissonance was identified as an important factor in student decisions to voluntarily withdraw. A single case study design was selected to explore the causes of voluntary attrition in nursing students within a School of Nursing and Midwifery. The study population was obtained through purposeful sampling and consisted of 15 students who had previously voluntarily withdrawn from pre-registration nursing programmes. A semi-structured interview method was used to collect data from study participants. The interview schedule developed for use in the study reflected the key components of the conceptual model of higher education (HE) student attrition (Tinto, 1975, 1987, 1993). All interviews were tape recorded to facilitate later transcription. The Cyclical or Interactive Model of Qualitative Research (Miles and Huberman, 1994) was used to analyse data collected from study participants. This paper describes the unrealistic range of expectations which nursing students have of nursing, the information sources and experiences which inform student expectations and how ambiguous expectations contributed to voluntarily attrition. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Matching Expectations for Successful University Student Volunteering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paull, Megan; Omari, Maryam; MacCallum, Judith; Young, Susan; Walker, Gabrielle; Holmes, Kirsten; Haski-Leventha, Debbie; Scott, Rowena

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of expectation formation and matching for university student volunteers and their hosts. Design/methodology/approach: This research involved a multi-stage data collection process including interviews with student volunteers, and university and host representatives from six…

  14. Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Massaro, D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper derives a general New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro-foundations underpinning the model. The resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case. We specify a

  15. Forecasting differences in life expectancy by education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.H.M. Van Baal (Pieter); F. Peters (Frederik); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractForecasts of life expectancy (LE) have fuelled debates about the sustainability and dependability of pension and healthcare systems. Of relevance to these debates are inequalities in LE by education. In this paper, we present a method of forecasting LE for different educational groups

  16. Life expectancies for individuals with psychiatric diagnoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannerz, H; Borgå, P; Borritz, M

    2001-09-01

    The aim of the study was to estimate life expectancies in different diagnostic groups for individuals treated as inpatients at Swedish psychiatric clinics. All individuals, older than 18 y and alive on the first of January 1983, who had been registered in the National Hospital Discharge Registry by a psychiatric clinic in 1978-82, were monitored for mortality during 1983 by using the National Cause of Death Registry. The study group consisted of 91 385 men and 77 217 women. The patients were divided into nine diagnostic groups according to the principal diagnosis registered at the latest discharge. Actuarial mathematics was used to construct life expectancy tables, which present the number of years expected to live, by gender and diagnostic group. Expectancies of life were significantly shortened for both genders and in all nine diagnostic groups (with one exception). Mental disorders in general are life shortening. This fact should be recognised in community health when setting health priorities. It should also be addressed in curricula as well as in treatment and preventive programmes.

  17. Binary compact object inspiral: Detection expectations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... events/yr. These predictions, for the first time, bring the expectations for DNS detections by initial LIGO .... our galactic event rate out to the local group. ..... VK thanks her collaborators in the work reviewed here: C Kim, P Grandclément,. C Ihm ...

  18. Macroeconomics after Two Decades of Rational Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Bennett T.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses real business cycle analysis, growth theory, and other economic concepts in the context of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Focuses on post-1982 research. Concludes that the rejuvenation of growth analysis is an encouraging development because it could lead to changes in welfare policy. (CFR)

  19. Expectant Parent Classes: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beebe, E. Rick

    1978-01-01

    Mental health problems among children resulting from poor parenting, a high neonatal death rate, and a low level of medical education in the county provided impetus for developing a primary prevention program--Expectant Parent Program. This article summarizes the development, content, staff, funding, and results of the program. (Author)

  20. Expectation Levels in Dictionary Consultation and Compilation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dictionary consultation and compilation is a two-way engagement between two parties, namely a dictionary user and a lexicographer. How well users cope with looking up words in a Bantu language dictionary and to what extent their expectations are met, depends on their consultation skills, their knowledge of the structure ...

  1. Expectation Levels in Dictionary Consultation and Compilation*

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract: Dictionary consultation and compilation is a two-way engagement between two par- ties, namely a dictionary user and a lexicographer. How well users cope with looking up words in a Bantu language dictionary and to what extent their expectations are met, depends on their con- sultation skills, their knowledge of ...

  2. Diversity in Literary Response: Revisiting Gender Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brendler, Beth M.

    2014-01-01

    Drawing on and reexamining theories on gender and literacy, derived from research performed between 1974 and 2002, this qualitative study explored the gender assumptions and expectations of Language Arts teachers in a graduate level adolescent literature course at a university in the Midwestern United States. The theoretical framework was…

  3. Training Therapists about Client Expectations of Psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soley, Georgia; Marshall, Renee; Chambliss, Catherine

    Research has indicated that premature termination of therapy is sometimes due to a conflict in goal and outcome expectations between therapists and family members of clients. The present study requested both therapists and parents of child clients to complete questionnaires to determine if there is congruence between therapist and parental…

  4. Ambiguous Expectations for Intersectoral Action for Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heering Holt, Ditte; Waldorff, Susanne Boch; Tjørnhøj-Thomsen, Tine

    2018-01-01

    of such ideas has proven difficult though. In this paper we argue that neo-institutional theory can help us conceptualize implementation challenges by pointing to implicit expectations and contradictions associated with the ISA idea itself. With Denmark as empirical case, we conducted a document analysis...

  5. Features Students Really Expect from Learning Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Clara; Ifenthaler, Dirk

    2016-01-01

    In higher education settings more and more learning is facilitated through online learning environments. To support and understand students' learning processes better, learning analytics offers a promising approach. The purpose of this study was to investigate students' expectations toward features of learning analytics systems. In a first…

  6. Patient expectancy and post-chemotherapy nausea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Colagiuri, Ben; Zachariae, Robert

    2010-01-01

    to determine the strength of the relationship between expectancy and post-chemotherapy nausea. METHODS: The findings from 17 relevant studies (n = 2,400) identified through systematic searches of Medline, PsycInfo, and Cinhal were analyzed using a combination of meta-analytic techniques. RESULTS: Overall...

  7. Knee arthroplasty: are patients' expectations fulfilled?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsdotter, Anna K; Toksvig-Larsen, Sören; Roos, Ewa

    2009-01-01

    to pain and physical function after knee arthroplasty. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 102 patients (39 men) with knee osteoarthritis and who were assigned for TKR (mean age 71 (51-86) years) were investigated with KOOS, SF-36, and additional questions concerning physical activity level, expectations, satisfaction...

  8. Harnessing placebo effects by targeting expectancies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peerdeman, K.J.

    2018-01-01

    Placebo effects are health improvements, for example pain reduction, due to an inert treatment. These effects are typically ascribed to a person’s expectations about the beneficial outcomes of the placebo. The literature and experimental research in the current dissertation shows that

  9. Gendered Expectations for Leadership in Libraries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Olin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In Brief Despite significant gains in representation at the administration level, there is still a disparity between the percentage of women in our profession and women as library leaders. Additionally, even when women attain leadership roles, even top positions in libraries, there are still hurdles in the shape of gendered expectations. This article examines the […

  10. Multiple Equilibria in Noisy Rational Expectations Economies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palvolgyi, Domotor; Venter, Gyuri

    This paper studies equilibrium uniqueness in standard noisy rational expectations economies with asymmetric or differential information a la Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) and Hellwig (1980). We show that the standard linear equilibrium of Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is the unique equilibrium...

  11. The mediating role of parental expectations in culture and well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oishi, Shigehiro; Sullivan, Helen W

    2005-10-01

    In two studies, we examined the role of perceived fulfillment of parental expectations in the subjective well-being of college students. In Study 1, we found that American college students reported having higher levels of life satisfaction and self-esteem than did Japanese college students. American college students also reported having fulfilled parental expectations to a greater degree than did Japanese college students. Most importantly, the cultural difference in well-being was mediated by perceived fulfillment of parental expectations. In Study 2, we replicated the mediational finding with Asian American and European American college students. Asian American participants also perceived their parents' expectations about their academic performance to be more specific than did European Americans, which was associated with the cultural difference in perceived fulfillment of parental expectations. In short, perceived parental expectations play an important role in the cultural difference in the well-being of Asians and European Americans.

  12. Computational-Model-Based Analysis of Context Effects on Harmonic Expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morimoto, Satoshi; Remijn, Gerard B; Nakajima, Yoshitaka

    2016-01-01

    Expectancy for an upcoming musical chord, harmonic expectancy, is supposedly based on automatic activation of tonal knowledge. Since previous studies implicitly relied on interpretations based on Western music theory, the underlying computational processes involved in harmonic expectancy and how it relates to tonality need further clarification. In particular, short chord sequences which cannot lead to unique keys are difficult to interpret in music theory. In this study, we examined effects of preceding chords on harmonic expectancy from a computational perspective, using stochastic modeling. We conducted a behavioral experiment, in which participants listened to short chord sequences and evaluated the subjective relatedness of the last chord to the preceding ones. Based on these judgments, we built stochastic models of the computational process underlying harmonic expectancy. Following this, we compared the explanatory power of the models. Our results imply that, even when listening to short chord sequences, internally constructed and updated tonal assumptions determine the expectancy of the upcoming chord.

  13. Vision 2021. The utilities future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liere, J van [KEMA, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    1996-12-01

    The electricity industry is gradually making the transition to a free market economy characterized by competition. With the arrival of a more market-oriented structure, the electricity companies have taken measures to reduce costs while retaining reliability and safety of the production and distribution. Today the majority of these efforts are oriented towards optimizing the scope and the structure of the organizations and towards streamlining internal processes in order to improve productivity. Throughout the world, the increasing competition among utilities is accompanied by the unbundling of production, transport, distribution and customer service functions. There is a remarkable similarity between the transitions in the computer industry some years ago (from main frame to personal PC`s) and in the electric utility industry today. The new structure is expected to be less centralized and more dispersed. In the dispersed generation concept the locally deployed power plant must become smaller, more flexible, more efficient and less expensive than today`s power plants. Power generation is gradually changing from a steam cycle (Rankine cycle) via the combined cycle to the gas cycle (Brayton cycle). The fuel used to power the gas turbine is expected to change in the future from high calorific to low calorific gas, generated from biomass, waste, oil residues, blast furnaces, coal, etc. Five new areas to be addressed have been identified that can be characterized as follows: (a) improved utilization of capital-intensive production resources to reduce costs, (b) electrification and the supply of heat to increase sales and market share, (c) sustainable developments to broaden our future resource base, (d) improved efficiency based on the Brayton cycle to increase flexibility, (e) development of energy services with new secondary services to stay in the market. (EG) 10 refs.

  14. Expected commodity returns and pricing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortazar, Gonzalo; Kovacevic, Ivo; Schwartz, Eduardo S.

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic models of commodity prices have evolved considerably in terms of their structure and the number and interpretation of the state variables that model the underlying risk. Using multiple factors, different specifications and modern estimation techniques, these models have gained wide acceptance because of their success in accurately fitting the observed commodity futures' term structures and their dynamics. It is not well emphasized however that these models, in addition to providing the risk neutral distribution of future spot prices, also provide their true distribution. While the parameters of the risk neutral distribution are estimated more precisely and are usually statistically significant, some of the parameters of the true distribution are typically measured with large errors and are statistically insignificant. In this paper we argue that to increase the reliability of commodity pricing models, and therefore their use by practitioners, some of their parameters — in particular the risk premium parameters — should be obtained from other sources and we show that this can be done without losing any precision in the pricing of futures contracts. We show how the risk premium parameters can be obtained from estimations of expected futures returns and provide alternative procedures for estimating these expected futures returns. - Highlights: • Simple methodology to improve the performance of commodity pricing models • New information about commodity futures expected return is added to the estimation. • No significant effect in pricing futures contracts is observed. • More reliable commodity pricing model's expected returns are obtained. • Methodology is open to any expected futures return model preferred by practitioner

  15. Associated Information Increases Subjective Perception of Duration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweitzer, Richard; Trapp, Sabrina; Bar, Moshe

    2017-08-01

    Our sense of time is prone to various biases. For instance, one factor that can dilate an event's perceived duration is the violation of predictions; when a series of repeated stimuli is interrupted by an unpredictable oddball. On the other hand, when the probability of a repetition itself is manipulated, predictable conditions can also increase estimated duration. This suggests that manipulations of expectations have different or even opposing effects on time perception. In previous studies, expectations were generated because stimuli were repeated or because the likelihood of a sequence or a repetition was varied. In the natural environment, however, expectations are often built via associative processes, for example, the context of a kitchen promotes the expectation of plates, appliances, and other associated objects. Here, we manipulated such association-based expectations by using oddballs that were either contextually associated or nonassociated with the standard items. We find that duration was more strongly overestimated for contextually associated oddballs. We reason that top-down attention is biased toward associated information, and thereby dilates subjective duration for associated oddballs. Based on this finding, we propose an interplay between top-down attention and predictive processing in the perception of time.

  16. Visually suboptimal bananas: How ripeness affects consumer expectation and perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symmank, Claudia; Zahn, Susann; Rohm, Harald

    2018-01-01

    One reason for the significant amount of food that is wasted in developed countries is that consumers often expect visually suboptimal food as being less palatable. Using bananas as example, the objective of this study was to determine how appearance affects consumer overall liking, the rating of sensory attributes, purchase intention, and the intended use of bananas. The ripeness degree (RD) of the samples was adjusted to RD 5 (control) and RD 7 (more ripened, visually suboptimal). After preliminary experiments, a total of 233 participants were asked to judge their satisfaction with the intensity of sensory attributes that referred to flavor, taste, and texture using just-about-right scales. Subjects who received peeled samples were asked after tasting, whereas subjects who received unpeeled bananas judged expectation and, after peeling and tasting, perception. Expected overall liking and purchase intention were significantly lower for RD 7 bananas. Purchase intention was still significantly different between RD 5 and RD 7 after tasting, whereas no difference in overall liking was observed. Significant differences between RD 5 and RD 7 were observed when asking participants for their intended use of the bananas. Concerning the sensory attributes, penalty analysis revealed that only the firmness of the RD 7 bananas was still not just-about-right after tasting. The importance that consumers attribute to the shelf-life of food had a pronounced impact on purchase intention of bananas with different ripeness degree. In the case of suboptimal bananas, the results demonstrate a positive relationship between the sensory perception and overall liking and purchase intention. Convincing consumers that visually suboptimal food is still tasty is of high relevance for recommending different ways of communication. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. An examination of coping styles and expectations for whiplash injury in Germany: comparison with Canadian data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Robert; Pieschl, Stephanie

    2011-09-01

    Cross-sectional cohort study: to examine concurrent expectations and coping style for whiplash injury in injury-naive subjects in Germany. Studies suggest the recovery rate from whiplash injury may be faster in Germany than in Canada. Canadians have a high expectation for chronic pain following whiplash injury and Germans do not. Expectation of recovery not only predicts recovery in whiplash victims but is also known to correlate with coping style. The Vanderbilt Pain Management Inventory was administered to university students and staff in Germany. Subjects who had not yet experienced whiplash injury were given a vignette concerning a neck sprain (whiplash injury) in a motor vehicle collision and were asked to indicate how likely they were to have thoughts or behaviours indicated in the coping style questionnaire. Subjects also completed expectation questionnaires regarding whiplash injury. Sixteen percent of subjects held an expectation of chronic neck or back pain after whiplash injury. The mean active coping style score was 27.4±3.6 (40 is the maximum score for active coping). The mean passive coping style score was 27.0±6.3 (50 is the maximum score for passive coping). Coping style scores and patterns were not different from those previously observed in Canadian studies, but there was no correlation between expectations and coping style among German subjects, a finding that differs from Canadian studies. Although expectations and coping styles may interact or be co-modifiers in the outcomes of whiplash injury in Canadian whiplash victims, in Germany, despite having similar coping styles to Canadians, the lack of expectation for chronic pain may be protective from the effect of passive coping styles. Further studies of coping style as an aetiologic factor in the chronic whiplash syndrome are needed.

  18. A cross-cultural comparison between Canada and Germany of symptom expectation for whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Robert; Lang, Christoph

    2005-02-01

    Symptom expectation for whiplash injury has been shown to be low in countries with low rates of chronic whiplash when compared with countries like Canada, where chronic whiplash is common. The objective of the current study is to compare the frequency and nature of expected "whiplash" symptoms in Germany with that in Canada. A symptom checklist was administered to two subject groups selected from local companies in Germany and Canada. Subjects were asked to imagine having suffered a neck sprain (whiplash injury) with no loss of consciousness in a motor vehicle collision and to check which, of a variety of symptoms, they would expect might arise from the injury. For symptoms they anticipated, they were asked to select the period of time they expected those symptoms to persist. In both groups, the pattern of acute symptoms anticipated closely resembled the symptoms of acute whiplash victims, but 50% of Canadians also anticipated symptoms to last months or years, whereas few German subjects selected any symptoms as likely to persist. In Germany, despite the documented occurrence of neck sprain symptoms in individuals following motor vehicle collisions, there is a very low rate of expectation of any sequelae from this injury. The current or previous aspects of society that underlie this remain uncertain. This lack of expectation of chronicity in Germany may, in part, determine the low prevalence of the chronic whiplash syndrome there. Further studies of symptom expectation as an etiologic factor in the chronic whiplash syndrome are needed.

  19. Estimating the relative utility of screening mammography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbey, Craig K; Eckstein, Miguel P; Boone, John M

    2013-05-01

    The concept of diagnostic utility is a fundamental component of signal detection theory, going back to some of its earliest works. Attaching utility values to the various possible outcomes of a diagnostic test should, in principle, lead to meaningful approaches to evaluating and comparing such systems. However, in many areas of medical imaging, utility is not used because it is presumed to be unknown. In this work, we estimate relative utility (the utility benefit of a detection relative to that of a correct rejection) for screening mammography using its known relation to the slope of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve at the optimal operating point. The approach assumes that the clinical operating point is optimal for the goal of maximizing expected utility and therefore the slope at this point implies a value of relative utility for the diagnostic task, for known disease prevalence. We examine utility estimation in the context of screening mammography using the Digital Mammographic Imaging Screening Trials (DMIST) data. We show how various conditions can influence the estimated relative utility, including characteristics of the rating scale, verification time, probability model, and scope of the ROC curve fit. Relative utility estimates range from 66 to 227. We argue for one particular set of conditions that results in a relative utility estimate of 162 (±14%). This is broadly consistent with values in screening mammography determined previously by other means. At the disease prevalence found in the DMIST study (0.59% at 365-day verification), optimal ROC slopes are near unity, suggesting that utility-based assessments of screening mammography will be similar to those found using Youden's index.

  20. Subjective knowledge and fear appeal effectiveness: implications for message design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabi, Robin L; Roskos-Ewoldsen, David; Carpentier, Francesca Dillman

    2008-01-01

    This research investigates the role of perceived health knowledge on the effectiveness of fear-based persuasive appeals. Undergraduates (N = 263) read a strong fear, weak fear, or efficacy-only message encouraging breast or testicular self-examination. As expected, results indicated that men high in subjective knowledge were less reactant and more persuaded by the efficacy-only message whereas those low in subjective knowledge did not evidence this pattern. Contrary to expectation, women high in subjective knowledge had comparable reactions to each of the 3 messages. Implications for fear appeal theory and message design are discussed.

  1. Goal Expectations as Predictors of Retirement Intentions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brougham, Ruby R.; Walsh, David A.

    2005-01-01

    The current study explored the contribution of personal goals to retirement decisions. A SMARTER methodology (to assess multiattribute utility) and taxonomy of human goals were used to investigate the relationship between older workers' personal goals and their retirement intentions. Two hundred and fifty-one employees of a large university,…

  2. Vision as subjective perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reppas, J.B.; Dale, A.; Sereno, M.; Tootell, R.

    1996-01-01

    The human brain is not very different of the monkey's one: at least, its visual cortex is organized as a similar scheme. Specialized areas in the movement analysis are found and others in the forms perception. In this work, the author tries to answer to the following questions: 1)why so many visual areas? What are exactly their role in vision? Thirteen years of experimentation have not allowed to answer to these questions. The cerebral NMR imaging gives the opportunity of understanding the subjective perception of the visual world. One step which is particularly described in this work is to know how the visual cortex reacts to the optical illusions. (O.M.)

  3. The Subjectivity of Participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nissen, Morten

    of a community of social/youth workers in Copenhagen between 1987 and 2003, who developed a pedagogy through creating collectives and mobilizing young people as participants. The theoretical and practical traditions are combined in a unique methodology viewing research as a contentious modeling of prototypical......What is a 'we' – a collective – and how can we use such communal self-knowledge to help people? This book is about collectivity, participation, and subjectivity – and about the social theories that may help us understand these matters. It also seeks to learn from the innovative practices and ideas...

  4. Concepts of Present Self, Expected Self, and Ideal Self in Vocational Preferences and Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgoyne, Peter H.

    1979-01-01

    Investigated the hypotheses that similarity of ideal self and occupational stereotypes is important in determining vocational preferences of adolescents, while similarity between expected self and occupational stereotypes is important in determining occupational expectations. Findings supported the idea that ideal self played an important role in…

  5. Why electric utilities and affiliates are handicapped in a partly regulated and partly competitive environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    St.Marie, S.M.

    1999-11-01

    As the electric utility industry continues to go through the process of restructuring, utilities are finding themselves operating not only as regulated entities but also as firms that compete for customers and sales. Some services, including services associated with distribution, are being unbundled or peeled off from the core of operations and, where possible, are being opened to competition. But these partly regulated and partly competitive areas are treacherous for utilities and their affiliates, who will be handicapped in their competitive efforts and subject to constraints not placed on their competitors. There are good reasons why such difficulties should be expected. And there are guidelines for pricing and competitive positioning that can assist in avoiding the worst problems. The first step is to recognize the archetypes of the regulated electric distribution utility and the competitive firm. In plotting their deregulation strategies, utilities and their affiliates must recognize that they will continue to be disadvantaged by regulators who are more concerned with keeping them in check than freeing them to compete.

  6. Why electric utilities and affiliates are handicapped in a partly regulated and partly competitive environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    St Marie, S.M.

    1999-01-01

    As the electric utility industry continues to go through the process of restructuring, utilities are finding themselves operating not only as regulated entities but also as firms that compete for customers and sales. Some services, including services associated with distribution, are being unbundled or peeled off from the core of operations and, where possible, are being opened to competition. But these partly regulated and partly competitive areas are treacherous for utilities and their affiliates, who will be handicapped in their competitive efforts and subject to constraints not placed on their competitors. There are good reasons why such difficulties should be expected. And there are guidelines for pricing and competitive positioning that can assist in avoiding the worst problems. The first step is to recognize the archetypes of the regulated electric distribution utility and the competitive firm. In plotting their deregulation strategies, utilities and their affiliates must recognize that they will continue to be disadvantaged by regulators who are more concerned with keeping them in check than freeing them to compete

  7. The Large Hadron Collider - Expectations and Reality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Litov, Leandar

    2010-01-01

    The Large Hadron Colider (LHC) is the biggest particle accelerator in the world designed to accelerate protons and heavy ions to extremely high energies. The four detector complexes installed around the beam crossing points, are expected to shed light on some of the more fundamental questions about our Universe ever asked--what are the fundamental constituents of the matter, what are the forces controlling their behavior and what is the structure of the space-time. In November, the LHC will be restarted and the detector complexes are expected to commence taking the first collision data. The physical motivation for the LHC experimental program and some open questions of the Standard Model of strong and electroweak interactions (SM) are discussed. Special attention is paid to observation of signatures for physics beyond the SM and the discovery potential of the LHC experiments is commented. One of the two general-purpose detector complexes (CMS, the Compact Muon Solenoid) is described briefly.

  8. On Time with Minimal Expected Cost!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, Alexandre; Jensen, Peter Gjøl; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2014-01-01

    (Priced) timed games are two-player quantitative games involving an environment assumed to be completely antogonistic. Classical analysis consists in the synthesis of strategies ensuring safety, time-bounded or cost-bounded reachability objectives. Assuming a randomized environment, the (priced......) timed game essentially defines an infinite-state Markov (reward) decision proces. In this setting the objective is classically to find a strategy that will minimize the expected reachability cost, but with no guarantees on worst-case behaviour. In this paper, we provide efficient methods for computing...... reachability strategies that will both ensure worst case time-bounds as well as provide (near-) minimal expected cost. Our method extends the synthesis algorithms of the synthesis tool Uppaal-Tiga with suitable adapted reinforcement learning techniques, that exhibits several orders of magnitude improvements w...

  9. Information Characteristics and Errors in Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

    Behavioural finance theories draw on evidence from psychology that suggest that some people respond to information in a biased manner, and construct theories of inefficient markets. However, these biases are not always robust when tested in economic conditions, which casts doubt on their relevance...... to market efficiency. We design an economic experiment to test a psychological hypothesis of errors in expectations widely cited in finance, which states that, in violations of Bayes Rule, some people respond more forcefully to the strength of an information signal. The strength of a signal is how saliently...... it supports a specific hypothesis, as opposed to its weight, which is its predictive validity. We find that the strength-weight bias affects expectations, but that its magnitude is three times lower than originally reported in the psychology literature. This suggests that its impact on financial markets...

  10. Effective field equations for expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, R.D.

    1986-01-01

    We discuss functional methods which allow calculation of expectation values, rather than the usual in-out amplitudes, from a path integral. The technique, based on Schwinger's idea of summing over paths which go from the past to the future and then back to the past, provides effective field equations satisfied by the expectation value of the field. These equations are shown to be real and causal for a general theory up to two-loop order, and unitarity is checked to this order. These methods are applied to a simple quantum-mechanical example to illustrate the differences between the new formalism and the standard theory. When applied to the gravitational field, the new effective field equations should be useful for studies of quantum cosmology

  11. Eco friendly expectations and limitations in daycare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Husted, Mia

    This presentation elaborates on expectations and limitations of eco-friendly pedagogical responses to the sustainability crisis. The pedagogical perspectives on eco-friendly responses originates from an action research project involving pedagogues in day care centers and teachers at a University ...... College in Denmark. As part of the project they were asked to explore, elaborate and develop new pedagogical actions and perspectives related to future relationships between human beings and our common nature......This presentation elaborates on expectations and limitations of eco-friendly pedagogical responses to the sustainability crisis. The pedagogical perspectives on eco-friendly responses originates from an action research project involving pedagogues in day care centers and teachers at a University...

  12. Auctioning access to networks: evidence and expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDaniel, T.

    2003-01-01

    Under very strict assumptions the outcomes that make common auction designs theoretically attractive can be expected to emerge: goods will go to those who value them most and the allocation will maximize revenue for the auctioneer. In network industries such as electricity, gas, telecommunications, rail, and airlines where agents are of different sizes and incumbency these assumptions do not always apply for a number of reasons. For example, the auctioned product may be an intermediate good, bidders are not symmetric with respect to values and information, markets are mixed, and property rights are hard to define. We discuss why it is not straightforward to make theoretical predictions about expected outcomes for these industries and use the British gas industry to discuss the importance of competition and scarcity for auctions of network capacity. (Author)

  13. Subjective versus objective assessment of breast reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henseler, Helga; Smith, Joanna; Bowman, Adrian; Khambay, Balvinder S; Ju, Xiangyang; Ayoub, Ashraf; Ray, Arup K

    2013-05-01

    To date breast assessment has been conducted mainly subjectively. However lately validated objective three-dimensional (3D) imaging was developed. The study aimed to assess breast reconstruction subjectively and objectively and conduct a comparison. In forty-four patients after immediate unilateral breast reconstruction with solely the extended latissimus dorsi flap the breast was captured by validated 3D imaging method and standardized 2D photography. Breast symmetry was subjectively evaluated by six experts who applied the Harris score giving a mark of 1-4 for a poor to excellent result. An error study was conducted by examination of the intra and inter-observer agreement and agreement on controls. By Procrustes analysis an objective asymmetry score was obtained and compared to the subjective assessment. The subjective assessment showed that the inter-observer agreement was good or substantial (p-value: value: fair (p-values: 0.159, 0.134, 0.099) to substantial (p-value: 0.005) intra-observer agreement. The objective assessment revealed that the reconstructed breast showed a significantly smaller volume compared to the opposite side and that the average asymmetry score was 0.052, ranging from 0.019 to 0.136. When comparing the subjective and objective method the relationship between the two scores was highly significant. Subjective breast assessment lacked accuracy and reproducibility. This was the first error study of subjective breast assessment versus an objective validated 3D imaging method based on true 3D parameters. The substantial agreement between established subjective breast assessment and new validated objective method supported the value of the later and we expect its future role to expand. Copyright © 2013 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. 76 FR 49841 - Transmission Planning and Cost Allocation by Transmission Owning and Operating Public Utilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-11

    ... Commission-approved RTOs and ISOs. The Commission stated that it expected all non-public utility transmission... transmission planning processes that public utility transmission providers in regions outside of RTOs and ISOs...

  15. The expected availability of biomass in 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppejan, J.; De Boer-Meulman, P.D.M.

    2005-11-01

    The aim of the Dutch government is to produce 5% of the energy consumption in the Netherlands from renewable energy sources in the year 2010. According to the Plan of Activities for Biomass bio-energy could contribute 75-87 PJ. In this study attention is paid to the expected availability of biomass in order to meet the targets, taking into account biomass sources in the Netherlands and abroad [nl

  16. First Contact: Expectations of Beginning Astronomy Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, T. L.; Slater, T. F.

    1999-05-01

    Three hundred seven undergraduate students enrolled in Introductory Astronomy were surveyed at the beginning of class to determine their expectations for course content. The course serves as a survey of astronomy for non-science majors and is a distribution course for general education core requirements. The course has no prerequisites, meets three times each week for 50 minutes, and represents three semester credit hours. The university catalog describes the course with the title "PHYSICS 101 - Mysteries of the Sky" and the official course description is: a survey of the struggle to understand the Universe and our place therein. The structure, growth, methods, and limitations of science will be illustrated using the development of astronomy as a vehicle. Present day views of the Universe are presented. Two questions were asked as open response items: What made you decide to take this course? and What do you expect to learn in this course? The reasons that students cited to take the course, in order of frequency, were: interested in astronomy, interesting or fun sounding course, required general education fulfillment, recommendation by peer. Secondary reasons cited were required for major or minor, general interest in science, and was available in the schedule. Tertiary reasons listed were recommendation by advisor or orientation leader, inflate grade point average, and heard good things about the teacher. The students' expectations about what they would learn in the course were numerous. The most common objects listed, in order of frequency, were: stars, constellations, planets, galaxies, black holes, solar system, comets, galaxies, asteroids, moon, and Sun. More interesting were the aspects not specifically related to astronomy. These were weather, atmosphere, UFOs and the unexplained, generally things in the sky. A mid-course survey suggests that students expected to learn more constellations and that the topics would be less in-depth.

  17. Vacuum expectation value of twist fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belitsky, A. V.

    2017-09-01

    Twist fields emerge in a number of physical applications ranging from entanglement entropy to scattering amplitudes in four-dimensional gauge theories. In this work, their vacuum expectation values are studied in the path integral framework. By performing a gauge transformation, their correlation functions are reduced to field theory of matter fields in external Aharonov-Bohm vortices. The resulting functional determinants are then analyzed within the zeta-function regularization for the spectrum of Bessel zeros, and concise formulas are derived.

  18. Distributed computing environment monitoring and user expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cottrell, R.L.A.; Logg, C.A.

    1996-01-01

    This paper discusses the growing needs for distributed system monitoring and compares it to current practices. It then goes to identify the components of distributed system monitoring and shows how they are implemented and successfully used at one site today to address the Local area Network (WAN), and host monitoring. It shows how this monitoring can be used to develop realistic service level expectations and also identifies the costs. Finally, the paper briefly discusses the future challenges in network monitoring. (author)

  19. Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds

    OpenAIRE

    Jason G. Cummins; Kevin A. Hassett; Stephen D. Oliner

    1999-01-01

    We use earnings forecasts from securities analysts to construct more accurate measures of the fundamentals that affect the expected returns to investment. We find that investment responds significantly -- in both economic and statistical terms -- to our new measures of fundamentals. Our estimates imply that the elasticity of the investment-capital ratio with respect to a change in fundamentals is generally greater than unity. In addition, we find that internal funds are uncorrelated with inve...

  20. MOTIVASI: EXPECTANCY THEORY DAN PRODUKTIVITAS PENELITIAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raden Lestari Garnasih

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. The purpose of this study is to determine the productivity of research lecturers by using the approach of motivation expectancy theory. Primary data was obtained from 185 respondents ie lecturers in private universities in Pekanbaru city. Data analysis used in this research is multiple regression analysis. The results showed that the lecturer considered the very important thing from the extrinsic motivation that encouraged them to do the research was to get the improvement of functional position, and the lowest level of importance was to obtain the reduction of teaching burden. In view of the importance of intrinsic motivation, lecturers judge that satisfying the need to remain in the field of science today is of paramount importance, and the lowest level of importance as a driver of research is finding better work at other universities. Keywords. Motivation; Expectancy Theory; Research Productivity   Abstrak. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu untuk mengetahui produktivitas penelitian dosen dengan menggunakan pendekatan motivasi expectancy theory. Data primer diperoleh dari 185responden yaitu dosen yang ada di perguruan tinggi swasta di kota Pekanbaru. Analisis data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah analisis regresi berganda. Hasil penelitian menujukkan bahwa dosen menganggap hal yang sangat penting dari motivasi ekstrinsik yang menjadi pendorong mereka melakukan penelitian adalah memperoleh peningkatan jabatan fungsional, dan yang paling rendah tingkat kepentingannya adalah memperoleh pengurangan beban mengajar. Dilihat tingkat kepentingan dari  motivasi intrinsic, dosen menilai bahwa memuaskan kebutuhan untuk tetap pada bidang ilmu saat ini adalah yang sangat penting, dan yang paling rendah tingkat kepentingan sebagai pendorong melakukan penelitian adalah  menemukan pekerjaan yang lebih baik pada perguruan tinggi yang lain. Katakunci. Motivasi; Expectancy Theory; Produktivitas Penelitian.