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Sample records for subject area predicted

  1. Foveal avascular zone area in normal subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Xu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To measure the foveal avascular zone(FAZarea and to investigate the characteristics of the FAZ area in normal eyes, using optical coherence tomography(OCTangiography.METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study. The FAZ area was measured in 69 participants, for a total of 138 eyes, using RTVue-100 OCT. The relations between the FAZ area and the potential factors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate linear regression analysis. Differences between the right and left eyes were calculated, and values were compared by means of a paired t test. Pearson correlation analysis was performed to assess the relationships of the FAZ area between the right and left eyes. RESULTS: The mean FAZ area was 0.30±0.11mm2 in all subjects. For the male subjects, the mean FAZ area was 0.29±0.13mm2, and for the female subjects 0.31±0.09mm2, with no significant difference(t=-1.346,P=0.180. The FAZ area did not correlate with all the potential factors. The mean FAZ area in the right eye was 0.30±0.11mm2, and in the left eye was 0.30±0.10mm2,with no significant difference(P=0.943. There was a strong correlation between the right and left eyes for the FAZ area. CONCLUSION: OCT angiography is a noninvasive method of visualizing and measuring the FAZ area in normal subjects. The FAZ area does not correlate with old age, sex and other factors. It shows significant interocular symmetry in normal subjects.

  2. The effect of predictability on subjective duration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vani Pariyadath

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Events can sometimes appear longer or shorter in duration than other events of equal length. For example, in a repeated presentation of auditory or visual stimuli, an unexpected object of equivalent duration appears to last longer. Illusions of duration distortion beg an important question of time representation: when durations dilate or contract, does time in general slow down or speed up during that moment? In other words, what entailments do duration distortions have with respect to other timing judgments? We here show that when a sound or visual flicker is presented in conjunction with an unexpected visual stimulus, neither the pitch of the sound nor the frequency of the flicker is affected by the apparent duration dilation. This demonstrates that subjective time in general is not slowed; instead, duration judgments can be manipulated with no concurrent impact on other temporal judgments. Like spatial vision, time perception appears to be underpinned by a collaboration of separate neural mechanisms that usually work in concert but are separable. We further show that the duration dilation of an unexpected stimulus is not enhanced by increasing its saliency, suggesting that the effect is more closely related to prediction violation than enhanced attention. Finally, duration distortions induced by violations of progressive number sequences implicate the involvement of high-level predictability, suggesting the involvement of areas higher than primary visual cortex. We suggest that duration distortions can be understood in terms of repetition suppression, in which neural responses to repeated stimuli are diminished.

  3. Local Development of Subject Area Item Banks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Annie W.; Barlow, Gene

    1984-01-01

    It is feasible for school districts to develop and use subject area tests as reliable as those previously available only from commercial publishers. Three projects in local item development in a large school district are described. The first involved only Algebra 1. The second involved life science and career education at the elementary level; and…

  4. Acquisition in different and special subject areas

    CERN Document Server

    Katz, Linda S

    2013-01-01

    Learn how acquisitions librarians successfully serve specialized users! In this book, you'll find profiles, methods, and processes for acquisitions in specialized subject areas, such as local and regional poetry, oceanography, educational information in electronic formats, popular fiction, regional and ethnic materials, and more. Seasoned acquisitions librarians share their experiences in gathering the hard-to-find materials their libraries' highly specialized clients need to access. You'll also examine issues surrounding the acquisition of new reference tools that are vital in today's emergi

  5. Prediction of subjective ratings of emotional pictures by EEG features

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarland, Dennis J.; Parvaz, Muhammad A.; Sarnacki, William A.; Goldstein, Rita Z.; Wolpaw, Jonathan R.

    2017-02-01

    Objective. Emotion dysregulation is an important aspect of many psychiatric disorders. Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology could be a powerful new approach to facilitating therapeutic self-regulation of emotions. One possible BCI method would be to provide stimulus-specific feedback based on subject-specific electroencephalographic (EEG) responses to emotion-eliciting stimuli. Approach. To assess the feasibility of this approach, we studied the relationships between emotional valence/arousal and three EEG features: amplitude of alpha activity over frontal cortex; amplitude of theta activity over frontal midline cortex; and the late positive potential over central and posterior mid-line areas. For each feature, we evaluated its ability to predict emotional valence/arousal on both an individual and a group basis. Twenty healthy participants (9 men, 11 women; ages 22-68) rated each of 192 pictures from the IAPS collection in terms of valence and arousal twice (96 pictures on each of 4 d over 2 weeks). EEG was collected simultaneously and used to develop models based on canonical correlation to predict subject-specific single-trial ratings. Separate models were evaluated for the three EEG features: frontal alpha activity; frontal midline theta; and the late positive potential. In each case, these features were used to simultaneously predict both the normed ratings and the subject-specific ratings. Main results. Models using each of the three EEG features with data from individual subjects were generally successful at predicting subjective ratings on training data, but generalization to test data was less successful. Sparse models performed better than models without regularization. Significance. The results suggest that the frontal midline theta is a better candidate than frontal alpha activity or the late positive potential for use in a BCI-based paradigm designed to modify emotional reactions.

  6. Do subjective memory complaints predict senile Alzheimer dementia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jungwirth, Susanne; Zehetmayer, Sonja; Weissgram, Silvia; Weber, Germain; Tragl, Karl Heinz; Fischer, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Many elderly complain about their memory and undergo dementia screening by the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). While objective memory impairment always precedes Alzheimer dementia (AD) it is unclear whether subjective memory complaints are predicting AD. We tried to answer this question in a prospective cohort study. The 75-years old non-demented inhabitants of Vienna-Transdanube were investigated for conversion to AD after 30 months. The predictive value of subjective memory complaints was analysed in two groups: subjects with high MMSE-score (28-30) and subjects with low MMSE-score (23-27). Only in subjects with high MMSE univariate analyses showed an association between subjective memory complaints and incident AD. In both groups the verbal memory test was the main predictor of AD in multivariate analyses. We suggest to perform memory testing in subjects complaining about memory irrespective of their performance in a screening procedure like the MMSE.

  7. Prediction of UHPFRC panels thickness subjected to aircraft engine impact

    OpenAIRE

    Thai, Duc-Kien; Kim, Seung-Eock

    2016-01-01

    In the practical design of nuclear building structures subjected to an aircraft crash, the structures are required to prevent scabbing and perforation. NEI 07-13 provided the formulas to predict the minimum reinforced concrete (RC) wall thickness to prevent the local damage caused by aircraft engine impact. However, these formulas may not be suitable for predicting the thickness of the ultra-high performance fiber reinforced concrete (UHPFRC) wall. In this study, the local damage of a UHPFRC ...

  8. Geographical differences in subjective well-being predict extraordinary altruism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brethel-Haurwitz, Kristin M; Marsh, Abigail A

    2014-03-01

    Altruistic kidney donation is a form of extraordinary altruism, the antecedents of which are poorly understood. Although well-being is known to increase the incidence of prosocial behaviors and there is significant geographical variation in both well-being and altruistic kidney donation in the United States, it is unknown whether geographical variation in well-being predicts the prevalence of this form of extraordinary altruism. We calculated per capita rates of altruistic kidney donation across the United States and found that an index of subjective well-being predicted altruistic donation, even after we controlled for relevant sociodemographic variables. This relationship persisted at the state level and at the larger geographic regional level. Consistent with hypotheses about the relationship between objective and subjective well-being, results showed that subjective well-being mediated the relationship between increases in objective well-being metrics, such as income, and altruism. These results suggest that extraordinary altruism may be promoted by societal factors that increase subjective well-being.

  9. Single-subject anxiety treatment outcome prediction using functional neuroimaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Tali M; Stein, Murray B; Ramsawh, Holly J; Campbell-Sills, Laura; Paulus, Martin P

    2014-04-01

    The possibility of individualized treatment prediction has profound implications for the development of personalized interventions for patients with anxiety disorders. Here we utilize random forest classification and pre-treatment functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from individuals with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and panic disorder (PD) to generate individual subject treatment outcome predictions. Before cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), 48 adults (25 GAD and 23 PD) reduced (via cognitive reappraisal) or maintained their emotional responses to negative images during fMRI scanning. CBT responder status was predicted using activations from 70 anatomically defined regions. The final random forest model included 10 predictors contributing most to classification accuracy. A similar analysis was conducted using the clinical and demographic variables. Activations in the hippocampus during maintenance and anterior insula, superior temporal, supramarginal, and superior frontal gyri during reappraisal were among the best predictors, with greater activation in responders than non-responders. The final fMRI-based model yielded 79% accuracy, with good sensitivity (0.86), specificity (0.68), and positive and negative likelihood ratios (2.73, 0.20). Clinical and demographic variables yielded poorer accuracy (69%), sensitivity (0.79), specificity (0.53), and likelihood ratios (1.67, 0.39). This is the first use of random forest models to predict treatment outcome from pre-treatment neuroimaging data in psychiatry. Together, random forest models and fMRI can provide single-subject predictions with good test characteristics. Moreover, activation patterns are consistent with the notion that greater activation in cortico-limbic circuitry predicts better CBT response in GAD and PD.

  10. Drilling in areas subject to environmental protection; A perfuracao em area de protecao ambiental

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendonca, Ricardo Teixeira; Guimaraes, Antimio Santos [PETROBRAS, XX (Brazil). Distrito de Perfuracao do Nordeste. Div. Tecnica; Santana, Manoel Messias de [PETROBRAS, XX (Brazil). Regiao de Producao do Nordeste. Setor de Seguranca Industrial

    1989-12-31

    This paper presents the practices developed for pollution control in areas subject to environmental protection. This well drilling operation was carried out in the Municipality of Marechal Deodoro, in the State of Alagoas, in locality named Massagueira. We stress the preventive methods for liquid and solid effluent generation and the use of Closed Fluid System or Anti-Dike System. (author) 3 figs.

  11. Potential predictive factors of osteoporosis in HIV-positive subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fausto, Alfonso; Bongiovanni, Marco; Cicconi, Paola; Menicagli, Laura; Ligabò, Emanuela Valentina; Melzi, Sara; Bini, Teresa; Sardanelli, Francesco; Cornalba, GianPaolo; Monforte, Antonella d'Arminio

    2006-06-01

    /osteoporosis. Traditional risk factors are predictive of osteopenia/osteoporosis also in HIV-subjects; the association with higher HIV-RNA levels can suggest a direct role of HIV itself in the occurrence of bone disease.

  12. Short- versus long-term prediction of dementia among subjects with low and high educational levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chary, Emilie; Amieva, Hélène; Pérès, Karine; Orgogozo, Jean-Marc; Dartigues, Jean-François; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène

    2013-09-01

    Using simple measures of cognition and disability in a prospective community-living cohort of normal elderly persons, the main objectives of our study were to distinguish short- and long-term predictors for dementia according to educational level and to propose a tool for early detection of subjects at high risk of dementia. Data derived from the French cohort study Paquid (Personnes Agées QUID), which included 3777 subjects, older than 65 years of age, who were followed for a 20-year period. The risk of dementia at 3 years and 10 years was estimated by logistic regression for repeated measures combining data from all the 3- and 10-year windows throughout the follow-up. Predictors included disability assessed by the number of dependent items among four instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), four neuropsychological tests, five Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) subtests, and four items of subjective memory complaints. Of the 2882 included subjects, the number of IADLs remained a predictor of short- and long-term conversion to dementia for those with low educational level (combined with only one cognitive test) whereas the best predictors for more educated subjects combined subjective memory complaints and memory and executive function tests. The episodic memory subtest was the only predictive MMSE subtest. In the high-education-level group, the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the selected models were 0.85 for 3-year prediction and 0.78 for 10-year prediction. Early predictors of dementia are different according to educational level. Among subjects reaching the secondary school level, early detection of those at high risk of dementia is possible with good predictive performance, with a few simple objective and subjective cognitive evaluations. Copyright © 2013 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Computationally efficient prediction of area per lipid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chaban, Vitaly V.

    2014-01-01

    Area per lipid (APL) is an important property of biological and artificial membranes. Newly constructed bilayers are characterized by their APL and newly elaborated force fields must reproduce APL. Computer simulations of APL are very expensive due to slow conformational dynamics. The simulated d...

  14. Hanford Environmental Information System (HEIS). Volume 3, Subject Area reference manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schreck, R.I.

    1994-01-14

    The Hanford Environmental Information System (HEIS) Subject Area manuals are designed as reference guides, that is, each chapter provides the information needed to make best use of each subject area, its tables, and reporting capabilities. Each subject area is documented in a chapter in one of the subject area manuals. Because these are reference manuals, most of the information is also available in the online help system as well. See Section 5.4.2 of the HEIS User`s Guide (DOE-RL 1994a) for a detailed description of the online help.

  15. Predicting personal preferences in subjective video quality assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korhonen, Jari

    2017-01-01

    the characteristics of each test sample are represented by a set of parameters, and the individual preferences are represented by weights for the parameters. According to the validation experiment performed on public visual quality databases annotated with raw individual scores, the proposed model can predict......In this paper, we study the problem of predicting the visual quality of a specific test sample (e.g. a video clip) experienced by a specific user, based on the ratings by other users for the same sample and the same user for other samples. A simple linear model and algorithm is presented, where...

  16. Subjective Technology Adaptivity Predicts Technology Use in Old Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamin, Stefan T; Lang, Frieder R; Beyer, Anja

    2017-01-01

    To date, not much is known about the psychological and motivational factors underlying technology use in late life. What are the interindividual determinants that lead older adults to invest in using technological innovations despite the age-related physiological changes that impose challenges on behavioral plasticity in everyday life? This research explores interindividual differences in subjective technology adaptivity - a general technology-related motivational resource that accounts for technology use in late life. More specifically, we investigate the influence of this factor relative to demographic characteristics, personality traits, and functional limitations in a longitudinal sample of community-dwelling older adults. We report results from a paper-and-pencil survey with 136 older adults between 59 and 92 years of age (mean = 71.4, SD = 7.4). Of those participants, 77 participated in a 2-year follow-up. We assessed self-reports of technology use, subjective technology adaptivity, functional limitations, and the personality traits openness to new experiences and neuroticism. Higher levels of subjective technology adaptivity were associated with technology use at the first measurement as well as increased use over the course of 2 years. Subjective technology adaptivity is a significant predictor of technology use in old age. Our findings contribute to improving the understanding of interindividual differences when using technological innovation in late life. Moreover, our findings have implications in the context of user involvement and may contribute to the successful development of innovative technology for older adults. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Mass Change Prediction Model of Concrete Subjected to Sulfate Attack

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-Myong Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study suggested a mass change prediction model for sulfate attack of concrete containing mineral admixtures through an immersion test in sulfate solutions. For this, 100% OPC as well as binary and ternary blended cement concrete specimens were manufactured by changing the types and amount of mineral admixture. The concrete specimens were immersed in fresh water, 10% sodium sulfate solution, and 10% magnesium sulfate solution, respectively, and mass change of the specimens was measured at 28, 56, 91, 182, and 365 days. The experimental results indicated that resistance of concrete containing mineral admixture against sodium sulfate attack was far greater than that of 100% OPC concrete. However, in terms of resistance against magnesium sulfate attack, concrete containing mineral admixture was lower than 100% OPC concrete due to the formation of magnesium silicate hydrate (M-S-H, the noncementitious material. Ultimately, based on the experimental results, a mass change prediction model was suggested and it was found that the prediction values using the model corresponded relatively well with the experimental results.

  18. The Mayo Clinic quadratic equation improves the prediction of glomerular filtration rate in diabetic subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigalleau, Vincent; Lasseur, Catherine; Raffaitin, Christelle; Perlemoine, Caroline; Barthe, Nicole; Chauveau, Philippe; Combe, Christian; Gin, Henri

    2007-03-01

    Although recommended, both the Cockcroft and Gault formula (CG) and the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) equation are not ideally predictive of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in diabetic subjects; we tested whether the new Mayo Clinic Quadratic (MCQ) equation performed better. In 200 diabetic subjects with a wide range of renal function, GFR was measured by 51Cr-EDTA clearance, and compared with the results of the three predictive equations by regression analysis and Bland and Altman procedures. The correlations with body mass index, age and albumin excretion rates were tested. The precisions (absolute difference as percentage), diagnostic accuracies [receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the diagnosis of moderate and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD)], and the results of stratification according to the KDOQ classification were compared. The CG and MCQ overestimated mean GFR, whereas the MDRD underestimated it. Correlation coefficients and areas under the ROC curves were better for the MDRD and the MCQ as compared with the CG, which was biased by body weight (+30% overestimation in obese diabetic subjects). The absolute differences with true GFR were slightly lower for the MDRD than the MCQ, and both better than the CG. Both the MDRD and MCQ correctly stratified 65% of the subjects (CG: 55%, P<0.05). In contrast with the MDRD, the MCQ did not underestimate normal GFR, and its performance for stratification was uniformly good over a wide GFR range. In diabetic subjects, the MCQ has a similar diagnostic performance to the MDRD, but it does not underestimate normal GFR, which is an important advantage.

  19. More than Beliefs: Subject Areas and Teachers' Integration of Laptops in Secondary Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Sarah K.; Chan, Amy; Caputi, Peter

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship of subject areas to teachers' technology integration. Educational technology research has often identified "culture clashes" to explain differences in technology use between subject areas. These clashes are frequently attributed to core features, values and beliefs held in the…

  20. Extent of the availability of Africana resources in subject areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigated the extent of the availability of Africana resources in various subject areas in thirteen first and second generation federal university libraries in Nigeria with the view of suggesting ways to improve the development of the collection in the university libraries that are deficient in the subject areas of any of ...

  1. Predicting artificailly drained areas by means of selective model ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Anders Bjørn; Beucher, Amélie; Iversen, Bo Vangsø

    produced with one of these approaches, a better prediction can be achieved by combining the predictions of several models (Caruana et al., 2004, Sollich and Krogh, 1996). As more approaches become available, the importance of the method used for selecting the models for use in the ensemble increases....... The study aims firstly to train a large number of models to predict the extent of artificially drained areas using various machine learning approaches. Secondly, the study will develop a method for selecting the models, which give a good prediction of artificially drained areas, when used in conjunction...... method, when selecting the models. In this way, the developed method should be able to produce a highly accurate and robust map of artificially drained areas within a limited span of time....

  2. Subjective worsening of memory predicts dementia after three years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Brækhus

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available  ABSTRACTStudy Objective:  Design:  Setting:  Paricipants:  Measurements:  Results:  Conclusions:  Key words:  aged, 75 years and over; subjective memory impairment; prospective study; dementiaElderly persons expressing a worsening of memory function are at increased risk ofdeveloping dementia.When adjusting for potential confounding by depressive symptoms, two of the GMSquestions scored at baseline, 'Is it more difficult to remember things than it used to be?' and 'Do youwrite reminders to yourself more often now than before?', were significant predictors of dementiawithin three years, OR = 3.3, 95% CI = 1.2–8.6 and OR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.0–7.6, respectively.Dementia (DSM-III and DSM-III-R criteria.285 non-demented persons aged 75 years and above at start of study, 77.5% women.Persons living at home.Prospective study of a random sample of older people with follow-ups after three, six, nineand twelve years.To assess whether complaining of memory impairment, as measured by the subjectivepart of the Geriatric Mental State examination (GMS, the Canberra community version, predictslater development of dementia.

  3. Anthropocene changes in desert area: Sensitivity to climate model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahowald, N.

    2007-12-01

    Changes in desert area due to humans have important implications from a local, regional to global level. Here we focus on the latter in order to better understand estimated changes in desert dust aerosols and the associated iron deposition into oceans. Using 17 model simulations from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model dataset and the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model we estimate changes in desert dust source areas due to climate change and carbon dioxide fertilization. If we assume no carbon dioxide fertilization, the mean of the model predictions is that desert areas expand from the 1880s to the 2080s, due to increased aridity. If we allow for carbon dioxide fertilization, the desert areas become smaller. Thus better understanding carbon dioxide fertilization is important for predicting desert response to climate. There is substantial spread in the model simulation predictions for regional and global averages.

  4. BAHNG score: predictive model for detection of subjects with the oropharynx colonized by uncommon microorganisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Del Castillo, J; Teja-Marina, J; Candel, F J; Barberán, J; Moreno-Cuervo, A; Chiarella, F; López-González, L; Ramos-Cordero, P; Martín-Sánchez, F J

    2017-11-06

    Pneumonia is most frequently produced by the microaspiration of flora that colonizes the oropharynx. Etiological diagnosis of pneumonia is infrequent in clinical practise and empirical treatment should be prescribed. The aims of the present study were to determine the factors associated with oropharynx colonization by uncommon microorganisms (UM) and to develop a predictive model. A cross-sectional study that included all pa-tients living in one long-term care facilities was developed. Demographic, comorbidities, basal functional status and clinical data were collected. To determinate the oropharyngeal colonization, a single sample of pharynx was obtained for each subject using a cotton swab. A total of 221 subjects were included, mean age 86.27 (SD 8.05) years and 157 (71%) were female. In 32 (14.5%) subjects UM flora was isolated, Gram-negative bacilli in 16 (7.2%) residents, and Staphylococcus aureus in 16 (7.2%). The predictive model included the presence of hypertension, neuromuscular disease, Barthel <90 and use of PEG. The BAHNG score (BArthel, Hypertension, Neuromuscular, Gastrostomy), showed an area under the curve of 0.731 (CI 95% 0.643-0.820; p<0.001). We have classified patients according to this score in low (0-2 points), intermediate (3-5 points) and high risk (≥ 6). The probability of UM colonization in the oropharyngeal based on this classification is 4.1%, 15.8% and 57.1% for low, intermediate and high risk, respectively. The BAHNG score could help in the identifications of elderly patients with high risk of colonization by UM. In case of pneumonia the evaluation of the subject through this score could help in the initial decisions concerning antibiotic treatment.

  5. Harnessing the power of personality assessment: subjective assessment predicts behaviour in horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ijichi, Carrie; Collins, Lisa M; Creighton, Emma; Elwood, Robert W

    2013-06-01

    Objective assessment of animal personality is typically time consuming, requiring the repeated measure of behavioural responses. By contrast, subjective assessment of personality allows information to be collected quickly by experienced caregivers. However, subjective assessment must predict behaviour to be valid. Comparisons of subjective assessments and behaviour have been made but often with methodological weaknesses and thus, limited success. Here we test the validity of a subjective assessment against a battery of behaviour tests in 146 horses (Equus caballus). Our first aim was to determine if subjective personality assessment could predict behaviour during behaviour testing. We made specific a priori predictions for how subjectively measured personality should relate to behaviour testing. We found that Extroversion predicted time to complete a handling test and refusal behaviour during this test. It also predicted minimum distance to a novel object. Neuroticism predicted how reactive an individual was to a sudden visual stimulus but not how quickly it recovered from this. Agreeableness did not predict any behaviour during testing. There were several unpredicted correlations between subjective measures and behaviour tests which we explore further. Our second aim was to combine data from the subjective assessment and behaviour tests to gain a more comprehensive understanding of personality. We found that the combination of methods provides new insights into horse behaviour. Furthermore, our data are consistent with the idea of horses showing different coping styles, a novel finding for this species. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Insulin Resistance Predicts Atherogenic Lipoprotein Profile in Nondiabetic Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia De C. Cartolano

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Atherogenic diabetes is associated with an increased cardiovascular risk and mortality in diabetic individuals; however, the impact of insulin resistance (IR in lipid metabolism in preclinical stages is generally underreported. For that, we evaluated the capacity of IR to predict an atherogenic lipid subfraction profile. Methods. Complete clinical evaluation and biochemical analysis (lipid, glucose profile, LDL, and HDL subfractions and LDL phenotype and size were performed in 181 patients. The impact of IR as a predictor of atherogenic lipoproteins was tested by logistic regression analysis in raw and adjusted models. Results. HDL-C and Apo AI were significantly lower in individuals with IR. Individuals with IR had a higher percentage of small HDL particles, lower percentage in the larger ones, and reduced frequency of phenotype A (IR = 62%; non-IR = 83%. IR individuals had reduced probability to have large HDL (OR = 0.213; CI = 0.999–0.457 and had twice more chances to show increased small HDL (OR = 2.486; CI = 1.341–7.051. IR was a significant predictor of small LDL (OR = 3.075; CI = 1.341–7.051 and atherogenic phenotype (OR = 3.176; CI = 1.469–6.867. Conclusion. IR, previously DM2 diagnosis, is a strong predictor of quantitative and qualitative features of lipoproteins directly associated with an increased atherogenic risk.

  7. Subjectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Vega Encabo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I claim that subjectivity is a way of being that is constituted through a set of practices in which the self is subject to the dangers of fictionalizing and plotting her life and self-image. I examine some ways of becoming subject through narratives and through theatrical performance before others. Through these practices, a real and active subjectivity is revealed, capable of self-knowledge and self-transformation. 

  8. Predictive analysis effectiveness in determining the epidemic disease infected area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Najihah; Akhir, Nur Shazwani Md.; Hassan, Fadratul Hafinaz

    2017-10-01

    Epidemic disease outbreak had caused nowadays community to raise their great concern over the infectious disease controlling, preventing and handling methods to diminish the disease dissemination percentage and infected area. Backpropagation method was used for the counter measure and prediction analysis of the epidemic disease. The predictive analysis based on the backpropagation method can be determine via machine learning process that promotes the artificial intelligent in pattern recognition, statistics and features selection. This computational learning process will be integrated with data mining by measuring the score output as the classifier to the given set of input features through classification technique. The classification technique is the features selection of the disease dissemination factors that likely have strong interconnection between each other in causing infectious disease outbreaks. The predictive analysis of epidemic disease in determining the infected area was introduced in this preliminary study by using the backpropagation method in observation of other's findings. This study will classify the epidemic disease dissemination factors as the features for weight adjustment on the prediction of epidemic disease outbreaks. Through this preliminary study, the predictive analysis is proven to be effective method in determining the epidemic disease infected area by minimizing the error value through the features classification.

  9. Network, anatomical, and non-imaging measures for the prediction of ADHD diagnosis in individual subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason W Bohland

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Brain imaging methods have long held promise as diagnostic aids for neuropsychiatric conditions with complex behavioral phenotypes such as Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder. This promise has largely been unrealized, at least partly due to the heterogeneity of clinical populations and the small sample size of many studies. A large, multi-center dataset provided by the ADHD-200 Consortium affords new opportunities to test methods for individual diagnosis based on MRI-observable structural brain attributes and functional interactions observable from resting state fMRI. In this study, we systematically calculated a large set of standard and new quantitative markers from individual subject datasets. These features (>12,000 per subject consisted of local anatomical attributes such as cortical thickness and structure volumes and both local and global resting state network measures. Three methods were used to compute graphs representing interdependencies between activations in different brain areas, and a full set of network features was derived from each. Of these, features derived from the inverse of the time series covariance matrix, under an L1-norm regularization penalty, proved most powerful. Anatomical and network feature sets were used individually, and combined with non-imaging phenotypic features from each subject. Machine learning algorithms were used to rank attributes, and performance was assessed under cross-validation and on a separate test set of 168 subjects for a variety of feature set combinations. While non-imaging features gave highest performance in cross-validation, the addition of imaging features in sufficient numbers led to improved generalization to new data. Stratification by gender also proved to be a fruitful strategy to improve classifier performance. We describe the overall approach used, compare the predictive power of different classes of features, and describe the most impactful features in relation to the

  10. Review of some advances of the literature about predictive variables concerning subjective well-being

    OpenAIRE

    Gloria Cajiao; Dennis Lissete Morales Arias; Genny Carolina Garzón Romero; Liliana Benavides Basante; José Leonardo Acevedo Rincón

    2013-01-01

    This review of scientific literature presents some tendencies, conceptual advances, empirical findings and tests that measure the predictive variables of subjective well-being. It was done through the search in bibliographical database like ProQuest, PsycArticles, Psyctest, OVID SP, books and Thesis. Two types of predictive variables were recognized- internal and external to the individual-. Both of them influence the achievement of the subjective well-being. Besides, the studies and conceptu...

  11. Predictive value of testing random urine sample to detect microalbuminuria in diabetic subjects during outpatient visit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouhanick, B; Berrut, G; Chameau, A M; Hallar, M; Bled, F; Chevet, B; Vergely, J; Rohmer, V; Fressinaud, P; Marre, M

    1992-01-01

    The predictive value of random urine sample during outpatient visit to predict persistent microalbuminuria was studied in 76 Type 1, insulin-dependent diabetic subjects, 61 Type 2, non-insulin-dependent diabetic subjects, and 72 Type 2, insulin-treated diabetic subjects. Seventy-six patients attended outpatient clinic during morning, and 133 during afternoon. Microalbuminuria was suspected if Urinary Albumin Excretion (UAE) exceeded 20 mg/l. All patients were hospitalized within 6 months following outpatient visit, and persistent microalbuminuria was assessed then if UAE was between 30 and 300 mg/24 h on 2-3 occasions in 3 urines samples. Of these 209 subjects eighty-three were also screened with Microbumintest (Ames-Bayer), a semi-quantitative method. Among the 209 subjects, 71 were positive both for microalbuminuria during outpatient visit and a persistent microalbuminuria during hospitalization: sensitivity 91.0%, specificity 83.2%, concordance 86.1%, and positive predictive value 76.3% (chi-squared test: 191; p less than 10(-4)). Data were not different for subjects examined on morning, or on afternoon. Among the 83 subjects also screened with Microbumintest, 22 displayed both a positive reaction and a persistent microalbuminuria: sensitivity 76%, specificity 81%, concordance 80%, and positive predictive value 69% (chi-squared test: 126; p less than 10(-4)). Both types of screening appeared equally effective during outpatient visit. Hence, a persistent microalbuminuria can be predicted during an outpatient visit in a diabetic clinic.

  12. The Role of Basic Needs Fulfillment in Prediction of Subjective Well-Being among University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkdogan, Turgut; Duru, Erdinc

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the role of fulfillment level of university students' basic needs in predicting the level of their subjective well being. The participants were 627 students (56% female, 44% male) attending different faculties of Pamukkale University. In this study, subjective well being was measured with Life Satisfaction Scale…

  13. Reduced FDG-PET brain metabolism and executive function predict clinical progression in elderly healthy subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Ewers

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Brain changes reminiscent of Alzheimer disease (AD have been previously reported in a substantial portion of elderly cognitive healthy (HC subjects. The major aim was to evaluate the accuracy of MRI assessed regional gray matter (GM volume, 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET, and neuropsychological test scores to identify those HC subjects who subsequently convert to mild cognitive impairment (MCI or AD dementia. We obtained in 54 healthy control (HC subjects a priori defined region of interest (ROI values of medial temporal and parietal FDG-PET and medial temporal GM volume. In logistic regression analyses, these ROI values were tested together with neuropsychological test scores (free recall, trail making test B (TMT-B as predictors of HC conversion during a clinical follow-up between 3 and 4 years. In voxel-based analyses, FDG-PET and MRI GM maps were compared between HC converters and HC non-converters. Out of the 54 HC subjects, 11 subjects converted to MCI or AD dementia. Lower FDG-PET ROI values were associated with higher likelihood of conversion (p = 0.004, with the area under the curve (AUC yielding 82.0% (95% CI = (95.5%, 68.5%. The GM volume ROI was not a significant predictor (p = 0.07. TMT-B but not the free recall tests were a significant predictor (AUC = 71% (95% CI = 50.4%, 91.7%. For the combination of FDG-PET and TMT-B, the AUC was 93.4% (sensitivity = 82%, specificity = 93%. Voxel-based group comparison showed reduced FDG-PET metabolism within the temporo-parietal and prefrontal cortex in HC converters. In conclusion, medial temporal and-parietal FDG-PET and executive function show a clinically acceptable accuracy for predicting clinical progression in elderly HC subjects.

  14. Review of some advances of the literature about predictive variables concerning subjective well-being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Cajiao

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This review of scientific literature presents some tendencies, conceptual advances, empirical findings and tests that measure the predictive variables of subjective well-being. It was done through the search in bibliographical database like ProQuest, PsycArticles, Psyctest, OVID SP, books and Thesis. Two types of predictive variables were recognized- internal and external to the individual-. Both of them influence the achievement of the subjective well-being. Besides, the studies and conceptualization about Subjetive well-being and some of the Predictive Variables were analyzed in the conclusion.

  15. SAT predicts GPA better for high ability subjects: Implications for Spearman's Law of Diminishing Returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, Thomas; Snyder, Anissa; Pillow, David; Kochunov, Peter

    2011-04-01

    This research examined the predictive validity of the SAT (formerly, the Scholastic Aptitude Test) for high and low ability groups. SAT scores and college GPAs were obtained from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Subjects were classified as high or low ability by g factor scores from the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery. SAT correlations with GPA were higher for high than low ability subjects. SAT g loadings (i.e., SAT correlations with g) were equivalent for both groups. This is the first study to show that the predictive validity of the SAT varies for ability groups that differ in g. The results contradict a presumption, based on Spearman's Law of Diminishing Returns, that a test's predictive validity should be lower for high ability subjects. Further research is needed to identify factors that contribute to the predictive validity of the SAT for groups that differ in g.

  16. Mastication, EMG activity and occlusal contact area in subjects with different facial types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Simone Guimarães Farias; Custodio, William; Jufer, Juliana Silva Moura; Del Bel, Cury Altair Antoninha; Garcia, Renata Cunha Matheus Rodrigues

    2010-10-01

    Dentofacial morphology may affect orofacial functions, therefore the aim of the current study was to evaluate the influence of craniofacial morphology on masticatory function, occlusal contact area (OCA), and masticatory muscles activity. Seventy-eight (78) subjects were divided into three groups according to vertical facial pattern: 1. mesofacial; 2. brachyfacial; and 3. dolichofacial. Artificial material and the sieving method were used to access masticatory efficiency (ME). OCA was determined by registration of posterior teeth. Electromyographic (EMG) activity of the masseter and anterior temporal (AT) muscles was accessed bilaterally at rest and at maximal vertical clenching (MVC). ME (%) was significantly higher in brachyfacial and lower in dolichofacial subjects. Brachyfacials presented the highest OCA (mm2) followed by meso and dolichofacial subjects. The EMG of the masseter and AT at rest and at MVC showed that dolichofacial subjects presented the lowest activity values, while brachyfacial subjects presented significantly higher measurements. Craniofacial morphology affected masticatory function, OCA, and EMG activity of the masticatory muscles.

  17. Increased BDNF promoter methylation in the Wernicke area of suicide subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Simona; Sarchiapone, Marco; Zarrilli, Federica; Videtic, Alja; Ferraro, Angelo; Carli, Vladimir; Sacchetti, Silvana; Lembo, Francesca; Angiolillo, Antonella; Jovanovic, Nikolina; Pisanti, Francesco; Tomaiuolo, Rossella; Monticelli, Antonella; Balazic, Joze; Roy, Alec; Marusic, Andrej; Cocozza, Sergio; Fusco, Alfredo; Bruni, Carmelo B; Castaldo, Giuseppe; Chiariotti, Lorenzo

    2010-03-01

    Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) plays a pivotal role in the pathophysiology of suicidal behavior and BDNF levels are decreased in the brain and plasma of suicide subjects. So far, the mechanisms leading to downregulation of BDNF expression are poorly understood. To test the hypothesis that alterations of DNA methylation could be involved in the dysregulation of BDNF gene expression in the brain of suicide subjects. Three independent quantitative methylation techniques were performed on postmortem samples of brain tissue. BDNF messenger RNA levels were determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Academic medical center. Forty-four suicide completers and 33 nonsuicide control subjects of white ethnicity. The DNA methylation degree at BDNF promoter IV and the genome-wide DNA methylation levels in the brain's Wernicke area. Postmortem brain samples from suicide subjects showed a statistically significant increase of DNA methylation at specific CpG sites in BDNF promoter/exon IV compared with nonsuicide control subjects (P Wernicke area of the postmortem brain of suicide subjects irrespective of genome-wide methylation levels, indicating that a gene-specific increase in DNA methylation could cause or contribute to the downregulation of BDNF expression in suicide subjects. The reported data reveal a novel link between epigenetic alteration in the brain and suicidal behavior.

  18. Fourier power, subjective distance and object categories all provide plausible models of BOLD responses in scene-selective visual areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Daniel Lescroart

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Perception of natural visual scenes activates several functional areas in the human brain, including the Parahippocampal Place Area (PPA, Retrosplenial Complex (RSC, and the Occipital Place Area (OPA. It is currently unclear what specific scene-related features are represented in these areas. Previous studies have suggested that PPA, RSC, and/or OPA might represent at least three qualitatively different classes of features: (1 2D features related to Fourier power; (2 3D spatial features such as the distance to objects in a scene; or (3 abstract features such as the categories of objects in a scene. To determine which of these hypotheses best describes the visual representation in scene-selective areas, we applied voxel-wise modeling (VM to BOLD fMRI responses elicited by a set of 1,386 images of natural scenes. VM provides an efficient method for testing competing hypotheses by comparing predictions of brain activity based on encoding models that instantiate each hypothesis. Here we evaluated three different encoding models that instantiate each of the three hypotheses listed above. We used linear regression to fit each encoding model to the fMRI data recorded from each voxel, and we evaluated each fit model by estimating the amount of variance it predicted in a withheld portion of the data set. We found that voxel-wise models based on Fourier power or the subjective distance to objects in each scene predicted much of the variance predicted by a model based on object categories. Furthermore, the response variance explained by these three models is largely shared, and the individual models explain little unique variance in responses. Based on an evaluation of previous studies and the data we present here, we conclude that there is currently no good basis to favor any one of the three alternative hypotheses about visual representation in scene-selective areas. We offer suggestions for further studies that may help resolve this issue.

  19. Fourier power, subjective distance, and object categories all provide plausible models of BOLD responses in scene-selective visual areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroart, Mark D.; Stansbury, Dustin E.; Gallant, Jack L.

    2015-01-01

    Perception of natural visual scenes activates several functional areas in the human brain, including the Parahippocampal Place Area (PPA), Retrosplenial Complex (RSC), and the Occipital Place Area (OPA). It is currently unclear what specific scene-related features are represented in these areas. Previous studies have suggested that PPA, RSC, and/or OPA might represent at least three qualitatively different classes of features: (1) 2D features related to Fourier power; (2) 3D spatial features such as the distance to objects in a scene; or (3) abstract features such as the categories of objects in a scene. To determine which of these hypotheses best describes the visual representation in scene-selective areas, we applied voxel-wise modeling (VM) to BOLD fMRI responses elicited by a set of 1386 images of natural scenes. VM provides an efficient method for testing competing hypotheses by comparing predictions of brain activity based on encoding models that instantiate each hypothesis. Here we evaluated three different encoding models that instantiate each of the three hypotheses listed above. We used linear regression to fit each encoding model to the fMRI data recorded from each voxel, and we evaluated each fit model by estimating the amount of variance it predicted in a withheld portion of the data set. We found that voxel-wise models based on Fourier power or the subjective distance to objects in each scene predicted much of the variance predicted by a model based on object categories. Furthermore, the response variance explained by these three models is largely shared, and the individual models explain little unique variance in responses. Based on an evaluation of previous studies and the data we present here, we conclude that there is currently no good basis to favor any one of the three alternative hypotheses about visual representation in scene-selective areas. We offer suggestions for further studies that may help resolve this issue. PMID:26594164

  20. An investigation on impacts of scheduling configurations on Mississippi biology subject area testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchette, Frances Lenora

    The purpose of this mixed modal study was to compare the results of Biology Subject Area mean scores of students on a 4 x 4 block schedule, A/B block schedule, and traditional year-long schedule for 1A to 5A size schools. This study also reviewed the data to determine if minority or gender issues might influence the test results. Interviews with administrators and teachers were conducted about the type of schedule configuration they use and the influence that the schedule has on student academic performance on the Biology Subject Area Test. Additionally, this research further explored whether schedule configurations allow sufficient time for students to construct knowledge. This study is important to schools, teachers, and administrators because it can assist them in considering the impacts that different types of class schedules have on student performance and if ethnic or gender issues are influencing testing results. This study used the causal-comparative method for the quantitative portion of the study and constant comparative method for the qualitative portion to explore the relationship of school schedules on student academic achievement on the Mississippi Biology Subject Area Test. The aggregate means of selected student scores indicate that the Mississippi Biology Subject Area Test as a measure of student performance reveals no significant difference on student achievement for the three school schedule configurations. The data were adjusted for initial differences of gender, minority, and school size on the three schedule configurations. The results suggest that schools may employ various schedule configurations and expect student performance on the Mississippi Biology Subject Area Test to be unaffected. However, many areas of concern were identified in the interviews that might impact on school learning environments. These concerns relate to effective classroom management, the active involvement of students in learning, the adequacy of teacher education

  1. Building Virtually Free Subject Area Expertise through Social Media: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooy, Brian K.

    2016-01-01

    Central to the ongoing success of the liaison model is the need for liaison librarians to stay informed and up-to-date about recent developments in the subject areas of their assigned academic departments and programs. This article describes an exploratory study conducted to determine whether information obtained from the social media accounts of…

  2. Subject Area Glossary. Arabic-English Vocabulary. Curriculum Bulletin Number 22.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chicago Board of Education, IL. Dept. of Curriculum.

    A glossary of commonly used and subject-area English words and their Arabic equivalents with romanization was prepared for teachers and Arabic-speaking, limited-English-speaking children in the Chicago public schools. It consists of: (1) a key to Arabic pronunciation of velarized consonants, glottal consonants, and Arabic double-consonants; (2) a…

  3. Ascertaining Activities in a Subject Area Through Bibliometric Analysis; Application to "Library Literature"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saracevic, Tefko; Perk, Lawrence J.

    1973-01-01

    A combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques were used to analize the journal articles indexed in one volume of Library Literature.'' This approach, merging bibliometrics and classification, yielded results in such areas as dispersion of articles among journals, frequency of article type and types of subjects covered. (16 references)…

  4. Perceptions of Classroom Assessment Tasks: An Interplay of Gender, Subject Area, and Grade Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkharusi, Hussain Ali; Al-Hosni, Salim

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates students' perceptions of classroom assessment tasks as a function of gender, subject area, and grade level. Data from 2753 students on Dorman and Knightley's (2006) Perceptions of Assessment Tasks Inventory (PATI) were analyzed in a MANOVA design. Results showed that students tended to hold positive perceptions of their…

  5. A Subject-Specificity Analysis of Radio Channels in Wireless Body Area Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Hao

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of subject-specific radio channels in wireless body area networks (WBANs using a simulation tool based on the parallel finite-difference time-domain (FDTD technique. This technique is well suited to model radio propagations around complex, inhomogeneous objects such as the human body. The impacts of different subjects varying in size on on-body, inter-body, and off-body radio channels are studied. The analysis demonstrates that the characteristics of on-body radio channels are subject-specific and are associated with human gender, height, and body mass index. On the other hand, when waves propagate away from the body, such as in the inter-body and off-body cases, the impacts of different subjects on the channel characteristics are found to be negligible.

  6. Muscle Synergies Facilitate Computational Prediction of Subject-Specific Walking Motions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Andrew J.; Eskinazi, Ilan; Jackson, Jennifer N.; Rao, Anil V.; Patten, Carolynn; Fregly, Benjamin J.

    2016-01-01

    Researchers have explored a variety of neurorehabilitation approaches to restore normal walking function following a stroke. However, there is currently no objective means for prescribing and implementing treatments that are likely to maximize recovery of walking function for any particular patient. As a first step toward optimizing neurorehabilitation effectiveness, this study develops and evaluates a patient-specific synergy-controlled neuromusculoskeletal simulation framework that can predict walking motions for an individual post-stroke. The main question we addressed was whether driving a subject-specific neuromusculoskeletal model with muscle synergy controls (5 per leg) facilitates generation of accurate walking predictions compared to a model driven by muscle activation controls (35 per leg) or joint torque controls (5 per leg). To explore this question, we developed a subject-specific neuromusculoskeletal model of a single high-functioning hemiparetic subject using instrumented treadmill walking data collected at the subject’s self-selected speed of 0.5 m/s. The model included subject-specific representations of lower-body kinematic structure, foot–ground contact behavior, electromyography-driven muscle force generation, and neural control limitations and remaining capabilities. Using direct collocation optimal control and the subject-specific model, we evaluated the ability of the three control approaches to predict the subject’s walking kinematics and kinetics at two speeds (0.5 and 0.8 m/s) for which experimental data were available from the subject. We also evaluated whether synergy controls could predict a physically realistic gait period at one speed (1.1 m/s) for which no experimental data were available. All three control approaches predicted the subject’s walking kinematics and kinetics (including ground reaction forces) well for the model calibration speed of 0.5 m/s. However, only activation and synergy controls could predict the

  7. Does area V3A predict positions of moving objects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerrit W Maus

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A gradually fading moving object is perceived to disappear at positions beyond its luminance detection threshold, whereas abrupt offsets are usually localised accurately. What role does retinotopic activity in visual cortex play in this motion-induced mislocalization of the endpoint of fading objects? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, we localised regions of interest (ROIs in retinotopic maps abutting the trajectory endpoint of a bar moving either towards or away from this position while gradually decreasing or increasing in luminance. Area V3A showed predictive activity, with stronger fMRI responses for motion towards versus away from the ROI. This effect was independent of the change in luminance. In Area V1 we found higher activity for high-contrast onsets and offsets near the ROI, but no significant differences between motion directions. We suggest that perceived final positions of moving objects are based on an interplay of predictive position representations in higher motion-sensitive retinotopic areas and offset transients in primary visual cortex.

  8. Does Area V3A Predict Positions of Moving Objects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maus, Gerrit W.; Weigelt, Sarah; Nijhawan, Romi; Muckli, Lars

    2010-01-01

    A gradually fading moving object is perceived to disappear at positions beyond its luminance detection threshold, whereas abrupt offsets are usually localized accurately. What role does retinotopic activity in visual cortex play in this motion-induced mislocalization of the endpoint of fading objects? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we localized regions of interest (ROIs) in retinotopic maps abutting the trajectory endpoint of a bar moving either toward or away from this position while gradually decreasing or increasing in luminance. Area V3A showed predictive activity, with stronger fMRI responses for motion toward versus away from the ROI. This effect was independent of the change in luminance. In Area V1 we found higher activity for high-contrast onsets and offsets near the ROI, but no significant differences between motion directions. We suggest that perceived final positions of moving objects are based on an interplay of predictive position representations in higher motion-sensitive retinotopic areas and offset transients in primary visual cortex. PMID:21897824

  9. Statistical prediction of energy input to buildings subjected to wind force

    OpenAIRE

    洪, 起; Koh, Ki

    2011-01-01

    It is necessary to access quantitatively the statistics of wind force to cotrol the damage of buildings due to wind force predicted in future. The purpose of this paper is to develop in the frequency domain a mathematical formula making the statistical prediction of energy input to buildings subjected to wind force, which will bocome the fundamental formula to establish the rational wind-resistance design method.

  10. Changes in Predicted Muscle Coordination with Subject-Specific Muscle Parameters for Individuals after Stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian A. Knarr

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Muscle weakness is commonly seen in individuals after stroke, characterized by lower forces during a maximal volitional contraction. Accurate quantification of muscle weakness is paramount when evaluating individual performance and response to after stroke rehabilitation. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of subject-specific muscle force and activation deficits on predicted muscle coordination when using musculoskeletal models for individuals after stroke. Maximum force generating ability and central activation ratio of the paretic plantar flexors, dorsiflexors, and quadriceps muscle groups were obtained using burst superimposition for four individuals after stroke with a range of walking speeds. Two models were created per subject: one with generic and one with subject-specific activation and maximum isometric force parameters. The inclusion of subject-specific muscle data resulted in changes in the model-predicted muscle forces and activations which agree with previously reported compensation patterns and match more closely the timing of electromyography for the plantar flexor and hamstring muscles. This was the first study to create musculoskeletal simulations of individuals after stroke with subject-specific muscle force and activation data. The results of this study suggest that subject-specific muscle force and activation data enhance the ability of musculoskeletal simulations to accurately predict muscle coordination in individuals after stroke.

  11. Subjective Evaluations of Motion Area and Velocity Characteristics of Dual Manipulator in Young and Elderly People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoda, Mitsumasa; Yoda, Asako; Shiota, Yasuhito

    In this study, we conducted a subjective evaluation experiment of a dual manipulator, which exhibits different motion characteristics. There are three motion characteristics: two of which are age-related, and the third is a robot motion characteristic and is newly added to these two motions. The motions are evaluated from motion areas and motion velocities. Subjects are elderly and young people, and the impressions of the motions are compared in two of the different age groups by the Semantic Differential (SD) method. The obtained results indicate that there are age differences in the evaluation of three manipulator motion areas. The elderly people show a higher reliability and a higher familiarity in a robot motion area than in the other two motions. The elderly people seem to be more affected by the manipulator motion than the young people. Therefore, a careful consideration is required when planning the motion of a manipulator for elderly people.

  12. Prediction of Alzheimer disease in subjects with amnestic and nonamnestic MCI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, Stephanie J B; van Rossum, Ineke A; Verhey, Frans; Knol, Dirk L; Soininen, Hilkka; Wahlund, Lars-Olof; Hampel, Harald; Tsolaki, Magda; Minthon, Lennart; Frisoni, Giovanni B; Froelich, Lutz; Nobili, Flavio; van der Flier, Wiesje; Blennow, Kaj; Wolz, Robin; Scheltens, Philip; Visser, Pieter Jelle

    2013-03-19

    To compare the predictive accuracy of β-amyloid (Aβ)1-42 and total tau in CSF, hippocampal volume (HCV), and APOE genotype for Alzheimer disease (AD)-type dementia in subjects with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) and nonamnestic mild cognitive impairment (naMCI). We selected 399 subjects with aMCI and 226 subjects with naMCI from a multicenter memory clinic-based cohort. We measured CSF Aβ1-42 and tau by ELISA (n = 231), HCV on MRI (n = 388), and APOE ε4 (n = 523). Follow-up was performed annually up to 5 years. Outcome measures were progression to AD-type dementia and cognitive decline. At least 1 follow-up was available for 538 subjects (86%). One hundred thirty-two subjects with aMCI (38%) and 39 subjects with naMCI (20%) progressed to AD-type dementia after an average follow-up of 2.5 years. CSF Aβ1-42, tau, Aβ1-42/tau ratio, HCV, and APOE ε4 predicted AD-type dementia in each MCI subgroup with the same overall diagnostic accuracy. However, CSF Aβ1-42 concentration was higher and hippocampal atrophy less severe in subjects with naMCI compared with aMCI. This reduced the sensitivity but increased the specificity of these markers for AD-type dementia in subjects with naMCI. AD biomarkers are useful to predict AD-type dementia in subjects with aMCI and naMCI. However, biomarkers might not be as sensitive for early diagnosis of AD in naMCI compared with aMCI. This may have implications for clinical implementation of the National Institute on Aging and Alzheimer's Association criteria.

  13. Prediction of Alzheimer disease in subjects with amnestic and nonamnestic MCI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, S.J.B.; van Rossum, I.A.; Verhey, F.; Knol, D.L.; Soininen, H.; Wahlund, L.O.; Hampel, H.; Tsolaki, M.; Minthon, L.; Frisoni, G. B.; Froelich, L.; Nobili, F.; van der Flier, W.M.; Blennow, K.; Wolz, R.; Scheltens, P.; Visser, P.J.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To compare the predictive accuracy of β-amyloid (Aβ)1-42 and total tau in CSF, hippocampal volume (HCV), and APOE genotype for Alzheimer disease (AD)-type dementia in subjects with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) and nonamnestic mild cognitive impairment (naMCI). Methods: We

  14. A subject-specific musculoskeletal modeling framework to predict in vivo mechanics of total knee arthroplasty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marra, M.A.; Vanheule, V.; Fluit, R.; Koopman, B.H.; Rasmussen, J.; Verdonschot, N.J.; Andersen, M.S.

    2015-01-01

    Musculoskeletal (MS) models should be able to integrate patient-specific MS architecture and undergo thorough validation prior to their introduction into clinical practice. We present a methodology to develop subject-specific models able to simultaneously predict muscle, ligament, and knee joint

  15. Single-subject prediction of response inhibition behavior by event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Ann-Kathrin; Popescu, Florin; Neuhaus, Andres H; Beste, Christian

    2016-03-01

    Much research has been devoted to investigating response inhibition and the neuronal processes constituting this essential cognitive faculty. However, the nexus between cognitive subprocesses, behavior, and electrophysiological processes remains associative in nature. We therefore investigated whether neurophysiological correlates of inhibition subprocesses merely correlate with behavioral performance or actually provide information expedient to the prediction of behavior on a single-subject level. Tackling this question, we used different data-driven classification approaches in a sample of n = 262 healthy young subjects who completed a standard Go/Nogo task while an EEG was recorded. On the basis of median-split response inhibition performance, subjects were classified as "accurate/slow" and "less accurate/fast." Even though these behavioral group differences were associated with significant amplitude variations in classical electrophysiological correlates of response inhibition (i.e., N2 and P3), they were not predictive for group membership on a single-subject level. Instead, amplitude differences in the Go-P2 originating in the precuneus (BA7) were shown to predict group membership on a single-subject level with up to 64% accuracy. These findings strongly suggest that the behavioral outcome of response inhibition greatly depends on the amount of cognitive resources allocated to early stages of stimulus-response activation during responding. This suggests that research should focus more on early processing steps during responding when trying to understand the origin of interindividual differences in response inhibition processes. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  16. A Predictive Model of the Prevalence of Delirium in Elderly Subjects Admitted to Nursing Homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Ros, Pilar; Martinez-Arnau, Francisco Miguel; Baixauli-Alacreu, Susana; Garcia-Gollarte, Jose Fermin; Tarazona-Santabalbina, Francisco

    2017-11-20

    Delirium is common in geriatric patients admitted to nursing homes, with an incidence of 22-79% among long-term residents. To establish a predictive model of the risk of delirium episodes in a sample of elderly people living in nursing homes. A retrospective, cross-sectional case-control study covering a period of 12 consecutive months (April 2014 - March 2015) was carried out. The included cases had suffered at least one episode of delirium during the study period. Sociodemographic and clinical variables as well as risk factors predisposing to or triggering episodes of delirium were recorded. A total of 193 cases and 123 controls were recruited. The mean age of the cases was 89.6 years (SD 6.9), and 75.1% were women. The mean age of the controls was 84.7 years (SD 7.42), and 75.6% were women. The prevalence of delirium was 60.7%. The presence of infections (with the exception of urinary tract infections) was the variable offering the best predictive capacity (OR=7.08; 95%CI: 3.30-15.02; p<0.001). Other predictors of delirium were also identified, such as a previous diagnosis of dementia (OR=3.14; 95%CI: 1.81-5.45; p<0.001), the use of anticholinergic drugs (OR=2.98;95%CI: 1.34-6.60; p=0.007), a diagnosis of depression (OR=1.92; 95%CI: 1.03-3.56; p=0.039), and urinary incontinence (OR=1.73; 95%CI: 0.97-3.08; p=0.065). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.794 (95%CI: 0.74-0.84; p<0.001). The prevalence of delirium among elderly subjects admitted to nursing homes was 60.7%. Infections (with the exception of urinary tract infections), dementia, anticholinergic drug use, depression and urinary incontinence were predictive of the presence of delirium. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  17. Single subject prediction of brain disorders in neuroimaging: Promises and pitfalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbabshirani, Mohammad R; Plis, Sergey; Sui, Jing; Calhoun, Vince D

    2017-01-15

    Neuroimaging-based single subject prediction of brain disorders has gained increasing attention in recent years. Using a variety of neuroimaging modalities such as structural, functional and diffusion MRI, along with machine learning techniques, hundreds of studies have been carried out for accurate classification of patients with heterogeneous mental and neurodegenerative disorders such as schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease. More than 500 studies have been published during the past quarter century on single subject prediction focused on a multiple brain disorders. In the first part of this study, we provide a survey of more than 200 reports in this field with a focus on schizophrenia, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), Alzheimer's disease (AD), depressive disorders, autism spectrum disease (ASD) and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Detailed information about those studies such as sample size, type and number of extracted features and reported accuracy are summarized and discussed. To our knowledge, this is by far the most comprehensive review of neuroimaging-based single subject prediction of brain disorders. In the second part, we present our opinion on major pitfalls of those studies from a machine learning point of view. Common biases are discussed and suggestions are provided. Moreover, emerging trends such as decentralized data sharing, multimodal brain imaging, differential diagnosis, disease subtype classification and deep learning are also discussed. Based on this survey, there is extensive evidence showing the great potential of neuroimaging data for single subject prediction of various disorders. However, the main bottleneck of this exciting field is still the limited sample size, which could be potentially addressed by modern data sharing models such as the ones discussed in this paper. Emerging big data technologies and advanced data-intensive machine learning methodologies such as deep learning have coincided with an increasing need

  18. Predicting saturated fat consumption: exploring the role of subjective well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, Barbara; Xavier, Kristina

    2013-01-01

    Consumption of saturated fat (SF) is associated with obesity, cardiovascular disease and cancer; which are among the leading causes of death in Australia and worldwide. A causal relationship between subjective well-being and positive health outcomes has been established, although few studies have specifically focused on health-enhancing or health-risk behaviours. The aim of this research was to develop an improved understanding of the processes underlying SF consumption by exploring the relationship between subjective well-being and SF consumption, within the Theory of Planned Behaviour framework. Questionnaires related to the TPB variables, subjective well-being and SF intake were administered online to 96 participants. Perceived behavioural control (PBC) was found to be a significant predictor of intention to limit SF intake. Intention and PBC accounted for 25% of variance in behaviour; with PBC the only significant predictor of SF consumption. While subjective well-being variables were not significant unique predictors of SF consumption, these variables contributed an additional 2% to the prediction of behaviour, and this model was significant. The addition of subjective well-being to the TPB is novel and the results partially support the potential of subjective well-being in improving the prediction of this health-risk behaviour. Future research will need to replicate and extend these preliminary findings before such a framework may be translated into an intervention targeting SF consumption.

  19. Prediction of accommodative optical response in prepresbyopic subjects using ultrasound biomicroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramasubramanian, Viswanathan; Glasser, Adrian

    2015-05-01

    To determine whether relatively low-resolution ultrasound biomicroscopy (UBM) can be used to predict the accommodative optical response in prepresbyopic eyes as well as in a previous study of young phakic subjects, despite lower accommodative amplitudes. College of Optometry, University of Houston, Houston, USA. Observational cross-sectional study. Static accommodative optical response was measured with infrared photorefraction and an autorefractor (WR-5100K) in subjects aged 36 to 46 years. A 35 MHz UBM device (Vumax, Sonomed Escalon) was used to image the left eye, while the right eye viewed accommodative stimuli. Custom-developed Matlab image-analysis software was used to perform automated analysis of UBM images to measure the ocular biometry parameters. The accommodative optical response was predicted from biometry parameters using linear regression, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and 95% prediction intervals. The study evaluated 25 subjects. Per-diopter (D) accommodative changes in anterior chamber depth (ACD), lens thickness, anterior and posterior lens radii of curvature, and anterior segment length were similar to previous values from young subjects. The standard deviations (SDs) of accommodative optical response predicted from linear regressions for UBM-measured biometry parameters were ACD, 0.15 D; lens thickness, 0.25 D; anterior lens radii of curvature, 0.09 D; posterior lens radii of curvature, 0.37 D; and anterior segment length, 0.42 D. Ultrasound biomicroscopy parameters can, on average, predict accommodative optical responses with SDs of less than 0.55 D using linear regressions and 95% CIs. Ultrasound biomicroscopy can be used to visualize and quantify accommodative biometric changes and predict accommodative optical response in prepresbyopic eyes. Copyright © 2015 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Fasting Lipoprotein Lipase Protein Levels Can Predict a Postmeal Increment of Triglyceride Levels in Fasting Normohypertriglyceridemic Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuzaki, Kokoro; Kotani, Kazuhiko; Yamada, Kazunori; Sakane, Naoki

    2016-09-01

    Although a postprandial increment in triglyceride (TG) levels is considered to be a risk factor for atherogenesis, tests (e.g., fat load) to assess postprandial changes in TG levels cannot be easily applied to clinical practice. Therefore, fasting markers that predict postprandial TG states are needed to be developed. One current candidate is lipoprotein lipase (LPL) protein, a molecule that hydrides TGs. This study investigated whether fasting LPL levels could predict postprandial TG levels. A total of 17 subjects (11 men, 6 women, mean age 52 ± 11 years) with normotriglyceridemia during fasting underwent the meal test. Several fasting parameters, including LPL, were measured for the area under the curve of postprandial TGs (AUC-TG). The subjects' mean fasting TG level was 1.30 mmol/l, and their mean LPL level was 41.6 ng/ml. The subjects' TG levels increased after loading (they peaked after two postprandial hours). Stepwise multiple regression analysis demonstrated that fasting TG levels were a predictor of the AUC-TG. In addition, fasting LPL mass levels were found to be a predictor of the AUC-TG (β = 0.65, P fasting TG levels. Fasting LPL levels may be useful to predict postprandial TG increment in this population. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Chewing side, bite force symmetry, and occlusal contact area of subjects with different facial vertical patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Guimarães Farias Gomes

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Craniofacial dimensions influence oral functions; however, it is not known whether they are associated with function asymmetry. The objective of this study was to evaluate chewing side preference and lateral asymmetry of occlusal contact area and bite force of individuals with different craniofacial patterns. Seventy-eight dentate subjects were divided into 3 groups according to the VERT index as follows: (1 mesofacial, (2 brachyfacial and (3 dolichofacial. Chewing side preference was evaluated using jaw tracking equipment, occlusal contact area was measured by silicon registration of posterior teeth, and bite force was measured unilaterally on molar regions using 2.25 mm-thick sensors. Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA on Ranks, Student's t-test, and Mann-Whitney tests at a 5% significance level. Mesofacial, brachyfacial, and dolichofacial subjects presented more occlusal contact area on the left side. Only dolichofacial subjects showed lateral asymmetry for bite force, presenting higher force on the left side. No statistically significant differences were found for chewing side preference among all groups. Within the limitations of this study, it can be concluded that craniofacial dimensions play a role in asymmetry of bite force. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01286363.

  2. Condylar volume and condylar area in class I, class II and class III young adult subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saccucci Matteo

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim Aim of this study was to compare the volume and the shape of mandibular condyles in a Caucasian young adult population, with different skeletal pattern. Material and methods 200 Caucasian patients (15–30 years old, 95 male and 105 females were classified in three groups on the base of ANB angle: skeletal class I (65 patients, skeletal class II (70 patients and skeletal class III (65 patients. Left and right TMJs of each subject were evaluated independently with CBCT (Iluma. TMJ evaluation included: condylar volume; condylar area; morphological index (MI. Condylar volumes were calculated by using the Mimics software. The condylar volume, the area and the morphological index (MI were compared among the three groups, by using non-parametric tests. Results The Kruskal-Wallis test and the Mann Whitney test revealed that: no significant difference was observed in the whole sample between the right and the left condylar volume; subjects in skeletal class III showed a significantly higher condylar volume, respect to class I and class II subjects (p 3 in males and 663.5 ± 81.3 mm3 in females; p 2 in males and 389.76 ± 61.15 mm2 in females; p  Conclusion Skeletal class appeared to be associated to the mandibular condylar volume and to the mandibular condylar area in the Caucasian orthodontic population.

  3. Exploring predictive and reproducible modeling with the single-subject FIAC dataset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xu; Pereira, Francisco; Lee, Wayne; Strother, Stephen; Mitchell, Tom

    2006-05-01

    Predictive modeling of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has the potential to expand the amount of information extracted and to enhance our understanding of brain systems by predicting brain states, rather than emphasizing the standard spatial mapping. Based on the block datasets of Functional Imaging Analysis Contest (FIAC) Subject 3, we demonstrate the potential and pitfalls of predictive modeling in fMRI analysis by investigating the performance of five models (linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, linear support vector machine, Gaussian naive Bayes, and a variant) as a function of preprocessing steps and feature selection methods. We found that: (1) independent of the model, temporal detrending and feature selection assisted in building a more accurate predictive model; (2) the linear support vector machine and logistic regression often performed better than either of the Gaussian naive Bayes models in terms of the optimal prediction accuracy; and (3) the optimal prediction accuracy obtained in a feature space using principal components was typically lower than that obtained in a voxel space, given the same model and same preprocessing. We show that due to the existence of artifacts from different sources, high prediction accuracy alone does not guarantee that a classifier is learning a pattern of brain activity that might be usefully visualized, although cross-validation methods do provide fairly unbiased estimates of true prediction accuracy. The trade-off between the prediction accuracy and the reproducibility of the spatial pattern should be carefully considered in predictive modeling of fMRI. We suggest that unless the experimental goal is brain-state classification of new scans on well-defined spatial features, prediction alone should not be used as an optimization procedure in fMRI data analysis.

  4. Objective but not subjective sleep predicts memory in community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavuoto, Marina G; Ong, Ben; Pike, Kerryn E; Nicholas, Christian L; Bei, Bei; Kinsella, Glynda J

    2016-08-01

    Research on the relationship between habitual sleep patterns and memory performance in older adults is limited. No previous study has used objective and subjective memory measures in a large, older-aged sample to examine the association between sleep and various domains of memory. The aim of this study was to examine the association between objective and subjective measures of sleep with memory performance in older adults, controlling for the effects of potential confounds. One-hundred and seventy-three community-dwelling older adults aged 65-89 years in Victoria, Australia completed the study. Objective sleep quality and length were ascertained using the Actiwatch 2 Mini-Mitter, while subjective sleep was measured using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. Memory was indexed by tests of retrospective memory (Hopkins Verbal Learning Test - Revised), working memory (n-back, 2-back accuracy) and prospective memory (a habitual button pressing task). Compared with normative data, overall performance on retrospective memory function was within the average range. Hierarchical regression was used to determine whether objective or subjective measures of sleep predicted memory performances after controlling for demographics, health and mood. After controlling for confounds, actigraphic sleep indices (greater wake after sleep onset, longer sleep-onset latency and longer total sleep time) predicted poorer retrospective (∆R(2)  = 0.05, P = 0.016) and working memory (∆R(2)  = 0.05, P = 0.047). In contrast, subjective sleep indices did not significantly predict memory performances. In community-based older adults, objectively-measured, habitual sleep indices predict poorer memory performances. It will be important to follow the sample longitudinally to determine trajectories of change over time. © 2016 European Sleep Research Society.

  5. Predicting employment status and subjective quality of life in patients with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruo Fujino

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Although impaired social functioning, particularly poor employment status, is a cardinal feature of patients with schizophrenia and leads to decreased quality of life (QOL, few studies have addressed the relationship between these two clinical issues. The aim of this study was to determine whether employment status predicts subjective QOL and to evaluate a model in which functional capacity mediates the relationship between general cognitive performance and employment status. Ninety-three patients with schizophrenia were administered a comprehensive battery of cognitive tests, the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief version (UPSA-B, the Social Functioning Scale (SFS, and the Subjective Quality of Life Scale (SQLS. First, we evaluated a model for predicting the employment/occupation subscale score of the SFS using path analysis, and the model fitted well (χ2 (4 = 3.6, p = 0.46; CFI = 1.0; RMSEA < 0.001, with 90% CIs: 0–0.152. Employment status was predicted by negative symptoms and functional capacity, which was in turn predicted by general cognitive performance. Second, we added subjective QOL to this model. In a final path model, QOL was predicted by negative symptoms and employment status. This model also satisfied good fit criteria (χ2 (7 = 10.3, p = 0.17; CFI = 0.987; RMSEA = 0.072, with 90% CIs: 0–0.159. The UPSA-B and SFS scores were moderately correlated with most measures of cognitive performance. These results support the notion that better employment status enhances subjective QOL in patients with schizophrenia.

  6. Condylar volume and condylar area in class I, class II and class III young adult subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccucci, Matteo; D'Attilio, Michele; Rodolfino, Daria; Festa, Felice; Polimeni, Antonella; Tecco, Simona

    2012-12-14

    Aim of this study was to compare the volume and the shape of mandibular condyles in a Caucasian young adult population, with different skeletal pattern. 200 Caucasian patients (15-30 years old, 95 male and 105 females) were classified in three groups on the base of ANB angle: skeletal class I (65 patients), skeletal class II (70 patients) and skeletal class III (65 patients). Left and right TMJs of each subject were evaluated independently with CBCT (Iluma). TMJ evaluation included: condylar volume; condylar area; morphological index (MI). Condylar volumes were calculated by using the Mimics software. The condylar volume, the area and the morphological index (MI) were compared among the three groups, by using non-parametric tests. The Kruskal-Wallis test and the Mann Whitney test revealed that: no significant difference was observed in the whole sample between the right and the left condylar volume; subjects in skeletal class III showed a significantly higher condylar volume, respect to class I and class II subjects (p condylar volume was observed in class II subjects, respect to class I and class III (p condylar volume (699.8 ± 63.07 mm3 in males and 663.5 ± 81.3 mm3 in females; p condylar surface (423.24 ± 63.03 mm2 in males and 389.76 ± 61.15 mm2 in females; p condylar volume and to the mandibular condylar area in the Caucasian orthodontic population.

  7. Predicting the residual strength of open-hole (OH) composite specimens subjected to cyclic loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceparano, Angelo; Dell'Aversano, Raffaella

    2016-05-01

    A procedure is reported that allows the prediction of the fatigue life and the residual strength of "open hole" composite specimens subjected to constant amplitude cyclic loadings. Based on a two-parameter phenomenological model explicitly accounting for the maximum applied stress, σmax, and the stress ratio, R, the procedure relies on a relatively small set of experimental fatigue life data. The approach reliability is checked in predicting the fatigue life and residual strength of AS4 carbon/epoxy 3k/E7K8 Plain Weave Fabric "open-hole" (OH) samples subjected to a very broad loading conditions from prevailing tension (R=0 and R=-0.2) to compression (R=5) to mixed tension/compression (R=-1) loadings.

  8. [Characterization of the leadership subject areas in the respiratory field in Spain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Granda-Orive, J I; García-Río, F; Roig-Vázquez, F; Aleixandre-Benavent, R; Valderrama-Zurían, J C; Martínez-Albiach, J M; Callol-Sánchez, L

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this study was to characterize the leading topics in respiratory system in Spain through a bibliometric analysis. For identify and characterize the performance of the different research topics in respiratory system in Spain, we compile the production using a journal that turn out representative of a broad group of researcher. In this sense the journal Archivos de Bronconeumología is the most important publication in Spanish language of this field. A total of 2198 articles published in Archivos Bronconeumología from 1970 to 2000 were analyzed. In each three decades, we did not found differences except in the productivity index in oncology in the eighty decade and in respiratory failure and sleep disturbance (RFSD) and oncology areas in the ninetieth decade and in the Price index (consumption indicators) in the diagnostic and therapeutic techniques area in seventy decade. When we compare the productivity index of each subject areas between decades, we found a significant production increase in the ninetieth decade in asthma, RFSD, tuberculosis, non tuberculosis infection, circulation, oncology, pleural disease and interstitial areas versus the same in seventy decade, and also, we found significant differences between ninetieth and eighty decades in the asthma, RFSD, non tuberculosis infection, circulation and pleural disease areas. Tuberculosis area maintains an insularity index higher than the other areas. We also found a progressive increase in the insularity index of RFSD, non tuberculosis infection, oncology and interstitial disease areas. In general all the indicators maintains stable although the more productivity topics were respiratory failure and sleep disturbances, and oncology. The productivity has increased in asthma, respiratory failure and sleep disturbances, tuberculosis, non - tuberculosis respiratory infections, oncology, pulmonary circulation, pleura and interstitial disease.

  9. Subject-specific knee joint geometry improves predictions of medial tibiofemoral contact forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerus, Pauline; Sartori, Massimo; Besier, Thor F.; Fregly, Benjamin J.; Delp, Scott L.; Banks, Scott A.; Pandy, Marcus G.; D’Lima, Darryl D.; Lloyd, David G.

    2013-01-01

    Estimating tibiofemoral joint contact forces is important for understanding the initiation and progression of knee osteoarthritis. However, tibiofemoral contact force predictions are influenced by many factors including muscle forces and anatomical representations of the knee joint. This study aimed to investigate the influence of subject-specific geometry and knee joint kinematics on the prediction of tibiofemoral contact forces using a calibrated EMG-driven neuromusculoskeletal model of the knee. One participant fitted with an instrumented total knee replacement walked at a self-selected speed while medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact forces, ground reaction forces, whole-body kinematics, and lower-limb muscle activity were simultaneously measured. The combination of generic and subject-specific knee joint geometry and kinematics resulted in four different OpenSim models used to estimate muscle-tendon lengths and moment arms. The subject-specific geometric model was created from CT scans and the subject-specific knee joint kinematics representing the translation of the tibia relative to the femur was obtained from fluoroscopy. The EMG-driven model was calibrated using one walking trial, but with three different cost functions that tracked the knee flexion/extension moments with and without constraint over the estimated joint contact forces. The calibrated models then predicted the medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact forces for five other different walking trials. The use of subject-specific models with minimization of the peak tibiofemoral contact forces improved the accuracy of medial contact forces by 47% and lateral contact forces by 7%, respectively compared with the use of generic musculoskeletal model. PMID:24074941

  10. Subject-specific computational modeling of DBS in the PPTg area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zitella, Laura M.; Teplitzky, Benjamin A.; Yager, Paul; Hudson, Heather M.; Brintz, Katelynn; Duchin, Yuval; Harel, Noam; Vitek, Jerrold L.; Baker, Kenneth B.; Johnson, Matthew D.

    2015-01-01

    Deep brain stimulation (DBS) in the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPTg) has been proposed to alleviate medically intractable gait difficulties associated with Parkinson's disease. Clinical trials have shown somewhat variable outcomes, stemming in part from surgical targeting variability, modulating fiber pathways implicated in side effects, and a general lack of mechanistic understanding of DBS in this brain region. Subject-specific computational models of DBS are a promising tool to investigate the underlying therapy and side effects. In this study, a parkinsonian rhesus macaque was implanted unilaterally with an 8-contact DBS lead in the PPTg region. Fiber tracts adjacent to PPTg, including the oculomotor nerve, central tegmental tract, and superior cerebellar peduncle, were reconstructed from a combination of pre-implant 7T MRI, post-implant CT, and post-mortem histology. These structures were populated with axon models and coupled with a finite element model simulating the voltage distribution in the surrounding neural tissue during stimulation. This study introduces two empirical approaches to evaluate model parameters. First, incremental monopolar cathodic stimulation (20 Hz, 90 μs pulse width) was evaluated for each electrode, during which a right eyelid flutter was observed at the proximal four contacts (−1.0 to −1.4 mA). These current amplitudes followed closely with model predicted activation of the oculomotor nerve when assuming an anisotropic conduction medium. Second, PET imaging was collected OFF-DBS and twice during DBS (two different contacts), which supported the model predicted activation of the central tegmental tract and superior cerebellar peduncle. Together, subject-specific models provide a framework to more precisely predict pathways modulated by DBS. PMID:26236229

  11. Subject-specific computational modeling of DBS in the PPTg area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura M. Zitella

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Deep brain stimulation (DBS in the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPTg has been proposed to alleviate medically intractable gait difficulties associated with Parkinson’s disease. Clinical trials have shown somewhat variable outcomes, stemming in part from surgical targeting variability, modulating fiber pathways implicated in side effects, and a general lack of mechanistic understanding of DBS in this brain region. Subject-specific computational models of DBS are a promising tool to investigate the underlying therapy and side effects. In this study, a parkinsonian rhesus macaque was implanted unilaterally with an 8-contact DBS lead in the PPTg region. Fiber tracts adjacent to PPTg, including the oculomotor nerve, central tegmental tract, and superior cerebellar peduncle, were reconstructed from a combination of pre-implant 7T MRI, post-implant CT, and post-mortem histology. These structures were populated with axon models and coupled with a finite element model simulating the voltage distribution in the surrounding neural tissue during stimulation. This study introduces two empirical approaches to evaluate model parameters. First, incremental monopolar cathodic stimulation (20Hz, 90µs pulse width was evaluated for each electrode, during which a right eyelid flutter was observed at the proximal four contacts (-1.0 to -1.4mA. These current amplitudes followed closely with model predicted activation of the oculomotor nerve when assuming an anisotropic conduction medium. Second, PET imaging was collected OFF-DBS and twice during DBS (two different contacts, which supported the model predicted activation of the central tegmental tract and superior cerebellar peduncle. Together, subject-specific models provide a framework to more precisely predict pathways modulated by DBS.

  12. Lower "awake and fed thermogenesis" predicts future weight gain in subjects with abdominal adiposity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piaggi, Paolo; Krakoff, Jonathan; Bogardus, Clifton; Thearle, Marie S

    2013-12-01

    Awake and fed thermogenesis (AFT) is the energy expenditure (EE) of the nonactive fed condition above the minimum metabolic requirement during sleep and is composed of the thermic effect of food and the cost of being awake. AFT was estimated from whole-room 24-h EE measures in 509 healthy subjects (368 Native Americans and 141 whites) while subjects consumed a eucaloric diet. Follow-up data were available for 290 Native Americans (median follow-up time: 6.6 years). AFT accounted for ~10% of 24-h EE and explained a significant portion of deviations from expected energy requirements. Energy intake was the major determinant of AFT. AFT, normalized as a percentage of intake, was inversely related to age and fasting glucose concentration and showed a nonlinear relationship with waist circumference and BMI. Spline analysis demonstrated that AFT becomes inversely related to BMI at an inflection point of 29 kg/m(2). The residual variance of AFT, after accounting for covariates, predicted future weight change only in subjects with a BMI >29 kg/m(2). AFT may influence daily energy balance, is reduced in obese individuals, and predicts future weight gain in these subjects. Once central adiposity develops, a blunting of AFT may occur that then contributes to further weight gain.

  13. Predicting the location of human perirhinal cortex, Brodmann's area 35, from MRI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Augustinack, Jean C.; Huber, Kristen E.; Stevens, Allison A.

    2013-01-01

    in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease compared to controls in the predicted perirhinal area 35. Our ex vivo probabilistic mapping of the perirhinal cortex provides histologically validated, automated and accurate labeling of architectonic regions in the medial temporal lobe, and facilitates...... Hausdorff distance was 4.0mm for the left hemispheres (n=7) and 3.2mm for the right hemispheres (n=7) across subjects. To show the utility of perirhinal localization, we mapped our labels to a subset of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset and found decreased cortical thickness measures...

  14. Rigid-Plastic Approximations for Predicting Plastic Deformation of Cylindrical Shells Subject to Dynamic Loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle S. Hoo Fatt

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical approach was developed for predicting the plastic deformation of a cylindrical shell subject to asymmetric dynamic loads. The plastic deformation of the leading generator of the shell is found by solving for the transverse deflections of a rigid-plastic beam/string-on-foundation. The axial bending moment and tensile force in the beam/string are equivalent to the longitudinal bending moments and membrane forces of the shell, while the plastic foundation force is equivalent to the shell circumferential bending moment and membrane resistances. Closed-form solutions for the transient and final deformation profile of an impulsive loaded shell when it is in a “string” state were derived using the eigenfunction expansion method. These results were compared to DYNA 3D predictions. The analytical predictions of the transient shell and final centerline deflections were within 25% of the DYNA 3D results.

  15. Subjective Memory in a National Sample: Predicting Psychological Well-Being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogle, Jacqueline A; Hill, Nikki; McDermott, Caroline

    2017-01-01

    Individual perception of memory performance (i.e., subjective memory) is assessed using a variety of approaches. This article focuses on 2 such approaches: (1) self-comparison assessments that attempt to capture changes in memory ability over a period of time and (2) age-anchored comparisons that assess how an individual perceives their memory in relation to others their age. These different types of assessment may relate to psychological well-being differently due to the underlying mechanisms of assessment. The purpose of these analyses is to examine 2 measures of subjective memory (i.e., a self-comparison measure and an age-anchored comparison measure) as predictors of psychological well-being among adults in mid- and late life. Participants (n = 3,434) in the Midlife in the United States Study completed measures of subjective memory, depressive affect, and life satisfaction. Structural equation modeling was used to examine whether the self-comparison and age-anchored comparison measures had differential predictive utility regarding psychological well-being. Higher age-anchored comparison ratings were related to higher life satisfaction scores. There was a significant interaction between the 2 items such that individuals with lower ratings on both subjective memory measures had the poorest outcomes. Additionally, age-anchored comparisons interacted with age: older adults had the poorest outcomes when they reported poorer age-anchored comparisons. These findings highlight the importance of precise measurement in the consideration of subjective memory. How an individual was asked to rate his or her perception of memory influenced the relationships between subjective memory and psychological well-being. This study contributes valuable insight into the importance of the assessment models of subjective memory. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Blood biomonitoring of metals in subjects living near abandoned mining and active industrial areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madeddu, Roberto; Tolu, Paola; Asara, Yolande; Farace, Cristiano; Forte, Giovanni; Bocca, Beatrice

    2013-07-01

    A human blood biomonitoring campaign to detect the environmental exposure to metals (Cd, Cu, Cr, Mn, Pb and Zn) in 265 subjects was performed in the South-Western part of Sardinia (an Italian island) that is a particular area with a great history of coal and metal mining (Pb/Zn mainly) activities and large industrial structures (as metallurgy). Subjects living near the industrial plant area had geometric means (GM) of blood Cd (0.79 μg/l), Cu (971 μg/l), Mn (12.2 μg/l), and Pb (55.7 μg/l) significantly higher than controls (Cd, 0.47 μg/l; Cu, 900 μg/l; Mn 9.98 μg/l; Pb, 26.5 μg/l) and than people living nearby the past mining sites. Subjects living next to one dismissed mine were statistically higher in blood Cu (GM, 1,022 μg/l) and Pb (GM, 41.4 μg/l) concentrations than controls. No differences were observed in people living in the different mining sites, and this might be related to the decennial disclosure of mines and the adoption of environmental remediation programmes. Some interindividual variables influenced blood biomonitoring data, as smoke and age for Cd, gender for Cu, age, sex and alcohol for Pb, and age for Zn. Moreover, blood metal levels of the whole population were similar to reference values representative of the Sardinian population and acceptably safe according to currently available health guidelines.

  17. 75 FR 26967 - Guidance for Industry: Use of Water by Food Manufacturers in Areas Subject to a Boil-Water...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-13

    ... Areas Subject to a Boil-Water Advisory; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION... entitled ``Guidance for Industry: Use of Water by Food Manufacturers in Areas Subject to a Boil-Water Advisory.'' This guidance is intended to advise food manufacturers that once a boil-water advisory has been...

  18. Academic Majors and Subject-Area Certifications of Health Education Teachers in the United States, 2011-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardina, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify academic preparation and subject-area certifications of K-12 public school staff teaching at least one health education class during 2011-2012 academic year. In general, teachers who are well qualified to teach a subject area are more likely to positively affect student achievement. Methods: Data…

  19. Examination of Associations Among Three Distinct Subjective Aging Constructs and Their Relevance for Predicting Developmental Correlates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brothers, Allyson; Miche, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

    2017-07-01

    This study examined (a) the empirical associations among three subjective aging (SA) constructs: felt age, attitudes toward own aging (ATOA), and awareness of age-related change (AARC); (b) the moderating role of chronological age in these associations; and (c) the predictive relevance of the SA constructs with regard to two developmental correlates: functional health and satisfaction with life. Participants were 819 adults aged 40-98 years from the United States and Germany. Parallel multiple mediation, moderated mediation, and hierarchical regression analyses were used. As hypothesized, AARC mediated the association between the global measures of SA (felt age and ATOA) and the developmental correlates. Specifically, more negative global subjective aging predicted more AARC losses, which predicted poorer health and well-being. Furthermore, this mediation pathway was moderated by chronological age, such that, with increasing age, greater AARC was more strongly related to poorer functional health (but not well-being). The multidimensional measure, AARC, accounted for a significant amount of the variance in the developmental correlates over and above the unidimensional SA constructs. A consistent pattern emerged supporting the role of domain specificity and valence. These findings support the need for conceptualizing SA across different behavioral domains and for distinguishing between positive and negative SA.

  20. Predictive Clinical Parameters and Glycemic Efficacy of Vildagliptin Treatment in Korean Subjects with Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Sun Chang

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe aims of this study are to investigate the glycemic efficacy and predictive parameters of vildagliptin therapy in Korean subjects with type 2 diabetes.MethodsIn this retrospective study, we retrieved data for subjects who were on twice-daily 50 mg vildagliptin for at least 6 months, and classified the subjects into five treatment groups. In three of the groups, we added vildagliptin to their existing medication regimen; in the other two groups, we replaced one of their existing medications with vildagliptin. We then analyzed the changes in glucose parameters and clinical characteristics.ResultsUltimately, 327 subjects were analyzed in this study. Vildagliptin significantly improved hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c levels over 6 months. The changes in HbA1c levels (ΔHbA1c at month 6 were -2.24% (P=0.000, -0.77% (P=0.000, -0.80% (P=0.001, -0.61% (P=0.000, and -0.34% (P=0.025 for groups 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively, with significance. We also found significant decrements in fasting plasma glucose levels in groups 1, 2, 3, and 4 (P<0.05. Of the variables, initial HbA1c levels (P=0.032 and history of sulfonylurea use (P=0.026 were independently associated with responsiveness to vildagliptin treatment.ConclusionVildagliptin was effective when it was used in subjects with poor glycemic control. It controlled fasting plasma glucose levels as well as sulfonylurea treatment in Korean type 2 diabetic subjects.

  1. Increased cortical area and thickness in the distal radius in subjects with SHOX-gene mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederiksen, A L; Hansen, S; Brixen, K; Frost, M

    2014-12-01

    Short-stature homeobox (SHOX) gene haploinsufficiency may cause skeletal dysplasia including Léri-Weill Dyschondrosteosis (LWD), a clinical entity characterised by the triad of low height, mesomelic disproportion and Madelung's deformity of the wrist. Bone microarchitecture and estimated strength in adult SHOX mutation carriers have not been examined. Twenty-two subjects with a SHOX mutation including 7 males and 15 females with a median age of 38.8 [21.1-52.2] years were recruited from five unrelated families. The control group consisted of 22 healthy subjects matched on age and sex. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Bone geometry, volumetric density, microarchitecture and finite element estimated (FEA) bone strength were measured using high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT). A full region of interest (ROI) image analysis and height-matched ROI analyses adjusting for differences in body height between the two groups were performed. Areal BMD and T-scores showed no significant differences between cases and controls. Total radius area was smaller in cases than controls (207 [176-263] vs. 273 [226-298] mm, pRadius cortical bone area (74 ± 20 vs. 58 ± 17 mm(2), p=0.01) and thickness (1.16 ± 0.30 vs. 0.84 ± 0.26 mm, pRadius trabecular bone area (119 [103-192] vs. 202 [168-247] mm(2), pradius and tibia cortical porosity or FEA failure load between groups. A segment of cortical bone defect was identified in the distal radius adjacent to ulna in five unrelated SHOX mutation carriers. Subjects with a SHOX mutation presented with a different bone geometry in radius and tibia while there were no differences in BMD or failure load compared to controls, suggesting that mutations in SHOX gene may have an impact on bone microarchitecture albeit not bone strength. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Nonrandom Acts of Kindness: Parasympathetic and Subjective Empathic Responses to Sadness Predict Children’s Prosociality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jonas G.; Nuselovici, Jacob N.; Hastings, Paul D.

    2016-01-01

    How does empathic physiology unfold as a dynamic process, and which aspect of empathy predicts children’s kindness? In response to empathy induction videos, 4–6 year-old children (N = 180) showed an average pattern of dynamic respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) change characterized by early RSA suppression followed by RSA recovery, and modest subsequent suppression during positive resolution of the empathic event. Children’s capacity for this pattern of flexible RSA change was associated with their subjective empathic feelings, which were concurrently associated with more sympathetic and prosocial responses to others. Conversely, only children’s dynamic RSA change longitudinally predicted prosocial behavior two years later. These findings have implications for understanding the dynamic and multifaceted nature of empathy, and its relation with prosocial development. PMID:28262932

  3. Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This report documents the outcome of the assessment.

  4. Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading: Appendices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O.; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

  5. Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading. [Appendices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O.; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

  6. Refractive error study in young subjects: results from a rural area in Paraguay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signes-Soler, Isabel; Hernández-Verdejo, José Luis; Estrella Lumeras, Miguel Angel; Tomás Verduras, Elena; Piñero, David P.

    2017-01-01

    AIM To evaluate the distribution of refractive error in young subjects in a rural area of Paraguay in the context of an international cooperation campaign for the prevention of blindness. METHODS A sample of 1466 young subjects (ranging from 3 to 22 years old), with a mean age of 11.21±3.63 years old, were examined to assess their distance visual acuity (VA) and refractive error. The first screening examination performed by trained volunteers, included visual acuity testing, autokeratometry and non-cycloplegic autorefraction. Inclusion criteria for a second complete cycloplegic eye examination by an optometrist were VA <20/25 (0.10 logMAR or 0.8 decimal) and/or corneal astigmatism ≥1.50 D. RESULTS An uncorrected distance VA of 0 logMAR (1.0 decimal) was found in 89.2% of children. VA <20/25 and/or corneal astigmatism ≥1.50 D was found in 3.9% of children (n=57), with a prevalence of hyperopia of 5.2% (0.2% of the total) in this specific group. Furthermore, myopia (spherical equivalent ≤-0.5 D) was found in 37.7% of the refracted children (0.5% of the total). The prevalence of refractive astigmatism (cylinder ≤-1.50 D) was 15.8% (0.6% of the total). Visual impairment (VI) (0.05≤VA≤0.3) was found in 12/114 (0.4%) of the refracted eyes. Main causes for VI were refractive error (58%), retinal problems (17%, 2/12), albinism (17%, 2/12) and unknown (8%, 1/12). CONCLUSION A low prevalence of refractive error has been found in this rural area of Paraguay, with higher prevalence of myopia than of hyperopia. PMID:28393041

  7. Refractive error study in young subjects: results from a rural area in Paraguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Signes-Soler

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To evaluate the distribution of refractive error in young subjects in a rural area of Paraguay in the context of an international cooperation campaign for the prevention of blindness. METHODS: A sample of 1466 young subjects (ranging from 3 to 22 years old, with a mean age of 11.21±3.63 years old, were examined to assess their distance visual acuity (VA and refractive error. The first screening examination performed by trained volunteers, included visual acuity testing, autokeratometry and non-cycloplegic autorefraction. Inclusion criteria for a second complete cycloplegic eye examination by an optometrist were VA <20/25 (0.10 logMAR or 0.8 decimal and/or corneal astigmatism ≥1.50 D. RESULTS: An uncorrected distance VA of 0 logMAR (1.0 decimal was found in 89.2% of children. VA <20/25 and/or corneal astigmatism ≥1.50 D was found in 3.9% of children (n=57, with a prevalence of hyperopia of 5.2% (0.2% of the total in this specific group. Furthermore, myopia (spherical equivalent ≤-0.5 D was found in 37.7% of the refracted children (0.5% of the total. The prevalence of refractive astigmatism (cylinder ≤-1.50 D was 15.8% (0.6% of the total. Visual impairment (VI (0.05≤VA≤0.3 was found in 12/114 (0.4% of the refracted eyes. Main causes for VI were refractive error (58%, retinal problems (17%, 2/12, albinism (17%, 2/12 and unknown (8%, 1/12. CONCLUSION: A low prevalence of refractive error has been found in this rural area of Paraguay, with higher prevalence of myopia than of hyperopia.

  8. Facebook use predicts declines in subjective well-being in young adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ethan Kross

    Full Text Available Over 500 million people interact daily with Facebook. Yet, whether Facebook use influences subjective well-being over time is unknown. We addressed this issue using experience-sampling, the most reliable method for measuring in-vivo behavior and psychological experience. We text-messaged people five times per day for two-weeks to examine how Facebook use influences the two components of subjective well-being: how people feel moment-to-moment and how satisfied they are with their lives. Our results indicate that Facebook use predicts negative shifts on both of these variables over time. The more people used Facebook at one time point, the worse they felt the next time we text-messaged them; the more they used Facebook over two-weeks, the more their life satisfaction levels declined over time. Interacting with other people "directly" did not predict these negative outcomes. They were also not moderated by the size of people's Facebook networks, their perceived supportiveness, motivation for using Facebook, gender, loneliness, self-esteem, or depression. On the surface, Facebook provides an invaluable resource for fulfilling the basic human need for social connection. Rather than enhancing well-being, however, these findings suggest that Facebook may undermine it.

  9. Facebook use predicts declines in subjective well-being in young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kross, Ethan; Verduyn, Philippe; Demiralp, Emre; Park, Jiyoung; Lee, David Seungjae; Lin, Natalie; Shablack, Holly; Jonides, John; Ybarra, Oscar

    2013-01-01

    Over 500 million people interact daily with Facebook. Yet, whether Facebook use influences subjective well-being over time is unknown. We addressed this issue using experience-sampling, the most reliable method for measuring in-vivo behavior and psychological experience. We text-messaged people five times per day for two-weeks to examine how Facebook use influences the two components of subjective well-being: how people feel moment-to-moment and how satisfied they are with their lives. Our results indicate that Facebook use predicts negative shifts on both of these variables over time. The more people used Facebook at one time point, the worse they felt the next time we text-messaged them; the more they used Facebook over two-weeks, the more their life satisfaction levels declined over time. Interacting with other people "directly" did not predict these negative outcomes. They were also not moderated by the size of people's Facebook networks, their perceived supportiveness, motivation for using Facebook, gender, loneliness, self-esteem, or depression. On the surface, Facebook provides an invaluable resource for fulfilling the basic human need for social connection. Rather than enhancing well-being, however, these findings suggest that Facebook may undermine it.

  10. Facebook Use Predicts Declines in Subjective Well-Being in Young Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kross, Ethan; Verduyn, Philippe; Demiralp, Emre; Park, Jiyoung; Lee, David Seungjae; Lin, Natalie; Shablack, Holly; Jonides, John; Ybarra, Oscar

    2013-01-01

    Over 500 million people interact daily with Facebook. Yet, whether Facebook use influences subjective well-being over time is unknown. We addressed this issue using experience-sampling, the most reliable method for measuring in-vivo behavior and psychological experience. We text-messaged people five times per day for two-weeks to examine how Facebook use influences the two components of subjective well-being: how people feel moment-to-moment and how satisfied they are with their lives. Our results indicate that Facebook use predicts negative shifts on both of these variables over time. The more people used Facebook at one time point, the worse they felt the next time we text-messaged them; the more they used Facebook over two-weeks, the more their life satisfaction levels declined over time. Interacting with other people “directly” did not predict these negative outcomes. They were also not moderated by the size of people's Facebook networks, their perceived supportiveness, motivation for using Facebook, gender, loneliness, self-esteem, or depression. On the surface, Facebook provides an invaluable resource for fulfilling the basic human need for social connection. Rather than enhancing well-being, however, these findings suggest that Facebook may undermine it. PMID:23967061

  11. Cognitive Components Predict Virtual Reality-Induced Analgesia: Repeated Measures in Healthy Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naor Demeter

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Virtual reality (VR is an advanced and useful technology in the distraction from pain. The efficacy of VR for reducing pain is well established. Yet, the literature analyzing the unique attributes of VR which impact pain reduction is scarce. The present study evaluated the effect of two VR environments on experimental pain levels. Both VR environments are games used with an EyeToy application which is part of the video capture VR family. The VR environments were analyzed by expert occupational therapists using a method of activity analysis, allowing for a thorough evaluation of the VR activity performance requirements. The VR environments were found to differ in the cognitive load (CL demands they apply upon subjects. Sixty-two healthy students underwent psychophysical thermal pain tests, followed by exposure to tonic heat stimulation under one of three conditions: Low CL (LCL VR, high CL (HCL VR, and control. In addition, following participation in VR, the subjects completed a self-feedback inventory evaluating their experience in VR. The results showed significantly greater pain reduction during both VR conditions compared to the control condition (p = 0.001. Hierarchical regression revealed cognitive components which were evaluated in the self-feedback inventory to be predictive factors for pain reduction only during the high cognitive load (HCL VR environment (20.2%. CL involved in VR may predict the extent of pain decrease, a finding that should be considered in future clinical and laboratory research.

  12. Factors associated with diabetes mellitus prediction among pregnant Arab subjects with gestational diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aljohani, Naji; Al Serehi, Amal; Ahmed, Amjad M; Buhary, Badr Aldin M; Alzahrani, Saad; At-Taras, Eeman; Almujally, Najla; Alsharqi, Maha; Alqahtani, Mohammed; Almalki, Mussa

    2015-01-01

    There is scarcity of available information on the possible significant risk factors related to diabetes mellitus (DM) prediction among expectant Saudi mothers with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The present study is the first to identify such risk factors in the Arab cohort. A total of 300 pregnant subjects (mean age 33.45 ± 6.5 years) were randomly selected from all the deliveries registered at the Obstetrics Department of King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh Saudi Arabia from April 2011 to March 2013. Demographic and baseline glycemic information were collected. A total of 7 highly significant and independent risk factors were identified: age, obesity, and family history of DM, GDM < 20 weeks, macrosomia, insulin therapy and recurrent GDM. Among these factors, subjects who had insulin therapy use are 5 times more likely to develop DMT2 (p-value 3.94 × 10(-14)) followed by recurrent GDM [odds-ratio 4.69 (Confidence Interval 2.34-4.84); P = 1.24 × 10(-13)). The identification of the risk factors mentioned with their respective predictive powers in the detection of DMT2 needs to be taken seriously in the post-partum assessment of Saudi pregnant patients at highest risk.

  13. Spatial variability of soil potassium in sugarcane areas subjected to the application of vinasse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Carvalho, Laércio A; Meurer, Ismael; Da Silva Junior, Carlos A; Santos, Cristiane F B; Libardi, Paulo L

    2014-12-01

    When deposited on land the vinasse can promote improvement in fertility, however, often fertilizer application occurs in areas considered homogeneous, without taking into account the variability of the soil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of vinasse application on potassium content in two classes of soils cultivated with sugarcane, and characterize the spatial variability of soil using geostatistical techniques. In the 2010 and 2011 crop year, soil samples were collected from an experimental grid at 0-0.2 and 0.2-0.4 m depth in three soils cultivated with sugarcane, totaling 90 samplings in each grid, for the determination of pH, calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), potassium (K), phosphorus (P), aluminum (Al) and potential acidity (H + Al). The data have been submitted to analysis of descriptive statistics and the K attribute was subjected to geostatistical analysis. The coefficient of variation indicated medium and high variability of K for the three soils. The results showed that the spatial dependence of K increased in depth to FRce and decreased to PHlv, indicating that the attribute could have followed the pattern of distribution of clay in depth. The investigation of the spatial variability of K on the surface and subsurface soils provided the definition of management zones with different levels of fertility, which can be organized into sub-areas for a more efficient management of the resources and the environment.

  14. Spatial variability of soil potassium in sugarcane areas subjected to the application of vinasse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LAÉRCIO A. DE CARVALHO

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available When deposited on land the vinasse can promote improvement in fertility, however, often fertilizer application occurs in areas considered homogeneous, without taking into account the variability of the soil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of vinasse application on potassium content in two classes of soils cultivated with sugarcane, and characterize the spatial variability of soil using geostatistical techniques. In the 2010 and 2011 crop year, soil samples were collected from an experimental grid at 0-0.2 and 0.2-0.4 m depth in three soils cultivated with sugarcane, totaling 90 samplings in each grid, for the determination of pH, calcium (Ca, magnesium (Mg, potassium (K, phosphorus (P, aluminum (Al and potential acidity (H + Al. The data have been submitted to analysis of descriptive statistics and the K attribute was subjected to geostatistical analysis. The coefficient of variation indicated medium and high variability of K for the three soils. The results showed that the spatial dependence of K increased in depth to FRce and decreased to PHlv, indicating that the attribute could have followed the pattern of distribution of clay in depth. The investigation of the spatial variability of K on the surface and subsurface soils provided the definition of management zones with different levels of fertility, which can be organized into sub-areas for a more efficient management of the resources and the environment.

  15. Can subject-specific single-fibre electrically evoked auditory brainstem response data be predicted from a model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malherbe, Tiaan K; Hanekom, Tania; Hanekom, Johan J

    2013-07-01

    This article investigates whether prediction of subject-specific physiological data is viable through an individualised computational model of a cochlear implant. Subject-specific predictions could be particularly useful to assess and quantify the peripheral factors that cause inter-subject variations in perception. The results of such model predictions could potentially be translated to clinical application through optimisation of mapping parameters for individual users, since parameters that affect perception would be reflected in the model structure and parameters. A method to create a subject-specific computational model of a guinea pig with a cochlear implant is presented. The objectives of the study are to develop a method to construct subject-specific models considering translation of the method to in vivo human models and to assess the effectiveness of subject-specific models to predict peripheral neural excitation on subject level. Neural excitation patterns predicted by the model are compared with single-fibre electrically evoked auditory brainstem responses obtained from the inferior colliculus in the same animal. Results indicate that the model can predict threshold frequency location, spatial spread of bipolar and tripolar stimulation and electrode thresholds relative to one another where electrodes are located in different cochlear structures. Absolute thresholds and spatial spread using monopolar stimulation are not predicted accurately. Improvements to the model should address this. Copyright © 2012 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Musical emotions: predicting second-by-second subjective feelings of emotion from low-level psychoacoustic features and physiological measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coutinho, Eduardo; Cangelosi, Angelo

    2011-08-01

    We sustain that the structure of affect elicited by music is largely dependent on dynamic temporal patterns in low-level music structural parameters. In support of this claim, we have previously provided evidence that spatiotemporal dynamics in psychoacoustic features resonate with two psychological dimensions of affect underlying judgments of subjective feelings: arousal and valence. In this article we extend our previous investigations in two aspects. First, we focus on the emotions experienced rather than perceived while listening to music. Second, we evaluate the extent to which peripheral feedback in music can account for the predicted emotional responses, that is, the role of physiological arousal in determining the intensity and valence of musical emotions. Akin to our previous findings, we will show that a significant part of the listeners' reported emotions can be predicted from a set of six psychoacoustic features--loudness, pitch level, pitch contour, tempo, texture, and sharpness. Furthermore, the accuracy of those predictions is improved with the inclusion of physiological cues--skin conductance and heart rate. The interdisciplinary work presented here provides a new methodology to the field of music and emotion research based on the combination of computational and experimental work, which aid the analysis of the emotional responses to music, while offering a platform for the abstract representation of those complex relationships. Future developments may aid specific areas, such as, psychology and music therapy, by providing coherent descriptions of the emotional effects of specific music stimuli. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

  17. Striatal μ-opioid receptor availability predicts cold pressor pain threshold in healthy human subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagelberg, Nora; Aalto, Sargo; Tuominen, Lauri

    2012-01-01

    Previous PET studies in healthy humans have shown that brain μ-opioid receptor activation during experimental pain is associated with reductions in the sensory and affective ratings of the individual pain experience. The aim of this study was to find out whether brain μ-opioid receptor binding...... at the resting state, in absence of painful stimulation, can be a long-term predictor of experimental pain sensitivity. We measured μ-opioid receptor binding potential (BP(ND)) with μ-opioid receptor selective radiotracer [(11)C]carfentanil and positron emission tomography (PET) in 12 healthy male subjects...... the potential associations between μ-opioid receptor BP(ND) and psychophysical measures. The results show that striatal μ-opioid receptor BP(ND) predicts cold pressor pain threshold, but not cold pressor pain tolerance or tactile sensitivity. This finding suggests that striatal μ-opioid receptor density...

  18. DOMAIN-DRIVEN DESIGN APPLICATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR CLIENTS QUEUING SUBJECT AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. P. Oleynik

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with domain-driven design applicability of information systems for client queuing subject areas. The following optimality criteria were put forward for the final implementation: the possibility of automation with a single system both for small institution and a whole network of institutions; advanced graphical interface with support for sensor screens; implementation of multi-users account of orders from clients; flexible application architecture with the ability of future enhancement; ability of integration with a variety of peripherals. The necessity of each criterion definition is shown. For implementability estimation, test information system was designed, automating the queuing system. Unified modeling language UML is used. Description of each class functionality is given and the association with other classes as well. Attention is paid to the design of tree (hierarchical structures and selection procedure of base classes based on the analysis of existing common attributes. For the system implementation, its own development environment SharpArchitect RAD Studio is used, offering MDA approach for implementation of systems based on standardized meta object system. A graphical view of order form developed prototype is presented, composition and structure are described, and notation developed by the author is given simplifying the prototyping process. Approaches to differentiation of access rights for different user roles are shown. Conformity of the received implementation to each selected optimality criterion is determined. Recommendations for further system development are given.

  19. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Retroactive forecasts are produced for lead times of up to 5 months and probabilistic forecast performances evaluated for extreme rainfall thresholds of the 25th and 75th percentile values of the climatological record. The verification of the retroactive forecasts shows that rainfall over the catchment is predictable at extended ...

  20. Predicting the number and area of thunderstorms over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Colin; Harel, Maayan

    2017-04-01

    One of the difficulties in predicting changes in future thunderstorm activity in a warmer climate is first knowing the climate parameters (in models), in the present climate, that are best related to thunderstorm activity. In addition, climate models supply only large scale parameters for use in their simulations, with no cloud microphysical details. Hence, any parameterization needs to use the available output of the climate model. Considering these limitations, we have used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product to investigate the large-scale parameters that are best related to thunderstorm activity over Africa. For the thunderstorm observations we use the WWLLN lightning detections, clustered into thunderstorm cells according to Mezuman et al. (2014). Comparisons between these thunderstorm clusters and the NCEP climate parameters revealed two significant large-scale parameters that predict thunderstorm activity over Africa: surface specific humidity (g/kg) and the LI lifted index (K). Using these two parameters we built an empirical model to predict both number and areal coverage of thunderstorms over Africa in any given month. This empirical model predicts the thunderstorm distribution of Africa with considerable skill. The next step will be to use this parameterization in climate models to study the changes in thunderstorm characteristics in a warmer climate. Mezuman, K., C. Price and E. Galanti, 2014: On the spatial and temporal distribution of thunderstorm cells, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124023.

  1. Predicting the Reliability of Brittle Material Structures Subjected to Transient Proof Test and Service Loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

    Brittle materials today are being used, or considered, for a wide variety of high tech applications that operate in harsh environments, including static and rotating turbine parts, thermal protection systems, dental prosthetics, fuel cells, oxygen transport membranes, radomes, and MEMS. Designing brittle material components to sustain repeated load without fracturing while using the minimum amount of material requires the use of a probabilistic design methodology. The NASA CARES/Life 1 (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structure/Life) code provides a general-purpose analysis tool that predicts the probability of failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. This capability includes predicting the time-dependent failure probability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The developed methodology allows for changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e. changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). For this article an overview of the transient reliability methodology and how this methodology is extended to account for proof testing is described. The CARES/Life code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

  2. Subjective global assessment: a reliable nutritional assessment tool to predict outcomes in critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontes, Daniel; Generoso, Simone de Vasconcelos; Toulson Davisson Correia, Maria Isabel

    2014-04-01

    Nutritional assessment of critically ill patients has created controversy. However, it is well established that malnourished patients who are severely ill have worse outcomes than well-nourished patients. Therefore, assessing patients' nutritional status may be useful in predicting which patients may experience increased morbidity and mortality. One hundred eighty-five consecutively admitted patients were followed until discharge or death, and their nutritional status was evaluated using Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) as well as anthropometric and laboratory methods. Agreement between the methods was measured using the Kappa coefficient. Malnutrition was highly prevalent (54%), according to SGA. Malnourished patients had significantly higher rates of readmission to the intensive care unit (ICU) (OR 2.27; CI 1.08-4.80) and mortality (OR 8.12; CI 2.94-22.42). The comparison of SGA with other tests used to assess nutritional status showed that the correlation between the methods ranged from poor to superficial. SGA, an inexpensive and quick nutritional assessment method conducted at the bedside, is a reliable tool for predicting outcomes in critically ill patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  3. Discrimination ability of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to predict mortality in community-dwelling older people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kusumastuti, Sasmita; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lund, Rikke

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions in community-dwelling older people and whether it changes with increasing age. PARTICIPANTS: 36,751 community-dwelling subjects aged 50-100 from the longitudinal Survey of Health, Age...

  4. Prediction of a delamination area during drilling of carbon composite ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The ability to non-destructively monitor and evaluate the delamination damage during a drilling operation is of interest to the scientific and the industrial community. This paper discusses the development of an empirical model that relates the feed rate to the delamination-crack area in order to enable the user determine the ...

  5. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-10-24

    Oct 24, 2013 ... 1Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa. 2Council for ... ABSTRACT. The Lake Kariba catchment area in southern Africa has one of the most variable climates of any major river basin, with ...... and a Southern Hemisphere semi-annual cycle.

  6. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The Lake Kariba catchment area in southern Africa has one of the most variable climates of any major river basin, with an extreme range of conditions across the catchment and through time. Marked seasonal and interannual fluctuations in rainfall...

  7. Predictive Value of Kushida Index and Acoustic Pharyngometry for the Evaluation of Upper Airway in Subjects With or Without Obstructive Sleep Apnea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Hae Young; Grunstein, Ronald R; Yee, Brendon

    2004-01-01

    Acoustic pharyngometry is a relatively new noninvasive method that quantifies geometrically complexed pharyngeal dimensions. Our study aimed to investigate the predictability and usefulness of acoustic pharyngometry in diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), and we developed a prospective clinical trial in 16 subjects without apnea and 54 subjects with apnea. All seventy subjects received polysomnography (PSG) to assess the sleep architecture, including breathing and the degree of apnea hypopnea index. Acoustic pharyngometry was performed in four body positions (sitting, supine, right and left lateral) while awake with tidal breathing in addition to morphometric measurements (Kushida index) of oral cavity. This study shows that the cross-sectional area and volume of the upper airway is smaller in the supine position than any other positions. As well, the oropharyngeal junction area of the supine position is the most predictive parameter to discriminate between subjects with or without OSA. Acoustic pharyngometry can be a clinically useful tool for localizing the narrowed portion of the upper airway and predicting obstructive sleep apnea. PMID:15483340

  8. What factors predict individual subjects' re-learning of words during anomia treatment?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Hayward

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A growing number of studies are addressing methodological approaches to treating anomia in persons with aphasia. What is missing from these studies are validated procedures for determining which words have the greatest potential for recovery. The current study evaluates the usefulness of several word-specific variables and one subject-specific measure in predicting success in re-learning problematic words. Methods: Two participants, YPR and ODH, presented with fluent aphasia and marked anomia. YPR’s Aphasia Quotient on the Western Aphasia Battery was 58.8; ODH’s AQ was 79.5. Stimuli were 96 pictures chosen individually for each participant from among those that they named incorrectly on multiple baselines. Subsequently, participants were presented with each picture and asked to indicate whether they could name it covertly, or “in their head.” Each subject completed a biweekly anomia treatment for these pictures. We performed separate statistical analyses for each subject. Dependent variables included whether each word was learned during treatment (Acquisition and the number of sessions required to learn each word (#Sessions. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the association of (self-reported covert naming success with Acquisition, and linear regression models to assess the relationship between (self-reported covert naming success and #Sessions. Starting with the predictors of covert naming accuracy, number of syllables (#syllables, number of phonemes (#phonemes, and frequency, we used backwards elimination methods to select the final regression models. Results: By the end of 25 treatment sessions, YPR had learned 90.2% (37/41 of the covertly correct words but only 70.4% (38/54 of the covertly incorrect words. In the unadjusted analysis, covert naming was significantly associated with Acquisition, OR=3.89, 95% CI: (1.19, 12.74, p=0.025. The result remained significant after adjustment for #phonemes (the only other predictor

  9. Cesium residue leachate migration in the tailings management area of a mine site : predicted vs. actual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solylo, P.; Ramsey, D. [Wardrop Engineering, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Mining and Minerals Section

    2009-07-01

    This paper reported on a study at a cesium products facility (CPF) that manufactures a non-toxic cesium-formate drilling fluid. The facility operates adjacent to a pollucite/tantalum/spodumene mine. The CPF was developed as a closed system, with the residue tailings slurry from the CPF process discharged to doublelined containment cells. Groundwater monitoring has shown that leachate has affected near-surface porewater quality within the tailings management area (TMA). Elevated concentrations of calcium, sulphate, strontium, cesium, and rubidium were used to identify the leachate. Porewater at the base of the tailings and in the overburden beneath the tailings has not been affected. A geochemical investigation was initiated to determine how the leachate behaves in the groundwater/tailings porewater system. Over the past 7 years of residue placement in the TMA, the footprint of the residue placement area has changed, making the comparison of predicted versus actual rate of leachate migration very subjective and difficult to quantify. Based solely on the analytical data, the source of the leachate is unknown, either from the original residue pile or the 2007 residue placement area. For purposes of long term residue management, an investigation of the geochemical behaviour of residue leachate in the groundwater/tailings system of the TMA is currently underway. 5 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs.

  10. SAT predicts GPA better for high ability subjects: Implications for Spearman’s Law of Diminishing Returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, Thomas; Snyder, Anissa; Pillow, David; Kochunov, Peter

    2011-01-01

    This research examined the predictive validity of the SAT (formerly, the Scholastic Aptitude Test) for high and low ability groups. SAT scores and college GPAs were obtained from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Subjects were classified as high or low ability by g factor scores from the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery. SAT correlations with GPA were higher for high than low ability subjects. SAT g loadings (i.e., SAT correlations with g) were equivalent for both groups. This is the first study to show that the predictive validity of the SAT varies for ability groups that differ in g. The results contradict a presumption, based on Spearman’s Law of Diminishing Returns, that a test’s predictive validity should be lower for high ability subjects. Further research is needed to identify factors that contribute to the predictive validity of the SAT for groups that differ in g. PMID:21562615

  11. Predictive value of "Marsh 1" type histology in subjects with suspected cealic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tortora, Raffaella; Capone, Pietro; Imperatore, Nicola; De Stefano, Giuliano; Gerbino, Nicolò; Leo, Maria; Caporaso, Nicola; Rispo, Antonio

    2014-07-01

    The diagnosis of celiac disease (CD) is based on histology in combination with anti-tissue transglutaminase (a-tTG) and anti-endomysial antibodies (EMAs). The increase of intraepithelial lymphocytes defines the Marsh 1 histology that appears not to be specific for CD. To explore the positive predictive value (PPV) and clinical relevance of Marsh 1 histology in suspected CD. We carried out an observational prospective study including all consecutive subjects with a Marsh 1 histology. All patients were tested for a-tTG and EMAs. Diagnosis of potential CD was defined in the presence of Marsh 1 with positive a-tTG and EMAs. Patients were investigated for symptoms, CD familial aggregation, other diseases, and current medication. Sixty-three patients with Marsh 1 were included. Diagnosis of potential CD was made in 23 subjects (36%), so that Marsh 1 histology showed a PPV of 36%. With regard to familial aggregation, patients with potential CD showed a higher frequency of familiarity for CD (60.8% vs. 15.0%; p < 0.01). No significant difference was detected between CD and non-CD in terms of intestinal and extra-intestinal symptoms. We also documented the presence of conditions other than CD in the remaining population: 7 patients (17.5%) with immuno-mediated diseases while 5 patients (12.5%) showed Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection. About medication, 3 patients (7.5%) were on non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, while another 4 (10%) patients were being treated with other drugs. The Marsh 1 type histology is not specific for CD and it can also be associated with immuno-mediated disorders, HP infection, and drugs.

  12. Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; James A. Westfall

    2014-01-01

    Forest inventory estimates of tree volume for large areas are typically calculated by adding model predictions of volumes for individual trees. However, the uncertainty in the model predictions is generally ignored with the result that the precision of the large area volume estimates is overestimated. The primary study objective was to estimate the effects of model...

  13. Predictive Utility of Marketed Volumetric Software Tools in Subjects at Risk for Alzheimer Disease: Do Regions Outside the Hippocampus Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanpitukpongse, T P; Mazurowski, M A; Ikhena, J; Petrella, J R

    2017-03-01

    Alzheimer disease is a prevalent neurodegenerative disease. Computer assessment of brain atrophy patterns can help predict conversion to Alzheimer disease. Our aim was to assess the prognostic efficacy of individual-versus-combined regional volumetrics in 2 commercially available brain volumetric software packages for predicting conversion of patients with mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease. Data were obtained through the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. One hundred ninety-two subjects (mean age, 74.8 years; 39% female) diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment at baseline were studied. All had T1-weighted MR imaging sequences at baseline and 3-year clinical follow-up. Analysis was performed with NeuroQuant and Neuroreader. Receiver operating characteristic curves assessing the prognostic efficacy of each software package were generated by using a univariable approach using individual regional brain volumes and 2 multivariable approaches (multiple regression and random forest), combining multiple volumes. On univariable analysis of 11 NeuroQuant and 11 Neuroreader regional volumes, hippocampal volume had the highest area under the curve for both software packages (0.69, NeuroQuant; 0.68, Neuroreader) and was not significantly different ( P > .05) between packages. Multivariable analysis did not increase the area under the curve for either package (0.63, logistic regression; 0.60, random forest NeuroQuant; 0.65, logistic regression; 0.62, random forest Neuroreader). Of the multiple regional volume measures available in FDA-cleared brain volumetric software packages, hippocampal volume remains the best single predictor of conversion of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease at 3-year follow-up. Combining volumetrics did not add additional prognostic efficacy. Therefore, future prognostic studies in mild cognitive impairment, combining such tools with demographic and other biomarker measures, are justified in using hippocampal volume as

  14. Conductive sapwood area prediction from stem and canopy areas - allometric equations of Kalahari trees, Botswana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lubczynski, M.W.; Chavarro-Rincon, D.C.; Rossiter, David

    2017-01-01

    Conductive sapwood (xylem) area (Ax) of all trees in a given forested area is the main factor contributing to spatial tree transpiration. One hundred ninety-five trees of 9 species in the Kalahari region of Botswana were felled, stained, cut into discs, and measured to develop allometric equations

  15. Intra-Rater Reliability of Rehabilitative Ultrasound Imaging for Multifidus Muscles Thickness and Cross Section Area in Healthy Subjects

    OpenAIRE

    Hosseinifar, Mohammad; Akbari, Asghar; Ghiasi, Fateme

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Rehabilitative Ultrasound Imaging (RUSI) must be valuable method for research and rehabilitation. So, the reliability of its measurements must be determined. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the intra-rater reliability of RUSI for measurement of multifidus (MF) muscles cross section areas (CSAs), bladder wall diameter, and thickness of MF muscles between 2 sessions in healthy subjects. Method: Fifteen healthy subjects through simple non-probability sampling participated...

  16. Predicting annual average particulate concentration in urban areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Progiou, Athena G; Ziomas, Ioannis C

    2015-11-01

    Particulate matter concentrations are in most cities a major environmental problem. This is also the case in Greece where, despite the various measures taken in the past, the problem still persists. In this aspect, a cost efficient, comprehensive method was developed in order to help decision makers to take the most appropriate measures towards particulates pollution abatement. The method is based on the source apportionment estimation from the application of 3D meteorological and dispersion modeling and is validated with the use of 10 years (2002-2012) PM10 monitoring data, in Athens, Greece, as well as using PM10 emission data for the same area and time period. It appears that the methodology can be used for estimating yearly average PM10 concentrations in a quite realistic manner, giving thus the decision makers the possibility to evaluate ex ante the effectiveness of specific abatement measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Walking ability after stroke in patients from Argentina: predictive values of two tests in subjects with subacute hemiplegia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatti, Marcelo Andrés; Portela, Manuel; Gianella, Matias; Freixes, Orestes; Fernández, Sergio Anibal; Rivas, Maria Elisa; Tanga, Cristobal Osvaldo; Olmos, Lisandro Emilio; Rubel, Ivan Federico

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to determine the predictive values of the trunk control test (TCT) and functional ambulation category (FAC) for independent walking up to 6 months post stroke. [Subjects] Twenty-seven subjects with hemiplegia secondary to a unilateral hemisphere stroke were included. [Methods] The protocol was started at 45 days post stroke, with the TCT and FAC as walking predictors. At 90, 120, and 180 days post stroke, the subjects’ independent walking ability was assessed by using the Wald test. [Results] The TCT was identified as an independent predictor of ambulation at 90, 120, and 180 days. Subjects who scored ≥ 49 in the initial test had 93.8% probability of achieving independent gait at 6 months. The FAC proved that 100% of the subjects who scored 2 at 45 days post stroke walked independently at 90 days, 100% of the subjects who scored 1 walked independently at 120 days, and only 33.3% of the subjects who scored 0 walked independently at 180 days. [Conclusion] The TCT and FAC can predict independent walking at 45 days post stroke. In subjects with FAC 0, the TCT should be used to predict patients who will be able to walk independently. PMID:26504338

  18. Cervical gland area as an ultrasound marker for prediction of preterm delivery: A cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vajiheh Marsoosi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Preterm labor is a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality and it might be predicted by assessing the cervical change. Objective: To assess the association between absence of cervical gland area (CGA and spontaneous preterm labor (SPTL. Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study was performed on 200 singleton pregnant women with a history of SPTL, second-trimester abortion in the previous pregnancy or lower abdominal pain in current pregnancy. Each patient underwent one transvaginal ultrasound examination between 14-28 wk of gestation. Cervical length was measured and CGA was identified and their relationship with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation was evaluated using STATA software version 10. Results: The mean of cervical length was 36.5 mm (SD=8.4, the shortest measurement was 9 mm, and the longest one was 61 mm. Short cervical length (≤18mm was significantly associated with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation. Cervical gland area (the hypoechogenic or echogenic area around the cervical canal was present in 189 (94.5% patients. Absent of CGA had a significant relationship with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation (p=0.01 and p<0.001, respectively. Cervical length was shorter in women with absent CGA in comparison with subjects with present CGA: 37±10 mm in CGA present group and 23±9 mm in CGA absent group (p<0.001. Conclusion: Our study showed that cervical gland area might be an important predictor of SPTL which should be confirmed with further researches.

  19. Discrimination ability of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to predict mortality in community-dwelling older people: Population based prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusumastuti, Sasmita; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lund, Rikke; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Westendorp, Rudi G J

    2017-07-01

    To investigate the added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions in community-dwelling older people and whether it changes with increasing age. 36,751 community-dwelling subjects aged 50-100 from the longitudinal Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. Mortality risk associated with Comorbidity Index, Frailty Index, Frailty Phenotype, and subjective health was analysed using Cox regression. The extent to which health indicators modified individual mortality risk predictions was examined and the added ability to discriminate mortality risks was assessed. Three-year mortality risks, hazard ratios, change in individual mortality risks, three-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Three-year mortality risks increased 41-folds within an age span of 50years. Hazard ratios per change in health indicator became less significant with increasing age (p-value<0·001). AUC for three-year mortality prediction based on age and sex was 76·9% (95% CI 75·5% to 78·3%). Information on health indicators modified individual three-year mortality risk predictions up to 30%, both upwards and downwards, each adding <2% discriminative power. The added discrimination ability of all health indicators gradually declined from an extra 4% at age 50-59 to <1% in the oldest old. Trends were similar for one-year mortality and not different between sexes, levels of education, and household income. Calendar age encompasses most of the discrimination ability to predict mortality. The added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions decreases with increasing age. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Predictive behaviors for anxiety and depression in female Wistar rats subjected to cafeteria diet and stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Costa Estrela, Dieferson; da Silva, Wellington Alves Mizael; Guimarães, Abraão Tiago Batista; de Oliveira Mendes, Bruna; da Silva Castro, André Luis; da Silva Torres, Iraci Lucena; Malafaia, Guilherme

    2015-11-01

    Obesity and chronic stress have been considered important public health problems that affect millions of people worldwide. Our aim was to analyze the effect of obesity associated with chronic stress on neurobehavioral parameters in female rats, considering that the association of these syndromes can enhance the negative effects on homeostasis. The animals were distributed into standard diet (Std), standard diet+stress (Std+stress), cafeteria diet (Cafe), and cafeteria diet+stress (Cafe+stress) groups. The animals of groups Std and Std+stress were fed with rodent standard feed. Groups Cafe and Cafe+stress, additionally to the standard feed, were offered palatable and calorie-rich processed food and cola-type soft drink ad libitum. From the eighth experimental week, groups Std+stress and Cafe+stress were subjected to restraint chronic stress model (50 days). After the stress protocol, predictive anxiety (open-field and elevated plus-maze tests) and depression (forced swim) were applied. The cafeteria diet was effective in inducing obesity. The ratio locomotion in the central quadrants/total locomotion evaluated during the open field test was not indicative of anxiogenic or anxiolytic effect in the animal's behavior. However, the elevated plus maze test showed that obese and stressed animals were prone to higher anxiety levels. In addition, the obese and stressed animals display less climbing behavior than all the other groups, which can be considered an indicator of depression-like behavior. Nevertheless, it is suggested that the mechanisms involved in effects of obesity associated with chronic stress be better investigated in female rats, considering the organic complexity related to these modern illnesses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Predictive Factors for Subjective Improvement in Lumbar Spinal Stenosis Patients with Nonsurgical Treatment: A 3-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Matsudaira

    Full Text Available To assess the predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment in consecutive patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS.Patients with LSS were enrolled from 17 medical centres in Japan. We followed up 274 patients (151 men; mean age, 71 ± 7.4 years for 3 years. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess the predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment.In 30% of patients, conservative treatment led to a subjective improvement in the symptoms; in 70% of patients, the symptoms remained unchanged, worsened, or required surgical treatment. The multivariable analysis of predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment showed that the absence of cauda equina symptoms (only radicular symptoms had an odds ratio (OR of 3.31 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-7.31; absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis had an OR of 2.53 (95% CI: 1.13-5.65; <1-year duration of illness had an OR of 3.81 (95% CI: 1.46-9.98; and hypertension had an OR of 2.09 (95% CI: 0.92-4.78.The predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment in LSS patients were the presence of only radicular symptoms, absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis, and an illness duration of <1 year.

  2. Economics of Scholarly Publishing: Exploring the Causes of Subscription Price Variations of Scholarly Journals in Business Subject-Specific Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lewis G.

    2011-01-01

    This empirical research investigates subscription price variations of scholarly journals in five business subject-specific areas using the semilogarithmic regression model. It has two main purposes. The first is to address the unsettled debate over whether or not and to what extent commercial publishers reap monopoly profits by overcharging…

  3. Performance Gaps between Online and Face-to-Face Courses: Differences across Types of Students and Academic Subject Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Di; Jaggars, Shanna S.

    2014-01-01

    Using a dataset containing nearly 500,000 courses taken by over 40,000 community and technical college students in Washington State, this study examines the performance gap between online and face-to-face courses and how the size of that gap differs across student subgroups and academic subject areas. While all types of students in the study…

  4. Problem Solving and Creativity and Design: What Influence Do They Have on Girls' Interest in STEM Subject Areas?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Robyn; Heaverlo, Carol

    2013-01-01

    For girls there is a distinct loss in interest, lack of confidence, and decline in positive attitudes toward STEM subject areas that begins early on in their academic experience and increases with age. According to the National Academy of Engineering, students need to begin associating the possibilities in STEM fields with the need for creativity…

  5. Reproducibility and repeatability of foveal avascular zone area measurements using swept-source optical coherence tomography angiography in healthy subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastropasqua, Rodolfo; Toto, Lisa; Mattei, Peter A; Di Nicola, Marta; Zecca, Isaia A L; Carpineto, Paolo; Di Antonio, Luca

    2017-05-11

    To assess the reproducibility and repeatability of foveal avascular zone (FAZ) area measurements using swept-source optical coherence tomography angiography (SS-OCTA) in healthy subjects. Sixty-four eyes of 64 healthy volunteers were randomly subjected to FAZ area measurements using SS-OCTA by 2 examiners in 2 different sessions. The FAZ areas measured by the first and second observer were 0.269 ± 0.092 mm2 and 0.270 ± 0.090 mm2, respectively. Within subjects, the coefficients of variations were 2.44% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.95% to 2.93%) and 2.66% (95% CI 2.00% to 3.31%) for the first and second observers, respectively. The coefficient of repeatability average measurements of FAZ area were 0.021 mm2 and 0.024 mm2. The intraclass correlation coefficient values were 0.993 (95% CI 0.989 to 0.996) and 0.991 (95% CI 0.986 to 0.995). Interobserver and intraobserver concordance correlation coefficients ranged from 0.998 (95% CI 0.997 to 0.999) to 0.999 (95% CI 0.998 to 0.999) and from 0.989 (95% CI 0.982 to 0.993) to 0.987 (95% CI 0.979 to 0.992), respectively. The FAZ area measurements by means of SS-OCTA showed high reproducibility and repeatability in healthy eyes.

  6. Condylar volume and condylar area in class I, class II and class III young adult subjects

    OpenAIRE

    Saccucci Matteo; D’Attilio Michele; Rodolfino Daria; Festa Felice; Polimeni Antonella; Tecco Simona

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Aim Aim of this study was to compare the volume and the shape of mandibular condyles in a Caucasian young adult population, with different skeletal pattern. Material and methods 200 Caucasian patients (15–30 years old, 95 male and 105 females) were classified in three groups on the base of ANB angle: skeletal class I (65 patients), skeletal class II (70 patients) and skeletal class III (65 patients). Left and right TMJs of each subject were evaluated independently with CBCT (Iluma). ...

  7. MEG reveals a fast pathway from somatosensory cortex to occipital areas via posterior parietal cortex in a blind subject

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas A Ioannides

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Cross-modal activity in visual cortex of blind subjects has been reported during performance of variety of non-visual tasks. A key unanswered question is through which pathways non-visual inputs are funneled to the visual cortex. Here we used tomographic analysis of single trial magnetoencephalography (MEG data recorded from one congenitally blind and two sighted subjects after stimulation of the left and right median nerves at three intensities: below sensory threshold, above sensory threshold and above motor threshold; the last sufficient to produce thumb twitching. We identified reproducible brain responses in the primary somatosensory (S1 and motor (M1 cortices at around 20 ms post-stimulus, which were very similar in sighted and blind subjects. Time-frequency analysis revealed strong 45 to 70 Hz activity at latencies of 20 to 50 ms in S1 and M1, and posterior parietal cortex Brodmann areas (BA 7 and 40, which compared to lower frequencies, were substantially more pronounced in the blind than the sighted subjects. Critically, at frequencies from α-band up to 100 Hz we found clear, strong and widespread responses in the visual cortex of the blind subject, which increased with the intensity of the somatosensory stimuli. Time-delayed mutual information (MI revealed that in blind subject the stimulus information is funneled from the early somatosensory to visual cortex through posterior parietal BA 7 and 40, projecting first to visual areas V5 and V3, and eventually V1. The flow of information through this pathway occured in stages characterized by convergence of activations into specific cortical regions. In sighted subjects, no linked activity was found that led from the somatosensory to the visual cortex through any of the studied brain regions. These results provide the first evidence from MEG that in blind subjects, tactile information is routed from primary somatosensory to occipital cortex via the posterior parietal cortex.

  8. MEG reveals a fast pathway from somatosensory cortex to occipital areas via posterior parietal cortex in a blind subject.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioannides, Andreas A; Liu, Lichan; Poghosyan, Vahe; Saridis, George A; Gjedde, Albert; Ptito, Maurice; Kupers, Ron

    2013-01-01

    Cross-modal activity in visual cortex of blind subjects has been reported during performance of variety of non-visual tasks. A key unanswered question is through which pathways non-visual inputs are funneled to the visual cortex. Here we used tomographic analysis of single trial magnetoencephalography (MEG) data recorded from one congenitally blind and two sighted subjects after stimulation of the left and right median nerves at three intensities: below sensory threshold, above sensory threshold and above motor threshold; the last sufficient to produce thumb twitching. We identified reproducible brain responses in the primary somatosensory (S1) and motor (M1) cortices at around 20 ms post-stimulus, which were very similar in sighted and blind subjects. Time-frequency analysis revealed strong 45-70 Hz activity at latencies of 20-50 ms in S1 and M1, and posterior parietal cortex Brodmann areas (BA) 7 and 40, which compared to lower frequencies, were substantially more pronounced in the blind than the sighted subjects. Critically, at frequencies from α-band up to 100 Hz we found clear, strong, and widespread responses in the visual cortex of the blind subject, which increased with the intensity of the somatosensory stimuli. Time-delayed mutual information (MI) revealed that in blind subject the stimulus information is funneled from the early somatosensory to visual cortex through posterior parietal BA 7 and 40, projecting first to visual areas V5 and V3, and eventually V1. The flow of information through this pathway occurred in stages characterized by convergence of activations into specific cortical regions. In sighted subjects, no linked activity was found that led from the somatosensory to the visual cortex through any of the studied brain regions. These results provide the first evidence from MEG that in blind subjects, tactile information is routed from primary somatosensory to occipital cortex via the posterior parietal cortex.

  9. Cross-Modal Recruitment of Auditory and Orofacial Areas During Sign Language in a Deaf Subject.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Juan; Velasquez, Carlos; Vázquez-Bourgon, Javier; de Lucas, Enrique Marco; Gomez, Elsa

    2017-09-01

    Modern sign languages used by deaf people are fully expressive, natural human languages that are perceived visually and produced manually. The literature contains little data concerning human brain organization in conditions of deficient sensory information such as deafness. A deaf-mute patient underwent surgery of a left temporoinsular low-grade glioma. The patient underwent awake surgery with intraoperative electrical stimulation mapping, allowing direct study of the cortical and subcortical organization of sign language. We found a similar distribution of language sites to what has been reported in mapping studies of patients with oral language, including 1) speech perception areas inducing anomias and alexias close to the auditory cortex (at the posterior portion of the superior temporal gyrus and supramarginal gyrus); 2) speech production areas inducing speech arrest (anarthria) at the ventral premotor cortex, close to the lip motor area and away from the hand motor area; and 3) subcortical stimulation-induced semantic paraphasias at the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus at the temporal isthmus. The intraoperative setup for sign language mapping with intraoperative electrical stimulation in deaf-mute patients is similar to the setup described in patients with oral language. To elucidate the type of language errors, a sign language interpreter in close interaction with the neuropsychologist is necessary. Sign language is perceived visually and produced manually; however, this case revealed a cross-modal recruitment of auditory and orofacial motor areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. NOAA ESRI Shapefile - sediment composition class predictions in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment composition class predictions from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The...

  11. NOAA ESRI Grid - sediment size predictions model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size predictions from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  12. NOAA ESRI Grid - depth predictions bathymetry model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents depth predictions from a bathymetric model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  13. Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F.; Royle, Andy; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-01-01

    Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied

  14. Spontaneous fluctuations in sensory processing predict within-subject reaction time variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria José Ribeiro

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available When engaged in a repetitive task our performance fluctuates from trial-to-trial. In particular, inter-trial reaction time variability has been the subject of considerable research. It has been claimed to be a strong biomarker of attention deficits, increases with frontal dysfunction, and predicts age-related cognitive decline. Thus, rather than being just a consequence of noise in the system, it appears to be under the control of a mechanism that breaks down under certain pathological conditions. Although the underlying mechanism is still an open question, consensual hypotheses are emerging regarding the neural correlates of reaction time inter-trial intra-individual variability. Sensory processing, in particular, has been shown to covary with reaction time, yet the spatio-temporal profile of the moment-to-moment variability in sensory processing is still poorly characterized. The goal of this study was to characterize the intra-individual variability in the time course of single-trial visual evoked potentials and its relationship with inter-trial reaction time variability. For this, we chose to take advantage of the high temporal resolution of the electroencephalogram (EEG acquired while participants were engaged in a 2-choice reaction time task. We studied the link between single trial event-related potentials (ERPs and reaction time using two different analyses: 1 time point by time point correlation analyses thereby identifying time windows of interest, and 2 correlation analyses between single trial measures of peak latency and amplitude and reaction time. To improve extraction of single trial ERP measures related with activation of the visual cortex, we used an independent component analysis procedure.Our ERP analysis revealed a relationship between the N1 visual evoked potential and reaction time. The earliest time point presenting a significant correlation of its respective amplitude with reaction time occurred 175 ms after stimulus

  15. Spontaneous Fluctuations in Sensory Processing Predict Within-Subject Reaction Time Variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Maria J; Paiva, Joana S; Castelo-Branco, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    When engaged in a repetitive task our performance fluctuates from trial-to-trial. In particular, inter-trial reaction time variability has been the subject of considerable research. It has been claimed to be a strong biomarker of attention deficits, increases with frontal dysfunction, and predicts age-related cognitive decline. Thus, rather than being just a consequence of noise in the system, it appears to be under the control of a mechanism that breaks down under certain pathological conditions. Although the underlying mechanism is still an open question, consensual hypotheses are emerging regarding the neural correlates of reaction time inter-trial intra-individual variability. Sensory processing, in particular, has been shown to covary with reaction time, yet the spatio-temporal profile of the moment-to-moment variability in sensory processing is still poorly characterized. The goal of this study was to characterize the intra-individual variability in the time course of single-trial visual evoked potentials and its relationship with inter-trial reaction time variability. For this, we chose to take advantage of the high temporal resolution of the electroencephalogram (EEG) acquired while participants were engaged in a 2-choice reaction time task. We studied the link between single trial event-related potentials (ERPs) and reaction time using two different analyses: (1) time point by time point correlation analyses thereby identifying time windows of interest; and (2) correlation analyses between single trial measures of peak latency and amplitude and reaction time. To improve extraction of single trial ERP measures related with activation of the visual cortex, we used an independent component analysis (ICA) procedure. Our ERP analysis revealed a relationship between the N1 visual evoked potential and reaction time. The earliest time point presenting a significant correlation of its respective amplitude with reaction time occurred 175 ms after stimulus onset

  16. High Triglycerides Predicts Arteriogenic Erectile Dysfunction and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Subjects With Sexual Dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corona, Giovanni; Cipriani, Sarah; Rastrelli, Giulia; Sforza, Alessandra; Mannucci, Edoardo; Maggi, Mario

    2016-09-01

    The atherogenic role of triglycerides (TG) remains controversial. The aim of the present study is to analyze the contribution of TG in the pathogenesis of erectile dysfunction (ED) and to verify the value of elevated TG in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). An unselected series of 3,990 men attending our outpatient clinic for sexual dysfunction was retrospectively studied. A subset of this sample (n = 1,687) was enrolled in a longitudinal study. Several clinical, biochemical, and instrumental (penile color Doppler ultrasound; PCDU) factors were evaluated. Among the patients studied, after adjustment for confounders, higher TG levels were associated with arteriogenic ED and a higher risk of clinical and biochemical hypogonadism. Conversely, no association between TG and other sexual dysfunctions was observed. When pathological PCDU parameters-including flaccid acceleration (<1.17 m/sec(2)) or dynamic peak systolic velocity (PSV <35 cm/sec)-were considered, the negative association between impaired penile flow and higher TG levels was confirmed, even when subjects taking lipid-lowering drugs or those with diabetes were excluded from the analysis (OR = 6.343 [1.243;32.362], P = .026 and 3.576 [1.104;11.578]; P = .34 for impaired acceleration and PSV, respectively). Similarly, when the same adjusted models were applied, TG levels were associated with a higher risk of hypogonadism, independently of the definition criteria (OR = 2.892 [1.643;5.410], P < .0001 and 4.853 [1.965;11.990]; P = .001 for total T <12 and 8 nM, respectively). In the longitudinal study, after adjusting for confounders, elevated TG levels (upper quartile: 162-1686 mg/dL) were independently associated with a higher incidence of MACE (HR = 2.469 [1.019;5.981]; P = .045), when compared to the rest of the sample. Our data suggest an association between elevated TG and arteriogenic ED and its cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification. Whether the use of TG lowering drugs

  17. Predicting the onset of major depression in subjects with subthreshold depression in primary care: A prospective study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuijpers, P.; Smit, H.F.E.; Willemse, G.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: That subjects with subthreshold depression have an increased probability of developing major depression has been confirmed by many studies. However, the factors which may predict the onset of major depression have yet to be fully examined. Method: We examined the control group of a

  18. Magneto encephalography (MEG: perspectives of speech areas functional mapping in human subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Butorina A. V.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the main problems in clinical practice and academic research is how to localize speech zones in the human brain. Two speech areas (Broca and Wernicke areas that are responsible for language production and for understanding of written and spoken language have been known since the past century. Their location and even hemispheric lateralization have a substantial inter-individual variability, especially in neurosurgery patients. Wada test is one of the most frequently used invasive methodology for speech hemispheric lateralization in neurosurgery patients. However, besides relatively high-risk of Wada test for patient's health, it has its own limitation, e. g. low reliability of Wada-based evidence of verbal memory brain lateralization. Therefore, there is an urgent need for non-invasive, reliable methods of speech zones mapping.The current review summarizes the recent experimental evidence from magnitoencephalographic (MEG research suggesting that speech areas are included in the speech processing within the first 200 ms after the word onset. The electro-magnetic response to deviant word, mismatch negativity wave with latency of 100—200 ms, can be recorded from auditory cortex within the oddball-paradigm. We provide the arguments that basic features of this brain response, such as its automatic, pre-attentive nature, high signal to noise ratio, source localization at superior temporal sulcus, make it a promising vehicle for non-invasive MEG-based speech areas mapping in neurosurgery.

  19. Structural health monitoring in end-of-life prediction for steel bridges subjected to fatigue cracking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attema, T.; Courage, W.M.G.; Maljaars, J.; Meerveld, H. van; Paulissen, J.H.; Pijpers, R.J.M.; Slobbe, A.T.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a monitoring and modelling methodology to assess the current and future conditions of steel bridges subjected to fatigue cracking. Steel bridges are subjected to fatigue cracking as a result of fluctuating stresses caused by the crossing of heavy vehicles. Specifically for

  20. How Much Will the Sea Level Rise? Outcome Selection and Subjective Probability in Climate Change Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juanchich, Marie; Sirota, Miroslav

    2017-08-17

    We tested whether people focus on extreme outcomes to predict climate change and assessed the gap between the frequency of the predicted outcome and its perceived probability while controlling for climate change beliefs. We also tested 2 cost-effective interventions to reduce the preference for extreme outcomes and the frequency-probability gap by manipulating the probabilistic format: numerical or dual-verbal-numerical. In 4 experiments, participants read a scenario featuring a distribution of sea level rises, selected a sea rise to complete a prediction (e.g., "It is 'unlikely' that the sea level will rise . . . inches") and judged the likelihood of this sea rise occurring. Results showed that people have a preference for predicting extreme climate change outcomes in verbal predictions (59% in Experiments 1-4) and that this preference was not predicted by climate change beliefs. Results also showed an important gap between the predicted outcome frequency and participants' perception of the probability that it would occur. The dual-format reduced the preference for extreme outcomes for low and medium probability predictions but not for high ones, and none of the formats consistently reduced the frequency-probability gap. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Using Tree Detection Algorithms to Predict Stand Sapwood Area, Basal Area and Stocking Density in Eucalyptus regnans Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Jaskierniak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Managers of forested water supply catchments require efficient and accurate methods to quantify changes in forest water use due to changes in forest structure and density after disturbance. Using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR data with as few as 0.9 pulses m−2, we applied a local maximum filtering (LMF method and normalised cut (NCut algorithm to predict stocking density (SDen of a 69-year-old Eucalyptus regnans forest comprising 251 plots with resolution of the order of 0.04 ha. Using the NCut method we predicted basal area (BAHa per hectare and sapwood area (SAHa per hectare, a well-established proxy for transpiration. Sapwood area was also indirectly estimated with allometric relationships dependent on LiDAR derived SDen and BAHa using a computationally efficient procedure. The individual tree detection (ITD rates for the LMF and NCut methods respectively had 72% and 68% of stems correctly identified, 25% and 20% of stems missed, and 2% and 12% of stems over-segmented. The significantly higher computational requirement of the NCut algorithm makes the LMF method more suitable for predicting SDen across large forested areas. Using NCut derived ITD segments, observed versus predicted stand BAHa had R2 ranging from 0.70 to 0.98 across six catchments, whereas a generalised parsimonious model applied to all sites used the portion of hits greater than 37 m in height (PH37 to explain 68% of BAHa. For extrapolating one ha resolution SAHa estimates across large forested catchments, we found that directly relating SAHa to NCut derived LiDAR indices (R2 = 0.56 was slightly more accurate but computationally more demanding than indirect estimates of SAHa using allometric relationships consisting of BAHa (R2 = 0.50 or a sapwood perimeter index, defined as (BAHaSDen½ (R2 = 0.48.

  2. Self-discipline and self-consciousness predict subjective memory in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearman, Ann; Storandt, Martha

    2005-05-01

    Research has shown the personality variables of conscientiousness and neuroticism to be related to subjective memory in older adults. This study was designed to determine the specific facets of these traits involved in the relation between personality and memory complaints. Subjective memory evaluations were examined in 85 community-dwelling people aged 56 to 94 years. Regression analysis revealed that one facet of conscientiousness (self-discipline) and two facets of neuroticism (self-consciousness and anxiety) explained almost one third of the variance in subjective memory complaints. Anxiety acted as a suppressor variable to enhance the contribution of self-consciousness. Objective measures of episodic and prospective memory were not related to subjective memory. Effective treatments of memory complaints in healthy older adults may have to focus on enhancing self-discipline and self-concept.

  3. Subject-specific liver motion modeling in MRI: a feasibility study on spatiotemporal prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noorda, Yolanda H.; Bartels, Lambertus W.; Viergever, Max A.; Pluim, Josien P. W.

    2017-04-01

    A liver motion model based on registration of dynamic MRI data, as previously proposed by the authors, was extended with temporal prediction and respiratory signal data. The potential improvements of these extensions with respect to the original model were investigated. Additional evaluations were performed to investigate the limitations of the model regarding temporal prediction and extreme breathing motion. Data were acquired of four volunteers, with breathing instructions and a respiratory belt. The model was built from these data using spatial prediction only and using temporal forward prediction of 300 ms to 1200 ms, using the extended Kalman filter. From temporal prediction of 0 ms to 1200 ms ahead, the Dice coefficient of liver overlap decreased with 0.85%, the median liver surface distance increased with 20.6% and the vessel misalignment increased with 20%. The mean vessel misalignment was 2.9 mm for the original method, 3.42 mm for spatial prediction with a respiratory signal and 4.01 mm for prediction of 1200 ms ahead with a respiratory signal. Although the extension of the model to temporal prediction yields a decreased prediction accuracy, the results are still acceptable. The use of the breathing signal as input to the model is feasible. Sudden changes in the breathing pattern can yield large errors. However, these errors only persist during a short time interval, after which they can be corrected automatically. Therefore, this model could be useful in a clinical setting.

  4. Cognitive functioning, subjective memory complaints and risky behaviour predict minor home injuries in elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spano, Giuseppina; O Caffò, Alessandro; Bosco, Andrea

    2017-11-27

    Home accidents are one of the major causes of death, particularly in older people, young children and women. The first aim of this study was to explore the role of subjective memory complaints, cognitive functioning and risky behaviour as predictors of home injuries occurred in a year in a sample of healthy Italian older adults. The second aim was to investigate the role of risky behaviour as a mediator in the relationship between subjective and objective cognitive functioning and home injuries. One hundred thirty-three community-dwelling older people from southern Italy were administered a battery of tests to evaluate cognitive functioning, subjective memory complaints, and risky behaviour during home activities. Risky behaviour was evaluated using the Domestic Behaviour Questionnaire, created specifically for this purpose. The number of home injuries was recorded for a year throughout monthly telephone interviews. A path analysis was performed to test the following model: cognitive functioning and subjective memory complaints directly influence risky behaviour and number of accidents over a year; risky behaviour mediates the impact of cognitive functioning and subjective memory on number of accidents over a year. Path analysis confirmed the model tested except the role of risky behaviour as a mediator between cognitive functioning and home accidents. Risky behaviour could represent a further risk factor in cognitively intact older adults with subjective memory complaints. The assessment of both cognition and behaviour in elderly can make a valuable contribution in preventing home accidents in elderly.

  5. Modelling of E. coli distribution in coastal areas subjected to combined sewer overflows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Marchis, Mauro; Freni, Gabriele; Napoli, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    Rivers, lakes and the sea were the natural receivers of raw urban waste and storm waters for a long time but the low sustainability of such practice, the increase of population and a renewed environmental sensibility increased researcher interest in the analysis and mitigation of the impact of urban waters on receiving water bodies (RWB). In Europe, the integrated modelling of drainage systems and RWB has been promoted as a promising approach for implementing the Water Framework Directive. A particular interest is given to the fate of pathogens and especially of Escherichia coli, in all the cases in which an interaction between population and the RWB is foreseen. The present paper aims to propose an integrated water quality model involving the analysis of several sewer systems (SS) discharging their polluting overflows on the coast in a sensitive marine environment. From a modelling point of view, the proposed application integrated one-dimensional drainage system models with a complex three-dimensional model analysing the propagation in space and time of E. coli in the coastal marine area. The integrated approach was tested in a real case study (the Acicastello bay in Italy) where data were available both for SS model and for RWB propagation model calibration. The analysis shows a good agreement between the model and monitored data. The integrated model was demonstrated to be a valuable tool for investigating the pollutant propagation and to highlight the most impacted areas.

  6. When a gold standard isn't so golden: Lack of prediction of subjective sleep quality from sleep polysomnography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Katherine A; Hirshman, Jason; Hernandez, Beatriz; Stefanick, Marcia L; Hoffman, Andrew R; Redline, Susan; Ancoli-Israel, Sonia; Stone, Katie; Friedman, Leah; Zeitzer, Jamie M

    2017-02-01

    Reports of subjective sleep quality are frequently collected in research and clinical practice. It is unclear, however, how well polysomnographic measures of sleep correlate with subjective reports of prior-night sleep quality in elderly men and women. Furthermore, the relative importance of various polysomnographic, demographic and clinical characteristics in predicting subjective sleep quality is not known. We sought to determine the correlates of subjective sleep quality in older adults using more recently developed machine learning algorithms that are suitable for selecting and ranking important variables. Community-dwelling older men (n=1024) and women (n=459), a subset of those participating in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study and the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures study, respectively, completed a single night of at-home polysomnographic recording of sleep followed by a set of morning questions concerning the prior night's sleep quality. Questionnaires concerning demographics and psychological characteristics were also collected prior to the overnight recording and entered into multivariable models. Two machine learning algorithms, lasso penalized regression and random forests, determined variable selection and the ordering of variable importance separately for men and women. Thirty-eight sleep, demographic and clinical correlates of sleep quality were considered. Together, these multivariable models explained only 11-17% of the variance in predicting subjective sleep quality. Objective sleep efficiency emerged as the strongest correlate of subjective sleep quality across all models, and across both sexes. Greater total sleep time and sleep stage transitions were also significant objective correlates of subjective sleep quality. The amount of slow wave sleep obtained was not determined to be important. Overall, the commonly obtained measures of polysomnographically-defined sleep contributed little to subjective ratings of prior-night sleep quality

  7. From Motion to Emotion: Accelerometer Data Predict Subjective Experience of Music

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Irrgang, Melanie; Egermann, Hauke

    2016-01-01

    .... In two experiments we evaluated the discriminative power of mobile-device generated acceleration data produced by free movement during music listening for the prediction of ratings on the Geneva Emotion Music Scales (GEMS-9...

  8. Predictive Factors for Subjective Improvement in Lumbar Spinal Stenosis Patients with Nonsurgical Treatment: A 3-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsudaira, Ko; Hara, Nobuhiro; Oka, Hiroyuki; Kunogi, Junichi; Yamazaki, Takashi; Takeshita, Katsushi; Atsushi, Seichi; Tanaka, Sakae

    2016-01-01

    To assess the predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment in consecutive patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). Patients with LSS were enrolled from 17 medical centres in Japan. We followed up 274 patients (151 men; mean age, 71 ± 7.4 years) for 3 years. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess the predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment. In 30% of patients, conservative treatment led to a subjective improvement in the symptoms; in 70% of patients, the symptoms remained unchanged, worsened, or required surgical treatment. The multivariable analysis of predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment showed that the absence of cauda equina symptoms (only radicular symptoms) had an odds ratio (OR) of 3.31 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-7.31); absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis had an OR of 2.53 (95% CI: 1.13-5.65); radicular symptoms, absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis, and an illness duration of <1 year.

  9. From Motion to Emotion: Accelerometer Data Predict Subjective Experience of Music

    OpenAIRE

    Irrgang, Melanie; Egermann, Hauke

    2016-01-01

    Music is often discussed to be emotional because it reflects expressive movements in audible form. Thus, a valid approach to measure musical emotion could be to assess movement stimulated by music. In two experiments we evaluated the discriminative power of mobile-device generated acceleration data produced by free movement during music listening for the prediction of ratings on the Geneva Emotion Music Scales (GEMS-9). The quality of prediction for different dimensions of GEMS varied between...

  10. Individualized Gaussian process-based prediction and detection of local and global gray matter abnormalities in elderly subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, G; Ridgway, G R; Dahnke, R; Gaser, C

    2014-08-15

    Structural imaging based on MRI is an integral component of the clinical assessment of patients with potential dementia. We here propose an individualized Gaussian process-based inference scheme for clinical decision support in healthy and pathological aging elderly subjects using MRI. The approach aims at quantitative and transparent support for clinicians who aim to detect structural abnormalities in patients at risk of Alzheimer's disease or other types of dementia. Firstly, we introduce a generative model incorporating our knowledge about normative decline of local and global gray matter volume across the brain in elderly. By supposing smooth structural trajectories the models account for the general course of age-related structural decline as well as late-life accelerated loss. Considering healthy subjects' demography and global brain parameters as informative about normal brain aging variability affords individualized predictions in single cases. Using Gaussian process models as a normative reference, we predict new subjects' brain scans and quantify the local gray matter abnormalities in terms of Normative Probability Maps (NPM) and global z-scores. By integrating the observed expectation error and the predictive uncertainty, the local maps and global scores exploit the advantages of Bayesian inference for clinical decisions and provide a valuable extension of diagnostic information about pathological aging. We validate the approach in simulated data and real MRI data. We train the GP framework using 1238 healthy subjects with ages 18-94 years, and predict in 415 independent test subjects diagnosed as healthy controls, Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Chaotic analysis and short-term prediction of ozone pollution in Malaysian urban area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, Nor Zila Abd; Noorani, Mohd Salmi Md; Hamiza Adenan, Nur

    2017-09-01

    This study focuses on the analysis and prediction of hourly ozone (O3) pollution in one of Malaysian urban area namely Shah Alam through chaotic approach. This approach begins by detecting the chaotic behavior of the O3 pollution using phase space plot and Cao method. Then, the local mean approximation method is used for prediction purposes. The O3 pollution observed at Shah Alam is detected as chaotic in behavior. Due to the chaotic behavior, only short-term prediction is allowed. Thus, the one-hour ahead prediction is done through the local mean approximation method. The prediction result shows that correlation coefficient value between the observed and predicted time series is near to one. This excellent prediction result shows in particular that the local mean approximation method can be used to predict the O3 pollution in urban area. In general, chaotic approach is a useful approach that can be used to analyze and predict the O3 pollution time series.

  12. CO2 sequestration in two mediterranean dune areas subjected to a different level of anthropogenic disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonito, Andrea; Ricotta, Carlo; Iberite, Mauro; Gratani, Loretta; Varone, Laura

    2017-09-01

    Coastal sand dunes are among the most threatened habitats, especially in the Mediterranean Basin, where the high levels of human pressure impair the presence of plant species, putting at risk the maintenance of the ecosystem services, such as CO2 sequestration provided by these habitats. The aim of this study was to analyze how disturbance-induced changes in plant species abundance patterns account for variations in annual CO2 sequestration flow (CS) of Mediterranean sand dune areas. Two sites characterized by a high (site HAD) and a lower (site LAD) anthropogenic disturbance level were selected. At both sites, plant species number, cover, height and CS based on net photosynthesis measurements were sampled. At the plant species level, our results highlighted that Ammophila arenaria and Pancratium maritimum, had a key role in CS. Moreover, the results revealed a patchy species assemblage in both sites. In particular, HAD was characterized by a higher extension of the anthropogenic aphytoic zone (64% of the total transect length) than LAD. In spite of the observed differences in plant species composition, there were not significant differences between HAD and LAD in structural and functional traits, such as plant height and net photosynthesis. As a consequence, HAD and LAD had a similar CS (443 and 421 Mg CO2 ha-1 y-1, respectively). From a monetary point of view, our estimates based on the social costs of carbon revealed that the flow of sequestered CO2 valued on an average 3181 ± 114 ha-1 year-1 (mean value for the two sites). However, considering also the value of the CO2 negative flow related to loss of vegetated area, the annual net benefit arising from CO2 sequestration amounted to 1641 and 1772 for HAD and LAD, respectively. Overall, the results highlighted the importance to maximize the efforts to preserve dune habitats by applying an effective management policy, which could allow maintaining also a regulatory ecosystem service such as CO2 sequestration.

  13. The ability of an electrocardiogram to predict fatal and non-fatal cardiac events in asymptomatic middle-aged subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terho, Henri K; Tikkanen, Jani T; Kenttä, Tuomas V; Junttila, M Juhani; Aro, Aapo L; Anttonen, Olli; Kerola, Tuomas; Rissanen, Harri A; Knekt, Paul; Reunanen, Antti; Huikuri, Heikki V

    2016-11-01

    The long-term prognostic value of a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) for predicting cardiac events in apparently healthy middle-aged subjects is not well defined. A total of 9511 middle-aged subjects (mean age 43 ± 8.2 years, 52% males) without a known cardiac disease and with a follow-up 40 years were included in the study. Fatal and non-fatal cardiac events were collected from the national registries. The predictive value of ECG was separately analyzed for 10 and 30 years. Major ECG abnormalities were classified according to the Minnesota code. Subjects with major ECG abnormalities (N = 1131) had an increased risk of cardiac death after 10-years (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.7; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.1-2.5, p = 0.009) and 30-years of follow-up (HR 1.3, 95% CI, 1.1-1.5, p electrocardiogram are shown to have prognostic significance for cardiac events in elderly subjects without known cardiac disease. Our results suggest that ECG abnormalities increase the risk of fatal cardiac events also in middle-aged healthy subjects.

  14. Population aging in local areas and subjective well-being of older adults: Findings from two studies in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Tami; Sugisawa, Hidehiro; Harada, Ken; Kai, Ichiro

    2016-05-23

    Subjective well-being (SWB) of older adults could be affected by both individual and community characteristics. However, the effect of community characteristics, such as population aging in local areas, remains unclear. This study examined the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between the area-level population aging and SWB of older individuals from two distinct surveys. Those analyzed were 572 respondents aged 75 years and older for a cross-sectional survey in a metropolitan area in Tokyo, Japan (Study 1) and 1,257 and 859 respondents for a cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, respectively, for a 2-year longitudinal survey project in urban and rural areas of Fukui Prefecture (Study 2). Area-level population aging was assessed by the number of people aged 65 years or older per 100 residents. SWB was assessed with the Life Satisfaction Index-A (LSIA). Multilevel analysis was performed to examine unconditional and conditional associations between the area-level number of older adults per 100 residents and the individual-level LSIA scores. The area-level number of older adults per 100 residents was significantly and positively associated with the LSIA scores in Study 1 (p = 0.042), even after controlling for the area- and individual-level covariates. In Study 2, we also found a significant effect of the area-level number of older adults per 100 residents on LSIA scores in the longitudinal multivariate analysis (p = 0.049). Findings from two survey projects suggested cross-validity in the positive effect of area-level population aging on older adults' SWB. Policymakers should consider older citizens' SWB in the recent urban-to-rural migration governmental policy as well as in urban renovation planning.

  15. Predicting subjective vitality and performance in sports: the role of passion and achievement goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chiung-Huang

    2010-06-01

    The major purpose of this study was to test the hypothesized paths from dualistic passions through achievement goals to subjective vitality and performance in sports. 645 high school athletes participated. The proposed structural equation model, with relationships between dualistic passions and subjective vitality and sports performance mediated by achievement goals, fit the data well, especially for mastery-approach and performance-approach goals. Harmonious and obsessive passions may lead athletes to high performance via the adoption of mastery-approach goals. However, these passions seem to have two paths influencing personal functioning: direct effects make players feel energetic, and indirect effects on subjective vitality through adoption of mastery-approach and performance-approach goals.

  16. Facebook Use Predicts Declines in Subjective Well-Being in Young Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Kross, Ethan; Verduyn, Philippe; Demiralp, Emre; Park, Jiyoung; Lee, David Seungjae; Lin, Natalie; Shablack, Holly; Jonides, John; Ybarra, Oscar

    2013-01-01

    Over 500 million people interact daily with Facebook. Yet, whether Facebook use influences subjective well-being over time is unknown. We addressed this issue using experience-sampling, the most reliable method for measuring in-vivo behavior and psychological experience. We text-messaged people five times per day for two-weeks to examine how Facebook use influences the two components of subjective well-being: how people feel moment-to-moment and how satisfied they are with their lives. Our re...

  17. The Difference in Translaminar Pressure Gradient and Neuroretinal Rim Area in Glaucoma and Healthy Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Siaudvytyte

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To assess differences in translaminar pressure gradient (TPG and neuroretinal rim area (NRA in patients with normal tension glaucoma (NTG, high tension glaucoma (HTG, and healthy controls. Methods. 27 patients with NTG, HTG, and healthy controls were included in the prospective pilot study (each group consisted of 9 patients. Intraocular pressure (IOP, intracranial pressure (ICP, and confocal laser scanning tomography were assessed. TPG was calculated as the difference of IOP minus ICP. ICP was measured using noninvasive two-depth transcranial Doppler device. The level of significance P 0.05. The difference between TPG for healthy (5.4(7.7 mmHg and glaucomatous eyes (NTG 6.3(3.1 mmHg, HTG 15.7(7.7 mmHg was statistically significant (P < 0.001. Higher TPG was correlated with decreased NRA (r = −0.83; P = 0.01 in the NTG group. Conclusion. Translaminar pressure gradient was higher in glaucoma patients. Reduction of NRA was related to higher TPG in NTG patients. Further prospective studies are warranted to investigate the involvement of TPG in glaucoma management.

  18. Improvement of Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System (ASAPS) on Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jeong-Gyun; Jee, Joon-Bum

    2017-04-01

    Dangerous weather such as severe rain, heavy snow, drought and heat wave caused by climate change make more damage in the urban area that dense populated and industry areas. Urban areas, unlike the rural area, have big population and transportation, dense the buildings and fuel consumption. Anthropogenic factors such as road energy balance, the flow of air in the urban is unique meteorological phenomena. However several researches are in process about prediction of urban meteorology. ASAPS (Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System) predicts a severe weather with very short range (prediction with 6 hour) and high resolution (every hour with time and 1 km with space) on Seoul metropolitan area based on KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). This system configured three parts that make a background field (SUF5), analysis field (SU01) with observation and forecast field with high resolution (SUF1). In this study, we improve a high-resolution ASAPS model and perform a sensitivity test for the rainfall case. The improvement of ASAPS include model domain configuration, high resolution topographic data and data assimilation with WISE observation data.

  19. An Investigation of the Predictive Role of Authenticity on Subjective Vitality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gocet Tekin, Emine; Satici, Begum

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to determine the relationship between authenticity and subjective vitality among university students in Turkey. The study was carried out with 284 university students (164 female, 120 male, M[subscript age] = 19.91 years, SD = 1.79, and age range: 17-30). Participants completed the Turkish version of the Authenticity Scale and…

  20. Moderate alcohol consumption predicts long-term mortality in elderly subjects with chronic heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gargiulo, G; Testa, G; Cacciatore, F; Mazzella, F; Galizia, G; Della-Morte, D; Langellotto, A; Pirozzi, G; Ferro, G; Ferrara, N; Rengo, F; Abete, P

    2013-01-01

    Moderate alcohol consumption is related to a reduction of mortality. However, this phenomenon is not well established in the elderly, especially in the presence of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of the study was to verify the effect of moderate alcohol consumption on 12-year mortality in elderly community-dwelling with and without CHF. community-dwelling from 5 regions of Italy. A cohort of 1332 subjects aged 65 and older. Mortality after 12-year follow-up in elderly subjects (≥65 years old) with and without CHF was studied. Moderate alcohol consumption was considered ≤250 ml/day (drinkers). In the absence of CHF (n=947), mortality was 42.2% in drinkers vs. 53.7% in non-drinker elderly subjects (p=0.021). In contrast, in the presence of CHF (n=117), mortality was 86.5% in drinkers vs. 69.7% in non-drinker elderly subjects (p=0.004). Accordingly, Cox regression analysis shows that a moderate alcohol consumption is protective of mortality in the absence (HR=0.79; CI 95% 0.66-0.95; pmoderate alcohol consumption is associated with an increased long-term mortality risk in the elderly in the presence of CHF.

  1. Serum MHPG Strongly Predicts Conversion to Alzheimer's Disease in Behaviorally Characterized Subjects with Down Syndrome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, Alain D.; Coppus, Antonia M. W.; Vermeiren, Yannick; Aerts, Tony; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Kremer, Berry P.; Naude, Pieter J. W.; Van Dam, Debby; De Deyn, Peter P.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Down syndrome (DS) is the most prevalent genetic cause of intellectual disability. Early-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD) frequently develops in DS and is characterized by progressive memory loss and behavioral and psychological signs and symptoms of dementia (BPSD). Predicting and

  2. Early visual responses predict conscious face perception within and between subjects during binocular rivalry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandberg, Kristian; Bahrami, Bahador; Kanai, Ryota; Barnes, Gareth Robert; Overgaard, Morten; Rees, Geraint

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies indicate that conscious face perception may be related to neural activity in a large time window around 170-800ms after stimulus presentation, yet in the majority of these studies changes in conscious experience are confounded with changes in physical stimulation. Using multivariate classification on MEG data recorded when participants reported changes in conscious perception evoked by binocular rivalry between a face and a grating, we showed that only MEG signals in the 120-320ms time range, peaking at the M170 around 180ms and the P2m at around 260ms, reliably predicted conscious experience. Conscious perception could not only be decoded significantly better than chance from the sensors that showed the largest average difference, as previous studies suggest, but also from patterns of activity across groups of occipital sensors that individually were unable to predict perception better than chance. Additionally, source space analyses showed that sources in the early and late visual system predicted conscious perception more accurately than frontal and parietal sites, although conscious perception could also be decoded there. Finally, the patterns of neural activity associated with conscious face perception generalized from one participant to another around the times of maximum prediction accuracy. Our work thus demonstrates that the neural correlates of particular conscious contents (here, faces) are highly consistent in time and space within individuals and that these correlates are shared to some extent between individuals. PMID:23281780

  3. Nonrandom Acts of Kindness: Parasympathetic and Subjective Empathic Responses to Sadness Predict Children's Prosociality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jonas G.; Nuselovici, Jacob N.; Hastings, Paul D.

    2016-01-01

    How does empathic physiology unfold as a dynamic process, and which aspect of empathy predicts children's kindness? In response to empathy induction videos, 4- to 6-year-old children (N = 180) showed an average pattern of dynamic respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) change characterized by early RSA suppression, followed by RSA recovery, and modest…

  4. Disorganized Symptoms and Executive Functioning Predict Impaired Social Functioning in Subjects at Risk for Psychosis

    OpenAIRE

    Eslami, Ali; Jahshan, Carol; Cadenhead, Kristin S.

    2011-01-01

    Predictors of social functioning deficits were assessed in 22 individuals “at risk” for psychosis. Disorganized symptoms and executive functioning predicted social functioning at follow-up. Early intervention efforts that focus on social and cognitive skills are indicated in this vulnerable population.

  5. Early visual responses predict conscious face perception within and between subjects during binocular rivalry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandberg, Kristian; Bahrami, Bahador; Kanai, Ryota; Barnes, Gareth Robert; Overgaard, Morten; Rees, Geraint

    2013-06-01

    Previous studies indicate that conscious face perception may be related to neural activity in a large time window around 170-800 msec after stimulus presentation, yet in the majority of these studies changes in conscious experience are confounded with changes in physical stimulation. Using multivariate classification on MEG data recorded when participants reported changes in conscious perception evoked by binocular rivalry between a face and a grating, we showed that only MEG signals in the 120-320 msec time range, peaking at the M170 around 180 msec and the P2m at around 260 msec, reliably predicted conscious experience. Conscious perception could not only be decoded significantly better than chance from the sensors that showed the largest average difference, as previous studies suggest, but also from patterns of activity across groups of occipital sensors that individually were unable to predict perception better than chance. In addition, source space analyses showed that sources in the early and late visual system predicted conscious perception more accurately than frontal and parietal sites, although conscious perception could also be decoded there. Finally, the patterns of neural activity associated with conscious face perception generalized from one participant to another around the times of maximum prediction accuracy. Our work thus demonstrates that the neural correlates of particular conscious contents (here, faces) are highly consistent in time and space within individuals and that these correlates are shared to some extent between individuals.

  6. Framingham coronary heart disease risk score can be predicted from structural brain images in elderly subjects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Maryam Rondina

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent literature has presented evidence that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF play an important role on cognitive performance in elderly individuals, both those who are asymptomatic and those who suffer from symptoms of neurodegenerative disorders. Findings from studies applying neuroimaging methods have increasingly reinforced such notion. Studies addressing the impact of CVRF on brain anatomy changes have gained increasing importance, as recent papers have reported gray matter loss predominantly in regions traditionally affected in Alzheimer’s disease (AD and vascular dementia in the presence of a high degree of cardiovascular risk. In the present paper, we explore the association between CVRF and brain changes using pattern recognition techniques applied to structural MRI and the Framingham score (a composite measure of cardiovascular risk largely used in epidemiological studies in a sample of healthy elderly individuals. We aim to answer the following questions: Is it possible to decode (i.e., to learn information regarding cardiovascular risk from structural brain images enabling individual predictions? Among clinical measures comprising the Framingham score, are there particular risk factors that stand as more predictable from patterns of brain changes? Our main findings are threefold: i we verified that structural changes in spatially distributed patterns in the brain enable statistically significant prediction of Framingham scores. This result is still significant when controlling for the presence of the APOE 4 allele (an important genetic risk factor for both AD and cardiovascular disease. ii When considering each risk factor singly, we found different levels of correlation between real and predicted factors; however, single factors were not significantly predictable from brain images when considering APOE4 allele presence as covariate. iii We found important gender differences, and the possible causes of that finding are discussed.

  7. Sonographic measurements of low-echoic synovial area in the dorsal aspect of metatarsophalangeal joints in healthy subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiraga, Masao; Ikeda, Kei; Shigeta, Koichiro; Sato, Akito; Yoshitama, Tamami; Hara, Ryota; Tanaka, Yasuhito

    2015-05-01

    Assessment of synovitis in the metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints with ultrasound has been shown to improve the accuracy of assessment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, the presence of intraarticular low-echoic synovial area (LESA) in the MTP joints in healthy subjects complicates the sonographic assessment of these joints. Healthy subjects with no arthritic symptoms in their MTP joints were recruited. All subjects completed a questionnaire and underwent physical examination and sonographic assessment. LESAs in the dorsal aspect of all MTP joints were measured in the longitudinal view. One thousand non-arthritic MTP joints in 100 healthy subjects (female 73, mean age 41.0 years old) were evaluated. Measurable LESAs were identified in all joints assessed. Mean length of LESA in each of the 1st-5th MTP joints was 17.8, 13.9, 11.9, 10.6, and 9.2 mm, respectively, whereas mean thickness was 2.4, 2.4, 1.8, 1.2, and 0.8 mm, respectively. Multivariate linear regression models identified the difference between 1st and 5th MTP joints as the most independently influential factor on the measurement of LESA. Our data provide the normal reference values for the measurements of LESA in Japanese, which should be taken into consideration when the synovitis in MTP joints is evaluated with ultrasound.

  8. [Vitamin D deficiency prediction by patient questionnaire and secondary hyperparathyroidism in a cohort of 526 healthy subjects in their fifties].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laroche, Michel; Nigon, Delphine; Gennero, Isabelle; Lassoued, Slim; Pouilles, Jean-Michel; Trémolières, Florence; Vallet, Marion; Tack, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    Can vitamin D deficiency be predicted by patient questionnaire? Does it lead to secondary hyperparathyroidism that may cause excessive bone resorption? We studied non-osteoporotic subjects in their fifties, in whom vitamin D levels are often tested. Patients hospitalised for degenerative osteoarthritis or consulting for assessment of menopause, without renal failure and not treated with vitamin D, completed a questionnaire on sun exposure and underwent measurement of serum calcium, creatinine, 25OH vitamin D, PTH and CTX. Five hundred and twenty-six subjects, mean age 54.6 years (71% women), were investigated throughout the year. 25OH vitamin D levels were correlated with sun exposure and varied according to the month of the year, unlike PTH and CTX levels. From November to May, over 90% of subjects had 25OH vitamin D levelsvitamin D levelsvitamin D. Serum CTX levels were not correlated with PTH or 25OH vitamin D. Only 13% of subjects presented with secondary hyperparathyroidism, characterised by serum calcium65pg/mL, associated with increased CTX levels. Vitamin D deficiency can be predicted by patient questionnaire. It very rarely leads to secondary hyperparathyroidism. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  9. Subjective stimulant and sedative effects of alcohol during early drinking experiences predict alcohol involvement in treated adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Tammy; Martin, Christopher S

    2009-09-01

    Research on low subjective response to alcohol has focused primarily on alcohol's sedative effects during early drinking experiences. This study examined subjective response to both stimulant and sedative effects of alcohol during initial drinking experiences as predictors of treated adolescents' severity of alcohol involvement before treatment and over 1-year follow-up. Adolescents (N = 169) recruited from addictions treatment reported on the number of drinks needed to obtain stimulant and sedative effects of alcohol for early and heavy drinking periods. The number of drinks needed to obtain stimulant and sedative effects, as well as the degree of stimulant and sedative effect obtained, were examined as predictors of adolescents' alcohol involvement at baseline (before treatment) and 1-year follow-up. During early drinking experiences, females reported a greater degree of sedative effect compared with males; there was no gender difference in degree of stimulant effect reported during early drinking experiences. Both early subjective stimulant and sedative effects of alcohol predicted the usual number of drinks needed to become intoxicated and the maximum drinking quantity per day before treatment. However, at 1-year follow-up, only early sedative effects predicted 1-year outcomes. Study findings suggest potentially important roles for both early subjective stimulant and sedative effects of alcohol in relation to adolescent alcohol involvement.

  10. Fatigue damage accumulation and lifetime prediction of defective C35 steel subjected to block loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sallem Haifa

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the influence of both defect and loading sequence on fatigue damage accumulation of C35 steel containing artificial defects. Tests were carried out using fatigue samples with artificial spherical defects introduced at the surface. Tests were performed using two blocks loading under increasing and decreasing magnitude. The experimental results were compared to the damage calculated by the Miner rule. In the case of defective material; it is shown in both cases a minor influence of sequence’s effect. A lifetime prediction method is then developed to assess the residual lifetime of damaged defective material. The method is based on a multiaxial endurance criterion used to calculate the equivalent local stress distribution around the defect and to inject it in an uniaxial damage cumulative rule. Finally a comparison between experimental and theoretical results is performed. It is observed that the Mesmacque sequential law gives the most accurate lifetime prediction of defective specimens.

  11. Comparison of optic area measurement using fundus photography and optical coherence tomography between optic nerve head drusen and control subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Rodríguez, Patricia; Gili, Pablo; Martín-Ríos, María Dolores; Grifol-Clar, Eulalia

    2013-03-01

    To compare optic disc area measurement between optic nerve head drusen (ONHD) and control subjects using fundus photography, time-domain optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT) and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). We also made a comparison between each of the three techniques. We performed our study on 66 eyes (66 patients) with ONHD and 70 healthy control subjects (70 controls) with colour ocular fundus photography at 20º (Zeiss FF 450 IR plus), TD-OCT (Stratus OCT) with the Fast Optic Disc protocol and SD-OCT (Cirrus OCT) with the Optic Disc Cube 200 × 200 protocol for measurement of the optic disc area. The measurements were made by two observers and in each measurement a correction of the image magnification factor was performed. Measurement comparison using the Student's t-test/Mann-Whitney U test, the intraclass correlation coefficient, Pearson/Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the Bland-Altman plot was performed in the statistical analysis. Mean and standard deviation (SD) of the optic disc area in ONHD and in controls was 2.38 (0.54) mm(2) and 2.54 (0.42) mm(2), respectively with fundus photography; 2.01 (0.56) mm(2) and 1.66 (0.37) mm(2), respectively with TD-OCT, and 2.03 (0.49) mm(2) and 1.75 (0.38) mm(2), respectively with SD-OCT. In ONHD and controls, repeatability of optic disc area measurement was excellent with fundus photography and optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT and SD-OCT), but with a low degree of agreement between both techniques. Optic disc area measurement is smaller in ONHD compared to healthy subjects with fundus photography, unlike time-domain and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography in which the reverse is true. Both techniques offer good repeatability, but a low degree of correlation and agreement, which means that optic disc area measurement is not interchangeable or comparable between techniques. Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2013 The College of Optometrists.

  12. Predicting Traffic Flow in Local Area Networks by the Largest Lyapunov Exponent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of network traffic are complex and nonlinear, and chaotic behaviors and their prediction, which play an important role in local area networks (LANs, are studied in detail, using the largest Lyapunov exponent. With the introduction of phase space reconstruction based on the time sequence, the high-dimensional traffic is projected onto the low dimension reconstructed phase space, and a reduced dynamic system is obtained from the dynamic system viewpoint. Then, a numerical method for computing the largest Lyapunov exponent of the low-dimensional dynamic system is presented. Further, the longest predictable time, which is related to chaotic behaviors in the system, is studied using the largest Lyapunov exponent, and the Wolf method is used to predict the evolution of the traffic in a local area network by both Dot and Interval predictions, and a reliable result is obtained by the presented method. As the conclusion, the results show that the largest Lyapunov exponent can be used to describe the sensitivity of the trajectory in the reconstructed phase space to the initial values. Moreover, Dot Prediction can effectively predict the flow burst. The numerical simulation also shows that the presented method is feasible and efficient for predicting the complex dynamic behaviors in LAN traffic, especially for congestion and attack in networks, which are the main two complex phenomena behaving as chaos in networks.

  13. Mismatch negativity and cognitive performance for the prediction of psychosis in subjects with at-risk mental state.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuko Higuchi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A shorter duration of untreated psychosis has been associated with better prognosis in schizophrenia. In this study, we measured the duration mismatch negativity (dMMN, an event-related potential, and cognitive performance in subjects with at-risk mental state (ARMS, patients with first-episode or chronic schizophrenia, and healthy volunteers. The main interest was to determine if these neurocognitive measures predict progression to overt schizophrenia in ARMS subjects. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Seventeen ARMS subjects, meeting the criteria of the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental State, 31 schizophrenia patients (20 first-episode and 11 chronic and healthy controls (N=20 participated in the study. dMMN was measured by an auditory odd-ball paradigm at baseline. Neuropsychological performance was evaluated by the Japanese version of the Brief assessment of cognitive function of schizophrenia (BACS-J. The first-episode schizophrenia group showed significantly smaller amplitudes at frontal electrodes than did control subjects whereas chronic patients elicited smaller amplitudes at frontal and central electrodes, consistent with previous reports. During the follow-up period, 4 out of the 17 ARMS subjects transitioned to schizophrenia (converters while 13 did not (non-converters. Specifically, dMMN amplitudes of non-converters did not differ from those of healthy controls, while converters showed significantly smaller dMMN amplitudes at some electrodes compared to control subjects. Converters performed significantly worse on tests of working memory, verbal fluency, and attention/information processing than did non-converters. There was a significant positive correlation between dMMN amplitudes at the frontal electrodes and verbal fluency, as measured by the BACS, in the AMRS subjects as a whole. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: ARMS subjects who later developed schizophrenia elicited smaller dMMN amplitudes to begin with, compared

  14. Clarifying the contribution of subjective norm to predicting leisure-time exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okun, Morris A; Karoly, Paul; Lutz, Rafer

    2002-01-01

    To clarify the contribution of subjective norm to exercise intention and behavior by considering the influence of descriptive as well as injunctive social norms related to family and friends. A sample of 530 college students completed a questionnaire that assessed descriptive and injunctive social norms related to family and to friends, perceived behavioral control, attitude, intention, and leisure-time exercise. Friend descriptive social norm was a significant predictor of both intention (pnorms should be incorporated into tests of the theory of planned behavior in the exercise domain.

  15. Role of electrocardiography and echocardiography in prevention and predicting outcome of subjects at increased risk of heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Bello, Vitantonio; La Carrubba, Salvatore; Antonini-Canterin, Francesco; Di Salvo, Giovanni; Caso, Pio; La Canna, Giovanni; Erlicher, Andrea; Badano, Luigi; Romano, Maria Francesca; Zito, Concetta; Vriz, Olga; Conte, Lorenzo; Carerj, Scipione

    2015-02-01

    Asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction (ALVD) is relatively common in both community and high-risk populations. Early pharmacological intervention can improve clinical outcomes in subjects with this condition. This multicentre study consists on electrocardiographic and echocardiographic examination of stage A and B heart failure (HF) asymptomatic subjects with one or more cardiovascular risk factors, to assess the prognostic value of cardiovascular risk factors per se, clinical history, and electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters in prediction of progression of HF and/or in development of cardiovascular primary or secondary events. A total of 2142 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 63 years, 1162 males) performed an electrocardiographic and echocardiographic examination. Electrocardiogram (ECG) pathological signs according to Minnesota code and left ventricular dysfunction both systolic and diastolic by echocardiography were evaluated. There were 2002 subjects who were followed up for 26 ± 11 months, observing their primary and secondary end points. At follow up, the study population presented 111 primary end points (5.2%) and 441 secondary end points (20.6%). ECG criteria of LV hypertrophy and signs of ischaemia or previous myocardial infarction (p < 0.0001) were highly significantly related to primary end points. Both ECG and echocardiography (systolic function) are able at Kaplan-Meier cumulative survival curves to predict primary end points (p < 0.0001). Presence or absence of left ventricular systolic and /or diastolic dysfunction has an incremental value in comparison to cardiovascular risk factors, clinical history, and ECG findings to predict both the evolution towards a more severe HF stage (stage C) and also the occurrence of cardiovascular events. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  16. From Motion to Emotion: Accelerometer Data Predict Subjective Experience of Music.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irrgang, Melanie; Egermann, Hauke

    2016-01-01

    Music is often discussed to be emotional because it reflects expressive movements in audible form. Thus, a valid approach to measure musical emotion could be to assess movement stimulated by music. In two experiments we evaluated the discriminative power of mobile-device generated acceleration data produced by free movement during music listening for the prediction of ratings on the Geneva Emotion Music Scales (GEMS-9). The quality of prediction for different dimensions of GEMS varied between experiments for tenderness (R12(first experiment) = 0.50, R22(second experiment) = 0.39), nostalgia (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.30), wonder (R12 = 0.25, R22 = 0.34), sadness (R12 = 0.24, R22 = 0.35), peacefulness (R12 = 0.20, R22 = 0.35) and joy (R12 = 0.19, R22 = 0.33) and transcendence (R12 = 0.14, R22 = 0.00). For others like power (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.49) and tension (R12 = 0.28, R22 = 0.27) results could be almost reproduced. Furthermore, we extracted two principle components from GEMS ratings, one representing arousal and the other one valence of the experienced feeling. Both qualities, arousal and valence, could be predicted by acceleration data, indicating, that they provide information on the quantity and quality of experience. On the one hand, these findings show how music-evoked movement patterns relate to music-evoked feelings. On the other hand, they contribute to integrate findings from the field of embodied music cognition into music recommender systems.

  17. From Motion to Emotion: Accelerometer Data Predict Subjective Experience of Music.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Irrgang

    Full Text Available Music is often discussed to be emotional because it reflects expressive movements in audible form. Thus, a valid approach to measure musical emotion could be to assess movement stimulated by music. In two experiments we evaluated the discriminative power of mobile-device generated acceleration data produced by free movement during music listening for the prediction of ratings on the Geneva Emotion Music Scales (GEMS-9. The quality of prediction for different dimensions of GEMS varied between experiments for tenderness (R12(first experiment = 0.50, R22(second experiment = 0.39, nostalgia (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.30, wonder (R12 = 0.25, R22 = 0.34, sadness (R12 = 0.24, R22 = 0.35, peacefulness (R12 = 0.20, R22 = 0.35 and joy (R12 = 0.19, R22 = 0.33 and transcendence (R12 = 0.14, R22 = 0.00. For others like power (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.49 and tension (R12 = 0.28, R22 = 0.27 results could be almost reproduced. Furthermore, we extracted two principle components from GEMS ratings, one representing arousal and the other one valence of the experienced feeling. Both qualities, arousal and valence, could be predicted by acceleration data, indicating, that they provide information on the quantity and quality of experience. On the one hand, these findings show how music-evoked movement patterns relate to music-evoked feelings. On the other hand, they contribute to integrate findings from the field of embodied music cognition into music recommender systems.

  18. Circulating leukocyte-derived microparticles predict subclinical atherosclerosis burden in asymptomatic subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chironi, Gilles; Simon, Alain; Hugel, Bénédicte; Del Pino, Muriel; Gariepy, Jérôme; Freyssinet, Jean-Marie; Tedgui, Alain

    2006-12-01

    To clarify circulating microparticles (MP) relationships with preclinical atherosclerosis. In 216 subjects without cardiovascular disease, we assessed: (1) annexin V-positive, platelet-derived, endothelium-derived and leukocyte-derived circulating MP by capture on annexin V, anti-GPIb, anti-CD105, and anti-CD11a antibody-coated wells, respectively; (2) Framingham risk, metabolic syndrome, and low-grade inflammation by risk factors measurement including hsCRP; and (3) subclinical atherosclerosis by ultrasound examination of carotid, abdominal aorta, and femoral arteries. Number of sites with plaque ranged from 0 to 3 and plaque burden was classified into 0 to 1 or 2 to 3 sites disease. Leukocyte-derived MP level was higher in the presence than in the absence of moderate to high Framingham risk (Pmarkers or atherosclerosis. Leukocyte-derived MP, identified by affinity for CD11a, are increased in subjects with ultrasound evidence of subclinical atherosclerosis, unveiling new directions for atherosclerosis research.

  19. Improved prediction of accessible surface area results in efficient energy function application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Sumaiya; Mishra, Avdesh; Hoque, Md Tamjidul

    2015-09-07

    An accurate prediction of real value accessible surface area (ASA) from protein sequence alone has wide application in the field of bioinformatics and computational biology. ASA has been helpful in understanding the 3-dimensional structure and function of a protein, acting as high impact feature in secondary structure prediction, disorder prediction, binding region identification and fold recognition applications. To enhance and support broad applications of ASA, we have made an attempt to improve the prediction accuracy of absolute accessible surface area by developing a new predictor paradigm, namely REGAd(3)p, for real value prediction through classical Exact Regression with Regularization and polynomial kernel of degree 3 which was further optimized using Genetic Algorithm. ASA assisting effective energy function, motivated us to enhance the accuracy of predicted ASA for better energy function application. Our ASA prediction paradigm was trained and tested using a new benchmark dataset, proposed in this work, consisting of 1001 and 298 protein chains, respectively. We achieved maximum Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) of 0.76 and 1.45% improved PCC when compared with existing top performing predictor, SPINE-X, in ASA prediction on independent test set. Furthermore, we modeled the error between actual and predicted ASA in terms of energy and combined this energy linearly with the energy function 3DIGARS which resulted in an effective energy function, namely 3DIGARS2.0, outperforming all the state-of-the-art energy functions. Based on Rosetta and Tasser decoy-sets 3DIGARS2.0 resulted 80.78%, 73.77%, 141.24%, 16.52%, and 32.32% improvement over DFIRE, RWplus, dDFIRE, GOAP and 3DIGARS respectively. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Method for predicting future developments of traffic noise in urban areas in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salomons, E.; Hout, D. van den; Janssen, S.; Kugler, U.; MacA, V.

    2010-01-01

    Traffic noise in urban areas in Europe is a major environmental stressor. In this study we present a method for predicting how environmental noise can be expected to develop in the future. In the project HEIMTSA scenarios were developed for all relevant environmental stressors to health, for all

  1. Amazon forest carbon dynamics predicted by profiles of canopy leaf area and light environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. C. Stark; V. Leitold; J. L. Wu; M. O. Hunter; C. V. de Castilho; F. R. C. Costa; S. M. McMahon; G. G. Parker; M. Takako Shimabukuro; M. A. Lefsky; M. Keller; L. F. Alves; J. Schietti; Y. E. Shimabukuro; D. O. Brandao; T. K. Woodcock; N. Higuchi; P. B de Camargo; R. C. de Oliveira; S. R. Saleska

    2012-01-01

    Tropical forest structural variation across heterogeneous landscapes may control above-ground carbon dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that canopy structure (leaf area and light availability) – remotely estimated from LiDAR – control variation in above-ground coarse wood production (biomass growth). Using a statistical model, these factors predicted biomass growth...

  2. Prediction of the structural response of the femoral shaft under dynamic loading using subject-specific finite element models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Gwansik; Kim, Taewung; Forman, Jason; Panzer, Matthew B; Crandall, Jeff R

    2017-08-01

    The goal of this study was to predict the structural response of the femoral shaft under dynamic loading conditions using subject-specific finite element (SS-FE) models and to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the models in relation to the model complexity. In total, SS-FE models of 31 femur specimens were developed. Using those models, dynamic three-point bending and combined loading tests (bending with four different levels of axial compression) of bare femurs were simulated, and the prediction capabilities of five different levels of model complexity were evaluated based on the impact force time histories: baseline, mass-based scaled, structure-based scaled, geometric SS-FE, and heterogenized SS-FE models. Among the five levels of model complexity, the geometric SS-FE and the heterogenized SS-FE models showed statistically significant improvement on response prediction capability compared to the other model formulations whereas the difference between two SS-FE models was negligible. This result indicated the geometric SS-FE models, containing detailed geometric information from CT images with homogeneous linear isotropic elastic material properties, would be an optimal model complexity for prediction of structural response of the femoral shafts under the dynamic loading conditions. The average and the standard deviation of the RMS errors of the geometric SS-FE models for all the 31 cases was 0.46 kN and 0.66 kN, respectively. This study highlights the contribution of geometric variability on the structural response variation of the femoral shafts subjected to dynamic loading condition and the potential of geometric SS-FE models to capture the structural response variation of the femoral shafts.

  3. Subjective memory complaints in general practice predicts future dementia: a 4-year follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waldorff, Frans Boch; Vogel, Asmus Mejling; Siersma, Volkert Dirk

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Many older patients in general practice have subjective memory complaints (SMC); however, not all share this information with their general practitioner (GP). The association between SMC and future cognitive decline or dementia is not clear, especially in a general practice population......-nursing home residents aged 65 years and older consulted their GP in October and November 2002, and, when asked, 177 (24%) reported memory problems, and 50 (6.6%) received a hospital-based dementia diagnosis within the 4-years follow-up. SMC had an adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) of 2.27 for subsequent dementia...... independent predictor for subsequent hospital-based dementia diagnosis. Thus, the GP could consider inquiring for memory complaints to identify vulnerable older patients....

  4. Predicting macrobending loss for large-mode area photonic crystal fibres

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Martin D.; Mortensen, Niels Asger; Albertsen, Maja

    2004-01-01

    We report on an easy-to-evaluate expression for the prediction of the bend-loss for a large mode area photonic crystal fiber (PCF) with a triangular air-hole lattice. The expression is based on a recently proposed formulation of the V-parameter for a PCF and contains no free parameters. The valid......We report on an easy-to-evaluate expression for the prediction of the bend-loss for a large mode area photonic crystal fiber (PCF) with a triangular air-hole lattice. The expression is based on a recently proposed formulation of the V-parameter for a PCF and contains no free parameters....... The validity of the expression is verified experimentally for varying fiber parameters as well as bend radius. The typical deviation between the position of the measured and the predicted bend loss edge is within measurement uncertainty....

  5. Early visual responses predict conscious face perception within and between subjects during binocular rivalry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandberg, Kristian; Bahrami, Bahador; Kanai, Ryota

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies indicate that conscious face perception may be related to neural activity in a large time window around 170–800 msec after stimulus presentation, yet in the majority of these studies changes in conscious experience are confounded with changes in physical stimulation. Using...... multivariate classification on MEG data recorded when participants reported changes in conscious perception evoked by binocular rivalry between a face and a grating, we showed that only MEG signals in the 120–320 msec time range, peaking at the M170 around 180 msec and the P2m at around 260 msec, reliably...... predicted conscious experience. Conscious perception could not only be decoded significantly better than chance from the sensors that showed the largest average difference, as previous studies suggest, but also from patterns of activity across groups of occipital sensors that individually were unable...

  6. Prediction of areas where irrigation drainage may induce selenium contamination of water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, R.L.

    1995-01-01

    The U.S. Department of the Interior has investigated 25 areas in the western USA to determine whether irrigation drainage has caused harmful effects on wildlife or has reduced subsequent beneficial uses of the water. A database of chemical analyses of water, sediment, and biota from the 25 areas was created and supplemented with geologic, climatologic, and hydrologic date. The data were evaluated to identify common features among study areas and principal factors that result in Se contamination of water in lakes, ponds, and streams downgradient of irrigated areas. From the analysis of data, a decision tree that use readily available geologic, climatologic, and hydrologic date was derived for use by resource managers as a screening tool to predict the likelihood that irrigation drainage will result in Se contamination in areas of the western USA. Irrigation in areas that are not associated with marine sedimentary rocks of late Cretaceous age is unlikely to cause Se contamination. Irrigation in very arid areas that are associated with these Cretaceous sediments is almost certain to cause Se contamination if the irrigation water drains to terminal lakes and ponds. The likelihood that an area will be contaminated with Se because of irrigation drainage can change, particularly with changes in precipitation. During normal or wet periods, Se contamination may not occur in an area, even though it has seleniferous soils, but reduced water deliveries during a drought in such an area may result in Se contamination.

  7. Visceral Fat Area and Serum Adiponectin Level Predict the Development of Metabolic Syndrome in a Community-Based Asymptomatic Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-A Cho

    Full Text Available Although it has been demonstrated that visceral adipose tissue content and serum levels of adiponectin are associated with metabolic syndrome, their predictive potential for the development of metabolic syndrome remains to be elucidated.We studied 1,130 participants of the Seoul Metabolic Syndrome cohort. A total of 337 subjects without metabolic syndrome underwent the follow-up evaluation and finally analyzed. Visceral fat area (VFA was measured using dual bioelectrical impedance analysis. We compared the 1-year incidence rate of metabolic syndrome among four different groups: Group 1 (high adiponectin level and low VFA, Group 2 (low adiponectin level and low VFA, Group 3 (high adiponectin level and high VFA and Group 4 (low adiponectin level and high VFA.Median follow-up duration was 17 months. Cut-off points of adiponectin level and VFA for metabolic syndrome were 7.34 ng/ml and 84 cm2 for men, and 12.55 and 58 cm2 ng/ml for women, respectively. The incidence of metabolic syndrome was the highest in Group 4 (Group 1; 16.47%, Group 2; 22.08%, Group 3; 25%, and Group 4; 46.15%, p<0.001. Adjusted logistic regression analyses for metabolic syndrome prediction demonstrated that Group 4 exhibited the highest odds ratio compared with Group 1 (4.918 [2.05-11.795], which was predominantly affected by waist circumference and serum triglyceride levels. Notably, triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL ratio was significantly higher in Group 4 (p = 0.017.Incidence rate of metabolic syndrome was the highest in subjects with low serum adiponectin levels and high visceral fat area. Higher TG/HDL ratio in these subjects suggested insulin resistance may contribute to the development of metabolic syndrome.

  8. Model Predictive Load Frequency Control of two-area Interconnected Time Delay Power System with TCSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Yan; Liu, Wenze

    2017-05-01

    In order to reduce the influence of non-linear constraint and time delay on load frequency control of interconnected power system, this paper, based on Model Predictive Control (MPC), designed a load frequency control scheme for two-area interconnected power system with TCSC device. First, considering the Generation Rate Constraint (GRC) and time delay, this paper builds the dynamics model of two-area interconnected power system with Thyristor Controlled Series Compensation device (TCSC). Then the whole system is decomposed into two subsystems. And each subsystem has its own local area MPC controller. Second, collaborative control is implemented by integrating the control information (measurement value, predictive value, etc.) of subsystems’ MPC controllers into the local control goal. In the end, under consideration of physical constraints, the Matlab simulation is conducted. The calculation results showed that the MPC strategy has better dynamic performance and robustness compared to the traditional PI control.

  9. Intra-Rater Reliability of Rehabilitative Ultrasound Imaging for Multifidus Muscles Thickness and Cross Section Area in Healthy Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinifar, Mohammad; Akbari, Asghar; Ghiasi, Fateme

    2015-07-07

    Rehabilitative Ultrasound Imaging (RUSI) must be valuable method for research and rehabilitation. So, the reliability of its measurements must be determined. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the intra-rater reliability of RUSI for measurement of multifidus (MF) muscles cross section areas (CSAs), bladder wall diameter, and thickness of MF muscles between 2 sessions in healthy subjects. Fifteen healthy subjects through simple non-probability sampling participated in this single-group repeated-measures reliability study. MF muscles thickness at rest and during contraction, MF muscles CSAs at rest, and bladder diameters at rest and during pelvic floor muscles (PFM) contraction were measured through RUSI. Pearson's correlation coefficient test was used to determine intra-rater reliability of variables. The results showed that intra-class correlation Coefficient (ICCs) values with 95% confidence interval (CI) and the standard error of the measurement (SEM) were good to excellent agreement for a single investigator between measurement occasions. The intra-rater reliability for the bladder wall displacement was high (ICCs for rest and PFM contraction state: 0.96 and 0.95 respectively), for the MF muscles CSAs at the L4 level was good to high (ICCs 0.75 and 0.91 for right (Rt) and left (Lt) side respectively), and for the thickness of MF muscles at two levels, at rest and during two tasks was moderate to high (ICCs: 0.64 to 0.87). The Trans-Abdominal (TA) method of RUSI is a reliable method to quantify the PFM contraction in healthy subjects. Also, the RUSI is a reliable method to measure the MF muscles CSAs, the MF muscles thickness at rest and during functional tasks in healthy subjects.

  10. Subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition in Hill-type model predicts higher muscle forces in dynamic tasks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline Gerus

    Full Text Available Neuromusculoskeletal models are a common method to estimate muscle forces. Developing accurate neuromusculoskeletal models is a challenging task due to the complexity of the system and large inter-subject variability. The estimation of muscles force is based on the mechanical properties of tendon-aponeurosis complex. Most neuromusculoskeletal models use a generic definition of the tendon-aponeurosis complex based on in vitro test, perhaps limiting their validity. Ultrasonography allows subject-specific estimates of the tendon-aponeurosis complex's mechanical properties. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of subject-specific mechanical properties of the tendon-aponeurosis complex on a neuromusculoskeletal model of the ankle joint. Seven subjects performed isometric contractions from which the tendon-aponeurosis force-strain relationship was estimated. Hopping and running tasks were performed and muscle forces were estimated using subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis and generic tendon properties. Two ultrasound probes positioned over the muscle-tendon junction and the mid-belly were combined with motion capture to estimate the in vivo tendon and aponeurosis strain of the medial head of gastrocnemius muscle. The tendon-aponeurosis force-strain relationship was scaled for the other ankle muscles based on tendon and aponeurosis length of each muscle measured by ultrasonography. The EMG-driven model was calibrated twice - using the generic tendon definition and a subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis force-strain definition. The use of subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition leads to a higher muscle force estimate for the soleus muscle and the plantar-flexor group, and to a better model prediction of the ankle joint moment compared to the model estimate which used a generic definition. Furthermore, the subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition leads to a decoupling behaviour between the muscle fibre and muscle-tendon unit

  11. Leveraging output term co-occurrence frequencies and latent associations in predicting medical subject headings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavuluru, Ramakanth; Lu, Yuan

    2014-11-01

    Trained indexers at the National Library of Medicine (NLM) manually tag each biomedical abstract with the most suitable terms from the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terminology to be indexed by their PubMed information system. MeSH has over 26,000 terms and indexers look at each article's full text while assigning the terms. Recent automated attempts focused on using the article title and abstract text to identify MeSH terms for the corresponding article. Most of these approaches used supervised machine learning techniques that use already indexed articles and the corresponding MeSH terms. In this paper, we present a new indexing approach that leverages term co-occurrence frequencies and latent term associations computed using MeSH term sets corresponding to a set of nearly 18 million articles already indexed with MeSH terms by indexers at NLM. The main goal of our study is to gauge the potential of output label co-occurrences, latent associations, and relationships extracted from free text in both unsupervised and supervised indexing approaches. In this paper, using a novel and purely unsupervised approach, we achieve a micro-F-score that is comparable to those obtained using supervised machine learning techniques. By incorporating term co-occurrence and latent association features into a supervised learning framework, we also improve over the best results published on two public datasets.

  12. A distinct adipose tissue gene expression response to caloric restriction predicts 6-mo weight maintenance in obese subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mutch, D. M.; Pers, Tune Hannes; Temanni, M. R.

    2011-01-01

    AT) gene expression during a low-calorie diet (LCD) could be used to differentiate and predict subjects who experience successful short-term weight maintenance from subjects who experience weight regain. Design: Forty white women followed a dietary protocol consisting of an 8-wk LCD phase followed by a 6...... studied in all individuals before and after the LCD. Energy intake was estimated by using 3-d dietary records. Results: No differences in body weight and fasting insulin were observed between WMs and WRs at baseline or after the LCD period. The LCD resulted in significant decreases in body weight...... and in several plasma variables in both groups. WMs experienced a significant reduction in insulin secretion in response to an oral-glucose-tolerance test after the LCD; in contrast, no changes in insulin secretion were observed in WRs after the LCD. An ANOVA of scAT gene expression showed that genes regulating...

  13. Uric acid predicts mortality and ischaemic stroke in subjects with diastolic dysfunction: the Tromsø Study 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norvik, Jon V; Schirmer, Henrik; Ytrehus, Kirsti; Storhaug, Hilde M; Jenssen, Trond G; Eriksen, Bjørn O; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Wilsgaard, Tom; Solbu, Marit D

    2017-05-01

    To investigate whether serum uric acid predicts adverse outcomes in persons with indices of diastolic dysfunction in a general population. We performed a prospective cohort study among 1460 women and 1480 men from 1994 to 2013. Endpoints were all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident ischaemic stroke. We stratified the analyses by echocardiographic markers of diastolic dysfunction, and uric acid was the independent variable of interest. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated per 59 μmol/L increase in baseline uric acid. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models showed that uric acid predicted all-cause mortality in subjects with E/A ratio 1.5 (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.09, P for interaction between E/A ratio category and uric acid = 0.02). Elevated uric acid increased mortality risk in persons with E-wave deceleration time 220 ms (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.12 and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26, respectively; P for interaction = 0.04). Furthermore, in participants with isovolumetric relaxation time ≤60 ms, mortality risk was higher with increasing uric acid (HR 4.98, 95% CI 2.02-12.26, P for interaction = 0.004). Finally, elevated uric acid predicted ischaemic stroke in subjects with severely enlarged left atria (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.53, P for interaction = 0.047). Increased uric acid was associated with higher all-cause mortality risk in subjects with echocardiographic indices of diastolic dysfunction, and with higher ischaemic stroke risk in persons with severely enlarged left atria.

  14. Predicting self-rated mental and physical health: the contributions of subjective socioeconomic status and personal relative deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callan, Mitchell J; Kim, Hyunji; Matthews, William J

    2015-01-01

    Lower subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) and higher personal relative deprivation (PRD) relate to poorer health. Both constructs concern people's perceived relative social position, but they differ in their emphasis on the reference groups people use to determine their comparative disadvantage (national population vs. similar others) and the importance of resentment that may arise from such adverse comparisons. We investigated the relative utility of SSS and PRD as predictors of self-rated physical and mental health (e.g., self-rated health, stress, health complaints). Across six studies, self-rated physical and mental health were on the whole better predicted by measures of PRD than by SSS while controlling for objective socioeconomic status (SES), with SSS rarely contributing unique variance over and above PRD and SES. Studies 4-6 discount the possibility that the superiority of PRD over SSS in predicting health is due to psychometric differences (e.g., reliability) or response biases between the measures.

  15. Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading. Volume 2, Part 1; Appendices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O.; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approximately 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

  16. Habitual sleep durations and subjective sleep quality predict white matter differences in the human brain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakh Khalsa

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Self-imposed short sleep durations are increasingly commonplace in society, and have considerable health and performance implications for individuals. Reduced sleep duration over multiple nights has similar behavioural effects to those observed following acute total sleep deprivation, suggesting that lack of sleep affects brain function cumulatively. A link between habitual sleep patterns and functional connectivity has previously been observed, and the effect of sleep duration on the brain's intrinsic functional architecture may provide a link between sleep status and cognition. However, it is currently not known whether differences in habitual sleep patterns across individuals are related to changes in the brain's white matter, which underlies structural connectivity. In the present study we use diffusion–weighted imaging and a group comparison application of tract based spatial statistics (TBSS to investigate changes to fractional anisotropy (FA and mean diffusivity (MD in relation to sleep duration and quality, hypothesising that white matter metrics would be positively associated with sleep duration and quality. Diffusion weighted imaging data was acquired from a final cohort of 33 (23–29 years, 10 female, mean 25.4 years participants. Sleep patterns were assessed for a 14 day period using wrist actigraphs and sleep diaries, and subjective sleep quality with the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI. Median splits based on total sleep time and PSQI were used to create groups of shorter/longer and poorer/better sleepers, whose imaging data was compared using TBSS followed by post-hoc correlation analysis in regions identified as significantly different between the groups. There were significant positive correlations between sleep duration and FA in the left orbito-frontal region and the right superior corona radiata, and significant negative correlations between sleep duration and MD in right orbito-frontal white matter and the right

  17. Development and validation of a subject-specific finite element model of the functional spinal unit to predict vertebral strength.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chu-Hee; Landham, Priyan R; Eastell, Richard; Adams, Michael A; Dolan, Patricia; Yang, Lang

    2017-09-01

    Finite element models of an isolated vertebral body cannot accurately predict compressive strength of the spinal column because, in life, compressive load is variably distributed across the vertebral body and neural arch. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a patient-specific finite element model of a functional spinal unit, and then use the model to predict vertebral strength from medical images. A total of 16 cadaveric functional spinal units were scanned and then tested mechanically in bending and compression to generate a vertebral wedge fracture. Before testing, an image processing and finite element analysis framework (SpineVox-Pro), developed previously in MATLAB using ANSYS APDL, was used to generate a subject-specific finite element model with eight-node hexahedral elements. Transversely isotropic linear-elastic material properties were assigned to vertebrae, and simple homogeneous linear-elastic properties were assigned to the intervertebral disc. Forward bending loading conditions were applied to simulate manual handling. Results showed that vertebral strengths measured by experiment were positively correlated with strengths predicted by the functional spinal unit finite element model with von Mises or Drucker-Prager failure criteria ( R 2  = 0.80-0.87), with areal bone mineral density measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry ( R 2  = 0.54) and with volumetric bone mineral density from quantitative computed tomography ( R 2  = 0.79). Large-displacement non-linear analyses on all specimens did not improve predictions. We conclude that subject-specific finite element models of a functional spinal unit have potential to estimate the vertebral strength better than bone mineral density alone.

  18. Prediction of soft soil foundation settlement in Guangxi granite area based on fuzzy neural network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Junhui; Wu, Chao; Liu, Xianlin; Mi, Decai; Zeng, Fuquan; Zeng, Yongjun

    2018-01-01

    At present, the prediction of soft foundation settlement mostly use the exponential curve and hyperbola deferred approximation method, and the correlation between the results is poor. However, the application of neural network in this area has some limitations, and none of the models used in the existing cases adopted the TS fuzzy neural network of which calculation combines the characteristics of fuzzy system and neural network to realize the mutual compatibility methods. At the same time, the developed and optimized calculation program is convenient for engineering designers. Taking the prediction and analysis of soft foundation settlement of gully soft soil in granite area of Guangxi Guihe road as an example, the fuzzy neural network model is established and verified to explore the applicability. The TS fuzzy neural network is used to construct the prediction model of settlement and deformation, and the corresponding time response function is established to calculate and analyze the settlement of soft foundation. The results show that the prediction of short-term settlement of the model is accurate and the final settlement prediction result has certain engineering reference value.

  19. Functional connectivity between somatosensory and motor brain areas predicts individual differences in motor learning by observing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGregor, Heather R; Gribble, Paul L

    2017-08-01

    Action observation can facilitate the acquisition of novel motor skills; however, there is considerable individual variability in the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. Here we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in brain function or structure can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Subjects underwent an anatomical MRI scan and resting-state fMRI scans to assess preobservation gray matter volume and preobservation resting-state functional connectivity (FC), respectively. On the following day, subjects observed a video of a tutor adapting her reaches to a novel force field. After observation, subjects performed reaches in a force field as a behavioral assessment of gains in motor learning resulting from observation. We found that individual differences in resting-state FC, but not gray matter volume, predicted postobservation gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state FC between left primary somatosensory cortex and bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, primary motor cortex, and primary somatosensory cortex and left superior parietal lobule was positively correlated with behavioral measures of postobservation motor learning. Sensory-motor resting-state FC can thus predict the extent to which observation will promote subsequent motor learning.NEW & NOTEWORTHY We show that individual differences in preobservation brain function can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state functional connectivity within a sensory-motor network may be used as a biomarker for the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. This kind of information may be useful if observation is to be used as a way to boost neuroplasticity and sensory-motor recovery for patients undergoing rehabilitation for diseases that impair movement such as stroke. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  20. Can subjective global assessment of nutritional status predict survival in ovarian cancer?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gupta Digant

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malnutrition is a significant problem in patients with ovarian cancer. The goal of this study was to investigate the prognostic role of Subjective Global Assessment (SGA in patients with ovarian cancer treated in an integrative cancer treatment setting. Methods We evaluated a case series of 132 ovarian cancer patients treated at Cancer Treatment Centers of America® from Jan 2001 to May 2006. SGA was used to assess nutritional status at baseline. Using SGA, patients were classified as well nourished (SGA A, moderately malnourished (SGA B or severely malnourished (SGA C. Kaplan Meier method was used to calculate survival. Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to evaluate the prognostic effect of SGA independent of other factors. Results Of 132 patients, 24 were newly diagnosed while 108 had received prior treatment. 15 had stage I disease at diagnosis, 8 stage II, 85 stage III and 17 stage IV. The median age at presentation was 54.4 years (range 25.5 – 82.5 years. 66 patients were well-nourished (SGA A, 35 moderately malnourished (SGA B and 31 severely malnourished (SGA C. Well nourished patients had a median survival of 19.3 months (95% CI: 14.1 to 24.5, moderately malnourished 15.5 months (95% CI: 5.8 to 25.1, and severely malnourished 6.7 months (95% CI: 4.1 to 9.3; the difference being statistically significant (p = 0.0003. Multivariate Cox modeling, after adjusting for stage at diagnosis and prior treatment history found that moderately malnourished and severely malnourished status were associated with a relative risk of 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 to 3.6, p = 0.008 and 3.4 (95% CI: 1.9 to 5.8, p Conclusion Univariate and multivariate survival analyses found that low SGA scores (i.e. well-nourished status are associated with better survival outcomes. This study lends support to the role of aggressive nutritional intervention in improving patient outcomes in cancer care.

  1. Interval estimation for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when data are subject to error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanhong; Koval, John J; Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

    2010-10-30

    The area (A) under the receiver operating characteristic curve is commonly used to quantify the ability of a biomarker to correctly classify individuals into two populations. However, many markers are subject to measurement error, which must be accounted for to prevent understating their effectiveness. In this paper, we develop a new confidence interval procedure for A which is adjusted for measurement error using either external or internal replicated measurements. Based on the observation that A is a function of normal means and variances, we develop the procedure by recovering variance estimates needed from confidence limits for normal means and variances. Simulation results show that the procedure performs better than the previous ones based on the delta-method in terms of coverage percentage, balance of tail errors and interval width. Two examples are presented. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Risk assessment predictions of open dumping area after closure using Monte Carlo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauzi, Nur Irfah Mohd; Radhi, Mohd Shahril Mat; Omar, Husaini

    2017-10-01

    Currently, there are many abandoned open dumping areas that were left without any proper mitigation measures. These open dumping areas could pose serious hazard to human and pollute the environment. The objective of this paper is to determine the risk assessment at the open dumping area after they has been closed using Monte Carlo Simulation method. The risk assessment exercise is conducted at the Kuala Lumpur dumping area. The rapid urbanisation of Kuala Lumpur coupled with increase in population lead to increase in waste generation. It leads to more dumping/landfill area in Kuala Lumpur. The first stage of this study involve the assessment of the dumping area and samples collections. It followed by measurement of settlement of dumping area using oedometer. The risk of the settlement is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation method. Monte Carlo simulation calculates the risk and the long-term settlement. The model simulation result shows that risk level of the Kuala Lumpur open dumping area ranges between Level III to Level IV i.e. between medium risk to high risk. These settlement (ΔH) is between 3 meters to 7 meters. Since the risk is between medium to high, it requires mitigation measures such as replacing the top waste soil with new sandy gravel soil. This will increase the strength of the soil and reduce the settlement.

  3. A case study of full integration of the arts into core subject area instruction in one East Texas secondary school

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leysath, Maggie

    This exploratory phenomenological case study investigated the influence the full integration of the arts into core subject instruction has on classroom environment, student academic achievement, and student engagement as perceived by administrators, teachers, and students in one East Texas secondary school. Participant interviews were analyzed using Creswell's (2012) six-step method for analyzing phenomenological studies. The researcher implemented three learning activities in which ceramics learning objectives were fully integrated with chemistry learning objectives. The first activity combined clay properties and pottery wheel throwing with significant numbers. The second activity combined glaze formulation with moles. The third combined stoichiometry with the increased glaze formula for students to glaze the bowls they made. Findings suggest the full integration of art in core subject area instruction has numerous positive effects. Participants reported improved academic achievement for all students including reluctant learners. Students, teachers, and the administrator reported greater participation in the art integrated activities. Participants perceived a need for further training for teachers and administrators for greater success.

  4. Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Marc

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area. This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.

  5. Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels

    2017-07-01

    We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.

  6. Prediction of periodontopathic bacteria in dental plaque of periodontal healthy subjects by measurement of volatile sulfur compounds in mouth air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishi, Mitsuo; Ohara-Nemoto, Yuko; Takahashi, Masahiro; Kishi, Kayo; Kimura, Shigenobu; Aizawa, Fumie; Yonemitsu, Masami

    2013-03-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether measurements of volatile sulfur compounds (VSCs) are useful to predict colonization of periodontopathic bacteria. For this purpose, we assessed the relationships among distributions of 4 species of periodontopathic bacteria in tongue coating and dental plaque, oral conditions including VSC concentration in mouth air, and smoking habit of periodontal healthy young subjects. The subjects were 108 young adults (mean age, 23.5±2.56 years) without clinical periodontal pockets. Information regarding smoking habit was obtained by interview. After VSC concentration in mouth, air was measured with a portable sulfide monitor (Halimeter(®)), non-stimulated saliva flow and dental caries status were assessed, and tongue coating and dental plaque samples were collected from the subjects. The tongue coating samples were weighed to determine the amount. The colonization of Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythia, Prevotella intermedia, and Treponema denticola in both tongue coating and plaque samples was investigated using species-specific polymerase chain reaction assays. Significant relationships were observed between the colonization of periodontopathic bacteria in tongue coating and plaque samples, especially that of P. gingivalis. VSC concentration showed the most significant association with colonization of P. gingivalis in both tongue coating and dental plaque. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the adjusted partial correlation coefficient [Exp(B)] values for VSC concentration with the colonization of P. gingivalis, P. intermedia, and T. denticola in dental plaque were 135, 35.4 and 10.4, respectively. In addition, smoking habit was also shown to be a significant variable in regression models [Exp(B)=6.19, 8.92 and 2.53, respectively]. Therefore, receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to predict the colonization of periodontal bacteria in dental plaque in the subjects divided by smoking

  7. Total Hip Bone Area Affects Fracture Prediction With FRAX® in Canadian White Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Majumdar, Sumit R; Morin, Suzanne N; Johansson, Helena; Odén, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V; Kanis, John A

    2017-11-01

    Areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurements are confounded by skeletal size. Hip BMD is an input to the FRAX® tool (Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom), but it is unknown whether performance is affected by hip area. To examine whether fracture prediction by FRAX® is affected by hip area. Cohort study using a population-based BMD registry. A total of 58,108 white women aged ≥40 years. Incident major osteoporotic fracture (MOF; n = 4913) and hip fracture (n = 1369), stratified by total hip area quintile, before and after adjustment for hip axis length (HAL). Smaller hip area was associated with younger age and lower FRAX® scores, whereas incident fractures were greater in those with larger hip area (P for trend hip area quintile increased risk for MOF and hip fracture when adjusted for FRAX® score with BMD (P for trend hip area was associated with greater risk for incident MOF [adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05 to 1.11] and hip fracture (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.21), but not after adjustment for HAL. FRAX® with BMD underestimated MOF risk in the largest hip area quintile and underestimated hip fracture risk in the three largest hip area quintiles. In Canadian white women, skeletal size based on hip area affects fracture risk assessment based on FRAX® score with BMD, with risk underestimated in those with larger hip areas. Including HAL in the risk assessment compensates for this confounding by skeletal size and provides for more accurate assessment of fracture risk.

  8. Reading a suspenseful literary text activates brain areas related to social cognition and predictive inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moritz Lehne

    Full Text Available Stories can elicit powerful emotions. A key emotional response to narrative plots (e.g., novels, movies, etc. is suspense. Suspense appears to build on basic aspects of human cognition such as processes of expectation, anticipation, and prediction. However, the neural processes underlying emotional experiences of suspense have not been previously investigated. We acquired functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data while participants read a suspenseful literary text (E.T.A. Hoffmann's "The Sandman" subdivided into short text passages. Individual ratings of experienced suspense obtained after each text passage were found to be related to activation in the medial frontal cortex, bilateral frontal regions (along the inferior frontal sulcus, lateral premotor cortex, as well as posterior temporal and temporo-parietal areas. The results indicate that the emotional experience of suspense depends on brain areas associated with social cognition and predictive inference.

  9. Reading a suspenseful literary text activates brain areas related to social cognition and predictive inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehne, Moritz; Engel, Philipp; Rohrmeier, Martin; Menninghaus, Winfried; Jacobs, Arthur M; Koelsch, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Stories can elicit powerful emotions. A key emotional response to narrative plots (e.g., novels, movies, etc.) is suspense. Suspense appears to build on basic aspects of human cognition such as processes of expectation, anticipation, and prediction. However, the neural processes underlying emotional experiences of suspense have not been previously investigated. We acquired functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data while participants read a suspenseful literary text (E.T.A. Hoffmann's "The Sandman") subdivided into short text passages. Individual ratings of experienced suspense obtained after each text passage were found to be related to activation in the medial frontal cortex, bilateral frontal regions (along the inferior frontal sulcus), lateral premotor cortex, as well as posterior temporal and temporo-parietal areas. The results indicate that the emotional experience of suspense depends on brain areas associated with social cognition and predictive inference.

  10. An anthropometric based subject-specific finite element model of the human breast for predicting large deformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia ePianigiani

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The large deformation of the human breast threatens proper nodules tracking when the subject mammograms are used as pre-planning data for biopsy. However, techniques capable of accurately supporting the surgeons during biopsy are missing. Finite Element (FE models are at the basis of currently investigated methodologies to track nodules displacement. Nonetheless, the impact of breast material modeling on the mechanical response of its tissues (e.g. tumors is not clear. This study proposes a subject-specific FE model of the breast, obtained by anthropometric measurements, to predict breast large deformation. A healthy breast subject-specific FE parametric model was developed and validated by Cranio-caudal (CC and Medio Lateral Oblique (MLO mammograms. The model was successively modified, including nodules, and utilized to investigate the effect of nodules size, typology and material modeling on nodules shift under the effect of CC, MLO and gravity loads. Results show that a Mooney-Rivlin material model can estimate healthy breast large deformation. For a pathological breast, under CC compression, the nodules displacement is very close to zero when a linear elastic material model is used. Finally, when nodules are modeled including tumor material properties, under CC or MLO or gravity loads, nodules shift shows ∼15% average relative difference.

  11. The additional benefit of weighted subjective global assessment (SGA) for the predictability of mortality in incident peritoneal dialysis patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Taeyoung; Ko, Ye Eun; Kim, Seung-Jung; Kang, Duk-Hee; Choi, Kyu Bok; Oh, Hyung Jung; Ryu, Dong-Ryeol

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Although subjective global assessment (SGA) is a widely used tool for nutritional investigation, the scores are dependent on the inspectors’ subjective opinions, and there are only few studies that directly assessed the usefulness of SGA and modified SGA in incident peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. A total of 365 incident PD patients between 2009 and 2015 were enrolled and measured with SGA and calculated using serum albumin and total iron binding capacity (TIBC) levels for weighted SGA. Cox analyses were performed to delineate the association between SGA or weighted SGA and all-cause mortality, and a receiver-operating characteristic was conducted to reveal the additional benefit of weighted SGA on predicting adverse clinical outcomes. The Kaplan–Meier curve showed that the cumulative survival rate in patients with “Good nutrition” (G1) was significantly higher compared to those with “Mild to severe malnutrition” (G2). G2 was significantly associated with an increase in the mortality even after adjusting for several covariates compared with G1. Moreover, a 1-unit increase in weighted SGA was also significantly correlated with mortality after adjustment of the same covariates, while G2 was not significantly associated with an increase in the mortality among young-aged (under 65 years) groups. Meanwhile, a 1-unit increase in weighted SGA was significantly related to an increase in mortality in all the subgroup analyses. Furthermore, the AUCs of weighted SGAs in all groups were significantly increased compared with those of SGA alone. In conclusions, the evaluation of nutritional status based on SGA in incident PD patients might be useful for predicting mortality. However, weighted SGA with serum albumin and TIBC can provide additional predictive power for mortality compared with SGA alone in incident PD patients. PMID:29095278

  12. A System Dynamics Model to Predict Municipal Waste Generation and Management Costs in Developing Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Al-Khatib, I.A.; Eleyan, D.; Garfield, Joy

    2015-01-01

    This paper utilized system dynamics modeling as a new analytical approach to predict both the municipal waste generated and the associated disposal costs in developing areas. This approach facilitates the decomposition of general waste into its main components to enable municipalities to manage recyclables and find out the feasibility of performing recycling better rather than disposal by performing comparative disposal cost analysis. This study is different from previous work as it only cons...

  13. Early altered resting-state functional connectivity predicts the severity of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms in acutely traumatized subjects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Zhou

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the relationship between resting-state functional connectivity and the severity of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD symptoms in 15 people who developed PTSD following recent trauma. Fifteen participants who experienced acute traumatic events underwent a 7.3-min resting functional magnetic resonance imaging scan within 2 days post-event. All the patients were diagnosed with PTSD within 1 to 6 months after trauma. Brain areas in which activity was correlated with that of the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC were assessed. To assess the relationship between the severity of PTSD symptoms and PCC connectivity, contrast images representing areas positively correlated with the PCC were correlated with the subject's Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale scores (CAPS when they were diagnosed. Furthermore, the PCC, medial prefrontal cortex and bilateral amygdala were selected to assess the correlation of the strength of functional connectivity with the CAPS. Resting state connectivity with the PCC was negatively correlated with CAPS scores in the left superior temporal gyrus and right hippocampus/amygdala. Furthermore, the strength of connectivity between the PCC and bilateral amygdala, and even between the bilateral amygdala could predict the severity of PTSD symptoms later. These results suggest that early altered resting-state functional connectivity of the PCC with the left superior temporal gyrus, right hippocampus and amygdala could predict the severity of the disease and may be a major risk factor that predisposes patients to develop PTSD.

  14. Structure and predictive skill of strong northeasterly wind events using a limited area numerical weather prediction model at Iqaluit, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Hanesiak

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Strong northeasterly wind events are infrequent over Baffin Island, but are potentially hazardous for aviation and the local community of Iqaluit (the capital of Nunavut, Canada. Three strong northeasterly wind events in this region are examined in this study, using the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale-Limited Area Model (GEM-LAM with a horizontal grid spacing of 2.5 km; in-situ observations; and reanalysis data. The skill of the GEM-LAM in simulating these events is examined. With the exception of one event, the GEM-LAM was successful at predicting the large-scale flow in terms of the circulation pattern, timing of the synoptic set-up and the low-level flow over the Hall Peninsula. The onset and cessation of strong winds and timing of major wind shifts was typically well handled by the model to within ~3 h, but with a tendency to underestimate the peak wind speed. The skill of the surface wind forecasts at Iqaluit is critically dependent on the predicted timing and location of the hydraulic jump and the grid point selected to represent Iqaluit. Examination of the observed and modelled data suggest that the strong northeasterly wind events have several features in common: (1 strong gradient-driven flow across the Hall Peninsula, (2 mean-state critical layer (or reverse shear over the Hall Peninsula, (3 a low-level inversion, typically above the maximum barrier height immediately upstream of the Hall Peninsula, (4 subcritical flow, typically present upstream of the Hall Peninsula and (5 a hydraulic jump in the vicinity of Frobisher Bay. The modelled atmospheric conditions upwind of the Hall Peninsula immediately prior to the formation of the hydraulic jump (and acceleration of winds over the lee slope are largely consistent with the prediction of propagating hydraulic jumps presented in the literature.

  15. The response of teachers to new subject areas in a national science curriculum: The case of the earth science component

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Chris

    2001-11-01

    The National Curriculum for Science (NCS) introduced to schools in England and Wales in 1989 contained an earth science component that was new to many secondary science teachers. Ten years after this introduction, a survey was undertaken to test teacher perception of the effectiveness of their teaching in this subject area that was new to them, and to identify factors that might affect this effectiveness. The information gained has been used in reviewing possible curriculum changes and in developing professional development strategies that would improve the effectiveness of NCS earth science teaching. The data collected from science teachers who are currently teaching this earth science component revealed that their background knowledge of earth science from their own education was generally poor, even though most of them considered their knowledge to be moderate. The teachers indicated that the achievement of their pupils in earth science is moderate, while reports on national testing show it is poor. They reported that their main sources of earth science knowledge and understanding were science textbooks written for 11- to 16-year-old pupils (with their small earth science content of variable quality) and science colleagues (who often have poor earth science backgrounds too). Most teachers indicated that they needed more support in this area. Overall, the data indicated that while teachers consider their teaching in this area to be moderate, other evidence suggests it is poor. If this situation is not to continue it should be addressed. In the longer term the emphasis on the earth science content of the National Science Curriculum could be changed (either enhanced or reduced) within larger scale curriculum changes. Until such curriculum change takes place, effective methods of professional development should be instituted so that teachers have a much improved basis on which to build their earth science teaching. Similar measures would be necessary in other

  16. The Measurement of Relevance Amount of Documents That By Using of Google cross-language retrieval About Agriculture Subject Area are Retrieved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Jamshidi Ghahfarokhi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the relevance amount of documents has been investigated by using google cross-language retrieval tools about a agriculture subject area in cross-language retrieval form, are retrieved. For this purpose, by using Persian journals articles that have had English abstracts, Persian phrases and subject terms with their English equivalent were extracted. In three class us, thirty number of phrases and subject terms of agriculture area were extracted: First class, subject phrases that only in agriculture are used; Secondary, agriculture subject terms that in other fields are used too; Third class, agriculture subject terms that out of this field are considered as public term. Then by these phrases and terms, documents were searched, and relevance amount of search results are investigated. Results of study showed that google cross-language retrieval tools for two classes of phrases and terms, in cross-language retrieval of relevance document about agriculture subject area, aren`t succeed: one class, agriculture subject terms that in other fields are used too. other class, agriculture subject terms that out of agriculture field are considered as public term. Google cross-language retrieval tools about subject phrase and terms that only in agriculture field are used, are performance rather desirable than other two class of phrase and terms

  17. Supratentorial gliomas in eloquent areas: which parameters can predict functional outcome and extent of resection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giannantonio Spena

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To date, few parameters have been found that can aid in patient selection and surgical strategy for eloquent area gliomas. AIMS: The aim of the study was to analyze preoperative and intraoperative factors that can predict functional outcome and extent of resection in eloquent area tumors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 60 patients harboring supratentorial gliomas in eloquent areas undergoing awake surgery. The analysis considered clinical, neuroradiologic (morphologic, intraoperative, and postoperative factors. End-points were extent of resection (EOR as well as functional short- and long-term outcome. Postoperatively, MRI objectively established the EOR. χ(2 analyses were used to evaluate parameters that could be predictive. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the best combination to predict binary positive outcomes. RESULTS: In 90% of the cases, subcortical stimulation was positive in the margins of the surgical cavity. Postoperatively, 51% of the patients deteriorated but 90% of the patients regained their preoperative neurological score. Factors negatively affecting EOR were volume, degree of subcortical infiltration, and presence of paresis (P<0.01. Sharp margins and cystic components were more amenable to gross total resection (P<0.01. Contrast enhancement (P<0.02, higher grade (P<0.01, paresis (P<0.01, and residual tumor in the cortex (P<0.02 negatively affected long-term functional outcomes, whereas postoperative deterioration could not be predicted for any factor other than paresis. Subcortical stimulation did not correlate with deterioration, both postoperatively (P<0.08 and at follow-up (P<0.042. CONCLUSIONS: Biological and morphological factors such as type of margins, volume, preoperative neurological status, cystic components, histology and the type of infiltration into the white matter must be considered when planning intraoperative mapping.

  18. Ground motion prediction from nearest seismogenic zones in and around Greater Cairo Area, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the likely source characteristics, focal source mechanism and fault patterns of the nearest effective seismogenic zones to Greater Cairo Area. Furthermore, Mmax and ground accelerations related to the effective seismic events expected in future from those seismogenic zones are well evaluated. For this purpose, the digital waveform of earthquakes than ML=3 that occurred in and around Greater Cairo Area from 1997 to 2008 which have been recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network, are used to study source characterization, focal mechanism and fault pattern of the seismogenic zones around Greater Cairo Area. The ground motions are predicted from seismogenic zones to assess seismic hazard in the northeastern part of Greater Cairo, where three effective seismogenic zones, namely Abou Zabul, southeast Cairo trend and Dahshour area, have the largest effect to the Greater Cairo Area. The Mmax was determined, based upon an empirical relationship between the seismic moment and the rupture length of the fault during the earthquake. The estimated Mmax expected from Abou Zabul, southeast Cairo trend, Dahshour seismic sources are of Mw magnitudes equal to 5.4, 5.1, and 6.5, respectively. The predominant fundamental frequency and soil amplification characteristics at the area were obtained using boreholes data and in-situ ambient noise measurement.

  19. Cytogenetic analysis chromosomal status of subjects from the regions in the vicinity of uranium-contaminated areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jovicic, D.; Milacie, S.; Kovacevic, R.; Petrovic, I.

    2004-07-01

    The past application of nuclear technology has brought about free emission of numerous Due to the military application of the depleted uranium (DU) in our country, the problem of its radioactivity and hemo toxicity if actualized. Likewise every heavy metal, its is highly toxic and, in addition to it, also radioactive: Interaction of the water-soluble uranium forms with soil is an important effect. In this way, it penetrates into food chain and endangers human health. The study was aimed at determining possible karyotype genotoxic effects in individuals from the regions close to the contaminated areas. Biological dosimetry was performed using modified Moorthead's micromethod. Our studies included the targeted group of 29 patients from the affected regions. The subjects were averagely aged 39.5{+-}2.8 years. Average age of the control group (k), unexposed to the effects of the known genotoxic agents comprising 22 individuals was 28.3{+-}1.2 years. The presented data evidenced that increased incidence of the chromosomal aberrations was found in 6 subjects,accounting for 20.6%. Dicentric type changes were evidence, as well ring chromosomes and eccentric fragments, which are, at the same time the most frequent aberrations. The changes are considered reparable aberrations accounting for 2-3% in metaphases of the unexposed individuals. Statistical data processing evidenced significant difference (p<0.005) between structural chromosomal aberrations in the studied and control groups, as well as in the number of chromatid aberrations (p<0.05).Based on the obtained data it may be concluded that human karyotype changes were present in the studied group, resulting from interaction of ionizing irradiation and other genotoxic agents, with possibility of potent synergistic effects. It is necessary to stress the importance of further monitoring and control of the general population health, particularly due to possible late genetic effects that may affect future generations

  20. Broca's region and Visual Word Form Area activation differ during a predictive Stroop task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallentin, Mikkel; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg; Skakkebæk, Anne

    2015-12-01

    Competing theories attempt to explain the function of Broca's area in single word processing. Studies have found the region to be more active during processing of pseudo words than real words and during infrequent words relative to frequent words and during Stroop (incongruent) color words compared to Non-Stroop (congruent) words. Two related theories explain these findings as reflecting either "cognitive control" processing in the face of conflicting input or a linguistic prediction error signal, based on a predictive coding approach. The latter implies that processing cost refers to violations of expectations based on the statistical distributions of input. In this fMRI experiment we attempted to disentangle single word processing cost originating from cognitive conflict and that stemming from predictive expectation violation. Participants (N = 49) responded to whether the words "GREEN" or "RED" were displayed in green or red (incongruent vs congruent colors). One of the colors, however, was presented three times as often as the other, making it possible to study both congruency and frequency effects independently. Auditory stimuli saying "GREEN" or "RED" had the same distribution, making it possible to study frequency effects across modalities. We found significant behavioral effects of both incongruency and frequency. A significant effect (p Broca's region, but no effect of frequency was observed and no interaction. Conjoined effects of incongruency and frequency were found in parietal regions as well as in the Visual Word Form Area (VWFA). No interaction between perceptual modality and frequency was found in VWFA suggesting that the region is not strictly visual. These findings speak against a strong version of the prediction error processing hypothesis in Broca's region. They support the idea that prediction error processes in the intermediate timeframe are allocated to more posterior parts of the brain. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The Measurement of Relevance Amount of Documents That By Using of Google cross-language retrieval About Agriculture Subject Area are Retrieved

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fatemeh Jamshidi Ghahfarokhi

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the relevance amount of documents has been investigated by using google cross-language retrieval tools about a agriculture subject area in cross-language retrieval form, are retrieved...

  2. Predicting the Impact of Urban Green Areas on Microclimate Changes of Mashhad Residential Areas during the Hottest Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    zahra karimian

    2017-02-01

    between receptors was obtained at 13 hour. The trend of relative humidity changes was very similar in both residential sites. In these two sites the most differences in the relative humidity was obtained at 12 oclock.. In addition, the trend of Predicted Mean Vote (PMV in Andisheh residential block showed that these changes in central and south-west part of the site were similar. The simulation with vegetation in the sites, also, showed that the trend of temperature and relative humidity changes were similar. The trends of temperature changes in residential site, Hesabi, in the defined receptors were very similar. So that temperature increased from 12 oclock to 15. While the trend of relative humidity changes was quite the reverse. This study results showed that the difference in temperature, relative humidity and PMV between measured and simulated data were minimal in both residential sites. Moreover, the data comparison of PMV indicated that in both residential sites, despite of simulation with vegetation, the human thermal comfort did not improve, so that these sites were in the range of extreme heat stress. There are several reasons to justify this issue, such as the percentage and the type of vegetation, factors related to the topography and geography of area, building distribution and density, type and color of the building materials and surfaces, etc. However, in this part of the study, other factors were constant, except vegetation. It seems that with increase of percentage and the ratio of vegetation, changes in temperature, relative humidity and other micro-climate factors, are created, but sometimes for the reasons stated, the temperature during the hottest period of the year is too high so that increase in vegetation will have little impact on outdoor thermal comfort. It might be the simulated area on these sites as well as the type and the ratio of the selected species to reduce the temperature and increase the relative humidity have been not adequately

  3. Interaction between physiological and subjective states predicts the effect of a judging panel on the postures of cellists in performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi eEndo

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of a panel of judges on the movements and postures of cellists in performance. 24 expert cellists played a short piece of music, to a metronome beat, in the presence and absence of the panel. Kinematic analyses showed that in the presence of the panel the temporal execution of left arm shifting movements became less variable and closer to the metronome beat. In contrast, the panel's presence had no reliable effect on their spatial accuracy. A detailed postural analysis indicated that left elbow angle during execution of a given high note was correlated with level of heart rate, though the nature of this correlation was systematically affected by the relevant participant's subjective state: if anxious, a higher heart rate correlated with a more flexed elbow, if not anxious then with a more extended elbow. Our results suggest a change in physiological state alone does not reliably predict a change in behaviour in performing cellists, which instead depends on the interaction between physiological state and subjective experience of anxiety. This highlights a need to distinguish performance anxiety from physiological arousal, to which end we advocate currency for the specific term performance arousal to describe heightened physiological activity in a performer.

  4. [Psychosocial stressors, sense of community, and subjective wellbeing in children and adolescents in urban and rural areas in Northeast Brazil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abreu, Desirée Pereira de; Viñas, Ferran; Casas, Ferran; Montserrat, Carme; González-Carrasco, Mònica; Alcantara, Stefania Carneiro de

    2016-09-19

    The study's overall objective was to investigate the relationship between psychosocial stressors, sense of community, and subjective wellbeing in urban and rural schoolchildren in Northeast Brazil, focusing on differences according to territorial context. The sample consisted of 757 participants, 495 from urban schools and 262 from rural schools, enrolled in the 6th and 7th grades (9 to 18 years of age) in 21 municipal and state public schools, of which 13 urban and 8 rural, in 7 municipalities (counties) in Ceará State, Brazil. The study instruments were inventory of stressful events, scale of life satisfaction for students, index of sense of community, and satisfaction indices by life domains (family, material goods, relations, neighborhood/zone, health, time, school, and personal). The results indicate that socioeconomically underprivileged public schoolchildren from urban areas are more exposed to daily stress and score lower on satisfaction in specific domains of life and on sense of community. This latter is an important indicator for evaluating wellbeing in this young population.

  5. Predicting Self-Rated Mental and Physical Health: The Contributions of Subjective Socioeconomic Status and Personal Relative Deprivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitchell J. Callan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Lower subjective socioeconomic status (SSS and higher personal relative deprivation (PRD relate to poorer health. Both constructs concern people’s perceived relative social position, but they differ in their emphasis on the reference groups people use to determine their comparative disadvantage (national population vs. similar others and the importance of resentment that may arise from such adverse comparisons. We investigated the relative utility of SSS and PRD as predictors of self-rated physical and mental health (e.g., self-rated health, stress, health complaints. Across 6 studies, self-rated physical and mental health were on the whole better predicted by measures of PRD than by SSS while controlling for objective socioeconomic status (SES, with SSS rarely contributing unique variance over and above PRD and SES. Studies 4 to 6 discount the possibility that the superiority of PRD over SSS in predicting health is due to psychometric differences (e.g., reliability or response biases between the measures.

  6. Evaluation of accessible mineral surface areas for improved prediction of mineral reaction rates in porous media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckingham, Lauren E.; Steefel, Carl I.; Swift, Alexander M.; Voltolini, Marco; Yang, Li; Anovitz, Lawrence M.; Sheets, Julia M.; Cole, David R.; Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Mitnick, Elizabeth H.; Zhang, Shuo; Landrot, Gautier; Ajo-Franklin, Jonathan B.; DePaolo, Donald J.; Mito, Saeko; Xue, Ziqiu

    2017-05-01

    The rates of mineral dissolution reactions in porous media are difficult to predict, in part because of a lack of understanding of mineral reactive surface area in natural porous media. Common estimates of mineral reactive surface area used in reactive transport models for porous media are typically ad hoc and often based on average grain size, increased to account for surface roughness or decreased by several orders of magnitude to account for reduced surface reactivity of field as opposed to laboratory samples. In this study, accessible mineral surface areas are determined for a sample from the reservoir formation at the Nagaoka pilot CO2 injection site (Japan) using a multi-scale image analysis based on synchrotron X-ray microCT, SEM QEMSCAN, XRD, SANS, and FIB-SEM. This analysis not only accounts for accessibility of mineral surfaces to macro-pores, but also accessibility through connected micro-pores in smectite, the most abundant clay mineral in this sample. While the imaging analysis reveals that most of the micro- and macro-pores are well connected, some pore regions are unconnected and thus inaccessible to fluid flow and diffusion. To evaluate whether mineral accessible surface area accurately reflects reactive surface area a flow-through core experiment is performed and modeled at the continuum scale. The core experiment is performed under conditions replicating the pilot site and the evolution of effluent solutes in the aqueous phase is tracked. Various reactive surface area models are evaluated for their ability to capture the observed effluent chemistry, beginning with parameter values determined as a best fit to a disaggregated sediment experiment (Beckingham et al., 2016) described previously. Simulations that assume that all mineral surfaces are accessible (as in the disaggregated sediment experiment) over-predict the observed mineral reaction rates, suggesting that a reduction of RSA by a factor of 10-20 is required to match the core flood

  7. Lumbar Muscle Cross-Sectional Areas Do Not Predict Clinical Outcomes in Adults With Spinal Stenosis: A Longitudinal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gellhorn, Alfred C; Suri, Pradeep; Rundell, Sean D; Olafsen, Nathan; Carlson, M Jake; Johnson, Steve; Fry, Adrielle; Annaswamy, Thiru M; Gilligan, Christopher; Comstock, Bryan; Heagerty, Patrick; Friedly, Janna; Jarvik, Jeffrey G

    2017-06-01

    Minimal longitudinal data exist regarding the role of lumbar musculature in predicting back pain and function. In cross-sectional study designs, there is often atrophy of the segmental multifidus muscle in subjects with low back pain compared with matched controls. However, the cross-sectional design of these studies prevents drawing conclusions regarding whether lumbar muscle characteristics predict or modify future back pain or function. The primary objective of this study is to determine whether the cross-sectional area (CSA) of lumbar muscles predict functional status or back pain at 6- or 12-month follow-up in older adults with spinal degeneration. The secondary objective is to evaluate whether these muscle characteristics improve outcome prediction above and beyond the prognostic information conferred by demographic and psychosocial variables. Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial. A total of 209 adults aged 50 years and older with clinical and radiographic spinal stenosis from the Lumbar Epidural steroid injection for Spinal Stenosis (LESS) trial. Using baseline magnetic resonance images, we calculated CSAs of the lumbar multifidus, psoas, and quadratus lumborum muscles using a standardized protocol by manually tracing the borders of each of the muscles. The relationship between lumbar muscle CSAs and baseline measures was assessed with Pearson or Spearman correlation coefficients. The relationship between lumbar muscle characteristics and 6- and 12-month Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RDQ) and back pain Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) responses was further evaluated with multivariate linear regression. A hierarchical approach to the regression was performed: a basic model with factors of conceptual importance including age, gender, BMI, and baseline RDQ score formed the first step. The second and third steps evaluated whether psychosocial variables or muscle measures conferred additional prognostic information to the basic model. Function

  8. Quantitative risk analysis and prediction of potential distribution areas of common lantana (Lantana Camara in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    XiangRong Lui

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The ornamental hybrid shrub, Lantana camara L. (lantana, is a serious environmental weed and has been targeted for the biologist. This paper used such approaches as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP, fuzzy decision, etc., to analyze and predict potential distribution areas of common lantana in 147 sites of China. Based on ecological properties of common lantana, we chose 5 climate ecological factors, i.e., mean annual temperature, mean temperature from March to May in a year, elevation, days with temperature greater than 25C and annual precipitation. The results showed that common lantana will continue to spread forward north China (Hunan, Hubei, etc..

  9. Habitat modelling predictions highlight seasonal relevance of Marine Protected Areas for marine megafauna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, C.; Virgili, A.; Pettex, E.; Delavenne, J.; Toison, V.; Blanck, A.; Ridoux, V.

    2017-07-01

    According to the European Union Habitats and Birds Directives, EU Member States must extend the Natura 2000 network to marine ecosystems, through the designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). However, the initial status of cetacean and seabird communities across European waters is often poorly understood. It is assumed that an MPA is justified where at least 1% of the ;national population; of a species is present during at least part of its biological cycle. The aim of the present work was to use model-based cetacean and seabird distribution to assess the networks of existing Natura 2000 sites and offshore proposed areas of biological interest. The habitat models used here were Generalised Additive Models computed from aerial surveys observational data collected during the winter 2011-2012 and the summer 2012 across the English Channel, Bay of Biscay and north-western Mediterranean Sea. Based on these models, a ratio between species relative abundance predicted within each MPA and the total relative abundance predicted over the French Atlantic or Mediterranean marine regions was computed and compared to the 1% threshold. This assessment was conducted for winter and summer independently, providing information for assessing the relevance of individual MPAs and MPA networks at a seasonal scale. Our results showed that the existing network designed for coastal seabird species was relevant in both marine regions. In contrast, a clear shortfall was identified for offshore seabird species in the Atlantic region and for cetaceans in both regions. Moreover, the size of MPAs appeared to be a crucial feature, with larger MPAs being relevant for more species. Finally, we showed that the proposed large offshore areas of interest would constitute a highly relevant network for all offshore species, with e.g. up to 61% of the Globicephalinae population in the Atlantic French waters being present within these areas.

  10. Permeability surface area product analysis in malignant brain edema prediction - A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volny, O; Cimflova, P; Lee, T-Y; Menon, B K; d'Esterre, C D

    2017-05-15

    Using an extended CT perfusion acquisition (150s), we sought to determine the association between perfusion parameters and malignant edema after ischemic stroke. Patients (from prospective study PROVE-IT, NCT02184936) with terminal internal carotid artery±proximal middle cerebral occlusion were involved. CTA was assessed for clot location and status of leptomeningeal collaterals. The following CTP parameters were calculated within the ischemic territory and contralaterally: permeability surface area product (PS), cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral blood volume (CBV). PS was calculated using the adiabatic approximation to the Johnson and Wilson model. Outcome was evaluated by midline shift and infarction volume on follow-up imaging. Of 200 patients enrolled, 7 patients (3.5%) had midline shift≥5mm (2 excluded for poor-quality scans). Five patients with midline shift and 5 matched controls were analysed. There was no significant difference in mean PS, CBF and CBV within the ischemic territory between the two groups. A CBV threshold of 1.7ml/100g had the highest AUC=0.72, 95% CI=0.54-0.90 for early midline shift prediction, sensitivity and specificity were 0.83 and 0.67 respectively. Our preliminary results did not show significant differences in permeability surface area analysis if analysed for complete ischemic region. CBV parameter had the highest accuracy and there was a trend for the mean PS values for midline shift prediction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The effectiveness of digital soil mapping to predict soil properties over low-relief areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosleh, Zohreh; Salehi, Mohammad Hassan; Jafari, Azam; Borujeni, Isa Esfandiarpoor; Mehnatkesh, Abdolmohammad

    2016-03-01

    This study investigates the ability of different digital soil mapping (DSM) approaches to predict some of physical and chemical topsoil properties in the Shahrekord plain of Chaharmahal-Va-Bakhtiari province, Iran. According to a semi-detailed soil survey, 120 soil samples were collected from 0 to 30 cm depth with approximate distance of 750 m. Particle size distribution, coarse fragments (CFs), electrical conductivity (EC), pH, organic carbon (OC), and calcium carbonate equivalent (CCE) were determined. Four machine learning techniques, namely, artificial neural networks (ANNs), boosted regression tree (BRT), generalized linear model (GLM), and multiple linear regression (MLR), were used to identify the relationship between soil properties and auxiliary information (terrain attributes, remote sensing indices, geology map, existing soil map, and geomorphology map). Root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) were considered to determine the performance of the models. Among the studied models, GLM showed the highest performance to predict pH, EC, clay, silt, sand, and CCE, whereas the best model is not necessarily able to make accurate estimation. According to RMSE%, DSM has a good efficiency to predict soil properties with low and moderate variabilities. Terrain attributes were the main predictors among different studied auxiliary information. The accuracy of the estimations with more observations is recommended to give a better understanding about the performance of DSM approach over low-relief areas.

  12. Limited-area short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sattler

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Inherent uncertainties in short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF from the high-resolution, limited-area numerical weather prediction model DMI-HIRLAM (LAM are addressed using two different approaches to creating a small ensemble of LAM simulations, with focus on prediction of extreme rainfall events over European river basins. The first ensemble type is designed to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state of the initial condition and at the lateral LAM boundaries. The global ensemble prediction system (EPS from ECMWF serves as host model to the LAM and provides the state perturbations, from which a small set of significant members is selected. The significance is estimated on the basis of accumulated precipitation over a target area of interest, which contains the river basin(s under consideration. The selected members provide the initial and boundary data for the ensemble integration in the LAM. A second ensemble approach tries to address a portion of the model-inherent uncertainty responsible for errors in the forecasted precipitation field by utilising different parameterisation schemes for condensation and convection in the LAM. Three periods around historical heavy rain events that caused or contributed to disastrous river flooding in Europe are used to study the performance of the LAM ensemble designs. The three cases exhibit different dynamic and synoptic characteristics and provide an indication of the ensemble qualities in different weather situations. Precipitation analyses from the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD are used as the verifying reference and a comparison of daily rainfall amounts is referred to the respective river basins of the historical cases.

  13. Identification, prediction, and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, F.; Cooper, A.H.; Johnson, K.S.

    2008-01-01

    Sinkholes usually have a higher probability of occurrence and a greater genetic diversity in evaporite terrains than in carbonate karst areas. This is because evaporites have a higher solubility and, commonly, a lower mechanical strength. Subsidence damage resulting from evaporite dissolution generates substantial losses throughout the world, but the causes are only well understood in a few areas. To deal with these hazards, a phased approach is needed for sinkhole identification, investigation, prediction, and mitigation. Identification techniques include field surveys and geomorphological mapping combined with accounts from local people and historical sources. Detailed sinkhole maps can be constructed from sequential historical maps, recent topographical maps, and digital elevation models (DEMs) complemented with building-damage surveying, remote sensing, and high-resolution geodetic surveys. On a more detailed level, information from exposed paleosubsidence features (paleokarst), speleological explorations, geophysical investigations, trenching, dating techniques, and boreholes may help in investigating dissolution and subsidence features. Information on the hydrogeological pathways including caves, springs, and swallow holes are particularly important especially when corroborated by tracer tests. These diverse data sources make a valuable database-the karst inventory. From this dataset, sinkhole susceptibility zonations (relative probability) may be produced based on the spatial distribution of the features and good knowledge of the local geology. Sinkhole distribution can be investigated by spatial distribution analysis techniques including studies of preferential elongation, alignment, and nearest neighbor analysis. More objective susceptibility models may be obtained by analyzing the statistical relationships between the known sinkholes and the conditioning factors. Chronological information on sinkhole formation is required to estimate the probability of

  14. Automaticity and localisation of concurrents predicts colour area activity in grapheme-colour synaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould van Praag, Cassandra D; Garfinkel, Sarah; Ward, Jamie; Bor, Daniel; Seth, Anil K

    2016-07-29

    In grapheme-colour synaesthesia (GCS), the presentation of letters or numbers induces an additional 'concurrent' experience of colour. Early functional MRI (fMRI) investigations of GCS reported activation in colour-selective area V4 during the concurrent experience. However, others have failed to replicate this key finding. We reasoned that individual differences in synaesthetic phenomenology might explain this inconsistency in the literature. To test this hypothesis, we examined fMRI BOLD responses in a group of grapheme-colour synaesthetes (n=20) and matched controls (n=20) while characterising the individual phenomenology of the synaesthetes along dimensions of 'automaticity' and 'localisation'. We used an independent functional localiser to identify colour-selective areas in both groups. Activations in these areas were then assessed during achromatic synaesthesia-inducing, and non-inducing conditions; we also explored whole brain activations, where we sought to replicate the existing literature regarding synaesthesia effects. Controls showed no significant activations in the contrast of inducing > non-inducing synaesthetic stimuli, in colour-selective ROIs or at the whole brain level. In the synaesthete group, we correlated activation within colour-selective ROIs with individual differences in phenomenology using the Coloured Letters and Numbers (CLaN) questionnaire which measures, amongst other attributes, the subjective automaticity/attention in synaesthetic concurrents, and their spatial localisation. Supporting our hypothesis, we found significant correlations between individual measures of synaesthetic phenomenology and BOLD responses in colour-selective areas, when contrasting inducing against non-inducing stimuli. Specifically, left-hemisphere colour area responses were stronger for synaesthetes scoring high on phenomenological localisation and automaticity/attention, while right-hemisphere colour area responses showed a relationship with localisation

  15. Validation of predictive equations of the cross-sectional area of the human trunk. 10.5007/1980-0037.2011v13n6p461

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Estrela Morais

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to develop and validate predictive equations of the cross-sectional area of the human trunk. The models were developed for males according to their level of expertise. The sample comprised 152 male subjects, all of them with a background in competitive or recreational swimming. Their ages ranged between 10 and 32 years. Two different groups of subjects were used to estimate and validate the equation. The following anthropometric characteristics were assessed: (i body weight, (ii height, (iii biacromial diameter, (iv sagittal thoracic diameter, (v chest circumference, and (vi cross-sectional area of the trunk. Predictive models were developed using stepwise multiple linear regression analysis. One of the models used level of expertise as a dummy variable. All models included sagittal thoracic diameter and chest circumference as independent variables (0.32 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.48; P 0.05. The simple linear regressions were moderate (0.23 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.55; 0.01 ≤ P ≤ 0.001, and the Bland-Altman criterion was met in all cases. Therefore, our findings suggest that the models developed for male swimmers according to their level of expertise are able to provide a valid prediction of the cross-sectional area of the trunk.

  16. Diagnostic test of predicted height model in Indonesian elderly: a study in an urban area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatmah Fatmah

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim In an anthropometric assessment, elderly are frequently unable to measure their height due to mobility and skeletal deformities. An alternative is to use a surrogate value of stature from arm span, knee height, and sitting height. The equations developed for predicting height in Indonesian elderly using these three predictors. The equations put in the nutritional assessment card (NSA of older people. Before the card which is the first new technology in Indonesia will be applied in the community, it should be tested. The study aimed was to conduct diagnostic test of predicted height model in the card compared to actual height.Methods Model validation towards 400 healthy elderly conducted in Jakarta City with cross-sectional design. The study was the second validation test of the model besides Depok City representing semi urban area which was undertaken as the first study.Result Male elderly had higher mean age, height, weight, arm span, knee height, and sitting height as compared to female elderly. The highest correlation between knee height and standing height was similar in women (r = 0.80; P < 0.001 and men (r = 0.78; P < 0.001, and followed by arm span and sitting height. Knee height had the lowest difference with standing height in men (3.13 cm and women (2.79 cm. Knee height had the biggest sensitivity (92.2%, and the highest specificity on sitting height (91.2%.Conclusion Stature prediction equation based on knee-height, arm span, and sitting height are applicable for nutritional status assessment in Indonesian elderly. (Med J Indones 2010;19:199-204Key words: diagnostic test, elderly, predicted height model

  17. Vegetation cover, tidal amplitude and land area predict short-term marsh vulnerability in Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoolmaster, Donald; Stagg, Camille L.; Sharp, Leigh Anne; McGinnis, Tommy S.; Wood, Bernard; Piazza, Sarai

    2018-01-01

    The loss of coastal marshes is a topic of great concern, because these habitats provide tangible ecosystem services and are at risk from sea-level rise and human activities. In recent years, significant effort has gone into understanding and modeling the relationships between the biological and physical factors that contribute to marsh stability. Simulation-based process models suggest that marsh stability is the product of a complex feedback between sediment supply, flooding regime and vegetation response, resulting in elevation gains sufficient to match the combination of relative sea-level rise and losses from erosion. However, there have been few direct, empirical tests of these models, because long-term datasets that have captured sufficient numbers of marsh loss events in the context of a rigorous monitoring program are rare. We use a multi-year data set collected by the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) that includes transitions of monitored vegetation plots to open water to build and test a predictive model of near-term marsh vulnerability. We found that despite the conclusions of previous process models, elevation change had no ability to predict the transition of vegetated marsh to open water. However, we found that the processes that drive elevation change were significant predictors of transitions. Specifically, vegetation cover in prior year, land area in the surrounding 1 km2 (an estimate of marsh fragmentation), and the interaction of tidal amplitude and position in tidal frame were all significant factors predicting marsh loss. This suggests that 1) elevation change is likely better a predictor of marsh loss at time scales longer than we consider in this study and 2) the significant predictive factors affect marsh vulnerability through pathways other than elevation change, such as resistance to erosion. In addition, we found that, while sensitivity of marsh vulnerability to the predictive factors varied spatially across coastal Louisiana

  18. The Predictability from Skull Morphology of Temporalis and Masseter Muscle Cross-Sectional Areas in Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toro-Ibacache, Viviana; Zapata MuÑoz, Victor; O'higgins, Paul

    2015-07-01

    To carry out functional simulations of the masticatory system that aim to predict strain magnitudes it is important to apply appropriate jaw-elevator muscle forces. Force magnitude estimation from directly measured muscle physiological cross-sectional area or anatomical cross-sectional area (CSA) is not possible for fossils and skeletal material from museum collections. In these cases, muscle CSAs are often estimated from bony features. This approach has been shown to be inaccurate in a prior study based on direct measurements from cadavers. Postmortem alterations as well as age changes in muscle form might explain this discrepancy. As such, the present study uses CT images from 20 living individuals to directly measure temporalis and masseter muscle CSAs and estimated cross-sectional areas (ECSAs) from bony features. The relationships between CSAs and ECSAs were assessed by comparing mean values and by examining correlations. ECSAs are up to 100% greater than CSA and the means of these variables for each muscle differ significantly. Further, ECSA is significantly correlated with CSA for temporalis but not masseter. Cranial centroid size is only significantly associated with CSA for temporalis. These findings indicate that ECSAs should be employed with caution in simulations of human masticatory system functioning; they do not reflect CSAs and it is plausible that this also applies to studies of closely related living and fossil taxa. When ECSAs are used, sensitivity analyses are required to determine the impact of potential errors. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Fatigue life prediction in a unidirectional glass-epoxy composite material subjected to off-axis cyclic loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Revuelta, D.

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Most of today s fatigue analysis and design methods for composite laminates were developed primarily on the basis of experience with homogeneous metals. Such methods are subject to serious drawbacks, however, because the failure the modes of failure observed in metals. A theoretical model for predicting the fatigue life of continuous glass-fibre/epoxy composite materials under general loading conditions has been developed on the basis of fundamental fatigue failure modes and local failure criteria.

    La mayoría de los actuales métodos de cálculo y diseño a fatiga de estructuras de materiales compuestos se han desarrollado principalmente a partir de la experiencia previa en materiales metálicos homogéneos. Sin embargo, estos métodos presentan serios inconvenientes debido a que la heterogeneidad y micro estructura orientada características de los materiales compuestos laminados provocan modos de fallo diferentes a los de los metales. Basándose en los modos fundamentales de rotura por fatiga y en criterios de rotura local, se desarrolla un modelo teórico de vida a fatiga para materiales compuestos de matriz epoxi reforzados con fibra de vidrio bajo condiciones generales de carga

  20. MLP based models to predict PM10, O3 concentrations, in Sines industrial area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durao, R.; Pereira, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    Sines is an important Portuguese industrial area located southwest cost of Portugal with important nearby protected natural areas. The main economical activities are related with this industrial area, the deep-water port, petrochemical and thermo-electric industry. Nevertheless, tourism is also an important economic activity especially in summer time with potential to grow. The aim of this study is to develop prediction models of pollutant concentration categories (e.g. low concentration and high concentration) in order to provide early warnings to the competent authorities who are responsible for the air quality management. The knowledge in advanced of pollutant high concentrations occurrence will allow the implementation of mitigation actions and the release of precautionary alerts to population. The regional air quality monitoring network consists in three monitoring stations where a set of pollutants' concentrations are registered on a continuous basis. From this set stands out the tropospheric ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) due to the high concentrations occurring in the region and their adverse effects on human health. Moreover, the major industrial plants of the region monitor SO2, NO2 and particles emitted flows at the principal chimneys (point sources), also on a continuous basis,. Therefore Artificial neuronal networks (ANN) were the applied methodology to predict next day pollutant concentrations; due to the ANNs structure they have the ability to capture the non-linear relationships between predictor variables. Hence the first step of this study was to apply multivariate exploratory techniques to select the best predictor variables. The classification trees methodology (CART) was revealed to be the most appropriate in this case.. Results shown that pollutants atmospheric concentrations are mainly dependent on industrial emissions and a complex combination of meteorological factors and the time of the year. In the second step, the Multi

  1. Subjective but Not Actigraphy-Defined Sleep Predicts Next-Day Fatigue in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: A Prospective Daily Diary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Charlotte; Wearden, Alison J.; Fairclough, Gillian; Emsley, Richard A.; Kyle, Simon D.

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: This study aimed to (1) examine the relationship between subjective and actigraphy-defined sleep, and next-day fatigue in chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS); and (2) investigate the potential mediating role of negative mood on this relationship. We also sought to examine the effect of presleep arousal on perceptions of sleep. Methods: Twenty-seven adults meeting the Oxford criteria for CFS and self-identifying as experiencing sleep difficulties were recruited to take part in a prospective daily diary study, enabling symptom capture in real time over a 6-day period. A paper diary was used to record nightly subjective sleep and presleep arousal. Mood and fatigue symptoms were rated four times each day. Actigraphy was employed to provide objective estimations of sleep duration and continuity. Results: Multilevel modelling revealed that subjective sleep variables, namely sleep quality, efficiency, and perceiving sleep to be unrefreshing, predicted following-day fatigue levels, with poorer subjective sleep related to increased fatigue. Lower subjective sleep efficiency and perceiving sleep as unrefreshing predicted reduced variance in fatigue across the following day. Negative mood on waking partially mediated these relationships. Increased presleep cognitive and somatic arousal predicted self-reported poor sleep. Actigraphy-defined sleep, however, was not found to predict following-day fatigue. Conclusions: For the first time we show that nightly subjective sleep predicts next-day fatigue in CFS and identify important factors driving this relationship. Our data suggest that sleep specific interventions, targeting presleep arousal, perceptions of sleep and negative mood on waking, may improve fatigue in CFS. Citation: Russell C, Wearden AJ, Fairclough G, Emsley RA, Kyle SD. Subjective but not actigraphy-defined sleep predicts next-day fatigue in chronic fatigue syndrome: a prospective daily diary study. SLEEP 2016;39(4):937–944. PMID:26715232

  2. Macrophage inflammatory protein-1α shows predictive value as a risk marker for subjects and sites vulnerable to bone loss in a longitudinal model of aggressive periodontitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fine, Daniel H; Markowitz, Kenneth; Fairlie, Karen; Tischio-Bereski, Debbie; Ferrandiz, Javier; Godboley, Dipti; Furgang, David; Gunsolley, John; Best, Al

    2014-01-01

    Improved diagnostics remains a fundamental goal of biomedical research. This study was designed to assess cytokine biomarkers that could predict bone loss (BL) in localized aggressive periodontitis. 2,058 adolescents were screened. Two groups of 50 periodontally healthy adolescents were enrolled in the longitudinal study. One group had Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (Aa), the putative pathogen, while the matched cohort did not. Cytokine levels were assessed in saliva and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF). Participants were sampled, examined, and radiographed every 6 months for 2-3 years. Disease was defined as radiographic evidence of BL. Saliva and GCF was collected at each visit, frozen, and then tested retrospectively after detection of BL. Sixteen subjects with Aa developed BL. Saliva from Aa-positive and Aa-negative healthy subjects was compared to subjects who developed BL. GCF was collected from 16 subjects with BL and from another 38 subjects who remained healthy. GCF from BL sites in the 16 subjects was compared to healthy sites in these same subjects and to healthy sites in subjects who remained healthy. Results showed that cytokines in saliva associated with acute inflammation were elevated in subjects who developed BL (i.e., MIP-1α MIP-1β IL-α, IL-1β and IL-8; psites were below that level (Specificity); whereas, 93% of sites with BL were higher (Sensitivity), with comparable Predictive Values of 98%; psite vulnerability to BL.

  3. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of seabird diversity in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird diversity predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived from...

  4. NOAA ESRI Grid - depth uncertainty predictions in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch bathymetry model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents depth uncertainty predictions from a bathymetric model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  5. NOAA ESRI Grid - seafloor hardbottom occurrence predictions model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents hard bottom occurrence predictions from a spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This model builds upon the...

  6. Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This product "Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area" is a 1:250,000-scale vector dataset...

  7. The amplitude spectrum area correctly predicts improved resuscitation and facilitated defibrillation with head cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Min-Shan; Barbut, Denise; Guan, Jun; Bisera, Joe; Inderbitzen, Becky; Weil, Max Harry; Tang, Wanchun

    2008-11-01

    When systemic hypothermia was maintained before inducing cardiac arrest, the likelihood of successful defibrillation and meaningful survival was increased. When hypothermia is induced during cardiopulmonary resuscitation, mortality is also improved. With the introduction of the amplitude spectrum area as a predictor of the success of electrical defibrillation, we investigated the effect of preferential head cooling initiated coincident with cardiopulmonary resuscitation on amplitude spectrum area as a predictor. We hypothesized that rapid head cooling initiated coincident with cardiopulmonary resuscitation improves amplitude spectrum area, and therefore is predictive of successful defibrillation. Prospective randomized controlled study. University-affiliated research institute. Domestic pigs. Sixteen pigs, weighing 40.6 +/- 1.4 kg, were randomized to the hypothermia (n = 8), or control (n = 8) group. Ventricular fibrillation was induced and untreated for 10 mins. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation was then initiated for 5 mins followed by attempted defibrillation with a biphasic 150-J electric shock. Coincident with starting cardiopulmonary resuscitation, hypothermia was induced with evaporative intranasal cooling using a perfluorochemical. If spontaneous circulation was not restored after defibrillation, cardiopulmonary resuscitation was resumed for 1 min before the next defibrillation attempt until the animal was either successfully resuscitated or for a total of 15 mins. The target core temperature was 34 degrees C. Control animals were identically treated except for hypothermia. Five seconds of ventricular fibrillation waveform were recorded immediately preceding delivery of a shock. The ventricular fibrillation waveforms were analyzed using the amplitude spectrum area algorithm. A smaller epinephrine dose (60 +/- 32.1 vs. 30 +/- 0 mg/mL, p = .01) and shorter cardiopulmonary resuscitation duration (365 +/- 42 sec vs. 600 +/- 243 sec, p = .01) were required to

  8. Prediction of radionuclide aging in soils from the Chernobyl and Mediterranean areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roig, M; Vidal, M; Rauret, G; Rigol, A

    2007-01-01

    The aging of soil-pollutant interaction, which may lead to an increase in pollutant fixation, is the main driving force in the natural attenuation of contaminated soils. Here a test was evaluated to predict the aging of radiostrontium and radiocesium in soils from the Chernobyl and Mediterranean areas. After contamination, soils were maintained at various temperatures for up to 12 mo, with or without drying-wetting (DW) cycles. Changes in the quantity of radionuclide reversibly sorbed over time were monitored using an extraction test (1 mol L(-1) NH(4)Cl; 10 mL g(-1); 16 h). The fixed fraction could not be predicted from soil properties controlling the sorption step. Aging was not as relevant for Sr as for Cs. The time elapsed since contamination was the main factor responsible for the slight (up to 1.3-fold) decreases in Sr extraction yields. The additional effect of DW cycles was negligible. Instead, all factors accelerated Cs aging due to the enhancement of Cs trapping by clay interlayer collapse, with up to 20-fold increases in Cs fixation. The DW cycles also caused secondary effects on the Cs-specific sorption pool, which were beneficial or detrimental depending on the soil type. Extraction yields from laboratory aged samples agreed with those from field samples taken a few years after the Chernobyl accident. These results confirm the prediction capacity of the laboratory test and its usefulness in risk assessment exercises and in the design of intervention actions, particularly because neither fixation nor aging were related to the soil properties, such as clay content.

  9. Using Remotely Sensed Fractional Snow Covered Area to Predict Snow Depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, D.; Molotch, N. P.

    2016-12-01

    Estimating the distribution of snow is one of the most important problems for water resources managers. Remotely sensed fractional snow covered area (fSCA) provides relatively robust spatial observations of the areal distribution of snow. In this work we mine the NASA JPL Airborne Snow Observatory dataset to investigate how well spatially explicit observations of fSCA predict spatially explicit estimates of snow depth. We find that the relationship between fSCA and snow depth is strongly correlated with the mean and variability of snow depth, thus exposing a circular problem. We use a multi-scale approach to parameterize the relationship and provide spatially explicit estimates of snow depth. Using only fSCA to predict snow depth, mean absolute errors range from 30%-70% with a mean bias of 1%, which is within the range of previous literature values for more complex statistical interpolations of snow depth. This approach differs from past statistical interpolations because it does not use any terrain information. In this regard, we note opposing biases on north- and south-facing slopes suggesting that some of the terrain's influence may be lost within fSCA. Nonetheless, we think this relatively simple relationship has the potential to help map snow depth continuously through the melt season to improve real-time flood and streamflow forecasting.

  10. Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy reduces the predicted coronary heart disease risk and the vascular age in obese subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iancu, M; Copăescu, C; Şerban, M; Ginghină, C

    2013-01-01

    Obesity is associated with high prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and long term increased cardiovascular morbi-mortality. There are no data regarding the effect of laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) on long-term CHD - risk. It is known that "a man is as old as his arteries" and this concept is illustrated by Framingham coronary risk score, which can predict vascular age. To assess the 10-year CHD risk in patients with obesity, preoperatively, and 6 and 12 months after LSG. 47 consecutive obese subjects (44.7% males, mean age 39.8 years) scheduled for LSG were prospectively studied before and 6 and 12 months after surgery. The 10 years CHD risk and corresponding vascular age were calculated using Framingham risk score. The body mass index (BMI) decreased from 44.6 ± 10.6 kg m2 preoperatively to 32.2 ± 6.9 kg m2 and to 29.4 ± 5.4 kg m2 at 6 and 12 months follow-up (both p 0.05). Mean excessive weight loss (EWL) was 67.3 ± 23.7% and 78.3 ± 23.4% at 6 and 12 months postoperatively. At 6 and 12 months after LSG, there was a marked improvment of lipid profile(decrease of total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides and increase of HDL-cholesterol) and a significant decrease in prevalence of diabetes mellitus, systemic hypertension and smoking. The 10-year CHD risk reduced from 10.1% preoperatively to 3.5% and to 2.2% at 6 and 12 months after surgery (both p 0.05). Patients' mean vascular age was 65.6 years preoperatively and decreased to 45.8 years 6 month spostoperatively (p 0.05) and to 40.7 years one year after LSG (p 0.05 vs. 6 months postoperatively, p=NS vs.chronological age). In obese subjects, CHD risk is significantly reduced early, beginning with 6 months after LSG and is diminished with 80% one year postoperatively. Despite the fact that not all patients had achieved the ideal weight yet,mean vascular age is similar to their chronological age one year after surgery. Celsius.

  11. An outcome in need of clarity: building a predictive model of subjective quality of life for persons with severe mental illness living in the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Peiying Sarah; Krupa, Terry; Lawson, J Stuart; Eastabrook, Shirley

    2005-01-01

    The study purpose was to construct a predictive model of subjective quality of life for persons with severe mental illness living in the community with particular attention to participation in occupations. Persons with severe mental illness (N=154) rated their subjective quality of life. Several measures for each of the following categories of variables were completed: demographics, clinical, social participation, and self-measured well-being. Regression analysis was used to determine the significant predictors for each category and then to build the predictive model from these significant variables. Symptom distress accounted for the most variance (33%) in subjective quality of life, followed by psychological integration (3%) and physical integration (2%). The study suggests that occupational therapists should attend to subjective experience of symptoms to influence quality of life. Therapists are also in a good position to address their clients' sense of belonging to their communities and to enable community participation.

  12. Identification and Prediction of Large Pedestrian Flow in Urban Areas Based on a Hybrid Detection Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaisheng Zhang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Recently, population density has grown quickly with the increasing acceleration of urbanization. At the same time, overcrowded situations are more likely to occur in populous urban areas, increasing the risk of accidents. This paper proposes a synthetic approach to recognize and identify the large pedestrian flow. In particular, a hybrid pedestrian flow detection model was constructed by analyzing real data from major mobile phone operators in China, including information from smartphones and base stations (BS. With the hybrid model, the Log Distance Path Loss (LDPL model was used to estimate the pedestrian density from raw network data, and retrieve information with the Gaussian Progress (GP through supervised learning. Temporal-spatial prediction of the pedestrian data was carried out with Machine Learning (ML approaches. Finally, a case study of a real Central Business District (CBD scenario in Shanghai, China using records of millions of cell phone users was conducted. The results showed that the new approach significantly increases the utility and capacity of the mobile network. A more reasonable overcrowding detection and alert system can be developed to improve safety in subway lines and other hotspot landmark areas, such as the Bundle, People’s Square or Disneyland, where a large passenger flow generally exists.

  13. Seismic hazard analysis of Tianjin area based on strong ground motion prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Boming

    2010-08-01

    Taking Tianjin as an example, this paper proposed a methodology and process for evaluating near-fault strong ground motions from future earthquakes to mitigate earthquake damage for the metropolitan area and important engineering structures. The result of strong ground motion was predicted for Tianjin main faults by the hybrid method which mainly consists of 3D finite difference method and stochastic Green’s function. Simulation is performed for 3D structures of Tianjin region and characterized asperity models. The characterized asperity model describing source heterogeneity is introduced following the fault information from the project of Tianjin Active Faults and Seismic Hazard Assessment. We simulated the worst case that two earthquakes separately occur. The results indicate that the fault position, rupture process and the sedimentary deposits of the basin significantly affect amplification of the simulated ground motion. Our results also demonstrate the possibility of practical simulating wave propagation including basin induced surface waves in broad frequency-band, for seismic hazard analysis near the fault from future earthquakes in urbanized areas.

  14. Using ANN and EPR models to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in urban area of Tabriz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Shakerkhatibi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Forecasting of air pollutants has become a popular topic of environmental research today. For this purpose, the artificial neural network (AAN technique is widely used as a reliable method for forecasting air pollutants in urban areas. On the other hand, the evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR model has recently been used as a forecasting tool in some environmental issues. In this research, we compared the ability of these models to forecast carbon monoxide (CO concentrations in the urban area of Tabriz city. Methods: The dataset of CO concentrations measured at the fixed stations operated by the East Azerbaijan Environmental Office along with meteorological data obtained from the East Azerbaijan Meteorological Bureau from March 2007 to March 2013, were used as input for the ANN and EPR models. Results: Based on the results, the performance of ANN is more reliable in comparison with EPR. Using the ANN model, the correlation coefficient values at all monitoring stations were calculated above 0.85. Conversely, the R2 values for these stations were obtained <0.41 using the EPR model. Conclusion: The EPR model could not overcome the nonlinearities of input data. However, the ANN model displayed more accurate results compared to the EPR. Hence, the ANN models are robust tools for predicting air pollutant concentrations.

  15. The predictive value of self-rated health in the presence of subjective memory complaints on permanent nursing home placement in elderly primary care patients over 4-year follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anni Brit Sternhagen; Siersma, Volkert Dirk; Waldemar, Gunhild

    2013-01-01

    self-rated health (SRH) predicts nursing home (NH) placement; subjective memory complaints (SMC) too. However, the predictive value of SRH in the presence of SMC is unclear.......self-rated health (SRH) predicts nursing home (NH) placement; subjective memory complaints (SMC) too. However, the predictive value of SRH in the presence of SMC is unclear....

  16. MEG reveals a fast pathway from somatosensory cortex to occipital areas via posterior parietal cortex in a blind subject

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ioannides, Andreas A; Liu, Lichan; Poghosyan, Vahe

    2013-01-01

    magnetoencephalography (MEG) data recorded from one congenitally blind and two sighted subjects after stimulation of the left and right median nerves at three intensities: below sensory threshold, above sensory threshold and above motor threshold; the last sufficient to produce thumb twitching. We identified...... reproducible brain responses in the primary somatosensory (S1) and motor (M1) cortices at around 20 ms post-stimulus, which were very similar in sighted and blind subjects. Time-frequency analysis revealed strong 45-70 Hz activity at latencies of 20-50 ms in S1 and M1, and posterior parietal cortex Brodmann...... of information through this pathway occurred in stages characterized by convergence of activations into specific cortical regions. In sighted subjects, no linked activity was found that led from the somatosensory to the visual cortex through any of the studied brain regions. These results provide the first...

  17. Reproducibility of fat area measurements in young, non-obese subjects by computerized analysis of magnetic resonance images

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, J.M.; Haumann, G.; Asscheman, H.; Seidell, J C; Gooren, Louis J G

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess reproducibility, expressed as both inter-observer variability and intra-observer variability, of fat area measurements on images obtained by magnetic resonance (MR); to compare variability between fat area measurements, calculated from a single image per body region and from the

  18. Parallels between Objective Indicators and Subjective Perceptions of Quality of Life: A Study of Metropolitan and County Areas in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Pei-shan

    2009-01-01

    This study explores the consistency between objective indicators and subjective perceptions of quality of life in a ranking of survey data for cities and counties in Taiwan. Data used for analysis included the Statistical Yearbook of Hsiens and Municipalities and the Survey on Living Conditions of Citizens in Taiwan, both given for the year 2000.…

  19. Subjectivity in Education and Health: Research Notes on School Learning Area and Physical Education in Mental Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezerra, Marilia; da Costa, Jonatas Maia

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results of two studies researching the theory of subjectivity from a cultural-historical perspective. The studies are situated in the fields of education and health and are conducted using Qualitative Epistemology. The first study discusses the pathological movement problems of learning disabilities in Brazilian schools and…

  20. Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yinghui; Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

    2017-10-27

    The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

  1. Subjective but Not Actigraphy-Defined Sleep Predicts Next-Day Fatigue in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: A Prospective Daily Diary Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Charlotte; Wearden, Alison J; Fairclough, Gillian; Emsley, Richard A; Kyle, Simon D

    2016-04-01

    This study aimed to (1) examine the relationship between subjective and actigraphy-defined sleep, and next-day fatigue in chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS); and (2) investigate the potential mediating role of negative mood on this relationship. We also sought to examine the effect of presleep arousal on perceptions of sleep. Twenty-seven adults meeting the Oxford criteria for CFS and self-identifying as experiencing sleep difficulties were recruited to take part in a prospective daily diary study, enabling symptom capture in real time over a 6-day period. A paper diary was used to record nightly subjective sleep and presleep arousal. Mood and fatigue symptoms were rated four times each day. Actigraphy was employed to provide objective estimations of sleep duration and continuity. Multilevel modelling revealed that subjective sleep variables, namely sleep quality, efficiency, and perceiving sleep to be unrefreshing, predicted following-day fatigue levels, with poorer subjective sleep related to increased fatigue. Lower subjective sleep efficiency and perceiving sleep as unrefreshing predicted reduced variance in fatigue across the following day. Negative mood on waking partially mediated these relationships. Increased presleep cognitive and somatic arousal predicted self-reported poor sleep. Actigraphy-defined sleep, however, was not found to predict following-day fatigue. For the first time we show that nightly subjective sleep predicts next-day fatigue in CFS and identify important factors driving this relationship. Our data suggest that sleep specific interventions, targeting presleep arousal, perceptions of sleep and negative mood on waking, may improve fatigue in CFS. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  2. Predictive modeling of slope deposits and comparisons of two small areas in Northern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shary, Peter A.; Sharaya, Larisa S.; Mitusov, Andrew V.

    2017-08-01

    which Mtotal diminishes 2.72 times; values of this parameter differ 1.4 times for the study areas. DV12 is greater in Perdoel (3.0 m) than in Bornhöved (2.1 m) thus indicating more sharp peaks of Mtotal in Bornhöved. Exponential models allow construction of predictive maps of buried Pleistocene surfaces for both the terrains and calculate colluvium volumes with an error 4.2% for Perdoel and 7.1% for Bornhöved. Comparisons of buried and present surfaces showed that the latter are more smoothed, more strongly in valleys where flow branching is increased.

  3. Predictability and Spatial Characteristics of New-York-City-Area Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, C.; Horton, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    The origins, characteristics, and predictability of extreme heat waves in the Northeast U.S. are simultaneously examined at multiple scales, using hourly observational data from 1948-2014 and focusing in particular on the region surrounding New York City. A novel definition of heat waves - incorporating both temperature and moisture at hourly resolution - is used to identify 3-to-5-day heat waves whose dynamics are then analyzed from 3 weeks prior to 3 weeks subsequent to the event. Inter-event differences in dynamics such as the strength and position of geopotential-height anomalies; the strength, persistence, and orientation of sea breezes; and the dominant 850-hPa wind azimuth, all of which are filtered via local terrain and land-use to create differences in conditions between events at specific locations. In particular, using composite maps and back trajectories, they are found to play an important role in creating mesoscale differences in low-level moisture content, from one side of the metropolitan area to the other. Evidence is presented supporting the influence of coastline orientation in explaining the differences in the relationships between wind azimuth and temperature & moisture advection between New York City proper and northern New Jersey. Self-organizing maps are employed to classify heat waves based on the small-scale differences in temperature and moisture between events, and the results of this classification are then used in correlations with synoptic- and hemispheric-scale geopotential-height anomalies. Considerable predictability of event type on the small-scale (as well as occurrence of a heat wave of any kind) is found, originating primarily from central Pacific and western Atlantic SSTs.

  4. Predicting soil erosion in Loess areas using a physically based erosion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, U.; Zehe, E.

    2003-04-01

    Sediment associated transfer of nutrients and contaminants from agricultural land is a serious threat to surface waters. For planning and managing the sustainable use of water resources information on sediment bound nutrient and contaminant emissions are required. The variation rates of sediment transport to receiving waters in space and time according to the nature of erosion and deposition processes can be determined using physically based numerical models. However these models are often unsuitable for practical application as they require a large set of input parameters which are usually not available on the basin scale. The objective of this research is therefore to derive a basin scale methodology based on easily available input parameters for predicting erosion in Loess regions using the hydrological model CATFLOW and detailed process studies in a small rural German catchment. CATFLOW is based on Richards Equation and the Saint-Venant-Equation to simulate soil water dynamics and overland flow / river flow, including an effective approach for preferential flow and a detailed SVAT model. Soil erosion is modeled using an approach based on shear stress, the momentum balance of precipitation and a semi-empirical erosion resistance. The underlying process studies consist of more than 60 irrigation experiments. To this end we followed a threefold approach: a) development of an effective process model for erosion and derivation of the related parameters based on the process studies; b) generation of a database of erosion events by means of physically based simulations and systematic variation of hillslope geometry, soil types and soil catena, macroporosity, soil moisture, vegetation cover and type and surface preparation; c) derivation of a fuzzy rule based methodology to predict the soil loss per unit area using simple shape-, texture- and vegetation parameters as well as nominal scaled information about surface preparation, which may be easily implemented into a

  5. [Left ventricular hypertrophy in black African subjects with artery hypertension: Results of a cross-sectional survey conducted in semi-rural area in Senegal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbaye, A; Dodo, B; Ngaïde, A A; Sy, N F; Babaka, K; Mingou, J S; Faye, M; Niang, K; Sarr, S A; Dioum, M; Bodian, M; Ndiaye, M B; Kane, A D; Ndour-Mbaye, M; Diao, M; Diack, B; Kane, M; Diagne-Sow, D; Thiaw, I; Kane, A

    2017-09-01

    To assess the prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy according to electrocardiographic and echocardiographic criteria among hypertensive patients living in semi-rural Senegalese area. According to the World Health Organization STEPSwise approach, we conducted, in November 2012, a cross-sectional and exhaustive study in the population aged at least 35 years old and living for at least six months in the semi-rural area of Guéoul. We researched electrocardiographic and echocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy in hypertensive subjects. Data were analyzed with SPSS 18.0 software version. The significance level was agreed for a value of P<0.05. We examined 1411 subjects aged on average of 48.5±12.7 years. In total, 654 subjects were hypertensive and screening of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) was effective in 515 of them. According to Sokolow-Lyon index, 86 subjects (16.7%) presented electrocardiographic LVH, more frequently in men (P=0.002). According to Cornell index and Cornell product, LVH was founded respectively in 66 (12.8%) and 52 subjects (10.1%), more frequently in female (P=0.0001; P=0.004). It was more common in grade 3 of hypertension however criteria. In echocardiography, prevalence of LVH was 2.2% (13 cases) according to the left ventricular mass, 9.3% (48 cases) according to the left ventricular mass indexed to body surface area and 8.2% (42 cases) according to the left ventricular mass indexed to height 2.7 . LVH was significantly correlated with the electrocardiographic LVH according to Sokolow-Lyon index (P<0.0001) and the grade 3 of hypertension (P=0.003). Although rare in hypertensive Senegalese living in semi-rural area, left ventricular hypertrophy is correlated with severity of grade of hypertension. Screening by electrocardiogram will allow better follow-up of these hypertensive subjects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. Regional-scale Predictions of Agricultural N Losses in an Area with a High Livestock Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Grignani

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The quantification of the N losses in territories characterised by intensive animal stocking is of primary importance. The development of simulation models coupled to a GIS, or of simple environmental indicators, is strategic to suggest the best specific management practices. The aims of this work were: a to couple a GIS to a simulation model in order to predict N losses; b to estimate leaching and gaseous N losses from a territory with intensive livestock farming; c to derive a simplified empirical metamodel from the model output that could be used to rank the relative importance of the variables which influence N losses and to extend the results to homogeneous situations. The work was carried out in a 7773 ha area in the Western Po plain in Italy. This area was chosen because it is characterised by intensive animal husbandry and might soon be included in the nitrate vulnerable zones. The high N load, the shallow water table and the coarse type of sub-soil sediments contribute to the vulnerability to N leaching. A CropSyst simulation model was coupled to a GIS, to account for the soil surface N budget. A linear multiple regression approach was used to describe the influence of a series of independent variables on the N leaching, the N gaseous losses (including volatilisation and denitrification and on the sum of the two. Despite the fact that the available GIS was very detailed, a great deal of information necessary to run the model was lacking. Further soil measurements concerning soil hydrology, soil nitrate content and water table depth proved very valuable to integrate the data contained in the GIS in order to produce reliable input for the model. The results showed that the soils influence both the quantity and the pathways of the N losses to a great extent. The ratio between the N losses and the N supplied varied between 20 and 38%. The metamodel shows that manure input always played the most important role in determining the N losses

  7. Macrophage inflammatory protein-1α shows predictive value as a risk marker for subjects and sites vulnerable to bone loss in a longitudinal model of aggressive periodontitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel H Fine

    Full Text Available Improved diagnostics remains a fundamental goal of biomedical research. This study was designed to assess cytokine biomarkers that could predict bone loss (BL in localized aggressive periodontitis. 2,058 adolescents were screened. Two groups of 50 periodontally healthy adolescents were enrolled in the longitudinal study. One group had Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (Aa, the putative pathogen, while the matched cohort did not. Cytokine levels were assessed in saliva and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF. Participants were sampled, examined, and radiographed every 6 months for 2-3 years. Disease was defined as radiographic evidence of BL. Saliva and GCF was collected at each visit, frozen, and then tested retrospectively after detection of BL. Sixteen subjects with Aa developed BL. Saliva from Aa-positive and Aa-negative healthy subjects was compared to subjects who developed BL. GCF was collected from 16 subjects with BL and from another 38 subjects who remained healthy. GCF from BL sites in the 16 subjects was compared to healthy sites in these same subjects and to healthy sites in subjects who remained healthy. Results showed that cytokines in saliva associated with acute inflammation were elevated in subjects who developed BL (i.e., MIP-1α MIP-1β IL-α, IL-1β and IL-8; p<0.01. MIP-1α was elevated 13-fold, 6 months prior to BL. When MIP-1α levels were set at 40 pg/ml, 98% of healthy sites were below that level (Specificity; whereas, 93% of sites with BL were higher (Sensitivity, with comparable Predictive Values of 98%; p<0.0001; 95% C.I. = 42.5-52.7. MIP-1α consistently showed elevated levels as a biomarker for BL in both saliva and GCF, 6 months prior to BL. MIP-1α continues to demonstrate its strong candidacy as a diagnostic biomarker for both subject and site vulnerability to BL.

  8. A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON PREDICTION OF FALLS IN PARKINSONS DISEASE SUBJECTS USING TIMED UP AND GO TEST WITH TINETTI MOBILITY TEST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pallabi Goswami

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Subjects with moderate disability in Parkinson’s disease experience difficulty when they are required to walk while attending to a complex activity. These subjects have a tendency to fall which is related to the disease symptoms and also may be due to age factor. This study is intended to predict the future falls in Parkinson’s disease. Subjects with moderate disability were assessed with the Tinnetti mobility test and Timed up and go test, where the number of falls will be correlated with each test scores to check which test can predict the future falls better. Method: The participants in the study were 30 Parkinson’s Disease subjects, out of which 12 subjects did not meet the inclusion criteria, remaining 18 subjects were assessed with Tinnetti mobility test and Timed Up and Go test. For each subject scores were documented. The study was done for a duration of 1 year. During this time subjects were allowed to document the number of falls. These numbers of falls were correlated with each test scores for the prediction of falls. Results: Pearson correlation test has been done to correlate the number of falls with each test score and found that Tinnetti mobility test is negatively correlated to the number of falls that is - .847 and Timed Up and Go test is positively related that is 0.924. The correlation result with each test score were statistically significant (p<0.01 but Timed Up and Go test score was found to be more significant compared to Tinnetti mobility test scores. Conclusion: The analysis shows that Timed Up and Go test is a better predictor of falls than Tinnetti mobility test which is showing statistical significance (p<0.01 in case of Parkinson’s disease patients.

  9. Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.

    The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

  10. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C.

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  11. A hybrid predictive model for acoustic noise in urban areas based on time series analysis and artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarnaccia, Claudio; Quartieri, Joseph; Tepedino, Carmine

    2017-06-01

    The dangerous effect of noise on human health is well known. Both the auditory and non-auditory effects are largely documented in literature, and represent an important hazard in human activities. Particular care is devoted to road traffic noise, since it is growing according to the growth of residential, industrial and commercial areas. For these reasons, it is important to develop effective models able to predict the noise in a certain area. In this paper, a hybrid predictive model is presented. The model is based on the mixing of two different approach: the Time Series Analysis (TSA) and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The TSA model is based on the evaluation of trend and seasonality in the data, while the ANN model is based on the capacity of the network to "learn" the behavior of the data. The mixed approach will consist in the evaluation of noise levels by means of TSA and, once the differences (residuals) between TSA estimations and observed data have been calculated, in the training of a ANN on the residuals. This hybrid model will exploit interesting features and results, with a significant variation related to the number of steps forward in the prediction. It will be shown that the best results, in terms of prediction, are achieved predicting one step ahead in the future. Anyway, a 7 days prediction can be performed, with a slightly greater error, but offering a larger range of prediction, with respect to the single day ahead predictive model.

  12. Nongrafted Skin Area Best Predicts Exercise Core Temperature Responses in Burned Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganio, Matthew S; Schlader, Zachary J; Pearson, James; Lucas, Rebekah A I; Gagnon, Daniel; Rivas, Eric; Kowalske, Karen J; Crandall, Craig G

    2015-10-01

    Grafted skin impairs heat dissipation, but it is unknown to what extent this affects body temperature during exercise in the heat. We examined core body temperature responses during exercise in the heat in a group of individuals with a large range of grafts covering their body surface area (BSA; 0%-75%). Forty-three individuals (19 females) were stratified into groups based on BSA grafted: control (0% grafted, n = 9), 17%-40% (n = 19), and >40% (n = 15). Subjects exercised at a fixed rate of metabolic heat production (339 ± 70 W; 4.3 ± 0.8 W·kg) in an environmental chamber set at 40°C, 30% relative humidity for 90 min or until exhaustion (n = 8). Whole-body sweat rate and core temperatures were measured. Whole-body sweat rates were similar between the groups (control: 14.7 ± 3.4 mL·min, 17%-40%: 12.6 ± 4.0 mL·min; and >40%: 11.7 ± 4.4 mL·min; P > 0.05), but the increase in core temperature at the end of exercise in the >40% BSA grafted group (1.6°C ± 0.5°C) was greater than the 17%-40% (1.2°C ± 0.3°C) and control (0.9°C ± 0.2°C) groups (P skin (expressed in square meters) was the strongest independent predictor of the core temperature increase (r = 0.41). When regrouping all subjects, individuals with the lowest BSA of nongrafted skin (temperature (1.6°C ± 0.5°C) than those with more than 1.5 m nongrafted skin (1.0°C ± 0.3°C; P skin have greater increases in core temperature when exercising in the heat and that the magnitude of this increase is best explained by the amount of nongrafted skin available for heat dissipation.

  13. A nondestructive technique for predicting the strength remaining in filament wound composites subjected to low-level impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madaras, E. I.; Poe, C. C.; Heyman, J. S.

    1987-01-01

    A model for predicting the fracture strength of homogeneous materials is proposed. Impacted FWC samples were evaluated using ultrasonic testing and an X-ray dye penetration method. The ability of the model to measure fracture strength was also examined. The relation between attenuation and velocity measurements is studied. It is observed that the X-ray method is not useful for predicting fracture strength because the dye could not penetrate the matrix. It is noted that fracture strength predictions derived from the fracture mechanical model and the ultrasonic measurements correlate well with actual measured fracture strengths.

  14. Towards prediction of redistribution of fallout radiocesium on forested area discharged from Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Satoru; Aoyama, Michio; Ito, Eriko; Shichi, Koji; Takata, Daisuke; Masaya, Masumori; Sekiya, Nobuhito; Kobayashi, Natsuko; Takano, Naoto; Kaneko, Shinji; Tanoi, Keitaro; Nakanishi, Tomoko

    2015-04-01

    erosion, such as inclination angle or catchment area calculated from Digital Elevation Model, showed almost no significant effects on distribution of 137Cs-GFO. With regard to tree samples directly contaminated by FNPP accident, concentrations of 137Cs-Fk of coarse roots and stem woods were 100-400 Bq kg-1. Concentrations of 137Cs-Fk of fine to medium roots and branches were higher ranging 400-2000 Bq kg-1. The concentrations of belowground and aboveground tree parts showed the same levels according to the size of organ. This indicated that 137Cs-Fk went around the whole tree within these three years. We figured from the findings about 137Cs-GFO and 137Cs-Fk above that the contaminated roots of trees could be a source of 137Cs transport from trees to soils. Distinguishing biological migration of 137Cs between plants and soil from the secondary surface and vertical physical migration of 137Cs in the soils is a clue to come closer to an important reliable prediction of future distribution of 137Cs discharged from FNPP.

  15. Improvement of Operational Streamflow Prediction with MODIS-derived Fractional Snow Covered Area Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, S.; Burgess, A.; Goodale, C. E.; Mattmann, C. A.; Miller, W. P.; Painter, T. H.; Rittger, K. E.; Stokes, M.; Werner, K.

    2013-12-01

    Water managers in the western United States depend heavily on the timing and magnitude of snowmelt-driven runoff for municipal supply, irrigation, maintenance of environmental flows, and power generation. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) of the National Weather Service issues operational forecasts of snowmelt-driven streamflow for watersheds within the Colorado River Basin (CRB) and eastern Great Basin (EGB), across a wide variety of scales. Therefore, the CBRFC and its stakeholders consider snowpack observations to be highly valuable. Observations of fractional snow covered area (fSCA) from satellite-borne instrumentation can better inform both forecasters and water users with respect to subsequent snowmelt runoff, particularly when combined with observations from ground-based station networks and/or airborne platforms. As part of a multi-year collaborative effort, CBRFC has partnered with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under funding from NASA to incorporate observations of fSCA from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) into the operational CBRFC hydrologic forecasting and modeling process. In the first year of the collaboration, CBRFC and NASA/JPL integrated snow products into the forecasting and decision making processes of the CBRFC and showed preliminary improvement in operational streamflow forecasts. In late 2012, CBRFC and NASA/JPL began retrospective analysis of relationships between the MODIS Snow Covered Area and Grain size (MODSCAG) fSCA and streamflow patterns for several watersheds within the CRB and the EGB. During the 2013 snowmelt runoff season, CBRFC forecasters used MODIS-derived fSCA semi-quantitatively as a binary indicator of the presence or lack of snow. Indication of the presence or lack of snow by MODIS assisted CBRFC forecasters in determining the cause of divergence between modeled and recently observed streamflow. Several examples of improved forecasts from across the CRB and EGB, informed by

  16. Predicting ground-water movement in large mine spoil areas in the Appalachian Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunsch, D.R.; Dinger, J.S.; Graham, C.D.R.

    1999-01-01

    Spoil created by surface mining can accumulate large quantities of ground-water, which can create geotechnical or regulatory problems, as well as flood active mine pits. A current study at a large (4.1 km2), thick, (up to 90 m) spoil body in eastern Kentucky reveals important factors that control the storage and movement of water. Ground-water recharge occurs along the periphery of the spoil body where surface-water drainage is blocked, as well as from infiltration along the spoil-bedrock contact, recharge from adjacent bedrock, and to a minor extent, through macropores at the spoil's surface. Based on an average saturated thickness of 6.4 m for all spoil wells, and assuming an estimated porosity of 20%, approximately 5.2 x 106 m3 of water is stored within the existing 4.1 km2 of reclaimed spoil. A conceptual model of ground-water flow, based on data from monitoring wells, dye-tracing data, discharge from springs and ponds, hydraulic gradients, chemical data, field reconnaissance, and aerial photographs indicate that three distinct but interconnected saturated zones have been established: one in the spoil's interior, and others in the valley fills that surround the main spoil body at lower elevations. Ground-water movement is sluggish in the spoil's interior, but moves quickly through the valley fills. The conceptual model shows that a prediction of ground-water occurrence, movement, and quality can be made for active or abandoned spoil areas if all or some of the following data are available: structural contour of the base of the lowest coal seam being mined, pre-mining topography, documentation of mining methods employed throughout the mine, overburden characteristics, and aerial photographs of mine progression.Spoil created by surface mining can accumulate large quantities of ground-water, which can create geotechnical or regulatory problems, as well as flood active mine pits. A current study at a large (4.1 km2), thick, (up to 90 m) spoil body in eastern

  17. The perceptions of teachers and principals toward providing additional compensation to teachers in high-need subject areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longing, Jeffrey Lucian

    The purpose of this study was to determine possible differences in the perceptions of teachers teaching in high-need areas (i.e., math, science, special education, etc.) and teachers not teaching in high-need areas, (i.e., business education, physical education, etc.) as defined by the states of Arkansas and Louisiana, regarding higher compensation for high-need teachers. In addition, possible perception differences among principals and teachers were determined. The independent variables consisted of gender, position held, years of certified experience, and certification areas. The dependent variable was the perceptions of the participants on providing higher compensation for high-need teachers in order to attract and retain them. The data for all variables were collected using the Teacher Compensation Survey. The sample for this study was limited to teachers, grades 9 through 12, and principals of public high schools in south Arkansas and north Louisiana. Forty-four school districts in south Arkansas (Arkansas Department of Education, 2008a) and north Louisiana (Louisiana Department of Education, 2008a) met the criteria for this study. Twenty-two superintendents gave permission for their districts to participate in the research. A sample of 849 teachers and 38 principals were identified in these districts. Surveys were returned from 350 teachers, creating a 41% response rate. When the 31 principals that returned surveys were added to the total population, the response rate increased to 43% with 381 of the 887 surveyed responding. However, 42 of the teachers and two of the principals skipped some of the questions on the survey and were not included in the study. The researcher used a One-Way ANOVA and independent t-tests to determine the presence of statistical differences at the .05 level. The data showed that most math and science teachers agreed that high-need teachers should be compensated at a higher rate than teachers not teaching in high-need areas. The data

  18. Extensions of Island Biogeography Theory predict the scaling of functional trait composition with habitat area and isolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquet, Claire; Mouillot, David; Kulbicki, Michel; Gravel, Dominique

    2017-02-01

    The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts how area and isolation influence species richness equilibrium on insular habitats. However, the TIB remains silent about functional trait composition and provides no information on the scaling of functional diversity with area, an observation that is now documented in many systems. To fill this gap, we develop a probabilistic approach to predict the distribution of a trait as a function of habitat area and isolation, extending the TIB beyond the traditional species-area relationship. We compare model predictions to the body-size distribution of piscivorous and herbivorous fishes found on tropical reefs worldwide. We find that small and isolated reefs have a higher proportion of large-sized species than large and connected reefs. We also find that knowledge of species body-size and trophic position improves the predictions of fish occupancy on tropical reefs, supporting both the allometric and trophic theory of island biogeography. The integration of functional ecology to island biogeography is broadly applicable to any functional traits and provides a general probabilistic approach to study the scaling of trait distribution with habitat area and isolation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity in individuals with psoriasis: associations with body surface area and subjective disease severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, P B

    2013-10-01

    Psoriasis is associated with serious comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and metabolic syndrome. These comorbidities are related to low physical activity in the general population. Limited research has evaluated physical activity in psoriasis, and thus, the purpose of this investigation was to compare physical activity between individuals with and without psoriasis as well as explore the associations between measures of psoriasis severity and physical activity. Cross-sectional study using data from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Self-reported psoriasis diagnosis and psoriasis severity were regressed on moderate/vigorous physical activity, as measured objectively by accelerometers. Measures of psoriasis severity included rating of psoriasis as a problem in life and body surface area involvement. A total of 4316 individuals had data on psoriasis, moderate/vigorous physical activity, and relevant covariates, with 3.6% (population weighted) of participants (N.=117) reporting a diagnosis of psoriasis. A psoriasis diagnosis was not associated with moderate/vigorous physical activity, and furthermore, body surface area involvement was not associated with moderate/vigorous physical activity among participants with psoriasis. However, every tertile increase in psoriasis as a problem in life was associated with 28% less moderate/vigorous physical activity, which remained significant after adjusting for covariates and removing outliers. While a diagnosis of psoriasis and body surface area involvement do not appear to be associated with less moderate/vigorous physical activity, individuals that rate their psoriasis to be a large problem engage in less moderate/vigorous physical activity.

  20. Improving prediction of secondary structure, local backbone angles, and solvent accessible surface area of proteins by iterative deep learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffernan, Rhys; Paliwal, Kuldip; Lyons, James; Dehzangi, Abdollah; Sharma, Alok; Wang, Jihua; Sattar, Abdul; Yang, Yuedong; Zhou, Yaoqi

    2015-06-22

    Direct prediction of protein structure from sequence is a challenging problem. An effective approach is to break it up into independent sub-problems. These sub-problems such as prediction of protein secondary structure can then be solved independently. In a previous study, we found that an iterative use of predicted secondary structure and backbone torsion angles can further improve secondary structure and torsion angle prediction. In this study, we expand the iterative features to include solvent accessible surface area and backbone angles and dihedrals based on Cα atoms. By using a deep learning neural network in three iterations, we achieved 82% accuracy for secondary structure prediction, 0.76 for the correlation coefficient between predicted and actual solvent accessible surface area, 19° and 30° for mean absolute errors of backbone φ and ψ angles, respectively, and 8° and 32° for mean absolute errors of Cα-based θ and τ angles, respectively, for an independent test dataset of 1199 proteins. The accuracy of the method is slightly lower for 72 CASP 11 targets but much higher than those of model structures from current state-of-the-art techniques. This suggests the potentially beneficial use of these predicted properties for model assessment and ranking.

  1. Intestinal Parasites Coinfection Does Not Alter Plasma Cytokines Profile Elicited in Acute Malaria in Subjects from Endemic Area of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Camilo Sánchez-Arcila

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, malaria is prevalent in the Amazon region and these regions coincide with high prevalence of intestinal parasites but few studies explore the interaction between malaria and other parasites. Therefore, the present study evaluates changes in cytokine, chemokine, C-reactive protein, and nitric oxide (NO concentrations in 264 individuals, comparing plasma from infected individuals with concurrent malaria and intestinal parasites to individuals with either malaria infection alone and uninfected. In the studied population 24% of the individuals were infected with Plasmodium and 18% coinfected with intestinal parasites. Protozoan parasites comprised the bulk of the intestinal parasites infections and subjects infected with intestinal parasites were more likely to have malaria. The use of principal component analysis and cluster analysis associated increased levels of IL-6, TNF-α, IL-10, and CRP and low levels of IL-17A predominantly with individuals with malaria alone and coinfected individuals. In contrast, low levels of almost all inflammatory mediators were associated predominantly with individuals uninfected while increased levels of IL-17A were associated predominantly with individuals with intestinal parasites only. In conclusion, our data suggest that, in our population, the infection with intestinal parasites (mainly protozoan does not modify the pattern of cytokine production in individuals infected with P. falciparum and P. vivax.

  2. Allometric relationships predicting foliar biomass and leaf area:sapwood area ratio from tree height in five Costa Rican rain forest species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo-Alvarado, J C; McDowell, N G; Waring, R H

    2008-11-01

    We developed allometric equations to predict whole-tree leaf area (A(l)), leaf biomass (M(l)) and leaf area to sapwood area ratio (A(l):A(s)) in five rain forest tree species of Costa Rica: Pentaclethra macroloba (Willd.) Kuntze (Fabaceae/Mim), Carapa guianensis Aubl. (Meliaceae), Vochysia ferru-gi-nea Mart. (Vochysiaceae), Virola koshnii Warb. (Myristicaceae) and Tetragastris panamensis (Engl.) Kuntze (Burseraceae). By destructive analyses (n = 11-14 trees per species), we observed strong nonlinear allometric relationships (r(2) > or = 0.9) for predicting A(l) or M(l) from stem diameters or A(s) measured at breast height. Linear relationships were less accurate. In general, A(l):A(s) at breast height increased linearly with tree height except for Penta-clethra, which showed a negative trend. All species, however, showed increased total A(l) with height. The observation that four of the five species increased in A(l):A(s) with height is consistent with hypotheses about trade--offs between morphological and anatomical adaptations that favor efficient water flow through variation in the amount of leaf area supported by sapwood and those imposed by the need to respond quickly to light gaps in the canopy.

  3. Seismologically-consistent prediction of earthquake induced landsliding: Towards near-real time prediction of total landslide volume, total landslide area and regional area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Hovius, Niels; Meunier, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Earthquakes are an important trigger of landslides and can contribute significantly to sedimentary and organic matter fluxes. We present a new seismologically-consistent expression for the prediction of total area and volume of populations of earthquake-induced landslides (Marc et al., 2016) as well as for their regional area of occurrence (Marc et al., 2017). This model implements essential seismic processes, linking key parameters such as ground acceleration, fault size, earthquake source depth and seismic moment. To assess the model we have compiled and normalized estimates of total landslide volume, total landslide area and regional area affected by landslides for 40, 17 and 83 earthquakes, respectively. We have found that low landscape steepness systematically leads to overprediction of the total area and volume of landslides. When this effect is accounted for, the model is able to predict within a factor of 2 the landslide areas and associated volumes for about 70% of the cases in our databases. The prediction of regional area affected do not require a calibration for the landscape steepness and gives a prediction within a factor of 2 for 60% of the database. For 7 out of 10 comprehensive inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95% of the total landslide area. This is a significant improvement on a previously published empirical expression based only on earthquake moment. We discuss some additional parameters that seem required in the model to explain some outliers, such as exceptional rock mass strength in the epicentral area, shaking duration and other seismic source complexities ignored by the model. However, most cases in our catalogue seem to be relatively unaffected by these effects despite the variety of lithologies and tectonic settings they cover. This makes the model suitable for integration into landscape evolution models, and application to the assessment of secondary hazards and

  4. EVALUATION AND PREDICTIVE METHODS OF EPIDEMICAL SITUATION IN THE AREA OF ACUTE ENTERIC INFECTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malysh N.G.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Despite the fact, that nowadays acute intestinal infections (AII sick rate is decreasing, the aggravation of the epidemical situation is always there. Increased attention to AII caused by unpredictable epidemical rises of the AII diseases, which cannot be prevented without assessing the epidemical situation of these infections and forecasting of the levels of sick rate. However, developed mathematical methods of forecasting in most cases do not take into account the risk factors, also they are time-consuming and it is difficult to calculate them; and developed special computer programs, which predict infectious sick rates, are often in the lack in the institutions of sanitary-epidemiological service. An urgent problem for today is establishing of the most influential social and environmental factors, which can make a contribution to the spread of AII. The aim of this work was to improve the method of assessment and prediction of epidemic situation of AII by identifying the influence of climatic and demographic factors. Materials and methods. In order to determine the influence of meteorological and demographic factors on the epidemic process of acute intestinal infections the official reports of the State Sanitary and Epidemiological Service of Ukraine in Sumy region, the Department of Statistics, Sumy Regional Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring have been studied. Results and discussion. The work on the evaluation of the epidemiological situation of the AII begins from collecting data, according to the AII sick rate. The main source of this information is the logbook of infectious diseases, which recorded all sick people that were found in the area. It is necessary to gather the initial information, calculate the sick rate and monthly distribution of AII cases on investigated area and evaluate the tendency. At the same time with accounting of AII cases on investigated territory, takes place a monitoring of air

  5. Using small area estimation and Lidar-derived variables for multivariate prediction of forest attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Mauro; Vicente Monleon; H. Temesgen

    2015-01-01

    Small area estimation (SAE) techniques have been successfully applied in forest inventories to provide reliable estimates for domains where the sample size is small (i.e. small areas). Previous studies have explored the use of either Area Level or Unit Level Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictors (EBLUPs) in a univariate framework, modeling each variable of interest...

  6. Longitudinal Associations of Alcohol Involvement with Subjective Well-Being in Adolescence and Prediction to Alcohol Problems in Early Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, W. Alex; Spoth, Richard L.

    2011-01-01

    Adolescent alcohol involvement is associated with numerous negative outcomes, but also appears to have positive correlates, including subjective well-being. Additional research is needed to understand these paradoxical findings. The current study examines alcohol use, adverse alcohol-related (and other substance-related) consequences, and…

  7. Prediction of functional overreaching from subjective fatigue and readiness to train after only 3 days of cycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Haaf, Twan; van Staveren, Selma; Oudenhoven, Erik; Piacentini, Maria F.; Meeusen, Romain; Roelands, Bart; Koenderman, Leo; Daanen, Hein A.M.; Foster Jr., Carl; De Koning, Jos J.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether monitoring of easily measurable stressors and symptoms can be used to distinguish early between acute fatigue (AF) and functional overreaching (FOR). Methods: The study included 30 subjects (11 female, 19 male; age 40.8 ± 10.8 y, VO2max 51.8 ± 6.3 mL kg-1 min-1) who

  8. Wealth, justice and freedom: Objective and subjective measures predicting poor mental health in a study across eight countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Saskia; Velten, Julia; Neher, Torsten; Margraf, Jürgen

    2017-12-01

    Macro-level factors (MF) such as wealth, justice and freedom measured with objective country-level indicators (objective MF), for instance the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), have been investigated in relation to health and well-being, but rarely in connection with depression, anxiety and stress subsumed as poor mental health. Also, a combination of different objective MF and of how individuals perceive those MF (subjective MF) has not been taken into consideration. In the present study, we combined subjective and objective measures of wealth, justice and freedom and examined their relationship with poor mental health. Population-based interviews were conducted in France, Germany, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, U.K. and U.S.A. (n ≈ 1000 per country). GDP, GINI coefficient, Justice Index and Freedom Index were used as objective MF, whereas subjective MF were perceived wealth, justice and freedom measured at the individual level. Poor mental health was assessed as a combination of symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress. In a random-intercept-model, GINI coefficient and Freedom Index were significant positive country-level, and perceived wealth, justice, and freedom significant negative individual-level predictors of symptoms of poor mental health. Multiple subjective and objective MF should be combined to assess the macrosystem's relationship with poor mental health more precisely. The relationship between MF and poor mental health indicates that the macrosystem should be taken into account as relevant context for mental health problems, too.

  9. Wealth, justice and freedom: Objective and subjective measures predicting poor mental health in a study across eight countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Scholten

    2017-12-01

    Conclusion: Multiple subjective and objective MF should be combined to assess the macrosystem’s relationship with poor mental health more precisely. The relationship between MF and poor mental health indicates that the macrosystem should be taken into account as relevant context for mental health problems, too.

  10. Predicting Ecstasy Use among Young People at Risk: A Prospective Study of Initially Ecstasy-Naive Subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervaeke, Hylke K.E.; Benschop, Annemieke; Van Den Brink, Wim; Korf, Dirk J.

    2008-01-01

    Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged up to 18 years who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy in the near future. After an 11- to…

  11. Ultrasonographic quantification of intrinsic hand muscle cross-sectional area; Reliability and validity for predicting muscle strength

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohseny, Behnam; Nijhuis, Tim H.; Hundepool, Caroline A.; Janssen, Wim G.; Selles, Ruud W.; Coert, J. Henk|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/413641732

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate whether ultrasonographic measurement of the cross-sectional area (CSA) of the intrinsic hand muscles can be used to predict muscle strength in a valid and reliable manner, and to determine if this method can be used for follow-up of patients with peripheral nerve injury

  12. Prediction of the competitive effects of weeds on crop yields based on the relative leaf area of weeds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lotz, L. A. P.; Christensen, Svend; Cloutier, D.

    1996-01-01

    . The results strongly suggest that the predictive ability of the leaf area model needs to be improved before it can be applied in weed management systems. Such improvement would require additional information about effects of abiotic factors on plant development and morphology and the definition of a time...

  13. Concentration and correlations of perfluoroalkyl substances in whole blood among subjects from three different geographical areas in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Chon Rae; Lam, Nguyen Hoang [College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, Chonnam National University, Yeosu 550-749 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Byung Mann [Department of Preventive Medicine and Occupational Medicine, School of Medicine, Pusan National University, Yangsan 626-770 (Korea, Republic of); Kannan, Kurunthachalam [Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health and Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, State University of New York at Albany, Empire State Plaza PO Box 509, Albany, NY 12201-0509 (United States); Cho, Hyeon Seo, E-mail: hscho@jnu.ac.kr [College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, Chonnam National University, Yeosu 550-749 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-04-15

    blood were found in Korea. • Gender was found to influence the concentrations of PFOA, PFNA, PFHxS and PFOSA. • Significant positive associations between PFAS levels and age of subjects were found. • Occupation was a determinant for PFNA and PFHxS concentrations.

  14. An Analysis of Document Category Prediction Responses to Classifier Model Parameter Treatment Permutations within the Software Design Patterns Subject Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankau, Brian L.

    2009-01-01

    This empirical study evaluates the document category prediction effectiveness of Naive Bayes (NB) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) classifier treatments built from different feature selection and machine learning settings and trained and tested against textual corpora of 2300 Gang-Of-Four (GOF) design pattern documents. Analysis of the experiment's…

  15. Differential sensitivity of the three ASI factors in predicting panic disorder patients' subjective and behavioral response to hyperventilation challenge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brown, M.; Smits, J.A.J.; Powers, M.B.; Telch, M.J.

    2003-01-01

    The overall aim of the present investigation was to examine the association between the subscales of the ASI and emotional responding to voluntary hyperventilation challenge in a panic disorder population. Based on findings from [J. Abnorm. Psychol. 110 (2001) 372.], we predicted that the

  16. Prediction of Experimental Rainfall-Eroded Soil Area Based on S-Shaped Growth Curve Model Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Nie

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-induced soil erosion of a mountain area plays a significant role in supplying sediment and shaping the landscape. The related area of soil erosion, as an index of the changed landscape, is easier to calculate visually using some popular imaging tools. By image analysis, our work shows that the changing of the soil erosion area admits the structure of an S-growth curve. Therefore, we propose to establish an S-curve model, based on incremental learning, to predict the soil erosion area. In the process of incremental learning, we dynamically update the accumulative rainfall and rainfall intensity to train the parameters of our S-curve model. In order to verify our prediction model, the index of area is utilized to express the output of eroded soil in a series of experiments. The results show that the proposed S-growth curve model can be used to estimate the growth of the soil erosion area (average relative error 3%–9.7% according to variable soil material and rainfall intensity. The original S-growth curve model can calculate the erosion areas of just one soil material and one rainfall condition whose average relative error is 7.5%–12.2%; compared to the simple time series analysis-moving average method (average relative error 5.7%–12.1%, our proposed S-growth curve model can reveal the physical mechanism and evolution of the research object.

  17. Exploring the areas of applicability of whole-genome prediction methods for Asian rice (Oryza sativa L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onogi, Akio; Ideta, Osamu; Inoshita, Yuto; Ebana, Kaworu; Yoshioka, Takuma; Yamasaki, Masanori; Iwata, Hiroyoshi

    2015-01-01

    Our simulation results clarify the areas of applicability of nine prediction methods and suggest the factors that affect their accuracy at predicting empirical traits. Whole-genome prediction is used to predict genetic value from genome-wide markers. The choice of method is important for successful prediction. We compared nine methods using empirical data for eight phenological and morphological traits of Asian rice cultivars (Oryza sativa L.) and data simulated from real marker genotype data. The methods were genomic BLUP (GBLUP), reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regression (RKHS), Lasso, elastic net, random forest (RForest), Bayesian lasso (Blasso), extended Bayesian lasso (EBlasso), weighted Bayesian shrinkage regression (wBSR), and the average of all methods (Ave). The objectives were to evaluate the predictive ability of these methods in a cultivar population, to characterize them by exploring the area of applicability of each method using simulation, and to investigate the causes of their different accuracies for empirical traits. GBLUP was the most accurate for one trait, RKHS and Ave for two, and RForest for three traits. In the simulation, Blasso, EBlasso, and Ave showed stable performance across the simulated scenarios, whereas the other methods, except wBSR, had specific areas of applicability; wBSR performed poorly in most scenarios. For each method, the accuracy ranking for the empirical traits was largely consistent with that in one of the simulated scenarios, suggesting that the simulation conditions reflected the factors that affected the method accuracy for the empirical results. This study will be useful for genomic prediction not only in Asian rice, but also in populations from other crops with relatively small training sets and strong linkage disequilibrium structures.

  18. Wealth, justice and freedom: Objective and subjective measures predicting poor mental health in a study across eight countries

    OpenAIRE

    Saskia Scholten; Julia Velten; Torsten Neher; Jürgen Margraf

    2017-01-01

    Background: Macro-level factors (MF) such as wealth, justice and freedom measured with objective country-level indicators (objective MF), for instance the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), have been investigated in relation to health and well-being, but rarely in connection with depression, anxiety and stress subsumed as poor mental health. Also, a combination of different objective MF and of how individuals perceive those MF (subjective MF) has not been taken into consideration. In the present s...

  19. Wealth, justice and freedom: Objective and subjective measures predicting poor mental health in a study across eight countries

    OpenAIRE

    Scholten, Saskia; Velten, Julia; Neher, Torsten; Margraf, Jürgen

    2017-01-01

    Background Macro-level factors (MF) such as wealth, justice and freedom measured with objective country-level indicators (objective MF), for instance the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), have been investigated in relation to health and well-being, but rarely in connection with depression, anxiety and stress subsumed as poor mental health. Also, a combination of different objective MF and of how individuals perceive those MF (subjective MF) has not been taken into consideration. In the present st...

  20. Comparison of Predicted Exercise Capacity Equations and the Effect of Actual versus Ideal Body Weight among Subjects Undergoing Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Reza Ahmadian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Oxygen uptake at maximal exercise (VO2 max is considered the best available index for assessment of exercise capacity. The purpose of this study is to determine if the use of actual versus ideal body weight in standard regression equations for predicted VO2 max results in differences in predicted VO2 max. Methods. This is a retrospective chart review of patients who were predominantly in active military duty with complaints of dyspnea or exercise tolerance and who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET from 2007 to 2009. Results. A total of 230 subjects completed CPET on a bicycle ergometer with a male predominance (62% and an average age of 37 ± 15 years. There was significant discordance between the measured VO2 max and predicted VO2 max when measured by the Hansen and Wasserman reference equations (P<0.001. Specifically, there was less overestimation when predicted VO2 max was based on ideal body weight as opposed to actual body weight. Conclusion. Our retrospective analysis confirmed the wide variations in predicted versus measured VO2 max based on varying prediction equations and showed the potential advantage of using ideal body weight as opposed to actual body weight in order to further standardize reference norms.

  1. Vehicle navigation in populated areas using predictive control with environmental uncertainty handling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skrzypczyk Krzysztof

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of navigating an autonomous vehicle using environmental dynamics prediction. The usefulness of the Game Against Nature formalism adapted to modelling environmental prediction uncertainty is discussed. The possibility of the control law synthesis on the basis of strategies against Nature is presented. The properties and effectiveness of the approach presented are verified by simulations carried out in MATLAB.

  2. "Mixed Effects Prediction under Benchmarking and Applications to Small Area Estimation"

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    The empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) in the linear mixed model (LMM) is useful for the small area estimation in the sense of increasing the precision of estimation of small area means. However, one potential difficulty of EBLUP is that when aggregated, the overall estimate for a larger geographical area may be quite different from the corresponding direct estimate like the overall sample mean. One way to solve this problem is the benchmarking approach, and the constrained EBLU...

  3. A method for predicting the risk of virtual crashes in a simulated driving task using behavioural and subjective drowsiness measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murata, Atsuo; Naitoh, Kensuke; Karwowski, Waldemar

    2017-05-01

    This study proposed a procedure for predicting the point in time with high risk of virtual crash using a control chart methodology for behavioural measures during a simulated driving task. Tracking error, human back pressure, sitting pressure and horizontal and vertical neck bending angles were measured during the simulated driving task. The time with a high risk of a virtual crash occurred in 9 out of 10 participants. The time interval between the successfully detected point in time with high risk of virtual crash and the point in time of virtual crash ranged from 80 to 324 s. The proposed procedure for predicting the point in time with a high risk of a crash is promising for warning drivers of the state of high risk of crash. Practitioner Summary: Many fatal crashes occur due to drowsy driving. We proposed a method to predict the point in time with high risk of virtual crash before such a virtual crash occurs. This is done using behavioural measures during a simulated driving task. The effectiveness of the method is also demonstrated.

  4. An Adaptive Model Predictive Load Frequency Control Method for Multi-Area Interconnected Power Systems with Photovoltaic Generations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Qiang Zeng

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available As the penetration level of renewable distributed generations such as wind turbine generator and photovoltaic stations increases, the load frequency control issue of a multi-area interconnected power system becomes more challenging. This paper presents an adaptive model predictive load frequency control method for a multi-area interconnected power system with photovoltaic generation by considering some nonlinear features such as a dead band for governor and generation rate constraint for steam turbine. The dynamic characteristic of this system is formulated as a discrete-time state space model firstly. Then, the predictive dynamic model is obtained by introducing an expanded state vector, and rolling optimization of control signal is implemented based on a cost function by minimizing the weighted sum of square predicted errors and square future control values. The simulation results on a typical two-area power system consisting of photovoltaic and thermal generator have demonstrated the superiority of the proposed model predictive control method to these state-of-the-art control techniques such as firefly algorithm, genetic algorithm, and population extremal optimization-based proportional-integral control methods in cases of normal conditions, load disturbance and parameters uncertainty.

  5. Effect of toe-spread-out exercise on hallux valgus angle and cross-sectional area of abductor hallucis muscle in subjects with hallux valgus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Moon-Hwan; Yi, Chung-Hwi; Weon, Jong-Hyuck; Cynn, Heon-Seock; Jung, Do-Young; Kwon, Oh-Yun

    2015-04-01

    [Purpose] This study investigated whether the toe-spread-out exercise affects the hallux valgus angle, the cross-sectional area of the abductor hallucis muscle, and the hallux valgus angle during active abduction. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty-four subjects with hallux valgus were randomly assigned to orthosis and orthosis plus toe-spread-out exercise groups. The orthosis group wore the orthosis for 8 weeks, while the orthosis plus toe-spread-out group also performed the toe-spread-out exercise. The hallux valgus angle, the cross-sectional area of the abductor hallucis muscle, and the hallux valgus angle during active abduction were measured initially and after 8 weeks by radiography and ultrasonography. [Results] While there were no significant changes in the three parameters in the orthosis group, there were significant differences in the orthosis plus toe-spread-out exercise group after 8 weeks. In addition there were significant differences in the three measures between the two groups. [Conclusion] The toe-spread-out exercise reduces the hallux valgus angle and hallux valgus angle during active abduction, and increases the cross-sectional area of the abductor hallucis muscle. The toe-spread-out exercise is recommended for patients with mild to moderate hallux valgus.

  6. Left atrial mechanics strongly predict functional capacity assessed by cardiopulmonary exercise testing in subjects without structural heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leite, Luís; Mendes, Sofia Lázaro; Baptista, Rui; Teixeira, Rogério; Oliveira-Santos, Manuel; Ribeiro, Nelson; Coutinho, Rosa; Monteiro, Victor; Martins, Rui; Castro, Graça; Ferreira, Maria João; Pego, Mariano

    2017-05-01

    Left atrium function is essential for cardiovascular performance and is evaluable by two-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiography (2D-STE). Our aim was to determine how echocardiographic parameters interrelate with exercise capacity and ventilatory efficiency in subjects with no structural heart disease. Asymptomatic volunteers, in sinus rhythm and with normal biventricular size and function, were recruited from a community-based population. Individuals with moderate-to-severe valvular disease, pulmonary hypertension, and history of cardiac disease were excluded. We performed a transthoracic echocardiogram and assessed left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) mechanics via 2D-STE. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing by treadmill took place immediately thereafter. Peak oxygen uptake (VO2) served as measure of functional capacity and ventilation/carbon dioxide output (VE/VCO2) slope as surrogate of ventilation/perfusion mismatch. 20 subjects were included (age 51 ± 14 years, male gender 65%). Peak VO2 strongly correlated with age (r = -0.83; P mechanics, particularly with LA conduit strain rate (SR) (r = -0.82; P mechanics. A similar pattern of associations was identified for VE/VCO2 slope. In multivariate analysis, LA conduit SR (β = -0.69; P = 0.02) emerged as sole independent correlate of peak VO2, adjusted for age and for E/e' ratio (adjusted r 2  = 0.76; P mechanics displayed strong associations with peak VO2 and VE/VCO2 slope. LA conduit-phase SR seems best suited as echocardiographic marker of functional capacity in subjects with no structural heart disease.

  7. Plasma triacylglycerol and coagulation factor concentrations predict the anticoagulant effect of dietary fish oil in overweight subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vanschoonbeek, Kristof; Feijge, Marion A H; Saris, Wim H M

    2007-01-01

    potential) was determined as an integrated measure of plasma coagulant activity. In both studies, multivariate analysis indicated a strong clustering of fasting concentrations of triacylglycerols, prothrombin, factor V, factor VII, and factor X with one another at baseline. This cluster of factors...... determined partly the interindividual variation in thrombin generation, of which prothrombin and triacylglycerol concentrations were the main determinants. In both healthy subjects and diabetes patients, high triacylglycerol concentrations (>1.69 mmol/L) at baseline were closely linked to a strong fish oil...

  8. A Mathematical Method to Calculate Tumor Contact Surface Area: An Effective Parameter to Predict Renal Function after Partial Nephrectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Po-Fan; Wang, Yu-De; Huang, Chi-Ping; Wu, Hsi-Chin; Yang, Che-Rei; Chen, Guang-Heng; Chang, Chao-Hsiang

    2016-07-01

    We proposed a mathematical formula to calculate contact surface area between a tumor and renal parenchyma. We examined the applicability of using contact surface area to predict renal function after partial nephrectomy. We performed this retrospective study in patients who underwent partial nephrectomy between January 2012 and December 2014. Based on abdominopelvic computerized tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, we calculated the contact surface area using the formula (2*π*radius*depth) developed by integral calculus. We then evaluated the correlation between contact surface area and perioperative parameters, and compared contact surface area and R.E.N.A.L. (Radius/Exophytic/endophytic/Nearness to collecting system/Anterior/Location) score in predicting a reduction in renal function. Overall 35, 26 and 45 patients underwent partial nephrectomy with open, laparoscopic and robotic approaches, respectively. Mean ± SD contact surface area was 30.7±26.1 cm(2) and median (IQR) R.E.N.A.L. score was 7 (2.25). Spearman correlation analysis showed that contact surface area was significantly associated with estimated blood loss (p=0.04), operative time (p=0.04) and percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (p filtration rate (p filtration rate compared to R.E.N.A.L. score (AUC 0.86 vs 0.69). Using this simple mathematical method, contact surface area was associated with surgical outcomes. Compared to R.E.N.A.L. score, contact surface area was a better predictor of functional change after partial nephrectomy. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Long-term growth and water balance predictions for a mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forest catchment subject to clear-felling and regeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vertessy, R. A.; Hatton, T. J.; Benyon, R. G.; Dawes, W. R.

    1996-01-01

    We used a physically based ecohydrological model to predict the water balance and growth responses of a mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans F. Muell.) forest catchment to clear-felling and regeneration. The model, Topog-IRM, was applied to a 0.53 km(2) catchment for a 3-year pretreatment period, and a 20-year period following clear-felling and reseeding of 78% of the catchment area. Simulations were evaluated by comparing observed and predicted streamflows, rainfall interception and soil water values. The model faithfully simulated observed temporal patterns of overstory live stem carbon gain and produced a leaf area trajectory consistent with field observations. Cumulative throughfall was predicted within 1% of observations over an 18-year period. Over a 4-year period, predicted soil water storage in the upper 1.5 m of soil agreed well with field observations. There was fair correspondence between observed and predicted daily streamflows, and the model explained 76% of the variation in monthly flows. Over the 23-year simulation period, the model overpredicted cumulative streamflow by 6%. We argue that there is a useful role for physically based ecohydrological models in the management of mountain ash forest catchments that cannot be satisfied by simple empirical approaches.

  10. Predicting the Permanent Safe Donor Area for Hair Transplantation in Koreans with Male Pattern Baldness according to the Position of the Parietal Whorl

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Young Cheon; Moh, Jae Seong; Lee, Seung Yong; You, Seung Hyun

    2014-01-01

    Background The most crucial factor in hair transplantation for male pattern baldness (MPB) patients is the efficient utilization of the donor-recipient ratio. However, there is no known factor that scientifically predicts the rate of progression of alopecia or indicates a permanently safe donor area. Methods The study considered 1,008 Korean adult males with MPB; of these, it excluded 56 males with an absence of parietal whorls (PWs). The authors investigated the distance from the vertical bimeatal line (VM) to the PW, from the PW to the upper border of the helical rim (HR), and the distance from the PW to the occipital fringe (OF) in 952 subjects with a PW. Furthermore, we examined the distance from the PW to the OF considering the duration of alopecia and age in 322 subjects with vertex alopecia. Results The distance between the VM and PW varied from 1.5 to 11 cm, with an average distance of 6.25 cm. The PW-HR distance ranged from 3.4 to 17.5 cm, and the average distance was 7.79 cm. The PW-OF distance ranged from 0.5 to 5.5 cm, and the average distance was 2.37 cm. Conclusions For the PW, very large variations existed in the vertical direction. The position of the PW could predict the progression range of the total alopecia of the vertex. Alopecia mostly progresses within 6 cm of the PW toward the occipital side. PMID:24883280

  11. Predicting the Permanent Safe Donor Area for Hair Transplantation in Koreans with Male Pattern Baldness according to the Position of the Parietal Whorl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Hyun Park

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background The most crucial factor in hair transplantation for male pattern baldness (MPB patients is the efficient utilization of the donor-recipient ratio. However, there is no known factor that scientifically predicts the rate of progression of alopecia or indicates a permanently safe donor area. Methods The study considered 1,008 Korean adult males with MPB; of these, it excluded 56 males with an absence of parietal whorls (PWs. The authors investigated the distance from the vertical bimeatal line (VM to the PW, from the PW to the upper border of the helical rim (HR, and the distance from the PW to the occipital fringe (OF in 952 subjects with a PW. Furthermore, we examined the distance from the PW to the OF considering the duration of alopecia and age in 322 subjects with vertex alopecia. Results The distance between the VM and PW varied from 1.5 to 11 cm, with an average distance of 6.25 cm. The PW-HR distance ranged from 3.4 to 17.5 cm, and the average distance was 7.79 cm. The PW-OF distance ranged from 0.5 to 5.5 cm, and the average distance was 2.37 cm. Conclusions For the PW, very large variations existed in the vertical direction. The position of the PW could predict the progression range of the total alopecia of the vertex. Alopecia mostly progresses within 6 cm of the PW toward the occipital side.

  12. First application of the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion risk in fire-affected volcanic areas in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neris, Jonay; Robichaud, Peter R.; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Notario del Pino, Jesús S.; Lado, Marcos

    2017-04-01

    An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

  13. An analysis of subject areas and country participation for all health-related projects in the EU's FP5 and FP6 programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galsworthy, Michael J; Irwin, Rachel; Charlesworth, Kate; Ernst, Kelly; Hristovski, Dimitar; Wismar, Matthias; McKee, Martin

    2014-06-01

    Previous analyses concerning health components of European Union (EU)-funded research have shown low project participation levels of the 12 newest member states (EU-12). Additionally, there has been a lack of subject-area analysis. In the Health Research for Europe project, we screened all projects of the EU's Framework Programmes for research FP5 and FP6 (1998-2006) to identify health research projects and describe participation by country and subject area. FP5 and FP6 project databases were acquired and screened by coders to identify health-related projects, which were then categorized according to the 47 divisions of the EU Health Portal (N = 2728 projects) plus an extra group of 'basic/biotech' projects (N = 1743). Country participation and coordination rates for projects were also analyzed. Approximately 20% of the 26 946 projects (value €29.2bn) were health-related (N = 4756. Value €6.04bn). Within the health categories, the largest expenditures were cancer (11.9%), 'other' (i.e. not mental health or cardiovascular) non-communicable diseases (9.5%) and food safety (9.4%). One hundred thirty-two countries participated in these projects. Of the 27 EU countries (and five partner countries), north-western and Nordic states acquired more projects per capita. The UK led coordination with > 20% of projects. EU-12 countries were generally under-represented for participation and coordination. Combining our findings with the associated literature, we comment on drivers determining distribution of participation and funds across countries and subject areas. Additionally, we discuss changes needed in the core EU projects database to provide greater transparency, data exploitation and return on investment in health research. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  14. [Predict factors associated with malnutrition from patient generated subjective global assessment (PG-SGA) in head and neck cancer patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arribas, L; Hurtós, L; Milà, R; Fort, E; Peiró, I

    2013-01-01

    Patient Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) is a validated tool for nutrition evaluation in patients with cancer. The aim of our study was to estimate the prevalence of malnutrition in head and neck cancer patients at diagnosis and evaluate the independent prognostic factors for malnutrition from PG-SGA. All outpatients attending at the Head and Neck Cancer Multidisciplinary Meeting for primary diagnosis, staging and treatment were evaluated by an oncology dietitian using the patient generated subjective global assessment (PG-SGA). Patients with recurrences or secondary tumours will be excluded. 64 patients were evaluated (55 men and 9 women) with an average age of 63 years and body mass index (BMI) of 25.3 kg/m(2) (SD ± 5.18). After the nutritional assessment we observed that 43.8% of patients were malnourished or at risk of malnutrition. The most frequent symptom at diagnosis was dysphagia (48.4%) and anorexia (26.6%). From PG-SGA, the main prognostic factors (p<0,001) were the percentage of weight loss, serum albumin levels, BMI and the presence of dysphagia or/and anorexia prior diagnosis. Parameters as BMI, weight loss and low albumin levels at the time of diagnosis in head and neck cancer patients are independent predictors for malnutrition as well as the presence of anorexia or dysphagia.reaffirms the need for sustainability of interventions over time. Copyright © AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2013. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  15. Bayesian Predictive Inference of a Proportion Under a Twofold Small-Area Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandram Balgobin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We extend the twofold small-area model of Stukel and Rao (1997; 1999 to accommodate binary data. An example is the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS, in which pass-fail data for mathematics of students from US schools (clusters are available at the third grade by regions and communities (small areas. We compare the finite population proportions of these small areas. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model in which the firststage binary responses have independent Bernoulli distributions, and each subsequent stage is modeled using a beta distribution, which is parameterized by its mean and a correlation coefficient. This twofold small-area model has an intracluster correlation at the first stage and an intercluster correlation at the second stage. The final-stage mean and all correlations are assumed to be noninformative independent random variables. We show how to infer the finite population proportion of each area. We have applied our models to synthetic TIMSS data to show that the twofold model is preferred over a onefold small-area model that ignores the clustering within areas. We further compare these models using a simulation study, which shows that the intracluster correlation is particularly important.

  16. Incorporation of CT-based measurements of trunk anatomy into subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the spine influences vertebral loading predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, Alexander G; Mokhtarzadeh, Hossein; Allaire, Brett T; Velie, Kelsey R; De Paolis Kaluza, M Clara; Anderson, Dennis E; Bouxsein, Mary L

    2017-10-01

    We created subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the thoracolumbar spine by incorporating spine curvature and muscle morphology measurements from computed tomography (CT) scans to determine the degree to which vertebral compressive and shear loading estimates are sensitive to variations in trunk anatomy. We measured spine curvature and trunk muscle morphology using spine CT scans of 125 men, and then created four different thoracolumbar spine models for each person: (i) height and weight adjusted (Ht/Wt models); (ii) height, weight, and spine curvature adjusted (+C models); (iii) height, weight, and muscle morphology adjusted (+M models); and (iv) height, weight, spine curvature, and muscle morphology adjusted (+CM models). We determined vertebral compressive and shear loading at three regions of the spine (T8, T12, and L3) for four different activities. Vertebral compressive loads predicted by the subject-specific CT-based musculoskeletal models were between 54% lower to 45% higher from those estimated using musculoskeletal models adjusted only for subject height and weight. The impact of subject-specific information on vertebral loading estimates varied with the activity and spinal region. Vertebral loading estimates were more sensitive to incorporation of subject-specific spinal curvature than subject-specific muscle morphology. Our results indicate that individual variations in spine curvature and trunk muscle morphology can have a major impact on estimated vertebral compressive and shear loads, and thus should be accounted for when estimating subject-specific vertebral loading. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 35:2164-2173, 2017. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Predicted tyre-soil interface area and vertical stress distribution based on loading characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjønning, Per; Stettler, M.; Keller, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    available data. We used multiple regression to identify equations for predicting the FRIDA model parameters from measured loading characteristics including tyre carcass volume (VT), wheel load (FW), tyre deflection (L), and an expression of tyre inflation pressure (Kr) calculated as the natural logarithm...

  18. Identification, prediction and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gutiérrez; Cooper, Anthony; Johnson, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Sinkholes usually have a higher probability of occurrence and a greater genetic diversity in evaporite terrains than in carbonate karst areas. This is because evaporites have a higher solubility, and commonly a lower mechanical strength. Subsidence damage resulting from evaporite dissolution generates substantial losses throughout the world, but the causes are only well-understood in a few areas. To deal with these hazards, a phased approach is needed for sinkhole identification, inv...

  19. Predicting toxic effects of copper on aquatic biota in mineralized areas by using the Biotic Ligand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kathleen S.; Ranville, James F.; Adams, M.; Choate, LaDonna M.; Church, Stan E.; Fey, David L.; Wanty, Richard B.; Crock, James G.

    2006-01-01

    The chemical speciation of metals influences their biological effects. The Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) is a computational approach to predict chemical speciation and acute toxicological effects of metals on aquatic biota. Recently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency incorporated the BLM into their regulatory water-quality criteria for copper. Results from three different laboratory copper toxicity tests were compared with BLM predictions for simulated test-waters. This was done to evaluate the ability of the BLM to accurately predict the effects of hardness and concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and iron on aquatic toxicity. In addition, we evaluated whether the BLM and the three toxicity tests provide consistent results. Comparison of BLM predictions with two types of Ceriodaphnia dubia toxicity tests shows that there is fairly good agreement between predicted LC50 values computed by the BLM and LC50 values determined from the two toxicity tests. Specifically, the effect of increasing calcium concentration (and hardness) on copper toxicity appears to be minimal. Also, there is fairly good agreement between the BLM and the two toxicity tests for test solutions containing elevated DOC, for which the LC50 is 3-to-5 times greater (less toxic) than the LC50 for the lower-DOC test water. This illustrates the protective effects of DOC on copper toxicity and demonstrates the ability of the BLM to predict these protective effects. In contrast, for test solutions with added iron there is a decrease in LC50 values (increase in toxicity) in results from the two C. dubia toxicity tests, and the agreement between BLM LC50 predictions and results from these toxicity tests is poor. The inability of the BLM to account for competitive iron binding to DOC or DOC fractionation may be a significant shortcoming of the BLM for predicting site- specific water-quality criteria in streams affected by iron-rich acidic drainage in mined and mineralized areas.

  20. Simple models for predicting leaf area of mango (Mangifera indica L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Ghoreishi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mango (Mangifera indica L., one of the most popular tropical fruits, is cultivated in a considerable part of southern Iran. Leaf area is a valuable parameter in mango research, especially plant physiological and nutrition field. Most of available methods for estimating plant leaf area are difficult to apply, expensive and destructive which could in turn destroy the canopy and consequently make it difficult to perform further tests on the same plant. Therefore, a non-destructive method which is simple, inexpensive, and could yield an accurate estimation of leaf area will be a great benefit to researchers. A regression analysis was performed in order to determine the relationship between the leaf area and leaf width, leaf length, dry and fresh weight. For this purpose 50 mango seedlings of local selections were randomly took from a nursery in the Hormozgan province, and different parts of plants were separated in laboratory. Leaf area was measured by different method included leaf area meter, planimeter, ruler (length and width and the fresh and dry weight of leaves were also measured. The best regression models were statistically selected using Determination Coefficient, Maximum Error, Model Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error and Coefficient of Residual Mass. Overall, based on regression equation, a satisfactory estimation of leaf area was obtained by measuring the non-destructive parameters, i.e. number of leaf per seedling, length of the longest and width of widest leaf (R2 = 0.88 and also destructive parameters, i.e. dry weight (R2 = 0.94 and fresh weight (R2= 0.94 of leaves.

  1. Spatial prediction of topsoil texture in Region Centre (France) combining regression and area-to-point kriging

    OpenAIRE

    Roman Dobarco, Mercedes; Orton, Thomas G; Saby, Nicolas; Mulder, Vera Laetitia; Drufin, Sébastien; Lemercier, Blandine; Arrouays, Dominique

    2015-01-01

    Land use and agricultural practices, in interaction with soil texture, influence soil fauna and soil microbial community, water holding capacity, and C and nutrient cycling among other agroecosystem properties. Detailed knowledge on the spatial distribution of soil texture can improve land-use planning and crop management. Our objective was to predict soil texture in agricultural land for the Region Centre (France), combining regression models and area-to-point kriging. The French soil-test d...

  2. Long-term settlement prediction at open dumping area using Hossein and Gabr method for new development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauzi, Nur Irfah Mohd; Shariffuddin, Ahmad Sulaimi; Omar, Husaini; Misran, Halina

    2017-07-01

    In Malaysia, the most common method of disposal is landfill/open dumping. The soil at the dumping area are mixed with waste and soil. Thus, it was called as waste soil. Due to its heterogeneity properties, waste soil has a different settlement rate because different types of waste tends to settle differently. The Hussein and Gabr model which used empirical model was proposed to compute the long-term settlement. This Hussein and Gabr model is one of the soil settlement model that can be used to predict the long-term settlement at the dumping area. The model relates between the compression index and the time factor. The time factor are t1, t2, t3 and t4. The compression index is Cα1=compression index and Cβ is biodegradation index. The duration for initial compression, the compression, the biological compression and time creep are included in the model. The sample of waste soil is taken from closed dumping area in Lukut, Negeri Sembilan with the height of waste approximately 1 to 3 meters. The sample is tested using consolidation test for determining the geotechnical parameters and compressibility index. Based on the Hossein and Gabr model, the predicted long-term settlement for 20 years (ΔH) for the waste height of 1 to 3 meters are 0.21m, 0.42m and 0.63m respectively and are below the percentages of proposed maximum settlement for waste soil which is acceptable for new development to takes place.. The types of deep or shallow foundation are proposed based on the predicted settlement. The abandoned open dumping area can now be reused for the new development after the long-term settlement are predicted and some of the precaution measures has been taken as a safety measures.

  3. [Nicotine dependence, smoking-related attitude, and subjective norms across the stages of change for smoking cessation among adults smokers in a rural area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young Hee; Seo, Nam Sook; Kang, Hae Young

    2006-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify nicotine dependence, smoking-related attitude, and subjective norms across the stages of change for smoking cessation among adult smokers in a rural area. The subjects were 276 current smokers (male=243, female=33). There were 3 stages of change for smoking cessation: pre-contemplation, contemplation, and preparation stage. Data was collected by an interview or self-reporting from February 12th to March 5th 2004, and analyzed with frequency, percentage, chi- square-test, Fisher's exact probability test, ANOVA, and Scheffe test using the SPSS-PC program. According to the stages of change, 114(41.3%) current smokers were in pre-contemplation, 110(39.9%) in contemplation, and 52(18.8%) in the preparation stage. There was a higher percentage of males than females (chi- square=8.99, p=.011) in the preparation stage. The mean score of the smoking-related attitude (F=7.43, p=.001) and subjective norm(F=27.41, p=.001) were both lowest in the pre-contemplation stage and increased positively during the stages of change for smoking cessation. Based on these findings, the authors recommend that community-based smoking cessation programs should be developed by considering the intention or motives of current smokers and should be initiated in the preparation stage and primarily for male groups.

  4. Predicting Potential Risk Areas of Human Plague for the Western Usambara Mountains, Lushoto District, Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neerinckx, Simon; Peterson, A. Townsend; Gulinck, Hubert; Deckers, Jozef; Kimaro, Didas; Leirs, Herwig

    2010-01-01

    A natural focus of plague exists in the Western Usambara Mountains of Tanzania. Despite intense research, questions remain as to why and how plague emerges repeatedly in the same suite of villages. We used human plague incidence data for 1986–2003 in an ecological-niche modeling framework to explore the geographic distribution and ecology of human plague. Our analyses indicate that plague occurrence is related directly to landscape-scale environmental features, yielding a predictive understanding of one set of environmental factors affecting plague transmission in East Africa. Although many environmental variables contribute significantly to these models, the most important are elevation and Enhanced Vegetation Index derivatives. Projections of these models across broader regions predict only 15.5% (under a majority-rule threshold) or 31,997 km2 of East Africa as suitable for plague transmission, but they successfully anticipate most known foci in the region, making possible the development of a risk map of plague. PMID:20207880

  5. 3D transient model to predict temperature and ablated areas during laser processing of metallic surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak. B. Naghshine

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Laser processing is one of the most popular small-scale patterning methods and has many applications in semiconductor device fabrication and biomedical engineering. Numerical modelling of this process can be used for better understanding of the process, optimization, and predicting the quality of the final product. An accurate 3D model is presented here for short laser pulses that can predict the ablation depth and temperature distribution on any section of the material in a minimal amount of time. In this transient model, variations of thermal properties, plasma shielding, and phase change are considered. Ablation depth was measured using a 3D optical profiler. Calculated depths are in good agreement with measured values on laser treated titanium surfaces. The proposed model can be applied to a wide range of materials and laser systems.

  6. Predicting potential risk areas of human plague for the Western Usambara Mountains, Lushoto District, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neerinckx, Simon; Peterson, A Townsend; Gulinck, Hubert; Deckers, Jozef; Kimaro, Didas; Leirs, Herwig

    2010-03-01

    A natural focus of plague exists in the Western Usambara Mountains of Tanzania. Despite intense research, questions remain as to why and how plague emerges repeatedly in the same suite of villages. We used human plague incidence data for 1986-2003 in an ecological-niche modeling framework to explore the geographic distribution and ecology of human plague. Our analyses indicate that plague occurrence is related directly to landscape-scale environmental features, yielding a predictive understanding of one set of environmental factors affecting plague transmission in East Africa. Although many environmental variables contribute significantly to these models, the most important are elevation and Enhanced Vegetation Index derivatives. Projections of these models across broader regions predict only 15.5% (under a majority-rule threshold) or 31,997 km(2) of East Africa as suitable for plague transmission, but they successfully anticipate most known foci in the region, making possible the development of a risk map of plague.

  7. Canopy Surface Reconstruction and Tropical Forest Parameters Prediction from Airborne Laser Scanner for Large Forest Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Z.; Yang, Z.; Chen, Y.; Wang, C.; Qian, J.; Yang, Q.; Chen, X.; Lei, J.

    2017-10-01

    Canopy height model(CHM) and tree mean height are critical forestry parameters that many other parameters such as growth, carbon sequestration, standing timber volume, and biomass can be derived from. LiDAR is a new method used to rapidly estimate these parameters over large areas. The estimation of these parameters has been derived successfully from CHM. However, a number of challenges limit the accurate retrieval of tree height and crowns, especially in tropical forest area. In this study, an improved canopy estimation model is proposed based on dynamic moving window that applied on LiDAR point cloud data. DEM, DSM and CHM of large tropical forest area can be derived from LiDAR data effectively and efficiently.

  8. T-wave area predicts response to cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with left bundle branch block.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engels, Elien B; Végh, Eszter M; Van Deursen, Caroline J M; Vernooy, Kevin; Singh, Jagmeet P; Prinzen, Frits W

    2015-02-01

    Chronic heart failure patients with a left ventricular (LV) conduction delay, mostly due to left bundle branch block (LBBB), generally derive benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, 30-50% of patients do not show a clear response to CRT. We investigated whether T-wave analysis of the ECG can improve patient selection. The study population comprised 244 CRT recipients with baseline 12-lead electrocardiogram recordings. Echocardiographic response after 6-month CRT was defined as a ≥5% increase in LV ejection fraction (LVEF). Vectorcardiograms (VCGs) were constructed from the measured 12-lead ECGs using an adapted Kors algorithm on digitized ECGs. Logistic regression models indicated repolarization variables as good predictors of CRT response. The VCG-derived T-wave area predicted CRT response (odds ratio [OR] per 10 μVs increase 1.172 [P < 0.001]) even better than QRS-wave area (OR = 1.116 [P = 0.001]). T-wave area had especially predictive value in the LBBB patient group (OR = 2.77 in LBBB vs. 1.09 in non-LBBB). This predictive value persisted after adjustment of multiple covariates, such as gender, ischemia, age, hypertension, coronary artery bypass graft, and the usage of diuretics and β-blockers. In LBBB patients, the increase in LVEF was 6.1 ± 9.7% and 11.3 ± 9.1% in patients with T-wave area below and above the median value, respectively (P < 0.01). In patients with LBBB morphology of the QRS complex, a larger baseline T-wave area is an important independent predictor of LVEF increase following CRT. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Western Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 135oE-180o (western equatorial...

  10. Porosity prediction of I-field in the Niger delta area using well-log ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    -statistical analysis and seismic attributes to determine porosity values in order to overcome the problem of multiple well drilling. The study area, I-field, is located between latitudes 4.7950oN and 4.8186oN, longitudes 6.9595oE and 6.9800oE.

  11. Use of the Biotic Ligand Model to predict metal toxicity to aquatic biota in areas of differing geology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kathleen S.

    2005-01-01

    This work evaluates the use of the biotic ligand model (BLM), an aquatic toxicity model, to predict toxic effects of metals on aquatic biota in areas underlain by different rock types. The chemical composition of water, soil, and sediment is largely derived from the composition of the underlying rock. Geologic source materials control key attributes of water chemistry that affect metal toxicity to aquatic biota, including: 1) potentially toxic elements, 2) alkalinity, 3) total dissolved solids, and 4) soluble major elements, such as Ca and Mg, which contribute to water hardness. Miller (2002) compiled chemical data for water samples collected in watersheds underlain by ten different rock types, and in a mineralized area in western Colorado. He found that each rock type has a unique range of water chemistry. In this study, the ten rock types were grouped into two general categories, igneous and sedimentary. Water collected in watersheds underlain by sedimentary rock has higher mean pH, alkalinity, and calcium concentrations than water collected in watersheds underlain by igneous rock. Water collected in the mineralized area had elevated concentrations of calcium and sulfate in addition to other chemical constituents. Miller's water-chemistry data were used in the BLM (computer program) to determine copper and zinc toxicity to Daphnia magna. Modeling results show that waters from watersheds underlain by different rock types have characteristic ranges of predicted LC 50 values (a measurement of aquatic toxicity) for copper and zinc, with watersheds underlain by igneous rock having lower predicted LC 50 values than watersheds underlain by sedimentary rock. Lower predicted LC 50 values suggest that aquatic biota in watersheds underlain by igneous rock may be more vulnerable to copper and zinc inputs than aquatic biota in watersheds underlain by sedimentary rock. For both copper and zinc, there is a trend of increasing predicted LC 50 values with increasing dissolved

  12. Heat stress in urban areas: Indoor and outdoor temperatures in different urban structure types and subjectively reported well-being during a heat wave in the city of Leipzig

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Franck

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate projections for Leipzig suggest elevated minimum and maximum temperatures as well as more frequent days with high temperatures. Hence, climate change is threatening human well-being and health. People spend the majority of their time indoors. Therefore, indoor temperatures (especially during the night are of special importance with respect to well-being and health. Indoor air temperature depends on outdoor air temperatures, but is for example modified by type of urban structure, housing area, and may be also influenced by differences in the behavior of the inhabitants. Especially in cities, outdoor air temperatures depend on urban structure e.g. housing density, building arrangement, unpaved areas, types of urban structures, urban green, and other factors. Hence, the questions arise how types of urban structures are related to inner-urban temperature differences and how outdoor air temperatures influence indoor temperatures in dependence on urban housing conditions. This work is a part of a pilot study conducted during the summer 2010 which gathered data from remote sensing, mobile measurements, stationary measurements of air temperatures and relative humidity in areas with different housing structures, and of indoor as well as outdoor temperatures in occupied apartments. Household-survey data reported the subjective perception of heat stress. The study resulted in rather complex relationships between type of housing areas, indoor and outdoor temperatures, morning and evening temperatures, indoor and outdoor temperatures as well as subjective heat perception. Green spaces and types of residential areas are related to air temperatures. More green resulted in lower temperatures. Temperatures have a tendency to increase with increasing story number and are significantly higher in the top floor. An indoor heat island effect corresponding to the outdoor effect could be shown for the homes: Distance to city center is a predicting variable for

  13. Predicting daily ragweed pollen concentrations using Computational Intelligence techniques over two heavily polluted areas in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csépe, Zoltán; Makra, László; Voukantsis, Dimitris; Matyasovszky, István; Tusnády, Gábor; Karatzas, Kostas; Thibaudon, Michel

    2014-04-01

    Forecasting ragweed pollen concentration is a useful tool for sensitive people in order to prepare in time for high pollen episodes. The aim of the study is to use methods of Computational Intelligence (CI) (Multi-Layer Perceptron, M5P, REPTree, DecisionStump and MLPRegressor) for predicting daily values of Ambrosia pollen concentrations and alarm levels for 1-7 days ahead for Szeged (Hungary) and Lyon (France), respectively. Ten-year daily mean ragweed pollen data (within 1997-2006) are considered for both cities. 10 input variables are used in the models including pollen level or alarm level on the given day, furthermore the serial number of the given day of the year within the pollen season and altogether 8 meteorological variables. The study has novelties as (1) daily alarm thresholds are firstly predicted in the aerobiological literature; (2) data-driven modelling methods including neural networks have never been used in forecasting daily Ambrosia pollen concentration; (3) algorithm J48 has never been used in palynological forecasts; (4) we apply a rarely used technique, namely factor analysis with special transformation, to detect the importance of the influencing variables in defining the pollen levels for 1-7 days ahead. When predicting pollen concentrations, for Szeged Multi-Layer Perceptron models deliver similar results with tree-based models 1 and 2 days ahead; while for Lyon only Multi-Layer Perceptron provides acceptable result. When predicting alarm levels, the performance of Multi-Layer Perceptron is the best for both cities. It is presented that the selection of the optimal method depends on climate, as a function of geographical location and relief. The results show that the more complex CI methods perform well, and their performance is case-specific for ≥2 days forecasting horizon. A determination coefficient of 0.98 (Ambrosia, Szeged, one day and two days ahead) using Multi-Layer Perceptron ranks this model the best one in the literature

  14. Artificial neural network for prediction of the area under the disease progress curve of tomato late blight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Pedrosa Alves

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Artificial neural networks (ANN are computational models inspired by the neural systems of living beings capable of learning from examples and using them to solve problems such as non-linear prediction, and pattern recognition, in addition to several other applications. In this study, ANN were used to predict the value of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC for the tomato late blight pathosystem. The AUDPC is widely used by epidemiologic studies of polycyclic diseases, especially those regarding quantitative resistance of genotypes. However, a series of six evaluations over time is necessary to obtain the final area value for this pathosystem. This study aimed to investigate the utilization of ANN to construct an AUDPC in the tomato late blight pathosystem, using a reduced number of severity evaluations. For this, four independent experiments were performed giving a total of 1836 plants infected with Phytophthora infestans pathogen. They were assessed every three days, comprised six opportunities and AUDPC calculations were performed by the conventional method. After the ANN were created it was possible to predict the AUDPC with correlations of 0.97 and 0.84 when compared to conventional methods, using 50 % and 67 % of the genotype evaluations, respectively. When using the ANN created in an experiment to predict the AUDPC of the other experiments the average correlation was 0.94, with two evaluations, 0.96, with three evaluations, between the predicted values of the ANN and they were observed in six evaluations. We present in this study a new paradigm for the use of AUDPC information in tomato experiments faced with P. infestans. This new proposed paradigm might be adapted to different pathosystems.

  15. Predictive Models of Duration of Ground Delay Programs in New York Area Airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Deepak

    2011-01-01

    Initially planned GDP duration often turns out to be an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual GDP duration. This, in turn, results in avoidable airborne or ground delays in the system. Therefore, better models of actual duration have the potential of reducing delays in the system. The overall objective of this study is to develop such models based on logs of GDPs. In a previous report, we described descriptive models of Ground Delay Programs. These models were defined in terms of initial planned duration and in terms of categorical variables. These descriptive models are good at characterizing the historical errors in planned GDP durations. This paper focuses on developing predictive models of GDP duration. Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) are logged by Air Traffic Control facilities with The National Traffic Management Log (NTML) which is a single system for automated recoding, coordination, and distribution of relevant information about TMIs throughout the National Airspace System. (Brickman, 2004 Yuditsky, 2007) We use 2008-2009 GDP data from the NTML database for the study reported in this paper. NTML information about a GDP includes the initial specification, possibly one or more revisions, and the cancellation. In the next section, we describe general characteristics of Ground Delay Programs. In the third section, we develop models of actual duration. In the fourth section, we compare predictive performance of these models. The final section is a conclusion.

  16. Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models at Los Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shield, Stephen Allan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dai, Zhenxue [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-08-18

    Meteorological inputs are an important part of subsurface flow and transport modeling. The choice of source for meteorological data used as inputs has significant impacts on the results of subsurface flow and transport studies. One method to obtain the meteorological data required for flow and transport studies is the use of weather generating models. This paper compares the difference in performance of two weather generating models at Technical Area 54 of Los Alamos National Lab. Technical Area 54 is contains several waste pits for low-level radioactive waste and is the site for subsurface flow and transport studies. This makes the comparison of the performance of the two weather generators at this site particularly valuable.

  17. Farmed areas predict the distribution of amphibian ponds in a traditional rural landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartel, Tibor; von Wehrden, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Traditional rural landscapes of Eastern Europe are undergoing major changes due to agricultural intensification, land abandonment, change in agricultural practices and infrastructural development. Small man-made ponds are important yet vulnerable components of rural landscapes. Despite their important role for biodiversity, these ponds tend to be excluded from conservation strategies. Our study was conducted in a traditional rural landscape in Eastern Europe. The aim of this study is twofold: (i) to model the distribution of four major man-made pond types and (ii) to present the importance of man-made ponds for the endangered Yellow Bellied Toad (Bombina variegata) and the Common Toad (Bufo bufo). Six environmental variables were used to model pond distribution: Corine landcover, the heterogeneity of the landcover, slope, road distance, distance to closest village and the human population density. Land cover heterogeneity was the most important driver for the distribution of fishponds. Areas used for agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation were the most important predictors for the distribution of temporary ponds. In addition, areas covered by transitional woodland and scrub were important for the open cattle ponds. Bombina variegata was found predominantly in the temporary ponds (e.g. ponds created by cattle and buffalo, dirt road ponds and concrete ponds created for livestock drinking) and Bufo bufo in fishponds. Our Maxent models revealed that the highest probability of occurrence for amphibian ponds was in areas used as farmland. The traditional farming practices combined with a low level of infrastructure development produces a large number of amphibian ponds. The challenge is to harmonize economic development and the maintenance of high densities of ponds in these traditional rural landscapes.

  18. Farmed areas predict the distribution of amphibian ponds in a traditional rural landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tibor Hartel

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Traditional rural landscapes of Eastern Europe are undergoing major changes due to agricultural intensification, land abandonment, change in agricultural practices and infrastructural development. Small man-made ponds are important yet vulnerable components of rural landscapes. Despite their important role for biodiversity, these ponds tend to be excluded from conservation strategies. METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS: Our study was conducted in a traditional rural landscape in Eastern Europe. The aim of this study is twofold: (i to model the distribution of four major man-made pond types and (ii to present the importance of man-made ponds for the endangered Yellow Bellied Toad (Bombina variegata and the Common Toad (Bufo bufo. Six environmental variables were used to model pond distribution: Corine landcover, the heterogeneity of the landcover, slope, road distance, distance to closest village and the human population density. Land cover heterogeneity was the most important driver for the distribution of fishponds. Areas used for agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation were the most important predictors for the distribution of temporary ponds. In addition, areas covered by transitional woodland and scrub were important for the open cattle ponds. Bombina variegata was found predominantly in the temporary ponds (e.g. ponds created by cattle and buffalo, dirt road ponds and concrete ponds created for livestock drinking and Bufo bufo in fishponds. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our Maxent models revealed that the highest probability of occurrence for amphibian ponds was in areas used as farmland. The traditional farming practices combined with a low level of infrastructure development produces a large number of amphibian ponds. The challenge is to harmonize economic development and the maintenance of high densities of ponds in these traditional rural landscapes.

  19. Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

    2008-01-01

    Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of

  20. Changes in total energy intake and macronutrient composition after bariatric surgery predict long-term weight outcome: findings from the Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanerva, Noora; Larsson, Ingrid; Peltonen, Markku; Lindroos, Anna-Karin; Carlsson, Lena M

    2017-07-01

    Background: Approximately 20-30% of obese patients do not achieve successful weight outcomes after bariatric surgery.Objective: We examined whether short-term changes (≤0.5 y postsurgery) in energy intake and macronutrient composition after bariatric surgery could predict 10-y weight change.Design: Participants were recruited from the Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) study, which was a matched (nonrandomized) prospective trial that compared bariatric surgery with usual care for obese patients. A total of 2010 patients who underwent bariatric surgery were included in the study. Physical examinations (e.g., weight) and questionnaires (e.g., dietary questionnaire) were completed before and 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, and 10 y after surgery. For the main analytic strategy, a linear mixed model was implemented, which included repeated measures with a random intercept and an unstructured covariance matrix.Results: Short-term changes in energy intake (P bariatric surgery. At the 10-y follow-up, men and women with the largest reductions in energy intake had lost 7.3% and 3.9% more weight, respectively, compared with that of subjects with the smallest intake reductions (P bariatric surgery predicts long-term weight loss. Weight loss is also associated with a changing dietary macronutrient composition. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01479452. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

  1. Predicting Cognitive, Functional, and Diagnostic Change over 4 Years Using Baseline Subjective Cognitive Complaints in the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slavin, Melissa J; Sachdev, Perminder S; Kochan, Nicole A; Woolf, Claudia; Crawford, John D; Giskes, Katrina; Reppermund, Simone; Trollor, Julian N; Draper, Brian; Delbaere, Kim; Brodaty, Henry

    2015-09-01

    There is limited understanding of the usefulness of subjective cognitive complaint(s) (SCC) in predicting longitudinal outcome because most studies focus solely on memory (as opposed to nonmemory cognitive) complaints, do not collect data from both participants and informants, do not control for relevant covariates, and have limited outcome measures. Therefore the authors investigate the usefulness of participant and informant SCCs in predicting change in cognition, functional abilities, and diagnostic classification of mild cognitive impairment or dementia in a community-dwelling sample over 4 years. Nondemented participants (N = 620) in the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study aged between 70 and 90 years completed 15 memory and 9 nonmemory SCC questions. An informant completed a baseline questionnaire that included 15 memory and 4 nonmemory SCC questions relating to the participant. Neuropsychological, functional, and diagnostic assessments were carried out at baseline and again at 4-year follow-up. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were carried out to determine the association between SCC indices and neuropsychological, functional, and diagnostic data while controlling for psychological measures. Once participant characteristics were controlled for, participant complaints were generally not predictive of cognitive or functional decline, although participant memory-specific complaints were predictive of diagnostic conversion. Informant-related memory questions were associated with global cognitive and functional decline and with diagnostic conversion over 4 years. Informant memory complaint questions were better than participant complaints in predicting cognitive and functional decline as well as diagnoses over 4 years. Copyright © 2015 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Evaluation of an ensemble precipitation prediction system over the Western Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, M. L.; Santos-Muñoz, D.; Valero, F.; Morata, A.

    2010-10-01

    A short-range ensemble precipitation forecast system has been constructed to be applied to over the Mediterranean area down to a 25-km grid spacing using ten members from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Model (MM5). The ensemble system consists of ten members, each run with a different combination of two different initial conditions from global models and five different subgrid-scale physics configurations for a 2-weeks period of October 2006. The mesoscale verification is made by using observational precipitation data of Spanish Climatic Network. In terms of the total daily precipitation, spatially averaged over the region, time evolution of bias and root mean square error have shown larger departures in the first and final part of the selected period, maintaining quasi-zero values in the middle of the period. Although the created short-range ensemble shows high-spread-skill correlation values for daily precipitation, the asymmetric shape of the rank histogram shows some underdispersion, suggesting a bias behaviour. Confidence intervals have been built to show observational errors, showing more errors in the bins that suggest bias and underdispersive behaviour of the EPS and less errors in the first bins. Additionally, mean spatial forecast rainfall distributions have shown similar patterns to the observed mean precipitation ones, matching the largest accumulated rainfall values and settling down over the same areas. Relative Operative Characteristics diagrams, showing very outstanding areas, and the attribute diagram are indicative of usefulness of the forecasting system, depicting in general a good agreement between forecast probability and the mean observed frequency. Epsgrams of the spatially averaged total daily precipitation for each ensemble member and for the ensemble system illustrate, in general, good agreement among the different members, showing the spread of the ensemble system with

  3. Broca's region and Visual Word Form Area activation differ during a predictive Stroop task

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wallentin, Mikkel; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg; Skakkebæk, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Competing theories attempt to explain the function of Broca's area in single word processing. Studies have found the region to be more active during processing of pseudo words than real words and during infrequent words relative to frequent words and during Stroop (incongruent) color words compared...... displayed in green or red (incongruent vs congruent colors). One of the colors, however, was presented three times as often as the other, making it possible to study both congruency and frequency effects independently. Auditory stimuli saying “GREEN” or “RED” had the same distribution, making it possible...

  4. Computational prediction of the effective temperature in the lying area of pig pens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerg, Bjarne; Rong, Li; Zhang, Guoqiang

    2017-01-01

    Using solid floor instead of drained or slatted floor in the lying areas of pig pens has distinct advantages in relation to animal welfare, odour abatement and ammonia emission, energy consumption and reduced building costs. However, pig producers often opt out of providing a solid floor due......, individually contribute to the combined effect of the thermal condition raising pigs are exposed to. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted to estimate the relevant parameters and, finally, the ET. Furthermore, the developed ET equation was implemented in the CFD model as a Custom Field...

  5. Iodine distribution in natural waters of different chemical composition in relation to water-bearing soils and rocks and water fractions in areas subjected to radioiodine contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolmykova, Liudmila; Korobova, Elena

    2017-04-01

    Iodine is an essential microelement required for normal functioning of thyroid gland. Natural deficiency of stable iodine is compensated by its active intake by thyroid and provokes its higher irradiation in case of radiation accidents and contamination of the environment by radioiodine isotopes. The bioavailability of both stable and radioactive iodine and the specificity of its uptake by living organisms largely depends on geochemical parameters of the environment related to natural conditions of water migration. The goal of the study was to investigate spatial distribution of iodine in natural water of different chemical composition in relation to typical water-bearing soils and rocks and water fractions in Bryansk areas subjected to radioiodine contamination after the Chernobyl accident and to evaluate contribution of this factor to the occurrence of endemic thyroid diseases among local population inhabiting geochemically different areas of fluvioglacial and loess-like sedimentary rocks. The highest content of iodine (Me=13.3 µg/l) was observed in surface water of landscapes with H-Ca, Ca and H-Ca-Fe classes of water migration. The lowest microelement level (Me=5.25 µg/l) was noted in groundwater of landscapes with H, H-Fe classes of water migration in areas of Paleogene water bearing rocks. Regardless of the type of source and class of water migration up to 90% of the total content of iodide is present in the fraction membrane filtration). Up to 50% of iodine pass to solution containing particles water in areas of loess-like sedimentary rocks hosts the highest levels of iodine where its associated with calcium mineral aquatic complexes and the suspended particles. The obtained data is believed to be useful in explanation of mobility and intake of iodine and its radioactive analogues by rural population living in different geochemical conditions and using local drinking waters. The data should be accounted of in planning prophylactics of endemic diseases and

  6. Educational role of art history as a school subject area in programmes of formal education in Slovenia: the aspect of vzgoja, according to general European guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjana Dolšina

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Programmes of formal education establish a systematic transfer of knowledge as well as universal values from one generation to another. By that, they ensure the survival of social structures, prevent radical disruptions in their continuity, and serve as basis for general development of a society. Their content and didactic arrangements include interweaving of two basic aspects: the cognitive one and the one related to vzgoja (i.e. upbringing, moral/value education etc.. The latter aims to achieve the ideals of a tolerant, just and lifelong learning society, but seems to be facing increasing challenges, mainly emerging from neoliberal capitalist mentality. Art history as a school subject area in elementary and secondary education may provide an insight beneath the surface of historical events. Thus, it helps develop a critical view towards them and consequently towards the present real-life situations, which contributes to ascending the taxonomic scale of conative educational goals.

  7. Predicting the spatial distribution of a seabird community to identify priority conservation areas in the Timor Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavers, Jennifer L; Miller, Mark G R; Carter, Michael J; Swann, George; Clarke, Rohan H

    2014-12-01

    Understanding spatial and temporal variability in the distribution of species is fundamental to the conservation of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. To support strategic decision making aimed at sustainable management of the oceans, such as the establishment of protected areas for marine wildlife, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies seabird aggregations in the Timor Sea. We developed species distribution models for 21 seabird species based on at-sea survey observations from 2000-2013 and oceanographic variables (e.g., bathymetry). We applied 4 statistical modeling techniques and combined the results into an ensemble model with robust performance. The ensemble model predicted the probability of seabird occurrence in areas where few or no surveys had been conducted and demonstrated 3 areas of high seabird richness that varied little between seasons. These were located within 150 km of Adele Island, Ashmore Reef, and the Lacepede Islands, 3 of the largest aggregations of breeding seabirds in Australia. Although these breeding islands were foci for high species richness, model performance was greatest for 3 nonbreeding migratory species that would have been overlooked had regional monitoring been restricted to islands. Our results indicate many seabird hotspots in the Timor Sea occur outside existing reserves (e.g., Ashmore Reef Marine Reserve), where shipping, fisheries, and offshore development likely pose a threat to resident and migratory populations. Our results highlight the need to expand marine spatial planning efforts to ensure biodiversity assets are appropriately represented in marine reserves. Correspondingly, our results support the designation of at least 4 new important bird areas, for example, surrounding Adele Island and Ashmore Reef. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. Prediction of areas around the Mediterranean at risk of bluetongue by modelling the distribution of its vector using satellite imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baylis, M; Mellor, P S; Wittmann, E J; Rogers, D J

    2001-11-24

    Bluetongue is an infectious disease of ruminants caused by a virus transmitted by biting midges, one species of which, Culicoides imicola, is the major vector in the Old World. Following an epizootic of African horse sickness,a related disease, in Iberia and Morocco between 1987 and 1991, C imicola was trapped for two years at 44 sites in the affected region and models were developed for predicting the abundance of C imicola at these sites. Discriminant analysis was applied to identify the best model of three levels of abundance from 40 Fourier-processed remotely sensed variables and a digital elevation model. The best model correctly predicted the abundance level at 41 of the 44 sites. The single most important variable was the phase of the annual cycle of the normalised difference vegetation index. The model was used to predict the abundances of C imicola elsewhere around the Mediterranean and predicted high levels of abundance in many areas recently affected by bluetongue, including the Balearics, Sardinia, Sicily, eastern Greece, western Turkey, Tunisia and northern Algeria. The model suggests that eastern Spain, the island of Ibiza, the provinces of Lazio and Puglia in Italy, the Peloponnese and parts of northern Algeria and Libya may be at risk of bluetongue in 2001.

  9. Small improvement in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve indicated small changes in predicted risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Forike K; Tonk, Elisa C M; Kers, Jannigje G; Janssens, A Cecile J W

    2016-11-01

    Adding risk factors to a prediction model often increases the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) only slightly, particularly when the AUC of the model was already high. We investigated whether a risk factor that minimally improves the AUC may nevertheless improve the predictive ability of the model, assessed by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). We simulated data sets with risk factors and event status for 100,000 hypothetical individuals and created prediction models with AUCs between 0.50 and 0.95. We added a single risk factor for which the effect was modeled as a certain odds ratio (OR 2, 4, 8) or AUC increment (ΔAUC 0.01, 0.02, 0.03). Across all AUC values of the baseline model, for a risk factor with the same OR, both ΔAUC and IDI were lower when the AUC of the baseline model was higher. When the increment in AUC was small (ΔAUC 0.01), the IDI was also small, except when the AUC of the baseline model was >0.90. When the addition of a risk factor shows minimal improvement in AUC, predicted risks generally show minimal changes too. Updating risk models with strong risk factors may be informative for a subgroup of individuals, but not at the population level. The AUC may not be as insensitive as is frequently argued. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Predicted Infiltration for Sodic/Saline Soils from Reclaimed Coastal Areas: Sensitivity to Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    She, Dongli; Yu, Shuang'en; Shao, Guangcheng

    2014-01-01

    This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline) and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline) were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm3. A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ 0 was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils. PMID:25197699

  11. Predicted Infiltration for Sodic/Saline Soils from Reclaimed Coastal Areas: Sensitivity to Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongdong Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm3. A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ0 was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils.

  12. Predicted infiltration for sodic/saline soils from reclaimed coastal areas: sensitivity to model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dongdong; She, Dongli; Yu, Shuang'en; Shao, Guangcheng; Chen, Dan

    2014-01-01

    This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline) and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline) were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm(3). A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ₀ was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils.

  13. [Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Oun-ou; Deng, Xiang-zheng; Ke, Xin-li; Zhao, Chun-hong; Zhang, Wei

    2014-12-01

    The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

  14. The Role of Single-Subject Brain Metabolic Patterns in the Early Differential Diagnosis of Primary Progressive Aphasias and in Prediction of Progression to Dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerami, Chiara; Dodich, Alessandra; Greco, Lucia; Iannaccone, Sandro; Magnani, Giuseppe; Marcone, Alessandra; Pelagallo, Elisabetta; Santangelo, Roberto; Cappa, Stefano F; Perani, Daniela

    2017-01-01

    Primary progressive aphasia (PPA) is a clinical syndrome due to different neurodegenerative conditions in which an accurate early diagnosis needs to be supported by a reliable diagnostic tool at the individual level. In this study, we investigated in PPA the FDG-PET brain metabolic patterns at the single-subject level, in order to assess the case-to-case variability and its relationship with clinical-neuropsychological findings. 55 patients (i.e., 11 semantic variant/sv-PPA, 19 non fluent variant/nfv-PPA, 17 logopenic variant/lv-PPA, 3 slowly progressive anarthria/SPA, and 5 mixed PPA/m-PPA) were included. Clinical-neuropsychological information and FDG-PET data were acquired at baseline. A follow-up of 27.4±12.55 months evaluated the clinical progression. Brain metabolism was analyzed using an optimized and validated voxel-based SPM method at the single-subject level. FDG-PET voxel-wise metabolic assessment revealed specific metabolic signatures characterizing each PPA variant at the individual level, reflecting the underlying neurodegeneration in language networks. Notably, additional dysfunctional patterns predicted clinical progression to specific dementia conditions. In the case of nfv-PPA, a metabolic pattern characterized by involvement of parietal, subcortical and brainstem structures predicted progression to a corticobasal degeneration syndrome or to progressive supranuclear palsy. lv-PPA and sv-PPA cases who progressed to Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal dementia at the follow-up presented with extended bilateral patterns at baseline. Our results indicate that FDG-PET voxel-wise imaging is a valid biomarker for the early differential diagnosis of PPAs and for the prediction of progression to specific dementia condition. This study supports the use of FDG-PET imaging quantitative assessment in clinical settings for a better characterization of PPA individuals and prognostic definition of possible endo-phenotypes.

  15. The additional benefit of weighted subjective global assessment (SGA) for the predictability of mortality in incident peritoneal dialysis patients: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Taeyoung; Ko, Ye Eun; Kim, Seung-Jung; Kang, Duk-Hee; Choi, Kyu Bok; Oh, Hyung Jung; Ryu, Dong-Ryeol

    2017-11-01

    Although subjective global assessment (SGA) is a widely used tool for nutritional investigation, the scores are dependent on the inspectors' subjective opinions, and there are only few studies that directly assessed the usefulness of SGA and modified SGA in incident peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. A total of 365 incident PD patients between 2009 and 2015 were enrolled and measured with SGA and calculated using serum albumin and total iron binding capacity (TIBC) levels for weighted SGA. Cox analyses were performed to delineate the association between SGA or weighted SGA and all-cause mortality, and a receiver-operating characteristic was conducted to reveal the additional benefit of weighted SGA on predicting adverse clinical outcomes. The Kaplan-Meier curve showed that the cumulative survival rate in patients with "Good nutrition" (G1) was significantly higher compared to those with "Mild to severe malnutrition" (G2). G2 was significantly associated with an increase in the mortality even after adjusting for several covariates compared with G1. Moreover, a 1-unit increase in weighted SGA was also significantly correlated with mortality after adjustment of the same covariates, while G2 was not significantly associated with an increase in the mortality among young-aged (under 65 years) groups. Meanwhile, a 1-unit increase in weighted SGA was significantly related to an increase in mortality in all the subgroup analyses. Furthermore, the AUCs of weighted SGAs in all groups were significantly increased compared with those of SGA alone. In conclusions, the evaluation of nutritional status based on SGA in incident PD patients might be useful for predicting mortality. However, weighted SGA with serum albumin and TIBC can provide additional predictive power for mortality compared with SGA alone in incident PD patients.

  16. Multivariable predictive control considering time delay for load-frequency control in multi-area power systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniar Sabah

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multivariable model based predictive control (MPC is proposed for the solution of load frequency control (LFC in a multi-area interconnected power system. The proposed controller is designed to consider time delay, generation rate constraint and multivariable nature of the LFC system, simultaneously. A new formulation of the MPC is presented to compensate time delay. The generation rate constraint is considered by employing a constrained MPC and economic allocation of the generation is further guaranteed by an innovative modification in the predictive control objective function. The effectiveness of proposed scheme is verified through time-based simulations on the standard 39-bus test system and the responses are then compared with the proportional-integral controller. The evaluation of the results reveals that the proposed control scheme offers satisfactory performance with fast responses.

  17. A novel area of predictive modelling: describing the functionality of beneficial microorganisms in foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroy, Frédéric; Degeest, Bart; De, Vuyst Luc

    2002-03-01

    Predictive microbiology generally focuses on the potential outgrowth of spoilage bacteria and foodborne pathogens in foods. Little attention has been paid to the biokinetics of beneficial foodgrade microorganisms, such as lactic acid bacteria. The latter is commonly used in the food fermentation industry, mainly for the in situ production of the antimicrobial lactic acid to extend the shelf life of the food. Furthermore, many strains show additional industrial potential as novel starter cultures since they produce functional metabolites, such as bacteriocins and exopolysaccharides. The production of these functional metabolites has been demonstrated during in vitro experiments, but in many cases these novel starter cultures seem to be less efficient when applied in a food system. A modelling approach may contribute to a better understanding of the tight relation between the food environment and bacterial functionality. Primary modelling can be applied to fit the experimental data concerning cell growth, sugar metabolism, and the production of functional metabolites for a given set of environmental conditions. This led to conclusions concerning the growth-associated production of bacteriocin and exopolysaccharides, the inactivation of these molecules when cell growth levels off, and a minimum cell concentration to trigger on bacteriocin production. Examples deal with the production of the bacteriocin sakacin K by the natural fermented sausage isolate Lactobacillus sakei CTC 494, and the production of heteropolysaccharides by the yoghurt starter culture Streptococcus thermophilus LY03. Secondary modelling of biokinetic parameters quantifies the production of bacteriocin and exopolysaccharides in function of environmental factors. As an example, the specific bacteriocin production by Lb. sakei CTC 494 decreases with increasing sodium chloride concentrations. Furthermore, since the assessment of functionality is frequently hampered by the nature of the food system

  18. Preoperative correlation of intraoperative cortical mapping with magnetic resonance imaging landmarks to predict localization of the Broca area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiñones-Hinojosa, Alfredo; Ojemann, Steven G; Sanai, Nader; Dillon, William P; Berger, Mitchel S

    2003-08-01

    Broca identified the posterior third of the inferior frontal gyrus as a locus essential for the production of fluent speech. The authors have conducted this retrospective analysis in an attempt to find readily identifiable landmarks on magnetic resonance (MR) imaging that correspond to intraoperative cortical stimulation-induced speech arrest. These landmarks demonstrate novel structural-functional relationships that can be used preoperatively to predict the location of the Broca area. Using a neuronavigation system, sites where stimulation produced speech arrest (Broca area) were recorded in a consecutive series of patients undergoing awake tumor resections in the perisylvian territory of the dominant hemisphere. The authors reviewed 33 consecutive patients by projecting the MR imaging data sets and marking the site where the Broca area was identified. Sulcus topography was analyzed with respect to this site by scrolling into neighboring planes and classifying the frontal operculum into one of the four schemes of sulcus variability described by Ebeling, et al. The following categories of frontal opercula were found: 18 (69%) of 26 were Type I, eight (31%) of 26 were Type III, and seven cases eluded classification because of sulcal effacement. For patients with Type I anatomy, the Broca area was adjacent to, and distributed evenly around, the inferior precentral sulcus (IPS). Quantitatively, the site of speech arrest was located a mean of 2.4 +/- 0.25 cm from the anteroinferior aspect of the pars opercularis, where it abuts the subarachnoid space surrounding the apex of the pars triangularis. For all patients with Type III anatomy, the Broca area was adjacent to the accessory sulcus that lies immediately posterior to the IPS. In these patients the mean distance from the anterior inferior pars opercularis was 2.3 +/- 0.29 cm. The mean distance from the Broca area to the edge of the tumor for the 26 patients with clear sulcal anatomy was 1.29 +/- 0.12 cm. The results

  19. Complementarity of Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) for predicting poor clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raslan, Mariana; Gonzalez, Maria Cristina; Torrinhas, Raquel Suzana M M; Ravacci, Graziela Rosa; Pereira, Julio C R; Waitzberg, Dan L

    2011-02-01

    We evaluated the ability of Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) to predict malnutrition related to poor clinical outcomes. We assessed 705 patients at a public university hospital within 48 h of admission. Logistic regression and number needed to screen (NNS) were calculated to test the complementarity between the tools and their ability to predict very long length of hospital stay (VLLOS), complications, and death. Of the patients screened, 27.9% were at nutritional risk (NRS+) and 38.9% were malnourished (SGA B or C). Compared to those patients not at nutritional risk, NRS+, SGA B or C patients were at increased risk for complications (p=0.03, 0.02, and 0.003, respectively). NRS+ patients had an increased risk of death (p=0.03), and SGA B and C patients had an increased likelihood of VLLOS (p=0.008 and pSGA C had lower estimates of NNS than patients who were NRS+ or SGA C only, though their confidence intervals did overlap. The concurrent application of SGA in NRS+ patients might enhance the ability to predict poor clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients in Brazil. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  20. Effective Connectivity from Early Visual Cortex to Posterior Occipitotemporal Face Areas Supports Face Selectivity and Predicts Developmental Prosopagnosia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohse, Michael; Garrido, Lucia; Driver, Jon; Dolan, Raymond J; Duchaine, Bradley C; Furl, Nicholas

    2016-03-30

    selectivity. Furthermore, people with developmental prosopagnosia, a lifelong face recognition impairment, have reduced face selectivity in the posterior occipitotemporal face areas and left anterior temporal lobe. We show that this reduced face selectivity can be predicted by effective connectivity from early visual cortex to posterior occipitotemporal face areas. This study presents the first network-based account of how face selectivity arises in the human brain. Copyright © 2016 Lohse et al.

  1. Using multifractal modeling as a standard tool in geochemical exploration for predicting mineralized areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, Mario A.

    2015-04-01

    It has been 20 years since the pioneering work of Cheng et al (1994) first proposed a quantitative relationship for the areas enclosing concentration values of an element above given thresholds and their distribution in the field, known as concentration-area (CA) method, which is based in multifractal theory. The method allows the definition of geochemical anomalies in wide set of geological backgrounds but it took nearly 15 years before it became a widely used methodology for mineral exploration. The method was also extended to 1D and 3D data sets. It is worth noting the variety of methods that spanned from the theory of fractals. Building on previous models, including multiplicative cascades and size-grade relationships, increasing evidence points to the powerful tools of fractal theory to describe and model ore deposit distribution and formation. However, while much of these approaches become complex and not easy to use, the CA method is remarkable for its utter simplicity and disarming results obtained when confronted with the geological reality in the field. This is most valued by companies and professionals undertaking geochemical exploration surveys for the characterization or refining of potential ore targets or known mineralized areas. Several approaches have combined the CA method with geostatistic modeling and simulation and other established statistical techniques in order to enhance anomalous threshold identification. Examples are not restricted to geochemical exploration alone, other applications being studies on environmental change. Some of these examples will be addressed as they have been applied to different regions in the world, but particular emphasis will be put on geochemical exploration surveys in different geotectonic units of the Variscan basement in the Iberian Peninsula. These include quartz-vein gold mineralization in Northern Portugal and several surveys for base metals over two wide areas, which served to re-evaluate much of the

  2. Transient stability enhancement of modern power grid using predictive Wide-Area Monitoring and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefian, Reza

    This dissertation presents a real-time Wide-Area Control (WAC) designed based on artificial intelligence for large scale modern power systems transient stability enhancement. The WAC using the measurements available from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) at generator buses, monitors the global oscillations in the system and optimally augments the local excitation system of the synchronous generators. The complexity of the power system stability problem along with uncertainties and nonlinearities makes the conventional modeling non-practical or inaccurate. In this work Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm on the benchmark of Neural Networks (NNs) is used to map the nonlinearities of the system in real-time. This method different from both the centralized and the decentralized control schemes, employs a number of semi-autonomous agents to collaborate with each other to perform optimal control theory well-suited for WAC applications. Also, to handle the delays in Wide-Area Monitoring (WAM) and adapt the RL toward the robust control design, Temporal Difference (TD) is proposed as a solver for RL problem or optimal cost function. However, the main drawback of such WAC design is that it is challenging to determine if an offline trained network is valid to assess the stability of the power system once the system is evolved to a different operating state or network topology. In order to address the generality issue of NNs, a value priority scheme is proposed in this work to design a hybrid linear and nonlinear controllers. The algorithm so-called supervised RL is based on mixture of experts, where it is initialized by linear controller and as the performance and identification of the RL controller improves in real-time switches to the other controller. This work also focuses on transient stability and develops Lyapunov energy functions for synchronous generators to monitor the stability stress of the system. Using such energies as a cost function guarantees the convergence

  3. Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Megan D.; Craigie, Ian D.; Harrison, Luke B.; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations.

  4. Global Gradients in Vertebrate Diversity Predicted by Historical Area-Productivity Dynamics and Contemporary Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetz, Walter; Fine, Paul V. A.

    2012-01-01

    Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or “evolutionary arenas,” characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients. PMID:22479151

  5. [Subjective Workload, Job Satisfaction, and Work-Life-Balance of Physicians and Nurses in a Municipal Hospital in a Rural Area Compared to an Urban University Hospital].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Körber, Michael; Schmid, Klaus; Drexler, Hans; Kiesel, Johannes

    2017-02-15

    Medical and nursing shortages in rural areas represent a current serious public health problem. The healthcare of the rural population is at risk. This study compares perceived workload, job satisfaction and work-life balance of physicians and nurses at a clinic in a rural area with two clinics of a University hospital. Physicians and nurses were interviewed anonymously with a standardized questionnaire (paper and pencil), including questions on job satisfaction, subjective workload and work-life balance. The response rate was almost 50% in the University hospital as well as in the municipal hospital. 32 physicians and 54 nurses from the University hospital and 18 physicians and 137 nurses from the municipal hospital participated in the survey. Nurses at the University hospital assessed the organization of the daily routine with 94.1% as better than those at the municipal hospital (82.4%, p=0.03). Physicians at the University hospital were able to better implement acquired knowledge at a University clinic with 87.5% than their counterparts at the municipal hospital (55.5%, p=0.02). In contrast to their colleagues at the municipal hospital, only 50% of the physicians at the University hospital subjectively considered their workload as just right (83.3% municipal, p=0.02). 96.9% of the physicians at the University hospital were "daily" or "several times a week" under time pressure (municipal 50%, pwork and family life (62.9% University hospital, 72.8% Municipal hospital). In contrast, only 20% of the physicians at the University Hospital but 42.9% of the physicians of the municipal hospital had sufficient opportunities to balance workload and family (p=0.13). The return rate of almost 50% can be described as good. Due to the small number of physicians, especially from the municipal hospital, it can be assumed that some interesting differences could not be detected. There were only slight differences between the nurses from the two hospitals. In contrast, subjective

  6. Predicting symptom clusters of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in Croatian war veterans: the role of socio-demographics, war experiences and subjective quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lončar, Mladen; Plašć, Ivana Dijanić; Bunjevac, Tomislav; Hrabač, Pero; Jakšić, Nenad; Kozina, Slavica; Henigsberg, Neven; Sagud, Marina; Marčinko, Darko

    2014-09-01

    Previous research has documented multiple chains of risk in the development of PTSD among war veterans. However, existing studies were mostly carried out in the West, while they also did not analyze specific symptom clusters of PTSD. The aim of this study was to examine the role of socio-demographic characteristics, war experiences and subjective quality of life in the prediction of three clusters of PTSD symptoms (i.e., avoidance, intrusion, hyperarousal). This study comprised 184 male participants who have survived war imprisonment during the Croatian Homeland War in the period from 1991 to 1995. The data was collected through several self-report measuring instruments: questionnaire on socio-demographic data, war experiences (Questionnaire on Traumatic Combat and War Experiences), subjective quality of life (WHO-Five Well-being Index), and PTSD symptoms (Impact of Events Scale - Revised). The level of three symptom clusters of PTSD was found to be moderate to high, as indicated by the scores on the IES-R. Results of the three hierarchical regression analyses showed the following: traumatic war experiences were significant predictors of avoidance symptoms; traumatic war experiences and subjective quality of life were significant predictors of hyperarousal symptoms; and traumatic war experiences, material status and subjective quality of life were significant predictors of intrusion symptoms. These findings support the widespread belief that the development of war-related PTSD is accounted for by multiple chains of risk, while traumatic war experiences seem to be the only predictor of all three symptom clusters. Future research should put more emphasis on specific PTSD symptom clusters when investigating the etiopathogenesis of this disorder among war-affected populations.

  7. Poor Positive Predictive Value of Lyme Disease Serologic Testing in an Area of Low Disease Incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantos, Paul M; Branda, John A; Boggan, Joel C; Chudgar, Saumil M; Wilson, Elizabeth A; Ruffin, Felicia; Fowler, Vance; Auwaerter, Paul G; Nigrovic, Lise E

    2015-11-01

    Lyme disease is diagnosed by 2-tiered serologic testing in patients with a compatible clinical illness, but the significance of positive test results in low-prevalence regions has not been investigated. We reviewed the medical records of patients who tested positive for Lyme disease with standardized 2-tiered serologic testing between 2005 and 2010 at a single hospital system in a region with little endemic Lyme disease. Based on clinical findings, we calculated the positive predictive value of Lyme disease serology. Next, we reviewed the outcome of serologic testing in patients with select clinical syndromes compatible with disseminated Lyme disease (arthritis, cranial neuropathy, or meningitis). During the 6-year study period 4723 patients were tested for Lyme disease, but only 76 (1.6%) had positive results by established laboratory criteria. Among 70 seropositive patients whose medical records were available for review, 12 (17%; 95% confidence interval, 9%-28%) were found to have Lyme disease (6 with documented travel to endemic regions). During the same time period, 297 patients with a clinical illness compatible with disseminated Lyme disease underwent 2-tiered serologic testing. Six of them (2%; 95% confidence interval, 0.7%-4.3%) were seropositive, 3 with documented travel and 1 who had an alternative diagnosis that explained the clinical findings. In this low-prevalence cohort, fewer than 20% of positive Lyme disease tests are obtained from patients with clinically likely Lyme disease. Positive Lyme disease test results may have little diagnostic value in this setting. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. A novel habitat-based approach to predict impacts of marine protected areas on fishers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, João B; Moura, Rodrigo L; Mills, Morena; Klein, Carissa; Brown, Christopher J; Adams, Vanessa M; Grantham, Hedley; Watts, Matthew; Faria, Deborah; Amado-Filho, Gilberto M; Bastos, Alex C; Lourival, Reinaldo; Possingham, Hugh P

    2017-06-24

    While marine protected areas (MPAs) can simultaneously contribute to biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, the global network is biased towards particular ecosystem types, as it was largely established in an ad hoc fashion. The optimization of trade-offs between biodiversity benefits and socio-economic values increases implementation success and minimizes enforcement costs in the long run, but is often neglected in marine spatial planning (MSP). Although the acquisition of spatially explicit socioeconomic data is often perceived as a costly/secondary step in MSP, it is critical to account for lost opportunities by people whose activities will be restricted, especially fishers. Here we present an easily-reproducible habitat-based approach to estimate the spatial distribution of opportunity cost to fishers in data poor regions, assuming that the most accessible areas have higher values and their designation as no-take zones represents increased loss of fishing opportunities. Our method requires only habitat and bathymetric maps, a list of target species, the location of ports, and the relative importance for each port and/or vessel/gear type. The potential distribution of fishing resources is estimated from bathymetric ranges and benthic habitat distribution, while the relative importance of the different resources is estimated for each port, considering total catches (kg), revenues and/or stakeholder perception. Finally, the model can combine different cost layers to produce a comprehensive cost layer, and also allows for the evaluation of tradeoffs. The development of FishCake was based on data from a contentious conservation-planning arena (Abrolhos Bank, Brazil) in which attempts to expand MPA coverage failed due to fishers' resistance. The opportunity cost approach that we introduce herein allows for the incorporation of economic interests of different stakeholders and evaluation of tradeoffs among different stakeholder groups. The novel approach

  9. Impacts of Hydrologic and Geochemical Uncertainty on Predicting Uranium Migration at the Hanford 300 Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Hammond, G. E.; Lichtner, P. C.; Rockhold, M. L.

    2011-12-01

    In modeling the uranium migration within the Integrated Field Research Challenge (IFRC) site at the Hanford 300 Area, the model simulations are affected by both the hydrologic and geochemical uncertainties. This study investigates the propagation of both types of uncertainty in the simulation of a uranium desorption experiment using a Monte-Carlo framework. The hydrologic uncertainty arises from estimating the transient flow boundary conditions induced by the dynamics in the Columbia River and the underlying heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field, while the geochemical uncertainty is a result of limited knowledge in the geochemical reaction processes that take place in field and heterogeneity in source terms and reaction coefficients. We also evaluated the effectiveness of various conditioning data in reducing the uncertainty in the simulated uranium plume. For example, identifying the optimal boundary condition and estimating the 3D hydraulic conductivity field through inversion of concurrent conservative tracer test, and exploring the possibility of including the geophysical and geochemical data available at the site to characterize hydrologic and geochemical heterogeneities. The multi-realization capability of the parallel simulator, PFLOTRAN, enables this computationally demanding task to be completed within a reasonable turn-around time.

  10. Low body surface area predicts hepatotoxicity of nintedanib in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Satoshi; Sekine, Akimasa; Baba, Tomohisa; Yamanaka, Yumie; Sadoyama, Shinko; Yamakawa, Hideaki; Oda, Tsuneyuki; Okuda, Ryo; Kitamura, Hideya; Okudela, Koji; Iwasawa, Tae; Ohashi, Kenichi; Takemura, Tamiko; Ogura, Takashi

    2017-09-07

    After the commercialization of nintedanib in Japan, a high incidence of hepatotoxicity resulting in treatment interruption was noted in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients treated with nintedanib in our hospital. This study aimed to clarify the risk factors for hepatotoxicity of nintedanib. Sixty-eight consecutive cases of IPF newly treated with nintedanib at a dose of 150 mg twice daily from September 2015 to September 2016 were enrolled: 46 patients (67.6%) exhibited aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and/or alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation and 16 patients (23.5%) also had a Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) grade ≥2. Body surface area (BSA) was significantly lower in the CTCAE grade ≥2 group than in another group. A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the association between BSA and AST/ALT elevation with CTCAE grade ≥2 was statistically significant. Eight of 10 patients who resumed nintedanib at a reduced dose of 100 mg twice daily after interruption due to hepatotoxicity did not again develop AST/ALT elevation. In conclusion, a low BSA was associated with hepatotoxicity of nintedanib at a dose of 150 mg twice daily. It would be a good option for patients with a small physique to start nintedanib at a dose of 100 mg twice daily and then increase if possible after confirming its safety.

  11. Predicting outdoor recreation area use in a Southeastern US county: a signal detection analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoffman, Danielle E; Wilcox, Sara; Kaczynski, Andrew T; Child, Stephanie; Barr-Anderson, Daheia J; Sharpe, Patricia A; Forthofer, Melinda

    2014-12-01

    Use of outdoor recreation areas (ORAs) is correlated with physical activity (PA) in community-dwelling adults. Additionally, the wide spread availability of ORAs, including their placement in disadvantaged neighborhoods, make them an especially promising venue through which to promote PA. The purpose of this study was to examine the combination of individual-level factors associated with ORA use in a socioeconomically diverse Southeastern US county. A 2011 random digit-dial survey included 829 adults aged 18+ years with complete data; questions assessed PA level and use/perceived safety of ORAs. Signal detection analysis, a non-parametric recursive partitioning technique, identified cutpoints for defining subgroups of respondents based on ORA use. Seven subgroups were defined ranging from 77.2 % ORA use (younger, met PA recommendations) to 31.8 % ORA use (older, perceived ORAs to be less safe). Signal detection did not identify gender or race as important for defining subgroups. Results suggest that gendered and ethnically-focused ORA promotion campaigns might be unnecessary. Instead, efforts could focus on increasing awareness of ORA facilities among older, less active adults.

  12. Impacts of different plant functional types on ambient ozone predictions in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas (SMAs), Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.-K.; Woo, J.-H.; Park, R. S.; Song, C. H.; Kim, J.-H.; Ban, S.-J.; Park, J.-H.

    2014-07-01

    Plant functional type (PFT) distributions affect the results of biogenic emission modeling as well as O3 and particulate matter (PM) simulations using chemistry-transport models (CTMs). This paper analyzes the variations of both surface biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and O3 concentrations due to changes in the PFT distributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas, Korea. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Pennsylvania State Meso-scale Model (MM5)/the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN)/the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)/the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations were implemented over the Seoul Metropolitan Areas in Korea to predict surface O3 concentrations for the period of 1 May to 31 June 2008. Starting from a performance check of CTM predictions, we consecutively assessed the effects of PFT area deviations on the MEGAN BVOC and CTM O3 predictions, and we further considered the basis of geospatial and statistical analyses. The three PFT data sets considered were (1) the Korean PFT, developed with Korea-specific vegetation database; (2) the CDP PFT, adopted from the community data portal (CDP) of US National Center for Atmospheric Research in the United States (NCAR); (3) MODIS PFT, reclassified from the NASA Terra and Aqua combined land cover products. Although the CMAQ performance check reveals that all of the three different PFT data sets are applicable choices for regulatory modeling practice, noticeable primary data (i.e., PFT and Leaf Area Index (LAI)) was observed to be missing in many geographic locations. Based on the assessed effect of such missing data on CMAQ O3 predictions, we found that this missing data can cause spatially increased bias in CMAQ O3. Thus, it must be resolved in the near future to obtain more accurate biogenic emission and chemistry transport modeling results. Comparisons of MEGAN biogenic emission results with the three different PFT data showed that broadleaf

  13. Smart Salinity Management in Low-lying Deltaic Areas: A Model Predictive Control Scheme Applied to a Test Canal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekin Aydin, Boran; Rutten, Martine; Oude Essink, Gualbert H. P.; Delsman, Joost; Abraham, Edo

    2017-04-01

    Saline groundwater exfiltration to surface water increases surface water salinization and degrades the water quality in low-lying deltaic areas. As the use of surface water is less appropriate for agricultural, industrial and drinking water production due to salinization, freshwater diverted from a river is often utilised for flushing canals and ditches in these areas. Current water management strategies for flushing control in low-lying deltaic areas have to be revised to mitigate expected negative effects of climate change, sea level increase and decreasing fresh water availability. Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful control method that is increasingly used for managing water systems. The explicit consideration of constraints and multi-objective management are important features of MPC. In this study, an MPC scheme is developed and tested for combined salinity and water level control of a ditch/water course. Saline groundwater exfiltration fluxes and salinities are modelled by applying the Rapid Saline Groundwater Exfiltration Model (RSGEM) and used as known disturbances for the MPC scheme. The developed control scheme is applied to a test canal using real data from a Dutch polder (Polders are low lying and artificially drained areas surrounded by dikes, with a controlled surface water level below M.S.L) which is affected by high saline groundwater exfiltration. This test demonstrates the performance of the controller for a real scenario. Simulation results show that MPC can increase the operational efficiency of flushing operations.

  14. A stochastic simulation model to predict future air quality in protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavros, E.; McKenzie, D.; Larkin, N.; Strand, T.; Lamb, B. K.

    2010-12-01

    It is widely accepted in both scientific and political communities such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), that climate is changing. Previous studies have shown that expected changes in climate will increase the severity of wild fire. It is necessary to assess the impact of global climate change on wildfire and consequent effects on air quality in order to meet existing air quality regulations such as the Regional Haze Rule, which regulates visibility in Class 1 or “pristine areas”, and the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The challenge in such an assessment lies in not only integrating disciplines (climatology, fire ecology, air chemistry), but also in bridging knowledge across temporal (hourly to decadal) and spatial scales (local to global). In response to this challenge, we are integrating a stochastic model to simulate fire events, the Fire Scenario Builder (FSB), and the BlueSky Modeling Framework, which has a strong record of successfully linking wildfire emissions to air quality. FSB integrates fuel information and meteorological data to estimate regional fire season summary statistics such as total area burned and number of fire starts. The Blue Sky Modeling Framework then simulates total fuel consumption and smoke emissions both in local air sheds and downwind. Emissions are then fed into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model through Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE). The goal of this research is threefold: 1) to compare emission results from the FSB-Blue Sky integration for current vs. future decades; 2) to assess model uncertainty, by comparing model output to observations, analyzing parameter sensitivity, and verifying the theoretical basis of FSB model structure; and, 3) prepare data files for analysis on air quality.

  15. An application of plot-scale NDVI in predicting carbon dioxide exchange and leaf area index in heterogeneous subarctic tundra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dagg, J.; Lafleur, P.

    2010-07-01

    This paper reported on a study that examined the flow of carbon into and out of tundra ecosystems. It is necessary to accurately predict carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) exchange in the Tundra because of the impacts of climate change on carbon stored in permafrost. Understanding the relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation and CO{sub 2} exchange may explain how small-scale variation in vegetation community extends to remotely sensed estimates of landscape characteristics. In this study, CO{sub 2} fluxes were measured with a portable chamber in a range of Tundra vegetation communities. Biomass and leaf area were measured with destructive harvest, and NDVI was obtained using a hand-held infrared camera. There was a weak correlation between NDVI and leaf area index in some vegetation communities, but a significant correlation between NDVI and biomass, including mosses. NDVI was found to be strongly related to photosynthetic activity and net CO{sub 2} uptake in all vegetation groups. However, NDVI related to ecosystem respiration only in wet sedge. It was concluded that at plot scale, the ability of NDVI to predict ecosystem properties and CO{sub 2} exchange in heterogeneous Tundra vegetation is variable.

  16. Improvement of risk prediction by genomic profiling: reclassification measures versus the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihaescu, Raluca; van Zitteren, Moniek; van Hoek, Mandy; Sijbrands, Eric J G; Uitterlinden, André G; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Hofman, Albert; Hunink, M G Myriam; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

    2010-08-01

    Reclassification is observed even when there is no or minimal improvement in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and it is unclear whether it indicates improved clinical utility. The authors investigated total reclassification, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement for different DeltaAUC using empirical and simulated data. Empirical analyses compared prediction of type 2 diabetes risk based on age, sex, and body mass index with prediction updated with 18 established genetic risk factors. Simulated data were used to investigate measures of reclassification against DeltaAUCs of 0.005, 0.05, and 0.10. Total reclassification and net reclassification improvement were calculated for all possible cutoff values. The AUC of type 2 diabetes risk prediction improved from 0.63 to 0.66 when 18 polymorphisms were added, whereas total reclassification ranged from 0% to 22.5% depending on the cutoff value chosen. In the simulation study, total reclassification, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement increased with higher DeltaAUC. When DeltaAUC was low (0.005), net reclassification improvement values were close to zero, integrated discrimination improvement was 0.08% (P > 0.05), but total reclassification ranged from 0 to 6.7%. Reclassification increases with increasing AUC but predominantly varies with the cutoff values chosen. Reclassification observed in the absence of AUC increase is unlikely to improve clinical utility.

  17. Variability in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate by Area under the Curve Predicts Renal Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szu-Chia Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Greater variability in renal function is associated with mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD. However, few studies have demonstrated the predictive value of renal function variability in relation to renal outcomes. This study investigates the predictive ability of different methods of determining estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR variability for progression to renal replacement therapy (RRT in CKD patients. This was a prospective observational study, which enrolled 1,862 CKD patients. The renal end point was defined as commencement of RRT. The variability in eGFR was measured by the area under the eGFR curve (AUC%. A significant improvement in model prediction was based on the −2 log likelihood ratio statistic. During a median 28.7-month follow-up, there were 564 (30.3% patients receiving RRT. In an adjusted Cox model, a smaller initial eGFR AUC%_12M (P<0.001, a smaller peak eGFR AUC%_12M (P<0.001, and a larger negative eGFR slope_12M (P<0.001 were associated with a higher risk of renal end point. Two calculated formulas: initial eGFR AUC%_12M and eGFR slope_12M were the best predictors. Our results demonstrate that the greater eGFR variability by AUC% is associated with the higher risk of progression to RRT.

  18. Predicting the distribution of out-of-reach biotopes with decision trees in a Swedish marine protected area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Mirelis, Genoveva; Lindegarth, Mats

    2012-12-01

    Through spatially explicit predictive models, knowledge of spatial patterns of biota can be generated for out-of-reach environments, where there is a paucity of survey data. This knowledge is invaluable for conservation decisions. We used distribution modeling to predict the occurrence of benthic biotopes, or megafaunal communities of the seabed, to support the spatial planning of a marine national park. Nine biotope classes were obtained prior to modeling from multivariate species data derived from point source, underwater imagery. Five map layers relating to depth and terrain were used as predictor variables. Biotope type was predicted on a pixel-by-pixel basis, where pixel size was 15 x 15 m and total modeled area was 455 km2. To choose a suitable modeling technique we compared the performance of five common models based on recursive partitioning: two types of classification and regression trees ([1] pruned by 10-fold cross-validation and [2] pruned by minimizing complexity), random forests, conditional inference (CI) trees, and CI forests. The selected model was a CI forest (an ensemble of CI trees), a machine-learning technique whose discriminatory power (class-by-class area under the curve [AUC] ranged from 0.75 to 0.86) and classification accuracy (72%) surpassed those of the other methods tested. Conditional inference trees are virtually new to the field of ecology. The final model's overall prediction error was 28%. Model predictions were also checked against a custom-built measure of dubiousness, calculated at the polygon level. Key factors other than the choice of modeling technique include: the use of a multinomial response, accounting for the heterogeneity of observations, and spatial autocorrelation. To illustrate how the model results can be implemented in spatial planning, representation of biodiversity in the national park was described and quantified. Given a goal of maximizing classification accuracy, we conclude that conditional inference trees

  19. Chemical composition of drinking water as a possible environment-specific factor modifying the thyroid risk in the areas subjected to radioiodine contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolmykova, Lyudmila; Korobova, Elena; Ryzhenko, Boris

    2015-04-01

    Water is one of the main natural agents providing chemical elements' migration in the environment and food chains. In our opinion a study of spatial variation of the essential trace elements in local drinking water is worth considering as the factor that may contribute to variation of the health risk in areas contaminated by radionuclides and radioiodine in particular. Radioiodine was proved to increase the risk of thyroid cancer among children who lived in areas contaminated during the Chernobyl accident. It was also shown that low stable iodine status of the contaminated area and population also contributed to the risk of this disease in case of radionuclide contamination. The goal of the study was to investigate chemical composition of the drinking water in rural settlements of the Bryansk oblast' subjected to radioiodine contamination and to evaluate speciation of stable I and Se on the basis of their total concentration and chemical composition of the real water samples with the help of thermodynamic modelling. Water samples were collected from different aquifers discharging at different depths (dug wells, local private bore holes and water pipes) in rural settlements located in areas with contrasting soil iodine status. Thermodynamic modelling was performed using original software (HCh code of Y.Shvarov, Moscow State University, RUSSIA) incorporating the measured pH, Corg and elements' concentration values. Performed modelling showed possibility of formation of complex CaI+ ion in aqueous phase, I sorption by goethite and transfer of Se to solid phase as FeSe in the observed pH-Eh conditions. It helped to identify environmental conditions providing high I and Se mobility and their depletion from natural waters. Both the experimental data and modeling showed that I and Se migration and deficiency in natural water is closely connected to pH, Eh conditions and the concentration of typomorphic chemical elements (Ca, Mg, Fe) defining the class of water migration

  20. Do changes in subjective sleep and biological rhythms predict worsening in postpartum depressive symptoms? A prospective study across the perinatal period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawczak, Elizabeth M; Minuzzi, Luciano; Hidalgo, Maria Paz; Frey, Benicio N

    2016-08-01

    Abnormalities of sleep and biological rhythms have been widely implicated in the pathophysiology of major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar disorder (BD). However, less is known about the influence of biological rhythm disruptions across the perinatal period on postpartum depression (PPD). The objective of this study was to prospectively evaluate the relationship between subjective changes in both sleep and biological rhythms and worsening of depressive symptoms from pregnancy to the postpartum period in women with and without mood disorders. Eighty-three participants (38 euthymic women with a history of a mood disorder and 45 healthy controls) were studied. Participants completed subjective assessments of sleep (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index), biological rhythm disturbances (Biological Rhythms Interview of Assessment in Neuropsychiatry), and depressive symptoms (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale) prospectively at two time points: third trimester of pregnancy and at 6-12 weeks postpartum. Multivariate regression analyses showed that changes in biological rhythms across the perinatal period predicted worsening of depressive symptoms in both groups. Moreover, women with a history of a mood disorder showed higher levels of sleep and biological rhythm disruption during both pregnancy and the postpartum period. These findings suggest that disruptions in biological rhythms during the perinatal period increase the risk for postpartum mood worsening in healthy pregnant as well as in pregnant women with a history of mood disorders.

  1. Hybrid equation/agent-based model of ischemia-induced hyperemia and pressure ulcer formation predicts greater propensity to ulcerate in subjects with spinal cord injury.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Solovyev

    Full Text Available Pressure ulcers are costly and life-threatening complications for people with spinal cord injury (SCI. People with SCI also exhibit differential blood flow properties in non-ulcerated skin. We hypothesized that a computer simulation of the pressure ulcer formation process, informed by data regarding skin blood flow and reactive hyperemia in response to pressure, could provide insights into the pathogenesis and effective treatment of post-SCI pressure ulcers. Agent-Based Models (ABM are useful in settings such as pressure ulcers, in which spatial realism is important. Ordinary Differential Equation-based (ODE models are useful when modeling physiological phenomena such as reactive hyperemia. Accordingly, we constructed a hybrid model that combines ODEs related to blood flow along with an ABM of skin injury, inflammation, and ulcer formation. The relationship between pressure and the course of ulcer formation, as well as several other important characteristic patterns of pressure ulcer formation, was demonstrated in this model. The ODE portion of this model was calibrated to data related to blood flow following experimental pressure responses in non-injured human subjects or to data from people with SCI. This model predicted a higher propensity to form ulcers in response to pressure in people with SCI vs. non-injured control subjects, and thus may serve as novel diagnostic platform for post-SCI ulcer formation.

  2. Compensating for literature annotation bias when predicting novel drug-disease relationships through Medical Subject Heading Over-representation Profile (MeSHOP) similarity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Warren A; Ouellette, B F Francis; Wasserman, Wyeth W

    2013-01-01

    Using annotations to the articles in MEDLINE®/PubMed®, over six thousand chemical compounds with pharmacological actions have been tracked since 1996. Medical Subject Heading Over-representation Profiles (MeSHOPs) quantitatively leverage the literature associated with biological entities such as diseases or drugs, providing the opportunity to reposition known compounds towards novel disease applications. A MeSHOP is constructed by counting the number of times each medical subject term is assigned to an entity-related research publication in the MEDLINE database and calculating the significance of the count by comparing against the count of the term in a background set of publications. Based on the expectation that drugs suitable for treatment of a disease (or disease symptom) will have similar annotation properties to the disease, we successfully predict drug-disease associations by comparing MeSHOPs of diseases and drugs. The MeSHOP comparison approach delivers an 11% improvement over bibliometric baselines. However, novel drug-disease associations are observed to be biased towards drugs and diseases with more publications. To account for the annotation biases, a correction procedure is introduced and evaluated. By explicitly accounting for the annotation bias, unexpectedly similar drug-disease pairs are highlighted as candidates for drug repositioning research. MeSHOPs are shown to provide a literature-supported perspective for discovery of new links between drugs and diseases based on pre-existing knowledge.

  3. Technetium uptake predicts remission and relapse in Grave's disease patients on antithyroid drugs for at least 1 year in South Indian subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neha Singhal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Most of the information on remission related factors in Grave's disease are derived from Western literature. It is likely that there may be additional prognostic factors and differences in the postdrug treatment course of Grave's disease in India. Aim: To study factors which predict remission/relapse in Grave's disease patients from South India. Also to establish if technetium (Tc uptake has a role in predicting remission. Subjects and Methods: Records of 174 patients with clinical, biochemical, and scintigraphic criteria consistent with Grave's disease, seen in our Institution between January 2006 and 2014 were analyzed. Patient factors, drug-related factors, Tc-99m uptake and other clinical factors were compared between the remission and nonremission groups. Statistical Analysis Used: Mann–Whitney U-test and Chi-square tests were used when appropriate to compare the groups. Results: Fifty-seven (32.7% patients attained remission after at least 1 year of thionamide therapy. Of these, 11 (19.2% patients relapsed within 1 year. Age, gender, goiter, and presence of extrathyroidal manifestations were not associated with remission. Higher values of Tc uptake were positively associated with remission (P- 0.02. Time to achievement of normal thyroid function and composite dose: Time scores were significantly associated with remission (P - 0.05 and P - 0.01, respectively. Patients with lower FT4 at presentation had a higher chance of remission (P - 0.01. The relapse rates were lower than previously reported in the literature. A higher Tc uptake was found to be significantly associated with relapse also (P - 0.009. Conclusion: The prognostic factors associated with remission in Graves's disease in this South Indian study are not the same as that reported in Western literature. Tc scintigraphy may have an additional role in identifying people who are likely to undergo remission and thus predict the outcome of Grave's disease.

  4. Managing Stormwater Runoff From Urban Areas in Consideration of Predicted Climate Change Impacts in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M.

    2014-12-01

    Mean annual temperature and precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic, USA, increased over the last century, and global climate models applied to this region generally project that these trends will continue throughout the year 2100. Higher temperatures and associated evapotranspiration may decrease total annual baseflow, even as stormflow events increase in magnitude and intensity, leading to more frequent and larger nutrient and sediment fluxes to receiving waters. Development will create more impervious surfaces, thereby increasing the ratio of stormflow to baseflow volumes. The possibility of increasing riverine flow associated with climate change this century necessitates an evaluation of various best management practices (BMPs) in urban areas to develop and utilize BMPs that optimize reductions in nutrient and sediment fluxes, as well as determine the extent to which these BMPs should be implemented. The headwaters of the Patuxent watershed are located in a highly developed urban corridor between Washington DC and Baltimore thus making it an ideal setting to explore potential climate change impacts in urban areas. Scenarios generated from a system of linked watershed and estuarine models were used to determine climate and land use change effects on Patuxent River runoff and estuarine water quality. The uncertainties of climate predictions and their implications regarding proactive mitigation approaches to manage pollutant fluxes from urban areas are discussed.

  5. Impacts of different plant functional types on ambient ozone predictions in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas (SMA), Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.-K.; Woo, J.-H.; Park, R. S.; Song, C. H.; Kim, J.-H.; Ban, S.-J.; Park, J.-H.

    2013-09-01

    Plant functional type (PFT) distributions affect the results of biogenic emission modeling as well as O3 and PM simulations using chemistry-transport models (CTMs). This paper analyzes the variations of both surface biogenic VOC emissions and O3 concentrations due to changes in the PFT distributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas, Korea. Also, this paper attempts to provide important implications for biogenic emissions modeling studies for CTM simulations. MM5-MEGAN-SMOKE-CMAQ model simulations were implemented over the Seoul Metropolitan Areas in Korea to predict surface O3 concentrations for the period of 1 May to 31 June 2008. Starting from MEGAN biogenic emissions analysis with three different sources of PFT input data, US EPA CMAQ O3 simulation results were evaluated by surface O3 monitoring datasets and further considered on the basis of geospatial and statistical analyses. The three PFT datasets considered were "(1)KORPFT", developed with a region specific vegetation database; (2) CDP, adopted from US NCAR; and (3) MODIS, reclassified from the NASA Terra and Aqua combined land cover products. Comparisons of MEGAN biogenic emission results with the three different PFT data showed that broadleaf trees (BT) are the most significant contributor, followed by needleleaf trees (NT), shrub (SB), and herbaceous plants (HB) to the total biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). In addition, isoprene from BT and terpene from NT were recognized as significant primary and secondary BVOC species in terms of BVOC emissions distributions and O3-forming potentials in the study domain. Multiple regression analyses with the different PFT data (δO3 vs. δPFTs) suggest that KORPFT can provide reasonable information to the framework of MEGAN biogenic emissions modeling and CTM O3 predictions. Analyses of the CMAQ performance statistics suggest that deviations of BT areas can significantly affect CMAQ isoprene and O3 predictions. From further evaluations of the isoprene and O

  6. Factors associated with poor nutritional status among community dwelling Lebanese elderly subjects living in rural areas: results of the AMEL study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulos, C; Salameh, P; Barberger-Gateau, P

    2014-05-01

    This study aimed to assess the nutritional status, measured by MNA, and its association with socio-demographic indicators and health related characteristics of a representative sample of community dwelling elderly subjects. Cross-sectional study. Community dwelling elderly individuals living in rural communities in Lebanon. 1200 elderly individuals aged 65 years or more. Socio-demographic indicators and health related characteristics were recorded during a standardized interview. Nutritional status was assessed through Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA). The 5-item GDS score and the WHO-5-A score were used to assess mood, whereas Mini Mental Status (MMS) was applied to evaluate cognitive status. The prevalence of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition was 8.0% respective 29.1% of the study sample. Malnutrition was significantly more frequent in elderly subjects aged more than 85 years, in females, widowed and illiterate people. Moreover, participants who reported lower financial status were more often malnourished or at risk of malnutrition. Regarding health status, poor nutritional status was more common among those reporting more than three chronic diseases, taking more than three drugs daily, suffering from chronic pain and those who had worse oral health status. Also, depressive disorders and cognitive dysfunction were significantly related to malnutrition. After multivariate analysis following variables remained independently associated to malnutrition: living in the governorate of Nabatieh (ORa 2.30, 95% CI 1.35 -3.93), reporting higher income (ORa 0.77, 95% CI 0.61-0.97), higher number of comorbidities (ORa 1.22, 95% CI 1.12-1.32), chronic pain (ORa 1.72, 95% CI 1.24-2.39), and depressive disorders (ORa 1.66, 95% CI 1.47-1.88). On the other hand, better cognitive functioning was strongly associated with decreased nutritional risk (ORa 0.27, 95%CI 0.17-0.43). Our results highlighted the close relationship between health status and malnutrition. The

  7. Testing an extended theory of planned behaviour to predict young people's sun safety in a high risk area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Katherine M; Robinson, Natalie G; Young, Ross McD; Anderson, Peter J; Hyde, Melissa K; Greenbank, Susan; Rolfe, Toni; Keane, Julie; Vardon, Paul; Baskerville, Debra

    2008-09-01

    The present research examined the sun protection intentions and behaviours of young people in a high risk skin cancer area using an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) incorporating additional social influences of group and image norms. The study employed a prospective design to examine young people's sun protection intentions and behaviour. Participants (N=1,134), aged 12-20 years, were students (school, university, TAFE) and young employees living in Queensland, Australia. Participants completed a questionnaire assessing the TPB predictors (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control) and additional social influences (group norm, image norm) of sun protection intentions. Two weeks later, participants (N=734) reported their sun protection behaviour for the previous fortnight. Results revealed that the TPB variables of attitude, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control and the additional social influence variable of group norms, but not image norms, emerged as significant predictors of intentions to engage in sun protection. The extended TPB variables accounted for 36% of the variance in intentions. For behaviour, the extended TPB variables accounted for 27% of the variance with both intention and, unexpectedly, group norm as the significant direct predictors of sun protective behaviours. Results of this study provide support for the application of the TPB in the sun safety context and highlight the importance of considering the influence of group norms in the development of future interventions to increase young people's sun protection intentions and behaviour.

  8. Landslide prediction using combined deterministic and probabilistic methods in hilly area of Mt. Medvednica in Zagreb City, Croatia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunxiang; Watanabe, Naoki; Marui, Hideaki

    2013-04-01

    The hilly slopes of Mt. Medvednica are stretched in the northwestern part of Zagreb City, Croatia, and extend to approximately 180km2. In this area, landslides, e.g. Kostanjek landslide and Črešnjevec landslide, have brought damage to many houses, roads, farmlands, grassland and etc. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the potential landslides and to enhance landslide inventory for hazard mitigation and security management of local society in this area. We combined deterministic method and probabilistic method to assess potential landslides including their locations, size and sliding surfaces. Firstly, this study area is divided into several slope units that have similar topographic and geological characteristics using the hydrology analysis tool in ArcGIS. Then, a GIS-based modified three-dimensional Hovland's method for slope stability analysis system is developed to identify the sliding surface and corresponding three-dimensional safety factor for each slope unit. Each sliding surface is assumed to be the lower part of each ellipsoid. The direction of inclination of the ellipsoid is considered to be the same as the main dip direction of the slope unit. The center point of the ellipsoid is randomly set to the center point of a grid cell in the slope unit. The minimum three-dimensional safety factor and corresponding critical sliding surface are also obtained for each slope unit. Thirdly, since a single value of safety factor is insufficient to evaluate the slope stability of a slope unit, the ratio of the number of calculation cases in which the three-dimensional safety factor values less than 1.0 to the total number of trial calculation is defined as the failure probability of the slope unit. If the failure probability is more than 80%, the slope unit is distinguished as 'unstable' from other slope units and the landslide hazard can be mapped for the whole study area.

  9. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative seabird abundance in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents relative seabird abundance predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived...

  10. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative uncertainty for seabird diversity metrics in the New York offshore planning area by NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents relative seabird abundance predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived...

  11. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of seabird species richness in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird species richness, or number of species, predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area....

  12. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative uncertainty for sediment size in the New York offshore planning area by NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size prediction uncertainty from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also...

  13. Telematics System dedicated for Provisioning of On-Line Information about Predicted Occupancy of Highway Parking Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas Zelinka

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available More and more often occurs problem with the lack of parking places for trucks over 3.5t, which is related to the increase in the intensity of freight transport. Consequently this can lead to very dangerous situations with parking of trucks because drivers do not have information about the occupancy of the nearest parking. The paper presents an intelligent transportation system, which provides information about the predicted occupancy of parking lots to truck drivers. Providing this information leads to optimizing the use of existing parking areas on the highway network and also makes it easier for drivers to deciding on a suitable location for parking, which ultimately contributes to the fluency and safety of traffic.

  14. Prediction of the indoor temperatures of an urban area with an in-time regression mapping approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smargiassi, Audrey; Fournier, Michel; Griot, Chloé; Baudouin, Yves; Kosatsky, Tom

    2008-05-01

    Excess mortality has been noted during high ambient temperature episodes. During such episodes, individuals are not likely to be uniformly exposed to temperatures within cities. Exposure of individuals to high temperatures is likely to fluctuate with the micro-urban variation of outdoor temperatures (heat island effect) and with factors linked to building properties. In this paper, a GIS-based regression mapping approach is proposed to model urban spatial patterns of indoor temperatures in time, for all residential buildings of an urban area. In July 2005, the hourly indoor temperature was measured with data loggers for 31 consecutive days, concurrently in 75 dwellings in Montreal. The general estimating equation model (GEE) developed to predict indoor temperatures integrates temporal variability of outdoor temperatures (and their 24 h moving average), with geo-referenced determinants available for the entire city, such as surface temperatures at each site (from a satellite image) and building characteristics (from the Montreal Property Assessment database). The proportion of the variability of the indoor temperatures explained increases from 20%, using only outdoor temperatures, to 54% with the full model. Using this model, high-resolution maps of indoor temperatures can be provided across an entire urban area. The model developed adds a temporal dimension to similar regression mapping approaches used to estimate exposure for population health studies, based on spatial predictors, and can thus be used to predict exposure to indoor temperatures under various outdoor temperature scenarios. It is thus concluded that such a model might be used as a means of mapping indoor temperatures either to inform urban planning and housing strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change, to orient public health interventions, or as a basis for assessing exposure as part of epidemiological studies.

  15. Global trends in nasopharyngeal cancer mortality since 1970 and predictions for 2020: Focus on low-risk areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carioli, Greta; Negri, Eva; Kawakita, Daisuke; Garavello, Werner; La Vecchia, Carlo; Malvezzi, Matteo

    2017-05-15

    Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) mortality shows great disparity between endemic high risk areas, where non-keratinizing carcinoma (NKC) histology is prevalent, and non-endemic low risk regions, where the keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma (KSCC) type is more frequent. We used the World Health Organization database to calculate NPC mortality trends from 1970 to 2014 in several countries worldwide. For the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Japan, we also predicted trends to 2020. In 2012, the highest age-standardized (world standard) rates were in Hong Kong (4.51/100,000 men and 1.15/100,000 women), followed by selected Eastern European countries. The lowest rates were in Northern Europe and Latin America. EU rates were 0.27/100,000 men and 0.09/100,000 women, US rates were 0.20/100,000 men and 0.08/100,000 women and Japanese rates were 0.16/100,000 men and 0.04/100,000 women. NPC mortality trends were favourable for several countries. The decline was -15% in men and -5% in women between 2002 and 2012 in the EU, -12% in men and -9% in women in the US and about -30% in both sexes in Hong Kong and Japan. The favourable patterns in Europe and the United States are predicted to continue. Changes in salted fish and preserved food consumption account for the fall in NKC. Smoking and alcohol prevalence disparities between sexes and geographic areas may explain the different rates and trends observed for KSCC and partially for NKC. Dietary patterns, as well as improvement in management of the disease, may partly account for the observed trends, too. © 2017 UICC.

  16. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  17. Predicting soil erosion under land-cover area and climate changes using the revised universal soil loss equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Soyoung; Jin, Cheunggil; Choi, Chuluong

    2011-11-01

    Loss of soil has become a problem worldwide, and as concerns about the environment grow, active research has begun regarding soil erosion and soil-preservation polices. This study analyzed the trend of soil loss in South Korea over the past 30-year and predicted future soil loss in 2020 using the revised universal soil loss equation. In the period 1975-2005, soil loss showed an increasing trend, the 2005 value represents a 0.59 Mg/ha (2.58%) increase. Scenario 1 assumes that urban areas have a similar trend to that between 1975 and 2005 and that precipitation amount follows scenario A1B of the IPCC. The soil loss amount for 2020 land-cover map that account for the ECVAM should increase by 25.0~26.3% compared to 1975. In the case where the ECVAM is not considered, soil loss should increase by 27.7~31.8%. In Scenario 2, in which the urban area and precipitation follow the same trend as between 1975 and 2005, soil loss for 2020 land-cover map that consider the ECVAM will increase by 6.8%~7.9% compared to 1975. When the ECVAM is not considered, soil loss will increase by 9.1~12.6%. The environmental and legislative value of preservation should be considered to minimize erosion and allow for more sustainable development.

  18. Increasing mortality from ischaemic heart disease in China from 2004 to 2010: disproportionate rise in rural areas and elderly subjects. 438 million person-years follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaofei; Khan, Arshad A; Haq, Ehtesham Ul; Rahim, Aadil; Hu, Dayi; Attia, John; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Ma, Xiaoyan; Ding, Rongjing; Boyle, Andrew J

    2017-01-01

    We sought to ascertain the changes in mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) from 2004 to 2010 in China as the sheer size of China's population makes disease patterns relevant globally. Data on IHD mortality were obtained from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention National Disease Surveillance Point System, which includes 161 counties and a population of over 73 million-a representative sample of over 6% of the entire population of China. Both crude and World Health Organization (WHO)-standardized IHD mortality increased, in both men and women and in both urban and rural locations, during the study period, demonstrating the effect of urbanization, economic growth, and epidemiological transition on cardiovascular health. WHO-standardized IHD mortality increased for rural males by 9.2% per year (95% CI: 6.7-11.7%; P < 0.0001), and the trend was statistically significantly higher (P = 0.0001) than in urban males by 6.4% per year (95% CI: 3-10%; P = 0.02). WHO-standardized IHD mortality rate increased for rural females by 7.0% per year (95% CI: 4.6-9.4%; P < 0.0001); this was statistically significantly higher than urban females by 4.3% per year (95% CI: 1-8%; P = 0.02). The age group over 80 years showed the greatest increase in IHD mortality. Mortality from IHD is increasing in China, in contrast to decreasing in other countries. This is largely driven by increasing IHD mortality in rural areas and subjects over 80 years old. This needs urgent attention by public health workers and policymakers.

  19. Evaluating the Streif index against commercial subjective ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Historical physiological data for Golden Delicious and Starking apples (Malus domestica Borkh.) from various orchards in the Ceres area were analysed. Significant correlations were obtained between the SI and subjective predictions of the release date for harvesting, after adapting the local starch breakdown values.

  20. Geo-environmental model for the prediction of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria in an area with dry climate and extensive irrigated crops. The case of Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simón, Luis; Afonin, Alexandr; López-Díez, Lucía Isabel; González-Miguel, Javier; Morchón, Rodrigo; Carretón, Elena; Montoya-Alonso, José Alberto; Kartashev, Vladimir; Simón, Fernando

    2014-03-01

    Zoonotic filarioses caused by Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens are transmitted by culicid mosquitoes. Therefore Dirofilaria transmission depends on climatic factors like temperature and humidity. In spite of the dry climate of most of the Spanish territory, there are extensive irrigated crops areas providing moist habitats favourable for mosquito breeding. A GIS model to predict the risk of Dirofilaria transmission in Spain, based on temperatures and rainfall data as well as in the distribution of irrigated crops areas, is constructed. The model predicts that potential risk of Dirofilaria transmission exists in all the Spanish territory. Highest transmission risk exists in several areas of Andalucía, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, Aragón and Cataluña, where moderate/high temperatures coincide with extensive irrigated crops. High risk in Balearic Islands and in some points of Canary Islands, is also predicted. The lowest risk is predicted in Northern cold and scarcely or non-irrigated dry Southeastern areas. The existence of irrigations locally increases transmission risk in low rainfall areas of the Spanish territory. The model can contribute to implement rational preventive therapy guidelines in accordance with the transmission characteristics of each local area. Moreover, the use of humidity-related factors could be of interest in future predictions to be performed in countries with similar environmental characteristics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Possibilities of mine gases outflow prediction during pressure drops considering abandoned shaft located in old coal mining area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wrona, P. [Silesian University of Technology, Gleiwitz (Poland). Inst. of Geotechnology, Mining Geophysics and Ecology of Industrial Areas

    2005-09-01

    There are abandoned mine shafts, small shafts and drifts located in an old, shallow coal mining area at the slope of Zabrze Dome. Creation of voids and connections with abandoned excavations hasn't been avoided during liquidation of these constructions. Mine gas outflow can create a hazard for people's safety, so it may be helpful to be able to predict volume flow of out flowing gases. One of the abandoned shafts has been selected to conduct extensive measurements of volume flow of mine gases during pressure drops. One case has been selected to perform a comparison between measured and calculated results. Calculated results have been obtained with application of Torricelli's model of gas outflow phenomena from a tank. Pressure drops are considered as the external input functions (the extortions) with quantity of volume flow in the abandoned shaft as the response. The coal shaft must have sufficient volume of voids and a leaky lock. The case of the extortion which is built of pressure drop and pressure buildup is discussed, too. The loop characteristic as the result of the extortion may indicate the existence of volume flow in a hysteresis curve. Mine gases volume flow from abandoned mine shaft depends on time of pressure drop and pressure changes rate. Concentration of CO{sub 2} in mine gases out flowing from abandoned mine shafts located at the slope of Zabrze Dome exceeded 10%. Concentration of CO{sub 2} depends on time of pressure drop, too. The model could be a useful and very simple tool to perform predictions for gas hazard estimations. (orig.)

  2. Predicting the effect of tilling practices on wind erosion activity: application of the Wind Erosion Prediction System in a sand drift area in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Riksen, M.J.P.M.; Visser, S.M.

    2008-01-01

    The inland drift sand area in The Netherlands forms a unique ecosystem in northern Europe, but is characterized by a rapid decline in both aeolian activity and area size. It is therefore necessary to investigate how the drift sand areas can be preserved, and how their immobilization by vegetation

  3. Service life prediction. Development of models for predicting the service life of power plant components subject to thermomechanical creep fatigue; Lebensdauervorhersage. Entwicklung von Modellen zur Lebensdauervorhersage von Kraftwerksbauteilen unter thermisch-mechanischer Kriechermuedungsbeanspruchung. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, L.; Scholz, A. [Technische Univ. Darmstadt (Germany). Institut fuer Werkstoffkunde; Hartrott, P. von; Schlesinger, M. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    Extensive use is made of massive components of heat resistant and highly heat resistant materials in installations of the power and heating industry. These components are exposed to varying thermomechanical stress as a result of ramping-up and down processes. In this research project two computer-assisted methods of predicting service life until crack initiation were extended to include cases of thermomechanical multi-axis stress conducive to creep fatigue and of superposition of high-cycle stress on power plant components. Investigations were limited to rotor steel of type X12CrMoWVNbN10-1-1. Complex thermomechanical multi-axis experiments were performed on round, notched and cruciform test specimens of close-to-life dimensions in order to demonstrate by experiment the validity of these models. The results of these calculations showed an acceptable degree of agreement between experiment and simulation for both models. Calculations on earlier TMF experiments performed at IfW on hollow specimens of 1%CrMoNiV showed good predictability for both the SARA and the ThoMat programme. Calculations on experiments performed at MPA Stuttgart on model bodies consisting of the same 1%CrMoNiV showed a predictability of acceptable variability considering the complexity of the stresses involved. A further outcome of this project is that the use of SARA appears universally suitable for the construction of new plants and in the service area, while the use of ThoMat appears suited for detail optimisation in the development process.

  4. Predicting survival in heart failure case and control subjects by use of fully automated methods for deriving nonlinear and conventional indices of heart rate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, K. K.; Moody, G. B.; Peng, C. K.; Mietus, J. E.; Larson, M. G.; Levy, D.; Goldberger, A. L.

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite much recent interest in quantification of heart rate variability (HRV), the prognostic value of conventional measures of HRV and of newer indices based on nonlinear dynamics is not universally accepted. METHODS AND RESULTS: We have designed algorithms for analyzing ambulatory ECG recordings and measuring HRV without human intervention, using robust methods for obtaining time-domain measures (mean and SD of heart rate), frequency-domain measures (power in the bands of 0.001 to 0.01 Hz [VLF], 0.01 to 0.15 Hz [LF], and 0.15 to 0.5 Hz [HF] and total spectral power [TP] over all three of these bands), and measures based on nonlinear dynamics (approximate entropy [ApEn], a measure of complexity, and detrended fluctuation analysis [DFA], a measure of long-term correlations). The study population consisted of chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) case patients and sex- and age-matched control subjects in the Framingham Heart Study. After exclusion of technically inadequate studies and those with atrial fibrillation, we used these algorithms to study HRV in 2-hour ambulatory ECG recordings of 69 participants (mean age, 71.7+/-8.1 years). By use of separate Cox proportional-hazards models, the conventional measures SD (P.3), were not. In multivariable models, DFA was of borderline predictive significance (P=.06) after adjustment for the diagnosis of CHF and SD. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that HRV analysis of ambulatory ECG recordings based on fully automated methods can have prognostic value in a population-based study and that nonlinear HRV indices may contribute prognostic value to complement traditional HRV measures.

  5. Defense Mechanisms Reported by Patients with Borderline Personality Disorder and Axis II Comparison Subjects Over 16 Years of Prospective Follow-up: Description and Prediction of Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanarini, Mary C.; Frankenburg, Frances R.; Fitzmaurice, Garrett

    2012-01-01

    Objective This study assessed the defensive functioning of 290 borderline patients and compared it to that of 72 patients with other forms of axis II psychopathology over 16 years of prospective follow-up. It also assessed the relationship between time-varying defenses and recovery from borderline personality disorder. Method The Defense Style Questionnaire, a self-report measure with demonstrated criterion validity and internal consistency, was initially administered at study entry. It was readministered at eight contiguous two-year long follow-up periods. Results Borderline patients had significantly lower scores than axis II comparison subjects on one mature defense mechanism (suppression) and significantly higher scores on seven of the other 18 defenses studied. More specifically, borderline patients had significantly higher scores on one neurotic-level defense (undoing), four immature defenses (acting out, emotional hypochondriasis, passive aggression, and projection), and two image-distorting/borderline defenses (projective identification and splitting). In terms of change, borderline patients were found to have had significant improvement on 13 of the 19 defenses studied. More specifically, they had significantly higher scores over time on one mature defense (anticipation) and significantly lower scores on two neurotic defenses (isolation and undoing), all immature defenses, and all image-distorting/borderline defenses except primitive idealization. In addition, four time-varying defense mechanisms were found to predict time-to-recovery: humor, acting out, emotional hypochondriasis, and projection. Conclusions Taken together, the results of this study suggest that the longitudinal defensive functioning of borderline patients is both distinct and improves substantially over time. They also suggest that immature defenses are the best predictors of time-to-recovery. PMID:23223866

  6. The Study on Work Load Calibration by Using Step Test and Ergometer Test Was Carried Out in Order to Find the Best Way 10 Calibrate the Data Measurement and to Predict Human Work Load by Using Heart Rate Data. This Study Was Conducted on Four Male Subjects. But the Data Analysis Has Just Been Done to Three Subjects Due One of the Subject Was Insufficient Performance. the Sport Tester PE3000 Heart Rate Monitor is Used for Measuring the Heart Rate Data Which Will Be Useful for Predicting the Work

    OpenAIRE

    Herodian, Sam; Kastaman, Roni

    1998-01-01

    The study on Work Load Calibration by using Step Test and Ergometer test was carried out in order to find the best way 10 calibrate the data measurement and to predict human work load by using heart rate data. This study was conducted on four male subjects. but the data analysis has just been done to three subjects due one of the subject was insufficient performance. The sport tester PE3000 heart rate monitor is used for measuring the heart rate data which will be useful for predicting the wo...

  7. Cellular Automata Modelling in Predicting the Development of Settlement Areas, A Case Study in The Eastern District of Pontianak Waterfront City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhidayati, E.; Buchori, I.; Mussadun; Fariz, T. R.

    2017-07-01

    Pontianak waterfront city as water-based urban has the potential of water resources, socio-economic, cultural, tourism and riverine settlements. Settlements areas in the eastern district of Pontianak waterfront city is located in the triangle of Kapuas river and Landak river. This study uses quantitative-GIS methods that integrates binary logistic regression and Cellular Automata-Markov models. The data used in this study such as satellite imagery Quickbird 2003, Ikonos 2008 and elevation contour interval 1 meter. This study aims to discover the settlement land use changes in 2003-2014 and to predict the settlements areas in 2020. This study results the accuracy in predicting of changes in settlements areas shows overall accuracy (79.74%) and the highest kappa index (0.55). The prediction results show that settlement areas (481.98 Ha) in 2020 and the increasingly of settlement areas (6.80 Ha/year) in 2014-2020. The development of settlement areas in 2020 shows the highest land expansion in Parit Mayor Village. The results of regression coefficient value (0) of flooding variable, so flooding did not influence to the development of settlement areas in the eastern district of Pontianak because the building’s adaptation of rumah panggung’s settlements was very good which have adjusted to the height of tidal flood.

  8. COSMO-DE-EPS - construction, diagnoses and verification of a limited-area ensemble prediction system on the convective scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulat, M.; Theis, S.; Gebhardt, C.; Ben Bouallegue, Z.; Buchhold, M.; Ohl, R.

    2009-09-01

    Aiming to improve the very short-range forecast of severe weather triggered by deep moist convection and interaction with small-scale topography, DWD has developed the convection-permitting limited-area model COSMO-DE. This model has a horizontal grid-spacing of 2.8 km, covers the area of Germany and is in operational mode since April 2007. To properly take into account the limited predictability of processes on this small spatial scale, the DWD project COSMO-DE-EPS is developing an ensemble prediction system based on COSMO-DE. The project aims to quantify forecast uncertainty and to support the beneficial use of COSMO-DE forecasts in warning and decision-making processes. Project activities comprise the generation, diagnoses, verification, statistical postprocessing and visualization of ensemble forecasts. A pre-operational mode is foreseen to start in the beginning of 2010 with an approximate number of 20 members differing in physics parameters, lateral boundary conditions, and initial conditions. Operational implementation with about 40 members is envisaged to start in 2011. The ensemble perturbation strategy focuses on model physics, lateral boundary conditions, and initial conditions. Model physics is perturbed by altering distinct parameters of the physical parameterization schemes either individually or in combination. Lateral boundary conditions are perturbed by nesting the COSMO-DE-EPS members into members of the COSMO-SREPS (ARPA-SIM, Bologna) which itself is a nested EPS with a grid-spacing of 10 km. Thus, the COSMO-DE-EPS represents the small-scale end of an ensemble chain which transfers uncertainty from large scales down to the convective scale. The development of initial condition perturbations is in its early stages. As a first approach modification of data assimilation parameters and insertion of analysis increments calculated from differences between COSMO-SREPS and control are being tested. The quality of the current and further developed

  9. Simulating Virtual Terminal Area Weather Data Bases for Use in the Wake Vortex Avoidance System (Wake VAS) Prediction Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Michael L.; Lin, Yuh-Lang

    2004-01-01

    During the research project, sounding datasets were generated for the region surrounding 9 major airports, including Dallas, TX, Boston, MA, New York, NY, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, Atlanta, GA, Miami, FL, San Francico, CA, and Los Angeles, CA. The numerical simulation of winter and summer environments during which no instrument flight rule impact was occurring at these 9 terminals was performed using the most contemporary version of the Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS) model nested from 36 km to 6 km to 1 km horizontal resolution and very detailed vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer. The soundings from the 1 km model were archived at 30 minute time intervals for a 24 hour period and the vertical dependent variables as well as derived quantities, i.e., 3-dimensional wind components, temperatures, pressures, mixing ratios, turbulence kinetic energy and eddy dissipation rates were then interpolated to 5 m vertical resolution up to 1000 m elevation above ground level. After partial validation against field experiment datasets for Dallas as well as larger scale and much coarser resolution observations at the other 8 airports, these sounding datasets were sent to NASA for use in the Virtual Air Space and Modeling program. The application of these datasets being to determine representative airport weather environments to diagnose the response of simulated wake vortices to realistic atmospheric environments. These virtual datasets are based on large scale observed atmospheric initial conditions that are dynamically interpolated in space and time. The 1 km nested-grid simulated datasets providing a very coarse and highly smoothed representation of airport environment meteorological conditions. Details concerning the airport surface forcing are virtually absent from these simulated datasets although the observed background atmospheric processes have been compared to the simulated fields and the fields were found to accurately replicate the flows

  10. Coupling of Markov chains and cellular automata spatial models to predict land cover changes (case study: upper Ci Leungsi catchment area)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marko, K.; Zulkarnain, F.; Kusratmoko, E.

    2016-11-01

    Land cover changes particular in urban catchment area has been rapidly occur. Land cover changes occur as a result of increasing demand for built-up area. Various kinds of environmental and hydrological problems e.g. floods and urban heat island can happen if the changes are uncontrolled. This study aims to predict land cover changes using coupling of Markov chains and cellular automata. One of the most rapid land cover changes is occurs at upper Ci Leungsi catchment area that located near Bekasi City and Jakarta Metropolitan Area. Markov chains has a good ability to predict the probability of change statistically while cellular automata believed as a powerful method in reading the spatial patterns of change. Temporal land cover data was obtained by remote sensing satellite imageries. In addition, this study also used multi-criteria analysis to determine which driving factor that could stimulate the changes such as proximity, elevation, and slope. Coupling of these two methods could give better prediction model rather than just using it separately. The prediction model was validated using existing 2015 land cover data and shown a satisfactory kappa coefficient. The most significant increasing land cover is built-up area from 24% to 53%.

  11. A Structural Equation Model Analyzing the Relationship of Student Achievement Motivations and Personality Factors in a Range of Academic Subject-Matter Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tempelaar, Dirk T.; Gijselaers, Wim H.; Schim van der Loeff, Sybrand; Nijhuis, Jan F. H.

    2007-01-01

    The question of subject-specificity of achievement motivations is important, both for educational psychology, as well as for educational policy. This study contributes to the investigation of the heterogeneity in achievement motivations in the context of the expectancy-value model. Whereas existing research deals with middle and high school…

  12. Masticatory and cervical muscle tenderness and pain sensitivity in a remote area in subjects with a temporomandibular disorder and neck disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silveira, Anelise; Armijo-Olivo, Susan; Gadotti, Inae C; Magee, David

    2014-01-01

    To compare the masticatory and cervical muscle tenderness and pain sensitivity in the hand (remote region) between patients with temporomandibular disorders (TMD) and healthy controls. Twenty female subjects were diagnosed with chronic TMD, and 20 were considered healthy. Subjects completed the Neck Disability Index and Limitations of Daily Functions in a TMD questionnaire. Tenderness of the masticatory and cervical muscles and pain sensitivity in the hand were measured using an algometer. Three-way mixed analysis of variance (ANOVA) evaluated differences in muscle tenderness between groups. One-way ANOVA compared pain sensitivity in the hand between groups. Effect sizes were assessed using Cohen guidelines. Significantly increased masticatory and cervical muscle tenderness and pain sensitivity in the hand were found in subjects with TMD when compared with healthy subjects. Moderate to high effect sizes showed the clinical relevance of the findings. The results of this study have highlighted the importance of assessing TMD patients not only in the craniofacial region but also in the neck and other parts of the body. Future studies should focus on testing the effectiveness of treatments addressing the neck and the pain sensitivity in the hand in patients with TMD.

  13. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arizzi, Anna, E-mail: anna.arizzi@ouce.ox.ac.uk [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Viles, Heather [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Martín-Sanchez, Inés [Departamento de Microbiología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain); Cultrone, Giuseppe [Departamento de Mineralogía y Petrología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain)

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders

  14. Lower carotid intima media thickness is predicted by higher serum bilirubin in both non-diabetic and Type 2 diabetic subjects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dullaart, Robin P. F.; Kappelle, Paul J.W.H.; de Vries, Rindert

    2012-01-01

    Background: Higher serum bilirubin levels may be implicated cardiovascular protection. It is unknown whether the impact of serum bilirubin on carotid artery intima media thickness (IMT), a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis, is different in diabetic subjects compared to non-diabetic subjects. We

  15. Predicting live and dead tree basal area of bark beetle affected forests from discrete-return lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin C. Bright; Andrew T. Hudak; Robert McGaughey; Hans-Erik Andersen; Jose Negron

    2013-01-01

    Bark beetle outbreaks have killed large numbers of trees across North America in recent years. Lidar remote sensing can be used to effectively estimate forest biomass, but prediction of both live and dead standing biomass in beetle-affected forests using lidar alone has not been demonstrated. We developed Random Forest (RF) models predicting total, live, dead, and...

  16. Applicability of a Single Time Point Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Concentration Curve of Linezolid in Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-01-01

    models displayed excellent correlation, with r values of >0.9760. However, linezolid AUC values were predicted to be within the narrower boundary of 0.76 to 1.5-fold by a higher percentage by the Ctrough (78.3 %) versus Cmax model (48.2 %). The Ctrough model showed superior correlation of predicted...

  17. Immediate Effects of Combining Local Techniques in the Craniomandibular Area and Hamstring Muscle Stretching in Subjects with Temporomandibular Disorders: A Randomized Controlled Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Blanco, Cleofás; Cocera-Morata, Francisco Miguel; Heredia-Rizo, Alberto Marcos; Ricard, François; Almazán-Campos, Ginés; Oliva-Pascual-Vaca, Ángel

    2015-08-01

    To assess the immediate effects on vertical mouth opening, orofacial mechanosensitivity, and lumbar and suboccipital mobility after adding a myofascial induction technique to a multimodal protocol in subjects with temporomandibular disorders (TMD). A randomized and double-blind controlled trial was carried out. University-based physical therapy research clinic. Sixty subjects (35±11.22 years) with TMD, and restricted mobility of the mandibular condyles and the first cervical vertebrae, were recruited and randomized to either a control group (CG) (n=30) or an experimental group (EG) (n=30). The CG underwent a neuromuscular technique over the masseter muscles and passive hamstring muscle stretching. A suboccipital muscle inhibition technique was added to this protocol in the EG. Primary measurements were made of vertical mouth opening and pressure pain threshold of the masseter muscles. Secondary outcome measures included pressure algometry of the trigeminal nerve, suboccipital range of motion, and lumbar spine mobility, assessed with the sit-and-reach (SAR) test and lumbar forward bending. All evaluations were collected at baseline and immediately after intervention. In the intragroup comparison, the EG observed an increase in suboccipital flexion (p0.05). The inclusion of a myofascial induction maneuver in a protocol combining local (neuromuscular treatment) and distal techniques (hamstring stretching) in subjects with TMD has no impact on improving mouth opening, suboccipital and lumbar mobility, and orofacial sensitivity to mechanical pressure.

  18. A comparison of human jaw muscle cross-sectional area and volume in long- and short-face subjects, using MRI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boom, H.P.W.; van Spronsen, P.H.; van Ginkel, F.C.; van Schijndel, R.A.; Castelijns, J.A.; Tuinzing, D.B.

    2008-01-01

    Objective In humans, the vertical craniofacial dimensions vary significantly with the size of the jaw muscles, which are regarded as important controlling factors of craniofacial growth. The functional relevance of the maximum cross-sectional area (CSA), indicating maximum muscle strength, is

  19. A comparison of human jaw muscle cross-sectional area and volume in long- and short-face subjects, using MRI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Spronsena, P. H.; van Ginkel, F. C.; van Schijndel, R. A.; Castelijns, J. A.; Tuinzing, D. B.

    Objective: In humans, the vertical craniofacial dimensions vary significantly with the size of the jaw muscles, which are regarded as important controlling factors of craniofacial growth. The functional relevance of the maximum cross-sectional area (CSA), indicating maximum muscle strength, is

  20. A comparison of human jaw muscle cross-sectional area and volume in long- and short-face subjects, using MRI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boom, H.P.; van Spronsen, P.H.; van Ginkel, F.C.; van Schijndel, R.A.; Castelijns, J.A.; Tuinzing, D.B.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: In humans, the vertical craniofacial dimensions vary significantly with the size of the jaw muscles, which are regarded as important controlling factors of craniofacial growth. The functional relevance of the maximum cross-sectional area (CSA), indicating maximum muscle strength, is

  1. Ultrasound screening for asymptomatic carotid stenosis in subjects with calcifications in the area of the carotid arteries on panoramic radiographs: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karp Kjell

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Directed ultrasonic screening for carotid stenosis is cost-effective in populations with > 5% prevalence of the diagnosis. Occasionally, calcifications in the area of the carotid arteries are incidentally detected on odontological panoramic radiographs. We aimed to determine if directed screening for carotid stenosis with ultrasound is indicated in individuals with such calcifications. Methods This was a cross-sectional study. Carotid ultrasound examinations were performed on consecutive persons, with findings of calcifications in the area of the carotid arteries on panoramic radiography that were otherwise eligible for asymptomatic carotid endarterectomy. Results Calcification in the area of the carotid arteries was seen in 176 of 1182 persons undergoing panoramic radiography. Of these, 117 fulfilled the inclusion criterion and were examined with carotid ultrasound. Eight persons (6.8%; 95% CI 2.2-11.5% had a carotid stenosis - not significant over the 5% pre-specified threshold (p = 0.232, Binomial test. However, there was a significant sex difference (p = 0.008, as all stenoses were found in men. Among men, 12.5% (95%CI 4.2-20.8% had carotid stenosis - significantly over the 5% pre-specified threshold (p = 0.014, Binomial test. Conclusions The incidental finding of calcification in the area of the carotid arteries on panoramic radiographs should be followed up with carotid screening in men that are otherwise eligible for asymptomatic carotid endarterectomy. Trial Registration The study was registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov; NCT00514644

  2. Teenagers' Significant Experiences in Areas of Arts: A Study of the Subjectively Felt Impact and Some Qualitative Aspects of Experiences Involving Productive Arts Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finnas, Leif

    2012-01-01

    As a part of a larger project, this study focused primarily on Finland-Swedish ninth-graders' "productive" arts experiences (involving music-making, acting, writing, painting/drawing, dancing), as these had been reported when the pupils had been asked to write down descriptions of "strong" experiences in arts areas (music,…

  3. The metabolic responses induced by acute dexamethasone predict glucose tolerance and insulin secretion over 10 years in relatives of type 2 diabetic subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durck, Tina Trier; Henriksen, Jan Erik; Egede, Mette Brogaard

    2013-01-01

    This study aimed to compare the metabolic and insulin secretory responses to dexamethasone with the metabolic responses observed at 10 years in normoglycaemic relatives of type 2 diabetic and healthy control subjects.......This study aimed to compare the metabolic and insulin secretory responses to dexamethasone with the metabolic responses observed at 10 years in normoglycaemic relatives of type 2 diabetic and healthy control subjects....

  4. Subjective and nystagmus reactions considered in relation to models of vestibular function. [dynamic models for prediction human physiological reactions to angular accelerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guedry, F. E., Jr.; Gilson, R. D.; Stockwell, C. W.

    1973-01-01

    Modelling will become increasingly important as more knowledge is accumulated, because it offers advantages in predicting reactions of individuals in a variety of situations, including novel aerospace environments, and in specifying a few parameters which should have considerable clinical significance. However, the need for continuing experimental crosschecks of these models has been illustrated by several sets of results which would not have been predicted by any existing models.

  5. Habitual emotion regulation strategies and depressive symptoms in healthy subjects predict fMRI brain activation patterns related to major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abler, Birgit; Hofer, Christian; Walter, Henrik; Erk, Susanne; Hoffmann, Holger; Traue, Harald C; Kessler, Henrik

    2010-08-30

    The response-focused emotion regulation style 'Expressive suppression' has been associated with symptoms of lower psychological well-being and increased function magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) activation of the sublenticular extended amygdala (SLEA) in patients with major depression. Extending prior studies on active emotion regulation, we were interested in effects of habitual emotion regulation on neurobiology. Thirty subjects with either relatively high or low suppression scores as assessed with the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire without symptoms of clinical depression participated in the study. They were instructed to expect and then perceive emotionally unpleasant, pleasant or neutral stimuli selected from the International Affective Picture System that were announced by a congruent cue during fMRI. In the subjects with high suppression scores, decreased activation of the orbital medial prefrontal cortex (oMFC) when expecting negative pictures and increased activation of the SLEA upon presentation of neutral stimuli were found. Subclinical depression ratings independently of suppression scores in the healthy subjects were positively correlated with brain activation in the SLEA when expecting negative pictures. SLEA hyperactivity may represent an emotional responsivity that involves less successful habitual emotion regulation and a tendency to depressed mood in healthy subjects, as shown in patients with major depression. Decreased anticipatory oMFC activation may parallel a lack of antecedent emotion regulation in subjects with high suppression scores, representing another neurobiological predictor of lower mental well-being. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Combining Amplitude Spectrum Area with Previous Shock Information Using Neural Networks Improves Prediction Performance of Defibrillation Outcome for Subsequent Shocks in Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Mi; Lu, Yubao; Zhang, Lei; Zhang, Hehua; Gong, Yushun; Li, Yongqin

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative ventricular fibrillation (VF) waveform analysis is a potentially powerful tool to optimize defibrillation. However, whether combining VF features with additional attributes that related to the previous shock could enhance the prediction performance for subsequent shocks is still uncertain. A total of 528 defibrillation shocks from 199 patients experienced out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were analyzed in this study. VF waveform was quantified using amplitude spectrum area (AMSA) from defibrillator's ECG recordings prior to each shock. Combinations of AMSA with previous shock index (PSI) or/and change of AMSA (ΔAMSA) between successive shocks were exercised through a training dataset including 255shocks from 99patientswith neural networks. Performance of the combination methods were compared with AMSA based single feature prediction by area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC), sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and prediction accuracy (PA) through a validation dataset that was consisted of 273 shocks from 100patients. A total of61 (61.0%) patients required subsequent shocks (N = 173) in the validation dataset. Combining AMSA with PSI and ΔAMSA obtained highest AUC (0.904 vs. 0.819, pdefibrillation outcome for subsequent shocks.

  7. Expanding subjectivities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundgaard Andersen, Linda; Soldz, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    A major theme in recent psychoanalytic thinking concerns the use of therapist subjectivity, especially “countertransference,” in understanding patients. This thinking converges with and expands developments in qualitative research regarding the use of researcher subjectivity as a tool to understa...

  8. Ratio of ovarian stroma and total ovarian area by ultrasound in prediction of hyperandrogenemia in reproductive-aged Thai women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a diagnostic test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leerasiri, Pichai; Wongwananuruk, Thanyarat; Rattanachaiyanont, Manee; Indhavivadhana, Suchada; Techatraisak, Kitirat; Angsuwathana, Surasak

    2015-02-01

    To evaluate the performance of ovarian stromal area to total ovarian area (S/A) ratio for the prediction of biochemical hyperandrogenism in Thai women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A cross-sectional study was performed in 222 reproductive-aged Thai women with PCOS attending the Gynecologic Endocrinology Unit (GEU), Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital from May 2007 to January 2009. The patients were interviewed for medical history and examined for anthropometry and clinical hyperandrogenism. Venous blood samples were obtained for androgen profiles. An ovarian ultrasonogram was obtained via transvaginal or transrectal ultrasonography. The prevalences of clinical and biochemical hyperandrogenism were 48.6% and 81.1%, respectively. The S/A ratio at a cut-off point of 0.33 had modest predictability for hyperandrogenism, namely, 0.537 area under the receiver-operator curve, 36.6% sensitivity, 72.1% specificity, 83.8% positive predictive value (PPV) and 20.9% negative predictive value (NPV). The combination of clinical hyperandrogenism and S/A ratio improved the predictability for biochemical hyperandrogenism, with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 72.1%, 58.1%, 87.8% and 33.3%, respectively. The S/A ratio alone is not a good predictor for biochemical hyperandrogenism in Thai PCOS women attending GEU for menstrual dysfunction. The combination of S/A ratio and clinical hyperandrogenism has better performance than the S/A ratio alone to predict biochemical hyperandrogenism. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2014 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  9. Prediction of Soil pH Hyperspectral Spectrum in Guanzhong Area of Shaanxi Province Based on PLS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jinbao; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Huanyuan; Cheng, Jie; Tong, Wei; Wei, Jing

    2017-12-01

    The soil pH of Fufeng County, Yangling County and Wugong County in Shaanxi Province was studied. The spectral reflectance was measured by ASD Field Spec HR portable terrain spectrum, and its spectral characteristics were analyzed. The first deviation of the original spectral reflectance of the soil, the second deviation, the logarithm of the reciprocal logarithm, the first order differential of the reciprocal logarithm and the second order differential of the reciprocal logarithm were used to establish the soil pH Spectral prediction model. The results showed that the correlation between the reflectance spectra after SNV pre-treatment and the soil pH was significantly improved. The optimal prediction model of soil pH established by partial least squares method was a prediction model based on the first order differential of the reciprocal logarithm of spectral reflectance. The principal component factor was 10, the decision coefficient Rc2 = 0.9959, the model root means square error RMSEC = 0.0076, the correction deviation SEC = 0.0077; the verification decision coefficient Rv2 = 0.9893, the predicted root mean square error RMSEP = 0.0157, The deviation of SEP = 0.0160, the model was stable, the fitting ability and the prediction ability were high, and the soil pH can be measured quickly.

  10. Severity of anxiety symptoms reported by borderline patients and Axis II comparison subjects: description and prediction over 16 years of prospective follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanarini, Mary C; Frankenburg, Frances R; Fitzmaurice, Garrett M

    2014-12-01

    The first purpose of this study was to determine the severity of anxiety symptoms reported by borderline patients and Axis II comparison subjects over 16 years of follow-up. The second purpose was to determine the most salient predictors of the severity of anxiety symptoms of borderline patients. Initially, 290 borderline inpatients and 72 comparison subjects were assessed using measures of anxiety, childhood adversity, and normal personality. The severity of anxiety symptoms was reassessed every 2 years. Borderline patients reported approximately twice as severe symptoms of anxiety as comparison subjects. However, these symptoms decreased significantly over time for those in both groups. Among borderline patients, two variables were found to be significant multivariate predictors of severity of overall anxiety: nonsexual childhood abuse and trait neuroticism. The results of this study suggest that anxiety symptoms form a distinct profile for borderline patients-a profile related to both childhood adversity and a vulnerable temperament.

  11. The role of ground reference data collection in the prediction of stem volume with LiDAR data in mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalponte, Michele; Martinez, Cristina; Rodeghiero, Mirco; Gianelle, Damiano

    2011-11-01

    Ground reference data collection represents an important element in the prediction of stem volume with LiDAR-derived variables, and at present it is the most expensive part of such analyses. In this paper two aspects of ground reference data collection were analyzed: (1) the positioning error of the ground plots; and (2) the optimal number of training plots. A system for the prediction of stem volume at area-based level was adopted. LiDAR data were preprocessed and 13 variables describing both height and coverage were extracted. Models were defined using a stepwise ordinary least square (OLS) regression. Three experiments were conducted: (i) the role of the plots positioning error on prediction accuracy; (ii) the influence of random downsampling of plot numbers on prediction accuracy; and (iii) the influence of a stratified downsampling of plot numbers on prediction accuracy based on LiDAR-derived variables. A dataset comprising 799 ground plots was used. They were distributed throughout a mountainous area in the Southern Alps, where the presence of a complex landscape increases the uncertainty of the Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy, and where a large variety of tree forest species and climatic environments make it necessary to have a large number of sample plots for accurate characterization of the study area. All the experiments provided important indications for LiDAR based forest inventories: the GPS error did not significantly influence the prediction accuracy and it was possible to reduce the number of training samples without compromising the generalization ability of the prediction model. Leading on from these findings, a new ground sampling protocol based on genetic algorithms was proposed. The new protocol allowed us to obtain promising results for the considered dataset: using only 53 training plots, instead of 534 in the original dataset, we obtained the same results for the validation set. These results, obtained in a complex mountainous area

  12. Combining Amplitude Spectrum Area with Previous Shock Information Using Neural Networks Improves Prediction Performance of Defibrillation Outcome for Subsequent Shocks in Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mi He

    Full Text Available Quantitative ventricular fibrillation (VF waveform analysis is a potentially powerful tool to optimize defibrillation. However, whether combining VF features with additional attributes that related to the previous shock could enhance the prediction performance for subsequent shocks is still uncertain.A total of 528 defibrillation shocks from 199 patients experienced out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were analyzed in this study. VF waveform was quantified using amplitude spectrum area (AMSA from defibrillator's ECG recordings prior to each shock. Combinations of AMSA with previous shock index (PSI or/and change of AMSA (ΔAMSA between successive shocks were exercised through a training dataset including 255shocks from 99patientswith neural networks. Performance of the combination methods were compared with AMSA based single feature prediction by area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC, sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV, negative predictive value (NPV and prediction accuracy (PA through a validation dataset that was consisted of 273 shocks from 100patients.A total of61 (61.0% patients required subsequent shocks (N = 173 in the validation dataset. Combining AMSA with PSI and ΔAMSA obtained highest AUC (0.904 vs. 0.819, p<0.001 among different combination approaches for subsequent shocks. Sensitivity (76.5% vs. 35.3%, p<0.001, NPV (90.2% vs. 76.9%, p = 0.007 and PA (86.1% vs. 74.0%, p = 0.005were greatly improved compared with AMSA based single feature prediction with a threshold of 90% specificity.In this retrospective study, combining AMSA with previous shock information using neural networks greatly improves prediction performance of defibrillation outcome for subsequent shocks.

  13. Subject Index

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Peter A. Gilman), 29. Prediction of Peaks in Wolf Numbers in Cycle 24 according to Actual Numbers of. Polar Faculae (D. K. Callebaut & V. V. Makarova), 69. Prospects for Predicting Cycle 24 (Arnab Rai Choudhuri), 41. Solar Astronomy. Keynote Address: Outstanding Problems in Solar Physics (Markus J. Aschwanden), 3.

  14. Psychosocial working conditions, school sense of coherence and subjective health complaints. A multilevel analysis of ninth grade pupils in the Stockholm area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modin, Bitte; Ostberg, Viveca; Toivanen, Susanna; Sundell, Knut

    2011-02-01

    This study explores the psychosocial working conditions of 7930 Swedish 9th grade students, distributed over 475 classes and 130 schools, in relation to their subjective health using multilevel modeling. At the individual level, students with "strained" working conditions in school (i.e. those experiencing a high level of demands in combination with a low level of control) demonstrated significantly worse health compared to students in "low-strain" situations. "Strained" conditions in combination with a weak school-related sense of coherence were especially unfavourable for health. These findings remained significant when support from teachers, school marks, norm-breaking behaviours, family-relations and certain class- and school-contextual conditions were adjusted for. Thus, while demands are an essential part of school work, this study suggests that high levels of control and a strong school-related sense of coherence can protect against the more detrimental effects on health that high demands at school may cause. Copyright © 2010 The Association for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Predicting Homework Motivation and Homework Effort in Six School Subjects: The Role of Person and Family Characteristics, Classroom Factors, and School Track

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautwein, Ulrich; Ludtke, Oliver

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the determinants of homework motivation and homework effort in six school subjects at three levels: student level, classroom level, and school level. We hypothesized that several factors--including stable personality characteristics such as gender and conscientiousness, students' domain-specific homework motivation, and…

  16. Predictive value of fever and palmar pallor for P. falciparum parasitaemia in children from an endemic area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof David Vinnemeier

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Although the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa is reported to decline and other conditions, causing similar symptoms as clinical malaria are gaining in relevance, presumptive anti-malarial treatment is still common. This study traced for age-dependent signs and symptoms predictive for P. falciparum parasitaemia. METHODS: In total, 5447 visits of 3641 patients between 2-60 months of age who attended an outpatient department (OPD of a rural hospital in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, were analysed. All Children were examined by a paediatrician and a full blood count and thick smear were done. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART model was used to generate a clinical decision tree to predict malarial parasitaemia a7nd predictive values of all symptoms were calculated. RESULTS: Malarial parasitaemia was detected in children between 2-12 months and between 12-60 months of age with a prevalence of 13.8% and 30.6%, respectively. The CART-model revealed age-dependent differences in the ability of the variables to predict parasitaemia. While palmar pallor was the most important symptom in children between 2-12 months, a report of fever and an elevated body temperature of ≥37.5°C gained in relevance in children between 12-60 months. The variable palmar pallor was significantly (p<0.001 associated with lower haemoglobin levels in children of all ages. Compared to the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI algorithm the CART-model had much lower sensitivities, but higher specificities and positive predictive values for a malarial parasitaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Use of age-derived algorithms increases the specificity of the prediction for P. falciparum parasitaemia. The predictive value of palmar pallor should be underlined in health worker training. Due to a lack of sensitivity neither the best algorithm nor palmar pallor as a single sign are eligible for decision-making and cannot replace

  17. Prediction of RF-EMF exposure levels in large outdoor areas through car-mounted measurements on the enveloping roads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Sam; Joseph, Wout; Maslanyj, Myron; Addison, Darren; Mee, Terry; Colussi, Loek; Kamer, Jos; Bolte, John

    2016-09-01

    Knowledge of spatial and temporal trends in the environmental exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) is a key prerequisite for RF-EMF risk assessment studies attempting to establish a link between RF-EMF and potential effects on human health as well as on fauna and flora. In this paper, we determined the validity of RF exposure modelling based on inner-area kriging interpolation of measurements on the surrounding streets. The results vary depending on area size and shape and structural factors; a Spearman coefficient of 0.8 and a relative error of less than 3.5dB are achieved on a data set featuring a closed measurement ring around a decently sized area (1km(2), with an average minimum distance of the encircled area to the ring of less than 100m), containing mainly low, detached buildings. In larger areas, additional inner-area sampling is advised, lowering the average minimum distance between sampled and interpolated locations to 100m, to achieve the same level of accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Metabolomics and partial least square discriminant analysis to predict history of myocardial infarction of self-claimed healthy subjects: validity and feasibility for clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Nornazliya; Ismet, Rose Iszati; Rofiee, MohdSalleh; Bannur, Zakaria; Hennessy, Thomas; Selvaraj, Manikandan; Ahmad, Aminuddin; Nor, FadzilahMohd; Abdul Rahman, ThuhairahHasrah; Md Isa, Kamarudzaman; Ismail, AdzroolIdzwan; Teh, Lay Kek; Salleh, Mohd Zaki

    2015-01-01

    The dynamics of metabolomics in establishing a prediction model using partial least square discriminant analysis have enabled better disease diagnosis; with emphasis on early detection of diseases. We attempted to translate the metabolomics model to predict the health status of the Orang Asli community whom we have little information. The metabolite expressions of the healthy vs. diseased patients (cardiovascular) were compared. A metabotype model was developed and validated using partial least square discriminant analysis (PLSDA). Cardiovascular risks of the Orang Asli were predicted and confirmed by biochemistry profiles conducted concurrently. Fourteen (14) metabolites were determined as potential biomarkers for cardiovascular risks with receiver operating characteristic of more than 0.7. They include 15S-HETE (AUC = 0.997) and phosphorylcholine (AUC = 0.995). Seven Orang Asli were clustered with the patients' group and may have ongoing cardiovascular risks and problems. This is supported by biochemistry tests results that showed abnormalities in cholesterol, triglyceride, HDL and LDL levels. The disease prediction model based on metabolites is a useful diagnostic alternative as compared to the current single biomarker assays. The former is believed to be more cost effective since a single sample run is able to provide a more comprehensive disease profile, whilst the latter require different types of sampling tubes and blood volumes.

  19. Assessment of state-of-the-art models for predicting the remobilisation of radionuclides following the flooding of heavily contaminated areas: the case of Pripyat River floodplain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monte, Luigi [ENEA CR Casaccia, via P. Anguillarese, 301 cp 2400, 00100 Rome (Italy)]. E-mail: monte@casaccia.enea.it; Perianez, Raul [Departamento Fisica Aplicada, University of Sevilla (Spain); Kivva, Sergey [Institute of Mathematical Machines and System Problems (Ukraine); Laptev, Gennady [Ukrainian Institute for Hydrometeorology (Ukraine); Angeli, Giacomo [ENEA CR Casaccia, via P. Anguillarese, 301 cp 2400, 00100 Rome (Italy); Barros, Haydn [Departamento Fisica Aplicada, University of Sevilla (Spain); Zheleznyak, Mark [Institute of Mathematical Machines and System Problems (Ukraine)

    2006-07-01

    The performances of models are assessed to predict the wash-off of radionuclides from contaminated flooded areas. This process should be accounted for in the proper management of the aftermath of a nuclear accident. The contamination of the Pripyat River water following the inundation of a floodplain heavily contaminated by {sup 9}Sr and {sup 137}Cs of Chernobyl origin is used as the basis for modelling. The available experimental evidence demonstrated that remobilisation of radiostrontium is an important process implying a significant secondary radioactive load of water flowing over the contaminated floodplain. On the contrary, there is no empirical evidence of a similar behaviour for radiocaesium. In general, state-of-the-art models properly predicted the remobilisation of strontium, whereas they significantly overestimated radiocaesium concentrations in water. The necessary model improvements for a more accurate prediction of radiocaesium contamination levels include a reassessment of the values of the model parameters controlling the remobilisation process.

  20. Validation of a mapping and prediction model for human fasciolosis transmission in Andean very high altitude endemic areas using remote sensing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, M V; Malone, J B; Mas-Coma, S

    2001-04-27

    The present paper aims to validate the usefulness of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained by satellite remote sensing for the development of local maps of risk and for prediction of human fasciolosis in the Northern Bolivian Altiplano. The endemic area, which is located at very high altitudes (3800-4100 m) between Lake Titicaca and the valley of the city of La Paz, presents the highest prevalences and intensities of fasciolosis known in humans. NDVI images of 1.1 km resolution from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) series of environmental satellites appear to provide adequate information for a study area such as that of the Northern Bolivian Altiplano. The predictive value of the remotely sensed map based on NDVI data appears to be better than that from forecast indices based only on climatic data. A close correspondence was observed between real ranges of human fasciolosis prevalence at 13 localities of known prevalence rates and the predicted ranges of fasciolosis prevalence using NDVI maps. However, results based on NDVI map data predicted zones as risk areas where, in fact, field studies have demonstrated the absence of lymnaeid populations during snail surveys, corroborated by the absence of the parasite in humans and livestock. NDVI data maps represent a useful data component in long-term efforts to develop a comprehensive geographical information system control program model that accurately fits real epidemiological and transmission situations of human fasciolosis in high altitude endemic areas in Andean countries.

  1. [Relationship between the prediction of the opening angle and the increased value of cross-sectional area in single open-door laminoplasty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chao-Lu; Jiang, Guo-Qiang; Lu, Bin; Luo, Ke-Feng; Yue, Bing; Lu, Ji-Ye

    2017-02-25

    To evolve the formula of relationship between opening angle of laminoplasty and the increased value of cross-sectional area, and to predict the opening angle according to the opening size of lanminoplasty. From January 2013 to December 2015, 26 patients underwent single open-door laminoplasty in C₃-C₇. Among them, 10 patients with ossification of posterior longitudinal ligament, there were 6 males and 4 females, aged from 39 to 58 years old with an average of 49.2 years; and 16 patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy, there were 10 males and 6 females, aged from 40 to 58 years old with an average of 50.2 years. Through the changes of spinal canal shape between preoperation and postoperation to set up the regular geometric model, and to deduce the formula of the relationship between the opening angle of laminoplasty and the increased value of cross-sectional area, and predict the formula of opening angle. According to the preoperative and postoperative CT scan, the needed parameters were measured, and were substituted in the above formula to get the change of cross-sectional area before and after operation, predicting the opening angle of laminoplasty. The differences between the change of cross-sectional area before and after operation, predictive the opening angle of laminoplasty and practical measured data were analyzed by statistical methods, thus to verify the feasibility of formula in practical application. All imaging data of 26 patients were obtained. There were significant differences in changes of cross-sectional areas in every patients (laminoplasty in C₃ to C₇) before and after operation in the same segment( P angle increasing. There was no significant difference between the opening angle attained by formula and the data measured by software in the same segment( P >0.05). Increment of cross-sectional areas following C₃-C₇ laminoplasty can be accurately attained and the opening angle can also be predicted by a certain formula, which can

  2. Alcohol Levels Do Not Accurately Predict Physical or Mental Impairment in Ethanol-Tolerant Subjects: Relevance to Emergency Medicine and Dram Shop Laws

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, James R.; Dollard, Denis

    2010-01-01

    The human body and the central nervous system can develop tremendous tolerance to ethanol. Mental and physical dysfunctions from ethanol, in an alcohol-tolerant individual, do not consistently correlate with ethanol levels traditionally used to define intoxication, or even lethality, in a nontolerant subject. Attempting to relate observed signs of alcohol intoxication or impairment, or to evaluate sobriety, by quantifying blood alcohol levels can be misleading, if not impossible. We report a ...

  3. Developing a Topographic Model to Predict the Northern Hardwood Forest Type within Carolina Northern Flying Squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus Recovery Areas of the Southern Appalachians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Evans

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The northern hardwood forest type is an important habitat component for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus for den sites and corridor habitats between boreo-montane conifer patches foraging areas. Our study related terrain data to presence of northern hardwood forest type in the recovery areas of CNFS in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwestern Virginia. We recorded overstory species composition and terrain variables at 338 points, to construct a robust, spatially predictive model. Terrain variables analyzed included elevation, aspect, slope gradient, site curvature, and topographic exposure. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess seven models based on associations noted in existing literature as well as an inclusive global model. Our results indicate that, on a regional scale, elevation, aspect, and topographic exposure index (TEI are significant predictors of the presence of the northern hardwood forest type in the southern Appalachians. Our elevation + TEI model was the best approximating model (the lowest AICc score for predicting northern hardwood forest type correctly classifying approximately 78% of our sample points. We then used these data to create region-wide predictive maps of the distribution of the northern hardwood forest type within CNFS recovery areas.

  4. Predicting the Location and Spatial Extent of Submerged Coral Reef Habitat in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Tom Bridge; Robin Beaman; Terry Done; Jody Webster

    2012-01-01

    AIM: Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and env...

  5. Predicting the population-level impact of mitigating harbor porpoise bycatch with pingers and time-area fishing closures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Beest, Floris; Kindt-Larsen, Lotte; Bastardie, Francois

    2017-01-01

    efficiency) on the population size using the inner Danish waters as a biological system. The model incorporated empirical data on gillnet fishing effort and noise avoidance behavior by free-ranging harbor porpoises exposed to randomized high-frequency (20- to 160-kHz) pinger signals. The IBM simulations...... and protected marine top predator, involves the use of pingers (acoustic alarms that emit underwater noise) and time-area fishing closures. Although these mitigation measures can reduce harbor porpoise bycatch in gillnet fisheries considerably, inference about the long-term population-level consequences...... revealed a synergistic relationship between the implementation of time-area fishing closures and pinger deployment. Time-area fishing closures reduced bycatch rates substantially but not completely. In contrast, widespread pinger deployment resulted in total mitigation of bycatch but frequent and recurrent...

  6. Predicting the population-level impact of mitigating harbor porpoise bycatch with pingers and time-area fishing closures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Beest, Floris; Kindt-Larsen, Lotte; Bastardie, Francois

    2017-01-01

    and protected marine top predator, involves the use of pingers (acoustic alarms that emit underwater noise) and time-area fishing closures. Although these mitigation measures can reduce harbor porpoise bycatch in gillnet fisheries considerably, inference about the long-term population-level consequences...... is currently lacking. We developed a spatially explicit individual-based simulation model (IBM) with the aim to evaluate the effectiveness of these two bycatch mitigation measures. We quantified both the direct positive effects (i.e. reduced bycatch) as well as any indirect negative effects (i.e. reduced...... simulations revealed a synergistic relationship between the implementation of time-area fishing closures and pinger deployment. Time-area fishing closures reduced bycatch rates substantially but not completely. In contrast, widespread pinger deployment resulted in total mitigation of bycatch but frequent...

  7. Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Wolf (Canis lupus) Breeding Areas in a Mountainous Region of Central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassi, Elena; Willis, Stephen G; Passilongo, Daniela; Mattioli, Luca; Apollonio, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Wolves (Canis lupus) in Italy represent a relict west European population. They are classified as vulnerable by IUCN, though have increased in number and expanded their range in recent decades. Here we use 17 years of monitoring data (from 1993 to 2010) collected in a mountainous region of central Italy (Arezzo, Tuscany) in an ecological niche-based model (MaxEnt) to characterize breeding sites (i.e. the areas where pups were raised) within home ranges, as detected from play-back responses. From a suite of variables related to topography, habitat and human disturbance we found that elevation and distance to protected areas were most important in explaining the locality of wolf responses. Rendezvous sites (family play-back response sites) typically occurred between 800 and 1200 m a.s.l., inside protected areas, and were usually located along mountain chains distant from human settlements and roads. In these areas human disturbance is low and the densities of ungulates are typically high. Over recent years, rendezvous sites have occurred closer to urban areas as the wolf population has continued to expand, despite the consequent human disturbance. This suggests that undisturbed landscapes may be reaching their carrying capacity for wolves. This, in turn, may lead to the potential for increased human-wolf interactions in future. Applying our model, both within and beyond the species' current range, we identify sites both within the current range and also further afield, that the species could occupy in future. Our work underlines the importance of the present protected areas network in facilitating the recolonisation by wolves. Our projections of suitability of sites for future establishment as the population continues to expand could inform planning to minimize future wolf-human conflicts.

  8. Prediction of load threshold of fibre-reinforced laminated composite panels subjected to low velocity drop-weight impact using efficient data filtering techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umar Farooq

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This work is concerned with physical testing of carbon fibrous laminated composite panels with low velocity drop-weight impacts from flat and round nose impactors. Eight, sixteen, and twenty-four ply panels were considered. Non-destructive damage inspections of tested specimens were conducted to approximate impact-induced damage. Recorded data were correlated to load–time, load–deflection, and energy–time history plots to interpret impact induced damage. Data filtering techniques were also applied to the noisy data that unavoidably generate due to limitations of testing and logging systems. Built-in, statistical, and numerical filters effectively predicted load thresholds for eight and sixteen ply laminates. However, flat nose impact of twenty-four ply laminates produced clipped data that can only be de-noised involving oscillatory algorithms. Data filtering and extrapolation of such data have received rare attention in the literature that needs to be investigated. The present work demonstrated filtering and extrapolation of the clipped data using Fast Fourier Convolution algorithm to predict load thresholds. Selected results were compared to the damage zones identified with C-scan and acceptable agreements have been observed. Based on the results it is proposed that use of advanced data filtering and analysis methods to data collected by the available resources has effectively enhanced data interpretations without resorting to additional resources. The methodology could be useful for efficient and reliable data analysis and impact-induced damage prediction of similar cases’ data.

  9. Multiple biomarker responses in Prochilodus lineatus subjected to short-term in situ exposure to streams from agricultural areas in Southern Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vieira, Carlos Eduardo Delfino [Laboratório de Ecofisiologia Animal — Departamento de Ciências Fisiológicas, Universidade Estadual de Londrina, Paraná (Brazil); Costa, Patrícia Gomes [Laboratório de Microcontaminantes Orgânicos e Ecotoxicologia — Instituto de Oceanografia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil); Lunardelli, Bruna; Fernandes de Oliveira, Luciana [Laboratório de Ecofisiologia Animal — Departamento de Ciências Fisiológicas, Universidade Estadual de Londrina, Paraná (Brazil); Costa Cabrera, Liziara da [Laboratório de Análise de Compostos Orgânicos e Metais — Escola de Química e Alimentos, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil); Risso, Wagner Ezequiel [Laboratório de Ecofisiologia Animal — Departamento de Ciências Fisiológicas, Universidade Estadual de Londrina, Paraná (Brazil); Primel, Ednei Gilberto [Laboratório de Análise de Compostos Orgânicos e Metais — Escola de Química e Alimentos, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil); and others

    2016-01-15

    In order to assess the quality of streams susceptible to contamination by pesticides we apply biochemical and genotoxic biomarkers in the Neotropical fish Prochilodus lineatus submitted to in situ tests. Fish were caged, for 96 h, in two streams located in areas with intensive use of pesticides, the Apertados (AP) and the Jacutinga (JC), and in a small stream (Godoy stream — GD) found inside a forest fragment adjacent to a State Park. Biochemical parameters, such as biotransformation enzymes 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) and glutathione-S-transferase (GST), non-protein thiols (NPSH), lipoperoxidation (LPO), protein carbonylation (PCO) and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) were evaluated in various fish organs, as well as genotoxic biomarkers (damage to DNA and occurrence of micronuclei and erythrocyte nuclear abnormalities). Samples of water and sediment were collected for analysis of metals (Cu, Cr, Pb, Ni, Mn, Cd and Zn), organochloride pesticides, and triazine and glyphosate herbicides. We observed an increase in liver GST activity in fish at AP and gill GST activity in fish at JC. An increase in liver LPO was also observed in fish exposed to AP and JC. The same animals also exhibited increased DNA damage and erythrocyte nuclear abnormalities (ENAs) compared to the fish kept in GD. A number of compounds showed concentrations higher than the permitted levels, in particular, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), its metabolites dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (DDD), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCH), heptachloride, diclofluanid and aldrins. These pesticides were detected at higher concentrations in water and sediment samples from AP, followed by JC and GD. The Integrated Biomarker Response Index (IBR) indicated that AP and JC (AP: 21.7 > JC: 18.5 > GD: 12.6) have the worst environmental quality. Integrated biomarker analysis revealed that the alterations observed related well with the levels of environmental contaminants

  10. Hydrogeologic monitoring of the Paraíba do Sul river floodplain area subject to sand mining in the Tremembé municipality, SP, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Getulio Teixeira Batista

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available To characterize the geological, hydrogeological, hydrochemical, and hydrobacterial aspects of the surface and groundwater in the floodplain of the Paraíba do Sul river in Tremembé municipality, the water levels of the Quaternary sedimentary aquifer experimental site was monitored based on four wells and eight associated piezometers with daily measures of water levels in continuous operation since December 3, 2009. In addition, data from a modular weather station in operation since March 2010 and data from the quality of surface water and groundwater have been analyzed in the period between March 2010 and March 2011. The water balance between April 2010 and March 2011 was estimated to verify the periods of water deficiency and excess. Data loggers installed in the piezometers enabled daily groundwater levels monitoring to establish the influence of the Paraíba do Sul river in the water levels of the Quaternary sedimentary aquifer and also they allowed the determination of the water loss to the atmosphere. A hydrogeological model with simplified equations, based on hydraulics parameters obtained in the wells pump tests, was implemented to calculate the amount of daily evapotranspiration and the average distance of the water loss from the wells to the atmosphere. An evaporation rate of 83.4 m3/h from the open-pit sand mine located at 212.2 m and of 89.2 m3/h for the one at 885.0 m average distance from the monitoring wells were observed. Chemical and bacteriological analysis involving multiple parameters were performed in the period from March 2010 to March 2011 in groundwater collected in wells, in the open-pit mines and in the waters of the Paraíba do Sul river. The results allowed to observe the influences of the Paraíba do Sul river as well as the contamination from fertilizers and pesticides from the agriculture practiced in the floodplain area on the quality of the groundwater.

  11. Predictive value of pharmacokinetics-adjusted phenotypic susceptibility on response to ritonavir-enhanced protease inhibitors (PIs) in human immunodeficiency virus-infected subjects failing prior PI therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eron, Joseph J; Park, Jeong-Gun; Haubrich, Richard; Aweeka, Francesca; Bastow, Barbara; Pakes, Gary E; Yu, Song; Wu, Hulin; Richman, Douglas D

    2009-06-01

    The activities of protease inhibitors in vivo may depend on plasma concentrations and viral susceptibility. This nonrandomized, open-label study evaluated the relationship of the inhibitory quotient (IQ [the ratio of drug exposure to viral phenotypic susceptibility]) to the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) viral load (VL) change for ritonavir-enhanced protease inhibitors (PIs). Subjects on PI-based regimens replaced their PIs with ritonavir-enhanced indinavir (IDV/r) 800/200 mg, fosamprenavir (FPV/r) 700/100 mg, or lopinavir (LPV/r) 400/200 mg twice daily. Pharmacokinetics were assessed at day 14; follow-up lasted 24 weeks. Associations between IQ and VL changes were examined. Fifty-three subjects enrolled, 12 on IDV/r, 33 on FPV/r, and 8 on LPV/r. Median changes (n-fold) (FC) of 50% inhibitory concentrations (IC(50)s) to the study PI were high. Median 2-week VL changes were -0.7, -0.1, and -1.0 log(10) for IDV/r, FPV/r, and LPV/r. With FPV/r, correlations between the IQ and the 2-week change in VL were significant (Spearman's r range, -0.39 to -0.50; P PI-experienced subjects with highly resistant HIV-1, short-term VL responses to RTV-enhanced FPV/r correlated best with baseline susceptibility. The IQ improved correlation in analyses of all arms where a greater range of virologic responses was observed.

  12. Predicting the location and spatial extent of submerged coral reef habitat in the Great Barrier Reef world heritage area, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridge, Tom; Beaman, Robin; Done, Terry; Webster, Jody

    2012-01-01

    Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and environmental variables for predicting the location of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef. Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Maximum entropy modelling is used to identify the spatial extent of two broad communities of habitat-forming megabenthos phototrophs and heterotrophs. Models were generated using combinations of geophysical substrate properties derived from multibeam bathymetry and environmental data derived from Bio-ORACLE, combined with georeferenced occurrence records of mesophotic coral communities from autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle and SCUBA surveys. Model results are used to estimate the total amount of mesophotic coral reef habitat on the GBR. Our models predict extensive but previously undocumented coral communities occurring both along the continental shelf-edge of the Great Barrier Reef and also on submerged reefs inside the lagoon. Habitat suitability for phototrophs is highest on submerged reefs along the outer-shelf and the deeper flanks of emergent reefs inside the GBR lagoon, while suitability for heterotrophs is highest in the deep waters along the shelf-edge. Models using only geophysical variables consistently outperformed models incorporating environmental data for both phototrophs and heterotrophs. Extensive submerged coral reef communities that are currently undocumented are likely to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef. High-quality bathymetry data can be used to identify these reefs, which may play an

  13. Predicting the location and spatial extent of submerged coral reef habitat in the Great Barrier Reef world heritage area, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Bridge

    Full Text Available AIM: Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and environmental variables for predicting the location of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef. LOCATION: Great Barrier Reef, Australia. METHODS: Maximum entropy modelling is used to identify the spatial extent of two broad communities of habitat-forming megabenthos phototrophs and heterotrophs. Models were generated using combinations of geophysical substrate properties derived from multibeam bathymetry and environmental data derived from Bio-ORACLE, combined with georeferenced occurrence records of mesophotic coral communities from autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle and SCUBA surveys. Model results are used to estimate the total amount of mesophotic coral reef habitat on the GBR. RESULTS: Our models predict extensive but previously undocumented coral communities occurring both along the continental shelf-edge of the Great Barrier Reef and also on submerged reefs inside the lagoon. Habitat suitability for phototrophs is highest on submerged reefs along the outer-shelf and the deeper flanks of emergent reefs inside the GBR lagoon, while suitability for heterotrophs is highest in the deep waters along the shelf-edge. Models using only geophysical variables consistently outperformed models incorporating environmental data for both phototrophs and heterotrophs. MAIN CONCLUSION: Extensive submerged coral reef communities that are currently undocumented are likely to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef. High

  14. Objective quality of life, optimism, and social-juridical variables, as predictive ones of the subjective quality of life in disarmed Colombian persons

    OpenAIRE

    Velasco Salamanca, Ruth Marcela; Londoño Pérez, Constanza

    2011-01-01

    The goal of this research was to identify predic- tive psychosocial factors of the subjective quality of life in a group of 60 people, with ages between 19 and 57, from both sexes, included in the program of demobilization and social inclusion of the Pro- grama de la Alta Consejería para la Reintegración Social y Económica de Personas y Grupos Alzados en Armas en Colombia. this research was a predic- tive correlational descriptive study. the Question- naire of optimism/Pessimism was used to a...

  15. The usefulness of the International Diabetes Federation and the National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III definitions of the metabolic syndrome in predicting coronary heart disease in subjects with type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Peter C; Kong, Alice P; So, Wing-Yee; Yang, Xilin; Ho, Chung-Shun; Ma, Ronald C; Ozaki, Risa; Chow, Chun-Chung; Lam, Christopher W; Chan, Juliana C N; Cockram, Clive S

    2007-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive value for coronary heart disease (CHD) of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definition (with Asian criteria for central obesity) of the metabolic syndrome with existing criteria of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) in Chinese subjects with type 2 diabetes. Subjects with type 2 diabetes and without macrovascular diseases or end-stage renal disease were categorized by the criteria of the IDF and the NCEP ATP III. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, coronary revascularization, heart failure, and death related to CHD. Of 4,350 patients (aged 54.4 +/- 13.4 years; median follow-up period 7.1 [interquartile range 5.2-8.5] years), 65.9% had metabolic syndrome according to either IDF or NCEP ATP III criteria. The NCEP ATP III definition identified metabolic syndrome in 786 subjects (18.1%) who did not fulfill the criteria of the IDF. HDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure were predictors of CHD after adjustment for other confounding factors. Compared with subjects without metabolic syndrome, the IDF criteria failed to predict CHD (hazard ratio 1.13 [95% CI 0.86-1.48], P = 0.374). In contrast, the NCEP ATP III definition (2.51 [1.80-3.50], P < 0.001) predicted an increased risk of CHD with the NCEP-only group having the highest risk (2.49 [1.66-3.73], P < 0.001). With established type 2 diabetes, the IDF definition of the metabolic syndrome failed to identify a subgroup of patients who had the highest risk for CHD. Practitioners must recognize the appropriate setting for its application.

  16. Can current crop models be used in the phenotyping era for predicting the genetic variability of yield of plants subjected to drought or high temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parent, Boris; Tardieu, François

    2014-11-01

    A crop model with genetic inputs can potentially simulate yield for a large range of genotypes, sites, and years, thereby indicating where and when a given combination of alleles confers a positive effect. We discuss to what extent current crop models, developed for predicting the effects of climate or cultivation techniques on a reference genotype, are adequate for ranking yields of a large number of genotypes in climatic scenarios with water deficit or high temperatures. We compare here the algorithms involved in 19 crop models. Marked differences exist in the representation of the combined effects of temperature and water deficit on plant development, and in the coordination of these effects with biomass production. The current literature suggests that these differences have a small impact on the yield prediction of a reference genotype because errors on the effects of different traits compensate each other. We propose that they have a larger impact if the crop model is used in a genetic context, because the model has to account for the genetic variability of studied traits. Models with explicit genetic inputs will be increasingly feasible because model parameters corresponding to each genotype can now be measured in phenotyping platforms for large plant collections. This will in turn allow prediction of parameter values from the allelic composition of genotypes. It is therefore timely to adapt crop models to this new context to simulate the allelic effects in present or future climatic scenarios with water or heat stresses. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Adult Treatment Panel III 2001 but not International Diabetes Federation 2005 criteria of the metabolic syndrome predict clinical cardiovascular events in subjects who underwent coronary angiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saely, Christoph H; Koch, Lorena; Schmid, Fabian; Marte, Thomas; Aczel, Stefan; Langer, Peter; Hoefle, Guenter; Drexel, Heinz

    2006-04-01

    The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) has recently established a worldwide consensus definition of the metabolic syndrome. No prospective data are available on the cardiovascular risk associated with this new metabolic syndrome definition. In a prospective study of 750 coronary patients, we recorded vascular events over 4 years. From our patients, 37.3% (n = 280) had the metabolic syndrome according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) definition and 45.5% (n = 341) according to the IDF definition. The metabolic syndrome as defined by the ATPIII criteria significantly predicted vascular events (adjusted hazard ratio 1.745 [95% CI 1.255-2.427]; P = 0.001), but the metabolic syndrome as defined by IDF criteria did not (1.189 [0.859-1.646]; P = 0.297). Accordingly, event-free survival was significantly lower among patients who fulfilled the ATPIII but not the IDF criteria than among those who met the IDF but not the ATPIII criteria (P = 0.012). The metabolic syndrome as defined by ATPIII criteria remained significantly predictive of vascular events after adjustment for type 2 diabetes but not after additional adjustment for the metabolic syndrome components high triglycerides and low HDL cholesterol. These lipid traits in turn proved significantly predictive of vascular events even after adjustment for the metabolic syndrome. The ATPIII definition of the metabolic syndrome confers a significantly higher risk of vascular events than the IDF definition. However, among angiographied coronary patients, even the ATPIII definition of the metabolic syndrome does not provide prognostic information beyond its dyslipidemic features.

  18. Factors predicting quality of life in a group of Polish subjects with multiple sclerosis: accounting for functional state, socio-demographic and clinical factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papuć, Ewa; Stelmasiak, Zbigniew

    2012-05-01

    Quality of life (QoL) has presently a firmly established position as an important endpoint in medical care. Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurological disease with considerable effect on patients' QoL. QoL of MS patients from many European countries has already been assessed but little is known on health-related QoL of Polish subjects with MS. Few studies have taken into consideration multiple predictors of QoL. The aim of this study was to elicit the most relevant factors that determine QoL of Polish group of MS patients. Socio-demographic and clinical factors as well as the influence of disability level were analyzed in this study. 173 MS patients and 86 healthy controls underwent assessment using the Mini Mental Status Examination, WHOQOL-100, Beck Depression Inventory and Fatigue Severity Scale. Data were analyzed by a stepwise linear regression analysis. MS patients had significantly worse global QoL and worse QoL in physical and psychological health domains, lower level of independence, worse social relations and were less satisfied with the surrounding environment they lived in compared with healthy controls (p<0.05). MS subjects had also higher level of depression and fatigue compared to healthy controls (p<0.05). The study determined that the strongest predictors of global QoL of Polish MS patients were depression, disability level and fatigue. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. GIS-BASED EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF ECOLOGICAL SITUATION IN THE COAL MINING AREAS WITH A CRITICAL TECHNOGENIC IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Pyankov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper highlights the features of the creation of the basin GIS, developed to support the environmental monitoring, assessment and forecasting of negative consequences in the areas of technogenic disaster (on the example of abandoned Kizel coal basin, located in Perm Region, Russia. The world experience of applying GIS-technologies for solving environmental problems of coal-mining regions is also being discussed. The information basis and structure of the cartographic and attributive database of the Kizel coal basin GIS are presented. The main tasks of creating the GIS, including inventory of man-made impact sources, identification of the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of pollutants, quantification and mapping of the territory ecological status, forecasting of the environmental situation and planning of environmental measures have been identified. A system of spatial criteria for the integrated assessment of the territory ecological status within coal basins is proposed, which will allow monitoring of environmental changes and identifying areas with the critical environmental situation. These criteria include the pH value and the sulfates concentration in the streams, the complex of heavy metals, the species composition of microorganisms in surface waters, the area of degraded land and dead forest stands. The degree of negative impact of the abandoned coal mines on streams and groundwater is described, and the priority pollutants are identified.The estimates of the extent of contaminated streams, as well as areas of potential contamination of floodplain lands have been obtained using LANDSAT satellite imagery data. The significance of the creation of the algorithms for the integration of heterogeneous spatial information (ground-based and remote sensing observations for compiling synthetic maps that objectively estimate the ecological situation has been noted. 

  20. SUBJECT INDEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Subject Index. Variation of surface electric field during geomagnetic disturbed period at Maitri, Antarctica. 1721. Geomorphology. A simple depression-filling method for raster and irregular elevation datasets. 1653. Decision Support System integrated with Geographic. Information System to target restoration actions in water-.

  1. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunrong Mi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  2. The E-wave propagation index (EPI): A novel echocardiographic parameter for prediction of left ventricular thrombus. Derivation from computational fluid dynamic modeling and validation on human subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harfi, Thura T; Seo, Jung-Hee; Yasir, Hayder S; Welsh, Nathaniel; Mayer, Susan A; Abraham, Theodore P; George, Richard T; Mittal, Rajat

    2017-01-15

    To describe the derivation and validation of a novel echocardiographic metric for prediction of left ventricle thrombus (LVT). Computational fluid dynamic modeling using cardiac CT images was used to derive a novel echocardiography-based metric to predict the presence of LVT. We retrospectively reviewed 25 transthoracic echocardiograms showing definite LVT (LVT group). We then randomly selected 25 patients with LVEF ≥55% (Normal EF group) and 25 patients with severe cardiomyopathy (CMP) with LVEF ≤40% without evidence of LVT (CMP group). The E-wave Propagation Index (EPI) was measured as the E-wave velocity time-integral divided by the LV length. An EPI>1 indicates penetration of the mitral jet into the apex whereas an EPIEPI was compared between the three groups. Crude and adjusted odd ratios of EPI and LVT association were also measured. Mean EPI was highest for the normal EF group and lowest in the LVT group (1.7 vs. 0.8; pEPI also differed significantly between LVT and CMP groups (0.8 vs. 1.2; pEPI EPI EPI of less than 1 is an independent predictor of LVT formation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The Initial Area Under the Curve Derived from Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Improves Prognosis Prediction in Glioblastoma with Unmethylated MGMT Promoter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Y S; Ahn, S S; Lee, H-J; Chang, J H; Kang, S-G; Kim, E H; Kim, S H; Lee, S-K

    2017-08-01

    Although perfusion and permeability MR parameters have known to have prognostic value, they have reproducibility issues. Our aim was to evaluate whether the initial area under the time-to-signal intensity curve (IAUC) derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging can improve prognosis prediction in patients with glioblastoma with known MGMT status. We retrospectively examined 88 patients with glioblastoma who underwent preoperative dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging. The means of IAUC values at 30 and 60 seconds (IAUC30mean and IAUC60mean) were extracted from enhancing tumors. The prognostic values of IAUC parameters for overall survival and progression-free survival were assessed with log-rank tests, according to the MGMT status. Multivariate overall survival and progression-free survival models before and after adding the IAUC parameters as covariates were explored by net reclassification improvement after receiver operating characteristic analysis for 1.5-year overall survival and 1-year progression-free survival and by random survival forest. High IAUC parameters were associated with worse overall survival and progression-free survival in the unmethylated MGMT group, but not in the methylated group. In the unmethylated MGMT group, 1.5-year overall survival and 1-year progression-free survival prediction improved significantly after adding IAUC parameters (overall survival area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.86; progression-free survival area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.74-0.76) to the model with other prognostic factors (overall survival area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.81; progression-free survival area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.69; P < .05 for all) except in the case of IAUC60mean for 1-year progression-free survival prediction (P = .059). Random survival forest models indicated that the IAUC parameters were the second or most important predictors in the

  4. Enhancement of motor learning by focal intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) of either the primary motor (M1) or somatosensory area (S1) in healthy human subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platz, Thomas; Adler-Wiebe, Marija; Roschka, Sybille; Lotze, Martin

    2018-01-01

    Motor rehabilitation after brain damage relies on motor re-learning as induced by specific training. Non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS) can alter cortical excitability and thereby has a potential to enhance subsequent training-induced learning. Knowledge about any priming effects of NIBS on motor learning in healthy subjects can help to design targeted therapeutic applications in brain-damaged subjects. To examine whether complex motor learning in healthy subjects can be enhanced by intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) to primary motor or sensory cortical areas. Eighteen young healthy subjects trained eight different arm motor tasks (arm ability training, AAT) once a day for 5 days using their left non-dominant arm. Except for day 1 (baseline), training was performed after applying an excitatory form of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (iTBS) to either (I) right M1 or (II) S1, or (III) sham stimulation to the right M1. Subjects were randomly assigned to conditions I, II, or III. A principal component analysis of the motor behaviour data suggested eight independent motor abilities corresponding to the 8 trained tasks. AAT induced substantial motor learning across abilities with generalisation to a non-trained test of finger dexterity (Nine-Hole-Peg-Test, NHPT). Participants receiving iTBS (to either M1 or S1) showed better performance with the AAT tasks over the period of training compared to sham stimulation as well as a bigger improvement with the generalisation task (NHPT) for the trained left hand after training completion. Priming with an excitatory repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation as iTBS of either M1 or S1 can enhance motor learning across different sensorimotor abilities.

  5. Risk Assessment and Prediction of Heavy Metal Pollution in Groundwater and River Sediment: A Case Study of a Typical Agricultural Irrigation Area in Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The areas with typical municipal sewage discharge river and irrigation water function were selected as study sites in northeast China. The samples from groundwater and river sediment in this area were collected for the concentrations and forms of heavy metals (Cr(VI, Cd, As, and Pb analysis. The risk assessment of heavy metal pollution was conducted based on single-factor pollution index (I and Nemerow pollution index (NI. The results showed that only one groundwater sampling site reached a polluted level of heavy metals. There was a high potential ecological risk of Cd on the N21-2 sampling site in river sediment. The morphological analysis results of heavy metals in sediment showed that the release of heavy metals can be inferred as one of the main pollution sources of groundwater. In addition, the changes in the concentration and migration scope of As were predicted by using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS. The predicted results showed that As will migrate downstream in the next decade, and the changing trend of As polluted areas was changed with As content districts because of some pump wells downstream to form groundwater depression cone, which made the solute transfer upstream.

  6. NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF BUBBLE SIZE AND INTERFACIAL AREA CONCENTRATION IN THE LIQUID BATH OF AN ENTRAINED-FLOW COAL GASIFIER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Wu

    Full Text Available Abstract A CFD-ABND coupling model was used to study the flow characteristic of gas-liquid two-phase flow in the process of gas passing through the liquid bath of a water-coal-slurry entrained-flow gasifier. In this model, an average bubble number density (ABND approach was employed and merged with the two-fluid model. A two-phase version of the RNG k-ε turbulence model was used for the liquid and gas, respectively. Comparisons of computational results with experimental data are done. The results show that the gas gathers along the outer wall of the cooling pipe and rises. The higher turbulent kinetic energy of gas and liquid, the larger bubble and the higher interfacial area concentration exist mainly near the exit and outer wall of the cooling pipe. The existence of a separator inserter is very helpful to strengthen the turbulence between gas and liquid; this can reduce the bubble diameter and increase the interfacial area effectively.

  7. Crash Risk Prediction Modeling Based on the Traffic Conflict Technique and a Microscopic Simulation for Freeway Interchange Merging Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shen Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the traffic safety of freeway interchange merging areas based on the traffic conflict technique. The hourly composite risk indexes (HCRI was defined. By the use of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV photography and video processing techniques, the conflict type and severity was judged. Time to collision (TTC was determined with the traffic conflict evaluation index. Then, the TTC severity threshold was determined. Quantizing the weight of the conflict by direct losses of different severities of freeway traffic accidents, the calculated weight of the HCRI can be obtained. Calibration of the relevant parameters of the micro-simulation simulator VISSIM is conducted by the travel time according to the field data. Variables are placed into orthogonal tables at different levels. On the basis of this table, the trajectory file of every traffic condition is simulated, and then submitted into a surrogate safety assessment model (SSAM, identifying the number of hourly traffic conflicts in the merging area, a statistic of HCRI. Moreover, the multivariate linear regression model was presented and validated to study the relationship between HCRI and the influencing variables. A comparison between the HCRI model and the hourly conflicts ratio (HCR, without weight, shows that the HCRI model fitting degree was obviously higher than the HCR. This will be a reference to design and implement operational planners.

  8. Allometric Models to Predict Aboveground Woody Biomass of Black Locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L. in Short Rotation Coppice in Previous Mining and Agricultural Areas in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christin Carl

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Black locust is a drought-resistant tree species with high biomass productivity during juvenility; it is able to thrive on wastelands, such as former brown coal fields and dry agricultural areas. However, research conducted on this species in such areas is limited. This paper aims to provide a basis for predicting tree woody biomass for black locust based on tree, competition, and site variables at 14 sites in northeast Germany that were previously utilized for mining or agriculture. The study areas, which are located in an area covering 320 km × 280 km, are characterized by a variety of climatic and soil conditions. Influential variables, including tree parameters, competition, and climatic parameters were considered. Allometric biomass models were employed. The findings show that the most important parameters are tree and competition variables. Different former land utilizations, such as mining or agriculture, as well as growth by cores or stumps, significantly influenced aboveground woody biomass production. The new biomass models developed as part of this study can be applied to calculate woody biomass production and carbon sequestration of Robinia pseudoacacia L. in short rotation coppices in previous mining and agricultural areas.

  9. Combination of separation methods and data mining techniques for prediction of anomalous areas in Susanvar, Central Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghannadpour, Seyyed Saeed; Hezarkhani, Ardeshir; Roodpeyma, Taraneh

    2017-10-01

    Structural method U-statistics is an eminent technique for delineating geochemical patterns; on the other hand, it is worthwhile to introduce Mahalanobis distance approach decreasing the background effects and intensifying the correlation factor of points as a powerful non-structural method. Undoubtedly, predicting the anomalous values could play an important role in the inchoate stages of exploration. Therefore, it is essential to find the most accurate approach to separate anomalous values from background and afterward use the results to anticipate each arbitrary sample. In this study, results of the combination between U-statistics & Mahalanobis distance algorithms are used to distinguish anomalous values from background on an accurate point of view. Then, three data mining methods will be applied to produce practical equations and finally determine anomalous values. Separation of geochemical anomalies, based on the combination of the U-statistics and the Mahalanobis distance approaches, would be done; then, under the influence of their results and the other parameters - x and y coordinates and Au and As grades - three data mining methods, K nearest neighbor (K-NN), decision tree, and naïve Bayes classifier, have been applied. For this purpose after separation of anomalous values according to the number of 603 samples by applying above combination, the data mining methods would be utilized to anticipate anomalous values for each unknown point. Finally, in order to judge about the designed networks, training samples would be considered as test samples under the application of the networks. Therefore according to the results, decision tree method would appear as the more powerful approach than the other due to far fewer number of wrong estimated samples and approving high accuracy of the designed network, that is, resubstitution error for this network is noted only 0.0232. Noteworthy is that the numbers of wrong estimated samples are 30 and 61 and the rates of

  10. Development of weather based rice yellow stem borer prediction model for the Cauvery command rice areas, Karnataka, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.R. Prasannakumar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Relationship of weather parameters viz., maximum temperature (Tmax, °C, minimum temperature (Tmin, °C, rainfall (RF, mm, morning relative humidity (RH1, %, evening humidity (RH2, %, and sunshine hours (SSH, during seven years at Mandya (Karnataka was individually explored with peaks of rice yellow stem borer (YSB Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker light trap catches. The peaks of YSB trap catches exhibited significant correlation with Tmax of October 3rd week, Tmin of November 1st week, RF of October 2nd week, RH1 of November 4th and RH2 of November 1st week, and SSH of October 4th week. Weather-based prediction model for YSB was developed by regressing peaks of YSB light trap catches on mean values of different weather parameters of aforesaid weeks. Of the weather parameters, only Tmin, RF, and RH1 were found to be relevant through stepwise regression. The model was validated satisfactorily through 8-year independent data on weather parameters and YSB light trap catch peaks (R2 = 0.90, p < 0.0002.

  11. Predicting the population-level impact of mitigating harbor porpoise bycatch with pingers and time-area fishing closures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Beest, Floris; Kindt-Larsen, Lotte; Bastardie, Francois

    2017-01-01

    and protected marine top predator, involves the use of pingers (acoustic alarms that emit underwater noise) and time-area fishing closures. Although these mitigation measures can reduce harbor porpoise bycatch in gillnet fisheries considerably, inference about the long-term population-level consequences...... noise avoidance behavior in high-quality foraging habitat negatively affected individual survival and the total population size. When both bycatch mitigation measures were implemented simultaneously, the negative impact of pinger noise-induced sub-lethal behavioral effects on the population was largely...... before enforcing their widespread implementation. Individual-based simulation models, such as the one presented here, offer an efficient and dynamic framework to evaluate the impact of human activities on the long-term survival of marine populations and can serve as a basis to design adaptive management...

  12. 180-day screening study for